Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[trog100]

The stock market is crashing and looks like BTC is going to be back down below $20k.

yes i think you are correct..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

2% for an index such as Nasdaq is actually a pretty big movement.

But it's nothing like a crash. However, if the trends continue, cryptocoin could be facing another one.

There is no correlation between the two.

yes i think you are correct..

He is not.

 

[trog100]

But it's nothing like a crash. However, if the trends continue, cryptocoin could be facing another one.

There is no correlation between the two.


He is not.

the crash is just beginning.. both bitcoin and the stock markets are in the process of heading lower..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

the stock markets are in the process of heading lower..

I'm not seeing that. In many of my stocks are up on the week. I expect they'll be further up in a fortnight. Where as cryptocoin is down and has been trending that way for over a week.

 

[Bomby569]

I'm not seeing that. In many of my stocks are up on the week. I expect they'll be further up in a fortnight.

you're in for disappointment

 

[lexluthermiester]

you're in for disappointment

We'll see. I'm betting not.

Just an FYI, as of this posting on 30day performance, S&P and Nasdaq are both up by about 3% and are plateauing. BTC and ETH are both down by about 16% and falling. So no, they're not linked and never have been. Stock market is fine. Crypto market is not.

 

[dragontamer5788]

We'll see. I'm betting not.

Just an FYI, as of this posting on 30day performance, S&P and Nasdaq are both up by about 3% and are plateauing. BTC and ETH are both down by about 16% and falling. So no, they're not linked and never have been. Stock market is fine. Crypto market is not.

We're in a bipolar economic situation. Given the layoffs, I think its safe to call it a "tech recession". But the rest of the economy is going so strong that it looks like the Fed is going to still increase the FFR.

I think it is reasonable (especially with SIVB news) for a techie / venture capitalist type to think that the world is falling apart right now. But the US economy in general is far larger than just technology. It all depends on perspective. The tech world is doing extremely poorly this past week, and news of further rate hikes is only going to make things worse for them.

Where you live, who you work for, etc. etc. It matters a lot right now, different industries are seeing very different things right now.

 

[trog100]

the stock markets are still in the red bitcoin has moved up a tad and is now back to just over 20K..

gold is moving up.. not a lot but at least its stopped going down..

trog

 

[dragontamer5788]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634243380250296321

-----------

With SIVB dying today (FDIC just took it over), what kind of haircut are we looking at for SIVB's customers? (Which includes USDC) ??

Silvergate and SIVB are now dead. This is a huge blow to USDC.

 

[LFaWolf]

You can draw your own conclusion regarding the correlation -
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-continues-correlation-with-nasdaq-100-thus-far-in-2023
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/20...-comes-back-as-economic-factors-roil-markets/

 

[Bomby569]

We'll see. I'm betting not.

Just an FYI, as of this posting on 30day performance, S&P and Nasdaq are both up by about 3% and are plateauing. BTC and ETH are both down by about 16% and falling. So no, they're not linked and never have been. Stock market is fine. Crypto market is not.

SVB just went down, expedited meeting of the Fed on monday. I don't think this bet will last long

 

[dragontamer5788]

SVB just went down, expedited meeting of the Fed on monday. I don't think this bet will last long

This is starting to get into general economics rather than cryptocoin, but the Jobs report came in higher than expected. (Or perhaps: unemployment is lower than expected).

I continue to argue that the "rest of the economy" is doing excellently. Its just the tech-industry right now that's having issues (including the cryptocoin world, as a subset of tech investors)

 

[lexluthermiester]

I think its safe to call it a "tech recession".

That's a fair conclusion and I agree.

 

[Bomby569]

That's a fair conclusion and I agree.

i think they are just the first to feel the blow because they were also the ones that most benefited from the bubble, it doesn't mean it's a tech recession by any means. Credit Suisse and SVB tells another story

Anyway i think this just puts crypto value in perspective, ie, this is not a crypto specific crash (just like i said with tech, crypto felt the blow harder at first because they grew a lot more too) or even a tech specific crash, even if they seem like it.

 

[trog100]

a few more bank failures might even turn bitcoin into a safe haven asset..

trog

 

[mb194dc]

Continue to think crypto "currencies" are intrinsically worthless vehicles whose only purpose is speculation. Buy, sell for more that's it. There's no utility and no return for holding.

Block chain technology itself is possibly a different matter. There are some applications where it could be superior to the existing solution.

 

[Bomby569]

Continue to think crypto "currencies" are intrinsically worthless vehicles whose only purpose is speculation. Buy, sell for more that's it. There's no utility and no return for holding.

Block chain technology itself is possibly a different matter. There are some applications where it could be superior to the existing solution.

i got news for you people and corporations make a living speculating in gold, oil, corn, fiat currencies, etc... adding absolutely no value to it

 

[80-watt Hamster]

i got news for you people and corporations make a living speculating in gold, oil, corn, fiat currencies, etc... adding absolutely no value to it

All of those things have broad utility, which is what makes them worth trade and speculation in the first place. The utility of crypto is still largely hypothetical. You can make jewelry, plating, or circuits with gold. Oil is a useful source of energy. Corn provides valuable calories. You can pay your bills with fiat. Yeah, you can do the latter indirectly with crypto by trading and turning it into more fiat than you started with, but crypto is thus far mostly a financial and technical playground.

 

[Bomby569]

All of those things have broad utility, which is what makes them worth trade and speculation in the first place. The utility of crypto is still largely hypothetical. You can make jewelry, plating, or circuits with gold. Oil is a useful source of energy. Corn provides valuable calories. You can pay your bills with fiat. Yeah, you can do the latter indirectly with crypto by trading and turning it into more fiat than you started with, but crypto is thus far mostly a financial and technical playground.

Sure of course you're right, but i was not comparing corn to crypto, just saying that both suffer from speculation.
You can pay stuff (lots of) with crypto but sure it isn't the same as fiat, not going to deny that. BUT crypto's value is transparent, supply and demand and limited stock. Fiat on the other hand you can just pull more out of your ass (printers in overdrive) and that kind of dilutes it's value creating all kinds of problems, the ones we are living now for example. When we had the gold standard that was another story but that's in the past.

Crypto started because we paid for the bank bayllouts (not only but it was a driver), and the problem is very much a reality again, like this week again. There is a cost to you and me from using fiat.

 

[mb194dc]

There are hard assets that don't have elastic supply, gold, silver, any commodity in fact.

Fiat is designed to have a flexible supply, so the economy can grow. The gold standard was tried and it lead to a deflationary depression.

Whilst one crypto chain might have fixed supply, there can be an infinite amount of them. Given there's nothing behind it.

 

[Bomby569]

Whilst one crypto chain might have fixed supply, there can be an infinite amount of them. Given there's nothing behind it.

Don't buy dog coins then, i guess like with everything there are good and bad crypto. There is even venezuela currency, not all fiat is the same. Isn't it the same thing?

This now really is offtopic, but the "the economy has to grow indefinitely" with limited resources might be a problem no? it is in my eyes.

 

[Steventh]

My first contribution to this new found forum is this pointer:

Regarding our overall concerns with the market due to last weeks big story, look here for calming.

JPMorgan Chase & Co

$133.65

2.54%

+3.31 Today
After Hours:
$134.10
(0.34%)+0.45
Closed: Mar 10, 8:59:44 PM UTC-4 · USD · NYSE

 

[80-watt Hamster]

This now really is offtopic, but the "the economy has to grow indefinitely" with limited resources might be a problem no? it is in my eyes.

For sure. There's a reckoning coming, but I sure don't know when or what it's going to look like.

 

[dragontamer5788]

This now really is offtopic, but the "the economy has to grow indefinitely" with limited resources might be a problem no? it is in my eyes.

Why is that any more of a problem than "BTC must go up over time" ?? The economy growing over time makes sense. As our population grows, we'll need more goods, services, and equipment to sustain that population.

10% more people probably means 10% more corn eaten, and 10% more gasoline used and 10% more computers. Doubly so if we aim to improve the standard of living (ie: 10% population growth, but 50%+ more computers made, since computers improve lives)

Meanwhile, the cryptocoin world is trying to sell us on the idea of exponential growth, above-and-beyond what is reasonable... and despite some 13+ years of BTC, it still feels like a complicated, scammy environment to conduct trade.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now up over 21K.. lets say its recovering nicely.. i await tomorrows stock market opening with interest.. he he..

trog