Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[R-T-B]

Hi,
50-50 is pretty good odds hehe

Better than a casino but I'd still not invest in it.

 

[trog100]

You always have that opinion. It only happens 50% of the time...

i follow the situation as it is.. over this year bitcoin has moved from 16K to 30K.. i see no reason why it wont go much higher..

if you can find anything thats done better over this same time period let me know.. its not a quick spike ether.. just a nice steady upwards trend.. eth has done pretty much the same..

things have changed..bitcoin seems to have lost its volatility.. nothing is certain but i think the steady upwards trend will continue..

its all monopoly money to me.. i dont need it or spend it.. but lets just say my small bitcoin and eth stash has gone up by around 20K during the last three or four months..

trog

 

[cvaldes]

i follow the situation as it is.. over this year bitcoin has moved from 16K to 30K.. i see no reason why it wont go much higher..

if you can find anything thats done better over this same time period let me know.. its not a quick spike ether.. just a nice steady upwards trend.. eth has done pretty much the same..

BTC has increased +76% YTD. That's pretty good for the selected timeframe.

However, automatically thinking that this is the best performer out there is foolish. This is an excellent example of how dangerous confirmation bias is.

This person made zero attempt at research.

An active trader has tools that will help identify top performers given certain criteria.

Even taking guesses can work. Just scanning through the FANG+ stocks it turns out that Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) is up +78.5% YTD.

Of course, not everyone has those trading tools at their disposal. They do have an Internet search engine so typing in "best performing stocks ytd" is accessible to everyone.

And here's just one article:

https://money.usnews.com/investing/stocks/top-performers

showing one stock that's up +200%. Unsurprisingly it's an AI stock. But of those top ten, the lowest has a +117% gain which blows doors on BTC.

And it took me all of five seconds to do this simple research, something that this TPU forum participant didn't bother to do.

That's confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias has probably caused more problems for the human race than any other human shortcoming. Let this be a precautionary tale not to fall into the pitfall of ignoring basic research efforts like this person committed.

 

[trog100]

BTC has increased +76% YTD. That's pretty good for the selected timeframe.

However, automatically thinking that this is the best performer out there is foolish. This is an excellent example of how dangerous confirmation bias is.

This person made zero attempt at research.

An active trader has tools that will help identify top performers given certain criteria.

Even taking guesses can work. Just scanning through the FANG+ stocks it turns out that Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) is up +78.5% YTD.

Of course, not everyone has those trading tools at their disposal. They do have an Internet search engine so typing in "best performing stocks ytd" is accessible to everyone.

And here's just one article:

https://money.usnews.com/investing/stocks/top-performers

showing one stock that's up +200%. Unsurprisingly it's an AI stock. But of those top ten, the lowest has a +117% gain which blows doors on BTC.

And it took me all of five seconds to do this simple research, something that this TPU forum participant didn't bother to do.

That's confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias has probably caused more problems for the human race than any other human shortcoming. Let this be a precautionary tale not to fall into the pitfall of ignoring basic research efforts like this person committed.

whilst it maybe not the "best" performer over my chosen time frame (this current year) its pretty good there isnt much doubt about that.. and if you call typing a google search query like you say good research .. any fool can do that.. as for putting much faith in the answer.. again get any fool can do that.. i say no more..

debating with the numerous bitcoin nay-sayers in this thread aint a wise thing to do.. so its something i am not going to do..

trog

 

[ZenZimZaliben]

I find it entertaining to revisit this thread occasionally, just to relish in the deafening silence of its inhabitants when crypto is thriving. But the moment it drops a measly 3%, these so-called experts swarm in with their pointless charts and grandstanding. It's hilarious how they claim to know everything about crypto while spewing numbers that align with their crypto agenda of disdain. If they were as intelligent as they believe themselves to be, then crypto should have been obliterated a hundred times by now, based on their meta-predictions. Yet, here we are, with crypto still standing tall. Frankly, this thread should be renamed to "Crypto-Hate Discussion" or "Mad-I-Didn't-Buy-Crypto-Earlier". Oh, the saltiness is real!

 

[cvaldes]

whilst it maybe not the "best" performer over my chosen time frame (this current year) its pretty good there isnt much doubt about that.. and if you call typing a google search query like you say good research .. any fool can do that..

And yet you didn't even STFW. You posited that nothing performed like BTC in 2023. Hell, I didn't even use an Internet search engine to find Meta's performance. I just glanced at its YTD chart at Yahoo Finance. That's not an obscure little stock, it's a large cap tech behemoth.

All you basically do is post where BTC and ETC are trading at after they've had a decent short term run. Anyone can see that with their own eyes on a price chart which is what they would do anyhow to confirm your post.

It's utterly unsurprising that laziness on your part has unveiled clear confirmation bias.

Heh heh.

We know that you desperately want crypto to return to its glory as the talk of the town. The current investing climate makes that highly unlikely for the next few years. As we all know here, cryptos follow the general technology stock market (particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index).

Talk up crypto if you want but don't make the mistake of putting it on a pedestal as the best performing investment. Because clearly it is not, neither YTD nor TTM. Note that the latter is an especially useful time period for investors because long-term capital gains for stocks are taxed at a lower rate for US federal income. Crypto gains are taxed as ordinary income.

Also, it should be pointed out that there are hefty exchange fees for crypto transactions, in the range of 2-3% per transaction. That means if you buy BTC at $100 and sell at $200, you probably paid $6-9 in fees. So that hundred dollar gain is now a pre-tax $91-94 ROI. A lot of brokerages don't have trading fees for stock transactions any more (except for the nominal SEC fee which is a penny or so per $1000) so buying Dodgy Bros. stock at $100 and selling at $200 nets a pre-tax $99.99 ROI.

All of this is elementary and further goes to show the insane level of confirmation bias there is in this discussion thread.

But feel free to continue posting. We know you will itch to post the next time BTC takes a little pop.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Yet, here we are, with crypto still standing tall.

You know my real life buddy lost everything he put into the Lunacoin / Celsius stuff last year, right? Fortunately, he pulled his stuff out of FTX, but he also got hit with the Voyager issues. The problem with cryptocoin ain't got nothing on the price. Its that the entire culture is full of rugpulls... or as known to older terminology "conmen" and "scammers".

Also, now that cryptocoiners have lost so much money, there's simply no more advertising pushes like Superbowl 2022 / FTX Arena / etc. etc. They can't afford the ads, so naturally this topic is going to die down a bit as there's less hype. There's going to be more buzz when Matt Daemon says "Fortune favors the Bold", but the cryptocoin world just don't got anything like that right now.

-----------

My overall focus these days has gone towards the general economy by the way. I've got this topic here: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/...ccounts-bonds-stocks-options-and-more.298118/

I think I was more interested in overall economic / market trends, rather than focusing purely on cryptocoins. With the bond market as highly inverted as it is, and with Fed meeting notes being as exciting / volatile as they are, its more than enough "fun" for me trying to figure out if banks are gonna be 5% next month or maybe 4%. Economically speaking, tech-bros are doing pretty bad (another 4000+ laid off at Meta. Facebook pulling out of "Metaverse", etc. etc.). There's just less money to spend right now, so I think fewer people are going to care about a volatile asset like BTC right now.

 

[ZenZimZaliben]

Sorry for your friend, that sucks. I don't buy OTC Stocks just like I don't buy sh|t coins. Because unless you are on the inside you will lose. Never buy on hype...especially if Hollywood gets involved.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Sorry for your friend, that sucks. I don't buy OTC Stocks just like I don't buy sh|t coins. Because unless you are on the inside you will lose. Never buy on hype...especially if Hollywood gets involved.

He didn't buy shitcoins. He just put his BTC in Celsius. It never came out. And though it was a substantial 5-digit loss, it was money he could afford to lose at least. So he's not ruined by any stretch of the imagination. Still hurts though.

That being said, 18% returns was too good to be true, but nominally, this was still an American company promising to hold onto your BTC for you. It just turns out that Celsius had a bunch of money in Lunacoin, so when that went down, it pulled down everyone else's money in that firm.

But that's the nature of the cryptocoin world. These firms / exchanges pop up and die on a regular basis. If you put your money (BTC) in the wrong spot it all disappears faster than you can blink. Mt. Gox, Celsius, FTX, etc. etc. He never touched Lunacoin or shitcoins himself. He just happened to touch a company that was touching Lunacoin, and that's all you need to lose 100% of the money invested.

 

[lexluthermiester]

when crypto is thriving.

But it's not thriving it's plateauing and little more.

 

[ZenZimZaliben]

Staking is a risk and they were not FDIC/SIPC insured so even more risk. 18% was absurd. After the MTGox situation I pulled everything to offline wallet except minimal for trading on exchanges.

 

[lexluthermiester]

After the MTGox situation I pulled everything to offline wallet except minimal for trading on exchanges.

This was very wise!

 

[trog100]

bitcoin has taken a small pull back to just over 29K.. eth follows suit..

it could pull back more or recover and continue up... the next couple of days will tell..

trog

 

[LFaWolf]

I own 1 BTC and 1 ETH . Bought them when they were in $25k and $1.5k back then. Didn't time it best when they were falling to even lower, but my goal is for BTC to hit $300k and ETH at 5 figures. I think the horizon is 10 - 15 years, more or less. These are the riskiest assets that I own but it is okay as the goal is to invest 1% of your money into the riskiest assets for a big payday. I am not really a crypto or BTC bull. After seeing meme stocks, multiple cycles of crypto rise and crashes, I feel that there are enough investor that will be willing to buy anything. With each rise and crash, BTC still ends up higher, Maybe the next rise will hit $100k and crash back down to $50k. Rinse and repeat.

Just a side note reading from Bloomberg - the current BTC run is fueled by small retail investors. No institution buyers yet. I don't have much faith of this current run to have a long running leg. We will see.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin has dropped a bit more but seems to have leveled out just above 28K... it could drop a bit more still but i think it will go sideways for a while before resuming its upwards trend.. i could be wrong of course.. he he..

trog

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now at 27740.. it dropped a little more than i thought it would but now seems to have recovered and is moving upwards again..

trog

 

[trog100]

after a couple of sideways day bitcoin is now at 28300 and looks to be moving upwards.. i dont think it will be long before it hits 30K again..

trog

 

[R-T-B]

I find it entertaining to revisit this thread occasionally, just to relish in the deafening silence of its inhabitants when crypto is thriving. But the moment it drops a measly 3%, these so-called experts swarm in with their pointless charts and grandstanding. It's hilarious how they claim to know everything about crypto while spewing numbers that align with their crypto agenda of disdain. If they were as intelligent as they believe themselves to be, then crypto should have been obliterated a hundred times by now, based on their meta-predictions. Yet, here we are, with crypto still standing tall. Frankly, this thread should be renamed to "Crypto-Hate Discussion" or "Mad-I-Didn't-Buy-Crypto-Earlier". Oh, the saltiness is real!

I'm only mad at what crypto has become. It's an ugly mockery of what it could have theoretically been.

That's my take. I WAS in early, and regret those days. Not because I lost money or anything. I didn't. But I know what it cost us.

EDIT: oops, this is price discussion, sorry. Well, that was my price.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin shot up around 2K in a day and hit a tad below 30K but too rapid a move up usually results in a pull back.. after a brief sideways move bitcoin rapidly lost a big chunk of its rise equally quickly but its back up to 29K now and looks like continuing its upward trend..

i think we are seeing the beginnings of the next bull run but as always i could be wrong.. he..he..

i dont follow charts just watch whats going and comment accordingly..

trog

 

[ShiBDiB]

bitcoin shot up around 2K in a day and hit a tad below 30K but too rapid a move up usually results in a pull back.. after a brief sideways move bitcoin rapidly lost a big chunk of its rise equally quickly but its back up to 29K now and looks like continuing its upward trend..

i think we are seeing the beginnings of the next bull run but as always i could be wrong.. he..he..

That just sounds like market manipulation to me, nothing about the crypto/general economy state right now screams bull run.

 

[dragontamer5788]

That just sounds like market manipulation to me, nothing about the crypto/general economy state right now screams bull run.

IMO, its not market manipulation, but lower volumes.

Low volumes cause high volatility. As fewer, and fewer, people use BTC exchanges, the faster the price moves because the market depth isn't as deep.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now just below 29K and seems to be moving sideways.. i thought it would keep going up but it seems to have leveled out around the 29K mark..

gold is up now at 2048 an oz.. the stock markets dont look that healthy..

trog

 

[trog100]

bitcoin is now at 26K after a slow move down from around 29K... i cant find any real reason for this other than general market fear..

its gone lower than i expected it to and could go lower.. how low is anybodies guess or it could move sideways for a bit and slowly start to move up again.. it really is anybodies guess..

gold and silver have also taken a hit.. gold back down to near 2K.. i dont see any logic in any of this but it is what it is..

trog

 

[LFaWolf]

bitcoin is now at 26K after a slow move down from around 29K... i cant find any real reason for this other than general market fear..

its gone lower than i expected it to and could go lower.. how low is anybodies guess or it could move sideways for a bit and slowly start to move up again.. it really is anybodies guess..

gold and silver have also taken a hit.. gold back down to near 2K.. i dont see any logic in any of this but it is what it is..

trog

This is why bitcoin is the riskiest asset and it is recommended to put in a small percentage of your investment that you can afford to lose. Disney was down yesterday because earnings missed and subscribers loss. Google was up yesterday because of AI integration in their search engine. Bitcoin? No one knows. It is 100 percent speculative.
I got my money and and I am going to hold on to it for a while. My goal is to perhaps double it in 5 years. Perhaps I will have to hold on to it for 20 years. We will see.

 

[Bomby569]

This is why bitcoin is the riskiest asset and it is recommended to put in a small percentage of your investment that you can afford to lose. Disney was down yesterday because earnings missed and subscribers loss. Google was up yesterday because of AI integration in their search engine. Bitcoin? No one knows. It is 100 percent speculative.

that's not true at all, when a country facilitates or makes it harder the use of bitcoin it goes up or down accordingly
it reacts to ftx scandal and others on the crypto space by going down
it reacts to the global economy, it suffered just like the SPY or NASDAQ when things got bad
it benefits like gold for example when banks go tits up
etc

and all assets have speculation, next your going to tell me Tesla was worth more then all other car companies, in the world, combined, sure. It's all perfectly rational.