Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[LFaWolf]

that's not true at all, when a country facilitates or makes it harder the use of bitcoin it goes up or down accordingly
it reacts to ftx scandal and others on the crypto space by going down
it reacts to the global economy, it suffered just like the SPY or NASDAQ when things got bad
it benefits like gold for example when banks go tits up
etc

and all assets have speculation, next your going to tell me Tesla was worth more then all other car companies, in the world, combined, sure. It's all perfectly rational.

Cryptos were up when silvergate was winding down its business. How do you explain that?
As for stock price, it is based on future earnings growth. For years, Amazon has a P/E of over 1,000 and many people like you said that it was way overvalued, and look at where it is now…
Tesla is the market leader in EV. Its valuation depends on whether you are bullish if it can continue its growth and dominate the competitions. Many investors certainly think so.
One major difference between stock and crypto - with stock you can calculate and predict a price target based on future earning growth. Crypto? I don’t know how you can do that.

 

[Bomby569]

Cryptos were up when silvergate was winding down its business. How do you explain that?
As for stock price, it is based on future earnings growth. For years, Amazon has a P/E of over 1,000 and many people like you said that it was way overvalued, and look at where it is now…
Tesla is the market leader in EV. Its valuation depends on whether you are bullish if it can continue its growth and dominate the competitions. Many investors certainly think so.
One major difference between stock and crypto - with stock you can calculate and predict a price target based on future earning growth. Crypto? I don’t know how you can do that.

stocks were going up as fiat banks were crashing, explain that?
sure there are other things besides just fundamentals that explain price, that's my point
Tesla doesn't follow the rule of the earning you were talking about, there is expectations that can't be measures in numbers, also my point
not everything is stocks, crypto isn't a stock, you can't calculate a price target on future earnings growth on coffee or silver, and yet they have a value and go up and down. And i know commodities have a use, you can expect demand to go up, etc... crypto don't, but still there are grey areas, the price of gold is not directly correlated to it's use on rings or electronics or earnings, there is speculation, they are used as a value reserve. Damn people speculate with wheat, and there was that commodity recently that the trade was stopped because the price went insane for no apparent reason, can't remember the name now.

my point is everything is not that black and white.

 

[LFaWolf]

stocks were going up as fiat banks were crashing, explain that?
sure there are other things besides just fundamentals that explain price, that's my point
Tesla doesn't follow the rule of the earning you were talking about, there is expectations that can't be measures in numbers, also my point
not everything is stocks, crypto isn't a stock, you can't calculate a price target on future earnings growth on coffee or silver, and yet they have a value and go up and down. And i know commodities have a use, you can expect demand to go up, etc... crypto don't, but still there are grey areas, the price of gold is not directly correlated to it's use on rings or electronics or earnings, there is speculation, they are used as a value reserve. Damn people speculate with wheat, and there was that commodity recently that the trade was stopped because the price went insane for no apparent reason, can't remember the name now.

my point is everything is not that black and white.

You mean tech stocks? They are not affected by a bank failure. However, all the regional banks and the big banks were falling when SVB failed. But Silvergate was a crypto bank. cryptos should fall when Silvergate announced it was winding down its business.

Again, nothing can explain Amazon's stock price when it had a 4-figure P/E ratio. Tesla is the same.

Of course nothing is black and white when it comes to investing. There are many factors, including human emotion, investors sentiment, global and macro economics, are in play. Investors buy the stock, believing it is a good investment at the time of buying. How the stock performs thereafter is difficult to judge. However, between the 2, stock and crypto, stock has a better predictability.

 

[Bomby569]

stock has a better predictability.

as a trader i would say that sentence is very misleading

 

[LFaWolf]

as a trader i would say that sentence is very misleading

As an "investor" it is 100% accurate. Subscribe to Bloomberg terminal and you will get more info than you ever need to make an informed decision. Don't be swayed by the sudden market movement. Buy into a great company at a great price and hang on to it. I started with $5k many years ago, and now I can retire today if I want to but I plan to work some more years. Proper understanding of what moves a stock is critical in good investing.

 

[dragontamer5788]

stocks were going up as fiat banks were crashing, explain that?

How many people lost any money in fiat banks? $0 of losses. In fact, all the bank closures happened over the weekend when the banks were closed anyway and were completely fixed by Monday morning, so it was 100% seamless, the typical person didn't even have to know anything happened.

How many people lost money in Celsius, Voyager, and FTX?

You see, when a crisis comes up, we can you know, do something about it in the fiat system. You can't do anything in the cryptocoin system. The "money" is just gone. Now maybe the system fails but we're not in a situation where the crisis has led to any meaningful failure yet. Everyone still has their money, FDIC insurance hasn't cost taxpayers any money yet (its all funded by the banks). Etc. etc. We're worried but we can do things to mitigate the problem or even solve the problem before it meaningfully affects peoples lives.

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Yeah, it sucks that the FDIC had to do something for the first time in a decade. But that's what they are there for and why they run these wargames / tests / stress tests / practice runs of bank takeovers. So that when a bank takeover happens, it happens really quickly and efficiently without anyone skipping a beat.

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The only thing that crashed, for good reason, during the bank closures were banking stocks. Because when a bank is closed by FDIC, the shareholders get a big fat $0. (As the system is designed: shareholders are the risk-takers. If the company does so poorly that it needs to be taken over, you should lose all your money).

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

How many people lost any money in fiat banks? $0 of losses. In fact, all the bank closures happened over the weekend when the banks were closed anyway and were completely fixed by Monday morning, so it was 100% seamless, the typical person didn't even have to know anything happened.

How many people lost money in Celsius, Voyager, and FTX?

You see, when a crisis comes up, we can you know, do something about it in the fiat system. You can't do anything in the cryptocoin system. The "money" is just gone. Now maybe the system fails but we're not in a situation where the crisis has led to any meaningful failure yet. Everyone still has their money, FDIC insurance hasn't cost taxpayers any money yet (its all funded by the banks). Etc. etc. We're worried but we can do things to mitigate the problem or even solve the problem before it meaningfully affects peoples lives.

---------

Yeah, it sucks that the FDIC had to do something for the first time in a decade. But that's what they are there for and why they run these wargames / tests / stress tests / practice runs of bank takeovers. So that when a bank takeover happens, it happens really quickly and efficiently without anyone skipping a beat.

---------

The only thing that crashed, for good reason, during the bank closures were banking stocks. Because when a bank is closed by FDIC, the shareholders get a big fat $0. (As the system is designed: shareholders are the risk-takers. If the company does so poorly that it needs to be taken over, you should lose all your money).

That is some lovely nonsense right there.

FIAT is safe because it was made so, so you think fedcoin won't be made so too, , via whatever it takes.

crypto is way better then fiat was this many years past inception all because people worked to make it so.

who pays?, YOU ALLWAYS PAY, all be it in the end, this is the way.

 

[dragontamer5788]

who pays?, YOU ALLWAYS PAY, all be it in the end, this is the way.

I paid $0 for SIVB's mistakes.

My friend paid $x0,000 to Celsius due to Celsius's Lunacoin bullshit (he had $0 in Lunacoin, he only had an account in Celsisus) and won't get his money back.

Now please explain to me, how exactly Cryptocoin was better in this situation.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

I paid $0 for SIVB's mistakes.

My friend paid $x0,000 to Celsius due to Celsius's Lunacoin bullshit (he had $0 in Lunacoin, he only had an account in Celsisus) and won't get his money back.

Now please explain to me, how exactly Cryptocoin was better in this situation.

No.

I didn't say crypto was better/ good

I said FIAT is good because we(people) made it so, it was a bit shit when someone could just run up and rob your shell chain(when fiat was cryptos age), or when the banker decided he didn't have a "note" for you.
it's not great that a man with a bat, gun or knife or computer can Still, steal some quite easily.

But we , well the f in Man made it work.

crypto is a baby, I'm fairly sure will mature too.

 

[dragontamer5788]

crypto is a baby, I'm fairly sure will mature too.

But why? The entire point of crypto is to avoid the regulations and traditions made in the public banking sector.

IE: People who use cryptocoins are literally self-selected people who do not want the protections we've created over the past 200 years. And anyone who wants "legitimate" money could just use... ya know? Money?

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

But why? The entire point of crypto is to avoid the regulations and traditions made in the public banking sector.

IE: People who use cryptocoins are literally self-selected people who do not want the protections we've created over the past 200 years. And anyone who wants "legitimate" money could just use... ya know? Money?

or ya know applepay, paypal wave their foor kings brand of phone at Mcdonalds cashier.

because you know, the man made it so? no cash EVER required, Already.

so with effort you'll love fedcoin , because the man will make it so, i think.

im not here to convince you, you do you.

your legitimate TAT was made legitimate, and safe, don't get excited though others ways have since also been made safe like paypal its a minor step on to fedcoin from here.

 

[R-T-B]

The entire point of crypto is to avoid the regulations and traditions made in the public banking sector.

That... is who uses it now. But no, that wasn't always its point. And it shouldn't be its point if it wants to survive.

 

[Outback Bronze]

That... is who uses it now. But no, that wasn't always its point. And it shouldn't be its point if it wants to survive.

Care to elaborate? Would love to hear what you have to say about this.

I remember reading when you first started trading BTC (and mined) you were doing it for fun which I think is pretty cool.

From my understanding BTC was born during the 2009 economic crash with uncertainty (for me anyways) around its true birth.

Satoshi Wept: How Crypto Replayed the 2008 Financial Crisis (coindesk.com)

Bitcoin Was Not a Response to the Financial Crisis of 2008 - CoinDesk

Interesting Satoshi quote: “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.”

So, in summary, I would really like to hear why YOU think it was born.

Thanks.

 

[R-T-B]

Care to elaborate? Would love to hear what you have to say about this.

Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoins mysterious founders alias) was pretty against the crypto anarchist faction. So much so, that one of his last comments before leaving, was to get upset over some group (I think it was the EFF) accepting crypto saying "it will send the wrong message." and that crypto should be apolitical, or something such.

This can be googled, but the original sources are long gone. I believe there's a very old wired story/article that goes into this.

He wanted it to be used as a currency, not an ideology. He may have been against breaches of trust in fiat, but he did not think of his currency as something that did not need management or guidance or any of that crypto anarchist stuff that took off. Many of his comments indicate such.

Personally the nuttery around modern crypto and the idea of it rewriting society or something is part of the reason I jumped off the boat.

 

[Outback Bronze]

part of the reason I jumped off the boat.

Do you think perhaps this is the reason why he (Satoshi) so called "jumped off the boat" also?

 

[R-T-B]

Do you think perhaps this is the reason why he (Satoshi) so called "jumped off the boat" also?

Maybe. I don't claim to know his motivations, but it was rather coincidental that that was really his last big post, a rant against a rather innocent lobbying group accepting crypto. It doesn't suggest him thinking crypto should be a political movement.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I'm seeing signs of an impending crash, likely motivated by the potential US Federal budget default. While it's not time to panic, it IS time to carefully weigh ones options... This is effecting all markets, not just Cryptocoin.

 

[dragontamer5788]

That... is who uses it now. But no, that wasn't always its point. And it shouldn't be its point if it wants to survive.

That's fair.

But I've been waiting since like 2017 or so for the "old community" to come back (2017 is roughly the last time I remember major technical hurdles being discussed and/or attempted to be solved). I definitely remember when cryptocoins were less about avoiding regulations and more about discovering, playing, and trying to invent new things.

The speed of discoveries has slowed dramatically, mostly because no one talks about the hard science / engineering problems needed to fix problems.

I'm seeing signs of an impending crash, likely motivated by the potential US Federal budget default. While it's not time to panic, it IS time to carefully weigh ones options... This is effecting all markets, not just Cryptocoin.

Hmmm, its like US Treasuries 1-month from now are way riskier than US Treasuries 2-months from now. This is inverted as all hell right now, and very unusual.

Don't wanna leave the topic too much (we do have a general finance topic), but yes, the US Treasuries are acting in a way they've never before. And the Debt Ceiling debate is the best explanation for this behavior.

 

[lexluthermiester]

That's fair.

But I've been waiting since like 2017 or so for the "old community" to come back (2017 is roughly the last time I remember major technical hurdles being discussed and/or attempted to be solved). I definitely remember when cryptocoins were less about avoiding regulations and more about discovering, playing, and trying to invent new things.

The speed of discoveries has slowed dramatically, mostly because no one talks about the hard science / engineering problems needed to fix problems.


View attachment 295669
Hmmm, its like US Treasuries 1-month from now are way riskier than US Treasuries 2-months from now. This is inverted as all hell right now, and very unusual.

Don't wanna leave the topic too much (we do have a general finance topic), but yes, the US Treasuries are acting in a way they've never before. And the Debt Ceiling debate is the best explanation for this behavior.

People keep saying the pandemic is over, but it's effects will be felt for decades to come. It's time to bite the bullet, spend wisely and invest wisely. Cryptocoin is not wise currently and many are starting to realize it. Not a good place to have money currently. While I don't wish people to lose money, it's going to happen, and cryptocoin is very likely going to first.

 

[trog100]

People keep saying the pandemic is over, but it's effects will be felt for decades to come. It's time to bite the bullet, spend wisely and invest wisely. Cryptocoin is not wise currently and many are starting to realize it. Not a good place to have money currently. While I don't wise people to lose money, it's going to happen, and cryptocoin is very likely going to first.

cryptocoin covers way too wide a field to mean much..

all i care about are bitcoin and eth the rest are mainly junk..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

the rest are mainly junk..

That's kinda my point.

 

[dragontamer5788]

cryptocoin covers way too wide a field to mean much..

all i care about are bitcoin and eth the rest are mainly junk..

trog

The problem is that typical people don't wanna hold wallets, especially right now as BTC transaction fees are $30+.

Bitcoin Average Transaction Fee Daily Insights: Bitcoin Statistics | YCharts

In depth view into Bitcoin Average Transaction Fee including historical data from 2009 to 2024, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

EDIT: looks like tx fee is now around $5. Still too high for most purposes but better than $30.

Centralizing BTC to mitigate transaction fees, or at least make them more predictable, is one of the only ways forward. But that opens you up to losing all your BTC in Mt Gox or FTX.

The community needed to switch to BTC-Cash 5 years ago to cut down on transaction costs... Or come up with some other mitigation.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin is still stuck in a sideways mode around 27K.. people keep talking about a move up or down but bitcoin dosnt seem to want to comply..

trog

 

[Bomby569]

bitcoin is still stuck in a sideways mode around 27K.. people keep talking about a move up or down but bitcoin dosnt seem to want to comply..

trog

considering the money printing stopped and people have less money because of inflation, it's still an impressive value to be stuck at

 

[trog100]

considering the money printing stopped and people have less money because of inflation, it's still an impressive value to be stuck at

i think so..

trog