For sure until the baseline gpu is a 4090. Beyond that both of us are just speculating either scenario could play out.
Just to be clear when I say path tracing I'm not talking about the current Nvidia biased rendition that you need a 4080 at 1080p and a 4090 at 1440p just to run satisfactory I'm talking about at some point a more open better version of it. Even thought it's been 6 years since the first RTX gpus we are still in the infancy of real time ray tracing capable hardware developers could make it look substantially bettet almost movie quality VFX level but nobody could run it currently faster than 1 frame per second and probably slower than that.
And sure graphics do not make games I much rather play a game with meh graphics but awesome gameplay but a generational impressive game visually with amazing gameplay would always be ideal.
Nier and Dragon age origins are good examples of this each are two of my favorite games ever made both looked like shit, still if either had generation defining visuals they'd have been even better.
Just to be clear I still think path tracing is at least 2-3 generations away before we see it in every game and honestly by then hopefully somthing better replaces it.
Screen space reflections are terrible and accurate lighting and materials that accurately reflect light are the biggest issues with non RT implementations. Can developers fake it with old techniques sure but you basically have to render the image twice which is even more demanding than RT.
Even faces and skin texture look way better when lighting and shadows properly map to them.
People act like RT is somthing new or that Nvidia invented it it's honestly just the next step movies have been doing it for a long time with offline rendering.
As
@Vayra86 Says above though art direction and gameplay will always be king but thinking real time RT isn't the future of game engines is probably wishful thinking at best.
Same thing with Gsync now everybody does it, same with DLSS now everybody does it, same with RT now all 3 gpu makers and even mobile hardware do it, frame gen you guessed it.
Nvidia sets the trend and everyone copies it in an ideal world we get an adaptive sync situation that works great on all hardware but other companies need to make a equivalent not worse implementation first.
The Shader based solutions are awesome fallbacks for weaker hardware and consoles though although the PS5 pro might be stronger than any current amd gpu at RT and have substantially better Upscaling which shouldn't be a thing AMD should be leading with that in the Desktop space.
Either way we are all just along for the ride none of us really know what the future of gaming holds as it is companies care less and less about it and game publishers rarely take any chances anymore. The cost of game development has gotten out of hand. So if somthing doesn't change we might only see 1-2 games a year even pushing the envelope forward as it is. This year we've had BMW and HB2 that look impressive last year we had Alan Wake 2 and Phantom liberty that were doing anything mildly impressive so it's definitely slowing way down to a handful of games a year at best.
That new Warhammer game looks great though without pushing any new technology rendering wise so maybe there is still hope lol it's just not somthing I have any interest in playing.
As you say though lots needs to still improve and I agree that should be more the focus. Texture quality is still bad even in games like BMW, character models and voice acting in the majority of games is still wooden AF, LODs are still obvious, and please developers if not using a decent RT technique for reflections don't use a really bad SSR implementation the RE engine is a poster child for this not only is RT terrible but the rasterized version is even worse even though the game otherwise looks decent.
Regardless it's still fun speculating and I honestly love seeing other people's opinions on it Regardless of if we agree are not. I think in our own way we all want gaming to get better even if we don't agree on what that actually means or how we get there.