Quick Denuvo DRM Cracks Cost Game Publishers 20% in Revenue, According to Study

[londiste]

But its crucial to it, because the study tries to quantify the 'value of Denuvo' for publishers. The real story here is that Volckmann measures something that is not measurable, because you can't look into people's heads. The unstoppable human drive to capture emotions and behaviour in statistics never really works out all too well. We're not machines, and we're not statistical averages. We're people who get influenced by thousands of factors every day, local, external, internal, regional, global...

The study analyzes game releases and how their sales go during the period of 12 weeks after release. Especially in light of when game was cracked - meaning when it became possible to pirate it. What do human heads, emotions, and thousands of factors have to do with this?

2) Games actually benefit[!] from piracy in terms of later conversions, thus increasing sales by 24%

Conversion rate is 24%. Its worth digging for exactly what that means but some of the nitpickers in this thread should have a field day with that study given the methodology

 

[noel_fs]

Assuming that someone who opened a cracked game would also buy it if it wasnt cracked is insane, and doubling down assuming that if they had bought it they also wouldnt have refunded it after 20 minutes is even more insane.

so what, drm free games are losing 40% revenue then? they must be really dumb right, oh btw and my 40% figure is accurate, independantly of how good or bad the game is they are losing 40% of renevue cause they didnt buy denuvo protection

just seems to me like someone got paid to paint a very specific picture, there is so many variables you cant just say denuvo cracks is costing money to companies when the fact that using denuvo is also costing them money cause people despise it.

 

[Vayra86]

The study analyzes game releases and how their sales go during the period of 12 weeks after release. Especially in light of when game was cracked - meaning when it became possible to pirate it. What do human heads, emotions, and thousands of factors have to do with this?

Ah, so the same game got cracked, but then didn't in the same period of time post release?

I love how the study can measure a multidimensional world here.

 

[claylomax]

This is blatantly untrue. GOG titles have ZERO DRM and deals with very little piracy. Sure, there is some piracy(there's always going to be), but it's such a small factor it doesn't effect their bottom line.

Denuvo is lies. They fabricate numbers to push their crap product. It is shady, deceitful humbuggery at it's worst. Pure garbage.

GOG games don't need to be cracked because like you say they don't have DRM; anybody can download the game and upload it anywhere. This is why there are dozens of websites with the name GOG on them where you can get the games for free. So not very little piracy then.

 

[Vayra86]

Assuming that someone who opened a cracked game would also buy it if it wasnt cracked is insane, and doubling down assuming that if they had bought it they also wouldnt have refunded it after 20 minutes is even more insane.

so what, drm free games are losing 40% revenue then? they must be really dumb right, oh btw and my 40% figure is accurate, independantly of how good or bad the game is they are losing 40% of renevue cause they didnt buy denuvo protection

just seems to me like someone got paid to paint a very specific picture, there is so many variables you cant just say denuvo cracks is costing money to companies when the fact that using denuvo is also costing them money cause people despise it.

This is a Denuvo marketing story, simple as. Denuvo initially sold itself as the uncrackable DRM. Then it got cracked, now they sell themselves as the 'temporarily uncrackable DRM', and they're very desperate to show us that it actually works, for a while. Their livelihood is on the line.

I don't think the study's conclusions in isolation are wrong. But they are wrong when applied to support the thesis that this somehow helps the bottom line of publishers. The study is simply incapable of measuring that, because the game didn't get released both with and without Denuvo, nor with and without a cracked Denuvo, at the same time.

Its really that simple.

And then there's this little nugget:

The bottom part of this says about games in layman's terms: 'good games sell anyway'. Even if you got it illegally, if you keep playing, you'll start paying. This relates strongly to emotional and ethical effects: it just doesn't feel right not to pay for something that you really like. You'll also consider that if you want more of it, you need to fund it. And the latter is the exact reason we have such a vibrant indie industry now. Its all purely based on goodwill and those studios barely even consider Denuvo, its far more profitable to get community support.

 

[MacZ]

The study analyzes game releases and how their sales go during the period of 12 weeks after release. Especially in light of when game was cracked - meaning when it became possible to pirate it. What do human heads, emotions, and thousands of factors have to do with this?

Correction : of games protected by Denuvo, and no other games.

These games are most probably AAA games and have indeed lots to lose from piracy, because they are the top dogs.

On the other hand, fairly unknown, underdog and 'challenger' games would probably benefit from piracy, as a way to make their games known to a wider audience.

 

[_roman_]

I read it already in german: https://www.pcgameshardware.de/DRM-...5362/News/Denuvo-Studie-Umsatz-Crack-1457448/

DRM, having always an active internet connection to run a game, windows only, no offline installer, not easy payment method, steam store are my main motivation to not buy any games.

One of the free AMD games I played had denuvo. The game constantly crashed and the graphic experience was low value in January 2024.
Star wars Jedi survivor: https://steamcommunity.com/app/1774580/discussions/0/4753075133423155267/

--

All those studies are only valid for the database. My gaming is not in those statistics. I'm not a steam gamer. I do not always played on microsoft windows or microsoft device operating system in past 35 years of pc gaming.

GOG titles have ZERO DRM

Many Gog titles have no drm.

I read sometimes that they have some garbage in them. I do not know which title. I read it on several games in the past.

-- In the past I paid for many games. I got a CD-Case or a floppy disk / with some paper and a nice box. A digital temporary license give me nothing to look at. I still have my old cds and I sometimes look at them.
-- Well my suggestion. A decent quality usb stick with 20 - 50 pages in paper in a nice box. All offline executeable. As Windows is not my main Operating system for a long time there is another big reason to not buy any game. Some Windows Games are not executable anymore.

 

[londiste]

Ah, so the same game got cracked, but then didn't in the same period of time post release?
I love how the study can measure a multidimensional world here.

86 different Denuvo-protected games initially released on Steam between September 2014 and the end of 2022. That sample includes many games where Denuvo protection endured for at least 12 weeks (when new sales tend to drop off to "negligible" amounts for most games) and many others where earlier cracks allowed for widespread piracy at some point.

 

[WatchThe80s]

I want to see a Space Marine 2 and SW Outlaws revenue comparion if you want to prove that piracy takes 20%.

 

[lexluthermiester]

GOG games don't need to be cracked because like you say they don't have DRM; anybody can download the game and upload it anywhere. This is why there are dozens of websites with the name GOG on them where you can get the games for free. So not very little piracy then.

Except no one uses them and they don't last very long.. So yes, very little.

Many Gog titles have no drm.

NO games on GOG have DRM, at all, in any form. DRM free is GOG's major ethos. Clearly you know little about them.

 

[LittleBro]

Denuvo is evil.

You can get games during sales, there are sales on Steam every 2-3 months. My experience is that newly released game is sometimes so buggy that it is barely playable. A good question is why such bugged title was released at first place - in other words - why people have to pay for bugs, what the hell is quality assurance dept. there for. Having legal access to games on platforms like Steam will keep your games updated and that means playable (sometimes).

You may think that newest titles simply deserve to be pirated, as they tend to be bug-filled. Piracy as a punishment for developers. There are other reasons for piracy, too. Demos are no longer being published, gamers are actually buying a cat in the sack today as they can't try the game first. This specifically applies to goddamn microtransaction king Ubisoft. After having wonderful time with Far Cry 5 which I bought on sale for less than $15, I decided to buy Far Cry 6 just a month after release. Since then, I'm not buying games at the time of release and will wait until they are at reasonable price for what they offer. Far Cry 6 is a terrible arcade-like mess. Compared to FC5 it is even more hardware demanding game even with RT turned off, although I really can't see why. Maybe I'm blinded but FC6 looks way way worse than FC5 (clarity, level of detail, environment design), just take a look at water physics and you'll see. I am able to understand raising trends of piracy with newest titles, because gamers are often disappointed, meaning game experience and trailer/news differ dramatically.

That does not apply to Gen Z gamers, they will pay for any P'o'S (e.g. Battlefield 2042).

Ubisoft deserves to be pirated, that's for sure. EA too. I stopped being a pirate due to mentioned reason regarding updates.

 

[Shihab]

The study is quite long(117 pages), but TLDR is as follows:
1) on page 14 there's a summary
2) Games actually benefit[!] from piracy in terms of later conversions, thus increasing sales by 24%

https://felixreda.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/displacement_study.pdf

Interesting research. Three problems to point out tho:
1- It's based on self-report surveys.
2- The 24% figure has a 22% standard error (so real value could be 2% for all you know).
3- The explanation the authors guessed(?) tell a different story to what you're getting at. To quote: "This positive effect of illegal downloads and streams on the sales of games may be explained by the industry being successful in converting illegal users to paying user." In other words, it could be used as a proof against the claim that those who pirate weren't going to pay to begin with (if you were willing to look past that this is, again, a guess).
(I say guess because my attention span ain't long enough to go through 10 pages atm, leave 307. :|)

I have real life examples though, myself and people I knew. Never heard of someone pirating games routinely and then buying one if it cant be cracked, they just play a different game instead or wait as it will be cracked eventually. I consider that far more credible than this report.

I expect movie piracy dropped in the early years of netflix, and has likely gone up again now that market is super fragmented.

The biggest cause of lost sales is people mis-selling or mis-marketing their products, or the product been bad in the first place.

Make a good product, price it low enough, make it available everywhere, boom you get good sales, basic common sense.
Make a dud product, price it high, do staggered regional release, staggered platform release, get low sales. But instead blame piracy.

Again: No data, no analyses = opinions.
I'm inclined to agree to the bolded part tho. As a matter of fact, the study silentbogo cited sings a similar tune. To quote:
"When interpreting the estimates, it needs to be kept in mind that the estimated effects are averages. In particular, there is a difference between people illegally downloading or streaming large and small numbers of creative content. If the sample is restricted to people with large numbers of illegal transactions (above 100 tracks for music and above 20 transactions for films/TV-series, books and games respectively), zero displacement rates can be concluded for any model specification"

Do, however, keep in mind that serial pirates are not the average pirate. And that anecdotal evidence is no evidence.

 

[AusWolf]

Putting Denuvo in your game costs you 20% in revenue

This!

Pirating doesn't cost publishers a damn thing, because I can guarantee that 99% of people who pirate games would still not buy those games even if pirating wasn't an option.

 

[_roman_]

NO games on GOG have DRM, at all, in any form. DRM free is GOG's major ethos. Clearly you know little about them.

These are not my posts in the first place. These are other people who are most likely upset. Fake claims. gog.com is just a fraud in my point of view.
I hope no offensive taken.

1)

No Man's Sky isn't fully DRM-free, page 41 - Forum - GOG.com

Download the best games on Windows & Mac. A vast selection of titles, DRM-free, with free goodies, and lots of pure customer love.

www.gog.com

2)
Same issues which annoys me with epic game store. Some game crash here when they have no active internet connection
It's up to discussion if another software is drm or not. in my point of view the software had some sort of constraint.
reddit

3)
reddit 2

 

[JWNoctis]

NO games on GOG have DRM, at all, in any form. DRM free is GOG's major ethos. Clearly you know little about them.

To be fair, there have been quite a few scandals, where games were released on GOG with third-party DRMs and/or store integrations.

I just hope they'd mostly keep their mission statement and stay available, unlike most other DRM-free storefronts of the 2010s.

These are not my posts in the first place. These are other people who are most likely upset. Fake claims. gog.com is just a fraud in my point of view.

no_mans_sky_isnt_fully_drmfree

No Man's Sky isn't fully DRM-free, page 41 - Forum - GOG.com

Download the best games on Windows & Mac. A vast selection of titles, DRM-free, with free goodies, and lots of pure customer love.

www.gog.com

Same issues which annoys me with epic game store. Some game crash here when they have no active internet connection
It's up to discussion if another software is drm or not. in my point of view the software had some sort of constraint.
https://www.reddit.com/r/linux_gaming/comments/16syvvr
I think two quick searches are enough to proof my statement. I hope no offensive taken.

I would not go so far as that.

If a game is freely installable and playable air-gapped offline minus the online features, it is DRM free in my book.

 

[noel_fs]

This is a Denuvo marketing story, simple as. Denuvo initially sold itself as the uncrackable DRM. Then it got cracked, now they sell themselves as the 'temporarily uncrackable DRM', and they're very desperate to show us that it actually works, for a while. Their livelihood is on the line.

I don't think the study's conclusions in isolation are wrong. But they are wrong when applied to support the thesis that this somehow helps the bottom line of publishers. The study is simply incapable of measuring that, because the game didn't get released both with and without Denuvo, nor with and without a cracked Denuvo, at the same time.

Its really that simple.

And then there's this little nugget:

View attachment 367527
View attachment 367528
The bottom part of this says about games in layman's terms: 'good games sell anyway'. Even if you got it illegally, if you keep playing, you'll start paying. This relates strongly to emotional and ethical effects: it just doesn't feel right not to pay for something that you really like. You'll also consider that if you want more of it, you need to fund it. And the latter is the exact reason we have such a vibrant indie industry now. Its all purely based on goodwill and those studios barely even consider Denuvo, its far more profitable to get community support.

yeah thats a whole other story arguably because a lot of people are not willing to pay full price for a lot of what are supposed to be AAA games that are the very bare minimum or just unfinished products but publishers feel entitled to charge full for it.

what often happens is that games start dropping price and people are more willing to be paying customers, but it is definitely correlated with piracy and probably not easy to make statistics on it.


maybe this is an idiotic idea but i think studios should start focusing more on obtaining reliable statistics instead of obsessing on stopping people from playing the game because the unequivocal fact is that when a product is good it also sells independently of drm. personally and i think most people would say yes if they were presented with the option of choosing whether they want to provide anonymous statistical data to the developer when pirating, but probably also paying customers to some extent

i think there is so much potential in this, and yeah im aware its definitely already kind of a thing, i just dont think being valued. i would argue that its kinda already being proven, windows is technically a paid product but its virtually avaliable for free (genuine activations) and microsoft knows about it and microsoft doesnt seem to care, "MAS" has been on github for many years and there never been a problem. this would be again a whole other story with lots of influencing factors.

 

[Tahagomizer]

"See? This study we ordered and paid for shows piracy is bad. It has nothing to do with our predatory practices!".
If buying is not owning, piracy is not stealing and is morally justified. At least this slowly changes, both in law and in people's minds.

 

[aciDev]

For me, it's very simple: if a game has Denuvo, I won't buy it. I'm paying for a product, and I don't want to deal with performance issues or restrictions that Denuvo might bring.

 

[qlum]

Just to clarify in general, this study tries to answer how much protecting individual games affects revenue, not the effects of piracy as a whole.

This is what makes me sceptical about the study's result, 20% sales when a game is not cracked within 12 weeks?

I cannot imagine the group that would buy a game close to launch if it is not cracked. But otherwise would not is large enough to account for 20% revenue loss.

We are only talking about a subset of pirates, so either that subset has to be really large or the majority of players would have to be pirates. I don't think either is true.



According to pc gamer 35% of the surveyed pirate,

PC piracy survey results: 35 percent of PC gamers pirate

50,000 PC gamers told us whether they pirate games, and why.

www.pcgamer.com

According to kommandotech 21% pirate games

Software Piracy Statistics: Not-So-Jolly Rogers Conquer the Internet

Although very damaging, software piracy has proved to be indestructible. Join us and explore a world of software piracy statistics!

kommandotech.com

If these studies are true, a majority of these would be buying the game if it's not cracked I high doubt that.

Alternatively statistics may be scewed towards drm protected single player games in that study being more popular among pirates but even then it would be a stretch.

Shame the original study is not easily accessable.

 

[azrael]

Somewhere (on here I believe) I read: Is piracy really stealing when you do not actually own what you purchase (what we've known for ages, but now have in writing)? Couple that with the fact that Denuvo-"freed" often perform better than the "purchased" version. For me that defintely means: wait for the game to get cheaper and have DRM removed (or buy on GOG).

 

[lexluthermiester]

These are not my posts in the first place. These are other people who are most likely upset. Fake claims. gog.com is just a fraud in my point of view.
I hope no offensive taken.

1)

No Man's Sky isn't fully DRM-free, page 41 - Forum - GOG.com

Download the best games on Windows & Mac. A vast selection of titles, DRM-free, with free goodies, and lots of pure customer love.

www.gog.com

2)
Same issues which annoys me with epic game store. Some game crash here when they have no active internet connection
It's up to discussion if another software is drm or not. in my point of view the software had some sort of constraint.
reddit

3)
reddit 2

To be fair, there have been quite a few scandals, where games were released on GOG with third-party DRMs and/or store integrations.

I just hope they'd mostly keep their mission statement and stay available, unlike most other DRM-free storefronts of the 2010s.

I have been a part of GOG since it's start have never seen even ONE example of DRM, ever. Sure, there are special snowflakes who whine and complain and every little slight under the sun. There will always those type of people. However, GOG does not engage in DRM, actively or passively. Ever. It's against their own mission statement and ethos.

So please stop with that nonsense.

you do not actually own what you purchase

Except that the conclusions of that article are without merit.

 

[JWNoctis]

I have been a part of GOG since it's start have never seen even ONE example of DRM, ever. Sure, there are special snowflakes who whine and complain and every little slight under the sun. There will always those type of people. However, GOG does not engage in DRM, actively or passively. Ever. It's against their own mission statement and ethos.

So please stop with that nonsense.

I seem to recall at least one. The offending game was removed from sale after much loud controversy. I think they learned after that.

 

[Klemc]

An already cracked game (there is a lot) doesn't makes sense to keep it on a ta such money loss for the dev.

Anyone who cracks / pirates a game was never going to buy it to begin with, so is it really lost revenue in that sense?

From my own perspective, performance impacting DRM like DENUVO makes me not want to purchase. I'd rather wait a year, until the Devs remove it and by then I'm getting it at 50% off during a STEAM sale... so that's real lost revenue.

Wait, a pirate doesn't intend to buy ? (not always)... so he won't give money to dev in any case, preotected or not... those who buy could well skip the buy bc of Denuvo implemented (read Steam forums).

So, if pirates are aimed by Denuvo's implementation, that's not about money but just to try to stop them (pirates) being able to play, at which cost, 20% ?

DRM protection looks empty of sense, since games cracked work and are downloaded by guys that won't buy anything anyway.

 

[silentbogo]

Conversion rate is 24%. Its worth digging for exactly what that means but some of the nitpickers in this thread should have a field day with that study given the methodology

The study goes into detail of what it means, but in short they simply ask a few followup questions, like "if you pirated a game and you liked it, would you buy it later?", or "if it's no longer available for free, how much would you pay?" and sort it by price brackets to figure out what's the minimum $$$ a customer is willing to pay(which in the age of Steam and EGS is definitely a flawed question, since 90% or more would say "I'd wait for the next seasonal sale and get it for $10" or something like that). But at least they are considering price brackets, since most studies aggressively push for "full price or nothing" approach in measurements.

There's also not a single study that takes into account a difference in behavior in two situations: a game has a gameplay demo/time trial, or no demo is available. Cause I'm sure most of the so-called pirates download illicit copies of the game just to "try it out", and later convert to a purchase if the game is good.
Not advocating for piracy, but given a recent trend of not only cutting demos out of equation, but also delaying proper reviews and using NDAs and strict "review guidelines" to enforce it, no wonder gamers look for "alternative" sources instead of taking devs and publishers at their word (or paid gaming media outlets giving 11/10 bestgameeva-a-a to every cookie-cutter open-world piece of crap that comes out every month)

 

[Ravenmaster]

People crack denuvo because the DRM itself often lowers fps and causes performance issues in games.