ASML Reports €7.5 Billion Total Net Sales and €2.1 Billion Net Income in Q3 2024

[GFreeman]

Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2024 third-quarter results.

• Q3 total net sales of €7.5 billion, gross margin of 50.8%, net income of €2.1 billion
• Quarterly net bookings in Q3 of €2.6 billion of which €1.4 billion is EUV
• ASML expects Q4 2024 total net sales between €8.8 billion and €9.2 billion, and a gross margin between 49% and 50%
• ASML expects 2024 total net sales of around €28 billion
• ASML expects 2025 total net sales to be between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%

CEO statement and outlook
"Our third-quarter total net sales came in at €7.5 billion, above our guidance, driven by more DUV and Installed Base Management sales. The gross margin came in at 50.8%, within guidance. While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness. Regarding Logic, the competitive foundry dynamics have resulted in a slower ramp of new nodes at certain customers, leading to several fab push outs and resulting changes in litho demand timing, in particular EUV. In Memory, we see limited capacity additions, with the focus still on technology transitions supporting the HBM and DDR5 AI-related demand."



"We expect fourth-quarter total net sales between €8.8 billion and €9.2 billion with a gross margin between 49% and 50% which includes the recognition of the first two High NA systems upon customer acceptance, reflecting progress on imaging, overlay and contrast. ASML expects R&D costs of around €1.1 billion and SG&A costs of around €300 million. We expect full-year 2024 total net sales of around €28 billion. Based on the recent market dynamics as mentioned above, we expect our 2025 total net sales to grow to a range between €30 billion and €35 billion, which is the lower half of the range that we provided at our 2022 Investor Day. We expect a gross margin between 51% and 53%, which is below the range we then provided, mainly related to the delayed timing of EUV demand," said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet.

Update dividend and share buyback program
An interim dividend of €1.52 per ordinary share will be made payable on November 7, 2024.

In the third quarter, we did not purchase any shares under the current 2022-2025 share buyback program.

Details of the share buyback program as well as transactions pursuant thereto, and details of the dividend are published on ASML's website.

Quarterly video interview and investor call
With this press release, ASML has published a video interview in which CFO Roger Dassen discusses the 2024 third-quarter results and outlook for 2024 and 2025. This video and the transcript can be viewed on our website.

An investor call for both investors and the media will be hosted by CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen on October 16, 2024 at 15:00 Central European Time / 09:00 US Eastern Time. Details can be found on our website.



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[MacZ]

Let's not mention the fact that net bookings fell short of expectations (50% short)

Yahoo finance

Stuff happens when you flip off a customer that was 49% of your sales.

 

[Nhonho]

Stuff happens when you flip off a customer that was 49% of your sales.

Which customer was this that represented 49% of sales?

 

[MacZ]

Which customer was this that represented 49% of sales?

China

 

[Visible Noise]

Let's not mention the fact that net bookings fell short of expectations (50% short)

Yahoo finance

Stuff happens when you flip off a customer that was 49% of your sales.

Yes, they should just ignore international treaties

 

[MacZ]

Yes, they should just ignore international treaties

Well, no.

But if they expected to sell, say, 200 lithography machines and sell only 100, you may expect prices of those machines, and what comes out of these machines, to go up.

Also, it may come to the point that producing these machines just may not be feasible from an economy of scale point of view.

Also, China will produce lithography machines of their own that will eventually compete with those of ASML, furthering its problems.

Just a heads up.

 

[mb194dc]

Massive overcapacity building I think. Demand is awful at the front other than for perma loss making LLMs. Wouldn't surprise me if 2025 revenue came in low.

 

[Gungar]

Well, no.

But if they expected to sell, say, 200 lithography machines and sell only 100, you may expect prices of those machines, and what comes out of these machines, to go up.

Also, it may come to the point that producing these machines just may not be feasible from an economy of scale point of view.

Also, China will produce lithography machines of their own that will eventually compete with those of ASML, furthering its problems.

Just a heads up.

They can't even compete with TSMC and you think they are going to compete with ASML? except with intellectual property theft i don't see how.

 

[MacZ]

They can't even compete with TSMC and you think they are going to compete with ASML? except with intellectual property theft i don't see how.

I think that because until recently, they didn't think they would need to compete with TSMC or ASML. They were just content buying from them.

Then someone looked and saw that they overcame everybody in pretty every much domain (exceptions being chips production and landing rockets ... also quantum computing but that has no utility now).

So, since it was not possible to compete, it was decided that China would be sanctioned to hinder them.

And now China has started to build its own capacities.

It's not that they can't. It's that until now it wasn't necessary.

 

[LittleBro]

Next year won't be so positive, I guess, due to embargo on exports to China.

There are some disturbances present right now:

 

[Aleksandar_038]

Yes, they should just ignore international treaties

Which internationak treaties? International include a bit more than USA, which is about to became clear to everyone in next decade...

 

[Visible Noise]

Which internationak treaties?

The Wassenaar Agreement specifically, of which Europe is a party.

Your lesson in international trade treaties for today. I don’t think the USA has anything to worry about if European citizens don’t understand their own trade agreements.

 

[Aleksandar_038]

The Wassenaar Agreement specifically, of which Europe is a party.

Your lesson in international trade treaties for today. I don’t think the USA has anything to worry about if European citizens don’t understand their own trade agreements.

I know that you Americans got used to treat international right the way you see fit, but arm twisting ASML over China is nothing ahort of bullying. As usual.

They will comply by force, but nothing good will come put of it for anyone.

But, I guess that if you are "the boss" you can just use any agreements as you see fit - problem is, all electronics is potentially dual use (to add insult to injury, litography machines hardly can be classified as dual-use according to very same agreement, execept for 'Murica), so you can outright ban all electronics sales to every political opponent or potential oponnent and be done with it.

If you think that western IT superiority can survive withour cheap China electronics (no, it can't and it won't).

If you just listened what EU states haa been saying 1%, everyone would be in much better position, even USA itself.

 

[Visible Noise]

I know that you Americans got used to treat international right the way you see fit, but arm twisting ASML over China is nothing ahort of bullying. As usual.

They will comply by force, but nothing good will come put of it for anyone.

But, I guess that if you are "the boss" you can just use any agreements as you see fit - problem is, all electronics is potentially dual use (to add insult to injury, litography machines hardly can be classified as dual-use according to very same agreement, execept for 'Murica), so you can outright ban all electronics sales to every political opponent or potential oponnent and be done with it.

If you think that western IT superiority can survive withour cheap China electronics (no, it can't and it won't).

If you just listened what EU states haa been saying 1%, everyone would be in much better position, even USA itself.

Maybe we should let ASML sell the ability to make advanced dual use electronics to Russia too. Then the rest of the EU will find out what bullying really is.

 

[Aleksandar_038]

Maybe we should let ASML sell the ability to make advanced dual use electronics to Russia too. Then the rest of the EU will find out what bullying really is.

So, it is political after all
Thanks for admitting openly.

As for bullying, I believe ASML shareholders are extremely happy with American behaviour. I believe that they feel only friendship of Murica iron grip.

Do you think that Dutch will be happy watching their golden eggs just move to USA?

About as same as Germans now when they pay for energy 8x more than before and watch their car induatry falling apart in onslaught of Chinese brands... Must be some agreement, too?

That agreement is called vasslage, and now they pay the price to the Master. Let's not pretend it is anything else. Just plain old bullying.

Back to the topic: ASML for sure hoped that LLM crazy will lead to huge increase in their sales. If that becomes true, that this slip may not hit them too hard. However, if it doesn't, things will not look rosy, for sure. And for now, we still do not know where LLM craze will. Go:for sure everybody keeps pushing it, yet no-one got jackpot yet.

 

[Visible Noise]

So, it is political after all
Thanks for admitting openly.

All treaties are political. Duh.

I answered your original question. Not my problem if you don’t like the answer, comrade.

Which internationak treaties?

 

[Aleksandar_038]

All treaties are political. Duh.

I answered your original question. Not my problem if you don’t like the answer, comrade.

No, I like your answer very much, because it shows how Americans treat international tretaties and standards - only for achieveing their geopolitical goals and nothing more.

Therefore, rest of the world are feeling or starting to feel bullied.

Yet you do not even see problem... That will lead to great things in future.

 

[Vayra86]

No, I like your answer very much, because it shows how Americans treat international tretaties and standards - only for achieveing their geopolitical goals and nothing more.

The thing that gets forgotten I think in your stance here is that everyone has conflicting geopolitical goals. As long as this world revolves around influence and money, this will be the case - money also buys influence. If its not done by states, its done by corporations.

You're basically either winning, or you're losing. Even the countries that have vowed to be 'neutral' within their region have adopted a strategy that makes them 'win' a few things. Europe has tried for a long time, after many wars on its continent, to be that neutral regional entity too, but the moment people started shooting, or the economical powers abroad started damaging us, everyone with two brain cells and speck of gut left knows you won't talk your way out of that again. You need substantial, influential, powerhouses to affect anything. And technology alone, without production capacity, is not a powerhouse. Its just IP you can steal.

That's also what makes ASML a key player. We're actually producing those machines over here. It is also what kept the US a superpower: they've kept actual, physical military superiority over many regions. Everyone else is just hoping they can tag along, or take over somehow, in some way, in due time.

A world based on treaties is possible, but it requires the convinction of all members that conflict ultimately is a worse solution than diplomacy. As long as the world's superpowers do not feel any need to partake in treaties in every way, its a fake reality and underneath that we still have power residing with those that have the biggest guns.

 

[Nhonho]

ASML and TSMC were created by Philips together with other investment companies (with Philips technology) and then Philips sold all the shares it had of both companies. Simply, the biggest blunder in the history of business administration of all time...

 

[Aleksandar_038]

The thing that gets forgotten I think in your stance here is that everyone has conflicting geopolitical goals. As long as this world revolves around influence and money, this will be the case - money also buys influence. If its not done by states, its done by corporations.

You're basically either winning, or you're losing. Even the countries that have vowed to be 'neutral' within their region have adopted a strategy that makes them 'win' a few things. Europe has tried for a long time, after many wars on its continent, to be that neutral regional entity too, but the moment people started shooting, or the economical powers abroad started damaging us, everyone with two brain cells and speck of gut left knows you won't talk your way out of that again. You need substantial, influential, powerhouses to affect anything. And technology alone, without production capacity, is not a powerhouse. Its just IP you can steal.

That's also what makes ASML a key player. We're actually producing those machines over here. It is also what kept the US a superpower: they've kept actual, physical military superiority over many regions. Everyone else is just hoping they can tag along, or take over somehow, in some way, in due time.

A world based on treaties is possible, but it requires the convinction of all members that conflict ultimately is a worse solution than diplomacy. As long as the world's superpowers do not feel any need to partake in treaties in every way, its a fake reality and underneath that we still have power residing with those that have the biggest guns.

Exactly. And I have no problem with that reality - as long as we openly talk about it and present it like you did.

But when we hide behind "international treaties" while we are actually just doing out best to bully weaker one into submission, we open Pandoras box that usually leads to many problems.

 

[Vayra86]

Exactly. And I have no problem with that reality - as long as we openly talk about it and present it like you did.

But when we hide behind "international treaties" while we are actually just doing out best to bully weaker one into submission, we open Pandoras box that usually leads to many problems.

Yeah but thats in hindsight. Those treaties were created because the US dropped a few actual nukes on the planet to end a World War. I think the belief that talk would fix things is real, and I think it can be real. Its easily comparable to raising kids: if you don't tell them what the limits are, they'll happily cross them too, oblivious of the rest of the world around them. Its also strangely similar to how money works: if we believe a coin represents value, with a large enough group, it has become actual money - and if we stop believing it has value, it can collapse overnight.

Apparently, we need to escalate to that point again to reiterate 'fair play'. Just a few generations later we're back at square one it seems, so that paints a pretty picture for the future... Part of the point of my post was that its not just the US or EU playing unfair, we're looking at a China right now that has no trouble destabilizing markets with heavily subsidized products. The reality is that EVERY player that has the chance to play unfair to gain an advantage, will probably try to gain that advantage before playing fair. Or perhaps a bit of both, which still isn't fair play.

Its the human condition, I suppose, and I doubt we'll ever fix it - the only fix I see is sci-fi, which means we'll need to gain capability to colonize planets, so everyone can park a flag on his own nice rock. For however long that lasts.

ASML and TSMC were created by Philips together with other investment companies (with Philips technology) and then Philips sold all the shares it had of both companies. Simply, the biggest blunder in the history of business administration of all time...

Yep, as good as Dutch are in spotting opportunities in trade, they are also in being penny wise pound stupid. If the cost becomes too high we're far too quick to remove it from our balance. And then some X time later we realize we threw away expertise that takes decades to recoup.

As a Dutch citizen I can tell you right now that we have this problem once again, in healthcare, in education, and in affordable housing. The fixes are available, but they all take lots of time again. Similarly, some odd decade ago we disbanded ALL of our Leopard (2) tank divisions. Guess what we're buying today...

Its mind blowingly stupid, the penny pinching we do.

 

[Nhonho]

Yep, as good as Dutch are in spotting opportunities in trade, they are also in being penny wise pound stupid. If the cost becomes too high we're far too quick to remove it from our balance. And then some X time later we realize we threw away expertise that takes decades to recoup.

As a Dutch citizen I can tell you right now that we have this problem once again, in healthcare, in education, and in affordable housing. The fixes are available, but they all take lots of time again. Similarly, some odd decade ago we disbanded ALL of our Leopard (2) tank divisions. Guess what we're buying today...

Its mind blowingly stupid, the penny pinching we do.

Did I write something wrong up there?

 

[Vayra86]

Did I write something wrong up there?

No I dont think so? Philips did have opportunities they missed and it has everything to do with outsourcing and no longer owning production capacity; the company used to do everything itself. They sold key divisions and frequently got stuck in the past, not the future.