NVIDIA Warns: GeForce RTX 40-Series GPUs Could be in Shortage in Q4

[inquisitor1]

On his instability issues I think he should have asked for a second sample, dud's do happen, and also tried in a different PC, as what he reported I wouldnt expect to be a widespread problem.

could be he got a dud. but also influencers play sides. they have interests and agendas. they like to instigate, ill admit. but even the black magic executive just keeps saying get a xx70 or xx80 card.

in the tom article the amd executive noted theyre pushing for better RT and productivity. maybe this is ryzens push. I hope so. I want to see them going for nvidias throat. cause intel is also coming up slowly. we can try to dissmiss them now but they arent just going to fall over.

like with fx chips people scolded them, maybe its finally time for amd to lead instead of just follow. id pay the amd premium over nvidia premium if theyd bring the goods.

 

[freeagent]

Most guys who run Nvidia have run AMD/ATi in the past. Each company does things a little differently.. some people like one way or the other, which is typically why they stay with a brand. Smack talking someone's choice does literally nothing except make the buyer feel bad for no good reason. This is supposed to be a hobby..

 

[inquisitor1]

Almost filled the entire bingo card in one comment, these posts are so predictable. And here I was hoping for some new, fresh burns on Jensen

View attachment 373070

that guy is so cringe

the more he tries the more I cringe

 

[Kaleid]

Well, with tons of corporations having record high profits they do pass the costs over to the consumer

As someone said, vote with your wallet

Don't normalize super high prices

 

[wtfbbqlol]

It's easy to say that last bit, but no sensible business would turn its back outright on a $3 billion revenue stream, nor on a market over which it has near-monopoly control. Yes, Nvidia's revenue from the AI craze dwarfs everything else; no, that doesn't mean gaming's irrelevant. As the saying goes, gaming is the horse that brung Nvidia. And who knows how long the AI orgy will last?

Here I actually have to give Jensen at least a tiny bit of credit. He founded the company, so he has some stake in its long term health and reputation. This is in contrast to the generic 'gun-for-hire' CEO, who in many cases will respond to overwhelming incentives to min/max for short term gains. (i.e. if you can get a $40 million bonus today and a golden parachute when you're fired, you don't have to care what happens later.)

We complain, justifiably, about Nvidia's pricing scheme, but it could be far worse.

Pretty good take

 

[R-T-B]

Then what's happening right now?

NVIDIA is being generous to you for jumpstarting them as a company, and throwing you some leftover compute handouts.

Well, with tons of corporations having record high profits they do pass the costs over to the consumer

As someone said, vote with your wallet

Don't normalize super high prices

I mean voting with your wallets will just get them to leave the gaming market entirely at this point, I feel.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but gamers don't have an ounce of bargaining power here. They are no longer a significant market revenue stream.

 

[DaemonForce]

They are significant when the pinch point starts to destroy studios that make games and depend on some reasonable hardware competency in order to sell product or an experience at any price. There's a minimum bar for everything and when it gets obstructions like minimum point of entry for that market, it's dead before arrival. Thankfully we can always go back to older games. Oh wait...Many companies are trying to obsolete those older titles and remove access to them entirely. Viciously repugnant behavior all around.

 

[Upgrayedd]

NVIDIA is being generous to you for jumpstarting them as a company, and throwing you some leftover compute handouts.


I mean voting with your wallets will just get them to leave the gaming market entirely at this point, I feel.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but gamers don't have an ounce of bargaining power here. They are no longer a significant market revenue stream.

They're still king, in both markets, right now.
Why would they leave the gaming market when they can satisfy their pockets from both?

Yes compute is more profitable. Does supply really matter when the only demand is for your own product and not the competitors? You can take both markets even with tsm at max capacity if all everyone wants is green. Compute will always get satisfied first.
It's too easy for them to translate the compute side to hold the vast majority of the consumer side. With AMD backing out of the high end consumer GPU, the profitable end, it's probably going to be easier than ever for nvidia to maintain that higher profit margin end of the consumer market.

 

[Ayhamb99]

While Nvidia are certainly blameworthy and being a bunch of greedy bozos, let's not forget to put some of the blame on the average consumer. I am most definitely certain that Nvidia caught wind of the average consumer behaviour during the GPU shortage around the peak time of the pandemic. People were paying highly inflated prices like $1000+ or something for an RTX 3070 during the peak time of the shortage in 2021, a card that was supposed to be between $500-$600, despite many people yelling and advising to have patience and wait to not pay at the heavily inflated prices. It hinted to Nvidia that people were willing to still buy despite the higher prices, hence the overpriced nature of the 4000s cards when they came out despite the shortage being over and prices returned down to reality. The fact that the gaming division reported a 15% increases in sales over last year despite the overpriced MSRPs of the 4000s cards says it all, people still kept buying and enabled this kind of greedy behaviour.

While NVIDIA’s greed is undeniable, don’t blame them only—put some blame on the average consumers who first enabled Nvidia's price hiking by buying GPUs at the inflated prices during the pandemic and tolerated the 4000s price hikes.

 

[Ruru]

Most guys who run Nvidia have run AMD/ATi in the past. Each company does things a little differently.. some people like one way or the other, which is typically why they stay with a brand. Smack talking someone's choice does literally nothing except make the buyer feel bad for no good reason. This is supposed to be a hobby..

Yeah, and I'm going back. Got a 3080 just because I got a good deal from this.

 

[Waldorf]

@evernessince
not saying you do, but it sound more like you are trying to defend your purchase.

about 1.5 B gamers on this planet, iirc about 500 M for pc, so no, we are not a small number, just those spending +1K $ on it, and definitely more than
those that run dgpus for non-gaming.

just because a new game has "new" requirements (RT), does not force me to buy a new card, to play the game.
a game with higher requirements doesnt require a new gpu, no one is forced to play 4K@120hz with HDR, i can do so at 1K/2k@60Hz just fine.

just because a new game has higher requirements, doesnt magically fill my wallet with money, so i can spend 4 digits on a gpu
and anyone spending more on a single part, than what it costs to feed a family of four for 2 month, might see it as a hobby, i dont.


virtually nothing on this planet sells for more than what ppl are willing to pay, and the past 2 series showed Nv they can charge more.
i saw the price crap coming when it increased with the 3 series and continued with 4, and anyone with a 3070/4070 or higher chip,
is part of the (higher cost) problem, and that doesn't make me mad at "you", but for me personally they have no business complaining about it.

 

[DaemonForce]

Yeah, and I'm going back. Got a 3080 just because I got a good deal from this.

Based.

it sound more like you are trying to defend your purchase.

I think a lot of us go through a lot of research steps before getting into something mid-$$$ to lower $$$$ levels of expensive because we want to maintain the value from our choices long enough for those decisions to pay off and enough of us are hyper aware that our choices aren't typically the best if even coinflip levels of good. Whether or not that's defending a purchase is entirely up to the user but I think more of us have trouble committing to a purchase than anything else. Have any of us ever sunk $$$ down into a bad GPU purchase? I know I have.

Mid 2004 I was finishing up school and a new Pentium 4 build and it needed a GPU but I couldn't get information on any of them anywhere. Office supply shops mark up everything so I went the Walmart route, which was probably the first mistake but whatever. The Radeon 9200 was the fair option, extremely overpriced and the other options were between a pair of FX Ultras that I couldn't get. To rush my Pentium 4 build, I went Radeon. It mostly worked but not like every other card in the 9000 series that actually had DX9 feature level. It took 5 years of working with that to finally replace it with a low profile DX10 card. By then it was already EOL and time to build a new system. It was far more trouble than it was worth and things could have been much better if I had just waited for cheaper choices to appear. Going into the next build I chose an AM3 board with far worse in the form of an unstable IGP. Picking up another mainboard and HD6570 card was just another expensive bandaid but it seemed fine until years later when Unity started to grow immensely popular in the 2D desktop and 3D VR spaces.

This was peak Ethereum era and I was having trouble picking up a RX 580 because they were constantly sold out as quickly as they restocked. It was frustrating and insane and double MSRP by the time I got one. It did the job and even made some people around me question their choices up and down the board (GTX 1050Ti, RX480, RX570, GTX970, GTX1060, etc) as I was one of few people in VR spaces that was NOT struggling with frames or stutters.

Now I'm looking to replace that just to have stable frames for recording and streaming and that's been a struggle. I'm looking at cards that are 300-500% current performance but they're not $400-500 anymore. They're $600 for anything with decent raster and encode, upwards of $1200 for anything with a decent balance of features and vram. Let me make this clear, nobody gives a shit about GPUs. I'm paying way more for this bullshit with my attention than anything else, noticing how this market was co-opted and manipulated by a bunch of buttcoin nerds, Gamestop traders and all the other grifter noise that has LITERALLY NOTHING to do with PC gaming or any of these PC related hobbies.

People don't give a shit about GPUs and they're expensive. Outrageously expensive. A single PC component should not be somewhere between a month's rent and a car payment. This issue is permanently auto-pricing gamers out of the PC gaming hobby, while editors can't get a modern card that works. Render jobs are stuck in limbo because nobody can figure out lightmaps at a good memory budget and new streamers are MIA because of insufferable catch-22 bullshit going on between the bare minimum site settings with cards that juggle upscaling features against vram but the encoder can't cut it so the whole computer just explodes. Just ordinary people with regular hobbies.

Normies don't give a damn about buying GPUs but suddenly they do and it turns out these things are entirely necessary to make anything work. Then the moment everything is quiet, when things start to look like it's all going to be okay (that's suspicious...), more buttcoin weirdos swoop in from the dead of night and wreck the market faster than a ninja sex party. NOBODY can get these cards. ALL the stock goes missing (or into the hands of miners) while I start to hear the murmur of normies, sneakerheads and other tourists that don't belong in these spaces talking about the latest flagship card. We need to start gatekeeping our hobbies or we're not going to have anything left. I literally haven't gotten any work done since July and most of that has been a troubleshooting fiasco from January. I want to game just so I can forget about this colossal waste of time. JFC.

 

[Waldorf]

@DaemonForce
my prob is with folks that have a 4070 or better and talk about high prices on the 5 series.
those that actually bought it as "investment" for longer term use, wouldnt have to, as they would not be looking at getting a new card.
and those that think they need to swap their stuff every gen, well, deal with it.

having lots of friends (and fof) that game as well, and i now know more ppl with a big gpu (xx80/90), compared to say 10 or 20y ago, and its def not because gpus gotten cheaper.
and from some exceptions, Nv has a pretty good idea of what their gpus are doing (e.g. who is gaming), unless your off the grid and their telemetry isnt broadcasting,
so they know who is willing to shell out +1K on a dgpu outside of mining.

i always had a console, starting with atari, and all PS except the 5, as i decided its getting too expensive, even that you get more (in return) compared to spending same amount on a part (or 2) for the pc.
if a hobby (or anything else for that matter) gets too expensive (for whatever reason), you stop spending money on it, but only on things like pc/gaming ppl think, it needs to go on forever.

i mean i get what you are saying, but everything is about having the extra money or not, and thus making a decision either way, no matter what is the cause for high pricing,
like we do with even more important things like living quarters/food/car etc, where no one argues the same way (like some do) about the higher price for the next tier up/better one.

 

[R-T-B]

Why would they leave the gaming market when they can satisfy their pockets from both?

Because one pays far better with the limited amount they can make? This really isn't a super complex concept guys.

With AMD backing out of the high end consumer GPU, the profitable end, it's probably going to be easier than ever for nvidia to maintain that higher profit margin end of the consumer market.

This I agree with btw. I just disagree on their reasons for staying.

End result is basically the same lol. My 7950 XTX is the end of an era for AMD I fear.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Because one pays far better with the limited amount they can make? This really isn't a super complex concept guys.

Which has always been taken care of first and always will.
They won't leave gaming as long as they can hold majority so easily, it just isn't priority.
If your brand is the only one in demand then supply isn't near as important. The same amount of money is made whether the customer waits or not, because they aren't buying the competition.

 

[bug]

Because one pays far better with the limited amount they can make? This really isn't a super complex concept guys.

Imho, if that's all it took, they would have been out by now. For better or worse, gaming is a relatively steady source of income. Mining made them a lot of money in the past, but that well dried up. Not there's HPC/AI, but there's no telling when that domain will also hit a wall and operators won't be so desperate for inventory.

 

[R-T-B]

Imho, if that's all it took, they would have been out by now.

They aren't though, and they are a publicly traded company. These figures have been around for ages, guys, in their own financial releases. Compute consistently makes more money than gaming. For like a decade now.

 

[Upgrayedd]

They aren't though, and they are a publicly traded company. These figures have been around for ages, guys, in their own financial releases. Compute consistently makes more money than gaming. For like a decade now.

Don't think anybody said it doesn't.

Just saying they won't just leave a market they can easily dominate because they can't get chips to it until a few months later than compute. The demand is still there, I don't think you would see giant shift front green to red because nvidia is a few months late on supply for gaming.

But I mean what is happening right now? Is there not total dominance in both markets by nvidia? TSM at full capacity doesn't matter clearly, the gaming market just has to wait for their supply.
You make it seem like they have competition to be worried about to satisfy the demand. Sadly they don't have any right now.

 

[purecain]

With the AI market the way it currently is, do you really believe that?

There's a problem merging the dies that make up the gpu, greatly lowers yield apparently. Extra production lines have been set up but Nvidia said it expects to have shortages and the GPU's yield problems are not expected to change with this particular GPU Die run, due to this added complexity with the connecting inner layer of the GPU die. Something about the heat causing the layers to expand at different rates.
The next Nvidia GPU is the size of two Monolithic GPU's from either brand. The 5090 or Titan will be a real rendering powerhouse matched with a 5950X3D.

Most guys who run Nvidia have run AMD/ATi in the past. Each company does things a little differently.. some people like one way or the other, which is typically why they stay with a brand. Smack talking someone's choice does literally nothing except make the buyer feel bad for no good reason. This is supposed to be a hobby..

Yep I loved my AMD 9800pro back in the day, before RT cores when rendering shadows didnt require ray tracing rendering was everything and I remember ATI leading then Nvidia and it was back and forth. AMD said they would keep the ATI team on and that there would be no change but we have been let down repeatedly. I love AMD I use there CPU's and GPU's but lately Ive been buying the best NVIDIA cards so that I can game and stream at the highest possible fidelity. imo. Its worth mentioning that the non RT shadows which are added artistically by the developers can sometimes be better. Equaling Rt shadows if not enabling the developer more control over the atmosphere of a given scene. In games where the devs are lazy RT shadows does look a hell of a lot better. Hence my choice to go with Nvidia. We live in hope that AMD will pull something out of the bag when we least expect it and destroy the market.

 

[GoldenX]

Wonder what will be the nerf for the 5060. It can't be only a price increase.

 

[freeagent]

I was an ATi guy

 

[R-T-B]

Just saying they won't just leave a market they can easily dominate because they can't get chips to it until a few months later than compute.

If they can find a lower end node, maybe. But they are using the same one as of now. Compute is literally buying all they can make.

 

[Chomiq]

I guess they learned from the 40-series launch when they had plenty leftover 30-series in stock. As people before have said:
- vote with your wallet
- no one is forcing people to buy these cards

 

[DaemonForce]

my prob is with folks that have a 4070 or better and talk about high prices on the 5 series.
those that actually bought it as "investment" for longer term use, wouldnt have to, as they would not be looking at getting a new card.

I see a few reasons that would happen but the cat-brained normie cultists that jump straight to the newest/$$$$ every launch need to get gone.
Creators and editors are the meat of it. There are people still relying on consumer hardware like the 1660 Super and RX5700 for work.
The ones with those parts are a tiny minority but I find some of them and they are perfectly positioned for the jump to RTX5000 series.
They can gamble with used market, struggle with duds like I did and risk the bottom falling out OR pay a low premium on fresh high $$$ hardware.
When it looks like that, it's a pretty easy choice because you are effectively investing in delivering a better experience to yourself and your audience.

In this case taking the risk can be much worse, causing really stupid problems where the company has your money but you're still out a card.
That happened to me earlier this year and I'm just now getting around to fixing it. I'm just a VR enthusiast that likes making videos.
Imagine what these problems do to people that depend on compute for a living. Where their only income depends on RTX. It's insane but real.

i mean i get what you are saying, but everything is about having the extra money or not, and thus making a decision either way, no matter what is the cause for high pricing,
like we do with even more important things like living quarters/food/car etc, where no one argues the same way (some do) about the higher price on the next better one.

The only argument I have with this is there is no "extra" money. There is a benchmark for value and some narrow scope for targeting higher value.
Any other choice derived from speculation is what dumps everyone into a race to the bottom. I've been through it enough times and want out.

- no one is forcing people to buy these cards

For ordinary gamers, yeah. It's not an arms race. For the creators, it's an all out nightmare running unoptimized apps and assets that compete for FPS.
The markets that make up game studios, online entertainment and PC gaming ALL contribute to this push. The brakes at the moment are pure speculation.
The vibe can shift real quick when something isn't right and it's incredibly frustrating just getting everything to agree for one job.
I really hope I never have to choose like that from either side juggling features I don't want with the parts that I do at $$$$.
Maybe someday I can pick up an old card that's ripe for memory mod but I don't have that much confidence in my own skill.

 

[Waldorf]

@DaemonForce
sorry, meant the "extra money" as in money i dont need for anything else, and can spend it (on a hobby).