It's not, I've repeatedly stated in the past this was gonna happen and summarily dismissed, sanction them hard enough and it's only a matter of time until their technology advancements branch out and - eventually - leapfrog the West's. I have a lot more to talk about this, but it's all political and none of it very nice, so I'm giving it a pass - looks like
@Assimilator covered the basics of it anyway.
In a capitalist system, you'd be 100% right. In the CCP, you are wrong. Instead of research-patent-monopolize-profit-research you get steal-replicate-drive cost out of product. The problem is that driving cost out is unsustainable. You need somebody to steal from, something to replicate, or somebody to give you a leg up. Let me suggest that you live in Brazil. Your country does quite a bit to protect technology...which is why for years you couldn't legally purchase videogame systems that were not manufactured in Brazil.
What happened? Brazil created a need by extreme protectionism. Initially, software pirates swooped in, and provided for the immediate need. Pirates became developers, and now Brazil has a surprisingly robust amount of developers
Software dev/project list.
In China they steal western tech. They use local universities and middlemen to transfer that tech to industry. They develop cheaper versions, removing any investment in the stuff. They then pump these designs to the market, and let them low bid production to saturate the market. The company in another country that spent $100k developing the tech now has a competitor that can crap out a cheap clone at 70% of the price with none of the research cost. They come to the market, sell at 80% of the cost of the research group, and the research group never earns the money they invested back. That cycle continues until you get a product that you can't make cheap, is protected, or requires tech you cannot replicate because you haven't stolen it yet. You are the CCP...you have investment in spy networks, and you've spent 4 decades pushing for replication and not research. How do you suddenly turn around and make research a priority, when anyone in your own population that suggested that either donated their organs afterwards, or were priced out of the market by cheaper alternatives?
Well, we'll have to see if this is another case of China overpromising and underperforming. They remind me of these three companies that we all know of
So this time there is no "84 year old grandma handmade computer chip" ?
CCTV, an arm of the CCP, ran a piece on somebody hand fabricating 5nm chips. They claimed that they'd solved the manufacturing issues with the balls for ballpoint pens...and 80% of the market internal to China told them to go pound sand. The C919 is less reliable than Boeing and Airbus, cannot come close to meeting production goals, and is still reliant on western made goods because they cannot replicate the stuff they stole in the Boeing leaks.
I fear the Chinese people deciding that today is the day, and that the CCP needs to go. If they weren't part of such a backwards power they'd have eaten the lunch of a lot of lazy western markets, who only now are acting as though the CCP hasn't told the west that we are at war with them openly, and acted on that truth. That said, the CCP and the USSR are cut from the same cloth. Their downfall is their former strength, that they've got central planning and almost no flexibility. If the party leader says we need 5 nm manufacturing up and running by June 1st 2025 it will be running by then. If they say the yields must be 85%, the yields will be 85%. By the time the leader is finally aware that everyone is lying to avoid punishment, they are left with nothing to build upon. This is why 11,000 companies for semiconductors and chip manufacturing shutdown in 2023. It was not because they didn't have the resources (people), the training (again, western educations), or the physical resources. It is entirely down to the incentives for developing all of the stuff needed for the next revolution missing. Error 404, incentive to push technology forward not found because it's wasted capital.
You're welcome to hate capitalism all you'd like. Patents, or government protected monopolies, push things forward by making other companies have a hard time competing with you if you invest in development. In return, in a set period of time, that research is made public to enrich everyone. It's not perfect, but it's a far sight better than the communist idea of "sharing" everything. If I new the fruits of my effort would be "shared" and enrich only the people who would low bid with my technology I'd not want to burn myself making that tech. The CCP solved that problem by stealing the tech...where about 99% of their "leapfrogging" development came from. That's great...until there's no new tech to steal, nothing you can replicate, or you suddenly find the rest of the world aware of your "sharing" and unwilling to treat you as an equal anymore. Then you get to be North Korea.
Lol, Boeing nEvEr fails.
And what exactly failed about HSR, as in 70% of HSR in the world is failing how? Japan is failing to build HSR in both India and Vietnam but you don't seem to care.
Also who is supplying Chinese Nuclear Powered submarines, destroyers and soon carriers? Why would the Chinese be bothered with diesel? If you want ***cheap reliable outdated fossil technology***, you go German.
You seem to not read. Boeing is something I have issues with...and you think it's a pithy retort?
HSR is failing for a lot of reasons. I refer to the quality and replacement of the wheels causing catastrophic vibrations during riding. I could refer to ghost lines, or to insane costs which cannot be attainable for normal people....but that's another huge discussion. Don't really care about Japan, India, and Vietnam because they haven't tried to resell stolen HSR tech to the rest of the world by undercutting the people who developed it.
You seem to not understand the concept of boats. How many nuclear reactors do the Chinese have? Well, one carrier that cannot leave port without a tug. The other two are steam operated...so diesel and fuel oil. The thing is, most of China's naval assets are green water...IE, not open ocean. Most are powered by diesel, because it's literally the only way to power them. It's kinda silly that you can say they have the largest navy in the world by tonnage, without also considering if the Germans stopped supplying them diesel engines they'd have the largest amount of scrap in the water. You're welcome to bring up the nuclear sub argument...which is old soviet tech with some evolution...but none of that exports... It's amazing that you can read words and have zero comprehension of both what they keep and what they sell, and be so assured that they are awesome. It's almost like you reading comprehension is "what I think you said" instead of "the words." Consider me unimpressed, and entirely sure that the people so sure that China will win are also those too dense to be able to differentiate truth from propaganda. The west isn't perfect, but you don't have to be perfect to be better than the CCP.
