Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[trog100]

The thing is this "hodl" mentality has been cemented pretty well into people's psyche during this past decade. People will keep buying no matter what, metrics from exchanges show that there are almost always more buyers of BTC than sellers irrespective of market conditions.

Of course the thing is these are mostly retail investors, meaning they have very little capital so that's why prices barely budge even though the buy/sell ratio might be 80/20 after a crash. The only question is when or if big players will decide to pump the price again.

This isn't a problem in particular if you recognize these patterns, it's important you realize this because you can, in fact, profit from it. Though most will continue to be cannon fodder having never realized any real profits.

bitcoin is a big boys thing.. buy and hold and you cant lose.. dabble short term and you can..

trog

 

[80-watt Hamster]

bitcoin is a big boys thing.. buy and hold and you cant lose.. dabble short term and you can..

trog

Thing is, you can't hold forever. The whole idea of investing is to get a return. Otherwise, it's like burying a safe full of gold (or whatever) under your house and never digging it up. Sure, you've got $5M in gold in the ground, but it's functionally worthless if you dont' do anything with it. And you can lose. You can always lose. No market or asset is a sure bet. Some are closer than others, but the bottom can always drop out, and there's no guarantee it'll come back up. You can manage that risk, but there is no such thing as "can't lose".

 

[trog100]

Thing is, you can't hold forever. The whole idea of investing is to get a return. Otherwise, it's like burying a safe full of gold (or whatever) under your house and never digging it up. Sure, you've got $5M in gold in the ground, but it's functionally worthless if you dont' do anything with it. And you can lose. You can always lose. No market or asset is a sure bet. Some are closer than others, but the bottom can always drop out, and there's no guarantee it'll come back up. You can manage that risk, but there is no such thing as "can't lose".

i dont think i said hold for ever.. there may well come a point where some of the accumulated assets get disposed of..

the main thing is you need to be in position where you can afford to hold the bulk of your stash.. even traders should have a hodle bag that they never dip into..

i am not going to sell my crypto.. i am also in a position where i dont need to..

dabbling for short tern gain is just as likely to lose money as gain it..

i am holding and adding to my bitcoin stash with mining.. i dont envisage losing money by doing this..

trog

 

[RandallFlagg]

i dont think i said hold for ever.. there may well come a point where some of the accumulated assets get disposed of..

the main thing is you need to be in position where you can afford to hold the bulk of your stash.. even traders should have a hodle bag that they never dip into..

i am not going to sell my crypto.. i am also in a position where i dont need to..

dabbling for short tern gain is just as likely to lose money as gain it..

i am holding and adding to my bitcoin stash with mining.. i dont envisage losing money by doing this..

trog

It's pretty silly to keep stating something as if it were fact when it demonstrably is not.

Even if you were investing in an ETF on an market index, you can continuously lose money for a decade or (far) more. This is especially true when one realizes that an ETF is not an index, and the indexes are not static. Companies go bankrupt, get de-listed, and replaced. The ETF takes a hit that is not reflected on the index.

If anything, BTC would be more akin to investing in an individual stock. That's more dangerous, I can show you hundreds of stocks that never recovered from the 2000 .com implosion. Many are household names in tech, for example Cisco which is trading about 35% below its 2000 peak. HP just bounced off its 2000 high and quickly cratered. Intel currently trades about 30% lower than its 2000 peak, despite its best years as far as tech and growth potential were arguably in 2008-2014 when it had both the best nodes and best microarch.

Just as Vya said, buy and hold blindly is a sales pitch. It's a lie. Reality is quite different. Some people can learn this through observation and research, some must experience it themselves.

 

[trog100]

historically speaking with bitcoin it definitely is.. okay nothing is for ever.. i could get run over by a bus tomorrow..

i dont buy stocks and shares and i dont gamble.. but i am definitle gonna hodle my bitcoin litecoin and eth.. he he..

i agree that selling at the peaks and buying back in at the dips would make more money.. but simple hodling will do for me..

trog

 

[MentalAcetylide]

Whether this stuff goes up more or crashes hard is anyone's guess. I think the time to go all in on crypto for big cash gains has long passed. My opinion would be to sell most or all of it now if you have a significant amount of cryptocurrency and have already made huge gains from it. While the rewards can be just as good "if" it skyrockets in value while holding on to it, I don't see the point of risking all current gains on uncertain "hopeful gains" with a volatile investment unless you have money to throw away & don't care about risk.
While I do foresee society going to a completely cashless computer-based monetary system(yes, its going to happen), there's really no way of knowing how its going to take shape in order to take advantage of it and be able to invest accordingly.

 

[trog100]

thursday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin is at 33.5 K.. still going sideways with eth doing a little better than bitcoin..

not a lot happening and this sideways movement could continue for a while.. i think it will but that is just my own oppinion..

trog

 

[basco]

i am still hodling.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Yeah if you waited this long no point in selling now
60k yeah that was the time to sell, buy more gear atm stores like micro center is getting gpu's again in stock limited supply of course

 

[lexluthermiester]

thursday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin is at 33.5 K.. still going sideways with eth doing a little better than bitcoin..

not a lot happening and this sideways movement could continue for a while.. i think it will but that is just my own oppinion..

trog

The trend suggests that the downslope continues. The "plunge" might be over. There are hints of a valuation plateau for Bitcoin proper. Eth is anyones guess ATM. That plunge is likely to continue...

 

[80-watt Hamster]

The trend suggests that the downslope continues. The "plunge" might be over. There are hints of a valuation plateau for Bitcoin proper. Eth is anyones guess ATM. That plunge is likely to continue...

My issue with trends in crypto is history. Randall's fitted some well-known patterns onto the curves here and there (although often without a timescale ), but crypto's so volatile that it's hard to take any sort of prediction seriously with so little past performance to go on.

 

[trog100]

saturday morning..

bitcoin heading upwards to 35K.. up around 10% from a week ago..

eth is just over 2200 up 25% from its low a week ago..

still going sideways in my book but if there is a short term trend its up.. a longer term trend is waiting to appear.. i think sideways for a while is on the cards..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

i think sideways for a while is on the cards..

The over-all trend is on the down-slope still but that has slowed. You might be right with it going sideways.

 

[trog100]

well.. bitcoin and eth are still going sideways.. not a lot of change.. i still expect more sideways for a while..

trog

 

[ppn]

clearly crashing following 2 tangents or whatever you may call it, one is tilted 60 degree till it loses 70% of the value ~~1000euro levels, then jump to 2000, then 30 degree slowly drain the money out of the system to the real bottom.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Moving inside a trend channel.

I think this is just a retrace on the down move from 6/15-6/22. It hit an almost exact 61.8% retrace (Fibonacci ratio) of that 6/15-6/22 decline. So, it may be getting ready to move to new lows.

Looks like bear flag so far :

 

[freeagent]

As much as I wanted a GPU, I didn’t want to see people lose their money. I’m not that kind of guy.. had to think about that for a sec.. but you guys were saving me money by letting me pay back my debt because I refused to pay over retail and did without lol..

If the very least, I hope you guys break even on your hardware and hydro consumption. Of course I do wish more for you.. but my middle name is not Nostradamus unfortunately..

 

[lexluthermiester]

I didn’t want to see people lose their money. I’m not that kind of guy..

I am! People need to invest their money in better things and leave PC hardware to the PC market. I couldn't care less about ASICs, no problems there...

 

[trog100]

wednesday morning and bitcoin and eth are still moving sideways basically moving between 32 and 35 K... not a lot happening..

trog

 

[Vayra86]

Actually more like long live physical cash.

This. It is essential to our freedom.

Plus I think we won't be abandoning physical cash. Far too many places on earth that still rely on it, which is easy to forget.

 

[RandallFlagg]

BTC continues to test its lower trend channel - 4hr charts.

Previous post :

Currently :

 

[lexluthermiester]

I think trog might be right, most coins seem to be plateauing. YFI is back on top though..

 

[trog100]

I think trog might be right, most coins seem to be plateauing. YFI is back on top though..

i think we may be looking at a new bitcoin general price level.. it dosnt have to keep doing dramatic price fluctuations.. the fomo driven buying is over.. the fud driven selling is over.. the volatility has gone out of the market.. its settled..

trog

 

[RandallFlagg]

i think we may be looking at a new bitcoin general price level.. it dosnt have to keep doing dramatic price fluctuations.. the fomo driven buying is over.. the fud driven selling is over.. the volatility has gone out of the market.. its settled..

trog

All markets are driven by fear and greed. Declaring that those forces are over is bizarre. The market is simply nearing a short term decision point, nothing more. One camp will win, and the other will lose, and then the game will go on.

Managing Fear and Greed In The Markets - Forex Training Group

Fear is a potent emotion. It can increase your adrenaline and make you feel very uncomfortable. Managing your fears comes with experience. For example,

forextraininggroup.com

 

[trog100]

All markets are driven by fear and greed. Declaring that those forces are over is bizarre. The market is simply nearing a short term decision point, nothing more. One camp will win, and the other will lose, and then the game will go on.

Managing Fear and Greed In The Markets - Forex Training Group

Fear is a potent emotion. It can increase your adrenaline and make you feel very uncomfortable. Managing your fears comes with experience. For example,

forextraininggroup.com

lets just say the forces you mention are having a little rest before the next event..

trog