Global Warming & Climate Change Discussion

[FordGT90Concept]

Here's a detailed article about cirrus clouds and why they complicate things:
http://people.atmos.ucla.edu/liou/Cirrus_&_Climate.pdf

In short:
-they're difficult for climate models to predict
-their effect on temperature is difficult to measure
-the size (from about 10 µm to 2000 µm) and shape (bullet rosettes, aggregates, hollow columns, and plate) of the ice crystals varies its impact on infrared radiation (contributes to warming) and solar albedo (contributes to cooling)
-not only can aircraft contrails seed cirrus clouds, aerosols do too

An interesting quote from that article:

An analysis of cirrus cloud cover in Salt Lake City based on surface observations revealed that a substantial increase in cirrus clouds occurring in about 1965 coincided with a sharp increase in domestic jet fuel consumption in the mid-1960s.

I wouldn't be surprised if, in 20 years or so, the world will have to make a decision between aircraft operating at high altitudes where fuel consumption is better but they form cirrus clouds or operating at low altitude where fuel consumption is poor but cirrus clouds do not form.

In time, we may discover that even though aircraft don't contribute a huge amount of CO2 to the atmosphere, they may be the main culprit in terms of warming due to the formation of clouds and depositing CO2 where it is most effective as a greenhouse gas.


I'd rather Lockheed Martin finish their fusion reactor and commercial aircraft start running on fusion power (zero emissions).

 

[dorsetknob]

I'd rather Lockheed Martin finish their fusion reactor and commercial aircraft start running on fusion power (zero emissions).

"And piloted by Wookies on work visa's "

 

[FordGT90Concept]

...or AI.

Drone commercial airliners can't be far off especially considering about half of airline accidents are due to pilot error.

 

[dorsetknob]

or AI

Now would that be "Hal" but after the budget cuts you lose the "H" and get a substuted i instead of the l

 

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

ILS

An instrument landing system (ILS) is a ground-based instrument approach system that provides precision lateral and vertical guidance to an aircraft approaching and landing on a runway, using a combination of radio signals and, in many cases, high-intensity lighting arrays to enable a safe landing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_landing_system

 

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

2015 may NOT have been the hottest year on record after all: Satellite data shows temperatures were lower than first thought


For months, reports have claimed 2015 was the hottest year on record, with temperatures reaching unprecedented levels globally. By studying satellite data, the results contradict the previous readings and predictions made using land-based weather stations.

The satellite readings were taken from the lower atmosphere.

They show that the temperature anomaly for December 2015 was 0.44°C (0.79°F), which was up from November's 0.33°C (0.59°F), said the experts from University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH).

Over the course of 12 months, this made 2015 the third warmest year since satellite records began in 1979, with an average global temperature of 0.27°C (0.49°F) above the average.

This is lower than the combined average temperature taken using land and sea-based equipment, which found the temperatures were 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F) in November alone.

Based on the satellite data, 1998 holds the record for the warmest year at 0.48°C, followed by 2010, at 0.34°C (0.61°F).

The most recent data has been published online by Dr Roy Spencer, a meteorologist at UAH.

According to NOAA, November 2015 was the globe's warmest November on record, the seventh consecutive month to reach a new high. A climate update from NOAA also noted a record-warm average temperature for 2015 through the end of November (pictured)

 

[SK-1]

^omg...How on EARTH (no pun intended really) can one still be so sure of this "Science"?

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Somewhat related: Brown declares state of emergency at Porter Ranch amid massive gas leak

Natural gas is really no cleaner than oil/coal. That one leak, right now, makes up for 25% of California's methane emissions and methane is 20+ times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. It's quickly taking over coal as USA's top energy source:

 

[magibeg]

^omg...How on EARTH (no pun intended really) can one still be so sure of this "Science"?

Newtons laws of gravitation were overturned by relativity? How can we ever trust "science".

 

[dorsetknob]

Newtons laws of gravitation were overturned by relativity? How can we ever trust "science".

wait until a politician tells you about science
you can Trust a politician

 

[SK-1]

wait until a politician tells you about science
you can Trust a politician

 

[SK-1]

Newtons laws of gravitation were overturned by relativity? How can we ever trust "science".

I know right? Seems like a million years since I first posted pictures of all the bogus NOAA/NWS temp reporting station locations over at GN. Long time no speak. Hope things are well up north!

 

[magibeg]

I know right? Seems like a million years since I first posted pictures of all the bogus NOAA/NWS temp reporting station locations over at GN. Long time no speak. Hope things are well up north!

Everything was wonderful until El-Nino seems to have left us. Now it's just snow snow snow . It's not that I dislike snow, it's more that it ruins my drive into work. My commute was 2.5 hours today.... 1 way!!!

 

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

National Center for Atmospheric Research says new machine 100,000 times faster than home PC. ( or about 4 times faster than my Xeons )

This photo taken May 5, 2015, shows the Yellowstone supercomputer at the NCAR Wyoming Supercomputing Center west of Cheyenne, Wyo. A new supercomputer is set to begin operations in 2017, and it will be one of the fastest computers in the world.


The National Center for Atmospheric Research says Cheyenne will be at least 2 ½ times faster than the Yellowstone supercomputer in Wyoming, which currently ranks among the 60 fastest computers in the world.

Cheyenne will be capable of 5.3 quadrillion calculations, also called petaflops, per second.

This speed will enable it to make more detailed climate predictions, like regional modelling of effects, and help answer difficult climate change questions.

And, it will display results in higher resolution.

The new supercomputer will be more efficient, using 10 percent less energy than Yellowstone consumes, and taking up a third of the space.

Cheyenne could help researchers to determine whether the California drought is a product of climate change, or what the effect of climate change will be on future droughts and arctic sea ice, along with other pressing climate issues.

When the new computer is up and running, it will work side-by-side with the old one, though they won't be working in direct coordination, AP says.

Yellowstone has been used since 2012 to study climate change, weather, and other earth science research.

More than 2,200 scientists from over 300 universities and federal labs have tapped into its capabilities.

Supercomputers don't just work on one project at a time, but split the time and bandwidth for many researchers

 

[silkstone]

Newtons laws of gravitation were overturned by relativity? How can we ever trust "science".

A sarcasm tag is really needed here as from this post, and especially the reply, I can't tell if you are being serious.

 

[SK-1]

Everything was wonderful until El-Nino seems to have left us. Now it's just snow snow snow . It's not that I dislike snow, it's more that it ruins my drive into work. My commute was 2.5 hours today.... 1 way!!!

A sarcasm tag is really needed here as from this post, and especially the reply, I can't tell if you are being serious.

This new development will surely help both of these issues. Deep snow and deep shit.

‘Global warming’ could cause humans to develop webbed feet, cat’s eyes and gills.​

http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/01...s-to-develop-webbed-feet-cats-eyes-and-gills/

 

[dorsetknob]

‘Global warming’ could cause humans to develop webbed feet, cat’s eyes and gills.

All ready happened they live in Norfolk UK

 

[silkstone]

I hate to re-kindle the dying flame of this thread but still want to present one last argument. And it's a basic appeal to one's common sense.

The majority of fossil fuel deposits were formed 300 million years ago, when the earth was covered by swampy forests. The CO2 content was pretty damn high at this point, with animal life being restricted to the oceans. This plant life went through cycles of life and death (as does all life) and sequestered carbon into the ground in the form of peat. The peat is what eventually turned into the fossil fuels we use today. This gradually reduced the carbon content in the atmosphere to such a point that animal life was able to evolve and live on the surface of our planet.

By allowing all this sequestered carbon to re-enter we are moving closer to having a "pre-historic" atmosphere, not conducive to life on the surface.

Yes, other gasses contribute to the greenhouse effect, and yes the proportion of sequested CO2 (over 300 million years) re-entering the carbon cycle is low (compared to the total), but CO2 is the only gas re-entering our atmosphere in sufficiently large quantities to have much of an effect on the climate.

To understand the various cycles, is to understand the earth, and I would encourage all to do a little further research into the underlying principles at work behind all of this. You don't have to have a degree to understand many of the fundamentals, and indeed, I never let school get in the way of my own education (to paraphrase Mark Twain). But you must look into the science that these models are built upon, and evaluate their validity before making your judgement.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Yes, other gasses contribute to the greenhouse effect, and yes the proportion of sequested CO2 (over 300 million years) re-entering the carbon cycle is low (compared to the total), but CO2 is the only gas re-entering our atmosphere in sufficiently large quantities to have much of an effect on the climate.

Methane...

As humans are switching from oil and coal to natural gas, the amount that reaches the atmosphere through natural and mechanical means is soaring. It's flammable, it's far more potent than CO2, and as a percentage of the atmosphere, it has increased faster than CO2.

On another thread, I compared two graphs of methane levels and temperature--methane explained anomalies in temperature CO2 could not (like the 2000-2004 "pause" in warming).

Why does CO2 get all of the attention? Because it's easier for green thumbs to squawk at diesel trucks on the highway than at the hunk of steak on their plate.

In America, at least, the coal and oil industries have been pushing advertising hard for natural gas fired power plants. They're trying to legitimize natural gas as being "clean" so it doesn't get stigmatized like coal and oil. Sure it's not as dirty as coal, especially, because it doesn't have lots of particulate matter but it is NOT clean. I posted about this specific topic earlier on this page.


So much attention has been given to CO2 that all of the other factors (like cirrus cloud formations and methane) have been largely ignored. There's far more warning signs for methane (see link) and cirrus (discussed previously) than there ever were for CO2. Hell, the most logical explanation for the loss of ships/aircraft in the Bermuda and Dragon Triangles is massive ocean floor methane releases.

 

[dorsetknob]

"You I said thanks." and i just created my own personal methane cloud

 

[silkstone]

Methane...

As humans are switching from oil and coal to natural gas, the amount that reaches the atmosphere through natural and mechanical means is soaring. It's flammable, it's far more potent than CO2, and as a percentage of the atmosphere, it has increased faster than CO2.

On another thread, I compared two graphs of methane levels and temperature--methane explained anomalies in temperature CO2 could not (like the 2000-2004 "pause" in warming).

Why does CO2 get all of the attention? Because it's easier for green thumbs to squawk at diesel trucks on the highway than at the hunk of steak on their plate.

In America, at least, the coal and oil industries have been pushing advertising hard for natural gas fired power plants. They're trying to legitimize natural gas as being "clean" so it doesn't get stigmatized like coal and oil. Sure it's not as dirty as coal, especially, because it doesn't have lots of particulate matter but it is NOT clean. I posted about this specific topic earlier on this page.


So much attention has been given to CO2 that all of the other factors (like cirrus cloud formations and methane) have been largely ignored. There's far more warning signs for methane (see link) and cirrus (discussed previously) than there ever were for CO2. Hell, the most logical explanation for the loss of ships/aircraft in the Bermuda and Dragon Triangles is massive ocean floor methane releases.

I agree. Methane also has a large effect. Again, mining of fossil fuels (of all types) releases methane into the atmosphere. Wikipedia has some good info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane

I don't think any scientist would disagree that there is more than one gas involved in the current situation we find ourselves. However it is easier to look for alternate transport and energy sources than it is to look for alternate food sources. Note that methane emissions are not caused purely by agriculture, Fossil fuels cause a similar quantity of methane emissions. Add that to the CO2 emissions and you start to see a solution.

The fact that methane is sequestered from the atmosphere much more quickly than carbon means that carbon has longer lasting effects.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle

Edit - The imbalance in the carbon cycle caused by CO2 compared with Methane is, I believe, magnitudes of orders higher, but I don;t have the time to look for reliable sources at the moment. I'll take a look tomorrow.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

We're adding CH4 to the atmosphere much faster than it is being removed (which is why it is rising). CO2 is measured in parts per million where CH4 is measured in parts per billion. Ehm, 1.8 ppm CH4 versus 400 ppm CO2. When you weigh in CH4 could be 100 times more portant CO2 as a greenhouse gas, a tiny change in CH4 results in a massive impact on climate--far greater than CO2. Where CO2 levels are more or less leveling off; CH4 levels continue to climb rapidly.

 

[silkstone]

Again, one more reason we need to move away from using fossil fuels.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

The only path to "move away" from fossil fuels is to have a better alternative available in the market. What would that be? Remember, alternatives need to be competitively priced and readily available to be adapted by said market.


Additionally, moving away from fossil fuels doesn't solve the increasing amount of flatus nor the growing inefficiency of the atmosphere breaking it down. CH4 breaks down into H2O and CO2 in the atmosphere (both also greenhouse gases); however, CH4 does not break down unless in the presence of OH of which amounts are decreasing. Eliminate all mechanical sources of CO2 and CH4 but natural occurances of CH4 will continue to be a problem.

At the end of the day, atmospheric CH4 and CO2 are merely symptoms of a cause: human overpopulation.

 

[silkstone]

And so, your solution would be what . . . world war?