Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Space Lynx]

Shit is really starting to hit the fan in Taiwan.
11 dead, 633 cases today.

LIVE | Tracking Taiwan’s COVID-19 Outbreak: The Latest News from Taiwan’s 22 Counties at a Glance | CommonWealth Magazine

Taiwan’s recent COVID-19 outbreak started with the China Airlines and Novotel clusters before spreading to tea parlors in Wanhua, Taipei City. Follow CommonWealth for the latest developments in the domestic outbreak and information about locations visited by confirmed cases.

web.cw.com.tw

Are people reacting to the news though? Surely with a spike like that people are wearing masks now more often, being a bit safer, etc? That website you linked says 300,000 vaccines given in Taiwan so far, so I am hoping that is a lot of the older people... hopefully those two things combined slows it down enough the deaths don't get out of hand... anyways keep us updated in coming weeks, positive stuff I hope!

 

[TheLostSwede]

Are people reacting to the news though? Surely with a spike like that people are wearing masks now more often, being a bit safer, etc? That website you linked says 300,000 vaccines given in Taiwan so far, so I am hoping that is a lot of the older people... hopefully those two things combined slows it down enough the deaths don't get out of hand... anyways keep us updated in coming weeks, positive stuff I hope!

You get fined if you're not wearing a mask, although, surprisingly there are anti maskers in Taiwan, which I really didn't expect.
Taiwan doesn't have much vaccine, as they were only given 700k doses AZ from covax for a population of 23 million. No-one wanted that initially, so you could pay $20 to get it but that was cancelled before we could get ours and it's now given to medical staff.
The PRC is blocking access to vaccines and are trying to force Taiwan to use their inferior vaccine.
Locally developed vaccines are expected in July.


671 new cases and 13 deaths today.

 

[dragontamer5788]

671 new cases and 13 deaths today.

Is there any %Positive statistic tracking in Taiwan?

At least in the USA, we were using %Positive to determine "how reliable" case# was. Death-counts are the most accurate, but it takes about ~1 month to die from COVID19, so that data comes in "too late" so to speak. Case# is unreliable, but we can at least get an estimate of "how unreliable" it is by taking a look at the number of tests (including negative tests).

We can use July 2021 death-counts to learn about June 2021 or May 2021. So death counts are useful for sure. But... its a mistake to think of death counts as a "current" statistic. Death counts are very much out of date by the time the bean-counting / tallying up / statistics are run.

The rule of thumb in the USA is that you aim for 5% positive. That is, for every positive case detected, there should be 19-cases that were tested but negative. Or, to match your 671 new cases statistic, you want to see 12749 negative tests (or more).

 

[TheLostSwede]

555 new cases and 19 deaths.
The death toll is increasing daily now.

Taiwan reports 297 local COVID cases, 19 deaths, 258 retroactive cases | Taiwan News | May. 28, 2021 14:27

www.taiwannews.com.tw

And this is the petty kind of crap that's going on, thanks to the PRC.

BioNTech made Taiwan remove country from press release before nixing vaccine contract | Taiwan News | May. 28, 2021 12:53

www.taiwannews.com.tw

At least Taiwan seems to be getting what others don't want...

Japan considers sending AZ vaccines to Taiwan in June | Taiwan News | May. 28, 2021 12:59

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Vayra86]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.

www.cnn.com

looks like some people should not have been so quick to make fun of those who believed in lab theory... I believe even in these forums quite a few people were making fun of the previous CDC director for saying there was possibility of lab leak... now Dr. Fauci says it is possible...

Doubt with no substance, I might add.

Like SARS in 2003, this is just a repeat of inevitable events. Markets in China, wild animals. There is nothing to be all suspicious about and world community is watching and aiding research. The WHO is comprised of researchers from across the globe.

Note: Edited by moderator to remove a minor political reference.

 

[HTC]

And this is the petty kind of crap that's going on, thanks to the PRC.

BioNTech made Taiwan remove country from press release before nixing vaccine contract | Taiwan News | May. 28, 2021 12:53

www.taiwannews.com.tw

At least Taiwan seems to be getting what others don't want...

Japan considers sending AZ vaccines to Taiwan in June | Taiwan News | May. 28, 2021 12:59

www.taiwannews.com.tw

That's CRIMINAL: they should be sued for @ least two thirds of ALL their profits from selling the vaccine so that THIS CRAP never EVER happens again.

Vaccines are NOT political tools.

 

[Caring1]

That's CRIMINAL: they should be sued for @ least two thirds of ALL their profits from selling the vaccine so that THIS CRAP never EVER happens again.

Vaccines are NOT political tools.

Why sue the company when it was China forcing the conditions on them?
China is using vaccines as a political tool.

 

[the54thvoid]

The UK ordered about 340 million doses from 6 companies in August 2020. Taiwan left it a little late, as can be seen from the EU/UK bickering where the UK order affected the EU share.

You'll probably find out that the UK's partly responsible for buying enough vaccine to cover the entire population 2-3x over.

But yeah, there's a snifter of corporate cowardice there. Of note, China can't stop a company selling to Taiwan. Biontech is probably hedging bets its lose its Chinese market if it helped Taiwan.

Remember folks, capitalism knows no loyalty.

 

[TheLostSwede]

The UK ordered about 340 million doses from 6 companies in August 2020. Taiwan left it a little late, as can be seen from the EU/UK bickering where the UK order affected the EU share.

You'll probably find out that the UK's partly responsible for buying enough vaccine to cover the entire population 2-3x over.

But yeah, there's a snifter of corporate cowardice there. Of note, China can't stop a company selling to Taiwan. Biontech is probably hedging bets its lose its Chinese market if it helped Taiwan.

Remember folks, capitalism knows no loyalty.

They've tried to negotiate other deals, that was just one is many and yes it was a bit late, but I guess Taiwan wanted to be sure they spent their money on a working vaccine.

A lot of things involving money goes the way of the PRC. You'd think a "communist" nation would act differently, but apparently everyone aren't equal after all...

 

[the54thvoid]

They've tried to negotiate other deals, that was just one is many and yes it was a bit late, but I guess Taiwan wanted to be sure they spent their money on a working vaccine.

A lot of things involving money goes the way of the PRC. You'd think a "communist" nation would act differently, but apparently everyone aren't equal after all...

You've read Animal Farm?

"All animals are created equal."
"But some are more equal than others."

 

[Space Lynx]

back on topic, does anyone have any stats comparing Moderna and Pfizer over the long term, the changes in efficacy against variants long term, comparison of both? I know pfizer is down to like 88% efficacy against the Indian Variant vs the 95% efficacy against original variant... and I'm wondering where Moderna stands on this, as well as others...
Astra Zeneca vaccine seems to be 60% efficacy against Indian variant. We probably don't have any data on Moderna since UK doesn't have Moderna and that's mainly where the Indian variant is? Is Moderna being used in India?

I just want to see some more stats comparing Moderna and Pfizer and efficacy rates over time... if anyone has seen any good sources please let me know, thanks

 

[lexluthermiester]

Things just got interesting;

Facebook no longer treating 'man-made' Covid as a crackpot idea

Facebook’s policy tweak arrives as support surges in Washington for a fuller investigation into the origins of Covid-19.

www.politico.com

 

[the54thvoid]

What FB does has no bearing on anything Covid related. They're just happy to allow more nonsense chatter. The only difference now is a more 'measured' approach is being taken that isn't quite as openly hostile.

There's a lot going on here that transcends simple politics but effectively, a conspiracy was previously 'supported' by someone in power. That led to rampant and practically racist behaviour. It also meant it was difficult to rationally discuss the problem of origin without being seen as 'allied' to the conspiracy. A lot of people stepped away from that discussion. Now, a more 'reasoned' approach is being taken, and scientists are more relaxed about getting involved.

 

[Space Lynx]

What FB does has no bearing on anything Covid related. They're just happy to allow more nonsense chatter. The only difference now is a more 'measured' approach is being taken that isn't quite as openly hostile.

There's a lot going on here that transcends simple politics but effectively, a conspiracy was previously 'supported' by someone in power. That led to rampant and practically racist behaviour. It also meant it was difficult to rationally discuss the problem of origin without being seen as 'allied' to the conspiracy. A lot of people stepped away from that discussion. Now, a more 'reasoned' approach is being taken, and scientists are more relaxed about getting involved.

Biden tells intelligence agencies to step up probe of COVID-19's origins, including theory of Wuhan lab leak

US intelligence is focused on animal-to-human transmission or a possible lab accident in Wuhan, China, as the coronavirus' starting point.

www.usatoday.com

As far as data of tracking Covid goes, Biden has ordered the Intelligence Community to report to him within 90 days. Apparently there is new evidence it may have come from lab. I understand your logic on this, but in America, if you even whispered the idea of it might have been a lab leak last year you were made fun of and ridiculed by the general public, I saw late night comedy hosts making fun of people for it too. Anyways, that's neither here nor there, but it is rather scary this might be an actual thing...

The hubris of humans...

 

[dragontamer5788]

555 new cases and 19 deaths.
The death toll is increasing daily now.

Taiwan reports 297 local COVID cases, 19 deaths, 258 retroactive cases | Taiwan News | May. 28, 2021 14:27

www.taiwannews.com.tw

Hmmm...

Taiwan has carried out 455,198 COVID-19 tests, with 397,534 coming back negative

That's 12% positive. That's not good. Taiwan is likely undertesting by significant margins. (Anything higher than 5% positive suggests that you aren't testing enough).

 

[TheLostSwede]

Hmmm...



That's 12% positive. That's not good. Taiwan is likely undertesting by significant margins. (Anything higher than 5% positive suggests that you aren't testing enough).

Oh, they are, as they are telling people not to get tested unless they have symptoms. They also don't have enough tests, made it illegal to sell tests online to end consumers and they might not have enough staff to do the tests.
Up here on the north side of the island shit is really starting to hit the fan and it's only going to get worse for some time, but the government is trying their best to stay away from a lockdown, as they know the companies are going to be pissed off.
That said, a lot of shops have closed voluntary, but I guess that also means the staff doesn't get paid...

 

[the54thvoid]

Oh, they are, as they are telling people not to get tested unless they have symptoms. They also don't have enough tests, made it illegal to sell tests online to end consumers and they might not have enough staff to do the tests.
Up here on the north side of the island shit is really starting to hit the fan and it's only going to get worse for some time, but the government is trying their best to stay away from a lockdown, as they know the companies are going to be pissed off.
That said, a lot of shops have closed voluntary, but I guess that also means the staff doesn't get paid...

TSMC..... Oh great. Chip shortage and price increases incoming.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Oh, they are, as they are telling people not to get tested unless they have symptoms. They also don't have enough tests, made it illegal to sell tests online to end consumers and they might not have enough staff to do the tests.

I mean, if you don't have enough tests, then those restrictions make sense. It makes sense to sacrifice the statistical / bean counting quality in favor of saving more lives / saving precious hospital beds for the incoming rush. (And if someone has a mild case, you want them to stay home, in the hopes that they don't need to use the hospital system's resources).

If you guys don't have enough tests today, it will take weeks or even months to import tests and ramp up the hospital system / testing framework. Obviously, it would have been ideal to have a testing posture ready a few months ago but... no point crying over spilled milk at this point.

 

[TheLostSwede]

TSMC..... Oh great. Chip shortage and price increases incoming.

Their closest fab is in Hsinchu which is about an hours drive from Taipei.

I mean, if you don't have enough tests, then those restrictions make sense. It makes sense to sacrifice the statistical / bean counting quality in favor of saving more lives / saving precious hospital beds for the incoming rush. (And if someone has a mild case, you want them to stay home, in the hopes that they don't need to use the hospital system's resources).

If you guys don't have enough tests today, it will take weeks or even months to import tests and ramp up the hospital system / testing framework. Obviously, it would have been ideal to have a testing posture ready a few months ago but... no point crying over spilled milk at this point.

Ah, you'd think so, but people are complaining that they don't get a hospital bed as soon as they get a cold, as it could be the virus. So now they have a situation where some of the hospitals are full... This is partially due to a few people that have been told to stay at home, have actually died before they've made it the hospital.

No need to import, they make them locally. Luckily Taiwan has been investing a lot in medical and biotech over the past decade or so, which means they have the resources to make most things. From what I read in the news, at least three companies are making the tests now and they expect this to solve the shortage.

You're correct that that Taiwan was overconfident and then reacted too slowly once the spread was a fact. Now it seems like they're trying to catch up, which isn't going to be a likely outcome. Hopefully they can contain the virus to the northern part of the island in as much as possible, but I believe that too is going to be hard.

 

[dragontamer5788]

You're correct that that Taiwan was overconfident and then reacted too slowly once the spread was a fact. Now it seems like they're trying to catch up, which isn't going to be a likely outcome. Hopefully they can contain the virus to the northern part of the island in as much as possible, but I believe that too is going to be hard.

Taiwan is still lucky that they're entering this period of growth in the spring/summer months. COVID19 undoubtedly spreads faster and harder during the cold winter months.

Is there any word which variant is most common? If its the UK variant, things will be very tough. If its the original variant, you'll have an easier time.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Taiwan is still lucky that they're entering this period of growth in the spring/summer months. COVID19 undoubtedly spreads faster and harder during the cold winter months.

Is there any word which variant is most common? If its the UK variant, things will be very tough. If its the original variant, you'll have an easier time.

No, they don't seem to be checking that, or at least it doesn't seem to matter to the press, as it's not being reported on.
According to this, it seems like at least some cases are of the UK variant.

COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

21 deaths since yesterday, so it's seemingly getting worse and worse.
493 new cases.
Taiwan is really using some creative accounting at this point, as it's 320 "new" cases, plus 166 "old" cases that the tests came through for and seven "imported" cases.

Taiwan reports 320 local COVID cases, 21 deaths, 166 backlog cases | Taiwan News | May. 29, 2021 14:29

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Tatty_Two]

I think the UK variant is pretty much worldwide now, a news piece this morning on TV also said that it's likely the Indian variant is also, whilst our infection rates are low the Indian variant now accounts for 75% of all new cases, probably because it is even more transmissible than the UK variant.

 

[HTC]

I think the UK variant is pretty much worldwide now, a news piece this morning on TV also said that it's likely the Indian variant is also, whilst our infection rates are low the Indian variant now accounts for 75% of all new cases, probably because it is even more transmissible than the UK variant.

Not being aggressive enough in tackling the CURRENT variants (not lifting the patents on the existing vaccines so that they get manufactured as soon as humanly possible) can lead to worse strains via mutations: if a new mutation gets a substantially higher R value (like 10+) or another new mutation gets much more severe symptoms for the same number of cases (not necessarily deaths as hospitalizations would be just as crippling), the effects we have been experiencing since this pandemic began could be just the tip of the iceberg ...

 

[Space Lynx]

Not being aggressive enough in tackling the CURRENT variants (not lifting the patents on the existing vaccines so that they get manufactured as soon as humanly possible) can lead to worse strains via mutations: if a new mutation gets a substantially higher R value (like 10+) or another new mutation gets much more severe symptoms for the same number of cases (not necessarily deaths as hospitalizations would be just as crippling), the effects we have been experiencing since this pandemic began could be just the tip of the iceberg ...

Normally I agree with patent protections, but Covid is a different beast that has capability of bringing down the entire world, as more and more mutations occur. I 100% agree for the betterment of mankind Pfizer and Moderna need to not only release how they made the vaccine but assist other countries in designing factories for it, etc. mRNA needed to happen overnight 6 months ago and its only in like very very small percentage of 1st world countries still.

imo Covid is going to be something that destroys us, we keep shrugging it off as just sniffles or asymptomatic in most people, lots of old dying sure, but keep in mind even if some miracle happened - 100% of USA vaccinated with mRNA, and lets say the following year that 100% all got their boosters, it still wouldn't matter unless the whole world stops plane travel, ship travel, etc. Covid is going to bounce around other countries that are not vaccinated for years to come, and eventually there is going to be a mutation again and again, until its the perfect combo, and guess what, those 100% vaccinated are going to get complacent... its human nature to become complacent. no masks... felt safe for two years... and BOOM the new mutation sneaks in at an airport just like the Indian variant snuck into the UK in 2021 even with all of those measure in place to prevent such a thing... it still found a way.

so... yeah I think things will go back to normal, at least for UK and USA and a few others for... a solid 2 years... depending how many take their boosters, but once complacency sets in, its back to the races and this time with a super beefed up strain.

I hope I am wrong. but the hubris of humans... who knows.

 

[HTC]

Normally I agree with patent protections, but Covid is a different beast that has capability of bringing down the entire world, as more and more mutations occur. I 100% agree for the betterment of mankind Pfizer and Moderna need to not only release how they made the vaccine but assist other countries in designing factories for it, etc. mRNA needed to happen overnight 6 months ago and its only in like very very small percentage of 1st world countries still.

imo Covid is going to be something that destroys us, we keep shrugging it off as just sniffles or asymptomatic in most people, lots of old dying sure, but keep in mind even if some miracle happened - 100% of USA vaccinated with mRNA, and lets say the following year that 100% all got their boosters, it still wouldn't matter unless the whole world stops plane travel, ship travel, etc. Covid is going to bounce around other countries that are not vaccinated for years to come, and eventually there is going to be a mutation again and again, until its the perfect combo, and guess what, those 100% vaccinated are going to get complacent... its human nature to become complacent. no masks... felt safe for two years... and BOOM the new mutation sneaks in at an airport just like the Indian variant snuck into the UK in 2021 even with all of those measure in place to prevent such a thing... it still found a way.

so... yeah I think things will go back to normal, at least for UK and USA and a few others for... a solid 2 years... depending how many take their boosters, but once complacency sets in, its back to the races and this time with a super beefed up strain.

I hope I am wrong. but the hubris of humans... who knows.

Agreed: this damn virus is far too dangerous NOT to do it.

We MAY get lucky and the worst mutations we get are the current identified mutations but ... if we're unlucky and a new "nastier" mutation surfaces, MORE resistant to CURRENT vaccines ...