Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[dragontamer5788]

Here come the hospitalizations... (WashPo reporting)

 

[dragontamer5788]

- 1 vaccine dose only --- 7059701 * 100 / 8636198 = 67.72%
- fully vaccinated --- (5851054 - 2880) * 100 / 8636198 = 81.75%

My math is right ... right?

A quickie "spot check", but those two numbers don't make sense to me at all. Maybe 81% "at least 1 dose", and 67% "fully vaccinated" would make sense. But, something is just weird with those numbers, so I don't like them.

 

[Space Lynx]

and no one seems to care about that the previously had covid with symptoms + 1 dose stats. 5.7 trillion dollars, record profits, and none of them have time to get that data though... lol seems funny to me.

 

[HTC]

A quickie "spot check", but those two numbers don't make sense to me at all. Maybe 81% "at least 1 dose", and 67% "fully vaccinated" would make sense. But, something is just weird with those numbers, so I don't like them.

You're right: they're swapped ... my bad

Fixed.

 

[dragontamer5788]

and no one seems to care about that the previously had covid with symptoms + 1 dose stats. 5.7 trillion dollars, record profits, and none of them have time to get that data though... lol seems funny to me.

We haven't even figured out the correct dosage levels for 12-and-under children yet. It takes months to run these trials and tests at the FDA / CDC levels required to be confident of the results. There's also the tests for the 4th vaccine: Novavax (a traditional vaccine: takes a lot longer to develop but maybe this will get the remaining anti-vaxxers in line).

After that, I'd say the next major test is to start figuring out whether a 3rd shot (maybe a new booster-formula) can be made to reduce the transmissibility of Delta. Too many questions. I personally don't think your question is important enough to warrant a significant amount of resources expended. We know that 2-doses works and that 2-doses is safe. We're literally sitting on millions of expiring doses here in the USA (https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/20...9-vaccine-doses-as-expiration-dates-approach/), so its not like other countries who don't have enough vaccines. (Those countries care about conserving the few doses they have, so it makes sense for them to study that question).

But why take 1-dose ever here in the USA? There's no science suggesting 1-dose is better in any way than 2 doses. Its different for a drug like J&J's: which was tested as a single-dose from the beginning. To use the mRNA drugs designed as 2-doses (and tested as 2-doses) as a single-dose just doesn't make sense to me.

We have enough to give everyone the 2-doses needed to match our highly scientific, 30,000+ or 40,000+ person tests. The question is now about how those 2-dose regiments (which have been applied to hundreds of millions of people) will react to Delta (and how it may change given a 3rd dose... maybe a new mRNA formula more specifically made for Delta?)

 

[Xzibit]

@lynx29 Maybe you'll be pleased with this mask msg

He is part of the Covid taskforce so it might further confuse people and anger others.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422332496616726536

 

[the54thvoid]

Here's what Dr Osterholm says about vaccines in the current pandemic.

The mRNA vaccine technology, and how it was brought forward, was nothing short of a modern public health Manhattan Project success. Now what we need, however, is a second Manhattan Project with a Marshall Plan attached to it. The second Manhattan Project is, how are we going to manufacture enough vaccine for the world? Because this is no longer just about humanitarian aid. That is critical and should be front and center. But this is about protecting the integrity of our current vaccines, as you have so very thoughtfully taught us over recent weeks. It's still unclear what these variants are doing to vaccine protection. I don't think it's nearly as bad as some might think it is, but what's the next variant to come down the pike? We need to stop transmission globally — not just for humanitarian reasons, but to protect the integrity and the functionality of these current vaccines.

Edit.

And reading his mask discussion isn't anything new. Basically in a room with 15 minutes exposure, a standard cotton mask will give you 5 extra minutes of protection. So really, 33% longer. An N95 mask, as in medical scenarios, is 24 hours.

I'm in England at the moment and I'm not wearing a mask (I don't have to). But I'm vaccinated. And I'm not in busy enclosed spaces with young folk. I'm quite happy that way.

What the good Dr pushes, though, is distancing and vaccinations.

 

[dragontamer5788]

And reading his mask discussion isn't anything new. Basically in a room with 15 minutes exposure, a standard cotton mask will give you 5 extra minutes of protection. So really, 33% longer. An N95 mask, as in medical scenarios, is 24 hours.

Given what I've seen of cotton masks: 15-minutes unprotected would probably be equivalent to 30-minutes with a well made cotton mask.

N95 is only 95% effective (the higher grade N99 masks or N100 masks are too expensive for widespread deployment). That means 300-minutes of exposure with N95 protection is equivalent to 15-minutes of unprotected exposure, no where close to the 24-hours you suggest. (You'd need an N99 mask to achieve 24-hours equivalent protection to 15-minutes raw exposure)

IIRC, N100 is 99.7% effective (not really 100% effective), or thereabouts.

In any case, the N95 shortage is basically over. I suggest buying N95 now if you're gonna mask up. No reason to stick with cotton masks anymore.

 

[Xzibit]

Here's what Dr Osterholm says about vaccines in the current pandemic.

We are currently in the mist of Mask and Vaccine mandates discussions and hes not making friends.

CDC director manage to get people confused last week and this week Osterholm is not only adding to it. Hes admitting they have never been clear with the msg. Not only in mask but in others in place that do very little for protection.

He might not be giving interviews for awhile

 

[ShiBDiB]

Work on a military base in NY, we just got told masks are mandatory again regardless of vaccination status starting tomorrow.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Work on a military base in NY, we just got told masks are mandatory again regardless of vaccination status starting tomorrow.

My work is requiring masks as well. I just ran out of my N95 (gave a bunch out a few months ago, thinking I didn't need em anymore). I decided to go for those "Duckbill" masks from Accumed posted a bit earlier in this topic. They are available from Amazon, but they're also available on Accumed's website.

30-Pack N95 Respirator (NIOSH), FDA Cleared Surgical Respirator Mask, Medical Grade Disposable Particulate Filtering Respirator (30 Count)

30-Pack N95 Respirator (NIOSH), FDA Cleared Surgical Respirator Mask, Medical Grade Disposable Particulate Filtering Respirator (30 Count)

accumed.com

Amazon.com: BN - Aero Pro N95 Mask Respirator (NIOSH) - 30-Pack -Made in Taiwan - AP0028 Duckbill Style Safety Face Mask, Air Filtration Anti Dust Mask, Disposable Particulate Filtering Respirator : Tools & Home Improvement

Amazon.com: BN - Aero Pro N95 Mask Respirator (NIOSH) - 30-Pack -Made in Taiwan - AP0028 Duckbill Style Safety Face Mask, Air Filtration Anti Dust Mask, Disposable Particulate Filtering Respirator : Tools & Home Improvement

www.amazon.com

$30 from accumed.com, $40 from Amazon right now. $1 to $1.25 per mask is cheap for N95. The duckbill style looks kinda silly though, but I don't really care. I do prefer the N95 style "headbands" that wrap all around the back of your head, instead of tugging on your ears all day (KN95 are all ear-loops that really hurt my ears over time...).

My previous buy was from industrial stores (ULine in particular). Moldex 2200N95 was pretty good but is a "stiff" mask. I think the duckbill might be superior because it'd be easier for me to fold it up and store it in my car and/or bag. A "stiff" mask like the 2200N95 is very inconvenient when you take the mask off (ex: to eat or drink).

 

[ShiBDiB]

My work is requiring masks as well. I just ran out of my N95 (gave a bunch out a few months ago, thinking I didn't need em anymore). I decided to go for those "Duckbill" masks from Accumed posted a bit earlier in this topic. They are available from Amazon, but they're also available on Accumed's website.

I'll just go back to wearing a neck gaiter... I'm vaccinated, in shape, and besides enjoying too many IPA's relatively healthy.

 

[Deleted member 24505]

Being in shape or healthy makes no difference to covid. I have heard of the most fit and healthy people dying of it. Being vaccinated and wearing a mask if in close proximity to other people matters.

That stupid Florida politician, i'm fit and healthy so i'm fine, have not been vaccinated and don't wear a mask. I hate to say it, but i hope he catches covid. He will see how stupid he is, when he's on a ventilator.

 

[Xzibit]

Being in shape or healthy makes no difference to covid. I have heard of the most fit and healthy people dying of it. Being vaccinated and wearing a mask if in close proximity to other people matters.

That stupid Florida politician, i'm fit and healthy so i'm fine, have not been vaccinated and don't wear a mask. I hate to say it, but i hope he catches covid. He will see how stupid he is, when he's on a ventilator.

You sure? Cause the CDC already made it be known awhile ago

About 78% of people who have been hospitalized, needed a ventilator or died from Covid-19 have been overweight or obese, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a new study Monday.

 

[R-T-B]

Hes admitting they have never been clear with the msg. Not only in mask but in others in place that do very little for protection.

I'm not sure what part of this I am supposed to be upset about, because frankly, he's spot on. The messaging is half the issue here.

 

[R-T-B]

You sure? Cause the CDC already made it be known awhile ago

To be fair, that's hardly eliminating the risk for the healthy.

 

[ShiBDiB]

To be fair, that's hardly eliminating the risk for the healthy.

It puts it in the same likelihood as a healthy person being hospitalized from the flu.

I'm in the, take whatever precautions you yourself feel necessary and let me do the same, mindset. I got the shots (along with 70% of the country seems to be doing) and I'm in a very low risk category if you actually look at the science and not the media reports.

 

[R-T-B]

It puts it in the same likelihood as a healthy person being hospitalized from the flu.

I'm not questioning that this is possible, but as this is a stats threads, stats?

 

[ShiBDiB]

I'm not questioning that this is possible, but as this is a stats threads, stats?

It is a stats thread.. and you've been questioning all the stats provided

 

[R-T-B]

It is a stats thread.. and you've been questioning all the stats provided

No. I just asked for stats that as far as I can tell, have not been provided for your claim. This is how science works.

I have not questioned any stats here for their value in their relevant studies.

I'm not sure I have even questioned a single stat yet, actually...

 

[ShiBDiB]

I'm not questioning that this is possible, but as this is a stats threads, stats?

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

Table 1, we have ~10k people 0-40 died while having covid, with only 4500 having died with pneumonia and also covid (making covid the more likely cause of death rather than a secondary/tertiary cause)

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Surveillance — United States ...

This report describes the most common underlying health conditions among COVID-19 cases in the United States as of May 30, 2020.

www.cdc.gov

Reports deaths being ~12x higher in people with underlying conditions.

COVID-19: Who's at higher risk of serious symptoms?

Advanced age and some health conditions can raise the risk of serious COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) illness.

www.mayoclinic.org

Covers underlying conditions increasing risk


Granted the CDC's fancy data tracker is actually kind of a pain in the dick to get anything besides vague data.

tldr; If you're a healthy younger person with no underlying health issues, get the vaccine and worry more about getting hit by a car crossing the street. If you're in an at risk group, take the necessary precautions that you're comfortable taking. Both sides need to stop shaming eachother.

 

[Space Lynx]

Does anyone have any new stats in last week or so of previous covid infections that then got the 1 shot? From what I remember, several countries, Germany, France, and also private companies like NFL state if you previously had covid you only need 1 shot of the pfizer. I also remember posting a link to about 50 small studies, some of them from very reputable journals/clinics and they all seemed to agree on this.

I just was wondering if anyone has seen any new info on it in last week or so. If not its cool, I'm just trying to keep an eye on it, if the data changes I will get second shot. So far everything I have read says I am sitting good like a pumpkin pie cooling down on a window sill

 

[dragontamer5788]

Table 1, we have ~10k people 0-40 died while having covid, with only 4500 having died with pneumonia and also covid (making covid the more likely cause of death rather than a secondary/tertiary cause)

You misunderstand the point of the CDC publishing graphs like that.

The suggestion is that those pneumonia counts are in fact COVID19 deaths that have been mislabeled. People didn't suddenly start dying of pneumonia in high numbers in 2020. They were dying of COVID19, and likely were miscategorized as a pneumonia death.

COVID19 also kills with other deaths not necessarily related to pneumonia. So your proposition to subtracting out non-pneumonia COVID deaths is pretty arbitrary. Acute Renal Failure is another cause of death IIRC associated with COVID19.

Table 1 Clinical causes of death and documented comorbidities in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

www.nature.com

Lets take case #1: death by Hypoxia (suffocation), and ARDS (acute respitory distress syndrome), but no pneumonia at all. Why do you remove case #1 from your counts?

Case #8 is the Cardiovascular failure. Plenty of Septic Shock. How many of these cases do you want to remove from the COVID19 death counts?

 

[ShiBDiB]

Why do you remove case #1 from your counts?

You linked a chart with people who have a laundry list of pre-existing conditions. The case you reference alone lists 5 (along with falling outside of the age group being discussed). To compare people with that medical history to a healthy young adult is asinine.

 

[R-T-B]

You linked a chart with people who have a laundry list of pre-existing conditions. The case you reference alone lists 5 (along with falling outside of the age group being discussed). To compare people with that medical history to a healthy young adult is asinine.

Yes, for the specific case I was asking for you are spot on.