Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Space Lynx]

Almost no one wears a mask where I live. New Covid cases are way up. Hospitalizations, ICU patients and death toll is up.
Only 39% of people in my state have been double vaccinated.

Yep, I am only one in my county that wears a mask anymore. People look at me funny. My county has a 70% vaccination rate, but I don't care. I'm wearing probably until the day I die at this point. Even if Covid is eradicated in say 3 years by some miracle. I'm still wearing it, We are overdue for a super flu, some kind of massive bird flu, or anything at this point. No one in my entire life has ever talked to me in a grocery store anyway, so why the hell would I care what anyone thinks. Just there to get my food and get out, and back to gaming or cycling or kayaking. YOLO BOYS

 

[R-T-B]

YOLO BOYS

I always say that right before I die in video games... maybe better word choice is called for...

Seriously, I'm with you though. Masking even well after this is over. Many benefits, few downsides.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Only 10 cases today, but a dozen deaths.

Taiwan reports 6 local COVID cases, 12 deaths | Taiwan News | Aug. 7, 2021 14:18

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Space Lynx]

Only 10 cases today, but a dozen deaths.

Taiwan reports 6 local COVID cases, 12 deaths | Taiwan News | Aug. 7, 2021 14:18

www.taiwannews.com.tw

the math on that doesn't make sense. very odd

 

[TheLostSwede]

the math on that doesn't make sense. very odd

Well, there's no real testing going on, so what do you expect?

 

[Space Lynx]

Well, there's no real testing going on, so what do you expect?

I suppose you don't need testing if everyone is wearing a mask and social distancing. I don't know.

 

[TheLostSwede]

I suppose you don't need testing if everyone is wearing a mask and social distancing. I don't know.

There's no such thing as social distancing here, people seem to gravitate towards each other here and bump into each other like they're part of some kind human game of bumper cars...
I have literally stood still and have had people smack their face straight into my chest as if I wasn't there...
So no, social distancing isn't a thing here, but until recently, people have mostly been staying at home, but now they lowered the restrictions, as the companies are complaining that their offices are empty... I don't expect it to last long though.
Masks seem to help, but only to a point.

 

[Xzibit]

UK August 6 briefing

(Feb 1 2021 - Aug 2 2021)
Delta Cases
Full Vaccinated - 47,008
UnVaccinated - 151,054

Deaths
Full Vaccinated - 402
UnVaccinated - 253

-

Here comes my bad math.

Fatal %
Full Vaccinated - 0.856
UnVaccinated - 0.168

Survival %
Full Vaccinated - 99.144
UnVaccinated - 99.832

-

 

[HTC]

UK August 6 briefing

Delta Cases
Full Vaccinated - 47,008
UnVaccinated - 151,054

Deaths
Full Vaccinated - 402
UnVaccinated - 253

-

Here comes my bad math.

Fatal %
Full Vaccinated - 0.856
UnVaccinated - 0.168

Survival %
Full Vaccinated - 99.144
UnVaccinated - 99.832

Today's deaths don't correlate to today's cases: you should compare VS the cases from 3 to 4 weeks ago, and then do the math.

Portugal's cases have been dropping since last week but, except for the slight decrease from last week, deaths keep increasing: 2 days left until i make my usual weekly report and Portugal already has 2 more deaths this week than last week, in total.

 

[Xzibit]

Today's deaths don't correlate to today's cases: you should compare VS the cases from 3 to 4 weeks ago, and then do the math.

Portugal's cases have been dropping since last week but, except for the slight decrease from last week, deaths keep increasing: 2 days left until i make my usual weekly report and Portugal already has 2 more deaths this week than last week, in total.

Briefing is from yesterday. Numbers are from Feb 1 2021 - Aug 2 2021 (6 months). I'll add to clarify.

 

[the54thvoid]

UK August 6 briefing

(Feb 1 2021 - Aug 2 2021)
Delta Cases
Full Vaccinated - 47,008
UnVaccinated - 151,054

Deaths
Full Vaccinated - 402
UnVaccinated - 253

-

Here comes my bad math.

Fatal %
Full Vaccinated - 0.856
UnVaccinated - 0.168

Survival %
Full Vaccinated - 99.144
UnVaccinated - 99.832

Dates are out. I think those figures are for one week.

 

[HTC]

Dates are out. I think those figures are for one week.

Makes sense: then he ought to compare this week's deaths VS 3 to 4 weeks new cases, since that's around the time that between case being detected and the fatality outcome.

 

[the54thvoid]

Also, our Vax rate is massive. Most cases will be from vaccinated people.

Pfizer is about 80% effective against Delta. With even 66million (UK pop) fully vaxxed, that's still 13 million possible cases.

 

[HTC]

Portugal had a total of 77 deaths last week and 17878 cases, as per my report: 3 to 4 weeks earlier, we had 18886 and 14541 new cases respectively.

Since Portugal had quite an increase in new cases before they began to drop again, we're expecting the deaths to climb further before beginning to drop. HOWEVER, we've been increasing our vaccination which WILL reduce the number of deaths, with the question being: by how much.

There's no data about percent of vaccinated VS non-vaccinated that are hospitalized / dead: if there is, i don't have access to it.

 

[Xzibit]

I added the chart so you two can debate it.

 

[the54thvoid]

I added the chart so you two can debate it.

Still confused by the date range. Delta wasn't known till April.

However, from that table, check out the age split. Under 50's unvaxxed are hammered by Delta. Under 50's vaxxed look well protected.

 

[64K]

Here in my county. Age group, number of cases and percent of reported cases:

0-10
3116
6%

---

11-20
6506
13%

---

21-30
9654
20%

---

31-40
7702
16%

---

41-50
6808
14%

---

51-60
6279
13%

---

61-70
4460
9%

---

71-80
2474
5%

---

81+
1262
3%

 

[Xzibit]

Here is another interesting chart.

For reference
SGTF = Alpha variant
AII3P = Delta variant

This means that whilst vaccination may reduce an individual’s overall risk of becoming infected, once they are infected there is limited difference in viral load (and Ct values) between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated. Given they have similar Ct values, this suggests limited difference in infectiousness.

For Alpha differences varied in late May early June things started to shift
For Delta something happened in April for the differences to start closing

Interesting that Unvaccinated improved with Alpha & Vaccinated diminished with Delta

 

[R-T-B]

Viral load does indeed seem similar, but symptoms seem lesser amonst the vaccinated from what I understand. Interesting regardless. Defininitely important to understanding how the virus spreads.

 

[Space Lynx]

UK August 6 briefing

(Feb 1 2021 - Aug 2 2021)
Delta Cases
Full Vaccinated - 47,008
UnVaccinated - 151,054

Deaths
Full Vaccinated - 402
UnVaccinated - 253

-

Here comes my bad math.

Fatal %
Full Vaccinated - 0.856
UnVaccinated - 0.168

Survival %
Full Vaccinated - 99.144
UnVaccinated - 99.832

-

View attachment 211570

does this mean the vaccine does nothing? wth...

 

[dragontamer5788]

does this mean the vaccine does nothing? wth...

I already told you specifically about Simpson's paradox. But give it a think, its probably more fun to figure it out on your own.

Spoiler: Hint

Hint: is there something that correlates with death more strongly than the vaccine? And is there a cross-correlation between this mysterious subcategory, and whether or not people decide to take the vaccine?

Spoiler: Answer

Old people got vaccinated at far higher rates than young people. Even if vaccinated, old people will die in larger rates than young people. However, the vaccine still saved the lives of countless old people. If you collate the deaths by age and vaccination status: it becomes obvious that the vaccine helps, but age remains a major issue. In either case: we've measured that the vaccine saves approximately 98% of lives and that remains a constant.

As it turns out, people with a higher chance to die have decided to largely take the vaccine at higher rates than people who have a lower chance to die.

EDIT: This is why we run experiments and have control groups. You gotta control for factors like this in an experiment. Just running the statistics after-the-fact has all sorts of paradoxes involved that make arguments and discussions very difficult.

 

[the54thvoid]

does this mean the vaccine does nothing? wth...

No. 40 million people are fully vaccinated in the UK. Delta is prevalent. Vaccine efficacy is lower, so perhaps 20% of those people may become infected. 20% of 40 million is 8 million infections. Of that number, some will die, almost all over 50, usually far older groups with underlying issues.

Unvaxxed younger people are more likely to die from Delta.

If the UK wasn't so quick to vaccinate, we'd be in deep shit right now. If I was at home I'd post the graphs of the January (non Delta) surge and deaths, versus our summer Delta surge. The difference is staggering. Pre-vaccination, daily deaths rose as high as four figures on several occasions. This summer, with higher cases, deaths mostly stayed in double digits.

Don't be put off by select graphs. Look at the bigger picture of then and now to draw conclusions. As I've said, it's a numbers game and very soon, those few unvaccinated people will appear on graphs as blips but that's only because the UK has so few unvaccinated people.

In fact, using vaxxed versus unvaxxed is not statistically relevant now without comparing to previous surges.

 

[the54thvoid]

Should add, a fully vaccinated person is less likely to get infected. If they do, they can still transmit the same viral load as the unvaccinated. But the point being, another vaccinated person is less likely to get infected. What you have is a chain of reduced transmission because of the vaccine.

Tag onto that the known reductions in hospitalisations, as shown by UK figures, and those far reduced deaths.

The vaccines were created to allow us to move forward. There was never a promise of complete immunity.

 

[Xzibit]

No. 40 million people are fully vaccinated in the UK. Delta is prevalent. Vaccine efficacy is lower, so perhaps 20% of those people may become infected. 20% of 40 million is 8 million infections. Of that number, some will die, almost all over 50, usually far older groups with underlying issues.

Unvaxxed younger people are more likely to die from Delta.

If the UK wasn't so quick to vaccinate, we'd be in deep shit right now. If I was at home I'd post the graphs of the January (non Delta) surge and deaths, versus our summer Delta surge. The difference is staggering. Pre-vaccination, daily deaths rose as high as four figures on several occasions. This summer, with higher cases, deaths mostly stayed in double digits.

Don't be put off by select graphs. Look at the bigger picture of then and now to draw conclusions. As I've said, it's a numbers game and very soon, those few unvaccinated people will appear on graphs as blips but that's only because the UK has so few unvaccinated people.

In fact, using vaxxed versus unvaxxed is not statistically relevant now without comparing to previous surges.

1) Obviously there are more Unvaccinated people in that group. I'll include the most recent data below..
Getting back to the graph if you just run the numbers on the below fifth

Fatal % <50
Full Vaccinated - 0.051
UnVaccinated - 0.033

Survival % <50
Full Vaccinated - 99.949
UnVaccinated - 99.967

Numbers from the UK are similar to the US CDC ACIP preventative ones I posted a few pages back.


2) Lets see what your government had to say about that comparison in the same briefing

case fatality rates are not comparable across variants

Might want to take it up with them


UK Vaccination rates by age group

 

[Space Lynx]

1) Obviously there are more Unvaccinated people in that group. I'll include the most recent data below..
Getting back to the graph if you just run the numbers on the below fifth

Fatal % <50
Full Vaccinated - 0.051
UnVaccinated - 0.033

Survival % <50
Full Vaccinated - 99.949
UnVaccinated - 99.967

Numbers from the UK are similar to the US CDC ACIP preventative ones I posted a few pages back.


2) Lets see what your government had to say about that comparison in the same briefing

Might want to take it up with them


UK Vaccination rates by age group

View attachment 211743

Lot of people in UK have not been scheduled for their second vaccination yet, this was not their choice. My friend who lives there is 35 and only recently got her second shot, just this week I believe. It goes by age over there, and unlike USA, they still do not have surplus shots. in USA we were spoiled with so many shots, and lot of numpkins not even willing to get one jab.