Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Space Lynx]

I've tried that and oddly enough the Government still wants money so it's hard to live off the land without an income, if you own the land, might be different if you squat and totally go off the grid.

New Hampshire man in jail after squatting for 30 years in woods

A New Hampshire man was arrested after being accused for squatting on private property for almost three decades.

news.yahoo.com

It worked for him for 30 years! lol... he never bothered anyone. never left any trash. yet while he was in jail, "mysteriously his place burned down" after 30 years of building it up.

The Judge from what I read didn't even seem mad at him for it, but the law is the law.

but yes, at end of the day you are right. he probably never would have been caught if he didn't keep inviting strangers in to tell his story. lol at least I read that is what he did a lot. everyone seemed to like him, even the local townsfolk. this guy is like 1776 hardcore and I love it. LOL

There's no escaping Covid. You can live in an isolated cabin but you are still going to need some food that you can't get from growing on your property or hunting so into town you go. You're going to need fuel so into town you go. You're going to need clothes and shoes so into town you go. You're going to need medical appointments and prescriptions so into town you go. You're going to need dental work so into town you go. Family members are going to pass away occasionally so you would have to go to funerals and also possibly have to fly on crowded airlines.

the food thing is the main problem yes, though if one were to save up say 50 grand over several years working, then just have food delivered to a relative once in awhile, and you pick it up off their porch... (yes I am aware still a chance for exposure even if you sprayed it all down, but minimal), that 50 grand should last you a long time on food though, assuming you don't eat extravagantly and its only helping you support your growing that you do in a little greenhouse, etc...

no need for fuel. wood and and nearby creek as water source is all needed there.

I still have clothes I wear that are 20 years old that fit me fine. same with shoes, I can just stock up on those and have a little wood building just for that small stockpile.

I need medical appointments now for my scoliosis but can't do them so I mean eh

Dental work is a bit of a pickle I admit, you got me there. If having bad pain, it would heck to live with it.


that being said... this was all hypothetical and I am just having fun with it. at end of day... I would love a little weekend nature get away though. work remote, plus a weekend nature get away would still limit my expose by A LOT!!! wouldn't be failproof def not, but my odds would be way higher of not getting it than the next guy.

also, I literally don't get out much even before covid. i like being a homebody, enjoying my games and books and card games, gardening, etc. my only problem is I don't make enough just yet to get on my own with a small house on outskirts of small town. that's my dream really. I currently live with 3 other people, one of which is my Dad who never took covid seriously and gave it to all of us in November 2020. so. yeah. I want to live on my own.

mods about to be mad though at the essay I just wrote for fun... so I go now...

 

[the54thvoid]

I've been waiting to get back to a PC...

There's been a lot of numbers getting thrown around about vaccines and how effective they are. Some appear to suggest the vaccines are no more effective than no vaccine. But the epidemiological evidence does not support that. As the UK is 75% fully vaxxed (adults), the majoprity of cases in an 80% effective vaccine will be from vaccinated people. What the stats fail to show is the experience within hospitals where cases from vaccinated patients are less severe.

The following numbers come from Public Health Scotland (5 million population).

Week beginning 2nd August (7 day data), 4 weeks after the huge July peak:

24 deaths, age brackets:
85+ = 11 (46%)
75-84 = 6 (25%)
65-74 = 1 (4%)
45-64 = 6 (25%)
<45 = no deaths

Week beginning February 1st (7 day data), 4 weeks after the cases peaked (at a far lower count than our July 'World Cup' spreader event)

304 deaths, age brackets:
85+ = 115 (38%)
75-84 = 114 (37%)
65-74 = 48 (16%)
45-64 = 25 (8%)
25-44 = 2 (<1%)

After mass vaccinations, with a higher recorded rate of cases, including the delta variant, current deaths are 8% that of January's figure.

Context has to be used when measuring data, and looking back at pre-vaccine statistics is essential to making an informed opinion. The majority of the UK is now partially or fully vaccinated (and also recovered) against Covid. This is how 'performance reporting' works - you need a prior benchmark to gauge effectiveness of any solution. Using the publicly available data, it's clear the vaccines have worked well. Not perfectly but very, very, well.

It's also important to take into consideration, the figures from August reflect a period when we had very few rules in place, compared to January (full lockdown after a short opening at Christmas). We're seeing an uptick in cases again though as the majority of people get back to business. And that's another point, we're going to see higher case numbers and deaths as more people meet up again. But referring to the first numbers, 75% of Scottish deaths last week were in the over 65's. And our general health is the worst in Europe.

 

[nguyen]

I've been waiting to get back to a PC...

There's been a lot of numbers getting thrown around about vaccines and how effective they are. Some appear to suggest the vaccines are no more effective than no vaccine. But the epidemiological evidence does not support that. As the UK is 75% fully vaxxed (adults), the majoprity of cases in an 80% effective vaccine will be from vaccinated people. What the stats fail to show is the experience within hospitals where cases from vaccinated patients are less severe.

The following numbers come from Public Health Scotland (5 million population).

Week beginning 2nd August (7 day data), 4 weeks after the huge July peak:

24 deaths, age brackets:
85+ = 11 (46%)
75-84 = 6 (25%)
65-74 = 1 (4%)
45-64 = 6 (25%)
<45 = no deaths

Week beginning February 1st (7 day data), 4 weeks after the cases peaked (at a far lower count than our July 'World Cup' spreader event)

304 deaths, age brackets:
85+ = 115 (38%)
75-84 = 114 (37%)
65-74 = 48 (16%)
45-64 = 25 (8%)
25-44 = 2 (<1%)

After mass vaccinations, with a higher recorded rate of cases, including the delta variant, current deaths are 8% that of January's figure.

Context has to be used when measuring data, and looking back at pre-vaccine statistics is essential to making an informed opinion. The majority of the UK is now partially or fully vaccinated (and also recovered) against Covid. This is how 'performance reporting' works - you need a prior benchmark to gauge effectiveness of any solution. Using the publicly available data, it's clear the vaccines have worked well. Not perfectly but very, very, well.

It's also important to take into consideration, the figures from August reflect a period when we had very few rules in place, compared to January (full lockdown after a short opening at Christmas). We're seeing an uptick in cases again though as the majority of people get back to business. And that's another point, we're going to see higher case numbers and deaths as more people meet up again. But referring to the first numbers, 75% of Scottish deaths last week were in the over 65's. And our general health is the worst in Europe.

Yeah my entire family and I just got the first dose of vaccine, which I think is most important against serious illness from Covid, second dose is mostly to reduce the rate of spreading. I guess my country is learning from the UK, just get the first dose out ASAP, second dose can wait.

 

[TheLostSwede]

16 cases today, up from seven yesterday...

Taiwan reports 12 local COVID cases, 2 deaths | Taiwan News | Aug. 11, 2021 14:31

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Vayra86]

If they didn't pick up delta on current tests yes they are not good enough no spin involved it's fact.
Bugger test was never any good.

The virus mutates. So you may have a perfect test for Delta and all the others today, and tomorrow a new mutation slips through and you're effectively back at square one, you can repeat your argument ad infinitum that way.

Pretty pointless. The same thing goes for vaccines, but vaccination has a lasting effect while a test is just a momentary status check.

End of the day, we're gonna have to live with it being present. Do you want to keep testing for entry everywhere? What's the point? We're all fucked anyway and vaccination is the only true measure of protection.

 

[Xzibit]

​

TT: Herd immunity a ‘mythical’ goal that will never be reached, says Oxford vaccine head​

Herd immunity “is not a possibility” because the delta variant can spread among vaccinated individuals, according to experts including the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group.

In a parliamentary panel on Tuesday, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard warned that herd immunity is a “mythical” concept and should not inform the design of vaccination programmes in the UK or across the globe.

Mounting evidence that jabs don't halt transmission​

Data published last week by Public Health England found there is little difference in how much virus is present in vaccinated and unvaccinated people who test positive for Covid-19, suggesting the shots do not suppress viral replication as much as hoped. Scientists had believed that a lower viral load would prevent onward transmission.

The study chimes with evidence from the United States, where a recent study of an outbreak in Massachusetts found viral loads were similar among 127 fully vaccinated people and 84 others who were unvaccinated.

 

[moproblems99]

Doesn't sound like a whole lot of statistics here people. Topic.

 

[yotano211]

They locked down the nursing homes in my small town again, for the first time in a long long time. Odd too, because my county is 70% vaccinated (more I think now actually, its been awhile since I checked on it). Surprised they locked down the nursing homes, all the nursing home patients have both jabs. They should simply require a CDC card showing you had both jabs before you can enter imo, besides isolating already lonely people...

Honestly, this most recent development, and it being so local. Is really confusing the crap out of me. I literally can't stand covid anymore.

So who wants to go half and half on a cabin in the woods and grow our own food and chill and read and swim in a pond?

Or buy a sailboat and go live on remote islands and eat coconuts and fish. @yotano211 LOL

You still need to maintain that boat. Salt eats away at anything inside and outside on a boat.

 

[ThrashZone]

The virus mutates. So you may have a perfect test for Delta and all the others today, and tomorrow a new mutation slips through and you're effectively back at square one, you can repeat your argument ad infinitum that way.

Pretty pointless. The same thing goes for vaccines, but vaccination has a lasting effect while a test is just a momentary status check.

End of the day, we're gonna have to live with it being present. Do you want to keep testing for entry everywhere? What's the point? We're all fucked anyway and vaccination is the only true measure of protection.

Hi,
Testing is already being done quite a bit so the beat goes on problem is it's very flawed
Vaccination also deteriorates over time so what a jab or two every 6 months lol

 

[Vayra86]

Hi,
Testing is already being done quite a bit so the beat goes on problem is it's very flawed
Vaccination also deteriorates over time so what a jab or two every 6 months lol

A yearly jab? I wouldnt discount the possibility and influenza is in the same place already... 6 months is a much harder one to swallow, seeing as you do notice it for a day or two.

But yeah. The debate is already on about 3rd booster shots. Personally Ive been saying this since mid 2020. It will happen and is, as we speak.

Opposite direction is China that still thinks they can hammer it down banning all cases and then stop dancing. We'll be dancing though, make no mistake and even China will change its stance.

 

[64K]

That 3rd shot is most likely going to happen and a yearly booster as well that could possibly boost immunity to whatever variants are around.

 

[moproblems99]

More posts, less topic. If you would like to discuss vaccines and their efficacy, there is a thread in the lounge for that. The op would politely ask that you stick to the topic at hand.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
That's what I've run across these dual shots deteriorate after 6 months down to 40% effective
So yeah another every 6 months is where things are going seeing not many stats have stated when these delta cases on vaccinated people got their shots

They've even stated people that got the J&J single shot can get the other vaccines too heck it was only 60% effective out the gate on it's single jab so it dropping to less than 40% after six months is very likely.

 

[the54thvoid]

​

TT: Herd immunity a ‘mythical’ goal that will never be reached, says Oxford vaccine head​

Even more important to get vaccinated then. From the article:

vaccines may slightly slow the transmission process, as there is some evidence that inoculated people are infectious for a shorter period of time, but warned “we don't have anything” which will completely halt the spread of Covid-19.

While vaccines have been shown to protect against severe illness, hospitalisation and deaths, mounting data suggests they do not halt transmission.

..
other experts have stressed that, even with similar loads, vaccinated people are unlikely to transmit at the same rate as those unvaccinated - and more research is needed to confirm the research.


“Even if viral load may be the same, vaccinated people who become infected are less likely to be infectious than unvaccinated because vaccines reduce virus shedding time, symptomatic infection, and the presence of immune response will suppress the viable virus,” said Dr Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and virology at St Andrews University.

 

[Ahhzz]

Rings a bell.

I think I'd consider an article quoting the director of Oxford's Vaccination team, a "science" article. Stay on topic, report questionable posts, and direct any issues via PM, per the guidelines. Thanks!

 

[moproblems99]

I think I'd consider an article quoting the director of Oxford's Vaccination team, a "science" article. Stay on topic, report questionable posts, and direct any issues via PM, per the guidelines. Thanks!

Thanks! Noted. I was just following the spirit of our op. The one who created this thread because people were trying to keep statistics and maps about the spread.

Their intent was to disconnect all the talk about vaccines and masks so that maps and statistics could be shared and viewed without all the rest of the bs. Just trying to be a good citizen servant.

 

[dragontamer5788]

​

TT: Herd immunity a ‘mythical’ goal that will never be reached, says Oxford vaccine head​

Smallpox could spread among the vaccinated. In fact, smallpox killed 1% of the vaccinated.

We achieved herd immunity. This shit isn't new.

 

[moproblems99]

We achieved herd immunity. This shit isn't new.

Tell that to Oxford, after all they are the ones that said it.

 

[the54thvoid]

The title of this thread was changed at the OP's request some time ago.

Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19​

Moving forward, that means posts need to focus on the science (which can be a written comment based on the science), or charts, data, and maps. Basically, anything that reports on the ongoing situation surrounding the numbers and the impact of Covid.

The Lounge thread is the best place for other material, although there will be crossover (a mask discussion when a study has been conducted on their impact, for example). In fact, I'm going over there right now to talk about masks.

 

[xkm1948]

More than 50 long‑term effects of COVID‑19: a systematic review and meta‑analysis

Scientific Report from Nature Publishing Group. This is open access paper so evveryone should be able to read it just fine.

More than 50 long-term effects of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis - Scientific Reports

COVID-19 can involve persistence, sequelae, and other medical complications that last weeks to months after initial recovery. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to identify studies assessing the long-term effects of COVID-19. LitCOVID and Embase were searched to identify articles with...

www.nature.com

I took the figures from paper and clipped here in case you dont have time to read the whole thing.


Please get vaccinated. For you, for your loved ones.

 

[dragontamer5788]

The country is clearly inflected downwards: +30% growth this past week while the week before was 40% growth. Key states like Florida have dropped from ~25% growth to ~15% growth, suggesting the peak is near.

 

[Space Lynx]

You still need to maintain that boat. Salt eats away at anything inside and outside on a boat.

Who says we are going on salt water? Let's stay on the 5 great lakes!!! yeeeehaaa!!!

A yearly jab? I wouldnt discount the possibility and influenza is in the same place already... 6 months is a much harder one to swallow, seeing as you do notice it for a day or two.

But yeah. The debate is already on about 3rd booster shots. Personally Ive been saying this since mid 2020. It will happen and is, as we speak.

Opposite direction is China that still thinks they can hammer it down banning all cases and then stop dancing. We'll be dancing though, make no mistake and even China will change its stance.

China has mRNA vaccines in the works. They are just making sure there are no long term side effects since it is a new technology (well not new technology, but new in the way it is currently being used). So when scientists say, in all of vaccine history, no vaccine has ever had side effects show up 2-6 months after initial dose given. This is true for old tech, but this is new... and a new way of using that new... so you can't compare apples and oranges.

Again, disclaimer, no I am not anti-vax, I got my Pfizer jab. Just saying, I think I understand China's logic.

 

[dragontamer5788]

A yearly jab? I wouldnt discount the possibility and influenza is in the same place already... 6 months is a much harder one to swallow, seeing as you do notice it for a day or two.

Flu immunity wanes in just 6 months. But we can make due with yearly jabs nonetheless.

For COVID19... but vaccine immunity is known to be longer than 6 months. Natural immunity may wane in 6 months, but vaccine immunity is stronger and longer than natural immunity. Still an unknown for how long vaccine immunity lasts exactly, but we're already "past the flu" on this metric.

Smallpox immunity lasted for 5 years after vaccination. Hopefully we get something like smallpox's vaccine, but even then, you needed to keep up with those shots to wipe out Smallpox from our population.

-------

The "3rd shot" will happen. The debate is if its 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, or 5-year thing (or longer. The chickenpox vaccine lasts somewhere between 10 to 20 years). Beyond the vaccine immunity period... there's also the issue of variants. A booster designed vs Delta would be more effective at stopping Delta's spread. So if Delta becomes dominant (and the point of evolution: ex: Delta-plus variants like AY.3 become dominant later), then making a Delta-specific booster, even before immunity has waned, is going to be the natural policy result.

 

[Xzibit]

Smallpox could spread among the vaccinated. In fact, smallpox killed 1% of the vaccinated.

We achieved herd immunity. This shit isn't new.

Dr. Larry Brilliant who worked to eradicate smallpox

“Unless we vaccinate everyone in 200-plus countries, there will still be new variants,”

He pointed out that just 15 per cent of the world population has been inoculated and about 100 countries have vaccinated just 5 per cent of their populations.

“Mass vaccination never worked,” he says. “Not against smallpox, not against Ebola, not against polio. It is just a dream.”

Might want to give him a lecture on his work

 

[R-T-B]

Ok, riddle me this I guesss... if the smallpox vaccine did not work, what did?