Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Space Lynx]

Below 1000 hospitalizations, for the first time in many months.

View attachment 189518

I really think once everyone 40+ has a moderna/pfizer vaccine we may indeed get back to a normal mode of life. im still shocked the rest of the world doesn't ask for the right to moderna and pfizer specific kind of vaccine and guidance on how to make it. when we learned 95% efficacy on pfizer, the world should have went into pedal to the medal 5th gear.

 

[kapone32]

I really think once everyone 40+ has a moderna/pfizer vaccine we may indeed get back to a normal mode of life. im still shocked the rest of the world doesn't ask for the right to moderna and pfizer specific kind of vaccine and guidance on how to make it. when we learned 95% efficacy on pfizer, the world should have went into pedal to the medal 5th gear.

The greed co efficient

 

[dragontamer5788]

I really think once everyone 40+ has a moderna/pfizer vaccine we may indeed get back to a normal mode of life. im still shocked the rest of the world doesn't ask for the right to moderna and pfizer specific kind of vaccine and guidance on how to make it. when we learned 95% efficacy on pfizer, the world should have went into pedal to the medal 5th gear.

There are a fair number of people in my social circle who want to wait for a more traditional vaccine.

The anti-vax movement is in full swing, and hearing that this mRNA based vaccine has only been around for ~1 year (really), reduces general confidence across the board. There's a wide spectrum of opinions from fully anti-vax to pro-science trust: plenty of people are willing to take a "traditional" vaccine but not an mRNA one.

There's also benefits in allowing diversity of vaccines. mRNA may not work in some future virus, while these other traditional vaccines may work (or vice versa). We shouldn't get tunnel-vision on just one vaccine type.

------

That being said: if the Pfizer / Moderna vaccines were available to me, I'd take it immediately. In fact, I'd take any vaccine as soon as it were offered to me.

 

[Tatty_Two]

We have loads of Pfizer but Moderna not before the spring, obviously AstraZeneca is a more "Natural" vaccine and is slightly more prevalent in terms of supply currently over here and for whatever reason it seems most would prefer AstraZeneca, personally I could not care less, we are at a third of the population 1st jab vaccinated now and we have brought the program forward so all 50+ by the end of next month and the entire adult population by July latest, I should get the call in the next week or two.

Uptake has thus far been amazing, I expect that to go down a little as we move through the younger age ranges but I am willing to bet a months military pension that overall it will be a minimum of 80% uptake and more likely nearer 90%.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Pfizer-BioNTech Shot Stops Covid Spread, Israeli Study Shows

www.bloomberg.com

The vaccine, which is being rolled out in a national immunization program that began Dec. 20, was 89.4% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed infections, according to a copy of a draft publication that was posted on Twitter and confirmed by a person familiar with the work. The companies worked with Israel’s Health Ministry on the preliminary observational analysis, which wasn’t peer-reviewed. Some scientists disputed its accuracy.

There we go. So Pfizer prevents the spread by 89%+, at least by a draft prepub Israeli study. This is an expected result, but there are a ton of anti-vaxxers who were waiting for this confirmation and still arguing "vaccine isn't proven to stop the spread". So that's at least one more leg of the anti-vax argument demolished (pending review etc. etc., but... this is an expected result. It seems unlikely that they made a mistake with the calculations).

The FDA-trials in the USA only tested to see if hospitalizations and/or symptoms were prevented. This Israeli study is one of the first studies that actually tests the "spread" of the virus against recipients of the vaccine. (FDA-trials only need to prove efficacy and safety before a drug is deployed to the population... and are laser-focused on those two questions. Other questions, such as "stopping the spread" are left unanswered until other studies come by.)

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 69268 active cases --- 13073 less --- 1868 less per day
- 718977 recovered --- 53661 more --- 7666 more per day
- 16317 fatalities --- 355 more --- 51 more per day
- 804562 confirmed infected --- 7037 more --- 1005 more per day

- 8200169 tests taken --- 434000 more --- 54250 more per day but was last updated February 26th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 861922 vaccinated --- 205511 more --- last updated yesterday but that corresponds to 596812 1st doses + 265110 2nd doses
- 2165 hospitalized --- 1151 less --- 164 less per day
- 484 in ICU --- 154 less --- 22 less per day

The usual report was always published except on February 21st but it would always "refuse to load properly" except February 23rd, with missing values in either one place or another, so i was forced to use those day's situation report instead.

Hospitalized had another significant decrease and now have fewer hospitalized than when the 3rd wave began, and ICU also dropped significantly, though it' still WAY TOO HIGH. Daily fatalities dropped tremendously again but we're still with the equivalent of over 1600 daily fatalities if we had USA's population, which is STILL TOO HIGH. We also crossed 800K infected cases on February 24th.

 

[Tatty_Two]

As of the last 24 hours the UK reports 7,434 new cases, 290 fatalities and 14,808 hospitalised, expect this to skew Tuesdays figures because of less extensive reporting at weekends, I suppose a more accurate measure would be 7 day daily averages which are:

Fatalities - 334
New cases - 9,263
Hospitalisation - 14,808

England now has a 4 stage road map out of lockdown commencing on 8th March with schools returning and ending on 21st June (earliest) at which point there will be no restrictions, this is all obviously determined by the continued diminishing stats.

We should also hit one third of the Adult population of the UK having at least their 1st jab by Tuesday.

 

[HTC]

We should also hit one third of the Adult population of the UK having at least their 1st jab by Tuesday.

We're roughly @ 6% with 1st dose and @ 2.6% with 2nd dose.

 

[Space Lynx]

As of the last 24 hours the UK reports 7,434 new cases, 290 fatalities and 14,808 hospitalised, expect this to skew Tuesdays figures because of less extensive reporting at weekends, I suppose a more accurate measure would be 7 day daily averages which are:

Fatalities - 334
New cases - 9,263
Hospitalisation - 14,808

England now has a 4 stage road map out of lockdown commencing on 8th March with schools returning and ending on 21st June (earliest) at which point there will be no restrictions, this is all obviously determined by the continued diminishing stats.

We should also hit one third of the Adult population of the UK having at least their 1st jab by Tuesday.

schools last until june 21st in england? omg that would be horrible. that is one of the few things i like about america, late may through early august is summers off for kids. man those were the glory days. good times indeed.



we are getting there. i really think the world is going to be a much better place once everyone 60 and older get the vaccine... what a wild ride its been!

We're roughly @ 6% with 1st dose and @ 2.6% with 2nd dose.

 

[Tatty_Two]

schools last until june 21st in england? omg that would be horrible. that is one of the few things i like about america, late may through early august is summers off for kids. man those were the glory days. good times indeed.



we are getting there. i really think the world is going to be a much better place once everyone 60 and older get the vaccine... what a wild ride its been!

Schools back is phase 1 of 4 on 8th March, keeping things simple phase 2 starts 29th March but all that does is allows up to 6 people or 2 households to meet outside and in gardens (remembering we have been in a full lockdown since 4th Jan), 14th April sees non essential retail open as well as outdoor hospitality, gym's and hairdressers etc, this also includes holidays for a single household in England but only in self contained accommodation that have their own facilities, 17th May sees indoor hospitality and holidays broadened with 21st June (by coincidence my birthday), all restrictions lifted, I think this date is also a realistic objective to get the whole adult population at least 1st jab vaccinated.

@HTC I can only guess at this stage that a contributing factor to your vaccination status is the negative PR around the AstraZenica vaccine which is madness, if people were given a choice in the UK the majority would opt for AZ, apparently there are stockpiles of millions in Italy, France & Germany unused.

 

[Space Lynx]

Schools back is phase 1 of 4 on 8th March, keeping things simple phase 2 starts 29th March but all that does is allows up to 6 people or 2 households to meet outside and in gardens (remembering we have been in a full lockdown since 4th Jan), 14th April sees non essential retail open as well as outdoor hospitality, gym's and hairdressers etc, this also includes holidays for a single household in England but only in self contained accommodation that have their own facilities, 17th May sees indoor hospitality and holidays broadened with 21st June (by coincidence my birthday), all restrictions lifted, I think this date is also a realistic objective to get the whole adult population at least 1st jab vaccinated.

@HTC I can only guess at this stage that a contributing factor to your vaccination status is the negative PR around the AstraZenica vaccine which is madness, if people were given a choice in the UK the majority would opt for AZ, apparently there are stockpiles of millions in Italy, France & Germany unused.

that full lockdown would be a heck of a lot more effective if Boris would just wise up and realize international travel is the main issue... New Zealand stopped international flights I believe for the longest time, it was the only way to truly stop its spread:

posted 2 hours ago:

Up to six cases of Manaus variant of coronavirus detected in UK

Up to six cases of a highly transmissible variant of coronavirus first identified in the Brazilian city of Manaus have been detected in Britain for the first time, English health officials said on Sunday.

www.reuters.com

and if you read the article one of those people had contact with several other people, and visited several places while most likely contagious... so yeah... full lockdown... i don't know what that means exactly when stuff like this can happen so easily...

 

[HTC]

that full lockdown would be a heck of a lot more effective if Boris would just wise up and realize international travel is the main issue... New Zealand stopped international flights I believe for the longest time, it was the only way to truly stop its spread:

posted 2 hours ago:

Up to six cases of Manaus variant of coronavirus detected in UK

Up to six cases of a highly transmissible variant of coronavirus first identified in the Brazilian city of Manaus have been detected in Britain for the first time, English health officials said on Sunday.

www.reuters.com

and if you read the article one of those people had contact with several other people, and visited several places while most likely contagious... so yeah... full lockdown... i don't know what that means exactly when stuff like this can happen so easily...

And that's why 14 day quarantines after flights are necessary: to make sure any potential infected doesn't have the chance to spread the virus to the locals.

@HTC I can only guess at this stage that a contributing factor to your vaccination status is the negative PR around the AstraZenica vaccine which is madness, if people were given a choice in the UK the majority would opt for AZ, apparently there are stockpiles of millions in Italy, France & Germany unused.

Really????

 

[Space Lynx]

And that's why 14 day quarantines after flights are necessary: to make sure any potential infected doesn't have the chance to spread the virus to the locals.



Really????

I thought the UK was using AZ vaccine? in full force? and yes there are millions being unused as most of those countries say AZ is unsafe on old people only, so they ended up not using the deliveries they got for some reason, at least that is what I read.

but if 14 day quarantines are required than how was this person who was contagious able to spread this new Brazil variant as recently as last week of this UK variant? something isn't working.

AstraZeneca vaccine may not go to older people, EU medicines chief suggests

European Medicines Agency approval could stipulate age range, says Emer Cooke

www.theguardian.com

 

[the54thvoid]

I thought the UK was using AZ vaccine? in full force? and yes there are millions being unused as most of those countries say AZ is unsafe on old people only, so they ended up not using the deliveries they got for some reason, at least that is what I read.

but if 14 day quarantines are required than how was this person who was contagious able to spread this new Brazil variant as recently as last week of this UK variant? something isn't working.

AstraZeneca vaccine may not go to older people, EU medicines chief suggests

European Medicines Agency approval could stipulate age range, says Emer Cooke

www.theguardian.com

We're using a mix of Pfizer and AZ. My mum got Pfizer.

 

[Space Lynx]

We're using a mix of Pfizer and AZ. My mum got Pfizer.

looks like pfizer is the one i want according to latest UK study. since i have already had covid.

Single Pfizer vaccine shot provides strong protection for those who've had Covid-19, UK studies suggest | CNN

Just one dose of Pfizer/BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine can induce a strong enough immune response in people who have already had Covid-19 that it could protect from future disease, according to two new papers published in the journal The Lancet on Thursday.

www.cnn.com

One of those new papers, led by researchers at the University College London and Public Health England, included data on 51 health care workers in London. Among those workers, 24 previously had Covid-19. All of the health care workers received a first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and then were tested for antibodies 19 to 29 days later.
The researchers found that in those who had a previous natural infection, vaccination increased their antibody levels more than 140-fold. "This increase appears to be at least one order of magnitude greater than reported after a conventional prime-boost vaccine strategy in previously uninfected individuals," the researchers wrote in their paper.

 

[claes]

As someone who keeps up with scientific journals on this issue, this was a huge surprise

Finland Had a Patent-Free COVID-19 Vaccine Nine Months Ago — But Still Went With Big Pharma

A team of leading Finnish researchers had a patent-free COVID-19 vaccine ready last May, which could have allowed countries all over the world to inoculate their populations without paying top dollar. Yet rather than help the initiative, Finland's government sided with Big Pharma — showing how a...

jacobinmag.com

The Finnish vaccine uses an adenovirus to carry the genetic instructions for synthesizing the spike protein. One of its practical advantages is that, unlike with RNA technology based on lipid nanoparticles, it can be stored in a regular fridge, potentially even at room temperature. This makes for easier and cheaper delivery logistics with no requirement for ultra-cold storage. Beyond its stability and the convenience of nasal administration, the vaccine may have other superior qualities to many currently on the market, Saksela’s team believes. “In order to fully stop the virus from spreading and to get rid of new mutations, we need to induce sterilizing immunity,” meaning that the virus no longer replicates within the body of an otherwise healthy person. Preliminary animal and patient trials seem to confirm that the nasal spray accomplishes this. “With about half the people who are exposed, even if they’re symptomless, you find that the virus is still present in the upper respiratory system. So even if it’s on the way out, it still gets to run amok through the front door, making your immune system into a training partner of sorts.”

 

[the54thvoid]

As someone who keeps up with scientific journals on this issue, this was a huge surprise

Finland Had a Patent-Free COVID-19 Vaccine Nine Months Ago — But Still Went With Big Pharma

A team of leading Finnish researchers had a patent-free COVID-19 vaccine ready last May, which could have allowed countries all over the world to inoculate their populations without paying top dollar. Yet rather than help the initiative, Finland's government sided with Big Pharma — showing how a...

jacobinmag.com

It's all about logistics. It's one thing to develop a theoretical adenoviral vaccine (Astrazenica is one) but to mass produce it by the millions requires massive and specialised facilities. That's, unfortunately, where big pharma comes in. It's exactly why Oxford scientists worked with Astra Zenica. You have scientists working to create a mass production vector for immunisation. I won't defend big pharma (after all, they gave Japan a term for depression and then sold them drugs) but if a company possesses the capacity to produce a 'commodity' most governments will take that path for its ease of use, as well as an 'on tap' source of what is required.

FWIW, the AZ vaccine was developed years ago as a carrier model for any novel viral vaccine.

 

[Space Lynx]

It's all about logistics.

yep exactly. I was about to say same thing, I love FInland, visited my friends there for 3 months several years ago. but it has its ups and downs, for example this... a free patent vaccine is great but yet i still see no company in Finland rising up manufacturing it...

 

[Tatty_Two]

Brazil is on the red list meaning since we went into lockdown all people from Brazil (and Portugal included because of their historic links with Brazil) were banned from entry, only UK citizens were allowed in from those countries but quarantine for them took a bit longer, I am guessing it has been around for a while, most have before they are detected.

Also yes AZ stockpiled in the countries I mentioned, however and here is the thing, they did have over 65's in the phase 3 human trials, just not as many proportionately as some of the others, however the EU know that the UK has vaccinated 1.8 million over 65's with the AZ vaccine and early tests are showing it actually produces the strongest immune reaction from a single shot for those age ranges thus far, that's not to say after 2 shots it will, had I have been given a choice I would have gone AZ and I am 60, I always like to buy British

 

[claes]

It's all about logistics. It's one thing to develop a theoretical adenoviral vaccine (Astrazenica is one) but to mass produce it by the millions requires massive and specialised facilities. That's, unfortunately, where big pharma comes in. It's exactly why Oxford scientists worked with Astra Zenica. You have scientists working to create a mass production vector for immunisation. I won't defend big pharma (after all, they gave Japan a term for depression and then sold them drugs) but if a company possesses the capacity to produce a 'commodity' most governments will take that path for its ease of use, as well as an 'on tap' source of what is required.

FWIW, the AZ vaccine was developed years ago as a carrier model for any novel viral vaccine.

Hm? Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but I believe the vaccine is developed and they just couldn’t secure funding for trials? According to the article Finland chose not to invest the $50M needed for the trials because they didn’t want to bare the liability costs.

From the article:

Saksela’s team has had a patent-free COVID-19 vaccine ready since May 2020, which they dubbed “the Linux of vaccines” in a nod to the famous open-source operating system that also originated from Finland. The work is based on publicly available research data and predicated on the principle of sharing all new findings in peer-reviewed journals.

...

“It’s a finished product, in the sense that the formulation will no longer change in any way with further testing,” Saksela says. “With what we have, we could inoculate the whole population of Finland tomorrow.”

 

[Tatty_Two]

It would appear that the Brazilian variant was first detected in January, which means that it likely entered the country November or December, which again means it is quite likely it is already in multiple countries, of the 3 people tested with this new variant, 2 of them had tests the day before they travelled that were negative, both went into quarantine for 14 days on arrival, came out of quarantine and then afterwards started to get symptoms and were tested again, the 3rd person has not yet been found because they did not complete all the contact details required in order to get a test, but they still got the test!

 

[HTC]

It would appear that the Brazilian variant was first detected in January, which means that it likely entered the country November or December, which again means it is quite likely it is already in multiple countries, of the 3 people tested with this new variant, 2 of them had tests the day before they travelled that were negative, both went into quarantine for 14 days on arrival, came out of quarantine and then afterwards started to get symptoms and were tested again, the 3rd person has not yet been found because they did not complete all the contact details required in order to get a test, but they still got the test!

That doesn't bode well

 

[dragontamer5788]

US has been fortunate to be far away from the UK variant, but as the UK variant begins to spread here, it seems like our COVID19 cases are back on the rise.

My hope is that we can get substantially vaccinated before the UK variant becomes common around here. We got lucky with a geography advantage (the random mutation being born in the UK rather than here in the US). But time is clearly beginning to run out.

This is Google / New York Times data. Notice that daily COVID# has dropped down since the "Christmas Wave", but we're still above the "Summer Wave" (aka: Wave 2). Despite a substantial ~14% of our population either partially or fully vaccinated, we're no where close to proper herd immunity to clamp down on the virus quite yet.

I'm still optimistic. A 3rd vaccine (J&J) that's cheaper / easier to distribute just arrived, as well as substantial increases to Pfizer / Moderna's supply of vaccines. There are a bunch of smaller issues: like low-dead space syringes which are now being produced in mass numbers (more efficient needles: getting 6-doses per Pfizer vial instead of 5-doses), which serve as an indirect means of gaining more vaccination doses.

The vaccine game is racing against the clock. But there's a good chance that we'll have a substantial portion of our population vaccinated before the next wave: cutting deaths and hospitalizations down. (Even if you do get sick with the vaccine, your chances of severe illness are cut down). We may not have herd immunity for wave#4, but maybe we can prevent hospitals from overflowing again.

---------

The USA's Wave#4 is probably going to be UK-variant based. Which is largely protected by the same vaccines (unlike Brazil or South African variants).

 

[Tatty_Two]

Well it took pretty much a full lockdown and we are in to week 8 of that lockdown to get the UK variant under control and it still accounts for 90+% of all new infections but in that 8 weeks infection rates have been reduced by over 90% over what they were at the peak in January. If it takes hold in the US I fear for those states that may have fewer restrictions in place because these new ones are a whole different ball game and we know now there are some strong indications that those who would have a degree of natural immunity from previous infections are likely to have little defence against these newer strains.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Well it took pretty much a full lockdown and we are in to week 8 of that lockdown to get the UK variant under control and it still accounts for 90+% of all new infections but in that 8 weeks infection rates have been reduced by over 90% over what they were at the peak in January. If it takes hold in the US I fear for those states that may have fewer restrictions in place because these new ones are a whole different ball game and we know now there are some strong indications that those who would have a degree of natural immunity from previous infections are likely to have little defence against these newer strains.

Natural immunity fails to help vs P1 and B.1.135 (Aka: Brazil / South African). But UK (B.1.1.7) seems to be covered by natural immunity of the original COVID19. The vaccines are also a lot more effective.

The US seems unlikely to lockdown again frankly, given our political situation. Biden is pushing for schools to open (for example). I think its all in on vaccine hopes at this point. Hopefully it works out. Trump unexpectedly announced support of the vaccine this past week, so it looks like we have a degree of bipartisan agreement here. There's still a strong anti-vax undercurrent (which hasn't affected us yet: there isn't enough vaccine available for the anti-vax politics to affect us yet). Hopefully we can turn around the anti-vax opinion and keep this vaccination effort strong.