Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Space Lynx]

We MUST find ways to produce the vaccines A LOT FASTER so that we can vaccinate enough people to achieve herd immunity BEFORE that even has A CHANCE to happen.

yep I agree, this is why I mentioned Moderna and Pfizer should be working together to create a new mega facility and increase supply chain safely, before something REALLY BAD does happen. Short term greed blinds all of us though, so eh. I doubt it will happen, we will get a bad variant and instead of being able to churn out 200 million shots overnight, we will have lockdowns for another month, until the economy collapse and the dollar loses its value even more.

Hopefully we get lucky and the next mutations are weaker for some reason, we might get lucky, but I doubt it. Nature is nature... but I suspect this came from a lab personally, an accident to be sure... but something about it all seems off to me, the way it behaves.

 

[LFaWolf]

I am not worried about the the manufacturing parts. Manufacturing can always be scaled up. But the problem is the people. Right now there are still so many in the US that refused to get vaccinated, and frankly, we are wasting vaccines here that can be better used by sending to other countries, and thus causing this prolong suffering around the world, and allowing the virus to mutate. However, I believe the government officials are worried about not having enough vaccines at home that we can't send them oversea yet.

 

[Space Lynx]

I believe the government officials are worried about not having enough vaccines at home that we can't send them oversea yet.

yeah this is government being dumb basically. there is no reason you can't scale back the deliveries for USA places, but still make the deliveries in USA, and divert majority of vaccines abroad.

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until yesterday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published Saturday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 50054 active cases --- 4343 less --- 592 less per day
- 903514 recovered --- 21944 more --- 3135 more per day
- 173692 fatalities --- 77 more --- 11 more per day
- 970937 confirmed infected --- 17878 more --- 2554 more per day

- 15214294 tests taken --- 445984 more --- 63712 more per day but was last updated July 29th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 1656793 vaccinated --- 653250 more --- last updated last today but that corresponds to 6728793 1st doses + 4927955 2nd doses
- 923 hospitalized ---44 more --- 6 more per day
- 200 in ICU --- 7 more --- 1 more per day

Week fatalities decreased VS last week but are still above 10 daily fatalities. The R number finally decreased to below 1.0, with it now being 0.98 on average. Roughly 66.8% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 48.7% are fully vaccinated.

The new daily cases FINALLY dropped significantly: let's hope they continue to drop further.

 

[Space Lynx]

it's amazing to me this all could have ended by end of July 2020 if all nation states simply agreed no more airplanes for anything, no more ships or boats, full lockdown of entire world for 30 days. covid = gone

but humans are too greedy or stupid to ever think in these terms. lol sad

Delta is on fire where I live, lots of people getting Delta in my state. businesses with no help today signs, etc. one of students told me she had to close down her business cause two employees tested positive yesterday.

Covid is not done with us yet. We think it is done, we feel a bit of reprieve, but I would bet money Covid future mutations, damage to the economy, etc etc all together it's going to be the end of us. The days of prosperity I mean, not the end of us literally, but I mean the days of prosperity for the mass (utilitarian pov) the wealthy will still do just fine.

 

[dragontamer5788]

The new daily cases FINALLY dropped significantly: let's hope they continue to drop further.

COVID19 seems to have a "strong" trend. When its going up, it feels unstoppable. But when its going down, we are all super cautious about it and don't want to "jinx" our good fortunes.

I think its a time to be optimistic however. A downward trend probably will stay downward unless major changes take place (ex: a new mutation comes out). Since you're in a downtrend, I think its time to be optimistic.

 

[Space Lynx]

COVID19 seems to have a "strong" trend. When its going up, it feels unstoppable. But when its going down, we are all super cautious about it and don't want to "jinx" our good fortunes.

I think its a time to be optimistic however. A downward trend probably will stay downward unless major changes take place (ex: a new mutation comes out). Since you're in a downtrend, I think its time to be optimistic.

Most COVID deaths in England now are in the vaccinated – here’s why that shouldn’t alarm you

The latest UK data shows that nearly two-thirds of people who died of COVID between February 1 and June 21 had been vaccinated.

theconversation.com

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness.

I just read this article, and that quote is at the bottom of the article... I don't get what I just read, this sentence sounds like failed logic.

 

[Tatty_Two]

it's amazing to me this all could have ended by end of July 2020 if all nation states simply agreed no more airplanes for anything, no more ships or boats, full lockdown of entire world for 30 days. covid = gone

but humans are too greedy or stupid to ever think in these terms. lol sad

Delta is on fire where I live, lots of people getting Delta in my state. businesses with no help today signs, etc. one of students told me she had to close down her business cause two employees tested positive yesterday.

Covid is not done with us yet. We think it is done, we feel a bit of reprieve, but I would bet money Covid future mutations, damage to the economy, etc etc all together it's going to be the end of us. The days of prosperity I mean, not the end of us literally, but I mean the days of prosperity for the mass (utilitarian pov) the wealthy will still do just fine.

It took a little over 2 years for the Spanish Flu (H1N1) to run it's course without a vaccine, a third of the planet's population got infected, it came in 4 waves and mankind was saved (kind of in the worst extreme) by a milder variant of the virus, international travel was a small fraction of what it is now and estimated death toll was anywhere in the realms of 50 - 75 million, to think that a global 30 day lockdown would have solved this current baby without a vaccine being available in July 2020 is just a tad optimistic

 

[dragontamer5788]

I just read this article, and that quote is at the bottom of the article... I don't get what I just read, this sentence sounds like failed logic.

Simpson's paradox.

I projected that people will start falling for Simpson's paradox on this issue some time ago. But the tl;dr is that population dynamics and population statistics are very complicated, and trying to get things down to a single number leads to apparent paradoxes.

Simpson's paradox is the black-line. We can see that age 55 people have less success in Basketball than Age 10 people. We can also see that height is an advantage in basketball.

However: when we "combine" the populations, suddenly the black-line forms. It looks like additional height gives a disadvantage. That's not the case at all! Height is clearly an advantage in basketball (height within a young person is an advantage vs height against another young person... and height with an old-person is an advantage against height against another old person). But old people tend to be much taller than young people, and the age difference is a bigger factor.

So, given the information above, would you say taller people are worse at basketball? Given this made up study consisting of 10-year olds and 55-year-olds, you might come to that conclusion (aka, the black line). You need to collate the data more carefully (the red and blue lines) to find the truth.

 

[HTC]

COVID19 seems to have a "strong" trend. When its going up, it feels unstoppable. But when its going down, we are all super cautious about it and don't want to "jinx" our good fortunes.

I think its a time to be optimistic however. A downward trend probably will stay downward unless major changes take place (ex: a new mutation comes out). Since you're in a downtrend, I think its time to be optimistic.

Now that our R number is FINALLY below 1, i expect the number of daily cases to drop even more substantially.

Because i have been posting 7 day numbers and their daily averages, we can definitely get a sense of the trend.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Now that our R number is FINALLY below 1, i expect the number of daily cases to drop even more substantially.

Because i have been posting 7 day numbers and their daily averages, we can definitely get a sense of the trend.

I think we are maybe 4 weeks ahead of most in terms of a Delta infection rate of 99% of all cases, so what you are seeing is really good in terms of slowing it down, we have reduced cases by around 60% but that downward trend only started 2 or 3 weeks ago, it shows really for us just how much transmission was happening in schools, kids have now been off school for 2 or 3 weeks, I have been pleasantly surprised by the turnaround considering that in England there are no restrictions on anything since mid July apart from most international travel.

 

[Space Lynx]

I think we are maybe 4 weeks ahead of most in terms of a Delta infection rate of 99% of all cases, so what you are seeing is really good in terms of slowing it down, we have reduced cases by around 60% but that downward trend only started 2 or 3 weeks ago, it shows really for us just how much transmission was happening in schools, kids have now been off school for 2 or 3 weeks, I have been pleasantly surprised by the turnaround considering that in England there are no restrictions on anything since mid July apart from most international travel.

I mean to be fair, like 80% of people have had at least one jab in UK right? Combine that with the idiots who refuse the jab also automatically refuse the mask (comes with the territory), which means that 20% most likely has had it by now... since they are the type to do pub, etc...

So logically it makes sense to conclude UK has possibly reached a herd immunity level.

 

[Tatty_Two]

I mean to be fair, like 80% of people have had at least one jab in UK right? Combine that with the idiots who refuse the jab also automatically refuse the mask (comes with the territory), which means that 20% most likely has had it by now... since they are the type to do pub, etc...

So logically it makes sense to conclude UK has possibly reached a herd immunity level.

I think as of yesterday we are around 88% of total UK adult population that have had their first dose and 73% have had both.

 

[HTC]

I think as of yesterday we are around 88% of total UK adult population that have had their first dose and 73% have had both.

This is what concerns me: now that it's evident that Delta infects younger people too, how much of total people percentage does UK have with full vaccination?

With the original COVID, herd immunity was supposed to be achieved with around 70% of the population but, with this new Delta variant, it's my understanding that a higher percentage is required: can that percentage be achieved solely vaccinating adult people? This is why i think it's of the utmost importance we ALSO vaccinate younger people: young enough that we can reach herd immunity, be that @ age 16+, 14+ or younger, if need be.

 

[dragontamer5788]

[It] shows really for us just how much transmission was happening in schools, kids have now been off school for 2 or 3 weeks

I hope you are wrong for USA's sake. Our schools are about to open in a month and there's no plan to get those kids vaccinated before October.

 

[dragontamer5788]

This is what concerns me: now that it's evident that Delta infects younger people too, how much of total people percentage does UK have with full vaccination?

With the original COVID, herd immunity was supposed to be achieved with around 70% of the population but, with this new Delta variant, it's my understanding that a higher percentage is required: can that percentage be achieved solely vaccinating adult people? This is why i think it's of the utmost importance we ALSO vaccinate younger people: young enough that we can reach herd immunity, be that @ age 16+, 14+ or younger, if need be.

The adult only plan is about safety and minimizing hospitalizations / deaths. Any reasonable plan for herd immunity will require the kids to also get vaccinated.

The practical issue is: what is the proper safe dose for a 20kg (50lb) child?

The tests for a 85kg (180lb) adult are insufficient for demonstrating safety or efficacy. We have to start the tests all over from scratch if we want to prove safety.

 

[Tatty_Two]

I hope you are wrong for USA's sake. Our schools are about to open in a month and there's no plan to get those kids vaccinated before October.

Quoting your point but answering a couple of questions raised, yours to start with ............................... April - June, when the delta variant really took over, if my memory serves me correctly, 95% of all new cases came from the under 30's, of which 80% of them came from the under 18's (although in schools it was the 11+ group that had by far the most infections, younger school children only accounted for single digit %.

With regards to HTC's question about double jab rate if you include under 18's (bearing in mind the Pfizer jab is only approved here for 12+ currently, that 73% currently would probably go down to 60 - 65% if you included the 12+ year olds.

Currently, as far as I am aware, the UK as of now only intends to offer vaccinations to 12+ year olds with significant underlying conditions, at a vague guess, looking at where the UK is currently and including children down to 11 year olds I would guess that the best we could achieve is maybe 75% of the population (possibly a little more), the UK has approx 10 million children in school so prob around 6 million of those would be 11+ in what we call Secondary Schools, as I mentioned, infection rates in what we call Primary schools (4-10 year olds) has been very low as far as I am aware.

 

[HTC]

Quoting your point but answering a couple of questions raised, yours to start with ............................... April - June, when the delta variant really took over, if my memory serves me correctly, 95% of all new cases came from the under 30's, of which 80% of them came from the under 18's (although in schools it was the 11+ group that had by far the most infections, younger school children only accounted for single digit %.

With regards to HTC's question about double jab rate if you include under 18's (bearing in mind the Pfizer jab is only approved here for 12+ currently, that 73% currently would probably go down to 60 - 65% if you included the 12+ year olds.

Currently, as far as I am aware, the UK as of now only intends to offer vaccinations to 12+ year olds with significant underlying conditions, at a vague guess, looking at where the UK is currently and including children down to 11 year olds I would guess that the best we could achieve is maybe 75% of the population (possibly a little more), the UK has approx 10 million children in school so prob around 6 million of those would be 11+ in what we call Secondary Schools, as I mentioned, infection rates in what we call Primary schools (4-10 year olds) has been very low as far as I am aware.

Same thing here in Portugal, as far as i'm aware: they intend to 100% vaccinate aged 12 to 15 that have other medical issues but require parent + medical consent to vaccinate the rest of those aged 12 to 15.

The adult only plan is about safety and minimizing hospitalizations / deaths. Any reasonable plan for herd immunity will require the kids to also get vaccinated.

The practical issue is: what is the proper safe dose for a 20kg (50lb) child?

The tests for a 85kg (180lb) adult are insufficient for demonstrating safety or efficacy. We have to start the tests all over from scratch if we want to prove safety.

Exactly.

Which is why i was talking about aged 12+ only and not going younger than that. Still, that MAY eventually be required so we'll need to seriously consider that right now: we HOPE it won't be needed but we must prepare non the less on that chance that it MAY be required.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Quoting your point but answering a couple of questions raised, yours to start with ............................... April - June, when the delta variant really took over, if my memory serves me correctly, 95% of all new cases came from the under 30's, of which 80% of them came from the under 18's (although in schools it was the 11+ group that had by far the most infections, younger school children only accounted for single digit %.

Our schools are September to June, with a week break in April and December. The Delta variant entered our country sometime in March. But it didn't really ramp up until July, well into summer-break.

Note: this graph is of my current state. Our state has a bigger initial surge (which probably caused more people to take COVID19 seriously), and therefore a weaker winter surge / alpha surge than other states. Otherwise, the big "bumps" line up with the rest of the country.

The March / April period was Alpha. True, Delta was in our country, but it didn't really take over until now. The entirety of March/April was Alpha for sure.

This new surge we're seeing is Delta for certain (well over 90% of the cases today are Delta). So we're a few weeks "behind" you guys across the pond. That being said: we can see the July / August 2020 surge from last year (a very minor bump). Our behavior is to go to the beach / vacation properties around this time. Case in point: our local resort town is "Ocean City", population 7,000. In the summer months during vacation, it becomes the second most populated city in the state (!!!!).

Ocean City, Maryland - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ocean City, officially the Town of Ocean City, is an Atlantic resort town in Worcester County, Maryland, United States. Ocean City is a major beach resort area along the East Coast of the United States. The population was 7,102 at the 2010 U.S. census, although during summer weekends the city hosts between 320,000 and 345,000 vacationers, and up to 8 million visitors annually.[4] During the summer, Ocean City becomes the second most populated municipality in Maryland, after Baltimore.

July is a good time for the beach. August is better (warmer ocean. The July ocean is still very cold), but August has random hurricanes. So July is more reliable, and is the start of our travels to Ocean City. With so many vacationers entering one location like that, it will inevitably spread COVID19.

----------

Florida in particular is a large peninsula with perhaps the most number of beaches in the country. Their surge is almost certainly because of this vacationing behavior of ours (well... that and their lack of vaccination). I know of plenty of family friends who own beach-houses in Florida and travel there yearly. Others own timeshares, while many others own yearly passes to Disney World despite not owning any property.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1421176288270864388

 

[Space Lynx]

Pfizer Raises Price of Covid-19 Vaccine by 25% in Europe: Report

Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine will be the highest revenue drug in history by the end of 2021.

gizmodo.com

You want some Covid stats?

Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine will be the highest revenue drug in history by the end of 2021.

$$$$$$$$ To the moon!!!! $$$$$$$$$

 

[dragontamer5788]

Pfizer Raises Price of Covid-19 Vaccine by 25% in Europe: Report

Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine will be the highest revenue drug in history by the end of 2021.

gizmodo.com

You want some Covid stats?

Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine will be the highest revenue drug in history by the end of 2021.

$$$$$$$$ To the moon!!!! $$$$$$$$$

Pfizer was an already established company though. It was expected that they might be one of the top contenders for the vaccine.

Moderna on the other hand, was a startup in 2016 (a $Billion startup, but a startup nonetheless). The Moderna vaccine is the first drug they ever made for the public. As such, their stock is more closely "to the moon" than Pfizer's.

Moderna is the stock I've been kicking myself over. They were only ~$80 when it was announced that they'd be the 2nd vaccine. They were only $170 when they started distributing the vaccine in large numbers (making lots of money). In hindsight, it seems like one of the easiest stock plays I let escape my grasp.

 

[Space Lynx]

Pfizer was an already established company though. It was expected that they might be one of the top contenders for the vaccine.

Moderna on the other hand, was a startup in 2016 (a $Billion startup, but a startup nonetheless). The Moderna vaccine is the first drug they ever made for the public. As such, their stock is more closely "to the moon" than Pfizer's.

View attachment 211109

Moderna is the stock I've been kicking myself over. They were only ~$80 when it was announced that they'd be the 2nd vaccine. They were only $170 when they started distributing the vaccine in large numbers (making lots of money). In hindsight, it seems like one of the easiest stock plays I let escape my grasp.

ya that article also states Modern raises their price by 10% as well recently for each vaccine.

VC Firm Of Moderna Chairman Sold $1.4 Billion Of Stock In Two Months

Flagship Pioneering, a VC fund run and majority owned by Moderna chairman and cofounder Noubar Afeyan, sold the shares in late February and late March.

www.forbes.com

must be nice being a billionaire off a pandemic. lol

 

[the54thvoid]

^^ LQ just to keep the virus stats etc in front. The financial side is better for the other Covid (lounge) thread.

It's why we have two.

 

[HTC]

This is Portugal's current vaccination, as of August 1st:

On the left is 1 dose only and on the right is fully vaccinated. Bottom part states doses Portugal has received (left) and doses Portugal has administered (right).

We had to slow down our rate of vaccinations due to lack of vaccines: there's a need to keep in stock enough vaccines for those waiting for their 2nd dose, or we would use all of the vaccines as they became available.

We have a great percentage of those aged 65+ fully vaccinated, but aged 50 to 64 isn't quite there just yet. Obviously, and because they started to get vaccinated @ a later date, those aged under 50 still have a long way to go.

Portugal is going to interrupt scheduled vaccination for 30+ this weekend and push for vaccinating ALL of aged 16 to 17 in preparation for school, and resume vaccinating 30+ after that.

Portugal has a huge percentage of adults vaccinated:

- aged 18 to 24 --- 157703 / 0.2 = 788515 people
- aged 25 to 49 --- 2523805 / 0.76 = 3320796 people
- aged 50 to 64 --- 2047847 / 0.94 = 2178561 people
- aged 65 to 79 --- 1642755 / 0.99 = 1659348 people
- aged 80+ --- 682088 / 0.99 = 688978

- aged 18+ in Portugal --- 788515 + 3320796 + 2178561 + 1659348 + 688798 = 8636198

- 1 vaccine dose only --- 7059701 * 100 / 8636198 = 81.75%
- fully vaccinated --- (5851054 - 2880) * 100 / 8636198 = 67.72%

My math is right ... right?

 

[Deleted member 24505]

Just seen a proper dumbass politician from florida. Not vaccinated because i'm 30 yrs old and fit and healthy so don't need it. Jesus no wonder Florida is in the grip of this covid pandemic. Well all i can say is go go virus, cull all the thick *****, at least what's left are the intelligent ones.

Listen, if you are in America, FFS wear a mask and get vaccinated.