Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[lexluthermiester]

South Korea dealt with the crisis effectively without mass quarantines in any major city,

Exactly.

Your type of ignorance and lack of understanding is what caused the exponential spread in the first place.

LOL! @phanbuey took the words right out of my mouth.

Are the elderly and at risk just casualties of war?

They are at risk anyway. Cancer, Mrsa, Flu, car wreck... Any of those things are for more likely to kill them than COVID19. It's call life. Live it, or crawl under a rock and stay there.

Fact, reason, knowledge and logic are what we need to work this problem. Panic, over-reactions and irrational feelings will only make things worse, as has and is being demonstrated by the events of late.

Fact 1: There are far more recovered people than dead people.
Conclusion: The human immune system, whether assisted or not, is overwhelmingly winning this battle.

Fact 2: No shut downs, anywhere in the world, have proven effective in preventing or slowing the spread of this virus.
Conclusion: Isolation and shutdowns are a too-little-too-late approach to a problem that has already spread far and wide.

Fact 3: Because the human immune system is successful fighting this virus in combination with it spreading to far to be effectively stopped by national isolation's, it is logical to conclude that such efforts are a complete waste of time.
Conclusion: We need to face reality head on and accept it for what it is.

We face this virus on our own terms instead of cowering in our homes and hiding behind windows and doors. We will survive and prevail. Some of us will die, but that will not be any different than any other day. Me and mine refuse to cower and hide.

 

[Vario]

SK did mass testing. To repeat the results of SK without mass quarantines, the US needs to do mass testing.
Edit:
Here is a video of an Italian ER

 

[lexluthermiester]

SK did mass testing. To repeat the results of SK without mass quarantines, the US needs to do mass testing.

That might have worked 6 weeks ago. It's too late for that. At this time, the only left to do is wait. The virus will run it's course regardless of what we do.

 

[Vario]

That might have worked 6 weeks ago. It's too late for that. At this time, the only left to do is wait. The virus will run it's course regardless of what we do.

The next phase is mass production of medical equipment, field hospitals, beds. The sheer quantity of sick people will overwhelm existing hospitals.

 

[lexluthermiester]

The next phase is mass production of medical equipment, field hospitals, beds. The sheer quantity of sick people will overwhelm existing hospitals.

People without serious problems are being sent home, which is where they need to be. But you are not wrong, bolstering of medical supplies is part of the bigger plan.

 

[EarthDog]

Fact, reason, knowledge and logic are what we need to work this problem. Panic, over-reactions and irrational feelings will only make things worse, as has and is being demonstrated by the events of late.

Explain this more... what is worse, the hoarding and such?

Fact 1: There are far more recovered people than dead people.
Conclusion: The human immune system, whether assisted or not, is overwhelmingly winning this battle.

It is for now...but that is also in part to the hospital system being able to handle many of the severe cases. But what happens when, in a week or two, the hospitals, nationwide start getting overrun? Sure, the human immune system still 'wins' as it did with all other pandemics anyway...is there one over 50% mortality rate? The Flu of 1918-1920 was from 10-20%...that is the highest I recall. With that in mind, can't say I the conclusion is worth anything.

Fact 2: No shut downs, anywhere in the world, have proven effective in preventing or slowing the spread of this virus.
Conclusion: Isolation and shutdowns are a too-little-too-late approach to a problem that has already spread far and wide.

Can you source this fact, please? While isolations and shutdowns will clearly hurt the economy, we've seen this help before. Look at the tale of the same Flu pandemic in 1918-1920... What were the cities, Philly and St. Louis... one shutdown, the other, Philly, went on with life and a huge parade, etc. This isolation/social distancing is what 'flattens the curve'... this works at most any point before peak, which we are week aware from according to the experts.

A Pandemic And A Parade: What 1918 tells us about flattening the curve

The virus that became known as Spanish Flu first appeared in early 1918. Rampant among military bases in both the U.S. and Europe, it spread rapidly as World War I brought opposing armies together in dire conditions.

www.thedenverchannel.com

This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works

St. Louis' response to the Spanish flu is informing the battle against the novel coronavirus.

qz.com

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 1 - Section 11

Principles of Epidemiology in Public Health Practice, Third Edition An Introduction to Applied Epidemiology and Biostatistics Lesson 1 Section 11

www.cdc.gov

Fact 3: Because the human immune system is successful fighting this virus in combination with it spreading to far to be effectively stopped by national isolation's, it is logical to conclude that such efforts are a complete waste of time.
Conclusion: We need to face reality head on and accept it for what it is.

See above... number 2 and 3 seem to bunk that line of thinking.

We face this virus on our own terms instead of cowering in our homes and hiding behind windows and doors. We will survive and prevail. Some of us will die, but that will not be any different than any other day. Me and mine refuse to cower and hide.

This is a very selfish way to look at things...don't mind anyone else while you potentially carry and spread to the unsuspecting.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

*stares at New York*

 

[lexluthermiester]

It is for now...

And that tread has only continued, it is not getting worse.

With that in mind, can't say I the conclusion is worth anything.

The raw numbers say otherwise and that is where I'm drawing my conclusion from.

Can you source this fact, please?

I'm not going to debate that point as I would end up typing out a small novel. I reached that conclusion as a fact based on the spread of the virus currently and the tread it's taking. You may disagree, but the numbers point strongly to that conclusion.

This is a very selfish way to look at things...don't mind anyone else while you potentially carry and spread to the unsuspecting.

Opinion. How is this different from anything else that we regularly face, such as the flu? Is it selfish then? The flu is still deadly, so how can it be selfish now with COVID19 and not at any other time? People are responsible for themselves in the context that they are supposed to know when they are "at risk" for viral infections. Anyone who is already will be taking steps to prevent or minimize exposure on a personal level. That is their responsibility. When we get the flu, we get the flu. If it's not holding us down we go on with life. If it is we generally self isolate. This new virus is showing that it is no different in practical effect.

 

[Vario]

How is this different from anything else that we regularly face, such as the flu? Is it selfish then? The flu is still deadly, so how can it be selfish now with COVID19 and not at any other time? People are responsible for themselves in the context that they are supposed to know when they are "at risk" for viral infections. Anyone who is already will be taking steps to prevent or minimize exposure on a personal level. That is their responsibility. When we get the flu, we get the flu. If it's not holding us down we go on with life. If it is we generally self isolate. This new virus is showing that it is no different in practical effect.

~10 to 30 times more deadly than seasonal flu.
~2 times as infectious

For my source, see page 2 of this link:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Also you can add the WHO map to the list

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

 

[Caring1]

LOL! @phanbuey took the words right out of my mouth.

They are at risk anyway.

So your attitude is clearly, I'm all right Jack, stuff everyone else.
Throw as many of your alternative facts around as you like, but a little empathy for others goes a long way.
Living your life, shouldn't put the lives of others at risk!

 

[phanbuey]

So your attitude is clearly, I'm all right Jack, stuff everyone else.
Throw as many of your alternative facts around as you like, but a little empathy for others goes a long way.
Living your life, shouldn't put the lives of others at risk!

You make it sound so easy... but is it really that easy? -- how many more lives did that 20% suicide rate climb during the great depression take? will it take another 9K/year now and for the next year when we recover? 18K? you're ok with that?

What about those who work in food service or hospitality with kids who cant go to school/daycare now supposed to do? Are they supposed to just magically survive off no income and not go outside even though they're asymptomatic? Where are they in this equation? How many businesses have been wiped out? What are those people supposed to do now? - they too have families. What about all the homeless people? Construction workers? People living paycheck to paycheck (30% of americans BTW!) ?

I'm glad we all here can sit on our high horses and code and watch netflix for two weeks, but this is a seriously grim trade for those people that rely on human interaction to make a living. There's a real cost to everything that isn't just alternative facts. Empathy is realizing that it isn't just at risk old people -- there's plenty of at risk people on the other side. It's a grim trade with no good answer.

This is kind of a good time for people to come together and respect the fact that we have the choice to make our own decisions. If you want to get mad at people spreading the virus, maybe you should send your sternly worded concerns to the Chinese authorities, who tried to hide this whole thing to begin with.

 

[Dinnercore]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241803403619172359

At 1% mortality you would kill 590 people potentially. Nice. I couldn´t live with that. But to each their own.

 

[Vayra86]

View attachment 149152
*stares at New York*
View attachment 149153

Mini Italy #1. Now the struggle for beds truly begins over there. Expect a doubling of deaths daily until you can control the curve in that area...

Good news, perhaps, from the Netherlands. We are seeing a slowdown from exponential growth of deaths. Intake in ICU is still at similar levels, but we still have capacity to spare for a new wave.. Early conclusion: the partial lockdown and measures are having effect. Might be premature. But at the same time, knowing social distancing is effective, we also know this is going to be with us for quite a bit longer than this spring.

The goal is, as @the54thvoid says, not to somehow eliminate the virus but to keep the curve manageable. Our Dutch partial lockdown measures have already been lengthened to June 1st. I expect, best case, that past that date it will be a minor step back towards increased social contact. Not a full return to it.

 

[the54thvoid]

You make it sound so easy... but is it really that easy? -- how many more lives did that 20% suicide rate climb during the great depression take? will it take another 9K/year now and for the next year when we recover? 18K? you're ok with that?

What about those who work in food service or hospitality with kids who cant go to school/daycare now supposed to do? Are they supposed to just magically survive off no income and not go outside even though they're asymptomatic? Where are they in this equation? How many businesses have been wiped out? What are those people supposed to do now? - they too have families. What about all the homeless people? Construction workers? People living paycheck to paycheck (30% of americans BTW!) ?

I'm glad we all here can sit on our high horses and code and watch netflix for two weeks, but this is a seriously grim trade for those people that rely on human interaction to make a living. There's a real cost to everything that isn't just alternative facts. Empathy is realizing that it isn't just at risk old people -- there's plenty of at risk people on the other side. It's a grim trade with no good answer.

This is kind of a good time for people to come together and respect the fact that we have the choice to make our own decisions. If you want to get mad at people spreading the virus, maybe you should send your sternly worded concerns to the Chinese authorities, who tried to hide this whole thing to begin with.

Again, the systems shutting down aren't doing it to prevent deaths. Covid-19 is an infectious viral illness that spreads very fast. It doesn't kill many, and most DO have other issues. However, to let it run its course would simply place an intolerable and damaging strain on the medical sector. So, while the beds are full, all the other treatable illnesses that don't kill in our 21st century world, will atually kill. People need to stop seeing this as some sort of way to defeat the virus - it's not. It's absolutely a way to delay the inevitable impact on a nations health service. Of note, 14% of new infections in Spain are with hospital staff.

And the stats about mortality rates - they all go up when the beds are full with people with the virus. You let it runs its course, you get a lot of sick people off-work, like teachers, doctors. These are the things the measures are trying to avoid. Besides, 2 trillion US dollars is being passed to assist 'every' American. UK and EU are doing similar things to help people by.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Finally some good news.

Low Coronavirus Mutation Rate Gives Researchers Hope for a Single Vaccine

Because COVID-19 has not mutated significantly, researchers believe one vaccine — similar to the measles or chicken pox — could be possible.

nymag.com

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 2995 confirmed infected
- 43 fatalities
- 22 recovered
- 1591 waiting for test results

Biggest spike in number of cases so far, with over 600 in a day

Portugal's stance on the fatalities it declares from COVID-19: regardless of if they had other illnesses prior to catching COVID-19 or had something caused by COVID-19, the cause of death is officially stated as due to COVID-19.

 

[Vayra86]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241803403619172359

At 1% mortality you would kill 590 people potentially. Nice. I couldn´t live with that. But to each their own.

This guys says it perfectly and this should be posted everywhere. Perfectly balanced story of this threat. Big kudos

 

[EarthDog]

I really hope @lexluthermiester sees this...and more clearly understands the results of those decidedly selfish actions (and promoting them).

 

[Vario]

http://imgur.com/adhdxYM

 

[lexluthermiester]

So your attitude is clearly, I'm all right Jack, stuff everyone else.

Feel free to add me to your ignore list then as my attitude will not be changing.

~10 to 30 times more deadly than seasonal flu.

Not true and that number is VERY easy to calculate.
Currently in the United States;
55,200 cases
800 fatalities
That is approx 1.4% mortality rate. This is still FAR less deadly than ALL of the following, which everyone needs to carefully review for some proper perspective;

You're assuming that his decision stems from ignorance and lack of understanding...

FastStats

FastStats is an official application from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and puts access to topic-specific statistics at your fingertips.

www.cdc.gov

2017 causes of death:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Most of the people, not all, that die from corona virus have a co-morbidity of either heart disease, chronic respiratory or diabetes...

Thank You for posting this. Most helpful.

@Vayra86 @EarthDog
You were saying?

 

[EarthDog]

You were saying?

1.4% in the US at this moment (like you, we'll just gloss over the fact that will likely rise before it falls once the health systems start to get overrun). I quoted to you previously that FLU kills 0.1% of people who catch it (in 2018, CDC). US is at 14x that number with the number of hospitalizations increasing at rates that alarm medical professionals. According to phanbuey's numbers, 55k died of the flu in the US of ~34M cases. What does that math work out to.......0.1%... and we are 1.4% (with the world at a much higher rate, note - and where we will be in weeks time).

So, yeah, as I was saying, you are acting incredibly selfish and dismissing/glossing over other information pertinent for people to formulate an educated opinion. I've looked at your numbers and 2+2 isn't 5. Post 376 is off the rails...with "facts" that aren't facts (you don't support much...soooofaking annoyyyyyyyyyyyying - I put up 3 different links). It feels like I'm watching Trump post and then others have to come in behind and clean up the mess.

 

[Vario]

If mortality rate is between 1 and 3% then it is 10 to 30 times more deadly than the seasonal flu with a mortality rate of .1%.
If measuring infectious rate as an R0, if seasonal flu has an R1.4 and Coronavirus has an R3.0, then it is 2.14 times as a infectious.

 

[lexluthermiester]

you are acting incredibly selfish

That will be the last of the insults, passive aggressive or otherwise. Keep comments civilized or I will ask the mods to issue thread-bans.

Post 376 is off the rails...with "facts" that aren't facts.

Opinion.

(you don't support much...soooofaking annoyyyyyyyyyyyying - I put up 3 different links)

Your links do not prove or even greatly support your argument which is why I ignored them.

 

[R0H1T]

I doubt lex is going to change his mind, though as he & the US will likely find out that when this "flu" runs its course across the globe, it will have killed millions in the wake! Of course it hasn't even hit the poorest nations much yet, for instance undivided India (pre independence) had about ~18 million causalities due to the Spanish flu. That's the lower end of the estimate, the upper end is about 2x so you can imagine what it can do in the rest of the world, yeah right another "flu"

 

[EarthDog]

That will be the last of the insults, passive aggressive or otherwise. Keep comments civilized or I will ask the mods to issue thread-bans.


Opinion.


Your links do not prove or even greatly support your argument which is why I ignored them.

Make no mistake about Lex...there is absolutely nothing passive aggressive about it...I called a spade a spade (for the record, a moderator liked that post calling your thoughts selfish). That said, I won't berate you with that point further... the evidence is there for all to read.

My links both prove and supported what I said. You can't even take the time to say what it didn't prove.

You don't even address the points man, you get all hurt then take your ball and go home. Show us the light! Just lex or any random forum member posting just spouting off "fact - xxxx, conclusion - xxxxx" doesn't cut it. I'd love to work with you, but you are making it impossible with your replies sometimes. It's a shame...

EDIT: How can anyone have a discussion when someone brings up a counter point and you blow it off? I used phanbuey's numbers (that you support) and nary a mention of that.............