Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[Liquid Cool]

The whole cryptocoin market is crashing again. I wonder what caused it this time?

Good morning LLM...

Perhaps the cryptos are just caught up in the drama going on in the broad markets.

The broad markets have been reaching a 30-day cycle low every 30 days from the May 10th peak(May 19th low). That is unless the 30 day period is over a weekend. Which for us currently was yesterday, the 19th of September. So...you get the scary stuff the following day...which is today. Now...if you don't get a reversal tomorrow, then it's a heads up that something else might be afoot.



Best Regards,

Liquid Cool

 

[trog100]

The whole cryptocoin market is crashing again. I wonder what caused it this time?

evergrande a large chinese properly set up going or gone bust.. its spooking the markets including the crypto markets..

how it all pans out is yet to be seen.. it could trigger a world wide melt down..

its not crypto specific..

trog

 

[Nater]

I bought $100 of Bitcoin this morning when it dipped to 44.8k. Should have waited just a few more hours.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Weird. Has that happened before? The cryptomarket mirroring the stock markets?

In case anyone wonders, I watch the following;

Coinranking | Cryptocurrency Prices - Top 50 List

View the list with all cryptocurrency prices of today. View live values of Bitcoin, Ethereum and thousands more.

coinranking.com

 

[LFaWolf]

I bought $100 of Bitcoin this morning when it dipped to 44.8k. Should have waited just a few more hours.

Lesson I learned over many years of investing - never buy the first dip. If it makes a quick bounce back, okay, you miss it, but the gain would not be that much anyway. But if you buy during the downward spiral, the pain will be felt.

 

[cvaldes]

The whole cryptocoin market is crashing again. I wonder what caused it this time?

Crypto is still an extremely immature financial marketplace.

It is regularly subject to the capricious behavior of easily distracted buyers and sellers as well as broad market influences. Selloffs of 50%+ are routine for cryptos. Crypto is not an island. It's still emotional humans buying and selling.

Crypto is a good market for swing trading. It is still way too volatile for long-term investing unless you don't care much about sleeping soundly.

This still looks like a typical crypto selloff to me.

And it's not like half of the miners turned off their rigs. In fact, this is an excellent example of how little miners influence spot crypto pricing. Nor do we see GPU prices plummeting today either.

If you want to make money in crypto, trade the currency.

Mining really only makes money for exchanges and brokers (through fees and commissions). Oh, and lest we forget: electric utility companies.

 

[trog100]

Weird. Has that happened before? The cryptomarket mirroring the stock markets?

In case anyone wonders, I watch the following;

Coinranking | Cryptocurrency Prices - Top 50 List

View the list with all cryptocurrency prices of today. View live values of Bitcoin, Ethereum and thousands more.

coinranking.com

ultimately its all connected.. when things look good prices go up when they look bad prices go down.. gold and silver also took a hit..

there is a real fear that contagion will spread from china to the rest of the world.. in the modern world everybody owes everybody.. if evergrande defaults on its debt repayments it mean a whole bunch of other people wont have the money to meet their own debt repayments.. its a house of cards waiting to collapse..

over time some things will recover faster than others.. this little crisis may just blow over but it could spiral out of control... we will soon know..

trog

 

[Nater]

Lesson I learned over many years of investing - never buy the first dip. If it makes a quick bounce back, okay, you miss it, but the gain would not be that much anyway. But if you buy during the downward spiral, the pain will be felt.

Haha, funny u say that. I didn't! I almost bought a couple hours before that but decided to go back to sleep. (my phone had dinged w/ the dip alert) Guess I should have waited for everyone else to get out of bed.

 

[cvaldes]

Uh, cryptocurrencies aren't exclusively traded by people in your timezone.

About a third of the world is sleep, the rest are awake. At any given moment there are people going to sleep and people waking up.

Note that cryptocurrency is traded 24x7 unlike the major securities and commodity markets. You don't need to wait until 9:30am ET on a weekday to start trading crypto.

 

[LFaWolf]

ultimately its all connected.. when things look good prices go up when they look bad prices go down.. gold and silver also took a hit..

there is a real fear that contagion will spread from china to the rest of the world.. in the modern world everybody owes everybody.. if evergrande defaults on its debt repayments it mean a whole bunch of other people wont have the money to meet their own debt repayments.. its a house of cards waiting to collapse..

over time some things will recover faster than others.. this little crisis may just blow over but it could spiral out of control... we will soon know..

trog

China would not let it go bankrupt. Rather, it wants to use this as an opportunity to show why unregulated capitalism is bad. It will lay out its agenda in the coming days or weeks, but ultimately will help the company so it won't go under. However, investors or creditors of Evergrande will suffer losses. If anyone who is interested to invest, wait a few days or a week. It should dip further but it will bounce back. This could be a good investment opportunity.

 

[defaultluser]

China would not let it go bankrupt. Rather, it wants to use this as an opportunity to show why unregulated capitalism is bad. It will lay out its agenda in the coming days or weeks, but ultimately will help the company so it won't go under. However, investors or creditors of Evergrande will suffer losses. If anyone who is interested to invest, wait a few days or a week. It should dip further but it will bounce back. This could be a good investment opportunity.

This doesn't matter if you can still prop things up: see the last financial crisis, where it took years for banks to start trusting businesses / individuals with loans again! Your housing builder bailout plan is going to have to make viability checks to every development in your future catalog to avoid building phantom towns (or else you will just see the same thing a few years later)

Under-occupied developments in China - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The bailouts are just intended to to pay staff, and refill the coffers after they hit the "reset" button ; bailouts are just intended so you don't have to rebuild an entire loan industry from the ground-up.

And if you think they don't make a lot of these debts just magically disappear during the bailout, you're smoking something quite powerful!!

 

[LFaWolf]

This doesn't matter if you can still prop things up: see the last financial crisis, where it took years for banks to start trusting businesses / individuals with loans again! Your housing builder bailout plan is going to have to make viability checks to every development in your future catalog to avoid building phantom towns (or else you will just see the same thing a few years later)

Under-occupied developments in China - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The bailouts are just intended to to pay staff, and refill the coffers after they hit the "reset" button ; bailouts are just intended so you don't have to rebuild an entire loan industry from the ground-up.

And if you think they don't make a lot of these debts just magically disappear during the bailout, you're smoking something quite powerful!!

I have no idea what you just said. Are you saying no bailout? Bailout is bad?

 

[R-T-B]

Please some of you stop the bs, el salvador is an island, they have no gdp that would make a dent on btc price in any way, if china or the US would have adopted btc then yes. Anyway, I still think btc will go to 79k then crash back to 10k, this is just a trap for people to sell before going up again and the road is clear 79k then when sheeps think btc will go to 100k then the manipulators will crash btc price as much as 80% and the rest of all altcoins as much as 99%.

I too doubt any of this most recent crash has jack to do with El Salvador. They are limited to publicity in terms of how they affect the price, not much more.

Do note however, El Salvador is a country in central America, not an island.

And it's not like half of the miners turned off their rigs.

I mean, China did basically just do that. But we have recovered from it by now and that only drove the price up... less supply etc. Then difficulty adjusted nullifying it.

Weird. Has that happened before? The cryptomarket mirroring the stock markets?

It is indeed uncommon.

 

[lexluthermiester]

It is indeed uncommon.

Ok, so I'm not alone in thinking that..

 

[Chomiq]

China would not let it go bankrupt. Rather, it wants to use this as an opportunity to show why unregulated capitalism is bad.

Not according to this:

In a post on China's chat app and social media platform WeChat, the influential editor-in-chief of state-backed Global Times newspaper Hu Xijin said Evergrande should not rely on a government bailout and instead needs to save itself.
This also chimes with Beijing's aim to rein in corporate debt, which means that such a high profile bailout could be seen as setting a bad example.

Evergrande: Why should I care if China property giant collapses?

The crisis at the heavily-indebted property giant deepened as a Hong Kong court ordered it to be wound up.

www.bbc.com

 

[Outback Bronze]

It is indeed uncommon.

It seems to be coming more common though no?

Remember March 2020? Everything fell together. I'm under the impression they are becoming more tied as time moves forward.

 

[LFaWolf]

Not according to this:

Evergrande: Why should I care if China property giant collapses?

The crisis at the heavily-indebted property giant deepened as a Hong Kong court ordered it to be wound up.

www.bbc.com

Again, China is going to use this golden opportunity to “teach a lesson” that unregulated capitalism is bad. The thing that started Evergrande’s collapse was a new law that regulates a company from getting new loan based on its cash flow. Suddenly Evergrande’s pyramid scheme of borrowing more money to pay its debt doesn’t work anymore. China making that law knowing full well Evergrande will be going under. How could it not know? Evergrande is the second largest real estate company in China with a $300 billion pyramid scheme. Heck, the law was probably written just for it
I don’t know exactly how the bailout will be structured, but Evergrande still has plenty of real properties, and the government will step in to divide them up to other real estate companies and get them to pay the banks, something of that nature. It is indeed too big to fail, with its finances too intertwined with too many banks in China. The sell off of the market yesterday was due to the concerns of cross default. Otherwise, why would a failed company in China worries investors in USA?
However, Evergrande as it stands now will probably be gone. The losers will be foreign investors and creditors. China will protect its domestic banks and investors, but not any foreigners, so don’t buy the stock even if it looks super cheap.

 

[defaultluser]

I have no idea what you just said. Are you saying no bailout? Bailout is bad?

No, I'm saying that no bailout can avert the massive change in business practices a housing provider in China needs to make (As part of their bailout plan)

An EXAMPLE: when the US Government bailed-out General Motors, they came with several caveats attached.: Close unprofitable divisions like Saturn, Pontiac, Sabb, , allow the us ngovernemnt to elect board members and then then modify how easily they process loan applications on their cars through General Motors Acceptance Corporation (GMAC).

There will be similar long-list of required business changes in any other bailout (and for China housing, if half of your available "regular" developers" disappear, then they business just stops moving ) - your planned developments need to get unplanned overnight!

There is always fallout from any major business change.

 

[ThrashZone]

Again, China is going to use this golden opportunity to “teach a lesson” that unregulated capitalism is bad. The thing that started Evergrande’s collapse was a new law that regulates a company from getting new loan based on its cash flow. Suddenly Evergrande’s pyramid scheme of borrowing more money to pay its debt doesn’t work anymore. China making that law knowing full well Evergrande will be going under. How could it not know? Evergrande is the second largest real estate company in China with a $300 billion pyramid scheme. Heck, the law was probably written just for it
I don’t know exactly how the bailout will be structured, but Evergrande still has plenty of real properties, and the government will step in to divide them up to other real estate companies and get them to pay the banks, something of that nature. It is indeed too big to fail, with its finances too intertwined with too many banks in China. The sell off of the market yesterday was due to the concerns of cross default. Otherwise, why would a failed company in China worries investors in USA?
However, Evergrande as it stands now will probably be gone. The losers will be foreign investors and creditors. China will protect its domestic banks and investors, but not any foreigners, so don’t buy the stock even if it looks super cheap.

Hi,
Yeah they'll use that argument but in the end China gov will just teach them how to manipulate data properly just as they do with their currency so loss/ inflation doesn't occur at all

 

[R0H1T]

evergrande a large chinese properly set up going or gone bust.. its spooking the markets including the crypto markets..

how it all pans out is yet to be seen.. it could trigger a world wide melt down..

its not crypto specific..

trog

They won't, unless the CCP finds absolutely no use for it!

 

[lexluthermiester]

Hey folks, while this discussion is interesting, we're getting off topic here. Let's rope it in so the mods don't have to...

 

[trog100]

Hey folks, while this discussion is interesting, we're getting off topic here. Let's rope it in so the mods don't have to...

you wondered why crypto was going down.. evergrande and what is happening to it is part of that why..

it is quite serious and hasnt fully panned out yet.. as i keep saying on the grand scale of things it is all connected..

for a number of years china has been building towns that nobody will ever live in.. this has been seen as an investment.. maybe poorly built skyscrapers that will fall apart with age and will never be lived in aint such a good investment after all.. this thing is way bigger than evergrande.. they were just part of it..

trog

 

[cvaldes]

As crypto matures and becomes more mainstream, it will increasingly be tied to the broader financial markets. Ecuador accepting bitcoin as legal tender is just one of these moments.

The days of crypto being completely isolated from the rest of the financial world are coming to a close faster than many here seem to understand.

 

[LFaWolf]

Bitcoin is tumbling toward $40k as I have predicted. I think $40k is the support. If it breaks through that then I think it could go down further.

Ethereum is below $2900 as of now. I am not sure what would be the support line since I don't follow it much. Anyone has any idea?

Someone recommended me to buy Uni Swap at $25. Whew, avoided that disaster.

 

[dorsetknob]

Ecuador accepting bitcoin as legal tender

Think you mean El Salvador.
The present currency of Ecuador is the United States dollar.