Intel's leadership has announced the hastened expansion of 20 A and 18 A-capable fabrication facilities in Arizona, in order to meet next year's anticipated manufacturing demand from Foundry Services clients. Team Blue's native efforts are possibly not enough in the eyes of an investment bank—Taiwan's Commercial Times has managed to take a look at industry analysis conducted by Goldman Sachs Securities. Intel is predicted to broaden its outsourcing to TSMC in 2024 and 2025—although a part of said report proposes the hypothetically bizarre scenario where Intel outsources all of its products at a cost of $18.6 billion in 2024, and $19.4 billion in 2025 (in terms of total addressable market). A more down-to-earth synopsis outlines TSMC winning Intel outsourcing contracts worth $5.6 billion in 2024, and $9.7 billion for 2025.

According to Trendforce's report this would approximately account: "for 6.4% and 9.4% of TSMC's overall revenue in the corresponding years." Industry analyst Andrew Lu was contacted for comment on the conjectural conditions: "(this) explains that Intel's wafer chip manufacturing division competes with TSMC, rather than its design division. The design division is striving for survival in the high-speed computing semiconductor sector, and it is currently hopeful for close collaboration with TSMC. Lu even predicts that Intel's wafer manufacturing and design divisions will inevitably be further separated into two companies several years down the line."

The Financial Times believes that Apple is running into major production issues related to its Vision Pro mixed reality headset—insider sources claim that the mega-sized multinational technology company is adjusting internal sales goals for the $3499 AR/VR "spatial computer." Leadership had set an ambitious internal target of 1 million units sold in 2024, but the complexity of the system's design has apparently caused major setbacks for manufacturing partners. Apple is reported to have signed up with Luxshare, a Chinese contract manufacturer, to assemble Vision Pro headsets—insiders within both organizations reckon that only 400,000 units will be ready for sale throughout 2024. This number seems to be fairly optimistic given that Trendforce predicted that a mere 200,000 would be shipped next year.

FT gathered information from two other sources placed within the Chinese supply chain—they claim that Apple and Luxshare could encounter major component shortages in 2024, resulting in a production shortfall—with an estimated 130,000 to 150,000 finalized units. The article points out that the most complex (and costly) aspect of the headset lies in its micro-OLED display setup, that also includes outward facing lenses. TSMC and Sony are reported to be the suppliers of these parts (as featured on the prototypes), but Apple is allegedly not satisfied with low production numbers, and not enough batches are "free of defects." A cheaper version of the Vision Pro is apparently now on the backburner, since Apple is unlikely to recoup—factoring in R&D expenses—within the first year of the intial product's launch.

The price of GDDR6 memory has continued to fall sharply - over recent financial quarters - due to an apparent decrease in demand for graphics cards. Supply shortages are also a thing of the past—industry experts think that manufacturers have been having an easier time acquiring components since late 2021, but that also means that the likes of NVIDIA and AMD have been paying less for VRAM packages. Graphics card enthusiasts will be questioning why these savings have not been passed on swiftly to the customer, as technology news outlets (this week) have been picking up on interesting data—it demonstrates that spot prices of GDDR6 have decreased to less than a quarter of their value from a year and a half ago. 3DCenter.org has presented a case example of 8 GB GDDR6 now costing $27 via the spot market (through DRAMeXchange's tracking system), although manufacturers will be paying less than that due to direct contract agreements with their favored memory chip maker/supplier.

A 3DCenter.org staffer had difficulty sourcing the price of 16 Gb GDDR6 VRAM ICs on the spot market, so it is tricky to paint a comparative picture of how much more expensive it is to equip a "budget friendly" graphics card with a larger allocation of video memory, when the bill-of-materials (BoM) and limits presented by narrow bus widths are taken into account. NVIDIA is releasing a GeForce RTX 4060 Ti 16 GB variant in July, but the latest batch of low to mid-range models (GeForce RTX 4060-series and Radeon RX 7600) are still 8 GB affairs. Tom's Hardware points to GPU makers sticking with traditional specification hierarchy for the most part going forward: "(models) with double the VRAM (two 16 Gb chips per channel on both sides of the PCB) are usually reserved for the more lucrative professional GPU market."

As third quarters have typically been peak seasons for the production of various end-products, the sufficiency ratio of DRAM is expected to undergo a further decrease in 3Q21, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. However, DRAM buyers are now carrying a relatively high DRAM inventory due to their amplified purchases of electronic components in 1H21. The QoQ increase in DRAM contract prices are hence expected to slightly narrow from 18-23% in 2Q21 to 3-8% in 3Q21. Looking ahead to 4Q21, TrendForce believes that DRAM supply will continue to rise, thereby leading to either a further narrowing of price hikes or pressure constraining the potential price hike of DRAM products.

From the perspective of demand, the stay-at-home economy has resulted in persistently high demand for notebook computers. Although discrepancies still exist among notebook brands' inventory levels of various components, these brands are still making an aggressive attempt at maximizing their production of notebooks. However, as most of these brands are still carrying about 8-10 weeks' worth of PC DRAM inventory (which is relatively high), PC DRAM purchasing strategies from the buyers' side will therefore remain relatively conservative. From the perspective of supply, due to the rising demand for server DRAM, the production capacity allocated to PC DRAM is still in a severe supply crunch. Hence, DRAM suppliers are firm in their attitudes to raise PC DRAM quotes, and TrendForce expects the price negotiations between PC DRAM buyers and suppliers in 3Q21 to become both lengthier and more difficult as a result, with contract prices likely finalized at the end of July. Even so, what is now certain is that both sides have reached some level of understanding regarding the ongoing price hike of PC DRAM products. TrendForce forecasts a 3-8% increase in PC DRAM contract prices for 3Q21.

The following analysis shows TrendForce's investigations of key component and other downstream technology industries, under the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, with the latest data as of February 14, 2020.

Semiconductors
Compared to the OSAT industry, the foundry industry has a much higher degree of fab automation and thus is less impacted by the outbreak. But because most workers at semiconductor manufacturing sites in China come from out of town, labor shortages and traffic restrictions will lower work resumption rates at foundries more than expected. In the short term, fab utilization rates may not make a full recovery. As a result, given that the outbreak has not yet been effectively contained, TrendForce is projecting a possible decline in shipment for the Chinese foundry industry in 1Q20, in turn affecting downstream Chinese OSAT companies. The industry's overall performance recovery remains to be seen.

Trendforce, via its market analysis division DRAMeXchange, announced yesterday that it expected DRAM pricing to fall even more than previously estimated. The motive behind this is Huawei's ban following the US-China trade war, which will limit Huawei's ability to deliver its server and, especially, smartphone products. With companies being banned from trading with the Chinese firm, a voracious consumer of the US-tied DRAM production has just evaporated without a trace. This means increasing inventories amidst a freeze in demand due to uncertainty in the overall markets, which will obviously tip the supply-demand balance.

This has led TrendForce to officially adjust its outlook for 3Q DRAM prices from its original prediction of a 10% decline to a widened 10-15% decline, with an additional 10% decline in the fourth quarter. And of course, after prices hit rock bottom, they can only go up, which is why DRAMeXchange expects prices can only increase - and DRAM manufacturers' outlook improve - come 2020. Gear up for those DRAM upgrades this year, folks.

A DRAM market pricing watch report from DRAMeXchange, a division of Trendforce, has just outed a prediction for DRAM price drops towards 2019 and into the same year. The report points to already-decreased by 10.14% pricing (US$34.5 in 3Q18 to the current US$31) for 4GB PC DRAM modules in the market, relative to the previous quarter, as a sign for continued drops. 8 GB DRAM module pricing has declined by 10.29%, signaling an increased inventory of those parts.

The report also states that suppliers have just reached the inflection point for oversupply, despite continued efforts from manufacturers to artificially decrease manufacturing to keep a strain on demand. The report further states that "The ASP in the whole DRAM market is forecast to fall by as much as around 20% YoY in 2019, according to DRAMeXchange's latest analysis. After reaching peak profit in 3Q18, DRAM suppliers are now optimizing their costs so that they will have a soft landing in 2019 as prices are marked down every quarter."

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, has come forward with the expected announcement that DRAM output in 2018 likely won't be enough to fully satisfy supply. This has been the case for some time now. However, what started with simple insufficient output that could contain the explosion of DRAM capacity in smartphones seems to now be turning into a conscious decision by the three top memory manufacturers. Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are seemingly setting output at a lower than required level so as to artificially inflate pricing due to low supply. TrendForce themselves say so, in that these suppliers "(...) have opted to slow down their capacity expansions and technology migrations so that they can keep next year's prices at the same high level as during this year's second half. Doing so will also help them to sustain a strong profit margin."

DRAM production is expected to increase by 19,6% in 2018; however, this ratio is lower than the expected growth in demand, which is being pegged at 20,6%. This means 2018 is likely to see increased constraint in the supply channels (whereas 2018 was actually expected to see a slight relief in supply issues). This means that pricing will either stabilize or tend to increase from current levels. To be fair, semiconductor production isn't as simple as hitting a "increase production by 10x" button; reports say that all three players are contending with insufficient room to expand output on their production lines, and getting a new production facility online isn't a trivial effort - neither in funds, nor on time. However... All involved companies would much rather keep prices as they are than see them being brought down by oversupply.

If you didn't already know, semiconductor production plants are some of the most aseptic locations you can usually find deployed around the world (remember those pictures of engineers wearing full-body suits and face masks?) As is often the case with cutting edge technology, there is usually no place for variable conditions; precision-level manufacturing requires the most stable, predictable working and manufacturing conditions that can possibly be achieved. When something goes wrong, say, when the nitrogen gas dispensing system of a major semiconductor manufacturing facility acts up and releases uncalibrated amounts of gas, things can go very wrong, very quickly.

That is exactly what happened with Micron's Fab 2 in Taiwan. Fab 2 was a result of Micron's Inotera acquisition, and production from this fab accounts for around 5.5% of the global DRAM supply (125,000 wafers per month) Due to the nitrogen gas dispenser malfunction, both wafers and equipment were contaminated, which Trendforce says reduced Inotera's production capability by 60,000 wafers. Now, granted, Micron has already officially come out and say that this was all a "minor accident" which "had no impact" on business. However, one has to consider that Fab 2 mainly specializes in production of LPDDR4 memory, which is essentially used in mobile phone environments - Apple being the company's biggest consumer of DRAM chips. With iPhone 8 production supposedly in full swing, if I were Micron, I would certainly prefer to take a bite out of my DRAM supplies than admit production capacity reduction and shortages to such a partner. If Apple were to take its business elsewhere, Micron would be hard-pressed to find another customer of that caliber.

Continuing the trend of previous reports, DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports the general price increase in the PC DRAM market is growing larger than anticipated as the already tight supply situation is compounded by quality problems with products made on the leading-edge processes. Based on a preliminary survey of completed contracts for the second quarter, DRAMeXchange estimates that the average contract price of 4GB DDR4 modules will go up by about 12.5% compared with the first quarter, from US$24 to around US$27.

"PC-OEMs that have been negotiating their second-quarter memory contracts initially expected the market supply to expand because Samsung and Micron have begun to produce on the 18 nm and the 17 nm processes, respectively," said Avril Wu, research director of DRAMeXchange. "However, both Samsung and Micron have encountered setbacks related to sampling and yield, so the supply situation remains tight going into the second quarter and PC DRAM prices will continue to rise through this three-month period."