Friday, August 10th 2018

Goldman Sachs Upgrades Stock Ratings for AMD, Downgrades Intel to "Sell"

Goldman Sachs, citing problems with Intel's 10 nm manufacturing process delivery - which was supposed to be available in the market for years now - has reduced the blue giant's stock rating. Previously at a "neutral" stance - already downgraded in the face of Intel's manufacturing woes - the stock is now at a "Sell" level. Even though Intel is still outperforming the S&P 500's 6.7 percent return with their (current) 8.6 percent this year through Thursday, the outlook isn't good for the company.
"We see Intel's struggles with 10 nm process technology having ramifications in terms of its competitive position - across a broad set of products. While the 10nm push is well-publicized at this point, we believe Intel's manufacturing issues could potentially be deeper-rooted than what most think and could have a sustained impact on market share and/or spending levels as Intel competes with a growing/stronger TSMC eco-system."

Goldman Sachs Analyst Toshiya Hari
As to AMD, Goldman Sachs has a much more positive outlook, moving the company's shares from the "sell" rating it was in to a "neutral" stance. Citing belief in increased server and consumer market penetration with AMD's products in the next two years: AMD's server chip market share will rise to 5.1 percent in 2019 and increase to 9.4 percent in 2020 from an estimated 2.2 percent this year.
"We find it increasingly harder to argue our prior bear thesis - even following the recent stock price move - given Intel's struggles with 10nm process technology. The delay in Intel's new products will allow AMD to gain share in not only client (i.e. desktop PC, notebook PC) CPUs, but also in the lucrative server CPU market."

Goldman Sachs Analyst Toshiya Hari
AMD's stock was - and likely still is - terribly undervalued for the company's IP and expertise - the underdog terminology has served to put the company's outlook in a much more negative view than it needed to be - this still is the only second company that's capable of designing x86 chips, and let's not forget how it's been delivering on that front in no shy means in the last two years. Owing to that same undervaluation, though, AMD's stock has risen 85.8 percent this year through Thursday versus the S&P 500's 6.7 percent return. The chip stock's performance ranks as the second-best return in the S&P 500 this year.
Sources: CNBC Intel, CNBC AMD
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47 Comments on Goldman Sachs Upgrades Stock Ratings for AMD, Downgrades Intel to "Sell"

#26
Dimi
Like anyone should ever do or follow Goldman Sachs, large scale thieves and disruptors.
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#27
nemesis.ie
They have been pushing AMD down for the last 2 years or more and now do a U-turn when it suits their own pockets/client agenda.
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#28
TheGuruStud
nemesis.ieThey have been pushing AMD down for the last 2 years or more and now do a U-turn when it suits their own pockets/client agenda.
That's how you know intel stock is screwed lol
Posted on Reply
#29
mtcn77
DimiLike anyone should ever do or follow Goldman Sachs, large scale thieves and disruptors.
Whoa, whoa, whoa, fellow troll! Let us bury our hatchet this one time...
Posted on Reply
#30
timta2
mtcn77Whoa, whoa, whoa, fellow troll! Let us bury our hatchet this one time...
Call him whatever names you want, be he isn't wrong.
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#31
StrayKAT
Yeah, when is badmouthing Goldman Sachs ever bad?
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#32
phanbuey
Well... intel now has jim keller and is about to perfect the double layer 10 nm, so I would wait for it to drop then buy the hell out of this stock... You know that AMD with no Keller means they will just slowly collapse like a flan after the zen2 high.
Posted on Reply
#33
hat
Enthusiast
Can you really determine the success of an entire company on one man? I'm sure AMD has more than just Keller to rely on...
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#34
phanbuey
hatCan you really determine the success of an entire company on one man? I'm sure AMD has more than just Keller to rely on...
you absolutely can -- not because he deserves sole credit for anything but he has been a consistent catalyst and team leader that has generated huge strides... Also now he is going to intel and will combine what he learned from zen with what they have.

The potential is massive.

Intel will not only get the scoop on what AMD was able to do, but will now be able to swing its billions in the right direction. Keller oversaw the birth of zen and athlon on a shoestring budget... intel is sitting on a few aces... unless they really play this wrong they will come out on top.
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#35
B-Real
lynx29It's also possible that none of this matters, Intel chips are still best for gaming according to all the numbers, especially in minimum FPS, also a lot of productivity software I know yuotubers use seem to have odd issues once in awhile with Ryzen. If the 8 core 16 thread 9900k is priced right and it really can do 5ghz overclocked.... even Ryzen x570 next year might not be able to match it... AMD is struggling hardcore with its ability to increase clock speed. I have my eye on the 9900k next year, unless its way too pricey, or AMD x570 lineup in summer 2019 is still stuck at 4.4ghz or less... I need IPC, nothing else. IPC is king for what I do.
Don't think so. And btw, 9900K will not perform better in games than a 9700K-9600K for sure. May be even worse.

"I know yuotubers use seem to have odd issues once in awhile with Ryzen"

And Youtubers who use Intel have issues once in a while too. For multithread-supported productivity, Ryzen is the good to go at a price/performance ratio. And for Youtubers, that's usually what matters.
lynx29I really hope they don't squander it as well. However, I have a gut feeling GTX 2080 is going to decimate whatever GDDR6 cards they can produce amongst all tier levels, AMD will probably win at budget as they always do, but for men like you and me... 90% chance we are forced to roll with Nvidia again, just from sheer number gains. Such as the 1080 ti beating vega in a maojrity of games by over 40% 50%+ when both cards were overclocked, at 1440p high refresh. For budget gamers though, AMD next year = a great time to be alive.

GTX 1070 is not overkill at 1080p like so many claim, if you like high refresh that is, which most of us here do these days.
Everything is relative. GTX 1070 reviews said it is overkill. As they weren't thinking of high refresh monitors, as for most of the gamers 60 fps is totally enough. So I think you are wrong with the claim "most of us here these days". Just check the numbers. Nearly twice as much GTX 1060 is sold than GTX 1070, 1080 and 1080Ti together. And GTX 1060 is not bought by people playing browser games. :)
Posted on Reply
#36
nemesis.ie
phanbueyyou absolutely can -- not because he deserves sole credit for anything but he has been a consistent catalyst and team leader that has generated huge strides... Also now he is going to intel and will combine what he learned from zen with what they have.

The potential is massive.

Intel will not only get the scoop on what AMD was able to do, but will now be able to swing its billions in the right direction. Keller oversaw the birth of zen and athlon on a shoestring budget... intel is sitting on a few aces... unless they really play this wrong they will come out on top.
Actually, you can look at this another way, JK is a mercenary, he goes where the interesting (to him) work is. Quite likely he will do at Intel just what he did at AMD, come in for 2 years, design some stuff and then move on.

He could very well leave Intel and go back to AMD in 2 years just when they may (but they may not) need a little "pick me up" in their road map.

It looks very like the Zen road-map extends to at least Zen 5; given Ryzen gen 2 is Zen 1.5, they could well have competitive stuff in the pipeline until at least 2022 and can pull things in a bit if the competition heats up.

So if JK went back to AMD again (with any new ideas he had for the next thing after what he did with Intel) in 2020 or 2021 that could keep AMD competitive/ahead for another 3 or 4 years.
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#37
HD64G
phanbueyWell... intel now has jim keller and is about to perfect the double layer 10 nm, so I would wait for it to drop then buy the hell out of this stock... You know that AMD with no Keller means they will just slowly collapse like a flan after the zen2 high.
Keller was the leader of the team that designed the Zen core. After the gen 1, the rest of the team who designed it and stayed in AMD, are evolving this arch and now they are designing the gen 4 or 5 that will lead up until 2022 or even later. And the core that Keller will help intel get will not be on market for sale up until 2020 or later. So, AMD is in a good position for at least 3 more years. And the critical point in this cpu market is obtaining server deals. And for intel case, they won't be able to reverse the tides towards them in this market for the next 4-5 years. AMD is on the roll atm with their infinity fabric design. That's why their 32c-64t will be for sale at $1700 tomorrow and the highest intel part on this class will come later renamed from a xeon model costing $10.000 to battle that one. Srver market is about efficiency, cost and parallelism. This is why stock market suggests AMD to rise and Intel to fall in the short-mid future.
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#38
Caring1
phanbueyWell... intel now has jim keller and is about to perfect the double layer 10 nm.....
It looks more like Helen Keller was put in charge of the 10Nm fab process ….. :roll:
Posted on Reply
#39
Smartcom5
RejZoRWell, Intel can still manufacture CPU's at TSMC if they wish so even with their own fabs. The problem that creates is perception of their competence if their own fabs can't produce the latest and greatest they design chips for, one may start questioning if their latest and greatest node design isn't all that good. Again, that would just be a perception to an outsider, not necessarily an inferior product or node design.
Well, sure … The other option would be if Intel would just go there and would buy into any other foundries in any greater volumes or even on a large scale (Pro-Tip: They are their direct competitors). However, this would equal total declaration of bankruptcy (including the most fatal loss of reputation, not just on the stock market ...). As a result, their stock price would maybe not hit rock bottom, but they should make billions in losses in the low to mid double digits, to say the least.

The least what then would going to happen, will be, that they have had to hang up their foundry-business completely – as no-one in this business is ever going to a) accept their lack of reliability or b) would trust any of their promises in terms of fabbing chips, yields, schedules or similar in general ever again (which seems to be already the case, given that more and more partners jumping their ship lately and they have less and less partners which are willing to have their chips produced using Intel's nodes ...).

But hey, we're still talking about Intel. A semiconductor manufacturer and the most iconic chip producer in history, who consider themselves being the biggest chipmakers since the invention of electricity. Apart from that, there would be some rather real chances for massive Chinese industrial espionage, the most sacred of Intel's crown jewels: their state-of-the-art processors and elementary x86 IPs.

So, before something like that is going to happen, I don't know ... It'll be a cold day in hell when that happens.
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#40
ssdpro
And with that news AMD stock opened the day Friday at 19.09 per share and closed at 19.10. Intel started the day at 48.51 and closed at 48.85. Intel had a cash on hand after dividend of 340 billion at the end of Q2, AMD cash on hand of 2 billion. I think you can save your kleenex for another company.


www.fool.com/investing/2018/07/17/a-sneak-peek-at-intels-q2-2018-earnings.aspx
www.intc.com/investor-relations/investor-education-and-news/investor-news/press-release-details/2018/Intel-Reports-Second-Quarter-2018-Financial-Results/
Posted on Reply
#41
Jism
Caring1It looks more like Helen Keller was put in charge of the 10Nm fab process ….. :roll:
Keller is'nt some sort of god, keller just knows his stuff and esp when it comes to designing and creating chips.

It's just that Glofo / TSCM are ahead compared to Intel, and AMD did create a very good and solid CPU which is capable of scaling up to 32 cores / 64 threads without costing a fortune to produce. From every slice of silicon they have, they sort out the best working parts and put it on the TR series, the less qualifying chips to Ryzen and so on. Nothing is lost in the proces and AMD is able to milk as much as possible from every silicon.

This is what they needed, that impulse. Otherwise if there would be another Bulldozer AMD was forced to be another VIA in the market, just putting out embedded products and nothing more.

Now if AMD was able to put a outstanding graphics card / compute card back on the market again then things would be very brightfull for the company in the future.
Posted on Reply
#42
efikkan
It's interesting to see all these people cheering over Intel's "pending demise", it makes people's bias very obvious.
Most are forgetting that nodes never deliver their potential from day one. The mature 7nm with good yields in volumes will be the 7nm+ nodes, which GF and TSMC expect to start producing late 2019/2020, and that's assuming they are successful with EUV. TSMC seems to be first at 7nm, but we have to remember that Nvidia have most of the volume booked here, so AMD would have to carefully select which products to prioritize. In the beginning, the process will be slow due to the complex patterning, we should expect AMD to prioritize premium products first, then gradually ramp up production. It's highly unlikely that AMD will be able to flood the CPU market with 7nm products before Q3 2019. When Intel hits their yield target, their massive production capacity should be able to deliver higher volumes than AMD can dream of.
ssdproAnd with that news AMD stock opened the day Friday at 19.09 per share and closed at 19.10. Intel started the day at 48.51 and closed at 48.85. Intel had a cash on hand after dividend of 340 billion at the end of Q2, AMD cash on hand of 2 billion. I think you can save your kleenex for another company.
You should be careful, fragile minds might not handle the truth that well ;)
Posted on Reply
#43
mtcn77
efikkanIt's interesting to see all these people cheering over Intel's "pending demise", it makes people's bias very obvious.
Most are forgetting that nodes never deliver their potential from day one. The mature 7nm with good yields in volumes will be the 7nm+ nodes, which GF and TSMC expect to start producing late 2019/2020, and that's assuming they are successful with EUV. TSMC seems to be first at 7nm, but we have to remember that Nvidia have most of the volume booked here, so AMD would have to carefully select which products to prioritize. In the beginning, the process will be slow due to the complex patterning, we should expect AMD to prioritize premium products first, then gradually ramp up production. It's highly unlikely that AMD will be able to flood the CPU market with 7nm products before Q3 2019. When Intel hits their yield target, their massive production capacity should be able to deliver higher volumes than AMD can dream of.


You should be careful, fragile minds might not handle the truth that well ;)
I don't believe AMD was the specific vendor which had built an inventory of 1M units expectantly until the end of the mining craze put a halt to that.
Posted on Reply
#44
londiste
XzibitThe real issue for Intel is what does it do after they sort their 10nm. Their last years roadmap were stil showing moving to 7nm then 5nm. Are those going to experience the same delays.
Normally developing the next generation of process is going semi-independently of the current one. Intel's 7nm is not there yet but it is on its way. 10nm delays do not affect it all that directly.
HD64GPoint is that blue giant is at least 4 years behind their 10nm manufacturing process schedule. And their most possible solution is to abandon their original plan and redesign that 10nm for a close to 14nm one just to not let all know their total failure. My bet is that they will go to 7nm very fast after they release some 10nm-ish products. They are in deep problem atm.
Hell no. 10nm is about twice the transistor density of 14nm. They simply cannot afford to stay on 14nm for that much longer. Intel needs their 10nm to compete with TSMC's 7nm. Whether Intel is on track with 7nm we really don't know yet, it's scheduled to 2021 for now.
chimonowIt's totally possible! Intel's not going to have mainstream 10nm until 2nd half of 2019! Amd may very well be on their second iteration of their 7nm CPU's by then. It all depends on the memory latency and clock frequency improvements that 7nm brings and we'll find out in a relatively short 6-8 months.
AMD isn't. TSMC and/or GF is. We do not know quite yet how much on track GF is on 7nm. They are producing but I think the only thing publicly revealed as in production is Vega 20 (together with TSMC). TSMC 7nm production capacity is definitely going to be overcrowded for about half a year. both TSMC and GF 7nm processes should be focusing on low power first, high performance second. The performance-focused node will be 7nm+. Intel is reportedly facing the same problem with 10nm - their 14nm++ is too well optimized with frequencies up to 5 GHz, 10nm will more than likely not be able to clock that high at first.
dorsetknobThis is not so Much about technology (INTEL v AMD) its more about leveraging a Stock market for Profit
Capital, not profit. AMD is in much bigger need of that, for now.
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#45
Caelestis
I should have invested a few grand into AMD when their stocks were below $ 2.:(
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#46
medi01
Intel needs to learn how to "NDA" journalists from nVidia.
There are no problems Intel has at the moment that could not have been addressed this way.

Long term Intel Fab vs TSMC&Co fabs is a different discussion.
Posted on Reply
#47
Prima.Vera
B-RealAnd btw, 9900K will not perform better in games than a 9700K-9600K for sure. May be even worse.
Sorry, but that is wrong. Just look at the CPU with the higher freq. Guess who's that? ;)
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