Friday, August 10th 2018
Goldman Sachs Upgrades Stock Ratings for AMD, Downgrades Intel to "Sell"
Goldman Sachs, citing problems with Intel's 10 nm manufacturing process delivery - which was supposed to be available in the market for years now - has reduced the blue giant's stock rating. Previously at a "neutral" stance - already downgraded in the face of Intel's manufacturing woes - the stock is now at a "Sell" level. Even though Intel is still outperforming the S&P 500's 6.7 percent return with their (current) 8.6 percent this year through Thursday, the outlook isn't good for the company.
As to AMD, Goldman Sachs has a much more positive outlook, moving the company's shares from the "sell" rating it was in to a "neutral" stance. Citing belief in increased server and consumer market penetration with AMD's products in the next two years: AMD's server chip market share will rise to 5.1 percent in 2019 and increase to 9.4 percent in 2020 from an estimated 2.2 percent this year.
AMD's stock was - and likely still is - terribly undervalued for the company's IP and expertise - the underdog terminology has served to put the company's outlook in a much more negative view than it needed to be - this still is the only second company that's capable of designing x86 chips, and let's not forget how it's been delivering on that front in no shy means in the last two years. Owing to that same undervaluation, though, AMD's stock has risen 85.8 percent this year through Thursday versus the S&P 500's 6.7 percent return. The chip stock's performance ranks as the second-best return in the S&P 500 this year.
Sources:
CNBC Intel, CNBC AMD
"We see Intel's struggles with 10 nm process technology having ramifications in terms of its competitive position - across a broad set of products. While the 10nm push is well-publicized at this point, we believe Intel's manufacturing issues could potentially be deeper-rooted than what most think and could have a sustained impact on market share and/or spending levels as Intel competes with a growing/stronger TSMC eco-system."
Goldman Sachs Analyst Toshiya Hari
"We find it increasingly harder to argue our prior bear thesis - even following the recent stock price move - given Intel's struggles with 10nm process technology. The delay in Intel's new products will allow AMD to gain share in not only client (i.e. desktop PC, notebook PC) CPUs, but also in the lucrative server CPU market."
Goldman Sachs Analyst Toshiya Hari
47 Comments on Goldman Sachs Upgrades Stock Ratings for AMD, Downgrades Intel to "Sell"
TSMC will be producing 5nm by 2020 with a new fab. Their also looking at 3nm by 2023.
Intel has to keep pace or start transitioning to a fabless model
Simply put, AMD found a sweet spot and exploited it and it's going to take Intel time shift towards a different (MCM,) design because you know it's going to happen. When push comes to shove, what's important are yields and AMD has plowed ahead on that front. I honestly think MCM is the future and that's the wind behind AMD's sails right now.
The silver lining for Intel is tech communties love underdogs, so when AMD becomes the big bad wolf they no doubt will get all the love and fight back against the evil Dr Sue.... sorry Lisa Lu.
Intel's 10nm is likely similar to TSMC etc at 7nm. Meanwhile Intels fabrication will likely still be slightly better since its tailored to their own designs.
Finfet and other design aspects has kinda made the 14 / 10 / 7 nm node aspect moot since it is kind of a lie at this point. Its smaller yes but not in the way the average user would think.
That said Intel 10nm will likely = TSMC etc at 7nm. Both will likely be available on a similar time table. Still it does mean Intel is no longer ahead and therefore has actual competition again.
Not to mention the elephant in the room: the amount of chips suddenly required from TSMC / GLOFLOW would potentially put quite a strain on capacity from both foundries.
1) Intel is working on discreet GPUs but we don't know to what end.
2) Intel knew Moore's Law was falling apart all of the way back in 2014. I don't believe their myopic enough to have not put contingency plans in place if 10 nm wasn't working. Four years later, those contingency plans could easily be bearing fruit behind closed doors.
3) Intel has all kinds of prototype working going on in elastic computing (neural, AI, deep learning, etc.).
Intel may be down but it definitely isn't out.
AMD needed a breather to get their Radeon house in order and it looks like they have one. I hope they don't squander it.
Fab 42 was repurposed to 7nm and isnt going to come online until 2021 "if" its on schedule. TSMC is scheduled for 5nm in 2020. The perception is going to be there not only now at 10nm but going foward.
GTX 1070 is not overkill at 1080p like so many claim, if you like high refresh that is, which most of us here do these days.
www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/7191-iedm-2017-intel-versus-globalfoundries-leading-edge.html
As long as it does what it needs to do, and it does so with decent wattage and performance, I don't care how many nm it is.