The PC market gathered momentum in Q2 2024, with worldwide shipments of desktops and notebooks up 3.4% year-on-year, reaching 62.8 million units. Shipments of notebooks (including mobile workstations) hit 50 million units, growing 4%. Desktops (including desktop workstations), which constitute 20% of the total PC market, experienced a slight 1% growth, totaling 12.8 million units. The stage is now set for accelerated growth as the refresh cycle driven by the Windows 11 transition and AI PC adoption ramps up over the next four quarters.

"The PC industry is going from strength to strength with a third consecutive quarter of growth," said Ishan Dutt, Principal Analyst at Canalys. "The market turnaround is coinciding with exciting announcements from vendors and chipset manufacturers as their AI PC roadmaps transition from promise to reality. The quarter culminated with the launch of the first Copilot+ PCs powered by Snapdragon processors and more clarity around Apple's AI strategy with the announcement of the Apple Intelligence suite of features for Mac, iPad and iPhone. Beyond these innovations, the market will start to benefit even more from its biggest tailwind - a ramp-up in PC demand driven by the Windows 11 refresh cycle. The vast majority of channel partners surveyed by Canalys in June indicated that Windows 10 end-of-life is likely to impact customer refresh plans most in either the second half of 2024 or the first half of 2025, suggesting that shipment growth will only gather steam in upcoming quarters."

The recent launch of Copilot+ PCs, a collaboration between Microsoft and Qualcomm, has taken an unexpected turn in the market. While these devices were promoted for their artificial intelligence capabilities, a Bloomberg report reveals that consumers are primarily drawn to them for their impressive battery life. The Snapdragon X-powered Copilot+ PCs have made a significant impact, securing 20% of global PC sales during their launch week. However, industry analyst Avi Greengart points out that the extended battery life, not the AI features, is driving these sales. Microsoft introduced three AI-powered features exclusive to these PCs: Cocreator, Windows Studio Effects, and Live Captions with Translation. Despite these innovations, many users find these features non-essential for daily use. The delay of the anticipated Recall feature due to privacy concerns has further dampened enthusiasm for the AI aspects of these devices.

The slow reception of on-device AI capabilities extends beyond consumer preferences to the software industry. Major companies like Adobe, Salesforce, and SentinelOne declined Microsoft's request to optimize their apps for the new hardware, citing resource constraints and the limited market share of AI-capable PCs. Gregor Steward, SentinelOne's VP for AI, suggests it could take years before AI PCs are widespread enough to justify app optimization. Analysts project that by 2028, only 40% of new computers will be AI-capable. Despite these challenges, Qualcomm remains optimistic about the future of AI PCs. While the concept may currently be more on the marketing side, the introduction of Arm-based Windows laptops offers a welcome alternative to the Intel-AMD duopoly. As the technology evolves and adoption increases, on-device AI features may become more prevalent and useful. The imminent arrival of AMD Ryzen AI 300 series and Intel Lunar Lake chips promises to expand the Copilot+ PC space further. For now, however, it appears that superior battery life remains the primary selling point for consumers.

PC (excluding tablets) shipments to the United States grew 5% year-on-year to 14.8 million units in Q1 2024. The consumer and SMB segments were the key growth drivers, both witnessing shipment increases above 9% year-on-year in the first quarter. With a strong start to the year, the market is now poised for a healthy recovery trajectory amid the ongoing Windows refresh cycle. Total PC shipments to the US are expected to hit 69 million units in 2024 before growing another 8% to 75 million units in 2025.

For the third consecutive quarter, the consumer segment showed the best performance in the US market. "Continued discounting after the holiday season boosted consumer demand for PCs into the start of 2024," said Greg Davis, Analyst at Canalys. "However, the first quarter also saw an uptick in commercial sector performance. Shipment growth in small and medium businesses indicates that the anticipated refresh brought by the Windows 10 end-of-life is underway. With enterprise customers set to follow suit, the near-term outlook for the market remains highly positive."

The PC (desktops, notebooks, and workstations) market in Mainland China is forecast to contract by 1% in 2024 according to the latest Canalys data. The first quarter of the year already saw a sharp decline, with shipments down 12%, in contrast to the global market which returned to growth. Desktop shipments are expected to perform well in 2024, growing 10% annually as they benefit from commercial sector refresh demand, especially from large state-held enterprises and local governments. Notebook shipments are set to drop 5%, as demand from consumers and the private sector is anticipated to remain cautious on short-term expenditure such as PCs.

China's PC market trajectory is diverging from global trends in its recovery journey. In Q1 2024, the commercial sector bore the brunt of the market downturn, undergoing a 19% decline due to weak IT spending by large enterprises. The decline in consumer shipments was milder, with shipments dropping 8%. However, despite the muted performance in 2024, significant local developments point to a stronger market in 2025, in which PC shipments are expected to grow 12%.

Global PC shipments grew around 3% YoY in Q1 2024 after eight consecutive quarters of declines due to demand slowdown and inventory correction, according to the latest data from Counterpoint Research. The shipment growth in Q1 2024 came on a relatively low base in Q1 2023. The coming quarters of 2024 will see sequential shipment growth, resulting in 3% YoY growth for the full year, largely driven by AI PC momentum, shipment recovery across different sectors, and a fresh replacement cycle.

Lenovo's PC shipments were up 8% in Q1 2024 off an easy comparison from last year. The brand managed to reclaim its 24% share in the market, compared to 23% in Q1 2023. HP and Dell, with market shares of 21% and 16% respectively, remained flattish, waiting for North America to drive shipment growth in the coming quarters. Apple's shipment performance was also resilient, with the 2% growth mainly supported by M3 base models.

Canalys anticipates that China's PC (excluding tablets) market will rebound to 3% growth in 2024 and 10% growth in 2025, primarily fueled by refresh demand from the commercial sector. The tablet market is expected to grow by 4% in both 2024 and 2025, benefiting from increasing penetration as digitalization deepens.

"2024 is expected to bring modest relief to a struggling PC market in China, but a challenging environment will remain," said Canalys Analyst Emma Xu. "Ongoing economic structural adjustments are a key priority as the government seeks new avenues for economic growth, with a core focus on technology-driven innovation. AI emerged as a central theme during the latest 'Two Sessions' in China, with enthusiasm for AI spanning commercial entities and government initiatives aimed at establishing a domestic AI ecosystem across industries. Significant opportunities for the PC industry are set to arise from this commercial push, especially as it coincides with the upcoming device refresh and the emergence of AI-capable PCs."

Canalys' latest forecast predicts that an estimated 48 million AI-capable PCs will ship worldwide in 2024, representing 18% of total PC shipments. But this is just the start of a major market transition, with AI-capable PC shipments projected to surpass 100 million in 2025, 40% of all PC shipments. In 2028, Canalys expects vendors to ship 205 million AI-capable PCs, representing a staggering compound annual growth rate of 44% between 2024 and 2028.

These PCs, integrating dedicated AI accelerators, such as Neural Processing Units (NPUs), will unlock new capabilities for productivity, personalization and power efficiency, disrupting the PC market and delivering significant value gains to vendors and their partners.

Serkan Toto, CEO of Tokyo-based games consultancy Kantan Games was interviewed by CNBC earlier this week—he was invited on-air to provide expert commentary on Sony's freshly revised sales and revenue forecast for PlayStation 5 products. He believes that great forward momentum is best achieved with refreshed hardware, and a well timed launch coinciding with the release of AAA/blockbuster games titles. Last autumn's rollout of slimmer PlayStation 5 consoles was not particularly exciting—with no major bump up in specs or attractive pricing. The development of an inevitable "Pro" variant has circulated around rumor mills for more than a year.

Sony Computer Entertainment (SCE) and AMD are believed to co-operating on a very potent hardware redesign—reports from late last year posited that a semi-custom "Viola" SoC is in the pipeline. A more expensive RDNA 3-upgraded refresh could attract an additional segment of hardcore gamers, but another industry analyst reckons that Sony is unlikely to implement a standard model price cut later this year (based on past trends). George Jijiashvili, senior principal analyst at Omdia, stated: "A scenario where Sony launches a PS5 Pro, but still experiences declining year-on-year hardware sales is very much within the realms of possibility." Serkan Toto (of Kantan Games consultancy) expressed a more optimistic view: "There seems to be a broad consensus in the game industry that Sony is indeed preparing a launch of a PS5 Pro in the second half of 2024...And Sony will want to make sure to have a great piece of hardware ready when GTA VI hits in 2025, a launch that will be a shot in the arm for the entire gaming industry."

Worldwide semiconductor revenue in 2023 totaled $533 billion, a decrease of 11.1% from 2022, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

"While the cyclicality in the semiconductor industry was present again in 2023, the market suffered a difficult year with memory revenue recording one of its worst declines in history," said Alan Priestley, VP Analyst at Gartner. "The underperforming market also negatively impacted several semiconductor vendors. Only 9 of the top 25 semiconductor vendors posted revenue growth in 2023, with 10 experiencing double-digit declines."

The combined semiconductor revenue of the top 25 semiconductor vendors declined 14.1% in 2023, accounting for 74.4% of the market, down from 77.2% in 2022.

According to the latest Canalys forecasts, worldwide PC shipments are on the verge of recovery following seven consecutive quarters of decline. The market is expected to return to growth of 5% in Q4 2023, boosted by a strong holiday season and an improving macroeconomic environment. Looking ahead, full-year 2024 shipments are forecast to hit 267 million units, landing 8% higher than in 2023, helped by tailwinds including the Windows refresh cycle and emergence of AI-capable and Arm-based devices.

"The global PC market is on a recovery path and set to return to 2019 shipment levels by next year," said Canalys Analyst Ben Yeh. "The impact of AI on the PC industry will be profound, with leading players across OEMs, processor manufacturers, and operating system providers focused on delivering new AI-capable models in 2024. These initiatives will bolster refresh demand, particularly in the commercial sector. The total shipment share of AI-capable PCs is expected to be about 19% in 2024. This accounts for all M-series Mac products alongside the nascent offerings expected in the Windows ecosystem. However, as more compelling use-cases emerge and AI functionality becomes an expected feature, Canalys anticipates a fast ramp up in the development and adoption of AI-capable PCs."

Pierre Ferragu, the Global Technology Infrastructure chief at New Street Research, has predicted a very positive 2025 financial outcome for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC). A global slowdown in consumer purchasing of personal computers and smartphones has affected a number of companies including the likes of NVIDIA and AMD—their financial reports have projected a 10% annual revenue drop for 2023. TSMC has similarly forecast that its full year revenue for 2023 will settle at $68.31 billion, after an approximate 10% fall. Ferragu did not contest these figures—via his team's analysis—TSMC is expected to pull in $68 billion in net sales for this financial year.

The rumor mill has TSMC revising its revenue guidance for a third time this year—but company leadership has denied that this will occur. New Street Research estimates that conditions will improve next year, with an uptick in client orders placed at TSMC's foundries. Ferragu reckons that TSMC could hit an all-time revenue high of $100 billion by 2025. His hunch is based on the upcoming spending habits of VIP foundry patrons encompassing: "a bottom-up perspective, looking at how TSMC's top customers, which we all know very well, will contribute to such growth." The Taiwanese foundry's order books are reported to be filling up for next year, with Apple and NVIDIA seizing the moment to stand firmly at the front of the 3 nm process queue.

The latest Canalys data reveals that PC shipments (desktops, notebooks and workstations) in the US declined just 6% year-on-year to 18.2 million units in Q2 2023, marking a significant improvement compared to earlier quarters this year. Notebook (including mobile workstations) shipments were down 4% to 15.2 million units, bolstered by the return of Chromebook demand in the education sector. Desktops (including desktop workstations) suffered a steeper decline, with shipments falling 12% to 3.0 million units. The US tablet market faced a similarly modest decline, with shipments down 5% to 10.3 million units.

"Despite undergoing another year-on-year decline, the US PC market showed promising signs of improvement in the second quarter," said Ishan Dutt, Principal Analyst at Canalys. "With the buildup of channel inventories now largely cleared, pockets of demand strength are now being reflected in vendors' sell-in shipment performance. A key area that helped drive volumes was the return of demand from education institutions, backed by the latest wave of federal funding, ahead of a licensing cost increase for ChromeOS. This helped propel Chromebook shipments to 4.7 million units, the highest level since peak deployments during the first half of 2021."

Industry analysts have been busy with reviews of the PlayStation VR2 headset's launch sales figures, and have concluded that the numbers are a big disappointment according to findings published in a Bloomberg article. The research firm IDC is predicting that the PS VR2 is unlikely to break above 270,000 unit sales - timed from its launch this year on February 22 to the end of March. This is a substantial shortfall when lined up against the expected sales figures - Sony was reported to have an estimate of 2 million units sold going into the next financial year, but it was cutback to 1.5 million in the recent past. Francisco Jeronimo, IDC's Vice President of data and analytics cites a number of factors for the sluggish start: "Consumers around the world are facing rising costs of living, rising interest rates and rising layoffs - VR headsets are not top of mind for most consumers under the current economic climate."

Gamers were surprised by the higher than expected pricing for the PlayStation VR2 headset - at an MSRP of $550 it exceeds the asking price of the PlayStation 5 - and the home console is a necessary component in hosting the VR2's functionality. The virtual reality device has been a critical darling, although reviewers have been quick to question the price tag. It has been praised for an impressive specification and feature set, which includes dual 2,000 x 2,040 OLED displays, class leading eye-tracking tech and innovative Move wand controllers. The analysts share similar views about the high MSRP - Jeronimo predicts that Sony will need to take drastic action in order to right its sales ship: "I suspect a price cut on the PS VR2 will be needed to avoid a complete disaster of their new product." A price cut would perhaps appeal to a more mainstream buyer, coupled with the PlayStation VR2 being part of an ultra familiar gaming brand, but VR headset manufacturers as a whole are experiencing a slowdown in sales. Gamers were slow to adopt the first iteration of Sony's virtual headset, and that pattern appears to be repeating for the new model.

The India traditional PC market (inclusive of desktops, notebooks, and workstations) continued its growth momentum despite ongoing supply and logistical challenges. The traditional PC shipments witnessed a 30% year-over-year (YoY) growth in 3Q21 (Jul-Sep), marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth in India, according to new data from the International Data Corporation 's (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. A total of 4.5 million PCs were shipped during the quarter, making it India's biggest-ever single quarter. To put this in perspective, it is bigger than the total yearly consumer shipments in 2019, a year before the pandemic hit us. As a result, many brands also reported their biggest quarter of PC shipments.

Notebook PCs continue to dominate the overall category with more than 80% share. Enterprise and consumer demand helped the Notebook category to reach over 3 million units for the first time, and the desktop category also continued its upward momentum as it grew by 30.5% YoY in 3Q21.

Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, has released its newest gaming market study regarding the PC Gaming Hardware Market, which consists of personal computers, upgrades, and peripherals used for gaming. The PC Gaming Hardware market both flourished and suffered during the past year. It flourished financially, however not in a way most would hope. Because of supply problems, a large portion of the consumer spend did not make it back to manufacturers, with an abnormal amount going to resellers who charged inordinately high prices for PC components.

This phenomenon leads to how it suffered. Gamers with average budgets could not always get what they needed, and new entrants sometimes put off, or even worse, abandoned the platform or hobby adoption. New entrants are very important to the long-term health of any gaming platform. A stark warning to hardware companies in the PC Gaming space that long-term growth is dependent on having products available and priced within reach of mass-market consumers. Also, a warning that total dependency on imported products and Just-In-Time inventory systems can be a weakness during market anomalies like the COVID pandemic.

The fingernail-size Intel chip with Foveros technology is a first-of-its kind. With Foveros, processors are built in a totally new way: not with the various IPs spread out flat in two dimensions, but with them stacked in three dimensions. Think of a chip designed as a layer cake (a 1-millimeter-thick layer cake) versus a chip with a more-traditional pancake-like design. Intel's Foveros advanced packaging technology allows Intel to "mix and match" technology IP blocks with various memory and I/O elements - all in a small physical package for significantly reduced board size. The first product designed this way is "Lakefield," the Intel Core processor with Intel hybrid technology.

Industry analyst firm The Linley Group recently named Intel's Foveros 3D-stacking technology as "Best Technology" in its 2019 Analysts' Choice Awards. "Our awards program not only recognizes excellence in chip design and innovation, but also acknowledges the products that our analysts believe will have an impact on future designs," said Linley Gwennap, of The Linley Group.

Intel's in-house sub-10 nanometer silicon fabrication dreams seem more distant by the day. Raymond James analyst Chris Caso, in an interview with CNBC stated that Intel's 10 nm process development could set the company back by at least 5 years behind TSMC. In its most recent financial results call, Intel revised its 10 nm outlook to reflect that the first 10 nm processors could only come out by the end of 2019. "Intel's biggest strategic problem is their delay on 10nm production - we don't expect a 10nm server chip from Intel for two years," analyst Chris Caso said in a note to clients Tuesday. "10nm delays create a window for competitors, and the window may never again close."

By that time, Intel will have missed several competitive milestones behind TSMC, which is in final stages of quantitatively rolling out its 7 nm process. Caso predicts that by the time Intel goes sub-10 nm (7 nm or something in that nanoscopic ballpark), TSMC and Samsung could each be readying their 5 nm or 3 nm process roll-outs. A Rosenblatt Securities report that came out late-August was even more gloomy about the situation at Intel foundry. It predicted that foundry delays could set the company back "5, 6, or even 7" years behind rivals. Intel is already beginning offload some of its 14 nm manufacturing to TSMC. Meanwhile, AMD is reportedly planning to entirely rely on TSMC to make its future generations of "Zen" processors.

Arcturus is the fourth brightest star in the night sky, and could be the a new GPU architecture by AMD succeeding "Navi," according to a Phoronix report. The codename of Navi-successor has long eluded AMD's roadmap slides. The name "Arcturis" surfaced on Phoronix community forums, from a post by an AMD Linux liaison who is a member there. The codename is also supported by the fact that AMD is naming its GPU architectures after the brightest stars in the sky (albeit in a descending order of their brightness). Polaris is the brightest, followed by Vega, Navi, and Arcturus.

AMD last referenced the Navi-successor on a roadmap slide during its 2017 Financial Analyst Day presentation by Mark Papermaster. That slide mentioned "Vega" to be built on two silicon fabrication processes, 14 nm and "14 nm+." We know now that AMD intends to build a better-endowed "Vega" chip on 7 nm, which could be the world's first 7 nm GPU. "Navi" is slated to be built on 7 nm as the process becomes more prevalent in the industry. The same slide mentions Navi-successor as being built on "7 nm+," which going by convention, could refer to an even more advanced process than 7 nm. Unfortunately, even in 2017, when the industry was a touch more optimistic about 7 nm, AMD expected the Navi-successor to only come out by 2020. We're not holding our breath.

Goldman Sachs, citing problems with Intel's 10 nm manufacturing process delivery - which was supposed to be available in the market for years now - has reduced the blue giant's stock rating. Previously at a "neutral" stance - already downgraded in the face of Intel's manufacturing woes - the stock is now at a "Sell" level. Even though Intel is still outperforming the S&P 500's 6.7 percent return with their (current) 8.6 percent this year through Thursday, the outlook isn't good for the company.

"We see Intel's struggles with 10 nm process technology having ramifications in terms of its competitive position - across a broad set of products. While the 10nm push is well-publicized at this point, we believe Intel's manufacturing issues could potentially be deeper-rooted than what most think and could have a sustained impact on market share and/or spending levels as Intel competes with a growing/stronger TSMC eco-system."

Goldman Sachs Analyst Toshiya Hari