Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[EarthDog]

When I calculate for whole of the US, that number doesn't change much because of the population of the nation.

Respectfully, I don't much care for everyone's napkin numbers. The thing is, the only FACTS we have is what you've provided in the first post... # of known cases to deaths. We do not know asymptomatic people, etc. No idea of the total number versus deaths. We have deaths and confirmed cases... which that percent will go up quite a bit before it drops down.

While there are plenty of variables which affect that number, such as age, part of the country, hospital status, etc.... we know that as a whole, the rate is 4%. It could be a lot lower if you live in bumblejunk USA where few cases are, or it could be exponentially higher, say if you live in NYC. So, yay for you... but its hard to follow everyone's BS napkin math... explanations come out later........'oh no, I meant like, if you didn't drink bathwater as a kid and only heard of, but never participated in, the hokie pokie, lol. Forums and people's communication skills... good times.

Honestly, watching people drone on cluelessly has just about fried my patience over it all.

 

[Regeneration]

Assuming he's in his late 30s, this is when the first body degradation occurs, when every bump causes an injury. There is 13% chance (10-15 to be accurate) of developing some kind of complication with COVID-19. Respiratory most likely. If it won't kill him, the ER bill will - if he doesn't have health insurance. Even if you recover, that kind of complication can mess you up pretty good.

 

[R-T-B]

Its an economical gamble, at least in part. You can't go around testing the entire population continuously.

South Korea pretty much is. They literally are using infrared thermometers to spot check people, last i heard.

Granted, I fact verified that as much as it sounds.

Its clear you don't have kids

Ah. KIds. The other pandemic.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Respectfully, I don't much care for everyone's napkin numbers.

Professionally, I'm a scientist. Numbers are literally my life and I'm pretty good at it.

While there are plenty of variables which affect that number, such as age, part of the country, hospital status, etc.... we know that as a whole, the rate is 4%. It could be a lot lower if you live in bumblejunk USA where few cases are, or it could be exponentially higher, say if you live in NYC. So, yay for you... but its hard to follow everyone's BS napkin math... explanations come out later........'oh no, I meant like, if you didn't drink bathwater as a kid and only heard of, but never participated in, the hokie pokie, lol. Forums and people's communication skills... good times.

Ah, but you are not accounting for ratio of population to actual mortality rate. Take NYC, population versus mortality is not an alarming number and certainly not exponential(this word keeps getting used way out of context). Not even China's number's(if correct) are alarming. Only Italy, Iran and Spain are alarming. Everywhere else is worrisome but not any more serious than the flu.

Assuming he's in his late 30s, this is when the first body degradation occurs, when every bump causes an injury. There is 13% chance (10-15 to be accurate) of developing some kind of complication with COVID-19. Respiratory most likely. If it won't kill him, the ER bill will - if he doesn't have health insurance. Even if you recover, that kind of complication can mess you up pretty good.

First, I'm in my 40's, but am healthy. I've already been tested because I work in a lab that has certain requirements. The doctors gave me a list of information to be aware of and followed up with saying that I am "very low risk" of hospitalization and/or death.

Second, having answered that, you're making a lot of assumptions and nonsense statements. That kind of thing belongs in the thread located in the lounge. Please take them there. This thread is intended for posting factual information and comments based on factual info.

 

[EarthDog]

Ah, but you are not accounting for ratio of population to actual mortality rate. Take NYC, population versus mortality is not an alarming number and certainly not exponential(this word keeps getting used way out of context). Not even China's number's(if correct) are alarming. Only Italy, Iran and Spain are alarming. Everywhere else is worrisome but not any more serious than the flu.

Correct, I'm not counting chickens before they hatch... and even acknowledged such. We have no idea how many asymptomatic cases are out there and overall deaths... so napkin math... speculation.

Not even China's number's(if correct) are alarming. Only Italy, Iran and Spain are alarming. Everywhere else is worrisome but not any more serious than the flu.

Are you ignoring your own data? You say only italy, iran, and spain are alarming, yet, the US is trending to be worse than italy... how is that not alarming to you, but italy is?

Right now, the number of cases are growing exponentially (growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size). If the US flu's death rate rate is ~0.1% and we're at 4.3% overall for this... 4.3% is what, 43x more than 0.1%, yes?

 

[Vayra86]

Correct, I'm not counting chickens before they hatch... and even acknowledged such. We have no idea how many asymptomatic cases are out there and overall deaths... so napkin math... speculation.

Are you ignoring your own data? You say only italy, iran, and spain are alarming, yet, the US is trending to be worse than italy... how is that not alarming to you, but italy is?

Right now, the number of cases are growing exponentially (growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size). If the US flu's death rate rate is ~0.1% and we're at 4.3% overall for this... 4.3% is what, 43x more than 0.1%, yes?

He's a scientist man, he knows best... better than all the virologists in numerous countries apparently. Don't worry its just a phase. Most countries / people have gone through it, not realizing what exponential rate of infection truly means and how it hits a society. Helicopter money... Its the last you need when medical help is simply just not going to be available. You need IC? Sorry, no beds, and you're not important enough. Or: yes, you can get a bed, but when you get driven in you see somebody else get driven out, that's a life lost to save yours. That's gonna be the message. But, at least its no worse than flu. Right?

Its typical, and I recognize it, and every country that is further into this is saying: look, you have no idea. So Lex: you have no idea, be humble.

Some news from NL.
Partial lockdown of society lengthened to June 1st. Existing measures are now reinforced with fines and strict policing. We are allowed to go out for bare necessities and everything else is strongly discouraged except if you can go to work without infection risk, but if you can stay at home you're supposed to. So basically the wheels keep turning over here, on skeleton crews. I think its a good series of measures and hopefully effective enough. It also gives us the best deck of cards post-crisis, sectors and jobs are hopefully going to remain intact.

 

[Regeneration]

First, I'm in my 40's, but am healthy. I've already been tested because I work in a lab that has certain requirements. The doctors gave me a list of information to be aware of and followed up with saying that I am "very low risk" of hospitalization and/or death.

10-15 percent is considered low-risk. Within the age range, 1 out of 10 will develop some kind of a complication.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Are you ignoring your own data?

Not at all, see below...

the US is trending to be worse than italy

No, it isn't.

how is that not alarming to you?

See below..

the US is trending to be worse than italy

Not when you factor the averages. The US population is much higher than Italy and yet our mortality is a small fraction of theirs. Italy has a population of approx 60,000,000 with a death toll of 6000. The Us has a population of approx 320,000,000 with a death toll of 600(those number current as of the moment of this post). Italy's numbers are nowhere near what I would call alarming, but some would and there is some merit to that viewpoint. The US numbers are alarming only to the panicky and uninformed.

 

[Vayra86]

Not when you factor the averages. The US population is much higher than Italy and yet our mortality is a small fraction of theirs. Italy has a population of approx 60,000,000 with a death toll of 6000. The Us has a population of approx 320,000,000 with a death toll of 600(those number current as of the moment of this post). Italy's numbers are nowhere near what I would call alarming, but some would and there is some merit to that viewpoint. The US numbers are alarming only to the panicky and uninformed.

The problem in the US is going to be in the urban areas, I think in the countryside its going to be pretty reasonable to control. The distances are going to work in your favor. But in the cities... expect healthcare systems to topple given the late response. Even if the death toll is low now.

In that sense it really is not easy to compare numbers. Italy is also pretty densely populated and the distances between hospitals are easier... but they just have all of them overcrowded. What you can expect in US cities is mini Italy a few dozen times over. Not a pretty sight and its going to put a massive strain on things. What you need to consider with those numbers is the calculation of 'IC capacity in urban area X versus population in urban area X, versus the typical percent of the population that tends to get infected. You're quickly going to be talking about a few hundred thousand of them, now take the typical 15-18% with severe symptoms and in need of IC bed and respiratory aid...

In the Netherlands we had the biggest outbreak in a southern province, Brabant. The hospitals there got filled to (expanded!) capacity within a week, and IC patients were moved to hospitals up north to restore the balance. Moving IC patients is no easy matter... But a drive from top to bottom over here takes you only 3 hours. Now note, we are still 'in control'... but death toll still rises even if the curve seems to start slowing a little bit.

Exactly. Here in Louisiana we the highest growth rate, and is dutifully following the same rise as Italy. I’d say that is pretty bad.

Louisiana goes on lockdown, has fastest growth of COVID-19 worldwide

As long as coronavirus continues to run rampant through the country, there will be no sports for the forseeable future.

lsutigerswire.usatoday.com

There you go example one.

 

[rtwjunkie]

You say only italy, iran, and spain are alarming, yet, the US is trending to be worse than italy... how is that not alarming to you, but italy is?

Exactly. Here in Louisiana we have the highest growth rate, and is dutifully following the same rise as Italy. I’d say that is pretty bad.

Louisiana goes on lockdown, has fastest growth of COVID-19 worldwide

As long as coronavirus continues to run rampant through the country, there will be no sports for the forseeable future.

lsutigerswire.usatoday.com

 

[lexluthermiester]

The problem in the US is going to be in the urban areas, I think in the countryside its going to be pretty reasonable to control.

That remains to be seen.

In that sense it really is not easy to compare numbers.

But that is a subjective point of view. I am looking only at the raw numbers and how they are evolving, example below...

Exactly. Here in Louisiana we have the highest growth rate, and is dutifully following the same rise as Italy. I’d say that is pretty bad.

Louisiana goes on lockdown, has fastest growth of COVID-19 worldwide

As long as coronavirus continues to run rampant through the country, there will be no sports for the forseeable future.

lsutigerswire.usatoday.com

Please understand I mean no offense or insensitivity and we appreciate your posts. Louisiana's population is approx 4,900,000. According to your article, there are less than 1,000 cases and only 20 deaths statewide. Those numbers are not alarming. They are downright paltry when you compare them to other illnesses that produce deaths in your state.

New York, California and Washington all have higher numbers, but even those numbers do not spell out the need to shut down the nation or world ending disaster. People and governments are greatly over-reacting.

FYI, the tracker at Johns Hopkins now has much more fine-grained details to the numbers, listed by County. Link below and in the OP;

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

 

[Vayra86]

That remains to be seen.

But that is a subjective point of view. I am looking only at the raw numbers and how they are evolving, example below...

Please understand I mean no offense or insensitivity and we appreciate your posts. Louisiana's population is approx 4,900,000. According to your article, there are less than 1,000 cases and only 20 deaths statewide. Those numbers are not alarming. They are downright paltry when you compare them to other illnesses that produce deaths in your state.

New York, California and Washington all have higher numbers, but even those numbers do not spell out the need to shut down the nation or world ending disaster. People and governments are greatly over-reacting.

Well all I can say is, I hope you're gonna be right, but strongly doubt it. This virus doesn't discriminate. Using your own logic: why would the US be any different than countries in the EU? I see no real reasons for it, but I do see reasons for it to turn out worse.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Time will tell...

 

[Tomgang]

A little update from Denmark. Infected are now up to 1450 where 254 are hospitalized and 40 are in respirator with critical symptoms and unfortunately 24 has now passed away.

Danish government has now decided to ramp up tests for COVID-19. A very generous rich man from China has donated a lot of mask and other health care things to Denmark's health care system and we are very grateful for his help as we where about to run out.

Danish government has said today they expect the virus to hit it's max around the end of April and be under control by start of June. I hope as no one know for sure how this will work out.

Only thing is for sure, after this virus we can all deal with a lot of economic mayhem. Lost jobs, companies going bankruptcy and a lot af government dedt. I just joined the unemployment people today, Yeah thank you for that dam virus

 

[rtwjunkie]

That remains to be seen.

But that is a subjective point of view. I am looking only at the raw numbers and how they are evolving, example below...

Please understand I mean no offense or insensitivity and we appreciate your posts. Louisiana's population is approx 4,900,000. According to your article, there are less than 1,000 cases and only 20 deaths statewide. Those numbers are not alarming. They are downright paltry when you compare them to other illnesses that produce deaths in your state.

New York, California and Washington all have higher numbers, but even those numbers do not spell out the need to shut down the nation or world ending disaster. People and governments are greatly over-reacting.

FYI, the tracker at Johns Hopkins now has much more fine-grained details to the numbers, listed by County. Link below and in the OP;

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

It’s not total numbers. It is per capita and growth rate. NY may have the sheer numbers, but they don’t have the rapid growth rate we do. That is fact. And it’s well over 1,000 cases today (1,172 to be exact and 34 deaths).

Don’t misunderstand my response. I’m not mad. I do think apocalypse alarmists are wrong, but I also feel that those who try to minimize this tragedy are going to cause more deaths because they literally think this is nothing at all.

It is better to be fully prepared for war, than to gullibly believe the hostile neighbor won’t surprise attack you. Hopefully you get the analogy.

How Louisiana Became Home To The Fastest Growing Rate Of The Coronavirus In The World

It is unclear how many Black people in the state have tested positive.

www.bet.com

https://gov.louisiana.gov/assets/docs/covid/govCV19Brief-2.pdf

The graphs use the previous day’s data but you get the idea. I pulled the University link from the article

 

[lexluthermiester]

It is better to be fully prepared for war, than to gullibly believe the hostile neighbor won’t surprise attack you. Hopefully you get the analogy.

And of course I agree with you.

 

[the54thvoid]

UK 'lockdown' announced for 3 weeks. All to reduce cases to minimise the admissions to hospital. It's not about preventing deaths from the virus, it's about stopping the medical services being overwhelmed.

 

[lexluthermiester]

UK 'lockdown' announced for 3 weeks. All to reduce cases to minimise the admissions to hospital. It's not about preventing deaths from the virus, it's about stopping the medical services being overwhelmed.

For reference ATM, the UK's numbers are as follows;
Population(England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)
67,000,000 Approx

Current cases
5,912

Fatalities
336

Recovered
140

My opinion, you folks are doing alright.

 

[the54thvoid]

For reference ATM, the UK's numbers are as follows;
Population(England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)
67,000,000 Approx

Current cases
5,912

Fatalities
336

Recovered
140

My opinion, you folks are doing alright.

The Govt followed the advice of statisticians and medical experts. This is to pre-empt any further acceleration of cases. The really sad thing is (and funny, frankly, considering I'm Scottish) is that I'm worried about my beer intake... my first thought was, 'Can I still buy beer from the beer shop?'

 

[phanbuey]

The Govt followed the advice of statisticians and medical experts. This is to pre-empt any further acceleration of cases. The really sad thing is (and funny, frankly, considering I'm Scottish) is that I'm worried about my beer intake... my first thought was, 'Can I still buy beer from the beer shop?'

Apparently our liquor stores fall under the 'essential' category here (and in NY if my relatives are to be believed)

Cant buy toilet paper, but can still get beer.

 

[Ferrum Master]

Cant buy toilet paper, but can still get beer.

I am more concerned Kenny Rogers kicking the bucket this weekend tho... Damn... Driver 2... it is a part of my childhood.

Good music, remains good music... dare someone to say something else about this tune

 

[EarthDog]

Well all I can say is, I hope you're gonna be right, but strongly doubt it. This virus doesn't discriminate. Using your own logic: why would the US be any different than countries in the EU? I see no real reasons for it, but I do see reasons for it to turn out worse.

lol, you'd think it's a rorschach test, not math!

Yeah, CURRENTLY basing opinion on total population and current deaths paints an inaccurate picture to me. Only after this is in significant decline is that relevant. That said, knowing in the end this will end up lower per capita is helpful, however that doesnt mean there isnt a precipitous rise before that time. In other words basing how severe this will be by using end-game numbers isn't an accurate way to predict what happens between now and then. The problem is we have no real idea how many will get infected. They say it is 2-3x more contagious than the flu... hopefully our actions of social distancing and shelter in place rules reduce that to less than flu levels. How many 10s of millions (in the US) get the flu each year (3% min, 8% avg, 11% max)? This year, 34 million.... over 20k died (CDC) in this 6 month season (we're winding down now). If we go by the government's acknowledgement of the problem, this is a week and a couple of days old (actual acknowledgement of it being an issue). If we go by 1st in the us, 2 months and a bit of change. Summer could thwart its growth and squash it...or not... or it could and come back...we just dont know. Any way you look at it, at minimum, we have several weeks, if not longer, before this is supposed to peak.

Anyway, time will tell, indeed... I'm not an alarmist (I dont think I come across as one?? If I see the words deep state or bioweapon, or tool for dems vs Republicans I'll blow my stack, lol), but feel like a real time realist with an eye on the big picture...

Edit: I forgot.. in Ohio... on lockdown...haz internet...send gpus for review, plz!

 

[lexluthermiester]

Yeah, CURRENTLY basing opinion on total population and current deaths paints an inaccurate picture to me.

ATM we don't have anything better(more accurate), unfortunately.

I'm not an alarmist (I dont think I come across as one??)

You did not.

 

[EarthDog]

ATM we don't have anything better(more accurate), unfortunately.

We do though...the exponential growth of cases....which will overwhelm the system. In NYC.. a week supposedly... deaths start their spike as more deaths come from less dense areas then too. The rate at which we are getting this versus a slowly increasing bed count that will, if experts are correct, never be enough for the initial onslaught.

Edit: great article, I came across after I posted... https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-ever-away-heres-one-094824995.html

Apparently our liquor stores fall under the 'essential' category here (and in NY if my relatives are to be believed)

Marijuana in Cali is essential too. Not sure about the other recreational states.

PS - I didnt hoard TP... I say nothing about the above...lol

 

[biffzinker]

New study suggests how long coronavirus can stay on surfaces

The COVID-19 virus can persist in the air and on surfaces for hours, if not days, according to a new study performed by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), CDC, UCLA and Princeton University.

www.ktuu.com