Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[dragontamer5788]

https://allecijfers.nl/images/nieuws/Geslacht_Corona_pati%C3%ABnten.svg

It’s only in Dutch.

maybe some ppl have those numbers for there countries?

Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov. Deaths involving COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex, age group, and jurisdiction of occurrence.

data.cdc.gov

The raw CDC Numbers suggest US Men are dying at significantly higher rates than US Women. For the 55 to 64 age group, there were 7,558 male deaths, but only 3,881 female deaths between Feb 1 and June 10th this year.

 

[HTC]

https://allecijfers.nl/images/nieuws/Geslacht_Corona_pati%C3%ABnten.svg

It’s only in Dutch.

maybe some ppl have those numbers for there countries?

Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov. Deaths involving COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex, age group, and jurisdiction of occurrence.

data.cdc.gov

The raw CDC Numbers suggest US Men are dying at significantly higher rates than US Women. For the 55 to 64 age group, there were 7,558 male deaths, but only 3,881 female deaths between Feb 1 and June 10th this year.

I don't have access to numbers of hospitalization by gender but, here in Portugal, there are a lot more women infected than men:

OTOH, the fatalities don't reflect this disparity in infected numbers:

Men die more than women from 40+ years until 79 while women die more from 80+.

 

[Tatty_Two]

https://allecijfers.nl/images/nieuws/Geslacht_Corona_pati%C3%ABnten.svg

It’s only in Dutch.

maybe some ppl have those numbers for there countries?

Yep, it's all in the Biology, many people are not aware that men at every age have a lower life expectancy than women because they have a much weaker immune system, mainly for genetic and hormone production reasons, the ability of men to combat certain diseases including viruses is significantly reduced because of these various genetic factors and it is prevalent in all mammals, the female hormone Oestrogen (estrogen) has huge immune system positives where as the male hormone Testosterone has the opposite effect, an interesting and not too long a read in the link below, I am no biologist but it seems the be mostly relating to the X and Y chromosomes...............

Why do more men die from coronavirus than women?

Is it genes, chromosomes, hormones, the immune sytem – or behaviour – that makes men more susceptible to the deadly disease?

theconversation.com

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 37336 confirmed infected --- 300 more
- 23212 recovered --- 360 more
- 1522 fatalities --- 2 more
- 353178 suspected cases --- 2121 more
- 975737 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... STILL?
- 1316 waiting for test results --- 75 more
- 30810 under watch from authorities --- 107 more
- 423 hospitalized --- 8 less
- 71 in ICU --- 2 less

Single digit daily death toll for the 11th day in a row: this never happened before.

 

[Tatty_Two]

It seems that a UK Research team from Oxford university have found an existing cheap Steroid treatment called Dexamethasone that reduces loss of life for the most serious cases of Covid-19 that require oxygen and/or a mechanical ventilator, I do recall the work they were doing and the call for patient volunteers a couple of months ago, estimates are up to a third fewer fatalities

'Major breakthrough' as UK scientists find £5 steroid cuts COVID-19 deaths

It's being rolled out to every hospital in the UK with immediate effect.

 

[dragontamer5788]

It seems that a UK Research team from Oxford university have found an existing cheap Steroid treatment called Dexamethasone that reduces loss of life for the most serious cases of Covid-19 that require oxygen and/or a mechanical ventilator, I do recall the work they were doing and the call for patient volunteers a couple of months ago, estimates are up to a third fewer fatalities

'Major breakthrough' as UK scientists find £5 steroid cuts COVID-19 deaths

It's being rolled out to every hospital in the UK with immediate effect.

Dexamethasone - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It looks like its got some serious side effects. But anything is better than death. So it makes sense to give the drug to anyone on oxygen or ventilators (those who have the highest risk of death).

Given the huge list of side effects, its no "miracle drug". But this is still good news that the death rate can be reduced by so much.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Dexamethasone - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It looks like its got some serious side effects. But anything is better than death. So it makes sense to give the drug to anyone on oxygen or ventilators (those who have the highest risk of death).

Given the huge list of side effects, its no "miracle drug". But this is still good news that the death rate can be reduced by so much.

It has a lot of side effects, most drugs do to be fair however it's been in use by millions for a number of years all over the world and the most common side effects appear to be non life threatening, this may shed some further light...…….

BNF is only available in the UK

The NICE British National Formulary (BNF) site is only available to users in the UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)

bnf.nice.org.uk

Edit: Not sure if everyone can access this link.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Now for something a bit different: I'm a fan of Hydrogen Peroxide. Unfortunately, there's a lot of quackery with regards to the good ol' H2O2 chemical (including idiots who are now drinking H2O2 for health reasons... erm... its still a poison ya know?).

It seems like the EPA is suggesting vaporized H2O2 treatments to extend the life of N95 masks. H2O2 is a poisonous chemical with a very interesting attribute: its so reactive that it naturally breaks down into the formula: 2H2O2 -> 2H2O + O2. So while its in H2O2 form, it kills bacteria, viruses, and fungus, but then an hour later it turns into H2O and O2 (just water and oxygen).

https://www.safety.duke.edu/sites/default/files/N-95_VHP-Decon-Re-Use.pdf

With that being said, H2O2 vapor is dangerous stuff. It means that the H2O2 poison is now airborne and can get into your lungs. This technique is probably unavailable to the general public, but is proof that bacterial and viruses can be killed by this chemical.

------------

I guess if anyone wants something that really kills COVID19 (and lots of other stuff too), H2O2 is a pretty good cleaning solution. Its a bit less reactive than Chlorine Bleach (which will rust iron and other materials)... but H2O2 still whitens and dissolves a lot of dyes, so you still need to be careful around furniture and stuff. Always test to make sure H2O2 won't change the color before you use it on something.

H2O2 cleaners are Oxyclean (a powder that turns into H2O2 when dissolved in Water), Lysol "Power and Free" (Lysol is typically Benzalkonium chloride or alkyldimethylbenzylammonium chloride. But "Power and Free" is the Hydrogen Peroxide based cleaner), and of course... your good ol brown container of pure Hydrogen Peroxide available for $1 at most drug stores. Lysol "Power and Free" is roughly 0.8% H2O2, so your 3% drug store H2O2 can be dilluted in a 3.5-to-1 ratio and still be an effective disinfectant or cleaner.

So yes, H2O2 has been proven to kill COVID19 and is less reactive than many other cleaning solutions. If anyone else is cleaning stuff on a regular basis, I do recommend you try it out. Be it in powder form (aka: Oxyclean) or in liquid form.

I've always been cleaning with 3% H2O2 or various H2O2 cleaners in various forms. But its good to see strong evidence that this chemical works on COVID19.

---------

On the other hand: pouring H2O2 into wounds and other "health" reasons is pure quackery. I highly suggest people don't do that. Its an effective poison and cleaner, but you really don't want that stuff going into your body.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 37672 confirmed infected --- 336 more
- 23580 recovered --- 368 more
- 1523 fatalities --- 1 more
- 355207 suspected cases --- 2029 more
- 1006563 tests taken --- 30826 more
- 1347 waiting for test results --- 29 more
- 30289 under watch from authorities --- 521 less
- 435 hospitalized --- 12 more
- 69 in ICU --- 2 less

Single digit daily death toll for the 12th day in a row: this never happened before.

We've crossed the 1M tests taken mark ... except that, according to Portuguese news channels, we've crossed that mar @ least two days ago ... which is in line with them NOT UPDATING that stat properly, like all the others stats ...

 

[dragontamer5788]

Maryland continues its steady decline in all benchmarks. Phase 2 reopening is planned for Friday this week, as long as the numbers remain good. I think we're in a good spot.

 

[Ahhzz]

View attachment 159407

Maryland continues its steady decline in all benchmarks. Phase 2 reopening is planned for Friday this week, as long as the numbers remain good. I think we're in a good spot.

Numbers are definitely leveling off, should make it much easier for hospitals to handle the volume and isolation needed to protect the other hospital patients.
Have we seen any serious, relatively feasible numbers about how infectious this is? I know with this still way out of control, seeing serious numbers on likely infection rates is still way out off the horizon, just wondering if anyone is attempting a running "guesstimate"

 

[dragontamer5788]

Numbers are definitely leveling off, should make it much easier for hospitals to handle the volume and isolation needed to protect the other hospital patients.
Have we seen any serious, relatively feasible numbers about how infectious this is? I know with this still way out of control, seeing serious numbers on likely infection rates is still way out off the horizon, just wondering if anyone is attempting a running "guesstimate"

The "true infection" rate is highly dependent on human behavior. During a lockdown, the infection rate declines.

R0 is the base reproduction rate, which is the average number of people that will get infected per generation without any safeguards in place. There were many, many studies on this, with results anywhere from 2 to 6 or so (maybe broader).

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of SARS-CoV-2

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9).

You or I can perform a similar analysis using the mortality numbers. Lets assume that March 25th through April 10th deaths are representative of the R0 rate. (The lockdowns may have started in the USA, but the death rate is highly delayed, and would have been representative of the infections nearly a month earlier).

United States: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile

United States: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?

ourworldindata.org

From March 20 to March 25th, there were +651 deaths. (The people who died at this time were probably infected in Feburary)

From April 5th to April 10th, there were +8189 deaths.

So over the course of 16 days, the USA deaths grew by 1258%. Assuming an interval of ~7 days per generation (ie: assuming that the average person only spreads COVID19 for 7 days), the period from March20th to April 5th represents 2.3 generations of growth. 12.58 ^ 1/2.3 == an R0 of 3.01.

------------

Basic reproduction number - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The 2014 Flu was around 1.7 R0. Ebola is 1.7. Measles is like 16.

So COVID19 is about 2x more infectious than the Flu or Ebola, but 1/5th Measles infection rate. Rough numbers of course. Lots of studies are coming out with different R0 estimations. But emperical evidence from the USA suggests an R0 rate close to 3. We'd need to know how long people infect other people (and other such modeling assumptions). But that probably gives you a back-of-the-envelope guestimation and maybe some insight into the thinking and math of public health.

 

[Ahhzz]

The "true infection" rate is highly dependent on human behavior. During a lockdown, the infection rate declines.

R0 is the base reproduction rate, which is the average number of people that will get infected per generation without any safeguards in place. There were many, many studies on this, with results anywhere from 2 to 6 or so (maybe broader).


You or I can perform a similar analysis using the mortality numbers. Lets assume that March 25th through April 10th deaths are representative of the R0 rate. (The lockdowns may have started in the USA, but the death rate is highly delayed, and would have been representative of the infections nearly a month earlier).
....

Thanks for the links, I'll peruse shortly . I'm not sure that going off the mortality numbers is going to be anywhere near "close enough" tho, especially when testing in the US was severely limited in the time frame you mentioned.
I didn't expect that many studies on the process yet, so I'll definitely do some digging to see if I can get a feel for what they expect. I think it will be way too hard to get really close, even in a single country, due to the asymptomatic cases, and limited testing. Honestly, probably wasting time even checking due to all the variables... Anyway, thanks for the links, ought to be entertaining if nothing else!

 

[dragontamer5788]

Thanks for the links, I'll peruse shortly . I'm not sure that going off the mortality numbers is going to be anywhere near "close enough" tho, especially when testing in the US was severely limited in the time frame you mentioned.
I didn't expect that many studies on the process yet, so I'll definitely do some digging to see if I can get a feel for what they expect. I think it will be way too hard to get really close, even in a single country, due to the asymptomatic cases, and limited testing. Honestly, probably wasting time even checking due to all the variables... Anyway, thanks for the links, ought to be entertaining if nothing else!

For the purposes of this post, lets assume US Testing was only 60% complete. That means that the "True" fatality rate for March20th might be over 1000, while the "true" fatality rate for April5th is over 12000.

But guess what? As long as the USA was consistently underestimating in both weeks, then my math remains the same. 1085 for March 25th, 13648 for April 10th. 13648 / 1085 == 1258%, my math hasn't changed at all. 1258% of course becomes R0 of 3.01.

It doesn't matter how much % underestimating anyone was. As long as the country was consistent in its measurement, we are able to discover the truth, even in the presence of missing or incomplete data.

Honestly, probably wasting time even checking due to all the variables... Anyway, thanks for the links, ought to be entertaining if nothing else!

Its a very important question to actually model this. Back in March, when people were questioning whether or not countries should lock down, this math was incredibly important to run through. The issue back then was that we only had Chinese data (and not everyone trusted China to be telling the full truth with their numbers), but it seems like the Wuhan model was pretty close to what happened elsewhere in the world.

And now that we're looking at opening our countries back up, we need to think about the "R" number (the true reproductive number), and how to keep it reasonable. R of 1 or less means that the virus will no longer be growing (1000 infected becomes 1000 infected in the next generation... no growth). The goal of our reopenings is to open up and get as close to R == 1 as possible, without getting over. As such, we need to continue testing and collecting statistics on our reopening plans. If R grows above 1 at any point, we need to reverse the reopenings and start locking down again.

EDIT: A huge discussion point was the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Because virtually everyone was exposed to the virus, as well as tested, it was the perfect "test case" back in February to study.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028449v2.full.pdf

We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1−2.4)

Back then, they estimated an R0 of 2.2 on the cruise ship. But we have more data these days to estimate that parameter now. A huge amount of discussion and research has gone into R0, its one of the most important numbers to understand this disease.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 38089 confirmed infected --- 417 more
- 24010 recovered --- 430 more
- 1524 fatalities --- 1 more
- 357291 suspected cases --- 2084 more
- 1006563 tests taken --- not updated ...
- 1337 waiting for test results --- 10 less
- 30426 under watch from authorities --- 137 more
- 416 hospitalized --- 19 less
- 67 in ICU --- 2 less

Single digit daily death toll for the 13th day in a row: this never happened before.

According to Portuguese news channels, we've crossed 1M tests taken @ least three days ago ... which is in line with them NOT UPDATING that stat properly, like all the others stats ...

The reason the lower bottom right section is different is that, unlike yesterday and before when it showed infected, recovered and death's numbers evolution, it's now showing hospitalized and ICU numbers evolution, which i'll continue to do from now on. As can be seen it was going down "quite nicely" until 10 days ago when it went up again, though it appears to be stabilizing.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 38464 confirmed infected --- 375 more
- 24477 recovered --- 467 more
- 1527 fatalities --- 3 more
- 359579 suspected cases --- 2288 more
- 1047109 tests taken --- 40546 more, but it "feels" low for @ least 4 days worth of tests
- 1530 waiting for test results --- 193 more
- 29046 under watch from authorities --- 1380 less
- 422 hospitalized --- 6 more
- 67 in ICU --- no change

Single digit daily death toll for the 14th day in a row: this never happened before.

Lisbon has crossed the 3K infected mark and is by far the hardest hit county.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 38841 confirmed infected --- 377 more
- 24906 recovered --- 429 more
- 1528 fatalities --- 1 more
- 361848 suspected cases --- 2269 more
- 1047109 tests taken --- not updated ...
- 1771 waiting for test results --- 241 more
- 30852 under watch from authorities --- 1806 more
- 422 hospitalized --- no change
- 70 in ICU --- 3 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 15th day in a row. We've yet to have a day with no COVID-19 fatalities though, like today, we've been "pretty close" to that goal.

We had, as can be seen in the lower right portion of the graph above, a steadily declining rate of hospitalized and ICU numbers until about 2 weeks ago when they suddenly climbed a bit again and have, since then, sort of stabilized: it's unknown @ this point if the 300 to 450 daily infected cases lately will contribute to have these numbers climb again but i wouldn't be surprised if it did ...

 

[dragontamer5788]

There's a LOT of people out on the streets again, now that Phase 2 reopening has officially started.

Most seem to be wearing masks (as per the local Maryland law), but many people are doing the stupid "mask over mouth, but not nose" thing. I guess its still better than no covering at all, but it really removes the point of the mask if you can still breath in air unimpeded.

I guess you still prevent aerosols from spewing while you talk however, so its not completely a waste.

 

[Tatty_Two]

UK Update 20 June:

 

[P4-630]

Netherlands June 20:

Positive tested: +91
Hospitalized: +2
Deaths: +8

 

[HTC]

There's a LOT of people out on the streets again, now that Phase 2 reopening has officially started.

Most seem to be wearing masks (as per the local Maryland law), but many people are doing the stupid "mask over mouth, but not nose" thing. I guess its still better than no covering at all, but it really removes the point of the mask if you can still breath in air unimpeded.

I guess you still prevent aerosols from spewing while you talk however, so its not completely a waste.

I said it before (elsewhere) and i'll say it again: act and conduct yourself like EVERYONE you come in contact with is an unknowingly asymptomatic infected, for as long as there is no medicine that significantly reduces the need for hospitalization or, better yet, a vaccine is found and distributed worldwide, regardless of how long that takes.

EDIT

By "you" and "yourself" i mean in general: not @ you specifically.

 

[dirtyferret]

"Florida is screwed. Basically every other flight from metro NYC is going to one of Florida four major metro areas. You won't be hit hard now but once NYC is set free it will go through Florida like crap through a goose and that nitwit governor won't help"
I posted that May 9th and got a low quality mark on it so I can't quote it but look at Florida now

Florida’s Covid-19 surge shows the state's reopening plan is not working

As counties end the second week of Governor Ron DeSantis’ ‘safe, smart, step-by-step’ policy, the state marks a record high in daily cases

www.google.com

 

[Tatty_Two]

"Florida is screwed. Basically every other flight from metro NYC is going to one of Florida four major metro areas. You won't be hit hard now but once NYC is set free it will go through Florida like crap through a goose and that nitwit governor won't help"
I posted that May 9th and got a low quality mark on it so I can't quote it but look at Florida now

Florida’s Covid-19 surge shows the state's reopening plan is not working

As counties end the second week of Governor Ron DeSantis’ ‘safe, smart, step-by-step’ policy, the state marks a record high in daily cases

www.google.com

I must admit, I thought it strange that so many states were reopening when a few had not reached their peak, although I think Florida did reach peak certainly initially.

 

[dragontamer5788]

"Florida is screwed. Basically every other flight from metro NYC is going to one of Florida four major metro areas. You won't be hit hard now but once NYC is set free it will go through Florida like crap through a goose and that nitwit governor won't help"
I posted that May 9th and got a low quality mark on it so I can't quote it but look at Florida now

Florida’s Covid-19 surge shows the state's reopening plan is not working

As counties end the second week of Governor Ron DeSantis’ ‘safe, smart, step-by-step’ policy, the state marks a record high in daily cases

www.google.com

The general issue is that people are so skeptical of the "media" and "science" that they don't want to believe in the reported numbers at all.

As I've said before: even in my inner circle of friends, coworkers, and family... a large number of people distrust the numbers due to a variety of reasons. From anti-media bias (media didn't blame protesters), to anti-government bias ("Deep State"), to anti-science bias ("The scientists were wrong about masks (or whatever), they're probably wrong again"). The only thing to convince someone of that level of skepticism is to wait for the disease to affect them personally. In fact, a huge number of my inner-circle still believe in "herd immunity" as the best way forward. (Just get everyone sick approach).

I'm happy that my governor is looking at the numbers and actually doing a science-based approach to all this. Phase 2 is worrying me because it really seems to be a much larger reopening than the Phase1 step... but I'm pretty confident that if things go haywire, my governor / local leaders will make the correct decision to make us safe again. I'm not sure if that's true across the country however.

 

[Tatty_Two]

We are deep into phase 2 now, phase 3 will start on 4th July with tourism (within UK) and hospitality starting back up but with some limitations, that will be when it all either goes South or it's managed appropriately. Government for the sake of hospitality have announced they will reduce the 2 metre social distancing limit to 1 metre because so many small restaurants and bars can't make ends meet with so few customers, I feel it's a mistake, I don't want to see a sector of small businesses go bust but there are 66 million people in this country and they all take the hit if things do go south.

All schools will not now be back until September so currently just a select 15% or so are at school currently.

Edit: The population generally believe what is happening and take it seriously, we have loads of coverage at the local TV networks level showing stories of loss and suffering, people know it's real, we also have documentaries focussing on front line medical staff showing them near breaking point during the peak.