Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 31779 active cases --- 3500 more --- 500 more per day
- 825684 recovered --- 4346 more --- 857 more per day
- 17084 fatalities --- 19 more --- 3 more per day
- 874547 confirmed infected --- 9497 more --- 1357 more per day

- 12926064 tests taken --- 336995 more --- 56166 more per day but was last updated June 23rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 7903317 vaccinated --- 567336 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 5048460 1st doses + 2854857 2nd doses
- 477 hospitalized --- 72 more --- 10 more per day
- 116 in ICU --- 19 more --- 3 more per day

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities increased very slightly VS last week: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 13th consecutive week. The R number decreased to 1.15 on average. Roughly 50% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 28% have received both doses.

For the 2nd consecutive week, we've been having an average of over 1350 new daily cases and, though we had a very slight decrease VS last week, it's still cause for concern.

 

[Xzibit]

In the UK since the delta variant was identified we have had 50 deaths as a direct result of it (reported on the news yesterday), these deaths were all over 50 year olds and almost exclusively one jab people or 2 jabs with significant underlying conditions, currently the under 30 year olds account for 98% of new infections and all the adult under 30's with underlying conditions have pretty much been double jabbed already. I really am not seeing anything that has not been anticipated, I mean the UK has opened up significantly in a staged manner over the last 3 months, of course infection rates are going to rise. I am not suggesting this is perfect by any means, for all of us it's a vaccination race against time.

Its rising

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test

June 25

There have now been a total of 117 deaths in England of people confirmed as having the Delta variant

Back to the USA

The CDC doesn’t count every breakthrough case. It stopped counting all breakthrough cases May 1 and now only tallies those that lead to hospitalization or death, a move the agency was criticized for by health experts.

Breakthrough cases aren't being fully counted or anything that doesn't land you in the ICU or death.

On June 7, the CDC received reports of 3,459 breakthrough cases that led to hospitalization or death. On June 18, that number was updated to 3,729, an increase of 270 cases. Today, the number stands at 4,115.

A week or two ago I posted local news of 2 counties in my area reported what would make almost half of the CDC numbers in the entire USA at the time.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Its rising


June 25


Back to the USA

Breakthrough cases aren't being fully counted or anything that doesn't land you in the ICU or death.

A week or two ago I posted local news of 2 counties in my area reported what would make almost half of the CDC numbers in the entire USA at the time.

Well the news must have got it wrong then, however it apparently has a really low death rate @ 0.13% which is less than the death rate for influenza in the UK 2018/19 which was 0.22% ....................

Low death rate from Delta variant 'hugely encouraging' for vaccine success (inews.co.uk)

 

[Space Lynx]

Is one vaccine dose enough if you’ve had COVID? What the science says

Research shows that a previous coronavirus infection plus one dose of vaccine provides powerful protection — but concerns linger.

www.nature.com

looks like those that previously had Covid who only get one shot of Pfizer have more antibodies than people who never had covid and had both shots of Pfizer. on top of that, it looks like if you had covid previously plus get both shots of pfizer you actually get lower antibodies than compared to sticking with one shot.

looks like the science is fairly clear on this one, if you had covid previously you only need 1 shot not two. that's good news for the world supply issues.

 

[the54thvoid]

Is one vaccine dose enough if you’ve had COVID? What the science says

Research shows that a previous coronavirus infection plus one dose of vaccine provides powerful protection — but concerns linger.

www.nature.com

looks like those that previously had Covid who only get one shot of Pfizer have more antibodies than people who never had covid and had both shots of Pfizer. on top of that, it looks like if you had covid previously plus get both shots of pfizer you actually get lower antibodies than compared to sticking with one shot.

looks like the science is fairly clear on this one, if you had covid previously you only need 1 shot not two. that's good news for the world supply issues.

The article says those who had Covid and one jab had "equal or greater" antibodies. It's not a simple case of two jabs is worse. They also say it's too early to make a clear judgement as it may not apply to all vaccines.

But this isn't a surprise, medical staff tested in 2020 had high Covid antibody levels, clearly because of a constant 'micro' exposure through use of PPE.

Problem is, 80% of cases are asymptomatic, so how do you know if you've had your natural exposure and only need one jab? Studies are meaningless unless they're transposed onto real world scenarios.

 

[Space Lynx]

The article says those who had Covid and one jab had "equal or greater" antibodies. It's not a simple case of two jabs is worse. They also say it's too early to make a clear judgement as it may not apply to all vaccines.

But this isn't a surprise, medical staff tested in 2020 had high Covid antibody levels, clearly because of a constant 'micro' exposure through use of PPE.

Problem is, 80% of cases are asymptomatic, so how do you know if you've had your natural exposure and only need one jab? Studies are meaningless unless they're transposed onto real world scenarios.

when I had covid it was not asymptomatic, in fact it kicked my ass. so I am in the category that qualifies as only needing one jab. easy way to find out, pay $10 for an antibody blood test. if its low then i get second shot, if not then im good to go.

 

[Tatty_Two]

I recall various sources including the British Medical Journal stating a few months back that people who had caught either the original or Alpha (UK) variant had gone on to catch the South African variant just 2 or 3 months later and when tested it was shown that they had very week immune systems in relation to the SA variant so I suppose, as they say, "not all variants are equal"

 

[Space Lynx]

I recall various sources including the British Medical Journal stating a few months back that people who had caught either the original or Alpha (UK) variant had gone on to catch the South African variant just 2 or 3 months later and when tested it was shown that they had very week immune systems in relation to the SA variant so I suppose, as they say, "not all variants are equal"

Did those people have 3 weeks past their first shot of Pfizer or Moderna before they caught the other variant? That's the key part of this.

 

[Tatty_Two]

I am fairly sure they were un-vaccinated but my point being that if the vaccine is effective against XXX variant, natural immunity gained from a different variant may not be and therefore your post #2954 assumption may be altered somewhat.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines Likely to Produce Lasting Immunity, Study Finds (Published 2021)

Immune cells are still organizing to fight the coronavirus months after inoculation, scientists reported.

www.nytimes.com

Immunity has been demonstrated in 8+ month trials, 12+ month trials, and even longer trials. Furthermore: the immune response from our bodies also evolves over time.

“Everyone always focuses on the virus evolving — this is showing that the B cells are doing the same thing,” said Marion Pepper, an immunologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. “And it’s going to be protective against ongoing evolution of the virus, which is really encouraging.”

The vaccine doesn't change, but our B-cells (the creators of antibodies) change and evolve. As such: our bodies are able to handle variants even though these variants don't look like the vaccine.

Furthermore, this study suggests a very long period of immunity, possibly lifetime (as long as the virus doesn't evolve too much):

Exactly how long the protection from mRNA vaccines will last is hard to predict. In the absence of variants that sidestep immunity, in theory immunity could last a lifetime, experts said. But the virus is clearly evolving.

“Anything that would actually require a booster would be variant-based, not based on waning of immunity,” Dr. Bhattacharya said. “I just don’t see that happening.”

Finally:

In terms of bolstering the immune system, vaccination is “probably better” than recovering from the actual infection, he said. Other studies have suggested that the repertoire of memory B cells produced after vaccination is more diverse than that generated by infection, suggesting that the vaccines will protect better against variants than natural immunity alone.

mRNA Vaccination is once again, proving to be better at protecting than the actual disease in yet another measure. Nature ain't got nothing on our supervaccine.

 

[Xzibit]

Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines Likely to Produce Lasting Immunity, Study Finds (Published 2021)

Immune cells are still organizing to fight the coronavirus months after inoculation, scientists reported.

www.nytimes.com

Immunity has been demonstrated in 8+ month trials, 12+ month trials, and even longer trials. Furthermore: the immune response from our bodies also evolves over time.



The vaccine doesn't change, but our B-cells (the creators of antibodies) change and evolve. As such: our bodies are able to handle variants even though these variants don't look like the vaccine.

Furthermore, this study suggests a very long period of immunity, possibly lifetime (as long as the virus doesn't evolve too much):



Finally:



mRNA Vaccination is once again, proving to be better at protecting than the actual disease in yet another measure. Nature ain't got nothing on our supervaccine.

For those who don't want to run into the pay wall

Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines likely to produce long-lasting immunity, study suggests​

So 4 months

“The fact that the reactions continued for almost four months after vaccination — that’s a very, very good sign,”

The important part

The findings add to growing evidence that most people immunized with the mRNA vaccines may not need boosters, so long as the virus and its variants do not evolve much beyond their current forms — which is not guaranteed

 

[dragontamer5788]

So 4 months

This is a reaction that normally disappears 1 week after a typical vaccination. Context is important. There's a reason why they're talking "possible lifetime" for this study.

 

[Xzibit]

This is a reaction that normally disappears 1 week after a typical vaccination. Context is important. There's a reason why they're talking "possible lifetime" for this study.

Those who are being studied had been infected with COVID-19 then Vaccinated. They are hopeful the same reaction is possible with vaccine alone.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Those who are being studied had been infected with COVID-19 then Vaccinated. They are hopeful the same reaction is possible with vaccine alone.

To address this question, we conducted an observational study of 41 healthy adults (8 with history of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection) who received the Pfizer-BioNTech SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) (Extended Data Tables 1, 2)

Of the 41 studied individuals, only 8 of them had COVID19 and then was vaccinated. The other 33 individuals were simply vaccinated + 2nd dose. The immune system responses in both groups of people were then measured in a 3, 4, 5, 7, and 15 week period after vaccination.

Further details can be found in the linked article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03738-2

 

[dragontamer5788]

We're beginning to reach incredible amounts of practical real-life evidence for how effective these vaccines are.

Nearly 100% of L.A. County’s recent COVID deaths among the unvaccinated as Delta variant spreads

Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in recent months in Los Angeles County have been among unvaccinated residents, the same group most at risk of being infected with a new, more contagious coronavirus varia…

ktla.com

“This is a pandemic of unvaccinated people,” L.A. County Health Director Barbara Ferrer said during a briefing.

Between Dec. 7 and June 7, 98.7% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 weren’t vaccinated and 99.8% of people who died weren’t vaccinated either, according to the health director.

The country is currently in 40% fully vaccinated / ~50% first dose vaccinated mark (which means back in Dec / January / Feb, there were more unvaccinated than vaccinated). So leave your Simpson's paradox at the door: if anything, Simpson's paradox benefits the vaccine group.

 

[Space Lynx]

Of the 41 studied individuals, only 8 of them had COVID19 and then was vaccinated. The other 33 individuals were simply vaccinated + 2nd dose. The immune system responses in both groups of people were then measured in a 3, 4, 5, 7, and 15 week period after vaccination.

Further details can be found in the linked article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03738-2

so this article confirms the previous article I linked? those 8 people had same levels or better of immune response with only one shot?

im leaning towards not getting my second shot. all the science seems to say that if you had symptoms with covid, recovered, then get one shot instead of two your antibodies are better than those with no covid and both shots. so technically i should be better than most people right now. feels good to be protected won't lie. now i just need to figure out if i need second shot or not. i'd prefer not if possible. need another study to confirm this before i know for sure though i think... i can still get second shot up to 6 weeks out from first one... so lets hope another study gets posted soon

 

[dragontamer5788]

so this article confirms the previous article I linked? those 8 people had same levels or better of immune response with only one shot?

im leaning towards not getting my second shot. all the science seems to say that if you had symptoms with covid, recovered, then get one shot instead of two your antibodies are better than those with no covid and both shots. so technically i should be better than most people right now. feels good to be protected won't lie. now i just need to figure out if i need second shot or not. i'd prefer not if possible. need another study to confirm this before i know for sure though i think... i can still get second shot up to 6 weeks out from first one... so lets hope another study gets posted soon

All 41 participants had both doses (even the 8 who previously had COVID19). This is clear in "Extended Table 2" in the above linked .PDF, page 18. The only thing that's clear from this particular study, is that the recommended 2-doses is very effective in a variety of measurements in a variety of timelines (from 3 weeks to 15 weeks). Nothing in the article seems to support your assertions.

 

[Xzibit]

so this article confirms the previous article I linked? those 8 people had same levels or better of immune response with only one shot?

im leaning towards not getting my second shot. all the science seems to say that if you had symptoms with covid, recovered, then get one shot instead of two your antibodies are better than those with no covid and both shots. so technically i should be better than most people right now. feels good to be protected won't lie. now i just need to figure out if i need second shot or not. i'd prefer not if possible. need another study to confirm this before i know for sure though i think... i can still get second shot up to 6 weeks out from first one... so lets hope another study gets posted soon

?

Evidence that the tested vaccines induce new as well as pre-existing B cells is remains weak and a more careful wording is recommended in regard to this statement.

The newer post reported in the LA article the USC Prof @00:50+ says "The data so far shows people with prior infection have equal protection to those vaccinated" "Do you really need to get vaccinate, we really don't know, It is recommended regardless of prior infection"

 

[Space Lynx]

In the article I linked a few posts ago, the science seems fairly clear to me that previous symptomatic (not asymptomatic) infection + 1 shot of vaccine = better than no infection + two shots of vaccine.

I think I am pretty safe at this point. If nothing else I will get the second shot in week 6.

 

[Xzibit]

In the article I linked a few posts ago, the science seems fairly clear to me that previous symptomatic (not asymptomatic) infection + 1 shot of vaccine = better than no infection + two shots of vaccine.

I think I am pretty safe at this point. If nothing else I will get the second shot in week 6.

Most of the studies finding these B cell variation cells that are good at fighting different variant of covid-19 are being found on non-vaccinated asymptomatic people. Wouldn't surprise me if by next year we see one of these big pharma companies come out with a cocktail mix of some sort.

 

[Tatty_Two]

My understanding is that "natural immunity" is only a reasonable certainty if you come into contact with the strain of the virus that you have had previously but if it is a different variant then immunity can be compromised, even in the UK there is evidence that many people who caught the original strain last Spring have caught the virus again because that original strain pretty much does not exist any longer over here, in the Winter the Alpha (UK) variant became dominant and now the Delta (Indian) variant is 97% dominant but to shed a little more light on the current topic I found this quite interesting from the NIH ..............

How Immunity Generated from COVID-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection – NIH Director's Blog

 

[Xzibit]

My understanding is that "natural immunity" is only a reasonable certainty if you come into contact with the strain of the virus that you have had previously but if it is a different variant then immunity can be compromised, even in the UK there is evidence that many people who caught the original strain last Spring have caught the virus again because that original strain pretty much does not exist any longer over here, in the Winter the Alpha (UK) variant became dominant and now the Delta (Indian) variant is 97% dominant but to shed a little more light on the current topic I found this quite interesting from the NIH ..............

How Immunity Generated from COVID-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection – NIH Director's Blog

Like benchmarking for a favorable result

There are several limitations to our study. The vaccinated individuals in our study were relatively young (18 to 55 years) and healthy, whereas the convalescent individuals were older (23 to 76 years; median, 56) with a range of comorbidities

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 38124 active cases --- 6345 more --- 906 more per day
- 833852 recovered --- 8168 more --- 1167 more per day
- 17112 fatalities --- 28 more --- 4 more per day
- 889088 confirmed infected --- 14541 more --- 2077 more per day

- 13332881 tests taken --- 406817 more --- 58117 more per day but was last updated June 23rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 9060568 vaccinated --- 1157251 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 5662065 1st doses + 3398503 2nd doses
- 567 hospitalized --- 90 more --- 13 more per day
- 128 in ICU --- 12 more --- 2 more per day

The main report wasn't published yesterday, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities increased slightly VS last week, despite having 1 day with zero fatalities: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 14th consecutive week. The R number increased to 1.17 on average. Roughly 56.5% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 33.7% have received both doses. Over 1.1 million doses administered in just one week: for a country of just over 10 million people, that's VERY significant.

New daily cases have risen well above our 1st wave's peak though are still below our 2nd wave's and it looks like it will continue to grow further before receding: NOT GOOD ... though not as bad due to the vaccine's efficacy.

 

[64K]

@Caring1

There are at least 200 known cases of the Delta Plus coronavirus variant worldwide. Here's what we know

A new and slightly changed version of the Delta coronavirus variant is spreading in a number of countries including the United Kingdom, United States and India, health officials say.

www.gwinnettdailypost.com

only a matter of time, all the plane travel in full bloom... and countries weren't even wise enough to require vaccine card before coming in their country... LOL I honestly don't even care anymore, just laughing like a madman at this point. there is no stopping Covid. it's going to mutate and mutate until it finally wins the jackpot. mRNA won't be able to keep up until there is another lockdown issues and 4k+ daily deaths again. Covid is here to stay.

We can't rely on countries to use any common sense, so we have to adapt. TIME TO GAME AND BUY LOG CABIN BOYS

love all the people where I live, think they are so tough cause they stopped wearing masks and are looking at me funny still for wearing one. LOL it's amazing to me how humans don't understand basic logic. you think this is the last mutation? it literally spreads faster with each mutation...

even with UK mostly all vaccinated, that curve is skyrocketing... its literally doubling every few days... at 15k positive rate now in one day... was 6k daily last week, and 1k daily week before that. vaccine may keep us from dying and hospital, but its not stopping this new variant from spreading. only a matter of time before it mutates again, probably with someone that has the vaccine, and it changes its spike into something new. keep giving me funny looks for wearing my mask at grocery store, i'm just playing the kanye west stronger song over and over at this point LMAO covid got an anthem boys!

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

I still wear a mask too and don't plan to stop. Some people believe the vaccines are more effective than they really are. You can still get the Covid Virus even if you are vaccinated.

 

[Space Lynx]

I still wear a mask too and don't plan to stop. Some people believe the vaccines are more effective than they really are. You can still get the Covid Virus even if you are vaccinated.

but only like 0.001% of those fully vaccinated get the virus and end up in hospital. that's not why I wear a mask, I wear it just in-case there is a new mutation we won't know about until it hits hard and fast. and since each new variant seems to spread faster than the one before it...

I have had some friends tell me the vaccine may cause it to mutate even more, once it gets into a vaccine person and realizes it has to adapt or die... not sure how true that is. I'm still glad I got my Pfizer jab to be honest, it feels like extra blanket of security.