Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[HTC]

I still wear a mask too and don't plan to stop. Some people believe the vaccines are more effective than they really are. You can still get the Covid Virus even if you are vaccinated.

Here in Portugal, and according to our Health Department (DGS), out of 2.5M people with BOTH doses taken, 2357 still got the virus but only 52 required hospitalization: that's 0.094% infected and 0.002% hospitalized.

That's FANTASTIC: even better than the 95% efficacy advertised.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Here in Portugal, and according to our Health Department (DGS), out of 2.5M people with BOTH doses taken, 2357 still got the virus but only 52 required hospitalization: that's 0.094% infected and 0.002% hospitalized.

That's FANTASTIC: even better than the 95% efficacy advertised.

Bad math. Your math only holds true if all 2.5M people were exposed to the virus.

What you need to do is calculate the number of infected people, then split them up into vaccinated vs unvaccinated pools, and then run like some kind of ANOVA statistical test over the data. I don't really know, I'm not a statistician and I never actually formally studied experimental theory. But I picked some stuff up over the flamewars over the past year...

But the 95% efficacy for Pfizer was from such a study with such statistics. When the control group had X infections, the vaccine group (of equal size and of similar distribution) only had X/20 infections, or 95% efficacy.

 

[HTC]

Bad math. Your math only holds true if all 2.5M people were exposed to the virus.

What you need to do is calculate the number of infected people, then split them up into vaccinated vs unvaccinated pools, and then run like some kind of ANOVA statistical test over the data. I don't really know, I'm not a statistician and I never actually formally studied experimental theory. But I picked some stuff up over the flamewars over the past year...

But the 95% efficacy for Pfizer was from such a study with such statistics. When the control group had X infections, the vaccine group (of equal size and of similar distribution) only had X/20 infections, or 95% efficacy.

I think i see your point. Portugal also has over 3.3M people fully vaccinated but the data posted on the news was only 2.5M, which i found odd.

That said, of an universe of 2.5M with full vaccination to have only that many cases with COVID-19 / hospitalizations, is a testament to the value of the vaccines and their efficacy.

EDIT

I figured it out why it's only 2.5M with full vaccination instead of the current 3.3M: it's because of the 10-15 days waiting period AFTER the last dose, which i wasn't taking in to account.

 

[Space Lynx]

the latest out of Israel is that two shots of covid only protect 64% against delta variant, not 80% as previously thought.

93% of severe hospitalizations... which is down as well from previous calculations.

still good. hell, still great. but its a worrying trend as it continues to mutate...

as I said before. the virus is learning. so who wants to go half in half on a cabin in woods and grow our own veggies? LOL

 

[the54thvoid]

the latest out of Israel is that two shots of covid only protect 64% against delta variant, not 80% as previously thought.

93% of severe hospitalizations... which is down as well from previous calculations.

still good. hell, still great. but its a worrying trend as it continues to mutate...

as I said before. the virus is learning. so who wants to go half in half on a cabin in woods and grow our own veggies? LOL

UK studies from June show a better response. 14k cases looked at.

Vaccines highly effective against hospitalisation from Delta variant

New analysis by PHE shows for the first time that 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalisation from the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant.

www.gov.uk

Remember, vaccines don't stop you testing positive. They massively reduce mortality and more so for severe illness.

 

[dragontamer5788]

the latest out of Israel is that two shots of covid only protect 64% against delta variant, not 80% as previously thought.

93% of severe hospitalizations... which is down as well from previous calculations.

still good. hell, still great. but its a worrying trend as it continues to mutate...

as I said before. the virus is learning. so who wants to go half in half on a cabin in woods and grow our own veggies? LOL

Science is not very precise. The answer is likely that the vaccines protection is between 63% and 80%.

It's fun to be an electrical engineer. Circuit tolerances are measured in decibels of noise. 3db loss is a +/- 50% difference. Our junk works off of 20db or even 50db of variance (especially radios lol)

Don't sweat the exact number. Everything you see is just a best estimate. Assume like 1 sigfig of accuracy on a lot of these studies.

 

[dragontamer5788]

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection caused by the P.1 lineage in Araraquara city, Sao Paulo State, Brazil - PubMed

Reinfection by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-COV-2) has been reported in many countries, suggesting that the virus may continue to circulate among humans despite the possibility of local herd immunity due to massive previous infections. The emergence of variants...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

A 2nd study showing that P.1 seemingly reinfected large portions of a Brazillian population, this time in Araraquara City.

The P.1 variant (aka: Brazil variant) has been shown to be behind the reinfection of the city of Manaus (a previous study), and now Araraquara city. This means that even if you have gotten COVID19, get vaccinated so that you can be protected from P.1.

I know people are talking about Delta right now, but P.1 being a threat to "natural immunity" holders is also an issue. Delta's big issue is how it drops the efficacy of the vaccinated population (serious illness is still prevented, but now the virus can traverse even a vaccinated population). Given what we know, its clear that fully vaccinating people is the best shot against Delta and P.1.

-------

P.1 is known as "Gamma", currently less of an immediate concern than "Delta" (aka: Indian variant), but still important enough to be given a "scary greek letter". Alpha is now the name of the UK-variant, and Beta is now the name of the South African variant.

It seems like people were tired of trying to remember how to type out "B.1.1.7" (aka: Alpha / UK variant), and maybe the whole "country designation" isn't going to scale (what if India or UK get a 2nd variant of concern? Calling it UK #2 might be confusing)

 

[Xzibit]

CBS: Santa Clara County Revises Official COVID-19 Death Toll Down by 22 Percent​

Second county to report a 20% drop in deaths after a review

“It is important to go back and do this accounting to see if COVID was actually the cause of death,” said University of California San Francisco Prof. of Medicine and Infectious Disease expert Dr. Monica Gandhi. “I think that transparent communication is an upside, I mean, in the sense that it’s true that if we did this across the nation, it would bring our death rate lower. A downside of that, could be that people will say, ‘Well, it wasn’t as serious as you said.'”

Gandhi believes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may soon ask all counties to do the same as Alameda and Santa Clara Counties and that the nation could also see a drop in its COVID-19 death toll.

 

[claes]

If you could post some thoughts about your news articles it’d be helpful, it’s kind of hard to infer what your meaning/intentions are when you simply post headlines

 

[the54thvoid]

The UK already did that last summer. Only cases who had tested positive for Covid within 28 days were treated as true Covid deaths. If you actually died of Covid but never tested for it, it would be missed. So, this goes both ways. It likely underestimates the deaths. If you look at places with poorer access to healthcare, where people died at home, there'll be a hidden toll far in excess of the drop this adjustment would achieve. India is one example of that.

 

[Xzibit]

The UK already did that last summer. Only cases who had tested positive for Covid within 28 days were treated as true Covid deaths. If you actually died of Covid but never tested for it, it would be missed. So, this goes both ways. It likely underestimates the deaths. If you look at places with poorer access to healthcare, where people died at home, there'll be a hidden toll far in excess of the drop this adjustment would achieve. India is one example of that.

UK PHE

The new definition is now death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and died within (equal to or less than) 28 days of the first positive specimen date will now be reported

The PHE data series includes deaths in anyone with laboratory confirmed COVID-19, including those who die outside of hospital settings. It aims to be a timely and complete measure by combining information from multiple sources.

the PHE data series does not report cause of death, and as such represents deaths in people with COVID-19 and not necessarily caused by COVID-19.

UK went from a No cut-off limit to a 28 day cut-off for positive test.

Both the prior and updated definitions for COVID-19 deaths used by the County fit within the parameters established by the State of California Department of Public Health. The prior definition included anyone who had COVID-19 who died, while the updated definition focuses on the cause of the death and aligns better with the determinations made by the Medical Examiner-Coroner in cases of overlapping jurisdiction.

 

[Space Lynx]

The UK already did that last summer. Only cases who had tested positive for Covid within 28 days were treated as true Covid deaths. If you actually died of Covid but never tested for it, it would be missed. So, this goes both ways. It likely underestimates the deaths. If you look at places with poorer access to healthcare, where people died at home, there'll be a hidden toll far in excess of the drop this adjustment would achieve. India is one example of that.

I agree with this, you would be surprised how many clinics just turn people away and say go rest at home, and then families give up.

My Mom had loss of taste (a few other symptoms and overall felt ill) in April/May 2020, went to ER, and they refused to even test her even though she had a very specific symptom and just told her to go home, unless she got worse. She ended up not going back (thinking no one cared and they wouldn't do anything even if she went back) but was sick for several weeks.

I really have lost a lot of respect for the medical community over the last 18 months. They get paid a ton... but seem to fail at basic logic. I'm not sure I even trust the FDA anymore with their approval of snake oil cure for Alzheimer's by Biogen.

 

[claes]

I dunno I gained a lot of respect for my friends in ERs this last year... They were turning away people who weren’t dying because they didn’t have supplies or beds or oxygen. Has to be tough working in a just-in-time/LEAN hospital when a pandemic hits amd you watch hundreds die due to a lack of supplies, budget cuts, lay offs, etc

 

[64K]

I agree with this, you would be surprised how many clinics just turn people away and say go rest at home, and then families give up.

My Mom had loss of taste (a few other symptoms and overall felt ill) in April/May 2020, went to ER, and they refused to even test her even though she had a very specific symptom and just told her to go home, unless she got worse. She ended up not going back (thinking no one cared and they wouldn't do anything even if she went back) but was sick for several weeks.

I really have lost a lot of respect for the medical community over the last 18 months. They get paid a ton... but seem to fail at basic logic. I'm not sure I even trust the FDA anymore with their approval of snake oil cure for Alzheimer's by Biogen.

I get your frustration with the medical community and I get frustrated with them too but I think I understand why they did what they did at the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak. They were swamped with people that had trouble breathing or would have died without considerable medical treatment. There are only so many beds available so they had to prioritize based on the condition of the infected. If she had started having trouble breathing then they would have found some place for her.

This virus is scary. We got all the way down to the single digits of new cases for a while here in my County and now yesterday it ballooned to 52 new cases per day. It must be the new variants.

 

[Space Lynx]

I get your frustration with the medical community and I get frustrated with them too but I think I understand why they did what they did at the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak. They were swamped with people that had trouble breathing or would have died without considerable medical treatment. There are only so many beds available so they had to prioritize based on the condition of the infected. If she had started having trouble breathing then they would have found some place for her.

This virus is scary. We got all the way down to the single digits of new cases for a while here in my County and now yesterday it ballooned to 52 new cases per day. It must be the new variants.

Normally I would agree with you, but I am from a small town, and the ER was relatively empty the night my mom went. Our small town didn't get hit that hard and we have a really big oversized hospital (relative to our area) that was built only about a decade or so ago. They had plenty here, in fact they only told her not to worry about her no taste, they let her into the part of the hospital where covid positive people are not supposed to be allowed. So they neglected not only the Covid test with a very specific (no taste) covid system, they were so confident she didn't have covid, they let her into part of the ER that was off limits to positive covid people for her to be seen...

So... no. You didn't have the context though...

 

[Xzibit]

It was state dependent but some states granted immunity for Health-care providers down to workers from civil to criminal suits. Most know is New York due to the Nursing home debacle.

New York providers granted immunity from civil, criminal liability during pandemic​

Once enacted into the law, the legislation will protect hospitals, nursing homes, administrators, board members, physicians, nurses and other providers from civil and criminal responsibility for decisions or omissions occurring from March 7, when the governor declared an emergency through its expiration.

 

[64K]

Normally I would agree with you, but I am from a small town, and the ER was relatively empty the night my mom went. Our small town didn't get hit that hard and we have a really big oversized hospital (relative to our area) that was built only about a decade or so ago. They had plenty here, in fact they only told her not to worry about her no taste, they let her into the part of the hospital where covid positive people are not supposed to be allowed. So they neglected not only the Covid test with a very specific (no taste) covid system, they were so confident she didn't have covid, they let her into part of the ER that was off limits to positive covid people for her to be seen...

So... no. You didn't have the context though...

They could have at least given her a Covid-19 test. Hell, in my city you could drive up to a stand at some pharmacies and someone would come out and test you for Covid at no charge. You didn't even need to get out of your car.

 

[Space Lynx]

They could have at least given her a Covid-19 test. Hell, in my city you could drive up to a stand at some pharmacies and someone would come out and test you for Covid at no charge. You didn't even need to get out of your car.

this was fairly early on in the pandemic, I think tests were more scarce then. but still... they had some... and if someone is presenting with no taste and feeling ill... they probably shouldn't let you in part of the hospital that positive covid was not allowed in, to be extra cautious even if they believed it was something else... but that's just my two cents.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Oh look, just on schedule. The states with crappy vaccination rates are beginning to see rises in COVID19 cases. Arkansas has 36% vaccinated, Missouri is 39.4% vaccinated.

 

[Xzibit]

We are at 50% fully vax much higher than those 2 and we had a higher increase 30% with 34% increase in hospitalizations in the past 2 weeks. Delta variant making up 36% of those. One county reported Delta being 50% of new infections, previous month it only accounted for 5%.

States been tracking all these in the population.
B.1.1.7
B.1.351
P.1
B.1.617.2 incl. B.1.617.2.1 (AY.1) & B.1.617.2.2 (AY.2)
B.1.427 & B.1.429
P.2
B.1.525
B.1.526
B.1.617.1
B.1.617.3

With Delta getting the most news coverage but Epsilon accounting for more infections then all variants combined but not much coverage until recently. Mainly cause it hit hard in Winter were Delta is rising in Summer.

 

[the54thvoid]

Oh, to be sure, Delta loves a party and places where people are mixing (inside - houses, transport, etc) are seeing massive community transmission. The UK is still presssing on toward opening up, despite the huge rise in cases (some hospitals up north are in code black - full). If we weren't so fast with the vaccination roll-out, we'd be in deep do-do. At the moment, the crap's just about tickling our toes. I'm double vaxxed with Pfizer so I'm not concerned.

 

[Space Lynx]

Oh, to be sure, Delta loves a party and places where people are mixing (inside - houses, transport, etc) are seeing massive community transmission. The UK is still presssing on toward opening up, despite the huge rise in cases (some hospitals up north are in code black - full). If we weren't so fast with the vaccination roll-out, we'd be in deep do-do. At the moment, the crap's just about tickling our toes. I'm double vaxxed with Pfizer so I'm not concerned.

I think that is why they are re-opening back up though, they know most are vaxxed and life has to go on at some point.

 

[Xzibit]

AP: Pfizer to seek OK for 3rd vaccine dose; shots still protect​

In August, Pfizer plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization of a third dose, he said.

 

[Space Lynx]

AP: Pfizer to seek OK for 3rd vaccine dose; shots still protect​

ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES BOYS YOUR NOT DONE YET LOL

 

[64K]

I read something on this a while back. I'm sure the boost in immunity will be welcome but I wonder at what point it will cause health problems to keep taking more and more vaccine.