Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Xzibit]

From: Israel Ministry Of Health

*Hebrew translation - Corona infections among fully vaccinated

 

[Space Lynx]

A good credible source summerizing currently known information, answering your questions about Delta variant of CoVID-19

Source for the video, notice quite a few are publication pre-prints without peer review, so credibility remains to be checked after peer review process. I mainly took the scientific journals instead of news outlets.

COVID vaccine boosters: the most important questions

Concerns over waning immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants have convinced some countries to deploy extra vaccine doses — but it’s not clear to scientists whether most people need them.

www.nature.com

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 4 August 2021

www.who.int

COVID-19 Virtual Press conference transcript - 25 June 2021

TJ Tarik Jasarevic TAG Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus TF Amb Toni Frisch MS Dr Mariângela Simão SS Dr Soumya Swaminathan MR Dr Michael Ryan BA Dr Bruce Aylward MK Dr Maria Van Kerkhove PP Priti Patnaik BG Belisa Godinho WS Will Stone IF Imogen Foulkes DK Dawn Kopecki RM Robin Millard PA Paulina...

www.who.int

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/373/bmj.n1631.full.pdf

Infectivity and immune escape of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest Lambda

Background The newly described SARS-CoV-2 lineage C.37 was recently classified as a variant of interest by the WHO (Lambda variant) based on its high circulation rates in South American countries and the presence of critical mutations in the spike protein. The impact of such mutations in...

www.medrxiv.org

Shedding of Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Despite Vaccination when the Delta Variant is Prevalent - Wisconsin, July 2021

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and its sublineages (B.1.617.2, AY.1, AY.2, AY.3; [[1][1]]) can cause high viral loads, are highly transmissible, and contain mutations that confer partial immune escape [[2][2],[3][3]]. Using PCR threshold cycle (Ct) data from a single large contract laboratory, we...

www.medrxiv.org

How the Delta variant achieves its ultrafast spread

Viral load is roughly 1,000 times higher in people infected with the Delta variant than those infected with the original coronavirus strain, according to a study in China.

www.nature.com

How Dangerous Is the Delta Variant (B.1.617.2)? | ASM.org

Delta has quickly become the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in over a dozen countries around the world. How contagious and deadly is this variant? Will vaccines remain protective against Delta?

asm.org

Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

We report the first local transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of the quarantined subjects indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR+...

www.medrxiv.org

Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

We report the first local transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of the quarantined subjects indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR+...

www.medrxiv.org

SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 Delta variant emergence and vaccine breakthrough

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant was first identified in the state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and has spread throughout India, displacing the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant and other pre-existing lineages. Mathematical modelling indicates that the growth advantage is most likely explained by a ...

www.researchsquare.com

For Science related news, I highly recommend you bookmark Nature, American Society for Microbiology and Science Magazine. Their news section have at least the same scientific trained researchers filter out false information.

Nature

Nature

Nature is the foremost international weekly scientific journal in the world and is the flagship journal for Nature Portfolio. It publishes the finest ...

www.nature.com

Science Magazine

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

American Society of Microbiology

American Society for Microbiology

The American Society for Microbiology (ASM) is the oldest and largest single life science membership organization in the world. Membership has grown from 59 scientists in 1899 to more than 32,000 members today, with more than one third located outside the United States. The members represent 26...

asm.org

Are you sure you want me to bookmark nature.com? I linked an article on here that had like 40 smaller studies spread out all over the world, showing previous covid + 1 shot of pfizer was a slam dunk across the board, and verified over and over and over at other labs around the world. Yet, everyone attacked me when I said based on that science I would not get my second shot in the recommended time frame the CDC asks me to. Nature thinks CDC isn't a God, and so do I.

 

[R-T-B]

It's a science journal man. They publish things that may or may not be peer reviewed yet. Linking to it is not a gurantee that the study is the endall. That's not how science works. You don't search your own facts out until you find them either, which honestly, seems to be what you are doing a lot of the time.

 

[Xzibit]

It's a science journal man. They publish things that may or may not be peer reviewed yet. Linking to it is not a gurantee that the study is the endall. That's not how science works. You don't search your own facts out until you find them either, which honestly, seems to be what you are doing a lot of the time.

I think he had an issue with others not being respectful of his viewpoint and how he came to it while providing said material.

A lot of the forums rules have been overlooked due to the nature of this discussion and how society around the world is at the moment. Its been acceptable to shame be hateful to those that don't share your viewpoint. Certain people even get right out demeaning towards others they don't see eye to eye with.

 

[R-T-B]

I think he had an issue with others not being respectful of his viewpoint

The fact is none of us are really qualified to provide viewpoints on this. I for one defer to the general health authorities in hopes that their doctors know more than I can reason out with a google search.

It's a stats thread and not an advice thread for a reason, beside that.

 

[Xzibit]

The fact is none of us are really qualified to provide viewpoints on this. I for one defer to the general health authorities in hopes that their doctors know more than I can reason out with a google search.

It's a stats thread for a reason, beside that.

Just because one is not qualified or that its a stats thread doesn't excuse how one behaves towards others.

 

[R-T-B]

Just because one is not qualified or that its a stats thread doesn't excuse how one behaves towards others.

I didn't say it did. However he has a tendency to jump to conclusions. That is my sole and only point.

 

[the54thvoid]

@lynx29

This study from March (study ran from Dec 20-Feb 21) may be the one you mentioned?

New study finds strong immune response following COVID-19 vaccination

Study led by Sheffield and Oxford Universities finds that 99% of people have robust immune response against COVID-19 after one dose of Pfizer vaccine.

www.gov.uk

Study shows people who have previously had COVID-19 generate stronger T cell and antibody responses following one dose of the Pfizer vaccine

In other words, prior infection plus one dose was better than a single dose, however:

Among individuals who had not had COVID-19 in the past and had received 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, T cell response was as strong as people who had had previous COVID-19 infection and one vaccine dose.

Two Pfizer doses gave as strong a T-cell response as infection plus one jab. I think the reason it's not officially promoted is due to uncertainties about immunity length as others have said.


------


And here is a summary of Scotland's Covid stats (a sample of the UK as a whole). Numbers are the highest peak of each surges 7-day rolling average. The yellow line marks Delta becoming the predominant variant. It also serves to show the effect vaccinations have had on reducing hospitalisations, ICU cases, and deaths. As @Xzibit rightly mentions in his posts, the vaccinations haven't stopped the surge of cases. But, to quote the linked paper above (UK Gov statement of vaccine effectiveness):

An effective vaccine is one that that saves lives and reduces hospitalisations.

 

[HTC]

I just collected a few statistics of TWO periods of 23 days, starting the day after the peak of the 1st wave and starting the day after the peak of this 4th wave to see the impact the vaccination has had, thus far: keep in mind that the 1st wave had the original variant while this 4th wave has the delta variant.

From April 11th 2020 until May 3rd 2020:

- 9810 new cases in total
- 573 fatalities in total
- 1098 daily hospitalized, on average
- 196 daily ICU, on average

From July 22nd 2021 until August 13th 2021:

- 58925 new cases in total
- 289 fatalities in total
- 876 daily hospitalized, on average
- 182 daily ICU, on average

6 times more new cases but 50% fewer fatalities, 20% fewer hospitalized on average and 7% fewer in ICU on average.

EDIT

Damn math mistakes ...

 

[TheLostSwede]

For those that thinks getting vaccinated is enough.

Taiwan records 40 imported COVID cases infected after being vaccinated | Taiwan News | Aug. 14, 2021 17:44

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Tatty_Two]

For those that thinks getting vaccinated is enough.

Taiwan records 40 imported COVID cases infected after being vaccinated | Taiwan News | Aug. 14, 2021 17:44

www.taiwannews.com.tw

I think it's as much about who we let in to our countries, it's fairly common knowledge that most of the vaccines whilst stopping transmission in up to around 70% of people (may vary dependant on variant) they won't stop it all which is why sometimes I fail to see the benefit v risk in opening borders to countries with high infection rates for people double jabbed, apart from economic reasons of course.

 

[TheLostSwede]

I think it's as much about who we let in to our countries, it's fairly common knowledge that most of the vaccines whilst stopping transmission in up to around 70% of people (may vary dependant on variant) they won't stop it all which is why sometimes I fail to see the benefit v risk in opening borders to countries with high infection rates for people double jabbed, apart from economic reasons of course.

Most of the people coming in to Taiwan tends to be returning citizens, most of them from the US.
Take that as you want.

Taiwan reports 4 local COVID cases, 14 imported infections | Taiwan News | Aug. 13, 2021 14:26

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Jacky_BEL]

Our fantastic government in Belgium decided to lift all inbound travel restrictions, since "95% of covid-19 cases in Belgium are now of the delta-variant".

My reaction: so great, this means that we will soon be welcoming the columbian, gamma or whatever variant.
I only hope it will not be more destructive than the variants we have already experienced.
I really don't understand why travel restrictions are not kept in place, especially intercontinental travel.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Our fantastic government in Belgium decided to lift all inbound travel restrictions, since "95% of covid-19 cases in Belgium are now of the delta-variant".

My reaction: so great, this means that we will soon be welcoming the columbian, gamma or whatever variant.
I only hope it will not be more destructive than the variants we have already experienced.
I really don't understand why travel restrictions are not kept in place, especially intercontinental travel.

Because some people are still stuck abroad and want to travel home?
Then again, if you're Australian, you're not welcome home anyhow and you'll have to pay 10x the normal price if you're lucky enough to get a seat on a plane...

But yes, there's really no need for people to go on holiday abroad, yet that seems to be what most travel is these days.

 

[Space Lynx]

Because some people are still stuck abroad and want to travel home?
Then again, if you're Australian, you're not welcome home anyhow and you'll have to pay 10x the normal price if you're lucky enough to get a seat on a plane...

But yes, there's really no need for people to go on holiday abroad, yet that seems to be what most travel is these days.

we went back to normalcy too soon I agree, normalcy at a local level could have been achieved by now, if we had stopped the air travel in full. human hubris knows no bounds.

@lynx29

This study from March (study ran from Dec 20-Feb 21) may be the one you mentioned?

New study finds strong immune response following COVID-19 vaccination

Study led by Sheffield and Oxford Universities finds that 99% of people have robust immune response against COVID-19 after one dose of Pfizer vaccine.

www.gov.uk

In other words, prior infection plus one dose was better than a single dose, however:



Two Pfizer doses gave as strong a T-cell response as infection plus one jab. I think the reason it's not officially promoted is due to uncertainties about immunity length as others have said.


------

previous covid + 1 shot of pfizer - i recall one study showing the exact numbers, basically after two shots of pfizer and no covid you get anywhere from 6k to 15k antibodies per ml of blood. but with previous covid plus 1 shot of pfizer - you get about double the amount, sometimes above 40k even.

and no that is not the study i read, there are about 50+ small studies all over the world, and they all verify each other. I feel safe with one shot. I will be getting my second shot in late september possibly late october, I have not decided yet. and it will act as my booster shot just in time for the inevitable winter surge (especially since my area is back in school now full swing and doesn't wear masks in school)

 

[Caring1]

Because some people are still stuck abroad and want to travel home?
Then again, if you're Australian, you're not welcome home anyhow and you'll have to pay 10x the normal price if you're lucky enough to get a seat on a plane...

IMO most "Australians" stuck overseas are dual nationals that live and work overseas then choose to "return" to Australia as it is seen as safer than other Covid infected countries.
Their country of origin should be taken into consideration for return flights and dual citizenship renounced.
Australia was taking 7 flights a week from India at the peak of Covid initially, mainly Indian citizens with an Australian passport also, this has been reduced to 3 flights a week.
This is how the Delta variant entered the country.

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 45367 active cases --- 434 more --- 62 more per day
- 940406 recovered --- 15839 more --- 2263 more per day
- 17562 fatalities --- 95 more --- 14 more per day
- 1003335 confirmed infected --- 16368 more --- 2338 more per day

- 16112555 tests taken --- 396588 more --- 66098 more per day but was last updated August 13th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 12912040 vaccinated --- 638129 more --- last updated last yesterday but that corresponds to 7379028 1st doses + 5533012 2nd doses
- 744 hospitalized --- 105 less --- 15 less per day
- 157 in ICU --- 27 less --- 4 less per day

Week fatalities decreased slightly VS last week. The R number increased a bit, with it now being 0.95 on average and i'm concerned it may reach 1.0 soon. Roughly 73.4% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 54.8% are fully vaccinated.

New daily cases increased slightly VS last week and Portugal has crossed the 1M cases milestone this Saturday thus becoming the 33rd country to have 1M+ cases. Both hospitalized and ICU numbers have dropped again VS last week.

I thought this was going to happen last week but i was mistaken: Portugal has started to mass vaccinate those aged 16 to 17 in preparation for school: of the roughly 210K people within this age bracket, 180K scheduled their vaccination for this weekend, with 102K having been vaccinated yesterday alone.

Portugal's Health Department (DGS) gave the go ahead for kids aged 12 to 15 (through their parents, obviously) to begin scheduling their vaccination and about 40% of those in this age bracket have done so already: they'll be vaccinated either next weekend or the weekend after that, if all goes according to plan.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Houston man shot 6 times, a week later still waiting for surgery at hospital overwhelmed by COVID-19

EXCLUSIVE: A Houston man continues to wait for surgery at Ben Taub Hospital roughly a week after getting shot six times.

www.fox26houston.com

Houston man shot 6 times last week still waiting for surgery at hospital overwhelmed by COVID-19

This is the shit that happens when your hospital system gets overwhelmed.

According to a spokesperson from the Harris Health System, Ben Taub Hospital is currently operating with an ICU at 98% capacity. We’re told 33% of those patients are COVID-related.

"In response to the increase in COVID-19 cases overwhelming the hospitals of Harris Health System, our medical experts review all surgical cases throughout the day to determine the acuity level and patient’s overall condition," said Amanda Callaway from the Harris Health System. "Due to strained resources, surgical patients are being prioritized based on several factors, which unfortunately may result in a delay of non-emergent surgical procedures. Harris Health and its medical partners are working diligently to provide the best possible care during these difficult times."

 

[Space Lynx]

US expected to recommend vaccine boosters for all Americans amid alarming case surge: Live COVID-19 updates

Biden administration health officials are expected to recommend booster COVID-19 shots for all Americans, regardless of age. The latest COVID news.

www.usatoday.com

ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES BOYS AND GIRLS!!! THIRD JAB INCOMING! 3 jabs a year! get used to it boys!

 

[Ahhzz]

US expected to recommend vaccine boosters for all Americans amid alarming case surge: Live COVID-19 updates

Biden administration health officials are expected to recommend booster COVID-19 shots for all Americans, regardless of age. The latest COVID news.

www.usatoday.com

ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES BOYS AND GIRLS!!! THIRD JAB INCOMING! 3 jabs a year! get used to it boys!

It's too bad people wouldn't take the vaccine because some YouTube/General MD/Politician told them they didn't need it for whatever reason.... Maybe we could have beaten Delta to the punch. Maybe not, but we'll never know, because people.

 

[xkm1948]

Amazing scientific animation explaining the mechanism of action of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine

 

[Space Lynx]

It's too bad people wouldn't take the vaccine because some YouTube/General MD/Politician told them they didn't need it for whatever reason.... Maybe we could have beaten Delta to the punch. Maybe not, but we'll never know, because people.

Your logic on this is wrong. Delta = came from India, they didn't have chance to get the vaccine fast enough anyway, and then combine that with UK being slow to close their borders to India even when they knew Delta was on fire in India. Combine all of that with Delta breaking the vaccine and allowing it to be caught/transmitted even in fully vaccinated and it was game over, regardless or not whether other people in USA had access to vaccine or not. If all of India had access to the vaccine before Delta emerged, your statement would be true.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Your logic on this is wrong. Delta = came from India, they didn't have chance to get the vaccine fast enough anyway, and then combine that with UK being slow to close their borders to India even when they knew Delta was on fire in India. Combine all of that with Delta breaking the vaccine and allowing it to be caught/transmitted even in fully vaccinated and it was game over, regardless or not whether other people in USA had access to vaccine or not. If all of India had access to the vaccine before Delta emerged, your statement would be true.

California has seen a breakout number of cases of Delta strain, despite being highly vaccinated (though most of the breakout cases are in LA / San Bernardino / southern areas, where vaccinations are lower).

Still, California is doing better than Texas, Florida, or Arkansas. Vaccines slow down the spread of Delta dramatically. That poor soul in the Houston hospital with 6 gunshot wounds probably would have had his surgery by now if it weren't for the huge unvaccinated swaths in Texas.

---------

I ran the calculations in the other thread. Given the efficacy of the vaccines and the transmission rate of Delta, we need 104% of the population (or more) vaccinated for herd immunity to kick in vs Delta. So herd immunity isn't really possible anymore.

Nonetheless, Delta will spread faster in unvaccinated regions and risk overwhelming hospitals. The job now is to vaccinate to reduce the hospitalizations / deaths (90% reduction in hospitalization, 98% reduction in deaths in the vaccinated pool of people)... and probably wait for the booster shots that could bring us back towards herd immunity.

 

[Space Lynx]

Amazing scientific animation explaining the mechanism of action of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine

What are the possibilities that the enzymes needed to alter our human DNA our found in certain foods and other medicines? Sure, those enzymes are not in the mRNA vaccines, as the video states, but what if the timing of someone taking a specific medicine, or a certain probiotic, etc etc endless variables, creates the right concoction of enzymes around sme time that person got the mRNA jab? Asking from a mere science curious perspective more than anything.

California has seen a breakout number of cases of Delta strain, despite being highly vaccinated (though most of the breakout cases are in LA / San Bernardino / southern areas, where vaccinations are lower).

Still, California is doing better than Texas, Florida, or Arkansas. Vaccines slow down the spread of Delta dramatically. That poor soul in the Houston hospital with 6 gunshot wounds probably would have had his surgery by now if it weren't for the huge unvaccinated swaths in Texas.

That wasn't what Ahzz was trying to make a point of, Ahzz was saying it would not even be here, you are taking his proposal and my response out of context. I'm well aware the vaccine helps.

 

[dragontamer5788]

What are the possibilities that the enzymes needed to alter our human DNA our found in certain foods and other medicines? Sure, those enzymes are not in the mRNA vaccines, as the video states, but what if the timing of someone taking a specific medicine, or a certain probiotic, etc etc endless variables, creates the right concoction of enzymes around sme time that person got the mRNA jab? Asking from a mere science curious perspective more than anything.

Generally speaking, our DNA doesn't want to be changed. It does get changed over time (see cancer), but the entire design of DNA is to make it difficult to change. And even then, our immune system is constantly checking on our own cells (and killing cells that have too much DNA damage). This part of our immune system is called "natural killer cells", and they also roam around looking for cells taken over by a virus.

The things that do manage to change our DNA are called carcinogens. There's plenty of them: Smoking, various drugs, Asbestos, UV rays from the sun (UV-A, UV-B), etc. etc. The environment we live in has a large number of carcinogens, but our body still fights off cancer in most cases. (I'm not saying you should start making you next house out of Asbestos or anything, but yeah, our bodies do have some natural defenses against cancer)

DNA doesn't sit in one central place. Every cell in our body has its own copy of DNA relevant for the work it does. To really damage the body, you need to create a cancer, a large enough change to DNA to so many cells such that those cells consume resources and multiply exponentially. If you do "simple everyday DNA damage", our immune system will selectively kill those damaged cells before they take over our body.

The difference with that and end-stage cancer cells is that end-stage cancer cells have reproduced so much that our body's immune system has no hope of killing off the cancer cells anymore. When cancer gets to this point, we hope that we can just go in with a scalpel (or radiation) and have the doctor kill off the cancer through brute force, but that only works if the cancer remains isolated in one spot. If the cancer cells / DNA damage overtakes the body, then there's not much we can do at that point.

-------------

IIRC, even things as simple as a banana can be a carcinogen. There's a decent amount of radiation coming out of that potassium that's all over the banana, and that radiation can do DNA damage. But the chances of the low-radiation amounts coming off of bananas actually causing a lasting cancer are miniscule to none (its not like Chernobyl lol) . So if I were to guess, everything is a carcinogen. The question is if someone crosses the threshold of "enough of a carcinogen" or "enough DNA damage" to actually cause a problem.