Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[the54thvoid]

If you ever come across any new data that says those who got pfizer can get a moderna shot for their third or second shot, let me know. I'm leaning towards getting a Moderna shot for my "second shot" but is effectively my third booster based on the science... since i previously had covid and first shot acted as my second shot.

We dont have that choice in UK. You get what you're given. Like kids at dinnertime.

That means we'll have no research on that as numbers will be low and/or difficult to gather for study data.

 

[Xzibit]

Your not going to like what US just said then.

Starting Oct 1, Boosters will be made available to all people. People who've had there 2nd shot will need a 3rd shot 8 months apart.

You might not be considered fully immunized even having only 2 shots come Oct 1

 

[Space Lynx]

Your not going to like what US just said then.

Starting Oct 1, Boosters will be made available to all people. People who've had there 2nd shot will need a 3rd shot 8 months apart.

You might not be considered fully immunized even having only 2 shots come Oct 1

It's good news for me, it means when I get my second shot, I will be good to go for at least 8 months. I'm going to try to time it so I don't need my third shot until around June of 2022 - but even then I will probably hold off on it until middle of August 2022 - so I will be peak protection right when the 2022 school year starts and heading into winter.

I'm still sticking to one shot a year thing no matter what they say, unless my job requires it. But my job was remote even before Covid existed, so I should be good to go even if I decide to pass on all future shots. I haven't really decided yet. It all depends if I can get full time remote or not, for now I am just part time. If I get full time, I may cancel my travel plans, buy me a little log cabin on outskirts of some small town, adopt two dogs, and just go kayaking solo and enjoy the peaceful life solo. This whole idea we have to grind our entire life and sit in 2 hour traffic is nonsense, life is way to short for that. Hell, even if I don't go full time I may do my plan anyway, Instead of owning a car I will just own a cheap motorcycle and bundle up extra good when winter hits, LOL instead of owning decent sized log cabin I will do a one room only log cabin. life is what you make of it. YOLO

 

[dragontamer5788]

Data is ever changing of course. You personally might be aware of it but even our highest officials aren't relaying a clear message.

What's unclear about it?

Death-effectiveness, and Hospitalization effectiveness was 100% from the trials. Literally no one in the 30,000-person tests for Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J died or got hospitalized.

It was an incredible result from an incredible trial. Your quote right there even makes it clear that it was hospitalization effectiveness and death effectiveness being measured.

Now that the vaccine has been out for hundreds-of-millions of individuals, we now know that the death-efficacy is closer to 98% effective and not 100%. We also now know that Pfizer seems to be losing effectiveness the soonest (causing this whole "Booster" shot discussion to start up).

 

[Xzibit]

From: CDC

 

[TheLostSwede]

Supposedly only one new local case, but six cases in total and five deaths...

Taiwan reports 1 local COVID case, 5 deaths | Taiwan News | Aug. 19, 2021 14:21

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[xkm1948]

Most up to date primary literature review on the origins of CoVID-19 from Cell, one of the most prestigious publishing body. Authors are some of the world top experts on molecular genetics and viral genetics. This is a review. I would HIGHLY recommend you read it yourself entirely. I don't want to make a TL;DR as a review is already a TL;DR of the research paper it combed through.

Here is the link for the paper

The origins of SARS-CoV-2: A critical review

A review of the current literature supports a zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-2 and emphasizes the need to focus on identifying the exact animal host through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies. This will enable the community to understand the roots of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as...

www.cell.com

PDF is also linked

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published last Monday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 45465 active cases --- 98 more --- 14 more per day
- 956316 recovered --- 15910 more --- 2273 more per day
- 17639 fatalities --- 77 more --- 11 more per day
- 1019420 confirmed infected --- 16085 more --- 2298 more per day

- 16496290 tests taken --- 383735 more --- 54819 more per day but was last updated August 20th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 708 hospitalized --- 36 less --- 5 less per day
- 152 in ICU --- 5 less --- 1 less per day

Week fatalities decreased noticeably VS last week, with 3 consecutive days having single digit fatalities. The R number increased a bit more, with it now being 0.98 on average and it's edging ever closer to 1.0, with a slightly rising tendency. New daily cases decreased slightly VS last week. Both hospitalized and ICU numbers have dropped again VS last week, but the difference is also very slight.

This weekend Portugal interrupted regular scheduled vaccination again in order to vaccinate youngsters aged 12 to 15: roughly 150K have received their 1st dose already with the vast majority of those being yesterday. Next weekend we'll do the same to try and complete this age bracket, or @ least vaccinate the vast majority.

I'm stopping the report on vaccinations because of conflicting data. In the pics above, updated today, Portugal has administered 13506039 vaccines, of which 7851755 were 1st doses and 5654284 were doses to complete the vaccination (either 2nd dose or single dose, depending on the vaccine).

However, and according to our weekly vaccination report published on August 15th (click for full picture):



Portugal has administered 14093439 vaccines, of which 7791486 were 1st doses and 6760777 were doses to complete the vaccination (either 2nd dose or single dose, depending on the vaccine): almost 460K more vaccines administered 7 days ago than today??????

This discrepancy has been increasing and Portugal seems to be referring to the stats on this page in the news, which is why i'm stopping the report about the vaccination i had been doing up to now. Portugal claimed Friday to have reached 70% population fully vaccinated, and today said it has now the 3rd highest full vaccination rate in the World.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Dropping into single-digits %rise-per-week. +8% in USA last week.

Hospitalizations +10% from last week.

To the foreigners out there: Florida is very famous for hosting tax-favorable retirement communities. Florida almost certainly has the worst hospitalizations because they got the most old people.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Deaths finally beginning to kick in.

Florida sitting there with +600% growth in deaths over last week. As I stated before: exponential rises in cases leads to exponential rises in hospitalizations... and eventually exponential rises in deaths.

COVID19 surge continues. Despite being inflected down, we haven't reached the peak yet for this country. Expect these hospitalizations and deaths to continue for at least another month after the case# peak.

Its too late for the vaccine to save anyone for this surge. But I still strongly suggest getting the vaccine to prepare for the winter-surge. I remember the "summer surge" from 2020, and everyone thought the worst was over... only to realize that this thing is way more dangerous in the winter. With enough vaccinations, we can minimize the damage come December / January / February.

 

[Space Lynx]

Deaths finally beginning to kick in.

View attachment 214326

Florida sitting there with +600% growth in deaths over last week. As I stated before: exponential rises in cases leads to exponential rises in hospitalizations... and eventually exponential rises in deaths.

COVID19 surge continues. Despite being inflected down, we haven't reached the peak yet for this country. Expect these hospitalizations and deaths to continue for at least another month after the case# peak.

Its too late for the vaccine to save anyone for this surge. But I still strongly suggest getting the vaccine to prepare for the winter-surge. I remember the "summer surge" from 2020, and everyone thought the worst was over... only to realize that this thing is way more dangerous in the winter. With enough vaccinations, we can minimize the damage come December / January / February.

Florida had 9 deaths yesterday from Covid. I find the 600% number very confusing.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Funny they went to paying people to get the jabs lol
Terrible model.

 

[Space Lynx]

Hi,
Funny they went to paying people to get the jabs lol
Terrible model.

It's simply out of desperation, one of my cousins just got the vaccine yesterday and did it for no money. I think enough overflowing hospitals over 18 month period of multiple surges was finally enough to convince her.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Florida had 9 deaths yesterday from Covid. I find the 600% number very confusing.

The data source is John's Hopkins University. A non-governmental group, they're a research university. I'm not sure how they gather their data, but people seem to trust them. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/about

But when you have multiple groups counting deaths, you'll end up with inconsistencies. Its just the nature of modern "science", it turns out that different scientists have different points of view and there's less consensus than you'd like to imagine. That being said: WashPo has consistently used John Hopkin's COVID19 numbers.

The highest quality numbers are likely to come from the CDC mortality department. But it takes over a year for those statistics to be gathered. Needless to say, being a year late on this data is not very helpful. As such, we're putting up with worse / inconsistent death numbers in favor of more rapid reporting. The data will be wrong in subtle ways. There's just not enough time to get daily, or weekly numbers, with high amounts of accuracy. Its the nature of working with cutting-edge numbers before they've been verified.

There's a monthly mortality report from the CDC, that the CDC still considers as "initial data", but likely better than John Hopkin's day-by-day data.

----

Look how slow the CDC official data is: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm?s_cid=mm7034e1_w

Today is August 26th. They're only beginning to report on numbers from June. Delta wasn't even dominant back in June, the data is useless for determining today's policies. As such, those who want to follow this discussion must put up with weaker data sources that move more quickly.

 

[Space Lynx]

The data source is John's Hopkins University. A non-governmental group, they're a research university. I'm not sure how they gather their data, but people seem to trust them. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/about

But when you have multiple groups counting deaths, you'll end up with inconsistencies. Its just the nature of modern "science", it turns out that different scientists have different points of view and there's less consensus than you'd like to imagine. That being said: WashPo has consistently used John Hopkin's COVID19 numbers.

The highest quality numbers are likely to come from the CDC mortality department. But it takes over a year for those statistics to be gathered. Needless to say, being a year late on this data is not very helpful. As such, we're putting up with worse / inconsistent death numbers in favor of more rapid reporting. The data will be wrong in subtle ways. There's just not enough time to get daily, or weekly numbers, with high amounts of accuracy. Its the nature of working with cutting-edge numbers before they've been verified.

There's a monthly mortality report from the CDC, that the CDC still considers as "initial data", but likely better than John Hopkin's day-by-day data.

----

Look how slow the CDC official data is: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm?s_cid=mm7034e1_w

Today is August 26th. They're only beginning to report on numbers from June. Delta wasn't even dominant back in June, the data is useless for determining today's policies. As such, those who want to follow this discussion must put up with weaker data sources that move more quickly.

if you really want your argumentation on data and science to hit home, research how many nurses quit since covid started. those are the numbers i'd like to see. I think Mississippi alone had 2000 nurses quit since pandemic started and their hospitals are basically completely broken because lack of help and overwhelmed/stress burnout from the ones that did stay.

but yeah, the actual possibility of burnout and career changes being big enough they might change healthcare entirely... scary future ahead unless 100% vaccination and a new booster shot every 6-8 months. and since rest of the world will never be able to do that level of vaccination, even when/if we reach that, we will eventually let our guard down and people traveling from other countries will have a new mutation and so on and so forth and it will never end.

mRNA might be highly overrated the more we are learning how quickly it fades. 6 months is not long enough for this particular virus. you won't be able to convince the majority to get a new shot every 6 months, you might for a year or so, but that's about it.

they need to invest more heavily in the "flonase" like delivery vaccines that are still stuck in stage 1 trials. we don't have time to wait, people hate needles. this is the only way forward, they need to figure it out, and Congress lack of funding in pushing it is a huge mistake long term. but I guess people love lockdowns and losing trillions of dollars, so eh.

 

[Tatty_Two]

if you really want your argumentation on data and science to hit home, research how many nurses quit since covid started. those are the numbers i'd like to see. I think Mississippi alone had 2000 nurses quit since pandemic started and their hospitals are basically completely broken because lack of help and overwhelmed/stress burnout from the ones that did stay.

but yeah, the actual possibility of burnout and career changes being big enough they might change healthcare entirely... scary future ahead unless 100% vaccination and a new booster shot every 6-8 months. and since rest of the world will never be able to do that level of vaccination, even when/if we reach that, we will eventually let our guard down and people traveling from other countries will have a new mutation and so on and so forth and it will never end.

mRNA might be highly overrated the more we are learning how quickly it fades. 6 months is not long enough for this particular virus. you won't be able to convince the majority to get a new shot every 6 months, you might for a year or so, but that's about it.

they need to invest more heavily in the "flonase" like delivery vaccines that are still stuck in stage 1 trials. we don't have time to wait, people hate needles. this is the only way forward, they need to figure it out, and Congress lack of funding in pushing it is a huge mistake long term. but I guess people love lockdowns and losing trillions of dollars, so eh.

The research released this week in the UK was with the Pfizer and AZ vaccines, it involved 1.2 million vaccinated people and evidenced that there was around a 10 - 15% reduction in efficacy at the 5 month point (AZ) and the 6 month point (PZ), but this relates only to infection and transmission, not severe illness and death.

 

[Space Lynx]

The research released this week in the UK was with the Pfizer and AZ vaccines, it involved 1.2 million vaccinated people and evidenced that there was around a 10 - 15% reduction in efficacy at the 5 month point (AZ) and the 6 month point (PZ), but this relates only to infection and transmission, not severe illness and death.

indeed, hopefully it ends up being we only need one shot every 12 months not 8 months. i still think 8 months will be to hard to convince, and I still think the "flonase" based vaccines are the future, they just make a lot of sense. let's hope they get those working regardless.

 

[Ahhzz]

indeed, hopefully it ends up being we only need one shot every 12 months not 8 months. i still think 8 months will be to hard to convince, and I still think the "flonase" based vaccines are the future, they just make a lot of sense. let's hope they get those working regardless.

I think the problem is, too many people still discount the virus as a hoax, so it really doesn't matter how you present the protection, they don't "need" protection against a lie.

 

[Xzibit]

From: Public Health England

Additional since last report

UnVaccinated
Cases: 32,079
Deaths: 137
0.43%

Vaccinated
Cases: 26,364
Deaths: 277
1.051%

 

[R-T-B]

I think the problem is, too many people still discount the virus as a hoax, so it really doesn't matter how you present the protection, they don't "need" protection against a lie.

That sadly is indeed still a big issue.

 

[R-T-B]

From: Public Heath England
View attachment 214331

Additional since last report

UnVaccinated
Cases: 32,079
Deaths: 137
0.43%

Vaccinated
Cases: 26,364
Deaths: 277
1.051%

It makes sense. If you end up in the hospital while vaccinated, it's obvious covid is kicking your ass, hard, ie you are inherently vulnerable to it. It'd likely be far worse for that same group were they not vaccinated at all.

 

[Space Lynx]

New Study Confirms It's Much Safer to Get Vaccinated Than to Catch Covid-19

In real-world data from Israel, adverse events like heart inflammation were much more common in infected people than those vaccinated with the Pfizer shot.

gizmodo.com

Does anyone know why the swelling of the lymph nodes after vaccine in the chart in that article is considered bad? I thought that was normal for when the body is fighting off infection / creating antibodies. Other than that, the article confirms what we already know, get the vaccine. So yeah. I'm looking at September 1st for my second shot, then May 1st for my third shot. Easy to remember this way. I should be peak immunity all winter.

 

[Xzibit]

It makes sense. If you end up in the hospital while vaccinated, it's obvious covid is kicking your ass, hard, ie you are inherently vulnerable to it. It'd likely be far worse for that same group were they not vaccinated at all.

Maybe, Looking at the overnight stay numbers to deaths

Vaccinated
e 55%
i 30.81%
Combined - 19.74%

UnVaccinated
e 17,2%
i 9.68%
Combined - 6.19%

 

[Final_Fighter]

Maybe, Looking at the overnight stay numbers to deaths

Vaccinated
e 55%
i 30.81%
Combined - 19.74%

UnVaccinated
e 17,2%
i 9.68%
Combined - 6.19%

just saw this Study and thought it may have something to do with those numbers.

 

[R-T-B]

just saw this Study and thought it may have something to do with those numbers.

Unherd.com kinda initially struck me as a name for some right wing conspiracy site, but just for the record, the outlet appears mostly legit, some sort of offshoot of The Independent for "unheard" issues:

UnHerd - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I'm still skeptical of the studies claims as naturally immunity has been shown to only work against the variant you caught, ie, not all of them. That makes it inherently less suitable even if the above were true.

And even if the study is right, you can be sure it's conclusions will be misused by anti-vaxxer types who wrote their own conclusions above the vaccine long ago.