Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[dragontamer5788]

I'd post the Scottish graph for cases but I only have a 1440p vertical resolution. But seriously, our cases are phenomonally high but we're mostly shrugging our shoulders and watching the 'relatively' low hospitalisations and deaths.

It looks like ~4000 cases/day leads to ~100 hospitalizations?

Which seems fine, at least by standards of my state (we probably can afford ~2000 COVID19 hospitalizations or so), and it seems like we have similar populations. But we only really got there when we started using student nurses + all sorts of emergency measures. Maybe 1500-hospitalizations per 6-million is the point where doctors / nurses started to get stressed (remember: hospitalizations are "sticky" and will hang around for around a month if you ever get there).

"Stressed" as in, we start to take in emergency measures. Cancellation of less important care, use of student nurses to handle shifts, and other such measures.

Meanwhile...

It looks like we've hit a peak over here at around 1000 cases/day and 700 hospitalizations. Hopefully this peak "sticks" and we continue to decline.

We're doing 25,000+ tests per day and under 5% positive. So I still trust our case# (though our case# might be an underestimate since 5% positive is the cutoff point decided for when tests start to undercount cases). We are at 3.7-million fully vaccinated (out of 6-million total residents), so ~61% fully vaccinated. So there is a substantial gap in vaccination status compared to Scotland, which may explain the difference in our case vs hospitalization numbers?

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until yesterday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published last Monday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 45659 active cases --- 194 more --- 28 more per day
- 971567 recovered --- 15251 more --- 2179 more per day
- 17721 fatalities --- 82 more --- 11 more per day
- 1034947 confirmed infected --- 15527 more --- 2218 more per day

- 16902587 tests taken --- 406297 more --- 50787 more per day but was last updated August 28th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 698 hospitalized --- 10 less --- 1 less per day
- 148 in ICU --- 4 less --- 1 less per day

Week fatalities increased slightly VS last week. The R number increased a bit more, with it now being 0.99 on average. New daily cases decreased slightly VS last week. Both hospitalized and ICU numbers have dropped again VS last week, but the difference is minimal.

This weekend Portugal interrupted regular scheduled vaccination again in order to vaccinate youngsters aged 12 to 15 (1st dose). Unfortunately, it didn't go as well as we hoped because there were a lot less children vaccinated than we would have liked: as of yesterday, we have vaccinated roughly 50% of those aged 12 to 15. While it certainly contributes to the country's overall vaccination effort, it's still not enough.

 

[Space Lynx]

New COVID variant detected in South Africa, most mutated variant so far

The C.1.2 variant first detected in South Africa is more mutated compared to the original virus than any other known variant.

www.jpost.com

new variant detected, its already spread to several countries apparently. most mutated version of covid they have seen yet.

 

[Tatty_Two]

New COVID variant detected in South Africa, most mutated variant so far

The C.1.2 variant first detected in South Africa is more mutated compared to the original virus than any other known variant.

www.jpost.com

new variant detected, its already spread to several countries apparently. most mutated version of covid they have seen yet.

Yeah it's been around for 3-4 months and apparently is in the UK as well as other countries, if it really did originate in South Africa it is likely to have come from another country to get to us as South Africa has been red listed for ages, it also seems that the EU has placed further travel restrictions on 6 countries due to high infection rates including the US.

 

[dragontamer5788]

New COVID variant detected in South Africa, most mutated variant so far

The C.1.2 variant first detected in South Africa is more mutated compared to the original virus than any other known variant.

www.jpost.com

new variant detected, its already spread to several countries apparently. most mutated version of covid they have seen yet.

The important question: can it outcompete Delta?

It doesn't matter how many mutations it has. Only if those mutations are "better" than the current dominant virus (Alpha or Delta) will it become an issue. There was this huge hype going on for Gamma and Lambda months ago, and neither variant became relevant (well, outside of the geography where they first appeared).

EDIT: Secondly, there's also a good chance that "it doesn't matter". In that our plan to fight against C.1.2 is probably the same as fighting vs Delta or Alpha or the original COVID19. Vaccine up, mask up, and hope for the best. Even if C.1.2 outcompetes Delta and becomes dominant, it probably changes nothing from a planning or policy perspective.

 

[Space Lynx]

New Zealand reports first death linked to Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine

New Zealand reported its first recorded death linked to the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the health ministry said on Monday, after a woman suffered a rare heart muscle inflammation side effect.

www.reuters.com

Hmm.

 

[LFaWolf]

New Zealand reports first death linked to Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine

New Zealand reported its first recorded death linked to the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the health ministry said on Monday, after a woman suffered a rare heart muscle inflammation side effect.

www.reuters.com

Hmm.

Not surprising, as no drugs or vaccines are completely safe. Some will die from vaccine, regardless how safe it is claimed to be. Actually, considered how many have taken the vaccine and only 1 death (if confirmed) so far, I will still take my chance I did have an very severe reaction to my second Moderna shot (chill, fever, back pain, for 3 days).

A study here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4599698/

 

[Space Lynx]

Not surprising, as no drugs or vaccines are completely safe. Some will die from vaccine, regardless how safe it is claimed to be. Actually, considered how many have taken the vaccine and only 1 death (if confirmed) so far, I will still take my chance I did have an very severe reaction to my second Moderna shot (chill, fever, back pain, for 3 days).

A study here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4599698/

I'm not saying anything against it or for it, just sharing the new info.

 

[the54thvoid]

@lynx29 - Don't you think it's about time you stopped reacting to every vaccine death?

You see one death from 'goodness knows how many million' shots and make it a thing. It's ridiculous. You get 11 automobile deaths per 100,000 in the US - you going to stop using cars and buses? 480,000 annual deaths from smoking. 95,000 annual alcohol deaths. 93,000 annual drug overdose deaths.

I'm using US stats because that's where you are. You need to stop making these pointless remarks about a vaccine death. In the UK, the estimates for deaths prevented by vaccine are 100,000.

Yes, people have had fatal reactions to vaccines but similarly, people can die from a wasp sting. About 20 people annualy in the UK die from anaphilaxys. Life kills. You make a choice here, take the vaccine risk, or the covid risk. You've already established you're on good grounds with vaccine plus covid infection. So why keep making noises? I genuinely don't understand your issue. I literally found out today that my wife's best friends husband has just lost his 17yr old son to a car accident. Far more folk die from car use than vaccines. And vaccines saves lives to boot.

 

[Space Lynx]

I'm not saying anything against it or for it, just sharing the new info.

@lynx29 - Don't you think it's about time you stopped reacting to every vaccine death?

You see one death from 'goodness knows how many million' shots and make it a thing. It's ridiculous. You get 11 automobile deaths per 100,000 in the US - you going to stop using cars and buses? 480,000 annual deaths from smoking. 95,000 annual alcohol deaths. 93,000 annual drug overdose deaths.

I'm using US stats because that's where you are. You need to stop making these pointless remarks about a vaccine death. In the UK, the estimates for deaths prevented by vaccine are 120,000.

Yes, people have had fatal reactions to vaccines but similarly, people can die from a wasp sting. About 20 people annualy in the UK die from anaphilaxys. Life kills. You make a choice here, take the vaccine risk, or the covid risk. You've already established you're on good grounds with vaccine plus covid infection. So why keep making noises? I genuinely don't understand your issue. I literally found out today that my wife's best friends husband has just lost his 17yr old son to a car accident. Far more folk die from car use than vaccines. And vaccines saves lives to boot.

umm... people are not allowed to read new data about Covid now? an interesting development to be sure... very well then. farewell.

 

[the54thvoid]

umm... people are not allowed to read new data about Covid now? an interesting development to be sure... very well then. farewell.

You can read new data all you want but how you react to it is pretty predictable. And you post it as if it's news. It's not.

Heres the US data:

The risk of myocarditis was 18.5 per million doses given among people aged 18 to 24 after their second Pfizer dose and 20.2 per million for that age group among Moderna second dose recipients. The risk decreases with age, according to the CDC analysis based on its national reporting system.

There have been no U.S. deaths reported for young adults who developed myocarditis after being given the mRNA vaccines, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Monday.

Separately, it also said that a total of 2,574 U.S. cases of myocarditis or pericarditis had been reported. More than 330 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have been administered in the United States.

That's one in 128,000 for cases - not even deaths.

 

[LFaWolf]

I personally find that it is okay post the risk or death from the vaccine, as long as the piece is confirmed by health or gov authority. Although I read about the same news from Bloomberg this morning, People may be interested to know the side effects or in the most severe cases, death can be expected.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I personally find that it is okay post the risk or death from the vaccine, as long as the piece is confirmed by health or gov authority. People may be interested to know the side effects or in the most severe cases, death can be expected.

Its just the trolley problem over and over again.

A trolley is moving to kill 10 people right now. Do you hit the switch (killing 1 person on the other side) ? Well, yes. In the absence of any further data, "hitting the button" and killing the one person is better than doing nothing and letting 10 people die.

So do you push vaccines? A disease is poised to kill hundreds-of-thousands of people per year, and a vaccine exists that can erase 98% of those deaths (saving hundreds-of-thousands of lives). However, the vaccine injures or kills some number of ~1-in-a-million deaths of someone unrelated. By pushing vaccines, you kill those 1-in-a-million people, but save the lives of hundreds-of-thousands.

The politics just become funny because as long as you don't touch the switch, you're not responsible for the deaths of either side. That's why I take to a particular argumentative stance. Those who wish for a hands-off policy are pretending that they're unrelated to the switch and want to wash their hands of it. You gotta get the discussion framed in a certain manner if you actually want people to agree with you to "hit the switch, killing the one person" in the trolley problem.

 

[LFaWolf]

Its just the trolley problem over and over again.

A trolley is moving to kill 10 people right now. Do you hit the switch (killing 1 person on the other side) ? Well, yes. In the absence of any further data, "hitting the button" and killing the one person is better than doing nothing and letting 10 people die.

So do you push vaccines? A disease is poised to kill hundreds-of-thousands of people per year, and a vaccine exists that can erase 98% of those deaths (saving hundreds-of-thousands of lives). However, the vaccine injures or kills some number of ~1-in-a-million deaths of someone unrelated. By pushing vaccines, you kill those 1-in-a-million people, but save the lives of hundreds-of-thousands.

The politics just become funny because as long as you don't touch the switch, you're not responsible for the deaths of either side. That's why I take to a particular argumentative stance. Those who wish for a hands-off policy are pretending that they're unrelated to the switch and want to wash their hands of it. You gotta get the discussion framed in a certain manner if you actually want people to agree with you to "hit the switch, killing the one person" in the trolley problem.

Funny, wife and I were just discussing the trolley problem during the weekend. Did the exercise during undergrad logic and ethics class, and had to do it again during MBA ethics class. We both agreed it is the stupidest and most pointless problem presented in college.

 

[ThrashZone]

@lynx29 - Don't you think it's about time you stopped reacting to every vaccine death?

You see one death from 'goodness knows how many million' shots and make it a thing. It's ridiculous. You get 11 automobile deaths per 100,000 in the US - you going to stop using cars and buses? 480,000 annual deaths from smoking. 95,000 annual alcohol deaths. 93,000 annual drug overdose deaths.

I'm using US stats because that's where you are. You need to stop making these pointless remarks about a vaccine death. In the UK, the estimates for deaths prevented by vaccine are 100,000.

Yes, people have had fatal reactions to vaccines but similarly, people can die from a wasp sting. About 20 people annualy in the UK die from anaphilaxys. Life kills. You make a choice here, take the vaccine risk, or the covid risk. You've already established you're on good grounds with vaccine plus covid infection. So why keep making noises? I genuinely don't understand your issue. I literally found out today that my wife's best friends husband has just lost his 17yr old son to a car accident. Far more folk die from car use than vaccines. And vaccines saves lives to boot.

Hi,
Like to see it somewhere mainstream media has blinders.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Funny, wife and I were just discussing the trolley problem during the weekend. Did the exercise during undergrad logic and ethics class, and had to do it again during MBA ethics class. We both agreed it is the stupidest and most pointless problem presented in college.

I too thought it was a stupid problem until this past year, where so many people are opting for the "kill 10 people" side of this COVID19 trolley problem.

Then I realized the trolley problem was not about ethics. It was about the politics of ethics. How could someone possibly decide that doing nothing and seeing 10 people die was better than doing something and killing 1 person? The problem itself offers an obvious solution as part of its framing. It only becomes a debate because of how our group dynamics and group politics work.

Even if we all agree that the button should be pushed, people don't want to accept responsibility, which is fine. Politically speaking, the expedient approach is to wait for a responsible person to push the button, then blame the button-pusher for problems down the road.

 

[Caring1]

New Zealand reports first death linked to Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine

New Zealand reported its first recorded death linked to the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the health ministry said on Monday, after a woman suffered a rare heart muscle inflammation side effect.

www.reuters.com

Hmm.

I suspect the vaccine triggers an already existing genetic predisposition to the condition.
Anything can trigger it, even stress or other viral factors.

 

[Space Lynx]

I suspect the vaccine triggers an already existing genetic predisposition to the condition.
Anything can trigger it, even stress or other viral factors.

I still think nasal based vaccines should be the future. Not sure what is taking Stage 1 trials so long. My guess is Moderna and Pfizer have an active monetary interest in making sure the nasal based vaccines don't progress forward, but who knows.

Nasal basaed vaccines could end this pandemic overnight if they figure it out and get it approved, so many people simply refuse needles...

 

[claes]

Nasal basaed vaccines could end this pandemic overnight if they figure it out and get it approved, so many people simply refuse needles...

They really wouldn’t. Anti-Vaxers aren’t going to change their minds just because it’s a new medium/older technology, and there’d still be the issues of global production and distribution, vaccine inequity etc

 

[MxPhenom 216]

It makes sense. If you end up in the hospital while vaccinated, it's obvious covid is kicking your ass, hard, ie you are inherently vulnerable to it. It'd likely be far worse for that same group were they not vaccinated at all.

How can you get much worst than dying from it, vaccinated or not?

 

[R-T-B]

How can you get much worst than dying from it, vaccinated or not?

I... ok have your point. That is kinda hard to rebuke.

 

[Space Lynx]

They really wouldn’t. Anti-Vaxers aren’t going to change their minds just because it’s a new medium/older technology, and there’d still be the issues of global production and distribution, vaccine inequity etc

Well I didn't mean universally, but it's common sense that most people would be more open minded to a quick nasal sniff versus a needle. Especially since early results show the nasal vaccines create an antibody that stops covid in its tracks better than needle based antibodies. Too tired to look up source on it. Gnite mates

 

[Ahhzz]

Well I didn't mean universally, but it's common sense that most people would be more open minded to a quick nasal sniff versus a needle. Especially since early results show the nasal vaccines create an antibody that stops covid in its tracks better than needle based antibodies. Too tired to look up source on it. Gnite mates

I really gotta disagree here, man. I think anyone who doesn't accept that the virus is real and that the vaccine is needful, isn't going to care how it's presented. I seriously doubt there's anyone left alive out there who thinks "Man, I know the virus and stuff, and it's killing people... but I don't like needles, so no thanks. I'll take my chances on getting put in the hospital and being treated like a voodoo doll rather than take a single needle"...

 

[Space Lynx]

I really gotta disagree here, man. I think anyone who doesn't accept that the virus is real and that the vaccine is needful, isn't going to care how it's presented. I seriously doubt there's anyone left alive out there who thinks "Man, I know the virus and stuff, and it's killing people... but I don't like needles, so no thanks. I'll take my chances on getting put in the hospital and being treated like a voodoo doll rather than take a single needle"...

Well I still haven't got my second shot yet. If you told me next week I could do a nasal vaccine in place of it, I would have 0 hesitation. mRNA scares crap out of me, I only did it out of FEAR of death. I still think 1 shot plus previous covid is enough for me, at least until 8 months after my first shot anyway.

but yeah I would be more willing to do the nasal vaccine right now instead of waiting - if it were available to me.

 

[Xzibit]

I really gotta disagree here, man. I think anyone who doesn't accept that the virus is real and that the vaccine is needful, isn't going to care how it's presented. I seriously doubt there's anyone left alive out there who thinks "Man, I know the virus and stuff, and it's killing people... but I don't like needles, so no thanks. I'll take my chances on getting put in the hospital and being treated like a voodoo doll rather than take a single needle"...

I think its a little disingenuous to categorize them as such. A perfect example that is evident in both the UK and US is Health Care worker were still hesitant before the mandates started to kick in.

From: American Nurses Association

It's not like these people weren't seeing the effects first hand. Yet depending on the Health Care Network you had between 60-30% still unvaccinated. Now that the mandates kicked in you have anywhere between 5-18% of nurses shortages across the USA varied by state.