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UMC Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

United Microelectronics Corporation ("UMC" or "The Company"), a leading global semiconductor foundry, today announced its consolidated operating results for the second quarter of 2022. Second quarter consolidated revenue was NT$72.06 billion, increasing 13.6% QoQ from NT$63.42 billion in 1Q22. Compared to a year ago, 2Q22 revenue grew 41.5% YoY from NT$50.91 billion in 2Q21. Consolidated gross margin for 2Q22 reached 46.5%. Net income attributable to the shareholders of the parent was NT$21.33 billion, with earnings per ordinary share of NT$1.74.

Jason Wang, UMC co-president, said, "In the second quarter, we delivered results in line with guidance, thanks to continuous strong demand for UMC's differentiated processes across our end markets. Overall wafer shipments rose 4.3% from the previous quarter, while higher average selling price and a favorable foreign exchange rate lifted second-quarter gross margin to 46.5%. Revenue from our 22/28 nm portfolio increased 29% sequentially, driven by the additional capacity at Fab 12A P5 that came online during the second quarter. We are confident in the long-term growth prospects of our 22/28 nm business, which now represents 22% of UMC's overall wafer revenue, and has demonstrated solid traction for OLED display drivers, image processors, WiFi, and automotive applications. As structural trends drive semiconductor content increase in end devices from smartphones to automobiles, it is our conviction that 28 nm is a long-lasting node that will be important for many existing and emerging applications for years to come."

ASML Reports €5.4 Billion Net Sales and €1.4 Billion Net Income in Q2 2022

Today ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2022 second-quarter results. Q2 net sales of €5.4 billion, gross margin of 49.1%, net income of €1.4 billion. Record quarterly net bookings in Q2 of €8.5 billion. ASML expects Q3 2022 net sales between €5.1 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 49% and 50%. Expected sales growth for the full year of around 10%.

The value of fast shipments*in 2022 leading to delayed revenue recognition into 2023 is expected to increase from around €1 billion to around €2.8 billion.
"Our second-quarter net sales came in at €5.4 billion with a gross margin of 49.1%. Demand from our customers remains very strong, as reflected by record net bookings in the second quarter of €8.5 billion, including €5.4 billion from 0.33 NA and 0.55 NA EUV systems as well as strong DUV bookings.

Apple Reportedly Captures 90% of Arm PC Revenue Share

With the launch of Apple Silicon for Mac computers, Apple has established itself as a great user of the Arm instruction set. Starting with M1, the company released an entirely new family of products running Apple Silicon. Today, thanks to the research of Strategy Analytics company, we have information that Apple is capturing as much as 90% of the revenue share present in the Arm PC market. The Arm PC market is a tiny subset of the entire PC market, mainly equipped with one-off Windows-on-Arm devices, Chromebook PCs, and Apple Macs. With the naturally low prices of the remaining Arm PCs, Apple Arm PCs offer a relatively high price point and a much more incredible selection of products.

On the global scale, Arm PCs now account for 9% of the total PC market share, where x86 vendors are dominating the field. "Apple's M-series family of processors set the benchmark and gave Apple a 2-3-year lead over the rest of the Arm-based PC processor vendors. Qualcomm captured just 3% revenue share in the Arm-based notebook PC processor market in 2021 and lags Apple in CPU performance," said Sravan Kundojjala, Director of Handset Component Technologies service at Strategy Analytics. This points to a particular case of Apple's better product and feeding the demand with higher-performing processors. Qualcomm's acquisition of Nuvia should yield different results in the coming years, as the new IP is yet to appear in Qualcomm SoCs.

Global Fab Equipment Spending Expected to Reach Record $109B in 2022, SEMI Reports

Global fab equipment spending for front-end facilities is expected to increase 20% year-over-year (YOY) to an all-time high of US$109 billion in 2022, marking a third consecutive year of growth following a 42% surge in 2021, SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report. Fab equipment investment in 2023 is expected to remain strong.

"The global semiconductor equipment industry remains on track to cross the $100 billion threshold for the first time as shown in our latest update of the World Fab Forecast,"said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. "This historic milestone puts an exclamation point on the current run of unprecedented industry growth."

ASML Reports Q1 2022 Financial Results

Our first-quarter net sales came in at €3.5 billion which is at the high end of our guidance. The gross margin of 49.0%, is as guided. Our first-quarter net bookings came in at €7.0 billion, including €2.5 billion from 0.33 NA and 0.55 NA EUV systems as well as very strong DUV bookings, reflecting the continued high demand for advanced and mature nodes.

"We continue to see that the demand for our systems is higher than our current production capacity. We accommodate our customers through offering high-productivity upgrades and reducing cycle time in our factories, and we continue to offer a fast shipment process. In addition, we are actively working to significantly expand capacity together with our supply chain partners. In light of the demand and our plans to increase capacity, we expect to revisit our scenarios for 2025 and growth opportunities beyond. We plan to communicate updates in the second half of the year.

TSMC Reports Record January Revenues

Based on TSMC's official January 2022 revenue report, it looks like the company is set for another great year. Month-on-month revenues are up by 10.8 percent compared to December of last year and year-on-year revenues are up a whopping 35.8 percent. In actual money, that corresponds to a revenue of NT$172.18 billion, or roughly US$6.18 billion, so we're not talking about small potatoes here.

TSMC is forecasting a growth in sales of between 25 to 29 percent this year, assuming they can continue to deliver as expected to their customers. The first quarter sales are expected to land between US$16.6 and 17.2 billion, or around a 7.4 percent increase compared to last quarter. Its closest competitor in Taiwan also announced record profits, although at a mere NT$20.47 billion or about US$735 million. This is a month-to-month increase of a mere 0.95 percent, but an annual increase of a healthy 31.83 percent. UMC is expecting to be operating at full capacity for the remainder of this year, although no additional production capacity is expected. The company is said to be increasing its prices by five percent this year.

Acer Reports January Consolidated Revenues of NT$25.16 Billion

Acer Inc. announced today its consolidated revenues for January 2022 at NT$25.16 billion to reach an eight-year high for the same period. The January revenues grew by 7.1% year-on-year (YoY), and declined by 14.8% month-on-month due to seasonality. Logistics issues continue to be a bottleneck, while semi-conductor shortages are easing.

Acer's strategy to build multiple business engines continues to gain momentum. Meanwhile, businesses other than PCs and displays contributed to 19.0% of total revenues, compared to 16.1% contribution in January 2021. Among the Acer Group subsidiaries, the publicly-listed companies have all announced their January revenues, while Acer Gaming's revenues grew by 29.3% YoY and Acer Gadget's revenues grew by 24.9% YoY.

Report Forecasts Increased AMD EPYC Processor Pricing, Intel Sapphire Rapids Xeons Delayed

Server processors tend to be one of the most profitable businesses for AMD and Intel. Thus, investment groups and analysts closely monitor happenings in the server and data center world. A report from Mizuho Securities (investment bank) Managing Director Jordan Klein states that many upcoming changes on the server processor front are coming this year. Mr. Klein cites sources over at Insupur Systems, one of the most prominent server vendors. More precisely, Dolly Wu is the VP and GM of Datacenter/Cloud at Inspur. According to the report, AMD and Intel will change their strategy in the server market going forward in 2022.

As far as AMD is concerned, the company plans to increase the pricing of its EPYC processors by 10-30%. This increase should be a bit easier on the strategic cloud customers. The report also indicates that as the demand far exceeds the supply of EPYC processors, AMD increases prices and makes a "take it or leave it" offer, resulting in most customers accepting the increased costs. Another interesting tidbit from the report was the talk about Intel. The blue team laid out its strategy to launch highly-anticipated Sapphire Rapids Xeons in Q2 of 2022. However, it will maybe get delayed to Q3 of 2022. Intel doesn't plan to increase prices to remain competitive with AMD, so the server space will see Intel fighting to regain the lost market share.

Acer Reports November Consolidated Revenues of NT$28.85 Billion, Highest November in Eight Years

Acer Inc. announced today its consolidated revenues for November at NT$28.85 billion, marking the highest in eight years for the same period, up 3.0% month-over-month (MoM) and up 0.5% year-over-year (YoY). Consolidated revenues for year-to-November were NT$289.3 billion, up 16.3% YoY. In terms of US$, year-to-November revenues have reached US$10.3 billion, which is already 9.8% higher than the full-year revenues of 2020. Acer's strategy to build multiple business engines to weather through the future continues to show good momentum, and listed subsidiaries have all reported their November business results, showing growth of 39.8% YoY in total.

India PC Market Ships 4.5 Million Units in 3Q21, Reports All-Time High Shipments, According to IDC

The India traditional PC market (inclusive of desktops, notebooks, and workstations) continued its growth momentum despite ongoing supply and logistical challenges. The traditional PC shipments witnessed a 30% year-over-year (YoY) growth in 3Q21 (Jul-Sep), marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth in India, according to new data from the International Data Corporation 's (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. A total of 4.5 million PCs were shipped during the quarter, making it India's biggest-ever single quarter. To put this in perspective, it is bigger than the total yearly consumer shipments in 2019, a year before the pandemic hit us. As a result, many brands also reported their biggest quarter of PC shipments.

Notebook PCs continue to dominate the overall category with more than 80% share. Enterprise and consumer demand helped the Notebook category to reach over 3 million units for the first time, and the desktop category also continued its upward momentum as it grew by 30.5% YoY in 3Q21.

ASML Reports €5.2 Billion Net Sales and €1.7 Billion Net Income in Q3 2021

Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2021 third-quarter results. "Our third-quarter net sales came in at €5.2 billion with a gross margin of 51.7%, both within our guidance. Our third-quarter net bookings came in at €6.2 billion, including €2.9 billion from EUV systems. The demand continues to be high. The ongoing digital transformation and current chip shortage fuel the need to increase our capacity to meet the current and expected future demand for Memory and for all Logic nodes. ASML expects fourth-quarter net sales between €4.9 billion and €5.2 billion with a gross margin between 51% and 52%. ASML expects R&D costs of around €670 million and SG&A costs of around €195 million. For the full year, we are on track to achieving growth approaching 35%," said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink.

Micron Technology Reports Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of Fiscal 2021

Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU) today announced results for its fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2021, which ended Sept. 2, 2021. "Micron's outstanding fourth quarter execution capped a year of several key milestones," said Micron Technology President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra. "In fiscal 2021, we established DRAM and NAND technology leadership, drove record revenues across multiple markets, and initiated a quarterly dividend. The demand outlook for 2022 is strong, and Micron is delivering innovative solutions to our customers, fueling our long-term growth."

Investments in capital expenditures, net were $2.01 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021 and $9.72 billion for the full year of 2021, which resulted in adjusted free cash flows of $1.88 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021 and $2.75 billion for the full year of 2021. Micron repurchased approximately 13.9 million shares of its common stock for $1.05 billion during the fourth quarter of 2021 and 15.6 million shares of its common stock for $1.20 billion during the full year of 2021 and ended the year with cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash of $10.46 billion, for a net cash position of $3.69 billion.

Semiconductor Market to Grow By 17.3% in 2021 and Reach Potential Overcapacity by 2023, IDC Reports

IDC expects the semiconductor market to grow by 17.3% in 2021 versus 10.8% in 2020. According to IDC, the industry will see normalization and balance by the middle of 2022, with a potential for overcapacity in 2023 as larger scale capacity expansions begin to come online towards the end of 2022. Growth is driven by mobile phones, notebooks, servers, automotive, smart home, gaming, wearables, and Wi-Fi access points, with increased memory pricing. IC shortages are also expected to continue easing through 4Q21 as capacity additions accelerate.

"The semiconductor content story is intact and not only does it benefit the semiconductor companies, but the unit volume growth in many of the markets that they serve will also continue to drive very good growth for the semiconductor market," says Mario Morales, Group Vice President, Enabling Technologies and Semiconductors at IDC.

NVIDIA Reportedly Readies RTX 2060 12 GB SKUs for Early 2022 Launch

Videocardz, citing their own sources in the industry, claims that NVIDIA is readying a resurrection of sorts for the popular RTX 2060 graphics card. One of the hallmarks of the raytracing era, the Turing-based RTX 2060 routinely stands as the second most popular graphics card on Steam's hardware survey. Considering the still-ongoing semiconductor shortages and overreaching demand stretching logistics and supply lines thin, NVIDIA would thus be looking at a slight specs bump (double the GDDR6 memory to 12 GB) as a marketing point for the revised RTX 2060. This would also add to the company's ability to deliver mainstream-performance graphics cards in a high enough volume that enables the company to keep reaping benefits from the current Ampere line-up's higher ASP (Average Selling Price) across the board.

Videocardz' sources claim the revised RTX 2060 will be making use of the PG116 board, recycling it from the original GTX 1660 Ti design it was born unto. Apparently, NVIDIA has already warned board partners that the final design and specifications might be ready at years' end, with a potential re-release for January 2021. While the increase to a 12 GB memory footprint on an RTX 2060 graphics card is debatable, NVIDIA has to have some marketing flair to add to such a release. Remember that the RTX 2060 was already given a second lease of life earlier this year as a stopgap solution towards getting more gaming-capable graphics cards on the market; NVIDIA had allegedly moved its RTX 2060 manufacturing allocation back to Ampere, but now it seems that we'll witness a doubling-down on the RTX 2060. Now we just have to wait for the secondary market pricing to come down from its current $500 average... For a $349 MSRP, 2019 graphics card.

GIGABYTE Reportedly Refuses to RMA Customer's GP-P750GM Power Supply

If you have been following the recent drama of GIGABYTE selling exploding power supplies, then you are aware of the happenings with GIGABYTE response, our PSU expert's response, and of course the massive backlash from customers. Today, according to a Reddit user u/Tinefol, GIGABYTE has refused to RMA the power supply that is eligible for the RMA program. The user is an owner of the GP-P750GM unit, which is part of the exploding units. He proceeded to open a ticket where he included the wordings from the company's press release, to which he got a response that "This press release is applicable only to the newer batches".

However, that is not the case. The press release states that GIGABYTE will offer RMA service on various models with the supported serial numbers. In the case of GP-P750GM PSUs, the RMA service is available for units with serial numbers ranging from SN20243G001301 to SN20453G025430. The customer that requested RMA has serial number SN20243G001306, which is eligible for return and exchange. The ticket response of "This press release is applicable only to the newer batches" holds no value as the press release does not refer to production time, but rather serial numbers of PSUs.

Samsung 5 nm Node Struggles With Yields, Reports Indicate Less Than 50% Yielding

Semiconductor manufacturing is no easy task. Every company in that business knows that, and the hardships of silicon manufacturing have been felt by even the greatest players like Samsung and Intel. Today, according to the latest report from Business Korea, Samsung is again in trouble with its 5 nm node. It has been reported previously that Samsung is struggling with yields of its 5 nm node, however, we didn't know just how much until now. According to the sources over at Business Korea, Samsung's 5 nm semiconductor node is experiencing less than 50% yields. That means, for example, that out of 100 chips manufactured on a single silicon wafer, only half are functional. And that is not good at all.

Usually, for a node to go into high-volume manufacturing (HVM), the yielding rate needs to be around 95%. In case it is not at that level, manufacturing of that node is not very efficient and not very profitable. The V1 Line in Hwaseong, where this Samsung 5 nm is made, uses EUV tools to manufacture the new node. While the yields are currently below 50%, it is expected to improve as Samsung engineers tweak and tune the node and the tools that are running the facility. We can expect to hear more about the yields of this node in the coming months.

AMD Ryzen 8000 Series Processors Based on Zen 5 Architecture Reportedly Codenamed "Granite Ridge"

Today, we have talked about AMD's upcoming Raphael lineup of processors in the article you can find here. However, it seems like the number of leaks on AMD's plans just keeps getting greater. Thanks to the "itacg" on Weibo, we have learned that AMD's Ryzen 8000 desktop series of processors are reportedly codenamed as Granite Ridge. This new codename denotes the Zen 5 based processors, manufactured on TSMC's 3 nm (N3) node. Another piece of information is that AMD's Ryzen 8000 series APUs are allegedly called Strix Point, and they also use the 3 nm technology, along with a combination of Zen 5 and Zen 4 core design IPs. We are not sure how this exactly works out, so we have to wait to find out more.

Electronic Arts Reports Q4 and FY21 Financial Results

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) today announced preliminary financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year ended March 31, 2021. "Our teams have done incredible work over the last year to deliver amazing experiences during a very challenging time for everyone around the world," said Andrew Wilson, CEO of Electronic Arts. "With tremendous engagement across our portfolio, we delivered a record year for Electronic Arts. We're now accelerating in FY22, powered by expansion of our blockbuster franchises to more platforms and geographies, a deep pipeline of new content, and recent acquisitions that will be catalysts for further growth."

"EA delivered a strong quarter, driven by live services and Apex Legends' extraordinary performance. Apex steadily grew through the last year, driven by the games team and the content they are delivering," said COO and CFO Blake Jorgensen. "Looking forward, the momentum in our existing live services provides a solid foundation for FY22. Combined with a new Battlefield and our recent acquisitions, we expect net bookings growth in the high teens."

AMD Reports First Quarter 2021 Financial Results

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) today announced revenue for the first quarter of 2021 of $3.45 billion, operating income of $662 million, net income of $555 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.45. On a non-GAAP* basis, operating income was $762 million, net income was $642 million and diluted earnings per share was $0.52.

"Our business continued to accelerate in the first quarter driven by the best product portfolio in our history, strong execution and robust market demand," said Dr. Lisa Su, AMD president and CEO. "We had outstanding year-over-year revenue growth across all of our businesses and data center revenue more than doubled. Our increased full-year guidance highlights the strong growth we expect across our business based on increasing adoption of our high-performance computing products and expanding customer relationships."

Realtek Also Experiences Chip Shortage, Could Reflect Badly on PC Market

The global chip shortage is currently getting worse each day, starting from the tight supply of graphics cards and processors for consumers, spanning to even your internet router. Every piece of electronics now seems to be getting more expensive, as the semiconductor processors found inside them are very hard to source. The cause of that is huge demand coming from consumers, who require the latest generation of processors manufactured in overbooked semiconductor facilities like the ones from TSMC, UMC, Intel, Samsung, SMIC, etc. If manufacturers can't supply enough chips to satisfy the demand for companies that incorporate these chips in products' needs, the issue appears.

This time, we have another big player in need of more wafer capacity. Realtek, the maker of various ICs for multimedia and peripherals, is reportedly experiencing a chip shortage as well. According to the report coming from DigiTimes, the Taiwanese Realtek is fighting to keep up with the demand. The report raises concerns from laptop manufacturers like Dell, HP, and others who use Realtek's chips for various purposes in devices, like audio and LAN chips. Reportedly used in 70% of global laptop designs, Realtek's audio and LAN solutions are very much in demand. If the company cannot supply enough of those chips, manufacturers would be unable to ship products. According to the report, the delivery time of Realtek's chips has been extended to 32 weeks, which could cause massive delays with product shipments and cause some harm to the supply chain. It remains to be seen how the market responds to the extended delivery time, so we will watch it with caution.

Global Semiconductor Sales Up 14.7% Year-to-Year in February, Says SIA

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced global semiconductor industry sales were $39.6 billion for the month of February 2021, an increase of 14.7% over the February 2020 total of $34.5 billion, but 1.0% less than the January 2021 total of $40.0 billion. Monthly sales are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average. SIA represents 98% of the U.S. semiconductor industry by revenue and nearly two-thirds of non-U.S. chip firms.

"Global semiconductor sales during the first two months of the year have outpaced sales from early in 2020, when the pandemic began to spread in parts of the world," said John Neuffer, SIA president and CEO. "Sales into the China market saw the largest year-to-year growth, largely because sales there were down substantially early last year."

TSMC Reportedly Auctioned off "Excess Capacity" at a 15-20% Price Premium

We've all been reading multiple stories covering the current overly high demand compared to manufacturing capability for semiconductors. Some of us have actually felt this lack in supply not only in our pockets (for those who purchased above-MSRP graphics cards, CPUs or consoles). And apparently, TSMC has just made quite a deal more money out of this "extraordinary demand" than it usually does, as it's being reported the company has auctioned off "excess capacity" to an unknown third-party for 15-20% higher prices than they usually practice.

Now before we start lynching TSMC here, that can mean many things. There is a backlog of orders still to be filled for most manufacturers, that much the reports doing the rounds claim; however, the nature of semiconductor manufacturing occurs throughout many different nodes and technologies. It's more than likely that this doesn't mean that TSMC saved some wafers that could have been used for AMD's RX, Zen, or custom APUs for next-gen consoles on the side and decided to give them to another buyer. This likely means that TSMC had one or more nodes or manufacturing technologies that hadn't been pre-booked yet, and that some players might've looked at that as a solution to their semiconductor woes. And TSMC, having more than one interested party, auctioned the excess capacity. The rumor places the most likely candidates for the purchase as car manufacturers, who have also been hard by the lack of semiconductors in the market, and that's one business where it may make sense to order manufacturing on nodes other than the most cutting-edge; cars just don't need the latest, most powerful and greatest chips to run their software. But all in all, the result is this: a good day for TSMC.

Report: TSMC and UMC are Trucking in Water Amid Shortages

Manufacturing silicon is no easy task. You need to have all the right supplies available all the time. One of the most used ingredients in silicon manufacturing is water. Almost every process needs it and it needs to be constantly available to the manufacturer. According to the report coming from Reuters, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) are experiencing water shortages. The Taiwan island is in trouble, as the typhoon season has been rather mild and water supplies are at the historic lows. Water restrictions are in place all across the island and the reservoirs in the center and southern regions are at only 20% capacity.

The lack of water is a big problem for TSMC and UMC, as both companies rely on the constant income of it. With water restrictions in place, TSMC has to keep its facilities running and needs to solve the problem. That is why Taiwan's biggest silicon manufacturer is now making small orders of waters, delivered by a truckload. TSMC expects to compensate for the lack of water coming from its regular sources with truckloads of it. While we do not know the numbers of it, we can expect the water use to be very high if we take into account the number of wafers TSMC produces at its facilities.

Ex-Intel Employee Reportedly Stole Confidential Xeon Files, Company Files a Lawsuit

Intel has reportedly caught an ex-employee stealing confidential company files for the Xeon processor lineup. Dr. Varun Gupta, who left Intel last year to join Microsoft as Principal for Strategic Planning in Cloud and AI, has reportedly walked away with over 3900 files of confidential information. The stolen files, contain information about Intel's Xeon processors, pricing data, corporate strategies, and Intel's manufacturing capabilities of the chips. Dr. Gupta is being sued by Intel for 75,000 USD and liability to not use confidential Intel information again. The security forensics team at Intel has discovered that Dr. Gupta downloaded almost 4000 files on multiple USB drives, however, Dr. Gupta is denying these claims. We are waiting to hear more information about the situation as it evolves.

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 30-Series GPU Availability to Reportedly Worsen in Q1

The availability of NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 3000 series "Ampere" graphics cards has been a problem ever since it launched. High demand paired with insufficient supply has caused quite some disturbance in the supply chain and has caused the MSRP of the GPUs to increase. Firstly, we were promised that the situation would resolve around May when NVIDIA is expecting to match the supply with the demand. However, according to the recent report, that might not be the case. Alternate, a European retailer operating in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany, has spoken to NVIDIA about the supply of the GeForce RTX 3000 series Ampere graphics cards.

According to the retailer, the situation with the card is such that the availability is scarce. When it comes to the GeForce RTX 3090, there are very few deliveries, but only a few open orders. The RTX 3080 sees very few cards coming with many open orders. The RTX 3070 has few cards incoming, but few open orders. And last but not least, the RTX 3060 Ti has very few cards coming, and a moderately high amount of open orders. If you are aiming to buy a card, your best chances would be with RTX 3090 and RTX 3070, as they do not have such high demand. On the other hand, RTX 3080 and RTX 3060 Ti cards are almost impossible to source as they all have a big waiting list. Alternate says that they work on a "first in first out" principle of delivering cards to consumers, so if you are not on the list you are likely going to wait for even longer.
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