The Biden administration is set to announce new, targeted restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, focusing primarily on emerging chip manufacturing equipment companies rather than broad industry-wide limitations. According to Bloomberg, these new restrictions are supposed to take effect on Monday. The new rules will specifically target two manufacturing facilities owned by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) and will add select companies to the US Entity List, restricting their access to American technology. However, most of Huawei's suppliers can continue their operations, suggesting a more mild strategy. The restrictions will focus on over 100 emerging Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturers, many of which receive government funding. These companies are developing tools intended to replace those currently supplied by industry leaders such as ASML, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron.

The moderated approach comes after significant lobbying efforts from American semiconductor companies, who argued that stricter restrictions could disadvantage them against international competitors. Major firms like Applied Materials, KLA, and Lam Research voiced concerns about losing market share to companies in Japan and the Netherlands, where similar but less stringent export controls are in place. Notably, Japanese companies like SUMCO are already seeing the revenue impacts of Chinese independence. Lastly, the restrictions will have a limited effect on China's memory chip sector. The new measures will not directly affect ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a significant Chinese DRAM manufacturer capable of producing high-bandwidth memory for AI applications.

Chinese semiconductor memory giant YMTC is reportedly manufacturing anywhere between 400-500,000 wafers per year of leading-edge NAND memory, all on domestically produced wafers. According to Mayuki Hashimoto, CEO and Chairman of SUMCO, a Japanese company supplying raw silicon ingots and polished wafers, they are seeing a significant business impact stemming from China's growing self-reliance, especially with companies like YMTC producing its own silicon ingots and polished wafers. This has led to SUMCO's decreasing revenue, where the CEO shared some insights about Chinese ambitions. He added that China is producing about one million wafers of silicon per year, most of which are test wafers. This includes test runs from companies like SMIC and its customers, such as T-Head, HiSilicon, and others.

Last year, YMTC, with its Xtacking 4.0 3D NAND flash architecture, was the first company to achieve a 200+ layer count in the 3D NAND space. The company's product, X4-9070, a 232-layer TLC 3D NAND, uses multiple silicon wafers, hence growing its massive consumption of silicon that is projected to reach 500,000 wafers per year. Given that this is all homegrown silicon from ingots to NAND, this is a massive success for Chinese self-reliance efforts but a huge blow to companies that used to supply Chinese firms with raw materials. Although the company uses custom silicon, it still relies on foreign tools, photoresists, and pre-cursors. There are some indications that YMTC is developing its own tools; it is a plan of a broader strategy in the Chinese semiconductor industry to develop every step of the semiconductor manufacturing process. Huawei is also there to develop EUV scanners, and YMTC could help with its memory business, which is in need of a new tool.

Silicon wafers are definitely the best kind of wafers for us tech enthusiasts, but as we all know, required financial resources for the development and production of these is among the most intensive in development costs and R&D. It's not just about the cost of employing enough (and crucially, good enough) engineers that can employ the right tools and knowledge to design the processing miracles that are etched onto wafers; there's also the cost of good, old production as well. Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography Systems that are used for the production of silicon wafers are about the size of a city bus, and typically cost more than 100 million euros ($115.3 million) each. ASML, a Dutch company that specializes in this kind of equipment, announced this year it was expecting to see a 25% revenue growth for 2017. Increased demand for these systems - and added cost of development of ever increasingly small and complex etchings in wafers - means this sector is seeing strong growth. But where there is strong growth, there is usually high demand, and high demand means higher strain on supply, which may sometimes not be able to keep up with the market's needs.

This is seemingly the case for wafer pricing; as demand for wafer production has been increasing, so to are prices. Faced with increased demand, companies are usually faced with a tough question to answer in regards to the correct course of action. Usually, it goes like this: higher demand at the same supply level means higher pricing. However, if supply isn't enough to satisfy demand, manufacturers are losing out on potential increased sales. This leads most companies to increase supply relative to demand, but always with lower projected output than demand requires, so they can bask in both increased ASP (Average Sale Price) and higher number of sales. This has been the case with DRAM memory production for some time now: and is happening with 300 mm silicon wafers as well.