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Foundry Revenue is Forecasted to Drop by 4% YoY for 2023, TrendForce Notes

TrendForce's recent analysis of the foundry market reveals that demand continues to slide for all types of mature and advanced nodes. The major IC design houses have cut wafer input for 1Q23 and will likely scale back further for 2Q23. Currently, foundries are expected to maintain a lower-than-ideal level of capacity utilization rate in the first two quarters of this year. Some nodes could experience a steeper demand drop in 2Q23 as there are still no signs of a significant rebound in wafer orders. Looking ahead to the second half of this year, orders will likely pick up for some components that underwent an inventory correction at an earlier time. However, the state of the global economy will remain the largest variable that affect demand, and the recovery of individual foundries' capacity utilization rates will not occur as quickly as expected. Taking these factors into account, TrendForce currently forecasts that global foundry revenue will drop by around 4% YoY for 2023. The projected decline for 2023 is more severe when compared with the one that was recorded for 2019.

Top 10 TSMC Customers Said to have Cut Orders for 2023

On the day of TSMC's celebration of the mass production start of its 3 nm node, news out of Taiwan suggests that all of its top 10 customers have cut their orders for 2023. However, the cuts are unlikely to affect its new node, but rather its existing nodes, with the 7 and 6 nm nodes said to be hit the hardest, by as much as a 50 percent utilisation reduction in the first quarter of 2023. The 28 nm and 5 and 4 nm nodes are also said to be affected, although it's unclear by how much at this point in time.

Revenue is expected to fall by at least 15 percent in the first quarter of 2023 for TSMC, based on numbers from DigiTimes. The fact that TSMC has increased its 2023 pricing by six percent should at least help offset some of the potential losses for the company, but it all depends on the demand for the rest of the year. Demand for mobile devices is down globally, which is part of the reason why so many of TSMC's customers have cut back their orders, as Apple, Qualcomm and Mediatek all produce their mobile SoCs at TSMC. Add to this that the demand for computers and new computer components are also down, largely due to the current pricing and TSMC is in for a tough time next year.

AMD Said to be Following NVIDIA with Logistics Center in Taiwan

Just over a month ago, news broke that NVIDIA is planning to move its logistics center from Hong Kong to Taiwan and it now looks like AMD is getting ready to follow suit. The news is coming via Taiwan's United Daily News (UDN) and the paper claims that AMD will be setting up its logistics center in the Farglory free trade zone area in the Dayuan district of Taoyuan, which is next to Taiwan's main international airport. Currently companies like ASML and Asus operate inside the free trade zone and Farglory is currently in the last phase of an expansion of the free trade zone, which should be finalised sometime early in 2023. As such, there should be plenty of space for both NVIDIA and AMD to set up their logistics centers there.

The move for AMD doesn't seem to make as much sense as that of NVIDIA, as AMD's main graphics card partners, which should be Sapphire and XFX (Pine Group), are Hong Kong based companies. That said, AMD still has PowerColor, ASRock, Asus, Gigabyte and MSI in Taiwan, but only PowerColor is an exclusive AMD partner. This does of course not take motherboards or servers into account, where its Taiwanese partners are key. On the other hand, just as NVIDIA, AMD produces its GPUs at TSMC, so for products that doesn't end up in the PRC, it would make more sense to have them go straight to a logistics center in Taiwan, rather than having to ship them out to Hong Kong and then back to Taiwan again. According to UDN it's apparently also cheaper for AMD to shop goods directly from Taiwan to the PRC, as it's apparently quite costly to ship via Hong Kong. Another reason is of course the ongoing trade war between the US and the PRC, which could lead to future issues for both AMD and NVIDIA. Hong Kong has also slowly lost its importance as a key center in the electronics business, with Taiwan and Singapore having become more important hubs, according to UDN.

TSMC Holds 3nm Volume Production and Capacity Expansion Ceremony, Marking a Key Milestone for Advanced Manufacturing

TSMC today held a 3 nanometer (3 nm) Volume Production and Capacity Expansion Ceremony at its Fab 18 new construction site in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSP), bringing together suppliers, construction partners, central and local government, the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association, and members of academia to witness an important milestone in the Company's advanced manufacturing.

TSMC has laid a strong foundation for 3 nm technology and capacity expansion, with Fab 18 located in the STSP serving as the Company's GIGAFAB facility producing 5 nm and 3 nm process technology. Today, TSMC announced that 3 nm technology has successfully entered volume production with good yields, and held a topping ceremony for its Fab 18 Phase 8 facility. TSMC estimates that 3 nm technology will create end products with a market value of US$1.5 trillion within five years of volume production.

TSMC to Mark 3 nm Mass Production Start, Looking at Potential New Fabs in Japan and Germany

According to news out of Taiwan, TSMC will hold a ceremony to mark the official mass production start of its 3 nm node on the 29th of December. This is said to help "shatter doubts about de-Taiwanization" or in simpler terms, that Taiwan will lose its golden goose as TSMC invests abroad. The 3 nm fab—known as fab 18—is based in southern Taiwan's Tainan and the ceremony also marks the start of an expansion of TSMC's most advanced fab. TSMC is said to be kicking off its N3E node production sometime in the second half of 2023, followed by its N3P node in 2024, all of which should take place at fab 18, which also produces 5 nm wafers.

In related news, according to Reuters, a Japanese lawmaker from the ruling party has said that TSMC is considering a second plant in Japan, in addition to its current joint venture that is already under construction. TSMC's response to Reuters was that the company isn't ruling out Japan for future fabs, but that the company doesn't have any current plans. At the same time, TSMC is said to be sending executives to Dresden, Germany in early 2023, for a second round of talks about building a fab to help support the European auto industry, although this would be a 28/22 nm fab, which is far from cutting edge these days, although a lot more advanced than most fabs making chips for the auto industry.

Global Total Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast to Reach Record High in 2022

Global sales of total semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers are forecast to reach a new high of $108.5 billion in 2022, rising 5.9% from the previous industry record of $102.5 billion in 2021, SEMI announced today in its Year-End Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast - OEM Perspective at SEMICON Japan 2022. The record high caps three consecutive years of record revenue. The global total semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to contract to $91.2 billion next year before rebounding in 2024 driven by both the front-end and back-end segments.

"Record fab constructions have driven total semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to cross the $100 billion mark for a second straight year," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. "Emerging applications in multiple markets have set expectations for significant semiconductor industry growth this decade, which will necessitate further investments to expand production capacity."

Global Chip Industry Projected to Invest More Than $500 Billion in New Factories by 2024

The worldwide semiconductor industry is projected to invest more than $500 billion in 84 volume chipmaking facilities starting construction from 2021 to 2023, with segments including automotive and high-performance computing fueling the spending increases, SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report. The projected growth in global factory count includes a record high 33 new semiconductor manufacturing facilities starting construction this year and 28 more in 2023.

"The latest SEMI World Fab Forecast update reflects the increasing strategic importance of semiconductors to countries and a wide array of industries worldwide," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. "The report underscores the significant impact of government incentives in expanding production capacity and strengthening supply chains. With the bullish long-term outlook for the industry, rising investments in semiconductor manufacturing are critical to laying the groundwork for secular growth driven by a diverse range of emerging applications."

ASML Said to Have Plans to Bring European Supply Chain to Taiwan

Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography, or as the company is more commonly known, ASML, is apparently set to build a new factory in Taiwan for the production of advanced semiconductor lithography equipment. The new factory is said to be built in the Linkou area of New Taipei City and at the same time, bring with it its European supply chain, according to Taiwan Vice Premier Shen Jong-chin.

The new factory in Linkou is still some time away, as construction will only start in July, 2023. It will apparently be ASML's largest investment in Taiwan to date, although an exact figure of the investment wasn't given, but the new factory will take up 6.68 hectares or 66,800 square metres, suggesting it'll be a rather large facility. That said, not all the land will be used for the clean room facilities, as there will also be office buildings and warehouse buildings adjacent to the factory. No details on which suppliers ASML will bring with it to Taiwan, but it's likely that the likes of Zeiss, who supplies many of the mirrors in ASML's machines, will be setting up a local presence, alongside other key ASML suppliers. ASML already has an office in Hsinchu, about an hour south of New Taipei City.

AMD Radeon RX 7900 RDNA3 GPU Launch Could Face Scarcity, China Loses Reference Card Privilege

AMD's next-generation Radeon RX 7900 high-end graphics cards are set to arrive next week and bring the new RDNA3 GPU architecture to the masses. However, it seems like the customers will have to fight for their purchase as the availability could be scarce at launch, leading to potentially increased prices with low stocks. According to Igor's Lab report, Germany will receive only 3,000 reference MBA (Made By AMD) units of Radeon RX 7900 series cards. In contrast, the rest of the EMEA region will receive only 7,000 MBA units. These numbers are lower than expected, so AIB partners may improve the supply once their designs hit shelves.

On the other hand, mainland China will not receive any MBA units of the new cards as a sign of increasing tension with Taiwan. Of course, AMD's board partners will supply their designs to China, and they are allowed to; however, it seems that only AMD is making a statement here. In addition to supply issues, the launch is rumored to be covered in BIOS issues such as memory leaks and the COVID-19 outbreak affecting production in closed factories. Of course, all of this information should be taken with a grain of salt, and we must wait for the official launch before making any further assumptions.

US Might Reimpose GPU Import Tariffs in the New Year

Currently, the US has an exclusion in place when it comes to import tariffs relating to graphics cards and GPUs imported from China, but the exclusion is set to expire on the 31st of December this year. So far, the US government has been quiet on whether or not the import tariff will be reinstated or not. If the tariff was to be reinstated, US consumers are looking at a 25 percent import duty on graphics cards, starting on the 1st of January, 2023.

There's no easy way to circumvent the tariff either, as it includes items like "printed circuit assemblies, constituting unfinished logic boards," according to Tom's Hardware. Not all graphics cards are made in China though, but the majority of graphics cards are today. It's possible that NVIDIA's move of its logistics center from Hong Kong to Taiwan could have some relation to this as well, as NVIDIA would then be shipping products out of Taiwan, rather than China, depending on how the US Customs classifies Hong Kong these days. We should know what happens in a month's time, but a 25 percent import duty on graphics cards will likely kill most sales, as most people already find them overpriced. This would of course affect AMD and NVIDIA, as well as their partners in the same way, unless they make their graphics cards outside of China.

Phison Enterprise PCIe 4.0 X1 SSD Solution Received 2023 Taiwan Excellence Award

Phison Electronics Corp., a global leader in NAND flash controller and storage solutions, announced that its latest flagship enterprise PCIe 4.0 X1 SSD solution, which was developed in partnership with Seagate was awarded the 2023 Taiwan Excellence Award. "We are very pleased that Phison's enterprise PCIe 4.0 X1 SSD solution has received this honor," said K.S. Pua, CEO or Phison. "For Taiwanese products, the mark of Taiwan Excellence is associated with innovative values that are renowned in the international market for excellence and quality."

The Taiwan Excellence Awards were established by the Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan in 1993. Every year, eligible candidates are subjected to a rigorous and stringent selection system that covers four major aspects of R&D, Design, Quality, and Marketing to identify outstanding products that offer "Innovative Value" while satisfying the key criterion of being "made in Taiwan." Products that have been selected for the Taiwan Excellence Awards will serve as domestic industry examples while being promoted by the government in the international market to shape the creative image for Taiwanese businesses.

NVIDIA to Relocate Logistics Center From Hong Kong to Taiwan

According to news out of Taiwan, NVIDIA is getting ready to move its logistics center from Hong Kong to Taiwan. The information comes from Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs, Wang Mei-Hua, so the source should be fairly reliable. The Taiwanese government has apparently been in negotiation with NVIDIA since some time last year and the two have now reached a consensus.

The media report didn't mention where NVIDIA will locate its new logistics center, but the company and the Taiwanese government have been discussing tax subsidies to help facilitate the move. Wang told the local media that the new logistics center should boost the local industry, least not because NVIDIA is already working with TSMC, as well as many other local suppliers and manufacturers. No details were given on when the move would take place, but it's likely to be a transition that will be drawn out, due to the fact that NVIDIA is still going to have to supply all of its customers during the move.

TSMC's Morris Chang Says Arizona Fab Will Produce 3 nm Chips in the Future

Although Morris Chang is no longer in charge of the day to day business at TSMC, the founder of the company is still getting his hands dirty. Chang attended the APEC Economic Leaders Meeting last week, as part of Taiwan's delegation and was questioned by the media about TSMC's future plans. The specific question was about TSMC's Arizona fab, which will initially produce chips using a 5 nm node. The US$12 billion plant is scheduled to kick off production at some point in 2024, by which time the 5 nm node should be a commonly used node rather than close to cutting edge.

When questioned about the future of the Arizona fab, Morris Chang answered that it will be moving to a 3 nm node, which is currently TSMC's most cutting edge node, that has gone into volume production earlier this year with th N3 node, which is set to be followed by the N3E node. According to Chang, there's interest by several countries to have TSMC set up fabs there, but apparently this is not something TSMC is considering at the moment. One potential reason for this would be a suitable labour force, something that has already proven to be tough for the Arizona fab.

Taiwan Reportedly Preparing a Domestic Version of CHIPS Act, To Reveal More Details on Thursday

Suppose you are following the inside of the semiconductor industry. In that case, you must be aware of the United States CHIPs act, where the US government plans to invest billions of dollars into domestic companies to boost the production of semiconductors devices on American soil. However, it seems like the Biden administration isn't the only governing body that realizes the importance of making semiconductors that power everything from entertainment to government, as Taiwan is supposed to announce a similar act for Taiwanese semiconductor makers like TSMC, MediaTek, GlobalWafers, UMC, etc. to simulate additional manufacturing and development on Taiwanese soil.

On Thursday, the Taiwanese government is expected to announce a 25% tax cut for research and development efforts of companies manufacturing their chips on the domestic playground. In addition to this tax deduction, Taiwan also plans to impose an additional 5% tax break on equipment purchasing, so companies like TSMC and GlobalWafers that purchase leading-edge equipment will be enjoying a healthy 30% smaller tax bill. This money is a Taiwanese way of creating additional funds for R&D purposes so these companies can bolster their CapEx with additional funds. We await to see what will happen tomorrow and update this story with more information as the official act gets announced.

TSMC N1 Node Chip Plant Said to be Under Planning

Based on news out of Taiwan, TSMC is said to be in the early planning stages of yet another chip plant, this time for its first N1 node. The new plant will reportedly be built in a science park in Taoyuan, less than an hour south west of Taipei, according to the Commercial Times. TSMC already has a pair of chip packaging and testing facilities in the science park, making it a suitable location for a chip plant. This will be TSMC's most northern chip manufacturing plant in Taiwan, although it's not expected to start pilot production until sometime in 2027. TSMC hasn't confirmed any of the details, but the company didn't outright deny the report either.

Despite the potential global downturn in the economy, TSMC appears to be fully committed to continue to build new fabs for increasingly smaller nodes. The company is set to start its first commercial production on its N3 node this quarter and is expecting the N3 node to contribute as much as four to six percent of its overall revenue in 2023. Its N2 node should enter commercial production in 2025, but not much is known about the state of the N2 node at this point in time. The N1 node might end up being a 1.4 nm node, based on TSMC's measurements, but the company is still in the very beginning of the R&D phase for this node.

TSMC Cuts Back CAPEX Budget Despite Record Profits

Another quarter, another record breaking earnings report by TSMC, but it seems like the company has released that things are set to slow down sooner than initially expected and the company is hitting the brakes on some of its expansion projects. The company saw a 79.7 percent increase in profits compared to last year, with a profit of US$8.8 billion and a revenue of somewhere between US$19.9 to US$ 20.7 billion for the third quarter, which is a 47.9 percent bump compared to last year. TSMC's 5 nm nodes were the source for 28 percent of the revenues, followed by 26 percent for 7 nm nodes, 12 percent for 16 nm and 10 percent for 28 nm, with remaining nodes at 40 nm and larger making up for the remainder of the revenue. By platform, smartphone chips made up 41 percent, followed by High Performance Computing at 39 percent, IoT at 10 percent and automotive at five percent.

TSMC said it will cut back its CAPEX budget by around US$4 billion, to US$36 billion, compared to the earlier stated US$40 billion budget the company had set aside for expanding its fabs. Part of the reason for this is that TSMC is already seeing weaker demand for products manufactured using its N7 and N6 nodes, as the N7 node was meant to be a key part of the new fab in Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan. TSMC is expecting to start production on its first N3 node later this quarter and is expecting the capacity to be fully utilised for all of 2023. Supply is said to be exceeding demand, which TSMC said is partially to blame on tooling delivery issues. TSMC is expecting next year's revenue for its N3 node to be higher than its N5 node in 2020, although the revenue is said to be in the single digit percentage range. The N3E node is said to start production sometime in the second half of next year, or about a quarter earlier than expected. The N2 node isn't due to start production until 2025, but TSMC is already having very high customer engagement, so it doesn't look like TSMC is likely to suffer from a lack of business in the foreseeable future, as long as the company keeps delivering new nodes as planned.

Acer's Predator BiFrost Arc A770 Goes on Sale in Taiwan for as Low as US$313

Acer has launched its Predator BiFrost Arc A770 graphics card in Taiwan and the official pricing appears to be NT$12,900 or US$404, local shops are already selling the card for far less. The BiFrost comes with 16 GB of GDDR6 memory and an overclocking option that boosts the GPU speed from 2,200 MHz to 2,400 MHz. The latter also increases the TDP from 250 to 280 Watts. As seen in the launch announcement pictures, the card has a rather unusual fan design and Acer has even come up with some marketing names for the setup. The blower fan is referred to as Aeroblade 3D and the regular 92 mm fan as Frostblade 2.0. We're not sure how there's a version 2.0 when this is Acer's first retail graphics card.

The card measures 267 x 117.75 mm and has as we've also seen, a pair of 8-pin power connectors. The port configuration consists of three DP 2.0 ports and one HDMI 2.1 port. Local shops are offering the card on sale for US$372 to as little as US$313 (NT$9990), which is only US$13 more than Intel's own Arc A750 cards retail for in Taiwan. This price point makes it a fair bit more attractive, even taking potential driver related issues and hardware limitations into account.

Global 300 mm Semiconductor Fab Capacity Projected To Reach New High in 2025

Semiconductor manufacturers worldwide are forecast to expand 300 mm fab capacity at a nearly 10% compound average growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2025, reaching an all-time high of 9.2 million wafers per month (wpm), SEMI announced today in its 300 mm Fab Outlook to 2025 report. Strong demand for automotive semiconductors and new government funding and incentive programs in multiple regions are driving much of the growth.

"While shortages of some chips have eased and supply of others has remained tight, the semiconductor industry is laying the groundwork to meet longer-term demand for a broad range of emerging applications as it expands 300 mm fab capacity," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI President and CEO. "SEMI is currently tracking 67 new 300 mm fabs or major additions of new lines expected to start construction from 2022 to 2025."

Global Fab Equipment Spending Forecast to Reach All-Time High of Nearly $100 Billion in 2022

Global fab equipment spending for front-end facilities is expected to increase approximately 9% year-over-year (YOY) to a new all-time high of US$99 billion in 2022, SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report. The report also shows the global fab equipment industry increasing capacity this year and again in 2023. "After achieving a record level in 2022, the global fab equipment market is projected to remain healthy next year driven by new fabs and upgrade activity," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI President and CEO.

Taiwan is expected to lead fab equipment spending in 2022, increasing investments 47% YOY to US$30 billion, followed by Korea at US$22.2 billion, a 5.5% decline, and China at US$22 billion, a 11.7% drop from its peak last year. Europe/Mideast this year is forecast to log record high spending of US$6.6 billion, a 141% YOY surge this year though outlays remain comparatively smaller than in other regions. Strong demand for high-performance computing (HPC) advanced technologies is driving the region's jump in spending. The Americas and Southeast Asia are also expected to register record high investments in 2023.

AMD's CEO Lisa Su Planning Trip to Taiwan, Said to be Visiting TSMC to Secure Future Wafer Allocation

Based on a report by Tom's Hardware, AMD's CEO Lisa Su is planning a trip to Taiwan in the next couple of months. It is said that she is planning to meet with multiple partners in Taiwan, such as ASUS, Acer and maybe more importantly, ASMedia, which will be the sole maker of chipsets for AMD, once the X570 chipset is discontinued. AMD is apparently also seeing various less well known partners that deliver parts for its CPUs, such as Nan Ya PCB, Unimicron Technologies and Kinsus Interconnects.

However, it appears that the main reason for Lisa Su herself to visit Taiwan will be to meet with TSMC, to discuss future collaboration with CC Wei, TSMC's chief executive. This is so AMD can secure enough wafer allocation on future nodes, such as its 3 nm and 2 nm class nodes. The move to these nodes is obviously not happening in the near future for AMD, but considering that TSMC is currently the leading foundry and is operating at capacity, it makes sense to get in early, as the competition is stiff when it comes to getting wafer allocation on cutting edge nodes. It's unclear which exact 3 nm class node AMD will be aiming for, but it might be the N3P node, which is said to kick off production sometime next year. Lisa Su is also said to have meetings with TSMC, SPIL and Ase Technology when it comes to advanced packaging for AMD's products. This includes technologies such as chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) and fan-out embedded bridge (FO-EB), with AMD already being expected to use some of these technologies in its upcoming Navi 3x GPUs.

Impact of Earthquake on Production Status of Taiwan's Semiconductor and Panel Industries Limited

On the evening of September 17, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 on the Richter scale occurred in Guanshan Township, Taitung. Yesterday (9/18) afternoon, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 on the Richter scale occurred in Chishang Township, Taitung. Following up on these recent powerful earthquakes, TrendForce's investigation into their impact on Taiwan's semiconductor and panel industries is as follows:

In terms of foundries, due to shock-absorbing plant designs, earthquake vibrations inside fabs are one level of magnitude less than outside. In terms of equipment manufacturers, currently there are no reports of substantial factory damage. In the worst case, some machinery required initialization after crashing. In terms of memory, Nanya Technology has already carried out a shutdown inspection. If there was any wafer damage, Nanya maintains sufficient inventory to compensate. Micron recalled engineers to inspect equipment and has confirmed no losses. Thus, the capacity utilization rate of these two companies has not been affected nor has supply.

Global Top Ten IC Design House Revenue Spikes 32% in 2Q22, Ability to Destock Inventory to be Tested in 2H22, Says TrendForce

According to the latest TrendForce statistics, revenue of the top ten global IC design houses reached US$39.56 billion in 2Q22, growing 32% YoY. Growth was primarily driven by demand for data centers, networking, IoT, and high-end product portfolios. AMD achieved synergy through mergers and acquisitions. In addition to climbing to third place, the company also posted the highest annual revenue growth rate in 2Q22 at 70%.

Qualcomm continues in the No. 1 position worldwide, exhibiting growth in the mobile phone, RF front-end, automotive, and IoT sectors. Sales of mid/low-end mobile phone APs were weak but demand for high-end mobile phone APs was relatively stable. Company revenue reached US$9.38 billion, or 45% growth YoY. NVIDIA benefitted from expanded application of GPUs in data centers to expand this product category's revenue share past the 50% mark to 53.5%, making up for the 13% YoY slump in its game application business, bringing total revenue to US$7.09 billion, though annual growth rate slowed to 21%. AMD reorganized its business after the addition of Xilinx and Pensando. The company's embedded division revenue increased by 2,228% YoY. In addition, its data center department also made a considerable contribution. AMD posted revenue of US$6.55 billion, achieving 70% growth YoY, highest amongst the top ten. Broadcom's sales performance in semiconductor solutions remained solid and demand for cloud services, data centers, and networking is quite strong. The company's purchase order backlog is still increasing with 2Q22 revenue reaching US$6.49 billion, an annual growth rate of 31%.

TSMC has Seven Major Customers Lined Up for its 3 nm Node

Based on media reports out of Taiwan, TSMC seems to have plenty of customers lined up for its 3 nm node, with Apple being the first customer out the gates when production starts sometime next month. However, TSMC is only expected to start the production with a mere 1,000 wafer starts a month, which seems like a very low figure, especially as this is said to remain unchanged through all of Q4. On the plus side, yields are expected to be better than the initial 5 nm node yields. Full-on mass production for the 3 nm node isn't expected to happen until the second half of 2023 and TSMC will also kick off its N3E node sometime in 2023.

Apart from Apple, major customers for the 3 nm node include AMD, Broadcom, Intel, MediaTek, NVIDIA and Qualcomm. Contrary to earlier reports by TrendForce, it appears that TSMC will continue its rollout of the 3 nm node as previously planned. Apple is expected to produce the A17 smartphone and tablet SoC, as well as advanced versions of the M2, as well as the M3 laptop and desktop processors on the 3 nm node. Intel is still said to be producing its graphics chiplets with TSMC, with the potential for GPU and FPGA products in the future. There's no word on what the other customers are planning to produce on the 3 nm node, but MediaTek and Qualcomm are obviously looking at using the node for future smartphone and tablet SoCs, with AMD and NVIDIA most likely aiming for upcoming GPUs and Broadcom for some kind of HPC related hardware.

Bloated Inventory and Manufacturers Sacrificing Pricing for Sales, Consumer DRAM Price Decline Expands to 13~18%, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce investigations into the DRAM market, under pressure from ever-increasing output, Korean manufacturers have significantly increased their willingness to compromise on pricing in order to stimulate buying from distributors and customers, leading to a steady expansion of falling prices. In addition to Korean manufacturers enthusiastically slashing prices, low-priced chips from the spot market are also circulating in the market. Other suppliers have no choice but to follow suit and fervently reduce pricing for sales, rapidly exacerbating the 3Q consumer DRAM price drop from the original estimate of 8~13% to a quarterly decline of 13-18%.

Looking forward to Q4, it will be difficult for stocking momentum to recover before terminal inventories have been completely depleted. TrendForce expects the price of consumer DRAM to continue to fall until oversupply in the market is alleviated. Thus, consumer DRAM pricing will carry on moving lower by another 3~8% in Q4 and the possibility of sustained decline cannot be ruled out.

More Details Emerge on Mediatek's Intel Foundry Plans

Last week's news about Mediatek signing an agreement to use Intel's Foundry Services (IFS) led to some speculation as to what Mediatek would be manufacturing at IFS. Details have now emerged in the Taiwan press about Mediatek's plans and the first products will be using the Intel 16 process, what was previously known as its 22 nm node. As such, we're not talking about anything cutting edge or even remotely close, but that's hardly a problem for Mediatek, as the company makes a vast range of products suitable for the node.

MediaTek CEO Rick Tsai mentioned that IFS will be used for producing semiconductors for digital TVs and wireless access networks at an investor conference in Taiwan. This suggests that most of the components might not even be for Mediatek itself, but rather its subsidiaries, such as MStar or Airoha. MStar is a company that produces a wide range of lower-end smart TV chips, whereas Airoha has ended up taking over Mediatek's networking and Bluetooth business units. Admittedly, Mediatek still has some of these types of products under its own brand, but these tend to be higher-end products that would require a more advanced node than 22 nm in most cases. Mediatek's move to IFS has raised concerns in Taiwan that the smaller foundries might be losing business from Mediatek over time, which means that UMC and PSMC are going to be on the losing end of this deal.
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