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Demand from AMD and NVIDIA Drives FOPLP Development, Mass Production Expected in 2027-2028

In 2016, TSMC developed and named its InFO FOWLP technology, and applied it to the A10 processor used in the iPhone 7. TrendForce points out that since then, OSAT providers have been striving to develop FOWLP and FOPLP technologies to offer more cost-effective packaging solutions.

Starting in the second quarter, chip companies like AMD have actively engaged with TSMC and OSAT providers to explore the use of FOPLP technology for chip packaging and helping drive industry interest in FOPLP. TrendForce observes that there are three main models for introducing FOPLP packaging technology: Firstly, OSAT providers transitioning from traditional methods of consumer IC packaging to FOPLP. Secondly, foundries and OSAT providers packaging AI GPUs that are transitioning 2.5D packaging from wafer level to panel level. Thirdly, panel makers who are packaging consumer ICs.

Q3 Contract Prices of NAND Flash Products Constrained by Increased Production and Lower End-User Demand; Estimated to Rise by 5-10%

TrendForce reports that while the enterprise sector continues to invest in server infrastructure—especially with the rising adoption of AI driving demand for enterprise SSDs—the consumer electronics market remains lackluster. This, combined with NAND suppliers aggressively ramping up production in the second half of the year, is expected to push the NAND Flash sufficiency ratio up to 2.3% in the third quarter, curbing the blended price hike to a modest 5-10%.

This year, NAND Flash prices saw a robust rebound as manufacturers kept production in check during the first half, helping them regain profitability. However, with a noticeable ramp-up in production and sluggish retail demand, wafer spot prices have dropped significantly. Some wafer prices are now over 20% below contract prices, casting doubts on the sustainability of future price hikes.

Report: US PC Market Set for 5% Growth in 2024 Amid a Healthy Recovery Trajectory

PC (excluding tablets) shipments to the United States grew 5% year-on-year to 14.8 million units in Q1 2024. The consumer and SMB segments were the key growth drivers, both witnessing shipment increases above 9% year-on-year in the first quarter. With a strong start to the year, the market is now poised for a healthy recovery trajectory amid the ongoing Windows refresh cycle. Total PC shipments to the US are expected to hit 69 million units in 2024 before growing another 8% to 75 million units in 2025.

For the third consecutive quarter, the consumer segment showed the best performance in the US market. "Continued discounting after the holiday season boosted consumer demand for PCs into the start of 2024," said Greg Davis, Analyst at Canalys. "However, the first quarter also saw an uptick in commercial sector performance. Shipment growth in small and medium businesses indicates that the anticipated refresh brought by the Windows 10 end-of-life is underway. With enterprise customers set to follow suit, the near-term outlook for the market remains highly positive."

Micron Technology, Inc. Reports Results for the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2024

Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU) today announced results for its third quarter of fiscal 2024, which ended May 30, 2024.

Fiscal Q3 2024 highlights
  • Revenue of $6.81 billion versus $5.82 billion for the prior quarter and $3.75 billion for the same period last year
  • GAAP net income of $332 million, or $0.30 per diluted share
  • Non-GAAP net income of $702 million, or $0.62 per diluted share
  • Operating cash flow of $2.48 billion versus $1.22 billion for the prior quarter and $24 million for the same period last year
"Robust AI demand and strong execution enabled Micron to drive 17% sequential revenue growth, exceeding our guidance range in fiscal Q3," said Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO of Micron Technology. "We are gaining share in high-margin products like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and our data center SSD revenue hit a record high, demonstrating the strength of our AI product portfolio across DRAM and NAND. We are excited about the expanding AI-driven opportunities ahead, and are well positioned to deliver a substantial revenue record in fiscal 2025."

Global Semiconductor Fab Capacity Projected to Expand 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025

To keep pace with unremitting growth in demand for chips, the global semiconductor manufacturing industry is expected to increase capacity by 6% in 2024 and post a 7% gain in 2025, reaching a record capacity high of 33.7 million wafers per month (wpm: 8-inch equivalent), SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report.

Leading-edge capacity for 5 nm nodes and under is expected to grow 13% in 2024, chiefly driven by generative artificial intelligence (AI) for data center training, inference, and leading-edge devices. To increase processing power efficiency, chipmakers including Intel, Samsung, and TSMC are poised to start production of 2 nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) chips, boosting total leading-edge capacity growth by 17% in 2025.

Report: China's PC Market to Contract 1% in 2024 Before 12% Rebound in 2025

The PC (desktops, notebooks, and workstations) market in Mainland China is forecast to contract by 1% in 2024 according to the latest Canalys data. The first quarter of the year already saw a sharp decline, with shipments down 12%, in contrast to the global market which returned to growth. Desktop shipments are expected to perform well in 2024, growing 10% annually as they benefit from commercial sector refresh demand, especially from large state-held enterprises and local governments. Notebook shipments are set to drop 5%, as demand from consumers and the private sector is anticipated to remain cautious on short-term expenditure such as PCs.

China's PC market trajectory is diverging from global trends in its recovery journey. In Q1 2024, the commercial sector bore the brunt of the market downturn, undergoing a 19% decline due to weak IT spending by large enterprises. The decline in consumer shipments was milder, with shipments dropping 8%. However, despite the muted performance in 2024, significant local developments point to a stronger market in 2025, in which PC shipments are expected to grow 12%.

GPU and CPU Markets See Q1 Gains, but Outlook Remains Mixed

According to Jon Peddie Research latest report, the global GPU and CPU markets ended Q1 2024 on growth. GPU shipments reached 70 million units, while PC CPU shipments increased by 33% year-over-year, the second consecutive yearly increase in over two decades. Over the next five years, discrete GPUs are projected to achieve 22% penetration in the PC market as the overall GPU installed approaches 3 billion units by 2026. Among major GPU vendors, AMD's market share dipped 0.7% from last quarter, while Intel gained 0.3% and Nvidia rose 0.4%. However, overall GPU shipments declined 9.9% quarter-over-quarter. The total GPU attach rate for PCs was 113%, slightly down from the prior quarter. Desktop graphics add-in board shipments also decreased 14.8%.

While Q1 is typically flat or down versus Q4, Jon Peddie Research's president suggests this quarter's performance could signal a return to normal seasonality. With Microsoft, AMD and Intel promoting AI PCs, and forecasts pointing to growth in Q2, there are optimistic signs - although semiconductor suppliers are guiding 7.9% down on average for next quarter.
Report GPU shipment vs. rate

NAND Flash Industry Revenue Grew 28.1% in 1Q24, Growth Expected to Continue into Q2

TrendForce reports that adoption of enterprise SSDs by AI servers began in February, which subsequently led to large orders. Additionally, PC and smartphone customers have been increasing their inventory levels to manage rising prices. This trend drove up NAND Flash prices and shipment levels in 1Q24 and boosted quarterly revenue by 28.1% to US$14.71 billion.

There were significant changes in market rankings this quarter, with Micron overtaking Western Digital to claim the fourth spot. Micron benefited from slightly lower prices and shipments than its competitors in 4Q23, resulting in a 51.2% QoQ revenue growth to $1.72 billion in 1Q24—the highest among its peers.

Lenovo Releases Fiscal Year 2023/24 Earnings Report

Lenovo Group today announced Q4 and full-year results for fiscal year 2023/24. After resuming growth in Q3, the Group reported year-on-year revenue growth across all business groups in Q4, with Group revenue increasing nearly 10% year-on-year to US$13.8 billion, net income doubling year-on-year to US$248 million, and non-PC revenue mix reaching a historic high of 45%. The Group's Q4 and overall 2nd half performance demonstrates how Lenovo has navigated the past year's industry downturn, captured the tremendous growth opportunities presented by AI, and accelerated momentum across the business. Revenue for the full fiscal year was US$56.9 billion, and net income was US$1 billion. From the second half of the fiscal year, Lenovo achieved year-on-year revenue growth of 6% and net margin recovered from a first half year-on-year decline to flat in the second half.

The Group is leading in an era of unprecedented AI opportunities with its pocket-to-cloud portfolio, strong ecosystem and partnerships, and full-stack AI capabilities. Since announcing its AI strategy in October 2023 at its annual Tech World event, Lenovo has launched its first wave of AI PCs as well as AI capabilities covering other smart devices, smart infrastructure, and smart solutions and services. The Group expects the AI PC - which is defined as equipped with a personal AI agent based on natural interactions, heterogeneous computing, personal knowledge base, connected to an open AI application ecosystem, and with privacy and security protection - to grow from its current premium position to mainstream over the next three years, driving a new refresh cycle for the industry. Hybrid AI is also driving greater demand for AI infrastructure and customers are increasingly asking for customized AI solutions and services, particularly consulting, design, deployment and maintenance of AI.

AMD Hits Highest-Ever x86 CPU Market Share in Q1 2024 Across Desktop and Server

AMD has reached a significant milestone, capturing a record-high share of the X86 CPU market in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest report from Mercury Research. This achievement marks a significant step forward for the chipmaker in its long battle against rival Intel's dominance in the crucial computer processor space. The surge was fueled by strong demand for AMD's Ryzen and EPYC processors across consumer and enterprise markets. The Ryzen lineup's compelling price-to-performance ratio has struck a chord with gamers, content creators, and businesses seeking cost-effective computing power without sacrificing capabilities. It secured AMD's 23.9% share, an increase from the previous Q4 of 2023, which has seen a 19.8% market share.

The company has also made major inroads on the data center front with its EPYC server CPUs. AMD's ability to supply capable yet affordable processors has enabled cloud providers and enterprises to scale operations on AMD's platform. Several leading tech giants have embraced EPYC, contributing to AMD's surging server market footprint. Now, it is at 23.6%, a significant increase over the past few years, whereas AMD was just above 10% four years ago in 2020. AMD lost some share to Intel on the mobile PC front due to the Meteor Lake ramp, but it managed to gain a small percentage of the market share of client PCs. As AMD rides the momentum into the second half of 2024, all eyes will be on whether the chipmaker can sustain this trajectory and potentially claim an even larger slice of the x86 CPU pie from Intel in the coming quarters.
Below, you can see additional graphs of mobile PC and client PC market share.

Corsair Gaming Reports First Quarter 2024 Financial Results

Corsair Gaming, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRSR) ("Corsair" or the "Company"), a leading global provider and innovator of high-performance products for gamers, streamers, content-creators, and gaming PC builders, today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024.

First Quarter 2024 Select Financial Metrics
  • Net revenue was $337.3 million compared to $417.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and $354.0 million in the first quarter of 2023. Gaming Components and Systems segment net revenue was $230.3 million compared to $280.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and $265.0 million in the first quarter of 2023, while Gamer and Creator Peripherals segment net revenue was $107.0 million compared to $136.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and $88.9 million in the first quarter of 2023.
  • Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $12.5 million, or net loss of $0.12 per diluted share, compared to net income of $6.2 million, or net income of $0.06 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2023 and a net loss of $1.1 million, or a net loss of $0.01 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2023.
  • Adjusted net income was $9.5 million, or net income of $0.09 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $23.2 million, or net income of $0.22 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2023 and adjusted net income of $11.9 million, or net income of $0.11 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2023.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $18.0 million, compared to $33.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, and $20.6 million in the first quarter of 2023.
  • Cash and restricted cash was $130.2 million as of March 31, 2024.

DRAM Contract Prices for Q2 Adjusted to a 13-18% Increase; NAND Flash around 15-20%

TrendForce's latest forecasts reveal contract prices for DRAM in the second quarter are expected to increase by 13-18%, while NAND Flash contract prices have been adjusted to a 15-20% Only eMMC/UFS will be seeing a smaller price increase of about 10%.

Before the 4/03 earthquake, TrendForce had initially predicted that DRAM contract prices would see a seasonal rise of 3-8% and NAND Flash 13-18%, significantly tapering from Q1 as seen from spot price indicators which showed weakening price momentum and reduced transaction volumes. This was primarily due to subdued demand outside of AI applications, particularly with no signs of recovery in demand for notebooks and smartphones. Inventory levels were gradually increasing, especially among PC OEMs. Additionally, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices having risen for 2-3 consecutive quarters, the willingness of buyers to accept further substantial price increases had diminished.

HBM Prices to Increase by 5-10% in 2025, Accounting for Over 30% of Total DRAM Value

Avril Wu, TrendForce Senior Research Vice President, reports that the HBM market is poised for robust growth, driven by significant pricing premiums and increased capacity needs for AI chips. HBM's unit sales price is several times higher than that of conventional DRAM and about five times that of DDR5. This pricing, combined with product iterations in AI chip technology that increase single-device HBM capacity, is expected to dramatically raise HBM's share in both the capacity and market value of the DRAM market from 2023 to 2025. Specifically, HBM's share of total DRAM bit capacity is estimated to rise from 2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and surpass 10% by 2025. In terms of market value, HBM is projected to account for more than 20% of the total DRAM market value starting in 2024, potentially exceeding 30% by 2025.

2024 sees HBM demand growth rate near 200%, set to double in 2025
Wu also pointed out that negotiations for 2025 HBM pricing have already commenced in 2Q24. However, due to the limited overall capacity of DRAM, suppliers have preliminarily increased prices by 5-10% to manage capacity constraints, affecting HBM2e, HBM3, and HBM3e. This early negotiation phase is attributed to three main factors: Firstly, HBM buyers maintain high confidence in AI demand prospects and are willing to accept continued price increases.

Western Digital Reports Fiscal Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results

Western Digital Corp. today reported fiscal third quarter 2024 financial results.

"As evidenced by our excellent third quarter results, Western Digital continues improving through-cycle profitability and dampening business cycles by leveraging our strategy of developing a diversified portfolio of industry-leading products across a broad range of end markets," said David Goeckeler, Western Digital CEO. "We are in the early innings of unlocking the full potential of this company, and as industry supply and demand dynamics continue to improve, we will remain disciplined around our capital spending and focused on driving innovation and efficiency across our businesses. We are confident in our strategy and the actions we have taken to-date, which successfully position us to capitalize on the promising growth prospects that lie ahead."

Samsung Electronics Begins Industry's First Mass Production of 9th-Gen V-NAND

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., the world leader in advanced memory technology, today announced that it has begun mass production for its one-terabit (Tb) triple-level cell (TLC) 9th-generation vertical NAND (V-NAND), solidifying its leadership in the NAND flash market.

"We are excited to deliver the industry's first 9th-gen V-NAND, which will bring future applications leaps forward. In order to address the evolving needs for NAND flash solutions, Samsung has pushed the boundaries in cell architecture and operational scheme for our next-generation product," said SungHoi Hur, Head of Flash Product & Technology at Samsung Electronics. "Through our latest V-NAND, Samsung will continue to set the trend for the high-performance, high-density solid state drive (SSD) market that meets the needs for the coming AI generation."

Suppliers Aim to Raise Contract Prices, But With Uncertain Demand, 2Q24 DRAM Price Increase Expected to Narrow to 3-8%

TrendForce's latest report reveals that despite DRAM suppliers' efforts to trim inventories, they have yet to reach healthy ranges. As they continue to improve their lose situations by boosting capacity utilization rates, the overall demand outlook for this year remains tepid. Additionally, significant price increases by suppliers since 4Q23 are expected to further diminish the momentum for inventory restocking. As a result, DRAM contract prices for the second quarter are projected to see a modest increase of 3-8%.

The shift toward DDR5-compatible CPUs is set to drive an increase in PC DRAM demand in the second quarter. As manufacturers move toward more advanced, cost-efficient production processes for DDR5, their profitability is expected to rise significantly. This anticipation of higher DRAM prices in 1H24 has led to suppliers to aim for price increases in Q2, targeting a 3-8% hike in PC DRAM contract prices. Notably, even though DDR5 prices have already seen a notable rise in Q1—exceeding the average increase for other products—the expected emergence of AI PC demand may lead to a slight moderation in DDR5 price increases in Q2.

Samsung Prepares Mach-1 Chip to Rival NVIDIA in AI Inference

During its 55th annual shareholders' meeting, Samsung Electronics announced its entry into the AI processor market with the upcoming launch of its Mach-1 AI accelerator chips in early 2025. The South Korean tech giant revealed its plans to compete with established players like NVIDIA in the rapidly growing AI hardware sector. The Mach-1 generation of chips is an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) design equipped with LPDDR memory that is envisioned to excel in edge computing applications. While Samsung does not aim to directly rival NVIDIA's ultra-high-end AI solutions like the H100, B100, or B200, the company's strategy focuses on carving out a niche in the market by offering unique features and performance enhancements at the edge, where low power and efficient computing is what matters the most.

According to SeDaily, the Mach-1 chips boast a groundbreaking feature that significantly reduces memory bandwidth requirements for inference to approximately 0.125x compared to existing designs, which is an 87.5% reduction. This innovation could give Samsung a competitive edge in terms of efficiency and cost-effectiveness. As the demand for AI-powered devices and services continues to soar, Samsung's foray into the AI chip market is expected to intensify competition and drive innovation in the industry. While NVIDIA currently holds a dominant position, Samsung's cutting-edge technology and access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing nodes could make it a formidable contender. The Mach-1 has been field-verified on an FPGA, while the final design is currently going through a physical design for SoC, which includes placement, routing, and other layout optimizations.

2024 HBM Supply Bit Growth Estimated to Reach 260%, Making Up 14% of DRAM Industry

TrendForce reports that significant capital investments have occurred in the memory sector due to the high ASP and profitability of HBM. Senior Vice President Avril Wu notes that by the end of 2024, the DRAM industry is expected to allocate approximately 250K/m (14%) of total capacity to producing HBM TSV, with an estimated annual supply bit growth of around 260%. Additionally, HBM's revenue share within the DRAM industry—around 8.4% in 2023—is projected to increase to 20.1% by the end of 2024.

HBM supply tightens with order volumes rising continuously into 2024
Wu explains that in terms of production differences between HBM and DDR5, the die size of HBM is generally 35-45% larger than DDR5 of the same process and capacity (for example, 24Gb compared to 24Gb). The yield rate (including TSV packaging) for HBM is approximately 20-30% lower than that of DDR5, and the production cycle (including TSV) is 1.5 to 2 months longer than DDR5.

HBM3 Initially Exclusively Supplied by SK Hynix, Samsung Rallies Fast After AMD Validation

TrendForce highlights the current landscape of the HBM market, which as of early 2024, is primarily focused on HBM3. NVIDIA's upcoming B100 or H200 models will incorporate advanced HBM3e, signaling the next step in memory technology. The challenge, however, is the supply bottleneck caused by both CoWoS packaging constraints and the inherently long production cycle of HBM—extending the timeline from wafer initiation to the final product beyond two quarters.

The current HBM3 supply for NVIDIA's H100 solution is primarily met by SK hynix, leading to a supply shortfall in meeting burgeoning AI market demands. Samsung's entry into NVIDIA's supply chain with its 1Znm HBM3 products in late 2023, though initially minor, signifies its breakthrough in this segment.

Global Top 10 Foundries Q4 Revenue Up 7.9%, Annual Total Hits US$111.54 Billion in 2023

The latest TrendForce report reveals a notable 7.9% jump in 4Q23 revenue for the world's top ten semiconductor foundries, reaching $30.49 billion. This growth is primarily driven by sustained demand for smartphone components, such as mid and low-end smartphone APs and peripheral PMICs. The launch season for Apple's latest devices also significantly contributed, fueling shipments for the A17 chipset and associated peripheral ICs, including OLED DDIs, CIS, and PMICs. TSMC's premium 3 nm process notably enhanced its revenue contribution, pushing its global market share past the 60% threshold this quarter.

TrendForce remarks that 2023 was a challenging year for foundries, marked by high inventory levels across the supply chain, a weak global economy, and a slow recovery in the Chinese market. These factors led to a downward cycle in the industry, with the top ten foundries experiencing a 13.6% annual drop as revenue reached just $111.54 billion. Nevertheless, 2024 promises a brighter outlook, with AI-driven demand expected to boost annual revenue by 12% to $125.24 billion. TSMC, benefiting from steady advanced process orders, is poised to far exceed the industry average in growth.

Asetek Q4 2023 Financial Report: Liquid Cooling Demand and SimSports Expansion Driving Growth

Asetek reported fourth-quarter revenue of $16.6 million, an increase of 75% from the same period of 2022. Revenue for the year amounted to $76.3 million, an increase of 51% from 2022. The growth in both periods mainly reflects increased shipments of liquid cooling products. Gross margin was 47% in the fourth quarter and 45% for 2023, compared with 41% in each of the same periods of 2022. The gross margin increase reflects a richer product mix, reduced costs and favorable exchange rates for both periods.

"2023 represented a material rebound for our Liquid Cooling business and expansion of the SimSports product program to wide acclaim from the sim racing community. I'm proud of delivering our second-best year ever measured by revenue and profit, reflecting strong demand for our products," said André Sloth Eriksen the CEO of Asetek. "We remain confident of the long-term potential in our markets, but at the same time we continue to experience low near-term revenue visibility. However, we are adapting and have aligned our strategic priorities accordingly, and our focus in 2024 is to execute on these."

NVIDIA Data Center GPU Business Predicted to Generate $87 Billion in 2024

Omdia, an independent analyst and consultancy firm, has bestowed the title of "Kingmaker" on NVIDIA—thanks to impressive 2023 results in the data server market. The research firm predicts very buoyant numbers for the financial year of 2024—their February Cloud and Datacenter Market snapshot/report guesstimates that Team Green's data center GPU business group has the potential to rake in $87 billion of revenue. Omdia's forecast is based on last year's numbers—Jensen & Co. managed to pull in $34 billion, courtesy of an unmatched/dominant position in the AI GPU industry sector. Analysts have estimated a 150% rise in revenues for in 2024—the majority of popular server manufacturers are reliant on NVIDIA's supply of chips. Super Micro Computer Inc. CEO—Charles Liang—disclosed that his business is experiencing strong demand for cutting-edge server equipment, but complications have slowed down production: "once we have more supply from the chip companies, from NVIDIA, we can ship more to customers."

Demand for AI inference in 2023 accounted for 40% of NVIDIA data center GPU revenue—according Omdia's expert analysis—they predict further growth this year. Team Green's comfortable AI-centric business model could expand to a greater extent—2023 market trends indicated that enterprise customers had spent less on acquiring/upgrading traditional server equipment. Instead, they prioritized the channeling of significant funds into "AI heavyweight hardware." Omdia's report discussed these shifted priorities: "This reaffirms our thesis that end users are prioritizing investment in highly configured server clusters for AI to the detriment of other projects, including delaying the refresh of older server fleets." Late February reports suggest that NVIDIA H100 GPU supply issues are largely resolved—with much improved production timeframes. Insiders at unnamed AI-oriented organizations have admitted that leadership has resorted to selling-off of excess stock. The Omdia forecast proposes—somewhat surprisingly—that H100 GPUs will continue to be "supply-constrained" throughout 2024.

Enterprise SSD Industry Hits US$23.1 Billion in Revenue in 4Q23, Growth Trend to Continue into Q1 This Year

The third quarter of 2023 witnessed suppliers dramatically cutting production, which underpinned enterprise SSD prices. The fourth quarter saw a resurgence in contract prices, driven by robust buying activity and heightened demand from server brands and buoyed by optimistic capital expenditure forecasts for 2024. This, combined with increased demand from various end products entering their peak sales period and ongoing reductions in OEM NAND Flash inventories, resulted in some capacity shortages. Consequently, fourth-quarter enterprise SSD prices surged by over 15%. TrendForce highlights that this surge in demand and prices led to a 47.6% QoQ increase in enterprise SSD industry revenues in 4Q23, reaching approximately $23.1 billion.

The stage is set for continued fervor as we settle into the new year and momentum from server brand orders continues to heat up—particularly from Chinese clients. On the supply side, falling inventory levels and efforts to exit loss-making positions have prompted enterprise SSD prices to climb, with contract prices expected to increase by over 25%. This is anticipated to fuel a 20% revenue growth in Q1.

NAND Flash Industry Revenue Grows 24.5% in Q4 2023, Expected to Increase Another 20% in Q1

TrendForce reports a substantial 24.5% QoQ increase in NAND Flash industry revenue, hitting US$11.49 billion in 4Q23. This surge is attributed to a stabilization in end-demand spurred by year-end promotions, along with an expansion in component market orders driven by price chasing, leading to robust bit shipments compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the corporate sector's continued positive outlook for 2024 demand—compared to 2023—and strategic stockpiling have further fueled this growth.

Looking ahead to 1Q24, despite it traditionally being an off-season, the NAND Flash industry is expected to see a continued increase in revenue by another 20%. This anticipation is underpinned by significant improvements in supply chain inventory levels and ongoing price rises, with clients ramping up their orders to sidestep potential supply shortages and escalating costs. The ongoing expansion of order sizes is expected to drive NAND Flash contract prices up by an average of 25%.

AMD Stalls on Instinct MI309 China AI Chip Launch Amid US Export Hurdles

According to the latest report from Bloomberg, AMD has hit a roadblock in offering its top-of-the-line AI accelerator in the Chinese market. The newest AI chip is called Instinct MI309, a lower-performance Instinct MI300 variant tailored to meet the latest US export rules for selling advanced chips to China-based entities. However, the Instinct MI309 still appears too powerful to gain unconditional approval from the US Department of Commerce, leaving AMD in need of an export license. Originally, the US Department of Commerce made a rule: Total Processing Performance (TPP) score should not exceed 4800, effectively capping AI performance at 600 FP8 TFLOPS. This rule ensures that processors with slightly lower performance may still be sold to Chinese customers, provided their performance density (PD) is sufficiently low.

However, AMD's latest creation, Instinct MI309, is everything but slow. Based on the powerful Instinct MI300, AMD has not managed to bring it down to acceptable levels to acquire a US export license from the Department of Commerce. It is still unknown which Chinese customer was trying to acquire AMD's Instinct MI309; however, it could be one of the Chinese AI labs trying to get ahold of more training hardware for their domestic models. NVIDIA has employed a similar tactic, selling A800 and H800 chips to China, until the US also ended the export of these chips to China. AI labs located in China can only use domestic hardware, including accelerators from Alibaba, Huawei, and Baidu. Cloud services hosting GPUs in US can still be accessed by Chinese companies, but that is currently under US regulators watchlist.
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