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Second Half Utilization Rate for 8-inch Production Capacity Expected to Drop to 50-60%; Chilly Demand Prospects Until 1Q24

TrendForce research indicates that in 1H23, the utilization rate of 8-inch production capacity primarily benefited from sporadic inventory restocking orders for Driver ICs in the second quarter. Additionally, wafer foundries initiated pricing strategies to encourage clients into early orders, offering solid backup. However, in 2H23, persistent macroeconomic and inventory challenges led to the evaporation of an anticipated demand surge.

Meanwhile, stockpiles in automotive and industrial control segments grew after meeting initial shortages, tempering demand. Under fierce price competition from PMIC leader Texas Instruments (TI), inventory reductions for Fabless and other IDMs were drastically inhibited. With IDMs ushering in output from their new plants and pulling back outsourced orders, this compounded reductions to wafer foundries. This dynamic saw 8-inch production capacity utilization dipping to 50-60% in the second half of the year. Both Tier 1 and Tier 2/3 8-inch wafer foundries saw a more lackluster capacity utilization performance compared to the first half of the year.

Report: Qualcomm Forces OEMs to Use Its Own PMICs for Oryon SoC

According to SemiAccurate, Qualcomm is currently navigating through many challenges with its Oryon SoC for laptops. The current problem is that Qualcomm is insisting on integrating its own PMICs (Power Management Integrated Circuits), which are inherently designed for cell phones, causing significant compatibility and efficiency issues. This approach is reported to have led to escalated costs and disagreements with OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers), seemingly hindering Qualcomm's foothold in the laptop sector. These PMICs are highlighted as unsuitable and highly priced, requiring the adoption of high-density interconnect (HDI) PCBs engineered explicitly for cell phones, thus not designed to meet the current requirements of laptops optimally. The subsequent spike in production costs has ignited conflicts with OEMs, with several contemplating withdrawing from the project.

In response to the rising tensions, Qualcomm is allegedly providing financial compensation to the OEMs, potentially leading to selling SoCs at cost. The only good thing is the reported success of Nuvia-based Oryon SoC. The silicon is perfect at A0 stepping, and performance is reportedly good. However, power usage and efficiency are still in question. Forcing OEMs to use proprietary PMICs will likely have far-reaching impacts on Qualcomm's market strategies and relationships with OEMs. With disputes like this, we expect that Qualcomm-powered laptops are nearing availability, and we could see them in the coming months.

GlobalFoundries Submits Applications for U.S. CHIPS and Science Act Funding

GlobalFoundries (GF) announced today it has applied for U.S. CHIPS and Science Act Funding, with two full applications submitted to the CHIPS Program Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The submitted applications are for capacity expansion and modernization of GF's U.S. manufacturing facilities.

"As the leading manufacturer of essential semiconductors for the U.S. government, and a vital supplier to the automotive, aerospace and defense, IoT and other markets, GF has submitted our applications to the CHIPS Program Office to participate in the federal grants and investment tax credits enabled by the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act," said Steven Grasso, senior director of global government affairs at GF. "This federal support is critical for GF to continue growing its U.S. manufacturing footprint, strengthening U.S economic security, supply chain resiliency, and national defense."

Canalys Predicts Upswing for North American PC Market

The latest Canalys data reveals that PC shipments (desktops, notebooks and workstations) in the US declined just 6% year-on-year to 18.2 million units in Q2 2023, marking a significant improvement compared to earlier quarters this year. Notebook (including mobile workstations) shipments were down 4% to 15.2 million units, bolstered by the return of Chromebook demand in the education sector. Desktops (including desktop workstations) suffered a steeper decline, with shipments falling 12% to 3.0 million units. The US tablet market faced a similarly modest decline, with shipments down 5% to 10.3 million units.

"Despite undergoing another year-on-year decline, the US PC market showed promising signs of improvement in the second quarter," said Ishan Dutt, Principal Analyst at Canalys. "With the buildup of channel inventories now largely cleared, pockets of demand strength are now being reflected in vendors' sell-in shipment performance. A key area that helped drive volumes was the return of demand from education institutions, backed by the latest wave of federal funding, ahead of a licensing cost increase for ChromeOS. This helped propel Chromebook shipments to 4.7 million units, the highest level since peak deployments during the first half of 2021."

NAND Flash Prices Expected to Stabilize and Rebound in Q4, Projected to Remain Steady or Increase 0-5%

In response to persistent softening in demand, Samsung has taken a decisive step: a sweeping 50% production cut from September, with the focus mainly on processes under 128 layers. According to TrendForce's research, other suppliers are also expected to follow suit and increase their production cutbacks in the fourth quarter to accelerate inventory reduction. With this maneuver in play, Q4 NAND Flash average prices are projected to either hold firm or witness a mild surge, possibly in the ballpark of 0~5%.

Aligning with TrendForce's early-year forecasts, NAND Flash prices are poised to rally ahead of DRAM. With mounting losses for NAND Flash vendors and sales prices nearing production costs, suppliers are opting to amplify production cuts to help stabilize and potentially increase prices. Notably, NAND Flash Wafer contract prices kickstarted their revival in August. Given expanding production curtailments, there's optimism around the resurgence of customer stockpiling, further amplifying price dynamics in September. Yet, for this positive price trajectory to sail smoothly into 2024, a sustained curtailing in production and a robust rebound in enterprise SSD purchase orders are pivotal.

AIB Shipments Climb in Q2 2023, with Unit Sales Increasing Q2Q

According to a new research report from the analyst firm Jon Peddie Research (JPR), unit shipments in the add-in board (AIB) market increased in Q2'23 from last quarter, while AMD gained market share. Quarter to quarter, graphics AIB shipments increased modestly, by 2.9%; however, shipments decreased by -36% year to year.

Since Q1 2000, over 2.10 billion graphics cards, worth about $476 billion, have been sold. The market shares for the desktop discrete GPU suppliers shifted in the quarter, as AMD's market share increased from last quarter and Nvidia's share increased from last year. Intel, which entered the AIB market in Q3'22 with the Arc A770 and A750, will start to increase market share in 2024.

Suppliers Successfully Hike Wafer Contract Prices, Triggering Short-Term Surge in NAND Spot Market

Recently, the spot market for NAND Flash chips has seen a rise in active price inquiries for certain products, a movement driven by successful increases in wafer contract prices. TrendForce reports this uptick primarily stems from negotiations in late August between NAND Flash suppliers and key Chinese module makers. These discussions led to a new wafer contract that successfully boosted the price of 512 Gb wafers by approximately 10%.

Other suppliers have also raised prices for their comparable products, signaling a shift in supplier sentiment: they are now less inclined to finalize deals at lower prices. This change has contributed to a short-term surge in the wafer spot market. Nevertheless, whether this surge in procurement is supported by actual end-user demand remains uncertain, as these orders have arisen in reaction to adjustments in supply-side pricing.

JPR: PC GPU Shipments increased by 11.6% Sequentially from Last Quarter and Decreased by -27% Year-to-Year

Jon Peddie Research reports the growth of the global PC-based graphics processor unit (GPU) market reached 61.6 million units in Q2'23 and PC CPU shipments decreased by -23% year over year. Overall, GPUs will have a compound annual growth rate of 3.70% during 2022-2026 and reach an installed base of 2,998 million units at the end of the forecast period. Over the next five years, the penetration of discrete GPUs (dGPUs) in the PC will grow to reach a level of 32%.

Year to year, total GPU shipments, which include all platforms and all types of GPUs, decreased by -27%, desktop graphics decreased by -36%, and notebooks decreased by -23%.

Huawei AI GPUs Reportedly as Performant as NVIDIA A100

Liu Qingfeng, the founder and chairman of Chinese AI firm iFlytek (or HKUST Xunfei according to ITHome) shared his opinions of incoming Huawei GPU technology at this year's Yabuli Entrepreneurs Forum. His team has been collaborating with key figures at the multinational technology corporation on a product that he reckons is just as capable as NVIDIA's very mature A100 tensor core accelerator. Liu referred to the model as a "compute GPU" which implies that this is an all-new product—Huawei has kept quiet on the AI hardware front since the 2019 launch of its Ascend 910 AI accelerator, so the iFlytek presentation has hinted about Huawei's ambitions to take on Team Green within the Chinese deep learning and artificial intelligence market sector.

Q2 DRAM Industry Revenue Rebounds with a 20.4% Quarterly Increase, Q3 Operating Profit Margin Expected to Turn from Loss to Gains

TrendForce reports that rising demand for AI servers has driven growth in HBM shipments. Combined with the wave of inventory buildup for DDR5 on the client side, the second quarter saw all three major DRAM suppliers experience shipment growth. Q2 revenue for the DRAM industry reached approximately US$11.43 billion, marking a 20.4% QoQ increase and halting a decline that persisted for three consecutive quarters. Among suppliers, SK hynix saw a significant quarterly growth of over 35% in shipments. The company's shipments of DDR5 and HBM, both of which have higher ASP, increased significantly. As a result, SK hynix's ASP grew counter-cyclically by 7-9%, driving its Q2 revenue to increase by nearly 50%. With revenue reaching US$3.44 billion, SK hynix claimed the second spot in the industry, leading growth in the sector.

Samsung, with its DDR5 process still at 1Ynm and limited shipments in the second quarter, experienced a drop in its ASP by around 7-9%. However, benefitting from inventory buildup by module houses and increased demand for AI server setups, Samsung saw a slight increase in shipments. This led to an 8.6% QoQ increase in Q2 revenue, reaching US$4.53 billion, securing them the top position. Micron, ranking third, was a bit late in HBM development. However, DDR5 shipments held a significant proportion, keeping their ASP relatively stable. Boosted by shipments, its revenue was around US$2.95 billion, a quarterly increase of 15.7%. Both companies saw a reduction in their market share.

Global Semiconductor Industry on Track for 2024 Recovery but Near-Term Headwinds Remain

With sequential IC sales declines beginning to moderate, the global semiconductor industry appears to be nearing the end of a downcycle and is expected to begin to recover in 2024, SEMI, in partnership with TechInsights, reported in the Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor. In Q3 2023, electronics sales are projected to post healthy quarter-on-quarter growth of 10%, while memory IC sales are expected to log double-digit growth for the first time since the downturn started in Q3 2022. Logic IC sales are predicted to remain stable and improve as demand gradually recovers.

Headwinds will continue for the semiconductor manufacturing sector in the second half of the year, SEMI and TechInsights reported. Drawdowns of high inventory at integrated device manufacturer (IDM) and fabless companies will continue to suppress fab utilization rates to much lower levels than those in the first half of 2023. The weakness is projected to extend declines in capital equipment billings and silicon shipments for the rest of the year despite stable results in the first half of 2023.

Global Server Shipments for 2024 Projected to Undergo Constrained Growth, Estimated Annual Increase of 2.3%

The global server market, grappling with the impact of worldwide inflation, saw significant shifts in 2023. Server OEMs and CSPs revamped their investment strategies, resulting in cutbacks in both annual shipments and ODM production plans. TrendForce observes that as the server market continues to decline, demand for AI surges. These combined factors have had a domino effect, compressing the rollout of new server platforms across the board.

Forecasts predict that this year's shipments of server motherboards are expected to decline by a market of 6~7%. Concurrently, shipments of whole servers aren't faring much better, with a projected decrease of 5~6%.

Jon Peddie Research: Client CPU Shipments up 17% From Last Quarter

Jon Peddie Research reports the growth of the global PC client-based CPU units market reached 53.6 million units in Q2'23, up 17%, and iGPU shipments increased by 14% to 49 million units. Year over year, iGPUs declined -29%.

Integrated GPUs will have a compound annual growth rate of 2.5% during 2022-2026 and reach an installed base of 4.8 billion units at the end of the forecast period. Over the next five years, the penetration of iGPUs in the PC will grow to reach a level of 98%.

Apple Reports Third Quarter Results, Revenue Down 1% YoY

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2023 third quarter ended July 1, 2023. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $81.8 billion, down 1 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.26, up 5 percent year over year.

"We are happy to report that we had an all-time revenue record in Services during the June quarter, driven by over 1 billion paid subscriptions, and we saw continued strength in emerging markets thanks to robust sales of iPhone," said Tim Cook, Apple's CEO. "From education to the environment, we are continuing to advance our values, while championing innovation that enriches the lives of our customers and leaves the world better than we found it."

Corsair Gaming Reports Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results, Revenue up 14.6% YoY

Corsair Gaming, Inc. ("Corsair" or the "Company"), a leading global provider and innovator of high-performance gear for gamers, streamers, content-creators, and gaming PC builders, today announced financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2023, and reiterated its financial outlook for the full year 2023.

Second Quarter 2023 Select Financial Metrics
  • Net revenue was $325.4 million compared to $283.9 million in the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 14.6%. Gaming components and systems segment net revenue was $246.7 million compared to $194.9 million in the second quarter of 2022, while Gamer and creator peripherals segment net revenue was $78.8 million compared to $89.0 million in the second quarter of 2022.
  • Net income attributable to common shareholders was $1.1 million, or net income of $0.01 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $59.4 million, or a net loss of $0.62 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2022.
  • Adjusted net income was $9.8 million, or net income of $0.09 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net loss of $19.0 million, or a net loss of $0.20 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $17.8 million, compared to a loss of $11.0 million in the second quarter of 2022.
  • Cash and cash equivalents were $184.0 million as of June 30, 2023.

Acer Announces Q2 2023 Net Income at NT$1.39 Billion

Acer Inc. announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2023: consolidated revenues were NT$58.26 billion with 11.1% growth quarter-on-quarter (QoQ); gross profits reached NT$6.26 billion with 10.7% margin; operating income was NT$1.05 billion, up 338.6% QoQ; net income was NT$1.39 billion, up 170.2% QoQ; and earnings per share was NT$0.46 in Q2'23 and NT$0.64 in 1H'23.

The company has weathered the post-pandemic industry stress test. Acer's computer business has bottomed out around May this year, while new graphic cards and connectivity products have reached markets. Acer's computers, displays, and most of the other businesses have all contributed toward revenues and profitability. With 10 public subsidiaries and more to come, Acer is progressively enhancing its corporate resilience.

[Editor's note: NT$1.39 Billion is around US$43.9 million]

NVIDIA Predicted to Pull in $300 Billion AI Revenues by 2027

NVIDIA has been raking in lots of cash this year and hit a major milestone back in late May, with a trillion dollar valuation—its stock price doubled thanks to upward trends in the artificial intelligence market, with growing global demand for AI-hardware. Business Insider believes that Team Green will continue to do very well for itself over the next couple of years: "Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh has given NVIDIA's stock price another 20% upside to run—and even this new target of $530 is "conservative," according to a Sunday client note seen by Insider. Rakesh's previous price target for NVIDIA was $400. NVIDIA shares closed 0.7% higher at $446.12 apiece on Monday. The stock has surged 205% so far this year."

Despite the emergence of competing hardware from the likes of AMD and Intel, Rakesh predicts that NVIDIA will maintain a dominant position in the AI chip market until at least 2027: "With demand for generative AI accelerating, we see significant opportunities for hardware suppliers powering the higher compute needs for large-language models, particularly AI powerhouse NVIDIA. Insider reports that the company: "could generate around $300 billion in AI-specific revenue by 2027 with a 75% market share of AI server units...That's 10 times his projection of $25 billion to $30 billion in AI revenues this year." Rakesh has reportedly stuck with a $140 buy rating and price target for AMD shares.

LG Announces Second-Quarter 2023 Financial Results

LG Electronics Inc. (LG) today announced second-quarter 2023 consolidated revenue of KRW 20 trillion with operating profit of KRW 741.9 billion. The company recorded the highest second-quarter revenues in company history. The second-quarter results underscore the success of the company's strategy to drive continuous growth while strengthening its business competitiveness. The record revenue reflects the company's actions to fundamentally improve its business structure by pursuing new platform-based service businesses and continuously expanding the business-to-business (B2B) segments. Profitability also was strong, although operating income was 6.3 percent lower than the second quarter last year, primarily due to a one-time second-quarter 2023 provision.

The company plans to drive further profitability improvements by optimizing efficiencies and by preemptively meeting market demands through enhanced demand forecasting and manufacturing competitiveness. LG also plans to continuously strengthen its online brand store and direct-to-consumer businesses.

Intel Refutes Alleged Core CPU Price Hikes, Current Prices Unchanged

Recent rumors suggested that Intel contemplated a price hike across all of its Core processors. This speculation originated from a forum staff member from PCGH who claimed to have received related information indicating a possible correspondence from Intel to its wholesalers about an impending price rise. In response to these rumors, Intel confirmed to HardwareLuxx that it has no plans to increase processor prices currently. The company stated that the Recommended Customer Price (RCP), which is generally quoted in US dollars for 1,000 unit prices as per their Ark database, will persist unchanged. Intel clarified that it hadn't shared such news with its customers or partners, nor was it considering a price change for its CPU portfolio at the moment.

The speculated price increase was reportedly associated with Intel's ongoing and planned factory constructions and company restructuring, according to PCGH. The need to refinance the 'fabs' was cited as the primary reason. Presently, Intel is streamlining its expenses, shutting down multiple smaller business areas, and investing significantly with state aid. However, it is doubtful that these reasons would be expressed in a wholesaler letter as grounds for price hikes. The PC market is currently sluggish, and though an uplift is predicted for the second half of this year, most segments of the PC market are still witnessing double-digit percentage reductions. In such a scenario, where buyers are becoming increasingly price-sensitive, and the market is trying to rebound, a price rise could be counterproductive.

Microsoft Releases FY23 Q4 Earnings, Xbox Hardware Revenue Down 13%

Microsoft Corp. today announced the following results for the quarter ended June 30, 2023, as compared to the corresponding period of last fiscal year:
  • Revenue was $56.2 billion and increased 8% (up 10% in constant currency)
  • Operating income was $24.3 billion and increased 18% (up 21% in constant currency)
  • Net income was $20.1 billion and increased 20% (up 23% in constant currency)
  • Diluted earnings per share was $2.69 and increased 21% (up 23% in constant currency)
"Organizations are asking not only how - but how fast - they can apply this next generation of AI to address the biggest opportunities and challenges they face - safely and responsibly," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. "We remain focused on leading the new AI platform shift, helping customers use the Microsoft Cloud to get the most value out of their digital spend, and driving operating leverage."

Worldwide Silicon Wafer Shipments Rise in Q2 2023

Worldwide silicon wafer shipments increased 2.0% quarter-over-quarter to 3,331 million square inches in the second quarter of 2023, down 10.1% from the 3,704 million square inches recorded during the same quarter last year, the SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) reported in its quarterly analysis of the silicon wafer industry.

"The semiconductor industry continues to work through excess inventory in various market segments, necessitating that fabs operate below full capacity," said Anna-Riikka Vuorikari-Antikainen, Chairman of SEMI SMG and Chief Commercial Officer at Okmetic. "As a result, silicon wafer shipments are lagging their 2022 peak. Second-quarter wafer shipments held steady quarter-on-quarter with 300 mm showing quarterly growth among all wafer sizes."

The European Union Council Approves Chips Act

The Council has today approved the regulation to strengthen Europe's semiconductor ecosystem, better known as the 'Chips Act'. This is the last step in the decision-making procedure. The Chips Act aims to create the conditions for the development of a European industrial base in the field of semiconductors, attract investment, promote research and innovation and prepare Europe for any future chip supply crisis. The programme should mobilise €43 billion in public and private investment (€3.3 billion from the EU budget), with the objective of doubling the EU's global market share in semiconductors, from 10% now to at least 20% by 2030.

With the Chips Act, Europe will be a frontrunner in the world semiconductors race. We can already see it in action: new production plants, new investments, new research projects. And in the long run, this will also contribute to the renaissance of our industry and the reduction of our foreign dependencies. - Héctor Gómez Hernández, Spanish Minister for Industry, Trade and Tourism

ASML reports €6.9 billion net sales and €1.9 billion net income in Q2 2023

Today ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2023 second-quarter results.
  • Q2 net sales of €6.9 billion, gross margin of 51.3%, net income of €1.9 billion
  • Quarterly net bookings in Q2 of €4.5 billion of which €1.6 billion is EUV
  • ASML expects Q3 2023 net sales between €6.5 billion and €7.0 billion and a gross margin of around 50%
  • ASML expects 2023 net sales growth towards 30% compared to 2022
CEO statement and outlook
"Our second-quarter net sales came in at €6.9 billion, at the high end of our guidance, with a gross margin of 51.3%, higher than guided, primarily driven by additional DUV immersion revenue in the quarter. "Our customers across different market segments are currently more cautious due to continued macro-economic uncertainties, and therefore expect a later recovery of their markets. Also, the shape of the recovery slope is still unclear. However, our strong backlog of around €38 billion provides us with a good basis to navigate these short-term uncertainties.

ASP of NAND Flash to Continue Falling 3~8% in 3Q23, Only Wafer Prices to Increase

TrendForce reports that OEMs have continued making concerted efforts to scale back production. However, given that the trajectory of market demand is still unclear, it's expected that the NAND Flash market will continue to be in a state of oversupply in 3Q23. Cautious inventory management by buyers is preventing a stabilization in NAND Flash prices even with an anticipated seasonal surge in demand for 2H23. TrendForce predicts that NAND Flash wafers will be the first to see a price hike in 3Q23 as prices for module products such as SSDs, eMMCs, and UFS will likely continue to fall due to tepid downstream demand. Consequently, the overall ASP of NAND Flash is forecast to continue dropping by about 3~8% in 3Q23, though a possibility exists prices may recover in 4Q23.

Client SSD: Although notebook shipments are expected to gradually recover in 3Q23, reversing an oversupply of SSD will continue to be challenging. Furthermore, a portion of suppliers have implemented aggressive promotions to secure customer orders and hit shipping targets in light of weakened demand and less-than-satisfactory order volumes from major clients, putting pressure on other suppliers. TrendForce estimates that the ASP of client SSDs will fall by 8~13% in the third quarter.

Global Notebook Shipments on the Rebound, Predicted to Surge 15.7% in 2Q23

TrendForce has predicted a noticeable recovery in the global notebook market for 2Q23. Shipments are projected to hit 40.45 million units—a QoQ increase of 15.7%. This marks a pivotal turnaround after six consecutive quarters of decline. However, despite this growth, shipments are still down by 11.6% YoY. TrendForce expects this upward trend to persist into the third quarter, estimating global notebook shipments to reach 43.08 million units, albeit at a decelerated growth rate of 6.5%.

Notebook brands were primarily focused on reducing excess terminal inventory in 1Q23, which led to slower procurement and subsequently impacted ODM sell-in sales. However, as Q2 unfolds and inventory levels of finished products and components start to stabilize, supply chain pressures should ease, triggering a wave of restocking demand. This trend is expected to extend into Q3—a season typically characterized by robust sales due to back-to-school demand and shopping promotions, further stimulating inventory demand and fostering further growth in global notebook shipments.
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