Monday, July 22nd 2024
Memory Industry Revenue Expected to Reach Record High in 2025 Due to Increasing Average Prices and the Rise of HBM and QLC
TrendForce's latest report on the memory industry reveals that DRAM and NAND Flash revenues are expected to see significant increases of 75% and 77%, respectively, in 2024, driven by increased bit demand, an improved supply-demand structure, and the rise of high-value products like HBM.
Furthermore, industry revenues are projected to continue growing in 2025, with DRAM expected to increase by 51% and NAND Flash by 29%, reaching record highs. This growth is anticipated to revive capital expenditures and boost demand for upstream raw materials, although it will also increase cost pressure for memory buyers.
Rise of HBM boosts DRAM revenue
TrendForce estimates that benefiting from an increase in average DRAM prices by 53% in 2024 and 35% in 2025, DRAM revenue will reach US$90.7 billion in 2024—a 75% YoY increase—and $136.5 billion in 2025—a 51% YoY increase.
TrendForce identifies four key factors driving the revenue growth of DRAM: the rise of HBM, the generational evolution of general DRAM products, restrained capital expenditures by manufacturers limiting supply, and the recovery in server demand. Compared to general DRAM, HBM not only boosts bit demand but also raises the industry's average price. HBM is expected to contribute 5% of DRAM bit shipments and 20% of revenue in 2024.
Additionally, the penetration of high-value products like DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X will help raise the industry's average price. TrendForce estimates that DDR5 will account for 40% of server DRAM bit shipments in 2024, increasing to 60-65% in 2025. LPDDR5/5X is expected to contribute 50% and 60% of mobile DRAM bit shipments in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
High-capacity QLC enterprise SSDs and UFS to drive record NAND flash revenue in 2025
TrendForce projects that NAND Flash revenue will reach $67.4 billion in 2024, a 77% YoY increase. In 2025, driven by the rise of high-capacity QLC enterprise SSDs, the adoption of QLC UFS in smartphones, restrained capital expenditures by manufacturers limiting supply, and the recovery in server demand, NAND Flash revenue is expected to reach $87 billion—a 29% YoY increase. North American CSPs have already begun extensively adopting QLC enterprise SSDs in inference AI servers, especially those with high-capacity specifications.
TrendForce estimates that QLC will contribute 20% of NAND Flash bit shipments in 2024, with this share expected to increase in 2025. In smartphone applications, QLC is expected to gradually penetrate the UFS market, with some Chinese smartphone manufacturers planning to adopt QLC UFS solutions starting in Q4 2024. Apple is anticipated to begin incorporating QLC into iPhones by 2026.
Rising DRAM and NAND Flash revenues set to impact industry ecosystem
TrendForce reports that with record-breaking revenues in the memory industry, manufacturers will have sufficient cash flow to accelerate investments. Capital expenditures in DRAM and NAND Flash industries are expected to increase by 25% and 10%, respectively, in 2025, with the potential for further upward revisions.
The expansion of memory production will boost demand for upstream raw materials such as silicon wafers and chemicals. Conversely, rising memory prices will increase the cost of electronic products. ODM/OEM companies will find it challenging to fully pass on these costs to retail prices, leading to compressed profit margins. This cost increase may also dampen end-user sales, potentially causing a decline in demand.
Source:
TrendForce
Furthermore, industry revenues are projected to continue growing in 2025, with DRAM expected to increase by 51% and NAND Flash by 29%, reaching record highs. This growth is anticipated to revive capital expenditures and boost demand for upstream raw materials, although it will also increase cost pressure for memory buyers.
TrendForce estimates that benefiting from an increase in average DRAM prices by 53% in 2024 and 35% in 2025, DRAM revenue will reach US$90.7 billion in 2024—a 75% YoY increase—and $136.5 billion in 2025—a 51% YoY increase.
TrendForce identifies four key factors driving the revenue growth of DRAM: the rise of HBM, the generational evolution of general DRAM products, restrained capital expenditures by manufacturers limiting supply, and the recovery in server demand. Compared to general DRAM, HBM not only boosts bit demand but also raises the industry's average price. HBM is expected to contribute 5% of DRAM bit shipments and 20% of revenue in 2024.
Additionally, the penetration of high-value products like DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X will help raise the industry's average price. TrendForce estimates that DDR5 will account for 40% of server DRAM bit shipments in 2024, increasing to 60-65% in 2025. LPDDR5/5X is expected to contribute 50% and 60% of mobile DRAM bit shipments in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
High-capacity QLC enterprise SSDs and UFS to drive record NAND flash revenue in 2025
TrendForce projects that NAND Flash revenue will reach $67.4 billion in 2024, a 77% YoY increase. In 2025, driven by the rise of high-capacity QLC enterprise SSDs, the adoption of QLC UFS in smartphones, restrained capital expenditures by manufacturers limiting supply, and the recovery in server demand, NAND Flash revenue is expected to reach $87 billion—a 29% YoY increase. North American CSPs have already begun extensively adopting QLC enterprise SSDs in inference AI servers, especially those with high-capacity specifications.
TrendForce estimates that QLC will contribute 20% of NAND Flash bit shipments in 2024, with this share expected to increase in 2025. In smartphone applications, QLC is expected to gradually penetrate the UFS market, with some Chinese smartphone manufacturers planning to adopt QLC UFS solutions starting in Q4 2024. Apple is anticipated to begin incorporating QLC into iPhones by 2026.
Rising DRAM and NAND Flash revenues set to impact industry ecosystem
TrendForce reports that with record-breaking revenues in the memory industry, manufacturers will have sufficient cash flow to accelerate investments. Capital expenditures in DRAM and NAND Flash industries are expected to increase by 25% and 10%, respectively, in 2025, with the potential for further upward revisions.
The expansion of memory production will boost demand for upstream raw materials such as silicon wafers and chemicals. Conversely, rising memory prices will increase the cost of electronic products. ODM/OEM companies will find it challenging to fully pass on these costs to retail prices, leading to compressed profit margins. This cost increase may also dampen end-user sales, potentially causing a decline in demand.
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