TrendForce highlights the current landscape of the HBM market, which as of early 2024, is primarily focused on HBM3. NVIDIA's upcoming B100 or H200 models will incorporate advanced HBM3e, signaling the next step in memory technology. The challenge, however, is the supply bottleneck caused by both CoWoS packaging constraints and the inherently long production cycle of HBM—extending the timeline from wafer initiation to the final product beyond two quarters.

The current HBM3 supply for NVIDIA's H100 solution is primarily met by SK hynix, leading to a supply shortfall in meeting burgeoning AI market demands. Samsung's entry into NVIDIA's supply chain with its 1Znm HBM3 products in late 2023, though initially minor, signifies its breakthrough in this segment.

The latest TrendForce report reveals a notable 7.9% jump in 4Q23 revenue for the world's top ten semiconductor foundries, reaching $30.49 billion. This growth is primarily driven by sustained demand for smartphone components, such as mid and low-end smartphone APs and peripheral PMICs. The launch season for Apple's latest devices also significantly contributed, fueling shipments for the A17 chipset and associated peripheral ICs, including OLED DDIs, CIS, and PMICs. TSMC's premium 3 nm process notably enhanced its revenue contribution, pushing its global market share past the 60% threshold this quarter.

TrendForce remarks that 2023 was a challenging year for foundries, marked by high inventory levels across the supply chain, a weak global economy, and a slow recovery in the Chinese market. These factors led to a downward cycle in the industry, with the top ten foundries experiencing a 13.6% annual drop as revenue reached just $111.54 billion. Nevertheless, 2024 promises a brighter outlook, with AI-driven demand expected to boost annual revenue by 12% to $125.24 billion. TSMC, benefiting from steady advanced process orders, is poised to far exceed the industry average in growth.

Asetek reported fourth-quarter revenue of $16.6 million, an increase of 75% from the same period of 2022. Revenue for the year amounted to $76.3 million, an increase of 51% from 2022. The growth in both periods mainly reflects increased shipments of liquid cooling products. Gross margin was 47% in the fourth quarter and 45% for 2023, compared with 41% in each of the same periods of 2022. The gross margin increase reflects a richer product mix, reduced costs and favorable exchange rates for both periods.

"2023 represented a material rebound for our Liquid Cooling business and expansion of the SimSports product program to wide acclaim from the sim racing community. I'm proud of delivering our second-best year ever measured by revenue and profit, reflecting strong demand for our products," said André Sloth Eriksen the CEO of Asetek. "We remain confident of the long-term potential in our markets, but at the same time we continue to experience low near-term revenue visibility. However, we are adapting and have aligned our strategic priorities accordingly, and our focus in 2024 is to execute on these."

Omdia, an independent analyst and consultancy firm, has bestowed the title of "Kingmaker" on NVIDIA—thanks to impressive 2023 results in the data server market. The research firm predicts very buoyant numbers for the financial year of 2024—their February Cloud and Datacenter Market snapshot/report guesstimates that Team Green's data center GPU business group has the potential to rake in $87 billion of revenue. Omdia's forecast is based on last year's numbers—Jensen & Co. managed to pull in $34 billion, courtesy of an unmatched/dominant position in the AI GPU industry sector. Analysts have estimated a 150% rise in revenues for in 2024—the majority of popular server manufacturers are reliant on NVIDIA's supply of chips. Super Micro Computer Inc. CEO—Charles Liang—disclosed that his business is experiencing strong demand for cutting-edge server equipment, but complications have slowed down production: "once we have more supply from the chip companies, from NVIDIA, we can ship more to customers."

Demand for AI inference in 2023 accounted for 40% of NVIDIA data center GPU revenue—according Omdia's expert analysis—they predict further growth this year. Team Green's comfortable AI-centric business model could expand to a greater extent—2023 market trends indicated that enterprise customers had spent less on acquiring/upgrading traditional server equipment. Instead, they prioritized the channeling of significant funds into "AI heavyweight hardware." Omdia's report discussed these shifted priorities: "This reaffirms our thesis that end users are prioritizing investment in highly configured server clusters for AI to the detriment of other projects, including delaying the refresh of older server fleets." Late February reports suggest that NVIDIA H100 GPU supply issues are largely resolved—with much improved production timeframes. Insiders at unnamed AI-oriented organizations have admitted that leadership has resorted to selling-off of excess stock. The Omdia forecast proposes—somewhat surprisingly—that H100 GPUs will continue to be "supply-constrained" throughout 2024.

The third quarter of 2023 witnessed suppliers dramatically cutting production, which underpinned enterprise SSD prices. The fourth quarter saw a resurgence in contract prices, driven by robust buying activity and heightened demand from server brands and buoyed by optimistic capital expenditure forecasts for 2024. This, combined with increased demand from various end products entering their peak sales period and ongoing reductions in OEM NAND Flash inventories, resulted in some capacity shortages. Consequently, fourth-quarter enterprise SSD prices surged by over 15%. TrendForce highlights that this surge in demand and prices led to a 47.6% QoQ increase in enterprise SSD industry revenues in 4Q23, reaching approximately $23.1 billion.

The stage is set for continued fervor as we settle into the new year and momentum from server brand orders continues to heat up—particularly from Chinese clients. On the supply side, falling inventory levels and efforts to exit loss-making positions have prompted enterprise SSD prices to climb, with contract prices expected to increase by over 25%. This is anticipated to fuel a 20% revenue growth in Q1.

TrendForce reports a substantial 24.5% QoQ increase in NAND Flash industry revenue, hitting US$11.49 billion in 4Q23. This surge is attributed to a stabilization in end-demand spurred by year-end promotions, along with an expansion in component market orders driven by price chasing, leading to robust bit shipments compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the corporate sector's continued positive outlook for 2024 demand—compared to 2023—and strategic stockpiling have further fueled this growth.

Looking ahead to 1Q24, despite it traditionally being an off-season, the NAND Flash industry is expected to see a continued increase in revenue by another 20%. This anticipation is underpinned by significant improvements in supply chain inventory levels and ongoing price rises, with clients ramping up their orders to sidestep potential supply shortages and escalating costs. The ongoing expansion of order sizes is expected to drive NAND Flash contract prices up by an average of 25%.

According to the latest report from Bloomberg, AMD has hit a roadblock in offering its top-of-the-line AI accelerator in the Chinese market. The newest AI chip is called Instinct MI309, a lower-performance Instinct MI300 variant tailored to meet the latest US export rules for selling advanced chips to China-based entities. However, the Instinct MI309 still appears too powerful to gain unconditional approval from the US Department of Commerce, leaving AMD in need of an export license. Originally, the US Department of Commerce made a rule: Total Processing Performance (TPP) score should not exceed 4800, effectively capping AI performance at 600 FP8 TFLOPS. This rule ensures that processors with slightly lower performance may still be sold to Chinese customers, provided their performance density (PD) is sufficiently low.

However, AMD's latest creation, Instinct MI309, is everything but slow. Based on the powerful Instinct MI300, AMD has not managed to bring it down to acceptable levels to acquire a US export license from the Department of Commerce. It is still unknown which Chinese customer was trying to acquire AMD's Instinct MI309; however, it could be one of the Chinese AI labs trying to get ahold of more training hardware for their domestic models. NVIDIA has employed a similar tactic, selling A800 and H800 chips to China, until the US also ended the export of these chips to China. AI labs located in China can only use domestic hardware, including accelerators from Alibaba, Huawei, and Baidu. Cloud services hosting GPUs in US can still be accessed by Chinese companies, but that is currently under US regulators watchlist.

This announcement was shared with EA Entertainment employees by Laura Miele, President of EA Entertainment and Technology: "Hi Everyone, over the past six months, you've heard me talk about aligning our portfolio and organization to deliver on our ambitious growth strategy. One of the essential parts of delivering on our plans is making sure we are listening to our players and investing in the games they want to play. As Andrew noted in his EA Action, the reality of a creative business is that market conditions and players' needs are always changing. We're seeing a rapid player shift toward large open-world games, massive communities, and live services. With that in mind, we have shared the following updates with our teams:"

Respawn:
Respawn's unique ability to connect with players and create exceptional game experiences is unrivaled in entertainment. As we've looked at Respawn's portfolio over the last few months, what's clear is the games our players are most excited about are Jedi and Respawn's rich library of owned brands. Knowing this, we have decided to pivot away from early development on a Star Wars FPS Action game to focus our efforts on new projects based on our owned brands while providing support for existing games. It's always hard to walk away from a project, and this decision is not a reflection of the team's talent, tenacity, or passion they have for the game. Giving fans the next installments of the iconic franchises they want is the definition of blockbuster storytelling and the right place to focus.

TrendForce underscores that the primary momentum for server shipments this year remains with American CSPs. However, due to persistently high inflation and elevated corporate financing costs curtailing capital expenditures, overall demand has not yet returned to pre-pandemic growth levels. Global server shipments are estimated to reach approximately. 13.654 million units in 2024, an increase of about 2.05% YoY. Meanwhile, the market continues to focus on the deployment of AI servers, with their shipment share estimated at around 12.1%.

Foxconn is expected to see the highest growth rate, with an estimated annual increase of about 5-7%. This growth includes significant orders such as Dell's 16G platform, AWS Graviton 3 and 4, Google Genoa, and Microsoft Gen9. In terms of AI server orders, Foxconn has made notable inroads with Oracle and has also secured some AWS ASIC orders.

Japanese tech billionaire and founder of the SoftBank Group, Masayoshi Son, is embarking on a hugely ambitious new project to build an AI chip company that aims to rival NVIDIA, the current leader in AI semiconductor solutions. Codenamed "Izanagi" after the Japanese god of creation, Son aims to raise up to $100 billion in funding for the new venture. With his company SoftBank having recently scaled back investments in startups, Son is now setting his sights on the red-hot AI chip sector. Izanagi would leverage SoftBank's existing chip design firm, Arm, to develop advanced semiconductors tailored for artificial intelligence computing. The startup would use Arm's instruction set for the chip's processing elements. This could pit Izanagi directly against NVIDIA's leadership position in AI chips. Son has a chest of $41 billion in cash at SoftBank that he can deploy for Izanagi.

Additionally, he is courting sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East to contribute up to $70 billion in additional capital. In total, Son may be seeking up to $100 billion to bankroll Izanagi into a chip powerhouse. AI chips are seeing surging demand as machine learning and neural networks require specialized semiconductors that can process massive datasets. NVIDIA and other names like Intel, AMD, and select startups have capitalized on this trend. However, Son believes the market has room for another major player. Izanagi would focus squarely on developing bleeding-edge AI chip architectures to power the next generation of artificial intelligence applications. It is still unclear if this would be an AI training or AI inference project, but given that the training market is currently bigger as we are in the early buildout phase of AI infrastructure, the consensus might settle on training. With his track record of bold bets, Son is aiming very high with Izanagi. It's a hugely ambitious goal, but Son has defied expectations before. Project Izanagi will test the limits of even his vision and financial firepower.

This week, Cisco and NVIDIA have announced plans to deliver AI infrastructure solutions for the data center that are easy to deploy and manage, enabling the massive computing power that enterprises need to succeed in the AI era. "AI is fundamentally changing how we work and live, and history has shown that a shift of this magnitude is going to require enterprises to rethink and re-architect their infrastructures," said Chuck Robbins, Chair and CEO, Cisco. "Strengthening our great partnership with NVIDIA is going to arm enterprises with the technology and the expertise they need to build, deploy, manage, and secure AI solutions at scale." Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA said: "Companies everywhere are racing to transform their businesses with generative AI. Working closely with Cisco, we're making it easier than ever for enterprises to obtain the infrastructure they need to benefit from AI, the most powerful technology force of our lifetime."

A Powerful Partnership
Cisco, with its industry-leading expertise in Ethernet networking and extensive partner ecosystem, together with NVIDIA, the inventor of the GPU that fueled the AI boom, share a vision and commitment to help customers navigate the transitions for AI with highly secure Ethernet-based infrastructure. Cisco and NVIDIA have offered a broad range of integrated product solutions over the past several years across Webex collaboration devices and data center compute environments to enable hybrid workforces with flexible workspaces, AI-powered meetings and virtual desktop infrastructure.

On February 1, ASUS announced that it has been included in Fortune's list of the 2024 World's Most Admired Companies, the ninth time it has achieved this honor. ASUS was recognized for its extraordinary achievements in areas such as global competitiveness, social responsibility, product service quality, and more. "We are honored to be recognized by Fortune Magazine once again," said Jonney Shih, Chairman of ASUS. "The reputation we have achieved is testament to our Design Thinking approach and our commitment to leveraging collective wisdom to bring users seamless and joyful digital experiences."

ASUS continues to relentlessly pursue incredible technological innovation, maintaining global leadership in motherboards, computers, monitors, graphics cards, and routers. Through collaborations with strategic partners, ASUS has strengthened its presence in the gaming, commercial, and industrial markets. Fueled by artificial intelligence, ASUS has also rapidly advanced its AI applications, integrating cloud services, efficient computing power, and big-data platforms, as well as expanding into diverse fields such as smart healthcare, smart transportation, smart manufacturing, smart education, smart cloud, and smart retail. Leveraging its impressive suite of services, ASUS is firmly establishing itself as a comprehensive AI enterprise.

In 2024, the tech industry remains steadfastly focused on AI, with the continued rollout of advanced AI chips leading to significant enhancements in processing speeds. TrendForce posits that this advancement is set to drive growth in both DRAM and NAND Flash across various AI applications, including smartphones, servers, and notebooks. The server sector is expected to see the most significant growth, with content per box for server DRAM projected to rise by 17.3% annually, while enterprise SSDs are forecast to increase by 13.2%. The market penetration rate for AI smartphones and AI PCs is expected to experience noticeable growth in 2025 and is anticipated to further drive the average content per box upward.

Looking first at smartphones, despite chipmakers focusing on improving processing performance, the absence of new AI functionalities has somewhat constrained the impact of AI. Memory prices plummeted in 2023 due to oversupply, making lower-priced options attractive and leading to a 17.5% increase in average DRAM capacity and a 19.2% increase in NAND Flash capacity per smartphone. However, with no new applications expected in 2024, the growth rate in content per box for both DRAM and NAND Flash in smartphones is set to slow down, estimated at 14.1% and 9.3%, respectively.

Kenichiro Yoshida—Sony Group Corporation Chairman, President And CEO—appeared as a guest on Norges Bank Investment Management's Good Company videocast late last year. News outlets have sluggishly picked up on some interesting tidbits from the November 2023 interview—the Sony boss has discussed his gaming division's ambitions in the recent past, but (host) Nicolai Tangen managed to pry out a clearer picture of PlayStation's ambitions for the future. Yoshida-san has an all-encompassing vision for the brand: "In short, it will be ubiquitous wherever there is computing users will be able to play their favorite games seamlessly, gamers will be able to find a place to play in different spaces, while PlayStation will remain our core product, we will expand our gaming experiences to PC, Mobile and Cloud." Gamers on the PC platform have to wait roughly two to three years for PlayStation exclusive titles to breakaway from home consoles origins—it is encouraging to hear that a greater number of conversions could be in the pipeline (with shorter lead times...hopefully).

The discussion moved onto game subscription services—a hotbed talking point as of late—Yoshida seemed to be happy with his company's normal mode of operation: "Well, we do subscription business model. At the same time, people usually play one game at the time, so an all-you-can-eat type of many games may not be so valuable compared with video streaming services. We have kind of balanced a hybrid service on PlayStation Network: subscription as well as paid content." Microsoft is a market leader with its Xbox and PC Game Pass services, now bolstered with a takeover of Activision Blizzard—the Sony CEO remained calm regarding his firm's main rival: "Healthy competition is necessary for the Games Industry to grow and at Sony we believe it is important to provide gamers with different options to play so we will continue our efforts to achieve this."

TrendForce's latest analysis reveals that the downswing of DRAM contract prices, which had lasted for eight consecutive quarters since 4Q21, was finally reversed in 4Q23. Likewise, NAND Flash rebounded in 3Q23 after four quarters of decline. The persistence of this rally in memory prices during 2024 will largely hinge on suppliers' ongoing and effective control over their capacity utilization rates.

According to TrendForce Senior Research Vice President, Avril Wu, the first quarter of this year is already shaping up to be a season of growth, with TrendForce confirming its initial projections: a hike of around 13-18% QoQ for DRAM contract prices and a hike of 18-23% for NAND Flash contract prices. Despite a generally conservative outlook for overall market demand in 2Q24, suppliers in both DRAM and NAND Flash markets have begun raising their capacity utilization rates since the end of 4Q23. Furthermore, NAND Flash buyers are anticipated to complete their inventory restocking in advance in 1Q24. Due to the rise in capacity utilization rates and earlier restocking efforts, leading to a more moderated QoQ price increase of 3-8% for both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices for 2Q24.

TrendForce reports that the DRAM contract prices are estimated to increase by approximately 13-18% in 1Q24 with mobile DRAM leading the surge. It appears that due to the unclear demand outlook for the entire year of 2024, manufacturers believe that sustained production cuts are necessary to maintain the supply-demand balance in the memory industry.

PC DRAM: The market is buzzing with unfilled DDR5 orders, while savvy buyers brace for a continued surge in DDR4 prices, keeping procurement engines running. This trend, however, is shadowed by a gradual industry pivot toward DDR5, casting uncertainty over the expansion of DDR4 bit procurement volumes. Despite this, both DDR4 and DDR5 prices have yet to hit the target set by manufacturers, and buyers seem ready to ride the wave of price hikes into 1Q24. This sets the stage for an estimated 10-15% in PC DRAM contract prices, with DDR5 poised to take the lead over DDR4 in this pricing rally.

According to the latest round of reports, AMD has decided not to include China in the initial global launch of its upcoming Radeon RX 7600 XT graphics card. The RX 7600 XT, featuring 16 GB of memory and based on AMD's next-generation RDNA 3 architecture, was expected to launch soon at a price of around $300. However, the company is currently re-evaluating its Chinese GPU launch strategy due to the runaway success of its existing Radeon RX 6750 Golden Rabbit Edition (GRE) series in the region. The RX 6750 GRE cards with 10 GB and 12 GB configurations retail between $269-$289 in China, offering exceptional value compared to rival NVIDIA RTX models. AMD seems hesitant to risk undercutting sales of its popular RX 6750 GPUs by launching the newer 7600 XT.

While the RX 7600 XT promises more raw performance thanks to advanced RDNA 3 architecture, 6750 GRE, with its RDNA 2 design, seemingly remains efficient enough for most Chinese mainstream gamers. With the RX 6750 GRE still selling strongly in China, AMD has postponed the RX 7600 XT introduction for this key market. Final launch timelines for the 7600 XT in China and globally remain unconfirmed by AMD at time of writing. The company appears to be treading cautiously amidst the shifting competitive landscape.

Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU) today announced results for its first quarter of fiscal 2024, which ended November 30, 2023.

Fiscal Q1 2024 highlights

• Revenue of $4.73 billion versus $4.01 billion for the prior quarter and $4.09 billion for the same period last year
• GAAP net loss of $1.23 billion, or $1.12 per diluted share
• Non-GAAP net loss of $1.05 billion, or $0.95 per diluted share
• Operating cash flow of $1.40 billion versus $249 million for the prior quarter and $943 million for the same period last year

"Micron's strong execution and pricing drove better-than-anticipated first quarter financial results," said Micron Technology President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra. "We expect our business fundamentals to improve throughout 2024, with record industry TAM projected for calendar 2025. Our industry-leading High Bandwidth Memory for data center AI applications illustrates the strength of our technology and product roadmaps, and we are well positioned to capitalize on the immense opportunities artificial intelligence is fueling across end markets."

Chinese chipmaker Montage Technology has unveiled new data center processors under its Jintide brand based on Intel's latest Emerald Rapids Xeon architecture. The 5th generation Jintide lineup offers anywhere from 16-core to 48-core options for enterprise customers needing advanced security specific to China's government and enterprise requirements. Leveraging a long-running joint venture with Intel, Jintide combines standard high-performance Xeon microarchitectures with added on-die monitoring and encryption blocks, PrC (Pre-check) and DSC (Dynamic Security Check), which are security-hardened for sensitive Chinese use cases. The processors retain all core performance attributes of Intel's vanilla offerings thanks to IP access, only with extra protections mandated by national security interests. While missing the very highest core counts, the new Jintide chips otherwise deliver similar Emerald Rapids features like 8-channel DDR5-5600 memory, 80 lanes of speedy PCIe 5.0, and elevated clock speeds over 4.0 GHz at peak. The Jintide processors have 2S scaling, which allows for dual-socket systems with up to 96 cores and 192 threads.

Pricing remains unpublished but likely carries a premium over Intel list prices thanks to the localized security customization required. However, with Jintide uniquely meeting strict Chinese government and data regulations, cost becomes secondary for target customers needing compliant data center hardware. After matching lockstep with Intel's last several leading Xeon generations, Jintide's continued iteration highlights its strategic value in enabling high-performance domestic infrastructure as China eyes IT supply chain autonomy. Intel gets expanded access to the growing Chinese server market, while Chinese partners utilize Intel IP to strengthen localized offerings without foreign dependency. It manifests the delicate balance of advanced chip joint ventures between global tech giants and rising challengers. More details about the SKUs are listed in the table below.

Huawei's subsidiary HiSilicon has made significant strides in the independent R&D of AI chips, launching the next-gen Ascend 910B. These chips are utilized not only in Huawei's public cloud infrastructure but also sold to other Chinese companies. This year, Baidu ordered over a thousand Ascend 910B chips from Huawei to build approximately 200 AI servers. Additionally, in August, Chinese company iFlytek, in partnership with Huawei, released the "Gemini Star Program," a hardware and software integrated device for exclusive enterprise LLMs, equipped with the Ascend 910B AI acceleration chip, according to TrendForce's research.

TrendForce conjectures that the next-generation Ascend 910B chip is likely manufactured using SMIC's N+2 process. However, the production faces two potential risks. Firstly, as Huawei recently focused on expanding its smartphone business, the N+2 process capacity at SMIC is almost entirely allocated to Huawei's smartphone products, potentially limiting future capacity for AI chips. Secondly, SMIC remains on the Entity List, possibly restricting access to advanced process equipment.

TrendForce's research indicates a dynamic third quarter for the global foundry industry, marked by an uptick in urgent orders for smartphone and notebook components. This surge was fueled by healthy inventory levels and the release of new iPhone and Android devices in 2H23. Despite persisting inflation risks and market uncertainties, these orders were predominantly executed as rush orders. Additionally, TSMC and Samsung's high-cost 3 nm manufacturing process had a positive impact on revenues, driving the 3Q23 value of the top ten global foundries to approximately US$28.29 billion—a 7.9% QoQ increase.

Looking ahead to 4Q23, the anticipation of year-end festive demand is expected to sustain the inflow of urgent orders for smartphones and laptops, particularly for smartphone components. Although the end-user market is yet to fully recover, pre-sales season stockpiling for Chinese Android smartphones appears to be slightly better than expected, with demand for mid-to-low range 5G and 4G phone APs and continued interest in new iPhone models. This scenario suggests a continued upward trend for the top ten global foundries in Q4, potentially exceeding the growth rate seen in Q3.

TrendForce reports a pivotal shift in the NAND Flash market for 3Q23, primarily driven by Samsung's strategic decision to reduce production. Initially, the market was clouded by uncertainty regarding end-user demand and fears of a subdued peak season, prompting buyers to adopt a conservative approach with low inventory and slow procurement. However, as market leaders like Samsung implemented substantial production cuts, buyers' attitudes shifted toward a more aggressive procurement strategy in anticipation of a market supply decrease. This led to a stabilization and even an uptick in NAND Flash contract prices by quarter-end, driving a 3% QoQ increase in bit shipments and culminating in a total revenue of US$9.229 billion, marking an approximate 2.9% increase.

The story unfolds with Kioxia and Micron—the only two to witness a dip in revenue rankings this quarter—while Samsung maintained its robust performance. Despite sluggish demand in the server sector, Samsung's fortunes rebounded thanks to a boost in consumer electronics, especially with high-capacity products in PCs and smartphones. Samsung emerged from a trough in Q3, with strategic inventory replenishments fueling further strategic stocking, and a shift in operational focus toward maximizing profit. This led to a minor 1-3% decrease in shipped bits, but a 1-3% increase in ASP, stabilizing Q3 NAND Flash revenue at US$2.9 billion.

NVIDIA's most recent FY3Q24 financial reports reveal record-high revenue coming from its data center segment, driven by escalating demand for AI servers from major North American CSPs. However, TrendForce points out that recent US government sanctions targeting China have impacted NVIDIA's business in the region. Despite strong shipments of NVIDIA's high-end GPUs—and the rapid introduction of compliant products such as the H20, L20, and L2—Chinese cloud operators are still in the testing phase, making substantial revenue contributions to NVIDIA unlikely in Q4. Gradual shipments increases are expected from the first quarter of 2024.

The US ban continues to influence China's foundry market as Chinese CSPs' high-end AI server shipments potentially drop below 4% next year
TrendForce reports that North American CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS will remain key drivers of high-end AI servers (including those with NVIDIA, AMD, or other high-end ASIC chips) from 2023 to 2024. Their estimated shipments are expected to be 24%, 18.6%, and 16.3%, respectively, for 2024. Chinese CSPs such as ByteDance, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent (BBAT) are projected to have a combined shipment share of approximately 6.3% in 2023. However, this could decrease to less than 4% in 2024, considering the current and potential future impacts of the ban.

TrendForce reports that consumer appetite for electronic products took a hit from high inflation, with global DRAM module sales in 2022 reaching US$17.3 billion—a 4.6% YoY decline. Revenue performance varied significantly among module makers due to the different domains they supply.

TrendForce's data indicated that the top five memory suppliers in 2022 accounted for 90% of total sales, with the top ten collectively capturing 96% of global market revenue. Kingston maintained its dominant market share of 78%. Even with a slight revenue dip, it held steadfast to its position as the global leader. Despite poor end-market demand, Kingston's robust brand scale, along with its comprehensive product supply chain, limited its revenue decline to a modest 5.3%, keeping it firmly at the top of market share rankings.

TrendForce reports that the second quarter revealed notebook inventory channels displaying healthy levels. Both North America and Asia-Pacific regions are demonstrating a healthy appetite for mid and low-tier consumer models. This isn't just a race to restock; it's a strategic move to gear up for the anticipated back-to-school wave in the third quarter. And here's the zinger—just as Google prepped to roll out its licensing fees, Chromebook shipments hit a peak. This surge propelled Q2 notebook shipments to 42.52 million units, marking a 21.6% quarterly leap. However, a look at the overall picture reveals a total of 77.5 million units shipped in the first half of the year—down 23.5% YoY.

TrendForce further points out that for 2H23, growth momentum is anchored in the purchasing power of end consumers. However, with the economic outlook of the two major notebook markets—the US and Europe—shrouded in uncertainty, the typical seasonal purchasing demand is muted. What's more, some of this demand was already met in Q2. As a result, Q3 notebook shipments are forecast to witness a moderate growth of 3.8%, tallying up to 44.13 million units. Annual notebook shipments are projected to hit 163 million units, marking a YoY decline of 12.2%.