Monday, December 9th 2024
Global Total Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast to Reach a Record of $139 Billion in 2026
Global sales of total semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are forecast to set a new industry record, reaching $113 billion in 2024, growing 6.5% year-on-year, SEMI announced today in its Year-End Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast - OEM Perspective at SEMICON Japan 2024. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment growth is expected to continue in the following years, reaching new records of $121 billion in 2025 and $139 billion in 2026, supported by both the front-end and back-end segments.
"Three consecutive years of projected growth in investments in semiconductor manufacturing reflect the vital role our industry plays in underpinning the global economy and advancing technology innovation," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. "Since our July 2024 forecast, the outlook for 2024 semiconductor equipment sales has brightened, especially with stronger-than-expected investments from China and in AI-related sectors. Together with our forecast extension through 2026, it highlights the robust growth drivers across segments, applications, and regions."
Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Segment
After registering a record $96 billion in sales last year, the wafer fab equipment (WFE) segment, which includes wafer processing, mask/reticle, and fab facilities equipment, is projected to grow 5.4% to $101 billion in 2024. This marks an increase from the previously forecast $98 billion in SEMI's 2024 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast. The upward revision mainly reflects the ongoing strong equipment investments in DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by artificial intelligence (AI) computing. Additionally, China's investments continue to play a significant role in the WFE market expansion. Looking ahead, WFE segment sales are projected to expand 6.8% in 2025 and 14% in 2026, reaching $123 billion due to increased demand for advanced logic and memory applications.
Following two years of contraction, the back-end equipment segment in 2024 saw a strong recovery in particular in the second half of the year. Sales of semiconductor test equipment are projected to rise 13.8% to $7.1 billion in 2024, while assembly and packaging (A&P) equipment sales are projected to increase 22.6% to $4.9 billion. Furthermore, the back-end segment growth is expected to accelerate, with test equipment sales surging 14.7% in 2025 and 18.6% in 2026, respectively, while A&P sales are forecast to grow 16% in 2025 followed by 23.5% expansion in 2026. The back-end segments' growth is supported by the increasing complexity of semiconductor devices for high-performance computing and the expected increase in demand in the mobile, automotive, and industrial end-markets.
Wafer Fab Equipment Sales by Application
The sales of WFE for foundry and logic applications are expected to remain flat year-on-year at $58.6 billion in 2024, supported by resilient spending in mature nodes. The segment is forecast to see 2.8% growth in 2025 and to increase 15% to $69.3 billion in 2026, driven by increasing demand for leading-edge technology, the introduction of new device architectures including the transition to gate-all-around (GAA), and increased capacity expansion purchases.
Memory-related capital expenditures are projected to see significant increases through 2026 supported by increasing demand for HBM for AI deployment and ongoing technology migration. NAND equipment sales are expected to remain relatively soft in 2024, growing 0.7% to $9.3 billion as supply and demand continues to normalize, setting the stage for a 47.8% expansion to $13.7 billion in 2025 and 9.7% growth to $15.1 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, DRAM equipment sales are projected to see robust growth of 35.3% to $18.8 billion in 2024, followed by 10.4% and 6.2% year-on-year growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Region
China, Taiwan and Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment spending through 2026. China is projected to maintain the top position over the forecast period as the region's equipment purchases continue to remain resilient despite the anticipated slowdown. Equipment shipments to China are projected to reach a record $49 billion in 2024, solidifying its lead over other regions. While equipment spending for most regions is expected to fall in 2024 before rebounding in 2025, China is expected to see a contraction in 2025 following significant investments over the past three years. All regions tracked are expected to see increases in 2026.
The SEMI forecast is based on collective input from top equipment suppliers, the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) data collection program and the industry-recognized SEMI World Fab Forecast database.
Source:
SEMI
"Three consecutive years of projected growth in investments in semiconductor manufacturing reflect the vital role our industry plays in underpinning the global economy and advancing technology innovation," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. "Since our July 2024 forecast, the outlook for 2024 semiconductor equipment sales has brightened, especially with stronger-than-expected investments from China and in AI-related sectors. Together with our forecast extension through 2026, it highlights the robust growth drivers across segments, applications, and regions."
After registering a record $96 billion in sales last year, the wafer fab equipment (WFE) segment, which includes wafer processing, mask/reticle, and fab facilities equipment, is projected to grow 5.4% to $101 billion in 2024. This marks an increase from the previously forecast $98 billion in SEMI's 2024 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast. The upward revision mainly reflects the ongoing strong equipment investments in DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by artificial intelligence (AI) computing. Additionally, China's investments continue to play a significant role in the WFE market expansion. Looking ahead, WFE segment sales are projected to expand 6.8% in 2025 and 14% in 2026, reaching $123 billion due to increased demand for advanced logic and memory applications.
Following two years of contraction, the back-end equipment segment in 2024 saw a strong recovery in particular in the second half of the year. Sales of semiconductor test equipment are projected to rise 13.8% to $7.1 billion in 2024, while assembly and packaging (A&P) equipment sales are projected to increase 22.6% to $4.9 billion. Furthermore, the back-end segment growth is expected to accelerate, with test equipment sales surging 14.7% in 2025 and 18.6% in 2026, respectively, while A&P sales are forecast to grow 16% in 2025 followed by 23.5% expansion in 2026. The back-end segments' growth is supported by the increasing complexity of semiconductor devices for high-performance computing and the expected increase in demand in the mobile, automotive, and industrial end-markets.
Wafer Fab Equipment Sales by Application
The sales of WFE for foundry and logic applications are expected to remain flat year-on-year at $58.6 billion in 2024, supported by resilient spending in mature nodes. The segment is forecast to see 2.8% growth in 2025 and to increase 15% to $69.3 billion in 2026, driven by increasing demand for leading-edge technology, the introduction of new device architectures including the transition to gate-all-around (GAA), and increased capacity expansion purchases.
Memory-related capital expenditures are projected to see significant increases through 2026 supported by increasing demand for HBM for AI deployment and ongoing technology migration. NAND equipment sales are expected to remain relatively soft in 2024, growing 0.7% to $9.3 billion as supply and demand continues to normalize, setting the stage for a 47.8% expansion to $13.7 billion in 2025 and 9.7% growth to $15.1 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, DRAM equipment sales are projected to see robust growth of 35.3% to $18.8 billion in 2024, followed by 10.4% and 6.2% year-on-year growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Region
China, Taiwan and Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment spending through 2026. China is projected to maintain the top position over the forecast period as the region's equipment purchases continue to remain resilient despite the anticipated slowdown. Equipment shipments to China are projected to reach a record $49 billion in 2024, solidifying its lead over other regions. While equipment spending for most regions is expected to fall in 2024 before rebounding in 2025, China is expected to see a contraction in 2025 following significant investments over the past three years. All regions tracked are expected to see increases in 2026.
The SEMI forecast is based on collective input from top equipment suppliers, the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) data collection program and the industry-recognized SEMI World Fab Forecast database.
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