Yet, the "investors" aren't happy, wtaf?!

This company will never REALLY grow. When it wins one market, it HAS to get totally destroyed in another.

TheLostSwedeYet, the "investors" aren't happy, wtaf?!

They keep hitting a ceiling, while Nvidia keeps growing.

TheLostSwedeYet, the "investors" aren't happy, wtaf?!

AMD's guidance for the current quarter is very light, a measly +22% YoY growth. And this is coming off of +18% YoY growth in the completed quarter.

In its most recent quarter (August), Nvidia posted 154% YoY growth (8.5x more growth than AMD). Nvidia will report their earnings in a month but it is likely that they will forecast more than 22% YoY growth for the next quarter.

In short, Nvidia's business is growing much faster than AMD's, particularly its non-gaming business units. The market expects AMD to make a little more money. They expect Nvidia to make a lot more money. I mean a LOT.

We can forget about including Intel in this comparison right now. Nvidia's market cap is something like 30x bigger than Intel's. That wasn't the case twenty years ago.

Basically AMD is holding onto the ledge with their fingernails, not trying to fall in the abyss that Intel is in.

Note that the market punishing a company for weak guidance is very common. They aren't just picking on AMD. Apple stopped giving their own guidance when the pandemic began but never resumed providing guidance.

Anyhow, don't read too deeply into after hours trading. But for sure, AMD will open down tomorrow morning.

Just wait till Intel's earnings in 2 days.

phanbueyJust wait till Intel's earnings in 2 days.

AMD is doing good in Intel's markets (server and retail) while it collapses in a market where Intel doesn't exist (gaming). Also Intel had gotten $0 from US for it's fabs. Not to mention probably extra costs for the 14th gen fiasco, it will be really bad. They can only save themselves the day they can announce a FULLY working 18A manufacturing node and if possible with a new big client for that node.

The data center revenue of $3.5B will exceed Intel’s when they report earnings. It’s amazing how far Intel has fallen and AMD has risen.

But the extreme rise of Nvidia dwarfs all players combined.

AMD needs to either combine Client and Gaming segments or get serious about GPUs for gaming.

TheLostSwedeYet, the "investors" aren't happy, wtaf?!

It’s time to ignore after hour results. None of the knee jerk reaction to earnings makes any sense.

cvaldesAMD's guidance for the current quarter is very light, a measly +22% YoY growth.

In its most recent quarter (August), Nvidia posted 154% YoY growth. Nvidia will report their earnings in a month but it is likely that they will forecast more than 22% YoY growth for the next quarter.

In short, Nvidia's business is growing much faster than AMD's. The market expects AMD to make a little more money. They expect Nvidia to make a lot more money. I mean a LOT.

We can forget about including Intel in this comparison right now. Nvidia's market cap is something like 30x bigger than Intel's. That wasn't the case twenty years ago.

Basically AMD is holding onto the ledge with their fingernails, not trying to fall in the abyss that Intel is in.

Note that the market punishing a company for weak guidance is very common. They aren't just picking on AMD. Apple stopped giving their own guidance when the pandemic began but never resumed providing guidance.

Not every company can be Nvidia... But apparently the so called investors don't get that.

TheLostSwedeNot every company can be Nvidia... But apparently the so called investors don't get that.

Actually they do. It's up to every investor to decide where to put their money. A big selloff means less shareholder equity in a company.

If I have $100 I don't have to stick all of it in one company. I could stick $50 in Company N, $25 in Company A, $15 in Company I, and hold $10 in cash. Company A says "this is how we see our next quarter." If I don't like Company A's prospects, I could reduce my $25 investment by $15 and stick that money somewhere else, maybe Company G. That's what some of these after hours traders are doing. And tomorrow morning, the broad market will do the same.

Most investors don't stick all of their assets in one investment. So even those who invest in NVDA should have holdings in other companies. Maybe AMAT. Maybe AVGO. Maybe TSM. Maybe NXPI.

Remember not to think of investors as your little Aunt Millie buying one or two shares of AMD, AAPL, or GOOG. Most of these big companies' shares are controlled by institutional investors: fund managers, retirement funds, pension plans, etc. If you look at AMD's profile, 72.64% of the float is held by institutions.

One cardinal rule of investing: if you think your money has a better chance of appreciating somewhere other than your current investments, consider making an adjustment. A lot of beginner investors get stuck in a mindset that they will wait until things get better. If they buy Stock A at $100 which drops to $80, they will hold out until Stock A returns to $100. A smarter investor will look around and if they think Stock B has a chance of going from $30 to $40 in that timeframe, they'll jump ship.

This is why AMD, closing around $166 is down 27% compared to its 52-week high. By contrast, Nvidia is trading just 4% below its 52-week high. Nvidia is making more money and the market recognizes that. Both companies are seeing growth but Nvidia's is much steeper. And not just this quarter. Nvidia has been killing it in Datacenter for a couple of years. Every 19" rack filled with Nvidia GPUs is a 19" rack that's not filled with AMD or Intel.

cvaldesOne cardinal rule of investing: if you think your money has a better chance of appreciating somewhere other than your current investments, consider making an adjustment. A lot of beginner investors get stuck in a mindset that they will wait until things get better. If they buy Stock A at $100 which drops to $80, they will hold out until Stock A returns to $100. A smarter investor will look around and if they think Stock B has a chance of going from $30 to $40 in that timeframe, they'll jump ship.

^ This. Always this. Easier said than done, but do it.

And after hours trading after earnings is silly though. Always a stupid illogical knee jerk reaction and unpredictable.

mkppo^ This. Always this. Easier said than done, but do it.

It is difficult. Human beings are emotional creatures. But you still need to recognize this unlike some people in this discussion thread.

I don't participate in after hours trading and try to avoid looking at it because often there is little correlation between after-hours prices and how the market will react on following day of regular trading. A slightly better clue is pre-market trading about 30 minutes before the opening bell. That's often a better gauge of what to expect but it's worth pointing out that the big boys (institutional investors) don't muck about with after hours.

After hours volumes are very small so there's a fair amount of pricing anomalies. After hours is mostly just juvenile drama like kids spazzing out about something trending on TikTok.

Right now, AMD is -8% after hours. Tomorrow if they are down a more modest -4%, that would still be a loss of $10.7 billion in market capitalization. What would a $10.7B loss in market cap be for NVDA? About -0.3%.

The primary responsibility for a publicly traded company is to increase shareholder value. AMD is doing that. The problem is that there are other companies who are offering greater increases in shareholder value. If I can still $100 in AMD and $100 in NVDIA. A year later, AMD is worth $119. Good. NVDA is worth $254. Better than good, great. And if both companies provide guidance that says things are going to be like this for a while, why wouldn't I pull out that $119 from AMD and stick it in NVDA? That's what some of these after hours investors are doing as we type this.

Remember, Nvidia has said that they've sold out of a year's worth of Blackwell GPUs. These are not customers who pick up a card at Best Buy and drive it home. These are billion dollar purchase orders.

At some point the AI craze and GPU market will cool off but the AI thing is still pretty early and everyone is trying to get a leg up on the competition. And there are plenty of people waiting for AI accelerator prices to come down. But it's not like Nvidia's phone at the orders desk is going to stop ringing tomorrow.

DavenThe data center revenue of $3.5B will exceed Intel’s when they report earnings. It’s amazing how far Intel has fallen and AMD has risen.

But the extreme rise of Nvidia dwarfs all players combined.

AMD needs to either combine Client and Gaming segments or get serious about GPUs for gaming.


It’s time to ignore after hour results. None of the knee jerk reaction to earnings makes any sense.

gaming revenue is really nothing in the grand scheme if you look at nvidia's revenue\profit.

Now that being said, that's not what brings big money so what should AMD do about graphics ?

Look at nvidia, and also their own past, while gaming isn't what brings in the cash in buckets it spreads risk.
Nvidia makes AD102, it's massive and when they were designing it I don't think anyone would bet the market for gamers for such a large chip was worth the risk so what have nvidia been pivoting to?
A gpu that works in the datacenter and does decently at gaming, now they have 3 markets for one chip and they can take the reduced risk and make it large.

Datacenter (Nvidia L40), Gaming (RTX4090) and Professional (RTX6000 ada, RTX 5000 ada etc)
the risk profile is rather low because if datacenter sells less than expected they still have 2 other markets.

Lets look at the 7900XTX and what the market is for it?
Gaming...

when is the last time you saw a radeon pro gpu in a workstation ? and the AI ventures with it is extremely limited at best with the quality of ROCM for consumer gpu's, and not to mention how bad they are as a package when 100$ more gets you same performance at amd's best with all the other possibilities with nvidia with RT (rendering) and Tensor for AI and other things.
MI 300 series is doing pretty good but it's datacenter only, and it's not doing as good as nvidia

TheLostSwedeNot every company can be Nvidia... But apparently the so called investors don't get that.

They need to go full bore into AI gpus, yet they are just kind of taking their time. The market won't be there forever. I think Jensen gets this. Su has done an insane job of turning AMD around but I think this is where the current wall for them is. The problem for them is that after vanquishing Intel, they'll now be compared to Nvidia which sucks for them.

Time to buy the dip!!!

TheLostSwedeYet, the "investors" aren't happy, wtaf?!

If only I had a few k$ to throw around when the stock was at $2

mechtechIf only I had a few k$ to throw around when the stock was at $2

The hard part then is you would have sold out at the first 1000% gain as most would have. I did actually buy in at $2 but like an idiot I sold out after 2000% gain, facepalm. Should have held that sucker longer.

Really loved my K6-2. Should have bought in back then....

thesmokingmanThe hard part then is you would have sold out at the first 1000% gain as most would have. I did actually buy in at $2 but like an idiot I sold out after 2000% gain, facepalm. Should have held that sucker longer.

Hind sight is 20-20. You made a profit and that is always good.

I don't think stock market is doing us tech users any favours.

It punishes companies that have steady growth, and awards sudden jumps in value. But it also punishes sudden drops of growth, so if they'll see a ceiling to Nvidia's stellar growth in AI, there will be a large market correction...

It is a lose - lose situation for users of all tech that isn't AI related, and AI - well, it's now forced to be tech stock market saviour, and it will be a self fulfilling prophecy - everyone and their grandmother will only cater to AI.

not riding the ai bubble, I hope for nvidia‘s sake they have been turning that insane market cap in to assets to live off of for a couple of years when it pops

phanbueyJust wait till Intel's earnings in 2 days.

ahh cmon, nobody is buying amd, intel will fare much, much better :toast:

ImsochoboDatacenter (Nvidia L40), Gaming (RTX4090) and Professional (RTX6000 ada, RTX 5000 ada etc)
the risk profile is rather low because if datacenter sells less than expected they still have 2 other markets.

Lets look at the 7900XTX and what the market is for it

What you are saying makes no sense, both AMD and Nvidia have different products for different markets. And professional segment is a very small niche for both of these companies dwarfed by both gaming and datacenter.

TheLostSwedeNot every company can be Nvidia... But apparently the so called investors don't get that.

Investors only care about the money. Everything else is secondary or straight up irrelevant. If they think they'll get more money out of investing their dollars in Nvidia than AMD, they'll go with Nvidia, end of story.

cvaldesBasically AMD is holding onto the ledge with their fingernails, not trying to fall in the abyss that Intel is in.

AMD is #1 in the Server CPU market, and #2 in the 'AI' market. I don't see them as 'holding onto a ledge with their fingernails', Nvidia is simply on another level right now. Practically no one's earnings or outlooks look good next to Nvidia's.

Icon CharlieHind sight is 20-20. You made a profit and that is always good.

Yea, that's the mantra... a trader holds onto. But still sometimes it stings thinking back, just the nature of the game.

TheLostSwedeYet, the "investors" aren't happy, wtaf?!

stock prices are meant to be a valuation of future earnings. so when you expect a higher future return but the company guides lower than expected, sometimes you just sell to move your money elsewhere.

retail investors look at the present share price. that is a mindset that took me years to change personally.

DavenIt’s time to ignore after hour results. None of the knee jerk reaction to earnings makes any sense.

makes perfect sense as it is small retail investors having an outsized effect on the price, but it also presents an opportunity if you want in on AMD or otherwise want to lower your cost basis.

cvaldesOne cardinal rule of investing: if you think your money has a better chance of appreciating somewhere other than your current investments, consider making an adjustment. A lot of beginner investors get stuck in a mindset that they will wait until things get better. If they buy Stock A at $100 which drops to $80, they will hold out until Stock A returns to $100. A smarter investor will look around and if they think Stock B has a chance of going from $30 to $40 in that timeframe, they'll jump ship.

yup - don't be afraid to take losses here to make money elsewhere.

knowing when to fold is as important as knowing when to bet. both gambling and day trading.

don't forget, large investment funds (or even those that have large enough holdings) also value future payout of dividends as much as increases in share price. those are things that plug bottom lines.