TSMC and Samsung are reportedly in talks with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to establish chip factories in the Gulf nation. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, this "desert dream" aligns with the UAE's ambitious plans to diversify its economy beyond oil and become a key player in the AI sector by building chips for AI domestically. The UAE and neighboring Saudi Arabia plan to leverage their oil wealth to invest in cutting-edge manufacturing, with AI emerging as a primary focus due to its high computational demands. Successful implementation of chip factories could significantly boost the region's AI capabilities and impact the global semiconductor supply chain. However, the project faces substantial challenges. Previous attempts to establish semiconductor manufacturing in the Gulf, such as the GlobalFoundries initiative over a decade ago, have yet to progress beyond initial planning.

The current proposal faces even greater obstacles, with estimated costs exceeding $100 billion for a state-of-the-art facility and necessary infrastructure. Geopolitical concerns add another layer of complexity. Recent US export restrictions of certain chips to the Gulf region may complicate the transfer of advanced manufacturing processes to the UAE. Despite these hurdles, the potential benefits are significant. For the UAE, success would represent a major step towards economic diversification and technological leadership. TSMC and Samsung could gain a strategic presence in a region eager for technological advancement. TSMC noted that the company focuses on current expansion projects in the US, Japan, and Germany, while Samsung declined to comment.

Various news outlets have been keeping tabs on OpenAI's CEO—Sam Altman—the AI technology evangelist was reported to be pursuing an ambitious proprietary AI chip project in early 2024. Inside sources pointed to late-January negotiations with important investment personnel in the Middle East—many believe that OpenAI leadership is exploring the idea of establishing its own network of semiconductor production plants. Late last week, The Wall Street Journal followed up on last month's AI industry rumors: "(Altman) has another great ambition: raising trillions of dollars to reshape the global semiconductor industry. The OpenAI chief executive officer is in talks with investors including the United Arab Emirates government to raise funds for a wildly ambitious tech initiative that would boost the world's chip-building capacity, expand its ability to power AI." One anonymous insider reckons that "the project could require raising as much as $5 trillion to $7 trillion."

TSMC is reportedly in the equation—Altman allegedly conducted talks with top brass last month—their expertise in cutting edge fabrication techniques would be of great value, although it is somewhat futile to reveal too many industry secrets given the sheer scale of OpenAI's (reported) aggressive expansion plans. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) suggests that the embryonic venture is far more "open" than previously reported—a collaborative venture could be established once funding is secured, although Altman & Co. face "significant obstacles" en route. WSJ proposes that the somewhat OpenAI-centric fabrication network is best founded by a joint partnership—involving multiple investors, contract chip manufacturers (perhaps TSMC), and energy/power providers. OpenAI appears to be the "primary buyer" of resultant fabricated AI chips, with manufacturing services also offered to other clients. The scale of such an endeavor is put into perspective by WSJ's analysis (via inside sources): "Such a sum of investment would dwarf the current size of the global semiconductor industry. Global sales of chips were $527 billion last year and are expected to rise to $1 trillion annually by 2030. Global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment—the costly machinery needed to run chip factories—last year were $100 billion, according to an estimate by the industry group SEMI."