TrendForce's latest analysis reveals that the downswing of DRAM contract prices, which had lasted for eight consecutive quarters since 4Q21, was finally reversed in 4Q23. Likewise, NAND Flash rebounded in 3Q23 after four quarters of decline. The persistence of this rally in memory prices during 2024 will largely hinge on suppliers' ongoing and effective control over their capacity utilization rates.

According to TrendForce Senior Research Vice President, Avril Wu, the first quarter of this year is already shaping up to be a season of growth, with TrendForce confirming its initial projections: a hike of around 13-18% QoQ for DRAM contract prices and a hike of 18-23% for NAND Flash contract prices. Despite a generally conservative outlook for overall market demand in 2Q24, suppliers in both DRAM and NAND Flash markets have begun raising their capacity utilization rates since the end of 4Q23. Furthermore, NAND Flash buyers are anticipated to complete their inventory restocking in advance in 1Q24. Due to the rise in capacity utilization rates and earlier restocking efforts, leading to a more moderated QoQ price increase of 3-8% for both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices for 2Q24.

TrendForce reports that the DRAM contract prices are estimated to increase by approximately 13-18% in 1Q24 with mobile DRAM leading the surge. It appears that due to the unclear demand outlook for the entire year of 2024, manufacturers believe that sustained production cuts are necessary to maintain the supply-demand balance in the memory industry.

PC DRAM: The market is buzzing with unfilled DDR5 orders, while savvy buyers brace for a continued surge in DDR4 prices, keeping procurement engines running. This trend, however, is shadowed by a gradual industry pivot toward DDR5, casting uncertainty over the expansion of DDR4 bit procurement volumes. Despite this, both DDR4 and DDR5 prices have yet to hit the target set by manufacturers, and buyers seem ready to ride the wave of price hikes into 1Q24. This sets the stage for an estimated 10-15% in PC DRAM contract prices, with DDR5 poised to take the lead over DDR4 in this pricing rally.

TrendForce investigations reveal a significant leap in the DRAM industry for 3Q23, with total revenues soaring to US$13.48 billion—marking 18% QoQ growth. This surge is attributed to a gradual resurgence in demand, prompting buyers to re-energize their procurement activities. Looking ahead to Q4, while suppliers are firmly set on price hikes, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by approximately 13-18%, demand recovery will not be as robust as in previous peak seasons. Overall, while there is demand for stockpiling, procurement for the server sector remains tentative due to high inventory levels, suggesting limited growth in DRAM industry shipments for Q4.

Three major manufacturers witnessed Q3 revenue growth. Samsung's revenue increased by about 15.9% to US$5.25 billion thanks to stable demand for high-capacity products fueled by AI advancements and the rollout of its 1alpha nm DDR5. SK hynix showcased the most notable growth among manufacturers with a 34.4% increase, reaching about US$4.626 billion and significantly narrowing its market share gap with Samsung to less than 5%. Micron's revenue rose by approximately 4.2% to US$3.075 billion—despite a slight drop in ASP—supported by an upswing in demand and shipment volumes.

Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AWS), an Amazon.com, Inc. company (NASDAQ: AMZN), and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) today announced an expansion of their strategic collaboration to deliver the most-advanced infrastructure, software and services to power customers' generative artificial intelligence (AI) innovations. The companies will bring together the best of NVIDIA and AWS technologies—from NVIDIA's newest multi-node systems featuring next-generation GPUs, CPUs and AI software, to AWS Nitro System advanced virtualization and security, Elastic Fabric Adapter (EFA) interconnect, and UltraCluster scalability—that are ideal for training foundation models and building generative AI applications.

The expanded collaboration builds on a longstanding relationship that has fueled the generative AI era by offering early machine learning (ML) pioneers the compute performance required to advance the state-of-the-art in these technologies.

TrendForce's latest research into the HBM market indicates that NVIDIA plans to diversify its HBM suppliers for more robust and efficient supply chain management. Samsung's HBM3 (24 GB) is anticipated to complete verification with NVIDIA by December this year. The progress of HBM3e, as outlined in the timeline below, shows that Micron provided its 8hi (24 GB) samples to NVIDIA by the end of July, SK hynix in mid-August, and Samsung in early October.

Given the intricacy of the HBM verification process—estimated to take two quarters—TrendForce expects that some manufacturers might learn preliminary HBM3e results by the end of 2023. However, it's generally anticipated that major manufacturers will have definite results by 1Q24. Notably, the outcomes will influence NVIDIA's procurement decisions for 2024, as final evaluations are still underway.

Supermicro, Inc., a Total IT Solution Provider for AI, Cloud, Storage, and 5G/Edge, is expanding its AI reach with the upcoming support for the new NVIDIA HGX H200 built with H200 Tensor Core GPUs. Supermicro's industry leading AI platforms, including 8U and 4U Universal GPU Systems, are drop-in ready for the HGX H200 8-GPU, 4-GPU, and with nearly 2x capacity and 1.4x higher bandwidth HBM3e memory compared to the NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPU. In addition, the broadest portfolio of Supermicro NVIDIA MGX systems supports the upcoming NVIDIA Grace Hopper Superchip with HBM3e memory. With unprecedented performance, scalability, and reliability, Supermicro's rack scale AI solutions accelerate the performance of computationally intensive generative AI, large language Model (LLM) training, and HPC applications while meeting the evolving demands of growing model sizes. Using the building block architecture, Supermicro can quickly bring new technology to market, enabling customers to become more productive sooner.

Supermicro is also introducing the industry's highest density server with NVIDIA HGX H100 8-GPUs systems in a liquid cooled 4U system, utilizing the latest Supermicro liquid cooling solution. The industry's most compact high performance GPU server enables data center operators to reduce footprints and energy costs while offering the highest performance AI training capacity available in a single rack. With the highest density GPU systems, organizations can reduce their TCO by leveraging cutting-edge liquid cooling solutions.

Rambus Inc., a premier chip and silicon IP provider making data faster and safer, today announced that the Rambus HBM3 Memory Controller IP now delivers up to 9.6 Gigabits per second (Gbps) performance supporting the continued evolution of the HBM3 standard. With a 50% increase over the HBM3 Gen 1 data rate of 6.4 Gbps, the Rambus HBM3 Memory Controller can enable a total memory throughput of over 1.2 Terabytes per second (TB/s) for training of recommender systems, generative AI and other demanding data center workloads.

"HBM3 is the memory of choice for AI/ML training, with large language models requiring the constant advancement of high-performance memory technologies," said Neeraj Paliwal, general manager of Silicon IP at Rambus. "Thanks to Rambus innovation and engineering excellence, we're delivering the industry's leading-edge performance of 9.6 Gbps in our HBM3 Memory Controller IP."

SK hynix Inc., today reported the financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023. The company recorded revenues of 9.066 trillion won, operating losses of 1.792 trillion won and net losses of 2.185 trillion won in the three-month period. The operating and net margins were a negative 20% and 24%, respectively. After bottoming out in the first quarter, the business has been on a steady recovery track, helped by growing demand for products such as high-performance memory chips, the company said.

"Revenues grew 24%, while operating losses narrowed 38%, compared with the previous quarter, thanks to strong demand for high-performance mobile flagship products and HBM3, a key product for AI applications, and high-capacity DDR5," the company said, adding that a turnaround of the DRAM business following two quarters of losses is particularly hopeful. SK hynix attributed the growth in sales to increased shipments of both DRAM and NAND and a rise in the average selling price.

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., a world leader in advanced memory technology, today held its annual Memory Tech Day, showcasing industry-first innovations and new memory products to accelerate technological advancements across future applications—including the cloud, edge devices and automotive vehicles.

Attended by about 600 customers, partners and industry experts, the event served as a platform for Samsung executives to expand on the company's vision for "Memory Reimagined," covering long-term plans to continue its memory technology leadership, outlook on market trends and sustainability goals. The company also presented new product innovations such as the HBM3E Shinebolt, LPDDR5X CAMM2 and Detachable AutoSSD.

SK hynix showcased its next-generation memory semiconductor technologies and solutions at the OCP Global Summit 2023 held in San Jose, California from October 17-19. The OCP Global Summit is an annual event hosted by the world's largest data center technology community, the Open Compute Project (OCP), where industry experts gather to share various technologies and visions. This year, SK hynix and its subsidiary Solidigm showcased advanced semiconductor memory products that will lead the AI era under the slogan "United Through Technology".

SK hynix presented a broad range of its solutions at the summit, including its leading HBM(HBM3/3E), CXL, and AiM products for generative AI. The company also unveiled some of the latest additions to its product portfolio including its DDR5 RDIMM, MCR DIMM, enterprise SSD (eSSD), and LPDDR CAMM devices. Visitors to the HBM exhibit could see HBM3, which is utilized in NVIDIA's H100, a high-performance GPU for AI, and also check out the next-generation HBM3E. Due to their low-power consumption and ultra-high-performance, these HBM solutions are more eco-friendly and are particularly suitable for power-hungry AI server systems.

According to the editorial blog post published on the Samsung blog by SangJoon Hwang, Executive Vice President and Head of the DRAM Product & Technology Team at Samsung Electronics, we have information that High-Bandwidth Memory 4 (HBM4) is coming in 2025. In the recent timeline of HBM development, we saw the first appearance of HBM memory in 2015 with the AMD Radeon R9 Fury X. The second-generation HBM2 appeared with NVIDIA Tesla P100 in 2016, and the third-generation HBM3 saw the light of the day with NVIDIA Hopper GH100 GPU in 2022. Currently, Samsung has developed 9.8 Gbps HBM3E memory, which will start sampling to customers soon.

However, Samsung is more ambitious with development timelines this time, and the company expects to announce HBM4 in 2025, possibly with commercial products in the same calendar year. Interestingly, the HBM4 memory will have some technology optimized for high thermal properties, such as non-conductive film (NCF) assembly and hybrid copper bonding (HCB). The NCF is a polymer layer that enhances the stability of micro bumps and TSVs in the chip, so memory solder bump dies are protected from shock. Hybrid copper bonding is an advanced semiconductor packaging method that creates direct copper-to-copper connections between semiconductor components, enabling high-density, 3D-like packaging. It offers high I/O density, enhanced bandwidth, and improved power efficiency. It uses a copper layer as a conductor and oxide insulator instead of regular micro bumps to increase the connection density needed for HBM-like structures.

Avicena, a privately held company headquartered in Sunnyvale, CA, is demonstrating its LightBundle multi-Tbps chip-to-chip interconnect technology at the European Conference for Optical Communications (ECOC) 2023 in Glasgow, Scotland (https://www.ecocexhibition.com/). Avicena's microLED-based LightBundle architecture breaks new ground by unlocking the performance of processors, memory and sensors, removing key bandwidth and proximity constraints while simultaneously offering class leading energy efficiency.

"As generative AI continues to evolve, the role of high bandwidth-density, low-power and low latency interconnects between xPUs and HBM modules cannot be overstated", says Chris Pfistner, VP Sales & Marketing of Avicena. "Avicena's innovative LightBundle interconnects have the potential to fundamentally change the way processors connect to each other and to memory because their inherent parallelism is well-matched to the internal wide and slow bus architecture within ICs. With a roadmap to multi-terabit per second capacity and sub-pJ/bit efficiency these interconnects are poised to enable the next era of AI innovation, paving the way for even more capable models and a wide range of AI applications that will shape the future."

TSMC today announced the new 3Dblox 2.0 open standard and major achievements of its Open Innovation Platform (OIP) 3DFabric Alliance at the TSMC 2023 OIP Ecosystem Forum. The 3Dblox 2.0 features early 3D IC design capability that aims to significantly boost design efficiency, while the 3DFabric Alliance continues to drive memory, substrate, testing, manufacturing, and packaging integration. TSMC continues to push the envelope of 3D IC innovation, making its comprehensive 3D silicon stacking and advanced packaging technologies more accessible to every customer.

"As the industry shifted toward embracing 3D IC and system-level innovation, the need for industry-wide collaboration has become even more essential than it was when we launched OIP 15 years ago," said Dr. L.C. Lu, TSMC fellow and vice president of Design and Technology Platform. "As our sustained collaboration with OIP ecosystem partners continues to flourish, we're enabling customers to harness TSMC's leading process and 3DFabric technologies to reach an entirely new level of performance and power efficiency for the next-generation artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance computing (HPC), and mobile applications."

Synopsys, Inc. today announced it is extending its collaboration with TSMC to advance multi-die system designs with a comprehensive solution supporting the latest 3Dblox 2.0 standard and TSMC's 3DFabric technologies. The Synopsys Multi-Die System solution includes 3DIC Compiler, a unified exploration-to-signoff platform that delivers the highest levels of design efficiency for capacity and performance. In addition, Synopsys has achieved first-pass silicon success of its Universal Chiplet Interconnect Express (UCIe) IP on TSMC's leading N3E process for seamless die-to-die connectivity.

"TSMC has been working closely with Synopsys to deliver differentiated solutions that address designers' most complex challenges from early architecture to manufacturing," said Dan Kochpatcharin, head of the Design Infrastructure Management Division at TSMC. "Our long history of collaboration with Synopsys benefits our mutual customers with optimized solutions for performance and power efficiency to help them address multi-die system design requirements for high-performance computing, data center, and automotive applications."

TrendForce reports that rising demand for AI servers has driven growth in HBM shipments. Combined with the wave of inventory buildup for DDR5 on the client side, the second quarter saw all three major DRAM suppliers experience shipment growth. Q2 revenue for the DRAM industry reached approximately US$11.43 billion, marking a 20.4% QoQ increase and halting a decline that persisted for three consecutive quarters. Among suppliers, SK hynix saw a significant quarterly growth of over 35% in shipments. The company's shipments of DDR5 and HBM, both of which have higher ASP, increased significantly. As a result, SK hynix's ASP grew counter-cyclically by 7-9%, driving its Q2 revenue to increase by nearly 50%. With revenue reaching US$3.44 billion, SK hynix claimed the second spot in the industry, leading growth in the sector.

Samsung, with its DDR5 process still at 1Ynm and limited shipments in the second quarter, experienced a drop in its ASP by around 7-9%. However, benefitting from inventory buildup by module houses and increased demand for AI server setups, Samsung saw a slight increase in shipments. This led to an 8.6% QoQ increase in Q2 revenue, reaching US$4.53 billion, securing them the top position. Micron, ranking third, was a bit late in HBM development. However, DDR5 shipments held a significant proportion, keeping their ASP relatively stable. Boosted by shipments, its revenue was around US$2.95 billion, a quarterly increase of 15.7%. Both companies saw a reduction in their market share.

NVIDIA's latest financial report for FY2Q24 reveals that its data center business reached US$10.32 billion—a QoQ growth of 141% and YoY increase of 171%. The company remains optimistic about its future growth. TrendForce believes that the primary driver behind NVIDIA's robust revenue growth stems from its data center's AI server-related solutions. Key products include AI-accelerated GPUs and AI server HGX reference architecture, which serve as the foundational AI infrastructure for large data centers.

TrendForce further anticipates that NVIDIA will integrate its software and hardware resources. Utilizing a refined approach, NVIDIA will align its high-end, mid-tier, and entry-level GPU AI accelerator chips with various ODMs and OEMs, establishing a collaborative system certification model. Beyond accelerating the deployment of CSP cloud AI server infrastructures, NVIDIA is also partnering with entities like VMware on solutions including the Private AI Foundation. This strategy extends NVIDIA's reach into the edge enterprise AI server market, underpinning steady growth in its data center business for the next two years.

TrendForce highlights in its latest report that memory suppliers are boosting their production capacity in response to escalating orders from NVIDIA and CSPs for their in-house designed chips. These efforts include the expansion of TSV production lines to increase HBM output. Forecasts based on current production plans from suppliers indicate a remarkable 105% annual increase in HBM bit supply by 2024. However, due to the time required for TSV expansion, which encompasses equipment delivery and testing (9 to 12 months), the majority of HBM capacity is expected to materialize by 2Q24.

TrendForce analysis indicates that 2023 to 2024 will be pivotal years for AI development, triggering substantial demand for AI Training chips and thereby boosting HBM utilization. However, as the focus pivots to Inference, the annual growth rate for AI Training chips and HBM is expected to taper off slightly. The imminent boom in HBM production has presented suppliers with a difficult situation: they will need to strike a balance between meeting customer demand to expand market share and avoiding a surplus due to overproduction. Another concern is the potential risk of overbooking, as buyers, anticipating an HBM shortage, might inflate their demand.

Introducing the Versal HBM Series VHK158 Evaluation Kit. This features the Versal HBM series VH1582 device, which integrates multi-Tbps High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), hardened connectivity IP, and adaptive compute in a single device, eliminating the bottlenecks between memory, I/O, and compute while delivering up to 6 times more memory bandwidth.

The VHK158 evaluation kit is an evaluation platform for the Versal HBM series VH1582 device designed to keep up with the higher memory needs of compute intensive, memory bound applications, providing adaptable acceleration for data center, wired networking, test & measurement, and aerospace & defense applications. The VHK158 board's primary focus is to enable demonstration and evaluation of the VH1582 silicon and support customer application development

Samsung Electronics today reported financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2023. The Company posted KRW 60.01 trillion in consolidated revenue, a 6% decline from the previous quarter, mainly due to a decline in smartphone shipments despite a slight recovery in revenue of the DS (Device Solutions) Division. Operating profit rose sequentially to KRW 0.67 trillion as the DS Division posted a narrower loss, while Samsung Display Corporation (SDC) and the Digital Appliances Business saw improved profitability.

The Memory Business saw results improve from the previous quarter as its focus on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DDR5 products in anticipation of robust demand for AI applications led to higher-than-guided DRAM shipments. System semiconductors posted a decline in profit due to lower utilization rates on weak demand from major applications.

Micron Technology, Inc. today announced it has begun sampling the industry's first 8-high 24 GB HBM3 Gen2 memory with bandwidth greater than 1.2 TB/s and pin speed over 9.2 Gb/s, which is up to a 50% improvement over currently shipping HBM3 solutions. With a 2.5 times performance per watt improvement over previous generations, Micron's HBM3 Gen2 offering sets new records for the critical artificial intelligence (AI) data center metrics of performance, capacity and power efficiency. These Micron improvements reduce training times of large language models like GPT-4 and beyond, deliver efficient infrastructure use for AI inference and provide superior total cost of ownership (TCO).

The foundation of Micron's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) solution is Micron's industry-leading 1β (1-beta) DRAM process node, which allows a 24Gb DRAM die to be assembled into an 8-high cube within an industry-standard package dimension. Moreover, Micron's 12-high stack with 36 GB capacity will begin sampling in the first quarter of calendar 2024. Micron provides 50% more capacity for a given stack height compared to existing competitive solutions. Micron's HBM3 Gen2 performance-to-power ratio and pin speed improvements are critical for managing the extreme power demands of today's AI data centers. The improved power efficiency is possible because of Micron advancements such as doubling of the through-silicon vias (TSVs) over competitive HBM3 offerings, thermal impedance reduction through a five-time increase in metal density, and an energy-efficient data path design.

Scientists at the Tokyo Institute of Technology have developed a new type of stacked or 3D DRAM that the researchers call Bumpless Build Cube 3D or BBCube 3D, which relies on Through Silicon Vias or TSVs to connect the DRAM dies. This is a different approach to HBM which relies on micro bumps to connect the layers together and the Japanese scientists are saying that their bumpless wafer-on-wafer solution should allow not only for an easier manufacturing process, but more importantly, improved cooling, as the TSVs can channel the heat from the DRAM dies down into whatever substrate the BBCube 3D stack is finally mounted onto.

If that wasn't enough, the researchers believe that BBCube 3D will be able to deliver higher speeds than HBM courtesy of a combination of the TSVs being relatively short and "high-density signal parallelism". BBCube 3D is expected to deliver up to a 32 fold increase in bandwidth compared to DDR5 memory and a four fold increase compared to HBM2E memory, while at the same time, drawing less power. The research paper goes into a lot more details for those interested at taking a closer look at this potentially revolutionary shift in DRAM assembly. However, the question that remains unanswered is if this will end up as a real world product some time in the near future, which is all based on how manufacturable BBCube 3D memory will be.

When Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) announced the creation of a two-ExaFLOP supercomputer named El Capitan, we heard that AMD would power it with its Instinct MI300 accelerator. Today, LNLL published a Tweet that states, "We've begun receiving & installing components for El Capitan, @NNSANews' first #exascale #supercomputer. While we're still a ways from deploying it for national security purposes in 2024, it's exciting to see years of work becoming reality." As published images show, HPE racks filled with AMD Instinct MI300 are showing up now at LNLL's facility, and the supercomputer is expected to go operational in 2024. This could mean that November 2023 TOP500 list update wouldn't feature El Capitan, as system enablement would be very hard to achieve in four months until then.

The El Capitan supercomputer is expected to run on AMD Instinct MI300A accelerator, which features 24 Zen4 cores, CDNA3 architecture, and 128 GB of HBM3 memory. All paired together in a four-accelerator configuration goes inside each node from HPE, also getting water cooling treatment. While we don't have many further details on the memory and storage of El Capitan, we know that the system will exceed two ExFLOPS at peak and will consume close to 40 MW of power.

TrendForce reports that continued production cuts by DRAM suppliers have led to a gradual quarterly decrease in overall DRAM supply. Seasonal demand, on the other hand, is helping to mitigate inventory pressure on suppliers. TrendForce projects that the third quarter will see the ASP for DRAM converging towards a 0~5% decline. Despite suppliers' concerted efforts, inventory levels persistently remain high, keeping prices low. While production cutbacks may help to curtail quarterly price declines, a tangible recovery in prices may not be seen until 2024.

PC DRAM: The benefits of consolidated production cuts on DDR4 by the top three suppliers are expected to become evident in the third quarter. Furthermore, inventory pressure on suppliers has been partially alleviated due to aggressive purchasing by several OEMs at low prices during 2Q23. Evaluating average price trends for PC DRAM products in 3Q23 reveals that DDR4 will continue to remain in a state of persistent oversupply, leading to an expected quarterly price drop of 3~8%. DDR5 prices—influenced by suppliers' efforts to maintain prices and unmet buyer demand—are projected to see a 0-5% quarterly decline. The overall ASP of PC DRAM is projected to experience a QoQ decline of 0~5% in the third quarter.

High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is emerging as the preferred solution for overcoming memory transfer speed restrictions due to the bandwidth limitations of DDR SDRAM in high-speed computation. HBM is recognized for its revolutionary transmission efficiency and plays a pivotal role in allowing core computational components to operate at their maximum capacity. Top-tier AI server GPUs have set a new industry standard by primarily using HBM. TrendForce forecasts that global demand for HBM will experience almost 60% growth annually in 2023, reaching 290 million GB, with a further 30% growth in 2024.

TrendForce's forecast for 2025, taking into account five large-scale AIGC products equivalent to ChatGPT, 25 mid-size AIGC products from Midjourney, and 80 small AIGC products, the minimum computing resources required globally could range from 145,600 to 233,700 Nvidia A100 GPUs. Emerging technologies such as supercomputers, 8K video streaming, and AR/VR, among others, are expected to simultaneously increase the workload on cloud computing systems due to escalating demands for high-speed computing.

Samsung Electronics, a world leader in advanced semiconductor technology, today announced its latest foundry technology innovations and business strategy at the 7th annual Samsung Foundry Forum (SFF) 2023. Under the theme "Innovation Beyond Boundaries," this year's forum delved into Samsung Foundry's mission to address customer needs in the artificial intelligence (AI) era through advanced semiconductor technology.

Over 700 guests, from customers and partners of Samsung Foundry, attended this year's event, of which 38 companies hosted their own booths to share the latest technology trends in the foundry industry.