Tuesday, October 31st 2017

AMD Stock Plunges Due to Forecast of Slowing Cryptocurrency, Console Markets

AMD's stock on Monday took a relatively steep dive in value, following a report by Morgan Stanley that pegs cryptocurrency-fueled graphics shipments to decline by 50% next year (a $250 million decline in revenue). "We believe that AMD's graphics surge has been caused by a sharp increase in sales of graphics chips to cryptocurrency miners. We expect this to meaningfully decelerate next year," Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore said. At the same time, the report expects video game console demand to decline by 5.5% in 2018, which led Moore towards lowering his price target for AMD shares to $8 from $11, a 32% decline from Friday's close.

As a consequence of the report, Morgan Stanley reduced its rating on AMD shares from equal-weight to underweight, which reduced confidence in the market, and triggered a sell-off - and following the mechanism of availability and demand, a descent in stock pricing was already painted on the wall. A 9% fall isn't something to scoff at - especially when the economics surrounding it are attributed to a single - as of yet - report. AMD stock fluctuations aren't new; the company's stock has been particularly volatile in recent times - especially when compared to its peers (and competitors) Intel and NVIDIA.
"We expect cryptocurrency to gradually fade from here, consoles to decline, and graphics to be flattish," Moore wrote. "To be clear, we admire what the company has accomplished on a fraction of its competitors' budgets in both microprocessors and graphics - our cautious view is based entirely on the current stock price, and the limited potential for upside in 2018 and beyond."

To put things in perspective, though, AMD's stock is up 64% in the past 12 months through last Friday, compared with S&P 500's 21% gain in the same time-frame. This new decline comes in the wake of AMD's last week stock plunge after the announcement of the latest Q3 results, proving that more than the fact that AMD returned to profitability after years in the red, expectation is the main driver of stock market pricing.
Sources: CNBC, via Ars Technica
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45 Comments on AMD Stock Plunges Due to Forecast of Slowing Cryptocurrency, Console Markets

#26
SARVAMANGALAM
it will be flood the cards in the market for sale. it's slowly starting. where I am a hundred cards for sale. but when comes time unprofitability on mining(like now is it just few buck per week ) . I'll be a few thousand graphic cards in every country. ... i think according wall street ass crack is near. i dont talk about BT.only graphic cards based cryptos :) . bt is other story but can take down all cryptos
so I think , wall street knows something about the bubble cryptovaluts will crack LOUD as hell. also saudi king say it will by big enron )) most investment to cryptos is from S.korea and japan., canada...countries without big gold reserve)) or false gold bars)))
it will crack -- becouse who will buy cassino chip for 6333usd and wait for 10K :laugh::laugh: most of people in west have no saved that much in bank .just debt debt
also second nature "thing" for keep cryptos alive is online world drugs markets. and that was punnished hard with life doom to :( silk road creator.
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#27
Prima.Vera
I pray (prey) that Ryzen 2 will be at least 50% faster than the first Ryzen, but this is just utopia.
But imagine for a sec that it would be.... Compared to that shitty 5-10% performance increase of Intel's. ;)
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#28
cdawall
where the hell are my stars
efikkanEveryone knows cryptomining eventually becomes unprofitable, as the difficulty rises and competition for mining increases, it just becomes a question of timing before the increase in value can't keep up. This is why we have seen many cryptomining bubbles in the past, and will continue to see more in the years to come. It's important to know that GPU sales related to chryptomining are still marginal.
So mine another coin. I also would say their sales are more than marginal.
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#29
RejZoR
StrayKATI'll believe the end of the console market when I actually see it. This thing has been said before, but it doesn't seem to die.

But we are definitely closer to PC/Console convergence than we ever were. So ultimately it's not gonna be bad for the GPU market. It just means PC gaming become king (yay!).. it's not like anyone will stop buying games in general.
They've been calling PC market dead. And yet it's here more alive than ever. Because they just calculate it from pre-built systems by large makers. What I think is that these days more and more people build the PC's themselves. Or by friends. I mean, other than laptops, I don't know anyone who would buy a pre-build system. They all build them themselves or by friends who know what to pick and how to build. And the number of such people is increasing.
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#30
StrayKAT
RejZoRThey've been calling PC market dead. And yet it's here more alive than ever. Because they just calculate it from pre-built systems by large makers. What I think is that these days more and more people build the PC's themselves. Or by friends. I mean, other than laptops, I don't know anyone who would buy a pre-build system. They all build them themselves or by friends who know what to pick and how to build. And the number of such people is increasing.
Maybe. I think newcomers to PCs.. especially gamers who are newcomers.. might go for the some of the gaming centric systems out there (Alienware.. and more customizable ones like Maingear). I really don't know though.

But yeah, if it was all that bad, all of these parts companies (Kingston, Corsair, etc) wouldn't be thriving.
Posted on Reply
#31
RejZoR
I mean, my first system 19 years ago was pre-built. After 3 years of owning it, I decided to buy a new one and build it myself. Have been doing so ever since. I've also assembled several systems for friends and family since then. And that was back in the day when internet was a luxury. Today you can get prices and instructions online anywhere. Not building it yourself just means you're either ignorant or loaded. I guess exception are desktops like AiO's and basic systems with integrated gfx meant for basic tasks. I don't think you can really go wrong with those. Then again, one could build a custom one for similar price with overclocking ability which would extend its life dramatically.
Posted on Reply
#32
StrayKAT
RejZoRI mean, my first system 19 years ago was pre-built. After 3 years of owning it, I decided to buy a new one and build it myself. Have been doing so ever since. I've also assembled several systems for friends and family since then. And that was back in the day when internet was a luxury. Today you can get prices and instructions online anywhere. Not building it yourself just means you're either ignorant or loaded. I guess exception are desktops like AiO's and basic systems with integrated gfx meant for basic tasks. I don't think you can really go wrong with those. Then again, one could build a custom one for similar price with overclocking ability which would extend its life dramatically.
I kind of left all of this around 2003 and went back to laptops for awhile (and consoles!). It is sort of daunting at first (I got back into PC gaming at the beginning of this year). I had a neighbor to refresh things. It's probably even more daunting for someone brand new. If they don't have a guiding hand, I doubt they're going to dive into it. Even though assembly is easier than it's ever been.
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#33
RejZoR
I realized not long ago I need to return to my budget roots of owning a cheap but powerful system. The kind where you invest minimal into it and then squeeze every drop of performance from it. Because right now, I just dump top money into it and be done with it basically. It's cool, but not as fun. I remember the day when I bought Core 2 Duo E5200 for like 75€ which was the bottom most CPU from this series back then. And overclocked it to 3.8 GHz. A dual core with such clock back then made it an incredibly strong performer all around. For almost nothing. I miss that even though it was fun pushing my current hexa core to what it is now. But it was still a 400€ CPU... It's just not the same thrill if I can to call it that way. Next build might go this way...
Posted on Reply
#34
StrayKAT
RejZoRI realized not long ago I need to return to my budget roots of owning a cheap but powerful system. The kind where you invest minimal into it and then squeeze every drop of performance from it. Because right now, I just dump top money into it and be done with it basically. It's cool, but not as fun. I remember the day when I bought Core 2 Duo E5200 for like 75€ which was the bottom most CPU from this series back then. And overclocked it to 3.8 GHz. A dual core with such clock back then made it an incredibly strong performer all around. For almost nothing. I miss that even though it was fun pushing my current hexa core to what it is now. But it was still a 400€ CPU... It's just not the same thrill if I can to call it that way. Next build might go this way...
I've kind of splurged for this new machine (not in all ways but some). I kind of regret it now. I'll shop smarter next time.
Posted on Reply
#35
Th3pwn3r
cdawallGamers buy one to two cards every 2+ years. Miners buy 1-2 thousand cards every what year? That's a huge difference. If anything this is great you are seeing faster and faster cards pumped out.

I think you are just mad at something you don't understand
Thing is, there are probably a lot more gamers than miners. I can't be sure though.
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#36
R0H1T
Th3pwn3rThing is, there are probably a lot more gamers than miners. I can't be sure though.
Yes but the problem is for every gamer there's a mining farm which can house anywhere between 10 to 10k cards, so it's not really 1:1 comparison.
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#37
EarthDog
RejZoRBecause gamers apparently don't exist anymore. Just because cryptocurrency is pissing away (thank god), that doesn't mean people will just stop buying graphic cards. Gamers were waiting for this to happen for ages.
Yes it does... actually. Its what the article is saying, no? If sales of gpus were going to be the same, this wouldnt exist. Then well have a surplus of jsed cards in the market slicing out sales of new..
StrayKATI'll believe the end of the console market when I actually see it. This thing has been said before, but it doesn't seem to die.

But we are definitely closer to PC/Console convergence than we ever were. So ultimately it's not gonna be bad for the GPU market. It just means PC gaming become king (yay!).. it's not like anyone will stop buying games in general.
Someone said this is the end of consoles??
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#38
Th3pwn3r
R0H1TYes but the problem is for every gamer there's a mining farm which can house anywhere between 10 to 10k cards, so it's not really 1:1 comparison.
I worded my post poorly. I should have said a lot more gamers than cards mining . I'm not arguing, I actually am curious how the numbers shake out .
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#39
Jism
Mining in the end will become more harder and harder, there is alot of genuine money now into the BC system. There will be a point that mining becomes actually obsolete. That is what the stock-trader advises / warns about. They are not talking of the actual worth of BC / Cryptomining in general.

But these companies have hardly any idea what their damage can be by sending out such a report and at what cost shares are being de-valued.
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#40
Prince Valiant
cdawallI would argue pascal was a pretty big thing. GP100 being a prime example didn't even make it to the consumer market.
Certainly. Until Volta rolls around we won't know if they'll have similar gains though.
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#41
cdawall
where the hell are my stars
Th3pwn3rI worded my post poorly. I should have said a lot more gamers than cards mining . I'm not arguing, I actually am curious how the numbers shake out .
Sales of add-in cards of AMD and Nvidia hardware were 520,000 units higher in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to JPR. Traditionally, we would expect the standard seasonal drop of 10,000-20,000 units. This indicates that upwards of 500,000 total units of high-end graphics were sold into the channel and, indeed, for mining-specific uses. About one in three graphics cards sold at retail, to OEMs or businesses was used for cryptocurrency mining.


Half a million extra cards sold would say that there is more people using cards for mining than gaming.

marketwatch
Prince ValiantCertainly. Until Volta rolls around we won't know if they'll have similar gains though.
High end Volta exists just not in a market we can buy.
Posted on Reply
#42
Th3pwn3r
cdawall

Half a million extra cards sold would say that there is more people using cards for mining than gaming.

marketwatch



High end Volta exists just not in a market we can buy.
You mean more cards mining than being used for gamers not more miners than gamers.

The exact number I'd like to know is how many cards are being used for gaming and how many for mining. I'm not sure if the number is out there. In your article it says a 3:1 ratio somewhere. I wasn't too focused while reading because I was on the phone/am on the phone.
Posted on Reply
#43
cdawall
where the hell are my stars
Th3pwn3rYou mean more cards mining than being used for gamers not more miners than gamers.

The exact number I'd like to know is how many cards are being used for gaming and how many for mining. I'm not sure if the number is out there. In your article it says a 3:1 ratio somewhere. I wasn't too focused while reading because I was on the phone/am on the phone.
520,000 cards sold in a single quarter didn't go to one user.
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#44
Th3pwn3r
I read that but that's not the whole picture, that's just a single quarter, the amount of cards mining may be insanely greater than the amount of cards gaming.
Posted on Reply
#45
cdawall
where the hell are my stars
Th3pwn3rI read that but that's not the whole picture, that's just a single quarter, the amount of cards mining may be insanely greater than the amount of cards gaming.
It is that isn't really a question.
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