Monday, November 14th 2022
Zen 4 X3D Limited to 8-Core and 6-Core, No Meteor Lake in 2023: Frosty Year Expected for CPU Market
A reliable source with CPU and platform leaks, ECSM_Official, made some new predictions about release timelines of upcoming desktop processors, and how 2023 could play out for Intel and AMD. 2022 is done, with no new desktop processor SKUs expected to launch from either brands. Intel is expected to flesh out its 13th Gen Core "Raptor Lake" desktop processor family in Q1 2023, with the addition of "locked" non-K SKUs spanning all four brand extensions (i3/i5/i7/i9). Besides these, Intel is expected to launch its new flagship, the Core i9-13900KS, with boost frequencies hitting the 6 GHz mark, in an attempt to ward off the threat from "Zen 4" with 3D Vertical Cache, a technology that springboarded "Zen 3" gaming performance to match that of "Alder Lake."
Both the i9-13900KS and AMD Ryzen 7000X3D processors are expected to launch toward the middle of H1-2023 (March-April). AMD is only expected to launch 6-core/12-thread and 8-core/16-thread SKUs with the 3DV cache technology. These would be single-CCD packages. There's no word on dual-CCD ones with 12-core or 16-core counts, so a Ryzen 9 7950X3D is not on the horizon. AMD is expected to debut its entry-level A620 motherboard chipset in Q2-2023. This chipset reportedly lacks CPU overclocking capability, is expected to lack PCIe Gen 5, and caps memory speed to DDR5-4800.Intel is expected to refresh its 13th Gen Core processor lineup with new SKUs in Q3-2023. For now, all that's known about these "Raptor Lake Refresh" processors is that they come with 100-200 MHz speed bumps over existing 13th Gen Core SKUs of the time. This would also mean that the LGA1700 platform and "Raptor Lake" will be Intel's mainstay throughout 2023, and the 14th Gen "Meteor Lake" isn't launching until 2024.
While "Meteor Lake" will dominate Intel's mobile processor lineup, it will have a limited presence on the desktop side, due to its core-count of 6P+16E, despite IPC uplifts on both the P-cores and E-cores. These processors will, however, debut the next-generation Socket LGA1851 platform. 2024 will see Intel launch both the "Meteor Lake" and 15th Gen "Arrow Lake" processors. The "Arrow Lake" SoC will restore core-counts to the familiar 8P+16E, with IPC uplifts for at least the P-cores, over those on "Meteor Lake." In summary, 2023 will be a lukewarm year for new processor/platform launches, mainly due to the downturn in the PC industry. Intel and AMD will want to make less-risky bets.
Sources:
ECSM_Official (bilibili), ECSM_Official (bilibili), VideoCardz
Both the i9-13900KS and AMD Ryzen 7000X3D processors are expected to launch toward the middle of H1-2023 (March-April). AMD is only expected to launch 6-core/12-thread and 8-core/16-thread SKUs with the 3DV cache technology. These would be single-CCD packages. There's no word on dual-CCD ones with 12-core or 16-core counts, so a Ryzen 9 7950X3D is not on the horizon. AMD is expected to debut its entry-level A620 motherboard chipset in Q2-2023. This chipset reportedly lacks CPU overclocking capability, is expected to lack PCIe Gen 5, and caps memory speed to DDR5-4800.Intel is expected to refresh its 13th Gen Core processor lineup with new SKUs in Q3-2023. For now, all that's known about these "Raptor Lake Refresh" processors is that they come with 100-200 MHz speed bumps over existing 13th Gen Core SKUs of the time. This would also mean that the LGA1700 platform and "Raptor Lake" will be Intel's mainstay throughout 2023, and the 14th Gen "Meteor Lake" isn't launching until 2024.
While "Meteor Lake" will dominate Intel's mobile processor lineup, it will have a limited presence on the desktop side, due to its core-count of 6P+16E, despite IPC uplifts on both the P-cores and E-cores. These processors will, however, debut the next-generation Socket LGA1851 platform. 2024 will see Intel launch both the "Meteor Lake" and 15th Gen "Arrow Lake" processors. The "Arrow Lake" SoC will restore core-counts to the familiar 8P+16E, with IPC uplifts for at least the P-cores, over those on "Meteor Lake." In summary, 2023 will be a lukewarm year for new processor/platform launches, mainly due to the downturn in the PC industry. Intel and AMD will want to make less-risky bets.
70 Comments on Zen 4 X3D Limited to 8-Core and 6-Core, No Meteor Lake in 2023: Frosty Year Expected for CPU Market
New arch is a 5 years endeavor, you dont wait to lunch and the start to figure out new arch And yet, those refresher pretty much dominant now in many cases.
Say a lot on the second player...
Preformance? Cost?
Dont forget that intel make their own cpu.
AMD outsource them so the complement on smaller node goes to tsmc, not AMD.
AMD make enormous change and uplifted its business tramendusly plus change the face of the market from the horrible bulldozer era.
Intel stagnated at that time but never was clear cut behind AMD.
Sounds you are cheering AMD while opposing Intel yet they are both the same giant tech companies that will do whatever thay need to make profit.
And the 3D counterparts will again have lower clocks and lower productivity, and only gain in very specific tasks,
- gaming fortunately being one of them.
But modern CPUs are very rarely bottlenecks, unless you specifically search for such situations - low resolution high FPS gaming with top end graphics cards. Once you introduce v-sync or other frame limiting tech, or use higher resolution or ray-tracing, effect of CPU speed largely dissapears.
What they can do is to choose not to OK the hell out of the CPU out of the box and leave it to the user.
News flash, it will not happen in the face of fierce compatition.
Now socket AM5 has a 230W limit. The 7600X and 7700X are lower wattage chips using only 105/180W versus the 170/230W of the 12/16 core parts. There is power headroom for cache to be added to the 6 and 8 core versions AND increase the clocks.
It was not some sort of physics that forced AMD to lower clocks after adding cache on the 5800X3D but the power limitations on the old socket AM4. AMD does not have that problem on AM5 unless they were adding cache to the higher power 12 and 16 core parts which go up to 230W. The leak says they are not adding cache to these parts.
I estimate higher clocks AND 3D cache on the 7600X3D and 7800X3D.
It does not matter how it will happen. What matters is, and i cheer for that, both companies draw conclusions about the power consumption and heat and will try to fix those things instead serving all of us power hungryfurnaces.
5800X3D still has lower power draw than 5900X and 5950X, even in most brutal tests. And those two don't even have any limitation on overclocking - so socket power delivery limitation surely can't be the only reason 5800X3D had a reduced boost frequencies and locked overclocking?
I'm more "worried" (not that current CPUs aren't stupidly fast already, so no real worries, but still...) that Meteor Lake is seeing yet another delay. I wonder what the catch is. Low fab yields? Low packaging yields? Something else? The 5800X3D had reduced clocks partially for thermal protection due to the extra insulating layer of (blank) silicon on top of the CPU cores, and partially because the cache die couldn't tolerate voltages above 1.35V at all. This is also the reason for it being locked for OCing, as OCing necessitates voltage control, and higher clocked Ryzens often boost above 1.45V, even if it's for short periods of time.
The question is whether the cache die for Ryzen 7000X3D will have its own voltage plane, decoupled from core/on-die cache voltages, which would be a possible way around this - if such a separation is possible.
and indeed... we're practically still exploring 10~7nm revisions, despite what the marketing dictates. Except now with EUV, which allows them to really execute on the number... too bad marketing is a few steps ahead of reality still.
Either way, the AM5 six and eight core parts are the ‘lower’ power parts on the platform and have more headroom. The 5800X was already at the ‘higher’ power level for AM4 before adding cache. These are the levels and limits as defined by AMD and not third parties.
But the node will stay the same as originally pland, the new arc benefit will not change so IPC will not change, core number also will stay the same as pland. Those are the thing, imo, that you need to change in order to get "serious gains"
And again, the AM5 has more power headroom and therefore the 3d cache parts could be clocked higher than the non 3d cache parts. I’m conjecturing based on available information as I am not an AMD employee.
That is not the design of the arch of a chip but node it is being manufactured at like TSMC5nm node. So the node does not stay the same necessarily it can change if the design can be ported to a more advanced node. The architecture or the design of the chip stays the same if there is no improvements necessary but the node the chip can be manufactured at can change. Variety of things can be done to the chip after the architecture design is ready. Not major but these can change noticeable the outcome of a chip.