Friday, November 22nd 2024
NVIDIA Warns: GeForce RTX 40-Series GPUs Could be in Shortage in Q4
During NVIDIA's recent Q3 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress cautioned about potential GPU supply constraints in the fourth quarter despite strong gaming sector performance. The gaming division posted impressive results, with $3.2 billion in revenue, representing a 15% increase from the previous year. However, Kress indicated that fourth-quarter gaming revenue might see a decline due to supply limitations, though she reassured that supply should stabilize in early 2025. The company is scaling back RTX 40-series production as it prepares for the anticipated launch of its next-generation Blackwell architecture, which is expected to debut at CES 2025. The RTX 50-series GPU lineup, particularly the flagship RTX 5090 and RTX 5080 models, is rumored to be unveiled during the January event.
"Gaming, although sell-through was strong in Q3, we expect fourth-quarter revenue to decline sequentially due to supply constraints." For consumers, this could mean limited availability and higher prices for gaming GPUs during the holiday shopping season. The shortage is expected to primarily affect RTX 40-series cards, with a particular impact on laptop GPU availability. However, NVIDIA plans to continue producing select RTX 40 mobile chips alongside the upcoming RTX 50 series, suggesting a slow transition between generations. The holiday season is upon us, so this shortage of current-gen models could cost the company some additional customers, as the customer spending usually holds until holidays and holiday discounts.
Source:
Tom's Hardware
"Gaming, although sell-through was strong in Q3, we expect fourth-quarter revenue to decline sequentially due to supply constraints." For consumers, this could mean limited availability and higher prices for gaming GPUs during the holiday shopping season. The shortage is expected to primarily affect RTX 40-series cards, with a particular impact on laptop GPU availability. However, NVIDIA plans to continue producing select RTX 40 mobile chips alongside the upcoming RTX 50 series, suggesting a slow transition between generations. The holiday season is upon us, so this shortage of current-gen models could cost the company some additional customers, as the customer spending usually holds until holidays and holiday discounts.
79 Comments on NVIDIA Warns: GeForce RTX 40-Series GPUs Could be in Shortage in Q4
the more he tries the more I cringe
As someone said, vote with your wallet
Don't normalize super high prices
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but gamers don't have an ounce of bargaining power here. They are no longer a significant market revenue stream.
Why would they leave the gaming market when they can satisfy their pockets from both?
Yes compute is more profitable. Does supply really matter when the only demand is for your own product and not the competitors? You can take both markets even with tsm at max capacity if all everyone wants is green. Compute will always get satisfied first.
It's too easy for them to translate the compute side to hold the vast majority of the consumer side. With AMD backing out of the high end consumer GPU, the profitable end, it's probably going to be easier than ever for nvidia to maintain that higher profit margin end of the consumer market.
While NVIDIA’s greed is undeniable, don’t blame them only—put some blame on the average consumers who first enabled Nvidia's price hiking by buying GPUs at the inflated prices during the pandemic and tolerated the 4000s price hikes.
not saying you do, but it sound more like you are trying to defend your purchase.
about 1.5 B gamers on this planet, iirc about 500 M for pc, so no, we are not a small number, just those spending +1K $ on it, and definitely more than
those that run dgpus for non-gaming.
just because a new game has "new" requirements (RT), does not force me to buy a new card, to play the game.
a game with higher requirements doesnt require a new gpu, no one is forced to play 4K@120hz with HDR, i can do so at 1K/2k@60Hz just fine.
just because a new game has higher requirements, doesnt magically fill my wallet with money, so i can spend 4 digits on a gpu
and anyone spending more on a single part, than what it costs to feed a family of four for 2 month, might see it as a hobby, i dont.
virtually nothing on this planet sells for more than what ppl are willing to pay, and the past 2 series showed Nv they can charge more.
i saw the price crap coming when it increased with the 3 series and continued with 4, and anyone with a 3070/4070 or higher chip,
is part of the (higher cost) problem, and that doesn't make me mad at "you", but for me personally they have no business complaining about it.
Mid 2004 I was finishing up school and a new Pentium 4 build and it needed a GPU but I couldn't get information on any of them anywhere. Office supply shops mark up everything so I went the Walmart route, which was probably the first mistake but whatever. The Radeon 9200 was the fair option, extremely overpriced and the other options were between a pair of FX Ultras that I couldn't get. To rush my Pentium 4 build, I went Radeon. It mostly worked but not like every other card in the 9000 series that actually had DX9 feature level. It took 5 years of working with that to finally replace it with a low profile DX10 card. By then it was already EOL and time to build a new system. It was far more trouble than it was worth and things could have been much better if I had just waited for cheaper choices to appear. Going into the next build I chose an AM3 board with far worse in the form of an unstable IGP. Picking up another mainboard and HD6570 card was just another expensive bandaid but it seemed fine until years later when Unity started to grow immensely popular in the 2D desktop and 3D VR spaces.
This was peak Ethereum era and I was having trouble picking up a RX 580 because they were constantly sold out as quickly as they restocked. It was frustrating and insane and double MSRP by the time I got one. It did the job and even made some people around me question their choices up and down the board (GTX 1050Ti, RX480, RX570, GTX970, GTX1060, etc) as I was one of few people in VR spaces that was NOT struggling with frames or stutters.
Now I'm looking to replace that just to have stable frames for recording and streaming and that's been a struggle. I'm looking at cards that are 300-500% current performance but they're not $400-500 anymore. They're $600 for anything with decent raster and encode, upwards of $1200 for anything with a decent balance of features and vram. Let me make this clear, nobody gives a shit about GPUs. I'm paying way more for this bullshit with my attention than anything else, noticing how this market was co-opted and manipulated by a bunch of buttcoin nerds, Gamestop traders and all the other grifter noise that has LITERALLY NOTHING to do with PC gaming or any of these PC related hobbies.
People don't give a shit about GPUs and they're expensive. Outrageously expensive. A single PC component should not be somewhere between a month's rent and a car payment. This issue is permanently auto-pricing gamers out of the PC gaming hobby, while editors can't get a modern card that works. Render jobs are stuck in limbo because nobody can figure out lightmaps at a good memory budget and new streamers are MIA because of insufferable catch-22 bullshit going on between the bare minimum site settings with cards that juggle upscaling features against vram but the encoder can't cut it so the whole computer just explodes. Just ordinary people with regular hobbies.
Normies don't give a damn about buying GPUs but suddenly they do and it turns out these things are entirely necessary to make anything work. Then the moment everything is quiet, when things start to look like it's all going to be okay (that's suspicious...), more buttcoin weirdos swoop in from the dead of night and wreck the market faster than a ninja sex party. NOBODY can get these cards. ALL the stock goes missing (or into the hands of miners) while I start to hear the murmur of normies, sneakerheads and other tourists that don't belong in these spaces talking about the latest flagship card. We need to start gatekeeping our hobbies or we're not going to have anything left. I literally haven't gotten any work done since July and most of that has been a troubleshooting fiasco from January. I want to game just so I can forget about this colossal waste of time. JFC.
my prob is with folks that have a 4070 or better and talk about high prices on the 5 series.
those that actually bought it as "investment" for longer term use, wouldnt have to, as they would not be looking at getting a new card.
and those that think they need to swap their stuff every gen, well, deal with it.
having lots of friends (and fof) that game as well, and i now know more ppl with a big gpu (xx80/90), compared to say 10 or 20y ago, and its def not because gpus gotten cheaper.
and from some exceptions, Nv has a pretty good idea of what their gpus are doing (e.g. who is gaming), unless your off the grid and their telemetry isnt broadcasting,
so they know who is willing to shell out +1K on a dgpu outside of mining.
i always had a console, starting with atari, and all PS except the 5, as i decided its getting too expensive, even that you get more (in return) compared to spending same amount on a part (or 2) for the pc.
if a hobby (or anything else for that matter) gets too expensive (for whatever reason), you stop spending money on it, but only on things like pc/gaming ppl think, it needs to go on forever.
i mean i get what you are saying, but everything is about having the extra money or not, and thus making a decision either way, no matter what is the cause for high pricing,
like we do with even more important things like living quarters/food/car etc, where no one argues the same way (like some do) about the higher price for the next tier up/better one.
End result is basically the same lol. My 7950 XTX is the end of an era for AMD I fear.
They won't leave gaming as long as they can hold majority so easily, it just isn't priority.
If your brand is the only one in demand then supply isn't near as important. The same amount of money is made whether the customer waits or not, because they aren't buying the competition.
Just saying they won't just leave a market they can easily dominate because they can't get chips to it until a few months later than compute. The demand is still there, I don't think you would see giant shift front green to red because nvidia is a few months late on supply for gaming.
But I mean what is happening right now? Is there not total dominance in both markets by nvidia? TSM at full capacity doesn't matter clearly, the gaming market just has to wait for their supply.
You make it seem like they have competition to be worried about to satisfy the demand. Sadly they don't have any right now.
The next Nvidia GPU is the size of two Monolithic GPU's from either brand. The 5090 or Titan will be a real rendering powerhouse matched with a 5950X3D. :toast: Yep I loved my AMD 9800pro back in the day, before RT cores when rendering shadows didnt require ray tracing rendering was everything and I remember ATI leading then Nvidia and it was back and forth. AMD said they would keep the ATI team on and that there would be no change but we have been let down repeatedly. I love AMD I use there CPU's and GPU's but lately Ive been buying the best NVIDIA cards so that I can game and stream at the highest possible fidelity. imo. Its worth mentioning that the non RT shadows which are added artistically by the developers can sometimes be better. Equaling Rt shadows if not enabling the developer more control over the atmosphere of a given scene. In games where the devs are lazy RT shadows does look a hell of a lot better. Hence my choice to go with Nvidia. We live in hope that AMD will pull something out of the bag when we least expect it and destroy the market. :toast:
- vote with your wallet
- no one is forcing people to buy these cards
Creators and editors are the meat of it. There are people still relying on consumer hardware like the 1660 Super and RX5700 for work.
The ones with those parts are a tiny minority but I find some of them and they are perfectly positioned for the jump to RTX5000 series.
They can gamble with used market, struggle with duds like I did and risk the bottom falling out OR pay a low premium on fresh high $$$ hardware.
When it looks like that, it's a pretty easy choice because you are effectively investing in delivering a better experience to yourself and your audience.
In this case taking the risk can be much worse, causing really stupid problems where the company has your money but you're still out a card.
That happened to me earlier this year and I'm just now getting around to fixing it. I'm just a VR enthusiast that likes making videos.
Imagine what these problems do to people that depend on compute for a living. Where their only income depends on RTX. It's insane but real. The only argument I have with this is there is no "extra" money. There is a benchmark for value and some narrow scope for targeting higher value.
Any other choice derived from speculation is what dumps everyone into a race to the bottom. I've been through it enough times and want out. For ordinary gamers, yeah. It's not an arms race. For the creators, it's an all out nightmare running unoptimized apps and assets that compete for FPS.
The markets that make up game studios, online entertainment and PC gaming ALL contribute to this push. The brakes at the moment are pure speculation.
The vibe can shift real quick when something isn't right and it's incredibly frustrating just getting everything to agree for one job.
I really hope I never have to choose like that from either side juggling features I don't want with the parts that I do at $$$$.
Maybe someday I can pick up an old card that's ripe for memory mod but I don't have that much confidence in my own skill.
sorry, meant the "extra money" as in money i dont need for anything else, and can spend it (on a hobby).