The Taiwanese Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) managed to herd government representatives and leading Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry figures together for an important meeting, according to DigiTimes Asia. The report suggests that the main topic of discussion focused on an anticipated growth of Taiwan's ICT industry—current market trends were analyzed, revealing that the nation absolutely dominates in the AI server segment. The MOEA has (allegedly) determined that Taiwan has shipped 90% of global AI server equipment—DigiTimes claims (based on insider info) that: "American brand vendors are expected to source their AI servers from Taiwanese partners." North American customers could be (presently) 100% reliant on supplies of Taiwanese-produced equipment—a scenario that potentially complicates ongoing international tensions.

The report posits that involved parties have formed plans to seize opportunities within an evergrowing global demand for AI hardware—a 90% market dominance is clearly not enough for some very ambitious industry bosses—although manufacturers will need to jump over several (rising) cost hurdles. Key components for AI servers are reported to be much higher than vanilla server parts—DigiTimes believes that AI processor/accelerator chips are priced close to ten times higher than general purpose server CPUs. Similar price hikes have reportedly affected AI adjacent component supply chains—notably cooling, power supplies and passive parts. Taiwanese manufacturers have spread operations around the world, but industry watchdogs (largely) believe that the best stuff gets produced on home ground—global expansions are underway, perhaps inching closer to better balanced supply conditions.

TSMC is experiencing unprecedented demand from AI chip customers—unnamed parties have (fancifully) requested the construction of entirely new fabrication facilities. Taiwan's leading semiconductor contract manufacturer seems to concentrating on "sensible" expansions, mainly in the area of CoWoS packaging output—according to an Economic Daily report, company leadership and local government were negotiating over the construction of four new advanced packaging plants. Insiders propose that plans have been revised—an investment in excess of 500 billion yuan ($16 billion) will enable the founding of six new CoWoS-focused facilities. TSMC is expected to make an official announcement next month—industry moles reckon that construction work will start in April. Two (of the six total) advanced packaging plants could become fully operational before the conclusion of 2024.

Lately, TSMC has initiated an ambitious recruitment drive—targeting around 6000 new workers. A touring entity is tasked with the attraction of "talents with high enthusiasm for semiconductors." The majority of new recruits are likely heading to new or expanded Taiwan-based facilities. The Economic Daily report proposes that Chiayi City's technological hub will play host to TSMC's new CoWoS packaging plants. A DigiTimes Asia news piece (from January) posited that TSMC leadership anticipates CoWoS output reaching 44,000 units by the end of 2024. This predicted tally could grow, thanks to the (rumored) activation of additional factories. CoWoS packaging is considered to be a vital aspect of AI accelerators—insiders believe that TSMC's latest investment will boost production of NVIDIA H100 GPUs. The combined output of six new CoWoS plants will assist greatly in the creation of next-gen B100 chips.

DigiTimes Asia has reached out to insiders at fabrication toolmakers in an effort to delve deeper into claims made by industry analysts at the start of 2024—both SemiAnalysis and China Renaissance have proposed that TSMC is unlikely to adopt High-NA EUV production techniques within a five year period. The latest news article explores a non-upgrade approach for the next couple of years: "TSMC has not placed orders for high-numerical aperture (High-NA) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools and is unlikely to use the technology in 2 nm and 1.4 nm (A14) process manufacturing." Intel Foundry Services (IFS) will be one of the first semiconductor manufacturers to go online with ASML's latest and greatest machinery, although no firm timeframes have been confirmed. Team Blue's Taiwanese rival (and occasional business partner) is seemingly happy with its existing infrastructure, but industry watchdogs propose that cost considerations are key factors behind TSMC's cautious planning for the next decade.

The DigiTimes insider sources believe that TSMC will not budge until at least 2029, possibly coinciding with a 1 nm production node—analysts at China Renaissance reckon that High-NA EUV machines could be delivered in the future when facilities are readied for an "A10" codenamed process. TSMC published a very ambitious "transistor count" product timeline in early January (see below)—the first "1 nm" products are supposedly targeted for a 2030 rollout, but this schedule could change due to unforeseen circumstances. Intel is expected to "phase in" its fanciest ASML gear collection once the 18A process becomes old hat—Tom's Hardware thinks that 2026 - 2027 is a feasible timeframe.

The NAND memory industry is not in great shape at the moment, with the big three (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) having reported significant financial losses in this area recently. If you include Kioxia and Western Digital as part of this collective picture, a grand total of over $10 billion has been lost in the flash memory segment. According to DigiTimes Asia this week, Pua Khein-Seng - the chief executive officer of Phison Electronics Corporation - has warned that parts of the industry could collapse due to potential company bankruptcies.

Khein-Seng informed attendees at a press conference that forced NAND price cuts are not feasible in the current market environment, and that supply chains could be affected if related companies start to shutdown - due to operational losses. He expects 3D NAND manufacturers to cutback on output in order to soften the market, and unit price increases are also a possibility. Phison has experienced a drop in revenues for the first quarter of 2023, but the CEO insists that his company is not willing to cutback on research and development costs - 80% of its annual expense budget will be invested in future projects. Khein-Seng states that rival companies have reduced spending on R&D by 20%, yet Phison remains committed to its clients by providing cutting edge technology (for example the E26 SSD memory controller).

China's upcoming 14th five-year plan (2021-2025) will continue to highlight technology and capacity upgrades as the core of its semiconductor self-sufficiency strategy, with foundry capacity projected to expand 40% from the preceding plan and fabrication process expected to advance to 7 nm, according to Digitimes Research.

Bolstered by national policies in the 13th five-year plan, China's IC manufacturing industry is expected to see combined revenues double to CNY240 billion (US$34.28 million) in 2020 from 2016, and may also move 12 nm to production by the end of the year after having volume produced 14 nm process.

TSMC is working hard to bring the best silicon out there, with the company supplying many of the companies like NVIDIA, AMD, Huawei, and Apple - all customers who demand the latest and greatest when it comes to the silicon technology. According to sources close to DigiTimes, TSMC is expected to kick-off volume production of its next-generation 5 nm+ manufacturing node, which is an enhancement of the 5 nm node, as soon as Q4 of this year hits.

Update May 29th: The DigiTimes report indicates that TSMC is preparing the 5 nm+ node for AMD Ryzen 4000 "Vermeer" series of CPUs. Originally planned for using the 7 nm+ node, the CPUs are supposedly ported to a smaller node, providing better transistor performance and lower power consumption. The Ryzen 4000 series of desktop processors were planned for launching later this year, however, being that the new information provided by DigiTimes suggests 5 nm+ node could be used, we can expect to see Zen 3 based processors sometime in early 2021.

Big tradeshows such as the International CES are often used as a benchmark to gauge which areas of consumer-technology are faring better than the other. Industry analyst DigiTimes observed that PC is riding the CES bus on an uncomfortable backseat, which is an indication that the year could be difficult for the PC industry in general.

According to the analyst, although PC makers are aggressively promoting their Windows 8 creations - notebooks, desktops, and dockable tablets, - TV, living-room web-enablement, is attracting the most attention. Why this spells a bad news to PC makers is that with web-browsing being the most popular PC usage activity, no longer needing a PC, and doing so on web-enabled TVs could pose a disruptive innovation for the PC. Also, the theme for 2013, with PC makers appears to be more of cutting prices, instead of new innovations.

In an interview with DigiTimes, ASUS general manager of motherboard business Joe Hsieh commented on reports of Intel abandoning CPU sockets in favor of processors being hardwired to motherboards in BGA packages. Hsieh said that the issue will not be as bad as people think and Intel could find a strategy that allows both soldered and socketed processors to be sold, which is much like today, except that hardwired processors are limited to notebooks (Core i3 and i5 processors in the BGA1224 package) and low-end Atom-driven desktop motherboards.

What lends Hsieh's statement weight, apart from the fact that he leads the biggest PC motherboard design team, is that Intel recently denied those reports, saying it would provide socketed CPUs for "the foreseeable future." Last month, Japanese publication PC Watch, credited for generally accurate tech predictions based on information at hand, reported that following its 22 nm Core "Haswell" CPU family, Intel could transform its entry-, mainstream-, and performance-segment client CPUs to hardwired BGA packages, probably leaving socketed CPUs only to HEDT (high-end desktop) and enterprise Xeon processor lines. Other PC motherboard vendors DigiTimes spoke with echoed ASUS' opinion, they don't believe Intel could "suddenly" completely change the way processors are sold to consumers.

Following entry of USB 3.0 SuperSpeed specification, chip-makers such as Renesas, ASMedia, Etron, and VIA made a killing selling third-party USB 3.0 host controllers to motherboard, desktop, and notebook vendors, which ended after Intel launched its 7-series chipset featuring an integrated 4-port USB 3.0 host controller, resulting in drop in demand for third-party chips. These companies each have USB 3.0 hub controllers, and could help drive growth of the specification with USB 3.0 hubs, devices which multiply the number of USB ports available. USB 3.0 hub controllers have been slow in receiving USB-IF certification due to difficulties in conducting compatibility tests, which could ease out by 2013, since Renesas' chip already passed certification. Most peripherals and flash drive manufacturers could have USB 3.0 hubs among their product lineups.

It looks like recent Ultrabook platform growth forecasts by DRAMeXchange are on the money, as sources associated with PC ODMs in Taiwan are coming forward with expectations of 100% growth in Ultrabook and Ultrabook-like notebook shipments in 2013. It's important to note that the figure is augmented with shipments of various "Ultrabook-like" notebooks, which are tough to classify. By the end of 2013, Ultrabooks will make up 10% of the global notebook shipments, according to the sources.

TSMC broke ground for construction of Fab 14 Phase 6, located in Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSP). The new facility will boost the foundry's 12-inch wafer production capacity, leading the way to construction of Phase 7 in 2013. TSMC's facilities in STSP generate 42% of the company's revenues, with a production value of US $6 billion, hiring over 9,000 employees. Phases 1~4 of Fab 14, which specializes in 12-inch wafers, has a quarterly foundry capacity of 540,000 12-inch wafers to produce over 1,200 different types of ICs for about 150 clients a year, according to company executive vice president and co-COO Chiang Shang-yi. In 2013-14, TSMC Fab 14 will become the world's first fab with 20 nanometer SoC volume production, and the company's first plant to start 16 nanometer FinFET volume production.

In late-2011, ASUS set itself a target of shipping 25 million PC motherboards in the following year. Contributing to its optimism were three new platform launches - Intel Core "Ivy Bridge" (7-series chipset), AMD "Trinity" (socket FM2), and AMD Vishera; and Microsoft's Windows 8 operating system, prompting PC upgrades. Falling demand in US and Europe, and weaker-than-expected shipment growth in China forced ASUS to trim its 2012 target down from 25 million to 22.2 million. In 2011, the company shipped 23.2 million motherboards.

In the first three quarters, ASUS shipped 16.7 million motherboards, and expects to ship no more than 5.5 million; down 5% sequentially, and flat year-over-year. The company faced severe competition from Gigabyte, which shipped 14 million motherboards in the three quarters thus far, and expects to ship 4.5 million in Q4, totaling 18.5 million for the year. The third biggest motherboard vendor, ASRock, is astray from its 2012 goal of 9 million shipments, and is hoping for a more conservative 7 million units target for 2012.

Intel plans to standardize SSD specifications for its Ultrabook platform, which would steer it toward slimmer, faster Ultrabooks. The company plans to invite a large number of industry players, including NAND flash memory makers SanDisk, Micron, and Samsung, for discussions into what is known as Next Generation Form Factor (NGFF), a new SSD form-factor derived from mSATA (think Apple's SSD form-factor found in the MacBook Air).

Intel is in a bit of a hurry with its NGFF SSD plans because the current mSATA form-factor poses limitations, including limited PCB area, in which a limited number of ONFI channels can be wired out. NGFF most likely is mSATA with greater PCB area, allowing the same number of ONFI channels as 2.5-inch SSDs, with the latest generation of controllers and toggle-NAND flash memory. NGFF doesn't increase the thickness of the SSD compared to mSATA, but merely elongates it (again, similar in form to Apple's SSD specifications). Five length standards are being discussed between Intel and Ultrabook partners.

AMD reportedly deferred the launch of its next-generation "Trinity" A-series accelerated processing units (APUs) for desktops, to October, 2012. The products were originally slated for August. The delay affects launches of most APUs in the socket FM2 package, including the A10-5800K, a top-performing part in the series.

Launches of the A-Series "Trinity" APUs appear to have been clubbed with those of the FX-Series "Volan" (Vishera silicon, Piledriver micro-architecture) processors, including the FX-8350 and FX-6300. Meanwhile, AMD is in the process of phasing out its low-cost socket AM3 processors (such as Athlon II AM3, and Phenom II AM3), replacing them with Athlon II FM2, Phenom II AM3+, and mid-range FX-Series AM3+.

Owing to an overhaul of the MacBook Pro to the "wedge-shaped" design in use by its MacBook Air family, Apple is reportedly seeing labour shortages by its suppliers, due to strong demand by Apple. It is even reported that some of these suppliers are outsourcing portions of their processes to meet shipment schedules. It is unusual for suppliers (ODMs and OEMs) to see labour shortages this time of the year (May-June), due to a traditionally slow season, however, Apple strong orders from Apple's new MacBook are leaving many upstream makers unable to satisfy demand. According to sources, it is likely that Apple launches its new MacBook line in July.

With launches of new-generation GPUs by NVIDIA and AMD, and new ARM application processor designs by various industry players, TSMC is under pressure to ramp up its production capacity for its new 28 nanometer note. DigiTimes research suggests that this ramp-up is going at a faster rate than older processes such as 40 nm and 65 nm nodes (when those were new). Digitimes Research analyst Nobunaga Chai claims that the 28 nm node started generating revenues in Q4, 2011, and sales ratio reached 5% in the following quarter. It is anticipated to see TSMC significantly ramp up its 28nm production capacity later in 2012, Chai believes.

With over-production, swelling-inventories, and cutthroat competition that doesn't allow even subtle price-increases, DDR3 is a lost-cause for DRAM makers such as Samsung. It is hence hedging its bets on the early arrival of DDR4, and the only company that can make that happen is Intel. Samsung is not only a major supplier of DRAM memory, but also a big player in server memory. It had its first DDR4 UDIMM ready as early as in January 2011. Reports of Intel slating DDR4-equipped platforms in 2013 has Samsung perturbed. Samsung and Hynix are the only two DRAM majors with developed DDR4 products. According to DigiTimes' analysis, DRAM vendors see DDR4 as the only way they can pull themselves out of their ailing situation.

With the new Ultrabook specification being governed by Intel, and compatible Ivy Bridge Core processors facing delays, Taiwan-based notebook vendors are finding incentives in launching "Ultrabook-like" PCs, notebooks that are about as compact as Ultrabooks, but with vendors' own hardware specifications. Such PCs are also said to be designed keeping in mind lower price-points, such as $600. These notebooks will do away with expensive metal unibody chassis, hollow hinges, and SSDs, and replace them with more cost-effective ones. For example, 7 mm-thick HDDs are already announced. Those could make viable alternatives for SSDs. Such Ultrabook-alternatives could be launched as early as in Q2-2012, sources note.

Taiwan's premier chip foundry, TSMC, is reportedly seeing strong demand for sub-40 nm chip manufacturing. It's easy to manufacture smaller, simpler chips on new foundry nodes than complex devices such as GPUs. Hence, the source notes that it's wireless communication device chip manufactures that have sub-40 nm nodes at TSMC fully booked up. The foundly also scored orders from local and foreign fabless audio IC firms. "In fact, TSMC's 6-inch fab dedicated to process analog and LCD driver ICs has been running at full capacity since late February, with shipment delivery times to customers being extended to more than 12 weeks, the sources pointed out," notes DigiTimes.

ASUS decided to bail on this year's edition of CeBIT, Europe's biggest consumer electronics and computer expo, held annually in Hanover, Germany. It has reportedly scrapped plans of setting up a booth there. What makes this big news is that it's ASUS - the single biggest vendor of PC motherboards, a notable vendor of notebooks, netbooks, and other computer hardware. Perhaps it's the timing of CeBIT that ASUS isn't quite liking, which falls right in between CES, held in early-January, in the US; and Computex, held mid-year in Taiwan, home of most computer hardware manufacturers, including ASUS. CES and Computex both have a fair attendance of European press anyway. No other companies similar to ASUS have reported to scrap their CeBIT plans. ASRock and Biostar have plans to set up small booths.

Affordable Ultrabooks, which strike a cost-benefit sweet-spot when priced in the US $599-699 range are unlikely to become a reality till 2013, sources among notebook vendors told DigiTimes. The same sources also note that pricing will be the key to driving demand for Ultrabooks. They attribute this to high production costs, which will likely persist till next year.

Components such as SSDs, which are key to keeping these devices ultra-slim, cost 10-times as much as HDDs, custom-design ultra-thin display panels, and aluminum unibody chassis are still quite expensive, even as major ODMs are ramping up infrastructure to mass-produce some of these components. Even with the most aggressive cost-cutting, the cheapest Ultrabooks available in 2012 will cost US $799.

Idaho-based Micron Technology is reportedly going to spend at least US $500 million in purchasing a stake in its Japanese rival, Elpida, according to a Economic Daily News report. This development closely follows reports of an equity tie-up between the two companies, with a decision emerging in February.

Taiwanese Nanya Technology and Inotera Memories stated in recent reports that DRAM makers should consider uniting their operations as such moves could contribute to the industry's sustainable development. Elpida refused to comment on this latest report. What does this mean to the consumer? The year 2011 has been a bloodbath for DRAM makers as overproduction led to drastic drops in PC memory prices, and a watershed for PC consumers as a result. These latest developments could contribute to the inevitable rebound of DRAM prices in 2012.

Taiwan foundries are going to be cutting prices by 10 to 15% for wafers built on mature node processes. Since these wafers have lower production costs the foundries are passing on the savings. This move is to boost consumer confidence in building their inventory after a year of shaky ground in the U.S. and European markets. This according to DigiTimes.

Also DigiTimes is reporting despite slow demand for mature process manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) continues to see orders heat up for advanced 28nm technology, according to sources at non Taiwan-based chip suppliers.

This news could mean that these same vendors that are getting a cut in overhead thanks to the foundries could pass on the savings to the end customer to boost revenue.

TSMC told industry observers that its plans to test large 18 inch wafers are on schedule for 2012-13, and should reach volume production in 2015. Silicon chips are manufactured on large discs known as wafers, and cut out of them. Like pizza, the sizes of wafers are measured by their diameters. The 18 inch diameter wafer has been something TSMC has been working on. Larger the wafer, the more chips can be cut out of a single wafer. It works to reduce production costs. TSMC expects to have 95% of its 18 inch wafer production equipment installed in 2014, and commence volume production by 2015. Currently, TSMC faces technical hurdles that have to be solved in collaboration with equipment and material suppliers.

Today DigiTimes reported Acers Chairman JT Wang, announced that the company will be downsizing its product line two-thirds by the end of 2012. Mr. Wangs statement leaned this maneuver as more of a streamline process rather then a downsize citing he expected sales to increase by 10% or higher within the next year. Mr. Wang also stated that this downsize will not effect its outsourcing partners. However, Acer's major partners including Quanta Computer, Compal Electronics, Wistron and Pegatron Technology have decline to comment. One cannot help but wonder how many other manufactures will follow suit in these hard economic times.