# China has lost control of its space station?



## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 12, 2016)

China may have lost contact with its first ever space station raising fears that it could career back to Earth in an uncontrolled re-entry.

The Chinese Tiangong-1 space station module was launched in 2011 and was expected to be deorbited at the end of its life to crash into the ocean or burn up in the atmosphere.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiangong-1
But there are reports China has lost control of the spacecraft, meaning it could crash back into the Earth's atmosphere







Satellite trackers who have been watching the movement of Tiangong as it orbits the Earth believe China may have lost control of the unmanned 8 ton (7.3 tonnes) vehicle.

Thomas Dorman, an amateur satellite tracker, told Space.com: 'If I am right, China will wait until the last minute to let the world know it has a problem with their space station.

Chinese officials have yet to confirm any plans for the fate of Tiangong-1, and some experts think it may still be possible to bring the spacecraft down in a controlled fashion.

Tiangong-1, which means 'Heavenly Palace', was launched in September 2011 with the hope of creating a larger space complex that China wants to be operational in Earth orbit around 2020.

The module has performed a series of docking exercises, including the uncrewed Shenzhou-8 mission in 2011 and the crewed Shenzhou-10 mission in 2012.


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 12, 2016)

I'm sure NORAD has about a dozen eyes (satellites/RADARs) on it.  I wouldn't be worried about it until NORAD says it's a problem.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 12, 2016)

I wonder if NORAD would sanction an uncontrolled, unpredictable reentry or work with the Chinese to ensure a safe demise.



Live Satellite Tracker

http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=37820#MAP


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## Jetster (Jul 12, 2016)

I wonder how many counterfeit parts are on that thing


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 12, 2016)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> I wonder if NORAD would sanction an uncontrolled, unpredictable reentry or work with the Chinese to ensure a safe demise.


If it was going to hit a populated area, they'd no doubt fire a THAAD at it to change its trajectory.  Not worried at all about it.


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 12, 2016)

thats what happens when all your shit is made in *Taiwan 









*


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 12, 2016)

I doubt if there are any Taiwanese components on board....the 2 nations are pretty hostile to each other.


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 12, 2016)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> I doubt if there are any Taiwanese components on board....the 2 nations are pretty hostile to each other.



Not 'that' hostile... China just wants to unite with Taiwan because they are supposedly the same people, (all chinese or have chinese origins) but Taiwan doesnt really care for it and would much rather keep its independence then rejoin the collective and be controlled.... Same thing goes for Hong Kong. China wants Hong Kong to accept its fate and become one with the P.R.C but H.K doesn't want to become a puppet and have their fate dictated to them


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 12, 2016)

Yeah, and pretty big fear all of the maneuvering in the South China Sea is the crescendo leading to a climax involving PRC seizing Taiwan and/or Hong Kong.


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## Caring1 (Jul 12, 2016)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I'm sure NORAD has about a dozen eyes (satellites/RADARs) on it.  I wouldn't be worried about it until NORAD says it's a problem.


Unless it's going to hit U.S. soil they probably won't worry about it.


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## dorsetknob (Jul 12, 2016)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Yeah, and pretty big fear all of the maneuvering in the South China Sea is the crescendo leading to a climax involving PRC seizing Taiwan and/or Hong Kong.


Your Years Behind the news.....China HAS HONG KONG  (since middle of 1997 ) and As for China Reintegrating Taiwan  VERY MUCH DOUBT IT
Its not in USA /Japanese INTEREST To Allow China to Seize and Reintegrate Taiwan against the will of the Taiwanese people


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 12, 2016)

BBC are following this thread .....


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349


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## dorsetknob (Jul 12, 2016)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> BBC are following this thread .....
> 
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349


thats Because some one at the BBC fears that The Chinese Tiangong-1 space station module will be deliberately be re entered to crash in the disputed Area
Giving the Chinese the Propaganda claim that they the chinese colonized it from Space


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 12, 2016)

Caring1 said:


> Unless it's going to hit U.S. soil they probably won't worry about it.


Ideally China would deal with it, but failing that, USA would intervene after making sure the craft is derelict.  THAADs are set up all around the world to detail with threats like this.  The US Navy actually shot down one of its own spy satellites a while back.  They used the much larger (compared to THAAD) SM-3.



dorsetknob said:


> Your Years Behind the news.....China HAS HONG KONG  (since middle of 1997 ) and As for China Reintegrating Taiwan  VERY MUCH DOUBT IT
> Its not in USA /Japanese INTEREST To Allow China to Seize and Reintegrate Taiwan against the will of the Taiwanese people


It's autonomous. It's not entirely independent but it's also not entirely of China.  The fear is that China would exert completely control over the territory like Russia did to Crimea.

I think China is just waiting for the right opportunity to strike Taiwan when they're certain no one else would intervene.  I wouldn't be surprised if China feels the clock is ticking because Philippines, Australia, and Japan are stepping up their militaries.

If I had to stake money on it, I'd say 60% chance Hong Kong is going to lose its autonomy eventually; 15% on China seizing Taiwan.  But, what do I know?  I'm an arm chair general. 



CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> BBC are following this thread .....
> 
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349


Yeah, debated about posting about how China violated international law (just came out today).  Additionally, North Korea broke off their only official means to communicate with the USA too.  "Contentious," as the article is titled, about sums it up.


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 12, 2016)

In any case regarding the south china sea. namely the Spratlys islands - that now belongs to the philippines according to the *Permanent Court of Arbitration* so China can f**k right off   though China isnt going to take this one sitting down obviously. Relations between China and the Philippines aint the best since the incident where a tour bus full of chinese tourists got taken hostage and apparently the filipino army bodged the rescue resulting in the death of all those onboard the tour bus.... 
things will get a lot worse between them. They may even ban import/exports to and from there as well as cut down on visitors from that country and even go as far to f**k with filipino citizens who live and work in China. Unless you have a lot of money, which most filipinos probably dont have or own a business which generates China a lot of money via tax etc etc then China will play the role of a rather sore loser.


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## rtwjunkie (Jul 12, 2016)

Having actually travelled to Hong Kong several tines, as well as Shanghai twice I have to say that Hong Kong has the same basic status as Shanghai.  They are only semi-autonomous commercial zones.  This is because they are cash cows for China. That will not likely change.

In all other ways, Hong Kong is under Chinese control and their autonomy is extremely limited.  

This is only based on country studies and personal observation. It could be completely wrong.


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## dorsetknob (Jul 12, 2016)

rtwjunkie said:


> Hong Kong is under Chinese control and their autonomy is extremely limited.



BASED on A Signed PIECE OF PAPER ( and ignoring the FACT that china has Garrisoned Hong Kong with both ARMY AND NAVY units under the control of the PRC )


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## dorsetknob (Jul 12, 2016)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_missile_test

On January 11, 2007, China conducted an anti-satellite missile test. A Chinese weather satellite—the FY-1C polar orbit satellite of the Fengyun series, at an altitude of 865 kilometres (537 mi), with a mass of 750 kg[1]—was destroyed by a kinetic kill vehicle traveling with a speed of 8 km/s in the opposite direction



CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> Satellite trackers who have been watching the movement of Tiangong as it orbits the Earth believe China may have lost control of the unmanned 8 ton (7.3 tonnes) vehicle.



Lets pray and hope this is not the solution by any one that has the capability to destroy by a kinetic kill vehicle

boot note 
the australian towns of Esperance and Rawlinna,  are put on high alert


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 12, 2016)

Yeah, so hopefully they can take care of it themselves if it is a problem.  SM-3 is a larger missile than they used  so if one hit isn't enough, can always hit it again.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 12, 2016)

This is the one @dorsetknob 

 debris from the Fengyun-1C spacecraft

http://www.seeker.com/orbital-debris-from-chinese-satellite-tops-3000-pieces-1765128675.html



Part of that debris did this
http://www.space.com/20135-china-s-...-debris-hits-russian-satellite-animation.html



And the US added some more junk too
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...sion-adds-43-pieces-debris-region-planet.html


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## tabascosauz (Jul 12, 2016)

China has an operational ASAT, so I doubt that they would wait for the US to do the job with SM-3. Although every use of a weapon like an ASAT missile is more akin to a strategic weapon political impact, so it's not a decision to be taken lightly.

The tensions surrounding China's highly dubious and illegal (I did not say that international *law* has had much impact on the actions of world powers in *diplomacy* over the past 50 years) are legitimate, but linking this is ridiculous. China's got its own space program going on because no one else can be bothered to cooperate with it because of how late it is.


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## dorsetknob (Jul 12, 2016)

tabascosauz said:


> but linking this is ridiculous.


Linking is Fair speculation
China Has an ASAT Weapon china has State Secrets to protect ( they would not like the rest of the world to find out how much " Foreign Tech " has been appropriated and included).

The Danger to the Rest of the worlds Space efforts are linked with How China Deals with this Rogue out of Control SEVERN AND A HALF TON PIECE OF SPACE JUNK


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 12, 2016)

tabascosauz said:


> China's got its own space program going on because no one else can be bothered to cooperate with it because of how late it is.


Pretty sure every country with a large economy has some kind of space program stemmed from the need for launching satellites.  Even when the Shuttles were grounded, the Air Force was still launching satellites, for example.


There will no doubt have to be an international space cleaning project eventually.  The reason why there isn't right now is because of the cost to reach orbit.  Having to reposition satellites to avoid debris is costly by itself.  At some point, cleaning up the garbage will prove cheaper than avoiding it.


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 12, 2016)

tabascosauz said:


> China's got its own space program going on because no one else can be bothered to cooperate with it because of how late it is.



thats not the problem... The problem is if they partner up with different countries they will end up using that position to steal information.

Not quite the same example but Russia & China had partnered up to build a fighter jet a good few years back. China's team were thrown out of Russia because they were stealing information regarding the build amongst other things and sending it back home.

That and China also likes to be 'on-top', it makes for great propaganda if a chinese designed & made war plane destroys another countries military assets, which translates as them being more superior etc etc


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## Recon-UK (Jul 12, 2016)

As long as it hit's an enemy of mine on the way back i'm happy.


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 12, 2016)

Recon-UK said:


> As long as it hit's an enemy of mine on the way back i'm happy.



That would be Russia then - Id say Daesh but they arent a country.


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## peche (Jul 12, 2016)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I'm sure NORAD has about a dozen eyes (satellites/RADARs) on it.  I wouldn't be worried about it until NORAD says it's a problem.


no problem... we still have Norad II


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## Caring1 (Jul 13, 2016)

dorsetknob said:


> boot note
> the australian towns of Esperance and Rawlinna,  are put on high alert


Wouldn't be the first satellite to come down and hit us.


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 13, 2016)

Caring1 said:


> Wouldn't be the first satellite to come down and hit us.



Thats some Call Of Duty storyline shit right there son. James Bond wants in but i think they already have a few scenes with Satellites.

At least you can kick back and have some aerosmith


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## dorsetknob (Jul 13, 2016)

FreedomEclipse said:


> At least you can kick back and have some


Lou Reed








One upmanship


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 14, 2016)

To prove a point about China not being able to resist spying/stealing data.....


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## D007 (Jul 14, 2016)

Lol.. International space station launches and stays in space for 20 years.. Still kicking.
China makes one and 4 years later, it's falling out of the sky...
Hope it doesn't land on my place..lol.. 8 tons of "oh shit"...

China keeps puffing it's chest out like they have been, they might get into some deep shitnet.

==============================================================
In July 2016, the tribunal backed the Philippines' case, saying China had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights.

China had boycotted the proceedings, and called the ruling "ill-founded". It says it will not be bound by it.
===========================================================

Basically they don't care what anyone says...


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 14, 2016)

To put it bluntly @D007, China is like a playground bully throwing his weight around and picking on the smaller people that cant defend themselves.

All it would take is one good punch to the face that puts them in their place. USA also has military bases in the Philippines so China better watch their back or their gonna get shanked lol


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## rtwjunkie (Jul 14, 2016)

D007 said:


> Basically they don't care what anyone says...



They never have, and never will.


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## dorsetknob (Jul 14, 2016)

Re China  ( and PRNK ) even Japan is now considering having its own nuclear Based *DEFENSIVE DETERRENT
*
Hard as it may be to the collective Japanese conscious there is a growing consensus that they cannot totally rely on the USA  and that they may at some point in the Future have to have their own *DEFENSIVE Nuclear Based DETERRENT*


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## D007 (Jul 15, 2016)

dorsetknob said:


> Re China  ( and PRNK ) even Japan is now considering having its own nuclear Based *DEFENSIVE DETERRENT
> *
> Hard as it may be to the collective Japanese conscious there is a growing consensus that they cannot totally rely on the USA  and that they may at some point in the Future have to have their own *DEFENSIVE Nuclear Based DETERRENT*



Yea, I can see why they'd have such a hard time considering use it.. But maybe that's what makes them the best qualified to use it...
Not condoning Pearl harbor or anything but I like to think that's in the past..
Idk...


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 15, 2016)

dorsetknob said:


> Re China  ( and PRNK ) even Japan is now considering having its own nuclear Based *DEFENSIVE DETERRENT
> *
> Hard as it may be to the collective Japanese conscious there is a growing consensus that they cannot totally rely on the USA  and that they may at some point in the Future have to have their own *DEFENSIVE Nuclear Based DETERRENT*





D007 said:


> Yea, I can see why they'd have such a hard time considering use it.. But maybe that's what makes them the best qualified to use it...
> Not condoning Pearl harbor or anything but I like to think that's in the past..
> Idk...




With Japan, Its not just China they have to worry about - Its North Korea. Its all FUBAR and the tension is so high between China, Japan, North Korea & to a lesser extent South Korea & the philippines though I dont think any of the two would act without the USA's consent unless it was in a self defense situation.

I remember reading somewhere that China said they were slightly worried about North Korea's missile testing.


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 15, 2016)

dorsetknob said:


> Hard as it may be to the collective Japanese conscious there is a growing consensus that they cannot totally rely on the USA  and that they may at some point in the Future have to have their own *DEFENSIVE Nuclear Based DETERRENT*


Related: USA doesn't have enough aircraft; they pulled two dozen aircraft out of the boneyard to be returned to service.



FreedomEclipse said:


> I remember reading somewhere that China said they were slightly worried about North Korea's missile testing.


China is distancing itself from North Korea.  Their relationship is mostly falling down to humanitarian.  Ever since Kim Jong-Il passed away, North Korea has become a loose cannon.


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 15, 2016)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Related: USA doesn't have enough aircraft; they pulled two dozen aircraft out of the boneyard to be returned to service.
> 
> 
> China is distancing itself from North Korea.  Their relationship is mostly falling down to humanitarian.  Ever since Kim Jong-Il passed away, North Korea has become a loose cannon.



we should just throw you yanks a bone and say "go boy! go fetch that oil!!!"


problem solved.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 15, 2016)

Turns out China launched a space debris clearing device a couple of weeks ago.


*Aolong-1, ‘The Roaming Dragon*

Aolong-1, ‘The Roaming Dragon,’ was one of four small satellites sent into orbit aboard the Long March 7 rocket along with a ballast mass and a scaled prototype of China’s Next Generation Crew Vehicle. According to the Harbin Institute of Technology, the small satellite will complete a demonstration of space debris mitigation technology by using a small robotic arm to grab debris pieces and launch them toward the atmosphere.

Aolong-1 – a product of CALT/Harbin – reportedly carries a sub-satellite that will be released at some point in the mission to then be grabbed by the robotic arm. The satellite was most likely delivered to an orbit of 200 by 375-Kilometer orbit, indicating its mission is planned to be of short duration given the longevity of the orbit.


According to Chinese space officials, Aolong-1 is only the first in a series of satellites tasked with the collection of space debris as the country develops the technology needed to retrieve small debris up to entire spacecraft to be safely brought to a destructive re-entry.
*
 South China Morning Post *


An interesting read, with a slightly different spin.
http://spaceflight101.com/long-march-7-maiden-launch/aolong-1-asat-concerns/


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## FreedomEclipse (Jul 15, 2016)

when i saw 'Roaming Dragon' and 'China' in one sentence it took me back to Tropic Thunder










_"This is fwaiming dwagon..."_


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## rtwjunkie (Jul 15, 2016)

Aolong-1 sounds suspiciously like it could be used for more nefarious purposes than just cleaning up "debris".

And, there's a reason engineers try to control as best they can the location and angle that objects re-enter the atmosphere: Safety.  The Chinese method of using a robot arm to just chuck stuff from orbit into the atmosphere just screams dangerous, volatile, and irresponsible for anything that escapes burning up.


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## dont whant to set it"' (Jul 18, 2016)

So who whants to pitch objects from low earth orbit via a ground controled robotic arm?; just show me the controler already.
On a serious note does such tech exist? because aoutomatons in various Earth orbit cleaning shit up aree yet rto be made.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 18, 2016)

http://www.surrey.ac.uk/mediacentre...entre-lead-test-mission-clear-space-junk-2017


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## dorsetknob (Jul 18, 2016)

dont whant to set it"' said:


> So who whants to pitch objects from low earth orbit via a ground controled robotic arm?; just show me the controler already.
> On a serious note does such tech exist? because aoutomatons in various Earth orbit cleaning shit up aree yet rto be made.



any one who wishes to either place NEW or further objects in space either in Orbit or using a Trans Orbital trajectory will want space De-cluttered of man made and Deployed JUNK
many Scientist / inventors and Nation State Space programs are Actively engaged in Research and prototype research 
some idea's include nano Satellites to couple and De-orbit. Carbon nanotube Nets ( Space junk fishing )
Ground Based laser ( currently very practical but legally controversial ).


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## tabascosauz (Jul 18, 2016)

D007 said:


> Lol.. International space station launches and stays in space for 20 years.. Still kicking.
> China makes one and 4 years later, it's falling out of the sky...
> Hope it doesn't land on my place..lol.. 8 tons of "oh shit"...
> 
> ...



It sounds a little strange to say this but unilateral is not necessarily "illegal" in the eyes of international law. The tribunal represents a separate, private method of *arbitration* and isn't some kind of all-binding court. It isn't backed by the United Nations and isn't legally binding on China.

Saw a recent analogy on Quora about this that cleared some things up for me; if we recall how justice systems work, there must be an enforcer/method of enforcement in order for a ruling to be effective. In a private, civil claim for example, even if the court rules in favour of a certain party and thus gives that party the right to enforce the decision (whether it be money or whatever), if that party decides not to enforce, the ruling is next to useless. With this tribunal's ruling, there is no enforcer, even if we assume that the ruling was legally binding.

So basically, there is no reason for China to listen to what the tribunal says. Popular culture and games like COD lead us to believe that the mere mention of the word "Hague" indicates some sort of all-powerful authority that is binding on every nation in the world. That's not how it is here.

Not saying that I think China embarking on aggressive unilateral expansion in SEA is "right" or a good idea stability-wise, and it is true that it threatens "weaker" Southeast Asian countries' sovereignty, even with countries such as Malaysia that don't have _such_ a problem with China as the Philippines does due to their cooperation with China. It also isn't correct, however, to give significant (or any whatsoever) legal weight to this decision by the tribunal. What's happening in SEA is not the same as what's happening in Ukraine, and so the consequences will be appropriately different as well.

-- What *could be* positive is that the new president Duterte has hinted at possible cooperation with China _if_ China stops its claims (presumably only the ones affecting the Philippines), which is a definite departure from the past, completely hostile stance of the Philippines government towards China. That is, if China decides to let up, which I highly doubt will be the case. We can hope, though. Duterte is much more skeptical of the US and willing to talk to China, and reminds me a little bit of South Korean leadership in recent years. Although the West likes to believe that it has a wholeheartedly committed ally in SK like it does in JP, SK is more of a middleman than anything.

On the topic of their space programme, to be blunt, _what did you expect_? When the US put Armstrong and Aldrin on the moon in 1969, China was still poor as hell, recovering from the Great Leap Forward, and in the throes of the Cultural Revolution. For those who aren't familiar with those events, the former was a massive famine beyond the scale of most Western readers' comprehension, and the latter was all-out social anarchy and hell on earth. China missed out on most of the advancements made in recent years, and wasn't a part of the extensive US - ESA - *Russia* cooperation on space exploration and the International Space Station. They've always been doing their own thing (not that anyone would want to work with them, given all the fear about cyberattacks, surveillance and China stealing Western secrets), without any prior experience, so _what did you expect_?



dorsetknob said:


> Re China  ( and PRNK ) even Japan is now considering having its own nuclear Based *DEFENSIVE DETERRENT
> *
> Hard as it may be to the collective Japanese conscious there is a growing consensus that they cannot totally rely on the USA  and that they may at some point in the Future have to have their own *DEFENSIVE Nuclear Based DETERRENT*



Not sure if serious 

If so that would be a pretty serious unilateral change to the balance of power in SEA

Though if they are just "considering it" then it won't be anything much. Everyone knows that virtually everyone in China hates Japan and virtually everyone in Japan hates China, but what most people aren't aware of is the two have the closest economic links of just about any country in the region (despite being "political enemies", and neither country is run by flamboyant, provocative idiots (Kim family) so nothing serious is going to become of it. Economic relations != military affairs, but people need to remember that there isn't an active state of war between the two countries. Diplomatic relations have been good between China and SK, and have taken a turn for the better the past few decades between China and JP.

@dorsetknob About that ground-based-laser thing, IIRC the US was the first to renounce its agreed compliance with the ABM Treaty, but I think the Outer Space Treaty still stands (though would it fall under the OST??). It does conjure up memories of Reagan's Star wars, which was shut down mostly on expense but also because of what would be massive political/strategic consequences between US and Russia, so yeah, you're right, I don't think we'll be seeing that anytime soon.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 18, 2016)

Energia, Russia's space corporation, is planning to build a "pod" that will knock junk out of orbit and back down to earth.According to Fast Company, the pod will have a nuclear power core to keep it running for about 15 years while it orbits the earth knocking defunct satellites out of orbit so that it can either burn up in the atmosphere or drop into the ocean . The pod will be constructed by 2020 and the company hopes it will be in operation by 2013. One of the company's representatives, Victor Sinyavsky, states "The corporation promised to clean up the space in ten years by collecting about 600 defunct satellites on the same geosynchronous orbit and sinking them into the ocean subsequently,"



From 2010
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_To_Spend_2_Bln_Dollars_For_Space_Clean_Up_999.html


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 18, 2016)

Just to be clear, there is nothing "defensive" about nuclear weapons.  They are strictly offensive weapons.  They are only a deterrent because of MAD (mutually assured destruction).  MAD was true in the Cold War but I don't know if it is any more.

Japan occupied a large part of China during WW2.  The main reason why Japan wants nukes is because North Korea has nukes; that said, Japan is concerned about the aggressiveness China is displaying in the region.

ABL was the go-to-test for long range weaponized LASERs.  The plan was mostly scrapped in favor of much smaller variants with very short ranges (like two miles).  Ground based lasers really don't pose much threat to things in orbit because there's so much atmosphere to go through to get there.  LASERs would work great in space though but, as stated, there are treaties against weaponizing orbit.  If it works, I wouldn't be surprised if an exception were to be created using LASERs to push debris back to Earth.


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## dorsetknob (Jul 18, 2016)

tabascosauz said:


> Not sure if serious


DEADLY SERIOUS

On 17 June 1974, Japanese Prime Minister Tsutomu Hata told reporters that "it's certainly the case that Japan has the capability to possess nuclear weapons but has not made them." This remark aroused widespread concern in the international media at that time.

On 31 May 2002, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda became the most senior Tokyo official to publicly discuss Japan's acquisition of nuclear weapons. Fukuda said Japan's peace constitution did not preclude nuclear weapons, and that the times have "changed to the point that even revising the constitution is being talked about." He suggested that "depending upon the world situation, circumstances and public opinion could require Japan to possess nuclear weapons."

Some Reading for you here ( above paragraphs taken from here )
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/japan/nuke.htm


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## tabascosauz (Jul 18, 2016)

I should get back on topic. My apologies for going OT.

Article here says we shouldn't have anything to worry about even if the space station does re-enter the atmosphere, as it's more likely to burn up than anything (not intended to survive reentry).





I guess you could ask "what's to stop TG-2 from suffering the same fate as Skylab"? Nothing, I guess. Even experienced ol' NASA was not aware that Skylab would become such a gong show. But without any effective method of getting rid of space junk, maybe our best bet is to let as much of it burn up if it falls back to Earth.

@dorsetknob What baffles me is that oppolsition politicians in Japan keep on discussing "hitting North korea with nukes". I wasn't aware that NK was that high up the priority list for Japan. I guess it is a good thing that Abe can keep these far-right loons in line so they don't get Japan remilitarized and become a big pain int he ass for politics in all of Asia. SK is the one rightly concerned about North Korea and are the ones getting THAAD, which happens to be one hell of an annoyance for China because unlike Russia, China was not signatory to the INF Treaty banning IRBMs and MRBMs are still in the Chinese arsenal and part of China's strategy IIRC. So I really do not know why any Japanese politician in his right mind would consider discussing the nuclear option. It's a big deal as the military relationship between Japan and China isn't equal and isn't supposed to be equal, since Japan relying on the US is a given in any situation; "defensive" nukes are still nukes and will change the balance significantly if introduced. Good thing they've considered it since 1974 and nothing's come of it.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 18, 2016)

FordGT90Concept said:


> treaties against weaponizing orbit




theres the crux of it.

if you can clear debris you have the potential to "cleanup" anything you like.


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 18, 2016)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> theres the crux of it.
> 
> if you can clear debris you have the potential to "cleanup" anything you like.


Indeed, but nothing is really secret in orbit.  Kind of like nuclear testing.  If a country does something they shouldn't, everyone knows about it within a day.

That said, I'm pretty sure at least Russia and USA have contingency plans for the weaponization of orbit.  I know I saw footage of a US built hunter-killer satellite that was obviously never deployed.


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## dorsetknob (Jul 18, 2016)

people still wonder what this is up to


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## tabascosauz (Jul 18, 2016)

dorsetknob said:


> people still wonder what this is up to



They've done like 4 missions with it in the past few years. The lastest one has yet to come down, and it's been like, over a year. Doesn't hold anyone though as of yet because only the larger, planned successor is manned. But still, I think one would rather take this up into space than that shitty CST-100 or whatever from Boeing that is basically an Apollo capsule. 7 people in an Apollo capsule, and it's supposed to be _reused_ after re-entering 10 times.

Are you applying your ridiculous sardine economics from the 10-abreast 777-300ER to space travel now, Boeing? Boeing decrees that all space travellers are officially sardine-class fliers now. Less legroom = more profit.


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 18, 2016)

That looks like it is predominantly designed for reentry.  The only way it makes sense to me is if it were used to recover stuff from space.  For example, it may be cheaper to repair a satellite on Earth than in orbit.  I could see that being launched to recover something in orbit, they service it, then relaunch it.

They could do that with the old shuttles though and, as far as I know, they never did.  Are there some really, really expensive satellites up there that are so valuable it is cheaper to recover than replace?


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jul 18, 2016)

Below is a checklist of *Space Shuttle-related (deployed; or retrieved, repaired, and re-deployed; or recovered) satellites*, including launch dates and images of the satellites.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/dev/hillger/Shuttle-related.htm


EDIT

The short version

LDEF from NASA was more of a container than a satellite in the classic sense; its purpose was to expose a multitude of material samples to space for a long time; recovery was necessary to perform analysis of the samples and how they fared in space.

Both Palapa B-2 and Westar 6 were commercial communication satellites, that ended up in wrong, useless orbits through their boosters misfiring. They were recovered for refurbishing, resold to other parties and put in orbit again, where they serve just fine. (in case of Palapa insurance reasons might have played a role, but I'm not exactly clear as to, _how_).

EURECA was an European unmanned laboratory, many of its experiments involving material engineering (also, biology). It was recovered to collect the results (products) of the experiments and to be refurbished and resupplied with a new batch of experiments for relaunch (which never happened).

Space Flyer Unit was another laboratory, this time launched by Japan, but containing experiments valuable to NASA and American organizations and corporations. It contained some material engineering related experiments, and one biology-related (hatching an egg). Retrieval of products of the experiments was required.


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## Caring1 (Jul 19, 2016)

tabascosauz said:


> I should get back on topic. My apologies for going OT.
> 
> Article here says we shouldn't have anything to worry about even if the space station does re-enter the atmosphere, as it's more likely to burn up than anything (not intended to survive reentry).
> 
> View attachment 77026


Funny how the article makes no mention of the US Skylab actually hitting mainland Australia, it mentions it re entered over the Indian Ocean though.


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## R-T-B (Jul 19, 2016)

Caring1 said:


> Funny how the article makes no mention of the US Skylab actually hitting mainland Australia, it mentions it re entered over the Indian Ocean though.



It probably hit what, a wallaby?  No one cares.

...I'm just messing with you man.


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 19, 2016)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> Below is a checklist of *Space Shuttle-related (deployed; or retrieved, repaired, and re-deployed; or recovered) satellites*, including launch dates and images of the satellites.
> 
> 
> http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/dev/hillger/Shuttle-related.htm
> ...


The market for a shuttle-like vehicle is bigger than I thought.


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## tabascosauz (Jul 19, 2016)

Caring1 said:


> Funny how the article makes no mention of the US Skylab actually hitting mainland Australia, it mentions it re entered over the Indian Ocean though.



It was inevitably going to produce a certain amount of debris that would fall to the ground, as with all such stations that meet their demise through re-entry. Mir was deorbited and its debris path was in the ocean, not too far from the east coast of Australia as well IIRC. The good thing is that stuff like this never actually hits anyone, it usually lands in the middle of nowhere and worst case scenario if it is unplanned it might just land in some random farmer's field. I think NASA was actually fined $400 by some Australian city/area council for littering Skylab pieces 

If it stays in space, it's really quite dangerous as it can't be controlled/contacted, and if it disintegrates it becomes a threat to everything other craft that comes close to its orbit. Best to let it fall back to the earth and land in the middle of nowhere, maybe hitting a wild animal or two on the way. To be honest, maybe China's new space trash-throwing probe is _capable_ of other uses like messing with other countries' satellites. But I personally don't think that's going to be a thing; secretly eavesdropping on others' satellites with secret satellites of your own (cough cough *USA* cough cough *National Reconnaissance Office *cough cough *Prowler */ *Magnum* SIGINT satellites cough cough) is already dubious and borderline acceptable and a highly secretive and classified affair, so I highly doubt that China would just go around with its new probe and give other satellites the good ol' one-two in the face (not to mention that it wouldn't accomplish anything either). For small pieces of space junk, this probe could prove its usefulness if used with caution and left in experienced hands.

China may be aggressive in its cyberwarfare department, but don't be fooled for a second that the US doesn't fund its own counterpart just as heavily. As with US cyberwarfare, half of all "surveillance" conducted from outer space by the U.S. from satellites like the Prowler is so secretive all the way from launch to decommissioning/deorbiting that the only info comes from amateur but greatly experienced observers who watch the skies on a 24/7 basis. The Prowler's job was literally to spy on USSR satellites, and had technology to mask its signature and make it hard to detect. It was only after the probe had long been decommissioned when it finally became observable to amateurs on the ground because its stealth technology was no longer effective after a long time of inactivity.


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## FordGT90Concept (Jul 19, 2016)

tabascosauz said:


> China may be aggressive in its cyberwarfare department, but don't be fooled for a second that the US doesn't fund its own counterpart just as heavily.


Governments spying on other governments is normal.  What is abnormal is China trying to steal private (business) secrets during peacetime.

Just off the top of my head, USA sabotaged Iran's centrifuges and infected Merkel's telecommunications.

USA still operates U-2S spy planes, has a growing fleet of spy drones (RQ-4, RQ-170), and has a fleet of spy satellites.  RQ-180 and SR-72 are in development.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Oct 13, 2017)

China’s space agency has  notified the UN that it expects Tiangong-1 to come down between October 2017 and April 2018.







 In recent weeks it has dipped into more dense reaches of Earth’s atmosphere and started falling faster.

“Now that [its] perigee is below 300km and it is in denser atmosphere, the rate of decay is getting higher,” said Jonathan McDowell, a renowned astrophysicist from Harvard University and a space industry enthusiast.

“I expect it will come down a few months from now – late 2017 or early 2018.”

Altitude of Tianong-1
Although much of the craft is expected to burn up in the atmosphere, McDowell says some parts might still weigh up to 100kg when they crash into the Earth’s surface.

The chance that anyone will be harmed by the debris is considered remote but China told the United Nations “Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space” in May that it would carefully monitor the craft’s descent and inform the United Nations when it begins its final plunge.

Predicting where it is going to come down would be impossible even in the days ahead of its landing, McDowell said.

“You really can’t steer these things,” he said in 2016. “Even a couple of days before it re-enters we probably won’t know better than six or seven hours, plus or minus, when it’s going to come down. Not knowing when it’s going to come down translates as not knowing where it’s going to come down.”

McDowell said a slight change in atmospheric conditions could nudge the landing site “from one continent to the next”.

There have been many uncontrolled re-entries of larger spacecraft and none have ever been reported to have caused injuries to people.

In 1991 the Soviet Union’s 20-tonne Salyut 7 space station crashed to Earth while still docked to another 20-tonne spacecraft called Cosmos 1686. They broke up over Argentina, scattering debris over the town of Capitán Bermúdez.

Nasa’s enormous 77-tonne Skylab space station came hurtling to Earth in an almost completely uncontrolled descent in 1979, with some large pieces landing outside Perth in Western Australia.


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## rtwjunkie (Oct 14, 2017)

I noticed it is a very small margin of error, as the ISS orbits at times as low as 330km.  I'm sure it scrapes some atmosphere occasionally too at that point.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Nov 9, 2017)

The European Space Agency (ESA) predicts that the 8.5-tonne spacecraft will make an 'uncontrolled re-entry' to our planet between January and March 2018.

While a precise landing location remains unclear, ESA has provided the latitudes between which Tiangong-1 is likely to land – and countries at risk include Spain, Italy, Turkey, India and parts of the US.







ESA has announced that it is hosting an international campaign to monitor the re-entry of Tiangong-1 early next year.

The craft is now at about 300 kilometres (186 miles) altitude in an orbit that is expected to decay sometime between January and March 2018, when it will make an uncontrolled re-entry.

Holger Krag, head of ESA's Space Debris Office, said: 'Owing to the geometry of the station's orbit, we can already exclude the possibility that any fragments will fall over any spot further north than 43°N or further south than 43°S.








Much of the spacecraft is expected to burn up in the atmosphere upon re-entry

Owing to the station's mass and construction materials, there is a possibility that some portions of it will survive and reach the surface.

In the history of spaceflight, no casualties due to falling space debris have ever been confirmed.

ESA plans to conduct an international expert workshop on 28 February to focus on re-entry predictions, in the hopes of anticipating Tiangong's return to Earth.


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## FordGT90Concept (Nov 9, 2017)

Eh, pretty sure NORAD has eyes on it around the clock...along with everything else in near Earth orbit.  If it's going to potentially hit a populated area, they'll notify whomever needs to be notified.

70% of the planet's surface is water.  Odds are it will harmlessly land in the Pacific Ocean.


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## Jetster (Nov 9, 2017)

Remember when Skylab returned to earth? One thing that made it thru the burn was a two ton vault. Landed in the ocean. With Skylab they were able to control the trajectory a little as it reintered.


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## FordGT90Concept (Nov 9, 2017)

Skylab wasn't adrift though where Tiangong-1 is.  If China still had control over Tiangong-1, they would have made it break trajectory and fall into an ocean like Skylab.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Nov 18, 2017)

3D Online Satellite Tracking for TIANGONG 1

http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=37820#TOP




and heres tracking for a satellite that is supposed  to decay in the atmosphere tomorrow
http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=8425&sid=2#TOP


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jan 8, 2018)

China's space station, Tiangong-1, does not pose a safety threat, a top Chinese spaceflight engineer said on Monday

Zhu Congpeng, a top engineer at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, told the state-backed Science and Technology Daily newspaper that the space station was not out of control and did not pose a safety or environmental threat.
'We have been continuously monitoring Tiangong-1 and expect to allow it to fall within the first half of this year,' Zhu told the newspaper.
'It will burn up on entering the atmosphere and the remaining wreckage will fall into a designated area of the sea, without endangering the surface,' he said.
Re-entry was delayed in September 2017 in order to ensure that the wreckage would fall into an area of the South Pacific ocean where debris from Russian and US space stations had previously landed, the paper said.


*TIANGONG-1*





The vehicle is 10.4 metres long and has a main diameter of 3.35 metres. It has a liftoff mass of 8,506 kilograms and provides 15 cubic metres of pressurised volume
Tiangong-1 is China's first Space Station Module.
The vehicle was the nation's first step towards its ultimate goal of developing, building, and operating a large Space Station as a permanent human presence in Low Earth Orbit.
The module was launched on September 29, 2012.
Tiangong-1 features flight-proven components of Chinese Shenzhou Spacecraft as well as new technology.
The module consists of three sections: the aft service module, a transition section and the habitable orbital module.
The vehicle is 10.4 metres long and has a main diameter of 3.35 metres.
It has a liftoff mass of 8,506 kilograms and provides 15 cubic metres of pressurized volume.


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## rtwjunkie (Jan 8, 2018)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> Zhu Congpeng, a top engineer at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, told the state-backed Science and Technology Daily newspaper that the space station was not out of control and did not pose a safety or environmental threat.


FTFY:
*While nervously glancing at the assault-rifle armed troops staged just outside his lab*, Zhu Congpeng, a top engineer at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, told the state-backed Science and Technology Daily newspaper that the space station was not out of control and did not pose a safety or environmental threat.


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## newtekie1 (Jan 8, 2018)

rtwjunkie said:


> I noticed it is a very small margin of error, as the ISS orbits at times as low as 330km.  I'm sure it scrapes some atmosphere occasionally too at that point.




Actually, pretty much everything in low earth orbit is still hitting atmosphere.  The atmosphere extends to about 480km(300 Miles).  The ISS has to do a boost burn every so often to adjust for the slowdown caused by the drag of the atmosphere.


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## Sasqui (Jan 8, 2018)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> China's space station, Tiangong-1, does not pose a safety threat, a top Chinese spaceflight engineer said on Monday



According to SatFlare, best chances of coming down are in March...

http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=37820#TOP  (really cool site).



> *The chinese space station Tiangong-1 (Heavenly Palace) has been declared out of control by chinese authorities and will re-enter the atmosphere in the coming months. Most parts of the orbiting lab are expected to burn up during falling, however some parts may reach the ground. The following figures report decay predictions and altitude (both perigee and apogee). According to the analysis of the orbital elements gathered during the last months, the re-enter may accour in February 2018 (20%), in March 2018 (60%) on in April 2018 (20%). Predictions may change as new orbital measurements will be available. *


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## Vayra86 (Jan 8, 2018)

So skimming over this topic,

Tian's gone?


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## Sasqui (Jan 8, 2018)

Vayra86 said:


> So skimming over this topic,
> 
> Tian's gone?



It's looking like it WILL be, click on the link I posted above to Satflare


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jan 8, 2018)

Sasqui said:


> It's looking like it WILL be, click on the link I posted above to Satflare




alternatively, read the thread and find the same link posted in mid November.


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## Vayra86 (Jan 8, 2018)

It was more of a joke actually but I'm not gonna explain it, just say it out loud

oops


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jan 8, 2018)

hahahahahhaa

i had a feeling it was... a good one too......


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## Sasqui (Jan 8, 2018)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> alternatively, read the thread and find the same link posted in mid November.



I'm only concerned with MY links!


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Jan 16, 2018)

ESA issued an updated prediction of its re-entry date on January 12, giving a current estimated window between March 17 and April 21.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Mar 11, 2018)

The Chinese space station with 'highly toxic' chemicals onboard that is currently hurtling toward earth may crash into lower Michigan, it has been revealed. 
It is believed China's first prototype station, Tiangong-1, will come crashing back to the planet around April 3, experts say.
US research organization Aerospace Corporation revealed that parts of southern Lower Michigan are among the regions that have the highest probability of being hit by falling debris, according to MLive.com.


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## Bones (Mar 11, 2018)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> The Chinese space station with '_highly toxic' chemicals_ onboard that is currently hurtling toward earth may crash into lower Michigan....


Oh great.... Can somebody let Ash know to gas up the saw? 
We're gonna have some chemically fueled zombies rambling around his own backyard when it does.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Mar 12, 2018)

Astronomer Gianluca Masi, who is part of the Virtual Telescope Project, shot this photo of the spacecraft in Rome on March 9.








The station will be visible in certain areas on March 18, 19 and 20.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Mar 23, 2018)

China's out-of-control space station will crash into Earth this coming Easter weekend, according to the European Space Agency.

The agency's Space Debris Office has said Tiangong-1 will hit somewhere across our planet's northern hemisphere between March 30 and April 2.

Previous estimates suggested the rogue station, which is carrying highly toxic chemicals, would enter Earth's orbit on April 3.

According to experts tracking the station, it has the highest chance of crashing along a narrow strip around latitudes of 43 degrees north and south.

This includes a number of highly populated cities including New York, Barcelona, Beijing, Chicago, Istanbul, Rome and Toronto.




Map showing the area between 42.8 degrees North and 42.8 degrees South latitude (in green), over which Tiangong-1 could reenter. Graph at left shows population density. 


SatView


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## Jetster (Mar 23, 2018)

I heard it was near Oregon that it's coming down

http://katu.com/news/local/oregon-in-path-of-chinese-space-station-on-collision-course-with-earth


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Mar 29, 2018)

The European Space Agency (ESA) predict that Tiangong-1 will tumble back to our planet at some point between March 30 and April 2.

When the station, which is carrying highly toxic chemicals, does eventually enter the atmosphere it could unleash a 'series of fireballs' that will be seen by observers.  

Amateur astronomers are now training their telescopes on Tiangong-1 to catch a glimpse of the doomed satellite.

You can join the viewing as of 13:00 BST (8am ET) via a live stream from the Virtual Telescope Project. 




This image of the Chinese Space Station was taken over a two second exposure and from the Virtual Telescope Project live feed. The space station was travelling at 18 degrees a second across the sky 


Daily updates on ESA's website are currently tracking the space stations gradual descent.

It currently sits at an altitude of around 124 miles (200 kilometres).

Due to its gentle descent, Tiangong-1 is now experiencing significant drag as it brushes against the planet's denser outer atmosphere and it is dropping out of orbit by about 2.5 miles a day. 

When Tiangong-1 reaches an altitude of about 43 miles above the surface, it will begin its fiery re-entry.

When it reaches this point, Markus Dolensky, of the International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, told CNN that observers on Earth will potentially see 'a series of fireballs streaking across the sky'.


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## CAPSLOCKSTUCK (Mar 30, 2018)

Tiangong-1, is predicted to reenter Earth's atmosphere at 11:30am BST (6:33am ET) on Easter Sunday.


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## stinger608 (Apr 1, 2018)

CAPSLOCKSTUCK said:


> Tiangong-1, is predicted to reenter Earth's atmosphere at 11:30am BST (6:33am ET) on Easter Sunday.



According to the link you put up: 

http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=37820U

We still have about 5 hours until re-entry.


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## dorsetknob (Apr 1, 2018)

I just checked with the link
and








They Predict it to land here


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## eidairaman1 (Apr 1, 2018)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I'm sure NORAD has about a dozen eyes (satellites/RADARs) on it.  I wouldn't be worried about it until NORAD says it's a problem.



Yup the USAF/USMC/USN won't worry about it unless if its trajectory is into populated areas in the US or allied nations. China should pay for damages this scrap metal causes



dorsetknob said:


> I just checked with the link
> and
> View attachment 99158
> 
> ...



I would Keep Fighters on Alert for it, possible fragging of it if it is not completely burned up.


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## FordGT90Concept (Apr 2, 2018)

Crashed (if anything left of it), in the south Pacific: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ion-burns-up-over-south-pacific-idUSKCN1H81JD


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## windwhirl (Apr 2, 2018)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Crashed (if anything left of it), in the south Pacific: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ion-burns-up-over-south-pacific-idUSKCN1H81JD



Well, at least it didn't hit anyone on the head nor blasted any place to smithereens


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## witkazy (Apr 2, 2018)

We came in pieces ,take us to Your litter(box).


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## xkm1948 (Apr 2, 2018)

Now all countries probably gonna race to pick up the wreckage.


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## R-T-B (Apr 2, 2018)

xkm1948 said:


> Now all countries probably gonna race to pick up the wreckage.



doubtful.  There is far more to learn at point nemo if it were worth learning.


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## Ferrum Master (Apr 2, 2018)

Now our waters are more polluted with rare radioactive and poisonous stuff... 

Tuna fish and COD FTW.


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## xkm1948 (Apr 2, 2018)

R-T-B said:


> doubtful.  There is far more to learn at point nemo if it were worth learning.



State proprietary computer and program. Whichever country get hands on can use it to reverse engineering potential Chinese military communication system.



Ferrum Master said:


> Now our waters are more polluted with rare radioactive and poisonous stuff...
> 
> Tuna fish and COD FTW.



You really don’t wanna know the kind of mutation we have seen in wild caught ocean fish. FYI the damaged Japanese NPP is still leaking radioactive water into pacific ocean.


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## Ferrum Master (Apr 3, 2018)

xkm1948 said:


> You really don’t wanna know the kind of mutation we have seen in wild caught ocean fish. FYI the damaged Japanese NPP is still leaking radioactive water into pacific ocean.



That's the reason I really seldom eat fish at all, if I don't know their origin.


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## kastriot (Apr 3, 2018)

Now this is necro thread RIP


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