# Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19



## lexluthermiester (Mar 11, 2020)

Since this outbreak is affecting the tech industry as a whole, which affects us all here at TPU, it seemed like a good idea to post two of the best tracking maps I have found from HealthMap and Johns Hopkins University.

Johns Hopkins





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
				



This is, so far, the best and most informative map available.

Healthmap


			Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
		


One of the metrics I've noticed about the stats on offer almost everywhere is that alot more people are recovering than dying.

EDIT; EarthDog posted a good link for those stateside,








						Totals for the US
					

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.




					covidtracking.com
				




EDIT2;
R-T-B posted some links that, while not maps, are precautions that are very useful. Added in the root article as well.









						Prevent Getting Sick
					

Masks, vaccines, and more on how to protect yourself against COVID-19.




					www.cdc.gov
				



Root article.









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				



Video from the Surgeon General.









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				



FAQ about face coverings and masks.


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## rtwjunkie (Mar 14, 2020)

The alarming thing is to watch the quick expansion of infection. For instance clicking on Louisiana shows 36 which sounds about right. Nearly all are here in the New Orleans area. Last Friday, the 6th I believe, we had cas number 1. We hit 18 on Thursday. Now 36.  I watched our numbers nearly double every day or two.


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## P4-630 (Mar 14, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Since this outbreak is affecting the tech industry as a whole, which affects us all here at TPU, it seemed like a good idea to post two of the best tracking maps I have found, HealthMap and Johns Hopkins
> 
> 
> Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
> ...



Those maps are not really accurate for my country.


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## Zyll Goliat (Mar 14, 2020)

THX for the chart ,those are confirmed cases in each country realistically numbers of infected people are probably at least 10x higher in all of those countries........


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## Bones (Mar 14, 2020)

Accurate to within 24hrs at least - The first case confirmed here was only yesterday morning and it's showing on the map.


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## Tomgang (Mar 14, 2020)

There are also this one. There is no map, but it is being updated faster and more regular than the Johns Hopkins map. Johns Hopkins map and world o meter is only confirmed cases, the so cald dark numbers means people that has Corona but not being testet is espected to be much higher and in Denmark where i come from is no different. This virus spread so fast, that Danish goverment has given up on tracking all cases and are now only testing people with critical symtoms and has told us all to tread every people as potentially infected. Just this week we got from 35 infected to 827 infected in less a week. Denmark is now in a half lock down and all borders er closed. All this happened in just a week. This virus is not so deadly on it´s own compared to SARS or MERS, but boy this thing can spread fast in just a few days and still kill a lot people because it infect to many so fast.

Good luck to all countries, containing this world wide enemy. We all gonna need it, before we all end up as italy or worse.









						COVID Live Update: 170,691,288 Cases and 3,550,115 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


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## R-T-B (Mar 14, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> One of the metrics I've noticed about the stats on offer almost everywhere is that alot more people are recovering than dying.



Always was expected to be the case.

The risk is to high risk patients, like my father, and I'm deathly terrified of bringing this home to him.


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## the54thvoid (Mar 14, 2020)

Well, has the UK updated yet? Deaths doubled in 24hrs... Still a tiny fraction but over 20.


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## HTC (Mar 14, 2020)

What the stats should cover is the number of COVID-19 related respiratory hospitalizations and their relation to available facilities to receive them per ... say ... 200K people: that would give us an idea of how their respective health systems are fairing through this ordeal.


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## biffzinker (Mar 14, 2020)

Still nothing showing up for Alaska even though there was one confirmed case in the local news.


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## HTC (Mar 14, 2020)

Portugal's current confirmed cases is now 169: up from yesterday's 112.

Still no fatalities, which is the only good news we have regarding COVID-19.


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## FordGT90Concept (Mar 14, 2020)

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
					

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




					www.reuters.com
				



Has a time lapse of infections in SVG format near the top of the page.  They don't provide a way to link directly to it.


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## rtwjunkie (Mar 15, 2020)

This tracker is pretty accurate so far, at least from what I can see. We have 77 confirmed cases but just had our 2nd death this morning, while tracker only shows 1.


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## dirtyferret (Mar 15, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> This tracker is pretty accurate so far, at least from what I can see. We have 77 confirmed cases but just had our 2nd death this morning, while tracker only shows 1.


Only shows one for my state although we are up to 11 but that's based on about 120 tests...


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## rtwjunkie (Mar 15, 2020)

News just updated. We are at 91 cases now.


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 15, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> This tracker is pretty accurate so far, at least from what I can see. We have 77 confirmed cases but just had our 2nd death this morning, while tracker only shows 1.


Keeping it updated is an ongoing process of verifying information before publishing it. As a result data shown can be 12 to 24 hours old, which in my eyes is an acceptable margin.



dirtyferret said:


> Only shows one for my state although we are up to 11 but that's based on about 120 tests...


Alaska?


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## dirtyferret (Mar 15, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Keeping it updated is an ongoing process of verifying information before publishing it. As a result data shown can be 12 to 24 hours old, which in my eyes is an acceptable margin.
> 
> 
> Alaska?


Nutmeg state


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## Lindatje (Mar 15, 2020)

Netherlands has ~6000 cases and 20 death.


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## TheLostSwede (Mar 15, 2020)

Local map of Sweden, if anyone cares.








						Sverige Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Grafer, kartor, diagram och statistik c19 platz.se
					

Se Coronavirus spridning på varje kommun och region i Ålder och Kön. Uppdateras löpande. Kartor, siffor, diagram och grafer över Coronavirus i hela Sverige. Sjukdomsfall Intensivvårdsavdelning Dödsfall Friska Sjukhus c19 platz.se




					platz.se


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## biffzinker (Mar 15, 2020)

Apparently there is four in Fairbanks.

State Department still shows the one confirmed case.


			This page is not currently available


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## Lindatje (Mar 15, 2020)

In the Netherlands everything is closed now for 3 weeks, except the shops.

China: We have a city in lockdown.
Europe: Hold my beer ...


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## dirtyferret (Mar 15, 2020)

The state is now up to 20 cases and three people died in the city the past 24 hours which is only 30 miles from our town


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## Vayra86 (Mar 15, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> In the Netherlands everything is closed now for 3 weeks, except the shops.
> 
> China: We have a city in lockdown.
> Europe: Hold my beer ...



More like: Europe: Drink your beer and gtfo! 


Here on Mars no problems in sight, actually.


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## biffzinker (Mar 16, 2020)

At what point will the US shut down?



> *500 new cases* and *5 new deaths* in *the United States*. Starting immediately and for the next 8 weeks, CDC recommends *canceling all events of 50 or more people* [source] [source]
> New cases include:
> 
> - 6 new cases in *New Hampshire* [source]
> ...


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## rtwjunkie (Mar 16, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> At what point will the US shut down?


I doubt we will. Our people are so stupid, that I walked by our lunch room and it full of people sitting round the tables laughing and eating like it’s business as usual.  They think social distancing is 6 inches, not feet. SMH. Idiots.


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## HTC (Mar 16, 2020)

Use this video for updates:










Couldn't find the number of cases for Portugal anywhere on the news but, using the above video, it's currently @ 331.


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## Zyll Goliat (Mar 16, 2020)

I really feel sorry for Italians....worst day so far just today they lost 349 people......


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## robot zombie (Mar 16, 2020)

I just watch my states department of health page on it. Those of you in the states might try the same. Florida puts out daily updates and I kinda gotta think that's the place to go for the plain numbers.

Ours looks like this. Even has a link to map cases by county.





						Home
					

...




					www.floridahealth.gov
				




We're up nearly double from yesterday.


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## biffzinker (Mar 16, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> I really feel sorry for Italians....worst day so far just today they lost 349 people......


If it ends up out of control in the US I can see the death toll increasing with the amount of elderly population in the US. My step-dad's parents are up there in age, a lot of aunts, and uncles on my Mom's side of the family. My biological grandparents passed away in 2012, and 2017.


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## Zyll Goliat (Mar 16, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> If it ends up out of control in the US I can see the death toll increasing with the amount of elderly population in the US. My step-dad's parents are up there in age, a lot of aunts, and uncles on my Mom's side of the family. My biological grandparents passed away in 2012, and 2017.


Isolation is best they can do atm.,avoid other people as much as you can......also it's not only old people that are in danger anyone with the"weaker"immune system can be really affected with Covid-19


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 17, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> I really feel sorry for Italians....worst day so far just today they lost 349 people......


Agreed. This makes one wonder, why are they getting hit so hard?


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## biffzinker (Mar 17, 2020)

Firefighters returning to the state?


			
				Local News said:
			
		

> A second and third confirmed case of COVID-19 have been reported in Fairbanks according to the Fairbanks Memorial Hospital.
> 
> The State Department of Health and Social Services COVID-19 Case Count, updated daily at 12:30 p.m., does not yet reflect a second confirmed case.
> 
> The state’s first confirmed COVID-19 case was reported by the state on Thursday. State health officials say the patient is a pilot for a private cargo company.











						Two more confirmed case of COVID-19 in Alaska reported in Fairbanks
					

A second and third confirmed case of COVID-19 have been reported in Fairbanks according to the Fairbanks Memorial Hospital.




					www.ktuu.com


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## R0H1T (Mar 17, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> also it's not only old people that are in danger anyone with the"weaker"immune system can be really affected with Covid-19


Is their any information about those with auto immune diseases? This isn't directed at you per se but anyone else wanna chime in?


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## the54thvoid (Mar 17, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> Is their any information about those with auto immune diseases? This isn't directed at you per se but anyone else wanna chime in?



I think there is added risk from that. A 21 year-old Spanish football coach died from coronavirus but when he went to hospital, he discovered he had leukemia.


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## HTC (Mar 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Agreed. This makes one wonder, why are they getting hit so hard?


Perhaps a combination of older population + generally heavy smokers? Perhaps something else?

Dunno


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## phanbuey (Mar 17, 2020)

HTC said:


> Perhaps a combination of older population + generally heavy smokers? Perhaps something else?
> 
> Dunno



Spain is on the same track.  Really odd... 

Maybe something in the diet?


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## HTC (Mar 17, 2020)

phanbuey said:


> Spain is on the same track.  Really odd...
> 
> Maybe something in the diet?



Could be, or a combination of all of it.

Spain currently has roughly 1600 more cases than South Korea but has over 4 times the death toll.

Another parallel we can make is with South Korea VS USA: South Korea has 75% more cases than USA but has 10 less dead people.

Something REALLY contributes to higher death toll but, until we figure it out, some countries will continue to suffer more than others


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## the54thvoid (Mar 17, 2020)

HTC said:


> Could be, or a combination of all of it.
> 
> Spain currently has roughly 1600 more cases than South Korea but has over 4 times the death toll.
> 
> ...



Testing. It's all about the availability of data. SK (I believe) are testing a lot of people. So the mortality rate is more reflective. Some places, where healthcare is part of a private model, are testing less. Other places, UK, have stricter requirements to test, i.e. minimal symptoms-no test.

So, where there is less testing, there are less 'confirmed' cases. Therefore, mortality rate appears lower. Though technically in areas with less testing, mortality may appear higher than it actually is.


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## HTC (Mar 17, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Testing. It's all about the availability of data. SK (I believe) are testing a lot of people. So the mortality rate is more reflective. Some places, where healthcare is part of a private model, are testing less. Other places, UK, have stricter requirements to test, i.e. minimal symptoms-no test.



That's a distinct possibility.

AFAIK, South Korea is the country that has the highest test ratio per 100K inhabitants in the world.

EDIT

If we scale South Korea's death toll to Italy's, then the real number of infected in Italy is over 216K.

It obviously doesn't work that way because overwhelmed hospitals result in higher death toll numbers, but still ...


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## Zyll Goliat (Mar 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Agreed. This makes one wonder, why are they getting hit so hard?


I generally believe it's actually very simple why.....It's a very dense population there with a lot of tourist&residents that walking around + many Italians didn't accept any kind of restriction at the beginning and their government reaction was slow and unfit to cope with this.....and when you have so many patients in critical condition and you do not have enough of respirators....well you guess what happens....


phanbuey said:


> Spain is on the same track.  Really odd...
> 
> Maybe something in the diet?


Nothing to do with the diet i am afraid but not saying that ain't important as anything that can affect your immune system is important...As I said I believe it's a dense places with a lot of tourist from all around the world +both of those countries have many elderly's and in a matter of fact the rest of the Europe ain't much better and yes I am also afraid that Spain is on the same track tho' their reaction was a bit faster which could slow spreading a bit..


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## r.h.p (Mar 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Agreed. This makes one wonder, why are they getting hit so hard?


We have been told in AUS in Italy the testing process for Covid in people has been to slow and not enough test kits ,_ compared  _to S Korea. Even in Aus we are short of All Test kits  , Masks , protective equipment due etc to RELIANCE of CHINA. A company in Victoria has stared ramping up there production of Surgical masks with the help of the Army . Lucky we are an Island otherwise I hate to think of the outcome


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## MIRTAZAPINE (Mar 17, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> The alarming thing is to watch the quick expansion of infection. For instance clicking on Louisiana shows 36 which sounds about right. Nearly all are here in the New Orleans area. Last Friday, the 6th I believe, we had cas number 1. We hit 18 on Thursday. Now 36.  I watched our numbers nearly double every day or two.



That is power of exponential function. Virus is an exponential thing, it is not in the our normal instinctive understand for our linear mind to see it until it too late. It does not take long for a few cases to be in thousand in a matter of weeks if drastic measure like containment, avoiding gathering and prevention of entry of known virus origin sources is done. That is why contact tracing is an important thing. You would see it branch like spider web very quickly.


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## Frick (Mar 17, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Local map of Sweden, if anyone cares.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



For further carers the drop in increasing numbers is likely due to a new policy of only testing people in risk groups.


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 17, 2020)

HTC said:


> Perhaps a combination of older population + generally heavy smokers? Perhaps something else?
> 
> Dunno


This could be possible, perhaps even likely.


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## Khonjel (Mar 17, 2020)

Yay! Let's ditch that stupid thread in the lounge and make this our main covid thread.

I wanna kick each and every one of the decision-makers in our govt. No lockdown, no quarantine, no budget/economic plan. Hate to be classist, but uneducated immigrants who work in europe are coming back and giving a rat's arse about self-isolation. The govt. is lettong them land for "humanitarian" reasons. Ofc the govt's humanity extends to not keeping them isolated. Oh and there’s rumors that tested negative certificates are being sold around too.
I really hope (yet at thr same time not) that many people die here so the govt. is prepared for next epidemic/pandemic. But looking at iran, I think thr govt. will falsify a lot of deaths as other reasons.


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## rtwjunkie (Mar 17, 2020)

Khonjel said:


> Yay! Let's ditch that stupid thread in the lounge and make this our main covid thread.
> 
> I wanna kick each and every one of the decision-makers in our govt. No lockdown, no quarantine, no budget/economic plan. Hate to be classist, but uneducated immigrants who work in europe are coming back and giving a rat's arse about self-isolation. The govt. is lettong them land for "humanitarian" reasons. Ofc the govt's humanity extends to not keeping them isolated. Oh and there’s rumors that tested negative certificates are being sold around too.
> I really hope (yet at thr same time not) that many people die here so the govt. is prepared for next epidemic/pandemic. But looking at iran, I think thr govt. will falsify a lot of deaths as other reasons.


I’m pretty sure you’re going to have to have a nexus to the point of this thread...the tracking map, for this to remain here and not get booted to the lounge as well.  People got off topic with hate and conspiracy theories  in the other one, and that got it moved.


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## the54thvoid (Mar 17, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I’m pretty sure you’re going to have to have a nexus to the point of this thread...the tracking map, for this to remain here and not get booted to the lounge as well.  People got off topic with hate and conspiracy theories  in the other one, and that got it moved.



Yeah, that is so true. I couldn't control the hate! This thread keeps it real with data-sets that are absolutely neutral. But they're worrying. Not so much for health (for most) but the knock-on effects. The movement restrictions are almost unbelievable.


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 17, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> This thread keeps it real with data-sets that are absolutely neutral.


That's what the intention was, keep things objective and focused on the facts of what is actually happening without all the political BS.


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## rtwjunkie (Mar 17, 2020)

This map is completely up to date with Louisiana’s statistics as of last night. We have 136 cases and 3 deaths.  

Pretty much nothing is open here except grocery stores and whatever businesses feel they need to be open. People have been advised to stay at home as much as possible. No bars, casinos or movie theaters are open till April 13, and restaurants can only do take out or delivery.

It’s a changed world.  After it is all over it’s going to be a much altered and poorer world in many ways.


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 17, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Pretty much nothing is open here except grocery stores and whatever businesses feel they need to be open. People have been advised to stay at home as much as possible. No bars, casinos or movie theaters are open till April 13, and restaurants can only do take out or delivery.


Not here. Schools are shut down and things are getting lean, but not as bad as that.


rtwjunkie said:


> It’s a changed world. After it is all over it’s going to be a much altered and poorer world in many ways.


Yup. Kinda sad really.


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## hat (Mar 17, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> It’s a changed world.  After it is all over it’s going to be a much altered and poorer world in many ways.



An interesting perspective. While there will be a temporary economic shock, I expect a full recovery once this thing blows over... maybe with the added bonus that people in general will be more prepared for a bad situation. Or maybe not... things are pretty shit given we're fighting off a flu. Imagine if something _really_ bad happens... I fear it doesn't take much to de-stabilize our fragile society - a lesson I won't soon forget.


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## Zyll Goliat (Mar 17, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> It’s a changed world.  After it is all over it’s going to be a much altered and poorer world in many ways.


In my opinion this is the right time when human race should reconsider and maybe finally overcome the nonsensical Monetary System as it s ATM....


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## Outback Bronze (Mar 17, 2020)

HTC said:


> Use this video for updates:



Is it just me or the China stats seem a bit odd?


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## Jetster (Mar 17, 2020)

I'm so done with this. Please God take me


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## KrazyFox (Mar 17, 2020)

Instead of spending Billions to Trillions of Dollars trying to prevent this easy contracted virus. Let it run its course and we can all go back to our regular routine. It took this COVID-19 coronavirus to make the public more consciences and aware of Personal Hygiene. I would like to say more but it appears it would be offensive. The media is of no help but making matters worse.  People need to work, if ill stay home is common sense. Keep people outside your personal space of 2 to 6 feet away. Ensure you do and enforce others who you are acquainted with to cleanse their hands with soap and hot water, before work, before and after meals and before leaving work. If needed wear gloves.  Our Ancestors have survived worse and managed to continue onward. We will survive only if you use common sense and practice good personal hygiene. Letting the economy fall apart and giving people free money leads to corruption and crime spree. Go to work and provide for your family and other. Take Safety Precautions and don't live in Fear.


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## the54thvoid (Mar 17, 2020)

KrazyFox said:


> Instead of spending Billions to Trillions of Dollars trying to prevent this easy contracted virus. Let it run its course and we can all go back to our regular routine. It took this COVID-19 coronavirus to make the public more consciences and aware of Personal Hygiene. I would like to say more but it appears it would be offensive. The media is of no help but making matters worse.  People need to work, if ill stay home is common sense. Keep people outside your personal space of 2 to 6 feet away. Ensure you do and enforce others who you are acquainted with to cleanse their hands with soap and hot water, before work, before and after meals and before leaving work. If needed wear gloves.  Our Ancestors have survived worse and managed to continue onward. We will survive only if you use common sense and practice good personal hygiene. Letting the economy fall apart and giving people free money leads to corruption and crime spree. Go to work and provide for your family and other. Take Safety Precautions and don't live in Fear.



What people aren't understanding is that it is putting lots of people in hospital. Unchecked, the rate of infection and lack of immunity means an overwhelming level of admissions, placing catastrophic strain on all medical processes. The knock-on from that is no treatment for a multitude of other, otherwise preventable deaths. That's the problem with letting it run its natural course. And no government is willing to face the fallout from such a dire scenario, nor would they wish to be seen as culpable in the deaths of potentially hundreds of thousands of people.

Edit: literally just been informed by text by my manager that our service (gym etc) is shut to the public from tomorrow. Likely for weeks, if not months.


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## KrazyFox (Mar 17, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> What people aren't understanding is that it is putting lots of people in hospital. Unchecked, the rate of infection and lack of immunity means an overwhelming level of admissions, placing catastrophic strain on all medical processes. The knock-on from that is no treatment for a multitude of other, otherwise preventable deaths. That's the problem with letting it run its natural course. And no government is willing to face the fallout from such a dire scenario, nor would they wish to be seen as culpable in the deaths of potentially hundreds of thousands of people.
> 
> Edit: literally just been informed by text by my manager that our service (gym etc) is shut to the public from tomorrow. Likely for weeks, if not months.


Everyone is going to get the coronavirus. We're delaying the spread for medical and health professional reasons or dragging our feet for months. Death is a natural process in life and inevitable. Mother Nature does its best to keep human population under check. The count is what ? world wide 500,000 people infected (a small ratio) out of more than 8 Billion human inhabitants and like 20,000 deaths. I believe the seasonal Flu kills about that many people each year.  The problem with COVID-19 is how quickly it spreads. The fear and shutting down society only going to lead to riots and criminal activity the longer it continues. Oh well, the debate continues. Agree to disagree and each of us entitled to our own beliefs and opinion. I wish everyone the best of health and much happiness in life. Have a terrific day.


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## trog100 (Mar 17, 2020)

case case cluster cluster boom..

the number of reported cases depends on the amount of testing going on.. the boom part is when it hits the exponential curve..

the world as we know it is about change.. there is no going back..

trog


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## HTC (Mar 17, 2020)

Portugal's cases are up to 448: 1 death thus far.

We're building a facility to help with COVID-19's patients: obviously it's nowhere near the size of the ones China built but it will still take longer to build ...

There's a bit of good news, however: an infected pregnant lady gave birth to a boy who DOES NOT have the virus.

EDIT



HTC said:


> Our President was advised to take COVID-19's test because he attended an event with students from a school of which was later confirmed one case with infection: that school is currently closed until further notice and the President's test came up negative.
> 
> The President has isolated himself, to be on the safe side, @ least until the end of next week: he is after all within the age group where the consequences of catching COVID-19 are more severe.



Our President was re-tested today and the result came back negative.


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## E-Bear (Mar 17, 2020)

For social no problems I dont work and I have no friends. I will leave for the forest in case of a lockdown


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## TheLostSwede (Mar 17, 2020)

Europe is closing the borders for 30 days from later this week.








						Coronavirus latest: UK closes schools as Italy reports 475 more deaths
					

There are now more than 200,000 cases of #coronavirus and more than 8,000 people dead in the global pandemic.




					www.euronews.com


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 17, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Europe is closing the borders for 30 days from later this week.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's a shame about Italy, but closing the boarders isn't going to help. It's like closing the barn door after the horse has already bolted. The damage is done. At this point we know it's not the deadliest thing ever, so let it run it's course and work the prevention problem on a local level.


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## phill (Mar 17, 2020)

So far I believe the area I'm in has 3 cases, I'd say that is very good considering the size of the county (well, I guess for UK size not like the US... lol)

I do hope everyone is alright and that we do find something that will help combat the problem..  The Mrs mentioned something on Facebook that an 87 year old lady (I believe this is correct...) had it and then walked out the hospital as she'd recovered and punched the air..  To me, nothing bad about that at all     I hope to hear more like that.....


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## robot zombie (Mar 18, 2020)

I've been wondering... with how this spreads and how long it sticks around... how good of an idea is it really to put all of these heavy restrictions on for 30+ days?

Prevention I get. Total halt on travel and general avoidance of heavily communal areas makes sense... for a little while. And then time goes by and people run out of money. Their jobs cease to exist. Then what? Governments everywhere take huge deficits to bail everyone out so cities and towns don't start collapsing like dominoes? Where is the line? Does anybody know?

I feel like they can try to keep the heavy restrictions going, but ultimately it's not going to stop the virus. Everybody wants to stop the virus. It's not possible. Just as it isn't possible for people to really live under these restrictions indefinitely. Sometimes I wonder if governments just think that it'll go away if we wait long enough. Maybe holding out for the miracle cure. But even if that was true, not much of a world left by then...

I don't think it's going to work. I'm waiting for the major problems and serious unrest to take hold. This whole situation is kind of unprecedented and the consequences for the actions being taken really aren't known well enough. I will be surprised if things don't loosen up before things really settle down. The world, as it currently runs, stops for nobody... because it can't. Is that a foolish way for mankind to operate? I mean... haven't we all known the answer? It seems like we've always been moving too fast. Makes slowing down almost seem worse than what we have to slow down for, you know?

At best, we buy some time for people to move through the hospitals and get everyone on the same page, as well as learn more about the symptoms and how to treat it. Just keep people from propagating it quite as quickly and just focus on bolstering treatment as much as humanly possible. Cuz, I mean... the world can't wait forever. I've said a bunch that I am all for caution and slowing down, but it's getting to the point where people aren't even scared of the virus... they're scared of what is going to happen to their lives. "Self-induced major global recession" sounds like something that can and really, seriously needs to be avoided.

We're at a point now where better risk assessment needs to be done and a better balance will need to be struck, BEFORE signs of major socioeconomic damage start to show. The time to close-up has come and gone for most places. Over here in the US, it makes more sense to slow down quickly - we're just getting started with the spreading and now is the time to minimize. But how long can this really take to saturate for countries already hit hard? How long can they afford to wait? Do we really want to find out the hard way what local and global economies can bear? I see little talk of this on the news. It's almost like nobody wants to think about it right now. I think that's a huge mistake.

Another thing I see that's weird to me... specifically in America. The whole focus is on the number of deaths, which is what arguably matters the least. It's not that people dying doesn't matter, but if we're accounting for all of the undocumented cases, the death ratio is probably a lot lower than it looks. What I wish we'd focus on was the number of hospitalizations and serious cases requiring treatment. It's great that most people are recovering, but all of those people have to move through the healthcare system in short order. Overburdened hospitals have a trickle-out effect on all patients. That's why slowing it down a bit is important. Not leaving everything to rot matters too, though.

The best we've ever had are common sense preventative measures. I.E.: "slow down," not "stop." This isn't something to "win" or get on top of. That's not the name of the game. The question is how to ride it out and still keep moving. It'll be interesting to see how things unfold with the restrictions being proposed here. I think they're shooting for the moon. I don't think we can really afford the hit in the end and I'm sure plans will change by the week. But then, what the hell do I know? Honestly, jack shit at this point. 

I just see a pattern. It starts hitting, we tighten down. "It's not working." So we tighten down more. "IT'S STILL GETTING WORSE!" Now we can't tighten down more, things are falling apart. "WHY ISN'T THIS WORKING?!" What can be done at that point? Could it maybe just be too late? I think it might be. Beyond a pandemic, the last thing anybody wants is a pandemic and a collapsing economy simultaneously. That's not really better.

I'm of the simple wisdom "Do what makes sense." As in, maybe let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater over this pandemic. It's serious, but far from the only major factor in this situation. The deaths might not even be the worst part of it.

I dunno. It doesn't seem right. I get this unsettling sense of tunnel vision.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 18, 2020)

Well it's inevitable, when you see the experts saying flatten the curve what they usually fail to mention is that *it'll likely draw the current restrictions out to at least 2-5x longer*. This situation will indeed last months & as I said in another thread there is no New Deal or World War to get us out of the next *Great Depression*. By the time this is over the 2008 crash may well seem puny in comparison!


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 18, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> Well it's inevitable, when you see the experts saying flatten the curve what they usually fail to mention is that *it'll likely draw the current restrictions out to at least 2-5x longer*. This situation will indeed last months & I said in another thread there is no New Deal or World War to get us out of the next *Great Depression*. By the time this is over 2008 may well seem puny in comparison.


To me, it's like "Good luck!" At some point people are going to stop caring. People aren't going to watch things crumble for months. The unrest would be so real. I really hope it doesn't come to that. Things can be much worse than this virus... and that admittedly is very bad! It really bothers me that almost no consideration is given to the future. It's all in the now.

One of my first observations, back when this all surfaced was "Welp, we've already fucked it all up, haven't we?"

Next to the death counter, maybe we should have a "jobs" counter. One goes up, the other goes down. Which one wins? Can we even win?


----------



## MIRTAZAPINE (Mar 18, 2020)

Here is an info-graphic of contact tracing for all Covid 19 infection people in my place here in Singapore. Quite an impressive feat of police work here.









						COVID-19 cases in Singapore
					

From imported cases and clusters in churches, to the Jurong SAFRA cluster, here's how the novel coronavirus cases in Singapore are linked.



					infographics.channelnewsasia.com


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## rtwjunkie (Mar 18, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Prevention I get. Total halt on travel and general avoidance of heavily communal areas makes sense... for a little while. And then time goes by and people run out of money. Their jobs cease to exist. Then what? Governments everywhere take huge deficits to bail everyone out so cities and towns don't start collapsing like dominoes? Where is the line? Does anybody know?


This is why I said when it’s over, every person and nation will be profoundly changed and poorer.

The numbers in Louisiana are racing on. We went from 136 cases yesterday to 196 cases today. Also 4 deaths up from 3 yesterday.  136 of today’s cases are here in the New Orleans area. It’s pretty much ground zero in the state.



robot zombie said:


> The deaths might not even be the worst part of it.


I dunno, it’s the worst part for me if I pass it on to my wife.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 18, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> The numbers in Louisiana are racing on. We went from 136 cases yesterday to 196 cases today. Also 4 deaths up from 3 yesterday. 136 of today’s cases are here in the New Orleans area. It’s pretty much ground zero in the state.


This is why people are panicking. They see these numbers and have no context. Throw in FLU metrics and things will get real.


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## rtwjunkie (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> This is why people are panicking. They see these numbers and have no context. Throw in FLU metrics and things will get real.


Flu is also deadly for my wife, but the number of people innoculated as well as her annual immunization as well as the pneumonia immunization makes the flu season much more survivable for her. Perhaps once a vaccine is available for COVID-19 we will view it as casually as we do the flu.


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 18, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Flu is also deadly for my wife, but the number of people innoculated as well as her annual immunization as well as the pneumonia immunization makes the flue season much more survivable for her. Perhaps once a vaccine is available for COVID-19 we will view it as casually as we do the flu.


The point was that COVID19 is only slightly more dangerous than the flu and the mortality rates are similar. People/companies/governments are panicking over want is effectively a slightly more serious version of a virus that already exists.


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## R0H1T (Mar 18, 2020)

The fatality rate is at least 10x higher, even if they're preliminary estimates, but more importantly it's now approaching R0 exceeding 3 which means that it's likely more than 2x as contagious as the flu. So no this is clearly so much worse, at least till the time we get a cure for it.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 18, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> The fatality rate is at least 10x higher, even if they're preliminary estimates, but more importantly it's now approaching R0 exceeding 3 which means that it's likely more than 2x as contagious as the flu. So no this is clearly so much worse, at least till the time we get a cure for it.


Please review;








						Burden of Influenza
					

Learn about how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S.




					www.cdc.gov
				



Based on the percentages, you are incorrect. COVID19 is only slightly more lethal than the FLU. In fact more people have died from the flu in 2018 than all of the COVID19 cases so far by a factor of 10+.

You were saying?


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 18, 2020)

You do realize that nCoV also has the knock on effect of *overwhelming the healthcare system*, besides leading to secondary diseases like pneumonia? Now "social distancing" may have some positive effect in slowing it down, but as others have opined the domino it'll have on the real economy is equally if not way more scary. In that sense I'd rather overstate the possible worst case scenario & *be safe than sorry*. As of now, *with the rate it's spreading*, we'll easily have *100+ million infected before the end of the  year*, provided enough people are getting tested & of course well above a million deaths worldwide!


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## Lindatje (Mar 18, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> The fatality rate is at least 10x higher, even if they're preliminary estimates, but more importantly it's now approaching R0 exceeding 3 which means that it's likely more than 2x as contagious as the flu. So no this is clearly so much worse, at least till the time we get a cure for it.


They don't know that yet. Here in my country they have 1700+ cases tested and 42 killed. that is 2.5% which is much more than the "normal" flu. Only there are so many more people who have not been tested because of mild symptoms, the estimate here is around 12,000+ and then you suddenly come to 0.3% which is comparable to the flu. In many countries are not fully tested and only the worst cases are tested.
Don't get me wrong, this is a dangerous virus that must be stopped, especially considering the conditions in hospitals.


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 18, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> You do realize that nCoV also has the knock on effect of *overwhelming the healthcare system*, besides leading to secondary diseases like pneumonia?


Flu does the same thing. Your point?

Hell, this year alone FLU is more deadly;








						Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates
					

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.




					www.cdc.gov
				



Keep in mind, these numbers and the numbers above are ONLY for the US. Let that sink in.


Lindatje said:


> They don't know that yet. Here in my country they have 1700+ cases tested and 42 killed. that is 2.5% which is much more than the "normal" flu. Only there are so many more people who have not been tested because of mild symptoms, the estimate here is around 12,000+ and then you suddenly come to 0.3% which is comparable to the flu.


Exactly. And everywhere in the world is following the same methodology. Those with mild symptoms will recover as their immune system can adapt and handle the virus.

Something else that should be noted, observation is showing that people with COVID19 are not staying contagious. Once their immune system adapts, they are non-contagious 24 to 36 hours later.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 18, 2020)

I'm giving you a conservative estimate, the 100 million doesn't even come close to the absolute worst case scenario especially if this thing mutates quickly.* You can easily calculate how bad it can get when the number of cases are doubling 2-5 days in different places around the world*.

As for the *Flu*, you do realize *it's treatable* in most cases don't you? Why are you drawing a false equivalence with nCoV 


lexluthermiester said:


> Exactly. *And everywhere in the world is following the same methodology*. Those with mild symptoms will recover as their immune system can adapt and handle the virus.
> 
> Something else that should be noted, observation is showing that people with COVID19 are not staying contagious. *Once their immune system adapts, they are non-contagious 24 to 36 hours later.*


I've already accounted for the vast under-reporting, otherwise if you see only confirmed cases the mortality rate is* at least 20x higher than influenza*.








						COVID Live Update: 170,691,288 Cases and 3,550,115 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				



There's no solid evidence as yet that once infected you'll not get the disease a second time, there's nothing confirming this theory.


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 18, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> I'm giving you a conservative estimate


Thanks for the input. I think we should all look at the real world numbers instead of taking the word of some random internet user.


R0H1T said:


> the 100 million doesn't even come close to the absolute worst case scenario especially if this thing mutates quickly.


There is no evidence that there has been any mutation at all, or indications that such is likely.


R0H1T said:


> *You can easily calculate how bad it can get when the number of cases are doubling 2-5 days in different places around the world*.


Yes and then when we compare that data to worldwide FLU data and the bigger picture comes clearly into focus.


R0H1T said:


> Why are you drawing a false equivalence with nCoV


I'm not the one failing to see what is obvious. 



R0H1T said:


> I've already accounted for the vast under-reporting, otherwise if you see only confirmed cases the mortality rate is* at least 20x higher than influenza*.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That is not a credible source of data. Please cite a source of data that has credibility.


R0H1T said:


> There's no solid evidence as yet that once infected you'll not get the disease a second time, there's nothing confirming this theory.


The same can be same of the FLU. *You seem to be trolling. Please stop.*

The whole point of this thread and the information provided within is to help people understand the reality of this "threat". The raw numbers and real world data are all that is needed to understand.


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## R0H1T (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I think we should all look at the real world numbers instead of taking the word of some random internet user.


The numbers are right there in front of you, no need to take the word of any stranger.


lexluthermiester said:


> There is no evidence that there has been any mutation at all, or indications that such is likely.


It doesn't need a mutation to infect over 100 million, it's doing a swell job as it is. Again the R0 is about 3, which as experts have said is roughly 2x as contagious as influenza!


lexluthermiester said:


> Yes and then when we compare that data to worldwide FLU data and the bigger picture comes clearly into focus.


Didn't realize the FLU could infect up to *70%* of the world population in a relatively short span. Yes that's what the numbers Canada & Germany have put up for their  (nationwide) infections, you sure they aren't cuckoo too?


lexluthermiester said:


> I'm not the one failing to see *what is obvious*.


Which is? I'm dying to know what you're implying 


lexluthermiester said:


> That is not a credible source of data. Please cite a source of data that has credibility.


Does *MS* sound credible to you? No then I guess you'll have to find a more "credible source" yourself 








						Microsoft Bing COVID-19 Tracker
					

Track confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the globe with Bing




					www.bing.com
				





lexluthermiester said:


> The same can be same of the FLU. You seem to be trolling. Please stop.


Oh so you conveniently skipped over the part that *Flu can be treated* as of now, how naive of me to think you were being objective!


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## 1freedude (Mar 18, 2020)

Jetster said:


> I'm so done with this. Please God take me


Sorry brother, stick with it.  I'm in Redmond if you wanna stop by for a Red Chair, or a chat.
Speaking of Redmond, we are a major spoke off of Sea-Tac, PDX, and SFO.  LAX is there too, but not nearly as much as the others mentioned.  Right now, we have about 10% of the total infections for Oregon, with 6.

I am really suprised our totals are not higher.  Maybe because of "light symptoms," folks aren't going to the hospital to get checked out.  In reality, that is good, because the only real problem we (humanity) are going to face is a shortage of hospital facilities capable of keeping people alive long enough to get over it.  That brings me to the next point...if we keep up a disciplined social distancing practice, we will be able let the really sick folks trickle in over a few months, instead of blasting the system in a few weeks.

I wish I could stop by TPU a bit more often.  You guys were my first online community.  Thanks for being here

And please, if you need to call for help, because of things outside of your control, someone will be there.  You don't have to be sick to need help.


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## the54thvoid (Mar 18, 2020)

Going to put this here and extract a few quotes. This source is the European Centre for Disease Control.









						Questions and answers on COVID-19
					

Find more information on questions related to COVID-19 on infection, symptoms, guidelines, the situation, in the EU, vaccines, travel, and children.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu
				





Take aways:

1 - it's not the flu.



> While the viruses that cause both COVID-19 and seasonal influenza are transmitted from person-to-person and may cause similar symptoms, the two viruses are very different and do not behave in the same way. ECDC estimates that between 15 000 and 75 000 people die prematurely due to causes associated with seasonal influenza each year in the EU, the UK, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. This is approximately 1 in every 1 000 people who are infected. By comparison, the current estimated mortality rate for COVID-19 is 20-30 per 1 000 people.



2 - it has a higher mortality rate.



> Preliminary findings indicate that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 20-30 per thousand people diagnosed. This is significantly less than the 2003 SARS outbreak. However, it is much higher than the mortality rate for seasonal influenza.



3 - As humans have no immunity built up for it, it has the potential to infect every human on the planet.


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## Ahhzz (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> ....
> 
> Something else that should be noted, observation is showing that people with COVID19 are not staying contagious. Once their immune system adapts, they are non-contagious 24 to 36 hours later.


Just a quick note here, Lex: There's already been more than one confirmed cases of re-infection. 



R0H1T said:


> ...
> Oh so you conveniently skipped over the part that *Flu can be treated* as of now, how naive of me to think you were being objective!



The treatment for COVID19 is basically the same as for the flu, which is rest, plenty of fluids and isolation from others. Just like the flu, serious cases can result in serious complications, but it appears that the complications for the ones more vulnerable to respiratory illnesses can be much more severe. 

There's a Reddit AMA with 4 Swiss scientists here that had tons of information. I recommend those serious about their concerns (or lack thereof) check out the AMA. thanks, and keep it civil please.


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## r.h.p (Mar 18, 2020)

MIRTAZAPINE said:


> Here is an info-graphic of contact tracing for all Covid 19 infection people in my place here in Singapore. Quite an impressive feat of police work here.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



geezuz that is a impressive stats sheet


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 18, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> 1 - it's not the flu.


I never said it was. I'm using the flu as an example because of how similar the symptoms are.


the54thvoid said:


> 2 - it has a higher mortality rate.


Evidence? So far the CONFIRMED numbers on offer do not fully support that statement.


the54thvoid said:


> 3 - As humans have no immunity built up for it, it has the potential to infect every human on the planet.


And how is that any different from new strains of the common cold or flu? The human immune system has evolved to be very adaptable. Greatly more people are recovering than dying.


Ahhzz said:


> Just a quick note here, Lex: There's already been more than one confirmed cases of re-infection.


Ok. I never said that wasn't possible, didn't even imply it. In fact I said...


lexluthermiester said:


> The same can be same of the FLU.


...because everyone has had or will have the flu more than once. So not only are secondary cases of COVID19 very possible, such is entirely likely. That doesn't make it anymore or less serious than a cold or the flu.

My point is that all of the panic, over-reactions and doomsaying is very much-ado-about-nothing. Something new has popped up. It happens, it's always happened and it's always going to happen. The big difference between now and decades/centuries past is simple; Medical knowledge and technology. The social panic and the unrest being displayed by supposedly civilized people is unwarranted. Factual information and reasonable perspective are all that is needed to realize that this too shall pass as it always has and always will.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Evidence? So far the CONFIRMED numbers on offer do not fully support that statement.


Well...We can not be sure just yet but when I saw how many of those basketball players have Covid-19 without any symptoms it does make you wonder what is actual number of infected people I was always under impression that is probably around 10x more then what we know and even with those numbers I believe that death rate was still way higher than common flu but there is a possibility that the number of "infected"people is even much higher then those predictions.....


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I never said it was. I'm using the flu as an example because of how similar the symptoms are.
> 
> Evidence? So far the CONFIRMED numbers on offer do not fully support that statement.
> 
> ...



I hear you, I do.

But UK data analysis based on Italian rates of transmission and mortality put the UK death rate at 250,000 by August 2020. That's why we moved to suppression. But yes, absolutely, people panicking and buying massive stockpiles is a human disgrace. I think we're both agreeing but speaking a slightly different dialect. Ye ken?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 18, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> Well...We can not be sure just yet but when I saw how many of those basketball players have Covid-19 without any symptoms it does make you wonder what is actual number of infected people I was always under impression that is probably around 10x more then what we know and even with those numbers I believe that death rate was higher than common flu but there is a possibility that the number of "infected"people is even much higher then those predictions.....


Exactly. The real numbers are not known because the instances of people who either have it and are unaware because the symptoms are so mild, or because the symptoms are mild enough that they don't feel the need to report it, perhaps because they believe they have something else.

The reality is this; Of the known numbers, the morality rate is somewhat higher than the flu. Of the estimated numbers, the mortality rate is on par with the flu.

So why all the nonsense? People, companies and governments are pressing the panic button over something that is little more serious than that of the common flu.


the54thvoid said:


> But UK data analysis based on Italian rates of transmission and mortality put the UK death rate at 250,000 by August 2020.


I'm not buying that. Italy is an outlier, an exception rather than the rule. Most of the rest of the world(including the British commonwealth) is not getting hit that hard. This suggests strongly that there is something unique about that region/populous that make them more vulnerable. The rest of the world's populous however is reacting medically on a level that would be expected of a seasonal illness, such as the aforementioned flu.


the54thvoid said:


> That's why we moved to suppression.


But that's my point, isolation is not the solution. The virus is already out there(the horse has bolted and been gone for a long while). The best course of action is prevention on a local level. Teaching people proper preventive personal hygine, the use of face masks and gloves, environmental sanitation and so on. These are the actions that will have the best effect for the general populous.


the54thvoid said:


> But yes, absolutely, people panicking and buying massive stockpiles is a human disgrace. I think we're both agreeing but speaking a slightly different dialect. Ye ken?


Yes, but social, economic and education event cancellations are an equally disgusting disgrace as well. It's sheer stupidity and ignorance. The virus is already out there. What are we going to do, cancel the whole damn planet? Yes, let's trash our entire civilization and see how safe everyone is afterwards...

EDIT; Rant over. Frustration vented...


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Exactly. The real numbers are not known because the instances of people who either have it and are unaware because the symptoms are so mild, or because the symptoms are mild enough that they don't feel the need to report it, perhaps because they believe they have something else.
> 
> The reality is this; Of the known numbers, the morality rate is somewhat higher than the flu. Of the estimated numbers, the mortality rate is on par with the flu.
> 
> So why all the nonsense? People, companies and governments are pressing the panic button over something that is little more serious than that of the common flu.


As always it could be some agenda behind all of this....As we saw in many countries governments bring easily some laws that in normal/regular conditions is impossible to implement also things that worry's me the most is how many people are going to lose their jobs because of this and how are they going to pay their taxes/credits/bills/food,and there are migrants in EU that now barely anyone talk about and their numbers still rising each day.....Well we can only just speculate about all of this atm. and I am afraid that this is not the right topic for it.....


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> And how is that any different from new strains of the common cold or flu?


How is it different? We are able to immunize vast swaths of the public against influenza. And despite the fact that the strain immunized for mutates as it travels the globe, the immunizations are able to at least weaken any infection most people get because the mutations still share many structural similarities with the immunized-for strain.  This is why anti-viral drugs like Tami-flu have great success if administered early.  We are also able to have high risk people get a pneumonia vaccine, which lessens their risk as well.

With COVID-19 there is no vaccine, so there is no way to even partially help people’s bodies prepare for it.  And it does not actually cause pneumonia in people’s lungs like influenza does. It actually attacks the lung lining directly in a manner like shoving ground glass into the lungs, literally tearing the tissue.  With no defense, the only deterrent to its spread is to be distant from each other.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> So why all the nonsense? People, companies and governments are pressing the panic button over something that is little more serious than that of the common flu.
> 
> I'm not buying that. Italy is an outlier, an exception rather than the rule.



The problem with your reasoning is that you are switching cause and effect around happily and then draw your own conclusions.

Italy is an exceptional case. The _reasons for that_ are evident though: they underestimated and _did not respond in time_. This 'disgrace' you speak of which is a partial shutdown of public and social life, and it is partial, a whole lot of things are still working as planned, is the _reason_ many other countries are *not* mimicking Italy.

So Italy being the exception only underlines the need for what is happening now around the globe. The fact that all these governments do this, despite differences in ideology or type of government/state, should tell you enough. This is real, and the effects of dampening the infection rate as much as possible are real too. Here in Netherlands we have an extremely transparent government when it comes to this crisis, every decision is explained in how it was weighed and people give interviews on it daily; the info we get, I have no reason to believe is false or overly panicky. It is very fact based and I am very pleased to see this, honestly..

Also another issue and hidden corpse is that less developed countries have a grossly inaccurate count, and you can rest assured there is a serious number of deaths and infected over there that is completely invisible to us, and might remain so. Immigrants were mentioned, but that's just a tiny tip of the iceberg.


----------



## Khonjel (Mar 18, 2020)

Supposedly 14 infected and 1 death in the country. Don't believe the numbers for a moment.
Loads of workers coming back from abroad and giving the middle finger to self-quarantine. People near/close to them from around the country are posting that they are scared of their in facebook.

Then there was another case where people actually gathered in a hospital suspected of having a covid-19 patient, to sate their curiosity. Fucking lol.

Oh and there's this: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-...-testing-negative-for-COVID-19/7711584456914/

Oh and here's this too: https://philnews.ph/2020/03/18/covid-19-cases-100000-in-3-months-12-days-to-for-another-100000/

Since you don’t think it’s not that deadly you should sign up for a ncov vaccine trial if anyone in your country is offering. Free monies. Make the most of the downturn in the economy. @lexluthermiester


----------



## hat (Mar 18, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> Well...We can not be sure just yet but when I saw how many of those basketball players have Covid-19 without any symptoms it does make you wonder what is actual number of infected people I was always under impression that is probably around 10x more then what we know and even with those numbers I believe that death rate was still way higher than common flu but there is a possibility that the number of "infected"people is even much higher then those predictions.....





lexluthermiester said:


> Exactly. The real numbers are not known because the instances of people who either have it and are unaware because the symptoms are so mild, or because the symptoms are mild enough that they don't feel the need to report it, perhaps because they believe they have something else.
> 
> The reality is this; Of the known numbers, the morality rate is somewhat higher than the flu. Of the estimated numbers, the mortality rate is on par with the flu.
> 
> ...





Zyll Goliath said:


> As always it could be some agenda behind all of this....As we saw in many countries governments bring easily some laws that in normal/regular conditions is impossible to implement also things that worry's me the most is how many people are going to lose their jobs because of this and how are they going to pay their taxes/credits/bills/food,and there are migrants in EU that now barely anyone talk about and their numbers still rising each day.....Well we can only just speculate about all of this atm. and I am afraid that this is not the right topic for it.....



A few points...

Indeed, the real numbers are going to be far above and beyond what's actually reported. I've been sick with what I ascribe to be a mild form of even the common cold and still went to work. My energy level was slightly reduced, but I got through just fine. It's interesting that the symptoms can range anywhere from barely anything at all to death... I wouldn't expect it to vary so wildly.

Isolation won't make the virus go away. The point, again, is to attempt to curb the number of infected individuals who are going to need health care if/whenthey catch it so they can get the care they need. The system can't deal with entire populations infected at once.

The economic fallout is as worrisome as the virus itself, perhaps moreso... but it's not really something that can be avoided. The governments of the world have decided that it's better to deal with the consequences of attempting to slow this thing down than it is to just do business as usual while the virus does what it does. I've heard of our government here supposedly helping people out, but I can't confirm it personally. I heard something on the radio about tax breaks or even checks here in the US, but I don't remember the limited details I heard of at the time, or who it even applies to...


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 18, 2020)

Reuters finally built a full page for the SVG time lapse along with lots of other metrics tracking how it is unfolding:








						Tracking the spread of the novel coronavirus
					

Reuters maps all places where COVID-19 cases have been confirmed.




					graphics.reuters.com
				



This link will likely be relevant until it passes so if you really want to track it, bookmark/favorite it.


Global fatality rate is 4.26%.


----------



## xkm1948 (Mar 18, 2020)

@the54thvoid 

This is turning into the other CoVID thread already simply because it shows up in the browsed thread. The content is 100% off top topic now. Can we get this merged with the other CoVID19 thread?


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 18, 2020)

xkm1948 said:


> @the54thvoid
> 
> This is turning into the other CoVID thread already simply because it shows up in the browsed thread. The content is 100% off top topic now. Can we get this merged with the other CoVID19 thread?



I'm going to give this thread a chance. If I submit to defeat again, I may as well hand in my hall pass. 

However, I have free-reign in this world (Sci & Tech is my mod sub-forum) so all folks take note - Stay dead centre on topic and keep opinions based on fact from reputable sources. Of note, if the publication isn't from this century, it's likely not relevant. 

I suggest everyone uses this site as an excellent starting point:






						Home | NIH COVID-19 Research
					






					www.nih.gov
				




I've used it for years as a reference source to smack peopole about with good, hard evidence-based science.


----------



## hat (Mar 18, 2020)

xkm1948 said:


> @the54thvoid
> 
> This is turning into the other CoVID thread already simply because it shows up in the browsed thread. The content is 100% off top topic now. Can we get this merged with the other CoVID19 thread?


FWIW, I appreciate your insight on the topic. While I don't understand all the genome jargon, the bits and pieces I do catch are of interest to me. I'm sure many of us feel the same.


----------



## HTC (Mar 18, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> *Flu does the same thing. Your point?*
> 
> Hell, this year alone FLU is more deadly;
> 
> ...


You're focusing on the death toll: it's the forced hospitalization with assisted breathing you should be focusing on.

Have you ever heard of seasonal flu overwhelming hospitals to the extent they have in Italy, actually *forcing doctors to CHOOSE who to give the assisted breathing to*, thus effectively condemning to death those that are denied? That's why the death toll in Italy is so high.


----------



## hat (Mar 18, 2020)

HTC said:


> Have you ever heard of seasonal flu overwhelming hospitals to the extent they have in Italy, actually *forcing doctors to CHOOSE who to give the assisted breathing to*, thus effectively condemning to death those that are denied? That's why the death toll in Italy is so high.



No, but we have vaccines, and some level of natural immunity to the seasonal flu. I guess it's like the difference between getting shot with and without a bulletproof vest... bit of an odd analogy... but it seems to reflect the situation we're in.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 18, 2020)

HTC said:


> Have you ever heard of seasonal flu overwhelming hospitals to the extent they have in Italy, actually *forcing doctors to CHOOSE who to give the assisted breathing to*, thus effectively condemning to death those that are denied? That's why the death toll in Italy is so high.


And why the rest of the world is taking extreme measures.  There's not enough ventilators.

Italy has an almost 10% mortality rate.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 18, 2020)

Two weeks of isolation in Italy and they've still recorded their largest jump in fatalities. Over 400 (3000 total). Question is: on the bell curve, is this near the peak? If not... oh dear.


----------



## HTC (Mar 18, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Two weeks of isolation in Italy and they've still recorded their largest jump in fatalities. Over 400 (3000 total). Question is: on the bell curve, is this near the peak? If not... oh dear.



The incubation period from before the lockdown is almost over: i expect the number of NEW reported cases to go down significantly @ that time BUT ONLY @ that time. Until then, unfortunately, things will get worse 

Here in Portugal, the President is expected make an announcement to the country @ 20:00 GMT declaring state of emergency, thus giving the government additional powers. The scope of the measures is not yet known but i expect it to be quite restrictive and severe.

Among the measures, it's being considered for all loans to be waived during a certain period and either being payed after a few months or being scrapped entirely now, being postponed to after the end of the loans: this focuses primarily in house loans, in an attempt to give the families liquidity with which to ride out this virus.

We've had a 2nd fatality: a 73 year old man that spent a vacation in Italy in February, and 2 of his sons are also infected. The number of infected has risen to 642.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 18, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Two weeks of isolation in Italy and they've still recorded their largest jump in fatalities. Over 400 (3000 total). Question is: on the bell curve, is this near the peak? If not... oh dear.


Italy...isn't getting better...yet...




South Korea looks like they got a handle on it.


----------



## HTC (Mar 18, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Italy...isn't getting better...yet...
> View attachment 148455
> *South Korea looks like they got a handle on it.*


It's seems they got over 90 new cases today so they may be getting hit with a 2nd wave: a bit too early to tell.

Still, South Korea is the only nation that HAD a big spread but FLATTENED the curve, as indicated in the picture you just posted.

What did they do differently? just 3 things:

1 - testing
2 - testing
3 - testing

That about sums it up.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 18, 2020)

HTC said:


> What did they do differently? just 3 things:
> 
> 1 - testing
> 2 - testing
> ...


I'm not sure what affect testing, testing & more testing would have on the number of (new) cases ~ which are now seemingly coming under control. It has to do more with their *healthcare system*. Their mortality rate is about 1% vs 4% for China & 10% for Italy, the second wave thing would be crucial though & how quickly nCoV spreads in the summers.


----------



## Lindatje (Mar 18, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Italy has an almost 10% mortality rate.


Sorry but that's not true. There are many more infected people in Italy who are not tested, this large group has no to mild symptoms. Here in my country we have tested 2000+ cases, but it is estimated to be over 12,000. This is because friends or family members of infected (tested) persons are no longer tested. However, these persons must remain at home until their symptoms disappear for 24 hours. The only country that has conducted hundreds of thousands of tests is Korea. So the mortality rate is  much lower. Don’t het me wrong, it’s a dangerous virus.


----------



## blobster21 (Mar 18, 2020)

i'll be at home for the next 30 days, according with my employer and governement.

There's this derogatory form to print and fill whenever you have to go outside, either for purchasing first necessity goods, going to work when your employer ask you to, etc.....

Anyone caught without this form will  incurr a €135 fine !


----------



## HTC (Mar 18, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> *I'm not sure what affect testing, testing & more testing would have on the number of (new) cases ~ which are now seemingly coming under control.* It has to do more with their *healthcare system*. Their mortality rate is about 1% vs 4% for China & 10% for Italy, the second wave thing would be crucial though & how quickly nCoV spreads in the summers.



By detecting infections EVEN BEFORE SYMPTOMS, they isolate those individuals early, thus slowing down the transmission. This helps prevent overwhelming the hospitals, thus keeping the death toll lower.

Obviously they didn't do ONLY testing but mass testing IS the 1st line of defense.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 18, 2020)

HTC said:


> The incubation period from before the lockdown is almost over: i expect the number of NEW reported cases to go down significantly @ that time BUT ONLY @ that time. Until then, unfortunately, things will get worse
> 
> Here in Portugal, the President is expected make an announcement to the country @ 20:00 GMT declaring state of emergency, thus giving the government additional powers. The scope of the measures is not yet known but i expect it to be quite restrictive and severe.
> 
> ...


From last night here in Serbia we have state of emergency with army on the street/borders and near hospitals and also we have so called "police hour"from 20:00-05:00 when no one is allowed to be outside anymore IF does not have permission for it,people older then 65 MUST stay in their home every day where if needed they will receive any necessary help or supplies of food&medicine.....and BTW so far as we know we have"only" 89 infected/no casualties.....


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 18, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> Sorry but that's not true. There are many more infected people in Italy who are not tested, this large group has no to mild symptoms. Here in my country we have tested 2000+ cases, but it is estimated to be over 12,000. This is because friends or family members of infected (tested) persons are no longer tested. However, these persons must remain at home until their symptoms disappear for 24 hours. The only country that has conducted hundreds of thousands of tests is Korea. So the mortality rate is  much lower. Don’t het me wrong, it’s a dangerous virus.











						Tracking the spread of the novel coronavirus
					

Reuters maps all places where COVID-19 cases have been confirmed.




					graphics.reuters.com
				






Italy: 9.3%



HTC said:


> By detecting infections EVEN BEFORE SYMPTOMS, they isolate those individuals early, thus slowing down the transmission. This helps prevent overwhelming the hospitals, thus keeping the death toll lower.
> 
> Obviously they didn't do ONLY testing but mass testing IS the 1st line of defense.


Ideally, we would test everyone in a day and quarantine them accordingly.  That's really the only way to stop a virus like this from propagating.

The reason why this is getting out of hand is because the number of tests that can be performed per day is extremely limited (like hundreds for a whole state).  When you can't separate the haves from the have nots, the only option is mass self quarentine which is what everyone is increasingly doing.


----------



## Lindatje (Mar 18, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Italy: 9.3%


But there are far more cases then 31.506....


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 18, 2020)

Conjecture.  What we know is what we know.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 18, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> But there are far more cases then 31.506....



Guessing isn't scientific...


----------



## HTC (Mar 18, 2020)

The Portuguese President has just formalized Emergency State in Portugal, after approval from Portuguese Parliament.

We will not have a quarantine like Italy, @ least for now, but the government now has more powers to implement measures that it didn't have before, such as strike suspensions or forcing supermarkets to remain open, even if the owners want to close them.

This Emergency State will have a duration of 15 days, as per the Constitution, but it can be extended @ that time if the need arises. More specific measures will be known tomorrow.

EDIT

I thought of a few things that, the way i see it, would be beneficial to all:

- lock all prices of goods to their February values: vendors would be allowed to lower them with promotions but NOT raise them, for as long is this crisis lasts
- now that sports are in a virtual stand still, try and coordinate with the various NHS so that the sports entities open their medical facilities to the general public for the "smaller things", thus enabling the hospitals to offload some of their patients in order to focus more on this crisis
- recall retired health officials that are from the diagnostic area of expertise to help with the diagnostic part of COVID-19 testing: since these are older people, have then do day shifts while those that are ALREADY in such jobs do night shifts

It's all i can think right now.


----------



## hat (Mar 19, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Guessing isn't scientific...


It's also not very scientific to look at a number and say "well, that's the data we got, roll with it" when you know damn well the actual number of infected is way higher than that number... you just don't know what it is.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 19, 2020)

HTC said:


> You're focusing on the death toll: it's the forced hospitalization with assisted breathing you should be focusing on.
> 
> Have you ever heard of seasonal flu overwhelming hospitals to the extent they have in Italy, actually *forcing doctors to CHOOSE who to give the assisted breathing to*, thus effectively condemning to death those that are denied? That's why the death toll in Italy is so high.





the54thvoid said:


> Two weeks of isolation in Italy and they've still recorded their largest jump in fatalities. Over 400 (3000 total). Question is: on the bell curve, is this near the peak? If not... oh dear.


After discussions here and in another thread I did some more research today and I still conclude that Italy, Spain and Iran have something about their regions that is making them more vulnerable to the virus than other regions, even accounting for the unpreparedness. Whatever it is, it's more than just a medical system being unprepared.



hat said:


> It's also not very scientific to look at a number and say "well, that's the data we got, roll with it" when you know damn well the actual number of infected is way higher than that number... you just don't know what it is.


However, we can not act on assumed information. We have to act on confirmed and verified information. That is the scientific method and the methodology with which we must fall back on.


----------



## hat (Mar 19, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> However, we can not act on assumed information. We have to act on confirmed and verified information. That is the scientific method and the methodology with which we must fall back on.


That's... a bit... uh? We *know* there are more cases than what have been confirmed by testing. We just don't know how many. To ignore this fact just because the cases haven't confirmed would be, well... not good... Ever seen The Boondocks? The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. What we have here is a known unknown.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 19, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> After discussions here and in another thread I did some more research today and I still conclude that Italy, Spain and Iran have something about their regions that is making them more vulnerable to the virus than other regions, even accounting for the unpreparedness. Whatever it is, it's more than just a medical system being unprepared.


I'm thinking heat, probably a favorable temperature range, because these regions are generally the hottest among the most affected countries. Of course it's not Summer yet so we'll have to see how this develops over the hottest season where temps will exceed 40C in many parts of the world.


the54thvoid said:


> Guessing isn't scientific...


Yes & there's reasons why there aren't too many tests being done, part of it is the unavailability for such a large number of people worldwide but the other major part is to avoid panic & complete meltdown in many places like say LatAm, South Asia  or Africa.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 19, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> I'm thinking heat, probably a favorable temperature range, because these regions are generally the hottest among the most affected countries.


Perhaps. Or maybe a social practice.

Let's look at the numbers(approx), currently.

China
81,000 infected
3300 dead
1,400,000,000 populace.

Italy
36,000 infected
3000 dead
60,000,000 populace

Iran
18,000 infected
1,100 dead
83,000,000 populace

When we look at these numbers, the differences between these nations and the rest of the world are staggering. With China, their numbers are easily explained by their vast population. With nearly 25% of the worlds population as well as being ground zero for the infection, high numbers are expected.

But with Italy, these facts are not true. They have a small fraction of the world's populace and they were not one of the first nations to have the infection, yet they have nearly equal numbers of deaths to China. Iran is a similar case, but with a smaller fraction of the deaths.

The healthcare systems in those nations might be behind the times a bit, but not enough to account for these levels of seriousness. Given the preponderance of available evidence, medical system unpreparedness can not be the total cause. A contributing factor, certainly, but not a major factor. Something else is causing more fatalities in those two nations than in the rest of the world. And it is not ignorance or inaction. Many of the worlds nations were just as ignorant and late to act and have not seen similar levels of severity.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 19, 2020)

hat said:


> It's also not very scientific to look at a number and say "well, that's the data we got, roll with it" when you know damn well the actual number of infected is way higher than that number... you just don't know what it is.



I agree but when somebody gives an actual guess as a figure, it's misleading. Whether we like it or not, people often grab onto tangible items (such as a number) and it gets thrown around as fact. So, absolutely, we know the cases are far higher than what is tested and confirmed but that is all we can say. Guessing at the actual number is not helpful at all.


----------



## hat (Mar 19, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I agree but when somebody gives an actual guess as a figure, it's misleading. Whether we like it or not, people often grab onto tangible items (such as a number) and it gets thrown around as fact. So, absolutely, we know the cases are far higher than what is tested and confirmed but that is all we can say. Guessing at the actual number is not helpful at all.


This much, I agree with fully. There are simulations, math, and estimated numbers, but it's still an estimation. These numbers should not be held as hard facts, but they're not useless either.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 19, 2020)

Three more confirmed cases in Alaska, two are from the lower 48, and the third is from Europe. 

There was talk of closing the state's border, and shelter in place.









						DHSS: Three new cases of new coronavirus in Alaska, bringing total to nine
					

Three new cases of the new coronavirus have been identified in Alaska, bringing the total to nine in the state thus far, as announced by the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Wednesday afternoon.




					www.ktuu.com


----------



## r.h.p (Mar 19, 2020)

Australian airline QANTAS has today layed off 30,000 employees till May due to Covid-19


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 19, 2020)

r.h.p said:


> Australian airline QANTAS has today layed off 30,000 employees till May due to Covid-19


Many airlines are going to be doing that. It's a bad time to be in aerospace.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 19, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Many airlines are going to be doing that. It's a bad time to be in aerospace.


Take a trip over to airliners.net to be fully engulfed in all matter dealing with aerospace and this mess.  From air traffic control towers being evacuated to load capacity reduction updates to stock price discussions.
I'd still rather be in aerospace than a hospital.  My work week starts Friday, I'll let you know if I still have a job.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 19, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Italy...isn't getting better...yet...
> View attachment 148455
> South Korea looks like they got a handle on it.



The possible scenario as it looks right now is that South Korea might be up for a second outbreak if they unlock the door again, especially to and from foreign countries. This is also the case and expectation for all those other countries that are having effective lockdowns at this time.

Given what I've seen and read, the most plausible scenario is a continued, reduced public lifestyle until we have vaccination, or until a large enough part of the populace is immunized through exposure. The current lockdown is not effective in creating the latter. Here in the Netherlands, thus far we've refrained from a _total_ lockdown and limited public life is possible, people do go outside but keep their distance. So there will still be new cases but they will accumulate less quickly, keeping the pressure on health care manageable. I think this will be our status quo for quite some time.

Basically we just need a little bit of everything so nothing truly falls apart. That also goes for the economy. Total shutdowns and hard measures will bite us in the ass hard and the counter effect may be worse than the problem we're fixing. I'm quite sure that reality is going to sink in elsewhere in due time as well. Not trying to say 'we in the Netherlands have the best approach'... but it does seem to be the most logical one to me given all the info I've had. One thing is dead certain... it is simply impossible to keep people behind (voluntary) locked doors for any longer than a couple of weeks. Its a mental exercise the vast majority can't cope with at all. China needed a carefully managed totalitarian system and culture for it - we don't have that stick in the West and even if we did, we wouldn't accept it.



lexluthermiester said:


> The healthcare systems in those nations might be behind the times a bit, but not enough to account for these levels of seriousness. Given the preponderance of available evidence, medical system unpreparedness can not be the total cause. A contributing factor, certainly, but not a major factor. Something else is causing more fatalities in those two nations than in the rest of the world. And it is not ignorance or inaction. Many of the worlds nations were just as ignorant and late to act and have not seen similar levels of severity.



Italy and Iran have just one single thing in common: they both ignored it for too long and even when they did respond, *it was completely uncoordinated*. Hospitals suddenly got flooded and the better half would probably not even have needed to be on an IC-ward at all. Said it before... Italy has some of the *best healthcare quality in the world*. But the worst national and crisis management too.

You say why Italy as if the country isn't unique. Italy is also the country of the collapsed Genoa bridge... It is the country that built FYRA high speed trains for us and managed to deliver a dozen or so and each of them would be _radically different. _Every individual builder of those trains made their own small design tweaks and decisions, even up to and including changes in the components themselves. Half of them was _back in maintenance during the first winter they were tested. _Yeah. Italy 

Italy... The numbers may surprise you, but they seem perfectly logical to me. Really.

This country builds a high risk structure over houses and then just stops maintenance. Another nice example is garbage. The southern half of Italy is a massive garbage bin, as in, there is frequently arising problem of garbage simply not being collected. Why? Corruption. The Mob. Yep... There are a lot of fat rich men in fat seats doing nothing over there and wielding a lot of power. For decades...


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 19, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> The possible scenario as it looks right now is that South Korea might be up for a second outbreak if they unlock the door again, especially to and from foreign countries. This is also the case and expectation for all those other countries that are having effective lockdowns at this time.
> 
> Given what I've seen and read, the most plausible scenario is a continued, reduced public lifestyle until we have vaccination, or until a large enough part of the populace is immunized through exposure. The current lockdown is not effective in creating the latter. Here in the Netherlands, thus far we've refrained from a _total_ lockdown and limited public life is possible, people do go outside but keep their distance. So there will still be new cases but they will accumulate less quickly, keeping the pressure on health care manageable. I think this will be our status quo for quite some time.
> 
> ...



Aside from the contextual relevance of too slow a response, let's steer clear of national mud-slinging. I'm sure there's a lot of Italian members that could take exception. What @Vayra86 says is opinion and scrapes past the requirements of being on-topic (imo). However, I'm warning against further posts like this unless they're justifiably drilling into the viral epidemiology.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 19, 2020)

Was not meant as mud slinging at all, I bet most Italians will agree. But I get ya.


----------



## r.h.p (Mar 19, 2020)

Check this out  from Perth WA ……...  



			Panic-buying at grand opening of Perth's first Costco


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 19, 2020)

I came across an interesting article regarding susceptible blood types. Obviously, early in the pandemic we're not going to have a large enough sample to give definitive info, but this shows an interesting trend...








						Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility
					

OBJECTIVE To investigate the relationship between the ABO blood group and the COVID-19 susceptibility.  DESIGN The study was conducted by comparing the blood group distribution in 2,173 patients with COVID-19 confirmed by SARS-CoV-2 test from three hospitals in Wuhan and Shenzhen, China with...




					www.medrxiv.org
				



I _think _even accounting for the difference in population percentages (see image below), the difference in numbers is significant enough to show that Type A Blood types are at greater risk than Type O by a far stretch...


----------



## ne6togadno (Mar 19, 2020)

article isnt in english but table is screenshot from us report




statistics are by 16.03.2020 (4426 cases in USA) but stats in table are only for 2449 cases as for the rest of the cases full info is not available.
first number is for all cases in the age group. 2nd is for the cases where medical data is available.
the stats are in line with known data from China.


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 19, 2020)

ne6togadno said:


> article isnt in english but table is screenshot from us report
> ....
> statistics are by 16.03.2020 (4426 cases in USA) but stats in table are only for 2449 cases as for the rest of the cases full info is not available.
> first number is for all cases in the age group. 2nd is for the cases where medical data is available.
> the stats are in line with known data from China.


Thanks for the find! Unfortunately, I'm afraid as is most of the "data" we receive from China, calling it "known" is questionable at best lol. 

I've a friend from high school whose 20-ish children have discovered the border to Mexico is still open, so they're going there for a few weeks for vacation. I get the people who _have_ to go places, and the ones who go out with a "really I'll have to get this at _some_ point" attitude, knowing the risk, taking precautions where they can, and minimizing exposure both to themselves and to other people. But I don't understand people who decide to go ahead and travel to another country for vacation while wearing ill-fitted paper masks.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 19, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> I came across an interesting article regarding susceptible blood types. Obviously, early in the pandemic we're not going to have a large enough sample to give definitive info, but this shows an interesting trend...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ok.....I just read that text yeah kind of interesting conclusion tho' maybe sample is not yet big enough we will see when we get more info from other countries....


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 19, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> Ok.....I just read that text yeah kind of interesting conclusion tho' maybe sample is not yet big enough we will see when we get more info from other countries....


No, a much lower percentage of infected are O+ than is part of the population.

Edit: Dang. You changed your post after I started my answer. Never mind.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 19, 2020)

1freedude said:


> My work week starts Friday, I'll let you know if I still have a job.


I hope you do. Good luck.

Continued research on this subject lead me to watch the following;








Worth watching.


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 19, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> Ok.....I just read that text yeah kind of interesting conclusion tho' maybe sample is not yet big enough we will see when we get more info from other countries....


Absolutely, said that in my opening line . I just saw the numbers and thought "Hm, I wonder if we've done that kind of testing/sampling for some of the other illnesses we have 'floating' around".  I'm hoping that there will be more hospitals and groups putting their numbers in a database somewhere anonymously to parse the commonalities and trends....



lexluthermiester said:


> I hope you do. Good luck.
> 
> Continued research on this lead me to watch the following;
> 
> ...


gods, I hope it doesn't get as bad as the Spanish flu.. I don't have time to check the vid right now, but from what I remember about the SFlu, that thing was virulent as hell, with a rapid kill pace....


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 19, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> gods, I hope it doesn't get as bad as the Spanish flu..


Very unlikely.


----------



## r.h.p (Mar 19, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I hope you do. Good luck.
> 
> Continued research on this lead me to watch the following;
> 
> ...



fRack me that vid is full on . .. It is so true I cant STAND COVID_19 anymore  , I'm running for the hills soon  im serious ill pack my backpack and go to the outback , and be by myself. There is no more masks left , a guy had a Hanky around his face down the shops !


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 19, 2020)

Also there are many claims&rumors that medics based on Ibuprofen could be harmful for those that are positive on Covid-19 maybe this is the hidden link as majority of elderly people in fact using this medications....Not sure what to believe anyway there are plenty of articles about this subject on net......
Here bellow I found this "fresh"video on this subject...


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 19, 2020)

Looks like Germany is heading the way of Italy, with cases exploding & will put a huge strain on their healthcare system. Given they're still well equipped to handle this, would be interesting to see if they can slow down or halt the spread before the number of cases exceed their capacity.

Slightly good news that Italy's mortality rate is going down, though with more tests the number of confirmed cases is still growing exponentially!


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 19, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> Looks like Germany is heading the way of Italy, with cases exploding & will put a huge strain on their healthcare system. Given they're still well equipped to handle this, would be interesting to see if they can slow down or halt the spread before the number of cases exceed their capacity.
> 
> Slightly good news that Italy's mortality rate is going down, though with more tests the number of confirmed cases is still growing exponentially!


While the infected numbers have gone up, which was expected, the mortality rate has leveled off. Out of 14,000ish cases in Germany, there are still only 43 fatalities.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 19, 2020)

Germany is definitely the model for handling this, even more so than South Korea. Though again the key here is how far can you stretch or stress the system because any & every healthcare system has its limits. What this crisis has shown though is how easily we can hit them, now with "social distancing" & mandatory lockdowns I'm hoping we'll avoid the absolute worst case scenario across the globe.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 19, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> Germany is definitely the model for handling this, even more so than South Korea.


I would say Taiwan is up there. They have managed to keep things under control as well.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 19, 2020)

Reuters finally added a map for USA:








						The novel coronavirus in the U.S.
					

How COVID-19 has spread across the U.S.




					graphics.reuters.com
				




A lot more here:








						Reuters Graphics - Charts, Maps, Interactive Graphics and Videos
					

The latest world news - politics, sports, culture, science and environment - from our graphics journalists in Singapore, Bangalore, London and New York.




					graphics.reuters.com


----------



## xkm1948 (Mar 19, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Thanks for the find! Unfortunately, *I'm afraid as is most of the "data" we receive from China, calling it "known" is questionable at best lol*.
> 
> I've a friend from high school whose 20-ish children have discovered the border to Mexico is still open, so they're going there for a few weeks for vacation. I get the people who _have_ to go places, and the ones who go out with a "really I'll have to get this at _some_ point" attitude, knowing the risk, taking precautions where they can, and minimizing exposure both to themselves and to other people. But I don't understand people who decide to go ahead and travel to another country for vacation while wearing ill-fitted paper masks.




This is the type of attitude I hate coming from general public as well as governmental officials.  

Data coming from China so they are bad? What the F is wrong with people? The US research labs had to relay on the Chinese researchers to provide crucial initial genetic information regarding the virus from the get go. So you want to throw everything "from China" out of the window?




Here, this MOFO genome of the virus where every major researcher relies on, coming from China


			Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, co - Nucleotide - NCBI
		


Look at the author list:
  AUTHORS   Wu,F., Zhao,S., Yu,B., Chen,Y.-M., Wang,W., Hu,Y., Song,Z.-G.,
            Tao,Z.-W., Tian,J.-H., Pei,Y.-Y., Yuan,M.L., Zhang,Y.-L.,
            Dai,F.-H., Liu,Y., Wang,Q.-M., Zheng,J.-J., Xu,L., Holmes,E.C. and
            Zhang,Y.-Z.

Oh bunch Chinese! Must be fake genome!

F*CK THIS



Jesus FKING Christ I am starting to loose it seeing all of these political BS during this horrible time. Once again, virus do not give a f*ck about your race, nationailty or political BS. WE ARE ALL EQUALLY MEAT TO THEM.


Quarantine works: When the Chinese did it all the media spin was "Inhumane, bad China bad"  When Italy had to do it all of a sudden it becomes acceptable. If most of the western nations did not sit on their collective fat asses and pointing fingers; if these nations actually listened to all of the researchers and started actions way earlier all of this could have been avoided!


Also for you nutcases believe this is some bio-weapon, take some time to read this Nature Medicine paper just published this week. It explains all you need to know


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## Frick (Mar 19, 2020)

xkm1948 said:


> Jesus FKING Christ I am starting to loose it seeing all of these political BS during this horrible time. Once again, virus do not give a f*ck about your race, nationailty or political BS. WE ARE ALL EQUALLY MEAT TO THEM.



That's what the chinese want you to think.

(joke, _obviously_)


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 19, 2020)

xkm1948 said:


> This is the type of attitude I hate coming from general public as well as governmental officials.
> 
> Data coming from China so they are bad? ...



Let me explain my stance. My wife is Taiwanese. She has family connections in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China. I've seen first hand the information that is provided to the public there as well as to the world over the years, and it is my personal belief that anything the Chinese government allows to be published or released has to be taken with a grain of salt, and compared.

eh, too far off topic. My statement regarding data from China is from a personal experience and exposure. I only intend to refer to being wary of the data provided to the world from the Chinese government.


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## xkm1948 (Mar 19, 2020)

This is Science, not the lounge. Wanna talk about your "gut feelings" go to the lounge. 

I am done here. You guys have fun with your political BS.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 19, 2020)

Some brief and pertinent info. Thanks to @xkm1948


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## HTC (Mar 19, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Let me explain my stance. My wife is Taiwanese. She has family connections in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China. I've seen first hand the information that is provided to the public there as well as to the world over the years, and it is my personal belief that anything the Chinese government allows to be published or released has to be taken with a grain of salt, and compared.
> 
> eh, too far off topic. My statement regarding data from China is from a personal experience and exposure. I only intend to refer to being wary of the data provided to the world from the Chinese government.



Personally speaking, i have NO DOUBT the data from China regarding the virus itself is 100% true. Why? Because it's in their best interest the world finds solutions / mitigations for this virus.

I do however have reservations about the validity of their infected / death toll numbers and i wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers were as high as an order of magnitude higher than those reported.


----------



## Lindatje (Mar 19, 2020)

HTC said:


> I do however have reservations about the validity of their infected / death toll numbers and i wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers were as high as an order of magnitude higher than those reported.


Why?


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 19, 2020)

xkm1948 said:


> This is the type of attitude I hate coming from general public as well as governmental officials.
> 
> Data coming from China so they are bad? What the F is wrong with people? The US research labs had to relay on the Chinese researchers to provide crucial initial genetic information regarding the virus from the get go. So you want to throw everything "from China" out of the window?
> 
> ...


Researchers ≠ Government.

You're mixing things up here. I don't trust anything from the Chinese government either, for very good reasons.
Try living in Taiwan or Hong Kong for a few years and I'm sure your views will change pretty rapidly.



Ahhzz said:


> Let me explain my stance. My wife is Taiwanese. She has family connections in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China. I've seen first hand the information that is provided to the public there as well as to the world over the years, and it is my personal belief that anything the Chinese government allows to be published or released has to be taken with a grain of salt, and compared.
> 
> eh, too far off topic. My statement regarding data from China is from a personal experience and exposure. I only intend to refer to being wary of the data provided to the world from the Chinese government.


Also, this ^
Note that grain should be replaced with shovels.



Lindatje said:


> Why?


Because it's not the first time they've done this. They reported that the African swine flu wasn't a problem in China, yet they'd already starting culling pigs. A few months later, it turned out it was a disaster in China. Now they've even started to import pork from the US, as there's a severe shortage in China. If they can do that do something that doesn't actually affect human beings, what do you think they'll do when there's a disease that kills human beings?
Also keep in mind that the doctors that wanted to spread the word initially, were all told to stop spreading fake news and some even got gagged by the government in Hubei.
The Wuhan virus had free spread for about two months, based on current known data, before any attempts were made to stop it from spreading.
So yes, the official numbers are not trustworthy.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 19, 2020)

The New Orleans area’s cases are growing out of control. It’s in the top 5 per Capita in the U.S., which means it has the potential to overload the health system, which is usually also based on a per capita figure. 

Finally my employer has relented and we will be teleworking, starting Monday. 2 have to come into the office each day, so occasional drive in will be ok.

347 Louisiana cases, with the vast majority in New Orleans itself. 8 deaths, of which half were over 80.








						Louisiana COVID-19 Interactive Map 2021
					

Use the map below to see where all of the cases of the coronavirus in Louisiana have been reported so far.




					www.wwltv.com


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 19, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Researchers ≠ Government.
> 
> You're mixing things up here. I don't trust anything from the Chinese government either, for very good reasons.
> Try living in Taiwan or Hong Kong for a few years and I'm sure your views will change pretty rapidly.
> ...


I totally understand why you have your doubts and I personally have my doubts in my government and in a matter of fact almost all governments in the world or some of their leading politicians have tendencies to lie but still we should act reasonable in situations like this one and think what is the Best for us and the rest of the humanity and seems like that Chinese measures have the positive effect and atm their experts have the most experience and I am glad that many of them are coming in my country in a few days to help our doctors in fight Vs Covid-19.....


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 19, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> The New Orleans area’s cases are growing out of control. It’s in the top 5 per Capita in the U.S., which means it has the potential to overload the health system, which is usually also based on a per capita figure.
> 
> Finally my employer has relented and we will be teleworking, starting Monday. 2 have to come into the office each day, so occasional drive in will be ok.
> 
> ...



It's kinda sad reading your updates. Wildfire comes to mind. Your reporting is greatly appreciated and coming from you, its devoid of hysteria and conjecture. We've got a long path on this one and I hope it doesnt come too close to your door. I visited my mother (73) in the week and I told her it wasn't a trivial matter - for her age group it's a 1 in 7 lottery. She told me to fuck off    . I love my mum. Moreso now my dad passed last year.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 19, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> I totally understand why you have your doubts and I personally have my doubts in my government and in a matter of fact almost all governments in the world or some of their leading politicians have tendencies to lie but still we should act reasonable in situations like this one and think what is the Best for us and the rest of the humanity and seems like that Chinese measures have the positive effect and atm their experts have the most experience and I am glad that many of them are coming in my country in a few days to help our doctors.....


I don't doubt the experts, but the Chinese government apparently is. They fired a top specialist and replaced him with someone that believes Chinese medicine can cure this virus   








						China coronavirus expert removed for rejecting Chinese herbal therapy: Report | Taiwan News | 2020-03-12 12:56:00
					

Xi Jinping advocates employing traditional Chinese medicine in fight against Wuhan virus.Zhong Nanshan removed from leadership upsets Xi Jinping for failing to adopt Chinese herbal therapy in treating patients. | 2020-03-12 12:56:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				



Hong Kong isn't exactly trusting the information from the Chinese government either.








						What is China not telling us about the novel coronavirus?
					

What is China not telling the world about the novel coronavirus?




					www.scmp.com


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 19, 2020)

Getting really pissed off with all the 'I don't trust China' posts. I get it. We get it. Move on and stay on topic.

FTR, China isnt the only country spouting shite about this virus. There are other world leaders suppressing the extent of it, or denying it's a problem.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 19, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> It's kinda sad reading your updates. Wildfire comes to mind. Your reporting is greatly appreciated and coming from you, its devoid of hysteria and conjecture. We've got a long path on this one and I hope it doesnt come too close to your door. I visited my mother (73) in the week and I told her it wasn't a trivial matter - for her age group it's a 1 in 7 lottery. She told me to fuck off    . I love my mum. Moreso now my dad passed last year.


It sounds like your mum has some good fighting spirit! That can be all the difference.

My ability to telework comes a bit too late though in some respects. Rather than contend with what I might bring home, we made the decision to send my wife (who works exclusively from home) to go live with her daughter (who is working from home for two months) for a couple months.  Oh well, I still have the one day a week I must go into the office, so I’m sure it’s for the best.


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## biffzinker (Mar 19, 2020)

US is now at 13,060 confirmed, not panicking but I'm certainly not happy with the direction this headed.

What doesn't help me is I'm in constant contact with the general public where I work.


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## HTC (Mar 19, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> Why?



Already replied by @TheLostSwede



the54thvoid said:


> Getting really pissed off with all the 'I don't trust China' posts. I get it. We get it. Move on and stay on topic.
> 
> *FTR, China isnt the only country spouting shite about this virus.* There are other world leaders suppressing the extent of it, or denying it's a problem.



Apologies, for my part.

Indeed: the most recent example comes from Brazil's President, who's trying to cover his head ... with a mask ...

It's beyond baffling how, in the face of all the current evidence worldwide, some leaders STILL think this isn't a SERIOUS case.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 19, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Getting really pissed off with all the 'I don't trust China' posts. I get it. We get it. Move on and stay on topic.
> 
> FTR, China isnt the only country spouting shite about this virus. There are other world leaders suppressing the extent of it, or denying it's a problem.


Please, do me a favour, go live in China for a year, then come back and have the same sentiment. Or even, a year in Hong Kong or Taiwan. Your views will change a lot.
I never said the Chinese government isn't the only one you can't trust, I'm skeptical against all of the "super powers" out there, as they hide a lot of things.
Maybe this was the wrong thread, but it was a reply to someone.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 20, 2020)

I’m very impressed with the map makers. They have done a Herculean job of ensuring current accuracy.

Our numbers for Louisiana are released twice per day. This evening we reported a jump to 392 cases and 10 deaths, which is what the map reports.

Of interest is the Governor today stated the state’s healthcare system is 7 days from being overburdened. At that point the deaths will start climbing quickly.  New Orleans with 70% of the cases could get overburdened in less than 7 days.


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## robot zombie (Mar 20, 2020)

@rtwjunkie 432 in Florida with 9 deaths... spooky.

I've been going back and forth with my Dad since it all started. He still maintains that it's wait-and-see, even as I point to the numbers in all states rapidly climbing. I mentioned how Florida doubles on some days and never less than a 30% increase in cases daily. No lie, his argument is "Well if it's inevitable why hasn't it showed up in our county?" And I'm like "You don't get it, it is only starting."

Today we had our first case and he had less to say.

But he will not admit to the distinct possibility that it's the beginning of an inevitable long ride. To him, we just don't know what will happen yet. And all I can think is "C'mon! You watch the news twice a day and yet you still think that? _How_. (Period, no question mark.)" I think in his mind, I'm just spelling doom and gloom but all I've ever argued for is that we're gonna be dealing with this for a long time. Just looking at literally everywhere else so far, I feel like it's safe to deduce that we now have, where we live, an extremely contagious novel virus that gradually spreads to huge amounts of people, necessitating for a lot of normal life to stop for indefinite periods of time - this happens every single time. You don't exactly need a crystal ball to see that, haha. At a minimum you can expect a lot of major disruptions and closures. It doesn't mean we're gonna be the next Italy, but things are gonna be real for a while.

He's not the only one I've met here who still has that attitude about it. People are still packing into the few restaurants that remain open and chillin on still-crowded beaches. I don't wanna be pessimistic about it but I get this vibe of false complacency in the area. Like, because not much is being said people assume all is mostly normal for now. That's all it is for them. It's like tomorrow isn't actually on the table at all for them.

I myself question the shutdowns... not so much whether they should happen, but how they're implemented... what kind of foresight really goes into them. The more I listen to various officials talk, the less of that I see. It is all in the now... later, later, later. Most people alive now have never seen a real pandemic. But I see a lot of conveying this aura of 'we're figuring it out' and 'its under control' or 'we are monitoring' which to me is another way of saying 'We don't actually know how what we're planning to do will pan out in terms of stopping the spreading or reducing economic strain.'

But even I can watch as my state's case count increases by consistently bigger numbers, making for 10x more cases in a matter of days, and see the writing on the wall. People here are still waiting for the government to tell them what's going on, so a lot of them are making bear minimum changes and hoping for the best, not even knowing that the first cases are being identified in their own town as they do so. "It's still over there, not over here."

I think that might be a hurdle for many American's specifically. For a while, it was pretty much only "over there" so some folks aren't making the mental transition. Pandemic = "everywhere" but for people now, it's like comprehending the distance to the sun. They know a little about it, maybe had some brushes. But the full reality has never had a chance to be integrated because nobody here has ever lived it... they know that other people have and have a rough idea of what that's like, but that's it. It's something other people have dealt with, not them... in their own minds, and in the experiences that have formed their reality.

I mean, that's part of why all of us here are watching so closely, right? Why others panic and do whatever comes to mind (because reality no longer makes sense - this isn't in thier 'world.) Why others look for blame. Why others still try to explain it away. It's incomprehensible. It's funny to see all of the different ways people react to things they don't understand, but know they need to. You get to see people go through that progression in ways you wouldn't otherwise get to see.

It's kind of a trip to think about. We're actually sort of entering a whole new reality, for everyone, from top to bottom. In some parts of the world it's not new, but for many people alive today it's completely alien. When's the last time everybody had to deal with something like this collectively? The spanish flu was in the early 1900's and I don't think there has been anything like that since. Its kinda like if we had WW2 come back today. People would know the history more than well enough to make basic sense of it, but not fully understand what their own lives were in that context.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 20, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> @rtwjunkie 432 in Florida with 9 deaths... spooky.
> 
> I've been going back and forth with my Dad since it all started. He still maintains that it's wait-and-see, even as I point to the numbers in all states rapidly climbing. I mentioned how Florida doubles on some days and never less than a 30% increase in cases daily. No lie, his argument is "Well if it's inevitable why hasn't it showed up in our county?" And I'm like "You don't get it, it is only starting."
> 
> ...


So, my immediate family is supposed to be in the Mt. Dora area right now (just north of Orlando).  We cancelled our trip because we thought we would bring it there or get sick on the way there from Oregon.  I was personally worried about getting stuck there because of flight reductions.

My pop usually has the same attitude as yours, but he is in official quarantine right now, with my mom in NY, because she went down to the same area, and came back ill. He is not the same.  Not freaking out, but getting sentimental, making sure we are OK, and telling us to have a good attitude.  He is a healthcare worker.  My brother is an EMT.  I am an incident safety officer.  It takes a lot to shake my family.  He is shaken.

Unfortunately, I think your pop will get that way too, hopefully before he sees the front line.

DK


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 20, 2020)

1freedude said:


> So, my immediate family is supposed to be in the Mt. Dora area right now (just north of Orlando).  We cancelled our trip because we thought we would bring it there or get sick on the way there from Oregon.  I was personally worried about getting stuck there because of flight reductions.
> 
> My pop usually has the same attitude as yours, but he is in official quarantine right now, with my mom in NY, because she went down to the same area, and came back ill. He is not the same.  Not freaking out, but getting sentimental, making sure we are OK, and telling us to have a good attitude.  He is a healthcare worker.  My brother is an EMT.  I am an incident safety officer.  It takes a lot to shake my family.  He is shaken.
> 
> ...


I think deep down inside he does know. I don't know how strongly it comes through on here, but we are too alike in how stubborn we are. If he was my age, he would probably be one of the people going out to eat and doing extra stuff right now. But because he's higher-risk at age 61, he's not actually taking chances. I know my father well enough at this point to just see that it's weighing on him, even if he doesn't show it. He grew up super rough-and-tumble. 70's-style conservative manhood. It's just his way. He's been a great dad to my sister and I for our whole lives - we were primarily raised to be our own people, but in situations like this he always wears shaking things off like a badge of honor. More than once, hurricane-force winds were an hour or two away when I finally convinced him to help me put the shutters up... these massive steel shutters were trying to take us hang-gliding as we wrestled them into the tracks.  Sometimes I think it is just my role in the family to temper it and challenge him. 

I think it's part of why I'm always very candid about how I see things, but try to be careful to consider where I might have blind-spots, just because I've had to be able to factor-in what he's seeing and lay out balanced comparisons to be able to get him to see what me and usually everyone around him notice he is seemingly deliberately missing. I've had to be able to figure it out organically... basically understand things as though I am him, and then feed it back to him, just as a way of showing I'm not out to argue. Just gotta be aware there's no playing 'Who's right?" with him. He's not as unreasonable as he seems - just very resolute.

You'd think he was just being a narcissist at a glance but in my experience he is sincere and humble when he does realize he's missed something. It's just a legitimate hole in his thinking. I hope I'm not actually like that, too haha. I can understand him, though. He does care, but I think that depending on what a person experiences in their life, they can wind-up with overactive bullshit sensors sometimes. On a larger scale, it seems like with men of that era, it was more expected that they would always maintain that aura of control and not be anybody's fool. But the other side of that is that family always comes first. So he will ultimately prioritize the concerns for his family unit, in spite of his own feelings on it. Sometimes I think that's just his way of dispelling worry.

Very common with the older generations, I think. The working class ones, anyway. Met a lot of the exact same guy around his age working on different construction and repair gigs.

It's funny you mention not traveling here to avoid not only catching it here, but getting sick on the way down. There has been an influx of NY plates here over the past 2 days. I see more NY plates than FL ones. And then on the news a few of the interviewed are saying they came here to get away from the virus. 

A day later we would have our first case in the county. Until then we were kind of in the eye of the storm, surrounded by thick, unavoidable bands of counties with growing cases. Really wish they wouldn't have come. Not to say they brought it to us... though I'd believe a few of them brought it with them. Either way, probably did neither us nor them any good. Again, pandemics are new to people in a nitty-gritty sense, so they may not consider that there isn't any running from something like this... because that isn't how they work. I can see it if you have a route where you make no stops, know you're not sick, and plan on staying exactly where you wind up at. It's not hard to see how being away from metropolitan areas can be a lot better. But it's pretty risky in itself. It's a bit late to be relocating now, anyway. It would take a lot for me to risk it, personally.

I can personally say I appreciate your caution and hope you and your family stay well.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 20, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> I think deep down inside he does know. I don't know how strongly it comes through on here, but we are too alike in how stubborn we are.


It's likely his way dealing with what is happening.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 20, 2020)

HTC said:


> Personally speaking, i have NO DOUBT the data from China regarding the virus itself is 100% true. Why? Because it's in their best interest the world finds solutions / mitigations for this virus.


I have to agree with this. China is as much on the spot as they are on point. They mess this up on any level and it will have massive negative repercussions for years to come. I believe the science coming out of China is solid because, as was said above, it's very much in their best interests.

That having been said, the thread on COVID19 in the lounge is for the political & social discussion of these issues. This thread was created to track the outbreak and discuss the science of the subject, thus posting it in the Science & Technology SubForum. As the staff have already asked, let's all please stay on topic and take other issues to the other thread.



rtwjunkie said:


> I’m very impressed with the map makers. They have done a Herculean job of ensuring current accuracy.


They really have. It's one of the reasons I've been impressed by the Johns Hopkins Maps in the OP.


----------



## Flanker (Mar 20, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:
			
		

> post marked LQ


I hope you don't mind me saying this but that website is literally Fox News Taiwan. If they are not affiliated in anyway, they have the same degree of bias and BS.  That news piece right there is such BS. Said specialist hasn't been fired at all and he is still in the news headlines everyday in Chinese news apps talking about current progresses and what not. Herbal meds have proved nothing so far aside from placebo in China.

As for the stats, in earlier stages of the outbreak, they had a lot of trouble getting people(especially those in Hubei) to take this serious. Like the whole nation was screaming SAR 2.0 in horror and you have people in Hubei being all chill and think everyone else is overreacting. Only when the death tolls started mounting, they started to realize this shit is real. So that's one reason why they want to show real data this time.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 20, 2020)

COVID-19 Updates : Oregon Health Authority
					

Oregon Health Authority | COVID-19 Updates




					govstatus.egov.com
				




For the Oregon bastards among us.  Its not a map, but lots of useful info.

Thanks robot zombie.  You have a grasp of your universe that others only dream of.


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## robot zombie (Mar 20, 2020)

1freedude said:


> COVID-19 Updates : Oregon Health Authority
> 
> 
> Oregon Health Authority | COVID-19 Updates
> ...


That's very nice of you to say. I appreciate that YOU think so 

If I am being completely honest I am not all that self-confident. Sometimes I look at other people and wish I had figured-out what they have figured-out. I don't think I've ever fully had a handle on my own life, let alone what's happening around me. I have my own persistent neuroses, which consistently give me too good of reasons to doubt. It's just that everyday fear of life. I often fail to be as patient or honest with myself as I should be. I suppose I do have my compass, even if it often feels like there is no true north. Being self-analytical is a double-edged sword, but there's something to be said of finding trust and forgiveness in and for oneself in ones' flaws. Serenity comes and goes, often against our will. At some points you just gotta know it'll be there when the time is right, and realize it's okay when it's not - nothing wrong with being off-center, so long as you honestly reflect on it when you are back in the pocket. Life comes at ya all of the time, but just as nothing you love is, in truth, entirely what you love it for being, nothing you fear is ever exactly as you fear it to be. I wish I had figured that out a lot sooner than I did, though... and I still forget a good half of the time  

I'm really drifting now and I will stop. I do have a point that I think is relevant to this thread, perhaps at least slightly more than the other one in that it's the people in this one who might need to see it more.

I just wanna take a minute to remind people to pull away from all of this SARS II: Electric Boogaloo tomfoolery routinely and swiftly. I think I myself have been watching the numbers and reading too much for my own good. It's not as 'productive' as it seems 'important.' And it is important - gotta always have a handle on things, but it's way too easy to lose sight of yourself in that endeavor. I look around at people who are already consumed and judge them, but a lot of us here are probably doing the same things that lead a person to lose touch with their own self... over-analyzing this constant influx of new information and looming questions... always trying to have a handle on things as often as possible. It's probably not possible to fully grapple right now. It can break you down and muddle your decisions. Within myself, I can sense the anxiety and obsession trickling into places it shouldn't be, regardless of what is happening. I think it only adds more stress when it's all that anybody talks about.

How often have you all read about COVID-19 this past week? How much time a day do you spend thinking/talking about it? What's the percentage rate? What about just having it in the back of your mind?

There will be much to contend with for all of us, but that remains static, whether you spend all of your time focusing on it or not. I could argue that life is this way from start to finish and things like that just make the game we play with this world we've made for ourselves more obvious than usual. There's really never been any such thing as 'business as usual', has there?

The problem will still be there tomorrow and so will the unknowns, and after that, there will be more. We will all need our strength of spirit as we go on doing whatever we need to do to make it through this. Knowing what's going on can't always afford a person that ability. It's hard enough having ones life and well-being up in the air without zooming in on the source every day. So I hope that all of you are taking some time to enjoy yourselves and appreciate the people/things that matter between mulling through all of the data and chatter in this thread, in your communities, and all over the media.

Don't let all of this madness around you become the madness that IS you. It happens so fast. Humans are like that. It's such a silly, platitudinous thing to point out, but seriously now... STOP reading all of these charts, lists, and articles... and go do something meaningful with some of that time. As things ramp up, it only gets harder to break away, as necessity dictates more and more engagement. I feel like this coronavirus is becoming people's whole lives... understandable given the impact, but that's not what I mean.


----------



## ne6togadno (Mar 20, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Thanks for the find! Unfortunately, I'm afraid as is most of the "data" we receive from China, calling it "known" is questionable at best lol.
> 
> I've a friend from high school whose 20-ish children have discovered the border to Mexico is still open, so they're going there for a few weeks for vacation. I get the people who _have_ to go places, and the ones who go out with a "really I'll have to get this at _some_ point" attitude, knowing the risk, taking precautions where they can, and minimizing exposure both to themselves and to other people. But I don't understand people who decide to go ahead and travel to another country for vacation while wearing ill-fitted paper masks.


well the news article is short summery of this https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm (i just found they've added link to the original article from cdc).
in the original it is also phrased "data from China" (first paragraph after "discussion").

as for the people traveling. it is the same way all over the world. few days after italy closed their borders when it was obvious soon other countries will follow a group of 47 "tourist" (i'd say idiots) from my country went on a trip abroad. got their flight to home canceled. they couldnt secure another flight reservation to home and in day or two it was expected that country they were in will close their borders. their hotel accommodation is ending and they cant go back home. the person that was organizing the trip is whining in media they cant go back home and that locals are acting unfriendly to them (ofc they'd do. you are obvious foreigner in N. African country and most likely you are coming from country affected with covid while the country you are visiting is so far clear. how would you expect locals to react - come to hang you and carry you on their hands you dumb head? ).
so government has to send plane to bring them back home and entire country has to pay because 47 idiots couldnt lose the tax for canceled trip reservation....

i cant remember who has said that only 2% of human population is able to use what is between their ears but in the times like this the truth in this statement becomes very very obvious.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 20, 2020)

ne6togadno said:


> i cant remember who has said that *only 2%* of human population is able to use what is between their ears but in the times like this the truth in this statement becomes very very obvious.


I think you'll find the real number to be much much lower, especially in the face of a calamity


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## ne6togadno (Mar 20, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> I think you'll find the real number to be much much lower, especially in the face of a calamity


2% is citation from the person which name i cant remember.
i havent done researches in this direction myself but looking at irrational and idiotic reactions of the people shown in media may be you are very right 
i think psychologists will have data for analysis for years ahead after dust from this has settled. and i dont expect their conclusions to be flattering for humanity.  

in facebook post (i know i know it's ) medical professor from one of the hospitals in my country shared that there is relation between deficit of 32 Se (selenium) based antioxidants in the human bodies and the aggressiveness of mutations and replications of the RNA viruses. so lower Se based antioxidants you have more aggressive is mutation and replication of the rna viruses in your body. also being affected with rna virus leads to reduction of Se based antioxidants in the body. as you can see it is self inducing process that can worsen the things for affected person.
mentioned in the post groups in risk are people living in overpopulated ares with polluted air and cold continental climate and people with lowered immunity due to recent flu or other illness caused by rna virus (some variations of flu are rna based). she said paper on the subject will be published asap but i doubt this paper will be of interest for general public.

the general advice given was if you are in risk group (or if you have concerns) make a test for Se levels in the blood and consult with your doctor
and/or increase eggs, walnuts, almonds and apricot nuts in your diet (no recommendations given for quantities). brazilian nut is also good source of Se *but you should not exceed quantity of 3-4 nuts daily*. those measures has to be taken for about a month. i am not sure if this will truly help but eating a bit more eggs and nuts for a month wont hurt much (make sure you dont have any other conditions that prevent you to eat above mentioned foods).

NOTE THAT THIS WILL NOT SAVE OR HEAL YOU FROM COVID-19 OR ANY OTHER VIRUS SO IF YOU FEEL SICK FIRST CONTACT YOUR DOCTOR!

ofc take any health advised found in the internet with a pile of salt and DONT TAKE ANY MEDICINES BEFORE YOU HAVE CONSULTED WITH YOUR DOCTOR!


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 20, 2020)

I LQ'd the above post as it's off-topic. This isn't the place for unconfirmed nutritional benefits and besides, I work in fitness, studied Nutrition at Masters level, and don't think it's helpful to start down that path in this thread.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 20, 2020)

xkm1948 said:


> This is the type of attitude I hate coming from general public as well as governmental officials.
> 
> Data coming from China so they are bad? What the F is wrong with people? The US research labs had to relay on the Chinese researchers to provide crucial initial genetic information regarding the virus from the get go. So you want to throw everything "from China" out of the window?
> 
> ...



You're quite right and I recognize your sentiment. I get that from time to time. For example when it comes to anti vaxxers. And I get it too now with the conspiracy flying around in the... guess what, mostly the US. Bunch of nutcases.

The nutcase however is not the norm. If I look around in the real world I see a lot of fact based and measured response. No bullshit.



robot zombie said:


> That's very nice of you to say. I appreciate that YOU think so
> 
> If I am being completely honest I am not all that self-confident. Sometimes I look at other people and wish I had figured-out what they have figured-out. I don't think I've ever fully had a handle on my own life, let alone what's happening around me. I have my own persistent neuroses, which consistently give me too good of reasons to doubt. It's just that everyday fear of life. I often fail to be as patient or honest with myself as I should be. I suppose I do have my compass, even if it often feels like there is no true north. Being self-analytical is a double-edged sword, but there's something to be said of finding trust and forgiveness in and for oneself in ones' flaws. Serenity comes and goes, often against our will. At some points you just gotta know it'll be there when the time is right, and realize it's okay when it's not - nothing wrong with being off-center, so long as you honestly reflect on it when you are back in the pocket. Life comes at ya all of the time, but just as nothing you love is, in truth, entirely what you love it for being, nothing you fear is ever exactly as you fear it to be. I wish I had figured that out a lot sooner than I did, though... and I still forget a good half of the time
> 
> ...



Fun fact. When they started the partial lockdown in the Netherlands, closing the bars and restaurants and stuff, they also closed the coffeeshops. They announced it at 17.30 and it would start right at 18.00. In that half hour, huge lines at all the shops... immediately after, illegal trade was up and running at large. A day later they announced that shops could remain open for sale only, no visits. People needed cure for the madness and they have it. I have no worries of things going crazy over here  Fact based governance. Love it.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 20, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> In my opinion this is the right time when human race should reconsider and maybe finally overcome the nonsensical Monetary System as it s ATM....



We already tried Bitcoin and it was awful...


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 20, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> We already tried Bitcoin and it was awful...


Bitcoin is only replacement and in it's core is also belongs to the monetary system....I never meant on that.....


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 20, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> Bitcoin is only replacement and in it's core is also belongs to the monetary system....



It wasn't ever intended to do so, but yeah, nowadays pretty much is.  Precisely why it's dead also.

/OT


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 20, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> We already tried Bitcoin and it was awful...





Zyll Goliath said:


> Bitcoin is only replacement and in it's core is also belongs to the monetary system....I never meant on that.....





R-T-B said:


> It wasn't ever intended to do so, but yeah, nowadays pretty much is.  Precisely why it's dead also.
> 
> /OT



Yes, all very Off Topic


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 20, 2020)

How credible are the reports that anti malaria drugs seem to be working against this, any pattern or history if at all?


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 20, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> How credible are the reports that anti malaria drugs seem to be working against this, any pattern or history if at all?


The reports I’ve read/heard sound credible, but in the U.S. at least the FDA will have to study it in order for it to be approved...unless they slash all those limitations.

The list of side effects is as long as my arm. I was on it in my 20’s for almost a year thanks to back to back deployments in the Army, and it permanently screwed my digestive system up. I’ve been lactose intolerant among other things after having taken it for 9 months straight.  It’s also lethal to children.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 20, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> How credible are the reports that anti malaria drugs seem to be working against this, any pattern or history if at all?


Yeah I heard that 2 also for *Hydroxychloroquine* /Plaquenil.....link:https://www.lupusresearch.org/hydroxychloroquine-common-lupus-drug-in-testing-for-covid-19/


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## R0H1T (Mar 20, 2020)

For some reason I'm also getting Claritin-D ads on YouTube to "soothe" with symptoms/pain of nCoV, I'll have to watch them again to check if that's ad verbatim.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 20, 2020)

Well, in the UK, our PM has just announced all pubs, restaurants and bars must close tonight. Gyms, Theatres, Leisure Centres etc must close as soon as reasonably possible. Up to 80% of wages will be covered (to a max of £2500 per month) by the government.

Holy moly. That's our lockdown.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 20, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, in the UK, our PM has just announced all pubs, restaurants and bars must close tonight. Gyms, Theatres, Leisure Centres etc must close as soon as reasonably possible. Up to 80% of wages will be covered (to a max of £2500 per month) by the government.
> 
> Holy moly. That's our lockdown.


It will take awhile before you see any result. Everything has been closed here for 6 days now. I fully expect our rapid daily increase in positive cases will not slow down until we see 2 to 3 weeks total of closures.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 20, 2020)

Yeah, Italy (lock down nationwide since 12th March) had its highest daily death rate at over 600. Over 4000 deaths so far.


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## HTC (Mar 20, 2020)

Portugal crossed the 1K cases barrier: 1020 cases, with 6 fatalities and 5 recovered.


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## Tomgang (Mar 20, 2020)

Denmark is now up to 1255 confirmed cases but with a significant dark number. 153 are now in hospital, 37 is in critical condition from 27 of them needs help from a respirator and the most sad part is we now have 9 dead so far and all numbers are still climbing, no sings of decreasing so far.

And when we so finally are out of this mess, we are heading to another mess. For some like me find a job again and off cause a world suffering economic trouble properly big troube in the time ahead and wounds from the virus needs healing as well. 2020 is gonna be a nightmare i think most people just want to get by as fast as possible and forget and hope 2021 will be a better year


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## Zyll Goliat (Mar 20, 2020)

So from tonight we have first victim in Serbia and we have 8 more in critical condition with 135 confirmed cases....Our government already implement very strict measures also now we expecting Chinese experts and some medical ads to arrive from China......


----------



## HTC (Mar 20, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Yeah, Italy (lock down nationwide since 12th March) had its highest daily death rate at over 600. Over 4000 deaths so far.



Unfortunately, this number will continue to rise sharply until the incubation period of those that contracted the virus BEFORE the lockdown passes: then, there will be a significant reduction in new cases.


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## TheLostSwede (Mar 20, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal crossed the 1K cases barrier: 1020 cases, with 6 fatalities and 5 recovered.


Welcome to the 1k club? Sweden passed that barrier a few days ago. Five deaths today.


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## HTC (Mar 20, 2020)

Governments should mass test people's temperature via thermometer guns and conduct immediate tests on those found to have elevated temp, while isolating them to be on the safe side until the results are known.

I realize this isn't 100% accurate because there are a miried number of reasons people can have elevated temperature, but @ least it should help, no?


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 20, 2020)

HTC said:


> Governments should mass test people's temperature via thermometer guns and conduct immediate tests on those found to have elevated temp, while isolating them to be on the safe side until the results are known.
> 
> I realize this isn't 100% accurate because there are a miried number of reasons people can have elevated temperature, but @ least it should help, no?



Theromometer guns aren't precise enough at all.  You'd get readings all over the board.

Plus fever is only one symptom and some don't even get it (rare though).


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 20, 2020)

Louisiana jumped to 537 this afternoon and up to 14 deaths.  It breaks down to 326 in New Orleans, and 136 in the surrounding metropolitan area.


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## AsRock (Mar 20, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> I'm not sure what affect testing, testing & more testing would have on the number of (new) cases ~ which are now seemingly coming under control. It has to do more with their *healthcare system*. Their mortality rate is about 1% vs 4% for China & 10% for Italy, the second wave thing would be crucial though & how quickly nCoV spreads in the summers.



HAHA, i would not believe any numbers of how many are in China.


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## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> *Theromometer guns aren't precise enough at all.*  You'd get readings all over the board.
> 
> Plus fever is only one symptom and some don't even get it (rare though).


South Korea and China are using them a lot: if they can, why can't we?

Since most DO get a fever, even if mild, it seems to me this is a good way to pick up on *potential* COVID-19 cases almost right away.


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## R-T-B (Mar 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> South Korea and China are using them a lot: if they can, why can't we?



I guess I'm only familiar with cheap consumer models.  Maybe there are better ones?



HTC said:


> Since most DO get a fever, even if mild, it seems to me this is a good way to pick up on *potential* COVID-19 cases almost right away.



If the guns really do work with that accuracy level, then yeah, I agree.



AsRock said:


> HAHA, i would not believe any numbers of how many are in China.



What's sad is given our lack of testing gear we aren't reporting any better than China...  except maybe we at least aren't INTENTIONALLY fudging the numbers.


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## AsRock (Mar 21, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> I guess I'm only familiar with cheap consumer models.  Maybe there are better ones?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Who knows ?, china will not even let the CDC in the country to do tests or any thing, their more bothered about blaming  America or even Italy for it.

IF China ( CCCP ) would allow the CDC in and collect data we all would know more.


----------



## Flanker (Mar 21, 2020)

AsRock said:


> Who knows ?, china will not even let the CDC in the country to do tests or any thing, their more bothered about blaming  America or even Italy for it.
> 
> IF China ( CCCP ) would allow the CDC in and collect data we all would know more.


Would you like to have the Chinese equivalent of CDC do tests in your country and collect all kinds of data when there is an outbreak?


----------



## AsRock (Mar 21, 2020)

Flanker said:


> Would you like to have the Chinese equivalent of CDC do tests in your country and collect all kinds of data when there is an outbreak?



Valid point you have, but they are hiding important information either way and on top of that everyone else has to pay for their once again BS.  And stop blaming other country's or the US Army or just anyone non Chinese what started this again.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 21, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Louisiana jumped to 537 this afternoon and up to 14 deaths.  It breaks down to 326 in New Orleans, and 136 in the surrounding metropolitan area.



Quick stats check, Louisiana is 52k square miles, with under 5 million souls. Scotland is 30k square miles and over 5 million souls (322 positive tests and 6 deaths). Population density (you'd think) could be a mitigating factor. Big cities will have more containment problems as well. Most of my country, north of the Glasgow-Edinburgh line is actually quite low for people per mile.


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## R-T-B (Mar 21, 2020)

Re China and the CDC:

I mean given the CDC only operates in America, I don't think China would allow them in as we haven't even offered their services...  assuming ASRock means the WHO, which I do believe is allowed in China in a limited sense.  But my point is not that China is innocent, it's more that we are still guilty.  Everyone who enables this to spread is as guilty as the orgin.  That's how viruses work.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

There's too much unknowns right now.






Notice the differences between Germany / Spain and USA / Iran: 940 more cases confirmed in Germany than Spain but Spain currently has over 16 times more deaths thus far, and a similar thing is happening with Iran VS USA, with almost the same number of cases confirmed but more than 5 times more deaths in Iran than in USA. Similar situation with the recovery numbers that are so vastly different between these 4 countries.

I know it can be partially explained by more VS less testing in those countries but i don't think it's JUST that, with more factors being @ play that we've yet to grasp: until we ascertain those other factors in our fight VS this virus, we'll continue to play catch-up instead of placing ourselves ahead of it.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 21, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Over 4000 deaths so far.


Italy has greatly overtaken China in fatalities. No one else is even coming close. I feel for the Italian people. However, I still stand by my theory that there is something different about that nation that is making them more vulnerable than anywhere else. This is a mystery that needs to be solved.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> *Italy has greatly overtaken China in fatalities.* No one else is even coming close. I feel for the Italian people. However, I still stand by my theory that there is something different about that nation that is making them more vulnerable than anywhere else. *This is a mystery that needs to be solved.*



It's because their hospital system is so severely overwhelmed and they were literally forced to choose who to try and save, thus condemning to death those "unlucky enough not to be chosen".

Worse still, just because they end up choosing X, Y or Z over A, B, or C doesn't mean they succeeded so, most likely, A, B and C died but that doesn't mean X, Y and Z were all saved.

Fully agree.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> It's because their hospital system is so severely overwhelmed and they were literally forced to choose who to try and save, thus condemning to death those "unlucky enough not to be chosen".


That has been mentioned and while I agree it is a variable in the problem, it is not the whole problem and likely not a major part. The healthcare systems of many a nation have been overwhelmed, yet they are not experiencing the massive mortality percentages Italy has. The same can be said of Iran and Spain. No one except China has even gotten close to those numbers but they have a huge population so those numbers are still a low percentage of the total.



HTC said:


> Worse still, just because they end up choosing X, Y or Z over A, B, or C doesn't mean they succeeded so, most likely, A, B and C died but that doesn't mean X, Y and Z were all saved.


Good point!


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That has been mentioned and while I agree it is a variable in the problem, it is not the whole problem and likely not a major part. *The healthcare systems of many a nation have been overwhelmed*, yet they are not experiencing the massive mortality percentages Italy has. The same can be said of Iran and Spain. No one except China has even gotten close to those numbers but they have a huge population so those numbers are still a low percentage of the total.
> 
> 
> Good point!



But not to the extent of Italy's. The number of cases in Italy is behind only that of China and, currently, is more than double that of anywhere else in Europe so they are, @ the very least, twice more overwhelmed than anywhere else.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> But not to the extent of Italy's. The number of cases in Italy is behind only that of China and, currently, is more than double that of anywhere else in Europe so they are, @ the very least, twice more overwhelmed than anywhere else.


The problem with that conclusion is that Italy's heathcare system is considered to be on par with the rest of the EU and the US. Spain and Iran likewise. There's got to be more at play in that area of the world. The situation and the numbers are telling us the story, but we're missing something.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> The problem with that conclusion is that Italy's heathcare system is considered to be on par with the rest of the EU and the US. Spain and Iran likewise. *There's got to be more at play in that area of the world.* The situation and the numbers are telling us the story, but *we're missing something.*


Agreed.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 21, 2020)

So far, according to my local Health Agency, Stanislaus County has 5 confirmed cases and 0 deaths. I worry for my mom who is 65 and has suffered from high blood pressure for years, and was recently diagnosed with diabetes (which she's been controlling like a champ so she doesn't have to take pills or get insulin shots), and my sister who is 10 years older than me, but has had lung problems her entire life. I have them too, but not to the extent that she does (pneumonia and bronchitis happen to her a lot). I guess the good thing is we all live together, so we're able to watch out for each other. 

Stay safe, stay sane, stay healthy, my peeps


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## lexluthermiester (Mar 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> Agreed.


What stands out, to me at least, is that Portugal is in the same area of the world, has a similarly solid heathcare system and reacted in a similar time-frame. Yet you folks are nowhere near the numbers of the rest of that area of the world.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> What stands out, to me at least, is that Portugal is in the same area of the world,* has a similarly solid heathcare system and reacted in a similar time-frame.* Yet you folks are nowhere near the numbers of the rest of that area of the world.



I beg to differ: the number of ICUs over here is roughly 1 / 3rd that of Italy's per 100K people. It it ever hit us the same way it's doing to Italy, we're ROYALLY screwed.

In fact, due to the financial crisis of 2008, we were forced to ask FMI for help with our Deficit and we're still under the effects of generalized cutbacks enforced on the public institutions, including healthcare, to help contain the Deficit problem.

Currently, we have 1020 confirmed cases, with 7 deaths and 5 recoveries. HOWEVER, today's numbers haven't been published yet.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> I beg to differ: the number of ICUs over here is roughly 1 / 3rd that of Italy's per 100K people.


Intersting. I was reading an article on Reuters that mentioned Portugal in the same breath as the general EU as far as healthcare capabilities. Let's go with your info though. Portugal is still in much better shape than Spain and Italy only a few hundred miles away.

My theory is this: Italy has some form of environmental and biochemical factors playing a role in the severity of the virus impact on that nation. The same is likely in Spain and Iran. 

The US, Japan and the British Isles were among the first exposed and somewhat slow to respond, yet nations are not getting hit nearly as hard.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 21, 2020)

Spain's numbers (deaths) are now up:

From 767 - 1002 - 1326, over the past three days. This is pure conjecture but in some places, if the infection began in closed spaces (apartment blocks) and spread in places where family is community, it could explain the physical nature of the spread. In other places, more remote, spread would be contained by simple geography - isolation by way of travel. Either way, it's pretty obvious the death toll in Europe will be high.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Intersting. *I was reading an article on Reuters that mentioned Portugal in the same breath as the general EU as far as healthcare capabilities.* Let's go with your info though. Portugal is still in much better shape than Spain and Italy only a few hundred miles away.
> 
> My theory is this: Italy has some form of environmental and biochemical factors playing a role in the severity of the virus impact on that nation. The same is likely in Spain and Iran.
> 
> The US, Japan and the British Isles were among the first exposed and somewhat slow to respond, yet nations are not getting hit nearly as hard.



This data is from 2012:









						The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe - Intensive Care Medicine
					

Purpose To quantify the numbers of critical care beds in Europe and to understand the differences in these numbers between countries when corrected for population size and gross domestic product. Methods Prospective data collection of critical care bed numbers for each country in Europe from...




					link.springer.com
				




Compare the differences between Italy and Portugal: we are far FAR down in that graph.


----------



## Vya Domus (Mar 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> I know it can be partially explained by more VS less testing in those countries but i don't think it's JUST that, with more factors being @ play that we've yet to grasp: until we ascertain those other factors in our fight VS this virus, we'll continue to play catch-up instead of placing ourselves ahead of it.




The disease is the constant everywhere, the health care and government measures aren't. It's as simple as that.

Regardless, maybe this is going to be an alarm signal for people to live a more healthier lifestyle. Yes, it's sad that smoking, heart disease, diabetes, etc puts you at risk and those are the people that are going to be most affected but these death tolls would have been greatly diminished if only people took more care of themselves.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

Portugal's cases were updated:

1280 confirmed cases, with 12 deaths and 5 recovered


----------



## Outback Bronze (Mar 21, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> but we're missing something.



Could it be this? : Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

Outback Bronze said:


> Could it be this? : Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.



It's certainly a factor but i don't think it's the only one: something else is going on that we've yet to identify.

Portugal's 1st cases *seem* to have been "imported" from Italy: Portuguese people that vacationed there in February. The theory that Italy has been seeing a deadlier strain of this virus doesn't hold much ground because, though our numbers are escalating, we're nowhere near Italy's numbers, for now.

It could be as simple as the socializing aspect that may be more predominant in Italy than in other countries, thus making the consequences in Italy more severe: this is however *a speculation *on my part.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 21, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, in the UK, our PM has just announced all pubs, restaurants and bars must close tonight. Gyms, Theatres, Leisure Centres etc must close as soon as reasonably possible. Up to 80% of wages will be covered (to a max of £2500 per month) by the government.
> 
> Holy moly. That's our lockdown.



Yep same as over here... good to see they are not going total closure as they did in some other places.



rtwjunkie said:


> It will take awhile before you see any result. Everything has been closed here for 6 days now. I fully expect our rapid daily increase in positive cases will not slow down until we see 2 to 3 weeks total of closures.



6 days!? What is that gonna do? Incubation is 14 days alone already...



Outback Bronze said:


> Could it be this? : Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.



This plus overcrowded hospitals and no management for crisis and IC beds with breathing equipment. The result is high death toll. No need to dig much deeper...


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

Portugal has taken a few steps in an effort to mitigate the consequences of this virus

- businesses will be granted access to loans from the government but ONLY IF they don't fire people.
- fiscal obligations will be shortened / delayed for 3 months
- no forced evictions allowed for the next 3 months
- housing rental will be granted automatic renovation for 3 months
- a bunch of other measures


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 21, 2020)

Outback Bronze said:


> Could it be this? : Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.


This could be part of the equation.



Vayra86 said:


> Incubation is 14 days alone already...


It's more than that. Estimations, depending on where you look, are anywhere from 3 weeks to 10 weeks. This means that the infected likely don't know it because they are asymptomatic and will not show symptoms for perhaps a month or more.



HTC said:


> This data is from 2012:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


While that is fair, that was 8 years ago. I wonder what the situation is like currently?


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 21, 2020)

The shutdown lockdown will likely last *at least a quarter or two*, at the very least. We may have some restrictions being eased off temporarily, but that'll not be the norm the way it's spreading right now! Heck there's a *mini curfew* drill tomorrow over here, imagine virtually 1.3+ billion being told to stay at home


----------



## Lindatje (Mar 21, 2020)

Here in the Netherlands they have cut back a lot on healthcare for many years and it is also privatized.
and now that manifests itself. I don't know how it went in other countries in the EU? Maybe that's just the difference with eg China.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> While that is fair, that was 8 years ago. I wonder what the situation is like currently?



Considering until much more recently we had to contend with TROIKA due to our Deficit problem, i'd expect it to actually be worse than back in 2012 but i can't be sure, obviously.

EDIT

Actually, i think the reduction in our healthcare could be more of personnel rather than of equipment.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 21, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> Here in the Netherlands they have cut back a lot on healthcare for many years and it is also privatized.
> and now that manifests itself. I don't know how it went in other countries in the EU? Maybe that's just the difference with eg China.


It seems to be the same in most of Europe. Everything was supposed to get more effective and save money, but it seems quite the opposite happened. Too many outside managers and for profit doesn't work well when it comes to healthcare.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 21, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Quick stats check, Louisiana is 52k square miles, with under 5 million souls. Scotland is 30k square miles and over 5 million souls (322 positive tests and 6 deaths). Population density (you'd think) could be a mitigating factor. Big cities will have more containment problems as well. Most of my country, north of the Glasgow-Edinburgh line is actually quite low for people per mile.


True that! Most of our infections are in the most populated section of the state.



Vayra86 said:


> 6 days!? What is that gonna do? Incubation is 14 days alone already...


Apparently you didnt’t read the rest of what you actually quoted, LOL. I in fact SAID that it would be 2 to 3 weeks MORE to see a difference, and this was all in response to @the54thvoid saying their near lockdown just started, so it will be awhile before they see a difference.


----------



## HTC (Mar 21, 2020)

Nearly 7000 more confirmed cases and nearly 800 more deaths from COVID-19 in Italy since yesterday.

Italy is by far the most hit country with this virus 

The effects of Italy's lockdown simply can't take effect fast enough 

DAMN


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 22, 2020)

Well, Louisiana saw a steep jump today. About 3,200 tests have been completed. The number of positive infections jumped in 24 hours from 584 to 763, and deaths from 14 to 20. 

Part of the steep climb I conjecture is because Friday and Saturday Louisiana started drive-thru testing for healthcare workers and law enforcement exhibiting symptoms.  That’s the concerning part. Southeast Louisiana’s health system is days from being overburdened and health care workers may be starting to become ill.

The state has their own map that is pretty active as well as keeping twice daily number updates.








						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 22, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Spain's numbers (deaths) are now up:
> 
> From 767 - 1002 - 1326, over the past three days. *This is pure conjecture but in some places, if the infection began in closed spaces (apartment blocks) and spread in places where family is community, it could explain the physical nature of the spread.* In other places, more remote, spread would be contained by simple geography - isolation by way of travel. Either way, it's pretty obvious the death toll in Europe will be high.



Maybe that could help explain why when it comes to the US, New York is definitely taking the brunt of this. They had over 8,000 confirmed cases last time I looked, far more than any other state. Could the high number be because the city is so densely populated? (apartments, people living on top of each other, etc.) 



lexluthermiester said:


> This could be part of the equation.
> 
> Estimations, depending on where you look, are anywhere from *3 weeks to 10 weeks*. This means that the infected likely don't know it because they are asymptomatic and will not show symptoms for perhaps a month or more.



Where are you getting 10 weeks from? Both the US CDC and the WHO say the incubation period is anywhere from *1 to 14 days*, with 5 days being the average. That's 2 weeks, not 3, and quite a difference from 10 weeks


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 22, 2020)

7 new cases in Alaska, 21 total. Two are from travel to the lower 48 states. The other 5 aren't related to travel.









						DHSS announces seven new cases of COVID-19 in Alaska
					

The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services announced on Saturday, March 21st that seven new cases have been detected for COVID-19.




					www.ktuu.com


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 22, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Maybe that could help explain why when it comes to the US, New York is definitely taking the brunt of this. They had over 8,000 confirmed cases last time I looked, far more than any other state. Could the high number be because the city is so densely populated? (apartments, people living on top of each other, etc.)
> 
> 
> 
> Where are you getting 10 weeks from? Both the US CDC and the WHO say the incubation period is anywhere from *1 to 14 days*, with 5 days being the average. That's 2 weeks, not 3, and quite a difference from 10 weeks



Not everyone is infected at the same time so there is a spread and if you dont lock down until the last groups is past incubation, it can easily start all
over again.

10 weeks, 12 weeks... I think its a realistic scenario and even after that time we probably should still do our part to minimize risk...


----------



## HTC (Mar 22, 2020)

Yesterday @ 9:21 AM GMT, Spain had 1093 deaths:






Today, @ 11:38 AM GMT, Spain has 1725 deaths:





Granted: Spain updated their numbers AFTER i posted the pic showing those 1093 deaths, but still ... if left unchecked, Spain could rapidly get to Italy's numbers 

MONSTER DAMN 

Portugal's numbers have not yet been updated since yesterday: as shown in the pic, they stand @ 1280 known cases, with 12 deaths and 5 recovered. Considering the total population we have (over 10 million people) but #20 in the world for confirmed cases ... this does NOT bode well


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 22, 2020)

HTC said:


> Yesterday @ 9:21 AM GMT, Spain had 1093 deaths:
> 
> View attachment 148881
> 
> ...



Careful now. You are forgetting the element of time. Each country started testing and responding at a different time so they will also have their curve in a different time frame. There are also differences between the quality of testing and counting.

Just keep calm and minimize risk. Nothing more you can do to support your country atm.


----------



## sepheronx (Mar 22, 2020)

At least other nations are sending Virologists and equipment to help Italy.


----------



## HTC (Mar 22, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Careful now. You are forgetting the element of time. *Each country started testing and responding at a different time so they will also have their curve in a different time frame. There are also differences between the quality of testing and counting.*
> 
> Just keep calm and minimize risk. Nothing more you can do to support your country atm.



True.

EDIT

Update to Portugal's numbers was just released by authorities: 1600 cases, with 14 deaths and 5 recovered.


----------



## P4-630 (Mar 22, 2020)

Update today: The Netherlands as of today: 4204 infected total, 179 died (age 59~97).


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 22, 2020)

Overnight Louisiana inched up from 763 to 837. Deaths are still at 20. It is so far, the smallest 12 hour increase here.

As I suspected yesterday, the increase of testing, mostly on healthcare and first responders is responsible for the sharp increase in cases yesterday:


			Louisiana coronavirus test results pour in, and positive results top 800 | Coronavirus | nola.com


----------



## HTC (Mar 22, 2020)

Despite the update from Italy still being a bad one, with 5560 new cases, 651 more deaths but 952 recovered, i believe Italy's lockdown measures are *FINALLY* starting to take effect because it's the 1st time the numbers are *SMALLER* than the day before, instead of a substantial increase like all the days before.

EDIT

USA is rising quite rapidly: over 5000 new cases reported in the last 10 minutes.

DAMN 

EDIT #2

1000 more new cases in USA just now: it seriously does NOT look good 

EDIT #3

Something went wrong with the number of USA new cases because they dropped by over 4000: no idea what happened.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 22, 2020)

Let's keep proper perspective. The USA has a population of over 320,000,000. These are not surprising numbers. In fact I was expecting much more.

On the good news side of things, Italy now has much more recovered cases than deaths! I say that is a good sign.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 22, 2020)

HTC said:


> 1000 more new cases in USA just now: it seriously does NOT look good


I'm wondering if we'll ever get the spread contained before or after a vaccine is hopefully found. I try to stay to updated on how it's going but then prefer not to look at how bad it's turning out. Mostly trying to keep an eye on Alaska, and where family is the majority in Michigan, and my one aunt/uncle in California on my step dad's side.


----------



## HTC (Mar 22, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Let's keep proper perspective. The USA has a population of over 320,000,000. These are not surprising numbers. In fact I was expecting much more.
> 
> *On the good news side of things, Italy now has much more recovered cases than deaths! I say that is a good sign.*



Well: it appears there's been some cross communication because the reported new case numbers for USA just dropped by over 4000. Better edit, AGAIN, my previous post.

You are right.


----------



## Flanker (Mar 23, 2020)

Coronavirus: What will alert level 4 mean for NZ?
					

New Zealand will move to Covid-19 alert level 4 in 48 hours.




					www.nzherald.co.nz
				




102 cases in New Zealand. I doubt our healthcare system can deal with an outbreak at all


----------



## Space Lynx (Mar 23, 2020)

Can someone explain to me what the recovered number means in these graphs? I thought vast majority of people that get it auto recover within 14 days, so why I even have that on the graph? and if not, why is the quarantine only listed as 14 days...


----------



## Flanker (Mar 23, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Can someone explain to me what the recovered number means in these graphs? I thought vast majority of people that get it auto recover within 14 days, so why I even have that on the graph? and if not, why is the quarantine only listed as 14 days...


It's probably different in some regions, but generally it means they are tested negative after being confirmed to have been infected.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 23, 2020)

Now were up to 32 in Alaska, 7 more in Anchorage, 1 in Mat-Su/Brough, and one in Juneau.



> According to DHSS, one of the Anchorage cases was travel-related outside of Alaska. The remaining cases are not known to be travel related at this time.
> 
> “At least two of the new Anchorage cases that we are investigating have no clearly identified contact with a confirmed case,” said Dr. Joe McLaughlin, Alaska’s State Epidemiologist. “This indicates that community transmission of COVID-19 appears to be occurring in the Anchorage area.”



Community spread in the Anchorage area includes where I am at. I think I'll be digging out one of the N95 face masks from in the garage to wear too work on Tuesday since I'm in contact with the general public. If the company doesn't tolerate me wearing the mask then I'm out. It'll hurt me in the financial sense but I'd rather be protected.

I feel bad for my one aunt in Jackson, MI. She's a bit younger than my Mom but old age puts her at disadvantage.









						10 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed by DHSS, security heightened at JBER
					

The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services confirmed 10 new cases of COVID-19 in three Alaska communities, and JBER has declared a public health emergency and implemented a series of security and public health measures to mitigate the spread of coronavirus.




					www.ktuu.com


----------



## HTC (Mar 23, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Can someone explain to me what the recovered number means in these graphs? I thought vast majority of people that get it auto recover within 14 days, so why I even have that on the graph? and if not, why is the quarantine only listed as 14 days...



Dunno about other countries but, over here in Portugal, a COVID-19 patient is only considered cured after having two separate tests, 72 hours apart from each other, coming back negative.

Currently, we have 1600 confirmed cases, of which 169 are hospitalized, with 41 of those in ICUs: this means 1431 of the cases are people being watched @ their respective homes because they exibit only mild symptoms, and are under quarantine for the duration of the infection, until being considered cured.

This is assuming the 1600 number is the CURRENT number of cases and not the TOTAL number since the beginning of the outbreak, otherwise that 1431 is actually lower because it doesn't account for 14 dead nor 5 recovered.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 23, 2020)

Infected -> Recovered OR Dead

When it's truly over, there won't be any infection left, just recovered and dead.

Even if someone test positive, they may never have any symptoms because their immune system fought it off.  14 days without symptoms is an automatic recovered because they're believed to no longer be infectious.


----------



## HTC (Mar 23, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Infected -> Recovered OR Dead
> 
> When it's truly over, there won't be any infection left, just recovered and dead.
> 
> Even if someone test positive, they may never have any symptoms because their immune system fought it off.  *14 days without symptoms is an automatic recovered because they're believed to no longer be infectious.*



Isn't that a seriously BAD gamble?


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 23, 2020)

The thing that's throwing me for a loop about this whole thing is, here in the US, testing is only being done for people who display symptoms, are older, or have compromised immune systems. I get that. What I don't get, however, is...let's say "Bob" gets what he believes to be a normal cold. He's feverish, coughing, gets headaches. Still, he doesn't want to take any chances and asks his doctor for a COVID-19 test. The problem is, "Bob" is unable to trace his contacts back before he got sick, so even though he's showing symptoms of what may or may not be COVID-19, his doctor refuses to "waste" a test on what very well may be "just a cold".  

BUT THERE'S NO WAY TO TRULY RULE OUT COVID-19 WITHOUT GETTING TESTED! More tests need to become available so that EVERYONE who so much as has a cough or any of the other symptoms is able to get tested -- and treated -- accordingly.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

HTC said:


> Isn't that a seriously BAD gamble?



Its an economical gamble, at least in part. You can't go around testing the entire population continuously.

If you really think you are going to get your test done on request you've got another thing coming. Especially because symptoms are similar to a common cold. Not happening. Imagine the cost of it. We don't want to waste that much time and effort testing the vast majority of negatives. The net effect is also non existant. The moment you walk out the doctor's door you could have been infected by someone else.

That is why I am also saying these lockdowns are not going to be over anytime soon. The most effective way to let this die out is to work from both ends; minimize risk for the vast majority with mild or 'unnoticed' status (Or may not have anything at all), trace the big infection sources and treat the severe cases. This allows us to prolong the status quo and not push healthcare systems over the edge, until we have a long term solution / vaccine. Or lacking a vaccine, we might need to prolong reduced social life for several years to build herd immunity, slowly allowing larger parts of the populace to get back to normal life. The latter is still not preferable though. All things considered its clear that we are going to have to accept this virus exists in our lives and we need to take measures to combat it long term.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 23, 2020)

Why is it so hard for people to stay home?

Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.

If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Why is it so hard for people to stay home?
> 
> Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.
> 
> If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.



Its clear you don't have kids


----------



## sepheronx (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Why is it so hard for people to stay home?
> 
> Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.
> 
> If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.



Some of us like myself still have to go to work.  Without people like myself and my coworker who works in a small office, a lot of the logistics for various stores will not operate and thus people cannot obtain food from the stores if they lack food and other necessities.  And there are a ton of people like this.

As for those who are still traveling (there was a couple here in Canada that went to Peru on vacation on March 11 when the outbreak was already hitting hard), they are just hurting themselves and others due to their gluttony.



Vayra86 said:


> Its clear you don't have kids



We take our kids for a quick walk around the neighborhood as barely anyone is outside anyway.  We just tell them not to touch anything.


----------



## Space Lynx (Mar 23, 2020)

Folding@home reaches 470 petaflops in computing power primarily simulating COVID-19 proteins
					

A week and a half ago I wrote a little piece about the Folding@Home project. I am happy to report that many gurus have joined the team and that we're moving 24 Million points per day at the moment, h...




					www.guru3d.com
				




470 petaflops working on covid-19 protein folding, amazing stuff!


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 23, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Folding@home reaches 470 petaflops in computing power primarily simulating COVID-19 proteins
> 
> 
> A week and a half ago I wrote a little piece about the Folding@Home project. I am happy to report that many gurus have joined the team and that we're moving 24 Million points per day at the moment, h...
> ...












						Folding@home | Statistics
					

Folding@home Statistics




					stats.foldingathome.org
				




Edit: There was this back on the 16th I missed.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239629911310192640


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> If you need some physical activity, *get* exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.


You say get, how do you get if you stay home?

I found out I'm essential, so I still have a job.  And kids.  And a wife that is not essential, except to our family.

Keeping the kids occupied is the really tough part.  During the week, I am dad...because I work weekends.  In fact, just got home from work.  Besides the drunks getting off the roads, and the schools closed, it seems nothing really has changed here.


----------



## HTC (Mar 23, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its an economical gamble, at least in part. You can't go around testing the entire population continuously.
> 
> *If you really think you are going to get your test done on request you've got another thing coming. Especially because symptoms are similar to a common cold. Not happening. Imagine the cost of it.* We don't want to waste that much time and effort testing the vast majority of negatives. The net effect is also non existant. The moment you walk out the doctor's door you could have been infected by someone else.
> 
> That is why I am also saying these lockdowns are not going to be over anytime soon. The most effective way to let this die out is to work from both ends; minimize risk for the vast majority with mild or 'unnoticed' status (Or may not have anything at all), trace the big infection sources and treat the severe cases. This allows us to prolong the status quo and not push healthcare systems over the edge, until we have a long term solution / vaccine. Or lacking a vaccine, we might need to prolong reduced social life for several years to build herd immunity, slowly allowing larger parts of the populace to get back to normal life. The latter is still not preferable though. All things considered its clear that we are going to have to accept this virus exists in our lives and we need to take measures to combat it long term.



It's quite possible the cost of NOT DOING IT will be far FAR greater.

Why do you think it's so hard to stop this virus from spreading? Because the majority of those that spread it, not being symptomatic, don't realize they're infected to begin with. That's why *i believe* that testing ONLY those with symptoms is a flawed approach. Will the cost of generalizing testing be HUGE? It will be ASTRONOMICAL but the cost of not doing it could, and very likely WILL, be much higher.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 23, 2020)

HTC said:


> It's quite possible the cost of NOT DOING IT will be far FAR greater.
> 
> Why do you think it's so hard to stop this virus from spreading? Because the majority of those that spread it, not being symptomatic, don't realize they're infected to begin with. That's why *i believe* that testing ONLY those with symptoms is a flawed approach. Will the cost of generalizing testing be HUGE? It will be ASTRONOMICAL but the cost of not doing it could, and very likely WILL, be much higher.


We can't afford astronomical. Not for this. In OR, as of 1100 hrs yesterday, they tested almost 3k people that were negative.  Why where they tested?  Do the symptoms they have, represent a different virus that is harming people? Clearly, yes.  Is that/those virus causing a hospital stay?  Not sure, but does it matter?  No, someone in need of a test because of an illness that tests negative for motherfucking COVID-19 is still in need.  From what I know, the criteria for getting tested is quite high, and other tests have to come back negative, in order to order the corona test.  Those negative test subjects are still in a mess, no matter if + or -


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 23, 2020)

There is only one statistic that can be regarded as reliable (assuming govt. transparency) and that is the number of deaths. The other thing to consider, mathematically, is that the mortality rate is likely even across continents. Therefore, with an assumed rate of 1-2%, multiply deaths by 100 to get a very rough number of infected.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

HTC said:


> It's quite possible the cost of NOT DOING IT will be far FAR greater.
> 
> Why do you think it's so hard to stop this virus from spreading? Because the majority of those that spread it, not being symptomatic, don't realize they're infected to begin with. That's why *i believe* that testing ONLY those with symptoms is a flawed approach. Will the cost of generalizing testing be HUGE? It will be ASTRONOMICAL but the cost of not doing it could, and very likely WILL, be much higher.



*Every *approach is flawed and its a choice of evils. That was the point. There is a tipping point at which we are going to accept a percentage of deaths that are going to be extremely costly to avoid otherwise. It sounds harsh, and that's what it is. Such is life. This is what survival of the fittest looks like, in a modern society. Its a matter of cost.

Its the same thing as 'who do you send to an IC'. There are more considerations. A lot of elderly people die and never reach ICs because hospitalizing them would already push them over the edge or the life they'd have left after recovery is barely even existant. That is the sort of choices and the scale upon which decisions are taken. I know that in Italy and Spain the healthcare system keeps treating even if the life expectancy is minimal at best. We don't do that here in NL. Different approach and its likely the southern EU nations will be forced into much more painful choices for not doing the same. Its part of the reason those healthcare systems went straight into overdrive and basically just cracked. Its already happening that relatives can't even visit their dying loved ones. Another side effect is that you get a flood of patients you won't ever stop and the net output of your healthcare and IC quality goes down rapidly.

Some number from over here: over 80% of the Corona patients never see an IC. That is, 'severe, should hospitalize' patients. They already have such a condition that an IC treatment would not benefit them overall. We conclude it is better to keep those beds available for younger or healthier people, always in consultation with family/relatives and patient. Fact based... Harsh, but fact based.

But let's share something optimistic, too









						COVID-19 HPC Consortium
					

The COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium is a private-public effort to bring free compute time and resources on their world-class machines.




					covid19-hpc.mybluemix.net
				



@AleksandarK worth a news item perhaps? I would think so


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 23, 2020)

54thvoid,
I agree.  But, was the decedent tested before or after death?  Will that skew the numbers?  Ehh, let's not go there, here.

I am an accident/incident investigator, so these questions have to come up.

Edit:
I differ a bit......the demographics don't support your 100 multiple.  I had that discussion with a coworker tonight.  We set a delineation of 55 years old.  Starting at 25, ending at 85.  Guess which 30 year group had more deaths?

But, which group represents the bigger population?  I don't know


----------



## ratirt (Mar 23, 2020)

I still go to work. So far I didn't get infected. I take all the precautions but you never know. 
Anyway the covid-19  is not like flu. It is totally different and denying it saying it is not extremely dangerous (doctor admit it is extremely dangerous) is foolish. Besides, if you get the covid-19 you can get sick again and your lungs look like a used up strainer. So I think getting it spreading freely because it's just the way it is is simply put stupid and people thinking that do not care and have no responsibility whatsoever. Good luck with that.


----------



## Dinnercore (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Why is it so hard for people to stay home?
> 
> Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.
> 
> If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.


Because I get forced to work? Because no business or boss is taking this serious? I could in theory do all my work from home, but my company does not allow that so I have to go there. Many of us in the office have colds and all the symptoms but hey its germany you gotta wörk wörk wörk....

All the numbers from my country are faked anyway, don´t believe the bullshit that we have some miracle healthcare that no one dies. I have someone in my family who just died due to an infection and they refused to test her for the virus. Actually no one in my whole area is allowed to be tested, you call them and tell them you had contact to a confirmed case and they tell you off. Absolut madness right now.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

sepheronx said:


> We take our kids for a quick walk around the neighborhood as barely anyone is outside anyway.  We just tell them not to touch anything.



Yep... walks, a walk in the park. I'm quite lucky because I live in a rural area and its not too crowded here. Lots of opportunities to go outdoors and still keep healthy distance from everyone. But in the cities... last saturday in The Hague apparently they still had markets open... And those were overcrowded, as in, you're literally pushing through people, as is usual for those places.

But at some point you're out of walks, too  Staying inside is a big big challenge for all of us, or at least, most of us. I'm quite fine living like a hermit... my direct relatives are not. So in a sense, I'm also not entirely happy with it... funny how that works. Its also 'funny'... or interesting; to see and experience my own and other people's struggle having to adjust to this new temporary reality. It affects so many things in so many little ways.



Dinnercore said:


> Because I get forced to work? Because no business or boss is taking this serious? I could in theory do all my work from home, but my company does not allow that so I have to go there. Many of us in the office have colds and all the symptoms but hey its germany you gotta wörk wörk wörk....
> 
> All the numbers from my country are faked anyway, don´t believe the bullshit that we have some miracle healthcare that no one dies. I have someone in my family who just died due to an infection and they refused to test her for the virus. Actually no one in my whole area is allowed to be tested, you call them and tell them you had contact to a confirmed case and they tell you off. Absolut madness right now.



Make your own choices man, don't be a fool and follow the masses in that sense. Fact based governance says you minimize contact. If you're not in a vital line of work, just stay at home and give them a polite middle finger. It will blow over and you won't get fired. And if you do, just watch those legal tables turn in your favor, I have zero doubt about that. Any employer that does not actively minimize risk right now, is directly trespassing into ethical territory, there is a social obligation now to adhere.

Trust me. Do it. I was meaning to say the same to @rtwjunkie  as well and his situation is arguably much worse, as his wife has a higher risk of complications. This is the time you need to start using common sense and think for yourself. You only have one opportunity: before you've also caught it. And mind: you never truly know if you did.


----------



## HTC (Mar 23, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> *Every approach is flawed and its a choice of evils.* That was the point. There is a tipping point at which we are going to accept a percentage of deaths that are going to be extremely costly to avoid otherwise. It sounds harsh, and that's what it is. Such is life.
> 
> But let's share something optimistic, too
> 
> ...



I wasn't talking about deaths, even though that's the ultimate price.

The way i see it:

- test EVERYONE for temperature, and i mean EVERYONE, as that's much easier: do it MULTIPLE TIMES A DAY
- test those found to have an elevated temperature for COVID-19: obviously, not everyone with a high temperature will have COVID-19 but, and *as i've read*,* almost all COVID-19 infected patients DO have a fever even if mild*, so it's a good place to start triaging
- quarantine those that have higher temperature immediately until COVID-19 result is know, as that takes longer to ascertain
- release those not infected and leave in quarantine the rest or move them to whatever place designated for it

To do it like this will require a LOT MORE COVID-19 TESTING than what is being done right now and it WILL BE PRICEY.

As for the cost of not doing it this way:

- lockdowns
- economical disruptions due to the lockdowns
- associated costs of all of the above

The cost of this is way WAY higher than the testing, as i described it.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

HTC said:


> Well: it appears there's been some cross communication because the reported new case numbers for USA just dropped by over 4000. Better edit, AGAIN, my previous post.


This is why I keep defaulting to the Johns Hopkins site in the OP. They seem to be going out of their way to make sure information is actually verified before posting the numbers.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

Armchair pandemic Dr's...everyone here has the answer! Lol.

Please, people, read those posts for the entertainment factor and source facts from reputable locations and people.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Armchair pandemic Dr's...everyone here has the answer! Lol.
> 
> Please, people, read those posts for the entertainment factor and source facts from reputable locations and people.



All of the facts I"ve presented here are directly from our national health institutes and directly related health specialists, for one.

If the source is questionable I won't place it in this topic.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> There is only one statistic that can be regarded as reliable (assuming govt. transparency) and that is the number of deaths. The other thing to consider, mathematically, is that the mortality rate is likely even across continents. Therefore, with an assumed rate of 1-2%, multiply deaths by 100 to get a very rough number of infected.


I was about to say most of this. Well stated.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

I'm not pointing anyone out specifically... but I've seen some poor advice being dolled out in the several threads covering it.

Be careful for those using this and other threads as sources of info. 


Edit:


> The other thing to consider, mathematically, is that *the mortality rate is likely even across continents.* Therefore, with an assumed rate of 1-2%, multiply deaths by 100 to get a very rough number of infected


How can that be true, actually? Mortality rate seems to have a lot to do with how many in a given area have it and if the critical cases overwhelm the hospitals (among other variables). Many maps show this information and with that, we can see the death rates vary signficantly/several %.


----------



## HTC (Mar 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> There is only one statistic that can be regarded as reliable (assuming govt. transparency) and that is the number of deaths. The other thing to consider, mathematically, is that the mortality rate is likely even across continents. *Therefore, with an assumed rate of 1-2%, multiply deaths by 100 to get a very rough number of infected.*


There's a problem with that: the countries where hospitals are being heavily strained, have a WAY HIGHER fatality rate than they would have if not strained so, that way wont work for those countries:

- China, early on
- Italy, currently
- Spain during this week, or so Spanish authorities say

There may be others i'm not aware of.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 23, 2020)

@EarthDog @HTC 
See my edit a few posts ago.  You guys bring up good points, but the demographics also skew the percentages.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

1freedude said:


> @EarthDog @HTC
> See my edit a few posts ago.  You guys bring up good points, but the demographics also skew the percentages.


Yes. Theres more to it than just napkin math... I think that is our point.


----------



## Frick (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Why is it so hard for people to stay home?
> 
> Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.
> 
> If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.



I'm not ill and I can't do my job from home.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 23, 2020)

Frick said:


> I'm not ill and I can't do my job from home.


But, is your position vital (essential) to the well being of your nation.  You don't have to answer.
If not, then do as Vayra86 says...a polite middle finger.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 23, 2020)

My point wasn't put across as I intended. What I mean is, the virus affects humans equally, your country doesn't matter. But the demographic, as pointed out, does. So an elderly nation will have higher mortality.


----------



## HTC (Mar 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> My point wasn't put across as I intended. What I mean is, the virus affects humans equally, your country doesn't matter. But the demographic, as pointed out, does. So an elderly nation will have higher mortality.



So far, the evidence points overwhelmingly in that direction.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

HTC said:


> So far, the evidence points overwhelmingly in that direction.








						Median Age / Countries of the World
					

Statistics and map about the median age of the world.




					world.bymap.org
				











						One chart shows different countries' current coronavirus death rates, based on the known number of cases and deaths
					

A country's coronavirus death rate can depend on how widely it's testing people. As of Wednesday, March 18, Italy's death rate was the highest.




					www.google.com
				




I see italy up there... not sure about the others.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> My point wasn't put across as I intended. What I mean is, the virus affects humans equally, your country doesn't matter. But the demographic, as pointed out, does. So an elderly nation will have higher mortality.


In that case I have to disagree. The overwhelming evidence emerging shows very clearly that this virus, like any other, affects different people differently. This is due to differing levels of individual immuno-response, blood types and body chemistries. There are also environmental factors that seem to be affecting vulnerability.


----------



## Frick (Mar 23, 2020)

1freedude said:


> But, is your position vital (essential) to the well being of your nation.  You don't have to answer.
> If not, then do as Vayra86 says...a polite middle finger.



In a very broad sense, it is. I'm pretty essential for my workplace, and small companies (like the one I'm working for) is essential to the nation for sure.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> In that case I have to disagree. The overwhelming evidence emerging shows very clearly that this virus, like any other, affects different people differently. This is due to differing levels of individual immuno-response, blood types and body chemistries. There are also environmental factors that seem to be affecting vulnerability.



Yes. But take a base human construct. The virus affects it with the same attack parameters. It's a given scenario that individual differences create an uneven playing field. But those individual genetics are spread across the globe. Individual countries provide the curiosity of demographical factors.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Yes. But take a base human construct. The virus affects it with the same attack parameters. It's a given scenario that individual differences create an uneven playing field. But those individual genetics are spread across the globe. Individual countries provide the curiosity of demographical factors.


Ah, I see what you're saying.


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Mar 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Yes. But take a base human construct. The virus affects it with the same attack parameters. It's a given scenario that individual differences create an uneven playing field. But those individual genetics are spread across the globe. Individual countries provide the curiosity of demographical factors.


Sorry I agree but quoted you here with a separate related question.
I wouldn't normally link Tom's but








						Folding@Home Now More Powerful Than World's Top 7 Supercomputers, Combined
					

The fight against coronavirus goes nuclear




					www.tomshardware.com
				



The Folding@home network is at 7 petaflops and we have not done anything to increase our team output, would you and the editorial team consider a front page add for our folding team.

The above network is at 7petaflops equaling the top 7 supercomputers combined, not bad but could we not beat all top ten?.


----------



## HTC (Mar 23, 2020)

Portugal's update: 2060 cases confirmed, with 23 deaths and 13 recovered. An increase in 460 cases, 9 deaths and 8 recovered since yesterday. I'm also worried about the number they say is waiting for results: over 1000, currently.

Portugal has setup several testing points throughout the country but only those REFERENCED by either the national medical phone line or by hospitals / health centers are ALLOWED to take the test, meaning those waiting for the results have a "good" chance of being infected, thus severely inflating the country's numbers.

Over 200 medical personnel are infected right now, between doctors, nurses, other workers.

NOT GOOD


----------



## sepheronx (Mar 23, 2020)

Here in Alberta they arent testing all of us.  I just called our health link to tell them of this tightening in my throat.  They asked me some questions about covid 19 and if I have any of the symptoms.  I got asthma so yes I have shortness of breath and rather tight feeling in chest.  They said to self isolate.  I told them I still work so I would like to get tested for Covid 19.  They refused saying its only for those they figure they have it.

So our numbers may be much larger here and we arent aware of it.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

sepheronx said:


> So our numbers may be much larger here and we arent aware of it.


Story of the day/week/month... not new!


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 23, 2020)

Louisiana has decided to stop reporting twice a day, and instead release numbers at Noon each day. I’ll share the update after it is released. 

On the plus side, I’m already more productive teleworking. The anxiety I was having every day caused by coworkers that would stop by to either ask questions or talk, all ignoring proper distancing, is gone.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 23, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its clear you don't have kids



You can try to keep them occupied with TV, video games, in-door social games. Kids seem to like that Fortnite game.



1freedude said:


> You say get, how do you get if you stay home?
> 
> I found out I'm essential, so I still have a job.  And kids.  And a wife that is not essential, except to our family.
> 
> Keeping the kids occupied is the really tough part.  During the week, I am dad...because I work weekends.  In fact, just got home from work.  Besides the drunks getting off the roads, and the schools closed, it seems nothing really has changed here.



Order online and set it up yourself. The kids might enjoy watching you.



Frick said:


> I'm not ill and I can't do my job from home.



If you want to stay "not ill", stay home. Unless getting to your workplace and the job requires 0 interaction with other people.



Dinnercore said:


> Because I get forced to work? Because no business or boss is taking this serious? I could in theory do all my work from home, but my company does not allow that so I have to go there. Many of us in the office have colds and all the symptoms but hey its germany you gotta wörk wörk wörk....
> 
> All the numbers from my country are faked anyway, don´t believe the bullshit that we have some miracle healthcare that no one dies. I have someone in my family who just died due to an infection and they refused to test her for the virus. Actually no one in my whole area is allowed to be tested, you call them and tell them you had contact to a confirmed case and they tell you off. Absolut madness right now.



Show them the middle finger. The numbers are much worse. Not everybody reports that he's sick.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> You can try to keep them occupied with TV, video games, in-door social games. Kids seem to like that Fortnite game.



Hehe at 1,5 years of age the attention span lasts about 2 episodes of Miffy... Luckily I've been working on a playground in the garden. Mostly done


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> If you want to stay "not ill", stay home. Unless getting to your workplace and the job requires 0 interaction with other people.


Actually, I want to get it and let my immune system work through the virus and then that will be that.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Actually, I want to get it and let my immune system work through it and then that will be that.



There is 13% you won't make it, and there is a chance to catch it twice. If you recover, immunity doesn't less for long.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 23, 2020)

The numbers are in for Louisiana. We are up to 1,172 and 34 deaths. Approximately 7,000 tests have been conducted. So far Louisiana has 0 recovery cases.

Of those cases, 981 are in the New Orleans metropolitan area.









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## sepheronx (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> There is 13% you won't make it, and there is a chance to catch it twice. If you recover, immunity doesn't less for long.


Depends on his age. I fathom that 13% is grossly over exaggerated.  Unless lex is an old man, I think he will get through it.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 23, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> The numbers are in for Louisiana. We are up to 1,172 and 34 deaths. Approximately 7,000 tests have been conducted. So far Louisiana has 0 recovery cases.
> 
> Of those cases, 981 are in the New Orleans metropolitan area.
> 
> ...



Thats you overtaking my country. Our FM has said we're about to hit a steep curve though...


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> There is 13% you won't make it, and there is a chance to catch it twice. If you recover, immunity doesn't less for long.


Wrong and duh.

There is a 0.11% chance of death. Not sure where your silly number came from but my calculation is based on the raw numbers available and the mortality rate observed in the United States where I live.

Secondary infection at a later date is expected and presumed.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> There is 13% you won't make it, and there is a chance to catch it twice. If you recover, immunity doesn't less for long.


?????????

A bit over 4% is the overall average of deaths per confirmed case...



rtwjunkie said:


> I doubt we will. Our people are so stupid, that I walked by our lunch room and it full of people sitting round the tables laughing and eating like it’s business as usual.  They think social distancing is 6 inches, not feet. SMH. Idiots.


Let's be clear, some STATES are doing this, however the feds are have not yet done this. Don't mind us, we're on italy's path........ lol

EDIT: Wow... that is an old post I just responded to, lol...wut?



lexluthermiester said:


> Wrong and duh.
> 
> There is a 0.11% chance of death. Not sure where your silly number came from but my calculation is based on the raw numbers available and the mortality rate observed in the United States.
> 
> Secondary infection at a later date is expected and presumed.


That is true this second. However, once US hospitals start to get overrun and the cases continue to explode over the next several weeks, that value will certainly be higher. Look at the overall number... over 4%....... look at Italy...over 10% because their system is overwhelmed. Things aren't getting better now...


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Look at the overall number... over 4%....... look at Italy...over 10% because their system is overwhelmed. Things aren't getting better now...


True, but that's world wide. I am limiting my calculation to what is known for the region I live in. Specifically, my area in the US is one that currently has less than 200 cases for an 800 mile radius. There still is no confirmed cases in my city an only 4 in the surrounding communities. Nearby the numbers increase but not dramatically. When I calculate for whole of the US, that number doesn't change much because of the population of the nation. The mortality numbers in North America are simply not an alarming number, especially when compared to other lethal illnesses. However, the progression is an ongoing development.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> True, but that's world wide. I am limiting my calulation to what is known for the region I live in. Specifically, my area in the US is one that currently has less than 200 cases for an 800 mile radius. There still is no confirmed cases in my city an only 4 in the surrounding communities. Nearby the numbers increase but not dramatically.



Oh...I was just talking overall numbers since that was the context prior to your post. 

....whatever hole that 13% value came from, lol..


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> ....whatever hole that 13% value came from, lol..


Agreed.


----------



## sepheronx (Mar 23, 2020)

Hey, Lex can also become a test subject to see if drugs like anti malaria pills will work 

I threw mine out after I came back from India. Oops


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> When I calculate for whole of the US, that number doesn't change much because of the population of the nation.


Respectfully, I don't much care for everyone's napkin numbers. The thing is, the only FACTS we have is what you've provided in the first post... # of known cases to deaths. We do not know asymptomatic people, etc. No idea of the total number versus deaths. We have deaths and confirmed cases... which that percent will go up quite a bit before it drops down.

While there are plenty of variables which affect that number, such as age, part of the country, hospital status, etc.... we know that as a whole, the rate is 4%. It could be a lot lower if you live in bumblejunk USA where few cases are, or it could be exponentially higher, say if you live in NYC. So, yay for you... but its hard to follow everyone's BS napkin math... explanations come out later........'oh no, I meant like, if you didn't drink bathwater as a kid and only heard of, but never participated in, the hokie pokie, lol. Forums and people's communication skills... good times.

Honestly, watching people drone on cluelessly has just about fried my patience over it all.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 23, 2020)

Assuming he's in his late 30s, this is when the first body degradation occurs, when every bump causes an injury. There is 13% chance (10-15 to be accurate) of developing some kind of complication with COVID-19. Respiratory most likely. If it won't kill him, the ER bill will - if he doesn't have health insurance. Even if you recover, that kind of complication can mess you up pretty good.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 23, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its an economical gamble, at least in part. You can't go around testing the entire population continuously.



South Korea pretty much is.  They literally are using infrared thermometers to spot check people, last i heard.

Granted, I fact verified that as much as it sounds.



Vayra86 said:


> Its clear you don't have kids



Ah.  KIds.  The other pandemic.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Respectfully, I don't much care for everyone's napkin numbers.


Professionally, I'm a scientist. Numbers are literally my life and I'm pretty good at it.


EarthDog said:


> While there are plenty of variables which affect that number, such as age, part of the country, hospital status, etc.... we know that as a whole, the rate is 4%. It could be a lot lower if you live in bumblejunk USA where few cases are, or it could be exponentially higher, say if you live in NYC. So, yay for you... but its hard to follow everyone's BS napkin math... explanations come out later........'oh no, I meant like, if you didn't drink bathwater as a kid and only heard of, but never participated in, the hokie pokie, lol. Forums and people's communication skills... good times.


Ah, but you are not accounting for ratio of population to actual mortality rate. Take NYC, population versus mortality is not an alarming number and certainly not exponential(this word keeps getting used way out of context). Not even China's number's(if correct) are alarming. Only Italy, Iran and Spain are alarming. Everywhere else is worrisome but not any more serious than the flu.


Regeneration said:


> Assuming he's in his late 30s, this is when the first body degradation occurs, when every bump causes an injury. There is 13% chance (10-15 to be accurate) of developing some kind of complication with COVID-19. Respiratory most likely. If it won't kill him, the ER bill will - if he doesn't have health insurance. Even if you recover, that kind of complication can mess you up pretty good.


First, I'm in my 40's, but am healthy. I've already been tested because I work in a lab that has certain requirements. The doctors gave me a list of information to be aware of and followed up with saying that I am "very low risk" of hospitalization and/or death.

Second, having answered that, you're making a lot of assumptions and nonsense statements. That kind of thing belongs in the thread located in the lounge. Please take them there. This thread is intended for posting factual information and comments based on factual info.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Ah, but you are not accounting for ratio of population to actual mortality rate. Take NYC, population versus mortality is not an alarming number and certainly not exponential(this word keeps getting used way out of context). Not even China's number's(if correct) are alarming. Only Italy, Iran and Spain are alarming. Everywhere else is worrisome but not any more serious than the flu.


Correct, I'm not counting chickens before they hatch... and even acknowledged such. We have no idea how many asymptomatic cases are out there and overall deaths... so napkin math... speculation. 



> Not even China's number's(if correct) are alarming. Only Italy, Iran and Spain are alarming. Everywhere else is worrisome but not any more serious than the flu.


Are you ignoring your own data? You say only italy, iran, and spain are alarming, yet, the US is trending to be worse than italy... how is that not alarming to you, but italy is?

Right now, the number of cases are growing exponentially (growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size). If the US flu's death rate rate is ~0.1% and we're at 4.3% overall for this... 4.3% is what, 43x more than 0.1%, yes?


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Correct, I'm not counting chickens before they hatch... and even acknowledged such. We have no idea how many asymptomatic cases are out there and overall deaths... so napkin math... speculation.
> 
> Are you ignoring your own data? You say only italy, iran, and spain are alarming, yet, the US is trending to be worse than italy... how is that not alarming to you, but italy is?
> 
> Right now, the number of cases are growing exponentially (growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size). If the US flu's death rate rate is ~0.1% and we're at 4.3% overall for this... 4.3% is what, 43x more than 0.1%, yes?



He's a scientist man, he knows best... better than all the virologists in numerous countries apparently. Don't worry its just a phase. Most countries / people have gone through it, not realizing what exponential rate of infection truly means and how it hits a society. Helicopter money...  Its the last you need when medical help is simply just not going to be available. You need IC? Sorry, no beds, and you're not important enough. Or: yes, you can get a bed, but when you get driven in you see somebody else get driven out, that's a life lost to save yours. That's gonna be the message. But, at least its no worse than flu. Right?

Its typical, and I recognize it, and every country that is further into this is saying: look, you have no idea. So Lex: you have no idea, be humble.

Some news from NL.
Partial lockdown of society lengthened to June 1st. Existing measures are now reinforced with fines and strict policing. We are allowed to go out for bare necessities and everything else is strongly discouraged except if you can go to work without infection risk, but if you can stay at home you're supposed to. So basically the wheels keep turning over here, on skeleton crews. I think its a good series of measures and hopefully effective enough. It also gives us the best deck of cards post-crisis, sectors and jobs are hopefully going to remain intact.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> First, I'm in my 40's, but am healthy. I've already been tested because I work in a lab that has certain requirements. The doctors gave me a list of information to be aware of and followed up with saying that I am "very low risk" of hospitalization and/or death.



10-15 percent is considered low-risk. Within the age range, 1 out of 10 will develop some kind of a complication.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Are you ignoring your own data?


Not at all, see below...


EarthDog said:


> the US is trending to be worse than italy


No, it isn't.


EarthDog said:


> how is that not alarming to you?


See below..


EarthDog said:


> the US is trending to be worse than italy


Not when you factor the averages. The US population is much higher than Italy and yet our mortality is a small fraction of theirs. Italy has a population of approx 60,000,000 with a death toll of 6000. The Us has a population of approx 320,000,000 with a death toll of 600(those number current as of the moment of this post). Italy's numbers are nowhere near what I would call alarming, but some would and there is some merit to that viewpoint. The US numbers are alarming only to the panicky and uninformed.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Not when you factor the averages. The US population is much higher than Italy and yet our mortality is a small fraction of theirs. Italy has a population of approx 60,000,000 with a death toll of 6000. The Us has a population of approx 320,000,000 with a death toll of 600(those number current as of the moment of this post). Italy's numbers are nowhere near what I would call alarming, but some would and there is some merit to that viewpoint. The US numbers are alarming only to the panicky and uninformed.



The problem in the US is going to be in the urban areas, I think in the countryside its going to be pretty reasonable to control. The distances are going to work in your favor. But in the cities... expect healthcare systems to topple given the late response. Even if the death toll is low now.

In that sense it really is not easy to compare numbers. Italy is also pretty densely populated and the distances between hospitals are easier... but they just have all of them overcrowded. What you can expect in US cities is mini Italy a few dozen times over. Not a pretty sight and its going to put a massive strain on things. What you need to consider with those numbers is the calculation of 'IC capacity in urban area X versus population in urban area X, versus the typical percent of the population that tends to get infected. You're quickly going to be talking about a few hundred thousand of them, now take the typical 15-18% with severe symptoms and in need of IC bed and respiratory aid...

In the Netherlands we had the biggest outbreak in a southern province, Brabant. The hospitals there got filled to (expanded!) capacity within a week, and IC patients were moved to hospitals up north to restore the balance. Moving IC patients is no easy matter... But a drive from top to bottom over here takes you only 3 hours. Now note, we are still 'in control'... but death toll still rises even if the curve seems to start slowing a little bit.



rtwjunkie said:


> Exactly. Here in Louisiana we the highest growth rate, and is dutifully following the same rise as Italy. I’d say that is pretty bad.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



There you go example one.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 23, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> You say only italy, iran, and spain are alarming, yet, the US is trending to be worse than italy... how is that not alarming to you, but italy is?


Exactly. Here in Louisiana we have the highest growth rate, and is dutifully following the same rise as Italy. I’d say that is pretty bad.








						Louisiana goes on lockdown, has fastest growth of COVID-19 worldwide
					

As long as coronavirus continues to run rampant through the country, there will be no sports for the forseeable future.




					lsutigerswire.usatoday.com


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> The problem in the US is going to be in the urban areas, I think in the countryside its going to be pretty reasonable to control.


That remains to be seen.


Vayra86 said:


> In that sense it really is not easy to compare numbers.


But that is a subjective point of view. I am looking only at the raw numbers and how they are evolving, example below...


rtwjunkie said:


> Exactly. Here in Louisiana we have the highest growth rate, and is dutifully following the same rise as Italy. I’d say that is pretty bad.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Please understand I mean no offense or insensitivity and we appreciate your posts. Louisiana's population is approx 4,900,000. According to your article, there are less than 1,000 cases and only 20 deaths statewide. Those numbers are not alarming. They are downright paltry when you compare them to other illnesses that produce deaths in your state.

New York, California and Washington all have higher numbers, but even those numbers do not spell out the need to shut down the nation or world ending disaster. People and governments are greatly over-reacting.

FYI, the tracker at Johns Hopkins now has much more fine-grained details to the numbers, listed by County. Link below and in the OP;





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That remains to be seen.
> 
> But that is a subjective point of view. I am looking only at the raw numbers and how they are evolving, example below...
> 
> ...



Well all I  can say is, I hope you're gonna be right, but strongly doubt it. This virus doesn't discriminate. Using your own logic: why would the US be any different than countries in the EU? I see no real reasons for it, but I do see reasons for it to turn out worse.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

Time will tell...


----------



## Tomgang (Mar 23, 2020)

A little update from Denmark. Infected are now up to 1450 where 254 are hospitalized and 40 are in respirator with critical symptoms and unfortunately 24 has now passed away.

Danish government has now decided to ramp up tests for COVID-19. A very generous rich man from China has donated a lot of mask and other health care things to Denmark's health care system and we are very grateful for his help as we where about to run out.

Danish government has said today they expect the virus to hit it's max around the end of April and be under control by start of June. I hope as no one know for sure how this will work out.

Only thing is for sure, after this virus we can all deal with a lot of economic mayhem. Lost jobs, companies going bankruptcy and a lot af government dedt. I just joined the unemployment people today, Yeah thank you for that dam virus


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That remains to be seen.
> 
> But that is a subjective point of view. I am looking only at the raw numbers and how they are evolving, example below...
> 
> ...


It’s not total numbers. It is per capita and growth rate. NY may have the sheer numbers, but they don’t have the rapid growth rate we do.  That is fact. And it’s well over 1,000 cases today (1,172 to be exact and 34 deaths).

Don’t misunderstand my response. I’m not mad. I do think apocalypse alarmists are wrong, but I also feel that those who try to minimize this tragedy are going to cause more deaths because they literally think this is nothing at all.

It is better to be fully prepared for war, than to gullibly believe the hostile neighbor won’t surprise attack you.  Hopefully you get the analogy.








						How Louisiana Became Home To The Fastest Growing Rate Of The Coronavirus In The World
					

It is unclear how many Black people in the state have tested positive.




					www.bet.com
				






			https://gov.louisiana.gov/assets/docs/covid/govCV19Brief-2.pdf
		


The graphs use the previous day’s data but you get the idea. I pulled the University link from the article


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> It is better to be fully prepared for war, than to gullibly believe the hostile neighbor won’t surprise attack you. Hopefully you get the analogy.


And of course I agree with you.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 23, 2020)

UK 'lockdown' announced for 3 weeks. All to reduce cases to minimise the admissions to hospital. It's not about preventing deaths from the virus, it's about stopping the medical services being overwhelmed.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> UK 'lockdown' announced for 3 weeks. All to reduce cases to minimise the admissions to hospital. It's not about preventing deaths from the virus, it's about stopping the medical services being overwhelmed.


For reference ATM, the UK's numbers are as follows;
Population(England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)
67,000,000 Approx

Current cases
5,912

Fatalities
336

Recovered
140

My opinion, you folks are doing alright.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> For reference ATM, the UK's numbers are as follows;
> Population(England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)
> 67,000,000 Approx
> 
> ...



The Govt followed the advice of statisticians and medical experts. This is to pre-empt any further acceleration of cases. The really sad thing is (and funny, frankly, considering I'm Scottish) is that I'm worried about my beer intake... my first thought was, 'Can I still buy beer from the beer shop?'


----------



## phanbuey (Mar 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> The Govt followed the advice of statisticians and medical experts. This is to pre-empt any further acceleration of cases. The really sad thing is (and funny, frankly, considering I'm Scottish) is that I'm worried about my beer intake... my first thought was, 'Can I still buy beer from the beer shop?'



Apparently our liquor stores fall under the 'essential' category here (and in NY if my relatives are to be believed) 

Cant buy toilet paper, but can still get beer.


----------



## Ferrum Master (Mar 23, 2020)

phanbuey said:


> Cant buy toilet paper, but can still get beer.



I am more concerned Kenny Rogers kicking the bucket this weekend tho... Damn... Driver 2... it is a part of my childhood.










Good music, remains good music... dare someone to say something else about this tune


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Well all I  can say is, I hope you're gonna be right, but strongly doubt it. This virus doesn't discriminate. Using your own logic: why would the US be any different than countries in the EU? I see no real reasons for it, but I do see reasons for it to turn out worse.


lol, you'd think it's a rorschach test, not math!

Yeah, CURRENTLY basing opinion on total population and current deaths paints an inaccurate picture to me. Only after this is in significant decline is that relevant. That said, knowing in the end this will end up lower per capita is helpful, however that doesnt mean there isnt a precipitous rise before that time. In other words basing how severe this will be by using end-game numbers isn't an accurate way to predict what happens between now and then. The problem is we have no real idea how many will get infected. They say it is 2-3x more contagious than the flu... hopefully our actions of social distancing and shelter in place rules reduce that to less than flu levels. How many 10s of millions (in the US) get the flu each year (3% min, 8% avg, 11% max)? This year, 34 million.... over 20k died (CDC) in this 6 month season (we're winding down now). If we go by the government's acknowledgement of the problem, this is a week and a couple of days old (actual acknowledgement of it being an issue). If we go by 1st in the us, 2 months and a bit of change. Summer could thwart its growth and squash it...or not... or it could and come back...we just dont know. Any way you look at it, at minimum, we have several weeks, if not longer, before this is supposed to peak.

Anyway, time will tell, indeed... I'm not an alarmist (I dont think I come across as one?? If I see the words deep state or bioweapon, or tool for dems vs Republicans I'll blow my stack, lol), but feel like a real time realist with an eye on the big picture...

Edit: I forgot.. in Ohio... on lockdown...haz internet...send gpus for review, plz!


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 23, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Yeah, CURRENTLY basing opinion on total population and current deaths paints an inaccurate picture to me.


ATM we don't have anything better(more accurate), unfortunately.



EarthDog said:


> I'm not an alarmist (I dont think I come across as one??)


You did not.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> ATM we don't have anything better(more accurate), unfortunately.


We do though...the exponential growth of cases....which will overwhelm the system. In NYC.. a week supposedly... deaths start their spike as more deaths come from less dense areas then too. The rate at which we are getting this versus a slowly increasing bed count that will, if experts are correct, never be enough for the initial onslaught. 

Edit: great article, I came across after I posted... https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-ever-away-heres-one-094824995.html



phanbuey said:


> Apparently our liquor stores fall under the 'essential' category here (and in NY if my relatives are to be believed)


Marijuana in Cali is essential too. Not sure about the other recreational states.

PS - I didnt hoard TP... I say nothing about the above...lol


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 23, 2020)

New study suggests how long coronavirus can stay on surfaces
					

The COVID-19 virus can persist in the air and on surfaces for hours, if not days, according to a new study performed by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), CDC, UCLA and Princeton University.




					www.ktuu.com


----------



## HTC (Mar 24, 2020)

Spotted this @ Anandtech Forums, COVID-19, as viewed by a respiratory therapist:









						A report from the coronavirus frontline: "They are essentially drowning in their own blood."
					

"Holy shit, I do not want to catch this and I don’t want anyone I know to catch this."




					www.motherjones.com
				




It's a lot scarier than it seems: DAMN


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 24, 2020)

HTC said:


> Spotted this @ Anandtech Forums, COVID-19, as viewed by a respiratory therapist:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I know, I tried to describe earlier in this thread that it shreds your lungs, and then you drown.  Its bad stuff.


----------



## HTC (Mar 24, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I know, I tried to describe earlier in this thread that it shreds your lungs, and then you drown.  Its bad stuff.



Seeing it described by someone who knows how "normal" diseases do this VS how COVID-19 does it ... it's like he said:



> “I have patients in their early 40s and, yeah, I was kind of shocked. I’m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history, and they are completely wiped out, like they’ve been hit by a truck. This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people. Patients will be on minimal support, on a little bit of oxygen, and then all of a sudden, they go into complete respiratory arrest, shut down and can’t breathe at all.”



Being in the mid 40s myself, frankly, it scares the crap out of me!


----------



## Caring1 (Mar 24, 2020)

I've had similar issues with fluid in my lungs due to chronic heart failure, it's not pleasant and i'm in the high risk category now.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 24, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> People and governments are greatly over-reacting.



I disagree.  A viral infection like this has the potential to be much worse.  Experts know this.  What, you think we like shutting down our economy for fun?  This is no joke.



HTC said:


> Being in the mid 40s myself, frankly, it scares the crap out of me!



I'm in mid 30s and same, really.  Not the best health frankly.  Plus my father...  and being in Washington.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 24, 2020)

The alternative is overwhelmed healthcare systems -> deaths.  It's a lose-lose situation.

There's two confirmed cases in my county of ~20k people.  A lot more are likely to be detected soon as a result of them.


----------



## Prima.Vera (Mar 24, 2020)

Not really accurate for Japan for ex...


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Marijuana in Cali is essential too. Not sure about the other recreational states.
> 
> PS - I didnt hoard TP... I say nothing about the above...lol



Yeah, it was real fun when the govt closed coffeeshops over here. They tried to, at 18.00 two weeks ago. Huge lines at all of them... the next day they were reopened for sale only  Now they are the ONLY recreational venue that is open in the entire country. Goes to show how important they really are. Just minutes after 18.00 that sunday, illegal trade was back in full force. The social purpose of drugs... lol


----------



## Melvis (Mar 24, 2020)

HTC said:


> Spotted this @ Anandtech Forums, COVID-19, as viewed by a respiratory therapist:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I wish I didnt read that now, thats super scary and I know I wont survive if I got the virus and nether will my parents, this is very bad.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 24, 2020)

This is an interesting article about Iran. There are some theories, but there is also known solid known information.








						Why Iran Is Struggling to Contain Its Coronavirus Outbreak
					

The strain Iran faces is likely to be mirrored elsewhere




					time.com
				






HTC said:


> Spotted this @ Anandtech Forums, COVID-19, as viewed by a respiratory therapist:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sorry, that's something I'm not buying into until confirmed by other sources.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 24, 2020)

Map of testing in the US...









						Totals for the US
					

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.




					covidtracking.com


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 24, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> ....
> 
> 
> Sorry, that's something I'm not buying into until confirmed by other sources.


Sorry Lex, which part of the article don't you believe? Other than this appears to be a first-hand account, everything I read seemed to be more of the same that we've seen from other sources.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 24, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Sorry Lex, which part of the article don't you believe?


The source. I'm not taking anything seriously unless it's from a known credible source. MotherJones.com does not qualify.


Ahhzz said:


> Other than this appears to be a first-hand account, everything I read seemed to be more of the same that we've seen from other sources.


Where have you seen "drowning in their own blood" before? That's not something I've seen yet. Not taking it seriously.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 24, 2020)

Slightly off topic, but it would seem there are more viruses getting ready for prime time in China...








						Man dies from hantavirus in China: All you need to know about the virus, and how it spreads-Health News , Firstpost
					

As per the CDC, rodent population control is the primary strategy for preventing hantavirus infections




					www.firstpost.com


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 24, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> The source. I'm not taking anything seriously unless it's from a known credible source.
> 
> Where have you seen "drowning in their own blood" before? That's not something I've seen yet. Not taking it seriously.


I did miss that specific statement in skimming the article. According to several sources, they do effectively drown (advanced pneumonia). This article from National Geographic describes it as a "Blood Storm", where the body is rushing white blood cells( via the blood) to the site of the infection (the lungs), and they start destroying good and bad tissue indiscriminately. Since it's tearing down the barrier between the lung sacs and the blood vessels, “Basically you’re bleeding out of your blood vessels,” which spill into the circulatory system. I can see how the phrase "Drowning in your own blood" could be derived from the scientific description.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> I did miss that specific statement in skimming the article. According to several sources, they do effectively drown (advanced pneumonia). This article from National Geographic describes it as a "Blood Storm", where the body is rushing white blood cells( via the blood) to the site of the infection (the lungs), and they start destroying good and bad tissue indiscriminately. Since it's tearing down the barrier between the lung sacs and the blood vessels, “Basically you’re bleeding out of your blood vessels,” which spill into the circulatory system. I can see how the phrase "Drowning in your own blood" could be derived from the scientific description.



Yes. But now the context.

This seems to happen primarily with elderly people and those that already have a weakened or damaged immune system. In other words. A damaged immune system is unable to attack this threat in the right way and tends to 'overdo it', which then creates the said complications. Its not a direct result of COVID-19, just a likely one in specific situations.

For younger and healthy people the immune system appears, in an overwhelming number of cases, perfectly capable of responding to this and even neutralizing it, despite having never contracted the same infection before. This is also why they say young children are a very low infection spread risk. They get over it and are temporarily immune after that.

Be wary of news articles like the one in question. They tend to focus on the outliers, its a mistake to read that as 'the norm'.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 24, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Be wary of news articles like the one in question. They tend to focus on the outliers, its a mistake to read that as 'the norm'.


Why did I feel a wave of sadness after reading your post? Somewhat because you feeel that needs to be said here, but mostly because that does need to be said here, lol.

Some patients this happens to... more daily and next week, it will skyrocket in the hardest hit places. The elderly, those with weakened immune systems, this can go downhill this way quite easily.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Why did I feel a wave of sadness after reading your post? Somewhat because you feeel that needs to be said here, but mostly because that does need to be said for the userbase here, lol



Yeah I see a lot of overly panicky members here and I'm trying to feed facts the right way for them. Call it damage control  Some of the news in foreign outlets (and domestic, but far less so) I see really makes me scratch my head in amazement. Its so easy to go crazy if you use the wrong sources.


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 24, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Yes. But now the context.
> 
> This seems to happen primarily with elderly people and those that already have a weakened or damaged immune system. In other words. A damaged immune system is unable to attack this threat in the right way and tends to 'overdo it', which then creates the said complications. Its not a direct result of COVID-19, just a likely one in specific situations.
> 
> ...


I didn't realize additional context was needed. I assumed that, obviously, this doesn't occur to everyone with the virus, as everyone with the virus hasn't died, and likewise I assumed everyone here knew that the symptoms I described and linked didn't apply to every single case. Taking a few minutes to read the whole article, it specifically states "In *severe* cases, you basically flood your lungs and you can't breathe". 

I also made the assumption that by quoting Lex's post regarding "drowning in their own blood", it would be apparent that I was linking an article for him giving some information about why the phrase could describe the damage being done.


----------



## HTC (Mar 24, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Yes. But now the context.
> 
> This seems to happen primarily with elderly people and those that already have a weakened or damaged immune system. In other words. A damaged immune system is unable to attack this threat in the right way and tends to 'overdo it', which then creates the said complications. Its not a direct result of COVID-19, just a likely one in specific situations.
> 
> ...



While what you say is true, people that are by all accounts perfectly healthy can still get "the full force" of this virus and, though they are "better equipped" to deal with it because they are healthy, that still doesn't mean they'll have a mild case of COVID-19, if they get infected.

This dude was healthy before COVID-19: though not hit very hard by this virus, it still "showed it's teeth" @ him.

It's not the norm, yes. However, that doesn't mean one can treat this lightly thinking one won't get it hard just because one is young and healthy. By comparison, the numbers of younger people in ICUs over this is much smaller than older people but DON'T MISTAKE a lower percentage number for ZERO.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

HTC said:


> While what you say is true, people that are by all accounts perfectly healthy can still get "the full force" of this virus and, though they are "better equipped" to deal with it because they are healthy, that still doesn't mean they'll have a mild case of COVID-19, if they get infected.
> 
> This dude was healthy before COVID-19: though not hit very hard by this virus, it still "showed it's teeth" @ him.
> 
> It's not the norm, yes. However, that doesn't mean one can treat this lightly thinking one won't get it hard just because one is young and healthy. By comparison, the numbers of younger people in ICUs over this is much smaller than older people but DON'T MISTAKE a lower percentage number for ZERO.



Right, but the law of big numbers does not work when you keep picking out the exceptions, and neither does it work for you in any possible way for living your life or dealing with danger. Its good to have a worst case scenario in the back of your head. Its a really bad idea to zoom in on it, repeatedly.

Stop that. For your own sake. The norm is the only thing you can really go on, because you just don't know how each individual has lived his life or how the virus responds to a specific person. But news papers will want those exceptions for a headline. I mean, an olympic athlete is not exactly a regular person is it. I'm not surprised an athlete that has for his entire life zoomed in on his physical and mental condition is quick to point out all that has changed. Its his lifestyle to do so and in every way we're looking at a unique physique.

The bigger threat to everyone's health when they get Corona is the hospitalization itself. Living a few weeks on an IC ward can induce severe problems, up to and including PTSS and loss of muscle mass. Many people need some time to recover and most never recover 100%, *regardless of what they visited the IC for*. The second real threat is the fact there simply won't be an IC ward to go to. And only after that should you start worrying about those severe symptoms and mind, its still true that there are ZERO deaths among young people. The youngest I believe is somewhere in his fifties. So again... context.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 24, 2020)

For something you label as a "worst case scenario" this is happening enough to all patients to warrant knowing it happens and not to minimize it. Sometimes a scare tactic (which, this isn't one to me... it is reality for some who contract it) can do wonders for shelter at home.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> For something you label as a "worst case scenario" this is happening enough to all patients to warrant knowing it happens and not to minimize it. Sometimes a scare tactic (which, this isn't one to me... it is reality for some who contract it) can do wonders for shelter at home.



All I'm saying is, worry about the things you can have an influence on. This is luck of the draw and before you draw this card there are a few dozen other cards that need to be drawn first, and that will potentially hit you far more easily.

This feels like worrying about a plane crash and being all fine with taxi drive to the airport, while we know car traffic is far more deadly.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 24, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> *All I'm saying is, worry about the things you can have an influence on. *This is luck of the draw and before you draw this card there are a few dozen other cards that need to be drawn first, and that will potentially hit you far more easily.


Well, then actually say that. 

This is just about being properly informed. What people do with this information, be it dismiss it, or take it too much to heart, isn't up to us. What will be is what will be.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 24, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> This is luck of the draw



That's silly logic.  It's not "luck of the draw."  There are MANY preventitive measures that really put this in the publics hands.  You can avoid this if you care enough.  Yes it may cost you.  But most can.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> That's silly logic.  It's not "luck of the draw."  There are MANY preventitive measures that really put this in the publics hands.



No, the severity of the infection is entirely luck of the draw, and how it affects your specific body is also not in your hands. You can't influence that. You can only influence the road towards it.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 24, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> That's silly logic.  It's not "luck of the draw."  There are MANY preventitive measures that really put this in the publics hands.


I believe he is talking about how severe you get it, not contracting it in the first place.

... which, who knows if it is luck. Do we know why the few who are young without pre-existing conditions get it so bad? Just statistical outliiers? What caused that in those who are not elderly or with pre-existing conditions?


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 24, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Right, but the law of big numbers does not work when you keep picking out the exceptions, and neither does it work for you in any possible way for living your life or dealing with danger. Its good to have a worst case scenario in the back of your head. Its a really bad idea to zoom in on it, repeatedly.
> 
> Stop that. For your own sake. The norm is the only thing you can really go on, because you just don't know how each individual has lived his life or how the virus responds to a specific person. But news papers will want those exceptions for a headline. I mean, an olympic athlete is not exactly a regular person is it. I'm not surprised an athlete that has for his entire life zoomed in on his physical and mental condition is quick to point out all that has changed. Its his lifestyle to do so and in every way we're looking at a unique physique.
> 
> The bigger threat to everyone's health when they get Corona is the hospitalization itself. Living a few weeks on an IC ward can induce severe problems, up to and including PTSS and loss of muscle mass. Many people need some time to recover and most never recover 100%, *regardless of what they visited the IC for*. The second real threat is the fact there simply won't be an IC ward to go to. And only after that should you start worrying about those severe symptoms and mind, its still true that there are ZERO deaths among young people. The youngest I believe is somewhere in his fifties. So again... context.





EarthDog said:


> For something you label as a "worst case scenario" this is happening enough to all patients to warrant knowing it happens and not to minimize it. Sometimes a scare tactic (which, this isn't one to me... it is reality for some who contract it) can do wonders for shelter at home.


I think ED is right here, and HTC's reminder about the athlete accentuates the point. We have no real way of knowing how much impact this can have on someone, and the "someone" is the important part here. As a person, I or you, or whomever may be perfectly healthy, but the woman that used the shopping cart after you did has an autoimmune disorder, and so does her 3-year old. Taking the extra time to cautious with what you handle and how often you wash is important not just because you don't know how the virus will affect you, but also because of those that interact with your space while you're there and after you're gone. Emphasizing these stories of how bad it can get keeps it in the forefront of those that don't seemingly care because "It's under control" or "I'm healthy".


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> I think ED is right here, and HTC's reminder about the athlete accentuates the point. We have no real way of knowing how much impact this can have on someone, and the "someone" is the important part here. As a person, I or you, or whomever may be perfectly healthy, but the woman that used the shopping cart after you did has an autoimmune disorder, and so does her 3-year old. Taking the extra time to cautious with what you handle and how often you wash is important not just because you don't know how the virus will affect you, but also because of those that interact with your space while you're there and after you're gone. Emphasizing these stories of how bad it can get keeps it in the forefront of those that don't seemingly care because "It's under control" or "I'm healthy".



Oh but in that he is correct. I think that little disconnect happened because we are in a later stage of this crisis. We're already on practical lockdown for a few weeks now. The US is only just beginning. Minimizing risk... I've been shouting that since this topic existed.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 24, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Oh but in that he is correct. I think that little disconnect happened because we are in a later stage of this crisis. We're already on practical lockdown for a few weeks now. The US is only just beginning. Minimizing risk... I've been shouting that since this topic existed.


Where are you at? I know Mars isn't it.........


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Where are you at? I know Mars isn't it.........



Netherlands.


----------



## HTC (Mar 24, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated: 2362 infected, with 30 deaths and 22 recoveries.



Vayra86 said:


> Netherlands.



Mars is located in the Netherlands: confirmed ...


----------



## ne6togadno (Mar 24, 2020)

SARS-CoV-2 and the lessons we have to learn from it.
					

(SARS-2-CoV is the virus. COVID-19 is the disease.)




					medium.com


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 24, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated: 2362 infected, with 30 deaths and 22 recoveries.
> 
> 
> 
> Mars is located in the Netherlands: confirmed ...



Yeah man, its an actual street name not too far from here  Along with the rest of the solar system.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 24, 2020)

Louisiana now has 1,388 cases, and 46 deaths, with about 8,500 tests conducted.  925 cases are in the New Orleans metro area.  Concentration of population, concentration of infection.

The Governor has asked for a major disaster declaration and Federal help as the state’s resources and supplies have become overwhelmed.









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 24, 2020)

@EarthDog 
I took the liberty of posting your earlier CDC link in the OP. Thank you for posting it.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 24, 2020)

Just saw Italy numbers...going up again sadly, 743 died
69176 total infected.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 24, 2020)

> “This patient is a gentleman in his late 50s, who initially had a fever and a non-productive cough like many other people. Respiratory symptoms progressed quite rapidly, to the point where he did need to be intubated and put on the ventilator."





> What you're seeing in the video, essentially the blue part is the more normal lung, but anything you're seeing that's yellow is lung that's being destroyed by the virus," said Mortman. "One of the big problems is it's really a one-two punch. So it starts with the initial insult from the virus, but then the body's way of trying to contain it is by creating inflammation, by trying to surround it in a sense. So what you're seeing in yellow is both viral infection as well as inflammation in the lungs. And it's that one-two punch, that's why far too many of these patients have trouble with their breathing or getting short of breath. And that's a symptom that can come on quite rapidly to the point where some of these patients require hospital admission, being put on a breathing tube, or being put on a ventilator."


----------



## Drone (Mar 24, 2020)

The Tip of the Iceberg: Virologist David Ho (BS '74) Speaks About COVID-19
					

The scientist who helped successfully combat the HIV/AIDS epidemic explains the science behind the novel coronavirus and looks toward the future of the world affected by COVID-19.




					www.caltech.edu
				




24 months..


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 24, 2020)

Two more positive cases in Ketchikan.


> At the current rate of spread, Ketchikan could have over 400 positive cases of COVID-19 by the end of next week," the statement reads in part. "If we all do our part, we can reduce that number dramatically and contain the spread.
> 
> The two new cases bring Alaska's confirmed case count to at least 38 as of late Tuesday morning.











						UPDATE: Ketchikan confirms 3 new cases of COVID-19
					

The Ketchikan Emergency Operations Center announced three new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ketchikan, bringing the total to number of cases in Ketchikan to at least nine.




					www.ktuu.com


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 24, 2020)

Over 400k now... So we went from 200k to 300k in four days and the same from 300k to 400k+
It looked like Italy had peaked, but apparently far from it 
US has taken the lead in the largest number of new cases...

Are there any good news?


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 24, 2020)

I don't know about anyone else but I'm ready to get off where this ride is headed too.


----------



## flmatter (Mar 24, 2020)

@biffzinker @HammerON   if you guys need anything  give me a holler. A drive north or a nice drive south does not bother me.     I agree @biffzinker  I am ready to get off this ride and back to norm  

had to edit  fingers were dumb


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 24, 2020)

Someone here trying to get himself infected needs to reconsider that train of thought. I have a strong feeling it doesn't end well for him no matter how healthy or psychically fit he is. Not mentioning who it is.

Edit: I've been debating whether I should of said anything. I know what happens to me, it involves waking up in a hospital, and seeing myself on a ventilator along with some other stuff in a ICU room. When or what happens though I don't know.

Maybe I am crazy, but I feel pretty sane otherwise.


----------



## HammerON (Mar 24, 2020)

flmatter said:


> @biffzinker @HammerON   if you guys need anything  give me a holler. A drive north or a nice drive south does not bother me.     I agree @biffzinker  I am ready to get off this ride and back to norm
> 
> had to edit  fingers were dumb


We are doing well, but thank you!!!


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 24, 2020)

flmatter said:


> @biffzinker @HammerON   if you guys need anything  give me a holler. A drive north or a nice drive south does not bother me.     I agree @biffzinker  I am ready to get off this ride and back to norm
> 
> had to edit  fingers were dumb


I'm fine at the moment but thank you for the gesture.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 24, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> Someone here trying to get himself infected needs to reconsider that train of thought.


Not trying, just not avoiding. Not one to live in fear. I say bring it on.



biffzinker said:


> Not mentioning who it is.


No need, I'm not hiding my thoughts.



TheLostSwede said:


> Are there any good news?


Actually, there is. The mortality numbers are not keeping pace with the infection rate. The next few weeks will of course tell more, but for now, the numbers are looking better.


----------



## Caring1 (Mar 24, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Not trying, just not avoiding. Not one to live in fear. I say bring it on.


Your type of ignorance and lack of understanding is what caused the exponential spread in the first place.
Are the elderly and at risk just casualties of war?
As long as your alright hey.


----------



## phanbuey (Mar 24, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> Your type of ignorance and lack of understanding is what caused the exponential spread in the first place.
> Are the elderly and at risk just casualties of war?
> As long as your alright hey.



You're assuming that his decision stems from ignorance and lack of understanding...





						FastStats
					

FastStats is an official application from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and puts access to topic-specific statistics at your fingertips.




					www.cdc.gov
				




2017 causes of death:

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Most of the people, not all, that die from corona virus have a co-morbidity of either heart disease, chronic respiratory or diabetes...

If you follow your logic you shouldn't even leave your house or drive a car since you might cause an accident, which kills 170K people a year.   Oh well... casualties in your need for groceries i guess?  Or hey - call people names on the internet because suicide and self harm kills 47k a year.

I'm not arguing against social distancing or the need to stem the massive tidal wave of sick patients that are going to overwhelm the health system, but just demonstrating how extreme lines of thinking and mass fear mongering are also not helpful.  South Korea dealt with the crisis effectively without mass quarantines in any major city, we can definitely do this and keep our sanity - we just need better tech, communication and way more testing - and some sort of coordinated process / plan from the leadership.


----------



## authorized (Mar 24, 2020)

The logic is that if we didn't go to extreme measures, it's possible that this virus would run through a global population like wildfire and we would be counting the dead by millions. And, unlike non-preventable illnesses or accidents, there are things we can do to minimize the impact and we are doing it.
The west is not like SK, there are cultural and societal differences, afaik people there respect authority and follow the guidelines. Of course, better reaction by governments would still help, but I have a feeling that without all the "fearmongering" a lot of people in the western world would just brush off all the warnings and did whatever they wanted.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 25, 2020)

phanbuey said:


> South Korea dealt with the crisis effectively without mass quarantines in any major city,


Exactly.


Caring1 said:


> Your type of ignorance and lack of understanding is what caused the exponential spread in the first place.


LOL! @phanbuey took the words right out of my mouth.


Caring1 said:


> Are the elderly and at risk just casualties of war?


They are at risk anyway. Cancer, Mrsa, Flu, car wreck... Any of those things are for more likely to kill them than COVID19. It's call life. Live it, or crawl under a rock and stay there.

Fact, reason, knowledge and logic are what we need to work this problem. Panic, over-reactions and irrational feelings will only make things worse, as has and is being demonstrated by the events of late.

Fact 1: There are far more recovered people than dead people.
Conclusion: The human immune system, whether assisted or not, is overwhelmingly winning this battle.

Fact 2: No shut downs, anywhere in the world, have proven effective in preventing or slowing the spread of this virus.
Conclusion: Isolation and shutdowns are a too-little-too-late approach to a problem that has already spread far and wide.

Fact 3: Because the human immune system is successful fighting this virus in combination with it spreading to far to be effectively stopped by national isolation's, it is logical to conclude that such efforts are a complete waste of time.
Conclusion: We need to face reality head on and accept it for what it is.

We face this virus on our own terms instead of cowering in our homes and hiding behind windows and doors. We will survive and prevail. Some of us will die, but that will not be any different than *any other day.* Me and mine refuse to cower and hide.


----------



## Vario (Mar 25, 2020)

SK did mass testing.  To repeat the results of SK without mass quarantines, the US needs to do mass testing.
Edit:
Here is a video of an Italian ER


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 25, 2020)

Vario said:


> SK did mass testing.  To repeat the results of SK without mass quarantines, the US needs to do mass testing.


That might have worked 6 weeks ago. It's too late for that. At this time, the only left to do is wait. The virus will run it's course regardless of what we do.


----------



## Vario (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That might have worked 6 weeks ago. It's too late for that. At this time, the only left to do is wait. The virus will run it's course regardless of what we do.


The next phase is mass production of medical equipment, field hospitals, beds.  The sheer quantity of sick people will overwhelm existing hospitals.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 25, 2020)

Vario said:


> The next phase is mass production of medical equipment, field hospitals, beds. The sheer quantity of sick people will overwhelm existing hospitals.


People without serious problems are being sent home, which is where they need to be. But you are not wrong, bolstering of medical supplies is part of the bigger plan.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Fact, reason, knowledge and logic are what we need to work this problem. Panic, over-reactions and irrational feelings will only make things worse, as has and is being demonstrated by the events of late.


Explain this more... what is worse, the hoarding and such?



lexluthermiester said:


> Fact 1: There are far more recovered people than dead people.
> Conclusion: The human immune system, whether assisted or not, is overwhelmingly winning this battle.


It is for now...but that is also in part to the hospital system being able to handle many of the severe cases. But what happens when, in a week or two, the hospitals, nationwide start getting overrun? Sure, the human immune system still 'wins' as it did with all other pandemics anyway...is there one over 50% mortality rate? The Flu of 1918-1920 was from 10-20%...that is the highest I recall. With that in mind, can't say I the conclusion is worth anything.



lexluthermiester said:


> Fact 2: No shut downs, anywhere in the world, have proven effective in preventing or slowing the spread of this virus.
> Conclusion: Isolation and shutdowns are a too-little-too-late approach to a problem that has already spread far and wide.


Can you source this fact, please? While isolations and shutdowns will clearly hurt the economy, we've seen this help before. Look at the tale of the same Flu pandemic in 1918-1920... What were the cities, Philly and St. Louis... one shutdown, the other, Philly, went on with life and a huge parade, etc. This isolation/social distancing is what 'flattens the curve'... this works at most any point before peak, which we are week aware from according to the experts.








						A Pandemic And A Parade: What 1918 tells us about flattening the curve
					

The virus that became known as Spanish Flu first appeared in early 1918. Rampant among military bases in both the U.S. and Europe, it spread rapidly as World War I brought opposing armies together in dire conditions.




					www.thedenverchannel.com
				











						This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works
					

St. Louis' response to the Spanish flu is informing the battle against the novel coronavirus.




					qz.com
				








						Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 1 - Section 11
					

Principles of Epidemiology in Public Health Practice, Third Edition An Introduction to Applied Epidemiology and Biostatistics Lesson 1 Section 11




					www.cdc.gov
				






lexluthermiester said:


> Fact 3: Because the human immune system is successful fighting this virus in combination with it spreading to far to be effectively stopped by national isolation's, it is logical to conclude that such efforts are a complete waste of time.
> Conclusion: We need to face reality head on and accept it for what it is.


See above... number 2 and 3 seem to bunk that line of thinking.



lexluthermiester said:


> We face this virus on our own terms instead of cowering in our homes and hiding behind windows and doors. We will survive and prevail. Some of us will die, but that will not be any different than *any other day.* Me and mine refuse to cower and hide.


This is a very selfish way to look at things...don't mind anyone else while you potentially carry and spread to the unsuspecting.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 25, 2020)

*stares at New York*


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 25, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> It is for now...


And that tread has only continued, it is not getting worse.


EarthDog said:


> With that in mind, can't say I the conclusion is worth anything.


The raw numbers say otherwise and that is where I'm drawing my conclusion from.


EarthDog said:


> Can you source this fact, please?


I'm not going to debate that point as I would end up typing out a small novel. I reached that conclusion as a fact based on the spread of the virus currently and the tread it's taking. You may disagree, but the numbers point strongly to that conclusion.


EarthDog said:


> This is a very selfish way to look at things...don't mind anyone else while you potentially carry and spread to the unsuspecting.


Opinion. How is this different from anything else that we regularly face, such as the flu? Is it selfish then? The flu is still deadly, so how can it be selfish now with COVID19 and not at any other time? People are responsible for themselves in the context that they are supposed to know when they are "at risk" for viral infections. Anyone who is already will be taking steps to prevent or minimize exposure on a personal level. That is their responsibility. When we get the flu, we get the flu. If it's not holding us down we go on with life. If it is we generally self isolate. This new virus is showing that it is no different in practical effect.


----------



## Vario (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> How is this different from anything else that we regularly face, such as the flu? Is it selfish then? The flu is still deadly, so how can it be selfish now with COVID19 and not at any other time? People are responsible for themselves in the context that they are supposed to know when they are "at risk" for viral infections. Anyone who is already will be taking steps to prevent or minimize exposure on a personal level. That is their responsibility. When we get the flu, we get the flu. If it's not holding us down we go on with life. If it is we generally self isolate. This new virus is showing that it is no different in practical effect.


~10 to 30 times more deadly than seasonal flu.
~2 times as infectious

For my source, see page 2 of this link:


			https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
		




Also you can add the WHO map to the list





						Experience
					






					experience.arcgis.com


----------



## Caring1 (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> LOL! @phanbuey took the words right out of my mouth.
> 
> They are at risk anyway.


So your attitude is clearly, I'm all right Jack, stuff everyone else.
Throw as many of your alternative facts around as you like, but a little empathy for others goes a long way.
Living your life, shouldn't put the lives of others at risk!


----------



## phanbuey (Mar 25, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> So your attitude is clearly, I'm all right Jack, stuff everyone else.
> Throw as many of your alternative facts around as you like, but a little empathy for others goes a long way.
> Living your life, shouldn't put the lives of others at risk!



You make it sound so easy... but is it really that easy? -- how many more lives did that 20% suicide rate climb during the great depression take? will it take another 9K/year now and for the next year when we recover? 18K? you're ok with that?

What about those who work in food service or hospitality with kids who cant go to school/daycare now supposed to do?  Are they supposed to just magically survive off no income and not go outside even though they're asymptomatic?  Where are they in this equation?  How many businesses have been wiped out?  What are those people supposed to do now? - they too have families.  What about all the homeless people?  Construction workers? People living paycheck to paycheck (30% of americans BTW!) ?

I'm glad we all here can sit on our high horses and code and watch netflix for two weeks, but this is a seriously grim trade for those people that rely on human interaction to make a living.  There's a real cost to everything that isn't just alternative facts.  Empathy is realizing that it isn't just at risk old people -- there's plenty of at risk people on the other side.  It's a grim trade with no good answer.

This is kind of a good time for people to come together and respect the fact that we have the choice to make our own decisions.  If you want to get mad at people spreading the virus, maybe you should send your sternly worded concerns to the Chinese authorities, who tried to hide this whole thing to begin with.


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## Dinnercore (Mar 25, 2020)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241803403619172359
At 1% mortality you would kill 590 people potentially. Nice. I couldn´t live with that. But to each their own.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 25, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> View attachment 149152
> *stares at New York*
> View attachment 149153



Mini Italy #1. Now the struggle for beds truly begins over there. Expect a doubling of deaths daily until you can control the curve in that area...

Good news, perhaps, from the Netherlands. We are seeing a slowdown from exponential growth of deaths. Intake in ICU is still at similar levels, but we still have capacity to spare for a new wave.. Early conclusion: the partial lockdown and measures are having effect. Might be premature. But at the same time, knowing social distancing is effective, we also know this is going to be with us for quite a bit longer than this spring.

The goal is, as @the54thvoid says, not to somehow eliminate the virus but to keep the curve manageable. Our Dutch partial lockdown measures have already been lengthened to June 1st. I expect, best case, that past that date it will be a minor step back towards increased social contact. Not a full return to it.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 25, 2020)

phanbuey said:


> You make it sound so easy... but is it really that easy? -- how many more lives did that 20% suicide rate climb during the great depression take? will it take another 9K/year now and for the next year when we recover? 18K? you're ok with that?
> 
> What about those who work in food service or hospitality with kids who cant go to school/daycare now supposed to do?  Are they supposed to just magically survive off no income and not go outside even though they're asymptomatic?  Where are they in this equation?  How many businesses have been wiped out?  What are those people supposed to do now? - they too have families.  What about all the homeless people?  Construction workers? People living paycheck to paycheck (30% of americans BTW!) ?
> 
> ...



Again, the systems shutting down aren't doing it to prevent deaths. Covid-19 is an infectious viral illness that spreads very fast. It doesn't kill many, and most DO have other issues. However, to let it run its course would simply place an intolerable and damaging strain on the medical sector. So, while the beds are full, all the other treatable illnesses that don't kill in our 21st century world, will atually kill. People need to stop seeing this as some sort of way to defeat the virus - it's not. It's absolutely a way to delay the inevitable impact on a nations health service. Of note, 14% of new infections in Spain are with hospital staff.

And the stats about mortality rates - they all go up when the beds are full with people with the virus. You let it runs its course, you get a lot of sick people off-work, like teachers, doctors. These are the things the measures are trying to avoid. Besides, 2 trillion US dollars is being passed to assist 'every' American. UK and EU are doing similar things to help people by.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 25, 2020)

Finally some good news.








						Low Coronavirus Mutation Rate Gives Researchers Hope for a Single Vaccine
					

Because COVID-19 has not mutated significantly, researchers believe one vaccine — similar to the measles or chicken pox — could be possible.




					nymag.com


----------



## HTC (Mar 25, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 2995 confirmed infected
- 43 fatalities
- 22 recovered
- 1591 waiting for test results

Biggest spike in number of cases so far, with over 600 in a day 

Portugal's stance on the fatalities it declares from COVID-19: regardless of if they had other illnesses prior to catching COVID-19 or had something caused by COVID-19, the cause of death is officially stated as due to COVID-19.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 25, 2020)

Dinnercore said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241803403619172359
> At 1% mortality you would kill 590 people potentially. Nice. I couldn´t live with that. But to each their own.



This guys says it perfectly and this should be posted everywhere. Perfectly balanced story of this threat. Big kudos


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 25, 2020)

I really hope @lexluthermiester sees this...and more clearly understands the results of those decidedly selfish actions (and promoting them).


----------



## Vario (Mar 25, 2020)

http://imgur.com/adhdxYM


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 25, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> So your attitude is clearly, I'm all right Jack, stuff everyone else.


Feel free to add me to your ignore list then as my attitude will not be changing.


Vario said:


> ~10 to 30 times more deadly than seasonal flu.


Not true and that number is VERY easy to calculate. 
Currently in the United States;
55,200 cases
800 fatalities
That is approx 1.4% mortality rate. This is still FAR less deadly than ALL of the following, which everyone needs to carefully review for some proper perspective;


phanbuey said:


> You're assuming that his decision stems from ignorance and lack of understanding...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thank You for posting this. Most helpful.

@Vayra86 @EarthDog 
You were saying?


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> You were saying?


1.4% in the US at this moment (like you, we'll just gloss over the fact that will likely rise before it falls once the health systems start to get overrun). I quoted to you previously that FLU kills 0.1% of people who catch it (in 2018, CDC). US is at 14x that number with the number of hospitalizations increasing at rates that alarm medical professionals. According to phanbuey's numbers, 55k died of the flu in the US of ~34M cases. What does that math work out to.......0.1%... and we are 1.4% (with the world at a much higher rate, note - and where we will be in weeks time).

So, yeah, as I was saying, you are acting incredibly selfish and dismissing/glossing over other information pertinent for people to formulate an educated opinion. I've looked at your numbers and 2+2 isn't 5. Post 376 is off the rails...with "facts" that aren't facts (you don't support much...soooofaking annoyyyyyyyyyyyying - I put up 3 different links). It feels like I'm watching Trump post and then others have to come in behind and clean up the mess.


----------



## Vario (Mar 25, 2020)

If mortality rate is between 1 and 3% then it is 10 to 30 times more deadly than the seasonal flu with a mortality rate of .1%.
If measuring infectious rate as an R0, if seasonal flu has an R1.4 and Coronavirus has an R3.0, then it is 2.14 times as a infectious.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 25, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> you are acting incredibly selfish


That will be the last of the insults, passive aggressive or otherwise. Keep comments civilized or I will ask the mods to issue thread-bans.



EarthDog said:


> Post 376 is off the rails...with "facts" that aren't facts.


Opinion.



EarthDog said:


> (you don't support much...soooofaking annoyyyyyyyyyyyying - I put up 3 different links)


Your links do not prove or even greatly support your argument which is why I ignored them.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 25, 2020)

I doubt lex is going to change his mind, though as he & the US will likely find out that when this "flu" runs its course across the globe, it will have killed millions in the wake! Of course it hasn't even hit the poorest nations much yet, for instance undivided India (pre independence) had about ~*18 million* causalities due to the Spanish flu. That's the lower end of the estimate, the upper end is about 2x so you can imagine what it can do in the rest of the world, yeah right another "flu"


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That will be the last of the insults, passive aggressive or otherwise. Keep comments civilized or I will ask the mods to issue thread-bans.
> 
> 
> Opinion.
> ...


Make no mistake about Lex...there is absolutely nothing passive aggressive about it...I  called a spade a spade (for the record, a moderator liked that post calling your thoughts selfish). That said, I won't berate you with that point further... the evidence is there for all to read. 

My links both prove and supported what I said. You can't even take the time to say what it didn't prove.

You don't even address the points man, you get all hurt then take your ball and go home. Show us the light! Just lex or any random forum member posting just spouting off "fact - xxxx, conclusion - xxxxx" doesn't cut it. I'd love to work with you, but you are making it impossible with your replies sometimes. It's a shame...

EDIT: How can anyone have a discussion when someone brings up a counter point and you blow it off? I used phanbuey's numbers (that you support) and nary a mention of that.............


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 25, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> I doubt lex is going to change his mind, though as he & the US will likely find out that when this "flu" runs its course across the globe, it will have killed millions in the wake! Of course it hasn't even hit the poorest nations much yet, for instance undivided India (pre independence) had about ~*18 million* causalities due to the Spanish flu. That's the lower end of the estimate, the upper end is about 2x so you can imagine what it can do in the rest of the world, yeah right another "flu"


I have been comparing the virus performance numbers of COVID19 to the performance numbers of the flu, both viral in nature and both resulting in a mortality rate. That is where the comparison ends. Try to understand the context there.


----------



## Vario (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Not true and that number is VERY easy to calculate.
> Currently in the United States;
> 55,200 cases
> 800 fatalities
> That is approx 1.4% mortality rate. This is still FAR less deadly than ALL of the following, which everyone needs to carefully review for some proper perspective;


Can you tell me why my rough ballpark of 10-30X more deadly is incorrect?
Based on your own figures, it is therefore *14x more deadly. *Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of <.1%.
Furthermore, the situation is worse if considering worldwide data, the worldwide mortality rate is ~4%.








						COVID Live Update: 170,691,288 Cases and 3,550,115 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				



Total cases as of Mar 25, 2020: 446,703
Total deaths: 19,805
Mortality rate is 4.4%


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 25, 2020)

People are not taking this as seriously as they should of been. That's our down fall in the end, the worst is yet to come. That's all I'm saying in this thread. Go ahead, and ridicule me.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I have been comparing the virus performance numbers of COVID19 to the performance numbers of the flu, both viral in nature and both resulting in a mortality rate. That is where the comparison ends. Try to understand the context there.


Can you show your work, please?

What is the math that makes mortality rate of the flu better than the US or the world's values? Here is where my math comes from...

Flu =  ~34M infected and 55k deaths = 0.1% (sourced from the phanbuey link)
corona US = 51k positive 675 deaths = 1.32% (my link you put in the first post)
corona world = 441k confirmed effected, 19.7k deaths = 4.4% (your link in the first post)

It seems fair to say you DON'T believe hospitals will get overrun and death rates will rise before then inevitably fall? Is that correct? What facts (must be supported) make you feel this way? Is it the fact that COVID-19 is 2-3x more contagious? The fact that our gov't acted in a timely manner on social distancing (a few states did, not the gov't to be clear)? What is it that made you say such a thing??

What are sooooooooooooooooo many missing, Lex, that you are not? 



Vario said:


> SNIP


lol, this!!! I'm late to the party, but.......


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That will be the last of the insults, passive aggressive or otherwise. Keep comments civilized or I will ask the mods to issue thread-bans.
> 
> 
> Opinion.
> ...






EarthDog said:


> Make no mistake about Lex...there is absolutely nothing passive aggressive about it...I  called a spade a spade (for the record, a moderator liked that post calling your thoughts selfish). That said, I won't berate you with that point further... the evidence is there for all to read.
> 
> My links both prove and supported what I said. You can't even take the time to say what it didn't prove.
> 
> ...



This is my experience with Lex as well. On and off ignore list twice. This does make it a lot easier to make up my mind.

I kerp making the mistake to think the guy changes, but nope, you exchange arguments and all you get is a wall of 'no merit', 'opinion' or just plain ignoring a reply with info that does not suit the narrative of the day.

@the54thvoid I do wonder now why we have lex as OP of precisely this fact based topic at this moment in time.  Sonething to think about, even just in light of doing your social duty in presenting factual info that does NOT cost lives. Not saying you are responsible for that btw... but is this what TPU wants I do wonder.

Because that is the point we are really at right now... Its becoming borderline irresponsible.


----------



## 15th Warlock (Mar 25, 2020)

I haven't posted here in a while, and it sucks that a community like TPU is so divided on how to tackle with this challenge to society, I see friends of mine on both sides of this argument, and some make some good points, some, I have to honestly say I disagree with.

I work in the health field, and I'm considered an "essential worker" so I have to continue providing services to my patients during this crisis. I have parents in their 70s, and a 10yr old and a 8 week old baby, so you could say I'm exposed to this threat on all ends of the spectrum.

I have to tell you, as I post this from work, I'm petrified to come to work, getting ready every morning requires all the effort I can summon, just to leave my house and expose myself and family to this virus. Even taking all the precautions at work, this virus is so contagious, and there are so many unknowns that even wearing a full P100 mask and full PPE I am scared to bring this disease with me home, to my wife and kids.

I can't even fathom seeing my parents, or inlaws at this moment, my dad has beat cancer, twice, and he changed his life and is healthier now than he was the first time he was diagnosed with cancer, I beg him every day to minimize his exposure and not go out until the crisis is under control.

Please don't be so callous and think that this is just another factor to add to the list of morbidity causes out there, I can't bear to think any members of my family will pass away because they were exposed to this illness and their health and age factors make them die before their time.

I almost lost my dad twice before, and he fought and conquered cancer, it was so hard to see and to think this stupid virus could end his life in a matter of weeks brings tears to my eyes.

I beg of you, don't just disregard this pandemic, don't be so callous and think you are immune to it, yes, most of you are young and healthy, and probably would only have minor flu symptoms, but when you have to deal with the reality of losing a family member on a daily basis because of your occupation, things take a whole different perspective, if you don't mind catching the disease, at least think of other people around you, don't spread it to people who are already vulnerable, and more at risk.

Unfortunately life won't be the same, and statistics alone lead me to the sad conclusion that more than one of us will be affected in one way or another by the pandemic, please stay safe.

Just my two cents, only if we work in one united front we will lower the chances of people dying unnecessarily, don't put others risk, I wish I had that choice.


----------



## Rahnak (Mar 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> There are far more recovered people than dead people.


Still far too many dead people in a short period.



lexluthermiester said:


> No shut downs, anywhere in the world, have proven effective in preventing or slowing the spread of this virus.


Wuhan.



lexluthermiester said:


> Because the human immune system is successful fighting this virus in combination with it spreading to far to be effectively stopped by national isolation's, it is logical to conclude that such efforts are a complete waste of time.


Wuhan.



lexluthermiester said:


> I have been comparing the virus performance numbers of COVID19 to the performance numbers of the flu, both viral in nature and both resulting in a mortality rate. That is where the comparison ends. Try to understand the context there.


It's been said time and time again that the death rate isn't the bigger problem. It's the sustained strain on hospitals. It's when they go over capacity that you really start seeing those deaths go up. It happened in Italy, it's happening in Spain. It'll happen in New York. That's when families get asked to let their loved ones die because they need that ventilator to save someone else that has a better chance of surviving.
And the only reason China didn't have as many deaths is because they built a freakin' massive hospital on site and the aggressive quarantine measures.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 25, 2020)

Let me jump in with some new numbers for Louisiana. We grew in the last 24 hours by about a third to 1,795 positve, and 65 deaths. Those grew by about a third as well.








						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 25, 2020)

15th Warlock said:


> and it sucks that a community like TPU is so divided on how to tackle with this challenge to society,


There is literally like 1 person who isn't, for the most part, onboard with what is going on....


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 25, 2020)

Thread clean up please.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 25, 2020)

I can't speak for the other mods but I'll not issue thread bans for mild disagreements. @lexluthermiester is entitled to his view - it is exactly that, a view. All of us have views on this virus and the efect it is having and the impact govt. decisions will have on the economy. There is an argument to be had on both fronts. No population of humans will behave as a coherent 100% entity, we're not a fricking Borg collective (cue tennis memes - but no, don't, we'll delete them).

The thread is so far running as you'd expect. Just keep the niggling personal comments down. As a mod, I've learned it's not really my opinion that counts. So I try to listen to others, especially those in the past I've really disagreed with. Everyone has an opinion and as a science graduate, unfortunately, even science can be used to defend both sides of an argument. As long as you're willing to ignore the 'majority' viewpoint, of course.

And I'm not cleaning up. It's your trash people, pick it up yourselves and self-reflect. We're moderators, not baby-sitters. I'll step in when you're being right pissy to one another.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 25, 2020)

My observation is that the infected/deaths ratio is very low at the beginning - because like doctors that work with these patients say that it takes some time for the severe symptoms to develop.
So yes you might see a huge increase in infected numbers but low numbers of deaths - but after a week or so those who got ill in that huge spike of infections overwhelm the hospitals.

That is why IMO the NY numbers look very scary and (I hope I'm wrong) the effects of that will be seen in 5-7 days.
Spain was quite similar at the beginning - high and very fast growing infected numbers with low death numbers. Well now you can see the effects of that.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 25, 2020)

repman244 said:


> My observation is that the infected/deaths ratio is very low at the beginning - because like doctors that work with these patients say that it takes some time for the severe symptoms to develop.
> So yes you might see a huge increase in infected numbers but low numbers of deaths - but after a week or so those who got ill in that huge spike of infections overwhelm the hospitals.
> 
> That is why IMO the NY numbers look very scary and (I hope I'm wrong) the effects of that will be seen in 5-7 days.
> Spain was quite similar at the beginning - high and very fast growing infected numbers with low death numbers. Well now you can see the effects of that.



Yeah I"ve read around day 8-10 it can suddenly take a turn for the worse. From mildly symptomatic to straight to ICU.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 25, 2020)

repman244 said:


> My observation is that the infected/deaths ratio is very low at the beginning - because like doctors that work with these patients say that it takes some time for the severe symptoms to develop.
> So yes you might see a huge increase in infected numbers but low numbers of deaths - but after a week or so those who got ill in that huge spike of infections overwhelm the hospitals.
> 
> That is why IMO the NY numbers look very scary and (I hope I'm wrong) the effects of that will be seen in 5-7 days.
> Spain was quite similar at the beginning - high and very fast growing infected numbers with low death numbers. Well now you can see the effects of that.



Yeah, this is the problem. Once you get a spike from a population dense location, the numbers climb pretty fast. Spain deaths have now also climbed higher than China's. 2nd only to Italy.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 25, 2020)

Oregon broke down age groups.  Would like to see hospitalized numbers for age group...


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Mar 25, 2020)

1freedude said:


> Oregon broke down age groups.  Would like to see hospitalized numbers for age group...View attachment 149345


Scarry stuff, that's actually more useful statistics to my mind then how many die, look how many end up in hospital, not good, with the dire state of testing for it in any way Still in most countries it doesn't paint a good picture.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 25, 2020)

*266**10**5476*
Positives^^                              Deaths^^                    Negative results ^^


Why were so many people tested?  Paramedics, EMTs, police, hospital workers, etc?

Not asking to get a real response, but that many tests with a negative result seems very wasteful.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 25, 2020)

Ok, now things are getting a bit scary.








						UK woman, 21, with no health issues dies from Covid-19, family say
					

Death of Chloe Middleton shows how dangerous virus is to all, family say




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Vario (Mar 26, 2020)

COVID-19 death rate by country 2022 | Statista
					

COVID-19 deaths per capita were 2 to 3 times higher in Italy, the UK and Belgium than in the United States.




					www.statista.com
				



Sort by death rate %. 
See also https://www.statista.com/statistics...ies-deaths-most-affected-countries-worldwide/


                    Confirmed cases                                   Number of deaths                                   Death rate (%)               Italy69,1766,8209.86Iran24,8111,9347.79Spain42,0582,9917.11United Kingdom8,1644235.18Netherlands5,5852774.96France22,6351,1024.87China81,5913,2854.03Japan1,193433.6Belgium4,2691222.86Ecuador1,082272.5Turkey1,872442.35Brazil2,247462.05Denmark1,718321.86Sweden2,299401.74United States55,2258021.45Portugal2,362331.4South Korea9,1371261.38Switzerland9,8771321.34Canada2,792270.97Malaysia1,796170.95Luxembourg1,09980.73Pakistan1,00070.7Austria5,283300.57Ireland1,32970.53Germany32,9911590.48Norway2,866130.45Australia2,31880.35Israel2,03050.25Czechia1,39430.22


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 26, 2020)

I just have to get this off my chest and then I'm out. 

Lex, seriously. STOP comparing this virus to the flu. It. Is. Not. The. Flu. If you MUST compare it to something, you really should be comparing it to COVID-19's "cousins" SARS and MERS, as they are far, far more similar to COVID-19 than influenza. 

Seriously, just stop it already.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 26, 2020)

This is a kind of virus that can mess you up pretty good.

When I was 20, I suffered some kind of a respiratory infection, been in the hospital for a few weeks. My stamina never been the same ever since, and I work out on a regular basis.

COVID-19 targets your respiratory system, very infectious, and might kill a person like me.

Injured organs don't heal to 100 percent. Always remain vulnerable.

Hell, injured my hip 2 years ago, been fixed in a surgery by top-rated sports surgeon, still vulnerable and will never be the same.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 26, 2020)

Then there is the question of what hasn't China told us about the virus their covering up.


----------



## phanbuey (Mar 26, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> Then there is the question of what hasn't China told us about the virus their covering up.



This is something i want to know as well... those numbers look 100% fake (not saying that they are, they just look it given everyone else).  Im sure there is more to this all that will come out in the future.


----------



## HTC (Mar 26, 2020)

phanbuey said:


> This is something i want to know as well... *those numbers look 100% fake (not saying that they are, they just look it given everyone else)*.  Im sure there is more to this all that will come out in the future.



While i agree, this particular subject is best left for the other COVID-19 topic.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 26, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> I just have to get this off my chest and then I'm out.
> 
> Lex, seriously. STOP comparing this virus to the flu. It. Is. Not. The. Flu. If you MUST compare it to something, you really should be comparing it to COVID-19's "cousins" SARS and MERS, as they are far, far more similar to COVID-19 than influenza.
> 
> Seriously, just stop it already.


I will compare numbers to numbers as I see fit as long as they are accurate and apply within the context of comparison.

And for those who earlier stated a certain remark, yes, you *are* missing something. Just because a group of you are failing to understand something glaringly obvious doesn't make it my problem. Try not to break anything figuring out what you missed.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 26, 2020)

Just because numbers for disease/virus X are higher than another, completely different, disease/virus A doesn't mean that A is less dangerous just because Y has "higher numbers".


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I will compare numbers to numbers as I see fit as long as they are accurate and apply within the context of comparison.
> 
> And for those who earlier stated a certain remark, yes, you *are* missing something. Just because a group of you are failing to understand something glaringly obvious doesn't make it my problem. Try not to break anything figuring out what you missed.



75,000 sick, 7,500 dead in Italy. Death ratio of 10% when the medical system in a country is overwhelmed.


----------



## HTC (Mar 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> *I will compare numbers to numbers as I see fit as long as they are accurate and apply within the context of comparison.*
> 
> And for those who earlier stated a certain remark, yes, you *are* missing something. Just because a group of you are failing to understand something glaringly obvious doesn't make it my problem. Try not to break anything figuring out what you missed.


Let me ask you this: excluding War periods, when was the last time you've known hospitals to be overwhelmed as they have been in China @ 1st, then in Italy and now in Spain?

@ the risk of sounding callous, the deaths don't matter: what matters is the number of those that require hospitalization and *THAT* number is *MUCH HIGHER* than the 1 - 2% of the death toll because THAT'S what overwhelms the hospitals.

*Many governments around the world are desperately trying to avoid THAT* and go as far as shutdown a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT PART of their countries in the hopes it doesn't come to that.

Why? Because once hospitals are overwhelmed, other medical problems that CAN BE TREATED in normal situations MAY NOT BE: not only the number of deaths from COVID-19 skyrockets but other deaths totally non related also occur, inflating the total death toll even more.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 26, 2020)

HTC said:


> Let me ask you this: excluding War periods, when was the last time you've known hospitals to be overwhelmed as they have been in China @ 1st, then in Italy and now in Spain?
> 
> @ the risk of sounding callous, the deaths don't matter: what matters is the number of those that require hospitalization and *THAT* number is *MUCH HIGHER* than the 1 - 2% of the death toll because THAT'S what overwhelms the hospitals.
> 
> ...



You bring up a VERY good point. Because COVID isn't the ONLY medical problem people face -- people still suffer heart attacks, sepsis, and other critical care health emergencies in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, critical medical emergencies that won't be able to be given the proper care/attention because the doctors, nurses and hospitals will be overwhelmed from the number of COVID-19 patients. 

I lost my father to a combination of sepsis and undiagnosed colon cancer (none of us knew he had it until it was too late) in June of 2018. He was in the ICU for 3 weeks, in and out of surgery. And I gotta be honest, I'm beginning to tear up just thinking about if that situation were to happen right now during this pandemic -- would he even be able to get the proper medical attention he required, or would his life have to be sacrificed so that  a COVID-19 patient could use his ICU bed and ventilator? 

OK, that's all I'm going to say because I can't see the keyboard through my tears.


----------



## HTC (Mar 26, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> You bring up a VERY good point. Because COVID isn't the ONLY medical problem people face -- people still suffer heart attacks, sepsis, and other critical care health emergencies in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, critical medical emergencies that won't be able to be given the proper care/attention because the doctors, nurses and hospitals will be overwhelmed from the number of COVID-19 patients.
> 
> I lost my father to a combination of sepsis and undiagnosed colon cancer (none of us knew he had it until it was too late) in June of 2018. He was in the ICU for 3 weeks, in and out of surgery. And I gotta be honest, I'm beginning to tear up just thinking about if that situation were to happen right now during this pandemic -- *would he even be able to get the proper medical attention he required, or would his life have to be sacrificed so that  a COVID-19 patient could use his ICU bed and ventilator?*
> 
> OK, that's all I'm going to say because I can't see the keyboard through my tears.


1st, my condolences.

If it were to happen today in any of the hard hit areas, *it's quite possible* it would, yes.

There's another aspect of hospital overwhelming that i was forgetting and this one is *MUCH MORE SERIOUS*: overwhelm hospitals long enough and you'll have a *COLLAPSING health system* because the health workers will become exhausted both physically as well as mentally.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 26, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> 75,000 sick, 7,500 dead in Italy. Death ratio of 10% when the medical system in a country is overwhelmed.


Consider what the numbers would be if influenza had no Tamiflu or vaccination.  Even with those things, the numbers every year are staggering (average of roughly 25 million _Americans_ per year) and still dwarfs COVID-19.  I'm with lexluthermiester, the patterns are similar just one is old and the other is new.  Even the symptoms are similar but COVID-19 starts with shortness of breath quicker.  Influenza can develop the same symptom via pneumonia.  Influenza-A put me in the ER two weeks ago...guess what I have now.


As others have stated, the problem isn't COVID-19 itself.  The problem is that people get sick anyway and this is *still* cold and flu season.  It's a triple whammy.

The other problem which is unique to COVID-19 is that it ravages the lungs.  Reduced lung function requires ventilators and there's a shortage of them.  Just pushing the vast number of cases down the road to when ventilators are more readily available will save a lot of people (see below).


So...uh...what's this got to do with maps?

Segue!  This was linked earlier in the thread and it bears repeating:





						Coronavirus Simulation
					

This simple simulation shows how social distancing helps slow the spread of viruses.




					corona.katapult-magazin.de
				



The goal right now is to be that model on the right.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 26, 2020)

I have a close friend with cancer at stage 4 that supposed to do a blood test every few weeks, MRI every few months, and going through chemotherapy, but now is afraid of going to the hospital and even a local clinic. COVID-19 is probably a certain death for her.



Gmr_Chick said:


> I lost my father to a combination of sepsis and undiagnosed colon cancer (none of us knew he had it until it was too late) in June of 2018. He was in the ICU for 3 weeks, in and out of surgery. And I gotta be honest, I'm beginning to tear up just thinking about if that situation were to happen right now during this pandemic -- would he even be able to get the proper medical attention he required, or would his life have to be sacrificed so that  a COVID-19 patient could use his ICU bed and ventilator?
> 
> OK, that's all I'm going to say because I can't see the keyboard through my tears.



I'm sorry to hear about your father.

Most modern hospitals have a quarantine department. COVID patients are kept there - unless there is a need for an immediate surgery, or the place is heavily crowded.

Hospitals move patients to and from ICU all the time.

Cancer patients are treated in oncology department unless there they're in a critical condition.

It is unlikely for COVID-19 patient to take a bed from cancer patient; unless, the hospital is overwhelmed and chaotic.

Since there is a week delay until COVID-19 shows any symptoms, hospitals are great places to catch the virus… probably much higher chances to catch it there than any other place.

The main concern is with cancer treatments (both pills and chemotherapy) have a serious negative effect on the immunity system. Patients with compromised immunity system won't able to handle the virus.

Ventilators are shared all around the hospital that can be a problem.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 26, 2020)

Here we go, more cases in Alaska.



> More than a dozen new cases have been recorded in Alaska, officials said Wednesday evening, totaling at least 59 cases across the state.
> 
> Chief Medical Officer Dr. Anne Zink said Wednesday that the number of cases includes 11 new ones from Anchorage, as well as cases from Homer, North Pole, and other locations. Eight of the new cases are in men and nine are in women. Two cases - one from Tuesday and one from Wednesday - are in Anchorage in critical condition. A third hospitalization was also announced, though location and condition were unknown at the time of publication.











						DHSS: New COVID-19 cases made public on Wednesday span from Homer to North Pole, two in critical condition
					

With 17 new cases reported Wednesday, Gov. Mike Dunleavy, along with officials from the State of Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, provided an update on the status of coronavirus in Alaska.




					www.ktuu.com
				




People need to listen to the guidelines such as social distancing, staying at home etc. otherwise this blows up much worse than people expected it too. it's a bleak future of what we have to deal with ahead of use. Don't want to sound all doom, and gloom but it's just getting started.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 26, 2020)

^ Yeah, agree completely. And yet, somebody VERY orange and VERY stupid wants this country "business-as-usual" just in time for Easter...


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 26, 2020)

Only if we have a therapeutic drug, or vaccine will it go back to business as usual.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 26, 2020)

So far with all those new rules on a daily basis its going to be martial law by easter.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 26, 2020)

Its a curve guys and I'm glad to see a fact based approach (social distancing) being picked up at large for the US as well. They kinda have no option, even Trump can say whatever he likes but it won't change a thing. Politics is the last thing people want right now. The good thing about a curve is that you can influence it and that is all you can realistically do here. The best thing is to do so as early and isolate as complete as possible, keeping your social circle to an absolute minimum for a few months. It doesn't matter whether you're infected or not, just doing your part is enough to put the lid on this.

And after that... its a slow return to the norm. There is absolutely no way things are business as usual even this Fall. We might see a return of social distancing measures at that point with a little break in summer.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 26, 2020)

^ My family likes to joke around and call me the "poster child for COVID-19 prevention" lol. I wash my hands constantly (20 seconds? Bah! Try a minute! ) with soap and warm water, use hand sanitizer religiously, I don't have any friends and thus no social life so I stay inside my house most of the time, so I got the "social distancing" thing covered -- and I was doing this well before COVID-19 became a thing, lol


----------



## Rahnak (Mar 26, 2020)

On a more positive note, it seems quarantine is finally having an effect on Italy's rate of new infections with 4 consecutive days below the peak of March 21st.


----------



## ne6togadno (Mar 26, 2020)

science 


			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR1mz5UxI56eH9GO4SfKdceu8YwA0G9y6wijZAQVbdC0fDC7-oDV_mDBYMs
		






						A Novel Coronavirus Genome Identified in a Cluster of Pneumonia Cases — Wuhan, China 2019−2020
					






					weekly.chinacdc.cn
				





			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30382-2/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR2eMvRj0oVkvJmBSN2lnV4lmlsxJSZzWD5FpEeiLKKuuqSsQEu2MVk-dN8
		


media








						China arrested 8 for spreading ‘hoaxes’ about what is now known as coronavirus. What happened to them?
					

More than 20 days have passed since eight people were detained in Wuhan for spreading 'misinformation'. The world doesn’t know much about what them




					www.poynter.org
				











						How early signs of the coronavirus were spotted, spread and throttled in China
					

(CAIXIN GLOBAL) - The new coronavirus that has claimed nearly 3,000 lives and spread to more than 50 countries was sequenced in Chinese labs - and found to be similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) - weeks before officials publicly identified it as the cause of a mysterious...




					www.straitstimes.com


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 26, 2020)

Thread dusted down. Take the discussions about govt. and media to the lounge (where it still might get removed).

I checked the links above and they're not populist nonsense. Poynter, on face, appears reasonable. The discussions aren't entirely without merit.

However, keep the discussions related to the spread, the stats, and it's geographic relevance.


Edit: Spain and Italy Covid-19 deaths now above 11,000. Not an insignificant number.


----------



## HTC (Mar 26, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 3544 confirmed infected
- 60 fatalities
- 43 recovered
- 2145 waiting for test results

There has been a reduction in the number of cases since yesterday but it's too early to tell if this is the effect of the country's measures or something else.



the54thvoid said:


> Edit: Spain and Italy Covid-19 deaths now above 11,000. Not an insignificant number.


These two countries account for OVER HALF of the total fatalities, thus far. If you add China's numbers, then it's roughly 2 / 3 of the entire death toll number.

Why am i bringing this up, you may ask? Because these 3 countries have a thing in common: they all had / have overwhelmed hospitals.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 26, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> 75,000 sick, 7,500 dead in Italy. Death ratio of 10% when the medical system in a country is overwhelmed.



I would just like to add something here. The medical system in Italy as a country was no overwhelmed, it was actually overwhelmed in few cities which got hit hard.
Now imagine if the system got hit nation-wide like most people think it did, the number of deaths would be staggering.









						Italy's coronavirus crisis
					

Tracking the daily toll of the virus




					graphics.reuters.com
				




If I remember correctly on the day with highest number of deaths which was ~750, around 500 of those came from Bergamo alone. 

And statistically every family in Bergamo lost a family member.

And doctors working in those hospitals said that they would not compare it to the flu, but should be compared to a sever case of pneumonia (now put yourself in a position where you get normal pneumonia but you don't have any antibiotics to cure it, would it be easy? I think not!).
Those people that compare it to the flu...it's your opinion, but don't try to force that opinion on others, that's a bit dangerous IMO.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 26, 2020)

repman244 said:


> Those people that compare it to the flu...it's your opinion, but don't try to force that opinion on others, that's a bit dangerous IMO.


Except that the numbers say otherwise. You are welcome to your opinion.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Except that the numbers say otherwise. You are welcome to your opinion.



Of course they do, we don't have lockdowns for the flu so the only real comparison with the flu numbers would be to cancel all the lockdowns and see what happens.
The effects of flu compared to the coronavirus are different - you are much more likely to sustain permanent damage on your organs from coronavirus then you are from the flu.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 26, 2020)

repman244 said:


> Of course they do, we don't have lockdowns for the flu so the only real comparison with the flu numbers would be to cancel all the lockdowns and see what happens.
> The effects of flu compared to the coronavirus are different - you are much more likely to sustain permanent damage on your organs from coronavirus then you are from the flu.


True and that will be an interesting result to see.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> True and that will be an interesting result to see.


The result would be millions and millions of dead - that to me is not interesting.


This video is from one hospital in Italy....just for you, listen at 1:30


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 26, 2020)

New daily numbers have been released for Louisiana: about 18,000 tests completed. 2,305 positive. That’s a growth of about 550 in a day.  Our first 10 have recovered.  83 deaths.

Of the positive tests, 676 are hospitalized, with 239 of those on ventilator. About 1,550 of the positive cases are concentrated in the population center of the New Orleans metro area.

It’s nice to be finally reporting some recoveries here.








						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 26, 2020)

repman244 said:


> The result would be millions and millions of dead - that to me is not interesting.


You're not a scientist. I am. I'm looking primarily at the science of all of this.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> You're not a scientist. I am. I'm looking primarily at the science of all of this.



Italy has a population of approximately 60m, if everyone got infected and if we apply the ~9% death rate we saw on the previous page...well you can do the math, after all you're a scientist.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 26, 2020)

More and better breakdown of stats for Oregon


groupCasesEver hospitalized‡Deaths*0 to 1950020 to 29193030 to 39394040 to 496314050 to 595212060 to 697028370 to 794021580 and over2783Not available1--*Total**316**90**11*


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 26, 2020)

1 of 4 (more) needed hospitalization... scary...

Ohio is about the same...704 positive, 182 hospitalized...


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 26, 2020)

As of now, USA has taken the #1 spot.




On other news, Russia claims to have only 840 cases.


----------



## HTC (Mar 26, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> New daily numbers have been released for Louisiana: about 18,000 tests completed. *2,305 positive*. That’s a growth of about 550 in a day.  Our first 10 have recovered.  83 deaths.
> 
> Of the positive tests, *676 are hospitalized, with 239 of those on ventilator*. About 1,550 of the positive cases are concentrated in the population center of the New Orleans metro area.
> 
> ...



10.37% of total infected require ventilator in Louisiana: what if that percentage holds true for the entire USA?

With 83507 cases as of today, that's a total of 8660 ventilators required. Keep in mind that, thus far in USA, there's no indication this virus will slow it's spread rate so how long until USA doesn't have enough ventilators for every COVID-19 case, not to mention all other medical problems that ALSO require them?

Portugal as a whole had roughly 1500 ventilators in the entire nation, and that includes ventilators from private institutions (that's 1500 roughly TOTAL: not available, because many are in use for other issues), but we've ordered another 500, though i have no idea when they'll become available. Ofc, Portugal is MUCH smaller than USA, so there's that but still ...


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 27, 2020)

repman244 said:


> The result would be millions and millions of dead - that to me is not interesting.
> 
> 
> This video is from one hospital in Italy....just for you, listen at 1:30



I watched that last night, actually. Goddamn.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

HTC said:


> 10.37% of total infected require ventilator in Louisiana: what if that percentage holds true for the entire USA?
> 
> With 83507 cases as of today, that's a total of 8660 ventilators required. Keep in mind that, thus far in USA, there's no indication this virus will slow it's spread rate so how long until USA doesn't have enough ventilators for every COVID-19 case, not to mention all other medical problems that ALSO require them?
> 
> Portugal as a whole had roughly 1500 ventilators in the entire nation, and that includes ventilators from private institutions (that's 1500 roughly TOTAL: not available, because many are in use for other issues), but we've ordered another 500, though i have no idea when they'll become available. Ofc, Portugal is MUCH smaller than USA, so there's that but still ...


Either way, no matter where one is, if 10% holds constant, then there aren’t enough ventilators anywhere.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 27, 2020)

As of 2018, USA had ~160,000 ventilators.  As long as the cases requiring hospitalization slows down soon...USA will be fine.  USA healthcare system can handle 3-4 more ICU cases than any other country per 100k.

The main concern right now is safety of healthcare workers...that's masks.  Ventilators become a problem if the curve isn't flattened.


----------



## joemama (Mar 27, 2020)

Does anyone really believe in China's data?


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> As of 2018, USA had ~160,000 ventilators.  As long as the cases requiring hospitalization slows down soon...USA will be fine.


I was just about to give you that number. The places where it is worst now are running out. An overall number is not a good measure.  New orleans is  early at full ventilator capacity.  Places not at full capacity will not ship them out elsewhere.  Nor should they, because they will need them eventually.  The national reserve stockpile is not a huge number. It will be zero very soon.


----------



## HTC (Mar 27, 2020)

Portugal's bank is already estimating Portugal's 2020's economy will tank from 3.7% to 5.7%.

Most countries are trying to purchase medical supplies from outside their borders (China? Elsewhere?) and the demand for these supplies will only increase: how long until the manufacturers can't satisfy all orders and, even if they manage to satisfy them, how long until they do it?

I think it's time the various countries SERIOUSLY consider re-tooling some factories in order to manufacture the supplies themselves: like what happened during WW2 but, instead of weapons, medical supplies, from ventilators, masks, ... toilet paper ..., whatever else is needed.

I've got NO IDEA how this could be achieved, logistically and legally speaking, but i think it's imperative they start AS SOON AS POSSIBLE because this sort of thing doesn't happen overnight as it requires specialized equipment and workers.

This is needed in the hopes the CURRENT manufacturers of these medical supplies don't get overtaxed themselves, @ which point, a shortage could end up making this crisis prolong itself, and NOBODY wants that.



FordGT90Concept said:


> USA has 10s of thousands if not 100s of thousands of ventilators.  New York just received 2000 with another 2000 en route.  As long as the cases requiring hospitalization slows down soon...USA will be fine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's a ventilator for every 2K people: by comparison, Portugal has a ventilator for every 6667 people.

Is there a statistic of how many are being used, on average? Such data could tell us roughly how many available for COVID-19.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 27, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I was just about to give you that number. The places where it is worst now are running out. An overall number is not a good measure.  New orleans is  early at full ventilator capacity.  Places not at full capacity will not ship them out elsewhere.  Nor should they, because they will need them eventually.  The national reserve stockpile is not a huge number. It will be zero very soon.


Yeah...and it's been said that production isn't going to see serious ramping for months yet because of the logistics and design problems.  That's why everyone is getting deathly serious about quarantine.  It's the only way to ensure that doctors don't have to decide who lives or dies.

There's talk about repurposing anesthesia equipment for COVID-19 patients too...



HTC said:


> Is there a statistic of how many are being used, on average? Such data could tell us roughly how many available for COVID-19.


No idea.  Hospitals are probably too busy dealing with the situation to keep track.  The idea is to not let it get to that point in the first place.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 27, 2020)

What about Dyson's ventilator? 









						Billionaire James Dyson Confirms His Company Will Make An Initial Order Of 10,000 Ventilators In The U.K.
					

A spokesman for Dyson confirmed to Forbes that an initial order of 10,000 units from the U.K. government has been placed, and work will begin immediately at the historic air force base RAF Hullavington.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 27, 2020)

Tesla, Ford, Fiat, GM, and now Dyson have said they will produce ventilators.  Again, same problem: they are needed now.  Article doesn't say when the first shipments will go out.


> The call for ventilators came after the U.K.’s Department for Health and Social Care warned that the reported *8,175 devices currently available to the 60 million people* across Britain and Northern Ireland are not nearly enough.


Ouch!


----------



## HTC (Mar 27, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Yeah...and it's been said that production isn't going to see serious ramping for months yet because of the logistics and design problems.  That's why everyone is getting deathly serious about quarantine.  It's the only way to ensure that doctors don't have to decide who lives or dies.
> 
> There's talk about repurposing anesthesia equipment for COVID-19 patients too...
> 
> ...



I'm was wondering from a time pre-COVID-19: perhaps as late as January this year, or maybe last year, or even the year before? This type of data would be VERY helpful.



> The call for ventilators came after the U.K.’s Department for Health and Social Care warned that the reported *8,175 devices currently available to the 60 million people* across Britain and Northern Ireland are not nearly enough.



That's a ventilator for every 7340 people: even worse than Portugal. No idea if that's the number of CURRENTLY not-in-use ventilators or if that number is the actual total, including those that are currently being used for other medical problems.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 27, 2020)

It does say "currently available" as in not total.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

I thought I’d leave this article here. New Orleans is about to open up its biggest convention center for 1,100 beds. It’s actually a pretty level-headed article.

I thought it interesting because it also taks about ventilator numbers, or rather the lack of them.  Also, New Orleans has been following a skyrocketing path like New York. The two have been among the fastest growing in the U.S.





__





						To prep for overflow of coronaavirus patients, beds moved in New Orleans convention center | Coronavirus | nola.com
					





					www.nola.com


----------



## HTC (Mar 27, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I thought I’d leave this article here. New Orleans is about to open up its biggest convention center for 1,100 beds. It’s actually a pretty level-headed article. I thought it interesting because it also taks about ventilator numbers, or rather the lack of them soon.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Something wrong with the link because all i get is a blank page.



FordGT90Concept said:


> It does say "currently available" as in not total.


In Portugal's case the actual number of available (for COVID-19) is much smaller than 1500, because a significant part is in use from other medical issues, but i don't have an estimate of the number of free ventilators we have.

Most programmed surgeries in Portugal have been postponed with only those that can't wait going ahead: the government ordered this in the hopes of freeing medical personnel and ventilators to use with this virus and delay our eventual shortage as long as possible.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

HTC said:


> Something wrong with the link because all i get is a blank page.


It worked for me testing it out. I re-posted. Try it now.


----------



## HTC (Mar 27, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> It worked for me testing it out. I re-posted. Try it now.


Nope.

Perhaps it has to do with my location?

EDIT

Never mind: went to https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/ and clicked on the link you mentioned and that worked.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 27, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Ok, now things are getting a bit scary.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Are they really, or do we need to be VERY careful about what we link and check our content a bit more?





Chloe was coughing and suddenly died. Must be Corona, right?

Please... this is the kind of news that doesn't help anyone. Zero substance. But very easy to see a head line copy pasted for days. This is how you get fake news taken for real. Its even from the Guardian, they should be ashamed of themselves.



FordGT90Concept said:


> Tesla, Ford, Fiat, GM, and now Dyson have said they will produce ventilators.  Again, same problem: they are needed now.  Article doesn't say when the first shipments will go out.
> 
> Ouch!



They key is being extremely selective with who you place on the ICU and also 'when'. This is part of what went wrong in Italy and Spain. Early move to ICUs taking up valuable equipment and bed for several days when its not needed, and in many cases, in hindsight was never truly required at all.

Here in the Netherlands the vast majority of deaths never saw the ICU because quite simply, it would not have benefited them regardless. We've been quicker than Italy and Spain in saying 'this is a lost case' - or more politically correct: 'the quality of life post ICU will be too low to make the effort'. Family gets involved in those decisions, too. Its part of the reason the elderly have a higher death rate, hospitalization would not bring them anything, they're too weak to fight it anyway.

I really do wonder how the US healthcare system responds to these ethical choices at this time, I honestly have no idea or view on how that works over there. Do you?


----------



## P4-630 (Mar 27, 2020)

_"What we know about the 16-year-old girl who is France's youngest coronavirus victim"_


			https://www.thelocal.fr/20200327/what-we-know-about-frances-youngest-coronavirus-victim


----------



## Frick (Mar 27, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> On and off ignore list twice.



This is off topic, but I'm not a fan of the ignore function. It's so easy to not read posts.



Regeneration said:


> On other news, Russia claims to have only 840 cases.



That could be an accurate number, as in that is how many have tested positive and they are not testing many. Sweden only reports some 2000 cases, but that is because we only test people in risk groups. It is basically assumed that if you get a cold it's COVID-19 and we are supposed to self isolate in such cases. Meanwhile, busses in Stockholm were jam packed with people due to a "driver shortage". Also we get our paychecks on the 25th so it's now the salary weekend which means people have money to spend again. We'll see how the weekend goes, apparently the 25th was pretty normal according to the police...


----------



## Rahnak (Mar 27, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> They key is being extremely selective with who you place on the ICU and also 'when'. This is part of what went wrong in Italy and Spain. Early move to ICUs taking up valuable equipment and bed for several days when its not needed, and in many cases, in hindsight was never truly required at all.
> 
> Here in the Netherlands the vast majority of deaths never saw the ICU because quite simply, it would not have benefited them regardless. We've been quicker than Italy and Spain in saying 'this is a lost case' - or more politically correct: 'the quality of life post ICU will be too low to make the effort'. Family gets involved in those decisions, too. Its part of the reason the elderly have a higher death rate, hospitalization would not bring them anything, they're too weak to fight it anyway.


Yeah, that's a fundamental difference between southern and northen people (or countries, if you will) that's already causing some tension in the EU, as yesterday's meeting showed. Simply put, latins don't view family the same way (a sizeable amount anyway, younger generations seem to be getting more disensitized).
For example, the 95 year old grandmother that got cured in Italy would've probably gotten a death sentence in the Netherlands or Germany.

The US being a mish-mash of people, how they tackle the issue could honestly go either way, I think. Places where latin ancestry run deeper might aim to save everyone, whereas those with stronger nordic roots might be more calculated in their approach.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 27, 2020)

Add British Donald Trump (aka Boris Johnson for the locals) to the list









						UK coronavirus live: rate of infection doubling every three to four days, says Gove – as it happened
					

Death toll rises by 181 to 759, the sharpest increase so far, with Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and Chris Whitty all now in self-isolation




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 27, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Add British Donald Trump (aka Boris Johnson for the locals) to the list
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Just shows you how prevalent this little virus is.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 27, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Add British Donald Trump (aka Boris Johnson for the locals) to the list
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The scary thing here is, if he comes out of this unscathed, he might call off all the measures put in place, as it really wasn't all that bad...



the54thvoid said:


> Just shows you how prevalent this little virus is.


You mean because it even attacks politicians? I feel sorry for the virus in this case...


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

Rahnak said:


> Yeah, that's a fundamental difference between southern and northen people (or countries, if you will) that's already causing some tension in the EU, as yesterday's meeting showed. Simply put, latins don't view family the same way (a sizeable amount anyway, younger generations seem to be getting more disensitized).
> For example, the 95 year old grandmother that got cured in Italy would've probably gotten a death sentence in the Netherlands or Germany.
> 
> The US being a mish-mash of people, how they tackle the issue could honestly go either way, I think. Places where latin ancestry run deeper might aim to save everyone, whereas those with stronger nordic roots might be more calculated in their approach.


Here in the U.S. most of the medical professionals have talked about not being equipped mentally to make choices. The prevailing attitude here is “save everybody.”









						To prep for overflow of coronaavirus patients, beds moved in New Orleans convention center
					

Louisiana is taking drastic steps to surge its medical capacity to prepare for what officials fear could be an overwhelming tide of coronavirus patients in the coming days, with the




					www.nola.com
				




yay, I finally got the article I kept trying to link last evening to post  properly.


----------



## HTC (Mar 27, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 4268 confirmed infected
- 76 fatalities
- 43 recovered
- 3995 waiting for test results

Does NOT look good: if even 20% of those waiting for the results turn out positive, that's more than the increase we had today, which is already the highest of all thus far, and as we ramp up testing, it will only get worse 

Our measures thus far are CLEARLY NOT ENOUGH.


----------



## P4-630 (Mar 27, 2020)

_"Condom Shortage Looms After Coronavirus Lockdown Shuts World's Top Producer (Malaysia)"_








						Condom Shortage Looms After Coronavirus Lockdown Shuts World's Top Producer
					

A global shortage of condoms is looming, the world's biggest producer said, after a coronavirus lockdown forced it to shut down production.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 27, 2020)

Doesn't look like this has been added here yet. Pretty extensive tool for viewing reported figures.  Monster link so it's in spoilers. Can't find anything to remove from it, I think it's all critical.



Spoiler






			https://accelerator.weather.com/bi/?perspective=dashboard&pathRef=.public_folders%2FCOVID19%2FDashboards%2FDS%2FCOVID-19%2B%2528Coronavirus%2529%2BGlobal%2BStatistics&id=iC2B38B09B142481EB83935F6419CA837&objRef=iC2B38B09B142481EB83935F6419CA837&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BcanvasExtension%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.canvasExtension&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BfeatureExtension%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.core-features&options%5Bcollections%5D%5Bbuttons%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.buttons&options%5Bcollections%5D%5Bwidget%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.widgets&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BcontentFeatureExtension%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.content-features&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BboardModel%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.boardModelExtension&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BsaveServices%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.saveServices&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BserviceExtension%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.serviceExtension&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BlayoutExtension%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.layoutExtension&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BvisualizationExtension%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.visualizationExtensionCA&options%5Bcollections%5D%5BcolorSetExtensions%5D%5Bid%5D=com.ibm.bi.dashboard.colorSetExtensions&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BsmartTitle%5D=false&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BeditPropertiesLabel%5D=true&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BnavigationGroupAction%5D=true&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BenableDataQuality%5D=false&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BmemberCalculation%5D=false&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BassetTags%5D%5B%5D=dashboard&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BfilterDock%5D=true&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BshowMembers%5D=true&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BassetType%5D=exploration&options%5Bconfig%5D%5BgeoService%5D=CA&subView=model00000170d0563f5d_00000000&isAuthoringMode=false&boardId=iC2B38B09B142481EB83935F6419CA837


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> - 4268 confirmed infected
> - 76 fatalities
> ...


Measures will not show up for at least a couple weeks.  In the meantime, it can certainly appear things are getting worse as more get infected and more die.

I've been reading about the New Orleans Infection rate going back and forth with several New York Counties.  Numbers-wise, NYC is bad, no doubt.  For our size, the per capita positive rate is really bad as well. Now I saw this.  Apparently Orleans Parish (which comprises the whole city of New Orleans) has the highest per capita death rate. This article talks about what is the better metric: per capita death rate, or the number of deaths per infection numbers.  









						Orleans Parish has highest per-capita coronavirus death rate of American counties -- by far
					

Orleans Parish has the highest per-capita death rate for the coronavirus among all American counties to date, a new analysis by The Times-Picayune | The Advocate shows.




					www.nola.com


----------



## repman244 (Mar 27, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Measures will not show up for at least a couple weeks.  In the meantime, it can certainly appear things are getting worse as more get infected and more die.
> 
> I've been reading about the New Orleans Infection rate going back and forth with several New York Counties.  Numbers-wise, NYC is bad, no doubt.  For our size, the per capita positive rate is really bad as well. Now I saw this.  Apparently Orleans Parish (which comprises the whole city of New Orleans) has the highest per capita death rate. This article talks about what is the better metric: per capita death rate, or the number of deaths per infection numbers.
> 
> ...



Number of deaths per infected is a bit tricky - it depends on the testing method used. In my country, only those with more severe symptoms, elderly and those which potentially can have a severe case are tested.
If you have mild symptoms, they won't test you and you are ordered to isolate and stay at home - but you are not counted as infected.


----------



## HTC (Mar 27, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> *Measures will not show up for at least a couple weeks.  In the meantime, it can certainly appear things are getting worse as more get infected and more die.*



I know but emergency state has been declared 10 days ago already, and that's after some lighter measures had already been in place.

The more we "let it" spread early on, the harder it gets to contain later on, IMO.

Our current death rate stands @ 1.7% of infected: the vast majority are elderly people with 70+ years of age.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

HTC said:


> I know but emergency state has been declared 10 days ago already, and that's after some lighter measures had already been in place.
> 
> *The more we "let it" spread early on, the harder it gets to contain later on, IMO.*
> 
> Our current death rate stands @ 1.7% of infected: the vast majority are elderly people with 70+ years of age.


I think your opinion has some validity.  Being relaxed in the beginning really hurts.  We had Mardi Gras here in the New Orleans area for two weeks when cases were already appearing in the U.S.  Nobody got serious about combatting it here until about 10 days ago either.









						Cantrell: New Orleans would have called off Mardi Gras if coronavirus 'red flags' were raised
					

With national media giving New Orleans heat for not canceling this year's Mardi Gras celebration as the coronavirus epidemic spread overseas, Mayor LaToya Cantrell blasted federal leadership Thursday night and




					www.nola.com


----------



## repman244 (Mar 27, 2020)

HTC said:


> The more we "let it" spread early on, the harder it gets to contain later on, IMO.



This.
The only way to catch it early on is: test, test, test as much as possible. If you see increasing numbers it's time to shut down. 
You still won't catch everyone with the testing, and one of our infectologists said that to get the approximate number of real infections is to multiply the confirmed cases by 5x (but only if you test enough people of course).


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 27, 2020)

repman244 said:


> This.
> The only way to catch it early on is: test, test, test as much as possible. *If you see increasing numbers it's time to shut down.*
> You still won't catch everyone with the testing, and one of our infectologists said that to get the approximate number of real infections is to multiply the confirmed cases by 5x (but only if you test enough people of course).


Nah we're way past that, over here we have less than 1k cases & still there's virtually a nationwide curfew. The only way to *slow the spread now* is either curfews or martial law, wherever applicable! And we'll need to be in lockdown for months to get over it, let alone "flattening" the curve.


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 27, 2020)

repman244 said:


> Number of deaths per infected is a bit tricky - it depends on the testing method used. In my country, only those with more severe symptoms, elderly and those which potentially can have a severe case are tested.
> If you have mild symptoms, they won't test you and you are ordered to isolate and stay at home - but you are not counted as infected.


Plus you have to consider the efficacy of the testing product. Didn't a large quantity of test just get kicked out because they were defective somewhere?


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 27, 2020)

Well looks like we're on track for possibly 1M confirmed infections before the end of the month. Something has to give & it's like we haven't even reached the *inflection point *yet!


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> inflection point


I'm mot proud. I'll admit it. Since maths were not my field, and never my strong suit I had to look it up. A light bulb went off and I remembered learning that. LOL.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 27, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Plus you have to consider the efficacy of the testing product. Didn't a large quantity of test just get kicked out because they were defective somewhere?



I heard that as well.
A thing to consider is also that you can test a sick (without symptoms) person, get a negative result, but the same person can be positive the next day - these are very hard to track down and catch.
My country is doing around 1000 tests per day since beginning of first confirmed case - one of the highest testing numbers per capita. And so far we have a very linear curve, similar case is south korea I think.


----------



## dir_d (Mar 27, 2020)

Am i the only ones that think that some countries are not reporting their numbers and or not testing people as well. Do we really think China has flatten the curve and still no word on India. I know in the US testing just got better so our numbers are going to sky rocket due to that.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

Here are Louisiana’s latest numbers. The number of infected only grew by about 400, but it grew in the 400’s yesterday. Dare I think that it might be starting to slow down? IDK. If it holds to smaller growths the next few days it might be possible.

2,746 cases. 773 hospitalized (with 270 of those on ventilator).  That’s only a small increase from 239 yesterday, but deaths increased, from 83 to 119. There have been about 21,000 tests completed.

The interesting thing is we still hold at about 10% of cases are on ventilator. Total hospitalized is about 25%.









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 27, 2020)

Record high number of deaths in Italy and the UK today


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 27, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> I really do wonder how the US healthcare system responds to these ethical choices at this time, I honestly have no idea or view on how that works over there. Do you?


Hippocratic oath is law here.  They help everyone they can to the best of their ability.

Triage is the same everywhere though: if you're out of resources you have to help those with the best chance of survival.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 27, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Dare I think that it might be starting to slow down? IDK.


Something needs to happen now to swing it in the other direction or were all screwed.

Everyone has a part in how this can end up, assuming people are not being selfish.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 27, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Everybody wants to stop the virus.



Apparently they don't because people under lockdown aren't listening.   Looking at you California, Washington, and New York.  In fact, all the New Yorkers are coming to my area and spreading the shit.  Causing our local amenities to get locked down etc.  Thank You for caring about others.

What I find the most entertaining is that these are the same people complaining about the handling of everything by our government.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 27, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Here are Louisiana’s latest numbers. The number of infected only grew by about 400, but it grew in the 400’s yesterday. Dare I think that it might be starting to slow down? IDK. If it holds to smaller growths the next few days it might be possible.
> 
> 2,746 cases. 773 hospitalized (with 270 of those on ventilator).  That’s only a small increase from 239 yesterday, but deaths increased, from 83 to 119. There have been about 21,000 tests completed.
> 
> ...



Do you maybe know who gets tested in the US? Everyone that has symptoms or only those with severe symptoms and higher age?


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

repman244 said:


> Do you maybe know who gets tested in the US? Everyone that has symptoms or only those with severe symptoms and higher age?


Honestly, it has varied by state.  Here, it is people with severe symptoms.  Up until a week ago it was mostly healthcare workers and first responders who had symptoms. Tests have become much more plentiful.  Minor symptoms though, and my doctor is just going to order me to stay in the house and monitor.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 27, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Apparently they don't because people under lockdown aren't listening.   Looking at you California, Washington, and New York.  In fact, all the New Yorkers are coming to my area and spreading the shit.  Causing our local amenities to get locked down etc.  Thank You for caring about others.
> 
> What I find the most entertaining is that these are the same people complaining about the handling of everything by our government.


Same deal here. We're a snowbird town. Many New Yorkers have winter homes here because it's cheaper and more remote. Usually it starts getting too hot for em around April... but instead of getting ready to go, they brought relatives/friends down. Insane amount of NY plates. Most of the snowbirds keep vehicles registered to FL here. Seeing all of those yellow plates here is pretty weird.

Also interesting to see pretty much exclusively them on the roads... considering they don't live here and thus aren't going to work. Why are they out and about so much more?

Another general observation... hate to be that guy but they really are inconsiderate in general. I mean... it's not thier hometown so what do they care? The sentiment shows. People from here are proud of thier communities... things are different when the other folks go back home.



repman244 said:


> Do you maybe know who gets tested in the US? Everyone that has symptoms or only those with severe symptoms and higher age?


Where I'm at, you have to show symptoms. I know people who have been directly exposed to known, symptomatic carriers but can't get tests themselves. They're guarded like Jewish gold in wartime.

It's still a huge problem. Yes tests do fail and we can't account for everyone. But I'd argue that's why we need to churn out as many as physically possible. Ideally somewhere on the order of a billion. It's a tall order, but no less vital. We need to know where as many carriers as we can identify and trace are at... as well as get a real picture of where they're popping up and at what rate. Just in order to determine what is needed where...


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 27, 2020)

Pangolins carry strains related to new coronavirus - BBC News
					

Smuggled pangolins were carrying viruses closely related to the one sweeping the world, say scientists.




					www.bbc.com


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 27, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Honestly, it has varied by state.


Sounds like you need a doctor's note to get tested up here in Alaska.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 27, 2020)

Great tool for doomsday projections ~



			Epidemic Calculator


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> Sounds like you need a doctor's note to get tested up here in Alaska.


Pretty much here too. My doctor has to refer me. Those without doctors can call a number and be evaluated by phone or facetime basically.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 27, 2020)

So, not only our PM, but our Health Minister is confirmed positive and the chief medical officer is showing the symptoms.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 27, 2020)

I wonder if leaders the world over are ignoring the signs, even *mild symptoms*, of nCoV infection. Not such a good time to be a politician not to mention those in the medical field


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 27, 2020)

Well, here's what happens when the system is overloaded and can no longer cope:

Italy recorded a record 969 deaths today, bringing the total for Italian Covid-19 related deaths to 9134. But under all that is a pretty sad number: 46 doctors have died since the outbreak. The infection is slowing but there's a lag with deaths and the hospitals can't cope. UK also had it's highest climb in deaths today.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 27, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Same deal here. We're a snowbird town. Many New Yorkers have winter homes here because it's cheaper and more remote. Usually it starts getting too hot for em around April... but instead of getting ready to go, they brought relatives/friends down. Insane amount of NY plates. Most of the snowbirds keep vehicles registered to FL here. Seeing all of those yellow plates here is pretty weird.
> 
> Also interesting to see pretty much exclusively them on the roads... considering they don't live here and thus aren't going to work. Why are they out and about so much more?
> 
> Another general observation... hate to be that guy but they really are inconsiderate in general. I mean... it's not thier hometown so what do they care? The sentiment shows. People from here are proud of thier communities... things are different when the other folks go back home.



Because as usual, the rules don't apply to you (the royal you, not you).  Your home state gets locked down so you come down here and spread all your shit around.  Half of them flew through the airports which are nothing but cesspools on a good day.  The rest of them huffed it down in the cars.  Our governor even said if you are coming in from out of state then you need to quarantine for two weeks to prevent all the knuckle heads from doing what they are doing.  Again, thanks a bunch.  Don't forget to yell at your TV for what a terrible job everyone else is doing.

But I digress.  Really, it is unavoidable.  There is a very good chance that everyone in the US will be exposed to it anyway.  I just really thought this would bring everybody together much like 9/11 but I guess that is too much ask.  Apparently, we need to stay partisan and self serving.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 27, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> I just really thought this would bring everybody together much like 9/11



This is in no way a personal attack, rather, I found something tragic in that statement. It demonstrates how terrible humanity is that it requires a disaster to bring us together. We should be united regardless; after all, we share the same rocky home and breath the same free air. 

It's just a shame, that's all, that our petty differences prise us apart.


----------



## hat (Mar 27, 2020)

I'm sure someone could chime in about tribalism, or herd mentality or somesuch... when there's no threat, we have business as usual... but when there's a common threat that threatens to affect all of us, the petty shit gets pushed aside until the threat is removed... and then we can go back to being petty. Some survival mechanic or somesuch, I'm sure...


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Our governor even said if you are coming in from out of state then you need to quarantine for two weeks


I know Texas just said anyone who flies in from New Orleans must quarantine for two weeks.  This is what happens when nobody wants to stop the 50 governors from making their own rules.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 27, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> This is in no way a personal attack, rather, I found something tragic in that statement. It demonstrates how terrible humanity is that it requires a disaster to bring us together. We should be united regardless; after all, we share the same rocky home and breath the same free air.
> 
> It's just a shame, that's all, that our petty differences prise us apart.



I agree with you 100%.



rtwjunkie said:


> I know Texas just said anyone who flies in from New Orleans must quarantine for two weeks.  This is what happens when nobody wants to stop the 50 governors from making their own rules.



I don't have a problem with the quarantining if you are traveling in.  What bothers me is that these people were told to stay at home unless you have to do something essential.  Travelling to your second home that does not have a stay-at-home order is not essential.  It is even worse when you are bringing the germs with you.  It is even worse worse when you then turn around and criticize others for their handling of the issue when you can't follow basic instructions.

NOTE:  All references to 'you' are royal.


----------



## lsevald (Mar 27, 2020)

In Norway you are not allowed to sleep over in your second home/cabin now because the local health care there isn't scaled for the extra people that might get sick.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 27, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> I don't have a problem with the quarantining if you are traveling in. What bothers me is that these people were told to stay at home unless you have to do something essential. Travelling to your second home that does not have a stay-at-home order is not essential. It is even worse when you are bringing the germs with you. It is even worse worse when you then turn around and criticize others for their handling of the issue when you can't follow basic instructions.


I agree totally. I just pointed it out because we are not on one sheet of music. We have 50 standards going on right now instead of one. Dang Florida at least up until recently didnt even have one set of rules for the state, letting each municipality set the restrictions. That is no way to fight a pandemic.


----------



## Caring1 (Mar 27, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> .... assuming people are not being selfish.


Sorry had to laugh at this, because, human nature.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 27, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Apparently they don't because *people under lockdown aren't listening. *  Looking at you California, Washington, and New York.  In fact, all the New Yorkers are coming to my area and spreading the shit.  Causing our local amenities to get locked down etc.  Thank You for caring about others.



Totally sounds like my brother-in-law, lol. I'm in California, and the state is basically under a blanket "shelter-in-place" order (only essential things like buying food, medicine, etc. are allowed). My sister has had lung problems all her life (bronchitis, pneumonia), my mom is 65 with a couple underlying medical conditions, but she still thinks her immune system is a healthy 20 years old... So what does the f#$ktard go and do? He INVITES his friend from work over to the house for dinner and watching some MMA fight! I was so damn pissed. I was the only one though -- nobody else seemed to really care. I stayed in my room the entire time the guy was here. I don't know about my family sometimes. I worry about them, but they just tell me to stop "being so paranoid" 



TheLostSwede said:


> Pangolins carry strains related to new coronavirus - BBC News
> 
> 
> Smuggled pangolins were carrying viruses closely related to the one sweeping the world, say scientists.
> ...


That is...one of the ugliest creatures I've ever seen!


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 28, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I agree totally. I just pointed it out because we are not on one sheet of music. We have 50 standards going on right now instead of one. Dang Florida at least up until recently didnt even have one set of rules for the state, letting each municipality set the restrictions. That is no way to fight a pandemic.



I dunno, sometimes I feel local as possible is best.  What works for one area may not work the others.  I don't really know what to make of this as the pain is coming.  That said, I didn't need my beach closed because jerks from other states can't be bothered to do their part.


Gmr_Chick said:


> Totally sounds like my brother-in-law, lol. I'm in California, and the state is basically under a blanket "shelter-in-place" order (only essential things like buying food, medicine, etc. are allowed). My sister has had lung problems all her life (bronchitis, pneumonia), my mom is 65 with a couple underlying medical conditions, but she still thinks her immune system is a healthy 20 years old... So what does the f#$ktard go and do? He INVITES his friend from work over to the house for dinner and watching some MMA fight! I was so damn pissed. I was the only one though -- nobody else seemed to really care. I stayed in my room the entire time the guy was here. I don't know about my family sometimes. I worry about them, but they just tell me to stop "being so paranoid"



I don't necessarily have a problem with a friend or two.  It is good for the brain to keep some normalcy but it is tough to know where the line needs to be drawn.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 28, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> I dunno, sometimes I feel local as possible is best.  What works for one area may not work the others.  I don't really know what to make of this as the pain is coming.  That said, I didn't need my beach closed because jerks from other states can't be bothered to do their part.
> .
> 
> I don't necessarily have a problem with a friend or two.  It is good for the brain to keep some normalcy but it is tough to know where the line needs to be drawn.



Except....The beach is going to close anyway. This thing transmits like nobody’s business. And it’s made worse when every area has different enforcement, allowing people to carry the disease everywhere.

The people like this coming to Gmr_Chick’s house not taking things seriously are who allow the transmissions we have seen at the high rate. I put up with those types up until last Friday at my workplace, hanging out in the lunch room carrying on as if there is no disease, and getting into my 6 foot personal space constantly. So I get why @Gmr_Chick is upset at people coming over and breaking the crucial isolation.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> Sorry had to laugh at this, because, human nature.


I know, see at work all the time. Everyone is only concerned with themselves no one else matters except *me.*


----------



## HTC (Mar 28, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, here's what happens when the system is overloaded and can no longer cope:
> 
> Italy recorded a record 969 deaths today, bringing the total for Italian Covid-19 related deaths to 9134. But under all that is a pretty sad number: 46 doctors have died since the outbreak. The infection is slowing but there's a lag with deaths and the hospitals can't cope. UK also had it's highest climb in deaths today.


Italy's measures HAVE worked, but only to some extent: they brought the exponential growth down and, instead of doubling the number of cases in roughly 5 days, they now double them in roughly 13 days: while that's a big improvement, it STILL means there's something amiss and, despite all the measures they took, this bloody virus is STILL spreading.

The only way they'll manage to bring the deaths down significantly is to have plenty of ventilators AND medical workers to spare: right now, they have neither because a significant amount of medical workers have caught this virus themselves, thus REDUCING their "combat force" and, as we all know, they are in dire need of more ventilators, as is pretty much every single country that is being hit hard by this virus.

Yesterday i said Portugal had roughly 1500 ventilators, right? According to what was on a Portuguese news channel about 30 minutes ago, we actually have a grand total of ... 1142 ventilators ...

Portugal has ordered 500 ventilators but i have no idea when they'll arrive 


Since most countries except China have implemented "lighter" measures than Italy and Italy's measures aren't working fast enough for Italy, it's bound to not work for other countries either 

*We NEED to change the way we're approaching this !!!*


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Totally sounds like my brother-in-law, lol. I'm in California, and the state is basically under a blanket "shelter-in-place" order (only essential things like buying food, medicine, etc. are allowed). My sister has had lung problems all her life (bronchitis, pneumonia), my mom is 65 with a couple underlying medical conditions, but she still thinks her immune system is a healthy 20 years old... So what does the f#$ktard go and do? He INVITES his friend from work over to the house for dinner and watching some MMA fight! I was so damn pissed. I was the only one though -- nobody else seemed to really care. I stayed in my room the entire time the guy was here. I don't know about my family sometimes. I worry about them, but they just tell me to stop "being so paranoid"
> 
> 
> That is...one of the ugliest creatures I've ever seen!



Luckily, he invited just a single friend. And I understand you... its the principle of it, and being protective of the family.

I went to the local grocery store today to buy some food for the weekend. On the way, I saw a bunch of lowlifes having beer at the park. Normally, I just ignore these "kinds", and mind my own business. This time however, I tried to provoke them passively (eyeballed), with no response what so ever


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 28, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Luckily, he invited just a single friend. And I understand you... its the principle of it, and being protective of the family.
> 
> I went to the local grocery store today to buy some food for the weekend. On the way, I saw a bunch of lowlifes having beer at the park. Normally, I just ignore these "kinds", and mind my own business. This time however, I tried to provoke them passively (eyeballed), with no response what so ever



Depending on the neighborhood in California or else where you might just get shot.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 28, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Except....The beach is going to close anyway. This thing transmits like nobody’s business. And it’s made worse when every area has different enforcement, allowing people to carry the disease everywhere.
> 
> The people like this coming to Gmr_Chick’s house not taking things seriously are who allow the transmissions we have seen at the high rate. I put up with those types up until last Friday at my workplace, hanging out in the lunch room carrying on as if there is no disease, and getting into my 6 foot personal space constantly. So I get why @Gmr_Chick is upset at people coming over and breaking the crucial isolation.



I agree with you and disagree with you at the same time.  A friend of mine's wife has lupus so I try to be extra careful with them and really try to abide by their wishes.  It's just not worth it.  But my wife and I run with a little more leeway.  We talked with my wife's parents who are older and all agreed to just keep distance.  My parents don't care as much so we go to the park and stuff.  Anything else is a game time decision.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 28, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> So, not only our PM, but our Health Minister is confirmed positive and the chief medical officer is showing the symptoms.


Unfortunately this was bound to happen. The good news however, the odds are strongly in they're favor.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> Depending on the neighborhood in California or else where you might just get shot.



Yes, that kind of people. Unfortunately, I look like a jacked up middle eastern, and also carried several water tanks with a single arm. If there is one thing 'gangstas' are afraid of, is terrorists.

They have no business hanging in a park near my house on a regular day and definitely not during COVID-19 lockdown. That pisses me off.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 28, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Yes, that kind of people. Unfortunately, I look like a jacked up middle eastern, and also carried several water tanks with a single arm. If there is one thing 'gangstas' are afraid of, is terrorists.
> 
> They have no business hanging in a park near my house on a regular day and definitely not during COVID-19 lockdown. That pisses me off.



Just be careful, Is all.

Was just reading the news about a "Hit Up" yesterday at a park, left 1 dead.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 28, 2020)

It's happened. The US now has the most cases documented.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

You know, I've been watching the things I've been saying from the beginning come true and still it's like nobody around me really listens. They parrot the little soundbites they liked and continue to act like things are magically going to be okay. It's not that I think I necessarily have an amazing grip on things... some things are just that obvious that it should be very easy to understand if you are following what is happening and consciously parsing the events in your head. So many times I have caught myself explaining things and then felt the wrinkles in my brain smoothing over at the thought that it was actually necessary to explain it in the first place. And the thing is, it isn't like I'm getting into arguments in the process. It is genuine ignorance... they legitimately just don't think to contextualize anything. When you present it the right way, they get it.

I still catch a lot of fanciful ideas and "I'm not worrying - no sense." attitudes. I try to challenge that, because this is a national emergency and people should be appropriately worried. People act like it's a bad thing to be worried when things are bad... unable to distinguish between panic and rational concern. If you can't maintain concern about something and translate that into sensible behavior without flipping tables... I honestly don't know how you get through life. There's this weird dichotomy where people seem to think that if you don't want to go full Chicken Little you have to be like Hansel and Gretel right up to the last minute.

A lot of 'hope for the best' but very little 'prepare for the worst'. Hope is powerful and it is a great thing. But in this case, it's not enough to just hope and carry on. People doing this end up ignoring risks and winding up in bad places. I've got multiple co-workers now who have this virus. One went on a cruise with her husband just before the mandates, but after it became obvious things were about to seriously ramp up. She's pretty sick but stable and functional. He is bedridden with pneumonia. Craziest part. She wanted to come into her office herself to get some things!

Another one's husband brought it back from New York, where he works in the professional golf world. This was after athletes caught it, when NYC was the unofficial epicenter. Haven't heard from them, but their whole family is stuck holed-up together, with no access to testing for her or their 3 children. Another went to Mexico for spring break and about a week later started showing symptoms. Our own principal walked into their house to deliver some packets for the online classroom stuff, not thinking anything of it, and completely ignoring where he was asked to leave it outside. He is now forced to isolate completely, with no access to a test unless it hits him. He is 66 years old. Better yet, he traveled out to Orlando, where his real home is, to stay with his wife, who has already been isolating... not knowing if he's bringing it home to his own wife.

Hopefully they will all be okay, but those are not situations anybody wants to wind up in. And somehow they still haven't seemed to learn anything. Those of us still there are lucky. As a private school, we did our spring break a little early, so most came back just as the mandates kicked-in and we cut down to only doing childcare, meaning those exposed/tested positive never came in between when they got back and when they had to quarantine.

And yet those on staff who still go to work are not following the guidelines at all and pretending things are normal, as we walk mostly empty hallways with empty classrooms. Not a one of them has mentioned much of anything about their coworkers, who are among the few cases in the county, because of the choices they made in a time when the right choices were obvious. The only thing on anybody's mind right now is getting paid... it's like somehow they still don't think that could be them, or someone they know who is high-risk.


People like to dismiss Trump for his many very ignorant remarks throughout this, saying it doesn't matter. I see the impact of it here, where a lot of people are republican and actually do trust the things he says.... without hearing all of it, even. So when he says something dumb one day and doubles back to reason the next, people often don't catch it. Though if they do, they still rationalize. You can't even question it at all. Point out any point of concern and all you get are appeals to expertise.

I'm not getting into partisanship here. I generally don't care for our partisan system. He could be democrat and I'd be saying the same thing. The point is that people look to what leaders say in order to make sense of what is happening around them. People look at what he says and construct for themselves a picture of this situation. People hear what they want to hear and then act it out. They stop trying to make sense of what's happening or what might happen, because they've been lulled over, confusing the political aspect oft discussed in the media with the actual reality. "Yeah, that is happening and it's serious, but Trump said..." It's funny how this plays out. People who listen to him are often totally blase. People who don't are in an inconsolable panic. Neither is really a great thing. I don't see a lot of commonsense measures and precautions.

This whole idea of disseminating panic makes sense on the surface level. But when the situation is this serious and things aren't happening that need to happen, it basically amounts to misinformation... in a time when everybody really needs to be on the same page, no less. The lack of sternness and urgency in wrangling this wild-west scenario, and the constant push of this 'light at the end of the tunnel' narrative cooked up with scraps, is NOT helping the average person in America better deal with this at all. It only ensures that if things get really bad, they will be that much worse. If there was ever a time to be straight-up about everything, now would be it. Every time I watch the news, I generally see two things: either unrealistic hysterics, or falsely grounded holding-out. What ends up happening is that people either panic and make things worse, or toss out the baby with bathwater... and make things worse.

The thing is, I myself have thought there was no way we could have prepared. After re-considering, I think that's horseshit. Of course we could! It's ridiculous to think our government forgot about 1918. There are organizations within the federal government dedicated to preparing for every kind of disaster up to and including a nuclear event. Somehow pandemic wasn't in the itinerary? Unlikely. So then, the question becomes, why the nonchalance with everything that's been happening in the world? Where are the action plans now? Why is it taking so long to mobilize? Or are they just not talking about it for some reason. Somewhere out there are a whole bunch of people who have been training their whole careers to make the things that need to happen, happen. But we don't hear much about that.


You want to reassure people, put a fine point on the full situation, and then talk about those things in equally clear terms. Not being mentally prepared for this is just as bad as not going through the right motions... though they seem to go hand in hand. The full reality of this crisis still doesn't register in a lot of people's minds. I almost wish they WOULD panic... be bothered... just a little. One day everyone is going to wake up and things are going to be worse than they are now, and there will be many fingers to point and much previously needless scrambling to do. People have gotten so many opportunities to recognize what's really going on and start doing the right things, but instead many have continued to resist and cling to whatever normalcy they can. I get it, but things aren't normal right now. Things haven't been normal for longer than many people are willing to acknowledge, even now. Everyone out in the USA right now who thinks this way is a huge liability. And judging by the things I see and the many stories people are telling right now, it's still way too common.

I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of how to seek and process information these days. The way it was distributed changed drastically, but attitudes didn't. It seems silly to have to teach people how to make sense of important information, but this might be something we need to start really emphasizing in school... and really just across the board. Because right now I'm looking at a large portion of the population who's ways of dealing with information lead to mass ignorance. And it's hurting us badly in this situation. It's weird to think that Americans in an earlier time might have been quicker to make important judgements for themselves and act, in spite of the much slower speed and lower bitrate of information. But it's something I can't shake.

Maybe it's just that with so much information of varying quality, people feel freer to pick and choose what suits them, whereas in the past you couldn't afford to pontificate on unknowns, and so had to act with more caution and thoughtful diligence. In some ways, we are more civilized AND better informed... and yet less sensible.

"It's human nature." Sure it is... but so are a lot of terrible things that we've learned to better deal with over the centuries. To me, the clearest picture I have of anything right now is how fucking bad we are at handling information in general. We need to be able to change how we think and communicate in step with the growth of technology and society as a whole. If this was a test, we failed badly. I'm still trying to remain hopeful and not panic myself. Just monitoring and also balancing-out mental health as best as I can... it's just disheartening.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 28, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> The point is that people look to what leaders say in order to make sense of what is happening around them.



That is until you figure out that none of them have a clue what they are doing.  If you look to any of them for help in making decisions, you have made a very bad decision yourself.



robot zombie said:


> It seems silly to have to teach people how to make sense of important information, but this might be something we need to start really emphasizing in school



We stopped teaching critical thinking a long time ago and started teaching test taking when standardized testing became a thing.  People now have to learn critical thinking on their own and much like experience, you don't learn it until after you need it.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 28, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> The thing is, I myself have thought there was no way we could have prepared. After re-considering, I think that's horseshit. Of course we could! It's ridiculous to think our government forgot about 1918. *There are organizations within the federal government dedicated to preparing for every kind of disaster up to and including a nuclear event. Somehow pandemic wasn't in the itinerary? *Unlikely. So then, the question becomes, why the nonchalance with everything that's been happening in the world? Where are the action plans now? Why is it taking so long to mobilize? Or are they just not talking about it for some reason. Somewhere out there are a whole bunch of people who have been training their whole careers to make the things that need to happen, happen. But we don't hear much about that.



We did have this already in place, but it was withdrawn it in 2018:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/

@EarthDog, you beat me to it lol


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> We did have this already in place, but it was shut down in 2018:
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2


There. Hope that helps take the sting off of it. 

EDIT: It doesn't matter... the services are gone and/or cut back.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> That is until you figure out that none of them have a clue what they are doing.  If you look to any of them for help in making decisions, you have made a very bad decision yourself.


I dunno... I feel like your average person really does know this. Ask your average person what they think of our political system and then ask them how much they trust in it, or its actors as a whole. The answer will be unilateral. But people like to turn their backs to that awareness when it suits them.



> We stopped teaching critical thinking a long time ago and started teaching test taking when standardized testing became a thing.  People now have to learn critical thinking on their own and much like experience, you don't learn it until after you need it.


Sad but true.

I could also add that critical thinking has become less called for in everyday life. I think an easier life is great and technology is amazing, but I think the arrogance of all humanity shows in our willingness to disregard the value of critical thinking and experiential contemplation as we move towards building lives for ourselves that lessen the need for them _in certain situations._ We relinquish the effort at the first chance.

On some level, it's almost like people seem to feel like we shouldn't need to, or that we can make it so it isn't needed. People get frustrated when they're brought to reckon with critical thinking and observation unexpectedly... it's a surprise to them... a hassle, a pointless effort, _a flaw in the system._ Because why should they have to figure anything out? To me, I've always found learning and just figuring things out in my head and challenging myself intuitively rewarding. Somewhere inside everyone is that same drive, but by some combination of factors, people increasingly come to avoid those things whenever possible. I think our education system is a major factor, and it goes far beyond standardized tests.

I am big believer in technology and the continued proliferation of increasingly 'advanced' lifestyles. The better and easier everyone's lives can be, the freer we are to make things even better, ideally. But our natural lean towards contentedness betrays us in times like this, when it simply is no longer possible and people find themselves totally unequipped In the meantime, our minds have atrophied. In reality, not having the mind challenged frequently makes a person less happy, but it's okay because we can remain distracted. Over time, it becomes the only way a person knows how to operate. It's crazy that it is even possible for us to modulate ourselves in the first place. It is a survival mechanism. Your central nervous system is wired to operate on a higher level when it is needed, even rewarding it with pleasure. No other animal on earth supersedes that quite like we have. We consciously put ourselves in a worse place in terms of happiness and survival. I can't figure it out. We are so insanely adaptable that one day we might just adapt ourselves out of existence... or at least into something we can no longer adequately adapt to. Blessing and a curse.

It's something I wish was given more consideration on so many different levels. We will probably never reach a point of advancement where generating good and avoiding bad is automatic. We have to continue to use our heads, even in the absence of the impetuses present in earlier times, when it was progressively more "think or die" the further and further you go back.

Self-insight is a tricky aspect. We can see it in others, but not ourselves. We talk, but I'm betting both of us are no less susceptible to side-stepping our critical thinking in the same ways. Though I'm sure it helps if you realize that and prioritize it whenever possible.

I like to think that there are concrete reasons for all of it, which still need to be better understood and dealt with, just as we have many other problems with human nature. We still have a lot to learn about ourselves, both as individuals and as a collective. Of all of the things we have learned so much about and harnessed in so many incredible, unthinkable ways, our overall understanding of our own minds is dismal.



Gmr_Chick said:


> We did have this already in place, but Trump promptly decimated it in 2018:
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2


Over time I have seen many attempts to cut budgets to various public health and disaster geared organizations. But from what I saw, he got shut down and congress instead moved to boost it. Granted it isn't something I've followed closely. Just things I vaguely remember catching in the news.

It may very well be true that he is responsible for the poor response, though going back before any of this was even looming. The silence on certain things is deafening... makes one quick to question the availability of finances and resources. It would explain a lot of what he puts out. But right now I'm not sure what to think, as everyone is eager to blame, with many reporting on the political side of the matter looking to gain ground. I keep it all tucked away, for when the dust settles and hopefully the reality behind our nation's odd response is more clear. Right now there is so much infighting I feel like the middle school dean trying to figure out who started a fight between two boys.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 28, 2020)

Forgive me y'all. I'm just anxious and upset is all. Remember my story about my brother-in-law and his work friend? He offered to look after said friend's dog until at least the 8th of April because -- wait for it -- said friend will be "vacationing" in Mexico till then. I seriously wish I was making this up, but I'm not. So now my brain is immediately in "worst case scenario" mode and I'm a bit "on edge"


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Forgive me y'all. I'm just anxious and upset is all. Remember my story about my brother-in-law and his work friend? He offered to look after said friend's dog until at least the 8th of April because -- wait for it -- said friend will be "vacationing" in Mexico till then. I seriously wish I was making this up, but I'm not. So now my brain is immediately in "worst case scenario" mode and I'm a bit "on edge"



Well Mexican President since of last week was still advising people to Hug.


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## R-T-B (Mar 28, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> Well Mexican President since of last week was still advising people to Hug.





In reality, when this virus hits Mexico City, that region is so fucked it's not even funny.  Sorry for the language, but there aren't really better words to describe it.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 28, 2020)

Actually the state has been preparing for awhile. Its his political persona that is contrary. I have relatives there and they been screening commuters from one state to another for symptoms. Teachers have also been sent home like the USA.

I think we'll hear more from Mexico once the Cartels start feeling it.  More turf wars.


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## moproblems99 (Mar 28, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Self-insight is a tricky aspect. We can see it in others, but not ourselves. We talk, but I'm betting both of us are no less susceptible to side-stepping our critical thinking in the same ways. Though I'm sure it helps if you realize that and prioritize it whenever possible.



Oh, I can count many times that I made poor decisions in the moment.  In most of them, I very well knew I was making the bad decision.  It is amazing the ability for humans to recognize but still ignore the obvious sitting in front of them and take the bad path anyway. Like you said, it really is a blessing and a curse as it also allows us to make emotional decisions that are not positive.  I fear there will be a lot of those decisions to be made in the future.  I really don't know where I sit on this.  The virus itself isn't the most deadly one around but the gridlock in the medical system is causes is no joke.  My brain is just really having a difficult time initializing my security posture.

Thanks for your posts, they have been great to read.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Forgive me y'all. I'm just anxious and upset is all. Remember my story about my brother-in-law and his work friend? He offered to look after said friend's dog until at least the 8th of April because -- wait for it -- said friend will be "vacationing" in Mexico till then. I seriously wish I was making this up, but I'm not. So now my brain is immediately in "worst case scenario" mode and I'm a bit "on edge"



Why are you upset about this? this is a great idea!!! 80% he will be detained at the border if not now, then on the way back. 

Travel ban from US to Mexico and vice versa is just a matter of time.

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." -Napoleon Bonaparte


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 28, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> I think we'll hear more from Mexico once the Cartels start feeling it. More turf wars.



I hadn't even thought of turf wars.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 28, 2020)

Boarder crossings were closed to Non essentials.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

The majority of rapid test coronavirus test kits supplied by China to Spain and the Czech Republic are faulty, local news outlets reported.









						China Supplied Faulty Coronavirus Test Kits to Spain, Czech Republic
					

The majority of rapid test coronavirus test kits supplied by China to Spain and the Czech Republic are faulty, local news outlets reported.Up to 80 percent of the 150,000 portable, quick coronavirus test kits China delivered to the Czech Republic earlier this month were faulty, according to...




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 28, 2020)

U.S. Approves Abbott Labs Five-Minute ‘Rapid’ Coronavirus Test
					

Abbott Laboratories won U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for its molecular test for the Coronavirus strain COVID-19, which the company says can deliver “positive results in as little as five minutes and negative results in 13 minutes.”




					www.forbes.com
				




If it is 100% accurate and they can be mass produced in a hurry, might start seeing more accurate data in maps soon.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Forgive me y'all. I'm just anxious and upset is all. Remember my story about my brother-in-law and his work friend? He offered to look after said friend's dog until at least the 8th of April because -- wait for it -- said friend will be "vacationing" in Mexico till then. I seriously wish I was making this up, but I'm not. So now my brain is immediately in "worst case scenario" mode and I'm a bit "on edge"


Heh, completely understandable. I think that's pretty irresponsible. One of my coworkers is suspected to have gotten it from there around 2 weeks ago now! And I thought it was a terrible idea then! That is frustrating as hell.


moproblems99 said:


> Oh, I can count many times that I made poor decisions in the moment.  In most of them, I very well knew I was making the bad decision.  It is amazing the ability for humans to recognize but still ignore the obvious sitting in front of them and take the bad path anyway. Like you said, it really is a blessing and a curse as it also allows us to make emotional decisions that are not positive.  I fear there will be a lot of those decisions to be made in the future.  I really don't know where I sit on this.  The virus itself isn't the most deadly one around but the gridlock in the medical system is causes is no joke.  My brain is just really having a difficult time initializing my security posture.
> 
> Thanks for your posts, they have been great to read.


Thank you for hearing me out. I try to think carefully and just get the thoughts out in a somewhat productive way. I don't have answers, just things I feel are worth thinking about. I really value balance in my thoughts and try not to hide my bias. Probably never fully get there but I generally hope to inspire others to try as well. There are so many pitfalls to thinking and talking about this stuff.

I share the same sentiment as you when it comes to what the worst evil in this whole situation really is. I'm trying really hard to stay level - it's difficult to know what is right. All I know to do is try to play my role and do everything I can manage to not spread it, and I'm not just talking about the virus. My thoughts on everything may change by the day, but the range of things I can do doesn't. On a bare level it is at least simple to separate wants and long-term goals from immediate needs. I focus on the latter, eliminating as many as possible until only those are met. Where there are gaps I simply accept that I have to adjust my perspective, and that I may not be able to do that quickly, let alone consistently because that's not how people work. It's impossible to know how to feel sometimes. It definitely becomes easier when you accept the impact this has on your decisions. Doesn't mean one can rationalize making poor choices, but I think you have to be able to accept it and forgive yourself for that if you are to remain close enough to that part of yourself to exert more control over it.

Not fully knowing the implications here, but seeing what can happen, I try to take every chance to exercise caution. It means giving a lot of things up for the time being and completely rethinking my day to day. I find that in itself stressful in that it's a constant reminder of things being up in the air, as well as that things which would normally help me cope with those situations are absent. I can't not realize that and it compounds into this lower-level 'oh shit' feeling. I don't feel like I'm as in control as I thought before all of this and that rattles a person on a deep level. I can't resolve things like I used to, and it's prodding my ego. That can either motivate you to find that sense of control unrelentingly, or bring you to grips with things you take for granted and lead you to things you can still appreciate.

One way I deal with it all is what I'm doing right now. I try to look at my own thoughts and feelings like I'm analyzing a character in a film... and just hash it out as though I'm simply tabulating someone else's thoughts. Putting it out there forces me to think carefully, even if only to be able to form the words and be understood. Beyond that, I have to be able to distance myself from what I'm looking at a little bit in order to have that capacity. It's not an easy thing to do and often I go to write a post and have to just walk away... not because I don't stand by what I'm writing, but because of what I'm channeling and the effect I see it having on me. I have the benefit of witnessing these things, while not being at the mercy of them, because my focus is on the act of writing with intent. It's like meta-level meditation.

I find it extremely useful. It tells me things about what's going on with me that I wouldn't have noticed. And then when I do manage, it's therapeutic. If I can integrate some of my thoughts, I am able to continue living under new limitations with a real sense that everything about this is not everything about me. Because of how this is affecting the world, it's easy to wind up making it your whole world. My way of resolving that is to push for my next stopping point, because after that all I can do is put it down. As a bonus, it gives me a chance to watch my own thoughts pass. Stop trying to alter them or make sense of things for a little while. I also get to go back and see how my thoughts go at different points, and correlate them on a timeline. It may not change much, but it gives me a way to anticipate my reactions and potentially see flaws I'm prone to.

I have made peace with the idea that at some point things will not be as bad as now, but I won't know when that is, or how much worse things may or may not get. I just know that a lot of people are dying and vital systems are starting to break down. I fear for the economy and really my whole way of life further off in the future. But I also know that to be something I have no power over, just as I cannot control how everything to do with me will be affected if this virus becomes a part of my life directly. I can only deal with it like I'm dealing with things now, which is to make the compromises I can make, try to encourage others to do the same, and try to find different ways to be happy. A temporary new normal. I may think whatever I think, but my conscience likes to remind me of what could happen if I'm not careful. I find that actually keeps me from worrying so much about pretty much everything else that isn't anything I can do to never have to face what it's warning me about, if I can help it. Sometimes welcoming negative emotions leads to better decisions. It's usually avoiding them that causes people to make mistakes that they recognize as mistakes on an intellectual level.

If I catch it, I catch it. But I don't want any guilt on my head. I don't want to have to look back on a terrible outcome that I've been a part of, knowing I legitimately could've done things differently. People make mistakes. The only other thing I prioritize is really trying to keep my emotions in order, just knowing they're always influencing me whether I face them or not. It's not always possible to do in the moment, but when I feel like I'm calm in another moment, I remind myself to reflect, before it inevitably passes and I lose that capacity yet again. Sometimes I don't like what I find, but that's the point. Emotions, positive and negative, can both be used as tools. They can just as easily help a person resolve difficult problems in life. Sometimes things have to run their course, and you have to just know that in your heart. They're always changing, you know? I'm just trying to ride the waves and keep eyes on the scenery back on-shore. I know I'll fuck up. But that just means I'm ready.

I like to think that what I'm trying to describe is part of a progression we actually go through constantly. It's just that certain things force your hand a bit and push it more into your awareness than you're used to. There's no way of knowing how to react. For me, I focus more on how *I* react. You can always look back and see how you react to things. IME simply doing that seems to alter how a person reacts in the future... it works on a subconscious level.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> That is...one of the ugliest creatures I've ever seen!


C'mon, pangolins are kinda cute. Also completely harmless. Yet, they're being hunted into extinction by humans, so their scales can be sold as Chinese "medicine"...


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 28, 2020)

So, woke up at 06.15, read thread. 

LQ'd and deleted political comments.


----------



## Caring1 (Mar 28, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> So, woke up at 06.15, read thread.
> 
> LQ'd and deleted political comments.


Groundhog day tomorrow again.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 28, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> C'mon, pangolins are kinda cute. Also completely harmless. Yet, they're being hunted into extinction by humans, so their scales can be sold as Chinese "medicine"...



And, according to that article, their meat is considered a "delicacy" there...


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

I don't know how anybody could eat one of those. They're super cute! Like a mix between an armadillo and an anteater. Those two things on their own aren't that cute (anteaters are wierd... armadillos are creepy and carry leprousy...) but combine them and they are ADORABLE. I will never understand... they see animals like that and want to eat them. I just wanna hold them while they roll into a little ball and let it float on its back in the sink.

They look like something you'd see in a classic JRPG as some sort of helpful creature. If you help them in a sidequest where you befriend a villiage of them, there's a 7% chance one pops in to battle to do a DEVASTATING roll attack on an enemy when in thier homeland. Mebbe they bounce back and make a cute little SNES creature call before rolling off the stage, making cute little clicky sounds. And then in levels they bounce over to switches that open up paths to unique loot or a shortcut that bypasses a boss or costly gauntlet run. Iconic.

Those things need to be made a mascot. Even the name fits. Pangolin? Are you sure this isn't from a fantasy anime? Maybe they're mythical amphibious serpentine armadillos... It's either that or a musical instrument, so I'm just gonna stick with the former. In my head canon their attacks cause lingering poison damage to my foes and they can't be attacked or killed. Giving them a leek makes them ecstatically happy - the one that you can communicate with always keeps one in its mouth. That's how you know it's the leader. It's also how you earn thier trust. Initially they want to attack you with thier adorable little army in a forest encounter. But then you offer the leek as an olive branch and they come to respect you, even though you can't roll up trees. They can roll across bodies of water to get things for you, because swim mechanics haven't been implemented yet.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 28, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> In reality, when this virus hits Mexico City, that region is so fucked it's not even funny.  Sorry for the language, but there aren't really better words to describe it.


Well we've probably got a dozen or so clusters like Mexico City or even Tokyo, though over a larger area. In terms of density & pop India is 3x that of China but one thing that is mildly encouraging is that with the lesser area we can grab/identify some of these infected people rather quickly. Contact tracing will likely be more effective especially if you're looking at certain neighborhoods, though the obvious downside is that the number of infected could be much higher.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 28, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> I don't know how anybody could eat one of those. They're super cute! Like a mix between an armadillo and an anteater. Those two things on their own aren't that cute (anteaters are wierd... armadillos are creepy and carry leprousy...) but combine them and they are ADORABLE. I will never understand... they see animals like that and want to eat them. I just wanna hold them while they roll into a little ball and let it float on its back in the sink.
> 
> They look like something you'd see in a classic JRPG as some sort of helpful creature. If you help them in a sidequest where you befriend a villiage of them, there's a 7% chance one pops in to battle to do a DEVASTATING roll attack on an enemy when in thier homeland. Mebbe they bounce back and make a cute little SNES creature call before rolling off the stage, making cute little clicky sounds. And then in levels they bounce over to switches that open up paths to unique loot or a shortcut that bypasses a boss or costly gauntlet run. Iconic.
> 
> Those things need to be made a mascot. Even the name fits. Pangolin? Are you sure this isn't from a fantasy anime? Maybe they're mythical amphibious serpentine armadillos... It's either that or a musical instrument, so I'm just gonna stick with the former. In my head canon their attacks cause lingering poison damage to my foes and they can't be attacked or killed. Giving them a leek makes them ecstatically happy - the one that you can communicate with always keeps one in its mouth. That's how you know it's the leader. It's also how you earn thier trust. Initially they want to attack you with thier adorable little army in a forest encounter. But then you offer the leek as an olive branch and they come to respect you, even though you can't roll up trees. They can roll across bodies of water to get things for you, because swim mechanics haven't been implemented yet.



I'm not LQ'ing your post (somehow that would seem mean) but stay on topic. Enchanted Pangolins and battle-lust is def for the lounge.


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## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

Gotcha. Couldn't help it


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## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> C'mon, pangolins are kinda cute. Also completely harmless. Yet, they're being hunted into extinction by humans, so their scales can be sold as Chinese "medicine"...



Those poor, super cute pangolins developed a mega virus that is responsible to the death of 27,373 people and put 23,560 in critical condition.


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## Flanker (Mar 28, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Those poor, super cute pangolins developed a mega virus that is responsible to the death of 27,373 people and put 23,560 in critical condition.


So far, we only know that they carry coronavirus that is closely related to COVID-19, but we are still not sure where the mutation really happened. But yeah, stop killing them, time to end this crackpottery.


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## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Those poor, super cute pangolins developed a mega virus that is responsible to the death of 27,373 people and put 23,560 in critical condition.


That's another way too look at it.

Speaking of yesterday at work towards the end of my shift I started getting a sore throat, a bit of cough, and a burning sensation in the upper part of my chest. Guess what happened today towards the end of shift. The only difference today (Friday) was I left an hour early, started having a mild fever on my way home. Went from just my forehead too my whole face feeling warmer than it was. I did have a bit of a runny nose though.

Changed out of work clothes, washed my face/hair, ate something, and went to bed at 5:27. Woke up at 8:42PM, fever was gone still had a mild burning sensation in my upper chest that has slowly diminished. Still have a tiny bit of a burning feeling in chest that I hope is almost gone. No shortness of breath though earlier or now but afraid to go to sleep again.

Not sure if it _was_ anything but isolating in a bedroom downstairs from everyone else just in case.

That's what I get for being in contact with the general public because I'm considered critical infrastructure where I work. 50/50% chance someone could be a carrier, and I wouldn't know if their showing no symptoms. 

Called off work or I tried to, sent a text to the manager although she's in bed asleep at this time. She babysits two of her grandkids when she can to help out her son because her daughter in law passed away last year while in for surgery. She was 6 months pregnant at the time it happened.


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## Gmr_Chick (Mar 28, 2020)

Do keep us posted, won't you @biffzinker?

My brother in law is considered "essential" because he works in the auto repair industry. Just hope he doesn't bring it home one day. Scares me. 

I have a...bad habit of looking up illness/disease and freaking myself out (my freak out "Holy Grail" is meningitis, for any one even remotely curious, lol), and earlier tonight, I rewatched that movie "Contagion" with Matt Dillon and Laurence Fishburn. Good lawd, it was kinda like what's happening right now -- started with one case, woman didn't know she was infectious and ended up spreading it until it becomes a global pandemic that the CDC and WHO race to develop a vaccine for it while the country (US) goes to hell in a handbasket due to panic. It was very much a case of art imitating life, holy crap.


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## the54thvoid (Mar 28, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> That's another way too look at it.
> 
> Speaking of yesterday at work towards the end of my shift I started getting a sore throat, a bit of cough, and a burning sensation in the upper part of my chest. Guess what happened today towards the end of shift. The only difference today (Friday) was I left an hour early, started having a mild fever on my way home. Went from just my forehead too my whole face feeling warmer than it was. I did have a bit of a runny nose though.
> 
> ...



Yeah, that's the fear. People used to not bother too much about the odd cough or fever. But now, it makes you a little more cautious. It'd be fine if we know the vulnerable were inoculated but that's the rub. You give this to the wrong person, it's way more dangerous.


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## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

Told a family member what was going since I missed her getting home from work since I was still in bed. She wanted me to keep my distance, I don't blame her.


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## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> Speaking of yesterday at work towards the end of my shift I started getting a sore throat, a bit of cough, and a burning sensation in the upper part of my chest. Guess what happened today towards the end of shift. The only difference today (Friday) was I left an hour early, started having a mild fever on my way home. Went from just my forehead too my whole face feeling warmer than it was. I did have a bit of a runny nose though.



That ain't good. These are coronavirus symptoms.


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## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> That ain't good. These are coronavirus symptoms.


That's what I thought. I definitely felt the need to get out of the store as soon as possible.


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## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> That's what I thought. I definitely felt the need to get out of the store as soon as possible.



Don't take Advil / Ibuprofen and make an appointment at the doctor if it doesn’t improve in the next a few days. Don't jump to conclusions too… I diagnosed myself with COVID-19 several times in the past a few weeks  . Even today, woke up with a chest pain, but it ended to be muscular-based.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> (my freak out "Holy Grail" is meningitis, for any one even remotely curious, lol)


I survived meningitis as a newborn, was in intensive care for I don't remember how long. My Mom has a photo book of polaroids of me in the hospital.


----------



## Tomgang (Mar 28, 2020)

A little update from Denmark. We'll the only positive to say is that it looks like the lock down perpose works as infected number climbing slowly so far and has not exploded like in some other countries.

So far we are just over 2000 infected confirmed cases, but dark numbers are of cause a lot higher. 109 people are in critical condition and in respirator out of 350 total in hospital. 52 has died to COVID-19. Youngest died so far is 50 years old with other health problems.

When it comes to me, I just stay at home as much as possible to ride this virus of as I no longer have a job. Stupid virus  

Well at least so far it is not case case cluster cluster boomb scenario we have in Denmark. But it's still to early to say if we have managed to get vurus slowed down. So far it is still spreading, but at a stable pace health care can deal with.


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## Gmr_Chick (Mar 28, 2020)

^ While it's true that biffzinker's symptoms do suggest COVID-19, the runny nose can actually be considered a "good sign" because experts are saying a runny nose isn't usually present in COVID-19 patience. But why risk it. 

On the subject of symptoms, there are a few that aren't getting the exposure they deserve. Granted, researchers only sampled some 240 patients in China, so it definitely needs to be researched further. The researchers found that, prior to the onset of fever, half (about 50.5% -- 107 males and 97 females) of patients experienced digestive issues (loss of appetite, vomitting, diarrhea). The reason why I said further research was needed is because when it comes to GI issues, anything can cause them, not just COVID-19. 

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...ommon#Digestive-symptoms-in-50.5%-of-patients


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## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> The researchers found that, prior to the onset of fever, half (about 50.5% -- 107 males and 97 females) of patients experienced digestive issues (loss of appetite, vomitting, diarrhea).


I did have diarrhea earlier after I woke up from sleeping. I was feeling hungry tried to eat something again but didn't feel like eating much of anything.


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## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> I did have diarrhea earlier after I woke up from sleeping. I was feeling hungry tried to eat something again but didn't feel like eating much of anything.



LOL TMI. Not necessarily related.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 28, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> The scary thing here is, if he comes out of this unscathed, he might call off all the measures put in place, as it really wasn't all that bad...
> 
> 
> You mean because it even attacks politicians? I feel sorry for the virus in this case...



It might mutate on him


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Those poor, super cute pangolins developed a mega virus that is responsible to the death of 27,373 people and put 23,560 in critical condition.


To be fair, they never asked to practically be eaten completely out of the food chain by selfish human poachers. If you want to blame anybody blame the poachers and the people who support the illicit trade of them.

It could be even worse for the animals now, given what happened when civets were linked to SARS. They got slaughtered. Some populations of pangolins are already critically endangered and have the most serious restrictions possible. They are one of 1200 odd species in the world that are considered this close to being gone forever.

It's all crazy to me. According to CBS they slaughtered a whole lot of civets without proof that they carried SARS in the first place. Interestingly enough they are used to produce a delicacy involving feeding them coffee cherries and brewing the beans after the animals excrete them. Really a pretty similar story all around. No real ethical considerations. All vanity.








						Civet Cat Slaughter To Fight SARS
					

Chinese Authorities Order 10,000 Racoon-Like Animals Killed




					www.cbsnews.com
				




They'd probably keep them in decrepit farms like they do the civets if they could figure out how to pull it off, too.

I'm all for cultural preservation and stuff like that, but from what I remember reading, pangolins were originally used to purge demons in traditional Chinese medicine. Now people use it for things like blood clots and breastfeeding. It it really still tradition if people completely change it? Or is that people shifting in step with modern medicine in order to keep it relevant and valuable?  Hmph.

To me, this practice is straight-up harmful to everyone. Consider people stateside turning to essential oils instead of modern medicine for cancer until it reaches stage 4 and they wind up dying. Some of those can be toxic, too. I'm also reminded of the anti-vaxxer mindset, where herd immunity is weakened and people wind up with preventable diseases believing they're doing the right thing for thier health. People simply should not be doing this. It's not only a moral issue or only about a virus, unless we are talking about ethics in medical treatment. Modern healthcare and disease prevention can be severely undermined when enough people do not participate in spite of having access. In a global sense, having as many people as possible on board with modern medicine is too important for us to have any countries with access to it abiding this. Virus be damned, it's still a pretty big, and very black/white public health problem.

I dunno... to me, if you take the tradition out of it, it's just a scam. Alternative medicine has its place, if the treatment itself doesn't pose a risk of harm across the board and the patient is getting actual treatment... something to be said for the mental aspect of dealing with illness. But this particular practice should have stopped a long time ago. Nobody should be using pangolins for blood clots, let alone consume them as a delicacy. It's hard to really argue for cultural tolerance with it. I mean, is it ever okay to wipe an animal out because they taste good and ancient people thought they were medicine? There would almost be some footing if it was used for it's original purpose of treating a nasty case of the demons... but even that, I just cant. Stuff like that just isn't compatible with modern society. There is a line where things go from normal, hokey old-world things to creating ugly things for people in societies. If it was possible for people to do this with little to no impact it would still be weird, but could probably be left alone. People believe all sorts of things, but when your beliefs are causing harm, live and let live gets a lot more... complex... if it's not a harm to the animals and a disease risk, it's still dangerous if people refuse real treatment in favor of it. That they're endangered on top of that is just a spare nail. People shouldn't be entitled to their ignorance when these are the things that come with it.

I have a feeling enforcement on pangolin trade hasn't been as good as it should've been. It seems like any time traditional medicine is entangled with a rare animal, it gets overlooked more often. People don't think of pangolins as being as endangered or prized as pandas or rhinos. Their use in 'medicine' complicates things. Sometimes I think cultures need to change. Sometimes old things die out and people just call it progress, you know? Even religions can change according to what is considered acceptable at the time.

It's like, where is the line? Is it also acceptable for modern european nations to practice medieval-style (not the modern way) bloodletting because at one point that was how it was done in their native culture? Would people be wrong to think that shouldn't ever be done?

All that aside, I'm pretty sure the evidence we have for them being linked to the virus we humans are dealing with hasn't been proven conclusive at all. The DNA was very close enough for there to be some link, but I don't think it was close enough. What they've found seems to be a different virus, unless something has changed since I last read of this outside of rumors and speculation.








						Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus
					

Pangolins are a prime suspect, but a slew of genetic analyses has yet to find conclusive proof.




					www.nature.com
				




It would be some nasty karma if that were the case... humans would be entirely to blame for it. Both people participating and people letting it happen. But even if it's not, I feel like any rational person ought to frown upon the practice. I do feel bad for the pangolins, too. We could choose to do away with the antiquated practices and vanity dining. They have no say. Instead we're wiping them out and hurting ourselves in the process :/



biffzinker said:


> That's another way too look at it.
> 
> Speaking of yesterday at work towards the end of my shift I started getting a sore throat, a bit of cough, and a burning sensation in the upper part of my chest. Guess what happened today towards the end of shift. The only difference today (Friday) was I left an hour early, started having a mild fever on my way home. Went from just my forehead too my whole face feeling warmer than it was. I did have a bit of a runny nose though.
> 
> ...


If it is, you will need your rest. Please take care. All you can do is isolate and monitor. You should be able to get access to testing more easily now. Hold out, brother. Staying up waiting isn't gonna help. I know that's not really advice... just sayin I want you to be well man!

I've had a few little scares myself. Knowing people who have tested positive and still coming to work doesn't help. I worked for too long without eating one day and thought I was getting a fever. It's also pollen season and pollen has always made my lungs feel constricted. One starts connecting dots, especially seeing the numbers climb and knowing how contagious this is. For half a day I thought I might have it. But I've been normal in the days since then.

I worry for my mother for the same reasons. She's over 60 and working at wal-mart :/ I didn't really need another reason to hate them, but the things she describes there infuriate me. But honestly, the way that wal-mart is run, they wouldn't have the leadership to keep up with all of the important things. My mom keeps telling me they're hiring people out of work and I could do that if we close for a while. I told her "HELL no!" The last place I wanna be is working with the public.

So I understand your fear.

Hell, it bothers me that we're still at work here because leadership has our childcare staying open since it's being designated as essential. We're allowed to stay open for the parents still working. Meanwhile we are coming out to work and taking the risk for 4 kids to show up. And 2 of them are staff's kids. So if we all went home, there would be 2 kids! We have more staff than kids just running the ship. They could take them elsewhere for a little while, I'm sure. But then, I already went into the amount of understanding our principal has... walking into the home of a confirmed infected and then heading home to the wife in Orlando, when he could isolate here, without being tested. It is very hard for me to hold back on the man at this point. If one of us gets it because he wouldn't close up for 2 kids and 8 staff, I don't think I can avoid it... just knowing it's for the little scraps of money and to appease the two parents and not out of a genuine concern for the kids. I don't know how he justifies it. Between the state supplement, payment from parents, and total operations cost, it's a gaping money contusion. We don't HAVE to be open. He could have made that call at any point. But he spends his day writing e-mails for the parents. I see all of his bullshit little newsletters talking of prayers and working together... seriously, fuck that guy. He always does this with important situations. Hides away, avoiding making any real proactive moves. He always writes the best e-mails. If I was on the outside looking in I'd be inclined to believe he had it together. His staff would tell a different story. Save for his pets... one of which put him in contact with the virus.

The school serves no role for the remote program at this point. Nobody has to be there for kids to take remote classes. It's entirely just to show we're 'doing our part' and collect pennies for the rainy day jar. Parents have said they're bringing their kids, but they never do. I say screw them. I'm sorry. There are other places they can bring thier kids if they really need to. Hell, someone on staff would probably watch them for the day for the same money they pay daily, and that's pretty good money for that staff member, too!

Money actually is and isn't a huge issue for them, either. We are supported fully by The Lutheran Church–Missouri Synod, who will loan us the money to continue payroll and float the lost income. I was talking to the accountant who deals with them. She's made the appeals before for lesser things and more cash. She's already reached out for a sit-rep and what they've offered is enough. The debt sucks but it'd far from kill us. Chances are will ultimately have to take it anyway. I'll never understand how he thinks or what he thinks he's waiting to have happen. Nobody really does, though.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 28, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Apparently they don't because people under lockdown aren't listening.   Looking at you California, Washington, and New York.  In fact, all the New Yorkers are coming to my area and spreading the shit.  Causing our local amenities to get locked down etc.  Thank You for caring about others.
> 
> What I find the most entertaining is that these are the same people complaining about the handling of everything by our government.



Its the law of big numbers man. No single government is under the illusion, well maybe except in some Asian countries; that a complete lockdown will deny all human contact. Its just not possible.

The whole idea of these lockdowns and partial lockdowns in Western states is primarily to flatten the curve. That means: a _reduction_ in social contact. Not an elimination. The average infection rate is at 3 people per infected. The goal is to reduce that to 1; when reduced to one, the curve is flat and hospitals can handle the new patients while the old ones go out, things stabilize and we can get things under control. Its all about that exponential bit of things that needs to go away. For perspective, your average flu has about 1.2 infection rate.

No matter what sort of lockdown you would have had, closing amenities in your neighbourhood was going to happen anyway. Its just a matter of time and its not anyone's fault. Consider for a moment you could have just as easily carried it already yourself and spread it amongst your relatives too. You don't know, and neither do they. So what are the options?



moproblems99 said:


> Because as usual, the rules don't apply to you (the royal you, not you).  Your home state gets locked down so you come down here and spread all your shit around.  Half of them flew through the airports which are nothing but cesspools on a good day.  The rest of them huffed it down in the cars.  Our governor even said if you are coming in from out of state then you need to quarantine for two weeks to prevent all the knuckle heads from doing what they are doing.  Again, thanks a bunch.  Don't forget to yell at your TV for what a terrible job everyone else is doing.
> 
> But I digress.  Really, it is unavoidable.  There is a very good chance that everyone in the US will be exposed to it anyway.  I just really thought this would bring everybody together much like 9/11 but I guess that is too much ask.  Apparently, we need to stay partisan and self serving.



I reckon it will, it just needs to get worse and above all, more widespread over there. Right now its a 'city problem'. Not a 'nation problem'. Same thing happened in the UK with all those idiots camping up in Scotland.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> I have a...bad habit of looking up illness/disease and freaking myself out (my freak out "Holy Grail" is meningitis, for any one even remotely curious, lol), and earlier tonight, I rewatched that movie "Contagion" with Matt Dillon and Laurence Fishburn. Good lawd, it was kinda like what's happening right now -- started with one case, woman didn't know she was infectious and ended up spreading it until it becomes a global pandemic that the CDC and WHO race to develop a vaccine for it while the country (US) goes to hell in a handbasket due to panic. It was very much a case of art imitating life, holy crap.



Almost everyone self-diagnose via Google these days.  

Unfortunately, the information online isn't accurate. I tend to get injured often working out [don't listen to the doctors! Sport is actually bad for your health].

Last injury was TFCC tear in the wrist; Internet claims it heals after 8-12 weeks, but it's been 5 months, and seems to require a surgery.

Haven't seen Contagion yet, but Netflix keeps popping it up.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its the law of big numbers man. No single government is under the illusion, well maybe except in some Asian countries; that a complete lockdown will deny all human contact. Its just not possible.
> 
> The whole idea of these lockdowns and partial lockdowns in Western states is primarily to flatten the curve. That means: a _reduction_ in social contact. Not an elimination. The average infection rate is at 3 people per infected. The goal is to reduce that to 1; when reduced to one, the curve is flat and hospitals can handle the new patients while the old ones go out, things stabilize and we can get things under control. Its all about that exponential bit of things that needs to go away.


Indeed. To me it still doesn't excuse individual negligence. Nobody wants to catch the virus because somebody around them just had to have some leisure time away from home.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 28, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Indeed. To me it still doesn't excuse individual negligence. Nobody wants to catch the virus because somebody around them just had to have some leisure time away from home.



It doesn't but what are you gonna do, punch them in the face? Not exactly the most productive solution here 

@Gmr_Chick  Maybe exposure therapy works? I heard they're updating Plague.Inc recently... An idea? 









						'Plague Inc’ To Allow Players To Fight Disease Outbreaks Soon, Devs Donate Against Coronavirus
					

“Plague Inc.,” the popular pandemic simulator game that rose to the top of the list of the most downloaded mobile games due to the 2019 novel coronavirus, will soon have a new mode that will let players fight against diseases.




					www.ibtimes.com
				




@robot zombie 'Twerking distance' 



Gmr_Chick said:


> ^ While it's true that biffzinker's symptoms do suggest COVID-19, the runny nose can actually be considered a "good sign" because experts are saying a runny nose isn't usually present in COVID-19 patience. But why risk it.
> 
> On the subject of symptoms, there are a few that aren't getting the exposure they deserve. Granted, researchers only sampled some 240 patients in China, so it definitely needs to be researched further. The researchers found that, prior to the onset of fever, half (about 50.5% -- 107 males and 97 females) of patients experienced digestive issues (loss of appetite, vomitting, diarrhea). The reason why I said further research was needed is because when it comes to GI issues, anything can cause them, not just COVID-19.
> 
> https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...ommon#Digestive-symptoms-in-50.5%-of-patients



Yep well I can confirm I've had digestive symptoms... but then those happen all the time. Mostly after dinner. Definitely TMI territory... but really, this is also Flu season... did you know that even now a large % of people with 'symptoms' and tested is still diagnosed with the common flu?

This is the sort of article that can make anyone think back and say 'yeah, I've probably had it'.... and maybe you probably or possibly did... but what use is that info? You still aren't going to be sure.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> It doesn't but what are you gonna do, punch them in the face? Not exactly the most productive solution here


Naw, I just vent my frustrations online like a normal person. Or do things like feign a violent cough for the lady who decides to stand in twerking distance of me at the checkout while her mind goes anywhere but the solar system.


----------



## Flanker (Mar 28, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Sometimes old things die out and people just call it progress, you know? Even religions can change according to what is considered acceptable at the time.


Definitely, things like traditional "medicine" really has no place in the modern world. I think the younger generations in China tolerate it just so their parents can STFU. We just can't take random herbs as cures just become some book said so hundred (even thousands!) of years ago. If we are taking those ancient formulae, examine them scientifically to see how they intereract with human body, then sure, see Artemisinin. Anything else is basically, like you said, a scam. We can have traditions preserved in museums. Wiping out whole species of animals to preserve a tradition few care about is insane.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 28, 2020)

I found very interesting that Japan still have very low rate of infected people and also not to many casualties despite that they have very elderly population and also they did not apply strict measures like the rest of the world........


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 28, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> I found very interesting that Japan still have very low rate of infected people and also not to many casualties despite that they have very elderly population and also they did not apply strict measures like the rest of the world........











						COVID-19 pandemic in Japan - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				












						Japan coronavirus information and stats
					

Real-time Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases tracker and resources to keep you safe.




					corona.help
				




5 seconds on DDG


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 28, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Almost everyone self-diagnose via Google these days.
> 
> Unfortunately, the information online isn't accurate. I tend to get injured often working out [don't listen to the doctors! Sport is actually bad for your health].
> 
> ...


Some more so than others, I've been doing it for well over a decade & after looking up all the names of deadly/rare diseases it almost feels meh these days at least so far as I'm concerned. Basically I avoid the Doctor 9/10 unless absolutely necessary. It's not like he's gonna do some *revelation* of sorts


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 28, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> COVID-19 pandemic in Japan - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah I know the stats thats why I am saying that is still unusualy low rate of infected/casualties


----------



## dirtyferret (Mar 28, 2020)

So I found out the other day a former co-workers wife has it.  She is a nurse in a local hospital and she is also pregnant.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 28, 2020)

dirtyferret said:


> So I found out the other day a former co-workers wife has it.  She is a nurse in a local hospital and she is also pregnant.


Well here in Serbia/Belgrade few days ago we have infected pregnant women who deliver perfectly healthy baby.....women also do not have any serious complications so far only minor symptoms......


----------



## P4-630 (Mar 28, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> women also do not have any serious complications so far only minor symptoms......











						Girl, 16, with no underlying conditions dies from coronavirus
					

'From the beginning, we were told that the virus doesn't affect young people. We believed it, just like everyone else.'




					metro.co.uk


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 28, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> Well here in Serbia/Belgrade few days ago we have infected pregnant women who deliver perfectly healthy baby.....women also do not have any serious complications so far only minor symptoms......


Think outside your borders so you can have a greater, and more realistic perspective.


----------



## HTC (Mar 28, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> Well here in Serbia/Belgrade few days ago *we have infected pregnant women who deliver perfectly healthy baby*.....women also do not have any serious complications so far only minor symptoms......



@ least 2 INFECTED pregnant women delivered NON-INFECTED babies here in Portugal: may have been 3.

EDIT

Just saw it on the news: it's indeed 3 babies WITHOUT the virus.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> Some more so than others, I've been doing it for well over a decade & after looking up all the names of deadly/rare diseases it almost feels meh these days at least so far as I'm concerned. Basically I avoid the Doctor 9/10 unless absolutely necessary. It's not like he's gonna do some *revelation* of sorts



I prefer to avoid doctors too - but I enjoy exercising.

I used to be a smoker, started in the army, and afterwards became a bum for a few years: junk food, energy drinks, cigarettes, video games and terrorizing the Internet. 

It's hard to stop an addiction, much easier to change it to another.

Exercising is the replacement for all the bad habits, but it comes with a price: high risk of suffering an injury.

Some injuries heal by resting, but some require surgical intervention... like this one:




Doesn't hurt much, but my wrist is clicking a lot, and it gets annoying. Will get it fixed after COVID-19.


----------



## HTC (Mar 28, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 5170 confirmed infected
- 100 fatalities
- 43 recovered - no change, since 2 days ago
- 4938 waiting for test results

Biggest spike thus far in cases, deaths and even those waiting for test results: doesn't bode well 

A few days ago, our President explained the reasoning behind the low testing @ 1st (no doubt advised by our medical experts on the subject): it was to NOT provide a false sense of security to those found to be negative which could then later get infected and spread it because they would think they were cleared due to the test result earlier.

While this has it's logic and is perfectly reasonable, i find a *glaring flaw* in this approach: they looked @ the WRONG area by focusing on the negative instead of on the positive. Had we focused on the positive, however low the number may have been when compared to the total number tested, we could have isolated them much sooner thus QUITE PROBABLY contained better this outbreak.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 28, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> Well here in Serbia/Belgrade few days ago we have infected pregnant women who deliver perfectly healthy baby.....women also do not have any serious complications so far only minor symptoms......



Can't know for sure. Have to wait a couple of years to see if the baby gets pangolin scales or tail. 

That's how some horror movies begin... and a few superhero ones.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 28, 2020)

It finally happened, we have a case inside our county. No word on what city it's in yet.. Travel related and the person did self isolated. Someone I know in a neighboring area has it as well.

This makes me wonder if there is anywhere the virus hasn't spread...

EDIT: Correction, it's right here in our city. Had to happen sooner or later. Kind surprised it took this long.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 28, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Naw, I just vent my frustrations online like a normal person. Or do things* like feign a violent cough for the lady who decides to stand in twerking distance* of me at the checkout while her mind goes anywhere but the solar system.



Be careful. *That can constitute as a terrorist act at this time.*

Ending up in a confined space like a holding cell or jail could turn a joke into a extremely high risk of being infected.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 28, 2020)

That does seem a bit extreme don't you think?


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 28, 2020)

P4-630 said:


> Girl, 16, with no underlying conditions dies from coronavirus
> 
> 
> 'From the beginning, we were told that the virus doesn't affect young people. We believed it, just like everyone else.'
> ...


Srry but I mean on that particular pregnant women that deliver that healthy baby and not on ALL women's in the world....not sure why did you quote only that part because it's clearly get out of the content what I actually meant....



EarthDog said:


> Think outside your borders so you can have a greater, and more realistic perspective.


Ofcourse and I always do I just mention this particular case as it was the latest that I heard....


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 28, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> That does seem a bit extreme don't you think?



Not really. Spitting on someone a criminal offense.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 28, 2020)

Talking about feigning a cough, spitting on someone should be a *jailable offense* IMO regardless of the current situation!


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 28, 2020)

This lady had the right idea 11yrs ago with the Personal Space Protector


----------



## repman244 (Mar 28, 2020)

The woman and the baby behind her are both like: WTF?


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 28, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> It finally happened, we have a case inside our county. No word on what city it's in yet.. Travel related and the person did self isolated. Someone I know in a neighboring area has it as well.
> 
> This makes me wonder if there is anywhere the virus hasn't spread...
> 
> EDIT: Correction, it's right here in our city. Had to happen sooner or later. Kind surprised it took this long.



Given how far this single virus strain has spread, it'd be amazing to see a map of it, from Wuhan to now. All those threads of contact, just one big web of global travel. It'd also be pretty scary, from the perspective of 'what if?' for another outbreak of something sinister.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 28, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Given how far this single virus strain has spread, it'd be amazing to see a map of it, from Wuhan to now. All those threads of contact, just one big web of global travel. It'd also be pretty scary, from the perspective of 'what if?' for another outbreak of something sinister.


I’m sure at some point someone will do a flowing map by video that shows the progression.  I agree that it would be interesting to see.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Given how far this single virus strain has spread, it'd be amazing to see a map of it, from Wuhan to now.


There is this animated map over on Reuters.








						Tracking the spread of the novel coronavirus
					

Reuters maps all places where COVID-19 cases have been confirmed.




					graphics.reuters.com


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 28, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> There is this animated map over on Reuters.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's an interesting one. I'm sure there will be more.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That's an interesting one. I'm sure there will be more.


I remember @FordGT90Concept posting it earlier in this or the other thread.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 28, 2020)

Been continuing to watch the numbers at the following site;





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
				




Then comparing them to the numbers shown at this site;





						FastStats
					

FastStats is an official application from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and puts access to topic-specific statistics at your fingertips.




					www.cdc.gov
				




Those numbers compared to each other are still very interesting. Very interesting indeed.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Those numbers compared to each other are still very interesting. Very interesting indeed.


Hopefully it doesn't progress past influenza/pneumonia.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 28, 2020)

Update for Louisiana. I’m starting to see the beginning of a trend. If it continues to hold, it could be an indicator of the number of ventilators needed.  The number on ventilator continue, at least here, to be about 10% of those who have tested positive.

3,315 cases now, with 25,000 tests performed. 927 are hospitalized, with 336 on ventilator.  Deaths increased in the last 24 hours to 137 from 119.









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## HTC (Mar 28, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Update for Louisiana. I’m starting to see the beginning of a trend. If it continues to hold, it could be an indicator of the number of ventilators needed.  *The number on ventilator continue, at  here, to be about 10% of those who have tested positive.*
> 
> 3,315 cases now, with 25,000 tests performed. 927 are hospitalized, *with 336 on ventilator.*  Deaths increased in the last 24 hours to 137 from 119.
> 
> ...



Now go check New York, then check the whole country and then the whole world ...

Some people fail to realize that the lack of enough quantity of this apparatus in facing this virus is synonym of a MAJOR health crisis.

Now imagine if we reach 10 million infected worldwide: are there enough ventilators in the world for 1 million people? And there are STILL those that think it's a good idea to let people get infected until herd immunity is achieved ...


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

HTC said:


> And there are STILL those that think it's a good idea to let people get infected until herd immunity is achieved ...


That would only work if everyone was exposed to a crippled version of the virus (vaccine?) Otherwise it's too much of a risk to be exposing people to a virus they have no chance of defeating even if it goes against 'only the fittest survive.'


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 28, 2020)

Lots of data points and general facts here:








						Coronavirus: knowns and unknowns
					

Coronavirus: knowns and unknowns A roundup of questions that researchers and doctors-as well as policymakers and economists-are still trying to answer.




					graphics.reuters.com
				




Particularly interesting:


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 28, 2020)

How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?
					

An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the…




					medium.com


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 28, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?
> 
> 
> An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the…
> ...


I wonder how accurate this is. If correct, it would certainly explain what is going on in Italy and Spain...


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 28, 2020)

The thing is...it doesn't reflect the results of triage.  If there's a 50 year old and a 60 year old that need a ventilator and there is only one available, the 50 year old gets it condemning the 60 year old to death.  They might not necessarily be dying because of COVID-19 directly, but the healthcare system's inability to handle all the cases.

Triage (medical term for what I just described) is undeniably raising the elderly's death rates.

Both graphs above seem to just reflect cases in US/UK, not Italy/Spain.  US/UK haven't had many (if any) triage induced deaths yet.  In other words, the 85+ year old demographic is by far the most vulnerable.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 28, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I wonder how accurate this is. If correct, it would certainly explain what is going on in Italy and Spain...


I'm no expert, but the data seems to be collected from sound sources, in as much as possible.
Maybe it's mother earth deciding that she needed to clean out some of the older population, as there are too many of us on this planet..?


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 28, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> I'm not expert, but the data seems to be collected from sound sources, in as much as possible.
> Maybe it's mother earth deciding that she needed to clean out some of the older population, as there are too many of us on this planet..?


We'll never know. All too often the elderly and immuno deficient are at higher risk anyway. Add pulmonary issues on top of it... bleh.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 28, 2020)

USA data is collected via CDC death certificates.  There's a standardized form filled out for every death.

Hospitalization/ICU?  That's more complicated.  Not sure how they're collecting that data.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 28, 2020)

Even the elderly have something to give to the younger generation, and I feel there not getting the chance they deserve even if comes down to deciding who gets to live because of a limit on resources. How would you feel telling your own Mother in here mid 60's welp you had a good run but it's for the best you die because someone else is more valuable to save.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 28, 2020)

Sadly, that's exactly what triage is...








						Triage - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 28, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> Even the elderly have something to give to the younger generation, and I feel there not getting the chance they deserve even if comes down to deciding who gets to live because of a limit on resources. How would you feel telling your own Mother in here mid 60's welp you had a good run but it's for the best you die because someone else is more valuable to save.


Most have already given enough to get a pass on giving more imo. How many of those people are parents who basically dedicated large chunks of their adult lives to enduring the physical, mental, and financial burden of bringing more contributing members of society up in the world? If we younger generations can't take care of the ones who held up the world for us while we were still figuring our shit out, the whole thing is really falling apart.

By the time it comes down to having to weigh the value of human life, there's already been a fundamental failure. That's always been my answer to the classic philosophical "who lives?" situation. We have to build things up so as to minimize having to make the choice in the first place. And where find we can't avoid it, learn to. It's about not getting into that predicament in the first place.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 28, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> The thing is...it doesn't reflect the results of triage.  *If there's a 50 year old and a 60 year old that need a ventilator and there is only one available, the 50 year old gets condemning the 60 year old to death.*  They might not necessarily be dying because of COVID-19 directly, but the healthcare system's inability to handle all the cases.
> 
> Triage (medical term for what I just described) is undeniably raising the elderly's death rates.
> 
> Both graphs above seem to just reflect cases in US/UK, not Italy/Spain.  US/UK haven't had many (if any) triage induced deaths yet.  In other words, the 85+ year old demographic is by far the most vulnerable.



In NYC, due to the crush of COVID-19 patients and the dwindling supply of ventilators, there have been instances where two people share one ventilator, which is usually only done in an absolute emergency. Unfortunately, now is that time.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 29, 2020)

They're experimenting with it.  How it works out will determine if they do it elsewhere.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 29, 2020)

^They shouldn't HAVE to though, is what I'm saying.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 29, 2020)

What bothers me the most is any lose of life no matter the circumstances that could of avoided it is what bothers me the most. Yeah stuff will happen, I get that but is this the outcome those people that have died deserve? Any lose of life still bothers me even if I didn't know who they were.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 29, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> In NYC, due to the crush of COVID-19 patients and the dwindling supply of ventilators, there have been instances where two people share one ventilator, which is usually only done in an absolute emergency. Unfortunately, now is that time.


That has been happening in California as well.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 29, 2020)

The federal government should have better prepared to this. It's been weeks since it hit Asia and Europe.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 29, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> ^They shouldn't HAVE to though, is what I'm saying.


Ventilators are normally only used in cases of severe pneumonia which isn't very common.  A contagious virus causing pneumonia is the reason why lockdowns are happening: the virus is exploiting a weakness in healthcare.



Regeneration said:


> The federal government should have better prepared to this. It's been weeks since it hit Asia and Europe.


The fact FEMA had just short of 10,000 ventilators in reserve was preparedness.  To prepare for COVID-19 would have required insane numbers of ventilators.  No one was going to procure all that because of the odds needing it were so remote.

Even with ramping up production, most of the ventilators bought as a result of COVID-19 won't be needed in a few years.  They'll collect dust until they expire and get disposed of.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> The whole idea of these lockdowns and partial lockdowns in Western states is primarily to flatten the curve. That means: a _reduction_ in social contact. Not an elimination. The average infection rate is at 3 people per infected. The goal is to reduce that to 1; when reduced to one, the curve is flat and hospitals can handle the new patients while the old ones go out, things stabilize and we can get things under control. Its all about that exponential bit of things that needs to go away. For perspective, your average flu has about 1.2 infection rate.
> 
> No matter what sort of lockdown you would have had, closing amenities in your neighbourhood was going to happen anyway. Its just a matter of time and its not anyone's fault. Consider for a moment you could have just as easily carried it already yourself and spread it amongst your relatives too. You don't know, and neither do they. So what are the options?



I understand what they are for.  What they are not for is to get locked down and then decide this is not for you so you pack up shop and go to your beach house 1500 miles away who are not locked down.  All the while bringing the virus with you AND pissing and moaning about other's response when you can't do your basic duty of riding this out at your PRIMARY residence.  I know it isn't going to stop anything but you don't have to be an asshat and spread the shit faster all because you feel the rules don't apply to you.

Note: All uses of 'you' are royal.

Again, I know that statistics dictate people are going to be assholes.  If you were an asshole before the virus you are going to be an asshole during the virus.  These are just the things that piss me off and cause me to vent.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 29, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> The federal government should have better prepared to this. It's been weeks since it hit Asia and Europe.



Hospitals didnt want to spend their budgets stock piling either without re-assurance that State or Feds were going to compensate them.


----------



## HTC (Mar 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Ventilators are normally only used in cases of severe pneumonia which isn't very common.  A contagious virus causing pneumonia is the reason why lockdowns are happening: the virus is exploiting a weakness in healthcare.
> 
> 
> *The fact FEMA had just short of 10,000 ventilators in reserve was preparedness.  To prepare for COVID-19 would have required insane numbers of ventilators.  No one was going to procure all that because of the odds needing it were so remote.*
> ...



And that's why it's *IMPERATIVE* to try and slow it *@ the beginning* rather than be complacent and react @ a later date. Obviously, stop it entirely is virtually impossible but *severely delaying it IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE*.

Unfortunately, most of the world didn't consider China resorting to building TWO MASSIVE HOSPITALS in under TWO WEEKS as a serious enough warning and now we're all paying the price for that


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 29, 2020)

FEMA is doing that across the USA now.

NYC:








						New York City's Javits Center transforming into field hospital
					

Governor Andrew Cuomo said the Javits Center in Manhattan is being transformed into a hospital with 1,000 beds.




					www.cbsnews.com
				











						Military field hospitals heading to New York City and Seattle this week to fight coronavirus
					

The U.S. Navy is helping ease the burden on overwhelmed civilian hospitals by agreeing to take patients who do not have the COVID-19 virus causing havoc around the globe.




					www.washingtontimes.com
				











						Samaritan's Purse emergency field hospital deploys to New York City
					

Samaritan's Purse deployed its emergency field hospital to New York City to help with coronavirus medical treatment Friday.




					www.wxii12.com
				




Detroit:








						Detroit auto show canceled, after FEMA commandeers convention center as field hospital
					

The Detroit auto show has been canceled, after the convention center where it was due to be held was taken over by FEMA to use as a field hospital for coronavirus patients.




					www.nbcnews.com
				




New Orleans:








						New Orleans Convention Center to be emergency field hospital
					

The last time the convention hall was used in an emergency was during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.




					www.wwltv.com
				




San Francisco:








						Santa Clara Convention Center transforms into coronavirus hospital
					

Bay Area counties preparing for a potential surge of patients stricken with COVID-19....




					www.sfchronicle.com
				




Los Angeles:








						Staples Center, L.A. Convention Center, Aqueduct Racetrack And O.C. Fairgrounds Could Be Used As Emergency Hospitals
					

COVID-19 cases are rising, with the percentages so far indicating a large number of people will get seriously ill from the virus. As such, government officials are preparing to handle a patient overflow by using non-traditional venues as hospitals. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said during a...




					www.yahoo.com
				




Florida:








						Orange County Convention Center parking lot will be used as coronavirus testing zone
					

The parking lot of the Orange County Convention Center will be used as a testing zone for coronavirus, according to convention center officials.




					www.clickorlando.com


----------



## HTC (Mar 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> *FEMA is doing that across the USA now.  For sure NYC:*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Unfortunately, this virus has gained a big foothold in most countries, some more than others, and trying to slow it down NOW will be extremely difficult: all you have to do is look @ Italy's specific case to realize this.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 29, 2020)

HTC said:


> Unfortunately, most of the world didn't consider China resorting to building TWO MASSIVE HOSPITALS in under TWO WEEKS as a serious enough warning and now we're all paying the price for that



Part of the problem is no one believes what China says.


----------



## HTC (Mar 29, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Part of the problem is no one believes what China says.



Even if there's some truth to that, there's plenty of evidence that supports they ACTUALLY did it.










Why would Chinese Authorities resort to such measures if it wasn't INDEED SERIOUS?


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 29, 2020)

HTC said:


> Even if there's some truth to that, there's plenty of evidence that supports they ACTUALLY did it.



Sorry, not what I meant, they did build the hospitals.  But, you can't believe any figure or data they put out as they will only put out data that shines them in a positive light.  Not that other countries don't do it as well, they are just better at it.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 29, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> In NYC, due to the crush of COVID-19 patients and the dwindling supply of ventilators, there have been instances where two people share one ventilator, which is usually only done in an absolute emergency. Unfortunately, now is that time.


And according to what I’ve read from some accounts, ventilators are having to be on max settings to keep one person alive. Splitting between two is not gonna work for long. They’re going to have rwo people dead.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 29, 2020)

HTC said:


> Even if there's some truth to that, there's plenty of evidence that supports they ACTUALLY did it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Didnt it fall apart and wasnt usable ?


----------



## HTC (Mar 29, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Sorry, not what I meant, they did build the hospitals.  But, you can't believe any figure or data they put out as they will only put out data that shines them in a positive light.  Not that other countries don't do it as well, they are just better at it.


I know what you mean but the fact is they RESORTED to THAT, thus indicating it was INDEED VERY SERIOUS.

The rest of the world should have take notice that it was very bad and should have prepared accordingly. Ofc it was going to be costly but, failing to act then is costing us magnitude orders HIGHER now.


Xzibit said:


> Didnt it fall apart and wasnt usable ?


????


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 29, 2020)

HTC said:


> ????



*Thailand Medical News: Breaking News! China’s New And Rapidly Build Hospital in Wuhan Falling Apart Due to Winds and Snow, Patients Moved and Building Now Not Usable*


----------



## HTC (Mar 29, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> *Thailand Medical News: Breaking News! China’s New And Rapidly Build Hospital in Wuhan Falling Apart Due to Winds and Snow, Patients Moved and Building Now Not Usable*


Was not aware of this.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 29, 2020)

Damaged by floodings and water leaks, not fallen apart.

Russia and China aren't democratic countries.

Their case numbers are far from being real. Probably they just don't want to appear "vulnerable" to the public eye.

Israel, a country of 8 million with 3,619 cases, and Russia with 144 million people with only 1,264 cases. Come on give me a break.


----------



## Totally (Mar 29, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> As of now, USA has taken the #1 spot.
> 
> View attachment 149445
> 
> On other news, Russia claims to have only 840 cases.



I'm certain that's because China has stopped reporting. That number hasn't budge since the first cases outside of China were reported.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 29, 2020)

Totally said:


> I'm certain that's because China has stopped reporting.


Been thinking the same... it doesn't seem possible that they miraculously stopped having cases. Who in their right mind would believe that? Thier leadership seems to live in an alternate reality where things we did as kids to try to get out of trouble actually work. Of course, we all got away from that after one too many time-outs.

The whole world needs to rethink relations with China. I feel like this is kind of a contentious thing to say, for some reason. But so many things seen from them this whole time are just unreal. They are nobody's buddy. Not even their own people... every time there's news that something good is going on with China, it's always bad.


----------



## Flanker (Mar 29, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> The whole world needs to rethink relations with China. I feel like this is kind of a contentious thing to say, for some reason. But so many things seen from them this whole time are just unreal. They are nobody's buddy. Not even their own people... every time there's news that something good is going on with China, it's always bad.


You can thank our mainstream media for that. Everything about China has the negatives amplified and positives disregarded as propaganda. From my personal experience, I do see BS from their government, about the same levels as other countries I've lived in.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 29, 2020)

Flanker said:


> You can thank our mainstream media for that. Everything about China has the negatives amplified and positives disregarded as propaganda. From my personal experience, I do see BS from their government, about the same levels as other countries I've lived in.


I'm honestly not sure what to think about that. Not doubting your experiences. I don't exactly blame them for the whole pandemic, either. That's on everybody and nobody at the same time. But without even reading into things a lot of things coming out from them seem pretty questionable. And it's not like there is an alternative explanation to be found that actually makes sense. Instead they seem to like keeping things happening internal as often as possible. There's a consistent lack of transparency that does not inspire trust. When you're a global player and you don't talk about things happening within your borders when it matters, people are left wondering the truth.

And yes, all countries play these games and carry out lies of omission, but China seems to have its own distinctive brand of it. Not nearly the same as the iron curtain, but definitely reminiscent of it. Vibe checks out. People are, I think pretty rationally, going to question what they DO see, knowing how much they aren't being shown. The suspicion isn't exactly for no reason. Doesn't make it all 100% true at all and in fact you can almost assume it isn't.

When I say the world needs to rethink their relationship with China, I'm not referring to shutting them out. Not only is it not possible, but not favorable to anyone. Just creates friction and difficulties that everyone would feel the impact of in a big way. It's just that the way thier own media and government handles information seems to create a whole lot of problems the moment other countries are involved. It's like they don't play by quite the same rules. I don't think other major nations would get away with it. They lie just as much, but the spirit of it is different. The divide is definitely there. China doesn't seem nearly as interested as being a team player with others as others are with them. Less so than in the past, maybe. But other times it seems like nothing has changed. I'm never surprised at the negative attention at all.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 29, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Damaged by floodings and water leaks, not fallen apart.
> 
> Russia and China aren't democratic countries.
> 
> ...



To be fair, there's a GREAT bit of Russia that isn't densely populated. I mean, the country is HUGE, but it's not crammed like China is from a population standpoint.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 29, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> To be fair, there's a GREAT bit of Russia that isn't densely populated. I mean, the country is HUGE, but it's not crammed like China is from a population standpoint.



Yeah but not in the Moscow area. There are 12m just there.

F me, I have to go the pharmacy to get some antihistamine, and I don't know which mask to wear.


----------



## Melvis (Mar 29, 2020)

I feel really bad for people in the America, the death rate is going to sky rocket in the coming weeks that will most likely put Italy and spain to shame. 

I hope we can find a cure for this Human Malware asap or so many people are going to die. Glogal deaths will double by this time next week Id say.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 29, 2020)

Italy is like Texas + California. Spain is like New York + Florida + Louisiana.  Obviously I left out the other 45 states.  USA is really big with a lot of people so the number of infections will be equally large.

USA has the most critical care capacity per capita in the world.  USA should have fewer deaths per infection because of that.

I'm less concerned about COVID-19 and more concerned about the economic state of the world in the aftermath.  COVID-19 is short term; economic recession/depression is long term.




Regeneration said:


> F me, I have to go the pharmacy to get some antihistamine, and I don't know which mask to wear.


Fitted N-95 is the only type that can filter viruses.

If your pharmacy has a drive thru, use that.  My pharmacy literally closed their store and are doing drive thru only (they have a bank-like set up).


----------



## erocker (Mar 29, 2020)

My pharmacy delivers. 

Also, I'm dumbfounded that MSM isn't questioning China's "no new cases" lies.


----------



## Readlight (Mar 29, 2020)

Newer thought it will come so far.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 29, 2020)

New rules at my workplace:

No fever for 3 days
You can hold your breath for 10 seconds -along with no coughing.
Then you can return to work.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 29, 2020)

Readlight said:


> Newer thought it will come so far.


Buckle up, we're still on this ride


----------



## phanbuey (Mar 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Italy is like Texas + California. Spain is like New York + Florida + Louisiana.  Obviously I left out the other 45 states.  USA is really big with a lot of people so the number of infections will be equally large.
> 
> USA has the most critical care capacity per capita in the world.  USA should have fewer deaths per infection because of that.
> 
> ...



I think the economic downturn is so acute, and the underlying cause is not a fundamental flaw/loss of trust in the system, that the recovery should be great, given there is a remedy.

If there is no remedy for another 6-12 months and the businesses that are suffering (sports, restaurants, hotels, airlines, cruiseships, etc)... have no path to recovery then yeah.  We are super F&Yed.

Basically if we don't have this sorted by July (along some sane recovery plan), the fan will be thoroughly revolving in unpleasant matter.


----------



## 1freedude (Mar 29, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> New rules at my workplace:
> 
> No fever for 3 days
> You can hold your breath for 10 seconds -along with no coughing.
> Then you can return to work.


Are you out now?  Can you hold breath for ten seconds?  Fever?

My group has highest cases, fuck me


Age groupCasesEver hospitalized‡Deaths*0 to 19100020 to 29393030 to 39605040 to 499521050 to 599116060 to 699233370 to 794923580 and over42165Not available1--*Total**479**117**13*


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 29, 2020)

1freedude said:


> Are you out now? Can you hold breath for ten seconds? Fever?


I'm off from work, I was suppose to go Saturday but I called off because something was up Friday evening when i was still at work. I was exposed to something.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 29, 2020)

I'm going to start issuing thread bans if you feel it's necessary to delve into which country lies the most. This thread is for discussion on available statistics and the spread (and related impacts). I've LQ'd posts criticising US and China govt. Equally.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Fitted N-95 is the only type that can filter viruses.



Yes, I already got my COVID-19 Starter Kit.




I also have this:



But don't want to freak up people.


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 29, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I'm going to start issuing thread bans if you feel it's necessary to delve into which country lies the most. This thread is for discussion on available statistics and the spread (and related impacts). I've LQ'd posts criticising US and China govt. Equally.


Honest truth, here. I don't envy your job at all with this one. I mean that respectfully. I get it, even if I am as bad as the rest sometimes.

If there's anything I've learned from pretty much every conversation revolving around COVID-19, everywhere, it's that the politics are inseparable from the topic. It's such a big issue... involving every major government, no less. How does one discuss the impact and the implications, or think about the data and reports without getting into those things? One thing is pretty much guaranteed to lead to another with that. It is a major component to this big thing that is affecting everyone. It's on everybody's minds. Trying to keep a discussion like this constrained to just a few aspects seems like an insurmountable task. I'm betting it either has to be ONLY people posting data and not discussing it at all or nothing. Certain things are just bound to come up. I have no idea which way is right with that. No options that come to mind seem ideal. I think it should be avoided when possible, but I'm also not sure it can be. I AM sure that I can't, for better or worse... I don't really know.

It's too bad that people can't avoid continually going there. I am guilty as charged, too. I'm thinking about just cashing-out at this point. Not in protest, but because I actually can't not get sucked-in at some point and I don't want to cause problems or have things turn sour. I don't trust myself that well  It really is not easy for me to not start piecing all sorts of different things together when it comes to something this big, and I'm thinking I'm not alone there. I apologize for my role in making things harder and probably encouraging the wrong conversations.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 29, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Honest truth, here. I don't envy your job at all with this one. I mean that respectfully. I get it, even if I am as bad as the rest sometimes.
> 
> If there's anything I've learned from pretty much every conversation revolving around COVID-19, everywhere, it's that the politics are inseparable from the topic. It's such a big issue... involving every major government, no less. How does one discuss the impact and the implications, or think about the data and reports without getting into those things? One thing is pretty much guaranteed to lead to another with that. It is a major component to this big thing that is affecting everyone. It's on everybody's minds. Trying to keep a discussion like this constrained to just a few aspects seems like an insurmountable task. I'm betting it either has to be ONLY people posting data and not discussing it at all or nothing. Certain things are just bound to come up. I have no idea which way is right with that. No options that come to mind seem ideal. I think it should be avoided when possible, but I'm also not sure it can be. I AM sure that I can't, for better or worse... I don't really know.
> 
> It's too bad that people can't avoid continually going there. I am guilty as charged, too. I'm thinking about just cashing-out at this point. Not in protest, but because I actually can't not get sucked-in at some point and I don't want to cause problems or have things turn sour. I don't trust myself that well  It really is not easy for me to not start piecing all sorts of different things together when it comes to something this big, and I'm thinking I'm not alone there. I apologize for my role in making things harder and probably encouraging the wrong conversations.



It's a challenge for any individual to remove personal bias, or geo-political bias from discussion. But, it's possible. We discuss how many ventilators we have; we don't need to point a finger at govt. Frankly, as has been mentioned, the number required now was never imagined. So, that's not govt. fault. We discuss how it spreads, where it spreads to, how it's affecting you. None of that requires finger pointing.

We know it came from China. We know the animal trade is responsible. We know these things. But the thread is about the spread, and the numbers involved; these can be discussed, without a neutered conversation. It's like swearing. We moderate for others.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 29, 2020)

Since the debate also mentioned Russia but it all went political, I'll just provide numbers:
1534 of confirmed cases, more than 1000 of those are from Moscow alone - the numbers are starting to go up (270 new cases in a day). And they are testing, total tests performed is around 200 000.

The remoteness of other regions helps and people generally don't travel that much, also Russia shut down it's borders with China from January which probably did help?
Hopefully the actions didn't come late for Moscow, another thing that can help is that the state is not afraid to use more drastic measures (like China) to contain the spreading.


----------



## HTC (Mar 29, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 5962 confirmed infected
- 119 fatalities
- 43 recovered - no change, since 3 days ago ???
- 5508 waiting for test results

Smaller increases than yesterday but a very large number of those waiting for results can change that very quickly.

We had a 14 year old boy die from this virus his morning: just a reminder that it ain't just old people that "get it".

Several retirement homes have been hit hard by this virus: between residents and employees, a significant number of people infected were discovered. In a single retirement home, 47 of 62 residents and 18 of 30 employees were infected


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 29, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Honest truth, here. I don't envy your job at all with this one. I mean that respectfully. I get it, even if I am as bad as the rest sometimes.
> 
> If there's anything I've learned from pretty much every conversation revolving around COVID-19, everywhere, it's that the politics are inseparable from the topic. It's such a big issue... involving every major government, no less. How does one discuss the impact and the implications, or think about the data and reports without getting into those things? One thing is pretty much guaranteed to lead to another with that. It is a major component to this big thing that is affecting everyone. It's on everybody's minds. Trying to keep a discussion like this constrained to just a few aspects seems like an insurmountable task. I'm betting it either has to be ONLY people posting data and not discussing it at all or nothing. Certain things are just bound to come up. I have no idea which way is right with that. No options that come to mind seem ideal. I think it should be avoided when possible, but I'm also not sure it can be. I AM sure that I can't, for better or worse... I don't really know.
> 
> It's too bad that people can't avoid continually going there. I am guilty as charged, too. I'm thinking about just cashing-out at this point. Not in protest, but because I actually can't not get sucked-in at some point and I don't want to cause problems or have things turn sour. I don't trust myself that well  It really is not easy for me to not start piecing all sorts of different things together when it comes to something this big, and I'm thinking I'm not alone there. I apologize for my role in making things harder and probably encouraging the wrong conversations.



First of all I have to applaud @the54thvoid for this moderation in this topic, his lenience and at the same time keeping things on track. I've crossed the line too a couple of times, and tread it more often. But like you say, that's part of this game. I think the most interesting part of this virus and the political aspect of it, is how it actually *challenges *the trend of fake news and government lies constantly. What we're seeing is that struggle. We're seeing facts win the day, every single time, forcing politics to catch up to reality. It underlines people aren't blind or stupid at all, and they will speak out against governments that aren't protecting them properly. Brazil is a great example right now, I read today that the districts are scrambling to provide aid and locally, lockdowns are initiated and the populace is ready to comply. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is spouting nonsense about getting the economy going asap and in complete denial.  All it takes... is time.

Another nice fact I picked up... In Mexico and its slums, _drug gangs_ have taken to enforcing lockdowns locally where the government fails to do so (!!)



Zyll Goliath said:


> Yeah I know the stats thats why I am saying that is still unusualy low rate of infected/casualties



Japan got wind of this quite early and took measures, that's likely it. They also are an island, so they can control traffic far more easily. It is also a highly organized society.


----------



## HTC (Mar 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> *First of all I have to applaud @the54thvoid for this moderation in this topic, his lenience and at the same time keeping things on track.* I've crossed the line too a couple of times, and tread it more often. But like you say, that's part of this game. I think the most interesting part of this virus and the political aspect of it, is how it actually *challenges *the trend of fake news and government lies constantly. What we're seeing is that struggle. We're seeing facts win the day, every single time, forcing politics to catch up to reality. It underlines people aren't blind or stupid at all, and they will speak out against governments that aren't protecting them properly. Brazil is a great example right now, I read today that the districts are scrambling to provide aid and locally, lockdowns are initiated and the populace is ready to comply. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is spouting nonsense about getting the economy going asap and in complete denial.  All it takes... is time.
> 
> *Another nice fact I picked up... In Mexico and its slums, drug gangs have taken to enforcing lockdowns locally where the government fails to do so (!!)*
> 
> ...


Agreed.

Really????


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 29, 2020)

HTC said:


> Agreed.
> 
> Really????



Correction, that was Brazil too









						Brazil gangs impose strict curfews to slow coronavirus spread
					

Drug traffickers in Cidade de Deus and other Rio favelas order residents to stay home as fears grow over impact of virus on poorest Brazilians




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 29, 2020)

A lot of creative solutions are being developed on how to handle the respirator shortage. This one made me laugh though, as it sounds silly, but apparently works.


			Hospitals turn to snorkel masks to ease respirator overload


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Japan got wind of this quite early and took measures, that's likely it. They also are an island, so they can control traffic far more easily. It is also a highly organized society.


All good points....still considering their population age and lack of space in the big cities I have to wonder is it also something else involved.......


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 29, 2020)

Do we know how many tests they've done? For instance New York is saying they've conducted more tests per 1000 than any other place in the world. It simply could be a function of not enough testing, I'll also add though that much like SK they have an excellent healthcare system or arguably even better.


----------



## freeagent (Mar 29, 2020)

I've been watching CNN, what a complete fucking shit show. If we make it out of this, you guys need to fire everyone in power and start fresh.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 29, 2020)

Zyll Goliath said:


> All good points....still considering their population age and lack of space in the big cities I have to wonder is it also something else involved.......



That is what you allude to now for the second time without mentioning what it is you're wondering about exactly.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Mar 29, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> Do we know how many tests they've done? For instance New York is saying they've conducted more tests per 1000 than any other place in the world. It simply could be a function of not enough testing, I'll also add though that much like SK they have an excellent healthcare system or arguably even better.


Well yeah sure the thing is that they probably have many more infected but the point is that they do not have overcrowded hospitals with those critical patients like Italy,Spain and now USA also....



Vayra86 said:


> That is what you allude to now for the second time without mentioning what it is you're wondering about exactly.


I don't know if I could take a wild guess maybe  their immune system is overall better then people on the west?They live healthier life they are not obese and so on....same things goes for Koreans and probably Chinese....


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 29, 2020)

freeagent said:


> I've been watching CNN, what a complete fucking shit show. If we make it out of this, you guys need to fire everyone in power and start fresh.


You should watch foxnews too. See the lulz from the other side. Once you see both lulz, you can find the truth in between. It lay somewhere between zomg we're doing a great job to zomg wtf?


----------



## freeagent (Mar 29, 2020)

I will check it out for sure, normally we don't get that channel, but we do now..


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> It underlines people aren't blind or stupid at all,



I think you are stretching the bounds of reality here.  Unfortunately, in a situation like this the smart can't cover for the stupid so the acts of the stupid are magnified.  In a sense, you are at the mercy of Joe and Nancy next door.


----------



## dirtyferret (Mar 29, 2020)

So yesterday we decided to take a drive into the city as everyone had been inside the house for a week.  I was in times square in 45 minutes (we just drove around never got out of the car) when on a lazy Sunday morning it should take me almost twice as long.  I've never seen NYC as empty of life including the days after 9-11.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 29, 2020)

Death is a great equalizer & unarguably the greatest unifier. Among every living being there's probably no emotion quite like "Fear" though it's too bad it always takes us a (major) tragedy or two to mend our ways. In some ways I doubt this will change much of the trajectory we've been on over the past century or so, the excesses built up by human society in this day is & age is too much even for nature. Perhaps this is one of its ways of fighting back? The day nature is unable to do that we'll have well & truly destroyed the earth beyond repair but that's likely a millennia away!


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 29, 2020)

This weeks sensationalized news piece here to stir stuff up was military deploying for patrols. Even had local news helicopters doing live follow of the transport train.







What it really was, Naval base transporting armored vehicles between bases for repairs.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 29, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> This weeks sensationalized news piece here to stir stuff up was military deploying for patrols. Even had local news helicopters doing live follow of the transport train.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That kind of comment belongs in the other thread.


			https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/
		

Please copy it there and delete it here. Thank you.



erocker said:


> The censorship in this thread is getting ridiculous. Perhaps TPU needs to put a different moderator on it.


Or perhaps users need to use better judgment making comments that stay on or near topic...


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 29, 2020)

phanbuey said:


> I think the economic downturn is so acute, and the underlying cause is not a fundamental flaw/loss of trust in the system, that the recovery should be great, given there is a remedy.
> 
> If there is no remedy for another 6-12 months and the businesses that are suffering (sports, restaurants, hotels, airlines, cruiseships, etc)... have no path to recovery then yeah.  We are super F&Yed.
> 
> Basically if we don't have this sorted by July (along some sane recovery plan), the fan will be thoroughly revolving in unpleasant matter.


The only option until then is quarantine.  Vaccines are late 2021 at the earliest.


This interactive graphic shows what states acted when (up to March 23).  New York was way late to react which contributed to NYC being the first epicenter:








						State by state, COVID-19 grinds U.S. to a halt
					

The patchwork of statewide social-distancing measures that disrupted businesses, schools and daily life




					graphics.reuters.com
				




This is also using March 23 data:








						A deluge of death in northern Italy
					

On average, every 3.5 minutes, someone infected with coronavirus is dying in the Italian region of Lombardy. This is how the region became the single deadliest coronavirus hotspot on the planet.




					graphics.reuters.com
				



March 21st, L’Eco di Bergamo newspaper had *12 pages* of obituaries.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 29, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> I think you are stretching the bounds of reality here.  Unfortunately, in a situation like this the smart can't cover for the stupid so the acts of the stupid are magnified.  In a sense, you are at the mercy of Joe and Nancy next door.



Peer-  and social pressure are powerful instruments though. Joe and Nancy might need YOU next time... What you see now, or what i see, at least, over here, is that our weaknesses make us a bit more humble and people definitely want to do their part. Its also a struggle because there is no social etiquette for this situation.

An example, I was out to the supermarket today. In the Netherlands we have a limited lockdown, meaning; shops that are open have taken measures. I get a shopping cart handed to me when I go in, and can't go in without one; the cart is cleaned when I bring it back; no more than 10 visitors per 100sq/m. Never had more relaxed shopping in my life  But anyway... when you meet people and have to cross them (and keep your 1,5m distance) you exchange looks and you can just feel the discomfort. Everyone is struggling. Do I move aside? Do I wait until the other person is done over there? Do I pass? It'd be hilarious if it wasn't so real...



erocker said:


> The censorship in this thread is getting ridiculous. Perhaps TPU needs to put a different moderator on it. Getting a post deleted about China lying about its numbers is directly related to the topic.



Strongly disagree. China's numbers are just the numbers they give, much like the numbers every other country gives. The reality is, none of them are real, in the sense of giving us the full picture.



Zyll Goliath said:


> All good points....still considering their population age and lack of space in the big cities I have to wonder is it also something else involved.......



Tough one to crack, but in a general sense, unless the infection rate would be vastly below 3 as it is elsewhere, there is no real reason to believe that a better immune system makes a difference towards the total *infected *count; but early and effective lockdown measures do. And with a low infected count also comes a low death count because if you can get proper help and ICU is available, the risk is quite low.

We wondered in this topic why Germany was so low on the count as well... I read today they have a whoppin' 28000 ICU beds. Ready. All the time. 25000 of them have the required respiratory gear too. They also are a society that listens to the rules of government very strictly, and did enforce a lockdown. Perhaps not too timely, but effective enough to keep things contained. In the Netherlands, we are now at ICU capacity of 1000... trying to scale up to 1600 - 2000... go figure. And we're full, so some patients have already been moved to Germany, too.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> We wondered in this topic why Germany was so low on the count as well... I read today they have a whoppin' 28000 ICU beds. Ready. All the time. 25000 of them have the required respiratory gear too. They also are a society that listens to the rules of government very strictly, and did enforce a lockdown. Perhaps not too timely, but effective enough to keep things contained. In the Netherlands, we are now at ICU capacity of 1000... trying to scale up to 1600 - 2000... go figure. And we're full, so some patients have already been moved to Germany, too.



I cannot find the exact number or a link to the article I saw a couple of days ago, but they compared Germany to Italy (the difference in death rate). The standout was the average age of the infected.
In Germany it was around 47 and in Italy it was something around 65.
But yes they have huge capacity and are even taking in patients from Italy (they took around 45 patients from Italy this week) which is very nice to see.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 29, 2020)

erocker said:


> The censorship in this thread is getting ridiculous. Perhaps TPU needs to put a different moderator on it. Getting a post deleted about China lying about its numbers is directly related to the topic.



You can complain to the super-mods if you don't like what I'm trying to do. I'm on probation, if I'm doing a bad job it's only fair that I'm judged and removed, if that was found to be the case. However, LQ'ing posts isn't censorship. LQ posts are still visible, what they allow is for other members to read the pertinent info. There are certain forum members that wish to continually harp on about China. The posts have been made, that's why I'm LQ'ing (or deleting) subsequent ones - they add nothing new to the conversation. There's a Covid-19 thread in the lounge, where more leniency is given to trash talk. I'm not the mod there, so feel free to walk on over.

Edit: I wanted this to be a public message so that people can understand, clearly, that LQ isn't censorship.
Edit 2: Yes, I deleted some posts - but really - they had nothing to offer.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Peer- and social pressure are powerful instruments though. Joe and Nancy might need YOU next time... What you see now, or what i see, at least, over here, is that our weaknesses make us a bit more humble and people definitely want to do their part. Its also a struggle because there is no social etiquette for this situation.
> 
> An example, I was out to the supermarket today. In the Netherlands we have a limited lockdown, meaning; shops that are open have taken measures. I get a shopping cart handed to me when I go in, and can't go in without one; the cart is cleaned when I bring it back; no more than 10 visitors per 100sq/m. Never had more relaxed shopping in my life  But anyway... when you meet people and have to cross them (and keep your 1,5m distance) you exchange looks and you can just feel the discomfort. Everyone is struggling. Do I move aside? Do I wait until the other person is done over there? Do I pass? It'd be hilarious if it wasn't so real...



Yes, peer pressure can do wonders but we have a very divided populace here.  To me, it seems more divided than just about any time in history.  You have a somewhat appearance of national unity.  As divided as we are, it does not bode well to slow this.  I am not usually gloom and doom but I feel this division will greatly exacerbate this problem.  

When some news anchors wish for a recession to remove the president and that gets broadcast to half the population, how do you reconcile that to come together?  

When half of the population lives and breaths removal of the president (even if he is an asshat) while the other half bows like a diety, how do expect them to come together (6ft apart anyway)?

Sadly, National unity is what must happen to truly slow this.  And we are too bitterly divided.

To the mods: I did my best to not be too political but I feel calling out our political divide and putting it to rest for a few months is important to us.  I understand if it gets LQ'd or removed.  No hard feelings.


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 29, 2020)

Well, there's a common sense way to try and prevent the spread, and there's the Belarus way:









						Belarus league plays on amid coronavirus
					

Football fans around the world are turning to Belarus to get their fix during lockdown as the game carries on in the former Soviet republic.




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




No isolation strategy in place at all. Only 94 confirmed cases - no deaths. It's one to watch...


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 29, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, there's a common sense way to try and prevent the spread, and there's the Belarus way:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My take on that is simple; They're accepting it as a virus that will run it's course through the populous, human immunoresponse will work the problem and we'll have something else our bodies are tuned to deal with. They are doing what everyone should be doing, getting on with life and NOT panicking.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 29, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> My take on that is simple; They're accepting it as a virus that will run it's course through the populous, human immunoresponse will work the problem and we'll have something else our bodies are tuned to deal with. They are doing what everyone should be doing, getting on with life and NOT panicking.



There is a clear difference between doing nothing and panicking.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 29, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, there's a common sense way to try and prevent the spread, and there's the Belarus way:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well, that's a recipe for disaster. Don't get me wrong I wouldn't rather live the rest of 2020 in fear, and in place sheltered from what could of been considered living life with the inherited risks.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 29, 2020)

Sorry I’m a little late with the daily Louisiana update. I was enjoying my shelter in place life watching The Defenders. I’ve managed over the last week and a half to plow through the rest of the Netflix Marvel series. Now I found out I should have watched them in a certain order, switching between series. Oh well.

The number of positive cases took a slight slowdown here. Louisiana added only 225 cases to 3,540.  Deaths ticked upward a little from 137 to 151.  That’s a bit of good news too, I hope.  The number hospitalized increased by 200 from 927 to 1,127.  Of those, 380 are on ventilator.  Nearly 28,000 tests have been conducted.









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 29, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> Well, that's a recipe for disaster. Don't get me wrong I wouldn't rather live the rest of 2020 in fear, and in place sheltered from what could of been considered living life with the inherited risks.



While easy to say, fear is not necessary at this point in time.  It is a little different to practice though.  I won't be remotely let fear creep in until/if the dollar/economy crashes.  Every week I add a can or two to the long term supply in hopes it is not needed.  If it isn't, my hurricane kit is ready to go.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 30, 2020)

The holes are vanishing (except places where people don't live like the Utah desert):

Click for details.  Here's the post/image from Tuesday for comparison:


FordGT90Concept said:


>


New York City shrunk because everywhere else grew relatively.


----------



## remixedcat (Mar 30, 2020)

I just use this site for my state:





						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus designated SARS-CoV-2.




					dhhr.wv.gov
				



I like how they embed the real Johns hopkins map so I dont have to have a seperate tab 

and since I got family in ohio I use this one:





						Overview
					






					coronavirus.ohio.gov
				






FordGT90Concept said:


> The holes are vanishing (except places where people don't live like the Utah desert):
> View attachment 149753
> Click for details.  Here's the post/image from Tuesday for comparison:
> 
> New York City shrunk because everywhere else grew relatively.


Nice map links. Good for an overall view


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 30, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> The holes are vanishing (except places where people don't live like the Utah desert)


What are you talking about? Southern Utah has a ton of people. For example, St. George is a well loved retirement community.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 30, 2020)




----------



## Xzibit (Mar 30, 2020)

It was reported earlier that NY has a stockpile of Ventilators and received a shipment from the Feds but isn't distributing them. NY Gov. confirmed it when confronted.



> Cuomo said. "*The hospitals don't need them yet.* The hospitals aren't at their apex. The hospitals have enough ventilators today, but their numbers are going up."



Then you see videos of NY hospital doctors pleading for them. Some NY hospitals having to get them out of State. The 2 patients on 1 stories out of NY.

NY is also try'n distribute the patient load on hospital by moving patients to less filled hospitals. I would think thats a double edge sword. You help one area but insert an infected person to another or more of them to a less infected area bringing in a higher risk to that locality plus strain their resources when the locals to that hospital get hit.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 30, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, there's a
> 
> 
> Xzibit said:
> ...


----------



## Flanker (Mar 30, 2020)

Looks like all Nvidia staff are working from home


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 30, 2020)

Flanker said:


> Looks like all Nvidia staff are working from home



Wasn't GTC cancelled entirely on the 16th? Letter talks about it as it took place and is dated 24th. Jensen didn't sign it and no company letterhead.

I don't doubt that non-essential people are working from home just that the letter looks off.


----------



## Flanker (Mar 30, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> Wasn't GTC cancelled entirely on the 16th? Letter talks about it as it took place and is dated 24th. Jensen didn't sign it and no company letterhead.
> 
> I don't doubt that non-essential people are working from home just that the letter looks off.


I just had a look at their website. It looks like they are having GTC digital sessions almost daily








						GTC Oct 2020: Session Catalog
					

Watch live or on-demand conference sessions.



					www.nvidia.com


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 30, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> - 5962 confirmed infected
> - 119 fatalities
> ...



I read a story today out of Chicago. An infant just died from it, though health officials haven't yet said if the infant had underlying conditions or not. Death is heartbreaking, but the death of a baby is even more so. 



the54thvoid said:


> Well, there's a common sense way to try and prevent the spread, and there's the Belarus way:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What cracks me up about that article is this: 

_"While most European countries are quarantining their citizens and shutting borders, the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, is not worried and has even suggested citizens *drink vodka to combat the disease.*" _

 I mean, really? What the hell could go wrong?


----------



## robot zombie (Mar 30, 2020)

The news about Russia doesn't surpise me. Coincidentally, I keep correspondence with someone in Russia (totally NOT what is sounds like ...butwedotalk) and I had mentioned it, just kind of wishing them well - this was 3 weeks ago, when things were just starting to get really real stateside. I'm just going to quote what he said in our last e-mail convo verbatim:


			
				random russian guy said:
			
		

> We don't have any panic at [all?], our people are trained for much bigger shocks. These shocks are already tired, I want to live a normal, quiet life)



Can't really assume much from that, but I thought it was an interesting sentiment. This idea of persevering through a normal, quiet existence sounds pretty up a modern Russian's alley.

I personally don't think this will go well or last. Ignorance is bliss, I suppose. But if that's more the mindset, I wonder how their lifestyles and ways of operating might differ a little from the typical western way. If my buddy's attitude here is at all common, I might be inclined to think it won't spread as fast due to more people naturally keeping to themselves a little more as is. "Russia is a cold place."

Still don't think that's enough. It might be a little slower to spread, but not a lot of good from that when you're just as slow to react. Not to mention it's not like they're totally asocial compared to other places. I might wonder how many people cross Russia's borders and what the patterns are compared to some of the 'hub' nations that have been hit really hard. Don't really know much about how they're set-up there, in general.

Also... the vodka thing. I remember coming across a story where somebody drank 70% isopropyl and wound up hospitalized after somebody online joked that drinking enough of it would travel everywhere in the body and kill the virus. Of course, that's not going to work because your body is not a sponge that soaks-up liquids you drink, where it just wicks out everywhere. It goes through your GI tract, to your bloodstream in very small concentrations, and then back out. Not sure if that story is true. I don't know how anyone could've believed that was how drinking things worked in the first place.

But then people ARE doing things like getting stuck on cruises and dying from eating fish tank cleaner so...


----------



## remixedcat (Mar 30, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> What are you talking about? Southern Utah has a ton of people. For example, St. George is a well loved retirement community.


----------



## HTC (Mar 30, 2020)

Spotted this @ Anandtech forums: it's an explanation of how this virus kills people, in more "friendly" language. I bit long but worth it, IMO:


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 30, 2020)

The short answer is pneumonia.  The lungs fill with fluid, diaphragm can no longer contract, stop breathing.  This is where mechanical ventilators are required: they force air into the lungs via air tube inserted into the trachea.  If the lungs are so full of fluid they can no longer exchange adequate carbon dioxide for oxygen...then not even a ventilator can save you.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 30, 2020)

The even shorter answer is: it attacks your respiratory system, you feel chocked and cough yourself to death.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 30, 2020)

HTC said:


> Spotted this @ Anandtech forums: it's an explanation of how this virus kills people, in more "friendly" language. I bit long but worth it, IMO:



Never a good sign when a surgeon says, "Oops, I've made a mess". (Inner voice, Your suppose to be good with your hands and be steady. Hold your props steady your making me nervous)

Now I got to find out if hes practicing and to stay away.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Mar 30, 2020)

^ Wonderful video. A bit lengthy, yes, but INCREDIBLY important 

@Regeneration -- More like it curb stomps your respiratory system and suffocates you to death because your lungs are flooded


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 30, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Yes, peer pressure can do wonders but we have a very divided populace here.  To me, it seems more divided than just about any time in history.  You have a somewhat appearance of national unity.  As divided as we are, it does not bode well to slow this.  I am not usually gloom and doom but I feel this division will greatly exacerbate this problem.
> 
> When some news anchors wish for a recession to remove the president and that gets broadcast to half the population, how do you reconcile that to come together?
> 
> ...



And here I thought we had a problem over here and some sort of divide similar to yours with twats like Baudet and Geert Wilders... (Not going to put links, Google if interested, you might recognize the latter, but hopefully not). Anyway the nationalist right wing thing isn't unique to the US. Man... I hope you're wrong and people start seeing the light, soon. The figures ain't pretty.

I think you guys desperately need this:






						Polder model - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






the54thvoid said:


> Well, there's a common sense way to try and prevent the spread, and there's the Belarus way:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah... Putin gave Russia a one week free (paid) holiday... similar case to Brazil where local governments enforce stronger lockdowns and national is trying to somehow keep up appearances. On Sunday the mayor of Moscow already enforced a tighter lockdown. And similar to Brazil, the Russians themselves have started stockpiling because they know better and have seen this before...


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 30, 2020)

All countries are going to look more like Italy and Spain than China because of access (or lack thereof) to N-95 masks.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 30, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> All countries are going to look more like Italy and Spain than China because of access (or lack thereof) to N-95 masks.



And people who can't stay home. Like me at the moment, craving for some cereal.

The local grocery store sells N95 masks (for a rip off price).

Street is still full of people… moms with little kids.


----------



## Drone (Mar 30, 2020)

Coronavirus timeline:
January 19: 100 cases
January 24: 1000 cases
February 12: 50000 cases
March 6: 100000 cases
March 18: 200000 cases
March 21: 300000 cases
March 24: 400000 cases 
March 26: 500000 cases 
March 28: 600000 cases  
March 29: 700000 cases


----------



## the54thvoid (Mar 30, 2020)

And in graph layout (posted elsewhere):





__





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					www.gisaid.org
				




Doesn't give a US total for deaths - have to add up state by state.


----------



## Flanker (Mar 30, 2020)

Stats with graphs and maps of New Zealand, almost 600 cases with 12 hospitalized. 




__





						COVID-19: Current cases
					

Information about confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand.




					www.health.govt.nz


----------



## TheLostSwede (Mar 30, 2020)

Apparently the virus isn't airborne, outside of people coughing or sneezing and it spreading via water droplets.




__





						Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations
					

Scientific brief




					www.who.int


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 30, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> And in graph layout (posted elsewhere):
> 
> 
> 
> ...


that's the original map from the first post... different url.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 30, 2020)

For the LOLs:
Class-action lawsuit against Chinese government for creating COVID-19 'biological weapon'

Also on Fox News:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/class-action-suit-seeks-to-make-china-pay

Comments there are priceless.

And by the way, Google has its own COVID-19 map:
https://www.google.com/covid19-map/


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 30, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Apparently the virus isn't airborne, outside of people coughing or sneezing and it spreading via water droplets.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Must read. Very informative.


----------



## HTC (Mar 30, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 6408 confirmed infected
- 140 fatalities
- 43 recovered - no change, since 4 days ago ???
- dunno number of those waiting for test results

- 3 cases detected in our jails
- Our government will perform over 10K tests to ascertain the number of infected in all retirement homes in a few select regions, with the intention to extend it to the whole country: the objective is to test both residents and workers in these residences since there are several of these homes already with cases.

The number of new cases increased much less VS yesterday but the unknown number of those waiting for tests results worries me.


----------



## INSTG8R (Mar 30, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> For the LOLs:
> Class-action lawsuit against Chinese government for creating COVID-19 'biological weapon'
> 
> Also on Fox News:
> ...


Thanks the Fox article was amusing but the comments were  gravy


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 30, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Doesn't give a US total for deaths - have to add up state by state.


If you click on the US in the left it shows on the right the total deaths.





More confirmed cases in Alaska on top of yesterdays it looks like. Three Alaskans have died.











						Third Alaskan with COVID-19 dies, statewide case total rises to at least 114
					

A third Alaskan who previously tested positive for COVID-19 has died, and the total case count for the state has grown to at least 114.




					www.ktuu.com


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 30, 2020)

New Louisiana numbers for the last 24 hours.  4,025 cases reported.  185 deaths.  1,158 are hospitalized, with 385 on ventilators.  We have a total of 34,000 tests conducted.









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 30, 2020)

Has there been any talk about this?


> Governments worldwide are employing several strategies to track the spread of Covid-19, and the US too has started using anonymized location data from mobile ads to get a clear picture of the pandemic's evolution. The pretext of using surveillance to plan an appropriate response to the virus has also raised some questions about the persistence of these measures once the situation is under control.











						US officials are using location data from mobile ads to map the spread of Covid-19
					

Earlier this month, there were reports that talked about the US government's intention to work with tech firms on tracking the coronavirus pandemic. This meant that authorities...




					www.techspot.com


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 30, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> Has there been any talk about this?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not that I read.

That is sooooooooooooooo awesome and sooooooooooo disconcerting at the same time, lol.



rtwjunkie said:


> New Louisiana numbers for the last 24 hours.  4,025 cases reported.  185 deaths.  1,158 are hospitalized, with 385 on ventilators.  We have a total of 34,000 tests conducted.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


25% hospitalization.. that feels like a lot compared to the average??


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 30, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> 25% hospitalization.. that feels like a lot compared to the average??


Idk. I hadnt had an opportunity to check against other locations. However, if it is high, Louisiana has a disproportionate number of people with obesity, heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure and even cancers.  Many of the cancer clusters come from along the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, due to a plethora of oil refineries and chemical manufacturing plants.

I’m sure these unhealthy numbers would explain the need for that high hospitalization?


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 30, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> Has there been any talk about this?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I have read about it.  This surveillance tech has been in place for quite some time so I would surmise it is already being used for intelligence based ops but likely just starting to be used to outbreak tracking.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 30, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> And by the way, Google has its own COVID-19 map:
> https://www.google.com/covid19-map/


That's not bad. Interesting take on things. Not as detailed as the Johns Hopkins Map though..


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 30, 2020)

More and more morgue refrigerator trucks showing up in more hospitals. From Chicago to NY

one NY hospital has 5 parked outside



Spoiler: May not be appropriate for children















*Update:*
NY Bellevue Hospital Center has 8
NYU Langone Hospital has 12


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 30, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> More and more morgue refrigerator trucks showing up in more hospitals. From Chicago to NY
> 
> one NY hospital has 5 parked outside
> 
> ...



It sucks being right, this time.


----------



## repman244 (Mar 30, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Idk. I hadnt had an opportunity to check against other locations. However, if it is high, Louisiana has a disproportionate number of people with obesity, heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure and even cancers.  Many of the cancer clusters come from along the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, due to a plethora of oil refineries and chemical manufacturing plants.
> 
> I’m sure these unhealthy numbers would explain the need for that high hospitalization?



It also depends which people are being tested. If only elderly or those with possible severe cases you get a high percentage of hospitalization/death rate. If you test everyone who sneezes, the percent would be much lower.


----------



## freeagent (Mar 30, 2020)

April first we shut down for 2 weeks. All non essential business to close, including the machine shop I work at. Booooo.

Plot twist, apparently we are an essential service, we aren’t closing..


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 31, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> All countries are going to look more like Italy and Spain than China because of access (or lack thereof) to N-95 masks.



Hospitals across the country were reporting thefts of N-95 earlier in the year. Even the NY Gov. commented during one of his press briefings at the beginning of the month.



> "Not just people taking a couple or three, I mean just actual thefts of those products," Cuomo said.


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 31, 2020)

Regarding the use of masks...








						A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers
					

The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of cloth masks to medical masks in hospital healthcare workers (HCWs). The null hypothesis is that there is no difference between medical masks and cloth masks.14 secondary-level/tertiary-level hospitals ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				



this was conducted 5 years ago, but I wouldn't expect the efficacy of cloth to have changed much in the last 5 years...


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 31, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Regarding the use of masks...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting read and great timing.  My wife and I were just debating this.


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 31, 2020)

Bloody coronavirus the numbers just keep raising and this is the worst time for this.

Spring is when my allergies start to act up. And with the ADHD, I'm climbing the walls.

What am I going to do with Mein Leben?


----------



## freeagent (Mar 31, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Bloody coronavirus the numbers just keep raising and this is the worst time for this.
> 
> Spring is when my allergies start to act up. And with the ADHD, I'm climbing the walls.
> 
> What am I going to do with Mein Leben?


Make a linpack type app for gpus


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 31, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> What am I going to do with Mein Leben?


Well, climbing the walls in isolation will ensure that you still have your life later.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 31, 2020)

This was an interesting read.


> Running and interpreting lateral flow immunoassays takes very little training, and the results are generally available within 20 minutes or so. Compared to the hours needed for a qPCR assay, not to mention the certified labs and the time needed to ship samples to them, the benefits of a point-of-care immunoassay are obvious.
> 
> Currently, there are at least nine lateral flow immunoassays for various SARS-CoV-2 proteins being developed. Some of them are shipping, some are in validation, and some are seeking approval from regulators. But all of them are based on the amazing complexity and adaptability of the immune system, the system that’s tasked with keeping humans alive in a world where challenges come is the smallest and most insidious packages imaginable.











						Coronavirus Testing Follow-Up: Rapid Immunologic Testing
					

When I started writing my recent article on COVID-19 testing, I assumed that I would be doing a compare and contrast sort of article. Like many people, I assumed that the “gold standard&#8221…




					hackaday.com
				




Alaska now has 119 confirmed cases from 114 on Monday. 


> Two are from the Anchorage area, two from Fairbanks, and one from Palmer; one is male, and four are female according to Zink.
> 
> Two are considered close contacts, and the other three are still under investigation to determine if their cases are travel-related or community spread.
> 
> ...











						5 new COVID-19 cases announced; Gov. Dunleavy, Congressional Delegation discuss state and federal response to COVID-19
					

Five new cases of COVID-19 were reported by DHSS Monday, bringing Alaska's case count total to at least 119.




					www.ktuu.com


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 31, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Bloody coronavirus the numbers just keep raising and this is the worst time for this.
> 
> Spring is when my allergies start to act up. And with the ADHD, I'm climbing the walls.
> 
> What am I going to do with Mein Leben?


Perspective is needed. As of the moment of this post, in approximate numbers;
7,800,000,000  Earth population
786,000  Currently infected
166,000  Recovered
38,000  Current death toll

I think everyone who is feeling tense needs to take a deep breath and think through the reality of this situation.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 31, 2020)

What do you guys think about calls to shut down jails where there has been an inmate who test positive for COVID-19 ?

Some jails already started doing early releases for sentences.



			
				NY Times said:
			
		

> On Monday, for instance, after weeks of cooperating with city officials, the city’s five district attorneys attacked the “seemingly haphazard process” by which people, *including some accused of violent crimes, were being released*.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 31, 2020)

Bad idea.  They're the most likely to start problems in society with little to no public response.  Those little things could be the trigger for a riot.

You can't keep them detained for their own safety and you can't let them go for society's safety. It's a lose-lose situation.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 31, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> What do you guys think about calls to shut down jails where there has been an inmate who test positive for COVID-19 ?
> 
> Some jails already started doing early releases for sentences.


While interesting, that topic of discussion belongs in the other thread. Please take it there;


			https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 31, 2020)

California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation
Population COVID-19 Tracking
www.cdcr.ca.gov/covid19/population-status-tracking/


----------



## Regeneration (Mar 31, 2020)

I log to Facebook and what do I see?




That really pissed me off.

People eatting weird animals after COVID-19.


----------



## P4-630 (Mar 31, 2020)

Netherlands update: 175 died in the past 24 hours, 1039 total. 12595 infected.


----------



## LFaWolf (Mar 31, 2020)

My apology if anyone has already posted this prior as this thread is 30 pages long now. Here is the projected hospital utilization - https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

My state CA has taken a decisive step for an early shelter in place. Here is hoping that helps as it did buy us some time for the peak. Also,


----------



## Readlight (Mar 31, 2020)

Perhaps I should make home in my food storage cellar and lock in.


----------



## HTC (Mar 31, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 7443 confirmed infected
- 160 fatalities
- 43 recovered - STILL????? No change, since 5 days ago
- dunno number of those waiting for test results

Some other info today:

- 627 hospitalized
- 188 in ICU

Biggest jump in confirmed cases: an increase of over 1K since yesterday 

I believe this is a consequence of a high number of people waiting for test results, though i can't say for certain since this number hasn't been posted in the last two days but, judging from the 5508 waiting from 2 days ago, i'd say is quite substantial


----------



## Ahhzz (Mar 31, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> - 7443 confirmed infected
> - 160 fatalities
> ...


I'm betting we'll start seeing a large jump in reported cases now that the tests are getting to be a bit more wide-spread. Personally, _I think, _this is actually a positive thing, as I believe that people who really didn't feel bad enough to get hospitalized are more likely to go ahead and get tested now that the tests are easier to get. I'm hoping that means that we'll be seeing more postiives, but they're the type of positives that aren't suffering from serious effects, and this result will mean they'll need to get off the street, whereas before they might have just said "Nah, I'm probably fine, I need to go to the store/work/Mom's anyway"....


----------



## Vario (Mar 31, 2020)

Veel patiënten op IC met overgewicht, 'maar ga nu niet te streng diëten'
					

Ruim 80 procent van de patiënten die op de IC liggen, zijn mensen met overgewicht. Zij hebben meer kans op complicaties. Artsen begrijpen de zorgen van mensen met obesitas, maar waarschuwen voor de gevolgen van een crash-dieet.




					nos.nl
				



80% of the coronavirus patients hospitalized in the ICU in the netherlands are obese.  Overall population obesity rate in NL is ~14% (cbs.nl).



> 80 percent of the corona patients who are in the ICU are overweight. Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Association for Intensive Care, came on Friday in the television program Jinek with these figures. According to Gommers, being overweight can be the result of, for example, diabetes or high blood pressure. Overweight people also have a heavier chest which makes it more difficult for them to breathe











						Coronavirus: new figures on intensive care deaths revealed
					

Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities will be




					www.theguardian.com
				



Similarly in UK, obesity is a risk factor for COVID19.  Overall UK population obesity rate is 28% (UK Health Survey)


> The audit suggested that men are at much higher risk from the virus – seven in ten of all ICU patients were male, while 30% of men in critical care were under 60, compared to just 15% of women. Excess weight also appears to be a significant risk factor; over 70% of patients were overweight, obese or clinically obese on the body mass index scale.


----------



## Lindatje (Mar 31, 2020)

LFaWolf said:


> My apology if anyone has already posted this prior as this thread is 30 pages long now. Here is the projected hospital utilization - https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
> 
> My state CA has taken a decisive step for an early shelter in place. Here is hoping that helps as it did buy us some time for the peak. Also,
> 
> View attachment 149877


The Flu is like 10% when you measure the same as with the corona virus.

In the flu, they measure the number of people they *estimate*, in the case of the U.S., that's 34,000,000 according to the CDC. With the corona virus, they measure the number of *confirmed* cases. For the *confirmed cases of the flu* in the U.S., that's ~ 220,000 and ~ 22,000 deaths, so that's 10%.


----------



## Devon68 (Mar 31, 2020)

Looking at the numbers I still fell like this is just the beginning. I'm no expert but I guess the number of infected will be around  1.8 million and the number of dead will be around 120.000 before this ties down. Most people dont take it seriously enough and break self-isolation and just walk around like it's not a pandemic.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 31, 2020)

Devon68 said:


> Most people dont take it seriously enough and break self-isolation and just walk around like it's not a pandemic.


There's a reason for that.


----------



## biffzinker (Mar 31, 2020)

Anyone seen this in the national news about pink eye being a symptom related to a covid-19 infection in the eye/s?









						Important coronavirus updates for ophthalmologists
					

The Academy is sharing important ophthalmology-specific information related to the novel coronavirus, referred to as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The highly contagious




					www.aao.org


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 31, 2020)

New Daily Louisiana numbers:

5,237 cases (4,025 yesterday)
239 deaths (185 yesterday)
1,355 hospitalized (1,185 yesterday)
438 on ventilators (385 yesterday)
39,000 tests have been conducted (34,000 yesterday)









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov
				






biffzinker said:


> Anyone seen this in the national news about pink eye being a symptom related to a covid-19 infection in the eye/s?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes, yesterday. It is not as common as other symptoms, so take it in conjuction with other symptoms.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 31, 2020)

You went up 25% in a day (# of cases)...wow.


----------



## Vario (Mar 31, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> The Flu is like 10% when you measure the same as with the corona virus.
> 
> In the flu, they measure the number of people they *estimate*, in the case of the U.S., that's 34,000,000 according to the CDC. With the corona virus, they measure the number of *confirmed* cases. For the *confirmed cases of the flu* in the U.S., that's ~ 220,000 and ~ 22,000 deaths, so that's 10%.


So for the flu, they park several refrigerated trucks outside the hospital to store bodies in because the morgue filled up?


----------



## rtwjunkie (Mar 31, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> You went up 25% in a day (# of cases)...wow.


I'm going to think positively, and that it is a side effect of 5,000 tests coming back.

The other thing is see is the spread. Although the New Orleans metropolitan area has about 3,300 of the cases, it's slowly dropping to the halfway point as more cases are found elsewhere in the state. 

TLDR: isolation in New Orleans area may be starting to work as the number of new cases are becoming less, while increasing elsewhere. New Orleans was the first place in the state to enact strict isolation measures.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 31, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I'm going to think positively, and that it is a side effect of 5,000 tests coming back.
> 
> The other thing is see is the spread. Although the New Orleans metropolitan area has about 3,300 of the cases, it's slowly dropping to the halfway point as more cases are found elsewhere in the state.


That feels like a large percentage to me. It looks like yesterday you tested almost 7k people and jumped up 500 cases. Today was 5k tested and 1,200. Meaningless nugget by itself... but let's hope it doesn't trend up.






Sounds like social distancing starting to do its thing in higher pop density locations (RE: spread)..


----------



## LFaWolf (Mar 31, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> The Flu is like 10% when you measure the same as with the corona virus.
> 
> In the flu, they measure the number of people they *estimate*, in the case of the U.S., that's 34,000,000 according to the CDC. With the corona virus, they measure the number of *confirmed* cases. For the *confirmed cases of the flu* in the U.S., that's ~ 220,000 and ~ 22,000 deaths, so that's 10%.



This is the original article. You may dispute your interpretation of the data with the author - https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3


----------



## repman244 (Mar 31, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> The Flu is like 10% when you measure the same as with the corona virus.
> 
> In the flu, they measure the number of people they *estimate*, in the case of the U.S., that's 34,000,000 according to the CDC. With the corona virus, they measure the number of *confirmed* cases. For the *confirmed cases of the flu* in the U.S., that's ~ 220,000 and ~ 22,000 deaths, so that's 10%.



It's not just the death rate that is the problem, it's the number of people needing hospitalization - that is because the corona virus is much more contagious than the flu, you can't even compare the two.
And you are much more likely to get pneumonia from corona.

So let's assume you're a healthy person and you get the coronavirus and pneumonia - which will probably leave some damage to the lungs. So you successfully recover and (supposedly) you are now immune to it for some time (nobody knows if permanently).
If it's not permanent immunity and you get it again in the same severe form as before, but now you get it with damaged lungs...you can see where this is going.
Yes it's a complex scenario but since nobody knows how will all this unfold it's not impossible to happen.
That's why I'm trying to steer well away from getting it, despite my lower age. I want my lungs to be healthy.


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 31, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Yes, yesterday. It is not as common as other symptoms, so take it in conjuction with other symptoms.



Conjunctivitisly you mean.


----------



## EarthDog (Mar 31, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Conjunctivitisly you mean.


ehhh... that IS the condition name, but that isn't the proper word there. That looks to say exactly what it means.

...unless you are playing on words and I missed it.. ICWUTUDIDTHUR!


----------



## moproblems99 (Mar 31, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> ehhh... that IS the condition name, but that isn't the proper word there. That looks to say exactly what it means.
> 
> ...unless you are playing on words and I missed it.. ICWUTUDIDTHUR!



Take it conjunctivitisly with the other symptoms....oh jeez, I'm dying over here.


----------



## Vayra86 (Mar 31, 2020)

P4-630 said:


> Netherlands update: 175 died in the past 24 hours, 1039 total. 12595 infected.



While sad, we do seem to be stabilizing... apparently. One more month in zombieland at least...


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Mar 31, 2020)

'It's just impossible': tracing contacts takes backseat as virus spreads
					

Faced with more than 70 cases of the novel coronavirus and a deadly outbreak in an assisted living community in his town, Ed Briggs is overwhelmed.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Devon68 (Mar 31, 2020)

> Anyone seen this in the national news about pink eye being a symptom related to a covid-19 infection in the eye/s?


The thing they mention in the vid is not pinkeye but he did have some problems with his eyes.


----------



## Xzibit (Mar 31, 2020)

Devon68 said:


> The thing they mention in the vid is not pinkeye but he did have some problems with his eyes.



He says he hasnt been in contact with anyone in 2 weeks. Did he film those other videos weeks in advance or youtuber being a youtuber.


----------



## Drone (Mar 31, 2020)

As if diabetes or asthma weren't bad enough now these people are even more vulnerable


----------



## Caring1 (Apr 1, 2020)

Vario said:


> Veel patiënten op IC met overgewicht, 'maar ga nu niet te streng diëten'
> 
> 
> Ruim 80 procent van de patiënten die op de IC liggen, zijn mensen met overgewicht. Zij hebben meer kans op complicaties. Artsen begrijpen de zorgen van mensen met obesitas, maar waarschuwen voor de gevolgen van een crash-dieet.
> ...


Have they proven causation?
One could also say 90% of elderly people that die have a cat or small dog, but that doesn't mean they are the cause of death.



Drone said:


> As if diabetes or asthma weren't bad enough now these people are even more vulnerable


I'm stuffed if I get it, I tick all of the above in that video.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 1, 2020)

Drone said:


> As if diabetes or asthma weren't bad enough now these people are even more vulnerable



Great my mom is diabetic.

My whole family is going to die, and there goes my family business.

Well, let's hope not...  Maybe if I keep playing Kerbal Space Program my problems will go away...


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 1, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> Have they proven causation?
> One could also say 90% of elderly people that die have a cat or small dog, but that doesn't mean they are the cause of death.


Well, it makes sense.  All that fat (especially a big gut) pushes against the diaphragm which drastically reduces ventilator effectiveness.  If ventilator can't keep you alive, well, you're dead.

Huh, actually there's a paradox...








						Mechanical ventilation in obese ICU patients: from intubation to extubation - Critical Care
					

This article is one of ten reviews selected from the Annual Update in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine 2017. Other selected articles can be found online at http://ccforum.com/series/annualupdate2017 . Further information about the Annual Update in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine is...




					ccforum.biomedcentral.com
				





> In particular, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in obese patients, in whom diaphragmatic function is challenging, has a lower mortality risk when compared with non‐obese patients [10, 11].





> Obese patients admitted to the ICU are at risk of atelectasis, which is associated with pulmonary complications.





> In patients with ARDS, prone position is a safe procedure which permits respiratory mechanic improvements and oxygenation.


NL and UK not putting obese patients on their belly?

Oh.  Not many beds support that...  In fact, I think only operating room tables are set up for that... Most definitely not enough to go around.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 1, 2020)

I'm obese...

Great, the facts have killed my entire family line...

Screw this.

*goes back to playing Kerbal"


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 1, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> NL and UK not putting obese patients on their belly?
> 
> Oh. Not many beds support that... In fact, I think only operating room tables are set up for that... Most definitely not enough to go around.



Maybe we can use these massage beds.  I bet enough of those are laying around.  I can't quite figure out why there are two holes though.



Spoiler: Bed














R-T-B said:


> Well, let's hope not... Maybe if I keep playing Kerbal Space Program my problems will go away...



Are they really problems if you don't pay attention to them.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 1, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Maybe we can use these massage beds.  I bet enough of those are laying around.  I can't quite figure out why there are two holes though.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Bed


Not sure if the hole is big enough for all the equipment to fit through.

The crotch hole is so that if they're pressing in the pelvis area, dude's junk has somewhere to go lest there be...damage or discomfort...from the force applied.


I tried finding ICU beds equipped for belly intubation and I'm not finding anything.  I think it's only operating rooms.

I think I finally found an example:




See the two panels side by side? they slide out giving room for anesthesiologist to do everything.  If they have to flip the patient over, they can slide the tubes out of that canyon without removing them.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 1, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Maybe we can use these massage beds.  I bet enough of those are laying around.  I can't quite figure out why there are two holes though.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Bed



Oh geez, that crotch hole could also be used as a peep hole


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 1, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Are they really problems if you don't pay attention to them.



Only if they kill you.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

Devon68 said:


> The thing they mention in the vid is not pinkeye but he did have some problems with his eyes.



Wow man, cringe in full effect over here. I hope I come out of it.


----------



## Regeneration (Apr 1, 2020)

Coronavirus testing kits came contaminated with COVID-19
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-coronavirus-testing-hindered-key-components/

And by the way, Chinese scientists claim people with blood type O are a bit more resistant to the virus.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2.full.pdf+html


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> One could also say 90% of elderly people that die have a cat or small dog



Well, if they take the dog out for walks often enough, I doubt they'll be part of the statistic 

I think part of what we're seeing here is just that obesity is already a major cause of injury and death, or at least contributor to it. If you have chronic weaknesses of whatever kind in your organs, most notably those related to the lungs and breathing, COVID-19 seems to be your nemesis.


----------



## Rahnak (Apr 1, 2020)

White House briefing a few hours ago said that their death projection without any mitigation measures would've been between 1.5 and 2.2 million and between 100 and 240k with mitigation measures. They also have a projection of a peak of 2.214 daily deaths by April 15th with mitigation measures. Pretty rough numbers. Youtube livestream for those interested.


----------



## P4-630 (Apr 1, 2020)

_The Central Asian country of Turkmenistan claims it has no coronavirus cases. But if you happen to utter the word "coronavirus" while waiting, say, for the bus in the white-marbled capital Ashgabat, there's a good chance you'll be arrested.

That's because the Turkmen government, run since 2006 by the flamboyant dentist-rapper strongman Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, has reportedly banned the word, according to Paris-based Reporters Without Borders (RSF).

Citing reports from Chronicles of Turkmenistan, which RSF describes as a rare independent media outlet in this notoriously secretive and restrictive country, the press freedom organization says Berdymukhamedov's government has forbidden state-controlled media from writing or uttering the word and has ordered its removal from health brochures distributed at hospitals, schools and workplaces.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondents in Ashgabat report that plainclothes police officers are also arresting people who wear face masks or discuss the pandemic in public.

"This denial of information not only endangers the Turkmen citizens most at risk, but also reinforces the authoritarianism imposed by President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov," Jeanne Cavelier, the head of Reporters Without Borders' Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk, said in a statement. "We urge the international community to react and to take him to task for his systematic human rights violations."


Turkmenistan's neighbor to the south, Iran, is one of the countries worst hit by the coronavirus. Other neighboring countries in Central Asia have hundreds of confirmed cases.

Turkmenistan is ranked last in RSF's World Press Freedom Index. It's a place where speaking out is punished and where the government frequently shuts down the country for no reason, says Alexander A. Cooley, director of the Harriman Institute at Columbia University and an expert on Central Asian politics.

"Banning the term 'coronavirus' might seem to us obscene and extreme," Cooley says. "But in reality, when the state controls all of the media and all of the digital nodes coming in and out, it's not that outrageous. My sense is that they'll try and keep [the pandemic] under wraps as long as they can."

Cooley says the government likely anticipates a big post-pandemic economic collapse in a country highly reliant on the sale of natural gas to China.

"That probably spurred the government on to this new kind of more denialist type of posture," he says.

Berdymukhamedov doesn't want to look weak, he says, because he "portrays himself very much as a superman of all trades, the one in charge, the one to be revered and listened to."_










						Turkmenistan Has Banned Use Of The Word 'Coronavirus'
					

Reporters Without Borders says the government has forbidden state-controlled media from using the word and ordered its removal from health brochures distributed at hospitals, schools and workplaces.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Vario (Apr 1, 2020)

I think its worth emphasizing that he is a *flamboyant dentist-rapper strongman*, so he knows how to handle this crisis.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

Vario said:


> I think its worth emphasizing that he is a *flamboyant dentist-rapper strongman*, so he knows how to handle this crisis.



Imagine him being a flamboyant rapper while pulling teeth! I can totally see it


----------



## Frick (Apr 1, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> Well, let's hope not...  Maybe if I keep playing Kerbal Space Program my problems will go away...



That's how I deal with everything.


----------



## Drone (Apr 1, 2020)

Experts say that wearing masks is important. Even bandana or t-shirt will do. Scientists say that two layers of cotton is pretty effective.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

Drone said:


> Experts say that wearing masks is important. Even bandana or t-shirt will do. Scientists say that two layers of cotton is pretty effective.



WHO disagrees with that. You oughta check your sources.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 1, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> WHO disagrees with that. You oughta check your sources.



Let's not forget in mid-January the WHO said this was not transmittable person to person.  I would have thought it was pretty obvious at that point.

Edit: I should say 'no evidence'.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Let's not forget in mid-January the WHO said this was not transmittable person to person.  I would have thought it was pretty obvious at that point.
> 
> Edit: I should say 'no evidence'.



The science does evolve, but it doesn't evolve in all directions at the same time. A brief from several days ago still said the same about mask usage, the required type, etc. Don't mistake fake news for science. 'Experts say' is a big fat red warning sign that it is some nobody from nowhere spouting BS without community support

There is overwhelming evidence that cloth masks are an infection *risk *rather than a solution.


----------



## Drone (Apr 1, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> WHO disagrees with that. You oughta check your sources.


So your logic is wearing no mask is better than wearing a mask? Ridiculous.


----------



## Ahhzz (Apr 1, 2020)

Drone said:


> So your logic is wearing no mask is better than wearing a mask? Ridiculous.


Drone, I would say that _technically_, you are correct in that wearing a mask is better than no mask. However, there's a huge number of caveats that go with that. According to WHO, the number of steps required to ensure that you're not self- or re-contaminating is extensive. I _personally_ feel that with something like a cloth mask or surgical mask, the amount of time those masks provide any protection is so short that I'll only be using something like that with someone who I know is infected, or myself if I get that unlucky.
I've not come across any specific numbers (I'm assuming because of the number of variables) that indicate how long a surgical or cotton mask is effective, but considering even the N95 masks are recommended to be swapped after exposure, or 8 hours, whichever comes first, I don't feel a non-N95 would be useful unless donning it immediately before being exposed, and safely removing it immediately after.
If you find something about the efficacy duration of the cotton/cloth/etc, please share it!! I've had a few clients ask about masks, and I'd love to be able to provide some solid data besides "Not very" and "Probably not" heheh.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 1, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Drone, I would say that _technically_, you are correct in that wearing a mask is better than no mask. However, there's a huge number of caveats that go with that. According to WHO, the number of steps required to ensure that you're not self- or re-contaminating is extensive. I _personally_ feel that with something like a cloth mask or surgical mask, the amount of time those masks provide any protection is so short that I'll only be using something like that with someone who I know is infected, or myself if I get that unlucky.
> I've not come across any specific numbers (I'm assuming because of the number of variable) that indicate how long a surgical or cotton mask is effective, but considering event the N95 masks are recommended to be swapped after exposure, or 8 hours, whichever comes first, I don't feel a non-N95 would be useful unless donning it immediately before being exposed, and safely removing it immediately after.
> If you find something about the efficacy duration of the cotton/cloth/etc, please share it!! I've had a few clients ask about masks, and I'd love to be able to provide some solid data besides "Not very" and "Probably not" heheh.



That is basically all I have so I'll let you know how effective it is should I need.  Keep in mind, it will be purely anecdotal.


----------



## HTC (Apr 1, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 8251 confirmed infected
- 187 fatalities
- 43 recovered - STILL????? No change, since SIX days ago
- 4957 waiting for test results
- 726 hospitalized
- 230 in ICU

This is the BIG PROBLEM of this virus, once someone needs hospitalization, they stay in the hospital for a LONG TIME, with or without ventilator: it's worse if they require a ventilator than if not but, as evidenced by the lack of "new" cured patients, this only gets worse. Of our 1142 ventilators, @ least 230 are being used for this virus: no word yet on that order of 500 ventilators our government placed 

Our National Aviation Company (TAP) will begin a "simplified layoff" of 90% of all their workers, with the 10% working less hours than normal.

Today, our President and Parliament will decide if the emergency state is to be renewed for another 15 days or not: supposedly yes.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Apr 1, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> There is overwhelming evidence that cloth masks are an infection *risk *rather than a solution.


Probably if you where the very same mask over&over again then yes...otherwise no it's better to have anything that will cover your mouth&nose.....


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 1, 2020)

Drone said:


> Experts say that wearing masks is important. Even bandana or t-shirt will do. Scientists say that two layers of cotton is pretty effective.


A yes, sneeze guards... Not going to help against anything else except reducing your spread of germs if you're sneezing.
Medical staff has been known to have gotten infected due to only wearing surgical masks, so no, regular cheap masks don't protect you at all. 



moproblems99 said:


> Let's not forget in mid-January the WHO said this was not transmittable person to person.  I would have thought it was pretty obvious at that point.
> 
> Edit: I should say 'no evidence'.


Not quite true, they said that China said so.


----------



## Devon68 (Apr 1, 2020)

> If you have chronic weaknesses of whatever kind in your organs, most notably those related to the lungs and breathing, COVID-19 seems to be your nemesis.


Well if I get it I fell like I'm boned. i have chronic kidney disease and high blood pressure. The good thing is that our company is not working till April 13-th.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 1, 2020)

April 1st COVID-19 numbers for Louisiana.  Pretty healthy increases in all categories. 

6,424 cases (5,237 yesterday)
273 deaths (239 yesterday)
1,498 hospitalized (1,355 yesterday)
490 on ventilators (438 yesterday)
45,750 tests (approximately) have been conducted (39,000 yesterday)

Breaking these down for the 5 parishes that comprise the New Orleans Metro Area.  Parenthesis will be just in New Orleans, and part of the total:
4,114 cases (2,270 NOLA)
192 Deaths (115 NOLA)









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 1, 2020)

I saw US cases hit a high one today. You got a huge population, large casualties are inevitable, unfortunately.


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 1, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> April 1st COVID-19 numbers for Louisiana.  Pretty healthy increases in all categories.
> 
> 6,424 cases (5,237 yesterday)
> 273 deaths (239 yesterday)
> ...


You went up another 1,200 from yesterday... that is 2 days in a row that high... 



the54thvoid said:


> I saw US cases hit a high one today. You got a huge population, large casualties are inevitable, unfortunately.


I believe we've been hitting new highs for days.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 1, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> You went up another 1,200 from yesterday... that is 2 days in a row that high...


Yeah.  Apparently we are nearly out of ventilators in this area of Louisiana, as well.  Today is my one day a week that I am part of a 2-person skeleton crew to work at the office. I've got mixed thoughts.  Traffic was much less than 2 weeks ago, which is good, and city streets are much more empty than usual, but at the same time, there still seems to be more people out and about than I would have thought.  Are there THAT many people that fit into the essential category?  Maybe so.  I think there are probably many not taking this seriously.

I did a breakdown also for just the New Orleans area and New Orleans itself.  The lion's share of cases and deaths are down in this area.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

Drone said:


> So your logic is wearing no mask is better than wearing a mask? Ridiculous.



Yes, because this is a respiratory illness so even if you have it, and you don't really know, you will want to breathe as easily as possible. Not doing so = sweating, and guess what... that's also a fluid, and it will stick to your hands and everything else you touch.

This is why people who have it should stay inside. Even if they don't sneeze or cough, they can still easily transmit it. Washing hands and sneezing in elbows, precisely not in that order though... yes, those are effective measures. Wearing masks, especially cloth, most certainly is not. The virus particles, even from a sneeze, can easily pass through (the elbow is therefore better, because its _closed_ _and you tend to look down._

So, for those who seek to ignore scientific evidence, a summary:
- you only have ANY benefit from wearing a mask when you have been diagnosed with Corona and are indeed sneezing and coughing. But when you do, nearly every country is telling you, or even straight up forcing you to stay inside.
- you would have to replace any mask you sneezed or coughed in very regularly or it loses its benefit. The material gets soaked and the filter won't work proper.
- you don't know whether you actually have this virus, you can be totally asymptomatic
- there are not enough proper masks for everyone

Do the math. Its not too hard. There is a community effort here and your best action is NOT to wear a certified mask and keep those for health workers who work in elevated risk environments. And even if you wear one, you never have enough of them to use them according to protocol which again is necessary to even have any advantage of them.

'The mask' is a psychological measure, its nice to have a little tool to defend yourself. Its also 100% an illusion that it helps in any way shape or form.

It happens every so often that scientifically the evidence to do this or that, goes completely against our human nature. But in history, many humans have died following basic human instincts too. The whole healthcare business is a result of that. We're too stupid to avoid all dangers and diseases, whethers its from a poisonous mushroom, or trading animals. This mask usage is more of the same. It may _feel good_, but it is *counterproductive*.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 1, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I saw US cases hit a high one today. You got a huge population, large casualties are inevitable, unfortunately.


This is true. However, the numbers say...

327,000,000 US population
190,740  Infected
4,127  Dead

The numbers say we're really doing very well.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> This true. However, the numbers say...
> 
> 327,000,000 US population
> 190,740  Infected
> ...



Now isolate New York, and its death rate is rivalling Italy, and we have yet to see the peak of the curve. Hell it could be weeks away. Its exactly as I said days before this hit the US... the cities will be horrifying, the countryside will have an easier time. That is exactly what is happening now.

The next step: the mostly Republican countryside will get the imported city cases and create further polarization in your society. Cue in 3, 2, 1


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 1, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> This true. However, the numbers say...
> 
> 327,000,000 US population
> 190,740  Infected
> ...



I wouldn't say you're doing really well. That implies some form of victory. That's not how viruses work. Take that sentiment to New York, or Louisiana. I know I won't make my point with you - you have your own mind, and that's fine - but every death is a brutal moment for a family. The US, by being so populace, will see many more. And it's not your Government's fault. It's just a statistic. Nature doesn't discriminate. And it's not a battle anybody wins. Losing lives is always a loss, no matter how it's twisted.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> April 1st COVID-19 numbers for Louisiana.  Pretty healthy increases in all categories.
> 
> 6,424 cases (5,237 yesterday)
> 273 deaths (239 yesterday)
> ...



I do hope your curve keeps looking like ours in NL over here, because it does. We are now starting to see minor effects from the partial lockdown measures. So... you've got a few weeks to go I'm afraid. Our measures have yesterday been lengthened to April 28. We can now slowly say we see effect from the measures taken on March 16...

And beyond that date... its going to be a very gradual return to normal life. There is no way things will immediately jump back to normal. They tried that in Asia, didn't quite work out.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 1, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> I do hope your curve keeps looking like ours in NL over here, because it does. We are now starting to see minor effects from the partial lockdown measures. So... you've got a few weeks to go I'm afraid. Our measures have yesterday been lengthened to April 28. We can now slowly say we see effect from the measures taken on March 16...
> 
> And beyond that date... its going to be a very gradual return to normal life. There is no way things will immediately jump back to normal. They tried that in Asia, didn't quite work out.


Thanks. I really figure it will be a few more weeks at least here before we start having drops in all the bad categories.  One thing I don't see much news of here are the number of recoveries. I'm going to see what I can find.  It seems we should be regularly reporting that as well.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 1, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Thanks. I really figure it will be a few more weeks at least here before we start having drops in all the bad categories.  One thing I don't see much news of here are the number of recoveries. I'm going to see what I can find.  It seems we should be regularly reporting that as well.



The reason for low recovery counts is because so far the conclusion has been that those who land on the ICU are staying there for exceptionally long periods of time, easily more than 14 days and often reaching into 20-28 days. That alone brings its own set of problems, such as muscles going weak (as in: simply losing them) which further complicates recovery. So you can quickly spiral out of control that way, I think this is also what contributes to the high death count.


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 1, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Thanks. I really figure it will be a few more weeks at least here before we start having drops in all the bad categories.  One thing I don't see much news of here are the number of recoveries. I'm going to see what I can find.  It seems we should be regularly reporting that as well.


I believe both links in the first post display recoveries? The second link shows it by state.

AS far as recovered.. I have to admit I don't think it's relevant. Those who don't die, recover. I also don't know what is considered 'recovered' by these charts either or how it is tracked. Until I hear more, this number doesn't mean much (to me).


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 1, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> AS far as recovered.. I have to admit I don't think it's relevant. Those who don't die, recover. I also don't know what is considered 'recovered' by these charts either or how it is tracked. Until I hear more, this number doesn't mean much (to me)


This is almost exactly what the Louisiana Department of Health reported when asked yesterday.  They said they are focused on tracking and dealing with the sick.  Also because the larger majority of cases are not hospitalized, it's hard to know when those people recover.  So, they will get to it later once they know how many died, basically.


----------



## Rahnak (Apr 1, 2020)

To be declared recovered from the virus you need two negative tests with a 24h interval. That may be a factor for the low increase in recovery numbers in a few places as tests are still in very high demand and relatively low availability.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 1, 2020)

They're saying people can be asymptomatic but still spread the virus six days after the symptoms are gone.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 1, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I wouldn't say you're doing really well. That implies some form of victory.


The numbers say otherwise. The statement wasn't meant to be a statement of victory, it was meant to offer perspective on the current situation.


the54thvoid said:


> Take that sentiment to New York, or Louisiana.


Or California and Washington..


the54thvoid said:


> I know I won't make my point with you - you have your own mind, and that's fine


Um, ok.


the54thvoid said:


> but every death is a brutal moment for a family.


That's true. However, just because this virus is out there doesn't mean people are going to die from it. Nor does it mean people are going to stop dying from other things.


the54thvoid said:


> The US, by being so populace, will see many more.


Again, the numbers are not telling that story.


the54thvoid said:


> And it's not your Government's fault. It's just a statistic. Nature doesn't discriminate. And it's not a battle anybody wins.


True on all points. Trying to lay blame is like trying to put C3PO back together with bubblegum...


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 1, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> You went up another 1,200 from yesterday... that is 2 days in a row that high...
> 
> I believe we've been hitting new highs for days.




Don't worry, us here in Florida said: 'Hold my beer' over the last two weeks.

Edit: We also just got a stay at home until May 1.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 1, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> True on all points. Trying to lay blame is like trying to put C3PO back together with bubblegum...



Yes, with his head on backwards.


----------



## Xzibit (Apr 1, 2020)

So here is the count for those trucks sent to NY

*NY Post: FEMA sending 85 refrigerated trucks to New York City for COVID-19 bodies*



			
				NY Post said:
			
		

> “We are sending refrigeration trucks to New York to help with some of the problem on a temporary basis,” FEMA regional director Thomas Von Essen said at a Manhattan press briefing with Mayor Bill de Blasio on Monday.
> The city is expecting FEMA to send 85 trucks. Although their capacity was not immediately available, similar trailers already in use hold 40 bodies each. The additional FEMA trucks could double the city’s morgue capacity from 3,500 to 7,000.



They also sent



> The Federal Emergency Management Agency is sending *250 ambulances, about 500 EMTs and paramedics* and 85 refrigerated trucks to serve as temporary mortuaries to New York City, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S., city officials said Tuesday.
> 
> The military has also provided 42 people to the Manhattan Medical Examiner’s Office where there is a “desperate need” for help in Queens, Von Essen said.





There is also word that inmates could be used for labor to dig graves.


----------



## Gab (Apr 1, 2020)

Well, I live in Madrid (Spain).

The situation here is bad. Really bad. We have today more than 100,000 infected and our numbers and infected curve is aproaching fast to the Italy curve and cases. Hospitals, doctors and health service is close to collapse. In some regions it is already.

Two months ago the politicians and a lot of people were minimizing this outbreak. They thought that it was a problem too far. A chill and a bad feeling ran through my body. Noboby in the government take actions to prevent, not even contingency plans.
In early March and after seeing the situation in Italy, the situation remained the same. People was thinking in Easter week, 'Fallas', popular demonstrations, people lived and had normal lives. I felt helpless, everyone was kidding about it.

A week after, the epidemic emerged with numerous cases and exponentially it was reproducing. The situation was out of control and our health system barely could absorb the sick. Our medics and nurses ran out soon of the proper medical equipment (consequence of many years of the politicians reducing and dismantling the strong public healthcare that Spain had yesteryear). Now these people, our medics, are in a 'medical state of war'. Last time the healthcare had a moment of this type was the attacks of Al Qaeda of March 11, 2004 here in Madrid. According to the doctors today, everyday is like that day now.

We were in confinement two weeks now. But I have a job (electronics and computing) which is 'essential' for the state and I can't do the confinement. My company minimized the outbreak and even today the security measures are insufficient. There were positive cases in my job place. I'm scared. Everyday go to job with fear. It can be I may already be infected or I may be asymptomatic. The worst thing is that I don't know. There is no testing here at the moment. Everyday young and relatively young people die. I know I can die.

My advices:

1) take you seriously this outbreak. Don't make our mistakes.
2) confinement. Do it. And only go out home to buy food.
3) don' make personal contacts with anybody, even family.
4) wash your hands periodically and don't touch your face always you can.
5) use masks and gloves.

Friends, good luck.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 1, 2020)

Gab said:


> 4) wash your hands periodically and don't touch your face always you can.
> 5) use masks and gloves.


These two points can be argued as the most important as isolating your body from points of infection and personal cleanliness are critically important.


----------



## robot zombie (Apr 1, 2020)

Gab said:


> Well, I live in Madrid (Spain).
> 
> The situation here is bad. Really bad. We have today more than 100,000 infected and our numbers and infected curve is aproaching fast to the Italy curve and cases. Hospitals, doctors and health service is close to collapse. In some regions it is already.
> 
> ...


I always liked that quote "Tomorrow, mother nature could sneeze us off of the face of the planet." At least sometimes you get warnings. You see a storm on the horizon and maybe it's "over there" right now, but you prepare for it to be "over here" because you don't know and it may be your only warning. If it hits, you count your blessings for having that sign. You were cut a break in that case. Take it for granted and nature takes it all back.

I think in these modern times people don't always see it that way. Humanity used to have natural reverence for these things. In our lives we are now removed from needing to much of the time. Add an extra layer by making the phenomenon a pandemic and the detachment is amplified. It's hard to concieve of something like this in the way we might a tsunami or an earthquake. Comparatively it's like watching grass grow. You tell yourself you can cut it tomorrow. Today it's hot and you have that appointment...

I've said it before. All bets are off with the human mind when it comes to anything beyond immediacy. We're not as good at looking beyond as we like to think. 90% of our time is spent reacting to the present. I'm betting a large part of all human suffering can be chalked up to that one facet.

If people wanna act like they ain't got time for it, they'll find out the hard way just how little they really have.

Your story really hammers that down, I think. Thank you for sharing.

To me that's the big lesson for everyone.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 1, 2020)

Drone said:


> So your logic is wearing no mask is better than wearing a mask? Ridiculous.


Apparently one of the dangers in wearing a mask is that it makes the wearer feel safer and more protected, even though there is little evidence that is the case and therefore some people are less careful, if you take a look at some of the news footage in the early days of the pandemic from China and Japan, you will see loads of people wearing cloth face masks but very few of them have any distance from other people whether those people have masks on themselves or not, when governments instigate social distancing measure they still include people wearing a mask for good reason.


----------



## Drone (Apr 1, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Apparently one of the dangers in wearing a mask is that it makes the wearer feel safer and more protected, even though there is little evidence that is the case and therefore some people are less careful, if you take a look at some of the news footage in the early days of the pandemic from China and Japan, you will see loads of people wearing cloth face masks but very few of them have any distance from other people whether those people have masks on themselves or not, when governments instigate social distancing measure they still include people wearing a mask for good reason.



They just suggest it for people who have no masks but for some reason who need to leave their home. If two layer cotton does provide some kind of protection why not use it, but yeah unlike you all I'm not Nobel laureate so what do I know.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 2, 2020)

Well, the Shelter in Place order by the Governor of Louisiana implemented a couple weeks ago is apparently not enough for some of our Parishes (Counties elsewhere in the country). 4 parishes in Southeast Louisiana have instituted night time curfews.









						Coronavirus reminder: Daily curfews in place for these southeast Louisiana communities
					

Curfews are going into effect this week for parishes in southeast Louisiana because of the COVID-19 health crisis.




					www.wdsu.com
				




I wouldn’t be surprised to see this mandatory curfew extend to other areas in the state.


----------



## Xzibit (Apr 2, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Well, the Shelter in Place order by the Governor of Louisiana implemented a couple weeks ago is apparently not enough for some of our Parishes (Counties elsewhere in the country). 4 parishes in Southeast Louisiana have instituted night time curfews.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That story about the NY nurse working at a hospital while infected



> A nurse who did not want to be named told CNN she worked at two New York City hospitals for a week before she was diagnosed with coronavirus.
> She said her diagnosis went undetected because hospitals have not been testing staff.
> "Two weeks ago, I was feeling back pain, a lot of back pain," the nurse told CNN. "And then one night had really bad chest pain."
> When she asked about staff testing, she said one of the emergency rooms refused to test staff members. She only got a test when she asked a friend who was on duty.
> "I said, 'Please just this one time. I want to make sure I don't have it. I don't want to spread anything,'" the nurse said. "And so she tested me."



Doubt shes the only one too


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 2, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> You cant see comma's? better go to specsavers


Um,    The request for a citation is what is your source to link to for that claim, since this is predominately a fact- based thread. There is another one in The Lounge for various country-bashing.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 2, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> same as S Korea



South Korea actually had some pretty stringent policies and did a lot of testing.  South Korea really put the hammer down and fast so I can mostly believe their data.


----------



## xman2007 (Apr 2, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Um,    The request for a citation is what is your source to link to for that claim, since this is predominately a fact- based thread. There is another one in The Lounge for various country-bashing.


But YT videos on home made masks that will save people are kosher?



moproblems99 said:


> South Korea actually had some pretty stringent policies and did a lot of testing.  South Korea really out the hammer down so I can mostly believe their data.


Testing alone is worth nothing, you have to implement social distancing from the outset both of which China and S Korea didnt do inistially but people are led to believe that china's peak tapered off in late Feb and they have had practically 0 deaths or new cases since? perlease


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 2, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> people are led to believe that china's peak tapered off in late Feb and they have had practically 0 deaths or new cases since? perlease



People are free to believe as they wish but those that want the truth will find it.  As said already, we try not to discuss what countries are or not lying (hint: all do one way or another) in this thread as there is one in the lounge that that is for.



xman2007 said:


> But YT videos on home made masks that will save people are kosher?



As for things like this, I see it as valid discussion on ways you can and can't protect yourself.  Busting (or proving) myths as you will.  Political things are best left for the lounge as they spiral quickly.  I know because I like to spiral frequently.


----------



## xman2007 (Apr 2, 2020)

Sorry people are getting riled up from my opinions in here, maybe I need to take it to OT but I will just quote this I have posted on daily mail so hopefully some can see I'm not just a troll:

My daughter was due on March 31 and we were called in on the 19th to be induced, it wasn't pleasant as most of the hospital was on lockdown because of the expected rush of coronavirus patients, I wasn't allowed off the ward at one point cause a suspected coronavirus patient got taken in, we didnt really want to be there but we had little choice, we have been home a week now and the little one is doing fine as best we can tell with no after support, have utmost respect for NHS nurses, doctors and healthcare workers/staff however

I've got a week old daughter who cant be seen and tested by health professionals because of the state of things right now, I have been on lockdown in a hospital in the last week and it wasnt a pleasant experience and I was worried I had covid 19, I have children who I am worrying about more than myself, so I'm sorry if my views come across a certain way


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 2, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> Sorry people are getting riled up from my opinions in here, maybe I need to take it to OT but I will just quote this I have posted on daily mail so hopefully some can see I'm not just a troll:
> 
> My daughter was due on March 31 and we were called in on the 19th to be induced, it wasn't pleasant as most of the hospital was on lockdown because of the expected rush of coronavirus patients, I wasn't allowed off the ward at one point cause a suspected coronavirus patient got taken in, we didnt really want to be there but we had little choice, we have been home a week now and the little one is doing fine as best we can tell with no after support, have utmost respect for NHS nurses, doctors and healthcare workers/staff however
> 
> I've got a week old daughter who cant be seen and tested by health professionals because of the state of things right now, I have been on lockdown in a hospital in the last week and it wasnt a pleasant experience and I was worried I had covid 19, I have children who I am worrying about more than myself, so I'm sorry if my views come across a certain way


I can sympathize with your agitation. I have a wife who has a reduced immune system because of a bad valve and several heart attacks.  So that I don’t pass any of this disease on to her accidentally I sent her to live with her daughter. Today I find out she has been having chest pains, and yet her doctor isn’t too worried yet. He did urge her to avoid the hospital at all costs and make sure its a true emergency before going there.  So yes, it’s scary and I understand your worry.


----------



## xman2007 (Apr 2, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I can sympathize with your agitation. I have a wife who has a reduced immune system because of a bad valve and several heart attacks.  So that I don’t pass any of this disease on to her accidentally I sent her to live with her daughter. Today I find out she has been having chest pains, and yet her doctor isn’t too worried yet. He did urge her to avoid the hospital at all costs and make sure its a true emergency before going there.  So yes, it’s scary and I understand your worry.


I dont mean to 1up you in any way but my son was born with a congenital heart defect also so I've as much to lose with covid 19 as anyone and the notion that I'm just being a troll or WUM is insulting


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 2, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> I've got a week old daughter who cant be seen and tested by health professionals because of the state of things right now, I have been on lockdown in a hospital in the last week and it wasnt a pleasant experience and I was worried I had covid 19, I have children who I am worrying about more than myself, so I'm sorry if my views come across a certain way



I'm sorry to hear that.  I have heard several stories of people that couldn't be there for the birth of their children (even our govener).  I'd have to think that would be about the worst thing for a father.


----------



## Ahhzz (Apr 2, 2020)

Guys, some of us have personal connections to the Virus, and people affected by it, but please keep the aggressive reactions and counter-reactions under control. Take personal beefs to PM, or even better, Let it Go, but keep it out of the thread.


----------



## Xzibit (Apr 2, 2020)

*NBCLosAngeles: Locomotive Engineer Derailed Train to Wreck Navy Hospital Ship Mercy Over Coronavirus Suspicions, Feds Say*









> Moreno allegedly told the officer, "You only get this chance once. The whole world is watching. I had to. People don't know what's going on here. Now they will," the complaint alleges.
> 
> Moreno stated that, "he did it out of the desire to 'wake people up,'" according to the affidavit. "Moreno stated that he thought that the U.S.N.S. Mercy was suspicious and did not believe 'the ship is what they say it's for.'"



You can see in this news report the distance


----------



## Regeneration (Apr 2, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> China has lied and covered up their true numbers which has claimed the lives of thousands if not tens and hundreds of thousands of other nations peoples across the globe, anyone who believes that they tapered off at 80k cases and 3k deaths is either an ignoramus or just plain uneducated, same as S Korea, if the numbers are true they have a vaccine they are keeping under wraps from the rest of the world because everywhere apart from China and S Korea are going through hell on earth and there looks like no end to it in sight.





lexluthermiester said:


> Citation please.



U.S. Intelligence: China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak








						China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
					

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.




					www.bloomberg.com
				






rtwjunkie said:


> I can sympathize with your agitation. I have a wife who has a reduced immune system because of a bad valve and several heart attacks.  So that I don’t pass any of this disease on to her accidentally I sent her to live with her daughter. Today I find out she has been having chest pains, and yet her doctor isn’t too worried yet. He did urge her to avoid the hospital at all costs and make sure its a true emergency before going there.  So yes, it’s scary and I understand your worry.



Chest pain can be caused by a muscle strain, slipped disc, dislocated shoulder, high blood pressure, lung stress from smoking, and for no reason because of previous heart attacks.



xman2007 said:


> My daughter was due on March 31 and we were called in on the 19th to be induced, it wasn't pleasant as most of the hospital was on lockdown because of the expected rush of coronavirus patients, I wasn't allowed off the ward at one point cause a suspected coronavirus patient got taken in, we didnt really want to be there but we had little choice, we have been home a week now and the little one is doing fine as best we can tell with no after support, have utmost respect for NHS nurses, doctors and healthcare workers/staff however
> 
> I've got a week old daughter who cant be seen and tested by health professionals because of the state of things right now, I have been on lockdown in a hospital in the last week and it wasnt a pleasant experience and I was worried I had covid 19, I have children who I am worrying about more than myself, so I'm sorry if my views come across a certain way



That sucks ass. You should make a call and ask for a home visit.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 2, 2020)

Thread heavily cleansed.

Attacking individual nations with supposition and, by definition, lack of facts, is way off-topic. That is definitely for the lounge.

Calling people names, inferring they are stupid, etc, will result in thread bans.

The reason I delete national attacks is because every country is using a separate system to count cases. None are actual virus numbers. Just because it's a personal feeling that country 'A' is lying about their numbers, doesn't make it a relevant post. Feelings, without firm evidence, are dangerous things. As far as numbers go, the UK is pretty slow with testing, therefore, our numbers are a gross underestimate. I don't see Blighty being criticised (I'd LQ or delete it anyway - we're not nation-bashing).

Also, to point out the irony: China uses full state surveillance of it's people. They used all their combined power to monitor the spread and with such overarching control, they could more easily contain those infected. Also, as far back as Jan, or early Feb, they were literally dragging people from their homes and putting them in vans. China did what no western power could: they removed the rights of the individual to protect the whole. It's the mantra of their governing culture (Party over People). As has been explained in this thread as well, they control 90%+ of N95 masks. They kept most of them. Add all that up and it's easier to understand how they got a handle on the virus.

Meanwhile, in the free world, we're still 'gathering' because it's our right. Well, some think that should happen to allow the virus to spread and for us to grow herd immunity (UK initial stance) and others think it's better to remain isolated. Problem is, both have merit. Herd immunity will creatre a natural solution, but it'll also cause a surge in deaths. Isolation will reduce the surge, but at what financial and mental cost?

Anyhoo, what a poo-storm to wake up to.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 2, 2020)

China was under reporting because they weren't counting asymptomatic people that tested positive (they said they're going to fix this in the coming week).  The rest of the world is under reporting because of inadequate testing for the virus.  In other words: everyone is underreporting right now.  Numbers are going to swell over the next month or so even if the severity of the outbreak lessens simply because of better data being collected/provided.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 2, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> So here is the count for those trucks sent to NY
> 
> *NY Post: FEMA sending 85 refrigerated trucks to New York City for COVID-19 bodies*
> 
> ...



Third world country, is what comes to mind when I read this. Holy shit. And when I read inmates are digging graves... wtf is this, the industrial revolution or a return to slavery days?! We have machinery for this, you know. I'm just gonna chalk that up to fake news... I hope I'm right...


----------



## Xzibit (Apr 2, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Third world country, is what comes to mind when I read this. Holy shit. And when I read inmates are digging graves... wtf is this, the industrial revolution or a return to slavery days?! We have machinery for this, you know. I'm just gonna chalk that up to fake news... I hope I'm right...



NY Gov already has them making sanitizer. Whats a few more holes in the ground.

*The Washington Post: Inmates are manufacturing hand sanitizer to help fight coronavirus. But will they be allowed to use it?*

There are being paid tho.

Sanitizer = 65c hr
Grave = $6 hr + Mask


----------



## Flanker (Apr 2, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> China was under reporting because they weren't counting asymptomatic people that tested positive (they said they're going to fix this in the coming week).


Aaah!  So that's why there is a new column for asymptomatic cases in Chinese news apps. It popped up a couple of days ago.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 2, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> NY Gov already has them making sanitizer. Whats a few more holes in the ground.
> 
> *The Washington Post: Inmates are manufacturing hand sanitizer to help fight coronavirus. But will they be allowed to use it?*
> 
> ...



Well at least the sanitizer isn't a guarantee for mental problems later down the line. Digging graves however... Not the best cocktail for people already past normal behaviour. Now imagine those returning to society.


----------



## Regeneration (Apr 2, 2020)

When you're locked down in a cell for a few years, anything else will look good to you. Outdoor community work is offered only to those with the best behavior.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 2, 2020)

Drone said:


> They just suggest it for people who have no masks but for some reason who need to leave their home. If two layer cotton does provide some kind of protection why not use it, *but yeah unlike you all I'm not Nobel laureate so what do I know.*



None of us are as far as I can tell, which is why we sometimes listen to those that are and those others that are qualified to talk about it, and most of them have determined that since air, condensation and therefore droplets can easily pass out of the side of the things and through the fibres in most of them that they do not in any way prevent infection, if the so called experts are proven to be wrong then I can only apologise on their behalf.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 2, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> Chest pain can be caused by a muscle strain, slipped disc, dislocated shoulder, high blood pressure, lung stress from smoking, and for no reason because of previous heart attacks.


As her husband, I'm very familiar with all of the things associated with conditions masking as chest pain or actual heart failure condition....been living it, and not going to get any more personal than that . Aside from that, it was only offered up as an insight to show that lots of people have major things going on in their lives, and that while anger and worry are understandable, t's not an excuse for poor behavior.


----------



## Regeneration (Apr 2, 2020)

I might be catching coronavirus this Sunday night. Got an MRI appointment in a public hospital.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 2, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> I might be catching coronavirus this Sunday night. Got an MRI appointment in a public hospital.



Meh, I wouldn't worry too much about that.  I had an MRI last week and been in several other docs this week.  Although our hospitals are keeping Covid patients in only 2 out of the 5 hospitals around here but we have less than 100 cases here in our county.  Known anyway.


----------



## Regeneration (Apr 2, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Meh, I wouldn't worry too much about that.  I had an MRI last week and been in several other docs this week.  Although our hospitals are keeping Covid patients in only 2 out of the 5 hospitals around here but we have less than 100 cases here in our county.  Known anyway.



There are COVID-19 patients in that hospital. I considered postponing the appointment, but it seems the spread is just getting worse.


----------



## HTC (Apr 2, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 9034 confirmed infected
- 209 fatalities
- 68 recovered
- 4958 waiting for test results
- 1042 hospitalized
- "over 240 people" in ICU, including 7 doctors and one nurse

Other info:

- 1124 health workers infected

Our parliament has approved renewing emergency state for another 15 days: it will be formally announced later today by our President. Dunno if there will be any changes from the prior 15 days of emergency state.


----------



## Rahnak (Apr 2, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> - 9034 confirmed infected
> - 209 fatalities
> ...



4958 waiting for test results and 1042 hospitalized.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 2, 2020)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1245429680095793153


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 2, 2020)

Today was an even worse day for COVID-19 here in Louisiana:

9,150 cases (6,424 yesterday)
310 deaths (273 yesterday)
1,639 hospitalized (1,498 yesterday)
507 on ventilators (490 yesterday)
51,086 tests have been conducted (45,750 yesterday)

Breaking these down for the 5 parishes that comprise the New Orleans Metro Area. 

4,395 cases (3,148 New Orleans)  -yesterday was 3,114, with 2,270 of those in New Orleans proper
215 Deaths (125 New Orleans)     -yesterday was 192, with 115 of those in New Orleans proper









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 2, 2020)

~2,700 new on ~5.5K tested...


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 2, 2020)

I’m not sure what it means. They are only testing people with serious symptoms, and any healthcare or first responder with any symptoms. To me it sounds like their doctors are pretty good at deciding someone is likely infected before referring for testing. At least that’s my positive take on it.

Governor Edwards says a testing logjam has broken through the last few days, so it looks worse than it is.  He points to hospitalization and death rates being better indicators, with hospitalization "only" up 10% each of the last 2 days.









						Louisiana sees 42% increase in coronavirus cases; John Bel Edwards points to testing 'logjam'
					

Louisiana confirmed a massive number of new coronavirus cases Thursday – 2,726, bringing the total statewide above 9,100 – as officials discovered a surge of new cases from previous days




					www.theadvocate.com


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 2, 2020)

Me either. that percentage will vary dramatically depending as we talked about previously. I was simply pointing out the trend of increasing cases while the amount of tests there is stable(ish - over the last couple of days we discussed this).

EIDT: Yep... log jam.... I posted yesterady how one company out of NJ was back logged 160,000 tests a week ago... I assume that is happening in most testing facilities.


----------



## Regeneration (Apr 2, 2020)

Did you see this?










Stay the F at home by Samuel L. Jackson


----------



## HTC (Apr 2, 2020)

Rahnak said:


> 4958 waiting for test results and 1042 hospitalized.


Thanks: edited your info in my post.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 2, 2020)

Just a reminder (because I'm getting quite a few) that this thread was opened to discuss maps for tracking COVID-19. In that, we can also digress to numbers, statistics and other such related info. While a lot of posts are on topic, the thread is veering toward a trend of being off-topic. I want to place this here, so I can refer you back to it. If an LQ is put on a post, it doesn't mean your post was crap. It just might mean it wasn't strictly on-topic, as the forum guidelines request you to be. So, from now on in (after this note) I'll pretty much LQ anything that isnt a stat, map or discussion on the actual spread and it's possible projections. As had been said many times, there is a lounge thread for general COVID-19 chat and I've been asked to keep this one on track.

I thank you in advance for your cooperation.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 2, 2020)

And that's a million registered cases...








						COVID Live Update: 170,691,288 Cases and 3,550,115 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 2, 2020)

Update from Denmark. We now have 3388 infected people. 153 are in critical need of respirator while 123 people has sadly lost there life to COVID-19 and 1089 are declared recovered. So there are 2174 active cases.

And a little good news, critical cases has now going down for two days now and it seems that government has managed to get virus under control. Not totally in control, but so much that if this rate keeps going on or lower. Government will try to slowly reduce restrictions of the lock down after Easter. So I cross my fingers this can be true. But it will still take weeks if not months before the country will be fully locked up.

And as a last thing, OMG the unemployment numbers from USA are skyrocketing


----------



## LFaWolf (Apr 2, 2020)

Tomgang said:


> Update from Denmark. We now have 3388 infected people. 153 are in critical need of respirator while 123 people has sadly lost there life to COVID-19 and 1089 are declared recovered. So there are 2174 active cases.
> 
> And a little good news, critical cases has now going down for two days now and it seems that government has managed to get virus under control. Not totally in control, but so much that if this rate keeps going on or lower. Government will try to slowly reduce restrictions of the lock down after Easter. So I cross my fingers this can be true. But it will still take weeks if not months before the country will be fully locked up.
> 
> And as a last thing, OMG the unemployment numbers from USA are skyrocketing



Do you guys have nationwide shelter-in-place or lock down? Any law enforcement patrolling or telling people to stay home? Oh and if you do when did it start?


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 2, 2020)

LFaWolf said:


> Do you guys have nationwide shelter-in-place or lock down? Any law enforcement patrolling or telling people to stay home? Oh and if you do when did it start?



We are in a half lock down. Meaning no more than max 10 people together is alowed in and out side. But we are freely to move outside as long we all keep distance to one another and not gadering in more than 10 people. But all none important stores and enjoyment are all closed down like fitness and restaurants.

There are police patrol, but only to make sure people don't brake the rules out and inside. They are not there to keep us inside under force. Government do recommend all to stay home and most of the danish people are freely doing so, hence why we can do away with a half lock down. There are off cause all ways a few law breakers. Under covid-19 tickets has been raised so that it is very expensive to brake the rules like not keeping distance or gathering more than 10 people.

Lock down whas started on March 11th. Besides government whas a bit to slow to react before Making lock down and close borders. I will say danish government has been doing a great job. They have very fast put out help package for companies and help to people like myself losing jobs by prolonging we can get money from government while with out a job and frankly been very hornest about the situation both about the good and bad things.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 2, 2020)

Some hopefully positive news.








						Trial drug may block early stages of COVID-19, study in human cells shows
					

A drug already tested against lung disease could potentially inhibit COVID-19 by reducing the




					news.cision.com


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 2, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Some hopefully positive news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
It's news like this we all need. It's just to sad a vaccine is not ready fore end of 2020 or beginning of 2021.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 2, 2020)

LFaWolf said:


> Do you guys have nationwide shelter-in-place or lock down? Any law enforcement patrolling or telling people to stay home? Oh and if you do when did it start?


UK is pretty much in full lockdown and has been for 10 days, for 7 days before that we were in part lockdown but too many were ignoring it at that point because it was advisory, now the full lockdown is law so Police are patrolling on foot and by car, nothing savage but they do stop people and if they feel that they are breaking the lockdown they tell them to go home, if they don't then it can start with a fine.  It now feels as though in general it is working well but some people considered essential are still going to work but they have to have a letter from their employer to show Police if stopped.

UK update for today ………. 33,718 positive cases 2,921 fatalities


----------



## Devon68 (Apr 2, 2020)

> Do you guys have nationwide shelter-in-place or lock down? Any law enforcement patrolling or telling people to stay home? Oh and if you do when did it start?


We are not in total lockdown but a 24 hour curfew was mentioned if things dont improve. We cant go outside on weekdays from 5 in the afternoon till 5 in the morning, and on weekends starting from Saturday 1PM till Monday 4AM. If they find someone outside the fine is 50.000 rsd so about 425 euro, but at least from what i've heard they warn you the first time, and if they catch you outside for the second or third time you get fined.
But the last 4 days we went from 785 -> 900 -> 1060 -> 1171 so the 24 hour curfew is only a matter of time. As for the dead we have 31 so far.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 2, 2020)

Impact of COVID-19 and American transit:








						The social distancing of America
					

Smartphone data shows changing habits as coronavirus spreads.




					graphics.reuters.com


----------



## Caring1 (Apr 2, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> There are COVID-19 patients in that hospital. I considered postponing the appointment, but it seems the spread is just getting worse.


The song One way or another, by Blondie springs to mind thinking of the virus.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 2, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Impact of COVID-19 and American transit:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That’s extremely cool! I can see its accurate. We have always had 30,000 vehicles driving accross Lake Pontchartrain every day to work in New Orleans.  Since the pandemic started, there have been about 5,000 a day. That corresponds to 75% fewer cellphones just in one little corner.


----------



## Caring1 (Apr 2, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Impact of COVID-19 and American transit:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That could also be an indicator of people not wanting to be tracked and leaving their phone at home.


----------



## Xzibit (Apr 3, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> That could also be an indicator of people not wanting to be tracked and leaving their phone at home.



Well looks like everyone in California Opt-out of their collection process.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 3, 2020)

They needed 500 per county to show.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 3, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1245429680095793153



Jesus, a 6 week old newborn...Reading the governor's tweets got me a bit choked up. My sympathies to that family. And then all the conspiracy theory idiots got me pissed. I won't say anymore than that.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 3, 2020)

Florida:

9008 cases
144 deaths

Not exactly sure how up-to-date the numbers are as they come from the state health dept.

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/



Gmr_Chick said:


> Jesus, a 6 week old newborn...Reading the governor's tweets got me a bit choked up. My sympathies to that family. And then all the conspiracy theory idiots got me pissed. I won't say anymore than that.



Honestly, I am not surprised as I don't believe they have much of an immune system.  Heart goes out to the parents and also wishing a full recovery from the virus.  I am presuming they have it as well.



FordGT90Concept said:


> Impact of COVID-19 and American transit:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Very cool!


----------



## sepheronx (Apr 3, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Jesus, a 6 week old newborn...Reading the governor's tweets got me a bit choked up. My sympathies to that family. And then all the conspiracy theory idiots got me pissed. I won't say anymore than that.



Yes, a child that will never get the chances we got to a life. It is heartbreaking.

I go back to work tonight. I'm glad I do. But I still have to fight for answers from the company I work for as they gave a different answer to my friend who is now in self quarantine and company is covering him (even though he wasn't tested like myself) yet they forced me to either not get paid at all or use my vacation time.

So I'm gonna fight them. I didn't want to go into quarantine. I wanted to go back to work but they demanded I stay home for 10 days.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 3, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Some hopefully positive news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is progress, but treatments based on human antibodies would be more effective.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 3, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> WHO disagrees with that. You oughta check your sources.



WHO disagrees due to supply issues.  They absolutely do not care if you strap a bandanna to their face and even have casually admitted it's "better than nothing."


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 3, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> WHO disagrees due to supply issues.  They absolutely do not care if you strap a bandanna to their face and even have casually admitted it's "better than nothing."


What's actually better than anything is to stay away from everybody apart from those in you're own household………………… if you can, and if you can't but you are able to practice social distancing and adopt stringent hygiene measures there is nothing to worry about.

It appears the UK is rapidly accelerating towards it's peak which is scary in itself although some are saying the quicker we get there the quicker we can win the battle, some sense in that but seeing bigger and bigger fatality rates each day is kind of scary.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 3, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> This is progress, but treatments based on human antibodies would be more effective.


It's at least an intermediate help, if it really works. Might prevent people from dying from the wuhan virus.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 3, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> WHO disagrees due to supply issues.  They absolutely do not care if you strap a bandanna to their face and even have casually admitted it's "better than nothing."



Its better than nothing because people's mood is a direct threat to stability, and its well known we view the mask as 'helpful'. Psychology for those who feel they need it. Now you can see what that leads to... Things get taken out of context.

Don't fool yourself. The supply issues are just part of the reality. The other part is that all scientific evidence regarding _self made_ masks does not provide credibility to wearing one, to prevent getting this virus. There is no evidence of that, and its not coming either with all the current measures. The evidence we do see is that social distancing works. It worked in Wuhan, it works over here. Masks are a non-factor in the whole episode, except for people who are forced to get into contact with others, like medical personnel. Curves get flattened with or without masses wearing masks.

China is all about wearing masks, they have the largest supply in the world. And yet, Corona is popping right back up over there the moment they stopped quarantining and opened borders. Odd  And here we speak of using pieces of cloth... to achieve what? Even the false sense of safety is a bigger threat than not wearing one.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 3, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> This is progress, but treatments based on human antibodies would be more effective.


Happy now?








						Phase 2 of coronavirus vaccine human trials may begin in spring, Moderna chairman says
					

"We'll enter hopefully phase 2 trials, we expect that to happen in the spring, perhaps early summer," Moderna Chairman Noubar Afeyan told CNBC.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## biffzinker (Apr 3, 2020)

Google has a website up that shows the change in people's travel, staying at home, and less out about.









						COVID-19 Community Mobility Report
					

See how your community is moving around differently due to COVID-19



					www.google.com


----------



## HTC (Apr 3, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 9886 confirmed infected
- 246 fatalities
- 68 recovered
- 5392 waiting for test results
- 1058 hospitalized --- had the wrong number: corrected, as of 04:15 GMT 04-04-2020
- 245 in ICU, including @ least 7 doctors and one nurse

- British Nationals gave a 360,000€ donation to Algarve Region to help fight COVID-19 --- *BIG THANK YOU*
- over 100 companies in Portugal are now making various protective gear
- Government *considering* locking down maximum prices of goods --- should have done this from day #1 of emergency state, IMO

On a personal note, my work place gave me a paper with the authorization, should i be stopped by police on / off my way to / from work: i'll actually need it because i go to work on my bike (all year, regardless of the weather, for over 15 years) and they'll likely think i'm NOT obeying #StayAtHome just because i'm on a bike.


----------



## BaRRoS (Apr 3, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> - dunno number of those waiting for test results



5,392 waiting test results.
Check our DGS covid19 site: https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/


----------



## HTC (Apr 3, 2020)

BaRRoS said:


> 5,392 waiting test results.
> Check our DGS covid19 site: https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/


Edited the post with your info.

Was unaware of that site: thanks dude!


----------



## Frick (Apr 3, 2020)

So to contribute to the thread: Still no major bans in sweden, and in my town the old folks who are told to stay home are shopping and doing lunches with each others as normal. No talk of lockdown, but we're very discouraged to travel. It's a pretty interesting difference: Other nations have cops fining people for breaking curfew, Sweden basically asks their citizens to be sensible for the sake of others. Have said it before, but time will tell which way was the way to go. There is talk about how the extreme quarantine of other nations might make them vulnurable to a second or third wave of the virus. If a nation manage to eliminate it, what happens in the next wave? Will the shut down the nation again? In any case it's an interesting - and bleak - situation.


----------



## biffzinker (Apr 3, 2020)

HTC said:


> On a personal note, my work place gave me a paper with the authorization, should i be stopped by police on / off my way to / from work: i'll actually need it because i go to work on my bike (all year, regardless of the weather, for over 15 years) and they'll likely think i'm NOT obeying #StayAtHome just because i'm on a bike.


I got handed similar paperwork on last Friday from the company I work for.

I dread going to work more now than I did before.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 3, 2020)

Frick said:


> So to contribute to the thread: Still no major bans in sweden, and in my town the old folks who are told to stay home are shopping and doing lunches with each others as normal. No talk of lockdown, but we're very discouraged to travel. It's a pretty interesting difference: Other nations have cops fining people for breaking curfew, Sweden basically asks their citizens to be sensible for the sake of others. Have said it before, but time will tell which way was the way to go. There is talk about how the extreme quarantine of other nations might make them vulnurable to a second or third wave of the virus. If a nation manage to eliminate it, what happens in the next wave? Will the shut down the nation again? In any case it's an interesting - and bleak - situation.


It's because it's not legally possible to implement a lockdown in Sweden. Think what you want of that, but apparently it's been so long since there was a real crisis in Sweden, that we have the right to roam freely according to the constitution. There are discussions about limiting travel in certain parts of the country, but it's not possible to do what some other countries have done, without major changes to the constitution.








						Därför kan Sverige inte utfärda utegångsförbud
					

Många länder har begränsat sina medborgares rörelsefrihet med anledning av det nya coronaviruset. Men det finns inte stöd i svensk lag att helt och hållet gå i andra länders fotspår.




					www.svt.se
				



What bugs me is that some people seem to he oblivious about the virus, as they chitchat in the supermarket and stand/walk really close to you, even if you try to avoid them and then they look offended when you step away


----------



## HTC (Apr 3, 2020)

Frick said:


> So to contribute to the thread: Still no major bans in sweden, and in my town the old folks who are told to stay home are shopping and doing lunches with each others as normal. No talk of lockdown, but we're very discouraged to travel. It's a pretty interesting difference: Other nations have cops fining people for breaking curfew, Sweden basically asks their citizens to be sensible for the sake of others. Have said it before, but time will tell which way was the way to go. *There is talk about how the extreme quarantine of other nations might make them vulnurable to a second or third wave of the virus.* If a nation manage to eliminate it, what happens in the next wave? Will the shut down the nation again? In any case it's an interesting - and bleak - situation.


Should there be a 2nd wave, if they lockdown Immediately without waiting, unlike what pretty much ALL countries did in "the 1st wave", they should have it contained within 3 to 4 weeks so the damage SHOULD be much smaller.

The problem with the "wait and see approach before deciding" is that, by the time they do decide, the damage is already done and they're all racing behind attempting to catch up but, as we all know, this bloody virus works with exponential progression so it will take A LOT LONGER to catch up: with this approach, the bigger "the wait" the longer the period to catch up.

Still, once this 1st wave is over, people should resume "normalcy" (if that ever happens again after COVID-19) BUT they should STILL adopt precautionary measures for @ least 6 months, in an attempt to minimize any and all subsequent waves of this virus, should they happen: that way, the spread should be much less pronounced and thus much easier to tackle.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 3, 2020)

Louisiana's numbers for April 3, 2020:

10,297 cases (9,150 yesterday)
370 deaths (310 yesterday) *~20% increase (19.3 to be precise)*
1,707 hospitalized (1,639 yesterday)
535 on ventilators (507 yesterday)
54,645 tests have been conducted (51,086 yesterday)

Breaking these down for the 5 parishes that comprise the New Orleans Metro Area. 

6,667 cases (3,476 actually in New Orleans)  -yesterday was 4,935, with 3,148 of those in New Orleans proper
254 Deaths (148 actually in New Orleans)     -yesterday was 215, with 125 of those in New Orleans proper









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## Frick (Apr 3, 2020)

HTC said:


> Should there be a 2nd wave, if they lockdown Immediately without waiting, unlike what pretty much ALL countries did in "the 1st wave", they should have it contained within 3 to 4 weeks so the damage SHOULD be much smaller.
> 
> The problem with the "wait and see approach before deciding" is that, by the time they do decide, the damage is already done and they're all racing behind attempting to catch up but, as we all know, this bloody virus works with exponential progression so it will take A LOT LONGER to catch up: with this approach, the bigger "the wait" the longer the period to catch up.
> 
> Still, once this 1st wave is over, people should resume "normalcy" (if that ever happens again after COVID-19) BUT they should STILL adopt precautionary measures for @ least 6 months, in an attempt to minimize any and all subsequent waves of this virus, should they happen: that way, the spread should be much less pronounced and thus much easier to tackle.



The problem is the economy there. Even if it's "just" a month the economic repercussions will be absolutely gigantic, and that in turn will directly affect peoples health and lives. Add the cost of this pandemic and it's time to loot the churches.


----------



## HTC (Apr 3, 2020)

Frick said:


> The problem is the economy there. Even if it's "just" a month the economic repercussions will be absolutely gigantic, and that in turn will directly affect peoples health and lives. Add the cost of this pandemic and it's time to loot the churches.


True but people will be "behaving" much better in the 2nd wave because they have the experience of the 1st wave so they know the cost of NOT following the rules: the experience "gained" with the 1st wave will shorten the length of the 2nd and, though the cost will still be HUGE, it will be far FAR less than that of the 1st wave.


----------



## Frick (Apr 3, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> What bugs me is that some people seem to he oblivious about the virus, as they chitchat in the supermarket and stand/walk really close to you, even if you try to avoid them and then they look offended when you step away



Last friday I passed the bus hub (in metropolitan Piteå) by foot and a coughing person stepped of a long distance bus and ran and hugged a coughing elderly relative. ICA (grocery store for you non swedes) was filled with older folk jostling for the pasta (or whatever they're into these days) joking to one another about daring to go outside. It's pretty surreal when compared to the shots of abandoned *everything* elsewhere.

Also "funny" is that some older people have those one time gloves on them while shopping, and then they lick their fingers as they normally would whilst folding through their wallets for the right card or the cash.

The upside is that for the first time in my life I have seen seemingly properly cleaned keypads on the cardreaders. The grime around the buttons have always annoyed me, for as long as I can remember.



HTC said:


> True but people will be "behaving" much better in the 2nd wave because they have the experience of the 1st wave so they know the cost of NOT following the rules: the experience "gained" with the 1st wave will shorten the length of the 2nd and, though the cost will still be HUGE, it will be far FAR less than that of the 1st wave.



Maybe. People suck at learning though.


----------



## R0H1T (Apr 3, 2020)

HTC said:


> Still, *once this 1st wave is over*, people should resume "normalcy" (if that ever happens again after COVID-19) *BUT they should STILL adopt precautionary measures for @ least 6 months*, in an attempt to minimize any and all subsequent waves of this virus, should they happen: that way, the spread should be much less pronounced and thus much easier to tackle.


No one really knows how long the "waves" will last, with "flattening the curve" the impact may lessen though the duration will be longer or much much longer!

Let's just say it out loud ~ people are f***in stupid & selfish especially the ones who're either infected or likely to get infected but not necessarily die, which means  virtually anyone who can transmit the disease! Total lock-down, on & off is *IMO* the only way we'll minimize the fatalities & depending on the region we may loosen some of the restrictions. Though without a cure or vaccine I see this being the new normal for at least 6-12 months!


----------



## HTC (Apr 3, 2020)

Frick said:


> Maybe. People suck at learning though.


I guarantee you they WILL learn from the 1st wave: the cost will be far too big not to.



R0H1T said:


> No one really knows how long the "waves" will last, with flattening the curve the impact may lessen though the duration will be longer or much much longer!
> 
> Let's just say it out loud ~ people are f***in stupid & selfish especially the ones who're either infected or likely to get infected but not necessarily die, which means  virtually anyone who can transmit the disease! *Total lock-down, on & off is IMO the only way we'll minimize the fatalities* & depending on the region we may loosen some of the restrictions. Though without a cure or vaccine I see this being the new normal for at least 6-12 months!


Agreed: if done RIGHT AWAY: the damage MAY be small, by comparison.

Forgot to mention in my Portugal's update post: a pregnant lady found out she was infected (as well as her husband) 2 days before giving birth: the baby's 1st test came back negative.


----------



## heky (Apr 3, 2020)

HTC said:


> Forgot to mention in my Portugal's update post: a pregnant lady found out she was infected (as well as her husband) 2 days before giving birth: the baby's 1st test came back negative.


Of course, because most viruses can not get through the barrier in the placenta.(or something like that, have seen a documentary about human evolution and it was explained there.)

Also, i do not want to make this pandemic irrelevant, but i think it is blown way out if proportion, intentionally! If you look at the mortality rate and the people it affects it looks harmless compared to even something like the common seasonal flu. Just for comparison, the common flu killed over 1.000.000 people this year globally, Covid19 killed 60.000. Let that number sink in. And now think about what it did to the global economy.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 3, 2020)

heky said:


> the common flu killed over 1.000.000 people this year globally, Covid19 killed 60.000. Let that number sink in. And now think about what it did to the global economy.


Now come back at the end of a year's time and we'll discuss comparisons of flu deaths versus COVID-19 deaths.  

Also, many more people are hospitalized for a longer period with COVID-19, depriving hospitals of the ability to deal with all the other ailments and emergencies that normally happen.  Here in the U.S., our health system operates at about 70-80%, leading to a just-in-time approach.  It doesn't take much for hospitals to reach their limit for treatment.


----------



## Rahnak (Apr 3, 2020)

heky said:


> Also, i do not want to make this pandemic irrelevant, but i think it is blown way out if proportion, intentionally! If you look at the mortality rate and the people it affects it looks harmless compared to even something like the common seasonal flu. Just for comparison, the common flu killed over 1.000.000 people this year globally, Covid19 killed 60.000. Let that number sink in. And now think about what it did to the global economy.



No, you just haven't been paying enough attention. If you let this run unchecked, you'd be looking at a lot more than 1M deaths (the US alone projected between 1.5 and 2.2M) not to the mention the total collapse of hospitals everywhere.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 3, 2020)

heky said:


> Of course, because most viruses can not get through the barrier in the placenta.(or something like that, have seen a documentary about human evolution and it was explained there.)
> 
> Also, i do not want to make this pandemic irrelevant, but i think it is blown way out if proportion, intentionally! If you look at the mortality rate and the people it affects it looks harmless compared to even something like the common seasonal flu. Just for comparison, the common flu killed over 1.000.000 people this year globally, Covid19 killed 60.000. Let that number sink in. And now think about what it did to the global economy.



This is from the WHO stats:



> The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths








						Influenza: Practice Essentials, Background, Pathophysiology
					

Influenza, one of the most common infectious diseases, is a highly contagious airborne disease that occurs in seasonal epidemics and manifests as an acute febrile illness with variable degrees of systemic symptoms, ranging from mild fatigue to respiratory failure and death. Influenza causes...



					www.medscape.com
				




Where's your million figure from?


----------



## AsRock (Apr 3, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> This is from the WHO stats:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



HAHA, you trust the who lmao.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 3, 2020)

Florida was at about 9600 cases this morning.  Will be well into 10k tomorrow.



HTC said:


> Should there be a 2nd wave, if they lockdown Immediately without waiting, unlike what pretty much ALL countries did in "the 1st wave", they should have it contained within 3 to 4 weeks so the damage SHOULD be much smaller.



Should there be a second wave, or third, people better buckle up and pray.



			
				AsRock said:
			
		

> HAHA, you trust the who lmao.



No offense but it is better than some npc off TPU.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 3, 2020)

Now this is seriously worrying...


			Coronavirus may spread through normal breathing: US scientists


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 3, 2020)

Hence the masks.  CDC was right, WHO was wrong.


----------



## Xzibit (Apr 3, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Now this is seriously worrying...
> 
> 
> Coronavirus may spread through normal breathing: US scientists



As long as you don't mist up the place.



> This triggered a debate even as critics said the findings were overblown because the team behind *the study used a medical device called a nebulizer to deliberately create a viral mist and argued this would not occur naturally*.



I find the Chinese one more interesting



> The Chinese paper on the other hand *raised concerns that personal protective gear used by health care workers could itself be a source of airborne virus*.
> The team studied hospitals in Wuhan and found that there were *two major areas where the virus was aerosolized: the bathrooms of patients, and rooms where medical staff removed their protective gear*.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Apr 4, 2020)

Thought it maybe worth while placing this here:









						Anti-parasitic drug kills COVID-19 in lab
					

An anti-parasitic drug available throughout the world has been found to kill COVID-19 in the lab within 48 hours.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 4, 2020)

Isn't Ivermectin an anti-parasitic?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 4, 2020)

Outback Bronze said:


> Thought it maybe worth while placing this here:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Read up on this already. Seems to have great potential without any side effects. Needs more study though. However, because it's already FDA approved, it could get a fast track for use against COVID19 should testing continue to show positive results in combating the virus.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

> A Monash University-led study has shown a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop the *SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture*.


It's way too early to get excited.  Frankly, I'm surprised they'd even publish something so early in testing.


----------



## Caring1 (Apr 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> It's way too early to get excited.  Frankly, I'm surprised they'd even publish something so early in testing.


Scientific E-peen.

"The team studied hospitals in Wuhan and found that there were *two major areas where the virus was aerosolized: the bathrooms of patients, and rooms where medical staff removed their protective gear*. "

Disinfectant showers before disrobing would negate that.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> It's way too early to get excited.  Frankly, I'm surprised they'd even publish something so early in testing.


Why? Positive results are positive results.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

Because odds are extremely in favor of it being ineffectual in living, breathing bodies.  I'm not going to go into details because it's off topic.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> A living body is a very, very different environment from a cell culture.


True, but we're talking about a known and already approved medication for other virus infections.


FordGT90Concept said:


> I'm not going to go into details because it's off topic.


Good point..


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> True, but we're talking about a known and already approved medication for other virus infections.


Parasites aren't viruses.  Parasites are _organisms_ living inside of bigger _organisms_.  Viruses are "extremely complex _molecules_."


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Parasites aren't viruses.  Parasites are _organisms_ living inside of bigger _organisms_.  Viruses are "extremely complex _molecules_."





> Ivermectin is an FDA-approved anti-parasitic drug also shown to be effective in vitro against viruses including HIV, dengue and influenza.











						Ivermectin - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

That quote is from the terribly sourced News.com.au website.

Only relevant quote on Wikipedia:


> Ivermectin is also being studied as a potential antiviral agent against the chikungunya and yellow fever.[72]


72. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0166354215300516
That paper was published 2016 and the full paper isn't available so can't even see what they're talking about other than testing effectiveness against "*chikungunya and other alphaviruses*."  Coronaviruses aren't of the alphavirus genus.

Coronaviruses are from the order Nidovirales (Latin for "nest").
Alphaviruses haven't been given an order.


This is the brand name for Ivermectin in the USA:








						Stromectol (Ivermectin): Uses, Dosage, Side Effects, Interactions, Warning
					

Stromectol (Ivermectin) may treat, side effects, dosage, drug interactions, warnings, patient labeling, reviews, and related medications including drug comparison and health resources.




					www.rxlist.com
				



They list all the manufacturer notices required by the FDA.  Let's see if there's anything in here about viruses...

1 of 1...and it's ad about coronavirus.  FDA did not approve that drug for antiviral uses.

There are 9 references on the page for being an anti-parasitic drug.



This is Chloroquine all over again.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 4, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its better than nothing because people's mood is a direct threat to stability, and its well known we view the mask as 'helpful'.



Not how they phrased it at all.



Tatty_One said:


> What's actually better than anything is to stay away from everybody apart from those in you're own household



Well, yeah, obviously.


----------



## HTC (Apr 4, 2020)

heky said:


> Of course, because most viruses can not get through the barrier in the placenta.(or something like that, have seen a documentary about human evolution and it was explained there.)
> 
> Also, i do not want to make this pandemic irrelevant, but i think it is blown way out if proportion, intentionally! *If you look at the mortality rate and the people it affects it looks harmless compared to even something like the common seasonal flu.* *Just for comparison, the common flu killed over 1.000.000 people this year globally, Covid19 killed 60.000.* Let that number sink in. And now think about what it did to the global economy.


Try and find out how many people the flu sent to the hospital, *and for how long*, VS how many COVID-19 did, in the same time frame: that's the KEY difference. Also, there's medicine that works for the flu but, so far, nothing that works for COVID-19.

Unlike the flu, this virus has the SERIOUS potential to collapse the nation's health services, if left unchecked, and that's what governments are so desperately trying to avoid.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

Speaking from experience: flu sends people to ER but they dismiss them right away unless (rarely) they developed pneumonia or some other complications (e.g. need IV fluids because of vomiting).

COVID-19 is the same but the incidents of pneumonia is much, much, much higher which may require hospitalization.

I think the better way to think of it is in terms of average hours spent by healthcare professionals on specific cases.  Flu is really low where COVID-19 is really high.  People with IV only need interaction when going to bathroom (because of all the machines and tubes) or when the bag needs changing.  People that are on ventilators need constant observation and adjustment.  If the machine fails for too long or the bodies oxygen needs change, the window to address it before irreparable damage is done is very short (minutes).


As we've already seen, contagious pneumonia (what COVID-19 effectively is) is about the most effective way to overwhelm healthcare systems.  Treatment isn't particularly complicated but the duration of stay (days, even weeks) and the specific needs (oxygen, ventilators) of the patient are extremely draining.


----------



## Flanker (Apr 4, 2020)

Update on New Zealand: Confirmed + Probable. 10 people are hospitalized.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 4, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Now this is seriously worrying...
> 
> 
> Coronavirus may spread through normal breathing: US scientists


This was discussed on a breakfast programme in the UK this morning, when I first heard the news I thought that maybe my personal stance on the effectiveness of a face mask might change, then the programme had a professor of virology on, I think he is from Switzerland and recognised as one of the world's leading experts, he simply said _"how does a non medical facemask stop droplets entering the eyes?"  _It left me kind of cold as he said it's as likely to enter the eyes as anywhere else if there is contamination in a persons immediate area, so it didn't change my mind in the end.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

I doubt coronaviruses can even enter the blood through the eyes.  Eyes tend to be an out-only thing.

Seems like it enters the blood through the lungs.  Never heard of it entering any other way.  Even with touch, it's people moving the virus from surfaces, to their face, which gets inhaled.

China was particularly concerned about changing rooms and bathrooms because all of the movement of cloths would make the virus airborne again.  The virus apparently prefers dry environments which is why there is the theory that the humidity of summer will slow it down.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I doubt coronaviruses can even enter the blood through the eyes.  Eyes tend to be an out-only thing.
> 
> Seems like it enters the blood through the lungs.  Never heard of it entering any other way.  Even with touch, it's people moving the virus from surfaces, to their face, which gets inhaled.


It can enter through eyes, either directly or by hands that have been contaminated from contact with surfaces.









						Eye Care During COVID-19: Masks, Vaccines and Procedures
					

Even if you are vaccinated against COVID-19, you will need to wear a mask to medical appointments during the coronavirus pandemic. Rest assured that ophthalmologists, like all medical professionals, w




					www.aao.org
				




Edit:  It was determined in China that predominantly front line medical staff not wearing masks that had eye protection were mainly the only ones contracting the virus whilst treating patients once they realised what they were dealing with.  There is also some belief that the virus can enter through cuts/abrasions in the skin but on that one there appears less evidence.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

Consider the source: eye doctor association.

CDC only makes one reference to "eyes" and that's in relation to touching your eyes with germ contaminated fingers (part of their generic public safety routine):








						COVID-19 and Your Health
					

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.




					www.cdc.gov
				



If people are getting COVID-19 through their eyes, it's extremely rare/poorly documented...


Let me throw the same source back at you (updated April 3):








						Important coronavirus updates for ophthalmologists
					

The Academy is sharing important ophthalmology-specific information related to the novel coronavirus, referred to as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The highly contagious




					www.aao.org
				





> In a larger study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, researchers documented "conjunctival congestion" in 9 of 1,099 patients (0.8%) hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 30 hospitals across China. None of the patients were documented to have seen ophthalmologists, and tears were not sampled.


It's not even known if the two things are related because no one bothered to check.  The thing I wanted to point out is that even if there is a connection, it's in less than 1% of patients (uncommon).  That's repeated in much smaller studies:


> Two preprint studies posted on MedRxiv also suggest a relatively low likelihood of infectious virus in tears of COVID-19 patients. In a study by Zhang et al. of 72 confirmed COVID-19 patients at Tongji Medical College, 2 patients had conjunctivitis. One of the 2 with conjunctivitis and none of the other 70 patients had SARS-CoV-2 RNA in their tears. In a paper by Zhou et al. of 63 confirmed COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, only 1 had conjunctivitis; that patient had a negative conjunctival swab for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. One other patient’s conjunctival swab was positive and 2 were “probable."


Conclusion in part:


> Unless or until the CNN report is confirmed, existing data suggest that conjunctivitis is an uncommon event as it relates to COVID-19. However, because conjunctivitis is a common condition overall, and patients with conjunctivitis frequently present to eye clinics or emergency departments, it may happen that ophthalmologists are the first providers to evaluate patients possibly infected with COVID-19. Based on the studies above, it is possible--but not proven--that a patient with COVID-19 associated conjunctivitis could have infectious virus in their ocular secretions.


So even AAO is backpedaling on their earlier assertions.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 4, 2020)

The last few virus free places in earth 








						Where will be the last place to catch Covid-19? - BBC News
					

Some places are yet to record a case - but what will they do if and when it arrives?




					www.bbc.com


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

Spain...may have flattened it:








						Spain to extend state of emergency to April 26 as rise in infections slows
					

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Saturday he would ask parliament to extend lockdown measures by 15 days until April 26, as the rate of new coronavirus infections and deaths slowed again in one of the world's worst-hit countries.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 4, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> Not how they phrased it at all.
> 
> 
> 
> Well, yeah, obviously.



Of course they dont phrase it that way. A doctor will also not tell you you are using a placebo.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 4, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> A doctor will also not tell you you are using a placebo.



You do realize if you are in a study in which a placebo must be issued, you are informed of that possibility, right?



Vayra86 said:


> Of course they dont phrase it that way. A doctor will also not tell you you are using a placebo.



...this isn't a doubleblind...

nevermind.



FordGT90Concept said:


> I doubt coronaviruses can even enter the blood through the eyes. Eyes tend to be an out-only thing.



It's been said by many individuals and health experts that eyes are an entrance method for several viral strains, and thus can't be ruled out, so that would be at odds with your statment.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 4, 2020)

Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
					

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.  Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that...




					www.bmj.com


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Consider the source: eye doctor association.
> 
> CDC only makes one reference to "eyes" and that's in relation to touching your eyes with germ contaminated fingers (part of their generic public safety routine):
> 
> ...


OK, let's consider other sources because it's not just about touching eyes, that one was just the first, there is a very sound reason why front line medical staff consider themselves un-protected if they do not have integrated eye protection if not wearing a full face respirator, let's suppose people wearing the face masks are wearing them to protect themselves (a bit like front line medical staff...… there has been advice already for some time recommending wearing a face mask if you are infected to protect others), I guess that the main reason for wearing the mask for protection is to protect from someone coughing or sneezing in their immediate vicinity, a sneeze can just as easily reach eyes as it can mouths & noses and eyes don't require inhalation and have a link to the nose...…...

This is a US Doctor explaining that.....................









						Jesse Santiano M.D.Don't Get Sick!You Can Become Infected by the Coronavirus Thru the Eyes!
					

The Coronavirus can get to the Nose thru the eyes. Have you noticed that when people cry, they get the sniffles? When we yawn, our eyes make tears, and we find our nose becomes runny. That is becau…




					drjessesantiano.com
				




An LA Times article, take a look about half way down, someone from the *CDC *quoted mentions infection through eyes, I'll paste the relevant paragraph but there is more...……….

_"Getting sneezed at or coughed on by someone who’s infected is probably the most common way, according to the CDC. If that virus-carrying saliva lands on a wet part of your face — your eyes, nose or mouth — you’ll be infected. "_









						How do you become infected with the coronavirus?
					

Tiny drops of infected saliva are the likely reason, but aerosolized particles aren't ruled out.




					www.latimes.com
				




There are many more, you may be right that most get infected through inhilation, all my point and the Viral professor from Switzerland's point is, a face mask does not protect from the virus but as I have said countless times, once social distancing has been enforced wearing them is moot unless someone wants to get up close and personal with a stranger, I would def recommend them in those scenarios


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 4, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> You do realize if you are in a study in which a placebo must be issued, you are informed of that possibility, right?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The possibility 

People will believe what they want to believe. If it turns out, by conclusive evidence, that masks are useful and that self made masks make a marked difference, I am all ears. So far, this is not the case and we can easily leave it there. What I find more interesting is to discover _why_ people are so eager to believe what they want to believe. That is a form of self reflection and I think it is important to do, especially in times like these when the pressure is on, also mentally.


Deaths per day in Netherlands. Our curve is flattening fast!


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 4, 2020)

This is the UK's current situation. We're actually testing more but the cases are definitely flattening out. Not so for the deaths, but that's to be expected - they'll lag well behind the curve.


----------



## HTC (Apr 4, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:





- 10524 confirmed infected
- 75 recovered
- 266 fatalities
- 81087 suspected cases
- 5518 waiting for test results
- 22858 under watch from authorities
- 1075 hospitalized
- 251 in ICU, including @ least 7 doctors and one nurse

I'm not entirely sure what "suspected cases" means but *i think* it's the current number of tests done thus far. *I think* "under watch from authorities" means quarantined, but i'm not sure about it either.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 4, 2020)

Numbers here in Louisiana update

12,496 cases (10,297 yesterday)
409 deaths (370 yesterday)
1,726 hospitalized (1,707 yesterday)
571 on ventilators (535 yesterday)
58,498 tests have been conducted (54,645 yesterday)

Breaking these down for the 5 parishes that comprise the New Orleans Metro Area.

7,831 cases (3,966 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 6,667, with 3,476 of those in New Orleans proper
274 Deaths (153 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 254, with 148 of those in New Orleans proper









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 4, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> This is the UK's current situation. We're actually testing more but the cases are definitely flattening out. Not so for the deaths, but that's to be expected - they'll lag well behind the curve.



Yes, we saw the same here, cases went down a few days back, now the death count per day is also stabilizing. I reckon you might be a week behind us in everything, and you can thank your PM for not listening to his pandemics expert saying 'go herd immunity, because economy!'. Hopefully in a month's time things will be looking a lot better in EU...



HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> View attachment 150368
> 
> ...



You guys are doing exceptionally well, aren't you? How far does your lockdown go right now? And are there other measures in place?

BTW suspected cases may be based on a model, basically just math applied on the current knowledge about spread rate vs measures in place. As we know a large part can have it and be asymptomatic.



FordGT90Concept said:


> We're literally making face masks here and the reason why they want them is not for eye protection, but to extend the life of the N95 respirators underneath.  If someone coughs on the N95 respirator someone else is using, it becomes a transmission vector for the virus that can't easily be cleaned.  Under normal circumstances, that N95 mask would be replaced immediately.  There's not enough to do that.  With a face mask, they can just take a bleach wipe and clean it off quickly.



See, now we're making a bit of sense at least.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 4, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> ...let's suppose people wearing the face masks are wearing them to protect themselves...


We're literally making plastic full face masks here and the reason why they want them is not for eye protection, but to extend the life of the N95 respirators underneath.  If someone coughs on the N95 respirator someone else is using, it becomes a transmission vector for the virus that can't easily be cleaned.  Under normal circumstances, that N95 mask would be replaced immediately.  There's not enough to do that.  With a face mask, they can just take a bleach wipe and clean it off quickly.



Tatty_One said:


> An LA Times article, take a look about half way down, someone from the *CDC *quoted mentions infection through eyes, I'll paste the relevant paragraph but there is more...……….
> 
> _"Getting sneezed at or coughed on by someone who’s infected is probably the most common way, according to the CDC. If that virus-carrying saliva lands on a wet part of your face — your eyes, nose or mouth — you’ll be infected. "_
> 
> ...


That source is over a week old; the studies on the AAO article are newer.  Inhalation is the chief concern which is why NIH recommends masks in public.  Getting the virus through eyes is of least concern.



HTC said:


> I'm not entirely sure what "suspected cases" means but *i think* it's the current number of tests done thus far. *I think* "under watch from authorities" means quarantined, but i'm not sure about it either.


Suspected ("Suspieitos") are people who had contact with someone that later tested positive for COVID-19 but they can't perform enough tests to confirm ("Confirmados") the suspicion.  For example, if you were living with four others, you go into the hospital sick, they test you and you're positive for COVID-19, the other four members of your household would be considered suspects due to extensive contact.


----------



## HTC (Apr 4, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> You guys are doing exceptionally well, aren't you? How far does your lockdown go right now? And are there other measures in place?


The number of those waiting for test results is far too high to say that, for now.

Our measures are not as severe as Italy's or Spain's, for now: personally, i think they should be ...

There are a few spots on a more secure lockdown because active spread has been confirmed: these are small locations. It's been considered doing the same to Porto (our 2nd biggest city in the country) because this is by far the region with the most cases, but authorities haven't made up their minds ...


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 4, 2020)

HTC said:


> The number of those waiting for test results is far too high to say that, for now.
> 
> Our measures are not as severe as Italy's or Spain's, for now: personally, i think they should be ...
> 
> There are a few spots on a more secure lockdown because active spread has been confirmed: these are small locations. It's been considered doing the same to Porto (our 2nd biggest city in the country) because this is by far the region with the most cases, but authorities haven't made up their minds ...



I think in the long run you will be happy your government isn't going full panic mode. They are looking at region by region, and day by day basis. This is very very positive because it means they are considering the impact on economy and social life as well.


----------



## HTC (Apr 4, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> *I think in the long run you will be happy your government isn't going full panic mode.* They are looking at region by region, and day by day basis. This is very very positive because it means they are considering the impact on economy and social life as well.



I fear the opposite will be true but we'll just have to wait to find out.

If you scale Portugal's population to France's, we'd have over 68000 cases, with over 1700 deaths.

I'd say "we're not very bad" but we're FAR from OK.

Today, we passed South Korea's cases, and they have roughly 5 times our population but have less cases than us, and less deaths as well: now here's a country that actually DID and is STILL doing WELL VS this virus.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 4, 2020)

HTC said:


> I fear the opposite will be true but we'll just have to wait to find out.
> 
> If you scale Portugal's population to France's, we'd have over 68000 cases, with over 1700 deaths.
> 
> ...



You're not wrong I think, but the problem with us is that we haven't had any experience with an infection nest 'next door' in the shape of China. The only reason South Korea did so well is because they've been here before, and not too long ago either. It may very well be possible that we copy their contingencies for this situation for future events. The harsh reality is that even if we wanted to copy them today, we simply haven't got the means to. Therein also lies a real risk of loss of privacy, these measures should always be temporary and with a marked end date...

Germany at least copied part of their approach with rigorous testing; and that also seems to work quite well for them. But what we simply don't have, is border security as South Korea has it. We have a strict agreement saying people can cross borders in the entire EU... and no equipment either to do mass temperature readings upon entry, for example.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 4, 2020)

UK update...………….

Updated 4 Apr at 21:23 local
Confirmed positive *41,903* (+3,035)
Deaths *4,313* (+702)


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 4, 2020)

It's going faster and faster, nearly 79k today. I guess soon it'll be 100k a day... 
Only good news seems to be fewer deaths in Italy and Spain.


----------



## HTC (Apr 4, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> *It's going faster and faster*, nearly 79k today. I guess soon it'll be 100k a day...
> *Only good news seems to be fewer deaths in Italy and Spain.*



That's the problem with exponential growth: it "runs" faster than we can "chase".

As more resources are being freed from less infected + more recovered per day, hospitals can better cope with "the avalanche" so fatalities tend to go down, though not @ the same pace as new infected per day.


----------



## Rahnak (Apr 4, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> You guys are doing exceptionally well, aren't you? How far does your lockdown go right now? And are there other measures in place?



I'd say we're doing OK. Czech Republic is the one doing well. Saw a pretty interesting story on the news yesterday comparing the evolution of the virus in Portugal and the Czech Republic since we both have a population of around 10M and we both had the first cases at about the same time with slightly different approaches and results. Quick summary:

Portugal | Czech Republic
First infected: March 2nd | March 1st
100 infected: March 13th | March 12th
Closed schools: March 16th | March 11th
Declared state of emergency: March 18th | March 12th
Restricted borders: March 16th | March 16th

Czech Republic also made the use of mask mandatory on March 18th (it was the focus point of the piece) and prohibited any social gathering of over 2 people that aren't family on March 23rd.

As of yesterday (Friday, April 3rd) Portugal had over twice the infected (9886 vs 4091) and almost five as many dead (246 vs 53).

Taking harder measures and quicker, along with mandatory use of masks seems to have helped quite a bit over there.

Over here, the recommendation to wear a mask has been increased from just health professionals and infected to people that may come in contact with infected (kinda vague) and essential jobs workers.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 4, 2020)

Rahnak said:


> I'd say we're doing OK. Czech Republic is the one doing well. Saw a pretty interesting story on the news yesterday comparing the evolution of the virus in Portugal and the Czech Republic since we both have a population of around 10M and we both had the first cases at about the same time with slightly different approaches and results. Quick summary:
> 
> Portugal | Czech Republic
> First infected: March 2nd | March 1st
> ...


You also work with Taiwan, so a big thumbs up for that.








						Taiwan and Czech Republic ink deal on coronavirus collaboration | Taiwan News | 2020-04-02 14:17:00
					

Czechia the first European country to partner with Taiwan on medical and technological research | 2020-04-02 14:17:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## HTC (Apr 5, 2020)

Rahnak said:


> [...]
> 
> As of yesterday (Friday, April 3rd) Portugal had over twice the infected (9886 vs 4091) and almost five as many dead (246 vs 53).
> 
> ...



Agreed: had we reacted "stronger" sooner, perhaps the problem didn't escalate as much as it has.

IMO, the sooner a country takes drastic steps, the faster it can resume later, thus actually costing a whole lot less overall. HOWEVER, there should be NO LETTING UP of protective steps such as wearing masks for example for quite some time, in an attempt to minimize potential 2nd and 3rd waves of the virus.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 5, 2020)

Bit of an update for my county. Info taken from the Stanislaus County web-site. As of 4/4/20 @ 1630 (4:30PM) there are 65 positive cases. 1541 tests have come back negative for COVID-19, and there are 0 related deaths. Breaking it down further, my city has 27 of those 65 confirmed cases. Where it gets a bit fuzzy in relation to specifics is the number of hospitalized. 25 have been hospitalized, but it doesn't break it down by cities within the county. A bit concerning is the numbers by age group: 

AGE GROUP
0-17: 2
*18-49: 31*
50-64: 20 
65+: 12 

Rather than the number being higher in the 65+ group, they are actually HIGHEST among 18-49, which runs counter to notion that those 65+ are at greatest risk. I'll keep my eyes on the numbers going forward to see if this changes though.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 5, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> I think in the long run you will be happy your government isn't going full panic mode. They are looking at region by region, and day by day basis. This is very very positive because it means they are considering the impact on economy and social life as well.



Our Govener got skewered for doing lockdowns county by county.  People were outraged.  I really think a tiered approach should have been taken.  I am more concerned about the after effects this will have on the global economy.  Especially when this resurfaces in the fall.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 5, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> So far, this is not the case and we can easily leave it there.



Actually, it is the case.  Even the CDC caved and amended their guidelines today.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 5, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> Actually, it is the case.  Even the CDC caved and amended their guidelines today.


Link?


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 5, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Link?











						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				




And a FAQ on the same:









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				




Keep in mind being fresh out of a hospital (from my father), I kinda knew this was the case.  Pretty much every doctor there said the same.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 5, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
> 
> 
> Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
> ...


Thank You.

Hope you don't mind me adding those two links to the OP.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 5, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> Actually, it is the case.  Even the CDC caved and amended their guidelines today.


Actually, you are partially correct. The CDC didn’t cave, but has been pushing for everyone to wear masks for a couple weeks. The rest of the cabinet and health experts advising the President have been shooting them down. Now the CDC finally wins.

The stated purpose was not to protect everyone in the traditional sense, but to prevent people who are in the transmittable asymptomatic phase from shedding the virus on others.


----------



## Flanker (Apr 5, 2020)

NZ Update: 1,039 Confirmed + Probable, 15 in hospital. 






Not seeing an exponential growth, which is good. I think the low population density and level 4 lockdown is helping


----------



## biffzinker (Apr 5, 2020)

The same thing with a burning sensation in my upper chest a week ago last Friday happened again today the only difference was my whole chest felt like it was on fire. Sense of smell was wonky too. They wouldn’t let me leave at first until the next guy came in at 2:30. Called over the internal company phone got someone else told them what was going. Finely they let me leave. Yeah there short on people but figured best to go home.

Guess I’m wearing a N95 mask next time I go back.


----------



## erocker (Apr 5, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> The same thing with a burning sensation in my upper chest a week ago last Friday happened again today the only difference was my whole chest felt like it was on fire. Sense of smell was wonky too. They wouldn’t let me leave at first until the next guy came in at 2:30. Called over the internal company phone got someone else told them what was going. Finely they let me leave. Yeah there short on people but figured best to go home.
> 
> Guess I’m wearing a N95 mask next time I go back.


Is that your only symptom? I've had esophagitis caused by heartburn and it was as you describe. I now take Pepcid every day and it's gone.


----------



## biffzinker (Apr 5, 2020)

erocker said:


> Is that your only symptom? I've had esophagitis caused by heartburn and it was as you describe. I now take Pepcid every day and it's gone.


The only time I have trouble with acid reflux is at nighttime when I’m in bed sleeping.

Started getting chills, and had a dull fever going on at the same time.

Feeling fine since I took a nap when I got home. Still something going at the bottom left side of my chest. Whatever it was is almost gone, nothing on the right side.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 5, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> *The only time I have trouble with acid reflux is at nighttime when I’m in bed sleeping.
> 
> Started getting chills, and had a dull fever going on at the same time.*
> 
> Feeling fine since I took a nap when I got home. Still something going at the bottom left side of my chest. Whatever it was is almost gone, nothing on the right side.



Something that might help (although, maybe you've tried this already) is sleeping slightly elevated so that your head is just a bit higher than your chest. Not a lot. You could maybe achieve this by using an extra pillow. 

Eek, those two things have been a common complaint of COVID-19 patients, man. I really hhope you're alright


----------



## erocker (Apr 5, 2020)

biffzinker said:


> The only time I have trouble with acid reflux is at nighttime when I’m in bed sleeping.
> 
> Started getting chills, and had a dull fever going on at the same time.
> 
> Feeling fine since I took a nap when I got home. Still something going at the bottom left side of my chest. Whatever it was is almost gone, nothing on the right side.


I hope you get well soon.


----------



## Deleted member 67555 (Apr 5, 2020)

erocker said:


> I hope you get well soon.


You Good?


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 5, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> Actually, it is the case.  Even the CDC caved and amended their guidelines today.



The CDC.. yes.

rtwjunkie is on the money here. The only reason to recommend this is for lack of real solutions. It has nothing to do with good governance...


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 5, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Bit of an update for my county. Info taken from the Stanislaus County web-site. As of 4/4/20 @ 1630 (4:30PM) there are 65 positive cases. 1541 tests have come back negative for COVID-19, and there are 0 related deaths. Breaking it down further, my city has 27 of those 65 confirmed cases. Where it gets a bit fuzzy in relation to specifics is the number of hospitalized. 25 have been hospitalized, but it doesn't break it down by cities within the county. A bit concerning is the numbers by age group:
> 
> AGE GROUP
> 0-17: 2
> ...



Those 18 - 49 stats may well be, if anything like we are seeing in the UK, the age group most likely to flaunt/ignore social distancing, we are in lockdown, because this weekend the weather is warm and sunny the population were warned in advance not to congregate in public areas, yesterday there were 3000 in a small park, and a pile of people on a beach in Brighton, some having BBQ's (Police came along and threw water on the BBQ's), whilst I only saw it on news coverage it appeared that most of those 3000 in the park and those on the beach were from that age range, I mean, come on people what is unclear from our lockdown laws...…...

Only leave your home if...……......
1.  To go to work if you are an essential worker (and approved to do so) and cannot work from home.
2.  To have one daily exercise session close to home, no travelling to a specific location to exercise, this can include walking a dog for up to 30 minutes.
3.  To shop for essential supplies, only one person per household and trips should be minimised preferably to just once weekly
4.  To collect essential medicines
5.  To support a vulnerable person in your immediate local community that has no other support

All whilst practicing social distancing.  Anything else should result in internment!


----------



## HTC (Apr 5, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 11278 confirmed infected --- 754 more
- 75 recovered --- no change since yesterday
- 295 fatalities --- 29 more
- 86370 suspected cases --- 5283 more
- 4962 waiting for test results --- 556 LESS
- 22858 under watch from authorities --- 351 more
- 1084 hospitalized --- 9 more
- 267 in ICU, including @ least 7 doctors and one nurse --- 16 more

Over 32K companies in March alone, the majority of them micro and small in size, have applied for "simplified layoff": that encompasses roughly 550K workers now on layoff. By comparison there seems to have been roughly 28K new unemployed, according to government's numbers.

IMO this is actually better than i thought because the whole point is trying to save jobs and, for the most part, we're succeeding. Obviously those 28K would beg to differ but it's way WAY better then having 578K unemployed.

From *what i understand*, this "simplified layoff" *means the worker gets roughly 2 / 3 of the normal salary*, with the employer paying 1 / 3 of that and the government, by means of social security, paying for the remaining 2 / 3. HOWEVER, i don't know if there's a cap for the highest salary or not, but i suspect there is.

EDIT

Placed the pic in thumbnail.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 5, 2020)

Well, this looks like a bad result:









						Coronavirus: Boris Johnson admitted to hospital over virus symptoms
					

The prime minister is undergoing "routine tests", 10 days after he was diagnosed with coronavirus.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




I've read of people doing okay, then going randomly downhill. Not his fan but genuinely, wouldn't want to lose our PM through this.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 5, 2020)

April 5 Louisiana update







13,010 cases (12,496 yesterday)
477 deaths (409 yesterday)
1,803 hospitalized (1,726 yesterday)
561 on ventilators (571 yesterday)  **first day of ventilator decrease*
60,325 tests have been conducted (58,498 yesterday)

Breaking these down for the 5 parishes that comprise the New Orleans Metro Area.

8,048 cases (4,066 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 7,831, with 3,966 of those in New Orleans proper
302 Deaths (161 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 274, with 153 of those in New Orleans proper 









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 5, 2020)

UK update for today:
*47,806* tested positive (+5,903)
*4,934* fatalities (+621)


----------



## flmatter (Apr 5, 2020)

Alaska's latest  we are up to 185 cases.


----------



## theFOoL (Apr 5, 2020)

*LINK*





So far are area Summerdale has none but our Mayor is so Stupid. Took her this long to relies this is serious​


----------



## HTC (Apr 5, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, this looks like a bad result:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



More like his health is deteriorating and is being moved to a hospital where there will be immediate response, should his condition worsen still.

I don't wish him nor ANYBODY death because of this virus but i figure if he "gets a good look from the front row seat" @ how hospital's are coping with this, the UK people will be better off due to the decisions he makes later, once he's better, regarding COVID-19 fighting.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 6, 2020)

rk3066 said:


> *LINK*
> 
> View attachment 150486
> 
> So far are area Summerdale has none but our Mayor is so Stupid. Took her this long to relies this is serious​



Unfortunately, there are still a few states that STILL haven't declared state-wide "shelter-in-place" orders: North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska and Arkansas. States that have the order in only PARTS of the state are Wyoming, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html



HTC said:


> More like his health is deteriorating and is being moved to a hospital where there will be immediate response, should his condition worsen still.
> 
> I don't wish him nor ANYBODY death because of this virus but i figure if he "gets a good look from the front row seat" @ how hospital's are coping with this, the UK people will be better off due to the decisions he makes later, once he's better, regarding COVID-19 fighting.



I was reading about him on a Huffington Post article. Supposedly, he's only being put in hospital "for tests" but he's had symptoms for 11 days now. Says he "feels better" but still has a fever. His fiancee was mentioned in the article, too. She also reported having symptoms for a week, but is "on the mend" now. She wasn't tested. She's also pregnant


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 6, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Unfortunately, there are still a few states that STILL haven't declared state-wide "shelter-in-place" orders: North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska and Arkansas. States that have the order in only PARTS of the state are Wyoming, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah.



I still don't feel a total lockdown was the way to go.  Here in Florida, we have less cases than some who implemented a lockdown weeks before us and less deaths than others who have more cases.  Not to mention we have half the country's retirees here.

Do lockdowns work?  Absolutely.  Are the best decision?  Unknown.  At this point it is all we have because apparently we never disaster planned for a pandemic even though it had been the what if talk of the last decade.


LocationConfirmedRecoveredDeaths




United States336,95817,4079,626Florida12,341-221New York122,03112,1874,159New Jersey37,50592917Michigan14,2255540California12,83860285Massachusetts12,5003,218231Louisiana12,496-409Illinois11,256-274Pennsylvania10,017-136


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 6, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Unfortunately, there are still a few states that STILL haven't declared state-wide "shelter-in-place" orders: North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska and Arkansas.


I live in Iowa and have access to the daily governor update from South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska.  All three states do recommend people that don't have to go out to not go out.  It's not an order because even if an order was given, officers are likely to be ineffectual at enforcing it.  These are mostly rural states.  Counties with cases are buttoning up.  Travel is not advised.

Edit: Fauci said what those states are doing is fine.  It's not spreading very fast.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 6, 2020)

HTC said:


> More like his health is deteriorating and is being moved to a hospital where there will be immediate response, should his condition worsen still.
> 
> I don't wish him nor ANYBODY death because of this virus but i figure if he "gets a good look from the front row seat" @ how hospital's are coping with this, the UK people will be better off due to the decisions he makes later, once he's better, regarding COVID-19 fighting.


There are indications that if the high fever persists beyond 7 days (he has had a fever for 9 or 10 days) then the likelihood of pneumonia is increased 2 or 3 fold so he has gone in for respiratory tests however, allegedly he has not reported a shortness of breath, if he is not out by tomorrow night I would guess it is worse than his office is saying.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 6, 2020)

Moved a couple of posts to the Covid-19 lounge thread. None were LQ, or poor, just not maps and stats related.


----------



## HTC (Apr 6, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> There are indications that if the high fever persists beyond 7 days (he has had a fever for 9 or 10 days) then the likelihood of pneumonia is increased 2 or 3 fold so he has gone in for respiratory tests however, allegedly he has not reported a shortness of breath, if he is not out by tomorrow night I would guess it is worse than his office is saying.



That makes sense.

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 11730 confirmed infected --- 452 more
- 140 recovered --- 65 more
- 311 fatalities --- 16 more
- 91794 suspected cases --- 5424 more
- 4500 waiting for test results --- 462 LESS
- 23470 under watch from authorities --- 612 more
- 1099 hospitalized --- 15 more
- 270 in ICU --- 3 more

Forgot to mention yesterday: a Chinese business woman donated 4.5M Euros worth of ventilators and hospital monitor equipment. It's not the 1st time this particular business woman donates / invests to / in Portugal, having done so in the past, long before COVID-19 --- *BIG THANK YOU*

Part of this donation should arrive today, with the rest to follow soon.

Portugal, between the above mentioned donation, and the purchase it did of ventilators, will more than double the current number of ventilators in the country: from the "original" 1142 to over 2600: the ventilators are supposed to be delivered throughout April and May.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 6, 2020)

Looks like you can track the outbreaks in the UK by burning 5G cell towers now...








						UK carriers would appreciate you not setting cell towers on fire | Engadget
					

The arson attacks against 5G masts in the UK have become serious enough that carriers are joining together to put a stop to the incidents.




					www.engadget.com


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 6, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> rtwjunkie is on the money here. The only reason to recommend this is for lack of real solutions. It has nothing to do with good governance...



Did I ever say it did?

I believe my claim was "better than nothing."



TheLostSwede said:


> Looks like you can track the outbreaks in the UK by burning 5G cell towers now...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Ah yes, it's not a virus, but 5G...  that makes perfect sense!


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 6, 2020)

April 6, 2020 for Louisiana:

14,867 cases (13,010 yesterday)
512 deaths (477 yesterday)
1,809 hospitalized (1,803 yesterday)
563 on ventilators (561 yesterday)  
69,166 tests have been conducted (60,325 yesterday)

Breaking these down for the 5 parishes that comprise the New Orleans Metro Area.

9,099 cases (4,565 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 8,048, with 4,066 of those in New Orleans proper
323 Deaths (171 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 302, with 161 of those in New Orleans proper


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 6, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> April 6, 2020 for Louisiana:
> 
> 14,867 cases (13,010 yesterday)
> 512 deaths (477 yesterday)
> ...



Are those stats slowing, as in day on day?


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 6, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Are those stats slowing, as in day on day?


There seems to be a slowing overall in hospitalization, deaths and ventilators. There are outliers, but in general, I think so.  I read someplace this morning (I apologize for not having the link) that some think that New Orleans area COULD peak by early next week.

EDIT:
I found a link about peaking next week here. It was Dr. Birx:








						Birx warns mortality will peak in NY, New Orleans and Detroit next week
					

Trump, during a White House briefing, said that 1,000 military personnel would be deployed to New York City and that he would seek more aid for small businesses if relief funds ran out.




					www.cnbc.com
				












						Dr. Deborah Birx warns hotspots will see a spike in coronavirus deaths over next 6-7 days
					

“They are predicting in those three hotspots, all of them hitting together in the next six to seven days," Dr. Deborah Birx said.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## LFaWolf (Apr 6, 2020)

We do the lock down, and then we have this - https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/asia/china-coronavirus-tourist-warning-intl-hnk/index.html
Are they kidding?

This is a sad statistics if it is true - https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/us/domestic-violence-coronavirus-calls-cases-increase-invs/index.html

Also, I don't think we talk enough about the mental state of people under lock down, especially those with mental illness. I also saw a few instances similar to this - https://nypost.com/2020/04/03/man-kills-self-after-being-pushed-over-edge-by-coronavirus-loneliness/

For me, I find myself being slightly edgy for being stuck at home all the time. No tennis, no dining out. One can only watch so many YouTube videos How about you guys?


----------



## Xzibit (Apr 6, 2020)

There have been a number of violence due to Covid19. I remember reading one where a man tried to set his wife on fire.  Another killed people for being too loud.

Also more and more homeless are embolden due to the hands off approach due to COVID19.  Stores employee are letting them take items at will rather then to risk confrontation or infection.


----------



## flmatter (Apr 6, 2020)

Alaska    191 cases and 6 deaths
Wyoming and North Dakota are close to us in cases 200 and 207


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 6, 2020)

7,800,000,000   World Population
1,330,000          Confirmed Infected
276,000             Confirmed Recovered
73,000               Fatalities

The numbers are beginning to show that things might tapering off.


----------



## xman2007 (Apr 7, 2020)

There have been several domestic murders and on the rise incidents of familicide and domestic abuse where I live, I've read several stories of them in the past week though I can't compare to before the outbreak if they are more or less, just that there has only been one murder in my locality in the last year or so before this that kind of shook the community as it's such a small town and things like this don't really happen that often


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 7, 2020)

Mexico...








						Mexico reports 296 new coronavirus cases, stresses need for medical personnel
					

Mexico posted its biggest single-day jump in coronavirus cases on Monday as the deputy health minister said the country needed to recruit more medical personnel to confront a worsening outbreak.




					www.reuters.com
				




Global death rate is at 5.5% now:








						Tracking the spread of the novel coronavirus
					

Reuters maps all places where COVID-19 cases have been confirmed.




					graphics.reuters.com
				



Instead of separating China, now they show the number of cases for each region.

Europe has the most cases but it appears to have been flattened.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 7, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I read someplace this morning (I apologize for not having the link) that some think that New Orleans area COULD peak by early next week.



I believe Florida isn't projected to peak until the first week of May.  That's a long ass time.  I still wonder why our death rate is lower than other states.  It seems that way anyway.  We certainly don't have any shortage of elderly or compromised individuals.


----------



## 1freedude (Apr 7, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> There have been several domestic murders and on the rise incidents of familicide and domestic abuse where I live, I've read several stories of them in the past week though I can't compare to before the outbreak if they are more or less, just that there has only been one murder in my locality in the last year or so before this that kind of shook the community as it's such a small town and things like this don't really happen that often


I wonder if these will be calculated as coronavirus related deaths.  As it is, no one really dies from coronavirus, its a complication that causes death.


----------



## robot zombie (Apr 7, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> It's not an order because even if an order was given, officers are likely to be ineffectual at enforcing it.


While that is true, actually enforcing it isn't always everything. Even just putting it in people's minds can have an effect... a leader putting out a mandate can have a significant effect on compliance, even if they technically couldn't exactly go after people. It worked here. For quite a while it's been a soft request with our governor. As soon as it became an order, people listened, this place became a ghost town, and has been since.

Two reasons, I think. Your average person is not actually that daring. They will go out, if they are convinced there won't be immediate ramifications They know they shouldn't, but don't care because to them it doesn't actually matter to anyone. So conversely, if they think there might be any chance of maybe getting pulled over (they wouldn't know how many people would be out for them to blend into, either,) they're not going to be as inclined to go anywhere... if they happen to wonder if maybe it'll be them, a few workers, and the occasional cop, they might hesitate. The other reason is that we are past the point where people can think this is not a long-haul situation. Now that there are questions of when normalcy can really be, and people have lived that uncertainty for several weeks, they're starting to become more receptive and compliant... just kinda realizing that this is something they may not have fully understood. That aside, they don't fully know what that means. What happens if they do go out without good reason now that it's official? They don't know. Probably nothing. But nobody wants to be the one to find out.

I suppose it depends on the area. We had problems particularly I think because we had so many people flock from other states to stay with family here... probably thinking they could get away from the virus and the stay home stuff and keep some normalcy. They weren't wrong. You could get away with it. They don't live or work here. They may have mistook the town's normal quiet and calm for something else. Compared to where they came from, things would've seemed surprisingly normal... enough that you might think the same things aren't happening, only at a different stage in the sequence. The changes come in waves, and they go with the flow. Might even have slowed down our tightening up, in a way. I'm sure many people did stay home, but many more chose not to, seeing everybody else out and about, maybe not realizing that the crowd had grown and shifted to look the same as before, even though a lot of your neighbors were already laid off and at home. You wouldn't know it if you went into town, because of that influx of people. Again, things seemed normal. Monkey see, monkey do. Or maybe broken window theory, in a certain sense.

It's just funny... everybody has to be aware of the number of cases in neighboring counties... and our side of the state in general. But they wait until the governor officially comes out and says you gotta stay put to be like "I guess this IS serious." And actually start staying home en masse.


----------



## Flanker (Apr 7, 2020)

I think this is worth a read. It talks about how number of cases reported are most likely inaccurate without accusations or finger pointing








						Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*
					

*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.




					fivethirtyeight.com


----------



## xBruce88x (Apr 7, 2020)

Well here in the state of Georgia, USA, we've got 7558 cases, 1393 hospitalized, and 297 deaths. Up from 2800 last Tuesday. What's interesting is that the site shows hospitalized patients but not recovered patients (perhaps none have yet?). In my county, 29 cases and 3 deaths.

The map I use for the state;









						COVID-19 Status Report
					

These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health.




					dph.georgia.gov
				




It seems to update as often as twice a day sometimes. Shows a map overview with a excel style chart under. Atlanta is hardest hit, for obvious reasons. Well over 1000 cases in the area there.

There's also this interesting read...









						Mysterious Heart Damage, Not Just Lung Troubles, Befalling COVID-19 Patients
					

Most of the attention in the COVID-19 pandemic has been on how the virus affects the lungs. But evidence shows that up to 1 in 5 hospitalized patients have signs of heart damage and many are dying …




					khn.org
				






xBruce88x said:


> Well here in the state of Georgia, USA, we've got 7558 cases, 1393 hospitalized, and 297 deaths. Up from 2800 last Tuesday. What's interesting is that the site shows hospitalized patients but not recovered patients (perhaps none have yet?). In my county, 29 cases and 3 deaths.
> 
> The map I use for the state;
> 
> ...



I deliver with FedEx, so no stay at home for me.

Omg I hate this phone sometimes... Ignore the odd randomly quoting myself plz


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 7, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> It's not an order because even if an order was given, officers are likely to be ineffectual at enforcing it.



Here in washington it's an order complete with enforcement and fines.



xBruce88x said:


> I deliver with FedEx, so no stay at home for me.



This may sound odd, but given you are one of the few turning cogs in our country right now, thank you for your service...  heh.

Double thank you for healthcare workers, naturally,


----------



## xBruce88x (Apr 7, 2020)

Oh yeah, it's considered a misdemeanor to violate stay at home orders for Georgia.









						Here's what happens if you violate Georgia's stay-at-home order
					

The order is set to run through April 13.




					www.11alive.com
				




Also, thanks. It gets awkward sometimes when people yell at me to stop and leave the package at the driveway because they don't want to get close. I'd wear a mask, but haven't found any yet. I don't think those home made solutions are quite as medically effective. Maybe I'll borrow a suite from a Quarian.


----------



## Zyll Goliat (Apr 7, 2020)

Flanker said:


> I think this is worth a read. It talks about how number of cases reported are most likely inaccurate without accusations or finger pointing
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Also those PCR tests are "highly" inaccurate and can NOT isolate only covid-19 strain the problem is that we do not have anything better ATM.......


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 7, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> While that is true, actually enforcing it isn't always everything. Even just putting it in people's minds can have an effect... a leader putting out a mandate can have a significant effect on compliance, even if they technically couldn't exactly go after people. It worked here. For quite a while it's been a soft request with our governor. As soon as it became an order, people listened, this place became a ghost town, and has been since.
> 
> Two reasons, I think. Your average person is not actually that daring. They will go out, if they are convinced there won't be immediate ramifications They know they shouldn't, but don't care because to them it doesn't actually matter to anyone. So conversely, if they think there might be any chance of maybe getting pulled over (they wouldn't know how many people would be out for them to blend into, either,) they're not going to be as inclined to go anywhere... if they happen to wonder if maybe it'll be them, a few workers, and the occasional cop, they might hesitate. The other reason is that we are past the point where people can think this is not a long-haul situation. Now that there are questions of when normalcy can really be, and people have lived that uncertainty for several weeks, they're starting to become more receptive and compliant... just kinda realizing that this is something they may not have fully understood. That aside, they don't fully know what that means. What happens if they do go out without good reason now that it's official? They don't know. Probably nothing. But nobody wants to be the one to find out.
> 
> ...



The gist of it... people are sheep, this is what the masses really are when things get serious. Not the internet reality of 'free thinkers', but overwhelmingly _this. _Simple product of evolution really... the group/herd has always kept us safer than being alone. Thát is why we conform. Monkey see monkey do, but it speaks of our basic instinct of survival, really.

And there is always that small percentage going against the flow, too. Its funny though now that things get real, you truly see how small that 'vocal' minority really is. Here in NL its so small, its inconsequential to the overall 'soft' lockdown we have. Government simply urges us to stay at home as much as we can, so we're still left to our own devices on the exact how and when; we can still do almost everything, but in moderation and with social distance. Its amazing how well the vast majority sticks to the rules. And part of the reason, a big part I think, is obviously that if you're _still in denial today_ that this is pretty threatening stuff, well, you're officially a threat to the rest of us.


----------



## Ahhzz (Apr 7, 2020)

This got my attention. 









						Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death
					

A Flourish data visualisation by Robert Martin



					public.flourish.studio


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> And there is always that small percentage going against the flow, too. Its funny though now that things get real, you truly see how small that 'vocal' minority really is.


Well there is going against the flow with reason and rationale and just being a dumbass and protesting something you don't understand.

Don't confuse the two.  There is so much misinformation going about from people who really do believe they are "free thinkers."  Not just Coronavirus either.

In related news, today I got a hell of a bloody nose out of nowhere and now I seem to be developing the sniffles.  FrogGod help us.  If I catch this, I legit did everything I could and only went grocery shopping twice.  We didn't even get toilet paper...  you don't wanna know how that's being handled.  And yet here I am, looking like I might be getting something.

Screw this.  If it's Covid-19, I'm going to kill it with rage.


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 7, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> Well there is going against the flow with reason and rationale and just being a dumbass and protesting something you don't understand.
> 
> Don't confuse the two.  There is so much misinformation going about from people who really do believe they are "free thinkers."  Not just Coronavirus either.
> 
> In related news, today I got a hell of a bloody nose out of nowhere and now I seem to be developing the sniffles.  God help us.


Along with misinformation, it is reading some information incorrectly and/or adding relevance and meaning to that data where perhaps there is none. These maps and charts are great, but reading them seems to be more of a free for all.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 7, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Along with misinformation, it is reading some information incorrectly adding relevance and meaning where perhaps there is none.



That's always an issue.  and I hope I'm doing it with my symptoms here.  I am a paranoid bugger being we were in a major Seattle hospital last week.

Issue is, if I have it I'm locking myself away and not talking to anyone in the household for abit, but I'm likely not the only one...  They can't risk it, Hell, I can't risk it but if that ship sails, oh well.  But we probably all have it.

Oh well, if we die tommorow, at least i got some good gaming in... lol.

I finally landed on Duna in Kerbal the other day.  /lifecomplete?


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 7, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> Issue is, if I have it I'm locking myself away and not talking to anyone in the household for abit, but I'm likely not the only one... They can't risk it, Hell, I can't risk it but if that ship sails, oh well. But we probably all have it.



You have support here.  We'll all pool together and send you some virtual hcq.


----------



## theFOoL (Apr 7, 2020)

Today 

*LINK*


----------



## HTC (Apr 7, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 12242 confirmed infected --- 712 more
- 184 recovered --- 44 more
- 345 fatalities --- 34 more
- 99730 suspected cases --- 7936 more
- 4442 waiting for test results --- 58 LESS
- 25070 under watch from authorities --- 1600 more
- 1180 hospitalized --- 81 more
- 271 in ICU --- 1 more

Dunno exactly what "suspect cases" means: i thought it was the number of tests performed thus far but the total number of conducted tests has already crossed the 110K mark, so what exactly does it mean?


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 7, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> That's always an issue.  and I hope I'm doing it with my symptoms here.  I am a paranoid bugger being we were in a major Seattle hospital last week.
> 
> Issue is, if I have it I'm locking myself away and not talking to anyone in the household for abit, but I'm likely not the only one...  They can't risk it, Hell, I can't risk it but if that ship sails, oh well.  But we probably all have it.
> 
> ...



Even despite your condition you are still not in the highest risk groups though are you. Don't talk yourself into a hole... yes, this virus is annoying as hell and yes we should work against it to keep things in check, but the vast majority still survives it. The percentages you see, are percentages, of percentages, of percentages. 5% death rate may seem like a lot but it _also_ includes all the edge cases, and it includes a big part of what would have otherwise been deaths to influenza of some sort. After all, you can only die once, and if you're already weakened, _anything _can push one over the edge.

I mean unless you're Jabba the Hut condition wise IRL you're not without a fighting chance, your body has muscle and energy to cope with an invasion. Your cells are simply of better quality than an elderly person, etc. So... for what it's worth, I hope this gives _some _perspective


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 7, 2020)

April 7, 2020 for Louisiana:

16,284 cases (14,867 yesterday)
582 deaths (512 yesterday) 
1,996 hospitalized (1,809 yesterday)
519 on ventilators (563 yesterday)  
74,654 tests have been conducted (69,166 yesterday)

Breaking these down for the 5 parishes that comprise the New Orleans Metro Area.

9,968 cases (4,942 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 9,099, with 4,565 of those in New Orleans proper
356 Deaths (185 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 323, with 171 of those in New Orleans proper









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 7, 2020)

UK Update 7th April

213,181 tested
*55,242* tested positive (+3,634)
*6,159 *fatalities (+786)

@HTC Could suspect cases possibly mean that infected people are being contact traced to see who they have spent time with and for people married with families it would be quite likely that the families would catch it at some point but have not yet been tested?


----------



## BaRRoS (Apr 7, 2020)

HTC said:


> Dunno exactly what "suspect cases" means: i thought it was the number of tests performed thus far but the total number of conducted tests has already crossed the 110K mark, so what exactly does it mean?




Taken from https://www.sns24.gov.pt/tema/doencas-infecciosas/covid-19/testes-e-tratamento/#sec-0 


> What is a suspected case of COVID-19?
> People who develop:
> 
> Acute respiratory cough (persistent or worsening of usual cough)
> ...


----------



## HTC (Apr 7, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> @HTC Could suspect cases possibly mean that infected people are being contact traced to see who they have spent time with and for people married with families it would be quite likely that the families would catch it at some point but have not yet been tested?



@BaRRoS answered that for me: thanks, dude!


----------



## robot zombie (Apr 7, 2020)

Welp, a staff member likely has it. It could take up to 5 days for the test to come back, but he's had a mild fever on and off, slight difficulty breathing, dry cough, pain in his chest... just got off the phone with him... he is really laid-up.

I am now on my paid vacation, as I was in closest contact.

You wanna know what's fucked up? They're not telling anybody there. Keeping childcare open and everything. Because they don't know if he actually has it and don't want to cause panic... as though there's nothing to legitimately be concerned about in that situation. Just the fact that I am home right now say they know there is.

All I can say is they better pray he doesn't, because if he does, everybody has very likely been exposed and leadership gets to be the ones responsible for more people getting sick, because they told those people to keep coming to work under pretty reasonable suspicion of being exposed. I thought the orders were pretty clear. If you have directly been around someone who is showing symptoms, you cannot go anywhere, especially not work! It becomes a moral issue. There are people there now, who were in close contact with him yesterday, watching people's kids. Everybody but me and him are at work today, and if either of us are carrying it, I can name at least 4 people who probably are too, now. I tried to tell them people I have been around... they don't want to hear it.

"Well, they're not showing symptoms right now."

"Neither am I!"

You know it's a frustrating conversation when the person says "It could just be the flu... we don't really know."  Internally I was screaming "WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN THIS WHOLE SPRING?! That's not how any of this works you tool." I've got half a mind to start making calls myself, see if I can talk some sense into my co-workers myself. They haven't been told things that I know about the situation, directly from the suspected case. They might not be so happy and carefree knowing what they're not being told...

If he doesn't test positive, great. Everyone goes back to work in a couple of days. But if he DOES test positive, and you had days of warning, but chose to hide it... that just looks bad, because it means he probably won't be the only one testing positive. I am having a hard time watching that be put on the table, with really nothing to lose but the health and safety of those people. That's the thing... we could close to today and nobody loses their jobs. We won't lose parents.. hell, enrollment for summer is INSANE. The money is ALREADY there. Money from the government, money set aside, AS MUCH as we ask for is ours, straight from our parent organization. So why are those people still there taking that chance like there is no risk of exposure? It makes no sense to me.

Well, if you understand our leadership, it does. This is par for the course. "Decision-avoidance" tactics are the norm for them. They've gotten by because it's never been this serious. But it's like they don't see how this is different from the usual politics... that's kind of how they're treating it. Staff politics. Sometimes with staff politics you lose employees... but rarely do you lose them from the world.

I would be pissed, if I was still there now and found out later that my superiors knew I was at risk. So many bad things could happen and all the higher-ups can talk about is diffusing. This isn't a store or an office. We're down to daycare with a very small amount of kids. I'm glad I'm home, though honestly I wouldn't go if they asked me to come in. They're thinking 'bear minimum impact' and I do get that, but I'm not sure if they know what it means to be 'in contact'.

The secretary has been taking everyone's temperatures as part of the absentee principal's security theater. Safe to say if the other guy has it, she has it, as does probably everyone else...

Funny thing, I turned it down for that very reason. Just because YOU wear a mask and use alcohol on the friggin thing doesn't negate getting that close to people. Nono. Stay AWAY from me, with yer gettin all up on everyone ass.

All I can really say is "What a mess." These people are impossible. It's really easy for me to grasp... you can do all of the little measures you want, but you might as well not bother if you're going to ignore the big one... which is quarantine all people in contact of suspected cases. There are people there now who aren't doing that, and have been allowed to go to work, in spite of having been just as much 'in contact' as I. It's a mistake to play the guessing game, if you ask me. Out of my hands now. I don't envy anyone there.


One very good thing I can say about my employer, is getting paid has never been the worry. It could've been... for some twisted reasons, non-profits aren't required to pay in to basic employee protection, such as unemployment. How that's acceptable at all, I've never gotten. Do employees for non profits not have bills to pay? They don't deserve to be taken care of for their contributions to society as much as people working any other job? According the law, they don't. If you work for a non-profit organization, you're not entitled to unemployment. Which is basically the governments way of saying "Don't work for organizations that try to do good for people... you know, things like provide children with a positive environment and good education. Instead, go work for ones making the MONEY." I guess you're not valuable to the workforce if you do anything other than help people make money for their own benefit with your time and effort. *shrugs*

So really, us being out on our ass is really out on our ass, not that FL unemployment is good to begin with - it's one of the worst-paying in the country. I am grateful for being shielded from that... I don't have to worry about my bills, or affording necessities. I can't imagine what it's like for the people who actually are up in the air like that. All I've ever had to worry about was staying healthy and following precautions. Staying home is a no-debate scenario. I have no reason not to, and lose nothing by doing so. Which is how it should be for everyone, in a better world.

But then, we're really learning some hard lessons about our debt-based economy all around, aren't we? Pile on stuff like this with an economic model where recessions are an inevitable fact of life and you get waves of people with less income getting swept under. So that's kind of a BIG problem :/


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 7, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> This got my attention.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's very interesting. Seems fairly accurate too.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 7, 2020)

Some stats have just come out for UK fatalities, only caught the tail end of it on the news but nothing out yet that I can post, what I did catch of the news though was interesting, of all deaths (lets say 5,500 as of a couple of days ago), 73% were male, of all deaths 61% had a BMI of over 25 and the average age of the first 3000 to die was 73 but the average age of the last 2,500 to die is just 60.

More to follow when I find it.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 7, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Some stats have just come out for UK fatalities, only caught the tail end of it on the news but nothing out yet that I can post, what I did catch of the news though was interesting, of all deaths (lets say 5,500 as of a couple of days ago), 73% were male, of all deaths 61% had a BMI of over 25 and the average age of the first 3000 to die was 73 but the average age of the last 2,500 to die is just 60.
> 
> More to follow when I find it.


Interesting.  In Louisiana, only 26% had obesity, whereas 66% had high blood pressure.


----------



## flmatter (Apr 8, 2020)

Alaska   213 today, most interesting thing to point out is that there is a case in Bethel Alaska. Has to be travel related, got it either here in Anchorage or in Kodiak.  Travel to Bethel is either by plane or by boat in summer. Now the possibility of it spreading to isolated villages with no health care is very serious.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 8, 2020)

@robot zombie - I just wanted to take a second to tell you that I truly enjoy reading your posts. They are always so insightful. Hope you're managing to stay safe and healthy during this time. 

And that goes for the rest of you contributing to this thread as well


----------



## biffzinker (Apr 8, 2020)

This flat folded N95 mask I'm wearing at work isn't to restricted for breathing through unlike the 3M N95 mask I tried. Seven and 1/2 hours though is quite the test for if you can handle it.

Didn't realize my bad breath was so offensive.

Sorry for the off topic post.


----------



## Dmu (Apr 8, 2020)

More than 1400 in France yesterday... it's getting out of control


----------



## trparky (Apr 8, 2020)

Yikes.

Info provided by https://covid19info.live/.


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 8, 2020)

trparky said:


> View attachment 150776
> Yikes.
> 
> Info provided by https://covid19info.live/.


Yikes what?


EDIT: France's numbers?


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 8, 2020)

That UK figure is a bit out as of today, we have our most deaths for a 24 hour period but whilst awful it almost feels a sin to say it is expected as our peak is due ironically on Easter Sunday ...……….   



Daily14,682 (tests)12,959 (people tested)5,492 (positive cases)938 (deaths)Total282,074232,70860,7337,097


----------



## 1freedude (Apr 8, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> .......           our peak is due ironically on Easter Sunday ...……….


 



Let's just hope they don't get up and start walking again


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 8, 2020)

April 8, 2020 for Louisiana:

Deaths were up again,  Number hospitalized decreased for 1st time, and number on ventilators decreased for 2nd day in a row.

17,030 cases (16,284 yesterday)
652 deaths (582 yesterday) 
1,983 hospitalized (1,996 yesterday)
490 on ventilators (519 yesterday)  
81,406 tests have been conducted (74,654 yesterday)

Breaking these down for the 5 parishes that comprise the New Orleans Metro Area.

10,322 cases (5,070 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 9,968, with 4,942 of those in New Orleans proper
392 Deaths (208 actually in New Orleans) -yesterday was 365, with 185 of those in New Orleans proper


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 8, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> April 8, 2020 for Louisiana:
> 
> Deaths were up again,  Number hospitalized decreased for 1st time, and number on ventilators decreased for 2nd day in a row.
> 
> ...


What's the population of Louisiana?


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 8, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> What's the population of Louisiana?


About 4.6 million


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 8, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> What's the population of Louisiana?











						Louisiana - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




This link lists the population of Louisiana (~4.6M).


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 8, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Louisiana - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...


LOL, yup, it sure does. I was a little under. that shows almost 4.7 million.


----------



## HTC (Apr 8, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 13141 confirmed infected --- 899 more
- 196 recovered --- 12 more
- 380 fatalities --- 35 more
- 104886 suspected cases --- 5516 more
- 128784 tests taken --- i think this is the total number of tests done in Portugal since this pandemic began
- 5903 waiting for test results --- 1461 more
- 24481 under watch from authorities --- 589 less
- 1211 hospitalized --- 31 more
- 245 in ICU --- *26 less*



rtwjunkie said:


> April 8, 2020 for Louisiana:
> 
> Deaths were up again,  *Number hospitalized decreased for 1st time, and number on ventilators decreased for 2nd day in a row.*



Unfortunately, there's another reason for being less people requiring ventilators due to COVID-19: if the number of new cases that require ventilators is smaller than daily deaths + those that recover enough to move OUT of ventilators, then there will be less people in need of ventilators in that day.

Portugal had it's 1st day with less people in ICU than the day before but, just like i explained, i think it's *WAY* *too soon* to celebrate.

Portugal's Senior Health Official is saying that *we may have peaked* but this is yet to be confirmed, needing several more days to be sure. I beg to differ: until we see the number of new cases being lower like Italy's have been, i think is premature to state this.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 8, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> LOL, yup, it sure does. I was a little under. that shows almost 4.7 million.


I asked because it appears that you have a high infection to population ratio when comparing the UK's, you're real positive is you have a much lower fatality rate which is the most important thing (IMO).  In the search to find positives in the UK, infection rate appears to be slowing and we hear today hospitalisations have dropped a fair bit, to the point that we are not at max ITU bed capacity currently although we were close last week before these super field hospitals started opening, one opens in my area on Friday with the potential to have 4000 beds but just 1000 initially, timely for what is believed to be our peak.


----------



## HTC (Apr 8, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I asked because it appears that you have a high infection to population ratio when comparing the UK's, you're real positive is you have a much lower fatality rate which is the most important thing (IMO).  In the search to find positives in the UK, infection rate appears to be slowing and we hear today hospitalisations have dropped a fair bit, to the point that *we are not at max ITU bed capacity currently although we were close last week before these super field hospitals started opening, one opens in my area on Friday with the potential to have 4000 beds but just 1000 initially*, timely for what is believed to be our peak.


This is something Italy lacked, i think, which is what exacerbated their problem: by the time they started thinking about doing these, their northen hospitals were already being overwhelmed.


----------



## trparky (Apr 9, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Yikes what?


That the numbers in Europe are that damn scary.


----------



## xBruce88x (Apr 9, 2020)

Georgia has hit a milestone, though not one to celebrate. 

Over 10,000 now... 10204. TBH I thought about posting a pic of Vegeta after it broke 9000, but decided that maybe it wouldn't be the best. 

Over 2000 hospitalized with 370 deaths. It's odd to think, that cases could be much higher. Especially in counties that don't even have a hospital!


----------



## Regeneration (Apr 9, 2020)

The numbers will not stop rising unless martial law is in place.

Complete lockdown everywhere. Make socializing a criminal offense.

 Force everyone to wear masks and gloves in public space.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 9, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I asked because it appears that you have a high infection to population ratio when comparing the UK's, you're real positive is you have a much lower fatality rate which is the most important thing (IMO).  In the search to find positives in the UK, infection rate appears to be slowing and we hear today hospitalisations have dropped a fair bit, to the point that we are not at max ITU bed capacity currently although we were close last week before these super field hospitals started opening, one opens in my area on Friday with the potential to have 4000 beds but just 1000 initially, timely for what is believed to be our peak.



Infected numbers is anyone's guess. The actual numbers are the big unknown and that is the answer everyone is really waiting for. Its also unique per country, because the measures have been taken staggered across the world and societies are simply different in every way.

Only when you can determine the actual death rate %, can you say anything meaningful about exit strategies from a lockdown. Without that number, your analysis is always going to be flawed. And until you can test a representative group on a larger scale, you won't be having that data.



Regeneration said:


> The numbers will not stop rising unless martial law is in place.
> 
> Complete lockdown everywhere. Make socializing a criminal offense.
> 
> Force everyone to wear masks and gloves in public space.



I think the reality we will be accepting soon, is that we know this is going to take a good few thousand lives every season and also in the off-seasons for usual flu until we have vaccination for it. Its going to be a number on top of influenza deaths, and pragmatism will move us towards the harsh calculation of keeping things under control for the ICU/healthcare capacity, and going about our business for as much as possible otherwise.

Martial law... not happening. Not here at least. Even with this rather brief, partial lockdown all sorts of other elements start weighing heavily. The economy, but also everything connected to it, is _also our social welfare_. No matter how you twist it, this will cost lives, and its going to be a choice of evils. But the effects of martial law are going to be counterproductive. People won't comply.

That is what governments around the world are moving towards right now and its going to happen. 'Intelligent' (for lack of a better word...) unlocking of societies, gradual and constantly checking whether this virus won't pop back up with a vengeance. As long as we can keep the infection rate across the board, below 1, the threat is manageable because exponential growth is then out of the equation.


----------



## HTC (Apr 9, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 13956 confirmed infected --- 815 more
- 205 recovered --- 9 more
- 409 fatalities --- 29 more
- 115158 suspected cases --- 10272 more
- 131127 tests taken --- 2343 more
- 3801 waiting for test results --- *2102 less*
- 24708 under watch from authorities --- 227 more
- 1173 hospitalized --- *38 less*
- 241 in ICU --- 4* less*

A bit encouraging, with fewer hospitalized and in ICU, even with a *huge reduction* in the number of those waiting for test results, but the newly confirmed cases still give me cause for concern. I'd wager it will take a few more days of this "trend" (NOT the new confirmed cases) to fully admit we've reached the peak: @ least *in MY opinion*.


----------



## Rahnak (Apr 9, 2020)

@HTC We have not peaked. Not when we have a couple thousand selfish morons that think their Easter holidays are more important than getting the number of infected as low as possible as fast as possible. Grocery stores were jam packed down south this morning. And some towns are acting like this is already over, with streets filled with people without a care in the world. I expect numbers to start going up again next week.


----------



## trparky (Apr 9, 2020)

Regeneration said:


> The numbers will not stop rising unless martial law is in place.
> 
> Complete lockdown everywhere. Make socializing a criminal offense.
> 
> Force everyone to wear masks and gloves in public space.


That would never be accepted in the United States, someone would be crying "Muh freedum!!!".


----------



## HTC (Apr 9, 2020)

Rahnak said:


> @HTC We have not peaked. *Not when we have a couple thousand selfish morons that think their Easter holidays are more important than getting the number of infected as low as possible as fast as possible.* Grocery stores were jam packed down south this morning. And some towns are acting like this is already over, with streets filled with people without a care in the world. I expect numbers to start going up again next week.


Undermining their government's efforts in slowing down this virus from getting a more significant "foothold" in the country: "moron" is too good a word to describe such individuals 

EDIT

Spotted this @ Anandtech forums:









						New Zealand sets sights on coronavirus elimination after 2 weeks of lockdown
					

New modeling shows there's a real chance of that happening.




					www.axios.com
				




This kind of approach is the one i'd like Portugal to have taken "from the get go".



> 1. *New Zealand's leadership took the threat seriously.  Their phrasing was "Go hard, and go early"*.
> 
> 2. They went into full lockdown mode & banned foreign visitors.
> 
> ...


----------



## trparky (Apr 9, 2020)

HTC said:


> Undermining their government's efforts in slowing down this virus from getting a more significant "foothold" in the country: "moron" is too good a word to describe such individuals


I've always said that the gene pool needed some chlorine. Maybe with these "morons" dying off the collective IQ of humanity will go up.


----------



## HTC (Apr 9, 2020)

trparky said:


> I've always said that the gene pool needed some chlorine. *Maybe with these "morons" dying off the collective IQ of humanity will go up*.


The bigger problem is how many innocent people these "morons" end up infecting before that ... they could end up causing many deaths, not to mention the country could be forced to have a longer than necessary time under lockdown as well


----------



## LFaWolf (Apr 9, 2020)

HTC said:


> Undermining their government's efforts in slowing down this virus from getting a more significant "foothold" in the country: "moron" is too good a word to describe such individuals
> 
> EDIT
> 
> ...



While I applaud the hard measures taken by New Zealand, thinking that the virus can be eliminated even in New Zealand will be very hard until we have either the vaccines or a cure. People can only be locked down for so long.


----------



## trparky (Apr 9, 2020)

I'm reminded of a comedy skit that Ron White did a number of years ago.


			
				Ron White said:
			
		

> You can't fix stupid. There's not a pill you can take. There's not a class you can go to. Stupid is forever!


You can cure ignorance, but you can't cure stupid.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 9, 2020)

LFaWolf said:


> While I applaud the hard measures taken by New Zealand, thinking that the virus can be eliminated even in New Zealand will be very hard until we have either the vaccines or a cure. People can only be locked down for so long.



This is the problem overall.  Without a vaccine, as soon as lockdowns are lifted and intercontinental travel resumes, we are going to be at point a all over again.


----------



## trparky (Apr 9, 2020)

HTC said:


> The bigger problem is how many innocent people these "morons" end up infecting before that


Those who are smart will be staying indoors, those who are stupid will spread it around and kill themselves off leaving the smart ones inside unaffected.


----------



## moproblems99 (Apr 9, 2020)

trparky said:


> Those who are smart will be staying indoors, those who are stupid will spread it around and kill themselves off leaving the smart ones inside unaffected.



You're forgetting they need to be elderly and/or have serious underlying health concerns.  Otherwise, they will be mostly fine.


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 9, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> You're forgetting they need to be elderly and/or have serious underlying health concerns.  Otherwise, they will be mostly fine.


For greater chances of death, sure... but catching and spreading it (what you quoted and responded to) doesnt discriminate. 


Edit: unrelated to above...this is not a map... but a statistic...

New York State now has more reported coronavirus cases than any country except the U.S. as a whole.


----------



## LFaWolf (Apr 9, 2020)

Interesting story. Does anyone know how many different strands of Covid-19 that we have now?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/most-york-coronavirus-cases-came-120729916.html


----------



## HTC (Apr 9, 2020)

LFaWolf said:


> While I applaud the hard measures taken by New Zealand, thinking that the virus can be eliminated even in New Zealand will be very hard until we have either the vaccines or a cure. People can only be locked down for so long.



Eliminated, no: @ least not until a vaccine is found and distributed.

However, *they can buy time* while they understand what does / doesn't work in mitigating the virus' progression, as well as participate in the worldwide effort to find any medication that @ least alleviates the symptoms of this virus.

When they release some of the current restrictions, they can still impose quarantine on all arrivals to the country, for example, or any other protective measures that, while less restrictive, still provide some protection.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 9, 2020)

Well, I'll just put this here...


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 9, 2020)

And on that note of staying on target:

April 9, 2020 for Louisiana-

This is the 3rd day in a row that ventilator numbers have gone down.

18,203 cases (17,030 yesterday)
702 deaths (652 yesterday) 
2,014 hospitalized (1,996 yesterday)
473 on ventilators (490 yesterday)  
86,919 tests have been conducted (81,406 yesterday)









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## flmatter (Apr 9, 2020)

235 for today here in Alaska.  7 deceased and 49 recovered.


----------



## xman2007 (Apr 10, 2020)

Nearly 1000 deaths a day in the UK at the moment and it has been steady between 700-900+ for a few days now, people are starting to think we have seen the worst of it and there are lots more cars on the roads, people sitting in parks with families like nothing is going on, people socialising with neighbours and friends and not observing social distancing, I mean if you have that attitude and they do, how many other people have you both been in close contact with, it's ridiculous. I don't think the UK is at the peak right now and if anything is at the start of a peak that will rise a lot higher with peoples blase attitudes towards this virus.


----------



## Caring1 (Apr 10, 2020)

Saw this live graph the other day, holy sheet.


			https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
		

I thought Italy had runaway numbers until the U.S. says hold my beer.
Scroll down until you see:
*How confirmed cases of coronavirus have spread*


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 10, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> Saw this live graph the other day, holy sheet.
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
> ...



You know how we need to be "#1" in everything...no matter how tragic


----------



## HTC (Apr 10, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 15472 confirmed infected --- 1516 more
- 233 recovered --- 28 more
- 435 fatalities --- 26 more
- 123564 suspected cases --- 8406 more
- 140863 tests taken --- 9736 more
- 4509 waiting for test results --- 708 more
- 25914 under watch from authorities --- 1206 more
- 1179 hospitalized --- 6 more
- 226 in ICU --- *15 less*

As i feared, we don't seem to have peaked @ all: highest number of new confirmed infected ever, and by a wide margin. Only good news is the smaller number of people in ICU but that can easily be explained by the fatalities in the last 24h, so no conclusion can come of it, for now.


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 10, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> Saw this live graph the other day, holy sheet.
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
> ...


Weve got the most. But note we also have ~6x the population, 60M vs 350M, vs Italy.


----------



## HTC (Apr 10, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Weve got the most. But note we also have ~6x the population, 60M vs 350M, vs Italy.


True, but while Italy is seeing their numbers grow less, with USA that's not happening, yet.

It's now taking Italy roughly 15 days to double their number of cases while it's taking USA roughly 9 days to do the same: this is because Italy's measures have begun to take effect a while back, which is why they are doubling their number of cases @ a much slower pace, while USA's measures have just starting having their effects "noticed", which is why the percentage of new cases has been dropping only very *slightly*.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 10, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Weve got the most. But note we also have ~6x the population, 60M vs 350M, vs Italy.



I think a more realistic, still grossly inaccurate comparison is the entire EU vs the US. You're just about to pass us by in that case... and I doubt this is over, the number is still exploding.


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 10, 2020)

I don't know how bad the situation is in USA, but it seems there are now a few good news around the world.

First an update from Denmark. Infected people are climbing, but far less than expected and for 9 days straight now people needed hospitalized or respirator has been going down or said with other words. Denmarks health care system is far from being overwhelmed and a few placed for Covic-19 patients has even been shut down as it seems there are no need for it. But not shut more down than they can be reopen If the virus somehow manage to go ballistic in cases again.

So ind sted Denmark has send some of the respirators we don't need know to help Italy and money with them to help them in more need.

Denmark is even after Easter beginning the first phase of reopening the country. First phase will be schools to reopened, next phase if the virus doesn't begin to climb again with infected, will be small business reopen like restaurants and threathers. Next phase is to be in beginning of May.

Status for Denmark is:
Total infected: 5819 (this number includes all, also who have recovered again)
Recovered: 1773
Hospitalized in critical state: 113
Dead: 247 mostly elderly with other health issues. But a few young people have been in hospital but not critical.
Active cases: 3800

So far it seems it is going the right way. Denmark whas fast enough to lock down the country and prevent Italy levels of infected

Also a few other European countries has reported to reopen after Easter or by end of April. Norway, Germany, island and even Italy is planning a reopening. Italy infected cases has been going down lately and so have other countries as well including Denmark. So it seems the virus has now peaked in many countries. Just that Denmark seems to have peaked already now is great as I and danish government expected the virus to first peak by end of April or beginning of May. But it seem the virus all ready now peaking 2-3 weeks before expected. This is great as this means Denmark and properly other countries can reopen faster than expected, still slowly and it will still takes weeks or perhaps months before many countries are fully open. But just that things seems to happen faster than expected is good news for people that want to go back to there normal life al throw that is still a good amount of time away yet. But if some countries can reopen faster it is also good news for the economy as the longer the lock down is, the more severe the damage is.

Also i think this gives hope for USA can over time get this virus under control all throw it seems hopeless now, but remember it also seems hopeless for Italy and they are now planning for reopen at the end of April, slowly opening off cause. All countries needs to open up slowly or else the virus will boom again. But what I am trying to say is that even the most plage country in Europe or Italy seems to have managed to get the virus some short of control now. This gives hope for USA i think to also get the virus under control.

But there are still hard times ahead as the world will only reopen slowly and that can still take months and a risk that the virus can return in fall/winter season (hopefully if that happens, we are by that time close to a vaccine) and after that, we all have a economy to recover, family's needs time to recover from lost members, lost jobs and companies going bankrupt. I have as well paid a price for this virus as I lost my job in marts and so far I have no idea on when in can get a new job, but properly not anytime soon.


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 10, 2020)

HTC said:


> True, but while Italy is seeing their numbers grow less, with USA that's not happening, yet.
> 
> It's now taking Italy roughly 15 days to double their number of cases while it's taking USA roughly 9 days to do the same: this is because Italy's measures have begun to take effect a while back, which is why they are doubling their number of cases @ a much slower pace, while USA's measures have just starting having their effects "noticed", which is why the percentage of new cases has been dropping only very *slightly*.


Correct. We're behind where they are in time by a couple of weeks...makes sense. For now, we still have way less infections per capita. We'll see how that shakes out over time.


----------



## trparky (Apr 10, 2020)

HTC said:


> True, but while Italy is seeing their numbers grow less, with USA that's not happening, yet.


But if you look at where most of the infections are happening you'd see that it's mainly taking place in large population centers like New York City, Chicago, and other such large cities where people are crammed in like sardines.

New York City, for instance, has 11 Million people crammed into 468.9 square miles. The density of the population makes it easy for things like this virus to run roughshod over the population. People mostly live in apartments where everyone in the apartment building breathes the same air supply that's cycled throughout the building, easy way for the virus to spread. And then you have the subways where people in New York City often stuff themselves in where you can't even move because everyone is shoulder-to-shoulder; again, easy way for the virus to spread. Why the mayor of New York City hasn't shut the whole of the subway system down I have no clue but he should have done that weeks ago, he could have saved the whole city a whole lot of heartache in doing so.

Other states, like my home state of Ohio, is showing good signs of squashing the curve. Some states are definitely doing better than others.


----------



## trparky (Apr 10, 2020)

There is a fundamental difference between how Japanese think and how the average United States citizen thinks. The average American believes in freedom, freedom, and freedom. Oh, and did I mention freedom? I think I did but I'm going to mention it again... Freedom.

In order to stop this kind of pandemic as fast as Japan did, we'd essentially have to enact Martial Law. Everyone is locked down, the houses boarded up, the military is in the streets, etc. That would never fly here in the US, we would instantly think that someone is trying to grab power for themselves and once the pandemic is over we'd worry if that person would give up that power. History has taught us that once a man has power very rarely do they give it up. We here in the US are very afraid of things like dictatorships due to how our country came about. We broke away from a tyrannical government back in 1776, namely Britain; we do not want to go back to that kind of thinking or governing even if it means saving lives. Freedom is first and foremost the most important idea on any American's mind.


----------



## ozkisses (Apr 10, 2020)

Thank you for trying to explain. 

I live in a country with more freedom than most as well. 

Good luck at this time and our thoughts are with you.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 10, 2020)

UK update:

Biggest climb in death rates today and the previous 2 days suggests that the estimated peak should be Sunday as thought, still alarming and difficult to come to terms with...…...



Daily19,116  Tests13,543   People tested5,706  Positive results980   DeathsTotal316,836256,60573,7588,958


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 10, 2020)

April 10, 2020 for Louisiana.

Ventilator usage and number hospitalized went slightly up today, ending the 2 days of going down we had.

19,253 cases (18,203 yesterday)
755 deaths (702 yesterday) 
2,054 hospitalized (2,014 yesterday)
479 on ventilators (473 yesterday)  
92,280 tests have been conducted (86,919 yesterday)









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## ARF (Apr 10, 2020)

The global population continues to rise by 2.6 people per second according to https://www.worldometers.info/

I haven't seen data that the total, I repeat the total number of deaths has increased since the beginning of the pandemic.

Keep in mind that stress from the lockdown can also negatively influence people's immune systems.
And the electromagnetic radiation which disturbs our healthy bodies.


----------



## trparky (Apr 10, 2020)

ARF said:


> Keep in mind that stress from the lockdown can also negatively influence people's immune systems.


I'm sitting here fine, though I do have to admit that having someone else external to me imposing a lifestyle that I myself already live on a daily basis feels... different.


----------



## HTC (Apr 10, 2020)

In a "flashback to the 70s and 80s", Portugal has "hijacked" a public TV channel and will start "tele-escola" (school via TV) this month: this is so that they can finish this school year as soon as possible, and they have cut short the usual exams required in some specific school years.

I'm old enough to remember this on TV, back then.

It's already under way the arrangements to have the full year available next school year as well, should the need arise.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 11, 2020)

Tomgang said:


> I don't know how bad the situation is in USA, but it seems there are now a few good news around the world.
> 
> First an update from Denmark. Infected people are climbing, but far less than expected and for 9 days straight now people needed hospitalized or respirator has been going down or said with other words. Denmarks health care system is far from being overwhelmed and a few placed for Covic-19 patients has even been shut down as it seems there are no need for it. But not shut more down than they can be reopen If the virus somehow manage to go ballistic in cases again.
> 
> ...



Situationen her i USA er utroligt dårlig takket være regeringens abysmalt langsomme reaktion tidligt, skønt mange statsledere har været fantastiske, herunder guvernøren for min stat.

Tak for opdateringen! Jeg har en ven i Danmark, der bekræfter den samme ting. Jeg håber inderligt, at dit land får en fuld bedring, ven. Bliv sikker, hold dig sund!


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 11, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Situationen her i USA er utroligt dårlig takket være regeringens abysmalt langsomme reaktion tidligt, skønt mange statsledere har været fantastiske, herunder guvernøren for min stat.
> 
> Tak for opdateringen! Jeg har en ven i Danmark, der bekræfter den samme ting. Jeg håber inderligt, at dit land får en fuld bedring, ven. Bliv sikker, hold dig sund!



Som situationen ser ud lige nu i Danmark, ser det lovende ud med af få bugt med virusen og vi kan begynde at genåbnet langsomt. Det kommer stadig til at tage nogle måneder før alt er genåbnet, men langsomt er nødvendigt, ellers vil virusen bare blomster op igen i løbet af få uger.

Enelig er jeg personligt mere bange for de økonomiske konsekvenser efter virusen. At hele verden lukker ned koster dyrt. Jeg er meget spændt på hvordan USA kommer gennem det her med nu 17 mio arbejdsløse og det vil formentlig stige endnu mere i nu og USA har jo heller ikke den samme hjælp med dagpenge som Danmark har, derfor kommer amerikanske borgere uden job med meget gæld i store problemer den kommende tid da hvad jeg har læst mig frem til at mange knap nok kan betale regninger hver måned som arbejdsløs.

Jeg mistede selv mit job i marts, men dagpenge system gør da jeg kan betale regningen m.m. En rum tid i nu.

Håner bare hele verden snart kan genåbne, men der går noget tid i nu inden alle lande kan åbne fuld op.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 11, 2020)

^^ English speaking forum please.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 11, 2020)

USA crossed half a million cases as of less than an hour ago.
152.64 cases per 100,000
5.69 deaths per 100,000

New York...is cautiously optimistic because ICU population has fallen:








						New York 'cautiously optimistic' with first daily drop in ICU COVID-19 patients
					

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Friday that the number of coronavirus patients in intensive care units across the state dropped in the last day, offering a glimmer of hope that the surge in critical care hospitalizations might be leveling off.




					www.reuters.com
				





Another milestone crossed yesterday: 100,000 dead globally:








						Global coronavirus death toll hits 100,000, cases over 1.6 million
					

The number of deaths linked to the novel coronavirus reached 100,000 on Friday, as the tally of cases passed 1.6 million, according to a Reuters tally.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 11, 2020)

UK just had its highest daily death total. Higher than any day Italy had. 980.


----------



## HTC (Apr 11, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:




- 15987 confirmed infected --- 515 more
- 266 recovered --- 33 more
- 470 fatalities --- 35 more
- 130300 suspected cases --- 6736 more
- 1551993 tests taken --- *over 1.4M more*????? Must be a typo!
- 3961 waiting for test results --- *548 less*
- 25432 under watch from authorities --- *482 less*
- 1175 hospitalized --- *4 less*
- 233 in ICU --- 7 more

A reduction in the number of new cases of over 1K, VS yesterday: very inconsistent the number of new cases in Portugal, as the following pic shows:


----------



## Devon68 (Apr 11, 2020)

> In a "flashback to the 70s and 80s", Portugal has "hijacked" a public TV channel and will start "tele-escola" (school via TV) this month: this is so that they can finish this school year as soon as possible, and they have cut short the usual exams required in some specific school years.


We have that right now. If i'm not mistaking all elementary school children have classes on weekdays on a few TV channels. 

We are in quarantine since March 23 and still the number of cases keep rising by 200 every day. 
My last post on this was on April 3rd when we had 1171 infected and 31 dead.
Now we have 3380 infected and 71 dead.
They say the next week should be critical.


----------



## P4-630 (Apr 11, 2020)

Devon68 said:


> We have that right now.



What country?


----------



## Devon68 (Apr 11, 2020)

> What country?


Serbia.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 11, 2020)

Devon68 said:


> We have that right now. If i'm not mistaking all elementary school children have classes on weekdays on a few TV channels.
> 
> We are in quarantine since March 23 and still the number of cases keep rising by 200 every day.
> My last post on this was on April 3rd when we had 1171 infected and 31 dead.
> ...


In general it takes up to 3 weeks before any useful analysis of the impact of a lockdown becomes known, it's a sad fact that if there is a positive impact then infection rates start to slow but death rates often rise until you reach a peak where things stabilise but peaks can last 2 - 3 weeks with still high fatalities before the curve for both infection rates and deaths lowers with any significance.  Obviously this can be different dependant on a number of factors such as population, culture and measures imposed by governments etc.

We have been on a fairly stringent lockdown also since 23rd March and it will be reviewed along with the stats later this coming week, unlike many, I am hoping for at least another 4- 6 weeks before any relaxation but in fairness I am not really directly affected by the economic pressures that lockdowns bring so it's easier for me to say that, I appreciate that many feel differently.


----------



## HTC (Apr 11, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> *In general it takes up to 3 weeks before any useful analysis of the impact of a lockdown becomes known*, it's a sad fact that if there is a positive impact then infection rates start to slow but death rates often rise until you reach a peak where things stabilise but peaks can last 2 - 3 weeks with still high fatalities before the curve for both infection rates and deaths lowers with any significance.  Obviously this can be different dependant on a number of factors such as population, culture and measures imposed by governments etc.
> 
> We have been on a fairly stringent lockdown also since 23rd March and it will be reviewed along with the stats later this coming week, unlike many, I am hoping for at least another 4- 6 weeks before any relaxation but in fairness I am not really directly affected by the economic pressures that lockdowns bring so it's easier for me to say that, I appreciate that many feel differently.


Italy's lockdown is the "oldest" one besides China and, though the percentage daily increase is falling, it's still rising with over 4K cases per day.

Something's not right: with their lockdown measures, new cases should have dropped to @ most hundreds per day, not thousands.

This virus is being transmitted by something *OTHER* than what we currently know: it's the only thing that makes sense to me.


----------



## trparky (Apr 11, 2020)

HTC said:


> This virus is being transmitted by something *OTHER* than what we currently know: it's the only thing that makes sense to me.


Please don't give me any more nightmare fuel, I have enough supply of that.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 11, 2020)

HTC said:


> Italy's lockdown is the "oldest" one besides China and, though the percentage daily increase is falling, it's still rising with over 4K cases per day.
> 
> Something's not right: with their lockdown measures, new cases should have dropped to @ most hundreds per day, not thousands.
> 
> This virus is being transmitted by something *OTHER* than what we currently know: it's the only thing that makes sense to me.


I think like most places with high populations (New York, London, Rome & Milan), in the main it's the "so called" essential workers, I say so called only because there appears to be a lot of them that aren't and they all crowd public transport during rush hours with standing room only with no room or spacing and touching each other still, then when they finish work they go back home to the suburbs and increase the risk of infection there.

I have a friend that works for a utility company so he is an essential worker but he is not simply because all he does is electronically read people's water meter's so the company can send us a bill, if he was maintenance fixing leaks etc then fine but there are loads of un-essential workers working here and at a guess most other places too.

Edit:  This is a pic of a London Underground train during the rush hour last week, all of course essential workers  ...……………….


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 11, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> ^^ English speaking forum please.



Ah sorry

This article may be of interest to people wanting to know about countries starts to reopen. My own country Denmark is one of the countries in this article. So I do feel a little special and proud that a little country like Denmark can be one of the first to start reopen. This is still a slow and long reopen how ever that can take a few months before we are fully open and that is off cause given that the virus doesn't make a come back.

Read the article here for those of interest. It is in English.









						These countries are reopening after coronavirus -- here's how they're doing it | CNN
					

Certain countries in Europe -- Germany, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Austria and Norway -- are beginning to ease their coronavirus restrictions. How have they got to this point and what lies ahead?




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## HTC (Apr 11, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I think like most places with high populations (New York, London, Rome & Milan), in the main it's the "so called" essential workers, I say so called only because there appears to be a lot of them that aren't and they all crowd public transport during rush hours with standing room only with no room or spacing and touching each other still, then when they finish work they go back home to the suburbs and increase the risk of infection there.
> 
> I have a friend that works for a utility company so he is an essential worker but he is not simply because all he does is electronically read people's water meter's so the company can send us a bill, if he was maintenance fixing leaks etc then fine but there are loads of un-essential workers working here and at a guess most other places too.
> 
> ...


It's quite possible ... judging by that pic alone ...

Meanwhile, i though of another possibility: what if the incubation period *can be* much LONGER than we think?


----------



## Caring1 (Apr 11, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Edit:  This is a pic of a London Underground train during the rush hour last week, all of course essential workers  ...……………….
> 
> 
> View attachment 151190


And not a mask in sight, despite London having a high occurance of the virus and mortality.



HTC said:


> It's quite possible ... judging by that pic alone ...
> 
> Meanwhile, i though of another possibility: what if the incubation period *can be* much LONGER than we think?


Another possibilty is people can be carriers without showing symptoms, as has happened multiple times in the past.


----------



## trparky (Apr 11, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> And not a mask in sight, despite London having a high occurance of the virus and mortality.


Are these people stupid?


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 12, 2020)

Kremlin warns of huge influx of Moscow patients as coronavirus toll climbs
					

The Kremlin said on Saturday a "huge influx" of coronavirus patients was beginning to put a strain on hospitals in Moscow as Russia's death toll rose to more than 100.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 12, 2020)

HTC said:


> Something's not right: with their lockdown measures, new cases should have dropped to @ most hundreds per day, not thousands.


It does show one thing clearly: The lockdown isn't working and this is being witnessed elsewhere in the world as well.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 12, 2020)

Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve
					

The number of COVID-19 cases around the world continues to grow, but each country has a different infection trajectory. This chart tells the story.




					www.visualcapitalist.com
				



Looks like they're all flattening or maintaining to me.


----------



## HTC (Apr 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> It does show one thing clearly: The lockdown isn't working and this is being witnessed elsewhere in the world as well.


It *IS* working: just not as well as expected.



FordGT90Concept said:


> Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve
> 
> 
> The number of COVID-19 cases around the world continues to grow, but each country has a different infection trajectory. This chart tells the story.
> ...



Wrong log scale in that graph: it should be 2 instead of 10.

It's multiplying by 10 fold each horizontal line when it should "just" double. Why, you may ask? Because it's closer to the R-0 value of this virus as well as being an easier to follow graph. It would also show a "flatter" curve, better depicting the efforts the various countries have made thus far.

EDIT

In such a graph, anything over 45º inclination and the steps taken thus far aren't enough while anything below 45º inclination and the steps are taking effect to curb down the spread. Obviously, the lower the angle, the better the country is tackling the "problem".


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 12, 2020)

HTC said:


> It *IS* working: just not as well as expected.


Marginally at best. There are several major aspects to this virus which make isolation ineffectual to it's transmission: 1. It travels through the air and can do so for a considerable distance. 2. It can survive in water micro-droplets for days when not in direct sunlight and for hours in direct sunlight. 3. The estimates of incubation period are proving to be far more varied that previously thought. The virus can stay in a persons system for up to 2 months before any symptoms arise. 4. Person to person transmission is preventable but takes proper education of the populace, which was not done.

If the world's populace had been warned AND educated about proper, effective personal hygiene, the numbers would be much lower. Isolation is NOT the answer. Proper personal hygiene and PPE is.


----------



## HTC (Apr 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Marginally at best. There are several major aspects to this virus which make isolation ineffectual to it's transmission: 1. It travels through the air and can do so for a considerable distance. 2. It can survive in water micro-droplets for days when not in direct sunlight and for hours in direct sunlight. 3. The estimates of incubation period are proving to be far more varied that previously thought. *The virus can stay in a persons system for up to 2 months before any symptoms arise.* 4. Person to person transmission is preventable but takes proper education of the populace, which was not done.
> 
> If the world's populace had been warned AND educated about proper, effective personal hygiene, the numbers would be much lower. *Isolation is NOT the answer. Proper personal hygiene and PPE is.*


2 months? Source, please?

I'd say both measures @ the same time can produce the best results, as soon as possible. I do agree the populace in general should be better educated, regarding this.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 12, 2020)

HTC said:


> 2 months? Source, please?


I can't post that as it was an internal memo and confidential. However, that info will be made pubic once the study is complete. The original estimates and information was based on a study of 108 patients observed between Jan 4th to Feb 24th. It was a small sample size and other, ongoing studies, are showing new data. Because of where I work, we are given advisories based on information collected but not made public yet.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Proper personal hygiene and PPE is.


There isn't enough for front line workers, never mind entire populations.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 12, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> There isn't enough for front line workers, never mind entire populations.


True. It's an oversight that needs attention and better planning in future.


----------



## oobymach (Apr 12, 2020)

Just saw this on facebook, seems like we've reached this stage.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Marginally at best. There are several major aspects to this virus which make isolation ineffectual to it's transmission: 1.* It travels through the air and can do so for a considerable distance*. 2. It can survive in water micro-droplets for days when not in direct sunlight and for hours in direct sunlight. 3. The estimates of incubation period are proving to be far more varied that previously thought. The virus can stay in a persons system for up to 2 months before any symptoms arise. 4. Person to person transmission is preventable but takes proper education of the populace, which was not done.
> 
> If the world's populace had been warned AND educated about proper, effective personal hygiene, the numbers would be much lower. Isolation is NOT the answer. Proper personal hygiene and PPE is.


That is not the information I am hearing from leading experts, it travels in droplets and therefore they are heavier than air so there is no "floating" in the air.... you sneeze, it heads towards the ground and/or rests upon a surface on it's way.

Just to add to my earlier comment on lockdowns and overcrowded public transport, aside from that there is also some thinking that a proportion of people in lockdown may well be getting infected whilst shopping in Supermarkets, for those people who are adhering faithfully to a lockdown but still end up infected, essential shopping is one of the few ways that they could/would get infected.


----------



## sepheronx (Apr 12, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Kremlin warns of huge influx of Moscow patients as coronavirus toll climbs
> 
> 
> The Kremlin said on Saturday a "huge influx" of coronavirus patients was beginning to put a strain on hospitals in Moscow as Russia's death toll rose to more than 100.
> ...


They are finishing up a medical center just for covid-19 in Moscow. Up to 1,300 beds.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 12, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> That is not the information I am hearing from leading experts, it travels in droplets and therefore they are heavier than air so there is no "floating" in the air.... you sneeze, it heads towards the ground and/or rests upon a surface on it's way.


That is true, but the virus can exist in micro-droplets as well. It is carried out of a persons exhaling breath and can exist in the surrounding air currents for several meters. Anyone walking through that exhaled breath runs the risk of contracting the suspended virus micro-droplets when inhaled. Such a risk is low but still present as it only takes one virus strain to begin an infection. This is not paranoia, it's physics, plain and simple. A virus is a very small thing and can easily exist in microscopic volumes of water, such as the vapors exhaled from a persons breath. Virus epidemiology is a very complex science process. However, this particular aspect of it is well known and studied. Persistence rates can vary from virus to virus but it is generally accepted that a viral infection can be transmitted via the water vapor in a persons exhaled breath.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 12, 2020)

It does seem odd, I know we have talked about climates and how they may affect the virus and it's spread, but when you look at the maps and pinpoint specific areas it is clear that the further West you go the much more significant the outbreak both in terms of those infected and fatalities, obviously populations play a huge part but nonetheless there are massive population areas in Asia and the Middle East with arguably much more challenging healthcare systems that appear to have neither the spread or the fatalities...… yet.









						Microsoft Bing COVID-19 Tracker
					

Track confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the globe with Bing




					www.bing.com


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 12, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> yet.


This is a key point. Time will, of course, tell. I personally raise an eyebrow to the numbers being reported from China. They started plausible, but then just suddenly plateaued and fell off. This is not consistent with known virus progression trends. I suspect that something is amiss. But then again Korea, Japan, Taiwan and other nations in that area of the world have seemingly brought it under control.


----------



## P4-630 (Apr 12, 2020)

COVID-19 map of The Netherlands






						Hier slaat het coronavirus in Nederland toe (kaart)
					

Het coronavirus grijpt om zich heen in Nederland. De brandhaard ligt in Noord-Brabant, maar ook elders in het land duiken steeds meer besmettingen op.




					www.telegraaf.nl


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 12, 2020)

Manhattan is 8th in the world for population density and wealthy enough to widespread test for the virus.  Port-au-Prince, which has similar population density but a limited ability to test for the virus.








						List of cities proper by population density - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				



I think that cross between wealth and density is the reason why Manhattan exploded.

The mystery is Philippines.  They have four cities more dense than Manhattan, not a great deal of wealth, but get supported by USA.  Logic dictates they should have four hotspots exploding similar to NYC but they don't...yet...and the reason might be as simple as NYC being the trade hub of the world.  NYC probably has all of the main genotypes of the virus bouncing around in it because it accepts goods and people from everywhere.

...it might be coming for Philippines.  Headline as of 2 hours ago:








						Philippines reports highest single-day death toll from coronavirus
					

Philippines has temporarily barred doctors, nurses from leaving for work overseas




					gulfnews.com
				





...also, NYC was really late to lockdown.  The governor made the mayor do it.


----------



## HTC (Apr 12, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 16585 confirmed infected --- 598 more
- 277 recovered --- 11 more
- 504 fatalities --- 34 more
- 136243 suspected cases --- 5943 more
- 162798 tests taken --- like i thought, yesterday's number was a typo
- 3611 waiting for test results --- *350 less*
- 25041 under watch from authorities --- *391 less*
- 1177 hospitalized --- 2 more
- 228 in ICU --- *5 less*

Portugal's Government and President have decided to release nearly 16% of it's prisoners from jails, depending on specific criteria, in an effort to avoid mass spreading in prisons because prisons don't have the capability to enact distancing between prisoners and guards due to the nature of the place. So far, only one prisoner has been confirmed infected, and has since recovered, but there have been several guards that have tested positive already.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 12, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Manhattan is 8th in the world for population density and wealthy enough to widespread test for the virus.  Port-au-Prince, which has similar population density but a limited ability to test for the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think using common sense you can see the influentional factors. Primarily you have travel. Second - trade, then third - cultural/geographical. If a single person came to a village of extreme poverty, with little chance of far-ranging travel, the virus has few paths to exploit. But take that infected individual to London, New York, Madrid, Paris etc, and you have the possibility for a massive spread, with huge exposure levels, busy commutes and social crowding.

Tourism and business travel also explains vast discrepancies in global exposure. I'm amazed it's actually reached so far. One rationale for Italy is (I think documented somewhere - source required) a ski resort had an outbreak close to the initial spread in Italy. Those eurozone travellers brought it to their own countries, France in particular. From experience of friends, folk who like skiing holidays, travel a lot. Its that sort of mechanic that helps define the weird expansion, perhaps why some places are so late to the party. But hey, when you get the invite, the party starts jumping, as it were.


----------



## HTC (Apr 12, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> [...]
> Tourism and business travel also explains vast discrepancies in global exposure. I'm amazed it's actually reached so far. *One rationale for Italy is (I think documented somewhere - source required) a ski resort had an outbreak close to the initial spread in Italy. Those eurozone travellers brought it to their own countries*, France in particular. From experience of friends, folk who like skiing holidays, travel a lot. Its that sort of mechanic that helps define the weird expansion, perhaps why some places are so late to the party. But hey, when you get the invite, the party starts jumping, as it were.


Not 100% certain but it's believed that's how it got to Portugal: Portuguese people had vacation in Italy and, when they returned, they brought the virus with them. From then on, it spread locally.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 12, 2020)

The genotype mapping also linked a Brazilian case to Italy's strain.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 13, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Tourism and business travel also explains vast discrepancies in global exposure. I'm amazed it's actually reached so far. *One rationale for Italy is (I think documented somewhere - source required) a ski resort had an outbreak close to the initial spread in Italy. Those eurozone travellers brought it to their own countries*, France in particular.



I'm a subscriber to The Local: Denmark (they also have versions for Sweden, Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain and Switzerland), a sort of online newspaper that tells Danish news in English (though I can read Dansk fairly well), and that's exactly how the virus came to Denmark. A man, his wife and their two children had been on holiday to a ski resort in Northern Italy. A while later, the man fell ill (at the time of the article's printing, he was the only one who had it, his wife and kids were clear) and was later determined to have COVID-19 that they were able to trace back to the ski resort. I don't think he was "patient zero" for COVID in Denmark, but it did get going after that as Danes returned from ski trips and whatnot.


----------



## repman244 (Apr 13, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Marginally at best. There are several major aspects to this virus which make isolation ineffectual to it's transmission: 1. It travels through the air and can do so for a considerable distance. 2. It can survive in water micro-droplets for days when not in direct sunlight and for hours in direct sunlight. 3. The estimates of incubation period are proving to be far more varied that previously thought. The virus can stay in a persons system for up to 2 months before any symptoms arise. 4. Person to person transmission is preventable but takes proper education of the populace, which was not done.
> 
> If the world's populace had been warned AND educated about proper, effective personal hygiene, the numbers would be much lower. Isolation is NOT the answer. Proper personal hygiene and PPE is.



This.
I saw an article about the studies in China, where they found certain people which made a full recovery after getting the virus, but transmitted it even 1 month after that.

The lockdown is ok just to prevent the initial rapid rise (and to maybe educate people), but long term as I see it now is completely useless - we will not get rid of this virus, not like this.
My country put a mild lockdown quite early so we never saw exponential growth, but the virus spread in the elderly homes the most, and it still is since nobody employed more strict measures for it.
So now you have a situation where the government is financing people/companies which are impacted by the lockdown, but the highest number of infections is in the elderly homes - this to me is mindblowing.

The funding should go entirely towards protecting the older population and protective equipment - and it should not be used by the general public for shopping like it is now. I guess Sweden got it right, just now I read an article where the death rate and the number of infections is dropping despite having no lockdown. So like you said, education and proper hygiene play the biggest part here and the number of people that respect that.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 13, 2020)

repman244 said:


> This.
> I saw an article about the studies in China, where they found certain people which made a full recovery after getting the virus, but transmitted it even 1 month after that.
> 
> The lockdown is ok just to prevent the initial rapid rise (and to maybe educate people), but long term as I see it now is completely useless - we will not get rid of this virus, not like this.
> ...



I think you might very well be on to something for a long term / mid term solution here. A mix of strict protection of the elderly along with better personal hygiene (and maybe even some distancing / crowding limitations where possible, but nothing too strict like now) might very well be sufficient.

Even then, we would be looking at an infection rate that is high. Hopefully it is at or below 1. If that is the case, this looks like a best case scenario going forward until vaccination is available. This also means massed events won't be happening anytime soon. You will be having contact with limited numbers of people at any time. It also means we accept that people get infected, and that we treat them as best we can; this means the elderly will be at increased risk in any case.

This is really awesome - you can probably read past the Dutch. It shows different models for how and when lockdowns were effectuated and released.






						Hoe gaan we de pandemiepuzzel oplossen?
					

Hoe zijn we eigenlijk in deze ‘intelligente lockdown’ beland en, belangrijker nog, hoe komen we daar de komende maanden stap voor stap weer uit?




					www.volkskrant.nl


----------



## HTC (Apr 13, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 16934 confirmed infected --- 349 more
- 277 recovered --- no change
- 535 fatalities --- 31 more
- 139184 suspected cases --- 2941 more
- 163616 tests taken --- 818 more
- 3264 waiting for test results --- *347 less*
- 26989 under watch from authorities --- 1948 more
- 1187 hospitalized --- 10 more
- 188 in ICU --- *40 less*

Low number of new cases plus significant decrease in number of those in ICU: hope it's a trend ...


----------



## repman244 (Apr 13, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> I think you might very well be on to something for a long term / mid term solution here. A mix of strict protection of the elderly along with better personal hygiene (and maybe even some distancing / crowding limitations where possible, but nothing too strict like now) might very well be sufficient.
> 
> Even then, we would be looking at an infection rate that is high. Hopefully it is at or below 1. If that is the case, this looks like a best case scenario going forward until vaccination is available. This also means massed events won't be happening anytime soon. You will be having contact with limited numbers of people at any time. It also means we accept that people get infected, and that we treat them as best we can; this means the elderly will be at increased risk in any case.
> 
> ...



I think nobody should count on vaccination, It could come 2 years from now or never. 

I really hope Germany, Austria and Denmark start with easing the restrictions - hopefully others will follow (my country included). 
Hopefully most of the people got the message in these past few weeks and will continue to follow the few simple rules in the future.


----------



## trparky (Apr 13, 2020)

repman244 said:


> I think nobody should count on vaccination, It could come 2 years from now or never.


It will come but not as soon as many of us are hoping though. We have flu vaccines, there's no suggestions that we can't make a vaccine for this. Just be prepared for the idea that it will be more than a few months until it's ready.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 14, 2020)

Brazil likely has 12 times more coronavirus cases than official count, study finds
					

Brazil likely has 12 times more cases of the new coronavirus than are being officially reported by the government, with too little testing and long waits to confirm the results, according to a study released on Monday.




					www.reuters.com
				




A (really long) comic about the problems of modeling COVID-19 spread/mortality:








						A Comic Strip Tour Of The Wild World Of Pandemic Modeling
					

Check out all the latest coronavirus polling we’ve collected.




					fivethirtyeight.com
				






trparky said:


> It will come but not as soon as many of us are hoping though. We have flu vaccines, there's no suggestions that we can't make a vaccine for this. Just be prepared for the idea that it will be more than a few months until it's ready.


Influenza strikes every year.  It's a good risk/reward investment with a lot of opportunities for trial and error.  SARS-CoV-2?  Not so much.  By the time a vaccine shows promise, there may be enough global herd immunity that there's no longer a market for it.

Influenza vaccines are also only mildly effective.  They attempt to predict what genotype will become dominate and create vaccines for that genotype.  Bad years are when they guess wrong (like this flu season).  Good years are when they guess right.

Influenza has been around as long as homo sapiens have.  SARS-CoV-2 isn't even a year old.

There may never be a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.  Be ready for that possibility.

Edit: Vaccines available today took 10-15 years to develop:





						Vaccine Development, Testing, and Regulation
					

Systems for developing and testing vaccines emerged after the 19th century, when many vaccines began to be used. The current system for developing, testing, and regulating vaccines developed during the 20th century as the groups involved standardized their procedures and regulations.




					www.historyofvaccines.org


----------



## sepheronx (Apr 14, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Brazil likely has 12 times more coronavirus cases than official count, study finds
> 
> 
> Brazil likely has 12 times more cases of the new coronavirus than are being officially reported by the government, with too little testing and long waits to confirm the results, according to a study released on Monday.
> ...


Many are testing possible vaccines in coming months (June from one university I read). I wouldnt be so quick to say never.  Maybe I'm an optimist.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (Apr 14, 2020)

sepheronx said:


> Many are testing possible vaccines in coming months (June from one university I read). I wouldnt be so quick to say never.  Maybe I'm an optimist.



No, you're actually correct about that. Even as we speak, there are various trials taking place around the world testing potential treatments for COVID-19. And a vaccine is already been fast tracked. Normally, a great deal of testing and trials have to be conducted before getting FDA approval. The whole process takes years (things go wrong, etc.). But there are reports that a vaccine for COVID-19 could come within a year if results are promising and side effects are minimal. 

https://time.com/5819887/coronavirus-vaccines-development-who/ 

From the article it says, _"Progress is occurring at unprecedented speed in developing vaccines as the infectious pathogen looks unlikely to be stamped out through containment measures alone. The drug industry is hoping to compress the time it takes to get a vaccine to market — usually about 10 to 15 years — to within the next year." _


----------



## erocker (Apr 14, 2020)

With the amount of money on the line, they'll definitely be fast tracking vaccines. They'll get here pretty quickly though that doesn't mean I'm optimistic about how well they'll work.


----------



## sepheronx (Apr 14, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> No, you're actually correct about that. Even as we speak, there are various trials taking place around the world testing potential treatments for COVID-19. And a vaccine is already been fast tracked. Normally, a great deal of testing and trials have to be conducted before getting FDA approval. The whole process takes years (things go wrong, etc.). But there are reports that a vaccine for COVID-19 could come within a year if results are promising and side effects are minimal.
> 
> https://time.com/5819887/coronavirus-vaccines-development-who/
> 
> From the article it says, _"Progress is occurring at unprecedented speed in developing vaccines as the infectious pathogen looks unlikely to be stamped out through containment measures alone. The drug industry is hoping to compress the time it takes to get a vaccine to market — usually about 10 to 15 years — to within the next year." _



Someone who I talk with in my grandparents home country works close in the medical field.  They are testing right now but didn't specify how.  He mentioned though testing on people voluntarily will begin in June.  So I keep my hopes up.  Thank you for link.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 14, 2020)

erocker said:


> With the amount of money on the line, they'll definitely be fast tracking vaccines. They'll get here pretty quickly though that doesn't mean I'm optimistic about how well they'll work.


Yeah, the fear is that whatever is thrown out there initially may only partially solve the problem, meanwhile Tatty will sit at home with his Paracetamol and Whiskey and try to ride it out, not convinced about this herd immunity thing either, there appears to be verified cases of a few that have caught it twice (Japan, Taiwan I think), the "guess" is that the first time it battered some's immune system so hard that 4 - 6 weeks later there was just not enough antibody strength to fight effectively a new attack, if that were the case it may well be that the herd thing does work providing immune systems have enough time to recover sufficiently, whatever sufficiently is for each individual...…. at this point just speculation.


----------



## HTC (Apr 14, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:




- 17448 confirmed infected --- 514 more
- 347 recovered --- 70 more
- 567 fatalities --- 32 more
- 142514 suspected cases --- 3330 more
- 182707 tests taken --- 19091 more
- 2474 waiting for test results --- *790 less*
- 23265 under watch from authorities --- *3274 less*
- 1227 hospitalized --- 40 more
- 218 in ICU --- 30 more



HTC said:


> Low number of new cases plus significant decrease in number of those in ICU: hope it's a trend ...



It wasn't a trend 

Something wrong with tests taken number because there's a great deal of inconsistency: yesterday with under 1K increase and today with over 19K increase. Still, the number of those waiting for test results has been dropping consistently.

Our Finance Minister is estimating a trimester drop in GDP of roughly 20%, corresponding to a 6.5% year drop in GDP, and that's assuming a "good scenario" and ease of restrictions soon. FMI isn't "as optimistic" regarding our year GDP drop, with 8%.


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 15, 2020)

New map that will drill down to county level for US...









						COVID-19 United States Cases by County - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

Johns Hopkins U.S. County Level COVID-19 Tracking Map




					coronavirus.jhu.edu


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 15, 2020)

Japan has officially lost it, they're forced to ramp up countermeasures:








						Japan urges citizens to isolate as reports warn of 400,000 deaths
					

Japan urged its citizens on Wednesday to stay home, as media reports warned that as many as 400,000 of them could die of the coronavirus without urgent action, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came under pressure to hand out more cash.




					www.reuters.com
				






EarthDog said:


> New map that will drill down to county level for US...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Change to "Confirmed by Population" at the bottom.  That's where they're failing to contain it.  Southern Georgia is a surprise.  I think it was caused by this event:








						Days After a Funeral in a Georgia Town, Coronavirus ‘Hit Like a Bomb’ (Published 2020)
					

A mourner came to Albany, Ga., to attend the funeral of a retired janitor. After a pause while the infections incubated, the virus swept through the community.




					www.nytimes.com
				



Because they're not very population dense and because those infected were asymptomatic, it spread far and wide before anyone realized there was an outbreak.


The county close to me, Sioux Falls, has a similar story: outbreak at a food processing plant and no one knew:


			https://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2020/04/13/smithfield-closes-sioux-falls-pork-plant.html
		


There's a hotspot that stands out like a sore thumb in Kansas: Coffey county.  Why?  Nursing home outbreak (responsible for at least 24 or 41 cases to date):








						Coffey County Health Officer explains coronavirus outbreak at Burlington nursing home
					

BURLINGTON, Kan. (KSNT) – Coffey County’s top health official sat down with KSNT News on Tuesday to discuss the coronavirus outbreak connected to a Burlington nursing home. There are 24…




					www.ksnt.com
				




Tiny lapses in quarantine and all hell breaks loose.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 15, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Japan has officially lost it, they're forced to ramp up countermeasures:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


With only 8100 confirmed infections and 146 confirmed fatalities, 400,000 projected deaths is just a wee bit of an over-estimation and over-reaction...


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 15, 2020)

If you haven't looked at this, I recommend you do:


FordGT90Concept said:


> A (really long) comic about the problems of modeling COVID-19 spread/mortality:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They always model for the assumption no additional government action is taken; hence, Japan is now inclined to do more even if the numbers are completely off.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 15, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> If you haven't looked at this, I recommend you do:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Seems I missed that post. A lot of real good points there.


----------



## HTC (Apr 15, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 18091 confirmed infected --- 643 more
- 383 recovered --- 36 more
- 599 fatalities --- 32 more
- 150804 suspected cases --- 8290 more
- 191680 tests taken --- 8973 more
- 4060 waiting for test results --- 1586 more
- 26144 under watch from authorities --- 2879 more
- 1200 hospitalized --- *27 less*
- 208 in ICU --- *10 less*

The number of cases in Portugal continue to rise but the curve doesn't seem to be exponential, which is the only good thing i can say about it.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 15, 2020)

HTC said:


> - 1200 hospitalized --- *27 less*
> - 208 in ICU --- *10 less*


I gave your comment a like because of the above. Seems like progress.


----------



## HTC (Apr 15, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I gave your comment a like because of the above. Seems like progress.


Unfortunately, it isn't consistent: just look @ the previous day: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/post-4243549


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 15, 2020)

HTC said:


> Unfortunately, it isn't consistent: just look @ the previous day: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/post-4243549


I know, but any progress is good progress IMHO.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 15, 2020)

Any curve flattening is progress, we're seeing hospitalized counts go down now and deaths only a very mild decline. It plateaud clearly, hopefully the downward trend holds.

Though all info so far does look grim, in the sense that this will be with us for a looong time if not indefinitely. It just pops right back up once people get together again... not pretty.

Death count NL




IC count:


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 15, 2020)

UK update 15 April:



Daily15,994   Tests  4,605     Positive   761  DeathsTotal398,91698,47612,868


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 15, 2020)

BTW, did you catch this yet...






						Science | AAAS
					






					science.sciencemag.org
				




Yikes


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 15, 2020)

Crazy. That paper is already massively outdated for stats--which says a lot about the virus. It says 1/2 million cases.... it's now 2 million. 60k deaths is now 126,000. Thats in about two-three weeks. This virus is way more problematic than many people had suggested. In the UK, it now accounts for 1 in 5 deaths. That's absolutely enormous.


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 15, 2020)

A little update from Denmark.

Tuesday this week, government officially begins to retract restrictions. Schools from 0 to 5 class has reopened today some later in this week also health care has so much headroom that normal operation will start up again that has else been shut down to insure enough capacity to covid-19 patients and the virus has so low infected people and health care is so low on critical patients, that we can open up more than just schools and normal health care already. What to open more I first know by tomorrow throw.

For those that know what RO is when we talk about virus. Here are numbers from Denmark. Before lock down RO whas 2.4 means for every person infected, this person infected 2.4 other people. Today I am happy to say that thanks to Danish government reasonable quick response to lock down and most people taking it seriously and good at keeping distance, RO are now 0.6 and below 1, the virus will die out eventually. According to danish serums Institute even with the reopen of school's and some other things I don't know yet, they believe RO can still be keept around 0.8 as long we still keep distance. So even with reopen, we shut over time see virus die out. How long that will take i don't know. Also there are a rist that the virus will go over RO 1 and we might have to put in some restrictions again. Only time can tell how it will end.

But so far it's looking good for Denmark against the virus. So the virus has peaked 2-3 weeks before originally believed and not only that it is also at a much lower rate of infected and we can already now open up for more much sooner that expected and even some danish doctors are very surprised by the outcome so far.

Infected people in total including dead and recovered are 6680.
Dead are 309.
Recovered are 2748
People in critical condition including in respirator are down to only 89 and far from health care max capacity.

It goes so well that I am hornestly more concerned about how much danish economy is hurt by the virus. Also how much the rest of the world's economy is hurt.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 16, 2020)

A in-depth look at how the virus spread in China (two cases of "superspeaders" and how the virus progressed from province to province):








						How coronavirus hitched a ride through China
					

The early cases of COVID-19 and how it spread to every corner of China




					graphics.reuters.com
				




One person, who got it from someone without any symptoms, started a chain reaction infecting 560 people:


> Another well known cluster was linked to *Mr. Wu, a 74-year-old* resident of Dongyang in the eastern province of Zhejiang, *who began having regular contact from Jan. 16 with an unidentified individual who had recently returned home from Wuhan but would later be confirmed an asymptomatic carrier.*
> 
> Before his symptoms appeared on Jan. 22, Mr. Wu rode several buses and met a wide range of people.
> 
> ...


He infected his wife, his daughter (whom infected her son), his sister, and his brother in law (whom infected their son).


----------



## HTC (Apr 16, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 18841 confirmed infected --- 750 more
- 493 recovered --- 110 more
- 629 fatalities --- 30 more
- 154727 suspected cases --- 3923 more
- 208314 tests taken --- 16634 more
- 3910 waiting for test results --- *150 less*
- 26065 under watch from authorities --- *79 less*
- 1302 hospitalized --- 102 more
- 229 in ICU --- 21 more

A decent jump in the number of recovered: only good news of the day


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 16, 2020)

UK update 16th April

I suppose the good news is, Critical care is nowhere near capacity, infection rates are down and finally  we are below R1 which for those that don't know means that the average person to person spread is below 1 infection per infected person, we started in the early stages at 3, went into lockdown when that rose to 5 so it shows that Lockdown is/has worked although it has also been announced today that we will remain in lockdown for a further 3 weeks.  Death rates sadly can take up to 5 days to catch up and therefore slow significantly.


Daily18,665  tests13,839  people tested (does not include re-tests)4,618  tested positive861 deathsTotal417,649327,608103,09313,729


----------



## HTC (Apr 17, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



- 19022 confirmed infected --- 181 more
- 519 recovered --- 26 more
- 657 fatalities --- 28 more
- 158940 suspected cases --- 4213 more
- 221049 tests taken --- 12735 more
- 4805 waiting for test results --- 895 more
- 25456 under watch from authorities --- *609 less*
- 1284 hospitalized --- *18 less*
- 222 in ICU --- *7 less*

On one side there have been few new cases but on the other there are a lot more of those waiting for test results, which could easily flip today's good result tomorrow ...

EDIT

Our President and Parliament have approved an extension of emergency state for another 15 days. It's also being considered modifying our army reserve status to account for the possibility of it having to be enforced.

On a "not so good note", our Government will celebrate April 25th (Portugal's Liberty Day) by having a reduced parliamentary session, when compared to usual standards (in 2019, there were roughly 700 people attending): there will be 130 people in the event, between government officials and guests, including our former Presidents (all within the age group more susceptible to COVID-19).

Many people are outraged by this decision, not because of the celebration itself but because of the way it's being planed ...


----------



## EarthDog (Apr 17, 2020)

Ohio looks to loosen restrictions 5/1.




HTC said:


> Unfortunately, it isn't consistent: just look @ the previous day: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/post-4243549


sadly, micro data wont be helpful as we'll see spikes even on the way down. Its just the way this reporting works. Some days you'll get more datasets from rural counties versus urban than typical (there are many reasons, that is just one). The trend continuing is of course the important part.


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 17, 2020)

From Denmark update:

Total infected: 7073 all dead and recovered included
Recovered: 3389
Dead: 336
Hospitalized: 350
Critical: 93 where 74 of them being in respirator.

Now for the good news. As said before Denmark open up more than first planed in the first phase of reopen the country and now I know more. Besides schools and more normalizing of health care. There are barbarshops, dentists, massage clinics, driving teachers and private hospitals are among those that are alowed to reopen for business again. The list is much longer, but it will be a long list to take them all here.

However restaurants, fitness, libraries and so on are still to remain lock down. But I think the government has already opened up a desent amount of business.

Now I just hope we don't get a to large fall back and have to close down again.

How are people in USA coping up, it seems us are now the hardest hit continent?

Also nearly 22 mio unemploymed, that's madness. This really taking a toll on us economy, if I am to believe youtubers at least. People saying usa systems are falling apart cause of dedt and high unemployment and so on. But maybe these youtubers are just doomsday guys or do this forums people believe they are right, like this guy here.










What ever us economy is so hard hit or not, at least Trump has beginning to open up usa as well. That shut be good for us economy.

Not that Denmark are going free either. I lost my job in marts and we now have increased unemployment by around 44000 people caused by lock down to a total of 176000. It had been mush higher if the government had not taken measures in use like companies getting up to 90 % of employees paycheck covered by government and some other benefits, government counting on this helps around 100000 people to keep there job until we are over the virus. We are around 5.8 mio people in Denmark where around half is workfoce, rest is children, pensioners, people not able to work and so on.


----------



## Vario (Apr 17, 2020)




----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 18, 2020)

Not a geopolitical map but a list of drugs being tested against COVID-19, their status, and expected answers on effectiveness:








						Lifeline pipeline
					

Status of upcoming vaccines, drugs and other treatments in the battle against COVID-19




					graphics.reuters.com
				





Working on vaccines:
Moderna/NIAID
Novavax
Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute
Murdoch Children's Research Institute; UMC Utrecht
Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)
CanSino Biological Inc./Beijing Institute of Biotechnology
University of Oxford




Time for an update of USA using the same source for data.

April 17:




March 29:





March 24:


----------



## HTC (Apr 18, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers:

- 91 more recovered
- 30 more deaths
- 663 more infected cases confirmed
- 31 less people hospitalized but 6 more in ICU
- over 14.8K tests conducted but over 5.1K still have their results pending
- no change in the number of cases under watch from authorities


----------



## HTC (Apr 19, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 20206 confirmed infected --- 521 more
- 610 recovered --- no change
- 714 fatalities --- 27 more
- 187604 suspected cases --- 24893 more
- 235878 tests taken --- no change
- 4959 waiting for test results --- *207 less*
- 27947 under watch from authorities --- 2491 more
- 1243 hospitalized --- *10 less*
- 224 in ICU --- *4 less*

We crossed the 20K infected barrier: a milestone we would rather have avoided ...


----------



## HTC (Apr 20, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 20863 confirmed infected --- 657 more
- 610 recovered --- no change
- 735 fatalities --- 21 more
- 198353 suspected cases --- 10749 more
- 235878 tests taken --- no change
- 4739 waiting for test results --- *220 less*
- 30805 under watch from authorities --- 2858 more
- 1208 hospitalized --- *35 less*
- 215 in ICU --- *9 less*

We've never had a day with fatalities over 35 IIRC but, "little" by "little", it adds up quite a bit, to the current figure 

The good news is both hospitalized as well as ICU numbers got reduced.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 20, 2020)

NL Update... still going down, breaking records daily in that sense.

We're still on 'intelligent' lockdown. Consensus is growing that we really need/want/should open schools again, especially for the youngest. I think we're likely to follow up on Denmark very soon.

Deaths per day: 67 per todays count




Hospitalized per day; 75 today




Note;  'Today' counts are the past 24 hours going from 14.00 each day.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 20, 2020)

UK rates are still high but they're not exponential - still, the cases are steady, as are the deaths. We should be declining but I guess we're doing something wrong...






Out of interest, looking at population densities for the countries with highest death rates:

USA - 40615 (Deaths)
Italy - 23660
Spain - 20852
France - 19718
UK - 16060

USA - 91 (people per square mile)
Italy - 520
Spain - 239
France - 306
UK - 724


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 20, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> UK rates are still high but they're not exponential - still, the cases are steady, as are the deaths. We should be declining but I guess we're doing something wrong...
> 
> View attachment 152142
> 
> ...



Well, if you look at our graph, I think its a similar trend. After exponential growth is out, there is still a lot of data that needs to be recovered and processed, because exponential means 'we can't predict how fast it'll go' and it means chaos in which the last thing you'd care about is counting heads. Thats why you get these odd peaks and valleys, its the aftermath really.

Averages don't do this crisis any justice, really, just as little as comparisons do. Every region, even cities have their own dynamic. That really struck me yesterday... I went out to the nearby city (live in rural area myself, 25.000 ppl village) and I know how it usually is over there... walking through the center of town right now is just so weird. I can totally imagine how big of a change it is if you're actually living in a city, and how much harder this thing hits as well. Over in my village, most of it is business as usual, except for shopping, but even that is recovering and finding ways to reopen 'with social distancing'. That same move in a city would be impossible, the crowd is just going to overwhelm any business.

Another example is the US and New York. Low ppl per sq/m but huge pop. hubs where it is the polar opposite. Averages miss that completely.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 20, 2020)

We have another problem in the UK (I'm sure others do too) and that is care homes (old folks homes). Believe it or not - those deaths are not in the UK official figures. The body that oversees care homes believe another 4000 can be added to the UK figure (which is for hospital deaths only). So, combined, care homes are one fifth of the UK number and until recent news coverage - they had terrible supplies of PPE.

Also the official death toll from NHS workers (contracting Covid from workplace) is 43. TFL (Transport for London) says 26 of its drivers have died of it.

The transmission of this virus is a huge problem. It'll surge once people start relaxing too much.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 20, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> We have another problem in the UK (I'm sure others do too) and that is care homes (old folks homes). Believe it or not - those deaths are not in the UK official figures. The body that oversees care homes believe another 4000 can be added to the UK figure (which is for hospital deaths only). So, combined, care homes are one fifth of the UK number and until recent news coverage - they had terrible supplies of PPE.
> 
> Also the official death toll from NHS workers (contracting Covid from workplace) is 43. TFL (Transport for London) says 26 of its drivers have died of it.
> 
> The transmission of this virus is a huge problem. It'll surge once people start relaxing too much.


449 deaths just reported for last 24 hours, that is the 3rd or 4th day on the trot of lowering numbers, I agree the figures are scary although infection rates and hospitalisations are also reducing day on day, I think the peak has happened and passed (last week when we were getting 800's and 900's per day) and we are hopefully on that downwards curve, god help us if we are not, I also agree that any significant relaxation of the lockdown anytime soon seems like a risk I would rather not take.

As for the Deaths per square mile, we have a greater population than Italy but with approx 15% less land mass, we have pretty much the same population as France with less than half of their land mass...... not ingredients conducive to stopping the spread of a highly contagious virus sadly


----------



## HTC (Apr 20, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> We have another problem in the UK (I'm sure others do too) and that is *care homes (old folks homes). Believe it or not - those deaths are not in the UK official figures.* The body that oversees care homes believe another 4000 can be added to the UK figure (which is for hospital deaths only). So, combined, care homes are one fifth of the UK number and until recent news coverage - they had terrible supplies of PPE.
> 
> Also the official death toll from NHS workers (contracting Covid from workplace) is 43. TFL (Transport for London) says 26 of its drivers have died of it.
> 
> The transmission of this virus is a huge problem. It'll surge once people start relaxing too much.



Portugal adds those to it's numbers: a significant portion of Portugal's death toll numbers have precisely that origin.

Also, and regardless of whatever else they had, if they had COVID-19, they are considered "dead by COVID-19" and added to the official numbers.



the54thvoid said:


> Out of interest, looking at population densities for the countries with highest death rates:
> 
> *USA - 40615 (Deaths)*
> Italy - 23660
> ...


Actually, there's quite a flaw with that: if you take New York and use it's numbers for both deaths and land mass, the number of people for square mile will likely be higher than UK's.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 20, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> We have another problem in the UK (I'm sure others do too) and that is care homes (old folks homes). Believe it or not - those deaths are not in the UK official figures. The body that oversees care homes believe another 4000 can be added to the UK figure (which is for hospital deaths only). So, combined, care homes are one fifth of the UK number and until recent news coverage - they had terrible supplies of PPE.
> 
> Also the official death toll from NHS workers (contracting Covid from workplace) is 43. TFL (Transport for London) says 26 of its drivers have died of it.
> 
> The transmission of this virus is a huge problem. It'll surge once people start relaxing too much.



Yes, this is becoming apparent everywhere and I hate to say this, but I think it is a problem that was deliberately mentioned 'too late'. For obvious reasons nobody wants to say out loud. Harsh... Not counting them at all... man that is just horrible. Are the nursing homes over there also locked down, in that visiting is limited or prohibited? Just imagine that... not being able to visit your parents and when they die, they're not even part of the statistic.



HTC said:


> Actually, there's quite a flaw with that: if you take New York and use it's numbers for both deaths and land mass, the number of people for square mile will likely be higher than UK's.



Yea minus London... enough people over there to rival our entire country... never mind, I see its about half the population of NL  Still...


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 20, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Yes, this is becoming apparent everywhere and I hate to say this, but I think it is a problem that was deliberately mentioned 'too late'. For obvious reasons nobody wants to say out loud. Harsh... Not counting them at all... man that is just horrible. *Are the nursing homes over there also locked down, in that visiting is limited or prohibited?* Just imagine that... not being able to visit your parents and when they die, they're not even part of the statistic.
> 
> 
> 
> Yea minus London... enough people over there to rival our entire country... never mind, I see its about half the population of NL  Still...


Yep, care homes are locked down, no family allowed to visit, just about to enter week 5 of this lockdown, there is a viral war going on in some of those homes with literally minimum wage care staff with insufficient PPE trying to cope without the resources and training hospitals and their staff have.


----------



## HTC (Apr 21, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 21379 confirmed infected --- 516 more
- 917 recovered --- 307 more
- 762 fatalities --- 27 more
- 202769 suspected cases --- 4416 more
- 271962 tests taken --- 36084 more
- 5009 waiting for test results --- 270 more
- 30646 under watch from authorities --- *159 less*
- 1172 hospitalized --- *36 less*
- 213 in ICU --- *2 less*

The reason both recovered and tests taken have had such huge increases is because those stats weren't updated in the two previous days. The *REALLY* good news is that both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, *for the 3rd day in a row*.

This shutdown, according to our Government, is costing the country 2772M Euros per month: Portugal will likely experience it's strongest economy contraction in our country's recorded history, according to the Government's current projections.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 21, 2020)

​​
April 21, 2020 for Louisiana.  First update by me since April 10th

24,854 cases (19,253 on April 10th)
1,405 deaths (755 on April 10th)
1,798 hospitalized (2,054 on April 10th)
297 on ventilators (479 on April 10th) 
141,657  tests have been conducted  (92,280 on April 10th)

Some state stats for Louisiana as of April 20th:


----------



## biffzinker (Apr 21, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> ​​
> April 21, 2020 for Louisiana.  First update by me since April 10th
> 
> 
> ...


Were definitely not there yet no matter how much the Republican/Democrat parties would like everything to go back to normal for the economy. Loosen those restrictions so all hell breaks loose, and there's more collateral damage. I'm surprised Alaska has managed to keep this as under control as it's possible considering Alaska is a known international hub of travel.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 21, 2020)

Rural can loosen, urban cannot, simply because of the population density.  Even then, no large events/gatherings can happen.


----------



## HTC (Apr 22, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> ​​
> April 21, 2020 for Louisiana.  First update by me since April 10th
> 
> 
> ...


Almost double the deaths in a 11 day period: DAMN 

The good news is the number of those in ICU is substantially smaller, while the number of hospitalized has also decreased, though to a lesser extent.

One observation about the underlying conditions part of the stats: this being a respiratory virus, one would expect those already with pulmonary problems to be the hardest hit but that's not the case @ all.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 22, 2020)

HTC said:


> Almost double the deaths in a 11 day period: DAMN
> 
> The good news is the number of those in ICU is substantially smaller, while the number of hospitalized has also decreased, though to a lesser extent.
> 
> One observation about the underlying conditions part of the stats: this being a respiratory virus, one would expect those already with pulmonary problems to be the hardest hit but that's not the case @ all.


I noticed that about the underlying conditions too. High blood pressure was number 1, something the CDC has not listed on their website. I don’t know about other medical authorities around the world.

Yes, our rate of infection and hospitalization has dropped. I expect we shall see more deaths still as people on life support for weeks can no longer hang on.


----------



## HTC (Apr 22, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> I noticed that about the underlying conditions too. High blood pressure was number 1, something the CDC has not listed on their website. I don’t know about other medical authorities around the world.
> 
> Yes, our rate of infection and hospitalization has dropped.* I expect we shall see more deaths still as people on life support for weeks can no longer hang on.*


This is the *REAL* problem and one that is often not mentioned: those that require hospitalization *STAY* hospitalized for quite a *LONG* period, regardless of if they ended up requiring ICU or not: this is ALSO the main difference between this virus and flu / pneumonia because those don't require such long hospitalization periods, *usually*.

EDIT

There's "two case studies" where you can observe this: one is the Diamond Princess cruise ship and the other is that USA air carrier which name's escaping me right now.

Those that had the virus in the cruise ship and required hospitalization, how long did they require it for? Since this was quite some time ago, has everyone that survided been considered cured yet?

That carrier is different because it's much more recent and most, *@ the time*, were a-symptomatic. How about currently? I have no access to such data so i don't know either way.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 22, 2020)

Here's the Louisiana list sorted by frequency with category relating to cause of death in parenthesis:
1. Hypertension (Heart)
2. Diabetes (Diabetes)
3. Chronic Kidney Disease (Kidney disease)
4. Obesity (Heart)
5. Cardiac Disease (Heart)
6. Pulmonary (Heart)
7. Congestive Heart Failure (Heart)
8. Cancer (Cancer)
9. Neurological (Stroke and cerebrovascular diseases)
10. Asthma (Chronic lower respiratory disease)

Here's the list of most frequent cause of death on death certificates:
1. Heart disease
2. Cancer
3. Accidents
4. Chronic lower respiratory disease
5. Stroke and cerebrovascular diseases
6. Alzheimer's disease
7. Diabetes
8. Influenza and pneumonia
9. Kidney disease
10. Suicide


Now attempting to merge the two to see if there's anything exceptional (number in parenthesis aligns with leading causes of death normally):
1. Heart (#1): Hypertension, Obesity, Cardiac Disease, Pulmonary, Congestive Heart Failure
2. Diabetes (*#7*)
3. Chronic Kidney Disease (*#9*)
4. Cancer (#2)
5. Neurological (#5)
6. Asthma (#4)

Asthma being really low is shocking.  Just saw a paper today that stressed "air pollution" as the most significant risk factor:


			https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/covid-pm/files/pm_and_covid_mortality.pdf
		


Anyway...the real shocker is diabetes and kidney disease.  They jump way up as risk factors from the rest.  Kidney disease makes some sense...because dialysis isn't optional.  Not sure why diabetes is so high...








						Diabetes During the COVID-19 Pandemic
					

People with diabetes need to take special care to avoid coronavirus (COVID-19). Here are a few practical tips, including keeping your blood sugar under control.




					www.webmd.com
				



Ah, weakened immune system.


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## Tatty_One (Apr 22, 2020)

Kidney disease certainly is not a shocker here, that list which in effect is those most at risk with these underlying conditions formed the basis of a quarantine policy here 5 weeks ago for the extremely vulnerable, my wife is a Nurse who suffers from Chronic Kidney disease, based on her condition she was risk assessed 5 weeks ago and has been off work on full pay ever since, to be reviewed after 12 weeks off.

Downside to this story of course is ………………….. I am having to spend more time with her than at any time in our 38 year marriage   but at least she is safe.


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## HTC (Apr 22, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 21982 confirmed infected --- 603 more
- 1143 recovered --- 226 more
- 785 fatalities --- 23 more
- 210302 suspected cases --- 7533 more
- 284741 tests taken --- 12779 more
- 3219 waiting for test results --- *1790 less*
- 30646 under watch from authorities --- no change
- 1146 hospitalized --- *26 less*
- 207 in ICU --- *6 less*

The *REALLY* good news is that both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, *for the 4th day in a row*.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 23, 2020)

Moved a couple of posts to the Lounge thread (video about masks).


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## FordGT90Concept (Apr 23, 2020)

I missed this one a few weeks back.  It looks like they're updating it though.  Graphs the rate of death count growth per day per country:








						Breaking the wave
					

Measuring the death toll of COVID-19 and how far we are from stopping it.




					graphics.reuters.com
				



Looks like most of the world has it contained.


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## HTC (Apr 23, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 22353 confirmed infected --- 371 more
- 1201 recovered --- 58 more
- 820 fatalities --- 35 more
- 219848 suspected cases --- 9546 more
- 300525 tests taken --- 15784 more
- 4048 waiting for test results --- 829 more
- 30342 under watch from authorities --- *304 less*
- 1095 hospitalized --- *51 less*
- 204 in ICU --- *3 less*

The *REALLY* good news is that both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, *for the 5th day in a row*: i'm definitely seeing a trend here!


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## Tatty_One (Apr 23, 2020)

UK update for today 
Infection and hospitalisations continue to drop daily, if feels to me we are a little slow moving from that "plateau" in terms of deaths to a real downward curve. 


Daily23,560   Tests14,629    No of people tested4,583  tested positive616   fatalitiesTotal583,496425,821138,07818,738


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## HTC (Apr 23, 2020)

Btw, @Tatty_One : what's with the number of recovered in UK?

OP's Johns Hopkins' link reports only 701: so few with that many infected? Even Portugal, with under 1/6 of the infected number has much more than that.


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 23, 2020)

Number Update from Denmark.

Total infected cases: 8073
Recovered: 5384
Critical condition: 74 where 68 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 394
Total active cases: 2295

As Denmark is one of the first countries to start open up. We are in a critical phase now, that will show how much can we open the country with out having fall back. All throw it is to be exspected that infected cases will clime as we are beginning to be more active again and that´s why danish goverment now has raised test capacity for every day. We are now at 8000 test every day and hope to reach 15000-20000 as we open up and test capacity gets better. Just dont hope we have open up to much and sees a fall back again.

But to be hornestly, i do have respect for the virus. But i have to admit i being more concerned about Denmarks and rest of the worlds economic future. The numbers coming out are litterly scary reading. 26 mio unemployed in US alone and still climing is very alarming. A prognose has sujested that up to 59 mio people in the eurozone are in risk of losing there job or at least go down in work time. I lost my own job i marts and there are more or less no jobs to find. I dont think the world will get a fast recovery or the V-shape we hope for. More like U-shape at best and L-shape is likely as this damage world econemy more and more for every day.


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## HTC (Apr 23, 2020)

Tomgang said:


> Number Update from Denmark.
> 
> Total infected cases: 8073
> Recovered: 5384
> ...


Most countries are looking @ Danish as well as the others that "opened" earlier to see how they fare and ascertain if they can "open" themselves @ a similar evolution of the situation or not.

Hang in there: we're *all* rooting for you ...


----------



## Tomgang (Apr 23, 2020)

HTC said:


> Most countries are looking @ Danish as well as the others that "opened" earlier to see how they fare and ascertain if they can "open" themselves @ a similar evolution of the situation or not.
> 
> Hang in there: we're *all* rooting for you ...



Yeah i am happy and concerned about we can open up. happy because it hope fully means we can get to better times faster and a more normal day again. But there are still a long way to a normal day with out social distancing. But concerned we open up to early and we need to plunge back to lock down again and worsen the economic down turn that is already pretty bad.

Thanks about the rooting. We sure need it as all other counties need it to. This is something the whole world is infected of.


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## HTC (Apr 23, 2020)

Tomgang said:


> Yeah i am happy and concerned about we can open up. happy because it hope fully means we can get to better times faster and a more normal day again. But there are still a long way to a normal day with out social distancing. *But concerned we open up to early and we need to plunge back to lock down again and worsen the economic down turn that is already pretty bad.
> 
> Thanks about the rooting.* We sure need it as all other counties need it to. This is something the whole world is infected of.


Exactly our concern.

When i said "we are all rooting for you", i meant all countries that have yet to "open" and, by extension, all the people in those countries.


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## Tatty_One (Apr 23, 2020)

HTC said:


> Btw, @Tatty_One : what's with the number of recovered in UK?
> 
> OP's Johns Hopkins' link reports only 701: so few with that many infected? Even Portugal, with under 1/6 of the infected number has much more than that.


It's just not being reported, many of the infected were tested and isolated at home, loads of them recovered apparently, saw out their self isolation period and carried on, without applying for a re-test so it was decided that if over 50% of infected could not be measured there was little point in using resource to record an inaccurate stat of recoveries, ultimately, everyone infected who has not died recovers!

As for countries relaxing lockdown restrictions, whilst the world may watch and learn lessons it's so very different country to country, cultures, populations and all other manner of things play their part, I would love to see the success of London with god knows how many million population ease down without getting further mass infections, you guys saw the Underground rail queue's during a rush hour commute I posted a while back, that was during lockdown when only 5% of the population were working! 

I think Ford mentioned previously..... countries with bigger populations and/or land mass may have to have very different easing down rules for different areas..... urban, rural etc.


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## Tomgang (Apr 23, 2020)

HTC said:


> Exactly our concern.
> 
> When i said "we are all rooting for you", i meant all countries that have yet to "open" and, by extension, all the people in those countries.



Ah yeah. I see your point. Only time will tell how this is going to be in a 2-4 weeks. Danish government has just said, that we will have to wait at least two weeks more before they will come out with phase 2 opening options. Probably because they are unsure of how phase 1 will go, so they will not say anything and by that avoid promising to much and I think that is fair enough. Cause the fact is, even the government is not sure how it will turn out. There are still so much unknown like how will the virus mutate next, how will people react and will they be able to take it seriously with keeping distance and such. The good weather cut bring that in to risk as more people stay together in the good weather we have now and might get some people to be less careful.


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## rtwjunkie (Apr 23, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> It's just not being reported, many of the infected were tested and isolated at home, loads of them recovered apparently, saw out their self isolation period and carried on, without applying for a re-test so it was decided that if over 50% of infected could not be measured there was little point in using resource to record an inaccurate stat of recoveries, ultimately, everyone infected who has not died recovers!


That’s much the same reason our state government is not tracking recoveries in Louisiana. With all the variables, it’s just something better off left till later, devoting manpower and resources to the care of the infected.


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## HTC (Apr 24, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 22797 confirmed infected --- 444 more
- 1228 recovered --- 27 more
- 854 fatalities --- 34 more
- 227393 suspected cases --- 7545 more
- 315758 tests taken --- 15233 more
- 4377 waiting for test results --- 329 more
- 29621 under watch from authorities --- *721 less*
- 1068 hospitalized --- *27 less*
- 188 in ICU --- *16 less

The trend continues*: both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, *for the 6th day in a row*.


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## HTC (Apr 25, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 23932 confirmed infected --- 595 more
- 1277 recovered --- 49 more
- 880 fatalities --- 26 more
- 231737 suspected cases --- 4344 more
- 315758 tests taken --- no change
- 4783 waiting for test results --- 406 more
- 29932 under watch from authorities --- 311 more
- 1040 hospitalized --- *28 less*
- 186 in ICU --- *2 less

The trend continues*: both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, *for the 7th day in a row*. It could be 10 days in a row already were it not for April 18th: on that day, though hospitalized dropped, ICU increased.


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## Tomgang (Apr 25, 2020)

An uplifting article from a Danish news paper called Berlingske.

Here is what the article says in Danish a short citat from it:
*»Smitten er ved at dø ud, om jeg så må sige« – her er eksperternes dom over de seneste tal*
Der er grund til at glæde sig over lørdagens tal for antallet af indlagte smittet med coronavirus, vurderer eksperter over for Berlingske. Tallet falder nemlig markant.

»Det betyder, at smitten er ved at dø ud, om jeg så må sige. Tendensen er der både i antallet af indlæggelser og i smittetrykket,« siger Torben Mogensen, formand for Lungeforeningen og speciallæge i anæstesi.

Translated to English:
"The infection is beginning to die out, i will say" - Here is the experts judgment about the latest numbers.

There is a good reason to be happy about the numbers from this Saturday about infected people in the hospitals and according to the experts judgement, the numbers of infected are dropping rapidly so far.

This means the infection is beginning to die out. This goes for bofh hospitalized and infection pressure on the health care system says Torben Mogensen, president of the Lung Association and specialist in anesthesia.

Article is here, in Danish: https://www.berlingske.dk/samfund/s...jeg-saa-maa-sige-her-er-eksperternes-dom-over

So this means so far the virus even throw Denmark has opened up this week, seems to be on it´s way out and dosent spread further. But i am still not convince my self as we will have to wait at least two weeks to really see if the infection dies out or not and so far only one week has past since the opening. But after one week and infected numbers still dropping is good news for sure so far. This gives me hope Danish goverment will open up for more in may as well.

Numbers from thursday this week to compare to.
Total infected cases: 8073
Recovered: 5384
Critical condition: 74 where 68 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 394
Total active cases: 2689

Todays numbers:
Total infected cases: 8,445
Recovered: 5,669
Critical condition: 70 where 56 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 418
Total active cases: 2776

Here is a tabel of people in hospital, critical condition, in respirator and dead people at what date the numbers registred the given day. So yeah the virus spread seems to be on its way back. This just shows that a combination of fast reaction from Danish goverment by locking down the country and social distancing really can do a difference. With the bad side effect of hurting the economy, but that really is the same for all countries under lock down. At least more and more countries are starting or planning to reopen slowly.


DatehospitalizedcriticalRespiratordead25/04290705641824/04320695840323/04319746139422/04324806838421/04335817237020/04336847236419/04319847335518/04317877634617/04350937433616/04353927232115/04362897530914/04380938029913/043881008728512/043961048527311/044081069026010/044011139524709/0443312010023708/0445312710321807/0447212710320306/0450313910818705/0450414410717904/0450714211216103/0451714611613902/0452515313812301/0453514612910431/035291451319030/035331371197729/034991311137228/034591211046527/03430109895226/0338694784125/0335087763424/0330169583223/0325455472422/0323246401321/0320642351320/031863732919/031533027618/03129244


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## lexluthermiester (Apr 26, 2020)

Been watching the numbers and they are reaching a plateau. The deaths are slowing down and the infections are but to a lesser degree. Personally, I find this encouraging.


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## Tomgang (Apr 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Been watching the numbers and they are reaching a plateau. The deaths are slowing down and the infections are but to a lesser degree. Personally, I find this encouraging.



Yeah. If numbers of infected people are going down while we open more up. This is really great news and also shows other countries as the virus peaks, it is possible to open up slowly while virus dies out. This means that open slowly, also means we can slowly get back to a more normal everyday life again and more and more people can return to work.

All throw not everything will be the same again as some has lost their loved ones, some there job as I have myself, some the company they worked there ass of to be a reality, homes will be lost and many countries will end up with a big government dedt to pay after this. Denmark just got government dedt free 3 years ago and now the virus just ruined this. But it has given government the opportunity to make a more aggressive help package to save companies and employees, than they else cut have done. That will hopefully help Denmark to stay stronger economic when we have returned to a more normal everyday. Compared to US government that has a huge dedt to pay of 107 % of gdp. Denmarks started at 0 % gdp dedt before this crisis, but danish dedt will climb now sadly again do the lock down.

Just to clarify. Denmark doesn't have dedt in other currency than Denmarks own dkr. But the lock down will change that sadly.


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## HTC (Apr 26, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 23864 confirmed infected --- 472 more
- 1329 recovered --- 52 more
- 903 fatalities --- 23 more
- 236410 suspected cases --- 4673 more
- 330512 tests taken --- 14754 more
- 4673 waiting for test results --- *110 less*
- 30453 under watch from authorities --- 521 more
- 1005 hospitalized --- *35 less*
- 182 in ICU --- *4 less

The trend continues*: both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, *for the 8th day in a row*. It could have been 11 days in a row already were it not for April 18th: on that day, though hospitalized dropped, ICU increased.

It's already been announced the emergency state in Portugal will not be renewed on May 2nd. That being said, county crossings during this next long weekend will be forbidden to all except those with the required clearance to do so (essential workers, those caring for family members, and such).


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## Tomgang (Apr 26, 2020)

Latest numbers from Denmark update from Saturday.

Total infected: 8575
Recovered: 5805
dead: 422 or only 4 more than Saturday. The lowest number since we got the virus to Denmark in 1 day.
Hospitalized: 285
Critical/respirator is the same number from Saturday or 70 and 56.
Active cases: 2770

So even after one week of reopen and more testing. numbers are still going down. this looks really good and also if other countries can do the same and not get and explosion of infected people again. this gives hope for that by end of second quarter. We Can Be Close To many countries has reopened, not fully, but so much that economy can start-up and hopefully prevent a total economic disaster world wide.

So back to Denmark to resume numbers. today we had the lowest numbers of dead since the first death recorded in midt may and Hospitalized are down to 285 or 5 less from yesterday and even with more testing in weekends total active cases has lovered from 2776 Saturday to 2770 Sunday. I know it's not much different, but taken to account that the first week of reopen has past and we test more people, I had fear the numbers would have gone up, but that doesn't seem to be case so far. If This continues the next week or two, Denmark has won the war over this virus as we reopen but not to fast off cause else the virus can get a rebound.

So to all in all countries. Stay strong, listen to the government and respect the rules and keep the social distance going. It is possible to Win over the virus it seems. If this is respected. I know it's hard and annoying specifically for the youth people it's hard to sit home and no party or fun. But if we ignore it, it will only prolong the pandemic and longering the lock down. With more economic damage, more lost jobs, more sick and dead people and just a plain out longer boring spring/summer spend in lock down and I don't think any one want that to happen.


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## HTC (Apr 26, 2020)

Tomgang said:


> *So even after one week of reopen and more testing. numbers are still going down.* *this looks really good *and also if other countries can do the same and not get and explosion of infected people again. this gives hope for that by end of second quarter. We Can Be Close To many countries has reopened, not fully, but so much that economy can start-up and hopefully prevent a total economic disaster world wide.
> 
> So back to Denmark to resume numbers. today we had the lowest numbers of dead since the first death recorded in midt may and Hospitalized are down to 285 or 5 less from yesterday and even with more testing in weekends total active cases has lovered from 2776 Saturday to 2770 Sunday. I know it's not much different, but taken to account that the first week of reopen has past and we test more people, I had fear the numbers would have gone up, but that doesn't seem to be case so far. If This continues the next week or two, Denmark has won the war over this virus as we reopen


Think it's still a bit premature to say so: not enough time elapsed, just yet.

The one thing i think i can definitely say is: it *doesn't* look bad.


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## Tomgang (Apr 26, 2020)

HTC said:


> Think it's still a bit premature to say so: not enough time elapsed, just yet.
> 
> The one thing i think i can definitely say is: it *doesn't* look bad.



I know. That is also why I said *if* this continues the next two weeks. If it doesn't continue, we have not won the war yet.

But I'm hopeful now. Seing the first hole week pass and numbers haven't raised yet, is a good sing.


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## Tatty_One (Apr 26, 2020)

3 weeks appears to be the crucial point after a relaxation of restrictions, minimum of 2 weeks as it could take a week for someone to get infected and then 1-2 weeks for symptoms to show, most high population countries are likely to therefore introduce relaxations in waves every 3 weeks so they can evidence that there are no negative outcomes, lets hope for all of our sakes that things go well!

UK has now passed an unwanted milestone of 20,000 deaths whilst still continuing to have less infected daily with much less hospitalisations, it seems we have downward trends of fatalities for 2 or 3 days and then a day where it increases again, this may just be down to reporting but we are still deep in it until we can see weeks of day on day reductions of fatalities that are significant.

368 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, the lowest it has been for over 4 weeks.


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## HTC (Apr 27, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 24027 confirmed infected --- 163 more
- 1357 recovered --- 28 more
- 928 fatalities --- 25 more
- 237571 suspected cases --- 1161 more
- 330512 tests taken --- no change
- 5091 waiting for test results --- 418 more
- 30703 under watch from authorities --- 250 more
- 995 hospitalized --- *10 less*
- 176 in ICU --- *6 less

The trend continues*: both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, *for the 9th day in a row*. What i *really* think deserves a celebration is the fact the number of hospitalized is now "only" 3 digits in size


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## the54thvoid (Apr 28, 2020)

These were the deaths in the worst five countries one week ago.

USA - 40615 (Deaths)
Italy - 23660
Spain - 20852
France - 19718
UK - 16060

This is one week later.

USA - 56803   -- 40% increase in deaths
Italy - 26997 -- 14%
Spain - 23521 -- 13%
France - 23293 -- 18%
UK - 21092 -- 31%


US and UK still rising fast. 

UK was late to enforce strict isolation and has insufficient PPE for frontline staff. We're now paying out to the families of NHS staff who have died during the outbreak (60K per death). Imagine you're an employer and you sent your workers into a hazardous environment without proper protection. In the US, there'd be a warranted lawsuit. In the UK we call it a goodwill gesture and a 'thanks for the sacrifice'.


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## HTC (Apr 28, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> These were the deaths in the worst five countries one week ago.
> 
> USA - 40615 (Deaths)
> Italy - 23660
> ...


Do you have the data for hospitalizations during the same period?

EDIT

In Portugal, since last Tuesday until yesterday, we went from 762 deaths to 928 deaths: 21.78% increase.

In the same time frame, hospitalizations went from 1172 to 995: a 15.11% *DECREASE*.


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## the54thvoid (Apr 28, 2020)

HTC said:


> Do you have the data for hospitalizations during the same period?



Afraid not. At least, not for UK. Unless someone else has the info?

Admissions are dropping, they have said, so we're flattening the curve but the issue is how long will it take to become viable to ease restrictions.


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## HTC (Apr 28, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Afraid not. At least, not for UK. Unless someone else has the info?
> 
> Admissions are dropping, they have said, so we're flattening the curve but the issue is how long will it take to become viable to ease restrictions.


I edited my previous post with deaths as well as hospitalization numbers in Portugal.

It was announced Portugal would go off emergency state May 2nd but there are legal issues that are getting in the way so it's a lot more tricky than we thought.

For example, the Government wants to lock county travels for this coming long weekend except for those with the necessary "clearance" but that's only legal during emergency state, so that's a problem.

Another thing that, to me is trivial, but it's actually illegal in Portugal is for work places to start checking temperature of workers prior to them entering wherever they work: the objective would be for those found to have a higher temperature to be denied entry to the work place and be checked later for COVID-19, should the temperature continue to be elevated for a longer period. I actually suggested this still in March to my superiors, not knowing it was illegal ...


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## EarthDog (Apr 28, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> USA - 56803 -- 40% increase in deaths


40%... not bad... time to open up! [Sarcasm]

Being serious, 40% is an improvement. I dont recall when, likely six weeks ago or so, it was doubling every couple of days.


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## rtwjunkie (Apr 28, 2020)

Louisiana has determined that even though our curve is beginning to flatten, we are not there yet. So we will continue a stay-at-home stance till May 15th.  I’ll have numbers today after the Noon update.  

Lucky for me my employer has continued telework advisals for two more weeks as well.


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## HTC (Apr 28, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 24322 confirmed infected --- 295 more
- 1389 recovered --- 32 more
- 948 fatalities --- 20 more
- 239065 suspected cases --- 1494 more
- 360155 tests taken --- 29643 more
- 3563 waiting for test results --- *1528 less*
- 29559 under watch from authorities --- *1144 less*
- 936 hospitalized --- *59 less*
- 172 in ICU --- *4 less

The trend continues*: both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, *for the 10th day in a row*. The number of hospitalized decreased quite substantially VS yesterday: *6.3%*.


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## stuartb04 (Apr 28, 2020)

living in Bristol (uk) we have been quite fortunate in this pandemic. just under 600 i believe 
i expect the figure is alot higher than whats been recorded as tests are being done for key workers and the most severe patients.

My stepson has had the virus for the last 8 days. he has had moderate symptoms but he has been really bad..still is.
My partner is a key worker so we have been tested 2 days ago at bristol airport.
what is strange is that she has been tested positive and my stepson tested negative. im still waiting for my results. but pretty sure i will be positive.
i know the tests are only 70% accurate but this is still bizarre.
both me and my partner have tight chests and shortness of breath now.

I think because cases in bristol are quite low so people probably think its ok to go out.
fingers crossed we will only get mild symptoms....

stay safe people
and bloody stay home!!!


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## robot zombie (Apr 29, 2020)

stuartb04 said:


> My stepson has had the virus for the last 8 days. he has had moderate symptoms but he has been really bad..still is.
> My partner is a key worker so we have been tested 2 days ago at bristol airport.
> what is strange is that she has been tested positive and my stepson tested negative. im still waiting for my results. but pretty sure i will be positive.
> i know the tests are only 70% accurate but this is still bizarre.
> both me and my partner have tight chests and shortness of breath now.


Well first of all be well. But that is interesting. I'm on the opposite end of that weirdness. The guy I work with most got what everyone kind of assumed would be covid, but it was never verified as being that. It hit him pretty rapidly, hard. Had all of the classic symptoms. The shortness of breath seemed rough, even on the phone, with him rushing sentences out to squeeze in shallow gulps of air. Just background wheeze the whole time, with terrible coughing spells. This man never gets sick like that. He's older but very healthy and active. Every time we've both caught the same thing, it got me nearly twice as bad as it got him. But he sounded like he was into the early phases of pneumonia... overnight. It was legitimately concerning because I know those sounds from when my dad had it so bad he was borderline suffocating (and sounded like it,) one step from the ER. Sounded quite the same. On day 5 his results came back negative. He said they did the nose test, the early one where they jam that big thing up and it's really unpleasant, not the dainty swab.

He stayed pretty sick that whole two weeks... I spent a good bit of time talking to him over the course of things, being on defacto quarantine myself. Everything that he was describing matched up and he had said it felt 'different,' like a combination of severe flu and walking pneumonia. He really had to stress that he couldn't wrap his head around it. We were all very worried for him - I believe he's 62. Anybody can sound sick on the phone. This dude was siiiiiick. He didn't really start getting better until a few days before his quarantine would be due up, either. He of course went back to the doctor before going back to work, but the doctor didn't want to test him. Gave him a check-up and said he was good to go.

But then, after getting the z-pak and I think some antibiotics he did improve. He said the doctor was very dismissive once the test came back negative, so I can only assume that whoever went over the results with him was very confident in the reliability. But then, they provided the standard relief for C-19, so who knows? Of course they're gonna give it to someone showing similar symptoms, even if they're negative. Realistically, it could've been anything, but with this C-19 miasma hanging over like it has, it all feels a little strange.

I was fine, even having worked closely with him long before that. Of course, they wouldn't test me, not having symptoms. I do wonder what the result might've been. Wouldn't that have been something? Guy with symptoms is negative, after being in contact with an asymptomatic guy who's positive. If I had it, what he was showing symptoms of might've been too. It should've been a pretty sure bet, honestly. It wouldn't have been avoidable. Could just have been one of those spooky coincidences, though. Jeez does that mess with my head though 

I hope you all manage okay. Don't let the internet rot your brains, though. People keep saying 'thank god for all of us having the internet right now!' I say that sounds insane... locked in the house for 2 weeks online is nothing if that's what you do, but going from a more active life to that will shut half of your brain off in just that first week. Probably the best, actually usable advice I can give you is to find as many ways as possible to keep your mind hooked-in. I treated my time away like a reset button and since then I've been in a different frame of mind. It basically amounts to living very simply for a while, so if you have the important stuff squared away, it's a great opportunity to really stop and think, because pretty much all you can do is let go of everything - just break away.

This is probably the worst possible way for it to come about, but I think people might have needed to stop for a while and have a little self-humility check. It sucks being locked in, but I wonder why really, with the seriousness, people are still bent on resisting that, even when it's not about money. I half wonder if a few of them might not be able to process the idea of being home with themselves for a prolonged period. A lot of people go years without that even being a part of their reality. So the idea doesn't make sense to them - something is wrong with that. The impulse to go out is a way of reconciling it. People may rationalize it after the fact, but I really think they just get up and go and don't think about it... even after collectively spending 33% of the day talking about C-19


----------



## HTC (Apr 29, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 24505 confirmed infected --- 183 more
- 1470 recovered --- 81 more
- 973 fatalities --- 25 more
- 243655 suspected cases --- 4590 more
- 379551 tests taken --- 19396 more
- 3825 waiting for test results --- 262 more
- 29568 under watch from authorities --- 9 more
- 980 hospitalized --- 44 more
- 169 in ICU --- *3 less

The trend was broken *

Though ICU number dropped, hospitalized number increased


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 29, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> View attachment 153210 View attachment 153211
> 
> ...


There may be little spikes, but if overall you stay on the downward path, it’s good, basically 3 steps forward and only one backward.


----------



## HTC (Apr 29, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> There may be little spikes, but if overall you stay on the downward path, it’s good, basically 3 steps forward and only one backward.



Our total cases curve is getting flatter, on a logarithmic scale of 2 (click for full picture):



I made this graph earlier with the help of some TPU members.

By comparison, and using the data from Johns Hopkins University's link in OP, i just finished compiling the data for USA  (click for full picture):



Obviously, there are significant differences, like the fact USA's 1st case was in January while Portugal's was in March, not to mention the demographic difference but the whole point is to show the curve and, while Portugal's is @ a low angle already, USA's is not quite there just yet.

It's visible Portugal's daily numbers are in a declining trend while USA's are almost flat. Don't forget the scale is logarithmic so, when daily cases drop by *ONE* horizontal line, that actually means they dropped by *HALF*.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 29, 2020)

April 29, 2020 for Louisiana.  Update compares numbers to April 21st.

27,660 cases (19,253 on April 21st)
1,802 deaths (1,405 on April 21st)
1,629 hospitalized 1,798 on April 21st)
244 on ventilators (297 on April 21st)
158,568  tests have been conducted  (141,657 on April 21st)  -in a population of 4.6 million

17,303 Presumed recovered * New stat being tracked

This week, the state started tracking recovered numbers finally.

Also, Louisiana has definitely taken the testing mantra seriously.  They expect to ramp the testing rate up significantly as well in the next month.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 29, 2020)

NL update. Downward trend

Meanwhile, people starting to think it is business as usual. We're probably going to have a little bump in our stats soon, is my prediction...

In other news, I read today that vaccination is well underway... some candidate that could potentially already launch in September...cautious optimism...

-57 IC beds in use




Hospitalizations





Death count







stuartb04 said:


> living in Bristol (uk) we have been quite fortunate in this pandemic. just under 600 i believe
> i expect the figure is alot higher than whats been recorded as tests are being done for key workers and the most severe patients.
> 
> My stepson has had the virus for the last 8 days. he has had moderate symptoms but he has been really bad..still is.
> ...



You probably know, but I would suggest keeping a good eye on one another going forward and especially around day 7-12 if you happen to know when you might have caught it. Symptoms can take a turn for the worse at the 'end' of illness.

I wish you all the best.



HTC said:


> Our total cases curve is getting flatter, on a logarithmic scale of 2 (click for full picture):
> 
> View attachment 153223
> 
> ...



Ha! Nice you got your log scale right 



rtwjunkie said:


> April 29, 2020 for Louisiana.  Update compares numbers to April 21st.
> 
> 27,660 cases (19,253 on April 21st)
> 1,802 deaths (1,405 on April 21st)
> ...



It really amazes me how the US states are each on their own handling this. Wondrous nation 



robot zombie said:


> This is probably the worst possible way for it to come about, but I think people might have needed to stop for a while and have a little self-humility check. It sucks being locked in, but I wonder why really, with the seriousness, people are still bent on resisting that, even when it's not about money. I half wonder if a few of them might not be able to process the idea of being home with themselves for a prolonged period. A lot of people go years without that even being a part of their reality. So the idea doesn't make sense to them - something is wrong with that. The impulse to go out is a way of reconciling it. People may rationalize it after the fact, but I really think they just get up and go and don't think about it... even after collectively spending 33% of the day talking about C-19



Very personal, that. You or I might not have the same response to a lockdown as your neighbour or others in the house. On a philosophical level I agree completely, people do need to stop and think every once in a while, and our society's rat race does not accomodate that at all. But still, its like getting up early in the morning right? If you're always getting up late, getting up early is a huge problem. If you always get up early, its the normal. I think the amount of activity and how outgoing people are, is similar to this. Its what you're used to, and adjustment in behaviour is very problematic for humans.

I think that might be everyone's lesson in self humility, especially in wealthy countries: "No, you don't always have or get what you want." It teaches us to be more flexible. And the next lesson is going to be that 'less is more', because simply enough, there will be less of everything when the economy suffers. Given our starting point of gross excess I don't really think that is a bad thing, the planet can use it.


----------



## HTC (Apr 30, 2020)

Here's my current data on 5 countries, using what i learned about chart making in Linux and data from Johns Hopkins University's link in OP, as well as Portugal's site for the relevant info (click for full picture):



Each horizontal line represent a doubling of the previous one so, in USA VS Spain and Italy, those 2 horizontal lines of difference actually represent a quadrupling of cases.

The more horizontal the curve is getting, the better whatever measures that have been taken are having effect. In the particular case of Italy and Spain, it's noticeable how Italy's curve is a bit flatter than Spain's, even though their totals are quite similar.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 30, 2020)

USA has little intention to stop the virus completely, instead, it aims to maintain.  USA will probably see a third hump similar to the second.


----------



## HTC (Apr 30, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> USA has little intention to stop the virus completely, instead, it aims to maintain.  USA will probably see a third hump similar to the second.


Compare UK's with USA's curve: it appears to me that USA's curve has a slightly lower angle than UK's so, according to this chart, USA is faring *slightly* better than UK.

Ofc this refers to *reported* infected cases and obviously depends on the testing per capita for more accuracy: the more testing is done, the better the accuracy.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 30, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> USA has little intention to stop the virus completely, instead, it aims to maintain.  USA will probably see a third hump similar to the second.



Any country saying it does, is lying to itself and its citizens. You won't stop this anyway. You will delay it, at best. So, the US also doesn't really 'aim to maintain'... does it?  That's a nice one for politicians but in the real world there is simply a problem that requires constant attention and adjustment until we can vaccinate.

As for the curves... I think the differences have everything to do with distance and demography. Distance will delay the spread and many elderly will increase death count.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 30, 2020)

HTC said:


> Compare UK's with USA's curve: it appears to me that USA's curve has a slightly lower angle than UK's so, according to this chart, USA is faring *slightly* better than UK.
> 
> Ofc this refers to *reported* infected cases and obviously depends on the testing per capita for more accuracy: the more testing is done, the better the accuracy.


The strange thing is the UK now for a straight 10 days has significantly lowered day on day infection rates, hospitalisations, ITU beds and a little more recently deaths, what is strange is we have quadrupled testing in those 10 days which normally would mean the figures or at least some of them should increase, yesterday we had a "blip" with the death rates but we have that every week on a Wednesday because reporting seems to go to sleep a little over the weekends so Monday and Tuesday's figures tend to be low for deaths (300-400) and then Wednesday they catch up with reporting (700+) and then numbers are down again day on day until the following week.

If you look at the fatality count therefore by week to compensate for this erratic reporting you see we are clearly beyond peak and are just now moving beyond plateau into that downward curve that I have been desperately waiting for this last 2 weeks.  We are also reporting now ALL deaths, not sure everyone's figures include deaths from private residencies, care homes, hospices etc...… it does not make easy reading but for the first time in 2+ weeks I have some confidence we are getting there, already some people are screaming for the lockdown to be relaxed, mainly fuelled by the media, I say shut up and carry on as we are for at least a couple more weeks, we are in week 6 of lockdown now, I would rather not be infected than go to Starbucks for a Latte ..... stay safe, stay kind.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Apr 30, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Any country saying it does, is lying to itself and its citizens. You won't stop this anyway. You will delay it, at best. So, the US also doesn't really 'aim to maintain'... does it?  That's a nice one for politicians but in the real world there is simply a problem that requires constant attention and adjustment until we can vaccinate.
> 
> As for the curves... I think the differences have everything to do with distance and demography. Distance will delay the spread and many elderly will increase death count.


I meant "aim to maintain" burden on healthcare system, not cases.  Cases can only go one direction: up.  In a city like NYC, they must maintain the status quo because the healthcare system can't handle more large outbreaks.  In a place why rural Nebraska, they'll tell people to get back to work because it's almost like COVID-19 doesn't even exist there (cases few and far between).  If there's an outbreak, local leaders will have to pull back again.

There needs to be a push because of economic pressures and a pull because of healthcare pressures that require balancing.  That cannot and will not happen at the federal level.  State level has it's own pressure in terms of capability to test for SARS-CoV-2 (feeds into healthcare pressure).


----------



## HTC (Apr 30, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> The strange thing is the UK now for a straight 10 days has significantly lowered day on day infection rates, hospitalisations, ITU beds and a little more recently deaths, *what is strange is we have quadrupled testing in those 10 days which normally would mean the figures or at least some of them should increase*, yesterday we had a "blip" with the death rates but we have that every week on a Wednesday because reporting seems to go to sleep a little over the weekends so Monday and Tuesday's figures tend to be low for deaths (300-400) and then Wednesday they catch up with reporting (700+) and then numbers are down again day on day until the following week.
> 
> If you look at the fatality count therefore by week to compensate for this erratic reporting you see we are clearly beyond peak and are just now moving beyond plateau into that downward curve that I have been desperately waiting for this last 2 weeks.  We are also reporting now ALL deaths, not sure everyone's figures include deaths from private residencies, care homes, hospices etc...… it does not make easy reading but for the first time in 2+ weeks I have some confidence we are getting there, already some people are screaming for the lockdown to be relaxed, mainly fuelled by the media, I say shut up and carry on as we are for at least a couple more weeks, we are in week 6 of lockdown now, I would rather not be infected than go to Starbucks for a Latte ..... stay safe, stay kind.


And that's why, as testing ramps up, so does the accuracy of the graphs.

Of the 5 countries in the graph, UK is the one with the worst curve, albeit with USA's quite close, IMO. I do however plan to add more countries like, Sweden, South Korea, Germany, and others.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 30, 2020)

Maybe a little premature but I suppose in the current climate you have to make significant preparation (and risks) if you want to mass produce enough vaccine for our friends the world 









						UK researchers should know by July if coronavirus vaccine is effective
					

Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has partnered with Oxford University to help develop and distribute the vaccine being researched by the Jenner Institute and Oxford Vaccine Group.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## HTC (Apr 30, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25045 confirmed infected --- 540 more
- 1519 recovered --- 49 more
- 989 fatalities --- 16 more
- 247685 suspected cases --- 4030 more
- 395771 tests taken --- 16220 more
- 3794 waiting for test results --- *31 less*
- 29467 under watch from authorities --- *101 less*
- 968 hospitalized --- *12 less*
- 172 in ICU --- 3 more

ICU cases number broke an 11 day down streak but, considering it was only by 3, it's not that bad.

I have no way of knowing how many of the 16220 tests taken since yesterday + yesterday's "waiting for test results" - today's "waiting for test results" are of different individuals but, considering there were only 540 more cases added to our infected totals, i'd say that number is not that bad either, even though today's increase was more than double, VS yesterday.

EDIT

Added several countries to my chart data (click for full picture):




The chart now only starts showing from 40+ cases, thus removing the showing of countries' initial data that skews the viewing, as evidenced in the original graph posted here.


As before, each horizontal line signifies a doubling of cases VS the previous line so, and as an example, the roughly 3 lines difference between New Zealand and South Korea mean a difference of roughly 8 times in number of cases.

The 1st thing we can observe is how near horizontal both South Korea and New Zealand curves are: when they talk about "flatten the curve", they *really* mean it.

The 2nd thing is that it *appears* UK's curve continues to edge out USA as well as Sweden's for the unwanted title of "worst curve of the chart".


----------



## Tomgang (May 1, 2020)

Danish "haandsprit" is translated to Danish hand sanitizer.

Update from Denmark. Some of you are properly curies how it goes for a country now after two weeks of opening up. Bad news is RO has gone up from 0.6 before open up to 0.9 so virus is still under control. But it does set a limit to how much we can open up in phase two, but in return we cut open up for more in phase 1 than exspected.

Saturday last weeks numbers.
Todays numbers:
Total infected cases: 8,445
Recovered: 5,669
Total hospitalized: 285
Critical condition: 70 where 56 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 418
Total active cases: 2358

Todays numbers
Total infected cases: 9311
Recovered: 6729
Total hospitalized: 249
Critical condition: 61 where 44 are in respirator
Total Dead since first dead whas confirmed in early marts: 460
Total active cases: 2122

So in short, even after opening up. Number are still going down. Total cases as well as hospitalized after two weeks of opening up. Danish goverment are preparing to phase 2 opening and will come out with more info about next week. So it is still going the right way

Fight the virus, we do it in Denmark. Numbers shows it is possible, so keep social distance going while opening up, it does work. oh and i maybe have a new job on my hands, i hope. Has been to an employment meating at a company and hope to get answer next week.


----------



## EarthDog (May 1, 2020)

What is "RO"? 

What will be most telling is AFTER two weeks... it can take 2 weeks to show symptoms. Up until that point, you are generally still seeing the effects of the lockdowns. The 2-4 weeks from now will be telling. Here is to hoping that trend remains!


----------



## Tomgang (May 1, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> What is "RO"?
> 
> What will be most telling is AFTER two weeks... it can take 2 weeks to show symptoms. Up until that point, you are generally still seeing the effects of the lockdowns. The 2-4 weeks from now will be telling. Here is to hoping that trend remains!



RO or R naught is a medical measurement for how infections a virus or disease is. RO below 1 the virus is considered under control and dying out on its own. Above 1 the virus is not considered under control and still spreading among people faster than it dies out. So basic If RO is 2.4 means one infected person infected 2.4 other people while if ro is under 1 an infected person infect lest than one person and the virus shut die out over time. That is why it is so important to keep distance to keep to below 1. 

Mere here about it:








						What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections
					

R0 indicates how contagious a disease is. Learn how it works and the R0 values for various diseases.




					www.healthline.com
				




We have been under lock down for 6 weeks now and started to re open 2 weeks ago as some of the first countries to do so. So far its very promising for phase 2 opening up.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 1, 2020)

This is an interesting document produced by the CDC, whilst their approach is a little different than the R0 principles most of Europe are following, the end product is the same, there are predictions on increasing death rates based on contact reductions through restrictive measures, they are estimating death growths based on these contact reduction models, so even with restrictions remaining in place in the US the amount of continued deaths predicted are considerable dependant on model, less so with some.... whilst obviously this applies to the US, it is relative in terms of trajectory for anyone else in or coming out of a lockdown.









						Cases, Data, and Surveillance
					

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 1, 2020)

The last places on earth without coronavirus
					

Despite infecting more than 3 million people around the world, there are still 30 countries and territories that are yet to report a single case of coronavirus.




					graphics.reuters.com
				




There are 30 UN recognized countries/territories without a COVID-19 case.  All of them are tiny islands...except North Korea. 



Tatty_One said:


> This is an interesting document produced by the CDC, whilst their approach is a little different than the R0 principles most of Europe are following, the end product is the same, there are predictions on increasing death rates based on contact reductions through restrictive measures, they are estimating death growths based on these contact reduction models, so even with restrictions remaining in place in the US the amount of continued deaths predicted are considerable dependant on model, less so with some.... whilst obviously this applies to the US, it is relative in terms of trajectory for anyone else in or coming out of a lockdown.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The graph is a week old.  Based on where deaths are at now, it's tracking about center of that cluster (just above the aqua-colored line).


----------



## HTC (May 1, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25351 confirmed infected --- 306 more
- 1647 recovered --- 128 more
- 1007 fatalities --- 18 more
- 251269 suspected cases --- 3584 more
- 409961 tests taken --- 14190 more
- 3828 waiting for test results --- 34 more
- 29756 under watch from authorities --- 289 more
- 892 hospitalized --- *76 less*
- 154 in ICU --- *18 less*

We crossed the unwanted milestone of 1000 deaths 

On a brighter note, hospitalized number dropped significantly and ICU's number drop is "nothing to sneeze @".

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's my current graph of total infected from 13 countries, updated up to 30-04-2020 (click for full picture):



I don't plan to add any other countries to this chart but i'll leave in attach the current file from which i made the chart (had to Zip it because TPU doesn't accept LibreOfficeCalc files). Most of the data is taken from OP's Johns Hopkins University link but i resorted to WorldoMeter's data for Denmark's and Portugal's official site for Portugal's data. There's also some inconsistency with Spain's totals because, since yesterday, Spain "lost" over 26K infected cases, which i didn't reflect in my chart.

I've set it up with the formula's in place up to 18-06-2020 so that, should anyone add more day's data to it, all they have to do for it to show in the graph is change the X-axis *date* range to the last day of the inputted data and it will re-do the chart automatically.


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## Tatty_One (May 1, 2020)

Turkmenistan has or is declaring zero cases also, it's quite a large country roughly the size of the UK albeit with a small population of just under 6 million, it apparently closed all it's borders and airports late Jan early Feb, to be honest I wouldn't think they have a lot of air traffic in any case, we stopped off to refuel there on our way back to the UK after our Afghanistan tour...… very odd place in so much it was like stepping back into the 60's/70's cold war Eastern Europe.


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## EarthDog (May 1, 2020)

Tomgang said:


> So far its very promising for phase 2 opening up.


I hope your optimism is true. As was said, you really cant start measuring if things are working/better until 2+ weeks after lockdown or after it was raised... from this point forward is when you should see a change.

Fingers crossed!


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 1, 2020)

Well, Louisiana has opted for no changes in its stay at home stance, and today we had one of the biggest increases in a long while/ 710 new infections.  I’ll have to update all numbers in a bit.


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## FordGT90Concept (May 1, 2020)

Qatar (498) passed up Spain (492) for cases per 100k people.  Belgium is still #1 for deaths (66) per 100k people.


----------



## EarthDog (May 1, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Well, Louisiana has opted for no changes in its stay at home stance, and today we had one of the biggest increases in a long while/ 710 new infections.  I’ll have to update all numbers in a bit.


Remember, there are tons of other factors that go into and there will always be anomalous spikes and dips. It's the overall trends that are important.


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 1, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Remember, there are tons of other factors that go into and there will always be anomalous spikes and dips. It's the overall trends that are important.


True enough.  Just thought I would mention it as an anomaly officials weren't expecting.

May 1, 2020 for Louisiana.  Update compares numbers to April 21st.

28,711 cases (27,660 on April 29th)
1,802 deaths (1,802on April 29th)
1,607 hospitalized 1,629 on April 29th)
230 on ventilators (244 on April 29th)
168,251  tests have been conducted  (158,568 on April 29th)  -in a population of 4.6 million

17,303 Presumed recovered (17,303 on April 29th)  _presumably this is only being updated weekly









						Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health
					

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.




					ldh.la.gov


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 2, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Qatar (498) passed up Spain (492) for cases per 100k people.  Belgium is still #1 for deaths (66) per 100k people.


Spain (now 499) passed Qatar up.


----------



## Gmr_Chick (May 2, 2020)

Tomgang said:


> View attachment 153435Danish "haandsprit" is translated to Danish hand sanitizer.
> 
> Update from Denmark. Some of you are properly curies how it goes for a country now after two weeks of opening up. Bad news is RO has gone up from 0.6 before open up to 0.9 so virus is still under control. But it does set a limit to how much we can open up in phase two, but in return we cut open up for more in phase 1 than exspected.
> 
> ...




Unfortunately, here in the US some disgruntled idiots care more about exercising their "civil liberties" and refusing to comply with their state protocol than they do about the virus and the country's continued rise in both cases and deaths. Our "president" also doesn't care, neither do certain states' governors. I will say this about my state: For as overcrowded and expensive it is, at least our governor has a good head on his shoulders. 

Sadly though, as a country, I don't see our situation improving much. There's only so much each state can do by themselves. It's absolutely crazy just how non-existent support from the US government has been during this pandemic. I get that the whole GOP motto is "less government is better!" but this is ridiculous!


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 2, 2020)

Almost all of the bad outbreaks around me are centered on meat packers.  Sioux Falls has ridiculously high number of cases because of the Smithfield packer there.  Tyson's Waterloo packer is closed indefinitely and on the same day a similar breakout was clustered around a packer in Tennessee.  Meat is already in short supply and it's guaranteed to get worse:








						Where's the beef ... and the chicken: Should we worry about a meat shortage?
					

As the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the economy, it could impact Americans' ability to find and pay for meat.



					www.usatoday.com
				




Trump used the Defense Production Act to order packers to stay open but, as stated with Tyson, you can't just have an infectious agent present and continue running the facility.  It needs to be scrubbed down from top to bottom with new employees being trained to replace those are out sick.

TL;DR: the fundamentals of the economy are fracturing.  Without them, there's panic.  With panic, there's chaos. With chaos, governance collapses.

The "president" is stuck between voters tired of isolation, health officials saying the quarantine is necessary, and the fact that things people need don't materialize out of thin air.  Black and white approach won't work anymore.  It needs to be shades of gray which about 1/3 of the states are voluntarily doing.


There's only two ways this ends:
1) herd immunity which requires infections
2) vaccination which won't be ready until next year at the absolute earliest

There is a third way that no one wants:
3) economic collapse and every man is for himself, the impact of the virus at that point is an afterthought

TL;DR: TL;DR: The status quo is a recipe for ruin.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 2, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Almost all of the bad outbreaks around me are centered on meat packers.  Sioux Falls has ridiculously high number of cases because of the Smithfield packer there.  South Sioux City has a Tyson packer which has been forced to shutter for four days because of COVID outbreak and the cases there are feeding into relatively high incidence rate in Sioux City (50 hospitalizations as of yesterday).  Meat is already in short supply and it's guaranteed to get worse:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



1) is already out the door, people who caught it are still not immune shortly after. Its a seasonal virus like the flu in that sense. You're never immune for that long. And with the high infection rate, the periodic immunity/resistance is not going to benefit us in any way as systems are overburdened long before someone 'catches it again' in the same season.

The only approach pre vaccination, is accepting a certain death rate, refining and reconsidering our stance on what life is preserved and when - an nearly impossible discussion and one we should have had years ago to be timely. The alternative to that, born out of necessity, is social distancing. Which works, but also really doesn't in every other way. Society is full of situations, jobs, areas where this is impossible unless you're going around in a space suit. There are also massive psychological and social implications. It might damage us mentally and the effect can easily be worse than the virus itself.

This is also, I think, the basis under much of the opposition against lockdowns. The virus hits risk groups that are unlikely to provide any benefit to the same economy we are putting on hold 'for them'. Its not just for them, of course, but that is an indirect problem we have yet to encounter. In that sense it really already is every man for himself, despite the community efforts.

As for the economical systems fracturing... perhaps, perhaps its a good thing. The way and means we use to preserve our way of life are damaging. Meat being one of the primary contributors. (and I LOVE my steak...)



Gmr_Chick said:


> Unfortunately, here in the US some disgruntled idiots care more about exercising their "civil liberties" and refusing to comply with their state protocol than they do about the virus and the country's continued rise in both cases and deaths. Our "president" also doesn't care, neither do certain states' governors. I will say this about my state: For as overcrowded and expensive it is, at least our governor has a good head on his shoulders.
> 
> Sadly though, as a country, I don't see our situation improving much. There's only so much each state can do by themselves. It's absolutely crazy just how non-existent support from the US government has been during this pandemic. I get that the whole GOP motto is "less government is better!" but this is ridiculous!



Less government, and yet gov spending always goes up. Anyone saying less about his own job is lying


----------



## Tomgang (May 2, 2020)

Gmr_Chick said:


> Unfortunately, here in the US some disgruntled idiots care more about exercising their "civil liberties" and refusing to comply with their state protocol than they do about the virus and the country's continued rise in both cases and deaths. Our "president" also doesn't care, neither do certain states' governors. I will say this about my state: For as overcrowded and expensive it is, at least our governor has a good head on his shoulders.
> 
> Sadly though, as a country, I don't see our situation improving much. There's only so much each state can do by themselves. It's absolutely crazy just how non-existent support from the US government has been during this pandemic. I get that the whole GOP motto is "less government is better!" but this is ridiculous!



There are a few in Denmark as well that act totally stupid. They are not keeping the proper distance and gather I large groups as well. Really stupid, but at least police has taken measures in hand as giving tickets to those that just can't keep there distance or stay away from larger groups. Max group size allowed in Denmark so far is 10 people per group. There are all ways a few people that totally on perpose chose to only follow there own rules.

Take the anti-vaxxer's, I really don't get them. When we have a proper vaccine, I am definitely going to get one. The more that get one, the sooner the virus will be less a thread.

I have seen the demonstration that is happening in the US. I can understand people want to get back to job as money runs out. It seems US government has trouble following with giant unemployment in US so they are way behing with benefit checks and If I am correct, unemployed can only get these unemployment checks for 3-6 months depending on what state it is. In Denmark you can get these checks for up to two years normally, but at these times they have raise that time with 4 months so far and hope they will ake it longer cause this crisis seems to be a long one and jobs are incredibly rare and hard to get. All throw i might have managed to find a job, have been to a employment metting this week and will get a answer next week. So I hope this will bring me new job. But i can not say demonstrations not will happen in Denmark as well. Infact as this crisis goes on, more and more people will lose faith in there government and we will over time see increased civil disobedience and crime as people losing paintiense to government and getting desperate for money and food. I am specifically concerned for countries that are not rich. I have seen as well us food banks seems to be running out of food and stores as well. That is definitely a huge problem and will be meet with demonstration, more crime and angry desperate people trying to survive. 

Danish government at least care about people so they have done things to prevent people losing there jobs and companies going bankrupt. Unfortunately they can't save every one. Some companies have locked forever and some jobs are lost permanently and more will come.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 2, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> 1) is already out the door, people who caught it are still not immune shortly after. Its a seasonal virus like the flu in that sense. You're never immune for that long. And with the high infection rate, the periodic immunity/resistance is not going to benefit us in any way as systems are overburdened long before someone 'catches it again' in the same season.


See this post. TL;DR: Influenza anti-bodies start eliminating the virus within days usually.  Coronaviruses take weeks.  Influenza mutates extremely fast; coronaviruses do not.  Both resources I found said that actual reinfection once the body creates "neutralizing antibodies" for the coronavirus is not possible.

Coronaviruses are evasive but they're not like HIV or influenza.  Case in point: the H1N1 strain (aka Influenza A) that went around 2019-2020 was the exact same strain that caused an epidemic in 2009-2010.  Herd immunity + vaccinations stopped it from getting as bad this time around because people that had it or were vaccinated wouldn't get it again.


----------



## Tomgang (May 2, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> I hope your optimism is true. As was said, you really cant start measuring if things are working/better until 2+ weeks after lockdown or after it was raised... from this point forward is when you should see a change.
> 
> Fingers crossed!



My optimism is real, but as I also said. I don't expect phase 2 will open up nearly as much as phase 1. Cause RO is already close to 1 one now and we need to keep that below 1. Phase 2 will be mostly about opening up the economy where infection is the least risk of increasing. So things like fitness is not going to open up.

This is second week of reopen. Next week when phase 2 is unveiled will be the third week after reopen and phase 2 will not start until week 4 after reopen. So there will be going 1 week more before we open up for more and maybe government decides to delay by two weeks. We really not know before when they unveil there plans.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 2, 2020)

The COVID-19 testing challenge
					

Why it’s so hard to overcome testing shortages in the United States




					graphics.reuters.com
				



USA did roughly 6 million tests and 1/6th of those came back positive.

USA ranks fairly low in terms of deaths despite having 1/3 of the infections in the world:




UK is already worse than Spain and Italy.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 2, 2020)

Problem is that many countries report very differently, so some only report deaths based on having been tested with a positive result, some only report deaths in hospitals (as they tend to all have tested positive if only on admission), I don't know why, perhaps it's because it is not absolutely certain Covid-19 was the root cause without the test, my understanding is that many countries follow this approach...…. until recently the UK only reported deaths in hospital, we now report all deaths, in hospital, in the home, in residential care settings and in Hospices, I don't think everyone does that.

You will also see that the UK has the worst recovery rate, that's because we don't record recovery rates, 90%+ of those infected stay at home, they will have had a test if they showed the symptoms and tested positive but the majority of them once recovered do not request or have the means until recently to get a 2nd test so there is an empty reporting space so to speak.  We now test 100,000+ a day so do have the means for those 2nd tests for those infected at home but they still have to be requested.

one related example in death rate anomalies...……….









						Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ
					

In Italy, the death rate from Covid-19 is more than 10 times greater than in Germany. Why does the death rate vary so much internationally?




					www.bbc.com


----------



## ozkisses (May 2, 2020)

I read an article last week that said the UK is expecting triple the deaths than they had at the time.

The USA have a dismal recovery % compared to a lot of other countries. They also have a long way to go before they hit triple digit numbers per 24 hours. They will be in the triple digit daily for a while before they will be seeing some hope.

Very sad for all.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 2, 2020)

ozkisses said:


> *I read an article last week that said the UK is expecting triple the deaths than they had at the time.*
> 
> The USA have a dismal recovery % compared to a lot of other countries. They also have a long way to go before they hit triple digit numbers per 24 hours. They will be in the triple digit daily for a while before they will be seeing some hope.
> 
> Very sad for all.


That was said to ward off the media pushing for a release of lockdown as a "worst case scenario" based on an immediate full release from restrictions.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 2, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> You will also see that the UK has the worst recovery rate, that's because we don't record recovery rates, 90%+ of those infected stay at home...


Same in United States.



Tatty_One said:


> We now test 100,000+ a day so do have the means for those 2nd tests for those infected at home but they still have to be requested.











						Totals for the US
					

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.




					covidtracking.com
				



200k-300k tests per day and states are now insisting more people get tested because doctors aren't ordering many so there's unused testing capacity.



ozkisses said:


> The USA have a dismal recovery % compared to a lot of other countries.


Because USA doesn't keep track of recoveries other than people that were admitted and later released.  People that have it mild are sent home and told to quarantine for 14 days.  They're never reported anywhere as "recovered."



ozkisses said:


> They also have a long way to go before they hit triple digit numbers per 24 hours.


There's 320ish million people in the USA and only 1.1 million have tested positive.
For comparison, Australia has 26ish million people and 6,767 positive cases.


----------



## ozkisses (May 2, 2020)

@ Tatty_One I didn't realise that and it makes sense. My heart went out to the UK when I read it but then again I am in country where the majority are doing the right thing so when we hear that one person has died overnight it is upsetting. I know our final numbers will be higher but hopefully not by much though.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 2, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Same in United States.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Positive's is relevant to the amount of people tested, not the overall population and in part that is the problem for most of us, some of our scientists are saying that a true picture of the endgame will not be in sight until at least 25% of the population has been tested, we have done badly initially at testing, very badly to be fair but we have as I said improved significantly recently, yesterday we tested nearly 150k, for a country of the population of the US 200 - 300k is not high at all, in fact it is low, for us (UK) the aim should be 250k per day, Germany have been doing 200k - 500k for weeks, I am no expert but you need to be doing 1m+ ideally...……… but that of course is if it fits with whatever your particular strategy is.


----------



## ozkisses (May 2, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> There's 320ish million people in the USA and only 1.1 million have tested positive.
> For comparison, Australia has 26ish million people and 6,767 positive cases.



That's true but each country has it's own mores and ours are very different to yours, that isn't a fault on either side, just how it is I guess. You are cheering % rates while we are all feeling the deaths and feeling saddened by it.

If the tables were turned and our population and death rates were higher we would be feeling it. I may be wrong but I doubt with the nature of our people that anyone would make a comment like we are doing ok % wise when 2,000 of our countrymen are dying daily.

Like I said, it isn't a fault on either side it is how a culture develops in all ways and ours are very different. We are known as the lucky country (and yes the land down under) and currently are mourning 93 lives lost and feeling blessed that number isn't higher.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 2, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> See this post. TL;DR: Influenza anti-bodies start eliminating the virus within days usually.  Coronaviruses take weeks.  Influenza mutates extremely fast; coronaviruses do not.  Both resources I found said that actual reinfection once the body creates "neutralizing antibodies" for the coronavirus is not possible.
> 
> Coronaviruses are evasive but they're not like HIV or influenza.  Case in point: the H1N1 strain (aka Influenza A) that went around 2019-2020 was the exact same strain that caused an epidemic in 2009-2010.  Herd immunity + vaccinations stopped it from getting as bad this time around because people that had it or were vaccinated wouldn't get it again.



So far there is zero. Zero! Evidence that the current wave of infections has created herd immunity of any meaningful percentage.

In addition, reinfection is being investigated and seems possible.









						WHO investigating reports of COVID-19 reinfection
					

The World Health Organization said Saturday it's investigating reports that some individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 have been reinfected.




					www.upi.com
				




I also found numerous sources out of Feb this year but this one is much more recent, so prob more relevant.

Either way, consensus thus far is that herd immunity will not be saving us at all. Even just because the pressure on society would run to critical long before you reach any substantial percentage. Forget it.


----------



## HTC (May 2, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25190 confirmed infected --- ?????
- 1671 recovered --- 24 more
- 1023 fatalities --- 16 more
- 252728 suspected cases --- 1459 more
- 426836 tests taken --- 16875 more
- 3761 waiting for test results --- *67 less*
- 27895 under watch from authorities --- *1861 less*
- 855 hospitalized --- *37 less*
- 150 in ICU --- *4 less*

Dunno why but the regular chart i have been posting with the daily numbers has been replaced by that which i posted of today's results: this only gives partial information and omits hospitalized, ICU, and other numbers, which is why i placed "?????" and "N/A" in the relevant places, VS yesterday.

In a classic example of "how *NOT* to check the country's results", our Health Minister announced we had incorrectly tallied twice 422 results since last week (since 25th April, to be precise), and that our country had an increase today of only 0.8% and that our current infected count is now 25190.

Except ... the math doesn't add up ... because, if we take yesterday's total and remove 422 cases and then add 0.8% to the total, we get 25128 and not 25190 ...

Today's the last day of Portugal's emergency state, which has been in effect for the last 45 days. It had to be renewed 3 times because, by law, it can't be longer than 15 days. From tomorrow on, we'll be under "calamity state" and some extra powers the government had during emergency state will be removed.



Tatty_One said:


> *Problem is that many countries report very differently, so some only report deaths based on having been tested with a positive result, some only report deaths in hospitals (as they tend to all have tested positive if only on admission), I don't know why, perhaps it's because it is not absolutely certain Covid-19 was the root cause without the test, my understanding is that many countries follow this approach...…. until recently the UK only reported deaths in hospital, we now report all deaths, in hospital, in the home, in residential care settings and in Hospices, I don't think everyone does that.*
> 
> You will also see that the UK has the worst recovery rate, that's because we don't record recovery rates, 90%+ of those infected stay at home, they will have had a test if they showed the symptoms and tested positive but the majority of them once recovered do not request or have the means until recently to get a 2nd test so there is an empty reporting space so to speak.  We now test 100,000+ a day so do have the means for those 2nd tests for those infected at home but they still have to be requested.
> 
> ...



Our President was clear on that since before the emergency state became in effect, IIRC: regardless of whatever else the patients had, if they had COVID-19 and ended up dying, the official cause of death is "by COVID-19". This applies to everywhere, and not just in Hospitals: just like UK currently does.

EDIT

Managed to track down some of the missing data from here.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 2, 2020)

It is an irony that when looking at statistics, we're using the most unequal of playing fields. If we want to look at pure logic, it's possible to get a mortality rate of 100% -- as long as you only test those that die. The more tests that are completed, the more you push down the 'mortality rate'. The only feasible metric to use is the deaths per capita and even then, that requires honest, or at least correct and complete (and non-politically motivated) reporting of data.

For example, UK figures jumped this week as we added in care home deaths. Comparing country to country is an ineffective way to discuss this pandemic, no better than trying to equate scores between rugby and football, or Baseball and Basketball.

The lockdown has massively decreased the spread of the virus and the problem is that people don't see the catastrophe of what would have happened if we didn't control it (a partuclarly bad trait of humans to fail to see the flip-side of a decision). R<1 would still be R3 and our systems would have collapsed anyway. The choices are pretty stark: Control the spread and suffer the economic consequence, versus, don't control the spread and suffer the economic consequence AND see many more deaths.

There was never going to be a good way out of this. The economy would have suffered regardless as industry would have crumbled under an ever-increasing shortage of labour (even taking two weeks off for mild sickness). A perfect example is how many public transport drivers in the UK have died. Less drivers = less transport = no work for some = diminished output. Now spread those deaths at a far higher rate to all sectors and you have a breakdown of confidence and service, without Government assistance.


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## Tatty_One (May 2, 2020)

As for herd immunity, in the earlier days of the Pandemic, herd immunity strategies or theories were an excuse to low test in some countries (in part possibly my own but we U turned within 2 weeks thankfully) perhaps because of test kit availability, test low and hope and pray enough people get infected and live to eventually establish the herd, the problem with that even if it eventually works is that the more that get infected the more die so whether intentional or not it can appear that you save money and effort on testing at the premeditated cost of your citizen's lives.


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## sepheronx (May 2, 2020)

If anyone is interested here is a list of number of Covid tests done per country 









						Tests for COVID-19 most impacted countries worldwide 2022 | Statista
					

As of December 22, 2022, the United States had performed around 1.15 billion tests for COVID-19, the highest number of any country worldwide.




					www.statista.com


----------



## Tatty_One (May 2, 2020)

sepheronx said:


> If anyone is interested here is a list of number of Covid tests done per country
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Very useful thanks, just shows where the UK have got in the last 7-10 days after a dismal start because as of yesterday we hit 1,129,907 tested but I think all of us are going to fail in the imaginary 25% of population tested within the first 100 days, not that that is a target but a guideline, not even sure if that is realistic or just an idea a group of scientists had a few weeks ago.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 2, 2020)

sepheronx said:


> If anyone is interested here is a list of number of Covid tests done per country
> 
> 
> 
> ...



A quick analysis of tests per population for the above graph (top 8 total tests) is:

Italy - 3.16%
Germany - 3.04%
Spain - 3.03%
Russia - 2.39%
USA - 1.85%
UK - 1.21%
Turkey - 1.18%
India - 0.06%

Also, you have to factor in the resources of larger economies

(Figures as scale of GDP as % of global economy)

US - 24%
China - 15%
Japan - 6%
Germany - 4.5% (highest per capita in world)
India - 3.28%
UK - 3.26%

So really, nothing in isolation makes sense. Rich countries you'd expect to do more testing but per capita - in hard stats, they do not.


----------



## HTC (May 2, 2020)

sepheronx said:


> If anyone is interested here is a list of number of Covid tests done per country
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Unfortunately, this gives the total tests but NOT tests per capita, which is a KEY detail.

For example: Portugal has roughly 1/32 of the population of USA but has just under 1/16 of USA's amount of tests performed, so it has almost double the tests of USA and this is by the data provided in the link (April 30th).



the54thvoid said:


> *There was never going to be a good way out of this.* T*he economy would have suffered regardless* as industry would have crumbled under an ever-increasing shortage of labour (even taking two weeks off for mild sickness). A perfect example is how many public transport drivers in the UK have died. Less drivers = less transport = no work for some = diminished output. Now spread those deaths at a far higher rate to all sectors and you have a breakdown of confidence and service, without Government assistance.



Agreed.

That's why i think New Zealand has had the best approach to this:









						New Zealand sets sights on coronavirus elimination after 2 weeks of lockdown
					

New modeling shows there's a real chance of that happening.




					www.axios.com
				




Severe measures right @ the beginning of the outbreak lead to the measures being in place for a much shorter period, so it's actually far *FAR* cheaper this way.

EDIT









						Three reasons why Jacinda Ardern's coronavirus response has been a masterclass in crisis leadership
					

As someone who researches and teaches leadership, I’d argue New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is giving most Western politicians a masterclass in crisis leadership.




					theconversation.com


----------



## Tatty_One (May 2, 2020)

Another interesting one, Government stimulus and financial aid packages to support people and the economy as a percentage of last years GDP......……….









						Infographic: How Coronavirus Stimulus Packages Compare
					

This chart show stimulus packages passed because of the coronavirus pandemic in selected countries (2020).




					www.statista.com


----------



## Xzibit (May 2, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Another interesting one, Government stimulus and financial aid packages to support people and the economy as a percentage of last years GDP......……….
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Where are they counting from.

German GDP was 3.8t - 2,307,954
USA was 21.4t - 2,999,794

That's a lot of debt being accumulated by countries.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 2, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> Where are they counting from.
> 
> German GDP was 3.8t - 2,307,954
> USA was 21.4t - 2,999,794
> ...


Dunno, it may mean net???  Why do you think Mr Trump is so keen in getting America working again?  Countries need to get back on track, the debate is at what human cost.  Apparently without it there would be 3 times that cost to the economy, dependant of course on what countries were stimulating within their economies and that is excluding the "human" cost, I say 3 times more but that is based on UK estimates, our package is to end of June but if the economy and the pandemic's impact on the economy continue severely beyond June (which it's likely to do) then our Stimulus will double, I think to around 1.1 Trillion which is like a third of our GDP (if it happens) and we are ranked 5 in the world (biggest GDP), in essence it could also mean that doing nothing means it will take 3 times longer to recover, some speculate worse cases around 10 years to recover, if that was even remotely close, countries that do nothing might take 30 years!  each country obviously will have their own approach and might well stimulate less but recover as fast..... who knows.

But speculate is another word for "guess"


----------



## HTC (May 2, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> Where are they counting from.
> 
> German GDP was 3.8t - 2,307,954
> USA was 21.4t - 2,999,794
> ...


That's why i suggested this: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/post-4249228

And this: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/post-4249284


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 3, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> In addition, reinfection is being investigated and seems possible.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Old source (April 11). Mine was May 1.

This here is what they call an "evolving" situation.   Generalities a month ago are being replaced with specifics concerning COVID-19 now.



Vayra86 said:


> I also found numerous sources out of Feb this year but this one is much more recent, so prob more relevant.


China, Japan, and South Korea reported it but only South Korea published their findings AFAIK and South Korea determined it was due to testing failures, not reinfection.  Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy is mirroring the immunity assertion (see below).



Vayra86 said:


> Either way, consensus thus far is that herd immunity will not be saving us at all. Even just because the pressure on society would run to critical long before you reach any substantial percentage. Forget it.


I'll just leave this here for a reality check:








						The coronavirus pandemic could last up to 2 years, according to US experts. They predict we may see a 2nd, larger wave of infections this fall.
					

A Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy study outlined three scenarios for the end of the COVID-19 outbreak. It could last until 2022.




					www.businessinsider.com
				






All those healthcare professionals aren't taking things into consideration like this:








						"I'm starving now": World faces unprecedented hunger crisis amid coronavirus pandemic
					

There's "a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself," says the U.N. food agency's chief.




					www.cbsnews.com
				



Millions will die of malnutrition unless things change.  Millions more will die in the chaos that follows.  We're at a pivot point now of living in fear or confronting it come hell or high water.

The goal of the lockdown was never to stop it, but to buy time to prepare to face it (especially ventilators).  We're quickly running out of road to kick the can down.




Tatty_One said:


> Why do you think Mr Trump is so keen in getting America working again?


Maybe because, for example, 37% of Hawaii's population is now unemployed and it's only getting worse?  These are numbers challenge the Great Depression.  We're digging ourselves a hole that will take decades to climb out of and much of that self inflincted via quarantine.


----------



## xman2007 (May 3, 2020)

Seems if you post something in here that goes with the status quo then it's allowed to fly but post anything else that goes against the grain and you get shot down for posting fake news and trolling, by what authority are all these "supposed" news sites verified, I can show you just as many other sources that contradict everything that's being posted and the world is sick of this now, we can't lock ourselves away forever because of a virus that is no more detrimental to health than that of the flu when you're talking about mortality rate. Not too mention Africa and other less rich/developed countries are not enforcing the same lockdown rules as Europe and USA, millions won't die from corona because of malnutrition, this is scare mongering, there is no verifiable, reliable information to back this up, here's a stat for you: the most deaths per million of capita for coronavirus is Belgium with a whopping 675 deaths per million population.


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## FordGT90Concept (May 3, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> Not too mention Africa and other less rich/developed countries are not enforcing the same lockdown rules as Europe and USA, millions won't die from corona because of malnutrition, this is scare mongering, there is no verifiable, reliable information to back this up


Didn't see the embedded link?  Here's a quote:


			
				CBS News said:
			
		

> The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) has warned that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation – double last year's figures.


Have another source:








						Malnutrition identified as root cause of 3.1 million deaths among children
					

Weekend hunger summit in London prefaced by publication in the Lancet of shocking new figures on undernutrition




					www.theguardian.com
				





> Malnutrition is the underlying cause of death for at least 3.1 million children, accounting for 45% of all deaths among children under the age of five and stunting growth among a further 165 million, according to a set of reports released ahead of a nutrition summit in London.


That was in 2013.  At least 6 million children ("millions") are going to die of malnutrition if supply chains don't start moving again.

If you want to hide in your house forever, whatever, but if people want to get back to work, _there is a need_.


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## xman2007 (May 3, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Didn't see the embedded link?  Here's a quote:
> 
> Have another source:
> 
> ...


I'm saying the same as you, lockdown has done what it needs to we can't close down the worlds economies any longer for whats, let's face it, little more deadly than the annual flu virus, but things are being totally taken out of context and so-called facts being reported when in reality the sources are no more in the know than the average joe off the street

Hopefully united nations is to be more trusted than WHO eh?


----------



## Vayra86 (May 3, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Old source (April 11). Mine was May 1.
> 
> This here is what they call an "evolving" situation.   Generalities a month ago are being replaced with specifics concerning COVID-19 now.
> 
> ...



Millions always died from malnutrition, but not in your backyard so nobody ever cared.

Sorry, but this 'economy first' movement is a _bizarre reflex of trying to preserve your way of life. _Not lives. And it is a trend that is probably the strongest in the US. Its not my reality. Its also badly constructed. How are your healthcare systems going to survive?  Gonna pray to a higher power that the virus goes on the desired 'slow burn' because no evidence so far suggests it will??

Get a grip... I understand the sentiment of losing wealth. But on what grounds, so we can eat steak again?! Or your job continues? If it does, it is at the expense of others. Comforting...


----------



## the54thvoid (May 3, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> Seems if you post something in here that goes with the status quo then it's allowed to fly but post anything else that goes against the grain and you get shot down for posting fake news and trolling, by what authority are all these "supposed" news sites verified, I can show you just as many other sources that contradict everything that's being posted and the world is sick of this now, we can't lock ourselves away forever because of a virus that is no more detrimental to health than that of the flu when you're talking about mortality rate. Not too mention Africa and other less rich/developed countries are not enforcing the same lockdown rules as Europe and USA, millions won't die from corona because of malnutrition, this is scare mongering, there is no verifiable, reliable information to back this up, here's a stat for you: the most deaths per million of capita for coronavirus is Belgium with a whopping 675 deaths per million population.



Posting here is for stats and maps for the spread. Everything else can live in the lounge. 

As a reminder why Covid is treated differently, it's transmission rate is far higher, so even if you want to assume the same mortality rate, you must factor in two variables that in reality make it far worse:

1 - it affects up to 3 times as many people = 3 times as many deaths.
2 - it has no vaccine or drug immuntity, so unlike flu, everyone can theoretically get it.

Nobody here wishes the lockdown to continue longer than is necessary, and common sense dictates that countries will, and are, opening up. Each demographic, however, must look to their own first before judging others. So, for example, in cares homes, it's an absolute death sentence (they get flu jabs, not for this). In densely populated areas, especially with poverty, it is also very bad, as poverty is assocaietd with other co-morbidities. If we had a vaccine, it would be no worse than flu - but we dont have a vaccine, so ignoring demographic specificity is idiotic, and therefore, supporting a general re-opening, is a means to prolong and worsen the crisis.

However, left to good conrtol (New Zealand springs to mind), it can be beaten fast. In rural areas with low pop density, sure - fire in - get back to work. But it's all got to be measured up.

As for Belgium - it's population density is 991 people per square mile. USA is 94. (Spain 243, Italy 532, UK 727). These factors have substantial impact on deaths.

For shits'n'giggles, New York pop density is 26,403 per square mile (London is only 4542).


----------



## Tatty_One (May 3, 2020)

I think everyone acknowledges the need to try to re-boot all of our economies as quickly as possible, I certainly do but there will be a human cost involved with that and it might be significant, it is not easy for any President or Prime Minister to take a decision that will cost lives, especially as at this point there can only be speculation on just how many lives, for them, apart from the humanity of it all it's a lose..... lose situation, does an elected official not get re-elected because they did not  get the economy up and running again quickly enough or do they not get re-elected because in doing so XXX more people lost their lives, remembering of course it does become a very personal issue if you have lost a loved one because of this virus.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 3, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> These were the deaths in the worst five countries one week ago.
> 
> USA - 40615 (Deaths)
> Italy - 23660
> ...



I used to believe in death counts, but this WashPo article suggests that the US is undercounting deaths by an order of magnitude.

My area has a decline in the hospital-beds being used, but an increase in COVID19 detection + death rate. Testing has become more widespread, and deaths are a *trailing* indicator (it takes ~3 to 4 weeks to die from COVID19). So the death count is a discussion of how bad things were 3 to 4 weeks ago.

The hospital-beds used in your area is probably the best estimate for how bad COVID19 is. As long as the local hospital system hasn't been overwhelmed yet. Both hospital-beds and ICU beds are trailing indicators (it takes 1 or 2 weeks before your symptoms appear and become bad enough to go to the hospital), but less trailing than deaths.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true
		


I'm sure Italy, UK, and other countries are also undercounting deaths. I'm not sure how to normalize numbers across countries anymore.



the54thvoid said:


> As for Belgium - it's population density is 991 people per square mile. USA is 94. (Spain 243, Italy 532, UK 727). These factors have substantial impact on deaths.



The wildcard is that the virus is beginning to spread in rural communities in the USA. Rural communities barely have hospital beds. Anyone who has visited Rural America knows that some hospitals out there only have 5 beds covering an area of ~50 miles... and probably no ICU beds (relying upon the "big cities" for ICU support or special equipment). The virus is arguably scarier in an area with less healthcare. If you get COVID19 out there, you're gonna have to drive 2-hours to get good treatment.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 3, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I used to believe in death counts, but this WashPo article suggests that the US is undercounting deaths by an order of magnitude.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Pretty much everyone will be undercounting but in most cases I'd argue it's not political, rather a logistical nightmare.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 3, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Pretty much everyone will be undercounting but in most cases I'd argue it's not political, rather a logistical nightmare.



I agree. I know a few people working at the CDC and they undercount deaths on a regular basis. Hurricane Maria, Katrina, Opioids, etc. etc. Its their job to go over the numbers again and again and try to move closer to the truth. People don't realize how difficult it is to come up with the numbers, or the amount of work needed to get good statistics.

In particular, my close friends were working on the "rapid response" numbers, getting numbers out to the public in a month instead of a year. A few years ago, CDC would take a year to get these death statistics out to the public, but now they move at a monthly pace. But getting death counts per month is still too slow, so people are relying upon the media and unstandardized local sources to get weekly, or daily, death counts.

There's no way in hell that these daily counts are anywhere close to accurate. They will inevitably be undercounting deaths.

-------

Given the extreme lockdown measures that have been imposed, it only makes sense to use non-standard daily numbers. Besides, we don't really care about the "accuracy" of the death counts, we just need them to be consistent enough to know if we're getting better, or worse. If we get better, then we know we might be able to reopen soon. If it gets worse, then we need to stay locked down for a bit longer. Yeah, it means we're making decisions on inaccurate data, but does anyone have a better idea?

Making a decision on bad data is better than no data at all.


----------



## HTC (May 3, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25282 confirmed infected --- 92 more
- 1689 recovered --- 18 more
- 1043 fatalities --- 20 more
- 252889 suspected cases --- 161 more
- 426836 tests taken --- no change
- 3691 waiting for test results --- *70 less*
- 25324 under watch from authorities --- *2571 less*
- 851 hospitalized --- 1 more
- 144 in ICU --- *6 less*

Portugal's official site is now working again: the good news is that we had the 1st 2-digit-only increase in cases since March 16.

Portugal now manufactures 1M face masks per day. However, dunno what grade are these: surgical, "community", N95? It's non the less a vast improvement over before this pandemic.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 3, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> They will inevitably be undercounting deaths.


In the USA, likely overcounting because the government has incentivized attributing deaths to COVID-19 even if that wasn't the cause.  Example: somebody dies of pneumonia, tests positive for COVID-19, and was diagnosed with COPD, COVID-19 would go down as the cause of death even though COPD is what allowed COVID-19 to push them over the edge.  If they caught influenza-A instead of COVID-19 at that time, it would have been influenza-A that pushed them over; however, if the patient didn't have COPD, they likely would have survived both.  Cause of death, therefore, was COPD with COVID-19 a contributing factor.

Another example: someone dies in a car accident.  They discover COVID-19 in the autopsy and it is put down as the cause of death even though it literally didn't even contribute.  How does COVID-19 cause a car accident?

And then we have all of the people that test positive and get sent home to self quarantine for 14 days.  The vast majority don't die and they should be counted against mortality rates by increasing the denominator, but they aren't.

This is the most accurate way to describe the situation: mortality rates best reflect the kind of cases (usually) that make people go to a hospital or clinic.  In other words, it only shows the worst case scenarios, not the typical scenarios (which according to Johns Hopkins are asymptomatic to moderate).

This is likely true for everywhere on Earth because testing capacity is still very limited.


TL;DR: odds are overcounting deaths (numerator) and undercounting cases not requiring hospitalization (denominator).  Together that means mortality rates are much lower than reported.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Making a decision on bad data is better than no data at all.


Three Mile Island and Chernobyl would like to have a word.


			
				Three Miles Island accident said:
			
		

> Despite the valve being stuck open, a light on the control panel ostensibly indicated that the valve was closed.





			
				Chernobyl disaster said:
			
		

> While the emergency scram system that would insert all control rods to shut down the reactor could still be activated manually (through the "AZ-5" switch), the automated system that would ordinarily do the same had been mostly disabled to maintain the power level, and many other automated and even passive safety features of the reactor had been bypassed.



No data = Figure out why you have no data and fix it.  At worst, a decision is delayed.
Bad data = Bad decision guarenteed.

But that's hindsight, solid data is finally pouring in from all fields and the aggregate data points towards opening up.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 3, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> In the USA, likely overcounting because the government has incentivized attributing deaths to COVID-19 even if that wasn't the cause.  Example: somebody dies of pneumonia, tests positive for COVID-19, and was diagnosed with COPD, COVID-19 would go down as the cause of death even though COPD is what allowed COVID-19 to push them over the edge.



Lets take New York City and start to actually discuss the situation. New York City (and many other locations) have at least 4 different numbers to talk about.

1. CDC's death count (Federal Government)
2. The New York State's death count
3. New York City's death count (In this case: two different counts. "probable" and "confirmed")
4. Media (and many other's) death count.

None of these four numbers are synchronized, none of the four numbers have the same methodology, and therefore all the numbers are different. #4 is a catch-all term, the Washington Post will obviously report different numbers than New York Post.

---------

Obviously, you have qualms with someone's numbers. The first step in resolving our discussion, is to pick a particular set of numbers you and I are willing to talk.



> If they caught influenza-A instead of COVID-19 at that time, it would have been influenza-A that pushed them over; however, if the patient didn't have COPD, they likely would have survived both.  Cause of death, therefore, was COPD with COVID-19 a contributing factor.



The CDC numbers are based on the cause-of-death by the *doctor* who certified the death. Unless you're willing to disagree with the opinion of literally thousands of doctors who write the cause of death on the death certificate... I don't know what you're criticizing here.

In the case of #3, New York City's numbers, they actually *undercount* the cause-of-death numbers. Even if its the doctor's opinion that COVID19 killed someone, it doesn't count as a "confirmed death" unless a COVID19 test was taken and *proven* to be in the body at time of death.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 3, 2020)

This thread has begun to turn a nasty corner toward speculation about counting, which is diminishing the actual harm the virus is causing. I can only imagine political reasoning and bias is behind this slow seep of 'I feel the count is wrong' or, 'I have a friend who knows stuff' but whatever--take that to the lounge. I'm sorry to say but feelings and ideology have no place in a stastistical discussion. If people wish to pander to a new metric of science where they believe the media has made this up, they need to get their heads checked. When right leaning governments and left leaning governments have mandated the same approach, and when totalitarian regimes and liberal democracy have mandated the same approach -- you need to see, there is no illusion of consequence.

Be you a knee quacking lefty, or a hate-filled righty, keep the pace in this forum to science AND weighted evidence. Debunked, political crap can go to hell. For a fantastic balance of views, look to the UK. A right-wing elected government is keeping us on lockdown at massive expense. That isn't done for spite, or agenda.

And, I need to say, in the US, where the federal government has a lockdown approach but the POTUS tweets another narrative, you need to understand what is going on is political. Now, I never voted Boris, but he's damn straight on keeping people safe. Step back from the agendas and look at the global approach to this. It's not overhyped if Russia or China enforced draconian lockdowns. Your leaders know what's going on and it scares the shit out of them. But still, some will pander to their electoral base and start an opposite narrative to their official stance.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 3, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> 1. CDC's death count (Federal Government)
> 2. The New York State's death count
> 3. New York City's death count (In this case: two different counts. "probable" and "confirmed")
> 4. Media (and many other's) death count.
> ...


CDC is the only one that matters and they compile on monthly basis with pressure to speed it up.  This is the form that accompanies all deaths and what all the numbers are based from:


			https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf
		


Everything (#2-4) not from CDC is preliminary.



dragontamer5788 said:


> The CDC numbers are based on the cause-of-death by the *doctor* who certified the death.


They're pressured by administrators to use U07.1 because the facility then qualifies for more aide because bureaucrats see they are actively combating COVID-19 pandemic. From linked document:


> *Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?*
> The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID19 being the underlying cause more often than not.


Reference the "blue form" above.  It has "Immediate Cause" and three spaces for "Underlying Cause."  According to CDC instruction, COVID-19 code ("U07.1") should be used as an underlying cause "more often than not."  So...








						Minnesota doctor blasts 'ridiculous' CDC coronavirus death count guidelines
					

Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota family physician who is also a Republican state senator, told "The Ingraham Angle" Wednesday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) guidelines for doctors to certify whether a patient has died of coronavirus are "ridiculous" and could be...




					www.foxnews.com
				



...these elements combine to make COVID-19 appear in death certificates it doesn't belong hugely inflating COVID-19 mortality numbers.



I'm sure there's analysis going on comparing seasonal mortality figures to see if there is actually a bump in deaths because of COVID-19 or if these people are mostly dying of routine things being falsely attributed to COVID-19.  I expect a bump in hot spots like NYC, Italy, and Spain but I also expect the aggregate to be overall higher because of COVID-19 + influenza-A + influenza-B that went around 2019-2020 flu season (in itself quite peculiar that two strains of influenza went around).



the54thvoid said:


> This thread has begun to turn a nasty corner toward speculation about counting, which is diminishing the actual harm the virus is causing. I can only imagine political reasoning and bias is behind this slow seep of 'I feel the count is wrong' or, 'I have a friend who knows stuff' but whatever--take that to the lounge. I'm sorry to say but feelings and ideology have no place in a stastistical discussion. If people wish to pander to a new metric of science where they believe the media has made this up, they need to get their heads checked. When right leaning governments and left leaning governments have mandated the same approach, and when totalitarian regimes and liberal democracy have mandated the same approach -- you need to see, there is no illsuion of consequence.
> 
> Be you a knee quacking lefty, or a hate-filled righty, keep the pace in this forum to science AND weighted evidence. Debunked, political crap can go to hell. For a fantastic balance of views, look to the UK. A right-wing elected government is keeping us on lockdown at massive expense. That isn't done for spite, or agenda.
> 
> And, I need to say, in the US, where the federal government has a lockdown approach but the POTUS tweets another narrative, you need to understand what is going on is political. Now, I never voted Boris, but he's damn straight on keeping people safe. Step back from the agendas and look at the global approach to this. It's not overhyped if Russia or China enforced draconian lockdowns. Your leaders know what's going on and it scares the shit out of them. But still, some will pander to their electoral base and start an opposite narrative to their official stance.


That was then, this is now.  Countries everywhere are loosening restrictions because of proven data points like this one:


> ~80% of infections are not severe and some may be asymptomatic.


It will inevitably lead to more positive cases, more deaths, and more recoveries.  Same thing happens in bad influenza years.  That's just life though: sickness and death happen.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 3, 2020)

^^ So, 20% of cases are severe.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 3, 2020)

They don't expand on it.  They do cite a paper out of Washington state of 21 people hospitalized with COVID-19.  The mean age was 70. 86% had contributing factors (e.g. diabetes). 81% were admitted to ICU within 24 hours of presenting at the hospital.

The Swedish approach is likely the best (quarantine those 60+ and those with known contributing factors) while business as usual for the rest.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 3, 2020)

Sweden has been often cited but what is missed is that culturally, they carry out what is requested, so if they're told, stay at home, they do. Culture is another factor in this. Soon, we'll find shoe colour is too.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 3, 2020)

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics  (COVID-19) - Worldometer
					

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China




					www.worldometers.info
				




80+ year olds have a 14.8% chance of dying when exposed to COVID-19 (if they aren't lucky enough to be asymptomatic anyway).  That's a high enough number to scare most in that demographic to comply.

60+ year olds (3.6% increasing to 8% at 70+)  have a enough chance that it gives some pause in terms of decision makings in public.  For example, my parents and their friends (all in that category) are likely going to cancel a two-week long vacation/trip because of fear of having to use public restrooms and the like.

It's those below the demographics above that are eager to get back to work and feel the risk of getting sick is worth the reward of returning to normalcy.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 3, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics  (COVID-19) - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China
> ...


In the UK, the over 70's have been in quarantine since mid March whether they have underlying conditions or not along with all the other usual high risk conditions at any age, I say quarantine as that is what the government is calling it although over here the topical term currently is "shielded" BUT, those over 70 without underlying conditions are allowed to exercise once a day maintaining social distancing and if they really can't access food they can go to the Supermarket however Supermarkets have set slots at opening times where ONLY the over 70's can shop so they go into a sanitised supermarket only with others also quarantined in what is now in the UK a strictly controlled entry system with only one way aisles, you go past an item that you forgot, too late you don't go back for it, don't know what the real elderly make of it all, I know my 88 year old Mother in Law would not cope on her own in those situations, she cannot even remember where her bathroom is at times.

For those over 70 with underlying conditions, they can get free food deliveries, well that's the idea.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> They don't expand on it.  They do cite a paper out of Washington state of 21 people hospitalized with COVID-19.  The mean age was 70. 86% had contributing factors (e.g. diabetes). 81% were admitted to ICU within 24 hours of presenting at the hospital.
> 
> The Swedish approach is likely the best (quarantine those 60+ and those with known contributing factors) while business as usual for the rest.



Sweden is definitely an interesting one, because their numbers have been a roller coaster of ups and downs. Controlled, yes, but it is a really, really tight balance over there. And note; the degree of control depends 100% on catching new infections rapidly and a populace that, as mentioned, trusts the government in a big way and follows rules. And a healthcare system that did not get overwhelmed at the beginning.

What Sweden actually shows us is that only with extreme diligence it is possible to loosen up, and only if everyone agrees. Now, take that perspective to 90% of all other countries in the world. Good luck  Theoretically though I completely agree its the best approach to go about business as usual, with some caution applied. In practice? We are not responsible enough.

I see it over here too. We are pretty close to Sweden in the type of lockdown (NL). Lots of freedom. I can do nearly everything, but I still work from home. Our government never told us things got lifted, but you can just see and feel there is more activity, I was out for a drive a few days back and it was an old fashioned rush hour. People have no restraint.


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## ne6togadno (May 4, 2020)

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0009454


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 4, 2020)

Things have pretty much flatlined in my area. We haven't had any new confirmed infections in a few days.


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## Tatty_One (May 4, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Things have pretty much flatlined in my area. We haven't had any new confirmed infections in a few days.


That's really good, shows whatever you were doing has worked, the thing is in the UK, more than 50% of the people do not want a relaxation of the lockdown, they appear to be afraid, I can understand that but the key thing for me is that with enough testing, contact tracing, sensible social distancing and a dose of enthusiasm many can get back to work, the risk will be when movement restrictions start to be lifted so people, both for work or for social/family reasons can travel a little more freely, then those areas like yours (and mine) may well start having infections again, but if managed properly that should not be a problem.


----------



## HTC (May 4, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25524 confirmed infected --- 242 more
- 1712 recovered --- 23 more
- 1063 fatalities --- 20 more
- 254510 suspected cases --- 1621 more
- 426836 tests taken --- no change
- 2760 waiting for test results --- *931 less*
- 25081 under watch from authorities --- *243 less*
- 813 hospitalized --- *43 less*
- 143 in ICU --- *1 less*

1st day of "calamity state", as opposed to "emergency state": new businesses are now open for the 1st time in 46 days, such as hairdressing saloons, shoe stores, small library stores, etc.

It's now mandatory the use of masks in the public transportation system, with a maximum number of people allowed currently fixed @ 2/3 the total capacity of the vehicle and the vast majority of the passengers are cooperating: there's a hefty fine for those that don't follow these rules.


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## lexluthermiester (May 4, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> That's really good, shows whatever you were doing has worked


Our area hasn't done much beyond social distancing and shut-down of non-essential businesses. Everything else has continued on more or less unabated.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 4, 2020)

UK update as of today 4th May ...………………………...


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## dragontamer5788 (May 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I'm sure there's analysis going on comparing seasonal mortality figures to see if there is actually a bump in deaths because of COVID-19 or if these people are mostly dying of routine things being falsely attributed to COVID-19. I expect a bump in hot spots like NYC, Italy, and Spain but I also expect the aggregate to be overall higher because of COVID-19 + influenza-A + influenza-B that went around 2019-2020 flu season (in itself quite peculiar that two strains of influenza went around).



This already happened and your argument you're relying upon has already been proven wrong.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true
		


USA has an increase of deaths far in excess of COVID19 deaths, suggesting we're *under*counting deaths. You may not like the CDC guidelines, but they are *Republican* and owned by Trump. Any issues with CDC guidelines you can take it up with the man in charge. If you think Trump is encouraging bureaucrats to overcount deaths, I got a bridge to sell to you.

The USA total deaths have been grossly higher, above and beyond our COVID19 death counts. I understand that some media (ie: Fox News) keeps pushing fake news like hydroxychloroquine, conspiracy theories about the "Deep State", Bat Soup, and other such nonsense. But look at the numbers, look at the deaths, look at the results. With USA-seasonaly adjusted excess deaths finally being analyzed, there's no place for your argument to move the goalposts any longer.

----------

The bump in deaths is in March 2020. Influenza-A + Influenza-B are winter (November to Feburary) diseases. So you can't blame the flu on this one.



> That's just life though: sickness and death happen.



There are 15,000 more people dying *per week* on a seasonally-adjusted weekly basis. That's an increase of ~25%, from a 55,000 average to ~70,000 weekly death average. You can't sweep these numbers under the rug, the death increase in the USA is huge. And the COVID19 deaths continue to increase across this country (though it seems to be calming down in NYC finally).

Here's the truly scary part: this +15,000 deaths/week happened in a period of lockdowns, when a large portion of the country shut down, only performed essential travel. Airports were largely shut down, international travel is minimized, church was largely cancelled. This increase in deaths is basically the best case scenario, as we in the USA are clearly entering lockdown fatigue.

----------

The way COVID19 kills you is barely understood. Only this past week have people noticed that strokes seem to be related to COVID19 infections. We'll have to go over the numbers and search for excess stroke and heart-attack deaths, now that we know that COVID19 seems to cause blood clots. Initially, the scientists expected Pnumonia to be the main killer, but as we learn more about this disease, we will have to adjust our numbers with our new understanding. All excess stroke, heart attack, and pnumonia deaths are now suspected COVID19 indicators.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 4, 2020)

Look closely at that graph: it's misleading because it starts at 50,000, not 0.  It shows a jump by roughly 10,000 extra deaths.  4,000 of those were not COVID related (as in died because not getting treatment) and 6,000 died of COVID knowing they're overreporting COVID in death certificates due to CDC direction.  Put it together than there's only 11% more deaths than normal potentially attributable to COVID-19 and 9% attributable to quarantine.

They couldn't even chart Washington State because there were only 100 excess deaths and 310 deaths were reported as COVID related which strongly implies 2 out of 3 of those that died were likely to die anyway.

My assertion that the quarantine is as harmful as the virus rings true.  In NYC, it looks like quarantine resulted in more deaths than COVID, for example.

This data does strongly suggest COVID-19 has higher mortality than influenza but it also suggests quarantine is causing a lot of harm itself.  A reasonable balance must be struck.


Is 11% warranted for shutting down entire economies?  I'd argue not.



dragontamer5788 said:


> The bump in deaths is in March 2020. Influenza-A + Influenza-B are winter (November to Feburary) diseases. So you can't blame the flu on this one.


Influenza-B hit in October-November.  Influenza-A picked up in January through at least March.








						Flu Now Widespread in 45 States, What to Know
					

As expected, flu activity picked up over the holidays. There have now been at least 6.4 million flu illnesses, 55,000 hospitalizations, and 2,900 flu-related deaths.




					www.healthline.com
				



The fact there isn't a bump in Washington Post's chart for that double whammy is surprising.



Washington Post says their source is "federal data" but CDC only shows the latest mortality data for 2017.  The numbers they are working with fall into that "preliminary" category I was talking about before.



dragontamer5788 said:


> All excess stroke, heart attack, and pnumonia deaths are now suspected COVID19 indicators.


Heart attack is #1
Stroke is #5
Pneumonia is #8
Just because a person dies of these things doesn't mean it had anything to do with COVID-19.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 4, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Heart attack is #1
> Stroke is #5
> Pneumonia is #8
> Just because a person dies of these things doesn't mean it had anything to do with COVID-19.



*EXCESS* heart attacks, Stroke, and Pneumonia are COVID19 indicators. As COVID19 has been shown to cause those kinds of deaths. We compare the heart attacks, strokes, and pneumonia deaths from this year, compared to years prior. We see that they're up, way higher than the preliminary COVID19 death numbers. Anyone seeing these charts recognizes that COVID19 deaths, as currently reported, is grossly *under*reporting the deaths due to the disease.

Because COVID19 is a new, and poorly understood, disease, morticians may see a heart attack and report the death as... well...  a heart attack, instead of a proper COVID19 death. (which is known to cause heart attacks). This becomes a source of underreporting. Ditto for strokes and pneumonia.



> Washington Post says their source is "federal data" but CDC only shows the latest mortality data for 2017.  The numbers they are working with fall into that "preliminary" category I was talking about before.



Yes. Because CDC official data takes years to get out the door. We need preliminary results, because this thing is killing Americans *today*. We can't wait years for the official numbers to trickle in before doing something about this disease. Accepting a degree of inaccuracy, rather than sitting still with our heads in the sand, is the only reasonable way to move forward.

Or what, do you really want to keep this lockdown until the CDC official data is released next year or two? That's just insane. We should use the preliminary results (even if inaccurate) to reopen the country earlier.

We know that preliminary death counts undercount, we know that excess deaths are up. Your argument that we're somehow overcounting deaths doesn't hold up to any level of scrutiny, and will simply be another moving goalpost forgotten by some members of the public. "Just the Flu", "Just 1 or 2 cases", "Hydroxychloroquine", and now "Overcounting deaths". How many goalposts have to move in just a few weeks before we stop listening?



> This data does strongly suggest COVID-19 has higher mortality than influenza but it also suggests quarantine is causing a lot of harm itself.



What is your methodology for getting "deaths from quarantine" ??

Because the methodology for getting "deaths from COVID19" is to get physicians to individually certify the deaths of every American. (And no, CDC does *NOT* change the death certificates. Each death certificate is the opinion of the mortician. I don't even know how the bureaucrats could change the numbers in the way you imply). I'm going to bet that your methodology of "deaths from quarantine" is poor compared to the COVID19 numbers.


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 4, 2020)

That must be why they keep issuing guidance different than Trump.

@Tatty_One or @the54thvoid I personally don’t want this moved to the lounge because some people like this do not know how to conversate neutrally based on stats, which is what this thread is.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 4, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> That must be why they keep issuing guidance different than Trump











						Robert R. Redfield - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Robert R. Redfield is Trump's pick (EDIT: Well, Alex Azar's pick, but Alex Azar is Trump's pick). Facts be facts man. If Trump doesn't like Mr. Redfield's leadership of the CDC, he could pick someone else to lead.

Trump is pretty unique as a modern president. He picks someone. And when they don't do what he likes, he publicly shames them, trying to get those picks to do his bidding more. Lets not be ignorant to the clear cut political games being played here.

At the end of the day, the buck stops with the President. Trump's pick, Trump's administration, Trump's numbers. The numbers being reported by the CDC are under Mr. Redfield's leadership and policies.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 5, 2020)

That will be enough of the politically charged, off topic comments. Take it to the other COVID19 thread please.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 5, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Because COVID19 is a new, and poorly understood, disease, morticians may see a heart attack and report the death as... well...  a heart attack, instead of a proper COVID19 death. (which is known to cause heart attacks). This becomes a source of underreporting. Ditto for strokes and pneumonia.


We already went over that: "cardiac arrest" should be the "immediate cause" on the death certificate and if there's any reason to believe COVID-19 was involved, that goes on one of the "underlying cause" lines as the CDC recommended in their notice.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Or what, do you really want to keep this lockdown until the CDC official data is released next year or two?


I expect governors and mayors to do what they think is best for their constituents based on what they're hearing from practicing physicians and hospital administrators.  If local hospitals are underutilized, open things up.  If they start getting concerned about incoming case load, close the hot spots down.



dragontamer5788 said:


> We know that preliminary death counts undercount, we know that excess deaths are up. Your argument that we're somehow overcounting deaths doesn't hold up to any level of scrutiny, and will simply be another moving goalpost forgotten by some members of the public. "Just the Flu", "Just 1 or 2 cases", "Hydroxychloroquine", and now "Overcounting deaths". How many goalposts have to move in just a few weeks before we stop listening?


We don't know how many deaths are a direct result of quarantine/fear of going to hospital which also pile into "excess deaths."  That's why you need an organization like CDC to macro-analyze the data.  There's so many relatively minor diseases that do kill if they go untreated (e.g. appendicitis).



dragontamer5788 said:


> What is your methodology for getting "deaths from quarantine" ??


Excess deaths that make no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.


Consider this: virtually all severe cases of any disease end up at hospitals due to the individual's need for help.  Because of quarantine, many elect not to until the symptoms are so severe, they die before they can even get treatment.  That includes COVID-19 cases and everything else.  COVID-19 isn't the primary cause of death, it's a failure to seek help because of the quarantine.  Further, confirmed cases of COVID-19 deaths for USA are something like 5-6% yet excessive death reporting places them at roughly 11%.  It is very possible, if not likely, that 5% of death certificates have COVID-19 on them because they failed to seek treatment, not because of the COVID-19 directly.  Washington state's numbers suggest this to be true: they were early to lockdown, there hasn't been many reported COVID-19 deaths, but they still have excessive deaths.

Also consider this: influenza that develops pneumonia, without professional help, often proves fatal.  A condition that wouldn't usually result in a fatality under normal circumstances becomes fatal during quarantine contributing to excessive deaths.

It's going to take a long time to sort out this mess.  Scientists are still analyzing SARS-CoV and that was 17 years ago.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 5, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> It's going to take a long time to sort out this mess.


This is very true. This is the first time medical science has been somewhat ready to take on a outbreak of this nature. We are massively more advanced than we were during the "Spanish Flu" outbreak. That killed in the 10's of millions. COVID19 has not broken 300k(as of today). Even AIDS(HIV) in the 80's/90's killed more. As a civilization, even fragmented as nations are, we are far more prepared today than even just a half a lifetime ago. There were many who predicted deaths in the millions, yet that hasn't happened. What *has* happened is a lot of science and data that we will learn from and understand for decades to come.


----------



## bogmali (May 5, 2020)

If you cannot present your argument without having to include your political bias, then don't post it-plain and simple. Thread has been cleansed from all the political nonsense.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 5, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I expect governors and mayors to do what they think is best for their constituents based on what they're hearing from practicing physicians and hospital administrators.  If local hospitals are underutilized, open things up.  If they start getting concerned about incoming case load, close the hot spots down.



I appreciate your patience with me. I still very strongly disagree with your post. But I'll instead point out what I agree with as a closer.

I'll leave this discussion by pointing out that what you propose here is solid sense. Keeping things data-oriented and focused on facts is mostly all I ask for. Nonetheless, an entire generation of people I'm in contact with are conspiracy minded fools who are pissing me off to no end, but I'll try to keep that anger aimed elsewhere instead of directed at your posts from here on out.

As such, I've taken the quote above to mostly say, yes, I agree with this. And what you say here is reasonable. Stick to the data, believe in our doctors and physicians. We have a large amount of data available now thanks to increased testing in the USA, and I do think we can start focusing on geographic hot-spots now.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 5, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> We don't know how many deaths are a direct result of quarantine/fear of going to hospital which also pile into "excess deaths."



This is true but it is also the exact reason for invoking the quarantine and isolation measures -- to keep hospital capacity at non-critical levels. It's why many countries rushed to build 'super' hopsitals and rushed to get ventilators. The problem is, now people are seeing the numbers decelerate, they're forgetting the exact reason *why* the numbers are slowing and the hospitals are still coping (though ask a nurse in a hotpot and they'd disagree). This decline in virus effect has taken weeks of lockdown.

What we (royal 'we') must be mindful of is a generalised discussion on lockdown, as though lifting it is going to work because rates are dropping. Some people see comments on those grounds as universal, then take to the streets to protest. The issue is heavily politicised and that helps nobody, and because of how politics works, its unavoidable. However, common sense must be applied when discussing the current situation, and that includes a retrospect on what has brought us to the state we're in now (lowering rises in cases/deaths).



lexluthermiester said:


> There were many who predicted deaths in the millions, yet that hasn't happened.



Yes, and that's why the world went into lockdown - to prevent that number. This is my point above. The predicted millions was without a lockdown... Science has assisted in our treatment but in the absence of a vaccine, we've had to rely on physical measures to reduce transmission. We all need to go back and look at the pre-lockdown graphs for the speed of the spread. It was only with quarantine measures that it was slowed down. You can read the global news and find hotspots now where communities had no lockdown in place - cases are still surging.









						Coronavirus: Disease meets deforestation at heart of Brazil's Amazon
					

Coronavirus has overwhelmed Manaus, the Amazon's biggest city, and the worst is yet to come.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Vayra86 (May 5, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Look closely at that graph: it's misleading because it starts at 50,000, not 0.  It shows a jump by roughly 10,000 extra deaths.  4,000 of those were not COVID related (as in died because not getting treatment) and 6,000 died of COVID knowing they're overreporting COVID in death certificates due to CDC direction.  Put it together than there's only 11% more deaths than normal potentially attributable to COVID-19 and 9% attributable to quarantine.
> 
> They couldn't even chart Washington State because there were only 100 excess deaths and 310 deaths were reported as COVID related which strongly implies 2 out of 3 of those that died were likely to die anyway.
> 
> ...



The thing is. We have not had a serious influenza outbreak this winter or spring season. The 2018 peak was already exceptional and the numbers in NL attribute at least half of the additional deaths to Covid19. Yes, it is good to teconsider lockdowns on all aspects of them, and that time is now coming. Note: the US is behind the EU curve by a few weeks. We are generally, carefully considering loosening up and already seeing elevated infection numbers again.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 5, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> The problem is, now people are seeing the numbers decelerate, they're forgetting the exact reason *why* the numbers are slowing and the hospitals are still coping (though ask a nurse in a hotpot and they'd disagree).


Their data ends at April 4 before the lockdown had any affect.  We need another month of data to make that claim.  Even then, in places like NYC, it didn't slow down much.



the54thvoid said:


> Some people see comments on those grounds as universal, then take to the streets to protest.


I think the protests are mostly driven by people's inability to sustain themselves financially.  Most people don't have much more than a month's worth of savings which has been exhausted.



the54thvoid said:


> The issue is heavily politicised and that helps nobody, and because of how politics works, its unavoidable. However, common sense must be applied when discussing the current situation, and that includes a retrospect on what has brought us to the state we're in now (lowering rises in cases/deaths).


Consider what I said above (financially and excess deaths) when reading this:








						Three family members charged in shooting death of security guard who told a customer to put on a face mask | CNN
					

Three family members have been charged in the killing of a security guard who told a customer at a Michigan Family Dollar store to wear a state-mandated face mask, officials said on Monday.




					edition.cnn.com
				



No access to masks -> need food -> go to store to get food -> get denied -> get violent because of desperation -> people die that likely wouldn't have without quarantine -> excess deaths climb.



the54thvoid said:


> You can read the global news and find hotspots now where communities had no lockdown in place - cases are still surging.


It's surging around here again because of meat packers:








						The Human Cost of Cheap Meat Gets Higher in the Pandemic
					

Working in a processing plant has always been grueling and dangerous. With Covid-19, it’s even scarier.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## the54thvoid (May 5, 2020)

The lockdown reduced the capacity for the virus to spread. It lowered the R number. That much is clear. Deaths lag behind all lockdown beginnings, by 2-4 weeks, situation dependent. Curves didn't flatten without interventions.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 5, 2020)

That's why we need that data.  COVID cases may have flattened but excessive deaths may not have because of the impact of quarantine.  It's too soon to tell.  Hopefully there will be another analysis with fresh data in 2-3 weeks.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 5, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> That's why we need that data.  COVID cases may have flattened but excessive deaths may not have because of the impact of quarantine.  It's too soon to tell.  Hopefully there will be another analysis with fresh data in 2-3 weeks.



I agree on that. However, we must bear in mind that figure is, in isolation, meaningless. What we will never know and what it should be weighted against, is how many were saved (from overburdened health systems) because we did enact a quarantine.

We're ignoring the position:

If we don't enact a quarantine, 'X' people will die.

and appear to be focussing on:

We've enacted a quarantine, 'Y' people will die.

Given the certainty no quarantine would swamp the capacity to deal with the virus in medical arenas, the 'X' value is more than likely far higher than the 'Y' value.

Of course, we'll never know what 'X' is.


----------



## HTC (May 5, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 25702 confirmed infected --- 178 more
- 1743 recovered --- 31 more
- 1074 fatalities --- 11 more
- 258488 suspected cases --- 3978 more
- 426836 tests taken --- hasn't been updated, for the last 3 days
- 2671 waiting for test results --- *89 less*
- 25066 under watch from authorities --- *15 less*
- 818 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 134 in ICU --- *9 less*


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 5, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I agree on that. However, we must bear in mind that figure is, in isolation, meaningless. What we will never know and what it should be weighted against, is how many were saved (from overburdened health systems) because we did enact a quarantine.
> 
> We're ignoring the position:
> 
> ...


It's not that simple.  For example, quarantine *stopped* elective procedures like cancer screenings.  Something that would have been caught months ago potentially now won't.  We're going to see an uptick in deaths across the board simply because preventative medicine is not being practiced.

Quarantine already swamped some healthcare facilities because COVID-19 is highly infectious.  These are also the places with high population density where quarantine doesn't work well.  It would not surprise me at all if >60% of NYC residents had or have had COVID-19, for example.  In other words, what COVID-19 has done there is the worst possible scenario and it's already passing.  Any future outbreaks there are going to be relatively minor by comparison and only a few facilities in NYC were overwhelmed largely because elective procedures ended so there was a lot of unused capacity.

Meh, it's all guesstimates at this point.  We're going to find out as things open up.  Just keep in mind that more cases isn't necessarily a bad thing.  More deaths is but only when those deaths exceed seasonal normals.  We can end the COVID-19 pandemic this year by having 70%+ of the global population having had it.  We're not going to know how detrimental quarantine was to public health until we try easing it.


I know for a fact that my local hospital lost $700,000 USD last month because people aren't coming in.  In that _same period_ they saw a total of three COVID-19 cases and none of these required hospitalization AFAIK.  They're effectively bleeding money just because the government said so, not for any practical reason.


----------



## ozkisses (May 5, 2020)

The final stats that I would like to see is on how many who are experts on everything COVID19 actually were.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 5, 2020)

Stats last Tuesday (deaths)

USA - 56803   
Italy - 26997
Spain - 23521 
France - 23293 
UK - 21092


This is one week later.

USA - 70129 -- 23% up ---> was 40%, so good drop.
Italy - 29079 -- 8% up ---> was 14%
UK - 28734* -- 36% up ---> was 31%
Spain -  25613 -- 9% up ---> was 13%
France - 25201 -- 8% up ---> was 18%


* UK figure now includes care homes deaths (not included last week).

Looking at stats it says the US has 950,000 active cases . I'm pleased to announce in the spirit of our old alliance, the UK comes second, IN THE WORLD, at 161,000 - which is crazy .

The UK is doing really poorly and it must be said, very early on, we were praised by some for doing well. We aint.


----------



## ozkisses (May 5, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> The UK is doing really poorly and it must be said, very early on, we were praised by some for doing well. We aint.



I read a poll online which said a lot of people in the UK are going to continue with staying at home after the restrictions get lifted for a bit longer. The news for us says that the majority are doing a great job of doing what is deemed right at this time. Imagine the numbers of deaths if you hadn't chosen to isolate at home.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 5, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Their data ends at April 4 before the lockdown had any affect.  We need another month of data to make that claim.  Even then, in places like NYC, it didn't slow down much.
> 
> 
> I think the protests are mostly driven by people's inability to sustain themselves financially.  Most people don't have much more than a month's worth of savings which has been exhausted.
> ...


I thought you're unemployed people were getting some benefits as well as the cheque from the government?


----------



## Vayra86 (May 5, 2020)

ozkisses said:


> I read a poll online which said a lot of people in the UK are going to continue with staying at home after the restrictions get lifted for a bit longer. The news for us says that the majority are doing a great job of doing what is deemed right at this time. Imagine the numbers of deaths if you hadn't chosen to isolate at home.



A poll with data from that moment in time...if there is one thing I have learned it is that the sentiment of the public opinion changes almost daily. If my country's lockdown is any guide, revisit that idea two weeks from now, or when the curve starts flattening. Im sure the outcome will be radically different.

Its a very human thing. If the threat is not direct or acute, it is easy to ignore it.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 5, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I thought you're unemployed people were getting some benefits as well as the cheque from the government?


They are but not everyone qualifies and they've been really slow to actually disperse it.  Basically you only qualify for unemployment insurance if your employer was paying for unemployment insurance on your behalf.

Even then, the unemployment rate is like 75% of normal wage.  People living paycheck to paycheck, that 25% difference puts them in the red.


It's a culture thing too.  The vast majority of Americans loath idleness.


----------



## EarthDog (May 5, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> They are but not everyone qualifies and they've been really slow to actually disperse it.  Basically you only qualify for unemployment insurance if your employer was paying for unemployment insurance on your behalf.
> 
> Even then, the unemployment rate is like 75% of normal wage.  People living paycheck to paycheck, that 25% difference puts them in the red.
> 
> ...


Assuming I understand this right......

Don't forget about the extra $600 /week through the end of July.... For many, especially in the lower income brackets, they can actually take home more than what they make normally (do I go back to work or make more doing nothing?????)....in Ohio, this nearly doubles the maximum amount you can take home.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 5, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> It's a culture thing too.  The vast majority of Americans loath idleness.



Yeah, that's not an American thing, by the way. You find most cultures despise sloth.



And just found an excellent piece from the BBC about death rates and the reporting of it. It's pretty robust and as good as it gets.

A snippet:



> *What's wrong with the daily figures?*
> 
> The definition changes across countries - some countries only include hospital deaths, some include care homes too. Even though Italy and the UK both count deaths among people who have tested positive for coronavirus, they have different testing regimes, meaning they catch different deaths. When every country counts things differently, statisticians turn to a different measure - with a simpler definition.
> 
> ...











						Coronavirus: Can you compare the UK with Italy?
					

The UK has passed Italy's death toll but it's hard to make direct comparisons.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 5, 2020)

Here we go, May 5th for Louisiana:

29,996 cases (28,711 on May 1st)
2,042 deaths (1,802on May 1st)
1,512 hospitalized 1,607 on May 1st)
194 on ventilators (230 on May 1st)
188,231  tests have been conducted  (168,251 on May 1st)  -in a population of 4.6 million

20,316 Presumed recovered (17,303 on May 1st) confirmed this stat is only being updated weekly.

Of note is that in New Orleans, only 18 new cases were recorded in the last 24 hours.

There are a ton of good charts and graphs here:








						Louisiana COVID numbers: Data on cases, deaths, hospitalizations, vaccines
					

Editor's Note: Due to changes in the Louisiana Department of Health's data page, there might be a delay in data updating on this page.




					www.nola.com


----------



## Tatty_One (May 5, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Here we go, May 5th for Louisiana:
> 
> 29,996 cases (28,711 on May 1st)
> 2,042 deaths (1,802on May 1st)
> ...


Lower hospitalisations and those on ventilators, lets hope that is a progressive downward trend


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 6, 2020)

I was expecting this to happen later. But New York is already proving my case correct.









						New York reports over 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at nursing homes and adult care facilities
					

At least 4,813 people have died from COVID-19 in the state's nursing homes since March 1, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo's administration.




					www.cbsnews.com
				




New York just increased its death count by 1700, because of all the COVID19 nursing home deaths that were previously uncounted. We are *UNDER*counting deaths by an order of magnitude, and these things only become obvious after weeks, or months, of analysis.

-------

Mortality rates are almost always adjusted upwards. We have a habit of undercounting deaths in this country initially.



> Audrey Waters, a spokeswoman for Isabella Geriatric Center, said in an email last week, "Isabella, like all other nursing homes in New York City, initially had limited access to widespread and consistent in-house testing to quickly diagnose our residents and staff. This hampered our ability to identify those who were infected and asymptomatic, despite our efforts to swiftly separate anyone who presented symptoms."



This country did not have enough tests to prove COVID19 in all the people who probably died of it. Sad part is, this country is still facing a shortage of tests, making it difficult to "prove" COVID19 in all of the suspected COVID19 deaths. Expect the numbers to be continuously adjusted upwards as we get access to more tests and can prove the obvious.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 6, 2020)

And again, I point to CDC's recommendations:


			https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf
		



> However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID19 being the underlying cause more often than not.





> COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused *or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death*.


They're telling doctors to over-report it.








						Minnesota doctor blasts 'ridiculous' CDC coronavirus death count guidelines
					

Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota family physician who is also a Republican state senator, told "The Ingraham Angle" Wednesday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) guidelines for doctors to certify whether a patient has died of coronavirus are "ridiculous" and could be...




					www.foxnews.com
				





> Jensen then told Ingraham that under the CDC guidelines, a patient who died after being hit by a bus and tested positive for coronavirus would be listed as having presumed to have died from the virus regardless of whatever damage was caused by the bus.


What that 1700 represents is going back through all of the death certificates and looking for any symptoms that align with SARS-CoV-2 and _changing them_ to COVID-19 even if, for example, it was just the flu (very similar symptoms).  But there's another fly in the ointment there:


> "I’ve never been encouraged to [notate 'influenza']," he said. "I would probably write 'respiratory arrest' to be the top line, and the underlying cause of this disease would be pneumonia ... I might well put emphysema or congestive heart failure, but *I would never put influenza down as the underlying cause of death* and yet that’s what we are being asked to do here."


Which also explains the underreporting of flu deaths which is discussed in this opinion post:








						Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges
					

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates




					blogs.scientificamerican.com
				




TL;DR:


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 6, 2020)

__





						Webinar April 16, 2020 - Clinical Management of Critically Ill Adults with COVID-19
					

CDC Clinician Outreach and Communication Activity (COCA). Providing clinicians the most current and reliable information on emerging public health threats, such as pandemics, natural disasters, and bioterrorism.




					emergency.cdc.gov


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 6, 2020)

Exactly, opinion, not "precision and specificity" which has been the standard...until now.


Example... some one tests positive for COVID-19 and "respiratory arrest" is the cause of death which was caused by bilateral pneumonia.  Simply writing down COVID-19 doesn't provide "precision and specificity" while "respiratory arrest" and "pneumonia" does.  This person died because O2 saturation fell below lethal levels.  In rare cases, COVID-19 can kill via cardiac arrest...








						Physicians, scientists and physician-scientists connect dots between heart disease, potential for worse COVID-19 outcomes - Mayo Clinic News Network
					

ROCHESTER, Minn. ― People with certain heart diseases may be more susceptible to worse outcomes with COVID-19, but the reason why has remained unknown. New research from Mayo Clinic indicates that in patients with one specific type of heart disease ― obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM)...




					newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org
				



...simply writing COVID-19 doesn't tell statisticians by which method it killed.

Further complicating things, just writing "COVID-19" as an underlying cause because they tested positive is also potentially erroneous, for example, if they were hit by a bus (as the Minnesota doctor gave as an example).  The sudden acceleration from the impact leading to internal organ damage and hemorrhaging is what caused the death.  COVID-19 had nothing to do with it.

It makes more sense to me to stick to "precision and specificity" then associate symptoms on the death certificates with "probable COVID-19" in analysis.  COVID-19 should only appear on the death certificates if it was certain (e.g. that extraordinary bilateral pneumonia presents and the patient dies from respiratory arrest).


----------



## HTC (May 6, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 26182 confirmed infected --- 480 more
- 2076 recovered --- 333 more
- 1089 fatalities --- 15 more
- 262041 suspected cases --- 3553 more
- 470234 tests taken --- 43398 more --- hadn't been updated in 3 days, hence the abnormal increase
- 2492 waiting for test results --- *179 less*
- 24579 under watch from authorities --- *487 less*
- 838 hospitalized --- 20 more
- 136 in ICU --- 2 more

Both hospitalized and ICU numbers increased for the 1st time since April 16th: this worries me because not enough time has elapsed since the lowering of lockdown's restrictions for it's effects to show up on our daily numbers and yet we're already experiencing increases, albeit small, in theses numbers.


----------



## xman2007 (May 6, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> View attachment 153993 View attachment 153994
> 
> ...


Wow Portugal may yet exceed the UK in total number of fatalities going by those numbers, praying you and all your family and friends stay safe buddy

Edit ignore that, I was looking at the wrong stats


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 6, 2020)

Updated stats of Louisiana's Race, Sex and Underlying conditions stats.  Hypertension still reigns supreme for the condition most held by those with COVID-19 designated deaths.








EarthDog said:


> Assuming I understand this right......
> 
> Don't forget about the extra $600 /week through the end of July.... For many, especially in the lower income brackets, they can actually take home more than what they make normally (do I go back to work or make more doing nothing?????)....in Ohio, this nearly doubles the maximum amount you can take home.


In Louisiana it will help, but when you add it to what was the single lowest maximum unemployment payments in the country, it's still a bit short.

EDIT: Wait, I must correct myself.  Our $247 weekly maximum is beaten by our neighbor, Mississippi at $235.  Mississippi and Louisiana are always competing among the worst stats for everything to see who can be the worst.  I jest, but it sure seems that way.


----------



## EarthDog (May 6, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> In Louisiana it will help, but when you add it to what was the single lowest maximum unemployment payments in the country, it's still a bit short.


Yep. It varies by state. Ohio is $480 /week (max) normally. That's less than 25K. The $600 on top of that puts it over 50K /year.

You guys are ~$250 /week... the $600 on top of that puts it just under 45K... plenty for most to live (that $250 though...yikes).


----------



## Tatty_One (May 6, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I was expecting this to happen later. But New York is already proving my case correct.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's what the UK was doing up until 10 days ago, only counting deaths in hospital settings, to be fair it's what most countries are doing but it is a false picture, 10 days ago when the UK included deaths in the home, residential care settings etc our numbers went immediately up by almost 20% which is why I have my doubts that at the end of all of this, whenever that may be we won't have the highest fatality rate in Europe.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 6, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> That's what the UK was doing up until 10 days ago, only counting deaths in hospital settings, to be fair it's what most countries are doing but it is a false picture, 10 days ago when the UK included deaths in the home, residential care settings etc our numbers went immediately up by almost 20% which is why I have my doubts that at the end of all of this, whenever that may be we won't have the highest fatality rate in Europe.



I think only France was counting care home deaths.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 6, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> That's what the UK was doing up until 10 days ago, only counting deaths in hospital settings, to be fair it's what most countries are doing but it is a false picture, 10 days ago when the UK included deaths in the home, residential care settings etc our numbers went immediately up by almost 20% which is why I have my doubts that at the end of all of this, whenever that may be we won't have the highest fatality rate in Europe.



Agreed. I don't "believe" in death counts anymore. It is clear that everyone (China, Korea, UK, Italy, France, USA) is undercounting, and we're all under-counting to differing degrees. We cannot effectively compare our countries against each other under these conditions.

Which to be fair: there's no *point* to compare our countries against each other. Its more important to get a consistent death count such that we can tell if the disease is getting better or worse. The direction of the stats is far more important than getting a precise number right now.



FordGT90Concept said:


> Example... some one tests positive for COVID-19 and "respiratory arrest" is the cause of death which was caused by bilateral pneumonia. Simply writing down COVID-19 doesn't provide "precision and specificity" while "respiratory arrest" and "pneumonia" does. This person died because O2 saturation fell below lethal levels. In rare cases, COVID-19 can kill via cardiac arrest...



Please read the slides. https://emergency.cdc.gov/coca/ppt/2020/Final_COCA_Call_Slides_04_16_2020.pdf

They actually include this example directly in the presentation.





What's going on right now, is that a lot of deaths will have "Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome" or "Pneumonia" as a cause of death, but *without* COVID19 because the doctor isn't able to prove it (because test kits still are being rationed in this country).


----------



## Tatty_One (May 6, 2020)

UK are not under counting now, as I said, we were until 10 days ago, media pressure along with a significant dose of Care sector workers speaking out finally led to full transparency, I can't and won't speak for any other country but I know why they originally only used deaths in hospitals as the figure and that was simply because at that point the only people consistently tested were when they got admitted to hospital as a serious case and at that time for right or wrong (probably for wrong) they were the only absolute certainties.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 6, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> UK are not under counting now, as I said, we were until 10 days ago, media pressure along with a significant dose of Care sector workers speaking out finally led to full transparency, I can't and won't speak for any other country but I know why they originally only used deaths in hospitals as the figure and that was simply because at that point the only people consistently tested were when they got admitted to hospital as a serious case and at that time for right or wrong (probably for wrong) they were the only absolute certainties.



I can't speak for the UK, but it wasn't until recently that US doctors recognized that COVID19 may cause blood-clots and strokes. And only recently we've learned about kidney / liver damage as a result.

This disease is a learning process. As doctors learn what the disease can do, they'll get better and better at spotting it. We're necessarily undercounting deaths due to the uncertainty and poor understanding of the disease. Now that blood-clots / strokes are seen as a sign of COVID19, US doctors are now better informed with regards to filling out the death certificates... but that means that earlier death certificates probably missed some deaths ("Stroke" would be the listed cause of death, but the doctors may have missed that the stroke was caused by COVID19).

EDIT: Fortunately, the statisticians of our respective health agencies will figure this out over the next year as they analyze the death certificates and numbers. But it will take months before the numbers are updated and we learn the truth.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 6, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Agreed. I don't "believe" in death counts anymore. It is clear that everyone (China, Korea, UK, Italy, France, USA) is undercounting, and we're all under-counting to differing degrees. We cannot effectively compare our countries against each other under these conditions.
> 
> Which to be fair: there's no *point* to compare our countries against each other. Its more important to get a consistent death count such that we can tell if the disease is getting better or worse. The direction of the stats is far more important than getting a precise number right now.
> 
> ...



This is actually very relevant to the ongoing discussion. It's like AIDS. You don't die of AIDS - you die of something that AIDS brings about (ironically, often pneumonia). Similarly, nobody dies of 'Covid-19' - you die of the complication of an illness, made terminal by the virus.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 6, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> What's going on right now, is that a lot of deaths will have "Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome" or "Pneumonia" as a cause of death, but *without* COVID19 because the doctor isn't able to prove it (because test kits still are being rationed in this country).


CDC is instructing doctors and morticians to write down COVID-19 even if they weren't tested positive for COVID-19.  Here's an example: an 90 year old patient dies of ARDS but was not tested for any underlying diseases because they're 90 years old.  The ARDS could have been caused by influenza but, due to the CDC direction, the mortician/doctor put down COVID-19 resulting in overcounting COVID-19 deaths.

CDC's recommendation to put COVID-19 as an underlying cause came out on March 24.  We have over a month, potentially, of inflated numbers.

This is the point/problem: there's reasons for undercounting and reasons for overcounting: the result is a very wide margin of error.  And these variables are different from country to country so comparing one country's deaths to another country's deaths isn't going to tell you much because the variability in how they're getting their numbers isn't apples to apples.




Tatty_One said:


> UK are not under counting now, as I said, we were until 10 days ago, media pressure along with a significant dose of Care sector workers speaking out finally led to full transparency, I can't and won't speak for any other country but I know why they originally only used deaths in hospitals as the figure and that was simply because at that point the only people consistently tested were when they got admitted to hospital as a serious case and at that time for right or wrong (probably for wrong) they were the only absolute certainties.


Exactly and I'd argue media pressure to change uniform reporting is going to make it really complicated for the analysts to figure out how many COVID-19 killed.  A stable baselines is the best source for statistical analysis; a moving target is the worst.



dragontamer5788 said:


> I can't speak for the UK, but it wasn't until recently that US doctors recognized that COVID19 may cause blood-clots and strokes. And only recently we've learned about kidney / liver damage as a result.


April 6 at the latest:








						Colorado doctors test anti-blood clot treatment on COVID-19 patients, optimistic about results so far
					

BOSTON (KDVR) — A Colorado family of doctors and its research counterparts – who are affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medica…




					kdvr.com
				




Reporting on it exploded on April 22 when Reuters published an article on it:








						Alarmed as COVID patients' blood thickened, New York doctors try new treatments
					

As the novel coronavirus spread through New York City in late March, doctors at Mount Sinai Hospital noticed something strange happening to patients' blood.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Tatty_One (May 6, 2020)

Test every death unless it's blatently clear it was not from the virus maybe?


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 6, 2020)

Not enough tests to go around.  I'd argue they shouldn't change their reporting from what it was before.  Just as they wouldn't usually write influenza down, they shouldn't write COVID-19 down.

Death counts aren't even very relevant right now; what is critical is the burden load at hospitals.  Leave fatality rates to statisticians when the dust settles which has always been the case.  Macroanalysis of the data is how we've always generated mortality data.  The only thing these constant numbers flying around the news know for sure is that someone died.

Death counts are driving panic which leads to excessive government force in lockdown when the only numbers that matter is how many ICUs are available and how many are in use.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 6, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Not enough tests to go around.  I'd argue they shouldn't change their reporting from what it was before.  Just as they wouldn't usually write influenza down, they shouldn't write COVID-19 down.
> 
> Death counts aren't even very relevant right now; what is critical is the burden load at hospitals.  Leave fatality rates to statisticians when the dust settles which has always been the case.  Macroanalysis of the data is how we've always generated mortality data.  The only thing these constant numbers flying around the news know for sure is that someone died.
> 
> Death counts are driving panic which leads to excessive government force in lockdown when the only numbers that matter is how many ICUs are available and how many are in use.



Gotta say that this approach, completely isolated from the actual, I think, panic response when things truly took a turn for the worse in the US, is a good one.

But real panic was averted by publishing data as well. I've said it before, half this crisis is not a virus but the effects it has on society, on people. A number is something we can hold onto, to get an idea of things. It would not have worked out well if everyone handled this the way you describe. How will you explain thousands of mystery deaths and ill? Maybe now is the time to reconsider that, indeed.

The bigger driver for panic right now is politically tainted rhetoric. The stats on their own didn't cause a riot anywhere.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 6, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Not enough tests to go around. I'd argue they shouldn't change their reporting from what it was before. Just as they wouldn't usually write influenza down, they shouldn't write COVID-19 down.



They usually write influenza down. The flu is one of the biggest killers in the USA. In fact, Influenza is ICD-code J09.X2. (Actually, there are a bunch of different Flu viruses and I'm pretty sure they get different ICD codes).

The difference is that we have test kits for the Flu (as well as a vaccine). There aren't enough COVID19 test kits in the USA to test all the living symptomatic people... let alone all the dead people.



FordGT90Concept said:


> CDC is instructing doctors and morticians to write down COVID-19 even if they weren't tested positive for COVID-19. Here's an example: an 90 year old patient dies of ARDS but was not tested for any underlying diseases because they're 90 years old. The ARDS could have been caused by influenza but, due to the CDC direction, the mortician/doctor put down COVID-19 resulting in overcounting COVID-19 deaths.



What's your reference? You're pointing at an ICD code guidance, not actual CDC guidance on death certificates. The links I provided were death-certificate guidance.

The ICD Code, if you're not aware, is like the primary-key to a database (to all us Techies here). Or if you're not a techie, the ICD code is like the Dewey-Decimal Code on the old catalog card systems. Anything COVID19 related gets the ICD code, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the death certificate will say COVID19 will be the primary cause of death.

There have been many examples of people who died with COVID19 but have *NOT* been counted by the CDC as a COVID19 death.









						Teenage boy whose death was linked to coronavirus 'turned away from urgent care for not having insurance'
					

Mayor confirms teenager’s death with heart-breaking statement: ‘The Friday before he died, he was healthy ... By Wednesday, he was dead’




					www.independent.co.uk
				






> However, Los Angeles’ County Department of Public Health later said the teen’s death was taken off a list of deaths associated with Covid-19 in the area. The department said the CDC would complete an investigation into the teen’s death. It remained unclear what symptoms he may have been experiencing prior to his death.



Simply dying with COVID19 in your blood doesn't necessarily mean you're counted as a COVID19 death.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 6, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> They usually write influenza down. The flu is one of the biggest killers in the USA. In fact, Influenza is ICD-code J09.X2. (Actually, there are a bunch of different Flu viruses and I'm pretty sure they get different ICD codes).


I linked sources for this.  The influenza code was only used 3000-15000 times per year over the past many years.  The reason why people say 60000+ is because influenza is grouped with pneumonia which is a far more common cause of death.  Just because someone died of pneumonia doesn't necessarily mean they had influenza.  Just going off of those numbers compared to the mortality data, the influenza code is used at 17% or lower from what CDC estimates simply because physicians don't use the influenza code.  There's no reason why the COVID-19 code shouldn't be at 17% or less too.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Simply dying with COVID19 in your blood doesn't necessarily mean you're counted as a COVID19 death.


Which is the way it should be.  Page 29, they tell physicians to write "probable" or "presumed" if it isn't conclusive:


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 6, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I linked sources for this.  The influenza code was only used 3000-15000 times per year over the past many years.  The reason why people say 60000+ is because influenza is grouped with pneumonia which is a far more common cause of death.  Just because someone died of pneumonia doesn't necessarily mean they had influenza.  Just going off of those numbers compared to the mortality data, the influenza code is used at 17% or lower from what CDC estimates simply because physicians don't use the influenza code.  There's no reason why the COVID-19 code shouldn't be at 17% or less too.








						Archived Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC
					

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC




					www.cdc.gov
				






> CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 48.8 million illnesses, more than 22.7 million medical visits, 959,000 hospitalizations, and 79,400 deaths during the 2017–2018 influenza season.





> Third, we used a mathematical model to estimate influenza-associated deaths, which relies on information about location of death from death certificates. However, death certificate data during the 2017–2018 season were not available at the time of estimation. We have used death certification data from the 2014–2015 influenza season as a proxy, as the 2014–2015 season had similar circulating viruses and death certificate data were available from the National Center for Health Statistics. Furthermore, our model uses the frequency of influenza-associated deaths that have cause of death related to pneumonia or influenza (P&I), other respiratory or cardiovascular (other R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-cardiovascular (non-R&C). These frequencies were not available from the 2017–2018 season at the time of estimation, so we used the 2014–2015 frequencies as a proxy. Analysis comparing the frequency of P&I, other R&C, and non-R&C causes of death across the 2012–2013 through 2015–2016 influenza seasons suggests that the distribution of cause of death within an age group does not vary substantially between seasons.



Death is complicated, and requires many months, or even years, of modeling, machine learning, sentiment analysis, statistics, and other math / SASS programs to distill.

Nonetheless, the CDC works to make a singular, consistent, figure year-to-year so that we can compare our death numbers to other years in a consistent manner. This is why I'm confident that all countries will have different counts, because the statisticians of each country need to make their own figures self-consistent with their own health agencies.

EDIT:


> Page 29, they tell physicians to write "probable" or "presumed" if it isn't conclusive:



You know that the USA doesn't have enough test kits to prove every COVID19 case, right? If it is the opinion of the doctor that its a COVID19 case, who are you (or I) to disagree?


----------



## Tatty_One (May 6, 2020)

We have never hit capacity across the country as far as I am aware, there were a couple of reports about 5 weeks ago of one of the London hospitals on one day being code red (ICU Full) so they just took any new cases to the other London hospitals for 24 hours, shortly after that we had our Super Hospitals coming on line, they really have not been needed, the one in London has 4000 beds and in the 4.5 weeks it has been open less than 100 patients have been admitted, in Birmingham our 2nd City (20 miles from where I live) the Super hospital opened a week later with a 3000 bed capacity but they opened with just 500 beds and I don't think it has been used so despite a high death rate the cases have been managed.  I am not sure though how the hospitals in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have faired but I have not caught anything on the news significantly relating to capacity...…. I think in England for the last couple of weeks we have been at around 50-60% capacity but I know there was a very tough period of about 3 weeks for healthcare staff and still is in our residential care system.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 6, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Archived Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC
> 
> 
> Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC
> ...


The problem is that this is the first time ever CDC is telling people to use quantifiers like "probable" and "presumed."  Under no context has this ever been done before.  That's why doctors are raising red flags on these recommendations.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 6, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> The problem is that this is the first time ever CDC is telling people to use quantifiers like "probable" and "presumed."  Under no context has this ever been done before.








						CDC H1N1 Flu | Questions and Answers Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1
					






					www.cdc.gov
				






> i.e. cases of presumed influenza and/or pneumonia based on ICD-9 coded  hospitalizations or death reports each week.



Seems like they were using "presumed H1N1" Influenza back in 2009.

EDIT: And this is America. If you don't like the CDC numbers, then feel free to use New York's numbers, which split off their statistics into "confirmed" and "presumed" cases. This is why we have different 50 agencies across our 50 states, so that things are done how the locals want them to do. The CDC continues to report in the way it always has, but locals are free to make their own numbers.

Its not like the CDC really needs COVID19 on every death certificate to figure it out anyway. Statisticians will figure out the pattern of excess deaths and figure out the truth in a year's time or so. The truth will eventually come out (and I bet you, that the numbers will be revised upwards as more analysis is applied to the numbers). Weekly deaths is far higher in USA than typical, in far excess of COVID19 / presumed COVID19 deaths.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 6, 2020)

> Beginning August 30, 2009, CDC modified this surveillance and asked states to report either laboratory confirmed hospitalizations and deaths or syndromic cases, i.e. cases of presumed influenza and/or pneumonia based on ICD-9 coded hospitalizations or death reports each week. This is a new system will be used to monitor trends in hospitalizations and deaths. CDC believes this system will provide a fuller picture of the burden of serious flu illness and deaths during this pandemic. This number will be cross-checked periodically against modeling studies to assess its validity. CDC has provided guidance for states on how to count and report these cases.


It seems like H1N1 was the first time they asked people to use those qualifiers and they're targeting them specifically for analysis. So CDCs mortality statistics, when they come out, should be quite accurate.  Well...at least as accurate as influenza is...which is to say...not.   Better than nothing though. 

Looks like CDC is publishing a running, weekly, total:





						Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

National Center for Health Statistics




					www.cdc.gov
				



Only 4 weeks (ending dates), USA went over expected deaths:
3/28/2020 104%
4/4/2020 117%
4/11/2020 125%
4/18/2020 115%

New York City, February 1 to May 2, has 223% more deaths than expected.

Oooo, visualization going back to 2017 of expected deaths per week versus actual:





						Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
					

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.




					www.cdc.gov
				



United States:



New York City:


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 6, 2020)

May 6th for Louisiana:

30,399 cases (29,,996 on May 5th)
2,094 deaths (2,042 May 5th)
1,465 hospitalized (1,512 on May 5th)
187 on ventilators (194 on May 5th)
194,672 tests have been conducted (188,231 on May 5th) -in a population of 4.6 million

20,316 Presumed recovered (17,303 on May 1st) confirmed this stat is only being updated weekly.


----------



## HTC (May 7, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I think only France was counting care home deaths.


Portugal has, since the beginning.



HTC said:


> Portugal's stance on the fatalities it declares from COVID-19: regardless of if they had other illnesses prior to catching COVID-19 or had something caused by COVID-19, the cause of death is officially stated as due to COVID-19.



Portugal's Azores archipelago currently has 13 deaths from COVID-19: *TEN* of those were in a single retirement home complex.

Today, they closed the place and moved all the residents as well as those with COVID-19: they had already tested everybody, between residents and workers.


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 7, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal has, since the beginning.


Our state has been counting nursing home, assisted living and long term care home facility deaths since the beginning. Those places have had a much higher rate of infection and death than the general population. In fact Louisiana’s first death was at an assisted living center.


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## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

In NL, we now know that just about half of all Covid related deaths have happened in nursing homes.

Another similarity is the expected versus actual pressure on IC beds. Despite the dangerous peak, it also quickly died down and never reached the worst case prognosis we prepared for at 2500 beds. We reached about half of it. Surprisingly similar to what @Tatty_One pointed out.

We've also gone full retard officially as of yesterday, making a non medical mouth mask (wet toilet paper, just fine.... ) mandatory in public traffic. I'm so glad I have a car. Most definitely not going to wear a scarf in summer 'out of solidarity'... serious damage in faith in humanity occurs here. It apparently makes people feel better. Puzzling, but let's see how long that really sticks...


----------



## HTC (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> In NL, we now know that just about half of all Covid related deaths have happened in nursing homes.
> 
> Another similarity is the expected versus actual pressure on IC beds. Despite the dangerous peak, it also quickly died down and never reached the worst case prognosis we prepared for at 2500 beds. We reached about half of it. Surprisingly similar to what @Tatty_One pointed out.
> 
> We've also gone full retard officially as of yesterday, *making a non medical mouth mask **(wet toilet paper, just fine....* ) mandatory in public traffic. I'm so glad I have a car. Most definitely not going to wear a scarf in summer 'out of solidarity'... serious damage in faith in humanity occurs here. It apparently makes people feel better. Puzzling, but let's see how long that really sticks...


I'm perfectly OK with a non medical mouth mask but "wet toiler paper"?????

It's mandatory over here in the public transport system: don't have one, not allowed to board. If found on board without a mask, they'll get from 120€ to 350€ fine. There's even those vending machines with masks and surgical gloves now, mostly on train / metro stations but elsewhere too: much better than fast food, and healthier too.

Supposedly, the vehicles were supposed to transport only up to 2/3 of their total capacity but, especially in rush hours, this is not being done with many BUSes, for example, being like before COVID-19: packed.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

HTC said:


> I'm perfectly OK with a non medical mouth mask but "wet toiler paper"?????
> 
> It's mandatory over here in the public transport system: don't have one, not allowed to board. If found on board without a mask, they'll get from 120€ to 350€ fine. There's even those vending machines with masks and surgical gloves now, mostly on train / metro stations but elsewhere too: much better than fast food, and healthier too.
> 
> Supposedly, the vehicles were supposed to transport only up to 2/3 of their total capacity but, especially in rush hours, this is not being done with many BUSes, for example, being like before COVID-19: packed.



It can be anything, from a scarf, some self made contraption, a plastic tank over your head... all with varying effectiveness and counter-productiveness. None of it truly helpful, all the evidence points at a highly conditional, mild effect _at best. _And that effect is ONLY PRESENT if you add strict personal hygiene and never take the mask off and put it on again without washing your hands.

Who are we kidding?


----------



## HTC (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> It can be anything, from a scarf, some self made contraption, a plastic tank over your head... all with varying effectiveness and counter-productiveness. None of it truly helpful, all the evidence points at a highly conditional, mild effect _at best. _And that effect is ONLY PRESENT if you add strict personal hygiene and never take the mask off and put it on again without washing your hands.
> 
> Who are we kidding?


I realize there's not enough masks for the whole population, and this is true for pretty much every single country.

Still, not everyone needs to go out @ the same time so it's quite feasible for everyone to wear masks while out.

Personally, i have 2 masks that can be re-used: one was provided by my employer and is good for "25 to 30" washing cycles and is this exact model:



			https://piranhasupplies.com/wp-content/uploads/ptx_mask_v2.pdf
		


The other is a "community mask" but isn't a "medical grade" mask: it can also be washed but fewer times before needing to be replaced.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

HTC said:


> I realize there's not enough masks for the whole population, and this is true for pretty much every single country.
> 
> Still, not everyone needs to go out @ the same time so it's quite feasible for everyone to wear masks while out.
> 
> ...



Even if we had enough masks, I would not wear one. I also will not wear one, because there is no scientific basis for it, and I despise this herd mentality. They can keep their mindless drones in Asia.

What needs to happen is acceptance of risk and correct mitigation of it. This is not the way. Note; even all the epidemiologists and virologists unanimously agree on this. The decision to still use them, is based on other factors entirely. It has nothing to do with reduction of infection risk.

Also note: your emotional smiley response under this post. Herd mentality. Am I not still allowed to think for myself? What is happening here? Its worth reflecting on. The psychological effect works in both ways, and there is going to be a long term backlash too.


----------



## HTC (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> *Even if we had enough masks, I would not wear one.*
> 
> Also note: your emotional smiley response under this post. Herd mentality. Am I not still allowed to think for myself? What is happening here? Its worth reflecting on. The psychological effect works in both ways, and there is going to be a long term backlash too.


This is the reason for the "angry" smiley.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 7, 2020)

Boris is going to do an announcement on Sunday here in the UK, the feeling is we are going to start relaxing some of the Lockdown measures starting next week, pretty sure it is very small steps initially, no schools opening in the first wave of relaxation but some sectors are likely to start back to work as long as there are strict safety measures enforced in the work place around social distancing, the provision of medical grade hand washes etc...…. although I still remain sceptical.

It is also believed that to travel on any form of public transport some form of face covering will be required, whether that be a mask, scarf or home made thing, I see Spain are already doing similar but providing initially 6 million face masks at public transport hubs for it's people to wear, I predict within a month or so there will be 2 million people travelling to work in London on the Underground during rush hour, I am looking forward to see how they restrict numbers so that social distancing is in place.

There is a hope that small family gatherings can happen but outside in private gardens with social distancing observed, I am hopeful on that one if only because it's my wife's birthday next Thursday and she is desperate to see our daughters and granddaughter, for me selfishly if they allow that, they are likely to allow fishing again as it's very easy to distance when fishing   But just in case I have ordered my wife a T Shirt for her birthday, it says printed on it "_I had my 60th birthday  whilst in lockdown and all I got was this stupid T Shirt"  

Edit: Pics

_


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## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> But just in case I have ordered my wife a T Shirt for her birthday, it says printed on it "_I had my 60th birthday  whilst in lockdown and all I got was this stupid T Shirt"  _



OK that is just awesome


----------



## HTC (May 7, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Boris is going to do an announcement on Sunday here in the UK, *the feeling is we are going to start relaxing some of the Lockdown measures starting next week*, pretty sure it is very small steps initially, no schools opening in the first wave of relaxation but some sectors are likely to start back to work as long as there are strict safety measures enforced in the work place around social distancing, the provision of medical grade hand washes etc...…. although I still remain sceptical.


Not sure if this isn't a bit premature: too high number of new daily cases, IMO.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 7, 2020)

HTC said:


> Not sure if this isn't a bit premature: too high number of new daily cases, IMO.


Well he says he is following the Science guidance, this week we are testing the contact tracing app they have put together with an aim to roll it out before the end of this month, I don't think schools will re-open before the infection rates lower significantly but in context infection rates are a third of what they were 3 weeks ago during the peak, the measures will be very small though, smaller than even Italy or Spain introduced in their first wave...…… but as I said, I remain sceptical but he has already said it will start from Monday, we just don't know what.


----------



## HTC (May 7, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Well he says *he is following the Science guidance*, this week we are testing the contact tracing app they have put together with an aim to roll it out before the end of this month, I don't think schools will re-open before the infection rates lower significantly but in context infection rates are a third of what they were 3 weeks ago during the peak, the measures will be very small though, smaller than even Italy or Spain introduced in their first wave...…… but as I said, I remain sceptical but he has already said it will start from Monday, we just don't know what.



Our Director-General of Health, on March 22nd, was saying not to wear masks because they caused a "false sense of security"









						Graça Freitas: ″Não use máscara, é falsa sensação de segurança″
					

"Não use máscara, é uma falsa sensação de segurança", reiterou a diretora-geral da Saúde, este domingo. E as máscaras de tecido "nem sequer são impermeáveis". O essencial da proteção é "o distanciamento social", frisou Graça Freitas.




					translate.google.com
				




And now they are mandatory, @ least in Public Tansportation.

The understanding of this virus is changing, and so are the Science guide recommendations.


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## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

HTC said:


> Our Director-General of Health, on March 22nd, was saying not to wear masks because they caused a "false sense of security"
> 
> 
> 
> ...



There are different fields of science and they are at odds with one another. When it comes to a virus and its spread, I listen to the virologist and epidemiologist. I also understand the psychological angle, which is the main 'scientific' reason a mouth masks becoming mandatory in places. And sure, a mouth mask will possibly create a minimal reduction in the infection rate number, but again... there are so many caveats to that, the net result in practice across large groups of people is definitively, clearly going to be zero - or negative, due to false sense of security. The only places in which I understand mask usage is in any frequent-contact profession. You are at elevated risk and its worth mitigating that. Everyone else? Nah.

Its not really rocket science if you think of it. The fact you feel more comfy with a mouth mask is a direct confirmation of that false sense of security. Its the very reason you want it.

Anyway, that is my last word on masks, before we trigger a back and forth here that is unwanted.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 7, 2020)

What is required to make a sensible decision is a clear understanding of the following:

How much viral matter is expelled in normal breath: how far does that spread and can it be reduced sufficiently.

What viral load is required to contract the illness.

What minimisation of that viral matter is created through various fabrics and masks.


And please, don't reply with links. If someone has a link, summarise the content and post link (for verification).

I know there are images of coughing, breathing etc through a fabric mask but that's meaningless. Force of expiration is a huge factor in volume and spread of breath. For example, in shops, I shallow breath through my nose with mouth closed. I know that creates less expired air.

Unfortunately, there isn't any clear science that ties up the issue of masks, viral expiration, and transmission level.

So, non-medical masks are a placebo until the science brings the argument into one, verifiable study.


----------



## HTC (May 7, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Unfortunately, there isn't any clear science that ties up the issue of masks, viral expiration, and transmission level.
> 
> So, non-medical masks are a placebo until the science brings the argument into one, verifiable study.



IMO, the biggest help ANY mask provides is that it forces the user NOT to touch the mouth or nose because they are covered: couple that with frequent washing of hands and even infected people shouldn't be able to infect others *via surfaces*, while the social distancing helps with viral expiration and transmission.

Obviously, this hinges on the fact that masks are being used correctly, which unfortunately is often not the case.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its not really rocket science if you think of it. The fact you feel more comfy with a mouth mask is a direct confirmation of that false sense of security. Its the very reason you want it.


Feeling completely naked against the virus makes people do what works: social distancing.  False sense of security because of cloth masks makes people forget about distancing.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 7, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Feeling completely naked against the virus makes people do what works: social distancing.  False sense of security because of cloth masks makes people forget about distancing.



Naked or die.  That's always been my motto.  I feel so vindicated.


----------



## HTC (May 7, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 26715 confirmed infected --- 533 more
- 2258 recovered --- 182 more
- 1105 fatalities --- 16 more
- 262572 suspected cases --- 531 more
- 470234 tests taken --- no change
- 2492 waiting for test results --- 174 more
- 27318 under watch from authorities --- 2739 more
- 874 hospitalized --- 36 more
- 135 in ICU --- *1 less*

A significant spike in hospitalized and infected is seeing a more "aggressive" upward trend ... and this is before we observe the result of lockdown easing measures.



FordGT90Concept said:


> Feeling completely naked against the virus makes people do what works: social distancing.  *False sense of security because of cloth masks makes people forget about distancing.*



That's the exact argument or Health Director-General was using when she said it wasn't worth it to use masks, back in March (see post #1324), but she was referring to ANY masks, cloth AND proper medical masks, though she did enphasize more cloth masks.

The thing is masks alone aren't sufficient just as washing hands alone is insufficient and just as social distancy alone is also insufficient BUT, combine all three and their protection is VERY good.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> It can be anything, from a scarf, some self made contraption, a plastic tank over your head... all with varying effectiveness and counter-productiveness. None of it truly helpful, all the evidence points at a highly conditional, mild effect _at best. _And that effect is ONLY PRESENT if you add strict personal hygiene and never take the mask off and put it on again without washing your hands.
> 
> Who are we kidding?











						The Practice of Wearing Surgical Masks during the COVID-19 Pandemic
					

Letters to the Editor




					wwwnc.cdc.gov
				






> Nevertheless, mechanistic studies found that surgical masks could prevent transmission of human coronavirus and influenza virus infections if worn by infected persons (_2_)





> Although evidence is limited for their effectiveness in preventing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, either for source control or to reduce exposure, the wearing of masks by healthy persons may prevent potential asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission (_3_)



Its very difficult to protect yourself with a mask.

But its very easy to protect *others* with a mask. If you are an asymtomatic carrier of COVID19, wearing a mask will prevent transmission to other people.



the54thvoid said:


> What is required to make a sensible decision is a clear understanding of the following:
> 
> How much viral matter is expelled in normal breath: how far does that spread and can it be reduced sufficiently.
> 
> ...











						Simple Respiratory Mask: Simple Respiratory Mask
					






					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				






> A Hanes Heavyweight 100% preshrunk cotton T-shirt (made in Honduras) (http://www.hanesprintables.com/Globals/Faq.aspx) was boiled for 10 minutes and air-dried to maximize shrinkage and sterilize the material in a manner available in developing countries. A scissor, marker, and ruler were used to cut out 1 outer layer (≈37 × 72 cm) and 8 inner layers (<18 cm2). The mask was assembled and fitted as shown in the Figure.





> Although insufficient for the workplace, this mask offered substantial protection from the challenge aerosol and showed good fit with minimal leakage. The other 2 authors with LANL panel face size 10, the largest size, achieved fit factors of 13 and 17 by making the prototype mask inner layers slightly larger (22 cm2).



A "Challenge Aerosol" is a spray with a distinctive smell. You spray the aerosol into the air, and test if you can smell it. The reduction of your sense of smell proves that the mask is working, because the aerosol has similar properties to the droplets of moisture that carries viruses. The "fit factor" is a test to see how well the mask stays on your face. The #1 issue with this home-made mask design is that it falls off easier, requiring you to touch your face / mask often to reposition it.

It seems *possible* to make an effective respirator mask out of cotton. However, it requires testing and designs that frankly, the average person won't do. But the paper gives us an idea of how we can get there. We need a source of a strong smell that has similar properties of the virus to test against. We need to test our designs after creating them, and redoing our designs when we find out that they don't work.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The Practice of Wearing Surgical Masks during the COVID-19 Pandemic
> 
> 
> Letters to the Editor
> ...



*might. If you don't ever touch it with your hands. And clean it every few hours. And and and. That is a discipline you expect from health workers, not the average Joe. And they won't anyway. So, the net result is a mask is mostly 'the social norm' with very little practical use. I've been through this discussion weeks ago  I will not, shall not be part of that idiocy.

Its also extremely uncomfortable.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> *might. If you don't ever touch it with your hands. And clean it every few hours. And and and. That is a discipline you expect from health workers, not the average Joe. And they won't anyway. So, the net result is a mask is mostly 'the social norm' with very little practical use. I've been through this discussion weeks ago  I will not, shall not be part of that idiocy.
> 
> Its also extremely uncomfortable.



In the case of transmission, the COVID19 virus is on the *inside* of the mask, not on the outside. As such, the typical user who continuously touches the *outside* of the mask still is protecting others while wearing it.

The #1 use of masks is to prevent asymptomatic transmission of the virus. The mask protects others, not yourself under typical layperson situations. Note that surgical masks achieve the same purpose. (Surgical Masks are *NOT* N95 rated at all. Surgical masks protect the patient, not the doctor/nurses).

COVID19 is unique in that it has a long, 5 to 7 day asymptomatic transmission period. You spread the virus for nearly a week before getting symptoms. For those 5 to 7 days, you can protect others if you simply wear a mask.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> In the case of transmission, the COVID19 virus is on the *inside* of the mask, not on the outside. As such, the typical user who continuously touches the *outside* of the mask still is protecting others while wearing it.
> 
> The #1 use of masks is to prevent asymptomatic transmission of the virus. The mask protects others, not yourself under typical layperson situations. Note that surgical masks achieve the same purpose. (Surgical Masks are *NOT* N95 rated at all. Surgical masks protect the patient, not the doctor/nurses).



Oh, you know all your Covid is going to kindly sit on the inner layer of a piece of cloth? Health workers have a very high positive covid %, despite protective gear. But sure, we will do better!

Not convinced, sorry... I'm far more easily convinced by policy that is equipped to handle a certain infection rate and scaled accordingly. Masks have no reliable effect on spread, so they should not be part of policy. Its not complicated.

Also, the CDC paper is not a credible number for me. Its a US stat, one of the countries with the worst policy regarding this crisis, and leading in deaths.



dragontamer5788 said:


> 1. Viruses have no flagella or motor skills. This isn't a bacterium that can move, it is almost entirely a passive ball of RNA that sits on water droplets.
> 
> 2. You don't need to stop all COVID19 to have a good effect. Single-layer Cotton T-Shirts has been shown to be 60% effective against 0.3um aerosols, which means that anyone wearing a cotton cloth mask will spew out 60% fewer COVID19 viruses than normal.



Yeah, like I said, I've been all over this weeks back and my conclusion has not changed. To each their own, there are many alternative facts you can choose from.

Going to leave it at that, as was my intent a page back  The scientific consensus has NOT changed.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Oh, you know all your Covid is going to kindly sit on the inner layer of a piece of cloth?



1. Viruses have no flagella or motor skills. This isn't a bacterium that can move, it is almost entirely a passive ball of RNA that sits on water droplets. The entirety of the virus's movement comes from your breath.

2. You don't need to stop all COVID19 to have a good effect. Single-layer Cotton T-Shirts has been shown to be 60% effective against 0.3um aerosols, which means that anyone wearing a cotton cloth mask will spew out 60% fewer COVID19 viruses than normal. N95 masks are only tested against 0.3um aerosols, as for some physics reason (I don't understand), 0.3um is the hardest sized pratical to drop. (Smaller is easier, apparently. So no one bothers to test anything smaller than 0.3um)



> Health workers have a very high positive covid %, despite protective gear. But sure, we will do better!



Note that N95 means 95% effective against 0.3um aerosol. Not even a N95 mask is 100% effective. There are N99 and N100 masks available, but they're too expensive for health care workers to use.

We're not trying to do "better" than health care workers. We're trying to do better than a maskless individual. Anything is likely better than 0% effectiveness. I think the cotton-cloth of 60% effectiveness gives us an idea of what we can do with home-materials.

EDIT: Note that those surgical masks that nurses / doctors wear are 0% effective. They have no N-rating at all. They still have been shown to protect the patient from doctor->patient transmission during a surgery however. This is the level that we're hoping to achieve with deployed home-made masks.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Anything is likely better than 0% effectiveness.



This reads as 'grasping at straws'. There is no scientific basis. There is some indication it MIGHT help. Not supported by evidence, but only by lab tests. Society is not a lab environment. People are not lab rats. Its a simple as that. If you want to live in the illusion you will have noticeable effect when people wear a mask every day without symptoms, but go about their business in every other way and doing better that way, than when they know they need to adhere to social distancing OR ELSE they can spread it... be my guest.

I don't like illusions and you really oughta think this through, thinking about being a normal dude in society doing your daily routine. What are we creating here? I think we are creating a monstrosity of fear and doubt that nobody really wanted. By jumping on the mask hype train, we lend credibility to that fear. Its not healthy.

It also postpones the necessary discussion that we need to be having publicly: what degree of risk will we accept in terms of transmission. Which means: what do we accept from one another, socially, as well. The mask is a way to flee from that reality, for now. It is policy without vision and hopefully a fast expiry date.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Not supported by evidence


----------



## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 154123



Oh wow. Well, now you're not doing yourself a service at all. This was globally debunked. So this is your basis? A random social media post? Man... Do you get it now, why I don't follow the masses like this?!

A different approach to this question.
How do you feel, today if someone 'infected' you with Influenza? Are they a social pariah? I'd reckon they're not, we just accept that it might happen. And that is where Covid needs to go as fast as possible, too. Mitigate the risk for high risk groups, and accept it.



dragontamer5788 said:


> I haven't heard the evidence myself yet. Care to summarize?
> 
> You weren't listening to the scientific papers I listed earlier. So lemme try something else. Cotton masks have been shown to be an effective Respirator Mask. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3373043/. I already posted this, but you weren't really following that. So lets try something a bit less scientific.



No, I'm done here, as I've tried to put across several times, as this is still meant for stats and maps, plus its an old discussion and the conditions have not changed.

One telling sign is you're trying to talk me into a mask, why? To solidify your own idea about it? Must I really be part of the flock that badly for it to be a good, credible flock?

Psychology...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Oh wow. Well, now you're not doing yourself a service at all. This was globally debunked. So this is your basis? A random social media post? Man...



I haven't heard the "debunk" myself yet. Care to summarize?



> A random social media post?



You weren't listening to the scientific papers I listed earlier. So lemme try something else. Cotton masks have been shown to be an effective Respirator Mask. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3373043/. I already posted this, but you weren't really following that. So lets try something a bit less scientific.

When Logos doesn't work, I switch to Pathos and Ethos. Standard debate strategy, surely you can't blame me for that?

EDIT:


Vayra86 said:


> One telling sign is you're trying to talk me into a mask, why?



If you become a carrier of COVID19, there will be a 5-to-7 day period where you will transmit the virus without feeling symptoms. *YOU* need to wear a mask to prevent COVID19 from escaping your body. Simple hygiene in these times. And there's no way to know if you're an asymptomatic transmitter unless you're getting tested all the time. (this 5 to 7 day onset period does NOT have a cough or fever associated with it).

If it were easier to make a respirator mask to protect myself... then yeah, I'd just wear a mask and not care. But the evidence is in. Masks protect the public by *covering up the infected*, in practice. Its supremely difficult to make an effective Respirator mask, but it is grossly easier to make a "surgical" mask (where the asymptomatic infected protect everyone else).


----------



## the54thvoid (May 7, 2020)

Okay, so the mask debate has gone far enough. (I was involved - yes).

Let's try and stay on topic of the cheery stats of infections, deaths and other such measurable things.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 7, 2020)

@Tatty_One, I appreciate the point of view, even if im not responding to your post. (or am I???)

Moving back to the discussion, something very interesting is happening in Maryland / USA, so I think I'll muse about it a bit.









						Coronavirus - Maryland Department of Health
					

Visit the Maryland Department of Health's official resource for the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak.



					coronavirus.maryland.gov
				




We're still getting +1000ish cases per day, every day (up from a few weeks ago). However, our hospitalization rate has plateaued. Earlier this week, we had 5-days of fewer hospitalizations (the last 2 days have seen a slight increase of only +14 or so hospitalizations).

The explanation is likely... https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...d449a4-8311-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html

Maryland seems to have ramped up our testing. We have more tests, and are therefore seeing more cases per day. We don't "really" have more cases per day, we're just detecting more cases per day. Our governor has chosen to focus on the hospitalization / ICU numbers instead of the death (trailing indicator) or cases detected. As testing ramps up in this part (and other parts) of the country, keep that in mind. Keep an eye on the negative test results (if your state is reporting them).


----------



## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> @Tatty_One, I appreciate the point of view, even if im not responding to your post. (or am I???)
> 
> Moving back to the discussion, something very interesting is happening in Maryland / USA, so I think I'll muse about it a bit.
> 
> ...



Exactly... that is the way forward. Have test capacity, and catch infections early, quarantine fast. Its how China got it under control, its how we should be doing it now or soonish. Meanwhile, rest of society can keep going. You just kinda have to kill this with fire, all the time. This is also supported by evidence from several countries by now. The ones doing best, were the ones who had something like this up and going ASAP.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 7, 2020)

For almost 2 weeks now the UK has day on day less infections, less admissions to hospital and less people in ICU beds and whilst fatality figures are still pretty high (too high) sadly a lot of that remains in residential Care homes but as my Wife tells me (she is a Nurse), many of the people sadly dying in hospital today got infected 4-6 weeks ago as many of the worst cases can be on ventilators for 3+ weeks and it kind of skews the picture.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 7, 2020)

Heh just found this...



			https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/eclinm/PIIS2589-5370(20)30100-0.pdf
		

Feel free to delete if not wanted. There is more, too.








						Facemasks and similar barriers to prevent respiratory illness such as COVID-19: A rapid systematic review
					

The current pandemic of COVID-19 has lead to conflicting opinions on whether wearing facemasks outside of health care facilities protects against the infection. To better understand the value of wearing facemasks we undertook a rapid systematic review of existing scientific evidence about...




					www.medrxiv.org
				



And


			A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers | BMJ Open
		


Pick your poison... This is all source material, not 'press'.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 7, 2020)

UK Update 7 May:


----------



## Xzibit (May 8, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I linked sources for this.  The influenza code was only used 3000-15000 times per year over the past many years.  The reason why people say 60000+ is because influenza is grouped with pneumonia which is a far more common cause of death.  Just because someone died of pneumonia doesn't necessarily mean they had influenza.  Just going off of those numbers compared to the mortality data, the influenza code is used at 17% or lower from what CDC estimates simply because physicians don't use the influenza code.  There's no reason why the COVID-19 code shouldn't be at 17% or less too.
> 
> 
> Which is the way it should be.  Page 29, they tell physicians to write "probable" or "presumed" if it isn't conclusive:
> View attachment 154020



Not sure if this has been pointed out before

Hospital which report a patient due to COVID-19 get


			
				American Hospital Association said:
			
		

> A Medicare add-on payment of 20% for both rural and urban inpatient hospital COVID-19 patients
> 
> During the emergency period, the legislation provides a 20% add-on to the DRG rate for patients with COVID-19. This add-on will apply to patients treated at rural and urban inpatient prospective payment system (IPPS) hospitals.



A patient with COVID19 is more financial beneficial then a non-covid patient.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 8, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> Not sure if this has been pointed out before
> 
> Hospital which report a patient due to COVID-19 get
> 
> ...


One has to hope there is some kind of audit system for that, otherwise the Government is going to be paying $Billions for the farmer in Mississippi who collapses and dies in his field because of a heart attack with nothing linking to the virus.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 8, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> One has to hope there is some kind of audit system for that, otherwise the Government is going to be paying $Billions for the farmer in Mississippi who collapses and dies in his field because of a heart attack with nothing linking to the virus.


Nope, there isn't.  Audits cost money.  Cheaper to just write the check and ignore it.


This one lacks a world view perspective and dismisses obvious problems because of it:


> https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/eclinm/PIIS2589-5370(20)30100-0.pdf
> 
> 
> 94.8% of pedestrians wore masks of which
> ...


Meanwhile, healthcare professionals all over the world are reusing surgical masks 5+ times.  They're desperate for anything while Hong Kongers are burning through them like tissues during a cold.

When you consider the studies below where surgical masks only slow the infection rate by 6%, and the fact that almost everyone has masks and they're not working in healthcare, their mass behavior is detrimental to those at the highest risk.


This one is self explanatory:


> Facemasks and similar barriers to prevent respiratory illness such as COVID-19: A rapid systematic review
> 
> 
> The current pandemic of COVID-19 has lead to conflicting opinions on whether wearing facemasks outside of health care facilities protects against the infection. To better understand the value of wearing facemasks we undertook a rapid systematic review of existing scientific evidence about...
> ...



A direct refutiation of the first article:


> A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers | BMJ Open
> 
> 
> Critical shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) have resulted in the US Centers for Disease Control downgrading their recommendations for health workers treating COVID-19 patients from respirators to surgical masks and finally to home-made cloth masks.
> ...


In other words the public use of surgical masks and respirators in Hong Kong, China, and South Korea are making the pandemic worse everywhere else.


Other than the myopic study in Hong Kong, these other two papers directly refutes the idea of widespread face coverings.  At most: high risk people in high risk environments for very short durations.  Healthcare professionals need respirators and anyone using them when they shouldn't be are putting them at risk.


----------



## HTC (May 8, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 27268 confirmed infected --- 553 more
- 2422 recovered --- 164 more
- 1114 fatalities --- 9 more
- 269266 suspected cases --- 3694 more
- 501718 tests taken --- 31484 more
- 2984 waiting for test results --- 318 more
- 26829 under watch from authorities --- *489 less*
- 842 hospitalized --- *32 less*
- 127 in ICU --- *8 less*

Portugal has now crossed the half-a-million tests performed mark: that's roughly 50K tests per 1M inhabitants.

Infected number has increased by over 450 for the 3rd day in a row, after several days of 250 or less per day, and this is before the ease of lockdown measures begin to show their effects. Still, hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, so there's that good news.


----------



## ozkisses (May 8, 2020)

Reading back on the articles presented above, further up on one of the links say 

"The suggestion that  cloth masks  can lead to increased  infection  compared to no mask is not substantiated  The control arm had less than 1% of no mask use and therefore the statement is an assumption  not a proof . "

Researchers world wide are disagreeing and rightfully so as there  hasn't been the time needed to conduct thorough research. Currently researchers are working towards supporting their own opinions. Which is how most research is conducted. Until more evidence is available the only thing that can be given is advise which is currently based on opinion. For every for argument there is an against at the moment.

The USA has lost over 75,000 people, not because they did or didn't wear a mask but because they contracted the virus. (yes 74,500 of those died of something different but are currently being shown in the numbers for COVID19). Medical staff are not highly represented in the positive numbers and in the state i live in are wearing any mask they can find. 

I don't even understand why you are so knicker twisted over it. In America "this isn't as bad as our flu season" and "we are doing pretty good considering our population" "it's a big fuss over nothing". 

Until there is conclusive evidence one way or the other what does it matter if people choose to wear masks or not, if that is what helps them feel a little safer at this time. It is starting to sound like empty vessel stuff. 

As I have said prior, why not wait till it is over and look at the governments the world is admiring at the moment and dissect what it was they did to protect their people and what their population did to protect themselves. Many of those countries are coming to the end of their concerns with minimal losses and without feeling an ounce of freedom lost  I know, right.


----------



## Xzibit (May 8, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> One has to hope there is some kind of audit system for that, otherwise the Government is going to be paying $Billions for the farmer in Mississippi who collapses and dies in his field because of a heart attack with nothing linking to the virus.



There is so much money to be had. There is a 100 billion fund for COVID19 compensations. Hospitals are businesses they are going to want as much as they can get.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 8, 2020)

ozkisses said:


> Reading back on the articles presented above, further up on one of the links say
> 
> "The suggestion that  cloth masks  can lead to increased  infection  compared to no mask is not substantiated  The control arm had less than 1% of no mask use and therefore the statement is an assumption  not a proof . "
> 
> ...



That last part is not concluded yet, not even in the slightest. The real problems have not yet risen to the surface. I'm totally in agreement when you say 'people should wear what they want'. If that is a mask, power to you. If its not, similarly so. The thing is, we _need to trust_ every person to take their responsibility for as far as they can or find feasible. Masks don't directly help that sense of trust. It is in fact, by definition a brand of you being a possible infection source. What we're getting now is half assed policy regarding masks, wear one here, don't need to wear one there, maybe its better if you did, maybe not. This is not going to promote the overall peace and quiet we've been enjoying up till now in social interaction. Its also a massive commercial money pit.

Still on about the god damn masks  Sigh. Sorry.

And yes, you're absolutely right, policy is what it is and we can evaluate it later, as we should too. I'm just living in one of the rather unique countries where public feedback turns into policy rather smoothly the past few months. For better, and for worse. Our actions and voices matter, a whole lot, for the way the world will look tomorrow, and how we engage in social interaction going forward.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 8, 2020)

ozkisses said:


> The USA has lost over 75,000 people, not because they did or didn't wear a mask but because they contracted the virus.


That's an assumption because US is incentivizing claiming COVID-19 without a burden of proof for reimbursement reasons.



Vayra86 said:


> I'm totally in agreement when you say 'people should wear what they want'. If that is a mask, power to you. If its not, similarly so.


Me too.  What I loath is governments ordering people to wear face coverings (effectiveness be damned) over threat of fine or imprisonment.  The research doesn't support that at all.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 8, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> That's an assumption because US is incentivizing claiming COVID-19 without a burden of proof for reimbursement reasons.
> 
> 
> Me too.  What I loath is governments ordering people to wear or over threat of fine or imprisonment.  The research doesn't support that at all.



Coming from the same government that enacted a law to prohibit face covering attributes to be worn in public (Niqab, etc). In other words, if you wear a balaclava, you can get fined. But a mask, sure!


----------



## Tatty_One (May 8, 2020)

Xzibit said:


> There is so much money to be had. There is a 100 billion fund for COVID19 compensations. Hospitals are businesses they are going to want as much as they can get.


Hopefully legally, you and all of us are going to need those tax payers $$$$ pretty soon.  On the subject of masks, in the UK they will only be required for people using public transport where they cannot safely socially distance, it's just a tool to try and make the population who are scared to go back to work feel a little more secure...... nothing more.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 8, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Me too. What I loath is governments ordering people to wear or over threat of fine or imprisonment. The research doesn't support that at all.



Is the mask discussion point *actually* over, or am I the only one who is trying to hold myself back about this?


----------



## Vayra86 (May 8, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Is the mask discussion point *actually* over, or am I the only one who is trying to hold myself back about this?



You're right. I'm shutting up


----------



## the54thvoid (May 8, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Is the mask discussion point *actually* over, or am I the only one who is trying to hold myself back about this?



Frankly, I give up. If I LQ everything, I'll get called bad names.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 8, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Is the mask discussion point *actually* over, or am I the only one who is trying to hold myself back about this?


Are you referring to this?


dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 154123


Let me fix it for you:




Cloth masks ~= no masks in terms of stopping COVID-19.  The third article I quoted from literally said this:


> It is important to note that some subjects in the control arm wore surgical masks, which could explain why *cloth masks performed poorly* compared to the control group. We also did an analysis of all mask wearers, and the *higher infection rate in cloth mask group persisted*. The cloth masks may have been worse in our study because *they were not washed well enough* – they may become damp and contaminated. The *cloth masks used in our study were products manufactured locally, and fabrics can vary in quality*.


Might as well wear a paper bag over your head; it's about as effective (probably more, because it's more like a plastic shield than a cloth mask):





If there was no shortage of surgical masks, the whole world would mimic the latter groups but not even front line workers on the left have enough surgical masks.  

These countries on the right received a wakeup call from SARS that those on the left missed.


To answer your question: "is the mask discussion point actually over?" In the scientific/research community, yes; in governance, no.  There's no health benefit to cloth masks; if they aren't cleaned well, they become a liability.  People (especially healthcare workers) _need_ surgical masks at minimum and even that only reduces their risk by 6%.  The situation is desperate.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 8, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> To answer your question: "is the mask discussion point actually over?"



A moderator has explicitly asked us to focus on COVID19 statistics *instead* of talking about masks. https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/page-54#post-4259407

Pay attention to the thread.

-----------

If this continues, I'll say my piece again about masks. But I'll hold back a bit longer. Some of the people who were talking about masks a few pages ago seem like they don't really want to talk about it anymore. So I'd rather keep the peace and keep quiet a bit longer.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 8, 2020)

Missed the SARS statistics in that picture, eh? I forgive you.    Remember what COVID-19 is: *SARS-CoV*-2.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." --George Santayana


----------



## Vayra86 (May 8, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Frankly, I give up. If I LQ everything, I'll get called bad names.



I do apologize, I might be the most frequent poster on it over the last few pages. No offense taken if its all gone tomorrow.

Its just a hot topic right now over here


----------



## HTC (May 9, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Frankly, I give up. If I LQ everything, I'll get called bad names.


I apologize for my part in this.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 9, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Frankly, I give up. If I LQ everything, I'll get called bad names.



LQ the shit out of posts and move on.  People will get over it.

Sick of this feelings bullshit.  Facts don't care about feelings and viruses don't care about feeling. Wanna wear a mask?  Good for you.  Don't wanna wear a mask?  Good for you.  You have almost the same chance of getting the virus anyway.  The fact remains no amount of testing is going to make this go away.

Hypothetical: I get tested today and it is negative, great.  Oh shit, I pick it up tomorrow.  When's my next test?  Every couple days?  Once a week?  Next month?  How long am I contagious?  How accurate are these tests?  I have heard from Doctor friends that there is a 30% false negative/positive rate.  So, now 3/10 people may have it and tested negative.

This is not going away.  Not tomorrow, not the day after that, not the week, or month.  I appreciate people's fear and they have a right to it.  We need to figure out a way to let those that want to move forward to be able to.  Those that want to stay inside, great, do that.  Unless the world wants to forgive everyone's debt, national and international as well, there is not enough money in the world to fund hiding from this virus.

It is an unfortunate truth and we need to start dealing with this reality.

Edit: Feel free to LQ this as I am not even going to try and slip some made up statistics to justify it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 9, 2020)

> Hypothetical: I get tested today and it is negative, great.  Oh shit, I pick it up tomorrow.  When's my next test?  Every couple days?  Once a week?  Next month?



Whenever you come in contact with someone who tests positive, you get retested. This is called "contact tracing". By performing tests, we can track the disease with far better accuracy. The goal is to end "community transmission". Singapore and South Korea are successfully contact tracing right now, but the disease spread too far (and there weren't enough tests) in the USA for the US to effectively contact-trace.



> How long am I contagious?



You are most contagious between days 5 and 15, which also happens to be asymptomatic in most situations.



> How accurate are these tests?  I have heard from Doctor friends that there is a 30% false negative/positive rate.  So, now 3/10 people may have it and tested negative.



False positives and false negatives are called "Selectivity" and "Specificity". I always mix up which one was which, but... its not even that hard to look up this information if you know the proper terms.









						Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Test - Hardy Diagnostics
					

Collect and transport your environmental samples from the surface to the lab efficiently and easily with Envirotrans. Long handle for those hard to reach places, leak-proof and individually sterile unit, robust construction making these tubes impact and shatter resistant.




					hardydiagnostics.com
				






> *Sensitivity at >/= 15 days after onset of symptoms*
> 
> 
> *IgM – 95.7%*
> ...





			https://www.diasorin.com/sites/default/files/allegati/liaisonr_sars-cov-2_s1s2_igg_brochure.pdf.pdf
		






There are many, many, different test kits. But selectivity and specificity is over 90% in the key 5 to 15 day period when people are most contagious.



> Unless the world wants to forgive everyone's debt, national and international as well, there is not enough money in the world to fund hiding from this virus.



Then you misunderstand the point of the lockdowns. The point of the lockdown was to get our hospitals ready. Specifically, the ability to get tests in the USA. We all know it won't be over till the vaccine is mass produced (which takes 18 months and then maybe 6+ months after that to mass produce). We'll be dealing with this virus easily into 2022.

But look how much a difference one month has made. We actually have tests tracking people in this country now. If we actually had test kits in February (like South Korea did), we probably wouldn't have had to shut down and instead could have done contact-tracing from the start (Except maybe for NYC / Washington State, the start of the outbreaks).


----------



## moproblems99 (May 9, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Whenever you come in contact with someone who tests positive, you get retested. This is called "contact tracing". By performing tests, we can track the disease with far better accuracy. The goal is to end "community transmission". Singapore and South Korea are successfully contact tracing right now, but the disease spread too far (and there weren't enough tests) in the USA for the US to effectively contact-trace.



And what if that person is not known to have it?  What if it takes them two weeks to figure it out?  What if they don't figure it out?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 9, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> And what if that person is not known to have it?  What if it takes them two weeks to figure it out?  What if they don't figure it out?



If COVID19 has an R0 of 3, then you can miss 33% of people and contact tracing will still work (even if we 100% remove the lockdown, start shaking hands, and start sharing cups at Church again).

If 100 infected becomes 300 infected over time (aka: R0 of 3), then you only have to contact-trace 201 people to make the disease drop down to 99 (aka: decay). This is one of the many reasons why it was important to figure out the R0 of COVID19.

Now COVID19 has an R0 of something between... 2 and 6. The higher the R0, the more important the contact tracing needs to be airtight. But even on the higher end (say 6), you can still miss 18% of people and things won't get worse. I'm not sure if there are better estimates of R0 yet, but we as a society have already become much better at understanding this disease.

----------

Even if we open up 100%, we probably don't have to deal with a R0 rate of infections anyway. The R (true-reproductive value) of this disease is going to be grossly lower, because people are still going to be social distancing (no more handshakes in the near future, and many people will continue teleworking). Even as churches reopen, things won't spread as quickly (maybe communion will be more sanitary, less sharing of cups, etc. etc). I don't know what the true R of COVID19 is in the USA, but it is almost certainly below 2 by now (even if we end the lockdown).

If R is down to 2 or less (because society is more defensive as we emerge from the lockdown), we contact tracing would still work even if it was only 50% effective.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 9, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> If COVID19 has an R0 of 3, then you can miss 33% of people and contact tracing will still work (even if we 100% remove the lockdown, start shaking hands, and start sharing cups at Church again).
> 
> If 100 infected becomes 300 infected over time (aka: R0 of 3), then you only have to contact-trace 201 people to make the disease drop down to 99 (aka: decay). This is one of the many reasons why it was important to figure out the R0 of COVID19.
> 
> ...



Now factor in the 30% of ineffective tests.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 9, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Now factor in the 30% of ineffective tests.



Did you miss the sensitivity and specificity post I made? 99% specificity (true negatives) and 95.7% Sensitivity (true positives) with this test: https://hardydiagnostics.com/sars-cov-2/

-----

False positives won't make things "worse", they just make things inconvenient. A false positive means you send someone to quarantine but it wasn't necessary (the test messed up). You waste 2-weeks of someone's life, but it didn't actually make the disease any worse. Most tests seem to have errors of this type, especially if you test early.

False negatives make things worse, because that's someone who SHOULD be quarantined but the test messed up and let them go. Almost all tests have a 99% specificity (aka: 1% rate of false negatives).

-------

Note: if "gold standard" tests are too expensive, then a cheap, high specificity (high true-negative rate) can be used as a multi-stage test. Even with a large false-positive rate, you simply use the cheap test as "stage 1", and then use the gold-standard test on the "maybe-positive" result. Using a two-stage test will result in cheaper healthcare (most people only need to take the cheap test).

EDIT: I am not a doctor, statistician, or health care expert. Please forgive me if I messed up sensitivity / specificity. But hopefully my main point is still correct in all this 

-------

In any case, if you have a 1% false-negative rate against an R0 of 3, your margin of error drops from 33.33% down to 32% to effectively contact trace. False positives don't matter, only false negatives, and tests seem pretty good about the false negative rate.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 9, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Did you miss the sensitivity and specificity post I made? 99% specificity (true negatives) and 95.7% Sensitivity (true positives) with this test



What I am hearing from doctors in the field (both friends and family), don't agree with anything close to 90%.  And those are the ones that are actually real, and not the counterfeit ones.

Edit:

Hey look at that, we are just about at the same level as traffic deaths in the US every year.  We might actually end up net zero deaths out of this if we stay shutdown the rest of the year. Scratch that, wrong numbers.

In any case, the 'cure' is worse than the disease at this point.  All we are doing is pushing the next wave down the road a month or two.  Let's just it get over with.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 9, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> What I am hearing from doctors in the field (both friends and family), don't agree with anything close to 90%.  And those are the ones that are actually real, and not the counterfeit ones.



There's a reason why there's more specific language. Your doctor friends could be seeing a 30% false positive rate, and the discussion points I made earlier could still be correct. Selectivity and specificity mean very precise things for a reason. (and I'm still not 100% sure if I'm using the terms correctly. But I'm doing the best I can).

EDIT: Case in point. Consider an area that conducts 10000 tests, with a "true positive" set of 300 infected. Our test is 95% sensitive and 99% specific. (These numbers are made up, but the 95% sensitive + 99% specific are from the real test I linked to earlier).

Given these made up numbers... 99% specificity means that 300 true positives come back as 397 positives, that is, 97 (or ~30%) of the tests were false-positives. The number of false-positives and false-negatives is variable, depending on the number of tests being conducted, and the size of the "true infected" population.

The other end, 95% sensitive, means 15 of the 300 "true infected" would be reported as a negative result. So we let "15" of the true infected back into the wild. But with an R0 of only ~3 or so, these 15 people will only become ~45 infected people over the next 2 weeks. Catching the 285 true infected through contact tracing would still drop the total number of true infected down. (We've gone from ~300 infected down to ~45 infected in one time step).



> In any case, the 'cure' is worse than the disease at this point.  All we are doing is pushing the next wave down the road a month or two.  Let's just it get over with.



How is contact tracing worse than the disease? Everyone, except those who were in contact with an infected person, carries on as usual. The entire point of contact tracing is that we as a society can largely get back to normal. But we're still protected as long as we keep track of say... 60% or 70%ish of the infected population.

Contact tracing requires a very large number of tests, and the lockdown period has allowed the testing kits to ramp up significantly (and it also reduced the population of infected significantly). We're getting close to the point where contact tracing will be effective in certain parts of the USA.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 9, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Frankly, I give up. If I LQ everything, I'll get called bad names.


Not by me...


----------



## Vayra86 (May 9, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> And what if that person is not known to have it?  What if it takes them two weeks to figure it out?  What if they don't figure it out?



Then you have missed one source of infection, which results in 3 new opportunities to catch those that were infected.

Its not necessary to have a 100% hit rate here. If your hit rate is enough to push the infection rate number at or preferably below 1, you have a stable situation, not much unlike the norm for every other illness.

There is no catch all solution. Even a vaccine wont be. The conclusion I draw from that is similar to yours, but luckily that is also what most governments build policy on. The misunderstanding and FUD only happens based on the irrational idea you can somehow avoid catching it.

Its an invisible enemy.


----------



## HTC (May 9, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 27406 confirmed infected --- 138 more
- 2499 recovered --- 77 more
- 1126 fatalities --- 12 more
- 272443 suspected cases --- 3177 more
- 517660 tests taken --- 15942 more
- 2955 waiting for test results --- 29 more
- 26667 under watch from authorities --- *162 less*
- 815 hospitalized --- *27 less*
- 120 in ICU --- *7 less*

Remember that chart i made a while back with 13 countries' data, using a logarithmic scale of 2?



Here's how it looks with data up to yesterday (click for full picture).

Russia is definitely "winning", with Brazil close behind ...


----------



## dirtyferret (May 9, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> That's an assumption because US is incentivizing claiming COVID-19 without a burden of proof for reimbursement reasons.


Lets stop watching fox entertainment for our news (and I'm stating this as a former fox cable network employee).  This lie is insulting to those of us who live in the current epicenter of the epidemic and know people who fight this disease and have died from it.



FordGT90Concept said:


> Me too.  What I loath is governments ordering people to wear face coverings (effectiveness be damned) over threat of fine or imprisonment.  The research doesn't support that at all.



I don't like the mask and question how effective it may be overall (I don't doubt it does have some effectiveness) but I have no problem wearing it if it gives peace of mind to people especially those that have to work minimum wage jobs yet are deemed "essential".


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 9, 2020)

dirtyferret said:


> Lets stop watching fox entertainment for our news (and I'm stating this as a former fox cable network employee).  This lie is insulting to those of us who live in the current epicenter of the epidemic and know people who fight this disease and have died from it.


Could have looked it up yourself...








						Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators
					

Hospitals are paid more for Medicare patients with COVID-19, but a senator who first said that says he doesn't think the system is being gamed.



					www.usatoday.com
				





> *Our ruling: True*
> We rate the claim that hospitals get paid more if patients are listed as COVID-19 and on ventilators as TRUE.
> 
> Hospitals and doctors do get paid more for Medicare patients diagnosed with COVID-19 or if it's considered presumed they have COVID-19 absent a laboratory-confirmed test, and three times more if the patients are placed on a ventilator to cover the cost of care and loss of business resulting from a shift in focus to treat COVID-19 cases.
> ...


They're incentivized not to test for COVID-19, put COVID-19 down as part of the diagnosis, and kick them out the door.  Bam, 20% profit increase!


----------



## dirtyferret (May 9, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Could have looked it up yourself...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


next time you link an article try including the facts that make you look foolish, from your own article

_Ask FactCheck reporter Angelo Fichera, who interviewed Jensen, noted, "Jensen said he did not think that hospitals were intentionally misclassifying cases for financial reasons. But that’s how his comments have been widely interpreted and paraded on social media."

Ask FactCheck's conclusion: "Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no evidence of fraudulent reporting."

Julie Aultman, a member of the editorial board of the American Medical Association’s Journal of Ethics, told PolitiFact it is “very unlikely that physicians or hospitals will falsify data or be motivated by money to do so.”_


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## FordGT90Concept (May 9, 2020)

It's happening (hear it from patient families and physicians being told to do it by administrators).  We have no idea how prevalent it is and we won't because HIPPA forbids cross-examination of the data (e.g. if a patient sees another doctor for a second opinion and the COVID-19 diagnosis is dispelled, the original is staying on the books and they're getting paid for it).


----------



## Tatty_One (May 9, 2020)

Maybe the Government should cut that 20% to 5% or 10% then and maybe use the money to additionally support those most financially vulnerable.


----------



## dirtyferret (May 9, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> It's happening (hear it from patient families and physicians being told to do it by administrators).  We have no idea how prevalent it is and we won't because HIPPA forbids cross-examination of the data (e.g. if a patient sees another doctor for a second opinion and the COVID-19 diagnosis is dispelled, the original is staying on the books and they're getting paid for it).


You are allowed your opinion just not your own facts making your opinion factually inaccurate and insulting to the people who risk their lives (and have lost their lives) helping others fight this disease.  You also don't have stats from the time people died from covid19 yet there were no tests (thanks to our incompetent administration) to confirm the disease.



Tatty_One said:


> Maybe the Government should cut that 20% to 5% or 10% then and maybe use the money to additionally support those most financially vulnerable.


You have hospitals that do nothing but take care of covid19 patients.  They would shut down without the support sending those patients to other hospitals and infecting people who are already sick.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 9, 2020)

dirtyferret said:


> You are allowed your opinion just not your own facts making your opinion factually inaccurate and insulting to the people who risk their lives (and have lost their lives) helping others fight this disease.  You also don't have stats from the time people died from covid19 yet there were no tests (thanks to our incompetent administration) to confirm the disease.
> 
> 
> You have hospitals that do nothing but take care of covid19 patients.  They would shut down without the support sending those patients to other hospitals and infecting people who are already sick.


Even if they get paid for what they do + 10%, that still sounds like profit.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 9, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Even if they get paid for what they do + 10%, that still sounds like profit.



My doctor neighbor are actually telling me that hospitals are losing money over this, because so many people have stopped getting elective / optional health care.

Ex: I personally was going to get braces this year. But I'm delaying that until the COVID19 calms down a bit. And elective procedures are still "essential" in my area, but there's enough people panicking over the COVID19 that elective procedures have dropped dramatically.

Well, my neighbor is specifically a dentist. Lots of people cancelling trips during this pandemic, even though its "essential" and still open by the law. I'd imagine that most hospital trips are elective procedures... like getting blood lab results, sleep apnea studies, dentistry work, orthodontics, allergy studies, etc. etc. But if people are scared and they don't come in, the hospital loses money.

The economic disaster of COVID19 extends above and beyond the lockdown. I'm not convinced that ending the lockdown would solve anything. Oil prices were crashing long before the lockdowns were announced in the USA. The world is simply going to consume less stuff this year (except for toilet paper, apparently)


----------



## dirtyferret (May 9, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Even if they get paid for what they do + 10%, that still sounds like profit.


I don't know but I do know many of the hospitals are competing against each other and raising prices.  In late March several major hospitals reached out to us to get them face masks (we have no prior relationship with them).  We just got them imported last week at 4x the cost of our December 2019 run.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 9, 2020)

I do understand the drop in demand for everything pretty much non Covid-19 related, it is exactly the same here, there are fears that Cancers, strokes and heart conditions are going un diagnosed because people are too scared to go to hospitals but the thought is that those patients will still be there at the point that infection rates become low and people may start to feel safer.  I think it is recognised though that it may not be the case so we have recently started segregating elective services away from Hospitals who are treating Covid-19 patients, I appreciate with private sector hospitals in the US that may be difficult though.  In my county (Worcestershire) which is mainly rural with a population of perhaps 800,000 we have 3 hospitals, only 2 of them (the biggest) are treating Covid-19 patients, the other one where my wife normally works is being set up for all elective stuff to make a start on those other patients by the end of this month.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 9, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Maybe the Government should cut that 20% to 5% or 10% then and maybe use the money to additionally support those most financially vulnerable.


They should cut COVID specific (including ventilation) to 0% and raise everything 10% so there's no incentive, whatsoever, to diagnose anything specific but still provide relief to them because they're seeing far fewer patients than they normally would and offset the additional PPE costs they're having to pay across the board.



dirtyferret said:


> You are allowed your opinion just not your own facts making your opinion factually inaccurate and insulting to the people who risk their lives (and have lost their lives) helping others fight this disease.  You also don't have stats from the time people died from covid19 yet there were no tests (thanks to our incompetent administration) to confirm the disease.


About half of my family works in healthcare.  The point is all numbers (cases and deaths) in the USA are not reliable.  The degree is unknown.



dragontamer5788 said:


> My doctor neighbor are actually telling me that hospitals are losing money over this, because so many people have stopped getting elective / optional health care.


Exactly, they need help but this way inflates COVID-19 numbers because they gave financial incentive to do so.

My local hospital lost over $700k last month because electives are pretty much gone and people will let their health get much worse before going in.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 9, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> About half of my family works in healthcare.  The point is all numbers (cases and deaths) in the USA are not reliable.  The degree is unknown.



Obviously. Its ugly when you see how a sausage is made, but that doesn't change the fact that they're tasty. The numbers in the USA are the best the USA can get. I trust US's numbers more than many other countries. And months from now, the CDC will go over the numbers again and revise them (either upwards or downards) based on newly available facts.

Lets make a little bet. Do you believe that the US's numbers will be revised upwards, or downwards, in the next few months? Because I bet you the numbers will be revised upwards. The USA typically undercounts deaths. It undercounted for Hurricane Maria. It undercounted for opioids. It will undercount for COVID19. Lets set the date as... July, see whether the numbers are up or down at that point.

Hmmm... the bet needs to be more specific than that. Lets take the current CDC US Death Toll for the month of March of 3354 deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm). Do you expect this number to go up, or down, by July?

Note: 





> Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8).



Provisional Death Count for April is 42,129 deaths. Same question, we'll give it till August for CDC to revise the numbers. Do you think this number is going up, or down?


----------



## the54thvoid (May 9, 2020)

--------------------------------

That's a line. (I'm being creative). Please don't cross it with more baiting and arguing about numbers. This was created by the OP for stats - not subjective postulating about numbers. We know they'll change, so we can revisit it when we're all looking back saying, remember 2020?

Stick to known figures and stop arguing. Pretty please?


----------



## moproblems99 (May 9, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> --------------------------------
> 
> That's a line. (I'm being creative).



X.   X.  X.  X x x x x x
X. X.  X. X.  X x x x x x
--------------------------------
X x x   x x x x x x   x x
X x x x x x   x x x x x

These are all the times it has been crossed.

Edit:

I feel for you.  Perhaps you can just move the posts to the lounge Covid thread.  That way they are still visible and will be where they belong.  Also, people will get the notifications when they are quoted in that thread.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 9, 2020)

Personally, I like reply bans


----------



## Vayra86 (May 9, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> My doctor neighbor are actually telling me that hospitals are losing money over this, because so many people have stopped getting elective / optional health care.
> 
> Ex: I personally was going to get braces this year. But I'm delaying that until the COVID19 calms down a bit. And elective procedures are still "essential" in my area, but there's enough people panicking over the COVID19 that elective procedures have dropped dramatically.
> 
> ...



That and a lot of expertise and equipment is also quite likely just sitting there doing nothing. Lots of other essential treatment is postponed or cancelled until further notice, even over here. Your cancer treatment programme? Sorry, gotta wait a bit. That's definitely costing money. In addition, whole wings of hospitals have to be quarantined and this means the hospital's efficiency and logistics are also completely scrambled.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 9, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> And months from now, the CDC will go over the numbers again and revise them (either upwards or downards) based on newly available facts.


Upwards because CDC very rarely second guesses death certificates and diagnoses.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Do you expect this number to go up, or down, by July?





dragontamer5788 said:


> Do you think this number is going up, or down?


Up and up, because the game plan is controlled herd immunity and the statement above.

The more interesting question is COVID fatality rate.  I expect that to go down as testing goes up.


----------



## HTC (May 9, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> The more interesting question is COVID fatality rate.  I expect that to go down as testing goes up.


True, but it's very much impacted by the hospital's "level of swamped": most of USA hasn't had it but @ least NY has, which has had their numbers be much more severe than the rest of the country.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 9, 2020)

For Florida, our governor was harassed and slandered because he didn't institute a statewide lock down until April.  Yet, here we are the 3rd(?) Most populace state and yet barely in the top 10 of cases and deaths.




Edit:

We have the second oldest population, 3rd highest, yet we are only 32nd in the nation in deaths per 1 million people.  We have some of the laxest lockdown policies.  I don't believe the lock downs are really the driving force.


----------



## dirtyferret (May 9, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> For Florida, our governor was harassed and slandered because he didn't institute a statewide lock down until April.  Yet, here we are the 3rd(?) Most populace state and yet barely in the top 10 of cases and deaths.
> 
> View attachment 154515
> 
> ...


Florida is screwed.  Basically every other flight from metro NYC is going to one of Florida four major metro areas.  You won't be hit hard now but once NYC is set free it will go through Florida like crap through a goose and that nitwit governor won't help.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 9, 2020)

Domestic US politics is still politics. Stick to known virus figures and steer clear of blaming state politicians for things we don't get to make decisions on, nor have the briefings on which to make such decisions.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 9, 2020)

Spoiler: Quoted politics






			
				dirtyferret said:
			
		

> Florida is screwed.  Basically every other flight from metro NYC is going to one of Florida four major metro areas.  You won't be hit hard now but once NYC is set free it will go through Florida like crap through a goose and that nitwit governor won't help.








Spoiler: Politics



Well, I am fine with keeping the filth in New York.  No need to let it spread.  Which is exactly the reason these lockdowns are stupid.  They can't last as long as they will need to to have any meaningful effect.  It should be nothing more than controlling the 'hot spots'.  The rest of the world can play nice.



@the54thvoid , I tried.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 9, 2020)

HTC said:


> True, but it's very much impacted by the hospital's "level of swamped": most of USA hasn't had it but @ least NY has, which has had their numbers be much more severe than the rest of the country.


But remember NYC, 15-21% of their population has contracted SARS-CoV-2 in the span of just a few months.  If 70% is the threshold for ending the pandemic, they are 3.33x to 4.67x of the way there--likely closer than anywhere else in the world.  Even if they manage to slow the rate down by half which should be enough for the healthcare system to handle, they'll likely have herd immunity by the end of the year.


----------



## HTC (May 9, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> But remember NYC, 15-21% of their population has contracted in the span of just a few months.  If 70% is the threshold for ending the pandemic, they are 3.33x to 4.67x of the way there--likely closer than anywhere else in the world.  Even if they manage to slow the rate down by half which should be enough for the healthcare system to handle, they'll have herd immunity by the end of the year.


I was referring solely to the death rate.

As seen with Italy's Lombardy Region, the situation got bad enough where the doctors were forced to literally choose who to ventilate, and that dramatically inflated their region's death count: Italy's death COVID-19 rate is high but Lombardy's Region is much *much* higher that that.









						Italy: COVID deaths by region 2022 | Statista
					

As of November 2022, Sicily's COVID deaths are the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure overall.




					www.statista.com
				




Though i think it hasn't gotten to that point in NY state, the fact is NY state is by far the worst hit region in USA and, as such, the death rate in the area far surpasses USA's average:









						Total number of COVID deaths in the U.S. by state 2022 | Statista
					

As of November 2022, the state with the most COVID deaths had over 97,000 deaths.




					www.statista.com


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 9, 2020)

Deaths mean nothing without population to give it context:
Lombardy: 10,088,484 (147 deaths per 100k)
New York: 19,453,561 (135 deaths per 100k)
--New York City: 8,398,748 (43.2% of New York's population is in New York City)
----Kings (Brooklyn): 5902
----Richmond (Staten Island): 814
----Queens (Queens): 5717
----Bronx (The Bronx): 3784
----New York (Manhattan):  2412
----TOTAL: 18,629 (71.1% of deaths for the state of New York)‬


CDC has it's own data tracker...




__





						COVID Data Tracker
					

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.



					www.cdc.gov
				





Mexico is getting hammered:








						Hospitals treating COVID-19 in Mexican capital quickly filling up
					

Coronavirus patients were being turned away from hospitals in the Mexican capital on Saturday, as both public and private medical facilities quickly fill up and the number of new infections continues to rise.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## HTC (May 10, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 27581 confirmed infected --- 175 more
- 2549 recovered --- 50 more
- 1135 fatalities --- 9 more
- 274536 suspected cases --- 2093 more
- 517660 tests taken --- numbers weren't updated
- 2754 waiting for test results --- *201 less*
- 26344 under watch from authorities --- *323 less*
- 797 hospitalized --- *18 less*
- 112 in ICU --- *8 less*

Here's 2 more pics with the current demographics of infected and deaths:



 



As can be seen, only a single individual below 40 has died from COVID-19: dunno if he had other health problems besides COVID-19. A while back, i posted about a Portuguese teenager death that was linked to COVID-19: turns out it was acute meningitis instead.

Even 40 to 49 age bracket has seen fewer deaths than i'd expect but those really *REALLY* affected are of age 80+, which have just over 2/3 of all COVID-19 deaths (18.21% of those infected in that age group): a direct consequence of the serious infection rates across multiple retirement homes.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 10, 2020)

HTC said:


> Even 40 to 49 age bracket has seen fewer deaths than i'd expect but those really *REALLY* affected are of age 80+, which have just over 2/3 of all COVID-19 deaths (18.21% of those infected in that age group): a direct consequence of the serious infection rates across multiple retirement homes.


 DNR/DNI orders likely contribute.


----------



## HTC (May 10, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> DNR/DNI orders likely contribute.


To my knowledge, we don't use those here.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 10, 2020)

UK Update @ 10 May:


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 10, 2020)

Maryland Update, 10 May.









						Coronavirus - Maryland Department of Health
					

Visit the Maryland Department of Health's official resource for the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak.



					coronavirus.maryland.gov
				










Spoiler









Hospitalization numbers continue to decline, but number of cases + deaths are still up. Hospitalization numbers seem flat for over the past week. We've clearly plateaued from a hospital-resource perspective.

Number of cases/day seem very noisy, I don't think I can make a conclusion from that graph. It seems higher by my eyes, but also remember that Maryland has increased testing capacity.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 10, 2020)

We were similar for 2 weeks in terms of infection rates and hospitalisations with death rates still fairly high, often that is because those in hospital with serious cases may have got infected 4 weeks+ previously, we are now seeing after those 2 weeks the death rates falling by a more substantial amount.


----------



## HTC (May 11, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 27689 confirmed infected --- 108 more
- 2549 recovered --- no change
- 1144 fatalities --- 9 more
- 276153 suspected cases --- 1577 more
- 517660 tests taken --- numbers weren't updated again
- 2642 waiting for test results --- *112 less*
- 28307 under watch from authorities --- 1963 more
- 805 hospitalized --- 8 more
- 112 in ICU --- no change

2nd day in a row fatalities increased by less than 10.

Judging by these numbers, it appears our easing of restrictions isn't yet "being felt": i do expect it to "be felt" before the end of this week.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 11, 2020)

UK update as @ 11 May:




I think their fatality daily figures should be the other way around lol, 210 in hospitals and a total of 229 in all settings.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 11, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> UK update as @ 11 May:
> 
> View attachment 154771
> I think their fatality daily figures should be the other way around lol, 210 in hospitals and a total of 229 in all settings.



Zombie plague has begun, the dead are rising.

Those numbers are always low after the weekend. They get adjusted back up once the Sat/Sun count comes in.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 11, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Zombie plague has begun, the dead are rising.
> 
> Those numbers are always low after the weekend. They get adjusted back up once the Sat/Sun count comes in.


Yeah usually there is a catchup on Tues or Wed, although last week it was relatively minor compared to previous weeks, lets hope it's the same this week!


----------



## HTC (May 11, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> *Yeah usually there is a catchup on Tues or Wed*, although last week it was relatively minor compared to previous weeks, lets hope it's the same this week!


The same thing happens with Portugal's "tests taken".


----------



## Tomgang (May 11, 2020)

Update from Denmark.

Bad news i´m afraid after re open. Virus is out of control and we had to lock down again...just kiddiing guys, its going pretty good so far. Phase 2 of re open has officielly started today and RO has gone from 0.6 just before phase 1 re open to 0.9 at its peak and down again to 0.7 just before Phase 2 re open and that has yet again alowed to open up for more than exspected again.

We are fighting this pest, while we re open. Phase 1 whas a succes so far. Here Kitty Kitty, have some hand sanitizer you little pest.




Alright here are the numbers up til today. Dont be fooled by the numbers has raised a bit the last two days. That is because it has been weekgend and in the weekgends there are not as many declared recovered as there are on the normal work days. This has been the same repeat the last 3 weekgends so far. You can also see that in the numbers if you go back in the tabel below.

Date                                                                                        Hospitalized                                              Critical                                                     In respirator                                           dead

11/05198433353310/05196403352909/05194393252608/05205423552207/05199433951406/05209464150605/05228493950304/05252574549303/05243624648402/05232604447501/05249614446030/04255625045229/04267665044328/04284665043427/04310725542726/04285705642225/04290705641824/04320695840323/04319746139422/04324806838421/04335817237020/04336847236419/04319847335518/04317877634617/04350937433616/04353927232115/04362897530914/04380938029913/043881008728512/043961048527311/044081069026010/044011139524709/0443312010023708/0445312710321807/0447212710320306/0450313910818705/0450414410717904/0450714211216103/0451714611613902/0452515313812301/0453514612910431/035291451319030/035331371197729/034991311137228/034591211046527/03430109895226/0338694784125/0335087763424/0330169583223/0325455472422/0323246401321/0320642351320/031863732919/031533027618/0312924417/0382184
So yeah it´s going great in Denmark fighting this virus... so far. But now we have open up for even more, there are also a bigger chance now for a new out break. I hope and beg that dosent happen. But we have just seen a new out break happen in china, that is a reminder of what can happen if we are not careful.

Keep on fighting the virus. Keep your distance and wash your hands. It truly does make a difference.


----------



## HTC (May 12, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 27913 confirmed infected --- 224 more
- 3013 recovered --- 464 more
- 1163 fatalities --- 19 more
- 279933 suspected cases --- 3780 more
- 553855 tests taken --- 36195 more, after not being updated for 2 days
- 2719 waiting for test results --- 77 more
- 27054 under watch from authorities --- *1253 less*
- 709 hospitalized --- *96 less*
- 113 in ICU --- 1 more

Several notes:

- substantial jump in recovered
- more than double of yesterday's deaths 
- *HUGE* drop in hospitalized


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 12, 2020)

I too have noticed the weekend effect, and I think its part of Maryland's numbers.





Notice the big drop (roughly -100 or so) on Monday's stats. But today, Tuesday, the Hospitalized stats are +19.

You can see the "weekend drops" consistently. I think people would rather go to the hospital on weekdays, or something like that. Probably best to ignore Monday statistics as an outlier (which cover the weekend, and people are clearly behaving differently on weekends).


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 12, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> View attachment 154911 View attachment 154912
> 
> ...


I've been continuing to watch world wide numbers but have been paying special attention to the posts you have been making. Portugal's numbers are trending strongly to a recovering state. Italy, Spain and France have been trending strongly in the same direction. The US numbers in some area's are taking longer to show steady improvement, but in other areas, they are remarkable. I'm still not buying China's numbers, however as they are seemingly on par with S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan and other reporting Asian nations one has to at least recognize plausibility.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 12, 2020)

Weekly update on total deaths for the top 5 (bottom?).


USA - 83,121 -- 18.5% up ---> was 23%
UK - 32,692 -- 13.7% up ---> compare to 14%, two weeks ago after Govt. calculations amended
Italy - 30,911 --6.3% up ---> was 8%
France - 26,991 -- 6.7% up ---> was 8%
Spain - 26,920 -- 5% up ---> was 9%

One to watch:

Brazil - 12,062 (Bolsinaro has been ... colourful with his portrayal of the virus. Brazil now accounts for 68% of South American deaths).

And remember - none of these stats are reliable, but they're all we've got.


----------



## HTC (May 13, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 28132 confirmed infected --- 219 more
- 3182 recovered --- 169 more
- 1175 fatalities --- 12 more
- 282961 suspected cases --- 3028 more
- 566172 tests taken --- 12317 more
- 2686 waiting for test results --- *33 less*
- 26278 under watch from authorities --- *776 less*
- 692 hospitalized --- *17 less*
- 103 in ICU --- *10 less*

We don't yet appear to be seeing the effects of the easing of restrictions: dunno if that is good or bad.

It appears we've been conducting fewer tests lately: we had days with over 16K tests but today we did about 25% less then that. On the positive side, both hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped again.

Today marks the 103rd anniversary of Fátima's religious event, where many tens of thousands go to Fátima on pilgramage. However, and because of this Pandemic, all events have been cancelled to the general public with the Church opting to do a televised / Internet event instead, like the Pope did for Easter Celebrations, for obvious reasons. Unfortunately, some "idiots" (too good a word to describe these folks) berated the local Bishop for this decision ...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 13, 2020)

HTC said:


> We don't yet appear to be seeing the effects of the easing of restrictions: dunno if that is good or bad.



With a 2-week incubation period, I wouldn't expect eased restrictions to make things worse for ~2 weeks. IIRC, Portugal lifted restrictions on May 3rd?

Even then, if contract tracing is effective in your country, things won't get worse even after restrictions are lifted. There's more awareness of the virus, and more people doing what they can to stop it (Ex: Work from home / Telework where available). There's no way it would spread as quickly as it did in February. The question is if people can keep that magic "R" value below 1... especially with how long it takes to "react" to any changes. (again: long 2-week incubation periods)

------

My state, Maryland, is still in a worse boat than your *country*, despite having 60% of your population. We'll probably have to stay locked down longer, to bring the virus numbers down further before reopening. I know people were playing it a bit lax for Mother's day. So I'm expecting a "Mothers day bump" 2 weeks from now in my area.


----------



## HTC (May 13, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> With a 2-week incubation period, I wouldn't expect eased restrictions to make things worse for ~2 weeks. IIRC, *Portugal lifted restrictions on May 3rd?*
> 
> Even then, if contract tracing is effective in your country, things won't get worse even after restrictions are lifted. *There's more awareness of the virus, and more people doing what they can to stop it *(Ex: Work from home / Telework where available). There's no way it would spread as quickly as it did in February. The question is if people can keep that magic "R" value below 1... especially with how long it takes to "react" to any changes. (again: long 2-week incubation periods)
> 
> ...



May 4th, actually.

Judging by:


> Today marks the 103rd anniversary of Fátima's religious event, where many tens of thousands go to Fátima on pilgramage. However, and because of this Pandemic, all events have been cancelled to the general public with the Church opting to do a televised / Internet event instead, like the Pope did for Easter Celebrations, for obvious reasons. *Unfortunately, some "idiots" (too good a word to describe these folks) berated the local Bishop for this decision ...*



I'm not so sure ...


----------



## Vayra86 (May 13, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Up and up, because the game plan is controlled herd immunity and the statement above.



Is controlled herd immunity the actual, official game plan in the US??? Wow. The jury is already out on that one... you won't achieve it, and there is reinfection risk.

Its also an easy way to lose your lower class and unemployed, elderly... basically all those groups that cost money.

As far as I know, most countries adopt a strategy of reduced social traffic until a vaccine is ready.


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## rtwjunkie (May 13, 2020)

OK, trying for the 2nd time. I spent 10 minutes and deleted it all.

Louisiana numbers for May 13th (last update by me was 7 days ago):

32,662 cases (30,399 on May 6th)
2,315 deaths (2,094 May 6th)
1,194 hospitalized (1,465 on May 6th)
147 on ventilators (187 on May 6th)
237,904 tests have been conducted (194,672 on May 6th) -in a population of 4.6 million

22,608 Presumed recovered (20,316 on May 5th) confirmed this stat is only being updated weekly.

Based on 2 weeks of declining numbers from our extremely high infection rate that existed in April, Governor Edwards has decided that Louisiana will enter Phase 1 of the WH guidelines for reopening this Friday (May 15th).  Phase 1 is supposed to be 14 days per the guidelines. The Governor though, reasoned that it is supposed to be based on 14 days of data as well.  Therefore our Phase 1 will be 21 days, in order to make sure his team can get an actual 14 days of data.  Then they can decide to move forward to Phase 2 with expanded re-openings, stay the same, or reverse course.

ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/


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## HTC (May 14, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 28319 confirmed infected --- 187 more
- 3198 recovered --- 16 more
- 1184 fatalities --- 9 more
- 286285 suspected cases --- 3324 more
- 582341 tests taken --- 16169 more
- 2676 waiting for test results --- *10 less*
- 26082 under watch from authorities --- *196 less*
- 680 hospitalized --- *12 less*
- 108 in ICU --- 5 more



HTC said:


> It appears we've been conducting fewer tests lately: *we had days with over 16K tests but today we did about 25% less then that.*



Just "messing with me" ...


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## dragontamer5788 (May 14, 2020)

Governor Larry Hogan - Official Website for the Governor of Maryland
					

OFFICE OF GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN




					governor.maryland.gov
				




With Maryland's hospitalization numbers lower than it was 2 weeks ago (although there was an upward blip last week), Governor Hogan has decided to lift the stay-at-home order, and move onto the "safer at home" advisory starting this Friday. I'd personally be more comfortable if he chose the "blip" as the starting point of the 2-week decline... but I do agree that we have had hospitalizations decline for two weeks (at least... by some interpretation of the argument).

Covid Cases and Deaths continue upwards, despite the downward trend in hospitalizations. This makes me nervous of course.





"Safer at home" order is as follows: https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Gatherings-SIXTH-AMENDED-5.13.20.pdf

Summary:

* Churches must remain at 50% capacity or less (defined by local fire code), but are allowed to reopen.

* Retail stores must remain at 50% capacity or less (defined by local fire code), but are allowed to reopen.

* Manufacturing will be open.

* Face masks are required in all indoor locations.

* Schools remain closed.

* Food service remains carry-out and drive-through only. Main dining areas remain closed.

* Indoor fitness, Gyms, Senior centers, Theaters, "Pedestrian Concourses" of Malls, Massage / Spa / Tattoo parlors, various entertainment centers (bingo, bowling, pool alleys) are closed. A long list at the end, but you probably get the gist.


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## Tomgang (May 14, 2020)

Just as we have taken the first week of phase 2 re opening of Denmark. A very surprising news has come from danish government. That is that even throw we already have open up for more than expected, they will now open up for even more already and begin to plan that next week what to open. I seriously dit not see that coming. All throw I'm excited about it, I am also concerned as we have seen in Asien countries that there can happen a second outbreak. Also my concern is that they now recommend only one meter of distance from before 2 meter. Just don't hope government moving to fast for re opening. So I am both happy and excited while concerned at the same time about this.


Latest numbers for Denmark is:
Total cases: 10713
Recovered: 8805
Dead: 537
Active cases: 1371 the lowest number since the outbreak started in March.
Hospitalized: 147
Critical: 35
In respirator: 28
So compare numbers se my older post here: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/post-4262857


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## HTC (May 14, 2020)

Here's that chart with 13 countries infected cases i made a while back, with data up to yesterday (click for full picture):



Several comparisons can be made:

- Denmark VS South Korea as well as Portugal VS Sweden: both pairs have roughly the same number of infected cases but South Korea and Portugal have curves much more horizontal than Denmark and Sweden, respectively
- Germany and France have very similar curves but France edges out on top, therefore it's worse off than Germany, albeit slightly
- Russia and Brazil still "lead" with the worst curves of this chart, with Russia having the curve a bit worse than Brazil
- New Zealand's the REAL winner: their curve is almost like South Korea's but, because it's nearly 3 full horizontal lines less, this means they have nearly 1/8 of South Korea's cases


----------



## Tatty_One (May 14, 2020)

HTC said:


> Here's that chart with 13 countries infected cases i made a while back, with data up to yesterday (click for full picture):
> 
> View attachment 155184
> 
> ...


NZ should be the real winner to be fair, they have a high quality leader in charge of a country of around 4.7 million people spread out over a land mass of 268,000 square kilometres (more than 2.5 times the size of Portugal), population and people per square kilometre are key factors of infection rates (hence the UK for example, pretty much the most populated per square kilometre in Western Europe), also, obviously the more infected you get, the likelihood of more fatalities go with it sadly.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 14, 2020)

HTC said:


> We don't yet appear to be seeing the effects of the easing of restrictions: dunno if that is good or bad.



What if there are no effects from loosening restrictions?


----------



## the54thvoid (May 14, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> What if there are no effects from loosening restrictions?



Well, the thing for almost all places has followed the same trajectory. Initial surge, late lockdown and a prolonged flattening of the curve. Places that denied it was a problem - Brazil, Russia (at least initially) have had a huge surge of late - the epidemiological evidence is there to see. Places like New Zealand that enacted a lockdown before the first death have emerged relatively unscathed. What you have now, in places following a lockdown is the dilution of the virus among the human population. It will exist in pockets that can be quickly shut down again (for example, South Korea, where a nightclub area helped infect another 100 people (one club) after they relaxed things - that area is now in lockdown again.

There should be manageable outbreaks after the easing of restrictions - people will still die but the numbers wont be so high. It was never about stopping deaths; it was about reducing the flood of casualties. Some places were too late (look at Italy, Spain, New York, UK, etc). But where a low viral incidence is present, the loosening will see a lower level of impact.

If your point is: loosening and no effects means it was all hocum? then, that's a very shortsighted view (if thats the angle, and genuine apologies if it is not). But given how many people have died because of a hesitance to enact lockdown, it's clear the potential for far higher deaths. Once you've had a few hundred closely linked deaths, if not a couple of thousand, the virus will wreak havoc until its prevalence is vastly diminished - which is where many lockdown countries are now.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 14, 2020)

Testing kits and PPE (masks / gowns for nurses) are also far more available these days than even just one month ago. At a minimum, we can start to feel somewhat safe about opening back up, because our hospitals don't look like they'll be overwhelmed anymore.

This won't be over until the vaccine is available, but keeping the lockdown until 2022 is unfeasible. I see this "opening up" period as a time for governors to test what does work, and what doesn't work. As long as our testing framework is robust, we will be able to react within days of an outbreak (instead of weeks).


----------



## moproblems99 (May 14, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> If your point is: loosening and no effects means it was all hocum? then, that's a very shortsighted view (if thats the angle, and genuine apologies if it is not). But given how many people have died because of a hesitance to enact lockdown, it's clear the potential for far higher deaths. Once you've had a few hundred closely linked deaths, if not a couple of thousand, the virus will wreak havoc until its prevalence is vastly diminished - which is where many lockdown countries are now.



No, certainly not.  The virus is real and can kill. Everyone is just so convinced if you look at someone without protection Medusa herself would be jealous.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 14, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> No, certainly not.  The virus is real and can kill. Everyone is just so convinced if you look at someone without protection Medusa herself would be jealous.



I dont see that level of fear here, thankfully. I've seen people being respectful of space but otherwise, very little wearing of masks, a friendly 'hello' on my daily walk. No hysteria.


----------



## HTC (May 14, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> What if there are no effects from loosening restrictions?


I'm expecting a hike in cases @ 1st followed by a hike in hospitalized / ICU one to two weeks later: the million dollar question is how high will this hike be?

Supposedly, the incubation period is 5 to 14 days: we had our 11th day with ease of restrictions and, so far, no hike @ all apparently, which begs the question: is the incubation period longer than we thought?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 14, 2020)

HTC said:


> I'm expecting a hike in cases @ 1st followed by a hike in hospitalized / ICU one to two weeks later: the million dollar question is how high will this hike be?
> 
> Supposedly, the incubation period is 5 to 14 days: we had our 11th day with ease of restrictions and, so far, no hike @ all apparently, which begs the question: is the incubation period longer than we thought?











						Estimated Incubation Period of COVID-19 - American College of Cardiology
					

Venkatesh Locharla Murthy, MD, PHD, FACC




					www.acc.org
				






> Overall, 181 cases from outside Hubei province occurring before February 24, 2020, were analyzed. The majority of cases were from outside of mainland China (n = 108). Most had history of travel to Wuhan or contact with travelers from the region. The authors estimated the median incubation period to be 5.1 days (95% confidence interval, 4.5-5.8 days); 97.5% of people who were infected exhibited symptoms by 11.5 days (95% confidence interval, 8.2-15.6 days). Similar results were obtained in analysis looking only at fever onset.
> 
> 
> The authors then computed that if risk of exposure is low (1 in 10,000 exposed people) or medium (1 in 1,000 exposed people), 7 days of monitoring would be sufficient to identify >99% of symptomatic cases. However, if monitoring definitely infected people, monitoring durations >14 days could be required to capture >99% of symptomatic cases.



11 days for the 97.5% confidence before symptoms appear. I don't expect people to go out and party immediately. And if people are still using masks / other protective steps, the virus simply won't spread as quickly as it did before.

Telework should continue where possible, and minimizing travel / leisure in public places will help prevent the spread. And while we estimate "R0" to be a constant number from person to person, note that most of the R0 follows the "whale" model, where one or two "super-spreaders" grossly inflate the R0 value. The super-spreader in the Washington State choir infected roughly 53 people.

Stopping "super-spreading" events (10+ people in one meeting) will reduce the spread of the virus. As long as R remains at 1.0 or less, you won't gain any more cases... but instead enter a period of prolonged plateau.


----------



## HTC (May 15, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 28583 confirmed infected --- 264 more
- 3328 recovered --- 130 more
- 1190 fatalities --- 6 more
- 289309 suspected cases --- 3024 more
- 600061 tests taken --- 17720 more
- 2722 waiting for test results --- 46 more
- 25792 under watch from authorities --- *290 less*
- 673 hospitalized --- *7 less*
- 112 in ICU --- 4 more

The really good news is that we had our lowest daily death hike since March 22nd, and we also crossed the 600K tests taken mark.

Unfortunately, ICU number grew again despite hospitalizations number having dropped again: the change was slight though, for both numbers.


----------



## Tomgang (May 15, 2020)

Just a little update from Denmark. 

Numbers are still going down, but what is really good is that for the first time today, we had 0 dead to report since the outbreak in marts.


----------



## Hemmingstamp (May 15, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> No, certainly not.  The virus is real and can kill. Everyone is just so convinced if you look at someone without protection Medusa herself would be jealous.



Some people I know think the virus isn't real because they don't know anyone who has had it and recovered, or died from it.
I was sceptical until my sis-in-law told us yesterday that her friend's mum a couple of miles away had died from it recently.
We will carry on wearing PPE when out until a vaccine is found, regardless of the funny looks some give us.


----------



## mateonox (May 15, 2020)

these guys are really on the top of the traffic mount now.
sometimes I even ger paranoid with all this tracking thing.
I don't leave the house, though, but can definitely imagine the government watching us like a big brother -____-
what a black mirror we're living in


----------



## EarthDog (May 15, 2020)

HTC said:


> I'm expecting a hike in cases @ 1st followed by a hike in hospitalized / ICU one to two weeks later: the million dollar question is how high will this hike be?
> 
> Supposedly, the incubation period is 5 to 14 days: we had our 11th day with ease of restrictions and, so far, no hike @ all apparently, which begs the question: is the incubation period longer than we thought?


Remember, the flood gates didn't open...it's is an easing of restrictions. This time around at least some people are wearing ppe to protect each other and social distancing is still reccomended. Big difference from 6-8 weeks ago where there wasnt any social distancing or ppe.


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 15, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> View attachment 155286 View attachment 155287
> 
> ...


Am I reading right? 600,000 tests? That’s great!


----------



## HTC (May 15, 2020)

rtwjunkie said:


> Am I reading right? 600,000 tests? That’s great!


Correct: 58.8K per 1M population and number 15 in the world for this specific metric, currently.

To be honest, i'm as much surprised as you by that.


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 15, 2020)

HTC said:


> Correct: 58.8K per 1M population and number 15 in the world for this specific metric, currently.
> 
> To be honest, i'm as much surprised as you by that.


When I saw that I thought it was a very high per capita testing rate.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 15, 2020)

HTC said:


> I'm expecting a hike in cases @ 1st followed by a hike in hospitalized / ICU one to two weeks later: the million dollar question is how high will this hike be?
> 
> Supposedly, the incubation period is 5 to 14 days: we had our 11th day with ease of restrictions and, so far, no hike @ all apparently, which begs the question: is the incubation period longer than we thought?


You also have to remember that it depends on how much you eased in the first phase, the odds are (and expected) that as you move through phases there will be increased infections but as you said, hopefully within a manageable quantity but what is important is that at that point your Scientific and Viral experts should be able to see what element of a phased stage of easing caused the upsurge and respond to it smartly, if that is the case you wouldn't need to go back into a full lockdown, but just withdraw a particular easing, I mean, does anyone think that when millions go back to work increased infections will be low?

The point being, it is unlikely there will be any normality (as in everyone working that has a job and a relatively high degree of economic stability) before a vaccine, whether deliberate or as an effect, all most of us who are easing lockdowns are doing now is a balancing act between public health and the economy until such a time that a vaccine does become available (if)…….. and if it doesn't within a reasonable time frame (12-18 months, my guestimate.... no one else's) we in the end may have to go down the route of herd immunity through increased infections.


----------



## HTC (May 16, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> You also have to remember that it depends on how much you eased in the first phase,* the odds are (and expected) that as you move through phases there will be increased infections but as you said, hopefully within a manageable quantity but what is important is that at that point your Scientific and Viral experts should be able to see what element of a phased stage of easing caused the upsurge and respond to it smartly, if that is the case you wouldn't need to go back into a full lockdown, but just withdraw a particular easing,* I mean, does anyone think that when millions go back to work increased infections will be low?
> 
> *The point being, it is unlikely there will be any normality (as in everyone working that has a job and a relatively high degree of economic stability) before a vaccine, whether deliberate or as an effect, all most of us who are easing lockdowns are doing now is a balancing act between public health and the economy until such a time that a vaccine does become available (if)…….. and if it doesn't within a reasonable time frame (12-18 months, my guestimate.... no one else's) we in the end may have to go down the route of herd immunity through increased infections.*


Agreed, and agreed.

Unless either someone comes up with some sort of treatment to *seriously diminish* the effects this virus has on those that require hospitalization or a vaccine is discovered, normalcy will not return anytime soon, will all the consequences that it causes to the all countries' economies.

Some European countries are trying to resume football but i have serious reservations if it will work, despite no public in the stands and all the safety measures they came up with: all it takes is one infected forcing a team to quarantine and it all comes "crashing down". They should just end the current year without winners AND losers, and that should also be applied to other sports. OTOH, football player's contracts take a serious toll on the club's finances and it wouldn't surprise me to see even big clubs in serious financial trouble if this continues, which is why they are pushing to try and resume, despite playing behind closed doors: they are counting on the TV rights to give them a life line.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 16, 2020)

So here is some news from Georgia.  The state that decided to blaze its own trail.



> As of Friday, Georgia had more than 36,000 cases of coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University data. More than 1,500 people have died.
> 
> Since reopening late last month, Georgia hasn't seen a spike in coronavirus cases, Johns Hopkins said. But there also hasn't been a significant decrease in new case counts.
> 
> Georgia's rate of new cases has been trending unsteadily downward in recent days, per Johns Hopkins. The state averaged 669 new cases a day over a seven-day period that ended May 13, down about 6% from the previous week.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 16, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> So here is some news from Georgia.  The state that decided to blaze its own trail.



Here's Georgia's official stats: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Georgia has a population of 10.62 million, similar to Portugal and some other areas being discussed in this thread.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 16, 2020)

Saw a picture on Ag Day of where the main meat processors are.  Found similar map here:








						Map: COVID-19 meat plant closures
					

Meatpoultry.com will update this map throughout the COVID-19 outbreak.




					www.meatpoultry.com
				







Now look at where deaths are still rising:








						Where U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise
					

The states where the outbreak is growing fastest




					graphics.reuters.com
				






They kind of line up, don't they?  My county went from 8 cases to over 100 in a few weeks because of the meat processors in my county.  Just heard the ice cream processor has confirmed cases too, a county down.  And one more county down from them was the meat capital of the world 100 years ago and I'm pretty sure the critical care beds are full up there (or close to it).  Why?  Meat packers in that and surrounding counties.

Nebraska is falling for now but I don't expect it will stay that way.  Lots of meat packers there too and many are reporting cases.  As they test employees, they'll have similar case counts Iowa does...which inevitably translates into deaths a few weeks later.

Hope you'll love your meat because people around here are literally dying to keep it coming.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 16, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> View attachment 155403



That's an incomplete map. Virginia had at least 1 temporary plant closure.









						Tyson Foods closes Virginia Shore plant for 'deep cleaning'
					

Tyson Foods announced it will close its Temperanceville, Virginia plant Friday so the company can clean and sanitize the common areas over the weekend.



					www.delmarvanow.com
				




I feel like I heard that Perdue Farms's plant also closed. But I can't find any news confirmation of that. But news confirmation of at least the Tyson Foods plant temporarily closing due to COVID19.

--------

What's going on, is that food is an "essential service", which must remain open in the US lockdown. As such, any food processing plant continues to operate throughout the pandemic. Its not just meat plants however, grocery stores, paramedics, police officers, etc. etc. seem to be harder hit by the pandemic, because they're all "essential" and have to keep going to work throughout this situation.

Meat processing is unique in that many people are shoulder-to-shoulder for hours, which may cause the virus to spread more quickly.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 16, 2020)

^^ Food is essential but mass industrialised processes to procure cheaper meat are far from sanitary or ethical. It all comes down to that 1st world problem of entitlement where the consumer demands a cut of meat for less and less. There's only one way to fill that demand - make giblets as though you're producing bottle tops. And those factories need a lot of low-paid workers to work the lines. Low paid often equals poorer, often equals worse health - which is a prelude to a Covid19 party.

Our modern world has made things too cheap to maintain with little regard for consequence.

I'm a meat-eater btw - this isn't a vegan spin, just a critique of modern industrialised food processing. Nuka Cola anyone?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 16, 2020)

I'm more than willing to discuss the politics of meat packing plants here in America. I'll try to keep it COVID19 related (unions and stuff may help, but its too far removed and off topic IMO).

The main thing IMO, is illegal immigrants who are too afraid to enter the healthcare system, out of fear for deportation. The Obama administration made hospitals a "safe space", and commanded ICE agents that capturing immigrants from hospitals was unacceptable. Trump has reversed the policy. And under this administration, illegal immigrants (many of whom work at these food processing plants, being exploited for cheap labor) are now too afraid to enter a hospital and get tested for COVID19.

Its a confluence of disasters frankly. The illegal immigration issue has transformed into a public health crisis, as a portion of the (I admit... illegal) workforce suddenly is too afraid to get healthcare (for fear of deportation). There's an entire group of invisible, undetected COVID19 cases running around those parts of the country. We can't count them if they are too afraid to come to the hospital.

--------------

As far as "consume less meat". I can agree with that. But even if I cut my own meat consumption to nil, it won't change those factories. Too many of my neighbors will continue to eat meat. I do try to have more veggies than others, and meat is something I do my best to never waste. An animal died so that I could have the meat after all, the least I could do is ensure I eat all of it.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 16, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> That's an incomplete map. Virginia had at least 1 temporary plant closure.


That it is, but it shows where they are concentrated.

There's Tyson, Perdue, and Smithfield plants around here that have been in various states of opening and closing.  One for sure (the one that had an outbreak in my county) isn't on that map either but it's a cluster of many others so it's effectively represented.


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 16, 2020)

The map ignores the poultry industry which is just as bad as the beef industry for unhealthy working conditions. Next door Mississippi is filled with chicken plants, with Tyson, and at least 3 Sanderson Farms.


----------



## HTC (May 16, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 28810 confirmed infected --- 227 more
- 3822 recovered --- 494 more
- 1203 fatalities --- 13 more
- 292249 suspected cases --- 2940 more
- 600061 tests taken --- no change
- 2940 waiting for test results --- 218 more
- 25419 under watch from authorities --- *373 less*
- 657 hospitalized --- *16 less*
- 115 in ICU --- 3 more

The biggest news of the day in the substantial increase in recovered. Hospitalized continues it's dropping tendency but ICU rose again, slightly.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 16, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> ^^ Food is essential but mass industrialised processes to procure cheaper meat are far from sanitary or ethical. It all comes down to that 1st world problem of entitlement where the consumer demands a cut of meat for less and less. There's only one way to fill that demand - make giblets as though you're producing bottle tops. And those factories need a lot of low-paid workers to work the lines. Low paid often equals poorer, often equals worse health - which is a prelude to a Covid19 party.
> 
> Our modern world has made things too cheap to maintain with little regard for consequence.
> 
> I'm a meat-eater btw - this isn't a vegan spin, just a critique of modern industrialised food processing. Nuka Cola anyone?



QFT... yet another conversation we are not having at large... we only get hardliners saying don't ever do again or go all the way and BBQ every day  Strangely familiar to other topics.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 16, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The main thing IMO, is illegal immigrants who are too afraid to enter the healthcare system, out of fear for deportation.



To be honest, that extends throughout agriculture or the entire food supply.  Might be a good a idea for to put that into a prepared checklist next time.



dragontamer5788 said:


> As far as "consume less meat". I can agree with that. But even if I cut my own meat consumption to nil, it won't change those factories. Too many of my neighbors will continue to eat meat. I do try to have more veggies than others, and meat is something I do my best to never waste. An animal died so that I could have the meat after all, the least I could do is ensure I eat all of it.



My sentiments exactly.  There is no wasted meat in this house.  Any accidents are cleaned up by the dogs.


----------



## HTC (May 16, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> *The main thing IMO, is illegal immigrants who are too afraid to enter the healthcare system, out of fear for deportation. *The Obama administration made hospitals a "safe space", and commanded ICE agents that capturing immigrants from hospitals was unacceptable. Trump has reversed the policy. And under this administration, *illegal immigrants (many of whom work at these food processing plants, being exploited for cheap labor) are now too afraid to enter a hospital and get tested for COVID19.*


That's a recipe for disaster.

EDIT

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 29036 confirmed infected --- 226 more
- 4636 recovered --- 814 more
- 1218 fatalities --- 15 more
- 294009 suspected cases --- 1760 more
- 618066 tests taken --- 18005 more
- 2704 waiting for test results --- *236 less*
- 25640 under watch from authorities --- 221 more
- 649 hospitalized --- *8 less*
- 108 in ICU --- *7 less*

Recovered jumped again: by over 20% this time.

Hospitalizations dropped again, slightly, and is now just shy of half it's highest point ever. ICU number also dropped but daily fatalities increased again.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 19, 2020)

Maryland update.





Tests have skyrocketed to 7000 tests/day, and the number of confirmed cases has skyrocketed with the testing. Hospitalization numbers slowly decline, including ICU-beds. Deaths and probable deaths seem to be decreasing.

It has only been a few days since the moving to "safer at home advisory". A large number of people remain furloughed and pseudo-locked down. We'll see if the reopening was gradual enough to stave off a rebound in a few weeks.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 19, 2020)

Usual Tuesday weekly update on total deaths (highest 5)


USA - 93,035 -- 12% up (was 18.5%)
UK - 35,341 -- 8% up (was13.7%) -- about time, frankly.
Italy - 32,169 -- 4% up (was 6.3%)
France - 26,991 -- 4% up (was 6.7%)
Spain - 26,920 -- 3% up (was 5%)

Remember Brazil?

Brazil - 17,509 -- 45% up

Deaths are the crack of the whip, so with the top 5 above all reducing significantly, that has very good bearing on live cases. And Brazil's numbers show the retarded outcomes when you take no action at government level at all. I believe regional lockdown's are happening but not mandated by Bolsinaro. Tragically, it is creeping closer to native populations.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 19, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I believe regional lockdown's are happening but not mandated by Bolsinaro. Tragically, it is creeping closer to native populations.



I read an article that cartels are actually instituting and enforcing lockdowns in their turf.  I imagine they don't want to lose their customers who may not be the healthiest.  Anyways, the article goes on to state that locals are now looking for leadership from the cartels and gaining favor from the people over the gov.  Interesting....


----------



## Tatty_One (May 19, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Usual Tuesday weekly update on total deaths (highest 5)
> 
> 
> USA - 93,035 -- 12% up (was 18.5%)
> ...


Russia in terms of infection were almost untouched until April, it's almost a vertical line since then and currently nearing 300,000 infected, death toll if accurate is relatively low but I am thinking that if that line continues to soar on that upward trend it can only bode badly, hopefully I am wrong.


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 20, 2020)

Louisiana numbers for May 20th (I guess I'm posting weekly updates now, since we are on the downward trend):

I have *BOLD*ed last week's numbers for comparison with the graphic.  

35,316 cases (*32,662* on May 13th)   ****Today there were only 278 new cases in the whole state, with only 48 in the former raging hotspot of New Orleans.
2,485 deaths (*2,315* May 13th)
931 hospitalized (*1,194* on May 13th)   ****Notable that the number hospitalized has finally fallen below 1,000
110 on ventilators (*147* on May 13th)
285,970 tests have been conducted (*237,904* on May 6th) -in a population of 4.6 million

26,249 Presumed recovered (*22,608* on May 13th) 






ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/


----------



## Tatty_One (May 20, 2020)

Not done the UK update for a while, was getting too frustrated with it all but here goes as of today 20th May...………...




In the last 10 days or so daily infections have reduced by almost 70%, testing is going up significantly and has tripled since late April, fatalities still fluctuate but as can be seen, are reduced considerably..... we are certainly not there yet, still in Phase 1 of Lockdown easing, this was very much small steps apart from 2-3 million people going back to work from the Construction and Manufacturing sectors.


----------



## HTC (May 22, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, last Saturday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 30200 confirmed infected --- 1164 more
- 7590 recovered --- 2954 more
- 1289 fatalities --- 71 more
- 306171 suspected cases --- 12162 more
- 689705 tests taken --- 71639 more
- 2257 waiting for test results --- *447 less*
- 26198 under watch from authorities --- 558 more
- 576 hospitalized --- *73 less*
- 84 in ICU --- *24 less*

Was without NET since early Sunday so i was unable to update until now: *NOTE* that all numbers are *6 days worth of updates*, which is why there's such an *abnormal rise / fall* VS daily numbers.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 22, 2020)

Georgians Alabamans love bars 








						America’s cautious comeback
					

Data from millions of smartphones tells us which parts of the country have reopened




					graphics.reuters.com


----------



## moproblems99 (May 22, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Georgians love bars
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The graphic looks like Alabama?


----------



## claes (May 22, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> The graphic looks like Alabama?


YOU TRYIN TO DRINK BRO GEORGIA'LL PUT YOU UNDER THE TABLE 'BAMA CANT KEEP UP #BULLDOGS #MORELIKEFALLINGTIDE


----------



## rtwjunkie (May 22, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> The graphic looks like Alabama?


You're right. Bars and several other categories show Alabama has the highest rise in traffic in the South.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 22, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> The graphic looks like Alabama?


Ha, yup.  I should get my eyes checked.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 22, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Russia in terms of infection were almost untouched until April, it's almost a vertical line since then and currently nearing 300,000 infected, death toll if accurate is relatively low but I am thinking that if that line continues to soar on that upward trend it can only bode badly, hopefully I am wrong.



They're poised to lose a few 100k over there, unfortunately... I reckon the response is similar to Brazil, with lots of local aid and very slow and inconsistent gov. response. There are going to be lots of uncounted deaths, too. Culture is also not light on smoking and drinking. One big advantage they do have is distance. It is likely to concentrate in large cities. That also probably means it will cap out at some point.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 23, 2020)

Russia I think has high testing rate per capita which is why they're detecting lots of infected but also seeing low mortality.









						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing
					

Here we show the share of reported tests returning a positive result – known as the positive rate.




					ourworldindata.org
				



1.03/1000 in Russia compared to 0.67/1000 in USA


----------



## HTC (May 23, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Russia I think has the high testing rate per capita which is why they're detecting lots of infected but also seeing low mortality.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


According to worldometer, Russia is currently #23 in the world, with 57563 tests per 1M people.

Compare that to Brazil that have a similar number of cases but with 3462 tests per 1M people, making it #122 in the world ...

As for the death rate, Germany also "started slow" and is now @ 8352 deaths: Russia's death toll will climb steeply: more so if their hospitals @ any point are overwhelmed. Not to mention we don't yet know if they are counting the deaths outside hospitals like in retirement homes which, as we know, seriously inflate the total death numbers.

That chart i made with infected cases in 13 countries, including Russia? Here's how it looks now, updated to May 22nd:



Though Russia still edges out Brazil in number of cases, Brazil is definitely the worst of the two.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 23, 2020)

Looking at the steep rise, and with Bolsinaro's hard-man attitude, I can see the Brazil death rate exceeding the EU numbers in a week or two. Of note, and OT, the Environment Minister is on tape suggesting that coronavirus was a good opportunity - with the press looking the other way - to simplify regulations in the Amazon. Absolute creeps.


----------



## HTC (May 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Looking at the steep rise, and with Bolsinaro's hard-man attitude, *I can see the Brazil death rate exceeding the EU numbers in a week or two.* Of note, and OT, the Environment Minister is on tape suggesting that coronavirus was a good opportunity - with the press looking the other way - to simplify regulations in the Amazon. Absolute creeps.


I'd say less than a week to surpass 30K deaths and 10 to 11 days to surpass UK's: Brazil's death toll numbers are on a rising trend while most of Europe's are in a lowering trend.

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 30471 confirmed infected --- 271 more
- 7705 recovered --- 115 more
- 1302 fatalities --- 13 more
- 308584 suspected cases --- 2413 more
- 689705 tests taken --- no change
- 2308 waiting for test results --- 51 more
- 26130 under watch from authorities --- *68 less*
- 550 hospitalized --- *26 less*
- 80 in ICU --- *4 less*

6th day of phase two re-opening, with no apparent higher numbers than before.


----------



## HTC (May 24, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 30623 confirmed infected --- 152 more
- 17549 recovered --- 9844 more
- 1316 fatalities --- 14 more
- 309966 suspected cases --- 1382 more
- 689705 tests taken --- no change again ...
- 2115 waiting for test results --- *193 less*
- 26328 under watch from authorities --- 198 more
- 536 hospitalized --- *14 less*
- 78 in ICU --- *2 less*

The *GREAT* news is that recovered *more than DOUBLED* today.

The not so great news is that our drug regulation entity (INFARMED) has prohibited *some* COVID-19 test kits created in Portugal that are and have already been used because there have been some irregularities discovered and it's now under investigation ...

EDIT

Turns out INFARMED's issue was bureaucratic in nature rather than something physically wrong with the test kits: was worried there were some false positive / negative cases reported due to this problem but that's not the case.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 25, 2020)

Tracking the outbreaks in Singapore:








						Anatomy of Singapore's outbreak
					

How the virus spread through migrant worker dormitories




					graphics.reuters.com
				



Workers (mostly construction) living in dormitories.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 25, 2020)

Everything points to the same thing - while this virus is around in any community, close proximity in enclosed spaces is like igniting coal dust. I've got no fears about being outside, or in well-spaced indoors areas but things like planes, trains and such......


----------



## Space Lynx (May 25, 2020)

I think we will achieve herd immunity by end of summer even without a vaccine, I am still not convinced me and many others I know didn't already have this in December and January seeing as how it spreads like wildfire. No one is giving out accurate anitbody tests yet, so there is really no way of knowing. But seeing as how vast vast majority of people are asymptomatic or light symptoms, and a new study out of Singapore today confirmed South Korea that at about 11 days after no symptoms even if covid 19 did return in a patient it was not spreadable, which indicates antibodies. 

So the question is pretty straight forward. When will get a antibody test that is very accurate? I think that test should be equally as important as a vaccine, if you already have the antibodies you don't need a vaccine, unless I am not understanding vaccines correctly.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 25, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> I think we will achieve herd immunity by end of summer even without a vaccine, I am still not convinced me and many others I know didn't already have this in December and January seeing as how it spreads like wildfire. No one is giving out accurate anitbody tests yet, so there is really no way of knowing. But seeing as how vast vast majority of people are asymptomatic or light symptoms, and a new study out of Singapore today confirmed South Korea that at about 11 days after no symptoms even if covid 19 did return in a patient it was not spreadable, which indicates antibodies.
> 
> So the question is pretty straight forward. When will get a antibody test that is very accurate? I think that test should be equally as important as a vaccine, if you already have the antibodies you don't need a vaccine, unless I am not understanding vaccines correctly.



UK has a rapid and effective antibody test. They're hoping to roll out imminently. But it's for medical staff first.

It's a finger-prick blood test (two companies working on it, Roche and Abbot?).


----------



## Space Lynx (May 25, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> UK has a rapid and effective antibody test. They're hoping to roll out imminently. But it's for medical staff first.



So it is just a patience game again then, very well, back to gaming and reading I go ^^


----------



## Tatty_One (May 25, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> I think we will achieve herd immunity by end of summer even without a vaccine, I am still not convinced me and many others I know didn't already have this in December and January seeing as how it spreads like wildfire. No one is giving out accurate anitbody tests yet, so there is really no way of knowing. But seeing as how vast vast majority of people are asymptomatic or light symptoms, and a new study out of Singapore today confirmed South Korea that at about 11 days after no symptoms even if covid 19 did return in a patient it was not spreadable, which indicates antibodies.
> 
> So the question is pretty straight forward. When will get a antibody test that is very accurate? I think that test should be equally as important as a vaccine, *if you already have the antibodies you don't need a vaccine, unless I am not understanding vaccines correctly.*


There is no information yet regarding how long "natural" immunity lasts which is why at this point in time herd immunity could be at best a temporary thing, there are good reasons why influenza vaccines are administered annually, if you as a nation choose to follow the herd immunity route then that is your choice but who would do that without strong evidence to support it including data on longevity, immune system recovery rates from infection etc?  After 3 failed attempts quality testing antibody kits we have one (two maybe) and tests are taking place, only for the last week or so, the US is starting it's testing program in around 10 days I think.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 25, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> who would do that without strong evidence to support it including data on longevity, immune system recovery rates from infection etc?



Sweden?


----------



## HTC (May 25, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 30788 confirmed infected --- 165 more
- 17822 recovered --- 273 more
- 1330 fatalities --- 14 more
- 311233 suspected cases --- 1267 more
- 689705 tests taken --- no change yet again ...
- 1899 waiting for test results --- *216 less*
- 26449 under watch from authorities --- 121 more
- 531 hospitalized --- *5 less*
- 72 in ICU --- *6 less*

Our biggest cause for concern is Lisbon, which has been seeing more than 50% of the country's new daily cases.

Here's a pic of our hospitalized (blue) and ICU (orange) numbers over time (click for full picture):


----------



## the54thvoid (May 25, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Sweden?



Sweden. Pop density of 23km2, compared with say the UK at approx. 260km2. Sweden, with no great central hub (such as London, New York, Madrid etc).

Also, as has been mentioned before, Swedes, in general, trust their governent and do as they are told, so they have observed social distancing etc. A fairly recent report suggested 9/10 Swedes are observing a social distancing model, most of the time, even on transport. But, even with all of that - they have the highest Scandinavian death rate (comparable for pop denisty and cultural ties).

So, yeah, Sweden with only 10 million population are doing their own thing. But consider NYC has a pop of over 8 million and you see the massive difference is denisty, and therefore, how you can approach such a virulent pathogen.

As others have said - it's all got to be in context. You live in a low pop density place with acres of space and no crush on public transport - it's far easier to use common sense and not a strict lockdown.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 25, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Sweden?


But they didn't lockdown in the first place but that was because of a small population rather than herd immunity, they have the population of New York or London with a land mass twice the size of UK, those scales don't make good conditions for herd immunity because by nature to get a herd you need an awful lot of infected people .........Brazil on the other hand took a similar approach but for very different reasons, they may eventually achieve herd immunity the way they are going, but here is the thing, if it takes them a year or 18 months to achieve it, they may find that all of those that caught the virus early in the Pandemic outbreak are no longer immune and that's the deal with a lack of Scientific evidence at this point in time.

Edit:  sorry didn't see the 54thVoid's response at the time I was writing this.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 25, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> But they didn't lockdown in the first place but that was because of a small population rather than herd immunity, they have the population of New York or London with a land mass twice the size of UK, those scales don't make good conditions for herd immunity because by nature to get a herd you need an awful lot of infected people .........Brazil on the other hand took a similar approach but for very different reasons, they may eventually achieve herd immunity the way they are going, but here is the thing, if it takes them a year or 18 months to achieve it, they may find that all of those that caught the virus early in the Pandemic outbreak are no longer immune and that's the deal with a lack of Scientific evidence at this point in time.
> 
> Edit:  sorry didn't see the 54thVoid's response at the time I was writing this.



Well, what we are finding is that opening up but using some basic hygiene and common sense seems to do a pretty good job.

Edit: And don't get me wrong, lock downs weren't such a bad thing while the world was figuring out how to manage this.  We have a pretty good idea on how to manage it and also a pretty good idea that lockdowns are not sustainable unless you run into problems like Italy and NYC.  Of course there are exceptions, in this case, Italy and NYC WERE the exceptions.  UK is close.

Hard to find a good stat sheet of pre and post reopenings.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 25, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Well, what we are finding is that opening up but using some basic hygiene and common sense seems to do a pretty good job.
> 
> Edit: And don't get me wrong, lock downs weren't such a bad thing while the world was figuring out how to manage this.  We have a pretty good idea on how to manage it and also a pretty good idea that lockdowns are not sustainable unless you run into problems like Italy and NYC.  Of course there are exceptions, in this case, Italy and NYC WERE the exceptions.  UK is close.
> 
> Hard to find a good stat sheet of pre and post reopenings.


We are coming up to 2 weeks at Phase 1 easing, at a guess 15 - 20% of the workforce are back in the workplace, infection rates have gone up but only marginally but it's early days, phase 2 would be due to start a week next Wednesday, the data should be in just before then to show infection rates due to the easing, my concern is that each phase opens up more significantly so even just a 5% increase in infections at phase 1 could translate into 15-20% in phase 2, I agree though, most countries seem to be managing it well currently but we will see, it's amazing to think in comparison to where we are now that in Mid February I was only 30 miles from your location...… how things have changed so quickly!


----------



## moproblems99 (May 25, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> how things have changed so quickly!



You ain't kidding there.  God forbid something like the Plague rises.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 25, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> You ain't kidding there.  God forbid something like the Plague rises.



The plague spreads through infected flea bites. A problem in the middle-ages, but modern hygiene has eradicated that method of transmission. COVID19 is the disease that poked a hole in our hygine habits. Simply standing and talking to someone within 6 feet of you is all you need to transmit the thing.

This isn't like the Plague, AIDS or Ebola which requires body fluid swapping. Just talking to your fellow friends is sufficient to spread invisible aerosols and make them start breathing it.

Another note: The plague has an incubation period of just 1 to 3 days, meaning 3 days of quarantine is sufficient to be safe. COVID19 has an incubation period of 5 to 14 days, meaning you need 2-weeks of quarantine to be (95%) sure of safety. 3-days of quarantine does jack diddly squat for COVID19, the disease is too slow moving, making quarantine periods way too long. Frankly, I'd rather have the plague going around. Its pretty obvious what to do to prevent the plague from spreading despite its higher mortality rate.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 25, 2020)

UK Update @ 25 May:


----------



## Space Lynx (May 25, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> There is no information yet regarding how long "natural" immunity lasts which is why at this point in time herd immunity could be at best a temporary thing, there are good reasons why influenza vaccines are administered annually, if you as a nation choose to follow the herd immunity route then that is your choice but who would do that without strong evidence to support it including data on longevity, immune system recovery rates from infection etc?  After 3 failed attempts quality testing antibody kits we have one (two maybe) and tests are taking place, only for the last week or so, the US is starting it's testing program in around 10 days I think.



This should still be easily measured, if the UK does indeed have a strong antibody test that is accurate, we simply keep testing the same antibody people once a week, if we did that in a few months we would know 100% that immunity at least lasts 3 months, but yeah we have to keep it up for as long as possible... something tells me that will not happen though.  I will just get the vaccine as soon as it becomes available. I have high blood pressure and I struggle to control it, even with medicine I can't get my bottom number to go from 90 to 80 like it should be. So yeah... I don't want this virus, lol

the antibody test is separate from regular test, just so everyone is on the same page. really i think we should stop testing for pos and instead move full force into antibody testing. you have to quarantine anyway, and vast majority are asymptomatic. we need actual antibody numbers and how long the antibodies last


----------



## Tatty_One (May 25, 2020)

I agree with most of what you have said, however if we stop the testing for infection you lose some of your herd because you are then only antibody testing the ones currently tested as positive if you get my drift.  As for antibody testing all those that have tested positive on a weekly basis, whilst it makes sound sense, in reality it would be really resource hungry, I mean as of today the infection rate in the USA is well over 1.6 million positive cases, in context, without even doing the standard tests that means doing around 10x the testing you are currently doing, it may be achievable on a monthly basis but that's still a big task, albeit I agree..... a worthwhile one.

Edit:  Just seen an article saying that the CDC now have a combined standard test along with the antibody test apparently.


----------



## xman2007 (May 25, 2020)

Can't believe that this is still a thing, this is the biggest swindle in modern history, a virus that is no more deadly than a common cold or influenza virus, has brought many countries to their knees and put millions of people out of work and decimated the small business market, it's the 2020 version of the Emperors new clothes, and we're all meant to adhere to social distancing and not leaving home meanwhile politicians are at it, police are at it, celebs dont give a flying feck, but hey let the sheeple stay at home like good little subjects and stay safe, people need to wake the F up


----------



## claes (May 25, 2020)

Yeah 100,000 dead in the US leading cause of death NBD


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 26, 2020)

Pretty sure it isn't.  Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.


----------



## HTC (May 26, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Well, what we are finding is that opening up but using some basic hygiene and common sense seems to do a pretty good job.
> 
> Edit: And don't get me wrong, lock downs weren't such a bad thing while the world was figuring out how to manage this.  *We have a pretty good idea on how to manage it and also a pretty good idea that lockdowns are not sustainable unless you run into problems like Italy and NYC.*  Of course there are exceptions, in this case, Italy and NYC WERE the exceptions.  UK is close.
> 
> Hard to find a good stat sheet of pre and post reopenings.


It's actually the other way around: the sooner a country mandates a lockdown, the smaller the consequences of it: all you have to do is look @ New Zealand, which had place some of the hardest lockdown measures in the world (except for China) and is already on track to reopen, having had only just over 1500 cases in the whole country.

By "waiting too long" to go for a lockdown, the more the virus has spread and the longer it will take for the measures to have a strong enough effect to enable a re-opening: evidence of this is Italy and Spain.

Here's my chart with 13 countries infected cases, including Sweden (click for full picture):



Sweden and Portugal have a similar population (Portugal has just over 100K people more, according to worldometer). Sweden had infected cases before Portugal but Portugal passed Sweden by March 23rd and had almost twice as many cases by April 2nd (nearly 10K VS over 5K). Yet, Sweden "caught up" to Portugal on May 14th and presently has just over 3K more cases.

Don't know their hospitalized rate but, according to worldometer, they have 304 serious / critical while Portugal has 72, not to mention their 4029 deaths VS Portugal's 1330. Also, Portugal's area is almost 5 times smaller than Sweden's meaning Portugal has bigger population density.


----------



## claes (May 26, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Pretty sure it isn't.  Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.


You are certainly right, and it's unlikely to become the largest cause of death in the US over a yearly average. That said, CV-19 deaths has surpassed all other deaths on some _days _in the US, which is a unique statistic when compared to other "developed" states.


----------



## moproblems99 (May 26, 2020)

HTC said:


> It's actually the other way around: the sooner a country mandates a lockdown



I'm not arguing the validity of lockdowns to figure things out.  I'm arguing that when decent mitigation strategies are available, they should be enacted.  That way, the opening can be more controlled instead of: "Oh shit, we are out of money, we need to get the economy back" and then just do a mad rush opening.  A few weeks ago, NY Governor was puzzled because 60+% percent of cases were people following lockdown orders.



HTC said:


> Sweden and Portugal have a similar population (Portugal has just over 100K people more, according to worldometer). Sweden had infected cases before Portugal but Portugal passed Sweden by March 23rd and had almost twice as many cases by April 2nd (nearly 10K VS over 5K). Yet, Sweden "caught up" to Portugal on May 14th and presently has just over 3K more cases.
> 
> Don't know their hospitalized rate but, according to worldometer, they have 304 serious / critical while Portugal has 72, not to mention their 4029 deaths VS Portugal's 1330. Also, Portugal's area is almost 5 times smaller than Sweden's meaning Portugal has bigger population density.



And that illustrates many people's points, Sweden took a vastly different approach with no lockdown and had basically the same outcome as Portugal.  Yes, yes, context, blah, blah. The lock down "worked", but was it required?


----------



## HTC (May 26, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Pretty sure it isn't.  Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and *COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month*.


According to Reuters's USA page, 58110 people died from COVID-19 between April 1st and April 30th in USA: death toll went from 4839 to 62949 during that period.


----------



## Caring1 (May 26, 2020)

HTC said:


> According to Reuters's USA page, 58110 people died from COVID-19 between April 1st and April 30th in USA: death toll went from 4839 to 62949 during that period.


That should say, 58,110 people that tested positive to Covid died ....
Cause of death may have been pre existing and exacerbated by Covid.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 26, 2020)

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
					

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.




					www.cdc.gov
				




That suggests only about 20,000 people died, at the worst, per week, of COVID-19.  The rest were typical causes of death.


----------



## HTC (May 26, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, there's a common sense way to try and prevent the spread, and there's the Belarus way:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Almost two months later:



They have a low number of deaths (204) but dunno how they are reporting. For example, do they count the deaths from retirement homes?

Dunno what measures they have in place, if any.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 26, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Pretty sure it isn't.  Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.



It would have been a lot lot higher than that without the quarantine and forced self-awareness of masks/cleanliness etc. Probably quadruple the deaths if not more. But since people were hit like a shockwave, they now take more precautions so the numbers were able to stay relatively low.


----------



## HTC (May 26, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 31007 confirmed infected --- 219 more
- 18096 recovered --- 274 more
- 1342 fatalities --- 12 more
- 313886 suspected cases --- 2663 more
- 689705 tests taken --- no change yet again ... *STILL* ...
- 1815 waiting for test results --- *84 less*
- 26392 under watch from authorities --- *57 less*
- 513 hospitalized --- *18 less*
- 71 in ICU --- *1 less*


----------



## the54thvoid (May 26, 2020)

Tuesday weekly update on total deaths (highest 5 + Brazil - 6th anyway).
Rounding is: < .5% down, >.5% up

USA - 100,371 -- 8% up (was 12%)                                      
UK - 37,048 -- 5% up (was 8%)                                 
Italy - 32,955 -- 2% up (was 4%)                                          
France - 28530 -- 6% up (was 4%)                                   
Spain - 27,117 --1% up (was 3%) -- technically, 0.007% up                                  

Brazil - 23,622 -- 35% up (was 45% up)   


Six weeks ago, New York accounted for half of the US death total. Now it's less than a third, so in  evolution of the spread, the brakes are well and truly on. I think from now on, it'll be a more gradual climb but it'll still climb.
France's figure was the only one of the top 6 to get a higher climb this week.
Brazil's rate has dropped but it's still on a crazy trajectory. But, in context, its got a huge population and a basket load of poverty.

It'll take another two weeks to see if the relaxation measures in the larger EU countries have any effect on deaths. If people use common sense and new cases are traced and tracked, it can be controlled.


----------



## HTC (May 27, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 31292 confirmed infected --- 285 more
- 18349 recovered --- 253 more
- 1356 fatalities --- 14 more
- 316364 suspected cases --- 2478 more
- 689705 tests taken --- no change yet again ... *STILL* ...
- 1886 waiting for test results --- 71 more
- 27141 under watch from authorities --- 749 more
- 510 hospitalized --- *3 less*
- 66 in ICU --- *5 less*

Of today's 285 new cases, 271 were in Great Lisbon and Tejo Valley areas: this is our current biggest headache regarding this virus, with a few hot spots detected which, though not big in numbers, still add up.

A news channel was reporting earlier that Portugal has conducted over 750K tests but i can't find that number anywhere in the official DGS site (Portuguese health site), which is why that number has, in the pics i've posted, remained the same for many days now.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 27, 2020)

Unfortunately, the Hospitalization numbers in Maryland have begun to rise for two days in a row.

May 15th was the "Phase 1 easing of lockdown" for most of Maryland. That marks today as day 12 after the lockdown has been lifted. I don't believe this is a good sign. I'm hoping this is a temporary blip, but given the correlation with the phase-1 easing, it is quite possible that Maryland opened up too quickly.


----------



## HTC (May 27, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> *Unfortunately, the Hospitalization numbers in Maryland have begun to rise for two days in a row.*
> 
> May 15th was the "Phase 1 easing of lockdown" for most of Maryland. That marks today as day 12 after the lockdown has been lifted. I don't believe this is a good sign. I'm hoping this is a temporary blip, but given the correlation with the phase-1 easing, it is quite possible that Maryland opened up too quickly.



2 days in a row doesn't mean much: if it were 4 or 5, then you'd have "a situation" on your hands.

Portugal eased restrictions on May 4th. Here's Portugal's hospitalizations (blue) and ICU (orange) numbers:





As you can see, we also had a few "blips" along the way, though we had them sooner than you, apparently.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 28, 2020)

HTC said:


> 2 days in a row doesn't mean much: if it were 4 or 5, then you'd have "a situation" on your hands.



That's true. But you gotta have 2 days in a row before you have 4 days in a row. We'll see on Friday where things go from here. Hopefully its a temporary blip.


----------



## HTC (May 28, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> That's true. But *you gotta have 2 days in a row before you have 4 days in a row*. We'll see on Friday where things go from here. *Hopefully its a temporary blip.*



You do have a point.

Hope so!

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 31596 confirmed infected --- 304 more
- 18637 recovered --- 288 more
- 1369 fatalities --- 13 more
- 318810 suspected cases --- 2446 more
- 778698 tests taken --- 88993 more but this is several days worth of tests taken
- 1310 waiting for test results --- *576 less*
- 27563 under watch from authorities --- 442 more
- 512 hospitalized --- 2 more
- 65 in ICU --- *1 less*

Portuguese health site messed up, having hospitalized and ICU numbers switched.

While most of the country is doing fairly well, Lisbon and Tejo River Valley is cause for concern because the vast majority of new cases are in this region: it has several small hot spots with infected cases, though none big in numbers, for now. They still add up, though 

They finally updated tests taken numbers, after several days without doing so. This is something that actually makes me proud because a small country like Portugal actually manages to be current #17 worldwide in tests taken per 1M people. To put this number in perspective, Portugal has just under 100K tests less taken than Brazil but Brazil has over 20 times our population, which is why we have over 74K tests per 1M people VS Brazil's 4.1K per 1M people, and we're ahead of countries like UK, Italy, Germany, Russia and Belgium, to name just a few.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 28, 2020)

So, the "2 days in a row" is as far as that blip got, with -4 hospitalized today. Not enough to reverse the blip, but not enough to continue it. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

On the other hand, the coronavirus.maryland.gov site is now reporting volume-tested over time and % positive. With a +16353 tests done yesterday (!!), Maryland's %positive rate has dropped to 12.5%. I did hear that some COVID19 testing centers opened up in my area (at currently closed amusement parks and fairgrounds). But I didn't realize that we've increased testing capacity so much.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 28, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Pretty sure it isn't.  Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.



That is with all the measures that were in place, and without a health care system that got overburdened. In many countries where they are, the numbers are very likely much higher.

There is no question that if you leave this unchecked, you will simply lose a good 5-9% of the world population, most notably elderly. That is a vast majority of everybody's parents and maybe grandparents we are talking about. Perhaps yours.

I think, the order of things here should be different when we consider such things.
First. You have a discussion in the public space about what the people prefer and in what measure. Right now, the motivation behind lockdown and re-opening is purely economical and healthcare based. Is that broad enough? What sacrifices are we willing to make, when are we willing to 'stop caring'? Those questions remain unanswered, and until we have those answers, we have, all, together supported and paid for a system that said every life was to be saved to our best ability.

That is the principle at work here and that is why these lockdowns were initiated. The _worldwide_ consensus is that health and safety are regarded as higher value than anything else (even if that is not available to every person, note). Its not strange either, because that is the basis for economic growth and prosperity; a healthy workforce. Turning around on that without careful deliberation is a pretty big thing, and to me reads as kneejerk response, or, the real panic of losing what you once had. I'm not saying you didn't think it through, but did you?

In my view, the inescapable reality here is that we will be in limbo for several years or until an effective treatment that is low cost and can be applied to large part of the population is available. And/or a vaccine can be widely distributed. Anything else, such as this talk of a 'new normal' where we avoid physical contact and keep social distancing, is just not normal and never will be. Society and all of its functions will be rendered economically broken for a loooong time. Everything we do now in the public space will be much more costly and not viable. You can find very creative solutions around that, but none of them will return a normal of any kind. So its either a harsh discussion on what sacrifices we want to make, or its just waiting it out with minimal physical contact and maximum distance - ie partial lockdown.

There are tons of ridiculous examples of this new normal too, as we are reopening over here, and a lot of them don't even seem to make sense. Its like fighting the obvious. If you release the crowds you will get crowds, its just that simple, and I don't think everyone is responsible or capable enough to recognize for themselves when they need to get their test and apply self quarantine. Heck, not even our own leaders were capable enough to see that. That seems to be our 'exit strategy'. Its gonna be bumpy for sure. And if its not, we have overestimated the threat after all, let's hope so...


----------



## Totally (May 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> In my view, the inescapable reality here is that we will be in limbo for several years or until an effective treatment that is low cost and can be applied to large part of the population is available. .



There is, unless you are in the at-risk population or with a pre-existing condition it's called bed rest. Ask me how I know.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> There is no question that if you leave this unchecked, you will simply lose a good 5-9% of the world population, most notably elderly.


In undeveloped parts of the world, sure.  In USA?  0.4% or less:








						The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%
					

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...




					reason.com


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> In undeveloped parts of the world, sure.  In USA?  0.4% or less:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Reason is a very biased source. Case in point, lets look at the table from the CDC page directly: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html





As you can see, the CDC scenarios in the table suggest anywhere from 0.2% to 1% death rates, depending on assumptions. The 0.4% rate is actually what the CDC expects is the "likely" scenario, but they include 1% fatality rates because its a possibility (since so many parameters of this disease remain unknown).

The 1% fatality rate implicitly assumes that hospitals will *NOT* be overrun. Italy had 8%+ death rates for example as their hospitals were overrun. This could happen if say... we run out of ventilators. Under a ventilator shortage, the 5% of people who need ventilators would die. True, nearly 0.5% to 1% of people will die no matter what you do with COVID19, but really think about how the hospitalization system works. Every ICU case is basically a life saved (and the hospitalization rate is a life somewhat saved: they may have not died from the disease, but the hospital visit almost certainly treated the person and made them feel better somewhat).

If that hospital system is overrun, the disease gets much much worse.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 29, 2020)

The problem is undercounting of asymptomatic cases.  Even with Italy's mess, it was 8% of those tested.  The more people you test, the more you find are asymptomatic or mild, the lower the fatality rate drops.


Hospitals?








						California hospitals struggle financially after preparing for COVID-19 surge that never came
					

As the novel coronavirus tore through Italy and then New York in March, California, anticipating a deadly surge in cases, ordered hospitals to shut down routine procedures and called in thousands of health care workers to help patients.




					www.reuters.com
				



"...preparing for a COVID-19 surge that never came..."


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> The problem is undercounting of asymptomatic cases. Even with Italy's mess, it was 8% of those tested. The more people you test, the more you find are asymptomatic or mild, the lower the fatality rate drops.



Italy's testing-per-capita is on-par with the USA's.



> Hospitals?



Do you recognize that you change subjects whenever your points aren't sticking?


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 29, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Italy's testing-per-capita is on-par with the USA's.


That doesn't really mean anything when you're testing the sick repeatedly and the not sick rarely.  Countries are inconsistent with who gets tested and how much they're tested.  Nevermind the fact the tests have accuracy problems.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Do you recognize that you change subjects whenever your points aren't sticking?


You asserted that hospitals are being overrun.  It maybe only happened in 2 or 3 cities out of hundreds.  The article is talking about the opposite actually happening: they are being overstaffed and underrun with cases.  Your assertion, for the vast majority of the United States anyway, is focusing on the <1% while the >99% are bleeding money/resources.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 29, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Do you recognize that you change subjects whenever your points aren't sticking?



Yeah, its annoying isn't it. Its a well known fact by now that densely populated areas get struck hard and the rest of the country scaled up based on that prognosis, so yes, you will find hospitals overstaffed in the countryside while around population hubs they get swamped. That is what you get when POTUS tells the states to figure everything out for themselves...

But its easier to focus on a misguided 'fact' than to face the truth. Happens a lot and not just with him - it is very human. Truths do not change for it though.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Yeah, its annoying isn't it. Its a well known fact by now that densely populated areas get struck hard and the rest of the country scaled up based on that prognosis, so yes, you will find hospitals overstaffed in the countryside while around population hubs they get swamped. That is what you get when POTUS tells the states to figure everything out for themselves...
> 
> But its easier to focus on a misguided 'fact' than to face the truth. Happens a lot and not just with him - it is very human. Truths do not change for it though.


Let me tell you a story.  A sleepy county of 20,000ish people had about 150 cases of COVID-19.  But they have a dirty little secret...they slaughter 17,250 pigs a day (3.5% of US pork production) for the greater good.  The company behind that tested all their staff for COVID-19 and discovered 555, or 22% of their workers, tested positive!  And then there was 702 cases in the county:



They never stopped working throughout the pandemic and they've had no reported deaths.  That's over 2.5% of their population and they haven't even begun testing the greater public!

I was in the town with the meatpacker a week ago.

Don't patronize me.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Let me tell you a story.  A sleepy town of 10,000ish people had about 150 cases of COVID-19.  But they have a dirty little secret...they slaughter 17,250 pigs a day for the greater good.  The company behind that tested all their staff for COVID-19 and discovered 555, or 22% of their workers, tested positive!  And then there was 702 cases in the county:
> View attachment 157072
> That's over 5% of their population and they haven't even begun testing the great public!
> 
> ...



And what conclusions do you draw from that? Help me understand your madness here. Isn't that a confirmation that you need to keep the lid on this?


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 29, 2020)

No, the only reason why it is particularly lethal is because of the fact it is novel.  You're looking at the fifth strain of known coronavirus to become the common cold.  The first hill is painful to climb but what we're doing to ourselves now is worse.

SARS-CoV-2 isn't the black plague.  It's time to move on and that means regulating local populations against local hospital capacity to handle it.


Anyway, derailed this thread enough.  Further discussion should be here:


			https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565


----------



## HTC (May 29, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 31946 confirmed infected --- 350 more
- 18911 recovered --- 274 more
- 1383 fatalities --- 14 more
- 321290 suspected cases --- 2840 more
- 778698 tests taken --- no change
- 1568 waiting for test results --- 258 more
- 27917 under watch from authorities --- 354 more
- 529 hospitalized --- 17 more
- 66 in ICU --- 1 more

This isn't looking good: the situation in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area is escalating, though slightly but *with consistency* and that isn't good @ all.

Compare the following, and pay close attention to "Lisbon", "Sintra" and "Loures" numbers, which are a snapshot from May 24th, yesterday and today, respectively:



 

 



Though there are areas with higher numbers, there's virtually no change in the other areas while the counties i mentioned have significant increases, when compared to daily new cases, country wide.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> I was in the town with the meatpacker a week ago.
> 
> Don't patronize me.



And now you're talking about meatpackers, *changing the subject again*. I'm not trying to be patronizing, but its not worth my time to omnislash your posts and do a point-by-point rebuttal when you're unable to even stick to one subject.

What do you even want to talk about? Hospitals? Meatpackers? Italy's death rate? I'm not going to discuss everything with you when its clear you just drop subjects whenever the facts on the ground become inconvenient. Literally every post of yours changes the subject this page.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 29, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> And now you're talking about meatpackers, *changing the subject again*.


Topics of conversation meander naturally. Everyone does it to one degree or another.


dragontamer5788 said:


> I'm not trying to be patronizing


It's coming off that way.


dragontamer5788 said:


> but its not worth my time to omnislash your posts and do a point-by-point rebuttal when you're unable to even stick to one subject.


Then let it go.


dragontamer5788 said:


> What do you even want to talk about? Hospitals? Meatpackers? Italy's death rate? I'm not going to discuss everything with you when its clear you just drop subjects whenever the facts on the ground become inconvenient. Literally every post of yours changes the subject this page.


Interestingly enough, he's actually trying to stay on topic. You are not. Let it go.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 29, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> In undeveloped parts of the world, sure.  In USA?  0.4% or less:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Using your own source material, it's misleading to use a blanket figure of 0.4%.

From the article you linked:



> If you focus on hard-hit areas such as New York and New Jersey, *an IFR between 0.2 and 0.3 percent, as suggested by the CDC's current best estimate, seems improbably low*. "While most of these numbers are reasonable, the mortality rates shade far too low," University of Washington biologist Carl Bergstrom told CNN. "Estimates of the numbers infected in places like NYC are way out of line with these estimates."
> 
> ​But the CDC's estimate looks more reasonable when compared to the results of antibody studies in Miami-Dade County, Santa Clara County, Los Angeles County, and Boise, Idaho—places that so far have had markedly different experiences with COVID-19. *We need to consider the likelihood that these divergent results reflect not just methodological issues but actual differences in the epidemic's impact—differences that can help inform the policies for dealing with it.*



The US is too big to consider as one country (in the sense of this pandemic). It's a whole bunch of very different places. Each state needs it's own methods. 0.4% doesn't wash with some states and no matter how much people want to blame governers for decisions, hindsight's a wonderful thing. Remember, the leaders of nations (yours and mine) were both saying early on how it wasn't a problem. That's leaders, and they're meant to lead.



> “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”



That approach was taken by almost everybody apart from a few outliers (those that enacted immediate and strict track & trace, or those who went further with quarantine). So this isn't a Trump thing, so many world leaders had the same nonchalant approach. 

But let's not massage numbers by quoting the lowest mortality rate that can't be applied to a populace dense area. The care home deaths are prevalent in all countries with high covid-19 cases. Florida made a wise decision but that was the exception (unfortunately), not the rule. Again, hindsight.


----------



## Totally (May 29, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> That approach was taken by almost everybody apart from a few outliers (those that enacted immediate and strict track & trace, or those who went further with quarantine). So this isn't a Trump thing, so many world leaders had the same nonchalant approach.



and many still do even in the thick of it *looking at Brazil*


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 29, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> So this isn't a Trump thing, so many world leaders had the same nonchalant approach.


Let's be fair, no one could have reasonably expected this situation.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 30, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Let's be fair, no one could have reasonably expected this situation.



Whataboutism and "both sides-isms" are incredibly weak points to make in light of the literal protesters who still haven't gotten the message: https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020...c-erlich-during-coronavirus-press-conference/

This isn't about mistakes that people have made 5 months ago. This is about the protesters literally in the streets *today* who still think this whole thing is a hoax. These are my friends, my family, and coworkers. The "COVID19 is a hoax" viewpoint is incredibly common.



Totally said:


> and many still do even in the thick of it *looking at Brazil*



And indeed. Brazil is another good example of this.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 30, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Using your own source material, it's misleading to use a blanket figure of 0.4%.
> 
> From the article you linked:


First one is a comment buy a guy that questions CDCs numbers.
Second one is the author of the article pointing out that in places that haven't been hit hard have "reasonable" numbers.
Guess what happens when you average them?


----------



## the54thvoid (May 30, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> First one is a comment buy a guy that questions CDCs numbers.
> Second one is the author of the article pointing out that in places that haven't been hit hard have "reasonable" numbers.
> Guess what happens when you average them?




It's an expert pushing back, biologist Carl Bergstrom. 

Your language is telling. You say 'a guy' as if it's Joe Bloggs on the street. He's an expert in modeling and computer simulations.

Secondly, the source article states this 'best scenario' is one of five CDC scenarios. 

And then, averages? I clearly commented about making 'blanket' approaches when we've all discussed different demographics. So, the smiley face jibe wasn't necessary - in fact, it was quite childish. You clearly knew what I meant when I said 'blanket' approach. 

And from the links to the article:



> "The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. *They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19," the CDC says.*
> It says the numbers do not "reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions," which would be relevant for some of the agency's estimates -- such as how many infections stem from each case.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 30, 2020)

IFR (infection fatality rate) is for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.  Of course it's going to go higher and hot spots (like NYC) and lower in cold spots (like Whyoming).  I'm not sure what your point is especially when the numbers stand up (and informed by) when doing broad antibody tests.

My point is that the CDC lowered IFR from 0.8-0.9% in March to 0.2-0.3 in May.  That's a drop of three to four fold.


NYC likely has a whole lot more people with SARS-CoV-2 than testing implies.

I'm not even sure how a theoretical and evolutionary biologist qualifies in an expert in infectious disease modeling and virology which is literally CDC's day job and even they got it wrong by a huge margin.



the54thvoid said:


> And from the links to the article:


And why would it?  IFR is the death rate for the disease, i.e. SARS-CoV-2.  The more people that get it, the more people that die from it but also there's more people that don't die from it too: 99.7-99.8%.

This likely won't be the last time CDC adjusts IFR.  That's why they're giving best and worst case scenarios...because it's hopefully somewhere in between.


----------



## Ahhzz (May 30, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Let's be fair, no one could have reasonably expected this situation.


Ah, but someone knew we needed to be prepared for something exactly like this.










And I know the immediate reaction will be something to the effect of "Even a broken clock is right twice a day/once a day (for the military)". But let's face it. The previous administration was right. We should have had a plan and the framework of a response for this, but #45 has done everything it can to tear down anything the previous administration put in place, simple because of who did it.


----------



## HTC (May 30, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32203 confirmed infected --- 257 more
- 19186 recovered --- 275 more
- 1396 fatalities --- 13 more
- 323663 suspected cases --- 2373 more
- 795838 tests taken --- 17140 more
- 2134 waiting for test results --- 566 more
- 28183 under watch from authorities --- 266 more
- 514 hospitalized --- *15 less*
- 63 in ICU --- *3 less*

Our northern region continues to be the hardest hit by this virus and it used to have nearly 10K "advantage" in number of cases. However, and because of these small hotspots lately in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area, that "advantage" is now  less than 6K cases.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 30, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> View attachment 157233 View attachment 157234
> 
> ...



It seems as though Portugal's deaths are like clockwork - past five days - 12-14 deaths each day - which is of course very small.


----------



## HTC (May 30, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> It seems as though Portugal's deaths are like clockwork - past five days - 12-14 deaths each day - which is of course very small.


But it dropped below 10 in a few occasions, getting as low as 6. Problem is that, since then, it has also been up to 19.

Our death toll numbers aren't high when compared to other countries but, as can be seen, they do add up and do so to the point we're currently #13 in the world for deaths per 1M people with 137 deaths, *if you remove those countries / other that have less than 1M people* like Andorra and San Marino, for example, according to worldometer.

To put this number into perspective, Brazil currently has a lower death toll per 1M people than Portugal being #14 in the world with 132 deaths, though i expect Portugal to "lose" a place @ the expense of Brazil soon.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 30, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Ah, but someone knew we needed to be prepared for something exactly like this.



The real Nostradomas of this whole COVID19 thing is actually Bill Gates. https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready


----------



## moproblems99 (May 30, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Ah, but someone knew we needed to be prepared for something exactly like this.



Well, let us put the conspiracy hat on and say they were planning this to sabotage the next conservative president.  I mean, Fauci was absolutely sure this President was going to experience a pandemic.  Maybe because his Chinese funded lab was working on something?


----------



## FordGT90Concept (May 31, 2020)

Lots of outbreaks/deaths at UK "care homes"








						British nursing homes in crisis as deaths mount
					

At least 13,500 deaths linked to the novel coronavirus — nearly 1 in 3 — have occurred in British nursing and residential homes.




					graphics.reuters.com
				





> Deaths attributed to other causes have also risen sharply over the same period — so much so that the homes have 26,000 more deaths than is typical, a concept known as “excess deaths.”


----------



## HTC (May 31, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> *Lots of outbreaks/deaths at UK "care homes"*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It ain't solely in UK: in many countries, a great portion of those that died due to COVID-19 were in care homes.

For example, in Portugal's Azores archipelago, of the 15 deaths total by this virus thus far, 10 were in a *single care home*.  In Canada, nearly 8 every 10 deaths have been in care homes and similar proportions can be observed in many other countries, unfortunately.

EDIT

This post got merged with the previous one, so i placed the above "EDIT" to separate the two.

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32500 confirmed infected --- 297 more
- 19409 recovered --- 223 more
- 1410 fatalities --- 14 more
- 325026 suspected cases --- 1363 more
- 795838 tests taken --- no change
- 2016 waiting for test results --- *118 less*
- 27924 under watch from authorities --- *259 less*
- 474 hospitalized --- *40 less*
- 64 in ICU --- 1 more



HTC said:


> Our northern region continues to be the hardest hit by this virus and it used to have nearly 10K "advantage" in number of cases. However, and *because of these small hotspots lately in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area, that "advantage" is now  less than 6K cases*.


This is better illustrated with a couple pics from our "situation report" of May 20th and May 31st, respectively (click for full picture):

 

Our northern region is still and has always been the hardest hit but, as can be seen, it has seen an increase of just 272 infected cases in the span of 11 days. OTOH, Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region have had their infected cases number rise by 2454 in the same time frame: over 9 times higher.



HTC said:


> Our death toll numbers aren't high when compared to other countries but, as can be seen, they do add up and do so to the point we're currently #13 in the world for deaths per 1M people with 137 deaths, *if you remove those countries / other that have less than 1M people* like Andorra and San Marino, for example, according to worldometer.
> 
> To put this number into perspective, Brazil currently has a lower death toll per 1M people than Portugal being #14 in the world with 132 deaths, though i expect Portugal to "lose" a place @ the expense of Brazil soon.


Portugal has seen their deaths per 1M people rise to 138 while Brazil rose to 136, with both "keeping their places in the ranking". By tomorrow, i expect we'll have "swapped places" ..., as per worldometer (click for full picture):


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 31, 2020)

I was somewhat worried about that "upwards blip" for 2 days. But at this point, it seems like hospitalization numbers in Maryland have continued their decline.

It should be noted that tomorrow, all of Maryland will be entering phase 1 reopening (barber shops, etc. etc.). The areas which weren't hit hard entered phase1 2 weeks ago. With the continuous decline in COVID19 cases, it seems valid to continue to push the reopening.


----------



## HTC (Jun 1, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32700 confirmed infected --- 200 more
- 19552 recovered --- 143 more
- 1424 fatalities --- 14 more
- 326278 suspected cases --- 1252 more
- 812415 tests taken --- 16577 more
- 1720 waiting for test results --- *296 less* - according to "situation report"
- 27958 under watch from authorities --- 34 more
- 471 hospitalized --- *3 less*
- 64 in ICU --- no change



the54thvoid said:


> It seems as though Portugal's deaths are like clockwork - past five days - 12-14 deaths each day - which is of course very small.



I'd like a "slower clock", please ...


----------



## HTC (Jun 2, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32895 confirmed infected --- 195 more
- 19869 recovered --- 317 more
- 1436 fatalities --- 12 more
- 328873 suspected cases --- 2595 more
- 847181 tests taken --- 34766 more -  i *think* this is two days worth of tests but i'm not 100% sure
- 1866 waiting for test results --- 146 more
- 28064 under watch from authorities --- 106 more
- 432 hospitalized --- *39 less*
- 58 in ICU --- *6 less*

Several steps have been taken a few days ago to address the issue of the small hotspots we were having in the Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area: hopefully, they'll work out but it's too early to see the results.


----------



## HTC (Jun 3, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 33261 confirmed infected --- 366 more
- 20079 recovered --- 210 more
- 1447 fatalities --- 11 more
- 331094 suspected cases --- 2221 more
- 847181 tests taken --- no change
- 1944 waiting for test results --- 78 more
- 28093 under watch from authorities --- 29 more
- 428 hospitalized --- *4 less*
- 56 in ICU --- *2 less*


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 4, 2020)

I got sidetracked and forgot to log Tuesday's update. Figured I'd let it go anyway. Suffice to say, the top five are no longer the top five; Brazil's leapfrogged France and Spain, and will climb past Italy in a day or so.

On other news:

The expert in charge of Sweden's covid policy says they could have done things better.









						Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died
					

Anders Tegnell says more should have been done early on to stem coronavirus in Sweden.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




While he stills supports the approach, he says they should have adopted a middleground strategy, between what they did and what the rest of the world mostly did.

Out of interest, here's an antibody study (Stockholm is Sweden's capital and most populace city).













						These four charts show how devastating Sweden's no lockdown policy has been
					

Sweden’s decision to shun strict Covid-19 containment measures may have kept businesses open, but at what cost?




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Jun 4, 2020)

How can Stockholm be so low?  Yeah, London and New York have higher density but they actively tried to stop the spread where Sweden didn't.  The link makes no effort to explain that phenomena.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 4, 2020)

I think, as you and many have mentioned, it'll take quite some time before we can look back and get the answers. We're still in the midst of the pandemic, still learning about it.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 4, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> The expert in charge of Sweden's covid policy says they could have done things better.


I think, realistically, every nation can say that. This was a first go for everyone. Never before in history has the whole world come together on something like this problem. Many mistakes have been made. Many lessons have been learned. A lot of scientific data has been collected. These events will be remembered, studied and debated for many decades to come.


----------



## HTC (Jun 4, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 33592 confirmed infected --- 331 more
- 20323 recovered --- 244 more
- 1455 fatalities --- 8 more
- 333106 suspected cases --- 2012 more
- 847181 tests taken --- not updated ... again ...
- 1741 waiting for test results --- *203 less*
- 28685 under watch from authorities --- 592 more
- 445 hospitalized --- 17 more
- 58 in ICU --- 2 more

The only good news of the day is that fatalities has reached single digit for the 4th time since March, IIRC.



lexluthermiester said:


> I think, realistically, every nation can say that. This was a first go for everyone. Never before in history has the whole world come together on something like this problem. Many mistakes have been made. *Many lessons have been learned.* A lot of scientific data has been collected. *These events will be remembered, studied and debated for many decades to come.*



And many haven't ... still ...

Agree completely.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 4, 2020)

The UK entered it's 2nd Phase of easing on Monday of this week, some Primary school children returned to school, specifically the 4-6 year olds along with some aged 10-11.  This 2nd phase is split into 2 so the next part will be introduced on Monday 15th June, this will include a very few Secondary school children aged 14/15 only, the rest of school children are unlikely to return to school before September at the end of the summer break.  Also on 15th June, pretty much all retail will be back to work, in the main the only people not working at that point will be the extremely vulnerable and those workers predominantly from the Hospitality and Tourism sectors..... with the odd exceptions.  From next Monday 8th June, anyone entering the UK from oversees (excluding the Republic of Ireland) but including UK citizens who have managed to go abroad for essential reasons (or returning from a location that they were unable to repatriate from when our borders closed) will be required to quarantine on their entry into the UK for 14 days.

During the last 24 hours the UK has a further 1,805 people tested positive with a further 176 deaths in all settings.


----------



## HTC (Jun 5, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 33969 confirmed infected --- 377 more
- 20526 recovered --- 203 more
- 1465 fatalities --- 10 more
- 334923 suspected cases --- 1817 more
- 873998 tests taken --- 26817 more, but it's 2 days, not one
- 1636 waiting for test results --- *105 less*
- 28088 under watch from authorities --- *597 less*
- 475 hospitalized --- 30 more
- 64 in ICU --- 6 more

This doesn't look too good: the last time we had more news case than today was May 8th. Add to that the fact that, for the 2nd day in a row, both hospitalizations and ICU numbers increased, specially the former ... even though it's to be expected since we've eased the restrictions more ... gives me cause for concern ...

That chart i made a while back with infected cases from 13 countries? Here's how it looks with data up to yesterday (click for full picture):


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 5, 2020)

Very details statistics from Sweden here. Seems to be very regional in some case, going as far as some parts of the same city being barely affected, whereas other areas nearby having a much higher death toll.








						Geografiska skillnader i hur Covid19 drabbat Sverige
					

4,2 avlidna i Covid-19 per 10 000 invånare i landet som helhet. Men det finns stora geografiska skillnader runt om i landet.




					www.svt.se


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 5, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Very details statistics from Sweden here. Seems to be very regional in some case, going as far as some parts of the same city being barely affected, whereas other areas nearby having a much higher death toll.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There has been some research in the UK that suggests the more disadvantaged areas have been hit considerably worse than the more affluent ones, in some cases, in areas of similar population, triple the infection rates and more than double the fatalities..... dunno if that could be a factor in your example.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Jun 5, 2020)

Because they have to work for economic reasons...shelter in place not viable.  People with resources can afford to shelter in place even if the government tells them they don't have to.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 5, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> There has been some research in the UK that suggests the more disadvantaged areas have been hit considerably worse than the more affluent ones, in some cases, in areas of similar population, triple the infection rates and more than double the fatalities..... dunno if that could be a factor in your example.


Sure, that's true to a degree in Sweden too, but then there are places like this tiny place, with a population of less than 1,700 people, yet it has the highest death rate per 10,000 people in Sweden...
Sure, in total only 19 people have died, but that's over 1% of the population there, which is kind of insane, especially as it's not a densely populated area either.








						Älvkarleby - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Jun 6, 2020)

There's got to be something there like a slaughterhouse or nursing homes that's caused the outbreak.  I did some digging and can't find anything because resources describing that would be in Swedish.


----------



## Caring1 (Jun 6, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> There has been some research in the UK that suggests the more disadvantaged areas have been hit considerably worse than the more affluent ones, in some cases, in areas of similar population, triple the infection rates and more than double the fatalities..... dunno if that could be a factor in your example.


Lower income regions tend to be high density housing.
They are literally living on top of each other.


----------



## claes (Jun 6, 2020)

That and being poor in America means you are less likely to be insured, more likely to have lower quality hospitals, may find yourself in a food desert (no fresh food in 2+ miles) without a car, putting you at higher risk of diabetes, and are more likely to live in a multi-tenant unit (with others doing the same). Often these communities are largely minority, exposing them to other risks. In NYC police were disproportionately issuing Covid distancing tickets to black residents, despite photos of thousands of predominately white groups breaking rules on the lawns of Central and Prospect parks.

From there, many ended up in jail, and sometimes can’t post bail after arraignment, leaving them in jails longer, where social distancing is impossible and jails/prisons are largely considered the largest non-state locality hot spot in the country (Native American nations being second, who are also economically insecure, and are forced to close their casinos during the pandemic, a significant source of income for many communities; numbers on immigrant detention centers are less clear, but also a known hot spot).

Worse, in cities like NYC, most “essential workers” are minorities who live in those same communities, and sometimes undocumented. So the nurses, hospital staff, transit workers, cab drivers, grocery workers, restaurant workers, delivery drivers, potentially teachers in cities like
in the fall, etc, are also often those who are at greatest risk of infection.

Ah yes, and these communities sometimes face unemployment rates of 50% or higher (higher if counting real unemployment — adding those who haven’t looked for a job in 6+ months), with African Americans leading ethnicities in unemployment applications since February.

The results are devastating in the US, with African Americans dying at twice the rate o white Americans, where ethnicity has been reported.









						COVID-19 United States Cases by County - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

Johns Hopkins U.S. County Level COVID-19 Tracking Map




					coronavirus.jhu.edu
				












						The COVID Racial Data Tracker
					

The COVID-19 pandemic isn’t affecting all communities the same way. The COVID Racial Data Dashboard helps us track this inequity by publishing topline racial data compared with state demographic data.




					covidtracking.com
				











						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				












						What’s Behind the COVID-19 Racial Disparity?
					

Outrage is warranted. But outrage unaccompanied by analysis is a danger in itself.




					www.theatlantic.com
				












						Behind the Cover: Race and Covid-19 (Published 2020)
					

For this issue, a look at the deadly racial disparities of Covid-19 in America.




					www.google.com
				






			https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-race-ethnicity-04162020-1.pdf
		










						These N.Y.C. Neighborhoods Have the Highest Rates of Virus Deaths (Published 2020)
					

Race and income are the key factors that decide who dies from Covid-19 and who survives, city data shows.




					www.nytimes.com
				












						Black workers face two of the most lethal preexisting conditions for coronavirus—racism and economic inequality
					

“We’re all in this together” has become a rallying cry during the coronavirus pandemic. While it is true that COVID-19 has affected everyone in some way, the magnitude and nature of the impact has been anything but universal. Evidence to date suggests that black workers face much more economic...




					www.epi.org


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 6, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Because they have to work for economic reasons...shelter in place not viable.  People with resources can afford to shelter in place even if the government tells them they don't have to.


Not when the state is paying them.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 6, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> There's got to be something there like a slaughterhouse or nursing homes that's caused the outbreak.  I did some digging and can't find anything because resources describing that would be in Swedish.


Nursing home most likely, since that's where the highest death tolls have been in general in Sweden.



Caring1 said:


> Lower income regions tend to be high density housing.
> They are literally living on top of each other.


Yeah, no, this is BS. That might apply to where you live, but where I live, that's how most people live in the cities, as there's very limited space. Also see Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, in fact, most major cities in Asia. So please keep that opinion to yourself.


----------



## Caring1 (Jun 6, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Nursing home most likely, since that's where the highest death tolls have been in general in Sweden.
> 
> 
> Yeah, no, this is BS. That might apply to where you live, but where I live, that's how most people live in the cities, as there's very limited space. Also see Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, in fact, most major cities in Asia. So please keep that opinion to yourself.


Wow touchy.
You don't have to agree, but that doesn't make it bullshit OR wrong.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 6, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> Wow touchy.
> You don't have to agree, but that doesn't make it bullshit OR wrong.


Considering millions and millions of people live in high density housing, without being anything remotely close to poor, it's most definitely something very close to horse manure.
In fact, in most cities in Asia, a lot of the high-density housing the most expensive housing, as it's the housing closest to the city centre. 
In India, a lot of the high-density housing is new developments where only well off people can afford to live. 
Maybe widen your views of the world before making statements that apply to your local circumstances, but not in other parts of the world.


----------



## HTC (Jun 6, 2020)

Portugal's numbers *have NOT* been updated yet:


 

The only difference between these two pics is the hospitalized and ICU numbers, with *even the date and time on the report* being the same:

- 421 hospitalized --- *54 less*
- 58 in ICU --- *6 less*

My only guess is something got botched with the aggregation of the numbers and that's why this happened.

Still, this is the 1st time the daily report hasn't been published yet, with it being around 5 to 6 hours late already, @ the time i'm posting this.


----------



## claes (Jun 6, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Considering millions and millions of people live in high density housing, without being anything remotely close to poor, it's most definitely something very close to horse manure.
> In fact, in most cities in Asia, a lot of the high-density housing the most expensive housing, as it's the housing closest to the city centre.
> In India, a lot of the high-density housing is new developments where only well off people can afford to live.
> Maybe widen your views of the world before making statements that apply to your local circumstances, but not in other parts of the world.


All of this is true but forgets that across Asia and SE Asia South America and other regions with developed economies, that low-income people also live in high density housing but often in even greater density — single family unit with a single family vs single family unit with a family per room, multi-generational households, etc.

Of course this varies between region and culture (you’re actually less likely to see this kind of poverty across Europe than Asia), but both phenomena are universal in highly populated areas across the globe.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jun 6, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Ah, but someone knew we needed to be prepared for something exactly like this.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Not only that, Obama had his reasons for public healthcare as well, and they're all good ones - never mind the way Obamacare was eventually rolled out and where it is now 



TheLostSwede said:


> Considering millions and millions of people live in high density housing, without being anything remotely close to poor, it's most definitely something very close to horse manure.
> In fact, in most cities in Asia, a lot of the high-density housing the most expensive housing, as it's the housing closest to the city centre.
> In India, a lot of the high-density housing is new developments where only well off people can afford to live.
> Maybe widen your views of the world before making statements that apply to your local circumstances, but not in other parts of the world.



Maybe so, but the high density housing of upper class is very hygienic, while the lower classes' is not. Clean, running water for example, sanitation... take a look at India's slums for a second. Both high density, yes...

Its definitely a factor on top of the other ones. If the other conditions are good, high density housing has low impact. But if they're not, its a catalyst for infection spread. And let's not forget the internet. High incomes can order pretty much everything to their door. Low incomes go out to get it.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 6, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Maybe so, but the high density housing of upper class is very hygienic, while the lower classes' is not. Clean, running water for example, sanitation... take a look at India's slums for a second. Both high density, yes...
> 
> Its definitely a factor on top of the other ones. If the other conditions are good, high density housing has low impact. But if they're not, its a catalyst for infection spread. And let's not forget the internet. High incomes can order pretty much everything to their door. Low incomes go out to get it.


Well, I'm obviously not from India, but the slums I saw when I visited wasn't what I'd call high-density, as most of it was "huts/shacks" for a lack of a better word that were built wherever there was some free space (This excludes the poor sods that lived under the motorway bridges and overpasses). Yes, hygiene was terrible in those parts for sure, but it was far lower density than the new apartment complexes that were being built next door. 

I can't say I know of any apartment buildings in Taiwan that doesn't have clean, running water...
Not seen it anywhere else that I have travelled in Asia either for that matter. Yes, there are poor people in most, if not all Asian countries, but they don't seem to live in apartment buildings. They live in "huts/shacks" for the most part, be that on poles in the water, on a stretch of beach or in a dark dank corner in a city.

So no, high-density buildings is not what is the cause for the spread of this virus.

Poor information, poor hygiene and so on are much more likely reasons for the spread.

In fact, the reason some areas of Stockholm are as affected as they have been, has been the language barrier, as there's such a mix of people living there, many who don't speak Swedish or English and as such, they were the last to get information about the virus and many of them didn't seek medical help, as they weren't aware of why they were sick.

I do agree with you that low income people have to go out and buy their daily necessities, but a lot of them are also forced to go to work, as they can't live at all with their meagre incomes. I'm a bit pissed off with a very well off friend of mine in India, as he's been complaining that he can't go to the office, yet he lives in a walled off community with a huge garden in a huge house. They also have servants and security guards that can handle all outside interactions for them. Yet he's annoyed by the fact that he has to stay at home...


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## HTC (Jun 6, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated, @ last:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 34351 confirmed infected --- 382 more
- 20807 recovered --- 281 more
- 1474 fatalities --- 9 more
- 337333 suspected cases --- 2410 more
- 873998 tests taken --- not updated
- 1813 waiting for test results --- 177 more
- 29013 under watch from authorities --- 925 more
- 414 hospitalized --- *7 less*
- 57 in ICU --- *1 less*

Portugal has conducted mass testing in the identified hotspots that were inflating our daily numbers, such as those of 5 big construction companies in which all employees were tested: though not all the results are in, we found a significant number of infected people with no symptoms.



HTC said:


> Still, this is the 1st time the daily report hasn't been published yet, with it being *around 5 to 6 hours late already*, @ the time i'm posting this.



Turns out the problem had something to do with Microsoft and it didn't affect solely Portugal, it seems.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 6, 2020)

UK update @ 6 June


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Jun 6, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Not when the state is paying them.


They're not.  Talking countries like Brazil, India, Argentina, Mexico, Iraq, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, etc.


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## the54thvoid (Jun 6, 2020)

Concerning high density living. I believe the inference is: many people within similar family groups (or extended family) inhabiting the same, small proximal space. Not to be confused with luxury high rise living which is population dense in a building footprint. 

I think we can all agree, there is a vast difference between poverty and wealth with regard to how the density is 'experienced'. 

So, please, no more arguing about that. Ta.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Jun 7, 2020)

This is a few weeks old but still interesting:








						In nautical limbo
					

Cruise ship operators all over the world are docking their vessels with hundreds of crew on board.




					graphics.reuters.com
				



Parking lots for cruse ships.


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## the54thvoid (Jun 7, 2020)

Polite notice, I've deleted and edited some things. This about stats and maps for COVID.

Keep it on track please.

Back to theme....

Looks like it'll be more difficult to get the numbers from Brazil:









						Coronavirus: Hard-hit Brazil removes data amid rising death toll
					

The country will now only report numbers for the past 24 hours, no longer giving the cumulative data.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




I think a lot of countries that 'diminished' the virus will have similar outcomes. Yes, we know it's not a lethal threat but it's prevalance in the population makes it a big killer. Ignore at your peril.


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## HTC (Jun 7, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 34693 confirmed infected --- 342 more
- 20995 recovered --- 188 more
- 1479 fatalities --- 5 more
- 338500 suspected cases --- 1167 more
- 873998 tests taken --- not updated ... again ...
- 1352 waiting for test results --- *461 less*
- 29312 under watch from authorities --- 299 more
- 398 hospitalized --- *16 less*
- 58 in ICU --- 1 more

The great news of the day is that we had our daily lowest number of deaths since March 22nd.


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## Vayra86 (Jun 7, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Well, I'm obviously not from India, but the slums I saw when I visited wasn't what I'd call high-density, as most of it was "huts/shacks" for a lack of a better word that were built wherever there was some free space (This excludes the poor sods that lived under the motorway bridges and overpasses). Yes, hygiene was terrible in those parts for sure, but it was far lower density than the new apartment complexes that were being built next door.
> 
> I can't say I know of any apartment buildings in Taiwan that doesn't have clean, running water...
> Not seen it anywhere else that I have travelled in Asia either for that matter. Yes, there are poor people in most, if not all Asian countries, but they don't seem to live in apartment buildings. They live in "huts/shacks" for the most part, be that on poles in the water, on a stretch of beach or in a dark dank corner in a city.
> ...



The density argument mostly applies to the ability to maintain your lockdown, to what degree can you self isolate. That is also the main difference between urban areas and countryside: density. If you never catch a virus, you can't get ill from it and everything else becomes irrelevant. In any high density area your chances of getting are high, and then the poverty element starts to swing the hammer; can you stop working, can you get stuff to your door, can you avoid infecting others... they're all directly related to density. Similarly, slums are just fine, but when the shit hits the fan, there are no ways of stopping it and self isolation is impossible.

Its wrong to think about this in terms of the individual and trying to picture his day to day. This thing is asymptomatic. What matters is what you can do when you get infected.

Note that density, nor poor info, nor poor hygiene on their own are ANY sort of factor in infection risk. If you can always maintain your lockdown, your 'reasons' are as invalid as density is  No infection = no need for information, or distancing, or hygiene. This is about the big numbers and all factors play a varying role and when some of those stack up, shit gets worse.

Once a virus is out in the wild, density is the main factor for spread. Low density = much less chances for it to move to new hosts. The rest all comes after that. The fact that now both dense and not so dense areas, and irrespective of poverty get hit, is not really a fact you can use to counter that either... its about that first infection spread.


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## HTC (Jun 8, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 34885 confirmed infected --- 192 more
- 21156 recovered --- 161 more
- 1485 fatalities --- 6 more
- 339624 suspected cases --- 1124 more
- 873998 tests taken --- not updated ... *yet again* ...
- 1603 waiting for test results --- 251 more
- 28791 under watch from authorities --- *521 less*
- 366 hospitalized --- *32 less*
- 55 in ICU --- *3 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the 3rd day in a row: last time this happened was from March 21st to 23rd. Also a sizable decrease in hospitalized as well.


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## Tomgang (Jun 8, 2020)

Have not updated for a while, as I have gone throw an emotional period of bad mood and worried about my job situation as I have already been away from my real education that are car mechanic for half a year now and it's not over yet as more and more joins the unemployment line and just sink lower down the unemployment line for its no secret that those that have not been so long unemployed are more attractive and technically developing goes fast for cars, so you get fast behind the knowledge as well. It's really hard to find a job and getting one decline after another is really frustrating after all the work I have put in to it so far. Enough of the bad.

So after a little month, we have today taken on phase 3 of reopen Denmark. And we are still seeing numbers going down even after we started reopen back in Easter in April. So that is good so far. But now we are reopen some of my biggest concern about a return of the virus. That is fitness centers and swimming centers among some of those who open now in phase 3.

latest numbers are.
Total of infected: 11962
Total recovered: 10792
Total dead: 593
Total active cases: 577 (about a month ago, this number whas around 1300-1400 cases)
Hospitalized: 79
Critical condition: 16 where 7 of these people are in respirator.

So far numbers are going the right way and that is down. But what I also notice is that more and more people slacking on the corona rules like distance and hand shake. Just don't hope this will ruin everything we have accomplished so far.


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## Tatty_One (Jun 8, 2020)

UK update @ 8 June:


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 9, 2020)

Maryland drops below 1000 hospitalizations today.

Unfortunately, there was a very large protest that happened in the area on Saturday / Sunday. I think that brings a very large risk of a 2nd wave about 1 to 2 weeks from now. So I'll be keeping an eye on the numbers.


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## HTC (Jun 9, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 35306 confirmed infected --- 421 more
- 21339 recovered --- 161 more
- 1492 fatalities --- 7 more
- 342060 suspected cases --- 2436 more
- 940988 tests taken --- 66990 more but it's from 4 days of testing, *i think*
- 1618 waiting for test results --- 15 more
- 30176 under watch from authorities --- 1385 more
- 394 hospitalized --- 28 more
- 65 in ICU --- 10 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 4th day in a row: last time this happened was from March 20st to 23rd.

Unfortunately, and in not so good news, both hospitalized and ICU numbers had sizable increases, as did daily infected cases.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 9, 2020)

It seems in the UK being 65+ is not really a good idea, over 89% of all our Covid-19 deaths are in that age range   , for those of you that can stomach some UK Covid-19 stats as well as economic effects without it getting too heavy, this is an interesting read from the Governments "Office of National Statistics" …………...





__





						Coronavirus (COVID-19)  latest insights - Office for National Statistics
					

A roundup of the latest data and trends about the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources



					www.ons.gov.uk


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## HTC (Jun 9, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> *It seems in the UK being 65+ is not really a good idea, over 89% of all our Covid-19 deaths are in that age range*  , for those of you that can stomach some UK Covid-19 stats as well as economic effects without it getting too heavy, this is an interesting read from the Governments "Office of National Statistics" …………...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I can't separate 65+ because Portugal separates by 60-69 and 70-79 but, using 70+, 86,66% of all COVID-19 deaths recorded thus far in Portugal are of people in that age range:





And if we go by age 80+ instead of 70+, then the percentage is 67.63%.

Unfortunately, this is happening in most countries


----------



## claes (Jun 10, 2020)

I guess we (the world) have surpassed 400,000 deaths. 

Here is a fun timeline map. Looks like a lot of us who practiced distancing are still in the thick of the first wave of infections, having not looked at any studies to confirm.



			Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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## HTC (Jun 10, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 35600 confirmed infected --- 394 more
- 21742 recovered --- 403 more
- 1497 fatalities --- 5 more
- 344217 suspected cases --- 2436 more
- 940988 tests taken --- not updated
- 1724 waiting for test results --- 106 more
- 30398 under watch from authorities --- 222 more
- 417 hospitalized --- 23 more
- 70 in ICU --- 5 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 5th day in a row: last time this happened was from March 19th to 23rd, and that is the only good news of the day. Unfortunately, and like yesterday, both hospitalized and ICU numbers rose again. I'm hoping for it to be "a two day blip" but ... dunno ...

On a more "cosmetic note" whoever manages the Portuguese health site, managed to screw it up by swapping hospitalized and ICU numbers ... again ...


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 10, 2020)

UK reports on origins of it's infections.









						Coronavirus came to UK 'on at least 1,300 separate occasions'
					

There was no one 'patient zero' that started the UK epidemic, research shows.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 10, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> UK reports on origins of it's infections.



IIRC, New York also feels like most of its COVID19 cases came from Europe.

Even if the virus started in China, there's simply more European travel between NYC and Europe than NYC and China. So it makes sense that Europe would be the transmission vector.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 10, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> IIRC, New York also feels like most of its COVID19 cases came from Europe.
> 
> Even if the virus started in China, there's simply more European travel between NYC and Europe than NYC and China. So it makes sense that Europe would be the transmission vector.



My brother had a work colleague who was skiing in Italy earlier this year. He came back and tested positive for Covid-19 (went into voluntary isolation on return as the virus news was breaking in Italy). Damn those upper class snow-tourists!


----------



## HTC (Jun 10, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> My brother had a work colleague who was skiing in Italy earlier this year. He came back and tested positive for Covid-19 (went into voluntary isolation on return as the virus news was breaking in Italy). Damn those upper class snow-tourists!



Portugal *thinks* the exact same thing happened to us with Portuguese folks having a holiday in an Italian skying resort and, when they returned, they brought the virus with them.

But we also have had imported cases, though (click for full picture):



The vast majority from Spain, France and UK with "honorable mentions" for Switzerland and UAE.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jun 10, 2020)

Tomgang said:


> Have not updated for a while, as I have gone throw an emotional period of bad mood and worried about my job situation as I have already been away from my real education that are car mechanic for half a year now and it's not over yet as more and more joins the unemployment line and just sink lower down the unemployment line for its no secret that those that have not been so long unemployed are more attractive and technically developing goes fast for cars, so you get fast behind the knowledge as well. It's really hard to find a job and getting one decline after another is really frustrating after all the work I have put in to it so far. Enough of the bad.
> 
> So after a little month, we have today taken on phase 3 of reopen Denmark. And we are still seeing numbers going down even after we started reopen back in Easter in April. So that is good so far. But now we are reopen some of my biggest concern about a return of the virus. That is fitness centers and swimming centers among some of those who open now in phase 3.
> 
> ...



While I don't know of the job market over where you are... I think hoping for fast recovery is past us now. Maybe it could be refreshing to think of something wildly different to do - perhaps self-employed - with or without use of your skills. Countries and economies are soon going to have to reinvent themselves at least in part. I'd look in that direction, find a new growth market - car mechanics weren't exactly that anymore anyway. It can also perhaps make you feel a little better... why not let us brainstorm for you in some topic 

Hope you find something soon, in any case.

Stats for NL - while reopening has begun and many measures are loosened up earlier than planned... (we are 'opening' since June 1st)

New infections/day




Death count




Hospitalized




Also interesting: death by age group and male/female. Green is female







the54thvoid said:


> My brother had a work colleague who was skiing in Italy earlier this year. He came back and tested positive for Covid-19 (went into voluntary isolation on return as the virus news was breaking in Italy). Damn those upper class snow-tourists!



Guilty... I was in Nauders, border of N Italy and Austria. We basically were back in NL just prior to the lockdown... We did stay on the Austrian side and none of us were symptomatic... but yeah. Who knows... We definitely did dodge a bullet there, if we had been out skiing one week later... dayum.


----------



## claes (Jun 10, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> IIRC, New York also feels like most of its COVID19 cases came from Europe.
> 
> Even if the virus started in China, there's simply more European travel between NYC and Europe than NYC and China. So it makes sense that Europe would be the transmission vector.


I believe that’s correct, while IIRC the west coast outbreak came from China.

These are interesting:








						Coronavirus Mutations Map the Global Outbreak
					

The pandemic left a genetic trail of clues as it spread, allowing scientists to track the source and path of the virus




					www.wsj.com
				








__





						auspice
					






					nextstrain.org
				












						Virus Mutations Reveal How COVID-19 Really Spread
					

Globe-trotting humans were the culprits




					www.scientificamerican.com


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## Tomgang (Jun 10, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> While I don't know of the job market over where you are... I think hoping for fast recovery is past us now. Maybe it could be refreshing to think of something wildly different to do - perhaps self-employed - with or without use of your skills. Countries and economies are soon going to have to reinvent themselves at least in part. I'd look in that direction, find a new growth market - car mechanics weren't exactly that anymore anyway. It can also perhaps make you feel a little better... why not let us brainstorm for you in some topic
> 
> Hope you find something soon, in any case.
> 
> ...



I never believed in a V-shaped recovery from the beginning. We are more like in a u-shape at best. it will take 2-4 years before we are any near a normal marked again i believe. We first of all need to get a vaccine, before I have any hope of some normalizing. That alone is 1-2 years away and then recovery period as well.

I have considered taking a new education, economics wise it is not an option unfortunately. Else it is a good time to educate yourself. But I will take some courses while I am without a job, to try to keep me more up-to-date.

Self employed I don't think is wise now. Consumers are not happy spending money now, so open workshop is expensive and risky at the moment as I see it. I don't have the capital needed for it either. 

I have tried look for jobs outside my education, but so far no luck. I think I just have to wait a little longer and take those courses while I wait and see if the car market will be better in 3Q2020.


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## Caring1 (Jun 11, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Considering millions and millions of people live in high density housing, without being anything remotely close to poor, it's most definitely something very close to horse manure.
> In fact, in most cities in Asia, a lot of the high-density housing the most expensive housing, as it's the housing closest to the city centre.
> In India, a lot of the high-density housing is new developments where only well off people can afford to live.
> Maybe widen your views of the world before making statements that apply to your local circumstances, but not in other parts of the world.


You seem to have skipped a very relevant post!


the54thvoid said:


> Concerning high density living. I believe the inference is: many people within similar family groups (or extended family) inhabiting the same, small proximal space. Not to be confused with luxury high rise living which is population dense in a building footprint.
> 
> I think we can all agree, there is a vast difference between poverty and wealth with regard to how the density is 'experienced'.
> 
> So, please, no more arguing about that. Ta.


----------



## HTC (Jun 11, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 35910 confirmed infected --- 310 more
- 22002 recovered --- 260 more
- 1504 fatalities --- 7 more
- 345495 suspected cases --- 1278 more
- 954069 tests taken --- 13081 more
- 1562 waiting for test results --- *162 less*
- 30615 under watch from authorities --- 217 more
- 415 hospitalized --- *2 less*
- 70 in ICU --- no change

Single digit daily death toll for the 6th day in a row: last time this happened was from March 18th to 23rd. @ least hospitalized dropped very slightly while ICU remained the same, as opposed to the two previous days, but we crossed the grim mark of 1500 fatalities


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## HTC (Jun 12, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 36180 confirmed infected --- 270 more
- 22200 recovered --- 198 more
- 1505 fatalities --- 1 more
- 346703 suspected cases --- 1208 more
- 954069 tests taken --- 13081 more
- 1486 waiting for test results --- *76 less*
- 30779 under watch from authorities --- 164 more
- 440 hospitalized --- 25 more
- 73 in ICU --- 3 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 7th day in a row: this only happened once, from March 17th to 23rd. Also to note is today's death toll equals our lowest ever since March 19th. Unfortunately, our hospitalized and ICU numbers rose again and our Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region is STILL having the vast majority of our new daily infected cases, with just *over 90% of ALL of the country's daily new infected* (click for full picture):



Though our northern region is still the most affected area with the highest number of cases, Lisbon and Tejo River Valley used to have almost *10K LESS cases* but now that difference has shortened to just over 2.6K cases.

As we now know, there's a time lag between having symptoms and being hospitalized and yet another between hospitalized and fatalities, and this is what i fear we're experiencing now: on one hand, we've been having the fatalities of a "successful 1st stage re-opening" but on the other we're now experiencing the hospitalized / ICU numbers of a few small outbreaks in our Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region, which will likely have fatality consequences later on due to the time lag. "Fortunately", the vast majority of those newly infected have been young working people which are less prone to have serious complications so, hopefully, there will be less fatalities later on but we'll just have to wait and see. Ofc, this hinges on how many "more prone to complications" these new young infected passed the virus to ...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 12, 2020)

Its been about 6-days since the mass George Floyd protests in Maryland. No major spikes quite yet. By my personal model, people who got COVID19 from the protests would be getting sick today (but not necessarily going to the hospital yet). If there's an issue, a spike probably would start by Wednesday, but we'd need about 3 or 4 days before we knew if the spike were random chance or actually an upwards trend.

So another week or two, unfortunately, before we can make a conclusion. Of course, I'm no statistician or public health expert, but that's my opinion on these numbers anyway.


----------



## claes (Jun 12, 2020)

I think the consensus is 5-6 days of incubation on average, 2-14 at the extremes.


----------



## HTC (Jun 13, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 36463 confirmed infected --- 283 more
- 22438 recovered --- 238 more
- 1512 fatalities --- 7 more
- 348837 suspected cases --- 2134 more
- 975737 tests taken --- 21668 more, but i think this is from 2 days, not one
- 1516 waiting for test results --- 30 more
- 30655 under watch from authorities --- *124 less*
- 428 hospitalized --- *12 less*
- 77 in ICU --- 4 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 8th day in a row: this never happened before.


----------



## HTC (Jun 14, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 36690 confirmed infected --- 227 more
- 22669 recovered --- 231 more
- 1517 fatalities --- 5 more
- 349997 suspected cases --- 1160 more
- 975737 tests taken --- not updated
- 1385 waiting for test results --- *131 less*
- 30658 under watch from authorities --- 3 more
- 419 hospitalized --- *9 less*
- 73 in ICU --- *4 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the 9th day in a row: this never happened before.

Our Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region continues to be a cause of concern, as evidenced by the pics below(1st pic from May 29th and 2nd from today):



 



In this time frame, Lisbon had an increase of 528 cases, Loures had 454, Sintra had 740 and Amadora had 458 (Amadora is not in the pic but i consulted the situation report of that day to get the "before" number). Compare that to the increases of Vila Nova de Gaia with 41, Porto with 63, Matosinhos with 15, Braga with 32 and Gondomar with 10 and it's very clear that the northern region, though it's STILL the hardest hit area, has the situation much more in control than Lisbon and Tejo River region.


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## HTC (Jun 15, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 37036 confirmed infected --- 346 more
- 22852 recovered --- 183 more
- 1520 fatalities --- 3 more
- 351057 suspected cases --- 1060 more
- 975737 tests taken --- not updated ... again
- 1241 waiting for test results --- *144 less*
- 30703 under watch from authorities --- 45 more
- 431 hospitalized --- *9 less*
- 73 in ICU --- no change

Single digit daily death toll for the 10th day in a row: this never happened before.

EDIT

As a ... grim curiosity ... we have more fatalities than New Zealand has cases, despite having a bit under twice their population.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 15, 2020)

Hospitalizations continue to decline in Maryland, but with only -6 today, its not as much of a decline as other days. Maybe the protests did affect us (slowing down our downward trend), but maybe our downward trend has too much momentum right now to really be stopped.

A few more days before I call us safe from the protests. But the numbers are looking pretty good for now.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 15, 2020)

UK Update for Monday 15th June:
All retail re-opened today (England) in the 2nd part of our Phase 2 easing, High schools returned but only for 14/15 year olds and 17 year olds (exams next year), what we call Primary schools are into week 3 return but only for 4-6 year olds and 10/11 year olds. Hospitality and most of the tourism industries still out but possibly 4th July at phase 3 may see some return.  So I estimate around two thirds of the workforce are back to work, albeit a large proportion working from home because their children are not in school yet.





Edit:  Slightly worrying new research on antibodies post infection...………...



			Not all coronavirus patients develop Covid-19 antibodies, study finds


----------



## Lindatje (Jun 15, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> While I don't know of the job market over where you are... I think hoping for fast recovery is past us now. Maybe it could be refreshing to think of something wildly different to do - perhaps self-employed - with or without use of your skills. Countries and economies are soon going to have to reinvent themselves at least in part. I'd look in that direction, find a new growth market - car mechanics weren't exactly that anymore anyway. It can also perhaps make you feel a little better... why not let us brainstorm for you in some topic
> 
> Hope you find something soon, in any case.
> 
> ...


Also interesting is that far more women ~ 62,6% are infected than men but many more men end up in the hospital / ICU and or die. So men have a much higher risk.


			https://allecijfers.nl/images/nieuws/Geslacht_Corona_pati%C3%ABnten.svg


----------



## Ahhzz (Jun 15, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> Also interesting is that far more women ~ 67% are infected than men but many more men end up in the hospital / ICU and or die. So men have a much higher risk


Looking at the bigger picture like this is very important!


----------



## Lindatje (Jun 15, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Looking at the bigger picture like this is very important!





			https://allecijfers.nl/images/nieuws/Geslacht_Corona_pati%C3%ABnten.svg
		


It’s only in Dutch.

maybe some ppl have those numbers for there countries?


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 15, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> https://allecijfers.nl/images/nieuws/Geslacht_Corona_pati%C3%ABnten.svg
> 
> 
> 
> ...








						Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
					

Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex, age group, and jurisdiction of occurrence.



					data.cdc.gov
				




The raw CDC Numbers suggest US Men are dying at significantly higher rates than US Women. For the 55 to 64 age group, there were 7,558 male deaths, but only 3,881 female deaths between Feb 1 and June 10th this year.


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## HTC (Jun 16, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> https://allecijfers.nl/images/nieuws/Geslacht_Corona_pati%C3%ABnten.svg
> 
> 
> 
> ...





dragontamer5788 said:


> Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
> 
> 
> Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex, age group, and jurisdiction of occurrence.
> ...



I don't have access to numbers of hospitalization by gender but, here in Portugal, there are a lot more women infected than men:






OTOH, the fatalities don't reflect this disparity in infected numbers:





Men die more than women from 40+ years until 79 while women die more from 80+.


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## Tatty_One (Jun 16, 2020)

Lindatje said:


> https://allecijfers.nl/images/nieuws/Geslacht_Corona_pati%C3%ABnten.svg
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yep, it's all in the Biology, many people are not aware that men at every age have a lower life expectancy than women because they have a much weaker immune system, mainly for genetic and hormone production reasons, the ability of men to combat certain diseases including viruses is significantly reduced because of these various genetic factors and it is prevalent in all mammals, the female hormone Oestrogen (estrogen) has huge immune system positives where as the male hormone Testosterone has the opposite effect, an interesting and not too long a read in the link below, I am no biologist but it seems the be mostly relating to the X and Y chromosomes...............









						Why do more men die from coronavirus than women?
					

Is it genes, chromosomes, hormones, the immune sytem – or behaviour – that makes men more susceptible to the deadly disease?




					theconversation.com


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## HTC (Jun 16, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 37336 confirmed infected --- 300 more
- 23212 recovered --- 360 more
- 1522 fatalities --- 2 more
- 353178 suspected cases --- 2121 more
- 975737 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... STILL?
- 1316 waiting for test results --- 75 more
- 30810 under watch from authorities --- 107 more
- 423 hospitalized --- *8 less*
- 71 in ICU --- *2 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the *11th day in a row*: this never happened before.


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## Tatty_One (Jun 16, 2020)

It seems that a UK Research team from Oxford university have found an existing cheap Steroid treatment called* Dexamethasone* that reduces loss of life for the most serious cases of Covid-19 that require oxygen and/or a mechanical ventilator, I do recall the work they were doing and the call for patient volunteers a couple of months ago, estimates are up to a third fewer fatalities  



			'Major breakthrough' as UK scientists find £5 steroid cuts COVID-19 deaths
		


It's being rolled out to every hospital in the UK with immediate effect.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 16, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> It seems that a UK Research team from Oxford university have found an existing cheap Steroid treatment called* Dexamethasone* that reduces loss of life for the most serious cases of Covid-19 that require oxygen and/or a mechanical ventilator, I do recall the work they were doing and the call for patient volunteers a couple of months ago, estimates are up to a third fewer fatalities
> 
> 
> 
> ...











						Dexamethasone - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




It looks like its got some serious side effects. But anything is better than death. So it makes sense to give the drug to anyone on oxygen or ventilators (those who have the highest risk of death).

Given the huge list of side effects, its no "miracle drug". But this is still good news that the death rate can be reduced by so much.


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## Tatty_One (Jun 16, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Dexamethasone - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It has a lot of side effects, most drugs do to be fair however it's been in use by millions for a number of years all over the world and the most common side effects appear to be non life threatening, this may shed some further light...…….






						BNF is only available in the UK
					

The NICE British National Formulary (BNF) site is only available to users in the UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)




					bnf.nice.org.uk
				




Edit:  Not sure if everyone can access this link.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 16, 2020)

Now for something a bit different: I'm a fan of Hydrogen Peroxide. Unfortunately, there's a lot of quackery with regards to the good ol' H2O2 chemical (including idiots who are now drinking H2O2 for health reasons... erm... its still a poison ya know?).

It seems like the EPA is suggesting vaporized H2O2 treatments to extend the life of N95 masks. H2O2 is a poisonous chemical with a very interesting attribute: its so reactive that it naturally breaks down into the formula: 2H2O2 -> 2H2O + O2. So while its in H2O2 form, it kills bacteria, viruses, and fungus, but then an hour later it turns into H2O and O2 (just water and oxygen).



			https://www.safety.duke.edu/sites/default/files/N-95_VHP-Decon-Re-Use.pdf
		


With that being said, H2O2 vapor is dangerous stuff. It means that the H2O2 poison is now airborne and can get into your lungs. This technique is probably unavailable to the general public, but is proof that bacterial and viruses can be killed by this chemical.

------------

I guess if anyone wants something that really kills COVID19 (and lots of other stuff too), H2O2 is a pretty good cleaning solution. Its a bit less reactive than Chlorine Bleach (which will rust iron and other materials)... but H2O2 still whitens and dissolves a lot of dyes, so you still need to be careful around furniture and stuff. Always test to make sure H2O2 won't change the color before you use it on something.

H2O2 cleaners are Oxyclean (a powder that turns into H2O2 when dissolved in Water), Lysol "Power and Free" (Lysol is typically Benzalkonium chloride or alkyldimethylbenzylammonium chloride. But  "Power and Free" is the Hydrogen Peroxide based cleaner), and of course... your good ol brown container of pure Hydrogen Peroxide available for $1 at most drug stores. Lysol "Power and Free" is roughly  0.8% H2O2, so your 3% drug store H2O2 can be dilluted in a 3.5-to-1 ratio and still be an effective disinfectant or cleaner.

So yes, H2O2 has been proven to kill COVID19 and is less reactive than many other cleaning solutions. If anyone else is cleaning stuff on a regular basis, I do recommend you try it out. Be it in powder form (aka: Oxyclean) or in liquid form.

I've always been cleaning with 3% H2O2 or various H2O2 cleaners in various forms. But its good to see strong evidence that this chemical works on COVID19.

---------

On the other hand: pouring H2O2 into wounds and other "health" reasons is pure quackery. I highly suggest people don't do that. Its an effective poison and cleaner, but you really don't want that stuff going into your body.


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## HTC (Jun 17, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 37672 confirmed infected --- 336 more
- 23580 recovered --- 368 more
- 1523 fatalities --- 1 more
- 355207 suspected cases --- 2029 more
- 1006563 tests taken --- 30826 more
- 1347 waiting for test results --- 29 more
- 30289 under watch from authorities --- *521 less*
- 435 hospitalized --- 12 more
- 69 in ICU --- *2 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the *12th day in a row*: this never happened before.

We've crossed the 1M tests taken mark ... except that, according to Portuguese news channels, we've crossed that mar *@ least two days ago* ... which is in line with them NOT UPDATING that stat properly, like all the others stats ...


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 18, 2020)

Maryland continues its steady decline in all benchmarks. Phase 2 reopening is planned for Friday this week, as long as the numbers remain good. I think we're in a good spot.


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## Ahhzz (Jun 18, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 159407
> 
> Maryland continues its steady decline in all benchmarks. Phase 2 reopening is planned for Friday this week, as long as the numbers remain good. I think we're in a good spot.


Numbers are definitely leveling off, should make it much easier for hospitals to handle the volume and isolation needed to protect the other hospital patients. 
Have we seen any serious, relatively feasible numbers about how infectious this is? I know with this still way out of control, seeing serious numbers on likely infection rates is still way out off the horizon, just wondering if anyone is attempting a running "guesstimate"


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 18, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Numbers are definitely leveling off, should make it much easier for hospitals to handle the volume and isolation needed to protect the other hospital patients.
> Have we seen any serious, relatively feasible numbers about how infectious this is? I know with this still way out of control, seeing serious numbers on likely infection rates is still way out off the horizon, just wondering if anyone is attempting a running "guesstimate"



The "true infection" rate is highly dependent on human behavior. During a lockdown, the infection rate declines.

R0 is the base reproduction rate, which is the average number of people that will get infected per generation without any safeguards in place. There were many, many studies on this, with results anywhere from 2 to 6 or so (maybe broader).









						High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
					

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of SARS-CoV-2




					wwwnc.cdc.gov
				






> Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9).



You or I can perform a similar analysis using the mortality numbers. Lets assume that March 25th through April 10th deaths are representative of the R0 rate. (The lockdowns may have started in the USA, but the death rate is highly delayed, and would have been representative of the infections nearly a month earlier).









						United States: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile
					

United States: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?




					ourworldindata.org
				




From March 20 to March 25th, there were +651 deaths. (The people who died at this time were probably infected in Feburary)

From April 5th to April 10th, there were +8189 deaths.

So over the course of 16 days, the USA deaths grew by 1258%. Assuming an interval of ~7 days per generation (ie: assuming that the average person only spreads COVID19 for 7 days), the period from March20th to April 5th represents 2.3 generations of growth. 12.58 ^ 1/2.3 == an R0 of 3.01.

------------









						Basic reproduction number - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




The 2014 Flu was around 1.7 R0. Ebola is 1.7. Measles is like 16.

So COVID19 is about 2x more infectious than the Flu or Ebola, but 1/5th Measles infection rate. Rough numbers of course. Lots of studies are coming out with different R0 estimations. But emperical evidence from the USA suggests an R0 rate close to 3. We'd need to know how long people infect other people (and other such modeling assumptions). But that probably gives you a back-of-the-envelope guestimation and maybe some insight into the thinking and math of public health.


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## Ahhzz (Jun 18, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The "true infection" rate is highly dependent on human behavior. During a lockdown, the infection rate declines.
> 
> R0 is the base reproduction rate, which is the average number of people that will get infected per generation without any safeguards in place. There were many, many studies on this, with results anywhere from 2 to 6 or so (maybe broader).
> 
> ...


Thanks for the links, I'll peruse shortly    . I'm not sure that going off the mortality numbers is going to be anywhere near "close enough" tho, especially when testing in the US was severely limited in the time frame you mentioned.
I didn't expect that many studies on the process yet, so I'll definitely do some digging to see if I can get a feel for what they expect. I think it will be way too hard to get really close, even in a single country, due to the asymptomatic cases, and limited testing. Honestly, probably wasting time even checking due to all the variables... Anyway, thanks for the links, ought to be entertaining if nothing else!


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 18, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Thanks for the links, I'll peruse shortly    . I'm not sure that going off the mortality numbers is going to be anywhere near "close enough" tho, especially when testing in the US was severely limited in the time frame you mentioned.
> I didn't expect that many studies on the process yet, so I'll definitely do some digging to see if I can get a feel for what they expect. I think it will be way too hard to get really close, even in a single country, due to the asymptomatic cases, and limited testing. Honestly, probably wasting time even checking due to all the variables... Anyway, thanks for the links, ought to be entertaining if nothing else!



For the purposes of this post, lets assume US Testing was only 60% complete. That means that the "True" fatality rate for March20th might be over 1000, while the "true" fatality rate for April5th is over 12000.

But guess what? As long as the USA was consistently underestimating in both weeks, then my math remains the same. 1085 for March 25th, 13648 for April 10th. 13648 / 1085 == 1258%, my math hasn't changed at all. 1258% of course becomes R0 of 3.01.

It doesn't matter how much % underestimating anyone was. As long as the country was *consistent* in its measurement, we are able to discover the truth, even in the presence of missing or incomplete data.



> Honestly, probably wasting time even checking due to all the variables... Anyway, thanks for the links, ought to be entertaining if nothing else!



Its a very important question to actually model this. Back in March, when people were questioning whether or not countries should lock down, this math was incredibly important to run through. The issue back then was that we only had Chinese data (and not everyone trusted China to be telling the full truth with their numbers), but it seems like the Wuhan model was pretty close to what happened elsewhere in the world.

And now that we're looking at opening our countries back up, we need to think about the "R" number (the true reproductive number), and how to keep it reasonable. R of 1 or less means that the virus will no longer be growing (1000 infected becomes 1000 infected in the next generation... no growth). The goal of our reopenings is to open up and get as close to R == 1 as possible, without getting over. As such, we need to continue testing and collecting statistics on our reopening plans. If R grows above 1 at any point, we need to reverse the reopenings and start locking down again.

EDIT: A huge discussion point was the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Because virtually everyone was exposed to the virus, as well as tested, it was the perfect "test case" back in February to study.



			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028449v2.full.pdf
		




> We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1−2.4)



Back then, they estimated an R0 of 2.2 on the cruise ship. But we have more data these days to estimate that parameter now. A huge amount of discussion and research has gone into R0, its one of the most important numbers to understand this disease.


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## HTC (Jun 18, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 38089 confirmed infected --- 417 more
- 24010 recovered --- 430 more
- 1524 fatalities --- 1 more
- 357291 suspected cases --- 2084 more
- 1006563 tests taken --- not updated ...
- 1337 waiting for test results --- *10 less*
- 30426 under watch from authorities --- 137 more
- 416 hospitalized --- *19 less*
- 67 in ICU --- *2 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the *13th day in a row*: this never happened before.

According to Portuguese news channels, we've crossed 1M tests taken *@ least three days ago* ... which is in line with them NOT UPDATING that stat properly, like all the others stats ...

The reason the lower bottom right section is different is that, unlike yesterday and before when it showed infected, recovered and death's numbers evolution, it's now showing hospitalized and ICU numbers evolution, which i'll continue to do from now on. As can be seen it was going down "quite nicely" until 10 days ago when it went up again, though it appears to be stabilizing.


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## HTC (Jun 19, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 38464 confirmed infected --- 375 more
- 24477 recovered --- 467 more
- 1527 fatalities --- 3 more
- 359579 suspected cases --- 2288 more
- 1047109 tests taken --- 40546 more, but it "feels" low for @ least 4 days worth of tests
- 1530 waiting for test results --- 193 more
- 29046 under watch from authorities --- *1380 less*
- 422 hospitalized --- 6 more
- 67 in ICU --- no change

Single digit daily death toll for the *14th day in a row*: this never happened before.

Lisbon has crossed the 3K infected mark and is by far the hardest hit county.


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## HTC (Jun 20, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 38841 confirmed infected --- 377 more
- 24906 recovered --- 429 more
- 1528 fatalities --- 1 more
- 361848 suspected cases --- 2269 more
- 1047109 tests taken --- not updated ...
- 1771 waiting for test results --- 241 more
- 30852 under watch from authorities --- 1806 more
- 422 hospitalized --- no change
- 70 in ICU --- 3 more

Single digit daily death toll for the *15th day in a row*. We've yet to have a day with no COVID-19 fatalities though, like today, we've been "pretty close" to that goal.

We had, as can be seen in the lower right portion of the graph above, a steadily declining rate of hospitalized and ICU numbers until about 2 weeks ago when they suddenly climbed a bit again and have, since then, sort of stabilized: it's unknown @ this point if the 300 to 450 daily infected cases lately will contribute to have these numbers climb again but i wouldn't be surprised if it did ...


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 20, 2020)

There's a *LOT* of people out on the streets again, now that Phase 2 reopening has officially started.

Most seem to be wearing masks (as per the local Maryland law), but many people are doing the stupid "mask over mouth, but not nose" thing. I guess its still better than no covering at all, but it really removes the point of the mask if you can still breath in air unimpeded.

I guess you still prevent aerosols from spewing while you talk however, so its not completely a waste.


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## Tatty_One (Jun 20, 2020)

UK Update 20 June:


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## P4-630 (Jun 20, 2020)

Netherlands June 20:

Positive tested: +91
Hospitalized: +2
Deaths: +8


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## HTC (Jun 20, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> There's a *LOT* of people out on the streets again, now that Phase 2 reopening has officially started.
> 
> Most seem to be wearing masks (as per the local Maryland law), *but many people are doing the stupid "mask over mouth, but not nose" thing*. I guess its still better than no covering at all, but it really removes the point of the mask if you can still breath in air unimpeded.
> 
> I guess you still prevent aerosols from spewing while you talk however, so its not completely a waste.



I said it before (elsewhere) and i'll say it again: act and conduct yourself like *EVERYONE* you come in contact with is an unknowingly asymptomatic infected, *for as long as there is no medicine* that significantly reduces the need for hospitalization or, better yet, a vaccine is found and distributed worldwide, regardless of how long that takes.

EDIT

By "you" and "yourself" i mean in general: not @ you specifically.


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## dirtyferret (Jun 20, 2020)

"Florida is screwed.  Basically every other flight from metro NYC is going to one of Florida four major metro areas.  You won't be hit hard now but once NYC is set free it will go through Florida like crap through a goose and that nitwit governor won't help"
I posted that May 9th and got a low quality mark on it so I can't quote it but look at Florida now









						Florida’s Covid-19 surge shows the state's reopening plan is not working
					

As counties end the second week of Governor Ron DeSantis’ ‘safe, smart, step-by-step’ policy, the state marks a record high in daily cases




					www.google.com


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## Tatty_One (Jun 20, 2020)

dirtyferret said:


> "Florida is screwed.  Basically every other flight from metro NYC is going to one of Florida four major metro areas.  You won't be hit hard now but once NYC is set free it will go through Florida like crap through a goose and that nitwit governor won't help"
> I posted that May 9th and got a low quality mark on it so I can't quote it but look at Florida now
> 
> 
> ...


I must admit, I thought it strange that so many states were reopening when a few had not reached their peak, although I think Florida did reach peak certainly initially.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 20, 2020)

dirtyferret said:


> "Florida is screwed.  Basically every other flight from metro NYC is going to one of Florida four major metro areas.  You won't be hit hard now but once NYC is set free it will go through Florida like crap through a goose and that nitwit governor won't help"
> I posted that May 9th and got a low quality mark on it so I can't quote it but look at Florida now
> 
> 
> ...



The general issue is that people are so skeptical of the "media" and "science" that they don't want to believe in the reported numbers at all.

As I've said before: even in my inner circle of friends, coworkers, and family... a large number of people distrust the numbers due to a variety of reasons. From anti-media bias (media didn't blame protesters), to anti-government bias ("Deep State"), to anti-science bias ("The scientists were wrong about masks (or whatever), they're probably wrong again"). The only thing to convince someone of that level of skepticism is to wait for the disease to affect them personally. In fact, a huge number of my inner-circle still believe in "herd immunity" as the best way forward. (Just get everyone sick approach).

I'm happy that my governor is looking at the numbers and actually doing a science-based approach to all this. Phase 2 is worrying me because it really seems to be a much larger reopening than the Phase1 step... but I'm pretty confident that if things go haywire, my governor / local leaders will make the correct decision to make us safe again. I'm not sure if that's true across the country however.


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## Tatty_One (Jun 20, 2020)

We are deep into phase 2 now, phase 3 will start on 4th July with tourism (within UK) and hospitality starting back up but with some limitations, that will be when it all either goes South or it's managed appropriately. Government for the sake of hospitality have announced they will reduce the 2 metre social distancing limit to 1 metre because so many small  restaurants and bars can't make ends meet with so few customers, I feel it's a mistake, I don't want to see a sector of small businesses go bust but there are 66 million people in this country and they all take the hit if things do go south.

All schools will not now be back until September so currently just a select 15% or so are at school currently.

Edit:  The population generally believe what is happening and take it seriously, we have loads of coverage at the local TV networks level showing stories of loss and suffering, people know it's real, we also have documentaries focussing on front line medical staff showing them near breaking point during the peak.


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## dirtyferret (Jun 20, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I must admit, I thought it strange that so many states were reopening when a few had not reached their peak, although I think Florida did reach peak certainly initially.





dragontamer5788 said:


> The general issue is that people are so skeptical of the "media" and "science" that they don't want to believe in the reported numbers at all.
> 
> As I've said before: even in my inner circle of friends, coworkers, and family... a large number of people distrust the numbers due to a variety of reasons. From anti-media bias (media didn't blame protesters), to anti-government bias ("Deep State"), to anti-science bias ("The scientists were wrong about masks (or whatever), they're probably wrong again"). The only thing to convince someone of that level of skepticism is to wait for the disease to affect them personally. In fact, a huge number of my inner-circle still believe in "herd immunity" as the best way forward. (Just get everyone sick approach).
> 
> I'm happy that my governor is looking at the numbers and actually doing a science-based approach to all this. Phase 2 is worrying me because it really seems to be a much larger reopening than the Phase1 step... but I'm pretty confident that if things go haywire, my governor / local leaders will make the correct decision to make us safe again. I'm not sure if that's true across the country however.



I have a co-worker who just went down to Florida for a week saying how great it is that no one wears a mask and everything is open.  He is one these fox news watchers who states that the only reason more people are getting it is because they are testing more people.  I explained to him that Florida is testing the same amount of people now as they have for the past four weeks yet numbers are still increasing every week (see linked article above).  I love Florida, I have been there countless times all over the state and was married on a beach in Florida but it was easy to see everyone from Boston Chicago, and NYC were going to run down there as fast they could the second the state opened up and that idiot governor is basically embracing them with open arms while he has the highest percentage of people over 65+ in his state (florida has almost as many 65+ as Cali with half the Cali population) and lacks a medical infrastructure like those big cities to handle this.


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## the54thvoid (Jun 20, 2020)

Most Western countries (I don't class South America as Western) have falling rates. The US, for whatever reason, is rising again.

That should mean in 2-3 weeks, there will be an associated rise in fatalities. One to watch. The UK, I fear, will follow the same path as our government doesn't appear to know it's ass from it's elbow.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 20, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> That should mean in 2-3 weeks, there will be an associated rise in fatalities



Texas and Florida area already seeing a rise in cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities.

But once again, people don't believe in the numbers, even if you point it out. So I dunno where to bring the discussion forward beyond that. If they can't believe in the reported numbers, then there's no further discussion possible.

Talk about cases, and they counter with "testing has improved". Talk about hospitalizations or fatalities, they just counter with conspiracy theories (doctors are lying and/or encouraged to inflate COVID19 counts for money). So that's that. If its what they believe, then there's no real way to talk them out of it. There are so many counter arguments to COVID19. Its really annoying. They really don't want to believe that this problem exists at all.


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## HTC (Jun 20, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> The population generally believe what is happening and take it seriously, we have loads of coverage at the local TV networks level showing stories of loss and suffering, people know it's real, *we also have documentaries focussing on front line medical staff showing them near breaking point during the peak*.


This should be emphasized on TV regularly so that it's ingrained in people's heads that, once the rush to hospitals with C-19 patients starts it gets *really bad really fast*.

Furthermore, politicians, health officials *must re-enforce constantly* with whatever media they choose (TV, papers, social media, etc) the *need to keep the protective measures in place*: just because the country is easing up it's C-19 restrictions, people can't let their guard down or it will run the risk of it going badly and have another lockdown, be it localized or not, and *nobody* want's that.

Also, specially directed @ politicians, but @ everyone else that speaks about the country's current situation: *speak the truth* so that the people you serve *believe you and follow your guidance*. There are a few bad examples "out there" that show us what happens when you don't, and i'll leave it @ that ...

This goes for *ALL* countries.


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## Regeneration (Jun 21, 2020)

Going today to the hospital for a wrist surgery after a sport injury. I'm not thrilled about this, but making rotatory movements is difficult for me, so there is no choice. If I don't come back it means I died from corona virus.


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## Vayra86 (Jun 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> I said it before (elsewhere) and i'll say it again: act and conduct yourself like *EVERYONE* you come in contact with is an unknowingly asymptomatic infected, *for as long as there is no medicine* that significantly reduces the need for hospitalization or, better yet, a vaccine is found and distributed worldwide, regardless of how long that takes.
> 
> EDIT
> 
> By "you" and "yourself" i mean in general: not @ you specifically.



Considered the ramifications for that when you consider a 'cure' is never conclusive? Even a vaccine is not. Flu vaccine... we still get the flu and elderly still have a highly elevated chance of dying from that. For Covid, even vaccinated, risk groups will still exist. The percentage might drop a bit here and there, and the R-number might go down. What you WILL be seeing in the coming months is a combination of treatments that allow us to reduce the severity/impact of covid on the body and subsequently the mind (the goal will be to avoid IC).

I'm not joining in that panic mode, if you don't mind. I treat this as I do every other disease ever - its invisible and you might catch it. I know, I like living on the edge. Its pretty comfy, try it. Think long and hard, and place yourself two years from now. Are you going to be the same person? I doubt that.

At the same time, what you can 'reasonably' do, in my mind, is to get yourself tested whenever you think you might have been in a high risk area. If we all do that, we can take the sharp edge off any big spreader events and can probably go about our merry way, keeping R below 1. The biggest advantage of that approach? I'll list it for you.
1. No social awkwardness or strange behaviour.
2. You can still do whatever YOU want in total freedom to protect yourself or others.
3. No peer pressure elevates our civil rights to where they should be.
4. We will be able to accept lockdown measures and specific orders (you're a risk, please stay at home) over prolonged periods of time; I think this must be clear by now, it ain't gone tomorrow. Or *ever*.
5. Social unrest is kept to minimum.
6. Its _fair. _Right now society is full of haves and have nots. In a risk group? Lots of rules and rights don't apply for you. Imagine being in an elderly home right now. Yep. Not seeing anyone. Just wither and die, thanks. You want to keep that up? But its not just them. Suicide rates are already higher than they've ever been in many countries. Socially challenged people have even less reason or means to come into contact with others. The list is endless and the pain is everywhere. Loneliness and social distance _is a killer._

What we need to do at large right now, is devise a strategy to go back to business as usual, with minimal constraints. We're slowly moving that way. Going all 'must do all I can'-mode now, is going to eat away at you faster than you might think. What will happen is more specific, directed/regional/local lockdowns and I reckon we will try to extinguish this everywhere it pops up in number.

Oh and note: ask the highest ranking virologists what they think of this... they will *all *agree. Yes you want to maximize protection, but not at every cost and definitely avoiding counterproductivity. Nature will have its course, whether you want it or not. The harder you press down on Covid today, the more likely you create a new one the next day. Its a struggle we won't ever win.

I'm taking all the info I see around me, and my conclusion has still not changed from the very onset of this crisis. The risk is minor, it hits the weakest link in our evolution (prolonging old age with no 'benefit' to the species, only emotional attachment), and it has all the characteristics to remain in the population, unseen. Its clearly an answer to balance out overpopulation. This is the way of nature, and that is why, it will be covid today, and covid v2 tomorrow - because we won't stop saving lives.

So that is the real end game here.

About that social unrest... its happening. The whole BLM thing for example, you can rest assured the lockdowns are a catalyst. Not a cause; but definitely a catalyst. Things are and have been brewing, we have urges. The fact they go out and take that sort of risk, says something about the importance of the subject. But it also places perspective on how bad this virus really is. So far, almost none of these protests have been superspreader events.

How about this one - note. This is _Germany_. With some of the more successful policies, very good testing policy, and relative freedom. And known to stick to the rules. They had to quarantine a whole flat, 120 known cases inside, 700 people. This was saturday:

Police officers injured because they wanted to break out @ Gottingen. So I'll repeat that: the *social norm* in this country, is you stick to the rules, no matter what. But here these same people are literally taking up arms and becoming violent against police. Normal people. Could've been one of us. So like I said. Think long and hard.












						Live: Wereldwijd meer dan 9 miljoen coronabesmettingen | Coronapatiënten opgenomen in luxehotels Delhi
					

Terwijl het aantal besmettingen in ruim tachtig landen toeneemt, waarschuwt de WHO voor ‘een nieuwe en gevaarlijke fase’ in de pandemie. Volg de la...




					www.volkskrant.nl


----------



## Readlight (Jun 21, 2020)

Zero positive Latvija. Perhaps because low economy growth.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jun 21, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Most Western countries (I don't class South America as Western) have falling rates. The US, for whatever reason, is rising again.
> 
> That should mean in 2-3 weeks, there will be an associated rise in fatalities. One to watch. The UK, I fear, will follow the same path as our government doesn't appear to know it's ass from it's elbow.
> 
> View attachment 159618



I think UK is still 'small enough' to make changes. The US however? The way that society is divided in idea and distance is a perfect recipe for permanent coexistence with Covid. There is also no real, centralised control on a national level, another thing the UK has in spades.


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## Caring1 (Jun 21, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> So that is the real end game here.
> Cops on duty.
> View attachment 159686


Cops during a donut break.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 21, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> If we all do that, we can take the sharp edge off any big spreader events and can probably go about our merry way, keeping R below 1.



R is clearly above 1 in many locations, and those states are refusing to do anything about it.

Arizona is an example of this: a few weeks ago Arizona had a %Positive rate of only 6%. It has now doubled and is above 12% Positive testing rate. https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...arizona-increased-hospitalization/5328560002/

Florida has also grown to 12% positive testing rates: https://www.wfla.com/community/heal...positive-as-state-adds-record-4049-new-cases/

I don't live in those states. But its clear that whatever they're doing is getting worse. Arizona acknowledges the fact by issuing emergency orders to hospitals. But they aren't doing anything to help the public... even "masks" have become a political issue and they seem to refuse to use them.

Fortunately, individual cities (ie: Pheonix) are issuing mask orders. But a state-wide mask order would command higher respect and a higher % of people would follow it. I can't believe we have to work so hard to state the obvious: a respiratory virus can be controlled by controlling breathing.


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## HTC (Jun 21, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 39133 confirmed infected --- 292 more
- 25376 recovered --- 470 more
- 1530 fatalities --- 2 more
- 363133 suspected cases --- 1285 more
- 1047109 tests taken --- not updated ... again ...
- 1826 waiting for test results --- 55 more
- 30855 under watch from authorities --- 3 more
- 407 hospitalized --- *15 less*
- 69 in ICU --- *1 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the *16th day in a row*.

On a more "closer to home" note, the county i lived in for 25 years and where my parents still reside has had an increase in confirmed cases from 66 yesterday to 91 today.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jun 21, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> R is clearly above 1 in many locations, and those states are refusing to do anything about it.
> 
> Arizona is an example of this: a few weeks ago Arizona had a %Positive rate of only 6%. It has now doubled and is above 12% Positive testing rate. https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...arizona-increased-hospitalization/5328560002/
> 
> ...



I don't live in the US - I live in the Netherlands.

Over here, mask usage is still barely happening, it is mandatory in public transportation (and note: 'non medical mask'... despite WHO recommendation lol), but a large part is avoiding it altogether. I'm among them tbh, but then I have the luxury to do so.

As for the outbreaks in states now... isn't that just a result of how the country is organized? We don't divide our country in states. We have provinces, municipalities, but local enforcement and stuff happens on different networks, and all of them are somehow centrally coordinated. It was the first thing we initiated when measures started; a national command center that had full jurisdiction over all resources.

This type of coordination happened in some countries. And virtually all of them are in the lower death count segment - China is among them too. The fragmented approach is likely a direct cause for higher death count. Makes total sense too - the New York 'surge' is now just moving to different places. All of those states are going through their own shock and awe moments just like all those countries around the world did, one by one, even with all the evidence on the table.

Italy is a nice example. They got overwhelmed and local governments each did what they could on their own for a while, with a direct result: superspreading and overwhelmed emergency services. After all, what happens when you scramble for aid? You get lots of people running around the place.



dragontamer5788 said:


> respiratory virus can be controlled by controlling breathing.



Evidence still suggests this is not the case. You can only do that locally, but the virus will not go away for it. That points to the use of protective gear in high risk areas only. The challenge here, is not 'how do we get more masks out', the challenge is localization of high risk areas, and imposing effective measures on that location only. That is also how we make it 'bearable'. Its easier to accept those measures on an incidental basis and for a specific reason. Got tested positive or awaiting test because you might be? Sit at home. Its just that simple.

Anyway... again about the damn masks lol.


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## Caring1 (Jun 22, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> .... a respiratory virus can be controlled by controlling breathing.


Sure, stop breathing and you have no chance of catching the Covid virus.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> As for the outbreaks in states now... isn't that just a result of how the country is organized?



No. Its pretty clear that the conspiracy theories have taken root and that a large segment of our population refuse to take the threat seriously.

I've got family members turning off "5G" radios (confused over 2.4 GHz and 5GHz bands), blaming secret labs in China and thinking that COVID19 is a giant Democrat hoax to reduce trust in the current President. This crap is so widespread and it pisses me off significantly. This isn't one or two members either, this misinformation is widespread.

I'm frankly convinced that this mask thing is just another misinformation / conspiracy campaign. People who can't even admit that covering your mouth to protect your breathing has a chance of being useful. True, it takes a bit of understanding + training (habit forming) to use a mask properly. But its really simple: wash your hands (or sanitize with a pocket-sized alcohol spray) whenever you touch the mask (both before and after). And you're pretty much set. Cleaning is as simple as throwing it in the laundry. Its not really hard at all once you get used to it.

The virus infects the lungs: it comes from other people's lungs and the #1 risk is the virus entering through your breathing. Medical grade masks have been *proven* to be effective at protecting medical workers... while home-made masks cannot be proven (we are all making masks of varying quality). Nonetheless, it only makes sense that covering your mouth would help.

-----------

With that being said, a lot of people are using the wrong mask material to make their masks, and might have too much difficulty breathing. A 2-ply cotton shirt is easy enough to breath through and has proven to be 60% effective against 0.3 um aerosols (compared to 95% effective for N95 medical grade masks). But sure, pretend its 0% useful if you want, its no different than disagreements with a ton of other people I know.


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## HTC (Jun 22, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 39392 confirmed infected --- 259 more
- 25548 recovered --- 172 more
- 1534 fatalities --- 4 more
- 364305 suspected cases --- 1172 more
- 1047109 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... still ...
- 1782 waiting for test results --- *44 less*
- 30956 under watch from authorities --- 101 more
- 424 hospitalized --- 17 more
- 72 in ICU --- 3 more

Single digit daily death toll for the *17th day in a row*.

Because our official Health Site is updating later and later lately, i can't update our daily numbers before going to work like i used to and have to do it after returning from work, like today.


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## HTC (Jun 23, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 39737 confirmed infected --- 345 more
- 25829 recovered --- 281 more
- 1540 fatalities --- 6 more
- 366777 suspected cases --- 2472 more
- 1047109 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... still ... again ...
- 1759 waiting for test results --- *23 less*
- 30248 under watch from authorities --- *708 less*
- 441 hospitalized --- 17 more
- 72 in ICU --- no change

Single digit daily death toll for the *18th day in a row*, but that's the only good news today.

As of today, our Government has *increased* the restrictions on 21 parishes: it's not @ an emergency state but it's not as eased as the rest of the country. It's becoming problematic in those areas because, though our hospitalized number isn't as high as it was during the peak, it's mostly concentrated in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley, which had 299 of the 345 daily new infected cases, to the point that 3 of the local hospitals currently have over 80% capacity already filled and the remaining hospitals of the area have near 70% already.

Our situation may get worse because the measures we put in place today will only show their results 1 to 2 weeks from today. IMO, this should have been done @ least one week ago, but it's most certainly a step in the right direction.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 24, 2020)

Maryland's numbers are still on the general decline. But %Positive seems to have reached a ~5%ish minimum.





%Positive increases by 0.11 today. Hospitalizations continue to decline.

Last Friday was the first "Phase 2" reopening. But I don't expect any increases (if they happen) until ~7 to 14 days after the reopening due to the delayed nature of COVID19. I'm mostly focused on the hospitalization numbers.


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## the54thvoid (Jun 24, 2020)

Ah Brazil.

What happens when your idiotic leader plays down any problems (while he tries to bulldoze through the amazon - the dumb ****)





Also - this is the only country we know of that 'openly' tried to suppress the release of information.


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## HTC (Jun 24, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 40104 confirmed infected --- 367 more
- 26083 recovered --- 254 more
- 1543 fatalities --- 3 more
- 368967 suspected cases --- 2190 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- 54957 more
- 1586 waiting for test results --- *173 less*
- 30935 under watch from authorities --- 687 more
- 429 hospitalized --- *12 less*
- 73 in ICU --- 1 more

Single digit daily death toll for the *19th day in a row*, but that's the only good news today.

They finally updated the tests taken stat except ... they haven't ... fully: unless they drastically reduced the daily amount of tests taken, the number of days it wasn't updated VS the increase since the last update doesn't add up ...


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## lexluthermiester (Jun 25, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Most Western countries (I don't class South America as Western) have falling rates. The US, for whatever reason, is rising again.
> 
> That should mean in 2-3 weeks, there will be an associated rise in fatalities. One to watch. The UK, I fear, will follow the same path as our government doesn't appear to know it's ass from it's elbow.
> 
> View attachment 159618


If you look at that chart you will see the spikes up and down but with a general trend of the numbers going down. June might be an outlier. Time will tell.


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## the54thvoid (Jun 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> If you look at that chart you will see the spikes up and down but with a general trend of the numbers going down. June might be an outlier. Time will tell.



This is the update:





Taking Florida as an example, you can see the surge from some states are causing this rise. It's not a blip.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 25, 2020)

Number of cases is a bad statistic to work with. With so many states increasing their testing capabilities, we need to start looking at other numbers.

---------

Florida's truly bad numbers is the %Positive rate, which has shot up from 5% a few weeks ago all the way to 15% positive this week. Along with this massive increase in %positive results, Florida is seeing a spike in hospitalizations.

%Positive and hospitalization rates are independent of the number of tests taken. As such, %Positive and Hospitalization rates are closer to the truth. Looking backwards in time, number of deaths is probably the most accurate statistic, but it takes nearly two months before death counts solidify. (1 month for an infected person to die, and a 2nd month before all the statistics are gathered in the CDC for rapid analysis. Reliable results aren't for a few months after that...).

-----









						UPDATE: Florida’s rate of positive COVID-19 tests hovers around 3%
					

Coronavirus cases were first reported in Florida in March of 2020.




					www.clickorlando.com
				






> The state of Florida saw a 19.97% daily positive rate for coronavirus on Wednesday.
> 
> The rate on Tuesday was 14.10%.
> 
> The latest daily data from the Florida Department of Health shows 5,511 patients out of 27,602 people tested positive for COVID-19.



Hmm, I guess on Wednesday this week, Florida spikes to nearly 20% positive rate. That's... really, really bad. Florida was famous for flaunting social distancing, with many "Spring Break" people comingling on the beaches. Florida will also be the place for the Republican National Convention in a few months. It took Maryland over a month of lockdown before our numbers improved... I'm not sure if Florida would be ready for the RNC.


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## the54thvoid (Jun 25, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Number of cases is a bad statistic to work with. With so many states increasing their testing capabilities, we need to start looking at other numbers.
> 
> ---------
> 
> ...



While I agree to some extent, the UK has been ramping up it's testing since April/May. Numbers still falling. So, increassed testing does not infer increase of cases. It can show a massive fall in prevalence.





But, yes, the %postive is a more reflective indicator of rise/fall.


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## Vayra86 (Jun 25, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> No. Its pretty clear that the conspiracy theories have taken root and that a large segment of our population refuse to take the threat seriously.
> 
> I've got family members turning off "5G" radios (confused over 2.4 GHz and 5GHz bands), blaming secret labs in China and thinking that COVID19 is a giant Democrat hoax to reduce trust in the current President. This crap is so widespread and it pisses me off significantly. This isn't one or two members either, this misinformation is widespread.
> 
> ...



I'm going to quote you in the other covid topic  Let's keep it out of here.


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## the54thvoid (Jun 25, 2020)

Well, I think England's going to see a spike (note the date - we can give it a week). Although the virus is very low in the community, this sort of action is a little reckless.

This was Bournemouth in Dorset. The council said 33 tonnes of rubbish was cleaned up on Thursday morning.

And, with the second picture (the garbage), don't you just hate these people? Reprobates.


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## EarthDog (Jun 25, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> While I agree to some extent, the UK has been ramping up it's testing since April/May. Numbers still falling. So, increassed testing does not infer increase of cases. It can show a massive fall in prevalence.


I would LOVE to see a chart like that where it shows the number of new cases and how many tests that day along with the % of positive. THAT, IMO, is quite informative.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 25, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> I would LOVE to see a chart like that where it shows the number of new cases and how many tests that day along with the % of positive. THAT, IMO, is quite informative.



I'm a fan of Maryland's format. Speaking of which, here's today's update.


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## HTC (Jun 25, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 40415 confirmed infected --- 311 more
- 26382 recovered --- 299 more
- 1549 fatalities --- 6 more
- 371024 suspected cases --- 2057 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated
- 1524 waiting for test results --- *62 less*
- 31113 under watch from authorities --- 178 more
- 436 hospitalized --- 7 more
- 67 in ICU --- *6 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the *20th consecutive day*.


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## lexluthermiester (Jun 26, 2020)

Portugal's numbers are really starting to look good.


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## HTC (Jun 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Portugal's numbers are really starting to look good.



Actually, no: we've increased restrictions in *19* parishes precisely because it isn't looking good.

The vast majority of our country's new daily numbers are from Lisbon and Tejo River Valley, to the point that there's 3 hospitals already with over 80% capacity filled, with the rest of the region's hospitals being over 70% (not referring to ICUs). Meanwhile, the rest of the country's regions combined have less the 100 new daily cases.

This is better showcased with a couple of pics, from May 25th and June 25th respectively (red = infected cases and black = fatalities):



 



As can be seen, while the rest of the country's regions "gained" less than 400 new cases in a month's time (except northern region, that "gained" 673), Lisbon and Tejo River Valley "gained" 8200 new cases, and that's why we're increasing the restrictions in the most affected parishes, to try and improve our situation.

EDIT

Turns out it's 19 parishes and not 21, as i had stated: it were 21 @ 1st but there was a change and i was unaware of it.


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## lexluthermiester (Jun 26, 2020)

HTC said:


> Actually, no: we've increased restrictions in 21 parishes precisely because it isn't looking good.


To me those numbers, over all, look like they're making solid improvement. Better than we're getting stateside anyway..


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## HTC (Jun 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> To me those numbers, over all, look like they're making solid improvement. Better than we're getting stateside anyway..


I'd agree if the cases were more "evenly distributed" but, though we're not bad, we aren't good either.

If we were to scale that up to USA's population, that 8200 increase in a month would be the equivalent of 262400 cases in USA, or nearly 8500 cases per day: that's no small number.


----------



## FordGT90Concept (Jun 26, 2020)

Where U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise
					

The states where the outbreak is growing fastest




					graphics.reuters.com
				



California, Texas, Arizona, and Florida cases are soaring.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 26, 2020)

FordGT90Concept said:


> Where U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise
> 
> 
> The states where the outbreak is growing fastest
> ...



Cases are soaring. Hospitalizations are a bit weird though. Texas is without a doubt in a bad situation (cases + hospitalizations are up). California and Florida are more open to interpretation.

The big question is if hospitalizations (and deaths) will follow up. There's also some issues with Florida's hospitalization statistics, since they recently changed the definition of hospitalizations.


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## the54thvoid (Jun 26, 2020)

You're easily looking at two weeks for a concomitant rise in fatalities. But there is better understanding of treatment for severe cases so what was fatal in March, may now be treatable.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 26, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> You're easily looking at two weeks for a concomitant rise in fatalities.



I agree. But "number of cases" is a statistic I assign pretty low trust over. At least under our current conditions / testing regime. We've talked about it before, so I won't repeat myself.



> But there is better understanding of treatment for severe cases so what was fatal in March, may now be treatable.



That's a factoid I didn't think much about. You're right though, there was that new steroid that the British are using to save over 30% of cases now, or something like that. The mortality rate with proper treatment would naturally be much lower, now that we've researched treatments for a few months.


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## HTC (Jun 27, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated (Friday):

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 40866 confirmed infected --- 451 more
- 26633 recovered --- 251 more
- 1555 fatalities --- 6 more
- 373293 suspected cases --- 2269 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated ... again
- 1561 waiting for test results --- 37 more
- 31246 under watch from authorities --- 133 more
- 457 hospitalized --- 21 more
- 67 in ICU --- no change

Single digit daily death toll for the *21st consecutive day*.

There's been an increase in 91 hospitalizations since we reached the lowest point (June 8th), with 366: the big problem is that most of the hospitalizations are in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region and it's hospitals are nearing full capacity.


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## lexluthermiester (Jun 27, 2020)

HTC said:


> Single digit daily death toll for the *21st consecutive day*.


This is what I was talking about earlier. To me, this is solid improvement.


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## HTC (Jun 27, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> This is what I was talking about earlier. To me, this is solid improvement.



You seem to forget the lag that comes with confirmed infected -> hospitalization -> ICU -> death: it varies but it can be well over a month between the "1st stage" and the "4th stage".

It's why we are experiencing a rise in hospitalizations now, though mostly localized (24.86% more, 457 today VS 366 @ the lowest point after the peak). Then there will be an increase in ICU number, which is what comes next ... and then the death toll increases in a more pronounced fashion.

Hopefully, we can take advantage of the steroid UK discovered and can curb our fatalities number down with it.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 27, 2020)

HTC said:


> You seem to forget the lag that comes with confirmed infected -> hospitalization -> ICU -> death: it varies but it can be well over a month between the "1st stage" and the "4th stage".


While that's true, from what I've read, starting from the time a patient goes into the ICU to the time of death is often less than to weeks. This is of course dependent on where you read your data from. 








						Healthcare Workers
					

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.




					www.cdc.gov
				



Recovery is generally about 2 weeks from ICU, but mortality is faster. The fact that fewer people are dying is a good sign that doctors are learning fast how to deal with this and more people recover.


----------



## HTC (Jun 27, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> *While that's true, from what I've read, starting from the time a patient goes into the ICU to the time of death is often less than to weeks. This is of course dependent on where you read your data from.*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You may have missed the part where i was stating:



HTC said:


> It's why we are experiencing *a* *rise in hospitalizations now*, though mostly localized



Though ICU number have also climbed, they haven't done so by as much as hospitalized but i'll expect them to start climbing "more consistently" in about a week or so. After a while the deaths will too, unless that steroid is used or some other drug that mitigates C-19's in more serious cases (if it's discovered between now and then).

And this isn't counting the last 10 to 15 days that have been having roughly 300 new cases per day *in the region i have been mentioning*. Since roughly 10% of those will eventually require hospitalization, that's roughly 300 to 450 people right there, which will push the region's hospitals to the verge of collapse and @ least require some sort of "campaign hospitals" or transferring patients to other non-local hospitals, in order to help cope with the rush of people.

If our situation were more "generalized" this wouldn't be bad, but the vast majority of new cases (75% to 90% and sometimes more) are in that region, and that's why this is a serious problem.

EDIT --- post merged ...

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 41189 confirmed infected --- 323 more
- 26864 recovered --- 231 more
- 1561 fatalities --- 6 more
- 375490 suspected cases --- 2197 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... still
- 1627 waiting for test results --- 66 more
- 31255 under watch from authorities --- 9 more
- 442 hospitalized --- *15 less*
- 70 in ICU --- 3 more

Single digit daily death toll for the *22nd consecutive day*.


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## HTC (Jun 28, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 41646 confirmed infected --- 457 more
- 27066 recovered --- 202 more
- 1564 fatalities --- 3 more
- 376815 suspected cases --- 1325 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... still ... again
- 1511 waiting for test results --- *116 less*
- 31299 under watch from authorities --- 44 more
- 458 hospitalized --- 16 more
- 75 in ICU --- 5 more

Single digit daily death toll for the *23rd consecutive day*.

That chart i made a while back with 13 countries worth of infected cases data: i added 2 more countries (India and Mexico) and updated the data to yesterday (click for full picture):



Of those in the chart, India is the one that has their cases doubling the fastest but Brazil is close behind, along with Mexico. However, and because Brazil has WAY more cases than either of them, it's Brazil who's worse of all right now.

(Dis)honorable mention to USA because they're having their cases spike up to a worrisome degree and, though they are doubling their cases @ a much slower pace than Brazil, they still have almost twice the number of cases of Brazil.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 28, 2020)

HTC said:


> (Dis)honorable mention to USA because they're having their cases spike up to a worrisome degree and, though they are doubling their cases @ a much slower pace than Brazil, they still have almost twice the number of cases of Brazil.



Despite the rise, a number of people I know still don't really believe in the virus and refuse to take basic precautions (masks) over it.

Texas has only banned meetings of 100+ people this past week. Original CDC guidelines were to ban meetings of 50+, and were eventually lowered to meetings of 10+. So Texas is too little, too late with its reaction. In a few days, they'll surely come around and realize that their 100+ meeting ban isn't nearly strict enough.

I mean... at least mayors of Texas are allowed to enforce masks now. It was illegal a few weeks ago to make a city-level mask ban in Texas. But they're moving way too slow about this. Even after Maryland enacted severe and swift countermeasures (Meetings of size 10+ were banned, masks everywhere, etc. etc.) it took us nearly a month before our numbers declined.


----------



## theFOoL (Jun 28, 2020)

*Alabama*


----------



## HTC (Jun 29, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 41912 confirmed infected --- 266 more
- 27205 recovered --- 139 more
- 1568 fatalities --- 4 more
- 378073 suspected cases --- 1888 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... still ... again ... again
- 1498 waiting for test results --- *13 less*
- 31310 under watch from authorities --- 11 more
- 489 hospitalized --- 31 more
- 71 in ICU --- *4 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the *24th consecutive day*. Sizable spike in hospitalized number, though


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## HTC (Jun 30, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 42141 confirmed infected --- 229 more
- 27505 recovered --- 300 more
- 1576 fatalities --- 8 more
- 380476 suspected cases --- 2403 more
- 1178653 tests taken --- 76587 more
- 1454 waiting for test results --- *44 less*
- 31414 under watch from authorities --- 104 more
- 491 hospitalized --- 2 more
- 73 in ICU --- 2 more

Single digit daily death toll for the *25th consecutive day* but "cutting it close: the last time the daily death toll was this much or higher was on June 6th, with nine deaths.

Tests taken was finally updated, but not completely: the 76587 more tests are from 8 days but the previous update was 10 days ago, according to the tests chart @ the official Portuguese Health Site - DGS.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 30, 2020)

Hmmmm... Hospitalization counts went up by +1 yesterday, and +5 today. The critical dates in Maryland were June 12th, the "phase 2 reopening". And June 19th, a further reopening extended to gyms, malls, etc. etc.

The rule of thumb is that ~2 days can be outliers. Day 3 makes a trend however. With that being said, %Positive remains low, and number of cases remain low as well.

---------

Despite the plateauing of hospitalizations, I'm optimistic about this, because %Positive has continued to decline. A degree of random variation is to be expected. It'd be far more worrying if all the numbers were getting worse. But for now, it could still just be a temporary blip.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 30, 2020)

UK update as at 30th June


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 1, 2020)

Hmmm... we now have a trend of +1, +5, and now +9 hospitalizations over the past 3 days.

%Positive continues to decline. I wonder if an especially at-risk group (maybe another retirement community?) got hit with a wave of infections?


----------



## HTC (Jul 1, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 42454 confirmed infected --- 313 more
- 27798 recovered --- 293 more
- 1579 fatalities --- 8 more
- 382818 suspected cases --- 2342 more
- 1190384 tests taken --- 11731 more
- 1450 waiting for test results --- *4 less*
- 31389 under watch from authorities --- *25 less*
- 503 hospitalized --- 12 more
- 79 in ICU --- 6 more

Single digit daily death toll for the *26th consecutive day* but hospitalized and ICU continue their upwards trend


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 2, 2020)

Hospitalizations breaking the +1, +5, and +9 trend over the last three days with -20 today. %Positive increases by negligible 0.04%.

Hard to tell if Maryland is getting better or worse. "Plateau" is probably the best word.


----------



## HTC (Jul 2, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 42782 confirmed infected --- 328 more
- 28097 recovered --- 299 more
- 1587 fatalities --- 8 more
- 384973 suspected cases --- 2155 more
- 1190384 tests taken --- unknown - would not load, and i tried several times
- 1380 waiting for test results --- *70 less*
- 31274 under watch from authorities --- *115 less*
- 510 hospitalized --- 7 more
- 77 in ICU --- *2 less*

Single digit daily death toll for the *27th consecutive day*. Yesterday, by mistake, i said the daily death toll increase was 8: it was in fact 3.

Whoever updates the Portuguese health site has messed up again: not only does the tests taken not load, on the country's map they placed Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region's cases in the center region ...


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## HTC (Jul 3, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

  

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 43156 confirmed infected --- 374 more
- 28424 recovered --- 327 more
- 1598 fatalities --- 11 more
- 386926 suspected cases --- 1953 more
- 1190384 tests taken --- unknown - not available in this report
- 879 waiting for test results --- *501 less*
- 31433 under watch from authorities --- 159 more
- 495 hospitalized --- *15 less*
- 72 in ICU --- *5 less*

Single digit daily death toll reached double digits for the 1st time in 28 days: as i feared, 1st it was the climb in hospitalizations and ICU numbers and now comes the climb in the daily death toll.

Had to resort to have a couple of pics from our situation report with today's numbers because the Portuguese Health Site STILL hasn't been updated, despite the numbers having been released for over two hours now ...

Completely unrelated to the Portuguese situation, *what's with UK's "sudden loss" of nearly 28K cases?* I was updating that chart i made to yesterday's numbers and i had to re-do all of UK's data because it was all messed up. Perhaps @Tatty_One or @the54thvoid can shed some light on the situation

Here's how the chart currently looks (click for full picture):



While Brazil still has one of the worst curves, it's actually India that is doubling it's number of cases the fastest. OTOH, due to it's population VS the other "leaders", it's actually fairing much better.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 4, 2020)

I have no idea, not seen anything in the news, this gives quite a good picture of where the UK is at with England specific stuff too, quite informative, today Cafe's, restaurants, pubs and hairdressers open...…….. waiting for the spikes!









						Covid-19 in the UK
					

Explore the data on coronavirus in the UK.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 4, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> ….. waiting for the spikes!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



LIke the hairstyle? I had one in the eighties....

Up here in Scotty land we've still got restrictions even though it's estimated our incidence is 10x lower than England. Don't think our gyms are opening till late August. Which is unfortunate if true 'cos I'm off on holiday to Spain on the 31st Aug. My boss won't be happy (I be gym guy).


----------



## trparky (Jul 4, 2020)

Ohio has seen a huge spike in COVID-19 cases. Cuyahoga county in North East Ohio is at Level 3 (Level 4 is the highest). Cleveland, which one of the biggest cities in Cuyahoga county, has declared that all citizens are to wear face masks from this point on. Armond Budish, executive of Cuyahoga county, has stated that he's going to be declaring a county-wide mask requirement soon. What the consequences will be of not wearing one is unknown but there's talk about making it a $100 misdemeanor charge with escalating fines if said person continues to defy the requirement.


----------



## HTC (Jul 4, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 43659 confirmed infected --- 483 more
- 28772 recovered --- 348 more
- 1605 fatalities --- 7 more
- 388969 suspected cases --- 2043 more
- 1205593 tests taken --- 15209 more
- 1103 waiting for test results --- 224 more
- 31486 under watch from authorities --- 53 more
- 489 hospitalized --- *6 less*
- 73 in ICU --- 1 more

Portuguese Health Site never did get updated yesterday, which is why i had to resort to the daily situation report (which had almost all the information: no tests taken). It was updated today but, as can be seen on the bottom right part of today's pic, yesterday's hospitalization and ICU numbers are missing.



HTC said:


> Completely unrelated to the Portuguese situation, *what's with UK's "sudden loss" of nearly 28K cases?* I was updating that chart i made to yesterday's numbers and i had to re-do all of UK's data because it was all messed up.



This is what i was referring to:





Notice the spikes go almost up to 9K cases in a day and stay around 5K mark consistently and even had a "negative day", with over -500 cases.





Compare that to after the "revision" where it never reaches 5.6K in a day and the overall difference nears 28K (over 313K VS over 285K). It could have been some more recent day's numbers weren't adding up but it turned out it didn't match up since pretty much the beginning and i had to change the data since February, which i found quite odd TBH.

EDIT

Changed from logarithmic base 2 scale to a linear one, for better visibility.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 4, 2020)

trparky said:


> Ohio has seen a huge spike in COVID-19 cases. Cuyahoga county in North East Ohio is at Level 3 (Level 4 is the highest). Cleveland, which one of the biggest cities in Cuyahoga county, has declared that all citizens are to wear face masks from this point on. Armond Budish, executive of Cuyahoga county, has stated that he's going to be declaring a county-wide mask requirement soon. What the consequences will be of not wearing one is unknown but there's talk about making it a $100 misdemeanor charge with escalating fines if said person continues to defy the requirement.



Masks and no lockdown then? Curious.

Here in NL we're down to a stable trickle of daily cases even with the country mostly reopened for several weeks now - there have been several massed events among those, and mask requirement still exists (non-medical, mind) only in public transport. You don't really see people with one outside of it either, bar some rare exceptions - which I can fully understand by the way; if you have some sort of immune system disorder or weak state, I definitely understand the fear and willingness to mitigate all risk.

The key to stopping the curve is a lockdown of about a month, and then controlled reopening. It will be interesting to see how states fare with just mask enforcement, but I'm not holding my breath tbh... Social distancing alone is much more important to curtail the infection spread once you reopen (or stay open, even). So far the States seem to be all over the place, they're effectively using regional measures for a nationwide problem - that is how Italy failed. The only thing the US has going for it is the immense distance between population hubs.


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## lexluthermiester (Jul 4, 2020)

trparky said:


> What the consequences will be of not wearing one is unknown but there's talk about making it a $100 misdemeanor charge with escalating fines if said person continues to defy the requirement.


Criminal penalties can not be enforced with out proper legislation. Constitutionality of such would be very iffy at best.


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## harm9963 (Jul 4, 2020)

The State of Texas, $250 fine !


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## Tatty_One (Jul 4, 2020)

I think it may vary from State to State, for example the Governor of Massachusetts called a state of emergency which gives him significant additional powers, whether enforcement of any form of emergency law is included I do not know, I would assume so in some cases at least and these emergency laws can override existing law ...…….



			The Governor Declared A State Of Emergency. What Does That Mean?


----------



## HTC (Jul 4, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I think it may vary from State to State, for example the Governor of Massachusetts called *a state of emergency which gives him significant additional powers*, whether enforcement of any form of emergency law is included I do not know, I would assume so in some cases at least and these emergency laws can override existing law ...…….
> 
> 
> 
> The Governor Declared A State Of Emergency. What Does That Mean?


This happened in Portugal: when we went in to "Emergency State", our Government was given powers it doesn't normally have and certain steps were taken because of it. Once we left "Emergency State" in to "Calamity State", it became illegal to continue some of the steps taken to curb our infection problem.

An example: the Government barred people from crossing counties for certain periods, except people specifically authorized to do so, and they were giving non-compliant people fines. This became illegal once we left "Emergency State".


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 4, 2020)

HTC said:


> This happened in Portugal: when we went in to "Emergency State", our Government was given powers it doesn't normally have and certain steps were taken because of it. Once we left "Emergency State" in to "Calamity State", it became illegal to continue some of the steps taken to curb our infection problem.
> 
> An example: the Government barred people from crossing counties for certain periods, except people specifically authorized to do so, and they were giving non-compliant people fines. This became illegal once we left "Emergency State".


We had/have the same, under our Emergency powers act laws can be written to support the emergency, for example it is mandatory to use face coverings on public transport, however these actions still require a majority vote in our House of Commons, the only time anything does not need to go for a vote is when the powers are invoked because war is declared.


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## tabascosauz (Jul 5, 2020)

Straight into 2-week+ quarantine I go.  I went to see two friends today, and despite all the obsessive precautions and cleaning I do and the fact that I really haven't actually gone outside to anywhere other than straight to my parents' houses and back for *the past 8 months *due to other reasons, a friend's friend's friend tested positive after arriving at a foreign airport (the fact that he went travelling abroad for non-family reasons is already ????????). The person in question was in close contact last week with the other friend (who I do happen to know), who in turn met up with my close friend on Wednesday, and we met up today but we only found out after we had all gone home.

All this is just really frustrating, because I know full well that Canada's numbers don't nearly reflect the reality on the streets, yet Vancouverites love to swear by the "official scientific numbers" given to them. That's not to discredit the scientific and medical communities, which have done an admirable job, but the fact that they are *still testing only the severely sick* who need to go to the hospital, should tell us all that our official numbers only exist for the sake of having something to refer to. 

At this rate, I'm going to spend a whole 12 months entirely cooped up indoors. I hope that for me and my friends (who I haven't seen for pretty much that aforementioned period), this is only going to turn out to be an inconvenience of staying at home.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 5, 2020)

HTC said:


> This happened in Portugal: when we went in to "Emergency State", our Government was given powers it doesn't normally have and certain steps were taken because of it. Once we left "Emergency State" in to "Calamity State", it became illegal to continue some of the steps taken to curb our infection problem.
> 
> An example: the Government barred people from crossing counties for certain periods, except people specifically authorized to do so, and they were giving non-compliant people fines. This became illegal once we left "Emergency State".



Yeah, its slowly becoming clear over here that the 'Covid fines' people got for grouping up with more than two people are not going to hold in court, because quite simply there is no law that supports them anywhere. It did do its job though, people listened.

Recently the gov tried to push the emergency measures into legislation and quickly got stopped by a mass of concerns and senate itself. The whole thing is a little bit in limbo right now. Its interesting to see how this all works in practice. Encouraging, too to see how those checks and balances are working to protect us from sudden, radical changes.


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## HTC (Jul 5, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 43897 confirmed infected --- 238 more
- 29017 recovered --- 245 more
- 1614 fatalities --- 9 more
- 390400 suspected cases --- 2043 more
- 1205593 tests taken --- no change - last update June 30, according to tests taken chart
- 1167 waiting for test results --- 64 more
- 31457 under watch from authorities --- *29 less*
- 504 hospitalized --- 15 more
- 73 in ICU --- no change

Portuguese Health Site was updated (the missing day). Out of the last 30 days, we had single digit daily death toll in 29 of them, with only 2 days ago having had it with 2 digits.

Something that is giving me cause for concern: apparently the numbers "on the field" for the various counties aren't matching the reported numbers, or so claim some hospital sources: if this is true, i *HOPE* it's corrected as soon as possible and those responsible are *JAILED* because of it, and for quite some time too. This is *too important a subject* to falsify data.


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## Tatty_One (Jul 5, 2020)

As of today there have been a further 22 deaths and 516 new infections in the UK, although it being the weekend it is often lower due to data capture delays.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 5, 2020)

tabascosauz said:


> Straight into 2-week+ quarantine I go.  I went to see two friends today, and despite all the obsessive precautions and cleaning I do and the fact that I really haven't actually gone outside to anywhere other than straight to my parents' houses and back for *the past 8 months *due to other reasons, a friend's friend's friend tested positive after arriving at a foreign airport (the fact that he went travelling abroad for non-family reasons is already ????????). The person in question was in close contact last week with the other friend (who I do happen to know), who in turn met up with my close friend on Wednesday, and we met up today but we only found out after we had all gone home.
> 
> All this is just really frustrating, because I know full well that Canada's numbers don't nearly reflect the reality on the streets, yet Vancouverites love to swear by the "official scientific numbers" given to them. That's not to discredit the scientific and medical communities, which have done an admirable job, but the fact that they are *still testing only the severely sick* who need to go to the hospital, should tell us all that our official numbers only exist for the sake of having something to refer to.
> 
> At this rate, I'm going to spend a whole 12 months entirely cooped up indoors. I hope that for me and my friends (who I haven't seen for pretty much that aforementioned period), this is only going to turn out to be an inconvenience of staying at home.



The good news is that hospitalization numbers should be well reported as long as your hospital system remains functional. Canada probably still has plenty of hospital space and therefore tracking your hospital numbers will be the best measure of your locality.

As I've said throughout this thread: the actual COVID cases number is a terrible measurement. Instead, focus your attention on %Positive, hospitalizations, and #Deaths.

Note: Because Houston, Texas is at over 80% hospital capacity, their hospitalization numbers are no longer valid (Doctors start to turn away COVID19 patients, saving room for the sickest of patients). The argument is similar to your "testing" problem: once you run out of resources, the statistic is basically invalid. But as long as hospitals are below capacity, you should track hospitalization numbers as the #1 reliable statistic for your locality.


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## HTC (Jul 6, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 44129 confirmed infected --- 232 more
- 29166 recovered --- 149 more
- 1620 fatalities --- 6 more
- 391651 suspected cases --- 1251 more
- 1205593 tests taken --- no change - last update June 30, according to tests taken chart
- 1182 waiting for test results --- 15 more
- 31485 under watch from authorities --- 28 more
- 513 hospitalized --- 9 more
- 74 in ICU --- 1 more

A local retirement home has had 25 cases discovered between residents and staff: for now, all without symptoms but, due to the resident's average age, that will likely not last for long


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## harm9963 (Jul 6, 2020)

New mutated strain of coronavirus spreads faster but may not be more severe, Baylor College of Medicine doctor says
					

Researchers at Baylor College of Medicine said a new mutated strain of coronavirus may spread more easily but does not appear to be any more severe.




					www.click2houston.com
				











						Several Texas cities worry hospitals may run out of beds in two weeks or sooner
					

Local officials and experts in Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Fort Worth have expressed concerns in recent days that increasing coronavirus hospitalizations could overwhelm their intensive care capacities, with some saying it could happen in less than two weeks.




					www.click2houston.com


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## Tatty_One (Jul 6, 2020)

A further 352 people tested positive in the UK in the last 24 hours along with a further 16 fatalities.


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## HTC (Jul 6, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> New mutated strain of coronavirus spreads faster but may not be more severe, Baylor College of Medicine doctor says
> 
> 
> Researchers at Baylor College of Medicine said a new mutated strain of coronavirus may spread more easily but does not appear to be any more severe.
> ...


If they haven't yet, they better start preparing extra hospital like environments because i wouldn't be surprised if it took LESS TIME than that (2nd link title).



Tatty_One said:


> A further 352 people tested positive in the UK in the last 24 hours along with a further 16 fatalities.


UK's doing as well if not better than Portugal, despite having over 6.5 times our population: UK started poorly but really turned things around.


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## Tatty_One (Jul 6, 2020)

HTC said:


> If they haven't yet, they better start preparing extra hospital like environments because i wouldn't be surprised if it took LESS TIME than that (2nd link title).
> 
> 
> UK's doing as well if not better than Portugal, despite having over 6.5 times our population: UK started poorly but really turned things around.


I would hope so but as I said, numbers often dip Saturday - Monday, if they don't spike upwards significantly in tomorrows reporting I will agree with you   We are now pretty much out of lockdown, apart from the most vulnerable who have to wait until next month to have any degree of freedom and the odd sector that has not been allowed to return yet such as Swimming pools and Gym's, pretty much everything else is open for business.  We are slowly getting better at data management and dissemination in as much as we have the information to see what's happening at the very local levels with potential spike's and close them down, our first was the city of Leicester at the weekend who went back into full lockdown for 2 weeks because the previous week saw 4 times the national average in people per population infections.

For me the jury is still out, as I have said before, generally Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have done better than England, it's easy to say they managed the outbreak more effectively and they did but in context, England has almost 90% of the UK's population and several times the population density.  In the early days back in February & March seeing what Italy was going through I thought it cannot be that bad for us, then someone said to me it will be worse because we have the greatest population density in Western Europe, France is probably our closest neighbour in terms of population and they have done fairly well and most likely managed it better than us, however when you look more closely and see that France, with a similar population has almost twice the land mass and therefore around only 55% of our population density it almost led me to despair back in April.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 6, 2020)

HTC said:


> If they haven't yet, they better start preparing extra hospital like environments because i wouldn't be surprised if it took LESS TIME than that (2nd link title).



Obviously, hospital capacity should be increased ASAP. But due to the nature of exponential growth, any increase in capacity will be quickly swamped unless the disease is under control. Back in March, the virus grew at a rate of +30% infections per day. Increasing your hospital capacity by 100% would only buy you 3 more days of exponential growth.

Now, the good news for Texas is that COVID19 is spreading slower than it once did. Perhaps a number of the population is taking precautions, or maybe the summer really is slowing the virus down... or maybe the rural nature of Texas... Whatever the reason, COVID19 is absolutely slower than March.









						Total TMC Covid-19 Hospitalizations - Texas Medical Center
					

Located in the heart of Houston, Texas Medical Center campus is home to leaders in research, medicine, and innovation in healthcare.




					www.tmc.edu
				




3-days starting from 6/23: 790 Hospitalizations
3-days starting from 6/30: 1013 Hospitalizations

That's a 28% increase every week or a daily increase of only 3.6% (1/10th the rate-of-increase compared to New York City in March).

------------

Under these conditions, +100% hospital capacity buys 19 days of 3.6% growth. (log(2.0) / log(1.036) ==  19 days), just a rough estimate or so. The curve must be controlled. The problem isn't hospital capacity per se... its exponential growth. Under any exponential growth situation, hospital capacity becomes swamped in a matter of weeks or days... no matter how much hospital capacity you have. The effective measures are those that prevent exponential growth (ie: Lockdowns, masks ordinances, social distancing)


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## Tatty_One (Jul 6, 2020)

We faced a similar dilemma in late March, early April so we built a couple of 4000 bed Super Hospitals in 2 weeks within existing large buildings using the military for Logistical support, one a conference centre, the other an exhibition centre but both hardly got used in the end but are now starting to take some elective patients to get Cancer treatments going again but I appreciate we have a very different healthcare system.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 6, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> We faced a similar dilemma in late March, early April so we built a couple of 4000 bed Super Hospitals in 2 weeks within existing large buildings using the military for Logistical support, one a conference centre, the other an exhibition centre but both hardly got used in the end but are now starting to take some elective patients to get Cancer treatments going again but I appreciate we have a very different healthcare system.



Building out temporary capacity is certainly happening:









						Dallas convention center will get Texas’ first pop-up hospital for coronavirus
					

AUSTIN — The Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center in downtown Dallas will be the site of Texas’ first pop-up hospital to treat coronavirus patients, Gov....



					www.dallasnews.com
				











						Some Texas cities revive plans to add hospital bed capacity at convention centers if coronavirus cases climb
					

“The setting will be similar to a Medical-Surgical Unit with a capability of treating critical care patients," reads a description for a 100-bed site in Austin, according to an email obtained by The Texas Tribune.




					www.texastribune.org
				




Etc. etc. But hospital capacity is only a temporary solution, that at best, buys you only a few weeks of exponential growth.

Case in point: 4000 beds would be filled up in 10-days (Texas is currently getting +400 hospitalizations/day). And if the growth continues (+3% a day or so), we're looking at 500/day hospitalizations next week, and 650/day hospitalizations two weeks from now. Even a 4000-bed temporary super-hospital would fill up almost immediately after getting set up. Policies must be implemented that reverses the growth. This simply isn't a problem that can be solved by building capacity... (although capacity helps... you can see it fills up really quickly).

To "win by building", the community has to build a 4000-bed temporary hospital this week. Then next week they build a 5000-bed temporary hospital. Then a 6500 bed temporary hospital the week after that. (etc. etc.). Then a 8500 temporary hospital the week after that. Exponentially growing hospital capacity is obviously infeasible. As such, any hospital bed increase needs to be seen as a temporary measure, its a losing strategy (but one that buys time for the community to react).

--------

EDIT: I personally calculated a 3.6% growth rate. But the Texas Medical Center calculated a 6.9% growth rate: https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/

So the 400 / day hospitalizations will become 638/day next week, 1018/day the week after that, and then 1624/day if the trend continues. A growth problem is truly scary, its infeasible to keep up with that kind of growth.


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## HTC (Jul 6, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> [...]
> Under these conditions, +100% hospital capacity buys 19 days of 3.6% growth. (log(2.0) / log(1.036) ==  19 days), just a rough estimate or so. The curve must be controlled. The problem isn't hospital capacity per se... its exponential growth. Under any exponential growth situation, hospital capacity becomes swamped in a matter of weeks or days... no matter how much hospital capacity you have. The effective measures are those that prevent exponential growth (ie: Lockdowns, masks ordinances, social distancing)


But better have it in place and not need it than need it and not have it: the consequences of the latter will be REALLY DIRE, while the consequences of the former are just wasted time and money.


Tatty_One said:


> We faced a similar dilemma in late March, early April so we built a couple of 4000 bed Super Hospitals in 2 weeks within existing large buildings using the military for Logistical support, one a conference centre, the other an exhibition centre but both hardly got used in the end but are now starting to take some elective patients to get Cancer treatments going again but I appreciate we have a very different healthcare system.


That's because UK "got their sh1t together".


dragontamer5788 said:


> [...]
> *Etc. etc. But hospital capacity is only a temporary solution, that at best, buys you only a few weeks of exponential growth.*
> [...]
> EDIT: I personally calculated a 3.6% growth rate. But the Texas Medical Center calculated a 6.9% growth rate: https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/
> So the 400 / day hospitalizations will become 638/day next week, 1018/day the week after that, and then 1624/day if the trend continues. *A growth problem is truly scary, its infeasible to keep up with that kind of growth.*


That may be enough time to turn things around, so long as people act responsibly and follow expert guidelines as best they can. Otherwise, you're right and the consequences ...


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 6, 2020)

That seems like a lot of hospitalisations, are hospitals ONLY taking those with the severest of cases that require or are highly likely to require oxygen?  Over here only the most severe cases were even allowed near a hospital...… we had a screening system that could be accessed by telephone or online, both had a set of diagnostics that dependent on responses determined if a Doctor initially spoke to you and then arranged if necessary admission.  Obviously I don't know the density of hospitals in Texas that obviously determine capacity.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 6, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> That seems like a lot of hospitalisations, are hospitals ONLY taking those with the severest of cases that require or are highly likely to require oxygen?  Over here only the most severe cases were even allowed near a hospital...… we had a screening system that could be accessed by telephone or online, both had a set of diagnostics that dependent on responses determined if a Doctor initially spoke to you and then arranged if necessary admission.  Obviously I don't know the density of hospitals in Texas that obviously determine capacity.



I don't live in Texas, those kinds of details would definitely vary between my state and their state. But once again: differences in definitions don't "really" matter in the great scheme of things. What matters is the growth curve. If you think that Texas is admitting say, 50% too many patients, then that's only a difference of log(1.5) / log(1.069) == 6 days of growth.

What matters is having a *consistent* measurement, so that we can track the disease in each location using their own, internally consistent metrics.

--------

Washington Post reports that Texas had + 47,546 cases this past *week*. This correlates to 2,523 hospitalizations (according to https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/), or a hospitalization rate of 5ish%. (I can't really divide the numbers, because they're from two different sources).

So Texas is hospitalizing roughly ~5% of the cases that are currently being detected.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/
		


EDIT: Ah shoot, I made an error. Lemme rerun the numbers. I'll edit in the correct results in a bit.

---------

Okay, try#2: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Texas seems to link to this page, so I hope their statistics are consistent with the hospitalizations.

+47546 cases this past week. Huh... so it matches Washington Post's data (I guess Washington Post just took it from this website). So yeah, I guess my numbers were correct: ~5% of Texas COVID19 cases (for the week of 6/29 through 7/6) are resulting in hospitalizations. This isn't the best measurement of how sick people get before getting hospitalized... but its the best statistic I could think of with the available data.


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## HTC (Jul 7, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 44416 confirmed infected --- 287 more
- 29445 recovered --- 279 more
- 1629 fatalities --- 9 more
- 394134 suspected cases --- 2483 more
- 1271425 tests taken --- 65832 more
- 1308 waiting for test results --- 126 more
- 33134 under watch from authorities --- 1649 more
- 511 hospitalized --- *2 less*
- 76 in ICU --- 2 more

Tests taken number was updated today but, according to the pic below (evolution of daily tests taken), it's actually from 2 days ago ...


----------



## HTC (Jul 8, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 44859 confirmed infected --- 443 more
- 29714 recovered --- 269 more
- 1631 fatalities --- 2 more
- 396521 suspected cases --- 2387 more
- 1271425 tests taken --- no change
- 1496 waiting for test results --- 188 more
- 33225 under watch from authorities --- 91 more
- 512 hospitalized --- 1 more
- 74 in ICU --- *2 less*


----------



## HTC (Jul 9, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 45277 confirmed infected --- 418 more
- 30049 recovered --- 335 more
- 1644 fatalities --- 13 more
- 398922 suspected cases --- 2471 more
- 1299594 tests taken --- 28099 more - last updated July 7th
- 1480 waiting for test results --- *16 less*
- 34102 under watch from authorities --- 877 more
- 487 hospitalized --- *25 less*
- 73 in ICU --- *1 less*

Several "milestones":
1 - reached 45K cases
2 - reached 30K recovered
3 - highest daily fatality number since June 1st
4 - our Lisbon and Tejo River valley has had it's number of small outbreaks quadruple in the last 2 weeks, and the rest of the country also had it's number of small outbreaks increase, though  nowhere near as much

The following is our daily case evolution (click for full picture):



As can be seen, it's "slow growing" but it's growing


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 9, 2020)

The good news for the UK (although I would not have thought of this as good at the time of outbreak) is that we appear to be consistently down to double digits in fatalities and lowering week on week, it seemed like it took the whole of June when we started easing to move from 200 per day to 100 and now below, it's still not great, it also appears that we are now consistently down to around 500 new infections per day which I think is significant considering the population and density.

On a lighter note, forgive the pun (if you read the link) but it seems that crap is not always bad...………...





__





						Work begins on UK system for estimating COVID-19 cases from wastewater | UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
					

Scientists will develop a standardised UK-wide system for detecting coronavirus in wastewater, in order to provide an early warning of future outbreaks and reduce reliance on costly testing of large populations.The majority of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes the COVID-19...




					www.ceh.ac.uk


----------



## HTC (Jul 9, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> The good news for the UK (although I would not have thought of this as good at the time of outbreak) is that *we appear to be consistently down to double digits in fatalities and lowering week on week, it seemed like it took the whole of June when we started easing to move from 200 per day to 100 and now below*, it's still not great, it also appears that we are now consistently down to around 500 new infections per day which I think is significant considering the population and density.
> 
> On a lighter note, forgive the pun (if you read the link) but it seems that crap is not always bad...………...
> 
> ...



It takes a long time between the hospitalizations spikes and daily death toll spikes and, perhaps longer still, to "go the other way" and reduce the daily death toll numbers, just like it did in Italy and Spain.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 10, 2020)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/09/coronavirus-live-updates-us/#link-XBYKZ4PAZBGPVPAP7HQP5D4ZPM
		


TSA screening folks, the ones responsible for checking for weapons (and tubes of toothpaste, and potentially explosive vaping batteries) person-to-person at airports is reporting a huge uptick in TSA COVID19 cases. I'm not really surprised, given that the TSA's job is basically the opposite of social distancing: patdowns and lots of interactions with the public. Just another unfortunate job in these trying times.

-------

Maryland has reached a plateau.





Our statistics are no longer improving, and haven't for around a week now. With COVID19 growing significantly in other parts of the country, I think a plateau is relatively good news.

The USA has porous boarders. A COVID19 uptick in one part of the country will inevitably spread. Despite the large distance between Florida and Maryland, we're connected by highways (I-95), railroads, family, friends, and business. Its inevitable for Florida's uptick to affect us.


----------



## HTC (Jul 10, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 45679 confirmed infected --- 402 more
- 30350 recovered --- 301 more
- 1646 fatalities --- 2 more
- 401296 suspected cases --- 2374 more
- 1316425 tests taken --- 16831 more - last updated July 8th
- 1626 waiting for test results --- 146 more
- 34082 under watch from authorities --- *20 less*
- 471 hospitalized --- *16 less*
- 66 in ICU --- *7 less*

Sharp decline in hospitalized for the 2nd day in a row but it's a bit early to call it "a trend".

On a personal note, yesterday i woke up with a sore throat and a bit of a cough. 1st thing i did was check my temperature and it was only 36.2ºC but, out of concern, i called our National Health hotline, explaining my symptoms and was advised to skip work, purchase a medication for the cough and quarantine myself, which i did. Today, i got instructions for taking the COVID-19 test and took it around 4 and a half hours ago: the results should be known in 1 to 3 days.

Hopefully it won't be this virus and i'm just overreacting, but this virus isn't something one can afford to NOT overreact about so, better safe than sorry.


----------



## HTC (Jul 11, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 46221 confirmed infected --- 542 more
- 30655 recovered --- 305 more
- 1654 fatalities --- 8 more
- 403748 suspected cases --- 2452 more
- 1316425 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 8th
- 1705 waiting for test results --- 79 more
- 34303 under watch from authorities --- 221 m,ore
- 459 hospitalized --- *12 less*
- 68 in ICU --- 2 more

A decline in hospitalized for the 3rd day in a row but it's a bit early to call it "a trend". Highest number of daily cases since May 8th, though.

On a personal note, my COVID-19 test result came back negative.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 12, 2020)

*Texas shatters daily record with 10,351 new coronavirus cases!








						Texas shatters daily record with 10,351 new coronavirus cases
					

Texas has surpassed 10,000 new coronavirus cases in a single day for the second time this week.




					abc13.com
				



**Personally know two people who were tested here in  HOUSTON **Texas** ,negative results for both, one ended up in the Hospital a month later, she was **positive !*


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 12, 2020)

I've not been as active here, sort of seeing what happens. Looking to use the US info as a barometer for 'relaxed' conditions (a generalisation as I know it varies state to state). The uptick in daily cases might be starting to show in deaths. 

The graph has a new tail at the end, and that's working on a 7-day average, not a daily blip. I think this is the roller-coaster we can all expect until there's a vaccine, or, unless we have strict mask rules for all close proximity places.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 12, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I've not been as active here, sort of seeing what happens. Looking to use the US info as a barometer for 'relaxed' conditions (a generalisation as I know it varies state to state). The uptick in daily cases might be starting to show in deaths.
> 
> The graph has a new tail at the end, and that's working on a 7-day average, not a daily blip. I think this is the roller-coaster we can all expect until there's a vaccine, or, unless we have strict mask rules for all close proximity places.
> 
> View attachment 161958



I remember getting in argument with my father a few months back when CDC said you don't need masks, I said Dad use basic logic here... Unfortunately, we don't have the top down leadership needed in the USA to enforce masks be worn in busy places, which will result in a whack a mole situation until a good vaccine arrives, emphasis on good. We wasted 4 trillion dollars and are back right where we started, could have all been _and_ could be avoided if we just enforced masks from top down for all 50 states, no one exempt.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 12, 2020)

It's not a US problem alone. In the UK, English mask wearing in stores isn't mandatory. In Scotland, it is (we have a devolved government with limited judicial powers). I've got my skull and crossbones neck-gater ready.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 12, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> I remember getting in argument with my father a few months back when CDC said you don't need masks, I said Dad use basic logic here... Unfortunately, we don't have the top down leadership needed in the USA to enforce masks be worn in busy places, which will result in a whack a mole situation until a good vaccine arrives, emphasis on good. We wasted 4 trillion dollars and are back right where we started, could have all been _and_ could be avoided if we just enforced masks from top down for all 50 states, no one exempt.



Yes pandemics are prevented by masks Your dad makes more sense than you realize. The overwhelming evidence is still that mask usage has no measurable effect in the public space. The only measurable effects in killing the outbreaks were lockdowns and social distancing. This wont change either and yes, its a whack a mole situation, what else did you expect? To solve this with 3 dollar masks?


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 12, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Yes pandemics are prevented by masks Your dad makes more sense than you realize. The overwhelming evidence is still that mask usage has no measurable effect in the public space. The only measurable effects in killing the outbreaks were lockdowns and social distancing. This wont change either and yes, its a whack a mole situation, what else did you expect? To solve this with 3 dollar masks?



Masks are to be used as an *additional measure* - at least here in Scotland, thats been the message. Masks in enclosed areas where social distancing is trickier. But even then, very close proximity transmission will likely occur with a 'face-covering'. But let's not make this about "masks = awesome" again. I don't think anybody's saying that. And again, masks means any face covering.

They *vastly reduce* the travel distance of expired droplets (the airborne source). Which can minimise risk in public spaces.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1276629360212979712


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 12, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Yes pandemics are prevented by masks Your dad makes more sense than you realize. The overwhelming evidence is still that mask usage has no measurable effect in the public space. The only measurable effects in killing the outbreaks were lockdowns and social distancing. This wont change either and yes, its a whack a mole situation, what else did you expect? To solve this with 3 dollar masks?



Believe what you will. I wish I was in New Zealand personally.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 12, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Masks are to be used as an *additional measure* - at least here in Scotland, thats been the message. Masks in enclosed areas where social distancing is trickier. But even then, very close proximity transmission will likely occur with a 'face-covering'. But let's not make this about "masks = awesome" again. I don't think anybody's saying that. And again, masks means any face covering.
> 
> They *vastly reduce* the travel distance of expired droplets (the airborne source). Which can minimise risk in public spaces.
> 
> ...



Minimise, unquantified entirely. Its a case of grasping anything you can that might help, lets please call it that, instead of overinflating what is essentially placebo given all the variables in play.

Factual discussion in this topic. Not some twisted social media fueled madness please.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 12, 2020)

It appears whatever I say you'll disagree. And I'm not grasping at anything. Regardless, I'll not waste my time searching for the various scholarly articles on the efficacy of masks to reduce airborne particles. Which as I clearly stated, is just one vector.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 12, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> It appears whatever I say you'll disagree. And I'm not grasping at anything. Regardless, I'll not waste my time searching for the various scholarly articles on the efficacy of masks to reduce airborne particles. Which as I clearly stated, is just one vector.



It's the main way to keep people safe. Look at the nations that beat the virus, masks enforced from the top down. Vietnam, South Korea, China, most of Asia basically beat it just because masks are so enforced there.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 12, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Personally know two people who were tested here in  HOUSTON Texas ,negative results for both, one ended up in the Hospital a month later, she was positive !



That's a rare, and unlucky, situation. It should be noted that none of these tests are perfect. There's always a chance of false-positives (testing positive, but not having the virus), and false-negatives (testing negative, but having the virus). Furthermore, its virtually impossible to even measure false-positive and false-negative rates directly.

What is measured instead, is sensitivity and selectivity (aka: true positives and true negatives). This is tested by sending samples to "gold standard" tests (extremely expensive RNA / DNA machines). A random set of tests are "gold standard" tested. In effect, we have a "test for the test" to try and determine the true-positive and true-negative rates. Then we use fancy math and assumptions to get estimates for false-positive and false-negative rates (but that will always be an estimate... a "derived" result with a degree of guesswork).

"Fortunately" (and I say that ironically), the more "true positives" that exist in an area, the more accurate these tests become. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

----------

This is why we need many, many tests all across the country. A 2nd, or 3rd result, would greatly improve the accuracy of any result we get. "Batched tests", where we throw ~10 people into one test (to make that test 10x cheaper) could provide a 2nd or 3rd result at much cheaper costs.



Vayra86 said:


> Yes pandemics are prevented by masks Your dad makes more sense than you realize. The overwhelming evidence is still that mask usage has no measurable effect in the public space. The only measurable effects in killing the outbreaks were lockdowns and social distancing. This wont change either and yes, its a whack a mole situation, what else did you expect? To solve this with 3 dollar masks?



Doctors and nurses use N95 masks to protect themselves (and surgical masks to protect others). Its obvious that masks work, despite only being 95% effective. (N95 only blocks 95% of 0.3um particles). Surgical masks don't even have a rating, they're loose fitting and let lots of air out. But surgical masks are still best sanitization practice.

Masks help. Doctors and nurses still get sick of course, but at much reduced rates. We still need to go to grocery stores, we still need to go to work sometimes (even white-collar jobs need to go into the office when telework stops working. IE: Laptop broke and needs to be diagnosed). Under these conditions where social-distancing is impossible, we use masks to prevent the spread. Blue-collar jobs (ie: Amazon Warehouse workers) must go to work and need protection.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 12, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> That's a rare, and unlucky, situation. It should be noted that none of these tests are perfect. There's always a chance of false-positives (testing positive, but not having the virus), and false-negatives (testing negative, but having the virus). Furthermore, its virtually impossible to even measure false-positive and false-negative rates directly.
> 
> What is measured instead, is sensitivity and selectivity (aka: true positives and true negatives). This is tested by sending samples to "gold standard" tests (extremely expensive RNA / DNA machines). A random set of tests are "gold standard" tested. In effect, we have a "test for the test" to try and determine the true-positive and true-negative rates. Then we use fancy math and assumptions to get estimates for false-positive and false-negative rates (but that will always be an estimate... a "derived" result with a degree of guesswork).
> 
> ...



Nuance applies. Masks MIGHT help and I will not deny that. But there is not a single country in the world where mask usage has had a major or quantifiable (!!!) reduction of spread ot even reduction of the R number. If you can find one Im all ears. Even in all the places where it flares up again (note: SPREAD, not individual infection in high risk areas such as hospitals when working with known cases), the inmeduate and right response that does have evidence of effect, is local lockdown, contact tracing and culling it right then and there.

You might think otherwise but ever since the pandemic begun the numbers simply dont lie. Irrespective of masks, it spreads just as easily as it always has and will keep doing.

So yes. Whack a mole it is and everything else is pretty much irrelevant despite what you might feel or think.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 12, 2020)

> If you can find one Im all ears







We keep going in circles. You claim there's no evidence, I point out the evidence, and then you ignore it.

------------

The early viral image is confirmed with further details here in the USA.





Here's the infection rate across the most infected states in USA. The states that were lax with mask laws are the ones that have the highest infection rates right now. The states that used masks have had their COVID19 infections drop.

This graph comes from Washington Post, which is updated daily. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_rhp__hp-top-table-main_gfx-virus-tracker:homepage/story-ans . The image is today's (7/12) set of statistics.

---------

Every measure stacks *multiplicatively*. Lockdowns are a multiplicative decay in virus reproduction. Masks are a multiplicative decay. Given how cheap, low-effort, and effective masks are, they are a no-brainer. No matter what situation your country is in (be it in the early stages of lockdown, or the late stages where things are opening back up), masks will help out.


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## harm9963 (Jul 12, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> That's a rare, and unlucky, situation. It should be noted that none of these tests are perfect. There's always a chance of false-positives (testing positive, but not having the virus), and false-negatives (testing negative, but having the virus). Furthermore, its virtually impossible to even measure false-positive and false-negative rates directly.
> 
> What is measured instead, is sensitivity and selectivity (aka: true positives and true negatives). This is tested by sending samples to "gold standard" tests (extremely expensive RNA / DNA machines). A random set of tests are "gold standard" tested. In effect, we have a "test for the test" to try and determine the true-positive and true-negative rates. Then we use fancy math and assumptions to get estimates for false-positive and false-negative rates (but that will always be an estimate... a "derived" result with a degree of guesswork).
> 
> ...


How do you know its rare .
Using the CDC-developed diagnostic test, a negative result means that the virus that causes COVID-19 was not found in the person’s sample. In the early stages of infection, it is possible the virus will not be detected.


----------



## HTC (Jul 12, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 46512 confirmed infected --- 291 more
- 30907 recovered --- 252 more
- 1660 fatalities --- 6 more
- 405110 suspected cases --- 1362 more
- 1316425 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 8th
- 1638 waiting for test results --- 67 more
- 34512 under watch from authorities --- 209 more
- 462 hospitalized --- 3 more
- 64 in ICU --- *4 less*

On a personal note, despite my COVID-19 test result coming back negative, i'm still in quarantine @ least until July 22nd. I suppose this is in the off chance my result is actually a false negative, but i'm not sure. Got a call this morning by a doctor to follow up on my situation and gave me instructions on how to proceed, including regarding my workplace, and will continue to get these throughout the quarantine period. My cough eased a bit, though i still have a sore throat but, so far, no fever and no other symptoms.



harm9963 said:


> *Texas shatters daily record with 10,351 new coronavirus cases!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You do know there's the possibility that lady that went to the hospital later was negative @ the time she tested the virus and, @ a later date, contracted the virus, right?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 12, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> How do you know its rare .
> Using the CDC-developed diagnostic test, a negative result means that the virus that causes COVID-19 was not found in the person’s sample.



Because the sensitivity and specificity of many of these tests are well tested and published.

EDIT: Woops, I linked an antibody test. Silly me. I'll try to do a better job reading next time.



> In the early stages of infection, it is possible the virus will not be detected.



That's true. The sensitivity drops down to only 60% if in the early days (day 1 through 5) for a lot of these tests. The later stage you are, the better sensitivity gets. In the USA, most people get tests *after* symptoms develop, which means they're on day 5-10 or later. So I'd expect  the 80+% sensitivity (at least, with Vitros's test).

EDIT: woops, I made a few mistakes. I'll edit out the wrong information and edit in correct ones soon...

EDIT2: Jeez, another antibody test. Seems like most of these are antibody tests...

---------

Hmmm... now that I think of it... what you say is absolutely true for IgG antibody tests. Antibodies are created when your body starts to fight off the virus... and it seems like many tests are IgG tests (and therefore only effective once the antibodies are created).

Molecular tests actually test for the virus RNA itself.  Something like: https://www.fda.gov/media/136525/download

The sensitivity of this molecular test is 95% (19/20 cases caught, with a concentration of 125 genomes / mL)





So it really depends on the test you get... and now that I think of it, there are many different tests being deployed to different locations.

--------

If everything is going right, we *should* be using anti-body tests to test for "Who got sick from COVID19". We can use antibody tests to see how far the virus has spread already (the antibodies remain in our blood for months, at least. So its a great way to track the disease after-the-fact).

I would hope that we're using molecular tests for people suspected of COVID19. An antibody test is kind of worthless: the body is already fighting the disease and generating chemicals that would kill the virus. It takes too long for antibodies to be made after infection, so its not really useful as a diagnostic test...

But given how many "mistakes" are being made right now. I can bet that some places are using an antibody test as a diagnostic test.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 12, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 161993
> 
> We keep going in circles. You claim there's no evidence, I point out the evidence, and then you ignore it.
> 
> ...



A badly drawn graph and some circles plus some tally up of states (in the US of all places... do look abroad, Im living in a country that has this under control with zero masks involved  ) are not evidence in any field of science that I know of.

So yes we go in circles because you keep regurgitating flawed sources that have passed and gone months ago... so far, none of what you have shown is valid in any way shape or form. The only right response is to take note and indeed ignore it. That goes for 99,9% of what social media feeds you btw, which is where that pic originated from. A random nobody. Source check would be good, no? I kinda knew that specific pic was going to fly by again. 

Ill reiterate. - not once was mask usage any contributor to controlling this here in NL - nor in Italy, or Spain. Curves are flattened with lockdowns and it is exactly that which even those States are doing that you mention. Time to step into reality... but that seems ptoblematic overseas - not just in the US but also, for example, Brazil.

So far you guys aint done with this yet in the slightest, but in the EU we did manage controlling it without widespread mask enforcement - heck, we didnt even have any for quite awhile. How is that for evidence?


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 12, 2020)

On April 30th, the last day of our lockdown in my county, we had 285 cases including 8 deaths.  As of yesterday, we have 3369 cases and 29 deaths.  About 11 times the number of cases with about less than 4 times the number of deaths.  While cases have skyrockets, this applies to the state as well, the deaths and hospitalizations have not. 

That state of Florida had 33,690 cases and 1268 deaths as of April 30th. As of yesterday, 270,000+ and 4,241 deaths.  About 8 times more cases and less than 4 times the amount of deaths.

Either treatments are better or ... ?

I have also read that the CDC counts antibody and rna positives as new cases in reporting numbers.  That seems a little disingenuous.

Also, consider this:

New York and New Jersey were once the epicenters of the disease.  Now some people say that Florida is the epicenter.  We have tons of travel at our airports here between NY and NJ.  Our cases have been skyrocketing while NY and NJ are not.  Why is this?  Is everyone in NY and NJ carrying antibodies?  Absolutely not.



lexluthermiester said:


> Criminal penalties can not be enforced with out proper legislation. Constitutionality of such would be very iffy at best.



While I disagree with the rule in general, I agree with following rules. First one should be free pass.  Second should $50.  Double every time.  Don't like the rule, change it in November.



the54thvoid said:


> The uptick in daily cases might be starting to show in deaths.



Nobody should use the US as a barometer for anything except stupidity.  We have Covid Party's here to see who gets sick.  I am pretty laissez faire with the virus but that is a little too far.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 12, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> On April 30th, the last day of our lockdown in my county, we had 285 cases including 8 deaths.  As of yesterday, we have 3369 cases and 29 deaths.  About 11 times the number of cases with about less than 4 times the number of deaths.  While cases have skyrockets, this applies to the state as well, the deaths and hospitalizations have not.
> 
> That state of Florida had 33,690 cases and 1268 deaths as of April 30th. As of yesterday, 270,000+ and 4,241 deaths.  About 8 times more cases and less than 4 times the amount of deaths.
> 
> ...



Nursing homes were still getting wiped out in May, a full 3 months after they had time to prepare and sanitize everything coming in (even the doctors and nurses couldn't stop it with plenty of warning, blocking all visitors, etc). The problem is the virus is ok for 98% of us (creating and inflating our ego), but the other 2% experience 10x higher death rates than severe flu, and regardless of what we do to make nursing homes like fort knox, or help old people in general, the virus easily makes its way (personally I think the virus travels through the ventilation systems in nursing homes, large office buildings, etc). So if we use basic logic, the problem isn't the virus really, it's that we as a society don't give a damn about old or vulnerable people. It's really not that hard to wear a mask like all the other nations that have it under control, even Vietnam and Thailand have it under control with very little deaths, because they all started wearing masks very early on. Amazing that 2nd world countries are beating and smarter than the richest nation on Earth. Yeah, most of us will be fine if we get it. It's a shame that so many are meh about masks, if I was an old person in Florida right now, I would be scared as crap. Will be hard to even get your groceries, especially if they find out that the virus floats in the air (I think many scientists believe this to be the case), because then asymptomatic people can still contaminate you in an empty grocery aisle, even with a mask on (ear/eyes it is very hard to contract this way but it is possible). So if everyone just wore a mask, it would halt the virus in its tracks. But that requires top down leadership, not state to state leadership.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 13, 2020)

You make this out like it is black and white when all the other experts are flipping and flopping all over this, WHO included.



lynx29 said:


> The problem is the virus is ok for 98% of us (creating and inflating our ego), but the other 2% experience 10x higher death rates than severe flu



Creating and inflating our ego?  What are you on about?



lynx29 said:


> it's that we as a society don't give a damn about old or vulnerable people



I beg to differ.  Florida as a state has about 1500 nursing home deaths because we generally try to take steps to help them out.  Don't use New York as your baseline for the rest of the country.  New York did not care about the elderly.



lynx29 said:


> It's really not that hard to wear a mask like all the other nations



Ask the Netherlands why they do alright without masks.



lynx29 said:


> I think many scientists believe this to be the case [that the virus is airborne]



Do some quick googling and you'll see that the scientific community is very divided on that.



lynx29 said:


> asymptomatic people can still contaminate you



The WHO doesn't seem to think so.



lynx29 said:


> So if everyone just wore a mask, it would halt the virus in its tracks



Again, ask Denmark how they are able to manage without them.  The reason the virus spreads is because people are disgusting and don't practice basic hygiene.  A mask isn't going to help with that.  Case in point, the average person gets out of the store with their mask on.  Gets in their care and tasks their mask off and starts picking their nose, puts their phone to their face, etc, etc, etc.  More than likely, they never clean their hands in between any of these events.  I bet 40% of people (mostly men), don't even wash their hands after using a public restroom.  Common hygiene practices would have more of an effect than masks.



lynx29 said:


> But that requires top down leadership, not state to state leadership



Why is that?  Aren't people smart enough to make decisions on their own?  If anything, State to State should be more effective as the information is closer to home, more personal if you will.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 13, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> You make this out like it is black and white when all the other experts are flipping and flopping all over this, WHO included.
> 
> 
> 
> ...






			https://www.thelocal.dk/20200709/danish-health-agency-recommends-face-masks
		


Denmark does wear masks in crowded areas...


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 13, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> https://www.thelocal.dk/20200709/danish-health-agency-recommends-face-masks
> 
> 
> 
> Denmark does wear masks in crowded areas...



My bad, Denmark was a typo.  See Netherlands like the first one.  @Vayra86 says they do fine without.

The point was, masks are not the end all be all.  They will not stop it in its tracks.  Are there benefits, likely, but basic hygiene will probably do just as much or likely more.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> A badly drawn graph and some circles plus some tally up of states (in the US of all places... do look abroad, Im living in a country that has this under control with zero masks involved  ) are not evidence in any field of science that I know of.
> 
> So yes we go in circles because you keep regurgitating flawed sources that have passed and gone months ago... so far, none of what you have shown is valid in any way shape or form. The only right response is to take note and indeed ignore it. That goes for 99,9% of what social media feeds you btw, which is where that pic originated from. A random nobody. Source check would be good, no? I kinda knew that specific pic was going to fly by again.



And yet you're still unprepared to argue against the picture, despite my repeated use of it. You claim that masks don't help, and then simply ignore the evidence when I point out countries that have seen a lessening of COVID cases.



> Ill reiterate. - not once was mask usage any contributor to controlling this here in NL - nor in Italy, or Spain.



Then why are masks mandatory in Italy and Spain? And why are masks mandatory in NL busses or public transport? The very base of your argument falls apart to the slightest scrutiny.









						Coronavirus: Spain tightens mask rules for all older than five
					

Wearing one will be compulsory for most people indoors and out, if social distancing is not possible.



					www.bbc.com
				






			https://www.thelocal.it/20200615/italy-new-rules-on-flying
		










						9292 Travels with you!
					

9292 is a daily source of travel information for public transport for all kinds of passengers. We bring all information from all transport companies together in a user-friendly way.




					9292.nl


----------



## R0H1T (Jul 13, 2020)

Did that study about the (different) virus strains yield any more interesting facts? I recall *xkm1948* posting a research paper about it, if you think the virus in NL will have the same impact in the US regardless of the geography, temperature, humidity & of course people & their lifestyle then you obviously have no clue about how these things work! Also did I mention the 3 major types of strains


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2020)

R0H1T said:


> Did that study about the (different) virus strains yield any more interesting facts? I recall xkm1948 posting a research paper about it, if you think the virus in NL will have the same impact in the US regardless of the geography, temperature, humidity & of course people & their lifestyle then you obviously have no clue about how these things work! Also did I mention the 3 different types of strains



I know there was discussion about the various strains (I was only aware of 2 strains... but maybe a 3rd one popped up)... but I haven't read too much about that.

NYC believes that most of their cases came "from Europe". So its highly likely that the US East-coast has the same strain as from Europe. West Coast has more connections to China, so I wouldn't be surprised if there was a different strain in Washington / California. But this is just my guesswork: I haven't really read any papers on this subject.


----------



## R0H1T (Jul 13, 2020)

I recall the paper said that the strain prevalent in the US is possibly the more virulent one, than Europe & certainly China, but that was some 3 months back so things may have changed/become more clear since then.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 13, 2020)

Stocks surrender gains after California rolls back coronavirus reopenings
					

A late day reversal hits stocks hard ahead of bank earnings out tomorrow.




					www.foxbusiness.com
				



If the ongoing studies are successful, and the vaccine candidate receives regulatory approval, the companies currently expect to manufacture up to 100 million doses by the end of 2020 and potentially more than 1.2 billion doses by the end of 2021.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 13, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> And yet you're still unprepared to argue against the picture, despite my repeated use of it. You claim that masks don't help, and then simply ignore the evidence when I point out countries that have seen a lessening of COVID cases.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Believe as you like, until you can come to terms with the rest of my post's arguments instead of picking the ones that suit your narrative. Quantifiable evidence.,. Until then, its all BS. Countries juming on hype trains are not evidence.

Note the non medical part of the measure in NL publicj transport  Note the fact those measures on masks are post flattened curve. Ergo, we still have zero evidence masks do anything at all. Let alone all the other hurdles, such as the vast majority completely unable to use it properly, or even refresh it daily.

We're done.



moproblems99 said:


> My bad, Denmark was a typo.  See Netherlands like the first one.  @Vayra86 says they do fine without.
> 
> The point was, masks are not the end all be all.  They will not stop it in its tracks.  Are there benefits, likely, but basic hygiene will probably do just as much or likely more.



Good to see there is still some sanity left in this topic.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> We're done.



Are we? Or are you just going to bring up the mask subject again in a few months? If you're done, then we can be done if you really like.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 13, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Stocks surrender gains after California rolls back coronavirus reopenings
> 
> 
> A late day reversal hits stocks hard ahead of bank earnings out tomorrow.
> ...


The UK has started too about 3 or 4 weeks ago.  Manufacturing of base components started then just to stay ahead of the production game.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 13, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Are we? Or are you just going to bring up the mask subject again in a few months? If you're done, then we can be done if you really like.



I'm going to bring it up anytime I see social media nonsense regurgitated in a topic that is supposed to be fact based, this time the trigger was Lynx29's ridiculous statement. Just to balance things out a little bit. Call it a sanity check, if you will. I think long term people benefit from keeping a level head like that. I do, at least.

Its also an exercise of reflecting on what you've been fed in terms of info, and how to value each part of it, but also to consider the motivation to 'decide' upon, in this case, mask usage. This is a crisis situation, and its all too easy to devolve into a state of madness which is where many governments are edging into right now, the US front and center. Masks only serve the purpose of giving people the peace of mind they might need to go out again and restart an economy. It has absolutely ZERO merit in terms of stopping pandemics like this. History is full of evidence, and we simply cannot ignore that. Our current day reality is that we're running the rat race and whenever we stop, lots of rich (and poor) people get very nervous. Consider that one, when you think of masks. Any society that cannot handle a pandemic and chooses to solve it with measures like these... is *prioritizing economy over your personal well being. *To each his own, but that is not happening in my world.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Masks only serve the purpose of giving people the peace of mind they might need to go out again and restart an economy.



The politics of your region are so significantly different from the USA that you're not understanding the issues we have here.

Today, we have anti-mask protesters gathering in Florida (the #1 COVID region in the USA) claiming that "masks don't do anything", and that COVID19 is a hoax. Wearing a mask, politically speaking in the USA, means taking COVID19 more seriously than others: 








Your naivete is somewhat refreshing. You're anti-mask but pro-lockdown. You have a reasonable point of view in the great scheme of things. However, your viewpoint clashes severely with the culture war going on right now in the USA. Pro-mask and pro-lockdown are on the same side over here. Wearing a mask is in support of the lockdowns.

------------

There's a political game being played here. It seems like you are insulated from it, and therefore lucky. The anti-science folk are the ones without masks marching in the streets and forming parties, spreading COVID all across the south. We've got "Covid Parties" over here, as people flaunt the virus and dare it to spread in their own communities. That's what anti-mask means in America.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 13, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The politics of your region are so significantly different from the USA that you're not understanding the issues we have here.
> 
> Today, we have anti-mask protesters gathering in Florida (the #1 capitol of the world) claiming that "masks don't do anything", and that COVID19 is a hoax. Wearing a mask, politically speaking in the USA, means taking COVID19 more seriously than others.
> 
> Your naivete is somewhat refreshing. You're anti-mask but pro-lockdown. You have a reasonable point of view in the great scheme of things. However, your viewpoint clashes severely with the culture war going on right now in the USA. Pro-mask and pro-lockdown are on the same side over here. Wearing a mask is in support of the lockdowns.



Exactly, so mask is political and not factual nor actually useful. Why even bother? Why place such a burden on yourself and society? Its completely crazy and that is perhaps fine for the US but its not the actual norm. And I won't stand for it becoming one. In Asia its not much different really, except there its not the political element but a social one: mask usage is telling the people around you 'look, I care'.

We understand each other now  The US is not, and will never be synonymous for the world, despite what some inhabitants might think.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Exactly, so mask is poltiical and not factual nor actually useful. Why even bother?



I *agree* with you that a mask is a political tool. But I believe in the science of a mask. The virus enters through your breathing, and covering your mouth is clearly effective.

Do not confuse my amicability to you as agreement. I'm simply changing the subject to something that you and I can agree upon, so that we can better move on from this subject.


----------



## neatfeatguy (Jul 13, 2020)

I've known 3-4 dozen people that have been "positively" test for covid. They all range in age, race and some even have other underlying health issues.
Someone as young as 20 to some older folks right around 70. One of the older folks has chronic bronchitis, she simply developed a slight fever for a couple days and that was it. A handful of people have asthma and even a couple have diabetes, they showed such mild symptoms they thought they just had a mild cold.
No one was hospitalized, the worst was someone having a fever and headaches for about 5 days. Otherwise slight runny nose, stiff joines, maybe slight fevers for a day or two or slight coughs.
Some of them said only some of their immediate family members tested positive after being quarantined for 2 weeks and getting everyone in the family tested - not everyone in their families contracted it, even after been locked up with positive family members for 2 weeks. 
Anyone that I've asked that has been tested at one point for it or had family/friends that tested positive...no one said they've had anyone they know needing to be required to be hospitalized.

Wife has a co-worker that has a son that's in the air force and the academy he went back to about 2 months back now, he told his dad no one wears masks. They do all the same activities as they did before any covid scares and social distancing was a thing. He said they get tested rigorously (at least once a week, some times 2 or 3 times a week for anyone that's just returned from being away) and only a couple of cases have come up. Those that do test positive are quarantined for 2 weeks in their room with their roommate and then they're released back out to join up in classes and training. Nothing has changed for them - no masks, no social distancing and the cases have been very minimal with mild to showing zero symptoms.

As for wearing masks, I know people that have become sick just from constantly wearing masks because they so truly believe everything in the media and social media that they will, honest to god, die if they don't wear them because they've been lead to believe covid is a death sentence. They've ended up with colds and pneumonia due to poor air they're breathing in because of the constant mask wearing.

It all just kind of makes you go....hmmmm.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 13, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I *agree* with you that a mask is a political tool. But I believe in the science of a mask._ The virus enters through your breathing, and covering your mouth is clearly effective_.



In a very basic sense I am not contesting that either to be fair with you. So we might be in *almost *full agreement here... But I'm a realist, and I see people wearing masks and 99% doing an extremely shitty job at doing so. I see idiots _alone_ in a car wearing a mask over their mouth with nose exposed... I see masks as fashion items, non medical and made of worthless materials. ETc etc etc.

You fight pandemics especially among the masses, with measures that actually _work and are sustainable._ That is the balancing act the Netherlands is on too with regards to reopening. Constant, very minor tweaks, really, to keep everything manageable, including the public's ability to keep going along with all of it. Behavioral psychology plays a *massive* role here, if not the only one that matters. This is because we have free societies and people must be convinced, and cannot, or will not be forced anyway.

Glad we came to some interesting talking points in the end.



neatfeatguy said:


> I've known 3-4 dozen people that have been "positively" test for covid. They all range in age, race and some even have other underlying health issues.
> Someone as young as 20 to some older folks right around 70. One of the older folks has chronic bronchitis, she simply developed a slight fever for a couple days and that was it. A handful of people have asthma and even a couple have diabetes, they showed such mild symptoms they thought they just had a mild cold.
> No one was hospitalized, the worst was someone having a fever and headaches for about 5 days. Otherwise slight runny nose, stiff joines, maybe slight fevers for a day or two or slight coughs.
> Some of them said only some of their immediate family members tested positive after being quarantined for 2 weeks and getting everyone in the family tested - not everyone in their families contracted it, even after been locked up with positive family members for 2 weeks.
> ...



Interesting, actual fact: some 41-47% of infections actually happened in the domestic space, your own home, by and from family members or relatives. The primary route for spread is actually intense or frequent contact in close proximity. It amounted for the above percentage of ALL infections we've had since this all begun over here.

So quarantined with positive family members or roommates... great... its a sure way to catch it yourself  Quarantine should, even in the same house, be extremely strict if your eally want to cut off the R number and avoid the infection altogether. We also know that even with mild symptoms the warpath this thing goes on inside your organs and body isn't really a good thing. The damage is semi permanent or at least very long lasting. A bit like how once you get a back injury you'll never recover back to the full strength you had prior to it.

As for all the rest, this is exactly what we see over here. Once you've got the curve under control, you can control the pandemic by keeping it on a tight leash and all other measures are really not necessary anymore. Whack a mole, as mentioned


----------



## HTC (Jul 13, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 46818 confirmed infected --- 306 more
- 31065 recovered --- 158 more
- 1662 fatalities --- 2 more
- 406412 suspected cases --- 1302 more
- 1316425 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 8th
- 1291 waiting for test results --- 67 more
- 34301 under watch from authorities --- *347 less*
- 467 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 63 in ICU --- *1 less*


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Interesting, actual fact: some 41-47% of infections actually happened in the domestic space, your own home, by and from family members or relatives. The primary route for spread is actually intense or frequent contact in close proximity. It amounted for the above percentage of ALL infections we've had since this all begun over here.



Or, my roof started leaking last month, so I had to call a contractor in.

Contractor did some work outside with binoculars, but still had to come inside to the attic to inspect the roof from the inside. Afterwards, we sat down at my kitchen table to discuss options, opting for a full single replacement + replacement of some of the roof decking (The leak was going through multiple different panels of decking: at least 2 leaks identified from the quickie scan from inside the attic). The job ultimately replaced 4 panels of roof decking, all of which shown water damage going through.

We wore masks the whole time. Both myself, as well as the contractor. This person-to-person contact could not be avoided. The contractor should inspect my roof from the inside to get a full idea of the job. It was a person-to-person talk lasting roughly 1 hour total. (This option costs X dollars, this other option costs more but has a longer warranty. Etc. etc. Including samples of the roofing material to be used at different price points, colors to choose, and other such decisions)

Yes, intense contact in close proximity. If my roof wasn't leaking, I would have avoided the subject. But life calls, we can't avoid all meetings even in the mist of this shutdown. In these situations, a mask is your last line of defense. Letting the roof leak for another few weeks would have continued to cause thousands of dollars of water damage throughout my home, this was an issue that required immediate attention.

----------

You're right in that talking (or singing) seems to escalate the risks of COVID19. This means that grocery store shopping is relatively low risk... but the risks start to escalate when you start talking. Primarily interacting with the cashier. Singing at church (which was one of the first super-spreading events in the USA). Etc. etc. Almost all of these major events had sitting around and talking as a common thread.


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## moproblems99 (Jul 13, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Good to see there is still some sanity left in this topic.



I question mine every day  



Vayra86 said:


> prioritizing economy over your personal well being



In a sense, I do prioritize the economy over my my own well being.  We have worse problems than the virus when the economy tanks.  It also is not lost on me that my (our) individual well-being drives the economy.  It is a tug of war and I treat it so.


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## Space Lynx (Jul 13, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> I question mine every day
> 
> 
> 
> In a sense, I do prioritize the economy over my my own well being.  We have worse problems than the virus when the economy tanks.  It also is not lost on me that my (our) individual well-being drives the economy.  It is a tug of war and I treat it so.




Ironically, if you just wore masks and it was enforced from the top down level, nothing would have to close. lol  Funny how you prioritize the economy but refuse to wear a mask.  Interesting times we live in.


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## moproblems99 (Jul 13, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Ironically, if you just wore masks and it was enforced from the top down level, nothing would have to close. lol  Funny how you prioritize the economy but refuse to wear a mask.  Interesting times we live in.



I never said I refuse.  If I refused, there would be places I couldn't go, like the doctors.  Or Disney.  I just choose wisely.  Also, what if I choose to the wear the mask but with my nose exposed like half the other people out there.  Is that good enough?  Should we have mask inspections so that people are actually wearing them correctly so efficacy is actually achieved.  Or is simply putting a mesh screen good enough?

Let's face it, the spit soaked see-through cloth pieces of shit that most people wear aren't doing anything.  If everyone was wearing masks that are useful, it may be a different story.  But those cost too much so no one buys them.


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## Space Lynx (Jul 13, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> I never said I refuse.  If I refused, there would be places I couldn't go, like the doctors.  Or Disney.  I just choose wisely.



So do I... no one is telling you to wear a mask in unpopulated areas... I ride my bike without a mask... cause there is no one else around where I ride.

The point is only some places enforce masks. My grocery stores do not, but Menards for example does, it creates a whack a mole situation, and then people travel state to state to.  Unless the law to wear masks in all populated places and stores comes from the top down, then it will be an endless whack a mole situation. This is what you disagree with, Or maybe that was Varya I don't remember. Anyways, yeah it's pretty simple to me, so whatevs.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Ironically, if you just wore masks and it was enforced from the top down level, nothing would have to close. lol  Funny how you prioritize the economy but refuse to wear a mask.  Interesting times we live in.



An N95 mask is 95% effective, preventing 95% of 0.3um aerosols from entering your mouth when breathing. Cotton masks however, are at best 60% effective (probably worse when homemade). Cotton masks do not have the electrostatic properties of N95 masks, nor a tight enough weave to stop particles of that size with the same effect. Furthermore, a large amount of the population (at least 50%) fail to use a mask correctly. You cannot touch the mask without washing your hands. You should wash your masks after every use. Wear it over your damn nose. Color-code the sides, always wear the "inside" portion on your face. (If you ever "invert" the mask, you start breathing in the COVID19 side and you've lost everything). Etc. etc.

In combination, I expect that cotton masks are 30ish% effective at best (just my personal expectation).

-----------

The reason why I'm very pro-masks is that its actually quite easy to use (if you know what you're doing). Don't touch the mask, carry hand-sanitizer, and use it before AND after you touch the mask. Wash your mask each use (carry multiple masks per day in a bag / car / whatever). I suggest maybe 10 masks in your closet, giving you enough time to use a mask, throw it in the laundry and use a fresh one. Color-coding can be as simple as two permanent-market notches on one side of the mask (the inside).

Once you got your methodology down, its easy.

---------

Another note: I assume COVID19 to have an R0 of 3. During the lockdown, America achieved a 50% reduction in mobility, suggesting an R-value of 1.5. Even with the lockdown in place, we're not reducing R below 1 yet. We need additional measures to get R below 1.0.

Assuming Masks x Lockdowns, we have 3.0 / 2 / 1.3 == 1.15 R-value or so. Additional efforts are still needed, but we'd be pretty close to R-value of 1.0 or less. Maybe additional cleanliness / hygiene at work environments (specifically: the ones that cannot lockdown. Blue-collar cashiers, food processing plants, grocery stores, parcel delivery, etc. etc.) will get us the last 20% or so we need to get to a safe level. Every effort provides us another *multiplier* of safety. Combining multiple means of safety together would be best.

--------

Or really, contact tracing is the last major boost to most localities. Have authorities seek out infections by calling contacts, and informing people that they've been in contact with an infected person. Even if you only catch 20% of the people through contact tracing, that's another 20% multiplier on top of all other precautions the society has taken.

--------

There's no "silver bullet" here. The only thing that will work is a multi-faceted approach with as many precautions taken at very turn as possible. Once *all* precautions are taken, we then open up the economy as much as possible (while keeping R-values below 1.0). The more we have in other protections, the more we can open up and return to normalcy. Maybe with more mask usage, people will be more comfortable using them and mask-usage will rise from 30% effective to 40% effective (with training, tips, and discussion between people). At which point, that "additional 10%" bonus can be spent on opening up another 10% of the lockdown.


----------



## robot zombie (Jul 13, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> An N95 mask is 95% effective, preventing 95% of 0.3um aerosols from entering your mouth when breathing. Cotton masks however, are at best 60% effective (probably worse when homemade). Cotton masks do not have the electrostatic properties of N95 masks, nor a tight enough weave to stop particles of that size with the same effect. Furthermore, a large amount of the population (at least 50%) fail to use a mask correctly. You cannot touch the mask without washing your hands. You should wash your masks after every use. Wear it over your damn nose. Color-code the sides, always wear the "inside" portion on your face. (If you ever "invert" the mask, you start breathing in the COVID19 side and you've lost everything). Etc. etc.
> 
> In combination, I expect that cotton masks are 30ish% effective at best (just my personal expectation).
> 
> ...


Interestingly enough, some of the mask guidelines here urge people NOT to use N95 masks... ...to save them for workers who need the ppe more...

...which begs the question. Why are we being compelled to wear them if there arent enough proper ones to go around? Human psychology 101 says most will just wear whatever, however, when forced.

I think theyre better than nothing, dont get me wrong. But at least in my neck of the woods it really is more of a political statement than actually being part of a unified plan to bring the numbers down. It almost seems more like a ploy to distract from the coming possibility of more setbacks and closures.

Like, weve been hit hard... so much handwaving has gone around. And then it comes down to "Everybody wear your non-n95 masks so we can stay open!"

To me theyre softballing it. Masks as they exist here are nowhere near good enough. And I doubt if theyre going to be. I think folks here want to believe it will be. But even now, stores arent turning down people without masks, even with signs saying its the law. A good half of the people I see arent. And the other half arent wearing n95.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Interestingly enough, some of the mask guidelines here urge people NOT to use N95 masks... ...to save them for workers who need the ppe more...



N95 masks are in short supply, and therefore should be given to nurses / doctors.



> ...which begs the question. Why are we being compelled to wear them if there arent enough proper ones to go around? Human psychology 101 says most will just wear whatever, however, when forced.



Because a cotton mask can be made out of a T-shirt and will reach 30% effectiveness (by my estimate). 30% effective is better than 0% effective.



> Like, weve been hit hard... so much handwaving has gone around. And then it comes down to "Everybody wear your non-n95 masks so we can stay open!"



Anyone saying that N95 masks allow us to open up just... haven't studied the math behind this or given it any thought. Masks are at best, a medium-effect solution. Its true power is that "use masks" can be combined with literally every other policy to make them 30% more effective. Doesn't matter what your municipality is: its 30% more effective in a lockdown to use masks, its 30% more effective outside of lockdowns to use a mask.

Given the relatively low costs, why not? Its a win as long as people know how to do laundry.



> And the other half arent wearing n95.



With N95 masks in short supply, it is immoral to use an N95 mask under these times. Do *not* use an N95 mask. Donate your N95 masks to your local hospital.


----------



## robot zombie (Jul 14, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> N95 masks are in short supply, and therefore should be given to nurses / doctors.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I understand all of that. I have 3 decent cloth masks with pouches for inserts, which I cycle-out as needed and wash regularly. Personally, I wish people would just do it, but in the state of Florida, I really don't see it happening. The amount of people following guidelines (and now mandates) are the same as they were when we had our last spikes. The only difference is we test more now. If the best we have is 50% of people out and about wearing masks that are 30% effective, we are screwed! I'm lucky if fewer than 3 people blatantly break my distancing at the store. As much as I appreciate the ideals behind it, it's a band aid on a gunshot wound, and the fragments are still inside. Municipality does matter. Masks are only as effective as people are willing to wear them. In my municipality, many, many people are willing to break the law in order to not wear one. Some just don't care, for others it is a statement. The conversations go back and forth between 'masks will be our salvation' and total denial of everything covid. Even local politicians are saying everything will be fine if everyone wears masks. OTOH many are sick of being told what they believe is what suits the people telling them on that day. They are eager to turn against our leaders at this point. And now they've been given a chance to protest by simply not wearing a mask. I think mandating it was a terrible idea. It doesn't sit well with the ecology of people here.

If only they could figure out a way to actually unify people. That's a separate topic, though. The ship has kinda sailed there and it comes down to leadership decisions and information passed down. It comes down to a failure to accurately communicate the right information and get that flowing down all channels. They've asked a bunch of people to do things they don't want to do, haven't been clear enough on the reasons, and have often done nothing to address the bad information, or even the most commonly held sentiments.

I think you severely underestimate the amount of ignorance in our state. You mentioned masks as a great supplement to other policies. Totally with you there. Still trying to figure out where those are right now. Mostly our governor seems bent on opening schools, even as cases continue to climb. And the only solution that's somehow going to stop things from climbing more as we go about trying to open up again (and open more,) is that everyone must wear masks.

You can say "Why not?" till you're blue in the face. I've been surrounded by people shouting reasons for 'why not' for months now. It's never going to be a reality here. People will unfortunately have to learn the hard way what this is really all about. I have yet to see a good solution to it. These people do not operate on facts, or even basic regard for other people. I work at a school that is staying open for daycare. Nobody but me is wearing a mask around people. Very little sanitizing is happening. Our leadership has offered no guidance or rules. And this is a theme I see with businesses that are open. Many have signs up, but nobody is turning away the business right now, fearing another closure is coming anyway.

The masks would help, if people would wear them. For us in south Florida, that effectively renders them next to useless, like an umbrella to stop a tidal wave. Passing a law is not enough to change things here in any meaningful way. I do think that's softball... when pretty much all they have to say is "Wear a mask because it's the law." Says to me they know they've already lost people on wearing them. The people who didn't wear them before haven't changed their minds. They push harder now. And this influences how things go for us, sadly.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 14, 2020)

Florida will be one of the first to be wiped out when we get a new 1918 level Flu again. It will happen within our lifetimes I suspect, COVID-19 is just a little taste of what is coming. Pretty much every scientists and Bill Gates have been warning about a pandemic for years now, I think COVID-19 is really just preliminary and we will see it mutate at some point. If not mutate, than the flu will eventually. It is only a matter of time really. It won't just make old people sick, it will wipe out lets see 40 million - to 1918 population scale it for 6 billion humans, and there is your answer. lol  but because COVID-19 inflated the ego's of these 98% asymptomatic people they won't believe the media, and it will wipe people out fast lol

humans are an interesting species, that is certain.


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## moproblems99 (Jul 14, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Florida will be one of the first to be wiped out when we get a new 1918 level Flu again.



If it follows this one, it will be New York, New Jersey, and Michigan first.  Florida will be in the first 10 though


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 14, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> If it follows this one, it will be New York, New Jersey, and Michigan first.  Florida will be in the first 10 though



I still will never understand how cities like NYC, Tokyo, LA even exist. The logistics behind feeding and sewage for that dense of a population is absolutely mind boggling to me. I imagine COVID-19 has shown how quickly those types of densely urban areas can completely fall apart, not deaths either, just pure ability to survive if shit hits the fan. Living in a small town in middle of nowhere Midwest, my life really hasn't changed at all, not one bit the entire year. I go for my bike ride daily, I come home, game, I just wear a mask at grocery store that's it. As far as toilet paper shortages go, I never worried about it, I figured if I ran out, I would just hop in shower and bend over with water setting on max, easy peasy. Humans have become weak. Wear a mask when around a lot of people, it's really simple. Too many idiots here though, lol


----------



## robot zombie (Jul 14, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> I still will never understand how cities like NYC, Tokyo, LA even exist. The logistics behind feeding and sewage for that dense of a population is absolutely mind boggling to me. I imagine COVID-19 has shown how quickly those types of densely urban areas can completely fall apart, not deaths either, just pure ability to survive if shit hits the fan. Living in a small town in middle of nowhere Midwest, my life really hasn't changed at all, not one bit the entire year. I go for my bike ride daily, I come home, game, I just wear a mask at grocery store that's it. As far as toilet paper shortages go, I never worried about it, I figured if I ran out, I would just hop in shower and bend over with water setting on max, easy peasy. Humans have become weak. Wear a mask when around a lot of people, it's really simple. Too many idiots here though, lol


I can understand it if you live in a large city. Often that is a lifestyle with a lot more interlocking parts, many of them being public. So more of your life is different than not. Still a mask is a tiny thing, but sometimes I think it's not actually about the mask, but what it symbolizes in the person's life. If they accept the mask, they have to accept the rest of the whole ugly picture... which might be something they've been putting off for months now. And the thing is, your brain will tell you the fear is something else because it's trying to shield you. You won't know that it's the whole thing eating away... it can just be the mask, because you can chew the smaller bites easier. That's just the mind holding onto some semblance of a complete picture with room for hope. When the big picture is messy, our apertures tighten down until it isn't. It's just existential stress built up over months of uncertainty, missteps, crisscrossing information, political division, lack of resources, loss of income (or threat of,) loss of direct contact with closest social support network. Lose one too many of those things and suddenly life isn't what you thought it was, and reason goes out the window as your brain starts doing back flips to try and resolve it. And then you start seeing sudden arguments that are awfully convenient for the people making them... I think people just start reaching when they hit critical stress mass.

Mental health awareness is still not good in the US. There is a severe lack of options... many people out there really struggle to manage their emotions and don't even know it. Worse yet, it's normalized to everyone around them. Typically everything is fine... but then the rubber hits the road and you realize "Oh... they have a problem." We all kind of have a lot to learn about how to self regulate and just be aware of how easy it is to get completely pulled aside when all of these background things are weighing in. It's sinister stuff... you know there's a bunch of little things bothering you. But maybe you say it isn't important - big thing first. Problem is, not dealing with those little things in a healthy way affects how you percieve the big thing. Could be dread/grief, anger, denial. The inability to process these things is a result of poor mental upkeep. Mental health is more than just disorders. What I'd say these people have going on is the mental equivalent to a poor diet. They're mentally obese and it's killing them.

Point being... and funnily enough I remember learning about this when we got into germ theory in middle school... the most vital tool you have in dealing with a disease crisis (or any crisis) is a composed, united, and informed populace. What we have instead is a grossly misinformed and world-weary populace with very little trust to go around. And like the cornered animals they are, they fend for themselves.


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## harm9963 (Jul 14, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> I still will never understand how cities like NYC, Tokyo, LA even exist. The logistics behind feeding and sewage for that dense of a population is absolutely mind boggling to me. I imagine COVID-19 has shown how quickly those types of densely urban areas can completely fall apart, not deaths either, just pure ability to survive if shit hits the fan. Living in a small town in middle of nowhere Midwest, my life really hasn't changed at all, not one bit the entire year. I go for my bike ride daily, I come home, game, I just wear a mask at grocery store that's it. As far as toilet paper shortages go, I never worried about it, I figured if I ran out, I would just hop in shower and bend over with water setting on max, easy peasy. Humans have become weak. Wear a mask when around a lot of people, it's really simple. Too many idiots here though, lol


A country boy can survive, times are a coming !

The preacher man says it's the end of time
And the Mississippi River, she's a-goin' dry
The interest is up and the stock market's down
And you only get mugged if you go downtown
I live back in the woods you see
My woman and the kids and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun, a rifle and a four-wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I can plow a field all day long
I can catch catfish from dusk 'til dawn (Yeah)
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too
Ain't too many things these old boys can't do
We grow good-ole tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
Because you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
'Cause we're them old boys raised on shotguns
We say grace, and we say ma'am
If you ain't into that, we don't give a damn
We came from the West Virginia coal mines
And the Rocky Mountains, and the western skies
And we can skin a buck, we can run a trot line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I had a good friend in New York City
He never called me by my name, just Hillbilly
My grandpa taught me how to live off the land
And his taught him to be a businessman
He used to send me pictures of the Broadway nights
And I'd send him some homemade wine
But he was killed by a man with a switchblade knife
For 43 dollars, my friend lost his life
I'd love to spit some Beech-Nut in that dude's eyes
And shoot him with my old .45
'Cause a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
'Cause you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
'Cause we're them old boys raised on shotguns
We say grace, and we say ma'am
If you ain't into that, we don't give a damn
We're from North California and South Alabam'
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck, and run a trotline
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
A country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
Source: Musixmatch

Songwriters: Hank Jr. Williams


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 14, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> As much as I appreciate the ideals behind it, it's a band aid on a gunshot wound, and the fragments are still inside.



Its a fair bit better than that.

No matter what measure you take, even if its a half-assed measure, it is applied exponentially over the growth curve of the virus. Lets say the 60% masks are used correctly by 50% of the population, and only 40% of your Florida population actually wears masks. That's a total effectiveness of 12%, sounds tiny, doesn't it?

But that's a 12% reduction to cases *per growth period*, which is roughly 7 days for COVID19. That means this week, you'll see 11% fewer cases. Next week, you'll see 21% fewer cases. The week after that, you'll see 29% fewer cases compared to doing nothing. This property holds no matter what "effectiveness percent" you feel any particular measure is, and it multiplies with all other measures you take.

Besides, Florida is still in far better straights than early NYC. NYC had a 30% growth day-over-day (compounded) for a month. Florida is tracking like 30% growth *per week*. The fact of the matter is, Florida is way better than March NYC days. People have taken noticed, and the virus grows far slower than it did than initially. Not everyone is a cov-idiot, even in the state of "Florida-man".

---------

Don't get me wrong, its better to apply the measure full-assed rather than half-assed. A 30% reduction is exponentially better than a 15% reduction in cases (especially because the difference is once again: compounded over every COVID19 generation).


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## Space Lynx (Jul 14, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> A country boy can survive, times are a coming !
> 
> The preacher man says it's the end of time
> And the Mississippi River, she's a-goin' dry
> ...




huh? Florida has some of the densest population spots in the country in multiple cities. I am referring to macro management, not country rural folk. Think of it as a scale... actually nm, I don't care anymore, gl to you all lol.


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## robot zombie (Jul 14, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Its a fair bit better than that.
> 
> No matter what measure you take, even if its a half-assed measure, it is applied exponentially over the growth curve of the virus. Lets say the 60% masks are used correctly by 50% of the population, and only 40% of your Florida population actually wears masks. That's a total effectiveness of 12%, sounds tiny, doesn't it?
> 
> ...


Fair enough. I can only say based on what I have seen where I live, and the handful of times I've been to West Palm, not much has changed from before. Not everyone who doesn't go along is a covidiot either. They're actually just behind or misinformed. Due to the back-and-forth they tune it out and wait. I was there when things first reopened and it seemed like everyone around just forgot it was a thing. So I hope you understand why I don't have a lot of faith in my fellow Florida-man. I'm telling you, the news is finally getting it right on masks now - the info is out there, and it's like nobody cares anymore. 

Though also to be fair, not being as bad as one of the worst spots to date isn't saying much. I have my concerns about how things will go if more people don't come around. And there is still the question of other measures. I don't think I'm understanding this compound reduction mechanism. I'm imagining RPG buffs. Say you have a 'mask' buff that will reduce MP reduction from covid status, or makes the status go away in 12% less time. Could you not also be hit with a 'superspreader' buff that increases the reduction/expiration time by another 30%?

It just seems like it wouldn't necessarily double each time, but rather you will see 12% fewer cases than you would have in what could still be a spike due to other factors elevating risks, such as people completely disregarding all of it. If more people were to put on masks, I would understand how a gradual decline would be possible. But if the amount of people wearing them doesn't change much, that leaves a group of people quite a lot more susceptible, who will contract and spread it at a rate potentially greater than the people wearing masks and such can reduce it, as people become more active. Say we go into an opening phase and it goes very badly. Growth per uptick increases by an extra 30%. Where is that 12% reduction from masks then? Factor it out and you have an 18% uptick, which if things were left unchanged, should continue until a saturation point is hit as per the population density. Right?

Like I said, legit not trying to nitpick, but I'm not following the logic. At least I can admit I don't understand


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 14, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> Though also to be fair, not being as bad as one of the worst spots to date isn't saying much.



The NYC case in March is consistent with the growth around the world: be it Wuhan China, Princess Diamond cruise ship, or Italy. The R0 growth of this virus is damn close to 3 (with official studies citing somewhere between 2.2 through 6). The R0 value isn't technically a "constant", but its closely related all around the world. If the R-value is reduced today, its because something is slowing down the spread. And Florida has an R value far below 3.



> I would understand how a gradual decline would be possible.



A gradual *comparative* decline.

Given Florida's current ~30% growth/week, that suggest an R-value of something around 1.3 or so (every infected person, on the average, infects 1.3 other people in the week).

So lets say you have 1000 cases today. With current measures, you'd be at 1300 cases next week, 1690 the week after that, 2197 the week after that, etc. etc. Substitute death statistics, hospitalization statistics, it doesn't matter. All of them would grow at approximately this exponential curve.

Now lets say you had 12% effective masks deployed (60% base cotton mask effectiveness. 50% of people use it wrong. Only 40% of the population even attempt to use it). What happens then? Well, instead of growing to 1300, you grow to 1160 in a week. The week after that, instead of growing to 1690, you're growing to only 1347. The week after that, you're at 1563 instead of 2197 (an improvement of 29%).

To *actually* decline, a location must drop the R value below 1.0. If its impossible (due to too many covidiots, or other situations), then reducing R as much as possible has an exponential benefit. R == 1.2 is exponentially better than R == 1.4

-----------

EDIT: The joy of exponential growth: *all* mitigation measures exponentially grow in effectiveness over time. Even half-assed measures.


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## robot zombie (Jul 14, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The NYC case in March is consistent with the growth around the world: be it Wuhan China, Princess Diamond cruise ship, or Italy. The R0 growth of this virus is damn close to 3 (with official studies citing somewhere between 2.2 through 6). The R0 value isn't technically a "constant", but its closely related all around the world. If the R-value is reduced today, its because something is slowing down the spread. And Florida has an R value far below 3.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ahh, okay, so I do get what you're saying. That's basically what I was getting at. It would climb at a slower rate, and over time this culminates in fewer cases by increasing margins - a shallower curve. But that would still mean more time and more cases before getting back at it. I'm thinking of things in terms of actually getting over the hump. 1.2 is still an increase from week to week, even if it is exponentially less. And things could always happen that would bring it back up. To me that's not good enough and more would be needed than seems to be on the table in the state of Florida right now. It would take more to continue dropping that r-value. The way I see it, there are some things in play that stand to lower it, such as mandating masks. Perhaps after some more grumbling people will follow. But we're also looking at doing things like opening schools so we can also get more people back to work, which could just as easily offset that r-value reduction and leave us back where we started. Still lower than it would've been with masks than without, but ultimately leaving more to do to get it down.

If anything, we just aren't doing quite enough to move forward. Masks will help, but the question is how much. The human element makes it hard to know that right now.

I do still think it's better than nothing. Every life counts. I wish everyone would just do it, and practice all of the other little measures while they're at it! Maybe this time next month things will be different. I have some hope... just not as much faith, heh.


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## HTC (Jul 14, 2020)

Found this interesting video bout the effectiveness of masks @ Anandtech forums but it's not from Youtube and i don't know how to link it, so i'll use the topic's post instead:






						PBS Science shows how well masks prevent the spread of Covid19
					

Some dumbasses (lets call them "conservatives") have been saying that 'masks don't work' because covid is so small that it can go through the holes of the mask, but this show shows that covid is often trapped in liquid molecules and masks prevent those molecules from spraying all over the place.




					forums.anandtech.com
				




This video uses an advanced imaging technique called *schlieren visualization* to show you why masks work.


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## the54thvoid (Jul 14, 2020)

The Lancet (UK medical journal) has release an empirical analysis of 172 transmission studies (June2020). 

Findings:



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext
		


Greatest reduction in transmission is distance. 1 metre provides significant risk reduction, greater distances, even more so.
Masks (face coverings) are also indicated as positive steps, more research required with randomised trials (ethically difficult). However, masks do provide protection.
Eye coverings are also mentioned.
And hygiene.

But as we all know - the greatest protection is distance (which is why medics need N95 masks). And why we had lockdowns.

The study does state there is no 100% way to stop it, which is also pretty much known - it's always abeen about risk. Distance, masks, hygiene; they all play a role.

Walking down the street, folk walking past - low risk
In a shop, folk nearby (not in your face) - low risk
In a house, chatting with friends (seated apart) - low risk
House party, pub, nightclub; shouting, crammed in - high risk.

Wearing a mask in a nightclub wont help. But in a house, or enclosed space with others, yes, the study suggests it will be beneficial. But the risk there is already low.

I've been shopping at our supermarket for 3 months - no mask. It's not busy, but then, I do walk by people. But I guess I'm one-metre away. In 3 months, there's been no outbreak (we'd be told if there was). It is a bit backwards that now I'll need to wear a mask in that place (unless they plan on letting in more folk, to increase possible transmission sources). But if it's still got limited capacity, I dont see the point.


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## Vayra86 (Jul 14, 2020)

I'm really glad we got to a more open and constructive viewpoint on masks in general, encouraging to see the last page of back and forth. Back to them stats


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## the54thvoid (Jul 14, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> I'm really glad we got to a more open and constructive viewpoint on masks in general, encouraging to see the last page of back and forth. Back to them stats



It's the internet effect. Everything plays a role but perhaps some get caught up in absolutes. If you have a contagious disease, my first action is to tell you to get away from me. No contact = no risk. But if you insist on coming close, I'm sticking a bag over my head. Then I'll kick you.


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## harm9963 (Jul 14, 2020)

“Additional staff is our primary need,” said Donna Richardson, chief nursing officer for Parkland Health and Hospital System.








						Texas hospitals are running out of drugs, beds, ventilators and even staff
					

Many Texas hospitals are no longer accepting transfer patients in order to maintain space for a surge that’s expected to come. In some parts of the state, it’s already here.




					www.texastribune.org


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## HTC (Jul 14, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 467051 confirmed infected --- 233 more
- 31550 recovered --- 485 more
- 1668 fatalities --- 6 more
- 408951 suspected cases --- 2539 more
- 1360164 tests taken --- 43739 more - last updated July 11th
- 1472 waiting for test results --- 181 more
- 34641 under watch from authorities --- 340 more
- 472 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 69 in ICU --- 6 more

On a personal note, since my COVID-19 test came back negative and my symptoms are subsiding, i'm no longer under watch from authorities, though i'm still not allowed to return to work until the middle of next week, just in case my test was a false negative.


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## moproblems99 (Jul 14, 2020)

Phew, good thing this isn't a problem at all...makes me wonder if we really are having 15,000 cases a day or 2-3000 like we always did.

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/f...-confirm-mistakes-in-floridas-covid-19-report



> Countless labs have reported a 100 percent positivity rate, which means every single person tested was positive. Other labs had very high positivity rates. FOX 35 found that testing sites like Centra Care reported that 83 people were tested and all tested positive. Then, NCF Diagnostics in Alachua reported 88 percent of tests were positive.





> The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.





> The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.


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## John Naylor (Jul 14, 2020)

I would expect folks on a tech forum to analyze the science ... but science dictates that every hypothesis be tested and we do have real world data to look at  .. and what do we see 

1,  The states w/ high high mask compliance are on a downslope.   Positivity is down, infection  rate compared to previous week is down,  deaths down.  In the states with poor compliance rates  ... the ones hosting "Coronavirus parties", and ignoring // protesting masks COVID is exploding.

2.  If you look at the states where the virus is expanding ... look up those states educational rankings for an interesting correlation.... also look at the red / blue maps from the 2016 election.

3.  I don't get the comments on mask availability ... have you been in a Home Deport lately ?.... N95 masks available in 5 packs for $15.  I call each store before leaving the house, if they don't enforce a must wear mask policy, I'll shop somewhere else.   Otherwise I'll ask for curbside pickup.

4.  As for the supermarkets ... distance isn't going to mean  beans if you're touching a freezer / fridge door touched 3 minutes ago by an infected person.

Of course for the best / most innovative protection, visit:  http://www.peopleofwalmart.com/



			https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/107738735_3108467999241841_2278842164850339814_o.jpg
		



			https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/0-2.jpeg
		



			https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/page/4/?s=%3Cscript%3Ealert%280%29%3C%2Fscript%3E
		



			https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screen-Shot-2020-06-29-at-9.33.45-AM.png
		



			https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/104874336_10223668428163918_5749136153967059032_n.jpg


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 14, 2020)

John Naylor said:


> 3.  I don't get the comments on mask availability ... have you been in a Home Deport lately ?.... N95 masks available in 5 packs for $15.








						Search Results for N95 at The Home Depot
					

Search Results for N95 at The Home Depot



					www.homedepot.com
				




I checked every home depot store in my area, they're all out of N95 masks. This must be some kind of local issue that's unique to my area (or maybe unique to your area).



> 4. As for the supermarkets ... distance isn't going to mean beans if you're touching a freezer / fridge door touched 3 minutes ago by an infected person.



Touching COVID19 with your fingers / hands is bad. But the COVID virus still needs to enter your lungs before its activated. If you use hand-sanitizer regularly, you'll be fine.

The issue is that many people fumble with their masks. Ex: touch a fridge door, touch their mask, and bam, now you got virus in your mask. Hand-sanitizer before, and after, touching the mask. Doctors and nurses train themselves to never touch their mask, and we too should learn this habit.

COVID19 on your hands means its one step closer to infecting you. But its not "endgame" yet. Nurses and doctors get COVID19 all over their hands, clothes, and selves each and every day while treating COVID19 patients. Heck, I'm sure they breath in some COVID19 (again: N95 masks still let in 5% of the virus). COVID19 isn't even the most infectious disease: its got an R0 of 3. This isn't measles (R0 of 15+), its "only" twice as infectious as the flu. Its not some magic "lightsaber" that instantly infects you if you make a mistake.

The name of the game is multiple layers of protection. For the typical layperson, we're talking handwashing, hand-sanitizer (before and after touching masks), and masks. For nurses / doctors, they need to strip naked outside of their house, bleach their clothes and take a shower immediately upon entry to prevent contamination (The summer sun *probably* has enough heat, UV-A, and UV-B to destroy viruses. EDIT: UV-C is blocked by Ozone-layer, or else humans would die too). Typical lay-people probably don't need to reach that level of paranoia.

--------------

Good news: COVID19 is a *virus*, which means it has no protections against the environment. Heat, humidity, UV-rays, alcohol, and soap... they all kill the virus extremely easily. (Bacteria in contrast, have cell-walls, capsules, and spores that make them very hard to kill). Furthermore, COVID19 is an RNA virus (not the more stable DNA), meaning its easier to kill than other viruses. Our habits can have a gross-effect on mitigating the spread of COVID19 and protecting ourselves.


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## Tatty_One (Jul 14, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Good news: COVID19 is a *virus*, which means it has no protections against the environment. Heat, humidity, UV-rays, alcohol, and soap... they all kill the virus extremely easily. (Bacteria in contrast, have cell-walls, capsules, and spores that make them very hard to kill). Furthermore, COVID19 is an RNA virus (not the more stable DNA), meaning its easier to kill than other viruses. Our habits can have a gross-effect on mitigating the spread of COVID19 and protecting ourselves.



And yet, unlike most other Influenza type viruses, it is positively thriving in the summer and also in the worlds very hottest climates, we had all better hope that infection rates have reached a negligible level before winter comes or there could possibly be considerably more trouble on the horizon...……….. happy days!


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 14, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> And yet, unlike most other Influenza type viruses, it is positively thriving in the summer and also in the worlds very hottest climates, we had all better hope that infection rates have reached a negligible level before winter comes or there could possibly be considerably more trouble on the horizon...……….. happy days!



Agreed. There's something concerning that its spreading this much even in the summer.

But as I stated earlier in this thread: its spreading significantly slower than the March spread here in the USA. Back in March, the virus was growing 30% a *day*, but now, its only growing 30% per week (aka: 4% per day). The summer heat probably has an effect (but its really impossible to perform any real study on this hypothesis).

EDIT: There's the "reverse heat" theory. Because temperatures go up in the summer, more Americans go inside to cool off. The Spring / Fall was safer because its cool enough to stay outside without A/C, so many meetups were outside. Summer meetups are overwhelmingly inside, giving more room to spread the virus.


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## Tatty_One (Jul 14, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Agreed. There's something concerning that its spreading this much even in the summer.
> 
> But as I stated earlier in this thread: its spreading significantly slower than the March spread here in the USA. Back in March, the virus was growing 30% a *day*, but now, its only growing 30% per week (aka: 4% per day). The summer heat probably has an effect (but its really impossible to perform any real study on this hypothesis).


Or maybe because you have had a lockdown and a large proportion of the population is at least a little more knowledgeable and cautious than they were back in the early days?


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 14, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Or maybe because you have had a lockdown and a large proportion of the population is at least a little more knowledgeable and cautious than they were back in the early days?



Well, yeah. Lots of reasons. I don't want to deny that.

But given the base mechanics (ie: RNA is highly volatile and sensitive to heat. COVID19 is an RNA-type virus. Etc. etc.), "it only makes sense" that it'd be weakened by summer heat. We will probably never get a scientific result on this question (at least... in time for it to matter). But that's my personal working assumption.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 14, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Agreed. There's something concerning that its spreading this much even in the summer.









I'm not saying it was engineered in a lab but it was engineered in a lab.  /S



dragontamer5788 said:


> But given the base mechanics (ie: RNA is highly volatile and sensitive to heat. COVID19 is an RNA-type virus. Etc. etc.), "it only makes sense" that it'd be weakened by summer heat. We will probably never get a scientific result on this question (at least... in time for it to matter). But that's my personal working assumption.



If summer heat killing it was a thing it would not have spread in Florida.  Our winter is your summer.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 14, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> If summer hear killing it was a thing it would not have spread in Florida. Our winter is your summer.



Reverse-heat theory. People go inside when its hot. That's where the virus spreads.

When its 70F outside, people meetup outside (Ex: Basketball or Tennis). When its 100F outside, people stop playing tennis and start drinking at air-conditioned bars.

Its unconfirmed, but that's the best explanation I've heard about the current mechanics and why its spreading in the hot south right now. (Yeah yeah, people want to bring politics into the discussion. But people overemphasize the difference between red-states and blue states. 49% of people voted for Trump and 47.8% voted for Clinton in Florida. There's not THAT many more Republicans down there to really make a big difference). The difference between a "Red State" and "Blue State" is like, +/- 5% across the population. I don't believe that's a substantial difference and prefer the more "natural" theories of mechanics (such as the reverse heat theory) to describe the current phenomenon.

With that being said: the governor was a bit slow with mask requirements and shutdowns. So the Florida population is behind with regards to mask usage and taking this threat seriously. Hmmm... its hard to make a solid opinion. There's lots of conflating evidence here and a lot of it is political.


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## the54thvoid (Jul 14, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> I'm not saying it was engineered in a lab but it was engineered in a lab.  /S
> 
> 
> 
> If summer hear killing it was a thing it would not have spread in Florida.  Our winter is your summer.




Read your post. Read my thread-ban trigger 'point'. Then saw the sign...


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## moproblems99 (Jul 14, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Read your post. Read my thread-ban trigger 'point'. Then saw the sign...
> 
> View attachment 162252



I even capitalized it, I lie Google autocorrect capitalized it.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Reverse-heat theory. People go inside when its hot. That's where the virus spreads.
> 
> When its 70F outside, people meetup outside (Ex: Basketball or Tennis). When its 100F outside, people stop playing tennis and start drinking at air-conditioned bars.



Yes and no.  A lot of us here like the warmth and skin cancer.  We just grab a bottle of water to go with the beer when we leave the house in the morning.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 15, 2020)

MINIMIZE RISK OF INFECTION WITH OUR DRIVE-THRU TESTING SERVICE 





						COVID-19 TEST | www.covid19drivethru.com | Houston, TX
					

COVID-19 Drive Thru Testing in Houston, Texas, www.covid19drivethru.com




					www.covid19drivethru.com


----------



## robot zombie (Jul 15, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> I even capitalized it, I lie Google autocorrect capitalized it.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes and no.  A lot of us here like the warmth and skin cancer.  We just grab a bottle of water to go with the beer when we leave the house in the morning.


Can attest. Summer is beach/boat time. The sun is hot, but the water's not and the snowbirds have long melted. All people really want to do here is hunt, fish, and swim.

Interestingly enough, I don't know a single person who hasn't had at least one basal cell carcinoma removed from somewhere. I'm probably about to have one taken off of my face. 30's about the right age. Had stage 1 melanoma scooped out of my back when I was around 10. We live outside as children. That's probably part of why we are... the way we are.

But wait... I wonder how the snowbirds factor in. Florida probably absorbs a good million people every winter. Fewer will come this year, I'm sure. In certain areas, it's probably a big chunk of the population. They only like certain places. Usually smaller southern coastal cities and towns. My county explodes with people every winter. That's a logistical factor I don't think too many have considered, outside of when seemingly all of them brought their families down to their winter homes here when things first struck hard in NYC. I'd expect at this point most left when they had the chance. But how many stayed? How many will stay this winter? I know in my own area, that could change quite a lot of things for us.

Unfortunately this is hard to know. Things are murky when it comes to counting temporary residents and the way different municipalities draw estimates. It's enough that our local economy and government sort of depend on it. Not enough  to keep proper track of, I guess


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 15, 2020)

Big jump in Maryland hospitalizations over the last 2 days. As stated before: 3-days is a trend, but... its not looking good at all. %Positive remains in the ~4.5ish% region for roughly a month, and gives me a source of optimism. (If %Positive is constant, it seems unlikely for "true cases" to be getting worse). Its a contradictory sign for sure.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 15, 2020)

New confirmed cases seems very high though, is that 756 figure for 24 hours?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 15, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> New confirmed cases seems very high though, is that 756 figure for 24 hours?



Yeah, that's 24-hours.

But testing volume is way up recently. Maryland keeps getting more and more tests available. It seems like every time we double testing, we double the number of confirmed cases. I almost discount confirmed cases because its mostly a function of how many tests were done in the region, as opposed to actually detecting the virus.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 15, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Yeah, that's 24-hours.
> 
> But testing volume is way up recently. Maryland keeps getting more and more tests available. It seems like every time we double testing, we double the number of confirmed cases. I almost discount confirmed cases because its mostly a function of how many tests were done in the region, as opposed to actually detecting the virus.


We are doing the same but that does seem high for a state with a population of just over 6 million, we are averaging 500 - 600 new infections a day in the UK but we have over 66 million, there is a lot we have not got right but I assume you are no longer in lockdown?  We are out of lockdown now pretty much completely so the next couple of weeks will tell for us maybe.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 15, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> We are doing the same but that does seem high for a state with a population of just over 6 million, we are averaging 500 - 600 new infections a day in the UK but we have over 66 million, there is a lot we have not got right but I assume you are no longer in lockdown?  We are out of lockdown now pretty much completely so the next couple of weeks will tell for us maybe.



We're in phase 2 reopening.

Many things remain closed, but its not "full open"  yet. Its beginning to look like phase 2 was a step too far in the reopening path. We might have to rollback to phase 1.

What Phase2 means here: Restaurants are open for dine-in. But only ~10 people are allowed at a time. Churches were opened up, but only at 50% capacity (and in practice, it means that you have to reserve your spot in church before coming in). Phase 1 had churches remain closed / restaurants as drive through / carry out only. Bishop has kept the declaration that church remains optional in phase 2.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 15, 2020)

Texas hospitals on the brink of collapse as coronavirus cases surge
					

In Hidalgo County, ambulances have been waiting as long as 10 hours to deliver patients to packed emergency rooms




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 15, 2020)

@harm9963 Hmmm, looking into the Texas situation... it seems like local cities / counties were locking down individually. What's the state of your lockdown over there?









						Maryland Gov. Hogan urges crackdown on bars and restaurants as coronavirus cases surge among young people
					

Hogan called for warnings, fines and other action to be taken against bars and restaurants "flagrantly violating the law and endangering public health.”




					www.baltimoresun.com
				




Looks like Marylands near term plan is to remain in phase 2, but send more officers in to close restaurants / bars who are failing to comply with the phase 2 guidelines.



> “An increasing number of COVID-19 cases have been connected to non-compliance with public health requirements particularly in bars and restaurants,” Hogan wrote in a letter to county leaders Tuesday. “We cannot allow a small segment of willful violators to squander the collective efforts of the overwhelming majority of Maryland citizens and businesses.”





> More than half of Maryland’s 733 new coronavirus cases Tuesday — the most in one day since early June — were among people less than 40 years old. In addition, people under 35 have a testing positivity rate 84% higher than those above 35, according to Hogan’s letter.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 15, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> @harm9963 Hmmm, looking into the Texas situation... it seems like local cities / counties were locking down individually. What's the state of your lockdown over there?


 Houston is my home, Harris county lock down ,   stay home for now, furlough ,  work for the Houston Astros ,  lost two coworkers this week , just notified , if someone told me a year ago after the World Series , world events  would take my coworkers lives ,  would have thought theme mad !


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 15, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Houston is my home, Harris county lock down ,   stay home for now, furlough ,  work for the Houston Astros ,  lost two coworkers this week , just notified , if someone told me a year ago after the World Series , world events  would take my coworkers lives ,  would have thought theme mad !



Condolences.

The good news is that Texas has begun to take steps to fight back against COVID19. The bad news is that it took Maryland roughly ~1 month before those steps took effect. The good news is that Texas's rise in COVID-cases is much slower and shallower compared to Maryland's rise back in March.





Maryland (in March) vs Texas (today) is going to be very different. But hopefully the comparison can give you some idea of what is to come.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 15, 2020)

Harris county is a state onto its self , 4.7 million people ,plus undocumented ,  Texas 29 million people  ,plus undocumented.


----------



## HTC (Jul 15, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 47426 confirmed infected --- 375 more
- 32110 recovered --- 560 more
- 1676 fatalities --- 8 more
- 411293 suspected cases --- 2342 more
- 1366864 tests taken --- 5913 more - last updated July 12th
- 1550 waiting for test results --- 78 more
- 35316 under watch from authorities --- 675 more
- 478 hospitalized --- 6 more
- 68 in ICU --- *1 less*


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 15, 2020)

UK Update as at 15th July:


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 15, 2020)

Just to add to UK numbers, Scotland's had zero deaths for 7 days in a row. I think we've got a handful in ICU. Maybe single digits.


----------



## milewski1015 (Jul 15, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> We're in phase 2 reopening.
> 
> Many things remain closed, but its not "full open"  yet. Its beginning to look like phase 2 was a step too far in the reopening path. We might have to rollback to phase 1.
> 
> What Phase2 means here: Restaurants are open for dine-in. But only ~10 people are allowed at a time. Churches were opened up, but only at 50% capacity (and in practice, it means that you have to reserve your spot in church before coming in). Phase 1 had churches remain closed / restaurants as drive through / carry out only. Bishop has kept the declaration that church remains optional in phase 2.


Ah a fellow Marylander. Maybe it's the introvert in me but I think we reopened too much too early.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 16, 2020)

__





						COVID-19 Community Levels
					

Resource for the Harris County COVID-19 Community Levels page which was adopted on 9/15/2022 to merge with the CDC's criteria



					publichealth.harriscountytx.gov


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 16, 2020)

Well, while countries work toward that vaccine, what global troll pops up from the ether?









						Coronavirus: Russian spies target Covid-19 vaccine research
					

The UK, US and Canada say state-backed hackers tried to steal coronavirus vaccine research.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 16, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, while countries work toward that vaccine, what global troll pops up from the ether?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think it's time for the russian people to oust Putin and establish a legitimate for of government.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 16, 2020)

milewski1015 said:


> Ah a fellow Marylander. Maybe it's the introvert in me but I think we reopened too much too early.



Phase 1 reopening was safe though. We still had declining numbers throughout phase 1... and even declined in Phase2 for a long period of time.






Montgomery County was the site of infection#1 and was chosen somewhat arbitrarily. PG County is now in the worst case, but I just wanted to point out that "Maryland Phase 2" doesn't necessarily mean "all of Maryland". Individual counties made their own decisions when to advance to phase 2... Maryland itself had to open up to phase 2 before the individual counties could.


----------



## HTC (Jul 16, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 47765 confirmed infected --- 339 more
- 32426 recovered --- 316 more
- 1679 fatalities --- 3 more
- 413498 suspected cases --- 2205 more
- 1396902 tests taken --- 30048 more - last updated July 14th
- 1542 waiting for test results --- *8 less*
- 34898 under watch from authorities --- *418 less*
- 476 hospitalized --- *2 less*
- 72 in ICU --- 4 more


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 16, 2020)

This is the under belly ! Alfonso Sarat, 47, had developed a persistent cough days before, and felt so fatigued he had fallen asleep in his car between shifts as a dishwasher and kitchen assistant at two different restaurants. But he couldn’t afford to see a doctor and was fearful of exposing himself as living in the U.S. illegally. 








						COVID is hitting Houston Hispanics hard — and it's getting worse
					

Roughly a third of Hispanics being tested for the virus in Harris County are receiving a...




					www.houstonchronicle.com


----------



## HTC (Jul 17, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48077 confirmed infected --- 312 more
- 32790 recovered --- 314 more
- 1682 fatalities --- 3 more
- 415851 suspected cases --- 2353 more
- 1413519 tests taken --- 16617 more - last updated July 15th
- 1735 waiting for test results --- 193 more
- 35150 under watch from authorities --- 161 more
- 447 hospitalized --- *29 less*
- 67 in ICU --- *5 less*


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 18, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Harris county is a state onto its self , 4.7 million people ,plus undocumented ,  Texas 29 million people  ,plus undocumented.
> 
> View attachment 162303



And that right there is the problem with all of those individual states, and then even regions within states. They all think they can do their thing even when there is overwhelming evidence you need a centralized, controlled approach to combating this.

First, NY fell, and everyone thought 'won't happen to me'.
Then it spread to other hubs and still the rest thought 'won't happen to me'....
Then it started moving across the country and still the countryside would think 'won't happen to me'...

What's next? Triage. Italy v2, except then the scenario times a wild number of individual states... Even post steep curve in neighbouring states, so, those healthcare systems have already taken a beating. Its like watching the house next door burn down spontaneously and not even stopping to wonder what the hell happened.

Absolutely mind blowing... someone said measures take about a month to take effect (which is true, 2 week + 2 week as the infected spread domestically)? The US has already shown it doesn't have the slightest patience to lock itself down for a month. At this rate, you will never subdue this to begin with. NY is up for a new round, soon. Better hold on to those masks... I get it now, its all you've really got. Damn..



lexluthermiester said:


> I think it's time for the russian people to oust Putin and establish a legitimate for of government.



That's White Russia right now . You have to understand Putin is like the Russian Trump, and he's in office too on a majority vote. Note all the similarities, as they are being added almost daily between these two countries as we speak.








						'Stop the cockroach': protests rattle Belarus President Lukashenko before election
					

In the Belarusian capital Minsk, a long queue formed outside a covered food market on Sunday as people waited for hours to give their signature to opposition candidates contesting a presidential election in August.




					www.reuters.com
				




Even if opposition in Russia isn't quiet either;








						2019 Moscow protests - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






milewski1015 said:


> Ah a fellow Marylander. Maybe it's the introvert in me but I think we reopened too much too early.



That'd seem obvious. Once the first sign of a decline set in, people stopped being cautious, even with a storm raging. And then there is the cross-state influence as well. Looking at the US as individual states is still the most obvious mistake. That is also why the numbers per state don't often make a whole lot of sense and all of the analysis being done on the basis of them, is absolutely worthless in any general sense. Its an easy way to delude yourself into thinking some strange approach is going to work - which is the approach we see with all states doing whatever they think is best.

Compare it to Europe... we're effectively a continent of states too, but with more clearly defined national governments and those governments are also talking on a higher level (EU). The initial response was that of individual countries, and the EU was entirely pushed back to 'facilitate' whatever the states needed. Only after the initial panic did we start communicating, and that is when things started working in our favor again.

Even now the countries look and selectively open borders. It matters where you come from, as to how long you're getting and IF you are getting quarantined on arrival, for example. The flow of people is being controlled, monitored and constantly adapted to the latest reality in R numbers locally. Slowly but surely we're going towards an effective, pretty localized form of fully reopened society, keeping it managed above all else. I won't say we did things perfectly, but you do see how a state of relative control can be maintained if people just work together and if countries coordinate well. Note that this is talking about the period ever since March. We only opened since June, (Phase 1) and ever since July 1st its almost back to business as usual. That is not 4 weeks. Its more - much more.

Its those two key things: patience, and very cautious, controlled reopening with the constant idea it might pop back up, so you need contact tracing and test capacity available.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 18, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its an easy way to delude yourself into thinking some strange approach is going to work - which is the approach we see with all states doing whatever they think is best.



Anyone with a brain knew it wasn't going to work. But our current President is a dumbass. We can't expect Mr. Trump to take leadership in this situation. As such, we rely upon our governors and mayors to make the right choice.

Maryland cannot close its boarders to Florida. We have a super-highway and major train routes connecting our two states together. Those are under federal control (ie: Trump). My family friends own "summer homes" in Florida (multiple: this is super common). Despite the distance, Maryland and Florida are very close socially. Any disease in Florida will spread to Maryland. We need a truly country-wide approach for things to actually work. But a country-wide approach requires the cooperation of the President.

We'll make due with what we can get with our local governors. Its the best we can do, no point complaining about it beyond that. We just do the best that we can do given our circumstances.

----------

Maryland went into strict lockdown when there were fewer than 1500 cases in the state. We saw the exponential rise, we largely believed in science (anti-mask demonstrators excepted). We made the sacrifice. We're one of the first states to enter lockdown. But we're also next to the nation's capital: a huge amount of travel from across the country comes here. We cannot control those visitors, or the lockdown status of those states.



> We only opened since June, (Phase 1) and ever since July 1st its almost back to business as usual.



This seems like a difference in "Phase 1" terminology. Phase 1 reopening in Maryland means all crowds of size 10 or more were banned still (except Churches. But churches largely stayed closed in my experience). This meant that stores could only allow 10-people (total) in at once. Haircuts were allowed, but by appointment only. Restaurant dining was completely banned. Phase 1 Maryland "reopening" was similar to the lockdowns that other states were at.

Phase 1 reopened playgrounds and public parks, allowing our citizens to walk outside. And for the most part, the science has shown that outside is in fact safer than inside. And given the graphs of what happened in our Phase 1 opening, I think phase 1 was a safe place to be.

Phase 2 just barely seems like we've reopened too much. We need something between Phase 1 and Phase 2. With the caseload increasing, and hospitalizations slowly inching back up, Phase 2 seems like a step too far now.



> Compare it to Europe... we're effectively a continent of states too, but with more clearly defined national governments and those governments are also talking on a higher level (EU). The initial response was that of individual countries, and the EU was entirely pushed back to 'facilitate' whatever the states needed. Only after the initial panic did we start communicating, and that is when things started working in our favor again.



Aside from UK (which isn't part of Europe anymore), you guys don't have propaganda misleading your citizens on this matter. Even under the strict lockdowns, people were throwing COVID19 parties here in Maryland. We needed officers to be going around, ensuring that the lockdown was actually enforced.


----------



## HTC (Jul 18, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48390 confirmed infected --- 313 more
- 33153 recovered --- 363 more
- 1684 fatalities --- 2 more
- 417996 suspected cases --- 2145 more
- 1413519 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 15th
- 1617 waiting for test results --- *118 less*
- 35113 under watch from authorities --- *37 less*
- 452 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 65 in ICU --- *2 less*

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48636 confirmed infected --- 246 more
- 33369 recovered --- 216 more
- 1689 fatalities --- 5 more
- 419408 suspected cases --- 1412 more
- 1413519 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 15th
- 1620 waiting for test results --- 3 more
- 35081 under watch from authorities --- *32 less*
- 439 hospitalized --- *13 less*
- 61 in ICU --- *4 less*

Although with "some hiccups", hospitalized has been dropping lately.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 19, 2020)

Maryland seems to be tracking upwards now.



HTC said:


> - 48636 confirmed infected --- 246 more
> - 1689 fatalities --- 5 more
> - 439 hospitalized --- *13 less*
> - 61 in ICU --- *4 less*



Odd. Maryland's proportions are grossly different than Portugals.

* 78131 Cases (+925 change).
* 3247 Deaths (+9 change).
* 449 Hospitalized (+1 change).
* 131 ICU. (-6 change)

ICU, Deaths, and Cases suggest we're ~2x as bad as Portugal right now. But our hospitalization numbers are in the same magnitude. I wonder what is causing the difference? I'd expect the proportions to remain roughly the same across different geographies.

EDIT: I forgot to factor in the population. Portugal is 10-million, Maryland is 6-million. So maybe 4x as bad as Portugal, once population is factored in.

EDIT2: Not very odd now that I think of it. Cases / Deaths is the "integral" of infections. While hospitalization / ICU is the "current state" of infections. The infection, hospitalization, and fatalities are time-delayed versions of the state of infections.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 19, 2020)

Tale of two States.





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					txdshs.maps.arcgis.com


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 20, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Aside from UK (which isn't part of Europe anymore), you guys don't have propaganda misleading your citizens on this matter. Even under the strict lockdowns, people were throwing COVID19 parties here in Maryland. We needed officers to be going around, ensuring that the lockdown was actually enforced.



Last weekend several illegal parties were stopped by police (+150 ppl), in the Netherlands, similar reports from out of Berlin (it is even condoned in a park/forest area near town, has been going on for months).

You don't really even need propaganda for people to be people. These things happen, the real question is how you handle them. Repression isn't always the answer, escalation most certainly is never the answer. Any government thinking it will force its citizens into obedience is doing it wrong. Unless they go full totalitarian state.

These things just happen and they always will, just like you will always have a percentage of criminal activity of any kind, or people who don't believe whatever you or I or anyone else says. The problem exists when other people think they need to care about that, when they really don't. Live and let live. Except with something as invisible such as this... that is a very tall order, really. Because letting live might mean others die, even if you might never know it. But then we do accept those deaths when it comes to a multitude of other things we just do...


----------



## milewski1015 (Jul 20, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> You don't really even need propaganda for people to be people. These things happen, the real question is how you handle them.


Agreed. Even without the rampant politicization of the fight against COVID, we still would've had our group of idiots being idiots. The problem is that we've got King Idiot encouraging the idiocy - calling for the "liberation" of people in states under lockdown, cutting US funding for research towards 
coronaviruses, etc. It's clear that at a federal level, it's all (idiots included) being handled poorly. 

I personally don't understand what the fuss is with having to stay home and wear a mask. People are out here acting like they've been asked to sign away their entire lives forever. They forget that if you were born a few generations ago, instead of being asked to wear a piece of cloth over their face and stay home, they would've had a weapon thrust into their hands and been shipped overseas to fight a war (in the case of the able-bodied men anyway) or been working in factories making ammo and other wartime essentials. God forbid you couldn't go out and get your weekly pumpkin spice latte at Starbucks with Karen though -  you've really got it so tough  

I've seen coverage of other countries, Canada comes to mind, where people were happy to wear a mask and stay home. They felt it was their responsibility to their society. Unfortunately it seems like the US hasn't grown up enough to accept those responsibilities yet.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 20, 2020)

And that will be enough of the politics... lest the mods of doom rain wrath and agony upon us all...


----------



## HTC (Jul 20, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48771 confirmed infected --- 135 more
- 33547 recovered --- 178 more
- 1691 fatalities --- 2 more
- 420635 suspected cases --- 1227 more
- 1466662 tests taken --- 53143 more - last updated July 19th
- 1560 waiting for test results --- *60 less*
- 35073 under watch from authorities --- *8 less*
- 454 hospitalized --- 15 more
- 61 in ICU --- no change

This is our lowest new daily infected cases number since May 11th. Also had a big jump in tests taken but that's because it's actually from 4 days and not just one, which is why i've been adding the "last updated" part to it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 20, 2020)

I decided to check my Governor's twitter page, and there's a new graph which is kinda cool:





So now we have a good idea for where COVID19 is county-to-county.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 20, 2020)

We are getting closer.....................









						Oxford coronavirus vaccine triggers immune response, trial shows
					

Early results also indicate vaccine is safe, raising hopes it could help end pandemic




					www.theguardian.com
				




And this looks promising too ..................









						Trial of Covid-19 drug given via inhaler 'very promising', say scientists
					

Researchers say SNG001 can reduce need for ventilation and improve survival chances




					www.theguardian.com
				




Finger's (and toes) crossed!


----------



## HTC (Jul 21, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> We are getting closer.....................
> 
> 
> 
> ...



While i hope some drug can be found that reduces the *need for hospitalization*, something that speeds up recovery is also good because it gives hospitals more "breathing room" when cases numbers are high.

As for vaccines, while i understand the need for vaccines against this virus to be patented regardless of which vaccine ends up being the best, it's important that whoever ends up with the discovery isn't naive enough to keep the drug to whatever company discovers it but rather distributes it's secrets to manufacturers accoss the world as soon as possible, via licensing or whichever other methods they end up choosing.

Why? Because having 2 or 3 manufacturing sites (or however many the discovering company has) *is grossly inefficient* considering the need for the vaccine worldwide, since *the goal here is not to vaccinate ONE country as soon as possible but ALL of them as soon as possible*, so that finally *FINALLY everything can be opened up*.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> While i hope some drug can be found that reduces the *need for hospitalization*, something that speeds up recovery is also good because it gives hospitals more "breathing room" when cases numbers are high.
> 
> As for vaccines, while i understand the need for vaccines against this virus to be patented regardless of which vaccine ends up being the best, it's important that whoever ends up with the discovery isn't naive enough to keep the drug to whatever company discovers it but rather distributes it's secrets to manufacturers accoss the world as soon as possible, via licensing or whichever other methods they end up choosing.
> 
> Why? Because having 2 or 3 manufacturing sites (or however many the discovering company has) *is grossly inefficient* considering the need for the vaccine worldwide, since *the goal here is not to vaccinate ONE country as soon as possible but ALL of them as soon as possible*, so that finally *FINALLY everything can be opened up*.


I can confirm at this stage it is a working vaccine for all intense and purposes, the really good thing about it is that it is a 2 level approach meaning it also boosts the bodies T Cell production which basically cleans up during and after the war that is going on in the body by destroying any infected cells left behind to ensure that the body does not relapse at some point which is quite common place apparently where it appears that the immune system has defeated the virus only to suffer a renewed attack a few days or weeks on whilst the immune system is in a weakened state.  The further research required is around testing it more on every age range and those with a mix of different underlying conditions to ensure it is safe, an example of this is that in most cases only one dose was required but they did find one or two cases in the over 80's where a second dose was required but I don't know if that was a week or a month after the first dose but it makes sense to me as in that age range the existing immune system is so much weaker so may require a "booster", we also need more evidence that it is safe for children simply because there are much fewer children getting the virus that the research for this age range is less robust, at the end of the day, unlike an adult volunteer you cannot just inoculate a 9 year old and then 2 weeks later inject them with the virus.

As for licencing and production,  It's the research team that have discovered it, in this case Oxford University.  I would imagine that any pharmaceutical company worldwide can obtain the license to produce from day 1, I don't even know if or how they have to pay for that, obviously the research costs are covered separately, possibly in the license fee and tied into the production/manufacturing costs by the pharmaceutical company producing it.  I know that the UK has already secured deals with 3 companies, one being a part UK company called AstraZeneca, another being the USA/Germany company the US has a deal with and not sure of the third but I do know that the first 30 million doses from AstraZeneca will be for the UK and the other 2 companies will be producing a further 70 million for us at some point in the future as I understand it.

All this is just pieces from various news reports over here in the last 48 hours so I can't be totally sure of the accuracy but things at least look more promising than they did just a few weeks ago and from what I have heard the US are close to announcing they may have something as is our Imperial College research team who have been working on a 2nd vaccine within the UK, the more options we get the better IMO, because we may find that one solution works better than another with certain underlying condition or age ranges.


----------



## HTC (Jul 21, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> As for licencing and production,  It's the research team that have discovered it, in this case Oxford University.  I would imagine that any pharmaceutical company worldwide can obtain the license to produce from day 1, I don't even know if or how they have to pay for that, obviously the research costs are covered separately, possibly in the license fee and tied into the production/manufacturing costs by the pharmaceutical company producing it.  *I know that the UK has already secured deals with 3 companies, one being a part UK company called AstraZeneca, another being the USA/Germany company the US has a deal with and not sure of the third* but I do know that *the first 30 million doses from AstraZeneca will be for the UK and the other 2 companies will be producing a further 70 million for us at some point in the future as I understand it.*



And that's the problem i was referring to in my previous post: 100M vaccines are like a drop in the ocean.

Lets say, for the sake of argument, those 3 companies have 10 manufacturing sites worldwide and can produce those 100M vaccines in ... say ... 2 weeks: wouldn't it be better to sell / license / whatever other method to ALL other companies in the world with manufacturing capabilities so that they could produce 100 times as many vaccines in a fraction of the time, so that the whole World could return to "normalcy" that much faster?

Trying to profit by restricting the speed with which to inoculate the World is the LAST THING the World needs, AFTER a vaccine is found: everyday the World loses $B due to the restrictions being enforced in most countries.

What the World REALLY NEEDS is a COVID-19 "Manhattan Project" kind of cooperation, instead of different companies attempting to come up with different vaccines.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 21, 2020)

Maryland county level officials have noticed the rise and are beginning to ask to rollback the reopening: https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/0...d-restrictions-back-for-bars-and-restaurants/



> “We are writing to share our concerns regarding the recent increase in daily cases across the state and impact of the virus over the past week,” said health officers from Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties and Baltimore City in a letter obtained by The Baltimore Sun.



EDIT: Nothing official yet though. The rise in COVID19 cases is pretty slow, all else considered. So we do have the ability to take our time with this (maybe see things out for the rest of the week....). But given the current trends, we really need to reverse Phase 2 and return to something closer to Phase 1.





The key seems to be in-person dining at bars and restaurants, unfortunately. (Bars and Restaurants are a major small-business category in our state).


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 21, 2020)

HTC said:


> And that's the problem i was referring to in my previous post: 100M vaccines are like a drop in the ocean.
> 
> Lets say, for the sake of argument, those 3 companies have 10 manufacturing sites worldwide and can produce those 100M vaccines in ... say ... 2 weeks: wouldn't it be better to sell / license / whatever other method to ALL other companies in the world with manufacturing capabilities so that they could produce 100 times as many vaccines in a fraction of the time, so that the whole World could return to "normalcy" that much faster?
> 
> ...


I think you are missing the point, every Pharmaceutical company in the world can should they wish apply for a license to manufacturer it,  in the UK's case 70 million are for the future, they are not being manufactured  until global stocks are sufficient and are for future years, the 30 million are for our immediate use, that's one company producing their first batches for us, there are loads of companies with between them hundreds of manufacturing facilities worldwide, we are only in the queue for 30 million from that one company because we would be the patent holders as it is a product of the University of Oxford.

Edit:  I agree though, what we don't want is the PPE debacle that the world had in the early days of the pandemic where just a few countries bought out the global supply for a month or more, however, it is up to the Pharmaceutical companies if they decide they want to produce any vaccine and sadly they may look at which vaccine is the cheapest/most profitable to manufacture, as new vaccines come to the market some of these companies may produce several of them, the challenge as you pointed out is how quickly can every country get it in sufficient quantities and that will take time.





__





						List of pharmaceutical companies - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## HTC (Jul 21, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48898 confirmed infected --- 127 more
- 33769 recovered --- 222 more
- 1697 fatalities --- 6 more
- 423040 suspected cases --- 2405 more
- 1480458 tests taken --- 13796 more - last updated July 20th
- 1616 waiting for test results --- 56 more
- 35077 under watch from authorities --- 4 more
- 439 hospitalized --- *15 less*
- 62 in ICU --- 1 more


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 22, 2020)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/coronavirus-maryland-virginia-dc/2020/07/22/1055de24-cc25-11ea-bc6a-6841b28d9093_story.html
		




> In Baltimore, Mayor Bernard C. “Jack” Young (D) signed an executive order suspending indoor dining at bars and restaurants beginning at 5 p.m. Friday. The city’s health commissioner is also mandating that residents wear masks when they are outdoors and when social distancing of six feet is not possible.
> 
> Baltimore is the first jurisdiction in Maryland to restrict activities that were permitted under its reopening plan. The order reverts activity back to outdoor dining and carryout services only.



Maryland's biggest city, Baltimore, has  suspended indoor dining. Baltimore has one of the higher %Positive rates according to the chart from earlier.






Hospitalizations continue to track upwards now.


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## HTC (Jul 22, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 49150 confirmed infected --- 252 more
- 33999 recovered --- 230 more
- 1702 fatalities --- 5 more
- 425124 suspected cases --- 2084 more
- 1480458 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 20th
- 1606 waiting for test results --- *10 less*
- 35040 under watch from authorities --- *37 less*
- 439 hospitalized --- no change
- 59 in ICU --- *3 less*


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## W1zzard (Jul 23, 2020)

Post auto-merge has been disabled for this thread


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## lexluthermiester (Jul 23, 2020)

W1zzard said:


> Post auto-merge has been disabled for this thread


Out of curiosity, was it glitching?


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## W1zzard (Jul 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Out of curiosity, was it glitching?


nope, just unexpected mechanics 









						Technical Issues - TPU Main Site & Forum (2020)
					

Attachment thumbnails don't work in comments to news posts. Photos appear in full size no matter what.




					www.techpowerup.com


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2020)

Hmm, with hospitalizations tracking up in Maryland despite a positivity rate of 4.5% (more or less constant), clearly relying upon positivity numbers was a mistake in my logic earlier in this thread.





Another +23 hospitalizations in a day. I guess tracking hospitalizations alone is the main "gold standard" metric. But positivity rate and/or confirmed cases are both much quicker than hospitalization. So I still seek a "quicker" statistic that I can rely upon to predict trends.


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## HTC (Jul 23, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 49379 confirmed infected --- 229 more
- 34369 recovered --- 370 more
- 1705 fatalities --- 3 more
- 427203 suspected cases --- 2079 more
- 1496925 tests taken --- 16467 more - last updated July 21th
- 1545 waiting for test results --- *61 less*
- 34966 under watch from authorities --- *74 less*
- 431 hospitalized --- *8 less*
- 59 in ICU --- no change

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 15 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was July 8th.


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## HTC (Jul 24, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 49692 confirmed infected --- 313 more
- 34687 recovered --- 318 more
- 1712 fatalities --- 7 more
- 429254 suspected cases --- 2051 more
- 1512972 tests taken --- 16047 more - last updated July 22th
- 1544 waiting for test results --- *1 less*
- 34870 under watch from authorities --- *96 less*
- 420 hospitalized --- *11 less*
- 52 in ICU --- *7 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 16 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


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## Caring1 (Jul 25, 2020)

HTC said:


> Portugal's numbers have been updated:
> 
> - 49692 confirmed infected --- 313 more
> - 34687 recovered --- 318 more
> ...


It doesn't look good once they reach ICU. 7 less but 7 more deaths.


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## HTC (Jul 25, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> It doesn't look good once they reach ICU. 7 less but 7 more deaths.


Coincidence: there were many times where, despite X deaths, ICU number increased or had no change.


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## Tatty_One (Jul 25, 2020)

There are at least a number of medications available now that reduce the likelihood of a bad ending, some of which are quite cheap, just not sure if countries still with high fatality rates are using them.


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## HTC (Jul 25, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 49955 confirmed infected --- 263 more
- 35010 recovered --- 323 more
- 1716 fatalities --- 4 more
- 431111 suspected cases --- 1857 more
- 1528600 tests taken --- 15628 more - last updated July 23th
- 1564 waiting for test results --- 20 more
- 34980 under watch from authorities --- 110 more
- 410 hospitalized --- *10 less*
- 50 in ICU --- *2 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 17 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

As can be seen on the pic, they mistakenly swapped hospitalized and ICU, not only in number but also the chart.


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## HTC (Jul 26, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50164 confirmed infected --- 209 more
- 35217 recovered --- 207 more
- 1717 fatalities --- 1 more
- 432390 suspected cases --- 1279 more
- 1528600 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 23th
- 1429 waiting for test results --- *135 less*
- 35157 under watch from authorities --- 177 more
- 403 hospitalized --- *7 less*
- 48 in ICU --- *2 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 18 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th. We've also crossed 50K infected


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 26, 2020)

A lot more specifics are going on the Governor's twitter page.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1287046348026580992


> 58.3% of today’s new cases are Marylanders under the age of 40. The positivity rate among Marylanders under 35 is now 92.8% higher than the positivity rate for Marylanders age 35 and older. We are continuing to monitor the increase in hospitalizations statewide.



Therefore, the surge in new cases is probably due to the 35-and-under crowd here in Maryland.


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## Tatty_One (Jul 26, 2020)

Maybe the Governor needs to do a full lockdown for 2 weeks unless he has the courage to target that age group only, it's not surprising that under 35's are likely to have more "social" needs when freedom's are restored however unless it's restrained the trend is likely to continue.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 26, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Maybe the Governor needs to do a full lockdown for 2 weeks unless he has the courage to target that age group only, it's not surprising that under 35's are likely to have more "social" needs when freedom's are restored however unless it's restrained the trend is likely to continue.



There's talk of at least closing down eat-in restaurants / bars. Which is kind of insane that we're keeping those open right now as cases rise.


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## HTC (Jul 27, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50299 confirmed infected --- 135 more
- 35375 recovered --- 158 more
- 1719 fatalities --- 2 more
- 433461 suspected cases --- 1071 more
- 1528600 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 23th
- 1397 waiting for test results --- *32 less*
- 35120 under watch from authorities --- *37 less*
- 414 hospitalized --- 11 more
- 45 in ICU --- *3 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 19 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th. Though with some "hiccups", both hospitalized and ICU continue their dropping trend.

Those 19 parishes that had stricter restrictions VS the rest of the country are having improvements in their numbers: though the majority of new cases is STILL in those parishes, continuing this improvement will see them having the stricter restrictions lifted, thus "enjoying" what the rest of the country currently has.

That said, we can't get complacent just because our numbers are looking better because we may find ourselves with a situation where we're forced to go back and impose heavier restrictions again, and NOBODY wants that. What's currently happening in Spain is a big enough example of that.


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## EarthDog (Jul 27, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> There's talk of at least closing down eat-in restaurants / bars. Which is kind of insane that we're keeping those open right now as cases rise.


If only there was a coordinated National response. 

Ohio has been rising as well, but at least saturday we didn't break a record. Here is to hoping that trend continues.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> If only there was a coordinated National response.



Indeed. I may sound like a broken record over this... but I95 and a major Railroad connects Maryland and Florida (and all states in between) together. What happens in Florida will inevitably spread to here. I guess Ohio has the Ohio Turnpike, which implicitly connects Chicago / Washington DC and Chicago / New York together. Any COVID uptick that happens here (or in Chicago...) will probably spread to your place too.

Lots of roads and connections between our cities. What happens in one spot in America will spread to others.


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## Vayra86 (Jul 27, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Hmm, with hospitalizations tracking up in Maryland despite a positivity rate of 4.5% (more or less constant), clearly relying upon positivity numbers was a mistake in my logic earlier in this thread.
> 
> View attachment 163189
> 
> Another +23 hospitalizations in a day. I guess tracking hospitalizations alone is the main "gold standard" metric. But positivity rate and/or confirmed cases are both much quicker than hospitalization. So I still seek a "quicker" statistic that I can rely upon to predict trends.



You won't find it, countless virologists and epidemiologists have gone before you.

The whole point of this pandemic has been, from the beginning until today and even going forward, that you will always be too late, or you will be too strict too early and lose motivation among the populace too early as well.

You can only hit this responsively, really, I think many countries are slowly starting to figure that out. Maybe we already know it, but really don't want to.

We Humans simply cannot fathom the basic principle of exponential growth. It doesn't work in our brain. You can find a similar problem with our climate discussion. It will go very wrong before we start taking it seriously, and really, it has already gone quite wrong as it is, look at us. Its practically January 2020 for climate and we still act like it only happens in China  Overwhelming evidence says we won't catch either ghost before things turn to shit massively. India is a good example right now, of that... The society simply has no mechanisms to truly provide a solution to push the curve down, and out. Other countries have all the tools, but refuse to use them, or use them too late, or too little.

Right now in Netherlands I think we're slowly creeping towards a second wave of some sort, and you can see the public push for more measures to keep pretending all is well. You know what I mean. I'm going to predict that by next Tuesday we will have a limited mask requirement in public spaces beyond public traffic. All in an effort to keep an economy going that is rotten to the core to begin with... and counterpart to our other major problems. We just don't want to know the harsh reality of it all, that Is what I'm seeing.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> We Humans simply cannot fathom the basic principle of exponential growth. It doesn't work in our brain.



Nah. Anyone who plays with diodes or BJT transistors understands I = C * exp(V).  Throw down an op-amp, and you can start playing with logarithms (reverse exponents), or multiplication with this.

Exponential growth is really easy. Its estimated as "all efforts don't matter" vs "all efforts matter". If everything you deploy works, then it it mattered. If everything you deploy didn't work, then nothing mattered. Its a hard cutoff function.

A diode will "not conduct" at 0.5V (it actually does conduct, but EEs assume it doesn't), but typically lets through a (near infinite) current at 1V or so (at least, until the diode burns itself out). Similarly, this virus will grow exponentially if our efforts keep R > 1.0. But as soon as our efforts drop the R value < 1.0, then the virus retreats.

Its actually really simple. Get R below 1.0, and we're gold. But if R > 1.0, we die. Hard-cutoff is how electrical engineers understand exponential growth, and its good enough understanding to create the computers you and I are using to communicate with. So somebody out there (electrical engineers) got this exponential growth fully understood man .

Or to put it into EE terms: the exponential growth of a diode is commonly estimated as "Diode is off below 0.7V" and "Diode is on above 0.7V" (+/- a bit due to internal variance). Similarly, growth of the virus is above R > 1.0, while decline of the virus is R < 1.0. That's it.


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## Vayra86 (Jul 27, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Nah. Anyone who plays with diodes or BJT transistors understands I = C * exp(V).  Throw down an op-amp, and you can start playing with logarithms (reverse exponents), or multiplication with this.
> 
> Exponential growth is really easy. Its estimated as "all efforts don't matter" vs "all efforts matter". If everything you deploy works, then it it mattered. If everything you deploy didn't work, then nothing mattered. Its a hard cutoff function.
> 
> ...



And yet in multiple countries R numbers are royally above 1, even in the Netherlands, but we still refuse to switch quickly to lockdown again. Gotta keep those rats runnin'


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> And yet in multiple countries R numbers are royally above 1, even in the Netherlands, but we still refuse to switch quickly to lockdown again. Gotta keep those rats runnin'



That's true. I think part of the reason however, is because people over-complicate the explanation of this disease. I've shared with you my "hard cutoff explanation". Hopefully more people can utilize this method to explain COVID19 to others.

We don't have to be "technically correct", even in the EE-terms, to do useful things. A diode is NOT a hard-cutoff function. We just "estimate" the hard-cutoff function because its easier to understand than exponential growth. By describing the problem as hard-cutoff (everything either matters, or everything doesn't matter), many more people can come to understand what is going on here. These simpler models can be useful, even if they're less accurate than the reality.


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## harm9963 (Jul 27, 2020)

Undocumented wont get check out and keep on working sick, underbelly uncheck uncounted  and spreading .





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Undocumented wont get check out and keep on working sick, underbelly uncheck uncounted  and spreading .
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well, if they go to the hospital, there is a chance that ICE will pick them up and deport them. Better to stay sick at home than be separated from your family...


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## harm9963 (Jul 27, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Well, if they go to the hospital, there is a chance that ICE will pick them up and deport them. Better to stay sick at home than be separated from your family...


 
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...exas-hispanic-data-harris-county-15411614.php


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## HTC (Jul 28, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50410 confirmed infected --- 111 more
- 35626 recovered --- 251 more
- 1722 fatalities --- 3 more
- 435789 suspected cases --- 2328 more
- 1561919 tests taken --- 33319 more - last updated July 26th
- 1596 waiting for test results --- 199 more
- 35355 under watch from authorities --- 215 more
- 402 hospitalized --- *12 less*
- 41 in ICU --- *4 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 20 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th. Though with some "hiccups", both hospitalized and ICU continue their dropping trend, as can be seen in the chart.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 28, 2020)

Maryland's hospitalization numbers have leveled off for now. No major changes to our laws / reopening phase yet however.


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## Tatty_One (Jul 28, 2020)




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## Vayra86 (Jul 28, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> That's true. I think part of the reason however, is because people over-complicate the explanation of this disease. I've shared with you my "hard cutoff explanation". Hopefully more people can utilize this method to explain COVID19 to others.
> 
> We don't have to be "technically correct", even in the EE-terms, to do useful things. A diode is NOT a hard-cutoff function. We just "estimate" the hard-cutoff function because its easier to understand than exponential growth. By describing the problem as hard-cutoff (everything either matters, or everything doesn't matter), many more people can come to understand what is going on here. These simpler models can be useful, even if they're less accurate than the reality.



Yes, I would agree we overcomplicate things a little bit, then again it is all new to everyone. About hard cutoff, do we really know that is how it will work? We only pretended to have some form of control in some places a few  months back, other than that, this thing has been going its merry way. We also now know, that the measures required to reach R below one, are pretty destructive. Its a choice of evils, and that is what I mean with 'we don't understand exponential growth' - our world is not exponential in most ways. Our salaries aren't, for example, or our intelligence, our strength. Sure, we can measure exponential things and then understand how they work, but in our basic thought we really don't - other things take precedence that we feel are more pressing at each moment, until we reach a point where we cannot deny there is a problem that needs fixing. That is why the first lockdowns took too long to start, we could have seen it coming for months.

I've said this before in this and other topics on the subject, it is a capital mistake to just look at the cold data and make policy on it. Behavioral psychology and social considerations are at least as important, if not everything. This is about people management and crowd management, it is bigger than the individual, much like our other pressing issues.


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## moproblems99 (Jul 28, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> I've said this before in this and other topics on the subject, it is a capital mistake to just look at the cold data and make policy on it. Behavioral psychology and social considerations are at least as important, if not everything. This is about people management and crowd management, it is bigger than the individual, much like our other pressing issues.



This is one of the most sensible nuggets in this thread.  The broader scope of public health goes way beyond deaths and hospitalizations.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 28, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> About hard cutoff, do we really know that is how it will work?



Hard-cutoff estimations of exponential growth is in very common use in Electrical Engineering. The math is the same, I don't see any reason why not. Think about it graphically, if it helps.







> We only pretended to have some form of control in some places a few months back, other than that, this thing has been going its merry way.



Given the "Hard Cutoff" estimation, we're either on the left-side of the hard cutoff, or the right side. Either everything matters (because we've reached the left-side), or nothing mattered (because we've reached the right side).



> That is why the first lockdowns took too long to start, we could have seen it coming for months.



The hard-cutoff estimate more or less proves the policy issue at play here.

Masks, Lockdowns, Vaccines... it doesn't "matter" how you get to the left. If you're on the left-side of the hard cutoff, you are winning vs the virus, and no further action is necessary. All policies that "further push you left" don't help, because you're already behind the hard cutoff and the virus is in remission.

If you're on the right-side of the cutoff, it doesn't matter how many lockdowns, masks, or vaccines you deploy. It feels like nothing is working... until you suddenly shift over to the left side and "something worked". It doesn't matter how hard you work, because as long as you're on the right side, infections, deaths, and hospitalizations continue to rise exponentially.

EDIT: Here's another paint image I whipped up to explain the economics.






> Sure, we can measure exponential things and then understand how they work, but in our basic thought we really don't - other things take precedence that we feel are more pressing at each moment, until we reach a point where we cannot deny there is a problem that needs fixing.



That's where "Hard Cutoff" becomes a better description. Humans understand "Hard Cutoffs" since its an every-day occurance.

If you wanted to break the world record 100m sprint time, what do you have to run? 9.57s will be a new world record. 9.59 doesn't matter, you were slower than Bolt from 2012 Olympics. A 9.59 second run is the same as a 20-second run. We've got a hard-cutoff before you get entered into the record books.

From the perspective of "set a new record", we have a hard cutoff. "Nothing matters" if you're above the cutoff, and no one really cares how much you beat the old record by. Even winning by 0.01 seconds would be enough.

Its a bit of a "lie" because hard-cutoffs aren't reality. The "reality" is exponential growth. But... yeah. I can see where some people haven't practiced their logarithms and may need a different, simpler model to understand things.


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## moproblems99 (Jul 28, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Its a bit of a "lie" because hard-cutoffs aren't reality.



So I'll take a piece from The Witcher: The Lesser of Two Evils teachings.  Let's look at the virus:

Option 1: Do nothing.  IE: protect the Economy.  Lots of people die because we prioritize the economy and the good of the country over the people.

Option 2: Shutdown.  IE: Protect the people.  The economy (and country) tumble into chaos because we value the person over the country.

So which is the lesser of two evils?  As the lessons from the Witcher teach us, it doesn't matter because both options are 'evil'.  Ultimately, the reality of both options is that lots of people are going to die and the economy is going to crash because neither option is viable.  In option 1, the economy will eventually die as people can't be replaced fast enough.  In option 2, people die because of other factors like starvation, skirmishes, etc.

Both options (and reality) suffer from the fact that an effective vaccine isn't achieved.  Which reading between Fauci's lines seems likely.  Little bits are trickling out that the vaccine will not be effective enough.  Just like we don't have vaccines for colds or the flu (flu vaccines are essentially 'luck').

Edit: This is the US's fate because we have one side pushing option 1 and one side pushing option 2.  In reality, each option will fail and since neither will work with the other, a viable solution is not being worked towards.  Shutdowns will only work if they last forever.  As soon as you open interstate/international travel.  The process repeats.  The country and world does not have the money to play shutdown whack-a-mole all the time.

If we could actually get real numbers (no double counts, no fake death reports of Covid because they were in a car accident), we would find the death rate is not terribly significantly over the flu.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 28, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> If we could actually get real numbers (no double counts, no fake death reports of Covid because they were in a car accident), we would find the death rate is not terribly significantly over the flu.



In case the international audience is confused: We've got popular billionares like Elon Musk spouting bullshit like this in America, and huge swaths of the population under control of such information. The misinformation in America is huge, and a huge portion of our population doesn't even realize it.

@moproblems99: If you seriously think we're overcounting COVID19 deaths, then you haven't done your research. We're undercounting them by virtually every measure. Furthermore, deaths are a lagging indicator. Just wait a few weeks and you'll see the mortality rate increase as it catches up to the infected. The mortality rate declines whenever there's a big spike (and yes, the USA is undergoing a massive, exponential spike right now), and the mortality rate increases when the spikes subside. Its the nature of the beast.

The flu does *not* fill up Texas and Florida's hospitals each year. Any comparisons between the Flu and COVID19 are insane.






						56 Florida hospitals at ICU capacity
					

Hospital intensive care units at 48 Florida hospitals reached capacity as of July 10, according to data from the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration.




					www.beckershospitalreview.com


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 28, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> In case the international audience is confused: We've got popular billionares like Elon Musk spouting bullshit like this in America, and huge swaths of the population under control of such information. The misinformation in America is huge, and a huge portion of our population doesn't even realize it.
> 
> @moproblems99: If you seriously think we're overcounting COVID19 deaths, then you haven't done your research. We're undercounting them by virtually every measure. Furthermore, deaths are a lagging indicator. Just wait a few weeks and you'll see the mortality rate increase as it catches up to the infected. The mortality rate declines whenever there's a big spike (and yes, the USA is undergoing a massive, exponential spike right now), and the mortality rate increases when the spikes subside. Its the nature of the beast.
> 
> ...


@dragontamer5788 , way to run with something I didn't say.  Where did I say we are overcounting deaths?  The only time I mentioned the word deaths was talking about car accident deaths being reported as Covid deaths.  For which there are reports of happening.  If want to have a real conversation, please leave your preconceived bias at the door Thank you very much. There are more numbers than just 'death count' that make up mortality rates.  Let's try again when you can take your know it all cap off and climb down off that soap box.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 28, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Where did I say we are overcounting deaths?





> If we could actually get real numbers (no double counts, no fake death reports of Covid because they were in a car accident)



But ultimately, your point was:



> we would find the death rate is not terribly significantly over the flu.



Your statement is horrifyingly and dangerously false. The fact that you make the statement seriously is a great example of why Americans refuse to believe we even have a problem right now.



> If want to have a real conversation



EDIT: FYI: I actually don't want to have a conversation on the issue, which is why I'm responding the way I am. You're welcome to believe in whatever you want. I've had enough discussions and conversations on the subject and have lost all hope in being able to convince people that their opinions are wrong through discussion. Believe in whatever you want, I'm simply pointing out that I disagree with the statement you made extremely strongly.

Not just this webpage, but on Reddit, in real life, with my friends and family. Its all the same discussion over and over again. It gets boring after a while and I'm in no mood to actually engage.


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## EarthDog (Jul 28, 2020)

Covid Maps thread, gents...maps. Don't get your wee wee whacked over this.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 29, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> But ultimately, your point was:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well, too bad.  The truth doesn't care about feelings.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Your statement is horrifyingly and dangerously false. The fact that you make the statement seriously is a great example of why Americans refuse to believe we even have a problem right now.



Our problem isn't deaths per se.  It is clogging the hospitals.  Or in NYs case, not using the resources they had.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 29, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Covid Maps thread, gents...maps. Don't get your wee wee whacked over this.



Living the dream in Florida


Confirmed
442K
+8,892Deaths
6,116
+77


----------



## Fourstaff (Jul 29, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> The country and world does not have the money to play shutdown whack-a-mole all the time.


South Korea is successful doing whack-a-mole, Japan was doing fine until recently (too many moles). Both countries didn't go through massive lockdown cycles, life still went on (in a more controlled manner). You can add Taiwan to that list too.



moproblems99 said:


> If we could actually get real numbers (no double counts, no fake death reports of Covid because they were in a car accident), we would find the death rate is not terribly significantly over the flu.



I think the problem is not so much the death rate, but the disabilities of the survivors. Statistics is quoting a few severe disabilities per death recorded. It is going to be a massive drag on the economy and resources moving forward if US ends up with a few mln additional disabled people.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 29, 2020)

Fourstaff said:


> I think the problem is not so much the death rate, but the disabilities of the survivors. Statistics is quoting a few severe disabilities per death recorded. It is going to be a massive drag on the economy and resources moving forward if US ends up with a few mln additional disabled people.



Precisely, we are focusing on the wrong statistics.



Fourstaff said:


> South Korea is successful doing whack-a-mole, Japan was doing fine until recently (too many moles). Both countries didn't go through massive lockdown cycles, life still went on (in a more controlled manner). You can add Taiwan to that list too.



That too.  The lockdowns are not necessary as demonstrated by the above.  We can't afford it as we already did a lockdown unsuccessfully and half the country will likely try another.


----------



## Fourstaff (Jul 29, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Precisely, we are focusing on the wrong statistics.


Deaths is a very good proxy for disabilities though. Testing for disabilities is resource intensive and time consuming, issuing death certificates is just another Tuesday.




moproblems99 said:


> That too.  The lockdowns are not necessary as demonstrated by the above.  We can't afford it as we already did a lockdown unsuccessfully and half the country will likely try another.


We will find out in the coming weeks if Japan is successful combating wave #2. If they are successful, selective lockdown may become the model response to the COVID problem. 

With so many unemployed, the economy has a very high chance of crashing with or without another lockdown. Might as well try to do a proper lockdown to prevent more deaths.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 29, 2020)

Fourstaff said:


> Deaths is a very good proxy for disabilities though. Testing for disabilities is resource intensive and time consuming, issuing death certificates is just another Tuesday.



Difficult to determine permanence at this stage anyway.



Fourstaff said:


> We will find out in the coming weeks if Japan is successful combating wave #2. If they are successful, selective lockdown may become the model response to the COVID problem.
> 
> With so many unemployed, the economy has a very high chance of crashing with or without another lockdown. Might as well try to do a proper lockdown to prevent more deaths.



That depends if you want to put the economy out of its misery or do our best to bring it back.  As you said, a proper lockdown is pretty much a nail in the coffin.  A tiered approach based on risk factor is likely going to be the only way.  Similar to professional sports, if you don't want to take part, that is your choice but you're likely going to have to deal with standard unemployment to make do.  Tough choices are going to have be made.  Gathering together to burn buildings and chant Kumbaya isn't likely going to cut it.


----------



## EarthDog (Jul 29, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> The lockdowns are not necessary as demonstrated by the above.


The biggest difference between these regions and the US is the willingness and sheer number(%) of people willing and being told to wear masks. So... sure, life can go on without strict lockdowns, but you need to get the buy in of the people. It seems a lot of people in that region wear masks almost for giggles so it's easier. It's a bit scary to see how wearing a mask was politicized and polarized here in the states. There are angry as F people on both sides of the fence.


moproblems99 said:


> Living the dream in Florida


Like, the dreams you get when you take those malaria drugs? 

Anyhoo... maps and data, gents/staff(lol)...looks like we're trending to flatten things again.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 29, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Like, the dreams you get when you take those malaria drugs?



I wish.  I only have the normal stuff.  Give me the good stuff since I don't think Elon is going to honor my request for a shot to Mars.



EarthDog said:


> It's a bit scary to see how wearing a mask was politicized and polarized here in the states. There are angry as F people on both sides of the fence.



Well, I can see why some people feel certain ways.  All you have to do is look at some people in this thread reaction to see why others just say FU.  It takes some humility some times to work together and many people just aren't willing at this point.  I'd presume if this wasn't an election year it may have turned out a little different.  Both sides are extra turnt right now but that is still likely overly optimistic.  It's always 'the other sides' fault.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2020)

---------

Its clear why Musk tweets the propaganda he does. Because he wants to keep his factory open. Its pretty clear, and somewhat understandable. Where it crosses the line is that Mr. Musk adds propaganda to the moment, and people like you get wrapped up in his "just a flu" tweets and "false positives" mischaracterizations.

Actually trying to logic it out doesn't work. Because Mr. Musk has more ethos than me in your mind. Instead, the only approach I have to even try to convince you, is to first pull Musk down from his pedestal, and then *maybe*, and only maybe then, will you possibly listen to me. Otherwise, you just continue to follow in your celebrity Iron-man wannabe.

Mr. Musks actions to reopen his factory against county regulations (1 week early), has already led to consequences. His propaganda continues to pollute the internet, but is essential in his long term strategy to keep the public on his side (ie: his side of keeping his factory open). Yeah, I'm pissed about it. Who wouldn't be? Here's a false-engineer using his ethos to mislead the public into his selfish gains against the greater good.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 29, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Mr. Musk adds propaganda to the moment, and people like you get wrapped up in his "just a flu" tweets and "false positives" mischaracterizations



Hey cool story bro.  You have no idea what I was going to say.

Edit:
You have proven you can't get over your false assumptions of me so why not just leave it to stats if you can't play nice in the sandbox.  The only tweet I have read of Musk's this year is the one where he was surprised NYPost was still around.  I can't even remember the right words


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2020)

The flu killed 35,000 people after infecting 35 million people in 2018-2019 winter season. (2020 season is weird because of the lockdowns, so I prefer the 2018-2019 season). https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

COVID19 has killed 151K people during a lockdown after infecting 4.4 Million (USA current stats). I don't care how many "double-countings" you think there are, there's no comparison to the death rate. We're not even anywhere close to done yet (and *most* of those infections occurred in the past 2 weeks mind you, not enough time for most of these newly infected to die yet over COVID19)


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 29, 2020)

This isn't the thread for arguing about which person has the wrong opinion. If you really must do that here - *do it with cold hard stats*. Opinions on right and wrong are better suited for the lounge thread, and I welcome folks to post there:



			https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/page-97#post-4317374


----------



## HTC (Jul 29, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50613 confirmed infected --- 203 more
- 35875 recovered --- 249 more
- 1725 fatalities --- 3 more
- 437976 suspected cases --- 2187 more
- 1561919 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 26th
- 1600 waiting for test results --- 4 more
- 35339 under watch from authorities --- 4 more
- 403 hospitalized --- 1 more
- 43 in ICU --- 2 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 21 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

The vast majority of new cases are still in the Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region: of the 203 new cases, 164 were in this region.



dragontamer5788 said:


> The flu does *not* fill up Texas and Florida's hospitals each year. Any comparisons between the Flu and COVID19 are insane.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not just Florida but anywhere, AFAIK.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2020)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-adjusts-key-metric-as-officials-monitor-future-move-to-next-recovery-phase/2020/07/29/2f18fe04-d1a2-11ea-8d32-1ebf4e9d8e0d_story.html
		




> Under the order, masks will be required at all businesses, commercial office buildings and locations that have public areas, including houses of worship, casinos, gyms and personal service establishments. It goes beyond Hogan’s previous order, which required masks inside grocery stores, pharmacies, retail stores, restaurants and when using public transportation.





> Hogan said contact-tracing data indicates that gatherings of family and friends have been a large source of recent infections: In the past six weeks, 44 percent of the people were at family gatherings and 23 percent had attended a house party.



Hmm, an expansion of the mask rule will be taking effect soon. I guess I haven't gotten a public haircut, I haven't gone to church (still under the emergency ruling by the local bishop), certainly haven't gone to a casino, and run around for my exercise not a closed gym. I don't think my routine changes at all with this new mask requirement. I've been wearing a mask to work already. So I guess it was technically legal for my boss to keep the area mask free. Since masks were already in wide use in Maryland, I'm not sure if this additional mask order would help at all.


----------



## HTC (Jul 30, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50868 confirmed infected --- 255 more
- 36140 recovered --- 265 more
- 1727 fatalities --- 2 more
- 440046 suspected cases --- 2070 more
- 1591873 tests taken --- 29954 more - last updated July 28th
- 1616 waiting for test results --- 16 more
- 35741 under watch from authorities --- 402 more
- 403 hospitalized --- no change
- 42 in ICU --- *1 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 22 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## HTC (Jul 31, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 51072 confirmed infected --- 204 more
- 36483 recovered --- 343 more
- 1735 fatalities --- 8 more
- 442088 suspected cases --- 2042 more
- 1591873 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 28th
- 1650 waiting for test results --- 34 more
- 35757 under watch from authorities --- 16 more
- 381 hospitalized --- *22 less*
- 41 in ICU --- *1 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 23 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

Those 19 parishes that had their restrictions increased due to small but persistent outbreaks have seen their restrictions become less pronounced and almost on par with the rest of the country.


----------



## harm9963 (Jul 31, 2020)

Texas led the county in deaths for the month, harris county  should be its own state!








						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com


----------



## Caring1 (Aug 1, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> It doesn't look good once they reach ICU. 7 less but 7 more deaths.





HTC said:


> Coincidence: there were many times where, despite X deaths, ICU number increased or had no change.


Yet the stats still show on average, deaths are equal to or greater than the decrease in ICU numbers.


----------



## HTC (Aug 1, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> Yet the stats still show on average, deaths are equal to or greater than the decrease in ICU numbers.



Just to "contradict" you, there were 8 fatalities yesterday, but 1 less ICU and 22 less hospitalized: like i said, coincidence.


----------



## xman2007 (Aug 1, 2020)

Covid-19: The emperors new clothes 2020 edition.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 1, 2020)

Maryland's %Positive score remains constant throughout this entire hospitalization rise.

From the Governor's office:



> *CONTACT TRACING DATA.* In addition to identifying individuals who may have been infected with COVID-19, Maryland is now using contact tracing data to find patterns of behavior, and to identify where and how the virus is spreading. The governor announced the following findings based on recent interviews conducted with COVID-19 patients:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Additional mask order by the Governor: https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Gatherings-10th-AMENDED-7.29.20.pdf

We're still basically in phase 2, aside from the additional mask requirement. 50% retail capacity, 50% church capacity. Etc. etc. Where "capacity" is defined by the local fire code.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 1, 2020)

England is pretty much fully open apart from schools which will be September and Gym's, Bowling Alley's and some beautician treatments which were all due to re-open today, Boris announced yesterday that these openings are postponed with immediate effect as there have been a few spikes of infections, mainly in the North of the country, none bad enough for a lockdown but local authorities there have legislation to back a hold on gatherings and external family visits to households for a couple of weeks as house parties and multiple household family gatherings seem to be the problem.  

R rate is hovering on 1 as a nationwide average, I like the idea of localised intervention, if it works it might stop more severe lockdowns that would likely be more widespread.


----------



## Caring1 (Aug 2, 2020)

HTC said:


> Just to "contradict" you, there were 8 fatalities yesterday, but 1 less ICU and 22 less hospitalized: like i said, coincidence.


That doesn't contradict what I said, it backs it up.


----------



## HTC (Aug 2, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> That doesn't contradict what I said, it backs it up.



The following are from a while ago but are just an example of fatalities number being lower than ICU drop number. Due to the lag in times between becoming hospitalized and being moved to ICU, and being moved to ICU and dying / recovering, fatalities can be smaller than the drop in ICU numbers just as easily as they can be higher.



HTC said:


> View attachment 162462 View attachment 162463
> 
> - 1682 fatalities --- 3 more
> - 67 in ICU --- *5 less*



As for yesterday's numbers, Portugal's Health Site didn't publish them, which is why i didn't update the stats: this is a 1st for them, as far as i can recall.


----------



## harm9963 (Aug 2, 2020)

Not surprise  at all ,  one of the reason Harris County blowing up, spin and truth  , really sad .








						Mexico records third-highest coronavirus death rate globally, behind Brazil and US; sixth in reported cases
					

Mexico reported the third-highest coronavirus-related death rate in the world on Saturday, trailing behind the United States and Brazil, with 46,688 deaths, according to John Hopkins University data.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## HTC (Aug 2, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, *before yesterday's* numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 51463 confirmed infected --- 391 more
- 36984 recovered --- 501 more
- 17385 fatalities --- 3 more
- 445193 suspected cases --- 3105 more
- 1622951 tests taken --- 31078 more - last updated July 30th
- 1547 waiting for test results --- *103 less*
- 36148 under watch from authorities --- 391 more
- 378 hospitalized --- *3 less*
- 41 in ICU --- no change

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 25 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

In the above pics, it's two days instead of one because they weren't updated yesterday, for some reason i'm not aware of. The following pics are from our situation report of yesterday and today, respectively:


----------



## harm9963 (Aug 2, 2020)

Tale of two States, spin the truth !


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 3, 2020)

I decided to add a bit more information today by clicking around + using some mild photoshop to put the stats all next to each other. Hospitalizations have a slight decline over the last two days. Deaths have remained more or less constant: no "blip" upwards yet.

As you can see, the various statistics: Number of Cases, %Positive, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, have very weak correlations.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 3, 2020)

There is a belief currently that the UK, but predominantly England is at the limit of lockdown easing whilst continuing to prevent a 2nd spike, infection rates have increased but most of those increases are in a small number of areas and are being managed locally........ not too significant at this stage but would be if unmanaged, the national R rate is hovering on R1 currently but we have no room to manoeuvre now.

There is talk that if schools all go back next month they can only do so if something that is currently eased is locked down again, the belief is that if schools add to what we already have unlocked we will spike a 2nd wave which we cannot afford with winter looming, the talk is that bar's and restaurants may have to close again.  Statistics show that there is a swathe of the population that are ignoring safeguards, the single biggest setting that is encouraging Mr Covid back in strength is within households (the most difficult to control), too many multiple households converging at a single household for large family gatherings or house parties and not following Social Distancing guidelines, this is mainly in inner city areas, the 2nd biggest setting is pubs and restaurants and mainly 18 - 35 year olds.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> 18 - 35 year olds



You know, what I find most interesting in this 'second' wave is that most of the people causing the new spikes are from the groups typically preaching lockdowns, mandatory masks, and social distancing.  Then they go out and ignore their own shouts.


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 3, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> You know, what I find most interesting in this 'second' wave is that most of the people causing the new spikes are from the groups typically espousing lockdowns, mandatory masks, and social distancing.  Then they go out and ignore their own shouts.


Are they though? I thought I read something about mainly the young people who are going out to bars and those who are NOT wearing masks and eschewing social distancing that are getting affected and causing additional community spread...But this, parties and gatherings, etc is what I read are a significant part of it... not those following the guidelines. The data we have shows the average infected age dropped.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> But this, parties and gatherings, etc is what I read are a significant part of it....



Does it matter where they go if they are being hypocrites?

Edit: I just find it interesting that the (sometimes) most vocal people about these policies are the ones that seem to be ignoring them most. Pretty neat graph below but too bad it is pretty much already out of date:


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 3, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Does it matter where they go if they are being hypocrites?


I think you missed my point. They are NOT being hypocrites. It isn't the mask wearing and social distancing crowd that is spurring the increase in infections.

You said espousing lockdowns/masks/sd... espousing means to adopt or support. It's those who are NOT wearing masks and social distancing who are going to high risk things (bars, parties, etc) that is part of the increase... the youth of the country.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> I think you missed my point. They are NOT being hypocrites. It isn't the mask wearing and social distancing crowd that is spurring the increase in infections.
> 
> You said espousing lockdowns/masks/sd... espousing means to adopt or support. It's those who are NOT wearing masks and social distancing who are going to high risk things (bars, parties, etc) that is part of the increase.



Except I said they typically belong to the groups.  As in: 18 to 35 year olds typically have hot dogs for lunch.  The fact that some choose to have hamburgers on a given day doesn't mean they don't belong to the group that typically eats hot dogs.

Edit: Again, there is no feasible way to prove person x said where masks on this day and then went out to a bar without one the next.  I'm just saying, the people from this group typically chant these mantras so the most so it is surprising they are the ones getting infected more now.  I am simply wondering why as you can see through most of that graph above, they remained less affected until now.


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 3, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Except I said they typically belong to the groups.  As in: 18 to 35 year olds typically have hot dogs for lunch.  The fact that some choose to have hamburgers on a given day doesn't mean they don't belong to the group that typically eats hot dogs.


Sorry wut? What are you saying here? I've been a bit off today so it could be me.

All I am saying is that your assertion that people who wear masks, lockdown, and socially distant are causing the uptick is wrong. Florida is ecosystem of its own... DeSantis fucked up big there so its just a cesspool of infection. 



moproblems99 said:


> I just find it interesting that the (sometimes) most vocal people about these policies are the ones that seem to be ignoring them most.


I find this statement to be false. lol These people aren't the problem.










						Four Reasons Why Coronavirus Cases Are Increasing But Deaths Aren’t—Yet
					

America is well into the second wave of COVID-19, but there hasn't been a resurgence of deaths. We need to ask why not?




					www.forbes.com
				





> The final theory holds that behavior has changed differently for different segments of the population, which are at different risk of dying. According to this theory, early in the epidemic everyone (more or less) participated in the widespread social distancing that curtailed the first wave, perhaps due to the fact that compliance was legally compelled through business closure and shelter-in-place orders. According to this theory, now that businesses and beaches (and restaurants in many places) are open, younger people have resumed their traditional summertime activities while age groups at greater risk for severe disease or death are not, leading to a surge in cases among the young, but not the old.
> 
> There is lots of anecdotal evidence supporting this theory, including widespread reports of young adults congregating in large gatherings, not complying with social distancing guidelines, and even attending parties with the intent of being infected



Anyhoo, I hope I understood your point. I simply don't agree considering the information we have.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Sorry wut? What are you saying here? I've been a bit off today so it could be me.
> 
> All I am saying is that your assertion that people who wear masks, lockdown, and socially distant are causing the uptick is wrong.



I don't think it came out right on my end either.  In any case, it isn't really important.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> DeSantis fucked up big there



This is where I disagree.  Florida should have been right with New York because right when this was spreading is when the big push of snow birds happen after the holidays.  Not to mention, when New York got locked down, they all came down to escape.  We shouldn't have been delayed by three to four months.  It should have been a week or two at most.


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 3, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> This is where I disagree.  Florida should have been right with New York because right when this was spreading is when the big push of snow birds happen after the holidays.  Not to mention, when New York got locked down, they all came down to escape.  We shouldn't have been delayed by three to four months.  It should have been a week or two at most.


LOL, that man borked it all up... the results speak for themselves - the chronology is painful.... we'll agree to disagree.


I'm just amazed throughout all of these threads how there are so many different interpretations for the same data, lol.


----------



## harm9963 (Aug 3, 2020)

spin city !


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 3, 2020)

I can only speak from my experience in one part of the UK, but I see no issues in people following the guidelines with the odd exception from the 50+ age range, whether that be in a Supermarket, on the streets or in a bar or restaurant, where face coverings are required, most of any age are following the guidelines.  I see less dedication to the guidelines in bars from the 18-35 age range, in fact very few appear to be at all after their 3rd beer!  Much of the wider issues relate to large multi generation households, mainly from the Asian communities, some here say it is no coincidence that in the North within these pockets of  "spikes" additional restrictions were imposed last Friday night, the day before the Muslim's Eid celebrations would have started.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> I'm just amazed throughout all of these threads how there are so many different interpretations for the same data, lol.



You can pull any belief you want out of any data if you try hard enough


----------



## Vayra86 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> I think you missed my point. They are NOT being hypocrites. It isn't the mask wearing and social distancing crowd that is spurring the increase in infections.
> 
> You said espousing lockdowns/masks/sd... espousing means to adopt or support. It's those who are NOT wearing masks and social distancing who are going to high risk things (bars, parties, etc) that is part of the increase... the youth of the country.



I think you might be surprised. Its easy to point at an age group, but we are all human and we all have our needs. We also have a tendency to be blind for our slight mistakes and 'I deserve this, don't I' moments.

My belief is that the only big contributor is population density. You can manage so much, but this is crowd management with a distancing requirement. Its a complete paradox in its own right and its an illusion that you can suddenly fit the same number of people with triple the distance between them, within the same space. If we really wanted to achieve that, we would require strict schedules and I haven't any of those. Its the reality we don't want to hear. Its why we flee into these arguments 'he didn't do this or that'... no... that kind of control is an illusion, a fantasy.

This belief is based on one simple truth nobody can deny. The only time we managed to kill the curve, was with a lockdown. Everything you see now is just a desperate struggle to prove that wrong. And we won't win it.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> I think you might be surprised. Its easy to point at an age group, but we are all human and we all have our needs. We also have a tendency to be blind for our slight mistakes and 'I deserve this, don't I' moments.



When you live in a state like Florida, we get to see it all.  Come on, we have a dedicated site that rivals People of Walmart.  You forget that Florida is where everyone from every other state has had enough shit goes.  People are already on the end of the leash when they first get here.


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 3, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> You can pull any belief you want out of any data if you try hard enough


I know.. I've witnessed it throughout..... and it is continuing. 



Vayra86 said:


> I think you might be surprised. Its easy to point at an age group, but we are all human and we all have our needs. We also have a tendency to be blind for our slight mistakes and 'I deserve this, don't I' moments.


Please understand that my only point of contention is against the assertion that those are preaching and following guide lines are primarily NOT the ones causing spread.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Please understand that my only point of contention is against the assertion that those are preaching and following guide lines are primarily NOT the ones causing spread.



Except that wasn't what I said.  It wasn't as best explained as it could be and I don't plan to edit it now because that would be even more confusing.


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 3, 2020)

Sorry... that's what was said originally, no? I know I've been short on caffeine today, but, hell man, that is as straight as it gets. If you didn't mean what was said, that's another story. 



moproblems99 said:


> You know, what I find most interesting in this 'second' wave is that *most of the people causing the new spikes are from the groups typically espousing lockdowns, mandatory masks, and social distancing.  Then they go out and ignore their own shouts.*



Again, let's move on if you aren't going to clarify (my PM box is open just in case this is OT).

EDIT:


moproblems99 said:


> I'll make a one word edit.


That didn't help. Are you sure you know what espouse/preach means? You really think its them and not those who wont wear masks and social distance, in particular the young?


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Sorry... that's what was said originally, no? I know I've been short on caffeine today, but, hell man, that is as straight as it gets. If you didn't mean what was said, that's another story.



I'll make a one word edit.


----------



## Vayra86 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Sorry... that's what was said originally, no? I know I've been short on caffeine today, but, hell man, that is as straight as it gets. If you didn't mean what was said, that's another story.



Get a room you two lol


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 3, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Get a room you two lol


I'[m trying to bail but it keeps being dragged on, lol! I've taken the blue pill!!!!!! lolol


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Get a room you two lol



The woods off the interstate is fine with me.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 3, 2020)

As good natured as the previous posts were..... L meet Q.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 3, 2020)

EarthDog said:
			
		

> Again, let's move on if you aren't going to clarify (my PM box is open just in case this is OT).





			
				EarthDog said:
			
		

> That didn't help. Are you sure you know what espouse/preach means? You really think its them and not those who wont wear masks and social distance, in particular the young?



It's too late to fix it now.  Would probably be better for @the54thvoid to just clip the conversation.  Except our meetup.  Let our love be known.


----------



## HTC (Aug 3, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 51569 confirmed infected --- 106 more
- 37111 recovered --- 127 more
- 1738 fatalities --- *BIG FAT ZERO*
- 446342 suspected cases --- 1149 more
- 1622951 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 28th
- 1423 waiting for test results --- *124 less*
- 36481 under watch from authorities --- 333 more
- 390 hospitalized --- 12 more
- 42 in ICU --- 1 more

For the 1st time since we began having fatalities on March 17th, we had a day with *ZERO* fatalities 

Let's hope is but one of many.


----------



## HTC (Aug 4, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 51681 confirmed infected --- 112 more
- 37318 recovered --- 207 more
- 1739 fatalities --- 1 more
- 448517 suspected cases --- 2175 more
- 1671422 tests taken --- 48471 more - last updated August 3rd
- 1451 waiting for test results --- 28 more
- 36946 under watch from authorities --- 465 more
- 401 hospitalized --- 11 more
- 44 in ICU --- 2 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less, for the last 27 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

Today's the 3rd day in a row we had an increase in hospitalized of 10+. Other than that and also under watch from authorities, which is also high, all our other numbers seem to be good, all things considered.


----------



## HTC (Aug 5, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 51848 confirmed infected --- 167 more
- 37565 recovered --- 247 more
- 1740 fatalities --- 1 more
- 450524 suspected cases --- 2007 more
- 1688567 tests taken --- 17145 more - last updated August 4th
- 1437 waiting for test results --- *14 less*
- 37369 under watch from authorities --- 423 more
- 384 hospitalized --- *17 less*
- 41 in ICU --- *3 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 28 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## harm9963 (Aug 6, 2020)

The underbelly truth ,won't be address , because of political correctness, how sad!





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com


----------



## HTC (Aug 6, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 52061 confirmed infected --- 213 more
- 37840 recovered --- 275 more
- 1743 fatalities --- 3 more
- 451453 suspected cases --- 929 more
- 1705454 tests taken --- 16887 more - last updated August 5th
- 1317 waiting for test results --- *120 less*
- 37783 under watch from authorities --- 414 more
- 369 hospitalized --- *15 less*
- 42 in ICU --- 1 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 29 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 7, 2020)

I do find it interesting..... and a little strange looking at people's local stats, for example, in the UK Covid-19 deaths in males account for almost two thirds of the total (fluctuates 59 - 63%), however I see in some other countries and local areas almost an exact opposite, not sure why, might have to dig deeper.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 7, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I do find it interesting..... and a little strange looking at people's local stats, for example, in the UK Covid-19 deaths in males account for almost two thirds of the total (fluctuates 59 - 63%), however I see in some other countries and local areas almost an exact opposite, not sure why, might have to dig deeper.


I've been watching similar results. Something that seems universal is the impact to the latino, native american and black populations. Seems to be to be hitting harder. Makes me wonder what the real numbers in Africa are...


----------



## HTC (Aug 7, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I do find it interesting..... and a little strange looking at people's local stats, for example, *in the UK Covid-19 deaths in males account for almost two thirds of the total* (fluctuates 59 - 63%), however I see in some other countries and local areas almost an exact opposite, not sure why, might have to dig deeper.



In Portugal, the number of infected is predominantly female but the deaths are not, as shown by the two following pics:



 



On the left is the infected and on the right is the death toll: both categorized by age, except unknown (Desconhecido ???, on the left pic).


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## harm9963 (Aug 7, 2020)

Spin city big time!


----------



## HTC (Aug 8, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 52351 confirmed infected --- 290 more
- 38087 recovered --- 247 more
- 1746 fatalities --- 3 more
- 454380 suspected cases --- 2927 more
- 1705454 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 5th
- 1425 waiting for test results --- 108 more
- 37783 under watch from authorities --- *54 less*
- 356 hospitalized --- *13 less*
- 36 in ICU --- *6 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 30 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## HTC (Aug 8, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 52537 confirmed infected --- 186 more
- 38364 recovered --- 277 more
- 1750 fatalities --- 4 more
- 456256 suspected cases --- 1876 more
- 1705454 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 5th
- 1475 waiting for test results --- 50 more
- 37579 under watch from authorities --- *150 less*
- 357 hospitalized --- 1 more
- 33 in ICU --- *3 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 31 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## harm9963 (Aug 8, 2020)

Not surprise,  males come here to work, lived with others males ,  the underbelly truth.
Sorry to say lost two more coworkers at Toyota center!


----------



## HTC (Aug 9, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 52668 confirmed infected --- 131 more
- 38511 recovered --- 147 more
- 1756 fatalities --- 6 more
- 457462 suspected cases --- 1206 more
- 1705454 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 5th
- 1458 waiting for test results --- *19 less*
- 37496 under watch from authorities --- *83 less*
- 366 hospitalized --- 9 more
- 33 in ICU --- no change

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 32 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## HTC (Aug 10, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 52825 confirmed infected --- 157 more
- 38600 recovered --- 89 more
- 1759 fatalities --- 3 more
- 458067 suspected cases --- 605 more
- 1705454 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 5th
- 1280 waiting for test results --- *178 less*
- 37810 under watch from authorities --- 314 more
- 374 hospitalized --- 8 more
- 29 in ICU --- *4 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 33 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## harm9963 (Aug 10, 2020)

Just madness !










						Texas sees highest 7-day coronavirus positivity rate: ER doctor says 'we're not seeing signs' of surge ending
					

As the U.S. surpasses 5 million coronavirus cases, awaiting a vaccine and amid debates of sending kids back to schools, Texas emergency room physician Dr. Natasha Kathuria told "Fox & Friends" her state might see another surge in cases.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## HTC (Aug 10, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Just madness !View attachment 165203
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Could it be it's rising in your area but falling in others?

Dunno: just asking.

EDIT

Damn typos ...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 11, 2020)

Some ups and downs here in Maryland. %Positive is lower, but Hospitalizations remains steady. That bodes well for the near the future.

Deaths have remained below 10/day for most of the month. I wonder if face-masks reduce the severity of infection? We definitely had a minor-spike, but we haven't seen a similar spike in deaths yet.


----------



## claes (Aug 11, 2020)

Influenza related deaths in the US during the 2018-2019 influenza season: 34,000
2019-2020 flu season: 62,000
Total coronavirus deaths in US: 150,000

Wake up sheeple! This is a tech forum!


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 11, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Something that seems universal is the impact to the latino, native american and black populations. Seems to be to be hitting harder.



Underlying conditions most likely.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 11, 2020)

xman2007 said:


> all the while wearing what is little more than a t-shirt doubled up over my mouth that I cant breathe in,



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sc...-face-masks-are-best-at-blocking-droplets/amp

If I recall, the doubled t-shirt didn't do that bad.


----------



## robot zombie (Aug 11, 2020)

~160k odd people have died in the US so far. If 10 times more die from the flu every year, that's a lot of people! 1,760,000 sounds pretty major. If that's the case, then literally *4* odd civilians are dying every year to 1 US soldier who died in all of WWII. That sounds pretty crazy for people not to be talking about it. The flu would be 4 times more brutal than a mid-late WWII scenario that never ends!

Nobody really thinks the non-n95 options are good enough on their own, the point is that they're for the most part better than nothing. It's a simple, readily accessible thing that means a few less people transfer their infections.

This isn't really the best place to be dropping vaguely referenced claims, some personal complaints, and call-outs to whoever the sheep are, though... we have a thread better suited to that.

I don't get why people act like this sometimes, as if you're not just another regular person with an opinion. The paranoia and division helps nobody and changes nothing about the situation. It's the sheep versus the parrots. How long have we been at this? It gets old. There has to come a point where people run out of things to say...


----------



## harm9963 (Aug 11, 2020)

HTC said:


> Could it be it's rising in your area but falling in others?
> 
> Dunno: just asking.
> 
> ...


Thats how it goes , roller coaster, wish it would end!


----------



## Vayra86 (Aug 11, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> There has to come a point where people run out of things to say...



You know better than that. That point only arrives when the actual nukes drop and its too late. And even then. You'd think Covid would wake us up. It didn't, we're still in cognitive dissonance universe in every single way. Right now the world is full of examples of us not having learned from what happened a mere three months ago.

Meanwhile, the weather forecast is also pretty encouraging. We're stacking heat record upon heat record and right now in NL, climate models have never predicted the actual _double_ rise in temperature that we're seeing in heat waves. Not +1,5C for every half degree of global warming, but +3C. We are having the longest heat wave ever recorded in history atm. Drought is happening. In the Netherlands... a country known for its Delta project to stop all the water from flooding in. Go figure.

But yeah let's keep going with the bandaids! I'm sure they'll stop the bleeding.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 11, 2020)

Let's get back on track please. Stats, improvements, or not, as the case may be.

General comments, as @robot zombie mentioned, can go here.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 11, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> Underlying conditions most likely.


No genetics.  In the UK, of those that have died who are from a non minority white ethnic backgrounds, 84% had chronic underlying conditions where in contrast of all of those from minority backgrounds 21% only had chronic underlying conditions and to add to that the average age of those minorities who died without underlying conditions was 42 where as for the non minority group the average age without underlying conditions is 73.

As for common Influenza, it's a moot point, we have vaccinations for that so the odds are if a country vaccinated a larger proportion of it's population they could at least reduce fatalities significantly, we don't have that luxury (yet) with Covid-19 so from what I can see, common influenza is only a "significant" threat if we allow it to be.


----------



## HTC (Aug 11, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 52945 confirmed infected --- 120 more
- 38760 recovered --- 160 more
- 1761 fatalities --- 2 more
- 460663 suspected cases --- 2056 more
- 1753524 tests taken --- 48050 more - last updated August 9th
- 1368 waiting for test results --- 88 more
- 37767 under watch from authorities --- *43 less*
- 365 hospitalized --- *9 less*
- 35 in ICU --- 6 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 33 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## HTC (Aug 12, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 53223 confirmed infected --- 278 more
- 38940 recovered --- 180 more
- 1764 fatalities --- 3 more
- 462450 suspected cases --- 1787 more
- 1764454 tests taken --- 10930 more - last updated August 10th
- 1292 waiting for test results --- *76 less*
- 36377 under watch from authorities --- *1390 less*
- 367 hospitalized --- 2 more
- 40 in ICU --- 5 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 34 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 12, 2020)

Big drop (~8%) in hospitalizations today in Maryland, coinciding with the drop in cases and %Positive from a few days ago.


----------



## HTC (Aug 13, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 53548 confirmed infected --- 325 more
- 39177 recovered --- 237 more
- 1770 fatalities --- 6 more
- 464365 suspected cases --- 1915 more
- 1783267 tests taken --- 18813 more - last updated August 11th
- 1248 waiting for test results --- *44 less*
- 36530 under watch from authorities --- 153 more
- 358 hospitalized --- *9 less*
- 39 in ICU --- *1 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 35 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## HTC (Aug 14, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 53783 confirmed infected --- 235 more
- 39374 recovered --- 197 more
- 1772 fatalities --- 2 more
- 466096 suspected cases --- 1731 more
- 1799229 tests taken --- 15962 more - last updated August 12th
- 1298 waiting for test results --- 50 more
- 36345 under watch from authorities --- 185 more
- 348 hospitalized --- *10 less*
- 41 in ICU --- 2 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 36 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## HTC (Aug 15, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 53981 confirmed infected --- 198 more
- 39585 recovered --- 211 more
- 1775 fatalities --- 3 more
- 467868 suspected cases --- 1772 more
- 1799229 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 12th
- 1263 waiting for test results --- 35 less
- 36268 under watch from authorities --- *77 less*
- 320 hospitalized --- *28 less*
- 37 in ICU --- *4 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 37 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

Significant decrease in hospitalized: hope it's not "weekend effect".


----------



## HTC (Aug 16, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 54102 confirmed infected --- 121 more
- 39697 recovered --- 112 more
- 1778 fatalities --- 3 more
- 468937 suspected cases --- 1069 more
- 1799226 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 12th
- 1226 waiting for test results --- *37 less*
- 35742 under watch from authorities --- *526 less*
- 325 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 39 in ICU --- 2 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 38 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

Had made a mistake with the tests taken number: it's 179922*6* instead of 1799229. Hadn't noticed ...


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 17, 2020)

This might be a reason people don't believe COVID numbers.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/medi...bJ6oHRJBKazoztuUfB-0JhLC5P5LjFvgG8W7ipVxmWevE



> “I got a call asking for me, and they told me that I had tested positive. I was like, ‘Positive for what?” Then, the lady said for COVID, and I said, ‘That’s impossible. I never got tested, Ma’am,’” Mindy Clark said.
> 
> Clark had gone to the drive thru testing sight at Manatee Rural Health, but before she was able to get swabbed, she left the line because she realized it was for people with symptoms only.



It doesn't appear to be isolated:



> Plus, according to many of our viewers, this hasn’t only happened to her.



If this is how we really track people at the testing centers...it is.....disturbing:



> You’re registered though, you’re number 15 in line, and you are Jay Wolfson. If Jay Wolfson says he can’t wait any longer and he leaves, it will get number 15 and now get Rebecca Fernandez, who was standing behind him, and she tests positive, and then everyone from then on gets the wrong results.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 17, 2020)

It's all down to how each state counts the numbers, even districts. Confusion (such as above) helps to sow doubts, which is never good. UK numbers don't include anyone that's not had a test (I believe). Initially, you had to be in hopsital, with a test (or symptoms of covid) to be considered. We've also adjusted death count downwards (41000) to account for other cause of death (death within 28 days linked to posiitive test). Still highest in Europe though. More than double the annual flu rate of (average) 17000.


----------



## HTC (Aug 17, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> It's all down to how each state counts the numbers, even districts. Confusion (such as above) helps to sow doubts, which is never good. UK numbers don't include anyone that's not had a test (I believe). Initially, you had to be in hopsital, with a test (or symptoms of covid) to be considered. We've also adjusted death count downwards (41000) to account for other cause of death (death within 28 days linked to posiitive test). Still highest in Europe though. *More than double the annual flu rate of (average) 17000*.



Then it's close to *5 times* the rate because COVID-19 has killed people in UK since early March IIRC, meaning less than 6 months ago.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 17, 2020)

Finally the UK appears to be getting fatalities under control, the 7 day rolling average for fatalities currently sits at 13 per day, whilst any death is a tragedy for the most densely populated country in Western Europe with around 66 million people it is at least one success in a cesspool of disaster.


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 17, 2020)

13 /day... wow. US is still 1,000 /day. Granted we have 10x+ more people...but still.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 17, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> 13 /day... wow. US is still 1,000 /day. Granted we have 10x+ more people...but still.


Well closer to 5x the people but nevertheless I feel for you all.


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 17, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Well closer to 5x the people but nevertheless I feel for you all.


Oops, yes. For some reason I was thinking 700M. lol

But yeah, we still don't have this remotely under control (in some places).


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 17, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> But yeah, we still don't have this remotely under control (in some places).



We can't even figure out whose test is whose in places...lol. I'd say we are doing pretty good considering we can't get the basics of names on paper right.


----------



## HTC (Aug 17, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 54234 confirmed infected --- 132 more
- 39800 recovered --- 103 more
- 1779 fatalities --- 1 more
- 468937 suspected cases --- ???
- 1799226 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 12th
- 1226 waiting for test results --- ???
- 35568 under watch from authorities --- *174 less*
- 336 hospitalized --- 11 more
- 39 in ICU --- no change

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 39 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

Both "suspected cases" and "waiting for test results" don't have values (???): i checked today's situation report and it's not listed there either.


----------



## EarthDog (Aug 17, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> We can't even figure out whose test is whose in places...lol. I'd say we are doing pretty good considering we can't get the basics of names on paper right.


That's another nightmare (I'll leave out the source of this nightmare). We're not doing good in nearly any metric.


----------



## dirtyferret (Aug 17, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Well closer to 5x the people but nevertheless I feel for you all.


Yes but the UK is 8x the population density of the United States.  It should be rampant in the the UK and it should have hit a wall passed the Mississippi river yet Arizona and Texas are hot beds and you have it under control.



EarthDog said:


> That's another nightmare (I'll leave out the source of this nightmare). We're not doing good in nearly any metric.


besides spreading it, ignoring scientific/medical advice, and having the most facebook medical experpets without a medical degree; we are #1 in those categories.


----------



## Vayra86 (Aug 17, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> We can't even figure out whose test is whose in places...lol. I'd say we are doing pretty good considering we can't get the basics of names on paper right.



Well, if its any consolation, in super-well managed (ahem) Netherlands, the health services can't keep track either. They only could, briefly, when almost nobody came out for a test. Now that people got scared due to recent infections nearby and from ppl on holiday, people have started testing and all of a sudden capacity wasn't there.

That's our government right there. Its all going well until somebody concludes it really wasn't. Paper realities and years of budget cuts, first apparent in Hospitals, then in nursery homes, and now with the health services for prevention. Now we're scrambling for personell that simply doesn't exist. Gl with that while infections are ramping up. Everyone you recruit takes another guy to mentor him/her, so you'll not make it even if you recruit like mad. Well done, I'm sure it was worth your wage and I'm sure the brain drain saved us lots of money.

What's next. In the meantime, we are supposed to sacrifice liberties and money/time to keep showing ourselves as responsible citizens  After all, as long as the rats keep running... why not? That's reality for ya. People don't give a shit, from top to bottom. Today, word came out from Rathenau Institute that the Corona App built by Google and Apple is not fully disclosed source code and can be changed as we go along without us being able to look into its black box. Reassuring, as well as the fact it only works on newer models with recent low power Bluetooth. Our government: 'sure, great idea!'. So now a handful of new Iphone users can see if nobody nearby has it installed. Pretty cool feature for many millions spent.

Bloody idiots. Just face the fact you need to lock down regionally and yes that means a bunch of people will sit at home being healthy. Its the only way you can initiate and enforce quarantines without individually poking into people's privacy and lives. Yes, its a sacrifice. But we should make it if we want to keep our civil rights. What we need is a suitable compensation for those who sit at home and not working, together with employers, there is enough money going around to get that done and it'll be better spent than on these silly apps, masks and half-measures.









						The corona crisis calls for careful action and democratic debate | Rathenau Instituut
					






					www.rathenau.nl
				




Note, this is the global Covid warn app we speak of. This applies to (royal) you, too. I'm not selling my soul to Google or Apple at any given time. Your government doesn't care though. These are surveillance systems that are put in place and never get broken down. History repeats.


----------



## HTC (Aug 18, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 12728 active cases --- 73 more
- 39936 recovered --- 136 more
- 1784 fatalities --- 5 more
- 35107 under watch from authorities --- *461 less*
- 54448 confirmed infected --- 214 more
- 336 hospitalized --- no change
- 38 in ICU --- *1 less*

- 1799226 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 12th

Regarding the numbers meaning on the right pic (for each region): top is "total cases" and "daily cases increase" and bottom is "total deaths" and "daily death increase".

Portugal's Health Site has changed the way they show results so i opted to use the situation report instead of the main site, and will do this from now on: as can be seen, i changed the stat's order to reflect the order on the situation report, adding "active cases" and removing "suspected cases" as well as "waiting for tests results", both of which no longer appear anywhere. "Tests taken" still doesn't appear on the situation report (like always) but it appears on the main site, so i updated it from there.

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 40 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 18, 2020)

UK's 7 day fatality average is now down to 10, infection rate is up however mainly due to the fact that there are imposed lockdowns or restrictions in around  7 Northern Cities and testing centres are testing thousands of extra people as a precautionary measure to try and seek & destroy.


----------



## HTC (Aug 19, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture). Regarding the numbers (for each region): top is "total cases" and "daily cases increase" and bottom is "total deaths" and "daily death increase":

- 12786 active cases --- 56 more
- 40129 recovered --- 193 more
- 1786 fatalities --- 5 more
- 34772 under watch from authorities --- *335 less*
- 54701 confirmed infected --- 253 more
- 329 hospitalized --- *7 less*
- 35 in ICU --- *3 less*

- 1848022 tests taken --- 48796 more - last updated August 16th

We've crossed the 40K recovered "barrier"

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 41 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.


----------



## HTC (Aug 20, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 12940 active cases --- 154 more
- 40264 recovered --- 135 more
- 1788 fatalities --- 2 more
- 34422 under watch from authorities --- *350 less*
- 54992 confirmed infected --- 291 more
- 334 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 39 in ICU --- 4 more

- 1861876 tests taken --- 13854 more - last updated August 17th

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 42 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th (something's changed: i could have sworn we last had 10+ fatalities on July 8th).


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 20, 2020)

Yay!  For the first time since February, the UK's 7 day rolling average for fatalities has now hit single digits and is now down to 8, that's 8 too many but it has felt like a lifetime to get there, this in a climate of localised increases in infection rates in some mainly northern areas that are being managed closely.


----------



## John Naylor (Aug 20, 2020)

In looking at the 7 day rolling per 100k population averages in US for COVID, I got interested in other state rankings.   Among the things I looked at:

a)  COVID 7 day averages, highest to lowest
b)  Average education levels, lowest to highest
c)  Average IQ Levels, lowest to highest
d)  Firearms Deaths, highest to lowest
e)  Obesity rates, highest to lowest
f)   Vehicle Fatalities per 100k, highest to lowest

Hard to say what it means, but the lists to a large part are strikingly similar.  But in the broader sense ... many states with high 7 day COVID averages, are likely to have lower average education levels, lower IQs, higher rates of vehicular and firearms related fatalities and higher obesity rates.


----------



## meganq2 (Aug 20, 2020)

I am afraid a little bit to check this map. It means that the virus didn't end at all


----------



## harm9963 (Aug 20, 2020)

The elephant in the room , under belly ,just sad!








						Mexico 'flying blind' in pandemic response  – DW – 08/18/2020
					

Mexico ranks third in the world in coronavirus deaths, behind only the United States and Brazil. Experts say a lack of testing, combined with an unfocused approach to tackling the pandemic, has only made things worse.




					www.dw.com


----------



## HTC (Aug 21, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 12946 active cases --- 6 more
- 40473 recovered --- 209 more
- 1792 fatalities --- 4 more
- 34233 under watch from authorities --- *189 less*
- 55211 confirmed infected --- 219 more
- 321 hospitalized --- *13 less*
- 41 in ICU --- 2 more

- 1880235 tests taken --- 18359 more - last updated August 18th

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 43 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.

Our Lisbon an Tejo River Valley region is still the one being most hit by new daily cases, with over 50% of the country's total, but the percentage VS the rest of the country has been dropping ... slowly but steadily.


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## HTC (Aug 22, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 13006 active cases --- 60 more
- 40652 recovered --- 179 more
- 1794 fatalities --- 2 more
- 34182 under watch --- *51 less*
- 55452 confirmed infected --- 241 more
- 316 hospitalized --- *5 less*
- 42 in ICU --- 1 more

- 1896675 tests taken --- 16440 more - last updated August 19th

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 44 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.


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## HTC (Aug 23, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 13027 active cases --- 21 more
- 40774 recovered --- 132 more
- 1796 fatalities --- 2 more
- 34413 under watch --- 243 more
- 55597 confirmed infected --- 145 more
- 317 hospitalized --- 1 more
- 47 in ICU --- 5 more

- 1896675 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 19th

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 45 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.

A few months ago, Portugal released a significant portion of it's prisoners from jail due to humanitarian reasons and the fact there was no way to ensure social distancing in jails due to the nature of the the various prison facilities: those that did homicides, rapes, domestic violence, as well as a few other types of crimes were left out of this measure and, even then, only those that were condemned to less than 2 years or had under 2 years left to serve were eligeable for this measure.

Of the 2031 prisoners released, 24 practiced crimes again and a further 59 failed to abide by the health confinement rules: these individuals were thus imprisoned again.

As good as we have been managing this virus crisis, and were far from perfect, we must keep our vigilance and continue to follow health guidelines for as long as necessary in the hopes we don't get what it appears both France and Spain are getting already: a 2nd wave before the seasonal flu.


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## Frick (Aug 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> It's all down to how each state counts the numbers, even districts. Confusion (such as above) helps to sow doubts, which is never good. UK numbers don't include anyone that's not had a test (I believe). Initially, you had to be in hopsital, with a test (or symptoms of covid) to be considered. We've also adjusted death count downwards (41000) to account for other cause of death (death within 28 days linked to posiitive test). Still highest in Europe though. More than double the annual flu rate of (average) 17000.



Yeah counting is tricky. One reason for the high mortality rate in Sweden can be because we apparently have counted any dead with covid19 as a covid19-caused death, which is less than accurate.


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## harm9963 (Aug 24, 2020)

Pray !


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## HTC (Aug 24, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 13039 active cases --- 12 more
- 40880 recovered --- 106 more
- 1801 fatalities --- 5 more
- 34388 under watch --- *25 less*
- 55720 confirmed infected --- 123 more
- 321 hospitalized --- 4 more
- 44 in ICU --- *3 less*

- 1896675 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 19th

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 46 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th. Even though our daily deaths are low when compared to other countries, they still add up and we've just crossed 1.8K deaths today because of it.

Was missing the "confirmed infected" in my updates since last Saturday and only just noticed ...


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 24, 2020)

And a "0" change in hospitalizations reported today, which more or less coincides with this plateau we seem to have here in Maryland.

%Positive is below 3.3%, Confirmed Cases/day has been in and around 600. However, school will be starting soon, and while public schools are closed for the first month, private schools are expected to be open around here.


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## Frick (Aug 24, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Pray !View attachment 166513



And with hurricane season coming!


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## Vayra86 (Aug 24, 2020)

meganq2 said:


> I am afraid a little bit to check this map. It means that the virus didn't end at all



It will not end. Even with a vaccine it will likely remain present among us. Like the flu, except with different symptoms. What we will gain over time is better ways to treat, avoid permanent damage, etc. And a vaccine will likely bring some form of base resistance, and likely temporary immunity.

Another thing we will gain over time is knowing our way around organizing society so that it doesn't catch us by surprise. That will probably be the path to truly removing the measures and restrictions in place now. Many countries are already moving towards a regional approach, or very localized one.

Its not the best sort of news, but that is my realistic view of all this at this point in time. No use hiding from it.


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## freeagent (Aug 24, 2020)

It’s in my home town now. Setting daily records. I suspect it will probably get bad too. The numbers that we had when this started vs now is a little scary. It almost didn’t exist here, now it’s full steam ahead. And people are idiots.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 24, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> It will not end. Even with a vaccine it will likely remain present among us. Like the flu, except with different symptoms. What we will gain over time is better ways to treat, avoid permanent damage, etc. And a vaccine will likely bring some form of base resistance, and likely temporary immunity.
> 
> Another thing we will gain over time is knowing our way around organizing society so that it doesn't catch us by surprise. That will probably be the path to truly removing the measures and restrictions in place now. Many countries are already moving towards a regional approach, or very localized one.
> 
> Its not the best sort of news, but that is my realistic view of all this at this point in time. No use hiding from it.



It really comes down to how effective the vaccine will be.

The ideal would be a near 99% effectiveness rate, with permanent immunity. But maybe the vaccine will only be 30% effective with only 6 months of temporary immunity. In the first case, we can wipe out the virus. In the second case, we'll be in a better position, but we'll need to come up with another, more permanent solution. (And maybe the permanent solution is to build huge factories that can make 600,000,000 doses per year).

EDIT: The flu is the way it is because flu vaccines have wildly different efficacy rates with only temporary immunity. You're only immune for a year or two, requiring a shot every year to stay protected. But if the "new flu vaccine" is a 30% sucker, then everyone gets sick that year even with a high vaccination rate.


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## HTC (Aug 25, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:


 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 13086 active cases --- 47 more
- 41021 recovered --- 141 more
- 1805 fatalities --- 4 more
- 33821 under watch --- *567 less*
- 55912 confirmed infected --- 192 more

- 325 hospitalized --- 4 more
- 41 in ICU --- *3 less*

- 1945123 tests taken --- 48448 more - last updated August 23rd

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 47 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.


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## Deleted member 24505 (Aug 25, 2020)

Where I live, there are so many people, who think it is all a hoax. I saw a story about two Americans who thought the same, they both caught it, but never went to doctors, kinda thought, it's not that bad. The guys wife died, and he now realises how foolish they were.


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## harm9963 (Aug 26, 2020)

Under belly about  to get worst with flu season in a few months.


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## HTC (Aug 26, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 13283 active cases --- 197 more
- 41184 recovered --- 163 more
- 1807 fatalities --- 2 more
- 56274 confirmed infected --- 362 more

- 1958651 tests taken --- 13528 more - last updated August 24th
- 33782 under watch --- *39 less*
- 311 hospitalized --- *11 less*
- 38 in ICU --- *3 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 48 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.

Our Health site changed the layout again, so i opted to start using it, like before: will do so from now on.


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## harm9963 (Aug 27, 2020)

So close! last thing we need in Harris county.


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## HTC (Aug 27, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 13507 active cases --- 234 more
- 41357 recovered --- 173 more
- 1809 fatalities --- 2 more
- 56673 confirmed infected --- 399 more

- 1976482 tests taken --- 13528 more - last updated August 25th
- 33866 under watch --- 84 more
- 317 hospitalized --- 6 more
- 35 in ICU --- *3 less*

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 49 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.

I said i was going to continue with pics from our main Health site but they messed up ... take a look @ the following pic and compare it's data with the top right pic:



Negative deaths????  And that's not the only mistake ... which is why i ended up using a pic from our daily situation report instead ...


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## HTC (Aug 29, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 13703 active cases --- 196 more
- 41556 recovered --- 199 more
- 1815 fatalities --- 6 more
- 57074 confirmed infected --- 403 more

- 1976482 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 25th
- 33930 under watch --- 64 more
- 334 hospitalized --- 17 more
- 38 in ICU --- 3 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 50 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.

For the 3rd day in a row we've had over 50% more per day than what we've been having for the past couple of weeks, on average: let's hope it's one of those "three day blips" ...


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## HTC (Aug 30, 2020)

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

 

On the left, the numbers from 2 days ago and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 14064 active cases --- 361 more
- 41885 recovered --- 329 more
- 1819 fatalities --- 4 more
- 57768 confirmed infected --- 694 more

- 1976482 tests taken --- no change - last updated August 25th
- 34258 under watch --- 328 more
- 341 hospitalized --- 7 more
- 41 in ICU --- 3 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 52 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.

This whole week we've been having roughly 50% more cases per day than the previous week and, while our Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region is still the most affected with daily new cases, it's been having "competition" from our Northern region and "only" accounts for just over 50% of all our daily cases, as opposed to the 80% to 90% of Portugal's daily cases from July.

Portugal's Health site wasn't updated yesterday, which is why i didn't post yesterday's numbers and why today's post is the result of two days instead of one.


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## harm9963 (Aug 31, 2020)

Out of control !


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## HTC (Sep 3, 2020)

This post combines COVID-19 with computers so it HAS to be on topic:









						A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged
					

A closer look at the Bradykinin hypothesis




					elemental.medium.com
				




I found it interesting and a new take that explains quite a lot: REALLY hope this points researchers that deal with the various aspects of vaccines / medications in the right direction.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regarding Portugal's updates in cases, i've been taking screenshots daily from our Health Site and plan to update our cases every Monday, with a pic of the last Monday and also pics of every single day, with stats averaged on a weekly basis.


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 3, 2020)

HTC said:


> This post combines COVID-19 with computers so it HAS to be on topic:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm no doctor... but it seems like the simulation here weren't for vaccines, but for treatments and how the virus affects the body.

So the stuff listed in the article may lower the death rate, or improve comfort and/or treatment in other ways. But I'm not entirely sure if anything discussed will help with a vaccine per se.

With that being said: lowering the death rate and improving treatment is a good thing, regardless.


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## harm9963 (Sep 3, 2020)

Flu season coming soon!


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## HTC (Sep 6, 2020)

I had originally planed to update every Monday but, because of my work, there would by times i could only update Tuesday so, and to maintain consistency, i chose to update every Sunday instead.

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 15465 active cases --- 1401 more --- 200.1 more per day
- 42953 recovered --- 1068 more --- 152.6 more per day
- 1840 fatalities --- 21 more --- 3 more per day
- 60258 confirmed infected --- 2490 more --- 355.7 more per day

- 2092057 tests taken --- 115575 more --- 16510.7 more per day but was last updated September 2nd
- 34240 under watch --- *18 less* --- *2.6 less* more per day
- 341 hospitalized --- no change
- 43 in ICU --- 2 more --- 0.3 more per day

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 59 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.

We've crossed the 60K infected milestone but our Country's Health site decided to "mess up the occasion" by having both yesterday's (-1514) and today's (+2315) new confirmed infected number totally wrong: the correct numbers were, respectively, +486 and +315.

Portugal's new daily confirmed infected has risen VS previous weeks: our Northern region (+1021 cases) has seen a lot more new cases and is almost on par with our Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region (+1179 cases), which has been by far the most affected region for over 2 months now. Of the total 2490 new cases this week, 2200 were in these two regions.


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## harm9963 (Sep 6, 2020)

Let see ,close box is full of bad stuff, we have to look the other way , and open it , we don't want to hurt  the under belly truth, people die  for this madness!





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com


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## harm9963 (Sep 10, 2020)

Mark my word , it will get worst, open that Pandora's box.


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2020)

It has only been ~1 week of private school, but Maryland's numbers remain mostly flat. Phase 3 is open in most of Maryland, but the hard-hit areas are waiting before joining Phase 3 (open up movie theaters to half capacity, and other entertainment areas)

%Positive is up by about 0.5 points, but hospitalizations and total number of cases/day are flat.


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## harm9963 (Sep 12, 2020)




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## HTC (Sep 13, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

      

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 18047 active cases --- 2582 more --- 368.9 more per day
- 44069 recovered --- 1116 more --- 159.4 more per day
- 1867 fatalities --- 27 more --- 3.9 more per day
- 63983 confirmed infected --- 3725 more --- 532.1 more per day

- 2229753 tests taken --- 137696 more --- 17212 more per day but was last updated September 10th
- 36398 under watch --- 2158 more --- 308.3 more per day
- 452 hospitalized --- 98 more --- 14 more per day
- 57 in ICU --- 14 more --- 2 more per day

We've been having single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths), for the last 66 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 9th.

Managed to grab myself a pic from last Sunday with the corrected stats, which were messed up in my previous update.

We've had a nearly 50% increase per day in cases VS previous week, which had already had an over 50% increase VS the week before, and we've yet to open schools (tomorrow) ... this isn't looking good


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## the54thvoid (Sep 14, 2020)

It was always a morbid curiosity of mine. The UK had one of the worst death rates per million for a 'reasonable' sized country. Smaller places (i.e. San Marino) with limited physical space and high population concentrations would always fare worse with poor management. The US was way off. Not so now. In about a week, the US will climb past the UK for the dishonourable stat of 'deaths per million population'. I estimate another 7k deaths should do it.  



 

Amazing when you consider, the UK has roughly one fifth the population of the US, but in size, it's only 1/40th the land mass of the states.  In other words, to have the same pop density as the UK, the US needs a population of 2.68 billion people. Or, the UK should be 8.2 million peeps.


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## harm9963 (Sep 14, 2020)

Not surprised 

 
*Mexico’s Covid-19 Death Toll Could Be Twice as High as Official Tally*


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 21, 2020)

Its not all bad news everywhere. Maryland has a big dip today: falling below 3% positive and below 300 hospitalizations today.

However: Mondays seem to be filled with big dips (probably fewer deaths counted over the weekend?). So we probably should wait a few days to see if these numbers "stick". But nonetheless, this is the lowest I remember seeing Maryland for a long time.


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## EarthDog (Sep 21, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 169388
> 
> Its not all bad news everywhere. Maryland has a big dip today: falling below 3% positive and below 300 hospitalizations today.
> 
> However: Mondays seem to be filled with big dips (probably fewer deaths counted over the weekend?). So we probably should wait a few days to see if these numbers "stick". But nonetheless, this is the lowest I remember seeing Maryland for a long time.


That's how Ohio works too... drop on Monday/weekend, then it goes up until weekend numbers.


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## the54thvoid (Sep 21, 2020)

I called it a week ago. On the nose.





US deaths per million is now worse than the UK. But if you note anything, South America is doing abysmally. In fact, anything south of Canada in the Americas. It's the new Europe. The irony.


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 21, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> South America is doing abysmally



There's a lot of worry that cold-weather will make this virus worse. (Cold weather means most gatherings will be inside with poorer ventilation / fewer windows open)

Its winter (going into spring) in South America right now. Its not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison due to the differences in policy... but the seasonal offset between the northern and southern hemispheres must be noted.


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## HTC (Sep 21, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:


       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until yesterday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 21069 active cases --- 3022 more --- 431.7 more per day
- 45596 recovered --- 1527 more --- 218.1 more per day
- 1912 fatalities --- 45 more --- 6.4 more per day
- 68577 confirmed infected --- 4594 more --- 656.3 more per day

- 2415426 tests taken --- 185673 more --- 18567.3 more per day but was last updated September 20th
- 39362 under watch --- 2964 more --- 423.4 more per day
- 511 hospitalized --- 98 more --- 8.4 more per day
- 63 in ICU --- 14 more --- 0.9 more per day

Our single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths) streak was broken: it lasted for 69 days.

Our health site didn't publish yesterday's main page so i was forced to use the situation report instead.

While this week's increase in new cases VS the previous week isn't as high as the previous two weeks, it's still an increase of over 23% over the previous week's number. We've also had our 5th highest number of new cases on Sep 19th, with 849, and the effect of schools having started is yet to be seen: this is sooooo not looking good 

The following pic is the history of daily cases in Portugal, since March (click for full picture):



As can be seen, there's a significant uptick in new daily cases


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## Bubster (Sep 21, 2020)

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)




					coronavirus.jhu.edu
				



and US only








						Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US
					

Track the spread of coronavirus in the United States with maps and updates on cases and deaths.




					edition.cnn.com


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## harm9963 (Sep 21, 2020)

Mexico under reports  by a lot .








						Coronavirus Scourge Leaves Mexico Short of Death Certificates
					

Mexico is running out of death certificates due to the high death toll brought by the coronavirus pandemic and federal bureaucratic delays, authorities say, delaying funerals as corpses lay in wait.




					www.wsj.com


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## harm9963 (Sep 22, 2020)

Epidemiological Alert COVID-19 among healthcare workers 31 August 2020


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## harm9963 (Sep 22, 2020)

Open up , ok


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## the54thvoid (Sep 22, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Open up , ok  View attachment 169517



I feel your pain. The UK's spiralling right now.


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## lexluthermiester (Sep 23, 2020)

I hate to say this folks, but even though the numbers are looking like they're getting grim, the reality is that they are still lower than that of the flu in most areas and way lower than heart failure and cancer in all areas. Anyone still not thinking this is all over-reaction? Seems like an over-reaction to me.


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I hate to say this folks, but even though the numbers are looking like they're getting grim, the reality is that they are still lower than that of the flu in most areas and way lower than heart failure and cancer in all areas. Anyone still not thinking this is all over-reaction? Seems like an over-reaction to me.



The flu killed 78,000 in 2018-2019 season, and less than 60,000 in 2019 to 2020 season (still pending for an official result for 2019-2020).

The year isn't over yet, and COVID19 already killed 200,000. And this is a year where we shut down the majority of sports events, concerts, and conventions. Can you imagine how much more COVID19 would have spread if we had sports?

EDIT: And before you say "comorbidities", note that the Flu-mortality rate also includes a significant number of comorbidities: Asthma, Heart disease, Stroke, etc. etc. Hell, by the "comorbidity" argument, HIV / AIDS "doesn't kill anyone" because the HIV virus *literally can't kill you*. It just causes the *NEXT* virus you get to kill you. Dying with HIV / AIDS is synonymous with dying from HIV / AIDS

As soon as we start comparing COVID19 with other diseases (Flu, AIDS, etc. etc.), it becomes clear that COVID19 causes more deaths on an apples-to-apples measurement (with consistent, and identical measurements of comorbidities).


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## the54thvoid (Sep 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I hate to say this folks, but even though the numbers are looking like they're getting grim, the reality is that they are still lower than that of the flu in most areas and way lower than heart failure and cancer in all areas. Anyone still not thinking this is all over-reaction? Seems like an over-reaction to me.



It's for sure certain other death groupings are higher. Heart disease (US annually) accounted for around 380k deaths in 2018. I would hope COVID doesn't reach that level but at the halfway mark it is entirely plausible it will break 300k for the whole year. However, heart disease is a symptom of lifetsyle in most cases. It's not transmitable, so it's okay to hang out with someone with it. The entire issue with coronavirus is the lack of immunity at the moment. Once a vaccine is safe to use, I think we'll see a huge improvement. But until then, this pesky, mostly harmless virus will kill a lot more people. Needlessly in some cases due to the attitudes of some. 

As an aside - Most people I know (in fact, all I've been in contact with) for 6 months have not had a cold, cough, or other contagious illness. Social distancing clearly plays a role in all viral transmissions. Worst thing I've had is a damn tick bite. Taught the little bugger social distancing with tweezers.


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## lexluthermiester (Sep 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Worst thing I've had is a damn tick bite. Taught the little bugger social distancing with tweezers.


Thank You! I needed that laugh!!


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## Tatty_One (Sep 23, 2020)

It's a very difficult and often subjective comparison to make.  Common influenza strains don't normally come with lockdown's, how many people would be dead worldwide if no country took any measures against Covid-19?  Further to that, in the UK in 2018/19 the average infection rate for the 8 most common influenza strains (and this includes 2 forms of swine flu) was 0.20 cases per 100,000 of population, in the UK in April/May the Covid-19 average infection rate was 193.3 per 100,000 of population and that's with a lockdown.  There were 1,692 confirmed Influenza related deaths in 2018/19, during April/May 2020 Covid-19 killed that many on average every 2-3 days.


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 24, 2020)

Looks like the hospitalization drop was a temporary figment: the hospitalizations "popped back up" for some reason.

%Positive is still far lower than it was a few weeks ago however.


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## harm9963 (Sep 24, 2020)

Not surprise !


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 25, 2020)

%Positive remains low as Hospitalizations rise. This is a conflicting set of data, once again. Something weird is going on.





24-hour change in #Cases hasn't really gone up much. So why the change in hospitalizations?

Maybe there's been a "blip" in the reporting, like a mistake somewhere, and things are just getting back to normal. If I squint and kinda ignore the drop in hospitalizations from Monday this week, we're basically back to where we were last week in terms of hospitalization count.


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## HTC (Sep 28, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until yesterday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 24004 active cases --- 2935 more --- 419.3 more per day
- 47647 recovered --- 2051 more --- 293 more per day
- 1953 fatalities --- 41 more --- 5.9 more per day
- 73604 confirmed infected --- 5027 more --- 718.1 more per day

- 2501955 tests taken --- 86529 more --- 21632.3 more per day but was last updated September 24th
- 44274 under watch --- 4912 more --- 701.7 more per day
- 635 hospitalized --- 124 more --- 17.7 more per day
- 89 in ICU --- 26 more --- 3.7 more per day

Our health site didn't publish their main page on several days so i was forced to use the situation report for those days instead.

Our new infected cases continue to rise but the increase this week was roughly 9.5% VS last week's over 23%: Schools being opened should be having an impact on new numbers by now.

Also, our testing capability has increased, as evidenced by the fact that in just 4 days (the last update had been on Sep 20th) we conducted an average of over 21.5K tests per day: since the beginning of this pandemic, we've only crossed the 20K-a-day-tests-conducted barrier 11 times, with 10 of those times since Sep 8th.


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## harm9963 (Oct 4, 2020)

This is not working! opening up ?


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## HTC (Oct 4, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

      

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 26939 active cases --- 2935 more --- 419.3 more per day
- 50207 recovered --- 2560 more --- 365.7 more per day
- 2005 fatalities --- 52 more --- 7.4 more per day
- 79151 confirmed infected --- 5547 more --- 792.4 more per day

- 2647756 tests taken --- 145801 more --- 20828.7 more per day but was last updated October 1st
- 46348 under watch --- 2177 more --- 311 more per day
- 682 hospitalized --- 47 more --- 6.7 more per day
- 105 in ICU --- 16 more --- 2.3 more per day

Our new infected cases continue to rise, and the increase this week was roughly 10% VS previous week: closing in on 800 new daily cases per day. Our fatalities crossed 2K today as well


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## Tatty_One (Oct 4, 2020)

In the UK it's getting a bit bleak, a third of the country (approx 22 Million people) are now in various forms of tighter restrictions albeit pretty much everything remains open including schools, allegedly a large proportion of the people are ignoring guidelines (some sources say up to 20% of the population, mainly 18 - 35 age range) and no doubt they will be the first to complain if we have to go into full lockdown again at some point which as of now seems almost a certainty, if only because normally during the winter months of November - February ITU's are pretty much full in any case and more recently we are seeing more go into ITU's due to Covid-19, I forecast that by Mid November, should we carry on with this upwards trend then ITU's will be full and the Government is going to have to decide once again if it's life or the economy as ITU's collapse under the pressure if not.

7 day averages as of today...……..

New infections - 7,249 per day
Deaths - 49 per day
Hospital admissions - 378 per day


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## HTC (Oct 4, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> In the UK it's getting a bit bleak, a third of the country (approx 22 Million people) are now in various forms of tighter restrictions albeit pretty much everything remains open including schools, allegedly a large proportion of the people are ignoring guidelines (some sources say up to 20% of the population, mainly 18 - 35 age range) and no doubt they will be the first to complain if we have to go into full lockdown again at some point which as of now seems almost a certainty, if only because normally during the winter months of November - February ITU's are pretty much full in any case and more recently we are seeing more go into ITU's due to Covid-19, I forecast that by Mid November, should we carry on with this upwards trend then ITU's will be full and the Government is going to have to decide once again if it's life or the economy as ITU's collapse under the pressure if not.
> 
> 7 day averages as of today...……..
> 
> ...



I wouldn't be surprised if Portugal were to be forced to have National lockdown again, even though our Prime Minister already said we won't resort to that last step and will instead have "localized lockdowns", should the need arise.

ANY National lockdown comes @ a terrible economic cost for both Country AND it's citizens and the vast majority of Governments simply can't afford to do it more than once.

I do wonder: have ANY medical staff had holidays since this Pandemic began? Don't have access to such data here in Portugal but, if it turns out they haven't due to this virus, there's a big risk of doctors beginning to be "more error prone" due to accumulated fatigue, both physical and mental, not just with COVID related patients but in general as well.


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## harm9963 (Oct 7, 2020)

We have so many people from other country's here , Mexico, south America, central America, Harris county is overwhelm , and the USA gets the blame.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 7, 2020)

I dunno, Mexico doesn't seem correlated to Texas in any real way.

In contrast:













Arizona, Florida, and Texas are clearly related.


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## harm9963 (Oct 7, 2020)

More plain,  Texas border to Mexico, gateway   from South America, central America , Houston TX / Harris County  is the 4th largest city in the USA.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 7, 2020)

Texas, formerly Mexican, previously New Spain.


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## harm9963 (Oct 7, 2020)

During the period of recorded history from A.D. 1519 to 1848, all or parts of Texas were claimed by five countries: France, Spain, Mexico, the Republic of Texas, and the United States of America as well as the confederacy during the civil war.








						9 Things You May Not Know About Texas
					

Explore nine things you may not know about the Lone Star State.




					www.history.com


----------



## the54thvoid (Oct 7, 2020)

See! Always been full of foreign types.   

You know I'm just playing. It's a rich country/poor country border.


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## harm9963 (Oct 7, 2020)

A lot of great beer too 








						German Mexicans - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 8, 2020)

Maryland hospitalizations spiked upwards this week. We used to be ~300 hospitalized, now at 400. %Positive remains below 3%.

It doesn't seem like %Positive is a very useful metric anymore: confirmed cases seems to be more closely correlated to hospitalization trends. (Just eyeballing it. I guess I could run an R^2 test or something, but I kind of forgot how to do proper statistics, lol).


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## the54thvoid (Oct 8, 2020)

This is why Covid hurts. Because of its transmission rate, without a vaccine, the cases can sky rocket. That means a lot of folks in hospital. Most will survive. The deaths are almost a throwaway statistic in this sense. What really causes damage is the effect on everything else. It's a judgement call. Who gets the ICU bed? Covid guy or the one with another life-threatening condition? The UK always had the tagline, 'Keep our NHS safe'. If you keep covid cases down, you can treat other people. If you lose control, you lose all those spare beds. That's the real problem. Not the deaths. Which is why I get so pissed off at ignorant mofo's that harp on about 'being the same as flu'. Flu doesn't overrun hospitals like Covid can.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 8, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I feel your pain. The UK's spiralling right now.



Everything is. We are still in fantasy land thinking this can be controlled without short lockdowns. Regional approach is attrnpted but really half assed so that wont have impact at all. Religious and other groups are still being treated too leniently... under the guise of freedom of religion as if that is somehow on another plane as other freedoms.

Its disgusting to see so much blindness to inevitability. Reminds pf how we approach climate change and overpppulation.

Slowly starting to understand why every odd year some random event or date is announced as the day of judgment... we are blundering fools


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## HTC (Oct 11, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 31397 active cases --- 4458 more --- 636.9 more per day
- 53187 recovered --- 2980 more --- 425.7 more per day
- 2080 fatalities --- 75 more --- 10.7 more per day
- 86664 confirmed infected --- 7513 more --- 1073.9 more per day

- 2791429 tests taken --- 143673 more --- 20524.7 more per day but was last updated October 8th
- 48413 under watch --- 2065 more --- 295 more per day
- 843 hospitalized --- 161 more --- 23 more per day
- 124 in ICU --- 19 more --- 2.7 more per day

Our new infected cases rose significantly VS last week with over 35%: crossed 1000 new daily cases per day, actually being closer to 1100 cases than 1000. Also had a significant increase in hospitalized, with over of 23.6% VS last week.

Failed to get a screenshot of Oct 10th so i had to use situation report's instead.

There's @ least one hospital with ICU @ capacity and a few others close to it, all of which in our Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region: steps are being taken to extend capacity in the region. However, medical staff with ICU training shortage is our current main problem: though we have enough for the CURRENT hospital capacity, it changes when the capacity is extended.

NOT good @ ALL


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## claes (Oct 11, 2020)

Looking forward to the day I can respond to this thread with “like” reacts; stay safe out there!


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 11, 2020)

claes said:


> Looking forward to the day I can respond to this thread with “like” reacts; stay safe out there!



Looks like "wave 2" is hitting Europe now. All waves crest up, but eventually recede. This too shall pass.


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## Tatty_One (Oct 11, 2020)

UK update as of today, in pictures this time...………………...










The North of England is taking the BIG hit, they have been experiencing increases for 7 weeks now, a number of their cities have been in almost full lockdown (work and education still happening) for 3-4 weeks and numbers have still increased significantly, hence my earlier comments about a fairly large proportion of the population ignoring guidelines, this 2nd spike differs currently from the first as it is much more localised, my area falls under the "Midlands" but thankfully in a relatively low infection area of that region, some regions are very mildly hit.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 11, 2020)

^^ Scientifically, this is purely opinion but I can't help but see a 'visible' correlation with schools and Uni's and the spread getting out of hand. Yeah, we know children don't catch it but they do carry it.  Do they then go home and spread it to family. Who then spread it to their 'bubbles'? I think 14% of the spread in the UK was pinned on hospitality but that, to me, looks feasibly as though it's come from another origin, i.e schooling. We had bars and pubs open since Late June?, if not July and August saw a minimal uptick. Schools resumed in August, and September's stats went apocalyptic. The correlation from the available evidence appears blatant. To me, schools are the clear super spreaders, until it's proven otherwise.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 11, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Yeah, we know children don't catch it but they do carry it.


Wait, what? I know of at least 2 children that have had it.


the54thvoid said:


> Schools resumed in August, and September's stats went apocalyptic. The correlation from the available evidence appears blatant. To me, schools are the clear super spreaders, until it's proven otherwise.


No one is going to argue that point too much. Interestingly, the picture is somewhat rosier stateside, at least in my region. However, we knew this was going to happen. This is reality and it's a part of working through the problem the pandemic has presented and getting on with life.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 11, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Wait, what? I know of at least 2 children that have had it.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1240758710646878208
At a minimum, celebrities were spreading misinformation about child immunity. Arguably political, but now that a few months have passed, it is obvious where the falsehoods lay.

Said celebrities continued to push false information, probably for political purposes. (Nothing like national level, but this was clearly smaller scale: local politics. Musk wanted to keep his factories open).


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 11, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> spreading misinformation about child immunity


While I haven't seen that, such would not be surprising at all. Though I do believe immunity is a thing, I think it has nothing to do with age. I had it, my wife didn't. My younger son got it, his twin sister did not. My adult daughter got it, her husband and two children did not. We all live in the same house and have all been tested several times before and after the infections were present here.


dragontamer5788 said:


> (Nothing like national level, but this was clearly smaller scale: local politics. Musk wanted to keep his factories open)


Let's refrain from political stuff in this thread please.


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## robot zombie (Oct 11, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Wait, what? I know of at least 2 children that have had it.


Was gonna say... I know of about a dozen. One of the parents got severely ill and spent some time in the hospital getting oxygen. Fortunately he is okay.



> No one is going to argue that point too much. Interestingly, the picture is somewhat rosier stateside, at least in my region. However, we knew this was going to happen. This is reality and it's a part of working through the problem the pandemic has presented and getting on with life.


The issue most people have is that any of these social "hub" points that give rise to lots of spreading directly contradict with getting on with life, because past a certain point, the only option left is to close them back down. Things have been somewhat okay here in Florida but concerns are quickly rising over essentially removing all of the restrictions. Which is leading to lots of people gathering everywhere with no precautions taken at all. I know that a lot of people are antsy to get on with things after so much time, but I feel the confidence for us in FL is misplaced. Looking at the stats, we have things about as "under control" as the last re-opening ~May. By June we would see the start of the largest spike the state had seen. It was a disaster with a capital D. The one that at the time put us on the map as one of the "hottest states" in the country.

It seems like you can get away with one or two things loosening at a time, but past a certain threshold, where too many open "hubs" meet via people crossing over more than two, is when things get majorly out of control. We'll be an interesting case study here in FL. School re-openings were... mixed. There was little emphasis or clarity on how many students were actually getting it, or how that translated to adult cases. All that really surfaced were reports upon reports of classes quarantining. Within 2 weeks we saw hundreds of kids go back home, just in the tri-county. Passed 1000 in no time flat. But nobody really knows what happened from there, or how far the consequences might have reached. The general attitude among people here is precisely that "life goes on" deal. Meaning the between the time when their child was exposed and when they found out, it is possible that they were exposed by proxy and then took that on their outings, where many of them and the people around them are leaving a lot of openings. But it really is kind of a big question mark. There's not a lot of information to be found.

Data transparency has generally been garbage though... there's always some scandal going on with fingers getting pointed first at Quest, and now Helix. All over larger quantities of missing results in the reports. I don't get it. It would tilt the % positive lower, but means little if the bare positivity rate rises with all tests accounted for. I would figure more people getting tested means more people getting symptoms (hence the prompt to test) and more people having known contact. This will mean more negatives, too. But still points to an uptick.

Either way the fact remains that in terms of day-by-day positives we're either flat, or showing slight increases in cases. And that could be the clincher for how reopening the state ultimately goes. I'd wager part of the reason we leveled-out/slid back (instead of steadily decreasing, as we had been) was because the schools were opened back up. It's difficult to gauge how things are really going to shake down. Logic dictates that adding points of contact/exposure will increase cases. The question will be how, and by how much?

Sometimes to start a fire, just lighting any part of the kindling isn't enough. It'll smoulder and fizzle. It only really gets going when you light it on multiple sides at once.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 11, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> While I haven't seen that, such would not be surprising at all. Though I do believe immunity is a thing, I think is has nothing to do with age. I had it, my wife didn't. My younger son got it, his twin sister did not. My adult daughter got it, her husband and two children did not. We all live in the same house and have all been tested several times before and after the infections were present here.



You can get the antibody test to check for immunity. Don't just guess at these things. If you want to know, you should check.

If your body was ever exposed to COVID19, your blood will have the antiviral antibodies flowing through it. If those antibodies are detected, you're immune, and can therefore serve greater roles in the community. Well, probably immune, there's a degree of false positives and false negatives, but its still good information to have.

The main question is how long does immunity last? The flu's immunity is only ~6 months, for example. But some other diseases are lifetime immunity.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 11, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You can get the antibody test to check for immunity. Don't just guess at these things. If you want to know, you should check.
> 
> If your body was ever exposed to COVID19, your blood will have the antiviral antibodies flowing through it. If those antibodies are detected, you're immune, and can therefore serve greater roles in the community. Well, probably immune, there's a degree of false positives and false negatives, but its still good information to have.


Some of that is incorrect. Just because a person has had it and recovered doesn't mean one is immune. A person can be reinfected. The potential immunity I'm taking about is the fact that some people are just not getting it because their body either kills it quickly or is unaffected by it at all.


dragontamer5788 said:


> The main question is how long does immunity last? The flu's immunity is only ~6 months, for example. But some other diseases are lifetime immunity.


True.


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## hat (Oct 11, 2020)

All the kids going back to school is going to be a big problem... especially without any help from summer heat and UV bombardment. I'm not too old to remember what school was like... 20 kids or more with barely any space between desks, hallways stuffed to the gills with barely any room to move during class changes. It is easily imaginable that schools opening back up are a huge contributor.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 11, 2020)

Washington Post has a great state-by-state diagram for COVID19, showing which states are doing the best, or worst per capita. It seems like the Midwest is in the middle of a resurgence.


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## John Naylor (Oct 11, 2020)

I agree that political specifics and "blamestorming" are best avoided as it just leads to side discussions and no minds will ever be changed, but, for example .....  yesterday after losing a football game, a college football coach called for the university to lift the restrictions and fill the stadium with 90,000 people so they could have an edge over the visiting team ?     Really ? how many lives are worth that extra edge  ?









						Frustrated Mullen Says Gators Should 'Pack The Swamp' After Loss
					

Florida Gators head coach Dan Mullen wants Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at full capacity, pandemic be damned.




					www.si.com
				




A wedding in Maine was attended by 65 people (with up to 100 on site) .... As of September 20 ... there's been 270 new infections and 8 deaths, none of the 8 were people who attended the wedding but died because someone brought the infection home.

When you see discussions about the dominance of the SEC in college football, .. the SEC has  won 10 of the 14 championships, and IIRC, played in all but 1 championship games.   Fans claim it's because of TV money, favoritism, and many other reasons and like politics, no one is going to convince folks on either side to change their opinion.  Same is true with brand loyalties for PC componenets.  But the fact remains, when you look at the NFL Draft, for 14 years running, the SEC has  "won" the NFL draft placing more players in the NFL every year for 14 years in a row .... and by large margins.   That kinda takes it outta the realm of opinion. 

Different states face different challenges ... States with < 10 people per square mile are not facing the kind of challenge that states with multiples cities in excess of 1 million people. People's health is the main focus here .... and there is certainly nothing to be gained blamestorming.  But we have to be most concerned about where the new  infection rate is high and where it is is low ... if it's rising, then whatever they are doing is not enough ... where it's falling, then what those folks are doing is working.   This is simple .... math and science are not subject to opinion.    If you live in a state at the top of the list, what they are doing is not working ...the states at the bottom of the list are doing it right.

Every aspect of life, regulation, habits, mask policy, habits, work schedules, whatever should be evaluated.   Any commonality among those at the top indicates a probable cause of increased infection .... any commonality among those at the bottom will indicate a high likelihood of "best practices".   While I do not see any benefit to discussing political ideology in an open forum, we also can't say let's not consider it as a contributing factor in each state's ability to cut infection rates.

As of today, the worst to best are:
(This table is sorted by places with the most cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days )

North Dakota    459
South Dakota    448
Montana    339
Wisconsin    305
Utah    264
Guam    261
Idaho    236
Nebraska    232
Missouri    218
Iowa    215
Oklahoma    199
Arkansas    189
Wyoming    188
Tennessee    186
Alaska    169
Kansas    162
Mississippi    150
Minnesota    143
Indiana    139
Kentucky    136
Illinois    130
Alabama    125
North Carolina    123
Nevada    118
New Mexico    116
Rhode Island    115
South Carolina    111
Louisiana    99
Texas    98
Delaware    90
Colorado    89
Puerto Rico    88
Virginia    83
Georgia    83
Michigan    82
Ohio    81
West Virginia    81
Pennsylvania    74
Florida    67
Maryland    66
Washington, D.C.    63
Arizona    63
New Jersey    60
Massachusetts    59
California    58
Oregon    57
Washington    53
New York    50
Connecticut    49
Hawaii    46
New Hampshire    36
Maine    16
Northern Mariana Islands    13
Vermont    13
U.S. Virgin Islands    4
American Samoa    0


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 12, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Washington Post has a great state-by-state diagram for COVID19, showing which states are doing the best, or worst per capita. It seems like the Midwest is in the middle of a resurgence.
> 
> View attachment 171524


This set of graphs is interesting as it shows a difference from state(territory) to state as well as from geographic region to region.


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## EarthDog (Oct 12, 2020)

hat said:


> All the kids going back to school is going to be a big problem... especially without any help from summer heat and UV bombardment. I'm not too old to remember what school was like... 20 kids or more with barely any space between desks, hallways stuffed to the gills with barely any room to move during class changes. It is easily imaginable that schools opening back up are a huge contributor.


im not sure (in ohio) most districts have gone back all in. I know around my area,  Columbus, they are in hybrid mode... so classes are cut in half, essentially. The kids are in two groups, divided by last name (a-m, n-z) and one goes M/W the other T/Th..every other Friday. Keeps class size low. In the mid to low teens.


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## HTC (Oct 12, 2020)

John Naylor said:


> A wedding in Maine was attended by 65 people (with up to 100 on site) .... As of September 20 ... there's been 270 new infections and 8 deaths, *none of the 8 were people who attended the wedding but died because someone brought the infection home.*



This is a "perfect example" of why it's so dangerous to be complacent while facing this virus: it's why it's IMPERATIVE to follow health guidelines


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## harm9963 (Oct 13, 2020)

Texas should be a Country and Harris County  a State


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## harm9963 (Oct 17, 2020)

Were open for business !


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## HTC (Oct 17, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Were open for business !View attachment 172141



Do you have access to fatalities by age, similar to that "age groups impacted", on the top center of this pic? A comparison between the two should show a striking difference since we know that the elderly are the worst hit age groups.


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## harm9963 (Oct 17, 2020)

ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					txdshs.maps.arcgis.com
				



 Perfect Storm !


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## Caring1 (Oct 18, 2020)

Off topic but I find that last chart racist defining white/ black as a race or ethnicity.


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## HTC (Oct 18, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> ArcGIS Dashboards
> 
> 
> ArcGIS Dashboards
> ...



It can be clearly seen that, despite those aged 20 - 39 being the ones with the most infected cases, they are "little to not affected" in terms of fatalities: this gives a false sense of "security" to those in that age bracket that get the virus, so they tend to act like "it's no big deal" when in fact they tend to ignore that they may well infect others before being cured, starting with family members which, depending on their age, may not be "as immune" as them.


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## harm9963 (Oct 18, 2020)

HTC said:


> It can be clearly seen that, despite those aged 20 - 39 being the ones with the most infected cases, they are "little to not affected" in terms of fatalities: this gives a false sense of "security" to those in that age bracket that get the virus, so they tend to act like "it's no big deal" when in fact they tend to ignore that they may well infect others before being cured, starting with family members which, depending on their age, may not be "as immune" as them.


Sad but true!


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 18, 2020)

Caring1 said:


> Off topic but I find that last chart racist defining white/ black as a race or ethnicity.


Yup, that was as off topic as it was wrong.


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## Tatty_One (Oct 18, 2020)

HTC said:


> It can be clearly seen that, despite those aged 20 - 39 being the ones with the most infected cases, they are "little to not affected" in terms of fatalities: this gives a false sense of "security" to those in that age bracket that get the virus, so they tend to act like "it's no big deal" when in fact they tend to ignore that they may well infect others before being cured, starting with family members which, depending on their age, may not be "as immune" as them.


They know that though, just many don't care.  The last 24 hours in the UK saw 150 further fatalities and 16,171 further infections.


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## Drone69 (Oct 18, 2020)

One of my daughters falls into the ignorant or just don`t care category. She complains she has had to cancel a couple of holidays and can`t spend more time in the pub.


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## Tatty_One (Oct 18, 2020)

Drone69 said:


> One of my daughters falls into the ignorant or just don`t care category. She complains she has had to cancel a couple of holidays and can`t spend more time in the pub.


I can understand it to a certain extent, I have had to cancel 3 holidays, one to Mexico, the upside to that was that we were paying for the whole family (6) to go for a 2 week all inclusive to celebrate my and my wife's 60th........ at least I am nearly £7k better off for it!  Where you are it may be that there will be no time to spend in the pub soon although I am sure there will be plenty more of us to follow before the Winter is done.


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## Drone69 (Oct 18, 2020)

She has already been on 3 holidays so far this year. She is a bigger risk than my youngest grandson and he is in classroom with 29 other kids.


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## HTC (Oct 18, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 38730 active cases --- 7333 more --- 1047.6 more per day
- 59000 recovered --- 5813 more --- 830.4 more per day
- 2181 fatalities --- 101 more --- 14.4 more per day
- 99911 confirmed infected --- 13247 more --- 1892.4 more per day

- 2997046 tests taken --- 205617 more --- 25702.1 more per day but was last updated October 16th
- 54851 under watch --- 6438 more --- 919.7 more per day
- 1086 hospitalized --- 243 more --- 34.7 more per day
- 155 in ICU --- 31 more --- 4.4 more per day

Our new infected cases rose even more significantly VS last week with over 76%: nearly 1900 new daily cases per day. Also had a significant increase in hospitalized, with nearly 29% VS last week. Last but not least, last Friday we had our daily highest death toll since May 4th, with 21 fatalities.

As can be seen by our daily cases' history (click for full picture), our daily case numbers have been rising since just before mid September but they have skyrocketed this month, like in many other European countries:



In Portugal, those working in hospitals that have NOT caught this virus have mostly been without breaks in their work hours and, in many cases, have actually accumulated a ridiculous amount of overtime because, simply put, their hospitals / health centers wouldn't be able to properly function otherwise. But the flu season is yet to begin so it's highly likely it will only get worse and those that work in hospital / health centers are getting drained, both physically as well as mentally.

Seriously NOT good @ ALL


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## harm9963 (Oct 18, 2020)

Harris County is  one of 224  County's in  Texas .


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## harm9963 (Oct 20, 2020)

Sad !


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## Space Lynx (Oct 20, 2020)

Drone69 said:


> She has already been on 3 holidays so far this year. She is a bigger risk than my youngest grandson and he is in classroom with 29 other kids.



It really is sad to me how many young people especially at the college level, seem to have 0 disregard for the elderly and vulnerable, and unable to understand the context of the situation. Such as when Elon Musk or Joe Rogan just says hey old people stay home, hey vulnerable people stay home. Well, a lot of old people even well in to their 70's like my Dad, still have to work daily just to get by. Sure a mask helps a lot, but this virus sheds itself like no ones business, and can last up 20 hours on some surfaces, so when these reckless young people are asymptomatic and still shedding through their spittle when they talk, or before they put a mask on in their car, they have already had a lot of shedding in that car, so they touch stuff in grocery store, money exchange if no card, so many variables basically no one human can understand them all. 

That is the ultimate point I suppose, it is the hubris of young people, I don't hate them for it, I was once a young man of 20 and felt invincible like I could take on the world, then at 21 I was in a car wreck no one else was hurt, but I destroyed my car and should have died. Ever since that day I learned I am not invincible and I have become very humble in life. Most people don't have near death experiences though, and so their hubris and lack of understanding continues. 

I have read a few stories about a grand kid going to a party then going to visit their grandparents and one of them ends up dying from Covid. It's really sad. But again since it is so rare, the hubris still remains intact for the majority of the young people. That being said, I am slightly on the autism spectrum, not that much but some, so I have never had any friends to go to pub with, or go party with, in-fact all 6 years of my university career I never went to a single party. I would have liked to, but my peer group does not care about people like me and is not willing to understand that I just need a little extra help sometimes socially. But since I am not normal, I am automatically cast aside, as are the vulnerable and elderly. You would think University would produce more thoughtful individuals wouldn't you? 

I remember reading a book, I forget which Pope said it, but it was like around 1000 years ago or so, one of the Pope's said University has become nothing but a place for young people to engage in drunkenness' and idleness, and I remember after reading that how funny I found it to be. Not much has changed in the year 2020.


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## harm9963 (Oct 20, 2020)

I knew when they try to open !








						Houston doctors say 3 things are leading to next COVID-19 wave
					

COVID-19 cases are rising in Texas again. What does this mean for you and your family? Experts say people should be more cautious.




					abc13.com


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## Drone69 (Oct 20, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> It really is sad to me how many young people especially at the college level, seem to have 0 disregard for the elderly and vulnerable, and unable to understand the context of the situation. Such as when Elon Musk or Joe Rogan just says hey old people stay home, hey vulnerable people stay home. Well, a lot of old people even well in to their 70's like my Dad, still have to work daily just to get by. Sure a mask helps a lot, but this virus sheds itself like no ones business, and can last up 20 hours on some surfaces, so when these reckless young people are asymptomatic and still shedding through their spittle when they talk, or before they put a mask on in their car, they have already had a lot of shedding in that car, so they touch stuff in grocery store, money exchange if no card, so many variables basically no one human can understand them all.



I`m not too happy with her myself. I have End Stage Emphysema so I`m fully aware of the risk she is to myself and others. I haven`t left my home since March because of the risk. The only way she will learn is if she gets fined or catches covid herself.  She thinks going to the pub is `safe` because everyone sits at tables now, which is just so wrong but she thinks she knows better than anyone else. She went to university so that probably explains it. My other two daughters are following the rules I`m pleased to say though.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 20, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Looks like "wave 2" is hitting Europe now. All waves crest up, but eventually recede. This too shall pass.



So far none of it passed. Somebody said something about a Hammer and a Dance but all we really did was swing a hammer once and then forgot about dancing... so now we're looking at a baseline and wave 2 is coming right on top of it.

Meanwhile there are more instances of people getting it a second time within several months. Looks like a seasonal virus much like a common cold, can easily get it several times per year - if exposed to a high enough concentration. That also means vaccines will be of limited use. But... let's hope this turns out more positive than that, data on it is minimal.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 20, 2020)

I think I can safely say that Maryland is climbing upwards, despite our steady %Positive and #Confirmed Cases numbers.

Hospitalization is *clearly* on the upwards trend.


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## harm9963 (Oct 22, 2020)

Put your seatbelt on!


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 23, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Put your seatbelt on!View attachment 172969


Seems like a case of one set of people not knowing what they're talking about, blowing things out of proportion and making problems where there are none.


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## harm9963 (Oct 23, 2020)

I hope by March ,when i go back to work , this is over and in my rear view  mirror.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Seem like a case of one set of people not knowing what they're talking about, blowing things out of proportion and making problems where there are none.



Its called the second wave that is currently washing over Europe already. As in March, it will hit you guys a bit later. It all falls into place soon buddy. We've been here before. 221k dead and counting... All the stars have aligned again to repeat the whole episode, see? Including lots of non-discussion about what numbers are accurate and what is not. The facts don't lie though, cases and positive test % are going up, and globablly the net number of infections is still hitting new records since the whole thing began. Its still growing even if we manage to push curves down temporarily.

Here is a graph, look how close and rapidly we are approaching the first wave numbers already. The curve seems a bit less aggressive though, we've learned a thing or two about when to hospitalize. These are IC numbers of new patients per day/week in the Netherlands.

I think you can consider Texas to be on the 17/09 moment in time, just about, comparatively.


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## HTC (Oct 23, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Here is a graph, look how close and rapidly we are approaching the first wave numbers already. The curve seems a bit less aggressive though, we've learned a thing or two about when to hospitalize. *These are IC numbers of new patients per day/week in the Netherlands*.
> 
> I think you can consider Texas to be on the 17/09 moment in time, just about, comparatively.
> 
> View attachment 173011



Here in Portugal, we've already crossed the highest hospitalized number from March but are still roughly 3/5 of the way regarding ICU numbers:





The highest ICU number we had in April was 271 and we've now reached 200. Hospitalized number is rising WAY too fast, with 1365 (VS 1302, back in April): doesn't look good


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 23, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its called the second wave that is currently washing over Europe already.


I disagree. The numbers shown do not bare that out. I call it a misinterpretation of known data.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> I disagree. The numbers shown do not bare that out. I call it a misinterpretation of known data.



OK


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## Tomgang (Oct 23, 2020)

Denmark is also again begin to see more infected. Leter today, Danish Goverment will present new restrictions for the first time since late september where the first restriction was set in.

This week infected numbers has gone from bad to worse.
Just the last 3 days.
has been 689, 760 and today 859 infected and the higest we have ever reccorded until now. Right now we have 125 in hospital and just under 700 dead.
But there are no douts, just as many other countries. The Seconds wave of Covid-19 has hit Denmark... sadly. Just as i had found a new job, now i might lose it again. Dam Virus.


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## Tatty_One (Oct 23, 2020)

What can clearly be seen is from a number of European countries, when the 2nd wave comes, if the starting point is already higher infection rates than when lockdowns were imposed back in the spring, the finishing point (peak) of the 2nd wave will likely cause more deaths than the 1st wave, possibly significantly more, some of that of course is down to the winter and the higher ICU demand in any case.

Only time will tell who is right, in terms of the US, a lot has been said in the UK media today about the them having around 1000 deaths yesterday, I would argue if that is the case that the UK is at least as bad if not worse, the US has 5 - 6 times the population than the UK and we are getting 150 - 200 deaths each day, albeit that is a very recent upwards move, the only  significant factor to mitigate those UK numbers is that we have 7 or 8 times the population density of the US, but the UK has acknowledged that it is well into a 2nd wave.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 23, 2020)

The US never left the first wave. The term is a visible analogy to a sine graph of amplitude (nothing more, IMO, it's a semantic term useful for description but in reality it has zero meaning). The US has been rolling under a consistent tsunami of 1000 deaths/day for a long time. It never got it under control (due to mixed messages and perceptions of the meaning of freedom). But then again, countries with low population density, such as the US, Russia, Canada, etc, should have lower incidence. Anyway, Europe got a grip on it and then re-opened - the effect is now plain to see. Choose your poison: lockdown, look good, recover and BAM! - or have a constant 'death of a thousand paper cuts'. What is abundantly clear is that this virus will continue unabated until we beat it with a vaccine or it mutates into something (hopefully) less contagious. 

Frankly, I believe countries that politicise and/or downplay the virus cannot be trusted with stats. For TPU reasons, I shall not list them here.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> What is abundantly clear is that this virus will continue unabated until we beat it with a vaccine*, people develop resistance to it or* it mutates into something (hopefully) less contagious.


You left one out. 

The thing stateside is that most people feel it's best to let things run it's course, taking simple precautions for the vulnerable. This is why infection rates have remained somewhat steady.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> You left one out.



Fingers and toes crossed.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 23, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> The US never left the first wave. The term is a visible analogy to a sine graph of amplitude (nothing more, IMO, it's a semantic term useful for description but in reality it has zero meaning). The US has been rolling under a consistent tsunami of 1000 deaths/day for a long time. It never got it under control (due to mixed messages and perceptions of the meaning of freedom). But then again, countries with low population density, such as the US, Russia, Canada, etc, should have lower incidence. Anyway, Europe got a grip on it and then re-opened - the effect is now plain to see. Choose your poison: lockdown, look good, recover and BAM! - or have a constant 'death of a thousand paper cuts'. What is abundantly clear is that this virus will continue unabated until we beat it with a vaccine or it mutates into something (hopefully) less contagious.
> 
> Frankly, I believe countries that politicise and/or downplay the virus cannot be trusted with stats. For TPU reasons, I shall not list them here.



I don't think we'll defeat it. We'll add it to a long and growing list of possible ways to die, like cancer, or indeed much more samey: the flu.

The issue now is getting those numbers and the knowledge on a similar level as we have it on flu, so we can feel the same way about it and go about our business in the same way as we do with that 'constant threat' present. All early vaccine results (failures) show the same thing. This thing will mutate and it already has, it can reinfect and it will keep doing its business.

its either that or we'll all become plugged in to the mainframe because going outside might cause death and destruction. I don't think that'll fly. Already you're seeing the resistance in all layers of society -  you can't keep people on a leash for too long, and certainly not on this one of constantly changing measures and restrictions. On the other end we suffer the danger of those measures becoming our new reality. Its happening, and slowly but surely I'm seeing common sense slip away from us.

Still today the biggest danger isn't the virus, its what we do with it and that is a direct result of the way we manage our societies.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 23, 2020)

As has been proven again and again, when COVID19 spikes, it largely follows an exponential curve.

Now true: all diseases follow a logistic curve (aka: the S-curve) in the long run. But the logistic-curve's "left side" looks extremely similar to an exponential one, and we can simplify the math if we focus on the short-term exponential-looking side of the graph. (Besides, no one is really arguing that 20-billion will be infected: everyone understands that the #of humans is the hard cap on the number of infected). Given the size of COVID (ie: 10s of millions infected), we're still very far away from anything looking like an S-curve.

In the meantime: hospitalizations are spiking upwards in 38/50 states in the past week.

------

USA is complicated. I think its best to see the USA as a collection of 50 different locations, instead of aggregating the data. What happens in Nebraska says almost nothing about what's going on in Florida. Though Florida has correlations to far away locations like Maryland / New York, due to the location of railroads and highways: these sorts of facts are probably hard for non-locals to understand. Regardless, its safe to say that something like Nebraska is so far away from Florida that there's nothing those two states really say about each other, with regards to this disease.



lexluthermiester said:


> The thing stateside is that most people feel it's best to let things run it's course, taking simple precautions for the vulnerable. This is why infection rates have remained somewhat steady.



Depends on the State, depends on the number of infections.

Arizona was proudly proclaiming that they were willing to let things run its course, then hospitals filled up and then the lockdowns happened anyway. For the most part, people are willing to "let things run its course" when the disease is many states away, but if a state was in fact hit (and hit hard)... such as Texas or Arizona, they change their tune almost immediately.

That gives you the worst of both worlds: if you lockdown late, then you have to lockdown for a longer period of time to compensate for the exponential growth. Just a week extra time of growth can double, or triple, the instances of the virus. If you are going to lockdown, you should decide earlier, rather than later.


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## HTC (Oct 23, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> If you are going to lockdown, *you should decide earlier, rather than later*.



Exactly: the longer the delay, the harder it is to drive the numbers down to a much more manageable level.


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## harm9963 (Oct 23, 2020)

Knew this would happen.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 23, 2020)

More data showing the usefulness of masks.


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## harm9963 (Oct 25, 2020)

C

ome on!


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## Vayra86 (Oct 25, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 173103
> 
> More data showing the usefulness of masks.



Well, we're (finally - I'm not, mind... unless its unavoidable which is barely the case over here) using masks and still going straight into a second wave no matter what. Masks are a good way to keep dragging things out and postpone the inevitable, at best. It won't cure or help anyone, on the contrary... because any time you wait with initiating 'the Hammer' (lockdown)... you're trying some weird dance you'll never win, because exponential growth is still happening. Its bringing sand to the beach.

Its just that simple and the coming period will bear that out crystal clear. Mask won't be helping or stopping anything, merely slowing it down and allowing us to look the other way and live in denial. Meanwhile, protests are also starting to happen everywhere in Europe because measures are being dragged out for too long. Long term (mental) damage is being done as we speak.

For EU, the reality is we should've straight up initiated lockdowns in early September, because we already had the data we're seeing now. It was ignored, because 'muh economy'... its a repeat of the affair in March. Now the economy will suffer regardless because soon we can't deny a forced lockdown anyway. Its very human, its very stupid, and history repeats.

Btw, I'm not seeking to reopen the mask debate. I just observe the numbers and conclude the above - the more you zoom out, the clearer it becomes. Worldwide we're still gaining infected %, so the simple reality is, mask isn't helping at all. You can't micromanage this at all, either - you can only do that, if you've successfully hammered it down to a manageable number which it hasn't been since this whole thing began in January. What all the micromanagement does do for us, is slowly drive us insane.


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## HTC (Oct 25, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 47493 active cases --- 8763 more --- 1251.9 more per day
- 68877 recovered --- 9877 more --- 1411 more per day
- 2316 fatalities --- 135 more --- 19.3 more per day
- 118686 confirmed infected --- 18775 more --- 2682.1 more per day

- 3156991 tests taken --- 159945 more --- 26657.5 more per day but was last updated October 22nd
- 58759 under watch --- 3908 more ---558.3 more per day
- 1574 hospitalized --- 488 more --- 69.7 more per day
- 230 in ICU --- 75 more --- 10.7 more per day

There are two pics dated Oct 24th but the 1st actually has data from the 23rd.

Our new infected cases rose significantly VS last week, yet again, with nearly 42%: nearly 2700 new daily cases per day. Also had a DOUBLING in hospitalized, with just over 102% increase and over 140% increase in average daily ICU, when compared to last week, as well as 34% increase in average daily fatalities.

As much as our political leaders try to deny going back to full lockdown, unless our situation improves AND SOON, i see no other way to escape that, in this 2nd wave. That said, i seriously doubt we can afford it, from an economic point of view.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 25, 2020)

Weird thing though is that stateside we're not seeing the same surge. Most areas of the US and Canada seem to be holding more or less steady. This is getting interesting..



HTC said:


> As much as our political leaders try to deny going back to full lockdown, unless our situation improves and SOON, i see no other way to escape just that, in this 2nd wave.


The problem is that world leaders are looking at history for lessons to be learned and history tells us that precautions will only slow things down a bit. We, as a whole civilization, need to accept the fact that this virus is going to run it's course whether we like it or not. We are powerless to stop it. So instead of focusing efforts on tactics and attempted precautions that will have little to no effect, we need to focus on treatment & recovery both medically and economically. The world economy and society as a whole can not continue the "shutdown madness" that has gripped us. It's time to reopen everything and get back to living instead of cowering in fear of anything and everything that might cross our path.


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## HTC (Oct 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> The problem is that world leaders are looking at history for lessons to be learned and history tells us that precautions will only slow things down a bit. We, as a whole civilization, need to accept the fact that this virus is going to run it's course whether we like it or not. We are powerless to stop it. So instead of focusing efforts on tactics and attempted precautions that will have little to no effect, *we need to focus on treatment & recovery both medically and economically.* The world economy and society as a whole can not continue the "shutdown madness" that has gripped us. It's time to reopen everything and get back to living instead of cowering in fear of anything and everything that might cross our path.



But that's a "good case scenario". The problem is that we need to hope for the best WHILE preparing for the worst.


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## EarthDog (Oct 25, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Well, we're (finally - I'm not, mind... unless its unavoidable which is barely the case over here) using masks and still going straight into a second wave no matter what. Masks are a good way to keep dragging things out and postpone the inevitable, at best. It won't cure or help anyone, on the contrary... because any time you wait with initiating 'the Hammer' (lockdown)... you're trying some weird dance you'll never win, because exponential growth is still happening. Its bringing sand to the beach.
> 
> Its just that simple and the coming period will bear that out crystal clear. Mask won't be helping or stopping anything, merely slowing it down and allowing us to look the other way and live in denial. Meanwhile, protests are also starting to happen everywhere in Europe because measures are being dragged out for too long. Long term (mental) damage is being done as we speak.
> 
> ...


Lets look at the data when we didnt wear masks and what happened...there is one dataset... the start of the pandemic and where it was trending. The problem now isn't so much community spread as it is the small gatherings where people eschew use. Sturgis... blatant disregard was a part of the surge in recent weeks. Schools went back...all a part of it. You simply cannot disregard the FACT that masks work glossing over other reasons for the surge. It isnt the people in retail and in grocery stores where (in ohio) masks are mandatory. But unmasked situations, indoor eating, for one small example is a part of it. 

But yeah... the problem is any health care system not being able to cope with a "f it all" no masks and THAT surge. Its that mentality that takes it from manageable to overwhelmed health systems and unnecessary deaths. Im certainly not condoning lockouts... we at least need to get these 'f all' anti maskers, herd immunity, college/youth to takes things a bit more seriously.


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## Tatty_One (Oct 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Weird thing though is that stateside we're not seeing the same surge. Most areas of the US and Canada seem to be holding more or less steady. This is getting interesting..
> 
> 
> The problem is that world leaders are looking at history for lessons to be learned and history tells us that precautions will only slow things down a bit. We, as a whole civilization, need to accept the fact that this virus is going to run it's course whether we like it or not. We are powerless to stop it. So instead of focusing efforts on tactics and attempted precautions that will have little to no effect, we need to focus on treatment & recovery both medically and economically. The world economy and society as a whole can not continue the "shutdown madness" that has gripped us. It's time to reopen everything and get back to living instead of cowering in fear of anything and everything that might cross our path.


The courses of action most countries are taking, rightly or wrongly is to try and minimise loss of life along with trying to mitigate the economic effects until a vaccine(s) becomes widely available, I do agree though that by putting all the eggs in one basket could be hugely risky.  Looking at your stats, since the middle of this month you have had the highest daily infection rates that you have had for months and according to the CDC almost half a million new infections in the last week.

There was a guy on one of our news channels this morning, he is an ex Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government and apparently has been instrumental globally for contributing significantly to vaccine development over the last 30 years, he said something quite simple, I am not totally sure that I would agree with him but he said that if we had had no lockdowns or restrictions at all but everyone in the country back in early February kept 2 metres distance, wore a decent quality face mask and washed their hands regularly the virus would have been defeated in 10 weeks in so much as the infection rates, whilst still in existence would have been of the proportion that it would have just died out, he went on to say though in order for that to work the people would have to buy in with a greater commitment than they did for lockdown in order to be successful.


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## blobster21 (Oct 25, 2020)

Me at work:
-Wear mask at any given time
-Rub hydroalcoolic gel on my hands whenever a dispenser is available
....
then goes to the campus restaurant during lunch time, together with 600 others youngsters, sitting next to each others / in front of each others like there was no pandemy.

What a mess...


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## the54thvoid (Oct 25, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Weird thing though is that stateside we're not seeing the same surge.



That's because the surge is an effect of having initially suppresed it, something the states never managed to do. 





What the graph shows is no significant reduction in cases, rather a very minor drop before a large swell in July. From then, it dipped again and has once again risen higher.
The deaths graph bears out this constant onlsaught of cases.






The current 7 day average for UK is 167 deaths, US is 824 (which equates to the exact same multiple of population: x5). But, we're a small island and you guys have acres of space. The US, with a population density that's 7.5 times lower than the UK, shouldn't be seeing so many deaths.

Most EU countries brought deaths down to very low figures. We're now seeing a slight upick in deaths as we better manage treatment. However, the hospital cases are getting too high, as is the case in some US states, putting immense pressure on resources. This whole 'let it run its course' stance seems to ignore the logistical nightmare of hospitals at capacity and reduction in other treatments causing other co-morbidities.

The virus needs to be controlled for that purpose alone, logistical resource management. As you've said before Lex, we need to see immunity appear and a vaccine, unfortunately, that appears to be the long game and this Winter things appear to be getting far worse than thought.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 25, 2020)

HTC said:


> The problem is that we need to hope for the best WHILE preparing for the worst.


While that is good advice conceptually, in practice it's a bit doggy. The precautions being taken currently are not working as effectively as people/governments want them to. The only way to use isolation to stamp out this virus is to fully and completely shut the world down and force everyone and their dog to stay at home for a year. That can not and will not happen. So the only alternative is to just face facts and accept that this thing is going to run it's course and there is no stopping it.


Tatty_One said:


> The courses of action most countries are taking, rightly or wrongly is to try and minimize loss of life


But that's not happening. This thing is continuing on regardless of what we do. Full shutdowns slowed it down, but didn't stop it at all.


Tatty_One said:


> along with trying to mitigate the economic effects


Another thing that has, is and will continue to fail. It's already been disastrous.


Tatty_One said:


> until a vaccine(s) becomes widely available


And if that never happens? We can not afford to lean on the crutch of hope for a vaccine that may never come.


Tatty_One said:


> There was a guy on one of our news channels this morning, he is an ex Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government and apparently has been instrumental globally for contributing significantly to vaccine development over the last 30 years, he said something quite simple, I am not totally sure that I would agree with him but he said that if we had had no lockdowns or restrictions at all but everyone in the country back in early February kept 2 metres distance, wore a decent quality face mask and washed their hands regularly the virus would have been defeated in 10 weeks in so much as the infection rates, whilst still in existence would have been of the proportion that it would have just died out


Like you, I disagree with what he said. The epidemiology of how a virus works strongly works against those notions.


Tatty_One said:


> he went on to say though in order for that to work the people would have to buy in with a greater commitment than they did for lockdown in order to be successful.


But again at what cost? Whether we lose lives to the virus or we lose lives to the long term effects of isolation, we're going to lose lives. So the next question becomes, do we want to continue to destroy the world economy in the process?


the54thvoid said:


> That's because the surge is an effect of having initially *suppressed* it, something the states never managed to do.


Fair point.


the54thvoid said:


>


This graph shows what I was talking about, as an overall trend. Sure there are ups and downs, but things have been effectively steady on since May. What this clearly shows is that we're not stopping it.


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## HTC (Oct 25, 2020)

blobster21 said:


> Me at work:
> -Wear mask at any given time
> -Rub hydroalcoolic gel on my hands whenever a dispenser is available
> ....
> ...



In order for us to beat this pandemic, we ALL need to "work for it" @ ALL TIMES: "just @ work" isn't enough, as much as just "@ school" also isn't.

Last Monday was my sister's birthday and the main family got together just for the "cake and presents ceremony" (7 people in total, from 4 different households): we wore masks indoors @ all times, except when eating the cake, avoided any hugs and tried to keep some distance between us.



lexluthermiester said:


> While that is good advice conceptually, in practice it's a bit doggy. The precautions being taken currently are not working as effectively as people/governments want them to. The only way to use isolation to stamp out this virus is to fully and completely shut the world down and force everyone and their dog to stay at home for a year. That can not and will not happen. So the only alternative is to just face facts and *accept that this thing is going to run it's course and there is no stopping it*.



We may not be able to stop it but i'll be damned if i can't contribute to slow it down as much as possible, until a safe vaccine is found and distributed across the world, *however long that takes*.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 25, 2020)

HTC said:


> We may not be able to stop it but i'll be damned if i can't contribute to slow it down as much as possible


That is a personal choice no one should be discouraged from making, but it should not be forced.


HTC said:


> until a safe vaccine is found and distributed across the world, *however long that takes*.


As I said above, we can not afford to put all our hopes into a vaccine that might never come. That is a fools errand.


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## EarthDog (Oct 25, 2020)

What we see in the chart is panic... control and lockdown. Then, reopening... then, Memorial day holiday (surge), then 4th of July (big surge)... then 'zomg look at the numbers' (lower trend), then labor day (surge) plus schools start to open and here we are. If we didn't wear masks and social distance it would be exponentially worse and healthcare systems overrun (akin to NYC in the early days) Masks work. Social distancing works. Its science... even Zod believes.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 25, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> even Zod believes.


Zod?


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## EarthDog (Oct 25, 2020)

General Zod. It was (an attempt at) a joke.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Weird thing though is that stateside we're not seeing the same surge. Most areas of the US and Canada seem to be holding more or less steady. This is getting interesting..



What? The USA has reached an all-time COVID daily-count high just this past week, at +80,000 cases / day.









						The Third Wave of COVID-19 in the U.S. Is Officially Worse Than the First Two
					

As of Oct. 23, there was a weekly average of 21.2 infections per 100,000 residents in the U.S.




					time.com
				






> As of Oct. 24, there was a weekly average of 23.0 infections per 100,000 residents, up from 20.5 on July 19 and ticking rapidly upward. The country also set a new single-day record on Oct. 23 with 83,757 new cases.



This "third peak" is *already* worse than the 1st and 2nd waves, and there's no sign of it slowing down yet.

------

I mean, NYC, Maryland, California, etc. etc. are wearing masks and keeping things low for now. But... as a *country*, our numbers are pretty terrible. And unlike the 1st wave or 2nd wave, the 3rd wave is hitting widespread parts of the country. Its not just NYC / California (aka: 1st wave), or Texas/Florida/Arizona (2nd wave), but instead... 10+ midwestern states are all getting hit. We won't be able to focus our resources in just one area to make things better (or have isolated shutdowns in just one area) for this 3rd wave.

Even if a few midwestern states got hit... its not like we can move our hospital ships to those land-locked states. I'm not even sure how we get more hospital resources there. Like, how are we supposed to build up hospital infrastructure with the massive spike going on in North Dakota / South Dakota right now?


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## scowie (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> What we see in the chart is panic... control and lockdown. Then, reopening... then, Memorial day holiday (surge), then 4th of July (big surge)... then 'zomg look at the numbers' (lower trend), then labor day (surge) plus schools start to open and here we are. If we didn't wear masks and social distance it would be exponentially worse and healthcare systems overrun (akin to NYC in the early days) Masks work. Social distancing works. Its science... even Zod believes.


Actually, the science says that masks don't work, even in the surgery: https://principia-scientific.com/unmasked-revealing-a-shocking-medical-truth/


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## HTC (Oct 26, 2020)

scowie said:


> Actually, the science says that masks don't work, even in the surgery: https://principia-scientific.com/unmasked-revealing-a-shocking-medical-truth/



I'd like to see studies where the doctors / nurses in the operating room had "the standard flu" and were NOT using masks, to see if those results still applied: pretty sure they would not.

Never heard of the studies of that link but it is non the less interesting to know.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 26, 2020)

Marked LQ post (not deleted). The quoted article doesn't dicuss respiratory viral transmission - which doesn't help this debate at all. I may as well suggest nurses are prone to covid by being nurses, as opposed to the fact they are in contact with the virus. The site also has a claimed aim of attempting to consistently prove a negative hypothesis which means it is prone to err on a false assumption even where evidence tallies against the negative hypothesis. In other words, its a vehicle for one mans ego. Notably it has a conspiracy leaning agenda.









						Principia Scientific International (PSI)
					

CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence.




					mediabiasfactcheck.com


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> What? The USA has reached an all-time COVID daily-count high just this past week, at +80,000 cases / day.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not according to Johns Hopkins. Please review;





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
				




I trust them far more than most sources, including Time.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Lets look at the data when we didnt wear masks and what happened...there is one dataset... the start of the pandemic and where it was trending. The problem now isn't so much community spread as it is the small gatherings where people eschew use. Sturgis... blatant disregard was a part of the surge in recent weeks. Schools went back...all a part of it. You simply cannot disregard the FACT that masks work glossing over other reasons for the surge. It isnt the people in retail and in grocery stores where (in ohio) masks are mandatory. But unmasked situations, indoor eating, for one small example is a part of it.
> 
> But yeah... the problem is any health care system not being able to cope with a "f it all" no masks and THAT surge. Its that mentality that takes it from manageable to overwhelmed health systems and unnecessary deaths. Im certainly not condoning lockouts... we at least need to get these 'f all' anti maskers, herd immunity, college/youth to takes things a bit more seriously.



The data when we didn't wear masks isn't different from today at all. We're just better at determining what it means. Globally the numbers still go up, and they only went down when we locked down - not when we started using masks. Its really that simple. They help... and by doing so... they also do not, because they drag out a curve longer giving is an illusion somehow growth won't be exponential 'this time'... but it really still is. The R number drops a little bit, but it is still above 1 and we're still letting it slide.

"We need" is a BS approach that got us where we are now: nowhere. "We need" to lock down to be able to manage it and we're way past that point already, but still not in lockdown. You can wear twenty masks over your face, it won't stop any spread whatsoever, as the data shows. What we do have: rampant growth and uncontrollable policy of 'test and trace' that has never really worked... we used our summer time to sit back, go on holiday (many vital groups did and found themselves stuck in a hard place coming back, most notably the gov. testing facility medical staff, and school teachers) and not bring the curve and testing under complete control. So what happened next: Minister-President telling us 'we need to do better'... lmao. Just last week the King and family went on holiday to Greece... only to return a few days later because the shitstorm got out of control, obviously. People generally don't give a shit, because everyone really does care most about him/herself.

The new data we will get now, with the second wave, is going to be influenced by general fatigue among the masses: we're sick and tired of measures, healthcare personell is sick and tired (literally or mentally) of running the long shift in high stress environments, teachers are just simply not showing up to schools, and overall people start looking at each other '(note your own comment 'we need' - which is nothing other than a veiled 'you need to listen to me') to point the finger and tell them they're to blame for their prolonged misery. The next thought is 'Why would I still do it right?'

Thát is what will mark this winter season, mark my words and masks and all those other nonsensical half-measures are a big part of it. There wasn't a single virologist of name that recommended this prior to this crisis, but governments were still keen to ignore three quarters of all the other recommendations that scientists in the know díd give them. And they still ignore it, they still act on it way too slowly and they still cause the prolonged misery we're going into now.

I find myself repeating what I've said since the whole thing began: mass psychology is our greatest threat here.

I mean... : Mask
Yeah that's definitely not going wrong and that peak is definitely not sharper than it was when the crisis began... ?! Who are we fooling?








lexluthermiester said:


> Not according to Johns Hopkins. Please review;
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Please do review that... seems pretty accurate?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Please do review that... seems pretty accurate?


That depends on the stat you look at. For example;



Looking at the numbers from this perspective, the more accurate way of viewing such, it looks like it is holding steady. Information can be spin doctored a number of ways. But when we view the raw data in a form that excludes bias, we get a view of the real picture.


----------



## EarthDog (Oct 26, 2020)

Do tell where there is bias in these values...

...and why that chart (Log) is more accurate than daily cases...and infection rates.

If cases are holding steady, why are hospital/icu cases going up? It's contrary to our government's current message...


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## the54thvoid (Oct 26, 2020)

You've highlighted a logarithmic graph. I think you're pointing out the rate is not as steep, but if you look at the numbers on the Y Axis:





The scale in each box jumps from 1 to100 to 10,000 to 1,000,000

That next box is *ten million*. The whole purpose of a logarithmic scale is to deal with huge numbers. That is why the curve flattens out because the 'Y-axis' increases by one digit each time. What you've actually demonstrated is a massive jump in cases.

Here are the numbers based around each month. I've started in May to bring in the increased testing.

May - 1,141,000
June - 1,877,000 (64% monthly increase)
July - 2,789,000 (48% monthly increase)
August - 4,798,000 (72% monthly increase - OMG)
September - 6,293,000 (31% monthly increase - Phew!)

If Octobers numbers drop below 31%, you can hope there's a slowing. I think the August increase put the frighteners on a few states and some measures were taken?

However, let's not spin this any other way, the US isn't doing great at all. *225,000 deaths isn't a success*. And FTR, this isn't about saying boo-sucks to the US, most countries are having a torrid time with Covid. Even in little old Scotland, our (relatively smaller) numbers are still climbing far too fast with a rise in hospital admissions and deaths.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Do tell where there is bias in these values...
> 
> ...and why that chart (Log) is more accurate than daily cases...and infection rates.
> 
> If cases are holding steady, why are hospital/icu cases going up? It's contrary to our government's current message...



Hey, you need some true science to put your head in the sand indefinitely... Its just another example of what people the world over are truly doing. Twist the numbers a bit to make it look like all is well. We all do it, really... because we want to believe and hope tomorrow's going to get better.

But hope won't fix an R number below 1, and it won't fix numerous other global issues.

As I said...this is psychology at work.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> You've highlighted a logarithmic graph. I think you're pointing out the rate is not as steep, but if you look at the numbers on the Y Axis:
> 
> View attachment 173374
> 
> ...


True, it's a logarithmic scale and such a scale shows orders of magnitude. That's my point, the big picture shows this is propagating as expected. I would expect the next unit of measure is 100million, not ten million.

There is nothing we can do but sit back and watch things unfold. The shutdowns and preventions didn't and are not working as much as was wished for. @Vayra86 pointed out above, masks are not as effective as some have suggested(though I disagree that they are useless).



the54thvoid said:


> However, let's not spin this any other way, the US isn't doing great at all. *225,000 deaths isn't a success*. And FTR, this isn't about saying boo-sucks to the US, most countries are having a torrid time with Covid. Even in little old Scotland, our (relatively smaller) numbers are still climbing far too fast with a rise in hospital admissions and deaths.


Nor is this a competition. There is no success or failure in this pandemic, only the results and information about survival as well how the virus is spreading. At this time, we are in the same place humanity was in 1914: adapting to it's existence. There is no defeating this virus quickly. Even if a miracle vaccine came out tomorrow, it will still take years to administer it to everyone and even then the mutations/derivitives of the Covid19 virus will continue to afflict us. Regardless of how we look at the numbers on display from various sources the picture is clear, it is here to stay and we need to accept it, adapt to it and get on with life.


----------



## Vayra86 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> True it a logarithmic scale and such a scale shows orders of magnitude. That's my point, the big picture shows this is propagating as expected.I would expect the next unit of measure is 100million, not ten million.
> 
> There is nothing we can do but sit back and watch things unfold. The shutdowns and preventions didn't and are not working as much as was wished for. @Vayra86 pointed out above, masks are not as effective as some have suggested(though I disagree that they are useless).
> 
> ...



The summer months (June-July-Aug) actually did show a decline and that was the post-lockdown period. What's lost in the global numbers is how lockdowns were not effective everywhere at the same time and the moment one area flares up, another went down because Summer time isn't during the same period of the year everywhere either. Basically, if you see a net growth globally of near zero, that means your measures are effective, because you're also countering the increase of cases elsewhere then. The lockdowns also 'flattened the curve' which is effectively the same thing if you take a global number. The curve was flattened even globally.

This is the local / national effect of lockdowns:




Blue line is initiation of lockdown in the Netherlands. Graph shows number of people in hospital with COVID.

I think its pretty clear the Hammer works.



lexluthermiester said:


> True it a logarithmic scale and such a scale shows orders of magnitude. That's my point, the big picture shows this is propagating as expected.I would expect the next unit of measure is 100million, not ten million.
> 
> There is nothing we can do but sit back and watch things unfold. The shutdowns and preventions didn't and are not working as much as was wished for. @Vayra86 pointed out above, masks are not as effective as some have suggested(though I disagree that they are useless).
> 
> ...



I can really only agree with part of your conclusion - the one where we concede you can't stop this at all. Running its course however... that is simply not an option. Society will grind to a halt as all sorts of vital services fall apart, and the resulting damage will be far greater than COVID spread and damage alone. The current experiment however isn't working out very well either, its taking too long to keep up the status quo. That's why I advocate using those hammers from time to time - and use them very early in the onset of a new curve. its easier to keep up, even if it damages economy in the short term. Short term is irrelevant, we can fix that - all we need for that fix is political will.

Note that what I'm saying about this is no different than what's the overwhelming consensus among virologists and epidemiologists. Its just not the noise you hear in the media too much, because numerous filters are applied on that harsh reality. Its not what people want to hear, and more importantly what governments and commerce wants to hear. They want to hear its going to be business as usual, for as much as possible, so they can sit back and not make hard choices. And that's what we generally prefer to hear as well, obviously. We like good news.

People can't deal with uncertainty and if they do, it leads to a massive trust issue. Lockdowns are clear and simple: don't go out for X weeks. Time is defined clearly instead of 'potentially indefinite'.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> The summer months (June-July-Aug) actually did show a decline and that was the post-lockdown period. What's lost in the global numbers is how lockdowns were not effective everywhere at the same time and the moment one area flares up, another went down because Summer time isn't during the same period of the year everywhere either. Basically, if you see a net growth globally of near zero, that means your measures are effective, because you're also countering the increase of cases elsewhere then. The lockdowns also 'flattened the curve' which is effectively the same thing if you take a global number. The curve was flattened even globally.
> 
> This is the local / national effect of lockdowns:
> 
> ...


This is the problem with all the numbers being declared everywhere, there is so much valid context that seems to be contradictive when it is valid as an isolated metric. Compiling it all together is very difficult as the compiler has to use bias to select what is and is not a contributing factor to the overall resulting viewpoint.


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## EarthDog (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> True it a logarithmic scale and such a scale shows orders of magnitude. That's my point, the big picture shows this is propagating as expected.I would expect the next unit of measure is 100million, not ten million.
> 
> There is nothing we can do but sit back and watch things unfold. The shutdowns and preventions didn't and are not working as much as was wished for. @Vayra86 pointed out above, masks are not as effective as some have suggested(though I disagree that they are useless).
> 
> ...


What about the bias you mention in these values? Can you explain how a log isn't bias but the actual numbers are? Before you answer, do know that both charts are based on the same data (ArcGIS you linked). So if there is bias in one chart, it would have to be in the log too, right? I wouldn't call it bias...I would say the interpretation (by users) is bias spinning data into their narrative (like the log chart for flattening the curve when it seems obvious why that is - see 54th's post).

There is success and failure in the handling of this virus. It's all around you in the data. Most any metric we've failed as a country in our response. To say otherwise is shocking to me considering the information available to us.


lexluthermiester said:


> This is the problem with all the numbers being declared everywhere, there is so much valid context that seems to be contradictive when it is valid as an isolated metric. Compiling it all together is very difficult as the compiler has to use bias to select what is and is not a contributing factor to the overall resulting viewpoint.


Such as.......? What values are bias and what aren't? I don't get what you are saying here... data is data. We need a lot of it to form the most accurate big picture we can. I see bias(or lack of knowledge) in personal interpretation, not the data.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Before you answer, do know that both charts are based on the same data.


Really? Do you think so? That never occurred to me....



EarthDog said:


> There is success and failure in the handling of this virus.


That would assume intent. A virus has no intelligence and therefore can not have intent. As such, there is no success or defeat. There is only survival and death. Let us not confuse those concepts. 



EarthDog said:


> Most any metric we've failed as a country in our response. To say otherwise is shocking to me considering the information available to us.


The "success" or "failure" of how we humans handle the virus is extremely subjective. You suggest that we as a nation should have been prepared for something we've never before encountered on such a massive scale. You suggest to hold accountability where none can exist. The whole world was caught off guard by this virus and we all have reacted the same way: the best we could given the information we had at each moment along the way. For a declaration of "Success" or "Failure" one must play the blame game, we need none of that here.


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## EarthDog (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Really? Do you think so? That never occurred to me....


Judging by your sarcasm(?), seems like it did. So... how is one chart showing bias while the other using the same data isn't? Are you able and willing to answer this question (3rd time I've asked). Show us the light if we're missing it. Just dropping a bang snap of a 'this is bias' and walking won't cut it. Tired if this MO of rarely answering direct questions. 


lexluthermiester said:


> That would assume intent. A virus has no intelligence and therefore can not have intent. As such, there is no success or defeat. There is only survival and death. Let us not confuse those concepts.
> 
> The "success" or "failure" of how we humans handle the virus is extremely subjective. You suggest that we as a nation should have been prepared for something we've never before encountered on such a massive scale. You suggest to hold accountability where none can exist. The whole world was caught off guard by this virus and we all have reacted the same way: the best we could given the information we had at each moment along the way. For a declaration of "Success" or "Failure" one must play the blame game, we need none of that here.


Assumes intent? Intent for what?
Accountability? What?
While the measure of success is subjective It is quite clear that some countries handled this/is handling better than others. Blame has nothing to do with it. I couldn't care less who was in charge... the response is the response and it is (lol, should be) apolitical.

Success or failure is dependent on the result, not whodunit/blame. Going by most available metrics, few would call the US response a success or positive. In fact, only the current government is saying such a thing (most of them, there is some dissention, more as time goes on).



Vayra86 said:


> Hey, you need some true science to put your head in the sand indefinitely... Its just another example of what people the world over are truly doing. Twist the numbers a bit to make it look like all is well. We all do it, really... because we want to believe and hope tomorrow's going to get better.
> 
> But hope won't fix an R number below 1, and it won't fix numerous other global issues.
> 
> As I said...this is psychology at work.


That's the problem, isn't it.. Look at what is going on here... 

In the case of this thread someone is telling us that the data is good for their chart, but charts based on the same data isn't. If that isn't putting your head in the sand, I don't know what is.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Judging by your sarcasm(?), seems like it did. So... how is one chart showing bias while the other using the same data isn't? Are you able and willing to answer this question (3rd time I've asked). Show us the light if we're missing it. Just dropping a bang snap of a 'this is bias' and walking won't cut it. Tired if this MO of rarely answering direct questions.
> Assumes intent? Intent for what?
> Accountability? What?
> While the measure of success is subjective It is quite clear that some countries handled this/is handling better than others. Blame has nothing to do with it. I couldn't care less who was in charge... the response is the response and it is (lol, should be) apolitical.
> ...



In lex's defense... what I'm getting out of it is that he acknowledges (correctly, IMO) that you can't stop this thing no matter what you do. That all the different measures have 'some' impact but it won't stop the general tide of growth, and that for him is 'business as usual' when it comes to the virus. A log scale showing growth is 'expected'. And I agree on that part, really, as should everyone. We need to stop believing in fairy tales. Success has only been local, and temporary., so far. In the long run, it really does remain to be seen what was more successful than something else.

Locking down for example also has its side effects and those will only show up in the long run, we don't have that data yet. In five years time we might draw a different conclusion on what consitutes 'success'.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 26, 2020)

This is getting a bit circular. Does someone have a picture of a cat in a medical smock to lighten the mood?


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## Vayra86 (Oct 26, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> This is getting a bit circular. Does someone have a picture of a cat in a medical smock to lighten the mood?



Of course and you're right, I think we've managed to get our ideas across.

meow





@lexluthermiester  that poor cat. At least I left the animal cruelty out of it


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## EarthDog (Oct 26, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> In lex's defense... what I'm getting out of it is that he acknowledges (correctly, IMO) that you can't stop this thing no matter what you do.


That's a point..........nobody contended. Can we turn the kicker around to face the right goal? 

I want to interpret the data right too. But it's hard when the opposing viewpoint doesn't answer the questions asked. I asked how the chart is good for the goose but not the gander? How is it bias? That hasn't remotely been answered.


the54thvoid said:


> This is getting a bit circular.


I digress...


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Tired if this MO of rarely answering direct questions.


Hmm..


EarthDog said:


> Going by most available metrics, few would call the US response a success or positive.


Then by the same metric, no one in the world can claim any level of success.


Vayra86 said:


> In lex's defense... what I'm getting out of it is that he acknowledges (correctly, IMO) that you can't stop this thing no matter what you do. That all the different measures have 'some' impact but it won't stop the general tide of growth, and that for him is 'business as usual' when it comes to the virus. A log scale showing growth is 'expected'. And I agree on that part, really, as should everyone. We need to stop believing in fairy tales. Success has only been local, and temporary., so far. In the long run, it really does remain to be seen what was more successful than something else.
> 
> Locking down for example also has its side effects and those will only show up in the long run, we don't have that data yet. In five years time we might draw a different conclusion on what constitutes 'success'.


Exactly. 


the54thvoid said:


> This is getting a bit circular. Does someone have a picture of a cat in a medical smock to lighten the mood?


Wish granted!


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## EarthDog (Oct 26, 2020)

Still doesn't answer the bias question...posts pics of cats instead? Yikes. 



lexluthermiester said:


> Then by the same metric, no one in the world can claim any level of success.


You're kidding, right? Wow.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Still doesn't answer the bias question...posts pics of cats instead? Yikes.
> 
> You're kidding, right? Wow.


No, not kidding. I'm not answering your challenge for two main reasons, the first is that I don't wish to spend the next 3 hours typing out a dissertation that(second) you will likely do nothing but nitpick it apart for the sake of argument alone, which is what I have come to expect from you. You can either work out the logic and reason of what I said on your own or you can continue on your merry... Your choice. Nothing personal of course, just not an effort I'm willing to make.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Success or failure is dependent on the result, not whodunit/blame. Going by most available metrics, few would call the US response a success or positive. In fact, only the current government is saying such a thing (most of them, there is some dissention, more as time goes on).
> 
> That's the problem, isn't it.. Look at what is going on here...
> 
> In the case of this thread someone is telling us that the data is good for their chart, but charts based on the same data isn't. If that isn't putting your head in the sand, I don't know what is.



Can we say with certainty that we have a complete view on the results of current measures then? Are the actual effectiveness ratings of masks, distancing, and lockdowns measured, and are they measured correctly and honestly? Doubtful. We look at big numbers and we get trends out of it, at the very best. Some trends are very visible (such as post-lockdown R value decline and how that data trails measures by several weeks)

The only questionable thing about what he said in my view is the acknowledgment that it needs run its course and that somehow current measures still have some sort of effect. Those are countering one another really. If the measures are effective... why not use them, and if they make a dent, why isn't that success in our 'current' idea of what that should be?

Anyway. Circles, cat pictures... yep. I'm past worrying about how other people's brains work  You can't ever win that.


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## EarthDog (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> No, not kidding. I'm not answering your challenge for two main reasons, the first is that I don't wish to spend the next 3 hours typing out a dissertation that(second) you will likely do nothing but nitpick it apart for the sake of argument alone, which is what I have come to expect from you. You can either work out the logic and reason of what I said on your own or you can continue on your merry... Your choice. Nothing personal of course, just not an effort I'm willing to make.


The turn of this to being personal is disappointing. While I understand this isn't the 'discussion' thread (and will leave it at this, staff), I can't do anything but SMFH at the lack of an explanation... with the reason not to even worse.

I'm not looking at how a brain works, just if someone says, "no that chart is hooey, this one is the real deal"... they should be able to and WILLING to support the assertion. Here it's just some words without merit... and all because he's afraid to have a discussion (calls it nitpicking). Another disappointment.



Vayra86 said:


> The only questionable thing about what he said in my view is the acknowledgment that it needs run its course and that somehow current measures still have some sort of effect. Those are countering one another really. If the measures are effective... why not use them, and if they make a dent, why isn't that success in our 'current' idea of what that should be?


This was explained already in one of my posts.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> The turn of this to being personal is disappointing.


See PM.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Nor is this a competition. There is no success or failure in this pandemic, only the results and information about survival as well how the virus is spreading.








This isn't a "competition", but we can see from our states which policies are working, and which ones aren't. This is the graph that kicked off the current discussion, I'm sure you've seen it.

Some states, like VT / Vermont never had a wave to begin with, but their 90% mask usage is clearly protecting them. (IE: VT doesn't have any "herd immunity" at all, they've pretty much never been hit by the virus). So keep that in mind if you're arguing for herd immunity or something: we're no where close to that yet.



Vayra86 said:


> Locking down for example also has its side effects and those will only show up in the long run, we don't have that data yet. In five years time we might draw a different conclusion on what consitutes 'success'.



We will absolutely have a different viewpoint come 5 years from now. But why should we ignore the current evidence that we've spent the last year collecting? At this point, we seem to have extremely solid evidence for what is, and isn't working, with regards to mask policy and lockdown policies. The USA's 50-states provide 50 different data points on mask usage, local laws, and more.





What we know from this latest spike in North Dakota / South Dakota is that the virus does *NOT* care about the urban/rural divide, and is perfectly willing to replicate itself exponentially even in the midwest.

-----

I hate the USA's spotty one-state-at-a-time approach to this subject. But... at least there's something we can learn from it. Ideally, our states would be learning from each other and adopting similar policies, working together to keep the numbers down. But instead, our states are all learning about this event one-at-a-time. Nonetheless, we can look at the information in aggregate, keep in mind local mask policies, and then make pretty clear conclusions about how policies affect the growth of the virus at this point.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

@dragontamer5788
The data in those graphs has shown us that the spikes are not universal from state to state. When we get into more fine grained details of city by city, that data becomes even more interesting as no real pattern emerges. It would not surprise me at all if there was an unknown factor yet to be discovered.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> @dragontamer5788
> The data in those graphs has shown us that the spikes are not universal from state to state. When we get into more fine grained details of city by city, that data becomes even more interesting as no real pattern emerges. It would not surprise me at all if there was an unknown factor yet to be discovered.



Of course its not uniform! Geography plays a huge role in the first waves. When the virus was only in New York City back in February / March, the main locations of concern were the states connected to New York: Maryland, Florida, etc. etc.

But now the spike is uniformly across the states with less than 85% mask usage. Alaska and North Dakota don't really have any physical connections at all, aside from shoddy mask policies.

-------

We in Maryland *never* eradicated the virus. Our %Positive was 3% to 4% for the past several months. What we've learned to do was how to live our lives without having the virus take over the state entirely. Now I'm very concerned about the winter (because of the "winter spread" theory, which *seems* to be confirmed with this latest 3rd wave, being higher and spikier than before... at least in other states). We'll see if our Mask policies are enough, but Maryland is currently open. We can move to lockdown if things get bad.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> @dragontamer5788
> The data in those graphs has shown us that the spikes are not universal from state to state. When we get into more fine grained details of city by city, that data becomes even more interesting as no real pattern emerges. It would not surprise me at all if there was an unknown factor yet to be discovered.



Unknown factors, and much more so, how we should weigh each individual one. Both on how it grows so quickly in certain places and how the measures stack up. Its definitely a stacking up, and I'm not going to deny that masks do _something_. I've seen some impact of them in the numbers too. But whether that impact is meaningful, and whether it is a useful measure in the long run or overall remains open for debate.

In the end those factors determine how we should organize society. I still don't believe long term mask usage (as it looks now, several years ongoing) is going to help us. And even still if I look around... of the few dozen people I see its a lucky streak if five of them wear and use masks correctly.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Unknown factors, and much more so, how we should weigh each individual one. Both on how it grows so quickly in certain places and how the measures stack up. Its definitely a stacking up, and I'm not going to deny that masks do _something_. I've seen some impact of them in the numbers too. But whether that impact is meaningful, and whether it is a useful measure in the long run or overall remains open for debate.
> 
> In the end those factors determine how we should organize society. I still don't believe long term mask usage (as it looks now, several years ongoing) is going to help us.



Even if you disagree with Mask policies, the fact that South Dakota refuses to lockdown is part of their failure in policy.









						South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem says lockdowns are 'useless' as state's COVID-19 cases soar
					

South Dakota's governor is doubling down on her controversial stance against state-wide lockdown measures even as the local positivity rate continues to soar.




					abcnews.go.com
				




I don't like pulling in American-centric issues into this international thread: but around here, the lack of masks is equivalent to "not locking down". Its not like your country where people can keep the concept separate, the two issues are conflated in the USA. South Dakota should have locked down weeks ago. But even today, it seems like they refuse to give that a try.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Of course its not uniform! Geography plays a huge role in the first waves.


But does it? In a world where air and automobile travel is so easy, geography may not make much of a difference.


dragontamer5788 said:


> the fact that South Dakota refuses to lockdown is part of their failure in policy.


Is it a failure? South Dakota's numbers, by the graph you showed above, are not all that bad. They're not even in the top fifteen, by percentages. They are on the bottom 5 of states for mask usage and yet do not top the charts for infections. So are lock downs and mask requirements actually working as intended?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Is it a failure? South Dakota's numbers, by the graph you showed above, are not all that bad. They're not even in the top fifteen, by percentages. They are on the bottom 5 of states for mask usage and yet do not top the charts for infections. So are lock downs and mask requirements actually working as intended?







South Dakota is #2 infection rate per capita. South Dakota has a population of 884,659, smaller than many cities.






						American Hospital Directory - Individual Hospital Statistics for South Dakota
					

The American Hospital Directory provides operational data, financial information, utilization statistics and other benchmarks for acute care hospitals.




					www.ahd.com
				




And they have something like 2000 hospital beds. Not ICU beds, just... normal hospital beds. With a very tiny medical system, and very small population, the level of infections they're getting is definitely worrisome.

---------

With the population of a midsized city, South Dakota had 1063 new cases on Sunday alone, and seems to be consistently hitting 1000+ infections/day.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> South Dakota is #2 infection rate per capita. South Dakota has a population of 884,659, smaller than many cities.


But not by percentage. Look at the percentages shown just below each state's name. The total numbers need context and those percentage numbers define that. Based on those numbers South Dakota is not in the top fifteen. Per capita numbers are only meaningful when the percentage of population is factored in. That's why the percentage numbers are shown. When you rearrange the order of the states by the percentages, the picture changes dramatically.


dragontamer5788 said:


> And they have something like 2000 hospital beds. Not ICU beds, just... normal hospital beds. With a very tiny medical system, and very small population, the level of infections they're getting is definitely worrisome.


Now that could be a good point if all the cases confirmed require hospitalization, but most do not. So worrying about that point might be premature.


----------



## EarthDog (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> But not by percentage. Look at the percentages shown just below each state's name.


The percentage is the growth for that state. It uses that states values so each will be different and is only good when looking at the state itself. dragontamer said infection rate per capita. You seem to be shooting at a different target than you responded to(?).


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> The percentage is the growth for that state. It uses that states values so each will be different and is only good when looking at the state itself. dragontamer said infection rate per capita. You seem to be shooting at a different target than you responded to(?).


Then, as usual, it seems we're both looking at the same object and seeing two different things.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Look at the percentages shown just below each state's name.



That's the 2nd derivative, the change-in-infection rate. The graph itself graphs the 1st derivative: the number of additional infections per day divided by the population.

The 2nd derivative is noisier, and I'm not exactly sure... what the 2nd derivative is supposed to indicate to you? Could you elaborate on why you would rather look at the 2nd derivative instead of the 1st derivative?

I think the 2nd derivative might be useful to see if any policy changes in the past days (or weeks) are helping the situation. But aside from that, we've got +1000 cases/day in South Dakota, growing at +17% / day over day EDIT: Week-over-week . That's... pretty bad by any measurement.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> That's the 2nd derivative, the change-in-infection rate.
> 
> The graph itself graphs the 1st derivative: the number of additional infections per day divided by the population.


Got a link to the originating article?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Got a link to the originating article?





			https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_pandemic-guide-box
		


I usually assume WashPo articles are paywalled (I have a subscription). Let me know if you can't see the article...

-------

The description of the graphs is: "7-day rolling average of daily new reported cases per 100,000 residents". The %Change you're focusing on is the "%rise in new cases in past week". Alternatively, we know that South Dakota is ~1000 cases/day on a population of 850,000 or so, or 0.112% of its population got infected with COVID19 on Sunday alone. WashPo averages it out over the past week, so WashPo is only reporting 0.098% (or 98 cases per 100,000).

North Dakota and South Dakota are the only ones with numbers anywhere near this bad. And I'm sure the Europeans are looking at those absurd numbers and going WTF, because South Dakota is giving European-like numbers on a faction of the population. (That's a population of 884,659... or 884.659 for you weird Europeans).


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## the54thvoid (Oct 26, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> (That's a population of 884,659... or 884.659 for you weird Europeans).



Probably why we're leaving the EU. We don't use the 'dot'. 1,000 is one thousand. 1.000 is one to three decimal places. 

Anyway, those numbers for a place as sparsely populated as mentioned are pretty bad. I'd imagine it's concentrated in one or two cities? I mean, NYC was the crucible of infection early on but it's loaded with people per square mile. I can't think of any airborne, or effusively transmitted bloodborne viruses that dont love a people party.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Now that could be a good point if all the cases confirmed require hospitalization, but most do not. So worrying about that point might be premature.



Note: South Dakota is #1 in hospitalizations rate in the country.

EDIT: Its not "hospitalization rate", but raw number of hospitalizations.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_pandemic-guide-box
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah, it's paywalled. Based on the way the numbers are presented in that picture, it would seem(to me at least) to correlate a way different from the one you described. Let us be clear, no insult is intended to you personally.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 26, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Anyway, those numbers for a place as sparsely populated as mentioned are pretty bad. I'd imagine it's concentrated in one or two cities? I mean, NYC was the crucible of infection early on but it's loaded with people per square mile. I can't think of any airborne, or effusively transmitted bloodborne viruses that dont love a people party.



If it were in one city, that'd be great. What's so bad about this "3rd wave" in the USA is that its a "rural surge", evenly distributed across the land.





The big challenge for this 3rd wave is: how do we deal with a large increase across the country, where there's no clear "central" spot to lockdown?

EDIT: For those unfamiliar with South Dakota:


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Note: South Dakota is #1 in hospitalization rate in the country.
> 
> View attachment 173415


I question that conclusion for the following reason, SD has 850,000 people total, so 42 per 100k is not a big total number(357). My county alone has more hospitalized than that, but then again we have a large populace comparatively. This is where interpretation of declared numbers might fail. If you look more closely at that image, the other numbers show a %in change as well as ICU beds in use. This data must factor into the total picture. All things considered, SD still doesn't look all that bad.


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## Tomgang (Oct 26, 2020)

Denmark is as so many other countries seing increasingly higher numbers of infected. 

Friday the number whas 689 and today it's 1056 infected confirmed. But bear in mind Friday only around 44000 whas tested while the latest numbers today is above 59000 people tested. So off cause with more tests, we will se more comfirmed cases. 

Danish government has put out new regulations that from today is guidelines. 
They are as follows:
No more that 10 people can be together private as well as social places. 
All now have to wear mask in supermarket and other public places with many people. 
Alcohol is now not legal to sell past 10 PM
Also bars and restaurants and likewise places has to close 10 PM as well. 

With new regulations on those all ready made in September. Danish government hope we can get cases down again. But we first know in 10 to 14 days as regulation needs time to see an effect of it. I don't think this is enough, I mean we are now in the dark and colder times so virus has better options to spread as people now seeking indoors and warm amd good weather is no help either anymore. I hope I am wrong about these regulations are enough, but I certainly is concerned.

The last thing we need is a new lock down. Cause then goodbye job for the second time do to covid-19.


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## harm9963 (Oct 26, 2020)

Texas go's as Harris County go's ,  Hospital, Schools, Restaurant ,Hotels  what they have in common , people cooking and serving and cleaning , low paying jobs ,need to work two jobs or more , board with   4 or 5 others to pay rent .
When María Sarat saw her brother, she wept, and, shaking, embraced him. He was so pale. The four men with whom he shared a westside apartment were paralyzed, fearful of authorities, of deportation. But she called 911.








						COVID is hitting Houston Hispanics hard — and it's getting worse
					

Roughly a third of Hispanics being tested for the virus in Harris County are receiving a...




					www.houstonchronicle.com


----------



## Ahhzz (Oct 26, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Texas go's as Harris County go's ,  Hospital, Schools, Restaurant ,Hotels  what they have in common , people cooking and serving and cleaning , low paying jobs ,need to work two jobs or more , board with   4 or 5 others to pay rent .
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yup. Typically over here, the Hispanic population is very tight-knit with multiple family members living in the same house to save money, and their financial status doesn't allow them to run to the hospital/health center for a test or care every time one of them is ill. I worked closely with an outreach program in our area for tech support, and those ladies (and a couple of guys) worked overtime to try to get their patients in for serious things like mammograms and cancer care. Getting them to take time off for something like Covid was not something they easily manage at all.... Community is hit pretty hard.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 26, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Yup. Typically over here, the Hispanic population is very tight-knit with multiple family members living in the same house to save money, and their financial status doesn't allow them to run to the hospital/health center for a test or care every time one of them is ill. I worked closely with an outreach program in our area for tech support, and those ladies (and a couple of guys) worked overtime to try to get their patients in for serious things like mammograms and cancer care. Getting them to take time off for something like Covid was not something they easily manage at all.... Community is hit pretty hard.


Our community is having a similar experience unfortunately. There are efforts to help where-ever possible. The one positive thing to come from Covid19 is that our community has come together like never before. The stigma's of shame for asking for and receiving help have gone away. Strange times to say the least.


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## harm9963 (Oct 27, 2020)

As i predicted !








						Houston has 'plan in place' to avoid massive spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations
					

Multiple cities in Texas are seeing a spike in the number of COVID-19 cases, but Houston leaders are hoping we can turn that around.




					abc13.com


----------



## harm9963 (Oct 28, 2020)

When you turn a blind eye, this is what you get!


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 28, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> When you turn a blind eye, this is what you get!View attachment 173581


Looking at that graph, it seems there was a spike for a day or two and then things dropped back down. Wondering what that is about... In comparison to other states Texas seems to be doing alright.


When we look at the nation as a whole, we're about the same place we were in July.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 28, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Our community is having a similar experience unfortunately. There are efforts to help where-ever possible. The one positive thing to come from Covid19 is that our community has come together like never before. The stigma's of shame for asking for and receiving help have gone away. Strange times to say the least.



Let's hope this also inspires a more social vibe in the country, the world, at large. In the Netherlands it appears this wave of altruism has already passed, now we're back to being grumpy and selfish again, and closing our eyes for obvious issues in our society's organization.

But all is not lost, that second wave will bring it back again I'm not worried. But people are already drifting off into extremes, as well, as they lose patience.

Going to be interesting to see the actual lessons learned at the end of the day.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 28, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> When we look at the nation as a whole, we're about the same place we were in July.



By July, numbers were going sideways, not up. The 2nd derivative was flat, to declining, indicating that the end of the surge was near.

Today, numbers continue to go up across the country.






That's +Growth (2nd derivative) on 48/50 states (only Kansas is inflected down right now, Mississippi is 0% growth in case/day, or neutral growth). Cases/day are accelerating across the USA. This is literally the worst its ever been in the country, no joke, and its projected to keep getting worse.

It can't get better until we bring down the 2nd derivative to a negative value.

------

Another point: the July surge was in just a few states (Florida, Texas, Arizona): we could move Navy Hospital ships to temporarily help out the afflicted areas. This surge today is across the USA, and largely against landlocked states (no hospital ships from the Navy available for North Dakota). The logistics of this latest surge are going to be more complicated.


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## harm9963 (Oct 28, 2020)

'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'" 
A Tale of Two States   ,  one is Texas  ,the other is Harris County  ,as Houstonians refer to.



Harris county is the 3rd largest in the USA








						New census data: Harris County is the third largest county in the US, but how does its growth compare to other large Texas counties?
					

Several Texas counties are seeing a bump in their resident tally.




					www.click2houston.com
				



.
Houston is the 4th Largest city in the USA


			Facts and Figures
		

.


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## harm9963 (Oct 30, 2020)

That time of the the year.








						El Paso County orders 2-week shutdown due to COVID-19 spike
					

The county judge said hospitals are at capacity, and if they don't respond, they'll see "unprecedented levels of deaths."




					abc13.com


----------



## scowie (Oct 30, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Marked LQ post (not deleted). The quoted article doesn't dicuss respiratory viral transmission - which doesn't help this debate at all. I may as well suggest nurses are prone to covid by being nurses, as opposed to the fact they are in contact with the virus. The site also has a claimed aim of attempting to consistently prove a negative hypothesis which means it is prone to err on a false assumption even where evidence tallies against the negative hypothesis. In other words, its a vehicle for one mans ego. Notably it has a conspiracy leaning agenda.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well, this article discusses research into a supposedly highly infectious and deadly respiratory viral infection, i.e. "Spanish Flu": https://moscow.sci-hub.se/4021/da48b390a33f0ef54f59d6974a4104f6/rosenau1919.pdf

...which suggests it was not very infectious at all.  I see a lot of posting of statistics here along with implications that correlation implies causation.  I am more interested in what rigorous scientific experiments show.  Has any experiment shown "covid" symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?  Have any rigorous experiments shown *any* disease symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?

Btw, if an article, like the one I previously linked to, is fully referenced, it shouldn't matter what website the article has been posted on.  All the references can be looked up and you will find those references are not hosted on a "conspiracy" website.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 30, 2020)

scowie said:


> Has any experiment shown "covid" symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?



I hate to sound like a broken record but...





There have been 50 different states, with 50 different mask regulations. That's about as "real world experiment" as you can get.

Masks do NOT stop the virus on its own. But masks absolutely slow down its spread. Your skepticism may have been warranted months ago when this virus was new, but there's enough evidence now to make a conclusion.


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## lexluthermiester (Oct 30, 2020)

scowie said:


> Has any experiment shown "covid" symptoms to be transmissible via respiration? Have any rigorous experiments shown *any* disease symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?


Yes and yes. No, I'm not going to cite, go look at the CDC website for that data. However, this thread is for discussing the tracking and propagation of COVID19, not the general discussion of such. There is another thread for such discussions.


			https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565
		

Please take your discussion points over there.


----------



## the54thvoid (Oct 30, 2020)

scowie said:


> Well, this article discusses research into a supposedly highly infectious and deadly respiratory viral infection, i.e. "Spanish Flu": https://moscow.sci-hub.se/4021/da48b390a33f0ef54f59d6974a4104f6/rosenau1919.pdf
> 
> ...which suggests it was not very infectious at all.  I see a lot of posting of statistics here along with implications that correlation implies causation.  I am more interested in what rigorous scientific experiments show.  Has any experiment shown "covid" symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?  Have any rigorous experiments shown *any* disease symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?
> 
> Btw, if an article, like the one I previously linked to, is fully referenced, it shouldn't matter what website the article has been posted on.  All the references can be looked up and you will find those references are not on a "conspiracy" website.



You're referencing a *100-year-old article* on diseases to validate your point? Even when the author of said article says:



> I think we must be very careful not to draw any positive conclusions from negative results of this kind.



You can visit the other forum to discuss if you wish. But you're reply banned from here for science trolling.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 30, 2020)

46.3% of COVID19 tests are positive in South Dakota.

I think its safe to say that they're undercounting by a severe margin there. Things are far, far worse than what we're seeing.

Data from: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview


----------



## claes (Oct 30, 2020)

I mean, those forum members here who suggest that anywhere in the US is doing good must have their head under a rock.

The US just set a daily record for new cases at 92,000, and every state’s infection rate is steady or increasing. It’s going to be a long winter.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 30, 2020)

claes said:


> I mean, those forum members here who suggest that anywhere in the US is doing good must have their head under a rock.


Or we're looking at things from a different perspective. If you're going to throw out directed, veiled, passive aggressive insults, try a bit harder to be more subtle or just don't bother.


----------



## the54thvoid (Oct 30, 2020)

I'm going to bed now. Don't want to wake up more acrimony.


----------



## claes (Oct 31, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Or we're looking at things from a different perspective. If you're going to throw out directed, veiled, passive aggressive insults, try a bit harder to be more subtle or just don't bother.


Since when have I ever been subtle lol? I've @'d you a dozen times with no response; this time you're not alone, so I was more vague to try to encapsulate the broad set of views from different users. Don't fret -- you're surely amongst them!

Anyway, your reply is nice and personal and all, but I'll wage you a case toll of 80,000 new cases last Friday (a new record) and 90,0000 new cases yesterday (another new record) and simply say "the US is not handling the coronavirus well." If you'd like to disagree, feel free (but please don't call me a snowflake for taking internet arguments personally omg that'd be devastating)!


the54thvoid said:


> I'm going to bed now. Don't want to wake up more acrimony.


I'm just drinking cheap whiskey and waiting on a pizza before I watch a movie and call it a night. Much love to lex and others who disagree with me -- I'm enough of a humanist to say that I wish you all the best of health and prosperity, even in our differences


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 31, 2020)

claes said:


> and simply say "the US is not handling the coronavirus well."


The only nation not being hit by this next wave is Taiwan and that won't keep. Sooner or later they will have to face this virus. It is only a matter of time, not a matter of if.

So the perspective of who is handling it well is a little subjective.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 31, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> The only nation not being hit by this next wave is Taiwan and that won't keep. Sooner or later they will have to face this virus. It is only a matter of time, not a matter of if.
> 
> So the perspective of who is handling it well is a little subjective.











						Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)
					

Country-by-country data and research on the pandemic. Updated daily.




					ourworldindata.org
				




Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan all have this under control. India is inflected down: they're getting better right now despite a rise a few months ago.

Japan only had 770 cases yesterday on a population of 126 Million. India is clearly trending downwards, and the USA was always having far more COVID19 cases than India. Israel had a big spike, but they're clearly recovering now.

At this point, I think I can call the east-asian nations who had experience with SARS (aka: a Coronavirus) as doing the best job. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, etc. etc. They had experience with a pandemic in the early 00s and their population clearly knows what to do to keep it under control. They were some of the first nations to adopt widespread mask policies, and even today they  wear masks despite having relatively low numbers of COVID19.

--------------

Within the USA, we don't have to look at other countries anymore. Other countries have different culture, language, and religious barriers. We can focus on the USA and different states for better statistics for what our policy decisions would entail. There are also minor differences in how different countries count cases and/or deaths.

If we do look at other countries, it needs to be detailed. Knowing when they locked down (or not), what %Positive (or other metrics) that they're using. Their overall mask usage numbers, all that stuff. Things that are kinda hard to keep track of unless we live there. Otherwise, I think its just easiest to focus on our own country.


----------



## Tatty_One (Oct 31, 2020)

England going into a 4 week lockdown from next Thursday, stay at home policy except for essential shopping, medical and outdoor exercise.  Schools, Colleges and Universities will remain open but all hospitality, non essential retail and leisure to close, work from home but if you cannot then you can still go to work plus try to avoid where possible the use of public transport.


----------



## Vayra86 (Oct 31, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> The only nation not being hit by this next wave is Taiwan and that won't keep. Sooner or later they will have to face this virus. It is only a matter of time, not a matter of if.
> 
> So the perspective of who is handling it well is a little subjective.



Sorry lex but I have to say, you're off the mark here. Its definitely a question of if and not when, and there are mulitple live case studies/countries for you to indulge yourself in on that subject. Give it a shot sometime, it might broaden your view. The fact that the US so impossibly far away from any semblance of a 'track trace and eliminate' scenario with this virus does not change the outlook for many other countries who do have a much stronger grip on it. Its a matter of perspective - like you say.

For us, in the Netherlands right now the immediate outlook is access to quicker tests to get controlled reopening going again. That's a step up from the way we tried to reopen the last wave. We're getting better. Hospitalizations go down even when infection rates go up. Part of all this is logical of course, but again - its progress. The live view on the R number is another meaningful difference between countries. How well is their view on the actual situation, and how timely do they respond - that is what makes the difference every time. What we do over here is constant recalibration - no semblance of a clear cut way to handle it... could definitely be better. Germany, our immediate neighbour is doing exactly that - and they've got far better numbers than we do. Better compliance among the population as well. Its all connected.


----------



## Tomgang (Oct 31, 2020)

It´s a mixed bag how this virus spead in different countries also in europe we are all from doing pretty good to a lock down. Germany, poland, italy, Belgium and latest UK. Is among those who are in a lock down or considering it.

Denmark where i am from. We are not doing to good, but neither to bad, yet that is. Danish goverment just announced a new warning system for Covid-19. There 5 levels. Level 1 is the lowest and level 5 is pretty much a lock down. Right now we are at level 3. New restrictions whas put in to play monday this week as the two weeks before that, we saw a rapid increase in infected people.

This week however. Infected has been high, but stable. We have howered around 1000 to 1200 infected per day. But as said, it has been a stable number, so we havent seen rapid increase in infected people. With that i hope the restrictions has been implemented in right time. So what we hopefully seing now, is a second wave right at is peak now and then going slowly down. But it is yet to early to say if that is the case. It can still go the wrong way as well.

I surely hope second wave has peaked in Denmark. But seing what happens in other countries, second wave can very fast spead again. So i can only wish and hope we can prevent a lock down this round.

As a last thing. Normaly i will post a song in a thread like this. But this one from scooter tells pretty much what i and many other think of 2020. FCK 2020. Take a listen, you might not like the style of music. But it fits 2020 pretty good.


----------



## the54thvoid (Oct 31, 2020)

Scooter. Remember: it's nice to be important, but it's more important to be nice.


----------



## harm9963 (Oct 31, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> England going into a 4 week lockdown from next Thursday, stay at home policy except for essential shopping, medical and outdoor exercise.  Schools, Colleges and Universities will remain open but all hospitality, non essential retail and leisure to close, work from home but if you cannot then you can still go to work plus try to avoid where possible the use of public transport.


----------



## harm9963 (Oct 31, 2020)

Texas goes as Harris county goes[ THIRD largest county in the USA ! with Houston the 4th largest city in the USA !


----------



## Tatty_One (Oct 31, 2020)

They got their math wrong, it's 4 weeks, starts Thursday 5th Nov through to 2nd December


----------



## HTC (Oct 31, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> England going into a 4 week lockdown *from next Thursday*, stay at home policy except for essential shopping, medical and outdoor exercise.  Schools, Colleges and Universities will remain open but all hospitality, non essential retail and leisure to close, work from home but if you cannot then you can still go to work plus try to avoid where possible the use of public transport.



Why the wait? Isn't it bad enough now?

Don't forget: it will continue to get worse for a minimum of 5 days and up to 14 days *AFTER* the lockdown starts, due to the incubation period.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 1, 2020)

HTC said:


> Why the wait? Isn't it bad enough now?
> 
> Don't forget: it will continue to get worse for a minimum of 5 days and up to 14 days *AFTER* the lockdown starts, due to the incubation period.



Businesses are allowed to close before the lockdown. Any non-essential business (ie: office complexes or whatnot) should close immediately, just based on the seriousness of the situation. Anyone who is staying open is probably for last-minute remote-work situations. Since this is the 2nd lockdown, such plans are probably already in place, but it still takes time for laptops to be distributed, VPNs to be tested, and (if necessary), laptops returned for working laptops.

---------

For restaurants / hospitality sector: its a worse conversation. You need to meet up with your employees and figure out which one gets fired. Giving time to sleep on it is useful, its a serious discussion and deserves a day or two of thought.


----------



## HTC (Nov 1, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Businesses are allowed to close before the lockdown. Any non-essential business (ie: office complexes or whatnot) should close immediately, just based on the seriousness of the situation. Anyone who is staying open is probably for last-minute remote-work situations. Since this is the 2nd lockdown, such plans are probably already in place, but it still takes time for laptops to be distributed, VPNs to be tested, and (if necessary), laptops returned for working laptops.
> 
> ---------
> 
> For restaurants / hospitality sector: its a worse conversation. You need to meet up with your employees and figure out which one gets fired. Giving time to sleep on it is useful, its a serious discussion and deserves a day or two of thought.



Everything you just said made 100% complete sense.


----------



## Tatty_One (Nov 1, 2020)

HTC said:


> Why the wait? Isn't it bad enough now?
> 
> Don't forget: it will continue to get worse for a minimum of 5 days and up to 14 days *AFTER* the lockdown starts, due to the incubation period.


Mainly because we are again offering a Furlough scheme so employers need to decide who will come into work (who can't work from home) and who will get furloughed (Government paying 80% of salary up to a maximum), so at the point of lockdown it is unlikely anyone will get fired albeit on the first lockdown which was 3 months some got fired after because there was insufficient work for them, hopefully that need not happen after a 4 week stint.  Obviously for Hospitality pretty much every worker will get furloughed.

We are again offering small/medium business support based around interest free loans, again to a maximum amount.


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## HTC (Nov 1, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:


       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 60026 active cases --- 12533 more --- 1790.4 more per day
- 81771 recovered --- 12894 more --- 1842 more per day
- 2544 fatalities --- 228 more --- 32.6 more per day
- 144341 confirmed infected --- 25655 more --- 3665 more per day

- 3361537 tests taken --- 204546 more --- 29220.9 more per day but was last updated October 29th
- 64805 under watch --- 6056 more --- 865.1 more per day
- 2122 hospitalized --- 548 more --- 78.3 more per day
- 284 in ICU --- 54 more --- 7.7 more per day

Our new infected cases rose significantly VS last week, yet again, with 36.7%: 3665 new daily cases per day. Also had a significant increase in hospitalized, with nearly 35% increase and 12.3% increase in average daily ICU, when compared to last week, but the biggest increase came with fatalities, nearly 68.9%, with the last 3 days having the highest ever daily deaths on record, thus far.


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## the54thvoid (Nov 1, 2020)

Just 'wow'.

Just shy of 100,000 cases per day.


----------



## harm9963 (Nov 1, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Just 'wow'.
> 
> Just shy of 100,000 cases per day.
> 
> View attachment 174053


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 2, 2020)

Thousands attend Halloween party in Utah County until police arrive
					

Several thousand people attended a Halloween party near Utah Lake on Saturday night, days after organizers claimed their event had been canceled.




					www.ksl.com
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1322542573186129921

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1322924280099807234
Hmm... not a good sign. Halloween is a big party in the USA, but so is Thanksgiving, and Christmas. If the USA's citizens continue to have parties this could be a problem.


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## harm9963 (Nov 5, 2020)

Texas goes  as  Harris county and Houston goes 

.


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## Tatty_One (Nov 5, 2020)

First day of 4 week lockdown in England today, I can confirm things are quiet & peaceful   yesterday saw the biggest jump since the peak of the first wave with over 25,000 new infections and sadly 492 deaths.


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## Vayra86 (Nov 5, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Thousands attend Halloween party in Utah County until police arrive
> 
> 
> Several thousand people attended a Halloween party near Utah Lake on Saturday night, days after organizers claimed their event had been canceled.
> ...



There is hope! Perhaps a blue election outcome can change the curve a little bit.... 264-214...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 5, 2020)

Maryland now above 4% positive, but we stay below 600 hospitalizations (for now).





It seems like +Cases is solidly growing at this point. We've hit over +1000 today. Its not quite as bad as August yet, but the warning signs are definitely popping up now.


----------



## Tomgang (Nov 5, 2020)

Today is a serious day in Denmark and not in a god way. Specially for a area called North Jutland. Minkfarms in Denmark has been seriously infected by Covid-19 and the worst part
is that on some farms, this virus has mutated to a degreed that danish goverment say it can maybe prevent a fully working vaccine and that can effect the entire world, if this virus spread outside Denmark. Yes this new virus variant can infect humans. We have now 12 comfirmed cases. But at least it is not more deadly or dangeous than the current virus version.

So today danish goverment has taken a very serious choise today. All mink in Denmark has to be put dow immediately and by that destroy an entire industri. That is around 14-17 millions animals. A huge task to perform. This also means 7 municipality in the north of denmark. Has been put in full lock down. This effect just under 300000 people. This is critical to get under control, cause if not. The entire country can end up in a full lockdown again. Not because the virus is directly out of control. But this mutate virus has to be stop now, else this can effect a vaccine and if it spreads outside to europe and other countries. Potentially begin a new pandemic.

As the danish goverment said. If this virus is not controlled now, North Jutland can be the next Wuhan.

BBC among others has covered this as well: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

Else the situation in Denmark is that it seems with the latest ristrictions, the virus is not stop from spreading, but at least comfirmed cases has been stable around 1000-1300 cases a day. But it also means, the virus is not controlled to a degree were we can see the virus going down in numbers. So the virus is still spreading, but not like we have seens in other countries like UK and Belgium yet. But cases are high, to high if you ask me. So a virus out of control, is still a possibility for sure.


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## Tatty_One (Nov 5, 2020)

France is the worst at the moment I think for infection rates in Europe, yesterday saw almost 55,000 new cases and deaths around 800 per day, I always look to France if only because they have a very similar population size although they don't have the density we do here, I really do hope now that this 4 week lockdown of ours will stem the flow a little because if we don't we could easily move into France's numbers which are currently more than twice our rate but I think they are about 3 weeks ahead of us with this 2nd wave, things are not looking good.


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 6, 2020)

With 609 hospitalized today and +1541 COVID19 cases, I think its safe to say that Maryland is beyond its August "2nd wave". We're now the most dangerous in COVID19 numbers since the first wave.


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## HTC (Nov 8, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 76647 active cases --- 16621 more --- 2376.4 more per day
- 99781 recovered --- 18010 more --- 2572.9 more per day
- 2896 fatalities --- 352 more --- 50.3 more per day
- 179324 confirmed infected --- 34983 more --- 4997.6 more per day

- 3642907 tests taken --- 281370 more --- 40195.7 more per day but was last updated November 5th
- 90506 under watch --- 6056 more --- 865.1 more per day
- 2522 hospitalized --- 400 more --- 57.1 more per day
- 378 in ICU --- 94 more --- 13.4 more per day

On November 4th, there were an additional 3570 cases reported that were actually from October 30th to November 3rd and weren't reported before due to "laboratory report delay in our Northern region" (mostly from one laboratory), as shown in the pic below:





This means the actual cases from November 4th were 3927, thus this day wasn't actually our "worst day ever" in daily case numbers. I still expect that 7497 number to be beaten sometime next week ... but we shall see ...

Our new infected cases rose virtually the same VS last week, with 36.6%: almost 5K new daily cases per day. Hospitalized increased less than last week but still had a significant increase, ICU had the biggest increase VS last week with 74% and fatalities had just over 54% increase VS last week. Also of note is the increase in testing, with over 35% VS last week.

Starting tomorrow, we'll be in Emergency State again, with the intention of being in place until early next year. However, and due to Portuguese Law, it will have to be continuously renewed every 15 days in order to be in place until next year. There will be 121 counties with more severe restrictions VS the rest, for now. Don't have more details on this, for now.


On a more personal note, following the 2 cases announced this Monday in the factory where i work, there were 2 more discovered Tuesday so everyone in the factory ended up being tested by Thursday (there is a significant amount of workers not working every Friday during November due to layoff): i know my result was negative but don't yet know if there were more positive cases (or inconclusive).

This happened on the week i have my birthday so i opted to cancel the "party" (same format as my sister's, described below), just in case.



HTC said:


> Last Monday was my sister's birthday and the main family got together just for the "cake and presents ceremony" (7 people in total, from 4 different households): we wore masks indoors @ all times, except when eating the cake, avoided any hugs and tried to keep some distance between us.



Even though my test came back negative there's still the possibility, however unlikely, that it was a false negative so i'll continue to self isolate like i have been doing this week, for @ least another week.


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## harm9963 (Nov 8, 2020)

Staying home!


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## Tatty_One (Nov 9, 2020)

We have little choice!


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2020)

Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine is over 90% effective.

There are three other vaccines being developed. But the Dow (Stock Market Index) went +1600 on the news. Its good news for sure.


----------



## 68Olds (Nov 9, 2020)

I'll just leave this here...








						Pfizer CEO calls Covid vaccine a 'great day for humanity' and a 'light at the end of the tunnel'
					

"I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel" on the pandemic, Pfizer's Albert Bourla told CNBC on Monday.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## EarthDog (Nov 9, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine is over 90% effective.
> 
> There are three other vaccines being developed. But the Dow (Stock Market Index) went +1600 on the news. Its good news for sure.





68Olds said:


> I'll just leave this here...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Great news! That's half the battle... now to get people to take it....


----------



## Tatty_One (Nov 9, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine is over 90% effective.
> 
> There are three other vaccines being developed. But the Dow (Stock Market Index) went +1600 on the news. Its good news for sure.


I am expecting by Xmas there will be 3 at least with 80+ effectiveness, there appears to be already some work combining 2 of them (and I think Pfizer's vaccine is one of the two) that have very different approaches in order to get a single shot 95% vaccine but that obviously is likely to come later.  Globally it was always expected to be more effective combining approaches into one solution.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Great news! That's half the battle... now to get people to take it....



The next step is mass production and delivery. Which is non-trivial but solvable:



> However there are logistical challenges, as the vaccine has to be kept in ultra-cold storage at below minus 80C.



Anyone who can store and transport liquid nitrogen (-196C) can accomplish -80C. But finding an easier to use vaccine will be necessary to get to areas with less infrastructure.

----

EDIT: Looks like 90% efficacy is only after two shots. With one shot, you're only at 80% effective immunity. Now we're at a decision point: 1-shot for everyone, or 2-shots for everyone? We can distribute the vaccine to twice as many people if we only give 1x shot. As such, 2x as many people with 80% immunity seems better for the community than 1x as many people with 90% immunity. Lets the logistics / politics argument begin!!

And of course, there's no damn way one company will make enough doses. When the other companies come out with their vaccines, we'll also have to think about how to distribute those. (If a cheaper 50% effective vaccine is made, how should that be distributed? Will people get confused? etc. etc.)


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2020)

It only took 3 days to go from 600-hospitalized to 700-hospitalized.

The trendline is clearly accelerating. I've been lax about meeting up with some family members through the Sept. lull... but I think I'll be more strict with meetups in the near future. At this rate, I'm probably going to say no to the inevitable Thanksgiving invitation, unless Maryland changes things very soon.

The governor has taken notice as the 5% positivity rate has been broken. The governor is prepping a speech for tomorrow. The %Positive rate has grown much faster than anticipated: we're clearly in the midst of a dangerous surge.

Maryland is currently "stage 3", which is nearly fully open. 75% capacity in restaurants, churches, bars. Baltimore has closed all non-food bars, so localities are beginning to take action before the Governor has done anything. Returning to stage2 or even stage1 seems like the safe thing to do, but I'll have to wait till tomorrow to see what our Governor wants to do.


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## lexluthermiester (Nov 9, 2020)

The problem with these "vaccines" is that they are not a cure. And what happens when the virus mutates?


----------



## Tatty_One (Nov 9, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> The problem with these "vaccines" is that they are not a cure. And what happens when the virus mutates?


Is it really that relevant?  If you get herd immunity and the virus then mutates the position is the same, a vaccine just lessens the risk, if just 60% take the vaccine, most of them should be OK, for those that aren't (based on the 90+% effectiveness which will improve) they are no worse off than those that don't take it, if 40% don't take the vaccine 37% (estimate based on current US death rate of around 3%) should be OK, the 3% may or may not die although immunity levels and period will fluctuate hugely, it's not a cure but it accelerates towards a cure and with less risk …… eventually.

There are plenty of vaccines out there for plenty of diseases that have over periods of 10 - 30 years pretty much eradicated some pretty nasty things (granted many of them are not viral), once more than half of humanity don't get infected over a period that's the tipping point leading eventually to an ending.  Herd immunity is a solution but even some knowledgeable supporters of it acknowledge that one of the main risks is that it too just delays the inevitable, immunity weakens, people catch it again and dependant on their age and condition they slowly move over time closer to those known vulnerability groups and at that point the risks increase.


----------



## claes (Nov 9, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> The problem with these "vaccines" is that they are not a cure. And what happens when the virus mutates?


What @Tatty_One said, and we create a new vaccine, like we do with influenza serotypes.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 9, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Is it really that relevant?


Of course. This is why the cold and flu type virii continue to affect us, they mutate and carry on. COVID is no different. It already mutated in the EU in mink farms.


Tatty_One said:


> If you get herd immunity and the virus then mutates the position is the same, a vaccine just lessens the risk, if just 60% take the vaccine, most of them should be OK, for those that aren't (based on the 90+% effectiveness which will improve) they are no worse off than those that don't take it, if 40% don't take the vaccine 37% (estimate based on current US death rate of around 3%) should be OK, the 3% may or may not die although immunity levels and period will fluctuate hugely, it's not a cure but it accelerates towards a cure and with less risk …… eventually.


Fair points all.


Tatty_One said:


> There are plenty of vaccines out there for plenty of diseases that have over periods of 10 - 30 years pretty much eradicated some pretty nasty things (granted many of them are not viral), once more than half of humanity don't get infected over a period that's the tipping point leading eventually to an ending. Herd immunity is a solution but even some knowledgeable supporters of it acknowledge that one of the main risks is that it too just delays the inevitable, immunity weakens, people catch it again and dependent on their age and condition they slowly move over time closer to those known vulnerability groups and at that point the risks increase.


Also fair points. But we need to remind ourselves that these treatments coming out are just that, immuno-treatments, not real and true vaccines.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 10, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> But we need to remind ourselves that these treatments coming out are just that, immuno-treatments, not real and true vaccines.



What does this statement even mean?









						What to Know About Coronavirus — COVID-19 Explained | Pfizer
					

What is Coronavirus? Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that may cause respiratory illnesses in humans ranging from common colds to more severe conditions such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).1




					www.pfizer.com
				




The Pfizer's vaccine under discussion is an mRNA vaccine that stimulates true immunity. Earlier in this thread, we were worried that it'd come in at too low of an efficacy, but now we know that its looking like ~90% efficiency after two shots (and ~80% efficiency with one shot). I think people may be bearish on the *duration* of immunity (Flu vaccines only offer 6-months of immunity). But COVID19 seems like it already offers 7+ months of immunity, so maybe its long lasting. (We'll find out as studies continue. The virus hasn't been with us very long yet...)

IIRC: its still not perfect. It looks like it takes 28-days before the vaccine takes effect. (So you could get vaccinated, but then infected 2-week later, before the immunity kicks in). But hot damn, 90% efficacy is really, *really* good news. You have to go far off into the pessimism-side before you can really come up with any negativity from today's announcement.

Especially this:



> Based on current projections we expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021.


----------



## Tatty_One (Nov 10, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Also fair points. *But we need to remind ourselves that these treatments coming out are just that, immuno-treatments, not real and true vaccines.*


What is important, whichever opinion you have is that we need to take a path, over time that gets us to the point where at least half of the population have either an immunity and/or will not transmit the virus, at that point according to most experts, the virus starts to be eradicated globally, herd immunity might be a solution to that but there remains insufficient evidence to support that (not the theory but in Covid-19's case the reality) and will cost lives, a vaccine, and this is just one of potentially 48 or so that we are talking about, some with different approaches where multiple vaccine's are likely to be eventually combined can also move us in that direction but with less risk, I try to see this not in the terms of route (vaccine or Herd immunity) but more in the destination (50%+ immunity)…… whatever gets me and my loved ones there the safest way works for me.

What is not known for sure yet for this 1st vaccine is, whilst the virus for most may be defeated and the carrier not get sick, can they still infect others, if they can then I would agree for this vaccine it would likely be a short term solution, unless of course everybody took it BUT, that short term solution would still save lives.


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## lexluthermiester (Nov 10, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> What does this statement even mean?


Well, it's actually really simple. How many times does a person get the smallpox, chicken pox or mumps vaccines? Once. Why? Because they are true vaccines. The flu shots they give out every year or so are not true vaccines because you need them frequently. That qualifies them as a "treatment", not a vaccine. Just because big pharma calls it such does not make it so. A true vaccine is something you only take once.



Tatty_One said:


> What is important, whichever opinion you have is that we need to take a path, over time that gets us to the point where at least half of the population have either an immunity and/or will not transmit the virus, at that point according to most experts, the virus starts to be eradicated globally, herd immunity might be a solution to that but there remains insufficient evidence to support that (not the theory but in Covid-19's case the reality) and will cost lives, a vaccine, and this is just one of potentially 48 or so that we are talking about, some with different approaches where multiple vaccine's are likely to be eventually combined can also move us in that direction but with less risk, I try to see this not in the terms of route (vaccine or Herd immunity) but more in the destination (50%+ immunity)…… whatever gets me and my loved ones there the safest way works for me.


Again, valid points all. I'm sensing that when I have said we should just take it on instead of trying(and failing) to hide from it that people think I mean we should take it full force in the face. This is not what I mean. We NEED to get on with life. Let it run it's course through the general population in a staggered formation, while we vigorously protect the ill, infirm and weak. Then when we have treatments in sufficient potency and volume we then take careful measures to expose those previously protected. Sooner or later it will hit everyone.


----------



## claes (Nov 10, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Well, it's actually really simple. How many times does a person get the smallpox, chicken pox or mumps vaccines? Once. Why? Because they are true vaccines. The flu shots they give out every year or so are not true vaccines because you need them frequently. That qualifies them as a "treatment", not a vaccine. Just because big pharma calls it such does not make it so. A true vaccine is something you only take once.


This isn’t true — we don’t need regular smallpox vaccines because there aren’t regular outbreaks. If there were, a person at risk of exposure would need to get a booster shot every three years. Even then, it’s only 95% effective, which is great in my mind, but if 90% doesn’t meet your standards for Covid then maybe you have a double-standard?




> Again, valid points all. I'm sensing that when I have said we should just take it on instead of trying(and failing) to hide from it that people think I mean we should take it full force in the face. This is not what I mean. We NEED to get on with life. Let it run it's course through the general population in a staggered formation, while we vigorously protect the ill, infirm and weak. Then when we have treatments in sufficient potency and volume we then take careful measures to expose those previously protected. Sooner or later it will hit everyone.


You make a claim, “we need to get on with life,” but don’t warrant it — what does it mean to get on with life? How do we do it? What is an acceptable loss of life? How do we protect higher-risk populations in the mean-time.

Herd immunity is not just an end goal, it’s a strategy. Everyone here agrees that it’s important that we achieve as much immunity as possible, the question is how — strategic countermeasures to manage outbreaks and limit deaths in localities as needed, or let the virus run it’s course while it kills hundreds of thousands?

You seem to be shifting to some balance between strictly stay-at-home orders and just letting the virus run free — what does that look like to you?


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 10, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> There is hope! Perhaps a blue election outcome can change the curve a little bit.... 264-214...



Unlikely, sadly, as there is no office change until January even if that theory were true.  Trump will most likely stay the course as long as he can.

Just sayin'  No politics beyond those simple facts about how the election works please.


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## R-T-B (Nov 10, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Well, it's actually really simple. How many times does a person get the smallpox, chicken pox or mumps vaccines? Once. Why? Because they are true vaccines.



This is due to the diseaeses prevelance, not anything to do with the type of vaccine they are.  Case in point:  Rabies, if you want it, must be regularly boosted (same with dogs) because that disease is still all over in nature.


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 10, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Sooner or later it will hit everyone.



There's literally a 90% effective vaccine with an expected 50-million doses (2-doses per person: so enough for 25-million people) before the end of 2020. And with over a billion doses (enough for >500 million people) coming in 2021.

And there's 3 more vaccines that are still being developed, that could speed the deployment of vaccinations / immunity, and prevent the disease. We're entering endgame already.


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## Tatty_One (Nov 10, 2020)

There is a degree of Herd Immunity support in the UK, it's a minority but has grown in numbers since we started a 2nd spike in September but their sense of "Protect the Old & Vulnerable" is to shield them, likely for a year or more and basically lock them away and whether intentional or not it comes across as "Let us do what we want, even if it means that 20% of the population has no life to pay for it".

I should add that I don't think Lex is saying that, however I would be interested how you protect them without heavily infringing on their freedom's, remembering we are not just talking about over 80's.


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## claes (Nov 10, 2020)

We should be clear — “reopeners” are not advocating for herd immunity, which is a strategy to control spread to mitigate it’s impact and build immunity in a population through stay-at-home measures, social distancing, and vaccination. They’re simply advocating to do nothing, that it’s not big deal if some people die (they’re gonna die anyway).









						Herd immunity - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




I don’t think lex is saying “do nothing,“ or that he thinks it’s okay if some populations die (he is not a eugenicist), but we should be clear about what a strategy of herd immunity is and isn’t, because there is a science to it. As lex correctly points out, we were able to manage things like measles and small pox because of herd immunity (not because of “true” vaccines with 100% efficacy, which as far as I know don’t exist for any disease). But letting the disease run its course, like others are advocating, isn’t a strategy for herd immunity, it’s a willful nihilism towards unnecessary and preventable death.

“Nations that put the entire onus on workers to reopen their economies rather than pursuing policies to defeat the virus (for example, US, Brazil, and Sweden) have the highest deaths per capita in the world. This clearly fits with a reopening narrative that is inherently eugenicist. Reopeners often claim that “only” 0.2 percent of children will die; that “only” people with pre-existing conditions like obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes will die; and that “only” the elderly will die.  Reducing Covid-19’s harm to a death count is another way of saying, “suck it up and get back to work.” “


----------



## Vayra86 (Nov 10, 2020)

claes said:


> This isn’t true — we don’t need regular smallpox vaccines because there aren’t regular outbreaks. If there were, a person at risk of exposure would need to get a booster shot every three years. Even then, it’s only 95% effective, which is great in my mind, but if 90% doesn’t meet your standards for Covid then maybe you have a double-standard?
> 
> 
> You make a claim, “we need to get on with life,” but don’t warrant it — what does it mean to get on with life? How do we do it? What is an acceptable loss of life? How do we protect higher-risk populations in the mean-time.
> ...



Intelligent lockdown. One could question the intelligence of it, but that is what we've been doing over here in the Netherlands for the most part. A bit half assed, but still. We're trying to find some sort of balance between risk and protection without turning everything to shit. That is in fact what most countries do, and its the inevitable consensus-outcome of any science board because all things are weighed and considered - if not today, then tomorrow when turning left creates a ton of noise about why we didn't turn right. Even behavioral sciences play a major role, because the way people respond and act upon measures is half as important as the measures themselves. You can look at the US for how not to do this.

The approach for the vast majority of countries is starting to look more and more alike, really. Forced by necessity from every angle. Its just so so sad, that all of it is a bit late and responsive rather than pro-active, I mean experts have been predicting much of this when the whole thing popped up. Scientific models have been correct _every step of the way_. Its remarkably similar to how we approach climate change at large: we postpone necessary action until shits really hit the fan and then we start building more fans  The outcome of that approach is that we now need an exponential amount of fans in a much shorter period of time which creates its own set of problems, scarcity of labor and materials etc. Covid is exactly the same. By responding late, we're now 6 billion plus people begging for vaccination.

Another discussion beneath the surface of all those measures that will slowly creep up the longer it all takes, is what the acceptable cost is of a human life, also in terms of restrictions on everyone else. But approaching that discussion from the opposite angle, first happily ignorant and then making up the balance of what it cost you... that's clearly going nowhere at all.


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 10, 2020)

The governor did the "obvious", and effectively rolled us back to Phase 2 (aka: 50% restaurant capacity) across the state, effective tomorrow night. Major cities and suburbs have gone further and closed down to 25% capacity in restaurants (equivalent to Phase 1).

The issue is the upcoming Thanksgiving break, its clear that whatever restrictions the Governor puts on us will last through Thanksgiving (or longer). But given this level of spiking, I think its reasonable to cancel Thanksgiving (or at a minimum: grossly scale it back. Immediate family only).


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## lexluthermiester (Nov 10, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> however I would be interested how you protect them without heavily infringing on their freedom's, remembering we are not just talking about over 80's.


Good point. We can't just lock them away. I was thinking more along the line of intensive hygiene routines, thorough personal residence cleaning and biohazard suits being worn by anyone(at risk citizens) that needs to go out into public followed by intensive clean-off staging upon return.


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## Tatty_One (Nov 11, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Good point. We can't just lock them away. I was thinking more along the line of intensive hygiene routines, thorough personal residence cleaning and biohazard suits being worn by anyone(at risk citizens) that needs to go out into public followed by intensive clean-off staging upon return.


In terms of the UK we are probably talking of around 3.5 million fall into this category, do you think that would work for the US where you may be talking more in terms of 20 - 25 million?


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## the54thvoid (Nov 11, 2020)

Damn. We handled this well. 









						Covid: UK first country in Europe to pass 50,000 deaths
					

It is the first European nation to pass the landmark, with 595 deaths recorded in the past 24 hours.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## HTC (Nov 11, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> Damn. We handled this well.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Portugal isn't much better: we beat our highest daily death toll by, 19 which now stands @ 82, and it's over twice as high as the 1st wave's highest, which was 35. If we scale today's daily deaths up to UK's population, that's roughly the equivalent of 540 deaths, which isn't far off what you're currently experiencing, and it should get far worse because the stupidly high number of cases hasn't yet translated in to hospitalizations, let along ICU and their ultimate consequences.

The REAL problem is money: to be more precise, it's the LACK of money. Does anyone thing that if countries could properly compensate EVERY single person forced to NOT work due to the pandemic, full lockdowns would already be in place for quite a while? It's because they can't that they are attempting to "be creative" with their restriction strategies ...


----------



## EarthDog (Nov 11, 2020)

Our state Governor is going on TV today to talk about our state's numbers. They are terrible all around (deaths aren't skyrocketing yet) with several hospital systems already overwhelmed and more tracking that way. I'm afraid that he'll lock things down again. Sucks, but, if people weren't such...just wore masks and didn't hold small gatherings in the first place, we wouldn't be 'forced' to do this. Tired of the few borking things for the rest over 'rights'. So selfish.


----------



## XZero450 (Nov 11, 2020)

We've been at 25% capacity(seemingly as a recommendation) for nearly a month now and our numbers keep getting worse. Large wedding parties are still going on, bars are packed at night, people will wear masks to get by a greeter and then take them off once in an establishment(that serves food or not). Our governor will likely not do anything other than plea to the public because the state senate keeps filing lawsuits/contesting his authority whilst they refuse to meet in person(if they meet at all) and expect all of us to go about business as usual.

Some of our local school districts are starting to disregard the safe metrics they put in place to have kids in school and are bringing them back anyway. Not that it matters as parents are sending positive kids to school because "They aren't that sick." Completely missing the fact that it isn't about them, or their kids, as much as it's about other kids and relatives.

More infections = greater risk of mutation nullifying vaccinations.

It's probably a very good thing that Obamacare went in when it did with the legal restrictions forcing coverage of pre-existing conditions.. I would hate to see what privatized insurers would do with long term ailments linked to this virus, especially seeing as to how my state is responding/treating the virus.


----------



## Space Lynx (Nov 11, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> There is a degree of Herd Immunity support in the UK, it's a minority but has grown in numbers since we started a 2nd spike in September but their sense of "Protect the Old & Vulnerable" is to shield them, likely for a year or more and basically lock them away and whether intentional or not it comes across as "Let us do what we want, even if it means that 20% of the population has no life to pay for it".
> 
> I should add that I don't think Lex is saying that, however I would be interested how you protect them without heavily infringing on their freedom's, remembering we are not just talking about over 80's.




I think herd immunity should only be considered when the Pfizer vaccine is readily available to anyone who wants, and since a lot if not most people don't seem to want to take it, that shouldn't take long. Those who know or think they might be vulnerable can get the vaccine, and then if the rest of society wants to go hog wild with herd immunity I say go for it. As the vulnerable are no longer vulnerable, especially if the vulnerable continue to wear masks and isolate.  The rest can go party will nilly, but to do so before the vulnerable have a chance to take the vaccine is selfish and rude imo.

You can't protect, some of them work in stores, some can't retire cause they still live paycheck to paycheck in old age, etc.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 12, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> In terms of the UK we are probably talking of around 3.5 million fall into this category, do you think that would work for the US where you may be talking more in terms of 20 - 25 million?


Good points. However, even if the costs are high, it's better and less expensive than hiding away from everything.



the54thvoid said:


> Damn. We handled this well.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You're looking at that the wrong way, making blame on yourselves for a *disease*. Yes, there are precautions that can be taken but at the end of the day it's a virus that has proven impossible to control. Blaming ourselves will only make things worse.



EarthDog said:


> Tired of the few borking things for the rest over 'rights'. So selfish.


From the perspective of some, that view seems just as selfish.



XZero450 said:


> More infections = greater risk of mutation nullifying vaccinations.


That has and will happen anyway, not really something to worry about(because we can't stop it, so why worry).


----------



## EarthDog (Nov 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> From the perspective of some, that view seems just as selfish.


Sorry, but did you say it was selfish to wear a mask? How is wearing a mask selfish? How is a mandate that is designed to help others, selfish? I mean shame on the majority for trying to help those 10s of millions who are frail against this virus. To me, that's the ANTITHESIS of being selfish!

I don't get it, honestly. How friggin hard is it to wear a mask, really?  The only difference is I'm not dramatically increasing the risk of infecting multiple people and potentially killing someone just by existing and not masking. It's that perspective that got us here today and is making things worse for tomorrow.

If the anti-maskers (and people who don't wear masks at small gatherings) and young didn't have all these get togethers, college parties, etc... we'd likely be in much better shape. Community spread is out of control. I fear now that the 'good news' about a vax came out, it's going to get even worse unless changes are made.. I expect those same anti-maskers and voluntary high-risk takers to now show even more bravado and care even less.

EDIT: No lockdowns in ohio again... but in a couple of weeks if things aren't trending, those high risk places (restaurants, bars, and gyms) will be closed.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 12, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> and didn't hold small gatherings in the first place


I was referring to this, not the masks. Should have made that more clear.


EarthDog said:


> How is a mandate that is designed to help others, selfish?


Narrow minded, ineffective and doing more harm than good.


EarthDog said:


> I mean shame on the majority for trying to help those 10s of millions who are frail against this virus. To me, that's the ANTITHESIS of being selfish!


People who are frail should be the ones taking extra special precautions. Trying to guilt trip the rest of us for a virus that is easily transmitted and became unstoppable once it had left it's point of origin is more than a bit sad.

Once again it's time to reiterate, *nothing is stopping this virus!* It is everywhere! Our only choice is to live with it, to take it on and let it run it's course. Protecting the vulnerable is what we need to focus on. Not the whole populace, just the vulnerable. Shut-downs/lock-downs *WILL NOT WORK*! For such to work, every person on the planet would need to completely isolate and we would need to kill any and all animals that catch and carry the virus. That's just not going to happen. Calling ANYONE selfish for wanting to get on with life is itself an act of selfishness, not to mention foolish ignorance.


----------



## robot zombie (Nov 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Protecting the vulnerable is what we need to focus on. Not the whole populace, just the vulnerable.


The two are arguably inseparable.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 12, 2020)

robot zombie said:


> The two are arguably inseparable.


That is open for debate.


----------



## claes (Nov 12, 2020)

Only if the debate is whether or not science is useful...


----------



## robot zombie (Nov 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That is open for debate.


Well... yes, that's what I said  But that is to say, it still remains to be seen how we would pick out every single vulnerable individual and somehow isolate them from the rest of society, which in that scenario, is assumed to be propagating the disease in a largely unhindered manner (that's how it's presented here in FL, anyway.) It would somewhat work, in theory. But we have NEVER managed that with any disease, without a vaccine. Barring that, there is no known way to simply keep the most vulnerable in any population from getting exposed. It gets extra difficult with a novel disease, because we don't necessarily have a reliable way to identify who is vulnerable. Not to mention, the most vulnerable people are as intertwined with society as everyone else. It is a logistical nightmare.

The point I'm really making is that part of protecting the vulnerable IS minimizing the spread among everyone else. It's the same approach we use with every disease we vaccinate for, only we don't yet have that accessible and effective vaccine. Not everybody can get certain vaccines, and some of those people will be extremely vulnerable. Others simply will not be successfully immunized. Everyone else gets vaccinated regardless of how low the chances are of them contracting it in the first place may be, let alone having a serious go of it... because it reduces the chances of that disease getting to the people who can't be protected otherwise exponentially. The vaccines are given to protect not only healthy people who are at lower risk, but the people who are much more vulnerable than them. Reducing the exposure risk is a large part of vaccination's MO.

And that seems like a small thing, but it is the number one thing that keeps many diseases from routinely knocking out sizeable chunks of vulnerable people who also share this world with the rest of us. Abstract that last sentence out: keeping the majority of people from getting a transmittable disease also keeps the smaller number who would otherwise die from that disease alive. Everything that we do is compensating for the lack of a vaccine - the intended effect is about the same in its nature.


----------



## EarthDog (Nov 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Narrow minded, ineffective and doing more harm than good.


That's certainly a matter of opinion. There are many reputable sources stating otherwise. But science these days tends to fall on way too many deaf ears. I'll put something up, you'll put something else up (maybe), we'll both poopoo the source...someone goes home with their ball. You know the routine. 



lexluthermiester said:


> Trying to guilt trip the rest of us for a virus that is easily transmitted and became unstoppable once it had left it's point of origin is more than a bit sad.


What's sad is this POV. This isn't a guilt trip. This is protecting our peers. Our families. Friends. It's not about guilt, it's about doing the right thing for the human race to reduce a death toll.



lexluthermiester said:


> Shut-downs/lock-downs *WILL NOT WORK*!


Must have been coincidence then...the statistics. Weird.


lexluthermiester said:


> Calling ANYONE selfish for wanting to get on with life is itself an act of selfishness, not to mention foolish ignorance.


Disagree... and you misunderstood or are putting words in my mouth. First though, we should define selfish.



> (of a person, action, or motive) lacking consideration for others; concerned chiefly with one's own personal profit or pleasure.



The act of selfishness here is not considering the majority of others which it turn does harm to a great number of people because of the virus. These people are concerned chiefly with their own liberties and personal pleasure eschewing all others. Those who are wearing masks are doing so specifically because of others, are they not? Why is this a freedom and liberty thing? If people didn't do these things like refuse to wear a mask or just don't when they sould... have small gatherings... touch too many bubbles... and hear we are...again...worse off...way worse than when we started in multiple fronts. All because of carelessness and inconsiderate people. How do you protect the vulnerable? By everyone stamping this down by other means.


lexluthermiester said:


> That is open for debate.


hence 'arguable'. 

EDIT: What zombie said way more eloquently than I care to right now. 

EDIT: Shit... MAPS thread... data... my fault.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 12, 2020)

Yeah, we should get back on topic.


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 12, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Once again it's time to reiterate, *nothing is stopping this virus!* It is everywhere! Our only choice is to live with it, to take it on and let it run it's course. Protecting the vulnerable is what we need to focus on. Not the whole populace, just the vulnerable. Shut-downs/lock-downs *WILL NOT WORK*! For such to work, every person on the planet would need to completely isolate and we would need to kill any and all animals that catch and carry the virus. That's just not going to happen. Calling ANYONE selfish for wanting to get on with life is itself an act of selfishness, not to mention foolish ignorance.



That would lead to overwhelmed hospitals having to chose who lives and dies, ala italy.  If that's the cost of freedom I'm happy to curtail it here.

Masks were never supposed to stop the virus.  They are supposed to slow it down so hospitals can cope, remember?  "Flatten the curve?"


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 12, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> EDIT: Shit... MAPS thread... data... my fault.



Oh yes...  uh, I wasn't here.  You guys did tricked me!

Here, let me fix this:

According to the maps at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org, we now have every state in the USA in a state of "uncontrolled spread"

Woo...

EDIT:  It appears Vermont just got it slightly more under control somehow.  Wow, that was quick.  Also, Lousiana is now "trending poorly" instead of uncontrolled.  I'm not sure how one "trends poorly" when they were just in a worse state minutes ago...  @rtwjunkie how's it actually going in your state?  Some clarification from a state agency that's more reliable you know of perhaps?


----------



## Vayra86 (Nov 12, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Sorry, but did you say it was selfish to wear a mask? How is wearing a mask selfish? How is a mandate that is designed to help others, selfish? I mean shame on the majority for trying to help those 10s of millions who are frail against this virus. To me, that's the ANTITHESIS of being selfish!
> 
> I don't get it, honestly. How friggin hard is it to wear a mask, really?  The only difference is I'm not dramatically increasing the risk of infecting multiple people and potentially killing someone just by existing and not masking. It's that perspective that got us here today and is making things worse for tomorrow.
> 
> ...





lexluthermiester said:


> I was referring to this, not the masks. Should have made that more clear.
> 
> Narrow minded, ineffective and doing more harm than good.
> 
> ...






robot zombie said:


> Well... yes, that's what I said  But that is to say, it still remains to be seen how we would pick out every single vulnerable individual and somehow isolate them from the rest of society, which in that scenario, is assumed to be propagating the disease in a largely unhindered manner (that's how it's presented here in FL, anyway.) It would somewhat work, in theory. But we have NEVER managed that with any disease, without a vaccine. Barring that, there is no known way to simply keep the most vulnerable in any population from getting exposed. It gets extra difficult with a novel disease, because we don't necessarily have a reliable way to identify who is vulnerable. Not to mention, the most vulnerable people are as intertwined with society as everyone else. It is a logistical nightmare.
> 
> The point I'm really making is that part of protecting the vulnerable IS minimizing the spread among everyone else. It's the same approach we use with every disease we vaccinate for, only we don't yet have that accessible and effective vaccine. Not everybody can get certain vaccines, and some of those people will be extremely vulnerable. Others simply will not be successfully immunized. Everyone else gets vaccinated regardless of how low the chances are of them contracting it in the first place may be, let alone having a serious go of it... because it reduces the chances of that disease getting to the people who can't be protected otherwise exponentially. The vaccines are given to protect not only healthy people who are at lower risk, but the people who are much more vulnerable than them. Reducing the exposure risk is a large part of vaccination's MO.
> 
> And that seems like a small thing, but it is the number one thing that keeps many diseases from routinely knocking out sizeable chunks of vulnerable people who also share this world with the rest of us. Abstract that last sentence out: keeping the majority of people from getting a transmittable disease also keeps the smaller number who would otherwise die from that disease alive. Everything that we do is compensating for the lack of a vaccine - the intended effect is about the same in its nature.



You know you're probably all right and all wrong at the same time.

There is no cure-all for this type of thing. Look at flu. We have vaccines, but we still get it. It still costs society a shitload of money every few seasons. We've learned to live with that expense, and we've reduced the measures to 'vaccinate the most vulnerable' alongside regular 'stay at home, get better' principles. We all share that principle, too. If you have the flu, anyone with common sense would ask you NOT to come to work because you might infect others, making the damage on that little scale, just as 'exponential' as Covid does now on a global scale. We also use general 'distancing' measures if you think of it. You won't be hugging everyone around you when you're all sweaty and feeling shitty.

Because that's what we're STILL looking at. 1M, 2M, 5M deaths on a world pop of our size is nothing. The vast majority of people who gets it, gets mild symptoms and moves on without issues. A smaller percentage seems to have longer lasting issues. And an even smaller percentage will get a severe impact of it, often a combination of high exposure + weak/frail/old physique.

Thing is, and that is where @lexluthermiester 's ideas end and the ones of @robot zombie and @EarthDog  begin... we have always taken measures to protect as many people as possible. The definition of 'possible' however has shifted massively since the end of WW2 in the Western world. The state would take care of you in most countries. Healthcare became a big thing, and even today it is taking up an ever bigger chunk of the gross national income year over year. We've gotten used to taking care of ALL vulnerable people - humanism and altruism has defeated evolutionary limitations. With that, the definition of 'common sense' wrt healthcare has also shifted. We say its common sense to save people. Is it, really, on a macro scale? Overpopulation is the root of all of our current issues - including Covid. Covid is merely a symptom of overpopulation - and more will follow, and have already followed and the frequency of those events is increasing _rapidly._ Check a timeline on it... its perfectly synced with our rate of population growth. In my short life I've seen MKZ, BSE, H5xx (bird's flu), SARS, MERS... the list is growing rapidly - and that's just over 34 years. Its almost a bi-yearly event now that we need to cull or kill something off.

And that is where the discussion goes wrong and we also see generational divides. Older people tend to lean towards 'take care of everyone' because they've seen the rise of better healthcare, but not its downfall and they're not living the working life anymore, for the most part - they're on the _receiving end of healthcare_. Younger people are and have shown to be willing to take care of everyone too, but 'up to some sort of limit'. This includes many middle-aged/working class people too, and more often than not _they're fueling the healthcare system_ and _not on the receiving end of it._ And when they do receive - they notice they're paying a bigger, and bigger part of their monthly salary towards healthcare. Insurance cost rises every year, alongside all those other expenses while we're trying to *build *up our lives. Studies have shown that elderly are going to - or are already - *eating up 2/3rd or 3/4th of the national healthcare bill*, depending on the average age expection per country. A big part of that is the population pyramid that's slowly turning upside down which means less hands to feed more mouths, but also the never ending technological progress and we quickly say 'if we cán do it, we should' - especially when its 'one of our own', all rationale goes out the window.

And for everyone regardless of age, we have an instinctive response to save as many as possible and procreate to survive. Our general mindset is: more/better/faster/stronger and it defines everything we do and think.

The necessary discussion that is not open enough for debate right now... is that generational divide and our general stance on the limitations of healthcare, the cost of healthcare on society and when 'enough is enough'. Yes, there is a price tag to a human life and even on every year of living it by basic standards, and yes, we're exceeding that beyond every point of reason when it comes to handling Covid.

I think its very logical people question the current modus operandi, as its becoming clearer every day we can't sustain it.


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 12, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> I think its very logical people question the current modus operandi, as its becoming clearer every day we can't sustain it.



There's that too, of course.  If only 50% of people get the vaccine like stats are pointing at, it's not going to be a silver bullet for herd immunity, either.


----------



## EarthDog (Nov 12, 2020)

...and I'll have zero sympathy for those who choose not to take it.

Anti-vaxers and Anti-maskers....


----------



## the54thvoid (Nov 12, 2020)

I know it's fun to fight but this is more for stats and maps. Can we reserve the verbal fisticuffs for the lounge thread please?


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 12, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I know it's fun to fight but this is more for stats and maps. Can we reserve the verbal fisticuffs for the lounge thread please?



So easy to get them confused sometimes, especially when others reply to you in the wrong way at the wrong place, but yes, let's course correct.


----------



## Tatty_One (Nov 12, 2020)

Well, @the54thvoid reported yesterday that the UK reached the milestone of the first country to reach 50,000 deaths in Europe, today we have another record, the UK saw it's single biggest new infection rate in the last 24 hours since the pandemic started back in February @ 33,470.


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## lexluthermiester (Nov 12, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Well, @the54thvoid reported yesterday that the UK reached the milestone of the first country to reach 50,000 deaths in Europe, today we have another record, the UK saw it's single biggest new infection rate in the last 24 hours since the pandemic started back in February @ 33,470.


Been studying the numbers and propagation projections. These surges might actually be a good sign, long term. That might sound counter intuitive, but if you think about it, it's actually a good thing. If more of the population gets exposed faster, those sectors of the population will build immunity and will be less impacted from future waves.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 13, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Been studying the numbers and propagation projections. These surges might actually be a good sign, long term. That might sound counter intuitive, but if you think about it, it's actually a good thing. If more of the population gets exposed faster, those sectors of the population will build immunity and will be less impacted from future waves.



You literally liked @the54thvoid's post, and then decided to post a non-statistical / non-map message that's trolling for a response.

-------

In any case, today's Maryland news:






Overall, the counties, and Governor, has taken steps to move us closer to a lockdown without actually locking us down. Restaurants are 50% capacity statewide, while the most populated counties are now 25% capacity for Restaurants. The church I go to is also subject to the 25% restriction (previously 75%).


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 15, 2020)

Just posting the latest WashPo graph.


----------



## HTC (Nov 15, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

      

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 88854 active cases --- 12207 more --- 1743.9 more per day
- 125066 recovered --- 25285 more --- 3612.1 more per day
- 3381 fatalities --- 485 more --- 69.3 more per day
- 217301 confirmed infected --- 37977 more --- 5425.3 more per day

- 3853501 tests taken --- 210594 more --- 35099 more per day but was last updated November 11th
- 94604 under watch --- 4098 more --- 585.4 more per day
- 2929 hospitalized --- 407 more --- 58.1 more per day
- 415 in ICU --- 37 more --- 5.3 more per day

The increase in new cases and hospitalizations isn't growing as much VS last week's increase, with the percentages being 8.56% and 1.08% respectively. OTOH, "recovered" had 40.39% increase VS last week's increase and ICU number actually increased just 39.36% of last week's increase. Unfortunately, fatalities increased 37.77% VS last week's increase.

The new cases seem to be or are close to stabilizing but it's still @ a WAY TOO HIGH number


----------



## harm9963 (Nov 19, 2020)

I said a couple of months ago, mark my word !


----------



## Vayra86 (Nov 19, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> I said a couple of months ago, mark my word !



Its so obvious... but this whole second wave was predicted as early as March 2020. Even then Oxford researchers already said we would be in and out of lockdowns and restrictions for years to come.

Our governments however prefer to act responsively the world over, instead of pro-actively. Yet, ALL the countries that had pro-active measures in place, got the lowest infection and death rates and as a result, the lowest hit on economies.

Gotta love human nature.


----------



## the54thvoid (Nov 20, 2020)

Keep discussion to stats, maps and relevant *empirical* data please. Moved a few posts by request to the lounge Covid thread.

Remember this is a science thread so speculation on policy and state/country failures is better suited to the lounge.

Thanks.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 21, 2020)

The weekend-blips are real. Last week, it dropped to +20 hospitalizations too. I'll wait until Tuesday before determining if this is slowing down, or if people are staying home for the weekend instead of going into the hospital.


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## harm9963 (Nov 22, 2020)

Not as bad , but worst than July !


----------



## HTC (Nov 22, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 83942 active cases --- 4912 less --- 701.7 fewer per day
- 172919 recovered --- 47853 more --- 6836.1 more per day
- 3897 fatalities --- 516 more --- 73.7 more per day
- 260758 confirmed infected --- 43457 more --- 6208.1 more per day

- 4067735 tests taken --- 214234 more --- 42846.8 more per day but was last updated November 16th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 81667 under watch --- 12937 less --- 1848.1 fewer per day
- 3151 hospitalized --- 222 more --- 31.7 more per day
- 491 in ICU --- 76 more --- 10.9 more per day

The difference in the map is because we're now separating by counties and, depending by the accumulated 14 day daily new cases average, with those that have the darkest color having the strictest restrictions, including curfews (see below pic). Currently, there are 191 counties with 240+ new daily cases over a 14 day period, which represent roughly 8.4M of our total 10.2M people, and there's currently a curfew from 13H00 to 5H00 both Saturday and Sunday in these counties. They will create @ lest a new "tier" with curfew during week days, supposedly for counties with over 480 new daily cases: not yet certain of the details.





There was a "change" in the way they analyze the data from the various regions and this affected active, recovered, new daily case and under watch numbers, as shown in the following pic, from Nov 16's situation report:





However, the difference wasn't reported in the "+XXXX" section in each field. For example, though the actual difference between Nov 15 and 16 in new daily cases was 8371, they only reported "+3996", as shown above.

Both active cases and under watch have fewer per day numbers BECAUSE of the data analysis method change and NOT because they actually dropped unfortunately, and the number of recovered is much higher for the same reason. However, our average daily death toll had it's highest increase ever, with over 500 fatalities in a single week, followed by another substantial increase in ICU number. Still bad but less so is the number of hospitalized, that increased a bit more than half VS last week.

According to our Government projections, we're expected to see 7K new daily cases as well as 100 daily fatalities before the numbers start to fall


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 24, 2020)

There's reason to be optimistic in the USA: it seems like the cases/day have reached an inflection point sometime in the past week, and may be slowing down. We're still averaging +170-thousand cases/day however.

Source: Washington Post (which seems to be tied to the Johns Hopkins numbers: just a 7-day rolling average applied on top of Johns Hopkins)


----------



## EarthDog (Nov 24, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> There's reason to be optimistic in the USA: it seems like the cases/day have reached an inflection point sometime in the past week, and may be slowing down. We're still averaging +170-thousand cases/day however.
> 
> Source: Washington Post (which seems to be tied to the Johns Hopkins numbers: just a 7-day rolling average applied on top of Johns Hopkins)


That image and the words don't match? Wait until the week's data comes in. It will flatten when 2/3 of the days are weekend/lower versus the other 4/5 days are much higher.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 24, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> That image and the words don't match? Wait until the week's data comes in. It will flatten when 2/3 of the days are weekend/lower versus the other 4/5 days are much higher.







You're right that the weekend is lowering the numbers. I already accounted for that. The inflection point is pretty obvious however. First, draw the slope (the 1st derivative). Then: notice that the slope before the inflection point is growing (getting worse), while the slope after the inflection point is shrinking (getting better).









						Inflection point - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




All peaks have an inflection point immediately before them... but not all inflection points have a peak afterwards (if things inflect upwards again, then things may get worse). Nonetheless, I still see the inflection point as an optimistic sign.


----------



## claes (Nov 24, 2020)

I hope so; the US recorded a daily record of airport travelers since the pandemic began, and AAA estimates about 50M will travel for thanksgiving this holiday (~1/7 Americans).

I couldn’t find a graph, but here’s some data, which isn’t helping me feel optimistic. Let’s see what happens Wednesday (the day before thanksgiving in the US) and check-in in two weeks.






						TSA checkpoint travel numbers (current year versus prior year(s)/same weekday) | Transportation Security Administration
					






					www.tsa.gov
				












						Fewer Americans Traveling This Thanksgiving amid Pandemic
					

ORLANDO, Fla. (November 12, 2020) – Thanksgiving will be on the lighter side when it comes to the typical number of travelers on the roads and at




					newsroom.aaa.com


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## moproblems99 (Nov 24, 2020)

You should all be optimistic.  Jan 20th is right around the corner by about 57 days..  If the plan hasn't been forgotten due to Alzheimer's, this will all be wrapped up in no time.


----------



## Ahhzz (Nov 24, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> You should all be optimistic.  Jan 20th is right around the corner by about 57 days..  If the plan hasn't been forgotten due to Alzheimer's, this will all be wrapped up in no time.


I'm not sure what you're referring to about Alzheimer's.... And, this really won't be "wrapped up" any time immediately. The vaccines will take an extended time to deliver, and hopefully they'll focus on critical workers first, like health care/care givers.


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 24, 2020)

claes said:


> I hope so; the US recorded a daily record of airport travelers since the pandemic began, and AAA estimates about 50M will travel for thanksgiving this holiday (~1/7 Americans).
> 
> I couldn’t find a graph, but here’s some data, which isn’t helping me feel optimistic. Let’s see what happens Wednesday (the day before thanksgiving in the US) and check-in in two weeks.
> 
> ...



Well, Thanksgiving was going to happen whether or not these numbers change. I've talked to enough of my friends and family: people have already decided if they are going to host a party, or to stay home. So that's pretty much "set in stone".

I agree with you though: Thanksgiving will almost certainly make things worse again. But from my perspective: we at least got to see an inflection downward *before* Thanksgiving. If things were still inflected upwards as we entered Thanksgiving, then things would be "even worse".

Its better to go into Thanksgiving with +170,000 infections/day rather than 200,000 infections/day. Even if we're going to be reaching 200k infections/day one way or the other.


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## HTC (Nov 24, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> I'm not sure what you're referring to about Alzheimer's.... And, this really won't be "wrapped up" any time immediately. The vaccines will take an extended time to deliver, and *hopefully they'll focus on critical workers first, like health care/care givers*.



*So much this*: the way this virus gets a "foothold" in retirement homes is via doctor / care giver when they go to there: by the time they find out they're infected, there are already multiple residents infected as well + other workers from the retirement homes.

Retirement homes are one of, if not THE main source of fatalities from this virus Worldwide.


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 24, 2020)

moproblems99 said:


> You should all be optimistic.  Jan 20th is right around the corner by about 57 days..  If the plan hasn't been forgotten due to Alzheimer's, this will all be wrapped up in no time.



Its the states that will ultimately be in charge of distribution. Maryland's draft plan (to be finished when more details come out) notes two distinct phases:

1. Priority distribution. Doctors, nurses, paramedics, Elderly, school teachers. Any "essential workers". This will almost certainly start in December, or January at the latest.

2. Everyone else, after the priority distribution is complete.

I've seen estimates like 6-9 months for the priority distribution period. It will take a long time to make the millions of vaccines (and distribute them out to even high-priority people). Since I almost certainly fall into low-priority, I'll probably get the vaccine in May or June.

Furthermore: all of these vaccines take 28-days to kick in. 21-days between the 1st and 2nd dose, and then 7-days after the 2nd dose to achieve immunity. So even if I'm vaccinated in June, I won't actually be immune until July 2021. The most reasonable, "optimistic" assumptions, seem to indicate a general-public availability in April or so.


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## claes (Nov 24, 2020)

Well, there _is_ a national plan for the US, but it’s super ambitious — we’ll see how much is actually implemented, how many states accept the help, etc; but free treatment and prevention for all Americans sounds like a pipe dream. Here’s hoping otherwise!








						The Biden Plan to Combat Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Prepare for Future Global Health Threats
					

THE BIDEN PLAN TO COMBAT CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) AND PREPARE FOR FUTURE GLOBAL HEALTH THREATS For more information on Joe’s leadership during the Coronavirus pandemic, please visit here. For more information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention regarding the coronavirus, please...




					joebiden.com
				




Apologies for OT post/wrong thread, and also for posting a campaign site as a source — couldn’t find any articles that explore the plan


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## Tatty_One (Nov 24, 2020)

The last thing I saw reported on any of the current 3 vaccines (notwithstanding final approvals) is that full immunity will not be assured until 28 days after the 2nd dose.  Our Government has already made the bold statement that the whole adult population will be vaccinated by Easter …….. lets see if they can not disappoint for a change , they have published a draft plan, which of course could change as they seem to think that approval of the Oxford vaccine will be granted by the end of the first week of December otherwise the draft plan becomes the "no plan" as they envisage vaccinations commencing sometime in the 2nd week of December (beginning 3rd week latest), the order of battle seems to be along the lines of ……..

1. Healthcare and Social care workers plus elderly care home residents.
2. 80+
3. All with chronic underlying conditions
4. 75+
5. Other essential services (police, fire etc etc)
6. 65+
etc etc

That is one seriously big logistical operation, I suppose on the brighter side, getting old has some perks for a change, if it goes to plan (unlikely), I would need to have mine by early February.


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## harm9963 (Nov 24, 2020)

Travels upheaval .


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 27, 2020)

A slight decline in hospitalizations. Note that %Positive has declined since a few days ago.

With thanksgiving gatherings happening across the country (and Maryland), I'm pretty sure things will go back up over the next week or so. But once again: seeing a slight decline "before" Thanksgiving is a better sign than seeing things get worse.

Confirmed cases are still over +2000/day. And %Positive could very well be the "Thanksgiving rush" (I know multiple friends who took a test to "protect" themselves for Thanksgiving: taking a test before gathering. I'm not sure if I approve of the strategy, but I'm happy to see people at least trying to protect themselves).


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## Tatty_One (Nov 27, 2020)

Apparently, as England enters it's last few days of a 4 week lockdown the UK's "R" rate is down to 1-, I wonder how long that will last as Xmas has opened up 5 days where 3 households can come together for festivities (but you cannot change the 3 by having different households different days)...……………………..



			UK coronavirus R-rate drops below 1 for first time in three months


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## harm9963 (Nov 27, 2020)

Summer was just a warm up


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## Ahhzz (Nov 27, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> Summer was just a warm up View attachment 177246


Yeah, I don't think anyone with any sense doubted that this would swell up on us in the colder months, at least until we start seeing widespread vaccines...


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## dragontamer5788 (Nov 28, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> Apparently, as England enters it's last few days of a 4 week lockdown the UK's "R" rate is down to 1-, I wonder how long that will last as Xmas has opened up 5 days where 3 households can come together for festivities (but you cannot change the 3 by having different households different days)...……………………..
> 
> 
> 
> UK coronavirus R-rate drops below 1 for first time in three months



Good news but bad article. 



> Government scientists have said the number across the UK is now between to 0.9 and 1.0.
> That means that currently every 10 people with Covid-19 pass the virus to one other person on average.



Ugggghhhhh... You'd think they'd have learned how R works by now.


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## HTC (Nov 29, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 80838 active cases --- 3104 less --- 443.4 fewer per day
- 209534 recovered --- 36615 more --- 5230.7 more per day
- 4427 fatalities --- 530 more --- 75.7 more per day
- 294799 confirmed infected --- 34041 more --- 4863 more per day

- 4353234 tests taken --- 285499 more --- 40785.6 more per day but was last updated November 23rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 80288 under watch --- 1379 less --- 197 fewer per day
- 3245 hospitalized --- 94 more --- 13.4 more per day
- 536 in ICU --- 45 more --- 6.4 more per day

The difference in the map is because the scale changed: the scale we used last week had 240+ as the highest but the scale quadrupled and now the highest is 960+ (both scales pictured below). We're still separating by counties and, depending by the accumulated 14 day daily new cases average, those that have the darkest color have the strictest restrictions, including curfews. Under the "new scale", we currently have 47 counties with "extremely high risk", 80 counties with "very high risk", 86 counties with "high risk" and the remaining 65 counties with "moderate risk".



 



It seems the measures we put in place are having their effects noticed, @ least as far as new daily cases are concerned, and hospitalizations / ICU also increased less VS last week. Unfortunately, and though small, the fatalities increased more VS last week. We're expected to reach 300K infected cases in the next two or three days and possibly even the grim mark 5K deaths by next Sunday, or the following day 

Both active cases and under watch have dropped again: let's hope this time is because they ACTUALLY DROPPED and not because of "data analysis method change" or some "miscommunication of results", unlike last week ...


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 3, 2020)

One week after Thanksgiving. What has happened?

1. Confirmed cases remains in the 2000 to 3000 region (its very random day-to-day)

2. %Positive has gone from 6.5% to 7.5%ish. I've theorized that a number of people last week were "depressing" %Positive by proactively seeking tests ahead of Thanksgiving.

3. Hospitalized is ~0 to +50 day, which is an improvement from last week (when we were +50 to +100). The -5 hospitalizations is a good sign overall, but we're basically at April/May levels of danger in my area.

--------

Deaths proves to be a lagging indicator once again. We've been having ~10 to 20 deaths for a long time, but now deaths are spiking to 40 to 50 deaths/day, nearly a month after hospitalizations began to rise. I don't like grabbing the death statistics and rubbing it into people's faces, but I have a fair number of friends and acquaintances who thought that this spike "would be different" and that death's wouldn't go up. Well... there we go. Deaths are now up. That's why we keep an eye on +Cases and +Hospitalizations, because deaths always follow suit.


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 4, 2020)

And just like that, +3792 cases in one day, 8% positive (the highest since April, when we didn't have enough tests).

Maryland has a population of ~6 million, if anyone wants to compare it to their own local area. At this point, I can safely call this a "Thanksgiving Bump", its about on schedule (a few days late: symptoms usually start around day 5ish. But maybe it took 3ish days for them to be worried about it, get a test, and for the test to be officially counted).

Hospitalizations continue to climb. Most hospitalizations in Maryland are not COVID-related, but we only have 10,000ish beds. Total hospital beds (including non-COVID cases) is currently around 7000ish. Hospital care isn't rationed or scarce yet, but if this surge continues, we could run out of beds in the coming weeks. There's a plan to temporarily get +10% beds, or a total of 11,000 beds, for the state by temporarily authorizing more student-nurses to take care of patients, to be enacted as we cross by the 8000-beds used mark (total-beds, including non-COVID cases).


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## Tatty_One (Dec 4, 2020)

Well, we (England only) have just come out of a 4 week lockdown this Wednesday, it was pretty bad before it so this is where we find ourselves as at today, this is for the whole of the UK...…………………...





England (approx 57 million people) have now gone into a 3 tier system of restrictions, only 3 small areas of the country are in a good enough state to enter tier 1 currently, the rest of us are in tier 2 (high) or tier 3 (Very high), they will be reviewed every 2 weeks …….  to give some context, where I live is in tier 2 and we currently have 116 cases per 100,000. All shops will remain open, other than that restrictions for the 2 main tiers are ........

*Tier 2 - High*

No household mixing indoors, Rule of six outdoors
Pubs and restaurants to shut at 11pm - alcohol only served as part of substantial meal
Limited numbers of people allowed at sporting events and live performances

*Tier 3 - Very high*

No household mixing indoors
No household mixing outdoors in private gardens or hospitality venues
Rule of six in outdoor public spaces, such as parks
Pubs and restaurants will be closed - except for takeaway/delivery
Indoor entertainment venues will be closed
Guidance against travelling in and out of the area


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## HTC (Dec 6, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 74456 active cases --- *6382 less* --- *911.7 fewer per day*
- 243055 recovered --- 33521 more --- 4788.7 more per day
- 4963 fatalities --- 536 more --- 76.6 more per day
- 322474 confirmed infected --- 27675 more --- 3953.6 more per day

- 4722013 tests taken --- 368779 more --- 36877.9 more per day but was last updated December 3rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 77420 under watch --- *2868 less* --- *409.7 fewer per day*
- 3268 hospitalized --- 23 more --- 3.3 more per day
- 514 in ICU --- *22 less* --- *3.1 less per day*

The measures we put in place are *DEFINITELY* having their effects noticed. New cases have dropped by over 900 per day VS last week, hospitalized increased very slightly, and ICU even dropped instead of increasing. Unfortunately, and though small, the fatalities increased more VS last week: we're expected to reach 5K deaths tomorrow, just like i said in my previous update 

We still have WAY TOO HIGH numbers though


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## harm9963 (Dec 6, 2020)

Just sad


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 7, 2020)

I made a big deal when we went inflected-down (2nd derivative shrinking) back ad the end of November. So I think its only fair that I point out that we've been inflected upwards for the past week. Where "we" is the USA in general. This isn't surprising to me at all: Thanksgiving happened. Of course cases are going to accelerate.





"Inflection" describes the 2nd derivative. The 1st derivative follows the 2nd derivative, and finally the 0th derivative (total cases) follows the 1st derivative. So inflection is a "noisy signal", but its forward looking.


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## Vayra86 (Dec 7, 2020)

Its gonna be a wonderful Christmas, after not locking down in autumn! Here we go!


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## EarthDog (Dec 7, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I made a big deal when we went inflected-down (2nd derivative shrinking) back ad the end of November. So I think its only fair that I point out that we've been inflected upwards for the past week. Where "we" is the USA in general. This isn't surprising to me at all: Thanksgiving happened. Of course cases are going to accelerate.
> 
> View attachment 178555
> 
> "Inflection" describes the 2nd derivative. The 1st derivative follows the 2nd derivative, and finally the 0th derivative (total cases) follows the 1st derivative. So inflection is a "noisy signal", but its forward looking.


pretty sure I called this immediately after the previous post you're talking about. No way was that going to stay trending down with the case load going up. Stupid holidays... lol.

Inflection values and making predictions off of them seems a bit myopic considering the small datasets used to derive the inflection angle.


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 7, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> Its gonna be a wonderful Christmas, after not locking down in autumn! Here we go!



At least you guys don't have Thanksgiving... and Christmas and then New Years.

This string of holidays is just going to wreak the USA. Its innate to our culture to party multiple times at this time, and its often the only time we ever get to see family or some friends (especially because our country is so large). Seattle, Chicago, Omaha, Florida, California, Texas... I got friends and family all over and I would absolutely prefer to see them in person. The end-of-the-year holidays are the traditional time for all of these flights / meetings to take place.

Not this year... for me. But the tradition runs strong in the USA's culture. Its what connects us together. Its going to be extremely difficult to counteract it. My own mother held Thanksgiving, and a cousin who attended tested positive just 2 days afterwards. I can't even convince my own mother about the dangers of parties at this time.

One big holiday is bad enough. But I count ~4 holidays during this time: Thanksgiving, Friendsgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas, New Years. (Thanksgiving is traditionally family, so "friends" are often not part of it. "Friendsgiving" is a made up holiday to meet up with other friends. Hanukkah / Christmas are religious in nature)


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## Vayra86 (Dec 7, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> At least you guys don't have Thanksgiving... and Christmas and then New Years.
> 
> This string of holidays is just going to wreak the USA. Its innate to our culture to party multiple times at this time, and its often the only time we ever get to see family or some friends (especially because our country is so large). Seattle, Chicago, Omaha, Florida, California, Texas... I got friends and family all over and I would absolutely prefer to see them in person. The end-of-the-year holidays are the traditional time for all of these flights / meetings to take place.
> 
> Not this year... for me. But the tradition runs strong in the USA's culture. Its what connects us together. Its going to be extremely difficult to counteract it. My own mother held Thanksgiving, and a cousin who attended tested positive just 2 days afterwards. I can't even convince my own mother about the dangers of parties at this time.



That's just it... it baffles me how lacking the leadership is in most countries - its not just the US. We have a good handle on it here... not leading by example, not having any vision of the (near) future... its annoying. It all 'happens' and then lots of important people get on TV telling us how bad it is now. No shit? How about taking action before the fact... in a positive way.

Thanksgiving was a fantastic way for your country's leaders to come out with the message 'flatten the curve, so you can get together later'... its so simple... and yet... not a word. Here in NL, wrt Christmas and our (just passed) 'Sinterklaasfeest'... we also have a string of traditional days happening and yet we let the curve climb to new heights just weeks before.

Even simple things that were asked for, such as a message from government saying 'no physical Black Friday shopping, go online!' were not being done. Its like...whuuut?!

Look at us hammering down that curve boi


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## Tatty_One (Dec 7, 2020)

We did have a 4 week lockdown and are now in pretty tight tiered restrictions, infections have come down, R rate is below 1, so for 5 days over Xmas we are going to relax and allow 3 family households to come together, so January and February (the critical months for normal non Covid winter pressure) will have us at best back to pre lockdown levels and at worst back in lockdown whilst we try to vaccinate the population.


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## Vayra86 (Dec 8, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> We did have a 4 week lockdown and are now in pretty tight tiered restrictions, infections have come down, R rate is below 1, so for 5 days over Xmas we are going to relax and allow 3 family households to come together, so January and February (the critical months for normal non Covid winter pressure) will have us at best back to pre lockdown levels and at worst back in lockdown whilst we try to vaccinate the population.



All we really get is a baseline of daily infected that keeps going up - everyone around the globe except in the countries that straight up initiate hard lockdowns and then get a very tight system of test and trace in place (which is actually maintained and controlled, not this panic mode version we have in EU). Look at that curve up here. The only way we brought it down was by locking down. Everything weaker than that is just going to let it grow, slowly and painfully, its a torture path more than anything else... And a great way to devolve into getting 'used to' the measures that are in place now. Not good, and as predicted...

We may end up more restrictive in our policy than authoritarian regimes elsewhere just because of our incompetence. In the name of 'good health'... lol
_____
*EDIT:*
And just one day later... woopsie! More net hospitalizations while this number trails the infected count you see above. Black Friday shopping says hello





Here's the updated graph of yesterday on infected count. Hi, we're back again... the beginning of exponential growth as this also crosses over the usually lower weekend.
Percentage of % tested being positive is also rising.





I seriously wonder how many more curves we have to go through before leaders realize you have to *PRE EMPT* this.

Sit, watch and respond should be a crime punishable by death. It really is, except not for the perpetrators. Its our paradox... we want to wait on all data to make the best decisions, but by then you've lost the optimal moment already.


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## Devon68 (Dec 8, 2020)

For the last two weeks we seem to be going up and down in number of infected. Almost every day there are over 7000 new infected depending on the number of tested which ranges from 15000-23000.
And the daily number of dead is over 50. 
Restriction wise. Most of the shops and restaurants are open till 6.00 in the afternoon, although you cant sit in a restaurant (only order the food and eat it at home or order takeout. On weekends only grocery stores that sell food are open. Hairdresser, nail salons, and everything that does not have anything to do with food is closed.
I mean it does hurt the economy but if you dont want to have lockdowns and people complaining about being locked inside their own homes you can lock up most of the shops so people dont have where to go anyway.
*This might not be the thread to ask this but what is your opinion on the vaccines?*
I personally dont want to be first in line to receive it, since even they dont really know what the side effects might be.
Regarding the vaccines I hard a lot of conspiracy theories that made me laugh. Not to belittle some of my friends but some of the theories they keep spreading because they read it online are so out there. I'm in shock as to how can a grown man/woman believe something like that in 2020. I dont want to call them stupid because I dont want to be a smartass, but sometimes I'm just speechless.


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 9, 2020)

Devon68 said:


> For the last two weeks we seem to be going up and down in number of infected.



Where do you live, if you don't mind me asking? You can keep it vague if you don't want to give any specifics.



Devon68 said:


> I personally dont want to be first in line to receive it, since even they dont really know what the side effects might be.



I'd be willing to be first in line even with a "Plan D" vaccine (a hypothetical "dangerous" vaccine). The long-term side effects of COVID19 are likely worse than anything a vaccine can do to you. I mean... COVID19 has a long-term "side effect" of death... but also of months-long lungs damage and breathing problems. We don't really know how long those effects last. Obviously, not everyone gets those chronic conditions... but almost nobody gets sick from a vaccine.

"Plan D" was enacted in case safe-vaccines weren't found. Fortunately, three safe vaccines have been found (where "safe" was tested on over 30,000 people). There's always the risk of a major issue with some strange medication or medical condition, but we're well into 1/30,000 chance or 0.003% chance of that being the case, given the large sample size of phase3 testing.

Obviously, we have to keep track of any strange situations / medical histories / etc. etc. that would cause a serious side effect. But 30,000+ people tested per vaccine (over 40k on Pfizer IIRC), and no issues found yet. That's the standard that means its safe to distribute and "test" on the general public now. There was that one Oxford case that paused the trial: but it turned out to be unrelated to the vaccine.


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## Devon68 (Dec 9, 2020)

> Where do you live, if you don't mind me asking? You can keep it vague if you don't want to give any specifics.


I dont mind posting. I'm from Serbia. Regarding the words first in line. I would personally skip it since I do have a chronic disease. Will have to consult with my doctor first. But yeah getting covid19 would definitely mean 6ft underground in my case. Stay safe everyone.


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 9, 2020)

1711 was the last peak of hospitalizations in my region. With 1715 hospitalized, we're officially in the "worst its ever been" territory today.


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## harm9963 (Dec 14, 2020)

We need this !


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## Tatty_One (Dec 14, 2020)

harm9963 said:


> We need this !


My Mother in law gets her first jab this Thursday and already has an appointment booked for 7th January for her second.  Will be interesting to see who will be first from TPU, I am old so I may be in the running!


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## Vayra86 (Dec 14, 2020)

So, tonight, shortly after Germany announced it, we're going into lockdown. Probably prolonged, because we waited about 1-2 months too long with it. Yay!

Oh, what a wonderful Christmas...  *polishes crystal ball again*


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## EarthDog (Dec 14, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> So, tonight, shortly after Germany announced it, we're going into lockdown. Probably prolonged, because we waited about 1-2 months too long with it. Yay!
> 
> Oh, what a wonderful Christmas...  *polishes crystal ball again*


Weren't you already in a lockdown? I have a friend I talk to daily who lives in Cologne... they were in lockdown/still are(?). This is just tightening things down or was it let up and put back into place again?

I know this because my buddy travels to the Netherlands every other week (he has MS and THC helps him - now has a medical card in Germany).


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## Vayra86 (Dec 14, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Weren't you already in a lockdown? I have a friend I talk to daily who lives in Cologne... they were in lockdown/still are(?). This is just tightening things down or was it let up and put back into place again?
> 
> I know this because my buddy travels to the Netherlands every other week (he has MS and THC helps him - now has a medical card in Germany).



Nah we weren't in lockdown really, just some restrictions here and there. Schools open and everything.

Only entertainment/bars etc are closed and going to work is 'only if necessary' - which in practice means anyone who feels like it. They gradually built up restrictions over the past month's curve. Total fail policy and a perfect way to get everyone sick and tired of it all.


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## Tatty_One (Dec 14, 2020)

I wouldn't worry, we had a 4 week lockdown that ended on 2 December, it helped, we then went in to pretty tight restrictions, 12 days after that lockdown followed by tight restrictions we are almost back to the point we were when we went into lockdown.

Rumour has it that London is about to go into our tier 3 measures (they are currently in tier 2), in essence all hospitality will close along with no mixing indoors or out etc.


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## Vayra86 (Dec 14, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I wouldn't worry, we had a 4 week lockdown that ended on 2 December, it helped, we then went in to pretty tight restrictions, 12 days after that lockdown followed by tight restrictions we are almost back to the point we were when we went into lockdown.
> 
> Rumour has it that London is about to go into our tier 3 measures (they are currently in tier 2), in essence all hospitality will close along with no mixing indoors or out etc.



That is also good for perspective, thanks. Maybe its just shite everywhere anyway.


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## Tatty_One (Dec 14, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> That is also good for perspective, thanks. Maybe its just shite everywhere anyway.


I can confirm it is! I really do think we in Europe/US are at the point that apart from a Winter long full lockdown, whatever we do will be at best a temporary reprieve, the biggest factor in us getting to this point is that most of our leaders thought the worst was over in late summer, everyone was saying we know more, have better treatments etc, we still have 500 - 600 a day dying and whilst it was higher at the peak of the first wave, lets see how high it gets this winter once all the non ventilator beds in hospitals are full let alone the ITU's.

#RantOver


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## HTC (Dec 14, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 71863 active cases --- *2593 less --- 370.4 fewer per day*
- 271322 recovered --- 28267 more --- 4038.1 more per day
- 5559 fatalities --- 596 more --- 85.1 more per day
- 348744 confirmed infected --- 26270 more --- 3752.9 more per day

- 4939014 tests taken --- 217001 more --- 31000.1 more per day but was last updated December 10th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 74012 under watch --- *3408 less --- 486.9 fewer per day*
- 3157 hospitalized --- *111 less --- 15.9 less per day*
- 513 in ICU --- *1 less --- 0.1 less per day*

Was forced to use yesterday's situation report because the "usual report" wasn't published, @ least until before i went to work today.

New cases have dropped by slightly over 400 per day VS last week, hospitalized decreased roughly 3%, and ICU was virtually unchanged. Unfortunately the fatalities increased more VS last week, this time more substantially: we had our highest ever daily death toll yesterday, with 98 deaths 

The measures we have in place aren't bringing the numbers down fast enough thus forcing the prolonging of the measures, with the economic consequences they bring


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## Tatty_One (Dec 14, 2020)

It's official, London going into tier 3 this week, hospitality closed AND we have a mutation of the virus in the London area, 1000 positive cases of it in the last week so the original virus is still around but it is thought that the new strain is more infectious but no more (maybe even slightly less) harmful, apparently the first evidence of this "mutation" showed around 3 weeks ago albeit in very small numbers initially.

Apparently the 3 vaccine's we know about in detail remain as effective against either variation so I can only guess they have been given samples of the mutation to study in order to come to that conclusion.

I came across this basic vaccine comparison whilst looking at our daily numbers...………….


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 14, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> I wouldn't worry, we had a 4 week lockdown that ended on 2 December, it helped, we then went in to pretty tight restrictions, 12 days after that lockdown followed by tight restrictions we are almost back to the point we were when we went into lockdown.
> 
> Rumour has it that London is about to go into our tier 3 measures (they are currently in tier 2), in essence all hospitality will close along with no mixing indoors or out etc.



County-level is beginning to look like that here in Maryland: its a case-by-case basis for what gets shutdown. Without a national strategy to fund the hurt businesses (stimulus checks and/or temporary eviction bans), the local leaders are hesitant to call for a shutdown. But our cases got bad enough that its looking like we're going to be closing dine-in options at least, maybe more.





Okay, I recognize that Christmas is just around the corner and will *probably* result in another major spike upwards. But for now, I think the hospitalization numbers are inflected downward (2nd derivative negative). We had +300 hospitalizations/week in late November, but we're now only getting +150 hospitalizations/week (now that some patients are leaving the hospital, we're not growing quite as quickly as before). We're still at over +2000 cases /day, and deaths are anywhere from 20-deaths/day to 50-deaths/day.

So at best, we're doing "better than some other states". But I wouldn't say we're doing "good", just "not as bad" as we were a week or two ago.



Tatty_One said:


> It's official, London going into tier 3 this week, hospitality closed AND we have a mutation of the virus in the London area, 1000 positive cases of it in the last week so the original virus is still around but it is thought that the new strain is more infectious but no more (maybe even slightly less) harmful, apparently the first evidence of this "mutation" showed around 3 weeks ago albeit in very small numbers initially.



I wouldn't be too worried about most variations. There's at least 6 variants in the USA last time I checked... but all of them seem to have the same spike-protein that these vaccines have targeted. Most mutations seem unlikely to change the spike protein (or something: I'm not a biologist, so I don't really understand it). So its unlikely for most mutations to become "immune to the vaccine" so to speak.

If anything, most mutations are *positive news* for tracking the disease. The London-variant will be able to be tracked, and allow us to better understand how the disease spreads. We can see if London's measures are effective for example, which cities (or countries) the London variant manages to get to, etc. etc. Its actually a good thing and very useful at this stage of the game (as long as it remains under the same vaccine).

IIRC, a lot of our understanding of how this disease spread in the USA came from a Boston mutation: https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...8/25/boston-coronavirus-superspreading-event/

With luck, yall across the pond can get a grasp on what super-spreader event caused the London-variant to grow. And then you can use that information to better inform future lockdown procedures.


----------



## Tatty_One (Dec 14, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> County-level is beginning to look like that here in Maryland: its a case-by-case basis for what gets shutdown. Without a national strategy to fund the hurt businesses (stimulus checks and/or temporary eviction bans), the local leaders are hesitant to call for a shutdown. But our cases got bad enough that its looking like we're going to be closing dine-in options at least, maybe more.
> 
> View attachment 179599
> 
> ...



I can tell you now, it's called the London Underground, even with restrictions and plenty working from home, the capital still has near to 1 million travelling to work in the morning packed into small carriages as well as 400,000 school children, plus of course being the capital there are lots travelling in and out for work related business, so that new variation is probably on it's way to me if not already (I am 125 miles away), happy days.  At least in tier 3 the business traffic will reduce a bit and schools are now going to be off for 2 - 3 weeks.


----------



## R-T-B (Dec 14, 2020)

Devon68 said:


> since even they dont really know what the side effects might be.



There have been large scale clinical trials.  They know the side effects by now (similar to flu shot, last I checked.  Mild fever at worst).

Either way, receiving it first won't be an option unless you are essential healthcare or similar most likely.  So you'll have plenty of data before you can get it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Dec 15, 2020)

R-T-B said:


> There have been large scale clinical trials.  They know the side effects by now (similar to flu shot, last I checked.  Mild fever at worst).
> 
> Either way, receiving it first won't be an option unless you are essential healthcare or similar most likely.  So you'll have plenty of data before you can get it.



To be frank: "phase 4" as it is sometimes called, is still fraught with difficulties. A 30,000+ person tests are the best method we got before large-scale distribution of a drug. But 100-million is more people by an order of magnitude. A degree of worry and caution should be kept in any trial as a drug or vaccine moves forward to mass consumption.

Simple things, like side-effects, are known and well studied in the 30,000 person test. But the issue is "rare interactions", the stuff of the literal 1-in-a-million chances. (Ex: someone with a 3rd kidney mutation + got into a car accident recently and is taking some obscure painkiller + then gets a vaccine). A rare genetic mutation + relatively rare medication + new vaccine could cause issues (probably not, but a combination like that would almost certainly not be tested in Phase 3).

Phase 3 is "a normal person who takes the vaccine", and what seems to happen to normal people.

------

Anyone who is in a rare or rare-ish situation should talk to their doctor about risks if they have any amount of doubt. I'm not talking about common people like me who have high-blood pressure, or diabetes, or obesity. Those are common conditions and are almost certainly tested for. But if you've got a rare disease, or are recovering from some experimental cancer treatment or something... yeah... you might want to hold off on the vaccine. And that's perfectly acceptable to feel cautious about that.


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## Drone69 (Dec 15, 2020)

I`m eligible for the vaccine(End stage emphysema) and don`t really have to worry about any long term side effects. Only problem my Dr is not giving the vaccine to their patients. I`ll have to travel to another town to get it.


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## Ahhzz (Dec 15, 2020)

Drone69 said:


> I`m eligible for the vaccine(End stage emphysema) and don`t really have to worry about any long term side effects. Only problem my Dr is not giving the vaccine to their patients. I`ll have to travel to another town to get it.


seriously?? .... Is there a reason he's not giving the vaccine?


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## Drone69 (Dec 15, 2020)

They didn`t say why. I was reading a story in  the news yesterday about a number of Drs in England that wouldn`t be giving it out.

I can`t find the story to put a link to it. But when I called my Dr to make an appointment this morning I asked about the vaccine and was told they aren`t doing it at that surgery.


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 16, 2020)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/16/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-KE2GP74B6JH75C5YQMJJVB4FEQ
		




> A health-care worker in Alaska had a serious allergic reaction and was hospitalized after getting the new coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, and is in stable condition, according to two people familiar with the situation.
> 
> ...
> 
> ...



Yup yup. These are the things that come out of "Phase 4" that I was talking about.

I'm still getting the vaccine when its available.(I've taken dozens of vaccines over the years and a yearly flu shot, never had an allergic reaction before. But there's too many edge-cases in the world, that even a 30,000+ person test won't be able to predict. Generally speaking, I always spend ~15 minutes walking around the hospital area after getting a flu shot just in case a reaction comes up (those anaphylaxis things kick in within minutes). So as long as you aren't like, driving in a car when it hits you (and you're close to a hospital ANYWAY if you're getting a vaccine), you'll be fine.

So that'd be my recommendation: take the vaccine, spend 15 minutes waiting for an allergic reaction (and stay close to medical care and/or in a public area with lots of people). After ~15 minutes, you're clear of that potential issue. (If you don't react within 15 minutes, you're probably not allergic to the vaccine that was injected to your veins)

EDIT: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-12/COVID-03-Mbaeyi.pdf

Apparently, the CDC recommendation is 30-minutes for anaphylaxis, not 15-minutes. Good to know...



> Vaccine providers should observe patients after vaccination to monitor for the occurrence of immediate adverse reactions:
> • Persons with a history of anaphylaxis: 30 minutes
> • All other persons: 15 mins


----------



## HTC (Dec 16, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I'm still getting the vaccine. (I've taken dozens of vaccines over the years and a yearly flu shot, never had an allergic reaction before). But there's too many edge-cases in the world, that even a 30,000+ person test won't be able to predict. Generally speaking, I always spend ~15 minutes walking around the hospital area after getting a flu shot just in case a reaction comes up (*those anaphylaxis things kick in within minutes*). So as long as you aren't like, driving in a car when it hits you (and you're close to a hospital ANYWAY if you're getting a vaccine), you'll be fine.
> 
> So that'd be my recommendation: take the vaccine, spend 15 minutes waiting for an allergic reaction (and stay close to medical care and/or in a public area with lots of people). After ~15 minutes, you're clear of that potential issue. (If you don't react within 15 minutes, you're probably not allergic to the vaccine that was injected to your veins)
> 
> ...



Not always.

When i was very young, i got a penicillin test shot and, after a VERY long wait, i got the 1st penicillin dose. All seemed well but, when it was time for the 2nd dose, the arm i took the 1st dose in was nearly twice as thick as the other arm, as i was having an allergic reaction.

Afterwards, the hospital ended up changing it's rules regarding the waiting period after penicillin test shots because of me, or so my mother tells me since i was too young to remember.


----------



## Tatty_One (Dec 16, 2020)

Drone69 said:


> They didn`t say why. I was reading a story in  the news yesterday about a number of Drs in England that wouldn`t be giving it out.
> 
> I can`t find the story to put a link to it. But when I called my Dr to make an appointment this morning I asked about the vaccine and was told they aren`t doing it at that surgery.


There are actually very few Doctor's Surgeries that have the vaccine currently, in my County (Worcestershire) there are only 5 surgeries that have it, lucky for us though the nearest one that has is only 3 miles away and my Mother in law (88 years old) has hers tomorrow, by the 2nd week of January there will be a lot more that have it but because of the storage limitations along with the throughput of patients all surgeries will never have the Pfizer vaccine, if and when we get the other 2 vaccine's once approved (hopefully) then every surgery and pharmacy should get them as shelf life is much less of a problem.


----------



## Space Lynx (Dec 17, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> There are actually very few Doctor's Surgeries that have the vaccine currently, in my County (Worcestershire) there are only 5 surgeries that have it, lucky for us though the nearest one that has is only 3 miles away and my Mother in law (88 years old) has hers tomorrow, by the 2nd week of January there will be a lot more that have it but because of the storage limitations along with the throughput of patients all surgeries will never have the Pfizer vaccine, if and when we get the other 2 vaccine's once approved (hopefully) then every surgery and pharmacy should get them as shelf life is much less of a problem.




Does anyone know yet if the two shot vaccine spaced a month a part is one and done vaccine like the shots we get when we are babies? Or will it be needed every 6-12 months to maintain antibodies? Or do we just not know yet?


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 17, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Does anyone know yet if the two shot vaccine spaced a month a part is one and done vaccine like the shots we get when we are babies? Or will it be needed every 6-12 months to maintain antibodies? Or do we just not know yet?


we don't yet...these have only existed for a few months.


----------



## Tatty_One (Dec 17, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Does anyone know yet if the two shot vaccine spaced a month a part is one and done vaccine like the shots we get when we are babies? Or will it be needed every 6-12 months to maintain antibodies? Or do we just not know yet?


As ED has said, however it is likely that it will require further top up's very much like the Flu, we just don't know yet, I mean the UK's flu vaccine is a cocktail which includes a vaccine for the H1N1 Swine Flu so anything is possible, it is said that usually a vaccine lasts significantly longer than natural immunity but again we will need to see that to believe it.

Pfizer is 3 weeks apart, full immunity 7-14 days after 2nd jab (allegedly)


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Dec 17, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> Does anyone know yet if the two shot vaccine spaced a month a part is one and done vaccine like the shots we get when we are babies? Or will it be needed every 6-12 months to maintain antibodies? Or do we just not know yet?



It lasts longer than 8-months. But that's all people know so far. In a month or two, we'll know if it lasts longer than 9-months or 10-months (or however often those studies decide to publish).


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 17, 2020)

The flu shot is offered annually... but that's because of different strains, right? They see/predict the most common strain and that's what they shoot for? 

So far, the mrna based shot(s) will cover any of the different mutations. So id guess we don't have to at this point, but it depends on how long the antibodies etc last (which we don't know).


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Dec 17, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> The flu shot is offered annually... but that's because of different strains, right? They see/predict the most common strain and that's what they shoot for?



Yes.

But *also* because flu-vaccinations only last ~6-months. So even if it was the same flu, it will be worn out by the next year. For this reason, you're not supposed to get your flu shot in July (which would be too early: wearing off before the end of the flu season).


----------



## lexluthermiester (Dec 17, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> So even if it was the same flu, it will be worn out by the next year.


That's not how the human immune system works. New vaccinations are for new strains.


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That's not how the human immune system works. New vaccinations are for new strains.


After reading, it's both. 

It lasts around 6 months before the antibodies start to wane...and there are new strains they may update the shot for.









						Selecting Viruses for the Seasonal Flu Vaccine
					

Vaccine composition is reviewed each year and updated as needed based on which influenza viruses are making people sick.




					www.cdc.gov
				





> Flu viruses are constantly changing, so the vaccine composition is reviewed each year and updated _as needed_ based on which influenza viruses are making people sick, the extent to which those viruses are spreading, and how well the previous season’s vaccine protects against those viruses.










__





						Ask the Experts: Influenza Vaccines
					





					www.immunize.org
				





> Protection from influenza vaccine is thought to persist for at least 6 months. Protection declines over time because of waning antibody levels and because of changes in circulating influenza viruses from year to year. For people who need only 1 dose of influenza vaccine for the season, yearly vaccination (i.e. in July and August) is likely to be associated with suboptimal immunity before the end of the influenza season, particularly among older adults.


----------



## R-T-B (Dec 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That's not how the human immune system works.



It is for Coronavirus though, so it might be true in other instances.



EarthDog said:


> After reading, it's both.



Thank you.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Dec 17, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> After reading, it's both.


That is true only for mutations. Once the immune system understand how to destroy a strain, it does not forget. However, the influenza mutates easily and quickly, thus the need for new vacinations to "re-train" the immune system.


R-T-B said:


> It is for Coronavirus though, so it might be true in other instances.


Not yet it isn't, but such is possible and we're all in for a fun ride if it does.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Dec 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That's not how the human immune system works. New vaccinations are for new strains.











						Upcoming 2020-2021 Influenza Season
					

What you need to know about the upcoming 2020-2021 influenza season in the United States.




					www.cdc.gov
				






> There is no change in CDC’s recommendation on timing of vaccination this flu season. Getting vaccinated in July or August is too early, especially for older people, because of the likelihood of reduced protection against flu infection later in the flu season. September and October are good times to get vaccinated. However, as long as flu viruses are circulating, vaccination should continue, even in January or later.



It is well known in the medical community that flu vaccines only last ~6 months. CDC recommends against July or August vaccinations for this very reason.

The human immune system responds differently to different diseases. Chickenpox is decades (only coming back as Shingles decades later), but the flu is only ~6-months... to the point that July or August vaccinations are a bad idea.

Where does that put COVID19? Well... we'll see when people get reinfected. Its longer than the flu immunity, but probably shorter than chicken pox immunity.


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That is true only for mutations. Once the immune system understand how to destroy a strain, it does not forget. However, the influenza mutates easily and quickly, thus the need for new vacinations to "re-train" the immune system.


I don't get that from the two links provided. It clearly states that protection starts to wane ("reduced protection") after 6 months. If it lasted longer, the CDC would 'allow' people to get these shots a lot earlier than recommended, no? They state not to get it in July/August as that is too early.

This is telling as well..."and how well the previous season’s vaccine protects against those viruses. ". The verbiage also leaves open the possibility of using the same vaccine again for the same strain (they say "may" update). If the same strain is dominant and that is what they are inoculating against, you still need to get the same shot again.

Respectfully, you can say were wrong, but, the CDC and the other reputable link(s) provided tell us otherwise. If you know something different, please support your assertion with links...


----------



## lexluthermiester (Dec 17, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> I don't get that from the two links provided. It clearly states that protection starts to wane ("reduced protection") after 6 months.


Because the influenza virus mutates.


EarthDog said:


> If it lasted longer, the CDC would 'allow' people to get these shots a lot earlier than recommended, no?


People can go get shots anytime they wish. The CDC only issues advisory data, it is not an enforcement agency.


EarthDog said:


> They state not to get it in July/August as that is too early.


That is only a general advisory.


EarthDog said:


> The verbiage also leaves open the possibility of using the same vaccine again for the same strain (they say "may" update). If the same strain is dominant and that is what they are inoculating against, you still need to get the same shot again.


The vaccine shot being issued changes from season to season to match the most prevalent strain being detected in the populace. There are no assurances that the shot you get will protect you from every strain of influenza out there.


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## Space Lynx (Dec 17, 2020)

The more I think about all of this, not even covid, just everything out there, I am really surprised more companies aren't trying to move to a remote working business model. I know not every field can, but there are so many that can and the companies are still resisting even now. Once this pandemic is gone though, I don't know, it's a shame there is so much resistance to remote job business model. I would prefer it myself, but still can't find anything remote.


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## lexluthermiester (Dec 17, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> The more I think about all of this, not even covid, just everything out there, I am really surprised more companies aren't trying to move to a remote working business model.


That's because most illness is not deadly not even all that serious. Covid19 has proven to be serious to certain members of the population. There wasn't a need previously.


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## EarthDog (Dec 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Because the influenza virus mutates.
> 
> People can go get shots anytime they wish. The CDC only issues advisory data, it is not an enforcement agency.
> 
> ...


I'm not sure you're understanding what was said, honestly. I can't break it down any better than they have. Note, I'm not trying to be douchey... I could be missing something... but I sourced the CDC and another reputable site. You haven't sourced anything. Again, respectfully, I'm not trying to take your (anyone's) words at face value. It's not like you're telling us the sun comes up in the East. 

Yes, they can get shots at any point. That isn't in question.

It's a general advisory, true. It advises people not to get the shot early because its protection wanes in the months where the flu is prevalent.

As they (CDC) said, there isn't a guarantee the vaccine changes from year to year. So you could get the same shot again to protect against the same, dominant/make people sick strain.

If it was two years/longer, they'd 'advise' us to get them every two years/longer. Instead, it's every year...writing is on the wall this doesn't last for MULTIPLE reasons.


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That is only a general advisory.











						Key Facts About Seasonal Flu Vaccine
					

An annual seasonal flu vaccine is the best way to help protect against flu. Learn more about seasonal flu vaccine.




					www.cdc.gov
				






> A flu vaccine is needed every season for two reasons. *First, a person’s immune protection from vaccination declines over time, so an annual vaccine is needed for optimal protection.*



Emphasis again: *A person's immune protection declines over time*, so you need to repeatedly get vaccinated even against the same strain. This decline is as little as 6-months in the case of older adults.

And of course...



> Second, because flu viruses are constantly changing, flu vaccines may be updated from one season to the next to protect against the viruses that research suggests may be most common during the upcoming flu season. For the best protection, everyone 6 months and older should get vaccinated annually.



There's no argument about this 2nd point. So I've separated them out.


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## kapone32 (Dec 17, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Because the influenza virus mutates.
> 
> People can go get shots anytime they wish. The CDC only issues advisory data, it is not an enforcement agency.
> 
> ...


The "flu" has been studied since before modern medicine. Everything we do as humans to combat Covid is as it goes. It is amazing that a vaccine(s) has been developed in such a short space of time and the effectiveness (and or danger) of them remains to be appreciated and understood fully.


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## Tatty_One (Dec 17, 2020)

What is interesting is that the H1N1 swine flu vaccine was produced in less than 6 months in the US (despite the world being in awe of the speed we have managed to produce the Coronavirus vaccine, albeit from what I understand Coronavirus has greater complexity) and from what I read it has not changed in the 11 years since, the Flu jab I had last month was a cocktail of 7 vaccine's, H1N1 was in there too, i was pleased about that as I had H1N1 in early 2013 and it was not a recommended experience.


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## kapone32 (Dec 18, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> What is interesting is that the H1N1 swine flu vaccine was produced in less than 6 months in the US (despite the world being in awe of the speed we have managed to produce the Coronavirus vaccine, albeit from what I understand Coronavirus has greater complexity) and from what I read it has not changed in the 11 years since, the Flu jab I had last month was a cocktail of 7 vaccine's, H1N1 was in there too, i was pleased about that as I had H1N1 in early 2013 and it was not a recommended experience.


Right but it was still a variant of the "flu" as we understand it and all Flu vaccines are a cocktail to inform your immune system of potential dangers. From what I have read about Covid we thought it was a strain of the flu but it turned out to be something completely different. Indeed many of the things we thought we knew about Covid have been steadily revised or reversed all together. Even at the height of any virus outbreak in the last 20 years we have not seen the response that we have seen to Covid but one of the stats that sticks with me is a Long term Care home near where I live. On one of the Thursdays at the start of this 1 person was infected by the Sunday 39 of the 42 residents had passed away from Covid. Those numbers are alarming and the only thing that Covid has in relation to the flu is transmission. In fact Covid is the only "VIrus" that shut down the world's economy if even for 3 to 6 monthsin a world where nothing ever stops in terms of logisitcs.


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## robot zombie (Dec 18, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> The more I think about all of this, not even covid, just everything out there, I am really surprised more companies aren't trying to move to a remote working business model. I know not every field can, but there are so many that can and the companies are still resisting even now. Once this pandemic is gone though, I don't know, it's a shame there is so much resistance to remote job business model. I would prefer it myself, but still can't find anything remote.


A little OT, but I was kind of hoping being forced to try it might bring some around a little more. Lots of savings to be had, and in some cases much better for workers (no long commutes... or really any of the pitfalls of an office environment.) Many times that environment is simply needed but increasingly more often there are largely unexplored means that could end up revolutionizing both productivity AND work-life balance, both hot issues for office jobs right now.

I kind of wonder... not really knowing what it's like, how nice/not nice it would be to work from home as a coder versus in an environment with distractions. What if you're buying these clothes, losing in wear and tear on vehicle/long-drive-life-energy-sinkage, and getting paid less JUST to mostly sit at a computer all day and hope nothing that has nothing to do with your job distracts you enough to make it take longer/be more stressful?

What about more rote things like data entry? You know?


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## HTC (Dec 20, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:


       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 70754 active cases --- *1109 less --- 158.4 fewer per day*
- 297233 recovered --- 25911 more --- 3701.6 more per day
- 6134 fatalities --- 575 more --- 82.1 more per day
- 374121 confirmed infected --- 25377 more --- 3625.3 more per day

- 5186675 tests taken --- 2476611 more --- 35380.1 more per day but was last updated December 17th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 82591 under watch --- 12579 more --- 1797 more per day
- 3027 hospitalized --- *130 less --- 18.6 less per day*
- 483 in ICU --- *30 less --- 4.3 less per day*

Was forced to use last Sunday's situation report because the "usual report" wasn't published.

New cases have dropped by roughly 125 per day VS last week, hospitalized decreased roughly 4%, and ICU dropped by almost 6%. Unfortunately the fatalities continue VERY HIGH but decreased VS last week, slightly: we've crossed the 6K fatalities yesterday 

The measures we have in place aren't bringing the numbers down fast enough thus forcing the prolonging of the measures, with the economic consequences they bring: our Government's plan to let the restrictions loose more solely for Christmas will likely backfire spectacularly


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 20, 2020)

This is probably the first Sunday that I can remember Hospitalizations going up (There seems to be a "weekend lull" most of the time: hospitalizations going down on Saturday / Sunday / Monday). But this week has been pretty good otherwise: despite going up +27 today, we're down ~17 since last week (and that's after big spikes upwards on Wednesday / Thursday).

#Cases and %Positive remain steady at 2000 and 7.5+% respectively. But we're probably at the point where people "leaving the hospital" has more or less equalized with people "entering the hospital". Well... for now anyway. This is Christmas week after all, and New Years comes next week. Even if major celebrations are rolled back (or even cancelled), private parties / get togethers will inevitably spike the numbers again.

We're probably in the clear after that however. I don't foresee any major events in January that would make things dramatically worse. After that comes Spring, and also the widespread distribution of the vaccine.


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## Vayra86 (Dec 20, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> The more I think about all of this, not even covid, just everything out there, I am really surprised more companies aren't trying to move to a remote working business model. I know not every field can, but there are so many that can and the companies are still resisting even now. Once this pandemic is gone though, I don't know, it's a shame there is so much resistance to remote job business model. I would prefer it myself, but still can't find anything remote.



Weeeeelll... I'm working remotely for over a year now, and I can't say I'm happier with my work than I was before.

It gets boring, man. Shit. The ideal balance I'd say would be 1 mandatory and another optional day at the office, and if you 'need' more, you have to apply for it. This would be a fan-tas-tic balance in terms of work/colleague/team spirit factors, having time to focus on your job at home for the other half of the week (or more)... and overall traffic congestion.

How to do this? Make companies pay for every worker that goes to work more than 2 days per week, in all sectors where it is physically possible to work remotely. And actively try to add new jobs to that list.

A dream...


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## Sithaer (Dec 20, 2020)

lynx29 said:


> edited...



I feel that, had similar experiences with various workplaces in the past years.

Worked in various factories and such but I rarely have workmates who I can connect on any level and I do prefer working alone or with 1-2 person at max.
I despise politics and once I had an older workmate who could not stop talking about that and asking me what I think,etc.
Had no idea about the ppl hes talking about as I don't follow any of that crap, after 2 days he almost drove me crazy but luckily I got a new workmate after.

So far I only had 1 place where I had workmates who were ~semi gamers and interested  in hardware so that was cool, even my boss was a gamer and around my age. _'31'_
Stayed at that place for a while but eventually I had to leave cause of other reasons._ 'they did not want to let me go'_

Currently I only have a part time job from home since late September, its almost like a factory job but I can do it on my own and the ppl I'm working for bring the materials and take away the finished product._ 'I work in our own garage under the house'_
Not much money but I will take this over nothing or working at a shitty place with a mask on for 8 hours _'I also wear glasses'_, probably I will do this until things get somewhat better then try to find a _'proper'_ job but thats hard around here even w/o a pandemic.

Thats why its taking me ~4 months to save up for a 350$ GPU.


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## EarthDog (Dec 21, 2020)

We've got another map for the US... vaccinations.. 









						Vaccines - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

With dozens of COVID-19 vaccines now in clinical trials, it is important to understand the accelerated timelines for development, the different types of vaccines available, and the facts related to vaccine safety and efficacy. Additionally, as vaccines are approved, we will track data on...




					coronavirus.jhu.edu


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## Tatty_One (Dec 21, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> We've got another map for the US... vaccinations..
> 
> 
> 
> ...


We hit the half a million mark yesterday, apparently next week it is ramping up considerably.

Edit:  I can also report that my 88 year old mother in law had her first jab last Thursday, apart for a slightly sore upper arm for 24 hours she reports no side effects ….. ohhhhh well lets hope her 2nd jab does better!


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## Space Lynx (Dec 21, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> We hit the half a million mark yesterday, apparently next week it is ramping up considerably.



Long live the shires!


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 21, 2020)

Not a single locally transmitted case since April here...
A fair few imported ones though.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Dec 21, 2020)

Tatty_One said:


> We hit the half a million mark yesterday, apparently next week it is ramping up considerably.
> 
> Edit:  I can also report that my 88 year old mother in law had her first jab last Thursday, apart for a slightly sore upper arm for 24 hours she reports no side effects ….. ohhhhh well lets hope her 2nd jab does better!



The issue with "sore arms" is that tensing up during the injection causes the soreness. But people tense up because you got sore the last time you got jabbed... so its basically a self-fulfilling prophesy.

I personally just look away entirely: I try to get the nurse to jab me at an unexpected time without warning, so that I don't have time to tense up. That seems to do the trick for me personally.


----------



## Ahhzz (Dec 21, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The issue with "sore arms" is that tensing up during the injection causes the soreness. But people tense up because you got sore the last time you got jabbed... so its basically a self-fulfilling prophesy.
> 
> I personally just look away entirely: I try to get the nurse to jab me at an unexpected time without warning, so that I don't have time to tense up. That seems to do the trick for me personally.


That's usually true for me lol, however one of my best friends is a nurse, and understands the basics heheh. She got hers over the weekend, and had a sore arm for a bit over a day, otherwise doing well so far. So, while for some people, it's a 'tensing' thing, I'm betting this one just makes your arm sore, period


----------



## Tatty_One (Dec 21, 2020)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The issue with "sore arms" is that tensing up during the injection causes the soreness. But people tense up because you got sore the last time you got jabbed... so its basically a self-fulfilling prophesy.
> 
> I personally just look away entirely: I try to get the nurse to jab me at an unexpected time without warning, so that I don't have time to tense up. That seems to do the trick for me personally.


I like to watch them doing it and always have ever since I can remember, I don't tense up probably just because I have had so many jabs and muscle injections are so much easier than finding a vein, there can be no surprise if you watch


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

It would seem I jinxed it.








						Taiwan announces 1st local coronavirus case in 254 days | Taiwan News | 2020-12-22 14:18:00
					

Latest domestic COVID-19 infection is woman who came in close contact with New Zealand pilot | 2020-12-22 14:18:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Ahhzz (Dec 22, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> It would seem I jinxed it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Still, they've been rocking the pandemic.


----------



## Vayra86 (Dec 22, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Still, they've been rocking the pandemic.



To rock or to ride the waves... lol

Seems like we love surfing in Europe.


----------



## Ahhzz (Dec 22, 2020)

Vayra86 said:


> To rock or to ride the waves... lol
> 
> Seems like we love surfing in Europe.


lol In all seriousness, they have been doing what needed to be done, and they've made a serious dent in what could have been a hub for super-spreaders...


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 22, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> It would seem I jinxed it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Can't say I believe this...ill leave it at that.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Can't say I believe this...ill leave it at that.


Well, I mentioned there had been no new local cases since April and now this...


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 22, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Well, I mentioned there had been no new local cases since April and now this...


Right. I don't buy that they haven't had cases since April until now.

...but you are an island...so who knows.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Right. I don't buy that they haven't had cases since April until now.
> 
> ...but you are an island...so who knows.


There hasn't been any local spread. Keep in mind that Taiwan got an early heads up in January, which they tried to share, but no-one listened.
Chinese citizens were banned from entry in February and there have been quarantine measurements in place since January.
Keep in mind that Taiwan was quite badly hit by SARS and they had the equipment in storage, so it wasn't hard to start screening people pretty much straight away.
So no, there has been no local spread since April, although there has been some 700 imported cases, so it's not like there have been zero cases.








						Taiwan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Taiwan Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Ahhzz (Dec 22, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Right. I don't buy that they haven't had cases since April until now.
> 
> ...but you are an island...so who knows.


They also did more, and more earlier, than any other country in the world, and they don't have a healthcare system that restricts people's access to support. Showing symptoms? Go to the hospital and get tested. Covered. Positive? Get treated, including hospital stays, Covered. Positive, but can go home? Stay quarantined under penalty of a huge fine. They are more used to governmental interference in their daily lives, so this one wouldn't fly in the states, but worked well over there, and they're also very used to wearing masks to protect others if they're sick.. The Asian community in Japan, China, Taiwan, etc are very concerned with "face". They would be mortified to find out they'd not worn a mask and gotten someone else sick, unlike in the states where apparently people are expected to only look out for themselves, not their fellow humans.


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 22, 2020)

Well aware of what they did and when. It's just unbelieveable is all. That 700 number is better than '0'.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> They also did more, and more earlier, than any other country in the world, and they don't have a healthcare system that restricts people's access to support. Showing symptoms? Go to the hospital and get tested. Covered. Positive? Get treated, including hospital stays, Covered. Positive, but can go home? Stay quarantined under penalty of a huge fine. They are more used to governmental interference in their daily lives, so this one wouldn't fly in the states, but worked well over there, and they're also very used to wearing masks to protect others if they're sick.. The Asian community in Japan, China, Taiwan, etc are very concerned with "face". They would be mortified to find out they'd not worn a mask and gotten someone else sick, unlike in the states where apparently people are expected to only look out for themselves, not their fellow humans.


Uhm, no, the government doesn't interfere with peoples lives here. That was a very long time ago and Taiwan is no different from most western countries when it comes to government involvement in daily life. 
What people are used to, is wearing masks when they're sick, so it was not a big ask to make them wear masks when out in public. 
People also don't question health care advice from the government in the same way as they do in the US for example.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Well aware of what they did and when. It's just unbelieveable is all. That 700 number is better than '0'.


Unlike Tanzania and China, Taiwan is counting all cases. Never said there was zero cases, simply no local transmission since April, until now.


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 22, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Unlike Tanzania and China, Taiwan is counting all cases. Never said there was zero cases, simply no local transmission since April, until now.


Yep.. I needed to read with a bit more comprehension is all, lol. 

But surely it's understandable that there is a question on several countries over there and its reporting. This doesn't just go to zero unless you're a tiny (tinier) island nation that locked all the gates (along with other measures and the population buy in on such measures..


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

EarthDog said:


> Yep.. I needed to read with a bit more comprehension is all, lol.
> 
> But surely it's understandable that there is a question on several countries over there and its reporting. This doesn't just go to zero unless you're a tiny (tinier) island nation that locked all the gates (along with other measures and the population buy in on such measures..


Well, no, but it goes to zero when everyone follows the rules. When I came back in July after having been stuck in Sweden since February, I had to spend two weeks in quarantine and had daily calls or text messages from the government to check that I hadn't gotten sick. The text messages continued a week after the quarantine. 
The government is super paranoid about it here and they track your phone. I went to the toilet and the signal cut out, as soon as my phone had a cellular signal again, I got a call from the local police, as they thought I'd breached quarantine. There are stiff fines for breaching quarantine of up to NT$1 million. 
Not everyone followed the rules and after a few fat fines, people weren't so interested in trying to breach the quarantine.


----------



## EarthDog (Dec 22, 2020)

That's a bit scary... but effective it seems.


----------



## Flanker (Dec 22, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Well, no, but it goes to zero when everyone follows the rules. When I came back in July after having been stuck in Sweden since February, I had to spend two weeks in quarantine and had daily calls or text messages from the government to check that I hadn't gotten sick. The text messages continued a week after the quarantine.
> The government is super paranoid about it here and they track your phone. I went to the toilet and the signal cut out, as soon as my phone had a cellular signal again, I got a call from the local police, as they thought I'd breached quarantine. There are stiff fines for breaching quarantine of up to NT$1 million.
> Not everyone followed the rules and after a few fat fines, people weren't so interested in trying to breach the quarantine.


Not to mention how in Taiwan people doing something stupid is likely to get filmed and uploaded to youtube. A lot of journalists seek out materials from YT. Then everyone can see from local news who is the asshole putting other people's lives at risk.


----------



## Ahhzz (Dec 22, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> Uhm, no, the government doesn't interfere with peoples lives here. That was a very long time ago and Taiwan is no different from most western countries when it comes to government involvement in daily life.
> What people are used to, is wearing masks when they're sick, so it was not a big ask to make them wear masks when out in public.
> People also don't question health care advice from the government in the same way as they do in the US for example.


I _slightly_ disagree. If I understood/remember correctly, people that were supposed to be self-quarantined were tracked via their phones by the government, which is something that the common public, at least in the states, really wouldn't tolerate. Google/Facebook/Apple, yes: government, no


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> I _slightly_ disagree. If I understood/remember correctly, people that were supposed to be self-quarantined were tracked via their phones by the government, which is something that the common public, at least in the states, really wouldn't tolerate. Google/Facebook/Apple, yes: government, no


Well, if you want to enter Taiwan, you have to provide a phone number, so it's voluntary. If you don't want to, then you don't enter Taiwan.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Dec 22, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> I went to the toilet and the signal cut out, as soon as my phone had a cellular signal again, I got a call from the local police, as they thought I'd breached quarantine. There are stiff fines for breaching quarantine of up to NT$1 million.



Funny as that is, it doesn't really jive with the earlier statement that in Taiwan Gov't there doesn't interfere in people's lives


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

RandallFlagg said:


> Funny as that is, it doesn't really jive with the earlier statement that in Taiwan Gov't there doesn't interfere in people's lives


How is that interfering when you're under government mandated quarantine? 
Are you seriously saying that you think that people should be allowed to breach quarantine? That's exactly the kind of crap that has placed the world in the situation it is now, because the few are not willing to do what is needed to make sure the many doesn't get sick.


----------



## R-T-B (Dec 22, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Not yet it



We already have people who have caught it twice...


----------



## R-T-B (Dec 22, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> That's because most illness is not deadly not even all that serious. Covid19 has proven to be serious to certain members of the population. There wasn't a need previously.



His point is, there will be one someday, and this should be a more serious wakeup call than it presently is being treated as.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Dec 22, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> How is that interfering when you're under government mandated quarantine?
> Are you seriously saying that you think that people should be allowed to breach quarantine? That's exactly the kind of crap that has placed the world in the situation it is now, because the few are not willing to do what is needed to make sure the many doesn't get sick.



Sorry, I didn't catch the quarantine part.  I assume they don't do that for normal not quarantined people.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Dec 22, 2020)

RandallFlagg said:


> Sorry, I didn't catch the quarantine part.  I assume they don't do that for normal not quarantined people.


Indeed.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Dec 23, 2020)

Ahhzz said:


> Still, they've been rocking the pandemic.


Being an island does have that benefit!


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Dec 23, 2020)

lexluthermiester said:


> Being an island does have that benefit!



In theory... yes.

In practice... https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...ew-covid-infections-no-additional-fatalities/


----------



## Ahhzz (Dec 23, 2020)

TheLostSwede said:


> How is that interfering when you're under government mandated quarantine?
> Are you seriously saying that you think that people should be allowed to breach quarantine? That's exactly the kind of crap that has placed the world in the situation it is now, because the few are not willing to do what is needed to make sure the many doesn't get sick.


No one is saying that, they're pointing out that your statement is a textbook example of the "Government interfering with people's lives"


dragontamer5788 said:


> In theory... yes.
> 
> In practice... https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...ew-covid-infections-no-additional-fatalities/


Ah, but Hawaii is stuck with the same (lack of) governmental direction the rest of the states have. Hawaii is nowhere near the island that Taiwan is. It's just a 'slightly separated' state.


----------



## HTC (Dec 27, 2020)

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:


       

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 68208 active cases --- *2546 less --- 363.7 fewer per day*
- 319746 recovered --- 27513 more --- 3930.4 more per day
- 6619 fatalities --- 485 more --- 69.3 more per day
- 394573 confirmed infected --- 20452 more --- 2921.7 more per day

- 5323341 tests taken --- 136666 more --- 34166.5 more per day but was last updated December 21st and it includes antigen tests as well
- 92069 under watch --- 9478 more --- 1354 more per day
- 2870 hospitalized --- *157 less --- 22.4 less per day*
- 504 in ICU --- 21 more --- 3 more per day

Was forced to use Christmas day's situation report because the "usual report" wasn't published.

New cases have dropped by roughly 700 per day VS last week, hospitalized decreased roughly 5%, but ICU increased by over 4%. Unfortunately the fatalities continue VERY HIGH but decreased by 90 VS last week.

This week is atypical because it includes the Christmas holiday period which, though not reflected yet in tests taken because it's last update was on Dec 21st, it explains the significant drop in new daily cases: fewer tests done = fewer cases detected. This isn't reflected in the hospitalizations, ICU and fatalities numbers which, with the exception of ICU, all had sizable drops. We should start experiencing the adverse effects of relaxing the restrictions on Christmas Eve / Day by the end of next week or the beginning of the week after


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## Tatty_One (Dec 27, 2020)

The UK is not looking good at all, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are pretty much in full lockdown from yesterday, some of it because of expected hikes because the people were given Christmas Day with some family, albeit limited, England has the worst of this new more infectious variant, it is believed it is accounting for 60% of all new infections and rising, 90% of England are in very tight restrictions with just 7.5 million (out of England's population of approx. 57 million) in slightly lower restrictions, fortunately for me where I live is currently in an area with those slightly lower restrictions (we currently have 170 cases per 100,000, some areas have 800!) but I have a feeling another national lockdown will be coming within 2 weeks and everything including schools will be closed, in the last 24 hours the UK has had 39,000 new cases, 574 deaths and in several areas of the country there are very few ITU beds left.

This new variant appears to infect far more under 18's than the older variants and is making many of them sicker than the old variants, of the 7000 hospital admissions we have had over the last 5 days apparently 16% of them have been under 18's.


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## delshay (Dec 30, 2020)

Please move to the correct thread if it should not be here. 4HR ago

US reports its first known case of new UK Covid variant (msn.com)


----------



## Caring1 (Dec 30, 2020)

delshay said:


> US reports its first known case of new UK Covid variant (msn.com)


Speculation until they determine the exact strain, as the South African strain is similar.


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## lexluthermiester (Dec 30, 2020)

pcmasterrace said:


> UK variant? come on


That's a real thing. There are several different strains in the wild now.


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## claes (Dec 30, 2020)

The first confirmed U.S. case of the more contagious British variant has been found in Colorado. (Published 2020)
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## the54thvoid (Dec 30, 2020)

I see maps and stats are out of fashion....

This thread for 'discussion' on any other COVID issue.


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## harm9963 (Dec 30, 2020)

People are getting shots ,who shouldn't !


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## lexluthermiester (Dec 31, 2020)

the54thvoid said:


> I see maps and stats are out of fashion....
> 
> This thread for 'discussion' on any other COVID issue.


At this point, with Covid19 being so widespread, mapping it is a bit tedious. The situation has evolved into more of a stats and science tracking effort than anything else.

EDIT;
Thread title changed to reflect current modus operandi.


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## Tatty_One (Jan 2, 2021)

Still not looking good and that's despite very strict restrictions now almost everywhere in the UK, in just 3 days we have gone from this new variant being responsible for 60% of all new cases to 70%.  France and Italy are looking very similar statistically too, god help them if the new variant takes a greater hold …………..


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## harm9963 (Jan 2, 2021)

Nobody  stays six feet apart , especially the young punks !


----------



## HTC (Jan 3, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 77601 active cases --- 9393 more --- 1341.9 more per day
- 342535 recovered --- 22789 more --- 3255.6 more per day
- 7118 fatalities --- 499 more --- 71.3 more per day
- 427254 confirmed infected --- 32681 more --- 4668.7 more per day

- 5641132 tests taken --- 317791 more --- 35310.1 more per day but was last updated December 30th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 94394 under watch --- 2325 more --- 332.1 more per day
- 3044 hospitalized --- 174 more --- 24.9 more per day
- 500 in ICU --- *4 less --- 0.6 less per day*

Was forced to use New Year day's situation report because the "usual report" wasn't published.

New cases have increased significantly per day VS last week: almost 60% per day more. Hospitalized also increased by about 5%, but ICU decreased marginally. Unfortunately the fatalities continue VERY HIGH, also increasing slightly more than last week.

We're now under effect of Christmas holiday restrictions easing but it should get worse due to the New Year's restrictions easing which we aren't under it's effects, just yet. We've also crossed 7K fatalities yesterday


----------



## Tomgang (Jan 5, 2021)

It's not going great in Denmark either any more. The new British mutation of the coronavirus. Has been expanding rapidly in Denmark as well and we are in a full blown lock down again.

Today danish government announced, the more or less last restrictions they have left. Only a litterly ban going outside is what they have left more or less.

They have given up on getting the new virus under control. Instead they used the last restriction, to delay the virus as much as possible until spring and now use the time to vaccinate as many people as possible before this new virus gets a hold on the public and spreading fast.

Danish government said this at the end of the press conference: it is no longer a matter of getting the virus under control, but a race against the time. To delay the virus and vaccinate as many as possible. This is a serious situation l, that will push health care to its limits and more people will lose to the virus and pay with there life.


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## Space Lynx (Jan 5, 2021)

Tomgang said:


> It's not going great in Denmark either any more. The new British mutation of the coronavirus. Has been expanding rapidly in Denmark as well and we are in a full blown lock down again.
> 
> Today danish government announced, the more less last restrictions they have left. Only a litterly ban going outside is what they have left more or less.
> 
> ...



How is Denmark handling it financially? How are the companies that are being shut down surviving?  Just wondering


----------



## Tomgang (Jan 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> How is Denmark handling it financially? How are the companies that are being shut down surviving?  Just wondering


Thanks to Denmark started out with no dedt. We have been able to loan more money from EU and support a massive help package for companies and workers. We still lost jobs, but overall in 2020 we where one of the countries that came out the best in Europe financially. We have not seen many bankruptcy for now actually fever bankruptcy than normal, but when these help packages is stopped. It is expected to see an after match of bankruptcies as companies with an all ready weak economy has been kept alive artificially by the government support.

But over all we have done pretty good so far. But there will be a huge dedt to pay back when all of this is finally over. There will be less welfare as Denmark is so known for to have.

Also in general, danish people have more saved up now than before the pandemic. Cause we are not able to spend money cause of restrictions, so we are especting when we can open up again that a economic recovery can happens pretty fast. After the first wave of virus, in 3Q2020 we had a record economic recovery. Now ruined by the second wave of virus. 

Right now I am more worried about the outcome of this new virus, than the economy.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jan 5, 2021)

Tomgang said:


> Thanks to Denmark started out with no dedt. We have been able to loan more money from EU and support a massive help package for companies and workers. We still lost jobs, but overall in 2020 we where one of the countries that came out the best in Europe financially. We have not seen many bankruptcy for now actually fever bankruptcy than normal, but when these help packages is stopped. It is expected to see an after match of bankruptcies as companies with an all ready weak economy has been kept alive artificially by the government support.
> 
> But over all we have done pretty good so far. But there will be a huge dedt to pay back when all of this is finally over. There will be less welfare as Denmark is so known for to have.
> 
> ...



the most recent mutations in south africa are quite worrying to me. and the fact it seems to be mutating at a rapid pace. it's almost like its sentient aware the vaccine has arrived and its adapting. crazy. will be interesting to see where we are 6-8 months from now. if the vaccine wins out, or the mutations end up making the vaccine irrelevant


----------



## Tomgang (Jan 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> the most recent mutations in south africa are quite worrying to me. and the fact it seems to be mutating at a rapid pace. it's almost like its sentient aware the vaccine has arrived and its adapting. crazy. will be interesting to see where we are 6-8 months from now. if the vaccine wins out, or the mutations end up making the vaccine irrelevant


Yeah the virus mutation from Africa is worry some as well. Now with two critical mutations, more a bound to come. It's just a matter of where and when.

Also another worrying is does the African virus run the vaccine useless or not. 

It is really a run against the clock. Do the vaccine or virus win. 

I can say, danish government are now trying to win time until spring with restrictions and rapid vaccination program. They expect the new virus to be the dominant virus in February and have overtaken from the original virus from around half way in February. By then they hope that they have manage to vaccinate all elderly, weak and sick people as well as Frontline personal in hospitals. So the most important people and those with the biggest risk of serious illness or death are prepared to when the virus will be the dominant version and prevent a dissastor that will cause health care to brake down. An then they hope as we reach spring, warmer and more dry weather will help delay the virus spreading and use spring and summer to vaccinate the rest of the danish people and by the end of this year, have enough people vaccinated so we can begin a more normal life... I hope


----------



## Tatty_One (Jan 5, 2021)

Apparently when this new variant was found in the UK a short while back one of the virologists in the Governments advisory team mentioned that it was the 46th new variant found so far, we do not usually hear about them unless there is a significant change, obviously that one was.


----------



## HTC (Jan 10, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.


       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 106778 active cases --- 29177 more --- 4168.1 more per day
- 369108 recovered --- 26573 more --- 3796.1 more per day
- 7803 fatalities --- 685 more --- 97.9 more per day
- 483689 confirmed infected --- 56435 more --- 8062.1 more per day

- 5956540 tests taken --- 317791 more --- 39801 more per day but was last updated January 7th and it includes antigen tests as well
- under watch --- no longer appears: *replaced with **vaccinated* as of January 8th --- 70000 --- last updated January 8th
- 3770 hospitalized --- 726 more --- 103.7 more per day
- 558 in ICU --- 58 more --- 8.3 more per day

*TREMENDOUS* increases across the board *in ONE WEEK* VS overall: active cases increased by over 27%, recovered increased by almost 7.2%, fatalities increased by almost 8.8%, new cases increased by almost 11.7%, hospitalized increased by over 19% and ICU increased by almost 10.4%: the cost of relaxing both Christmas' day and New Year's day is there for all to see ...

Portugal is *considering* having a lockdown similar to the one we had in March / April, with the exception of schools, which will remain open, starting next Thursday: while students are most definitely the least affected by this virus, they also can spread the virus just as easily as anyone else, which is why i'm strongly opposed to this, personally.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jan 10, 2021)

The main thing that determined the huge success of last Springs 10 week lockdown and last Autumn's (Nov 20) 4 week lockdown, apart from the obvious timeframe was the fact that last spring schools were closed and after 4 weeks numbers were coming down significantly and in November schools were open, November showed after 3 weeks a slowing of infection rates but that was all then we opened up again one week later albeit with fairly strict restrictions, within 2 weeks we were worse than we were before going into that lockdown, the one we are currently in for at least 6 weeks has schools, colleges and universities closed.


----------



## HTC (Jan 10, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> The main thing that determined the huge success of last Springs 10 week lockdown and last Autumn's (Nov 20) 4 week lockdown, apart from the obvious timeframe was the fact that last spring schools were closed and after 4 weeks numbers were coming down significantly and in November schools were open, November showed after 3 weeks a slowing of infection rates but that was all then we opened up again one week later albeit with fairly strict restrictions, within 2 weeks we were worse than we were before going into that lockdown, the one we are currently in for at least 6 weeks has schools, colleges and universities closed.


The problem with open schools during a lockdown is NOT during classes: it's BETWEEN classes as well as entering / leaving schools because those are the times more people are closer together.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jan 10, 2021)

HTC said:


> The problem with open schools during a lockdown is NOT during classes: it's BETWEEN classes as well as entering / leaving schools because those are the times more people are closer together.


As well as the fact that all the teachers go home to their families, shop at supermarkets maybe take public transport to get to work in the urban areas where there are much more people, the potential for wider spread with an already hugely contagious new variant is very risky.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jan 10, 2021)

+12000 vaccinations / day, on ~3000 cases/day.

My sister (medical doctor) has received the 2nd dose. Apparently she's one of the 30%+ cases who got symptoms: "chills to the bone" and so forth. It seems like your body reacts strongly to the 2nd dose... at least by anecdotal evidence. I forgot to ask if it was Pfizer or Moderna.... but since both are mRNA vaccines, they probably have similar effects.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jan 10, 2021)

My wife had her 1st yesterday, woke up this morning with a sore arm, by afternoon it had gone, hers was Pfizer as was my Mother in Laws last month.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jan 10, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> My wife had her 1st yesterday, woke up this morning with a sore arm, by afternoon it had gone, hers was Pfizer as was my Mother in Laws last month.



My sister didn't even get a sore arm from the 1st dose. So these symptoms from the 2nd dose were a surprise.

Hopefully your family will do good on the 2nd dose. Even then, the symptoms went away within a day. But it could be a good idea to take it easy for the day they get the vaccine. Maybe plan a nap or something, just in case.


----------



## claes (Jan 10, 2021)

The second dose is supposed to have stronger side effects than the first IIRC


----------



## Space Lynx (Jan 10, 2021)

claes said:


> The second dose is supposed to have stronger side effects than the first IIRC



I just hope we get lucky and the immunity lasts a lifetime. I believe I read somewhere 100% of all SARS people infected in 2004 (I think it was) which is similar to this virus, still have immunity t-cells after 16 years or something like that.  

However, since covid has already re-infected people twice, both times producing symptoms, I am worried the viruses are not enough alike sadly.  I really hope though, it would be so nice to put this mess behind us as a species.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jan 15, 2021)

Maryland numbers still kinda sucky, but less sucky than last time.

More importantly: the Governor has mentioned that we're receiving 10,000 doses/day, but we're averaging 16000+ injections/day (at least, on the weekdays. It probably slows down over the weekend: I'll double check the numbers tomorrow and through this holiday weekend). There are 6-million people in my state, and 1.5-million of them are priority targets for vaccination (Frontline workers for 1A, Teachers/Inmates/Age 75+ for 1B, and Age 65+, Grocery store workers, Post Office for 1C).

10,000 doses/day means only an average of 5000 people/day to be vaccinated (if we include the 2nd dose needed). The 1.5 million priority target will take ~5 years of vaccinations at this rate.

Clearly, 10,000 doses/day is not enough. We need more vaccine production. For the near future, it will take a very long time to even vaccinate the prioritized population.

I think I've mentioned before: anti-vax attitude is kind of useful right now, since it means that fewer people will want to get vaccinated. Yeah, its short-term thinking on my part, but we've got very, very few vaccines. They're a very limited resource. So if people don't want the vaccine, fine, we'll give first to those who want it.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jan 16, 2021)

New tweet today...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1350461557168246784


> Maryland providers have now administered 245,266 doses of #COVID19 vaccines, including a new record of 24,549 doses in the past 24 hours. This is approximately 2.5 times our average daily federal allocation. Supply is still very limited, and we continue to urge patience.



In the past day, Maryland has gone from ~16,000 injections to ~25,000 injections. However, the doses we're receiving have not really increased.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jan 17, 2021)

I haven't posted MD statistics yet. But I wanted another few days to solidify whether or not we're on the decline (1st derivative).





Its super noisy on the #Cases/day, I don't know if I can make a conclusion from that graph. But %Positive is down from ~9% to ~8%.





7-day moving average has begun to decline, as well as #Hospital Beds. But *very* slightly, I could easily be overinterpreting the movements here, or it could be noise.





As expected, the weekend shows a dramatic slowdown in Vaccine distribution. I guess most of the nurses work Monday-Friday, like the rest of us. With this weekend being a Holiday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday are largely going to be "lost".

With that being said: that's still 7500/day (on Saturday) vaccination jabs, which is a substantial portion of the 10,000/day estimate we receive. Maryland's rollout has been slower than some other states, but we're still arguably going "too fast", since we're going to run out of doses even at this slightly slower rate compared to everyone else in the country. It seems like Maryland is concerned about effectively deploying the 2-dose regimen, while other states are willing to risk 1-dose on large sections of their population.


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## HTC (Jan 17, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 134011 active cases --- 27233 more --- 3890.4 more per day
- 406929 recovered --- 37821 more --- 5403 more per day
- 8861 fatalities --- 1058 more --- 151.1 more per day
- 549801 confirmed infected --- 66112 more --- 9444.6 more per day

- 6247758 tests taken --- 290828 more --- 48469.7 more per day but was last updated January 13th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 106000 vaccinated --- 36000 more --- last updated January 15th
- 4889 hospitalized --- 1119 more --- 159.9 more per day
- 647 in ICU --- 89 more --- 12.7 more per day

*TREMENDOUS* increases across the board *in ONE WEEK*, specially fatalities, hospitalized and new daily cases.

This week, Portugal is leading WORLDWIDE in new daily cases and is 4th in fatalities per million people and, because early presidential voting started today, i'm not sure if it will aggravate further before starting to improve. Judging by the hospitalized sharp increase, it will continue to get worse for a while longer and that's BEFORE the early voting "shows it's effects".


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## HTC (Jan 24, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 169230 active cases --- 35219 more --- 5031.3 more per day
- 456491 recovered --- 49562 more --- 7080.3 more per day
- 10469 fatalities --- 1608 more --- 229.7 more per day
- 636190 confirmed infected --- 86389 more --- 12341.3 more per day

- 6722120 tests taken --- 474362 more --- 59295.3 more per day but was last updated January 21st and it includes antigen tests as well
- 249891 vaccinated --- 143891 more --- last updated today
- 6117 hospitalized --- 1228 more --- 175.4 more per day
- 742 in ICU --- 95 more --- 13.6 more per day

*TREMENDOUS* increases across the board *in ONE WEEK*, specially fatalities, hospitalized and new daily cases: even more pronounced than previous week.

In two weeks, we went from (pics from the previous two weeks' numbers):



 



- an average of 97.9 dead per day, to 151.1 dead per day, to the current 229.7 dead per day: an increase of 234.6%
- an average of 8062 new cases per day, to 9444.6 new cases per day, to the current 12341.3 new cases per day: an increase of 152.6%
- an average of 103.7 new hospitalized per day to 159.9 new hospitalized per day, to the current 175.4 new hospitalized per day: an increase of 169.1%

The biggest increase was fatalities and i believe this is due to the hospitals being too crowded with not enough human resources: something that will increase further because new cases continue to increase too. Our Government is resisting the idea of making a "civil requisition" of doctors / nurses from private hospitals to help the public NHS but it's only a matter of time, IMO.

Today was voting day to elect a new President: though supposedly people were to be social distancing while waiting for their turn to vote, we'll see how that turned out in the next two weeks.

Portugal is on the edge of catastrophe


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## Tatty_One (Jan 24, 2021)

Well, I think our 3rd peak has just about levelled off, positive cases have come down over the last 2 weeks from 60 - 70,000 per day to 30 - 40,000, deaths appear finally to be levelling off and reduce a little as do hospitalisations but that's only a slight downwards trend, all of this off the back of the new variant now being responsible for 80 - 90% of all new infections, this is after 2.5 weeks of lockdown, we are far from out of the woods yet but I will take anything after 4 weeks of sky rocket figures, vaccinations is a mini success story, the fatalities figure below is likely to be low as it's a Sunday so I might get another shock tomorrow...………...


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## dragontamer5788 (Jan 25, 2021)

While the faster spreading UK variant is in USA (and probably Maryland), things are looking fine for now. %Positive has dropped from 9%+ to just under 7%, and what was 3000+/day infections has changed to ~2000/day, and today dropped to 1600 (hopefully that sticks below 2k/day). Hospitalizations have steadily declined over the past two weeks from 1800+ to 1669 today.

The winter holidays really escalated the COVID19 spread dramatically, and it will take weeks to shake that off.





While the state is technically in phase 1C, no county-level municipality has gone beyond phase 1B. In fact, the area where my parents live still seems to be in phase 1A. As such, the "phase 1C" simply *allows* local counties to progress to 1C, but in practice, local counties are holding us back at an earlier level.

Why? Because we haven't vaccinated all of our nurses / doctors yet (aka: Phase 1A), or teachers (Phase 1B). So 1C is not representative of reality, unfortunately.

With that being said: it looks like this week, there will be more vaccines distributed (1st dose) than people who ever got COVID19 in the state. A nice "crossover point" so to speak. Mostly symbolic, but it does mean that the vaccine will be helping more than natural immunity by the end of this week. (For whatever that's worth).


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## harm9963 (Jan 25, 2021)

Billionaire club in bid to curb overpopulation
					

SOME of America's leading billionaires have met secretly to consider how their wealth could be used to slow the growth of the world's population and speed up improvements in health and education.




					www.thetimes.co.uk


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## the54thvoid (Jan 25, 2021)

harm9963 said:


> Billionaire club in bid to curb overpopulation
> 
> 
> SOME of America's leading billionaires have met secretly to consider how their wealth could be used to slow the growth of the world's population and speed up improvements in health and education.
> ...



That meeting was in 2009. News necro.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jan 29, 2021)

Officially dropping below 6% positive today. Hospitalizations are coming down steadily: but not dramatically yet. Deaths are still 35+/day (seemingly unaffected by these declines in stats). Just showing once again: hospitalizations / deaths lag from #Cases and %Positive stats. In the coming weeks, I expect our hospitalization stats to begin to drop dramatically quicker (in line with the %Positive and #Cases numbers). Deaths will probably begin to decline by the 2nd week of February.





The vaccination GUI keeps changing.

Importantly: 32,000 doses received yesterday (!!!). Vaccine distribution cast a much larger net this past week: with not only hospitals / clinics getting vaccines, but also some local grocery stores and pharmacies. I was wondering when we'd see the spike thanks to the wider distribution.

Unfortunately, we only still 10,000 doses/day received, so we're gonna run out once again. We slow down on the weekends though. My father/mother are in the 65+ group, and 1C is beginning to be accepted in various hospitals. But it has been extremely difficult to find the vaccine anywhere in my experience. I'll give it more F5 throughout the weeks. It might be easier to get a GPU than to get a vaccine, lol.


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## HTC (Jan 31, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 181623 active cases --- 12393 more --- 1770 more per day
- 526411 recovered --- 69920 more --- 9989 more per day
- 12482 fatalities --- 2013 more --- 288 more per day
- 720516 confirmed infected --- 84326 more --- 12047 more per day

- 7170615 tests taken --- 448495 more --- 64071 more per day but was last updated January 28th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 336771 vaccinated --- 86880 more --- last updated today but it includes 1st AND 2nd doses
- 6694 hospitalized --- 577 more --- 82 more per day
- 858 in ICU --- 116 more --- 17 more per day

It seems we're beginning to stabilize, judging by hospitalized current curve but, as expected, this doesn't yet translate in daily fatalities which rose significantly this past week, yet again..

Let's hope our Presidential elections didn't ruin it AGAIN, which we should know by the end of next week.


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 3, 2021)

Its the first time #Daily Cases is less than 1000 in multiple months.

Hospitalizations "bounced" by +30 today. Deaths are still 30+ / day (lagging indicator). %Positive is below 6%. It is said that 5% positive is the recommended level when #Cases is somewhat accurate (oooohhh boy, its been a while since we could rely upon #Cases...)

Vaccinations were slow yesterday due to the big snowstorm.





I'm not too concerned about slow vaccinations due to inclement weather (there are several news stories about delayed COVID19 vaccination appointments due to the weather). Even with weather issues, we got nearly 10,000 jabs anyway, so not bad. We have ~6 Million people in our state, which means our population is roughly 7.7% 1st-dose vaccinated.

That's a large enough set that the vaccinations are *probably* beginning to reduce the spread of COVID19 (I don't even know how to test that idea though). Since COVID19 vaccinations are prioritized for the highest risk population (ie: stay-at-home workers are low-priority, while Grocery store workers, Inmates are high-priority). Schools remain closed, but Teachers are high-priority for vaccination.

My parents still haven't been able to find a shot... I've been F5ing around, but probably just checking at the wrong times or something. Maybe I should wakeup earlier and give it a try.

The governor is pushing schools to open by March: the Teacher's unions are refusing in a number of locations. But its probably getting close to the point where schools can reopen safely: as long as Teachers are well vaccinated and students keep masks on (the vaccines are NOT approved below age 16 in the USA, which means that we cannot vaccinate our schoolkids yet). That leaves school as a potential viral vector, but after months without school, the community is clearly reaching a breaking point.


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## harm9963 (Feb 6, 2021)

Oh boy


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## Tatty_One (Feb 6, 2021)

We got the variants here, so far nothing "too much" to be concerned about, apart from a couple are more infectious, the UK variant (which has now also a new hybrid variant based on it) has been under the microscope since it was first detected back in September and the South African variant which has been studied since November appear to still get a positive response from the existing Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccine's, albeit with a little less efficacy. AstraZeneca as part of their phase 3 human trials have been working in South Africa and used their vaccine to trial on thousands of patients there so we should get a clearer picture soon, I think the Brazilian strain has the most ??? against it currently.  The link below talks about the Pfizer vaccine also ...............

Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine Equally Effective Against Covid Variant - Bloomberg


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## Space Lynx (Feb 6, 2021)

This thread makes me wish I could find a remote job, buy a camper van, and get Starlink internet.


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 6, 2021)

harm9963 said:


> Oh boy



We're already at 8.9% vaccinated (1st dose) in the USA (24% of the prioritized, higher-risk population). 30-million vaccinated.

The vaccine is spreading much more rapidly than the virus right now. Yeah, its slower than we'd like, but in 2 or 3 months, we're reasonably looking at 30%ish of the USA's population vaccinated.

UK variant may be much more infectious: but it will be facing:

* Springtime weather -- People will start to meet outside, instead of inside. The sun's stronger UV rays, the humidity, the heat... these things are known to kill the virus. Sitting indoors with recycled air is what makes the virus spread so much in the winter. The fresh air of the outdoors also makes it harder for the virus to build up in any location.

* Masks -- Masks will still be required in public, because not enough of the population was vaccinated yet for herd immunity. Unlike April 2020, April 2021 has a smarter population, with the mask debate largely settled (yeah, some anti-maskers are still around. But they aren't denying the existance of the virus anymore).

* Vaccines -- With AstraZeneca and J&J releasing their vaccines soon, vaccination rate will skyrocket. Especially in rural-areas (because AstraZeneca / J&J are "normal refrigerator" temperatures. Not -80C or -30C like Pfizer or Moderna). Our prioritized population will be largely vaccinated (75+ and 65+ populations), meaning death-rates and hospitalizations will drop dramatically. J&J's vaccine isn't very effective (only ~66% or so), but J&J prevented 100% of its deaths and hospitalizations. So people will still get sick, but our hospitals probably won't be overrun.

------------

South Africa and Brazil aren't "more infectious". They just avoid the immunity that we've built up. Vaccines are less effective (but vaccines *still* work). The question is whether or not a major-mutation that avoids the vaccine becomes prevalent. Nonetheless, the plan to make "booster shots" to protect against these variants has already taken place.

Don't get me wrong: P1 (Brazilian Variant) is worrisome. But its not COVID19 per se. P1 is starting at 0% infected around the world. P1 needs to replicate and grow and spread still. Its population is likely very, very small. We have time to prepare against P1.


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 6, 2021)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/05/virus-variant-reinfection-south-africa/
		




> In the placebo group of the trial for Novavax’s vaccine, people with prior coronavirus infections appeared just as likely to get sick as people without them, meaning they weren’t fully protected against the B.1.351 variant that has swiftly become dominant in South Africa. The variant has been detected only a handful of times in the United States, including a case reported Friday in Virginia, which became the third state to identify the presence of the virus variant.





> “The data really are quite suggestive: The level of immunity that you get from natural infection — either the degree of immunity, the intensity of the immunity or the breadth of immunity — is obviously not enough to protect against infection with the mutant,” Fauci said.



So both B.1.351 (South Africa) and P1 (Brazil) avoid natural-immunity, and can reinfect those who achieved immunity from the original COVID19. So I hope that's the final nail in the coffin for "just open up and achieve herd immunity naturally". Natural immunity does jack diddly squat for the variants.


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## HTC (Feb 7, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.


       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 145090 active cases --- *36533 less --- 5219 less per day*
- 606166 recovered --- 79755 more --- 11394 more per day
- 14158 fatalities --- 1676 more --- 239 more per day
- 765414 confirmed infected --- 44898 more --- 6414 more per day

- 7525732 tests taken --- 355117 more --- 50731 more per day but was last updated February 4th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 395904 vaccinated --- 59133 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 291378 1st doses + 104526 2nd doses
- 6248 hospitalized --- *446 less --- 64 less per day*
- 865 in ICU --- 7 more --- 1 more per day

The usual report wasn't published on February 2nd so i had to use that day's situation report instead.

Hospitalized FINALLY started to decrease, judging by the graph but it's still WAY TOO HIGH. It peaked midweek @ nearly 6900 before dropping to the current value. ICU is a bit more difficult to judge but it peaked Friday @ 904 before dropping to current value though it's a bit early to judge if it's starting to drop as well: next few days should give a clearer picture.

There was a dramatic drop in active cases as well as new daily cases, with the new daily case average over the last 7 days dropping from just over 12K to just over 6.4K: clear signs the current lockdown is working but, and because the starting point of this lockdow was very high, it will take some time for the numbers to drop to a much more reasonable level "across the board".

We've also crossed the 14K fatalities since the beginning of the Pandemic


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## Space Lynx (Feb 8, 2021)

HTC said:


> Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.
> 
> View attachment 187421 View attachment 187422 View attachment 187423 View attachment 187424 View attachment 187425 View attachment 187426 View attachment 187427 View attachment 187428
> 
> ...



Once the majority of 60+ older people get the pfizer or moderna vaccine, I think we will begin to see death rates plummet to almost nothing. AstraZeneca and J&J vaccine just aren't effective enough against the south africa and brazil variants. I really wish countries from around the world could just be video conferenced into Pfizer/Moderna factory production, so every country could begin exact replication over night... in mass sized facilities. I know it will never happen that way, but I think the pandemic could end fast if we did that as a species. Militaries of each nation building giant warehouses and ventilation systems within those buildings - and Pfizer and Moderna walking them through each step via online.  With wartime mobilization enabled, I think it would be possible -if this plan was enacted- that those who want a pfizer or moderna vaccine based vaccine could have it within end of June. Those who don't want the vaccine that is fine, main thing is getting those vulnerable protected as fast as possible. I'm honestly surprised this wasn't done right after pfizer announced its 95% effective rate. I'm pretty sure this is one of those rare times in history, companies would be willing to accept government money for open rights to the vaccine recipe.  


dragontamer5788 said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/05/virus-variant-reinfection-south-africa/
> 
> 
> 
> ...



My grandpa gets his second dose of Moderna today!!! So happy. I'm hoping I can get my vaccine by end of August or September, I would prefer end of April, but old and vulnerable need to come first.


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## purecain (Feb 8, 2021)

The hardest part about using any of these apps is the fact that Doctors are putting down covid as a cause of death on most elderly deaths. So the stats are not as bad in reality.
There are many other irregularities but this is not the place to post about those kinds of details. 
In the UK we havnt had one case of the Flu since Covid 19. ^^
Not to worry anyone, but the virus will of mutated many times since the vaccine was formulated. I cant understand there being a vaccine after being told that you cant treat a virus (as it mutates) and that you just have to go through the motions. Its very worrying also if you have studied history and remember the Spanish flu and what it really was.


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## Space Lynx (Feb 8, 2021)

purecain said:


> The hardest part about using any of these apps is the fact that Doctors are putting down covid as a cause of death on most elderly deaths. So the stats are not as bad in reality.



you sound like that guy that says only people with underlying conditions are dying... yeah people with bad diabetes that might have lived 20+ more years are dying because of their underlying condition of diabetes or high blood pressure sometimes, but covid accelerated that death timeline... those "old" people might have lived longer we don't know, but in order to be counted as covid death they still had to test positive for covid.  so it's true some of the numbers won't be accurate, I agree with you on that, but I disagree in the sense the numbers are still way higher than you are claiming. 



purecain said:


> In the UK we havnt had one case of the Flu since Covid 19. ^^



It kind of makes sense, since flu is stopped by less traveling, masks, etc. Flu always hits Australia/Asia regions first, and they had almost none due to covid measures put in place. so yeah fast forward to now it would make sense it would not have spread nearly as much.


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## qubit (Feb 8, 2021)

covid sucks big time. 

Sorry, just sounding off.


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## the54thvoid (Feb 8, 2021)

purecain said:


> The hardest part about using any of these apps is the fact that Doctors are putting down covid as a cause of death on most elderly deaths. So the stats are not as bad in reality.
> There are many other irregularities but this is not the place to post about those kinds of details.
> In the UK we havnt had one case of the Flu since Covid 19. ^^
> Not to worry anyone, but the virus will of mutated many times since the vaccine was formulated. I cant understand there being a vaccine after being told that you cant treat a virus (as it mutates) and that you just have to go through the motions. Its very worrying also if you have studied history and remember the Spanish flu and what it really was.



For the UK, as of some point last year (which actually 'reduced' recorded Covid deaths) only those who have died AND had a positive Covid diagnosis in the prior 28 days have Covid registered on their death certificate. This dropped the UK's numbers by about 5,000 when it was about 50k IIRC.

Flu deaths are lower than normal but not anywhere near zero. The ONS has stats for this and the figures for January to August 2020 state 14,000 flu deaths. That contrasts to 48,000 registred as Covid (Jan-Aug). So clearly, your sources for flu are more than wrong, they're completely bogus.

As for the vague statement on the Spanish Flu, it was the H1N1 influenza virus with avian origins (source). 

As far as vaccines for viral mutations; the flu jab is one such thing. Without it, there would be far higher flu deaths on an annual basis. Closer, likely, to Covid levels, as flu is pretty nasty for the elderly and immuno-suppressed.

I'd also remind all that this is a science forum and as such, science only please. No conspiracy clap-trap, no guff. If you read it on a FB post that can't be properly sourced, or you don't believe what you read because the Illuminati are behind it, I suggest you don't post in this science forum (unless of course you have legitimae data, or proof, to support it).


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 8, 2021)

Speaking of Flu... The US has plenty of information on the flu.






						National, Regional, and State Level Outpatient Illness and Viral Surveillance
					






					gis.cdc.gov
				







The US has gone from 3200 flu-cases a week (2019) to 24 flu-cases a week (2021). The lockdown is working vs the flu it seems. Notice: these surveys of Flu are able to differentiate between A (H1N1) (bird-flu / spanish flu), A(H3) (Swine Flu), type B and all sorts of flu types. This isn't a case of "covid19 is getting confused for the flu", this is "we really don't have a lot of flu in the US right now".


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## Space Lynx (Feb 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Speaking of Flu... The US has plenty of information on the flu.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's not just the USA lockdown that is lowering flu numbers, it's the world as a whole, as I mentioned before the flu starts off every year in Asia/Australia regions, and since their lockdowns were so strict, combined with flying overall being majorly down, more people wearing masks worldwide, and not as spreadable as covid is - increased use of hand sanitizer worldwide, etc etc etc - it all makes sense that the flu is very very low in number. Covid is not very low in number because it spreads so much easier than flu.  I just don't want the USA to get credit for reduced flu numbers, when in actuality that is a world effort.


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 11, 2021)

Just for my state. We're a bit slower than other states. We are missing a "single sign up" website, prisoners have been prioritized here and lots of decisions that other states haven't done.

Still, from a pure rollout perspective, it seems like we're finally accelerating. Only 12,000 doses/day are being received however (up 20% since a few weeks ago). So for this 25k/day rate to continue, it assumes that future deliveries will be faster than our current rate.


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## Tatty_One (Feb 11, 2021)

The UK set a target to vaccinate (or to offer vaccinations) to everyone aged 70+, all those that are chronically vulnerable, all healthcare workers and all Care home residents and staff, some 15.6 million people by 15th Feb, that works out at around 23 or 24% of the population, seems we are likely to do it by next Monday as today we exceeded 13.5 million, something at least is working well


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 12, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> The UK set a target to vaccinate (or to offer vaccinations) to everyone aged 70+, all those that are chronically vulnerable, all healthcare workers and all Care home residents and staff, some 15.6 million people by 15th Feb, that works out at around 23 or 24% of the population, seems we are likely to do it by next Monday as today we exceeded 13.5 million, something at least is working well



I've heard that the UK is a world-leader in terms of vaccinations. Good job!

We here in the US are ~10% or 11%, not quite "world leader" speeds but adequate.





My specific state has finally dipped below 5% positive, an arbitrary benchmark but an important one... It's been said that 5% positive (or less) is required to have an accurate #Confirmed case statistic. So its good to hear that our #Confirmed Cases are finally looking accurate again. Deaths and Hospitalizations are still very high, but again: those are lagging indicators of the virus.

Good news: I finally got my mom a vaccination date. Unfortunately, all slots filled up before I could hit F5 and get a slot for my dad.


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## Tatty_One (Feb 12, 2021)

It's difficult to be a world leader regarding this topic when you have such a large population and limited supplies, we are only where we are because apparently we placed orders for 240 million doses across what was then 6 potential vaccines 3 months ahead of anyone else on this side of the pond ...... allegedly.

We are on 14.1 million first doses as of the last 24 hours.


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 12, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> It's difficult to be a world leader regarding this topic when you have such a large population and limited supplies, we are only where we are because apparently we placed orders for 240 million doses across what was then 6 potential vaccines 3 months ahead of anyone else on this side of the pond ...... allegedly.
> 
> We are on 14.1 million first doses as of the last 24 hours.



I mean, placing an order for 4-doses per person takes foresight and guts. And in hindsight: that's really useful for getting your population vaccinated. Afterwards, the doses won't be "wasted" because you can sell them off to other countries who are lagging behind.

US didn't even place an order for 2-doses per person last year (I think the US only aimed for 2-doses per eligible person: children weren't tested yet so we didn't buy doses for them last year). So... yeah. I think I would have preferred if the previous administration spent more money on getting more doses than needed. (Or even optimistically ordering doses for children, long before children were tested). Now that the child-tests are going well (we're realistically looking at child-vaccinations by the start of the 2021-2022 school year), the US is buying up to the 600-million doses for everybody (including children). But we're just going to be naturally slower than other countries (like the UK) who bought in far more aggressively.

There's probably something about "tragedy of the commons" if all countries hopped in and over-bought the pool of vaccines... and international relationships and all that. So I'm not entirely sure what the international agreements were with regards to vaccine distribution. Honestly, I haven't thought about the international perspective until today. Clearly its a problem that should be worked out between the leaders of our country.

But in the absence of such an agreement, looking out for your own population and oversubscribing your vaccine doses seems to be beneficial. At least for this month. EDIT: I guess back then, we didn't know if the vaccines were effective yet. So it could have been a waste if the test trials went poorly.


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## Space Lynx (Feb 13, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> It's difficult to be a world leader regarding this topic when you have such a large population and limited supplies, we are only where we are because apparently we placed orders for 240 million doses across what was then 6 potential vaccines 3 months ahead of anyone else on this side of the pond ...... allegedly.
> 
> We are on 14.1 million first doses as of the last 24 hours.



Yep, I think since Boris had a rough go of covid himself he realized the seriousness of it quicker than most and decided to go all in on the vaccines before anyone else - which is a bi-partisan effort for the UK - in USA it's too contentious to do anything bi-partisan. Since Trump got the Regeneron anti-bodies that made him feel like superman (which this medicine still isn't available for anyone but the elites or ultra rich) it only inflated his ego even more about how weak the virus was, undermining any of the nuance deep thought that Boris had after his bout with it.

I think if UK were smart they would ban all international travel until end of summer, they still allow people from South Africa as long as those people pay 1700 pounds and stay in hotel for two weeks, I'm sorry, but that's not enough pre-caution, not when the main/majority vaccine UK is using only has 22% efficacy rate against the South Africa variant. It's absolutely mind-blowing they are willing to undermine their vaccine efforts for travelers regardless of reason of travel. 

They should instead have a UK focused plan, be like alright this virus is hell. Here is the new plan, all UK Citizens get vaccinated, no travels for you or anyone coming in, we are doing isolation - and with isolation comes a free maskless summer for all of us - see your country, travel in the UK only, go to somewhere you have never been in the UK. See the wonders it has to offer, and you won't even have to wear a mask if we reach 80% vaccine rate. 

Not sure about you, but that's a hell of a deal imo, otherwise you are looking at masks forever and constant periodic closures at random from spikes and mutations and god knows what else. UK is unique in the sense it is an island nation and can isolate and dictate its future easier than the pangea that is the rest of us.


----------



## Tatty_One (Feb 13, 2021)

Additionally, it may not be quite as much in terms of over dosage as it appears as we are already sending some vaccines to British Commonwealth territories, not all of them yet but trying to help the poorest of them, also I suppose at the point of order which I agree was risky none of us had any idea at what frequency any of these vaccines might be needed, there is even some talk now that some of the population like the most elderly and those with chronic underlying conditions may need a "booster" in the late Autumn or early winter, we have also said that we will donate a large part of any 2021 surplus to 3rd world African countries.

As for borders, I agree we should be more stringent but in terms of countries like South Africa, we are only letting UK nationals into the UK, some of which have either visited family over there (so if they have a home here they can quarantine at home) or are coming here to visit family (so before they can visit family they have to quarantine in allocated hotels at their own expense) but they have to have citizenship, of 33 countries that are considered high risk (Brazil obviously included) that rule stands and none but British nationals are allowed in.  For all other countries people visiting have to quarantine in those hotels and as well as having proof of a negative test taken within 72 hours of flying, the will be required again at their own expense to have a test on day 2 and day 8 of enforced hotel quarantine.

But yes, I would probably close all borders for a period, probably just until the end of March initially but I think it is against international law to prevent your own citizens entry under most circumstances.


----------



## HTC (Feb 14, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 105119 active cases --- *39971 less --- 5710 less per day*
- 606166 recovered --- 59150 more --- 8450 more per day
- 14158 fatalities --- 1163 more --- 166 more per day
- 765414 confirmed infected --- 20342 more --- 2906 more per day

- 7766169 tests taken --- 240989 more --- 34427 more per day but was last updated February 11th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 523349 vaccinated --- 127445 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 328819 1st doses + 194530 2nd doses
- 4826 hospitalized --- *1422 less --- 203 less per day*
- 795 in ICU --- *70 less --- 10 less per day*

The usual report wasn't published on February 8th so i had to use that day's situation report instead.

Hospitalized had a significant decrease, as shown in the picture's graph, but it's still WAY TOO HIGH. ICU is also dropping but to a much lesser extent, as expected. Even though daily fatalities dropped significantly, with still over 1K deaths per week, we crossed 15K fatalities 3 days ago 

There was another slightly less dramatic drop in active cases as well as VERY BIG DROP in new daily cases, with the new daily case average over the last 7 days dropping by well over 50%.

Severe lockdowns DO WORK but the key is the starting point: the bigger the starting point is in cases, the longer the lockdown will need to be in place. Instead of judging from new daily cases, i think we should base ease of restrictions on the number in ICU as that number is the 2nd to last number to see bigger fluctuations, with the last one being daily deaths.

Although there was a big uptick in the number of vaccinations, this is deceptive because the 1st dose number had a small increase when compared to the 2nd dose number: 12.85% VS 86.11% respectively. We still have less than 3.3% of the population with the 1st dose. and less than 2% with the 2nd dose.


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## Tatty_One (Feb 14, 2021)

The UK has today administered 15.1 million vaccines and has met it's deadline with a day to spare, that's everyone in the population offered a vaccine who are 70+, healthcare workers, social care workers and all residents of care homes plus those with the most severe chronic underlying conditions this amounts to approx 27.5% of the population, to date the uptake for the vaccine so far has been approx 97.9% (excluding those whom through medical reasons were advised not to have it at this time), the plan now is to vaccinate everyone aged 50 to 69 plus all of the rest of the population with less severe underlying conditions by the end of April, the longer term plan is to have every adult offered a vaccine before the Autumn.

After 5.5 weeks of lockdown we saw our numbers peak around 20th January at that point we had 39.5k in hospital with Covid-19. 60-70,000 new infections daily along with a daily average of 1200 - 1600 deaths, what HTC mentions in his post above is correct, the higher the numbers at the point of lockdown pretty much determine the length of lockdown before numbers fall significantly enough to be managed in less intrusive ways, as of today we still have 23,500 hospitalisations, 11000 new cases and 258 deaths (which is likely to increase tomorrows figure because of the weekend), schools are due back starting 8th March and thereafter the lockdown may be eased incrementally up until our Easter period, if things still move in a downward trend of course.


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 15, 2021)

A preliminary report of a randomized controlled phase 2 trial of the safety and immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine
					

Vaccines are urgently needed to prevent the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We assessed the safety and …




					www.sciencedirect.com
				




Moderna has a 100ug dose. This new study suggests a 50ug dose is just as effective.

IIRC, Pfizer has a 30uG dose.

If half doses are just as effective, then we probably should cut down on the dose so that more people can get vaccinated.

Note: we are also dangerously low on low dead space needles, necessary to save precious fluid and extract more doses out of the same vials. Doubling the supply of vaccines without doubling the needle count would be a mistake. This whole vaccination thing is complicated...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Feb 16, 2021)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview
					

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.




					www.webmd.com
				






> MONDAY, Nov. 2, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- The coronavirus and the flu are two entirely different viruses. But a new study suggests those who get a flu vaccine face a considerably lower risk for being hospitalized if and when they get COVID-19.
> 
> The findings are based on an analysis of electronic health records for 2,000 COVID-19 patients. All had tested positive for the virus at some point between this past March and August. And just over 10% of the patients had previously been vaccinated for the flu.





> "COVID patients who had _not _received a flu vaccine within the last year had 2.4 times greater odds of being hospitalized and 3.3 times greater chance of being transferred to the ICU," said Yang, a third-year resident in family medicine in the department of community health and family medicine at the University of Florida in Gainesville.





> As to how a vaccine for an entirely different virus might offer such protection, Yang said the jury is still out. Also, the study did not prove that a flu vaccine actually caused the risk of severe COVID-19 to drop, just that there was an association.
> 
> "Unfortunately, we do not know why the flu vaccine would have this beneficial side effect," he said. "Our study did not look at this specifically. [But] if one looks at the available scientific studies, we can guess that the flu vaccine might increase natural killer cell activity, a type of immune cell that has been shown to target cancer and cells infected by viruses."



Ah right... Natural Killer cells. Those are the ones who can detect viruses / cancer better because they're super-paranoid and constantly scanning your own cells.





Yeah. That one.

The general theory is that all vaccinations heighten your "general immune system" and makes your body more stressed. A stressed body will make more natural killer cells and just make your own body more paranoid about itself... at least temporarily for some time.

------

Note that those who receive a proper COVID19 vaccines have a near 0% hospitalization or death rate. So this flu-vaccine to protect against COVID19 is... very minimal in efficacy compared to using the proper vaccine for the proper purpose. This is more of a curiosity: possibly something that will make COVID19 vaccines vs variants more difficult to properly assess.

A normal Killer T Cell must be "activated" and only really detects the specific virus it was activated against. A flu-vaccine may activate Killer T Cells but such activated cells probably won't have any effect vs COVID19. Natural Killer cells may have a degree of crossover between both the flu and COVID19 however. Still a big mystery, but an interesting stat nonetheless. And note to self: I'll have to find whoever named these cells and stab them. "Natural Killer" vs "Killer T" for two different cells is an idiotic naming scheme.









						Cytotoxic T cell - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				









						Natural killer T cell - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				












						Natural killer cell - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Tatty_One (Feb 16, 2021)

If accurate, this may possibly be why in this 3rd wave the UK are seeing that the average age of those that get hospitalised has decreased, many more 40+ (32% more than 1st wave) are getting more severe infection and a little less over 60's are being hospitalised (-14%), I say this because normally the flu vaccine is offered to health workers and those that are 70+ but this time around in the autumn they lowered the age to 60+ and encouraged them to have the flu jab, not because of Covid but to help minimise serious flu cases during the pandemic, I am therefore happy to report that I had the flu jab!


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 21, 2021)

This past week, there has been a snowstorm in the region, causing cancellations as well as missed shipments of vaccine.

As a result, it seems like the 2nd-dose appointments were prioritized, so for the first time... I'm seeing higher 2nd dose treatments than 1st dose treatments.


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## HTC (Feb 22, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 82341 active cases --- *22778 less --- 3254 less per day*
- 665316 recovered --- 33906 more --- 4844 more per day
- 15962 fatalities --- 641 more --- 92 more per day
- 7977384 confirmed infected --- 11769 more --- 1681 more per day

- 7766169 tests taken --- 210663 more --- 30095 more per day but was last updated February 18th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 656411 vaccinated --- 133062 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 413482 1st doses + 242929 2nd doses
- 3316 hospitalized --- *1510 less --- 216 less per day*
- 638 in ICU --- *157 less --- 22 less per day*

The usual report wasn't published on February 15th and yesterday's had errors in hospitalized and ICU so i had to use those day's situation report instead.

Hospitalized had a significant decrease, as shown in the picture's graph, but it's still VERY HIGH and ICU also dropped significantly. Daily fatalities dropped tremendously, with less than 100 fatalities for the 3rd consecutive day, but we're closing in on 16K fatalities, which will happen today


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 22, 2021)

Below 1000 hospitalizations, for the first time in many months.


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## Space Lynx (Feb 22, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Below 1000 hospitalizations, for the first time in many months.
> 
> View attachment 189518



I really think once everyone 40+ has a moderna/pfizer vaccine we may indeed get back to a normal mode of life. im still shocked the rest of the world doesn't ask for the right to moderna and pfizer specific kind of vaccine and guidance on how to make it. when we learned 95% efficacy on pfizer, the world should have went into pedal to the medal 5th gear.


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## kapone32 (Feb 22, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I really think once everyone 40+ has a moderna/pfizer vaccine we may indeed get back to a normal mode of life. im still shocked the rest of the world doesn't ask for the right to moderna and pfizer specific kind of vaccine and guidance on how to make it. when we learned 95% efficacy on pfizer, the world should have went into pedal to the medal 5th gear.


The greed co efficient


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 22, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I really think once everyone 40+ has a moderna/pfizer vaccine we may indeed get back to a normal mode of life. im still shocked the rest of the world doesn't ask for the right to moderna and pfizer specific kind of vaccine and guidance on how to make it. when we learned 95% efficacy on pfizer, the world should have went into pedal to the medal 5th gear.



There are a fair number of people in my social circle who want to wait for a more traditional vaccine.

The anti-vax movement is in full swing, and hearing that this mRNA based vaccine has only been around for ~1 year (really), reduces general confidence across the board. There's a wide spectrum of opinions from fully anti-vax to pro-science trust: plenty of people are willing to take a "traditional" vaccine but not an mRNA one.

There's also benefits in allowing diversity of vaccines. mRNA may not work in some future virus, while these other traditional vaccines may work (or vice versa). We shouldn't get tunnel-vision on just one vaccine type.

------

That being said: if the Pfizer / Moderna vaccines were available to me, I'd take it immediately. In fact, I'd take any vaccine as soon as it were offered to me.


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## Tatty_One (Feb 22, 2021)

We have loads of Pfizer but Moderna not before the spring, obviously AstraZeneca is a more "Natural" vaccine and is slightly more prevalent in terms of supply currently over here and for whatever reason it seems most would prefer AstraZeneca, personally I could not care less, we are at a third of the population 1st jab vaccinated now and we have  brought the program forward so all 50+ by the end of next month and the entire adult population by July latest, I should get the call in the next week or two.

Uptake has thus far been amazing, I expect that to go down a little as we move through the younger age ranges but I am willing to bet a months military pension that overall it will be a minimum of 80% uptake and more likely nearer 90%.


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## dragontamer5788 (Feb 22, 2021)

Pfizer-BioNTech Shot Stops Covid Spread, Israeli Study Shows
					






					www.bloomberg.com
				






> The vaccine, which is being rolled out in a national immunization program that began Dec. 20, was 89.4% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed infections, according to a copy of a draft publication that was posted on Twitter and confirmed by a person familiar with the work. The companies worked with Israel’s Health Ministry on the preliminary observational analysis, which wasn’t peer-reviewed. Some scientists disputed its accuracy.



There we go. So Pfizer prevents the spread by 89%+, at least by a draft prepub Israeli study. This is an expected result, but there are a ton of anti-vaxxers who were waiting for this confirmation and still arguing "vaccine isn't proven to stop the spread". So that's at least one more leg of the anti-vax argument demolished (pending review etc. etc., but... this is an expected result. It seems unlikely that they made a mistake with the calculations).

The FDA-trials in the USA only tested to see if hospitalizations and/or symptoms were prevented. This Israeli study is one of the first studies that actually tests the "spread" of the virus against recipients of the vaccine. (FDA-trials only need to prove efficacy and safety before a drug is deployed to the population... and are laser-focused on those two questions. Other questions, such as "stopping the spread" are left unanswered until other studies come by.)


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## HTC (Feb 28, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.


       

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 69268 active cases --- *13073 less --- 1868 less per day*
- 718977 recovered --- 53661 more --- 7666 more per day
- 16317 fatalities --- 355 more --- 51 more per day
- 804562 confirmed infected --- 7037 more --- 1005 more per day

- 8200169 tests taken --- 434000 more --- 54250 more per day but was last updated February 26th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 861922 vaccinated --- 205511 more --- last updated yesterday but that corresponds to 596812 1st doses + 265110 2nd doses
- 2165 hospitalized --- *1151 less --- 164 less per day*
- 484 in ICU --- *154 less --- 22 less per day*

The usual report was always published except on February 21st but it would always "refuse to load properly" except February 23rd, with missing values in either one place or another, so i was forced to use those day's situation report instead.

Hospitalized had another significant decrease and now have fewer hospitalized than when the 3rd wave began, and ICU also dropped significantly, though it' still WAY TOO HIGH. Daily fatalities dropped tremendously again but we're still with the equivalent of over 1600 daily fatalities if we had USA's population, which is STILL TOO HIGH. We also crossed 800K infected cases on February 24th.


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## Tatty_One (Feb 28, 2021)

As of the last 24 hours the UK reports 7,434 new cases, 290 fatalities and 14,808 hospitalised, expect this to skew Tuesdays figures because of less extensive reporting at weekends, I suppose a more accurate measure would be 7 day daily averages which are:

Fatalities - 334
New cases - 9,263
Hospitalisation - 14,808

England now has a 4 stage road map out of lockdown commencing on 8th March with schools returning and ending on 21st June (earliest) at which point there will be no restrictions, this is all obviously determined by the continued diminishing stats.

We should also hit one third of the Adult population of the UK having at least their 1st jab by Tuesday.


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## HTC (Feb 28, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> We should also hit one third of the Adult population of the UK having at least their 1st jab by Tuesday.



We're roughly @ 6% with 1st dose and @ 2.6% with 2nd dose.


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## Space Lynx (Feb 28, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> As of the last 24 hours the UK reports 7,434 new cases, 290 fatalities and 14,808 hospitalised, expect this to skew Tuesdays figures because of less extensive reporting at weekends, I suppose a more accurate measure would be 7 day daily averages which are:
> 
> Fatalities - 334
> New cases - 9,263
> ...



schools last until june 21st in england? omg that would be horrible. that is one of the few things i like about america, late may through early august is summers off for kids. man those were the glory days. good times indeed.



we are getting there. i really think the world is going to be a much better place once everyone 60 and older get the vaccine...  what a wild ride its been!


HTC said:


> We're roughly @ 6% with 1st dose and @ 2.6% with 2nd dose.


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## Tatty_One (Feb 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> schools last until june 21st in england? omg that would be horrible. that is one of the few things i like about america, late may through early august is summers off for kids. man those were the glory days. good times indeed.
> 
> 
> 
> we are getting there. i really think the world is going to be a much better place once everyone 60 and older get the vaccine...  what a wild ride its been!


Schools back is phase 1 of 4 on 8th March, keeping things simple phase 2 starts 29th March but all that does is allows up to 6 people or 2 households to meet outside and in gardens (remembering we have been in a full lockdown since 4th Jan), 14th April sees non essential retail open as well as outdoor hospitality, gym's and hairdressers etc, this also includes holidays for a single household in England but only in self contained accommodation that have their own facilities, 17th May sees indoor hospitality and holidays broadened with 21st June (by coincidence my birthday), all restrictions lifted, I think this date is also a realistic objective to get the whole adult population at least 1st jab vaccinated.

@HTC  I can only guess at this stage that a contributing factor to your vaccination status is the negative PR around the AstraZenica vaccine which is madness, if people were given a choice in the UK the majority would opt for AZ, apparently there are stockpiles of millions in Italy, France & Germany unused.


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## Space Lynx (Feb 28, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Schools back is phase 1 of 4 on 8th March, keeping things simple phase 2 starts 29th March but all that does is allows up to 6 people or 2 households to meet outside and in gardens (remembering we have been in a full lockdown since 4th Jan), 14th April sees non essential retail open as well as outdoor hospitality, gym's and hairdressers etc, this also includes holidays for a single household in England but only in self contained accommodation that have their own facilities, 17th May sees indoor hospitality and holidays broadened with 21st June (by coincidence my birthday), all restrictions lifted, I think this date is also a realistic objective to get the whole adult population at least 1st jab vaccinated.
> 
> @HTC  I can only guess at this stage that a contributing factor to your vaccination status is the negative PR around the AstraZenica vaccine which is madness, if people were given a choice in the UK the majority would opt for AZ, apparently there are stockpiles of millions in Italy, France & Germany unused.



that full lockdown would be a heck of a lot more effective if Boris would just wise up and realize international travel is the main issue... New Zealand stopped international flights I believe for the longest time, it was the only way to truly stop its spread:

posted 2 hours ago:









						Up to six cases of Manaus variant of coronavirus detected in UK
					

Up to six cases of a highly transmissible variant of coronavirus first identified in the Brazilian city of Manaus have been detected in Britain for the first time, English health officials said on Sunday.




					www.reuters.com
				




and if you read the article one of those people had contact with several other people, and visited several places while most likely contagious... so yeah... full lockdown... i don't know what that means exactly when stuff like this can happen so easily...


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## HTC (Feb 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> that full lockdown would be a heck of a lot more effective if Boris would just wise up and realize international travel is the main issue... New Zealand stopped international flights I believe for the longest time, it was the only way to truly stop its spread:
> 
> posted 2 hours ago:
> 
> ...



And that's why 14 day quarantines after flights are necessary: to make sure any potential infected doesn't have the chance to spread the virus to the locals.



Tatty_One said:


> @HTC  I can only guess at this stage that a contributing factor to your vaccination status is the negative PR around the AstraZenica vaccine which is madness, *if people were given a choice in the UK the majority would opt for AZ, apparently there are stockpiles of millions in Italy, France & Germany unused.*



Really????


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## Space Lynx (Feb 28, 2021)

HTC said:


> And that's why 14 day quarantines after flights are necessary: to make sure any potential infected doesn't have the chance to spread the virus to the locals.
> 
> 
> 
> Really????



I thought the UK was using AZ vaccine? in full force?  and yes there are millions being unused as most of those countries say AZ is unsafe on old people only, so they ended up not using the deliveries they got for some reason, at least that is what I read.

but if 14 day quarantines are required than how was this person who was contagious able to spread this new Brazil variant as recently as last week of this UK variant? something isn't working.










						AstraZeneca vaccine may not go to older people, EU medicines chief suggests
					

European Medicines Agency approval could stipulate age range, says Emer Cooke




					www.theguardian.com


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## the54thvoid (Feb 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I thought the UK was using AZ vaccine? in full force?  and yes there are millions being unused as most of those countries say AZ is unsafe on old people only, so they ended up not using the deliveries they got for some reason, at least that is what I read.
> 
> but if 14 day quarantines are required than how was this person who was contagious able to spread this new Brazil variant as recently as last week of this UK variant? something isn't working.
> 
> ...



We're using a mix of Pfizer and AZ. My mum got Pfizer.


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## Space Lynx (Feb 28, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> We're using a mix of Pfizer and AZ. My mum got Pfizer.



looks like pfizer is the one i want according to latest UK study. since i have already had covid.










						Single Pfizer vaccine shot provides strong protection for those who've had Covid-19, UK studies suggest | CNN
					

Just one dose of Pfizer/BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine can induce a strong enough immune response in people who have already had Covid-19 that it could protect from future disease, according to two new papers published in the journal The Lancet on Thursday.




					www.cnn.com
				





_One of those new papers, led by researchers at the University College London and Public Health England, included data on 51 health care workers in London. Among those workers, 24 previously had Covid-19. All of the health care workers received a first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and then were tested for antibodies 19 to 29 days later.
The researchers found that in* those who had a previous natural infection, vaccination increased their antibody levels more than 140-fold. *"This increase appears to be at least one order of magnitude greater than reported after a conventional prime-boost vaccine strategy in previously uninfected individuals," the researchers wrote in their paper._


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## claes (Feb 28, 2021)

As someone who keeps up with scientific journals on this issue, this was a huge surprise









						Finland Had a Patent-Free COVID-19 Vaccine Nine Months Ago — But Still Went With Big Pharma
					

A team of leading Finnish researchers had a patent-free COVID-19 vaccine ready last May, which could have allowed countries all over the world to inoculate their populations without paying top dollar. Yet rather than help the initiative, Finland's government sided with Big Pharma — showing how a...




					jacobinmag.com
				





> The Finnish vaccine uses an adenovirus to carry the genetic instructions for synthesizing the spike protein. One of its practical advantages is that, unlike with RNA technology based on lipid nanoparticles, it can be stored in a regular fridge, potentially even at room temperature. This makes for easier and cheaper delivery logistics with no requirement for ultra-cold storage. Beyond its stability and the convenience of nasal administration, the vaccine may have other superior qualities to many currently on the market, Saksela’s team believes. “In order to fully stop the virus from spreading and to get rid of new mutations, we need to induce sterilizing immunity,” meaning that the virus no longer replicates within the body of an otherwise healthy person. Preliminary animal and patient trials seem to confirm that the nasal spray accomplishes this. “With about half the people who are exposed, even if they’re symptomless, you find that the virus is still present in the upper respiratory system. So even if it’s on the way out, it still gets to run amok through the front door, making your immune system into a training partner of sorts.”


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## the54thvoid (Feb 28, 2021)

claes said:


> As someone who keeps up with scientific journals on this issue, this was a huge surprise
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's all about logistics. It's one thing to develop a theoretical adenoviral vaccine (Astrazenica is one) but to mass produce it by the millions requires massive and specialised facilities. That's, unfortunately, where big pharma comes in. It's exactly why Oxford scientists worked with Astra Zenica. You have scientists working to create a mass production vector for immunisation. I won't defend big pharma (after all, they gave Japan a term for depression and then sold them drugs) but if a company possesses the capacity to produce a 'commodity' most governments will take that path for its ease of use, as well as an 'on tap' source of what is required. 

FWIW, the AZ vaccine was developed years ago as a carrier model for any novel viral vaccine.


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## Space Lynx (Feb 28, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> It's all about logistics.




yep exactly. I was about to say same thing, I love FInland, visited my friends there for 3 months several years ago. but it has its ups and downs, for example this... a free patent vaccine is great but yet i still see no company in Finland rising up manufacturing it...


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## Tatty_One (Feb 28, 2021)

Brazil is on the red list meaning since we went into lockdown all people from Brazil (and Portugal included because of their historic links with Brazil) were banned from entry, only UK citizens were allowed in from those countries but quarantine for them took a bit longer, I am guessing it has been around for a while, most have before they are detected.  

Also yes AZ stockpiled in the countries I mentioned, however and here is the thing, they did have over 65's in the phase 3 human trials, just not as many proportionately as some of the others, however the EU know that the UK has vaccinated 1.8 million over 65's with the AZ vaccine and early tests are showing it actually produces the strongest immune reaction from a single shot for those age ranges thus far, that's not to say after 2 shots it will, had I have been given a choice I would have gone AZ and I am 60, I always like to buy British


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## claes (Mar 1, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> It's all about logistics. It's one thing to develop a theoretical adenoviral vaccine (Astrazenica is one) but to mass produce it by the millions requires massive and specialised facilities. That's, unfortunately, where big pharma comes in. It's exactly why Oxford scientists worked with Astra Zenica. You have scientists working to create a mass production vector for immunisation. I won't defend big pharma (after all, they gave Japan a term for depression and then sold them drugs) but if a company possesses the capacity to produce a 'commodity' most governments will take that path for its ease of use, as well as an 'on tap' source of what is required.
> 
> FWIW, the AZ vaccine was developed years ago as a carrier model for any novel viral vaccine.


Hm? Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but I believe the vaccine is developed and they just couldn’t secure funding for trials? According to the article Finland chose not to invest the $50M needed for the trials because they didn’t want to bare the liability costs.

From the article:


> Saksela’s team has had a patent-free COVID-19 vaccine ready since May 2020, which they dubbed “the Linux of vaccines” in a nod to the famous open-source operating system that also originated from Finland. The work is based on publicly available research data and predicated on the principle of sharing all new findings in peer-reviewed journals.
> 
> ...
> 
> “It’s a finished product, in the sense that the formulation will no longer change in any way with further testing,” Saksela says. “With what we have, we could inoculate the whole population of Finland tomorrow.”


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## Tatty_One (Mar 1, 2021)

It would appear that the Brazilian variant was first detected in January, which means that it likely entered the country November or December, which again means it is quite likely it is already in multiple countries, of the 3 people tested with this new variant, 2 of them had tests the day before they travelled that were negative, both went into quarantine for 14 days on arrival, came out of quarantine and then afterwards started to get symptoms and were tested again, the 3rd person has not yet been found because they did not complete all the contact details required in order to get a test, but they still got the test!


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## HTC (Mar 1, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> It would appear that the Brazilian variant was first detected in January, which means that it likely entered the country November or December, which again means it is quite likely it is already in multiple countries, *of the 3 people tested with this new variant, 2 of them had tests the day before they travelled that were negative, both went into quarantine for 14 days on arrival, came out of quarantine and then afterwards started to get symptoms and were tested again*, the 3rd person has not yet been found because they did not complete all the contact details required in order to get a test, but they still got the test!



That doesn't bode well


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 1, 2021)

US has been fortunate to be far away from the UK variant, but as the UK variant begins to spread here, it seems like our COVID19 cases are back on the rise.

My hope is that we can get substantially vaccinated before the UK variant becomes common around here. We got lucky with a geography advantage (the random mutation being born in the UK rather than here in the US). But time is clearly beginning to run out.





This is Google / New York Times data. Notice that daily COVID# has dropped down since the "Christmas Wave", but we're still above the "Summer Wave" (aka: Wave 2). Despite a substantial ~14% of our population either partially or fully vaccinated, we're no where close to proper herd immunity to clamp down on the virus quite yet.

I'm still optimistic. A 3rd vaccine (J&J) that's cheaper / easier to distribute just arrived, as well as substantial increases to Pfizer / Moderna's supply of vaccines. There are a bunch of smaller issues: like low-dead space syringes which are now being produced in mass numbers (more efficient needles: getting 6-doses per Pfizer vial instead of 5-doses), which serve as an indirect means of gaining more vaccination doses.

The vaccine game is racing against the clock. But there's a good chance that we'll have a substantial portion of our population vaccinated before the next wave: cutting deaths and hospitalizations down. (Even if you do get sick with the vaccine, your chances of severe illness are cut down). We may not have herd immunity for wave#4, but maybe we can prevent hospitals from overflowing again.

---------

The USA's Wave#4 is *probably* going to be UK-variant based. Which is largely protected by the same vaccines (unlike Brazil or South African variants).


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## Tatty_One (Mar 1, 2021)

Well it took pretty much a full lockdown and we are in to week 8 of that lockdown to get the UK variant under control and it still accounts for 90+% of all new infections but in that 8 weeks infection rates have been reduced by over 90% over what they were at the peak in January.  If it takes hold in the US I fear for those states that may have fewer restrictions in place because these new ones are a whole different ball game and we know now there are some strong indications that those who would have a degree of natural immunity from previous infections are likely to have little defence against these newer strains.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 1, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Well it took pretty much a full lockdown and we are in to week 8 of that lockdown to get the UK variant under control and it still accounts for 90+% of all new infections but in that 8 weeks infection rates have been reduced by over 90% over what they were at the peak in January.  If it takes hold in the US I fear for those states that may have fewer restrictions in place because these new ones are a whole different ball game and we know now there are some strong indications that those who would have a degree of natural immunity from previous infections are likely to have little defence against these newer strains.



Natural immunity fails to help vs P1 and B.1.135 (Aka: Brazil / South African). But UK (B.1.1.7) *seems* to be covered by natural immunity of the original COVID19. The vaccines are also a lot more effective.

The US seems unlikely to lockdown again frankly, given our political situation. Biden is pushing for schools to open (for example). I think its all in on vaccine hopes at this point. Hopefully it works out. Trump unexpectedly announced support of the vaccine this past week, so it looks like we have a degree of bipartisan agreement here. There's still a strong anti-vax undercurrent (which hasn't affected us yet: there isn't enough vaccine available for the anti-vax politics to affect us yet). Hopefully we can turn around the anti-vax opinion and keep this vaccination effort strong.


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## Tatty_One (Mar 1, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Natural immunity fails to help vs P1 and B.1.135 (Aka: Brazil / South African). But UK (B.1.1.7) *seems* to be covered by natural immunity of the original COVID19. The vaccines are also a lot more effective.
> 
> The US seems unlikely to lockdown again frankly, given our political situation. Biden is pushing for schools to open (for example). I think its all in on vaccine hopes at this point. Hopefully it works out. Trump unexpectedly announced support of the vaccine this past week, so it looks like we have a degree of bipartisan agreement here. There's still a strong anti-vax undercurrent (which hasn't affected us yet: there isn't enough vaccine available for the anti-vax politics to affect us yet). Hopefully we can turn around the anti-vax opinion and keep this vaccination effort strong.


Yeah, the thing is, until the majority of our people are actually vaccinated then this more contagious beast can still run rampant in the population and put huge strains on resources as it did here and you like us have already had cases of both the South African and Brazilian variants since January to add further potential complications but you are right, vaccinations are the hope as apparently these variants are much less prone to appear with low infection rates.


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## HTC (Mar 7, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 61987 active cases --- *7281 less --- 1040 less per day*
- 731567 recovered --- 12590 more --- 1799 more per day
- 16540 fatalities --- 223 more --- 32 more per day
- 810094 confirmed infected --- 5532 more --- 790 more per day

- 8345773 tests taken --- 145604 more --- 24267 more per day but was last updated March 4th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 1029189 vaccinated --- 167267 more --- last updated today (????) but that corresponds to 737206 1st doses + 291983 2nd doses
- 1414 hospitalized --- *751 less --- 107 less per day*
- 354 in ICU --- *130 less --- 19 less per day*

The usual report wasn't published yesterday and today but, on the days it WAS published, it would always "refuse to load properly" with missing values in either one place or another, so i was forced to use situation report instead.

Hospitalized had another massive decrease, now having a bit more than the highest we had during the 1st wave, and ICU also dropped significantly, though a lot less than hospitalized . Daily fatalities dropped significantly again with it being about as high as we ever got in the 1st wave.

Quite the difference VS 5 weeks ago, just over 2 weeks after our 2nd lockdown started, before it's effects started to get noticed.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 10, 2021)

A few weeks ago, my state was pushing only 25,000 doses/day. Today, the doses are now averaging 36,000+ / day, and expected to only increase as J&J's vaccine is arriving!

We reached over 1-million 1st-dose administrations a few days ago (out of a ~6-million population). So ~18% 1st-dose vaccinated. Now with J&J vaccine out, it will be a bit complicated (J&J is a single-dose vaccine, no 2nd dose needed). 

In local news: more mass-vaccination sites have opened up. Clinics, Hospitals, Pharmacies and grocery stores are offering vaccines, but the process is very ad-hoc. The mass-vaccination sites have a more centralized registration system and seem to be a bit more fair (yeah, some other states have a "central website" for registering doses. We don't... for some reason. Ah well, we should fix that next time a pandemic happens I guess...). The distribution rampup seems to be going smoothly.

The big issue is decentralization. Even within the state, every county, every pharmacy, every hospital has its own rules for how to register for the vaccine. Some are in earlier phases (1C is the state-wide phase, but many stuck on 1B to focus on teachers). If a mass-vaccination site is in your area, it might be following state-wide rules (ie: administering 1C), while the local hospital next door is in Phase 1B. Some prefer federalized / non-centralized solutions though. (I certainly took advantage of it for my parents: 65+ age is phase 1C, and the county they're in was sticking with 1B. So I gave them an appointment from another location serving 1C)

I dunno. It feels a bit unfair for me to "take vaccines from another county". But if that's how the system works, I'm going to do what I can to keep my parents safe.


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## HTC (Mar 14, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 38156 active cases --- *23831 less --- 3404 less per day*
- 759417 recovered --- 27850 more --- 3979 more per day
- 16684 fatalities --- 147 more --- 21 more per day
- 8142574 confirmed infected --- 4163 more --- 595 more per day

- 8502802 tests taken --- 157029 more --- 22433 more per day but was last updated March 11th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 1163873 vaccinated --- 134684 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 824313 1st doses + 339560 2nd doses
- 976 hospitalized --- *438 less --- 63 less per day*
- 242 in ICU --- *112 less --- 16 less per day*

The usual report is finally being properly published so it "returns".

Hospitalized had another big decrease and ICU also dropped significantly. Daily fatalities continue to drop and we had days with under 20 fatalities. Active cases had a massive decrease because the number of recovered increased substantially this week: all numbers (except vaccinations, obviously) are now below those of the peak of 1st wave.

Plans are being made to ease restrictions but there's concern because there are other European countries that are NOW starting their own lockdowns and, by opening now, we risk returning to a situation where we're forced to have another lockdown sooner rather than later because the percentage of those vaccinated is still WELL BELOW the required for herd immunity.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 15, 2021)

I decided to check the vaccination sites this past week. When I got my parent's a vaccine, it took ~5 minutes before all the slots were allocated, meaning I had to F5 furiously over many minutes, waiting for the random updates, to get a slot for them.

This past week, I'd estimate that the vaccine slots were open for a little over an hour. They all filled up eventually, so there's still demand for vaccines, but not nearly as much demand as a month-and-a-half ago.

The waiting lists are all still based on priority groups... But it seems mostly on the honor system here. All of my friends are willing to wait our appropriate turn for the vaccine (none of us want to "kill a grandma" by taking up a potential gradma's slot... or teacher or police officer's slot). But I guess I was expecting for some better checks on age / profession. As long as you click the "I'm part of the priority groups" button, you pretty much can get an appointment. I have to imagine  that some people who got vaccines were in fact, NOT part of the priority groups.

Ah well: even an "inappropriate" vaccination is still a vaccination. One fewer vector for the virus to spread to. I did hear back in phase 1A (highest priority), there were issues getting enough people to sign up for the vaccine, because it was just too small a group. (Doctors / nurses all wanted the vaccine, but they also didn't want to take it all at the same time. A degree of "taking turns" so that they could man the office was still a factor). So one benefit of opening up to lower priorities is that we can spread the vaccine more efficiently, since there's more people filling up more slots.


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## claes (Mar 15, 2021)

If you live in the US some nice people built this to help distribute expiring vaccines









						Get $15 medical consultations for everyday conditions at hidrb.com • Dr. B
					

Dr. B is offering online consultations for Covid-19 treatment at hidrb.com. We also offer a no-cost option for qualifying patients.




					hidrb.com


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## Tatty_One (Mar 15, 2021)

Joe Public cannot book over here, well in so much that our Doctor's surgery sent me a text message saying that I was eligible at the time for a vaccine, the message contained a link which I went to and was able to book myself an appointment for the following day, afterwards I tested/tried the link on my PC and my wife's mobile phone and I couldn't enter the booking system, so no text from the surgery means no vaccination appointment, for those that do not have a mobile phone number on the docs system then it's a personal phone call from the surgery apparently although "NHS England" also send you a letter (I got mine on the day of my appointment) that tells you that you can book an appointment by calling a number that is not your local doctors surgery to book as the healthcare system is all linked.

It is believed by the end of this week half of our adult population will be vaccinated so we remain on target for everyone by the early summer.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 16, 2021)

Hmmmm. Looks like we've reached a Plateau here. Hospitalizations and cases are inching upwards again, suggesting that the downtrend from Winter -> Spring is over. (I don't think we're going to spike upwards yet. It just means we aren't in a downtrend anymore...)

There's definitely lockdown fatigue, especially as other states are opening up and going maskless. We're still masked up here in all public places (pretty rare for me to see someone unmasked). This plateau is above the "2nd COVID wave" of ~August. But we only reached that low-level due to a multi-week total lockdown. So this might be the best my area can get to. This is still an unacceptably high number of #cases and #hospitalizations (but at least %Positive is below 5%).

We just need to hold out until the vaccine is well distributed. A lot of statistics are focusing on "1st dose" vaccinations (which stop hospitalizations / deaths), but we need "2nd dose" full vaccinations to end COVID19, and that takes another month.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 16, 2021)

And now for a dose of pessimism:





B.1.1.7 (aka: UK variant) has been in USA for some time. It has gone from near 0% of infections in December, to ~36% of infections today.

I've said before that B.1.1.7 and the Vaccine in the USA is in a tight race. Unlike P.1 or B.1.1.351, the B.1.1.7 / UK Variant is perfectly covered by vaccines and natural immunity. Its "just" a more infectious variant. All we gotta do is vaccinate before it takes over, and we will be safe.

B.1.1.7 was inevitably going to become the dominant strain in the USA. Its significantly more infectious. We're not out of the woods yet, B.1.1.7 is just getting started. But with some luck, maybe it will run into a highly vaccinated population and be stamped out before major damage is done to us.

-------

B.1.526 is a new variant we're watching out for: the New York variant. Home-grown here in the USA, B.1.526 is our own more infectious version of the virus. Not much is known of it, aside from being also more infectious than the original. B.1.526 is probably too late however: its just getting started now and the vaccine gets distributed faster-and-faster each day. Similarly: as scary as P.1 and B.1.351 are, they seem to be "too late" to get a major foothold on the USA ("knock on wood").

B.1.1.7 on the other hand, is reaching critical mass and we're not fully vaccinated yet. I won't be surprised if B.1.1.7 is our "final boss", the last challenge before this is all over. Well, either that or P.1 / B.1.351 (since those two avoid the vaccine and natural immunity to some degree. So we might need a booster to win vs those two).


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## claes (Mar 16, 2021)

I’ve been holding my tongue not to rain on anyone’s parade, but a fourth wave in the US seems inevitable. Even NYC is opening back up while infections have been at levels equivalent to last summer’s peak across the US. I appreciate that everyone’s fatigued and the economic ramifications, but there was no way we were gonna avoid another wave if states opened up months before we approach herd immunity. Last Friday saw the highest number of airline travelers since the pandemic began — it’s boggling to me that states are so willing to take these risks.


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## Tatty_One (Mar 16, 2021)

We got the UK variant under control ............. eventually, first significant cases mid December (although it was being monitored before that), by mid January it accounted for 70 - 80% of all new infections, the fact that the US is much less population dense may help but the only way we got it under control is to go into full lockdown on 4th January and we are still in that lockdown now apart from schools going back last week, albeit daily infection rates are right down to around 5k, I fear that the US is moving in the opposite direction in terms of restrictions, our hospitalisations alone at the peak (last week of January .... ish) had doubled on the peak of the first wave.


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## Aiden_ (Mar 16, 2021)

Thanks for the informative graphs and tables, although these are only confirmed cases and realistically, there could be up to 10x more.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 17, 2021)

Aiden_ said:


> Thanks for the informative graphs and tables, although these are only confirmed cases and realistically, there could be up to 10x more.



Not really.

%Positive is the main metric at figuring out whether or not your counts are accurate. When %Positive grows beyond 5%, then you know you're not testing enough in your community. When %Positive is below 5% (aka: over 95% of tests are negative), you're catching the vast majority of COVID19 cases.

That's why most of these states / communities / countries are *reporting the number of negative tests*.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 19, 2021)

Good example of shitty testing:





337.6% positive in Missouri. Uhhhh... what the hell? Well, for one day at least. They probably glitched their systems or something...

Available from JHU's COVID19 tracker: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview


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## R-T-B (Mar 20, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Good example of shitty testing:
> 
> View attachment 193107
> 
> ...


Ah, the "show me" state really showing off their stats well I see.


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## HTC (Mar 22, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 33443 active cases --- *4713 less --- 673 less per day*
- 759417 recovered --- 7902 more --- 1128 more per day
- 16768 fatalities --- 84 more --- 12 more per day
- 817530 confirmed infected --- 3273 more --- 468 more per day

- 8502802 tests taken --- 268618 more --- 33577 more per day but was last updated March 19th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 1348331 vaccinated --- 184458 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 902527 1st doses + 445804 2nd doses
- 765 hospitalized --- *211 less --- 30 less per day*
- 170 in ICU --- *72 less --- 10 less per day*

Hospitalized had another big decrease and ICU also dropped significantly. Daily fatalities continue to drop and we had days with under 10 fatalities, for the 1st time since the 2nd wave.


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## kapone32 (Mar 22, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Well it took pretty much a full lockdown and we are in to week 8 of that lockdown to get the UK variant under control and it still accounts for 90+% of all new infections but in that 8 weeks infection rates have been reduced by over 90% over what they were at the peak in January.  If it takes hold in the US I fear for those states that may have fewer restrictions in place because these new ones are a whole different ball game and we know now there are some strong indications that those who would have a degree of natural immunity from previous infections are likely to have little defence against these newer strains.


The problem with the US is that many people attribute wearing a mask to an assault on their "freedom".


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## kapone32 (Mar 22, 2021)

Is it not insane that the whole human population may have to be vaccinated against this virus? Right now clinical trials are going on for kids as young as 3. We need to shut everything down for a month of 2 and have the governments help to pay for or provide survival material. I fear that the half hearted closures and ill advised re openings will extend the life of the virus as people become more frustrated with the conditions. If we are not careful it could lead to Apathy on the part of many.


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## Vya Domus (Mar 22, 2021)

kapone32 said:


> We need to shut everything down for a month of 2 and have the governments help to pay for or provide survival material.


That would probably be a catastrophe even bigger than what this virus did in a whole year.

We have to face the reality that it's never going to go away, even getting the entire population vaccinated, which is absurd, wont exterminate the virus. It's time we try and slowly go back to normal despite all of this, we have no other choice.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 22, 2021)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/astrazeneca-vaccine-trial-efficacy/2021/03/22/fc950a22-8aa6-11eb-a33e-da28941cb9ac_story.html
		


AstraZeneca’s vaccine is 79% effective in US-tests, higher efficacy than European tests.



> The scientists said the data show the vaccine is 79 percent effective against symptomatic covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and 100 percent effective against severe illness. There were five cases of severe illness in the trial, all of them in the group that received a placebo.



So after much delay, AZ might finally be deployed here in the USA, increasing our vaccination supply dramatically (again).


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## Tatty_One (Mar 22, 2021)

kapone32 said:


> The problem with the US is that many people attribute wearing a mask to an assault on their "freedom".


Well, wearing a mask is a little less important in a "full" lockdown where like here, with some exceptions a "stay at home" order has been invoked but obviously here they are required to be worn if for example you go into a Supermarket where by law you can be refused entry without one unless you can produce evidence of a specific medical condition where wearing one would be a risk.

I always simply look at vaccinations as a route to herd immunity but in a safer way, especially now as there is already significant evidence that people who had caught the original strain have little or no immunity against some of the new ones, at least if we get a variant that renders a vaccine relatively ineffective some of these vaccines especially the mRNA based ones can be adapted in 6 - 8 weeks apparently, but I agree, there is no easy answer.


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## claes (Mar 22, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> That would probably be a catastrophe even bigger than what this virus did in a whole year.


Catastrophe? Most major economies expanded... the only catastrophe was all of the dead people and cancelled plans...


Vya Domus said:


> We have to face the reality that it's never going to go away, even getting the entire population vaccinated, which is absurd, wont exterminate the virus. It's time we try and slowly go back to normal despite all of this, we have no other choice.


I was going to reply to your climate change post in earnest, but this post suggests you’re not really interested in things like logical proofs and sound reasoning as much as dropping bombastic political claims on the dl to own all the sheeple


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## claes (Mar 22, 2021)

Edit: I’ll assume the laugh emoji and lack of a reply implies as much  so much for “reason”


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 23, 2021)

In my previous update, it looked like hospitalizations were transitioning from "downward trend" into a plateau. However, with spring-break COVIDIOTS going out everywhere + the more infectious UK variant becoming more-and-more dominant, it seems like the trend has fully reversed and hospitalizations are on the rise again.

%Positive has risen dramatically from ~3.5%ish to 4.5% (getting close to the 5% estimate where COVID data becomes less reliable). We never got back to "2nd wave" numbers.

Hopefully this is a temporary bounce upwards. But notice: hospitalization rates are going up, so its serious infections that are occurring. Despite ~20% of my state being vaccinated (and that's most of the older folk 65+), we're still seeing a dramatic increase in hospitalizations.


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## Tatty_One (Mar 23, 2021)

Oddly, as I mentioned in an earlier post, our 2nd/3rd wave (whichever it was I suppose) that peaked in January saw a definite increase in under 60's all the way down to 40's getting hospitalised than in the first outbreak, most of it was talked about with interviews on our news channels, the only factual thing in terms of stats I saw was that under 60 year year olds hospitalised increased by 42% across the UK in comparison to the first wave, the thing I don't know for sure is 42% more than how many.

This is a news article around a statement made on a government briefing on 11th January basically saying that as of then, running up to our peak 25% of all our hospital admissions were under the age of 55 and at that time there were 35,000 in hospital .....................

25% of Covid-19 admissions to hospital are under the age of 55, MPs told | Express & Star (expressandstar.com)


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## Space Lynx (Mar 23, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Oddly, as I mentioned in an earlier post, our 2nd/3rd (whichever it was I suppose) that peaked in January saw a definite increase in under 60's all the way down to 40's getting hospitalised than in the first outbreak, most of it was talked about with interviews on our news channels, the only factual thing in terms of stats I saw was that under 60 year year olds hospitalised increased by 42% across the UK in comparison to the first wave, the thing I don't know for sure is 42% more than how many.
> 
> This is a news article around a statement made on a government briefing on 11th January basically saying that as of then, running up to our peak 25% of all our hospital admissions were under the age of 55 and at that time there were 35,000 in hospital .....................
> 
> 25% of Covid-19 admissions to hospital are under the age of 55, MPs told | Express & Star (expressandstar.com)




all people 50+ are vaccinated in UK now though right? that means rate of death should be near 0 almost. so what is the rate of death for UK in last week?


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## Tatty_One (Mar 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> all people 50+ are vaccinated in UK now though right? that means rate of death should be near 0 almost. so what is the rate of death for UK in last week?


Almost all over 50's, but you are maybe forgetting that the people who died yesterday were possibly infected 4 weeks ago or more? The 7 day average daily fatality rate as of yesterday is 85, compare that with the 11th January when that Government briefing took place regarding the 25% of all those hospitalised were under 55 which was around 1000 - 1400 per day average.  It would be interesting to see the ages of those 85 per day average though.


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## kapone32 (Mar 24, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> That would probably be a catastrophe even bigger than what this virus did in a whole year.
> 
> We have to face the reality that it's never going to go away, even getting the entire population vaccinated, which is absurd, wont exterminate the virus. It's time we try and slowly go back to normal despite all of this, we have no other choice.


As abusrd as you think it is it will become more and more of a reality. Do you understand that the "virus" has already mutated (plural) to more dangerous levels. I just had a friend of the family recover from Covid 19. They went from 168 to 90 lbs in 7 days so you can't tell me this isn't real. Actually the biggest catastrophe in this (and support for your argument) is that teachers are not considered essential for vaccine application. No other point in our society has a better nexus for transmission. We cannot even attempt to go back to normal and if you worked in Healthcare that would definitely not be your sentiment. We need to face the fact about Covid 19. It is one of man's biggest fears; a killer form of the common cold (in transmission). Early in the virus a senior's home in my neck of the woods had an outbreak. The 1st case was confirmed on a Friday, by Sunday 48 of the 51 residents had died. Take a look at some Xrays of lungs effected by Covid and ask yourself if you would like that to be the lungs of you or your loved ones. A Worldwide lock down was required but the Greed co-efficient would not allow for that. Do you really think that Coca Cola would just allow the loss of 95% of their revenue?


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## Space Lynx (Mar 24, 2021)

kapone32 said:


> As abusrd as you think it is it will become more and more of a reality. Do you understand that the "virus" has already mutated (plural) to more dangerous levels. I just had a friend of the family recover from Covid 19. They went from 168 to 90 lbs in 7 days so you can't tell me this isn't real. Actually the biggest catastrophe in this (and support for your argument) is that teachers are not considered essential for vaccine application. No other point in our society has a better nexus for transmission. We cannot even attempt to go back to normal and if you worked in Healthcare that would definitely not be your sentiment. We need to face the fact about Covid 19. It is one of man's biggest fears; a killer form of the common cold (in transmission). Early in the virus a senior's home in my neck of the woods had an outbreak. The 1st case was confirmed on a Friday, by Sunday 48 of the 51 residents had died. Take a look at some Xrays of lungs effected by Covid and ask yourself if you would like that to be the lungs of you or your loved ones. A Worldwide lock down was required but the Greed co-efficient would not allow for that. Do you really think that Coca Cola would just allow the loss of 95% of their revenue?



My state is allowing anyone 16 an older can get the vaccine. Things are moving really fast in Republican states it seems, not sure why that is. I guess not as many people want the vaccine in Republican states, so it's easier to get? 

I have had Covid twice (once officially) and yes I never want it again... so I will be getting vaccine very soon.


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## kapone32 (Mar 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> My state is allowing anyone 16 an older can get the vaccine. Things are moving really fast in Republican states it seems, not sure why that is. I guess not as many people want the vaccine in Republican states, so it's easier to get?
> 
> I have had Covid twice (once officially) and yes I never want it again... so I will be getting vaccine very soon.


Here in Canada even though the lockdown protocols have been good the vaccine implementation has been meh. It behooves me that as one of the G7 countries we do not have our our facilities to manufacture our own vaccine.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 24, 2021)

kapone32 said:


> Here in Canada even though the lockdown protocols have been good the vaccine implementation has been meh. It behooves me that as one of the G7 countries we do not have our our facilities to manufacture our own vaccine.




perhaps that is one of the downsides of universal healthcare? i don't know just asking


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> perhaps that is one of the downsides of universal healthcare? i don't know just asking



In the USA, the Vaccine is (temporary) universal healthcare... for better or worse. Its a free shot with no citizenship check (but tightly regulated in terms of age / health conditions / occupation) for who is allowed / not allowed to get it. While the individual states set and enforce the rules, all states are beholden to the Federal Government for actual shipments. 

EDIT: It should be noted that Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are relatively expensive: nearly $20 (USD). USA put big bets on them and it paid off. Other vaccines are $2 to $5, and maybe Canada bet on those vaccines instead. UK bought tons and tons of AZ vaccine (and luckily, AZ was also one of the fastest approved vaccines, 3rd place after Pfizer and Moderna). And since AZ is cheaper to produce and cheaper to distribute, the UK clearly benefited from that bet.

Speaking of UK: the UK is rolling out their (mostly AZ-based) vaccine faster than the USA. And UK has universal healthcare too. So I'm pretty sure the health-care style doesn't really matter on this mass scale (ironically). What really mattered was the decisions the countries made last year: whether they bet on the right vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, AZ, or J&J). Or even Sinopharm (Hungary is faster than other EU countries, since they were willing to take China's vaccine).


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 24, 2021)

I know, statistically this is nearly irrelevant, but I just thought I'd drop this here.

I, a resident of Washington state, got my first Moderna dose today.  No real side effects.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 24, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I know, statistically this is nearly irrelevant, but I just thought I'd drop this here.
> 
> I, a resident of Washington state, got my first Moderna dose today.  No real side effects.



Every 16 an up can get the vaccine in my state now. I honestly don't know how they moved the vaccines so fast. crazy fast. I'm very very impressed. I am going to get the Moderna one or Pfizer probably early April. I currently have immunity though from already having it naturally. So I am considering waiting until early May. No rush really.


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## Tatty_One (Mar 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Every 16 an up can get the vaccine in my state now. I honestly don't know how they moved the vaccines so fast. crazy fast. I'm very very impressed. I am going to get the Moderna one or Pfizer probably early April. I currently have immunity though from already having it naturally. So I am considering waiting until early May. No rush really.


If you don't mind me making a suggestion ................... don't wait unless you have no choice, with these different variants stating to find their way into some communities there is evidence that natural immunity will be either much weaker or non existent, from what I have read that seems to apply to the South African and Brazilian variants although you should be OK against the UK one.


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## Vya Domus (Mar 26, 2021)

kapone32 said:


> Do you understand that the "virus" has already mutated (plural) to more dangerous levels. I just had a friend of the family recover from Covid 19. They went from 168 to 90 lbs in 7 days so you can't tell me this isn't real.


Exactly and because of that vaccination is not the end be all. It's a probability thing, you get vaccinated you become X % less likely to become infected, this will always leave a pool of people that continue to get sick and spread the virus. The point is these scenarios are never going to go away. 

On the other hand the economical implications of completely locking everything down for months are unfathomable. We're already pushing our luck, national reserves around the world already dumped a lot of capital into banks buying up various stocks and assets to keep markets up and hide the inflation. Crashes have happened before, however, by literally halting the operation of major industries we are playing with fire in way we have never done before.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 26, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> Exactly and because of that vaccination is not the end be all.



The vaccine is the end-all be-all of the original COVID19 strain, B.1.1.7 (UK Strain), P.1 (Brazil Strain: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2102017).

Studies on B.1.351 (South Africa strain) are ongoing. But the vaccines could very well be the end-all-be-all for that strain *as well*, but *maybe* we'll need a booster shot. In the mean time, we can enjoy a near 100% reduction in deaths and hospitalizations, even against B.1.351 (you might get sick, but you don't die from it).

The virus needs to mutate a fair bit more before our current crop of vaccines are rendered useless. The vaccines seem "stronger" and more flexible than natural immunity: offering greater protections against COVID19 (and its many variants) than natural immunity offers.

-----------

Sure, there's a new New York strain (B.1.526), but chances are, I would bet that its also covered by the vaccines. After all, the P.1 strain was a pretty large mutation by most measures... and yet we're still good with the vaccine (but not good with natural immunity).



> It's a probability thing, you get vaccinated you become X % less likely to become infected, this will always leave a pool of people that continue to get sick and spread the virus.



The virus only spreads by probability. Before the lockdowns, we've measured the virus spreading at a R0 of 3. That is: every 1 person infected creates 3-more infected a generation later.

This means that a 66% effective vaccine applied to 100% of the population (or a 100% effective vaccine applied to 66% of the population) will wipe out the virus. Why? Because at >66% herd immunity: 1-person infected will create *less than one* infected person a generation later (the virus "naturally" tried to spread to 3 people, but 2+ of those people were immune, and thus the virus starts to die out). When we reach 70%, 80%, or greater levels of vaccination, we will wipe out the virus.

EDIT: Note: Measles has an R0 of 15, requiring vaccination rates of 94%+ to wipe out. And guess what? We've mostly wiped Measles out. An R0=3 virus is going to be cake compared to Measles once people start trusting the vaccine.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 26, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The vaccine is the end-all be-all of the original COVID19 strain, B.1.1.7 (UK Strain), P.1 (Brazil Strain: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2102017).
> 
> Studies on B.1.351 (South Africa strain) are ongoing. But the vaccines could very well be the end-all-be-all for that strain *as well*, but *maybe* we'll need a booster shot. In the mean time, we can enjoy a near 100% reduction in deaths and hospitalizations, even against B.1.351 (you might get sick, but you don't die from it).
> 
> The virus needs to mutate a fair bit more before our current crop of vaccines are rendered useless. The vaccines seem "stronger" and more flexible than natural immunity: offering greater protections against COVID19 (and its many variants) than natural immunity offers.



I'm still trying to understand the numbers a bit better.

Pfizer = 30 micrograms, in 7 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 100% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.
Moderna = 100 micrograms, in 14 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 89% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.

I don't know, less material has to enter my body and I get better protection with Pfizer, I kind of want a Pfizer vaccine personally.


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## Tatty_One (Mar 26, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> Exactly and because of that vaccination is not the end be all. It's a probability thing, you get vaccinated you become X % less likely to become infected, this will always leave a pool of people that continue to get sick and spread the virus. The point is these scenarios are never going to go away.
> 
> On the other hand the economical implications of completely locking everything down for months are unfathomable. We're already pushing our luck, national reserves around the world already dumped a lot of capital into banks buying up various stocks and assets to keep markets up and hide the inflation. Crashes have happened before, however, by literally halting the operation of major industries we are playing with fire in way we have never done before.


So far research in the UK shows a minimum of 66% don't transmit, the thing is though, the other 33% so far who might infect people are not getting hospitalised (so mild symptoms, that includes the elderly and people with chronic underlying conditions).

Once the population has been vaccinated even if they are one of the  5 - 10% that the efficacy does not reach they are likely to only get mild symptoms and even if they did get more severe symptoms that quantity of people would not strain our medical infrastructure, leaving us (hopefully) in the situation that if it does not kill you or make you severely ill then that's a win because it's pretty much the same as some of the influenza strains, don't get me wrong though, I am not suggesting it's a smooth road to get there at all.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 26, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm still trying to understand the numbers a bit better.
> 
> Pfizer = 30 micrograms, in 7 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 100% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.
> Moderna = 100 micrograms, in 14 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 89% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.
> ...



We don't have enough vaccines to be choosy. As long as the vaccine is above the estimated R0 values (66% for an R0 of 3), then we wipe out the virus and win with enough vaccinations.

This means that even a 70% effective vaccine (with enough people taking it) is enough to win. Seeing these 90% or 95% effective vaccines is outstanding.



Tatty_One said:


> So far research in the UK shows a minimum of 66% don't transmit, the thing is though, the other 33% so far who might infect people are not getting hospitalised (so mild symptoms, that includes the elderly and people with chronic underlying conditions).



IIRC, the main UK vaccine is AZ, which mainly has advantages in storage / distribution but a bit less efficacy than the mRNA vaccines. I was seeing some initial studies suggesting 80%+ lack of transmission with the mRNA vaccines.

66% lack of transmission is just a *bit* too low to stop the spread of the virus. But a widespread distribution of that vaccine means you wipe out most hospitalizations and most deaths due to the virus. So that's still a win in my book. Besides: it will still grossly stop most transmissions (66% prevention of transmissions *compounds per generation*. 10 infected normally becomes 30 infected, then 90 infected. But with a 60% herd immunity (say: 90% distributed x 66% effective), 10 infected becomes 12 and then becomes 14 infected, or a 90% reduction over two generations.

So even if we are unable to reach "wipe out the virus" levels of herd immunity (due to either too few people taking the vaccine, or vaccines that lose efficacy), seeing numbers like 60% or 70% *compounded* reduction in transmission is outstanding. It really hampers the ability for the virus to spread.


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## Vya Domus (Mar 26, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> This means that a 66% effective vaccine applied to 100% of the population (or a 100% effective vaccine applied to 66% of the population) will wipe out the virus. Why? Because at >66% herd immunity: 1-person infected will create *less than one* infected person a generation later (the virus "naturally" tried to spread to 3 people, but 2+ of those people were immune, and thus the virus starts to die out). When we reach 70%, 80%, or greater levels of vaccination, we will wipe out the virus.



The science of “herd immunity” is highly inaccurate and should not be taken for granted.

And it’s not all about the probability of infection, Ebola for instance has a minuscule infection rate due to it requiring direct contact with bodily fluids yet there are still outbreaks from time to time and guess what, still not eradicated because of that. It’s ill advised and foolish to think that all of these COVID strands will just disappear due to a lower probability of infection.

Anyway, complete lockdowns are just not a good idea for economical reasons, ignoring everything else.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 26, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> Ebola for instance has a minuscule infection rate



Wikipedia suggests Ebola is somewhere between 1.5 to 2.5, which is larger than H1N1.

Hardly "miniscule".



> The science of “herd immunity” is highly inaccurate and should not be taken for granted.



Its a model. If you have a better model, feel free to contribute. Newtonian physics is highly inaccurate as it ignores relativistic effects and the speed of light, but its still good enough to calculate 99% of outer-space issues.

Similarly, the idea of "1 infection causes 3 more infections" (R0 = 3) is simple, and allows us to do napkin-level math for whether or not our vaccines will be effective. Guess what? 80%+ effective vaccines against an R0 = 3. COVID19 isn't even the worst disease from an R0 perspective: Measles is R0 = 15, far far more infectious and prone to outbreaks than COVID (94% needed to prevent a Measles outbreak). Highly-effective vaccines are a wonderful thing: they'll get us to the point where we can win.

COVID19 is far less infectious than Measles. Our vaccines are a spattering of efficacy around the world: so it gets complicated, but 70%, 80%, or even 90% vaccine efficacy seems to be in line with current measurements (depending on various factors: age, comorbidities, transmission vs hospitalization vs death, etc. etc.). And I don't want to oversimplify anything... but... there's nothing here about COVID19 that seems like its unbeatable. The only issue is the wtf 30%+ anti-vax rate going on right now in the USA according to various opinion polls.

------------

Given the numbers gathered so far, the *opinion* of anti-vax is the greatest barrier. Our vaccine efficacy is outstanding. R0 is high but reasonable (COVID's R0 of 3 is higher than most viruses, but less than Measles or other viruses we *HAVE* beaten before). Vaccine production and distribution is slower than I'd like, but the USA and UK are looking like production won't be an issue as soon as June-ish. The only variable left in our control is vaccination rates. If we can push to 80% or 90% vaccination, this probably will be all over. Even after factoring in the current crop of variants.


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## Vya Domus (Mar 26, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Wikipedia suggests Ebola is somewhere between 1.5 to 2.5, which is larger than H1N1.



Incidentally H1N1 strands still pop up from time to time, the point is you can’t judge whether a virus will be eradicated just because the probability of infection drops.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 26, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> Incidentally H1N1 strands still pop up from time to time, the point is you can’t judge whether a virus will be eradicated just because the probability of infection drops.



Flu vaccines only give you immunity for 6 months.

COVID19 vaccines have been tested and proven to last longer than that already. Now we don't know if its a one-and-done deal like Measles (well... I guess Measles has a booster. But after the booster we're done), or if we'll have to renew our COVID19 shots every year or 2, or 5, or 10. We'll figure that out when we get there.

But for now, we know that COVID19 immunity from vaccines lasts longer than ~9 months of testing so far. So things will be easier than the flu / H1N1 in that regards.


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## HTC (Mar 27, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> The science of “herd immunity” is highly inaccurate and should not be taken for granted.
> 
> And it’s not all about the probability of infection, Ebola for instance has a minuscule infection rate due to it requiring direct contact with bodily fluids yet there are still outbreaks from time to time and guess what, still not eradicated because of that. It’s ill advised and foolish to think that all of these COVID strands will just disappear due to a lower probability of infection.
> 
> *Anyway, complete lockdowns are just not a good idea for economical reasons, ignoring everything else.*



They are *THE* only method currently available that effectively blocks *ALREADY* rampaging numbers: HOWEVER, the economic cost is MOST DIRE, which is why countries only opt for this method as a last resort.

Unfortunately, most of the countries that opted for this method, did so FAR TOO LATE, when the numbers were already "sky high", meaning the LENGTH of the lockdown is A LOT LONGER than it would have been had the lockdown been enforced 1 to 2 weeks (or more) earlier.

The only country i'm aware of that had a VERY HARD lockdown VERY EARLY was New Zealand, because they enforced it before even having 100 daily cases, Nation wide: this ended up with the lockdown not lasting a month IIRC. Compare that to Portugal's 2nd lockdown for example, which is nearing 2.5 months already, and we have WAY HIGHER numbers than they had when they started to reopen.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 27, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> We don't have enough vaccines to be choosy. As long as the vaccine is above the estimated R0 values (66% for an R0 of 3), then we wipe out the virus and win with enough vaccinations.
> 
> This means that even a 70% effective vaccine (with enough people taking it) is enough to win. Seeing these 90% or 95% effective vaccines is outstanding.
> 
> ...



my small town has 3 vaccines to choose from and you can choose which location you go to and they tell you before you choose which one you will get it. so I do have the option for Pfizer, moderna, or J&J, so going to choose Pfizer, it just seems like the overall best. most people i know got moderna though so i don't know. bleh.  i did have one family member get pfizer and she had no symptoms. the ones who got moderna were sick for 1-2 days. i prob will get sick for 1-2 days either way. meh

also still a little afraid of mrna tech still... considering the J&J a lot as the time gets closer actually...


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## R-T-B (Mar 27, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> Exactly and because of that vaccination is not the end be all. It's a probability thing, you get vaccinated you become X % less likely to become infected, this will always leave a pool of people that continue to get sick and spread the virus. The point is these scenarios are never going to go away.


So we issue booster shots.  The way the mrna vaccines are constructued actually make this quite easy.

This isn't insurmountable.


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## Tatty_One (Mar 27, 2021)

Eradication has never been a requirement, in general we live with many things that once killed lots of us but through immunity whether natural or science based has resulted in little significant social economic effect, that is the objective we face today.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 27, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Eradication has never been a requirement, in general we live with many things that once killed lots of us but through immunity whether natural or science based has resulted in little significant social economic effect, that is the objective we face today.



Agreed. But it seems like eradication is *possible*. It will require vaccinating the world, which has issues. Most of the world probably will take the vaccine willingly, but who is going to go out to say... Afghanistan... and vaccinate the Taliban?

Eradication is not necessary. But since seems feasible, we might as well aim for it. The whole "aim for the stars, and you might land on the moon" sort of thing. Even if we fail at eradication, the steps we take in that direction will make life far safer and more normalized afterwards.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 27, 2021)

Pfizer = 30 micrograms, in 7 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 100% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.
Moderna = 100 micrograms, in 14 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 89% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.

any scientists here that can explain why there is a magnitude of over 60% discrepancy in the amount of material (70 microgram difference) needed for moderna vs pfizer, even though essentially they are very similar.


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## R-T-B (Mar 27, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Eradication has never been a requirement


No but if it’s in reach with something as dangerous as this we’d be fools not to aim for it.

Shoot for the moon, and be happy if you even escape the atmosphere, you know?


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## R-T-B (Mar 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Pfizer = 30 micrograms, in 7 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 100% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.
> Moderna = 100 micrograms, in 14 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 89% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.
> 
> any scientists here that can explain why there is a magnitude of over 60% discrepancy in the amount of material (70 microgram difference) needed for moderna vs pfizer, even though essentially they are very similar.


Paging @xkm1948


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Pfizer = 30 micrograms, in 7 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 100% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.
> Moderna = 100 micrograms, in 14 days fully inoculated after second shot, and 89% prevention of hospitalizations and 100% prevention of deaths.
> 
> any scientists here that can explain why there is a magnitude of over 60% discrepancy in the amount of material (70 microgram difference) needed for moderna vs pfizer, even though essentially they are very similar.



My understanding is that Moderna is a newer company, and decided to err on the side of "more vaccine". Some study showed that 50ug of Moderna was as effective as 100ug.

Ultimately: Moderna tested with 100ug. Pfizer tested with 30ug. Since that's what was tested, we stick with that.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 28, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> My understanding is that Moderna is a newer company, and decided to err on the side of "more vaccine". Some study showed that 50ug of Moderna was as effective as 100ug.
> 
> Ultimately: Moderna tested with 100ug. Pfizer tested with 30ug. Since that's what was tested, we stick with that.



Well since I have the option I am going to choose Pfizer then, less stuff entering my body the better.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Well since I have the option I am going to choose Pfizer then, less stuff entering my body the better.



Yeah, I'm sure it really depends on the area.

I just checked a bunch of reservation sites here in my area. Everything is typically entirely out of reservation slots. When I set stuff up for my parents, I was happy just to get any slot what so ever.

Last week, it looked like more doses were being delivered. But now we've moved from phase 1C to 2... and now it feels like all slots are taken up again. Getting any vaccine what so ever is lucky (even if you're in the priority groups) around here.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 28, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Yeah, I'm sure it really depends on the area.
> 
> I just checked a bunch of reservation sites here in my area. Everything is typically entirely out of reservation slots. When I set stuff up for my parents, I was happy just to get any slot what so ever.
> 
> Last week, it looked like more doses were being delivered. But now we've moved from phase 1C to 2... and now it feels like all slots are taken up again. Getting any vaccine what so ever is lucky (even if you're in the priority groups) around here.



does the johnson and johnson vaccine have a 100% death prevent rate like the other two vaccines do?  not hospitalization, i specifically mean the death rate


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## 68Olds (Mar 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> does the johnson and johnson vaccine have a 100% death prevent rate like the other two vaccines do?  not hospitalization, i specifically mean the death rate


I have read that the J&J vaccine is 100% at preventing death, but I couldn't find a link for you backing up that claim.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> does the johnson and johnson vaccine have a 100% death prevent rate like the other two vaccines do?  not hospitalization, i specifically mean the death rate





			https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download
		




> As of February 5, 2021, there were 7 COVID-19 related deaths in the study in the placebo group and no COVID-19 related deaths in the vaccine group.



This doesn't mean that J&J is actually 100% effective, it just means that it was measured to be 100% effective in the phase 3 trial. However, we can confidently say that the *actual* effectiveness against death is somewhere between 99% and 100%. It looks like a few participants in the vaccine-group did die during the trial, but it was found to not be related to COVID19 or the vaccine (which is only natural when your study includes 40,000 individuals)

I'm not a doctor but I took high-school science / statistics and understand p-values / statistics / null-value hypothesis, lol.  So yeaaaaahhhh, feel free to correct me if you read the study differently.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 28, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download
> 
> 
> 
> ...




this is excellent news... I am leaning towards the J&J vaccine honestly. I don't know, I have heard about blood clotting with astra zeneca and pfizer that doctor from florida who died shortly after getting pfizer vaccine, and the news article i read about it said he had low platelet count, whatever that means.

but i remember the first week of december when covid was kicking my butt, i literally mean it, i thought i was going to die. i remember telling the doctor, my blood felt "congealed" i had no idea what i meant by that at the time, but looking back on all this blood clotting stuff, i really wonder if some people are more susceptible to this low platelet stuff or blood clotting than others, i know its very rare... but still, having experienced what covid did to my blood, and having a good memory of it. im almost scared of all the vaccines right now. but I think the J&J one had no reports of blood clotting... so I think maybe safe bet if i go with that one...


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## the54thvoid (Mar 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> this is excellent news... I am leaning towards the J&J vaccine honestly. I don't know, I have heard about blood clotting with astra zeneca and pfizer that doctor from florida who died shortly after getting pfizer vaccine, and the news article i read about it said he had low platelet count, whatever that means.
> 
> but i remember the first week of december when covid was kicking my butt, i literally mean it, i thought i was going to die. i remember telling the doctor, my blood felt "congealed" i had no idea what i meant by that at the time, but looking back on all this blood clotting stuff, i really wonder if some people are more susceptible to this low platelet stuff or blood clotting than others, i know its very rare... but still, having experienced what covid did to my blood, and having a good memory of it. im almost scared of all the vaccines right now. but I think the J&J one had no reports of blood clotting... so I think maybe safe bet if i go with that one...



People die regardless of vaccines. This was from 18th March:



> In the UK, five cases of cerebral sinus vein thrombosis (CSVT), among 11 million people who have received the vaccine, occurred in men aged between 19 and 59. One of these was fatal.



The incidence was less than the normal population numbers. Blood clots are more lilely to happen with covid.


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## dragontamer5788 (Mar 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> this is excellent news... I am leaning towards the J&J vaccine honestly. I don't know, I have heard about blood clotting with astra zeneca and pfizer that doctor from florida who died shortly after getting pfizer vaccine, and the news article i read about it said he had low platelet count, whatever that means.
> 
> but i remember the first week of december when covid was kicking my butt, i literally mean it, i thought i was going to die. i remember telling the doctor, my blood felt "congealed" i had no idea what i meant by that at the time, but looking back on all this blood clotting stuff, i really wonder if some people are more susceptible to this low platelet stuff or blood clotting than others, i know its very rare... but still, having experienced what covid did to my blood, and having a good memory of it. im almost scared of all the vaccines right now. but I think the J&J one had no reports of blood clotting... so I think maybe safe bet if i go with that one...



It should be noted that all of these phase 3 trials "only" test for "One in 10,000" probabilities. J&J had a 40,000 person test for example. Which means if something is a "one-in-a-million" chance of happening, these phase 3 trials are probably blind to them.

Testing for the "long tail" is just a bitch-and-a-half for any scientist. We're able to get to *over* 99.99% certainty (quite literally, 9999 out of 10,000) of the safety of any vaccine. AstraZeneca included. If a blood clotting issue does exist (and studies are still ongoing for that), it will be a 1-in-100,000 or a *literal* 1-in-a-million chance of happening.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 28, 2021)

@the54thvoid @dragontamer5788 

Just to be clear, I am not an anti-vaccine person, I usually get a flu vaccine every two years just fyi, even though I am young and don't really need it.

That being said. I think I will just have to close my eyes and do it. and hope for best, because the truth is after having covid once (possibly twice) i know for a fact my body is weak against it. it truly kicked my ass both times.

if pfizer is available i am going to do it. if not then moderna, if no then jnj.


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## R-T-B (Mar 28, 2021)

It should be noted that none of the vaccines actually contain any form of the virus, killed or otherwise, so your reaction to the virus itself should not be cause for concern.


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## Space Lynx (Mar 28, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It should be noted that none of the vaccines actually contain any form of the virus, killed or otherwise, so your reaction to the virus itself should not be cause for concern.



that's not my concern at all really, it's mostly 2 years from now, will our bodies go haywire... mrna is very new, researched a long time true, but still new in living breathing humans.

that being said, i do think the vaccine is safe 99.90% for short term. im just afraid im part of that .10% and yes its an irrational fear, i know that.

and then also long term... like what if our lungs or kidneys start failing two years from now, does anyone really understand mrna genetic editing? is this hubris? these are questions i am asking myself. why should I trust Fauci? he said no masks in March 2020, and I said that's most stupid thing I ever heard, and told my parents we should wear masks to be extra safe anyway. he gets paid 6 figures though and I don't, so who do i trust


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## HTC (Mar 28, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 28179 active cases --- *5264 less --- 752 less per day*
- 775391 recovered --- 15974 more --- 2282 more per day
- 16837 fatalities --- 69 more --- 10 more per day
- 820407 confirmed infected --- 2877 more --- 411 more per day

- 8979190 tests taken --- 207770 more --- 29681 more per day but was last updated March 26th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 1599599 vaccinated --- 251268 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 1130258 1st doses + 469341 2nd doses
- 633 hospitalized --- *132 less --- 19 less per day*
- 142 in ICU --- *28 less --- 4 less per day*

Hospitalized had another big decrease and ICU also dropped significantly. Daily fatalities continue to drop and we had more days with under 10 fatalities. Vaccinations had a slight bump but the vast majority were from 1st doses, with less than 10% being 2nd doses.

Because of Easter, we still have high restrictions that will last until after Easter, as it would not make sense to start re-opening now, only to "re-close" during Easter and re-open again later: while this is bad from an economic standpoint, it means we learned from what happened with Christmas and, as such, this Government plan has my FULL SUPPORT.


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## R-T-B (Mar 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> mrna is very new, researched a long time true, but still new in living breathing humans.


In vaccines, yes, but your body has used it daily since the day you were born.


lynx29 said:


> does anyone really understand mrna genetic editing?


I think we understand it far too well.  I'm more concerned about the social implications than any side effects.

Not an expert, just my thoughts.  OT anyways.


----------



## R0H1T (Mar 30, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It should be noted that none of the vaccines actually contain any form of the virus, killed or otherwise, so your reaction to the virus itself should not be cause for concern.


Yeah no that's not accurate *AFAIK*. Unless you were talking specifically about a subset of them, available in the west?


			Explained: What is Covaxin, India’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate; how long before approval?


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 30, 2021)

R0H1T said:


> Yeah no that's not accurate *AFAIK*. Unless you were talking specifically about a subset of them, available in the west?


I was referring to Lynxs options so yes, vaccines available stateside.


----------



## HTC (Apr 5, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

      

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 26134 active cases --- *2045 less --- 292 less per day*
- 780322 recovered --- 4931 more --- 704 more per day
- 16879 fatalities --- 42 more --- 6 more per day
- 823335 confirmed infected --- 2928 more --- 418 more per day

- 9126967 tests taken --- 147777 more --- 24630 more per day but was last updated April 1st and it includes antigen tests as well
- 1833218 vaccinated --- 233619 more --- last updated yesterday but that corresponds to 1281718 1st doses + 551500 2nd doses
- 517 hospitalized --- *116 less --- 17 less per day*
- 117 in ICU --- *25 less --- 4 less per day*

The main report wasn't published Saturday, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Hospitalized had another big decrease and ICU also dropped significantly. Daily fatalities continue to drop and the week average has dropped below 10 for the 1st time in many months.

However, new cases had a slight bump and our R number for the Algarve region is substantially ABOVE 1 (1.16 average), unlike the rest of the country, where it's BELOW 1. Because of this, i think it's premature to move to stage 2 of re-opening, which is exactly what Portugal did today.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 6, 2021)

I'd say China has had a lot more than their claimed 90k cases and 4.6k deaths, considering this:








						Wuhan cemeteries see 320,000 early mourners before Tomb Sweeping Festival: Chinese media | Taiwan News | 2021-04-06 18:21:00
					

320,000 mourners entered Wuhan cemeteries 2 weeks before Tomb Sweeping Festival | 2021-04-06 18:21:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				



More like 90k+ dead.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 6, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> I'd say China has had a lot more than their claimed 90k cases and 4.6k deaths, considering this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



China lying? Say it ain't so.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 6, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> I'd say China has had a lot more than their claimed 90k cases and 4.6k deaths, considering this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's a given. But even then, that's a low number. What about Russia? It's also doctored it's deaths. I don't see the point in accusing China of lying about deaths when it's pretty obvious it has been doing so. It's illogical to single it out. _Making one bogey-man is a strategy many other nations want us to make_. Let's instead consider what China did to control it. Things no other country could (or would dare to try). I mean, some people have issues with wearing a surgical mask. They say they have no effect (can't imagine why all surgeons wear them during surgery...). China took people from their homes and placed them in quarantine. Absolute lack of indiviudual rights. But then, the Chinese cultural system is all about the good of the nation, not the individual. So, by removing individual rights, they stamped on the root problem - transmission. It couldn't happen in a democracy. But then again, democracies are full of entitled ideologies that care not for the greater good, rather their own selfish interests. Sometimes, even democracies need to sacrifice something.

As for deaths. UK has 125k+. Have a go at us for being too lax. US is above half a million deaths. Brazil has 333k+ (and Bolsinaro openly tried to shut down the recording of deaths). Look at some African countries - they deny it altogether. Even to the point it's likely the president of Tanzania - a Covid denier - died of it. It's a really simple thing here - China lies about most things. It's a deeply protective state. What is more insidious is the open 'democracies' that hinder, or otherwise obfuscate their numbers. I'm sort of proud Britain screwed up. We did it in a particularly bumbling British way. But we were honest, mostly.

Is China covering up it's deaths? Yes. Is it the only country doing so? No. Not by a long shot. I'd say it's worse that some nations deny the virus exist, to the point places like Turkmenistan arrest people for speaking of the virus. Oddly enough, the CDC has it on the highest threat for Covid.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 6, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> That's a given. But even then, that's a low number. What about Russia? It's also doctored it's deaths. I don't see the point in accusing China of lying about deaths when it's pretty obvious it has been doing so. It's illogical to single it out. _Making one bogey-man is a strategy many other nations want us to make_. Let's instead consider what China did to control it. Things no other country could (or would dare to try). I mean, some people have issues with wearing a surgical mask. They say they have no effect (can't imagine why all surgeons wear them during surgery...). China took people from their homes and placed them in quarantine. Absolute lack of indiviudual rights. But then, the Chinese cultural system is all about the good of the nation, not the individual. So, by removing individual rights, they stamped on the root problem - transmission. It couldn't happen in a democracy. But then again, democracies are full of entitled ideologies that care not for the greater good, rather their own selfish interests. Sometimes, even democracies need to sacrifice something.
> 
> As for deaths. UK has 125k+. Have a go at us for being too lax. US is above half a million deaths. Brazil has 333k+ (and Bolsinaro openly tried to shut down the recording of deaths). Look at some African countries - they deny it altogether. Even to the point it's likely the president of Tanzania - a Covid denier - died of it. It's a really simple thing here - China lies about most things. It's a deeply protective state. What is more insidious is the open 'democracies' that hinder, or otherwise obfuscate their numbers. I'm sort of proud Britain screwed up. We did it in a particularly, bumbling British way. But we were honest, mostly.
> 
> Is China covering up it's deaths? Yes. Is it the only country doing so? No. Not by a long shot. I'd say it's worse that some nations deny the virus exist, to the point places like Turkmenistan arrest people for speaking of the virus. Oddly enough, the CDC has it on the highest threat for Covid.



my main concern with China is delaying investigators into the Wuhan lab for a full year. and then the WHO comes out and says, no evidence was found in the Wuhan lab that this virus came from there... well no wonder Sherlock... they had a full year to clean up any mistakes they made. lol  and as you put it, China is very very efficient... they could have cleared up that mistake very quickly if they needed to do so. I still find it hard to believe the WHO is so willing to ignore the possibility it came from the Wuhan lab in China, a lab that literally experimented on bats with genetic editing, happens to be the same place the first breakout starts... and 95% of people are asymptomatic, it seems very plausible to me some employees may have had it and then it just spread asymptomatically by accident, then boom explosion. 

however, that's not what bothers me, what bothers me is the WHO and it's unwillingness to even consider the possibility. do I think it's some government operation conspiracy? nope, I don't even think scientists did it intentionally, but I do think it is possible it happened by accident. the WHO is highly overrated organization imo. I voted for Biden, but I don't agree with my tax money going to the WHO, they are puppets. my tax money should be going to free community college for all USA citizens to give people a chance to get out of poverty.


----------



## 64K (Apr 6, 2021)

Johnson and Johnson is the least effective vaccine. They are pushing it for free in grocery stores here. The pushers don't even know about the inner workings of the vaccine. Like the millions of vaccines ruined by mishandling.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 6, 2021)

64K said:


> Johnson and Johnson is the least effective vaccine. They are pushing it for free in grocery stores here. The pushers don't even know about the inner workings of the vaccine. Like the millions of vaccines ruined by mishandling.



I thought j&j had better results in South Africa than AstraZeneca?  and also AZ officially has ties to bloot clots in brain now, J&J does not. 

im getting pfizer personally.  moderna hasn't brought a successful product to market in their entire company history, and have had 10 fda rejections in their entire history. 0 success rate except for this "emergency permit for the vaccine"  i only trust pfizer this round, but to each their own.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> my main concern with China is delaying investigators into the Wuhan lab for a full year. and then the WHO comes out and says, no evidence was found in the Wuhan lab


The main evidence the virus is natural can't be found in any lab.  It's in the virus itself.  It's not like manufactured virii mankind have made before or ever really.

And be warned, this is the stats thread.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 6, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Yes. Is it the only country doing so? No. Not by a long shot.



Note that even Democrats here in the USA are not immune to covering up COVID19 deaths, with the whole nursing home cover-up scandal over at New York. (Yes its a political jab, but I'm pretty sure everyone agrees that Cuomo fucked this one up bad so I don't expect any flame wars over this factoid). 

Its hard enough to compare different countries against each other (as everyone has a slightly different definition of "death". Thanks bureaucracy!! ) And that's before we consider coverups, COVID is a hoaxers, or other issues in our various systems. The question of coverups isn't about "is it happening" or "is it not happening", its "what's the degree to witch it is happening??". 

And that's where %Positive, Mortality rates, and other such statistics come in. My state has 1/2 the death rate as a neighboring state (suggesting that the other state has missed *half* of their COVID19 diagnosis compared to us). Its not like COVID19 decided to kill 1/2 as many people when it crossed the boarder, someone fucked up the statistics and I'm pretty sure its the other guy because fuck those guys and my state is better than them. Hoo Raaahh America / local politics shit.

Seriously though: shady shit is going down with COVID19 reporting everywhere. I'm willing to bet that even here in the USA, that the numbers are suppressed, just as this NYC Cuomo scandal has proven to us.

But nonetheless, we work with the data that is given to us. It may be shit data, but its the best shit data that we've managed to collect thus far. And shit data is better than blindly following your gut and hoping for the best.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 6, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Seriously though: shady shit is going down with COVID19 reporting everywhere. I'm willing to bet that even here in the USA, that the numbers are suppressed, just as this NYC Cuomo scandal has proven to us.



Yep, this is one of the problems with stats in general. For example, the USA has a total of around 30 million positive cases since the pandemic started... we all know, by using basic logic this amount is way way way way higher, but just not everyone cares about getting tested. So it never gets recorded. I'd go as far as to say even 200 million plus have had it it, and since vast majority are asymptomatic, and immunity CAN wear off after 90 days - yeah. It's all a bit shady when you rely solely on the numbers. I just hope the vaccine lasts at least 1-2 years. I'm not looking forward to getting two shots every 12 months...


----------



## TheLostSwede (Apr 7, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> That's a given. But even then, that's a low number. What about Russia? It's also doctored it's deaths. I don't see the point in accusing China of lying about deaths when it's pretty obvious it has been doing so. It's illogical to single it out. _Making one bogey-man is a strategy many other nations want us to make_. Let's instead consider what China did to control it. Things no other country could (or would dare to try). I mean, some people have issues with wearing a surgical mask. They say they have no effect (can't imagine why all surgeons wear them during surgery...). China took people from their homes and placed them in quarantine. Absolute lack of indiviudual rights. But then, the Chinese cultural system is all about the good of the nation, not the individual. So, by removing individual rights, they stamped on the root problem - transmission. It couldn't happen in a democracy. But then again, democracies are full of entitled ideologies that care not for the greater good, rather their own selfish interests. Sometimes, even democracies need to sacrifice something.
> 
> As for deaths. UK has 125k+. Have a go at us for being too lax. US is above half a million deaths. Brazil has 333k+ (and Bolsinaro openly tried to shut down the recording of deaths). Look at some African countries - they deny it altogether. Even to the point it's likely the president of Tanzania - a Covid denier - died of it. It's a really simple thing here - China lies about most things. It's a deeply protective state. What is more insidious is the open 'democracies' that hinder, or otherwise obfuscate their numbers. I'm sort of proud Britain screwed up. We did it in a particularly bumbling British way. But we were honest, mostly.
> 
> Is China covering up it's deaths? Yes. Is it the only country doing so? No. Not by a long shot. I'd say it's worse that some nations deny the virus exist, to the point places like Turkmenistan arrest people for speaking of the virus. Oddly enough, the CDC has it on the highest threat for Covid.


Sorry, but wtaf? I linked to a news piece about something China related and you go off on rant telling me I'm singling out China 
Sorry, I didn't see one about Russia or any other country where there are 320,000 people going to pay respects to the dead, if I had, maybe I would've posted that too.

Also, in North Korea you get shot if they suspect you have the virus, as they claim zero cases.

But what does any of that have to do with the news story I linked to?


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 7, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It should be noted that none of the vaccines actually contain any form of the virus, killed or otherwise, so your reaction to the virus itself should not be cause for concern.



The Johnson and Johnson vaccine certainly does contain the virus in a specific state to activate the immune system and train it.
I stand corrected by my own fact check  Just a spike protein of it.

Its the one I'd prefer as it looks to be the most 'best practices'-vaccine there is atm (effectiveness slightly lower, which can be a good thing), but at the same time, anything is fine, no vaccine is fine to me too. I'm still not in the least bit afraid of covid. My only reason to vaccinate would be herd immunity advantages and reopening society proper.


----------



## Caring1 (Apr 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I still find it hard to believe the WHO is so willing to ignore the possibility it came from the Wuhan lab in China, a lab that literally experimented on bats with genetic editing, happens to be the same place the first breakout starts... and 95% of people are asymptomatic, it seems very plausible to me some employees may have had it and then it just spread asymptomatically by accident, then boom explosion.


Considering the threads nature, do you have verifiable data it started there?


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 7, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> Considering the threads nature, do you have verifiable data it started there?



Do you have verifiable data it started in a meat market? Unfortunately the scientific method works both ways mate.

What interests me more @64K why do you JnJ is worst vaccine? do you have numbers on it with the variants compared to AZ?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Do you have verifiable data it started in a meat market? Unfortunately the scientific method works both ways mate.



Russell's teapot.

The one who makes a claim must show the evidence behind that claim. Otherwise, there's a teapot floating in space between Earth and Venus, and no one can prove me wrong.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 7, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Russell's teapot.
> 
> The one who makes a claim must show the evidence.



So if I claim the four virtues of Plato can lead to a better life, you are not willing to look into it even though I can not provide evidence? neat stuff. this is sort of like when Fauci said you don't need to wear masks in March 2020, and I was screaming at the TV yes wear a mask use basic logic like a philosopher would... don't be a slave to your studies/stats


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> So if I claim the four virtues of Plato can lead to a better life, you are not willing to look into it even though I can not provide evidence? neat stuff. this is sort of like when Fauci said you don't need to wear masks in March 2020, and I was screaming at the TV yes wear a mask use basic logic like a philosopher would... don't be a slave to your studies/stats



There's a difference between hypothesis and fact.

To find facts, one must start with an unverified hypothesis. But as long as the hypothesis remains unverified, it is immoral to announce said hypothesis as a fact. Even when a hypothesis becomes proven by experiments (or lesser forms of evidence, like surveys), there is the chance that said facts were mistaken and proven wrong at a later date.

"It started in a wuhan lab" is a hypothesis. "It started in a Wuhan meat market" is a hypothesis. And as far as I can tell, no one has really came out with evidence for either hypothesis. There could be a 3rd, 4th, or 5th hypothesis that none of us have figured out yet that might be closer to the truth than those two.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> *So if I claim the four virtues of Plato can lead to a better life*, you are not willing to look into it even though I can not provide evidence? neat stuff. this is sort of like when Fauci said you don't need to wear masks in March 2020, and I was screaming at the TV yes wear a mask use basic logic like a philosopher would... don't be a slave to your studies/stats



Don't mix philosphy with science. It never ends well. As for Fauci, and all other scientists (in the West) at that point, the recommendation was based on the novel coronavirus. As that information developed using scientific principles (or even caution), the advice changed. It's very lazy to disregard the changing responses to Covid to 'embolden' other unverifiable claims. But, while we're here, the lab in Wuhan is located specifically to be near the sources of already known animal viruses. It's a case of 'stick a lab where the shit already is'. Similar to how they put oil rigs above oil fields. Or mines above minerals. The Wuhan lab is beside a viral paradise of nature.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 7, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Don't mix philosphy with science. It never ends well. As for Fauci, and all other scientists (in the West) at that point, the recommendation was based on the novel coronavirus. As that information developed using scientific principles (or even caution), the advice changed. It's very lazy to disregard the changing responses to Covid to 'embolden' other unverifiable claims. But, while we're here, the lab in Wuhan is located specifically to be near the sources of already known animal viruses. It's a case of 'stick a lab where the shit already is'. Similar to how they put oil rigs above oil fields. Or mines above minerals. The Wuhan lab is beside a viral paradise of nature.



that makes sense, and I never heard this before. I will concede then, since new information was brought forth.



dragontamer5788 said:


> There's a difference between hypothesis and fact.
> 
> To find facts, one must start with an unverified hypothesis. But as long as the hypothesis remains unverified, it is immoral to announce said hypothesis as a fact. Even when a hypothesis becomes proven by experiments (or lesser forms of evidence, like surveys), there is the chance that said facts were mistaken and proven wrong at a later date.
> 
> "It started in a wuhan lab" is a hypothesis. "It started in a Wuhan meat market" is a hypothesis. And as far as I can tell, no one has really came out with evidence for either hypothesis. There could be a 3rd, 4th, or 5th hypothesis that none of us have figured out yet that might be closer to the truth than those two.



I never said it was fact it came from a lab... I said it was interesting the WHO so quickly dismisses it came from a lab...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I never said it was fact it came from a lab... I said it was interesting the WHO so quickly dismisses it came from a lab...



Hmmm, I guess that's a fair stance to take then. I had to go back and reread the thread.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 7, 2021)

I haven't talked about stats in a while.






It seems like caution has been thrown to the wind. With over 30% of the population 1st dose vaccinated, things are beginning to open up quite strongly around here. 30% isn't good enough for herd immunity however (and you're not fully vaccinated until 2-weeks after your 2nd shot, or roughly 5 (Pfizer) or 6-weeks (Moderna) after your 1st shot), and we can see that despite the relatively high vaccination rate, more and more people continue to get hospitalized for COVID19.

The good news at least, is that the majority of age 65+ have been vaccinated. Hopefully that cuts down on the death rate. And for now: it seems like deaths remain low (but without the vaccine, I'd expect deaths to increase over the next month due to the "pipeline": first you get sick, then hospitalized, then you die). The vaccines are highly effective not only against death, but hospitalizations as well. So seeing a high hospitalization rate really shows off how lax we've gotten around here with regards to restrictions / lockdowns.

With that being said: a fair number of people are taking vacations and traveling. Albeit "safely" by car (eeehhhh, I don't think I can agree with that), but traffic is beginning to go up as the warmer weather and lockdown fatigue are bringing out travelers for sure. In some cases (ex: my Parents, who are now 100% vaccinated: more than 2 weeks after their 2nd shot), I can think that them going out is reasonable. But in others, I can only imagine that they're seeing "other people have fun" and they want to go out, even if they clearly haven't been vaccinated yet. Its not like my parents Facebook pictures taking a Road Trip is private information, they're actively going out and practically bragging about their vaccination status and kind of rubbing it into peoples faces. (Ah well, that's just how my parents are)

I think its tough: some people want to go out and celebrate / party because they're vaccinated and this is all over for them. And... it is. But that's probably setting bad behavior cues for others who aren't in the vaccinated population yet. And as such: the virus is spreading dramatically. On the other hand: this kind of behavior arguably celebrates the vaccine, which would fight against the anti-vaxxer's downer attitudes about all of this.

So its not how I'd go about my life if I were fully vaccinated. But... I guess I can sorta see a silver-lining to it all.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 7, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> I stand corrected by my own fact check  Just a spike protein of it.


Not even that.  Instructions to MAKE the spike protein, delivered by an unrelated modified virus.

It's also a pretty radical approach.


----------



## Night (Apr 7, 2021)

It's made to be the addition to influenza, to earn even more on the vaccines, and it's exaggerated since the start. At least 10 people I know that had this, report the influenza type symptoms (which most likely is!) 2 of those people were also 60+. Our government is reporting *0* influenza cases last and this year, they say it's because of the masks. Hilarious, isn't it? I'd post some scientific journals on mRNA vaccines, but I guess I'll be labeled as one of those anti-vaccine people. People are actually getting arrested in this part of Europe for having opinion of their own, it's a shitshow.

I'm afraid it's here to stay, along with influenza that never went extinct for hundreds of years.


----------



## Vayra86 (Apr 7, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Not even that.  Instructions to MAKE the spike protein, delivered by an unrelated modified virus.
> 
> It's also a pretty radical approach.



Heh maybe I read into a marketing story rather than the real info. Reading more about it, you're quite right.

J&J vaccine was developed here domestically so you can probably get where that came from 



Night said:


> It's made to be the addition to influenza, to earn even more on the vaccines, and it's exaggerated since the start. At least 10 people I know that had this, report the influenza type symptoms (which most likely is!) 2 of those people were also 60+. Our government is reporting *0* influenza cases last and this year, they say it's because of the masks. Hilarious, isn't it? I'd post some scientific journals on mRNA vaccines, but I guess I'll be labeled as one of those anti-vaccine people. People are actually getting arrested in this part of Europe for having opinion of their own, it's a shitshow.
> 
> I'm afraid it's here to stay, along with influenza that never went extinct for hundreds of years.


Its here to stay. Its also not an inconsequential disease. Just today, this news, and you can count on more of this to come to light as time passes. I'm all for not cultivating a culture of fear... but I do like to work and live fact-based - objectively.









						1 in 3 Covid survivors suffers neurological or mental disorders, study finds
					

The study, published in The Lancet Psychiatry, is based on observational data from more than 230,000 patients.




					www.cnbc.com
				




Of course, many factors influence the 1 in 3 and severity and all that. But it seems very likely you're getting some form of permanent damage in some way or another. And influenza has this side effect too, but the chances are half or less than with covid. This is on top of the other organ damage that is inflicted, too. So the summary of all things combined might inspire some confidence that the prevention and mitigation measures are not for nothing. I have my thoughts on each specific one too, but as a full package and considering the general stupidity of the population (averaged out, taking real life into account) we can use the guidelines to not damage ourselves quite a bit more than we'd want.


----------



## metalfiber (Apr 9, 2021)

Video games treat Covid brain fog...hell, i've used video games to treat my brain for 42 years or more.  









						Can specialized video games be a prescription for COVID 'brain fog'?
					

Problems focusing, concentrating and remembering things are often referred to as "brain fog. " For some COVID-19 survivors, it’s one of the most frustrating symptoms lingering for months after testing positive for the virus. But health leaders are beginning to study whether specially designed...




					newschannel9.com


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 9, 2021)

metalfiber said:


> Video games treat Covid brain fog...hell, i've used video games to treat my brain for 42 years or more.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



going for a 30 min bike ride or jog or fast walk without stopping also fixes brain fog. more people should try it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 9, 2021)

Here's a recent map showing all the locations where you can get vaccinated in my state. Yeah, that's a lot of locations. Something to bring up about vaccinations in my area: as shitty as our rollout has been, there's a massive "Trust advantage" that has happened here.

So I've made discussion points before about how every single damn site in my state has a *different* website, with slightly different rules and messages (when I was trying to get my parents vaccinated months ago: some sites were still 1B only, others were serving 1C. I had to read the terms and carefully choose the locations to F5 so that my parents would have the best chance of getting a dose). Same thing today: some locations are 2A, others are on 2B, still other locations are 3 (all adults).

Nonetheless: it seems like various people have "trust" issues with the vaccine. Many are unable to trust a mass-vaccination site, for some reason, but they're willing to trust the doctors that serve them at a local hospital. Others trust pharmacists. Maybe a senior trusts none of these corporations, but trusts the nurse that serves them every day at an assisted living facility. Etc. etc. The benefit to the decentralized system is that we did manage to build trust in a more organic, decentralized manner. IIRC, some locations are *Churches* who have partnered up with the state government, serving more of the community and building greater levels of trust.

Again: a silver lining sort of thing. I think I would personally preferred to have more centralization to this system, and better feelings of fairness in our deployment of the vaccine. But now that we're reaching 40%+ levels of adults vaccinated (Age 16+), I think I can look back and say that there were benefits to this decentralization that I didn't expect.

Next week, facilities are opening up for *all* adults to get vaccinated. It looks like we're reaching endgame, at record-breaking pace. I'm surprised at how quickly things ramped up in just a few short months.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 9, 2021)

Night said:


> It's made to be the addition to influenza, to earn even more on the vaccines, and it's exaggerated since the start. At least 10 people I know that had this, report the influenza type symptoms (which most likely is!) 2 of those people were also 60+. Our government is reporting *0* influenza cases last and this year, they say it's because of the masks. Hilarious, isn't it? I'd post some scientific journals on mRNA vaccines, but I guess I'll be labeled as one of those anti-vaccine people. People are actually getting arrested in this part of Europe for having opinion of their own, it's a shitshow.
> 
> I'm afraid it's here to stay, along with influenza that never went extinct for hundreds of years.


Well you just met someone who caught covid and nearly had to be hospitalized.  I'm sure you'll remember this in your "fact finding"

PS:  I'm in my 30s.

More to the topic: I believe at this point eradication is possible, but due to certain people I only give it a 50/50 chance.  That is of course an opinion based not at all on any good data.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> PS: I'm in my 30s.



35 year old family friend died. Closer to my mom than to me (even though I'm closer to his age but...), that's how it happens sometimes. Sometimes, people are unlucky.

You know what sucks about funerals during COVID19? You can't invite as many people as you normally would. So its a mostly virtual event.

EDIT: Died in February 2021. If COVID19 held out for just another 2 months, he probably would have been vaccinated. Its really a shame how close to the end this all happened. What's most disappointing is that it was a nurse who passed it on to him. If COVID19 held off on that nurse for another few weeks, the nurse probably would have been vaccinated (Nurse gets infected in January 2021-ish, then passed the disease early February, and then he dies a few weeks later). Its really a shame how close this all could have been prevented. Yeah, vaccination of health-care started in late December, but vaccination doses didn't ramp up for another month or two, even for the highest priority)


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## Space Lynx (Apr 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> 35 year old family friend died. Closer to my mom than to me (even though I'm closer to his age but...), that's how it happens sometimes. Sometimes, people are unlucky.
> 
> You know what sucks about funerals during COVID19? You can't invite as many people as you normally would. So its a mostly virtual event.
> 
> EDIT: Died in February 2021. If COVID19 held out for just another 2 months, he probably would have been vaccinated. Its really a shame how close to the end this all happened. What's most disappointing is that it was a nurse who passed it on to him. If COVID19 held off on that nurse for another few weeks, the nurse probably would have been vaccinated (Nurse gets infected in January 2021-ish, then passed the disease early February, and then he dies a few weeks later). Its really a shame how close this all could have been prevented. Yeah, vaccination of health-care started in late December, but vaccination doses didn't ramp up for another month or two, even for the highest priority)



This is sort of what bothers me about this whole thing. BOTH administrations did not invest in scaling up monoclonal antibodies, only in vaccines. Seriously, 6 trillion dollars and we couldn't have monoclonal antibodies, and the many other things rich people get when they get sick bad with covid? It really upsets me. Your friend probably would have lived if he got the same regimen the elites get when they get hospitalized with it, aka monoclonal antibodies, steroids in lungs, and multitude of other things. The truth is nothing has changed, we live in a haves and have nots society, everyone is pretending they care about each other with the free vaccines, but it's not true at all, just an illusion. If they truly cared they would have stockpiles of monoclonal antibodies by now. Have a read through of the $6 trillion dollars in bills, tell me some of that money should not have been used for monoclonal antibodies... 

Also, I find it odd how confident Biden was everyone would be able to get a vaccine by end of April he literally promised it just a couple weeks ago, yet I am looking at the schedules and soonest I can get is late May...


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Also, I find it odd how confident Biden was everyone would be able to get a vaccine by end of April


I think he said everyone would be eligible, not that everyone who wanted one would get one.

That said being said, we are leading the world at the moment in the vaccine effort, politics aside.  The antibody regimine wasn't worth investing in because it has a limited success rate IIRC, and it doesn't scale easily.  Plus it does nothing for the known and unknown permanent side effects of actually getting covid.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I think he said everyone would be eligible, not that everyone who wanted one would get one.



I misunderstood then, my bad. Though that is some shady wording imo, I could say hey everyone go sign up for your vaccine in January you are eligible!!! But you may not get your appointment slot until June as we expect slots to fill up fast... haha but eh it's w.e

and agree to disagree on the monoclonal and other methods that were not invested in. seems like there were plenty of success stories imo


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> and agree to disagree on the monoclonal and other methods that were not invested in. seems like there were plenty of success stories imo


The success or not isn't the only concern.  The main concern is still getting covid, and all the side effects that entails even if you live and get through it.

I wouldn't mind if they had done both but I think it's still best if you have to chose to not get it in the first place.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> The success or not isn't the only concern.  The main concern is still getting covid, and all the side effects that entails even if you live and get through it.
> 
> I wouldn't mind if they had done both but I think it's still best if you have to chose to not get it in the first place.



That was my argument though, you can't tell me all that 6 trillion dollars they spend was purely for covid - I bet if we read the 2000 page documents that are in those bills me and you could figure out a way to cut or limit some things - and create a new fund for monoclonal expansion, without hurting the overall outcome of the other stuff in the spending bills. I know we could. Congress even admits they don't have time to read it all. that's my only argument. there was enough money to do both.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I think he said everyone would be eligible, not that everyone who wanted one would get one.
> 
> *That said being said, we are leading the world at the moment in the vaccine effort*, politics aside.  The antibody regimine wasn't worth investing in because it has a limited success rate IIRC, and it doesn't scale easily.  Plus it does nothing for the known and unknown permanent side effects of actually getting covid.


More so than Israel?  The UK is around 60% of the adult population currently.


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## R-T-B (Apr 10, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> More so than Israel?  The UK is around 60% of the adult population currently.


I meant by sheer number in arms, not percentages, though we aren't bad there either.  Either way it's not a contest, more a joint race where we are all on the same team.  It's good everyone is trying and ideally everyone could get one.


lynx29 said:


> That was my argument though, you can't tell me all that 6 trillion dollars they spend was purely for covid - I bet if we read the 2000 page documents that are in those bills me and you could figure out a way to cut or limit some things - and create a new fund for monoclonal expansion, without hurting the overall outcome of the other stuff in the spending bills. I know we could. Congress even admits they don't have time to read it all. that's my only argument. there was enough money to do both.


I mean yeah, it's obvious there are ways we could've done that (cuts to the armed forces etc) but I am trying to avoid politics man.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 11, 2021)

Anyone have any interesting data to share on the JnJ vaccine?  I'm scheduled to get it Tuesday... a spot opened up. 

I really want pfizer... but also time is of the essence for me, because people are acting reckless where I live... no masks in mass, parties, movie theaters full, bars full, etc... its only a matter of time before the UK variant ignites this place...


----------



## tabascosauz (Apr 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Anyone have any interesting data to share on the JnJ vaccine?  I'm scheduled to get it Tuesday... a spot opened up.
> 
> I really want pfizer... but also time is of the essence for me, because people are acting reckless where I live... no masks in mass, parties, movie theaters full, bars full, etc... its only a matter of time before the UK variant ignites this place...



According to the company (I think) the Pfizer vaccine is pretty ineffective without taking the full dose (1st+booster) within the recommended time frame. Something like only 50% after the initial dose. A lot of countries are significantly extending the time between doses due to having inadequate supplies, governments claim it has no detrimental impact but I wouldn't be surprised if this comes back to bite us all in the ass.

I'd be happy with anything that's not that Astrazeneca vaccine (yikes lmao), but I gotta wait until at least fall. I see a lot of scientists cautioning against not taking the vaccine for fear of getting the AZ vaccine, and I understand the public policy reasons for preventing panic and fear, but a laughably ineffective (relatively), rushed, deadly vaccine deserves no defence or justification.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 11, 2021)

I'd say the best vaccine is the one you can get, as soon as you can get it (short of some iffy third party eastern ones like Sputnik V and such, which I don't have enough info to comment on)

So yeah, your doing fine IMO Lynx.  One shot and done is a bonus too.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Anyone have any interesting data to share on the JnJ vaccine?  I'm scheduled to get it Tuesday... a spot opened up.
> 
> I really want pfizer... but also time is of the essence for me, because people are acting reckless where I live... no masks in mass, parties, movie theaters full, bars full, etc... its only a matter of time before the UK variant ignites this place...



J&J is 70%ish effective against moderate COVID19, but 100% effective against hospitalizations / deaths in the phase 3 trials. So you might still get sick with J&J's level of protection. But if you do get sick, you probably (99.999% sure) won't get hospitalized or die.

So J&J is a very very good vaccine in absolute terms. Preventing most sickness in general and preventing almost all hospitalizations/death. The only "problem" is that those mRNA vaccines came out with incredible statistics (90%+ effectiveness). But 70% effective vs moderate cases is far better than the flu vaccine. So Johnson & Johnson is plenty "good enough".


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 11, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> J&J is 70%ish effective against moderate COVID19, but 100% effective against hospitalizations / deaths in the phase 3 trials. So you might still get sick with J&J's level of protection. But if you do get sick, you probably (99.999% sure) won't get hospitalized or die.
> 
> So J&J is a very very good vaccine in absolute terms. Preventing most sickness in general and preventing almost all hospitalizations/death. The only "problem" is that those mRNA vaccines came out with incredible statistics (90%+ effectiveness). But 70% effective vs moderate cases is far better than the flu vaccine. So Johnson & Johnson is plenty "good enough".




the 99.99% prevention of death/severe hospitalization is good enough for me. that's really all I care about at end of day, lol.  so yeah I am thankful I can get anything so quick... when rest of world can't yet... honestly looking forward to May 11th, which will be the 4 week post date of getting the JnJ shot = full inoculation. Going to be extra careful (double masking, isolation, gloves) until then. As someone who has already had Covid in November (and it kicked my butt) I don't want it again that's for damn sure. and who knows maybe the JnJ will be more effective for me and act as a sort of booster shot. making my efficacy even higher than the trials.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 11, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I'd say the best vaccine is the one you can get, as soon as you can get it (short of some iffy third party eastern ones like Sputnik V and such, which I don't have enough info to comment on)
> 
> So yeah, your doing fine IMO Lynx.  One shot and done is a bonus too.



georgia shut off jnj vaccines two days ago, too many reactions to it. the 4th state i think to do so, i believe one state or county even banned all jnj and switched to pfizer only... i don't know what to do... on one hand pfizer seems to have some crazy symptoms (cold sweats seem most common) or arm pain...  and from what i read georgia and these others are complaining about lightheadedness from jnj... so i am not sure what the big deal is that would require a full shut down.

*bangs head on desk*  i don't know what to do, this whole thing scares me. i just wish i had a traditional flu vaccine option, jnj is closet to that i think but not really...


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> i just wish i had a traditional flu vaccine option, jnj is closet to that i think but not really...


Closest thing is India's option, but it's not available here yet.

Honestly, I had Moderna and the worst part was arm pain.  Injection site hurt for a day or two.  That was all.  YMMV, of course.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 11, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Closest thing is India's option, but it's not available here yet.
> 
> Honestly, I had Moderna and the worst part was arm pain.  Injection site hurt for a day or two.  That was all.  YMMV, of course.



I'm not worried about short term side effects at all, I'm worried about two years from now if they discover that mrna messaging tampering changed the structure of x, y, and z, but it took 2-3 years for this to come to fruition in the body... 99.99% chance I am wrong, but scientists have been wrong before too. 

I'm considering holding out for something similar to that India vaccine. Honestly if I could get that one tomorrow, I would without hesitation.


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 11, 2021)

Arm pain comes as much from a longish sharp needle going into a solid muscle mass as what is in the syringe I think, Lynx these side effects you are talking about for multiple vaccine's are as much about you and your immune system and how it reacts and adapts to the vaccine as it is the actual vaccine itself, I mean 500 people could walk out of a vaccination centre all having had the same vaccine and tell you 3 days later that they had this or that side effect, that does not necessarily mean you will have any of those symptoms, we are all different.

 I had the Pfizer, I felt a little fatigued the next day and poof it went, my 2 closest friends each had the AZ, one had joint ache for 48 hours after, the other got up the following morning and went for a 10 mile run, sometimes it does not pay to over analyse too much.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 11, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Arm pain comes as much from a longish sharp needle going into a solid muscle mass as what is in the syringe I think, Lynx these side effects you are talking about for multiple vaccine's are as much about you and your immune system and how it reacts and adapts to the vaccine as it is the actual vaccine itself, I mean 500 people could walk out of a vaccination centre all having had the same vaccine and tell you 3 days later that they had this or that side effect, that does not necessarily mean you will have any of those symptoms, we are all different.
> 
> I had the Pfizer, I felt a little fatigued the next day and poof it went, my 2 closest friends each had the AZ, one had joint ache for 48 hours after, the other got up the following morning and went for a 10 mile run, sometimes it does not pay to over analyse too much.



aye. I need to just get it done and over with.


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## R-T-B (Apr 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm worried about two years from now if they discover that mrna messaging tampering changed the structure of x, y, and z, but it took 2-3 years for this to come to fruition in the body...


That would be really freaky considering the body uses mrna messaging every day of the week...


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## R-T-B (Apr 12, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Arm pain comes as much from a longish sharp needle going into a solid muscle mass as what is in the syringe I think


Nah, it came from the fact the lady tried to jab it quickly into my arm with a Titanium plate in it without asking "which arm" first at a drive up vaccination event, only to realize aftwards that was impossible.  We tried the other arm and then it all went well.  That one felt normal, largely.  Like any vaccine.

The good news is she replaced the needle so we still used the same dose.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 12, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> That would be really freaky considering the body uses mrna messaging every day of the week...



Well, COVID19 is itself an RNA virus, which certainly has long-lasting effects on the body (measured in months, maybe longer). The mRNA vaccines however have a number of safety factors.

1. mRNA degenerates quickly. To remain stable, mRNA needs to be at -80C or -30C. Bring it up to normal temperatures, and mRNA will disappear in just a day or two (and some mRNA is only stable for minutes !!) .

2. COVID19 gets "around" this problem by replicating faster than it disappears. As long as it infects a cell and recreates itself, a particular virus's "children" or "grandchildren" so to speak, continue to spread.

3. The mRNA vaccines do *not* self-replicate like COVID19. Once they disappear from our bodies, then they are gone entirely.

4. This is why our body uses DNA for long-lasting effects. DNA is a "permanent" code, so to speak. mRNA is typically just a temporary copy of any DNA-code our body needs. That makes it ideal as a temporary vaccine (or a virus: since viruses just want our cells to "execute" the virus, even temporarily)

---------------

So its not so much that mRNA "can't" affect us for a long time. Its that mRNA vaccines are designed not to affect us for a long period. There's always the possibility that there's some kind of weird knock-on effect that cascades into a problem... but it really strains the imagination to even just imagine a problem that would go undetected for months (or years) before suddenly reappearing. Especially because mRNA again, only normally lasts for 1 or 2 days in our body.


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## R-T-B (Apr 12, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Well, COVID19 is itself an RNA virus, which certainly has long-lasting effects on the body (measured in months, maybe longer). The mRNA vaccines however have a number of safety factors.
> 
> 1. mRNA degenerates quickly. To remain stable, mRNA needs to be at -80C or -30C. Bring it up to normal temperatures, and mRNA will disappear in just a day or two.
> 
> ...


I mean yeah I know but I was trying to keep it layman.  This isn't an mrna virus, anyhow.  It's just mrna.


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## Space Lynx (Apr 12, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> That would be really freaky considering the body uses mrna messaging every day of the week...



Indeed it would, but it is 47 *trillion* cells in our bodies and who knows how many trillions of mrna interactions are occurring daily in other parts of the body for other things, China for example does not allow the use of mrna vaccines yet because they have not been tested long enough. I was reading about it earlier tonight. I think the main concern that I gathered from my limited reading on it was that it is possible it changes the way something else works long term that also might use the spike protein, for example, ACE2 inhibitors attach themselves to the lungs almost exactly the same way as a spike protein does to lower blood pressure, hence the need for time to observe... You can't follow the chain reactions of 47 trillion cells, that being said I do think the pfizer vaccine works great, and initial data of so many millions of people in last 4 months seems promising. Again, what if the spike gets confused for an ACE2 inhibitor at some point, as other systems in the body do employ a spike like method to get their jobs done, don't want your body attacking your blood pressure medicine (this is just one example) and while it hasn't attacked it yet, I think this is what China means when it says they would rather observe it longer term before moving ahead with it full steam.

Again I am just implying here, I honestly have no idea, this is just what I gathered on my limited reading. I do not claim to be an expert, simply a cautious consumer. That being said I am leaning towards getting the pfizer vaccine more than the other three main ones. I just wish I had the India one to choose from, I prefer traditional... until mrna proves itself 3 years from now with no long term issues in millions of people.


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## the54thvoid (Apr 12, 2021)

Context is required here. Is there a minimal chance of some issue appearing in a tiny fraction of the population? Maybe. But, look at life as a whole. Health issues. Biggest cause of co-morbidity in UK? Obesity (that's right - eating too much food can kill you, whatever the reason, genetics or otherwise). Heart disease from it and smoking. Alcohol related death. Cancer of all sorts. Traffic accidents. DIY accidents. Spousal abuse. And just life in general promises one thing: one day it will kill you. Gloomy, I know but the persistence of focus on one thing isn't rational. It's how anti-vaxxers work. I know you're not one but that's the method. Sew doubt.

When really, life is full of doubt.


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## HTC (Apr 12, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 25960 active cases --- *174 less --- 25 less per day*
- 784618 recovered --- 4296 more --- 614 more per day
- 16916 fatalities --- 37 more --- 5 more per day
- 827494 confirmed infected --- 4159 more --- 594 more per day

- 9365641 tests taken --- 238674 more --- 39779 more per day but was last updated April 7th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 2121998 vaccinated --- 288780 more --- last updated yesterday but that corresponds to 1520991 1st doses + 601007 2nd doses
- 466 hospitalized --- *51 less --- 7 less per day*
- 113 in ICU --- *4 less --- 1 less per day*

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Daily fatalities continue to drop and the week average has dropped below 10 for the 2nd consecutive week. Unfortunately, new cases had a significant bump the the country R number is now @ 1.02: it's only slightly above 1, but it doesn't bode well @ all.


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## TheLostSwede (Apr 12, 2021)

At least some of you are getting vaccinated. Sure, no spread here, but so far only 400k doses of vaccine for 23 million plus people...
At least it was prioritised for medical staff, so that's something.
India is apparently much worse, as they're running out of vaccines and they also have a rampant spread again.


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## Space Lynx (Apr 12, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Context is required here. Is there a minimal chance of some issue appearing in a tiny fraction of the population? Maybe. But, look at life as a whole. Health issues. Biggest cause of co-morbidity in UK? Obesity (that's right - eating too much food can kill you, whatever the reason, genetics or otherwise). Heart disease from it and smoking. Alcohol related death. Cancer of all sorts. Traffic accidents. DIY accidents. Spousal abuse. And just life in general promises one thing: one day it will kill you. Gloomy, I know but the persistence of focus on one thing isn't rational. It's how anti-vaxxers work. I know you're not one but that's the method. Sew doubt.
> 
> When really, life is full of doubt.



I appreciate you wording it that way. This is all very true, and as I said in my original message I do intend to get the Pfizer vaccine. I don't think there is anything wrong with trying to think more deeply about things either though. Even Fauci got masks wrong in March 2020, humans make mistakes, even the smartest ones. My only argument against what you are trying to say (well some of it) is obesity for example will kill you sure, but it takes like 30-50 years in most people to do so. You are right though, I almost died in a car wreck in 2011. Hard to believe its almost been ten years ago now. Luckily I wasn't hurt and no one else was, but if the car had not spun the way it did... I would be dead. Mindblowing to think about really. I actually haven't driven on highways since, or if I do its very rare and on a need only basis.


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## Tatty_One (Apr 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I appreciate you wording it that way. This is all very true, and as I said in my original message I do intend to get the Pfizer vaccine. I don't think there is anything wrong with trying to think more deeply about things either though. Even Fauci got masks wrong in March 2020, humans make mistakes, even the smartest ones. My only argument against what you are trying to say (well some of it) is *obesity for example will kill you sure, but it takes like 30-50 years in most people t*o do so. You are right though, I almost died in a car wreck in 2011. Hard to believe its almost been ten years ago now. Luckily I wasn't hurt and no one else was, but if the car had not spun the way it did... I would be dead. Mindblowing to think about really. I actually haven't driven on highways since, or if I do its very rare and on a need only basis.


Not entirely true, it can also depend at what age you became obese, it's far too complicated for that, if someone becomes obese in their 50's it is highly likely that if they die because of it or as a compounded effect from it it could be much quicker, example ...... men in their 40's and 50's risk of coronary heart disease increases significantly but with the advent of modern preventative medicines can be curtailed significantly (statins etc), however heart disease, apart from genetic vulnerability usually requires a secondary source (for want of a better term), the most common one being obesity, followed by others such as high blood pressure (often caused by obesity) or smoking etc.  

It's not really a coincidence that Covid preys on the obese and heart/respiratory failure is a fairly common side effect of severe Covid infection.


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## dragontamer5788 (Apr 15, 2021)

Well into our "fourth COVID19 wave", it seems like the steady increase in Hospitalizations has finally plateaued. %Positive is above 5%, which is a problem for stats, and hospitalizations never really went anywhere close to the 2nd wave numbers (~500ish hospitalized). So 4th wave is looking to be > 2nd wave, but less than 3rd or 1st wave.

Is this it? Can I be optimistic now? Maryland has reached 50% Adult 1st dose vaccinated this past week: or 2.1 million 1st-dose vaccinated (6 million total population, ~4-million adults). With warmer weather coming about (outdoor meetings), huge uptake in vaccinations, it feels like we're past the hardest point of this pandemic. Last week, we peaked at over 95,000 vaccinations in one day (this week we're averaging ~70,000, the decline *probably* due to the pause in J&J distribution). Either way, we're averaging in excess of 1% population-per-day (or ~1.75% of the >Age16 crowd)

Vaccination centers remain tightly booked: but my social circle (younger under 35 folks) seem able to get slots as long as we try to F5 for a bit. Its not "easy" to get a slot, but certainly possible. There seem to be multiple 3rd party free websites that help search for timeslots, with varying amounts of success (since the official government website really, really sucks for this). As discussed from months ago: the system remains mostly the same. The various "mass vaccination" sites (~6 of them in our state) do have one unified website (back when I got things for my parents: each of the mass vaccination sites were a different webpage), so its a wee bit easier now. But CVS, Giant, Riteaid, Walgreens, Walmart, Safeway, and each individual hospital system all have different websites and reservation systems.

A lot of them are still on priority 2B or 2C, so it sucks to go through the whole website registration process and then see that they aren't covering phase 3 (general public yet). Ah well, in that case, just go down to the next website and start over. Its highly annoying that this "state-wide priority phase" thing is so ad-hoc. The governor announces one thing, but the pharmacies / hospital systems do something else. I understand why this happens (There's more vaccine hesitancy in the rural-parts of the state: so those areas are opening up to phase 3 faster. The urban areas are staying behind, focusing on the prioritized populations since the vaccination rate seems higher). So having the different organizations make a *local* decision makes sense to some degree, but it makes it a lot more annoying to get a vaccine.


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## Space Lynx (Apr 17, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Not entirely true, it can also depend at what age you became obese, it's far too complicated for that, if someone becomes obese in their 50's it is highly likely that if they die because of it or as a compounded effect from it it could be much quicker, example ...... men in their 40's and 50's risk of coronary heart disease increases significantly but with the advent of modern preventative medicines can be curtailed significantly (statins etc), however heart disease, apart from genetic vulnerability usually requires a secondary source (for want of a better term), the most common one being obesity, followed by others such as high blood pressure (often caused by obesity) or smoking etc.
> 
> It's not really a coincidence that Covid preys on the obese and heart/respiratory failure is a fairly common side effect of severe Covid infection.



I'm getting the pfizer vaccine tomorrow. Very excited. Hopefully in 3 weeks I get my second shot, and then 1 week after that I am safe... at least for quite some time.  Will be refreshing not having to worry about it anymore for awhile (still going to wear mask everywhere, probably will wear mask everywhere in public places for life after this - not just cause of covid, but also flu, bugs in general) I mean think about it... no one ever talks to each other in a grocery store anyway, so why bother not wearing it.


----------



## HTC (Apr 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm getting the pfizer vaccine tomorrow. Very excited. *Hopefully in 3 weeks I get my second shot, and then 1 week after that I am safe... at least for quite some time.*  Will be refreshing not having to worry about it anymore for awhile (still going to wear mask everywhere, probably will wear mask everywhere in public places for life after this - not just cause of covid, but also flu, bugs in general) I mean think about it... no one ever talks to each other in a grocery store anyway, so why bother not wearing it.



No ...

Remember that the Pfizer vaccine has a 95% efficacy rate, which means 1 out of every 20 people still get the virus DESPITE the vaccine. Since being one of those 20 is basically a "bad" lottery, better to err on the side of caution and CONTINUE to take whatever precautions you have been taking, for @ LEAST a few months longer. This goes for ANY of the vaccines.

My parents took their 1st dose last Wednesday and are supposed to take their 2nd in July (so long after 1st dose????), and i've been giving them the EXACT SAME advice.


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## Space Lynx (Apr 17, 2021)

HTC said:


> No ...
> 
> Remember that the Pfizer vaccine has a 95% efficacy rate, which means 1 out of every 20 people still get the virus DESPITE the vaccine. Since being one of those 20 is basically a "bad" lottery, better to err on the side of caution and CONTINUE to take whatever precautions you have been taking, for @ LEAST a few months longer. This goes for ANY of the vaccines.
> 
> My parents took their 1st dose last Wednesday and are supposed to take their 2nd in July (so long after 1st dose????), and i've been giving them the EXACT SAME advice.



its still 100% prevented death and 100% prevented hospitalization for pfizer. and i just said i intend to wear masks in all public places....


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## ThrashZone (Apr 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm getting the pfizer vaccine tomorrow. Very excited. *Hopefully in 3 weeks I get my second shot*, and then 1 week after that I am safe... at least for quite some time.  Will be refreshing not having to worry about it anymore for awhile (still going to wear mask everywhere, probably will wear mask everywhere in public places for life after this - not just cause of covid, but also flu, bugs in general) I mean think about it... no one ever talks to each other in a grocery store anyway, so why bother not wearing it.


Hi,
Thought it was no longer than 10 days after the first shot you must have the second.


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## R-T-B (Apr 17, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Thought it was no longer than 10 days after the first shot you must have the second.


For Moderna at least it's 28 days.  No idea on pfizer, but I think 10 days sounds a bit fast.


----------



## rtwjunkie (Apr 17, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Thought it was no longer than 10 days after the first shot you must have the second.





R-T-B said:


> For Moderna at least it's 28 days.  No idea on pfizer, but I think 10 days sounds a bit fast.


The Pfizer-BioNTech is 21 days between 1st and 2nd.  All my scheduling options for both vaccines were 21 days, and they confirmed at the time of the 1st one.


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## 64K (Apr 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> What interests me more @64K why do you JnJ is worst vaccine? do you have numbers on it with the variants compared to AZ?



Sorry. I missed your question before. I don't always get my alerts for some reason.

I was just basing it on effectiveness at preventing catching Covid 19


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## Space Lynx (Apr 17, 2021)

64K said:


> Sorry. I missed your question before. I don't always get my alerts for some reason.
> 
> I was just basing it on effectiveness at preventing catching Covid 19



agreed, after more research (you can end up in hospital often with jnj still) and with pfizer its still 100% no hospital... so I am doing pfizer.    tomorrow actually


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Hopefully in 3 weeks I get my second shot, and then 1 week after that I am safe



*2 weeks* after second shot is the point at which the studies were done.

But supposedly, protection starts up ~2-weeks after your first shot. Its not an "on/off" switch, its your body slowly getting used to the vaccine and building its protection over those multiple weeks. So starting at ~2-weeks after 1st shot you're beginning to have COVID19 protections, then in the weeks that follow (week 3, 4, 5, 6), your body gets stronger and stronger.

Lots and lots of people are still getting COVID19 in the first week or two after a vaccine. Its called a "breakout case". We also now have enough data that people are still getting COVID19 (and dying/getting hospitalized) even after getting fully vaccinated (5 to 6 weeks after 1st shot, with 2nd shot followup). But this number is in the "10s-per-million" (or 0.001% probability) region. And that's mostly immunocompromised invidivudals: their body isn't strong enough to build resistance anymore, even with vaccine assistance.



> its still 100% prevented death and 100% prevented hospitalization for pfizer. and i just said i intend to wear masks in all public places....



100% of phase 3 tests (30,000 people tested). Which was too small to capture the difference between 99% and 100%. Now with millions of people getting the vaccine, we know how far into 99.99+% we are actually getting.

Nothing is ever certain in life or science. But going well above 99.99% is about as good as we can get.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 17, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> *2 weeks* after second shot is the point at which the studies were done.



pretty sure moderna was two weeks, and pfizer was one week after second shot for the 100% marker. and yeah that marker is 99% now, but ill take that over nothing at all


----------



## HTC (Apr 19, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 25387 active cases --- *573 less --- 82 less per day*
- 788669 recovered --- 4051 more --- 579 more per day
- 16945 fatalities --- 29 more --- 4 more per day
- 831001 confirmed infected --- 3507 more --- 501 more per day

- 9737167 tests taken --- 371526 more --- 41281 more per day but was last updated April 16th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 2586728 vaccinated --- 464730 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 1933854 1st doses + 652874 2nd doses
- 428 hospitalized --- *38 less --- 5 less per day*
- 109 in ICU --- *4 less --- 1 less per day*

The main report wasn't published on the weekend, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Daily fatalities continue to drop, albeit slightly, and the week average has dropped below 10 for the 3rd consecutive week. New cases dropped noticeably and R number dropped from 1.02 to 1.0 on average. Vaccinations ramped up significantly but only 1st doses, with roughly one out of every nine vaccinations this week being 2nd dose.

On a more personal note, my parents got their 1st dose last Wednesday: they are supposed to get the 2nd dose in July ...


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## R-T-B (Apr 19, 2021)

Getting my second dose of Moderna this wednesday, FWIW.  Hope it doesn't make me feel punk at all, because that's when my new 3070 arrives lol.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 19, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Getting my second dose of Moderna this wednesday, FWIW.  Hope it doesn't make me feel punk at all, because that's when my new 3070 arrives lol.



It just varies person to person, my mom's second Moderna shot was horrible experience. She was in brutal pain. My Dad's second Moderna shot, he had a brief fever for a few hours and little arm pain but was better the next day. 

Hope it goes well for you! Congrats on the 3070.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 19, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> It just varies person to person, my mom's second Moderna shot was horrible experience. She was in brutal pain. My Dad's second Moderna shot, he had a brief fever for a few hours and little arm pain but was better the next day.
> 
> Hope it goes well for you! Congrats on the 3070.


Yeah my mom and dads are like mirrors of your experience but inverted as far as dad having it worse, mom got off easy.

We'll see, thanks!


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 23, 2021)

FDA inspectors find "brown residue" and other violations in plant making Johnson & Johnson vaccine
					

Security footage showed peeling paint and workers carrying open bags of medical waste.




					www.cbsnews.com
				




RIP glad I trusted my instincts and went with Pfizer over JnJ awhile back... this is why when people tell you they are all safe... you should take it with a grain of salt, because those people aren't personally inspecting the factories and every single inch of development process. this is why philosophy needs to be taught again. Socrates = Question Everything.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> FDA inspectors find "brown residue" and other violations in plant making Johnson & Johnson vaccine
> 
> 
> Security footage showed peeling paint and workers carrying open bags of medical waste.
> ...





> Nothing made at the factory for J&J has been distributed, the FDA noted. The nearly 8 million doses of J&J vaccine given in the U.S. came from Europe.



While this is a black eye for my locality (Baltimore is down the road from me), it has nothing to do with safety. The main issue is that the Baltimore plant was supposed to deliver 400-million vaccines (both AZ and J&J). That's 400-million doses that are now in limbo because of these plant violations.

If anything: it shows that the FDA / safety inspections are working. A bit of an embarrassment to the plant and maybe Baltimore as well. Its a big issue for any country who was planning on getting AZ or J&J vaccines, since we've basically lost hundreds-of-millions of factory capacity.



> The Baltimore factory halted all production late last week at the request of the FDA. The agency hasn't given emergency approval to the factory, which is needed before any vaccine material made there can be distributed.



Factory is halted. No emergency approval at all. No doses to be distributed anywhere. Its shut down, so no safety issues from the plant can possibly come about.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 23, 2021)

is there any news if the Moderna vaccine is robust against the south african variant yet? it worries me that moderna seems to be silent on this still... Pfizer seems to be clear cut that is its good against the variants, just not as good as the original. which is good enough for me.

sound _good_? lol


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> is there any news if the Moderna vaccine is robust against the south african variant yet? it worries me that moderna seems to be silent on this still... Pfizer seems to be clear cut that is its good against the variants, just not as good as the original. which is good enough for me.
> 
> sound _good_? lol








						Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Retains Neutralizing Activity Against Emerging Variants First Identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa | Moderna, Inc.
					

Out of an abundance of caution, Moderna launches clinical program to boost immunity to emerging variants Manuscript posted to preprint server; company to host conference call once manuscript is available CAMBRIDGE, Mass. --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 25, 2021-- Moderna Inc .




					investors.modernatx.com
				




B.1.351 is South Africa. The study behind this press-report is a few months old.  Both mRNA vaccines seem effective against all known variants at that time. I've seen follow ups on P.1 (Brazil variant). So they're "effective", but "not as effective", because the virus has slightly mutated.

These tests are faster lab tests. They grab the blood of some vaccinated individuals, and drop the virus into their blood and see how the blood reacts (This study was on antibodies, one of the many defense mechanisms in our blood). Its not a full test (like Phase 3) where a proper efficacy % can be determined. What *is* determined is that a vaccinated individual's blood (or at least, the antibodies in the blood) identifies the threat and attacks the virus.

TL;DR: Antibodies continue to work in that study. There are also T-cells, Killer-T cells, Neutrophils, and other stuff in our blood's defense system (and those "other stuff" were not tested in this particular study). Needless to say, our bodies are very complex, and a study can only look at one or two elements of our bodies at a time. A complete "challenge study" would be best (aka: inject the virus into a human), but those trials take a long time to conduct and have somewhat questionable morality.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 23, 2021)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/23/cdc-recommends-covid-vaccine-pregnant-women/
		




> Pregnant women confused by conflicting recommendations regarding coronavirus vaccination over the past few months now have clear guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Get the shots.
> 
> At a White House briefing on the coronavirus Friday, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said that vaccination surveillance systems showed “no safety concerns” for more than 35,000 women in their third trimester or for their babies.



The Phase 3 trials last year did NOT have pregnant women as part of the trials. Today, it sounds like the CDC has finished their study on 35,000 pregnant women, and have concluded that the vaccines are safe for them.

Next step: children (studies are still ongoing, but it is expected that the studies will be completed before the new school year).


----------



## Splinterdog (Apr 23, 2021)

Most of the vaccines available in Argentina, where I live, are the Sputnik V from Russia, so when I finally receive it, which may be a few more weeks, don't be surprised if I start posting in Cyrillic.


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## dragontamer5788 (Apr 23, 2021)

Wow. Lots and lots of vaccine news today.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/23/johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-blood-clots/
		


CDC advisory board recommends that J&J vaccines should resume with a warning about rare blood clots. IIRC, Its technically the FDA's job to resume the distribution of J&J, but they're expected to follow the CDC's recommendation soon (maybe as early as the weekend). (EDIT: The article suggests the CDC Director has the final say, which... wasn't what I expected. I'll have to double-check the org charts again...)



> There was an initial concern that people with the condition might be treated with the anticoagulant heparin, which can worsen it. One reason for the pause was to alert health officials to use similar non-heparin drugs and intravenous immunoglobulin.



The main benefit from this whole "pause" seems to be debate and discussion around this "heparin" treatment... or to prevent heparin more precisely. Blood clots are normally treated with heparin, but that drug would *worsen* these weird J&J blood clots. As long as people are aware of these rare blood clots, then we should be able to treat those rare cases correctly.


----------



## KLiKzg (Apr 23, 2021)

Splinterdog said:


> Most of the vaccines available in Argentina, where I live, are the Sputnik V from Russia, so when I finally receive it, which may be a few more weeks, don't be surprised if I start posting in Cyrillic.


----------



## HTC (Apr 26, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 24792 active cases --- *595 less --- 85 less per day*
- 792685 recovered --- 4016 more --- 574 more per day
- 16965 fatalities --- 20 more --- 3 more per day
- 834442 confirmed infected --- 3441 more --- 492 more per day

- 10287080 tests taken --- 549913 more --- 68739 more per day but was last updated April 24th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 2913895 vaccinated --- 327167 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 2125721 1st doses + 788174 2nd doses
- 348 hospitalized --- *80 less --- 11 less per day*
- 98 in ICU --- *11 less --- 2 less per day*

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Daily fatalities continue to drop, albeit slightly, and the week average has dropped below 10 for the 4th consecutive week. New cases dropped slightly and R number dropped from 1.0 to 0.99 on average. Roughly 1/5th of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 7.7% has received both doses.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 26, 2021)

Hopefully the final "bump" for our area. Vaccinations are rolling out pretty smoothly now (All the issues with J&J kind of didn't matter, because J&J didn't have much manufacturing capability spun up yet). Cases are also declining in the USA overall.


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## xkm1948 (Apr 27, 2021)

Situation in India is bad. We are waiting for India colleagues to upload their sampled covid genome. This sucks.


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## Space Lynx (Apr 27, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Situation in India is bad. We are waiting for India colleagues to upload their sampled covid genome. This sucks.



yep.. I'm waiting to see if the vaccines are effective against this variant at all or if the virus has finally found a way around the mrna tech... a new kind of spike perhaps...

let's just say... im glad my job is remote...


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## xkm1948 (Apr 27, 2021)

Spike protein itself don’t change too much, it is half of the key to enter human cell. Human are not evolving the receptor protein overnight so virus will stick to the same human receptor. mRNA vaccine can quickly be tweaked to reflect changes in spike protein sequences. Problem is not every country is fortunate enough to afford mRNA vaccine.


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## R-T-B (Apr 27, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Problem is not every country is fortunate enough to afford mRNA vaccine.


That, and I feel where we are fortunate enough to have them, regulatory hurdles could slow the "cut and paste" approach down" by treating it as a new drug.


----------



## xkm1948 (Apr 27, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> That, and I feel where we are fortunate enough to have them, regulatory hurdles could slow the "cut and paste" approach down" by treating it as a new drug.



Yes. There will be some speeding up, but all the animal models will have to repeated again to a certain degree.


The sequence design for the mRNA vaccine is very well optimized, factoring human cells gene expression regulation. I seriously doubt the pharma companies would willingly share those sequences and what modifications they did to the nucleotides.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 27, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> That, and I feel where we are fortunate enough to have them, regulatory hurdles could slow the "cut and paste" approach down" by treating it as a new drug.



there is still risk in this approach.  in 2018 the mrna vaccine was first tried in humans for example. and the scientists for our own government stated below that long term data was still needed, but those same scientists changed their mind apparently when it came to covid mrna... science isn't supposed to be changed due to emotions/economics/desperation so I think there is still some wait and see with mrna... I mean our own government scientists said as much, as you can see below.

"Long term safety and immunogenicity data from this and other future trials are required to confidently judge the impact of RNA vaccines on the influenza virus vaccine field; thus the coming years will be critical for this new vaccine approach."   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6027361/


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## R-T-B (Apr 27, 2021)

Risk vs reward at play.  The odds of something bad happening from the vaccine are far lower than covid killing you.


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## xkm1948 (Apr 27, 2021)

RNA as vesicle to deliver desired effect has been around for quite a while. Completely synthesized RNA molecules have been used in treating rare genetic disorders in human with great success. mRNA or RNA is nothing to be afraid of. We just need some of that spike protein in our body for immune system to do the work. Most efficient way to get it inside is mRNA. After all the core concept is super simple: mRNA to protein. That is it.

Getting off track. Happy to take this off thread via PM if needed.


----------



## the54thvoid (Apr 27, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Situation in India is bad. We are waiting for India colleagues to upload their sampled covid genome. This sucks.



Yeah, it looked like they had it under control (as much as that means) but relaxed things and made two enormous mistakes. But then they had election rallies and there was at least one major religious gathering, and it was ginormous. 









						India: Hindu festival turns superspreader event  – DW – 04/15/2021
					

India is recording huge jumps in daily coronavirus infections while facing vaccine and hospital bed shortages. Loosely enforced restrictions are being blamed for fueling the soaring infection rate.




					www.dw.com


----------



## Tatty_One (Apr 27, 2021)

@lynx29 Pretty much every vaccine or drug ever made has a trial period, if it were a 10 year trial period there would be millions more deaths across all diseases, nobody can predict long term effects in terms of decades ahead so what do we do?  Do people who choose to live in large busy cities mitigate their decision by placing financial security (work) over potential long term health effects such as respiratory disease from pollution, do millions of people with cancer refuse treatment because some treatments for some cancers can have horrendous side effects, I understand where your comments are coming from but in reality you are not really talking about a vaccine, you are talking about life and the choices we make.


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## 64K (Apr 27, 2021)

I keep hearing that the vaccines are helping in a major way to bring down the new cases of Covid 19 infections and I think there is some truth to it. New infections are now under 50 per day in my county of 370,000 people. At the height of the Pandemic there were well over 400 new infections per day. Very encouraging.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 27, 2021)

64K said:


> I keep hearing that the vaccines are helping in a major way to bring down the new cases of Covid 19 infections and I think there is some truth to it. New infections are now under 50 per day in my county of 370,000 people. At the height of the Pandemic there were well over 400 new infections per day. Very encouraging.



Yep I do believe the vaccine has saved the day.


----------



## R0H1T (Apr 27, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Yeah, it looked like they had it under control (as much as that means) but relaxed things and made two enormous mistakes. But then they had election rallies and there was at least one major religious gathering, and it was ginormous.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Pretty much every event in India is a super spreader event, at any point in time (say over 24 hours) normally there'd be 100 million people travelling across this state & yeah I'm being quite liberal by counting one person multiple times depending on their (round) trips.

Anyway the point is there's no evidence, as yet, this fueled the current wave but it was a major contributor especially election rallies. I'd argue the bigger contributor was *general public taking it easy partying like usual, marriages, religious/family & other gatherings* ~ this as far I'm concerned is the biggest reason for the recent upsurge. Lots of people stopped waring masks & thought hey YOLO


----------



## HTC (Apr 27, 2021)

Since Portugal began having deaths from COVID back in March 2020, we had only ONE DAY with zero deaths, and that was August 3rd 2020. Until yesterday, that is: we had zero deaths yesterday too.

By having the most vulnerable vaccinated 1st (after medical personnel), we have made sure the worst outcome happens less and less often, as evidenced by the fact that the daily fatalities number fell so dramatically.

That said, it's not only the most vulnerable that get hospitalized with COVID so, if left unchecked, hospitals can STILL get overrun which is why it's way *WAY too early* to let our guards down: if hospitals get heavily stressed, there starts to be a shortage of medical personnel to attend to the sheer volume of people needing medical attention, and that's when the daily fatalities REALLY start to climb.


----------



## Caring1 (Apr 27, 2021)

64K said:


> I keep hearing that the vaccines are helping in a major way to bring down the new cases of Covid 19 infections and I think there is some truth to it. New infections are now under 50 per day in my county of 370,000 people. At the height of the Pandemic there were well over 400 new infections per day. Very encouraging.


That's a very small population and it's reasonable to assume the vaccination is the reason for the drop in daily new infections, or it could be that the more people that are infected, the less new cases will be recorded.
Eventually once everyone gets it, there will be no new cases.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 27, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> Eventually once everyone gets it, there will be no new cases.



that's fantasy land talk. herd immunity will never be achieved imo. I'm getting it for one reason only, it will prevent my death if i catch a variant. the original covid kicked my ass and I was scared to death.  that's only reason I am doing it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Apr 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> that's fantasy land talk. herd immunity will never be achieved imo. I'm getting it for one reason only, it will prevent my death if i catch a variant. the original covid kicked my ass and I was scared to death.  that's only reason I am doing it.



We've wiped out other diseases like smallpox before. It would take an enormous amount of effort, but we can absolutely wipe out COVID19 if we put our minds to it and invest in the problem.

Its not an issue of "can we do it", its an issue of "should we do it?". I think the current consensus seems to be as you say: "just" vaccinate enough people to prevent our hospitals from overflowing. Which is a lot cheaper than fully wiping out the disease.

Still though: I want to remind people that wiping out diseases is entirely possible. Smallpox in particular had R0 of 3.5 to 6 by various estimates (far more than COVID19). So Smallpox was more virulent and spread much faster than COVID19. Smallpox was also more deadly (historically: 30% death rate), so the calculus on wiping out the disease was more obvious.


----------



## Space Lynx (Apr 30, 2021)

I read earlier today that Moderna is the only that prevents severe hospitalization 100%, Pfizer has fallen down to second place, and JnJ a very far third.

Can anyone confirm this? I'm considering getting Moderna now...


----------



## MentalAcetylide (May 1, 2021)

Here's my take on the whole Covid-19 thing: 

If you did not get infected by Covid-19 and refuse to be vaccinated when you have the opportunity, you don't understand much about viruses/vaccines AND you're an idiot. By not getting vaccinated, you provide a breeding ground for the virus to multiply and spread. The more people that get infected, the more chances for mutations to occur. The more mutations that occur, the higher the possibility that current vaccines become less effective and we end up right back where we started way back when this shit-storm hit. Do you want a repeat of lockdowns and another year of economic hardship that could send economies tanking lower than whale shit?

If you don't need to go out traveling, don't go, period. Unless you're wearing a M.O.P.P. 4 mask or HAZMAT suit, you're not 100% protected. Those rinky dink masks we use are not 100% reliable(especially if in close proximity to others) and are just part of a mitigation standard being used to minimize/slow the spread so hospitals are able to handle the extra load of sick people requiring medical treatment until we can get everyone vaccinated. 

Use your head or you may be dead?



lynx29 said:


> I read earlier today that Moderna is the only that prevents severe hospitalization 100%, Pfizer has fallen down to second place, and JnJ a very far third.
> 
> Can anyone confirm this? I'm considering getting Moderna now...


Well I got my second shot of Pfizer a few weeks ago and I'm certainly not going to deliberately test it. I say take what you can get now and then see about what options are available if they recommend a booster shot later on. Its too early to tell, but I would lean more towards the 2-shot vaccines(Moderna, Pfizer) vs. the one-shot vaccines(Johnson & Johnson). You can't always go by their statistics... like they say, "There's lies, damn lies, and Statistics!"


----------



## HTC (May 3, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 23579 active cases --- *1213 less --- 173 less per day*
- 796721 recovered --- 4036 more --- 577 more per day
- 16977 fatalities --- 12 more --- 2 more per day
- 837277 confirmed infected --- 2835 more --- 405 more per day

- 10522254 tests taken --- 235174 more --- 47037 more per day but was last updated April 29th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 3324285 vaccinated --- 410390 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 2451606 1st doses + 872679 2nd doses
- 311 hospitalized --- *37 less --- 5 less per day*
- 85 in ICU --- *13 less --- 2 less per day*

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Daily fatalities continue to drop, albeit slightly, the week average has dropped below 10 for the 5th consecutive week but we had *TWO days with ZERO DEATHS*: we only had 1 day with zero deaths prior to this week since we 1st started having fatalities to this virus in March 2020 . New cases dropped more noticeably and the R number dropped from 0.99 to 0.98 on average. Almost 1/4th of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 8.7% has received both doses.


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## 64K (May 3, 2021)

I'm going to take the Moderna vaccine. J&J has the worst stats.


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## Space Lynx (May 3, 2021)

64K said:


> I'm going to take the Moderna vaccine. J&J has the worst stats.



Moderna and Pfizer seem to be about equal on all the stats really. I googled effective percentages that are up to date... and still can't find anything, for some reason only the old trial stats still seem to exist (specifically for the hospitalization rate of those with vaccine).


----------



## R-T-B (May 4, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Moderna and Pfizer seem to be about equal on all the stats really. I googled effective percentages that are up to date... and still can't find anything, for some reason only the old trial stats still seem to exist (specifically for the hospitalization rate of those with vaccine).


I don't think a more recent study has been completed.  But really, just get any of them Lynx.  They are all better than not being vaccinated.


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## Space Lynx (May 5, 2021)

World’s most vaccinated nation reintroduces curbs as cases surge
					

Seychelles, which has fully vaccinated more of its population against COVID-19 than any other country, has closed schools and canceled sporting activities for two weeks as infections surge.




					www.japantimes.co.jp
				




So statistically speaking, it looks like the vaccine is not working...

It would be nice to know the percentages of which vaccines were used in the Seychelles... from the sounds of it, it seems like almost no mRNA vaccine was used... which is probably why it's closing down again and the lockdown being done again.  Seems to me the non-mRNA vaccines simply don't work well enough.

Pfizer and Moderna need to save the world, the answer seems clear to me now.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> World’s most vaccinated nation reintroduces curbs as cases surge
> 
> 
> Seychelles, which has fully vaccinated more of its population against COVID-19 than any other country, has closed schools and canceled sporting activities for two weeks as infections surge.
> ...


As I understand it they vaccinated with a pretty high infection rate and few restrictions in place, if that is the case then it does not really matter what vaccines they were using, probably a load of already infected/Asymptomatic people got vaccinated and those that weren't possibly caught the virus in the proceeding couple of weeks, was it Chile or Venezuela that was similar? although they were in Lockdown at some point but opened up well before the majority of people had got the vaccine.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> World’s most vaccinated nation reintroduces curbs as cases surge
> 
> 
> Seychelles, which has fully vaccinated more of its population against COVID-19 than any other country, has closed schools and canceled sporting activities for two weeks as infections surge.
> ...



Sinopharm's vaccine is well known to only have a 50%ish efficacy rate. 50% efficacy with 60% vaccinated means its only effectively 30% herd immunity. So the USA (with a 95% effective vaccine: Moderna / Pfizer) who is 40% vaccinated is ahead (95% * 40% == 38% effective).

Remember the R0-values: we are only really safe once we reach 1 - (1/R0) effective immunity. That is 66% for R0 == 3 (initial estimates, but probably an underestimate now that mutations are around), or 75% for R0 == 4, or 80% for R0 == 5.

Sinopharm doesn't have enough efficacy for herd immunity. But its still a useful tool at preventing hospitalizations and death. Especially because the highly-effective vaccines are expensive (3x the cost) and currently supply-constrained. Having the poorer countries take Sinopharm is still a net-win for the world. At least while the Moderna / Pfizer vaccines ramp up in production. 30% effective herd immunity is better than 0% after all.

-----------

Sinopharm is far better than nothing however. Because those people have a much lower chance of dying and/or going to the hospital. COVID19 will continue to spread even in a Sinopharm-vaccinated country. But far, far fewer people will die. Once again, I bring up Smallpox as a historical example. Smallpox killed 30% of its victims, but only 1% of the vaccinated population. (Yes, you needed a vaccine to reach COVID19-levels of death). Going from 30% deaths to 1% deaths was a huge advantage for vaccinated populations however. It was an imperfect vaccine, but still a great tool.

Furthermore: those who were Smallpox vaccinated still got and spread Smallpox around. Just less so compared to non-vaccinated.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 5, 2021)

I still think mRNA has saved the day more than anything else, but I understand your arguments too. As far economies not collapsing goes, if I were running a country, I think I'd be switching over to mRNA. (this is just from a strategic standpoint economically speaking)


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I still think mRNA has saved the day more than anything else, but I understand your arguments too. As far economies not collapsing goes, if I were running a country, I think I'd be switching over to mRNA. (this is just from a strategic standpoint economically speaking)



mRNA is only useful if you have the strategic supercomputers (and the research programs / computer programs that run on those computers) needed to compute the protein folds. There's a reason why only the USA is manufacturing these.

There's discussion about whether or not the US should release the patent to the mRNA vaccine. I'm not sure what to think of it. "Trust in big-pharma" is probably wrong. But there's something to be said about why something like this is incredibly valuable. If our patent system came up with the solution, then yes, it was the success of our patent system... and we shouldn't undermine it (so that the next disease can also be attacked with our patent system).

EDIT: We know what the virus looks like: https://github.com/berthubert/bnt162b2/blob/master/ncov-s.fasta

We know what the vaccine looks like: https://github.com/berthubert/bnt162b2/blob/master/vaccine-s.fasta

The DNA-printers that make this stuff are available for 15000 EUR or so, probably more for a manufacturing-quality version. Its now a question of patent law, and the supercomputer infrastructure needed to support these kinds of designs.

EDIT2: This blog post talks about the manufacturing details: https://blog.jonasneubert.com/2021/...fizer-biontech-and-moderna-covid-19-vaccines/. A major step is verification of all of these molecules: ensuring we've got the right mRNA in the vat-of-proteins before we inject it into our veins. There are also lots of special equipment (mRNA is good and all, but it needs to be combined with lipids before our body accepts it. And very few people know the details of that magic process).


----------



## Space Lynx (May 5, 2021)

Watch: India's leader Narendra Modi holds rally as coronavirus tears across country - CNN Video
					

CNN's Clarissa Ward reports from New Delhi on the growing criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his failure to control a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in India.




					www.cnn.com
				




_Millions gather in Hindu ritual as coronavirus surges in India_

So India apparently hasn't learned it's lesson yet and is aiming to achieve herd immunity through other means... sigh...


----------



## 64K (May 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Watch: India's leader Narendra Modi holds rally as coronavirus tears across country - CNN Video
> 
> 
> CNN's Clarissa Ward reports from New Delhi on the growing criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his failure to control a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in India.
> ...



Amazing!


----------



## Space Lynx (May 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> mRNA is only useful if you have the strategic supercomputers (and the research programs / computer programs that run on those computers) needed to compute the protein folds. There's a reason why only the USA is manufacturing these.
> 
> There's discussion about whether or not the US should release the patent to the mRNA vaccine. I'm not sure what to think of it. "Trust in big-pharma" is probably wrong. But there's something to be said about why something like this is incredibly valuable. If our patent system came up with the solution, then yes, it was the success of our patent system... and we shouldn't undermine it (so that the next disease can also be attacked with our patent system).
> 
> ...











						Biden team says it supports waiving patent protections on Covid-19 vaccines
					

Progressive Democrats have pushed President Joe Biden to endorse a broad waiver of all intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics.




					www.politico.com
				




_Biden team says it supports waiving patent protections on Covid-19 vaccines_

Let's hope Pfizer and the others are still willing to innovate after this...


----------



## R0H1T (May 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Watch: India's leader Narendra Modi holds rally as coronavirus tears across country - CNN Video
> 
> 
> CNN's Clarissa Ward reports from New Delhi on the growing criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his failure to control a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in India.
> ...


That's old news & video footage ~ no election rallies held for at least a fortnight by Modi & Kumbh also ended a while back. Why is CNN regurgitating the same old piece again?


----------



## Space Lynx (May 6, 2021)

R0H1T said:


> That's old news & video footage ~ no election rallies held for at least a fortnight by Modi & Kumbh also ended a while back. Why is CNN regurgitating the same old piece again?



no idea. but that article was posted today when I linked it anyway. its a video so can't tell for sure, but I know it was the front page today. so I have no idea.


----------



## claes (May 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Biden team says it supports waiving patent protections on Covid-19 vaccines
> 
> 
> Progressive Democrats have pushed President Joe Biden to endorse a broad waiver of all intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics.
> ...


It’s highly unlikely that they’ll let the patents ago, but realistically there’s not much innovation going on here. mRNA vaccines have been around for awhile, and only required a few tweaks to produce a working Covid vaccine (never mind that this work was subsidized by project warp speed and other initiatives).

I know I posted this before but for posterity’s sake, here’s a university that produced a vaccine back in May of last year based on public research and without proprietary methods — they just couldn’t secure investment for phase three trials:








						Finland Had a Patent-Free COVID-19 Vaccine Nine Months Ago — But Still Went With Big Pharma
					

A team of leading Finnish researchers had a patent-free COVID-19 vaccine ready last May, which could have allowed countries all over the world to inoculate their populations without paying top dollar. Yet rather than help the initiative, Finland's government sided with Big Pharma — showing how a...




					jacobinmag.com


----------



## Space Lynx (May 6, 2021)

claes said:


> It’s highly unlikely that they’ll let the patents ago, but realistically there’s not much innovation going on here. mRNA vaccines have been around for awhile, and only required a few tweaks to produce a working Covid vaccine (never mind that this work was subsidized by project warp speed and other initiatives).
> 
> I know I posted this before but for posterity’s sake, here’s a university that produced a vaccine back in May of last year based on public research and without proprietary methods — they just couldn’t secure investment for phase three trials:
> 
> ...



Pfizer is making crazy money right now, selling the vaccine to many countries. Take that away from them, or even remove the patent from that, means they have less incentive to push hard in the future for something else ground breaking. Why cure cancer with mRNA when you will have to sell it for free after only a minimal profit? I'd like to think people have good hearts too, but the world has chewed me up and spit me out to many times to fall for that old cliché again.


----------



## claes (May 6, 2021)

You missed the point... A public university “innovated” mRNA more efficiently than Pfizer did in only a few weeks using non-proprietary research... If a small, publicly funded university lab can produce a working vaccine sooner than a multi-billion dollar Pfizer/biontech can (using German tax payer money to do so), then how exactly did Pfizer innovate? I’d hardly call replicating what a small lab did in a few weeks in several months “groundbreaking.”

The patent waivers don’t actually prevent them from owning patents, it just forces them to share the patent with other manufacturers who can then manufacture x company’s drug for the duration of the waiver. They still own the IP and can exercise their right to it once the waiver expires. I know Moderna said they planned on doing as much back in October, I’d be surprised if the rest didn’t say the same (and aren’t simultaneously fighting the waivers lol).

Really — if that Finland vaccine had been brought to and completed stage three trials then proprietary Covid vaccines wouldn’t be profitable at all...


----------



## Space Lynx (May 6, 2021)

claes said:


> You missed the point... A public university “innovated” mRNA more efficiently than Pfizer did in only a few weeks using non-proprietary research... If a small, publicly funded university lab can produce a working vaccine sooner than a multi-billion dollar Pfizer/biontech can (using German tax payer money to do so), then how exactly did Pfizer innovate? I’d hardly call replicating what a small lab did in a few weeks in several months “groundbreaking.”
> 
> The patent waivers don’t actually prevent them from owning patents, it just forces them to share the patent with other manufacturers who can then manufacture x company’s drug for the duration of the waiver. They still own the IP and can exercise their right to it once the waiver expires. I know Moderna said they planned on doing as much back in October, I’d be surprised if the rest didn’t say the same (and aren’t simultaneously fighting the waivers lol).
> 
> Really — if that Finland vaccine had been brought to and completed stage three trials then proprietary Covid vaccines wouldn’t be profitable at all...



good point and I believe DARPA or some USA government heavily funded Moderna early on too... which is ultimately tax payer money, so yes you are correct. I concede.  Thank you for explaining it better.  

Hmm. Not sure where we go from here though, because the means is in the production capabilities though... so a small university as you say, does still need to prove itself in that regard, even with funding... creating a factory is no easy task, and Pfizer has done that many times. Small universities have done that probably 0 on the scales needed. That would be the only argument I have left.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 6, 2021)

Can the US even make a decision either way regarding the Pfizer vaccine? My understanding is that the patent rests with the developer of the vaccine which is BioNtech, Pfizer was brought to the party for support with clinical trials, logistics, and manufacturing, but not sure how it works in these circumstances.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Biden team says it supports waiving patent protections on Covid-19 vaccines
> 
> 
> Progressive Democrats have pushed President Joe Biden to endorse a broad waiver of all intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics.
> ...


Pfizer and other mRNA vaccines were built on university studies, not on their in-house technology. So: public, taxpayer money facilities.

They better not whine about it. Did you see the profit margin yet? Billions, and over 3x the cost of making one.



claes said:


> You missed the point... A public university “innovated” mRNA more efficiently than Pfizer did in only a few weeks using non-proprietary research... If a small, publicly funded university lab can produce a working vaccine sooner than a multi-billion dollar Pfizer/biontech can (using German tax payer money to do so), then how exactly did Pfizer innovate? I’d hardly call replicating what a small lab did in a few weeks in several months “groundbreaking.”
> 
> The patent waivers don’t actually prevent them from owning patents, it just forces them to share the patent with other manufacturers who can then manufacture x company’s drug for the duration of the waiver. They still own the IP and can exercise their right to it once the waiver expires. I know Moderna said they planned on doing as much back in October, I’d be surprised if the rest didn’t say the same (and aren’t simultaneously fighting the waivers lol).
> 
> Really — if that Finland vaccine had been brought to and completed stage three trials then proprietary Covid vaccines wouldn’t be profitable at all...



Ah. Thanks. I think we're reading news in a similar place of the world, seeing as we bring similar points pretty often


----------



## Space Lynx (May 6, 2021)

claes said:


> You missed the point... A public university “innovated” mRNA more efficiently than Pfizer did in only a few weeks using non-proprietary research... If a small, publicly funded university lab can produce a working vaccine sooner than a multi-billion dollar Pfizer/biontech can (using German tax payer money to do so), then how exactly did Pfizer innovate? I’d hardly call replicating what a small lab did in a few weeks in several months “groundbreaking.”
> 
> The patent waivers don’t actually prevent them from owning patents, it just forces them to share the patent with other manufacturers who can then manufacture x company’s drug for the duration of the waiver. They still own the IP and can exercise their right to it once the waiver expires. I know Moderna said they planned on doing as much back in October, I’d be surprised if the rest didn’t say the same (and aren’t simultaneously fighting the waivers lol).
> 
> Really — if that Finland vaccine had been brought to and completed stage three trials then proprietary Covid vaccines wouldn’t be profitable at all...











						US shift on vaccines embarrasses Europe before India summit
					

Continent divided over Biden’s proposal for patent waiver but Berlin sounds skeptical.




					www.politico.eu
				




looks like Germany agrees with the argument I just made, it's not about the patent its about the safety and complexity of the manufacturing process staying in experienced hands.  basically was my last argument a few posts up. maybe Germany politicians read this thread LMAO


----------



## R-T-B (May 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> looks like Germany agrees with the argument I just made, it's not about the patent its about the safety and complexity of the manufacturing process staying in experienced hands


I thought determining if the end product was safe was the FDA's purpose for existing?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 6, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I thought determining if the end product was safe was the FDA's purpose for existing?



To a fault. IIRC: FDA doesn't do comparative studies (is X better than Y?). FDA only does efficacy studies (is X better than placebo?).

It turns out that those are very different: you can't just combine two efficacy studies (is X better than placebo) vs (is Y better than placebo), because the two studies may have subtly different methodologies and/or pools of people they studied. I mean... you *can* do so and try to form an argument (and many people make arguments of that nature). But arguments of this form are fundamentally invalid.

But yes, FDA's bread-and-butter regulation / studies are "X better than placebo??" questions.


----------



## R-T-B (May 6, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> To a fault. IIRC: FDA doesn't do comparative studies (is X better than Y?). FDA only does efficacy studies (is X better than placebo?).
> 
> It turns out that those are very different: you can't just combine two efficacy studies (is X better than placebo) vs (is Y better than placebo), because the two studies may have subtly different methodologies and/or pools of people they studied. I mean... you *can* do so and try to form an argument (and many people make arguments of that nature). But arguments of this form are fundamentally invalid.
> 
> But yes, FDA's bread-and-butter regulation / studies are "X better than placebo??" questions.


I'm not so concerned about efficacy as that'll sure be out in data form eventually regardless, even if not at a specific generic product launch.

I was speaking specifically to product safety, ie "this will not kill you or cause you to be in severe pain"


----------



## Space Lynx (May 7, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I thought determining if the end product was safe was the FDA's purpose for existing?



I don't think you understand at all the issue here, this has nothing to do with United States FDA...

USA wants to release patent so OTHER countries can make their own Pfizer vaccine.  BioNTech did all the research on this mRNA tech, it is true, I don't think they care about the patent, they are rich enough now, but they are worried about say some poor country having access to how to make the Pfizer vaccine (once patent becomes open source for it), and they will mess up some very small detail during the manufacturing process that might cause severe symptoms or death in those who get that vaccine - because this level of manufacturing is extremely advanced, and Pfizer is probably one of the few companies with enough experience and engineers to do it. The more accidents you have from some poor countries poor attempt at the recreation of the Pfizer vaccine, the less people will trust vaccines in those countries.

It would be much much cheaper to just keep making deals with Pfizer and Moderna to scale up their operations - and sell cheaply to other countries, but Pfizer/Moderna (operating within certain regions to better service multiple regions of the world) is the best approach imo. WHO already has funds to buy these vaccines from Pfizer/Moderna to send to poorer countries, that funding just needs expanded now that we see what's happening in the Seychelle's.  Prevention of death is great and all, but you want the vaccine that will re-open the world economy so it doesn't all collapse. (the Seychelle's economy is currently closed even though a lot are vaccinated, just not with the mRNA one).


----------



## R-T-B (May 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I don't think you understand at all the issue here, this has nothing to do with United States FDA...


I was indeed being geocentric to my region, apologies.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 7, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I was indeed being geocentric to my region, apologies.



No need to apologize, just think you had some brain fog in relation to the issue at hand lol

it's ok covid recovery Frog, I got yo back... buy you flies to eat...


----------



## R-T-B (May 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> No need to apologize, just think you had some brain fog in relation to the issue at hand lol


I'll blame covid.


----------



## claes (May 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> US shift on vaccines embarrasses Europe before India summit
> 
> 
> Continent divided over Biden’s proposal for patent waiver but Berlin sounds skeptical.
> ...


Most of the EU are saying they are for patent waivers, except Germany, according to the article, but are annoyed that the US changed their position on COVAX, which makes a lot of sense since the US still hasn’t agreed to participate in COVAX and is stockpiling 2x as many doses as we could possibly need. In this way, the US suddenly being pro patent waivers is disingenuous, since patent waivers would still mean that the US hasn’t committed to the global vaccination effort while COVAX partners would foot the bill with whatever alleged benefit patent waivers bring in reducing costs.

Most vaccines aren’t actually produced in the country of origin, or even by the developer, but are actually outsourced to companies in places like India, who is producing the majority of Covid 19 vaccines for the world (ironically, their outbreak is supposedly what changed the US’s mind, and they stopped exporting vaccines two months ago).

If I understand correctly (please correct me if I’m wrong), from there they’re sent to places like the US, where a regulatory body, like the FDA, determines if they’re safe.

If you read further down in the article, those defending patent rights are actually more concerned about patents surrounding things like manufacturing and storage techniques, which are beyond the scope of the patents for the vaccine themselves.


lynx29 said:


> USA wants to release patent so OTHER countries can make their own Pfizer vaccine.  BioNTech did all the research on this mRNA tech, it is true, I don't think they care about the patent, they are rich enough now, but they are worried about say some poor country having access to how to make the Pfizer vaccine (once patent becomes open source for it), and they will mess up some very small detail during the manufacturing process that might cause severe symptoms or death in those who get that vaccine - because this level of manufacturing is extremely advanced, and Pfizer is probably one of the few companies with enough experience and engineers to do it. The more accidents you have from some poor countries poor attempt at the recreation of the Pfizer vaccine, the less people will trust vaccines in those countries.


I would not put this much faith in big pharma  biontech and Pfizer are beholden to their shareholders, and while most manufacturers are selling vaccines at low prices now, they have every intention of raising prices in the coming months (Pfizer and their CEO have been very candid about this, as have others, with increases expected in September). Like I mentioned, Moderna claimed they’d waive patents back in October, yet here we are in May and there’s still no generic Moderna vaccine...

They could give a shit about these poorer countries, whom they often use as guinea pigs for new pharmaceuticals... As I mentioned above, vaccine (really all pharmaceutical) production is often outsourced to places like India, Malaysia, the Philippines... These countries are already more than capable of producing the vaccine themselves.

What patent waivers do is allow other manufacturers in poorer countries to produce and distribute vaccines royalty free/at cost, but that doesn’t really matter since the world’s vaccine producers are already at capacity. What’s needed is more buyers, more resources, and more facilities. The perils of just-in-time/LEAN production — the same reasons our hospitals were overwhelmed!

It’s a clusterfuck to say the least









						Biden agreed to waive vaccine patents. But will that help get doses out faster?
					

Vaccinating the world will be tough. Here’s what intellectual property waivers can and can’t do.




					www.vox.com


----------



## Space Lynx (May 7, 2021)

claes said:


> Most of the EU are saying they are for patent waivers, except Germany, according to the article, but are annoyed that the US changed their position on COVAX, which makes a lot of sense since the US still hasn’t agreed to participate in COVAX and is stockpiling 2x as many doses as we could possibly need. In this way, the US suddenly being pro patent waivers is disingenuous, since patent waivers would still mean that the US hasn’t committed to the global vaccination effort while COVAX partners would foot the bill with whatever alleged benefit patent waivers bring in reducing costs.
> 
> Most vaccines aren’t actually produced in the country of origin, or even by the developer, but are actually outsourced to companies in places like India, who is producing the majority of Covid 19 vaccines for the world (ironically, their outbreak is supposedly what changed the US’s mind, and they stopped exporting vaccines two months ago).
> 
> ...



mRNA vaccines are only made in mass on United States soil to my knowledge. not India.


----------



## claes (May 7, 2021)

My bad; Pfizer does not produce in India (they do in Europe and China, though), the rest though:









						India is the home of the world's biggest producer of Covid vaccines. But it's facing a major internal shortage
					

India's devastating experience of a second wave of coronavirus cases is ongoing but questions are now focusing on how the country got to this tragic point.




					www.cnbc.com
				












						The World's Largest Vaccine Maker Took A Multimillion Dollar Pandemic Gamble
					

NPR tours the factory of the world's largest vaccine maker: Serum Institute of India. It's manufacturing nearly 100 million doses a month of the Oxford-AstraZeneca formula and exporting them globally.




					www.npr.org
				




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer–BioNTech_COVID-19_vaccine#Manufacturing





__





						Serum Institute of India - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Edit: just so we’re on the same page, I have no hostility to you whatsoever and am certainly not an expert (or even educated) in these matters. We’re all just learning here (well except for the actual doctor). Sorry if my responses felt flippant or argumentative


----------



## the54thvoid (May 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> mRNA vaccines are only made in mass on United States soil to my knowledge. not India.



The Pfizer/Biontech is made by both companies and not solely in the US.









						Pfizer and BioNTech ramp up COVID-19 vaccine production to 2.5 billion doses
					

Pfizer and BioNTech expect to expand COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing capacity to up to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021, thanks to the optimization of production processes and the recent initiation of production in Marburg, Germany.




					www.biopharma-reporter.com


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 7, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> The Pfizer/Biontech is made by both companies and not solely in the US.



And the reagents that make up the vaccine are sourced from many, many, many different companies across the world. The supply-chain of the vaccine is probably a bigger deal with regards to manufacturing, rather than patents / the country where the final product is made.


----------



## Devon68 (May 8, 2021)

I took Sinopharm. Both vaccines went fine with no unwanted side effects. There were some concerns because I use some pills for therapeutic purposes which reduce the strength of my immune system, but it is all good.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> US shift on vaccines embarrasses Europe before India summit
> 
> 
> Continent divided over Biden’s proposal for patent waiver but Berlin sounds skeptical.
> ...



Its a bit more nuanced than that, is what I've learned now - the EU is saying that we are exporting vaccines while the US and UK are not. And this is a fact. About half the production is export over here - and we're _far _from done vaccinating ourselves.

So its a double argument, because naturally, there is also a strong argument to be made for Germany to protect its companies, value, and secrets. I'm not a believer when they say the patent is nothing without the chain around it, because if you know what you need you can set it up.

But there are many more sides to this coin than initially meets the eye. There is also China. Do we really want to give technology away like this? Or do we want to sell it? I mean, its not like China is or has been a savior in this whole episode. Its very strange to see the same Biden that is going to keep a hardline stance on China say he wants to share someone else's secrets with them.

Net result: this was a US publicity stunt that worked out admirably. Read between the lines


----------



## R-T-B (May 9, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Do we really want to give technology away like this? Or do we want to sell it?


You want effective vaccine in as many arms as possible.  Money shouldn't even enter the equation.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 10, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Its a bit more nuanced than that, is what I've learned now - the EU is saying that we are exporting vaccines while the US and UK are not. And this is a fact. About half the production is export over here - and we're _far _from done vaccinating ourselves.
> 
> So its a double argument, because naturally, there is also a strong argument to be made for Germany to protect its companies, value, and secrets. I'm not a believer when they say the patent is nothing without the chain around it, because if you know what you need you can set it up.
> 
> But there are many more sides to this coin than initially meets the eye. There is also China. Do we really want to give technology away like this? Or do we want to sell it? I mean, its not like China is or has been a savior in this whole episode.



not sure why other countries would expect UK/US to ship them vaccines until their own countries are taken care of... UK you still have to be 42 yrs old to get vaccine. not enough for everyone yet there.

once enough for everyone I expect them to start shipping to other countries...



R-T-B said:


> You want effective vaccine in as many arms as possible.  Money shouldn't even enter the equation.



they are selling it dirt cheap to other countries, and WHO is paying those dirt cheap prices for those countries that can't afford it.  2.2 billion doses from pfizer alove this year, and double next year... i mean really it would take longer to build more facilities than to just scale up pfizer and moderna where they currently sit imo.


----------



## claes (May 10, 2021)

How do you scale up facilities that are already at capacity?


----------



## Space Lynx (May 10, 2021)

claes said:


> How do you scale up facilities that are already at capacity?



ask them, because they have done so multiple times already.  (possibly building addons to current building next door, I have no idea though).  pfizer and moderna both said multiple times they were able to scale production more than expected.


----------



## claes (May 10, 2021)

Why are they still at capacity? How do they increase capacity without building more facilities? I mean good job Pfizer for falling short of production forecasted last year and increasing production by ~5% in the past two months by building more facilities, but, to answer my own question, you’re going to need to build more facilities lol

all respect I think you need to test your contentions with google before making conjecture

call me crazy, but if you sign on to ctap and use global facilities rather than the few that you own, you’re going to produce more vaccine thanks to the additional production capacity, no?


----------



## Vayra86 (May 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> You want effective vaccine in as many arms as possible.  Money shouldn't even enter the equation.


And yet every vaccine deal that was made, involved money. Copious amounts of it.


----------



## R-T-B (May 10, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> And yet every vaccine deal that was made, involved money. Copious amounts of it.


...that's the problem.  Good.  You can see it.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 10, 2021)

Just a point, AZ is sold at cost, so I have heard.


----------



## R-T-B (May 10, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Just a point, AZ is sold at cost, so I have heard.


It's also nearly all made from public research by acadamia, not commercial r&d.  So it should be.


----------



## HTC (May 10, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 22313 active cases --- *1266 less --- 181 less per day*
- 800277 recovered --- 3556 more --- 508 more per day
- 16992 fatalities --- 15 more --- 2 more per day
- 839582 confirmed infected --- 2305 more --- 329 more per day

- 10522254 tests taken --- 310209 more --- 34468 more per day but was last updated May 8th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 3884052 vaccinated --- 560370 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 2814783 1st doses + 1069269 2nd doses
- 268 hospitalized --- *43 less --- 6 less per day*
- 74 in ICU --- *13 less --- 2 less per day*

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Daily fatalities rose slightly (+3 VS previous week in total) and the week average has dropped below 10 for the 6th consecutive week. New cases dropped more noticeably and the R number dropped from 0.98 to 0.92 on average. Roughly 28% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 10.6% have received both doses.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 14, 2021)

Delayed second Pfizer COVID-19 shot produces more antibodies -study
					

Pfizer's (PFE.N) COVID-19 vaccine generates antibody responses three-and-a-half times larger in older people when a second dose is delayed to 12 weeks after the first, a British study said.




					www.reuters.com
				




looks like delaying the second shot worked out better than anyone thought.  neat.

now we need everyone to get mRNA vaccines so another Seychelle's doesn't happen.


----------



## HTC (May 17, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 22275 active cases --- *38 less --- 5 less per day*
- 802900 recovered --- 2623 more --- 375 more per day
- 17007 fatalities --- 15 more --- 2 more per day
- 842182 confirmed infected --- 2600 more --- 371 more per day

- 11133009 tests taken --- 310209 more --- 610751 more per day but was last updated May 15th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 4382497 vaccinated --- 498445 more --- last updated yesterday but that corresponds to 3062741 1st doses + 1319755 2nd doses
- 245 hospitalized --- *23 less --- 3 less per day*
- 76 in ICU --- 2 more --- less than 1 per day

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities was the exact same as last week and we also had another day with zero fatalities: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 7th consecutive week. New cases increased a bit and the R number increased from from 0.92 to 0.95 on average. Roughly 30% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 13% have received both doses.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 17, 2021)

And it's started in Taiwan. Sure, almost a year and a half late, but this is not looking good...









						Taiwan reports 333 local COVID cases | Taiwan News | 2021-05-17 19:03:00
					

333 local cases mark single-day high for Taiwan since start of pandemic | 2021-05-17 19:03:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## HTC (May 17, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> And it's started in Taiwan. Sure, almost a year and a half late, but this is not looking good...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is a critical moment, IMO: mess up the response to this and the numbers will "explode".

Good luck, Taiwan.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 17, 2021)

HTC said:


> This is a critical moment, IMO: mess up the response to this and the numbers will "explode".
> 
> Good luck, Taiwan.


Well, it started with a local airline and a sloppy quarantine hotel...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 17, 2021)

It looks like Taiwan had so few cases of COVID19, that no one wanted to get a vaccine. It sorta makes sense: they're an island nation, it should have been relatively easy to keep COVID19 contained.

But now that mistakes have been made, its important to move into vaccinations as quickly as possible. Community transmission means that the COVID19 spread can no longer be tracked adequately by contact tracing. So the exponential curve starts now for that nation...


----------



## Space Lynx (May 17, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Well, it started with a local airline and a sloppy quarantine hotel...



So are they locking down there? Or is everyone just doing their thing not worrying about it still? If the latter, I do hope they have some mRNA vaccines on order.

mRNA is the only way out of this mess imo, it's not about death rates anymore its about economies shutting down, and mRNA is the only one that can stop the latter.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> So are they locking down there? Or is everyone just doing their thing not worrying about it still? If the latter, I do hope they have some mRNA vaccines on order.
> 
> mRNA is the only way out of this mess imo, it's not about death rates anymore its about economies shutting down, and mRNA is the only one that can stop the latter.


Not yet, but people are doing it on their own, so to say.
So far not too bad outside greater Taipei.








						Photo of the Day: Taipei becomes ghost town as COVID cases spike | Taiwan News | 2021-05-17 13:41:00
					

Xinyi, Ximending, Tamsui, night markets, MRT become desolate and empty | 2021-05-17 13:41:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				












						Google Maps users reveal tracks of confirmed cases in Taiwan | Taiwan News | 2021-05-16 16:19:00
					

Netizens use information issued by CECC to create maps of potential COVID hot spots | 2021-05-16 16:19:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




No vaccine really, 600k does of Astra Zeneca from WHO for 23 million people...
China is blocking anything else.
Local vaccines expected in July, non mRNA types.








						Taiwan-made COVID vaccines expected to roll out in July | Taiwan News | 2021-05-14 12:27:00
					

President Tsai Ing-wen says phase II trials of domestic coronavirus vaccines nearing completion | 2021-05-14 12:27:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## 64K (May 17, 2021)

New cases in my county with a population of 368,000 have stayed well under 50 per day for a while. It was 13 new cases yesterday. I know 368,000 is a small sample of the USA but it's relevant to me because it's where I live and I've cut way down on travel.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 17, 2021)

Well, here is an update for the UK on the day that phase 3 easing has begun, the 4th and final phase is currently scheduled for 21st June and at that point there will be no restrictions in force, pretty much everything is open indoors and outdoors from today with the odd exceptions if you live in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, thousands of people took off today for Portugal for a holiday as it's one of very few destinations on our "Green" list which basically means no quarantine when you return.

ATM there could be a slight risk to that 21st June deadline as we have seen more cases of the Indian variant but I guess we will know if that one has any real impact over the coming weeks ...............


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 17, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Well, here is an update for the UK on the day that phase 3 easing has begun, the 4th and final phase is currently scheduled for 21st June and at that point there will be no restrictions in force, pretty much everything is open indoors and outdoors from today with the odd exceptions if you live in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, thousands of people took off today for Portugal for a holiday as it's one of very few destinations on our "Green" list which basically means no quarantine when you return.
> 
> ATM there could be a slight risk to that 21st June deadline as we have seen more cases of the Indian variant but I guess we will know if that one has any real impact over the coming weeks ...............
> 
> View attachment 200696


Ah yes, entitled people going on holiday, because nothing bad can happen now...

I will admit I'm itching to go somewhere too, but I will make damn well sure I've been dosed up on the vaccine first and I'm not going to a party place to get wasted.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 17, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Ah yes, entitled people going on holiday, because nothing bad can happen now...
> 
> I will admit I'm itching to go somewhere too, but I will make damn well sure I've been dosed up on the vaccine first and I'm not going to a party place to get wasted.



I'm hoping to go to UK in July still. I will be at peak immunity with Pfizer two shot vaccine, which protects against all the strains, and I will be double masking as soon as I enter the airport (as well as wearing my gaming glasses (which cover the side of the eyes too like goggles) I'm convinced covid is an aerosol, and if its just floating there and you walk into a cloud of it and blink you can get it from eyes, I can't prove this, but I am being extra careful (if I look goofy so what who cares, no one ever talks to each other at an airport anyway)... then when in England I will show my negative PCR test that I took in USA within 72 hours, and then I will be allowed to proceed to a small village my relatives live at, where I intend to get naked in their garden, bag all my clothes, spray my luggage and leave it outside, shower, put on fresh clothes, gargle with mouthwash... and continue to wear gloves and mask for ten days when not outside my room. I don't need anyone to check up on me, I intend to stay in my room for ten days, cause last thing I want is to get anyone sick. 

I intend to stay for two months, so ten days is worthy sacrifice. My job is remote too in the Fall, so I may end up staying for 3 months then flying home. We will see, max travel visa is 90 days. 

IMO though the other vaccines need to go. Pfizer has saved the day. Moderna still hasn't released their numbers on some variants which worries me as its been a long time since Pfizer did... Pfizer is king... TSMC should order 46 million shots of Pfizer in honor of their insane profits LOL jk that's a shame China is blocking Pfizer, I wonder what their reasoning is?


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm hoping to go to UK in July still. I will be at peak immunity with Pfizer two shot vaccine, which protects against all the strains, and I will be double masking as soon as I enter the airport (as well as wearing my gaming glasses (which cover the side of the eyes too like goggles) I'm convinced covid is an aerosol, and if its just floating there and you walk into a cloud of it and blink you can get it from eyes, I can't prove this, but I am being extra careful (if I look goofy so what who cares, no one ever talks to each other at an airport anyway)... then when in England I will show my negative PCR test that I took in USA within 72 hours, and then I will be allowed to proceed to a small village my relatives live at, where I intend to get naked in their garden, bag all my clothes, spray my luggage and leave it outside, shower, put on fresh clothes, gargle with mouthwash... and continue to wear gloves and mask for ten days when not outside my room. I don't need anyone to check up on me, I intend to stay in my room for ten days, cause last thing I want is to get anyone sick.
> 
> I intend to stay for two months, so ten days is worthy sacrifice. My job is remote too in the Fall, so I may end up staying for 3 months then flying home. We will see, max travel visa is 90 days.
> 
> IMO though the other vaccines need to go. Pfizer has saved the day. Moderna still hasn't released their numbers on some variants which worries me as its been a long time since Pfizer did... Pfizer is king... TSMC should order 46 million shots of Pfizer in honor of their insane profits LOL jk that's a shame China is blocking Pfizer, I wonder what their reasoning is?


Double masking isn't going to do you much good, it'll just make it hard to breathe, get a better fitting mask instead. Keep in mind that airplanes have HEPA air filters that should take of most of the nasties.

I flew back to Taiwan from Sweden in July last year and it wasn't a big deal.

The link below is to the Lancet. No idea why it looks like this.








						Ten scientific reasons in support of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2
					

Heneghan and colleagues' systematic review, funded by WHO, published in March, 2021, as a preprint, states: “The lack of recoverable viral culture samples of SARS-CoV-2 prevents firm conclusions to be drawn about airborne transmission”.1 This conclusion, and the wide circulation of the review's...



					www.thelancet.com
				




You might not want to get naked in front of your relatives though, it's not a thing you do in the UK...

China is blocking Taiwan from buying Pfizer/BioNTEch, as the distributor is based in China.








						Taiwan suggests China to blame after deal for 5m Covid vaccine doses is put on hold
					

Plan to buy the BioNTech shot has been delayed amid intervention by ‘outside forces’, says health minister




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Space Lynx (May 17, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Double masking isn't going to do you much good, it'll just make it hard to breathe, get a better fitting mask instead. Keep in mind that airplanes have HEPA air filters that should take of most of the nasties.
> 
> I flew back to Taiwan from Sweden in July last year and it wasn't a big deal.
> 
> ...



i meant like they would have a towel ready for me, etc so i could rush straight to shower.. lol not expose myself!!! im not crazy mate lol

and wow China is a major... well I can't use that language here.  haha

I hope my pfizer vaccines were not distributed by China, why would I trust such a mean personality? pretty sure all pfizer here made in USA though, so it all good.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 17, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Double masking isn't going to do you much good, it'll just make it hard to breathe, get a better fitting mask instead. Keep in mind that airplanes have HEPA air filters that should take of most of the nasties.



Well, a lot of masks in the USA are cheaper, poorly fitting masks. A properly fitted mask will be easier to breath and more reliable than two masks. But... two masks can fix the leakage problem that our common masks have.

I think I agree with you that finding a good fitting, higher quality mask, would be far more comfortable than double masking. But I wouldn't hate on the double-masking recommendation. I know some people are worried about the "infection through eyes" thing, but I personally just wear my glasses on top of my mask (I need them to drive anyway).

That being said: this mRNA vaccination thing (of which I'm fully vaccinated now) is way more effective than anyone expected. I probably will mask up in airports, but... I'm seeing plummeting numbers of COVID19 around the USA. Its clear that the high-rate of vaccination is helping out. So I'm feeling pretty optimistic given the numbers. I dunno what the UK's numbers are, but I assume they also have a high-rate of vaccinations and therefore low COVID19 numbers.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> pretty sure all pfizer here made in USA though, so it all good.



Pfizer is manufactured in USA and Germany IIRC. Pfizer being in the USA, and Biontech in Germany (same vaccine, different manufacturers, some kind of weird corporate relationship going on that I don't understand).

EDIT: I think Pfizer also has some German locations too. So even that one company isn't strictly US-only.


----------



## HTC (May 17, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Pfizer is manufactured in USA and Germany IIRC. Pfizer being in the USA, and Biontech in Germany (same vaccine, different manufacturers, *some kind of weird corporate relationship going on that **I don't understand*).



Same here.

Regardless, for ANY country to block VACCINES to another country in the middle of a PANDEMIC ... that's criminal, IMO


----------



## Tatty_One (May 17, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Ah yes, entitled people going on holiday, because nothing bad can happen now...
> 
> I will admit I'm itching to go somewhere too, but I will make damn well sure I've been dosed up on the vaccine first and I'm not going to a party place to get wasted.


Not sure about "entitled", all the ones interviewed on a British Airways flight set to leave this morning were either Healthcare workers (who have all been vaccinated) or Supermarket workers, two thirds of the population have been vaccinated now but everyone still has to have had a negative PCR test within 72 hours of flying, plus of course the infection rates in Portugal are very low hence why they are one of the few countries (12) that are on our green list.

@dragontamer5788 Biontech developed the vaccine, Pfizer offered manufacturing, logistics & supply.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 17, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Well, a lot of masks in the USA are cheaper, poorly fitting masks. A properly fitted mask will be easier to breath and more reliable than two masks. But... two masks can fix the leakage problem that our common masks have.
> 
> I think I agree with you that finding a good fitting, higher quality mask, would be far more comfortable than double masking. But I wouldn't hate on the double-masking recommendation. I know some people are worried about the "infection through eyes" thing, but I personally just wear my glasses on top of my mask (I need them to drive anyway).
> 
> That being said: this mRNA vaccination thing (of which I'm fully vaccinated now) is way more effective than anyone expected. I probably will mask up in airports, but... I'm seeing plummeting numbers of COVID19 around the USA. Its clear that the high-rate of vaccination is helping out. So I'm feeling pretty optimistic given the numbers. I dunno what the UK's numbers are, but I assume they also have a high-rate of vaccinations and therefore low COVID19 numbers.



USA still only has 40% vaccinated population in total, they always say like 200-300 million doses which sounds like a lot until you divide by two cause only like tiny percentage have jnj single...

and every county/clinic in USA basically has empty sites... no one else is getting the shot. i think we are looking at a max of 45%* total* population vaccinated by end of August. 



Tatty_One said:


> Not sure about "entitled", all the ones interviewed on a British Airways flight set to leave this morning were either Healthcare workers (who have all been vaccinated) or Supermarket workers, two thirds of the population have been vaccinated now but everyone still has to have had a negative PCR test within 72 hours of flying, plus of course the infection rates in Portugal are very low hence why they are one of the few countries (12) that are on our green list.
> 
> @dragontamer5788 Biontech developed the vaccine, Pfizer offered manufacturing, logistics & supply.











						Boris deploys Army to Bolton to combat Indian Covid variant
					

THE ARMY will be deployed to Bolton and Blackburn as cases of the Indian coronavirus variant surge in the area, the Prime Minister has announced.




					www.express.co.uk
				




the AZ vaccine isn't doing well against the Indian variant, boris literally just sent the army in like 4 days ago... to force testing i presume? it's not about deaths anymore, its about not testing positive at x ratios so that economies can stay open. and the indian variant may shut down England again, just have to wait and see. need more Pfizer less AZ.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 17, 2021)

On the contrary, AZ is effective against the Indian variant and was the 1st to release their test results, the Army deploys anywhere there is surge testing to support the NHS efforts, probably because most of the NHS is vaccinating people 

Edit:  Almost all of the new infections are in the 18 - 25 age range, probably because they have not been vaccinated yet.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 17, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> On the contrary, AZ is effective against the Indian variant and was the 1st to release their test results, the Army deploys anywhere there is surge testing to support the NHS efforts, probably because most of the NHS is vaccinating people



I did not realize this. Hmm, excellent. Well this is good news for me. I hope I can come in July without too many issues, I miss my friends and relatives so much... agh...  it's funny how little you actually care about any one nation state, at end of day we all just want be with friends who care for us. Like sure I love to see sites and museums and such, and nature, etc. but at end of day main reason I'm going is I miss my friends. (i have no friends where I currently live in USA)... so yeah like Cheers theme song... we all want to be where someone knows our name


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 17, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> That being said: this mRNA vaccination thing (of which I'm fully vaccinated now) is way more effective than anyone expected. I probably will mask up in airports, but... I'm seeing plummeting numbers of COVID19 around the USA. Its clear that the high-rate of vaccination is helping out. So I'm feeling pretty optimistic given the numbers. I dunno what the UK's numbers are, but I assume they also have a high-rate of vaccinations and therefore low COVID19 numbers.


You have this lady's stubbornness to thank for your vaccine, even though she got near zero credit for it and the university that didn't believe in her sold off her patents.








						Katalin Karikó - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 17, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Not sure about "entitled", all the ones interviewed on a British Airways flight set to leave this morning were either Healthcare workers (who have all been vaccinated) or Supermarket workers, two thirds of the population have been vaccinated now but everyone still has to have had a negative PCR test within 72 hours of flying, plus of course the infection rates in Portugal are very low hence why they are one of the few countries (12) that are on our green list.


Last year it was a lot of entitled people that helped spread the virus, maybe it's different this time around, I sure hope so.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 17, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> You have this lady's stubbornness to thank for your vaccine, even though she got near zero credit for it and the university that didn't believe in her sold off her patents.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



After reading that BIO it's surprising she doesn't have a Nobel, I feel like she should have a Nobel in medicine, mRNA literally just saved the world. (I have heard of her before btw in a news article here in America a few months ago), but you are correct, I don't see her name often enough!


----------



## Vayra86 (May 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm hoping to go to UK in July still. I will be at peak immunity with Pfizer two shot vaccine, which protects against all the strains, and I will be double masking as soon as I enter the airport (as well as wearing my gaming glasses (which cover the side of the eyes too like goggles) I'm convinced covid is an aerosol, and if its just floating there and you walk into a cloud of it and blink you can get it from eyes, I can't prove this, but I am being extra careful (if I look goofy so what who cares, no one ever talks to each other at an airport anyway)... then when in England I will show my negative PCR test that I took in USA within 72 hours, and then I will be allowed to proceed to a small village my relatives live at, where I intend to get naked in their garden, bag all my clothes, spray my luggage and leave it outside, shower, put on fresh clothes, gargle with mouthwash... and continue to wear gloves and mask for ten days when not outside my room. I don't need anyone to check up on me, I intend to stay in my room for ten days, cause last thing I want is to get anyone sick.
> 
> I intend to stay for two months, so ten days is worthy sacrifice. My job is remote too in the Fall, so I may end up staying for 3 months then flying home. We will see, max travel visa is 90 days.
> 
> IMO though the other vaccines need to go. Pfizer has saved the day. Moderna still hasn't released their numbers on some variants which worries me as its been a long time since Pfizer did... Pfizer is king... TSMC should order 46 million shots of Pfizer in honor of their insane profits LOL jk that's a shame China is blocking Pfizer, I wonder what their reasoning is?



Man, that thing has really gotten to your head then. I'd advise you to let go ASAP, because what you typed here is far from healthy behaviour, nor does it make sense.

Statistic != individual guidance. Its one of those problems we have now with information overload and too much screen time. We start thinking the numbers are a reality when in fact we have no real grasp on the scale or situations in which statistics are gathered. They're numbers too big for our mind to really understand and base a natural, logical conclusion on, let alone healthy behaviour.

Example: there is still no real-world measurement on the actual effect of wearing masks, only clinical studies that hardly approach real life situations - if ever- , but we do know the pandemic has been getting worse prior and after we started wearing them. Did it make anyone safer? Doubtful. Did we _feel_ safer? Obviously.

Another example: aerosol transmission; again, clinical studies have defined your reality, apparently, because we also know that this risk is only 'tangible' in a very specific, rather extreme situation. No, there are no particles flying halfway around airports. The range at which the concentration could possibly be high enough for transmission is well shorter than the specific 1,5M you're supposed to socially distance yourself, and it needs to be specifically directed at you. So if someone spat you in the face, sure, risky. If not? You can safely forget about it.



dragontamer5788 said:


> That being said: this mRNA vaccination thing (of which I'm fully vaccinated now) is way more effective than anyone expected. I probably will mask up in airports, but... I'm seeing plummeting numbers of COVID19 around the USA. Its clear that the high-rate of vaccination is helping out. So I'm feeling pretty optimistic given the numbers. I dunno what the UK's numbers are, but I assume they also have a high-rate of vaccinations and therefore low COVID19 numbers.


Now there's a tangible effect on this pandemic. Vaccination. The only real way out. Everything else is bullshit.



TheLostSwede said:


> Last year it was a lot of entitled people that helped spread the virus, maybe it's different this time around, I sure hope so.


Also of questionable relevance. Vaccinate  Pointing the finger elsewhere is not helping anyone on a grand scale of things. Its important to set that straight in our heads, seriously. This is a virus. You can't see it. It can mutate. New strains can avoid testing and even vaccination we have today. This could go on for years and might well be an ongoing battle, where we constantly have smaller risk groups every year until we're down to a similar situation as the flu.

If we whine to one another, whine about how fast you can get a vaccine. Everything else, I'll say it again: waste of time.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 18, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Man, that thing has really gotten to your head then. I'd advise you to let go ASAP, because what you typed here is far from healthy behaviour, nor does it make sense.
> 
> Statistic != individual guidance. Its one of those problems we have now with information overload and too much screen time. We start thinking the numbers are a reality when in fact we have no real grasp on the scale or situations in which statistics are gathered. They're numbers too big for our mind to really understand and base a natural, logical conclusion on, let alone healthy behaviour.
> 
> ...



what are you talking about g, if you are 100% inoculated from pfizer and my relatives are also 100% inoculated from pfizer in England, and I double mask in airport/airplane/buses.  it's fine to go to England now.  it's time to move on with life. if you don't want to get the pfizer vaccine that's your problem, but Pfizer has saved the day. I'm simply being extra cautious out of respect. more than I can say for most people who will still be traveling regardless of this convo. lol









						UK defends late clampdown on travel from India
					

The Indian variant is now the dominant strain of COVID in certain parts of the UK.




					www.politico.eu
				




I called it. lol  see? India was literally on fire with new covid variant, and it took Britain two weeks to stop them coming in... and yet your calling my behavior and logic incorrect? seriously?


----------



## Vayra86 (May 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> what are you talking about g, if you are 100% inoculated from pfizer and my relatives are also 100% inoculated from pfizer in England, and I double mask in airport/airplane/buses.  it's fine to go to England now.  it's time to move on with life. if you don't want to get the pfizer vaccine that's your problem, but Pfizer has saved the day. I'm simply being extra cautious out of respect. more than I can say for most people who will still be traveling regardless of this convo. lol
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Huh? Did you even read my post or where is the disconnect here?


----------



## Tatty_One (May 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> what are you talking about g, if you are 100% inoculated from pfizer and my relatives are also 100% inoculated from pfizer in England, and I double mask in airport/airplane/buses.  it's fine to go to England now.  it's time to move on with life. if you don't want to get the pfizer vaccine that's your problem, but Pfizer has saved the day. I'm simply being extra cautious out of respect. more than I can say for most people who will still be traveling regardless of this convo. lol
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You do know you have the Indian variant in the US right?  You most likely have US Citizens who have family in India just like the UK does, you too are therefore also likely to have let your citizens back into your country, the only way it can be stopped is to have full border closure for everyone, no one allowed out, no one allowed in (and in some circumstances that is illegal), maybe we should all check our international flight arrivals throughout this pandemic, some of us may be very surprised.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 18, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Huh? Did you even read my post or where is the disconnect here?



you said I should let go of my plan ASAP?  I assume you meant to go to England?


----------



## Space Lynx (May 18, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> You do know you have the Indian variant in the US right?  You most likely have US Citizens who have family in India just like the UK does, you too are therefore also likely to have let your citizens back into your country, the only way it can be stopped is to have full border closure for everyone, no one allowed out, no one allowed in (and in some circumstances that is illegal), maybe we should all check our international flight arrivals throughout this pandemic, some of us may be very surprised.



Australia and NZ did that, illegal or not, and it worked for them.  I'm not worried about India variant, Pfizer is protecting me, plus I wear mask still every where I go cause I'm not an idiot. If others want to be idiots that's fine, we will never reach herd immunity, but Pfizer is like a suit of armor at this point imo. it seems to stop everything in it's tracks from what I can see.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Australia and NZ did that, illegal or not, and it worked for them.  I'm not worried about India variant, Pfizer is protecting me, plus I wear mask still every where I go cause I'm not an idiot. If others want to be idiots that's fine, we will never reach herd immunity, but Pfizer is like a suit of armor at this point imo. it seems to stop everything in it's tracks from what I can see.


Wrong, neither refused entry to their own citizens, I have a friend who lives in Australia (British born, married to an Australian) and he has been to the UK 3 times during this pandemic because his mother is very ill, he has dual nationality and has not been refused entry for any of his 3 trips back to Australia.

As far as armour goes, the law of averages (efficacy) says that 5 people in 100 will not be protected and dependant on variants that could increase significantly, that's why PCR tests are also required for overseas travel currently, personally I prefer to think of it as offering me a much greater degree of safety, but I am not safe.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 18, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Wrong, neither refused entry to their own citizens, I have a friend who lives in Australia (British born, married to an Australian) and he has been to the UK 3 times during this pandemic because his mother is very ill, he has dual nationality and has not been refused entry for any of his 3 trips back to Australia.
> 
> As far as armour goes, the law of averages (efficacy) says that 5 people in 100 will not be protected and dependant on variants that could increase significantly, that's why PCR tests are also required for overseas travel currently, personally I prefer to think of it as offering me a much greater degree of safety, but I am not safe.











						Australian family stranded in Canada has been waiting since March to return home
					

An Australian family, who was supposed to return home in March, is still stranded in Canada due to Australia’s strict entry restrictions amid the COVID-19 pandemic.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




australia had a cap on amount of citizens they let back in, so I did indeed read it wrong, but your friend was lucky cause he must have timed the cap limit just right. this family did not sadly


----------



## Tatty_One (May 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Australian family stranded in Canada has been waiting since March to return home
> 
> 
> An Australian family, who was supposed to return home in March, is still stranded in Canada due to Australia’s strict entry restrictions amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
> ...


But a cap is not a ban and Australian borders are open now, they are on our green list so we can travel there so the chances are, like the US they will get these variants, you can't keep them out, they just have to be managed and as the scientists say "Test, Test, Test" and hope people isolate, and that is where we have had a problem, less than half of those instructed to isolate throughout this pandemic have done so.


----------



## 64K (May 18, 2021)

It's my understanding that the non-medical masks that are available to the public to buy don't protect the wearer from the virus. They protect others around you from you if you cough or sneeze and you are carrying the Covid-19. They are designed to catch water droplets from a sneeze or a cough but they don't really filter the air that you are breathing in.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 18, 2021)

64K said:


> It's my understanding that the non-medical masks that are available to the public to buy don't protect the wearer from the virus. They protect others around you from you if you cough or sneeze and you are carrying the Covid-19. They are designed to catch water droplets from a sneeze or a cough but they don't really filter the air that you are breathing in.



I've done a lot of research on filters this past year. Like... unhealthy amounts. Not only because of COVID19, but... things got interesting.

The various ratings of filters in the USA are on the MERV scale: MERV8 being usually the lowest-grade / cheapest available at most stores, and MERV13 being the highest before the typical furnace starts to suffer. (HEPA filters are a few steps above MERV13, but are so thick that they require additional pressure that typical air ducts fans are unable to push). Filtering is NOT an "all or nothing" deal. Its a smooth scale. MERV8 has very little efficacy against 0.3um particles (MERV8 only designed to affects 3um and 10um particles and above), while HEPA has 99.97% filtration. MERV9, MERV10, MERV11, MERV12, and MERV13 march closer and closer to efficacy against 0.3um particles.

That's the thing: its a sliding scale, from 20%, to 30%, to 50%, to 70%, to 99.97% (HEPPA). Cotton itself has been tested to be near the 60% efficacy region for the size of particle that most likely contains the virus. Its not perfect, and its not nothing, its just... an imperfect layer of protection. Better than nothing, but obviously worse than a real solution like vaccination (or N95 masks: which are 95% effective. Yes, less than HEPA filters).

------------------

Anyway, here's a quick experiment if you don't believe me. Oxygen / Nitrogen / Carbon Dioxide is 0.00033um in size. Its all over your lungs. Now make a whistle-shape with your mouth and blow a focused stream of air. Feel how far it goes: for me, I can feel maybe a 75% of my full arm's reach (maybe a bit over 15 inches or so). Now, put on a mask, and see how far you can blow the same air with the same mouth position.

You can't get as far, can you? Even though Carbon Dioxide is 0.00033um in size, the mask is still effective at stopping the stream. CO2 / Oxygen / Nitrogen are all much much smaller than virus particles. Why does this happen? Well, it turns out that fluid dynamics gets weird at small sizes. Even though the mask itself has holes larger than 0.00033um (much much, much larger), the fluid dynamics problem of "where does the air move" is a bit more complicated than just "Is X particle smaller than the mesh holes?".

I'm no expert on fluid dynamics, but the experiment is easy to replicate. In fact, even a MERV8 filter clearly cuts down on airflow (!!!) of CO2 / Oxygen / Nitrogen, and that filter has the "largest holes" available from typical hardware stores.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 18, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I've done a lot of research on filters this past year. Like... unhealthy amounts. Not only because of COVID19, but... things got interesting.
> 
> The various ratings of filters in the USA are on the MERV scale: MERV8 being usually the lowest-grade / cheapest available at most stores, and MERV13 being the highest before the typical furnace starts to suffer. (HEPA filters are a few steps above MERV13, but are so thick that they require additional pressure that typical air ducts fans are unable to push). Filtering is NOT an "all or nothing" deal. Its a smooth scale. MERV8 has 0% efficacy against 0.3um particles (MERV8 only affects 3um and 10um particles and above), while HEPA has 99.97% filtration. MERV9, MERV10, MERV11, MERV12, and MERV13 march closer and closer to efficacy against 0.3um particles.
> 
> ...



I have been using a 99.97% HEPA in my bedroom for about a decade now. That's where I spend the most of my time in this short life, so I figured I would do better air, but what gave me the idea to do it a decade ago was my Uncle when he had bone cancer, the Doctor told him he needed a HEPA air purifier in all rooms of his house at all times, and so I started researching it then. 

It's amazing how dirty it gets and how quickly.

I'm honestly surprised more humans don't die/get sick from the terrible air quality, what we have done to mother Earth is mind blowing... but since we can't see it... out of sight... out of mind...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I have been using a 99.97% HEPA in my bedroom for about a decade now. That's where I spend the most of my time in this short life, so I figured I would do better air, but what gave me the idea to do it a decade ago was my Uncle when he had bone cancer, the Doctor told him he needed a HEPA air purifier in all rooms of his house at all times, and so I started researching it then.



MERV13 seems to be the winner in the DIY filter market. HEPA is good with centrifugal fans (high pressure / low air flow). But MERV13 offers higher air flow on typical box-fans. Its better to pass 2x the air at 60% efficacy than to pass 1/2 the air at 99.97% efficacy.

Cleaning 300 CFM air at 60% efficacy is 180 CFM of clean air. However, 150 CFM air at 99.97% efficacy is only 149.99 CFM of clean air. So its not an easy problem: a lower end filter that lets "more air through" could very well beat a higher-end filter (because of how difficult it is to breath through HEPA).

Centrifugal fans (what is in a commercial air purifier) has the strength to push through a HEPA though. So the whole MERV13 thing is mostly a DIY issue.






That there be an axial box fan: high air flow, but low pressure. So a higher-end filter (like HEPA) will choke it up.

-----

EDIT: Box fan is $20, and MERV13 filters are much cheaper than HEPA filters. So a "device" like what is pictured there (4x MERV13 filters + Box Fan) is easily under $70, while commercial air purifiers are much more expensive. Twitter suggests a design like that gives ~300+ CFM (the axial fan normally has 1500 to 2000 CFM, but even a box design like that cuts down the axial fan's airflow significantly).


----------



## the54thvoid (May 18, 2021)

^^ I mean mask 'cynics' seem to be forget that they're used in medical surgery for the same reasons. They reduce the range of expired contaminents.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 18, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> ^^ I mean mask 'cynics' seem to be forget that they're used in medical surgery for the same reasons. They reduce the range of expired contaminents.



I think the problem is that most people just get sniffles with covid, and they don't care about other people. That's humans for ya. Has nothing to do with the science of any of it.

You can play fear games all you want (I myself am very scared of covid cause it kicked my ass), but vast vast majority of people that get covid don't even get sniffles. So people simply don't care.


----------



## Vayra86 (May 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> you said I should let go of my plan ASAP?  I assume you meant to go to England?



Not at all, the complete opposite, just like the idea that I would be against vaccination, but my entire post kinda revolves around me saying vaccination is really the only *solution *here. Not all the other band-aids, most of which are born out of a panic response trying to prevent as much spread as we possibly could. Note that this has been the noise I"ve made since this whole thing started, too.

Once we're moving to a less contagious situation, its a good idea to step away from all those protective aids as well. You're exactly right, its good to start living a normal life again - and the norm is not trying to ban every possible risk. Maybe you always did and thats how you do things, then I guess double masking and all those other, overly extreme measures are indeed the norm for you, then by all means. But normality is also the acceptance of a minor risk, and its good to flip that switch in your mind sooner rather than later.

That is what I meant to say wrt scientific and statistical data too. The comparison with hospitals that was also made up here is another example of it. You're NOT traversing high risk areas, not even when you move through airports. A hospital on the covid wing - thát is a high risk area where the recommendations stand and are initially aimed at. The underlying question is, when is the percentage small enough for you to stop comparing your personal movement with moving around in high risk hospital wings.

My post was, since you're making that trip and were so adamant about all the measures you'd take, a reality check. A perspective. I'm 200% for living the life we should.



lynx29 said:


> I think the problem is that most people just get sniffles with covid, and they don't care about other people. That's humans for ya. Has nothing to do with the science of any of it.
> 
> You can play fear games all you want (I myself am very scared of covid cause it kicked my ass), but vast vast majority of people that get covid don't even get sniffles. So people simply don't care.


No, I know in fact that I'm quite a responsible guy when it comes to spreading disease. I work from home since March 2020 and keep social distancing rules intact where others might cuddle up because its the path of least resistance in a group.

But there are limits and it is a good idea to guard those for your own (mental) health. And in a general sense, I know humans are very bad at risk assessment and generally pick the safe side. I understand the urge, I even feel it myself, and at the same time, I know its not healthy and risk is part of life, and a great teacher. With a virus, threat assessment is a whole box of problems and we're very likely to be overly cautious - even in the face of inevitability.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 18, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Not at all, the complete opposite, just like the idea that I would be against vaccination, but my entire post kinda revolves around me saying vaccination is really the only *solution *here. Not all the other band-aids, most of which are born out of a panic response trying to prevent as much spread as we possibly could. Note that this has been the noise I"ve made since this whole thing started, too.
> 
> Once we're moving to a less contagious situation, its a good idea to step away from all those protective aids as well. You're exactly right, its good to start living a normal life again - and the norm is not trying to ban every possible risk. Maybe you always did and thats how you do things, then I guess double masking and all those other, overly extreme measures are indeed the norm for you, then by all means. But normality is also the acceptance of a minor risk, and its good to flip that switch in your mind sooner rather than later.
> 
> ...




I see, I just misread your first post then, I get what you mean now lol cheers

you are right its a bit overboard. one good mask instead of double masking for a start.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 19, 2021)

Researchers show neutralizing antibodies correlate with COVID protection
					

Antibodies produced by vaccines and infections declined at roughly similar rates.




					arstechnica.com
				




_Antibodies produced by vaccines and infections declined at roughly similar rates, with half-lives of 58 days and 65 days, respectively. But given the strength of the response to vaccines, this result isn't a huge problem. A vaccine with 95 percent efficacy after the second dose would still have an estimated 77 percent efficacy 250 days out. And that's for protection against a symptomatic infection. The protection against severe COVID-19 is much stronger and would likely take far longer to decline.

Vaccines with a lower initial efficacy present more of a potential problem. A starting efficacy of 70 percent would be down to 33 percent efficacy at 250 days._

It seems very clear to me the other vaccines simply need to go and all world governments need to go all in with mRNA.  Vaccines will mean nothing in 250 days in countries like the UK, unless you can convince the same amount of people they need a booster shot... and I honestly doubt you will be able to convince enough needed to get a booster shot every 9 months. mRNA gives the longevity needed for economies to rebound.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 20, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Researchers show neutralizing antibodies correlate with COVID protection
> 
> 
> Antibodies produced by vaccines and infections declined at roughly similar rates.
> ...



well maybe I was wrong...  https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/page-158

see post 3928... this is raising some red flags for me... seriously they should have been studying this stuff from the beginning how do they only now have the results...

I'd really some scientific explanation on this... any takers?


----------



## Tatty_One (May 20, 2021)

Well we already know in the UK that from around October all 50+ (they will have had their 2nd jab much earlier than the younger age ranges) will get a Pfizer Booster jab that will also be "adapted" for new variants.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN
					

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.




					www.cnn.com
				




looks like some people should not have been so quick to make fun of those who believed in lab theory... I believe even in these forums quite a few people were making fun of the previous CDC director for saying there was possibility of lab leak...  now Dr. Fauci says it is possible...


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 24, 2021)

This is really going downhill here quickly.
Most deaths in a single day so far.
Do note that there isn't a whole lot of testing being done.








						Taiwan reports 334 local COVID cases, 6 deaths, with 256 cases added retroactively | Taiwan News | 2021-05-24 21:01:00
					

334 new local cases most announced in one day in Taiwan since start of pandemic | 2021-05-24 21:01:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## thesmokingman (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN
> 
> 
> Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.
> ...


Coronavirus' generally come from animals. There's no proof to substantiate the lab leak claim. Is it possible, sure as anything is possible. Does that mean its true, no at least without.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN
> 
> 
> Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.
> ...



There's also this concept that people are so very quick to ignore. Wuhan was set up to investigate these things. The conspiracies all tend toward 'it was released'. The more plausible explanation is a lab worker caught it from the source. And they then spread it without knowing they had done so. People need to understand the animal kingdom is rife with viruses we've never been exposed to. But, as China and other places expand, we are exposed to more and more pathogens. China knows this, so they set up labs to investigate these viruses. It's entirely feasible a lab worker was exposed to the virus and spread it. But that is actually no different from someone 'catching' it in the wild.

The conspiracy and political models suggest intentional and malicious release. That's the danger of playing political assery with this. Look at it another way. A scientist studying bats gets bitten and develops rabies. It could easily have come from a lab but not in the way the media or politicians suggest.

Have a look at this:









						How China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus
					

Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there




					www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## thesmokingman (May 24, 2021)

The irony is that the US is a world leader in laboratory biosecurity incidents or leaks.

The other thing is that no one seems to think through is why would they release a virus in their own fkn country???


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

thesmokingman said:


> Coronavirus' generally come from animals. There's no proof to substantiate the lab leak claim. Is it possible, sure as anything is possible. Does that mean its true, no at least without.



That's not my point at all. My point is when Fauci says it no one makes fun anymore, but when other said it in past people made fun...  groupthink is an interesting sociological phenomenon imo.



the54thvoid said:


> There's also this concept that people are so very quick to ignore. Wuhan was set up to investigate these things. The conspiracies all tend toward 'it was released'. The more plausible explanation is a lab worker caught it from the source. And they then spread it without knowing they had done so. People need to understand the animal kingdom is rife with viruses we've never been exposed to. But, as China and other places expand, we are exposed to more and more pathogens. China knows this, so they set up labs to investigate these viruses. It's entirely feasible a lab worker was exposed to the virus and spread it. But that is actually no different from someone 'catching' it in the wild.
> 
> The conspiracy and political models suggest intentional and malicious release. That's the danger of playing political assery with this. Look at it another way. A scientist studying bats gets bitten and develops rabies. It could easily have come from a lab but not in the way the media or politicians suggest.




even if what you say right here is true, that's exactly what the previous CDC director and Fauci are both saying, that it was an accident at the lab possibility.  so it looks we all are in agreement then, and no making fun of was needed at all for the last year for those who thought the lab leak was possible.

the timeline of events all point to lab accident/exposure to me, A)  there is only one coronavirus bat research lab in the world to my knowledge, put there due to history of coronavirus coming out of this region B) in recent years this lab was gathering bats from multiple places bats that had higher viral loads to study them this is verified C) 3 workers at this lab were so sick they needed hospitalized in November 2019 D) pandemic happens in the same exact region where this lab is located in December 2019...

the 3 lab workers didn't just have sniffles. they had to be hospitalized... that is pretty damning evidence imo that it was a lab leak or accident.


----------



## R-T-B (May 24, 2021)

thesmokingman said:


> The other thing is that no one seems to think through is why would they release a virus in their own fkn country??


That, and the fact that we aren't even certain WuHan IS the origin site.  There is already evidence it was present stateside a lot earlier than we thought (as far back as November), who knows where it really came from at this point?



lynx29 said:


> that it was an accident at the lab possibility.


even if true, you have to be careful as people will take that news and run with it as "China was weaponizing the virus" or something else such there really is no evidence for.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> That's not my point at all. My point is when Fauci says it no one makes fun anymore, but when other said it in past people made fun...  groupthink is an interesting sociological phenomenon imo.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



They catch bats. They work with the very animals that carry the virus.

The labs are there because of SARS. It's not rocket science. Also, consider that people were contracting these viruses before this all came out. The scientists were there investigating a new virus. Guess what? A new virus is invisible until it is classified and it takes a lab to classify it. Use some logic.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> But that is actually no different from someone 'catching' it in the wild.
> 
> The conspiracy and political models suggest intentional and malicious release. That's the danger of playing political assery with this. Look at it another way. A scientist studying bats gets bitten and develops rabies. It could easily have come from a lab but not in the way the media or politicians suggest.



it is different from someone catching it in the wild though, because some of these bats were taken out of their "zones" from far away, and may have never migrated out of those zones (I don't know about bat migratory patterns so maybe I am wrong here), but this lab was actively collecting bats even from far away to study, without that, who is to say anyone would have caught it by accident?









						Where Are We in Hunting for the Coronavirus’s Origin?
					

More than two years after Covid-19 touched off the worst pandemic in more than a century, scientists have yet to determine its origins. Some of the closest related viruses to the one that causes it, SARS-CoV-2, were found in bats some 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) from the central Chinese city...




					www.bloomberg.com
				




I am 100% in agreement with you that it come from a bat, but I think scientists should have some hubris checks from time to time. Hubris checks do occur sometimes, as when the science community called out that one scientist in China for genetically editing a baby with CRISPR.

edit:  that article is interesting because it shows a sars cov 2 virus (96% similar anyway) in 2012 infecting 6 people. so I 100% agree with you.  i'm just saying maybe... we shouldn't be moving animals around out of hubris we know what we are doing. perhaps instead, portable labs or blood samples should be taken in full protective gear, then the scientist travels back to the said lab. instead of the bat itself being transported outside of its natural "zone"


----------



## R-T-B (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> without that, who is to say anyone would have caught it by accident?


Almost certain to happen.  That's precisely why these labs exist.

And again from your own article, if the closest related bats were 1000 miles from Wuhan, how do we really know Wuhan is the origin?

Answer:  We don't.  Your whole foundation of this argument is based on a lack of evidence.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Almost certain to happen.  That's precisely why these labs exist.





but again Dr. Fauci said May 11th he is not convinced the virus came from natural sources... but all of you are still convinced it was without a doubt. I'll link it again. interesting that even you all now disagree with Fauci... hmm. not sure what to make of any of it now.









						Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN
					

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## thesmokingman (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> but again Dr. Fauci said May 11th he is not convinced the virus came from natural sources... but all of you are still convinced it was without a doubt. I'll link it again. interesting that even you all now disagree with Fauci... hmm. not sure what to make of any of it now.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You need some critical thinking skills man. Thinking something does not equal fact. And this whole shit doesn't do anyone any good. The cats already out of the bag.


----------



## Hemmingstamp (May 24, 2021)

thesmokingman said:


> The cats already out of the bag.


You mean the Bat's already out of the bag  (Couldn't help it, sorry)


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 24, 2021)

I've said it before and I'll say  it again.

COVID19 is a shitty weapon. Good weapons are Anthrax or Smallpox: vaccinations are readily available (although full of side-effects), which means that most people don't want to take vaccines. You can prepare for biological warfare by simply vaccinating your own soldiers before spreading the virus around. That's why bio-weapons are effective: you hurt the enemy, while secretly protecting your own soldiers.

COVID19 in contrast, spread throughout the world with no vaccines available for a year. When the vaccine finally came out, the USA was first to make a decent vaccine. So if China was trying to make a bio-weapon out of COVID19, they did an incredibly shitty job. So shitty, that it strains the imagination to imagine it as a manufactured bioweapon. It would have been far more effective to spread smallpox or Anthrax again (for example) instead of COVID19 if they actually wanted to cause harm.

Better bioweapons exist.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

thesmokingman said:


> You need some critical thinking skills man. Thinking something does not equal fact. And this whole shit doesn't do anyone any good. The cats already out of the bag.




Hmm, well I have already said multiple times I agree with Fauci, and I agree with him here... most likely it did come from a natural source, but not totally convinced it didn't either, same as the link I gave. I never said it was fact. Not once... like most people you are putting words in my mouth to lessen me.

It seems you are the one without critical thinking skills, if you are disagreeing with Fauci, the 50+ year expert. My guess is it came from an underground food market still where humans be eating stuff they shouldn't be eating, but I have not thrown out the idea it was an accident from the lab either, human hubris can manifest in many different ways, for example when they collected these bats, did they isolate them far away in air tight containment areas? Would these bats taken from far away in different regions ever crossed paths naturally/migratorily or was this lab stuff the only place they were exposed together breathing the same air? Many different bat species, and I already admitted I don't know if they have migratory patterns or not.

Criticize all you want, I find nothing wrong with asking questions, and neither should scientists, that's part of the scientific method...



dragontamer5788 said:


> I've said it before and I'll say  it again.
> 
> COVID19 is a shitty weapon. Good weapons are Anthrax or Smallpox: vaccinations are readily available (although full of side-effects), which means that most people don't want to take vaccines. You can prepare for biological warfare by simply vaccinating your own soldiers before spreading the virus around. That's why bio-weapons are effective: you hurt the enemy, while secretly protecting your own soldiers.
> 
> COVID19 in contrast, spread throughout the world with no vaccines available for a year. When the vaccine finally came out, the USA was first to make a decent vaccine. So if China was trying to make a bio-weapon out of COVID19, they did an incredibly shitty job. So shitty, that it strains the imagination to imagine it as a manufactured bioweapon. It would have been far more effective to spread smallpox again (for example) instead of COVID19 if they actually wanted to cause harm.



no one is even talking about weapons here... but ok great way to derail the discussion... lol


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> no one is even talking about weapons here... but ok great way to derail the discussion... lol



Wait, I thought you were talking about "manufacturing" a disease? What other purpose to manufacturing diseases is there aside from bio-weapons?

I guess I'm not understanding the implications of your argument. Lets say China "manufactured" COVID19. Why would they do this? A bio-weapon is the most natural argument in my brain. I'm not really seeing other possibilities.


----------



## R-T-B (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> but again Dr. Fauci said May 11th he is not convinced the virus came from natural sources... but all of you are still convinced it was without a doubt. I'll link it again. interesting that even you all now disagree with Fauci... hmm. not sure what to make of any of it now.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There is a difference between saying something is possible and believing it actually is what factually happened.

I'm open to the idea, like Dr. Fauci.  But there is no evidence to substantiate it yet.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Wait, I thought you were talking about "manufacturing" a disease? What other purpose to manufacturing diseases is there aside from bio-weapons?
> 
> I guess I'm not understanding the implications of your argument. Lets say China "manufactured" COVID19. Why would they do this? A bio-weapon is the most natural argument in my brain. I'm not really seeing other possibilities.



did you read any of the posts? lol... wow...  no one has talked about this even once... 

this was about how people last year and even recently were making fun of the CDC director for suggesting covid may have been a lab accident, but Fauci on May 11th... I posted the link twice already... on CNN stated he was not totally convinced it came from natural sources.  suggesting a lab accident possibility.

the hypocrisy, is all I was pointing out...


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> There is a difference between saying something is possible and believing it actually is what factually happened.
> 
> I'm open to the idea, like Dr. Fauci.  But there is no evidence to substantiate it yet.




I never said there was any evidence to substantiate, just thought it was interesting how everyone made fun of other people for suggesting it was possible, but Fauci says it and no one makes fun of him, as I said before, just pointing out that groupthink is rather funny sometimes.


----------



## thesmokingman (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Hmm, well I have already said multiple times I agree with Fauci, and I agree with him here... most likely it did come from a natural source, but not totally convinced it didn't either, same as the link I gave. I never said it was fact. Not once... like most people you are putting words in my mouth to lessen me.
> 
> It seems you are the one without critical thinking skills, if you are disagreeing with Fauci, the 50+ year expert. My guess is it came from an underground food market still where humans be eating stuff they shouldn't be eating, but I have not thrown out the idea it was an accident from the lab either, human hubris can manifest in many different ways, for example when they collected these bats, did they isolate them far away in air tight containment areas? Would these bats taken from far away in different regions ever crossed paths naturally/migratorily or was this lab stuff the only place they were exposed together breathing the same air? Many different bat species, and I already admitted I don't know if they have migratory patterns or not.
> 
> ...


This is your problem. You're clueless to Fauci's contradictions. So... was he right in 2020 or 2021?









						Dr. Fauci Dismisses Wuhan Lab as Source of Coronavirus, Contradicting Trump
					

"If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what's out there now, [the scientific evidence] is very, very strongly leaning toward this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated," Fauci said.




					www.newsweek.com
				






> *Dr. Anthony Fauci, the scientific face of America's pandemic response, dismissed the theory that coronavirus originated in a lab in Wuhan, contradicting the president and his Secretary of State in an escalating confrontation with China.
> 
> "The best evidence shows the virus behind the pandemic was not made in a lab in China," Dr. Anthony Fauci said in an exclusive interview with National Geographic published on Monday. "Everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species."*


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

thesmokingman said:


> This is your problem. You're clueless to Fauci's contradictions. So... was he right in 2020 or 2021?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Unless new evidence or argumentation arrived on Fauci's doorstep to make him change his mind I agree with you, seems like a contradiction, but if he has new information that he has not shared since that 2020 statement, then I disagree with you. This isn't being clueless, it's being objective.


----------



## thesmokingman (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Unless new evidence or argumentation arrived on Fauci's doorstep to make him change his mind I agree with you, seems like a contradiction, but if he has new information that he has not shared since that 2020 statement, then I disagree with you. This isn't being clueless, it's being objective.


Where are your facts then?????


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> may have been a lab accident



You keep focusing on *unnatural sources*. Which means, you think that COVID19 may have been manufactured. Why would a lab be experimenting / manufacturing a virus?

I mean, that's really the two possibilities: either the virus came from nature ("natural"), or it was created by man ("manufactured" or "unnatural"). If it was manufactured, then it was manufactured for a reason (the most likely reason being bio-weapon). Its not splitting hairs, its the simple implication of the line of reasoning.

I don't believe I'm causing any false-dichotomy here. Natural vs manufactured seems to be a true dichotomy, with no other possibilities. Please let me know if my logic is unsound with any of those steps. That's why I reject the "unnatural" argument, at least for now. There's all sorts of things that just don't add up in my brain. There'd have to be a significant change in the evidence presented (maybe even a discussion for the motivation of "creating" the virus) before I am convinced of "unnatural" origins of COVID19.

--------

The "natural" origins are pretty obvious. COVID19 starts to spread, maybe as early as September 2019 (or even earlier). The Wuhan lab captured the virus and started studying it, because that's literally what it's supposed to be doing. (Especially since SARS wrecked China nearly 15 years ago: so that population would care very much about understanding novel coronavirus diseases) I mean, maybe there's a conspiracy here, but I'm not seeing it. If a conspiracy exists, I'll need a good argument and/or evidence before I change my opinion on the matter.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Criticize all you want, I find nothing wrong with asking questions, and neither should scientists, that's part of the scientific method...



No. It's not. And this is exactly where pseudoscience pollutes the exacting nature of science. The scientific method (and the clue is in the word 'method') is to demonstrate a verifiable procedure to reproduce the same result. This is how science works. I suggest experiment 'A' to validate my hypothesis, itself, ideally based on a 'null' hypothesis where I ought to attempt to prove my theory by failing at dispproving it.

Scienctific theory requires a method by which scientists can attempt to replicate the results. After umpteen positive, or negative, results, a theory is established. The strength of that theory may be eroded over time with greater understanding of the matter.

You're not talking about science here. You're discussing *opinion*. Don't confuse the two. Dr Fauci may be a scientist but his opinion is not scientific unless he can produce a way that others can verify it. And that is the sting. China will do everything to deny an accidental release. All governments do - it's their job to protect their national identity. We will never know (because we'll not be allowed to investigate properly) how the virus was released. So, don't use the term 'science' to describe anything related to how we know what happened. That horse has long gone.

And BTW, here's the stinger. The *German* (BioNtech) vaccine (produced by Pfizer labs) is the most effective vaccine. It beats the Chinese version. Isn't that amazing? The country that supposedly 'released' the virus doesn't have a 100% effective vaccine. Cue the fucking Twilight zone music.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

thesmokingman said:


> Where are your facts then?????



I never claimed anything in any of my posts? As I said many times, was just pointing out the hypocrisy that occurs with groupthink. It seems to me we are still at square 1 knowing where the virus came from, food markets, lab accident, and possibly even pangolin... I will see there does seem to be some evidence regarding the November 2019 3 Wuhan lab scientists getting sick and being hospitalized... then in December 2019 the Wuhan outbreak, that does seem to be odd timing, but again we both agree its not definitive.

Also, evidence is only the outcome of the scientific method... so instead of criticizing me perhaps instead you should have commented on whether or not my thinking was logical or not? In regards to the bat collection at the Wuhan Lab, is it important for bats collected from various regions to be separated in airtight locations, or could Covid have emerged from multiple species that in past may not have come into contact with each other without human intervention - create a new virus by the mixture of air between them? I simply don't know, perhaps I am even asking the question wrong as I don't know anything about bats or their migratory patterns. This is my point though... so quick to judge, so quick to assume the scientists can account for every single variable... no one human is possible for making sure every single variable is covered in any experimentation, we can do our best true, but its impossible to be absolute as there are simply to many variables at play. Maybe the mask one of them wore one day had a slight snag in it during the manufacturing process, exposing the lab worker more so than normal that day... see what I mean? The supply chain itself is infinite variables.



the54thvoid said:


> No. It's not. And this is exactly where pseudoscience pollutes the exacting nature of science. The scientific method (and the clue is in the word 'method') is to demonstrate a verifiable procedure to reproduce the same result. This is how science works. I suggest experiment 'A' to validate my hypothesis, itself, ideally based on a 'null' hypothesis where I ought to attempt to prove my theory by failing at dispproving it.
> 
> Scienctific theory requires a method by which scientists can attempt to replicate the results. After umpteen positive, or negative, results, a theory is established. The strength of that theory may be eroded over time with greater understanding of the matter.
> 
> ...




like I said before, I mostly believe the underground food markets as the source for the virus, it just makes logical sense, but like Fauci who has 50+ years of experience, I am not ruling out the possibility of human error.

BioNTech saved the day I agree, not sure what your point with that was, I have said that for awhile now.  /shrug

I admitted several times I was discussing opinion... again not sure what your point was here.

edit:  I think you misread the posts and focused on @dragontamer5788 post... Fauci on May 11 and, previous CDC director who most made fun of, suggested it was lab accident... no one said anything about the need for your twilight zone music comment.  but mmk


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> It seems to me we are still at square 1 knowing where the virus came from, food markets, lab accident, and possibly even pangolin



Life is full of uncertainty. No one knows anything, we just work off of the best information available. The best information changes, and even self-contradicts itself as time goes on. No biggie, we change our views as new evidence comes up.

EDIT: And proposing new theories can be helpful, but only if there's evidence for those new theories. Just shooting into the dark turns into a "Texas Sharpshooter" fallacy. If you throw out enough guesses, eventually you're right but for the wrong reasons.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> edit: I think you misread the posts and focused on @dragontamer5788 post... Fauci on May 11 and, previous CDC director who most made fun of, suggested it was lab accident... no one said anything about the need for your twilight zone music comment. but mmk











						Wuhan Lab Helped Chinese Army in Secret Project to Find Animal Viruses
					

Despite its repeated denials, revelations are coming out the Chinese government has been working on a secret military project for 9 years to find and research animal viruses, according to documents obtained by the U.K.'s Daily Mail on Sunday....




					www.newsmax.com
				




Are you unaware of the current political environment? Its not hard to find people talking about this "secret government army project" crap. This is the stuff my coworkers talk about, my sister's husband's family talks about, etc. etc. I'm not trying to be overtly political here or anything, but it helps to establish a baseline.

This "bioweapon" theory is pretty strong as a political undercurrent. Lots and lots of people are talking about it, and I don't think it has any legs to stand on.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Life is full of uncertainty. No one knows anything, we just work off of the best information available. The best information changes, and even self-contradicts itself as time goes on. No biggie, we change our views as new evidence comes up.
> 
> EDIT: And proposing new theories can be helpful, but only if there's evidence for those new theories. Just shooting into the dark turns into a "Texas Sharpshooter" fallacy. If you throw out enough guesses, eventually you're right but for the wrong reasons.



Agreed, perhaps that means we shouldn't make fun of former CDC directors who agree with Fauci.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Wuhan Lab Helped Chinese Army in Secret Project to Find Animal Viruses
> 
> 
> Despite its repeated denials, revelations are coming out the Chinese government has been working on a secret military project for 9 years to find and research animal viruses, according to documents obtained by the U.K.'s Daily Mail on Sunday....
> ...



I have never read Newsmax once in my life and I'm not clicking that link, everyone knows its propaganda site... perhaps you shouldn't be giving them free advertising? I link a CNN site with Fauci agreeing with former CDC director everyone else made fun of for suggesting the same thing, and you post an article from this site to dictate something to me? Whatever that is... not sure it's on topic but you do you man. LOL


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> everyone knows its propaganda site



I interact with people who believe in it all the time in my day-to-day life. We all have different social circles. Please consider the viewpoint from my side of things: I can hear my coworkers discussing Newsmax around the office. I can hear my sister's husband + his family talking about these points on a regular basis. I have uncles and cousins... and even my own mother discusses points that come from this sphere (not necessarily Newsmax in particular: but Shapiro, Drudge Report, Fox, Tucker, etc. etc.). Its important that I keep up with those arguments so that I know what the hell my own social circle is coming from.

It doesn't mean I believe in what they say. It just means that I'm aware of the arguments being presented. If you don't have to deal with people who fall for this propaganda crap in your life, then sure, maybe you don't have to care. But its something that comes up somewhat regularly in my social life.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I interact with people who believe in it all the time in my day-to-day life. We all have different social circles. Please consider the viewpoint from my side of things: I can hear my coworkers discussing Newsmax around the office. I can hear my sister's husband + his family talking about these points on a regular basis. I have uncles and cousins... and even my own mother discusses points that come from this sphere (not necessarily Newsmax in particular: but Shapiro, Drudge Report, Fox, Tucker, etc. etc.). Its important that I keep up with those arguments so that I know what the hell my own social circle is coming from.
> 
> It doesn't mean I believe in what they say. It just means that I'm aware of the arguments being presented. If you don't have to deal with people who fall for this propaganda crap in your life, then sure, maybe you don't have to care. But its something that comes up somewhat regularly in my social life.



Perhaps instead of worrying about this stuff, you should instead hone yourself so you can counter any argument they make, as I have done here in the last few pages of posts. You yourself took me out of context, and I informed you with basic logic how you were off-topic, and it seems that you agreed.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> you should instead hone yourself so you can counter any argument they make,



These people don't work off of logic. I love my mother, but no. Its not worth discussing things seriously with her. Its also socially unacceptable to insert myself into the arguments / shit-talking my coworkers do. Just because they're loud doesn't mean its an open-invitation for me to walk up and "ummm actually" them.

Its life. I sit and I listen. I understand. If anyone wants to discuss things with me, I'll talk to them, using my understanding of general politics to estimate their viewpoint. If I'm wrong with the initial estimate, that's fine, it will be discovered as the discussion progresses. But honestly, most people who are talking about "unnatural" origins of COVID19 are in fact, moving towards "bioweapon" conspiracy theories. That's why I jumped in that direction.

If you're just saying "Oh, it may have popped up in that food market in Wuhan", that's not really a big deal, and that's a reasonable viewpoint to have. But I suggest that you don't use words that are similar to other people's words if you don't want to be confused with them in the future.

EDIT: The main useful bit about keeping up with the right-wing nutjob talk, is that when idiotic propaganda comes out of my Mother's mouth, I won't overreact to it. I'd have heard it before from the original propaganda sites, and will be better able to hold my composure. As such, we have a more natural discussion (especially because my Mom isn't a right-wing nut. She doesn't constantly talk about right-wing propaganda. Its just thrown in there as a side comment every now and then). In contrast, if I keep myself ignorant about this stuff, then I overreact and am tempted to correct my Mom on those tangents.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> But I suggest that you don't use words that are similar to other people's words if you don't want to be confused with them in the future.



I never used similar words to them... I used similar words to Fauci... but mmk


----------



## claes (May 24, 2021)

It’s more that you’re beating the drum so hard. Fauci, PR specialist that he is, would probably just say “I don’t know because we don’t have absolute certainty due to the geopolitical landscape and lack of scrutiny/transparency as to the origin” rather than play skeptic, as many with geopolitical objectives are currently doing on their respective ideological mediums.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 24, 2021)

claes said:


> It’s more that you’re beating the drum so hard. Fauci, PR specialist that he is, would probably just say “I don’t know because we don’t have absolute certainty due to the geopolitical landscape and lack of scrutiny/transparency as to the origin” rather than play skeptic, as many with geopolitical objectives are currently doing on their respective ideological mediums.




Did you not watch the video in the link I provided twice where Fauci talks about this on May 11th?  You are just assuming you know what he said in that video?

I'm beating the drum so hard because of this very reason, so many assumptions, so much tribalism... I wonder what would have happened if the former CDC Director said the lab accident possibility and Fauci backed it up with what he said in that video May 11th. I wonder if so many people would have still made fun of that CDC Director so much?  Interesting to contemplate...  that's all I was trying to highlight.


----------



## SaLaDiN666 (May 24, 2021)

The origin of the virus is not known. The animal zero hasn't been found, the market is not confirmed as the source of the virus, the only thing which is confirmed that there were a few infected people around. 

If that market was underground, a closed area without circulating air, the likely possibility is that simply infected people/spreaders visited it and others got infected. If there really was the animal zero, the people who regularly sell there and spend plenty of time, would get infected en masse. That didn't happen.

Secondly, with current technology, we have no way of knowing if the naturally developed virus was manipulated or not. Anyone telling the opposite is simply lying.


----------



## LFaWolf (May 24, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I interact with people who believe in it all the time in my day-to-day life. We all have different social circles. Please consider the viewpoint from my side of things: I can hear my coworkers discussing Newsmax around the office. I can hear my sister's husband + his family talking about these points on a regular basis. I have uncles and cousins... and even my own mother discusses points that come from this sphere (not necessarily Newsmax in particular: but Shapiro, Drudge Report, Fox, Tucker, etc. etc.). Its important that I keep up with those arguments so that I know what the hell my own social circle is coming from.
> 
> It doesn't mean I believe in what they say. It just means that I'm aware of the arguments being presented. If you don't have to deal with people who fall for this propaganda crap in your life, then sure, maybe you don't have to care. But its something that comes up somewhat regularly in my social life.


You have my sympathy to be surrounded by so many Qs. Stay strong. my friend, and don't let them influence your thinking.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 24, 2021)

This has gone way off base.

Maps, science, data, and stats. That's this thread.

The Lounge thread should satisfy the vagueness of supposition and opinion. Post deletions will follow if they're not on topic.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 24, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> You have my sympathy to be surrounded by so many Qs. Stay strong. my friend, and don't let them influence your thinking.



I've got a proper response to this over in the other thread.

But to bring us back to topic:






Here in my state, we've gone from ~20,000 first dose administrations/day to ~8000. I know these statistics slow down over the weekend (so today's Monday stats are depressed: people prefer to get vaccinated during the weekday). So I'll give it a few more days before concluding... but...

We're slowing down our vaccination rate at this point. A slowdown was always going to occur as the "lazy" people and eventually "anti-vaxxers" are left.





As you can see, the highest vaccination rate was a month ago. We've been on the decline since then: fewer and fewer people are going into the vaccination centers. Granted, we're past the "50%" mark (over 50% of people who can be vaccinated are vaccinated). But this is why things like COVID19 vaccine lotteries are beginning to be a thing: we need to encourage this last 30% of people to get vaccinated: the sooner the better.


----------



## HTC (May 24, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 22515 active cases --- 240 more --- 34 more per day
- 805692 recovered --- 2792 more --- 399 more per day
- 17017 fatalities --- 10 more --- 1 more per day
- 845224 confirmed infected --- 3042 more --- 435 more per day

- 11431364 tests taken --- 298355 more --- 37294 more per day but was last updated May 23rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 4941964 vaccinated --- 4559467 more --- last updated yesterday but that corresponds to 3413468 1st doses + 1528496 2nd doses
- 220 hospitalized --- *25 less --- 4 less per day*
- 58 in ICU --- *18 less --- 3 less per day*

The main report wasn't published on Tuesday, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities dropped VS last week and we also had *TWO more days with zero fatalities*: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 8th consecutive week. New cases increased a bit and the R number increased to 1.03 on average. Roughly 34% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 15% have received both doses.

The fact that the R number is over 1 worries me but, because almost all of those most vulnerable have @ least 1 dose of the vaccine, both hospitalization and ICU numbers have been steadily declining.


----------



## R-T-B (May 25, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> this was about how people last year and even recently were making fun of the CDC director for suggesting covid may have been a lab accident,


I mean I still make fun of them in the way I make fun of people who believe in Aliens.

I don't rule out the possibility Aliens might be real, but believing some of the crap they believe is happening without evidence is comical.

There's no danger in not ruling something out.  There is a danger in making a leap of faith without evidence.  Many are doing that latter.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 25, 2021)

HTC said:


> The fact that the R number is over 1 worries me but, because almost all of those most vulnerable have @ least 1 dose of the vaccine, both hospitalization and ICU numbers have been steadily declining.


Assuming you have opened your borders to more than just us Brits (rumour has it there is near to 250,000 of us on holiday in Portugal currently) I think it is likely that your R number will increase, some say that as vaccination programs progress R numbers will have less meaning in so much that like the common influenza strains nobody is interested in who has caught the flu and is unwell, things only become significant if they get hospitalised or die, but obviously we are not there yet.


----------



## HTC (May 25, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Assuming you have opened your borders to more than just us Brits (rumour has it there is near to 250,000 of us on holiday in Portugal currently) I think it is likely that your R number will increase, some say that as vaccination programs progress R numbers will have less meaning in so much that like the common influenza strains nobody is interested in who has caught the flu and is unwell, things only become significant if they get hospitalised or die, but obviously we are not there yet.



Except it has been increasing since before the borders were open: about 2 or 3 days before, actually.

We suspect it's because of the football title celebrations where ... obviously ... most of those celebrating ignored the social distancing and masking rules.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 26, 2021)

Shit is really starting to hit the fan in Taiwan.
11 dead, 633 cases today.








						LIVE | Tracking Taiwan’s COVID-19 Outbreak: The Latest News from Taiwan’s 22 Counties at a Glance | CommonWealth Magazine
					

Taiwan’s recent COVID-19 outbreak started with the China Airlines and Novotel clusters before spreading to tea parlors in Wanhua, Taipei City. Follow CommonWealth for the latest developments in the domestic outbreak and information about locations visited by confirmed cases.




					web.cw.com.tw


----------



## Space Lynx (May 27, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Shit is really starting to hit the fan in Taiwan.
> 11 dead, 633 cases today.
> 
> 
> ...



Are people reacting to the news though? Surely with a spike like that people are wearing masks now more often, being a bit safer, etc? That website you linked says 300,000 vaccines given in Taiwan so far, so I am hoping that is a lot of the older people... hopefully those two things combined slows it down enough the deaths don't get out of hand... anyways keep us updated in coming weeks, positive stuff I hope!


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Are people reacting to the news though? Surely with a spike like that people are wearing masks now more often, being a bit safer, etc? That website you linked says 300,000 vaccines given in Taiwan so far, so I am hoping that is a lot of the older people... hopefully those two things combined slows it down enough the deaths don't get out of hand... anyways keep us updated in coming weeks, positive stuff I hope!


You get fined if you're not wearing a mask, although, surprisingly there are anti maskers in Taiwan, which I really didn't expect.
Taiwan doesn't have much vaccine, as they were only given 700k doses AZ from covax for a population of 23 million. No-one wanted that initially, so you could pay $20 to get it but that was cancelled before we could get ours and it's now given to medical staff.
 The PRC is blocking access to vaccines and are trying to force Taiwan to use their inferior vaccine.
Locally developed vaccines are expected in July.


671 new cases and 13 deaths today.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 27, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> 671 new cases and 13 deaths today.



Is there any %Positive statistic tracking in Taiwan?

At least in the USA, we were using %Positive to determine "how reliable" case# was. Death-counts are the most accurate, but it takes about ~1 month to die from COVID19, so that data comes in "too late" so to speak. Case# is unreliable, but we can at least get an estimate of "how unreliable" it is by taking a look at the number of tests (including negative tests).

We can use July 2021 death-counts to learn about June 2021 or May 2021. So death counts are useful for sure. But... its a mistake to think of death counts as a "current" statistic. Death counts are very much out of date by the time the bean-counting / tallying up / statistics are run.

The rule of thumb in the USA is that you aim for 5% positive. That is, for every positive case detected, there should be 19-cases that were tested but negative. Or, to match your 671 new cases statistic, you want to see 12749 negative tests (or more).


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 28, 2021)

555 new cases and 19 deaths.
The death toll is increasing daily now.








						Taiwan reports 297 local COVID cases, 19 deaths, 258 retroactive cases | Taiwan News | 2021-05-28 14:27:00
					

19 deaths single-day high in Taiwan, total death toll rises to 78 | 2021-05-28 14:27:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




And this is the petty kind of crap that's going on, thanks to the PRC.








						BioNTech made Taiwan remove 'country' from press release before nixing vaccine contract | Taiwan News | 2021-05-28 12:53:00
					

German company halted contract for vaccines indefinitely after having Taiwan remove 'country' from press release  | 2021-05-28 12:53:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




At least Taiwan seems to be getting what others don't want...








						Japan considers sending AZ vaccines to Taiwan in June | Taiwan News | 2021-05-28 12:59:00
					

Japanese government may ship AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines to Taiwan next month | 2021-05-28 12:59:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Vayra86 (May 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN
> 
> 
> Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.
> ...


Doubt with no substance, I might add.

Like SARS in 2003, this is just a repeat of inevitable events. Markets in China, wild animals. There is nothing to be all suspicious about and world community is watching and aiding research. The WHO is comprised of researchers from across the globe.

Note: Edited by moderator to remove a minor political reference.


----------



## HTC (May 28, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> *And this is the petty kind of crap that's going on, thanks to the PRC.*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's CRIMINAL: they should be sued for @ least two thirds of ALL their profits from selling the vaccine so that THIS CRAP never EVER happens again.

Vaccines are NOT political tools.


----------



## Caring1 (May 28, 2021)

HTC said:


> That's CRIMINAL: they should be sued for @ least two thirds of ALL their profits from selling the vaccine so that THIS CRAP never EVER happens again.
> 
> Vaccines are NOT political tools.


Why sue the company when it was China forcing the conditions on them?
China is using vaccines as a political tool.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 28, 2021)

The UK ordered about 340 million doses from 6 companies in August 2020. Taiwan left it a little late, as can be seen from the EU/UK bickering where the UK order affected the EU share.

You'll probably find out that the UK's partly responsible for buying enough vaccine to cover the entire population 2-3x over.

But yeah, there's a snifter of corporate cowardice there. Of note, China can't stop a company selling to Taiwan. Biontech is probably hedging bets its lose its Chinese market if it helped Taiwan.

Remember folks, capitalism knows no loyalty.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 28, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> The UK ordered about 340 million doses from 6 companies in August 2020. Taiwan left it a little late, as can be seen from the EU/UK bickering where the UK order affected the EU share.
> 
> You'll probably find out that the UK's partly responsible for buying enough vaccine to cover the entire population 2-3x over.
> 
> ...


They've tried to negotiate other deals, that was just one is many and yes it was a bit late, but I guess Taiwan wanted to be sure they spent their money on a working vaccine.

A lot of things involving money goes the way of the PRC. You'd think a "communist" nation would act differently, but apparently everyone aren't equal after all...


----------



## the54thvoid (May 28, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> They've tried to negotiate other deals, that was just one is many and yes it was a bit late, but I guess Taiwan wanted to be sure they spent their money on a working vaccine.
> 
> A lot of things involving money goes the way of the PRC. You'd think a "communist" nation would act differently, but apparently everyone aren't equal after all...


You've read Animal Farm?

"All animals are created equal."
"But some are more equal than others."


----------



## Space Lynx (May 28, 2021)

back on topic, does anyone have any stats comparing Moderna and Pfizer over the long term, the changes in efficacy against variants long term, comparison of both? I know pfizer is down to like 88% efficacy against the Indian Variant vs the 95% efficacy against original variant... and I'm wondering where Moderna stands on this, as well as others...
Astra Zeneca vaccine seems to be 60% efficacy against Indian variant. We probably don't have any data on Moderna since UK doesn't have Moderna and that's mainly where the Indian variant is? Is Moderna being used in India?

I just want to see some more stats comparing Moderna and Pfizer and efficacy rates over time... if anyone has seen any good sources please let me know, thanks


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 28, 2021)

Things just got interesting;








						Facebook no longer treating 'man-made' Covid as a crackpot idea
					

Facebook’s policy tweak arrives as support surges in Washington for a fuller investigation into the origins of Covid-19.




					www.politico.com


----------



## the54thvoid (May 28, 2021)

What FB does has no bearing on anything Covid related. They're just happy to allow more nonsense chatter. The only difference now is a more 'measured' approach is being taken that isn't quite as openly hostile.

There's a lot going on here that transcends simple politics but effectively, a conspiracy was previously 'supported' by someone in power. That led to rampant and practically racist behaviour. It also meant it was difficult to rationally discuss the problem of origin without being seen as 'allied' to the conspiracy. A lot of people stepped away from that discussion. Now, a more 'reasoned' approach is being taken, and scientists are more relaxed about getting involved.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 28, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> What FB does has no bearing on anything Covid related. They're just happy to allow more nonsense chatter. The only difference now is a more 'measured' approach is being taken that isn't quite as openly hostile.
> 
> There's a lot going on here that transcends simple politics but effectively, a conspiracy was previously 'supported' by someone in power. That led to rampant and practically racist behaviour. It also meant it was difficult to rationally discuss the problem of origin without being seen as 'allied' to the conspiracy. A lot of people stepped away from that discussion. Now, a more 'reasoned' approach is being taken, and scientists are more relaxed about getting involved.











						Biden tells intelligence agencies to step up probe of COVID-19's origins, including theory of Wuhan lab leak
					

US intelligence is focused on animal-to-human transmission or a possible lab accident in Wuhan, China, as the coronavirus' starting point.



					www.usatoday.com
				




As far as data of tracking Covid goes, Biden has ordered the Intelligence Community to report to him within 90 days. Apparently there is new evidence it may have come from lab. I understand your logic on this, but in America, if you even whispered the idea of it might have been a lab leak last year you were made fun of and ridiculed by the general public, I saw late night comedy hosts making fun of people for it too. Anyways, that's neither here nor there, but it is rather scary this might be an actual thing...

The hubris of humans...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 28, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> 555 new cases and 19 deaths.
> The death toll is increasing daily now.
> 
> 
> ...



Hmmm...



> Taiwan has carried out 455,198 COVID-19 tests, with 397,534 coming back negative



That's 12% positive. That's not good. Taiwan is likely undertesting by significant margins. (Anything higher than 5% positive suggests that you aren't testing enough).


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 28, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Hmmm...
> 
> 
> 
> That's 12% positive. That's not good. Taiwan is likely undertesting by significant margins. (Anything higher than 5% positive suggests that you aren't testing enough).


Oh, they are, as they are telling people not to get tested unless they have symptoms. They also don't have enough tests, made it illegal to sell tests online to end consumers and they might not have enough staff to do the tests. 
Up here on the north side of the island shit is really starting to hit the fan and it's only going to get worse for some time, but the government is trying their best to stay away from a lockdown, as they know the companies are going to be pissed off. 
That said, a lot of shops have closed voluntary, but I guess that also means the staff doesn't get paid...


----------



## the54thvoid (May 28, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Oh, they are, as they are telling people not to get tested unless they have symptoms. They also don't have enough tests, made it illegal to sell tests online to end consumers and they might not have enough staff to do the tests.
> Up here on the north side of the island shit is really starting to hit the fan and it's only going to get worse for some time, but the government is trying their best to stay away from a lockdown, *as they know the companies are going to be pissed of*f.
> That said, a lot of shops have closed voluntary, but I guess that also means the staff doesn't get paid...



TSMC..... Oh great. Chip shortage and price increases incoming.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 28, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Oh, they are, as they are telling people not to get tested unless they have symptoms. They also don't have enough tests, made it illegal to sell tests online to end consumers and they might not have enough staff to do the tests.



I mean, if you don't have enough tests, then those restrictions make sense. It makes sense to sacrifice the statistical / bean counting quality in favor of saving more lives / saving precious hospital beds for the incoming rush. (And if someone has a mild case, you want them to stay home, in the hopes that they don't need to use the hospital system's resources).

If you guys don't have enough tests today, it will take weeks or even months to import tests and ramp up the hospital system / testing framework. Obviously, it would have been ideal to have a testing posture ready a few months ago but... no point crying over spilled milk at this point.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 28, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> TSMC..... Oh great. Chip shortage and price increases incoming.


Their closest fab is in Hsinchu which is about an hours drive from Taipei.



dragontamer5788 said:


> I mean, if you don't have enough tests, then those restrictions make sense. It makes sense to sacrifice the statistical / bean counting quality in favor of saving more lives / saving precious hospital beds for the incoming rush. (And if someone has a mild case, you want them to stay home, in the hopes that they don't need to use the hospital system's resources).
> 
> If you guys don't have enough tests today, it will take weeks or even months to import tests and ramp up the hospital system / testing framework. Obviously, it would have been ideal to have a testing posture ready a few months ago but... no point crying over spilled milk at this point.


Ah, you'd think so, but people are complaining that they don't get a hospital bed as soon as they get a cold, as it could be the virus. So now they have a situation where some of the hospitals are full... This is partially due to a few people that have been told to stay at home, have actually died before they've made it the hospital.

No need to import, they make them locally. Luckily Taiwan has been investing a lot in medical and biotech over the past decade or so, which means they have the resources to make most things. From what I read in the news, at least three companies are making the tests now and they expect this to solve the shortage.

You're correct that that Taiwan was overconfident and then reacted too slowly once the spread was a fact. Now it seems like they're trying to catch up, which isn't going to be a likely outcome. Hopefully they can contain the virus to the northern part of the island in as much as possible, but I believe that too is going to be hard.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 28, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> You're correct that that Taiwan was overconfident and then reacted too slowly once the spread was a fact. Now it seems like they're trying to catch up, which isn't going to be a likely outcome. Hopefully they can contain the virus to the northern part of the island in as much as possible, but I believe that too is going to be hard.



Taiwan is still lucky that they're entering this period of growth in the spring/summer months. COVID19 undoubtedly spreads faster and harder during the cold winter months.

Is there any word which variant is most common? If its the UK variant, things will be very tough. If its the original variant, you'll have an easier time.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 29, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Taiwan is still lucky that they're entering this period of growth in the spring/summer months. COVID19 undoubtedly spreads faster and harder during the cold winter months.
> 
> Is there any word which variant is most common? If its the UK variant, things will be very tough. If its the original variant, you'll have an easier time.


No, they don't seem to be checking that, or at least it doesn't seem to matter to the press, as it's not being reported on.
According to this, it seems like at least some cases are of the UK variant.








						COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




21 deaths since yesterday, so it's seemingly getting worse and worse.
493 new cases.
Taiwan is really using some creative accounting at this point, as it's 320 "new" cases, plus 166 "old" cases that the tests came through for and seven "imported" cases.  








						Taiwan reports 320 local COVID cases, 21 deaths, 166 backlog cases | Taiwan News | 2021-05-29 14:29:00
					

New single-day record of 21 deaths, total number now stands at 99 | 2021-05-29 14:29:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Tatty_One (May 29, 2021)

I think the UK variant is pretty much worldwide now, a news piece this morning on TV also said that it's likely the Indian variant is also, whilst our infection rates are low the Indian variant now accounts for 75% of all new cases, probably because it is even more transmissible than the UK variant.


----------



## HTC (May 29, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> I think the UK variant is pretty much worldwide now, a news piece this morning on TV also said that it's likely the Indian variant is also, whilst our infection rates are low *the Indian variant now accounts for 75% of all new cases, probably because it is even more transmissible than the UK variant*.



Not being aggressive enough in tackling the CURRENT variants (not lifting the patents on the existing vaccines so that they get manufactured as soon as humanly possible) can lead to worse strains via mutations: if a new mutation gets a substantially higher R value (like 10+) or another new mutation gets much more severe symptoms for the same number of cases (not necessarily deaths as hospitalizations would be just as crippling), the effects we have been experiencing since this pandemic began could be just the tip of the iceberg ...


----------



## Space Lynx (May 29, 2021)

HTC said:


> Not being aggressive enough in tackling the CURRENT variants (not lifting the patents on the existing vaccines so that they get manufactured as soon as humanly possible) can lead to worse strains via mutations: if a new mutation gets a substantially higher R value (like 10+) or another new mutation gets much more severe symptoms for the same number of cases (not necessarily deaths as hospitalizations would be just as crippling), the effects we have been experiencing since this pandemic began could be just the tip of the iceberg ...



Normally I agree with patent protections, but Covid is a different beast that has capability of bringing down the entire world, as more and more mutations occur. I 100% agree for the betterment of mankind Pfizer and Moderna need to not only release how they made the vaccine but assist other countries in designing factories for it, etc. mRNA needed to happen overnight 6 months ago and its only in like very very small percentage of 1st world countries still.

imo Covid is going to be something that destroys us, we keep shrugging it off as just sniffles or asymptomatic in most people, lots of old dying sure, but keep in mind even if some miracle happened - 100% of USA vaccinated with mRNA, and lets say the following year that 100% all got their boosters, it still wouldn't matter unless the whole world stops plane travel, ship travel, etc. Covid is going to bounce around other countries that are not vaccinated for years to come, and eventually there is going to be a mutation again and again, until its the perfect combo, and guess what, those 100% vaccinated are going to get complacent... its human nature to become complacent. no masks... felt safe for two years... and BOOM the new mutation sneaks in at an airport just like the Indian variant snuck into the UK in 2021 even with all of those measure in place to prevent such a thing... it still found a way.

so... yeah I think things will go back to normal, at least for UK and USA and a few others for... a solid 2 years... depending how many take their boosters, but once complacency sets in, its back to the races and this time with a super beefed up strain.

I hope I am wrong. but the hubris of humans... who knows.


----------



## HTC (May 29, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> *Normally I agree with patent protections, but Covid is a different beast that has capability of bringing down the entire world, as more and more mutations occur. I 100% agree for the betterment of mankind Pfizer and Moderna need to not only release how they made the vaccine but assist other countries in designing factories for it, etc. mRNA needed to happen overnight 6 months ago and its only in like very very small percentage of 1st world countries still.*
> 
> imo Covid is going to be something that destroys us, we keep shrugging it off as just sniffles or asymptomatic in most people, lots of old dying sure, but keep in mind even if some miracle happened - 100% of USA vaccinated with mRNA, and lets say the following year that 100% all got their boosters, it still wouldn't matter unless the whole world stops plane travel, ship travel, etc. Covid is going to bounce around other countries that are not vaccinated for years to come, and eventually there is going to be a mutation again and again, until its the perfect combo, and guess what, those 100% vaccinated are going to get complacent... its human nature to become complacent. no masks... felt safe for two years... and BOOM the new mutation sneaks in at an airport just like the Indian variant snuck into the UK in 2021 even with all of those measure in place to prevent such a thing... it still found a way.
> 
> ...



Agreed: this damn virus is far too dangerous NOT to do it.

We MAY get lucky and the worst mutations we get are the current identified mutations but ... if we're unlucky and a new "nastier" mutation surfaces, MORE resistant to CURRENT vaccines ...


----------



## Tatty_One (May 29, 2021)

Well mutations can go either way, apparently the Spanish Flu Pandemic ended because the last known mutation was less transmissible and had milder effects, as for variants that go in the other direction, take a look at the time it takes in various countries for them to become the dominant strain, it takes time, the UK variant was first detected in August apparently, it became the dominant strain in the UK in January (for which most of that time we had high infection rates in any case) and Pfizer (for example) are saying that if one of those more deadly variants appeared and it's current vaccine's efficacy was too low it could produce a new one in 6 - 8 weeks, still not great I agree but where we have a head start now as opposed to several months ago is we have the manufacturing and supply chains to get them out faster than we were able at the end of last year.

I am rarely optimistic but I remain hopeful that it may not get to that stage, but I agree that greater access and the ability to mass manufacturer existing vaccines globally would likely help.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 29, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Well mutations can go either way, apparently the Spanish Flu Pandemic ended because the last known mutation was less transmissible and had milder effects, as for variants that go in the other direction, take a look at the time it takes in various countries for them to become the dominant strain, it takes time, the UK variant was first detected in August apparently, it became the dominant strain in the UK in January (for which most of that time we had high infection rates in any case) and Pfizer (for example) are saying that if one of those more deadly variants appeared and it's current vaccine's efficacy was too low it could produce a new one in 6 - 8 weeks, still not great I agree but where we have a head start now as opposed to several months ago is we have the manufacturing and supply chains to get them out faster than we were able at the end of last year.
> 
> I am rarely optimistic but I remain hopeful that it may not get to that stage, but I agree that greater access and the ability to mass manufacturer existing vaccines globally would likely help.



Agreed, but can't keep printing trillions out of thin air and raising the debt ceiling to pay for it either. If fiat fails, Covid will be least likely cause of death in any nation state.


----------



## 64K (May 29, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Agreed, but can't keep printing trillions out of thin air and raising the debt ceiling to pay for it either. If fiat fails, Covid will be least likely cause of death in any nation state.



If fiat fails then it's game over. Businesses are set up to sell their products and services in fiat and pay their employees in fiat. Crypto doesn't seem like an alternative because if the cable stations shut down because of the ensuing chaos then how can people access their crypto to buy and sell?


----------



## HTC (May 29, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Well mutations can go either way, apparently the Spanish Flu Pandemic ended because the last known mutation was less transmissible and had milder effects, as for variants that go in the other direction, *take a look at the time it takes in various countries for them to become the dominant strain, it takes time, the UK variant was first detected in August apparently, it became the dominant strain in the UK in January (for which most of that time we had high infection rates in any case)* and Pfizer (for example) are saying that if one of those more deadly variants appeared and it's current vaccine's efficacy was too low it could produce a new one in 6 - 8 weeks, still not great I agree but where we have a head start now as opposed to several months ago is we have the manufacturing and supply chains to get them out faster than we were able at the end of last year.
> 
> I am rarely optimistic but I remain hopeful that it may not get to that stage, but I agree that greater access and the ability to mass manufacturer existing vaccines globally would likely help.



And what is the R value of that strain: 3?

- What if we get unlucky and a new strain appears that has a R value of ... say ... 6+?
- And what about a new strain that spreads as easily as the current ones BUT sends to the hospitals A LOT MORE PEOPLE?
- What about a new strain that resists the current vaccines by ... say ... 50%+?

While only the 1st example would see the spread of the strain @ record levels, all 3 are BAD SCENARIOS.

The worst we could possibly get is a more severe strain, with a much higher R value AND more resistant to existing vaccines.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 29, 2021)

HTC said:


> And what is the R value of that strain: 3?
> 
> - What if we get unlucky and a new strain appears that has a R value of ... say ... 6+?
> - And what about a new strain that spreads as easily as the current ones BUT sends to the hospitals A LOT MORE PEOPLE?
> ...


I try not to do "what if's" as much as possible, it's like the blind leading the blind, but looking forward based on what we know today, R rates will become less important to a vaccinated population that it has done in the first year of this pandemic to an unvaccinated population, that in effect, with some differences is where the many influenza strains have led us, some of which, if in existence 100 years ago may have done similar damage to the Spanish Flu..................  yes of course there may be more severe variants down the road, I just try very hard not to worry about what next year may herald before I have worried enough about this one


----------



## Ahhzz (May 29, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> I think the UK variant is pretty much worldwide now, a news piece this morning on TV also said that it's likely the Indian variant is also, whilst our infection rates are low the Indian variant now accounts for 75% of all new cases, probably because it is even more transmissible than the UK variant.


I thought the whole point of both the Pfizer and Moderna was that they targeted the part of the virus that made it highly contagious, so that if it mutated that particular trait, it would be less contagious...


----------



## Tatty_One (May 30, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> I thought the whole point of both the Pfizer and Moderna was that they targeted the part of the virus that made it highly contagious, so that if it mutated that particular trait, it would be less contagious...


Yep and Pfizer has if my memory serves me correctly 88% efficacy against the Indian variant, that still means that 12% of people who have been vaccinated but come into contact with this variant may transmit and/or get a little sick from it (they state it cuts transmission by 65-70% I think) but you make a good point, one of the reasons I am not overly concerned about it in the UK (and maybe I should be) is because the majority of people that have tested positive with it along with the few that have been hospitalised from it are either younger and not received a vaccination yet or are middle aged and only have had one jab or in the case of hospital admissions, chosen not to take the vaccine, either based on medical advice or personal preference. I have not seen any deaths reported thus far specifically for the Indian variant however that is based on news/media reporting only, if that turns out to be the case going forward then theoretically at least we are on our way to a level of herd immunity (I believe).

Almost 3/4 of the adult population in the UK have now received at least one dose of a vaccine, almost 40% have received both.


----------



## 64K (May 30, 2021)

I believe the vaccines are working pretty well in my county (population 368,000). Only 17 new cases yesterday. Down from around 600 daily new cases in January. Hospitalizations are way down. ICU patients are way down. Deaths are way down.


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (May 30, 2021)

Anyone know of good links to pass an anti vaxer , possibly astra z based.

Not me I'm double dosed btw.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 30, 2021)

TheoneandonlyMrK said:


> Anyone know of good links to pass an anti vaxer , possibly astra z based.
> 
> Not me I'm double dosed btw.



Find a priest to say it is their holy duty to take the vaccine and end the pandemic.

Anti-vaxers, at least the ones I know, aren't one for Logos, but instead are ones for Ethos. Its not about making a logical argument, its about a trusted person making the argument. If they trust priests, find a priest to say the right thing. If they trust Republicans, find a Republican to say the right thing. Etc. etc.

Here is one highly influential priest saying the right thing: https://www.voanews.com/europe/pope-francis-calls-access-care-and-vaccines-all . Of course, Catholics are not looked kindly upon by some folk. If your anti-vaxer is a Southern Baptist, you'll want a southern-baptist source, such as https://www.christiansandthevaccine.com/episodes/intro

If their source of Ethos is Republicans (which seems to be Trump / Fox News right now, unfortunately), that's an easy solution.









						Trump urges all Americans to get COVID vaccine: 'It's a safe vaccine' and it 'works'
					

Former President Trump urged all Americans to get the coronavirus vaccine in a 'Fox News Primetime' exclusive interview on Tuesday, touting its efficacy as both 'a safe vaccine' and "something that works."




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (May 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Find a priest to say it is their holy duty to take the vaccine and end the pandemic.
> 
> Anti-vaxers, at least the ones I know, aren't one for Logos, but instead are ones for Ethos. Its not about making a logical argument, its about a trusted person making the argument. If they trust priests, find a priest to say the right thing. If they trust Republicans, find a Republican to say the right thing. Etc. etc.
> 
> ...


So I think trying to convince an anti vaxer atheist with that might not work out but thanks anyway.


----------



## Tatty_One (May 30, 2021)

TheoneandonlyMrK said:


> So I think trying to convince an anti vaxer atheist with that might not work out but thanks anyway.


So staying away from Government advice/guidance and mainstream media, dunno if either of these will help..........

British Heart Foundation

AstraZeneca Covid vaccine: safety, side effects and everything you need to know | BHF

Royal Pharmaceutical Society (this covers all current vaccines, scroll down for AZ)

Everything you need to know about COVID-19 vaccines - The Pharmaceutical Journal (pharmaceutical-journal.com)


----------



## Space Lynx (May 30, 2021)

TheoneandonlyMrK said:


> Anyone know of good links to pass an anti vaxer , possibly astra z based.
> 
> Not me I'm double dosed btw.



There is some data that can help an anti-vaxxer, when they state mRNA is new in humans, the context is slightly false, it's been used in humans in a handful of studies in actual humans listed here but some of these studies go back a decade, with actual mRNA injected in humans... and it seems that nothing bad ever came of it. This is probably the strongest argument there is against:  there is a fallacy in the argument scientists make, when they state, "historically, vaccines show their symptoms within 3 months max, so due to this we know the mRNA vaccines are safe" yet they leave out those past vaccines were not using mRNA messenger as its delivery method, therefore, making their premise false initially. You can't compare apples and oranges so carelessly imo. However, the studies below show even some studies of 150+ healthy people getting mRNA injection in 2017 and no long term issues. So that is countered by that single study imo.









						mRNA Vaccine Era—Mechanisms, Drug Platform and Clinical Prospection
					

Messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)-based drugs, notably mRNA vaccines, have been widely proven as a promising treatment strategy in immune therapeutics. The extraordinary advantages associated with mRNA vaccines, including their high efficacy, a relatively ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				












						mRNA Vaccine Era—Mechanisms, Drug Platform and Clinical Prospection
					

Messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)-based drugs, notably mRNA vaccines, have been widely proven as a promising treatment strategy in immune therapeutics. The extraordinary advantages associated with mRNA vaccines, including their high efficacy, a relatively ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




keep in mind this study was funded by China. which has said mRNA is not ready yet for humans. China does have a mRNA of their own in late stage trials, so I'm not sure what to think of that...









						Late-stage trial of Chinese mRNA Covid-19 vaccine to begin in Mexico
					

It is the first shot developed in China using the same technology as the Pfizer and Moderna jabs.




					www.scmp.com
				




Looks like China will be allowing use of the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine soon, possibly as early as July. So I guess they aren't to afraid of it anymore.









						Pfizer CEO opposes U.S. call to waive Covid vaccine patents, cites manufacturing and safety issues
					

Pfizer's CEO said the waiver proposal "will unleash a scramble for the critical inputs we require in order to make a safe and effective vaccine.'




					www.cnbc.com
				




I understand Pfizer's argument here about the supply chain, however, I had no idea Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had 280 ingredients/components in it... sourced from 19 countries... that seems... well not as pure as I had originally thought. I thought the ingredients were like a total of 5-7 things when I initially googled "moderna and pfizer ingredient comparison"... so this surprises me... and scares me a bit there was not more transparency to begin with. That being said, it makes their argument more sound... however, had I known I was trusting 19 countries supply chains and not just one... it might have scared me even more, so perhaps don't share this with your friends LOL


----------



## Vayra86 (May 30, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> What FB does has no bearing on anything Covid related. They're just happy to allow more nonsense chatter. The only difference now is a more 'measured' approach is being taken that isn't quite as openly hostile.
> 
> There's a lot going on here that transcends simple politics but effectively, a conspiracy was previously 'supported' by someone in power. That led to rampant and practically racist behaviour. It also meant it was difficult to rationally discuss the problem of origin without being seen as 'allied' to the conspiracy. A lot of people stepped away from that discussion. Now, a more 'reasoned' approach is being taken, and scientists are more relaxed about getting involved.



It does transcend simple politics. It speaks directly of our ability to look ourselves in the eye and draw the conclusion we should have drawn ages ago: We Are Doing It Wrong.

We need limits to population growth, limits to waste, and limits to how we treat animals. Even IF this was a lab accident, which I'll say right now is utter BS anyway, like most things that were shouted the past year; it does not remove the underlying problem of why viruses exist and keep popping up, and why the frequency of outbreaks is increasing the  last few decades.

We're too many and the world is correcting it, as it has been trying to with every past outbreak. They all happen in high density, low quality environments where hygiene is low. Who got hit by Covid the hardest? Exactly. Long term solution: less people, better quality of life. Its really thats simple and every day we avoid that reality, is time wasted and lives lost or lowered in quality. Everywhere. And we're in luck too, because the world is so filthy rich and advanced by now, we can easily make people work less, reproduce less, and still live good lives. A vast portion of work we do, movements we make, is complete and utter waste with no purpose.

Its always nice to consider 'why' do people say what they say, especially a dude like Biden or POTUS in general. They do it, because they want to move thought and action to what they're talking about. Not the thing that SHOULD be talked about. That alone is enough of a motivator. The reality is that he's stalling to take the actions that truly need to be taken.


Conspiracies... I think they're a great way for every single human to flee to, again, to avoid the harsh truth they don't want to see or talk about. That applies to every conspiracy ever, really. None of them are true. The reality is that there are systems so deeply intertwined and a few people who understand it on a level the rest does not, taking advantage. Humans being human. Not understanding does not make reality a conspiracy.


----------



## Space Lynx (May 30, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> It does transcend simple politics. It speaks directly of our ability to look ourselves in the eye and draw the conclusion we should have drawn ages ago: We Are Doing It Wrong.
> 
> We need limits to population growth, limits to waste, and limits to how we treat animals. Even IF this was a lab accident, which I'll say right now is utter BS anyway, like most things that were shouted the past year; it does not remove the underlying problem of why viruses exist and keep popping up, and why the frequency of outbreaks is increasing the  last few decades.
> 
> ...



It's very true, you can even look at deer populations. When a deer population becomes too large, disease typically breaks out naturally to reduce the numbers. It's natures mechanism for balance. I imagine the same thing is happening and will continue to happen with humans, as humans continue to alter the world around them more and more. Also, climate change goes hand in hand in this, the alterations typically, but not always coincide, but mostly they go hand in hand from what I can see.

I still would like to know what 19 countries are sourcing the 280 ingredients in the Pfizer vaccine though.  It's not nearly as simple as I had thought.









						Pfizer CEO opposes U.S. call to waive Covid vaccine patents, cites manufacturing and safety issues
					

Pfizer's CEO said the waiver proposal "will unleash a scramble for the critical inputs we require in order to make a safe and effective vaccine.'




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## HTC (May 31, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *Sunday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 22822 active cases --- 307 more --- 44 more per day
- 808813 recovered --- 3121 more --- 446 more per day
- 17023 fatalities --- 6 more --- *less than 1 more per day*
- 848658 confirmed infected --- 3434 more --- 491 more per day

- 11746267 tests taken --- 314903 more --- 52484 more per day but was last updated May 29th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 5442582 vaccinated --- 500618 more --- last updated Sunday but that corresponds to 3666216 1st doses + 1776366 2nd doses
- 271 hospitalized --- 51 more --- 7 more per day
- 54 in ICU --- *4 less --- 1 less per day*

The main report wasn't published on 2 days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities dropped VS last week and we also had *THREE more days with zero fatalities*: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 9th consecutive week. New cases increased again and the R number increased to 1.07 on average. Roughly 36.5% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 17.6% have received both doses.

The R number continues to climb (latest figure is from May 27th) and we had a more worrisome increase in hospitalized: something no doubt Saturday's Champions League Final celebrations will make worse next month ...


----------



## Space Lynx (May 31, 2021)

HTC said:


> Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.
> 
> View attachment 202244View attachment 202245View attachment 202246View attachment 202247View attachment 202248View attachment 202249View attachment 202250View attachment 202251
> 
> ...



I have never understood exactly what the recovered number means. Because the vast vast majority of people who are asymptomatic or just get the sniffles, probably don't bother to take a second covid test, and if they do and it is with a different company, is still reported, and then that active infection is then moved to a recovered section? Like the logistics of that seems like a nightmare... no way it works properly...


----------



## ThrashZone (May 31, 2021)

Hi,
Not near enough testing time has pasted not even the fda has approved any of them past emergency use.
Only J&J's vaccine was created like past vaccines and still no real time testing it.


----------



## HTC (May 31, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I have never understood exactly what the recovered number means. Because the vast vast majority of people who are asymptomatic or just get the sniffles, probably don't bother to take a second covid test, and if they do and it is with a different company, is still reported, and then that active infection is then moved to a recovered section? Like the logistics of that seems like a nightmare... no way it works properly...



Recovered are those that WERE infected but aren't anymore, having recovered from the virus. Obviously, this number doesn't include MANY of those that HAD the virus but were never tested due to being asymptomatic, so our ACTUAL recovered number is likely MUCH HIGHER.

Whenever someone is found to be infected, his / her close contacts are tested, regardless of symptoms, to see if any of them also have it, and their contacts should they have it ... and so on: it's A LOT EASIER to do this with low case numbers and it gets an ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE with high numbers, by which time i have serious doubts it works @ all ...


Back when i had symptoms last year, i called our health number and they ordered me a PCR test, which turned out negative: i was still ordered to stay @ home for 2 weeks just in case it turned out to be a false negative. Since then i had 2 more PCR tests @ work last year, also negative, and had two of those rapid tests this year, also negative: i'm expected to take a 3rd rapid test @ work this Monday. Our instructions are, if these rapid tests either come back inconclusive or with a positive result, we are then scheduled a PCR test to "get to the bottom of it".


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## 64K (May 31, 2021)

I was just reading an article that said that even with people that took the first shot and the booster the protection might not last very long. A third shot might be necessary later on.

Also it stated that 39% of the people in my country (USA) are fully vaccinated right now.



			Moderna and Pfizer are already developing COVID-19 vaccine boosters. Do we need a third shot?


----------



## Space Lynx (May 31, 2021)

HTC said:


> Recovered are those that WERE infected but aren't anymore, having recovered from the virus. Obviously, this number doesn't include MANY of those that HAD the virus but were never tested due to being asymptomatic, so our ACTUAL recovered number is likely MUCH HIGHER.
> 
> Whenever someone is found to be infected, his / her close contacts are tested, regardless of symptoms, to see if any of them also have it, and their contacts should they have it ... and so on: it's A LOT EASIER to do this with low case numbers and it gets an ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE with high numbers, by which time i have serious doubts it works @ all ...
> 
> ...



That makes sense, thanks for clarifying!  

I know in November when I tested positive for Covid, they did do a follow up, the part of my life is a huge huge brain fog... so I really barely remember it, but now that I think about it you are correct, the state did follow up with me to see if I had recovered. It was optional though, I did not have to participate. So that right there leaves some huge... discrepancy regarding the numbers if they are accurate, etc. (for the record I did participate) lol no reason not to imo.

what made me mad the most, is the idiots who gave my Dad covid at work, were redneck boys and didn't really care. so I did all of that work with the surveys, phone calls, WHILE SICK... why the origin of the people who got me sick were just sniffle lucky types and didn't have to do any of that work with the state... really really makes me mad... I do everything right and I get punished, and the idiots who gave it to me my Dad who eventually gave it to me... didn't have to do any work or surveys... really annoys crap out of me.


----------



## HTC (May 31, 2021)

64K said:


> I was just reading an article that said that even with people that took the first shot and the booster the protection might not last very long. A third shot might be necessary later on.
> 
> Also it stated that 39% of the people in my country (USA) are fully vaccinated right now.
> 
> ...



While vaccine booster MAY prove important, i think it's MORE important to ensure the WORLD is vaccinated: @ least 70% of it, so that we may finally FINALLY resume normalcy.

Failure to do this MAY result in further mutations and, the more mutations there are, the better the chance ONE of them "gets around" the current vaccines and sends us back to square one.


----------



## Xzibit (May 31, 2021)

64K said:


> I was just reading an article that said that even with people that took the first shot and the booster the protection might not last very long. A third shot might be necessary later on.
> 
> Also it stated that 39% of the people in my country (USA) are fully vaccinated right now.
> 
> ...



All 3 of the major vax makers in the USA (Pfizer,Moderna and J&J) have said either boosters or re-vax with-in 12months like a Flu shot.


----------



## ThrashZone (May 31, 2021)

HTC said:


> While vaccine booster MAY prove important, i think it's MORE important to ensure the WORLD is vaccinated: @ least 70% of it, so that we may finally FINALLY resume normalcy.
> 
> Failure to do this MAY result in further mutations and, the more mutations there are, the better the chance ONE of them "gets around" the current vaccines and sends us back to square one.


Hi,
What this has really shown is global migration needs to change and these tests and vaccines are needed for all that do travel.


----------



## 95Viper (May 31, 2021)

Stay on Topic, please.
Thank You


----------



## Tatty_One (May 31, 2021)

64K said:


> I was just reading an article that said that even with people that took the first shot and the booster the protection might not last very long. A third shot might be necessary later on.
> 
> Also it stated that 39% of the people in my country (USA) are fully vaccinated right now.
> 
> ...


We had a massive 2nd jab effort over the weekend and have now got half the population done for both jabs, the downside to this effort I suppose is a little less 1st jabs are taking place.  Rightly or wrongly the UK has already announced that a Pfizer booster jab will be offered to all 50+ aged people (those that had their current jabs the earliest) during the Autumn and these boosters will include tweaks for known variants.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 31, 2021)

Lots of odd things going on here that makes no sense.








						Taipei announces only certain COVID patients under 55 can stay at home | Taiwan News | 2021-05-31 21:01:00
					

Only asymptomatic COVID patients under 55 without chronic conditions may remain home | 2021-05-31 21:01:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						COVID patient in New Taipei attacks nurses with knife | Taiwan News | 2021-05-31 20:56:00
					

Man went berserk after request to leave hospital denied | 2021-05-31 20:56:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						China says Taiwan's 'scheme to gain independence through vaccines won't succeed' | Taiwan News | 2021-05-31 11:42:00
					

Foreign ministry spokesperson also claims channels for Taiwan to receive vaccines from China are 'not blocked' | 2021-05-31 11:42:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




A mere 347 new cases today, but another 15 deaths.








						Taiwan reports 274 local COVID cases, 15 deaths, 73 backlog cases | Taiwan News | 2021-06-01 13:27:49
					

Taiwan reports 15 COVID deaths, bringing total death toll to 124 | 2021-06-01 13:27:49




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 31, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> A mere 347 new cases today, but another 15 deaths.



Its strange to me that they don't report COVID19 hospitalizations.

Deaths are the most reliable statistic, but they're a month late. By the time the death-rate is going up, the virus was already spreading for a month. #Cases are fast moving, but unreliable. If you don't have enough tests, then you literally can't count the number of people effectively. (And even here in my State, our %Positive went to 30%+ sometimes and our casecount went out-of-whack with reality. So I know for a fact that those case-counts can become unreliable during surges)

Hospitalizations are the happy medium between the two. As long as you have additional hospital beds, the hospitalization count is accurate. Hospitalizations aren't quite as delayed as death counts: they're only delayed by maybe 2 weeks or so (dependent on the culture of course).

You need "many eyes" into the problem, because every statistic has its own flaw. You can't just trust one statistic. If %Positive is low (5% or so), then rely on Case#. If %Positive goes above 5%, switch to hospitalizations. This strategy has been "back-tested" using death# (a month later, when the deaths show up, treat the death# as the ground truth).

Yeah, Death# still has some bits of controversy over. But its the closest thing to reality that tracks the pandemic.


----------



## TheLostSwede (May 31, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Its strange to me that they don't report COVID19 hospitalizations.
> 
> Deaths are the most reliable statistic, but they're a month late. By the time the death-rate is going up, the virus was already spreading for a month. #Cases are fast moving, but unreliable. If you don't have enough tests, then you literally can't count the number of people effectively. (And even here in my State, our %Positive went to 30%+ sometimes and our casecount went out-of-whack with reality. So I know for a fact that those case-counts can become unreliable during surges)
> 
> ...


You can try the local CDC.
Reads mostly like the article I linked to.








						CECC confirms 274 indigenous cases and 4 imported cases and reports 73 retroactively added cases
					






					www.cdc.gov.tw
				




Looks like it should've been 351, as I missed the four "imported" cases...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 31, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> You can try the local CDC.
> Reads mostly like the article I linked to.
> 
> 
> ...








						Taiwan National Infectious Disease Statistics System
					






					nidss.cdc.gov.tw
				




Yeah, I'm not finding hospitalizations. Hmmm, it seems like there's a general understanding that things are getting worse in Taiwan though. Accuracy isn't too important in the general sense: it doesn't really matter if its spreading +/- 30% faster, its clearly a problem at this point. But better statistics can lead to more targeted lockdowns (ex: which regions are projected to run out of hospital space. Where to set up temporary field hospitals. Etc. etc.)


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 3, 2021)

585 new cases and 17 dead.
Looks like Taiwan is getting some AZ vaccine from Japan soon though.








						Taiwan reports 364 local COVID cases, 17 deaths, 219 backlog cases | Taiwan News | 2021-06-03 20:43:00
					

Taiwan reports 17 COVID deaths, bringing death toll to 166 | 2021-06-03 20:43:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						Japan to send 1.2 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine to Taiwan tomorrow | Taiwan News | 2021-06-03 19:04:00
					

NHK reports that Japan will ship 1.2 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine to Taiwan on June 4 | 2021-06-03 19:04:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						Taiwan reports 25% increase in COVID cases among adults ages 20-39 | Taiwan News | 2021-06-03 18:01:00
					

Chen warns young people to avoid family gatherings during Dragon Boat Festival | 2021-06-03 18:01:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						German health expert blames politics for Taiwan's failure to acquire BioNTech vaccines | Taiwan News | 2021-06-04 16:18:00
					

Karl Lauterbach says politics only reason Taiwan unable to finalize BioNTech vaccine deal | 2021-06-04 16:18:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 4, 2021)

474 new cases breaking 10k in Taiwan.
Plus 21 deaths, which I think is the highest so far.








						Taiwan reports 339 local COVID cases, 21 deaths, 133 backlog cases | Taiwan News | 2021-06-05 00:00:00
					

21 COVID deaths ties record for most in one day | 2021-06-05 00:00:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




Doesn't really mean much, but it just shows that people aren't really following the rules.








						Taiwan's local COVID cases soar by nearly 10,000% in 1 month | Taiwan News | 2021-06-04 21:48:00
					

Country surpasses 10,000 total COVID cases, skyrocketing by over 800% | 2021-06-04 21:48:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 4, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Doesn't really mean much, but it just shows that people aren't really following the rules.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's a shame to see this happening. I'm all too familiar with the curve -we had a pretty steep one this year. 

Really does appear vaccination is the only way out. Virus is too easily spread to be negated by hygiene and social distancing (the latter of which is impossible long term).


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 4, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> It's a shame to see this happening. I'm all too familiar with the curve -we had a pretty steep one this year.
> 
> Really does appear vaccination is the only way out. Virus is too easily spread to be negated by hygiene and social distancing (the latter of which is impossible long term).


Well, 1.2 million doses of AZ arrived from Japan today, but that gets the total so far to about 2 million doses in total, for 23million+ people...
It's going to take a while, that's for sure.


----------



## xkm1948 (Jun 4, 2021)

AZ vaccine is just as good as the rest of the WHO approved vaccine. Death and ICU prevention is the most important job of vaccines. As long as it gave human body a fighting chance without medical equipment intervention, our immune system can usually sweep out the virons.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 4, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> AZ vaccine is just as good as the rest of the WHO approved vaccine. Death and ICU prevention is the most important job of vaccines. As long as it gave human body a fighting chance without medical equipment intervention, our immune system can usually sweep out the virons.



still, Pfizer and Moderna are able to scale production so much, it's insane how well mRNA can be scaled. I think the world needs a little more time, but we can expect excess doses for the entire world by end of 2022 imo.  I think they said 4 billion doses next year? combine that with the other ones that don't scale as fast and you are looking at a supply for entire world by end of 2022. or maybe I did the math wrong. not sure.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 5, 2021)

511 new cases and 38 deaths. That's a massive increase in deaths.








						Taiwan reports 476 local COVID cases, record 37 deaths, 35 backlog cases | Taiwan News | 2021-06-05 23:09:00
					

Number of deaths reaches single-day record of 37 | 2021-06-05 23:09:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 5, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> 511 new cases and 38 deaths. That's a massive increase in deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's a weird time to be alive. I honestly think around February/March next year USA will be back to peak 3-5k daily deaths from covid. Vaccine won't last forever, everyone will get complacent (already are, no one wear masks at all where I live for months now...  I'm actually only one who still wears mask in grocery store in my town)... lol

Booster shots... won't be able to convince enough people to do that until you have an event of high daily deaths that forces another lockdown, once that happens then people will be like oh ok booster time...

Humans doing human things. /shrug  Sucks, but yeah Covid is here to stay forever imo.  As I have said before, even if 100% of like 15+ countries got vaccinated, it wouldn't be enough long term. Vaccines wear off, plane travel never stops, it bounces around... short term its going to be great sure, but eventually... as UK is already showing us with the Indian variant, the sneaky little variant always finds a way in...


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 5, 2021)

I think this is a bit early to ask but does anyone know if there is intention that the seasonal flu vaccine in this fall will be combined with a covid booster shot? I vaguely recall they say a covid booster won’t be required until at least another 12 months.

My second Moderna is this coming Tuesday. A bit nervous because I was sick for 2 days with the first shot. @lynx29    good thing where I live everyone still wears masks, but don’t businesses where you live require them?


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 5, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I think this is a bit early to ask but does anyone know if there is intention that the seasonal flu vaccine in this fall will be combined with a covid booster shot? I vaguely recall they say a covid booster won’t be required until at least another 12 months.
> 
> My second Moderna is this coming Tuesday. A bit nervous because I was sick for 2 days with the first shot. @lynx29    good thing where I live everyone still wears masks, but don’t businesses where you live require them?



nope, my state signed law that no business is required to make masks mandatory anymore... awhile ago actually. 

things are 100% back to normal where I live for a couple months now. seems that 60% must be the magic number of vaccinated needed, cause hospitals are not overwhelmed, and no deaths since March for my particular county.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> nope, my state signed law that no business is required to make masks mandatory anymore... awhile ago actually.
> 
> things are 100% back to normal where I live for a couple months now. seems that 60% must be the magic number of vaccinated needed, cause hospitals are not overwhelmed, and no deaths since March for my particular county.



I think 70% to 80% vaccinated would be the cutoff point In general. Remember that this disease dies to the sun and humidity, so it's safer in the summer.

It's mostly normal at my office now. But masks are on at most commercial areas. Not mandatory, but most people seem to feel safer with masks right now, so no need to rush things imo.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I think 70% to 80% vaccinated would be the cutoff point In general. Remember that this disease dies to the sun and humidity, so it's safer in the summer.
> 
> It's mostly normal at my office now. But masks are on at most commercial areas. Not mandatory, but most people seem to feel safer with masks right now, so no need to rush things imo.



I think USA should send all vaccines to Taiwan and other hotspots right now. then make it available again in August/September for USA. Those that wanted it got it, those waiting to see long term side effects will wait until Fall, etc. Makes sense to me. and like you said summer time... the virus just doesn't seem to flourish very well.


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I think USA should send all vaccines to Taiwan and other hotspots right now. then make it available again in August/September for USA. Those that wanted it got it, those waiting to see long term side effects will wait until Fall, etc. Makes sense to me. and like you said summer time... the virus just doesn't seem to flourish very well.


Biden is already signing orders to do just that (75% actually, but still):









						Statement by President Joe Biden on Global Vaccine Distribution | The White House
					

As the United States continues our efforts to get every eligible American vaccinated and fight COVID-19 here at home, we also recognize that ending this




					www.whitehouse.gov


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 5, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Biden is already signing orders to do just that (75% actually, but still):
> 
> 
> 
> ...



that's not what I mean, Biden is only talking about 80 million over a long stretch of time. I mean yank all the doses right now - distribute a few hundred million over night to hotspots.  its already been proven from the UK studies you get more antibodies if you delay the second shot of pfizer to a few months instead of a few weeks. so second shotters should wait anyway.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> nope, my state signed law that no business is required to make masks mandatory anymore... awhile ago actually.
> 
> things are 100% back to normal where I live for a couple months now. seems that 60% must be the magic number of vaccinated needed, cause hospitals are not overwhelmed, and no deaths since March for my particular county.


We are at 51% w/ 38% full vax but the original strain hasn't been dominate in months. We have 8 strains and the most prevalent now is a SoAm variant.  The variant studies are slowly coming along but the pools for those are even smaller then the original emergency phases. Less then 200 to 12k on some studies.

Vax locations have already started downsizing as well.


----------



## HTC (Jun 6, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> 511 new cases and 38 deaths. That's a massive increase in deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Quite a lot of deaths for "so few" daily cases. What's the hospitals "situation": are they overcrowded or very near capacity? Death numbers tend to increase *substantially* if hospital resources are *stretched too thin*.

When Portugal was @ it's worst, from a hospitals resources perspective, we had 288 daily deaths *average* in a week: back then, he had almost all hospitals in the country with over 95% capacity filled, and that's *AFTER* re-arranging *multiple times* in order to get more beds for COVID patients (both regular and ICU), to the point that human resources were the biggest problem.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 6, 2021)

It's getting worse, 36 deaths today, but only 343 new cases. Clearly there isn't enough testing being done.








						Taiwan reports 335 local COVID cases, 36 deaths, 8 backlog cases | Taiwan News | 2021-06-07 00:01:00
					

Of the 335 local cases, 189 were males and 146 were females | 2021-06-07 00:01:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




@HTC well, if you read some of the previous links I posted, everyone over 50 is being put into isolation at special facilities, which clearly doesn't seem to help.
Some of the big hospitals are over capacity and they've been moving patients out of the greater Taipei area to hospitals in other parts of the country.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 6, 2021)

This is handy.








						Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered
					

All doses, including boosters, are counted individually.




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> that's not what I mean, Biden is only talking about 80 million over a long stretch of time. I mean yank all the doses right now -* distribute a few hundred million over night to hotspot*s.  its already been proven from the UK studies you get more antibodies if you delay the second shot of pfizer to a few months instead of a few weeks. so second shotters should wait anyway.


Where is he going to get all these doses?  It's not like they are lying around in some cold storage facility or is it, and are they physically his to give in the first place.  As for the timespan between 1st and 2nd doses, the data that I have seen suggests the optimum period between doses is 8 - 12 weeks and thereafter the benefits are diminished, I had my 2nd exactly 10 weeks after the first, our government was very concerned about going beyond 12 weeks, maybe that was precautionary though.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 6, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Where is he going to get all these doses?  It's not like they are lying around in some cold storage facility or is it, and are they physically his to give in the first place.  As for the timespan between 1st and 2nd doses, the data that I have seen suggests the optimum period between doses is 8 - 12 weeks and thereafter the benefits are diminished, I had my 2nd exactly 10 weeks after the first, our government was very concerned about going beyond 12 weeks, maybe that was precautionary though.


Are you sure about the 8-12 weeks? Everyone in my family has gotten the 2nd dose in 4-5 weeks. My second shot is this coming Tuesday and my first shot was exactly one month ago.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 6, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Are you sure about the 8-12 weeks? Everyone in my family has gotten the 2nd dose in 4-5 weeks. My second shot is this coming Tuesday and my first shot was exactly one month ago.


That was certainly the recommended dosage periods (3-4 weeks) recommended by the manufacturers when submitting their phase 3 trial findings to Governments for approval, the UK decided to lengthen the time between doses to offer more of the population some protection quicker, Pfizer said at that point that it had little data on the implications of that, since then Pfizer and AZ (I can't speak for Moderna) have done some lengthy research and have indeed found that the efficacy for both increases during those timescales but in reality we are only talking 2 or 3% (I think), many would say that it's better to have 90 - 95% protection within 4 weeks than an extra few % in 8 - 12 weeks and they quite possibly would be right.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> that's not what I mean, Biden is only talking about 80 million over a long stretch of time. I mean yank all the doses right now - distribute a few hundred million over night to hotspots.  its already been proven from the UK studies you get more antibodies if you delay the second shot of pfizer to a few months instead of a few weeks. so second shotters should wait anyway.



The children are only starting to get vaccinated right now. The US certainly has an abundance of vaccine but we shouldn't give it all away.

USA must still prepare for fall reopening of schools. It's months away, but it takes some time to distribute vaccines.

The 12+ age group only recently got access to the vaccine, and soon younger than 12 will be done testing (a reduced dose due to their smaller bodies).

That being said, the USA will clearly be a leader in manufacturing vaccines. I'm not sure what the donation process should look like, and I'm kind of leaning towards giving the vaccine to WHO (or some other 3rd party) and for them to focus on how to distribute it. There is a limited number of vaccines and distributing them fairly to other countries will be difficult.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 6, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The children are only starting to get vaccinated right now. The US certainly has an abundance of vaccine but we shouldn't give it all away.
> 
> USA must still prepare for fall reopening of schools. It's months away, but it takes some time to distribute vaccines.
> 
> ...



it would be nice to see the actual number of first shots being given day to day... I have a suspicion its near zero. every clinic I check even for young people online, has every single slot open...



Tatty_One said:


> Where is he going to get all these doses?  It's not like they are lying around in some cold storage facility or is it, and are they physically his to give in the first place.  As for the timespan between 1st and 2nd doses, the data that I have seen suggests the optimum period between doses is 8 - 12 weeks and thereafter the benefits are diminished, I had my 2nd exactly 10 weeks after the first, our government was very concerned about going beyond 12 weeks, maybe that was precautionary though.



thousands and thousands of clinics that have every single slot appointment open...


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 6, 2021)

But will all of those clinics be able to store the vaccines in those cold conditions meaning do they all have industrial style freezers, I only questioned it because you mentioned in your original post hundreds of millions overnight, even if there was a freezer in all of them and all those freezers were full it would take a huge logistical operation to bring them together from the 4 corners of the US in the appropriate deep freeze containers to ship them out, for me, even if such numbers do actually physically exist in the US it appears it would be easier to order direct with the manufacturer (so in effect give up some future US orders) who can then presumably organise with the WHO or whoever to transport and distribute globally....... but even that would take time.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 6, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> But will all of those clinics be able to store the vaccines in those cold conditions meaning do they all have industrial style freezers, I only questioned it because you mentioned in your original post hundreds of millions overnight, even if there was a freezer in all of them and all those freezers were full it would take a huge logistical operation to bring them together from the 4 corners of the US in the appropriate deep freeze containers to ship them out, for me, even if such numbers do actually physically exist in the US it appears it would be easier to order direct with the manufacturer (so in effect give up some future US orders) who can then presumably organise with the WHO or whoever to transport and distribute globally.



you must not have heard the news.  Pfizer can now be stored same as Moderna for 30 days at much easier temps. FDA approved it a few weeks ago.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 6, 2021)

Yep but it's still -15 to -50 for Moderna, as I said, it has to be simpler to get them manufactured and sent straight to continents directly through a 3rd party handler such as the WHO rather than physically move any existing physical stock from thousands of locations throughout the US.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 6, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Yep but it's still -15 to -50 for Moderna, as I said, it has to be simpler to get them manufactured and sent straight to continents directly through a 3rd party handler such as the WHO rather than physically move any existing physical stock from thousands of locations throughout the US.


Additional Information. Based on a review of recent data submitted by Pfizer Inc. today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is authorizing undiluted, thawed Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine vials to be stored in the refrigerator at 2°C to 8°C (35°F to 46°F) for up to 1 month.May 19, 2021


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 6, 2021)

I got that data for Moderna as you mentioned them and for the 30 day+ requirements as it is quite possible it would take more than that time I believe with your suggestion.

Storage & Handling | Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine (EUA) (modernatx.com)

As I mentioned, much easier to get orders direct to continents from manufacturers, shifting hundreds of millions from 3.8 million square miles (USA) is likely to be the biggest logistical nightmare of the 21st century so far 

Having said all of that, purely based on my perceived practicalities, I am in absolute agreement that more has to be done, and done now to get the world, or at least at first the most vulnerable people in the world vaccinated, even optimistically thinking that could be achieved by the end of next year means that even those countries fully vaccinated well before then would remain at a level of risk.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 7, 2021)

214 new cases and 26 dead. Most likely lower numbers due to it having been weekend and not everything having been reported.








						Taiwan reports 211 local COVID cases, 26 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-06-07 21:53:00
					

Taiwan announces 26 deaths, bringing death toll to 286 | 2021-06-07 21:53:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 7, 2021)

Apparently, my state has reached 70% Age 18+ 1st-dose sometime last week. (Last Monday, we were still around 68%. I wasn't checking every day)

1st doses have slowed down dramatically, but still having 8000+ 1st doses/day here in my state.

EDIT: The 70.8% figure is only applicable to the 18+ crowd. There are ~6-million residents in my state, so the 3-million fully vaccinated correlates to ~50% of our population (including children, who largely cannot take the vaccine yet because the 12-and-under tests are not yet complete)


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 7, 2021)

Seems the US in general are doing really well, here in the UK we are on 41 million first doses (78% adult population) of which 28.5 million (55% of adult population) have had both doses, we have not yet decided if under 16's will receive the vaccine.


----------



## HTC (Jun 7, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *Sunday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 23715 active cases --- 893 more --- 128 more per day
- 811897 recovered --- 3084 more --- 441 more per day
- 17034 fatalities --- 11 more --- 2 per day
- 852646 confirmed infected --- 3988 more --- 570 more per day

- 11966284 tests taken --- 220017 more --- 36670 more per day but was last updated June 3rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 6006145 vaccinated --- 563563 more --- last updated Sunday but that corresponds to 3958681 1st doses + 2047464 2nd doses
- 265 hospitalized --- *6 less --- 1 less per day*
- 52 in ICU --- *2 less --- less than 1 per day*

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities increased VS last week despite *TWO more days with zero fatalities*: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 10th consecutive week. New cases increased again and the R number increased to 1.10 on average. Roughly 39.5% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 20% have received both doses.

The R number continues to climb (latest figure is from June 4th) and we also crossed the 6M doses given mark (total).


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 7, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Seems the US in general are doing really well, here in the UK we are on 41 million first doses (78% adult population) of which 28.5 million (55% of adult population) have had both doses, we have not yet decided if under 16's will receive the vaccine.




I think it is a good thing most young people are being given the Pfizer jabs in UK.  Seems to me the AZ is a little weaker, and leaves the economy open for shut down if it was 100% only one used.  BioNTech and Pfizer saved the day imo, Moderna a close second.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I think it is a good thing most young people are being given the Pfizer jabs in UK.  Seems to me the AZ is a little weaker, and leaves the economy open for shut down if it was 100% only one used.  BioNTech and Pfizer saved the day imo, Moderna a close second.


Well the AZ has not yet been approved for use for under 16's yet in the UK, the question is if the government will offer it, it's a difficult one both clinically and morally if only because some experts are saying the risk of taking the vaccine may be greater than the risk from Covid for that age range (12 - 15), it will be interesting to see which way we go.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 7, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Well the AZ has not yet been approved for use for under 16's yet in the UK, the question is if the government will offer it, it's a difficult one both clinically and morally if only because some experts are saying the risk of taking the vaccine may be greater than the risk from Covid for that age range (12 - 15), it will be interesting to see which way we go.



Seychelles has already proved which way we all should go, and that is mRNA if you want to keep your economies open.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 7, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Seems the US in general are doing really well, here in the UK we are on 41 million first doses (78% adult population) of which 28.5 million (55% of adult population) have had both doses, we have not yet decided if under 16's will receive the vaccine.



USA is doing well in general, but my state is very far ahead of the curve. Average USA is 63% 1st dose Age 18+ vaccinated (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)


----------



## hat (Jun 7, 2021)

Well,I wouldn't have a problem getting a booster shot eventually when needed. The vaccine wasn't terrible, I'd do it again to do my part in keeping myself and everyone else safe.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 7, 2021)

hat said:


> Well,I wouldn't have a problem getting a booster shot eventually when needed. The vaccine wasn't terrible, I'd do it again to do my part in keeping myself and everyone else safe.




I think a lot of people will hold off on booster until we get a new wave/lockdown.  I hope I am wrong, but complacency seems to be human nature.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Seychelles has already proved which way we all should go, and that is mRNA if you want to keep your economies open.


Well maybe yes, however an Island with a population of under 100,000 is not really comparable with the US or UK, whilst the idea may well be good, I would guess the challenges might be greater for us.


----------



## xkm1948 (Jun 7, 2021)

mRNA by itself is not impressive. The sequence design of mRNA is, literally programming at genetic level to maximize host cell expression. A crappy coded mRNA vaccine still wont do squat.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 8, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> mRNA by itself is not impressive. The sequence design of mRNA is, literally programming at genetic level to maximize host cell expression. A crappy coded mRNA vaccine still wont do squat.



The double-helix structure of DNA was only discovered in 1953. And only in the 1990s did we begin to have fast enough computers to start exploring the genetic code. Sure, RNA is different from DNA, but IIRC, these mRNA vaccines are created from DNA, so mastery of the DNA code was necessary for mass production of these mRNA vaccines.


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 8, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The double-helix structure of DNA was only discovered in 1953. And only in the 1990s did we begin to have fast enough computers to start exploring the genetic code. Sure, RNA is different from DNA, but IIRC, these mRNA vaccines are created from DNA, so mastery of the DNA code was necessary for mass production of these mRNA vaccines.


RNA is literally just DNA without a redundant half (single-helix) used for error correction.

I mean there are a few small differences besides that, but they are very close in design.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 8, 2021)

"Only" 219 new cases, but 22 deaths, suggesting that testing isn't really happening at a great rate.








						Taiwan reports 219 local COVID cases, 22 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-06-08 22:16:00
					

Taiwan announces 22 deaths, bringing death toll to 308 | 2021-06-08 22:16:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## ThrashZone (Jun 8, 2021)

Hi,
Texas legislators unanimously banned covid vaccination passports plus 14 other states have done similar, medical history is private once again !!!
Now no business/.... can't ask if someone has been vaccinated that isn't wearing a mask and can not be refused entry and services.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 8, 2021)

Medical history isn't revealed by wearing a face mask. But whatever, those who want to do so can, those who want to be vaccinated can get it. 

Frankly, I think the US (CDC) guidance is awesome, insofar as those who have been vaccinated have no requirement under safety to wear a mask. 

When I get my second Pfizer I don't see any rational need to wear a mask but I'll be asked to do so.


----------



## Caring1 (Jun 8, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Texas legislators unanimously banned covid vaccination passports plus 14 other states have done similar, medical history is private once again !!!
> Now no business/.... can't ask if someone has been vaccinated that isn't wearing a mask and can not be refused entry and services.


A person's medical history was never at risk of being exposed, only if a person had been vaccinated against Covid.
Private businesses still retain the right to serve who they want as anybody can be refused service or entry at the whim of the business with no reason given.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 8, 2021)

Uurrggh...
Here comes the xenophobia of Taiwan creeping. They have the ability to test "migrant workers" i.e. blue collar workers or factory workers that already work in Taiwan under near slave like contracts, but clearly not to test the local population. I bet these 202 people and all other "migrant workers" will be put in a separate pile, to make the overall case numbers look better. I really hate this side of Taiwan.








						10,000 migrant workers to receive COVID tests at 3 industrial parks in Taiwan’s Kaohsiung | Taiwan News | 2021-06-08 18:45:00
					

Testing push follows cluster outbreaks among migrant workers at companies in Miaoli County | 2021-06-08 18:45:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						202 foreign workers test positive for COVID at 4 tech firms in Taiwan's Miaoli | Taiwan News | 2021-06-08 18:49:00
					

Miaoli tech company COVID cluster infection rises to 249 cases | 2021-06-08 18:49:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Ahhzz (Jun 8, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Uurrggh...
> Here comes the xenophobia of Taiwan creeping. They have the ability to test "migrant workers" i.e. blue collar workers or factory workers that already work in Taiwan under near slave like contracts, but clearly not to test the local population. I bet these 202 people and all other "migrant workers" will be put in a separate pile, to make the overall case numbers look better. I really hate this side of Taiwan.
> 
> 
> ...


To be fair, it's not like Taiwan has a sparkling history of not being invaded from time to time...


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 8, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> A person's medical history was never at risk of being exposed, only if a person had been vaccinated against Covid.
> Private businesses still retain the right to serve who they want as anybody can be refused service or entry at the whim of the business with no reason given.


Very true, well for the UK, I have my vaccination record as a standalone PDF on my mobile phone barcoded etc, I got it from my medical records but anyone who legally asks to see it will only view my PDF and photo identity.  That way as it's quite likely that international travel will require proof of vaccination at some point it's easy.


----------



## 64K (Jun 8, 2021)

imo anyone who travels by plane should have to show proof of vaccination. You have so many people crammed up close together in planes and yes you can make masks mandatory but people remove them so that they can eat if the flight is long or even something as simple as drinking some water. If you have the Covid virus and you sneeze while your mask is off then the droplets from the sneeze can travel 27 feet (8 meters)









						How far does a sneeze travel?
					

A sneeze travels about 8 metres depending on conditions including temperature and humidity.




					www.newscientist.com
				




Being vaccinated isn't going to give people 100% immunity to still catch the Covid virus and pass it on to people that aren't vaccinated but it cuts the odds way down.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 9, 2021)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/06/08/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-UELFDVWCXZGPLNRVTMZW2IE4BE
		




> Millions of unused doses of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine are set to expire this month, as federal and state health officials scramble to get as many shots into arms as possible despite a drop in demand.
> 
> ...
> 
> Doses have already been disposed of in Oklahoma, where demand for the vaccine has dropped to a worrying level, Deputy Commissioner of Health Keith Reed told Oklahoma City outlet KOCO News. The daily average of doses administered fell by 15 percent in recent weeks, according to data compiled by The Washington Post.



Those damn anti-vaxxers ain't getting their shots, and now the vaccines are beginning to expire. I was feeling quite pessimistic about the anti-vax crowd, I didn't expect the repercussions to come so swiftly.

Frankly, this drop in demand is likely permanent. USA ought to send more vaccines overseas, where people who actually appreciate the risks of COVID19. We didn't reach herd immunity as a country, so lets start sending the vaccine elsewhere so those other countries have a chance at herd immunity themselves.

EDIT: I should at that my state still has thousands of vaccinations/day, and we're continuing to grow past the ~70% 1st dose threshold of (assumed) herd immunity, at least in the 18+ age group. I expect that we as a state will reach over 70% 2nd dose. Lets hope that ~70% is enough to protect at least my neighbors / fellow citizens in my state, even if it looks like we as a country will fail.


----------



## hat (Jun 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/06/08/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-UELFDVWCXZGPLNRVTMZW2IE4BE
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don't think it's wise to draw conclusions by looking at the J&J vaccine only. It was recalled at one point because it had some issues, so trust in that particular vaccine is way down. People are more likely to get Pfizer or Moderna.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 9, 2021)

274 cases and 25 dead today. Although, as I expected, the "migrant workers" that were discovered after yesterday's announcement, are not part of those cases...








						Taiwan reports 274 local COVID cases, 25 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-06-09 20:26:00
					

Taiwan's local COVID cases increase by 25% from previous day | 2021-06-09 20:26:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




Also...








						COVID fatality rate in Taiwan climbs to 2.8% | Taiwan News | 2021-06-09 15:34:00
					

Country working to introduce new treatment to bring down death rates | 2021-06-09 15:34:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				












						Taiwan human rights group condemns COVID stay-at-home order for migrant workers | Taiwan News | 2021-06-09 13:36:00
					

Miaoli County considers all migrant workers as potential infection sources: TAHR | 2021-06-09 13:36:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 9, 2021)

US has bought and will donate 500 million doses of Pfizer's vaccine worldwide
					

The US has purchased and will donate 500 million doses of Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine worldwide as it seeks to be a key player in getting other nations vaccinated, a person familiar with the move told CNN.




					www.cnn.com
				




USA has bought 500 million doses of Pfizer vaccine and distributing them worldwide... very nice... lets hope Taiwan gets a few million of those at least!  @TheLostSwede


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 10, 2021)

64K said:


> Being vaccinated isn't going to give people 100% immunity to still catch the Covid virus and pass it on to people that aren't vaccinated but it cuts the odds way down.



In "mostly" healthy people. A reminder.



> There is little data about vaccines’ effectiveness in people with underlying health problems, especially immune impairment, because they weren’t included in the vaccines’ initial trials.



That's why they are the occasional local news of a full vax person dying with possible underlying conditions and they will continue to be. Especially as the various variants become more wide spread.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> In "mostly" healthy people. A reminder.
> 
> 
> 
> That's why they are the occasional local news of a full vax person dying with possible underlying conditions and they will continue to be. Especially as the various variants become more wide spread.




yep, the India variant makes pfizer and moderna weep.  one shot of pfizer and moderna is only 33% effective against the India variant vs it used to be almost 82% with the first shot against original variant...  the virus is finding a way...  I think we are seeing a stretch of peace for about 10-14 months, and we will see new powerful variants that spread easier than even the UK and India variant shut down the world again.

I don't think the mRNA makers will be able to counter with boosters fast enough. 6 trillion dollars usa wasted on covid spending... you can only print endless money for so long...

I do hope I am wrong. I got my Pfizer shot yesterday.

edit:  sauce https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ta-variant-of-covid-is-on-the-rise-in-the-u-s


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> yep, the India variant makes pfizer and moderna weep.  one shot of pfizer and moderna is only 33% effective against the India variant vs it used to be almost 82% with the first shot against original variant...  the virus is finding a way...  I think we are seeing a stretch of peace for about 10-14 months, and we will see new powerful variants that spread easier than even the UK and India variant shut down the world again.
> 
> I don't think the mRNA makers will be able to counter with boosters fast enough. 6 trillion dollars usa wasted on covid spending... you can only print endless money for so long...
> 
> ...



Yeah but remember, those vaccines are two dose vaccines. After two doses, they're still highly effective (88%).


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 10, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Yeah but remember, those vaccines are two dose vaccines. After two doses, they're still highly effective (88%).



I know, I just meant the trend is worrying. Won't be the last time it mutates, and it seems odd to me that the UK variant spread easier, and the India variant more easily than the UK variant... it just is troubling to me. Hopefully it comes to nothing.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 10, 2021)

They are rare but expect the numbers to keep climbing slowly.

In one County they reported 458 "Breakthrough Cases". 1 death with underlying conditions to B117 UK Variant.
Another county reported 939 "Breakthrough Cases" 12 deaths 4 of the 12 had underlying conditions.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> They are rare but expect the numbers to keep climbing slowly.
> 
> In one County they reported 458 "Breakthrough Cases". 1 death with underlying conditions to B117 UK Variant.
> Another county reported 939 "Breakthrough Cases" 12 deaths 4 of the 12 had underlying conditions.



I really dislike the use of "underlying conditions" that could mean so many things with covid. and like half the population has high blood pressure or diabetes or both. its not a big deal really, I just feel that term can be misleading, as if an underlying condition is somehow rare in this context.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I know, I just meant the trend is worrying. Won't be the last time it mutates, and it seems odd to me that the UK variant spread easier, and the India variant more easily than the UK variant... it just is troubling to me. Hopefully it comes to nothing.



Its just survival of the fittest. The variant that spreads more easily will become the dominant strain, all else being equal.

So how do we win? Pretty simple really. We stop it from spreading. If we get vaccinated and the virus slows down, then it won't have the chance to mutate in the first place.


----------



## 64K (Jun 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Its just survival of the fittest. The variant that spreads more easily will become the dominant strain, all else being equal.
> 
> So how do we win? Pretty simple really. We stop it from spreading. If we get vaccinated and the virus slows down, then it won't have the chance to mutate in the first place.



That's the problem. 25% of Americans say they are not going to get vaccinated for one reason or another.


----------



## R0H1T (Jun 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Its just survival of the fittest. The variant that spreads more easily will become the dominant strain, all else being equal.


That's not necessarily true though is it? A strain which can combat vaccines or other drugs used for treatment might become the dominant strain, even if it spreads less than other variants. Did the Spanish Flu meet the same fate? Who knows, I haven't really found a concrete answer as to why it kind of stopped in its tracks. Did the entire world really reach herd immunity or what?








						Spanish Flu
					

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and




					www.history.com


----------



## 64K (Jun 10, 2021)

R0H1T said:


> That's not necessarily true though is it? A strain which can combat vaccines or other drugs used for treatment might become the dominant strain, even if it spreads less than other variants. Did the Spanish Flu meet the same fate? Who knows, I haven't really found a concrete answer as to why it kind of stopped in its tracks. Did the entire world really reach herd immunity or what?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I read somewhere that the Spanish Flu mutated into a strain that was less deadly and less contagious. Mutations don't always have to get more deadly and contagious. Sometimes they go the other way.


----------



## R0H1T (Jun 10, 2021)

64K said:


> Mutations don't always have to get more deadly and contagious. Sometimes they go the other way.


Yes that's what I'm thinking as well, remember variants or mutant strains aren't just fighting vaccines or medicines they're also competing among themselves.

Also the mutations aren't in their proverbial hands. It isn't something they can stop or control at any given point.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 10, 2021)

64K said:


> That's the problem. 25% of Americans say they are not going to get vaccinated for one reason or another.



We're at 50% vaccinated as a country, not enough for herd immunity, but enough to exponentially cut down on the number of cases by 50% *per generation*. That's a sizable slowdown in COVID19 cases, no matter how you look at it.

The reason why countries like India are getting new mutations, is because they're largely unvaccinated and the virus is spreading. Even if we reach 50% (far less than any herd immunity estimate I've seen), that's still a HUGE reduction in COVID19 spread, and the virus's mutation speed will drop severely (far more than 50% slower. Its 50% slower in the 1st generation, then 75% slower in the 2nd, 87.5% slower in the 3rd... etc. etc. etc.)

R0 = 3 is 66% vaccination for herd immunity. Even if those 25% people don't take it, we're gonna be awfully close to herd immunity when its all over. Even if we're not quite at herd immunity, we're high enough that I can comfortably say that the USA *probably* won't be the source of the next mutation. The virus is just spreading elsewhere in the world, and our focus needs to shift towards the worldwide problem (vaccinating other populations before the disease mutates again).


----------



## claes (Jun 10, 2021)

R0H1T said:


> That's not necessarily true though is it? A strain which can combat vaccines or other drugs used for treatment might become the dominant strain, even if it spreads less than other variants. Did the Spanish Flu meet the same fate? Who knows, I haven't really found a concrete answer as to why it kind of stopped in its tracks. Did the entire world really reach herd immunity or what?
> 
> 
> 
> ...





64K said:


> I read somewhere that the Spanish Flu mutated into a strain that was less deadly and less contagious. Mutations don't always have to get more deadly and contagious. Sometimes they go the other way.





R0H1T said:


> Yes that's what I'm thinking as well, remember variants or mutant strains aren't just fighting vaccines or medicines they're also competing among themselves.
> 
> Also the mutations aren't in their proverbial hands. It isn't something they can stop or control at any given point.


IIRC this is why we have the seasonal flu (please correct me if I’m wrong!)? Variants that kill everyone died out because we isolated those infected and treated them seriously while variants that were mostly innocuous lived because they weren’t treated.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 10, 2021)

claes said:


> IIRC this is why we have the seasonal flu (please correct me if I’m wrong!)? Variants that kill everyone died out because we isolated those infected and treated them seriously while variants that were mostly innocuous lived because they weren’t treated.


This is true AFAIK.

The seasonal flu jabs were created in response to evolving variants. With finite resources, attention is focused on the more worrying variants.

I've also seen a viral epidemiologist saying that once we're over Covid (as such) and normality resumes, there'll be a killer flu season.

With Covid the main focus, the flu viruses are off the radar. No new vaccines to match the mutations. Also, as a human population, our Covid precautions have nearly eliminated seasonal flu. But it also means our antibodies are 'out of date'. Next flu season will be a double whammy. No natural antibodies, no up to date vaccines.

And the longer people are selfish, ignore sensible advice, and don't take the vaccines, the longer this shit show goes on.


----------



## R0H1T (Jun 10, 2021)

Not sure that's the case, you're talking about the Spanish Flu right? The incident from 100+ years back?


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Jun 10, 2021)

TheoneandonlyMrK said:


> So I think trying to convince an anti vaxer atheist with that might not work out but thanks anyway.











						Why is the Nuremberg Code being used to oppose Covid-19 vaccines? - Full Fact
					

Social media users are incorrectly citing the medical ethics code to argue against Covid-19 vaccination.




					fullfact.org
				




Great start to what I was looking for with in page links to further pages full of great facts and info, wrote in a nonbiased, honest, and informative facts and info.

Yes it was a search initially aimed at a specific aspect a friend has been doing my  head in with(several very shouty arguments have occurred, I'm vaxed, but about to die to him as is his whole family(/everyone tut), etc), but it is a great jump-off point to further knowledge


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 10, 2021)

Again very low case numbers and relatively high deaths at 263 and 28.








						Taiwan reports 263 local COVID cases, 28 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-06-11 02:01:00
					

Taiwan announces 28 deaths, bringing death toll to 361 | 2021-06-11 02:01:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




Then we have a mix of scary shit, about time shit and hopefully good shit.









						Video shows migrant workers in Taiwan's Miaoli herded into packs | Taiwan News | 2021-06-10 18:18:00
					

Foreign migrant workers forced to march to dorms in groups due to stay-at-home orders | 2021-06-10 18:18:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						New Taipei mayor calls for more COVID-19 testing | Taiwan News | 2021-06-10 20:59:00
					

Rapid screening stations in city have tested nearly 50,000 people, with positive rate of 1.9% | 2021-06-10 20:59:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						Phase II results of Taiwan's COVID-19 vaccine meet safety, efficacy thresholds | Taiwan News | 2021-06-10 21:30:00
					

Developer says no severe adverse reactions seen in trial so far | 2021-06-10 21:30:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 10, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Again very low case numbers and relatively high deaths at 263 and 28.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If it makes you feel any better, migrant workers inside of meat-packing plants were a major source of COVID19 spread in the USA. The meatpacking workers (who are almost certainly foreigners) were encouraged to work in cramped, unsafe conditions, and the statistics basically show that meat-packing plants were the biggest source of COVID19 spread in a number of locations.

I sorta feel a bit better in that other countries are running into the same problems we faced. So... maybe you'll feel better that we dealt with the same shit, though in slightly different ways.


----------



## xkm1948 (Jun 10, 2021)

Pfizer and likely many other vaccine offers decent protection against the new .B1.617 viral strain.

Get your vaccine shots. Protect yourself, protect your loved ones. 

This is from Nature publication:








						BNT162b2-elicited neutralization of B.1.617 and other SARS-CoV-2 variants - Nature
					

Samples of serum from individuals immunized with the BNT162b2 vaccine show neutralization activity against engineered SARS-CoV-2s bearing the spike mutations from B.1.617 and other variants.




					www.nature.com


----------



## xkm1948 (Jun 10, 2021)

Also another great read from Nature talking about the uncertainty of long term implications from COVID19



			https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01511-z
		



The 4 questions:
*How many people get long COVID and who is most at risk?*​*What is the underlying biology of long COVID?*​*What is the relationship between long COVID and other post-infection syndromes? *​*What can be done to help people with long COVID?*​


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 10, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Also another great read from Nature talking about the uncertainty of long term implications from COVID19
> 
> 
> 
> https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01511-z



great timing on this btw. I can report to all of you that about 12 hours after my first shot of Pfizer, I noticed something odd. I wasn't tired. I only slept 4 hours the first night after my first pfizer jab. I felt great. my arm was sore sure. next day I felt even better, I only slept about 8 hours solid last night... usually I sleep way more and am lethargic. I seriously think I had a long covid and Pfizer cured me. I can't prove this in any way. but now i am a full 48 hours after the first shot and I just feel fantastic. I feel a clarity and awareness I have not felt in ages. 

only weird symptom I had was yesterday, like once every 3 hours my right knee would have a super weird feeling/pang I don't know how to describe it. it came and went really fast each time, but no issues at all today. 

I have read that most people get super sleepy after the first shot... and it gave me a crap ton of energy. i was literally reading all day, enjoying movies, going for walks last two days.  mild fever, but again it only lasted like ten minutes and it broke.  

its honestly the oddest experience I have ever experienced.  I described it to a friend as that scene in Lord of the Rings, where Gandalf visits Rohan and the King can't think clearly because of his corrupt adviser, and Gandalf restores the king to clarity... bit dramatic, but that was sort of what my experience was like. LOL


----------



## neatfeatguy (Jun 10, 2021)

hat said:


> I don't think it's wise to draw conclusions by looking at the J&J vaccine only. It was recalled at one point because it had some issues, so trust in that particular vaccine is way down. People are more likely to get Pfizer or Moderna.



Folks can read up on vaccination deaths/complications here: https://www.openvaers.com/covid-data

Use the data how you want. Just figured I'd toss it out there for folks to see.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 10, 2021)

neatfeatguy said:


> Folks can read up on vaccination deaths/complications here: https://www.openvaers.com/covid-data
> 
> Use the data how you want. Just figured I'd toss it out there for folks to see.



can't anyone and their mom post here though? or does it actually have to be verified by a hospital staff to be posted on that site? if it is the former, then I am skeptical as crap on those numbers, especially considering how much misinformation gets thrown around these days on purpose.  if its the latter, well all things considered when near 2.25 billion doses of the vaccine have been given worldwide so far.


----------



## neatfeatguy (Jun 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> can't anyone and their mom post here though? or does it actually have to be verified by a hospital staff to be posted on that site? if it is the former, then I am skeptical as crap on those numbers, especially considering how much misinformation gets thrown around these days on purpose.  if its the latter, well all things considered when near 2.25 billion doses of the vaccine have been given worldwide so far.



Read the FAQ, it'll explain things to you such as:

What is VAERS?
Established in 1990, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is a national early warning system to detect possible safety problems in U.S.-licensed vaccines. VAERS is co-managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). VAERS accepts and analyzes reports of adverse events (possible side effects) after a person has received a vaccination. Anyone can report an adverse event to VAERS. Healthcare professionals are required to report certain adverse events and vaccine manufacturers are required to report all adverse events that come to their attention.
VAERS is a passive reporting system, meaning it relies on individuals to send in reports of their experiences to CDC and FDA. VAERS is not designed to determine if a vaccine caused a health problem, but is especially useful for detecting unusual or unexpected patterns of adverse event reporting that might indicate a possible safety problem with a vaccine. This way, VAERS can provide CDC and FDA with valuable information that additional work and evaluation is necessary to further assess a possible safety concern.

or

Where can I report an adverse event?
"The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) accepts all reports, including reports of vaccination errors. Guidance on reporting vaccination errors is available if you have additional questions."
"Knowingly filing a false VAERS report is a violation of Federal law (18 U.S. Code § 1001) punishable by fine and imprisonment."
Report an Adverse Event Here.


Like I said, I was just providing the link. You can read up on things there and take it how you want.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 10, 2021)

neatfeatguy said:


> Folks can read up on vaccination deaths/complications here: https://www.openvaers.com/covid-data
> 
> Use the data how you want. Just figured I'd toss it out there for folks to see.



From the source (I've illustrated the massive fucking problem with such a resource).



> VAERS limitations​
> Because VAERS allows anyone to report possible side effects from vaccines, *it includes reports that might or might not be caused by vaccines*. VAERS is *not* designed to identify cause and effect. VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. *Some reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable*. Most reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means they are subject to biases. Data from VAERS reports should always be interpreted with these limitations in mind.



I work with the public. In our field there is a well-known metric and that is that 9 happy customers will tell you nothing but one unhappy customer will shout to the hills about how shit you are. VAERS is an unverifiable resource and given the massive anti-vax community, it simply cannot be trusted. Any American could go on that resource and state how it affected them and given the nature of compliance and resistance, I'd wager more people would use that resource to weaponise an anti-vax sentiment.

No, sorry. That CDC reource--by it's own acknowledgement--is open to abuse.

EDIT: prime example - I could go on that resource and say it caused my baby to grow horns. It's BS.

From Vaers:

*Limitations of VAERS:*


*It is generally not possible to find out from VAERS data if a vaccine caused the adverse event  * 
Reports submitted to VAERS often lack details and sometimes contains errors                                      
Serious adverse events are more likely to be reported than non-serious events                                   
Numbers of reports may increase in response to media attention and increased public awareness                                 
VAERS data cannot be used to determine rates of adverse events


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 10, 2021)

neatfeatguy said:


> Read the FAQ, it'll explain things to you such as:
> 
> What is VAERS?
> Established in 1990, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is a national early warning system to detect possible safety problems in U.S.-licensed vaccines. VAERS is co-managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). VAERS accepts and analyzes reports of adverse events (possible side effects) after a person has received a vaccination. Anyone can report an adverse event to VAERS. Healthcare professionals are required to report certain adverse events and vaccine manufacturers are required to report all adverse events that come to their attention.
> ...



yeah I remember a Doctor saying on the news one time he reported to VAERS that he turned into the Incredible Hulk after a vaccine once, and it stayed in system for long time and nothing ever came of it.  that system is useless unless every single issue is verified by a hospital staff or hospital visit history imo.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 10, 2021)

Edit 2: I guess I'm just bummed. America got us to the moon. Sent probes beyond our solar system. And accepts this level of unscientific, bias-unchecked level of reporting.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 10, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Edit 2: I guess I'm just bummed. America got us to the moon. Sent probes beyond our solar system. And accepts this level of unscientific, bias-unchecked level of reporting.



Agreed, it seems like a weird decision to allow such a system. A system like that could exist, it just would require a Doctor to sign in and sign off on it imo... or at least a hospital approved staff member, create some kind of certification that people have to get to be allowed to enter into that system for reporting, that way there is accountability and more polish overall.


----------



## neatfeatguy (Jun 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> yeah I remember a Doctor saying on the news one time he reported to VAERS that he turned into the Incredible Hulk after a vaccine once, and it stayed in system for long time and nothing ever came of it.  that system is useless unless every single issue is verified by a hospital staff or hospital visit history imo.



Just wanted to post for folks to see.

I was just told about by someone from work that just got their second shot and she was out for 4 days due to the side effects. She was hospitalized due to issues breathing and chest pain, she had diarrhea, sweats, headaches. Someone made mention of the site to her so she could report her issues about the vaccination. She was just telling others about it when she got back to work the other day. I'm not sure if she posted her experience or not, I didn't ask.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 10, 2021)

neatfeatguy said:


> Just wanted to post for folks to see.
> 
> I was just told about by someone from work that just got their second shot and she was out for 4 days due to the side effects. She was hospitalized due to issues breathing and chest pain, she had diarrhea, sweats, headaches. Someone made mention of the site to her so she could report her issues about the vaccination. She was just telling others about it when she got back to work the other day. I'm not sure if she posted her experience or not, I didn't ask.



I think we should go to the UK model of the second shot timing personally. UK has already proven that if you wait longer for the second shot, you actually get more antibodies... 3 weeks seems too early to me personally.

edit:  reason I mention that is because I think if we did wait longer on second shot we would have less issues like your friends there. just my guess though.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 11, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Edit 2: I guess I'm just bummed. America got us to the moon. Sent probes beyond our solar system. And accepts this level of unscientific, bias-unchecked level of reporting.



Wait until you find out what makes up the majority of the post vax data besides VAERS

Spoiler alert: Its a smartphone app. *V-Safe*.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 11, 2021)

@xkm1948 @dragontamer5788

I know you two read about covid a lot. If you ever come across new articles talking about delaying second shot and efficacy/antibody rates please let me know/post here.  I'm considering delaying my second shot to week 5 or 6, instead of getting it in week 3. I personally feel there is enough data already showing that is fine, but just want to keep eye out for anything else. I do wish other countries would compare data per capita, for example, how many cases of bells palsy, myocardia, etc is the UK folks getting? they all had to wait for like 9-12 weeks for second shot to my knowledge, does the risk drop substantially per capita for side effects if you wait longer? the antibodies still seem to be there and even better.









						Delaying second Pfizer COVID-19 shot boosts immune response in over-80s, study finds
					

Extending the gap between doses of the Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine from three to 12 weeks significantly boosts the antibody response in elderly people,...




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> @xkm1948 @dragontamer5788
> 
> I know you two read about covid a lot. If you ever come across new articles talking about delaying second shot and efficacy/antibody rates please let me know/post here.  I'm considering delaying my second shot to week 5 or 6, instead of getting it in week 3. I personally feel there is enough data already showing that is fine, but just want to keep eye out for anything else. I do wish other countries would compare data per capita, for example, how many cases of bells palsy, myocardia, etc is the UK folks getting? they all had to wait for like 9-12 weeks for second shot to my knowledge, does the risk drop substantially per capita for side effects if you wait longer? the antibodies still seem to be there and even better.
> 
> ...


The first thing I think people who have the choice (in the UK the people don't) is to understand like all things, there are con's as well as pro's, for example with that extended period between vaccine's people are much more at risk of serious disease for longer initially, for example with 2 doses 3 weeks apart you would get high protection at the 5 week point, with 2 doses 12 weeks apart you get in most cases a slightly higher level of protection possibly for a little longer but it takes 14 weeks so some people may be vulnerable to serious disease for 7 weeks longer if that makes sense.

Trying to stay away from mainstream media who tend to just quote sources here is a couple to start with,

Although not just in older people as this piece explains further down.........................

Delaying second Pfizer vaccines to 12 weeks significantly increases antibody responses in older people, finds study (birmingham.ac.uk)

Maybe a more balanced but less detailed account

Delaying second dose of COVID-19 vaccines: Are there benefits? (medicalnewstoday.com)


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 11, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> The first thing I think people who have the choice (in the UK the people don't) is to understand like all things, there are con's as well as pro's, for example with that extended period between vaccine's people are much more at risk of serious disease for longer initially, for example with 2 doses 3 weeks apart you would get high protection at the 5 week point, with 2 doses 12 weeks apart you get in most cases a slightly higher level of protection possibly for a little longer but it takes 14 weeks so some people may be vulnerable to serious disease for 7 weeks longer if that makes sense.
> 
> Trying to stay away from mainstream media who tend to just quote sources here is a couple to start with,
> 
> ...



I just finished reading that bottom article, it is interesting. Also, I have to keep in mind these articles were written before the Indian variant, which I only have 33% protection against with only my one shot of Pfizer... BUT that study did not define if those people who only had 1 dose of Pfizer had previously been infected with Covid. My t-cells are still primed from when I had covid in November, so maybe I am actually already at shot 2 levels of antibodies (or will be in a couple weeks since I just got the shot tuesday)... hmm.  so many variables it hurts my head.

I'll probably just get it at 3 weeks and be done with it. I'm so friggin tired of worrying... but it would be nice if the above paragraph logic was correct... because if I could delay second shot for 2-3 months I would... cause at end of day all of us will be getting boosters probably around March. but if i can delay it, plus increase my antibodies and increase my longevity seems like a win win win (for people that previously had covid, and got shot 1)

or I just need to stop worrying and do it. but you know, these news articles don't inspire confidence for me. it was all over the news yesterday... myocardia is higher in young males than they thought it would be after the second shot of pfizer... this kind of crap really scares me to be honest. they keep saying its safe over and over and over... but then i read news articles like this just yesterday:  (its frustrating as hell, who do you trust?)









						CDC says heart inflammation cases were higher than expected in 16- to 24-year-olds after second Covid vaccine shot, but still rare
					

The number of cases of a heart inflammation condition in 16- to 24-year-olds was higher than expected after they received their second dose, the CDC said.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 11, 2021)

@lynx29  Interestingly, and in part covering a little of your post above, on our lunchtime news today it was talking about the Indian variant now being responsible for 90% of all infections and those infections are rising, our R rate is now in the 1.2 - 1.4 range, of all of these infections, 75% of them have not been vaccinated, 18% have had just one dose, 7% have had both doses but some of those 7% (it didn't say specifically how many) had caught the virus inside of the 2 week period of having the 2nd jab, that fact coupled with efficacy ratings appears a pretty accurate reflection of what we have been told regarding the vaccines.

So .............. It would appear that the UK may well move to get as many 2nd jabs done as quickly as possible forgoing the 12 week thing, so that probably confirms your thoughts about getting it ASP.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 11, 2021)

Yeah, in Glasgow it's been moved up. My 2nd jag is on the 8 week mark. 4 weeks early.


----------



## 64K (Jun 11, 2021)

I guess the Indian Variant hasn't made it's way to my county yet. The new cases of Covid-19 continue to plunge. During the height of the Pandemic there were well over 600 new cases every day from a population of 370,000. Yesterday there were only 5 new cases.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I just finished reading that bottom article, it is interesting. Also, I have to keep in mind these articles were written before the Indian variant, which I only have 33% protection against with only my one shot of Pfizer... BUT that study did not define if those people who only had 1 dose of Pfizer had previously been infected with Covid. My t-cells are still primed from when I had covid in November, so maybe I am actually already at shot 2 levels of antibodies (or will be in a couple weeks since I just got the shot tuesday)... hmm.  so many variables it hurts my head.
> 
> I'll probably just get it at 3 weeks and be done with it. I'm so friggin tired of worrying... but it would be nice if the above paragraph logic was correct... because if I could delay second shot for 2-3 months I would... cause at end of day all of us will be getting boosters probably around March. but if i can delay it, plus increase my antibodies and increase my longevity seems like a win win win (for people that previously had covid, and got shot 1)
> 
> ...



You have to remember these vaccines were developed under emergency use. The companies were granted immunity until after phase 4 is complete (2019-2024). The entire process has been expedited for emergency use due to covid-19 so we are essentially all Phase 3 & Phase 4 of this on going trial.

The reality is that even though drugs and vaccines have been pulled for less unless there is a catastrophic reasoning they will issue a guidance for what ever side-effect that pops up. CDC said they were not going to look at anything they classify as "mild" or below a while ago.  They also been looking at the heart Inflammation for a few months.

Those who suffer from side effects or death will have to wait for the emergency immunity to expire in 2024 if its not extended and take their chances with the process then.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 11, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> You have to remember these vaccines were developed under emergency use. The companies were granted immunity until after phase 4 is complete (2019-2024). The entire process has been expedited for emergency use due to covid-19 so we are essentially all Phase 3 & Phase 4 of this on going trial.
> 
> The reality is that even though drugs and vaccines have been pulled for less unless there is a catastrophic reasoning they will issue a guidance for what ever side-effect that pops up. CDC said they were not going to look at anything they classify as "mild" or below a while ago.  They also been looking at the heart Inflammation for a few months.
> 
> Those who suffer from side effects or death will have to wait for the emergency immunity to expire in 2024 if its not extended and take their chances with the process then.




I understand all of that, the problem is the media and peer pressure from celebs/scientists, etc doesn't advertise that way... they just say over and over its safe or they make fun of you for not getting it (I am referring to late night tv comedy hosts), etc.  This is why I was so hesitant to get it. Something is wrong with that imo.



Tatty_One said:


> @lynx29  Interestingly, and in part covering a little of your post above, on our lunchtime news today it was talking about the Indian variant now being responsible for 90% of all infections and those infections are rising, our R rate is now in the 1.2 - 1.4 range, of all of these infections, 75% of them have not been vaccinated, 18% have had just one dose, 7% have had both doses but some of those 7% (it didn't say specifically how many) had caught the virus inside of the 2 week period of having the 2nd jab, that fact coupled with efficacy ratings appears a pretty accurate reflection of what we have been told regarding the vaccines.
> 
> So .............. It would appear that the UK may well move to get as many 2nd jabs done as quickly as possible forgoing the 12 week thing, so that probably confirms your thoughts about getting it ASP.



 yeah I mean its already in my body at this point, so i might as well get the 2nd jab and be done with it on the 29th.  cheers


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 11, 2021)

64K said:


> I guess the Indian Variant hasn't made it's way to my county yet. The new cases of Covid-19 continue to plunge. During the height of the Pandemic there were well over 600 new cases every day from a population of 370,000. Yesterday there were only 5 new cases.


The Indian variant has been in the US for several weeks, it is around 50% more transmissible than the UK variant which was around 50% more transmissible than the original strain.  It apparently was in the UK for almost 2 months before it started to take off, mainly in the younger population who have either not had a vaccine yet or those that have only had the one jab.

Fauci warns that the Delta coronavirus variant, first found in India, could take over in the US if people don't get their shots (yahoo.com)

@Xzibit I hear what you are saying about the emergency use thing, however, Statins are the most prescribed drug worldwide apparently and in any given year their side effects can lead to up to 3% of the people taking them to die, so there must be a margin in terms of risk >>> reward in these things considering worldwide the most common cause of death in men is coronary heart disease (I believe).


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 11, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> @Xzibit I hear what you are saying about the emergency use thing, however, Statins are the most prescribed drug worldwide apparently and in any given year their side effects can lead to up to 3% of the people taking them to die, so there must be a margin in terms of risk >>> reward in these things considering worldwide the most common cause of death in men is coronary heart disease (I believe).



Blood thinners given to the older population to prevent stroke also cause death. It's a weighted risk. 'X' population is at 'Y' risk of some illness. Take this drug and you'll be at 5% risk of that same illness but 1% risk of dying from side effects. 

Looked at another way - I don't smoke because (apart from being stinky) it causes lung cancer and heart disease. But I can still get lung cancer or heart disease. Odds are lower but the risk is *always* there.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 11, 2021)

don't worry mates. if I get scared of my second jab on week 3, I'll just remind myself that covid almost killed me in november. and then i will remind myself the Indian variant defeats pfizer jab 1 at only 33% protection. those two things combined and i know i can trick my brain into getting jab 2 on time on week 3.

also, im just freakin sick of reading about it and worrying. so yep... to the moon with jab 2! whatever happens happens.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 11, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> @Xzibit I hear what you are saying about the emergency use thing, however, Statins are the most prescribed drug worldwide apparently and in any given year their side effects can lead to up to 3% of the people taking them to die, so there must be a margin in terms of risk >>> reward in these things considering worldwide the most common cause of death in men is coronary heart disease (I believe).



Its also why the risk need to related upon Rx. Ever wonder why you get a few pages or pamphlet with medication or have to sign off on one.  Risk have to be related to because the companies aren't exempt from liability from them. They can be subject to litigation or claims. The avg vaccines pay out was $350,00-$400,000.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 11, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Its also why the risk need to related upon Rx. Ever wonder why you get a few pages or pamphlet with medication or have to singing off on one.  Risk have to be related to because the companies aren't exempt from liability from them. They can be subject to litigation or claims. The avg vaccines pay out was $350,00-$400,000.



ya got to keep posting positive stuff here mate until june 29th. no more of this negative stuff. im a flight risk when it comes to jab 2.   LMAO


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 11, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Its also why the risk need to related upon Rx. Ever wonder why you get a few pages or pamphlet with medication or have to sign off on one.  Risk have to be related to because the companies aren't exempt from liability from them. They can be subject to litigation or claims. The avg vaccines pay out was $350,00-$400,000.


Yeah, to be fair I keep forgetting you have a completely different medical/pharmaceutical system to us over the pond.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> ya got to keep posting positive stuff here mate until june 29th. no more of this negative stuff. im a flight risk when it comes to jab 2.   LMAO


My bad

Let me just scratch this off
Why vaccines makers almost stopped making vaccines due to liability and how the government had to step in

We are still here so its all mostly positive. Still awaiting my superpowers to kick in though.



Tatty_One said:


> Yeah, to be fair I keep forgetting you have a completely different medical/pharmaceutical system to us over the pond.



Not familiar with UK system but I believe they have a similar one to ours at least it looks like pertaining to this.

*UK government grants Pfizer civil legal indemnity for COVID-19 vaccine*

There version of VAERS is The Yellow Card system


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 12, 2021)

.


Xzibit said:


> My bad
> 
> Let me just scratch this off
> Why vaccines makers almost stopped making vaccines due to liability and how the government had to step in
> ...




Yeah, but we use VAR if there's a yellow card so it might be okay.

(Football/soccer joke).


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 12, 2021)

25 deaths, 250 cases today,  28 deaths, 263 cases yesterday. 








						Taiwan reports 250 local COVID cases, 26 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-06-12 20:55:00
					

Total number of coronavirus cases 12,746, overall death toll 411 | 2021-06-12 20:55:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




Then there's this... 








						China’s Shanghai Fosun claims rights over BioNTech distribution in Taiwan | Taiwan News | 2021-06-12 20:25:00
					

Comments at shareholders' meeting could affect Terry Gou import bid | 2021-06-12 20:25:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						Assisting Taiwan with vaccines is no crime against world order: WSJ | Taiwan News | 2021-06-12 20:20:16
					

Editorial defends intellectual property protection for vaccines | 2021-06-12 20:20:16




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 13, 2021)

FDA tells Johnson & Johnson to toss 60M COVID-19 vaccine doses over contamination concerns... jesus... so glad I got Pfizer









						FDA: 60M J&J Vaccine Doses From Troubled Baltimore Plant Must Be Tossed
					

U.S. regulators are forcing Johnson & Johnson to throw out millions of doses of its single-shot COVID-19 vaccine produced at a troubled Baltimore factory after deeming them “not suitable for use.”




					www.nbcconnecticut.com


----------



## ThrashZone (Jun 13, 2021)

Hi,
Looks like businesses in Texas, banks/ gas stations/ grocery stores are complying with new order to not mandate mask use for entry and services
Maybe some of you missed my earlier posts content
Both sides of the isle voted it was not a good thing to have vaccine passports so it was not along one party line and only a couple voted against 



lynx29 said:


> FDA tells Johnson & Johnson to toss 60M COVID-19 vaccine doses over contamination concerns... jesus... so glad I got Pfizer
> 
> 
> 
> ...


All are pretty fragile storage wise


----------



## HTC (Jun 13, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 23715 active cases --- 1343 more --- 192 more per day
- 815342 recovered --- 3445 more --- 492 more per day
- 17047 fatalities --- 13 more --- 2 per day
- 855447 confirmed infected --- 4801 more --- 686 more per day

- 12307236 tests taken --- 340952 more --- 42619 more per day but was last updated June 11th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 6545036 vaccinated --- 538891 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 4308544 1st doses + 2236492 2nd doses
- 325 hospitalized --- 60 more --- 9 more per day
- 82 in ICU --- 30 more --- 4 more per day

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities increased slightly VS last week despite *one more day with zero fatalities*: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 11th consecutive week. New cases increased again but the R number decreased slightly to 1.08 on average. Roughly 42% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 22% have received both doses.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 19, 2021)

Only 127 cases today, but still 20 deaths...
The death rate isn't really going down, which suggests that not enough testing is being done.








						Taiwan reports 20 deaths, 127 local COVID cases | Taiwan News | 2021-06-19 14:37:00
					

Number of new local cases falls to lowest level since May 14 | 2021-06-19 14:37:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




Also.








						Beijing adamant Taiwan must go through China for BioNTech vaccines | Taiwan News | 2021-06-19 14:09:00
					

China's Taiwan Affairs Office says Tsai administration 'creating obstacles' for itself | 2021-06-19 14:09:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						More than 1 million Moderna doses on way to Taiwan | Taiwan News | 2021-06-19 15:25:00
					

Two batches of Moderna vaccines reportedly arriving Sunday morning and afternoon | 2021-06-19 15:25:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 21, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Only 127 cases today, but still 20 deaths...
> The death rate isn't really going down, which suggests that not enough testing is being done.



I wouldn't say that necessarily. While death counts are more accurate, they are also about a month late.

If case count goes down with a consistent level of testing, then the COVID19 cases are truly dropping, though we don't know how much by exactly.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 21, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Only 127 cases today, but still 20 deaths...
> The death rate isn't really going down, which suggests that not enough testing is being done.
> 
> 
> ...



I read that Moderna just sent one million doses to Taiwan.  I believe that is the third vaccine maker sending in shipments now I have read about in quick order. So hope is coming, especially since they will go to the most elderly/vulnerable/medical staff first I hope.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 21, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I read that Moderna just sent one million doses to Taiwan.  I believe that is the third vaccine maker sending in shipments now I have read about in quick order. So hope is coming, especially since they will go to the most elderly/vulnerable/medical staff first I hope.


And potentially to supermarket clerks...


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 21, 2021)

75 cases, another 20 deaths.








						Taiwan reports 75 local COVID cases, 20 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-06-21 14:28:00
					

Taiwan reports fewer than 100 COVID cases for 1st time since May 14 | 2021-06-21 14:28:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## HTC (Jun 21, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 28297 active cases --- 4582 more --- 655 more per day
- 819688 recovered --- 4346 more --- 621 more per day
- 17065 fatalities --- 18 more --- 3 more per day
- 865050 confirmed infected --- 9603 more --- 1372 more per day

- 12598069 tests taken --- 290833 more --- 48472 more per day but was last updated June 17th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 7335981 vaccinated --- 790945 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 4727518 1st doses + 2608463 2nd doses
- 405 hospitalized --- 80 more --- 11 more per day
- 97 in ICU --- 15 more --- 2 more per day

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities increased slightly VS last week despite *one more day with zero fatalities*: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 12th consecutive week. New cases increased substantially and the R number increased to 1.20 on average. Roughly 47% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 26% have received both doses.

On a more personal note, i received my 1st dose last Friday: some pain in my arm and had trouble lifting it above my head but, other than that, no other symptoms thus far.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 21, 2021)

HTC said:


> On a more personal note, i received my 1st dose last Friday: some pain in my arm and had trouble lifting it above my head but, other than that, no other symptoms thus far.



Congrats!

Which vaccine? I'm a bit curious


----------



## Caring1 (Jun 22, 2021)

HTC said:


> On a more personal note, i received my 1st dose last Friday: some pain in my arm and had trouble lifting it above my head but, other than that, no other symptoms thus far.


I think the arm pain is more related to how rough some nurses can be with the intramuscular injections.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 22, 2021)

@TheLostSwede 

this is kind of depressing.  Amazon destroying crap in mass, including 20,000+ brand new covid masks still sealed... Amazon is very inefficient company... always has been imo but I had no idea it was this bad.  third party re-sellers are simply bad all around imo.  everything should go through proper channels. 









						Amazon destroys up to 200,000 items of unsold stock per week at its Dunfermline warehouse
					

In an investigation led by ITV News, the outlet shared a video with footage recorded inside Amazon's Dunfermline warehouse showing consumer electronics, jewelry, books, packages of face...




					www.techspot.com
				




pretty sad really.


----------



## Caring1 (Jun 22, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> this is kind of depressing.  Amazon destroying crap in mass, including 20,000+ brand new covid masks still sealed... Amazon is very inefficient company... always has been imo but I had no idea it was this bad.  third party re-sellers are simply bad all around imo.  everything should go through proper channels.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How is this covid related?


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 22, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> I think the arm pain is more related to how rough some nurses can be with the intramuscular injections.


The mrna vaccines intentionally contains "adjuvants" (immune system irritants, effectively) to get a fast reaction from body t-cells.

I feel that is likely the origin.


----------



## HTC (Jun 22, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Congrats!
> 
> Which vaccine? I'm a bit curious



Thanks!

Because of my penicillin allergy, they gave me Pfizer: i'm think they intended to give me Moderna but i'm not 100% on that. They kept asking me if i was "very allergic" and i told them them what my mother always told me (was too young to remember myself): they changed the hospital rules and started to wait for a *longer period* between the test shot and the actual shot's 1st dose. Never did get the 2nd dose back then as my arm had pretty much doubled in thickness and was very greyish later in the 1st dose day, or so my mother tells me.



Caring1 said:


> I think the arm pain is more related to how rough some nurses can be with the intramuscular injections.



Definitely not that: the person that gave me the shot pinched my arm several times and stuck the needle then and i pretty much didn't feel the needle going in. Due to what i had been hearing, i was expecting to have @ least *some pain* receiving the shot but no: not even a bit.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 22, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> How is this covid related?



20,000 (a statistical number) brand new sealed covid specific masks were destroyed (data), is how it is covid related.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jun 23, 2021)

104 cases, 24 deaths.








						Taiwan reports 104 local COVID cases, 24 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-06-23 14:18:00
					

Nation reports 24 deaths, bringing death toll to 599 | 2021-06-23 14:18:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				












						Taiwan extends Level 3 restrictions to July 12 | Taiwan News | 2021-06-23 15:36:00
					

CECC announces Level 3 measures to be extended to July 12 | 2021-06-23 15:36:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						Guam opening up to Taiwan's vaccine tourists | Taiwan News | 2021-06-22 19:23:00
					

Taiwanese travel agencies planning 5-day, 4-night vaccination trips to Guam.Guam marketing Air V&V trips for tourists who want to get vaccinated  | 2021-06-22 19:23:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 23, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> 104 cases, 24 deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



23 deaths in England yesterday.  and steady incline from1,000 cases per day to almost 12k cases per day, almost entirely the Delta strain.

4000 fully vaccinated in Massachusetts test positive for Covid. something tells me there will be a variant that adapts itself to the vaccinated eventually, if it can mutate so quickly already... and adapt/grow stronger as it seems to be doing.









						Nearly 4,000 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts test positive for Covid, officials say
					

One in 1,000 inoculated in state have still got virus, data shows




					www.independent.co.uk
				




Israel also has several confirmed cases of positive tests for fully vaccinated.

nothing to worry about just yet (though those 23 deaths in England and rising cases their are a cause for concern since vast vast majority of people are vaccinated in England)

I think we are going to see 6-8 months of peace and then more lockdowns from a new variant worldwide. I truly hope I am wrong, but something about this virus is just different...

That being said, I hope I get a PlayStation 5 and OLED tv by then, I might as well, I can pretty much already kiss my England travel plans goodbye if this trend continues.









						FDA to add warning about rare heart inflammation to Pfizer, Moderna vaccines
					

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Wednesday it plans to move quickly to add a warning about rare cases of heart inflammation in adolescents and young adults to fact sheets for the Pfizer/BioNTech (PFE.N),  and Moderna (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccines.




					www.reuters.com
				




USA government today officially releasing info about myocardia risks for young men after second shot of Pfizer... my second shot is due the 29th, so I am interested to see what they say.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jun 23, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Really does appear vaccination is the only way out


This is what virologists have been saying since day one, and years prior, with before and after every outbreak. Hygiene worked for the black plague but we're way past that - as was painfully shown in countries and pop. hubs the world over. Density creates new demands AND a higher frequency of outbreaks like this. Its really a natural correction for explosive growth.

History repeats. I wonder what we've actually learned this time or whether we're allowing ourselves to let fear consume common sense once more. Common sense including the acceptance of a certain amount of people dying and a much better consideration of stuff that is also important for those living. I think we have yet to see the long term damage of this pandemic, and its not a virus that keeps mutating. Its our age old belief, instinct even, to keep getting bigger, fatter, and more numerous.

Less really is more, I'm afraid, and its going to take a lot more to let that idea sink in for the majority.


----------



## 64K (Jun 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> 23 deaths in England yesterday.  and steady incline from1,000 cases per day to almost 12k cases per day, almost entirely the Delta strain.
> 
> 4000 fully vaccinated in Massachusetts test positive for Covid. something tells me there will be a variant that adapts itself to the vaccinated eventually, if it can mutate so quickly already... and adapt/grow stronger as it seems to be doing.
> 
> ...



That's what concerns me and I'm not sure if taking the vaccine should be optional. The virus could mutate into something that the vaccine can't fight in the unvaccinated  population. Do the anti-vax people really have a right to put all of us at risk that did what we were supposed to do?

The price of the PS5 is insane right now. As much as $1,500


----------



## Caring1 (Jun 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> FDA to add warning about rare heart inflammation to Pfizer, Moderna vaccines
> 
> 
> The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Wednesday it plans to move quickly to add a warning about rare cases of heart inflammation in adolescents and young adults to fact sheets for the Pfizer/BioNTech (PFE.N),  and Moderna (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccines.
> ...


I'm pretty sure I read heart inflammation was a possible risk with AZ also, despite already having cardiomyopathy and an irregular rhythm I'm still getting my second shot.


----------



## Ahhzz (Jun 23, 2021)

This was a quick, interesting read from CalTech that explained a leading scientist's thoughts on where the virus came from, and how it got "here". I particularly liked the part where I could understand all of what he was talking about lol!

TLDR from a dummy: The virus shows signs of a mutation that could happen in nature, but hasn't been seen yet (**quick edit) from viruses close to the same family. Another explanation is that it was man-modified. Either way, figuring out where it came from is critical, in that if it's natural, we need to work to keep a closer eye on other potential sources: in nature, zoos, etc. If it's artificial, then it's a good case for limiting these types of modifications to a higher "defense" lab.


----------



## xkm1948 (Jun 23, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> This was a quick, interesting read from CalTech that explained a leading scientist's thoughts on where the virus came from, and how it got "here". I particularly liked the part where I could understand all of what he was talking about lol!
> 
> TLDR from a dummy: The virus shows signs of a mutation that could happen in nature, but hasn't been seen yet (**quick edit) from viruses close to the same family. Another explanation is that it was man-modified. Either way, figuring out where it came from is critical, in that if it's natural, we need to work to keep a closer eye on other potential sources: in nature, zoos, etc. If it's artificial, then it's a good case for limiting these types of modifications to a higher "defense" lab.


A broader review from a respected world top tier scientific journal would provide better view than a single researcher from a single university









						The COVID lab-leak hypothesis: what scientists do and don’t know
					

Nature examines arguments that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab in China, and the science behind them.




					www.nature.com
				












						Divisive COVID ‘lab leak’ debate prompts dire warnings from researchers
					

Allegations that COVID escaped from a Chinese lab make it harder for nations to collaborate on ending the pandemic — and fuel online bullying, some scientists say.




					www.nature.com
				




Covid discussions remains a cesspool level of toxicity for most common folk discussion i had. Luckily as a researcher i get to interact with people outside of the “western” culture block. Sadly finger pointing is the norm for most common folks. And local media have been very good at fanning flame to fuel hatred.

Most researchers are good. Evidence and experiment based hypothesis driven research.


----------



## Ahhzz (Jun 23, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> A broader review from a respected world top tier scientific journal would provide better view than a single researcher from a single university
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I liked hearing from David Baltimore a bit more of an explanation regarding his "smoking gun" comment, and the main thing that I got from his response is that we really need to know what happened, not to point fingers, but to prevent it or be more alert for it in the future. I completely agree with you about the cesspool that is a Covid discussion. 

One thing that I've seen as a recurring theme in so many articles I've read, is that we need to take the opportunity provided by this, and learn where we screwed up with the response this time, because there will be a next time. If nothing else, this has shown us that no matter how many times people are warned "This could be bad, prepare for it!" there's always people who will insist that there's nothing to worry about.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 24, 2021)

SciTechDaily: Tree Pollen Facilitates COVID-19 Virus Spread – Carries SARS-CoV-2 Particles Farther​Yup its "The Happening"


----------



## Caring1 (Jun 24, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> This was a quick, interesting read from CalTech that explained a leading scientist's thoughts on where the virus came from, and how it got "here". I particularly liked the part where I could understand all of what he was talking about lol!
> 
> TLDR from a dummy: The virus shows signs of a mutation that could happen in nature, but hasn't been seen yet (**quick edit) from viruses close to the same family. Another explanation is that it was man-modified. Either way, figuring out where it came from is critical, in that if it's natural, we need to work to keep a closer eye on other potential sources: in nature, zoos, etc. If it's artificial, then it's a good case for limiting these types of modifications to a higher "defense" lab.


Given the virus's propensity to mutate rather rapidly, it's within reason to assume it occurred naturally and may have originated from a bat colony as suspected.


----------



## xkm1948 (Jun 24, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> I liked hearing from David Baltimore a bit more of an explanation regarding his "smoking gun" comment, and the main thing that I got from his response is that we really need to know what happened, not to point fingers, but to prevent it or be more alert for it in the future. I completely agree with you about the cesspool that is a Covid discussion.
> 
> One thing that I've seen as a recurring theme in so many articles I've read, is that we need to take the opportunity provided by this, and learn where we screwed up with the response this time, because there will be a next time. If nothing else, this has shown us that no matter how many times people are warned "This could be bad, prepare for it!" there's always people who will insist that there's nothing to worry about.




There wont be any definitive answer for a while. I have spoken in our group DM and I will say it again here. Lots of molecular clock based research that looks into RNA mutation rate and evolution origin of COVID19 have pointed to ancestral strain being vastly different from the originally thought ancestral Wuhan strain. Researchers are facing overwhelmingly amount of resistance trying to get some of these results out. In my career I have never seen so much political BS seeping into Academia. During the last years of Trump era there were systematic smearing against research professors of Chinese decedent.  One of which here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-...ding-china-work-ends-in-hung-jury-11623879264


Last year a postdoc friend of mine working in immunology department at my previous institution was beaten down by 2 while cycling home. He is Taiwanese. Simply because he looks Asian and that is all the excuses the attackers needed.


Honestly I have little hope going forward. As climate crisis worsens, more and more pathogen spill-over event will occur. Meanwhile nations will once again be too busy at pointing fingers at each other and fanning the hate within their own boarders. Not to mention the population within are on steroids attacking the very researchers that work on helping the population (See how much hate Dr. Fauci got since pandemic begin).


Sorry for the off topic. Feel free to delete if it is not fit.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 24, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> Given the virus's propensity to mutate rather rapidly, it's within reason to assume it occurred naturally and may have originated from a bat colony as suspected.



Weren't there bats kept in the WIV


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 24, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Weren't there bats kept in the WIV



Yes.  That's what happens when you study bat viruses.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 24, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Weren't there bats kept in the WIV



While almost definitely true, this is the type of story that is pushing the 'emotion' of blame. Wuhan lab studied bats for a reason. It was in Wuhan for a reason. A virus had been identified. A virus in, or near, a city with millions of people. Why dies everyone keep blaming the lab, when the lab was built because a virus was discovered in Wuhan. The virus existed prior to the lab, therefore, it's highly probable people in Wuhan had the virus for a while before it took a hold.

It's like saying the coast got windier because someone built a windfarm out at sea.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 24, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> While almost definitely true, this is the type of story that is pushing the 'emotion' of blame. Wuhan lab studied bats for a reason. It was in Wuhan for a reason. A virus had been identified. A virus in, or near, a city with millions of people. Why dies everyone keep blaming the lab, when the lab was built because a virus was discovered in Wuhan. The virus existed prior to the lab, therefore, it's highly probable people in Wuhan had the virus for a while before it took a hold.
> 
> It's like saying the coast got windier because someone built a windfarm out at sea.



Well the video kind of goes into the history of the lab as well and the miss opportunities of the WHO scientist investigators. Which fail to ask simplest of questions.

For reference Daszak was denying they were bats at the WIV up until this month but he never even asked them given the opportunity nor did he even ask to see the database. He was also going to lead the U.N. backed investigation up until a day ago.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 24, 2021)

Yeah, I agree. It's the fault of the Chinese government that so many fingers are pointing. We need to remember we're dealing with a system that doesn't tolerate dissent or failure. Wuhan (being likely source area) of the world's worst pandemic in a century is a huge embarrassment. The authorities want to escape blame but they're doing it in such a way they're making it worse.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 24, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Honestly I have little hope going forward. As climate crisis worsens, more and more pathogen spill-over event will occur.











						India Says New 'Delta Plus' Coronavirus Variant May Be More Transmissible
					

India has detected over 40 cases of a new coronavirus variant called "Delta Plus," which may be more transmissible and resistant to COVID-19 treatments.




					www.npr.org
				




the Delta variant has already mutated and is more transmissible than original Delta variant. They are calling it Delta Plus, cause in the world of journalism, they so fancy. lol

I don't think you have to wait for a future pathogen, Covid is here to stay and will continue to grow, bolder, stronger, faster ~ que the kanye west song.  lol

as I have said many times, I think we will see a period of peace for about 6 months to a year, eventually it will mutate and conquer the vaccines faster than they can create boosters, so far we are still lucky, but if its already mutated this fast, I don't see what's to stop it from mutating again in a month, and a month after that.  plane travel is booming right now, 7 billion people, can't vaccinate them all fast enough.

even if you could, 4000+ fully vaccinated just tested positive in state of MA.  science hasn't yet proven it can't mutate in those people yet either.

honestly I am still quite scared. I think Covid is a new beast the world has never seen before, I don't give a damn about its origins anymore. It's here, and it's here to stay. I just hope I am wrong, and in 6-8 months life will still be mostly normal.


----------



## Caring1 (Jun 24, 2021)

Sorry, not laughing at you, just the Kanye line got me.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 24, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> Sorry, not laughing at you, just the Kanye line got me.



let's just hope my hypothesis is wrong.  if it's not, let me know if you want to go halves' on a log cabin and grow some food together in a couple years.


----------



## joemama (Jun 24, 2021)

The virus could mutate faster, so the best we can do minimize the spread, as long as it doesn't spread, the mutation won't speed up.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 26, 2021)

@Caring1









						There are at least 200 known cases of the Delta Plus coronavirus variant worldwide. Here's what we know
					

A new and slightly changed version of the Delta coronavirus variant is spreading in a number of countries including the United Kingdom, United States and India, health officials say.




					www.gwinnettdailypost.com
				




only a matter of time, all the plane travel in full bloom... and countries weren't even wise enough to require vaccine card before coming in their country...  LOL  I honestly don't even care anymore, just laughing like a madman at this point.  there is no stopping Covid. it's going to mutate and mutate until it finally wins the jackpot.  mRNA won't be able to keep up until there is another lockdown issues and 4k+ daily deaths again.  Covid is here to stay.

We can't rely on countries to use any common sense, so we have to adapt. TIME TO GAME AND BUY LOG CABIN BOYS 

love all the people where I live, think they are so tough cause they stopped wearing masks and are looking at me funny still for wearing one.  LOL  it's amazing to me how humans don't understand basic logic.  you think this is the last mutation? it literally spreads faster with each mutation...

even with UK mostly all vaccinated, that curve is skyrocketing... its literally doubling every few days... at 15k positive rate now in one day...  was 6k daily last week, and 1k daily week before that.  vaccine may keep us from dying and hospital, but its not stopping this new variant from spreading. only a matter of time before it mutates again, probably with someone that has the vaccine, and it changes its spike into something new.  keep giving me funny looks for wearing my mask at grocery store, i'm just playing the kanye west stronger song over and over at this point LMAO  covid got an anthem boys!









						England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
					

Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.




					coronavirus.data.gov.uk


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 26, 2021)

Israel removed their mask mandate last week (I think), but they've reinstated it as cases (relatively) surged.

Also, the UK figures look bad but the hospitalisations are way below what they were, same for deaths. The affected groups are largely younger with 0 or 1 doses. But even then, the infections aren't even serious in the majority of cases. What we're seeing is a disconnect between case level and threat but what's being reported on is the 'fear' of threat. Fact is, at the start of the pandemic, Covid19 wasn't a terribly nasty virus to most people (look at the asymptomatic rates). It was the ease of transmission that made it a killer by way of numbers and by way of no immunity. Look at it now; the older populations (double-dosed) aren't getting infected anywhere near as much and those who are (younger groups) aren't being hospitalised.

Scotland's positive cases by age. Notably, the death graph basically hits the 75-84 group hardest.











Despite what it looks like, things are far better now.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 26, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Israel removed their mask mandate last week (I think), but they've reinstated it as cases (relatively) surged.
> 
> Also, the UK figures look bad but the hospitalisations are way below what they were, same for deaths. The affected groups are largely younger with 0 or 1 doses. But even then, the infections aren't even serious in the majority of cases. What we're seeing is a disconnect between case level and threat but what's being reported on is the 'fear' of threat. Fact is, at the start of the pandemic, Covid19 wasn't a terribly nasty virus to most people (look at the asymptomatic rates). It was the ease of transmission that made it a killer by way of numbers and by way of no immunity. Look at it now; the older populations (double-dosed) aren't getting infected anywhere near as much and those who are (younger groups) aren't being hospitalised.
> 
> ...



I 100% understand what you are saying and I agree.  I simply mean that if we look at the past, the virus has mutated many times, in fact in one lady with an autoimmune disorder it mutated over 200 times in her alone... to think we have things under control now is a short term statement imo. I think Covid is something the world has never seen before, this is not Sars 1. This thing adapts way to fast, hence why it spreads faster each time it mutates... it's only a matter of time in the medium to long term, before Covid mutates again and is more deadly and spreads even faster than Delta + variant, keep in mind the Delta variant already has Pfizer and Moderna scratching their heads, 80% first shot efficacy down to 33% efficacy, sure the second shot takes care of it. 

My point is Covid is going to be here forever, and its going to be a game of lockdowns when a new variant comes and mRNA booster update variants probably for rest of our lives.  Don't know about you but I sure as hell hope I am wrong. I truly do hope I am wrong. Cause that world would suck.

I only hope if I am right... if I am right... I hope that countries get smarter in how they deal with it.


----------



## HTC (Jun 26, 2021)

Despite the Government not saying so, yet: Portugal are already under a 4th wave, IMO: we are having higher numbers of new daily cases than we ever did during the 1st wave.

HOWEVER, and as a testament of the vaccine's impact, we have WAY fewer deaths and even fewer hospitalized / ICU because the *vast majority *of those more likely to have worse complications are partially / fully vaccinated.

Some areas have paused the re-opening process while others have actually gone back on theirs.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 26, 2021)

HTC said:


> Despite the Government not saying so, yet: Portugal are already under a 4th wave, IMO: we are having higher numbers of new daily cases than we ever did during the 1st wave.
> 
> HOWEVER, and as a testament of the vaccine's impact, we have WAY fewer deaths and even fewer hospitalized / ICU because the *vast majority *of those more likely to have worse complications are partially / fully vaccinated.
> 
> Some areas have paused the re-opening process while others have actually gone back on theirs.



I expect the United Kingdom will be in same shoes as Portugal in less than 3 weeks.  I can probably kiss visiting there goodbye now. We'll see what it all looks like in a few weeks anyway.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 26, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I expect the United Kingdom will be in same shoes as Portugal in less than 3 weeks.  I can probably kiss visiting there goodbye now. We'll see what it all looks like in a few weeks anyway.


Not sure what all the fuss is about TBH, I thought everyone knew that Covid will be with us for a long long time, so achieving a flu like scenario is not the answer for you?  Even most of our caution led scientists are saying that very much like the flu, if the majority of the population is vaccinated and don't get seriously sick or die then how relevant are infection rates which will diminish once the last 20% of our adult population gets the needle in any case, we can all worry about variants this year and the next but if you worry too much about tomorrow you will lose today 

In the UK since the delta variant was identified we have had 50 deaths as a direct result of it (reported on the news yesterday), these deaths were all over 50 year olds and almost exclusively one jab people or 2 jabs with significant underlying conditions, currently the under 30 year olds account for 98% of new infections and all the adult under 30's with underlying conditions have pretty much been double jabbed already.  I really am not seeing anything that has not been anticipated, I mean the UK has opened up significantly in a staged manner over the last 3 months, of course infection rates are going to rise. I am not suggesting this is perfect by any means, for all of us it's a vaccination race against time.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 26, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Not sure what all the fuss is about TBH, I thought everyone knew that Covid will be with us for a long long time, so achieving a flu like scenario is not the answer for you?  Even most of our caution led scientists are saying that very much like the flu, if the majority of the population is vaccinated and don't get seriously sick or die then how relevant are infection rates which will diminish once the last 20% of our adult population gets the needle in any case, we can all worry about variants this year and the next but if you worry too much about tomorrow you will lose today
> 
> In the UK since the delta variant was identified we have had 50 deaths as a direct result of it (reported on the news yesterday), these deaths were all over 50 year olds and almost exclusively one jab people or 2 jabs with significant underlying conditions, currently the under 30 year olds account for 98% of new infections and all the adult under 30's with underlying conditions have pretty much been double jabbed already.  I really am not seeing anything that has not been anticipated, I mean the UK has opened up significantly in a staged manner over the last 3 months, of course infection rates are going to rise. I am not suggesting this is perfect by any means, for all of us it's a vaccination race against time.



you are indeed correct. honestly my relatives, friends have their pfizer, and ill have my second shot in 3 days... yolo!!!!  i miss England... got to live before you die. you are right about that. as long as i do everything i can to be smart about it and wear a good mask on the plane, etc. it should all be fine.


----------



## HTC (Jun 27, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 31779 active cases --- 3500 more --- 500 more per day
- 825684 recovered --- 4346 more --- 857 more per day
- 17084 fatalities --- 19 more --- 3 more per day
- 874547 confirmed infected --- 9497 more --- 1357 more per day

- 12926064 tests taken --- 336995 more --- 56166 more per day but was last updated June 23rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 7903317 vaccinated --- 567336 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 5048460 1st doses + 2854857 2nd doses
- 477 hospitalized --- 72 more --- 10 more per day
- 116 in ICU --- 19 more --- 3 more per day

The main report wasn't published on several days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities increased very slightly VS last week: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 13th consecutive week. The R number *decreased* to 1.15 on average. Roughly 50% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 28% have received both doses.

For the 2nd consecutive week, we've been having an average of over 1350 new daily cases and, though we had a *very slight* decrease VS last week, it's still cause for concern.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 27, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> In the UK since the delta variant was identified we have had 50 deaths as a direct result of it (reported on the news yesterday), these deaths were all over 50 year olds and almost exclusively one jab people or 2 jabs with significant underlying conditions, currently the under 30 year olds account for 98% of new infections and all the adult under 30's with underlying conditions have pretty much been double jabbed already.  I really am not seeing anything that has not been anticipated, I mean the UK has opened up significantly in a staged manner over the last 3 months, of course infection rates are going to rise. I am not suggesting this is perfect by any means, for all of us it's a vaccination race against time.



Its rising


> As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test



June 25


> There have now been a total of 117 deaths in England of people confirmed as having the Delta variant



Back to the USA


> The CDC doesn’t count every breakthrough case. It stopped counting all breakthrough cases May 1 and now only tallies those that lead to hospitalization or death, a move the agency was criticized for by health experts.


Breakthrough cases aren't being fully counted or anything that doesn't land you in the ICU or death.


> On June 7, the CDC received reports of 3,459 breakthrough cases that led to hospitalization or death. On June 18, that number was updated to 3,729, an increase of 270 cases. Today, the number stands at 4,115.


A week or two ago I posted local news of 2 counties in my area reported what would make almost half of the CDC numbers in the entire USA at the time.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Its rising
> 
> 
> June 25
> ...


Well the news must have got it wrong then, however it apparently has a really low death rate @ 0.13% which is less than the death rate for influenza in the UK 2018/19 which was 0.22% ....................

Low death rate from Delta variant 'hugely encouraging' for vaccine success (inews.co.uk)


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 28, 2021)

Is one vaccine dose enough if you’ve had COVID? What the science says
					

Research shows that a previous coronavirus infection plus one dose of vaccine provides powerful protection — but concerns linger.




					www.nature.com
				




looks like those that previously had Covid who only get one shot of Pfizer have more antibodies than people who never had covid and had both shots of Pfizer.  on top of that, it looks like if you had covid previously plus get both shots of pfizer you actually get lower antibodies than compared to sticking with one shot.

looks like the science is fairly clear on this one, if you had covid previously you only need 1 shot not two.  that's good news for the world supply issues.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Is one vaccine dose enough if you’ve had COVID? What the science says
> 
> 
> Research shows that a previous coronavirus infection plus one dose of vaccine provides powerful protection — but concerns linger.
> ...



The article says those who had Covid and one jab had "equal or greater" antibodies. It's not a simple case of two jabs is worse. They also say it's too early to make a clear judgement as it may not apply to all vaccines.

But this isn't a surprise, medical staff tested in 2020 had high Covid antibody levels, clearly because of a constant 'micro' exposure through use of PPE.

Problem is, 80% of cases are asymptomatic, so how do you know if you've had your natural exposure and only need one jab? Studies are meaningless unless they're transposed onto real world scenarios.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 28, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> The article says those who had Covid and one jab had "equal or greater" antibodies. It's not a simple case of two jabs is worse. They also say it's too early to make a clear judgement as it may not apply to all vaccines.
> 
> But this isn't a surprise, medical staff tested in 2020 had high Covid antibody levels, clearly because of a constant 'micro' exposure through use of PPE.
> 
> Problem is, 80% of cases are asymptomatic, so how do you know if you've had your natural exposure and only need one jab? Studies are meaningless unless they're transposed onto real world scenarios.



when I had covid it was not asymptomatic, in fact it kicked my ass.  so I am in the category that qualifies as only needing one jab.  easy way to find out, pay $10 for an antibody blood test. if its low then i get second shot, if not then im good to go.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 28, 2021)

I recall various sources including the British Medical Journal stating a few months back that people who had caught either the original or Alpha (UK) variant had gone on to catch the South African variant just 2 or 3 months later and when tested it was shown that they had very week immune systems in relation to the SA variant so I suppose, as they say, "not all variants are equal"


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 28, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> I recall various sources including the British Medical Journal stating a few months back that people who had caught either the original or Alpha (UK) variant had gone on to catch the South African variant just 2 or 3 months later and when tested it was shown that they had very week immune systems in relation to the SA variant so I suppose, as they say, "not all variants are equal"



Did those people have 3 weeks past their first shot of Pfizer or Moderna before they caught the other variant? That's the key part of this.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jun 28, 2021)

I am fairly sure they were un-vaccinated but my point being that if the vaccine is effective against XXX variant, natural immunity gained from a different variant may not be and therefore your post #2954 assumption may be altered somewhat.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 28, 2021)

Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines Likely to Produce Lasting Immunity, Study Finds (Published 2021)
					

Immune cells are still organizing to fight the coronavirus months after inoculation, scientists reported.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Immunity has been demonstrated in 8+ month trials, 12+ month trials, and even longer trials. Furthermore: the immune response from our bodies also evolves over time.



> “Everyone always focuses on the virus evolving — this is showing that the B cells are doing the same thing,” said Marion Pepper, an immunologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. “And it’s going to be protective against ongoing evolution of the virus, which is really encouraging.”



The vaccine doesn't change, but our B-cells (the creators of antibodies) change and evolve. As such: our bodies are able to handle variants even though these variants don't look like the vaccine.

Furthermore, this study suggests a very long period of immunity, possibly lifetime (as long as the virus doesn't evolve too much):



> Exactly how long the protection from mRNA vaccines will last is hard to predict. In the absence of variants that sidestep immunity, in theory immunity could last a lifetime, experts said. But the virus is clearly evolving.
> 
> “Anything that would actually require a booster would be variant-based, not based on waning of immunity,” Dr. Bhattacharya said. “I just don’t see that happening.”



Finally:



> In terms of bolstering the immune system, vaccination is “probably better” than recovering from the actual infection, he said. Other studies have suggested that the repertoire of memory B cells produced after vaccination is more diverse than that generated by infection, suggesting that the vaccines will protect better against variants than natural immunity alone.



mRNA Vaccination is once again, proving to be better at protecting than the actual disease in yet another measure. Nature ain't got nothing on our supervaccine.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 28, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines Likely to Produce Lasting Immunity, Study Finds (Published 2021)
> 
> 
> Immune cells are still organizing to fight the coronavirus months after inoculation, scientists reported.
> ...


For those who don't want to run into the pay wall
Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines likely to produce long-lasting immunity, study suggests​
So 4 months


> “The fact that the reactions continued for almost four months after vaccination — that’s a very, very good sign,”



The important part


> The findings add to growing evidence that most people immunized with the mRNA vaccines *may not* need boosters, *so long as the virus and its variants do not evolve much* beyond their *current forms — which is not guaranteed*


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 28, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> So 4 months



This is a reaction that normally disappears 1 week after a typical vaccination. Context is important. There's a reason why they're talking "possible lifetime" for this study.


----------



## Xzibit (Jun 28, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> This is a reaction that normally disappears 1 week after a typical vaccination. Context is important. There's a reason why they're talking "possible lifetime" for this study.



Those who are being studied had been infected with COVID-19 then Vaccinated.  They are hopeful the same reaction is possible with vaccine alone.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 28, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Those who are being studied had been infected with COVID-19 then Vaccinated.  They are hopeful the same reaction is possible with vaccine alone.





> To address this question, we conducted an observational study of 41 healthy adults (8 with history of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection) who received the Pfizer-BioNTech SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) (Extended Data Tables 1, 2)



Of the 41 studied individuals, only 8 of them had COVID19 and then was vaccinated. The other 33 individuals were simply vaccinated + 2nd dose. The immune system responses in both groups of people were then measured in a 3, 4, 5, 7, and 15 week period after vaccination.

Further details can be found in the linked article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03738-2


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 1, 2021)

We're beginning to reach incredible amounts of practical real-life evidence for how effective these vaccines are.









						Nearly 100% of L.A. County’s recent COVID deaths among the unvaccinated as Delta variant spreads
					

Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in recent months in Los Angeles County have been among unvaccinated residents, the same group most at risk of being infected with a new, more contagious coronavirus varia…




					ktla.com
				






> “This is a pandemic of unvaccinated people,” L.A. County Health Director Barbara Ferrer said during a briefing.
> 
> Between Dec. 7 and June 7, 98.7% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 weren’t vaccinated and 99.8% of people who died weren’t vaccinated either, according to the health director.



The country is currently in 40% fully vaccinated / ~50% first dose vaccinated mark (which means back in Dec / January / Feb, there were more unvaccinated than vaccinated). So leave your Simpson's paradox at the door: if anything, Simpson's paradox benefits the vaccine group.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 1, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Of the 41 studied individuals, only 8 of them had COVID19 and then was vaccinated. The other 33 individuals were simply vaccinated + 2nd dose. The immune system responses in both groups of people were then measured in a 3, 4, 5, 7, and 15 week period after vaccination.
> 
> Further details can be found in the linked article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03738-2



so this article confirms the previous article I linked?  those 8 people had same levels or better of immune response with only one shot?

im leaning towards not getting my second shot. all the science seems to say that if you had symptoms with covid, recovered, then get one shot instead of two your antibodies are better than those with no covid and both shots. so technically i should be better than most people right now.    feels good to be protected won't lie.  now i just need to figure out if i need second shot or not. i'd prefer not if possible. need another study to confirm this before i know for sure though i think... i can still get second shot up to 6 weeks out from first one... so lets hope another study gets posted soon


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 1, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> so this article confirms the previous article I linked?  those 8 people had same levels or better of immune response with only one shot?
> 
> im leaning towards not getting my second shot. all the science seems to say that if you had symptoms with covid, recovered, then get one shot instead of two your antibodies are better than those with no covid and both shots. so technically i should be better than most people right now.    feels good to be protected won't lie.  now i just need to figure out if i need second shot or not. i'd prefer not if possible. need another study to confirm this before i know for sure though i think... i can still get second shot up to 6 weeks out from first one... so lets hope another study gets posted soon



All 41 participants had both doses (even the 8 who previously had COVID19). This is clear in "Extended Table 2" in the above linked .PDF, page 18. The only thing that's clear from this particular study, is that the recommended 2-doses is very effective in a variety of measurements in a variety of timelines (from 3 weeks to 15 weeks). Nothing in the article seems to support your assertions.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 1, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> so this article confirms the previous article I linked?  those 8 people had same levels or better of immune response with only one shot?
> 
> im leaning towards not getting my second shot. all the science seems to say that if you had symptoms with covid, recovered, then get one shot instead of two your antibodies are better than those with no covid and both shots. so technically i should be better than most people right now.    feels good to be protected won't lie.  now i just need to figure out if i need second shot or not. i'd prefer not if possible. need another study to confirm this before i know for sure though i think... i can still get second shot up to 6 weeks out from first one... so lets hope another study gets posted soon


?


> Evidence that the tested vaccines induce new as well as pre-existing B cells is remains weak and a more careful wording is recommended in regard to this statement.



The newer post reported in the LA article the USC Prof @00:50+ says "The data so far shows people with prior infection have equal protection to those vaccinated"  "Do you really need to get vaccinate, we really don't know, It is recommended regardless of prior infection"


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 2, 2021)

In the article I linked a few posts ago, the science seems fairly clear to me that previous symptomatic (not asymptomatic) infection + 1 shot of vaccine = better than no infection + two shots of vaccine.

I think I am pretty safe at this point. If nothing else I will get the second shot in week 6.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 2, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> In the article I linked a few posts ago, the science seems fairly clear to me that previous symptomatic (not asymptomatic) infection + 1 shot of vaccine = better than no infection + two shots of vaccine.
> 
> I think I am pretty safe at this point. If nothing else I will get the second shot in week 6.



Most of the studies finding these B cell variation cells that are good at fighting different variant of covid-19 are being found on non-vaccinated asymptomatic people.  Wouldn't surprise me if by next year we see one of these big pharma companies come out with a cocktail mix of some sort.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 2, 2021)

My understanding is that "natural immunity" is only a reasonable certainty if you come into contact with the strain of the virus that you have had previously but if it is a different variant then immunity can be compromised, even in the UK there is evidence that many people who caught the original strain last Spring have caught the virus again because that original strain pretty much does not exist any longer over here, in the Winter the Alpha (UK) variant became dominant and now the Delta (Indian) variant is 97% dominant but to shed a little more light on the current topic I found this quite interesting from the NIH ..............

How Immunity Generated from COVID-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection – NIH Director's Blog


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 2, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> My understanding is that "natural immunity" is only a reasonable certainty if you come into contact with the strain of the virus that you have had previously but if it is a different variant then immunity can be compromised, even in the UK there is evidence that many people who caught the original strain last Spring have caught the virus again because that original strain pretty much does not exist any longer over here, in the Winter the Alpha (UK) variant became dominant and now the Delta (Indian) variant is 97% dominant but to shed a little more light on the current topic I found this quite interesting from the NIH ..............
> 
> How Immunity Generated from COVID-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection – NIH Director's Blog



Like benchmarking for a favorable result


> There are several limitations to our study. The vaccinated individuals in our study were relatively young (18 to 55 years) and healthy, whereas the convalescent individuals were older (23 to 76 years; median, 56) with a range of comorbidities


----------



## HTC (Jul 4, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 38124 active cases --- 6345 more --- 906 more per day
- 833852 recovered --- 8168 more --- 1167 more per day
- 17112 fatalities --- 28 more --- 4 more per day
- 889088 confirmed infected --- 14541 more --- 2077 more per day

- 13332881 tests taken --- 406817 more --- 58117 more per day but was last updated June 23rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 9060568 vaccinated --- 1157251 more --- last updated today but that corresponds to 5662065 1st doses + 3398503 2nd doses
- 567 hospitalized --- 90 more --- 13 more per day
- 128 in ICU --- 12 more --- 2 more per day

The main report wasn't published yesterday, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities increased slightly VS last week, despite having 1 day with zero fatalities: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 14th consecutive week. The R number *increased* to 1.17 on average. Roughly 56.5% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 33.7% have received both doses. Over *1.1 million doses* administered in just one week: for a country of just over 10 million people, *that's VERY significant*.

New daily cases have risen well above our 1st wave's peak though are still below our 2nd wave's and it looks like it will continue to grow further before receding: NOT GOOD ... though not as bad due to the vaccine's efficacy.


----------



## 64K (Jul 4, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> @Caring1
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I still wear a mask too and don't plan to stop. Some people believe the vaccines are more effective than they really are. You can still get the Covid Virus even if you are vaccinated.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 4, 2021)

64K said:


> I still wear a mask too and don't plan to stop. Some people believe the vaccines are more effective than they really are. You can still get the Covid Virus even if you are vaccinated.



but only like 0.001% of those fully vaccinated get the virus and end up in hospital. that's not why I wear a mask, I wear it just in-case there is a new mutation we won't know about until it hits hard and fast. and since each new variant seems to spread faster than the one before it... 

I have had some friends tell me the vaccine may cause it to mutate even more, once it gets into a vaccine person and realizes it has to adapt or die... not sure how true that is. I'm still glad I got my Pfizer jab to be honest, it feels like extra blanket of security.


----------



## HTC (Jul 4, 2021)

64K said:


> I still wear a mask too and don't plan to stop. Some people believe the vaccines are more effective than they really are.* You can still get the Covid Virus even if you are vaccinated.*



Here in Portugal, and according to our Health Department (DGS), out of 2.5M people with BOTH doses taken, 2357 still got the virus but only 52 required hospitalization: that's 0.094% infected and 0.002% hospitalized.

That's FANTASTIC: even better than the 95% efficacy advertised.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 5, 2021)

HTC said:


> Here in Portugal, and according to our Health Department (DGS), out of 2.5M people with BOTH doses taken, 2357 still got the virus but only 52 required hospitalization: that's 0.094% infected and 0.002% hospitalized.
> 
> That's FANTASTIC: even better than the 95% efficacy advertised.



Bad math. Your math only holds true if all 2.5M people were exposed to the virus.

What you need to do is calculate the number of infected people, then split them up into vaccinated vs unvaccinated pools, and then run like some kind of ANOVA statistical test over the data. I don't really know, I'm not a statistician and I never actually formally studied experimental theory. But I picked some stuff up over the flamewars over the past year...

But the 95% efficacy for Pfizer was from such a study with such statistics. When the control group had X infections, the vaccine group (of equal size and of similar distribution) only had X/20 infections, or 95% efficacy.


----------



## HTC (Jul 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> *Bad math. Your math only holds true if all 2.5M people were exposed to the virus.*
> 
> What you need to do is calculate the number of infected people, then split them up into vaccinated vs unvaccinated pools, and then run like some kind of ANOVA statistical test over the data. I don't really know, I'm not a statistician and I never actually formally studied experimental theory. But I picked some stuff up over the flamewars over the past year...
> 
> But the 95% efficacy for Pfizer was from such a study with such statistics. When the control group had X infections, the vaccine group (of equal size and of similar distribution) only had X/20 infections, or 95% efficacy.



I think i see your point. Portugal also has over 3.3M people fully vaccinated but the data posted on the news was only 2.5M, which i found odd.

That said, of an universe of 2.5M with full vaccination to have only that many cases with COVID-19 / hospitalizations, is a testament to the value of the vaccines and their efficacy.

EDIT

I figured it out why it's only 2.5M with full vaccination instead of the current 3.3M: it's because of the 10-15 days waiting period AFTER the last dose, which i wasn't taking in to account.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 7, 2021)

the latest out of Israel is that two shots of covid only protect 64% against delta variant, not 80% as previously thought.

93% of severe hospitalizations... which is down as well from previous calculations.

still good.  hell, still great. but its a worrying trend as it continues to mutate...

as I said before. the virus is learning.  so who wants to go half in half on a cabin in woods and grow our own veggies? LOL


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> the latest out of Israel is that two shots of covid only protect 64% against delta variant, not 80% as previously thought.
> 
> 93% of severe hospitalizations... which is down as well from previous calculations.
> 
> ...



UK studies from June show a better response. 14k cases looked at.









						Vaccines highly effective against hospitalisation from Delta variant
					

New analysis by PHE shows for the first time that 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalisation from the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant.




					www.gov.uk
				




Remember, vaccines don't stop you testing positive. They massively reduce mortality and more so for severe illness.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> the latest out of Israel is that two shots of covid only protect 64% against delta variant, not 80% as previously thought.
> 
> 93% of severe hospitalizations... which is down as well from previous calculations.
> 
> ...



Science is not very precise. The answer is likely that the vaccines protection is between 63% and 80%.

It's fun to be an electrical engineer. Circuit tolerances are measured in decibels of noise. 3db loss is a +/- 50% difference. Our junk works off of 20db or even 50db of variance (especially radios lol)

Don't sweat the exact number. Everything you see is just a best estimate. Assume like 1 sigfig of accuracy on a lot of these studies.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 7, 2021)

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection caused by the P.1 lineage in Araraquara city, Sao Paulo State, Brazil - PubMed
					

Reinfection by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-COV-2) has been reported in many countries, suggesting that the virus may continue to circulate among humans despite the possibility of local herd immunity due to massive previous infections. The emergence of variants...




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




A 2nd study showing that P.1 seemingly *reinfected* large portions of a Brazillian population, this time in Araraquara City.

The P.1 variant (aka: Brazil variant) has been shown to be behind the reinfection of the city of Manaus (a previous study), and now Araraquara city. This means that even if you have gotten COVID19, get vaccinated so that you can be protected from P.1.

I know people are talking about Delta right now, but P.1 being a threat to "natural immunity" holders is also an issue. Delta's big issue is how it drops the efficacy of the vaccinated population (serious illness is still prevented, but now the virus can traverse even a vaccinated population). Given what we know, its clear that fully vaccinating people is the best shot against Delta and P.1.

-------

P.1 is known as "Gamma", currently less of an immediate concern than "Delta" (aka: Indian variant), but still important enough to be given a "scary greek letter". Alpha is now the name of the UK-variant, and Beta is now the name of the South African variant.

It seems like people were tired of trying to remember how to type out "B.1.1.7" (aka: Alpha / UK variant), and maybe the whole "country designation" isn't going to scale (what if India or UK get a 2nd variant of concern? Calling it UK #2 might be confusing)


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 7, 2021)

CBS: Santa Clara County Revises Official COVID-19 Death Toll Down by 22 Percent​Second county to report a 20% drop in deaths after a review



> “It is important to go back and do this accounting to see if COVID was actually the cause of death,” said University of California San Francisco Prof. of Medicine and Infectious Disease expert Dr. Monica Gandhi. “I think that transparent communication is an upside, I mean, in the sense that it’s true that if we did this across the nation, it would bring our death rate lower. A downside of that, could be that people will say, ‘Well, it wasn’t as serious as you said.'”





> Gandhi believes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may soon ask all counties to do the same as Alameda and Santa Clara Counties and that the nation could also see a drop in its COVID-19 death toll.


----------



## claes (Jul 7, 2021)

If you could post some thoughts about your news articles it’d be helpful, it’s kind of hard to infer what your meaning/intentions are when you simply post headlines


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 7, 2021)

The UK already did that last summer. Only cases who had tested positive for Covid within 28 days were treated as true Covid deaths. If you actually died of Covid but never tested for it, it would be missed. So, this goes both ways. It likely underestimates the deaths. If you look at places with poorer access to healthcare, where people died at home, there'll be a hidden toll far in excess of the drop this adjustment would achieve. India is one example of that.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 7, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> The UK already did that last summer. Only cases who had tested positive for Covid within 28 days were treated as true Covid deaths. If you actually died of Covid but never tested for it, it would be missed. So, this goes both ways. It likely underestimates the deaths. If you look at places with poorer access to healthcare, where people died at home, there'll be a hidden toll far in excess of the drop this adjustment would achieve. India is one example of that.


UK PHE


> The new definition is now death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and died within (equal to or less than) 28 days of the first positive specimen date will now be reported





> The PHE data series includes deaths in anyone with laboratory confirmed COVID-19, including those who die outside of hospital settings. It aims to be a timely and complete measure by combining information from multiple sources.





> the PHE data series *does not report cause of death*, and as such represents deaths in people with COVID-19 and *not necessarily caused by COVID-19*.



UK went from a No cut-off limit to a 28 day cut-off for positive test.


> Both the prior and updated definitions for COVID-19 deaths used by the County fit within the parameters established by the State of California Department of Public Health. The prior definition included anyone who had COVID-19 who died, *while the updated definition focuses on the cause of the death* and aligns better with the determinations made by the Medical Examiner-Coroner in cases of overlapping jurisdiction.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 8, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> The UK already did that last summer. Only cases who had tested positive for Covid within 28 days were treated as true Covid deaths. If you actually died of Covid but never tested for it, it would be missed. So, this goes both ways. It likely underestimates the deaths. If you look at places with poorer access to healthcare, where people died at home, there'll be a hidden toll far in excess of the drop this adjustment would achieve. India is one example of that.



I agree with this, you would be surprised how many clinics just turn people away and say go rest at home, and then families give up.

My Mom had loss of taste (a few other symptoms and overall felt ill) in April/May 2020, went to ER, and they refused to even test her even though she had a very specific symptom and just told her to go home, unless she got worse. She ended up not going back (thinking no one cared and they wouldn't do anything even if she went back) but was sick for several weeks.

I really have lost a lot of respect for the medical community over the last 18 months. They get paid a ton... but seem to fail at basic logic. I'm not sure I even trust the FDA anymore with their approval of snake oil cure for Alzheimer's by Biogen.


----------



## claes (Jul 8, 2021)

I dunno I gained a lot of respect for my friends in ERs this last year... They were turning away people who weren’t dying because they didn’t have supplies or beds or oxygen. Has to be tough working in a just-in-time/LEAN hospital when a pandemic hits amd you watch hundreds die due to a lack of supplies, budget cuts, lay offs, etc


----------



## 64K (Jul 8, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I agree with this, you would be surprised how many clinics just turn people away and say go rest at home, and then families give up.
> 
> My Mom had loss of taste (a few other symptoms and overall felt ill) in April/May 2020, went to ER, and they refused to even test her even though she had a very specific symptom and just told her to go home, unless she got worse. She ended up not going back (thinking no one cared and they wouldn't do anything even if she went back) but was sick for several weeks.
> 
> I really have lost a lot of respect for the medical community over the last 18 months. They get paid a ton... but seem to fail at basic logic. I'm not sure I even trust the FDA anymore with their approval of snake oil cure for Alzheimer's by Biogen.



I get your frustration with the medical community and I get frustrated with them too but I think I understand why they did what they did at the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak. They were swamped with people that had trouble breathing or would have died without considerable medical treatment. There are only so many beds available so they had to prioritize based on the condition of the infected. If she had started having trouble breathing then they would have found some place for her.

This virus is scary. We got all the way down to the single digits of new cases for a while here in my County and now yesterday it ballooned to 52 new cases per day. It must be the new variants.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 8, 2021)

64K said:


> I get your frustration with the medical community and I get frustrated with them too but I think I understand why they did what they did at the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak. They were swamped with people that had trouble breathing or would have died without considerable medical treatment. There are only so many beds available so they had to prioritize based on the condition of the infected. If she had started having trouble breathing then they would have found some place for her.
> 
> This virus is scary. We got all the way down to the single digits of new cases for a while here in my County and now yesterday it ballooned to 52 new cases per day. It must be the new variants.



Normally I would agree with you, but I am from a small town, and the ER was relatively empty the night my mom went. Our small town didn't get hit that hard and we have a really big oversized hospital (relative to our area) that was built only about a decade or so ago. They had plenty here, in fact they only told her not to worry about her no taste, they let her into the part of the hospital where covid positive people are not supposed to be allowed. So they neglected not only the Covid test with a very specific (no taste) covid system, they were so confident she didn't have covid, they let her into part of the ER that was off limits to positive covid people for her to be seen...

So... no. You didn't have the context though...


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 8, 2021)

It was state dependent but some states granted immunity for Health-care providers down to workers from civil to criminal suits.  Most know is New York due to the Nursing home debacle.
New York providers granted immunity from civil, criminal liability during pandemic​


> Once enacted into the law, the legislation will protect hospitals, nursing homes, administrators, board members, physicians, nurses and other providers from civil and criminal responsibility for decisions or omissions occurring from March 7, when the governor declared an emergency through its expiration.


----------



## 64K (Jul 8, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Normally I would agree with you, but I am from a small town, and the ER was relatively empty the night my mom went. Our small town didn't get hit that hard and we have a really big oversized hospital (relative to our area) that was built only about a decade or so ago. They had plenty here, in fact they only told her not to worry about her no taste, they let her into the part of the hospital where covid positive people are not supposed to be allowed. So they neglected not only the Covid test with a very specific (no taste) covid system, they were so confident she didn't have covid, they let her into part of the ER that was off limits to positive covid people for her to be seen...
> 
> So... no. You didn't have the context though...



They could have at least given her a Covid-19 test. Hell, in my city you could drive up to a stand at some pharmacies and someone would come out and test you for Covid at no charge. You didn't even need to get out of your car.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 8, 2021)

64K said:


> They could have at least given her a Covid-19 test. Hell, in my city you could drive up to a stand at some pharmacies and someone would come out and test you for Covid at no charge. You didn't even need to get out of your car.



this was fairly early on in the pandemic, I think tests were more scarce then. but still... they had some... and if someone is presenting with no taste and feeling ill... they probably shouldn't let you in part of the hospital that positive covid was not allowed in, to be extra cautious even if they believed it was something else... but that's just my two cents.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 8, 2021)

Oh look, just on schedule. The states with crappy vaccination rates are beginning to see rises in COVID19 cases. Arkansas has 36% vaccinated, Missouri is 39.4% vaccinated.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 8, 2021)

We are at 50% fully vax much higher than those 2 and we had a higher increase 30% with 34% increase in hospitalizations in the past 2 weeks. Delta variant making up 36% of those. One county reported Delta being 50% of new infections, previous month it only accounted for 5%.

States been tracking all these in the population.
B.1.1.7
B.1.351
P.1
B.1.617.2 incl. B.1.617.2.1 (AY.1) & B.1.617.2.2 (AY.2)
B.1.427 & B.1.429
P.2
B.1.525
B.1.526
B.1.617.1
B.1.617.3

With Delta getting the most news coverage but Epsilon accounting for more infections then all variants combined but not much coverage until recently. Mainly cause it hit hard in Winter were Delta is rising in Summer.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 9, 2021)

Oh, to be sure, Delta loves a party and places where people are mixing (inside - houses, transport, etc) are seeing massive community transmission. The UK is still presssing on toward opening up, despite the huge rise in cases (some hospitals up north are in code black - full). If we weren't so fast with the vaccination roll-out, we'd be in deep do-do. At the moment, the crap's just about tickling our toes. I'm double vaxxed with Pfizer so I'm not concerned.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Oh, to be sure, Delta loves a party and places where people are mixing (inside - houses, transport, etc) are seeing massive community transmission. The UK is still presssing on toward opening up, despite the huge rise in cases (some hospitals up north are in code black - full). If we weren't so fast with the vaccination roll-out, we'd be in deep do-do. At the moment, the crap's just about tickling our toes. I'm double vaxxed with Pfizer so I'm not concerned.



I think that is why they are re-opening back up though, they know most are vaxxed and life has to go on at some point.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 9, 2021)

AP: Pfizer to seek OK for 3rd vaccine dose; shots still protect​


> In August, Pfizer plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization of a third dose, he said.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> AP: Pfizer to seek OK for 3rd vaccine dose; shots still protect​




ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES BOYS YOUR NOT DONE YET LOL


----------



## 64K (Jul 9, 2021)

I read something on this a while back. I'm sure the boost in immunity will be welcome but I wonder at what point it will cause health problems to keep taking more and more vaccine.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 9, 2021)

64K said:


> I read something on this a while back. I'm sure the boost in immunity will be welcome but I wonder at what point it will cause health problems to keep taking more and more vaccine.



Its under "Emergency status" so expect liability immunity to be extended if its granted.

How many Jabs can a boxer take before he gets knocked out?.  If they start offering GPUs for it though (RX 6700XT or above) I might have to start visiting all lower 48s


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 9, 2021)

64K said:


> I read something on this a while back. I'm sure the boost in immunity will be welcome but I wonder at what point it will cause health problems to keep taking more and more vaccine.



People get annual flu jabs. It's no biggie, those jabs are revised annually to match new strains. 

Besides, discussing prolonged damage seems pointless when practically every processed commodity: petrol/gas (benzene vapours), furniture stuffing, overcooked meat, cigarettes, alcohol, nitrogen oxide pollution etc etc... has carcinogenic properties.

Modern life is a killer.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 9, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> People get annual flu jabs. It's no biggie, those jabs are revised annually to match new strains.
> 
> Besides, discussing prolonged damage seems pointless when practically every processed commodity: petrol/gas (benzene vapours), furniture stuffing, overcooked meat, cigarettes, alcohol, nitrogen oxide pollution etc etc... has carcinogenic properties.
> 
> Modern life is a killer.


Hi,
Flu jabs are tested a long time unlike the covid jabs


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 9, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Flu jabs are tested a long time unlike the covid jabs



They're made every year in anticpation of the next mutation:









						FDA is working on developing new technologies for making flu vaccines
					

Flu viruses constantly evolve. The flu vaccine you get is the year-round work of highly skilled microbiologists, epidemiologists, physicians and other experts.




					www.fda.gov
				






> flu viruses are constantly evolving. And the flu viruses that circulate causing disease in people, often change from one year to another. So, *every year, there is a need for a new flu vaccine*.



The Covid vaccines were fast-tracked using huge financial resources that conventional vaccines dont receive. The AZ vaccine delivery system was developed after SARS-I. It only required the viral shell to be made ready.


----------



## claes (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I think that is why they are re-opening back up though, they know most are vaxxed and *the economy* has to go on at some point.


FTFY — daily cases are back to where they were in January. I’m not sure that qualifies as “life going on.”


ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Flu jabs are tested a long time unlike the covid jabs


Not when you account for seasonality


the54thvoid said:


> The Covid vaccines were fast-tracked using huge financial resources that conventional vaccines dont receive. The AZ vaccine delivery system was developed after SARS-I. It only required the viral shell to be made ready.


To emphasize, “fast-track,” in the US, just means that it was prioritized on a long list of drugs to be approved by the FDA. The vaccines still went through all of the normal protocols and trials that are required of any drug, like the flu shot, but was “fast-tracked” because hundreds of thousands of people were dying


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

claes said:


> FTFY — daily cases are back to where they were in January. I’m not sure that qualifies as “life going on.”



you are taking it out of context though. daily cases sure, but not hospitalizations.  vaccines saved the day.  get your second shot is the name of the game.

and pfizer's third shot when that gets approved.


----------



## HTC (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> you are taking it out of context though. daily cases sure, but not hospitalizations.  vaccines saved the day.  get your second shot is the name of the game.
> 
> *and pfizer's third shot when that gets approved.*



While a 3rd shot may eventually be required, it seems more logical to me that we get as many people we can with 2 doses (or 1 dose, depending on the vaccine) WORLDWIDE in order to help deny further mutations that may appear: the longer the period without vaccines, the bigger the odds of new mutations and, if we're UNLUCKY, one of them MIGHT be a lot more resistant to the current vaccines, and that is something NOBODY wants.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

HTC said:


> While a 3rd shot may eventually be required, it seems more logical to me that we get as many people we can with 2 doses (or 1 dose, depending on the vaccine) WORLDWIDE in order to help deny further mutations that may appear: the longer the period without vaccines, the bigger the odds of new mutations and, if we're UNLUCKY, one of them MIGHT be a lot more resistant to the current vaccines, and that is something NOBODY wants.



the CDC and FDA just announced together in joint statement --- they told Pfizer no approval will be given for the third shot.


----------



## dirtyferret (Jul 9, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Modern life is a killer.



We have a problem in the USA were a large group of idiots believe a con man with six bankruptcies (and a seventh one coming soon) who can barely spell his own children's names over a guy who graduated first in class from Cornell medical school, a national leader in HIV, swine flu, and ebola research plus has been director of the NIAD for almost four decades.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dirtyferret said:


> We have a problem in the USA were a large group of idiots believe a con man with six bankruptcies (and a seventh one coming soon) who can barely spell his own children's names over a guy who graduated first in class from Cornell medical school, a national leader in HIV, swine flu, and ebola research plus has been director of the NIAD for almost four decades.



People from Cornell?  They can't even figure out how to cook beets right.  ~ Dwight Schrute  

On topic - I most likely will be getting my second shot soon...


----------



## 64K (Jul 9, 2021)

dirtyferret said:


> We have a problem in the USA were a large group of idiots believe a con man with six bankruptcies (and a seventh one coming soon) who can barely spell his own children's names over a guy who graduated first in class from Cornell medical school, a national leader in HIV, swine flu, and ebola research plus has been director of the NIAD for almost four decades.



What I keep seeing is that 25% of Americans say they won't be getting any vaccine for various reasons.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

64K said:


> What I keep seeing is that 25% of Americans say they won't be getting any vaccine for various reasons.



the best argument they make is when they say you can't compare apples to oranges, after a doctor says no vaccine in history has ever had symptoms long term, but no vaccine has ever used mrna either. so i don't think its fair to compare apples to oranges, and the FDA adding myocardia to the warning label 1 year after its initial mass use, didn't really help that argument any.

not saying I agree with them, but I do understand... that you can't compare apples to oranges. it really surprises me doctors keep saying that. there have also been reports that the spike proteins the mrna vaccine makes, some of them don't stick to your muscle like they should, very very tiny percentage escape into the blood stream, doctors say the liver takes care of those so no worry about it. 

but before they said it was never supposed to happen, the antibodies would go to the muscle and take care of ALL the spike proteins made.

the story changes. it scares people. i get it honestly.

i got my first shot of pfizer, but i am still scared to get my second one.


----------



## dirtyferret (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> i got my first shot of pfizer, but i am still scared to get my second one.



My wife and I both received our pfizer shots back in April with little issue.  Most of the people in my office (some around your age I would assume) also had their pfizer shots with no issues.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 9, 2021)

2nd Pfizer was a non-event. Wife had a wee rash but nothing more.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

I got Moderna, so no personal experience / anecdote to share about Pfizer.

Delta has shown that the 1st shot is no longer sufficient. The 2nd shot is necessary if you want to protect yourself against Delta. Probably bad news for J&J once again (who seemed to be betting on a single-shot regiment)... though I don't think J&J has really been tested vs Delta yet (Delta is pretty new).

Though 1-shot does stop severe illness / hospitalization. So its still better than nothing. But if we're aiming for herd immunity, we want to get "vaccinated enough" that we don't get sick anymore so that the virus has no chance to evolve at all.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I got Moderna, so no personal experience / anecdote to share about Pfizer.
> 
> Delta has shown that the 1st shot is no longer sufficient. The 2nd shot is necessary if you want to protect yourself against Delta. Probably bad news for J&J once again (who seemed to be betting on a single-shot regiment)... though I don't think J&J has really been tested vs Delta yet (Delta is pretty new).
> 
> Though 1-shot does stop severe illness / hospitalization. So its still better than nothing. But if we're aiming for herd immunity, we want to get "vaccinated enough" that we don't get sick anymore so that the virus has no chance to evolve at all.



I already linked it before, germany, france, and so on have all agreed that if you had covid and had symptoms - 1 shot of pfizer gives you more antibodies than someone with no covid and both shots of pfizer. so i am technically more protected than you right now.




the54thvoid said:


> 2nd Pfizer was a non-event. Wife had a wee rash but nothing more.



not sure if no one read my post or what, but I was saying long term symptoms... hence the apples and oranges reference... i understand short term its fine.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I already linked it before, germany, france, and so on have all agreed that if you had covid and had symptoms - 1 shot of pfizer gives you more antibodies than someone with no covid and both shots of pfizer. so i am technically more protected than you right now.



You're deviating from the largest scale trial (what hundreds-of-millions of Americans are doing to themselves) and basically experimenting upon yourself. I don't recommend it at all.

Antibody measurements are "indirect". They're not the kind of high-quality study that constitutes even a phase 3 trial (which is a placebo vs vaccine study). Different studies have different "quality", and you're purposefully choosing to believe in a low-quality study (indirect antibody measurements over like 50 people) and go against the results of the high-quality studies (adversarial placebo vs vaccine studies over tens-of-thousands of individuals).

I'd recommend you go through the trial that tens-of-thousands of individuals tested last year in the FDA Phase 3 trials, and the same trial that has been tested by hundreds-of-millions of Americans today. That is: finishing the 2-phase treatment exactly as tested with as little deviation as possible.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You're deviating from the largest scale trial (what hundreds-of-millions of Americans are doing to themselves) and basically experimenting upon yourself. I don't recommend it at all.
> 
> Antibody measurements are "indirect". They're not the kind of high-quality study that constitutes even a phase 3 trial (which is a placebo vs vaccine study). Different studies have different "quality", and you're purposefully choosing to believe in a low-quality study (indirect antibody measurements over like 50 people) and go against the results of the high-quality studies (adversarial placebo vs vaccine studies over tens-of-thousands of individuals).
> 
> I'd recommend you go through the trial that tens-of-thousands of individuals tested last year in the FDA Phase 3 trials, and the same trial that has been tested by hundreds-of-millions of Americans today. That is: finishing the 2-phase treatment exactly as tested with as little deviation as possible.



are you stating you are smarter than all of the scientists in Germany and France then? BioNTech the ones who developed this are in Germany... I am confident I can trust their recommendation for now. most studies actually show waiting longer than 3 weeks produced more antibodies than in those who got it at 3 weeks.  in the UK anyway.

so even if i get it in a couple weeks i should be better off than most people who listened to the early advice.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> are you stating you are smarter than all of the scientists in Germany and France then? BioNTech the ones who developed this are in Germany... I am confident I can trust their recommendation for now. most studies actually show waiting longer than 3 weeks produced more antibodies than in those who got it at 3 weeks.  in the UK anyway.
> 
> so even if i get it in a couple weeks i should be better off than most people who listened to the early advice.



I'm saying *you* are fundamentally misunderstanding the purpose of those studies, without passing judgement upon the study itself.

An antibody test would be closer to what happens at Phase 1 or Phase 2. Its not meant for large scale advice yet. Its a study to be done before a major practical study (a phase 3 study) is done. Studies to know whether or not a phase 3 trial should be conducted, because phase 3 style studies are very expensive.

You're taking evidence from (effectively) a phase 1 or phase 2 trial, and deciding to shortcut the rest of the process and decide its good enough for you already.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I'm saying *you* are fundamentally misunderstanding the purpose of those studies, without passing judgement upon the study itself.



I'm not, it's a supply issue for them, it doesn't change the fact they consider one shot safe in those who previously had symptoms with covid, if they didn't feel it was safe they wouldn't be telling them not to worry about second shot for now.  

Keep in mind, we are all going to need 3 shots eventually, its only a matter of time, if you can space it out long enough... probably is smartest.

Cause 3 shots won't be enough either. Not with people flying on planes not being required to be vaccinated, etc.  covid is here to stay. we will be on our 4th or 5th shot in a couple years.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm not, it's a supply issue for them, it doesn't change the fact they consider one shot safe in those who previously had symptoms with covid, if they didn't feel it was safe they wouldn't be telling them not to worry about second shot for now.
> 
> Keep in mind, we are all going to need 3 shots eventually, its only a matter of time, if you can space it out long enough... probably is smartest.
> 
> Cause 3 shots won't be enough either. Not with people flying on planes not being required to be vaccinated, etc.  covid is here to stay. we will be on our 4th or 5th shot in a couple years.



You live in the USA. We have plenty of vaccine. There's no supply issue. You can get your 2nd shot today from a variety of hospitals, pharmacies, or whatever. Maybe its a relevant discussion point for other countries, but you're not over there. You're here.

We're flooding with vaccine. So many anti-vaxxers are sitting around not taking it that its pissing me off (and I would support the export of it, because its not fair for us to be holding onto so many shots when other people in the world are waiting for the vaccine).


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> are you stating you are smarter than all of the scientists in Germany and France then? BioNTech the ones who developed this are in Germany... I am confident I can trust their recommendation for now. most studies actually show waiting longer than 3 weeks produced more antibodies than in those who got it at 3 weeks.  in the UK anyway.
> 
> *so even if i get it in a couple weeks i should be better off than most people who listened to the early advice.*


And that's the thing with Coronavirus, vaccines and biology, you could still get it worse, and it does not change the fact that as I said before, your natural/vaccine immunity theory goes down the toilet (to a certain degree) if you catch a variant that you had not caught previously, if you caught the original strain how predominant is that strain now in the US?  Because it no longer exists in the UK so really at the very least one question you should be asking yourself is how well would your natural immunity cope with the Delta variant?


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You live in the USA. We have plenty of vaccine. There's no supply issue. You can get your 2nd shot today from a variety of hospitals, pharmacies, or whatever.



Did you not read the studies I linked before from France and Germany? They said second shot can actually lower antibodies in people with previous covid 19 that had severe symptoms and had 1 shot of pfizer.

1 shot of pfizer is the sweet spot in those who specifically had covid with severe symptoms, thats what the latest study showed that i read out of germany/france. wasn't a fake website, was nature journal... so... and verified by several universities.

_Many people who’ve been infected with the coronavirus might be able to safely skip the second jab of any two-dose vaccine regimen, a growing number of studies suggest._


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Did you not read the studies I linked before from France and Germany? They shot second shot can actually lower antibodies in people with previous covid 19 that had severe symptoms and had 1 shot of pfizer.



Do you not understand that antibody measurements are *not a real test*, and only constitute a Phase 1 or Phase 2 style study?

Phase 3 is a *real* test. Placebo vs the Vaccine in a population that does not know if it has gotten the vaccine or placebo. The best of the best of tests. A lot of these "cheaper studies" are about convincing the government to give them money to actually conduct a Phase 3 test.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Do you not understand that antibody measurements are *not a real test*, and only constitute a Phase 1 or Phase 2 style study?



then why would these scientists say its safe??? 









						Is one vaccine dose enough if you’ve had COVID? What the science says
					

Research shows that a previous coronavirus infection plus one dose of vaccine provides powerful protection — but concerns linger.




					www.nature.com


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> then why would these scientists say its safe???
> 
> 
> 
> ...





> But scientists still don’t know whether one-jab programmes for the previously infected could leave some individuals with suboptimal protection. Nor is it clear that such programmes would be effective for all types of vaccine.



Your own link shows that the evidence isn't conclusive yet. There's enough evidence that maybe we should conduct a full scale test of the theory.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Your own link shows that the evidence isn't conclusive yet. There's enough evidence that maybe we should conduct a full scale test of the theory.



Indeed, I agree, and I am in the risk group for myocardia which is now on the warning label for Pfizer specifically after the second jab. I see no reason with wearing a mask, staying isolated, a little while longer to see what the new data shows. Especially with alternative studies, specifically the New England Journal of Medicine (from that same link) states the data shows I am mostly fine as is.

I have no problem getting second shot, but I also see no reason waiting a bit longer for it. I don't go anywhere anyway, and I won't be traveling without my second shot. If you think I am the problem, you are mistaken, its the people flying today, tomorrow, next week, in the thousands who refuse to get vaccinated yet fly anyway. (also I still wear KN95 mask in grocery store, etc) I am the only one left wearing masks mostly. but eh.

edit:  If I had not had severe covid, then I would not qualify for this new data and would get my second shot right now, just fyi.  but the science is leaning both ways on this one imo.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I have no problem getting second shot, but I also see no reason waiting a bit longer for it.



The problem with waiting for it, is that you've left the conditions of what the phase 3-trial of 30,000+ individuals tested.

The minute you start deviating from the big, expensive 30,000+ person test, is the minute you're on your own. You've changed the parameters of the treatment. You really don't want to do that unless you're forced. The 30,000 person test group is still being tested: we're still trying to figure out how long immunity lasts.

If you go off on your own, you don't have the mountain of evidence backing up your treatment anymore. You're just experimenting upon yourself... unnecessarily. There's plenty of vaccine here for you to complete the treatment and stay within the bounds of the largest research groups (Pfizer study of 30,000+ or Moderna study of 30,000+ people).


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The problem with waiting for it, is that you've left the conditions of what the phase 3-trial of 30,000+ individuals tested.
> 
> The minute you start deviating from the big, expensive 30,000+ person test, is the minute you're on your own. You've changed the parameters of the treatment. You really don't want to do that unless you're forced. The 30,000 person test group is still being tested: we're still trying to figure out how long immunity lasts.
> 
> If you go off on your own, you don't have the mountain of evidence backing up your treatment anymore. You're just experimenting upon yourself.



So all of Europe, U.K., and more I can't think of right now, no longer exists now? They are all doing longer than 3 week jabs... almost everyone I know overseas is getting it at 8-12 week marks.


_The findings from Hatziioannou and her colleagues also hint at the biological underpinnings of one jab’s effectiveness in exposed people. In the 12 months after participants were infected, their memory B cells had not been static. Instead, those cells spent the entire year evolving, which left them able to craft antibodies even more potent and versatile than those that they produced immediately after infection.

*Other studies corroborate that thinking, with some showing that one shot can spur the growth of antibodies and infection-fighting T cells alike. “We’re all seeing pretty much the same thing,” says John Wherry, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine in Philadelphia.* For people who have recovered from COVID-19, “the second shot doesn’t seem to do a whole lot”._

This is the scientific method... in bold.  Scientists in different regions of world, are verifying each others data and getting same results.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> This is the scientific method... in bold. Scientists in different regions of world, are verifying each others data and getting same results.



Look, we all know that 30ug of Pfizer is effective, while 100ug of Moderna is what was tested.

We're not suddenly going to cut down Moderna to 30ug *unless* we go through Phase 3 trials again. Note: cutting down to 30ug would effectively triple the amount of Moderna vaccine available (!!!) So this would be a big deal if we can prove it safe.

There's studies showing that Moderna is probably unnecessarily injecting us with a bit more vaccine than needed (and two shots of it nonetheless). And yet, we stick with 100ug. Do you know why?

-------

Despite the evidence that 100ug is *probably* too much, the smaller dose (say 50ug or 30ug) is not tested to a degree that satisfies the general scientific community. We really need to run through the big 30,000+ people tests to really be sure about how the darn thing works.

------

I'm sure there are all sorts of optimizations we can do to our vaccine distribution. But we should wait for *actual tests to be done*. And not just 2000-person or 50-person tests, I'm talking full scale proper tests. Not just "grabbing blood, extracting antibodies, and looking at it on a petri dish". I'm talking about real placebo (control) vs vaccine (experimental) group tests. Different levels of science have different levels of trust associated with it. I'm not saying your theory is wrong, but *without a doubt* I can say that your theory is *insufficiently tested*.

We only deploy large scale treatments to our population *after* a proper placebo vs treatment trial. That's the law, that's the scientifically agreed standard of "sufficient testing", that's our culture. Anything less is just evidence that's building up for a proper trial.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> We only deploy large scale treatments to our population *after* a proper placebo vs treatment trial. That's the law, that's the scientifically agreed standard of "sufficient testing", that's our culture. Anything less is just evidence that's building up for a proper trial.



I have no arguments with you on all that, also the CDC does say on their own website Pfizer is effective up to 6 weeks after first shot. Other countries say longer, but even if I wait a couple more weeks I still won't be at week 6 deadline yet, and I plan to get before then most likely. So if your saying I can't listen to the CDC's own 6 week recommendation...  ;p  

Also, regarding the studies. I don't think the big companies are interested in doing these studies, is there any proof that shows they are even looking at the one shot post severe covid and doing studies on it? I don't think they are even looking at large scale studies on it. I doubt we will ever have that data other than this small stuff, which all does seem to verify each other.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Also, regarding the studies. I don't think the big companies are interested in doing these studies, is there any proof that shows they are even looking at the one shot post severe covid and doing studies on it? I don't think they are even looking at large scale studies on it. I doubt we will ever have that data other than this small stuff, which all does seem to verify each other.



Johnson and Johnson explicitly developed a single-shot regiment to compete against the 2-shot regiments of Pfizer / Moderna. J&J probably would have had far higher efficacy if they actually did a 2-shot regiment instead.

Moderna is a startup (kinda sorta: they got $Billions but they're a relatively new player overall). They're clearly erring on the side of "more effective" compared to the other companies: favoring 2 shots and at much higher doses than Pfizer. I think their corporate plan is to beat everyone else on efficacy, so that's why they're testing in the way they're doing...


----------



## freeagent (Jul 9, 2021)

My first shot was Pfizer and my second shot was Moderna. A week later I feel pretty good. Nothing for the kids yet.. hoping they don’t have to keep paying the price and can go back to school when it’s time. The kids really got fucked in all of this. Not mine so much, because we were here with them. But lots of kids are waay behind. Not really interested in conspiracies. But I guess we will find out this fall…


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES BOYS YOUR NOT DONE YET LOL


It's likely going to turn into a seasonal flu situation with the variants, meaning we'll never be done because mankind is dumb.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The problem with waiting for it, is that you've left the conditions of what the phase 3-trial of 30,000+ individuals tested.
> 
> The minute you start deviating from the big, expensive 30,000+ person test, is the minute you're on your own. You've changed the parameters of the treatment. You really don't want to do that unless you're forced. The 30,000 person test group is still being tested: we're still trying to figure out how long immunity lasts.
> 
> If you go off on your own, you don't have the mountain of evidence backing up your treatment anymore. You're just experimenting upon yourself... unnecessarily. There's plenty of vaccine here for you to complete the treatment and stay within the bounds of the largest research groups (Pfizer study of 30,000+ or Moderna study of 30,000+ people).



Well hopefully they start testing more @ risk people who really need the help now that more information is out there.  The people with the highest IFR/CFR by age were given the short end of the stick the first time around.

They are going to do a trial for Delta variant


> Pfizer and BioNTech are in discussions with the US medicine regulator to finalise their clinical trial plans and expect to begin studies in August.



Also the 12 and under trials are just beginning


> Pfizer Inc said on Tuesday it will begin testing its COVID-19 vaccine in a larger group of children under age 12 after selecting a lower dose of the shot in an earlier stage of the trial.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 9, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Also the 12 and under trials are just beginning



Phase 3 trials are just beginning for Pfizer.

The whole process needed to be started over (back to Phase 1 / Phase 2) for young kids because 30ug on a 180lb adult male is completely different than 30ug on a 50lb 10-year old child. It looks like they've established safety and basic indicators of efficacy for their 10ug and 3ug doses for the age groups in question.

Looks like the 12-and-under group will be authorized in September, if the phase 3 trials go well. 10ug and 3ug are safe (Phase 1) and seem to be effective (Phase 2), so time for the full scale test.


----------



## Sithaer (Jul 9, 2021)

Not that its much but I will leave my few cents here from my mid European country. _'Hungary'_

We have multiple vaccines available, basically most of them.
My parents got Pfizer and they were and are okay now, some of my friends got Sinopharm and my grandparents got Pfizer or Moderna and they are also all good.

Personally I got Johnson&Johnson in late May along with a my old high school friend at the same doctor, we are both in the 30-32 age range.

I had a bit of a fever for 1 day and some minor upper arm/triceps pain but it wasn't a bother, my friend had no fever but had bad arm pain instead._ 'I do work out tho so idk if that helped with my arm or not'_
I was in the very low risk group as I'm fairly young at 32 and have no known health issues so I wasn't in a rush to get my vaccine. _'that and I'm not socially active, I'm a bad introvert who rarely goes anywhere with other ppl'_

Since the end of last week my goverment lifted some of the restrictions like now we don't have to wear a mask and can freely go to public places/shops/bus/restaurants and such except for big concerts and whatnot where you need the vaccine card thingy.
Supposedly the country is over 50+% vaccined at least with the first dose and thats why they lifted these restrictions.

Will see what happens later ofc but things are almost back to normal here for now, can see bunch of ppl all over the place like its all good.
There are some issues regarding getting the second shot of vaccine if the first one wasn't '_good enough'_ if it wa a different vaccine and also something against the third shot so I'm wondering whats gonna happen to ppl like me who got the 1 shot one by default. _'I mean issues on a goverment level'_


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 9, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It's likely going to turn into a seasonal flu situation with the variants, meaning we'll never be done because mankind is dumb.



Exactly. The mere fact they aren't requiring vaccine for flying on airplanes is proof in the pudding. Pathetic.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Exactly. The mere fact they aren't requiring vaccine for flying on airplanes is proof in the pudding. Pathetic.


However if they don't require proof of vaccine they do require a negative test, certainly in most of Europe, which would you think is the best solution?  The answer a lot of people seem to have is that they are equal, if they are equal then I would probably go with the test, simply because whilst I am absolutely pro vaccine I am also pro choice, remembering of course that a vaccinated individual can still carry and transmit the disease, just to a much lesser extent than those non vaccinated.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

Don't let the W.H.O be the downer in all this



> So, what we’re saying is once you’ve been fully vaccinated continue to play it safe because you could end up as part of a transmission chain. You may not actually be fully protected. *Sometimes the vaccines don’t work in people*


 Use your inner voice. Don't say that out loud.


> As we’re seeing, there are new variants emerging and we’ve been talking about the Delta all day today. You have to continue to be appropriately cautious. We’re still in a world that is full of this COVID virus and it’s a virus that is still evolving.





> As we have we been saying, and Paulina this is super important, *vaccine alone won’t stop the community transmission and we need to ensure that people follow the public health measures* that Dr Maria Van Kerkhove was speaking today. *People need to continue to use masks consistently, be in ventilated spaces, hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, the physical distance, avoid crowding.*


 6-Feet maybe more


> in general, where you have a high level of continuous community transmission. So, *people cannot feel safe just because they had the two doses*. They still need to protect themselves.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Use your inner voice. Don't say that out loud.



I mean, vaccines vary in efficacy from 50% (Sinopharm) to 95% (Pfizer 2nd dose), and everything in between (J&J, Sputnik V, Moderna, and soon Novavax and others... so many vaccines coming out). Yeah, it doesn't always work, but its better than nothing (and seems to be better than natural immunity, vs variants like Gamma aka P1 aka Brazil variant).

None of this is new. But in light of those facts, does the public policy discussion change at all?

No. Our best bet are vaccines, ideally the higher efficacy (Pfizer / Moderna) vaccines, but not everyone can get those. Get the vaccine that's most available to your location. Even in a vaccine rich country like the USA, something like J&J's single dose regiment is all that can be done practically (ex: a worker who doesn't have enough off time to get a 2nd dose: so Pfizer / Moderna is off the table due to the two-shot regiment). There's efficacy tradeoffs for choosing something like J&J, but its still better than nothing and prevents hospitalization.

We know that some variants (Gamma / P1) reinfect those who have been already infected. So the theory to "just infect everyone" is already dead on arrival.

We know that some variants (Delta) reduces the efficacy of vaccines. A high-reliability vaccine (ex: Pfizer / Moderna) still has plenty of "wiggle room" so to speak, dropping to maybe 80% down from 95%, so its still a highly effective measure. The lower-efficacy vaccines are open to debate and/or study. Its a worry for sure.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Use your inner voice. Don't say that out loud.


How about we not pretend there's a movement to not discuss aspects like that?  I hope that's not your insinuation.

Because there isn't.  What he said is factual, but it's usually imunocompromised groups that don't get immunity.  The ones that need it to work most.  Still the best thing for them to do is get it and hope.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> How about we not pretend there's a movement to not discuss aspects like that?  I hope that's not your insinuation.
> 
> Because there isn't.  What he said is factual, but it's usually imunocompromised groups that don't get immunity.  The ones that need it to work most.  Still the best thing for them to do is get it and hope.


It is factual but he was speaking in general terms.  Their is a part in the discussion where they don't know still how much infection there needs to be or how much is needed to stop it and is complicated by it evolving.


----------



## Caring1 (Jul 10, 2021)

64K said:


> What I keep seeing is that 25% of Americans say they won't be getting any vaccine for various reasons.


They should be excluded from any necessary medical treatment too, after all it's only a flu or a conspiracy right?


----------



## 64K (Jul 10, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> They should be excluded from any necessary medical treatment too, after all it's only a flu or a conspiracy right?



I've run across some people on a game site that are convinced the government generated the Covid-19 virus and Vaccine in order to inject people with tracking microchips through the vaccine injection. They don't call it a Pandemic. They call it a Plandemic. It's incredible what some people believe.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

That would be political suicide in my state giving the demos that are the lowest. Doubt any politician wants the blowback.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 10, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> They should be excluded from any necessary medical treatment too, after all it's only a flu or a conspiracy right?


I think they should be at the bottom of the queue for respirators etc should hospitals become overloaded again.  That's as far as I'll go.


----------



## claes (Jul 10, 2021)

I sort of get where y’all are coming from with the eugenics for plandemic types but I’m honestly surprised (probably shouldn’t be) by how many black and brown people who take the virus seriously are wary of the vaccine because of the lack of testing on PoC and a long history of state sanctioned medical experiments on them


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I think they should be at the bottom of the queue for respirators etc should hospitals become overloaded again.  That's as far as I'll go.



Like a priority privilege list 

Vaccinated 40 state avg as of July 6
Asian - 62%
Whites - 47% 
Hispanic - 39%
Blacks - 34%

Washington
Asian - 76%
Whites - 50% 
Blacks - 46%
Hispanic - 39%

California
Asian - 68%
Whites - 58% 
Blacks - 43%
Hispanic - 42%

New York
Asian - 79%
Whites - 52% 
Hispanic - 47%
Blacks - 36%


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 10, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> However if they don't require proof of vaccine they do require a negative test, certainly in most of Europe, which would you think is the best solution?  The answer a lot of people seem to have is that they are equal, if they are equal then I would probably go with the test, simply because whilst I am absolutely pro vaccine I am also pro choice, remembering of course that a vaccinated individual can still carry and transmit the disease, just to a much lesser extent than those non vaccinated.



negative tests don't matter... just ask the Delta variant how it got into the UK. vaccines required before any sort of travel between countries should be a 100% requirement. it's insane that is not a requirement, especially when the mutations in the future might possibly bring all economies to their knees again. if that happens again... I don't think even USA economy will survive.



Xzibit said:


> Like a priority privilege list
> 
> Vaccinated 40 state avg as of July 6
> Asian - 62%
> ...



how is it a privilege list? I am genuinely curious seeing as how the vaccine is readily available for months now to anyone who wants it here (USA as a whole)


----------



## ShiBDiB (Jul 10, 2021)

Nurse friend who works in an urgent care near me had a family of 4 come in tonight, all fully vaccinated, all tested positive for covid after traveling somewhere the delta variant was..

So things might get spicy again soon.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> how is it a privilege list? I am genuinely curious seeing as how the vaccine is readily available for months now to anyone who wants it here (USA as a whole)



How would it not be?  Person is sick and proposing a pecking order (seperating them by prior actions into less deserving group)


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> How would it not be?  Person is sick and proposing a pecking order (seperating them by prior actions into less deserving group)



Again I don't know what you mean, anyone who wants vaccine since May/early June, regardless of where you live in USA has been able to get it, at a grocery store, wal-mart, anywhere really. Old people got it first.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 10, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> Nurse friend who works in an urgent care near me had a family of 4 come in tonight, all fully vaccinated, all tested positive for covid after traveling somewhere the delta variant was..
> 
> So things might get spicy again soon.



yep, that really sucks. i'm really really glad my job is remote right now... just wish it was full time remote...


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Like a priority privilege list
> 
> Vaccinated 40 state avg as of July 6
> Asian - 62%
> ...


I'm unsure why race would change my opinion on that at all.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Again I don't know what you mean, anyone who wants vaccine since May/early June, regardless of where you live in USA has been able to get it, at a grocery store, wal-mart, anywhere really. Old people got it first.


The privilage part is just a response to @R-T-B.  The list is just to show that this idea of "anti-vax, conspiracy" label people want to put on the group entails far more then just "weird" people or what been tossed around on media.  Just look at the numbers.

If a vax person and a non vax person show up and the vax person get slotted in line for the respirator because he was vax its a privilage where the non-vax person has to wait until all the vax person go first.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> The privilage part is just a response to @R-T-B. The list is just to show that this idea of "anti-vax, conspiracy" label people want to put on the group entails far more then just "weird" people or what been tossed


I don't know why you think it's some big revelation that I would be surprised by that figure.  Those groups are often inherently distrustful of western medicine because it has at times in our history, been used against them.  That still does not apply in modern times to anyone capable of doing a minor amount of research beyond social media.  I maintain my stance:  unless you have a medical exemption, you get last slot for being dumb and further contributing to the spread of the virus.

This isn't news to me, and yet it changes nothing.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Exactly.  It's not a priviledge list, it's a choice list.



The vax is a choice. Being put in front of others is a *privilage*



> a special right, advantage, or immunity granted or available only to a particular person or group.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> The vax is a choice. Being put in front of others is a *privilage*


And you have the choice to get that priviledge.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> And you have the choice to get that priviledge.


Let me know how that goes then when you tell half of PoC they need to get in the back of the line for their respirator.


----------



## 64K (Jul 10, 2021)

There is no privilege list here in the USA. We're drowning in an ocean of vaccine. I was in the Publix a few weeks ago and near the pharmacy there was a lady there at a booth stopping customers and asking them if they would like to be vaccinated. Naturally it was the J&J vaccine since they couldn't guarantee a person would follow up for a booster shot. Anyone that wants to be vaccinated can easily get a vaccine for free.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 10, 2021)

64K said:


> There is no privilege list here in the USA. We're drowning in an ocean of vaccine. I was in the Publix a few weeks ago and near the pharmacy there was a lady there at a booth stopping customers and asking them if they would like to be vaccinated. Naturally it was the J&J vaccine since they couldn't guarantee a person would follow up for a booster shot. Anyone that wants to be vaccinated can easily get a vaccine for free.



Also, don't get the wrong idea of my previous posts, I AM VERY HAPPY I got my first shot of Pfizer. Covid almost killed me in November, that is ultimately what made the decision for me to get it.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Let me know how that goes then when you tell half of PoC they need to get in the back of the line for their respirator.


or a vaccine.

We can do this all day.  Your point is not what you want it to be.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> or a vaccine.
> 
> We can do this all day.  Your point is not what you want it to be.



You explained it yourself. Your displeased with those who don't get vax. I understand that but going as far as to wanting to deny them a respirator at their sickest point is just cruel.  Maybe you don't see it but the implications of that thought would disproportionately hit PoC more. I wouldn't care if they were vax or not. First come first served or severity of illness.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> You explained it yourself. Your displeased with those who don't get vax. I understand that but going as far as to wanting to deny them a respirator at their sickest point is just cruel.


If hospitals are overloaded and hard choices have to be made, no?

I don't mean just deny them it outright.  But they are contributing to the spread of the disease willingly if it reaches that point.  There's really no two ways about it, or any other way to say it.

It's a moot point anyways because we both know it'll never happen at least in the states.  Even I'll admit that.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 10, 2021)

Looking at viral evolution, blaming those in one country who choose not to be vaccinated ignores the problem that elsewhere there will be millions globally who remain unvaccinated. In those populations, the virus can replicate and mutate more readily, changing with more effective strains every year. This is known. It WILL happen; it's not a matter of winning. Covid19 is on track to become a seasonal illness that will always kill people. As the years tick by, we'll accept that, as we do with flu. 

The flipside is that we need to accept people's choices and move on. Yes, vaccinated people can still catch covid but it presents very little threat to that group. It also presents very little threat to the under 50's and _almost _zero threat to younger demographics. Truth is, vaccines were always going to be the only realistic way of coping with the pandemic, making it a seasonal bug. It'll take more lives than flu based on vaccination reluctance among so many people but in time, as they die, their peers will come round and realise the importance of getting a shot.

Ultimately, it's about personal choice and group responsibility. Ask yourself why you don't drive at 70mph through a school zone? You might kill kids. It's safer for them that you drive slow. Ask yourself why you don't get a vaccine but insist on seeing elderly friends or relatives. You have your freedoms but those freedoms impact others. It's a simple matter of ethics. Except, those ethics are mired in public opinion, politics, culture identity and a lack of understanding of science and efficacy.

TL;DR. All my immediate family and friends are vaxxed. We'll be fine. I can worry about other things now.


----------



## claes (Jul 10, 2021)

Yeah but black and brown people have _already_ been disproportionately affected by Covid. Y’all are missing the forest for the trees.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 10, 2021)

claes said:


> Yeah but black and brown people have _already_ been disproportionately affected by Covid. Y’all are missing the forest for the trees.



As have poor people and those in areas of deprivation (my country). So we ask why? Because in the UK, healthcare is universal, so why are poorer folk getting hit harder? I can't speak of US issues but I do understand the health issues of poverty and the very controversial associations with education, cheap fast-food, and generally poorer mortality (pre-covid) due to lifestyle choices*. It's not so much  a racial issue in the UK (probably because of the NHS) but we do know from the stats and surverys, PoC were vaccine averse for various reasons.

* I have to stress, poor physical health is a lifestyle choice (derived somewhat from parenting, peer group, and education) when your healthcare is free. So this argument can't be extrapolated to any other country where healthcare has a cost. FWIW, I work with health referral systems in exercise settings so I liaise with the medical profession frequently. I see the correlations of specific health issues with deprivation.


----------



## claes (Jul 10, 2021)

I mean sure, poverty = poorer health. I just meant that if you start prioritizing care for vaccinated patients in preference to non-vaccinated people then you risk further prejudice to already marginalized/impoverished communities.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

Its not really a risk its a given by the numbers. Depriving people of something they would otherwise receive especially in a dire medical setting is all kinds of wrong. Proposing things be taken away or being put at the back of the line or wait it out until others go first is a thought process that's never worked out well before and will contribute to further widen racial and ethic disparities.



the54thvoid said:


> As have poor people and those in areas of deprivation (my country). So we ask why? Because in the UK, healthcare is universal, so why are poorer folk getting hit harder? I can't speak of US issues but I do understand the health issues of poverty and the very controversial associations with education, cheap fast-food, and generally poorer mortality (pre-covid) due to lifestyle choices*. It's not so much  a racial issue in the UK (probably because of the NHS) but we do know from the stats and surverys, PoC were vaccine averse for various reasons.
> 
> * I have to stress, poor physical health is a lifestyle choice (derived somewhat from parenting, peer group, and education) when your healthcare is free. So this argument can't be extrapolated to any other country where healthcare has a cost. FWIW, I work with health referral systems in exercise settings so I liaise with the medical profession frequently. I see the correlations of specific health issues with deprivation.



Are you talking about the CRED report ?


> It cites deprivation, geography and differential exposure to key risk factors as the major drivers of health inequalities but fails to include ethnicity.


If you don't look at you'll never know your doing damage to it.

Wasn't it widely criticized or was that the other one ?


> We identified clear differences in outcome according to ethnic background. Black and Asian patients were respectively 30% and 49% more likely to die within 30 days of hospital admission compared to patients from white backgrounds of a similar age and baseline health. Black patients were 80% and Asian patients 54% more likely to be admitted to intensive care and need invasive mechanical ventilation.
> 
> When we accounted for the role played by underlying health conditions, lifestyle, and demographic factors, this did not alter the increased risk of death in Black and Asian populations.





> Covid-19 among people of black African descent in English hospitals was 3.5 times higher when compared to rates among white British people This disparity was not only limited to the black Africans as death rates among those of Pakistani and black Caribbean backgrounds were 2.7 and 1.7 higher respectively.



Even NHS staff


> Emerging data shows that people of BAME backgrounds have accounted for 63% of all Covid-19 related deaths among NHS staff, 64% of deaths of nursing and support staff and 95% of deaths of medical staff


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Its not really a risk its a given by the numbers. Depriving people of something they would otherwise receive especially in a dire medical setting is all kinds of wrong. Proposing things be taken away or being put at the back of the line or wait it out until others go first is a thought process that's never worked out well before and will contribute to further widen racial and ethic disparities.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



CRED? No idea what that is. As for NHS staff, in England, there are a large number of immigrant nurses. Ironic for our current xenophobic immigration policy. 

But why do BAME staff experience higher Covid issues? I'd like to know why. Using stats is fine but they don't explain mechanisms. Before vaccinations it could be explained by a high level of foreign staff. But this year, is it due to cultural aversion to vaccines?


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 10, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> CRED? No idea what that is. As for NHS staff, in England, there are a large number of immigrant nurses. Ironic for our current xenophobic immigration policy.
> 
> But why do BAME staff experience higher Covid issues? I'd like to know why. Using stats is fine but they don't explain mechanisms. Before vaccinations it could be explained by a high level of foreign staff. But this year, is it due to cultural aversion to vaccines?



CRED - Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities.  The blow back it got was due to its dismissiveness of minority treatment. Even suggesting Asians shouldn't feel bad because they live longer in relation to COVID-19 among other things.


----------



## claes (Jul 10, 2021)

Why are people of color more at risk of being affected by COVID-19?
					

Understand how underlying health problems, the places where people live and work, and racism can affect who becomes severely ill with COVID-19.




					www.mayoclinic.org


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 11, 2021)

In reality it's not just a minorities issue, as the54thVoid has said, it's pretty much all lower income families and individuals, certainly in the UK, these are the people who cannot afford to self isolate because their employers won't cover the costs and the state benefit they are entitled to won't put food on the table and pay the bills, therefore they put themselves and others within their communities at much higher risk, of course in terms of our minority communities many live in large multi generational homes that further increase the risk of community infection and there is much reliable research that shows when they do catch coronavirus there are at significantly higher risks for some of severe disease and death.


----------



## HTC (Jul 11, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 45302 active cases --- 7178 more --- 1025 more per day
- 845516 recovered --- 11664 more --- 1666 more per day
- 17156 fatalities --- 44 more --- 6 more per day
- 907974 confirmed infected --- 18886 more --- 2698 more per day

- 13854788 tests taken --- 521907 more --- 65238 more per day but was last updated July 8th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 9625694 vaccinated --- 565126 more --- last updated last Thursday but that corresponds to 5915601 1st doses + 3710093 2nd doses
- 672 hospitalized --- 105 more --- 15 more per day
- 153 in ICU --- 25 more --- 4 more per day

The main report wasn't published yesterday, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities increased VS last week: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 15th consecutive week. The R number *increased* to 1.19 on average. Roughly 58.8% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 36.8% have received both doses. We've also crossed 900K infected this week.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 11, 2021)

Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection
					

Simultaneous infections are rare but can happen, particularly in people yet to be vaccinated, warn experts.



					www.bbc.com
				




two variants in one person... possibility of more likelihood of death... the lady was old and had no vaccine though... so not sure this will amount to anything.  something to def keep an eye on though... I wonder what getting the Delta and Delta+ variant at the same time would look like in a double vaccinated person...


----------



## Ahhzz (Jul 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection
> 
> 
> Simultaneous infections are rare but can happen, particularly in people yet to be vaccinated, warn experts.
> ...


90 year old woman should have been early in the vaccination path. Any information why she wasn't?


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 12, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> 90 year old woman should have been early in the vaccination path. Any information why she wasn't?



it was in march 2021, and belgium. not sure if they had vaccine access yet then.


----------



## Ahhzz (Jul 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> it was in march 2021, and belgium. not sure if they had vaccine access yet then.


wow... I had no idea..... 








						Your all-in-one guide to Belgium’s  coronavirus vaccine rollout
					

Officials say all adults can get their first shot by July 11 if they want it — barring no further setbacks, that is.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## claes (Jul 12, 2021)

Yeah — if you aren’t in one of our first class nations then vaccines are pretty hard to come by. Early buyers cleaned out the market and are, for the most part, just sitting on vaccines that might go unused in this point


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 12, 2021)

claes said:


> Yeah — if you aren’t in one of our first class nations then vaccines are pretty hard to come by. Early buyers cleaned out the market and are, for the most part, just sitting on vaccines that might go unused in this point



yep, it's really weird we don't have better logistics in place... I feel like there are plenty of vaccines sitting around... there should have been a policy in place that stated, when no one is getting shots anymore you ship 90% of the supply back to Y location, then when all gathered Pfizer/Moderna ship in mass to areas that need it.

edit:  how do these people in power make six figure salaries again? I find it really odd... LOL


----------



## Ahhzz (Jul 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> yep, it's really weird we don't have better logistics in place... I feel like there are plenty of vaccines sitting around... there should have been a policy in place that stated, when no one is getting shots anymore you ship 90% of the supply back to Y location, then when all gathered Pfizer/Moderna ship in mass to areas that need it.


Ah, but that assumes that humans aren't selfish. the last few years have reinforced that fallacy in my mind over and over....


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 12, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> Ah, but that assumes that humans aren't selfish. the last few years have reinforced that fallacy in my mind over and over....



I disagree with this, I think it's more lazy bureaucratic oversight more than anything.


----------



## Ahhzz (Jul 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I disagree with this, I think it's more lazy bureaucratic oversight more than anything.


either way, it's sad...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2021)

Anyone wanna guess what the new R0 is of Delta?

COVID19 was originally an R0 of 3-ish. Alpha was over 50% more transmissible, and Delta is 50% more transmissible than that. Are we really looking at R0 of 6 to 8? If that's the case, then we'll need 85ish% effective vaccination rates to prevent the exponential growth of Delta. Not 85% vaccinated, but "effective" vaccinated (because the mRNA vaccines are only 80% effective at preventing transmission IIRC).

As we can see, that's a problem for herd immunity: it seems like Delta has removed herd immunity as an option. Fortunately, Plan B is "get vaccinated so that you don't go into the hospital" (which still seems to work: vaccinations prevent something like 90%+ of hospitalizations and deaths). So either way, vaccinations are our answer, but we may not be able to stop the next wave. Depending of course, on how bad R0 of Delta really is (no one really can test that until after-the-fact).

Assuming we can reach 70%ish effective vaccination rates, we're good for up to R0 of 3.33 or so. By current estimates, I'm pretty sure that Delta is beyond R0 of 3.33, though how much so is up to speculation.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> yep, it's really weird we don't have better logistics in place... I feel like there are plenty of vaccines sitting around... there should have been a policy in place that stated, when no one is getting shots anymore you ship 90% of the supply back to Y location, then when all gathered Pfizer/Moderna ship in mass to areas that need it.
> 
> edit:  how do these people in power make six figure salaries again? I find it really odd... LOL



That's less efficient than "not shipping vaccines from the factory".

If you have a supply chain from A -> B -> C -> D, where A is making say 1-million vaccines a week, B is a hub receiving 100,000 vaccines a week, C is a hub receiving 10,000 vaccines a week, and D is your final pharmacy or whatever receiving 1000 vaccines a week (A distributes the 1-million vaccines to 10 states, the 10 states distributes the vaccines to 100 warehouses, and the 100 warehouses distributes the vaccines to 1000 pharmacies), then there's no point shipping things backwards.

You instead, just redirect A to ship things to a new location. Furthermore, the supply chains do not work in reverse: its very easy to *open* a pallet, but it takes extremely specialized equipment to package a pallet. Furthermore, A has quality controls ensuring that the temperature of all vaccines stayed at the -80C or -30C temperatures across the supply chain.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 13, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Plan B is "get vaccinated so that you don't go into the hospital" (which still seems to work: vaccinations prevent something like 90%+ of hospitalizations and deaths).


I said this months ago.  PCR tests aren't worth crap on airplanes/international travel, the virus sneaks in anyway, and since nation states are too dumb to realize this, its only logical to conclude covid will never end.



dragontamer5788 said:


> That's less efficient than "not shipping vaccines from the factory".
> 
> If you have a supply chain from A -> B -> C -> D, where A is making say 1-million vaccines a week, B is a hub receiving 100,000 vaccines a week, C is a hub receiving 10,000 vaccines a week, and D is your final pharmacy or whatever receiving 1000 vaccines a week (A distributes the 1-million vaccines to 10 states, the 10 states distributes the vaccines to 100 warehouses, and the 100 warehouses distributes the vaccines to 1000 pharmacies), then there's no point shipping things backwards.
> 
> You instead, just redirect A to ship things to a new location. Furthermore, the supply chains do not work in reverse: its very easy to *open* a pallet, but it takes extremely specialized equipment to package a pallet. Furthermore, A has quality controls ensuring that the temperature of all vaccines stayed at the -80C or -30C temperatures across the supply chain.



seriously, you already spent 6 trillion, can't spend 1 billion more in shipping costs?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> seriously, you already spent 6 trillion, can't spend 1 billion more in shipping costs?












Palletizer machines exist in "A", the factory. Intermediate warehouses, such as "B and C" only have forklifts: they are only designed to *move* pallets (and maybe C just opens pallets since D (pharmacies) don't use enough vaccine to warrant a full pallet delivery).

Your proposal is to somehow "magically" give palletizer machines to D: the pharmacies. Unfortunately, logistics just doesn't work like that. Palletizer machines cost millions of dollars and are only efficient in one direction (that is: packaging things at the factory when all those boxes are in order, and are inefficient at packaging everywhere else). Furthermore: we can't just deploy palletizer machines everywhere: they need to be *temperature controlled* palletizer machines because these vaccines go bad once they leave -80C or -30C temperatures.

Furthermore: D (pharmacies) *don't have -30C* refrigerators. They're likely being shipped out with dry-ice which expires in a few weeks. There's literally not enough dry ice to even make the return trip to the factory.

-------------

There's no way to reasonably expect for pharmacies to return the vaccines under the temperature conditions + packaging conditions needed for mass logistics (that is: in pallets at guaranteed temperatures of -80C). No amount of money can solve the literally impossible request. Pharmacies don't have the space for palletizer machines, they don't have the staff who understand how to work, maintain, or configure them. They don't have the temperature controls, they don't have anything at all.

Once distributed, the vaccines stay at the endpoint. Logistics is NOT an easy problem at all.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 13, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Your proposal is to somehow "magically" give palletizer machines to D: the pharmacies.



the leftover vaccines probably aren't enough to require that machine for your average pharmacy. should be a simple matter of frozen trucks picking up supplies, setting their internal temp to -16 inside the truck storage (which is possible, they do it with other frozen goods on certain specialized semi's) 

then that semi can travel to capital city airport where they are all gathered together and flown somewhere overnight. 

-80 celsius is an outdated notion. Pfizer already announced a long time ago they can be stored for 1 month at -16 or so just like moderna.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 13, 2021)

Washington Post's COVID19 tracker. Last time I posted, only two states seemed to have dramatic swings upwards. Now the top 5 states all look like they've swung up in COVID19 cases (probably Delta). There's an average of +105% cases across the country: but most states remain safely under 10 cases/day per 100,000 residents (USA's average remains at 7). Nothing to worry about yet, but clearly a disturbing trend.

We know the pipeline at this point: cases turn into hospitalizations, hospitalizations turn into deaths, with a couple weeks of delay. However, we have large sections of our population vaccinated (although less so for these states: Arkansas is still over 30% vaccinated), which should cut down the death / hospitalization rates by a good chunk. How bad this next wave is going to be is anyone's guess... but its clear that the more vaccine your fellow citizens have taken in your area, the safer you'll be.

Anyone who hasn't taken the vaccine (and I know there's lots of you!!!), here's your chance to get ahead of the wave. Delta hasn't really begun to spread yet, and there's plenty of vaccines available all around the country. It takes over a month before the vaccine fully kicks in however. But... even partial vaccination will help you out in case the "Delta" wave comes to your neighborhood.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 14, 2021)

I'm actually getting my second shot tomorrow. Here is to hoping I don't get myocardia, but myocardia is better than dying I suppose.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 14, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm actually getting my second shot tomorrow. Here is to hoping I don't get myocardia, but myocardia is better than dying I suppose.


FWIW, I suffer from a heart condition (Wolf Parkinsons White) and I was told no question, still get the vaccine, and both of them.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 14, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> FWIW, I suffer from a hearth condition (Wolf Parkinsons White) and I was told no question, still get the vaccine, and both of them.



Yeah, I am not to worried about it anymore. Mainly doing it because Covid almost killed me as I mentioned before in November. Fear is powerful, that is only reason it took me so long... for both shots. lol

I'm ready now though and I am within the 6 weeks the CDC still says the second shot is effective, so it's all good.


----------



## 64K (Jul 14, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm actually getting my second shot tomorrow. Here is to hoping I don't get myocardia, but myocardia is better than dying I suppose.



The chances of myocardia are rare from what I've read. There have been around 1,000 cases reported but compared to the hundreds of millions of vaccinated people the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor of being fine.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 14, 2021)

64K said:


> The chances of myocardia are rare from what I've read. There have been around 1,000 cases reported but compared to the hundreds of millions of vaccinated people the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor of being fine.



yep, and I believe those 1000 people are just given a beta blocker I believe to treat it? can't remember, but I think i read that.  turns out I already take a beta blocker... so I am sitting good. lol


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 15, 2021)

In my state, confirmed cases has climbed above +100 / day, and %Positive is now above 1%. Hospitalizations hit 97 (just below 100) a couple of weeks ago, but have slightly ticked up since then to 132 hospitalizations.

Despite being one of the most vaccinated states in the USA, we're still seeing an uptick in cases around here. Seems like Delta is pretty serious. Again: these numbers are still superb, nothing to "fear" quite yet. What worries me is the *trend*. And a big question is how will the worse-vaccinated states fare in the next few weeks?


----------



## HTC (Jul 15, 2021)

Portugal has reached 60% with 1st dose and is @ 39.9% with full vaccination, and yet we're in the middle of a 4th wave, with 3.5K to 4K+ new daily cases (the equivalent of 112K to 128K+ new daily cases in USA, when accounting for population difference).

Thankfully, our daily death toll is STILL in single digit, though it has been increasing these last few weeks. Also, during the 1st time we had such high new daily case numbers, we had WAY HIGHER hospitalized AND ICU numbers than we do now: 3 to 4 times more, back then.

A testament to the vaccines efficacy in protecting those most vulnerable.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 15, 2021)

TWP: WHO clarifies details of early covid patients in Wuhan after errors in virus report​


> The agency confirmed that the earliest official case, Patient S01, was a 41-year-old man, with virus genome sequences EPI_ISL_403930, MT019531, and GWHABKH00000001 in various databases. The report had listed a different sequence, belonging to a 61-year-old man, which Jasarevic called an editing error.
> 
> Jasarevic said the WHO is still looking into why the official China National Genomics Data Center (NGDC) database says Patient S01 began to exhibit symptoms on Dec. 16, 2019, a week later than the Dec. 8 onset recorded in the WHO report.
> 
> ...



Obvi


> After the report was published, even the WHO’s director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, expressed concern about China’s level of transparency and called for a more thorough investigation.



Sigh


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 15, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> TWP: WHO clarifies details of early covid patients in Wuhan after errors in virus report​
> 
> Obvi
> 
> ...



the fact China really hasn't been transparent from the beginning, and basically silenced some Doctors early on... and now new reports the military was doing side research at the Wuhan Lab... it all smells like rotten fish to me.


----------



## Caring1 (Jul 16, 2021)

Here we go again, ignoring the fact cases existed prior to the Wuhan outbreak in a finger pointing exercise.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> Here we go again, ignoring the fact cases existed prior to the Wuhan outbreak in a finger pointing exercise.



weren't those cases still in China though? I so confuse.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 16, 2021)

Again, the same point being brought up....

Of course the virus was in Wuhan before it was reported. I've already mentioned the logical necessity that the virus had to have been causing illness for a problem to be noticed. And those first cases could go back years. China's secrecy is obvious. They dropped the ball on a new virus and let it slip through their fingers. Big, awesome, infallible China (sarcasm there, btw) made a huge mistake and couldn't stop it spreading. Their attempts to muddy the water are to suppress the extent to which it was already in the community killing people. But once the news was out, they went batshit (ha ha) authoritarian crazy.

Now, for some reflective reading, here's a piece from 2015, so it's not a Covid-19 response article.









						Inside America's secretive biolabs
					

Investigation reveals hundreds of accidents, safety violations and near misses put people at risk



					eu.usatoday.com
				




Yup, American bio-labs have been leaking biohazards for years. And there's scant oversight over these places.

Here's a quote:



> At the high-containment labs identified by USA TODAY, experiments are underway involving drug-resistant tuberculosis, exotic strains of flu, the *SARS* and MERS viruses, plague, anthrax, botulism, ricin and the Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever viruses, according to interviews and more than *20,000 pages of internal lab safety records and incident reports* obtained from labs across the country.



There's an awful lot of pot-kettle-black stuff going on.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Again, the same point being brought up....
> 
> Of course the virus was in Wuhan before it was reported. I've already mentioned the logical necessity that the virus had to have been causing illness for a problem to be noticed. And those first cases could go back years. China's secrecy is obvious. They dropped the ball on a new virus and let it slip through their fingers. Big, awesome, infallible China (sarcasm there, btw) made a huge mistake and couldn't stop it spreading. Their attempts to muddy the water are to suppress the extent to which it was already in the community killing people. But once the news was out, they went batshit (ha ha) authoritarian crazy.
> 
> ...



perhaps its time a new politician steps up to the plate in 2024, running on the platform of shutting all these labs down worldwide, since apparently the ones running it simply can't be trusted anymore.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jul 16, 2021)

29 local cases today and three imported, as Taiwan continues to split hair between "imported" and local cases.
Also four deaths, the lowest number in a while. There has been lower case counts, but then again, it doesn't mean much as not that much testing is being done.








						Taiwan reports 29 local COVID cases, 4 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-07-16 14:31:00
					

Taiwan reports 4 deaths, raising total COVID death toll to 763 | 2021-07-16 14:31:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




In related news.








						Taipei cop fines couple for drinking water in car | Taiwan News | 2021-07-16 16:56:00
					

Couple faces fines of up to NT$15,000 each for removing their masks while inside own car | 2021-07-16 16:56:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				











						Taipei bus driver diagnosed with COVID after working 3 days | Taiwan News | 2021-07-16 18:07:00
					

Driver works on bus line that services area between Beitou and Wanhua districts | 2021-07-16 18:07:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## HTC (Jul 16, 2021)

We're having a rather high number of new daily cases ranging from 3K to 4K per day, but fatalities are still in single digits ... barely: while hospitalized is considered a high number, it's actually quite manageable and the same can be said about ICU.

Our risk matrix has the R number @ 1.13, but it's down from last week's 1.19:




355.5 cases per 100K inhabitants, but 366.7 without factoring in Azores and Madeira archipelagos.

On a more personal note, i got my vaccine's 2nd dose today: YAY.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

HTC said:


> We're having a rather high number of new daily cases ranging from 3K to 4K per day, but fatalities are still in single digits ... barely: while hospitalized is considered a high number, it's actually quite manageable and the same can be said about ICU.
> 
> Our risk matrix has the R number @ 1.13, but it's down from last week's 1.19:
> 
> ...



I couldn't find transportation, so my second shot is delayed until Monday.  Congrats mate! I am looking forward to mine.


----------



## HTC (Jul 16, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I couldn't find transportation, so my second shot is delayed until Monday.  *Congrats mate!* I am looking forward to mine.



Thanks.

I must say: Portugal is doing a FANTASTIC JOB with it's vaccination efforts.

Though it hasn't always been "smooth sailing" and there have been hectic situations outside vaccination centers here and there, as a whole, Portugal is vaccinating it's people @ a VERY FAST pace, having surpassed 60% with 1st dose only, and 40% with fully vaccinated.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 16, 2021)

What is concerning is these counties in my state that have full vax rates 65yr+ @ 85% & 12yr+ @ 76%. That are experiencing surges. Some thinking of going back to stricter mandates soon.


> As of July 7, a total of 10,430 post-vaccination cases identified.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> What is concerning is these counties in my state that have full vax rates 65yr+ @ 85% & 12yr+ @ 76%. That are experiencing surges. Some thinking of going back to stricter mandates soon.



yeah but I thought only like 0.5% of those fully vaccinated are actually going to hospital?


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 16, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> yeah but I thought only like 0.5% of those fully vaccinated are actually going to hospital?



I would hope its low



> July 14, 2021 14,365 post-vaccination cases have been identified.


In a week it jump almost 40%


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Jul 16, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Again, the same point being brought up....
> 
> Of course the virus was in Wuhan before it was reported. I've already mentioned the logical necessity that the virus had to have been causing illness for a problem to be noticed. And those first cases could go back years. China's secrecy is obvious. They dropped the ball on a new virus and let it slip through their fingers. Big, awesome, infallible China (sarcasm there, btw) made a huge mistake and couldn't stop it spreading. Their attempts to muddy the water are to suppress the extent to which it was already in the community killing people. But once the news was out, they went batshit (ha ha) authoritarian crazy.
> 
> ...


Yeah, and I'm less inclined to believe this was some man-made virus created for bio-weapons experimentation. China screwed up, that much is certain, but trying to hold them accountable for something that can happen in any other country and making it a political issue is just silly and helps nobody. 
I'll never understand some of the things that occurred with China following the conclusion of WW-II. It is unfortunate that they became entangled with & caught between communism & capitalism.


----------



## claes (Jul 16, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> it most likely was a lab accident


Based on what?

Also, OT/wrong thread:


			https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

covid is fairly simple imo, get both your jabs of mRNA, all the other vaccines need to go, and move on with life.  everyone I know has done that, and everything seems to be going great for them.


----------



## HTC (Jul 18, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 51771 active cases --- 6469 more --- 924 more per day
- 861707 recovered --- 16191 more --- 2313 more per day
- 17207 fatalities --- 51 more --- 7 more per day
- 930685 confirmed infected --- 22711 more --- 3244 more per day

- 14366687 tests taken --- 511899 more --- 63987 more per day but was last updated July 16th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 10425466 vaccinated --- 799772 more --- last updated last today but that corresponds to 6252238 1st doses + 4173228 2nd doses
- 805 hospitalized --- 133 more --- 19 more per day
- 176 in ICU --- 23 more --- 3 more per day

Week fatalities increased VS last week: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 16th consecutive week but it's getting ever closer to double digits. The R number *decreased* to 1.12 on average. Roughly 62% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 41% are fully vaccinated.


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## 64K (Jul 18, 2021)

The new cases keep going up in my county. I expect a city-wide shut down if this keeps up.


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## HTC (Jul 18, 2021)

64K said:


> The new cases keep going up in my county. I expect a city-wide shut down if this keeps up.



How far along is your county's vaccinations effort?


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## 64K (Jul 18, 2021)

HTC said:


> How far along is your county's vaccinations effort?



Unfortunately there are only 50% fully vaccinated.


----------



## HTC (Jul 18, 2021)

64K said:


> Unfortunately there are only 50% fully vaccinated.



Better than what we currently have in Portugal. Here, those most vulnerable have almost all been fully vaccinated by now and that is of great help in keeping the hospitalized / ICU numbers in check yet, despite this, they are still increasing slightly.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 20, 2021)

Clearly this Delta-variant is becoming a bigger and bigger problem.

A few weeks ago, maybe 3 states had an issue. Last week, maybe 5-states had an issue. I'm now seeing exponential-like rises in case# across maybe the top 10-states now (Florida through Utah, plus Virgin Islands which isn't a state). None of these numbers compare with last year's surge yet, but the *trend* is worrying. Things are clearly on a dangerous trend if this pattern continues: we know it takes over a month before vaccination fully kicks in, and it takes a month before lockdowns seem to have an effect on a trend.

Staying on top of a trend before things get bad is the #1 tool we have. We've seen these rises before: its hard to stop the trend once it gets momentum.

Data is from the Washington Post. I've taken a screenshot of the entire chart they have: you can see that across the country, virtually all COVID19 numbers are up. But the ones that are up the most are the states with worse vaccination numbers.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 20, 2021)

Hmmmmm... I don't know if I fully agree with what Washington Post is publishing here. But its an interesting analysis perspective. Its not really that sophisticated: they just took the case-rate of Missouri, removed 85% of the vaccinated population from the statistics and then calculated the remainder as the "risk to the unvaccinated population".

Vaccines are over 90% effective (even vs Delta variant), but that remaining 10% still needs to be factored in somehow. Wash-Po assumes 85% effectiveness arbitrarily ("Steelman" argument: assume a weaker vaccine so that the graph above is in favor of their debate opponent).

Any thoughts on this argument / graph that Wash-Po is pushing? Or does anyone know where a more rigorous study is being done? All in all, I don't expect reporters to be statistics experts, so I'd rather see this sort of analysis from some kind of public health university (ex: Johns Hopkins) rather than sourced from reporters.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/unvaccinated-case-rate-delta-surge/?itid=hp_pandemic
		




> Methodology​The Post adjusted coronavirus rates for cases, deaths and hospitalization over time by combining CDC data on cases, hospitalizations and vaccinations. The Post used a rolling seven-day average of daily cases, deaths and hospitalization. For vaccinations, The Post used the number of people who had received at least one shot as of each date.
> 
> For events like coronavirus infection, rates are usually calculated by dividing the number of cases by the number of people in the population. For example, if there are 12 cases among a population of 100 people, the rate would be 12 people per 100. The Post reduced the denominator to exclude most vaccinated people. So if 20 people got vaccinated, that would mean there were 12 cases out of the remaining 80 unvaccinated people, for an adjusted rate of 15 cases per 100 people.
> 
> ...



This methodology is clearly very simple. But... I'm no statistician, and certainly no health policy expert. I immediately recognize how to do it, but I guess I'm just wondering if there's any blind-spots / corner cases where this sort of thing can potentially lead to misleading statistics.

But if this methodology holds true, then the unvaccinated portion of the USA is facing a crisis *today* as dangerous as the January / February surge this year... at least for some states.

EDIT: I probably should post the "USA Average" graph.





So on the average, the USA (even the unvaccinated portion) is doing okay. The issue is that Florida, Missouri, and some other states have a fresh "July wave" of COVID19 coming upon them. It remains a localized phenomenon... but they're still part of the country and worth discussion.


----------



## Jacky_BEL (Jul 21, 2021)

Article Dutch newspaper "de Volkskrant"

There are growing concerns in different countries about the delta variant (Israel , India and now the Netherlands)

Virologist are finding people that have been previously infected by Covid-19 and have recovered , and subsequently have been fully vaccinated , who are still getting infected with the new delta variant.
People are getting sick and possibly even transmitting the delta variant, because these people are thinking they just have a common cold.

So, people thinking that they are safe because they had their two shots , and go out to party like there is no tomorrow, this scenario now becomes a real danger for people not yet vaccinated.
Virologist are urging to keep existing measures in place, and to keep testing everybody for Covid, even fully vaccinated people.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 21, 2021)

Jacky_BEL said:


> Article Dutch newspaper "de Volkskrant"
> 
> There are growing concerns in different countries about the delta variant (Israel , India and now the Netherlands)
> 
> ...



Covid is here to stay and will mutate forever imo. It's only a matter of time before it makes the 1919 Flu pandemic look like child's play. I give it two years before this happens though. it will take time.  but humans have already proven they are incapable of being smart.

all plane travel should have been shut down last year for a solid 3-4 months. instead, everyone half assed it. it's never going to end now. only way it ends now, is if it mutates so bad it literally brutally destroys everything in its path and you get 50+ million dead. that's what it will take for the airlines to shut down for x amount of months.  sad, but that's just how humans work.

we are capable of so much, yet at end of day... so little.


----------



## Jacky_BEL (Jul 21, 2021)

In Belgium we had the story of people on holiday in Spain, testing positive for Covid, breaking off the holiday and returning home on a flight just as if it is the normal thing to do.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 21, 2021)

Jacky_BEL said:


> In Belgium we had the story of people on holiday in Spain, testing positive for Covid, breaking off the holiday and returning home on a flight just as if it is the normal thing to do.



sadly there are a lot of terrible stories like this. I just read this one today:









						Indonesian Covid-positive man disguises himself as wife on Citilink flight in order to fly
					

An Indonesian man is reportedly facing arrest after wearing a niqab in order to board a flight.




					www.cnn.com
				




covid positive, disguised himself as his wife, so he could fly.... yeah... it's never going to end folks.... its just depressing at this point.


for those wondering, we did in fact spend 5.7 trillion dollars on Covid in USA.  lol 









						Partisan fight brews as forecaster warns U.S. could hit debt limit by fall
					

The U.S. Treasury Department is projected to exhaust its borrowing authority in October or November, the Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday, as a partisan fight over raising the nation's debt ceiling erupted in Congress.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## TheLostSwede (Jul 22, 2021)

33 cases and 4 deaths.
Deaths are still very high in relation to cases.








						Taiwan reports 30 local COVID cases, 4 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-07-22 14:35:00
					

30 COVID cases snaps Taiwan's streak of 5 days with fewer than 20 local infections | 2021-07-22 14:35:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## 64K (Jul 22, 2021)

People do dumb things like last Spring Break they were all crowded together and most weren't wearing masks. The masks don't protect you from Covid. They protect other people around you if you are carrying Covid but only get a minor case of it. A lot of people in my city don't even wear a mask anymore. That's probably why the new cases went way up.








Spring Break 2021: College students return to beaches amid pandemic
Visit


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 23, 2021)

Pfizer vaccine second dose has ‘sweet spot’ after eight weeks, UK scientists say
					

Longer schedule led to more Covid antibodies and higher proportion of helper T-cells, supporting immune memory – researchers




					www.theguardian.com
				




I'm glad I waited to get my second shot at 8 weeks apart, just as I said weeks ago when France and Germany confirmed this.

I'm going to better off than those who got the shot after 3-4 weeks.   

CDC makes me lulz, they probably won't even confirm this for another year cause they work so slow.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 23, 2021)

64K said:


> People do dumb things like last Spring Break they were all crowded together and most weren't wearing masks. The masks don't protect you from Covid. They protect other people around you if you are carrying Covid but only get a minor case of it. A lot of people in my city don't even wear a mask anymore. That's probably why the new cases went way up.



N95 masks do protect you from it. Be careful with your wording lad.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 23, 2021)

No worries boys, in the Netherlands, we know how to make policy.

Look here. Government only needed one press conference to fuck it up so badly, we lost our Summer holidays. They figured 'oh, the first jabs have gone out, why not reopen *nightclubs and bars* again, matter of fact, while we're at it, let's just open everything! Including party-inducing statements from several members of gov. alongside it. Oh yeah, they did mention to us 'but keep social distancing'"

This only took two days:






If Germany didn't have such shitty water management I'd emigrate. Fucking hell.


----------



## 64K (Jul 23, 2021)

That 6 foot social distancing is a myth. I read where a sneeze can cause droplets to go as far as 27 feet depending on conditions. Once someone sneezes around you you can't outrun the droplets. If you get part of the sneeze cloud of droplets in your eyes you can be infected.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

64K said:


> That 6 foot social distancing is a myth. I read where a sneeze can cause droplets to go as far as 27 feet depending on conditions. Once someone sneezes around you you can't outrun the droplets. If you get part of the sneeze cloud of droplets in your eyes you can be infected.



I'd estimate that ever since the 6-foot policy was implemented, people were spaced about twice apart. So lines are 2x longer than before. Which means that if someone coughed up COVID19, they'd infect 1/2 the number of people rather than the original. (ex: If a sneeze really travels 27 feet: you'd infect maybe 9 people under normal conditions, but only 4 people under a 6-foot policy).

The 6-foot or 2-meter distance is just completely arbitrary. The important thing is to just keep people separated, so that any particular cough and/or sneeze infects 1/2 the number of people it would have before. Now 1/2 is not good enough: COVID19 originally had R0 of 3 (and Delta is even higher), but cutting down the spread in any way possible is helpful.

There was a rather nasty "choir" case early in 2020 where everyone was standing close together. A single person had COVID19 (likely asymptomatic / presymptomatic) and then 100+ people got infected because the choir practice had everyone so packed closely together. Slowing these kinds of "superspreader" events by having a 6-foot policy isn't about preventing the spread entirely, its about cutting the "100 people infected" number down to 50, 25, or smaller.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 23, 2021)

64K said:


> That 6 foot social distancing is a myth. I read where a sneeze can cause droplets to go as far as 27 feet depending on conditions. Once someone sneezes around you you can't outrun the droplets. If you get part of the sneeze cloud of droplets in your eyes you can be infected.



The exact cause of that peak I posted there is because people cuddled up in clubs again for one or two nights.

The whole R-number is based on a game of chance. 6 foot distancing is one of the bigger influences on that number.


----------



## HTC (Jul 23, 2021)

The last time Portugal had double-digit daily fatalities was back in April 1st, i believe. That is, until 2 days ago when we had 13 ... and 16 both yesterday AND today ...

We've been having 3K new daily cases for some time and, though our hospitalized is a fraction of what it was the last time we had such numbers of new daily cases, it STILL requires hospitals to re-shuffle their available beds in order to accommodate so many people.

The R number is dropping but not fast enough because our case numbers per 100K people are still climbing.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

HTC said:


> The last time Portugal had double-digit daily fatalities was back in April 1st, i believe. That is, until 2 days ago when we had 13 ... and 16 both yesterday AND today ...
> 
> We've been having 3K new daily cases for some time and, though our hospitalized is a fraction of what it was the last time we had such numbers of new daily cases, it STILL requires hospitals to re-shuffle their available beds in order to accommodate so many people.
> 
> The R number is dropping but not fast enough because our case numbers per 100K people are still climbing.



That R-number suddenly increasing by 50%ish because of the Delta variant isn't helping at all :-(


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 23, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> That R-number suddenly increasing by 50%ish because of the Delta variant isn't helping at all :-(



i think you are worrying to much still. similar to UK cases may be skyrocketing, but hospital and deaths are not. small increase sure, but its very very small, and only people who refused vaccine.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> and only people who refused vaccine.



I happen to know a lot of those people.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 23, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I happen to know a lot of those people.



i learned a long time ago you have to stop caring about people that aren't willing to care for themselves. i tried getting my mom to go to doctor for ten years, several fights, yelling matches, and so forth. eventually you got to give up and move on with your life though.


----------



## 64K (Jul 23, 2021)

I have a family member that refuses to get vaccinated because she believes it's a Government Conspiracy but then she's also convinced that the Moon Landing was faked by the Government.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 23, 2021)

64K said:


> I have a family member that refuses to get vaccinated because she believes it's a Government Conspiracy but then she's also convinced that the Moon Landing was faked by the Government.



I don't think the moon landing was faked, but I do admit, I find it odd these computers that could barely calculate anything (compared to today) were able to go to the moon several times... and yet today we can barely service the space station, even though the computers have increased a thousand thousand fold in compute power...


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I don't think the moon landing was faked, but I do admit, I find it odd these computers that could barely calculate anything (compared to today) were able to go to the moon several times... and yet today we can barely service the space station, even though the computers have increased a thousand thousand fold in compute power...


Not true. Computers and human ingenuity are capable of great things. The Germans created the rocket technology in the 40's. The US gave some Nazi dudes (Braun) space to work for them. The rest is maths. And some very clever Americans did some very good maths.

I mean c'mon, they had already built computers.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 23, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Not true. Computers and human ingenuity are capable of great things. The Germans created the rocket technology in the 40's. The US gave some Nazi dudes (Braun) space to work for them. The rest is maths. And some very clever Americans did some very good maths.
> 
> I mean c'mon, they had already built computers.



then why is it so hard to go back to the moon with all the advancements we have now... just seems odd.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> then why is it so hard to go back to the moon with all the advancements we have now... just seems odd.



The space race was mostly about demonstrating ICBM capabilities: that we can send a rocket (with a nuclear weapon) anywhere on Earth. That's what Sputnik represented. The USA then went to the moon to prove dominance in space (sure, we reached space 2nd, but reached the moon 1st), so we proved that we were "better" at space launches and therefore our ICBMs were also to be feared.

We're still the dominant player in ICBM nuclear games. So what would going to the moon prove? There's no point. Maybe China, Iran, or North Korea want to go to the moon, to prove that their missiles are that good. But the USA has no real purpose going there again. Russia never needed to go to the Moon, because they were the first to launch Sputnik and prove the capabilities of ICBMs first.


----------



## 64K (Jul 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> then why is it so hard to go back to the moon with all the advancements we have now... just seems odd.



From what I've read the technology that took us to the moon is obsolete and mostly forgotten now. We would have to start all over and it would be expensive.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> then why is it so hard to go back to the moon with all the advancements we have now... just seems odd.


It's not hard. It's really, really, expensive.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

64K said:


> From what I've read the technology that took us to the moon is obsolete and mostly forgotten now. We would have to start all over and it would be expensive.



I'm pretty sure modding Kerbel Space Program is more accurate and easier to program than messing with old Fortran punch cards. Seriously, no joke. KSP has an accurate Newtonian Physics model of near space (within the solar system).

And that's a video game. NASA's systems are accurate enough to land Rosetta (purple line) on a Comet (green line).



			https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bd/Animation_of_Rosetta_trajectory.gif
		






The blue-line is Earth, the red-line is Mars. IIRC, the path required multiple gravity-assists off of both Earth and Mars to successfully reach the speed that Green (the comet) was traveling at. We're really, really, really good at this.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 23, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I'm pretty sure modding Kerbel Space Program is more accurate and easier to program than messing with old Fortran punch cards. Seriously, no joke. KSP has an accurate Newtonian Physics model of near space (within the solar system).
> 
> And that's a video game. NASA's systems are accurate enough to land Rosetta (purple line) on a Comet (green line).
> 
> ...



KSP doesn't solve the n-body problem, which actually makes it massively limited in the real world, though there are mods for it that do (Principia).  Those mods are surprisingly accurate.  I play with it and it's damn hard.

NASA contracts with KSP on occasion for educational outreach.  It's a very cool game.  I actually maintain a major mod for it (Kopernicus) and have actually interacted with some very cool people, some of them involved in NASA via my work with it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> KSP doesn't solve the n-body problem, which actually makes it massively limited in the real world, though there are mods for it that do (Principia).  Those mods are surprisingly accurate.  I play with it and it's damn hard.



Traveling to the moon doesn't require solving the n-body problem though. At least, I don't think it does. Its just Earth + Moon, so 2-body at the most.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 23, 2021)

64K said:


> From what I've read the technology that took us to the moon is obsolete and mostly forgotten now. We would have to start all over and it would be expensive.


It's not so much that the tech is gone as is the willingness to spend that kind of money and human cost on such an endeavor.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Traveling to the moon doesn't require solving the n-body problem though. At least, I don't think it does. Its just Earth + Moon, so 2-body at the most.


You'd be surprised how wrong you'd be.  Even a far away bodies influence like Jupiter can alter the orbit just enough to screw you up all that way from here if you need to hit x crater, or some other precise target.

If you're ok with just "hit the moon" you are probably fine.

Also everything in Kerbal is scaled down to be 10x smaller.  This is an obvious issue, and my mod framework is actually able to address it.  I play at real size, as such.  It's friggin hard.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Traveling to the moon doesn't require solving the n-body problem though. At least, I don't think it does. Its just Earth + Moon, so 2-body at the most.


KSP doesn't even do 2-body.  It's done as spehere's of influence 1-body problem, with obvious limitations when the Earth/Kerbin or Moon/Mun just suddenly stops tugging on you.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 23, 2021)

Hey folks. This is the science Covid thread. Space things go elsewhere. I know I contributed but it's getting silly. Please, back on topic.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 23, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Hey folks. This is the science Covid thread. Space things go elsewhere. I know I contributed but it's getting silly. Please, back on topic.


Sorry.  Somehow I just assumed this was a space thread.  There were colorful orbits above my post.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

I think I'm distracted by happy thoughts about space orbits instead of trying to think of all these people who are going to injure themselves because they refuse vaccinations. But yeah, it is off topic... I'll try to bring us back to topic by posting...






Its hard to take a screenshot of the entire WashPo state-by-state graph. So I'll just post the top of it in most days. We can see that the USA-average is now 13-per-100,000, a rise over the past couple of weeks.


----------



## 64K (Jul 23, 2021)

It's insane here in my county. We got all the way down to single digit new cases for a while and now it's up to 120 new cases yesterday. No info is given by the County Health Dept. on whether it's one of the new strains but I suspect it is. That and people have stopped wearing masks and they are packing up close to each other in social situations.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 23, 2021)

Delta is a doozy. Almost certainly what's spreading like wildfire.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Delta is a doozy. Almost certainly what's spreading like wildfire.



When you consider that even in the "worst of states", the USA is at least 30% vaccinated (maybe 40% by now...) and yet we're seeing exponential rises in cases like that.... ouchie.

Imagine if we were still at 0% vaccinated? How much worse this would be...


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 23, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> When you consider that even in the "worst of states", the USA is at least 30% vaccinated (maybe 40% by now...) and yet we're seeing exponential rises in cases like that.... ouchie.
> 
> Imagine if we were still at 0% vaccinated? How much worse this would be...



also those vaccinated are the oldest or most vulnerable.

so i doubt we see hospitals/deaths rise too much outside of those areas in the southern states where people simply refuse to get the vaccine cause thats just what the south does.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 23, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> also those vaccinated are the oldest or most vulnerable.
> 
> so i doubt we see hospitals/deaths rise too much outside of those areas in the southern states where people simply refuse to get the vaccine cause thats just what the south does.



Gotta wait for this "surge" to make its way to the hospitals. So we'll know by the middle of August to see if your theory is correct (accounting for the time it takes for the disease to work its way through the body + the time to collect hospital statistics).  I hope that it is, but there's been enough surprises that I wouldn't rely upon it too much.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 23, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Gotta wait for this "surge" to make its way to the hospital. So we'll know by the middle of August to see if your theory is correct.  I hope that it is, but there's been enough surprises that I wouldn't rely upon it too much.



as the Uk has shown, there will be a slight rise in hospitals, but 1/10th what it was before the vaccines.  and most of them only have 1 shot. and they have their holdouts too. so who knows. it won't be perfect, but if you have at least one shot i think everything will be fine.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 24, 2021)

It jumped 46% from last weeks 40% jump in my state for Fully Vax'd


> As of July 22, a total of 21,083 post-vaccination case identified.



Everything is increasing


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 24, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> It jumped 46% from last weeks 40% jump in my state for Fully Vax'd
> 
> 
> Everything is increasing



context is important here. if someone says hospitalizations jumped 50% from last week, and last week was only 5 cases, so 10 cases total now this week in hospital... thats a bit misleading... 

so I need more details next time you post numbers.


----------



## Caring1 (Jul 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> context is important here. if someone says hospitalizations jumped 50% from last week, and last week was only 5 cases, so 10 cases total now this week in hospital... thats a bit misleading...
> 
> so I need more details next time you post numbers.


Math.
50% increase would make it 7.5 people in hospital this week.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 24, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> Math.
> 50% increase would make it 7.5 people in hospital this week.



well w.e you get my point


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> context is important here. if someone says hospitalizations jumped 50% from last week, and last week was only 5 cases, so 10 cases total now this week in hospital... thats a bit misleading...
> 
> so I need more details next time you post numbers.



My bad. I wasn't responding to your post above just making a comment on the numbers in my state

July 7, 10,430 post-vaccination cases
July 14, 14,365 post-vaccination cases
July 22, 21,083 post-vaccination cases

Unfortunately they don't break it down much further than that.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 24, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> My bad. I wasn't responding to your post above just making a comment on the numbers in my state
> 
> July 7, 10,430 post-vaccination cases
> July 14, 14,365 post-vaccination cases
> ...



the rate of breakthrough cases is listed here?  seems to be troubling upward trend...

side note:  Biogen snake oil FDA approved news update:









						Maker of dubious $56K Alzheimer’s drug offers cognitive test no one can pass
					

After facing intense criticism, Biogen goes on defense, blames "misinformation."




					arstechnica.com
				




lol.  FDA has lost all credibility after approving this drug imo.


----------



## HTC (Jul 25, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 54197 active cases --- 2426 more --- 347 more per day
- 881570 recovered --- 19863 more --- 2838 more per day
- 17292 fatalities --- 85 more --- 12 more per day
- 953059 confirmed infected --- 22374 more --- 3196 more per day

- 14768310 tests taken --- 401623 more --- 66937 more per day but was last updated July 22nd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 11078716 vaccinated --- 653250 more --- last updated last today but that corresponds to 6534047 1st doses + 4544669 2nd doses
- 879 hospitalized --- 74 more --- 11 more per day
- 193 in ICU --- 17 more --- 2 more per day

Week fatalities increased noticeably VS last week: after 16th consecutive weeks with the average below 10 daily fatalities, we've reached the double-digit daily fatalities barrier. The R number *decreased* to 1.07 on average but the National number of infected per 100K people is STILL rising. Roughly 64.8% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 44.9% are fully vaccinated.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 25, 2021)

CDC: ACIP COVID-19 Vaccine in Adults: Benefit-Risk Discussion-July 22, 2021 Meeting


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 26, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> CDC: ACIP COVID-19 Vaccine in Adults: Benefit-Risk Discussion-July 22, 2021 Meeting
> 
> 
> View attachment 209843


That's per million.  Numbers aren't bad at all frankly.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 26, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> That's per million.  Numbers aren't bad at all frankly.



They're even better when you consider the timing of when people were vaccinated in the USA.

Vaccinations didn't occur soon enough to stave off the winter-surge, and that report is from June 19th: before this recent "summer surge". There haven't been many cases / hospitalizations to prevent yet. That's changing right now as more-and-more people get COVID19 (probably Delta-variant) in this "July / August surge".













						Nearly all COVID deaths in US are now among unvaccinated
					

Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.




					apnews.com
				






> Earlier this month, Andy Slavitt, a former adviser to the Biden administration on COVID-19, suggested that 98% to 99% of the Americans dying of the coronavirus are unvaccinated.
> 
> And CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said on Tuesday that the vaccine is so effective that “nearly every death, especially among adults, due to COVID-19, is, at this point, entirely preventable.” She called such deaths “particularly tragic.”


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 26, 2021)

That 18-29 age group for myocarditis looks statistically 'off'.  This is where numbers become foggy. I'd like to know the underlying trends in that group. 

Quick Google found this:









						The Link Between Myocarditis and COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines
					

As cases of myocarditis are being monitored, the benefits of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination far outweigh the risk of myocarditis, doctors say.




					www.yalemedicine.org
				






> Still, doctors are reassuring patients and families. “This is an incredibly rare event,” says Dr. Asnes. *He adds that patients seem to get better quick*ly.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 26, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> That's per million.  Numbers aren't bad at all frankly.



What got me was Death is 0.0003-0.24 preventative . Its reliant on your current Immune System status and there isn't much one can do about it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 26, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> What got me was Death is 0.0003-0.24 preventative . Its reliant on your current Immune System status and there isn't much one can do about it.



Give it a few months.

There weren't many deaths (or cases) to prevent in April / May / June of this year. That's not the case anymore as we leave July and enter August. 100% of June COVID19 deaths in my state were from the unvaccinated. Literally all of them (a bit of an anomaly: other states are in the ~98% to 99% region instead but within the same general stat area)

Thankfully, my state has a high vaccination rate, so we don't expect too much transmission to occur here (and the little bit of transmission that occurs is in the unvaccinated counties and/or unvaccinated populations). We're still doing an awful job at vaccinating minorities so things aren't as good as I'd like... but at least we know the vaccination plan is working.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

I expect we will see a spike in deaths in the unvaccinated areas  at the end of August too, a couple weeks after all the kids go back to school and many of them will probably become asymptomatic spreaders to older more vulnerable people. 

I do think since most vaccinated people are not being tested anymore, there are a lot more breakthrough cases than we actually know about.

Which is fine, it doesn't change the fact you have much less risk of dying/hospital, so eh.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 27, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Give it a few months.
> 
> There weren't many deaths (or cases) to prevent in April / May / June of this year. That's not the case anymore as we leave July and enter August. 100% of June COVID19 deaths in my state were from the unvaccinated.



I hope your right but since its Delta majority now VE is 30% less. Pfizer also has said protection drop off start to happen 6month after 2nd doze. Those who finish they're dozes early on will start entering that window.

The only positive I see is we went through Epsilon which was said to evade vaccines more then Delta during last holiday season before the vaccine roll out.



lynx29 said:


> I expect we will see a spike in deaths in the unvaccinated areas  at the end of August too, a couple weeks after all the kids go back to school and many of them will probably become asymptomatic spreaders to older more vulnerable people.
> 
> I do think since most vaccinated people are not being tested anymore, there are a lot more breakthrough cases than we actually know about.
> 
> Which is fine, it doesn't change the fact you have much less risk of dying/hospital, so eh.



Speaking of test. I recall reading CDC put updated guidance for PCR test. They want testing facilities to switch over to more accurate and multi detecting systems by years end. Older systems will not have their certifications renewed at the end of the year.


----------



## 64K (Jul 27, 2021)

People in some States would rather have the risk of death from the Delta Variant of Covid than take the vaccine. Here's what is happening in Liberty County Florida:



			Florida tops the nation in new COVID cases. As they spike in its rural Big Bend, many still fear the vaccine more.


----------



## eidairaman1 (Jul 27, 2021)

64K said:


> People in some States would rather have the risk of death from the Delta Variant of Covid than take the vaccine. Here's what is happening in Liberty County Florida:
> 
> 
> 
> Florida tops the nation in new COVID cases. As they spike in its rural Big Bend, many still fear the vaccine more.



I do not trust msn.

Last year before march I had a sinus infection (get them yearly). In March for 2 nights in a row I got Fever and Sweats. I had mild symptoms of Covid19 and after that I was perfectly fine. I never wore a mask outside or in my own vehicle, I just would do normal things as wash hands, and shower.

Supposedly Vitamin D deficiency is a cause of concern, I do eat plenty of cheese lol.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 27, 2021)

64K said:


> People in some States would rather have the risk of death from the Delta Variant of Covid than take the vaccine. Here's what is happening in Liberty County Florida:
> 
> 
> 
> Florida tops the nation in new COVID cases. As they spike in its rural Big Bend, many still fear the vaccine more.



If the lady at the beginning takes the vaccine she improves her chances of not dying by 0.002 according to the benefit and risk prevention data.


----------



## 64K (Jul 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> If the lady at the beginning takes the vaccine she improves her chances of not dying by 0.002 according to the benefit and risk prevention data.



According to the CDC vaccines help keep you from getting seriously ill even if you do get Covid. If you don't get seriously ill from Covid then how can that not reduce your chances of dying from Covid?









						Benefits of Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine
					

What you need to know about getting a COVID-19 vaccination.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

64K said:


> According to the CDC vaccines help keep you from getting seriously ill even if you do get Covid. If you don't get seriously ill from Covid then how can that not reduce your chances of dying from Covid?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



the evidence is very clear cut for this yeah, breakthrough cases are not a big deal because the numbers are literally 99.99% you won't die or be in hospital if you get both mrna jabs.

I don't feel comfortable saying that for the other vaccines though.  mRNA really changed the game this round.  and I expect it will change the flu game in a couple years.


----------



## eidairaman1 (Jul 27, 2021)

64K said:


> According to the CDC vaccines help keep you from getting seriously ill even if you do get Covid. If you don't get seriously ill from Covid then how can that not reduce your chances of dying from Covid?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Why is the govs so hell bent on pushing people to get the vaccine? NWO/communism/barcodes?


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

eidairaman1 said:


> Why is the govs so hell bent on pushing people to get the vaccine? NWO/communism/barcodes?



because it cost them 5.7 trillion dollars when they reached 300k-500k deaths.  if you don't want your economy to collapse, you should prob get the jab. unless you don't care about old people dying in mass, in which case, don't get the jab.  them old people need to learn how to pull themselves up by they own bootstraps and never go to grocery shopping again!

for those wondering, that is sarcasm.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

eidairaman1 said:


> Bless your heart




that's fact. I don't agree with either one, I think military should have made factories overnight for N95 masks and each citizen wore a N95 mask when in closed spaces, and nothing would have changed at all. problem is boys like you would probably refuse the N95 too. and government would still have a knee jerk reaction, cause thats what governments do. so best to be smarter than government and we all just wear the damn N95. but since everyone is an idiot, I guess our currency will become worthless instead once the next mutation comes. and we hit 9 trillion in debt from covid.

we would be only 700 billion in debt instead of 5.7 trillion for covid. and probably less deaths too.

not using N95 was the key mistake Fauci made. normal masks didn't do crap.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 27, 2021)

64K said:


> According to the CDC vaccines help keep you from getting seriously ill even if you do get Covid. If you don't get seriously ill from Covid then how can that not reduce your chances of dying from Covid?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It does help and those are *CDC ACIP data on vaccines I posted*. Lady is 49yrs Female. Per 1million her age group risk of death goes down 0.002 which ever vaccine she chooses according to them.


----------



## Caring1 (Jul 27, 2021)

eidairaman1 said:


> Why is the govs so hell bent on pushing people to get the vaccine? NWO/communism/barcodes?


Improved global 5G reception.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

eidairaman1 said:


> Your ignorance precedes you. My comment to you stands.
> 
> Bless Your heartView attachment 209986



based on this picture then, it seems we are in agreement? now I am just confused. regular masks did nothing basically. especially considering this is an aerosol virus, so walking around a grocery store... that crap is just floating around even if people are far apart.

does anyone know if it was ever proven if the virus could be contracted through the eyes or ears? if so then even N95 is pointless...


----------



## eidairaman1 (Jul 27, 2021)

Being a respritory disease, it probably can go through mucous membranes, eyes being one of them if someone spit on you, that is why it is considered assault by bodily fluid in The US


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 27, 2021)

Okay - warning to all.

Keep it civil. No personal attacks.

In response to the ongoing mask discussion. I wear a cloth mask where I am asked to. I'm double-vaxxed now and don't tend to hug strangers, so I'm getting pissed at having to wear one in work (where I don't stand in someone's face). As for N95 masks? they're incredibly uncomfortable. No way would people want to wear those things all day. The PPE worn by medical staff left bruising on the faces of nurses. Saved their lives but they were in direct contact with patients being intubated. Those Covid wards were just awful. Still are. I know nurses that are stressed from working on them.

Cloth masks, as I said in the other Covid thread, don't really protect the wearer at all. But they absolutely do restrict the expiration of virus (and other bacteria) from your breath. It's why surgeons wear masks in surgery. It's hygiene, same as washing your hands.

To the point above, the mucous transmission is also why nurses in the deep end wear N95 and visors. I wear glasses - so I'm set.

As far as pushing vaccines; Covid is real. It is still killing people and is is very transmissable. It is it's ease of spread that makes it what it is. Covid itself isn't lethal to the vast majority. Which is why so many don;t 'feel' the effects of it (hint, go visit an old folks home). But the fact it can spread so easily means that tiny % of infections that lead to death becomes a far larger number. Also, as Delta shows, the longer it has to mutate, the higher chance it gets worse in one way (lethality or spread). 

The UK had gone large on opening up. Our infections peaked above January's numbers. Our deaths are still nothing compared to then. The vaccines work, well, for arguments sake, they do in our country.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Okay - warning to all.
> 
> Keep it civil. No personal attacks.
> 
> ...



yeah I am really thankful I am working remote right now.

I have some full goggles that look like lab biologists wear, I had them for when I had eye surgery a long long time ago. They look dorky as can be... but that combined with N95 mask at grocery store = I am golden.

I am also tempted to put in some wireless earbuds and jam out while at grocery stores from now. might as well, its not like you ever talk to anyone... plus closing up one more hole entrance can't be a bad idea with an aerosol disease. lol cause you never know.

grocery store is literally only time i am exposed anymore. so i figure its worth it to look a bit nutty. LOL  speaking of which I just bought a cheap inflatable kayak to go kayaking at this local pond near me (yes they legally allow kayaks) and its never busy, literally never... and its such a beautiful nature area.

so yeah. exploring more nature things. might as well do it now while covid is still rampaging.  i never was interested in concerts or busy things like that anyway, so I'm really not missing out on much.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 27, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> As far as pushing vaccines; Covid is real. It is still killing people and is is very transmissable. It is it's ease of spread that makes it what it is. Covid itself isn't lethal to the vast majority. Which is why so many don;t 'feel' the effects of it (hint, go visit an old folks home). But the fact it can spread so easily means that tiny % of infections that lead to death becomes a far larger number. Also, as Delta shows, the longer it has to mutate, the higher chance it gets worse in one way (lethality or spread).



They had some Cases Prevented numbers as well. Too lazy right now so just the low and high for each vaccine type

Janssen
6,600 Male 18-29yr (0.66%) - 36,600 Male 65yr+ (3.66%)

mRNA
9,600 Male 18-29yr (0.96%) - 52,700 Male 65yr+ (5.27%)
*Per 1million

And they still don't know how much is needed


> Exact correlation between antibody level and protection from COVID-19 remains unclear


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> What got me was Death is 0.0003-0.24 preventative . Its reliant on your current Immune System status and there isn't much one can do about it.


You do know the vaccine uses your immune system, right?



eidairaman1 said:


> Why is the govs so hell bent on pushing people to get the vaccine? NWO/communism/barcodes?


No.  Just no.  You basically also just confessed to having covid and refusing to wear a mask.  That is how this spreads.  No offense, but that's why we need you and people who come in contact with people like you to get a vaccine: so we can all go back to normal.  It's of course your right to refuse but you are effectively becoming a roadblock when you peddle misinformation.

So in the meantime, please don't peddle conspiracy theories in a science thread.  So you got COVID-likely and were fine.  How many people did you possibly kill running around without a mask?  That's my immediate thought.

The government is hellbent on getting people the vaccine because people are more useful (and taxable if you want a conspiracy angle) alive then dead.



the54thvoid said:


> Okay - warning to all.
> 
> Keep it civil. No personal attacks.


To be abundantly clear, this is not a personal attack on his character.  It's honest concern and an explanation as to why vaccines are needed.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> They had some Cases Prevented numbers as well. Too lazy right now so just the low and high for each vaccine type
> 
> Janssen
> 6,600 Male 18-29yr (0.66%) - 36,600 Male 65yr+ (3.66%)
> ...



the t-cells are more important than the antibodies i think too... i might be remembering wrong, but I recall reading something showing the t-cells are staying long term, so even if you do get covid again you 98% most likely will be ok again. i don't recall reading many if any cases of previous covid + recovery + infection causing hospital or death.

even if wrong on that though... 1 jab of pfizer plus that recover = almost 0 hospital/death.  so I do feel safer with one jab. I know that much.  



R-T-B said:


> You do know the vaccine uses your immune system, right?



indeed, and I mean no immune system means you were scared or should have been of almost everything even before covid.  the flu could and prob does decimate people with no immune system. if i had no immune system i'd prob go live in a cabin in the woods. lol


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 27, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> You do know the vaccine uses your immune system, right?



Yes. I was feeling like Superman with the added protection but now i'm feeling like a bull fighter holding a tissue paper


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> especially considering this is an aerosol virus


It's not really aeresol like you are thinking of it.  It binds to water droplets.  Thus even standard masks were pretty effective if properly maintained, because of the minimum size of a water droplet, and the fact that most porous materials soak up water.

The flu is transmitted a similar way.  Anyone notice anything about the last flu season?


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Yes. I was feeling like Superman with the added protection but now i'm feeling like a bull fighter holding a tissue paper




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/Unexpected/comments/mxf6r7

I apologize in advance.

Moving on, you have cancer or a compromised immune system or something?

I mean I have heart issues but my immune system is rather strong, thus I am not worried.  My father?  Cancer twice.  I worry about him.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 27, 2021)

Vaccines work. Look at the UK stats. Don't cherry pick. Look at our Gov site. The graphs are clear. We opened up and our rates went through the roof. The hospitalisations climbed far slower than pre-vaccine surges. The ICU cases were slower still. Deaths have remained in the double figures (in a population of 66 million) despite the record case levels. Previously it was in the hundreds, breaking four figures at one point. And that was in lockdown. 

We're being practically reckless but putting our confidence in the vaccines.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/Unexpected/comments/mxf6r7
> 
> I apologize in advance.
> ...



that video alone makes me want to get the second jab.  lmao.  I had no idea Jack Black made something like this. glorious beyond belief. dude is forever a legend.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 27, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/Unexpected/comments/mxf6r7
> 
> I apologize in advance.
> ...



All I have to say to that video is "As far as i'm concerned that's Americas ass"

No. Health wise I'm okay but after seeing Jack maybe i'm having second thoughts about my routines



the54thvoid said:


> Vaccines work. Look at the UK stats. Don't cherry pick. Look at our Gov site. The graphs are clear. We opened up and our rates went through the roof. The hospitalisations climbed far slower than pre-vaccine surges. The ICU cases were slower still. Deaths have remained in the double figures (in a population of 66 million) despite the record case levels. Previously it was in the hundreds, breaking four figures at one point. And that was in lockdown.
> 
> We're being practically reckless but putting our confidence in the vaccines.



Not sure why but I thought of this



			
				MIT said:
			
		

> The psychological effects of social isolation can affect your immune system. The culprits are loneliness and stress.
> 
> Research shows that our anti-viral response is suppressed when we feel lonely. An analysis of 148 different studies involving more than 300,000 people found that people who were more socially connected were 50 percent less likely to die over a given period. One experiment even found that people with many social ties are less susceptible to the common cold.
> 
> Stress has similarly harmful effects on immune function, because the hormones involved in a stress response — cortisol, which stimulates the production of sugar, and epinephrine and norepinephrine, which increase heart rate and elevate blood pressure — interfere with the function of immune cells.



It might play a role in the susceptibility to COVID among all people and contribute to an increase of cases


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> If the lady at the beginning takes the vaccine she improves her chances of not dying by 0.002 according to the benefit and risk prevention data.



Do you deny the chances of hospitals filling up? Do you deny the chances of triage? The prioritization of care? The fact that when hospitals fill up, you push people out of hospitals and those people die?









						Texas' new coronavirus surge is leaving critically sick patients stranded in rural areas, hospitals say
					

Rural hospitals say they’re in a bind as larger facilities in places like Lubbock, Amarillo and El Paso fill with coronavirus patients and often cannot accept gravely ill patients who need more advanced care than small hospitals can offer.




					www.texastribune.org
				




The pandemic is is about us running out of hospitals. Seeing these hospitalization numbers skyrocket, seeing our nurses and doctors worked to the point of exhaustion, seeing our fellow Americans suffering. That's what has *already happened* and vaccination will absolutely prevent that. #1 effect of vaccination is the prevention of hospitalization. The #2 effect is the prevention of *tranmission*. #3 effect is prevention of death. Do you deny either of these facts?

You're cherrypicking on the smallest stat and trying to make it all about that. COVID19's primary is about the damage it does to our hospital system as everything fills up and doctors/nurses become overworked.

Do you deny the freezer trucks that we sent to hospitals? Do you deny the 1.5 years of life expectancy lost last year due to COVID19 alone?









						Refrigerated trucks requested in Texas and Arizona as morgues fill up due to coronavirus deaths
					

"The hospital system as a whole, as we said, is under severe stress," said San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg.




					www.cbsnews.com
				












						US life expectancy drops 18 months due to COVID-19
					






					www.cidrap.umn.edu
				




The top causes of death are "Heart Disease" and "Cancer", neither of which are singular sources (there are many kinds of cancer, there are many different kinds of heart disease). The #3 cause of death was COVID19 last year. I dare say: COVID19 is the largest, *singular* source of death.






There are *many* different kinds of heart disease. There are many different kinds of cancer. But there's really only one COVID19. So even when we're talking about overall deaths, COVID19 had more deaths than "unintentional injuries", which includes freaking *car accidents*. Its an absolutely huge source of death by any statistic.

And that's the scary part. Death is... one of the "smaller" effects of the virus. The hospitalization effect is far more dangerous to us and our countrymen. The risks of "Long COVID19", the haziness and inability to focus after getting the disease, are causing huge numbers of disabilities and direct job loss.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2021)

Mask guidance is about to change people. This Delta variant is serious business. Vaccinated people will be recommended to get masked up again.

That's... not good politically. But seems like the powers that be are whispering. US cases have more than doubled in such a short time.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 27, 2021)

Hi,
Our governor isn't going to backtrack


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> ya most republican states won't require masks at this stage. I expect in January we will see a lot of older people dying though, as vaccines wear off and we get another surge before third shot can be recommended.



Well, we still don't know when the vaccine wears off. Current evidence points to a very long time, so I'm trying to be optimistic on that front. We'll have to keep an eye on the number of breakthrough cases though.



lynx29 said:


> CDC already confirmed it masks for all K-12 schools is recommended too. Kids won't be wearing masks in schools where I live though, they didn't listen to CDC the first time.



Yeah, CDC doesn't have many powers at all. They only make recommendations. Its up to the states to enforce the guidance.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 27, 2021)

Let's not get into the political nature of Covid responses. I'm well aware that 'mask averse' states are an issue but people have free will. So, it's down to the individual to make their own choice, regardless of what ticket their governor is running on. 

As a general warning, keep politics out of this discussion please. *This thread isn't a blame game*. It's for stats, tracking, and science.


----------



## eidairaman1 (Jul 27, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> You do know the vaccine uses your immune system, right?
> 
> 
> No.  Just no.  You basically also just confessed to having covid and refusing to wear a mask.  That is how this spreads.  No offense, but that's why we need you and people who come in contact with people like you to get a vaccine: so we can all go back to normal.  It's of course your right to refuse but you are effectively becoming a roadblock when you peddle misinformation.
> ...


So where did flu go?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Let's not get into the political nature of Covid responses. I'm well aware that 'mask averse' states are an issue but people have free will. So, it's down to the individual to make their own choice, regardless of what ticket their governor is running on.
> 
> As a general warning, keep politics out of this discussion please. *This thread isn't a blame game*. It's for stats, tracking, and science.



Yeah, its a political football for sure. Just trying to stay within the news on this one. I know its a hornets nest to moderate.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/27/cdc-masks-guidance-indoors/
		




> The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Tuesday that vaccinated Americans wear masks indoors in certain circumstances — the latest step in the nation’s escalating fight against the highly transmissible delta variant of the coronavirus.
> 
> The agency advised that vaccinated people who live in high-transmission places wear masks in indoor public spaces, according to three people familiar with the guidance. It also recommended that vaccinated people with vulnerable household members, including young children and those who are immunocompromised, wear masks indoors in public spaces.



Seems like the new guidance / recommendations are restricted to "high transmission places".


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2021)

eidairaman1 said:


> So where did flu go?



We locked down and masked up, and then the flu virtually disappeared for the year 2020. COVID19 is way more transmissible (maybe 2x more, while Delta is 3x more to 4x more transmissible). So even with masks and lockdowns, COVID19 continued to grow.

A simple viral test determines whether or not you have the flu or COVID19. Flu numbers are way way down, because of the success of masking / lockdowns / etc. etc.

That's the thing: when people are preparing for COVID19, they're also hampering the flu. Even in the areas without any mask restrictions, they still had major sporting events cancelled and/or conventions. So no "Convention Colds" spreading around masses of 10,000+ people (which probably was the flu). Etc. etc. The flu has an R0 of 1.5 to 2.5 (depending on the strain), while COVID19 is 3+ to 9+ (estimated figures, where 7+ are the estimates for these new highly transmissible "Delta" variants and whatnot)

So steps (like closing down conventions / sporting events / masks / social distancing) was enough to negate something like the flu, but not enough for the far more transmissible virus. Still, cutting down the spread in any way that we can is useful given how much our hospital systems were strained last year.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 27, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Yeah, its a political football for sure. Just trying to stay within the news on this one. I know its a hornets nest to moderate.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well that's not good



> CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said the changes were spurred by “worrisome” *new data showing that vaccinated and unvaccinated people infected by the delta variant carry viral loads that “are actually quite similar."* That suggests that some vaccinated people “may be contagious and spread the virus to others" even though they are unlikely to become severely ill because of the vaccines’ protection. Such transmission did not happen in any significant way with earlier strains.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Well that's not good



Indeed. Delta has far, far higher viral loads than the original strains. There's a reason why it became the dominant strain so quickly.



> People infected with the delta variant appear to carry a viral load that is 1,000 times higher than earlier versions of the virus, they said, and can easily spread it.



Quote from the same Wash. Po article we've been discussing. The link leads to: https://virological.org/t/viral-inf...ak-caused-by-the-delta-sars-cov-2-variant/724

As stated before: these kinds of studies are kind of "initial low-cost studies", and often contradict each other. They're still scientific evidence, but don't put too much faith in them yet. Nonetheless, they're really useful and important because they cost so much less to run, and still provide evidence for policies one way or the other. I'm sure we will know the truth behind Delta's spread eventually, but its a new variant and not much is known about it yet. Its clearly far more transmissible and far more efficient at spreading than all other COVID19 strains yet found.

1000x higher viral load doesn't mean 1000x more transmissible btw. It just means that when infected, your body will have 1000x the particles swimming around in it. It seems to be binding / working inside of our bodies way more efficiently than the original strains. The R0 estimates are "only" 50% to 250% more transmission than the original strain. That's 1.5x to 3.5x more spread (but its been a while since I've seen those estimates. Maybe a better estimate is out now)


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

Who is ready to buy a cabin in the woods and become self-sufficient, aka we grow our own food and go fishing for the protein.  @the54thvoid   1 cabin + 2 people are stat numbers, so my post is valid... haha just playing with you.

but seriously... who wants to go half in half on a cabin before the next mutation comes? LOL


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> but seriously... who wants to go half in half on a cabin before the next mutation comes? LOL



Delta was first identified in March IIRC. So we have months between a new mutation and the time it takes to become dominant.

People are worried about how "quickly" this spread... because yeah, a few months is really fast for these sorts of things. But its also important to keep the time-scales in mind here. "Fast for a Virus" is still plenty of time for us to watch the statistics, think of policy, and make changes to our behavior. Even the original COVID19 strain was publicly reported in December 2019 before it became a problem in March / April 2020.

All reasonable timescale estimates give us multiple months to collect statistics, plan, and change our behavior. Even today: if you haven't been vaccinated, now is the time to get vaccinated. It will take over a month for you to get fully vaccinated, but partial vaccination kicks in within just 2 weeks and full vaccination within 6 weeks. More than enough time to handle these multi-month scales that the virus operates at.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 27, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Delta was first identified in March IIRC. So we have months between a new mutation and the time it takes to become dominant.
> 
> People are worried about how "quickly" this spread... because yeah, a few months is really fast for these sorts of things. But its also important to keep the time-scales in mind here. "Fast for a Virus" is still plenty of time for us to watch the statistics, think of policy, and make changes to our behavior. Even the original COVID19 strain was publicly reported in December 2019 before it became a problem in March / April 2020.
> 
> All reasonable timescale estimates give us multiple months to collect statistics, plan, and change our behavior. Even today: if you haven't been vaccinated, now is the time to get vaccinated. It will take over a month for you to get fully vaccinated, but partial vaccination kicks in within just 2 weeks and full vaccination within 6 weeks. More than enough time to handle these multi-month scales that the virus operates at.



you are assuming though.  each new covid variant, Uk from alhpa was 50-60% higher viral load and hence more transmissible, and uk variant to delta variant was 1000% more transmissible due to viral load, and I think I am missing a couple variants, but it shows a linear progression of doubling in viral load... that's rather alarming what the next mutation looks like...

hence, I am legit being serious about the cabin in the woods thing LOL


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> you are assuming though.  each new covid variant, Uk from alhpa was 50-60% higher viral load and hence more transmissible, and uk variant to delta variant was 1000% more transmissible due to viral load, and I think I am missing a couple variants, but it shows a linear progression of doubling in viral load... that's rather alarming what the next mutation looks like...
> 
> hence, I am legit being serious about the cabin in the woods thing LOL


Variants can also become milder, there is some historical evidence that most respiratory based viruses start with more dangerous mutations but often then mutate into lesser variants in time, Spanish Flu would be an example of that but be positive, within a vaccinated population it is possibly preferable to get a mutation that is more transmissible but no more lethal in terms of vaccine efficacy than the other way around  

In the UK where Delta is pretty much 100% dominant new cases have pretty much halved in the last week, whether that trend continues remains to be seen but hopefully with a largely vaccinated population that trend may continue, the real problems lie within populations that have a lower vaccinated population.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 27, 2021)

FWIW, mutations go both ways. There's probably a fair few crappy variants that fall off the face of the earth.

What we need to do to stop this thing continually disrupting our lives though, is to vaccinate.

What mask averse and vaccine averse people fail to realise is that the effect of the virus isn't to kill us all. It just hobbles most of those who succumb to the infection (not asymptomatic). But the virus is very efficient at spreading. And in the Western world, we're quite good at being middle-aged and not very fit. So, imagine, you own a small business (supplier to another company) with ten members of staff. You need 90% to break even. Joe is 10% extra but he cracks funnies. You're a bit dismissive of covid. For whatever reason. Joe gets a strange cold but he's a good guy and keeps coming into work. The R number of Delta is high, so he passes it on to two or three of your workforce (you're all maskless and close knit).

Joe starts to go downhill. Stays off work. Two of the other three are okay (still insist covid is fake) but Janey, who's 55 and fat as a field, gets real bad. In fact, she's off work almost straight away. Your company is now at 80%. You need >90% to make profit. Now you're working harder. Falling behind on orders as Joe and Janey stay home sick. In fact, Janey just died - existing COPD meant Covid was the nail in the coffin.

One more worker stays home - they're a bit worried now. 70%. Business is suffering. Customers start looking elsewhere.

It's a nice story but it's what governments fear. Unchecked, Covid will do this. Is doing this. And my numbers were conservative. We're not being asked to vaccinate to keep us alive. *We're being asked to vaccinate because an economy needs a reliable workforce.* Lockdowns hurt but they were implemented to prevent the longer term (ongoing) damage of a busted economy. Sure, we're all in debt now but the IMF just upgraded the UK's position because of our 'exit' from Covid. An exit based on voluntary (but mostly well-observed) vaccination. Because we know how important it is to work as a nation to overcome this challenge.

You don't wear a mask because you're told to. You wear a mask because you want the best outcome for your fellow human. And for your job and your business. You don't get a vaccine because you were told to do so. You get it because you know it's the most effective way to break the cycle of sickness at your work. It's the only way to keep your workforce safe. The only way to keep the great economy going.

It's not about death. It's about GDP. It's why practically every nation under the sun has enacted policies to reduce the effect of the virus. From left to right, democracy to dictatorship; all nations understand the threat. Look around, nothing so global can be partisan.

I've done my part. Two Pfizers and a strong beer to wash it down. Hell yeah. (True, after each shot, I went home and had either a double or triple IPA). No side-effects.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 27, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> But the virus is very efficient at spreading. And in the Western world, we're quite good at being middle-aged and not very fit.



The nature of the virus has given it a funny nickname in my circle of friends. We sometimes call it the "COVID15", for the 15-lbs (7kg) we gained from the lockdowns / staying home instead of going out to sporting events and the like. In any case, I tried to stay healthy, and have kept to a running routine. Still I personally gained ~10lbs (~5kg) over the past year, not as bad as some of my other friends.

Overall: obesity is one of the biggest comorbidities associated with hospitalization and death. So you really need to watch your weight. Ensure you get a good diet and keep up with your exercise routine. Its harder because COVID19 shutdown many sources of activities and public gatherings. So you'll have to be doubly-conscious about your health in these times. It sucks but... that's the kind of life we're living right now.



the54thvoid said:


> Two Pfizers and a strong beer to wash it down



Maybe hold off the beer. There's a lot of calories in that, lol. (Though maybe that's just my "brain on a diet" thinking... gotta get rid of these extra lbs I gained...)


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 27, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> I've done my part. Two Pfizers and a strong beer to wash it down. Hell yeah. (True, after each shot, I went home and had either a double or triple IPA). No side-effects.


Wait.. Oral intake was an option?.. No wonder the B&R are so low. We are doing it wrong.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 27, 2021)

eidairaman1 said:


> So where did flu go?



Face masks worked?  That, and probably tracking was limited during the pandemic, but face masks certainly impacted seasonal flu spread.



Xzibit said:


> Wait.. Oral intake was an option?.. No wonder the B&R are so low. We are doing it wrong.


In complete seriousness, they are working on mRNA oral options...


----------



## HTC (Jul 28, 2021)

eidairaman1 said:


> So where did flu go?



It was reported today (or yesterday), that there were ZERO deaths from the flu this past season (October 2020 to May 2021): the measures we took because of COVID effectively brought the fatalities down to zero.

Now they are concerned because next season is expected to be a worse flu season due to lack of partial immunity from this season.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Jul 28, 2021)

It'll be curious if they push masks or lockdowns in the US how people respond. I got vaccinated as a healthy in shape 31 year old so I could not wear a mask and be able to enjoy a relatively normal post vaccination life. (I also got enough anthrax vaccine while in the military that I'm sure will bite me in the ass before this vaccine)

At this point if you're not vaccinated and still go out and about like it's normal, I don't care. They know the risks and if they're ok with it than let them be. At some point you need to let people make their own choices and stop punishing the masses to protect the few from themselves IMO.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 28, 2021)

I don't think anyone is seriously contenplating forced vaccinations.  We are just reminding people that not getting the vaccine is asking for trouble, because that really is the point we're at.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 28, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I don't think anyone is seriously contenplating forced vaccinations.  We are just reminding people that not getting the vaccine is asking for trouble, because that really is the point we're at.



No one ever will say "forced vaccinations". Its just a matter of "Carrot and stick". Such as, if you're a federal employee, you either have to get tested for COVID19 repeatedly (and get this cotton swap shoved up your nose), get vaccinated (negating your need for testing), or get fired.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/07/27/biden-vaccine-mandate-federal-employees/
		




> President Biden will announce Thursday that all federal employees will be required to be vaccinated against the coronavirus or face repeated testing mandates, a White House official said, a dramatic escalation of the administration’s effort to combat the spread of the delta variant.



Is this "forced vaccination" ? No. But its clearly "more of a stick than a carrot" so to speak. (Where our "carrots" were free vaccinations and donuts from Krispy Kreme...). Its not a final policy decision yet, but clearly something needs to change in this "Delta" environment.

-------

There's some serious issue about this new data about transmissibility from vaccinated individuals with respect to Delta. I'll want more testing done on that subject. The classic "carrot and stick" approach so far has been "get vaccinated or remain masked". Apparently its not enough however, since vaccination rates are remaining low. So maybe that policy should just go into the garbage until we figure out the right policies that actually get people to do the right thing.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 28, 2021)

That's going to be interesting for various reasons. As soon as they force someone out you can imagine the litigation is going to go up.

We will look back to when shaming was the more acceptable form


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 28, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> That's going to be interesting for various reasons. As soon as they force someone out you can imagine the litigation is going to go up.
> 
> We will look back to when shaming was the more acceptable form



That's the thing though, Biden isn't forcing Federal employees to get it, but if you don't get it you have to submit to mandatory testing, which is fair imo. It's same way NFL sports etc are doing it. Media just making a big deal out of it cause of the wording, but there is an opt out option that is LITERALLY NO DIFFERENT than the way major companies, etc are doing it.

Now hospitals and especially nursing homes...



ShiBDiB said:


> It'll be curious if they push masks or lockdowns in the US how people respond. I got vaccinated as a healthy in shape 31 year old so I could not wear a mask and be able to enjoy a relatively normal post vaccination life. (I also got enough anthrax vaccine while in the military that I'm sure will bite me in the ass before this vaccine)
> 
> At this point if you're not vaccinated and still go out and about like it's normal, I don't care. They know the risks and if they're ok with it than let them be. At some point you need to let people make their own choices and stop punishing the masses to protect the few from themselves IMO.



I agree with this, I also think they know masks won't be 100% effective in schools, BUT if majority wear a mask in the schools, they can contain the outbreaks easier when they do happen. I think that is the logic behind masks for K-12 schools now, I'm honestly not sure how I feel about masks in schools one way or the other, my niece said she doesn't mind the mask in school cause she forgets she is even wearing it most of the time. That being said, my parents and I are both vaccinated, so we should be fine even if we do get it. and if we aren't fine after we get it, then the vaccine was literally pointless. cause I already survived covid once with no vaccine. I only got the vaccine so that next time IF i get covid i only get the sniffles... instead of my ass kicked.

lol


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> That's the thing though, Biden isn't forcing Federal employees to get it, but if you don't get it you have to submit to mandatory testing, which is fair imo. It's same way NFL sports etc are doing it. Media just making a big deal out of it cause of the wording, but there is an opt out option that is LITERALLY NO DIFFERENT than the way major companies, etc are doing it.
> 
> Now hospitals and especially nursing homes...



NFL is different though


> _•_ _If an unvaccinated person tests positive, the protocols from 2020 will remain in effect. The person will be isolated for a period of 10 days and will then be permitted to return to duty if asymptomatic._


This one if for you 


> _• Persons who had a previous Covid infection will be considered fully vaccinated 14 days after they have had at least one dose of an approved vaccine._


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 28, 2021)

_• Persons who had a previous Covid infection will be considered fully vaccinated 14 days after they have had at least one dose of an approved vaccine._

Where is this from? If that is official government statement... then holy crap count me shocked. Also, thankful.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> _• Persons who had a previous Covid infection will be considered fully vaccinated 14 days after they have had at least one dose of an approved vaccine._
> 
> Where is this from? If that is official government statement... then holy crap count me shocked. Also, thankful.



Its NFL memo on protocols


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 28, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Its NFL memo on protocols



Interesting. I wonder how the NFL will handle breakthrough cases if fully vaccinated. Will those players still be allowed to play? Even though it is proven a fully vaccinated person can now spread it? (aka the mask mandate from today)


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 28, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> It'll be curious if they push masks or lockdowns in the US how people respond. *I got vaccinated as a healthy in shape 31 year old so I could not wear a mask* and be able to enjoy a relatively normal post vaccination life. (I also got enough anthrax vaccine while in the military that I'm sure will bite me in the ass before this vaccine)
> 
> At this point if you're not vaccinated and still go out and about like it's normal, I don't care. They know the risks and if they're ok with it than let them be. At some point you need to let people make their own choices and stop punishing the masses to protect the few from themselves IMO.



This is what we were told (in Scotland). Vaccines were the way out of this. I resent having to wear a mask when my behaviours and hygiene mean I'm highy unlikely to spread covid (even if I caught it asymptomatically). Again - point being - we wear the cloth masks to prevent spread, not for protection.

If someone was to walk toward me coughing and spluttering, I'd avoid them. I've had to speak to an older guy in my gym about coughing constantly (no mask either due to exercise discomfort). It all comes down to what exposure you want to risk. I'm not too fussed. As @ShiBDiB says, people have to make their own choices. It's just a shame alot of people are being petty about such a simple thing as wearing a mask to help protect _other_ people, though even then, mask wearing is secondary to being distanced from the infected - which again makes vaccinations even more valuable.

Our rates are now dropping after the World Cup (travelling fans tucked into trains and buses spread this shit like nutella on a grill). Yet, our authorities didnt want to blame national fans for what was very clearly massive social distancing 'anomalies'. And that's also a point. Cloth masks only do so much. If you're on a packed train (or indoor space) with a lot of people, some of whom have covid, the mask will do very little - they will expel enough viral matter (cotton masks have gaps) and you will be exposed to enough of it. And travel operators are seeing this now. So are Governments. Vaccines are the only realistic route out.

And on that:









						Covid travel: Fully jabbed from EU and US could avoid quarantine
					

Senior cabinet ministers are due to discuss the move for arrivals to England in a meeting on Wednesday.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 28, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> And on that:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



thank you for linking this... this will be absolutely brilliant for me and my relatives/friends... 

I hope they figure out if I will need to pay out of pocket for expensive private company based PCR tests too... cause that was a major reason for me not coming, 100 quid for a blimey test, 200 quid total since two tests required... insane... like wth is the point of getting vaccinated if I'm not going to be rewarded for it. i mean technically i shouldn't get the jab at all if i work remote and have no contact with others. i'm lucky enough to be in that situation now and I wasn't 6 months ago. if they make it a pain to travel still after fully vaccinated i don't see the point really for my current situation anyway.

I'm doing second shot if they do pass this law. I will wait the required 14 days, then come visit my friends'relatives in England finally... after such long wait... will wear N95 and my eye goggles everywhere I go... lucky they all work remote too... so I can isolate in the guest house they have just to be extra safe anyway, wait 2 days take a PCR test and if good to go then i will just act normal around them lol


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> thank you for linking this... this will be absolutely brilliant for me and my relatives/friends...
> 
> I hope they figure out if I will need to pay out of pocket for expensive private company based PCR tests too... cause that was a major reason for me not coming, 100 quid for a blimey test, 200 quid total since two tests required... insane... like *wth is the point of getting vaccinated* if I'm not going to be rewarded for it. i mean technically i shouldn't get the jab at all if i work remote and have no contact with others. i'm lucky enough to be in that situation now and I wasn't 6 months ago. if they make it a pain to travel still after fully vaccinated i don't see the point really for my current situation anyway.
> 
> I'm doing second shot if they do pass this law. I will wait the required 14 days, then come visit my friends'relatives in England finally... after such long wait... will wear N95 and my eye goggles everywhere I go... lucky they all work remote too... so I can isolate in the guest house they have just to be extra safe anyway, wait 2 days take a PCR test and if good to go then i will just act normal around them lol


Because the vaccine significantly reduces transmission, however "significantly reduces" is not the same as "eradicates"    Personally I am against England opening it's borders to any country unless the arrangement is reciprocal, in the case of the USA it's not, well certainly not initially, apparently there are concerns over the levels of the Delta variant here, like there is not a sh*tload of it over the pond already, but that's just selfish me talking because I normally holiday in the states every other year


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 28, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Because the vaccine significantly reduces transmission, however "significantly reduces" is not the same as "eradicates"   Personally I am against England opening it's borders to any country unless the arrangement is reciprocal, in the case of the USA it's not, well certainly not initially, apparently there are concerns over the levels of the Delta variant here, like there is not a sh*tload of it over the pond already, but that's just selfish me talking because I normally holiday in the states every other year



From the CDC media telebriefing yesterday. They made the mask back up guidance due to new data that they saw. Delta loads on vaccinated & unvaccinated people are similar so it seamed they were worried both vaccinated & unvaccinated people transmission of Delta similarly. She (CDC director) said they are currently investigating it but didn't provide any details aside from places we are seeing with high transmission. At least that's what I got from the briefing.

Oh, She did say that the data of the Delta variant they are seeing this also includes other countries


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

Over 500 cases/day here in my State again. We hit a low of ~100 cases/day (just under, maybe 96 was our bottom, averaged over a week) before this Delta variant started causing the statistics to climb back up. We still are among the lowest in the country in terms of the number of cases per capita, but this undoubtedly is showing the increasing spread of Delta.

%Positive is ticking back up. Our number of tests have remained nearly 20,000 tests/day, even at the low point. Seems like my state is pretty good about constantly testing as part of "good hygiene". (If you travel to other states, some companies require a negative test before you come into the office. Not mine, but more and more of my local friends are talking about this policy and how they have to be tested)

Testing remains high, vaccination remains high (among the best in the country), awareness remains high... masking is coming back. Not much left to do but hope for the best. With luck, we'll be hit with Delta at a far lesser level compared to some other states. We share a major highway which goes all the way down to Florida (and there are plenty of Florida vacationers around here: people who own a vacation home there or travel there regularly). We can't close our borders with other states: even if those states are among the worst in the nation with respect to Delta. So we just gotta grit our teeth and take it at this point.


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## the54thvoid (Jul 29, 2021)

Well, Scotland has just under 1400. And our population is slightly less. 500 sounds good to me!

We were at 3500-4000, during our last Delta peak a few weeks ago.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Well, Scotland has just under 1400. And our population is slightly less. 500 sounds good to me!
> 
> We were at 3500-4000, during our last Delta peak a few weeks ago.



Its more about the 400+% increase from a few weeks ago (going from ~96 cases/day to 500 cases/day is a terrible trendline!!)

500 cases/day is good in absolute terms, but this COVID19 thing seems to "stick to a trend" far longer than any of us like. If it keeps growing at that rate for another few weeks, we'll be in trouble. No one really knows when the trend will stop after all. Hope for the best / prepare for the worst, as they always say.


----------



## 64K (Jul 29, 2021)

Here in my county new cases are way up, hospitalizations way up, ICU patients up. Thankfully deaths from Covid are not way up but are increasing. Still the percentage of fully vaccinated people are below the national average in my state with only 39% fully vaccinated.


----------



## Bones (Jul 29, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> From the CDC media telebriefing yesterday. They made the mask back up guidance due to new data that they saw. Delta loads on vaccinated & unvaccinated people are similar so it seamed they were worried both vaccinated & unvaccinated people transmission of Delta similarly. She (CDC director) said they are currently investigating it but didn't provide any details aside from places we are seeing with high transmission. At least that's what I got from the briefing.
> 
> Oh, She did say that the data of the Delta variant they are seeing this also includes other countries


I'm bringing up a point about all this:

The CDC and others are literally lumping folks into "Vaccinated" or "Unvaccinated" groups and expressing it as one or the other related to who has immunity or not.
In this way they are saying if vaccinated, you've got immunity and if not you don't - Drawing a hard line between the two _which is not entirely true_.

Those that have been exposed to and beaten it on their own shoudn't need the vaccine because the purpose of which the vaccine is for _*has already been accomplished*_ naturally, meaning there is no benefit from getting the shot.
In fact it's been suggested before those that already have aquired natural immunity should not take it.

If you've had it already and beaten it without the vaccine, you have immunity;
The very same immunity the vaccine is supposed to cause the body to have when it triggers the production of antibodies against it .

And speaking of a vaccine, it's not like the antibodies once created because of it are any different or better than what would be created in the body via actually having and beating the disease.
The same body does the same job and makes the same antibodies in the same way in either instance.

Or as it could be expressed in laymen terms of "The manufacturer, method of manufacture and all materials used for the manufacture of these antibodies is the same" because the body creates them in the same way in either case of viral contraction.

With all this, understand:
_I'm not saying_ don't get it, I'm saying the way it's being referred to by either term isn't the entire truth.

Just sayin.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 29, 2021)

Bones said:


> I'm bringing up a point about all this:
> 
> The CDC and others are literally lumping folks into "Vaccinated" or "Unvaccinated" groups and expressing it as one or the other related to who has immunity or not.
> In this way they are saying if vaccinated, you've got immunity and if not you don't - Drawing a hard line between the two _which is not entirely true_.
> ...



The vaccines, while not perfect, do provide a more global benefit. Delta (iirc) is capable of reinfecting those already hit by Alpha, or Beta, whatever 'Kent' was.

Also, as @lynx29 has said, one vaccine plus previous infection is as good as two shots. In other words, infection and recovery alone isn't as good. Part of that is how the Pfizer and moderns work giving them better resistance.

One shot of AZ is not great against Delta.


----------



## Bones (Jul 29, 2021)

There are reports of those that's had the vaccine being infected with Delta as well, if that's really the case the vaccine is of no real benefit against it.
It's a virus, it's gonna mutate.... Not alot we can do about that.

I must beg to differ because there have been studies that say naturally aquired immunity is better than what's acheived with the vaccine. 
TBH there is still alot we don't know about it all and it is an ever-changing situation too, that being the fly in the ointment about it.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 29, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> The vaccines, while not perfect, do provide a more global benefit. Delta (iirc) is capable of reinfecting those already hit by Alpha, or Beta, whatever 'Kent' was.
> 
> Also, as @lynx29 has said, one vaccine plus previous infection is as good as two shots. In other words, infection and recovery alone isn't as good. Part of that is how the Pfizer and moderns work giving them better resistance.
> 
> One shot of AZ is not great against Delta.


I seem to recall back in the winter there were literally loads of people who caught the original strain from our 1st wave who then caught the Alpha variant and a lot got hospitalised, however fewer pro rata died I think so some positive there.

Edit:  The efficacy of a vaccine relates to serious illness and mortality, around 30% still transmit, the benefit of the vaccine therefore is a lot less chance of getting really sick or dying which is good enough for me at least.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 29, 2021)

Bones said:


> I must beg to differ because there have been studies that say naturally aquired immunity is better than what's acheived with the vaccine.
> *TBH there is still alot we don't know about it all and it is an ever-changing situation too, that being the fly in the ointment about it.*



I'm sure i'll butcher this but it was one of the question and answers that got my attention

There was a Q&A in the CDC briefing. One of the questions ask to the CDC Director was along the lines of what kind of coverage do we need to get at where we would turn the corner and have any of the models show this.  Her answer was a I don't know. She said that perhaps the people who they work with have done the work but she hasn't seen them.

I was thinking, More than a year into this and no interest not even a peek. I would at least asked or looked by now.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 29, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I'm sure i'll butcher this but it was one of the question and answers that got my attention
> 
> There was a Q&A in the CDC briefing. One of the questions ask to the CDC Director was along the lines of what kind of coverage do we need to get at where we would turn the corner and have any of the models show this.  Her answer was a I don't know. She said that perhaps the people who they work with have done the work but she hasn't seen them.
> 
> I was thinking, More than a year into this and no interest not even a peek. I would at least asked or looked by now.











						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.




					www.cdc.gov
				




Delta messes with the previous studies, however,



> COVID-19 vaccines currently authorized in the United States have been shown to be effective against SARS-CoV-2 infections, including asymptomatic and symptomatic infection, severe disease, and death. *These findings, along with the early evidence for reduced viral load in vaccinated people who develop COVID-19, suggest that any associated transmission risk is likely to be substantially reduced in vaccinated people*. While vaccine effectiveness against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants remains under investigation, available evidence suggests that the COVID-19 vaccines presently authorized in the United States offer protection against known emerging variants, including the Delta variant, particularly against hospitalization and death. Data suggest lower vaccine effectiveness against confirmed illness and symptomatic disease caused by the Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants compared with the ancestral strain and Alpha variant.
> 
> 
> Evidence suggests the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination program has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of disease in the United States by preventing serious illness in fully vaccinated people and interrupting chains of transmission. *The risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated people cannot be completely eliminated where community transmission of the virus is widespread*. Vaccinated people can still become infected and spread the virus to others. Current efforts to maximize the proportion of the U.S. population that is fully vaccinated against COVID-19 remain critical to ending the COVID-19 pandemic.



They can't give a specific number, i.e. (figure plucked from thin air) 85% vaccinations, as the remaining 15% accounts for 49 million people. That's a lot of potential spread. You need very high vaccination rates for herd immunity and an end to the problem. I think given the ongoing hesitance of certain groups, the US won't ever reach herd immunity. And Delta probably wont be the last variant considering the length of time the virus is being given to mutate. This was stated last year with reference to Brazil (due to the presidents stance). 

Anyway. I feel for those in the US trying to deal with this rationally. Y'all come over and visit the sunny UK when you're all jabbed up.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

Bones said:


> Those that have been exposed to and beaten it on their own shoudn't need the vaccine because the purpose of which the vaccine is for _*has already been accomplished*_ naturally, meaning there is no benefit from getting the shot.



P1 (Gamma variant) disproves you entirely. This Brazil variant reinfects individuals who rely upon natural immunity, because natural immunity is far weaker than vaccine immunity. EDIT: In contrast, vaccinated individuals are safe from Gamma. So we have a clear example of vaccinations beating a variant where natural immunity fails.



the54thvoid said:


> The vaccines, while not perfect, do provide a more global benefit. Delta (iirc) is capable of reinfecting those already hit by Alpha, or Beta, whatever 'Kent' was.



I wouldn't be surprised by this fact... but... I haven't personally seen studies suggesting Delta's rate of reinfection. I've only heard of Gamma's ability to reinfect.

Do you have any citations on Delta's possible reinfection rates? (Delta is newer than Gamma, so there's still much to be learned about this new variant...)


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 29, 2021)

It could be gamma I read about. But it's clear Covid can reinfect.


----------



## Bones (Jul 29, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> P1 (Gamma variant) disproves you entirely. This Brazil variant reinfects individuals who rely upon natural immunity, because natural immunity is far weaker than vaccine immunity.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Haven't seen or heard that about P1 (Gamma) so until I see some concrete evidence I'll stick to what I said. 
However even with that as an example it's not the only instance of re-infection. 

The data with Delta is somewhere inbetween what everyone is saying, some that's been vaccinated already caught it too, some haven't. 

Too early to tell of course but we may well be seeing actual resistance to it being subject to the individual themselves, vaccinated or not.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> It could be gamma I read about. But it's clear Covid can reinfect.



Delta's bad enough as it is. I'd be scared if it got any more "superpowers" than it already has!!


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

Bones said:


> Haven't seen or heard that about P1 (Gamma) so until I see some concrete evidence I'll stick to what I said.











						Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence
					

After initially containing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many European and Asian countries had a resurgence of COVID-19 consistent with a large proportion of the population remaining susceptible to the virus after the first epidemic wave.1 By contrast, in Manaus...



					www.thelancet.com
				












						SARS-CoV-2 reinfection caused by the P.1 lineage in Araraquara city, Sao Paulo State, Brazil - PubMed
					

Reinfection by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-COV-2) has been reported in many countries, suggesting that the virus may continue to circulate among humans despite the possibility of local herd immunity due to massive previous infections. The emergence of variants...




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




That's two different studies across two different cities, where despite 70% infection rates in these cities, P1 (aka Gamma) came around and reinfected everyone, leading to a hospital crisis. Its happened *TWICE* now, at least. It will happen again. The earlier "reinfection" was in Manaus, the 2nd case of this happening was Araraquara City.

In contrast, the vaccines have been shown to be effective against P.1. See here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v2



Bones said:


> The data with Delta is somewhere inbetween what everyone is saying, some that's been vaccinated already caught it too, some haven't.



Citation? The CDC has only said that Delta has high viral load (aka: the virus is in your body and you're spreading the disease around). But vaccinated people infected with Delta do not get symptoms, get sick, go to the hospital, or die (roughly 98% of the time. The remaining 2%... well... no vaccine is perfect but 98% protection is pretty damn good). The vaccine only helps your immune system prepare, if you've got cancer and/or HIV (or other immunocompromised), you're not going to fare well, even with the vaccine.

Preventing the vast majority of healthy people (well... healthy by American standards. Our diabetic + obese population) from going to the hospital when we get COVID19 is a big help however. Cutting down on 90%+ of hospitalizations and 98% of deaths will help out in this upcoming surge.

---------

Case in point. We know where the virus is affecting us in the USA.

Screenshot of CDC's current COVID19 tracker map: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home





Look at all those locations getting infected. Also check out their vaccination rates. The areas with low vaccination rates are getting sick. Its that simple. Sure, my state is still getting some cases, but compared to other states? The map alone proves it. We know the vaccine works from this data alone.

Delta is over 90% of the cases here in the USA. So the map above directly demonstrates how effective the vaccinated regions are doing vs Delta, compared to the unvaccinated regions.

EDIT: I probably should also post the vaccination map, shouldn't I?





There ya go. Vaccinations prevent Delta. Period. The more vaccine you have (lower map), the less Delta you get (upper map).


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 29, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
> 
> 
> CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
> ...



They can pluck the numbers the same way they present their current data. They "disclaimers" them with "vaccine efficacy in clinical trial setting" & "estimates/projections using crude numbers". The question posed wasn't something unattainable

Its the withholding of data that feeds into part of Hesitancy.  Like X number of people dead then leaving out most of those X number had comorbidities or those infected having underlying conditions.



> In the eight hospitals run by Houston Methodist, there are about 300 covid-19 patients, triple the number in early June, Musser said. Most new cases involve the delta variant. *He estimated that 20 percent of the covid patients were fully vaccinated before becoming infected.
> 
> But he cautioned that most of these patients have underlying medical conditions that impaired their ability to mount an immune response after being vaccinated.*
> These post-vaccination infections have often been described by Walensky and other medical experts as rare. How rare is unclear. News reports of people getting sick after vaccination have been common in recent weeks. But scientific data is limited.



They also start to look like things weren't so important



> The CDC on May 1 said it would stop tracking mild and moderate breakthrough cases, and focus only on hospitalizations and deaths. As of July 19, the CDC had documented 5,914 such breakthroughs, including 1,141 deaths.



Like I posted before in this thread my state started reporting breakthrough cases weekly



> July 22, 2021
> 21,083 post-vaccination cases



Even if one is bad at math they can see there is a big gap. 1 state has a breakthrough case of over x3 the CDC report for entire country

Maybe be helpful with a mild and moderate data set or ah "Eh" category


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> most of those X number had comorbidities



And you're leaving out that those comorbidities were largely obesity and diabetes, which are anything but uncommon in the USA.

Its turtles all the way down man. Whether you intend or not, there's always more and more information and multiple sides to every story. We can go on-and-on about the specifics, but that's largely a waste of time. I'm looking at the big-picture stuff right now.

And right now: vaccinated areas (see the vaccination map) are *NOT* getting infected by Delta. While the unvaccinated areas are. You can try to explain it away or logic it away, but that's just lipstick on a pig. We can see the data and its quite evident at this point. Occam's razor demands us to simplify arguments, not to make them overly complicated.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 29, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> And you're leaving out that those comorbidities were largely obesity and diabetes, which are anything but uncommon in the USA.



Doesnt society already fat shame people and study show it has the opposite effect


----------



## Bones (Jul 29, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> -Snip-


The way you are saying it ignores the fact people that's already had it and beat it without the vaccine do have at least "Some" immunity, that's the point I was making originally.
Again, there have been reports that have said those with natural immunity, at least in some cases are better off and even have a longer lasting immunity from it.

Natural Immunity After COVID-19 Found Durable and Robust — Precision Vaccinations

COVID-19 survivors may possess wide-ranging resistance to the disease | Emory University | Atlanta, GA

Do You Need a Vaccine After Having COVID-19? Experts Aren’t Sure

To define it "As" vaccinated have immunity and those that beat it naturally don't have any is just a falsehood.
That's drawing a hard line about it and implying you MUST have the shot to have any immunity or if you don't take it, you don't.

And by your own words no less, no vaccine is perfect and with the expected mutations we'll see there is no "One for all" vaccine to be had anyway.
I've already come to terms with it, this virus isn't going away and it will be here period. 

Now - _To be fair_ there are some reports that contradict what's in the links I posted, there is still too many variables we don't know about to nail it down and that includes the "Thing" I'm getting at here.

I just want it stated factually from ALL angles, not just drawing a hard line as it's one or the other period, because there is more to it than this. 
My original point about it stands as stated.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Doesnt society already fat shame people and study show it has the opposite effect



Its not about fat-shaming. Its about the level of bullshit that people are hiding behind the "Comorbidities" argument. People hide behind the word without really understanding what it means.

Yeah, if you die of COVID19 and you're obese, the doctor will write obesity as a comorbidity (because we all know that obese people die at far higher rates to COVID19 than healthy weight adults). That's what a comorbidity is: a thing the doctor writes into the death certificate that "contributed" to the death. If you're diabetic, your doctor will write diabetes into the death certificate when you die of COVID19. That's just how it works.

Its like people say a fancy medical term as if it makes them smarter. No. Comorbidity is just the extra lines under your cause of death, including anything that may have directly, or indirectly contributed to death.  Yes, you're right that most death certificates have a comorbidity, but really *think* about what that really means. Its more of a reflection upon the health of our general population more so than imaginary conspiracy theories at play here.

In any case, obese people don't *normally* die at these large numbers that we're seeing. The primary cause of death is clearly COVID19. To argue otherwise is to misrepresent these death certificates. They didn't die because they were obese. They died of COVID19 (with a comorbidity, a contributing factor, was obesity).









						Comorbidity and its Impact on Patients with COVID-19
					

A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Since then, the virus has made its way across the globe to affect over 180 countries. SARS-CoV-2 has infected humans ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				






> The most common comorbidities found were obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus



Which also happen to be the most common chronic illnesses in the USA. So these comorbidities shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who knows what they're talking about.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 29, 2021)

Trial finds limited effectiveness of convalescent plasma for covid-19 patients | BMJ
					

Convalescent plasma fails to reduce deaths or stop progression to severe disease Convalescent plasma shows limited effectiveness as a potential treatment for patients with covid-19 to help them fight off the infection, finds a clinical trial from India published by The BMJ today. The findings...




					www.bmj.com
				




Convalescent plasma studies don't reduce Covid mortality. Basically, infused plasma from infected and recovered individuals did not reduce the incidence of death.

Yeah, while contracting and surviving Covid will give you a boost at not getting it again, the vaccines will give a better chance of not getting it at all. There's a wildcard in that statement. To get the virus and pull through will give you a better chance next time of not dying. Can't folks see the logic at play there. *Get a possibly fatal virus to make sure the next time you'll be stronger*. I'll say it again, and this is working on the actua source material (I read it) - the more severe your case is, as long as you don't die, you'll have greater antibodies next time.

I'm just happy I chose to get vaccinated and miss out the middle part.

It's all down to personal choice. Do what you want.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 29, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Its not about fat-shaming. Its about the level of bullshit that people are hiding behind the "Comorbidities" argument. People hide behind the word without really understanding what it means.
> 
> Yeah, if you die of COVID19 and you're obese, the doctor will write obesity as a comorbidity (because we all know that obese people die at far higher rates to COVID19 than healthy weight adults). That's what a comorbidity is: a thing the doctor writes into the death certificate that "contributed" to the death. If you're diabetic, your doctor will write diabetes into the death certificate when you die of COVID19. That's just how it works.
> 
> ...



Maybe I should have expanded. 

Their hasn't been a concentrated effort as in mandates due to obesity which leads to many more deaths including those of Covid.  We haven't gotten to the point we can't work or be subject to weight checks and such.  We all know its bad and contributes to over all health but we as a society have for the most part accepted it.



			
				CDC said:
			
		

> The risk of severe COVID-19 illness increases sharply with elevated BMI.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Maybe I should have expanded.
> 
> Their hasn't been a concentrated effort as in mandates due to obesity which leads to many more deaths including those of Covid.  We haven't gotten to the point we can't work or be subject to weight checks and such.  We all know its bad and contributes to over all health but we as a society have for the most part accepted it.



Yeah. Because obesity doesn't spread through the population like wildfire. One of my coworkers is morbidly obese. He's not going to spread obesity to me by breathing on me. He's not going to spread obesity to people on the train by breathing the same air as the rest of the passengers.

Meanwhile, one asymptomatic person in a Choir spreads COVID19 to their *entire choir group, *100+ infections in a single day.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 29, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Yeah. Because obesity doesn't spread through the population like wildfire.
> 
> One of my coworkers is morbidly obese. He's not going to spread obesity to me by breathing on me. He's not going to spread obesity to people on the train by breathing the same air as the rest of the passengers.



Yes and his susceptibility of illness and death is being generalize to all people.  Which leads to distrust and hesitancy.  The fine print isn't being included in the wide general information which leads to such mistrust when the general audience starts to question it due to confusion.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Yes and his susceptibility of illness and death is being generalize to all people.  Which leads to distrust and hesitancy.  The fine print isn't being included in the wide general information which leads to such mistrust when the general audience starts to question it due to confusion.



40+% of the US population is obese my dude.

For all practical purposes, obesity is the status quo in this country. There are more obese people than black people. In fact, there are more Obese women in the USA than there are overweight women, normal weight women, or underweight women.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 29, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> 40+% of the US population is obese my dude.
> 
> For all practical purposes, obesity is the status quo in this country. There are more obese people than black people.



I'm aware. 



			
				NBC said:
			
		

> About 78% of people who have been hospitalized, needed a ventilator or died from Covid-19 have been overweight or obese, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a new study Monday.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 29, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I'm aware.



And are you fine still yelling 'Comorbidities" in a crowded theater, knowing full well that most people don't really know what that word means? And then using that word to sow distrust in these statistics?

That's what my problem is. There's no conspiracy here, but people want to find one to "prove" that these statistics are unreliable. Its really easy to understand why so many people who die of COVID19 have a "comorbidity", because more people in the USA have a chronic disease than not. (That is: obesity, diabetes, or hypertension).

And secondly: its not very surprising to anyone that these conditions also are "unhealthy" and lead to a higher chance of death (especially when you come across a disease that wrecks your ability to breath).

--------

And to be clear, I know that you're not the one who originated this "comorbidity" talking point. I'm talking about the "generic you", because so many people I know are "but cormobidities!?!?!?" as if its actually a legitimate talking point.


----------



## HTC (Jul 29, 2021)

Here in Portugal they are giving ONE DOSE to those that had COVID 6+ months ago, instead of the two doses.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 30, 2021)

We might get a look at the data tomorrow



> The research was conducted by people outside the C.D.C., the scientists said, and the agency is working quickly to analyze and publish the results. The agency expects to publish the research on Friday, one official said.
> 
> Some of the research may be related in part to an outbreak in Provincetown, Mass., where Fourth of July festivities have led to 882 cases as of Thursday. Nearly three-quarters of those people were fully vaccinated.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> We might get a look at the data tomorrow



NYT is suggesting that Delta is a rare COVID19 variant that actually spreads within the nose (largely without much issue to the individual). Other variants didn't seem to do this.

Since the vaccines are in our muscles / blood, that's where our defenses are focused on. As such, Delta flourishes in the nose (spreading while we breath), but immediately getting eradicated as it tries to go from our nose to our lungs (where our blood is trained to defend against it).

Which could very well explain this "Vaccinated individuals spread the disease, but don't get seriously sick" thing going on.

-------

NYT is still using a lot of weasel words though. They're not super-confident about these theories / hypothesis. Probably best to just wait for the promised research tomorrow (or later)

--------

WashPo is more clear about where these rumors are coming from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/



> The document is an internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention slide presentation, shared within the CDC and obtained by The Washington Post.



TL;DR: the CDC came across some new, frightening information / studies / research with regards to Delta. However, the CDC is not ready to publicly release the information, and is still processing the information internally. Seems like the newspapers are trying to one-up each other and get the scoop early. This leads to mistakes and distrust in the media, as the "rumors" that come out right now are likely untrue and/or mischaracterized.

We should wait for the information to be officially published, and then wait a bit longer for the experts in our circles to read and understand it. This media frenzy about rumors and/or information always leads to misunderstandings. Big news is coming, but exactly what will be a mystery until the news is *actually* released. Rummaging through internal powerpoints designed for internal collaboration is probably not helpful.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Jul 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> We should wait for the information to be officially published, and then wait a bit longer for the experts in our circles to read and understand it. This media frenzy about rumors and/or information always leads to misunderstandings.



The news only exists nowadays to sell ad space, and they do that with controversy and hyperbole. All the networks do it.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I'm aware.



Both my grandma and uncle died from Covid in May 2020, they were both very obese.



HTC said:


> Here in Portugal they are giving ONE DOSE to those that had COVID 6+ months ago, instead of the two doses.



yep, they following suit of germany and france. the NFL does this now too. the science shows its working. 

I'm glad I have at least one shot + previously recovered... I do feel safer with the one shot though honestly. Especially since Covid kicked my ass the first time around.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 30, 2021)

Bones said:


> Those that have been exposed to and beaten it on their own shoudn't need the vaccine because the purpose of which the vaccine is for _*has already been accomplished*_


Naturally immunity is not near as comprehensive as the avaiable vaccines, particularly in regard to variants and how long immunity lasts.



Bones said:


> There are reports of those that's had the vaccine being infected with Delta as well, if that's really the case the vaccine is of no real benefit against it.


Untrue as those infected with it have far lower occurance of symtom expression.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Naturally immunity is not near as comprehensive as the avaiable vaccines, particularly in regard to variants and how long immunity lasts.



I really think you should be more careful with your wording, its the generalizations that push people away. For example, I would have worded it, "Natural immunity is only comprehensive when you add in at least one shot of the vaccine with it"

I feel like a lot of the rhetoric lately, even from Biden is doing this, like forcing all Federal Employees to get both shots, completely disregarding the science that some of them only need one shot, if they have proof of previous infection and recovery. I really dislike it when someone disregards science and forces it anyway...


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 30, 2021)

Bones said:


> That's drawing a hard line about it and implying you MUST have the shot to have any immunity or if you don't take it, you don't.


It's more like saying the shot is your best bet, which is true.



lynx29 said:


> I really think you should be more careful with your wording, its the generalizations that push people away.


I was using vaccines plural as in to cover all the available brands.



lynx29 said:


> I really dislike it when someone disregards science and forces it anyway...


There is evidence mounting that even a third shot may help boost immunity.  I feel I too would side with "better safe than sorry," but it is indeed personal choice.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 30, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> There is evidence mounting that even a third shot may help boost immunity.  I feel I too would side with "better safe than sorry," but it is indeed personal choice.



Yes but that's being discussed in immunocompromised people. Those who have trouble producing enough of a immune response after full vaccine. For general public is being discussed due to drop off response from vaccine after 6months.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

I wonder if three years from now we will still be in this forum, talking about how annoying it is to get covid every year and 3 shots every year from all the mutations. lol.

Future is great. I mean it seems pretty clear cut to me, Covid is here to stay permanently.  Just hops around like no ones business, I even read today over half of the deer in the state of Michigan had covid at some point, their blood showed anitbodies.  

Honestly if I could afford it, I would buy a camper near a lake and just semi-retire working part time remote right now. But I can't, so I have to deal with other humans sadly.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 30, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Yes but that's being discussed in immunocompromised people. Those who have trouble producing enough of a immune response after full vaccine. For general public is being discussed due to drop off response from vaccine after 6months.


I was simply saying I can understand the cautious approach until the science is certain.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 30, 2021)

While we're on the subject



			
				CDC ACIP Meeting July 22 said:
			
		

>  Immunocompromised people comprise ~2.7% of U.S. adults
> - 44% of hospitalized breakthrough cases are immunocompromised people in US study


----------



## Bones (Jul 30, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> 1: Naturally immunity is not near as comprehensive as the avaiable vaccines, particularly in regard to variants and how long immunity lasts.
> 
> 
> 2: Untrue as those infected with it have far lower occurance of symtom expression.


1: Obviously you didn't read the links I gave that says otherwise from reputable research that's been done.

2: I believe that's a variable but at the same time it's still not proof and the recent thing about a certain group of politicians from a certain state that came down with it AFTER they had taken the shots tells me otherwise.
If it can happen to them, it can happen to anybody.


R-T-B said:


> 3: It's more like saying the shot is your best bet, which is true.


3: _Back to my previous point this comment was directed at_:
It's about it being stated as a 50/50 absolute, *which I do have a problem with -  *Because that's actually lying to a point if not outright lying.

I'll say it again - I want it told from ALL angles because there are more than just the two sides of it we keep hearing about.

I'm not arguing if a shot does or does not give you the best best, I'm quite sure by now depending on which strain you refer to it can be either way at this point.

Also remember there were some things stated as being scientific fact a year or even just 6 months ago, which have now been disproved, either completely or at least in part.
The research I linked to in my previous post;
That in itself does say alot BUT at the same time _even *that*_ can become less than truth in time which I'd actually expect but also remember that cuts both ways, not just in favor of one or the other.


----------



## 64K (Jul 30, 2021)

I'm still thinking a 3rd shot will be recommended eventually:









						Pfizer data suggest third dose of Covid-19 vaccine 'strongly' boosts protection against Delta variant | CNN
					

A third dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine can "strongly" boost protection against the Delta variant -- beyond the protection afforded by the standard two doses, new data released by Pfizer on Wednesday suggests.




					www.cnn.com
				




I think an annual booster is a strong possibility as well. The vaccine wanes after a period of time.
Still, we are learning as we go. What scientists find out 6 months from now may overturn what is being said right now.


----------



## Tatty_One (Jul 30, 2021)

Bones said:


> 1: Obviously you didn't read the links I gave that says otherwise from reputable research that's been done.
> 
> 2: I believe that's a variable but at the same time it's still not proof *and the recent thing about a certain group of politicians from a certain state that came down with it AFTER they had taken the shots tells me otherwise.*
> If it can happen to them, it can happen to anybody.


But here is the thing, did they get hospitalised or die?  Even if they did, the efficacy is not 100% so is this really a surprise to anyone?  I too am sceptical about some of the messaging and how at times I feel we have been force fed selected information throughout the pandemic but what I can see currently in the UK in relation to vaccines is fairly simple and clear, taking current infection rates, then cross referencing them to the same/similar infection rates in both the 1st and 2nd waves (pre vaccine) and I see that there were around 8 times the hospitalisations and 15 times the deaths pre vaccinations, the vast majority of current hospitalisations and deaths are no jab or single jab people, of the folk that have had both jabs with the last being at least 2 weeks before infection which sits at around 10% (as of a week ago) it would indicate to me at least that efficacy expectations are being met.

I stress that the above is with just about 70% of our adult population double jabbed so there is likely to be many countries out there with differing situations/evidence.


----------



## Bones (Jul 30, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> But here is the thing, did they get hospitalised or die?  Even if they did, the efficacy is not 100% so is this really a surprise to anyone?  I too am sceptical about some of the messaging and how at times I feel we have been force fed selected information throughout the pandemic but what I can see currently in the UK in relation to vaccines is fairly simple and clear, taking current infection rates, then cross referencing them to the same/similar infection rates in both the 1st and 2nd waves (pre vaccine) and I see that there were around 8 times the hospitalisations and 15 times the deaths pre vaccinations, the vast majority of current hospitalisations and deaths are no jab or single jab people, of the folk that have had both jabs with the last being at least 2 weeks before infection which sits at around 10% (as of a week ago) it would indicate to me at least that efficacy expectations are being met.
> 
> I stress that the above is with just about 70% of our adult population double jabbed so there is likely to be many countries out there with differing situations/evidence.


You make a good point, it's true (I believe) none died from it, as far as being admitted to a hospital I believe at least one was - I'll have to check that. 

I will say if ANY progress towards improvement has been made that's a good thing, something we need to be seeing from all the efforts to combat it.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 30, 2021)

Bones said:


> 1: Obviously you didn't read the links I gave that says otherwise from reputable research that's been done.


I won't deny I missed that but that IS what the CDC has been saying so you'll forgive me for being skeptical.  Still if your links are trulu reputable I will try and review them.  Stand by.



Bones said:


> I'll say it again - I want it told from ALL angles because there are more than just the two sides of it we keep hearing about.


I look at it somewhat differently: follow the science, because it has no angles.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

Shock finding in Covid vaccine study of more than 1 million people
					

A new study claims the Pfizer Covid vaccine has a similar blood clotting risk rate to the AstraZeneca jab. Find out what the experts are saying.




					au.news.yahoo.com
				




blood clots just as common in pfizer as astra zeneca from this study.  1 million participants. who knows though.

still glad I got my jab, but I know people who say things like why risk any side effects including bells palsy etc when I am healthy and most likely will just get the sniffles. technically speaking their argument isn't far off, 98% of people just get sniffles. that being said you never know. I am in my early 30's, water only, i don't eat the best but i do ok, and i take a good vitamin regimen/zinc/vitamin c and vitamin D for a few years now. and covid kicked my ass in november. so yeah, you never know really. I don't think anything should be forced, if people want to play the numbers game that's their choice. even if all USA were to get vaccinated 100%, it wouldn't matter 1-2 years from now, planes never stop flying, entire world won't be able to get 100% and never will be able to. Pandora's Box has been opened, there is no closing it now. 

I am thankful as crap I work remote.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I happen to know a lot of those people.



Then you have missionary work to do


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Then you have missionary work to do



I couldn't convince my Mom that Obama wasn't a Muslim. You don't live here. Its utterly hopeless to fight against the torrent of misinformation.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Shock finding in Covid vaccine study of more than 1 million people
> 
> 
> A new study claims the Pfizer Covid vaccine has a similar blood clotting risk rate to the AstraZeneca jab. Find out what the experts are saying.
> ...



Point to note, the study has yet to be peer-reviewed which means a lot. The review process highlights possible flaws in the study and/or design. The comment at the end is interesting (unfortiuntaely not sourced) as it speaks about treatbility of the thrombosis concerned. It also suggests the paper isn't studying the same condition that was notcied with the AZ vaccine. It still notes the increase in the thrombosis event it measured to be far lower than the incidence in Covid patients (1.3 versus 8 times risk).

Edit - I LQ'd the above posts. Please, keep it to the science.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

Washington Post is now posting the CDC documents: https://www.washingtonpost.com/cont...ections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e/

Some highlights:








.









Lots of good stuff in there, really.

---------

Delta _can_ reinfect, but only after 180 days. Its rate of reinfection is higher than Alpha (and probably the original COVID19). Delta has made "strides" with regards to infection and transmission, but not much against hospitalizations / death with regards to the vaccine. The vaccine still offers protection, but the protection is less than expected now.


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I don't think the moon landing was faked, but I do admit, I find it odd these computers that could barely calculate anything (compared to today) were able to go to the moon several times... and yet today we can barely service the space station, even though the computers have increased a thousand thousand fold in compute power...



Complexity is generally always increasing. If you could take shares in overall complexity of systems it'd be better than real estate. And complexity happens in layers. Look at any OS. Security. Weapons (take off safety or no pulling triggers)...

What they understood in the 40-80's is basically what we are STILL iterating on. But the basic notion of it, the fact it is possible, is unchanged. We just aim to do it in a better way. Space tech is oriented that way. Nuclear power much the same (you cant build a shittier plant than what we have, its literally forbidden to not somehow improve its design)... and IT is now the new layer that is ever better in connecting all these bits of info.

Circling back to the topic.. these new mutations are another example of changes in complexity. Any booster shot we might get is likely going to be tweaked even more precisely. Look at the difference between effect of mRNA and old vaccine tech... 

Likewise we can still land on the moon fine but why do it again in such a crude way, we can automate it now and recycle parts.  >> SpaceX.


----------



## Ahhzz (Jul 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Shock finding in Covid vaccine study of more than 1 million people
> 
> 
> A new study claims the Pfizer Covid vaccine has a similar blood clotting risk rate to the AstraZeneca jab. Find out what the experts are saying.
> ...


Everytime someone bring that up, I ask them if they have ever seen guys play beach volley ball. Then, I ask if they know it's an Olympic sport. Then I ask if they think someone who Silver Medaled in Beach Volleyball is in pretty good shape. Then I show them this:
 "_The 46-year-old, turned away from overwhelmed hospitals in Brazil's northeastern city of Fortaleza late last week, said his symptoms had begun to ease.
"I almost died on Friday night," Araujo said.
"I'm still having a hard time breathing but at least I no longer have fever, maybe because I'm on medication." _"


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> Everytime someone bring that up, I ask them if they have ever seen guys play beach volley ball. Then, I ask if they know it's an Olympic sport. Then I ask if they think someone who Silver Medaled in Beach Volleyball is in pretty good shape. Then I show them this:
> "_The 46-year-old, turned away from overwhelmed hospitals in Brazil's northeastern city of Fortaleza late last week, said his symptoms had begun to ease.
> "I almost died on Friday night," Araujo said.
> "I'm still having a hard time breathing but at least I no longer have fever, maybe because I'm on medication." _"



I understand there are individual case stories that are severe, I even mentioned my own. But statistically speaking if you are young and not obese and healthy overall, 99% chance you will just get sniffles. By young I mean like 35 and under.

I mean its clear the vaccines work, 98% of people in hospitals with covid are unvaccinated, I mean that alone shows they work, breakthrough cases or not. So I am an advocate for the vaccine. Just saying it's important to try to see it from their point of view too... but I agree... better safe than sorry. Especially since Covid is such an odd beast...









						How the coronavirus infects cells — and why Delta is so dangerous
					

Scientists are unpicking the life cycle of SARS-CoV-2 and how the virus uses tricks to evade detection.




					www.nature.com
				




I read this article this morning, watching some of the 'gifs' and other animations in this article is kind of interesting... Covid is truly... well I don't think we ever seen anything like it after reading this article. It's quite scary imo.

I just wish to god my online job would go to full time so I could get stable and setup at a camper away from people near a lake with a kayak and enjoy my life. That's all I want.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I understand there are individual case stories that are severe, I even mentioned my own. But statistically speaking if you are young and not obese and healthy overall, 99% chance you will just get sniffles. By young I mean like 35 and under.









30-39 age group had 0.74 hospitalizations per 100k a few weeks ago. While 60-69 age-group had 1.29 hospitalizations per 100k in the same time period.

Age gives you some protection, but... its really not much. The main thing age helps with is *death*, but the rates of hospitalization are closer than your post suggests. Data from: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 210438
> 
> 
> 30-39 age group had 0.74 hospitalizations per 100k a few weeks ago. While 60-69 age-group had 1.29 hospitalizations per 100k in the same time period.
> ...



yeah, it does seem Delta has changed the game some. Read that Nature article I linked. Delta is scarier than shit when you understand the actual science that article shows. I watched the spike gif for like 5 mins, watching it figure out how to enter the cell... weird as crap. It's so alien. haha

My final note is simple, I do believe the mRNA vaccine is way to go. honestly i feel so much more comfortable now having it. not as afraid all the time.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

Hi,
I haven't noticed any real travel restrictions that would limit or prevent any of this presently or future 
Seem to have read some are actually being relaxed just for getting the vaccine where as delta don't give a shit if one has it or not.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

_More than 97% of people getting hospitalized with Covid-19 now are unvaccinated, Walensky said last week.

And 99.5% of deaths are among the unvaccinated, US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said Sunday._

I mean these are the only stats I need really that confirm I am glad I got the vaccine. That being said, I hope if I do travel they keep enforcing masks for everyone on the plane... if they stop doing that, I may not fly to visit my friends after all. It makes a lot of sense imo... being confined together in a tin can for 6 hours  breathing in very close proximity. 









						Why the Delta variant is spreading so much faster than other coronavirus strains
					

Worldwide, there is an alarming surge in coronavirus cases -- and health experts say  a key factor in this latest wave is the highly contagious Delta variant.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> I haven't noticed any real travel restrictions that would limit or prevent any of this presently or future
> Seem to have read some are actually being relaxed just for getting the vaccine where as delta don't give a shit if one has it or not.



US States aren't authorized to close off our boarders with other states. Airplane traffic / public transit remains a 100% masked environment, as before. (We never got to take off our masks in public transit in the USA).

I mean, the virus is here in the country. There's no point closing our borders at this point (although other countries may want to close their borders to us...).


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> US States aren't authorized to close off our boarders with other states. Airplane traffic / public transit remains a 100% masked environment, as before. (We never got to take off our masks in public transit in the USA).
> 
> I mean, the virus is here in the country. There's no point closing our borders at this point (although other countries may want to close their borders to us...).



Unless a new variant shows up, then we should close borders, but we haven't really been able to do that even once effectively, and UK was not able to stop Delta, they took their sweet time closing and it was to late by the time they blocked off India... it's just yeah... we just have to have to hope this is the worst it gets. I'm still betting on 40% chance we get a horrible mutation of it that spreads easier than Delta and kills millions more than the other variants combined. Time will tell, I hope I am wrong, but I am glad I have a 3 month supply of food regardless. huhuhu


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> US States aren't authorized to close off our boarders with other states. Airplane traffic / public transit remains a 100% masked environment, as before. (We never got to take off our masks in public transit in the USA).
> 
> *I mean, the virus is here in the country. There's no point closing our borders at this point (although other countries may want to close their borders to us...).*


Hi,
And it why we have delta now lol it flew in from India didn't it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> And it why we have delta now lol it flew in from India didn't it.



It flew into the UK too, except they have a 80% vaccination rate and just don't give a care. (EDIT out curse word)

Its an issue because various states decided to give up after reaching 35% vaccination rates.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> It flew into the UK too, except they have a 80% vaccination rate and just don't give a fuck.
> 
> Its an issue because various states decided to give up after reaching 35% vaccination rates.


Hi,
So you should admit travel policies are a fucking joke atm


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> So you should admit travel policies are a fucking joke atm



Travel restrictions worked in Taiwan for over a year. But vaccines are clearly the better solution. The problem with travel policies is that someone messes up eventually. And the bigger the country, the easier it is to mess up.









Posted these maps a few days ago. You can see where the problem is occurring. We know what the problem is: the low vaccination rates in various areas.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

Hi,
But delta doesn't care if one is vaccinated or not you'd still get it and pass it on.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> But delta doesn't care if one is vaccinated or not you'd still get it and pass it on.



You're welcome to ignore the maps and continue to post one-sentence assertions, but you're not really helping your side of the argument when you do that. If you wish to demonstrate the fact, please post evidence.

Delta does spread among the vaccinated, but the vaccinated don't get sick. As such, its only really a problem for the unvaccinated population (which remains sizable in this country). We can clearly see from the vaccination maps above (remember: Delta is over 90% of cases here in the USA. Stats from July 27th, I screenshotted those posts a few days ago but that's basically all Delta right now).


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 30, 2021)

Global travel is how we have a global pandemic. Few countries actually closed their border. NZ was one. Population of 5 million, 26 deaths.

UK kept borders open - UK had terrible policy, all over the place. Thing is, you can't keep borders shut. But vaccinations that keep deaths and hospitalisations way, way down are the only real way to control Covid.

Also, the unvaccinated masses are mo reliable to have Covid, and therefore spread it. The more people are vaccinated, the more the virus ability to spread is weakened. But vaccines wont keep it away if you are exposed to it in a large enough dose. But compared to an unvaccinated person, your chances of severe illness are incredibly small.


----------



## 64K (Jul 30, 2021)

The more I read the more confident I am in the vaccine. If they recommend a third dose of vaccine then I will get it. There are possible side effects like Bell's Palsy but that doesn't bother me much since it is a relatively rare side effect and most recover within a few weeks.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You're welcome to ignore the maps and continue to post one-sentence assertions, but you're not really helping your side of the argument when you do that. If you wish to demonstrate the fact, please post evidence.
> 
> Delta does spread among the vaccinated, but the vaccinated don't get sick. As such, its only really a problem for the unvaccinated population (which remains sizable in this country). We can clearly see from the vaccination maps above (remember: Delta is over 90% of cases here in the USA. Stats from July 27th, I screenshotted those posts a few days ago but that's basically all Delta right now).


Hi,
You can and will post a bunch of stuff but ignore the obvious real problem 
Travel testing is stupidly inadequate coming in or going out and is why we've been put in this situation for the last year in a half in the first place

But keep putting off the real reason if it makes you feel better it's just lame.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> You can and will post a bunch of stuff but ignore the obvious real problem



The problem is clear and easily indicated by our map data. The lack of vaccines in huge swaths of our country is causing Delta to spread at far higher rates.

Delta is everywhere. Its in UK. Its in Israel. Its in France, its in Germany. The question is *why* is the USA doing so uniquely bad, despite having a better vaccine than most other people in the world? (By every measurement, our mRNA vaccines have more protection). Its simple really: we stopped vaccinating, while other countries continue to vaccinate, albeit slower but... slow and steady is winning the race. They're ahead of us now.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

Hi,
If you need map data and still ignore we and all countries need better testing policies for incoming and outgoing travelers there is no hope for you.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 30, 2021)

@ThrashZone , @dragontamer5788,

I see both points as true. Open borders and crappy screening let it in. Again, New Zealand is the 5 million human study group.

And, tbf, if that had been done, the US, UK, etc would be better. But... Australia is having a bad time controlling it now because although they controlled the borders, their vaccination state is well behind.

Both points are valid.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> If you need map data and still ignore we and all countries need better testing policies for incoming and outgoing travelers there is no hope for you.



Look, as much as I'd like to close my state's borders and prevent Texans and/or Floridians from coming into my safe state, that's against the Constitution.


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 30, 2021)

I mean if you two want to stop bickering, you can laugh at the UK. While India was having its Delta wave, we were allowing people to fly back and forth for various religious festivals and celebrations.

Monumentally short sighted move.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> I mean if you two want to stop bickering, you can laugh at the UK. While India was having its Delta wave, we were allowing people to fly back and forth for various religious festivals and celebrations.
> 
> Monumentally *short sighted move.*


Hi,
Exactly
Burring ones head in the sand saying better testing for some odd reason is impossible for travelers is disturbing to me
But turn around and saying jabbing the world is a piece of cake is illogical this just ignores why we all have this virus in the first place.
I don't need a map to tell me the obvious dude just  switches to local state to state issue lol it's not where this crap originated lol


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Exactly
> Burring ones head in the sand saying better testing for some odd reason is impossible for travelers is disturbing to me
> But turn around and saying jabbing the world is a piece of cake is illogical this just ignores why we all have this virus in the first place.
> I don't need a map to tell me the obvious dude just  switches to local state to state issue lol it's not where this crap originated lol



Exactly which countries would you have prevented entry into the USA? And how exactly would your proposal have been different from Biden's ban on travel from India back in April?









						A Proclamation on the Suspension of Entry as Nonimmigrants of Certain Additional Persons Who Pose a Risk of Transmitting Coronavirus Disease 2019 | The White House
					

The national emergency caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the United States continues to pose a grave threat to our health and




					www.whitehouse.gov
				






> After reviewing the public health situation within the Republic of India, CDC has concluded that proactive measures are required to protect the Nation’s public health from travelers entering the United States from that jurisdiction.
> 
> Given the determination of CDC, working in close coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, described above, I have determined that it is in the interests of the United States to take action to restrict and suspend the entry into the United States, as nonimmigrants, of noncitizens of the United States (“noncitizens”) who were physically present within the Republic of India during the 14‑day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.



That's the thing. Delta was in UK / France / Germany / etc. etc. by this point. We shut the door to India but it still was in our country anyway. Probably from somewhere else. COVID19 may have originated from China but most of the cases in New York came from Europe.

Its not as easy as "ban X country" from travel. This disease travels very quickly between countries.

--------

That's the thing. I know we're still playing the "Travel Restriction" game when and where we can. But it doesn't work as effectively as vaccines. We are trying to use all the tools at our disposal.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

Hi,
I never said Prevent travel
I said better testing for travelers and delays for them
Add it to the cost of the ticket.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> I never said Prevent travel
> I said better testing for travelers and delays for them
> Add it to the cost of the ticket.







__





						Rescission: Requirement for Negative Pre-Departure COVID-19 Test Result or Documentation of Recovery from COVID-19 for all Airline or Other Aircraft Passengers Arriving into the United States from Any Foreign Country   | Quarantine | CDC
					

The CDC issued an Amended Order on October 25, 2021 requiring proof of a negative COVID-19 test or recovery from COVID-19 for all air passengers arriving into the United States.




					www.cdc.gov
				






> Order: Requirement for Proof of Negative COVID-19 Test Result or Recovery from COVID-19 for All Airline Passengers Arriving into the United States​



We're already doing that. All travelers, period, must have a negative test before they come into this country.

So as I've asked before: what exactly would you have changed? We're not only requiring negative tests from all passengers, we're even banning all travelers from certain countries.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

Obviously we need better tests.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Obviously we need better tests.





			https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/pdf/Airline_Testing_Order_Checklist-p.pdf
		


You're not even allowed to use antibody tests to pass the CDC Air-traveler mandate. We've already banned the weaker tests and force the use of the more reliable ones. So unless you invent a new test that no one has ever heard of before, that's it. We got what we got.

I'm not saying that these measures were worthless. I'm sure they slowed down the spread and gave us more time. But clearly, these measures were not the answer to make our country safe. The only way forward is vaccination. Hoping for better tests (or spinning up precious R&D cycles on better testing) seems counterproductive compared to just passing out the vaccine to more people.

-------

Look: this virus is a nightmare to test for. It can hide in the body for multiple days, and tests will deliver false-negatives in that time period. Its just how the virus works. That's why the virus keeps spreading, because the virus hides from us very effectively.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 30, 2021)

If they didn't pick up delta on current tests yes they are not good enough no spin involved it's fact.
Bugger test was never any good.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 30, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> If they didn't pick up delta on current tests yes they are not good enough no spin involved it's fact.
> Bugger test was never any good.



Look, if you invent a new test that has a high rate of success even in the early asymptomatic periods of the virus's inoculation, you probably would instantly become a billionaire. Feel free to invent the test and market it to the world. But otherwise, there's no point complaining about it. I'm not a microbiologist or a biochemical engineer. Its not within my capabilities to make something like that.

COVID19 always evaded detection and hid from our tests. That's why we were freaking out about it last year, its very, very hard to test for. Apparently, it was easier and quicker to make a vaccine than to make a better test. So here we are: we have a vaccine but no good tests yet.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 30, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> @ThrashZone , @dragontamer5788,
> 
> I see both points as true. Open borders and crappy screening let it in. Again, New Zealand is the 5 million human study group.
> 
> ...



I'm assuming New Zealand closed its borders to Australia and everywhere else again by now? Island nations that close off their borders seem to be doing the best. New Zealand is like the only example of this sadly.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm assuming New Zealand closed its borders to Australia and everywhere else again by now? Island nations that close off their borders seem to be doing the best. New Zealand is like the only example of this sadly.



BBC: Covid in Sydney: Military deployed to help enforce lockdown​


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 31, 2021)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/30/vaccination-increases-states-delta-surges/
		


Silver lining: vaccination rates are going up again, especially in states where Delta has surged.

Better late than never I guess. But that vaccine won't be offering even partial protection for another 2 weeks nor full protection for another 5 weeks. They should have started to get vaccinated over a month ago if they wanted to be protected today.



> Vaccine-hesitant pockets of the country turned hot spots, including Louisiana, experienced a 114 percent increase in uptake, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Arkansas recorded a 96 percent increase, Alabama, 65 percent, and Missouri, 49 percent.



Still, it takes ~1 month before someone dies of COVID19. So they'll be getting that full protection roughly as the death-rates spike from this latest surge. All in all, a beneficial move. Again, better late than never.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 31, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Look, if you invent a new test that has a high rate of success even in the early asymptomatic periods of the virus's inoculation, you probably would instantly become a billionaire. Feel free to invent the test and market it to the world. But otherwise, there's no point complaining about it. I'm not a microbiologist or a biochemical engineer. Its not within my capabilities to make something like that.
> 
> COVID19 always evaded detection and hid from our tests. That's why we were freaking out about it last year, its very, very hard to test for. Apparently, it was easier and quicker to make a vaccine than to make a better test. So here we are: we have a vaccine but no good tests yet.


Hi,
Right, now it's all on me to do the work of the experts since they can't lol 

Make as many excuses as you feel you need to why the experts can't do this or that it's just too tough but giving a emergancy jab or two to the planet is ezpz


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 31, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Right, now it's all on me to do the work of the experts since they can't lol



There once was a colony of mice who gathered for a meeting. One belligerent fellow stood up and said "Wouldn't it be nice if the Cat who was hunting us down had a bell on it? To warn us when it was approaching?". The elder mice then said: "Yes it'd be nice. Are you volunteering to put a bell on the cat?". To which the belligerent fellow then sat down. Legend says the cat still terrorizes the mice.

The world only changes when someone puts forth the effort to make the change. Those who complain about the world but fail to make any change to it contribute only as much as that belligerent mouse in the story.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 31, 2021)

Hi,
Crap is that another excuse example lol


----------



## claes (Jul 31, 2021)

Covid came to the US before tests existed and before we were aware of its spread in Seattle and NYC. It’s a moot point as it would’ve spread regardless. We could talk about having ended non-essential interstate travel but then we may as well have shut down the country for two months and let the virus die out. Or longer, until we had a vaccine or better tests.

edit: aside, here’s that CDC report:








						C.D.C. Internal Report Calls Delta Variant as Contagious as Chickenpox (Published 2021)
					

Infections in vaccinated Americans are rare, compared with those in unvaccinated people, the document said. But when they occur, vaccinated people may spread the virus just as easily.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> BBC: Covid in Sydney: Military deployed to help enforce lockdown​



I think only 8 deaths is a mistake to close everything down... I understand its serious, but also so are people not being able to financially survive. (I'd say enforce masks more heavily is better answer)

I don't understand why it is taking Australia so long to get covid shots to older and vulnerable people. Also, if Covid is here to stay forever, Pfizer and Moderna should have worked together with other countries to create a new mega facility that is capable of like 2 billion doses a year manufactured. Short term greed sure is a bitch sometimes. There is no reason all those top dogs couldn't work together to solve the issue of supply.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 31, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I think only 8 deaths is a mistake to close everything down... I understand its serious, but also so are people not being able to financially survive. (I'd say enforce masks more heavily is better answer)
> 
> I don't understand why it is taking Australia so long to get covid shots to older and vulnerable people. Also, if Covid is here to stay forever, Pfizer and Moderna should have worked together with other countries to create a new mega facility that is capable of like 2 billion doses a year manufactured. Short term greed sure is a bitch sometimes. There is no reason all those top dogs couldn't work together to solve the issue of supply.


Well to me its interesting because reported cases

7-day avg is below 200

7-day avg in one of our counties with 2million less people is 2,000 with 52% full vax

So it stood out to me.


As far as big pharma goes. They should know when the drop off period was. P3 stated over a year and it took the Israel study to get a confirmation for the 6month drop off. Makes people uneasy when information is held off.


----------



## HTC (Jul 31, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> *I think only 8 deaths is a mistake to close everything down... I understand its serious, but also so are people not being able to financially survive.* (I'd say enforce masks more heavily is better answer)
> 
> I don't understand why it is taking Australia so long to get covid shots to older and vulnerable people. Also, if Covid is here to stay forever, Pfizer and Moderna should have worked together with other countries to create a new mega facility that is capable of like 2 billion doses a year manufactured. Short term greed sure is a bitch sometimes. There is no reason all those top dogs couldn't work together to solve the issue of supply.



By having hard measures early, you also have them *for a much smaller time frame* so, it's actually cheaper to go this route than it is to wait until you have a lot more cases before doing so because it will also cause the need for the measures to* be enforced for a longer period, thus more expensive*.

There is precedence with this and COVID with New Zealand: they *acted early and hard* and thus their lockdown lasted a short while, so it was not AS PRICEY as longer lockdowns have been for other countries AND their people.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 31, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Crap is that another excuse example lol


It's the truth.  Why are you being so argumentitive here?  That was as generalized as you can make something.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 31, 2021)

Bloomberg: CDC Scaled Back Hunt for Breakthrough Cases Just as the Delta Variant Grew​


> But in the months since, the number of vaccine breakthrough cases has grown, as has the risk that they present. And while the CDC has stopped tracking such cases, many states have not. Bloomberg gathered data from 35 states and identified 111,748 vaccine breakthrough cases through the end of July, more than 10 times the CDC’s end-of-April tally.


----------



## Caring1 (Jul 31, 2021)

64K said:


> The more I read the more confident I am in the vaccine. If they recommend a third dose of vaccine then I will get it. There are possible side effects like Bell's Palsy but that doesn't bother me much since it is a relatively rare side effect and most recover within a few weeks.


I've had Bell's Palsy and eating and drinking through a straw for weeks is no fun.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 31, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> I've had Bell's Palsy and eating and drinking through a straw for weeks is no fun.



I would need to see the numbers to know how I feel about another shot. I mean we have what a billion people on Earth that have had Pfizer now and what 500 bells palsy cases? If those are the numbers, then the odds of me winning the biggest lottery in history 100x over... 

Again, I don't know the exact numbers, but yeah if they are to high... then I would pass


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 31, 2021)

Here's why you're waiting months for that couch you ordered
					

Get ready to wait months, maybe even into 2022, for that new sofa to arrive at your doorstep.




					www.cnn.com
				




there is a suspected new variant of Covid-19 yet unidentified in Vietnam. June - Vietnam had low hundreds of cases, and end of July almost 10,000.

it must not be Delta, cause the article says unidentified. so who knows. lol  again... very very happy I have a 3-4 month of supply of food on rotation... someday the mutation is going to be just right to bring everything to a screeching halt.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 31, 2021)

I guess this is the one that scared CDC. Barnstable County, Massachusetts. 

Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MA DPH)


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 31, 2021)

This thread looks like a tug of war between vaccine doubt and vaccine confirmation.

Delta arrived after the vaccines were created. Delta has a mutation on the spike part of its body (as well as other changes). This makes it more transmissible. Even for vaccines.

However, and what is the important part, is that every expert agrees that vaccines are reducing deaths and severe illness. They're doing what they're meant to.

Boosters, and/or exposure to the virus will further boost antibodies. 

It's funny. Last year, the Covid arguments revolved around how bad it was. "It's just the flu". It was treated in some quarters as a fuss over nothing. Now the arguments are over vaccines not reducing spread. Well, they do, but they don't prevent it. Gone is the death component of the Covid argument.

But, if we apply last year's legacy denial; that Covid isn't serious, then the logic is pretty clear. Vaccines make Covid a trivial concern. Sure, you might get it. But you'll almost certainly not die compared to last year's surges.

Vaccines are doing what they're meant to do. But Covid is still with us. Always will be.


----------



## Ahhzz (Jul 31, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> I've had Bell's Palsy and eating and drinking through a straw for weeks is no fun.


Beats the hell out of not being able to eat or drink at all because you're on a vent


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 31, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> Beats the hell out of not being able to eat or drink at all because you're on a vent


Ah, 2021, what high standards you set...


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 31, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It's the truth.  Why are you being so argumentative here?  That was as generalized as you can make something.


Hi,
I'm really not I've been asked to come up with better testing methods for travelers instead of the cdc or pharma "you know the experts" doing it instead 
So yeah that was a tad shocking and all the excuses is really over the top too.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 31, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> I'm really not I've been asked to come up with better testing methods for travelers instead of the cdc or pharma "you know the experts" doing it instead
> So yeah that was a tad shocking and all the excuses is really over the top too.


I mean you were complaining about their methods like you had a better idea, so it wasn't a huge leap of logic.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 31, 2021)

This is the CT values of those from BC MA, MADPH which lead to CDC saying fully vaccinated can be just as transmissible


----------



## the54thvoid (Jul 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> This is the CT values of those from BC MA, MADPH which lead to CDC saying fully vaccinated can be just as transmissible
> View attachment 210581



Took a while to find the source item. But I got the gist via this:









						Barnstable Covid-19 Outbreak: Fully Vaccinated Can Spread Coronavirus Delta Variant, Says CDC
					

74% of the SARS-CoV2 infections were in fully vaccinated persons. This doesn't mean that the Covid-19 don't offer protection but it means that Covid-19 vaccines alone may not be enough right now.




					www.forbes.com
				




Notably, I'll quote this excerpt from the Forbes article:



> Now before you say, “see this shows that the Covid-19 vaccine doesn’t help,” take your right hand, use this hand reach to for a pie (any pie will do), grab the pie, and then push the pie firmly into your face. Seeing more fully vaccinated people get infected does not mean that fully vaccinated people are more likely to get infected. That would be like going into a Comic-Con, throwing baklava at everyone and then saying that in general people who are dressed like Superman or Supergirl are more likely to be hit with baklava. *Keep in mind that 69% of eligible Massachusetts residents had been fully vaccinated. Chances are you would have more fully vaccinated people in Barnstable County than unvaccinated people. Therefore, it’s not surprising that more of those infected were fully vaccinated.*



There's this stat (in red):





And this statement from former Baltimore Commisioner for Health:





Again - people rarely die from Covid after having the vaccinations. And it is harder to catch it. (Certain samples are tainted by very high numbers of vaccinated subjects). If a sample of people returns the folllowing: 100 were infected, 50 were vaxxed, 50 were not - that looks pretty bad. But when you learn that group came from a sample of 500, where 400 were vaxxed and 100 were not, you see a very different statictic. Out of 400 vaxxed, 50 were infected (12.5%). Out of 100 unvaxxed, 50 were infected (50%).

The proportion of people vaccinated in a sample size will skew the results. It's important to understand the statictics underneath any report. And, as the Forbes article says, the more people in a sample size are vaccinated, the higher the ratio of 'positive' results will occur.


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 31, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> There's this stat (in red):



Well of course. Its older people who have to worry about succumbing to it



			
				CDC said:
			
		

> Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated; of these, 301 (87%) were male, with a median age of 42 years. Vaccine products received by persons experiencing breakthrough infections were Pfizer-BioNTech (159; 46%), Moderna (131; 38%), and Janssen (56; 16%); among fully vaccinated persons in the Massachusetts general population, 56% had received Pfizer-BioNTech, 38% had received Moderna, and 7% had received Janssen vaccine products.


----------



## HTC (Jul 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Well of course. Its older people who have to worry about succumbing to it
> 
> 
> View attachment 210596



Are there statistics like these but for hospitalized, with / without ICU?


----------



## Xzibit (Jul 31, 2021)

HTC said:


> Are there statistics like these but for hospitalized, with / without ICU?



Those are CDC numbers but I don't see them splitting them up by Hospitalization / ICU.  You have to look locally at State or County reporting


----------



## HTC (Jul 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Those are CDC numbers but I don't see them splitting them up by Hospitalization / ICU.  You have to look locally at State or County reporting



I C.

I just think it would be very useful to look @ this from a hospitalization perspective, instead of from a fatalities perspective. After all, it's the hospitalizations that drive the need for lockdowns in the 1st place.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 31, 2021)

HTC said:


> I C.
> 
> I just think it would be very useful to look @ this from a hospitalization perspective, instead of from a fatalities perspective. After all, it's the hospitalizations that drive the need for lockdowns in the 1st place.



yeah I agree with this. hospitalization and deaths = vaccinated = no risk basically statistically speaking, meaning if your society is vaccinated economy won't have to shut down again due to hospitals being overwhelmed


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 1, 2021)

HTC said:


> I C.
> 
> I just think it would be very useful to look @ this from a hospitalization perspective, instead of from a fatalities perspective. After all, it's the hospitalizations that drive the need for lockdowns in the 1st place.



They way they count Hospitalizations / ICU or Death can include unrelated Covid cause.  Currently there hasn't been an effort to distinguish.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 1, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> They way they count Hospitalizations / ICU or Death can include unrelated Covid cause.  Currently there hasn't been an effort to distinguish.



I mean if someone dies of diabetic reasons, but they also had covid at the same time, I think it's safe to say covid exacerbated the issues with the diabetes and lead to the death. So I really don't buy your argument. Sure, a small percentage will be miscounted, but I think the vast majority is accurate. You are looking at black and white and not adding in any 'nuance'.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 1, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I mean if someone dies of diabetic reasons, but they also had covid at the same time, I think it's safe to say covid exacerbated the issues with the diabetes and lead to the death. So I really don't buy your argument. Sure, a small percentage will be miscounted, but I think the vast majority is accurate. You are looking at black and white and not adding in any 'nuance'.


I'm not selling you something so you don't have to buy it.



			
				CDC last breakthrough report said:
			
		

> *1,598 (26%) of 6,239 hospitalizations reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.
> †309 (24%) of 1,263 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.



Same with State and county and local reporting. You have to look see how they report it.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 1, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Currently there hasn't been an effort to distinguish.


And honestly I don't see why there should be.


----------



## Bones (Aug 1, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I mean if someone dies of diabetic reasons, but they also had covid at the same time, I think it's safe to say covid exacerbated the issues with the diabetes and lead to the death. So I really don't buy your argument. Sure, a small percentage will be miscounted, but I think the vast majority is accurate. You are looking at black and white and not adding in any 'nuance'.


I will say this:
I've heard it directly from a few in the healthcare industry (Hospitals and so on) alot of the statistics (Deaths due to Covid) aren't being reported properly.

An example is when a person dies in the manner you describe, it's a death and was probrably due to the issues you named in this case BUT _was not *directly*_ due to it, all it did was to exacerbate an already existing issue making it worse, therefore it would have been death due to complications from diabetes with Covid _as a contributing factor_ - *Not* the actual cause of death.
In that case the hospital, because the patient had Covid just reported it as a Covid death and that got added to the statistics.

Then there is also the ones that a cause of death wasn't readily apparent such as a gunshot wound to the head, auto accident with serious injuries, an obvious massive heart attack and so on. Those instead were simply reported as "Covid" caused deaths, whether they tested positive for it or not and this is why.

I do know at one time hospitals were getting around $3,000 per patient death that was caused by Covid and a hospital is just like any other business.
It's there to take care of us BUT also to make money at the same time.
They were given this to help them deal with the patients and to help deal with the pandemic overall, as in support for the costs of just doing it.

So to get the $$, they would determine the cause of death if not readily apparent to Covid, get paid - Done.
And it's not like the family will dig up the corpse later and examine it themselves, they will just accept it because we have a "Pandemic" and move on. 

I heard that _directly_ from a few that worked in a hospital in various departments and I do consider the sources to be "Good" as in I trust those I heard it from.
You can try to pass it off as "This sort of thing will happen" because it obviously does but the extent said to me was well beyond just a few isolated cases in more than one place too.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 1, 2021)

Bones said:


> I will say this:
> I've heard it directly from a few in the healthcare industry (Hospitals and so on) alot of the statistics (Deaths due to Covid) aren't being reported properly.
> 
> An example is when a person dies in the manner you describe, it's a death and was probrably due to the issues you named in this case BUT _was not *directly*_ due to it, all it did was to exacerbate an already existing issue making it worse, therefore it would have been death due to complications from diabetes with Covid _as a contributing factor_ - *Not* the actual cause of death.
> In that case the hospital, because the patient had Covid just reported it as a Covid death and that got added to the statistics.



what are you even talking about, all the new medicines for diabetes and stuff even for type 2 the new injections they have etc, diabetes rarely even leads to death anything unless very old age --- in fact scientists are very confused why people with diabetes are outliving their peer groups, that is why they are studying the drug metformin in massive studies right now, this drug called metformin vast vast majority of type 2 diabetes people take is most likely causing them to live longer, its made from a flower and apparently it has anti aging properties.

so yes... covid is what killed people in those specific situations or the vast majority of them at least. most people with type 2 live normally or get a amputation and end up taking it more seriously after that... etc.

your logic makes no sense in this particular quote imo. I agree with you on the other stuff, but not the diabetes one.


----------



## Bones (Aug 1, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> 1: what are you even talking about, all the new medicines for diabetes and stuff even for type 2 the new injections they have etc, diabetes rarely even leads to death anything unless very old age --- in fact scientists are very confused why people with diabetes are outliving their peer groups, that is why they are studying the drug metformin in massive studies right now, this drug called metformin vast vast majority of type 2 diabetes people take is most likely causing them to live longer, its made from a flower and apparently it has anti aging properties.
> 
> 2: so yes... covid is what killed people in those specific situations or the vast majority of them at least. most people with type 2 live normally or get a amputation and end up taking it more seriously after that... etc.
> 
> 3: your logic makes no sense in this particular quote imo. I agree with you on the other stuff, but not the diabetes one.


*1: *I must disagree, esp since it's been known about and around since it was discovered back in 1922:
Metformin - Wikipedia
I know it's possible even today for studies to be done but I seriously doubt on the scale you describe.

*2: *And again I disagree, you *can* have a disease acting as a contributor to an already bad/deadly disease without it being THE direct cause of death. In those cases Covid probrably did cause some directly but if the existing disease/disorder is bad enough already, it's like that last straw on the camel's back.
By that it's just enough to tip the scales and it's over making such a contributor, not the actual thing (Root cause) that killed them. Cause of death if stated correctly always declares the root cause and will name any contributing causes as just that.

It's like being shot and the bullet is still there.
The bullet itself made the wound and while the damage done by it alone may be survivable, then you can have a case of lead poisoning along with infection of the wound taking place because of it.
Although it may seem logical to say in the end the poisoning, either by the lead or infection caused the death, the bullet itself was the root cause with the rest contributing.

To put it simply; if not shot in the first place none of the rest would have happened.

The initial condition (The wound from the bullet) being bad yet survivable _on it's own_.
The others came along after and contributed further to the deterioration of the person health, all of it together leading to their eventual demise.

3: And I'll say it like I have before - Just because my "Logic" doesn't make sense to YOU doesn't mean it's wrong either.
I will say I can be wrong like anyone else because that would be wrong in itself, but at the same time your way of thinking isn't the same as mine. I'm not going to declare what you say as not making sense just because it doesn't to ME, it's all a matter of perception and that varies from person to person.
What you may see, I may not and vice-versa.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 1, 2021)

UK stats use the figure of 'a death recorded within 28 days of a positive Covid test'. If you're not tested (me, for example), and die of Covid, it's not a Covid death. Autopsy might record it as such, but I think we use that as a secondary, informal measure.

As far as a contributory death, it's this simple: in many cases, a treatable and survivable illness becomes a death sentence with Covid. The virus (in a severe case) causes blood oxygen levels to plummet. That's treatable with oxygen (and intubation). But, if there was already another condition underlying, it's pretty much fatal.

I think folk pay too much attention to over-reporting, when you also have massive under-reporting. Its far too easy to dismiss Covid's prevalence and threat.

But, I don't think we should be monitoring cases anymore. I'd only test symptomatic 'cases' and follow the UK method.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 1, 2021)

14 cases, two deaths, seems to be about the average rate here now.








						Taiwan confirms 12 new local COVID cases, two deaths  | Taiwan News | 2021-08-01 14:27:00
					

Eight local cases have known sources of infection, while four have unknown sources  | 2021-08-01 14:27:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw
				




Got my first jab yesterday, courtesy of AZ from Japan. Feeling sore as today...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 1, 2021)

Bones said:


> I will say this:
> I've heard it directly from a few in the healthcare industry (Hospitals and so on) alot of the statistics (Deaths due to Covid) aren't being reported properly.
> 
> An example is when a person dies in the manner you describe, it's a death and was probrably due to the issues you named in this case BUT _was not *directly*_ due to it, all it did was to exacerbate an already existing issue making it worse, therefore it would have been death due to complications from diabetes with Covid _as a contributing factor_ - *Not* the actual cause of death.
> In that case the hospital, because the patient had Covid just reported it as a Covid death and that got added to the statistics.



And my roommate is *literally* one of the people who are collecting those death certificates and collating them into the national statistics. The emphasis is that the *doctors* are the ones ultimately responsible for determining if COVID19 is a primary cause of death or not.



			https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/DEATH11-03final-ACC.pdf
		


Here is the CDC's example death certificate. Unfortunately, the 50 states all have 50 slightly different death certificates... but the part that matters for this discussion ("Cause of Death") is consistently reported. Lets take a look at it:






The fact of the matter is that COVID19 is almost never the IMMEDIATE CAUSE of death. The IMMEDIATE CAUSE is a *heart attack*, or *lung failure*. In fact, even "b" would be that famous cytokine storm if we're talking about lung failure.





Here's an example death certificate. Now think about it: we have a death caused by "Acute respiratory distress syndrome" (aka: lungs just stopped breathing and the patient died). A common condition such as Asthma almost certainly will be listed as a comorbidity. COVID19 itself will also be listed by a comorbidity. (No one "dies of COVID19" directly. That's just not how the disease works)

At the end of the day: the *doctor* is responsible for filling this form out. No one at the CDC changes this form when it gets there. If the doctor says that COVID19 is part of the "death chain" so to speak, then who is the CDC to argue with the doctor? Here's the thing: if the doctor fails to mention COVID19 on this form, then there's no way for the CDC to otherwise know if the death was related to COVID19 or not. This is the form that the CDC gets, and uses to count its statistics.

-------------

So yes. There's a bit of debate and inconsistency involved in the process. These forms aren't as standardized as you'd like. The USA's state-system means that each state is setting the standards, and each state is telling its doctors *different* standards and guidance. The CDC works to make a big "from the top" official guidance, but there's no enforcement mechanism available. Its ultimately comes down to the individual doctor to do the right thing and fill out the form correctly.



the54thvoid said:


> I think folk pay too much attention to over-reporting, when you also have massive under-reporting. Its far too easy to dismiss Covid's prevalence and threat.



The morbidity department is noticing an uptick in pneumonia-deaths without COVID19, suggesting that a number of doctors are reporting pneumonia but not COVID19. The general consensus is that COVID19 is grossly under-reported as a cause of death actually.






						Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
					

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.




					www.cdc.gov
				




--------

It does seem like the UK is also having this issue: where you guys are seeing a far higher number of pneumonia deaths last year than expected (when factoring in the official COVID19 counts). This suggests that a number of people are dying of lung failure that are NOT getting reported as COVID19 deaths. So I bet that its an undercount over in the UK as well. We probably will never really know the real number of people who died of COVID19. All of this shit is just estimations. We make the best estimate based off of the data collected.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 1, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> It does seem like the UK is also having this issue: where you guys are seeing a far higher number of pneumonia deaths last year than expected (when factoring in the official COVID19 counts). This suggests that a number of people are dying of lung failure that are NOT getting reported as COVID19 deaths. So I bet that its an undercount over in the UK as well. We probably will never really know the real number of people who died of COVID19. All of this shit is just estimations. We make the best estimate based off of the data collected.



In the UK there is Guidance on Covid-19 Death Certificate

It is different then ours and Covid-19 is Acceptable Direct cause of death.


> Covid-19 is an *acceptable direct* or underlying cause of death for the purposes of completing the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death


Test result or confirmation isn't required for certification


> If you are aware that a virology test for Covid-19 has been carried out, state the result if known, for example ‘Covid-19 (positive test)’. However, *certification should not be delayed to await the availability of test results*.


They even provide an example


> For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death



-

In the US we also have guidance on Covid-19 Death Certificates from the CDC but like you pointed out they are slight differences due to our many state/local health departments












> In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible.



We also accept unconfirmed Covid-19 to the tally


> Ideally, testing for COVID–19 should be conducted, but *it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate without this confirmation* if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 1, 2021)

UK scientists believe it is 'almost certain' a coronavirus variant will emerge that beats current vaccines | CNN
					

British academics believe it is "almost certain" that a SARS-Cov-2 variant will emerge that "leads to current vaccine failure." SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes Covid-19.




					www.cnn.com
				




UK Scientists are certain a strain of Covid will come that will beat the vaccines.

Lovely decade we have ahead of us lads!!! YEEEEHAAAA  Welcome to the Time of Madness!


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 1, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> UK scientists believe it is 'almost certain' a coronavirus variant will emerge that beats current vaccines | CNN
> 
> 
> British academics believe it is "almost certain" that a SARS-Cov-2 variant will emerge that "leads to current vaccine failure." SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes Covid-19.
> ...


Sure, but both Moderna and Pfizer have already been working on new vaccines, plus, the advantage of mRNA vaccines are that they can be quickly transformed by changing the sequence.

All if not lost. In fact, I think in the future, it will be just a regular (single) jab annually. Might be combined with the flu vaccine too.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 1, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Sure, but both Moderna and Pfizer have already been working on new vaccines, plus, the advantage of mRNA vaccines are that they can be quickly transformed by changing the sequence.
> 
> All if not lost. In fact, I think in the future, it will be just a regular (single) jab annually. Might be combined with the flu vaccine too.



It's also possible the risk of Bell's Palsy, Myocardia, etc will increase in number in those new hypothetical shots too, we simply don't know yet.

I'd rather figure out a way to keep working remote but make it full time and just live closer to nature personally. I always found humans overrated even before Covid. Problem is making my part time online job into a full time one... that is my only problem right now, and its frustrating cause I see no way to make it happen lol


----------



## HTC (Aug 1, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Sure, but *both Moderna and Pfizer have already been working on new vaccines, plus, the advantage of mRNA vaccines are that they can be quickly transformed by changing the sequence*.
> 
> All if not lost. In fact, I think in the future, it will be just a regular (single) jab annually. Might be combined with the flu vaccine too.



That's not the problem: the problem is having them available fast enough that we avoid yet another mutation that can beat the new vaccines, thus making the cycle repeat itself.

If we're lucky, a new mutation that beats the vaccines isn't as bad from a hospitalization perspective but, if we're not lucky ...

What if a new mutation drives to hospitals 10 times more people than Delta AND beats the vaccines? What then?

We *MUST* find ways to produce the vaccines *A LOT FASTER* so that we can vaccinate enough people to achieve herd immunity BEFORE that even has A CHANCE to happen.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 2, 2021)

HTC said:


> We *MUST* find ways to produce the vaccines *A LOT FASTER* so that we can vaccinate enough people to achieve herd immunity BEFORE that even has A CHANCE to happen.



yep I agree, this is why I mentioned Moderna and Pfizer should be working together to create a new mega facility and increase supply chain safely, before something REALLY BAD does happen. Short term greed blinds all of us though, so eh. I doubt it will happen, we will get a bad variant and instead of being able to churn out 200 million shots overnight, we will have lockdowns for another month, until the economy collapse and the dollar loses its value even more. 

Hopefully we get lucky and the next mutations are weaker for some reason, we might get lucky, but I doubt it. Nature is nature... but I suspect this came from a lab personally, an accident to be sure... but something about it all seems off to me, the way it behaves.


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 2, 2021)

I am not worried about the the manufacturing parts. Manufacturing can always be scaled up. But the problem is the people. Right now there are still so many in the US that refused to get vaccinated, and frankly, we are wasting vaccines here that can be better used by sending to other countries, and thus causing this prolong suffering around the world, and allowing the virus to mutate. However, I believe the government officials are worried about not having enough vaccines at home that we can't send them oversea yet.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 2, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I believe the government officials are worried about not having enough vaccines at home that we can't send them oversea yet.



yeah this is government being dumb basically. there is no reason you can't scale back the deliveries for USA places, but still make the deliveries in USA, and divert majority of vaccines abroad.


----------



## HTC (Aug 2, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published Saturday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 50054 active cases --- *4343 less --- 592 less per day*
- 903514 recovered --- 21944 more --- 3135 more per day
- 173692 fatalities --- 77 more --- 11 more per day
- 970937 confirmed infected --- 17878 more --- 2554 more per day

- 15214294 tests taken --- 445984 more --- 63712 more per day but was last updated July 29th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 1656793 vaccinated --- 653250 more --- last updated last today but that corresponds to 6728793 1st doses + 4927955 2nd doses
- 923 hospitalized ---44 more --- 6 more per day
- 200 in ICU --- 7 more --- 1 more per day

Week fatalities decreased VS last week but are still above 10 daily fatalities. The R number finally *decreased* to below 1.0, with it now being 0.98 on average. Roughly 66.8% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 48.7% are fully vaccinated.

The new daily cases FINALLY dropped significantly: let's hope they continue to drop further.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 2, 2021)

it's amazing to me this all could have ended by end of July 2020 if all nation states simply agreed no more airplanes for anything, no more ships or boats, full lockdown of entire world for 30 days.  covid = gone  

but humans are too greedy or stupid to ever think in these terms. lol sad

Delta is on fire where I live, lots of people getting Delta in my state. businesses with no help today signs, etc. one of students told me she had to close down her business cause two employees tested positive yesterday. 

Covid is not done with us yet. We think it is done, we feel a bit of reprieve, but I would bet money Covid future mutations, damage to the economy, etc etc all together it's going to be the end of us. The days of prosperity I mean, not the end of us literally, but I mean the days of prosperity for the mass (utilitarian pov) the wealthy will still do just fine.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 2, 2021)

HTC said:


> The new daily cases FINALLY dropped significantly: let's hope they continue to drop further.



COVID19 seems to have a "strong" trend. When its going up, it feels unstoppable. But when its going down, we are all super cautious about it and don't want to "jinx" our good fortunes.

I think its a time to be optimistic however. A downward trend probably will stay downward unless major changes take place (ex: a new mutation comes out). Since you're in a downtrend, I think its time to be optimistic.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 2, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> COVID19 seems to have a "strong" trend. When its going up, it feels unstoppable. But when its going down, we are all super cautious about it and don't want to "jinx" our good fortunes.
> 
> I think its a time to be optimistic however. A downward trend probably will stay downward unless major changes take place (ex: a new mutation comes out). Since you're in a downtrend, I think its time to be optimistic.











						Most COVID deaths in England now are in the vaccinated – here's why that shouldn't alarm you
					

The latest UK data shows that nearly two-thirds of people who died of COVID between February 1 and June 21 had been vaccinated.




					theconversation.com
				




_The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness._

I just read this article, and that quote is at the bottom of the article... I don't get what I just read, this sentence sounds like failed logic.


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## Tatty_One (Aug 2, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> it's amazing to me this all could have ended by end of July 2020 if all nation states simply agreed no more airplanes for anything, no more ships or boats, full lockdown of entire world for 30 days.  covid = gone
> 
> but humans are too greedy or stupid to ever think in these terms. lol sad
> 
> ...


It took a little over 2 years for the Spanish Flu (H1N1) to run it's course without a vaccine, a third of the planet's population got infected, it came in 4 waves and mankind was saved (kind of in the worst extreme) by a milder variant of the virus, international travel was a small fraction of what it is now and estimated death toll was anywhere in the realms of 50 - 75 million, to think that a global 30 day lockdown would have solved this current baby without a vaccine being available in July 2020 is just a tad optimistic


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 2, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I just read this article, and that quote is at the bottom of the article... I don't get what I just read, this sentence sounds like failed logic.



Simpson's paradox.

I projected that people will start falling for Simpson's paradox on this issue some time ago. But the tl;dr is that population dynamics and population statistics are very complicated, and trying to get things down to a single number leads to apparent paradoxes.





Simpson's paradox is the black-line. We can see that age 55 people have less success in Basketball than Age 10 people. We can also see that height is an advantage in basketball.

However: when we "combine" the populations, suddenly the black-line forms. It looks like additional height gives a disadvantage. That's not the case at all! Height is clearly an advantage in basketball (height within a young person is an advantage vs height against another young person... and height with an old-person is an advantage against height against another old person). But old people tend to be much taller than young people, and the age difference is a bigger factor.

So, given the information above, would you say taller people are worse at basketball? Given this made up study consisting of 10-year olds and 55-year-olds, you might come to that conclusion (aka, the black line). You need to collate the data more carefully (the red and blue lines) to find the truth.


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## HTC (Aug 2, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> COVID19 seems to have a "strong" trend. When its going up, it feels unstoppable. But when its going down, we are all super cautious about it and don't want to "jinx" our good fortunes.
> 
> I think its a time to be optimistic however. A downward trend probably will stay downward unless major changes take place (ex: a new mutation comes out). Since you're in a downtrend, I think its time to be optimistic.



Now that our R number is FINALLY below 1, i expect the number of daily cases to drop even more substantially.

Because i have been posting 7 day numbers and their daily averages, we can definitely get a sense of the trend.


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## Tatty_One (Aug 3, 2021)

HTC said:


> Now that our R number is FINALLY below 1, i expect the number of daily cases to drop even more substantially.
> 
> Because i have been posting 7 day numbers and their daily averages, we can definitely get a sense of the trend.


I think we are maybe 4 weeks ahead of most in terms of a Delta infection rate of 99% of all cases, so what you are seeing is really good in terms of slowing it down, we have reduced cases by around 60% but that downward trend only started 2 or 3 weeks ago, it shows really for us just how much transmission was happening in schools, kids have now been off school for 2 or 3 weeks, I have been pleasantly surprised by the turnaround considering that in England there are no restrictions on anything since mid July apart from most international travel.


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## Space Lynx (Aug 3, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> I think we are maybe 4 weeks ahead of most in terms of a Delta infection rate of 99% of all cases, so what you are seeing is really good in terms of slowing it down, we have reduced cases by around 60% but that downward trend only started 2 or 3 weeks ago, it shows really for us just how much transmission was happening in schools, kids have now been off school for 2 or 3 weeks, I have been pleasantly surprised by the turnaround considering that in England there are no restrictions on anything since mid July apart from most international travel.



I mean to be fair, like 80% of people have had at least one jab in UK right? Combine that with the idiots who refuse the jab also automatically refuse the mask (comes with the territory), which means that 20% most likely has had it by now... since they are the type to do pub, etc...

So logically it makes sense to conclude UK has possibly reached a herd immunity level.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 3, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I mean to be fair, like 80% of people have had at least one jab in UK right? Combine that with the idiots who refuse the jab also automatically refuse the mask (comes with the territory), which means that 20% most likely has had it by now... since they are the type to do pub, etc...
> 
> So logically it makes sense to conclude UK has possibly reached a herd immunity level.


I think as of yesterday we are around 88% of total UK adult population that have had their first dose and 73% have had both.


----------



## HTC (Aug 3, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> I think as of yesterday we are around 88% of total UK *adult population* that have had their first dose and 73% have had both.


This is what concerns me: now that it's evident that Delta infects younger people too, how much of total *people* percentage does UK have with full vaccination?

With the original COVID, herd immunity was supposed to be achieved with around 70% of the population but, with this new Delta variant, it's my understanding that a higher percentage is required: can that percentage be achieved *solely vaccinating adult people*? This is why i think it's of the utmost importance we ALSO vaccinate younger people: young enough that we can reach herd immunity, be that @ age 16+, 14+ or younger, if need be.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 3, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> [It] shows really for us just how much transmission was happening in schools, kids have now been off school for 2 or 3 weeks



I hope you are wrong for USA's sake. Our schools are about to open in a month and there's no plan to get those kids vaccinated before October.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 3, 2021)

HTC said:


> This is what concerns me: now that it's evident that Delta infects younger people too, how much of total *people* percentage does UK have with full vaccination?
> 
> With the original COVID, herd immunity was supposed to be achieved with around 70% of the population but, with this new Delta variant, it's my understanding that a higher percentage is required: can that percentage be achieved *solely vaccinating adult people*? This is why i think it's of the utmost importance we ALSO vaccinate younger people: young enough that we can reach herd immunity, be that @ age 16+, 14+ or younger, if need be.



The adult only plan is about safety and minimizing hospitalizations / deaths. Any reasonable plan for herd immunity will require the kids to also get vaccinated.

The practical issue is: what is the proper safe dose for a 20kg (50lb) child?

The tests for a 85kg (180lb) adult are insufficient for demonstrating safety or efficacy. We have to start the tests all over from scratch if we want to prove safety.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 3, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I hope you are wrong for USA's sake. Our schools are about to open in a month and there's no plan to get those kids vaccinated before October.


Quoting your point but answering a couple of questions raised, yours to start with ............................... April - June, when the delta variant really took over, if my memory serves me correctly, 95% of all new cases came from the under 30's, of which 80% of them came from the under 18's (although in schools it was the 11+ group that had by far the most infections, younger school children only accounted for single digit %.

With regards to HTC's question about double jab rate if you include under 18's (bearing in mind the Pfizer jab is only approved here for 12+ currently, that 73% currently would probably go down to 60 - 65% if you included the 12+ year olds.

Currently, as far as I am aware, the UK as of now only intends to offer vaccinations to 12+ year olds with significant underlying conditions, at a vague guess, looking at where the UK is currently and including children down to 11 year olds I would guess that the best we could achieve is maybe 75% of the population (possibly a little more), the UK has approx 10 million children in school so prob around 6 million of those would be 11+ in what we call Secondary Schools, as I mentioned, infection rates in what we call Primary schools (4-10 year olds) has been very low as far as I am aware.


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## HTC (Aug 3, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Quoting your point but answering a couple of questions raised, yours to start with ............................... April - June, when the delta variant really took over, if my memory serves me correctly, 95% of all new cases came from the under 30's, of which 80% of them came from the under 18's (although in schools it was the 11+ group that had by far the most infections, younger school children only accounted for single digit %.
> 
> With regards to HTC's question about double jab rate if you include under 18's (bearing in mind the Pfizer jab is only approved here for 12+ currently, that 73% currently would probably go down to 60 - 65% if you included the 12+ year olds.
> 
> *Currently, as far as I am aware, the UK as of now only intends to offer vaccinations to 12+ year olds with significant underlying conditions*, at a vague guess, looking at where the UK is currently and including children down to 11 year olds I would guess that the best we could achieve is maybe 75% of the population (possibly a little more), the UK has approx 10 million children in school so prob around 6 million of those would be 11+ in what we call Secondary Schools, as I mentioned, infection rates in what we call Primary schools (4-10 year olds) has been very low as far as I am aware.



Same thing here in Portugal, as far as i'm aware: they intend to 100% vaccinate aged 12 to 15 that have other medical issues but require parent + medical consent to vaccinate the rest of those aged 12 to 15.



dragontamer5788 said:


> *The adult only plan is about safety and minimizing hospitalizations / deaths. Any reasonable plan for herd immunity will require the kids to also get vaccinated.*
> 
> The practical issue is: *what is the proper safe dose for a 20kg (50lb) child?*
> 
> The tests for a 85kg (180lb) adult are insufficient for demonstrating safety or efficacy. We have to start the tests all over from scratch if we want to prove safety.



Exactly.

Which is why i was talking about aged 12+ only and not going younger than that. Still, that MAY eventually be required so we'll need to seriously consider that right now: we HOPE it won't be needed but we must prepare non the less on that chance that it MAY be required.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 3, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Quoting your point but answering a couple of questions raised, yours to start with ............................... April - June, when the delta variant really took over, if my memory serves me correctly, 95% of all new cases came from the under 30's, of which 80% of them came from the under 18's (although in schools it was the 11+ group that had by far the most infections, younger school children only accounted for single digit %.



Our schools are September to June, with a week break in April and December. The Delta variant entered our country sometime in March. But it didn't really ramp up until July, well into summer-break.

Note: this graph is of my current state. Our state has a bigger initial surge (which probably caused more people to take COVID19 seriously), and therefore a weaker winter surge / alpha surge than other states. Otherwise, the big "bumps" line up with the rest of the country.





The March / April period was Alpha. True, Delta was in our country, but it didn't really take over until now. The entirety of March/April was Alpha for sure.

This new surge we're seeing is Delta for certain (well over 90% of the cases today are Delta). So we're a few weeks "behind" you guys across the pond. That being said: we can see the July / August 2020 surge from last year (a very minor bump). Our behavior is to go to the beach / vacation properties around this time. Case in point: our local resort town is "Ocean City", population 7,000. In the summer months during vacation, it becomes the second most populated city in the state (!!!!).









						Ocean City, Maryland - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> *Ocean City*, officially the *Town of Ocean City*, is an Atlantic resort town in Worcester County, Maryland, United States. Ocean City is a major beach resort area along the East Coast of the United States. The population was 7,102 at the 2010 U.S. census, although during summer weekends the city hosts between 320,000 and 345,000 vacationers, and up to 8 million visitors annually.[4] During the summer, Ocean City becomes the second most populated municipality in Maryland, after Baltimore.



July is a good time for the beach. August is better (warmer ocean. The July ocean is still very cold), but August has random hurricanes. So July is more reliable, and is the start of our travels to Ocean City. With so many vacationers entering one location like that, it will inevitably spread COVID19.

----------

Florida in particular is a large peninsula with perhaps the most number of beaches in the country. Their surge is almost certainly because of this vacationing behavior of ours (well... that and their lack of vaccination). I know of plenty of family friends who own beach-houses in Florida and travel there yearly. Others own timeshares, while many others own yearly passes to Disney World despite not owning any property.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1421176288270864388


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## Space Lynx (Aug 3, 2021)

Pfizer Raises Price of Covid-19 Vaccine by 25% in Europe: Report
					

Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine will be the highest revenue drug in history by the end of 2021.




					gizmodo.com
				




You want some Covid stats?  

_Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine will be the highest revenue drug in history by the end of 2021._

$$$$$$$$ To the moon!!!!  $$$$$$$$$


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 3, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Pfizer Raises Price of Covid-19 Vaccine by 25% in Europe: Report
> 
> 
> Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine will be the highest revenue drug in history by the end of 2021.
> ...



Pfizer was an already established company though. It was expected that they might be one of the top contenders for the vaccine.

Moderna on the other hand, was a startup in 2016 (a $Billion startup, but a startup nonetheless). The Moderna vaccine is the first drug they ever made for the public. As such, their stock is more closely "to the  moon" than Pfizer's.





Moderna is the stock I've been kicking myself over. They were only ~$80 when it was announced that they'd be the 2nd vaccine. They were only $170 when they started distributing the vaccine in large numbers (making lots of money). In hindsight, it seems like one of the easiest stock plays I let escape my grasp.


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## Space Lynx (Aug 3, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Pfizer was an already established company though. It was expected that they might be one of the top contenders for the vaccine.
> 
> Moderna on the other hand, was a startup in 2016 (a $Billion startup, but a startup nonetheless). The Moderna vaccine is the first drug they ever made for the public. As such, their stock is more closely "to the  moon" than Pfizer's.
> 
> ...



ya that article also states Modern raises their price by 10% as well recently for each vaccine.









						VC Firm Of Moderna Chairman Sold $1.4 Billion Of Stock In Two Months
					

Flagship Pioneering, a VC fund run and majority owned by Moderna chairman and cofounder Noubar Afeyan, sold the shares in late February and late March.




					www.forbes.com
				




must be nice being a billionaire off a pandemic. lol


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 3, 2021)

^^ LQ just to keep the virus stats etc in front. The financial side is better for the other Covid (lounge) thread.

It's why we have two.


----------



## HTC (Aug 4, 2021)

This is Portugal's current vaccination, as of August 1st:





On the left is 1 dose only and on the right is fully vaccinated. Bottom part states doses Portugal has received (left) and doses Portugal has administered (right).

We had to slow down our rate of vaccinations due to lack of vaccines: there's a need to keep in stock enough vaccines for those waiting for their 2nd dose, or we would use all of the vaccines as they became available.

We have a great percentage of those aged 65+ fully vaccinated, but aged 50 to 64 isn't quite there just yet. Obviously, and because they started to get vaccinated @ a later date, those aged under 50 still have a long way to go.

Portugal is going to interrupt scheduled vaccination for 30+ this weekend and push for vaccinating ALL of aged 16 to 17 in preparation for school, and resume vaccinating 30+ after that.

Portugal has a huge percentage of adults vaccinated:

- aged 18 to 24 --- 157703 / 0.2 = 788515 people
- aged 25 to 49 --- 2523805 / 0.76 = 3320796 people
- aged 50 to 64 --- 2047847 / 0.94 = 2178561 people
- aged 65 to 79 --- 1642755 / 0.99 = 1659348 people
- aged 80+ --- 682088 / 0.99 = 688978

- aged 18+ in Portugal --- 788515 + 3320796 + 2178561 + 1659348 + 688798 = 8636198

- 1 vaccine dose only --- 7059701 * 100  / 8636198 = 81.75%
- fully vaccinated --- (5851054 - 2880) * 100 / 8636198 = 67.72%

My math is right ... right?


----------



## Deleted member 24505 (Aug 4, 2021)

Just seen a proper dumbass politician from florida. Not vaccinated because i'm 30 yrs old and fit and healthy so don't need it. Jesus no wonder Florida is in the grip of this covid pandemic. Well all i can say is go go virus, cull all the thick *****, at least what's left are the intelligent ones.

Listen, if you are in America, FFS wear a mask and get vaccinated.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 4, 2021)

Here come the hospitalizations... (WashPo reporting)


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 4, 2021)

HTC said:


> - 1 vaccine dose only --- 7059701 * 100 / 8636198 = 67.72%
> - fully vaccinated --- (5851054 - 2880) * 100 / 8636198 = 81.75%
> 
> My math is right ... right?



A quickie "spot check", but those two numbers don't make sense to me at all. Maybe 81% "at least 1 dose", and 67% "fully vaccinated" would make sense. But, something is just weird with those numbers, so I don't like them.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 4, 2021)

and no one seems to care about that the previously had covid with symptoms + 1 dose stats. 5.7 trillion dollars, record profits, and none of them have time to get that data though... lol seems funny to me.


----------



## HTC (Aug 4, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> A quickie "spot check", but those two numbers don't make sense to me at all. Maybe 81% "at least 1 dose", and 67% "fully vaccinated" would make sense. But, something is just weird with those numbers, so I don't like them.



You're right: they're swapped ... my bad 

Fixed.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 4, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> and no one seems to care about that the previously had covid with symptoms + 1 dose stats. 5.7 trillion dollars, record profits, and none of them have time to get that data though... lol seems funny to me.



We haven't even figured out the correct dosage levels for 12-and-under children yet. It takes months to run these trials and tests at the FDA / CDC levels required to be confident of the results. There's also the tests for the 4th vaccine: Novavax (a traditional vaccine: takes a lot longer to develop but maybe this will get the remaining anti-vaxxers in line).

After that, I'd say the next major test is to start figuring out whether a 3rd shot (maybe a new booster-formula) can be made to reduce the transmissibility of Delta. Too many questions. I personally don't think your question is important enough to warrant a significant amount of resources expended. We know that 2-doses works and that 2-doses is safe. We're literally sitting on millions of expiring doses here in the USA (https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/20...9-vaccine-doses-as-expiration-dates-approach/), so its not like other countries who don't have enough vaccines. (Those countries care about conserving the few doses they have, so it makes sense for them to study that question).

But why take 1-dose ever here in the USA? There's no science suggesting 1-dose is better in any way than 2 doses. Its different for a drug like J&J's: which was tested as a single-dose from the beginning. To use the mRNA drugs designed as 2-doses (and tested as 2-doses) as a single-dose just doesn't make sense to me.

We have enough to give everyone the 2-doses needed to match our highly scientific, 30,000+ or 40,000+ person tests. The question is now about how those 2-dose regiments (which have been applied to hundreds of millions of people) will react to Delta (and how it may change given a 3rd dose... maybe a new mRNA formula more specifically made for Delta?)


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 4, 2021)

@lynx29 Maybe you'll be pleased with this mask msg









He is part of the Covid taskforce so it might further confuse people and anger others.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422332496616726536


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 4, 2021)

Here's what Dr Osterholm says about vaccines in the current pandemic.



> The mRNA vaccine technology, and how it was brought forward, was nothing short of a modern public health Manhattan Project success. Now what we need, however, is a second Manhattan Project with a Marshall Plan attached to it. The second Manhattan Project is, how are we going to manufacture enough vaccine for the world? Because this is no longer just about humanitarian aid. That is critical and should be front and center. But this is about protecting the integrity of our current vaccines, as you have so very thoughtfully taught us over recent weeks. It's still unclear what these variants are doing to vaccine protection. I don't think it's nearly as bad as some might think it is, but what's the next variant to come down the pike? We need to stop transmission globally — not just for humanitarian reasons, but to protect the integrity and the functionality of these current vaccines.



Edit.

And reading his mask discussion isn't anything new. Basically in a room with 15 minutes exposure, a standard cotton mask will give you 5 extra minutes of protection. So really, 33% longer. An N95 mask, as in medical scenarios, is 24 hours.

I'm in England at the moment and I'm not wearing a mask (I don't have to). But I'm vaccinated. And I'm not in busy enclosed spaces with young folk. I'm quite happy that way.

What the good Dr pushes, though, is distancing and vaccinations.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 4, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> And reading his mask discussion isn't anything new. Basically in a room with 15 minutes exposure, a standard cotton mask will give you 5 extra minutes of protection. So really, 33% longer. An N95 mask, as in medical scenarios, is 24 hours.



Given what I've seen of cotton masks: 15-minutes unprotected would probably be equivalent to 30-minutes with a well made cotton mask.

N95 is only 95% effective (the higher grade N99 masks or N100 masks are too expensive for widespread deployment). That means 300-minutes of exposure with N95 protection is equivalent to 15-minutes of unprotected exposure, no where close to the 24-hours you suggest. (You'd need an N99 mask to achieve 24-hours equivalent protection to 15-minutes raw exposure)

IIRC, N100 is 99.7% effective (not really 100% effective), or thereabouts.

In any case, the N95 shortage is basically over. I suggest buying N95 now if you're gonna mask up. No reason to stick with cotton masks anymore.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 4, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Here's what Dr Osterholm says about vaccines in the current pandemic.



We are currently in the mist of Mask and Vaccine mandates discussions and hes not making friends.

CDC director manage to get people confused last week and this week Osterholm is not only adding to it. Hes admitting they have never been clear with the msg.  Not only in mask but in others in place that do very little for protection.

He might not be giving interviews for awhile


----------



## ShiBDiB (Aug 4, 2021)

Work on a military base in NY, we just got told masks are mandatory again regardless of vaccination status starting tomorrow.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 4, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> Work on a military base in NY, we just got told masks are mandatory again regardless of vaccination status starting tomorrow.



My work is requiring masks as well. I just ran out of my N95 (gave a bunch out a few months ago, thinking I didn't need em anymore). I decided to go for those "Duckbill" masks from Accumed posted a bit earlier in this topic. They are available from Amazon, but they're also available on Accumed's website.









						30-Pack N95 Respirator (NIOSH), FDA Cleared Surgical Respirator Mask, Medical Grade Disposable Particulate Filtering Respirator (30 Count)
					

30-Pack N95 Respirator (NIOSH), FDA Cleared Surgical Respirator Mask, Medical Grade Disposable Particulate Filtering Respirator (30 Count)




					accumed.com
				









						Amazon.com: BN - Aero Pro N95 Mask Respirator (NIOSH) - 30-Pack -Made in Taiwan - AP0028 Duckbill Style Safety Face Mask, Air Filtration Anti Dust Mask, Disposable Particulate Filtering Respirator : Tools & Home Improvement
					

Amazon.com: BN - Aero Pro N95 Mask Respirator (NIOSH) - 30-Pack -Made in Taiwan - AP0028 Duckbill Style Safety Face Mask, Air Filtration Anti Dust Mask, Disposable Particulate Filtering Respirator : Tools & Home Improvement



					www.amazon.com
				




$30 from accumed.com, $40 from Amazon right now. $1 to $1.25 per mask is cheap for N95. The duckbill style looks kinda silly though, but I don't really care. I do prefer the N95 style "headbands" that wrap all around the back of your head, instead of tugging on your ears all day (KN95 are all ear-loops that really hurt my ears over time...).

My previous buy was from industrial stores (ULine in particular). Moldex 2200N95 was pretty good but is a "stiff" mask. I think the duckbill might be superior because it'd be easier for me to fold it up and store it in my car and/or bag. A "stiff" mask like the 2200N95 is very inconvenient when you take the mask off (ex: to eat or drink).


----------



## ShiBDiB (Aug 4, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> My work is requiring masks as well. I just ran out of my N95 (gave a bunch out a few months ago, thinking I didn't need em anymore). I decided to go for those "Duckbill" masks from Accumed posted a bit earlier in this topic. They are available from Amazon, but they're also available on Accumed's website.



I'll just go back to wearing a neck gaiter... I'm vaccinated, in shape, and besides enjoying too many IPA's relatively healthy.


----------



## Deleted member 24505 (Aug 5, 2021)

Being in shape or healthy makes no difference to covid. I have heard of the most fit and healthy people dying of it. Being vaccinated and wearing a mask if in close proximity to other people matters.

That stupid Florida politician, i'm fit and healthy so i'm fine, have not been vaccinated and don't wear a mask. I hate to say it, but i hope he catches covid. He will see how stupid he is, when he's on a ventilator.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 5, 2021)

Gruffalo.Soldier said:


> Being in shape or healthy makes no difference to covid. I have heard of the most fit and healthy people dying of it. Being vaccinated and wearing a mask if in close proximity to other people matters.
> 
> That stupid Florida politician, i'm fit and healthy so i'm fine, have not been vaccinated and don't wear a mask. I hate to say it, but i hope he catches covid. He will see how stupid he is, when he's on a ventilator.



You sure? Cause the CDC already made it be known awhile ago



			
				NBC said:
			
		

> About *78% of people* who have been hospitalized, needed a ventilator or died *from Covid-19 have been overweight or obese, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said* in a new study Monday.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 5, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Hes admitting they have never been clear with the msg.  Not only in mask but in others in place that do very little for protection.



I'm not sure what part of this I am supposed to be upset about, because frankly, he's spot on.  The messaging is half the issue here.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 5, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> You sure? Cause the CDC already made it be known awhile ago


To be fair, that's hardly eliminating the risk for the healthy.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Aug 5, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> To be fair, that's hardly eliminating the risk for the healthy.



It puts it in the same likelihood as a healthy person being hospitalized from the flu.

I'm in the, take whatever precautions you yourself feel necessary and let me do the same, mindset. I got the shots (along with 70% of the country seems to be doing) and I'm in a very low risk category if you actually look at the science and not the media reports.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 5, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> It puts it in the same likelihood as a healthy person being hospitalized from the flu.


I'm not questioning that this is possible, but as this is a stats threads, stats?


----------



## ShiBDiB (Aug 5, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I'm not questioning that this is possible, but as this is a stats threads, stats?


It is a stats thread.. and you've been questioning all the stats provided


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## R-T-B (Aug 5, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> It is a stats thread.. and you've been questioning all the stats provided


No.  I just asked for stats that as far as I can tell, have not been provided for your claim.  This is how science works.

I have not questioned any stats here for their value in their relevant studies.

I'm not sure I have even questioned a single stat yet, actually...


----------



## ShiBDiB (Aug 5, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I'm not questioning that this is possible, but as this is a stats threads, stats?







__





						COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
					

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities.  Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.




					www.cdc.gov
				




Table 1, we have ~10k people 0-40 died while having covid, with only 4500 having died with pneumonia and also covid (making covid the more likely cause of death rather than a secondary/tertiary cause)









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Surveillance — United States ...
					

This report describes the most common underlying health conditions among COVID-19 cases in the United States as of May 30, 2020.




					www.cdc.gov
				




Reports deaths being ~12x higher in people with underlying conditions.









						COVID-19: Who's at higher risk of serious symptoms?
					

Other health conditions can increase your risk of developing dangerous symptoms if you get coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).




					www.mayoclinic.org
				




Covers underlying conditions increasing risk


Granted the CDC's fancy data tracker is actually kind of a pain in the dick to get anything besides vague data.

tldr; If you're a healthy younger person with no underlying health issues, get the vaccine and worry more about getting hit by a car crossing the street. If you're in an at risk group, take the necessary precautions that you're comfortable taking. Both sides need to stop shaming eachother.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 5, 2021)

Does anyone have any new stats in last week or so of previous covid infections that then got the 1 shot? From what I remember, several countries, Germany, France, and also private companies like NFL state if you previously had covid you only need 1 shot of the pfizer. I also remember posting a link to about 50 small studies, some of them from very reputable journals/clinics and they all seemed to agree on this.

I just was wondering if anyone has seen any new info on it in last week or so. If not its cool, I'm just trying to keep an eye on it, if the data changes I will get second shot. So far everything I have read says I am sitting good like a pumpkin pie cooling down on a window sill


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 5, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> Table 1, we have ~10k people 0-40 died while having covid, with only 4500 having died with pneumonia and also covid (making covid the more likely cause of death rather than a secondary/tertiary cause)



You misunderstand the point of the CDC publishing graphs like that.

The suggestion is that those pneumonia counts are in fact COVID19 deaths that have been mislabeled. People didn't suddenly start dying of pneumonia in high numbers in 2020. They were dying of COVID19, and likely were miscategorized as a pneumonia death.

COVID19 also kills with other deaths not necessarily related to pneumonia. So your proposition to subtracting out non-pneumonia COVID deaths is pretty arbitrary. Acute Renal Failure is another cause of death IIRC associated with COVID19.





__





						Table 1 Clinical causes of death and documented comorbidities in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.
					






					www.nature.com
				








Lets take case #1: death by Hypoxia (suffocation), and ARDS (acute respitory distress syndrome), but no pneumonia at all. Why do you remove case #1 from your counts?

Case #8 is the Cardiovascular failure. Plenty of Septic Shock. How many of these cases do you want to remove from the COVID19 death counts?


----------



## ShiBDiB (Aug 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Why do you remove case #1 from your counts?



You linked a chart with people who have a laundry list of pre-existing conditions. The case you reference alone lists 5 (along with falling outside of the age group being discussed). To compare people with that medical history to a healthy young adult is asinine.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 5, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> You linked a chart with people who have a laundry list of pre-existing conditions. The case you reference alone lists 5 (along with falling outside of the age group being discussed). To compare people with that medical history to a healthy young adult is asinine.


Yes, for the specific case I was asking for you are spot on.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 5, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> You linked a chart with people who have a laundry list of pre-existing conditions. The case you reference alone lists 5. To compare people with that medical history to a healthy young adult is asinine.



You are welcome to link your own chart of COVID19 death certificates to indicate the problem you're worried about.

My demonstration has the effect I want. People don't only die of pneumonia: they also die of liver failure, septic shock, heart attacks, and ARDS. Pneumonia is but one way to die of COVID19.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You misunderstand the point of the CDC publishing graphs like that.
> 
> The suggestion is that those pneumonia counts are in fact COVID19 deaths that have been mislabeled. People didn't suddenly start dying of pneumonia in high numbers in 2020. They were dying of COVID19, and likely were miscategorized as a pneumonia death.
> 
> ...



Might want to clarify



> Our findings reveal that *causes of death were directly related to COVID-19* in most cases and not an immediate consequence of preexisting health conditions and comorbidities, i.e. these patients—despite often suffering from severe health conditions—*would not have died in the absence of a SARS-CoV-2 infection at the given time point*.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Aug 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You are welcome to link your own chart of COVID19 death certificates to indicate the problem you're worried about.
> 
> My demonstration has the effect I want. People don't only die of pneumonia: they also die of liver failure, septic shock, heart attacks, and ARDS. Pneumonia is but one way to die of COVID19.



Your demonstration took all the variables that were being used in the discussion and completely ignored them.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 5, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> Your demonstration took all the variables that were being used in the discussion and completely ignored them.



Sure. You've attacked my data. That's fine.

But you haven't posted any data supporting your stance yet. Please, demonstrate to me why you think that young folk are exclusively dying of pneumonia. Given what I've seen from other age groups, I'd expect to see the same thing from young folks: yes, most pneumonia, but also ARDS, liver failure, septic shock and so forth.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Aug 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Sure. You've attacked my data. That's fine.
> 
> But you haven't posted any data supporting your stance yet. Please, demonstrate to me why you think that young folk are exclusively dying of pneumonia. Given what I've seen from other age groups, I'd expect to see the same thing from young folks: yes, most pneumonia, but also ARDS, liver failure, septic shock and so forth.



I'm not attacking your data.. I'm attacking your entire argument because it's baseless when it comes to the discussion. 

If providing links to CDC data isn't good enough than there's not much else I can provide you.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 5, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> If providing links to CDC data isn't good enough than there's not much else I can provide you.



Your discussion points don't match the data you posted.



> with only 4500 having died with pneumonia and also covid (making covid the more likely cause of death rather than a secondary/tertiary cause)



This comment of yours is *wrong*. Hypoxia / ADRS is an incredibly common way to die with COVID without necessarily ever having pneumonia at all. Just having your lungs fail on their own (without getting your lungs water-logged) is a *separate* mode of death and categorized as such.

You are implying that we should only count pneumonia deaths with that line. That is a commonly said, and mistaken, assumption. Comorbidities don't work like that. Death categorizations don't work like that.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 5, 2021)

Vaccinated People Three Times Less Likely to Contract Delta Variant in UK Study
					

Fully vaccinated people were three times less likely to contract any infection, including infections with no symptoms, than unvaccinated people.




					gizmodo.com
				




this is good news.  breakthrough cases are real for certain. but vaccinated is still better.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 5, 2021)

Compared to the last time I posted (https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/...tics-tracking-of-covid-19.264697/post-4569649), the top states (Florida / Louisiana) were growing at 100% or 50% growth week-over-week.

We're seeing a slowdown in growth (2nd derivative is negative). The number of cases and hospitalizations continue to rise, but when the 2nd derivative goes negative that's called an "inflection point". Its the first sign that things may be getting better. But it will take another few weeks before the case numbers actually decline.

Its probably a foregone conclusion that places like Florida will have extremely stressed hospital systems. They have to deal with a (projected) increase in cases for the next few weeks in a row.









						'There are only so many beds': COVID-19 surge hits hospitals
					

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Florida hospitals slammed with COVID-19 patients are suspending elective surgeries and putting beds in conference rooms, an auditorium and a cafeteria. As of midweek, Mississippi had just six open intensive care beds in the entire state.




					apnews.com
				






> FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Florida hospitals slammed with COVID-19 patients are suspending elective surgeries and putting beds in conference rooms, an auditorium and a cafeteria. As of midweek, Mississippi had just six open intensive care beds in the entire state.





> Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi alone account for more than 40% of all hospitalizations in the country.
> 
> Mississippi has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the nation, with less than 35% of its population fully inoculated, and Louisiana and Georgia aren’t much better, at around 38%. Florida is closer to the national rate at 49%, but none of the four Southern states comes close to the New England region, where most states are well over 60%.



This is becoming a major cluster of COVID19 for sure.

-------

USA-case growth in general was 50% week-over-week growth last time and 43% week-over-week growth today. Not really much of a change on that front: Delta continues to spread at an alarming rate across the country in general (but especially in the unvaccinated areas).

As a country: we've gone from 13 new cases per 100k to 29 new cases per 100k. Hospitalization statistics are beginning to climb exponentially (correlating with that big exponential neck you see in all of those states). Once again, the numbers prove usable. An increase in #cases leads to an increase in #hospitalized a few weeks later. We can use these numbers to inform policy and predict the future reliably.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 211331
> 
> Compared to the last time I posted (https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/...tics-tracking-of-covid-19.264697/post-4569649), the top states (Florida / Louisiana) were growing at 100% or 50% growth week-over-week.
> 
> ...




yeah but the thing is are the deaths really that high in these areas? my guess is since this is Florida, what happens is, you get someone who needs oxygen due to covid, they recover, say thanks for the oxygen and told you it was nothing i beat it easy didn't even need ventilator, and they still won't get the vaccine within next 6 months.

so I mean, really, what's the point anymore? get your two shots, wear a mask, and move on with life, if IF a new variant comes that breaks the vaccine then we will deal with that and that rhetoric then, until then, its time to start living again.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> yeah but the thing is are the deaths really that high in these areas? my guess is since this is Florida, what happens is, you get someone who needs oxygen due to covid, they recover, say thanks for the oxygen and told you it was nothing i beat it easy didn't even need ventilator, and they still won't get the vaccine within next 6 months.



Cases become hospitalizations. Hospitalizations become deaths. One step at a time (with approximately a week or two of delay between steps). This case increase only started a few weeks ago, so we're only seeing the hospital surge now.

But death rates are ticking up too. We're beginning to see that "exponential neck" appear on these Death-charts.





Florida's higher vaccination rate (49.3%) is better than Louisiana (37.2%), and I think we can see the difference in deaths already.



> until then, its time to start living again.



I don't think shutdowns are the appropriate response right now. The best response seems to be more vaccine mandates. That way, we can fight the virus while mostly getting on with our lives again. Most of this is IMO, the fault of the unvaccinated.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Cases become hospitalizations. Hospitalizations become deaths. One step at a time (with approximately a week or two of delay between steps). This case increase only started a few weeks ago, so we're only seeing the hospital surge now.
> 
> But death rates are ticking up too. We're beginning to see that "exponential neck" appear on these Death-charts.
> 
> ...



still you have you to be careful with percentages, cause the actually numbers are probably still extremely low, and that's the main argument the unvaccinated use. they will say stuff like well 400,000 die every year from this common illness how come you didn't make a vaccine for that, etc etc.

but i am on your side on this one so no worries. its very clear vaccine is amazing. Montana and Alaska surprise me a bit, was not expecting to see so many deaths there.  @Kursah what's your experience been like living in Montana? just curious


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> still you have you to be careful with percentages, cause the actually numbers are probably still extremely low, and that's the main argument the unvaccinated use. they will say stuff like well 400,000 die every year from this common illness how come you didn't make a vaccine for that, etc etc.



I realize you're not making the argument... but that discussion point bothers me. Especially when you know the numbers for 2020: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm





Note:


> † Deaths for which COVID-19 was a contributing, but not the underlying, cause of death are not included in this figure.


.

"Unintentional Injury" is not a singular cause of death. There are car-accidents. People fall off of roofs. People get sucked into grain silos. All accidents *combined* last year pales in comparison with COVID19.

Cancer and Heart Disease are similarly, "categories" of death IMO more so than anything else. There's lung cancer, there's brain cancer, skin cancer, etc. etc. Many many different cancers (and many doctors believe that even a focus on one category: such as Brain Cancer, could be 10 different diseases with similar results).

-----------

We can also see how the lockdowns / shutdowns affected our deaths last year rather dramatically.





Notice that "other deaths" are roughly constant. The big variance over the year was COVID19. And we can *control* this disease with a readily available vaccine with huge efficacy (over 98% effective at stopping death).


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 5, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I realize you're not making the argument... but that discussion point bothers me. Especially when you know the numbers for 2020: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm
> 
> View attachment 211369
> 
> ...



that's my point though. you could argue the government should mandate everyone walks 1 hour every day, if they did and enforced it, the heart disease deaths would probably be cut in half within 5 years.  literally no one walks anymore. lol


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 5, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> that's my point though. you could argue the government should mandate everyone walks 1 hour every day, if they did and enforced it, the heart disease deaths would probably be cut in half within 5 years. literally no one walks anymore. lol



I dare say that walking 1-hour each day is harder than taking two shots over 5 weeks. And I doubt that walking 1-hour each day is as effective (98% efficacy) either. Heart disease is also caused by smoking, alcohol, and obesity. So even if you are walking every day, smoking + alcoholic habits would negate the benefits.

But don't worry, I'm working on my heart health in my own ways. . Its the #1 cause of death after all so its something to watch out for.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 6, 2021)

August 4 2021

*OCFR (Observed Case Fatality Ratio)*
USA - 1.7
Mexico - 8.4
UK - 2.2
India - 1.3

I thought we'd be higher given all the doom talk everywhere.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 6, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> August 4 2021
> 
> *OCFR (Observed Case Fatality Ratio)*
> USA - 1.7
> ...



I didn't realize Mexico was having such a hard go of it.

It's proven Alpha variant gets its ass kicked in the hot summer sun, I wonder if Delta has figured out a way to mitigate some of that... hmm...I would expect Mexico being so hot to only have issues in the winter, similar to how nations on the equator have almost 0 covid issues the entire last 18 months. Very interesting / odd.  I know Dr. Neil De Grasse Tyson once said you weight like half a pound less at the equator... I wonder if the force of gravity has something to do with almost no covid cases in equator countries? Is the force simply to much for the virus to do its 'aerosol hanging out' thing... hmm

@Drone thoughts? @lexluthermiester


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I didn't realize Mexico was having such a hard go of it.
> 
> It's proven Alpha variant gets its ass kicked in the hot summer sun, I wonder if Delta has figured out a way to mitigate some of that... hmm...I would expect Mexico being so hot to only have issues in the winter, similar to how nations on the equator have almost 0 covid issues the entire last 18 months. Very interesting / odd.  I know Dr. Neil De Grasse Tyson once said you weight like half a pound less at the equator... I wonder if the force of gravity has something to do with almost no covid cases in equator countries? Is the force simply to much for the virus to do its 'aerosol hanging out' thing... hmm
> 
> @Drone thoughts? @lexluthermiester



Doubtful.  These are OCFR for some of the equator countries

Ecuador - 6.5
Brazil - 2.8
Colombia - 2.5
Indonesia - 2.8
Malaysia - 0.8


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 6, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> August 4 2021
> 
> *OCFR (Observed Case Fatality Ratio)*
> USA - 1.7
> ...



The problem with OCFR stat (which appears to work on reported cases) is that many countries only recorded positive tests from hospitalisations. This is what happened to the UK in the first few months. We were very slow to bring in 'open' testing.

I'm pretty sure this applies to the States as well. On the other hand, some Asian/Oceania countries were testing randomly very early on.

I couldn't see the deaths per 100,000 breakdown (on mobile, not so user friendly). Assuming that was the John Hopkins stats?

Found it. Using deaths per capita, the situation looks very different. Can't put the table up, but the UK and US are close (194 and 187 respectively).

UK has 4th highest in global deaths per capita, US is 6th. Ranking:

Brazil, Columbia, Argentina, UK, Mexico, USA..


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 6, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Doubtful.  These are OCFR for some of the equator countries
> 
> Ecuador - 6.5
> Brazil - 2.8
> ...



I was thinking more tropical, directly on the equator line. You can't mention Brazil in that sense, its simply to big of a country for the point I was trying to make.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 6, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> The problem with OCFR stat (which appears to work on reported cases) is that many countries only recorded positive tests from hospitalisations. This is what happened to the UK in the first few months. We were very slow to bring in 'open' testing.
> 
> I'm pretty sure this applies to the States as well. On the other hand, some Asian/Oceania countries were testing randomly very early on.
> 
> ...



I didn't want to bring healthy people into it


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 6, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I didn't want to bring healthy people into it



Damn them healthies! Gonna force feed them fast food, alcohol, and lethargy to level things up.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> It's proven Alpha variant gets its ass kicked in the hot summer sun, I wonder if Delta has figured out a way to mitigate some of that...


The issue with airborne viral viability is a chemistry problem. Not only is there a UV exposure factor but there is an oxidation factor. With Covid, the chemistry of the virus RNA strand makes it more vulnerable to both UV degradation as well as oxidation degradation. In sunlight, viral viability is measured in seconds. In the absence of sunlight, the viability is measure between 45 seconds to 2 minutes, generally. Solvent chemical exposure reduces that viability to milliseconds, depending on the solvent. Oxidizers have a similar viability time-span.

I don't want to guess as to why Mexico is having a harder time with Covid, but it seems heat and sunlight are not playing a great factor in that particular equation. More research and science is needed to come to a logical/reasonable conclusion.



Xzibit said:


> Doubtful.  These are OCFR for some of the equator countries
> 
> Ecuador - 6.5
> Brazil - 2.8
> ...


And those numbers add to the mystery. Mexico, Brazil, Columbia and Ecuador are geological hops, skips and jumps from each other and yet the spread is all over the place. Economics don't seem to factor in and have a big effect because Brazil is a very wealthy nation and yet has a slightly higher mortality rate than Columbia, Mexico is much more wealthy than Ecuador and yet has a higher rate as well.


----------



## johnspack (Aug 7, 2021)

Just got my 2nd shot.  Will continue to wear masks in all stores.  Hope everyone else will do the same.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 7, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> I don't want to guess as to why Mexico is having a harder time with Covid, but it seems heat and sunlight are not playing a great factor in that particular equation. More research and science is needed to come to a logical/reasonable conclusion.



Its all guesswork and theories.

The widespread guess that I'm liking, is that Southern States, Mexico, (etc. etc.) have higher heat and sun. This causes people to stay inside and chat more with Air Conditioning (malls, homes, etc. etc.). If the temperature were cooler, people would be golfing or walking at the park.

Basically: above a certain temperature, people stay inside. And inside is where the virus spreads.


----------



## 64K (Aug 7, 2021)

johnspack said:


> Just got my 2nd shot.  Will continue to wear masks in all stores.  Hope everyone else will do the same.



Almost no one wears a mask where I live. New Covid cases are way up. Hospitalizations, ICU patients and death toll is up.
Only 39% of people in my state have been double vaccinated.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 7, 2021)

64K said:


> Almost no one wears a mask where I live. New Covid cases are way up. Hospitalizations, ICU patients and death toll is up.
> Only 39% of people in my state have been double vaccinated.



Yep, I am only one in my county that wears a mask anymore. People look at me funny. My county has a 70% vaccination rate, but I don't care. I'm wearing probably until the day I die at this point. Even if Covid is eradicated in say 3 years by some miracle. I'm still wearing it, We are overdue for a super flu, some kind of massive bird flu, or anything at this point. No one in my entire life has ever talked to me in a grocery store anyway, so why the hell would I care what anyone thinks. Just there to get my food and get out, and back to gaming or cycling or kayaking. YOLO BOYS


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> YOLO BOYS


I always say that right before I die in video games...  maybe better word choice is called for...

Seriously, I'm with you though.  Masking even well after this is over.  Many benefits, few downsides.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 7, 2021)

Only 10 cases today, but a dozen deaths.








						Taiwan reports 6 local COVID cases, 12 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-08-07 14:18:00
					

Death toll surpasses 800, with a total of 15,775 coronavirus cases | 2021-08-07 14:18:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 7, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Only 10 cases today, but a dozen deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



the math on that doesn't make sense. very odd


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> the math on that doesn't make sense. very odd


Well, there's no real testing going on, so what do you expect?


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 7, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Well, there's no real testing going on, so what do you expect?



I suppose you don't need testing if everyone is wearing a mask and social distancing. I don't know.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I suppose you don't need testing if everyone is wearing a mask and social distancing. I don't know.


  
There's no such thing as social distancing here, people seem to gravitate towards each other here and bump into each other like they're part of some kind human game of bumper cars...
I have literally stood still and have had people smack their face straight into my chest as if I wasn't there...
So no, social distancing isn't a thing here, but until recently, people have mostly been staying at home, but now they lowered the restrictions, as the companies are complaining that their offices are empty... I don't expect it to last long though.
Masks seem to help, but only to a point.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 7, 2021)

UK August 6 briefing

(Feb 1 2021 - Aug 2 2021)
Delta Cases
Full Vaccinated - 47,008
UnVaccinated - 151,054

Deaths
Full Vaccinated - 402
UnVaccinated - 253

-

Here comes my bad math.

Fatal %
Full Vaccinated - 0.856
UnVaccinated - 0.168

Survival %
Full Vaccinated - 99.144
UnVaccinated - 99.832

-


----------



## HTC (Aug 7, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> UK August 6 briefing
> 
> Delta Cases
> Full Vaccinated - 47,008
> ...



Today's deaths don't correlate to today's cases: you should compare VS the cases from 3 to 4 weeks ago, and then do the math.

Portugal's cases have been dropping since last week but, except for the slight decrease from last week, deaths keep increasing: 2 days left until i make my usual weekly report and Portugal already has 2 more deaths this week than last week, in total.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 7, 2021)

HTC said:


> Today's deaths don't correlate to today's cases: you should compare VS the cases from 3 to 4 weeks ago, and then do the math.
> 
> Portugal's cases have been dropping since last week but, except for the slight decrease from last week, deaths keep increasing: 2 days left until i make my usual weekly report and Portugal already has 2 more deaths this week than last week, in total.



Briefing is from yesterday. Numbers are from Feb 1 2021 - Aug 2 2021 (6 months).  I'll add to clarify.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 7, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> UK August 6 briefing
> 
> (Feb 1 2021 - Aug 2 2021)
> Delta Cases
> ...



Dates are out. I think those figures are for one week.


----------



## HTC (Aug 7, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Dates are out. I think those figures are for one week.



Makes sense: then he ought to compare this week's deaths VS 3 to 4 weeks new cases, since that's around the time that between case being detected and the fatality outcome.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 7, 2021)

Also, our Vax rate is massive. Most cases will be from vaccinated people.

Pfizer is about 80% effective against Delta. With even 66million (UK pop) fully vaxxed, that's still 13 million possible cases.


----------



## HTC (Aug 7, 2021)

Portugal had a total of 77 deaths last week and 17878 cases, as per my report: 3 to 4 weeks earlier, we had 18886 and 14541 new cases respectively.

Since Portugal had quite an increase in new cases before they began to drop again, we're expecting the deaths to climb further before beginning to drop. HOWEVER, we've been increasing our vaccination which WILL reduce the number of deaths, with the question being: by how much.

There's no data about percent of vaccinated VS non-vaccinated that are hospitalized / dead: if there is, i don't have access to it.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 7, 2021)

I added the chart so you two can debate it.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 7, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I added the chart so you two can debate it.


Still confused by the date range. Delta wasn't known till April.

However, from that table, check out the age split. Under 50's unvaxxed are hammered by Delta. Under 50's vaxxed look well protected.


----------



## 64K (Aug 7, 2021)

Here in my county. Age group, number of cases and percent of reported cases:

0-10
3116                               
6%                           
11-20
6506                               
13%               
21-30
9654                               
20%                        
31-40
7702                               
16%                     
41-50
6808                               
14%                       
51-60
6279                               
13%                         
61-70
4460                               
9%                        
 
71-80
2474                               
5%                 
81+
1262                               
3%


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 7, 2021)

Here is another interesting chart.

For reference
SGTF = Alpha variant
AII3P = Delta variant






> This means that whilst vaccination may reduce an individual’s overall risk of becoming infected, *once they are infected there is limited difference in viral load (and Ct values) between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated*. *Given they have similar Ct values, this suggests limited difference in infectiousness.*



For Alpha differences varied in late May early June things started to shift
For Delta something happened in April for the differences to start closing

Interesting that Unvaccinated improved with Alpha & Vaccinated diminished with Delta


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 8, 2021)

Viral load does indeed seem similar, but symptoms seem lesser amonst the vaccinated from what I understand.  Interesting regardless.  Defininitely important to understanding how the virus spreads.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 8, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> UK August 6 briefing
> 
> (Feb 1 2021 - Aug 2 2021)
> Delta Cases
> ...



does this mean the vaccine does nothing? wth...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 8, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> does this mean the vaccine does nothing? wth...



I already told you specifically about Simpson's paradox. But give it a think, its probably more fun to figure it out on your own.



Spoiler: Hint



Hint: is there something that correlates with death more strongly than the vaccine? And is there a cross-correlation between this mysterious subcategory, and whether or not people decide to take the vaccine?





Spoiler: Answer



Old people got vaccinated at far higher rates than young people. Even if vaccinated, old people will die in larger rates than young people. However, the vaccine *still* saved the lives of countless old people. If you collate the deaths by age and vaccination status: it becomes obvious that the vaccine helps, but age remains a major issue. In either case: we've measured that the vaccine saves approximately 98% of lives and that remains a constant.

As it turns out, people with a higher chance to die have decided to largely take the vaccine at higher rates than people who have a lower chance to die.



EDIT: This is why we run experiments and have control groups. You gotta control for factors like this in an experiment. Just running the statistics after-the-fact has all sorts of paradoxes involved that make arguments and discussions very difficult.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 8, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> does this mean the vaccine does nothing? wth...



No. 40 million people are fully vaccinated in the UK. Delta is prevalent. Vaccine efficacy is lower, so perhaps 20% of those people may become infected. 20% of 40 million is 8 million infections. Of that number, some will die, almost all over 50, usually far older groups with underlying issues.

Unvaxxed younger people are more likely to die from Delta. 

If the UK wasn't so quick to vaccinate, we'd be in deep shit right now. If I was at home I'd post the graphs of the January (non Delta) surge and deaths, versus our summer Delta surge. The difference is staggering. Pre-vaccination, daily deaths rose as high as four figures on several occasions. This summer, with higher cases, deaths mostly stayed in double digits.

Don't be put off by select graphs. Look at the bigger picture of then and now to draw conclusions. As I've said, it's a numbers game and very soon, those few unvaccinated people will appear on graphs as blips but that's only because the UK has so few unvaccinated people.

In fact, using vaxxed versus unvaxxed is not statistically relevant now without comparing to previous surges.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 8, 2021)

Should add, a fully vaccinated person is less likely to get infected. If they do, they can still transmit the same viral load as the unvaccinated. But the point being, another vaccinated person is less likely to get infected. What you have is a chain of reduced transmission because of the vaccine. 

Tag onto that the known reductions in hospitalisations, as shown by UK figures, and those far reduced deaths. 

The vaccines were created to allow us to move forward. There was never a promise of complete immunity.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 8, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> No. 40 million people are fully vaccinated in the UK. Delta is prevalent. Vaccine efficacy is lower, so perhaps 20% of those people may become infected. 20% of 40 million is 8 million infections. Of that number, some will die, almost all over 50, usually far older groups with underlying issues.
> 
> *Unvaxxed younger people are more likely to die from Delta.*
> 
> ...


*1)* Obviously there are more Unvaccinated people in that group. I'll include the most recent data below..
Getting back to the graph if you just run the numbers on the below fifth

Fatal % <50
Full Vaccinated - 0.051
UnVaccinated - 0.033

Survival % <50
Full Vaccinated - 99.949
UnVaccinated - 99.967

Numbers from the UK are similar to the US CDC ACIP preventative ones I posted a few pages back. 


*2)* Lets see what your government had to say about that comparison in the same briefing


> case fatality rates are not comparable across variants


Might want to take it up with them


UK Vaccination rates by age group


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 8, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> *1)* Obviously there are more Unvaccinated people in that group. I'll include the most recent data below..
> Getting back to the graph if you just run the numbers on the below fifth
> 
> Fatal % <50
> ...



Lot of people in UK have not been scheduled for their second vaccination yet, this was not their choice. My friend who lives there is 35 and only recently got her second shot, just this week I believe. It goes by age over there, and unlike USA, they still do not have surplus shots. in USA we were spoiled with so many shots, and lot of numpkins not even willing to get one jab.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 8, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Lot of people in UK have not been scheduled for their second vaccination yet, this was not their choice. My friend who lives there is 35 and only recently got her second shot, just this week I believe. It goes by age over there, and unlike USA, they still do not have surplus shots. in USA we were spoiled with so many shots, and lot of numpkins not even willing to get one jab.



Understood. She also would have not been included in those numbers unless she was a confirmed case. Then if she was a confirmed case she'd be listed under the appropriate column.

I just find it interesting the praise of the process only to disagree with it or call it selective when they release numbers. Its as if one is Cheering Policy but Frowning on Numbers & Data.  Numbers will change for the better or worse as time goes on.


----------



## HTC (Aug 9, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 44933 active cases --- *5121 less --- 732 less per day*
- 924567 recovered --- 21053 more --- 3008 more per day
- 17467 fatalities --- 98 more --- 14 more per day
- 986967 confirmed infected --- 16030 more --- 2290 more per day

- 15715967 tests taken --- 501673 more --- 55741 more per day but was last updated August 7th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 12273911 vaccinated --- 617118 more --- last updated last yesterday but that corresponds to 6959984 1st doses + 5313927 2nd doses
- 849 hospitalized --- *74 less --- 11 less per day*
- 184 in ICU --- *16 less --- 2 less per day*

Week fatalities increased VS last week. The R number *decreased* again, with it now being 0.92 on average. Roughly 69% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 52.8% are fully vaccinated.

The new daily cases dropped again, but not as significantly as last week: let's hope they continue to drop further as we edge ever closer to 1M cases. Both hospitalized and ICU numbers have dropped VS last week: this didn't happen for quite some time.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 9, 2021)

HTC said:


> Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.
> 
> View attachment 211762View attachment 211763View attachment 211764View attachment 211765View attachment 211766View attachment 211767View attachment 211768View attachment 211769
> 
> ...



My connecting flight to England goes through Portugal, I really hope it's a nice airport and everyone wears a mask in that airport... It's really going to be my main risk factor, is waiting for the connecting flight... and waiting for the original flight. Hopefully neither of the planes are packed... hoping I can social distance sit... we'll see...

Covid is the most annoying crap in the world. Cause it's not deadly enough to really cause massive change to eradicate it overnight like the Spanish Flu was or historical pandemics, but it kills just enough to ruin everything else, and increase the continually ruining of everything, probably for the rest of our life. You can say a jab every year all you want, but just like the flu, some won't get it, and hot spots will always be a thing for rest of our lives. Like in Florida right now.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 9, 2021)

Eight cases, four deaths...








						Taiwan reports 4 local COVID cases, 4 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-08-09 14:36:00
					

Taiwan reports lowest cases seen in 3 months for 2nd day in a row | 2021-08-09 14:36:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Lot of people in UK have not been scheduled for their second vaccination yet, this was not their choice. My friend who lives there is 35 and only recently got her second shot, just this week I believe. It goes by age over there, and unlike USA, they still do not have surplus shots. in USA we were spoiled with so many shots, and lot of numpkins not even willing to get one jab.


It's also geographic in the UK, some high population areas are a little behind, my youngest daughter is 29 and gets her 2nd jab tomorrow, my eldest daughter is 36 and had her 2nd jab weeks ago, pretty much 3/4 of the adult population now has had 2 jabs, hospitalisations remain at around 1/7th of what they were with similar case rates in late January (Alpha variant dominant) and fatalities are considerably lower, point to note (again) that the majority of hospitalisations and fatalities are from the no or single jab population which I have said before, there are a proportion of double jab people who have been hospitalised or have died, these fall well within efficacy estimates ..............................



I am no statistician, but if you think that most serious flu cases occur between October and March annually, this is where just England sat in 2018 with Influenza, I am guessing the ambition is to try to reduce the current threat closer to those levels to reduce social/economic impact, I by nature am sceptical but only time will tell ...................

Influenza deaths per each region England in 2018 - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 10, 2021)

Monday is actually a bad day to get stats. I feel like the "weekend" biases the results. I already copy/pasted the data into here today though... I'll just try to remember to grab one tomorrow.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 211917
> 
> Monday is actually a bad day to get stats. I feel like the "weekend" biases the results. I already copy/pasted the data into here today though... I'll just try to remember to grab one tomorrow.



how is it bad? only 4 deaths. seems pretty good to me. testing positive doesn't mean anything anymore. its the deaths and hospitals that matter now.


----------



## claes (Aug 10, 2021)

Positive tests = community spread = more hospitalizations/deaths//opportunities for virus to further evolve


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

claes said:


> Positive tests = community spread = more hospitalizations/deaths//opportunities for virus to further evolve



not if your vaccinated. 0.001% chance of that if vaccinated, latest numbers direct from CNN yesterday. was on the front page of their site.

if you didn't get vaccinated tough luck at this point. if you immunocompromised you can still get the vaccine, and pay $10 out of pocket once a month to check on your antibody levels. if they fall to low, you can request special permission from your doctor for a booster. doctor prob won't say no in special circumstances like that.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> not if your vaccinated. 0.001% chance of that if vaccinated, latest numbers direct from CNN yesterday. was on the front page of their site.
> 
> if you didn't get vaccinated tough luck at this point. if you immunocompromised you can still get the vaccine, and pay $10 out of pocket once a month to check on your antibody levels. if they fall to low, you can request special permission from your doctor for a booster. doctor prob won't say no in special circumstances like that.



This is what leads to mistrust

CNN says 99.999% = 0.001%

Then they say unvaccinated have 25x more of a chance

0.001 x 25 = 0.025

So UnVaccinated have a 99.975%

That doesnt get ratings so they leave that out.


----------



## claes (Aug 10, 2021)

Your chances of dying from cancer are 0.00001%. The differences you’re talking about are gigantic.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 10, 2021)

claes said:


> Your chances of dying from cancer are 0.00001%. The differences you’re talking about are gigantic.



Mortality for Covid per 100k as of Aug 8
187.92



			
				Cancer.org said:
			
		

> The overall cancer death rate (per 100,000 population) in 2014-2018 was 155.5, with a higher rate in males (185.5) than in females (133.5)


----------



## nguyen (Aug 10, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> It's also geographic in the UK, some high population areas are a little behind, my youngest daughter is 29 and gets her 2nd jab tomorrow, my eldest daughter is 36 and had her 2nd jab weeks ago, pretty much 3/4 of the adult population now has had 2 jabs, hospitalisations remain at around 1/7th of what they were with similar case rates in late January (Alpha variant dominant) and fatalities are considerably lower, point to note (again) that the majority of hospitalisations and fatalities are from the no or single jab population which I have said before, there are a proportion of double jab people who have been hospitalised or have died, these fall well within efficacy estimates ..............................
> 
> I am no statistician, but if you think that most serious flu cases occur between October and March annually, this is where just England sat in 2018 with Influenza, I am guessing the ambition is to try to reduce the current threat closer to those levels to reduce social/economic impact, I by nature am sceptical but only time will tell ...................
> 
> Influenza deaths per each region England in 2018 - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)



So deaths per day because of Covid at its peak in Dec 2020 is equal to a whole year of deaths from Influenza at its peak year? that is like 360x more fatality rate and there never was any lockdown because of Influenza in history.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

An NFL player that tested positive for Covid a month ago, was his second time getting covid, first time was late November 2020 same as me.  Good thing I got my jab in early June.  The NFL player said lots of fatigue and lots of sleep, but back to normal now. 

but, I mean if Delta can do even that to a world class athlete... 

I think I will get my second jab soon... prob middle to late August, moving up my timeline from late September...


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Mortality for Covid per 100k as of Aug 8
> 187.92


I thought it has been said and repeated many times - it is not just about the mortality rate. It is about reducing hospitalization and not overwhelmed the hospitals ER and ICU departments. It is about patients care and not suffering. It is about allowing other non-Covid patients to receive their care, including ER and ICU. The mortality rate of Covid is lower than the Spanish flu. The advancement in medicine has made that possible.

Many Covid patients were on ventilators and survived, but suffered long term effects known as "long Covid" - scarring of the hearts and lungs, brain fog, etc. Look them up. These long term effects will also increase future medical costs and insurance for all of us. Scientists are still studying these long term effects.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> how is it bad? only 4 deaths. seems pretty good to me. testing positive doesn't mean anything anymore. its the deaths and hospitals that matter now.



I'm not convinced my state collects statistics correctly over the weekend. Monday statistics are always slightly different from Tuesdays / Wednesdays, or really any other day of the week.


----------



## nguyen (Aug 10, 2021)

Covid related deaths in my city is reported to be around 300 per day (we have been under strict lockdowns for over a month now), but undisclosed information from 1 cremation center that they are overbooked by 16k orders . Delta variant is really wreaking havoc here as it is highly contagious even under hot climate, I guess aerosol spread faster under hot climate?
I guess only vaccination + strict social distancing can save us now.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

nguyen said:


> Covid related deaths in my city is reported to be around 300 per day (we have been under strict lockdowns for over a month now), but undisclosed information from 1 cremation center that they are overbooked by 16k orders . Delta variant is really wreaking havoc here as it is highly contagious even under hot climate, I guess aerosol spread faster under hot climate?
> I guess only vaccination + strict social distancing can save us now.



yeah, really wish I had invested in a little camper for nature get aways in 2019. prices are too high now. seems I am not only one with that idea.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 10, 2021)

As you can see, its Tuesday, and every single number is "worse" than Monday's numbers.

As stated last time: I don't trust Monday data! I think the officials collecting go "easy" on the weekends and maybe lose a few cases or something. I dunno. But its pretty consistent. Either that, or maybe people don't like going to the hospital on a Sunday and prefer to tough it out until Monday (which won't be collected in the statistics until Tuesday at the earliest).



nguyen said:


> Covid related deaths in my city is reported to be around 300 per day (we have been under strict lockdowns for over a month now), but undisclosed information from 1 cremation center that they are overbooked by 16k orders . Delta variant is really wreaking havoc here as it is highly contagious even under hot climate, I guess aerosol spread faster under hot climate?
> I guess only vaccination + strict social distancing can save us now.



It happened last July/August too.

People tend to congregate at indoor locations during July/August because of the heat. In contrast, Spring / Fall are safer, because more people prefer the outdoors when the weather is fair and pleasant.


----------



## HTC (Aug 10, 2021)

There's something going on with Portugal's vaccination numbers:




VS





This 1st pic i actually posted last week (still no numbers for this week) and the 2nd pic was taken from today's main report: notice the difference?

Last week it was all over the news that Portugal had reached 70% with 1st dose TWO DAYS ahead of schedule. Yet, according to our main report, we still haven't achieved 70% and the number posted is actually LOWER than what's posted in the vaccination dedicated page FROM LAST WEEK, so which is it ...? And i'm not even talking about 2nd doses, where the difference is way WAY higher.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 10, 2021)

Jeez. This is beginning to get shared around.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424832448081403905
Eight ICU beds left in all of Arkansas.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Jeez. This is beginning to get shared around.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424832448081403905
> Eight ICU beds left in all of Arkansas.



Is that the same governor who admitted on TV last week he regretted saying no masks needed or something?   

I 100% believe in less government for most things, but I also don't think a mask is that big of a deal.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 11, 2021)

They locked down the nursing homes in my small town again, for the first time in a long long time. Odd too, because my county is 70% vaccinated (more I think now actually, its been awhile since I checked on it). Surprised they locked down the nursing homes, all the nursing home patients have both jabs. They should simply require a CDC card showing you had both jabs before you can enter imo, besides isolating already lonely people...

Honestly, this most recent development, and it being so local. Is really confusing the crap out of me. I literally can't stand covid anymore.

So who wants to go half and half on a cabin in the woods and grow our own food and chill and read and swim in a pond?

Or buy a sailboat and go live on remote islands and eat coconuts and fish.  @yotano211 LOL


----------



## Caring1 (Aug 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> So who wants to go half and half on a cabin in the woods and grow our own food and chill and read and swim in a pond?
> LOL


I've tried that and oddly enough the Government still wants money so it's hard to live off the land without an income, if you own the land, might be different if you squat and totally go off the grid.


----------



## 64K (Aug 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> They locked down the nursing homes in my small town again, for the first time in a long long time. Odd too, because my county is 70% vaccinated (more I think now actually, its been awhile since I checked on it). Surprised they locked down the nursing homes, all the nursing home patients have both jabs. They should simply require a CDC card showing you had both jabs before you can enter imo, besides isolating already lonely people...
> 
> Honestly, this most recent development, and it being so local. Is really confusing the crap out of me. I literally can't stand covid anymore.
> 
> ...



There's no escaping Covid. You can live in an isolated cabin but you are still going to need some food that you can't get from growing on your property or hunting so into town you go. You're going to need fuel so into town you go. You're going to need clothes and shoes so into town you go. You're going to need medical appointments and prescriptions so into town you go. You're going to need dental work so into town you go. Family members are going to pass away occasionally so you would have to go to funerals and also possibly have to fly on crowded airlines.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 11, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> I've tried that and oddly enough the Government still wants money so it's hard to live off the land without an income, if you own the land, might be different if you squat and totally go off the grid.











						New Hampshire man in jail after squatting for 30 years in woods
					

A New Hampshire man was arrested after being accused for squatting on private property for almost three decades.




					news.yahoo.com
				




It worked for him for 30 years! lol... he never bothered anyone. never left any trash. yet while he was in jail, "mysteriously his place burned down" after 30 years of building it up.  

The Judge from what I read didn't even seem mad at him for it, but the law is the law.

but yes, at end of the day you are right. he probably never would have been caught if he didn't keep inviting strangers in to tell his story. lol at least I read that is what he did a lot. everyone seemed to like him, even the local townsfolk. this guy is like 1776 hardcore and I love it. LOL



64K said:


> There's no escaping Covid. You can live in an isolated cabin but you are still going to need some food that you can't get from growing on your property or hunting so into town you go. You're going to need fuel so into town you go. You're going to need clothes and shoes so into town you go. You're going to need medical appointments and prescriptions so into town you go. You're going to need dental work so into town you go. Family members are going to pass away occasionally so you would have to go to funerals and also possibly have to fly on crowded airlines.



the food thing is the main problem yes, though if one were to save up say 50 grand over several years working, then just have food delivered to a relative once in awhile, and you pick it up off their porch... (yes I am aware still a chance for exposure even if you sprayed it all down, but minimal), that 50 grand should last you a long time on food though, assuming you don't eat extravagantly and its only helping you support your growing that you do in a little greenhouse, etc...

no need for fuel. wood and and nearby creek as water source is all needed there.

I still have clothes I wear that are 20 years old that fit me fine. same with shoes, I can just stock up on those and have a little wood building just for that small stockpile. 

I need medical appointments now for my scoliosis but can't do them so I mean eh

Dental work is a bit of a pickle I admit, you got me there. If having bad pain, it would heck to live with it. 


that being said... this was all hypothetical and I am just having fun with it. at end of day... I would love a little weekend nature get away though. work remote, plus a weekend nature get away would still limit my expose by  A LOT!!!  wouldn't be failproof def not, but my odds would be way higher of not getting it than the next guy.

also, I literally don't get out much even before covid. i like being a homebody, enjoying my games and books and card games, gardening, etc. my only problem is I don't make enough just yet to get on my own with a small house on outskirts of small town. that's my dream really. I currently live with 3 other people, one of which is my Dad who never took covid seriously and gave it to all of us in November 2020. so. yeah. I want to live on my own. 

mods about to be mad though at the essay I just wrote for fun... so I go now...


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 11, 2021)

I've been waiting to get back to a PC...

There's been a lot of numbers getting thrown around about vaccines and how effective they are. Some appear to suggest the vaccines are no more effective than no vaccine. But the epidemiological evidence does not support that. As the UK is 75% fully vaxxed (adults), the majoprity of cases in an 80% effective vaccine will be from vaccinated people. What the stats fail to show is the experience within hospitals where cases from vaccinated patients are less severe.

The following numbers come from Public Health Scotland (5 million population).

Week beginning 2nd August (7 day data), 4 weeks after the huge July peak:

*24 deaths*, age brackets:
85+ = 11 (46%)
75-84 = 6 (25%)
65-74 = 1 (4%)
45-64 = 6 (25%)
<45 = no deaths

Week beginning February 1st (7 day data), 4 weeks after the cases peaked (at a far lower count than our July 'World Cup' spreader event)

*304 deaths*, age brackets:
85+ = 115 (38%)
75-84 = 114 (37%)
65-74 = 48 (16%)
45-64 = 25 (8%)
25-44 = 2 (<1%)

After mass vaccinations, with a higher recorded rate of cases, including the delta variant, current deaths are *8%* that of January's figure.

Context has to be used when measuring data, and looking back at pre-vaccine statistics is essential to making an informed opinion. The majority of the UK is now partially or fully vaccinated (and also recovered) against Covid. This is how 'performance reporting' works - you need a prior benchmark to gauge effectiveness of any solution. Using the publicly available data, it's clear the vaccines have worked well. Not perfectly but very, very, well.

It's also important to take into consideration, the figures from August reflect a period when we had very few rules in place, compared to January (full lockdown after a short opening at Christmas). We're seeing an uptick in cases again though as the majority of people get back to business. And that's another point, we're going to see higher case numbers and deaths as more people meet up again. But referring to the first numbers, 75% of Scottish deaths last week were in the over 65's. And our general health is the worst in Europe.


----------



## nguyen (Aug 11, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> I've been waiting to get back to a PC...
> 
> There's been a lot of numbers getting thrown around about vaccines and how effective they are. Some appear to suggest the vaccines are no more effective than no vaccine. But the epidemiological evidence does not support that. As the UK is 75% fully vaxxed (adults), the majoprity of cases in an 80% effective vaccine will be from vaccinated people. What the stats fail to show is the experience within hospitals where cases from vaccinated patients are less severe.
> 
> ...



Yeah my entire family and I just got the first dose of vaccine, which I think is most important against serious illness from Covid, second dose is mostly to reduce the rate of spreading. I guess my country is learning from the UK, just get the first dose out ASAP, second dose can wait.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 11, 2021)

16 cases today, up from seven yesterday...








						Taiwan reports 12 local COVID cases, 2 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-08-11 14:31:00
					

Taiwan reports 2 COVID deaths, brining death toll to 816 | 2021-08-11 14:31:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Vayra86 (Aug 11, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> If they didn't pick up delta on current tests yes they are not good enough no spin involved it's fact.
> Bugger test was never any good.



The virus mutates. So you may have a perfect test for Delta and all the others today, and tomorrow a new mutation slips through and you're effectively back at square one, you can repeat your argument ad infinitum that way.

Pretty pointless. The same thing goes for vaccines, but vaccination has a lasting effect while a test is just a momentary status check.

End of the day, we're gonna have to live with it being present. Do you want to keep testing for entry everywhere? What's the point? We're all fucked anyway and vaccination is the only true measure of protection.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 11, 2021)

​TT: Herd immunity a ‘mythical’ goal that will never be reached, says Oxford vaccine head​


> Herd immunity “is not a possibility” because the delta variant can spread among vaccinated individuals, according to experts including the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group.
> 
> In a parliamentary panel on Tuesday, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard warned that herd immunity is a “mythical” concept and should not inform the design of vaccination programmes in the UK or across the globe.





> Mounting evidence that jabs don't halt transmission​Data published last week by Public Health England found there is little difference in how much virus is present in vaccinated and unvaccinated people who test positive for Covid-19, *suggesting the shots do not suppress viral replication as much as hoped*. Scientists had believed that a lower viral load would prevent onward transmission.
> 
> The study chimes with evidence from the United States, where a recent study of an outbreak in Massachusetts found viral loads were similar among 127 fully vaccinated people and 84 others who were unvaccinated.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 11, 2021)

Doesn't sound like a whole lot of statistics here people. Topic.


----------



## yotano211 (Aug 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> They locked down the nursing homes in my small town again, for the first time in a long long time. Odd too, because my county is 70% vaccinated (more I think now actually, its been awhile since I checked on it). Surprised they locked down the nursing homes, all the nursing home patients have both jabs. They should simply require a CDC card showing you had both jabs before you can enter imo, besides isolating already lonely people...
> 
> Honestly, this most recent development, and it being so local. Is really confusing the crap out of me. I literally can't stand covid anymore.
> 
> ...


You still need to maintain that boat. Salt eats away at anything inside and outside on a boat.


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 11, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> The virus mutates. So you may have a perfect test for Delta and all the others today, and tomorrow a new mutation slips through and you're effectively back at square one, you can repeat your argument ad infinitum that way.
> 
> Pretty pointless. The same thing goes for vaccines, but vaccination has a lasting effect while a test is just a momentary status check.
> 
> End of the day, we're gonna have to live with it being present. Do you want to keep testing for entry everywhere? What's the point? We're all fucked anyway and vaccination is the only true measure of protection.


Hi,
Testing is already being done quite a bit so the beat goes on problem is it's very flawed 
Vaccination also deteriorates over time so what a jab or two every 6 months lol


----------



## Vayra86 (Aug 11, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Testing is already being done quite a bit so the beat goes on problem is it's very flawed
> Vaccination also deteriorates over time so what a jab or two every 6 months lol



A yearly jab? I wouldnt discount the possibility and influenza is in the same place already... 6 months is a much harder one to swallow, seeing as you do notice it for a day or two.

But yeah. The debate is already on about 3rd booster shots. Personally Ive been saying this since mid 2020. It will happen and is, as we speak.

Opposite direction is China that still thinks they can hammer it down banning all cases and then stop dancing. We'll be dancing though, make no mistake and even China will change its stance.


----------



## 64K (Aug 11, 2021)

That 3rd shot is most likely going to happen and a yearly booster as well that could possibly boost immunity to whatever variants are around.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 11, 2021)

More posts, less topic.  If you would like to discuss vaccines and their efficacy, there is a thread in the lounge for that.  The op would politely ask that you stick to the topic at hand.


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 11, 2021)

Hi,
That's what I've run across these dual shots deteriorate after 6 months down to 40% effective 
So yeah another every 6 months is where things are going seeing not many stats have stated when these delta cases on vaccinated people got their shots

They've even stated people that got the J&J single shot can get the other vaccines too heck it was only 60% effective out the gate on it's single jab so it dropping to less than 40% after six months is very likely.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 11, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> ​TT: Herd immunity a ‘mythical’ goal that will never be reached, says Oxford vaccine head​



Even more important to get vaccinated then. From the article:



> vaccines may slightly slow the transmission process, as there is some evidence that inoculated people are infectious for a shorter period of time, but warned “we don't have anything” which will completely halt the spread of Covid-19.





> While vaccines have been shown to protect against severe illness, hospitalisation and deaths, mounting data suggests they do not halt transmission.





> ..
> other experts have stressed that, even with similar loads, vaccinated people are unlikely to transmit at the same rate as those unvaccinated - and more research is needed to confirm the research.
> 
> 
> “Even if viral load may be the same, vaccinated people who become infected are less likely to be infectious than unvaccinated because *vaccines reduce virus shedding time, symptomatic infection, and the presence of immune response will suppress the viable virus*,” said Dr Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and virology at St Andrews University.


----------



## Ahhzz (Aug 11, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Rings a bell.


I think I'd consider an article quoting the director of Oxford's Vaccination team, a "science" article. Stay on topic, report questionable posts, and direct any issues via PM, per the guidelines. Thanks!


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 11, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> I think I'd consider an article quoting the director of Oxford's Vaccination team, a "science" article. Stay on topic, report questionable posts, and direct any issues via PM, per the guidelines. Thanks!


Thanks!  Noted. I was just following the spirit of our op.  The one who created this thread because people were trying to keep statistics and maps about the spread.

Their intent was to disconnect all the talk about vaccines and masks so that maps and statistics could be shared and viewed without all the rest of the bs.  Just trying to be a good citizen servant.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 11, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> ​TT: Herd immunity a ‘mythical’ goal that will never be reached, says Oxford vaccine head​



Smallpox could spread among the vaccinated. In fact, smallpox *killed* 1% of the vaccinated.

We achieved herd immunity. This shit isn't new.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 11, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> We achieved herd immunity. This shit isn't new.


Tell that to Oxford, after all they are the ones that said it.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 11, 2021)

The title of this thread was changed at the OP's request some time ago.

Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19​
Moving forward, that means posts need to focus on the science (which can be a written comment based on the science), or charts, data, and maps. Basically, anything that reports on the ongoing situation surrounding the numbers and the impact of Covid.

The Lounge thread is the best place for other material, although there will be crossover (a mask discussion when a study has been conducted on their impact, for example). In fact, I'm going over there right now to talk about masks.


----------



## xkm1948 (Aug 11, 2021)

More than 50 long‑term effects of COVID‑19: a systematic review and meta‑analysis

Scientific Report from Nature Publishing Group. This is open access paper so evveryone should be able to read it just fine.









						More than 50 long-term effects of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis - Scientific Reports
					

COVID-19 can involve persistence, sequelae, and other medical complications that last weeks to months after initial recovery. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to identify studies assessing the long-term effects of COVID-19. LitCOVID and Embase were searched to identify articles with...




					www.nature.com
				




I took the figures from paper and clipped here in case you dont have time to read the whole thing.


Please get vaccinated. For you, for your loved ones.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 11, 2021)

The country is clearly inflected downwards: +30% growth this past week while the week before was 40% growth. Key states like Florida have dropped from ~25% growth to ~15% growth, suggesting the peak is near.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 11, 2021)

yotano211 said:


> You still need to maintain that boat. Salt eats away at anything inside and outside on a boat.



Who says we are going on salt water? Let's stay on the 5 great lakes!!! yeeeehaaa!!! 



Vayra86 said:


> A yearly jab? I wouldnt discount the possibility and influenza is in the same place already... 6 months is a much harder one to swallow, seeing as you do notice it for a day or two.
> 
> But yeah. The debate is already on about 3rd booster shots. Personally Ive been saying this since mid 2020. It will happen and is, as we speak.
> 
> Opposite direction is China that still thinks they can hammer it down banning all cases and then stop dancing. We'll be dancing though, make no mistake and even China will change its stance.



China has mRNA vaccines in the works. They are just making sure there are no long term side effects since it is a new technology (well not new technology, but new in the way it is currently being used). So when scientists say, in all of vaccine history, no vaccine has ever had side effects show up 2-6 months after initial dose given. This is true for old tech, but this is new... and a new way of using that new... so you can't compare apples and oranges.

Again, disclaimer, no I am not anti-vax, I got my Pfizer jab. Just saying, I think I understand China's logic.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 11, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> A yearly jab? I wouldnt discount the possibility and influenza is in the same place already... 6 months is a much harder one to swallow, seeing as you do notice it for a day or two.



Flu immunity wanes in just 6 months. But we can make due with yearly jabs nonetheless.

For COVID19... but vaccine immunity is known to be longer than 6 months. Natural immunity may wane in 6 months, but vaccine immunity is stronger and longer than natural immunity. Still an unknown for how long vaccine immunity lasts exactly, but we're already "past the flu" on this metric.

Smallpox immunity lasted for 5 years after vaccination. Hopefully we get something like smallpox's vaccine, but even then, you needed to keep up with those shots to wipe out Smallpox from our population.

-------

The "3rd shot" will happen. The debate is if its 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, or 5-year thing (or longer. The chickenpox vaccine lasts somewhere between 10 to 20 years). Beyond the vaccine immunity period... there's also the issue of variants. A booster designed vs Delta would be more effective at stopping Delta's spread. So if Delta becomes dominant (and the point of evolution: ex: Delta-plus variants like AY.3 become dominant later), then making a Delta-specific booster, even before immunity has waned, is going to be the natural policy result.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 11, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Smallpox could spread among the vaccinated. In fact, smallpox *killed* 1% of the vaccinated.
> 
> We achieved herd immunity. This shit isn't new.



Dr. Larry Brilliant who worked to eradicate smallpox



> “Unless we vaccinate everyone in 200-plus countries, there will still be new variants,”
> 
> He pointed out that just 15 per cent of the world population has been inoculated and about 100 countries have vaccinated just 5 per cent of their populations.





> *“Mass vaccination never worked,” he says. “Not against smallpox*, not against Ebola, not against polio. It is just a dream.”


Might want to give him a lecture on his work


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 12, 2021)

Ok, riddle me this I guesss...  if the smallpox vaccine did not work, what did?


----------



## Vayra86 (Aug 12, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Ok, riddle me this I guesss...  if the smallpox vaccine did not work, what did?



Depends. Blue or Red pill?



lynx29 said:


> Who says we are going on salt water? Let's stay on the 5 great lakes!!! yeeeehaaa!!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



A different interpretation, China's logic is unrelated to its vaccine quality, but rather to its government and culture. This is what they know: hard repression achieves success. Hard lockdown efforts worked. But this is a globalized world and Chinas economy relies on it fully. Like in every other country, they are going to have to balance that out or the country is unattractive to deal with.


----------



## yotano211 (Aug 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Who says we are going on salt water? Let's stay on the 5 great lakes!!! yeeeehaaa!!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The great lakes are too cold for me. You'll find me further south.



ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> That's what I've run across these dual shots deteriorate after 6 months down to 40% effective
> So yeah another every 6 months is where things are going seeing not many stats have stated when these delta cases on vaccinated people got their shots
> 
> They've even stated people that got the J&J single shot can get the other vaccines too heck it was only 60% effective out the gate on it's single jab so it dropping to less than 40% after six months is very likely.


I got the J&J single shot. That thing knocked me out for 3 days. Everything was hurting even my rear end. For almost a full day I couldn't sit straight because my left a$$ muscle ached.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> this guy is like 1776 hardcore and I love it. LOL


This was my path, except for the whole squatting thing. I was only about $10k from being able to purchase the land.  Then all I needed to do was save up the cash to figure out solar etc.  Property had two springs and about 20 acres.

Covid put a damper on that with some of my key investments struggling.  Retirement just moves to 45-48 range instead of 40.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 12, 2021)

LQ'd a lot of posts.

Don't be offended. If it's LQ'd it's a better lounge fit (very general Covid discussion). I've LQ'd posts about personal vaccine experiences (others I've left). Moderating this thread is like filtering flour from bicarbonate. I'll not get everything so don't gripe.

Stats, Science, Data, and tracking. Please.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 12, 2021)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/vaccinated-counties-delta-hotspots/
		


WashPo created 3 graphics. Hotspots in 54%+ vaccinated areas. Hotspots in 40-54% vaccinated areas, and hotspots in 40% or less vaccinated areas.















The virus can spread to higher vaccinated areas. And yet, when we look at the numbers, we see that...









						All COVID patients in LA County-run hospitals are unvaccinated, official says
					

As the Delta variant continues its rapid spread in Los Angeles County, Dr. Christina Ghaly says unvaccinated people now account for all COVID-19 hospitalizations at county-run hospitals.




					abc7.com
				




LA may have a huge amount of COVID19 cases coming in, but virtually every hospitalization is an unvaccinated individual. The 46%ish side of the population who refused to get vaccinated. So even in our "highly vaccinated" areas, we are seeing that the unvaccinated remain at fault for spreading this disease.

We can see that low-vaccination rates highly correlate to being a COVID19 "Hot-spot" as well.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 12, 2021)

I'd think it's fairer to say 'declined' vaccination, than 'refused'. Remember, not everyone can be vaccinated for health reasons. Saying someone 'refuses' is inferring they are a problem which isn't necessarily the case. For example, someone might refuse vaccination but maintain social distancing. Likewise, suggesting people are at fault isn't helpful to a debate that is already highly emotive. I don't say this as a moderator - I say it as an observer. Some people are idiots and refuse vaccines on moronic grounds (micro-chips in the needle type nonsense) but others are wary of the vaccine for other reasons (phobia of needles, phobia of medical process) and IMO, it's not fair to label them as 'bad' agents.

Softening the rhetoric goes a long way to building bridges.

And to be clear, I say this as a member, NOT a mod.

In the UK, vaccinated people are presenting in hospital so it's erroneous to use the California hospitalisation stats as a global measure of vaccine efficacy. (This last sentence is based on UK stats).


----------



## HTC (Aug 12, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> I'd think it's fairer to say 'declined' vaccination, than 'refused'. Remember, not everyone can be vaccinated for health reasons. Saying someone 'refuses' is inferring they are a problem which isn't necessarily the case. For example, someone might refuse vaccination but maintain social distancing. Likewise, suggesting people are at fault isn't helpful to a debate that is already highly emotive. I don't say this as a moderator - I say it as an observer. Some people are idiots and refuse vaccines on moronic grounds (micro-chips in the needle type nonsense)* but others are wary of the vaccine for other reasons (phobia of needles, phobia of medical process) and IMO, it's not fair to label them as 'bad' agents.*
> 
> Softening the rhetoric goes a long way to building bridges.
> 
> ...



Agreed.

For example, my brother's girlfriend has a severe needle phobia and it was quite the ordeal to get her vaccinated, or so she and my brother described it.

My sister knows a married couple of 65+ year olds with other medical issues and they refused to get vaccinated because they are scared of the vaccines: she tried to convince them but failed.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 12, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> phobia of needles,


Oooooo, I had to get an injection in my back for a disc issue.  Stood up to leave and the nurse asked me where I was going.  She said I was white as a sheet.  Next thing I know it all started getting dark.  Took several years to get over that, and no idea why I all of a sudden had a hurrendous phobia of needles.  Much, much better now.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 12, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Oooooo, I had to get an injection in my back for a disc issue.  Stood up to leave and the nurse asked me where I was going.  She said I was white as a sheet.  Next thing I know it all started getting dark.  Took several years to get over that, and no idea why I all of a sudden had a hurrendous phobia of needles.  Much, much better now.



A nurse drew me blood about ten years ago or so, she couldn't find the vein the needle was in me for like 15 seconds or so as she searched, I passed out as well, first time in my life I passed out, I thought I was dying when my vision started going white so I grabbed her hand gently as I was yelling cause I didn't want to die feeling alone. LOL  

in other news, I wonder if the doctors and scientists will still keep their rhetoric up if this study results in anything definitive. "vaccines always show their side effects within a few months, that's how we know this vaccine is safe" they have said that over and over and over, and I have said over and and over you can't compare apples to oranges... mrna used in this way is new tech anyway you cut it.








						EU looking into new possible side-effects of mRNA COVID-19 shots
					

Three new conditions reported by a small number of people after vaccination with COVID-19 shots from Pfizer (PFE.N) and Moderna (MRNA.O) are being studied to assess if they may be possible side-effects, Europe's drugs regulator said on Wednesday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 12, 2021)

Incase people haven't seen this. IMH (Israel Ministry of Health) on VE on Delta and its effectiveness over time.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 12, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Incase people haven't seen this. IMD on VE on Delta and its effectiveness over time.
> 
> View attachment 212331


Can you quote source please? My Hebrew isn't very good.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 12, 2021)

Florida governor deploying rapid-response team to fight Covid-19 surge | CNN
					

As the Delta variant drives a surge of Covid-19 cases in Florida, a rapid-response unit will be deployed to administer monoclonal antibody treatments to residents infected with the virus, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Thursday.




					www.cnn.com
				




Hey look everyone, remember those states where majority decided not to get vaccinated? Now they get our tax payer funded hugely expensive monoclonal antibodies in mass for free! Yay!  Isn't the state of union strong and healthy everyone?? Let's clap together in unison now, 1, 2, 3, time to go buy ice cream!


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Can you quote source please? My Hebrew isn't very good.


It was from the Book of Ezekiel 3:24.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 13, 2021)

Florida at -5% growth (!!!). This is a weekly-average, which suggests that Florida's numbers have peaked. (Knock on wood.)

US Average is +22%, which is a inflected-down from my last posting.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 13, 2021)

WashPo is suggesting in a new article that more children are getting sick of COVID19. Perhaps the Delta variant is better at infecting children than the original strain?

Today, there are more children in hospitals for COVID19 than even back in the "winter surge".


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> WashPo is suggesting in a new article that more children are getting sick of COVID19. Perhaps the Delta variant is better at infecting children than the original strain?


Interesting information out there from the creator of mRNA tech that says the virus can actually become more infectious because of the mRNA vaccine.  The only remotely credible resource I can find it was a reprint by MSN.  Heavy emphasis on 'remotely credible'.  I have no idea how credible it is, how edited it is but since it is from the creator of mRNA, I'll file it away for later usage.  After all, the idea of the lab leak was grounds for ostracization so maybe this will be useful someday.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Interesting information out there from the creator of mRNA tech that says the virus can actually become more infectious because of the mRNA vaccine.  The only remotely credible resource I can find it was a reprint by MSN.  Heavy emphasis on 'remotely credible'.  I have no idea how credible it is, how edited it is but since it is from the creator of mRNA, I'll file it away for later usage.  After all, the idea of the lab leak was grounds for ostracization so maybe this will be useful someday.


Having problems finding anthing remotely like that. Can you source it? And you don't get ostracised for sourcing rounded factual info. Just unsubstantiated rumour.

Found this:









						False: Dr. Robert Malone invented mRNA vaccines.
					

It is Dr. Katalin Karikó and her collaborator Dr. Drew Weissman who are more commonly credited with laying the groundwork for mRNA vaccines.




					www.logically.ai
				






> While Malone's research may have been important, scientific breakthroughs don't always boast a sole "inventor." Instead, they come about through the work of many.
> 
> 
> UPDATE: Malone reached out to Logically, stating that he did not invent the mRNA vaccines, but instead the "vaccine technology platform." *He also presented us with copies of nine patents – none of which showed that he invented the mRNA vaccines.*



Looking a little further into Malone, I can see which media outlets and podcasts he's been appearing on. I won't get political but it's quite clear he's courting vaccine deniers and using misinformation riding on his past credits (one of which was not inventing mRNA).


----------



## xkm1948 (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Interesting information out there from the creator of mRNA tech that says the *virus can actually become more infectious because of the mRNA vaccine.*  The only remotely credible resource I can find it was a reprint by MSN.  Heavy emphasis on 'remotely credible'.  I have no idea how credible it is, how edited it is but since it is from the creator of mRNA, I'll file it away for later usage.  After all, the idea of the lab leak was grounds for ostracization so maybe this will be useful someday.




No it will not. They function at completely different ways. mRNA vaccine needs to get inside the cells, get translated to protein and then get the protein picked up by immune cells. Viron get inside cells through receptor binding, they release their RNA based genome once inside host cells. RNA genome of virus is also different from mRNA. mRNA requires specific modification down to both ends of molecule for it to translate. RNA genome does not have that. Immune function does not target mRNA molecule itself.

I am lost of words. The amount of false information, misinformation or straight out lies thrown around is insane from media outlets.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 13, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 212455
> 
> *WashPo is suggesting in a new article that more children are getting sick of COVID19*. Perhaps the Delta variant is better at infecting children than the original strain?
> 
> Today, there are more children in hospitals for COVID19 than even back in the "winter surge".


I am not sure how many in the UK actually got sick in May and June with Delta where we were at our worst but I do know that under 18's allegedly accounted for 80% of our infections and therefore mainly from school settings.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> No it will not. They function at completely different ways. mRNA vaccine needs to get inside the cells, get translated to protein and then get the protein picked up by immune cells. Viron get inside cells through receptor binding, they release their RNA based genome once inside host cells. RNA genome of virus is also different from mRNA. mRNA requires specific modification down to both ends of molecule for it to translate. RNA genome does not have that. Immune function does not target mRNA molecule itself.
> 
> I am lost of words. The amount of false information, misinformation or straight out lies thrown around is insane from media outlets.


This is what was sent to me:



> “This is precisely what one would see if antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) was happening. What is antibody dependent enhancement? Briefly, it’s that the vaccine causes the virus to become more infectious than would happen in the absence of vaccination, would cause the virus to replicate at higher levels than in the absence of infection.”



And came across articles for Dr. Malone, not actually the inventer, more of earlier contributor. I believe that quote came from a podcast or someone posted about it on Twitter.  That's as far as I made it.  Other than he does t recommend it for younger kids.

As I said before, I have no idea how credible it was/is.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 13, 2021)

Information on ADE:





__





						Are COVID-19 vaccines causing antibody-dependent enhancement?
					

May 25, 2021 by Health Desk – As of May 2021, there is no evidence to suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are leading to antibody-dependent enhancement.




					health-desk.org
				






> So far there have been no verified reports of ADE occurring as a result of COVID-19 vaccines





> Some online mistruths are based on historical information that compares previous viruses and vaccination designs to COVID-19. *It's important to note that scientists deliberately designed their COVID-19 vaccines to prevent ADE from occurring*. Evidence has shown their attempts have been successful. The most recently published data on COVID-19 immune response after vaccination have not indicated that ADE is occurring in immunized populations.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Information on ADE:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Let's see how Delta changes that.  As of July 4th, we had beaten Covid and people were free.  But the war has changed.  So that article may not be valid anymore.

I was actually more interested to know that he didn't recommend it for young people.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-vaccinations-after-u-s-missed-july-4-target



> Today, while the virus hasn’t been vanquished, we know this: It no longer controls our lives, it no longer paralyzes our nation and it’s within our power to make sure it never does so again.



The thought, at least what I gathered, is that Delta is the result of ADE and is why everyone is going batshit crazy again.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 13, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 212452
> 
> Florida at -5% growth (!!!). This is a weekly-average, which suggests that Florida's numbers have peaked. (Knock on wood.)
> 
> US Average is +22%, which is a inflected-down from my last posting.



and florida and the other states will still stay anti-vaxx cause guess what, the huge influx of tax payer money paying "travel nurses" quick shipments of monoclonal antibodies overnight, etc etc saved a lot of the ones who went into the hospitals this round, the first few rounds of covid peaks never were that lucky.

so they will still shrug and say see, we didn't need vaccine after all.

must be nice, living in a world of endless printing presses.  huhuhuhu


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

Or the fact the head of the CDC said 'pregant people'.  If you want to deny the science that says men can't have babies, I don't feel all that comfortable taking any other advice from you.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Or the fact the head of the CDC said 'pregant people'.  If you want to deny the science that says men can't have babies, I don't feel all that comfortable taking any other advice from you.



100% agree.  I lost faith in CDC a long time ago. That's why I get a compilation of sources from multiple countries scientists before I make my decisions.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Let's see how Delta changes that.  As of July 4th, we had beaten Covid and people were free.  But the war has changed.  So that article may not be valid anymore.
> 
> I was actually more interested to know that he didn't recommend it for young people.
> 
> ...



That's not science. That's random speculation. Do your research. If what you're suggesting is true, the UK should be a hotbed of rising infection. Delta originated in India, a mutation from a huge population reservoir.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> That's not science. That's random speculation. Do your research. If what you're suggesting is true, the UK should be a hotbed of rising infection. Delta originated in India, a mutation from a huge population reservoir.


Well, then why is covid receeding (possibly) temporarily in Florida, when there is nothing to stop it?  The end of Florida was just predicted.

Besides, the people telling me what I should do are telling me men can have babies.  People might be better off reading alternative facts


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 13, 2021)

True colours. Coming through.

Florida has nothing to do with this. We're talking about a guy who claims he invented mRNA, who is courting right wing media to spread disinformation.

And I'm sorry, but it is right wing media he's taking to.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Well, then why is covid receeding (possibly) temporarily in Florida, when there is nothing to stop it?  The end of Florida was just predicted.



Early in the week some gave insight to their Covid projection models



> Brilliant said his models on the Covid outbreak in San Francisco and New York predict an *“inverted V-shape epidemic curve.” That implies that infections increase very quickly, but would also decline rapidly*, he explained.
> 
> If the prediction turns out be true, *it means that the delta variant spreads so quickly that “it basically runs out of candidates” to infect,* explained Brilliant.
> 
> *There appears to be a similar pattern in the U.K. and India, where the spread of the delta variant has receded from recent highs.*


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Florida has nothing to do with this. We're talking about a guy who claims he invented mRNA, who is courting right wing media to spread disinformation.


Are saying he didn't actually have papers published that were significant to the development of mRNA? (At least from fact checking In can find)

Here is his paper from 1989 cited in all these papers:



> https://www.pnas.org/content/86/16/6077.short



 Don't know what my true colors.  I said I have no idea how credible they are?  Did you skip that part?

The reason I mentioned Florida, is because what is written 2 months ago is proven to be false or inaccurate today.

Therefore, I simply said lets see what happens because what was said in May may not apply in August.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Early in the week some gave insight to their Covid projection models


Neato!  But Florida has a huge population with < than 60% vax rate.  We have lots of opportunities.  Especially when you read articles the peak to rage on.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 13, 2021)

Basically, it burns itself out. Though I've observed more caution when these variants start to run rampant.

@Xzibit's post makes a promising point. Faster spreading variants without extra lethality might be to our benefit.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

@the54thvoid , I had never heard of him today.  So in the fun of looking up his claims, which I also never said I believed, thanks for stuffing your words in my mouth, some of the information isn't completely a lie.  I don't know who he is, but it was worth taking a quick peak.  I am also not a molecule biologist so I have no idea what the hell any of it means anyway.  Which is why I said I have no idea how credible any of it is and the only remotely credible place I could find it was a reprint on msn.

So, I don't get your hostility.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 13, 2021)

It's not hostility. It's refutation of disinformation sourced from outlets known to mock Covid. Let's bury this and allow the thread to get back on track.


----------



## HTC (Aug 13, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Basically, it burns itself out. Though I've observed more caution when these variants start to run rampant.
> 
> @Xzibit's post makes a promising point. *Faster spreading variants without extra lethality might be to our benefit.*



It doesn't work that way because, while IT MAY not be more deadly, it STILL sends more people to the hospital, thus aggravating the problem and requiring harder restrictions until numbers subside.

Vaccination helps with that, but only if enough people are vaccinated, which ain't the case in far too many places, unfortunately.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> @the54thvoid , I had never heard of him today.  So in the fun of looking up his claims, which I also never said I believed, thanks for stuffing your words in my mouth, some of the information isn't completely a lie.  I don't know who he is, but it was worth taking a quick peak.  I am also not a molecule biologist so I have no idea what the hell any of it means anyway.  Which is why I said I have no idea how credible any of it is and the only remotely credible place I could find it was a reprint on msn.
> 
> So, I don't get your hostility.



If you want credibility on a "WTF".  I'll help you out



> Brilliant said one group of people needs a booster shot “right away” — *those who are 65 years and above, and were fully vaccinated more than six months ago but have a weakened immune system.
> 
> “It is this category of people that we’ve seen create multiple mutations when the virus goes through their body,”* said the epidemiologist.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

HTC said:


> It doesn't work that way because, while IT MAY not be more deadly, it STILL sends more people to the hospital, thus aggravating the problem and requiring harder restrictions until numbers subside.
> 
> Vaccination helps with that, but only if enough people are vaccinated, which ain't the case in far too many places, unfortunately.


Still better than more transmissible and more deadly.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 13, 2021)

Here's more from Larry Brilliant.









						The world is nowhere near the end of the Covid pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant
					

The delta variant of Covid-19 is extremely contagious, noted epidemiologist Larry Brilliant. Relatively few worldwide have gotten the coronavirus vaccine.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> It's refutation of disinformation sourced from outlets known to mock Covid.


I'd hate for people to mock science.  Pregnant people the world over would be upset.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Or the fact the head of the CDC said 'pregant people'.  If you want to deny the science that says men can't have babies, I don't feel all that comfortable taking any other advice from you.


There are interex individuals that can bear offspring (as in, get pregnant) I believe.
No, not from themselves.

Point being the distinction is not without rationale.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Neato!  But Florida has a huge population with < than 60% vax rate.  We have lots of opportunities.  Especially when you read articles the peak to rage on.



But >40% vax rate, so Florida, for as awful as its doing... is still better than its neighbors.

I'm not exactly surprised that Florida is the first to recover from this summer-surge.






Its not as blue as other areas, but all those vaccinations in Florida are helping them out compared to Georgia or Arkansas.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

My favorite part of that graph is Texas.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 13, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> My favorite part of that graph is Texas.


The land of "No Data, please send us a hospital ship though?"


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 13, 2021)

Hi,
In Cali they were saying the sand was evil so stay away from the beach lol


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 13, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> In Cali they were saying the sand was evil so stay away from the beach lol



Your not allow to bring up Californias mass contribution to the "hesitancy" movement pre-Covid unless you leave hollywood and the celebrity crowd out of it.  Shhhhh


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 13, 2021)

Hi,
Yeah very low quality lol


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 13, 2021)

R-T-B said:
			
		

> The land of "No Data, please send us a hospital ship though?"


There is no way to count it.  We don't even know how many people are in Texas now.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 13, 2021)

*I'll ask that people post what has been asked of, i.e. science and data*. Not sniping and opinion. As has been said on many ocassions, that's for the lounge.

If you're too lazy to source your data, check your info, or otherwise make opinionated comments, go to the lounge thread where all but fringe conspiracy theory is welcome. If you can't abide to that directive, you will be reply-banned from the data thread.

Thank you.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 14, 2021)

Canada announces vaccine mandate for air travel
					

Canada will require most commercial passengers traveling by air, rail or large ship to be fully vaccinated by fall.




					www.cnn.com
				




The problem with this kind of mandate, is it's just to slow. This should have been a requirement eight months ago for all airlines and all governments. IMA chief and United Nations should have made it happen. If you don't want vaccine fine, but you are not flying hombre.

Case study: United Kingdom and Delta Variant.  Quarantine simply doesn't work all the time, Delta got through, India flights should have been shut off way way before the UK actually did shut it off.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get a variant that destroys the vaccine sometime after Fall, governments just moving to slow on all of it.  lol  I guess governments like going bankrupt, neat.


----------



## xkm1948 (Aug 14, 2021)

A good credible source summerizing currently known information, answering your questions about Delta variant of CoVID-19











Source for the video, notice quite a few are publication pre-prints without peer review, so credibility remains to be checked after peer review process. I mainly took the scientific journals instead of news outlets.









						COVID vaccine boosters: the most important questions
					

Concerns over waning immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants have convinced some countries to deploy extra vaccine doses — but it’s not clear to scientists whether most people need them.




					www.nature.com
				












						WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 4 August 2021
					






					www.who.int
				









						COVID-19 Virtual Press conference transcript - 25 June 2021
					

TJ	Tarik Jasarevic TAG	Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus TF	Amb Toni Frisch MS	Dr Mariângela Simão SS	Dr Soumya Swaminathan  MR	Dr Michael Ryan BA	Dr Bruce Aylward MK	Dr Maria Van Kerkhove PP	Priti Patnaik BG	Belisa Godinho WS	Will Stone IF	Imogen Foulkes DK	Dawn Kopecki RM	Robin Millard PA	Paulina...




					www.who.int
				






			https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/373/bmj.n1631.full.pdf
		










						Infectivity and immune escape of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest Lambda
					

Background The newly described SARS-CoV-2 lineage C.37 was recently classified as a variant of interest by the WHO (Lambda variant) based on its high circulation rates in South American countries and the presence of critical mutations in the spike protein. The impact of such mutations in...




					www.medrxiv.org
				












						Shedding of Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Despite Vaccination when the Delta Variant is Prevalent - Wisconsin, July 2021
					

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and its sublineages (B.1.617.2, AY.1, AY.2, AY.3; [[1][1]]) can cause high viral loads, are highly transmissible, and contain mutations that confer partial immune escape [[2][2],[3][3]]. Using PCR threshold cycle (Ct) data from a single large contract laboratory, we...




					www.medrxiv.org
				












						How the Delta variant achieves its ultrafast spread
					

Viral load is roughly 1,000 times higher in people infected with the Delta variant than those infected with the original coronavirus strain, according to a study in China.




					www.nature.com
				












						How Dangerous Is the Delta Variant (B.1.617.2)? | ASM.org
					

Delta has quickly become the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in over a dozen countries around the world. How contagious and deadly is this variant? Will vaccines remain protective against Delta?




					asm.org
				












						Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant
					

We report the first local transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of the quarantined subjects indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR+...




					www.medrxiv.org
				












						Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant
					

We report the first local transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of the quarantined subjects indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR+...




					www.medrxiv.org
				









						SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 Delta variant emergence and vaccine breakthrough
					

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant was first identified in the state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and has spread throughout India, displacing the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant and other pre-existing lineages. Mathematical modelling indicates that the growth advantage is most likely explained by a ...




					www.researchsquare.com
				






For Science related news, I highly recommend you bookmark *Nature, American Society for Microbiology and Science Magazine*. Their news section have at least the same scientific trained researchers filter out false information.

Nature








						Nature
					

Nature is the foremost international weekly scientific journal in the world and is the flagship journal for Nature Portfolio. It publishes the finest ...




					www.nature.com
				




Science Magazine





						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org
				




American Society of Microbiology








						American Society for Microbiology
					

The American Society for Microbiology (ASM) is the oldest and largest single life science membership organization in the world. Membership has grown from 59 scientists in 1899 to more than 39,000 members today, with more than one third located outside the United States. The members represent 26...




					asm.org


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 14, 2021)

From: Israel Ministry Of Health

*Hebrew translation - Corona infections among fully vaccinated


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 14, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> A good credible source summerizing currently known information, answering your questions about Delta variant of CoVID-19
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Are you sure you want me to bookmark nature.com? I linked an article on here that had like 40 smaller studies spread out all over the world, showing previous covid + 1 shot of pfizer was a slam dunk across the board, and verified over and over and over at other labs around the world. Yet, everyone attacked me when I said based on that science I would not get my second shot in the recommended time frame the CDC asks me to. Nature thinks CDC isn't a God, and so do I.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 14, 2021)

It's a science journal man.  They publish things that may or may not be peer reviewed yet.  Linking to it is not a gurantee that the study is the endall.  That's not how science works.  You don't search your own facts out until you find them either, which honestly, seems to be what you are doing a lot of the time.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 14, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It's a science journal man.  They publish things that may or may not be peer reviewed yet.  Linking to it is not a gurantee that the study is the endall.  That's not how science works.  You don't search your own facts out until you find them either, which honestly, seems to be what you are doing a lot of the time.



I think he had an issue with others not being respectful of his viewpoint and how he came to it while providing said material.  

A lot of the forums rules have been overlooked due to the nature of this discussion and how society around the world is at the moment. Its been acceptable to shame be hateful to those that don't share your viewpoint. Certain people even get right out demeaning towards others they don't see eye to eye with.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 14, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I think he had an issue with others not being respectful of his viewpoint


The fact is none of us are really qualified to provide viewpoints on this.  I for one defer to the general health authorities in hopes that their doctors know more than I can reason out with a google search.

It's a stats thread and not an advice thread for a reason, beside that.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 14, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> The fact is none of us are really qualified to provide viewpoints on this.  I for one defer to the general health authorities in hopes that their doctors know more than I can reason out with a google search.
> 
> It's a stats thread for a reason, beside that.



Just because one is not qualified or that its a stats thread doesn't excuse how one behaves towards others.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 14, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Just because one is not qualified or that its a stats thread doesn't excuse how one behaves towards others.


I didn't say it did.  However he has a tendency to jump to conclusions.  That is my sole and only point.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 14, 2021)

@lynx29

This study from March (study ran from Dec 20-Feb 21) may be the one you mentioned?









						New study finds strong immune response following COVID-19 vaccination
					

Study led by Sheffield and Oxford Universities finds that 99% of people have robust immune response against COVID-19 after one dose of Pfizer vaccine.




					www.gov.uk
				






> Study shows people who have previously had COVID-19 generate stronger T cell and antibody responses following one dose of the Pfizer vaccine



In other words, prior infection plus one dose was better than a single dose, however:



> Among individuals who had not had COVID-19 in the past and had received 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, T cell response was as strong as people who had had previous COVID-19 infection and one vaccine dose.



Two Pfizer doses gave as strong a T-cell response as infection plus one jab. I think the reason it's not officially promoted is due to uncertainties about immunity length as others have said.


------


And here is a summary of Scotland's Covid stats (a sample of the UK as a whole). Numbers are the highest peak of each surges 7-day rolling average. The yellow line marks Delta becoming the predominant variant. It also serves to show the effect vaccinations have had on reducing hospitalisations, ICU cases, and deaths. As @Xzibit rightly mentions in his posts, the vaccinations haven't stopped the surge of cases. But, to quote the linked paper above (UK Gov statement of vaccine effectiveness):



> *An effective vaccine is one that that saves lives and reduces hospitalisations.*


----------



## HTC (Aug 14, 2021)

I just collected a few statistics of TWO periods of 23 days, starting the day after the peak of the 1st wave and starting the day after the peak of this 4th wave to see the impact the vaccination has had, thus far: keep in mind that the 1st wave had the original variant while this 4th wave has the delta variant.

From April 11th 2020 until May 3rd 2020:

- 9810 new cases in total
- 573 fatalities in total
- 1098 daily hospitalized, on average
- 196 daily ICU, on average

From July 22nd 2021 until August 13th 2021:

- 58925 new cases in total
- 289 fatalities in total
- 876 daily hospitalized, on average
- 182 daily ICU, on average

*6 times more new cases but 50% fewer fatalities, 20% fewer hospitalized on average and 7% fewer in ICU on average.*

EDIT

Damn math mistakes ...


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 14, 2021)

For those that thinks getting vaccinated is enough.








						Taiwan records 40 imported COVID cases infected after being vaccinated  | Taiwan News | 2021-08-14 17:44:00
					

12 of the cases had received two shots, according to Central Epidemic Command Center | 2021-08-14 17:44:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 14, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> For those that thinks getting vaccinated is enough.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think it's as much about who we let in to our countries, it's fairly common knowledge that most of the vaccines whilst stopping transmission in up to around 70% of people (may vary dependant on variant) they won't stop it all which is why sometimes I fail to see the benefit v risk in opening borders to countries with high infection rates for people double jabbed, apart from economic reasons of course.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 14, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> I think it's as much about who we let in to our countries, it's fairly common knowledge that most of the vaccines whilst stopping transmission in up to around 70% of people (may vary dependant on variant) they won't stop it all which is why sometimes I fail to see the benefit v risk in opening borders to countries with high infection rates for people double jabbed, apart from economic reasons of course.


Most of the people coming in to Taiwan tends to be returning citizens, most of them from the US.
Take that as you want.








						Taiwan reports 4 local COVID cases, 14 imported infections | Taiwan News | 2021-08-13 14:26:00
					

Taiwan reports 2 deaths, bringing total death toll to 819 | 2021-08-13 14:26:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## Jacky_BEL (Aug 14, 2021)

Our fantastic government in Belgium decided to lift all inbound travel restrictions, since "95% of covid-19 cases in Belgium are now of the delta-variant".

My reaction: so great, this means that we will soon be welcoming the columbian, gamma or whatever variant.
I only hope it will not be more destructive than the variants we have already experienced.
I really don't understand why travel restrictions are not kept in place, especially intercontinental travel.


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## TheLostSwede (Aug 14, 2021)

Jacky_BEL said:


> Our fantastic government in Belgium decided to lift all inbound travel restrictions, since "95% of covid-19 cases in Belgium are now of the delta-variant".
> 
> My reaction: so great, this means that we will soon be welcoming the columbian, gamma or whatever variant.
> I only hope it will not be more destructive than the variants we have already experienced.
> I really don't understand why travel restrictions are not kept in place, especially intercontinental travel.


Because some people are still stuck abroad and want to travel home?
Then again, if you're Australian, you're not welcome home anyhow and you'll have to pay 10x the normal price if you're lucky enough to get a seat on a plane...

But yes, there's really no need for people to go on holiday abroad, yet that seems to be what most travel is these days.


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## Space Lynx (Aug 14, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Because some people are still stuck abroad and want to travel home?
> Then again, if you're Australian, you're not welcome home anyhow and you'll have to pay 10x the normal price if you're lucky enough to get a seat on a plane...
> 
> But yes, there's really no need for people to go on holiday abroad, yet that seems to be what most travel is these days.



we went back to normalcy too soon I agree, normalcy at a local level could have been achieved by now, if we had stopped the air travel in full. human hubris knows no bounds.



the54thvoid said:


> @lynx29
> 
> This study from March (study ran from Dec 20-Feb 21) may be the one you mentioned?
> 
> ...




previous covid + 1 shot of pfizer - i recall one study showing the exact numbers, basically after two shots of pfizer and no covid you get anywhere from 6k to 15k antibodies per ml of blood. but with previous covid plus 1 shot of pfizer - you get about double the amount, sometimes above 40k even.  

and no that is not the study i read, there are about 50+ small studies all over the world, and they all verify each other. I feel safe with one shot. I will be getting my second shot in late september possibly late october, I have not decided yet. and it will act as my booster shot just in time for the inevitable winter surge (especially since my area is back in school now full swing and doesn't wear masks in school)


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## Caring1 (Aug 15, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Because some people are still stuck abroad and want to travel home?
> Then again, if you're Australian, you're not welcome home anyhow and you'll have to pay 10x the normal price if you're lucky enough to get a seat on a plane...


IMO most "Australians" stuck overseas are dual nationals that live and work overseas then choose to "return" to Australia as it is seen as safer than other Covid infected countries.
Their country of origin should be taken into consideration for return flights and dual citizenship renounced.
Australia was taking 7 flights a week from India at the peak of Covid initially, mainly Indian citizens with an Australian passport also, this has been reduced to 3 flights a week.
This is how the Delta variant entered the country.


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## HTC (Aug 15, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 45367 active cases --- 434 more --- 62 more per day
- 940406 recovered --- 15839 more --- 2263 more per day
- 17562 fatalities --- 95 more --- 14 more per day
- 1003335 confirmed infected --- 16368 more --- 2338 more per day

- 16112555 tests taken --- 396588 more --- 66098 more per day but was last updated August 13th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 12912040 vaccinated --- 638129 more --- last updated last yesterday but that corresponds to 7379028 1st doses + 5533012 2nd doses
- 744 hospitalized --- *105 less --- 15 less per day*
- 157 in ICU --- *27 less --- 4 less per day*

Week fatalities decreased slightly VS last week. The R number *increased* a bit, with it now being 0.95 on average and i'm concerned it may reach 1.0 soon. Roughly 73.4% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 54.8% are fully vaccinated.

New daily cases increased slightly VS last week and Portugal has crossed the 1M cases milestone this Saturday thus becoming the 33rd country to have 1M+ cases. Both hospitalized and ICU numbers have dropped again VS last week.

I thought this was going to happen last week but i was mistaken: Portugal has started to mass vaccinate those aged 16 to 17 in preparation for school: of the roughly 210K people within this age bracket, 180K scheduled their vaccination for this weekend, with 102K having been vaccinated yesterday alone.

Portugal's Health Department (DGS) gave the go ahead for kids aged 12 to 15 (through their parents, obviously) to begin scheduling their vaccination and about 40% of those in this age bracket have done so already: they'll be vaccinated either next weekend or the weekend after that, if all goes according to plan.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 17, 2021)

Houston man shot 6 times, a week later still waiting for surgery at hospital overwhelmed by COVID-19
					

EXCLUSIVE: A Houston man continues to wait for surgery at Ben Taub Hospital roughly a week after getting shot six times.




					www.fox26houston.com
				






> Houston man shot 6 times last week still waiting for surgery at hospital overwhelmed by COVID-19



This is the shit that happens when your hospital system gets overwhelmed.



> According to a spokesperson from the Harris Health System, Ben Taub Hospital is currently operating with an ICU at 98% capacity. We’re told 33% of those patients are COVID-related.





> "In response to the increase in COVID-19 cases overwhelming the hospitals of Harris Health System, our medical experts review all surgical cases throughout the day to determine the acuity level and patient’s overall condition," said Amanda Callaway from the Harris Health System. "Due to strained resources, surgical patients are being prioritized based on several factors, which unfortunately may result in a delay of non-emergent surgical procedures. Harris Health and its medical partners are working diligently to provide the best possible care during these difficult times."


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## Space Lynx (Aug 17, 2021)

US expected to recommend vaccine boosters for all Americans amid alarming case surge: Live COVID-19 updates
					

Biden administration health officials are expected to recommend booster COVID-19 shots for all Americans, regardless of age. The latest COVID news.



					www.usatoday.com
				




ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES BOYS AND GIRLS!!! THIRD JAB INCOMING!  3 jabs a year! get used to it boys!


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## Ahhzz (Aug 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> US expected to recommend vaccine boosters for all Americans amid alarming case surge: Live COVID-19 updates
> 
> 
> Biden administration health officials are expected to recommend booster COVID-19 shots for all Americans, regardless of age. The latest COVID news.
> ...


It's too bad people wouldn't take the vaccine because some YouTube/General MD/Politician told them they didn't need it for whatever reason.... Maybe we could have beaten Delta to the punch. Maybe not, but we'll never know, because people.


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## xkm1948 (Aug 17, 2021)

Amazing scientific animation explaining the mechanism of action of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine


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## Space Lynx (Aug 17, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> It's too bad people wouldn't take the vaccine because some YouTube/General MD/Politician told them they didn't need it for whatever reason.... Maybe we could have beaten Delta to the punch. Maybe not, but we'll never know, because people.



Your logic on this is wrong. Delta = came from India, they didn't have chance to get the vaccine fast enough anyway, and then combine that with UK being slow to close their borders to India even when they knew Delta was on fire in India. Combine all of that with Delta breaking the vaccine and allowing it to be caught/transmitted even in fully vaccinated and it was game over, regardless or not whether other people in USA had access to vaccine or not. If all of India had access to the vaccine before Delta emerged, your statement would be true.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Your logic on this is wrong. Delta = came from India, they didn't have chance to get the vaccine fast enough anyway, and then combine that with UK being slow to close their borders to India even when they knew Delta was on fire in India. Combine all of that with Delta breaking the vaccine and allowing it to be caught/transmitted even in fully vaccinated and it was game over, regardless or not whether other people in USA had access to vaccine or not. If all of India had access to the vaccine before Delta emerged, your statement would be true.



California has seen a breakout number of cases of Delta strain, despite being highly vaccinated (though most of the breakout cases are in LA / San Bernardino / southern areas, where vaccinations are lower).

Still, California is doing better than Texas, Florida, or Arkansas. Vaccines slow down the spread of Delta dramatically. That poor soul in the Houston hospital with 6 gunshot wounds probably would have had his surgery by now if it weren't for the huge unvaccinated swaths in Texas.

---------

I ran the calculations in the other thread. Given the efficacy of the vaccines and the transmission rate of Delta, we need 104% of the population (or more) vaccinated for herd immunity to kick in vs Delta. So herd immunity isn't really possible anymore. 

Nonetheless, Delta will spread faster in unvaccinated regions and risk overwhelming hospitals. The job now is to vaccinate to reduce the hospitalizations / deaths (90% reduction in hospitalization, 98% reduction in deaths in the vaccinated pool of people)... and probably wait for the booster shots that could bring us back towards herd immunity.


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## Space Lynx (Aug 17, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Amazing scientific animation explaining the mechanism of action of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine



What are the possibilities that the enzymes needed to alter our human DNA our found in certain foods and other medicines? Sure, those enzymes are not in the mRNA vaccines, as the video states, but what if the timing of someone taking a specific medicine, or a certain probiotic, etc etc endless variables, creates the right concoction of enzymes around sme time that person got the mRNA jab? Asking from a mere science curious perspective more than anything.



dragontamer5788 said:


> California has seen a breakout number of cases of Delta strain, despite being highly vaccinated (though most of the breakout cases are in LA / San Bernardino / southern areas, where vaccinations are lower).
> 
> Still, California is doing better than Texas, Florida, or Arkansas. Vaccines slow down the spread of Delta dramatically. That poor soul in the Houston hospital with 6 gunshot wounds probably would have had his surgery by now if it weren't for the huge unvaccinated swaths in Texas.



That wasn't what Ahzz was trying to make a point of, Ahzz was saying it would not even be here, you are taking his proposal and my response out of context. I'm well aware the vaccine helps.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> What are the possibilities that the enzymes needed to alter our human DNA our found in certain foods and other medicines? Sure, those enzymes are not in the mRNA vaccines, as the video states, but what if the timing of someone taking a specific medicine, or a certain probiotic, etc etc endless variables, creates the right concoction of enzymes around sme time that person got the mRNA jab? Asking from a mere science curious perspective more than anything.



Generally speaking, our DNA doesn't want to be changed. It does get changed over time (see cancer), but the entire design of DNA is to make it difficult to change. And even then, our immune system is constantly checking on our own cells (and killing cells that have too much DNA damage). This part of our immune system is called "natural killer cells", and they also roam around looking for cells taken over by a virus.

The things that do manage to change our DNA are called carcinogens. There's plenty of them: Smoking, various drugs, Asbestos, UV rays from the sun (UV-A, UV-B), etc. etc. The environment we live in has a large number of carcinogens, but our body still fights off cancer in most cases. (I'm not saying you should start making you next house out of Asbestos or anything, but yeah, our bodies do have some natural defenses against cancer)

DNA doesn't sit in one central place. Every cell in our body has its own copy of DNA relevant for the work it does. To really damage the body, you need to create a cancer, a large enough change to DNA to so many cells such that those cells consume resources and multiply exponentially. If you do "simple everyday DNA damage", our immune system will selectively kill those damaged cells before they take over our body.

The difference with that and end-stage cancer cells is that end-stage cancer cells have reproduced so much that our body's immune system has no hope of killing off the cancer cells anymore. When cancer gets to this point, we hope that we can just go in with a scalpel (or radiation) and have the doctor kill off the cancer through brute force, but that only works if the cancer remains isolated in one spot. If the cancer cells / DNA damage overtakes the body, then there's not much we can do at that point.

-------------

IIRC, even things as simple as a banana can be a carcinogen. There's a decent amount of radiation coming out of that potassium that's all over the banana, and that radiation can do DNA damage. But the chances of the low-radiation amounts coming off of bananas actually causing a lasting cancer are miniscule to none (its not like Chernobyl lol) . So if I were to guess, everything is a carcinogen. The question is if someone crosses the threshold of "enough of a carcinogen" or "enough DNA damage" to actually cause a problem.


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## Space Lynx (Aug 17, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Generally speaking, our DNA doesn't want to be changed. It does get changed over time (see cancer), but the entire design of DNA is to make it difficult to change. And even then, our immune system is constantly checking on our own cells (and killing cells that have too much DNA damage). This part of our immune system is called "natural killer cells", and they also roam around looking for cells taken over by a virus.
> 
> The things that do manage to change our DNA are called carcinogens. There's plenty of them: Smoking, various drugs, Asbestos, UV rays from the sun (UV-A, UV-B), etc. etc. The environment we live in has a large number of carcinogens, but our body still fights off cancer in most cases. (I'm not saying you should start making you next house out of Asbestos or anything, but yeah, our bodies do have some natural defenses against cancer)
> 
> ...



I appreciate that post, but again it has nothing to do with new mRNA tech question I asked specifically about.  xkm is more the expert in this field, so I am waiting for his response.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I appreciate that post, but again it has nothing to do with new mRNA tech question I asked specifically about.  xkm is more the expert in this field, so I am waiting for his response.



My overall point is that on an absolute scale, a *lot* of things (ex: bananas) could cause "DNA damage" (radiation coming off of the potassium). Its just that our bodies can fight off these low-levels of radiation without issue.

So the real question should be: does XYZ cause enough damage such that it overwhelms our body ? (aka: causes an appreciable and measurable increase in risk)

---------

In any case, the mRNA itself probably can't change DNA. I'd be more worried about like, every other ingredient and the rest of the supply chain (there's a lot of things that go into the vaccine), but that's why we have tests, regulations, and tightly controlled supply chains.


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## Space Lynx (Aug 17, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> My overall point is that on an absolute scale, a *lot* of things (ex: bananas) could cause "DNA damage" (radiation coming off of the potassium). Its just that our bodies can fight off these low-levels of radiation without issue.
> 
> So the real question should be: does XYZ cause enough damage such that it overwhelms our body ? (aka: causes an appreciable and measurable increase in risk)
> 
> ...



My ancestors have been eating bananas for 5 million years. Everything is fine. You have been injecting mRNA into people for ten years, small handful of studies over that ten years, until now large scale rollout). You can't compare apples to oranges, I get your point, but I disagree with it.

"probably can't change DNA" you went from mRNA can't change DNA, to probably... that's what the CDC does when it adds warning labels for myocardia 6 months after release, while simultaneously saying the previous 6 months "no vaccine in history shows symptoms after its first few months, that's how we know it's safe"

Look, I got my first shot of Pfizer, I plan to get my second shot. Just saying... be careful with your logic and wording sometimes.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> "probably can't change DNA" you went from mRNA can't change DNA, to probably...



mRNA is the literal "instruction set", the "assembly code" so to speak of our cells. It is used to create the specific proteins and structures in our body.

"Can mRNA in general, change DNA?" Well, probably it can. But "can the mRNA COVID19 vaccines, change DNA ??" Well, no, the mRNA formulations and protein structures they make are *NOT* going to change your DNA.

Given what we know about the "code" that Pfizer / Moderna made for its vaccines, we know that they're not designed to change the DNA of your body. If that's your specific question. A future mRNA technology might try to do that (I don't know why they'd try, but in the abstract, mRNA technology seems to be able to cause our cells to do all sorts of crazy things that we want). You're asking very different questions this time than the last time.

---------

The two mRNA vaccine (from Pfizer and Moderna) are just the starting point. They're talking about all sorts of weird applications of this technology: such as building nanomachines and other microstructures. I can't assure you the safety of all the future applications of mRNA. There will probably be a crazy scientist who will do something stupid and dangerous. But given what I know about the mRNA vaccines made last year for COVID19: they're conservative and relatively simple designs.

The "design" of the mRNA vaccines (both for Pfizer and Moderna's formulas) is to enter our body, create fake COVID19 spike proteins, and then disappear. A very simple "code" or "instructions" for our body to follow. Because the vaccine disappears within just a few days after each injection, it seems very unlikely that it'd be able to cause any long-term effects beyond 6-months.


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## Space Lynx (Aug 17, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> mRNA is the literal "instruction set", the "assembly code" so to speak of our cells. It is used to create the specific proteins and structures in our body.
> 
> "Can mRNA in general, change DNA?" Well, probably it can. But "can the mRNA COVID19 vaccines, change DNA ??" Well, no, the mRNA formulations and protein structures they make are *NOT* going to change your DNA.
> 
> ...



I'm not asking a different question at all. My question to xkm is still the same. Can other variables from medicines to food, taken at the same time of the current mRNA vaccines, penetrate human DNA in unexpected ways.

You are the one taking my questions out of context.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm not asking a different question at all. My question to xkm is still the same. Can other variables from medicines to food, taken at the same time of the current mRNA vaccines, penetrate human DNA in unexpected ways.
> 
> You are the one taking my questions out of context.



My answer to that remains the same.

The mRNA wouldn't be doing the DNA damage, if that's your concern. But there's plenty of other stuff in that vaccine aside from mRNA, and from what I know about weird medical shit is that crazy things combine in weird ways... and carcinogens are super common.

I very well could imagine some knock on effects having the same amount of "DNA-damage" as your typical banana. That's why I'm talking about bananas earlier. Hell, the burned part from your summer barbeque is probably doing "DNA-damage" in the abstract. The 2nd hand smoke from your friend's cigar is absolutely causing "DNA-damage". So you're going to have to be more specific about what "level" of DNA damage is concerning to you.

---------

In any case, its a Russet's Teapot scenario. No such damage has been measured yet, and given how the mRNA vaccines operate, it seems highly unlikely that it can effect us over the long term. We have an absence of evidence, and that's probably the best we're going to get on this discussion.


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## HTC (Aug 17, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I ran the calculations in the other thread. *Given the efficacy of the vaccines and the transmission rate of Delta, we need 104% of the population (or more) vaccinated for herd immunity to kick in vs Delta.* So herd immunity isn't really possible anymore.
> 
> Nonetheless, Delta will spread faster in unvaccinated regions and risk overwhelming hospitals. The job now is to vaccinate to reduce the hospitalizations / deaths (90% reduction in hospitalization, 98% reduction in deaths in the vaccinated pool of people)... and probably wait for the booster shots that could bring us back towards herd immunity.



I saw your other post about this and something doesn't seem right: measles R number is much higher than even Delta COVID but it's vaccine works wonderfully, so how did you arrive @ that 104% population number?


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 18, 2021)

HTC said:


> I saw your other post about this and something doesn't seem right: measles R number is much higher than even Delta COVID but it's vaccine works wonderfully, so how did you arrive @ that 104% population number?



I assumed that the vaccine is only 80% effective at preventing transmission. I pulled that number out of my ass by the way, but in the absence of better data, pulling numbers out of my ass is better than nothing. If anyone has a better estimate for how many transmissions the vaccines prevent, I'm all ears.

Assuming 80% transmission efficacy and an R0 of 6, we end up with 104% needing to be vaccinated. (Aka: 104% * .8 == 83% protection. 1/(1-83%) == 6.).

If the vaccine is worse than 80% effective (and I believe it is, unfortunately), that only pushes the number beyond 104% and even higher. Further proving my point that herd immunity is likely not available with today's vaccines with today's variant (Delta). I recall seeing numbers in the 60%-range from some studies. Delta definitely reduced the efficacy of vaccines.

Note: R0 of 6 is on the low end of Delta's estimated R0. It could be anywhere from 6 to 10 based off of current estimates. So herd immunity is well into the realm of impossible. Redoing the numbers with R0 of 10 and 60% efficacy means we need to vaccinate 150% of the population. But that doesn't change much does it? 150% and 104% are both impossible numbers to hit.

-----------

There's 3 measurements of vaccine efficacy:

* Transmission efficacy -- Prevention of the virus from propagating across the public

* Hospitalization efficacy -- Prevention of hospitalizations

* Death efficacy -- Prevention of death

For COVID19 and Alpha, all 3 of these were good numbers. But for Delta, transmission efficacy was hampered severely (but hospitalization efficacy / death efficacy are still very good). This means that, under our current set of tools, Delta-variant will spread throughout the whole population, even the vaccinated portions of our population. The mission has therefore changed, we're aiming at stopping hospitalizations and deaths now.

EDIT: Measles's vaccine is much more effective than COVID19's vaccine in regards to transmission... because the Delta variant has changed the efficacy numbers.


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## Xzibit (Aug 18, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I assumed that the vaccine is only 80% effective at preventing transmission. *I pulled that number out of my ass by the way, but in the absence of better data, pulling numbers out of my ass is better than nothing*. If anyone has a better estimate for how many transmissions the vaccines prevent, I'm all ears.


Thats the part i'm laughing at.
-
Vaccine efficacy in the trial was on cases split.
-
Just to add its difficult also due to there being almost no information on their behavior outside of getting periodic checks. Did they go about their usual business or did they isolate.  The exposure potential would be a significant thing.

The drop offs that are being measure now would never have been observed in the phase 3 trial time period of 2months after the 2nd dose end point.


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 18, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Thats the part i'm laughing at.



I realize I was editing my post up there a lot, so I was giving you the benefit of the doubt there.

I initially wanted to keep it short though, but I guess talking through my entire thought process is a bit better for discussion.


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## LFaWolf (Aug 18, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> "Can mRNA in general, change DNA?" Well, probably it can. But "can the mRNA COVID19 vaccines, change DNA ??" Well, no, the mRNA formulations and protein structures they make are *NOT* going to change your DNA.



https://www.chop.edu/centers-progra...r/video/can-mrna-vaccines-alter-a-persons-dna
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/will-mrna-vaccine-alter-my-dna
https://theconversation.com/can-the-pfizer-or-moderna-mrna-vaccines-affect-my-genetic-code-162590


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## Space Lynx (Aug 18, 2021)

7 Vaccinated Florida Patients Die of COVID
					

"We explain when I give the vaccine, 'Look, this is not 100 percent, but in life, you have to give yourself the best possible odds," Patricia Seemann said.




					www.newsweek.com
				




7 more died this week fully vaccinated, and that 36 yr old flight attendant from vegas died last week, fully vaccinated.

probably a lot not being reported too. one thing I noticed is that no one is sayin what vaccine these fully vaccinated people got. I wouldn't be surprised if 90% of them were johnson and johnson single shot, which has proven to pretty much be a flop compared to mRNA.

I read about a guy two weeks ago, had 0 antibodies for covid even though he got the jnj shot just two months before the antibody test. lol sad.

I find it suspicious these new articles are not saying which vaccine these people dying got. gee whiz golly folks, who to trust these days!


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 18, 2021)

Alabama has ‘negative’ ICU beds available
					

“We’ve never been here before. We are in truly now in uncharted territory in terms of our ICU bed capacity,” said Alabama Hospital Association President Dr. Don Williamson.




					www.wsfa.com
				






> “There were 1,568 patients today who need ICU beds, and there are only 1,557 designated ICU beds in the state today,” Williamson said.* “*In the Montgomery area, we have eight more patients who are getting ICU care than we have designated ICU beds here.”



Out of beds in Alabama.



lynx29 said:


> I find it suspicious these new articles are not saying which vaccine these people dying got. gee whiz golly folks, who to trust these days!



If they don't have that information, why would they report on it? Sometimes, people just don't have information to report, so its left out.









						Mayo Clinic: COVID Breakthrough Risk May Be Much Lower With Moderna Than Pfizer
					

The pre-print study suggested the Pfizer vaccine was 34 points less effective in preventing infection last month, at least in one state, NBC New York reports.




					www.cnbc.com
				




Huh. Maybe that 100 ug x2 dose (Moderna) was in fact a big advantage over the 30ug x2 dose (Pfizer). I was lamenting a months ago about how Moderna is injecting so much vaccine, possibly unnecessarily (literally 3x more vaccine than Pfizer)... but maybe there's a benefit to it after all.

Initially, it didn't seem like Moderna had any advantages over Pfizer. But now that Delta has changed everything, all sorts of questions are being brought up about vaccines again.

EDIT: Its a preprint study, non-reviewed. Etc. etc. Not even "scientific evidence" yet, the medical community should review it through the publication process to determine if the study was done correctly. Still, if the study turns out to have been done correctly with valid results (and IIRC, Mayo Clinic has pretty good reputation on these issues), then that's a pretty interesting factoid IMO.

J'attends et attends et attends jusqu'à maintenant.
rien n'est en cours


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## Tatty_One (Aug 18, 2021)

I can only reiterate, despite what is or is not showing in the USA is that an efficacy rating against Delta in the UK remains pretty strong in real world terms of hospitalisations and fatalities, with similar levels of infection to what we have now back on the 29th January there were around 36k people hospitalised, today there are 6.3k, back then the daily average fatality rate was 1,006, today is 93, let's not forget that in January Delta hardly existed in the UK, it now accounts for 99.3% of all infections, in addition to that we were 3 weeks into a lockdown back at the end of January, we pretty much have no restrictions or mandates at all now.

To mitigate the above, I do appreciate that on the 29th January we were a couple of weeks past the peak of the wave so statistically there is likely to be continuing fallout from the peak that has skewed the figures some. @lynx29 unless the vaccine has 100% efficacy against Delta of course there will be vaccinated fatalities, so equally as newsworthy might be how many unvaccinated died from Delta?


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## dragontamer5788 (Aug 18, 2021)

Looks like I was overly optimistic about Florida. Last week, Florida had a -4% or so change week-over-week, but today that week-over-week average is +23%. That being said: we're seeing a decline in Louisiana / Arkansas now, but... given how short lived Florida's "decline" was, I'm going to wait another week or two before declaring a peak again.

The overall US average has declined from the low 20%s to the upper teens. So the surge continues across the board, but I still believe we're in an "inflected down" environment, and that the peak is near.

-----

Remember that case# *lead* hospitalizations and deaths. This means that without a doubt, hospitalizations will continue to increase over the next 2 or 3 weeks (even if all of these growths drop down to 0% tomorrow and stay there). I expect that many of these states will have full hospitals as schools reopen in September.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 18, 2021)

Deaths are clearly up in the worst states (Louisiana, Mississippi). But by the time we get to #10 or so (Oklahoma / Wyoming), deaths aren't really climbing too much yet (hard to see any big change in the graph). Overall however, deaths are +31% across the country from last week.

Vaccination rates are all above 30% across the country (even in the most ass-backwards states), but at the county level it could be lower than 30% vaccinated in some areas. Though that number seems low, I'm hopeful that the "most in need of vaccination" (aka: the oldest and/or obese / diabetic / otherwise sick) got the vaccine to protect themselves. We all know its the younger crowd that is largely refusing the free vaccinations.

Still though: the death rate in places like Louisiana are already worse than they've ever been before, and the case# continue to go up. This July / August surge is going to be the worst-ever part of the pandemic thus far for a fair number of states.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 18, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 213154
> 
> Deaths are clearly up in the worst states (Louisiana, Mississippi). But by the time we get to #10 or so (Oklahoma / Wyoming), deaths aren't really climbing too much yet (hard to see any big change in the graph). Overall however, deaths are +31% across the country from last week.
> 
> ...



I understand percentages are important, but the actual number of deaths should also be reported in charts like these, for perspective.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I understand percentages are important, but the actual number of deaths should also be reported in charts like these, for perspective.



Ask and you shall receive. You just need to click a few buttons on the WashPo website.





Honestly... I'm more interested in the %change of deaths, since that is kind of forward looking. When death counts are *changing*, that's the news event. More deaths than last week vs less deaths than last week is what I'm mostly looking at.

California / Texas / Florida have the most citizens. So its inevitable for them to be on the top-end of the chart. Dividing by the population to get a rate seems more accurate to me instinctively. But I can see why some would want to see the raw death count without population being factored in.

I also live in a relatively low population state. So my state's numbers will never really show up on the chart. I feel like adjusting for population is one way of making the comparisons more apples-to-apples between states.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 18, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Ask and you shall receive. You just need to click a few buttons on the WashPo website.
> 
> View attachment 213160
> 
> Honestly... I'm more interested in the %change of deaths, since that is kind of forward looking. When death counts are *changing*, that's the news event. More deaths than last week vs less deaths than last week is what I'm mostly looking at.



I find percentages to be a little misleading honestly. I mean 19 dead in South Carolina for example, probably +/- 3 for error, is not really that many deaths. 99% of people still getting Covid are getting the sniffles at best. I still recommend the vaccine for everyone, and am glad I got my jab, but I do think the media plays heavily with these percentages, without explaining to you 350 million people live here. Even adding all the states together, it's really not that much, and these are in heavily unvaccinated areas, I would have expected actual deaths to be higher, number wise.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 18, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I find percentages to be a little misleading honestly. I mean 19 dead in South Carolina for example, probably +/- 3 for error, is not really that many deaths. 99% of people still getting Covid are getting the sniffles at best. I still recommend the vaccine for everyone, and am glad I got my jab, but I do think the media plays heavily with these percentages, without explaining to you 350 million people live here. Even adding all the states together, it's really not that much, and these are in heavily unvaccinated areas, I would have expected actual deaths to be higher, number wise.



Deaths are always the last thing to react to the situation. First come cases, then come hospitalizations (the stage we're at right now). Then come deaths.

Also that's deaths-per-day. So 19 dead today, 19 dead tomorrow, and etc. etc. (as the numbers are going to go up. COVID19 cases gone up in the past month, and hospitalizations have gone up in the past few weeks... so deaths are likely to continue to climb well into September).

Also: the rates that WashPo discusses are averaged across a week to reduce the amount of noise and help us spot the trends. Its "cleaned up data" so to speak. The raw data is from Johns Hopkins if you wanna look at that. WashPo just makes graphs + gives a basic average across the data to smooth it out a bit.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 18, 2021)

US Covid deaths, as recorded only account for 0.18% of the total population. However, the gross figure of 624k and rising is hardly insignificant.

As for percentages versus absolute numbers, % figs can be applied generally for weight. The implication of a few deaths being low does not apply when a population is lower. A twin of 1000 with 10 deaths is the same % as 1000 deaths in a city of one million. Each has its own weight of grief and consequence.

I also, again, would like to state, the vaccines were produced to reduce death and the evidence overwhelmingly supports that. It's getting tedious hearing about vaccinated deaths for a vaccine that was never 100% effective. Even before Delta, it was 90% ish. That's still one in ten vaccinated people contracting Covid. And again, for the cheap seats, on a huge numbers game, some of those will die. But prior to the vaccines, the death rate was far higher, and that was before Delta.

To compare vaccine effect, look at the situation last year, versus now. The stats in high vaccination areas are quite clear.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 18, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> I also, again, would like to state, the vaccines were produced to reduce death and the evidence overwhelmingly supports that. It's getting tedious hearing about vaccinated deaths for a vaccine that was never 100% effective.



I think you misread someone, I said a few posts above I 100% support the vaccine and have the vaccine myself. I'm simply stating the media, like my Dad watching the news tonight, they only speak in percentages without the context of actual numbers, and I find that in particular to be misleading. The 624k deaths is indeed alarming, but you are also counting the 600k deaths before there was a vaccine readily available, or monoclonal antibodies readily available (which is probably why the death rate in Florida is not so bad, because mass shipments of monoclonal antibodies have gone there). I'm simply stating the death rates are actually much lower, due to vaccine and monoclonal antibodies, but the media hops on the TV and says 85% increase in deaths since last week! Everyone run!!! lol, it's a joke, cause in reality it was only 5 more deaths (for an example of how percentages can be misleading)

Then of course you have the elite, like the Governor of Texas, who is showing no symptoms, and is also receiving monoclonal antibodies as of two days ago, but if I show symptoms, they still won't give me monoclonal antibodies until the symptoms become severe... ah... we are all created equal, that what's they told me in history class... huhuhuhu  What a joke.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 19, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> I also, again, would like to state, the vaccines were produced to reduce death and the evidence overwhelmingly supports that. *It's getting tedious hearing about vaccinated deaths for a vaccine that was never 100% effective. Even before Delta, it was 90% ish*. That's still one in ten vaccinated people contracting Covid. And again, for the cheap seats, on a huge numbers game, some of those will die. But prior to the vaccines, the death rate was far higher, and that was before Delta.



Mostly everyone reverts back to cite Clinical Trial numbers when talking about vaccine efficacy.



> In fact, *all three COVID-19 vaccines authorized for emergency use in the U.S., including those from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, offered 100% protection against hospitalization and death in clinical trials,* but not against infection.



Data is ever changing of course. You personally might be aware of it but even our highest officials aren't relaying a clear message.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 19, 2021)

UK research continues - vaccine still effective against Delta.









						Covid vaccines still effective against Delta variant
					

But the jabs were more effective against the Alpha variant, the largest study of its kind suggests.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> They analysed two and a half million tests results from 743,526 participants in the UK's Covid-19 household-infection survey - led by Oxford University and the Office for National Statistics.





> The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 93% effectiveness against symptomatic infection two weeks after the second dose, compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca's 71%.
> Over time, however, the Pfizer-BioNTech's effectiveness dropped while the Oxford-AstraZeneca's remained largely the same.
> But there was no cause for alarm, Prof Sarah Walker, at the University of Oxford, said because "when you start very very high, you've got a long way to go".




Edit:

More recent info on the benefit of vaccination against Delta.









						Here's How Well COVID-19 Vaccines Work Against the Delta Variant
					

In the fight against the Delta variant, here's how the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines measure up when it comes to protection. A new study found the Moderna vaccine was 76% effective against the Delta variant, while the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective...




					www.healthline.com
				






> Low vaccine uptake driving up infections​“The unvaccinated population is at high risk for infection. If this variant continues to move quickly, especially in areas of low vaccination rates, the U.S. could see a surge in SARS-CoV-2 infection,” said Dr. Miriam Smith, chief of infectious disease at Long Island Jewish Forest Hills Teaching Hospital in Queens, New York City.
> 
> CDC Director Dr. Rochelle WalenskyTrusted Source issued a warning on this potential surge earlier this month.
> 
> ...


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 19, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> UK research continues - vaccine still effective against Delta.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If you ever come across any new data that says those who got pfizer can get a moderna shot for their third or second shot, let me know. I'm leaning towards getting a Moderna shot for my "second shot" but is effectively my third booster based on the science... since i previously had covid and first shot acted as my second shot.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 19, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> If you ever come across any new data that says those who got pfizer can get a moderna shot for their third or second shot, let me know. I'm leaning towards getting a Moderna shot for my "second shot" but is effectively my third booster based on the science... since i previously had covid and first shot acted as my second shot.



We dont have that choice in UK. You get what you're given. Like kids at dinnertime.  

That means we'll have no research on that as numbers will be low and/or difficult to gather for study data.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 19, 2021)

Your not going to like what US just said then. 

Starting Oct 1, Boosters will be made available to all people. People who've had there 2nd shot will need a 3rd shot 8 months apart.

You might not be considered fully immunized even having only 2 shots come Oct 1


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 19, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Your not going to like what US just said then.
> 
> Starting Oct 1, Boosters will be made available to all people. People who've had there 2nd shot will need a 3rd shot 8 months apart.
> 
> You might not be considered fully immunized even having only 2 shots come Oct 1



It's good news for me, it means when I get my second shot, I will be good to go for at least 8 months. I'm going to try to time it so I don't need my third shot until around June of 2022 - but even then I will probably hold off on it until middle of August 2022 - so I will be peak protection right when the 2022 school year starts and heading into winter.

I'm still sticking to one shot a year thing no matter what they say, unless my job requires it.  But my job was remote even before Covid existed, so I should be good to go even if I decide to pass on all future shots. I haven't really decided yet. It all depends if I can get full time remote or not, for now I am just part time. If I get full time, I may cancel my travel plans, buy me a little log cabin on outskirts of some small town, adopt two dogs, and just go kayaking solo and enjoy the peaceful life solo. This whole idea we have to grind our entire life and sit in 2 hour traffic is nonsense, life is way to short for that. Hell, even if I don't go full time I may do my plan anyway, Instead of owning a car I will just own a cheap motorcycle and bundle up extra good when winter hits, LOL instead of owning decent sized log cabin I will do a one room only log cabin.  life is what you make of it.  YOLO


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 19, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Data is ever changing of course. You personally might be aware of it but even our highest officials aren't relaying a clear message.



What's unclear about it?

Death-effectiveness, and Hospitalization effectiveness was 100% from the trials. *Literally no one* in the 30,000-person tests for Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J died or got hospitalized.

It was an incredible result from an incredible trial. Your quote right there even makes it clear that it was hospitalization effectiveness and death effectiveness being measured.

Now that the vaccine has been out for hundreds-of-millions of individuals, we now know that the death-efficacy is closer to 98% effective and not 100%. We also now know that Pfizer seems to be losing effectiveness the soonest (causing this whole "Booster" shot discussion to start up).


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 19, 2021)

From: CDC


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 19, 2021)

Supposedly only one new local case, but six cases in total and five deaths...








						Taiwan reports 1 local COVID case, 5 deaths | Taiwan News | 2021-08-19 14:21:00
					

Taipei reports zero COVID cases, New Taipei 1.Taiwan reports 5 imported COVID cases from US, Lithuania, Vietnam, UAE, and Iran | 2021-08-19 14:21:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## xkm1948 (Aug 19, 2021)

Most up to date primary literature review on the origins of CoVID-19 from Cell, one of the most prestigious publishing body. Authors are some of the world top experts on molecular genetics and viral genetics. This is a review. I would HIGHLY recommend you read it yourself entirely. I don't want to make a TL;DR as a review is already a TL;DR of the research paper it combed through.

Here is the link for the paper









						The origins of SARS-CoV-2: A critical review
					

A review of the current literature supports a zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-2 and emphasizes the need to focus on identifying the exact animal host through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies. This will enable the community to understand the roots of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as...



					www.cell.com
				







PDF is also linked


----------



## HTC (Aug 22, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published last Monday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 45465 active cases --- 98 more --- 14 more per day
- 956316 recovered --- 15910 more --- 2273 more per day
- 17639 fatalities --- 77 more --- 11 more per day
- 1019420 confirmed infected --- 16085 more --- 2298 more per day

- 16496290 tests taken --- 383735 more --- 54819 more per day but was last updated August 20th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 708 hospitalized --- *36 less --- 5 less per day*
- 152 in ICU --- *5 less --- 1 less per day*

Week fatalities decreased noticeably VS last week, with 3 consecutive days having single digit fatalities. The R number *increased* a bit more, with it now being 0.98 on average and it's edging ever closer to 1.0, with a slightly rising tendency. New daily cases decreased slightly VS last week. Both hospitalized and ICU numbers have dropped again VS last week, but the difference is also very slight.

This weekend Portugal interrupted regular scheduled vaccination again in order to vaccinate youngsters aged 12 to 15: roughly 150K have received their 1st dose already with the vast majority of those being yesterday. Next weekend we'll do the same to try and complete this age bracket, or @ least vaccinate the vast majority.

I'm stopping the report on vaccinations because of conflicting data. In the pics above, *updated today*, Portugal has administered 13506039 vaccines, of which 7851755 were 1st doses and 5654284 were doses to complete the vaccination (either 2nd dose or single dose, depending on the vaccine).

However, and according to our weekly vaccination report *published on August 15th* (click for full picture):



Portugal has administered 14093439 vaccines, of which 7791486 were 1st doses and 6760777 were doses to complete the vaccination (either 2nd dose or single dose, depending on the vaccine): almost 460K more vaccines administered *7 days ago* than today??????

This discrepancy has been increasing and Portugal *seems to be referring to the stats on this page in the news*, which is why i'm stopping the report about the vaccination i had been doing up to now. Portugal claimed Friday to have reached 70% population fully vaccinated, and today said it has now the 3rd highest full vaccination rate in the World.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 23, 2021)

Dropping into single-digits %rise-per-week. +8% in USA last week.





Hospitalizations +10% from last week.

To the foreigners out there: Florida is very famous for hosting tax-favorable retirement communities. Florida almost certainly has the worst hospitalizations because they got the most old people.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 26, 2021)

Deaths finally beginning to kick in.





Florida sitting there with +600% growth in deaths over last week. As I stated before: exponential rises in cases leads to exponential rises in hospitalizations... and eventually exponential rises in deaths.

COVID19 surge continues. Despite being inflected down, we haven't reached the peak yet for this country. Expect these hospitalizations and deaths to continue for at least another month after the case# peak.

Its too late for the vaccine to save anyone for this surge. But I still strongly suggest getting the vaccine to prepare for the winter-surge. I remember the "summer surge" from 2020, and everyone thought the worst was over... only to realize that this thing is *way* more dangerous in the winter. With enough vaccinations, we can minimize the damage come December / January / February.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 26, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Deaths finally beginning to kick in.
> 
> View attachment 214326
> 
> ...



Florida had 9 deaths yesterday from Covid. I find the 600% number very confusing.


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 26, 2021)

Hi,
Funny they went to paying people to get the jabs lol 
Terrible model.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 26, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Funny they went to paying people to get the jabs lol
> Terrible model.



It's simply out of desperation, one of my cousins just got the vaccine yesterday and did it for no money. I think enough overflowing hospitals over 18 month period of multiple surges was finally enough to convince her.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 26, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Florida had 9 deaths yesterday from Covid. I find the 600% number very confusing.



The data source is John's Hopkins University. A non-governmental group, they're a research university. I'm not sure how they gather their data, but people seem to trust them. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/about

But when you have multiple groups counting deaths, you'll end up with inconsistencies. Its just the nature of modern "science", it turns out that different scientists have different points of view and there's less consensus than you'd like to imagine. That being said: WashPo has consistently used John Hopkin's COVID19 numbers.

The highest quality numbers are likely to come from the CDC mortality department. *But it takes over a year* for those statistics to be gathered. Needless to say, being a year late on this data is not very helpful. As such, we're putting up with worse / inconsistent death numbers in favor of more rapid reporting. The data will be wrong in subtle ways. There's just not enough time to get daily, or weekly numbers, with high amounts of accuracy. Its the nature of working with cutting-edge numbers before they've been verified.

There's a monthly mortality report from the CDC, that the CDC still considers as "initial data", but likely better than John Hopkin's day-by-day data.

----

Look how slow the CDC official data is: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm?s_cid=mm7034e1_w

Today is August 26th. They're only beginning to report on numbers from June. Delta wasn't even dominant back in June, the data is useless for determining today's policies. As such, those who want to follow this discussion must put up with weaker data sources that move more quickly.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 26, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The data source is John's Hopkins University. A non-governmental group, they're a research university. I'm not sure how they gather their data, but people seem to trust them. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/about
> 
> But when you have multiple groups counting deaths, you'll end up with inconsistencies. Its just the nature of modern "science", it turns out that different scientists have different points of view and there's less consensus than you'd like to imagine. That being said: WashPo has consistently used John Hopkin's COVID19 numbers.
> 
> ...



if you really want your argumentation on data and science to hit home, research how many nurses quit since covid started. those are the numbers i'd like to see.  I think Mississippi alone had 2000 nurses quit since pandemic started and their hospitals are basically completely broken because lack of help and overwhelmed/stress burnout from the ones that did stay. 

but yeah, the actual possibility of burnout and career changes being big enough they might change healthcare entirely... scary future ahead unless 100% vaccination and a new booster shot every 6-8 months. and since rest of the world will never be able to do that level of vaccination, even when/if we reach that, we will eventually let our guard down and people traveling from other countries will have a new mutation and so on and so forth and it will never end.

mRNA might be highly overrated the more we are learning how quickly it fades.  6 months is not long enough for this particular virus. you won't be able to convince the majority to get a new shot every 6 months, you might for a year or so, but that's about it.  

they need to invest more heavily in the "flonase" like delivery vaccines that are still stuck in stage 1 trials.  we don't have time to wait, people hate needles. this is the only way forward, they need to figure it out, and Congress lack of funding in pushing it is a huge mistake long term.  but I guess people love lockdowns and losing trillions of dollars, so eh.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 26, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> if you really want your argumentation on data and science to hit home, research how many nurses quit since covid started. those are the numbers i'd like to see.  I think Mississippi alone had 2000 nurses quit since pandemic started and their hospitals are basically completely broken because lack of help and overwhelmed/stress burnout from the ones that did stay.
> 
> but yeah, the actual possibility of burnout and career changes being big enough they might change healthcare entirely... scary future ahead unless 100% vaccination and a new booster shot every 6-8 months. and since rest of the world will never be able to do that level of vaccination, even when/if we reach that, we will eventually let our guard down and people traveling from other countries will have a new mutation and so on and so forth and it will never end.
> 
> ...


The research released this week in the UK was with the Pfizer and AZ vaccines, it involved 1.2 million vaccinated people and evidenced that there was around a 10 - 15% reduction in efficacy at the 5 month point (AZ) and the 6 month point (PZ), but this relates only to infection and transmission, not severe illness and death.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 26, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> The research released this week in the UK was with the Pfizer and AZ vaccines, it involved 1.2 million vaccinated people and evidenced that there was around a 10 - 15% reduction in efficacy at the 5 month point (AZ) and the 6 month point (PZ), but this relates only to infection and transmission, not severe illness and death.



indeed, hopefully it ends up being we only need one shot every 12 months not 8 months. i still think 8 months will be to hard to convince, and I still think the "flonase" based vaccines are the future, they just make a lot of sense. let's hope they get those working regardless.


----------



## Ahhzz (Aug 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> indeed, hopefully it ends up being we only need one shot every 12 months not 8 months. i still think 8 months will be to hard to convince, and I still think the "flonase" based vaccines are the future, they just make a lot of sense. let's hope they get those working regardless.


I think the problem is, too many people still discount the virus as a hoax, so it really doesn't matter how you present the protection, they don't "need" protection against a lie.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 27, 2021)

From: Public Health England





Additional since *last report*

UnVaccinated
Cases: 32,079
Deaths: 137
0.43%

Vaccinated
Cases: 26,364
Deaths: 277
1.051%


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 27, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> I think the problem is, too many people still discount the virus as a hoax, so it really doesn't matter how you present the protection, they don't "need" protection against a lie.


That sadly is indeed still a big issue.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> From: Public Heath England
> View attachment 214331
> 
> Additional since *last report*
> ...


It makes sense.  If you end up in the hospital while vaccinated, it's obvious covid is kicking your ass, hard, ie you are inherently vulnerable to it. It'd likely be far worse for that same group were they not vaccinated at all.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 27, 2021)

New Study Confirms Its Much Safer to Get Vaccinated Than to Catch Covid-19
					

In real-world data from Israel, adverse events like heart inflammation were much more common in infected people than those vaccinated with the Pfizer shot.




					gizmodo.com
				




Does anyone know why the swelling of the lymph nodes after vaccine in the chart in that article is considered bad? I thought that was normal for when the body is fighting off infection / creating antibodies. Other than that, the article confirms what we already know, get the vaccine. So yeah. I'm looking at September 1st for my second shot, then May 1st for my third shot. Easy to remember this way. I should be peak immunity all winter.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 27, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It makes sense.  If you end up in the hospital while vaccinated, it's obvious covid is kicking your ass, hard, ie you are inherently vulnerable to it. It'd likely be far worse for that same group were they not vaccinated at all.



Maybe, Looking at the overnight stay numbers to deaths

Vaccinated
e 55%
i 30.81%
Combined - 19.74%

UnVaccinated
e 17,2%
i 9.68%
Combined - 6.19%


----------



## Final_Fighter (Aug 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Maybe, Looking at the overnight stay numbers to deaths
> 
> Vaccinated
> e 55%
> ...


just saw this Study and thought it may have something to do with those numbers.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 27, 2021)

Final_Fighter said:


> just saw this Study and thought it may have something to do with those numbers.


Unherd.com kinda initially struck me as a name for some right wing conspiracy site, but just for the record, the outlet appears mostly legit, some sort of offshoot of The Independent for "unheard" issues:






						UnHerd - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




I'm still skeptical of the studies claims as naturally immunity has been shown to only work against the variant you caught, ie, not all of them.  That makes it inherently less suitable even if the above were true.

And even if the study is right, you can be sure it's conclusions will be misused by anti-vaxxer types who wrote their own conclusions above the vaccine long ago.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 27, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> From: Public Health England
> 
> View attachment 214331
> 
> ...



Tragic.

How the older pop is getting hit. The age breakdown from that will further show that the majority of deaths will be in the >70's - those whose immune systems are already weakened by age and co-morbidity. Also consider that this group has been vaccinated fully for up to 6 months and likely without much further exposure to Covid. So, no T-cell immunity build up.

However, what this clearly shows is that the _unvaccinated under 50's have a larger risk to life than those who are vaccinated_.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 27, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I'm still skeptical of the studies claims as naturally immunity has been shown to only work against the variant you caught, ie, not all of them.  That makes it inherently less suitable even if the above were true.
> 
> And even if the study is right, you can be sure it's conclusions will be misused by anti-vaxxer types who wrote their own conclusions above the vaccine long ago.



Public Health England has verified 137 reinfections out of 5.2million as of August 1 2021

Israel Ministry Of Health has confirmed 72 reinfections


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 27, 2021)

Over 100,000 deaths prevented by vaccines, PHE reveals
					






					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




Might pay-walled for some.

Same folks as have been quoted in tables (Public Health England) also say vaccines have prevented 100,000 deaths (up from previous estimates).


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 27, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Over 100,000 deaths prevented by vaccines, PHE reveals
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The numbers are attributed to Office of National Statistics

It also says it prevented 24 million infections


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 27, 2021)

Yeah, the ONS is the UK data cruncher. All stats for official figures normally come through there.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 27, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Yeah, the ONS is the UK data cruncher. All stats for official figures normally come through there.



Yes, Its their model that their using.

If its preventing 24mil infections and there has only been 6.6million cases in the UK since the start. Its doing a good job.

---
*Update*:

The model is from Cambridge University’s MRC Biostatistics Unit using Office of National Statistics numbers

Infection / Cases would be 800% worse

Deaths would be 200% worse


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 27, 2021)

Mixing stats.

6.6 million is the recorded number of positive tests. This is empirical. The actual numbers were estimated to be far higher.

The 24 million figure is the ONS estimate based on infection rates and the general population. This is extrapolation.

The guesstimate for infections is hard to pin down but a figure put forward back in January was 12.4 million.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 27, 2021)

Hmm. Instead of declining, the Case# rate has gone from 8% rise to 11% rise. I'm pretty surprised that this damn wave hasn't reached its peak yet.

Louisiana might be in for a difficult week. A big hurricane is coming in right now, and we all know that their hospitals are already packed with COVID19 cases. There's also the evacuations to consider: how to evacuate safely when you're one of the worst COVID19 hotspots in the country?

These evacuations are typically handled by opening emergency housing in hurricane-safe locations, such as large stadiums... or evacuating to a local schools. A lot of poor folk live in trailer homes without a foundation of any kind, so staying in such a home is a death sentence if the hurricane flies directly into the area (not only winds, but also the storm surge). Going to an evacuation zone means mingling with hundreds, maybe thousands of others however, which now carries COVID19 risks. The calculus of whether or not to go to an evacuation center has gained an additional wart this year, and neither decision seems particularly pleasant.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431297701535158279
Current estimates are an 11-foot (3-meter) storm surge, which is more than enough to drown homes along the coast. Hopefully the hurricane veers off-course towards a less populated area.


----------



## neatfeatguy (Aug 28, 2021)

Perhaps an interesting read for folks?









						‘Bombshell’ study finds natural immunity superior to vaccination
					

A major study conducted by Israeli researchers into natural immunity has found that immunity acquired via infection from Covid-19 is superior to immunity from the Pfizer vaccine. Researchers at Maccabi Healthcare and Tel Aviv University compared the outcomes of over 76,000 Israelis in three...




					unherd.com


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 28, 2021)

Two die in Japan after shots from suspended Moderna vaccines - Japan govt
					

Two people died after receiving Moderna Inc COVID-19 vaccine shots that were among lots later suspended following the discovery of contaminants, Japan's health ministry said on Saturday.




					www.reuters.com
				




Metallic particles in Moderna vaccine. 

I imagine vaccine hesitancy in rollout to other countries will increase because of this as well, again not funding the nasal based vaccines to move faster was a huge huge mistake.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 28, 2021)

neatfeatguy said:


> Perhaps an interesting read for folks?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not sure it's a bombshell though, the obvious downside to this is you have to catch it in the first place, with the potential for new variants personally I would rather get vaccinated, at least then if I still catch it I have the benefit of less risk and gain from that additional natural immunity.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 28, 2021)

neatfeatguy said:


> Perhaps an interesting read for folks?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah, the point is, the chance of death from Covid is far smaller with the vaccine. It's academic whether or not you catch it, the problem is what it can do.

So, it's safer to catch it after vaccination, than to risk catching it from scratch, especially if you're in the older population.

Another way to paraphrase the study would be to say: if you survive Covid, you're better immunised than by vaccine alone.

Edit: lol. Have to call @lynx29.

The study also says this:



> The researchers also found that people who had SARS-CoV-2 previously and then received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine were more highly protected against reinfection than those who once had the virus and were still unvaccinated.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 28, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Edit: lol. Have to call @lynx29.
> 
> The study also says this:



yep every single study from around the world has confirmed this over and over and over.    and can now add another confirmation to it. i mean that's the whole point of the scientific method being verified over and over and over.


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Two die in Japan after shots from suspended Moderna vaccines - Japan govt
> 
> 
> Two people died after receiving Moderna Inc COVID-19 vaccine shots that were among lots later suspended following the discovery of contaminants, Japan's health ministry said on Saturday.
> ...



"There may only be a temporal relationship between vaccination and death," Sakamoto told Reuters. "There are so many things we still don't know to make any conclusions on these two cases."


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 28, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Did you even read the article?
> 
> "There may only be a temporal relationship between vaccination and death," Sakamoto told Reuters. "There are so many things we still don't know to make any conclusions on these two cases."
> 
> ...



Did you not read the article? Those previous deaths have nothing to do with the vaccine being contaminated, they are simply deaths that occurred of natural causes or Covid breakthrough post-vaccination date. 

This article is new. Not related to that stuff.

Metal contaminants in the vaccine. Vaccine recalled.  2 Deaths related to the vaccine lot that was recalled.

So... not fear... facts?


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Did you not read the article? Those previous deaths have nothing to do with the vaccine being contaminated, they are simply deaths that occurred of natural causes or Covid breakthrough post-vaccination date.
> 
> This article is new. Not related to that stuff.
> 
> ...


"There may only be a temporal relationship between vaccination and death," Sakamoto told Reuters. "There are so many things we still don't know to make any conclusions on these two cases."

The contaminants were in some vials. No one has mentioned they are related to the death.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 28, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> "There may only be a temporal relationship between vaccination and death," Sakamoto told Reuters. "There are so many things we still don't know to make any conclusions on these two cases."
> 
> The contaminants were in some vials. No one has mentioned they are related to the death.



True, nothing is certain, I mean technically speaking even 2+2 doesn't = 4 in the quantum physics world. I was simply sharing an article I read, that happened have the two deaths mentioned as well as the metal contaminant recall in the same article.

I concede however, technically you are correct.  Perhaps, the media should think of new ways of reporting stuff eh?


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> True, nothing is certain, I mean technically speaking even 2+2 doesn't = 4 in the quantum physics world. I was simply sharing an article I read, that happened have the two deaths mentioned as well as the metal contaminant recall in the same article.
> 
> I concede however, technically you are correct.  Perhaps, the media should think of new ways of reporting stuff eh?


Nothing to do with the media reported.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 28, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Nothing to do with the media reported. You stated, and I highlighted for you -
> 
> This is misinformation on your part. This is how FUD started.



I think they are tied together, based on how the article reads, however, it is simply not proven yet? Isn't that what the article is saying or did I read it wrong?


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I think they are tied together, based on how the article reads, however, it is simply not proven yet? Isn't that what the article is saying or did I read it wrong?


It was not proven yet. No one knows for certain why and how the 2 persons died, as stated in the article.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 28, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> It was not proven yet. No one knows for certain why and how the 2 persons died, as stated in the article.



Fair enough then, imo, they should not have included the two deaths in the article at all then, those should have been two separate articles, 1 being "moderna vaccine lot recalled due to metallic contaminants"  and another article being titled "two in Japan recently die from Moderna vaccine, still being investigated"

imo there is no logical reason to include both in same article if it not linked in some way.  otherwise people like me on the autism spectrum tend to get confused.


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 28, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Fair enough then, imo, they should not have included the two deaths in the article at all then, those should have been two separate articles, 1 being "moderna vaccine lot recalled due to metallic contaminants"  and another article being titled "two in Japan recently die from Moderna vaccine, still being investigated"
> 
> imo there is no logical reason to include both in same article if it not linked in some way.  otherwise people like me on the autism spectrum tend to get confused.


I agree, the media report certainly wants to hint at the correlation for the readers, but we just need to be careful not to be trapped by that.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 29, 2021)

neatfeatguy said:


> Perhaps an interesting read for folks?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Already posted my reaction to it in the main stats thread.  Seems this one is making the rounds virally.


----------



## TheLostSwede (Aug 29, 2021)

After two zero local case days, things exploded with a total of 23 cases and a death.








						Taiwan confirms 13 new local COVID cases | Taiwan News | 2021-08-29 14:33:00
					

Single death announced Sunday was Filipino man in his 60s | 2021-08-29 14:33:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 29, 2021)

I'd post the Scottish graph for cases but I only have a 1440p vertical resolution. But seriously, our cases are phenomonally high but we're mostly shrugging our shoulders and watching the 'relatively' low hospitalisations and deaths.

Scotland data:








Our current surge peak is 6478 cases per day... whoopsy...

But for ease of mind, the last surge in July (topping out at 3922) led to a peak of 9 deaths/day (7 day average)

Compared to the pre-vaccine coverage when the surge in January (topping out at 3133) led to a peak of 64 deaths/day (7 day average)

Our vaccine coverage in Scotland is approx. *80%* (both doses) and we've had a lot of Covid cases, so combined, I don't see the threat from Covid. Sure, we'll keep getting deaths (which is unfortunate) but a medic quoted the other day said our Covid death rates are now broadly similar to that of seasonal flu (another virus that we combated with vaccines).


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 29, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> I'd post the Scottish graph for cases but I only have a 1440p vertical resolution. But seriously, our cases are phenomonally high but we're mostly shrugging our shoulders and watching the 'relatively' low hospitalisations and deaths.



It looks like ~4000 cases/day leads to ~100 hospitalizations?

Which seems fine, at least by standards of my state (we probably can afford ~2000 COVID19 hospitalizations or so), and it seems like we have similar populations. But we only really got there when we started using student nurses + all sorts of emergency measures. Maybe 1500-hospitalizations per 6-million is the point where doctors / nurses started to get stressed (remember: hospitalizations are "sticky" and will hang around for around a month if you ever get there).

"Stressed" as in, we start to take in emergency measures. Cancellation of less important care, use of student nurses to handle shifts, and other such measures.

Meanwhile...






It looks like we've hit a peak over here at around 1000 cases/day and 700 hospitalizations. Hopefully this peak "sticks" and we continue to decline.

We're doing 25,000+ tests per day and under 5% positive. So I still trust our case# (though our case# might be an underestimate since 5% positive is the cutoff point decided for when tests start to undercount cases). We are at 3.7-million fully vaccinated (out of 6-million total residents), so ~61% fully vaccinated. So there is a substantial gap in vaccination status compared to Scotland, which may explain the difference in our case vs hospitalization numbers?


----------



## HTC (Aug 30, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published last Monday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 45659 active cases --- 194 more --- 28 more per day
- 971567 recovered --- 15251 more --- 2179 more per day
- 17721 fatalities --- 82 more --- 11 more per day
- 1034947 confirmed infected --- 15527 more --- 2218 more per day

- 16902587 tests taken --- 406297 more --- 50787 more per day but was last updated August 28th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 698 hospitalized --- *10 less --- 1 less per day*
- 148 in ICU --- *4 less --- 1 less per day*

Week fatalities increased slightly VS last week. The R number *increased* a bit more, with it now being 0.99 on average. New daily cases decreased slightly VS last week. Both hospitalized and ICU numbers have dropped again VS last week, but the difference is minimal.

This weekend Portugal interrupted regular scheduled vaccination again in order to vaccinate youngsters aged 12 to 15 (1st dose). Unfortunately, it didn't go as well as we hoped because there were a lot less children vaccinated than we would have liked: as of yesterday, we have vaccinated roughly 50% of those aged 12 to 15. While it certainly contributes to the country's overall vaccination effort, it's still not enough.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 30, 2021)

New COVID variant detected in South Africa, most mutated variant so far
					

The C.1.2 variant first detected in South Africa is more mutated compared to the original virus than any other known variant.




					www.jpost.com
				




new variant detected, its already spread to several countries apparently.  most mutated version of covid they have seen yet.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> New COVID variant detected in South Africa, most mutated variant so far
> 
> 
> The C.1.2 variant first detected in South Africa is more mutated compared to the original virus than any other known variant.
> ...


Yeah it's been around for 3-4 months and apparently is in the UK as well as other countries, if it really did originate in South Africa it is likely to have come from another country to get to us as South Africa has been red listed for ages, it also seems that the EU has placed further travel restrictions on 6 countries due to high infection rates including the US.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> New COVID variant detected in South Africa, most mutated variant so far
> 
> 
> The C.1.2 variant first detected in South Africa is more mutated compared to the original virus than any other known variant.
> ...



The important question: can it outcompete Delta?

It doesn't matter how many mutations it has. Only if those mutations are "better" than the current dominant virus (Alpha or Delta) will it become an issue. There was this huge hype going on for Gamma and Lambda months ago, and neither variant became relevant (well, outside of the geography where they first appeared).

EDIT: Secondly, there's also a good chance that "it doesn't matter". In that our plan to fight against C.1.2 is probably the same as fighting vs Delta or Alpha or the original COVID19. Vaccine up, mask up, and hope for the best. Even if C.1.2 outcompetes Delta and becomes dominant, it probably changes nothing from a planning or policy perspective.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 30, 2021)

New Zealand reports first death linked to Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine
					

New Zealand reported its first recorded death linked to the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the health ministry said on Monday, after a woman suffered a rare heart muscle inflammation side effect.




					www.reuters.com
				




Hmm.


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> New Zealand reports first death linked to Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine
> 
> 
> New Zealand reported its first recorded death linked to the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the health ministry said on Monday, after a woman suffered a rare heart muscle inflammation side effect.
> ...


Not surprising, as no drugs or vaccines are completely safe. Some will die from vaccine, regardless how safe it is claimed to be. Actually, considered how many have taken the vaccine and only 1 death (if confirmed) so far, I will  still take my chance  I did have an very severe reaction to my second Moderna shot (chill, fever, back pain, for 3 days).

A study here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4599698/


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 30, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Not surprising, as no drugs or vaccines are completely safe. Some will die from vaccine, regardless how safe it is claimed to be. Actually, considered how many have taken the vaccine and only 1 death (if confirmed) so far, I will  still take my chance  I did have an very severe reaction to my second Moderna shot (chill, fever, back pain, for 3 days).
> 
> A study here:
> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4599698/



I'm not saying anything against it or for it, just sharing the new info.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 30, 2021)

@lynx29 - Don't you think it's about time you stopped reacting to every vaccine death?

You see one death from 'goodness knows how many million' shots and make it a thing. It's ridiculous. You get 11 automobile deaths per 100,000 in the US - you going to stop using cars and buses? 480,000 annual deaths from smoking. 95,000 annual alcohol deaths. 93,000 annual drug overdose deaths.

I'm using US stats because that's where you are. You need to stop making these pointless remarks about a vaccine death. In the UK, the estimates for deaths *prevented* by vaccine are 100,000.

Yes, people have had fatal reactions to vaccines but similarly, people can die from a wasp sting. About 20 people annualy in the UK die from anaphilaxys. Life kills. You make a choice here, take the vaccine risk, or the covid risk. You've already established you're on good grounds with vaccine plus covid infection. So why keep making noises? I genuinely don't understand your issue. I literally found out today that my wife's best friends husband has just lost his 17yr old son to a car accident. Far more folk die from car use than vaccines. And vaccines saves lives to boot.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm not saying anything against it or for it, just sharing the new info.





the54thvoid said:


> @lynx29 - Don't you think it's about time you stopped reacting to every vaccine death?
> 
> You see one death from 'goodness knows how many million' shots and make it a thing. It's ridiculous. You get 11 automobile deaths per 100,000 in the US - you going to stop using cars and buses? 480,000 annual deaths from smoking. 95,000 annual alcohol deaths. 93,000 annual drug overdose deaths.
> 
> ...



umm... people are not allowed to read new data about Covid now? an interesting development to be sure... very well then. farewell.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> umm... people are not allowed to read new data about Covid now? an interesting development to be sure... very well then. farewell.



You can read new data all you want but how you react to it is pretty predictable. And you post it as if it's news. It's not.

Heres the US data:



> The risk of myocarditis was 18.5 per million doses given among people aged 18 to 24 after their second Pfizer dose and  20.2 per million for that age group among Moderna second dose recipients. The risk decreases with age, according to the CDC analysis based on its national reporting system.





> There have been no U.S. deaths reported for young adults who developed myocarditis after being given the mRNA vaccines, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Monday.





> Separately, it also said that a total of 2,574 U.S. cases of myocarditis or pericarditis had been reported. More than 330 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have been administered in the United States.



That's one in 128,000 for cases - not even deaths.


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 30, 2021)

I personally find that it is okay post the risk or death from the vaccine, as long as the piece is confirmed by health or gov authority. Although I read about the same news from Bloomberg this morning, People may be interested to know the side effects or in the most severe cases, death can be expected.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 30, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I personally find that it is okay post the risk or death from the vaccine, as long as the piece is confirmed by health or gov authority. People may be interested to know the side effects or in the most severe cases, death can be expected.



Its just the trolley problem over and over again.

A trolley is moving to kill 10 people right now. Do you hit the switch (killing 1 person on the other side) ? Well, yes. In the absence of any further data, "hitting the button" and killing the one person is better than doing nothing and letting 10 people die.

So do you push vaccines? A disease is poised to kill hundreds-of-thousands of people per year, and a vaccine exists that can erase 98% of those deaths (saving hundreds-of-thousands of lives). However, the vaccine injures or kills some number of ~1-in-a-million deaths of someone unrelated. By pushing vaccines, you kill those 1-in-a-million people, but save the lives of hundreds-of-thousands.

The politics just become funny because as long as you don't touch the switch, you're not responsible for the deaths of either side. That's why I take to a particular argumentative stance. Those who wish for a hands-off policy are pretending that they're unrelated to the switch and want to wash their hands of it. You gotta get the discussion framed in a certain manner if you actually want people to agree with you to "hit the switch, killing the one person" in the trolley problem.


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 30, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Its just the trolley problem over and over again.
> 
> A trolley is moving to kill 10 people right now. Do you hit the switch (killing 1 person on the other side) ? Well, yes. In the absence of any further data, "hitting the button" and killing the one person is better than doing nothing and letting 10 people die.
> 
> ...



Funny, wife and I were just discussing the trolley problem during the weekend. Did the exercise during undergrad logic and ethics class, and had to do it again during MBA ethics class. We both agreed it is the stupidest and most pointless problem presented in college.


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 30, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> @lynx29 - Don't you think it's about time you stopped reacting to every vaccine death?
> 
> You see one death from 'goodness knows how many million' shots and make it a thing. It's ridiculous. You get 11 automobile deaths per 100,000 in the US - you going to stop using cars and buses? 480,000 annual deaths from smoking. 95,000 annual alcohol deaths. 93,000 annual drug overdose deaths.
> 
> ...


Hi,
Like to see it somewhere mainstream media has blinders.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 30, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Funny, wife and I were just discussing the trolley problem during the weekend. Did the exercise during undergrad logic and ethics class, and had to do it again during MBA ethics class. We both agreed it is the stupidest and most pointless problem presented in college.



I too thought it was a stupid problem until this past year, where so many people are opting for the "kill 10 people" side of this COVID19 trolley problem.

Then I realized the trolley problem was not about ethics. It was about the *politics of ethics*. How could someone possibly decide that doing nothing and seeing 10 people die was better than doing something and killing 1 person? The problem itself offers an obvious solution as part of its framing. It only becomes a debate because of how our group dynamics and group politics work.

Even if we all agree that the button should be pushed, people don't want to accept responsibility, which is fine. Politically speaking, the expedient approach is to wait for a responsible person to push the button, then blame the button-pusher for problems down the road.


----------



## Caring1 (Aug 30, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> New Zealand reports first death linked to Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine
> 
> 
> New Zealand reported its first recorded death linked to the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the health ministry said on Monday, after a woman suffered a rare heart muscle inflammation side effect.
> ...


I suspect the vaccine triggers an already existing genetic predisposition to the condition.
Anything can trigger it, even stress or other viral factors.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 30, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> I suspect the vaccine triggers an already existing genetic predisposition to the condition.
> Anything can trigger it, even stress or other viral factors.



I still think nasal based vaccines should be the future. Not sure what is taking Stage 1 trials so long. My guess is Moderna and Pfizer have an active monetary interest in making sure the nasal based vaccines don't progress forward, but who knows. 

Nasal basaed vaccines could end this pandemic overnight if they figure it out and get it approved, so many people simply refuse needles...


----------



## claes (Aug 31, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Nasal basaed vaccines could end this pandemic overnight if they figure it out and get it approved, so many people simply refuse needles...


They really wouldn’t. Anti-Vaxers aren’t going to change their minds just because it’s a new medium/older technology, and there’d still be the issues of global production and distribution, vaccine inequity etc


----------



## MxPhenom 216 (Aug 31, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It makes sense.  If you end up in the hospital while vaccinated, it's obvious covid is kicking your ass, hard, ie you are inherently vulnerable to it. It'd likely be far worse for that same group were they not vaccinated at all.


How can you get much worst than dying from it, vaccinated or not?


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 31, 2021)

MxPhenom 216 said:


> How can you get much worst than dying from it, vaccinated or not?


I...  ok have your point.  That is kinda hard to rebuke.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 31, 2021)

claes said:


> They really wouldn’t. Anti-Vaxers aren’t going to change their minds just because it’s a new medium/older technology, and there’d still be the issues of global production and distribution, vaccine inequity etc




Well I didn't mean universally, but it's common sense that most people would be more open minded to a quick nasal sniff versus a needle. Especially since early results show the nasal vaccines create an antibody that stops covid in its tracks better than needle based antibodies.  Too tired to look up source on it. Gnite mates


----------



## Ahhzz (Aug 31, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Well I didn't mean universally, but it's common sense that most people would be more open minded to a quick nasal sniff versus a needle. Especially since early results show the nasal vaccines create an antibody that stops covid in its tracks better than needle based antibodies.  Too tired to look up source on it. Gnite mates


I really gotta disagree here, man. I think anyone who doesn't accept that the virus is real and that the vaccine is needful, isn't going to care how it's presented. I seriously doubt there's anyone left alive out there who thinks "Man, I know the virus and stuff, and it's killing people... but I don't like needles, so no thanks. I'll take my chances on getting put in the hospital and being treated like a voodoo doll rather than take a single needle"...


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 31, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> I really gotta disagree here, man. I think anyone who doesn't accept that the virus is real and that the vaccine is needful, isn't going to care how it's presented. I seriously doubt there's anyone left alive out there who thinks "Man, I know the virus and stuff, and it's killing people... but I don't like needles, so no thanks. I'll take my chances on getting put in the hospital and being treated like a voodoo doll rather than take a single needle"...



Well I still haven't got my second shot yet. If you told me next week I could do a nasal vaccine in place of it, I would have 0 hesitation. mRNA scares crap out of me, I only did it out of FEAR of death. I still think 1 shot plus previous covid is enough for me, at least until 8 months after my first shot anyway. 

but yeah I would be more willing to do the nasal vaccine right now instead of waiting - if it were available to me.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 31, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> I really gotta disagree here, man. I think anyone who doesn't accept that the virus is real and that the vaccine is needful, isn't going to care how it's presented. I seriously doubt there's anyone left alive out there who thinks "Man, I know the virus and stuff, and it's killing people... but I don't like needles, so no thanks. I'll take my chances on getting put in the hospital and being treated like a voodoo doll rather than take a single needle"...



I think its a little disingenuous to categorize them as such. A perfect example that is evident in both the UK and US is Health Care worker were still hesitant before the mandates started to kick in.

From: American Nurses Association




It's not like these people weren't seeing the effects first hand. Yet depending on the Health Care Network you had between 60-30% still unvaccinated.  Now that the mandates kicked in you have anywhere between 5-18% of nurses shortages across the USA varied by state.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I think its a little disingenuous to categorize them as such. A perfect example that is evident in both the UK and US is Health Care worker were still hesitant before the mandates started to kick in.
> 
> From: American Nurses Association
> View attachment 214839
> ...




that 66% number would go away with nasal vaccine, lot of that fear is the mRNA/needle tied into that same category.  people "feel" like a nasal vaccine would cause less damage long or short term.  cause its less obtrusive.

seriously, the pandemic already cost us 5.7 trillion dollars, why not just throw 10 billion at nasal vaccines to speed them up and see what happens. seriously.  I'd take one next week if CDC said it was safe. sniff sniff!


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 31, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Like to see it somewhere mainstream media has blinders.



Here's just a few:



Spoiler












						New Zealand reports first death linked to Pfizer vaccine
					

"This is the first case ... where a death in the days following vaccination has been linked to the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine," the health ministry said.




					www.nbcnews.com
				












						The Latest: Australia getting vaccine in swap with Singapore
					

Australia says it has reached a deal with Singapore to acquire 500,000 doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine next week in return for delivering the same number of shots to Singapore in December




					abcnews.go.com
				












						New Zealand reports first death following Pfizer vaccine shot
					

New Zealand on Monday announced it had recorded its first death linked to Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine after a woman suffered from myocarditis, which is known to be a rare side effect of in…




					thehill.com
				






			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
		





To be fair, didnt see a CNN headine for it.


----------



## Caring1 (Aug 31, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> seriously.  I'd take one next week if CDC said it was safe. sniff sniff!


Turn it into a white powder and see how many snort it up.


----------



## Ahhzz (Aug 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I think its a little disingenuous to categorize them as such. A perfect example that is evident in both the UK and US is Health Care worker were still hesitant before the mandates started to kick in.
> 
> From: American Nurses Association
> View attachment 214839
> ...


I see no explanation of _why_ there is a nurse shortage. I have seen burnout and frustration as possible reasons, but nothing solid. Where did you get your numbers, and did they give a reason why?

As for their reluctance to get vaccinated, without getting political, there are people from all walks of life in most fields, and just because one is able to get a degree in a medical field, for example, that does not eliminate that person's background in faith, race beliefs, sexual orientation, culture, trust in authority, ideology, or even level of common sense. Also, while nurses are well educated for their field, their education requirements are somewhat lower than doctors (for example, a chemistry course in most nursing channels vs organic chemistry courses for pre-med). "These people", as you put it, are also susceptible to misinformation that has been rampant since the early days of the pandemic. I have a wide variety of clientele, some with advanced degrees and patents in their field, who still insisted mid-spring that the pandemic was over and people needed to get back to their lives like normal. "No worse than a flu" still heard right before we got our vaccines in March. Intelligence and even first hand knowledge does not preclude one's ability to be blind to reality.


----------



## Tatty_One (Aug 31, 2021)

@Xzibit  As far as I am aware, there is no legal requirement for healthcare workers in the UK to take the vaccine, there is a mandate for residential social care workers though.  It is also tricky to compare stats relative to this topic between the US and the UK, if only because the UK is on track to reach around 85 - 90% of the adult population vaccinated, I suppose my point being that most of those concerns in your chart would apply to a lot of people out there in the UK including healthcare professionals, but in general even with any concerns most over here have still chosen to take the vaccine.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 31, 2021)

WebMD Huge Number of Hospital Workers Still Unvaccinated​NE: HEALTHCARE WORKERS ARE GETTING VACCINATED, BUT MORE STILL NEED CONVINCING, US SURVEY FINDS​NPR: Hospitals Face A Shortage Of Nurses As COVID Cases Soar​BBC: Covid: Global healthcare workers missing out on jabs​NN: US nurses handed $40k recruitment bonus amid dire worldwide nursing shortage​ToSD: Nurse Shortages in California Reach Crisis Point Amid Delta Variant COVID Surge​


> But burnout isn’t the only thing compounding California’s nursing shortage: The state’s new vaccine mandate for health care workers is already causing headaches for understaffed hospitals before it is even implemented. *Some traveling nurses — who are in high demand nationwide — are turning down California assignments because they don’t want to get vaccinated.*


----------



## Ahhzz (Aug 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> WebMD Huge Number of Hospital Workers Still Unvaccinated​NE: HEALTHCARE WORKERS ARE GETTING VACCINATED, BUT MORE STILL NEED CONVINCING, US SURVEY FINDS​NPR: Hospitals Face A Shortage Of Nurses As COVID Cases Soar​BBC: Covid: Global healthcare workers missing out on jabs​NN: US nurses handed $40k recruitment bonus amid dire worldwide nursing shortage​ToSD: Nurse Shortages in California Reach Crisis Point Amid Delta Variant COVID Surge​


Yup. Burnout. Frustration. Not surprised.


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 31, 2021)

Hi,
Texas hospitals are mandating jabs.
And still they are surprised they are now short handed lol


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 31, 2021)

Piqued my interest in Texas, this Googled it's way up:









						Texas has seen nearly 9,000 COVID-19 deaths since February. All but 43 were unvaccinated people.
					

Preliminary data shows 99.5% of COVID-related deaths in Texas were among unvaccinated people, according to the Department of State Health Services.




					www.texastribune.org
				




Preliminary data:



> Of the 8,787 people who have died in Texas due to COVID-19 since early February, at least 43 were fully vaccinated, the Texas Department of State Health Services said.
> 
> 
> That means 99.5% of people who died due to COVID-19 in Texas from Feb. 8 to July 14 were unvaccinated, while 0.5% were the result of “breakthrough infections,” which DSHS defines as people who contracted the virus two weeks after being fully vaccinated.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 31, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Texas hospitals are mandating jabs.
> And still they are surprised they are now short handed lol



Hi.

A family friend + his father died because his unvaccinated nurse passed COVID19 to him earlier this year months after the vaccine was available for nurses (but not the general public yet). True story. And as I said last time: funerals before the vaccines were available suck. You don't want to have COVID19 spread to anyone else, so you end up having the tiniest of funerals with just a few pictures posted on Facebook.

We have the vaccine now, we can prevent such tragedies. People who go into hospitals are often in a compromised state: their bodies are stressed for various reasons and are physically weaker. Nurses / doctors should have the vaccine especially, to prevent the spread from doctor/nurse to patient.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 31, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Hi.
> 
> A family friend + his father died because his unvaccinated nurse passed COVID19 to him earlier this year months after the vaccine was available for nurses (but not the general public yet). True story. And as I said last time: funerals before the vaccines were available suck. You don't want to have COVID19 spread to anyone else, so you end up having the tiniest of funerals with just a few pictures posted on Facebook.


Civil Suit.  If one can prove transmission happened under their care.



the54thvoid said:


> Piqued my interest in Texas, this Googled it's way up:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Same story plays out


> The agency said nearly 75% of the 43 vaccinated people who died were fighting a *serious underlying condition, such as diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, cancer or chronic lung disease.*
> 
> Additionally, *it said 95% of the 43 vaccinated people who died were 60 or older*, and that a majority of them were white and a majority were men.


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 31, 2021)

Yeah - same as in UK. Most vaxed folk dying are still elderly. Most with other issues.


----------



## LordFarquaad (Aug 31, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Yeah - same as in UK. Most vaxed folk dying are still elderly. Most with other issues.


thats 95% of covid deaths before the vaccine also


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Civil Suit. If one can prove transmission happened under their care.



Because money will bring back the lives of dead people? You can't just sue people to prevent wrongful deaths. But you can spread the vaccine and support vaccine mandates to prevent such deaths in the future.

In any case, I'm sure that wrongful deaths / civil suits are in play, and why free-market hospital systems around the country are beginning to require COVID19 vaccinations for their publicly facing staff. Its not like these orders are coming from the government ya know, its the private hospital systems that have made these declarations.






						Texas Health Resources Initiates Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccine Policy
					






					www.texashealth.org
				




That ain't government. That's a company that made the policy.


----------



## Xzibit (Aug 31, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Because money will bring back the lives of dead people? You can't just sue people to prevent wrongful deaths. But you can spread the vaccine and support vaccine mandates to prevent such deaths in the future.


Well if you know it happened and can prove it. Why not. If you think someone acted irresponsible and caused those deaths wouldn't try'n be worth it?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Aug 31, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Well if you know it happened and can prove it. Why not. If you think someone acted irresponsible and caused those deaths wouldn't try'n be worth it?



I'll bring up the idea to the the grieving mother/wife. It'd be her call ultimately, but she's also a nurse who has dealt with plenty of bullshit malpractice situations before. She'd likely know more about what is, or isn't, within grounds of malpractice / civil suits. EDIT: Maybe. Really, she'd know more about it, if she's already decided and/or decided against, then she'd really know more than me on that front.

In any case: getting COVID19 from your nurse while on another treatment is an exceptionally tragic story. Making sure that the doctors/nurses are vaccinated just makes sense to me, to prevent such tragedies in the future (or if not 100% prevent, at least prevent 60% or whatever the anti-transmission efficacy of the vaccine is)


----------



## Caring1 (Sep 1, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> Yup. Burnout. Frustration. Not surprised.


Experience from my recent stay in the coronary ward is there's a lot of staff that have to quarantine due to close contact, those remaining have to cover shifts, one nurse said she was doing 2.5 shifts straight with no sleep, having a 6 hour break then back on another, it's no wonder they burn out.
My partner recently had surgery too, when she went in they had two Covid wards, less than a week later they had converted seven into covid wards and more positive cases kept arriving.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 1, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> Experience from my recent stay in the coronary ward is there's a lot of staff that have to quarantine due to close contact, those remaining have to cover shifts, one nurse said she was doing 2.5 shifts straight with no sleep, having a 6 hour break then back on another, it's no wonder they burn out.
> My partner recently had surgery too, when she went in they had two Covid wards, less than a week later they had converted seven into covid wards and more positive cases kept arriving.



As much money as nurses make, my friends that are RN's fresh out of college make around 65k a year... base salary... I imagine some of these nurses are pulling triple digit salaries for last year and this year. I know it's rough on them and many have quit, but those that make it, are going to be rich beyond their wildest dreams. I'd rather be poor than have that job though, which is why I didn't major in nursing to begin with, lol


----------



## Ahhzz (Sep 1, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> As much money as nurses make, my friends that are RN's fresh out of college make around 65k a year... base salary... I imagine some of these nurses are pulling triple digit salaries for last year and this year. I know it's rough on them and many have quit, but those that make it, are going to be rich beyond their wildest dreams. I'd rather be poor than have that job though, which is why I didn't major in nursing to begin with, lol


yeah, I do ok as a first responder, and actually always enjoyed the med drills in the military (flopper!! lol), but the stress of dealing with that sort of mess, plus all the rest of the non-emergency crap you have to deal with: no thank you. Good pay, horrible work environment. Got a good friend in CT in anesthesiology, and even her billet is a nightmare.... I'll pass and stick to users who insist that the "Your password has expired!!" emails really are legit, no matter how many emails I send them telling them "Never!!!"   *sigh*


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 1, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> yeah, I do ok as a first responder, and actually always enjoyed the med drills in the military (flopper!! lol), but the stress of dealing with that sort of mess, plus all the rest of the non-emergency crap you have to deal with: no thank you. Good pay, horrible work environment. Got a good friend in CT in anesthesiology, and even her billet is a nightmare.... I'll pass and stick to users who insist that the "Your password has expired!!" emails really are legit, no matter how many emails I send them telling them "Never!!!"   *sigh*



My school I teach at actually makes us change our passwords every 90 days, and they send you an email every day for 15 days in a row when it comes near the 90 day mark. Outside emails though don't make it to your Inbox though, so if I were to go use my personal email right now to mail my work email, it wouldn't go through, I'd never see anything in my Inbox on work email. So I suppose that limits the risk by a ton. 

On topic:  I still think the data will show nasal based vaccines will save the day more so than mRNA needle based vaccines. Especially since the nasal vaccine creates antibodies in the mucus, stopping Covid in its tracks! The needle based vaccines do not create this mucus antibody.

I am a firm believer we need a new warp speed on the nasal vaccine!


----------



## HTC (Sep 1, 2021)

Portugal's vaccination report has just been updated (click for full picture):




- top left --- people with @ least one dose
- top right --- people fully vaccinated: includes people with just one dose that had a previous COVID infection as well as people that took the single dose vaccine
- middle left --- age groups
- middle center --- @ least one dose: people and percentage
- middle right --- fully vaccinated: people and percentage
- bottom left --- doses the country has received
- bottom right --- doses the country has administered

Youngsters aged 12 to 17 have had vaccination weekends dedicated to them and, after 3 weeks, 74% have already taken their 1st dose : 3 weekends ago was dedicated to those aged 16 to 17 and these last 2 weekends were dedicated to those aged 12 to 15. Vaccination scheduled for people aged 18+ were interrupted in these 3 weekends to conduct the youngster's vaccinations, and this was done in preparation to school, in order to try and avoid disrupting classes due to COVID cases: while it isn't a guarantee, it certainly minimizes that risk.

We now have throughout the country a setup where one doesn't need an appointment to get their vaccine: all people need to do is show up @ vaccination centers that have what we call "open house" (not all centers do), and they'll get their vaccination. The only caveat is that, wherever they get the 1st dose is the place they're required to get their 2nd dose. This was not the case until about a month ago or so because one had to be called by Health Services to get their vaccination doses.

Portugal is expecting to be 85% fully vaccinated by September's end, which is almost 1 month ahead of schedule: right now, we're @ 73% fully vaccinated.

Roughly 12.5% of our population can't be vaccinated yet (kids under 12) and roughly 2.5% don't want / are afraid to be vaccinated.


----------



## Tatty_One (Sep 1, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> As much money as nurses make, my friends that are RN's fresh out of college make around 65k a year... base salary... I imagine some of these nurses are pulling triple digit salaries for last year and this year. I know it's rough on them and many have quit, but those that make it, are going to be rich beyond their wildest dreams. I'd rather be poor than have that job though, which is why I didn't major in nursing to begin with, lol


It seems your nurses earn at least double what they do over here, possibly more.  It is estimated over here (through surveys and via medical/healthcare unions) that by the end of this year half of all 55+ (pension age) nursing staff will leave due to a number of factors but mainly around pay and pandemic related, a quarter of under 55's have said they will career change in the next year also, aside from that   before the Pandemic  the NHS was around 50,000 down already for a couple of years at least so they are probably looking to recruit 200,000 more soon......... good luck with that.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 1, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> It seems your nurses earn at least double what they do over here, possibly more.



USA has a nursing shortage *before* COVID19 hit. We've been having to raise prices + set our immigration policy to be extremely friendly towards nurses.

COVID19 has just made that go overdrive. The higher wages are pulling nurses out of retirement and back into work, and we've cut back on regulations allowing for more student nurses to participate in the workforce. Its a temporary measure but... gotta do what we gotta do. Supply / Demand and all that.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 1, 2021)

14-million 1st vaccine doses in August compared to 10-million in July.

+40% vaccine uptick, which is a good sign. Too late for this surge but better late than never. Besides, the winter 2020 surge was worse than summer 2020. I'm a bit of a pessimist on this: I'm betting 2021 winter will be worse than 2021 summer.

All these people getting vaccinated now will be ready for the winter surge.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 2, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> USA has a nursing shortage *before* COVID19 hit. We've been having to raise prices + set our immigration policy to be extremely friendly towards nurses.
> 
> COVID19 has just made that go overdrive. The higher wages are pulling nurses out of retirement and back into work, and we've cut back on regulations allowing for more student nurses to participate in the workforce. Its a temporary measure but... gotta do what we gotta do. Supply / Demand and all that.



American Nurses Association just sent a letter to the Department of Health and Human Services to declare staffing shortages a national crisis.

Maybe it will pop up in the news tomorrow


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 2, 2021)

Give nurses PTSD from Covid, and you reap what you sow, sadly.

Not that we had much of a choice but it is what I think is happening...


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 2, 2021)

This is lounge worthy. Just saying.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 2, 2021)

WHO monitoring new coronavirus variant named Mu
					

Health body says Mu, or B.1.621, first identified in Colombia, has been designated as a variant of interest




					www.theguardian.com
				




New Covid variant called Mu, breaks the vaccine somewhat from what I have read, but less transmissible than Delta.

Now if Delta and Mu have a baby...  we ******

Edit:  Just thought of a neat name for the baby, Demu... so cute!!!! 

hmmm... Tamu? no no no we are gamers Demu sounds kind of like Demo... the long lost art of the love of gaming, those demo's were... before the greedy corporations took them away so we would get burned when we dropped $60 and hated the game anyway...

Demu... what a lovely name...

let's hope no babies...

edit 2:  I wonder how exasperated the54thvoid will be as a mod when he reads my edit... cause the first part was on topic and such... but after the edit... the poor lad!!!


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 2, 2021)

... very....

On a stats note, over 10% of the UK population has tested positive for Covid. 

I wonder how much higher the true figure is, given there are people, like myself, who haven't taken a test. Bad man.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 2, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> ... very....
> 
> On a stats note, over 10% of the UK population has tested positive for Covid.
> 
> I wonder how much higher the true figure is, given there are people, like myself, who haven't taken a test. Bad man.



yeah, with Delta being so easy to catch, and so many people unwilling to get tested even when they get the sniffles for a couple days, my guess is like 60% of the entire world has Covid by now. Those official test positive numbers are so distorted its insane. 

Joe Rogan caught Delta apparently earlier this week, and he took ivermectin and recovered quickly.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 2, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> ... very....
> 
> On a stats note, over 10% of the UK population has tested positive for Covid.
> 
> I wonder how much higher the true figure is, given there are people, like myself, who haven't taken a test. Bad man.



It was estimated at a time that 49% of cases here in the USA went undetected.



lynx29 said:


> Joe Rogan caught Delta apparently earlier this week, and he took ivermectin and recovered quickly.


The reaction was funny. Not that he got covid but how media & socials reacted to him. So many were cheering for him to die just so they can make an example out of him.  Its like the survivability rate escapes them.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 2, 2021)

Ivermectin haa been known to kill Covid since the early days.  Trouble is, thereputic doses are literally poisonous to people.  It's even hard to use in dogs.  Basically only large hoofstock can tolerate it without problems (problems being usually, dying).

Joe is lucky he didn't die from the Ivermectin.  Don't be like Joe.  Self medicating yourself with random medicine intended for big lifestock is fullon, 100% dumbass.


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 2, 2021)

Hi,
Dude here goes by weight 








						Houston doctor treats COVID patients with anti-parasite drug ivermectin, despite FDA warnings
					

Dr. Joseph Varon said he is using the drug in small doses “because it makes a...




					www.houstonchronicle.com


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 2, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Dude here goes by weight
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah.  That's not an effective dose level, so you'll live, but it won't do anything either, and still falls under "I'm going to use a drug not approved for humans under any circumstance" level of stupid.

Ivermectin has been used in lifestock for like, forever.  It's surprisingly well studied and unsurprisingly not at all for people.


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 2, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Yeah.  That's not an effective dose level, so you'll live, but it won't do anything either, and still falls under "I'm going to use a drug *not approved for humans* under any circumstance" level of stupid.


Hi,
I believe you're referring to the four legged animal version.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 2, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> I believe you're referring to the four legged animal version.


The only other version I'm aware of is for head lice, and you aren't supposed to eat it.

Reading up on it, there are some extreme cases of using it in humans to treat river blindness, but I don't think any mamufacturer makes a human version beyond the shampoo.  Could be wrong but...  meh.  You are still playing with fire.  Don't self-medicate.


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 2, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> The only other version I'm aware of is for head lice, and you aren't supposed to eat it.
> 
> Reading up on it, there are some extreme cases of using it in humans to treat river blindness, but I don't think any mamufacturer makes a human version beyond the shampoo.  Could be wrong but...  meh.  You are still playing with fire.  Don't self-medicate.


Hi,
There is a animal version that treats heart worms so yeah you wouldn't want to use that stuff on a human and that doc isn't lol


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 2, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> There is a animal version that treats heart worms so yeah you wouldn't want to use that stuff on a human and that doc isn't lol



I'm just going to leave the FDAs thoughts on this here:









						Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19
					

Using the Drug ivermectin to treat COVID-19 can be dangerous and even lethal. The FDA has not approved the drug for that purpose.




					www.fda.gov


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 2, 2021)

Hi,
With that it say CAN be dangerous not IS dangerous.


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 2, 2021)

I'll clear things up here. Invermectin is used in human subjects. It is approved in the UK for tropical type parasites and scabies.

However, it is not approved for Covid, has no proof it helps, and early research that supported it has been pulled as one of the studies in a meta-analysis posted fraudulent positive data.

It is however the darling drug of those with specific interests against vaccines.


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 2, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> I'll clear things up here. Invermectin is used in human subjects. It is approved in the UK for tropical type parasites and scabies.
> 
> However, it is not approved for Covid, has no proof it helps, and early research that supported it has been pulled as one of the studies in a meta-analysis posted fraudulent positive data.
> 
> It is however the darling drug of those with *specific interests* *against vaccines.*


Hi,
Not saying it's not but some doctors do all that they can to help a patient and if that's bad not sure I'd not want a doctor that didn't think and do that


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 2, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Not saying it's not but *some doctors do all that they can to help a patient* and if that's bad not sure I'd not want a doctor that didn't think and do that



That's fine but they ought to go _through recognised medical channels first and foremost_. Recommending a drug that has not been clinically proven to aid in a treatment is no better than Voodoo (in other words, the placebo effect). 

Also, a fit and strong individual (Joe Rogan) recovering from Covid is to be expected. All this does is to suggest to others that Invermectin works. The same way all shabby 'cures' work on non-lethal outcomes. Take the common cold, it runs its course in about one - two weeks. Folks get ill, start taking Echinacea and then in about ten days, the cold is gone. Wow, that herb worked, they say. No, the cold just ran it's course.

Anyway. I might have to move all of this to the lounge....


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 2, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Dude here goes by weight
> 
> 
> ...



Speaking of weight

*CIDRAP UM - Study: Severe COVID, higher viral loads, immune response linked to obesity*



> "In a population of Military Health System beneficiaries, obesity was strongly correlated with COVID-19 severity, viral load, and antibody response, suggesting the relationship between obesity and COVID-19 severity may be mediated by increased viral load in those with a higher body mass index," the authors concluded.



Start doing more burpees


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 2, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> Speaking of weight
> 
> *CIDRAP UM - Study: Severe COVID, higher viral loads, immune response linked to obesity*
> 
> ...



i was 210 pounds in December 2020.  I'm 193 now.  though I am not losing weight just because of covid, I am doing it so i can get off my high blood pressure medicine. when i weighted 170 i didn't need the medicine at all. and already i have not taken it for a month, and my blood pressure is not to bad. still needs to come down a little, but not as bad as it was at 210.

weight is very important to health... its really sad the CDC has not said a single time that people should try to get to a healthy weight. even if they have, they don't do it during their "prime time white house live events" sad.

TO THE MOON BOYS!


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 2, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> i was 210 pounds in December 2020.  I'm 193 now.  though I am not losing weight just because of covid, I am doing it so i can get off my high blood pressure medicine. when i weighted 170 i didn't need the medicine at all. and already i have not taken it for a month, and my blood pressure is not to bad. still needs to come down a little, but not as bad as it was at 210.
> 
> weight is very important to health... its really sad the CDC has not said a single time that people should try to get to a healthy weight. even if they have, they don't do it during their "prime time white house live events" sad.
> 
> TO THE MOON BOYS!



They don't say anything because of the backlash they will get.  One just happened this week for try'n to market their product

USAT: Salad chain CEO draws backlash over comments about COVID-19 pandemic and obesity​


> Journalists and others on social media criticized Neman’s argument on Wednesday, accusing him of shaming overweight and obese people regardless of their vaccination status. Others called the comments out-of-touch with food that is accessible for low-income individuals and families.


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 2, 2021)

Obesity and Covid are a bad mix - it's been known since early last year. Don't know the precise mechanism but it's likely to do with strain on the heart and how Covid squeezes blood oxygen levels. It's no coincidence obesity and heart disease are also linked. Before Covid hit there was major pressure to make serious headway against our obesity problem (it had overtaken smoking as the biggest cause of preventable death).


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 2, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Obesity and Covid are a bad mix -


Well aware.  Had covid, was obese, was pretty sure for a bit I needed to go to the hospital but stayed away for fear of infection, ironically (I did not know what it was at the time and didn't want to doubleinfect myself).

It's very hard on a heavyset person, and even being in your prime agewise doesn't really make that change.  Being unable to sleep because breathing hurts is not really fun.


----------



## HTC (Sep 5, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *today's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published last Wednesday and Friday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 42423 active cases --- *3236 less --- 462 les*s per day
- 986826 recovered --- 15259 more --- 2180 more per day
- 17798 fatalities --- 77 more --- 11 more per day
- 1047047 confirmed infected --- 12100 more --- 1729 more per day

- 17151291 tests taken --- 248704 more --- 49741 more per day but was last updated September 2nd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 665 hospitalized --- *33 less --- 5 less per day*
- 138 in ICU --- *10 less --- 1 less per day*

Week fatalities decreased slightly VS last week. The R number *decreased* and is now being 0.96 on average. New daily cases decreased noticeably VS last week and hospitalized / ICU numbers have dropped again VS last week.

This weekend Portugal interrupted regular scheduled vaccination again in order to vaccinate youngsters aged 16 to 17 (2nd dose): no word on how it's going but i'd assume about as many as took the 1st dose 4 weekends ago are taking their 2nd this weekend.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 8, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Well aware.  Had covid, was obese, was pretty sure for a bit I needed to go to the hospital but stayed away for fear of infection, ironically (I did not know what it was at the time and didn't want to doubleinfect myself).
> 
> It's very hard on a heavyset person, and even being in your prime agewise doesn't really make that change.  Being unable to sleep because breathing hurts is not really fun.



I know back when the vaccines were still rare, there were debates about how much BMI you needed before you'd get ahead on the priority list. Our state originally was at 30 BMI, which is the definition of obese. But vaccines ran out quickly and then they moved to 40 BMI as the cutoff. I had a few friends around BMI 33 or so who were F5ing to find a vaccine on the webpages, failed to do so, and then suddenly the obese definition changes... "locking them out" for a few weeks more.

Not that "priority" debates matter anymore (we got plenty of vaccine now). But... still good to remember those discussions I guess.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 8, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I know back when the vaccines were still rare, there were debates about how much BMI you needed before you'd get ahead on the priority list. Our state originally was at 30 BMI, which is the definition of obese. But vaccines ran out quickly and then they moved to 40 BMI as the cutoff. I had a few friends around BMI 33 or so who were F5ing to find a vaccine on the webpages, failed to do so, and then suddenly the obese definition changes... "locking them out" for a few weeks more.
> 
> Not that "priority" debates matter anymore (we got plenty of vaccine now). But... still good to remember those discussions I guess.


It was never a debate really for me because I fall pretty far on the obesity scales.

I'm trying to improve that now, it was a wakeup call for sure.

I was infected in 2019 around December-January 2020 (positive antibody test later in the year).  Very early case, certainly no vaccine then.

Pretty sure I caught it from a dude who was coughing up a storm at Jack in the Box...  about as American as it gets.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 8, 2021)

My state's cases have declined. Hospitalization numbers are bouncing around (still bouncing upwards), but... case# and %Positive are tracking clearly downwards at this point. I'm cautiously calling the Case# as "peaked" and that things will pass safely at well under the 1000-hospitalization mark for my state (so no major emergency measures need to happen for this July / August "Delta" peak).

Our vaccination numbers are among the best in the nation. https://governor.maryland.gov/2021/...-announces-95-of-maryland-seniors-vaccinated/





----------

817 hospitalizations is still way too much of an escalation IMO. Despite having so many vaccinated, we still got a big "bump" this past few months. Still though, our case# and test-positive% has been #2 in the nation on a state-wide basis. So we've done well compared to our neighbors. Delta is pretty ridiculous, but high-vaccination rates + masking in public areas (we have high rates of self-masking even outside of mandated areas) has been enough to keep our state's COVID19 numbers under control. (Under 5% positive, fewer than 50-cases per 100k per day, etc. etc.)

800+ hospitalizations is still a problem.





Most cases are in the 30-39 year old category (the "Echo Boomers", so that's the biggest population of our state). In general, people below 40 just haven't been getting vaccinated as much as people above 40, and the case# are making that more evident now.

The death counts in (parenthesis) are confirmed with a positive test result. The death counts with an asterisk** are unconfirmed/untested, but likely COVID19 deaths.


----------



## HTC (Sep 9, 2021)

Our Vaccination Report was published today (click for full picture):



- top left --- people with @ least one dose
- top right --- people fully vaccinated: includes people with just one dose that had a previous COVID infection as well as people that took the single dose vaccine
- middle left --- age groups
- middle center --- @ least one dose: people and percentage
- middle right --- fully vaccinated: people and percentage
- bottom left --- doses the country has received
- bottom right --- doses the country has administered

Youngsters aged 16 to 17 have had this weekend dedicated to them for their 2nd dose. Next weekend and the weekend after is for youngsters 12 to 15: it's their turn to get their 2nd dose.

Portugal is expecting to be 85% fully vaccinated by September's end, which is almost 1 month ahead of schedule: right now, we're @ 78% fully vaccinated.

Roughly 12.5% of our population can't be vaccinated yet (kids under 12) and roughly 2.5% don't want / are afraid to be vaccinated.


----------



## Vayra86 (Sep 9, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Ivermectin haa been known to kill Covid since the early days.  Trouble is, thereputic doses are literally poisonous to people.  It's even hard to use in dogs.  Basically only large hoofstock can tolerate it without problems (problems being usually, dying).
> 
> Joe is lucky he didn't die from the Ivermectin.  Don't be like Joe.  Self medicating yourself with random medicine intended for big lifestock is fullon, 100% dumbass.



Can we PLEASE just let natural selection run its course for once?


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 9, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Can we PLEASE just let natural selection run its course for once?


Yup, the horse med didn't work for him.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/caleb-wallace-anti-mask-freedom-005759054.html3

https://news.yahoo.com/efforts-grow-stamp-parasite-drug-205644850.html


----------



## Final_Fighter (Sep 9, 2021)

Ive been looking at the whole Ivermectin issue different than most people and it may be do to my particular situation. I ran across a good video that talks about Ivermectin in it. what i got from it was that ivermectin isnt curing covid, its "Possibly" helping prevent long term covid symptoms do to it having anti inflammatory property's. i only bring this up because i have long term covid. And before anybody starts accusing me of taking ivermectin, im not. i think people would be foolish to think its going to cure covid, something else i should note is that it seems every time people are taking ivermectin or its being prescribed as in Joes case it was probably also prescribed with steroids, another known decreaser of inflammation. so that throws a wrench into if its effective or not. ivermectin is used for river blindness tho, so it does have a use in people but again, i dont think it cures covid. it would be interesting to see if the people who have taken it WHILE being treated have a less likely hood of developing long term symptoms.

Anyways, here is the video i was talking about. he has his sources in the description.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 9, 2021)

Final_Fighter said:


> Ive been looking at the whole Ivermectin issue different than most people and it may be do to my particular situation. I ran across a good video that talks about Ivermectin in it. what i got from it was that ivermectin isnt curing covid, its "Possibly" helping prevent long term covid symptoms do to it having anti inflammatory property's. i only bring this up because i have long term covid. And before anybody starts accusing me of taking ivermectin, im not. i think people would be foolish to think its going to cure covid, something else i should note is that it seems every time people are taking ivermectin or its being prescribed as in Joes case it was probably also prescribed with steroids, another known decreaser of inflammation. so that throws a wrench into if its effective or not. ivermectin is used for river blindness tho, so it does have a use in people but again, i dont think it cures covid. it would be interesting to see if the people who have taken it WHILE being treated have a less likely hood of developing long term symptoms.
> 
> Anyways, here is the video i was talking about. he has his sources in the description.



I'm not against further studies, but I'm very against self-medication.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 9, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Can we PLEASE just let natural selection run its course for once?


I think that's the issue. Those susceptible to it with a lower chance of survival want demand others to protect them.

Its here to stay just like any other Coronavirus before it.  At some point in your life you will get it and if your Immune System isn't able to fight it off, be it by itself or with help it will run its course especially if you have underlying conditions and are Obese.


----------



## Final_Fighter (Sep 9, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I'm not against further studies, but I'm very against self-medication.


Same here.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 9, 2021)

@Final_Fighter @R-T-B honestly there are some days I think I have long covid, but its not consistent so I have no idea. it's hard for me to know if its just the headaches from my scoliosis or long covid, its been almost a year now so I just don't remember the transition or before periods, memory has gone blank on it. I know my scoliosis did give me headaches before covid, I just don't remember them being this severe.  bleh.  nothing much anyone can do about it.

I agree with both of you on it, problem is CDC/FDA/NIH seem to be so entrenched in certain political talking points, they are not even willing to consider a new trial for Ivermectin, and honestly I think there should be a trial for infusion/drip Vitamin C and Zinc first before Ivermectin. Dr. Rhonda Patrick I think talked with Joe Rogan about this once, and if you take max amount of Vitamin C in pill form daily for a long time, your Vitamin C really doesn't go up all that much, but you do a drip infusion of Vitamin C and its like night and day difference right away. 

I honestly think the infusions of vitamin drips is what helped Joe kick Covid in two days. They need to study that before Ivermectin imo, but it doesn't matter, at end of day they probably won't do either and just keep telling people to get their third and fourth shots.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 9, 2021)

There is a simpler solution than studying this horse med. The simpler solution is to get vaccinated. Prevention rather than treatment.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 9, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> There is a simpler solution than studying this horse med. The simpler solution is to get vaccinated. Prevention rather than treatment.



I mostly agree with you, but there are still a good amount dying (vast majority very old) even being fully vaccinated. It would be interesting to see the vitamin c/zinc infusions on them and if it lowers the number some.


----------



## Vayra86 (Sep 9, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I mostly agree with you, but there are still a good amount dying (vast majority very old) even being fully vaccinated. It would be interesting to see the vitamin c/zinc infusions on them and if it lowers the number some.



I think its Youtube knowledge grasping at straws here. Joe Rogan... He's fun to watch, I admit.

But this is TV. Its time people started to learn what you see on TV ain't real, or if it is, you're getting a soundbite that isn't even halfway fleshed out proper. Its also frighteningly close, again, and open to a million ways to find your favorite conspiracy theory. Oh the evil pharma, keeping us drugged. What was a chip is now just a scheme for money. Yadayadayada

And its all bullshit. The Vitamin C, maxing out your daily pills is just fine, whatever your body doesn't need you leak out again. Basically your body won't be taking more than it needs on vitamins and for most people those pills on a daily dose are precisely a pharma money maker that has very little use, unless you are structurally short on those specific vitamins. What those pills essentially do is funnel money through your mouth and out the bottom somewhere. Its pointless, but if it makes you feel better, hey  But how about 'an apple a day'?

The self regulating systems inside us tend to work much better if we don't worry about them too much, and just try to maintain balance in diet and movement. Its that simple, and if you stick to it you start feeling better. This has nothing to do with Covid, its a general health thing.

Keep in mind, TV needs a daily soundbite to generate that click from you. And that is all this really is. Entertainment, that people have started taking way too seriously. People that somehow think watching TV makes them smarter. The fat guy in front of the TV has just elevated himself to a guy clicking things in front of a screen, and now thinks he's smarter than the rest for clicking things. And apparently for many that is something they like to aspire to, given the vast increase of BS you can find online.

All you need to do is rewind the tape and look at history. Its chock full of nonsense like this, and none of it, well, virtually none of it, has ever stuck for any longer than a few days. Its like new battery technology. If you had to believe the news we'd already have a few hundred new kinds of batteries. Too bad that when you really work out the science, nothing is really worth while. But you can't fit that info in two sentences, so let's just score with the headline it 'might be fantastic'. The reality is the real smart guys already figured all of it out long before, the low hanging fruit is gone.

This topic has been fighting off bullshit like that since the moment it got created, mind. Its like a cancer that feeds off fear and people simply not knowing everything. Meanwhile, since day one AND prior to this pandemic, the only meaningful thing in statistics we can all agree on: vaccination and lockdowns were the biggest influencer of them all, and everything else was margin of error nonsense. It may have worked for a handful, but then again, do you really know or was it all show? We literally have 150 pages of stats underlining that.

To circle this post back on to the topic:









						WHO says Covid misinformation is a major factor driving pandemic around the world
					

A top World Health Organization official said Tuesday that misinformation about Covid-19 and vaccines is keeping people from getting the shots, driving an increase in cases around the world. “In the last four weeks or so, the amount of misinformation that is out there seems to be getting worse...



					www.cnbcafrica.com
				




And to underline how well we're really doing, with all our 'knowledge'... and resistance to vaccination (or just FUD which for many seems enough to distrust common science):

I'm seeing a trend here that still grows until about the first half of this year... the moment countries started vaccinating. Last peak is Delta... but if you plot the severe cases on this, we would have a strong decline now. What's clear is, transmission rate was never influenced by anything other than hard lockdowns, travel restrictions, simply: people not moving too much, and then by vaccinating while they were moving.

Take special note of Africa, low pop density.


----------



## Ahhzz (Sep 9, 2021)

Ok, guys. Spreading a bit from the "Maps-Science-Data" purpose of this thread. Thanks!!


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 9, 2021)

We see most hospitalizations are down, and overall the country's case# per day is also down.

Is this the peak? I've falsely predicted a peak about 2 times by now (I forget the exact number... but... I'm too lazy to reread this thread lol). I'm guessing this is really the peak this time, as hospitalization numbers are in fact coming down.


----------



## Ahhzz (Sep 9, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 216189
> 
> View attachment 216190
> 
> ...


We can only hope... not seeing Louisiana numbers here.


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 9, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> We can only hope... not seeing Louisiana numbers here.


Hi,
Refer to Texas numbers seeing most have evacuated here.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 9, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> We can only hope... not seeing Louisiana numbers here.



Woops. There's too many states to fit in one screenshot. I scrolled down a bit more and took another screenshot for your pleasure.






Louisiana is still suffering from the lingering effects of Hurricane Ida. Apparently, that has reduced the spread of COVID19 (either the testing of COVID19, or really just reduced the number of gatherings?? And truly reducing the spread??)

Really hard for me to say for sure what is going on. But there's the numbers for ya.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I mostly agree with you, but there are still a good amount dying (vast majority very old) even being fully vaccinated.


The percentage of those dying that are fully vaccinated vs the number of fully vaccinated is very, very low.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> The percentage of those dying that are fully vaccinated vs the number of fully vaccinated is very, very low.


The unvaccinated have at least a year head start.  The longer this goes on the less susceptible people they are by attrition be it vaccinated or unvaccinated.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> The unvaccinated have at least a year head start.  The longer this goes on the less susceptible people they are by attrition be it vaccinated or unvaccinated.







We're at about 10 COVID19 deaths/day here in Maryland... and have been for the past week or two. With 100 deaths total among the fully-vaccinated crowd (and with 95% old people vaccinated and 80%+ young people vaccinated), the vaccine's efficacy is proven by our state's data.

We can ignore last year's data and just focus on the deaths occurring today. The unvaccinated are the biggest source of deaths still. Honestly, I was expecting a Simpson's paradox by now, but the data is so overwhelming that its punching through that paradox (so far).


----------



## MxPhenom 216 (Sep 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> It was estimated at a time that 49% of cases here in the USA went undetected.
> 
> 
> The reaction was funny. Not that he got covid but how media & socials reacted to him. So many were cheering for him to die just so they can make an example out of him.  Its like the survivability rate escapes them.


He should sue CNN for saying he was taking "horse de-wormer drug" when his doctor literally prescribed it for him.


----------



## MxPhenom 216 (Sep 10, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> There is a simpler solution than studying this horse med. The simpler solution is to get vaccinated. Prevention rather than treatment.


Its not a horse med. Maybe we should start of with killing off that tid bit of misinformation.

Its been used and researched in humans for a long time. It even received a Nobel peace prize in 2015.

Ivermectin for COVID-19: real-time meta analysis of 63 studies (ivmmeta.com)

This website takes every study released, peer reviewed and puts it all into one compilation website of pure data on pretty much any treatment you want to look at.


----------



## Ahhzz (Sep 10, 2021)

MxPhenom 216 said:


> Its not a horse med. Maybe we should start of with killing off that tid bit of misinformation.
> 
> Its been used and researched in humans for a long time. It even received a Nobel peace prize in 2015.
> 
> Ivermectin for COVID-19: real-time meta analysis of 63 studies (ivmmeta.com)



The drug ivermectin is more than a “horse dewormer.” Its discovery for use in treating parasitic diseases in humans won a Nobel Prize.
But COVID-19 is not a parasitic disease; it’s a viral disease. There is no conclusive evidence that ivermectin is effective in preventing or treating COVID-19 in humans, and there are physical risks in taking it.
The Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization are among public health agencies that warn against taking ivermectin for COVID-19.
Here we are again, having to fight against those who insist the Vaccine is untested, unproved, unapproved, yet insist a parasitic treatment is the Holy Hand Grenade.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

MxPhenom 216 said:


> This website takes every study released, peer reviewed and puts it all into one compilation website of pure data on pretty much any treatment you want to look at.











						Table: Ivermectin Clinical Data | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines
					

Review clinical data on the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.



					www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov
				




This website is from the NIH. I've summarized for another user already, but it seems like you're new to the discussion. So I'll elaborate once more.

Here's the excerpts from the conclusion on each line-item, to speed things up. Feel free to read over the webpage yourself.



> A 5-day course of IVM did not improve time to resolution of symptoms in patients with mild COVID-19.





> A 5-day course of IVM resulted in faster virologic clearance than placebo, but not a faster time to resolution of symptoms (fever, cough, and sore throat). Because time to virologic clearance is not a validated surrogate marker for clinical efficacy, the clinical efficacy of IVM is unknown.





> A 5-day course of IVM in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 did not result in clinical improvement at the end of treatment, and no reduction in mortality was observed.





> Use of IVM did not reduce risk of oxygen requirement, ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or death in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19.





> IVM showed no effect on symptom resolution in patients with mild COVID-19.



Just the first five studies the NIH decided to analyze / summarize. As you can see, the website has many, many, many IVM studies. We have so much information, we're beginning to need meta-analysis tools to really understand what's going on. 

Sure, some studies show IVM effectiveness. But the *vast* majority of respected studies show no improvement. You don't just "pick and choose" the studies that favor your point of view, you need to look at all studies and then make a judgement. Meta-analysis is pretty difficult overall, but very important when we're discussing competing studies.

Any reasonable person looking at the meta-analysis (aka: which studies are strongest? Which studies are weakest? What's the pattern we see across many different studies?) suggests that IVM is *NOT* an effective treatment. And this happens again, and again, and again throughout the analysis. On cases of "Severe" COVID19, on "Mild" cases, in combination with other drugs, in substitution of other drugs / the standard of care (SOC), etc. etc.

The vast majority of studies suggest that IVM does literally nothing for COVID19. After all, IVM is an anti-parasite (scabies / lice) medicine in humans, and horse dewormer for horses. Its original purpose never was for viruses. I'm sure more studies will come in, but there's dozens of high-quality studies on this subject already that fail to prove any efficacy of IVM.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Just the first five studies the NIH decided to analyze / summarize. As you can see, the website has many, many, many IVM studies. We have so much information, we're beginning to need meta-analysis tools to really understand what's going on.
> 
> Sure, some studies show IVM effectiveness. But the *vast* majority of respected studies show no improvement. You don't just "pick and choose" the studies that favor your point of view, you need to look at all studies and then make a judgement. Meta-analysis is pretty difficult overall, but very important when we're discussing competing studies.
> 
> Any reasonable person looking at the meta-analysis (aka: which studies are strongest? Which studies are weakest? What's the pattern we see across many different studies?) suggests that IVM is *NOT* an effective treatment. And this happens again, and again, and again throughout the analysis.



You say any reasonable person yet


			
				NIH COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines said:
			
		

> Recommendation​
> There is insufficient evidence for the COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel (the Panel) to* recommend either for or against* the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19. Results from adequately powered, well-designed, and well-conducted clinical trials are needed to provide more specific, evidence-based guidance on the role of ivermectin in the treatment of COVID-19.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> You say any reasonable person yet



I'm expecting you to read through the webpage, and see the dozens and dozens of studies on this subject.

Studies from Spain, Columbia, India, Mexico have been replicated on this subject. This IVM question is not new: its been getting studied for many months. The fact that so many studies are failing to prove any result what so ever should be discouraging to any IVM fanbois out there.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 10, 2021)

MxPhenom 216 said:


> Its not a horse med.


It's primary use by volume massively is as a horse dewormer, so they aren't wrong just because it's occasionally used in people too.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I'm expecting you to read through the webpage, and see the dozens and dozens of studies on this subject.
> 
> Studies from Spain, Columbia, India, Mexico have been replicated on this subject. This IVM question is not new: its been getting studied for many months. The fact that so many studies are failing to prove any result what so ever should be discouraging to any IVM fanbois out there.



You should tell that to the people at the NIH then.  Your more than willing to site their study list but not their recommendation


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It's primary use by volume massively is as a horse dewormer, so they aren't wrong just because it's occasionally used in people too.











						“Do not take medicine for animals,” Oklahoma stores sold out of horse deworming drug despite FDA warning about consumption
					

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is warning people not to take horse deworming medication to treat COVID-19.




					kfor.com
				




News 4 Oklahoma reports that...



> KFOR contacted 12 Tractor Supply stores around Oklahoma, and they all said Ivermectin was sold out.



People are buying the horse version, in Oklahoma at least. Now either a bunch of horses got worms, or... Oklahoma people have begun to experiment with animal medicine upon themselves.

EDIT: unlike dumbass national hyperventilating media (Rolling Stone wtf is wrong with you??), this is a local news channel reporting about a local condition in Oklahoma. So it has much more trustworthiness IMO. I don't live there, but it seems like this story has been corroborated.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> “Do not take medicine for animals,” Oklahoma stores sold out of horse deworming drug despite FDA warning about consumption
> 
> 
> The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is warning people not to take horse deworming medication to treat COVID-19.
> ...



Stores around my neck of the woods need a "photo of you and your horse" to buy it now.

It's insanity.


----------



## MxPhenom 216 (Sep 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It's primary use by volume massively is as a horse dewormer, so they aren't wrong just because it's occasionally used in people too.



Maybe in the US....


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 10, 2021)

MxPhenom 216 said:


> Maybe in the US....


In the world, I'm fairly certain.  Horses aren't unique to the 1st world, and they use a lot of the stuff.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

MxPhenom 216 said:


> Maybe in the US....



Yes. I'm sorry for having a bias from my home country. But its clear that people in my country are taking the horse-version for themselves. Its the height of stupidity.

There are others who go to the hospital and at least ask for the human-version of the drug. But the "horse dewormer" line is not a hyperbole by any stretch. Its literally happening (according to reliable local news sources)

EDIT: I don't have any problem with scientists experimenting with IVM. We need to study any and all drugs that have a chance at slowing down this pandemic. I just believe that the scientific evidence on this subject is leaning against IVM at the moment. Maybe if a bigger/better/more reliable study comes out later, I'll have more trust in that drug. But for now, its clear people are just hoping for the best and then eating the horse version.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 10, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> The percentage of those dying that are fully vaccinated vs the number of fully vaccinated is very, very low.



I'm pro vaccine, not sure why you are trying to make my statement seem like it is not worthwhile. I only meant in support of those few who are still dying (largely older types), they should be trying vitamin c and zinc infusion imo.

I forget who commented earlier about taking pill vitamin C and peeing it out, but if you listen to the way Dr. Rhonda Patrick described it on the Joe Rogan podcast a few years ago, its not like that at all when it comes to drips/infusions, the body absorbs vitamin C and zinc in different ways, and the fact its not being studied at a higher level is really a shame.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm pro vaccine, not sure why you are trying to make my statement seem like it is not worthwhile. I only meant in support of those few who are still dying (largely older types), they should be trying vitamin c and zinc infusion imo.
> 
> I forget who commented earlier about taking pill vitamin C and peeing it out, but if you listen to the way Dr. Rhonda Patrick described it on the Joe Rogan podcast a few years ago, its not like that at all when it comes to drips/infusions, the body absorbs vitamin C and zinc in different ways, and the fact its not being studied at a higher level is really a shame.











						Vitamin C | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines
					

Read information about vitamin C and COVID-19.



					www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov
				






> A pilot clinical trial in China randomized 56 adults with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit to receive intravenous (IV) vitamin C 24 g per day or placebo for 7 days. The study was terminated early due to a reduction in the number of cases of COVID-19 in China. Overall, the study found no differences between the arms in mortality, the duration of mechanical ventilation, or the change in median sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores. The study reported improvements in oxygenation (as measured by the ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen [PaO2/FiO2]) from baseline to Day 7 in the treatment arm that were statistically greater than those observed in the placebo arm (+20.0 vs. -51.9; P = 0.04).4



You keep pretending that the NIH isn't studying these things. Science is largely in a state of uncertainty. If proof comes out of one of these studies, doctors will absolutely know about it. For now, its just unreliable results on the Vitamin C question.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Vitamin C | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines
> 
> 
> Read information about vitamin C and COVID-19.
> ...



The NIH isn't. That was China studying it, and they terminated the study early without doing it properly due to lack of people with Covid.

So my point still stands. The two studies below that one in the link you provided show intravenous vitamin C does help in non-covid patients, and the Chinese study you just quoted even says it improved oxygen levels. The NIH needs to try different amounts plus combine it with zinc at the same time. So no NIH is not studying, it's China, and China didn't even do it properly and ended it early, so you kind of just proved my point, so thank you I guess.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> The NIH isn't. That was China studying it, and they terminated the study early without doing it properly due to lack of people with Covid.
> 
> So my point still stands. The two studies below that one in the link you provided show intravenous vitamin C does help in non-covid patients, and the Chinese study you just quoted even says it improved oxygen levels. The NIH needs to try different amounts plus combine it with zinc at the same time. So no NIH is not studying, it's China, and China didn't even do it properly and ended it early, so you kind of just proved my point, so thank you I guess.



Did you check Clinical Trials.gov link at the bottom to see what the current studies are?









						Administration of Intravenous Vitamin C in Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) and Decreased Oxygenation - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov
					

Administration of Intravenous Vitamin C in Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) and Decreased Oxygenation - Full Text View.




					clinicaltrials.gov
				




The studies are happening, which is my primary point. The Vitamin C thing doesn't look like its been as well explored as other hot topics. But in any case, we know that:

1. The vaccine works and is safe.

2. Antibody treatment works and grossly lowers death rates.

Which is probably more useful than these vitamin tests will be.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 10, 2021)

The financial incentive to study old or cheap drugs isn't a draw for big pharmaceuticals.  They just prove someone elses drug is useful or something not as profitable which price can be controlled thru exclusivity ie patent.

Most of the studies for already available drugs are going to come from small studies.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> The financial incentive to study old or cheap drugs isn't a draw for big pharmaceuticals.  They just prove someone elses drug is useful or something not as profitable which price can be controlled thru exclusivity ie patent.
> 
> Most of the studies for already available drugs are going to come from small studies.



That's why we don't rely upon the free market for these things. NIH is government-run and uses government money for a reason.

The VA also gets some studies here and there. But NIH is the big one. There were a few other research institutions setup over the years too.

EDIT: Free Market + Patents seem acceptable with regards to mRNA development (or other vaccine development though). I think there's a lot wrong with the patent system, but it clearly pulled through this time.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Did you check Clinical Trials.gov link at the bottom to see what the current studies are?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So basically your saying, screw the old people who get breakthrough covid and still die... alright...

It's literally not that expensive to do intravenous vitamin c and zinc drips... it's worth a try imo.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> So basically your saying, screw the old people who get breakthrough covid and still die... alright...



No. I'm saying dexamethasone and monoclonal antibodies are the best we got, and until someone *proves* that other treatments are better, we should use what is currently considered the best treatment on as many people as possible to save their lives.



> It's literally not that expensive to do intravenous vitamin c and zinc drips... it's worth a try imo.



Its only worth trying *after* someone proves it effective and better than the standard of care. Otherwise, you don't know if you're helping or hurting the patient.

EDIT: We already had a legion of idiots try out the hydroxychloroquine thing last year and hurt themselves (EDIT: Or maybe not "hurt themselves", but they certainly didn't help themselves). Remember? Just trying random drugs doesn't always help. You need to do studies and research first. Once the research is conclusive, then and only then do you move on with changing treatments. And we currently have a legion of idiots trying horse-versions of ivermectin. The typical American is pretty stupid: its immoral to hype snake oil to them.


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## Xzibit (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> No. I'm saying dexamethasone and *monoclonal antibodies* are the best we got, and until someone proves that other treatments are better, we should use what is currently considered the best treatment on as many people as possible to save their lives.



Just so you know



			
				NIH COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines said:
			
		

> Recommendations​
> The COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel (the Panel) recommends using one of the following anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies, listed in alphabetical order, to treat *non hospitalized patients* with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk of clinical progression
> The use of anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies should be considered for patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are hospitalized for a reason *other than COVID-19* if they otherwise meet the EUA criteria for outpatient treatment.
> Anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies *are not currently authorized for use in patients who are hospitalized with severe COVID-19; however, they may be available through expanded access programs for patients who have not developed an antibody response or who are not expected to mount an effective immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection.*


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## Space Lynx (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> No. I'm saying dexamethasone and monoclonal antibodies are the best we got, and until someone *proves* that other treatments are better, we should use what is currently considered the best treatment on as many people as possible to save their lives.



I 100% agree... which is why for the last 15 posts I have said it is a shame CDC/NIH/FDA don't take it seriously and study it... (vitamin c and zinc drips)


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I 100% agree... which is why for the last 15 posts I have said it is a shame CDC/NIH/FDA don't take it seriously and study it... (vitamin c and zinc drips)











						Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)- Using Ascorbic Acid and Zinc Supplementation - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov
					

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)- Using Ascorbic Acid and Zinc Supplementation - Full Text View.




					clinicaltrials.gov
				




There's plenty of studies on this going on.

---------

There's this one that finished: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33576820/



> Intervention: Patients were randomized in a 1:1:1:1 allocation ratio to receive either 10 days of zinc gluconate (50 mg), ascorbic acid (8000 mg), both agents, or standard of care.





> Conclusions and relevance: In this randomized clinical trial of ambulatory patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection, treatment with high-dose zinc gluconate, ascorbic acid, or a combination of the 2 supplements did not significantly decrease the duration of symptoms compared with standard of care.



So we've got a few studies that suggest that Vitamin C / Zinc doesn't help at all.


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## Space Lynx (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)- Using Ascorbic Acid and Zinc Supplementation - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov
> 
> 
> Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)- Using Ascorbic Acid and Zinc Supplementation - Full Text View.
> ...



No... you haven't been listening at all... Dr. Rhonda Patrick explained this over 3 years ago before Covid even existed, these studies all use Oral based implementation, and infusion drips completely alter the amount in the body by a magnitude impossible with oral tablets...


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## the54thvoid (Sep 10, 2021)

I'll back up Lynx in that it's imperative to NOT confuse ascorbic acid via diet and IV use. IV use of Vit C has been shown to have benefits in a range of conditions. I think the issue is muddied because some profiteers and ethical idiots sell oral forms to deliver the same benefit when the science never suported that ingestion method.

But IV use of Vit C has been shown to have benefits in various conditions. Not a cure but a recovery aid.


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## Vayra86 (Sep 10, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> You say any reasonable person yet



Yet what? *No recommendation for* or against. Which means: Apply common sense, which I agree is not all that common in this topic or the internet and all its idiocy.

It only means the evidence is not fully conclusive, which goes for almost all evidence we have gathered on Covid so far. But like most scientific theories we have *extremely strong indicators* saying its not helping, both historical and recent, and they all line up quite well.

So again. Common sense.



the54thvoid said:


> But IV use of Vit C has been shown to have benefits in various conditions. Not a cure but a recovery aid.


Relevance to the topic of curing Covid is zero. And it doesn't change because someone on TV said so. What it does do is provide new ammunition for people to avoid the _necessary_ treatment or prevention.


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## Vayra86 (Sep 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I'm pro vaccine, not sure why you are trying to make my statement seem like it is not worthwhile. I only meant in support of those few who are still dying (largely older types), they should be trying vitamin c and zinc infusion imo.
> 
> I forget who commented earlier about taking pill vitamin C and peeing it out, but if you listen to the way Dr. Rhonda Patrick described it on the Joe Rogan podcast a few years ago, its not like that at all when it comes to drips/infusions, the body absorbs vitamin C and zinc in different ways, and the fact its not being studied at a higher level is really a shame.


I did and its mostly for the timing and exposure of it, its not helping anyone, Joe Rogan or Dr. Rhonda didn't help anyone with this. All it is, is conjecture and FUD. If its so interesting, do some goddamn research already so you can bring more than 'a wild guess'.

All this was is clicky clicky me material, and it serves only themselves. Its a cash machine.

You know what stands out? Every day you come up with a new soundbite on whatever subject and take it for truth or consideration. And the vast majority of it turns out to be plain wrong or misguided. I'd reflect on that, and my earlier response was also an attempt to have you do that. It seems you're very susceptible to someone telling something's true or might be true. And don't get me wrong - its not criticism per say. An open mind can be a great thing - but the internet has so many things to consider, all these open minds are very easily turning into lots of static and unable to filter to the truth and core of a matter.

And thát is what my earlier post was also about. Its a problem we are all dealing with, too. Information overload.



R-T-B said:


> Stores around my neck of the woods need a "photo of you and your horse" to buy it now.
> 
> It's insanity.



Case in point.


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## R-T-B (Sep 10, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Case in point.


To be entirely honest, it may be because of this news article that went viral that stores here are doing it:









						Las Vegas store requires proof-of-horse photo to deter customers seeking ivermectin for COVID-19
					

A store in Las Vegas is requiring any customer who wants to buy ivermectin, a drug primarily intended to treat parasitic worms in animals, to bring a photo with their horse.




					www.yahoo.com
				




But I can say that regardless of the rationale, it's sad it has come to this.


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## the54thvoid (Sep 10, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Yet what? *No recommendation for* or against. Which means: Apply common sense, which I agree is not all that common in this topic or the internet and all its idiocy.
> 
> It only means the evidence is not fully conclusive, which goes for almost all evidence we have gathered on Covid so far. But like most scientific theories we have *extremely strong indicators* saying its not helping, both historical and recent, and they all line up quite well.
> 
> ...



And if a vaccinated person does contract Covid, do we disallow a treatment (Vit C by IV) that has been shown to improve recovery? 

Unlike Ivermectin, it is prudent to allow medicine to be used where robust research has shown benefits. Vit C by IV falls into that category.


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## Vayra86 (Sep 10, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> And if a vaccinated person does contract Covid, do we disallow a treatment (Vit C by IV) that has been shown to improve recovery?
> 
> Unlike Ivermectin, it is prudent to allow medicine to be used where robust research has shown benefits. Vit C by IV falls into that category.



Absolutely true... but how is it relevant to the topic? Are we not already exploring all kinds of treatment for recovery? And is it not ALWAYS recommended to consult a real doctor for it, instead of trying random stuff yourself, as medical background matters?


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## ThrashZone (Sep 10, 2021)

Hi,
Well if on twitter so called fact checkers will take care of that pretty quickly lol


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## Tomgang (Sep 10, 2021)

Today my country (Denmark) has reached a huge milestone in the fight over covid-19.

We are close to 80 % of the entire population over 12 years old to finished vaccination including my myself and covid-19 is no longer considered a critical Disease.

What does that mean?

It means Denmark has as one of the first countries if not the first country in Europe to roll back all restrictions (there are still a few restrictions at the airport, your local doctor and hospital, but else we are pretty much free of them now) and it happened today at midnight. No more social distance or using mask. Using mask is now totally up to the person alone if want to use mask or not. It's no longer something we have to do. Not even in public areas. only at the airport and hospital and a few other places with other sick people it is still needed. BUt else where we are free.

Those that are still in hospital. There are 2/3 of them not vaccinated. So that is really there own fault. The rest are old and/or really sick people, that dosent have a long life back covid or not or people where the vaccine dosent have a good effect on. There are a few where they are not so effective on.

But all in all, we are pretty much back to before the pandemic began. Even the economy is booming like nothing before and we have a layber problem. We simply can't get enough calcified personal in some areas of the economy.

So all I can say is, get your vaccine so all countries can get back to a normal life again. If you are afraid of needles, I can say it really dosent hurt and relax in your mucle if possible. Getting an injection and you dont relax your mucle, it just hurts even more (i know that can be hard for people that has a fear of needles, but it´s the best advice i can give). The worst part is the area after injection can be irritated. First injection I dit not get sick at all. Second one gave me a mild fever and I was a little tired for 1 day. The day after I was back to normal. So no, the vaccine is nothing to fear really. I am saying this as so many has a false mind on the vaccine. There is nothing evil or bad about it. I got the Moderna by the way.









						Denmark lifts all Covid restrictions as vaccinations top 80%
					

Scandinavian country declares it no longer considers coronavirus a ‘socially critical’ disease




					www.google.com


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## Space Lynx (Sep 10, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> I did and its mostly for the timing and exposure of it, its not helping anyone, Joe Rogan or Dr. Rhonda didn't help anyone with this. All it is, is conjecture and FUD. If its so interesting, do some goddamn research already so you can bring more than 'a wild guess'.
> 
> All this was is clicky clicky me material, and it serves only themselves. Its a cash machine.
> 
> ...



You are going to feel like quite the fool if in the future if the right concoction of zinc and vitaminc C infusion ends up stopping majority of breakthrough fully vaccinated covid deaths in the elderly. Because monoclonal antibodies aren't saving everyone who is fully vaccinated who are elderly. That's why science should continually be trying to improve... but if you just want to keep force jabbing people with needles instead of looking at other possibilities and studying them, that's on you not me. I still believe if we had done operation warp speed and given some of that money to nasal vaccine production, the world would look a lot different right now. I am not claiming the infusion will change anything, I am stating it is a shame the higher ups aren't even willing to study it in more detail... and again you have no idea what you are talking about regarding "the timing of Joe Rogan and Dr. Patrick" ummm she backed about infusion science through well articulated argumentation before Covid even existed... 3-5 years ago... I'm sorry you can't handle all the information, but I have been digesting this information for 7+ years watching scientists and such on youtube... and I am confident the nasal vaccine and infusion of a vitamin C and zinc concoction deserved and deserve more attention. I will not apologize for trying to save old people that die that are fully vaccinated and monoclonal antibodies still didn't save them. There is nothing wrong with trying to figure out extra methods to increase survival rates... but again all you and the CDC/FDA want to do is jab people with more needles, guess what? It's not working... if you had been more strategic from the get go as I mentioned several times already in previous posts and warp speed the nasal vaccines, I bet the adoption rate would have been much higher by now. People are much more willing to do a quick flonase type snort vs a needle in the arm, whether you believe it or not. Not to mention stage 1 trials already show the nasal based vaccine create a antibody in the mucus that stops covid in its tracks that the needle based vaccines do not create this specific antibody in the mucus. Lowering transmission rates almost instantly... it's really frustrating the nasal vaccine is not getting the warp speed treatment the mRNA vaccines received.


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## Space Lynx (Sep 10, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Absolutely true... but how is it relevant to the topic? Are we not already exploring all kinds of treatment for recovery? And is it not ALWAYS recommended to consult a real doctor for it, instead of trying random stuff yourself, as medical background matters?



that;s the problem, CDC/FDA/NIH playing to many political games and not wanting to explore this kind of treatment. that's kind of the point of why we are debating right now. nasal based vaccine should be a priority imo. as well as more studies on IV - vit c and zinc


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

Tomgang said:


> Today my country (Denmark) has reached a huge milestone in the fight over covid-19.



You know, my conservative friends were just talking about Denmark and how our country is better because we allow more "choice" than yours. Yes, in the context of this COVID19 pandemic. I'm not trying to stir up shit, just complaining a bit. We "freely choose" on this side of the Atlantic, to have much lower vaccination rates than your country. And we're paying for it. 

Fortunately, my *state* is close to Denmark's vaccination rate. But we have a highway connected to all of these unvaccinated states: we can't close our borders to them, so the virus will continue to run free even as my state (of ~6 million population) vaccinates highly. Only if the other states get their vaccination numbers up do we really have a chance at finishing this pandemic.

Did you ever have to resort to mandates over there? Or was your population basically willing to vaccinate even without the need of the big $$fines$$?


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## Space Lynx (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You know, my conservative friends were just talking about Denmark and how our country is better because we allow more "choice" than yours. Yes, in the context of this COVID19 pandemic. I'm not trying to stir up shit, just complaining a bit. We "freely choose" on this side of the Atlantic, to have much lower vaccination rates than your country. And we're paying for it.
> 
> Fortunately, my *state* is close to Denmark's vaccination rate. But we have a highway connected to all of these unvaccinated states: we can't close our borders to them, so the virus will continue to run free even as my state (of ~6 million population) vaccinates highly. Only if the other states get their vaccination numbers up do we really have a chance at finishing this pandemic.
> 
> Did you ever have to resort to mandates over there? Or was your population basically willing to vaccinate even without the need of the big $$fines$$?



they are only 80% vaccinated. so 20% chose not to get it.  what's your argument here? smaller populated countries are easier to get on the same page... look at every country with universal healthcare. look at their population size compared to ours... same page mentality = direct correlation with population size/landmass

fyi Denmark banned JnJ single shot vaccine.  we didn't ban it here.    you still promote JnJ right? don't tell that to Denmark


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## the54thvoid (Sep 10, 2021)

I do not think Europe has mandated vaccines on the general population. We've not had the same division over the issue as you guys have. Our vaccine dissenters aren't along political lines. And that's not a political jibe, it's a clear difference between continents.


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## Tomgang (Sep 10, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You know, my conservative friends were just talking about Denmark and how our country is better because we allow more "choice" than yours. Yes, in the context of this COVID19 pandemic. I'm not trying to stir up shit, just complaining a bit. We "freely choose" on this side of the Atlantic, to have much lower vaccination rates than your country. And we're paying for it.
> 
> Fortunately, my *state* is close to Denmark's vaccination rate. But we have a highway connected to all of these unvaccinated states: we can't close our borders to them, so the virus will continue to run free even as my state (of ~6 million population) vaccinates highly. Only if the other states get their vaccination numbers up do we really have a chance at finishing this pandemic.
> 
> Did you ever have to resort to mandates over there? Or was your population basically willing to vaccinate even without the need of the big $$fines$$?





dragontamer5788 said:


> You know, my conservative friends were just talking about Denmark and how our country is better because we allow more "choice" than yours. Yes, in the context of this COVID19 pandemic. I'm not trying to stir up shit, just complaining a bit. We "freely choose" on this side of the Atlantic, to have much lower vaccination rates than your country. And we're paying for it.
> 
> Fortunately, my *state* is close to Denmark's vaccination rate. But we have a highway connected to all of these unvaccinated states: we can't close our borders to them, so the virus will continue to run free even as my state (of ~6 million population) vaccinates highly. Only if the other states get their vaccination numbers up do we really have a chance at finishing this pandemic.
> 
> Did you ever have to resort to mandates over there? Or was your population basically willing to vaccinate even without the need of the big $$fines$$?


All the vaccinated people in Denmark. All chose it freely. It was never a forced choise and all can get a vaccine for free. There is all ways those who will never freely be vaccinated. Most of those not vaccinated are immigrants, people simply refuse to get the vaccine or people who has been manipulated or believe in the conspiracy theory about the vaccines. They now have to live with higher risk of a critical Disease or end on the hospital.

There is really not much to do about it. It´s there own choise and they now have to live with the consequences of there choises.

We are where we are now cause Danish people has a strong believe in the goverment and there choises how to handle the pandemic. In gennerel many supports the vaccine. Off cause the govermant made mistakes throw the pandemic.


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## moproblems99 (Sep 10, 2021)

I came back for one more post.

Do you any of you actually believe this vaccine works?  If so, why are you worried about the guy or gal next to you?  You are vaccinated.  Most remotely healthy people have less than 1% change of being hospitalized.  If you have been vaccinated, you even have a 90% reduction in that already low chance, so WTF?

You likely have as much of a chance as being hit and killed by a drunk driver.

If COVID was so dire, why do we let people cross the border and refuse the vaccine?

Now lets talk about stats.

The effects of tobacco killed over 8 million people in 2019, it also probably killed that many in 2020, and this year, 2021.  So, lets say 16 million people dead from tobacco.  Covid on the other hand, has killed 4.5 million people.

4 times as many people have died from smoking (OR OTHER PEOPLE SMOKING) in this span.  Why do we not care about smoking?  Why is it not an existential threat?

How about diabetes?  2.2 million people die each year from complications with high glucose.  So we have an equal number of deaths as covid.  Why are not alarmed?

You know what else?

Both of these conditions are entirely preventable.  People choose to smoke.  People choose to stuff too much food in their mouths (not always).  Why are these choices ok but someone not getting the vaccine isn't?

These are tied together by personal choice.  So why the difference?  Second hand smoke is lethal.  You don't have to even smoke to get killed by it.  They both wreck our health insurance premiums.

So what's the deal?

Do you all agree that these issues are as serious, or more serious in the case of tobacco, that we need a global ban on these products?  Or are fine with millions of people dying each year because of personal choice, or in the case of second hand smoke, someone else's personal choice?


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 10, 2021)

Tomgang said:


> All the vaccinated people in Denmark. All chose it freely. It was never a forced choise and all can get a vaccine for free. There is all ways those who will never freely be vaccinated. Most of those not vaccinated are immigrants, people simply refuse to get the vaccine or people who has been manipulated or believe in the conspiracy theory about the vaccines. They now have to live with higher risk of a critical Disease or end on the hospital.
> 
> There is really not much to do about it. It´s there own choise and they now have to live with the consequences of there choises.
> 
> We are where we are now cause Danish people has a strong believe in the goverment and there choises how to handle the pandemic. In gennerel many supports the vaccine. Off cause the govermant made mistakes throw the pandemic.



I think I'd be fine without mandates here in the USA if we got to 80% vaccination rates across the board. But huge swaths of the country are under 50% vaccinated at best, and its in those local areas that hospitals have become overcrowded.

I don't know where I draw the line personally. But given how much the Delta surge kicked our asses the past two months, it proves that we need to push vaccinations more heavily upon the population. The good news is that all these false cures (hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin) are killing any semblance of argument the anti-vaxxers ever had and making it easier to politically push mandates.

I dunno. Its not like I want to push mandates. But keeping large swathes of our states at 50% vaccinated (or less) is just a recipe for disaster. Something's gotta give, and if the antivaxers are willing to inject themselves with ivermectin... its way harder for me to feel any sympathy for their cries of "not enough testing" on the vaccines.


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## the54thvoid (Sep 10, 2021)

Back tracking to LQ most recent posts. Mine included.

One page worth. Let's all try and stay closer to the stats side.

Thanks.

Edit: I'm not dredging back farther. That'd be akin to an exercise in pedantry. Please, stay on topic moving forward.


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## moproblems99 (Sep 10, 2021)

Might as well get the whole last page as well, no stats there.


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## LFaWolf (Sep 11, 2021)

Just one more post to refute this, mod. You can LQ it if you want.

You actually prove the point of why we have a near vaccine mandate, and why some people want to implement a vaccine passport. Smoking can kill the smoker, and second hand smoke can kill the people around you, yes we agree.  That is why smoking is banned almost everywhere, or you can go smoking far, far away from other people. Or smoke at your own home. Kill yourself but don't kill others.


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## Xzibit (Sep 11, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Just one more post to refute this, mod. You can LQ it if you want.
> 
> You actually prove the point of why we have a near vaccine mandate, and why some people want to implement a vaccine passport. Smoking can kill the smoker, and second hand smoke can kill the people around you, yes we agree.  That is why smoking is banned almost everywhere, or you can go smoking far, far away from other people. Or smoke at your own home. Kill yourself but don't kill others.



Then Delta variant came along


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## the54thvoid (Sep 11, 2021)

Well, Scotland is once again smashing it out of the park.






The bright side being our deaths are now controlled. This is what has to happen to get through this. I'm pro-vaccine and pro-opening up. They work with each other. If you vaccinate and stay away from others, your immunity can wane. It's been shown infection boosts vaccinated immunity, and in that case, (infection after vaccine) deaths remain low. People are still dying unnecessarily by not being vaccinated.

In our country most cases are now in vaccinated people. Deaths, since we began rolling out the vaccine have shown a very obvious trend:


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## 95Viper (Sep 11, 2021)

Stay on topic... and the topic is "Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19"
*Do not* post off topic BS, troll, post F.U.D., thread crap, etc.
Report problems and let the Moderation team handle them, as, we don't need more drama.
The Guidelines/Rules apply to this forum, also.

Have a Good Day.


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## HTC (Sep 13, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published last Wednesday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 37819 active cases --- *4604 less --- 658 less* per day
- 999904 recovered --- 13078 more --- 1868 more per day
- 17861 fatalities --- 63 more --- 9 more per day
- 1055584 confirmed infected --- 8537 more --- 1220 more per day

- 17418955 tests taken --- 267664 more --- 44611 more per day but was last updated September 8th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 569 hospitalized --- *96 less --- 14 less per day*
- 120 in ICU --- *18 less --- 3 less per day*

Week fatalities decreased noticeably VS last week and the average has dropped to single digits for the 1st time in quite a while. The R number *decreased* substantially and is now being 0.87 on average (last updated Friday). New daily cases decreased by roughly 30% VS last week and hospitalized / ICU numbers have dropped again VS last week.

This weekend Portugal interrupted regular scheduled vaccination again in order to vaccinate youngsters aged 12 to 15 (2nd dose): no word on how it's going thus far (a former Portugal's President passed away and they pretty much focused on that).


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 13, 2021)

The USA is in a decline of COVID19 cases overall, but it seems like our "hotspot" has moved. Florida / Texas was our hotspot just a few weeks ago, but now our #1 spot is Tennessee / Kentucky. (Wyoming, Alaska, and Guam are all pretty far away from each other).

So COVID19 is overall declining, but it is rising extremely sharply in some areas. 175 cases/day per 100,000 residents is an infection rate of .175% of the population per day, or roughly 1.2% of the entire population per week. That 175 figure is averaged over the past week as well. Any infection rate that incredibly high is likely to be a gross underestimate (your local testing facilities cannot count that quickly !!).

EDIT: It should be noted that Texas and Florida are among our most populous states #2 and #3 respectively). That -28% in Florida is being multiplied by a huge population factor of 21-million. Tennessee in contrast, is a middle-of-the-road state with 6.8 Million residents.


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 15, 2021)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/09/14/monoclonal-antibodies-shortage/
		


Monoclonal antibodies are being used at incredible amounts right now. So much so, that the current administration is moving to regulate the distribution of this highly effective treatment. The government is also entering very large purchase agreements.



> Late Tuesday, the government announced it had reached agreement to buy another 1.4 million doses from the pharmaceutical company Regeneron for $2.9 billion, or $2,100 per dose. The company said it would start delivering the drugs within the week and supply the vast majority during the final three months of 2021.



Uggggh. To think that 90% of these cases would be avoided with a $20 x2 dose vaccine.

I knew that monoclonal antibodies were effective and expensive. I didn't realize they were $2100 per dose. I'm complaining about some minor car repairs that my mechanic wants me to do, but that pales in comparison with the life-saving drug here.



> Regeneron spokeswoman Alexandra Bowie said it takes four to eight weeks to produce a batch of the medication and the company has ramped up production to try to meet the surge in demand.



Hopefully our COVID19 numbers continue to decline, so that we don't run out of this drug. But the fact that we're running low on this thing is concerning. Our health care system is stressed to the max for sure.


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 15, 2021)

One of the front-page entires to the Washington Post today:





Just the crossing over point of an arbitrary measure. We're now at 0.2% of the entire country being killed by this disease.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/1-in-500-covid-deaths/?itid=hp-top-table-main


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## the54thvoid (Sep 17, 2021)

Could you over'print' english into that graph? It would make it easier to understand. It'll be obvious to you but even to me, I need to look back and forward to your text to make some sense of it.


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## dragontamer5788 (Sep 17, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Could you over'print' english into that graph? It would make it easier to understand. It'll be obvious to you but even to me, I need to look back and forward to your text to make some sense of it.



I've also machine-translated a few things. Please let me know if the translation is nonsense:





Hmmm. I'm not really able to fully understand this yet. But that seems to help...


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## Vayra86 (Sep 17, 2021)

Translated from Dutch - some detailed numbers over July showing efficacy of vaccination out today.


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## Xzibit (Sep 18, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> The bright side being our deaths are now controlled. This is what has to happen to get through this. I'm pro-vaccine and pro-opening up. They work with each other. If you vaccinate and stay away from others, your immunity can wane. It's been shown infection boosts vaccinated immunity, and in that case, (infection after vaccine) deaths remain low. People are still dying unnecessarily by not being vaccinated.
> 
> In our country most cases are now in vaccinated people. Deaths, since we began rolling out the vaccine have shown a very obvious trend:
> 
> View attachment 216393



I was wondering why they didn't break down deaths like they did Cases & Acute Hospitalizations.




Since 05 August 2021 report
39 - Unvaccinated
8 - 1 Dose
132 - 2 Doses

Its starting a similar pattern to Public Health England.


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 18, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> I was wondering why they didn't break down deaths like they did Cases & Acute Hospitalizations.
> 
> View attachment 217337
> Since 05 August 2021 report
> ...



Your clear implication is that vaccinated people are dying more than unvaxed. In absolutes, from that date, that may be true. But you are absolutely putting out numbers without context. So, since 1st August:

131 vaxxed deaths
47 unvaxxed (one dose against delta is about 30% effective, it hardly counts as a vaccine course).

83% of over 16's are double vaccinated. over 16 is pretty much the lowest age for a death in Scotland, bar one or two cases. 47 deaths belong to 17% of the population. Those are *far worse odds* than the 131 deaths from 83% of the population.

I've stated months back, that as the vaccine roll-out progresses, and as scientists have also clearly said, the deaths will predominantly come from the vaccinated group (especially in a country where there is high vaccination rates). Also, given Delta has a hit on efficacy, 15% of fully vaxxed persons are still susceptible to Covid. Of those, some will die. And those are the numbers you are posting.

It would be better statistical analysis to look at a state (try the US) with a very low vaccination rate and look at those deaths. John Hopkins reports this:



> In the 10 states with the lowest vaccination rates, there is an average of about 34 deaths per 1 million residents, and in states with the highest, the average is six deaths per 1 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.



But, I'd like to point out, even in those states with higher deaths, the vaccines are working. 34 deaths per million isn't staggeringly bad.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 18, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Your clear implication is that vaccinated people are dying more than unvaxed. In absolutes, from that date, that may be true. But you are absolutely putting out numbers without context. So, since 1st August:
> 
> 131 vaxxed deaths
> 47 unvaxxed (one dose against delta is about 30% effective, it hardly counts as a vaccine course).
> ...



Now now, careful with your wording mate.  1 shot of pfizer is plenty enough in those who previously had covid and had symptoms and recovered.  plenty of studies show it.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 18, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Your clear implication is that vaccinated people are dying more than unvaxed. In absolutes, from that date, that may be true. But you are absolutely putting out numbers without context. So, since 1st August:



No. I was curious as to the reporting of stats reference to eligibility of population and why the deviance when it came to deaths reporting from the PHS.



the54thvoid said:


> 131 vaxxed deaths
> 47 unvaxxed (one dose against delta is about 30% effective, it hardly counts as a vaccine course).
> 
> 83% of over 16's are double vaccinated. over 16 is pretty much the lowest age for a death in Scotland, bar one or two cases. 47 deaths belong to 17% of the population. Those are *far worse odds* than the 131 deaths from 83% of the population.



That's the same assumption of said % of people being exposed to the virus which is fine but you end up including the unexposed.

With-in the time frame of reports (August 5 - September 2)

Unvaccinated cases
47,994
Death %
0.082

2 Doses Cases
42,034
Death %
0.315


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 18, 2021)

And the majority of unvaccinated people are younger. Deaths will be lower - that's a known quantity for Covid mortality. Of course deaths in the unvaccinated younger population per case will be lower. The populations that are suffering death is the older groups (who are pretty much all vaccinated). But here is the best comparator for what's going on with vaccinations.

Deaths now:

(100% vaccinated groups only)
65+ : 38 weekly deaths

Deaths in the same age group mid Jan 2021 (post Christmas surge where rates were still far lower than today)
65+ : 388 (ten times higher without vaccinations, and apart from a two-day relaxation at Christmas, under strict lockdown)

From that date onwards, we were really good with vaccinations and by late march the deaths in the 65+ age group, many of whom had been vaccinated and before Delta had spread had dropped to just 23 per week.


----------



## Vayra86 (Sep 19, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> No. I was curious as to the reporting of stats reference to eligibility of population and why the deviance when it came to deaths reporting from the PHS.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Check my picture on the last page and it will quickly delete any doubts you have on those numbers. The bottom line is, you're reading them wrong because they're flattened to a single number and that pic explains what's truly happening between age groups and whether or not they've had vaccination.

Also, stats don't readily 'make visible' what kind of situations they actually show us. The pic also serves that purpose: try to translate the little balls that stand out to you in real world situations. One example was given. This provides the necessary framework to actually believe stats for what they really are - fact & common sense based. Anything else we do with it, is our own perspectives coloring the stats in the wrong way. It requires taking a step back and considering how people in different age groups live, what common habits are in terms of travel and lifestyle, and how wealth is divided, that sort of stuff.

Humans also have a lot of problems with relativity when it comes to stats. We need to actively 'think around that', so that's why I posted this.


----------



## Tatty_One (Sep 20, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Now now, careful with your wording mate.  1 shot of pfizer is plenty enough in those who previously had covid and had symptoms and recovered.  plenty of studies show it.


Yep, and there are other studies that also show that if that natural immunity is more than 6 months old and/or you get infected with a different variant that efficacy can be much reduced, both vaccine and natural immunity obviously reduce over time, hence why many concur with what you are saying but still recommend that 2nd jab.


----------



## HTC (Sep 20, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published last Wednesday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 33873 active cases --- *3846 less --- 549 less* per day
- 1010168 recovered --- 10264 more --- 1466 more per day
- 17907 fatalities --- 46 more --- 7 more per day
- 1062048 confirmed infected --- 6464 more --- 923 more per day

- 17940980 tests taken --- 522025 more --- 52203 more per day but was last updated September 18th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 455 hospitalized --- *114 less --- 16 less per day*
- 86 in ICU --- *34 less --- 5 less per day*

Week fatalities decreased noticeably VS last week and the average is in single digits for the 2nd week in a row. The R number *decreased* again and is now 0.83 on average (last updated Friday). New daily cases decreased less than last week but still quite substantially and hospitalized / ICU numbers have dropped sharply VS last week.

This weekend Portugal interrupted regular scheduled vaccination again in order to vaccinate youngsters aged 12 to 15 (2nd dose): roughly 74K more youngsters took their 2nd dose this weekend, or so it was said in the news channels.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 20, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Yep, and there are other studies that also show that if that natural immunity is more than 6 months old and/or you get infected with a different variant that efficacy can be much reduced, both vaccine and natural immunity obviously reduce over time, hence why many concur with what you are saying but still recommend that 2nd jab.



also @dragontamer5788 

I agree with that. I intend to get my second jab still. Just being strategic with my timing.

Also, a question for both of you, are there any stats showing someone who has natural immunity and no jabs dying from it a second time catching it? I am curious about those numbers genuinely I am, but can't find any actual stats from reputable websites. So that stat + another stat, those with natural immunity + one jab, any dead? That's what I want to know. I still think I am safe for now.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 20, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> also @dragontamer5788
> 
> I agree with that. I intend to get my second jab still. Just being strategic with my timing.
> 
> Also, a question for both of you, are there any stats showing someone who has natural immunity and no jabs dying from it a second time catching it? I am curious about those numbers genuinely I am, but can't find any actual stats from reputable websites. So that stat + another stat, those with natural immunity + one jab, any dead? That's what I want to know. I still think I am safe for now.


Actually I read about couple of stories of exactly that - people that thought the previous infection would give them immunity but ended up dying. But as for broader statistical study, I do not know of any.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 21, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Actually I read about couple of stories of exactly that - people that thought the previous infection would give them immunity but ended up dying. But as for broader statistical study, I do not know of any.



Very good, now I need only need know about have any people died that had previous natural immunity, then got one shot, did any of them die...

My theory is that if I get my second shot about 6 months after my first, it will act as a third booster of sorts since i had natural immunity (the rest of you unless 65 or older don't get a 3rd booster so you will be vulnerable at first to the wave that is incoming this winter), so come winter time I am going to be protected way way better than the rest of you when the huge winter spike that is incoming hits... imo Covid is a new beast unlike anything we have ever seen.

By being strategic with the timing of my second shot, I will be much better off than most people. CDC is not a God, and I for one am glad I am utilizing the science of many countries to make my decisions.


----------



## Caring1 (Sep 21, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Just being strategic with my timing.


Some call it procrastinating.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 21, 2021)

Caring1 said:


> Some call it procrastinating.



I honestly think people that got vaccinated 11+ months ago are in trouble, unless you are 65 or older and can get your third shot.  This winter I think we will see an uptick in deaths in fully vaccinated people at younger age ranges, cause mRNA is proving to not be the long term miracle we had hoped it would be. Short term its great, but not long term. 

It will take a strong wave of younger 40-60 year old deaths spiking before they allow the third shot this winter for that age range... so I actually will be sitting in a much safer spot than the rest of you... :/  since my second jab will be prime timed for winter and technically act as my third booster.


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 21, 2021)

LQ'd posts for conjecture on vaccine strategy. I've said it before, use the lounge for open rambling.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 21, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> LQ'd posts for conjecture on vaccine strategy. I've said it before, use the lounge for open rambling.



I'm not sure how post 3808 is LQ worthy, I was requesting Covid Stats.  LAWOLF asked me a question so I responded here, so fair enough on those, but I had a right to respond.  /shrug


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 21, 2021)

Case numbers be going down on the average for the USA in general.

But local numbers are going up in my neighborhood (!!). Hmmmmmm.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 23, 2021)

Hmmm, +1405 cases since yesterday is quite a lot, but daily-fluctuations are very random. Its hard to "spot the trend" (see the Confirmed Cases over time). For now, I'll say that we're probably neutral? Neither going up or down (or at least, very difficult to tell which direction we're going).

The country-level maps are a different story however: the virus has moved from the deep south (Texas/Florida) and is now largely in West Virginia and Ohio, states that are very close to mine. Even if the country is overall declining: our neighbors are probably going to spread the virus towards our state.


----------



## xkm1948 (Sep 24, 2021)

Scientists have found three viruses in bats in Laos that are more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses. Researchers say that parts of their genetic code bolster claims that the virus behind COVID-19 has a natural origin — but their discovery also raises fears that there are numerous coronaviruses with the potential to infect people.









						Closest known relatives of virus behind COVID-19 found in Laos
					

Studies of bats in China and Laos show southeast Asia is a hotspot for potentially dangerous viruses similar to SARS-CoV-2.




					www.nature.com
				





With rapid climate change and deforestation, and most importantly the total anit-science finger pointing / blame shifting way humanity dealt with COVID19, I have very slim hope that next decade will see any improvement in handling potentially a lot more viral spill over event.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 24, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Scientists have found three viruses in bats in Laos that are more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses. Researchers say that parts of their genetic code bolster claims that the virus behind COVID-19 has a natural origin — but their discovery also raises fears that there are numerous coronaviruses with the potential to infect people.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



How do they know this virus was in bats before Covid though? Even Lions at the zoo are testing positive for Covid, its also been found in ice cream. I mean, these bats could have got it just from the craziness of the world, even if it is a little different, doesn't mean they have had it dormant.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> How do they know this virus was in bats before Covid though? Even Lions at the zoo are testing positive for Covid, its also been found in ice cream. I mean, these bats could have got it just from the craziness of the world, even if it is a little different, doesn't mean they have had it dormant.



You know that we have the COVID19 sequence these days, right?



			Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate SARS-CoV-2/hum - Nucleotide - NCBI
		



```
1 cttcccaggt aacaaaccaa ccaactttcg atctcttgta gatctgttct ctaaacgaac
       61 tttaaaatct gtgtggctgt cactcggctg catgcttagt gcactcacgc agtataatta
      121 ataactaatt actgtcgttg acaggacacg agtaactcgt ctatcttctg caggctgctt
      181 acggtttcgt ccgtgttgca gccgatcatc agcacatcta ggtttcgtcc gggtgtgacc
      241 gaaaggtaag atggagagcc ttgtccctgg tttcaacgag aaaacacacg tccaactcag
      301 tttgcctgtt ttacaggttc gcgacgtgct cgtacgtggc tttggagact ccgtggagga
      361 ggtcttatca gaggcacgtc aacatcttaa agatggcact tgtggcttag tagaagttga
      421 aaaaggcgtt ttgcctcaac ttgaacagcc ctatgtgttc atcaaacgtt cggatgctcg
      481 aactgcacct catggtcatg ttatggttga gctggtagca gaactcgaag gcattcagta
      541 cggtcgtagt ggtgagacac ttggtgtcct tgtccctcat gtgggcgaaa taccagtggc
      601 ttaccgcaag gttcttcttc gtaagaacgg taataaagga gctggtggcc atagttacgg
      661 cgccgatcta aagtcatttg acttaggcga cgagcttggc actgatcctt atgaagattt
      721 tcaagaaaac tggaacacta aacatagcag tggtgttacc cgtgaactca tgcgtgagct
      781 taacggaggg gcatacactc gctatgtcga taacaacttc tgtggccctg atggctaccc
      841 tcttgagtgc attaaagacc ttctagcacg tgctggtaaa gcttcatgca ctttgtccga
      901 acaactggac tttattgaca ctaagagggg tgtatactgc tgccgtgaac atgagcatga
      961 aattgcttgg tacacggaac gttctgaaaa gagctatgaa ttgcagacac cttttgaaat
     1021 taaattggca aagaaatttg acaccttcaa tggggaatgt ccaaattttg tatttccctt
     1081 aaattccata atcaagacta ttcaaccaag ggttgaaaag aaaaagcttg atggctttat
     1141 gggtagaatt cgatctgtct atccagttgc gtcaccaaat gaatgcaacc aaatgtgcct
     1201 ttcaactctc atgaagtgtg atcattgtgg tgaaacttca tggcagacgg gcgattttgt
     1261 taaagccact tgcgaatttt gtggcactga gaatttgact aaagaaggtg ccactacttg
     1321 tggttactta ccccaaaatg ctgttgttaa aatttattgt ccagcatgtc acaattcaga
     1381 agtaggacct gagcatagtc ttgccgaata ccataatgaa tctggcttga aaaccattct
     1441 tcgtaagggt ggtcgcacta ttgcctttgg aggctgtgtg ttctcttatg ttggttgcca
     1501 taacaagtgt gcctattggg ttccacgtgc tagcgctaac ataggttgta accatacagg
     1561 tgttgttgga gaaggttccg aaggtcttaa tgacaacctt cttgaaatac tccaaaaaga
     1621 gaaagtcaac atcaatattg ttggtgactt taaacttaat gaagagatcg ccattatttt
     1681 ggcatctttt tctgcttcca caagtgcttt tgtggaaact gtgaaaggtt tggattataa
     1741 agcattcaaa caaattgttg aatcctgtgg taattttaaa gttacaaaag gaaaagctaa
     1801 aaaaggtgcc tggaatattg gtgaacagaa atcaatactg agtcctcttt atgcatttgc
     1861 atcagaggct gctcgtgttg tacgatcaat tttctcccgc actcttgaaa ctgctcaaaa

... (etc. etc.)
```

Etc. etc. The sequence will only line up if they're from the same lineage. Same technology as DNA-sequencing, except RNA-based because this virus's "code" is RNA.

EDIT: And my understanding is that the code that does this is basically "Perl Regexes" and "diff", that computer programmers are very familiar with. Longest common subsequence, ya know? The same thing that generates Wikipedia diffs (Ex: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=COVID-19&type=revision&diff=1046085604&oldid=1038135202) is used for tracking changes / mutations in RNA sequences.


----------



## Xzibit (Sep 24, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Scientists have found three viruses in bats in Laos that are more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses. Researchers say that parts of their genetic code bolster claims that the virus behind COVID-19 has a natural origin — but their discovery also raises fears that there are numerous coronaviruses with the potential to infect people.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



They also said earlier this year



> Even before the outbreak started, *the Wuhan Institute had studied one whose genetic code is 96% identical to SARS-CoV-2*. That’s as good a match as the “missing link” found for the original SARS.


----------



## HTC (Sep 24, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> They also said earlier this year





> Even before the outbreak started, *the Wuhan Institute had studied one whose genetic code is 96% identical to SARS-CoV-2*. That’s as good a match as the “missing link” found for the original SARS.



Wasn't the difference between human DNA and the closest chimp DNA just 2 percent?

Perhaps @xkm1948 can shed some light on this because, if so, then those 4% difference to SARS-CoV-2 is "almost a world of difference".


----------



## xkm1948 (Sep 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> How do they know this virus was in bats before Covid though? Even Lions at the zoo are testing positive for Covid, its also been found in ice cream. I mean, these bats could have got it just from the craziness of the world, even if it is a little different, doesn't mean they have had it dormant.




molecular clock. RNA and DNA mutate at a given rate, We already have a vast amount of full genome COVID19 data. By comparing sequence differences we can determine which are ancestral strain and which are later strain.


To HTC,

For simpler genome like COVID19 which only has 29 thousand basepairs, you can do simple alignment and call the difference.

Eukarotic animals such as us, you cannot do simple DNA base-pair difference alignment. We are multi-cellular, 6 billion backstairs genome. There are a lot of regulation of gene expression involved that give rise to phenotypic differences between human and chimp.



Bacteria ATP synthase, that one that takes proton gradient that makes energy you need






Now the same protein coded by the human version of gene


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 24, 2021)

If I'm correct, @xkm1948  is literally a genetic scientist. They know what they're talking about.


----------



## xkm1948 (Sep 24, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> If I'm correct, @xkm1948  is literally a genetic scientist. They know what they're talking about.




Thx. We are but just scratching the surface of molecular genetics, despite all the progress we still know so little.

I am staying out of this thread going forward. Too much work already and science communication to general public is really not my strong point.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 25, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> With rapid climate change and deforestation, and most importantly the total anit-science finger pointing / blame shifting way humanity dealt with COVID19, I have very slim hope that next decade will see any improvement in handling potentially a lot more viral spill over event.


I'm worried about the global warming denial at the moment and all the viruses we know are frozen in the ice sheet/glaciers from prehistory.  Stuff we have no immunity to.  It's all coming out to play with us now.



xkm1948 said:


> I am staying out of this thread going forward. Too much work already and science communication to general public is really not my strong point.


Appreciate the insight all the same.  Keep up the good work.


----------



## HTC (Sep 27, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.




The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 31535 active cases --- *2338 less --- 334 less* per day
- 1017456 recovered --- 7288 more --- 1041 more per day
- 17954 fatalities --- 47 more --- 7 more per day
- 1066945 confirmed infected --- 4897 more --- 700 more per day

- 18248783 tests taken --- 307803 more --- 61561 more per day but was last updated September 23rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 415 hospitalized --- *40 less --- 6 less per day*
- 83 in ICU --- *3 less --- less than 1 per day*

Week fatalities decreased slightly VS last week and the average is in single digits for the 3rd week in a row. The R number didn't budge and remains @ 0.83 on average (last updated Friday). New daily cases decreased less than last week but still quite substantially and hospitalized / ICU numbers have dropped slightly VS last week.


----------



## Tatty_One (Sep 27, 2021)

HTC said:


> Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.
> 
> View attachment 218361View attachment 218362View attachment 218363View attachment 218364View attachment 218365View attachment 218366View attachment 218367View attachment 218368
> 
> ...


It looks like you are hopefully seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.


----------



## HTC (Sep 27, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> It looks like you are hopefully seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.



We could already see the light @ the end of the tunnel since a while ago ... but the exit was still so far away ...

Now the light is close ... very close ...


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 27, 2021)

HTC said:


> We could already see the light @ the end of the tunnel since a while ago ... but the exit was still so far away ...
> 
> Now the light is close ... very close ...



Until the vaccines start to wear off though no?  Especially for 70+ age range.


----------



## HTC (Sep 27, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Until the vaccines start to wear off though no?  Especially for 70+ age range.



Not enough information about that, as of yet: more time is needed.

We'll be using our mass-vaccination centers to administer "regular" flu vaccines now: it's priority is ahead of any potential C-19 booster shot, according to our Government.


----------



## Tatty_One (Sep 27, 2021)

We have already started giving Pfizer booster jabs starting with the elderly as they were the first to receive their 2nd jabs and some of them had those 2nd jabs as early as January/February, there are some who have ended up in hospital from that group as their immune responses are naturally weak in any case although all 50+ will get a booster if the want it at the 6 month point from 2nd jab so I should be offered mine at the beginning of November.


----------



## HTC (Sep 27, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> We have already started giving Pfizer booster jabs *starting with the elderly as they were the first to receive their 2nd jabs and some of them had those 2nd jabs as early as January/February*, there are some who have ended up in hospital from that group as their immune responses are naturally weak in any case although *all 50+ will get a booster if the want it at the 6 month point from 2nd jab so I should be offered mine at the beginning of November.*



Both of my parents are in the 70+ age group and they received their 2nd dose in early July so, if it turns out they'll be needing a boost, they should get it in early January, @ best.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 28, 2021)

Alaska's numbers go crazy, but for the most part, America is looking fine! Declines almost across the board.


----------



## HTC (Sep 29, 2021)

Our Vaccination Report was published today:





- top left --- people with @ least one dose
- top right --- people fully vaccinated: includes people with just one dose that had a previous COVID infection as well as people that took the single dose vaccine
- middle left --- age groups
- middle center --- @ least one dose: people and percentage
- middle right --- fully vaccinated: people and percentage
- bottom left --- doses the country has received
- bottom right --- doses the country has administered


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 29, 2021)

HTC said:


> Our Vaccination Report was published today:
> 
> View attachment 218604
> 
> ...



with those kind of doses, I am surprised there are any deaths at all... those are great numbers.

New Zealand is only at 37% fully vaccinated... wow... so slow. I think they are in lockdown again right now, not sure.


----------



## HTC (Sep 29, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> with those kind of doses, I am surprised there are any deaths at all... those are great numbers.



Yesterday, we had 1 fatality, but today we had 7.

@ 1st we had a politician in charge of the vaccination but ... shall we say ... stuff happened ... and he was replaced by a rear admiral, and this man rose to the occasion and did a FANTASTIC JOB, despite Portugal having to wait for vaccines on several occasions, or he would have done an even better job.

Portugal is number ONE in the World of people fully vaccinated: https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/23/portugal-has-the-highest-covid-19-vaccination-rate-in-the-world

Pictured in the link is the rear admiral i referred to above.

I'm honestly quite shocked by this!!!


----------



## Tatty_One (Sep 29, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> *with those kind of doses, I am surprised there are any deaths at all*... those are great numbers.
> 
> New Zealand is only at 37% fully vaccinated... wow... so slow. I think they are in lockdown again right now, not sure.


Efficacy? There are small variations in what is thought to be the efficacy against the delta variant but lets say the Pfizer vaccine has 76 - 79% efficacy, that leaves you with more than 20% of the vaccinated population that _may, _if they get infected be at risk of serious illness and/or die.  In reality across all the vaccines available in the UK the performance is better however.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 29, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Efficacy? There are small variations in what is thought to be the efficacy against the delta variant but lets say the Pfizer vaccine has 76 - 79% efficacy, that leaves you with more than 20% of the vaccinated population that _may, _if they get infected be at risk of serious illness and/or die.  In reality across all the vaccines available in the UK the performance is better however.



I guess Joe Rogan was right then, people need to start exercising and taking better care of their bodies, cause at end of the day you never know if you will be one of those 20-30% unlucky ones even if vaccinated.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 29, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I guess Joe Rogan was right then, people need to start exercising and taking better care of their bodies


Well *I* could have told you that, without a side of Ivermectin.  It isn't really some revelation that a healthy fit body is better for fighting diseases than a poor health one.


----------



## Tatty_One (Sep 29, 2021)

Being fit and healthy obviously helps and should be encouraged where it is physically possible, however let's not forget that those that fall into that category can still get seriously ill and die, albeit generally perhaps in lesser numbers, there is a degree of randomness with this virus (well there appears to be) that may be as much about genetics as it is health.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 29, 2021)

Tatty_One said:


> Being fit and healthy obviously helps and should be encouraged where it is physically possible, however let's not forget that those that fall into that category can still get seriously ill and die, albeit generally perhaps in lesser numbers, there is a degree of randomness with this virus (well there appears to be) that may be as much about genetics as it is health.


Absolutely.  I was just replying to the idea that Joe had any kind of actual revelation there:  not so much.  It's actually if anything, just common sense, but hardly a guarantee.


----------



## the54thvoid (Sep 29, 2021)

Finally, some stats about young folk, vaccine status and hospitilisation*.









						Covid in Scotland: Latest ICU patients 'largely unvaccinated and young'
					

One ICU consultant tells BBC Scotland he is treating "very young, usually fit and extremely sick" people.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				








I've kept in the proviso about who is in hospital for transparency.

*Hospitalisation is a really hard word to spell after a beer and some whisky. And FTR, when I finally become a Covid statistic, I want it to be known my love of alcohol had nothing to do with my weakened immune system.


----------



## Steevo (Sep 29, 2021)

75-78 percent of new hospital cases are vaccinated in populations with 50+ percent vaccination rates.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 29, 2021)

Steevo said:


> 75-78 percent of new hospital cases are vaccinated in populations with 50+ percent vaccination rates.


Source?


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## the54thvoid (Sep 29, 2021)

Steevo said:


> 75-78 percent of new hospital cases are vaccinated in populations with 50+ percent vaccination rates.



Yeah, not what we're seeing here.



			https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016465/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_36.pdf
		






And the deaths:


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## Steevo (Sep 29, 2021)

What Does It Really Mean When a Headline Says “75 Percent of Cases Occurred in Vaccinated People”?
					

A simple math trick to calm your panic.




					slate.com
				




Australia just released their own study where 78% of new hospitalization patients were fully vaccinated and 17 (% or individuals, unclear) were partially vaccinated.


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## the54thvoid (Sep 29, 2021)

Steevo said:


> What Does It Really Mean When a Headline Says “75 Percent of Cases Occurred in Vaccinated People”?
> 
> 
> A simple math trick to calm your panic.
> ...



From your source:

In fact, a statement like “75 percent of new cases are among the vaccinated” is almost totally meaningless.

And this:

In other words, if you are unvaccinated in this extreme hypothetical, the odds are 33 times worse for you even though most cases are in the vaccinated group.

And finally this:

But I hope it helps you become properly suspicious of any headline that declares “X of the cases are among the vaccinated.” Whenever you see headlines like this, ask what the vaccination rate is. And then, do some arithmetic.


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## Ahhzz (Sep 29, 2021)

Steevo said:


> What Does It Really Mean When a Headline Says “75 Percent of Cases Occurred in Vaccinated People”?
> 
> 
> A simple math trick to calm your panic.
> ...


Yup. the pertinent portion of that article below:
_
All you need is a little high school arithmetic to calculate the odds. The total number of unvaccinated people in our hypothetical population is 200,000 (1 percent of 20 million). So the odds of getting sick if you were unvaccinated are 50,000 divided by 200,000. That’s 1 in 4—or 25 percent.

But if you are vaccinated, the odds are 150,000 divided by 19,800,000. That’s a bit less than 1 percent (about three-quarters of a percent if you do the calculation)._


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## Steevo (Sep 29, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> From your source:
> 
> In fact, a statement like “75 percent of new cases are among the vaccinated” is almost totally meaningless.
> 
> ...




By statistics unless you are over 50 and under 70 with comorbidity getting the vaccine does literally nothing for you statistically speaking. By statistics once we eliminate those with comorbidities under 50 getting the vaccine does nothing for anyone. 

Statistics are being manipulated here, and a good friend is a nurse on the Covid Floor, people dying of cancer with Covid are still being counted as Covid, people dying of liver failure form alcohol abuse are being counted as Covid, people dying of COPD and Asthma from years of smoking are counted as Covid deaths. 

Nothing against them, but statistics can be manipulated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics









						Ice cream and crime: Where cold cuisine and hot disputes intersect
					

july-fourth-mount-vernon-ice-cream.jpg




					www.nola.com
				





Should we ban Ice Cream in Chicago to prevent gun deaths?


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## R-T-B (Sep 29, 2021)

Steevo said:


> By statistics unless you are over 50 and under 70 with comorbidity getting the vaccine does literally nothing for you statistically speaking.


You're really going to have to use citations for a bold claim like that.  I've never seen any data supporting a claim like that (I have however seen data suggesting the opposite).

Also: My brother was exposed to COVID this weekend and thankfully did not catch it.  I know this is ancedotal but I credit the vaccine.  My brother is healthy and in his 20s, and was in a group with a maskless person who later ended up having COVID. He was not infected.  Test kit came back negative.



Steevo said:


> Statistics are being manipulated here, and a good friend is a nurse on the Covid Floor, people dying of cancer with Covid are still being counted as Covid


That's usually because they'd still be here fighting cancer if not for COVID.  That's how comorbities work.  They died of COVID, all the same.

I mean, this is a stats thread.  Don't just drop one liners you can't support, or contextless information in hopes we don't look further.  THAT is misuse of statistics.


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## Ahhzz (Sep 29, 2021)

Steevo said:


> By statistics unless you are over 50 and under 70 with comorbidity getting the vaccine does literally nothing for you statistically speaking. By statistics once we eliminate those with comorbidities under 50 getting the vaccine does nothing for anyone.
> 
> Statistics are being manipulated here, and a good friend is a nurse on the Covid Floor, people dying of cancer with Covid are still being counted as Covid, people dying of liver failure form alcohol abuse are being counted as Covid, people dying of COPD and Asthma from years of smoking are counted as Covid deaths.
> 
> ...


This is an old discussion. The process of marking people who likely would _not_ have died when they did had they _not _contracted (for instance) COVID, as COVID deaths because they contracted COVID _while_ _also_ having additional conditions is common practice in the medical field.


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## Steevo (Sep 29, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> You're really going to have to use citations for a bold claim like that.
> 
> My brother was exposed to COVID this weekend and thankfully did not catch it.  I know this is ancedotal but I credit the vaccine.  My brother is healthy and in his 20s, and was in a group with a maskless person who later ended up having COVID.
> 
> ...








						Conditions Contributing to COVID-19 Deaths, by State and Age, Provisional 2020-2022 | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
					






					data.cdc.gov
				




You get to make all the graphs and charts you like, and yes, some things aren't called out specifically, so some associative thinking is required. 









						Fact check: 94% of individuals with additional causes of death still had COVID-19
					

Shared thousands of times on Facebook, posts claim that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) “quietly updated” its COVID-19 data “to admit that only 6% of all the 153,504 (U.S.) deaths recorded actually died from (COVID-19).” According to the posts, the CDC...




					www.reuters.com
				




Even Reuters admits at the time of the article being written only 6% of the Covid deaths were single illness deaths, the rest had serious complications. 






						Conditions Contributing to COVID-19 Deaths, by State and Age, Provisional 2020-2022 | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
					

This dataset shows health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by age group and jurisdiction of occurrence.  2021-2022 data are provisional. Estimates for 2020 are based on final data.




					data.cdc.gov
				




Also the flu seemed to get a lot deadlier for the young and less deadly for the older.






						Burden Estimates for the 2016-2017 Influenza Season | CDC
					

These page includes information about the estimated burden of influenza from past seasons, including tables of the estimated influenza disease burden (and 95% credible interval [Cr I]) by age group.




					www.cdc.gov
				









						Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2019–2020 Flu Season | CDC
					

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.




					www.cdc.gov
				




A lot to look into, a lot to have personal opinions about, a lot of data that needs a lot of clarification.


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## claes (Sep 29, 2021)

The fact that professional athletes in their early 20s who caught Covid need to use inhalers to continue to play sports should be enough to squash this stupidity. Yes, there can be co-morbidities in Covid statistics, but all that says is that Covid can take someone who probably would have lived with some health issue and then killed them.









						Jayson Tatum the latest reminder of COVID's impact on young athletes
					

Maybe if you see Tatum averaging a career-high 25.9 points per game this season while being named an All-Star for the second straight season, it's not a big deal. But it is a big deal.




					sports.yahoo.com
				












						Return to Play for Athletes After COVID-19 Infection
					

In October 2020, Kim and colleagues, representing the American College of Cardiology’s Sports and Exercise Council, published recommendations1 for the evaluation of athletes who had tested positive for COVID-19 to ensure safe return to play. The group recommended a tiered approach based on the...




					jamanetwork.com
				












						Inflammatory Heart Disease in Professional Athletes With Prior COVID-19 and Return-to-Play Cardiac Screening
					

This cross-sectional study compiles data from multiple North American professional sports teams to assess the prevalence of detectable inflammatory heart disease in professional athletes with prior coronavirus disease 2019 infection.




					jamanetwork.com
				












						Elite athletes with COVID-19 — Predictors of the course of disease
					

The aim of the study was to identify predictors determining the course of COVID-19 and antibody response in elite athletes.Observational study.Routine medical screening with physical examination, resting ECG, and laboratory tests including antibody response ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


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## R-T-B (Sep 29, 2021)

Steevo said:


> Even Reuters admits at the time of the article being written only 6% of the Covid deaths were single illness deaths, the rest had serious complications.


6% is a far cry from "literally nothing."  Keep in mind, you don't have to die to feel the impact of COVID.  The vaccine globally reduces the odds you will get severely ill in the first place, across all age groups.  This means those that sucessfully beat COVID still could have benefitted from the vaccine by having less symptoms and reducing odds of community spread.



Steevo said:


> a lot to have personal opinions


I disagree.  This is something to leave opinion at the door on.  You seem to have an opinion and are looking for data to support it.  That's not good science.  You should be seeking out data to challenge it, if anything.


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## Xzibit (Sep 29, 2021)

Steevo said:


> Conditions Contributing to COVID-19 Deaths, by State and Age, Provisional 2020-2022 | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
> 
> 
> 
> ...



One interesting note is Vaccination % comparison

47% for seasonal flu
56% for Covid (after 8 months)

People were never going to buy into the vaccination % unless they are coerced through means of making a living


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## R-T-B (Sep 29, 2021)

Xzibit said:


> People were never going to buy into the vaccination % unless they are coerced through means of making a living


I agree as it's been that way every flu season, but you would think threat of severe illness or death would be coercion enough.

Unfortunately, as it's become a public health crisis, less carrot more stick.  I expect that to continue.


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## Steevo (Sep 30, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I agree as it's been that way every flu season, but you would think threat of severe illness or death would be coercion enough.
> 
> Unfortunately, as it's become a public health crisis, less carrot more stick.  I expect that to continue.



Your carrot means nothing to many, your idea that a immunization that has limited proven success as a government mandate tells me that you feel the government is the solution to a problem they created and threats (the stick) mean less as people are held in concentration camps for a virus that has had human site alterations with some form of government approval to infect humans.

The push back from me on immunization is that I have definitive proof that I have the antibodies and don’t and won’t take a immunization that will do nothing for me, wearing masks and all the other propaganda of fear mongering hasn’t prevented it’s spread and the elimination of rights is never the ground to stand on.

I have heard about how I and many others should “just die already” from it and I refuse.

A few athlete players using inhalers is no more consequential to me than their uneducated views on politics and life when they have proven records showing their own fiscal and personal mismanagement of life when they are retired.

Find a new carrot instead of the rotten one dangled as the 15 days to slow the spread that has resulted in economic and life changing atrocities as rights are stripped away from many as the elite do as they please.


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## Xzibit (Sep 30, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I agree as it's been that way every flu season, but *you would think threat of severe illness or death would be coercion enough*.
> 
> Unfortunately, as it's become a public health crisis, *less carrot more stick.  I expect that to continue.*



Survival of the Fittest Immune System

From: CDC








I also expect more Tyrannical policies.


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## 95Viper (Sep 30, 2021)

*Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19* is the topic.
Let's get back on the topic.


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## the54thvoid (Sep 30, 2021)

Deleted all the OT posts. Reply bans given to those who created and prolonged the drama. Don't be offended, you all know how this thread works. The lounge is better suited for such discussion, though rules are still rules.


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## dragontamer5788 (Oct 1, 2021)

Influenza lineage extinction during the COVID-19 pandemic? - Nature Reviews Microbiology
					

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has seen a notable global reduction in influenza cases of both influenza A and B viruses. In particular, the B/Yamagata lineage has not been isolated from April 2020 to August 2021, suggesting that this influenza lineage may have become extinct, which may provide...




					www.nature.com
				




Influenza type B/Yamagata hasn't been seen anywhere in the world since early 2020. This article is starting to raise the question: is Influenza type-B/Yamagata  extinct?

I don't think so. While the last year of lockdowns + COVID19 outcompeting every other freaking virus has been unusual, I'd be surprised if the virus went extinct from this. Maybe its just really, really suppressed somewhere.

Also, note the exponential scale in the graph. That tricked me for a second.





At a minimum: we can see that the Influenza viruses have had a very, very rough time. All flu-viruses samples in 2020 are 1/10th to 1/50th the size of 2019 (and B/Yamagata being at 0%, not found in any samples at all!)

This means that B/Yamagata will probably be not needed in our "cocktail" of flu-vaccines this year. At least, until B/Yamagata returns, there's no point in vaccinating ourselves against it.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 2, 2021)

Yeah, I've still managed to avoid even catching a cold. Possibly because my wife works from home so she's not being exposed to the spectrum of co-workers with kids who tend to spread everything.

In Scotland, our rates are dropping from a stupendous high. I think there is a point we can all accept (for some countrires it will be a while off) where enough people have caught it and enough vaccines have been administered that Covid is no longer a serious danger. Though, just as flu, it'll still kill the vulnerable.


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## ThaiTaffy (Oct 2, 2021)

xkm1948 said:


> Scientists have found three viruses in bats in Laos that are more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses. Researchers say that parts of their genetic code bolster claims that the virus behind COVID-19 has a natural origin — but their discovery also raises fears that there are numerous coronaviruses with the potential to infect people.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Haha this is extremely funny to me as Loas claimed they didn't have any Covid cases when they had no way of knowing as their testing was non existent.


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## ThaiTaffy (Oct 2, 2021)

I've been vaccinated with sinovac so will need a mRNA booster soon but a funny side effect that is appearing here is those with sinovac have a higher resistance to giant Asian hornet stings(murder hornets). I was attacked a few weeks ago and the doctors said a would be in pain for at least a week, 6 hours later I was fine.


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## ThaiTaffy (Oct 2, 2021)

Still have holes thoughView attachment IMG_20211002_155109.jpg


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## HTC (Oct 4, 2021)

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until *yesterday's* numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The main report wasn't publish on September 30th so i used the situation report instead.

- 30367 active cases --- *1168 less --- 167 less* per day
- 1022754 recovered --- 5298 more --- 757 more per day
- 17993 fatalities --- 39 more --- 6 more per day
- 1066945 confirmed infected --- 4169 more --- 596 more per day

- 18640098 tests taken --- 391315 more --- 55902 more per day but was last updated September 30th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 342 hospitalized --- *73 less --- 10 less per day*
- 69 in ICU --- *14 less --- 2 less per day*

Week fatalities decreased again VS last week and the average is in single digits for the 4th week in a row. The R(t) number increased noticeably and now stands @ 0.91 on average (last updated today). New daily cases decreased substantially and hospitalized / ICU numbers have dropped noticeably VS last week.

We've eased a large chunk of restrictions on October 1st but it will take a while before we see it's effects on Portugal's numbers.


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## Vayra86 (Oct 5, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Though, just as flu, it'll still kill the vulnerable.


And that should be acceptable and reduced to 'this is the norm', because we're very prone to keep responding to (irrational) fear with even more measures. Luckily we see a strong push in governments the world over to return to that norm sooner rather than later. Often even too soon - I don't quite see the slippery slope of rights being reduced and then not restored. The long term slippery slope danger here is really something else: our own fear and response to ban any kind of risk. We're doing it ourselves. The mask discussion is the perfect example, it was a people measure applying high risk hospital ratio to daily life.

Vaccinate, maybe boost once a year if you feel like it, and done. Its what was predicted and its what will happen, all we need is time and evolution to do the work. Realistically, anyone who doesn't vaccinate is simply putting itself on the evolutionary list of deletion much earlier than the rest. This 'problem' of misinformation will eventually solve itself.


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## TheLostSwede (Oct 5, 2021)

Looks like the PRC might've keep quiet about the virus for much longer than first thought. 





						NoCookies | The Australian
					






					www.theaustralian.com.au
				











						PCR kit purchases could indicate COVID began in Wuhan as early as May 2019 | Taiwan News | 2021-10-05 20:04:00
					

Researchers at cybersecurity firm Internet 2.0 believe outbreak preceded official Chinese reports | 2021-10-05 20:04:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


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## Ahhzz (Oct 5, 2021)

TheLostSwede said:


> Looks like the PRC might've keep quiet about the virus for much longer than first thought.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


*sigh* wouldn't surprise me. Might also explain some "phantom" cases of people who had symptoms, but we didn't know to look for anything like that, earlier in the year than we initially thought.


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## ThrashZone (Oct 5, 2021)

Ahhzz said:


> *sigh* wouldn't surprise me. Might also explain some "phantom" cases of people who had symptoms, but we didn't know to look for anything like that, earlier in the year than we initially thought.


Hi,
Yeah W.H.O. giving cover for a long time.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 5, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Yeah W.H.O. giving cover for a long time.



That's not how the W.H.O works, especially not in this case. Government's liaise with the organisation and China wasn't doing much liaising with anyone but bats and butchers (wet markets). I know certain people have a hard time believing the W.H.O isn't the enemy but I've said it before; if you want to work with a highly secretive Government, you have to toe-the-line (kind of the same way Western powers coperate with 'bad' actors to maintain stability--or profit--in some regions). But let's not get political and look at the only relevance this article has (and this is a no-shit Sherlock moment) - Covid was on the loose before China acknowledged it. That's what this article is suggesting with 'medium' confidence. I can't believe this surprises anybody. I'll bet Covid was loose in that region months, if not years before the official date.

I'm now LQ'ing these for not being science, data, or stats.


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## the54thvoid (Oct 5, 2021)

I've consulted with the some of the most frequent, recent posters in this thread and as a majority consensus, they agreed this thread has more than served its purpose. Thanks for all the insight, endless graphs, and stastical wizardry.

This is being locked for now but if any major scientific advances occur, PM me and I'll open it back up. The Lounge thread will remain open for now as there are a higher number of contributing posters for that one. However, I can see that being mothballed in the near future as well.

Thanks all.


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