# Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion



## lexluthermiester (Jun 11, 2021)

As this discussion topic keeps coming up in other threads it seemed wise to give this particular aspect of cryptocoins a thread to call home. The focus and scope of this thread is to track the values and market trends of cryptocoins of all varieties. Please limit discussion to that topic focus. Other cryptocoin related discussion likely belongs in the General Cryptocoin Discussion thread. Have fun and let's remember to be friendly and civilized!


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## LFaWolf (Jun 11, 2021)

I did quite a bit of research recently, and from what I can see, crypto is not going away. Ever. It is too late now and it will be here to stay. Too many big players, banks, companies, hedge fund are already in it, and collectively they won't let it fail. The only roadblock would be government intervention but I think it won't derail it completely. Wife asked me to invest 1-2% of the portfolio into crypto when it crashed (she is a green environmentalist, so go figure ), so I did transfer some money and will do so when it crashes. Studying the pattern it seems bitter coin does not drop below $30k so that is probably when I will go in. I only look for 10-15% profit, then I will put a stop sell on it. If it starts dropping again I will sell. In others word, I will be just flipping it, and rinse and repeat. I don't think bitter coin can breach $40k again for several months at least.

This will be a very high risk investment for me, but only 1-2% of my portfolio and I am looking for quick profit. Rinse and repeat. Bitter coin and Ethereum both seem to be on this 10-20% drop and then rebound lately.


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 12, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I did quite a bit of research recently, and from what I can see, crypto is not going away. Ever. It is too late now and it will be here to stay. Too many big players, banks, companies, hedge fund are already in it, and collectively they won't let it fail. The only roadblock would be government intervention but I think it won't derail it completely. Wife asked me to invest 1-2% of the portfolio into crypto when it crashed (she is a green environmentalist, so go figure ), so I did transfer some money and will do so when it crashes. Studying the pattern it seems bitter coin does not drop below $30k so that is probably when I will go in. I only look for 10-15% profit, then I will put a stop sell on it. If it starts dropping again I will sell. In others word, I will be just flipping it, and rinse and repeat. I don't think bitter coin can breach $40k again for several months at least.
> 
> This will be a very high risk investment for me, but only 1-2% of my portfolio and I am looking for quick profit. Rinse and repeat. Bitter coin and Ethereum both seem to be on this 10-20% drop and then rebound lately.



Just a suggestion but, put trend channels on BTC.  If you are going to buy, buy at the bottom of the channel.  Sell at the top.  If it breaks the channel, you know the trend has changed either good or bad and can stop loss if it is declining or hang on if it is rising outside the trend lines.

Short term I think it will fall.  Medium term, I'm thinking it will go higher than now.   Longer term, I think BTC has much further to fall in the next year.  

Short term trend :






Medium term projection :





30 min chart showing BTC at the top of the daily and hourly trend channels drawn above :


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## Liquid Cool (Jun 12, 2021)

RandallFlagg...

Your medium term projection chart....

Has the upper trendline on that channel you've drawn really developed a strong enough secondary point to call that a channel? I'm not seeing it.  Second, this market has fallen to the primary breakout point from late January 2021.  Seems like a normal BTTB, or back to the breakout correction and volume is drying up.  If I was still trading markets, I'd be buying this area for a trade with a stop just below 30k.  It's what happens at the next peak that would matter to me.

From my perspective...twin peaks around 55k and I'd be long gone. Lastly...you're using a 5 wave pattern which usually signifies that you believe were not in just a pullback...or a-b-c correction, correct?  Are you using elliott wave?  If you'd point out which method of analysis you're using it would be easier to follow along.

From my perspective...If we do five waves(in a retest of the lows)..we're truncating the fifth and holding 30k.  Why?  Because the "average complete" decline of BTC has been 48% or so from the very beginning and even in 1929, the first wave of the crash was the same percentage...expecting more than 48% seems a little...much? Perhaps a counter-trend bounce is in order?

Your longer term projection?  I'm very much in agreement.

With all of that said...I am enjoying your posting of charts...please continue to do so.

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 12, 2021)

Liquid Cool said:


> RandallFlagg...
> 
> Your medium term projection chart....
> 
> ...



In this forum, I'm trying to keep it simple.  Yes, that's an Elliott Wave pattern - and it's also a Dow Theory pattern 3 legs down with 2 counter trend moves - implying that this is a large impulsive wave down and not a complete corrective, or to Dow Theory - that this is the primary trend.  

However, I'm not just assuming that it is not an A-B-C corrective, I'm using some other methods mostly revolving around momentum indicators like RSI / MACD.  I've read Rhea's The Dow Theory, and Prechters "The Elliott Wave Principle".   I will say, I don't much care for Prechter's group.  They are kind of a cult, so I take Elliott Waves with a huge grain of salt.  The patterns are fractal but they are also infinite, but some patterns are more common than others and I look for those.

Having said that, the 5-wave impulse is not just an Elliott Wave.  It's also part of Dow Theory.  What's more, if you traded much at all, impulse waves appear all the time at all degrees of trend and they tend to have certain characteristics.   The middle is the strongest part, which can be seen on momentum indicators.  Finding the bottom or top of a 5 wave, is a matter of finding momentum divergences and determining how far from the 50 line they are at various time frames.  

Internals of correctives - nah, I've never seen anyone who could figure those out.  This is where trend channels come in.

My favorite method is very simple and one that Richard Russell put forth on thedowtheory.com   That is simple trend lines, and a break of the trend lines has to be >3% of the total value of whatever it is you're looking at to be meaningful.  That's for longer term investments ofc.  Using their method, a BTC owner would have exited this market in Mid-April at around 55K.  

If I were to use that method here, at this moment the trend line I have on daily is about 38000 so a buy signal would be at 39140, I'd call it >39200.  

And you're right those trend lines may not work out, but I just comment two things.  Trend lines can be redrawn when more information is available, however they provide discipline, which was really my point.  Without a plan, you got nothing but feelings, and as you said in another post the market feeds on people who trade on feelings.  

The other thing is, if you truly draw a trend line 'correctly' then the pattern is usually almost over.  This makes them useless for many people as the trend is about to be broken the moment you can identify it 'correctly'.  

You can, however, use a combination patterns and momentum indicators to identify the important price points, which is what I've tried to do here.  i.e., the "3" or middle is the strongest move, and the expectation is a momentum divergence on the "5" or last wave.

Here's the current trend line chart, I added the slope divergence on RSI / MACD.  

The black line is from the daily chart, the purple trend lines are from hourly  Let's see if those trend lines signify something when they're broken, keeping in mind Russell's 3% rule for the daily.  The lower daily channel is pretty low though


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## lexluthermiester (Jun 12, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Just a suggestion but, put trend channels on BTC.  If you are going to buy, buy at the bottom of the channel.  Sell at the top.  If it breaks the channel, you know the trend has changed either good or bad and can stop loss if it is declining or hang on if it is rising outside the trend lines.
> 
> Short term I think it will fall.  Medium term, I'm thinking it will go higher than now.   Longer term, I think BTC has much further to fall in the next year.
> 
> ...


Yeah, this is what I'm seeing. Trog might be right, prices may very well settle higher than they were 18months ago.


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 12, 2021)

This is at 5 minute scale, it's zoomed in, showing what I believe is a nearly complete 5-wave pattern down on BTC.  

This is more or less what I think the big *daily* chart will look like in the short term, staggering down with less and less downward momentum and then a reversal, upwards 'counter trend' move.   That's the 19-22k target range, though target range is just an educated guess - the momentum divergence and trend lines will tell us when it happens.  All it really needs to do right now is meet or slightly exceed its recent low, to make a complete impulse wave down.


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## mb194dc (Jun 12, 2021)

What fundamentals are there in different crypto to consider? Other than who will buy in after me and be the bag holder?

Can't see the past entire thing simply being a technology obfuscated pyramid scheme. New entrants come via social media and covid stimulus provided the recent catalyst.


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## Liquid Cool (Jun 12, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> if you traded much at all



I was a professional trader for a couple of decades, then I moved on to managing Trusts/Foundations until I retired in 2010.  I'm also familiar with Dow Theory, our office had a subscription to the Letters for quite a few years.  We enjoyed Richards writing, but never used his methods of Analysis.  We had our own in house method which primarily relied on Patterned Analysis & Behavioral Psychology combined with something akin to using cycles...even going there, might be a little over the top for a tech forum.  Although, I will mention none of us used indicators.  

As a previous instructor of Technical Analysis..."Trendlines can be redrawn when more information is available" brought a smile to my face.  Thanks.

I agree with your analysis of Prechter's group...although, the word that came to my mind was...creepy...and while I usually avoid them altogether...I do remember them for their strict adherance to rules.  

I'm an artist type...I don't do well with rules. 

Again, enjoy viewing the charts.  I look forward to seeing the "Pattern" as it unfolds...

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool


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## Outback Bronze (Jun 12, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> put trend channels on BTC



So I would really like to know if your Trendlines could have predicted BTC falling to $3.5K last year and then rocketing to $64K this year. Could your charts have picked that up?

Also, I was Just wondering why you guys are predicting that BTC has no end value? Like saying its a "Bubble" for instance.

I would just like to say this:
I was reading something very interesting one day. It was all about a guy who said that he was trying to promote/talk about BTC at some conferences stipulating that the technology was fantastic and everybody said he was crazy. That was a few years ago now. That same guy was the same person trying to promote the Internet way back in 1995 and the same thing happened. Everybody said he was mad.

Edit: Unsure which thread this belongs in now..??


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## trog100 (Jun 12, 2021)

well bitcoin and eth has just taken a smallish 5% dip.. one that caught me by surprise i wasnt expecting it.. 

eth is doing slightly less well than bitcoin.. altcoins are crashing.. 

are we gonna have another go at going below that 30K level ??.. f-cked if i know but the recent little dip did surprise me.. i was expect it to go higher not lower..

my nicehash mining returns are also  looking pretty abysmal.. he he..

did we peak at 64K ??.. i hope not but maybe we did.. time will tell.. 

trog


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## sepheronx (Jun 12, 2021)

trog100 said:


> well bitcoin and eth has just taken a smallish 5% dip.. one that caught me by surprise i wasnt expecting it..
> 
> eth is doing slightly less well than bitcoin.. altcoins are crashing..
> 
> ...



convert it to USDT and then buy back BTC when it drops further.  I would do that but I have my BTC, ADA and others staked so nothing I can do but accept the dip.


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## trog100 (Jun 12, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> convert it to USDT and then buy back BTC when it drops further.  I would do that but I have my BTC, ADA and others staked so nothing I can do but accept the dip.



i cant be arsed to mess about i just hold what i have and add to my bitcoin stash via nicehash mining.. i do closely follow what is going on and like to think my predictions are as good as any..

i am in it long term and still think long term the only way is up.. short term who knows cos i dont and thats for sure.. he he

trog


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## sepheronx (Jun 12, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i cant be arsed to mess about i just hold what i have and add to my bitcoin stash via nicehash mining.. i do closely follow what is going on and like to think my predictions are as good as any..
> 
> i am in it long term and still think long term the only way is up.. short term who knows cos i dont and thats for sure.. he he
> 
> trog



I just converted what I had into USDT in Nicehash (about $160 CAD from about 5 days mining) and waiting till BTC goes down to about $40K if it does, then I will convert back to BTC as I should get a bit more BTC back.


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## R-T-B (Jun 12, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> I just converted what I had into USDT in Nicehash (about $160 CAD from about 5 days mining) and waiting till BTC goes down to about $40K if it does, then I will convert back to BTC as I should get a bit more BTC back.


I believe USDC may be a better choice in the future.  It's got the same stable coin nature and you earn a small return on it to match inflation, like interest at a bank.


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 12, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> So I would really like to know if your Trendlines could have predicted BTC falling to $3.5K last year and then rocketing to $64K this year. Could your charts have picked that up?
> 
> Also, I was Just wondering why you guys are predicting that BTC has no end value? Like saying its a "Bubble" for instance.
> 
> ...



Trend lines do not tell you price targets, and I never said they did.  They are there to identify a change in trend.  They also tell you where within current trend the price action is, and give you a probability of a downwards move if price is at the top of the trend channel or up if it is at the bottom.  

This is all they do, they don't provide price targets.  You need more sophisticated techniques to find price targets, and I've said before I don't like price targets but they are popular because that is what everyone wants.

I will tell you, my 19-22K price target is based on the 5-wave impulse pattern, where wave 5 = wave 1 in price movement.  I will also say,  5=1 is probably around 20% likely - but it is a lot more likely than anything else.  It also just so happens, that 19-20K is the top of the 2017 BTC market, so you have a natural support line there too.  

But really, all the wave 5 has to do is touch the recent low which is around 34K.   Moreover, wave 5 can and often is = wave 3 in length.  IF that were to happen, BTC would be sub $10000 at the bottom.   

So really what you have, is a 5 wave complete somewhere between about 9K and 34K.   I would say that is about 80%+ probable right now.  That is a big range, you don't tell the market what to do though you let it tell you what it is doing, and trend channels help you interpret that.

This is why you need trend lines, to know when to go long, when to go short, and most importantly - when you are wrong and to minimize losses.  It's that simple.


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## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 12, 2021)

Picked up some more during the dip last night.


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 12, 2021)

Here is the bullish case, daily chart.

The daily trend lines sit around 10-15K at the bottom and ~36k at the top.

The RSI at the bottom, 50 is the midpoint, this is an indicator of momentum.  It has been below 50 for some time, but is trending up meaning less negative momentum.  This is a momentum divergence.  It needs to get above 50 for most of the days it is charting for the market to start going up.  It is currently very near that 50 line, I think it has one more good pop down - probably hitting the purple trend line on the RSI chart - soon and then it will be solidly above 50.  

So I don't think that it will hit the lower trend line on the price chart, but it can.  I think it will find a lot of support around 20K.


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## Mescalamba (Jun 12, 2021)

Market trend. No idea, hopefully up in a week.

Coin value, crypto value is whatever you can buy or sell it for. As anything else on this planet.

Value of stuff is for how much is someone willing to buy it.

If you make a good photo, offer it for 10k USD and someone buys it, then it had at least value of 10k. Same applies to everything.


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## Outback Bronze (Jun 12, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Here is the bullish case, daily chart.



I really appreciate your charts and I am trying to understand them but unfortunately for me I have not been into trading very long (if at all) but I can tell you I think it's going down as I'm seeing less and less buying power with lower highs. I suppose you could say I am short.

Are you a firm believer of the Death Cross that is vastly approaching? It doesn't seem to bode well for BTC history says.

Thanks.


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 13, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> I really appreciate your charts and I am trying to understand them but unfortunately for me I have not been into trading very long (if at all) but I can tell you I think it's going down as I'm seeing less and less buying power with lower highs. I suppose you could say I am short.
> 
> Are you a firm believer of the Death Cross that is vastly approaching? It doesn't seem to bode well for BTC history says.
> 
> Thanks.




The crossing of the 50 and 200 DMA?

Just remember, no market moves in a straight line.  BTC will rally eventually, it might even be from people who are short covering, taking profits, doesn't really matter what starts it though.  A rally will create a small self-reinforcing feedback loop and people will jump in, afraid of 'missing out'. 

As far as price action - yes it is in a downward trend right now but the downward momentum is waning.  i.e. the buyers are slowly gaining traction.  The longer it stays in this price band of 30-37K, the more likely it is to rally. 

Those trend lines I drew, they don't have much life left in them.  Usually the lines are hit 2, 3, or 5 times.  The 1hr trend lines I drew the top has been hit 3 times and the bottom twice.


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## Outback Bronze (Jun 13, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> The crossing of the 50 and 200 DMA?



Yes. Any input or is it all BS?

Thanks again.


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 13, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Yes. Any input or is it all BS?
> 
> Thanks again.



Taken alone I think it is BS.  In fact, most indicators taken alone are BS 

Back test it, look at the NASDAQ for example, with 50 and 200 MA on a daily chart.   Price crossing the 50 and then 200DMA is actually more meaningful.  But the 50 and 200 crossing in a bearish way, that has happened on an uptrend.  

This is the one most people refer to - supposedly it would have saved one from the 2008 crash.  But, a simple rule of selling on a >3% price drop below the 200DMA would have done that too.  

There are 3 death crosses here, two of them would have incurred losses.


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## Outback Bronze (Jun 13, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> There are 3 death crosses here,



And obviously the opposite has occurred. The Golden Cross.


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## Hardcore Games (Jun 13, 2021)

https://www.hardcoregames.ca/2021/06/09/china-arrests-1000-using-bitcoin-et-al/

Not sure if anyone saw this one or not, somebody sent me a link in chinese so I translated it and posted it on my site


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 13, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> And obviously the opposite has occurred. The Golden Cross.



That fails too.  Death cross near a bottom, followed by Golden cross near a top right before a crash, death cross near bottom of that 2nd crash :


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## trog100 (Jun 13, 2021)

weak hands sell their coin.. strong hands collect it at a  bargain price.. i think the market has found a bottom and will go sideways for a while.. a lot of the weak players have already sold not much else for the whales to do except wait..

its all got kind of boring.. 

trog


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## Rithsom (Jun 14, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i think the market has found a bottom and will go sideways for a while.. a lot of the weak players have already sold not much else for the whales to do except wait..



BTC and ETH both increased substantially this evening. In my eyes, their slight horizontal trend of the past month has just been broken. This might be the bounce that some here have predicted.

Also, can someone explain to me what is up with these approximately one-month-long "steps" in the graph of BTC? If crypto really begins to climb within the next couple of days, there'll be yet another "step" in the graph.


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 14, 2021)

A lot of stuff in the news about inflation and the inflation trade, and lumber futures.  The common wisdom is that the inflation trade would include Bitcoin, as inflation tends to take most asset classes up in price / value in nominal (non inflation adjusted price), be that stocks or crypto.

Thought I'd post this image of Lumber futures.  Usually what is in the news is something that already happened.  Lumber futures are actually down about 40% off their recent highs.


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## trog100 (Jun 14, 2021)

well bitcoin is up by nearly 14% on the day.. its now over 40K and looks to be holding.. bitcoin is doing a tad better than eth which is a change from how things have been..

i think we definitely found a bottom around 31K but its a bit early to say what happens next.. 

trog


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## ppn (Jun 14, 2021)

One month steps exactly starting at 26-1, sometimes the run lasts for two months. But once the plateau is reached the only way is down until the true bottom is found. it is a system that exist for the sake of reading signals, and crossing points, it just can't go anywhere and stay there, so what's the point. making winners by making a lot more losers.


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## R-T-B (Jun 15, 2021)

ppn said:


> so what's the point.


Not the topic of this thread.


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## Zach_01 (Jun 15, 2021)

2017-2018
After the ATH of ~20,000$ a decline to around 6,000~6,500$. And the rally begins again breaking bearish trend, and gain over 60% passing 11,000$...


but...



Anything looking familiar to any of you?



I would like to clear that I'm into crypto market the last 3.5+ years, and I do want BTC and other alt coins to hit a new and bigger ATH. But I'm also trying to be realistic. I'm not saying that it would be exactly the same as before. We are in a different time. When human psychology is involved along with big financial interests (that keep growing), literally anything can happen. I like to maintain the ball low though, but its just me.

Just to give you a perspective or maybe food for thought.

I do believe that in the long (maybe very long) term the result will be even more positive (financially) by holding, but I'm not convinced that this time is now.


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 15, 2021)

That's a great post, I wish people would look back and see what markets have actually done and get perspective like that.

This run-up in Bitcoin started in March 2020, peaked in April 2021, to where it is now.  This is after BTC essentially moving sideways for a year and a half after the 2017-2018 runup and crash.

I don't think it is coincidence that this big run-up started with the lockdowns in March 2020.  And I don't think it's coincidence that this is falling as lockdowns end.   As people go back to work they'll stop playing in the casino, and the prices will fall.


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## trog100 (Jun 15, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> That's a great post, I wish people would look back and see what markets have actually done and get perspective like that.
> 
> This run-up in Bitcoin started in March 2020, peaked in April 2021, to where it is now.  This is after BTC essentially moving sideways for a year and a half after the 2017-2018 runup and crash.
> 
> I don't think it is coincidence that this big run-up started with the lockdowns in March 2020.  And I don't think it's coincidence that this is falling as lockdowns end.   As people go back to work they'll stop playing in the casino, and the prices will fall.



so randall you are predicting a fall back to around 20K.. a couple of years in the doldrums and then another run up to 200K or so.. 

trog


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 15, 2021)

trog100 said:


> so randall you are predicting a fall back to around 20K.. a couple of years in the doldrums and then another run up to 200K or so..
> 
> trog



I actually don't like price target predictions, but that is all that people want.  The market usually tells you what it is about to do at any given moment - go up or down - determining how much is a fools game.  Like I said in previous post, ~20K would be under 20% probability even if I have identified the pattern correctly, which is not certain.

But yes, I think you will see 20K before you see 65K.  You may never see 65K again, it's not like there is anything there with BTC.  You could just as well be trading in digital images of ponys.  But as you say, it depends on what people are willing to pay.


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## trog100 (Jun 15, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> I actually don't like price target predictions, but that is all that people want.  The market usually tells you what it is about to do at any given moment - go up or down - determining how much is a fools game.  Like I said in previous post, ~20K would be under 20% probability even if I have identified the pattern correctly, which is not certain.
> 
> But yes, I think you will see 20K before you see 65K.  You may never see 65K again, it's not like there is anything there with BTC.  You could just as well be trading in digital images of ponys.  But as you say, it depends on what people are willing to pay.



thanks for your reply but with your look back and see what has happened comments which of course imply something similar will happen again else there is point point in looking back..

assuming we are past the cycle peak we would be looking at a fall back to around 20K.. two years in the doldrums before the next run up to around 200K..

but what we dont know is.. have we past this cycle peak or not... if we havnt we could go much higher before the end of this year.. if we have its the fall back and two years in the doldrums before the next run up..

basically we have no idea of where we are at in the current cycle.. which kind of means we have no idea of what happens next.. i have offered up the two possibilities.. they do differ a little he he..

trog

ps.. one thing history does show is.. with each cycle the figures get higher.. i have tried to allow for this in my 200K  figures for the maybe next cycle.. assuming we have peaked in this one..

ps2.. and you do highlight the difference between coiners and no coiners.. to no coiners there really is nothing there.. but to people with  skin in the game there is something there.. there own money and sometimes lots of it..


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 16, 2021)

trog100 said:


> thanks for your reply but with your look back and see what has happened comments which of course imply something similar will happen again else there is point point in looking back..
> 
> assuming we are past the cycle peak we would be looking at a fall back to around 20K.. two years in the doldrums before the next run up to around 200K..
> 
> but what we dont know is.. have we past this cycle peak or not... if we havnt we could go much higher before the end of this year.. if we have its the fall back and two years in the doldrums before the next run up..



There's this rule of alternation, that says this time will not be like last time.  There are a dozen or so basic corrective patterns so it is unlikely that two of them will occur back to back.  Even if this is random - and I don't think it is - try rolling a 12 sided die and see how often you come up with the same roll twice.



trog100 said:


> basically we have no idea of where we are at in the current cycle.. which kind of means we have no idea of what happens next.. i have offered up the two possibilities.. they do differ a little he he..
> 
> trog
> 
> ...



Nope, big difference.  If I invest in say Apple, and they get liquidated, we still have their cash, property, IP, logo / trademark and a host of other hard assets.   As long as they are not saddled in debt beyond the value of said assets, there's something 'there'.  

To be fair, there are tons of stocks that essentially have nothing and never have had anything.  Examples from the past would be WorldCom, Tyco, VA Linux, Enron - though several of those involved fraud.  I don't think fraud is rampant now though, I think many people just don't care about actual underlying value.   Twitter and Tesla pretty much fit this bill right now, just to mention some high flyers - both of these would disappear if they were unable to expand and recycle their debt load at low rates.  I wouldn't be surprised to find that half the stocks on the market fit that description.

I find Bitcoin interesting because I think it is a bellwether for investor / public willingness to accept risk.  Before the stock market crashes, Bitcoin will crash.  Heads up - Bitcoin already crashed.

This is an ending diagonal :





This was bitcoin at the peak (daily) - it ended with the pattern above :





This is the NASDAQ today Daily, should look familiar, it seems an ending diagonal also.  The similarity and recent lockstep moves between NASDAQ and Bitcoin are pretty striking.

The last push up does not appear complete, but it's very very close, it could already be done.  

I actually expect this to take us back to 2019 highs, possibly lower.  If that happens, I would also expect Bitcoin to follow with it.


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## trog100 (Jun 20, 2021)

well bitcoin has lost a weeks gains down from 40K to 34K.. we could be setting up for another go at breaking below 30K or maybe it will go back up to 40K..

the stock markets are not doing very well and gold has taken a big dive.. the dollar is up..

this coming week might be interesting..

my mining returns are still pretty crap and ebay gpu prices have dropped a fair bit maybe around 30%..

gold going down is the one that surprises me.. it should be going up by my reckoning.. uncertainty rules the day..

trog

ps.. crypto has just taken another small dip since i wrote this.. its possible the crypto market is front running the stock markets.. this coming monday will tell.. there could be a sell off..


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## RandallFlagg (Jun 20, 2021)

trog100 said:


> well bitcoin has lost a weeks gains down from 40K to 34K.. we could be setting up for another go at breaking below 30K or maybe it will go back up to 40K..
> 
> the stock markets are not doing very well and gold has taken a big dive.. the dollar is up..
> 
> ...



Crypto has already dropped by a % that would be catastrophic in any normal market -  it is currently nearly 50% down from its high.  With that in mind, I do think Crypto is leading.  It was the first sign of risk-off aversion from investors, and that aversion is spreading to the regular markets - of all kinds.

The crowd is usually wrong at major turning points, and on that theme - cash is clearly not dead.  In fact, if there is a major selloff the demand for cash will be rather extreme, which will push bond yields (interest rates) and the dollar up.  

The Fed could just print its way out of that but it has already triggered a good deal of inflation without the big employment gains that were projected.  Meanwhile unemployment benefits and eviction / foreclosure moratoriums are rapidly coming to a close which will affect property values and retail sales - retail sales which are already contracting.   

This will indeed be interesting.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 20, 2021)

If BTC gets down to $32k I will buy it again. Sold mine last time when it breached $40k for a nice gain. Ethereum has been down too, but I think BTC is a better buy.


----------



## Rithsom (Jun 21, 2021)

Well, I just checked and ETH is now below $2,000 for the first time in months (well, besides that very brief dip in May). BTC isn't doing well, either.

Interesting stuff. This is very surprising to see after the gains that happened last week.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 22, 2021)

well the entire crypto market seems to be crashing.. bitcoin is still over 31K but eth is down to 1880...  its basically a sea of red with some quite big alt-coin losses..

i await to see what tomorrow brings.. he he

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 22, 2021)

Scary chart of the day - the DJIA trading at the top of 90 year pitchfork style trend lines :





More on topic, BTC seems to be at a decision point.  Will it stay in its trading range and bounce up, or break down lower?  We should know very soon.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Jun 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> well the entire crypto market seems to be crashing.. bitcoin is still over 31K but eth is down to 1880...  its basically a sea of red with some quite big alt-coin losses..
> 
> i await to see what tomorrow brings.. he he
> 
> trog



The alt-coin market is long overdue for a crash. Too many coins out there that should be worth less than a penny that have been riding crypto hype. The subreddits for them are very entertaining tho with how delusional the buyers are


----------



## trog100 (Jun 22, 2021)

well its tuesday morning in euroland and bitcoin seems to be holding above 31K.. eth seems to be establishing a new bottom at just over 1800.. the rest are all well in the red..

bitcoin is showing it strength relatively speaking..

trog

ps.. bitcoin has just taken another small dip.. its getting very close to that 30K level..


----------



## Nash (Jun 22, 2021)

-20%, 24hr trading volume $48,283,528,130.34.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 22, 2021)

BTC Breaking down.  This means the 5th wave is in progress and likely started at the recent high at 41,261.  

If wave 5=wave 1 that would put the most likely bottom target at ~24,260 as wave 1 was just over 17,000 in price movement.

Common multiples of 5 vs 1 are 68.5%, 100%, 132%, and 168%.

Basically this means a real bottom could be put in at any time, the momentum indicates it's not going to stop at 29-30K though (68.5% of 1) which makes 24-26k much more likely.  I don't get the impression that the momentum will carry much below that but it's still early.

The long term lower trend line sits at about 7500 right now.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 22, 2021)

Looks like the crash is real. BTC below $30k and Eth below $18k. Still waiting for a buy point...


----------



## trog100 (Jun 22, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Looks like the crash is real. BTC below $30k and Eth below $18k. Still waiting for a buy point...



yep and my mining rewards have just doubled.. he he 

obviously a lot activity going on.. 

trog


----------



## Vayra86 (Jun 22, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Scary chart of the day - the DJIA trading at the top of 90 year pitchfork style trend lines :
> 
> View attachment 204919
> 
> ...



Was sitting on purchasing ETH for a month already and so glad I did wait longer. Im quite close to your line of thinking right now. The pandemic effect is huge and a few influencers plus PoS made the peak even bigger, now, reality sets in.

If I had to guess , this is not the bottom just yet. There are no coins to flee to either.



LFaWolf said:


> Looks like the crash is real. BTC below $30k and Eth below $18k. Still waiting for a buy point...



Maybe we are seeing the swap to ETH as leading crypto; BTC cant really compete on a technology level soon, or so people think.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 22, 2021)

why do i have a feeling the crypto markets are front running the stock markets.. he he..

trog


----------



## Nash (Jun 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> why do i have a feeling the crypto markets are front running the stock markets.. he he..
> 
> trog



Because $30,817,xxx. They're trying to keep it up for the week.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Jun 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> why do i have a feeling the crypto markets are front running the stock markets.. he he..
> 
> trog



The crash is coming, it's not a matter of if but when and how far it goes. If you're in stocks it's not a time for speculative plays imo, you should be moving most of your money to cash or blue chips. Crypto wise, ether/btc are those blue chips. Honestly hopefully this kills some alt coins that have no business existing.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> why do i have a feeling the crypto markets are front running the stock markets.. he he..
> 
> trog



I mean, when BTC went up by 100% a few months ago, did you expect the stock market to follow it? Now that BTC is dropping, why do you expect the stock market to follow?

If they're correlated assets, then they're correlated both in rise and fall. You can't just assert that they're correlated because one is dropping. In any case, BTC is down by 15%ish in the past month, while the S&P500 is up 0.76% in the past month. I'm not seeing any reason to think that these two are related at all.

Or a few months ago: when BTC was up by 100% or whatever, S&P500 wasn't up or down much at all. In some cases, assets are inversely correlated (ex: Bonds go up when stocks go down), but I'm not seeing that kind of behavior with BTC vs Stock Market at all.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 22, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> The crash is coming, it's not a matter of if but when and how far it goes. If you're in stocks it's not a time for speculative plays imo, you should be moving most of your money to cash or blue chips. Crypto wise, ether/btc are those blue chips. Honestly hopefully this kills some alt coins that have no business existing.


The crash for cryptocoins? Possibly yes. The stock market? I doubt it. They have been crying about a crash coming for months, if not years. We had a correction back in April already. The market is cyclical and eventually a crash will happen, but just not so soon again.

If you are a long term stockholder, any short term fluctuation in price should not affect you. If you are thinking of buy low and sell high, timing the market is quite difficult.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Jun 22, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> The crash for cryptocoins? Possibly yes. The stock market? I doubt it. They have been crying about a crash coming for months, if not years. We had a correction back in April already. The market is cyclical and eventually a crash will happen, but just not so soon again.
> 
> If you are a long term stockholder, any short term fluctuation in price should not affect you. If you are thinking of buy low and sell high, timing the market is quite difficult.



Every indicator is pointing to an overbought market with inflation on the rise right now. And the second part is exactly what I said in the post you quoted.

It might not end up being a "crash" as most people think but a correction is coming.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> Every indicator is pointing to an overbought market with inflation on the rise right now. And the second part is exactly what I said in the post you quoted.



If inflation happens, you expect people to sell bonds and buy stocks. That is to say: the Stock market is an inflation hedge. When there's inflation risks, you buy stocks and sell dollars (along with other things denominated in dollars: such as 30-year treasuries).

Lets put it this way: would you rather own Exxon (producer of oil), or UFPI (producer of lumber)... or would you rather hold dollars right now? Especially if you're expecting inflation? Alternatively, you can buy/sell commodities (such as oil and/or lumber directly). That's how you protect yourself from inflation.

Alas, Oil and Lumber prices are down over the past week, suggesting that inflation fears are overblown. Furthermore, bond yields continue to drop, again suggesting that people are not in fact worried about inflation (bonds would be hit hardest by any kind of inflation. 2.1% 30-year treasury vs a 3% inflation rate would cause you to lose a lot of real value)

------

Growth stocks are hurt by inflation, because they're not producing a lot of value yet. But any lumber mill / oil producer stock (UFPI / Exxon / etc. etc.) is a very strong inflation hedge. As long as they're *currently* making tons of product, then you're protected as inflation goes up.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 22, 2021)

well the bitcoin journey below 30K was short and sweet... he he..

trog


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 22, 2021)

I have been averaging down this entire time. Got more BTC/ETH/LTC/ETC every day during the drop.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 22, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> If inflation happens, you expect people to sell bonds and buy stocks. That is to say: the Stock market is an inflation hedge. When there's inflation risks, you buy stocks and sell dollars (along with other things denominated in dollars: such as 30-year treasuries).
> 
> Lets put it this way: would you rather own Exxon (producer of oil), or UFPI (producer of lumber)... or would you rather hold dollars right now? Especially if you're expecting inflation? Alternatively, you can buy/sell commodities (such as oil and/or lumber directly). That's how you protect yourself from inflation.
> 
> ...




This is all true, but your core assumption here is that inflation will continue and be sustained.  

When asset bubbles burst, it is not inflationary.

Also of note, the Fed just did ~740B in repos.  That sucked up 6 months of their QE.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> This is all true, but your core assumption here is that inflation will continue and be sustained.
> 
> When asset bubbles burst, it is not inflationary.
> 
> Also of note, the Fed just did ~740B in repos.  That sucked up 6 months of their QE.



By "inflation", I'm talking about food prices, housing prices, transportation prices, clothing prices, and raw material (lumber, bricks, steel, maybe computer parts) prices.

I think people have serious worries right now that inflation is going to go up. Because... it has. The question is if inflation is "transitory" (caused by the reopening of the US economy thanks to the vaccine), or if its a more permanent form of inflation. We've all seen lumber prices go up by 200% or 300% or whatever the heck it is now. We've seen gasoline prices shoot up from $2/gallon to $3/gallon as well.

Real estate may drop (but I believe 2008 was a black swan event. We all know real estate prices could drop, and that shared knowledge alone is going to be helpful at mitigating the next real estate bubble). But real estate is in such a weird spot right now: people are clearly moving around the country, but I don't think anyone really knows where all of us are going.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 22, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Also of note, the Fed just did ~740B in repos.  That sucked up 6 months of their QE.



Could you Cliffs Notes what that means for the benefit of us morons in the cheap seats?


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 22, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> By "inflation", I'm talking about food prices, housing prices, transportation prices, clothing prices, and raw material (lumber, bricks, steel, maybe computer parts) prices.
> 
> I think people have serious worries right now that inflation is going to go up. Because... it has. The question is if inflation is "transitory" (caused by the reopening of the US economy thanks to the vaccine), or if its a more permanent form of inflation. We've all seen lumber prices go up by 200% or 300% or whatever the heck it is now. We've seen gasoline prices shoot up from $2/gallon to $3/gallon as well.
> 
> Real estate may drop (but I believe 2008 was a black swan event. We all know real estate prices could drop, and that shared knowledge alone is going to be helpful at mitigating the next real estate bubble). But real estate is in such a weird spot right now: people are clearly moving around the country, but I don't think anyone really knows where all of us are going.



Or maybe it is because the current administration has dumped Trillions of new printed money into the economy. They are diluting the dollar so fast we aren't even able to process it. Cash sitting in a savings account is losing buying power maybe as high as 10% right now, and they are planning to dump billions more. Sadly with crypto and stock on the decline there doesn't seem to be many safe places to store value. Even gold was down some how...like that one I especially don't understand.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2021)

ZenZimZaliben said:


> Or maybe it is because the current administration has dumped Trillions of new printed money into the economy.



And how much inflation occurred after multiple rounds of QE from the previous administrations?

Look, people have been trying to convince me of inflation for the last decade. I've grown tired of the argument. I'm just looking at the stats at this point, because inflation-crazed fearmongers have called at least 13 recessions over the past decade: 2011, 2012, 2013... etc. etc. This is always a sign for another set of devastating inflation just around the corner.

Color me skeptical. Eventually the crazed inflation will happen, but I'm not entirely convinced by this line of argument. Maybe inflation will happen, but not in a way necessarily related to QE or printing of M0 / M1 measures of money.


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 22, 2021)

I mean 6 Trillion in "New" spending is going to have an impact. $18k per tax payer. That pool of "tax payers" is also growing smaller.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 22, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> By "inflation", I'm talking about food prices, housing prices, transportation prices, clothing prices, and raw material (lumber, bricks, steel, maybe computer parts) prices.
> 
> I think people have serious worries right now that inflation is going to go up. Because... it has. The question is if inflation is "transitory" (caused by the reopening of the US economy thanks to the vaccine), or if its a more permanent form of inflation. We've all seen lumber prices go up by 200% or 300% or whatever the heck it is now. We've seen gasoline prices shoot up from $2/gallon to $3/gallon as well.
> 
> Real estate may drop (but I believe 2008 was a black swan event. We all know real estate prices could drop, and that shared knowledge alone is going to be helpful at mitigating the next real estate bubble). But real estate is in such a weird spot right now: people are clearly moving around the country, but I don't think anyone really knows where all of us are going.



Yes, I know what inflation is.

I'm just saying that your expectation of future inflation based on current conditions may turn out faulty.  I'm not talking about transitory effects either.  Much of Europe and Japan have had deflation for years, and it's not like they haven't had the printing presses running.

As far as 2008, well I consider that to have been part of a 9 year correction.   Yes, that's correct.  Before you laugh, consider the effect of inflation on real dollar market value.  Then consider these 3 charts.

The simplest corrective pattern, an A-B-C correction :






This is an inflation-adjusted S&P 500 :





So the above chart would suggest that 2008 was simply the 2nd leg of a bear market that started in 2000.

Edit: Just for the record, inflation adjusted asset price charts are far more bullish than the non inflation adjusted ones.  Especially when you look at commodities and real assets like property.

To wit, this is what happened to the dollar in the past month.  Many TA types believe the dollar has hit a multi-year low and starting a new bull run which dates back to 2008.  

One place I follow was calling for 89.50ish as the bottom.  For a currency, this is a big move in a short time, like 2.5%.  That will go a log way to eradicating commodity inflation :





Putting this into larger perspective, there's a pretty clear 3-waves up pattern from 2008.  If that count is correct one might expect the dollar to go up about 20% from here.  That would be very deflationary, and what would cause it might be interesting (like, imploding asset markets).


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> well the bitcoin journey below 30K was short and sweet... he he..
> 
> trog


What I see is when there is a dip, there is a slight uptick from the people that buy the dip. I think the real story will be by the end of this week, what would it be.


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## trog100 (Jun 22, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> What I see is when there is a dip, there is a slight uptick from the people that buy the dip. I think the real story will be by the end of this week, what would it be.



pretty well all the "experts" have been saying that if it broke below 30K it would go much lower.. it did break below 30K but then shot straight back up again.. 

to me its still looking like 30K is the bitcoin bottom.. what i would like to see is bitcoin and eth go sideways between where they are now and maybe 10% higher for a while.. maybe a few weeks even.. 

i think the altcoins have hit bear market territory but not bitcoin i still think that long term its going much higher..

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 22, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> What I see is when there is a dip, there is a slight uptick from the people that buy the dip. I think the real story will be by the end of this week, what would it be.



I'll just say, this now counts as 5 waves down.  Correctives do not end on 5 waves down.  

Roughly speaking, the red circle is where we are with BTC.   That decline "A" may not be done but one can expect one hell of a sucker rally when it completes.  I still think it will go down to 24-26k in a final capitulation, as you say later this week.

Someone who knew something called me out earlier and asked how I knew this was not completed around 33k as a complete A-B-C pattern - after all 1-2-3 can be a-b-c.   Mostly my view was based on momentum, market moves don't end on max momentum, but that person was exactly right I did not 'know'.   Turns out I was right though, and we have a new low and potentially some slight more downside to it.

Another implication here though.  Since we had 5 waves down, the real pain looks to be later this year.  That C wave awaits.  The B wave will give some folks an opportunity to exit at higher price levels I believe.  

This is actually no different than what has happened before, 2017-2018 BTC too 12 months to bottom, and in 2019-2020 it took 9 months.  We are relatively early into this one.

You are here (red circle) :


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 22, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> I'll just say, this now counts as 5 waves down.  Correctives do not end on 5 waves down.
> 
> Roughly speaking, the red circle is where we are with BTC.   That decline "A" may not be done but one can expect one hell of a sucker rally when it completes.  I still think it will go down to 24-26k in a final capitulation, as you say later this week.
> 
> ...



I actually feel the same way too, although I don't chart the movement like you. Just wait and see at the moment for a better entry price point.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> pretty well all the "experts" have been saying that if it broke below 30K it would go much lower.. it did break below 30K but then shot straight back up again..



Just because someone else is wrong doesn't make you correct. Its possible both you and the other guy are wrong.


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 22, 2021)

All I know is that with the selling/buying (30/70) ratio's I'm seeing, all these whales are doing is allowing other buyers to pickup coins that the whales will not get back for even remotely the same price. Even if whales dump all their coins there is enough people to buy them all and then the price will naturally go up and the gap the whales made is closed over like it never happened.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 22, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Could you Cliffs Notes what that means for the benefit of us morons in the cheap seats?



Fed Reverse Repos: <-- Link.   Basically the Fed puts up its bonds / treasuries as security and offers a small interest rate to banks for the banks to deposit cash with them, and uses its assets (which it has plenty) as collateral.  

It is short term, but during that time the banks do not have that cash to lend.   They basically already lent it to the Fed.

I love the way they explain it :


*"FEDERAL RESERVE:* “Hey Bank of Stacey, this is the Federal Reserve Reverse Repo Pawnshop. Listen, I know you wanted to lend to your friend and get 5 percent interest back , but that’s awfully low. I don’t think you should be so generous. In fact, why don’t you just lend that factory money to ME instead of to your friend. I’m not gonna build a factory with it. I’m gonna do NOTHING with it. Here, I’ll pawn my bonds to YOU, and I’m gonna buy them back later for 10 percent more than you gave me – it’ll be like you’re making 10 percent interest!”

*BANK OF STACEY:* “What about my friend?”

*FEDERAL RESERVE REVERSE REPO PAWN SHOP:* “Um can she pay 10 percent interest? I don’t think so. So if you could just go ahead and lend me the money. Kthxbai.”

Reverse repo = suck money out of the economy, fast.

"Repo" does the opposite, injecting money into the economy.









						Fed sees record $756 billion demand for reverse repo program and may hit $1 trillion
					

Demand by banks and others using the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo program surged to a new $755.80 billion record high on Thursday, a day after...




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 22, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Fed Reverse Repos: <-- Link.   Basically the Fed puts up its bonds / treasuries as security and offers a small interest rate to banks for the banks to deposit cash with them, and uses its assets (which it has plenty) as collateral.
> 
> It is short term, but during that time the banks do not have that cash to lend.   They basically already lent it to the Fed.
> 
> ...



Nice; thanks.  The other implied question was, what's the cause-effect relationship between that and QE?

I'm asking you rather than Google because you seem to have a pretty good handle on this stuff, and are better at explaining it in plain language than most.

(If this is getting too off topic, please ignore.)


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Nice; thanks. The other implied question was, what's the cause-effect relationship between that and QE?



What's the cause-effect relationship between a hammer and a screwdriver?

Answer: there is none. They're two different tools that do a similar job, but the Fed decides that sometimes it wants a hammer, other times it wants a screwdriver. Or... sometimes it wants to lower interest rates, other times it wants a reverse repo, and still other times it wants QE.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 22, 2021)

dragontamer5788 said:


> What's the cause-effect relationship between a hammer and a screwdriver?
> 
> Answer: there is none. They're two different tools that do a similar job, but the Fed decides that sometimes it wants a hammer, other times it wants a screwdriver. Or... sometimes it wants to lower interest rates, other times it wants a reverse repo, and still other times it wants QE.



Ok, so some of the funds for the stimulus bills were raised via QE?  And now they're running the reverse repo to draw some of all that injected cash back out to hedge against inflation?

The astute among you may have grasped that I'm not great at macroeconomics.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Ok, so some of the funds for the stimulus bills were raised via QE?  And now they're running the reverse repo to draw some of all that injected cash back out to hedge against inflation?



Different organizations.

The Fed is the primary bank of the United States. As the largest bank of the country, they have a huge amount of influence over its member banks (literally everyone else), since the laws were written such that all other banks are members of the Fed.

Congress wrote the stimulus bill. The Treasury pays the bill. The Treasury creates these funds by (mostly) borrowing money. This borrowed money is called a "Bond".

The Fed has a relationship with the Treasury, but they're completely different entities. In fact, the member banks all have a seat on the Fed's board (with the US President appointing the chairman). So the Fed is in fact *partially* a free market entity, while also *partially* a government entity. Its one of those things that don't quite fit into "Free market" vs "Government". In contrast, the Treasury is 100% Government. Their goal is to sell enough bonds (aka: borrow enough money) to run the government.

The Treasury can also print money, if it so chooses. The US Mint (who makes coins) is for some reason... a different organization. Just to keep things confusing I guess? The Fed *cannot* print money, it must go to the Treasury if it wants to "print money". The Fed however holds the accounts of all of its member banks in the so called "Fed Balance Sheet", which *acts* a heck of a lot like money. QE is the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.

----------

EDIT: I realize that's very confusing. So I always like following up the explanation with "Credit Cards", since I assume you're familiar with them?

A bank gives you a Credit Card with up to a $5000 credit line. It is illegal for a bank to "print money", so where did the $5000 come from? Answer: it came from no where, because you haven't spent the $5000 yet. Its just a promise, from the bank to you, that if you were to spend up to $5000, the bank is trusted enough in the greater economy that it will find that $5000 and pay off whatever you want when you swipe that card.

Similarly: when the Fed's balance sheet increases, its very similar to this "Virtual $5000" that is your credit card line. Its not really cash (because only the Treasury can make true cash). Its just a promise that the Fed can get the money if the member banks need it. In practice, this "Virtual $5000" ends up acting a lot *like* cash.

QE is kinda-sorta like the Fed expanding its credit-line on this credit card. If the Fed suddenly expanded its credit line to $20,000, it didn't "print" $15,000 out of nothingness. But the economy kinda-sorta acts as if $15,000 came out of no where. The Fed then used this recently expanded credit line to buy a bunch of things (in particular: bonds) to push the price of bonds up in the public markets (aka: to make interest rates lower).


----------



## 64K (Jun 22, 2021)

Unemployment is down to 5.5% but we don't know how many of those jobs are part time. A family member lost her job do to downsizing and she must have gone to a dozen businesses looking for work but everyone just wanted part time help. You can't even buy the basic necessities and pay the mortgage with a part time job. We could be looking at deflation around the corner because people don't have enough money to buy much. Inflation is a more likely scenario though.

The borrowing is out of hand though. Most of us know that we can't keep borrowing just to pay down our debt. The Fed Balance Sheet is almost 8 trillion dollars. That's kind of scary.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 22, 2021)

64K said:


> Unemployment is down to 5.5% but we don't know how many of those jobs are part time.



Isn't that just U-6 minus U-5?

U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force

U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force

U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)

U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers

U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

-------------

We track U-3 because that's the number that's been tracked the longest. If you have issues with the "definition" of Unemployment, you can track the alternative measurements (U1, U2, U4, U5, and U6) depending on how many people you want to include. U1 is the smallest group, and U6 is the biggest group.


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## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 22, 2021)

Taking money out of the system doesn't work because we run on a system of debt and promises to repay. As soon as that fresh $1 bill is printed it is instantly leveraged, oh lets say 1000 times by the banks, so even by removing the actual $1 from the market it doesn't do anything for actual inflation because the debt  of the banks that leveraged it 1000x is still in play. 

The best way to stop it is to stop printing money, because then nothing can be leveraged.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 23, 2021)

the fed has two choices.. stop printing and watch the economy quickly collapse along with societal unrest or keep printing and watch inflation destroy things a little slower..

it will take the second option because its initially easier.. 

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 23, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Nice; thanks.  The other implied question was, what's the cause-effect relationship between that and QE?
> 
> I'm asking you rather than Google because you seem to have a pretty good handle on this stuff, and are better at explaining it in plain language than most.
> 
> (If this is getting too off topic, please ignore.)



I'll give a little bit simpler explanation from my viewpoint.

QE means the Fed does open market operations and buys treasuries and MBS or bundled mortgages.  If you have an IRA for example, and go look at fixed income assets that you can purchase, you'll see things like US Treasuries for sale by 3d parties.  

Treasuries are like any other asset, they are worth what people will pay for them.  With the Fed buying, they're worth more than would be 'natural' right now.  

Lets step back, in 2019 I paid $50,000 for some treasuries and they yield 2.125%.  In that 2 years, that's about 4.25%.  But I can sell them now and get 6.14% return, i.e. a bit over $53,000.   This is real, I actually own these and that is what they are worth right now.  That is a 3.1% return from treasuries that would otherwise have a yield of 2.125%.  The extra is because, if you were to buy a brand new 5 year treasury, it would yield around 0.88%.  I get paid the difference in the yield by the buyer.   

So a lot of investors will sell.  The Fed has driven up the price of the treasuries such that it's not worth waiting another 5 years to maturity to get another $3000 when I can get half of it right here right now.   Now I have $53,000 sitting in my IRA.  I then re-invest it in stocks and so on.

However the above takes time._*  It's slow.*_

What if you want to suck money out _*right away*_?

Well, you tell the banks and funds that if they buy your assets and deposit money, you'll repay them for those assets in the future for a given % above their value.  

Back in April 2020 the Fed dropped Repo rates to zero.  This basically told the banks, you won't get any return from repos with the Fed, put your money to work elsewhere.  This made sure that money out in circulation kept circulating, the banks and MMFs had to do something else with their money.

I keep using the word bank.  The Fed has other ways to stop money flow from member banks. Reverse Repos are more for things they don't directly control, like Money Market Funds Hedge funds and corporate investment funds.

This was the very first move to loosen money supply in 2020, it's the first move to tighten now.  

Reflected here, they went from ~200B to over 750B in about 6 weeks.  This cash got sucked right out of the economy.

Now I don't know for a fact, but common sense would indicate, this is a direct result of the surprise inflation numbers.  

It may also be the real reason for turbulence in the markets.






What this tells me, is when inflation went up the Fed was like :





Now they didn't want to panic anyone.  They're still doing QE.  But that reverse repo operation?  WTF.  That's 7 years of repos up on that chart.  Someone at the Fed shit a brick.



trog100 said:


> the fed has two choices.. stop printing and watch the economy quickly collapse along with societal unrest or keep printing and watch inflation destroy things a little slower..
> 
> it will take the second option because its initially easier..
> 
> trog



These are bankers and politicians, not the salvation army.  They're going to care more about the currency than your job.  

Collapsing the currency would ultimately result in the same problem anyway, so why would they do it?


----------



## trog100 (Jun 23, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> I'll give a little bit simpler explanation from my viewpoint.
> 
> QE means the Fed does open market operations and buys treasuries and MBS or bundled mortgages.  If you have an IRA for example, and go look at fixed income assets that you can purchase, you'll see things like US Treasuries for sale by 3d parties.
> 
> ...



they basically have lost control.. what they have been doing works until it dosnt.. the time it dosnt is rapidly  approaching..

having said that they have managed to keep it going for longer than i thought possible.. he he..

politics aside.. bitcoin and eth are showing a nice recovery from the last scary lows.. 

trog


----------



## Nash (Jun 23, 2021)

> bitcoin and eth are showing a nice recovery from the last scary



They said [nothing] it's now $34,132.62.  Playing the same old song and doing the same old "trouble trouble" routine, rewind, repeat. Who cares, it's only play money.


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 23, 2021)

Ehh I might be a little beyond "Play Money" at this point. But all this action on BTC is normal. It has tanked to a new ATH Floor and then moon'd many times.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 23, 2021)

ZenZimZaliben said:


> Ehh I might be a little beyond "Play Money" at this point. But all this action on BTC is normal. It has tanked to a new ATH Floor and then moon'd many times.



my "play money" has gone down by about 35K since its peak in april but it aint money i need so i can live with that.. 

trog


----------



## Nash (Jun 23, 2021)

Seven day sticks. The big wave pattern here goes down, until it goes up. 
This is probably a different from 200yo blue-chip companies. 

If you're not mining and you're not a billionaire, don't act like one with this, it's a firecracker!


----------



## Liquid Cool (Jun 23, 2021)

I'm dealing with some health issues or I would have posted earlier....

BTC looks like a successful retest of 30k to me, but yes...that does appear to be a truncated fifth(more on this topic AND commodities later), so...no a-b-c here.  I'd expect a nice bounce into the range we mentioned earlier and then it might be time to watch closely.  Although with markets that are bubbly...expect exaggerated expansion.  In my world hi's/low's don't matter...it's all in the pattern of time AND price.  RF...I know you're familiar with that if you're mentioning fractals.

Since there are a lot of science types on this site who appreciate pi and as I briefly read through the thread I saw a recent comment or two on the US dollar...I will post one of my own charts.  I post this with the comment that this formation can be found if you observe 11.09 in the SPX and start moving towards the Bethlehem Star(as the center and 3.04 as beginning of the last wave.).  With technical analysis...may you never stop expanding your knowledge base.  



I've always watched the dollar/gold relationship rather closely.  If you look at the up volume vs. the volume on pullbacks on the base in uup...bullish.

Take care, will drop back in as soon as I can...

Liquid Cool


----------



## trog100 (Jun 23, 2021)

that chart looks fine to me nash.. the whales helped by general media fud have driven the price down as far as they can.. from now on in the only way is up.. 

trog


----------



## Nash (Jun 23, 2021)

Liquid Cool said:


> I'm dealing with some health issues or I would have posted earlier....



Take care of yourself first! We've had to deal with a lot in the last 18 months.

I marked up a year chart mainly to to point at Musk. 
All together now, this 90 day bust was Elon's fault.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 23, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Looks like the crash is real. BTC below $30k and Eth below $18k. Still waiting for a buy point...


You'll be waiting a while. The crash will keep going. Cryptocoin values are likely to return to pre2021 levels but it will take a few months to get there. On the up-side GPU prices are falling(YAAY!!).


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 23, 2021)

Now or Never. The crash will not keep going. Cryptocoin values are likely to return to THE MOON but it will take a few months to get there. On the down-side GPU prices are DOOMED(Meh!!).


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 23, 2021)

ZenZimZaliben said:


> The crash will not keep going.


That's what many said last month and it's still going...


ZenZimZaliben said:


> Cryptocoin values are likely to return to THE MOON but it will take a few months to get there.


And the farmer dragged off yet another load...


ZenZimZaliben said:


> On the down-side GPU prices are DOOMED(Meh!!).


Ah, you're deliberately being contrary...


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 23, 2021)

Lol, yah. That's my tag - I'm contrarian. And that no one really knows.


----------



## Mescalamba (Jun 23, 2021)

It might crash, but compared to previous ATH its taking really long and moving really slow.

But ofc even way up took much longer. Wasnt bull run, more like bull climb.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 23, 2021)

Mescalamba said:


> It might crash, but compared to previous ATH its taking really long and moving really slow.
> 
> But ofc even way up took much longer. Wasnt bull run, more like bull climb.


Yeah, it's been interesting to watch. Some people have said that it mimicking the stock market, but I just haven't seen that and the frequent charts by RandallFlagg & Nash illustrate this very clearly.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 24, 2021)

Liquid Cool said:


> I'm dealing with some health issues or I would have posted earlier....
> 
> BTC looks like a successful retest of 30k to me, but yes...that does appear to be a truncated fifth(more on this topic AND commodities later), so...no a-b-c here.  I'd expect a nice bounce into the range we mentioned earlier and then it might be time to watch closely.  Although with markets that are bubbly...expect exaggerated expansion.  In my world hi's/low's don't matter...it's all in the pattern of time AND price.  RF...I know you're familiar with that if you're mentioning fractals.
> 
> ...



Actually there's no truncation on the 5th wave, it made a new low.  Truncation would be failing to go below the 3rd wave.

I also think BTC has more push down before a big rally.  I can't be sure, I count 5 waves down recently as a wave 5, but it is possible that is a 1 of 5.  It is also proportionally messy.  5=1 would make more sense.  That would put BTC back to 20-25K.   

Also the pattern on BTC, when it peaked.  That's called an ending diagonal.  Ending diagonals are strange because they they are counted 1-2-3-4-5, but all 5 waves subdivide into 3's.  More info in that link.

I posted earlier, the NASDAQ seems to have the same pattern, but didn't appear complete although close.

Well, it now looks complete.

Ending diagonal :




Here's BTC when it topped note the last 4 waves clearly subdivide into 3's - one could debate the 1st wave, but we know the results here already :






Now here's the NASDAQ.  Same thing, a few months later?   Hmmm..


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 24, 2021)

I expect BTC will skyrocket if Congress doesn't listen to Yellen and have something done by end of August.  I hate crypto as you all well know.  However, USA can't just print 6 trillion in less than a year and have no consequences either (still blows my mind... and at end of day it didn't even really change anything... the vaccines were actually very tiny amount of that money), keep in mind as inflation skyrockets older people and disabled people on fixed incomes will hurt even more, they will spend less, and the ripple effects are so fragile that everything can come crashing down very fast.









						Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns of 'absolutely catastrophic' hit to economic recovery this summer if US can't pay its bills on time
					

If the federal government can't pay back its debtors in time by raising the debt ceiling, it could put Americans' jobs and savings in jeopardy




					www.businessinsider.com
				




_Without the extension, she warned of an "absolutely catastrophic" default that would imperil the nation's economic recovery from the pandemic.

"I think defaulting on the national debt should be regarded as unthinkable," she told the Senate Appropriations Committee, calling it "utterly unprecedented in American history for the US government to default on its legal obligations."

Though borrowing is a routine cycle the federal government uses to keep the country running through the sale of bonds, it's reaching its "debt ceiling" on July 31 and needs to service its debt before it can borrow more._

Looks like just raising the debt ceiling and relying on bonds simply won't cut it this time, got to start paying the bills eventually. I think September of this year we could be looking at $8 loaf of bread, $11 gallon of milk, across the board, unless Congress gets its act together and cuts spending and increases taxes on wealthy, and the taxes can't go to anything new, they must go to paying down the debt. We'll have to wait and see. I'm not very hopeful though, they will have in-fighting and bickering like they always do. Yellen says she has enough emergency power to pay the debts until end of August. So I will revise my statement, by end of December not September, if Congress has not corrected their horrible endless printing spending habits, it will all come crashing down.

That being said, Yellen is well aware of it, which is why she specifically says have to pay the debt some, can't just raise debt ceiling this time... those are the words heard round the world... it's been 20 years of just raising the debt ceiling... something tells me those rich people got PassPorts and other bank accounts in many other countries for a reason, maybe that day is finally coming. I hope not. Let's hope Congress gets its act together and realizes their isn't an endless amount of money they can just print. 

Honestly I see a way to do it, but no one would ever agree on it. This is only part of it, but I'd even include a 1% tax on every single person's paycheck in America regardless of income level or disability check, or social security check, and the pay stubs on every single one will read "1% taxes deducted to bring down the national debt, be careful who you vote for, and how they spend your money, vote more smart in the future"  (this is not a political statement, as both sides spend insanely on various useless things).  We evolve as a society, or we fall... my guess is we will fall.  The sad part is, we could have had everything we all wanted, on both sides, but cause of so much hate and fear we just say screw everyone and let the machine crumble. Very sad indeed.

@RandallFlagg thoughts on Yellen here?  America already had one credit rating deduction  can it withstand another?  Congress has to not delay, and come to a sensible net positive balance sheet before it is to late. 

I know Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter, has a lot of crypto... all the richest of the rich do... alongside their many passports and other currencies, they wouldn't do that if they thought an American permanent crash wasn't possible... hmm. Thoughts? My only conclusion is that if Congress doesn't get its act together by end of December its all over as far as inflation goes, and the final crumbling of the middle class.

I think we are at a breaking point right now. If Congress fails at a bi-partisan level, and they don't find a way to work out a paying down of the debt and inflation doubles again with compounding interest to boot, crypto soars to the moon in 2022. If Congress surprises us all of us, and acts like mature human beings who put on their utilitarian hats instead of their toddlers at recess hats, then crypto falls and busts in 2022. This is my thinking anyway, time will tell.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 24, 2021)

on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%... 

nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??

trog


----------



## Vayra86 (Jun 24, 2021)

ShiBDiB said:


> The crash is coming, it's not a matter of if but when and how far it goes. If you're in stocks it's not a time for speculative plays imo, you should be moving most of your money to cash or blue chips. Crypto wise, ether/btc are those blue chips. Honestly hopefully this kills some alt coins that have no business existing.



ETH = the framework for all those altcoins though


----------



## Nash (Jun 24, 2021)

trog100 said:


> on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...
> 
> nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??
> 
> trog



You're just nervous, if you're inclined to hold, then hold. I started buying MSFT in 2012 at $30 and kept adding into the $50's. Today it's $265. It took a while but it was a good buy. I would like to get rid of it but they're on a tear, selling now would be stupid. One consideration for me, is that it's spent money, old money that I don't need. Can it crash?, of course it can! If I had to sell at 1/2 the current price, I would still make money, it only it cost me some time. My dad thinks I should be more risk-tolerant, but I'm not, I like a sure thing, and he's added quite a bit to it for me, he also has his own.
If you've done the same thing with BTC, stick with it, that's what I'm doing.

I have a two week chart, here the green flats are periods I watch, the dips in red on the far right, not much! I'm looking for this flat to stretch into or over the weekend, we'll see!





_________________

Adding a snip from that chart, this is the anomalous 40k period, looks strange in isolation.


----------



## 64K (Jun 24, 2021)

trog100 said:


> on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...
> 
> nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??
> 
> trog



You're right but inevitably you will need to cash out your Bitcoins or buy things with them and then you may lose money. I suppose you could pass them down in a Will and never lose money in your lifetime.


----------



## sepheronx (Jun 24, 2021)

64K said:


> You're right but inevitably you will need to cash out your Bitcoins or buy things with them and then you may lose money. I suppose you could pass them down in a Will and never lose money in your lifetime.


he'll add me to his will.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> @RandallFlagg thoughts on Yellen here?  America already had one credit rating deduction  can it withstand another?  Congress has to not delay, and come to a sensible net positive balance sheet before it is to late.
> 
> I know Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter, has a lot of crypto... all the richest of the rich do... alongside their many passports and other currencies, they wouldn't do that if they thought an American permanent crash wasn't possible... hmm. Thoughts? My only conclusion is that if Congress doesn't get its act together by end of December its all over as far as inflation goes, and the final crumbling of the middle class.
> 
> I think we are at a breaking point right now. If Congress fails at a bi-partisan level, and they don't find a way to work out a paying down of the debt and inflation doubles again with compounding interest to boot, crypto soars to the moon in 2022. If Congress surprises us all of us, and acts like mature human beings who put on their utilitarian hats instead of their toddlers at recess hats, then crypto falls and busts in 2022. This is my thinking anyway, time will tell.



I don't think Congress will default on anything, they'll just recycle old debt.   Sell more treasuries and use the proceeds to pay off old ones.   The end result is that each year, roughly $2000 of taxes for every man woman and child in the US is just to pay interest on the debt.  i.e. about $600B in taxes will go to pay interest.  

Poor people get into debt for short term gratifications, and rich people give loans for long term wealth building.  All this spending is just going to make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, on a macro scale, while it is sold as help to the poor.  That $600B in interest each year is going into the pockets of investors, and that number will go up significantly as the new debt skyrockets - not too long from now, starting about 2025, the bills start to come due.   It is ironic that it is primarily the poor / lower middle class that demand the spend.  They know not what they do.  

And no, those taxes won't make ultra-wealthy people pay more.  They will make upper middle class pay more, which puts up artificial barriers from say the top 10% being able to get into the top 1%.  Until they can get the super wealthy to actually pay more than 2% in taxes, it's stupid to talk about raising capital gains taxes from 20% to 40% on everyone else IMO.  These people have entire teams, perhaps entire LLCs, to help them avoid taxes.  To this end, a simple flat tax would make a lot of sense.  No loopholes, no exceptions.   









						The secret IRS files: Trove of never-before-seen records reveal how wealthiest avoid income tax
					

ProPublica obtained IRS information showing how billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett pay little in income tax compared to their wealth.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## Mescalamba (Jun 24, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Yeah, it's been interesting to watch. Some people have said that it mimicking the stock market, but I just haven't seen that and the frequent charts by RandallFlagg & Nash illustrate this very clearly.


Fairly sure it will eventually mimic stock market, but we definitely not there. Thats years from now. Also there is always possibility that it will fail as whole, in that case its not years, but never.



trog100 said:


> on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...
> 
> nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??
> 
> trog



In case of some super negative governments intervention, they might lose money. If everything goes as it does now, then yea.. buying and holding loses nothing.



RandallFlagg said:


> I don't think Congress will default on anything, they'll just recycle old debt.   Sell more treasuries and use the proceeds to pay off old ones.   The end result is that each year, roughly $2000 of taxes for every man woman and child in the US is just to pay interest on the debt.  i.e. about $600B in taxes will go to pay interest.
> 
> Poor people get into debt for short term gratifications, and rich people give loans for long term wealth building.  All this spending is just going to make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, on a macro scale, while it is sold as help to the poor.  That $600B in interest each year is going into the pockets of investors, and that number will go up significantly as the new debt skyrockets - not too long from now, starting about 2025, the bills start to come due.   It is ironic that it is primarily the poor / lower middle class that demand the spend.  They know not what they do.
> 
> ...


Seems Elon aint there yet. 

At level of Bezos and such, you have enough money to do quite literally whatever you want. Im sometimes grateful that these people have such small amount of imagination.. At least they direct their evil into paying less taxes and exploiting workers as opposed to far worse things that could be done with that amount of wealth.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 24, 2021)

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/jolnpv

trog


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 24, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> I don't think Congress will default on anything, they'll just recycle old debt.   Sell more treasuries and use the proceeds to pay off old ones.   The end result is that each year, roughly $2000 of taxes for every man woman and child in the US is just to pay interest on the debt.  i.e. about $600B in taxes will go to pay interest.
> 
> Poor people get into debt for short term gratifications, and rich people give loans for long term wealth building.  All this spending is just going to make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, on a macro scale, while it is sold as help to the poor.  That $600B in interest each year is going into the pockets of investors, and that number will go up significantly as the new debt skyrockets - not too long from now, starting about 2025, the bills start to come due.   It is ironic that it is primarily the poor / lower middle class that demand the spend.  They know not what they do.
> 
> ...


I didn’t click on the link so I didn’t read it, but if I am not mistaken, the total wealth growth is the growth of their stocks and portfolio, so they are unrealized gains and they shouldn’t pay taxes on them if they never sell the stocks (unrealized gains). The reported income is probably what they have sold so the taxes they paid are correct. We never, ever, should pay taxes on unrealized gains.


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 24, 2021)

trog100 said:


> on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...
> 
> nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??
> 
> trog


I'm sure you will get a chart that explains why you are wrong in something that can't be predicted. Even though historically holding has been the best strategy...even though Holding isn't consider an elite trading strategy and something only plebs do. lol


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 24, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I didn’t click on the link so I didn’t read it, but if I am not mistaken, the total wealth growth is the growth of their stocks and portfolio, so they are unrealized gains and they shouldn’t pay taxes on them if they never sell the stocks (unrealized gains). The reported income is probably what they have sold so the taxes they paid are correct. We never, ever, should pay taxes on unrealized gains.



I've seen that explanation and that's probably 90% of it.  And then you have tax-free investments and funds.

For example, say I have 10 Billion $$.  I put it into tax-free municipal bonds that draw 5%.  That's $500M per year in interest.

No taxes I believe.  Are there limits to that? IDK I'm too far from limits to go look.   

This is just one of a dozen ways to avoid taxes that *I* can think of though, and I'm not a professional.   These guys have teams of pros working this stuff out, and the tax code would take you years to read much less understand.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 24, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> I don't think Congress will default on anything, they'll just recycle old debt.   Sell more treasuries and use the proceeds to pay off old ones.   The end result is that each year, roughly $2000 of taxes for every man woman and child in the US is just to pay interest on the debt.  i.e. about $600B in taxes will go to pay interest.
> 
> Poor people get into debt for short term gratifications, and rich people give loans for long term wealth building.  All this spending is just going to make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, on a macro scale, while it is sold as help to the poor.  That $600B in interest each year is going into the pockets of investors, and that number will go up significantly as the new debt skyrockets - not too long from now, starting about 2025, the bills start to come due.   It is ironic that it is primarily the poor / lower middle class that demand the spend.  They know not what they do.
> 
> ...



The worst part is I think there is a way to fix everything, it's just there is so much hatred, and a got mine don't care about you attitude it will never happen. Instead of using logic and reason in Congress, they act like children.

I don't know what the future holds, but if America does not fix its never paying back debt problem and inflation skyrocketing, it's all going to collapse. The middle class will go (and is going already) first, the rest will follow soon after, or the rich will simply flee which is why they divest their money over a variety of currencies and crypto in-case one fails always have a backup. It's a shame it really is. Geographically speaking America has so much going for it, the two vast oceans protecting us, if only we could move beyond the hate, and everyone paid their fair share of taxes (including wealthy and religious entities), and government spent those taxes properly, and the citizens had confidence the government would spend those taxes properly... we could all truly live in a paradise.  It is the greatest paradox of our species existence, we could literally have everything, we are truly capable of it, but we let the animal part of our brain win so we resort to survival of me and mine attitudes...

Oh well, humans had their chance, I am pretty confident within 5,000 years Earth will be resetting itself with a new species that replaces whatever remains of us after climate change.  /shrug  best we can do is just enjoy life best we can and live simply.  speaking of which I am reading a very good book at the moment, so going to go read some more of that. take care all


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 25, 2021)

trog100 said:


> on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...
> 
> nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??
> 
> trog


To be fair, that is a good point. However if you look at the 5 year charts, not so great a picture..



Mescalamba said:


> Fairly sure it will eventually mimic stock market, but we definitely not there. Thats years from now. Also there is always possibility that it will fail as whole, in that case its not years, but never.


I don't ever see that happening. The Stock market and cryptocoin market are very different creatures. They're operated very differently and a symmetry between them is just not likely to ever happen.


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 25, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> To be fair, that is a good point. However if you look at the 5 year charts, not so great a picture..
> 
> 
> I don't ever see that happening. The Stock market and cryptocoin market are very different creatures. They operated very differently and a symmetry between them is just not likely to ever happen.


$660 => $33,000 seems like a good return to me. Or is that not what you mean?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 25, 2021)

ZenZimZaliben said:


> $660 => $33,000 seems like a good return to me. Or is that not what you mean?


Nope, not what I meant. Though to be fair, if that's your return? Well done indeed! Fricken score!


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 25, 2021)

ZenZimZaliben said:


> $660 => $33,000 seems like a good return to me. Or is that not what you mean?




 to be fair, AMD stock when it was $1 a share 5-7 years ago, 3 grand of that would be worth like 300+ grand or something now.  

so you still invested badly if your ultimate goal is max outcome of profit.  /shrug


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 25, 2021)

I would be real careful around any crypto.  I have a not-a-chart reason for that too.

Last year, a huge chunk of fairly well paid professionals were sent to work at home, while others were furloughed and drew heftier than normal unemployment.  Yet others were voluntarily retired, with perks, cashed in 401Ks, cashed out pension plans, and so on.  

Many of these folks used their time to grow a garden, build a deck, or get some excercise.

A bunch of them started screwing around in the markets.

Now, they're going back to work, slowly but surely.   

I am pretty sure you are going to see some of these edge case markets collapse over time as people get back to their normal day jobs.


----------



## Massdeth (Jun 25, 2021)

If your into crypto get out now. This is the sign that they are getting ready to crash the market: https://markets.businessinsider.com...-disapper-crypto-heist-2021-6-1030548585?op=1   Its coming. If it stays together another 30 days ill be surprised.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 25, 2021)

Massdeth said:


> If your into crypto get out now. This is the sign that they are getting ready to crash the market: https://markets.businessinsider.com...-disapper-crypto-heist-2021-6-1030548585?op=1   Its coming. If it stays together another 30 days ill be surprised.


Yet another reason why strict regulations are needed world wide.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 25, 2021)

ignoring the fud bitcoin seems to be locked into a narrow band between 30 and 35K.. i think it might stay like this for a while.. 

kind of boring but it seems to be what is happening.. 

trog


----------



## Nash (Jun 25, 2021)

It is boring, I just saw it $33,843 the price is hovering. It will break out in a few hours, I hope it head up!


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 25, 2021)

Massdeth said:


> If your into crypto get out now. This is the sign that they are getting ready to crash the market: https://markets.businessinsider.com...-disapper-crypto-heist-2021-6-1030548585?op=1   Its coming. If it stays together another 30 days ill be surprised.



I won't be.  It's kind of like the apocalypse or end times:  folks keep predicting the end/collapse, and it stubbornly refuses to show up in an appropriately timely fashion.  Then the date gets moved.  That's not to say it _won't_ collapse at some point; that possibility is very real.

The quote from the linked article that stuck out to me was:



> Most recently, the Bank for International Settlement criticized the digital asset for its role in illegal activities.
> 
> "By now, it is clear that *cryptocurrencies are speculative assets rather than money*, and in many cases are used to facilitate money laundering, ransomware attacks, and other financial crimes" BIS said.



Now, I don't know what the Bank for International Settlement does or if we should care about its opinion, but the bolded text is a nice encapsulation of the current state of crypto IMO.  Advocates will say that the transition from speculative asset to legitimate and widespread means of exchange is coming, but I remain skeptical, at least on any near-term timescale.  If it does happen, it probably won't be Bitcoin or any of the existing altcoins, but a newly developed companion or replacement for established currencies like the greenback, euro, yuan and yen.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 25, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Now, I don't know what the Bank for International Settlement does or if we should care about its opinion, but the bolded text is a nice encapsulation of the current state of crypto IMO.  Advocates will say that the transition from speculative asset to legitimate and widespread means of exchange is coming, but I remain skeptical, at least on any near-term timescale.  If it does happen, it probably won't be Bitcoin or any of the existing altcoins, but a newly developed companion or replacement for established currencies like the greenback, euro, yuan and yen.



Completely agree with that and posted that view a few times.  Crypto, as a technology, is likely to supplant currency as we know it. 

But it won't be these cryptos.  It'll be a government / bank issued crypto.   Why?  Because blockchain is quite literally a database of every transaction that ever happened to every unit of currency.   

Give every person in your country a wallet, just like a social security number, and you can find out everything they ever bought and where every 'coin' they ever touched went.   

This will make it exceedingly easy to find money launderers, and virtually impossible to hide income.   Someone tipped you as a waiter and you didn't report it?  Busted.  Bought a 50 round magazine for your rifle in Arizona but live in California?  Uh huh, they know.   Bought something in person from someone who later is busted as a Meth pusher or for pimping prostitutes?  Ah yeah.

China is already experimenting with a crypto Yuan.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 25, 2021)

so we move into a cashless society where government knows everything you earn and everything you spend.. lets call it government controlled digital credits..

long live bitcoin. and may it remain free of government control for ever.. . he he he..

trog



Nash said:


> It is boring, I just saw it $33,843 the price is hovering. It will break out in a few hours, I hope it head up!



later in the day.. bitcoin is down 8% and eth down 10%.. lets see how low it will go.. 

will it break 30K.. i dont think so but it may.. 

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 25, 2021)

trog100 said:


> so we move into a cashless society where government knows everything you earn and everything you spend.. lets call it government controlled digital credits..
> 
> long live bitcoin. and may it remain free of government control for ever.. . he he he..
> 
> trog



Actually more like long live physical cash.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jun 25, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Actually more like long live physical cash.



that's what I was thinking.  so many people get by in life just by doing odd jobs helping a friend move and getting paid in $20 cash, etc.  cash just makes it easier. 

In a country like America, if you announced a no cash based system, I would be very surprised if you don't get voted out of office in a recall and replaced with someone who is for cash in the next cycle. 

It would be political suicide. lol   and it wouldn't change anything because it would get reversed in 4 years.  so yeah, nothing to worry about there.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 25, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Actually more like long live physical cash.



well yes but that is one thing that aint gonna happen.. cash or the ability to spend your own money freely is the main thing they want to get rid off..

trog

ps.. its all tied in with negative interest rates they need to lock your money into the banking system.. being able to withdraw "cash" kind of buggers this up..

the odd thing is the people crying for more government control dont quite realize what they are actually crying for.. he he


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 25, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> that's what I was thinking.  so many people get by in life just by doing odd jobs helping a friend move and getting paid in $20 cash, etc.  cash just makes it easier.
> 
> In a country like America, if you announced a no cash based system, I would be very surprised if you don't get voted out of office in a recall and replaced with someone who is for cash in the next cycle.
> 
> It would be political suicide. lol   and it wouldn't change anything because it would get reversed in 4 years.  so yeah, nothing to worry about there.



I agree with the sentiment, but most people believe crypto \ blockchain is somehow inherently anonymous.  

Very few people realize that blockchain, the underlying tech, is in fact a database that forever keeps track of all transactions.  That simple fact would probably scare people off, but how many even know that?  Moreover, by being a distributed database it's persistent forever, you can't go blow up a server somewhere and wipe those transactions out.  

But there's nothing about blockchain that enhances anonymity and secrecy - it's just the opposite.   The only thing keeping anyone anonymous is not being connected to their wallet.   Once you're connected to that wallet, everything is laid bare.



trog100 said:


> well yes but that is one thing that aint gonna happen.. cash or the ability to spend your own money freely is the main thing they want to get rid off..
> 
> trog
> 
> ...



There are (false) points on this that people will buy into on both sides of the political spectrum.  

It will help them stop crime, kinda hard to be criminal selling meth or some such when paying for that big shipment requires a completely trackable transaction.   Steal something like say a car, part it out and go sell the parts?  Well, here's the IRS asking what all these little deposits from random people are.  

Now, rich people hiding their money or not paying taxes - that's gonna be hard too.   

So on the one hand you can say you'll catch all the evil criminals.  On the other hand you can say you'll tax all the evil rich.  In reality it'll be as @lynx29 said, the guy doing work on the side mowing someone's lawn for an extra 30 bucks or fixing someone's hot water heater for 100 bucks are the ones that'll take the hit - not to mention the people paying them.   No, you'll need to either figure out how to do it yourself or pay a big company to do it for you.  

Oh, wait, did you buy a hot water heater and install it yourself? 

Did you get a permit for that? ...  ....   .....


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 25, 2021)

Just checked the stats... The plunge continues...


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Jun 25, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> I won't be.  It's kind of like the apocalypse or end times:  folks keep predicting the end/collapse, and it stubbornly refuses to show up in an appropriately timely fashion.  Then the date gets moved.  That's not to say it _won't_ collapse at some point; that possibility is very real.
> 
> The quote from the linked article that stuck out to me was:
> 
> ...


The thing with predicting the apocalypse, a term that is chronically misunderstood and incorrectly used to refer to a time period, is that those same predictors fail to realize that it is imminent & occurs within a specific "season" of time without warning. As with the crypto-currency market, by the time individuals heavily invested in it recognize a crash for what it is, it will already be too late.


----------



## The red spirit (Jun 25, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> that's what I was thinking.  so many people get by in life just by doing odd jobs helping a friend move and getting paid in $20 cash, etc.  cash just makes it easier.
> 
> In a country like America, if you announced a no cash based system, I would be very surprised if you don't get voted out of office in a recall and replaced with someone who is for cash in the next cycle.
> 
> It would be political suicide. lol   and it wouldn't change anything because it would get reversed in 4 years.  so yeah, nothing to worry about there.


To be honest, it would be stupid anywhere


----------



## trog100 (Jun 25, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Just checked the stats... The plunge continues...



no it dosnt its leveled off just above 31K.. come tomorrow it will be back up to around 34K pretty much keeping in the narrow band i thought it would.. 

plunge my arse.. he he he

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 25, 2021)

trog100 said:


> no it dosnt its leveled off just above 31K.


Once again, look at the 7day, 30day and 3 month trends.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 26, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Once again, look at the 7day, 30day and 3 month trends.



it dosnt matter what you look at lex.. the plunge (from the peak)  is not continuing.. it stopped at around 30K and has been going sideways in a narrow band ever since..

from here it may go down further or it may go up.. nobody knows for sure..  i think it will go up and you "hope" it will go down.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 26, 2021)

trog100 said:


> it dosnt matter what you look at lex.. the plunge (from the peak) is not continuing..


What? Are you blind?









						Bitcoin Price Today - BTC to USD Live - Crypto | Coinranking
					

View the Bitcoin (BTC) price live in US dollar (USD). Today's value and price history. Discover info about market cap, trading volume and supply.




					coinranking.com
				











						Ethereum Price Today - ETH to USD Live - Crypto | Coinranking
					

View the Ethereum (ETH) price live in US dollar (USD). Today's value and price history. Discover info about market cap, trading volume and supply.




					coinranking.com
				



Visit, read, learn. That is all.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 26, 2021)

its gone down a little more overnight.. i didnt think it would but it has.. 

30/31K is seen as the critical support level.. we will see what the end of the day brings..

lex and his plunge may well continue.. 

trog


----------



## Metroid (Jun 26, 2021)

This will keep crashing litle by little then will crash a lot, people buying it now will regret very soon.


----------



## mb194dc (Jun 26, 2021)

Government stimulus is running down and therefore so goes the crypto "market". It's really as simple as that?

You can pretty much plot the free money hand outs with the price rise and fall.


----------



## Nash (Jun 26, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> What? Are you blind?
> Visit, read, learn. That is all.



Comon' 31.1 is not a purge, switch to weekly and watch the flats, stability is important when trading is high.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 26, 2021)

Nash said:


> Comon' 31.1 is not a purge, switch to weekly and watch the flats, stability is important when trading is high.



lex picks whatever time period suits his crypto negative agenda the best.. but so far bitcoin is still holding above 31K nicely..

bitcoin is being traded between 31 and 35K.. the pattern is quite obvious.. the support and resistance levels are quite strong.. i think it could stay this way for quite some time.. 

trog


----------



## Nash (Jun 26, 2021)

trog100 said:


> lex picks whatever time period suits his crypto negative agenda the best.. but so far bitcoin is still holding above 31K nicely..
> 
> bitcoin is being traded between 31 and 35K.. the pattern is quite obvious.. the support and resistance levels are quite strong.. i think it could stay this way for quite some time..
> 
> trog



Lol

This is from Coindesk this morning - repeating the same thing we've been saying all week!

Upside remains limited given the downward sloping 50-day moving average, showing added resistance at $40,000.
The relative strength index (RSI), however, registered a series of higher lows, which means the two-month downtrend is slowing as buyers return.
Bitcoin remains stuck in a range between $30,000 and $40,000 with no clear signs of an ultimate price low. The weekly chart is not yet oversold, meaning sellers remain in control despite short-term relief rallies.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 26, 2021)

trog100 said:


> lex and his plunge may well continue..


"My" plunge?  


Nash said:


> Comon' 31.1 is not a purge, switch to weekly and watch the flats, stability is important when trading is high.


Absolute rubbish! Dropping 13.6% and 21.8% inside of a week and 20.1% and 36.9% in a month is a valuation "plunge" by ANYONES standard, regardless of market.


trog100 said:


> lex picks whatever time period suits his crypto negative agenda the best.. but so far bitcoin is still holding above 31K nicely..
> 
> bitcoin is being traded between 31 and 35K.. the pattern is quite obvious.. the support and resistance levels are quite strong.. i think it could stay this way for quite some time..


Aww, that was adorable. Strike a nerve did I? 


Nash said:


> Lol
> 
> This is from Coindesk this morning - repeating the same thing we've been saying all week!
> 
> ...


Oh Coindesk? I wonder what THEIR charts look like?








						Bitcoin
					

Bitcoin USD price, real-time (live) charts, news and videos. Learn about BTC value, bitcoin cryptocurrency, crypto trading, and more.




					www.coindesk.com
				











						Ethereum
					

Features real-time (live) charts, ethereum blockchain, news and videos. Learn about ETH, the current hashrate, crypto trading and more.




					www.coindesk.com
				



Hmm, what a shocker.

The plunge continues...


----------



## Nash (Jun 26, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> "My" plunge?
> 
> Absolute rubbish! Dropping 13.6% and 21.8% inside of a week and 20.1% and 36.9% in a month is a valuation "plunge" by ANYONES standard, regardless of market.
> 
> ...



So "Bitcoin remains stuck in a range" is a purge. 

Okay!! 
Although it sounds like lamentations from someone who's purchased a little too much Bitcoin for comfort.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 27, 2021)

not much plunging going on at the moment.. another day and bitcoin is still going sideways at just below 33K...

a 1 year chart shows it  up by 260% and a 3 year chart up by 425%.. make of this what you will..

anybody in it long term would love to see another "plunge" it means they can accumulate more at a lower price.. 

trog


----------



## Nash (Jun 27, 2021)

That 40 to 64k looks unreal.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 27, 2021)

Nash said:


> That 40 to 64k looks unreal.
> 
> View attachment 205616



What's amazing about that chart is how symmetrical it is thus far.  

My guess here is that it will not remain symmetrical.  

In the end it will probably look like pretty much every other market in existence has looked during a fall.  Note the similarities in these charts below.  There is a fairly large counter-trend (up) rally in each case, followed by a long final decline.  

This is essentially why I'm saying, a rally from here on BTC will probably be followed by a plunge and then a slower and longer decline.  The big difference with BTC is that it moves much faster than these other markets.  

Nevertheless, it will likely have the same pattern and you're probably looking at another year or so of pain for BTC - perhaps much more.  Keep in mind it took a decade ore more for the NASDAQ and Nikkei to fully unwind.

Here is the Nikkei 225 in 1989-1992, 60% drop.  The Nikkei actually did not bottom until 2008, 19 years after the top.  







And the 2000 .com implosion on the NASDAQ, 75% drop.  The NASDAQ also very nearly hit its 2003 *lows *again in 2009, with no new high.   Factor in inflation and the stock market was a big loser for a decade.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Jun 28, 2021)

I see the Plunge is taking place..

Fiat is Fraud anybody? 









						Fiat is a Fraud, Buy Bitcoin Says Billionaire Salinas
					

"Fiat is a fraud. Look, I started my career in 1981, the Mexican Peso was 20 to $1. Today we




					www.trustnodes.com


----------



## trog100 (Jun 28, 2021)

bitcoin up 5.5% at just under 35K and eth up 11.5% at 2050.. 

"the plunge continues".. he he

trog


----------



## Nash (Jun 28, 2021)

trog100 said:


> *bitcoin up* 5.5% at just under 35K and eth up 11.5% at 2050..





trog100 said:


> "the plunge continues".. he he
> 
> trog



You knew it would. 77 bitcoins mined.  

FTW


----------



## Chomiq (Jun 28, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin up 5.5% at just under 35K and eth up 11.5% at 2050..
> 
> "the plunge continues".. he he
> 
> trog


To the moo...


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 28, 2021)

Nash said:


> View attachment 205766


Nice but this is a price discussion thread.


----------



## Nash (Jun 28, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Nice but this is a price discussion thread.



Nice, thumpers and charters, projectors and decriers ok, and without the resource there is nothing to price.
*Meanwhile,* China crypto crackdown wipes $400 billion off market, BTC slides (cnbc.com)

BTC plunging upward @ $34,160.52


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 28, 2021)

Nash said:


> Nice, thumpers and charters, projectors and decriers ok,



Yep, that's the topic in a nutshell.  It is what it is   We have other topics for other things.


----------



## Nash (Jun 28, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Yep, that's the topic in a nutshell.  It is what it is   We have other topics for other things.



Nah, I won't agree with that for one second, the topic is a product of mining.


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 28, 2021)

Nash said:


> Nah, I won't agree with that for one second, the topic is a product of mining.


Sorry, you don't get to decide the topic.

The topic is "Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion"


----------



## Nash (Jun 28, 2021)

I disagree. Hit the ignore button!~

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance banned by UK regulator (cnbc.com)


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 28, 2021)

Nash said:


> I disagree. Hit the ignore button!~
> 
> Cryptocurrency exchange Binance banned by UK regulator (cnbc.com)



The initial regulatory actions to ban bitcoin might actually increase the value.  Look at what happened to the prices of  Dr. Seuss books recently.

Along those lines, BTC is maintaining a bullish bias with bottom momentum divergences in the short term.  I think we will see 40-45K before we see a new low, and it's possible it could go higher :


----------



## trog100 (Jun 28, 2021)

eth seems to be doing well.. up near 15% on the day..

its outpacing bitoin which is only up about 5%..

i would like to see eth do well it helps my mining returns.. he he

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 28, 2021)

I mean the





RandallFlagg said:


> The initial regulatory actions to ban bitcoin might actually increase the value. Look at what happened to the prices of Dr. Seuss books recently.



Agreed.  In that vein his posts on those news articles were ontopic.  I was refering to a deleted image he posted of a mining farm being offtopic.

And yes, I do believe Chinas widescale seizure of bitcoin is effecting the price positively.  There is less to satisfy demand.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 28, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Nice but this is a price discussion thread.


It's a "Value and Market Trend" discussion.



R-T-B said:


> Sorry, you don't get to decide the topic.


No, but I do. And that's what it says... It hasn't changed since I created it for this topic of discussion. Nash's post, IIRC, was fine. Why it was deleted is a mystery to me...

Or did I miss something? Perhaps I'm not understanding what the problem is?



Nash said:


> I disagree. Hit the ignore button!~


Be nice. R-T-B is a good guy.


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 28, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Nash's post, IIRC, was fine.


A random picture of a large scale miner with no commentary?

Let's just move on, shall we?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 28, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> A random picture of a large scale miner with no commentary?
> 
> Let's just move on, shall we?


Right, not what I remembered. Moving on..


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 28, 2021)

Since when are OPs also thread Mods? LOL. This thread is sorta garbage now anyway. It's just two sides arguing about how crypto will crash/moon and how each side is stupid for investing/not investing. The old thread that was closed for NO GOOD REASON was better and also killed all the momentum in that thread. Now we just have 2 sides bickering and trying to one up each other. And that is also why I am unwatching. You would think on a tech site like this crypto currency would be a pretty interesting, deep topic but instead it's just "ur stupidz 4 not doin what i did" in the most passive aggressive ways possible.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 28, 2021)

ZenZimZaliben said:


> Since when are OPs also thread Mods? LOL. This thread is sorta garbage now anyway. It's just two sides arguing about how crypto will crash/moon and how each side is stupid for investing/not investing. The old thread that was closed for NO GOOD REASON was better and also killed all the momentum in that thread. Now we just have 2 sides bickering and trying to one up each other. And that is also why I am unwatching. You would think on a tech site like this crypto currency would be a pretty interesting, deep topic but instead it's just "ur stupidz 4 not doin what i did" in the most passive aggressive ways possible.



I know right? Stop the bickering. This thread is to help people make money. I missed the last bounce. Help me make 10% again. Come on!


----------



## trog100 (Jun 28, 2021)

i am just posting my own take on what is happening or likely to happen price wise.. 

having said that going sideways is boring.. not a lot can be done about that.. 

eth might take a jump but i recon its sideways for bitcoin for a while..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 28, 2021)

ZenZimZaliben said:


> Since when are OPs also thread Mods?


OP's define the topic of discussion. Don't like it, too bad. Let it go.



trog100 said:


> i am just posting my own take on what is happening or likely to happen price wise..
> 
> having said that going sideways is boring.. not a lot can be done about that..
> 
> ...


The over-all trend is on the down slope. It would take a number of jumps over a period of time to change that slope.


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 28, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> The over-all trend is on the down slope. It would take a number of jumps over a period of time to change that slope.


Depends on the metric you use.  YTD is still up, is it not?


----------



## ZenZimZaliben (Jun 28, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I know right? Stop the bickering. This thread is to help people make money. I missed the last bounce. Help me make 10% again. Come on!



You are wrong about thread, you are not a mod and I did "let it go" by unwatching. Peace out. Only reason I responded was you mentioned me. So, try not to do that again. K. Thanks.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 29, 2021)

i do believe that people who read this thread are aware of the built in coiner no coiner bias that exists and can make allowances for it..

i am a coiner and openly declare my bias.. i think its time the no coiners did the same think.. 

talk it up talk it down.. the crypto scene is rife with it.. first look at who is saying it and then figure why they are saying it.. 

the last thread got wrongly closed this one will probably go the same way... he he..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 29, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Depends on the metric you use.  YTD is still up, is it not?


True! Hugely up. But watching the trends, the slope is on the down..


trog100 said:


> the last thread got wrongly closed this one will probably go the same way... he he..


As long as we stay civilized that will not be needed.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jun 29, 2021)

ZenZimZaliben said:


> You are wrong about thread, you are not a mod and I did "let it go" by unwatching. Peace out. Only reason I responded was you mentioned me. So, try not to do that again. K. Thanks.


I think you quoted the wrong person...


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 29, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i do believe that people who read this thread are aware of the built in coiner no coiner bias that exists and can make allowances for it..
> 
> i am a coiner and openly declare my bias.. i think its time the no coiners did the same think..
> 
> ...



Why so divisive?   One does not need to be pro nor con on the topic to have an opinion or view on the market.  Are you pro or con FAANG stocks?  How about companies that own pipelines?  Over the road transports?  Rail?   These all compete with one another, do you have a preference?    It doesn't make any sense to interject political / personal views into market analysis.   

Now, that is not to say that politics and in particular policy doesn't influence it  For example the transportation industries I just listed move oil.  This administration is clearly anti-pipeline, and pro rail in particular pro BNSF due to its relationship with Pelosi.  That may (and actually, has) affect policy hence the market, regardless of what you or I think of pipelines or the politics involved.


----------



## 95Viper (Jun 29, 2021)

Stay on the topic!
Stop your bickering.
Report problems, as the guidelines state.  The moderation team will do the moderating.



> *Reporting and complaining*
> All posts and private messages have a "report post" button on the bottom of the post, click it when you feel something is inappropriate. Do not use your report as a "wild card invitation" to go back and add to the drama and therefore become part of the problem.





> *Threads that should/will be closed*
> Threads of malicious, spiteful or toxic intent against any user, group or company.
> This may include a thread going off topic with posts that include the above depending on how the community is responding.
> Threads initiating any kind of trolling, drama or issue publicly against the moderation team or TPU staff. If you have a problem with the mods, as stated above, contact them privately.
> If the moderation team or staff starts a thread for feedback, we will then maintain it until it is no longer necessary at which point it will be locked.


Guidelines say it all.
Thank You and Have a Civil, On-Topic Discussion


----------



## trog100 (Jun 29, 2021)

bitcoin is now at over 35K and eth at around 2150.. i call this sideways and slightly upwards..

the main point here is that bitcoin resisted the much predicted dive down below 30K over the weekend.. 

eth is doing a tad better than bitcoin.. in fact its doing quite nicely..

trog


----------



## ppn (Jun 29, 2021)

Well it looks pretty standart so far, with one big fake bullrun buying opportunity before it finally succumbs I guess.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jun 29, 2021)

The thing is this "hodl" mentality has been cemented pretty well into people's psyche during this past decade. People will keep buying no matter what, metrics from exchanges show that there are almost always more buyers of BTC than sellers irrespective of market conditions. 

Of course the thing is these are mostly retail investors, meaning they have very little capital so that's why prices barely budge even though the buy/sell ratio might be 80/20 after a crash. The only question is when or if big players will decide to pump the price again. 

This isn't a problem in particular if you recognize these patterns, it's important you realize this because you can, in fact, profit from it. Though most will continue to be cannon fodder having never realized any real profits.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 29, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> The thing is this "hodl" mentality has been cemented pretty well into people's psyche during this past decade. People will keep buying no matter what, metrics from exchanges show that there are almost always more buyers of BTC than sellers irrespective of market conditions.
> 
> Of course the thing is these are mostly retail investors, meaning they have very little capital so that's why prices barely budge even though the buy/sell ratio might be 80/20 after a crash. The only question is when or if big players will decide to pump the price again.
> 
> This isn't a problem in particular if you recognize these patterns, it's important you realize this because you can, in fact, profit from it. Though most will continue to be cannon fodder having never realized any real profits.



bitcoin is a big boys thing.. buy and hold and you cant lose.. dabble short term and you can.. 

trog


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 29, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin is a big boys thing.. buy and hold and you cant lose.. dabble short term and you can..
> 
> trog



Thing is, you can't hold forever.  The whole idea of investing is to get a return.  Otherwise, it's like burying a safe full of gold (or whatever) under your house and never digging it up.  Sure, you've got $5M in gold in the ground, but it's functionally worthless if you dont' do anything with it.  And you _can _lose.  You can _always_ lose. No market or asset is a sure bet. Some are closer than others, but the bottom can always drop out, and there's no guarantee it'll come back up. You can manage that risk, but there is no such thing as "can't lose".


----------



## trog100 (Jun 29, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Thing is, you can't hold forever.  The whole idea of investing is to get a return.  Otherwise, it's like burying a safe full of gold (or whatever) under your house and never digging it up.  Sure, you've got $5M in gold in the ground, but it's functionally worthless if you dont' do anything with it.  And you _can _lose.  You can _always_ lose. No market or asset is a sure bet. Some are closer than others, but the bottom can always drop out, and there's no guarantee it'll come back up. You can manage that risk, but there is no such thing as "can't lose".



i dont think i said hold for ever.. there may well come a point where some of the accumulated assets get disposed of..

the main thing is you need to be in position where you can afford to hold the bulk of your stash.. even traders should have a hodle bag that they never dip into..

i am not going to sell my crypto.. i am also in a position where i dont need to..

dabbling for short tern gain is just as likely to lose money as gain it..

i am holding and adding to my bitcoin stash with mining.. i dont envisage losing money by doing this..

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jun 29, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i dont think i said hold for ever.. there may well come a point where some of the accumulated assets get disposed of..
> 
> the main thing is you need to be in position where you can afford to hold the bulk of your stash.. even traders should have a hodle bag that they never dip into..
> 
> ...



It's pretty silly to keep stating something as if it were fact when it demonstrably is not.

Even if you were investing in an ETF on an market index, you can continuously lose money for a decade or (far) more.  This is especially true when one realizes that an ETF is not an index, and the indexes are not static.  Companies go bankrupt, get de-listed, and replaced.  The ETF takes a hit that is not reflected on the index. 

If anything, BTC would be more akin to investing in an individual stock.  That's more dangerous, I can show you hundreds of stocks that never recovered from the 2000 .com implosion.   Many are household names in tech, for example Cisco which is trading about 35% below its 2000 peak.  HP just bounced off its 2000 high and quickly cratered.  Intel currently trades about 30% lower than its 2000 peak, despite its best years as far as tech and growth potential were arguably in 2008-2014 when it had both the best nodes and best microarch. 

Just as Vya said, buy and hold blindly is a sales pitch.  It's a lie.  Reality is quite different.   Some people can learn this through observation and research, some must experience it themselves.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 29, 2021)

historically speaking with bitcoin it definitely is.. okay nothing is for ever.. i could get run over by a bus tomorrow.. 

i dont buy stocks and shares and i dont gamble.. but i am definitle gonna hodle my bitcoin litecoin and eth.. he he..

i agree that selling at the peaks and buying back in at the dips would make more money.. but simple hodling will do for me..

trog


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Jun 29, 2021)

Whether this stuff goes up more or crashes hard is anyone's guess. I think the time to go all in on crypto for big cash gains has long passed. My opinion would be to sell most or all of it now if you have a significant amount of cryptocurrency and have already made huge gains from it. While the rewards can be just as good "if" it skyrockets in value while holding on to it, I don't see the point of risking all current gains on uncertain "hopeful gains" with a volatile investment unless you have money to throw away & don't care about risk. 
While I do foresee society going to a completely cashless computer-based monetary system(yes, its going to happen), there's really no way of knowing how its going to take shape in order to take advantage of it and be able to invest accordingly.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 1, 2021)

thursday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin is at 33.5 K.. still going sideways with eth doing a little better than bitcoin..

not a lot happening and this sideways movement could continue for a while.. i think it will but that is just my own oppinion.. 

trog


----------



## basco (Jul 1, 2021)

i am still hodling.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 1, 2021)

Hi,
Yeah if you waited this long no point in selling now
60k yeah that was the time to sell, buy more gear atm stores like micro center is getting gpu's again in stock limited supply of course


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 2, 2021)

trog100 said:


> thursday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin is at 33.5 K.. still going sideways with eth doing a little better than bitcoin..
> 
> not a lot happening and this sideways movement could continue for a while.. i think it will but that is just my own oppinion..
> 
> trog


The trend suggests that the downslope continues. The "plunge" might be over. There are hints of a valuation plateau for Bitcoin proper. Eth is anyones guess ATM. That plunge is likely to continue...


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jul 2, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> The trend suggests that the downslope continues. The "plunge" might be over. There are hints of a valuation plateau for Bitcoin proper. Eth is anyones guess ATM. That plunge is likely to continue...



My issue with trends in crypto is history.  Randall's fitted some well-known patterns onto the curves here and there (although often without a timescale  ), but crypto's so volatile that it's hard to take any sort of prediction seriously with so little past performance to go on.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 3, 2021)

saturday morning..

bitcoin heading upwards to 35K.. up around 10% from a week ago.. 

eth is just over 2200 up 25% from its low a week ago.. 

still going sideways in my book but if there is a short term trend its up.. a longer term trend is waiting to appear..  i think sideways for a while is on the cards.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 3, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i think sideways for a while is on the cards..


The over-all trend is on the down-slope still but that has slowed. You might be right with it going sideways.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 5, 2021)

well.. bitcoin and eth are still going sideways.. not a lot of change.. i still expect more sideways for a while..

trog


----------



## ppn (Jul 5, 2021)

clearly crashing following 2 tangents or whatever you may call it, one is tilted 60 degree till it loses 70% of the value ~~1000euro levels, then jump to 2000, then 30 degree slowly drain the money out of the system to the real bottom.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 5, 2021)

Moving inside a trend channel.  

I think this is just a retrace on the down move from 6/15-6/22.  It hit an almost exact 61.8% retrace (Fibonacci ratio) of that 6/15-6/22 decline.  So, it may be getting ready to move to new lows.  









Looks like bear flag so far :


----------



## freeagent (Jul 5, 2021)

As much as I wanted a GPU, I didn’t want to see people lose their money. I’m not that kind of guy.. had to think about that for a sec.. but you guys were saving me money by letting me pay back my debt because I refused to pay over retail and did without lol.. 

If the very least, I hope you guys break even on your hardware and hydro consumption. Of course I do wish more for you.. but my middle name is not Nostradamus unfortunately..


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 5, 2021)

freeagent said:


> I didn’t want to see people lose their money. I’m not that kind of guy..


I am! People need to invest their money in better things and leave PC hardware to the PC market. I couldn't care less about ASICs, no problems there...


----------



## trog100 (Jul 7, 2021)

wednesday morning and bitcoin and eth are still moving sideways basically moving between 32 and 35 K... not a lot happening.. 

trog


----------



## Vayra86 (Jul 7, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Actually more like long live physical cash.


This. It is essential to our freedom.

Plus I think we won't be abandoning physical cash. Far too many places on earth that still rely on it, which is easy to forget.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 7, 2021)

BTC continues to test its lower trend channel - 4hr charts.

Previous post :




Currently :


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 7, 2021)

I think trog might be right, most coins seem to be plateauing. YFI is back on top though..


----------



## trog100 (Jul 7, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> I think trog might be right, most coins seem to be plateauing. YFI is back on top though..



i think we may be looking at a new bitcoin general price level.. it dosnt have to keep doing dramatic price fluctuations.. the fomo driven buying is over.. the fud driven selling is over.. the volatility has gone out of the market.. its settled..

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 7, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i think we may be looking at a new bitcoin general price level.. it dosnt have to keep doing dramatic price fluctuations.. the fomo driven buying is over.. the fud driven selling is over.. the volatility has gone out of the market.. its settled..
> 
> trog



All markets are driven by fear and greed.   Declaring that those forces are over is bizarre.  The market is simply nearing a short term decision point, nothing more.  One camp will win, and the other will lose, and then the game will go on.









						Managing Fear and Greed In The Markets - Forex Training Group
					

Fear is a potent emotion. It can increase your adrenaline and make you feel very uncomfortable. Managing your fears comes with experience. For example,




					forextraininggroup.com


----------



## trog100 (Jul 7, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> All markets are driven by fear and greed.   Declaring that those forces are over is bizarre.  The market is simply nearing a short term decision point, nothing more.  One camp will win, and the other will lose, and then the game will go on.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



lets just say the forces you mention are having a little rest before the next event.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 8, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i think we may be looking at a new bitcoin general price level..


Maybe. But...


trog100 said:


> the fomo driven buying is over.. the fud driven selling is over.. the volatility has gone out of the market.. its settled..


..it's WAY to early to call this one. Especially with many governments all over the world currently working on mining restrictions and legal code to regulate transactions. Right now it's floating sideways. There is a very good chance that will not last, as hinted by this mornings plummet.


----------



## ppn (Jul 8, 2021)

of course it looks like going sideways, they want to pull out of it and land this plane gracefully, not crash it. just look at the all time chart, it's a 60 degree slide for the last 60 days with all kinds of mornings plummets, and evening pumps but overall. going sideways is a delusional non sense. the whole thing is being kept afloat because of constant transfusions between the other coins and bitcoins, and it's pulling itself like climbing on a ladder, left hand right hand, pump the ETH, pump BTC and creates the illusion it's going up because the right hand receives unproportionally huge boost out of it. but the monthly pump of ETH that usually starts around 24-26th has probably peaked now. it has nothing to do with governments or bans. just the easy money flow is gone.


----------



## basco (Jul 8, 2021)

and its summer in europe.
peeps have other things in mind then crypto after this covid shutdown frenzy.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 8, 2021)

thursday morning.. bitcoin and eth took a little dip overnight but remain in the narrow 31 to 35 K band.. the euro stock markets are all in the red and gold is moving higher..

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 8, 2021)

Trog jinxed it with that permanently high plateau Irving Fisher talk.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 8, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Trog jinxed it with that permanently high plateau Irving Fisher talk.


Yeah, this mornings tallies are showing a whole lot of fall-off..


----------



## trog100 (Jul 8, 2021)

anything between 31 and 35 K is sideways to me.. movement up and down between this narrow channel is how its been for a while.. basically sideways..

trog

ps.. just to add.. a break down and hold below 30K or a break up and hold above 36K would be needed for me to consider this sideways pattern to be over.. so far it continues..


----------



## trog100 (Jul 11, 2021)

sunday morning and things are still well and truly stuck in that sideways pattern between 31 and 35K... 

it could go down it could go up or it could keep doing what its doing.. in truth nobody knows.. he he

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 13, 2021)

CPI came in at 0.9% for the month of June (single month).  5.4% YoY, 3.7% in the last 4 months.  Annualized this would be over 11% inflation.  

Note: these are month over month increases -

"The food index increased 0.8% in June, a larger increase than the 0.4-percent increase reported for May. The energy index increased 1.5% in June, with the gasoline index rising 2.5% over the month."

Markets are going to be quite unhappy here.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 15, 2021)

another thurrday morning and bitcoin is still stuck firmly in that narrow sideways band.. eth down slightly but not much.. gold is on the rise.. the stock markets are flat..

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Jul 15, 2021)

trog100 said:


> another thurrday morning and bitcoin is still stuck firmly in that narrow sideways band.. eth down slightly but not much.. gold is on the rise.. the stock markets are flat..
> 
> trog


are you still mining with nicehash?

I have gone with ezil.me.  I get both ETH and ZIL.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 15, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> are you still mining with nicehash?
> 
> I have gone with ezil.me.  I get both ETH and ZIL.



yes i am still using nicehash and letting my bitcoin stash slowly grow.. hoping of course that at some point bitcoins price will go much higher.. 

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Jul 15, 2021)

trog100 said:


> yes i am still using nicehash and letting my bitcoin stash slowly grow.. hoping of course that at some point bitcoins price will go much higher..
> 
> trog



Have you thought about staking your BTC?


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 15, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Maybe we are seeing the swap to ETH as leading crypto; BTC cant really compete on a technology level soon, or so people think.


BTC is the crypto version of Biden's art.  You aren't buying it because it is good (or useful in btc context), you buy it for the name.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 16, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> Have you thought about staking your BTC?



no i havnt gone into it much.. but really i just mine and hodle for the future.. kind of boring really.. he he..

trog

ps.. bitcoin is getting very close to the bottom of its narrow band.. the general thinking is that if it breaks below 30K it could go a fair bit lower.. i dont think it will but that is just my thinking..


----------



## sepheronx (Jul 16, 2021)

trog100 said:


> no i havnt gone into it much.. but really i just mine and hodle for the future.. kind of boring really.. he he..
> 
> trog
> 
> ps.. bitcoin is getting very close to the bottom of its narrow band.. the general thinking is that if it breaks below 30K it could go a fair bit lower.. i dont think it will but that is just my thinking..



you worried?

It will adjust up, then down, then up, then down, then....


----------



## trog100 (Jul 16, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> you worried?
> 
> It will adjust up, then down, then up, then down, then....



the plus side of long term hodling is short term ups and downs dont matter that much.. its where it will be at the end of the year that matters and currently that is anybodies guess.. 

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 16, 2021)

trog100 said:


> the plus side of long term hodling is short term ups and downs dont matter that much.. its where it will be at the end of the year that matters and currently that is anybodies guess..
> 
> trog



One year, or 6 months as you say, is not in any financial context I'm aware of considered long term holding.   There's a reason financial advisors generally tell people to start edging away from stocks and into safer assets like CDs and treasuries at 50 when retirement is 12-15 years away.  Usually when you are ~5 years from retirement, you want to be 80% safe investments with little or no chance of capital loss.  Even if I assume BTC is going to be a good long term investment, it's unlikely to be any less risky - probably much more so.


----------



## ThrashZone (Jul 16, 2021)

Hi,
I'd think cashing out on the high for more gear would be better long term then sitting pat on current hardware 
Thought it was about expanding and producing more coin seeing gpu's are beginning to be cheaper at local stores than scalperbay


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 16, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> One year, or 6 months as you say, is not in any financial context I'm aware of considered long term holding.   There's a reason financial advisors generally tell people to start edging away from stocks and into safer assets like CDs and treasuries at 50 when retirement is 12-15 years away.  Usually when you are ~5 years from retirement, you want to be 80% safe investments with little or no chance of capital loss.  Even if I assume BTC is going to be a good long term investment, it's unlikely to be any less risky - probably much more so.


In the crypto realm, 6-months is long term. I have seen some of the sales pitch from a newsletter that holding time is just a matter of days.



ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> I'd think cashing out on the high for more gear would be better long term then sitting pat on current hardware
> Thought it was about expanding and producing more coin seeing gpu's are beginning to be cheaper at local stores than scalperbay


I have seen quite a few outlets that have preached Bitcoin will reach $250k and beyond within a year. Perhaps some folks want to hold on the coins for that? Don't know.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I have seen quite a few outlets that have preached Bitcoin will reach $250k and beyond within a year. Perhaps some folks want to hold on the coins for that? Don't know.



I just hope countries start taxing the living **** out of all crypto more than they already do. dat OG called government about to start makin that money, Hunter need more money for the strip clubs bois!!!!   tanks and jets and aircraft carriers that's the power my dawgs.  fiat funds it and soon more tax on crypto will fund it more

she climbin that pole oooooooooo


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 16, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> In the crypto realm, 6-months is long term.


But not in the real world, that was the point..


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 16, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> But not in the real world, that was the point..


Not really though, because if you invest in crypto and enter into that realm, you play by a different set of rules.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Not really though, because if you invest in crypto and enter into that realm, you play by a different set of rules.



your banking on government not taxing it heavily in the future though (more than it already taxes it)    everything is a gamble.

and if you don't think they don't know you have crypto, I think people are going to be very very surprised in the coming years. I wouldn't be surprised if IRS already has secret ways to collect and tie IP addresses to crypto wallets / websites.  hehehehe


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 16, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> your banking on government not taxing it heavily in the future though (more than it already taxes it)    everything is a gamble.
> 
> and if you don't think they don't know you have crypto, I think people are going to be very very surprised in the coming years. I wouldn't be surprised if IRS already has secret ways to collect and tie IP addresses to crypto wallets / websites.  hehehehe



Dude, have you been smoking? I have no idea what your last 2 posts have any relevance to what is being discussed. I still like you though. 

I invest through RobinHood, and yeah they sure know about me.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Dude, have you been smoking? I have no idea what your last 2 posts have any relevance to what is being discussed. I still like you though.
> 
> I invest through RobinHood, and yeah they sure know about me.




no smoking for me g.  I just think as inflation continues to skyrocket, government will be looking for other sources of taxation... and crypto is ripe for the picking "national security reasons"  "climate change reasons" they will be just fine when it comes to finding a reason.

I am honestly surprised they haven't legalized weed at federal level yet and taxed crap out of it to pay off their lack of budgeting skills.  lol


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 16, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I just hope countries start taxing the living **** out of all crypto more than they already do. dat OG called government about to start makin that money, Hunter need more money for the strip clubs bois!!!!   tanks and jets and aircraft carriers that's the power my dawgs.  fiat funds it and soon more tax on crypto will fund it more
> 
> she climbin that pole oooooooooo


I can tell you are unhappy about your life.  You constantly want to take everything else from others.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 16, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> I can tell you are unhappy about your life.  You constantly want to take everything else from others.



not at all, heading to lakes tomorrow to go boating actually.

just speaking the truth bud.  government will come a knockin soon I promise   they always want a bigger piece of that pie.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 16, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> not at all, heading to lakes tomorrow to go boating actually.
> 
> just speaking the truth bud.  government will come a knockin soon I promise   they always want a bigger piece of that pie.



and i am off to north west scotland for three weeks touring in my RV.. we call them caravans over here but they are the same thing.. 

diesel fuel costs the equivalent of $10 dollars per gallon in the UK.. hows about that for tax.. he he

trog


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 17, 2021)

trog100 said:


> and i am off to north west scotland for three weeks touring in my RV.. we call them caravans over here but they are the same thing..
> 
> diesel fuel costs the equivalent of $10 dollars per gallon in the UK.. hows about that for tax.. he he
> 
> trog



you just proved my point. when their coffers start hurting too bad, they always find something to tax   

and have fun mate, that sounds lovely indeed!


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> they always want a bigger piece of that pie.


I'm confused why you don't think we already pay taxes.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 17, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I'm confused why you don't think we already pay taxes.



did you not read what I wrote? apparently not. a few posts up I said they will tax it more than what they already tax.  ;p


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> did you not read what I wrote? apparently not. a few posts up I said they will tax it more than what they already tax.  ;p


They can only tax profits.  By definition all they can do is make it less worth your time, not outright unprofitable.  It's already not worth my time.  It's just a moonshoot for me at this point.  I'll pay whatever they want.  Tax would change nothing.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Not really though, because if you invest in crypto and enter into that realm, you play by a different set of rules.


That was the point. It not the real world of finance. It just glorified gambling.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 17, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> That was the point. It not the real world of finance. It just glorified gambling.


There you go.  It has been spoken.  You must kneel and accept.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 17, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> That was the point. It not the real world of finance. It just glorified gambling.



The real world of finance?! Please don't make laugh like that. Honestly, before the financial crisis, have you ever heard of derivative swaps? The real world of finance caused the financial crisis in 2008 because they were gambling too. How about that?

This comes to mind when you said that. It does have some truth to it. The real world of finance is what you perceived it to be, what the financial industry/institutions and the government want you to believe.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> The real world of finance?! Please don't make laugh like that. Honestly, before the financial crisis, have you ever heard of derivative swaps? The real world of finance caused the financial crisis in 2008 because they were gambling too. How about that?
> 
> This comes to mind when you said that. It does have some truth to it. The real world of finance is what you perceived it to be, what the financial industry/institutions and the government want you to believe.



That is so silly.

Markets are not much different than they were in Roman times (publicani).  Information moves faster now yes, but structurally not much different.  Even derivatives / options, they have been around longer than the USA has.  

It ain't different this time bud.  But the religious fervor that surrounds that very old an oft repeated belief is most definitely a sign of markets topping out.  BTC included.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 17, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> That is so silly.
> 
> Markets are not much different than they were in Roman times (publicani).  Information moves faster now yes, but structurally not much different.  Even derivatives / options, they have been around longer than the USA has.
> 
> It ain't different this time bud.  But the religious fervor that surrounds that very old an oft repeated belief is most definitely a sign of markets topping out.  BTC included.



Nope.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.c...swaps came into,value stood at $62.2 trillion.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...swap-agreement-and-why-were-swaps-created.asp


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Nope.
> https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/credit-default-swap-cds/#:~:text=Credit default swaps came into,value stood at $62.2 trillion.
> https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...swap-agreement-and-why-were-swaps-created.asp



Next time, make sure you know the difference between a dictionary and a history book.  This shit is most definitely not new.

"*Derivatives *have a fascinating, *10,000-year-old history*. From the ages of Babylonian rulers to medieval times, all the way to present day electronic trading,* various forms of derivatives have had a place in humanity’s financial history*. Based on an agreement around an underlying asset to exchange cash or other commodities within a specified time frame, *derivatives are a way to invest and hedge assets without ever actually needing to possess the asset itself*."









						The History of Derivatives Trading
					

Derivatives have a fascinating, 10,000-year-old history. From the ages of Babylonian rulers to medieval times, all the way to present day…




					medium.com


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 17, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> Next time, make sure you know the difference between a dictionary and a history book.  This shit is most definitely not new.
> 
> "*Derivatives *have a fascinating, *10,000-year-old history*. From the ages of Babylonian rulers to medieval times, all the way to present day electronic trading,* various forms of derivatives have had a place in humanity’s financial history*. Based on an agreement around an underlying asset to exchange cash or other commodities within a specified time frame, *derivatives are a way to invest and hedge assets without ever actually needing to possess the asset itself*."
> 
> ...



I was talking about derivative swaps, not derivatives. Read my original post, man.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 17, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> They can only tax profits.  By definition all they can do is make it less worth your time, not outright unprofitable.  It's already not worth my time.  It's just a moonshoot for me at this point.  I'll pay whatever they want.  Tax would change nothing.



Incorrect, Bernie Sanders has talked several times about taxing every transaction made on wall street, nothing to stop them from saying same about something like Crypto  

Let's wait a few more years when the USD tanks more to hyperinflation, they will be willing to as much damage as they need to crypto, cigs, alcohol, weed, etc etc in extra taxes.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Incorrect, Bernie Sanders has talked several times about taxing every transaction made on wall street, nothing to stop them from saying same about something like Crypto
> 
> Let's wait a few more years when the USD tanks more to hyperinflation, they will be willing to as much damage as they need to crypto, cigs, alcohol, weed, etc etc in extra taxes.



If  I am not mistaken, crypto profit is already being taxed as capital gain. Sure they can tax more, but I doubt it. Too many hedge funds are in it now and there probably will be some lobbying done.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> If  I am not mistaken, crypto profit is already being taxed as capital gain. Sure they can tax more, but I doubt it.* Too many hedge funds are in it now and there probably will be some lobbying done.*



indeed, as Ancient Rome fell from corruption, so to will America, only a matter of time now.  the system has been broken for so long, Medicare and Social Security will begin hemorrhaging within 5-10 years, 6 trillion spent within a year that basically changed nothing on covid, 3.5 trillion more soon on infrastructure and still no way to pay for it outside of tricky language and wealthy paying more over 10 years (they won't, even if they do it won't be enough), nearing 30 trillion in debt, and China big bills come due in in 2025 I believe one of our big big bills come due in full to China with no way to pay it, we haven't even paid for the wars we did 20 years ago.

Imagine telling king henry VIII he could have endless war with france and not worry about paying for it LOL ah the look on his face would have been priceless.

only a matter of time now, that's why Jack Dorsey maximizes a variety of different currencies and I assume passports/citizenships as most rich people do. hehehe


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I was talking about derivative swaps, not derivatives. Read my original post, man.



Read the fist sentence in your link.  It's a derivative, man.  In all reality, it is just insurance on credit default, packaged into a new type of derivative.  But derivative it is.  Put options for example, can be used as a form of insurance against a decline in value of an asset - any asset you can get such an option (derivative) on, not just stocks.  Credit default swaps, when used in a responsible way, provide insurance against credit default.  

From your link : "A credit default swap (CDS) is a type of credit derivative..."

There is nothing new about these instruments.  Same damn thing, new name.

As far as 'why' 2008 happened and blaming mechanical instruments like this, well that's not why.  It happened because people made it happen.  How?  By taking on exponentially excessive levels of risk, a result of greed and the misguided belief that broad-based wealth comes from markets.  

That risky behavior is probably best illustrated here :


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> indeed, as Ancient Rome fell from corruption, so to will America, only a matter of time now.  the system has been broken for so long, Medicare and Social Security will begin hemorrhaging within 5-10 years, 6 trillion spent within a year that basically changed nothing on covid, 3.5 trillion more soon on infrastructure and still no way to pay for it outside of tricky language and wealthy paying more over 10 years (they won't, even if they do it won't be enough), nearing 30 trillion in debt, and China big bills come due in in 2025 I believe one of our big big bills come due in full to China with no way to pay it, we haven't even paid for the wars we did 20 years ago.
> 
> Imagine telling king henry VIII he could have endless war with france and not worry about paying for it LOL ah the look on his face would have been priceless.
> 
> only a matter of time now, that's why Jack Dorsey maximizes a variety of different currencies and I assume passports/citizenships as most rich people do. hehehe


I remember seeing on Bloomberg that the Federal Reserves went from 4 trillion to 7 trillion after Covid, so I checked and it seems we only spent 4.5 trillion on Covid, not 6 trillion.
https://www.usaspending.gov/disaster/covid-19

I believe in digital currency. However, the fact that we can create the digital currency by just mining with GPUs does not sit well with me. The purpose of digital currency seems to be lost in that. I am still trying to understand decentralized finance. This crypto thing is way too disruptive.

Of course, why let Jerome Powell have all the fun? We can print our own money too!



RandallFlagg said:


> Read the fist sentence in your link.  It's a derivative, man.  In all reality, it is just insurance on credit default, packaged into a new type of derivative.  But derivative it is.  Put options for example, can be used as a form of insurance against a decline in value of an asset - any asset you can get such an option (derivative) on, not just stocks.  Credit default swaps, when used in a responsible way, provide insurance against credit default.
> 
> From your link : "A credit default swap (CDS) is a type of credit derivative..."
> 
> ...


I have no interest to argue semantics with you, but the link text clearly stated, "Credit default swaps came into existence in 1994 when they were invented by Blythe Masters from JP Morgan. They became popular in the early 2000s, and by 2007, the outstanding credit default swaps value stood at $62.2 trillion. During the financial crisis of 2008, the value of CDS was hit hard, and it dropped to $26.3 trillion by 2010 and $25.5 trillion in 2012. There was no legal framework to regulate swaps, and the lack of transparency in the market became a concern among regulators."

Believe what you want to believe. The financial engineering being done in our time is far, far more complex than even 100 years ago.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I remember seeing on Bloomberg that the Federal Reserves went from 4 trillion to 7 trillion after Covid, so I checked and it seems we only spent 4.5 trillion on Covid, not 6 trillion.
> https://www.usaspending.gov/disaster/covid-19
> 
> I believe in digital currency. However, the fact that we can create the digital currency by just mining with GPUs does not sit well with me. The purpose of digital currency seems to be lost in that. I am still trying to understand decentralized finance. This crypto thing is way too disruptive.
> ...



It's just another derivative.  That's not a new concept, and it isn't a belief, it's a fact.


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I remember seeing on Bloomberg that the Federal Reserves went from 4 trillion to 7 trillion after Covid, so I checked and it seems we only spent 4.5 trillion on Covid, not 6 trillion.
> https://www.usaspending.gov/disaster/covid-19
> 
> I believe in digital currency. However, the fact that we can create the digital currency by just mining with GPUs does not sit well with me. The purpose of digital currency seems to be lost in that. I am still trying to understand decentralized finance. This crypto thing is way too disruptive.
> ...



Hmm. Not sure why my math was off so badly... perhaps there is other non-covid spending not counted in those numbers but that were still passed in those bills... sort of like they are doing now with infrastructure, by "sneaking" in stuff that literally has nothing to do with bridges/roads/water pipes, etc... when a bill is passed its like a ton of smaller bills all squished together, so I wonder if that number is not including those other bills? or perhaps my number was just off. either way... we are nearing 30 trillion in debt quicker than anyone expected I think... and again we have that big bill due to China in 2025 or 2026 and no way to pay it to my knowledge. I can't seem to find the link where I read that so eh... take that with a grain of salt too, pretty sure I read it somewhere though.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 17, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> It's just another derivative.  That's not a new concept, and it isn't a belief, it's a fact.


Yes, fact. 

"*Credit default swaps came into existence in 1994 when they were invented by Blythe Masters from JP Morgan*. They became popular in the early 2000s, and by 2007, the outstanding credit default swaps value stood at $62.2 trillion. During the financial crisis of 2008, the value of CDS was hit hard, and it dropped to $26.3 trillion by 2010 and $25.5 trillion in 2012. There was no legal framework to regulate swaps, and the lack of transparency in the market became a concern among regulators."



lynx29 said:


> Hmm. Not sure why my math was off so badly... perhaps there is other non-covid spending not counted in those numbers but that were still passed in those bills... sort of like they are doing now with infrastructure, by "sneaking" in stuff that literally has nothing to do with bridges/roads/water pipes, etc... when a bill is passed its like a ton of smaller bills all squished together, so I wonder if that number is not including those other bills? or perhaps my number was just off. either way... we are nearing 30 trillion in debt quicker than anyone expected I think... and again we have that big bill due to China in 2025 or 2026 and no way to pay it to my knowledge. I can't seem to find the link where I read that so eh... take that with a grain of salt too, pretty sure I read it somewhere though.


No worries, it is only a few trillions. Mr. Powell can print that in no time. 

Honestly the financial impact to the US or world wide economies are probably much greater than that.

Enjoy the boat trip!


----------



## Space Lynx (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Yes, fact.
> 
> "*Credit default swaps came into existence in 1994 when they were invented by Blythe Masters from JP Morgan*. They became popular in the early 2000s, and by 2007, the outstanding credit default swaps value stood at $62.2 trillion. During the financial crisis of 2008, the value of CDS was hit hard, and it dropped to $26.3 trillion by 2010 and $25.5 trillion in 2012. There was no legal framework to regulate swaps, and the lack of transparency in the market became a concern among regulators."
> 
> ...



honestly, crypto aside, fiat aside, whatever our preferences and such may be... I honestly just feel bad for all the old people just barely getting by on social security cause they have no retirement... their life is about to become much much harder as inflation goes unchecked... :/  hopefully most of them have the courage to go to local food banks and ask for food at least to get by.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 17, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Incorrect, Bernie Sanders has talked several times about taxing every transaction made on wall street, nothing to stop them from saying same about something like Crypto


I misspoke slightly.  It's not impossible, but completely improbable.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Yes, fact.
> 
> "*Credit default swaps came into existence in 1994 when they were invented by Blythe Masters from JP Morgan*. They became popular in the early 2000s, and by 2007, the outstanding credit default swaps value stood at $62.2 trillion. During the financial crisis of 2008, the value of CDS was hit hard, and it dropped to $26.3 trillion by 2010 and $25.5 trillion in 2012. There was no legal framework to regulate swaps, and the lack of transparency in the market became a concern among regulators."



This makes about as much sense as saying that the Goodyear Eagle GT was 'invented' in 1981.  It's just another tire and that is just another derivative, as your link stated.  You can "invent" derivatives of the median shoelace string size if you want.  There's nothing 'inventive' about that, it's not a new instrument, it's just being applied to something else.   

And more to the point, any derivative if used as an investment tool is high risk.  These guys are basically saying, I've got a 5% chance of losing everything, a 5% chance of making nothing, and a 90% chance of making 20% per year.  I'm gonna do this for a year or two and make a name for myself.  Then they get an unexpected event and lose everything - that being, all of someone else's money.  

I'd say 100% of bitcoin investors like those odds.  Which gets us back to it is not the instrument, it is the investor mentality that causes these crashes.  

To that point, we just had a small hedge fund implode and it had nothing to do with the credit default swaps you mention.  They used a different 'invention' (derivative) called a total return equity swap.  These swaps are very similar to call options except that the payment is recurring and there is no expiration date.  You get the benefit of price going up and you don't have to buy the stock, you even get the dividends, but you have to keep paying a fee.  Works great, just like the scenario I outlined above.  Except, then the stock goes down.  And then you get a margin call.  

It's this lack of fear that causes these things to happen.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jul 17, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Not really though, because if you invest in crypto and enter into that realm, you play by a different set of rules.



The rules are the same, the magnitude of win/loss is different.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 17, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> The rules are the same, the magnitude of win/loss is different.


I would argue the rules are not the same.  If the rules were the same, Elon would be in deep, deep shit.



RandallFlagg said:


> This makes about as much sense as saying that the Goodyear Eagle GT was 'invented' in 1981. It's just another tire and that is just another derivative,


But what happens if you ask someone in 1975 about a Goodyear Eagle GT?  They won't know what it is - until you say:. It's a tire!


----------



## Vya Domus (Jul 17, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> If the rules were the same, Elon would be in deep, deep shit.


He should have been in deep shit for a quite some time now but he's not. So with that in mind, the rules look the same to me.


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 17, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> He should have been in deep shit for a quite some time now but he's not. So with that in mind, the rules look the same to me.


Fair enough.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jul 17, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> He should have been in deep shit for a quite some time now but he's not. So with that in mind, the rules look the same to me.


Not really. He tweeted about Tesla and SEC was not okay with it. Tesla and Elon settled with the SEC for $40 millions.
Tweeted about Bitcoin and Dogecoin to manipulate the prices. SEC did not care.

Anyway, we are really getting off topic here. This thread is to discuss cryptocoin values. Debate about crypto should go here - https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/general-cryptocoin-discussion.283231/


----------



## Rithsom (Jul 19, 2021)

Bitcoin has just fallen slightly to $30,700. Its value is starting to step out of the narrow $31,000-$35,000 range that it has been in for the past month. I wonder if a much bigger drop is about to happen.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 19, 2021)

Rithsom said:


> Bitcoin has just fallen slightly to $30,700. Its value is starting to step out of the narrow $31,000-$35,000 range that it has been in for the past month. I wonder if a much bigger drop is about to happen.



It is.  All of the markets have been diverging internally for a couple of weeks, a classic sort of divergence.   i.e. - the # of declining stocks was higher than the number of rising stocks as the indexes hit new highs.  Narrow index-only stocks going up is a very bad sign.  Bitcoin will go down with the rest of them.  





__





						GalleryView Charts | StockCharts.com
					

View advanced price charts for a ticker symbol in multiple timeframes together on one page to allow for simultaneous short-, mid-, and long-term analysis.




					stockcharts.com


----------



## Metroid (Jul 19, 2021)

Nash said:


> That 40 to 64k looks unreal.
> 
> View attachment 205616


The crypto market is unreal, it rises 50 times and then crashes 50 times hehe


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 19, 2021)

Looks like the last time the adv/decline on 1hr chart was this low was Sept of 2020.  This is a very broad based decline.   It didn't really just start today either, the majority of stocks by a wide margin have been declining for 4 trading days despite the indexes making new highs.

Clearly a major unwinding is going to affect BTC too, but I will say I'm surprised it hasn't (yet) been more affected.


----------



## Liquid Cool (Jul 19, 2021)

"If a man does not keep pace with his companions...perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away."

Thoreau is good for men...or markets.  Until BTC takes out the June low(on volume), this is just a pullback(and possible retest) of the June 21 low.   How exciting?

Does it look like it's going to cave?  You betcha.

Is it?  The formation looks ominous, but that is no guarantee.  If I was in the markets my position would not change...until forced to do so.  Which is...the same thing I said initially.  A tight stop under the prior low, which is just under 30k.  Let them force you out and if you've calculated incorrectly, then they'll force you out and rally it like no tomorrow.  Although, if volume comes in at the break, it must be respected.

BTC is plumbing lows, meanwhile the broad markets have been plumbing highs?

I have to tell you...I was prepared to receive a lecture when the DJI took out the 5.10 high.  Oh so close.....

Since this is a tech site...let's do a "tech tidbit" and talk the Nasdaq.  I can remember the high in 2020 for the Nasdaq, it was exactly one week later from the Dow Jones Industrials on February 19th.  The ensuing decline was only 33 days long, while the DJI declined for 40 days.  Since the bottom of all the broad markets on March 23rd of 2020...The Nasdaq has essentially been rallying ever since.

Although, the recent high on July 13th(as RF correctly points out) shows evidence of a roll.  Perhaps July 13th is THE high for Nasdaq?  You know what I think already...this was the retest of the 5.10 high(and failure) on the DJI.

The "tech tidbit" is this...In the Nasdaq...from the February 19th peak in 2020 to the current peak here in 2021 is how many days?

I'll save you the trouble...




Again...How exciting?

Wake up....

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 19, 2021)

Ahh someone made you remove the clue.

Most people require a reason these days, a cause, and thus are not capable of merely applying an observed pattern that has no apparent cause.   It's antithetical to the modern concept of chaos, as order cannot come from chaos.  And yet, it does.


----------



## Hardcore Games (Jul 20, 2021)

BTC and ETH are both fallen more than 50% from their recent highs and there is still a lot of room to fall


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 20, 2021)

BTC, falling through yet another trend channel, very near making a new low for the year :


----------



## moproblems99 (Jul 20, 2021)

Don't worry, its just transitory!  













Said no one who meant it.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Jul 26, 2021)

Looks like a nice pump from possibly the Amazon crypto news or either alot of selling has been going on and no buying.

Anybody like to chime in? Been quiet here as of late.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 26, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Anybody like to chime in? Been quiet here as of late.


There's not alot going on.. Cryptocoin is doing it's fluctuation thing. All is quiet in the western front yard.
(name that movie)


----------



## RandallFlagg (Jul 27, 2021)

Liquid Cool said:


> "If a man does not keep pace with his companions...perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away."
> 
> Thoreau is good for men...or markets.  Until BTC takes out the June low(on volume), this is just a pullback(and possible retest) of the June 21 low.   How exciting?
> 
> ...



I'm hearing that tomorrow has the potential to be a Fibonacci time analysis turning point on the S&P.

And this divergence, showing more equities have been losing than winning despite new highs on the indexes, continues.  We haven't seen a divergence like this since late 2007 into 2008.   Basically, the indexes have been going up but the majority of stocks have lost value since early Feb, i.e. breadth is narrowing. 








For comparison :


----------



## trog100 (Jul 31, 2021)

well i have been away for a couple of weeks.. during this time bitcoin has moved from around 30 K and looking like going lower to around 42 K and looking like going higher.. 

the whales have been buying and accumulating i assume they know what they are doing.. i think the crypto doldrums are over.. new all time highs will soon be reached..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Aug 6, 2021)

bitcoin took a little dip over the last week but its back up near 42K... eth has gone up 20% over the last week and is now at 2800 and looks like going higher..

this thread has gone quiet because its loaded with crypto naysayers and just lately they dont have much to say..


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 6, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin took a little dip over the last week but its back up near 42K... eth has gone up 20% over the last week and is now at 2800 and looks like going higher..
> 
> this thread has gone quiet because its loaded with crypto naysayers and just lately they dont have much to say..



you won't be so cocky when climate change puts United Kingdom at negative 80 faren in a new ice age due to the Atlantic Ocean current no longer bringing warm water to Ireland/UK region year round.

mining is not the only source of the problem, but it exacerbated it.









						Study warns of 'irreversible transition' in ocean currents that could rapidly freeze parts of North America
					

A large system of ocean currents in the Atlantic has been disrupted due to human-caused climate change, scientists reported in a new study.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## trog100 (Aug 6, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> you won't be so cocky when climate change puts United Kingdom at negative 80 faren in a new ice age due to the Atlantic Ocean current no longer bringing warm water to Ireland/UK region year round.
> 
> mining is not the only source of the problem, but it exacerbated it.
> 
> ...



i do believe the planet is heading into an ice age lynx.. i doubt mankind and its activities have much to do with it though.. 

as for crypto it does seem to be starting a run.. bitcoin is up near 43K and eth near 2900.. off we go.. he he..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 6, 2021)

trog100 said:


> this thread has gone quiet because its loaded with crypto naysayers and just lately they dont have much to say..


It would seem few care. This thread exists to give the subject a home and not pollute other threads with cryptocoin jibberjabber.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 7, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin took a little dip over the last week but its back up near 42K... eth has gone up 20% over the last week and is now at 2800 and looks like going higher..
> 
> this thread has gone quiet because its loaded with crypto naysayers and just lately they dont have much to say..



Looks like a decent gain across the board from the yearly lows. I'm wondering if its set to go  past the ATH? It's looking like it personally.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 7, 2021)

Free your mind Neo ~


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 7, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Free your mind Neo ~



Believe me I try everyday : (


----------



## Zach_01 (Aug 7, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Looks like a decent gain across the board from the yearly lows. I'm wondering if its set to go  past the ATH? It's looking like it personally.


I sure hope so for a new ATH, but I'm not forgetting the past also...

Is this making any sense? I think even if it hits ~50k (point 4) the 20k/<20K (point 5) could still happen.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 7, 2021)

Zach_01 said:


> could still happen



Anything could happen matey. This is crypto. Ride the wave : )


----------



## trog100 (Aug 7, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Anything could happen matey. This is crypto. Ride the wave : )



bitcoin is approaching 44K and eth is up over 3000.. i think we are now well and truly in an up-trend.. how high it goes is anybodies guess..

i recon new all time highs are definitely on the cards.. the wave is looking good.. 

gold is taking a hit and the stock markets are flat.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 7, 2021)

trog100 said:


> gold is taking a hit and the stock markets are flat..


More or less proving that the cryptocoin market and stock market are not linked and don't really effect each other to any serious degree.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 7, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> More or less proving that the cryptocoin market and stock market are not linked and don't really effect each other to any serious degree.



money moves about.. people tend to park it where they think they will see the most gains.. i think all markets are loosely connected if not in an obvious way..

i suspect some money is moving from gold into crypto.. gold goes down crypto goes up.. the same will apply to the stock markets.. money can also move from all markets into cash for maximum liquidity.. this happens when people aint sure where to park their money.. it will move somewhere when people make their minds up..

the future is uncertain nobody knows for sure what is going to happen.. 

trog


----------



## ppn (Aug 8, 2021)

Zach_01 said:


> I sure hope so for a new ATH, but I'm not forgetting the past also...
> 
> Is this making any sense? I think even if it hits ~50k (point 4) the 20k/<20K (point 5) could still happen.


Makes perfect sense, a scaled up model of the past. Doesn't matter what point is hit, It will go down any day now. It has been doing the same thing for months, the 20-26 lowest point then growth to the highest point for about 2 weeks. They could drag this thing until the 15th, it will flatten overall.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

AMC says it'll soon let you pay for your movie ticket in bitcoin
					

AMC is jumping on the crypto bandwagon.




					www.cnn.com
				




I really hope Congress adds an extra climate change tax to each transaction made with Bitcoin. I doubt if they do though, since they can't agree on anything. Useless


----------



## the54thvoid (Aug 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> AMC says it'll soon let you pay for your movie ticket in bitcoin
> 
> 
> AMC is jumping on the crypto bandwagon.
> ...



How much physical material is used to create paper and coin? How much energy is used in that production? Then factor in server costs in watts from the process of card payments. Both systems use massive amounts of energy.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 10, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Both systems use massive amounts of energy.



You stole the words from my mouth.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 10, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> How much physical material is used to create paper and coin? How much energy is used in that production? Then factor in server costs in watts from the process of card payments. Both systems use massive amounts of energy.


Yes, but once paper and coin money are minted, maintaining them involves no energy at all where as cryptocoin exists digitally and as such requires energy to maintain on an ongoing basis..


----------



## trog100 (Aug 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Yes, but once paper and coin money are minted, maintaining them involves no energy at all where as cryptocoin exists digitally and as such requires energy to maintain on an ongoing basis..



i live in the UK as opposed to the US.. i rarely use cash money mostly what i buy is with digital money via some kind of electronic connection...

cash is only useful for the odd black economy transaction i engage in.. for example i just paid a guy £50 cash in hand no questions ask to cut my grass.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 10, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i live in the UK as opposed to the US.. i rarely use cash money mostly what i buy is with digital money via some kind of electronic connection...
> 
> cash is only useful for the odd black economy transaction i engage in.. for example i just paid a guy £50 cash in hand no questions ask to cut my grass..
> 
> trog


Well, but you're an odd duck. Most people still use real money on a frequent basis.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> How much physical material is used to create paper and coin? How much energy is used in that production? Then factor in server costs in watts from the process of card payments. Both systems use massive amounts of energy.



Fiat is not going anywhere, Fiat was never going to go anywhere, Fiat has always existed, you are making a redundant argument. Crypto is new, and within 10 years of its existence added so much electricity use that had no need to be there (cause again Fiat is not going anywhere), why make the problem worse?

Y'all will find out really quick when the heatwaves get so bad power grids start going out and you are sitting in 120 faren heat.  

I agree fiat is also a problem, but no reason to add problems to problems, especially to fiat which again, won't go away just cause crypto exists.

Therefore, one must conclude, the original mission of the Paris Accord is the best one, we must figure out ways to reduce climate change as soon as possible, and NOT ADD to the problem on top of that.



trog100 said:


> i live in the UK as opposed to the US.. i rarely use cash money mostly what i buy is with digital money via some kind of electronic connection...
> 
> cash is only useful for the odd black economy transaction i engage in.. for example i just paid a guy £50 cash in hand no questions ask to cut my grass..
> 
> trog



50 pound to cut your grass wow, you must have a massive yard. you might pay someone for a medium/big yard where I live about 20 bucks. we have a rider though, so we just mow it ourselves in about 10 mins with the rider mower, can do it in 5 if you crank the speed up. lol


----------



## trog100 (Aug 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Well, but you're an odd duck. Most people still use real money on a frequent basis.



i dont think i am that odd... my weekly super market shop is done with plastic.. most of the other stuff i buy is done online and  done electronically..

older people (though i aint no spring chicken) are the ones that still use cash..the ones that still collect their pensions in cash at the post office..  the thing is its just too easy to use plastic.. in the UK there is a strong move towards plastic and away from cash..

in china its all done with their phones..

i recon you are somewhat behind the times lex.. time to catch up.. he he

trog

ps.. on the subject of planet saving.. i just built an electric trike.. for the first time in years i have explored my local town.. i can go anywhere with it (local) and park it anywhere.. i never normally visit the town for lack of places to park my truck..  i also tested it out for my weekly food shop.. my fuel guzzling truck got left at home and i used my electric trike.. it passed the test with flying colours.. mind you it was a nice sunny day.. he he..


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 10, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i recon you are somewhat behind the times lex.. time to catch up..


There's a good bit of wisdom that applies here. If it's not broken, don't fix it. Cash money works and isn't easily controlled by governments.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i dont think i am that odd... my weekly super market shop is done with plastic..



I buy all my stuff with plastic card too. I still think cash is important for keeping independence though for oddball stuff like if need someone to mow the lawn as you mentioned. What's wrong with the current plastic card system is my only question. It works instantly when I checkout at the grocery store, and the next day I see my bill for it.

I don't want to it to work any faster than that actually, for identity theft issues. If someone steals my stuff, I will notice it and have time to stop it. 

I just don't see the need for crypto other than the dreams of it going up in price and hoping to get rich, which has happened for a lot of you, so I mean congrats I guess, but I see no need for it as an actual tool for the economy to work.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I buy all my stuff with plastic card too. I still think cash is important for keeping independence though for oddball stuff like if need someone to mow the lawn as you mentioned. What's wrong with the current plastic card system is my only question. It works instantly when I checkout at the grocery store, and the next day I see my bill for it.
> 
> I don't want to it to work any faster than that actually, for identity theft issues. If someone steals my stuff, I will notice it and have time to stop it.
> 
> I just don't see the need for crypto other than the dreams of it going up in price and hoping to get rich, which has happened for a lot of you, so I mean congrats I guess, but I see no need for it as an actual tool for the economy to work.



the need for bitcoin is a universal means of exchange that cannot be controlled by any individual government.. currently governments are debasing their own currencies by simply printing more and more of it to suit their current needs.. the problems with this should be obvious to anybody that gives it some thought..

the snag with joe public using plastic is when governments get rid of cash like they would like to they will know where every penny we spend goes.. 

i ask a simple question.. how the f-ck are we gonna find anybody to cut our grass.. he he

i happen to believe that the black economy is the lubricant that makes the wheels of the real economy go round.. but that is just my thinking.. 

however clever we get the f-cking grass is still gonna need cutting..

trog


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 10, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i live in the UK as opposed to the US.. i rarely use cash money mostly what i buy is with digital money via some kind of electronic connection...
> 
> cash is only useful for the odd black economy transaction i engage in.. for example i just paid a guy £50 cash in hand no questions ask to cut my grass..
> 
> trog



Yes I have to agree 100%. I use plastic/digital transactions like 99% of the time. There's no way in hell you are the odd duck what bs lol. I think somebody else is..


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

trog100 said:


> the need for bitcoin is a universal means of exchange that cannot be controlled by any individual government.. currently governments are debasing their own currencies by simply printing more and more of it to suit their current needs.. the problems with this should be obvious to anybody that gives it some thought..
> 
> the snag with joe public using plastic is when governments get rid of cash like they would like to they will know where every penny we spend goes..
> 
> ...



I 100% understand what you are saying and see the danger in it, but I look at it like this:  if the voting Democracy truly has failed, and we won't be able to vote in people who can keep us at a good standard of living and the currency strong, then this whole experiment called civilization collapses, and I am not sure any currency will matter at that point in chaos.



Outback Bronze said:


> Yes I have to agree 100%. I use plastic/digital transactions like 99% of the time. There's no way in hell you are the odd duck what bs lol. I think somebody else is..



I use cash at fast food or places like pubs/general food places, cause there have been a lot of skimmers stealing people's card info in last decade or so. So I prefer cash at places like that. I also use cash at gas stations for same reason. But if its a big store like wal-mart I am fine with using my card.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> cause there have been a lot of skimmers stealing people's card info in last decade or so.


This. Sure cash can be stolen, but there's a limit to the damage, how much is on you.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 10, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I use cash



When corona hit down under a lot of places would not even except it. Cash is dying.


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Well, but you're an odd duck. Most people still use real money on a frequent basis.


Well then you're* an idiot.  I save 5% (or more, also or less) from credit cards rewards. In a little less than 3 years, I racked up $3000 in rewards.  I also didn't have to pay interest since I paid the card off every month.

Think smarter not older.

*Royal you.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 10, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> credit cards rewards



Yep, gone on a few overseas trips with my cards rewards. Good point!


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 10, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> When corona hit down under a lot of places would not even except it. Cash is dying.


sure, but they are accepting cash again now. at least around here they are.  covid is over.  get your two jabs. move on with life, and probably every year get your dual jab which is flu/covid together. and we keep living. that's life.



Outback Bronze said:


> Yep, gone on a few overseas trips with my cards rewards. Good point!



yep, when I visited my relatives in England a few years ago, I got a lot of bonus points, was nice.


----------



## Sithaer (Aug 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Well, but you're an odd duck. Most people still use real money on a frequent basis.



About this discussion.
I guess this also depends where you live, cash is still very popular in my country, most likely still more common than digital/card transactions for general stuff.

I do have a bank card/account but I almost only use it for online orders like when I buy hardware and when I buy stuff from Aliexpress _'yeah thats not really a thing anymore tho thanks to the new taxing_'.
When I go casual/grocery shopping I only use cash and I see the same from most ppl, I do live in a ~6000 ppl small city/town so it might be different in the capital or bigger cities but I can't say that for sure.

My mother and grandparents doesn't even have a bank account or a smart phone for that matter so they pay with cash everywhere, in case they need something ordered/paid online they ask me or my brother then pay back with cash.
Also my last 3 workplaces paid me in cash _'not illegal jobs mind you_' so I had to go to my bank and transfer the cash to my bank account when I needed it. _'this is still the case with my home office job atm'_

I was also paying with cash during covid, it wasn't an issue here at least where I shop or even when I ordered hardware the delivery dude acccepted cash. _'Online/card payment was suggested but not a must'_


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 10, 2021)

moproblems99 said:


> Well then you're* an idiot.


Yup, I definitely struck a nerve. Do you feel better now, hmm princess?


moproblems99 said:


> Think smarter not older.


Aww, what an adorable attempt at clever whit. Grow up someday, do.



Sithaer said:


> About this discussion.
> I guess this also depends where you live, cash is still very popular in my country, most likely still more common than digital/card transactions for general stuff.


There are a lot of places that still prefer cash. Heck, where I live there is a large food store chain that does not accept credit cards at all. They prefer cash and they are always busy!


----------



## moproblems99 (Aug 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Yup, I definitely struck a nerve. Do you feel better now, hmm princess?
> 
> Aww, what an adorable attempt at clever whit. Grow up someday, do.
> 
> ...


Holy shit batman, royal you. Learn to read.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> They prefer cash and they are always busy



I wonder why.. Tax anybody?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 10, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> I wonder why.. Tax anybody?


No, the company doesn't want to pay the credit card transaction fees nor pay for the equipment to process such transactions.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> No, the company doesn't want to pay the credit card transaction fees nor pay for the equipment to process such transactions.


 
And you believe that? lols


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 10, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> And you believe that? lols


Why would that not be the case? There are a number of companies that charge higher prices for using a credit card, motivating people to use cash. I do that in my shop. If you use cash, you pay sticker price. If you use a card you pay a 4% card fee.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Why would that not be the case? There are a number of companies that charge higher prices for using a credit card, motivating people to use cash. I do that in my shop. If you use cash, you pay sticker price. If you use a card you pay a 4% card fee.



Here down under you would loose money as nobody carries cash. Its all card. People just walk away if businesses (even small) don't have EFTPOS because they wont carry cash on them and cant pay for it.

Every over the counter business here has an EFTPOS machine for this exact reason.

I will give you that every part of the word is different but lets just say that Card has replaced Cash in the modern era no? 

All my business purchases are card which makes life easy for me and my accountant. Its much more practical also to carry card and not wads of cash.

Cash come in handy yes, but mainly to get tradies to do cheaper jobs tax free. Cash is the silent killer.


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 11, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Why would that not be the case? There are a number of companies that charge higher prices for using a credit card, motivating people to use cash. I do that in my shop. If you use cash, you pay sticker price. If you use a card you pay a 4% card fee.


Hi,
Debit card or cash discounts for gas is the most common seen lol


----------



## Frontino (Aug 11, 2021)

Where did Elon Musk buy Bitcoin? Did he use one of those shady websites on the web? Because I don't trust them, what's stopping them from closing your account arbitrarily? Has anyone successfully withdraw millions of dollars from them?


----------



## trog100 (Aug 11, 2021)

to get back on topic slightly bitcoin is now up over 46K and etherium up over 3200.. the trend looks to be upwards.. 

up over 60% over the last month from the 30K lows and talk of a 10K bitcoin.. quite a change..

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 11, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> you won't be so cocky when climate change puts United Kingdom at negative 80 faren in a new ice age due to the Atlantic Ocean current no longer bringing warm water to Ireland/UK region year round.
> 
> mining is not the only source of the problem, but it exacerbated it.
> 
> ...


I'm not even sure mining is a drop in the bucket at this point, but scapegoats gottta be the goat.

See the other thread for some power metrics.



Outback Bronze said:


> And you believe that? lols


There are other reasons too.  Semilegal but harmless things (pot comes to mind) many CC vendors won't touch...  but crypto works.



Frontino said:


> Where did Elon Musk buy Bitcoin? Did he use one of those shady websites on the web? Because I don't trust them, what's stopping them from closing your account arbitrarily? Has anyone successfully withdraw millions of dollars from them?


1.) He bought them off an exchange.  2.)  Because it's decentralized and you are the account?  3.) Yes, good god man there have been several instances of that probably in the last month.

No offense but this seems like you really need to understand bitcoin better (and that's ok, several do, it's complicated).


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 11, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I'm not even sure mining is a drop in the bucket at this point, but scapegoats gottta be the goat.
> 
> See the other thread for some power metrics.



I have already stated I disagree with those metrics, there is no way any human could possibly calculate it all, all 7000 coins from beginning to end, all exchange infrastructure, all crypto related events and fundraising events, the people with a hidden miner at a random office, etc etc, etc.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 11, 2021)

trog100 said:


> to get back on topic slightly bitcoin is now up over 46K and etherium up over 3200.. the trend looks to be upwards..
> 
> up over 60% over the last month from the 30K lows and talk of a 10K bitcoin.. quite a change..
> 
> trog



Yeah, things are really picking up.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 12, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> I have already stated I disagree with those metrics, there is no way any human could possibly calculate it all, all 7000 coins from beginning to end, all exchange infrastructure, all crypto related events and fundraising events, the people with a hidden miner at a random office, etc etc, etc.


I explained to you how those metrics are derived.  And there isn't much more volume in coins other than bitcoin/ethereum even if your theory held true.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 14, 2021)

bitcoin is now very close to 48 K... eth just over 3300..

people that follow charts seem to think 47K is of special importance.. once bitcoin breaks and holds above that its up up and away.. ether way the trend still seems to be up..

trog

ps.. since writing this post bitcoin briefly hit 48 K then immediately dropped back down to 46 K.. i think it will go back up again but it may go sideways for a while before it does..


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 14, 2021)

trog100 said:


> ps.. since writing this post bitcoin briefly hit 48 K then immediately dropped back down to 46 K.. i think it will go back up again but it may go sideways for a while before it does..


Tell me that's not funny, I dare you!


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 15, 2021)

So I am curious, with the coins’ prices up, are mining profits up as well? Are miners buying up GPUs once again?


----------



## Metroid (Aug 15, 2021)

I remember when cryptocoins came, it was to replace credit cards, very lows fees, look today, enormous fees, cryptocoins failed in that regard, now they say store of value hehe


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 15, 2021)

Metroid said:


> enormous fees,


You must be doing something wrong.  The fees aren't bad at all vs swipe fees.

I mean they can be if you are doing something dumb like using a primary onchain ethereum or bitcoin transaction, but there are so many other ways at this point.  Don't even get started on the cost of many American banks to send a wire transfer...


----------



## Metroid (Aug 15, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> You must be doing something wrong.  The fees aren't bad at all vs swipe fees.
> 
> I mean they can be if you are doing something dumb like using a primary onchain ethereum or bitcoin transaction, but there are so many other ways at this point.  Don't even get started on the cost of many American banks to send a wire transfer...



Coins have a proportional fee demand. I guess the market does that, people look for cheaper fees and end up making that coin more expensive than what actually is and in the end the fee is almost the same as others or a little bit cheaper, also there is the exchange fee which in most cases is up to 10 times more expensive than what actually is. At moment I use only ltc, used to use xrp, truth is you have to look at moment what is your best option calculating many coins.

If talking about international wire transfer, each country has its own fee based, in that regard cryptocoins are way better than any bank worldwide. If talking about local wire transfer then no, where I live banks don't charge local wire transfer, international yes and is around 4%, western union I think is also 4%.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 15, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> So I am curious, with the coins’ prices up, are mining profits up as well? Are miners buying up GPUs once again?



eth mining isnt as profitable as it was at its peak.. this reflects directly on the price of ebay graphics cards.. they are a lot cheaper than they were..

people are still buying them just not prepared to pay as higher price..

bitcoin is seen as a store of value it competes with gold in this respect.. the value if bitcoin goes up a lot more than gold though.. he he

bitcoin is now worth 10 times more than when i first looked at it back in 2017.. no other asset comes anywhere near it.. its gone up over 60% in the last month alone..

i think it will hit 100K before this year ends.. but that is just my oppinion.. i aint selling the small amount i have and thats for sure.. the same applies to eth..

for reference sake i recon a 3080 card would now be making maybe 6 dollars a day before power costs.. maybe half what it was at its peak..

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 15, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Coins have a proportional fee demand. I guess the market does that, people look for cheaper fees and end up making that coin more expensive than what actually is and in the end the fee is almost the same as others or a little bit cheaper, also there is the exchange fee which in most cases is up to 10 times more expensive than what actually is. At moment I use only ltc, used to use xrp, truth is you have to look at moment what is your best option calculating many coins.
> 
> If talking about international wire transfer, each country has its own fee based, in that regard cryptocoins are way better than any bank worldwide. If talking about local wire transfer then no, where I live banks don't charge local wire transfer, international yes and is around 4%, western union I think is also 4%.


If you really want to go cheap, convert to BCH and send.  It's slow but very cheap.  Of course they'll probably try to make that conversion taxed at some point, but right now it works.


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Aug 16, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> You must be doing something wrong.  The fees aren't bad at all vs swipe fees.
> 
> I mean they can be if you are doing something dumb like using a primary onchain ethereum or bitcoin transaction, but there are so many other ways at this point.  Don't even get started on the cost of many American banks to send a wire transfer...


Not to mention how the credit unions & banks on US military bases ripped off our soldiers(and probably still do). Back during the first Gulf War, they were charging a $1.00 fee on at least two bases that I know of for every withdrawal, which was ridiculous considering it was mandatory to have direct deposit in order to get paid. Completely screwed up that you have to pay a fee in order to get payed by your employer.


----------



## Sandbo (Aug 18, 2021)

trog100 said:


> eth mining isnt as profitable as it was at its peak.. this reflects directly on the price of ebay graphics cards.. they are a lot cheaper than they were..
> 
> people are still buying them just not prepared to pay as higher price..
> 
> ...


Part of it is EIP1559 where people were worried and sold their cards before so, though the recent ETH price surge has largely offset its effect, at least for now.
Another factor being the imminent "threat" of moving over to PoS (2022 for now, iirc) which once implemented GPU price can fall off the cliff; some people rather play safe and sell their GPU while the price is still kind of good. This is also supplemented by the fact that getting ROI could be tricky given PoS might drop before it is possible.

There are other options than ETH to mine such as ETC, but profitability will further decrease. My guess is the peak of GPU mining has ended which hopefully means more cards are available for gaming.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 19, 2021)

bitcoin is now at 44K with eth around 3000.. over the last few days the trend has been sideways with some downwards momentum built in..

some people say it had to go down a bit before going back up.. i think this is just whale manipulation but its impossible to know for sure.. time will tell..

trog

ps.. the stock markets looks a bit grim.. there would be a touch of irony here if taliban activity triggered a market sell off.. he he..


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Aug 19, 2021)

It still seems a bit weird to me that crypto is getting traded/treated like a proper tangible commodity, but it's been happening in the traditional currency markets for years, so I suppose it shouldn't be all that surprising.  :-/


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 20, 2021)

trog100 said:


> some people say it had to go down a bit before going back up..


In this case it did the opposite, it jumped up before going back down some. Kinda weird market situation.


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Aug 20, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin is now at 44K with eth around 3000.. over the last few days the trend has been sideways with some downwards momentum built in..
> 
> some people say it had to go down a bit before going back up.. i think this is just whale manipulation but its impossible to know for sure.. time will tell..
> 
> ...


If anything, I wonder how the rest of the world's response to the US handling of Afghanistan is going to affect the markets. It seems like all we did was throw a bunch of money & munitions at a country for nothing while enriching the makers of said munitions. Is anyone else seeing a definite pattern here since post WW-II? Vietnam? Iraq? Iraq again? 
Crypto will probably just keep on rubber banding like it has been for now unless something earthshattering happens.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Aug 20, 2021)

MentalAcetylide said:


> If anything, I wonder how the rest of the world's response to the US handling of Afghanistan is going to affect the markets. It seems like all we did was throw a bunch of money & munitions at a country for nothing while enriching the makers of said munitions. Is anyone else seeing a definite pattern here since post WW-II? Vietnam? Iraq? Iraq again?
> Crypto will probably just keep on rubber banding like it has been for now unless something earthshattering happens.



Yeah, it's like we saw how well it went that one time, and now we're all, "Hey, I know:  let's keep doing that over and over until it works again."

Back on topic...  It may not take something "earthshattering", but society at large doesn't really know what to _do_ with crypto yet. My unfounded and largely uninformed prediction: The bounces will get less severe as more institutions get on board and legitimize crypto as a viable, widespread day-to-day currency, and we'll eventually start to see longer-term trends. That last is a bit meaningless, I suppose; anything starts to show trends as the timescale expands...


----------



## trog100 (Aug 20, 2021)

well bitcoin is now back up near 48K again with eth at 3255.. i think it will keep going up past 50K this time.. the next few days will tell.. 

the trend is upwards.. 

trog


----------



## Rithsom (Aug 20, 2021)

After thinking about it for a bit, maybe the best possible thing for those who are in the market for a graphics card is for BTC to go back up to around $60K and just stay there. Yes, a major crypto crash would free up a ton of GPUs currently being used for mining. However, a crash is only good for the short term, because crypto would inevitably skyrocket in a couple of years, as it always has. A crash just means that the shortage we are stuck in now will happen again in the future.

What we need going forward is stability in crypto. It will still take some time for supply to catch up to demand, but at least we wouldn't have additional shortages after that.

I'd prefer the world governments place a blanket ban on crypto instead, but they just don't seem interested in doing that. So, crypto going higher and leveling off is the next best thing that I can hope for, as strange as that sounds.


----------



## cvaldes (Aug 20, 2021)

Cryptocurrency price fluctuations don't have any long-term material effect on GPU prices. Cryptocurrencies routinely lose about 50% of their value only to recover months later. This is an ongoing pattern.

Moreover GPUs are used to mine just a few cryptocurrencies. The vast majority of them (including the bellwether bitcoin) cannot be mined with GPUs.

GPU prices are coming down slightly because of government crackdowns (recently China) on mining activities not because the currency prices dropped (note that they have recovered quite a bit in the past month).

It is important to point out that the number of GPUs mining doesn't contribute to cryptocurrency price volatility either. The spot price is driven by cryptocurrency traders: buyers and sellers.

Cryptocurrency mining is for people who don't have the audacity to trade the currency. It's like trying to make money from Amazon by driving a delivery van instead of buying shares of AMZN.

Remember that the vast majority of the world's wealth was created from investments not earned wages.  I would guess that 98% of people in these type of tech forums get this wrong and thus prattle on and on about GPUs.

If you really want to make crypto profits, trade the currency.


----------



## Mescalamba (Aug 20, 2021)

No GPU cause no chips. In general. Cause some mofo thought its good idea to have fabs almost all in one place. Its not like one couldnt forsee it.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 21, 2021)

its close.. he he









						Bitcoin Price Today - BTC to USD Live - Crypto | Coinranking
					

View the Bitcoin (BTC) price live in US dollar (USD). Today's value and price history. Discover info about market cap, trading volume and supply.




					coinranking.com
				




trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> its close.. he he
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah, kinda wild!


----------



## Mescalamba (Aug 22, 2021)

It will probably get there, but first small correction. I guess.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 23, 2021)

bitcoin now at 50108.. eth at 3335.. 

where to next i wonder.. ?? will it take a little dip or go higher.. 

trog


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 23, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin now at 50108.. eth at 3335..
> 
> where to next i wonder.. ?? will it take a little dip or go higher..
> 
> trog



yeah I love how the ETH founder keeps "delaying" his transition to proof of stake for ETH because "he cares" about the environment. lol  same as Elon Musk being like oh yeah I like Bitcoin again everyone, because all these ANON users told me they use "green energy" and they provided no irrefutable proof for their claim, but I believe them everyone!    

humans had their chance, mother Earth is about to teach us a lesson in hubris though.  within the decade I expect we will all be begging for food. not only did we fail to address all facets causing climate change quick enough, we literally added 10 countries worth of electricity that never existed in a 13 year period. I don't blame crypto, even without crypto humans would not have changed their ways quick enough.

crypto will also be worthless though, only thing that will matter is food in the end. and there won't be enough good soil to go around that doesn't get hit by extreme weather events.


----------



## R-T-B (Aug 24, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> yeah I love how the ETH founder keeps "delaying" his transition to proof of stake for ETH because "he cares" about the environment. lol  same as Elon Musk being like oh yeah I like Bitcoin again everyone, because all these ANON users told me they use "green energy" and they provided no irrefutable proof for their claim, but I believe them everyone!
> 
> humans had their chance, mother Earth is about to teach us a lesson in hubris though.  within the decade I expect we will all be begging for food. not only did we fail to address all facets causing climate change quick enough, we literally added 10 countries worth of electricity that never existed in a 13 year period. I don't blame crypto, even without crypto humans would not have changed their ways quick enough.
> 
> crypto will also be worthless though, only thing that will matter is food in the end. and there won't be enough good soil to go around that doesn't get hit by extreme weather events.


You really need to learn to stay on a subject and quit enviroshaming everyone everywhere, man.


----------



## Space Lynx (Aug 24, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> You really need to learn to stay on a subject and quit enviroshaming everyone everywhere, man.



ok, sure


----------



## Mescalamba (Aug 25, 2021)

Which countries are the world’s biggest carbon polluters? - ClimateTrade
					

Which countries are the world’s biggest carbon polluters?




					climatetrade.com
				












						Just 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions, study says
					

A relatively small number of fossil fuel producers and their investors could hold the key to tackling climate change




					www.theguardian.com
				




And quit that energo nonsense.

You can find it yourself, but impact of mining crypto is basically close to zero compared to real sources of environmental problems. Which wont be fixed anyway, cause there is pretty much no will or no way to force them to do it. Crypto mining in current state of the world is basically completely unimportant thing.

As for weather events. Heh, humans are blessed with short time memory. I have access to sum of few chronicles with focus on weather (especially where I live). It has almost yearly summary from around 900 A.D. Im kinda surprised that Europeans even survived what weather did in the past. Compared to history our past 100 years was walk in the park. If anything weather was from historical point of view remarkably stable and friendly.

Those plagues and famine in the history were caused mostly by weather (which often was impacted by quite heavy seismic activity). Weather mostly went to cold, absurd cold, switched to floods, then to droughts and ofc followed by famine + plague. Some normal years inbetween and rinse + repeat.

Weather in past years wasnt particularly friendly, but based on view 1000 years back Im not exactly sure we have that much impact. Maybe we fast-forwarded cycle to non-stable weather, but from really long time perspective, it would happen anyway no matter what we did.

And even taking into account this year weather, compared to the past, we still have nice weather. Cause it can go a lot worse than this.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 25, 2021)

Mescalamba said:


> Which countries are the world’s biggest carbon polluters? - ClimateTrade
> 
> 
> Which countries are the world’s biggest carbon polluters?
> ...


While that is very interesting info, it is very off-topic for this thread.

Let's please get back on topic.

(And before any whiny special-snowflakes accuse me of mini-modding consider the following: If we can rope in and manage ourselves in a civilized fashion, the mods don't/won't have to do so and be annoyed at us or close the thread.)


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 25, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Here down under you would loose money as nobody carries cash. Its all card. People just walk away if businesses (even small) don't have EFTPOS because they wont carry cash on them and cant pay for it.
> 
> Every over the counter business here has an EFTPOS machine for this exact reason.
> 
> ...


Hi,
How do you pay panhandlers do they have somewhere to swipe


----------



## Outback Bronze (Aug 25, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> How do you pay panhandlers do they have somewhere to swipe



Nope, they are unlucky..


----------



## trog100 (Aug 29, 2021)

well bitcoin is trading sideways between 48 and 49K.. not a lot happening to be honest..

it needs to break the 50K barrier to maintain its upwards trend.. i think it will but it could break lower first..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 30, 2021)

trog100 said:


> well bitcoin is trading sideways between 48 and 49K.. not a lot happening to be honest..
> 
> it needs to break the 50K barrier to maintain its upwards trend.. i think it will but it could break lower first..
> 
> trog


What's weird is that this recent trend is nothing like a few years ago or a few years before that. I think the overall dynamic for the crypto market has changed.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 30, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> What's weird is that this recent trend is nothing like a few years ago or a few years before that. I think the overall dynamic for the crypto market has changed.



i think it has changed what has happened in the past can no longer be applied to the future.. i think the dynamic is more long term now..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Aug 31, 2021)

bitcoin has dropped another bit its now at 47K.. i think its likely to trade between 47 and 49K for a while.. the volatility has gone out off the bitcoin market no more unexpected big ups and downs.. boring sideways it looks to be.. 

the other thing to note is that eth has broken away from bitcoin and is now on the rise.. big money may be moving away from bitcoin and into eth..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 31, 2021)

trog100 said:


> the other thing to note is that eth has broken away from bitcoin and is now on the rise.. big money may be moving away from bitcoin and into eth..


I have a theory about that. With the Proof of Stake transition having begun, I think there is a rush to harvest as much as possible from the Proof of Work side before the change is finished. This is having the effect of driving up the price. Whether this level will be maintained is open for debate, but is seems clear people know the change is coming soon.


----------



## trog100 (Aug 31, 2021)

i think people are getting bored with bitcoin.. it isnt going up fast enough.. 

eth has gone up over 600% over the last year bitcoin has only managed 300%.. he..he..

it makes sense to me that more money will move into eth.. its showing twice the gains compared to bitcoin.. quite a lot of newly mined eth is being destroyed as well.. i assume this is to keep the price up.. 

to be honest its hard to make sense of any of it..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 31, 2021)

trog100 said:


> to be honest its hard to make sense of any of it..


True! It's all a guessing game right now.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 1, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> True! It's all a guessing game right now.



etherium is definitely on the rise.. its now at 3540.. up around 12% over the last couple of days..

eth is now leading bitcoin and could eventually take over top spot. quite how this fits in the grand scheme of things i havnt a clue.. but its a change.. 

trog


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 1, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i think people are getting bored with bitcoin.. it isnt going up fast enough..
> 
> eth has gone up over 600% over the last year bitcoin has only managed 300%.. he..he..
> 
> ...


Hi,
How is it being destroyed ?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 1, 2021)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> How is it being destroyed ?


Yeah I was wondering that myself. I figure it's the Proof of Work being disqualified as the Proof of Stake protocols are taking over. I might be wrong, or misunderstanding how it works, but that is my theory based on the info available.

@trog100 
What's your say?


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 1, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Yeah I was wondering that myself. I figure it's the Proof of Work being disqualified as the Proof of Stake protocols are taking over. I might be wrong, or misunderstanding how it works, but that is my theory based on the info available.
> 
> @trog100
> What's your say?


Here you go. With the latest 1559, NFT creates this artificial shortage -
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/link...een-burned-following-ethereums-latest-upgrade
https://cryptobriefing.com/nft-gorillas-burn-90000-ethereum-per-minute/


----------



## trog100 (Sep 1, 2021)

the "burned" eth is sent to a black hole type address where its impossible to retrieve it from..

nft or none fungible tokens really have me baffled.. why anyone would pay large sums of money for a digital image really has me foxed..

bitcoin gets bought and stashed eth gets burned this amounts to the amount of available to buy  coins getting less.. in theory this should jack the price of available coins up..

i follow whats going on but i try and not go to far down the rabbit hole in case i get lost for good.. he he

trog


----------



## trog100 (Sep 2, 2021)

bitcoin has just topped 50K.. eth is close to 3800 but seems to have leveled off..

50K is very strong resistance point.. the theory being that once bitcoin breaks up above that its on it way up again.. 

we will see what happens later today.. he he

trog


----------



## trog100 (Sep 3, 2021)

well bitcoin seems to be holding over 50K and eth is very near 4K.. 

i think we are at the beginning of another bull run.. i will be interesting to see where things go over the next few weeks.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Sep 6, 2021)

bitcoin now holding over 51K.. eth still around 4K...

i expect a big up-tick soon.. 

trog


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 6, 2021)

trog100 said:


> well bitcoin seems to be holding over 50K and eth is very near 4K..
> 
> i think we are at the beginning of another bull run..


Beginning?!? What are you smoking?

ETH was 1787.51 on July 20. It's around 3930 which is +119%. If that's not a bull run, I don't know what is.

BTC was 29807.35 also on July 20. It's around 51629 which is +73%.

Here's ETH compared to Nvidia (NVDA) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) over Trailing 3 Months.






You have to be crazy if you don't recognize that ETH has been bullish for a while already.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 6, 2021)

I bought a Bitcoin when it was $31k+ and I still have it, but I actually think it is going down soon. The recent boost is probably due to El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as a currency, and there is anticipation and excitement, not to mention El Salvador is giving $30 to its people to download the app and encourage its use. There is probably quite a bit of buying from the government to boost the price.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 6, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Yeah I was wondering that myself. I figure it's the Proof of Work being disqualified as the Proof of Stake protocols are taking over. I might be wrong, or misunderstanding how it works, but that is my theory based on the info available.
> 
> @trog100
> What's your say?


It's being burned as fees.



trog100 said:


> nft or none fungible tokens really have me baffled.. why anyone would pay large sums of money for a digital image really has me foxed..


With you on this, but people see value in all sorts of weird things.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 6, 2021)

cvaldes said:


> Beginning?!? What are you smoking?
> 
> ETH was 1787.51 on July 20. It's around 3930 which is +119%. If that's not a bull run, I don't know what is.
> 
> ...



i am talking an eth to 8K and bitcoin to 100K type bull run.. all we have seen so far is a nice recovery.. he he..

fomo here we come.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Sep 7, 2021)

well chaps the unexpected has happened.. the crypto market has taken a pretty hefty dump.. bitcoin down from 52K to 47K and eth down from near 4K to 3.5K..

ouch.. he he..

trog


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 7, 2021)

trog100 said:


> well chaps the unexpected has happened.. the crypto market has taken a pretty hefty dump.. bitcoin down from 52K to 47K and eth down from near 4K to 3.5K..
> 
> ouch.. he he..
> 
> trog


Hi,
Just another day out of the office


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 7, 2021)

I figure it's because today is the official start of bitcoin being official tender in El Salvador.  Banks are trying to say "See?  We told you so!" before it even has a chance.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Sep 7, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I figure it's because today is the official start of bitcoin being official tender in El Salvador.  Banks are trying to say "See?  We told you so!" before it even has a chance.



Yeah seems like its got something to do with El Salvador. I was thinking the priced dropped in their favor so they could buy more at a cheaper rate?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 7, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I figure it's because today is the official start of bitcoin being official tender in El Salvador.  Banks are trying to say "See?  We told you so!" before it even has a chance.


This was a power grab by El Salvador, one that will likely bite them in the butt.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 7, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> This was a power grab by El Salvador, one that will likely bite them in the butt.


I'm curious the logic there.  How is accepting the currency a power grab?  They certainly don't have the capital to really influence the price significantly.  Banks however, do.



Outback Bronze said:


> Yeah seems like its got something to do with El Salvador. I was thinking the priced dropped in their favor so they could buy more at a cheaper rate?


Who would arrange that for them?

This looks more like a FUD attempt from banks to scare countries off crypto, because volatility.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 7, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> How is accepting the currency a power grab?


They're trying to corner a part of the market as an early entry. This is little more than a corrupt government with deep organized crime ties trying to legitimize something that is intimately entrenched in the dark-web.


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 7, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Yeah seems like its got something to do with El Salvador. I was thinking the priced dropped in their favor so they could buy more at a cheaper rate?


This makes zero sense.

Bitcoin is traded on the open market. Traders -- buyers and sellers -- negotiate the price. There is no government entity that controls cryptocurrency pricing. Sellers naturally want a higher price. Buyers naturally want a lower price.

Both BTC and ETH have been on a tear since July 20. To me this appears to be a garden variety price correction, likely some people collecting some profits.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 7, 2021)

somebody triggered a dip at time when everybody expected a pump.. this lead to over leveraged longs getting liquidated big time.. some traders lost a ton of money today.. add in some normal panic selling and exchanges going down and you have what you have..

its done el salvador a favour.. they bought the dip.. he he..

i dont think it means much it will be back up again soon.. 

trog


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 8, 2021)

As I have predicted it dropped today due to El Salvador buying and pumping the market. I am a bit miffed of the amount that dropped because that triggered my stop order and sold my Bitcoin. It has now made up some ground.

I think this will come up a bit due to people buying the dip, but then it will drop again in a month. Waiting for the next buying opportunity.

Will El Salvador be bankrupt before Bitcoin hits $100k?


----------



## Metroid (Sep 8, 2021)

Please some of you stop the bs, el salvador is an island, they have no gdp that would make a dent on btc price in any way, if china or the US would have adopted btc then yes. Anyway, I still think btc will go to 79k then crash back to 10k, this is just a trap for people to sell before going up again and the road is clear 79k then when sheeps think btc will go to 100k then the manipulators will crash btc price as much as 80% and the rest of all altcoins as much as 99%.


----------



## Space Lynx (Sep 8, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I bought a Bitcoin when it was $31k+ and I still have it, but I actually think it is going down soon. The recent boost is probably due to El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as a currency, and there is anticipation and excitement, not to mention El Salvador is giving $30 to its people to download the app and encourage its use. There is probably quite a bit of buying from the government to boost the price.



you should sell it and buy a 2022 Toyota Corolla Hybrid in cash, then spend the rest of the money buying me the same car, then with the money left over we can go to strip club together and enjoy some fun times. all while saving the Earth emissions with more efficiency.  plus, the ladies will be nice too.  

just throwing it out there.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 8, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> you should sell it and buy a 2022 Toyota Corolla Hybrid in cash, then spend the rest of the money buying me the same car, then with the money left over we can go to strip club together and enjoy some fun times. all while saving the Earth emissions with more efficiency.  plus, the ladies will be nice too.
> 
> just throwing it out there.


Hey, at least I have done zero mining myself. My driving has been down at least 90% since this work from home thing, but I know I didn’t offset my carbon footprint much.

I thought it has been debunked mining increases fossil fuel use substantially?

I am not a fan of mining, but miners have discovered making profits using energy, and it will not change anytime soon, regardless of the environmental impact


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 8, 2021)

lynx29 said:


> Humans are a failed species.


One could argue that point with a reasonable measure of success given how greedy, cruel and corrupt we insist on and continue being to each other.


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Sep 8, 2021)

trog100 said:


> somebody triggered a dip at time when everybody expected a pump.. this lead to over leveraged longs getting liquidated big time.. some traders lost a ton of money today.. add in some normal panic selling and exchanges going down and you have what you have..
> 
> its done el salvador a favour.. they bought the dip.. he he..
> 
> ...


heh, makes me think of the experience riding a rollercoaster without having to physically ride one. You get all excited in anticipation when it goes up, and then your ass goes in your throat when it drops. 
I'm keeping my wallet well away from that.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 8, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Please some of you stop the bs, el salvador is an island, they have no gdp that would make a dent on btc price in any way, if china or the US would have adopted btc then yes. Anyway, I still think btc will go to 79k then crash back to 10k, this is just a trap for people to sell before going up again and the road is clear 79k then when sheeps think btc will go to 100k then the manipulators will crash btc price as much as 80% and the rest of all altcoins as much as 99%.



i think el salvador going bitcoin official tender today is why this crash happened when it did.. somebody dosnt want it to get off to a good start.. 

trog


----------



## Outback Bronze (Sep 8, 2021)

cvaldes said:


> There is no government entity that controls cryptocurrency pricing



Well this can be an issue yeah. It can be manipulated by these so called whales no?

Its not what you know it's who you know...


----------



## trog100 (Sep 8, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> One could argue that point with a reasonable measure of success given how greedy, cruel and corrupt we insist on and continue being to each other.



lets not forget we are but clever monkeys.. we are still driven by exactly the same things that drive not so clever monkeys.. 

trog


----------



## Metroid (Sep 8, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Well this can be an issue yeah. It can be manipulated by these so called whales no?
> 
> Its not what you know it's who you know...


You trolls need to check history, so far in all crypto currency history, that is the best way to determine where this is going short, medium and long term, history shows everything, to this date history never failed, always the same direction.


----------



## Liquid Cool (Sep 9, 2021)

If I was given the following multiple choice question... 


Which of these is true about cryptocurrency:

a) "There is no government entity that controls cryptocurrency pricing."

b) Governing bodies are in complete control of cryptocurrency pricing.  

c) Cryptocurrency is a government initiative.

d) Cryptocurrency is the catalyst for a digital currency that will be monitored, controlled, and heavily taxed by a private banking cartel.

e) All of the above.


My choice would be clear.

Best Regards, 

Liquid Cool


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 11, 2021)

I think Bitcoin is heading toward $40k by the end of the month. The punch bowl is still out but there might be too many things that investors can buy now.


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Sep 11, 2021)

Liquid Cool said:


> If I was given the following multiple choice question...
> 
> 
> Which of these is true about cryptocurrency:
> ...


Cryptocurrency or something like it will just be the digital asset used to perform financial transactions. It will still need to be backed by something, which will most likely be gold and other precious metals. If and when a global financial crisis gets bad enough, rest assured they will be confiscating those metals(jewelry, coins, bars, etc.). Anyway, before that happens, the USD needs to be taken out of the way or at least replaced by something that will be widely accepted and considered more valuable. Perhaps in a decade it may be possible, but barring an unforeseeable crisis, I don't think its going to happen any time soon; especially with crypto since its not really backed with anything tangible.


----------



## Chomiq (Sep 11, 2021)

> A survey by the Central American University (UCA) found that only 4.8% of the 1,281 asked understood what Bitcoin was and how it was used.
> More than 68% of those questioned said they disagreed with using crypto-currency as a legal tender.











						Bitcoin: El Salvador divided over legal tender law
					

The country will be the first to recognise the crypto-currency as legal tender from September 7.



					www.bbc.com
				





> The price of Bitcoin on Tuesday crashed to its lowest in nearly a month, falling from $52,000 (£37,730) to under $43,000 at one point.
> An opposition politician said the fall caused one of Latin America's poorest countries to lose $3m.











						Bitcoin crashes on first day as El Salvador's legal tender
					

Technological glitches plagued the first day of El Salvador accepting Bitcoin as legal tender.



					www.bbc.com
				



But no, "it's the evil banks trying to devalue bitcoin".

Here's an interview with the journalist based in El Salvador plus some discussion about other countries:








						World Business Report - El Salvador makes Bitcoin legal tender - BBC Sounds
					

El Salvador is the first nation to recognise the cryptocurrency Bitcoin as legal tender




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Hardcore Games (Sep 12, 2021)

Mining now is not what it was. Chia thrashed hard disks galore for what, a chance? 

Existing miners earnings are all over the dial due to the number of transactions. 

The new guy, do something else, video card's usefulness is falling over time, and more are looking at specialised machines 

Regulators have been slow to step up which is a disservice. So many rip offs, its obscene.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Sep 13, 2021)

Hardcore Games said:


> Mining now is not what it was. Chia thrashed hard disks galore for what,* a chance*?



Precisely.



Hardcore Games said:


> Existing miners earnings are all over the dial due to the number of transactions.



In the end, isn't that kind of the point?  It's crypto*currency*, and was ostensibly meant to be a means of exchange, not a store of value or an asset on its own merit.



Hardcore Games said:


> The new guy, do something else, video card's usefulness is falling over time, and more are looking at specialised machines
> 
> Regulators have been slow to step up which is a disservice. So many rip offs, its obscene.



I don't necessarily agree with your stance on regulation here.  I accept regulation as inevitable in a large-scale society, but generally feel that lesser is better.  So when regulations are put in place, I'd prefer that the regulators have enough time and data to (hypothetically) make the "right"-est-as-possible decisions with those regs.


----------



## dorsetknob (Sep 13, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Please some of you stop the bs, el salvador is an island,


Um.....no island shown in google called El Salvador
However perhaps my Google is out of Date

ps read somewhere Musk is screwing the market again by nameing his pet Dog after some varient of e coin


----------



## Hardcore Games (Sep 13, 2021)

Hopefully Chia enthusiasts stop buying hard disks so that prices will ease so I can get some bigger disks for media etc


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 13, 2021)

Hardcore Games said:


> Hopefully Chia enthusiasts stop buying hard disks so that prices will ease so I can get some bigger disks for media etc


Chia mining has not affected the prices of rotational hard disk drives.

Chia mining did affect SSD pricing but Chia mining is already a bust and various media sources have reported miners dumping used SSDs on the market.

However don't expect new SSD prices to tumble. There's a widespread semiconductor shortage, not just GPUs and CPUs but basically every chip. The auto industry has been heavily affected. A lot of this comes down to materials shortages, none of which are expected to ease up in the short term. There's increasing demand and inadequate supply. It takes a lot of capital and time to build new foundries. Unsurprisingly the pandemic has not helped.


----------



## Chomiq (Sep 13, 2021)

Fake Walmart news release claimed it would accept cryptocurrency
					

A news story claiming Walmart would accept cryptocurrency Litecoin was fabricated, the retail giant says.



					www.bbc.com
				





> But while it was being reported as fact, the price of Litecoin jumped from about £125 per token to close to £170, before falling back near its original price, at about £128.
> It is not clear who was behind the fake release, or how they managed to publish it.


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 13, 2021)

Hi,
Seems easy to figure out 
Just follow sells.


----------



## Hardcore Games (Sep 13, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> Fake Walmart news release claimed it would accept cryptocurrency
> 
> 
> A news story claiming Walmart would accept cryptocurrency Litecoin was fabricated, the retail giant says.
> ...


Ads to the Ponzi nature of the claim with pump and dump


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Sep 14, 2021)

Hardcore Games said:


> Ads to the Ponzi nature of the claim with pump and dump


I don't know what idiots get out of doing stuff like that with their fake news. They must be a Pumpty Dumpty-wannabe. I think they should be "pumped" full of Helium gas and "dumped" at the nearest landfill.


----------



## Rithsom (Sep 20, 2021)

You all might want to keep an eye on crypto prices today. I woke up this morning and saw that BTC and ETH slumped almost 10% in the past 12 hours.

I noticed that when crypto dips suddenly, it usually swings back up within a day and recovers a little. By tomorrow, I expect maybe a net decline in crypto prices of around 5%. Still, I'd be concerned right now if I was invested.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 20, 2021)

Buy point is $40k for me. It is still far from that. Stock market is having a bit of correction today. This is why as an investor you should always have cash set aside to buy the dip.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 20, 2021)

The whole cryptocoin market is crashing again. I wonder what caused it this time?


----------



## Metroid (Sep 20, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> The whole cryptocoin market is crashing again. I wonder what caused it this time?


no fast volume, meaning if no volume then people get apprehensive and start selling, many people just buy wait a little and then sell, they know this crypto market will crash anytime hard, however I still think btc will go a little higher than 64k, to 79k then crash hard to 9.6k, hit that legendary cme gap and then will stabilize around 15k for the next 3 to 5 years or so.


----------



## Liquid Cool (Sep 20, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> The whole cryptocoin market is crashing again. I wonder what caused it this time?



Good morning LLM...

Perhaps the cryptos are just caught up in the drama going on in the broad markets.  

The broad markets have been reaching a 30-day cycle low every 30 days from the May 10th peak(May 19th low).  That is unless the 30 day period is over a weekend.  Which for us currently was yesterday, the 19th of September.  So...you get the scary stuff the following day...which is today.  Now...if you don't get a reversal tomorrow, then it's a heads up that something else might be afoot.  




Best Regards,

Liquid Cool


----------



## trog100 (Sep 20, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> The whole cryptocoin market is crashing again. I wonder what caused it this time?



evergrande a large chinese properly set up going or gone bust.. its spooking the markets including the crypto markets..

how it all pans out is yet to be seen.. it could trigger a world wide melt down.. 

its not crypto specific.. 

trog


----------



## Nater (Sep 20, 2021)

I bought $100 of Bitcoin this morning when it dipped to 44.8k.  Should have waited just a few more hours.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 20, 2021)

Weird. Has that happened before? The cryptomarket mirroring the stock markets?

In case anyone wonders, I watch the following;








						Coinranking | Cryptocurrency Price List - Top 50 Coins Today
					

View the list with all cryptocurrency prices of today. View live values of Bitcoin, Ethereum and thousands more.




					coinranking.com


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 20, 2021)

Nater said:


> I bought $100 of Bitcoin this morning when it dipped to 44.8k.  Should have waited just a few more hours.


Lesson I learned over many years of investing - never buy the first dip. If it makes a quick bounce back, okay, you miss it, but the gain would not be that much anyway. But if you buy during the downward spiral, the pain will be felt.


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 20, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> The whole cryptocoin market is crashing again. I wonder what caused it this time?


Crypto is still an extremely immature financial marketplace.

It is regularly subject to the capricious behavior of easily distracted buyers and sellers as well as broad market influences. Selloffs of 50%+ are routine for cryptos. Crypto is not an island. It's still emotional humans buying and selling.

Crypto is a good market for swing trading. It is still way too volatile for long-term investing unless you don't care much about sleeping soundly.

This still looks like a typical crypto selloff to me.

And it's not like half of the miners turned off their rigs. In fact, this is an excellent example of how little miners influence spot crypto pricing. Nor do we see GPU prices plummeting today either.

If you want to make money in crypto, trade the currency.

Mining really only makes money for exchanges and brokers (through fees and commissions). Oh, and lest we forget: electric utility companies.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 20, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Weird. Has that happened before? The cryptomarket mirroring the stock markets?
> 
> In case anyone wonders, I watch the following;
> 
> ...



ultimately its all connected.. when things look good prices go up when they look bad prices go down.. gold and silver also took a hit..

there is a real fear that contagion will spread from china to the rest of the world.. in the modern world everybody owes everybody.. if evergrande defaults on its debt repayments it mean a whole bunch of other people wont have the money to meet their own debt repayments.. its a house of cards waiting to collapse.. 

over time some things will recover faster than others.. this little crisis may just blow over but it could spiral out of control... we will soon know..

trog


----------



## Nater (Sep 20, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Lesson I learned over many years of investing - never buy the first dip. If it makes a quick bounce back, okay, you miss it, but the gain would not be that much anyway. But if you buy during the downward spiral, the pain will be felt.


Haha, funny u say that.  I didn't!  I almost bought a couple hours before that but decided to go back to sleep.  (my phone had dinged w/ the dip alert)  Guess I should have waited for everyone else to get out of bed.


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 20, 2021)

Uh, cryptocurrencies aren't exclusively traded by people in your timezone.

About a third of the world is sleep, the rest are awake. At any given moment there are people going to sleep and people waking up.

Note that cryptocurrency is traded 24x7 unlike the major securities and commodity markets. You don't need to wait until 9:30am ET on a weekday to start trading crypto.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 20, 2021)

trog100 said:


> ultimately its all connected.. when things look good prices go up when they look bad prices go down.. gold and silver also took a hit..
> 
> there is a real fear that contagion will spread from china to the rest of the world.. in the modern world everybody owes everybody.. if evergrande defaults on its debt repayments it mean a whole bunch of other people wont have the money to meet their own debt repayments.. its a house of cards waiting to collapse..
> 
> ...


China would not let it go bankrupt. Rather, it wants to use this as an opportunity to show why unregulated capitalism is bad. It will lay out its agenda in the coming days or weeks, but ultimately will help the company so it won't go under. However, investors or creditors of Evergrande will suffer losses. If anyone who is interested to invest, wait a few days or a week. It should dip further but it will bounce back. This could be a good investment opportunity.


----------



## defaultluser (Sep 20, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> China would not let it go bankrupt. Rather, it wants to use this as an opportunity to show why unregulated capitalism is bad. It will lay out its agenda in the coming days or weeks, but ultimately will help the company so it won't go under. However, investors or creditors of Evergrande will suffer losses. If anyone who is interested to invest, wait a few days or a week. It should dip further but it will bounce back. This could be a good investment opportunity.




This doesn't matter if you can still prop things up:  see the last financial crisis, where it took years for banks to start trusting businesses / individuals with loans again!  Your housing builder bailout plan is going to have to make viability checks to every development in your future catalog *to avoid building phantom towns*  (or else you will just see the same thing a few years later)






						Under-occupied developments in China - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




The bailouts are just intended to  to pay staff, and  refill the coffers after they hit the "reset" button ; bailouts are just intended so you don't have to rebuild an entire loan industry from the ground-up.

And if you think they don't make a lot of these debts just magically disappear during the bailout, you're smoking something quite powerful!!


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 21, 2021)

defaultluser said:


> This doesn't matter if you can still prop things up:  see the last financial crisis, where it took years for banks to start trusting businesses / individuals with loans again!  Your housing builder bailout plan is going to have to make viability checks to every development in your future catalog *to avoid building phantom towns*  (or else you will just see the same thing a few years later)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I have no idea what you just said. Are you saying no bailout? Bailout is bad?


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 21, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Please some of you stop the bs, el salvador is an island, they have no gdp that would make a dent on btc price in any way, if china or the US would have adopted btc then yes. Anyway, I still think btc will go to 79k then crash back to 10k, this is just a trap for people to sell before going up again and the road is clear 79k then when sheeps think btc will go to 100k then the manipulators will crash btc price as much as 80% and the rest of all altcoins as much as 99%.


I too doubt any of this most recent crash has jack to do with El Salvador.  They are limited to publicity in terms of how they affect the price, not much more.

Do note however, El Salvador is a country in central America, not an island.



cvaldes said:


> And it's not like half of the miners turned off their rigs.


I mean, China did basically just do that.  But we have recovered from it by now and that only drove the price up...  less supply etc.  Then difficulty adjusted nullifying it.



lexluthermiester said:


> Weird. Has that happened before? The cryptomarket mirroring the stock markets?


It is indeed uncommon.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 21, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It is indeed uncommon.


Ok, so I'm not alone in thinking that..


----------



## Chomiq (Sep 21, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> China would not let it go bankrupt. Rather, it wants to use this as an opportunity to show why unregulated capitalism is bad.


Not according to this:


> In a post on China's chat app and social media platform WeChat, the influential editor-in-chief of state-backed Global Times newspaper Hu Xijin said Evergrande should not rely on a government bailout and instead needs to save itself.
> This also chimes with Beijing's aim to rein in corporate debt, which means that such a high profile bailout could be seen as setting a bad example.











						Evergrande: China property giant misses debt deadline
					

Chinese property giant declared in default by a credit rating firm after missing a crucial interest payment.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Outback Bronze (Sep 21, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> It is indeed uncommon.



It seems to be coming more common though no?

Remember March 2020? Everything fell together. I'm under the impression they are becoming more tied as time moves forward.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 21, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> Not according to this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Again, China is going to use this golden opportunity to “teach a lesson” that unregulated capitalism is bad. The thing that started Evergrande’s collapse was a new law that regulates a company from getting new loan based on its cash flow. Suddenly Evergrande’s pyramid scheme of borrowing more money to pay its debt doesn’t work anymore. China making that law knowing full well Evergrande will be going under. How could it not know? Evergrande is the second largest real estate company in China with a $300 billion pyramid scheme. Heck, the law was probably written just for it 
I don’t know exactly how the bailout will be structured, but Evergrande still has plenty of real properties, and the government will step in to divide them up to other real estate companies and get them to pay the banks, something of that nature. It is indeed too big to fail, with its finances too intertwined with too many banks in China. The sell off of the market yesterday was due to the concerns of cross default. Otherwise, why would a failed company in China worries investors in USA?
However, Evergrande as it stands now will probably be gone. The losers will be foreign investors and creditors. China will protect its domestic banks and investors, but not any foreigners, so don’t buy the stock even if it looks super cheap.


----------



## defaultluser (Sep 21, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> I have no idea what you just said. Are you saying no bailout? Bailout is bad?




No, I'm saying that no bailout can avert the massive change in business practices a housing provider in China needs to  make (As part of their bailout plan)

An EXAMPLE: when the US Government bailed-out General Motors, they came with several caveats  attached.: Close unprofitable divisions like Saturn, Pontiac, Sabb, , allow the us ngovernemnt to elect board members and then then modify how easily they process loan applications on their cars through General Motors Acceptance Corporation* (*GMAC).

There will be similar long-list of required business changes in any other bailout *(and for China housing, if half of your available "regular" developers" disappear, then they business just stops moving* ) - your planned developments need to get unplanned overnight!

There is always fallout from any major business change.


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 21, 2021)

LFaWolf said:


> Again, China is going to use this golden opportunity to “teach a lesson” that unregulated capitalism is bad. The thing that started Evergrande’s collapse was a new law that regulates a company from getting new loan based on its cash flow. Suddenly Evergrande’s pyramid scheme of borrowing more money to pay its debt doesn’t work anymore. China making that law knowing full well Evergrande will be going under. How could it not know? Evergrande is the second largest real estate company in China with a $300 billion pyramid scheme. Heck, the law was probably written just for it
> I don’t know exactly how the bailout will be structured, but Evergrande still has plenty of real properties, and the government will step in to divide them up to other real estate companies and get them to pay the banks, something of that nature. It is indeed too big to fail, with its finances too intertwined with too many banks in China. The sell off of the market yesterday was due to the concerns of cross default. Otherwise, why would a failed company in China worries investors in USA?
> However, Evergrande as it stands now will probably be gone. The losers will be foreign investors and creditors. China will protect its domestic banks and investors, but not any foreigners, so don’t buy the stock even if it looks super cheap.


Hi,
Yeah they'll use that argument but in the end China gov will just teach them how to manipulate data properly just as they do with their currency so loss/ inflation doesn't occur at all


----------



## R0H1T (Sep 21, 2021)

trog100 said:


> evergrande a large chinese properly set up going or* gone bust*.. its spooking the markets including the crypto markets..
> 
> how it all pans out is yet to be seen.. it could trigger a world wide melt down..
> 
> ...


They won't, unless the CCP finds absolutely no use for it!


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 21, 2021)

Hey folks, while this discussion is interesting, we're getting off topic here. Let's rope it in so the mods don't have to...


----------



## trog100 (Sep 21, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Hey folks, while this discussion is interesting, we're getting off topic here. Let's rope it in so the mods don't have to...



you wondered why crypto was going down.. evergrande and what is happening to it is part of that why..

it is quite serious and hasnt fully panned out yet.. as i keep saying on the grand scale of things it is all connected..

for a number of years china has been building towns that nobody will ever live in.. this has been seen as an investment.. maybe poorly built skyscrapers that will fall apart with age and will never be lived in aint such a good investment after all.. this thing is way bigger than evergrande.. they were just part of it..

trog


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 21, 2021)

As crypto matures and becomes more mainstream, it will increasingly be tied to the broader financial markets. Ecuador accepting bitcoin as legal tender is just one of these moments.

The days of crypto being completely isolated from the rest of the financial world are coming to a close faster than many here seem to understand.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 21, 2021)

Bitcoin is tumbling toward $40k as I have predicted. I think $40k is the support. If it breaks through that then I think it could go down further.

Ethereum is below $2900 as of now. I am not sure what would be the support line since I don't follow it much. Anyone has any idea?

Someone recommended me to buy Uni Swap at $25. Whew, avoided that disaster.


----------



## dorsetknob (Sep 21, 2021)

cvaldes said:


> Ecuador accepting bitcoin as legal tender


Think you mean El Salvador.
The *present currency of Ecuador* is the United States dollar.


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 21, 2021)

Yes, yes, I meant El Salvador.

The point is that they won't be the first and last country to adopt a cryptocurrency as legal tender. They are just the start.



LFaWolf said:


> Bitcoin is tumbling toward $40k as I have predicted. I think $40k is the support. If it breaks through that then I think it could go down further.
> 
> Ethereum is below $2900 as of now. I am not sure what would be the support line since I don't follow it much. Anyone has any idea?


I don't track cryptocurrencies closely but I glanced at some technical indicators (Bollinger Band, RSI, ADX, OBV, MACD 3 months) for ETH and my guess is that support lies somewhere around 2850, maybe 2800.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 21, 2021)

well crypto is still tanking.. this evergrande contagion thing aint over yet.. we will see what tomorrow brings.. 

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 21, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> It seems to be coming more common though no?
> 
> Remember March 2020? Everything fell together. I'm under the impression they are becoming more tied as time moves forward.


I do think this is the case.  Probably a sign crypto is becoming less and less a "rebel currency" and more and more mainstream.



trog100 said:


> well crypto is still tanking.. this evergrande contagion thing aint over yet.. we will see what tomorrow brings..
> 
> trog


I swapped my assets to stable coins when the tanking started.  Neat trick.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 22, 2021)

cvaldes said:


> The point is that they won't be the first and last country to adopt a cryptocurrency as legal tender. They are just the start.


Maybe. Time will tell..


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 22, 2021)

There are plenty of other countries in a similar situation as El Salvador. Cryptocurrencies facilitate importing money from abroad without the exorbitant fees.

My guess is that all nations are watching El Salvador very closely. No one wants to be first but everyone wants to be second.

Most likely there are 20-30 countries who are in direct contact with El Salvadoran financial officials right now asking questions how they did it. Free market economies want easy movement of money.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 22, 2021)

cvaldes said:


> There are plenty of other countries in a similar situation as El Salvador. Cryptocurrencies facilitate importing money from abroad without the exorbitant fees.
> 
> My guess is that all nations are watching El Salvador very closely. No one wants to be first but everyone wants to be second.
> 
> Most likely there are 20-30 countries who are in direct contact with El Salvadoran financial officials right now asking questions how they did it. Free market economies want easy movement of money.


You assume an all-positive outcome. El Salvador is a hot-bed of criminal activity. No nations will look to them for guidance...



cvaldes said:


> Cryptocurrencies help import money without the exorbitant fees.


Yeah it's called money laundering and most, if not all, of it is a crime.


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 22, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> You assume an all-positive outcome. ElSalvador is a hot-bed of criminal activity. No nations will look to them for guidance...
> 
> 
> Yeah it's called money laundering and most, if not all, of it is a crime.


I never said everything would be lawful and rosy; don't put false words in my mouth.

There have been plenty of sketchy behavior in the highest boardrooms of American public corporations.

Lehman Brothers anyone?

In any case, it sounds like you are burying your head in the sand. A lot of the money that is being transmitted into El Salvador is from expatriate laborers sending money back to their families, not drug lords and arms dealers.

Here in my area, there's a lot of immigrants who send money back to relatives and most of it is very well-intended and lawful.

There are always people who try to trick the system.

I know your propensity is to only believe in your personal worldview bubble and that you are the only one who is right.

Guess what? You aren't. Sorry about that.

My guess is that the world will make what El Salvador is currently doing much more difficult in the future. But not tomorrow, not next week, not next month.

But I assure you that El Salvador will not be the last.

Someday another country will adopt a cryptocurrency as legal tender...


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 22, 2021)

Huh, moving on...

Things seem to be leveling off for the last little while. This is a very weird dynamic.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 22, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Huh, moving on...
> 
> Things seem to be leveling off for the last little while. This is a very weird dynamic.



yes bitcoin seems to have leveled off at 42K with eth around 3K.. but its not over yet.. he he

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> yes bitcoin seems to have leveled off at 42K with eth around 3K.. but its not over yet.. he he
> 
> trog


You're expecting a bigger drop?


----------



## trog100 (Sep 22, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> You're expecting a bigger drop?


i was but not so much now its leveled off... i think its very dependent on what happens in the general stock and bond markets.. if they go down crypto will go down with them..

i still think its early days and anything could happen.. i dont believe the CCP can just wave a magic wand and and make their over leveraged housing market bubble go away.. its gone too far for that to happen.. lets say i am more pessimistic than most..

trog


----------



## 95Viper (Sep 22, 2021)

Stay on topic.
Stop the trolling/flame baiting/arguing/etc.!
Any more of this behavior... there will be points and bans issued.

Have a Good Day.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 23, 2021)

well.. bitcoin is back up near 44K.. the dump seem to be over and things are on the way up again..

i dont think the chinese real estate problems are over but things have quietened down at least for a while..

trog

ps.. for what its worth i do think this recent crypto dump was entirety caused by recent evergrande fears.. nothing else.. which is why i mention it..


----------



## Chomiq (Sep 23, 2021)

Evergrande: Shares in crisis-hit firm jump as debt deadline looms
					

The debt-laden developer is due to make a $83.5m interest payment on an overseas bond on Thursday.



					www.bbc.com
				



The show ain't over until Winnie the Pooh signs.


> The company had moved to placate investors, saying in a statement on Wednesday that it would pay interest payments for its domestic bonds.
> The amount due for the domestic bond is estimated to be $35.9m (£26.3m).





> "Until there is certainty regarding how the government will deal with Evergrande, investors are likely to remain jittery," Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, Fidelity International told the BBC.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 23, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> Evergrande: Shares in crisis-hit firm jump as debt deadline looms
> 
> 
> The debt-laden developer is due to make a $83.5m interest payment on an overseas bond on Thursday.
> ...


Winnie the Pooh, I know what you did there...


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 23, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> Evergrande: Shares in crisis-hit firm jump as debt deadline looms
> 
> 
> The debt-laden developer is due to make a $83.5m interest payment on an overseas bond on Thursday.
> ...


It seems to be for crypto, though.  The value has been shooting upwards again.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 23, 2021)

The term "shooting upwards" might be an over-statement. It's definitely on the upward swing ATM..


----------



## Outback Bronze (Sep 23, 2021)

Like to tip in BTC anybody?

You can now get paid in bitcoin to use Twitter (cnbc.com)


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 23, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Like to tip in BTC anybody?


Not really.  Any other crypto?  Maybe.  BTC transaction fees are way too high to make anything short of like, a $500 tip feasible...



lexluthermiester said:


> The term "shooting upwards" might be an over-statement. It's definitely on the upward swing ATM..


Meh, just words that came to mind.  It isn't moonshooting or anything.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 24, 2021)

bitcoin is up over 45K and still seems to be climbing.. the stock markets are flat or in the red.. the chinese real estate fears still seem to be hanging around as regards the stock markets..

trog

ps.. since writing this bitcoin has taken a rapid dive back down to 43K.. this has to be connected to the euro stock markets opening in the red.. as soon as the markets opened bitcoin was kicked back down from 45K to 43K.. i did think it a little odd at the time but it seems bitcoin was getting a little bit in front of itself.. 

for reasons unknown eth is taking a bigger hit than bitcoin.. its down near 2800.. it seems the markets were a little premature in discounting the evergrande problems..


----------



## Liquid Cool (Sep 24, 2021)

In eth...2800 is support(BTC same with 40k) - for now.   You're doing nothing out of the ordinary here, just a retest.  If they can't probe any lower...they'll attempt to crack it higher. Then...I might have a comment or two because we're heading into a very serious inflection point.

Life changing...from my perspective.

Best,

Liquid Cool


----------



## Outback Bronze (Sep 24, 2021)

trog100 said:


> this has to be connected to the euro stock markets opening in the red.



Could be the China FUD going on as well..

Bitcoin drops after People’s Bank of China declares all crypto illegal | Evening Standard


----------



## sepheronx (Sep 24, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Could be the China FUD going on as well..
> 
> Bitcoin drops after People’s Bank of China declares all crypto illegal | Evening Standard


Which is like the 3rd time this year.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 24, 2021)

And the plummet continues.


----------



## Colddecked (Sep 24, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> And the plummet continues.



I was expecting more of a blood bath tbh...


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 24, 2021)

Colddecked said:


> I was expecting more of a blood bath tbh...


This news is hours old and half the world still needs to wake up..


----------



## Metroid (Sep 24, 2021)

This is looking much like 2013 and that is when china banned btc for the first time and after that btc crashed more than 90%, in 2017 same thing but a bit later on.

"In 2013, China's central bank barred financial institutions from handling bitcoin (BTC, -5.97%)transactions, according to a notice from China Securities Regulatory Commission.

And then again in 2017, the central bank in China declared initial coin offerings as illegal, which caused bitcoin's price to fall."









						China Reiterates Crypto Bans From 2013 and 2017
					

Regulators cite the dangers of speculative trading.




					www.coindesk.com
				




This will only get worse, yesterday a renowned investor said that when btc gets too big then governments might ban btc and cryptos in a chain reaction, right now only communists countries will likely do it, most likely chinese allies.

Never leave 100% of your money in crypto, if in doubt then sell 70% and stay with 30%. The crash will come but is hard to know when as there are too many bulltraps.


----------



## sepheronx (Sep 24, 2021)

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pugq7m


----------



## R0H1T (Sep 24, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pugq7m


Yes & I say it's still a scam!


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 24, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pugq7m


That is just a sad statement. I mean really, you're citing Reddit. So let's help you with things, shall we?








						China's top regulators ban crypto trading and mining, sending bitcoin tumbling
					

China's most powerful regulators on Friday intensified a crackdown on cryptocurrencies with a blanket ban on all crypto transactions and mining, hitting bitcoin and other major coins and pressuring crypto and blockchain-related stocks.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## ThrashZone (Sep 24, 2021)

HI,
Could be considered more manipulation too without Musk lol
Like all stocks buy low sell high applies.


----------



## Vayra86 (Sep 24, 2021)

Pump & Dump + forever in beta.

I think thats the state of crypto now, in ten years, and as it has always been. As long as there are believers, it will keep going. Im playing along now too, just for giggles. There is no sense to be found...


----------



## sepheronx (Sep 24, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Pump & Dump + forever in beta.
> 
> I think thats the state of crypto now, in ten years, and as it has always been. As long as there are believers, it will keep going. Im playing along now too, just for giggles. There is no sense to be found...


If you wanna play, try Ravencoin lite.  Maybe you will make it rich off of one GPU and you can buy me that island I always wanted.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 24, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> Which is like the 3rd time this year.


Yep.  They are reiterating a ruling from 2013 and people are jumping all over it like it's news.

Friggin lol.



Vayra86 said:


> Pump & Dump + forever in beta


Dumps are getting less dramatic massively.  If you ask me, it's showing much more maturity than last time.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 24, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Yep. They are reiterating a ruling from 2013 and people are jumping all over it like it's news.
> 
> Friggin lol.


Nope, this is a new thing as shown here:








						China's top regulators ban crypto trading and mining, sending bitcoin tumbling
					

China's most powerful regulators on Friday intensified a crackdown on cryptocurrencies with a blanket ban on all crypto transactions and mining, hitting bitcoin and other major coins and pressuring crypto and blockchain-related stocks.




					www.reuters.com
				







Pay careful attention to the wording and the date of the article.

Can we stop with the whining and disinformation?


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 24, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Can we stop with the whining and disinformation?


Aparently not.  You are citing an article without an original source to support it's claims.

I've provided an original source in the other thread.  Crossposting here:



lexluthermiester said:


> How about the opening paragraph?


I'd advise going to the horses mouth.

For those not interested in dealing with weird central bank website, and wanting the original text of the 2013 ruling to translate themselves, here it is:



> 中国人民银行等五部委发布《关于防范比特币风险的通知》
> 
> 字号 大 中 小     文章来源：沟通交流     2013-12-05 15:39:14
> 打印本页　 关闭窗口
> ...



If anyone can find a more up to date version stating something actually new, post it.

In english courtesy google translate:



> Five ministries and commissions including the People's Bank of China issued the "Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks"
> 
> Font Size Big Middle Small Article Source: Communication 2013-12-05 15:39:14
> Print this page 　 Close window
> ...


To be clear, I'm open to the possiblilty that the ban has been broadened but I've seen no actual state text saying so, which leaves me highly skeptical.  They seem to be restating the old ruling and the typical media misunderstanding of what's what with crypto seems to be the issue here.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 24, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Aparently not. You are citing an article without an original source to support it's claims.


Go talk to Reuters or you can go looking for the Chinese government announcement yourself. Until then, the Reuters report is valid.


R-T-B said:


> I've provided an original source in the other thread.


The info you posted in the other thread IS an old report, the existence of which does NOT invalidate current events.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 24, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> The info you posted in the other thread IS an old report,


So find a newer one.  I can't.  Your sources provide NO reports except vague references to the one I linked, and various other sources mention a "restatement" of the ban, which I find far more credible given what's coming from the central bank.

Forbes's take:









						Crypto Markets Wipe Out $150 Billion In Value Within Hours Of China’s Latest ‘Bitcoin Ban’—What’s Next?
					

The plunge erased virtually all of the gains since a Monday selloff triggered the crypto market's worst decline in weeks.




					www.forbes.com
				






> In yet another testament to the nascent market’s extreme volatility, cryptocurrency prices tumbled Friday morning after China’s central bank *reiterated* a sweeping ban on digital asset *transactions*, prompting some experts to warn the harsh rhetoric may encourage more nations to take similar measures, while others pointed out that prices have quickly recovered from such announcements in the past.


Seems Forbes is confused too.  You should write them.  Maybe the central bank too.



lexluthermiester said:


> Go talk to Reuters or you can go looking for the Chinese government announcement yourself.


Did you miss it above?  There isn't a newer one.  Just restatements of it.

In the end it doesn't matter really, because bitcoin fled China earlier this year.  Thus, it will hurt the price, but the impact will be short lived because no real money resides there.

This is china's role in bitcoin's price:

This one today,

2017,

2013

Probably more.  tl;dr you can only ban something once.  They never "reallowed it."  They just enjoy crashing the market.

EDIT:  I did some more reading.

It seems while mining is still legal TECHNICALLY you can't access the funds from it without breaking the law.  So why do it?  It's basically like saying hotrods are legal but you can only run them in neutral, suddenly no one cares.

This is probably where the confusion comes from with me and @lexluthermiester.  It's a case of it being technically legal, but practically illegal.  No one would bother.  Thus, the news isn't really all that far off, if you can even say it is.  It's a case of me being extremely technically acurate (almost to a fault), vs reality of the situation.  I fall for that sometimes.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 24, 2021)

all in all an interesting day.. first of all an unexpected dump.. finishing with an unexpected recovery.. its not fully back to where it was at the beginning of the day but its well on its way.. 

one thing is for sure.. when crypto takes a hit this this thread livens up in a boringly predicable way.. he he he

trog


----------



## Vayra86 (Sep 25, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Yep.  They are reiterating a ruling from 2013 and people are jumping all over it like it's news.
> 
> Friggin lol.
> 
> ...



Much more but still so far away from anything you could call stability for use as currency... I do agree. Have we had the highest peak / dump last summer perhaps?

At the same time if you look at the coins themselves, the tech is still moving forward and still makes older coins less interesting, if anything perhaps that momentum is even getting bigger as coins also start working as frameworks. Its really a copy of platform based economics. And every coin wants to pull an App Store success.

Looking at Cardano for example... that is why I think and say Forever in beta. New Coins are actually iterative development with live assets. When might that stop? We have no idea...


----------



## trog100 (Sep 29, 2021)

well not a lot happening in the crypto world or this thread.. bitcoin seem to be hovering between 41 and 42K.. the "experts" seems to think these are critical levels.. a break up or a break down is anticipated.. sadly they havnt a clue which way is most likely.. he he

i think the same applies to the stock markets.. they could go up or they could go down.. nobody knows.. he he

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 29, 2021)

Looks like things are holding steady for a few days.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 1, 2021)

bitcoin is back up near 45K and the stock markets are all in the red..

i am a bit surprised i would have thought stock markets would have to be back in the green before crypto could go up again but maybe my thinking was wrong..

trog

ps.. a couple of hours later.. up near 47K now.. its ether gonna crash back down a few K or its up up and away.. i am gonna go for up up and away but i could be wrong.. he he


----------



## LFaWolf (Oct 1, 2021)

Probably due to cash inflow from people fleeing the stock market after an atrocious week and the expired $3B Bitcoin options last week. I don’t see Bitcoin going past $50k in October because I think there will be people that bought near $41k selling.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 1, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin is back up near 45K and the stock markets are all in the red..
> 
> i am a bit surprised i would have thought stock markets would have to be back in the green before crypto could go up again but maybe my thinking was wrong..
> 
> ...


Yeah, it seems safe to conclude that the cryptocoin market and the stock market are just not going along in harmony with each other.


----------



## Liquid Cool (Oct 1, 2021)

The Dow is up 600?  At least in the US...I see the trend continues.

Light resistance here in the 47's and stiffer resistance at 50k, then 60k.  I'd personally like to see a secondary peak put in here sooner than later aka now, or over the next few days(with the first peak being 9.06.21).



From my viewpoint...both markets have been signaling they'd like to explode/implode together.

You know my vote...

Best,

Liquid Cool


----------



## trog100 (Oct 1, 2021)

i think bitcoin was being held back now its been let loose.. i see no other explanation for its effortless 12% price increase over the day..

all very strange.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Oct 3, 2021)

bitcoin  is now moving sideways at around 48K or just below.. i am expecting a move up to 51K soon but that is just my own opinion..

eth is doing a tad better and is now at 3400.. a slight movement to the upside is going on but not by much..

crypto is looking good so there will not be much activity in this thread until some bad news arrives.. 

gpu mining isnt as profitable as it was so ebay gpu prices have dropped accordingly.. i dont think they will go much lower though..

trog


----------



## Rithsom (Oct 3, 2021)

As an electrical engineering student, I can't help but mention that the graph of BTC's value is starting to resemble a certain transient response.

Specifically, the value of BTC over the past year looks similar to the voltage of a capacitor with respect to time in an underdamped, series RLC circuit. When a DC voltage is applied instantly to the circuit, the voltage across the cap climbs to a peak value, then drops somewhat, and eventually reaches a stable value.












Maybe BTC will also reach a stable value some day?


----------



## Metroid (Oct 3, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i think bitcoin was being held back now its been let loose.. i see no other explanation for its effortless 12% price increase over the day..
> 
> all very strange..
> 
> trog


All manipulation, manipulators know they have just one shot and they need to pump this hard and then crash this hard, prior bear market is always like this, last chance to pump high and then dump hard and then quit the market altogether and return in few years with lots of promise of returns plus with all the new printed money, lies, media and so on, reason crypto is all about cycles, if you think long term you lose in this game because playing the short term will earn up to 1000x more than just hold long term, because buying the crashes and selling high and so on is better than hoping for the best and dreaming this will only go up.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 3, 2021)

Metroid said:


> All manipulation, manipulators know they have just one shot and they need to pump this hard and then crash this hard, prior bear market is always like this, last chance to pump high and then dump hard and then quit the market altogether and return in few years with lots of promise of returns plus with all the new printed money, lies, media and so on, reason crypto is all about cycles, if you think long term you lose in this game because playing the short term will earn up to 1000x more than just hold long term, because buying the crashes and selling high and so on is better than hoping for the best and dreaming this will only go up.



i think the manipulators are basically whale hodlers.. their main aim is to acquire more bitcoin.. they play games along the way to flush out weak hands and acquire more bitcoin as cheaply as they can..

over the years much bitcoin has been sold way too cheaply.. it passes into the hands of the long term hodlers who are the real people getting very rich.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 3, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i think the manipulators are basically whale hodlers.. their main aim is to acquire more bitcoin.. they play games along the way to flush out weak hands and acquire more bitcoin as cheaply as they can..
> 
> over the years much bitcoin has been sold way too cheaply.. it passes into the hands of the long term hodlers who are the real people getting very rich..
> 
> trog


And that is why it needs to die. Too much of it spread across too few people. The whole system is just another example of corruption out of control..


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 3, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> And that it why it needs to die. Too much of it spread across too few people. The whole system is just another example of corruption out of control..


I mean you could make an even stronger arguement like that against the dollar, really.


----------



## Metroid (Oct 3, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i think the manipulators are basically whale hodlers.. their main aim is to acquire more bitcoin.. they play games along the way to flush out weak hands and acquire more bitcoin as cheaply as they can..
> 
> over the years much bitcoin has been sold way too cheaply.. it passes into the hands of the long term hodlers who are the real people getting very rich..
> 
> trog


They always crash crypto 95% when a bull market is done, so they accumulate --> pump and then desacumulate -> dump and then cycle starts again in few years and yeah good cryptocoins will always rise overtime because of limited supply and will always have more money printed in that time than those cryptocoins, period, not saying long term is bad because limited supply is limited supply but short term --> playing the market is 1000x better. However people who buy crypto when they are high and hold long term they will miss a lot of profit and a warning, one day this will likely stop, look at gold, gold has been stagnating for years after hit highs and records, in 1970 gold was 200 usd, in 1980 gold hit a record of 2380 usd, to this day gold stil have not hit its record of 2380 usd that hit in 1980 and gold is also short supply and has many uses. So people need to pay attention here, thinking this will keep going up forever just because its supply is limited.









						Gold Prices - 100 Year Historical Chart
					

Interactive chart of historical data for real (inflation-adjusted) gold prices per ounce back to 1915. The series is deflated using the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the most recent month as the base. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.




					www.macrotrends.net


----------



## ThrashZone (Oct 3, 2021)

Hi,
Deal is if the market doesn't move = make it move mostly insider trading/ manipulation
When the securities and exchange commission is nonexistent there is zero oversight it really does need to be oversight or death of mining and crypto.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 3, 2021)

Metroid said:


> They always crash crypto 95% when a bull market is done, so they accumulate --> pump and then desacumulate -> dump and then cycle starts again in few years and yeah good cryptocoins will always rise overtime because of limited supply and will always have more money printed in that time than those cryptocoins, period, not saying long term is bad because limited supply is limited supply but short term --> playing the market is 1000x better. However people who buy crypto when they are high and hold long term they will miss a lot of profit and a warning, one day this will likely stop, look at gold, gold has been stagnating for years after hit highs and records, in 1970 gold was 200 usd, in 1980 gold hit a record of 2380 usd, to this day gold stil have not hit its record of 2380 usd that hit in 1980 and gold is also short supply and has many uses. So people need to pay attention here, thinking this will keep going up forever just because its supply is limited.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



gold is also massively manipulated and has been for years.. the price is fixed by paper gold.. which just like dollars can be printed as and when they want to.. its been said that for every ounce of real gold there are at least 100 paper ounces.. or to put it another way.. 100 different people would have a claim on the same ounce of gold.. it also said that when this paper gold scam comes to an end.. gold will find its true price which is multiple times higher than what it is now..

the world aint a very honest place.. he he

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 4, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I mean you could make an even stronger arguement like that against the dollar, really.


Not really. You're comparing a form of unregulated number string to a regulated nation currency. Quite a silly statement. But I digress...


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 4, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Not really. You're comparing a form of unregulated number string to a regulated nation currency. Quite a silly statement. But I digress...


And your asking how many of the few hold what percentage units on both (that WAS your criticism of bitcoin above, was it not?).  We both know the answer to that one, you said nothing about the rest.

There are plenty of valid criticisms of bitcoin and this may even be one...  I'm just pointing out the dollar shares this critique.  Mind you, I am by no means excusing it in the dollar anymore than bitcoin, or vice versa.  It's a real issue.

Data:









						Wealth inequality in the United States - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## ThaiTaffy (Oct 4, 2021)

I know it's old news now but reading this thread over the last few days. I've seen Reuters articles and central bank memorandums and nothing is clear be it translation or understanding so I thought I'd post this here from South China morning post which stated that China began their crackdown back on 2013 as @R-T-B said but they have seemed to be wishy washy with it which doesn't sound like China. Also please pay special attention to the wording in certain paragraphs, when they talk about crypto from my take they are banning foreign crypto not all crypto.








						China’s central bank targets offshore crypto exchanges’ ties to mainland
					

The PBOC warned on Friday that anyone involved in providing support to an offshore exchange could come under investigation.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## cvaldes (Oct 4, 2021)

My understanding is that China isn't against cryptocurrencies as a concept, they just don't like cryptocurrencies that are totally decentralized in the same way they hate free market capitalism. Let's face it: cryptocurrencies aren't going away.

China is working on their own cryptocurrency which will be controlled by the CCP, allowing them to benefit from transaction fees, brokerage/exchange fees, price & supply manipulation, etc.

The Chinese government knows they can't control what the rest of the world does but they can control what their own citizens do. As the largest country by population it is worthwhile for the CCP to control crypto behavior of Chinese.


----------



## ThaiTaffy (Oct 4, 2021)

cvaldes said:


> My understanding is that China isn't against cryptocurrencies as a concept, they just don't like cryptocurrencies that are totally decentralized in the same way they hate free market capitalism. Let's face it: cryptocurrencies aren't going away.
> 
> China is working on their own cryptocurrency which will be controlled by the CCP, allowing them to benefit from transaction fees, brokerage/exchange fees, price & supply manipulation, etc.
> 
> The Chinese government knows they can't control what the rest of the world does but they can control what their own citizens do.


Yep I pointed that out in the news thread this was discussed. But alot of that was talking about environmental factors and China finally taking a stance against crypo's massive power demands and effect on climate change. In reality China doesn't give a damn about the climate implications it's just about them loosing money.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 4, 2021)

one for the crypto haters or lovers depending on your viewpoint.. 










trog


----------



## Chomiq (Oct 4, 2021)

trog100 said:


> one for the crypto haters or lovers depending on your viewpoint..
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Jfc this guy is twitchy AF. You expect us to watch this crap?


----------



## the54thvoid (Oct 4, 2021)

Please guys, keep it related to Crypto.  

This is the hardware forum (oddly). If you want to talk Pandora - lounge it out.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 4, 2021)

the54thvoid said:


> Please guys, keep it related to Crypto.
> 
> This is the hardware forum (oddly). If you want to talk Pandora - lounge it out.



i posted it because it comes from a crypto channel.. the pandora element points out that the bad guys are more active in normal finance than they are in crypto.. very apt i thought.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Oct 4, 2021)

well.. bitcoin is now up over 49K and eth at 3400.. eth seems to be lagging a little..

gold is up a little and the stock markets are looking pretty grim.. we will see what tomorrow brings.. 

its all connected.. 

trog


----------



## Rithsom (Oct 5, 2021)

Why is everything climbing so fast? Did another little nation accept Bitcoin as money or something?

There better be a good reason for this. Everyone knows that slow and steady growth is pretty much the most healthy thing. When something booms too rapidly, you know what generally follows...


----------



## trog100 (Oct 5, 2021)

well tomorrow has brought bitcoin up at over 51K and eth at 3500..

gold has dipped a little and the stock markets are back in the green...

by crypto standards this is slow and steady growth.. and its gonna grow much more..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 5, 2021)

Rithsom said:


> When something booms too rapidly, you know what generally follows...


Makes one wonder what is going on behind the scenes..


----------



## Rithsom (Oct 5, 2021)

trog100 said:


> by crypto standards this is slow and steady growth.. and its gonna grow much more.



True. But still, moments of quick growth or decline for crypto are usually associated with real events that take place in the world. Not this time, though. I haven't found any noteworthy event that is tied to the current climb...



lexluthermiester said:


> Makes one wonder what is going on behind the scenes..



Exactly. Collusion by the whales, perhaps?


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 5, 2021)

In ethereum circles the reasoning is the rapid growth report from NFTs, which are reported up 700% in sales quarter to quarter.









						NFT Trading Volume Hit $10.67 Billion in Q3, Up 700% From Previous Quarter - Decrypt
					

Analytics platform Dappradar recorded a year-over-year increase in NFT trading volume of over 38,000%, with August breaking records.




					decrypt.co
				




I have no idea for bitcoin and nonethereum coins...  along for the ride maybe?

And NFTs make no sense to me either, but there is no denying money flows from them.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 5, 2021)

soon fomo will kick in and it really will be up up and away for bitcoin..






						Zerohedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				




trog


----------



## Rithsom (Oct 5, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> In ethereum circles the reasoning is the rapid growth report from NFTs, which are reported up 700% in sales quarter to quarter.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Alright, at least there is something. Seems like a pretty small event to cause such a great confidence boost in crypto, though.

I'm definitely curious to see how long this growth will continue for.


----------



## Deleted member 202104 (Oct 5, 2021)

Is there a market still for non-LHR Nvidia cards?  Asking for a friend.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 5, 2021)

Rithsom said:


> Exactly. Collusion by the whales, perhaps?





R-T-B said:


> along for the ride maybe?


Both possible.


trog100 said:


> soon fomo will kick in and it really will be up up and away for bitcoin..
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting.



weekendgeek said:


> Is there a market still for non-LHR Nvidia cards?  Asking for a friend.


Not by the looks of things. Proof of Stake conversion has begun and will make GPU mining nearly pointless.


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 6, 2021)

weekendgeek said:


> Is there a market still for non-LHR Nvidia cards?  Asking for a friend.


If there is, I'd trade my non LHR 3070 for a similar model 3070 ti.  Just sayin'.  But I doubt there is.

Hey, I know it's hotter and has nearly no performance gain, but I like complete chips.  Won't happen anyways lol.  Proof of stake too soon as some said.


----------



## Deleted member 202104 (Oct 6, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> If there is, I'd trade my non LHR 3070 for a similar model 3070 ti.  Just sayin'.  But I doubt there is.
> 
> Hey, I know it's hotter and has nearly no performance gain, but I like complete chips.  Won't happen anyways lol.  Proof of stake too soon as some said.



I'd do the same, only for a 3080.  Maybe I should check the 'bay...


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 6, 2021)

weekendgeek said:


> I'd do the same, only for a 3080.  Maybe I should check the 'bay...


I doubt you'd get that far because a LHR'd 3080 isn't much worse than a 3070 non LHR.  Unless you mean 3080 -> 3080 TI.  That might work.


----------



## Deleted member 202104 (Oct 6, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> I doubt you'd get that far because a LDR'd 3080 isn't much worse than a 3070 non LHR.  Unless you mean 3080 -> 3080 TI.  That might work.


I'm seeing used versions of my card (same that you have if I remember correctly) selling between 1300-1400.  The hash rate doesn't matter to me, so if I could sell and upgrade to a 3080 or 3080ti that would be kind of nice.

I suppose if GPU mining is coming to an end, the resale value is only going down from here.  Decisions, decisions.


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 6, 2021)

weekendgeek said:


> I'm seeing used versions of my card (same that you have if I remember correctly) selling between 1300-1400.  The hash rate doesn't matter to me, so if I could sell and upgrade to a 3080 or 3080ti that would be kind of nice.
> 
> I suppose if GPU mining is coming to an end, the resale value is only going down from here.  Decisions, decisions.


It's certainly a time for decisions on that front.  Best of luck!

My card has just been gaming but that doesn't mean I don't recognize it's non-LHR appeal.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 6, 2021)

weekendgeek said:


> selling between 1300-1400


GPU prices are going to drop soon, possibly even crash.. Wait to buy for a few months. But I digress, we're getting off-topic here...


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 6, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> GPU prices are going to drop soon, possibly even crash.. Wait to buy for a few months. But I digress, we're getting off-topic here...


Yeah a little, my appologies


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 6, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Yeah a little, my appologies


No worries. It was an honest question related to cryptocoin that deserved an answer.


----------



## DeathtoGnomes (Oct 6, 2021)

trog100 said:


> soon fomo will kick in and it really will be up up and away for bitcoin..
> 
> 
> 
> ...


after reading  this i see that the crypto reference seems added as an afterthought. If rumors are true and they intend to put a significant amount of $$$  into cryptocurrencies, Soros could buy most of them out and shut them down, thats purely a speculation, not like it would really happen.

I'm scared to  speculate this, but what would happen if some 1%'r dropped 10-20 billion just in bitcoin


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 6, 2021)

DeathtoGnomes said:


> I scared to speculate this, but what would happen if some 1%'r dropped 10-20 billion just in bitcoin


A lot of people would make bank before the shutdown.  You have to remember, when they do that, they are buying from the existing holders of the currency.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 6, 2021)

tuesday.. the bitcoin market cap is coming up close to a trillion again but its a very small amount compared to what is tied up in gold or stocks..

as people lose faith in traditional markets some of this money will move into bitcoin.. it wont take much to boost the bitcoin price several fold... i think this is gonna happen and maybe pretty soon..

####

wednesday.. bitcoin is now up over 54K.. the stock markets are looking grim.. i think bitcoin fomo is definitely kicking in.. bitcoins market cap is now over one trillion again ..

gold is down a tad.. eth is at 3500 lagging a bit behind bitcoin but still going up..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 6, 2021)

trog100 said:


> as people lose faith in traditional markets


That's not happening. The the chaotic nature of cryptocoin is not going to instill confidence in anyone. Cryptocoin is still a very niche market. The claims of it being "mainstream" are premature at best and overly optimistic at worst.


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 7, 2021)

As long as it is the currency of choice for drug dealers, terrorists, pirates, or just your random corrupt politian, etc... it will never stop growing. More now that countries are doing more to combat fiscal paradises and the panama papers and now this new whatever papers come out.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 7, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> As long as it is the currency of choice for drug dealers, terrorists, pirates, or just your random corrupt politian, etc... it will never stop growing. More now that countries are doing more to combat fiscal paradises and the panama papers and now this new whatever papers come out.



crooks or not people dont buy bitcoin to spend just like they dont buy gold to spend.. they buy it to accumulate and get rich.. he he

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 8, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> As long as it is the currency of choice for drug dealers, terrorists, pirates, or just your random corrupt politian, etc... it will never stop growing.


You mean the dollar, right?

Organized crime doesn't really mess with Bitcoin anymore.  Too high fees, too tracable. 
They might use Monero or something, but most of the criminal world still uses hard cash.  Way less fees, and just as untracable if done right.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 8, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> You mean the dollar, right?
> 
> Organized crime doesn't really mess with Bitcoin anymore.  Too high fees, too tracable.
> They might use Monero or something, but most of the criminal world still uses hard cash.  Way less fees, and just as untracable if done right.


While there is something to be said about that, outside the USA tracing cryptocoin can be cumbersome at best


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 8, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> While there is something to be said about that, outside the USA tracing cryptocoin can be cumbersome at best


Especially coins like Monero, yeah.  And the big issue is converting traceable bitcoin to nontraceable Monero is easy as pie.

I'm not denying it's a problem, but it's a problem shared with hard cash.


----------



## Liquid Cool (Oct 9, 2021)

If you'll recall at 30k, my target price on BTC was 55k.  We've hit the number and I believe the area above 40k needs to be held or BTC is in serious trouble.  When BTC initially fell to 30k, it is this comparison chart below that gave me the confidence to stand up in the face of opposition to the contrary and state...30k will hold.

It is here at 55k, I'll be taking the same view.

"Back under 40k(on volume) and this market is over...for years."




History may never repeat, but it sure likes to rhyme...

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool


----------



## Outback Bronze (Oct 9, 2021)

Liquid Cool said:


> If you'll recall at 30k, my target price on BTC was 55k.



Lets see how good you are


----------



## Metroid (Oct 9, 2021)

lol, this crash will be so much fun, btc will hit 64k then people will say 100k soon then once btc hits 79k then boom crash overnight to 40k then few weeks later crash again to 9k usd ehhe, that 100k was never hit hehe, you trolls need to be careful here, this is the last pump before hehell, if you have coins then hold only a bit longer and sell, do not wait that 100k because if you do then you will regret it, plus remember this, you will never sell at top and never buy at bottom, so if you have a hunch then sell and dont look back, better miss that money that lose that money.


----------



## freeagent (Oct 9, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Not by the looks of things. Proof of Stake conversion has begun and will make GPU mining nearly pointless.


I know this is an older post but.. I starting watching a video last night while doing the dishes. It was about mining on LHR 3070Ti's.. I didn't finish the video, but by the sounds of it if you mine two coins at once using some program you can negate the LHR effect? I don't know what I am talking about but that was sorta the jist of it.. it was on the to0b of course.. but he seemed to know what he was talking about. Something about from 40 to 80 mega hashes if that makes sense..


----------



## Liquid Cool (Oct 9, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Lets see how good you are



Please feel free to correct me when I'm wrong.  As a former instructor of Technical Analysis...I firmly believe we never stop learning.

,

Liquid Cool


----------



## LFaWolf (Oct 9, 2021)

Liquid Cool said:


> Please feel free to correct me when I'm wrong.  As a former instructor of Technical Analysis...I firmly believe we never stop learning.
> 
> ,
> 
> Liquid Cool


Well, you did much better than me.   I thought Bitcoin would not breach past $50k this year. I am really surprised by the quick run up, but with a quick run up like that, it will usually come back down pretty quick too. Waiting for a buy point this year.


----------



## glsn (Oct 9, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> While there is something to be said about that, outside the USA tracing cryptocoin can be cumbersome at best


there are services that can do the job for you; often government stuff do also use those third parties services

though it can be cleaned (as cash does) by either converting into monero and then doing an anonymous transfer, using gift cards, games and eccetera

cash doesn't look that transparent any way


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 10, 2021)

Metroid said:


> lol, this crash will be so much fun


Where are you looking? I'm not seeing a crash happening, unless I'm missing something?


----------



## Metroid (Oct 10, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Where are you looking? I'm not seeing a crash happening, unless I'm missing something?




Not yet this will go up and up then go down and down hard, my prediction since july 2020 stands at btc 79k then crash back to 9k, I have seen manipulators saying btc will go to 300k and then crash to 50k, I myself dont think btc will even hit 100k,  it will crash before hitting 100k.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 10, 2021)

freeagent said:


> I know this is an older post but.. I starting watching a video last night while doing the dishes. It was about mining on LHR 3070Ti's.. I didn't finish the video, but by the sounds of it if you mine two coins at once using some program you can negate the LHR effect? I don't know what I am talking about but that was sorta the jist of it.. it was on the to0b of course.. but he seemed to know what he was talking about. Something about from 40 to 80 mega hashes *if that makes sense..*


It does and that would be for Proof of Work coins. To avoid being banned and to be more environmentally friendly most if not all coins are converting to Proof of Stake, which makes mining with GPU pointless. That conversion is apparently hitting resistance from miners, but most will have no choice.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 10, 2021)

bitcoin is hitting resistance at 56K.. i see no reason why it should not break this resistance and carry on with its upward trend...

eth is doing the same at 3600.. again i see no reason why after a slight pause it wont carry on with its upward trend..

metroid has his own agenda and is trying to scare people into selling their crypto.. why i havnt a clue.. 

me.. i think the days of this predictable four year cycle have come to an end.. this cycle will carry on for much longer.. but nobody can predict the future so we will have to wait and see..

so far this year i have via nicehash mined about 1/3 of a bitcoin.. this is now worth maybe 18K dollars.. i have spent roughly 12K in dollars on hardware upgrades this is after selling my 1070 cards.. my mining returns are roughly 1400 dollars per month.. i expect this to go up as the price of eth goes up.. this is before the cost of electricity..

i do expect the cost of electricity to go up significantly over the coming months.. i have just bunged 2000 watts of solar panels on my garden shed roof.. these feed 6 x 100 ah lithium batteries.. this is more of a power back up than anything else.. plus i fancied doing it.. he he..

trog


----------



## Liquid Cool (Oct 10, 2021)

Crashes are fun you say?  Would Lynx29's father agree?  My own life was destroyed after attempting to warn people of the crash that was taking place in 2008.  I'm still picking up the pieces...and I assure you my life is not - fun.  Frankly speaking, from my prior experience in life to where I sit today?  It's one step up above a living nightmare.

I'm going to leave this chart of BTC, yes BTC.  If you'll only give it more than a passing glance, no words are necessary.  




Atlhough, to those who wouldn't bother..no words are enough.

With that said, I'll bid you adieu...

Liquid Cool


----------



## trog100 (Oct 11, 2021)

monday.. bitcoin has broken above the 57K level and looks to be on its way higher.. its breaking away from the other alt coins and regaining some of its dominance.. 

eth is hovering around 3600.. the stock markets are flat or in the red and gold is also flat..

bitcoin is looking good..

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Oct 11, 2021)

trog100 said:


> monday.. bitcoin has broken above the 57K level and looks to be on its way higher.. its breaking away from the other alt coins and regaining some of its dominance..
> 
> eth is hovering around 3600.. the stock markets are flat or in the red and gold is also flat..
> 
> ...



I am looking to move one rig over to mining XEQ.  Someone is pumping it up hard right now.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 12, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> I am looking to move one rig over to mining XEQ.  Someone is pumping it up hard right now.



the crypto markets are a bit strange at the moment.. bitcoin is going up and alt coins are going down.. i mine eth via nicehash simply to acquire more bitcoin i dont pay much attention to anything else..

things do seem to be changing.. good or bad i dont know.. nothing is very certain at the moment..

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Oct 12, 2021)

trog100 said:


> the crypto markets are a bit strange at the moment.. bitcoin is going up and alt coins are going down.. i mine eth via nicehash simply to acquire more bitcoin i dont pay much attention to anything else..
> 
> things do seem to be changing.. good or bad i dont know.. nothing is very certain at the moment..
> 
> trog


the kicker is, pools like zergpool you can set up where it will pay you in BTC if you mine whatever coin they offer on their pool.  I looked further into it and its quite good as the only charge is the charge of the network on exchanging XEQ to BTC.  Meaning you will end up getting paid out more as Nicehash takes a lot in terms of fees.

Anyway, something to look at.  It has been bombarded with massive hashrates and still its as profitable as my ETH machine.  Way more profitable than my ERG machine and RVN machine.


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 12, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Not yet this will go up and up then go down and down hard, my prediction since july 2020 stands at btc 79k then crash back to 9k, I have seen manipulators saying btc will go to 300k and then crash to 50k, I myself dont think btc will even hit 100k,  it will crash before hitting 100k.


Cool crystal ball.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 13, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> Cool crystal ball.



i just watched an interview with planB.. a guy who has been correct in the past with his stock to flow model and who now has a million followers talking in terms of 1 to 5 million per bitcoin during the next cycle starting after 2024 the next halving.. growth is exponential..

the interview was taken down by youtube and the (very big) channel shut down.. but its now back up.. they say it was dangerous.. maybe it is.. 

he expects 100 to 134K before this christmas and much higher during the first quarter of 2022.. as crystal balls go this guy does seem to have a reasonable one.. history does  say that after one cycle crash the next one goes at least 20x higher..

gold has a market cap of maybe 10 trillion.. real estate  maybe 100 trillion.. bitcoin 1 trillion.. some of the money in gold and real estate will move into bitcoin.. as it does bitcoin just has to go up.. some things just have to be..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Oct 15, 2021)

friday morning.. bitcoin is now up above 59K and eth up over 3800.. things seem to be moving.. 

new all time highs are looking close..

trog

ps.. late friday afternoon here in the UK not so late in the US.. bitcoin is now up over 61K..

ps..2  10 pm friday night here in the UK  bitcoin is at 62300.. a new all time high is very close.. eth is lagging a bit at 3881..


----------



## Liquid Cool (Oct 15, 2021)

If BTC holds above 60k, I'll consider the pattern I outlined broken.  You can allow for a blowoff into this pocket right here.



Although, if it's done on heavy volume(they're not showing volume today for some reason) or if we head up into new highs.  That's all she wrote for the pattern I mentioned.  Frankly...I expected more resistance.  After testing 55k from the top...and the bottom...the advance is continuing in stellar fashion.   

Someone mentioned above that BTC appeared to be reasserting itself in its leadership role.  That seems a bit of a stretch...feels more like frontrunning the news from the SEC about the futures ETF.  The press release might might make for an interesting reaction.

I'm going to check back in after the announcement and see how this market is fairing.

Until then...I'll mark myself down as being incorrect if we crack this pattern.  

A new high or holding 60k...both will do it.  ETH, same with 4k.  If it cracks/holds 4k there is definitely something else going on here.  In fact...those who were watching at 400 in ETH should be having flashbacks...

Best,

Liquid Cool


----------



## trog100 (Oct 17, 2021)

sunday morning with nothing much happening over the weekend.. 

bitcoin is hovering around 61K with eth around 3900.. sideways consolidation.. the markets are waiting for monday.. 

things should move again come monday..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Oct 19, 2021)

tuesday night here in the UK.. bitcoin is on the way.... its now up over 64K and rising steadily..

eth is lagging a bit at just over 3800..

we will see what tomorrow brings..

wednesday afternoon here in the UK.. bitcoin is up at 66K and eth has caught up a bit at just over 4000..

up up and away maybe.. he he

not much discussion goes on in this forum when crypto is doing well only when it looks bad.. i wonder why.. 

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Oct 20, 2021)

trog100 said:


> tuesday night here in the UK.. bitcoin is on the way.... its now up over 64K and rising steadily..
> 
> eth is lagging a bit at just over 3800..
> 
> ...


Because grand economists like a few here were wrong.

So next time it does take a dip, they will say "I told you so, it's gonna end!" Then when it goes up, they will be silent.

There is no point to this section on this forum.  People on this forum are so toxic on crypto. No point having it here especially when little is done to curb such attitudes.  I know one mod said he planned to do some cleaning but haven't heard from him since.  I don't know why you bother besides to post "he he" and just rub it in which brings the same "respectful" individuals to the thread.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 20, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> Because grand economists like a few here were wrong.
> 
> So next time it does take a dip, they will say "I told you so, it's gonna end!" Then when it goes up, they will be silent.
> 
> There is no point to this section on this forum.  People on this forum are so toxic on crypto. No point having it here especially when little is done to curb such attitudes.  I know one mod said he planned to do some cleaning but haven't heard from him since.  I don't know why you bother besides to post "he he" and just rub it in which brings the same "respectful" individuals to the thread.



i do what the thread is supposed to be about.. report on current prices and trends.. this could be the basis of discussion but as you say its only ever a one way discussion.. 

i was happy with the original thread that got closed down i just carried on doing what i was doing in the old one in this one.. 

i do wonder about this forum being a tech forum why there is so much crypto hate.. just bear in mind if the price goes down i will report on that as well.. crypto markets and trends.. currently the trend is up but there have been times when its been down.. 

am i happy the price is currently going up.. for sure i am.. my crypto stash has gone up by about 20K over the last couple of weeks how could i not be happy.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 20, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> Because grand economists like a few here were wrong.
> 
> So next time it does take a dip, they will say "I told you so, it's gonna end!" Then when it goes up, they will be silent.


Hold that thought..


sepheronx said:


> There is no point to this section on this forum.  People on this forum are so toxic on crypto. No point having it here especially when little is done to curb such attitudes.


What was that about being toxic?


sepheronx said:


> I know one mod said he planned to do some cleaning but haven't heard from him since. I don't know why you bother besides to post "he he" and just rub it in which brings the same "respectful" individuals to the thread.


I'm glad you mentioned the mods, because the condescending and snide remarks like yours need to stop.

Folks, keep it civil and keep it friendly or the mods will be asked to show people out. Thank You.



trog100 said:


> i was happy with the original thread that got closed down i just carried on doing what i was doing in the old one in this one..


And I am fairly certain that discussing past, present or future moderator actions is against forum rules. Rope it in and stay on topic.



trog100 said:


> tuesday night here in the UK.. bitcoin is on the way.... its now up over 64K and rising steadily..


This morning has been interesting. There are a number of people that didn't see this upward trend coming. It looked like it was going sideways and was going to stay like that for a while.


----------



## sepheronx (Oct 20, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> Hold that thought..
> 
> What was that about being toxic?
> 
> ...


I think only remarks you ever provide here is of nothing beneficial and bad too.  So my remarks are in kind to people such as yourself, solid state, Metroid and alike.  Maybe I can go on but no point.  What I said isn't toxic. It was pointing out the obvious. Toxic is people telling others they should "leave" because opinion is different, or that crypto miners are evil and what not which we get daily 

You seem to make enemies with nearly everyone here, so I'll put you on ignore again.


----------



## freeagent (Oct 20, 2021)

Be nice to each other guys, we all share this space together.. if you don’t have anything nice or informational to say, be like me and just keep it zipped  

Can you tell I am Canadian yet? Trying to be nice, polite, and serious at the same time 

Seriously, no need to be rude to each other


----------



## Outback Bronze (Oct 20, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Looks like a decent gain across the board from the yearly lows. I'm wondering if its set to go  past the ATH? It's looking like it personally.



BTC just breached its ATH. Called it back in Aug 7/21 post #274.

Wil be interesting to see if this hits 100K before Xmas.


----------



## sepheronx (Oct 21, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> BTC just breached its ATH. Called it back in Aug 7/21 post #274.
> 
> Wil be interesting to see if this hits 100K before Xmas.



ETH broke over $5K CAD here.  To be exact, $5199.

Most coins are doing well, at least heavily marketed ones.

While ERGO got hit hard because of very poor communication skills between the ERGO team and the dAPP creator team making ErgoDex.  Then the developer had to clarify that it is a lot like Uniswap is to ETH on what ErgoDex is to Ergo.  It lowered prices from $11 USD to $8USD but got it back up after clarification it is hovering around $10 USD.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 21, 2021)

thursday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin is at 66K and after a brief dip down to 64K is on the way back up.. eth is rising faster at 4219..

the stock markets are flat and gold is up a little.. 

trog


----------



## ixi (Oct 21, 2021)

Can't wait for eth to reach 20 or 30k then I'll sell them.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 21, 2021)

ixi said:


> Can't wait for eth to reach 20 or 30k then I'll sell them.



i wonder how much eth gpu mining will generate if eth gets to 10K or 20K... 

i have strong feeling that the eth proof of stake merge will somehow get delayed.. he..he..

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Oct 21, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i wonder how much eth gpu mining will generate if eth gets to 10K or 20K...
> 
> i have strong feeling that the eth proof of stake merge will somehow get delayed.. he..he..
> 
> trog



Well, it has been delayed already, we still got roughly 8 more months or so of mining ETH.

I am switching my ERGO machine over to ETH by at least the weekend (I gotta replace thermalpads on two Zotac's as they are trash) in order to increase my earnings in it.  I may switch all rigs over.  But RVN halving in January may prevent me from wanting to switch all rigs over...


----------



## trog100 (Oct 21, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> Well, it has been delayed already, we still got roughly 8 more months or so of mining ETH.
> 
> I am switching my ERGO machine over to ETH by at least the weekend (I gotta replace thermalpads on two Zotac's as they are trash) in order to increase my earnings in it.  I may switch all rigs over.  But RVN halving in January may prevent me from wanting to switch all rigs over...



if eth really does start to go up so will the price of GPUs.. the whole thing will be limited  only by the availability of suitable hardware to mine with..

interesting times..

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Oct 21, 2021)

trog100 said:


> if eth really does start to go up so will the price of GPUs.. the whole thing will be limited  only by the availability of suitable hardware to mine with..
> 
> interesting times..
> 
> trog


As a note, which I Am looking at - Nvidia RTX A2000 will get you ~30MHs at about 80W if you can find one.  RTX A4000 will get you about 60MHs.


----------



## TheHunter (Oct 21, 2021)

Hi,

What about pi?

Any news when it will actually be worth something. Some friend said apparently it will be 5$. I have 1200 now.. but kind of doubt it,I would be ok with 2$ too, would buy a new gpu with that, this 980ti is very old in the tooth xD


----------



## trog100 (Oct 22, 2021)

bitcoin is at 63K and currently going sideways.. eth is at 4.1K and doing the same.. 

the rapid upwards momentum seems to have paused.. at least for a while..

trog


----------



## Metroid (Oct 22, 2021)

Do not be surprised about btc price rising, is normal at this time, manipulators are following a pattern here and will keep for sometime yet, top and the hehell crash is closer and closer, my prediction still stands since july 2020, btc top will be around 79k - 89k and then crash below 10k and then rebound to 15k and stay there for next 3 to 5 years.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 22, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Do not be surprised about btc price rising, is normal at this time, manipulators are following a pattern here and will keep for sometime yet, top and the hehell crash is closer and closer, my prediction still stands since july 2020, btc top will be around 79k - 89k and then crash below 10k and then rebound to 15k and stay there for next 3 to 5 years.



so when it crashes from 89K down to 15K we just sit on it for 4 years and it will be back up 20x and at 300K does this sound about right to you.. ??

then of course the next time it crashes from 300K down to 50K we repeat the process.. sit on it for 4 years and watch it get up to 20x 50K which would be one million..

i dont think this will happen i think we are gonna reach the 1 million a bit sooner than 8 years but if it did happen it it still seems like a pretty good long term investment to me.. he he..

the logic behind "sell your bitcoin cos its gonna crash" seems to bit flawed to me.. 

trog

ps.. of course the real way to get very rich would be to buy a good crystal ball.. sell at the cycle peak.. sit on the profits until the next cycle low and buy back in.. i do wish i had done this the last time around.. he he..


----------



## Vayra86 (Oct 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> ps.. of course the real way to get very rich would be to buy a good crystal ball.. sell at the cycle peak.. sit on the profits until the next cycle low and buy back in.. i do wish i had done this the last time around.. he he..



Yeah, about those crystal balls, I threw mine in the trash a few months back. Doubt is a healthy thing, I've learned.  One day at a time seems like a good stance nowadays.



Metroid said:


> Do not be surprised about btc price rising, is normal at this time, manipulators are following a pattern here and will keep for sometime yet, top and the hehell crash is closer and closer, my prediction still stands since july 2020, btc top will be around 79k - 89k and then crash below 10k and then rebound to 15k and stay there for next 3 to 5 years.



Well, you've changed your numbers with every other post so I'm sure SOME part of the predictions might even stick somewhere before 2100. Good job! Can you send me one of those six dozen crystal balls you have there? Mine is gone.



trog100 said:


> the logic behind "sell your bitcoin cos its gonna crash" seems to bit flawed to me..


There is no logic in gambling.


----------



## Metroid (Oct 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> so when it crashes from 89K down to 15K we just sit on it for 4 years and it will be back up 20x and at 300K does this sound about right to you.. ??
> 
> then of course the next time it crashes from 300K down to 50K we repeat the process.. sit on it for 4 years and watch it get up to 20x 50K which would be one million..
> 
> ...



BTC is still limited, not sure if it will change or not but as far back as 2009 to this date still capped at 21 million. So as everything in life, limited products keep the value or increase in fiat value because more and more fiat currency is printed every time they need. As every crypto cycle follows a manipulative pattern since 2010, it rises too much and crashes too much and this time will be no different, but every time btc's price keep a lot more valued than it was hence what I said "limited",  my point is, since 2011, btc has increased a lot and then always crashed 80% to 99%. So regardless how much btc rises this time around, expect a 80 to 99% crash. Also when I say crypto is the wild west market simply means manipulation, why crypto always crash 80 to 99%? why doesn't it keep the value? why it rises too much? why it crashes too much? That is all about manipulation, pay attention, you can earn a lot of money or lose a lot of money and in the end crypto is still speculative, it can die anytime, look at china, how many times btc has been banned in china and every time the government is taking larger actions than before. This is the first time they ban mining in china of larger companies, next time who knows what will happen.

I always say to people to buy and sell, hold long term is bad because you can earn thousands times more if you buy and sell, nothing against people holding long term, they will be winning as long as the project keep its 2009 idea intact but not as much as the people who buy and sell.



Vayra86 said:


> Well, you've changed your numbers with every other post so I'm sure SOME part of the predictions might even stick somewhere before 2100. Good job! Can you send me one of those six dozen crystal balls you have there? Mine is gone.



No, I did not, I have posts stating about it, just check my previous posts in this thread. I always said the 100k bs will not hit this time, sheeps think it will go to 200k or 300k. I just dont think manipulators will take btc to more than 79 - 89k this time, the 100k mindset is a trap for this cycle around.


----------



## Vayra86 (Oct 22, 2021)

Metroid said:


> BTC is still limited, not sure if it will change or not but as far back as 2009 to this date still capped at 21 million. So as everything in life, limited products keep the value or increase in fiat value because more and more fiat currency is printed every time they need. As every crypto cycle follows a manipulative pattern since 2010, it rises too much and crashes too much and this time will be no different, but every time btc's price keep a lot more valued than it was hence what I said "limited",  my point is, since 2011, btc has increased a lot and then always crashed 80% to 99%. So regardless how much btc rises this time around, expect a 80 to 99% crash. Also when I say crypto is the wild west market simply means manipulation, why crypto always crash 80 to 99%? why doesn't it keep the value? why it rises too much? why it crashes too much? That is all about manipulation, pay attention, you can earn a lot of money or lose a lot of money and in the end crypto is still speculative, it can die anytime, look at china, how many times btc has t been banned in china and every time the government is taking larger actions than before. This is the first time they ban mining in china of larger companies, next time who knows what will happen.
> 
> I always say to people to buy and sell, hold long term is bad because you can earn thousands times more if you buy and sell, nothing against people holding long term, they will be winning as long as the project keep its 2009 idea intact but not as much as the people who buy and sell.
> 
> ...



The reason it fluctuates is because the coins are not tied to the real economy in any sensible way. The only ties that exist, exist in people's heads and the far and few places where you can actually use it to pay for things - even though nobody in their right mind ever would, because you could have lost a fortune tomorrow. The name you attribute to that... criminal networks, china farms, manipulating whales... is irrelevant. The core of this whole project is the fact crypto is floating on an idea, not on a direct tie with the real economy, with real people, real companies producing real goods requiring real resources. Those real things usually correct the market proper and in crypto they are absent. But those dreams and ideas can reach any high or low the collective wants.

Its gambling. The pattern you've seen for 10 years can end tomorrow.


----------



## Metroid (Oct 22, 2021)

Vayra86 said:


> Its gambling. The pattern you've seen for 10 years can end tomorrow.


Yes, it can die anytime.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin is at 63K and currently going sideways.. eth is at 4.1K and doing the same..
> 
> the rapid upwards momentum seems to have paused.. at least for a while..


BTC came down a bit before leveling off, Eth has been more or less holding steady. Very strange..


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Oct 22, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> BTC came down a bit before leveling off, Eth has been more or less holding steady. Very strange..



What's the threshold for a holding value to become strange (not a rhetorical question)?  LC and RF have posted some charts showing trends and patterns, but it still seems to me that the only thing predictable about BTC/ETH values is that they're unpredictable, in a rather literal sense.  Especially over a timescale of hours, days, or even weeks.


----------



## Metroid (Oct 22, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> BTC came down a bit before leveling off, Eth has been more or less holding steady. Very strange..



It's not, eth has a fork coming up next week. So reason eth is rising with btc, usually yes, eth crashes or stays the same when btc is going up.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 22, 2021)

bitcoin and eth have come down some more.. bitcoin now at 60K with eth just below  4K..

not quite what people expected but it will either go back up or go down lower.. if it goes lower some panic selling may occur and it may go down to 55K or so.. 

i think it will hold at 60K but i could be wrong nothing is certain.. 

trog


----------



## R0H1T (Oct 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> so when it crashes from 89K down to 15K we just sit on it for 4 years and it will be back up 20x


That cycle/span has considerably shortened in part because actual billionaires are pumping money into crypto as well as banks(?) ETF, possibly some govt as well. Not to mention in the allure of making a quick buck pretty much anyone who has some knowledge of crypto tries to dip their toe in this miasma. Don't be surprised if some of the (lesser known) coins go up 1000x in mere days & tank 1000x almost immediately thereafter.

The issue with BTC or ETH is slightly different, now their upside is mostly capped, I mean those mega booms or bust & that is because the wealthiest & most powerful have taken a really keen interest in them. And everyone knows you don't mess with the rich, unless you have *dragons*


----------



## Metroid (Oct 22, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin and eth have come down some more.. bitcoin now at 60K with eth just below  4K..
> 
> not quite what people expected but it will either go back up or go down lower.. if it goes lower some panic selling may occur and it may go down to 55K or so..
> 
> ...



Well the manipulators have done the objective of getting through 64.8k which was the previous ath, that means now it will crash a bit then back up and start going up again, however it will be a time where it will not be going up again and sheeps will think it will and that is when they will lose as btc will crumble and crumble even more and that will be the start of "hehell crash", yeah I dont see btc going lower than 55k right now and then sideways till manipulators restart again the price rise, the question now is when will it crash hard, december or january?, in 2013 it was december, in 2018 was january, manipulators need to rise this fast because many smart investors are going to be soon selling all their accumulated coins past 2 years and that is a lot, usually manipulators decide the top and then crash the market 40% in few minutes.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 22, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Well the manipulators have done the objective of getting through 64.8k which was the previous ath, that means now it will crash a bit then back up and start going up again, however it will be a time where it will not be going up again and sheeps will think it will and that is when they will lose as btc will crumble and crumble even more and that will be the start of "hehell crash", yeah I dont see btc going lower than 55k right now and then sideways till manipulators restart again the price rise, the question now is when will it crash hard, december or january?, in 2013 it was december, in 2018 was january, manipulators need to rise this fast because many smart investors are going to be soon selling all their accumulated coins past 2 years and that is a lot, usually manipulators decide the top and then crash the market 40% in few minutes.



i dont think the past cycles will repeat.. this cycle will be much longer and the downside if any will be less dramatic.. but that is just what i think and i could well be wrong.. 

trog


----------



## glsn (Oct 24, 2021)

(ue) some sort of bank/trading platform that provides apis without costs?

there's kraken, but then I need to charge the account via bank transfer

while stuff like revolut, does provide a cryptos section but doesn't provide apis for it


----------



## trog100 (Oct 24, 2021)

sunday morning here in the UK.. things are basically going sideways at the moment with bitcoin hovering around 61K and eth at 4.1K.. not a lot happening at the moment..

some kind of move is expected.. most likely to the upside but it could go down a bit more first..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Oct 26, 2021)

tuesday morning with things still going sideways and not much happening... bitcoin at around 63K and eth at 4.2K.. 

i "think" some more sideways movement may be on the cards followed by a move up..  i dont see a move down happening.. 

trog


----------



## Dromze (Oct 28, 2021)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin is at 63K and currently going sideways.. eth is at 4.1K and doing the same..
> 
> the rapid upwards momentum seems to have paused.. at least for a while..
> 
> trog


The growth trend of Bitcoin and Ether will continue until December, that's for sure.


----------



## Asylum (Oct 31, 2021)

I have been watching AMP for a little while now and it may be about to have a run.

Just a FYI if you are interested.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 1, 2021)

its gone very quite in here  .. things are still going sideways with bitcoin around 62K and eth around 4.3K... it worth noting that both gained about 30% during the month of october..

i expect a move to the upside soon..  sideways is boring..

trog

ps.. tuesday morning sees a little kick upwards to 63K and 4.4K.. not a lot but at least up aint down..


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Nov 1, 2021)

trog100 said:


> its gone very quite in here  .. things are still going sideways with bitcoin around 62K and eth around 4.3K... it worth noting that both gained about 30% during the month of october..
> 
> i expect a move to the upside soon..  sideways is boring..
> 
> trog



It's possible.  I'm getting served a lot of crypto-related ads on YT.  That can mean that people still think there's growth potential, or they're trying to squeeze some money out of the market because they suspect a downturn.  Unsurprisingly, that still boils down to, "We don't effin' know".  At least I sure don't.


----------



## cvaldes (Nov 1, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> It's possible.  I'm getting served a lot of crypto-related ads on YT.  That can mean that people still think there's growth potential, or they're trying to squeeze some money out of the market because they suspect a downturn.  Unsurprisingly, that still boils down to, "We don't effin' know".  At least I sure don't.


No one can accurately predict the future 100% of the time. Anyone who says they can is wrong.

No one has a crystal ball.

Cryptocurrency exchanges are no exceptions.

However, they want more transactions because they generate fees. They ultimately don't care if any given cryptocurrency goes up or down on any given day. They just want a bunch of people to buy and sell the cryptocurrency; they want active traders. They would rather have someone who buys and sells crypto 10-20 times a year rather than someone who buys once and forgets about the wallet for five years.

Same thing with mining exchanges. They just want people to mine, they don't really care about whether BTC or ETH went up 1.79% or down 0.93% in the past 24 hours. Again it's mining fees that they are interested in. No miners = no fees.

In the same way, the Apple Card that has sat unused in my desk drawer for the past two years doesn't generate MasterCard any merchant transaction fees (nor does it generate any interest for Goldman Sachs).


----------



## Chomiq (Nov 2, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> It's possible.  I'm getting served a lot of crypto-related ads on YT.  That can mean that people still think there's growth potential, or they're trying to squeeze some money out of the market because they suspect a downturn.  Unsurprisingly, that still boils down to, "We don't effin' know".  At least I sure don't.


Or Google is simply profiling you based on your search history.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Nov 2, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> Or Google is simply profiling you based on your search history.



Yeah, could be.  My watch history is pretty tech-heavy.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 3, 2021)

wednesday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin still hovering around 63K but eth seems to be on a run.. its now at 4.6K and appears to be still moving up.. 

trog


----------



## dorsetknob (Nov 3, 2021)

Turns out the squid coin (what ever its called )  was a pump and Dump Scam
Many got ripped off. despite warnings and notable signs

Cause and effect this is why Ecoins have a bad rep sorry to say but Some form of Regulation is needed to weed out the potential rouge actors


----------



## trog100 (Nov 3, 2021)

dorsetknob said:


> Turns out the squid coin (what ever its called )  was a pump and Dump Scam
> Many got ripped off. despite warnings and notable signs
> 
> Cause and effect this is why Ecoins have a bad rep sorry to say but Some form of Regulation is needed to weed out the potential rouge actors



maybe people who dabble in get rich quick shitcoin schemes should do their own due diligence.. lets be real here.. its hard to protect greedy idiots.. i dont have much sympathy for them.. 

there is crypto and there is crypto.. dont gamble what you cant afford to lose.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 3, 2021)

dorsetknob said:


> Turns out the squid coin (what ever its called ) was a pump and Dump Scam


What a shock right? I thought Olympus was going to be a pump & dump but it seems to be holding on and gaining value.


trog100 said:


> dont gamble what you cant afford to lose..


TRUTH!


----------



## trog100 (Nov 6, 2021)

saturday morning and bitcoin and eth seem to be taking a small dive.. 60k and 4.3K are the critical levels they need to hold at at else they might head lower..

i still think long term the trend is up but short term it may go down a bit more first..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 6, 2021)

trog100 said:


> 60k and 4.3K are the critical levels they need to hold at at else they might head lower..


Yeah, they've been doing the rollercoaster thing, but only in minor up & downs. Mostly going sideways. It just continues to be weird. Or is it just me?


----------



## purecain (Nov 6, 2021)

I find it very interesting how I recieve google ads and info telling me to sell or not to invest in ETH right before it goes up in value and tells me to buy it , just before it takes a dive.
I follow the markets and try to use my own judgement and that seems to be working for me at least.  I dont have any Bit Coin. Although i will start to purchase a little at a time as and when it dips in price, sell on its upturn and rinse and repeat. The fees are something I'm unsure of atm.


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 6, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> Or Google is simply profiling you based on your search history.


I miss back in the early bitcoin mining days when Google would serve me ads for "Jobs in the Coal Industry...."


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 6, 2021)

purecain said:


> The fees are something I'm unsure of atm.


I think CoinBase fees are something in the area of 5% per transaction. Not 100% on that as they don't publicly declare their fee schedules.


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 6, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> I think CoinBase fees are something in the area of 5% per transaction. Not 100% on that as they don't publicly declare their fee schedules.


For trading, you are correct, there is no disclosure (they are supposedly feeless, but not really).  I think it's closer to 2.5% from my estimations, but there certainly is a fee.

Also when you cash out to cash, they charge a static $1.99 or so to do that.


----------



## purecain (Nov 6, 2021)

@lexluthermiester & R-T-B Thanks for the head up.   
​


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 7, 2021)

R-T-B said:


> For trading, you are correct, there is no disclosure (they are supposedly feeless, but not really).  I think it's closer to 2.5% from my estimations, but there certainly is a fee.
> 
> Also when you cash out to cash, they charge a static $1.99 or so to do that.


Did not know that. Good to know.



purecain said:


> @lexluthermiester & R-T-B Thanks for the head up.
> ​


You can always create an account and then look it up as I'm sure that is info they give to members.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 7, 2021)

sunday morning and both bitcoin and eth have held the critical levels and ticked upwards slightly back to where they were...

later today or tomorrow  i expect a noticeable  upwards movement.. this sideways sh-t cant go on forever... he he..

trog

ps.. the big players always try and drive the price down before they grab a chunk more.. the fact they only managed a measly 1K or so this time shows how strong the buying pressure really is.. there aint many weak hands left to sell..

ps..2..  a hint to purecain.. bitcoin is not the thing to be buying and selling.. its the thing to buy and hold.. more volatile alt coins are better for buying and selling..

ps..3..  early hours of monday morning here in the UK still sunday in the US.. its up up and away.. bitcoin at 65K and eth at 4.7K.. 

the wales have started feeding.. he he..


----------



## phill (Nov 8, 2021)

Been keeping an eye of late, seems to be getting interesting     Holding about the 4.7k mark for Eth at the moment....  I see XRP getting a little boost as well...   Here's hoping!!


----------



## trog100 (Nov 9, 2021)

tuesday morning.. bitcoin now at 68K with eth at 4.8K.. still on a nice steady rise.. the daddy coins seem to have lost a lot of their volatility..

litecoin is the one i want to see go up... so far its lagged behind the other older coins.. i have no idea why.. actually looking at it its up near 20% on the day so it might be making a move.. i hope so..

trog

ps.. litecoin is definitely on the move.. if it does the same as it did back in 2017 its looking at a 600% increase between now and the end of the year.. purely my own thoughts on this but i think wale manipulation has held litecoin back.. if i am right its now time to buy some litecoin.. wale accumulation will jack the price up massively..

ps.. 2..  mid afternoon in the UK.. bitcoin and eth have leveled off but litecoin has broken away and is for sure doing its own thing.. now up 23% on the day.. the thing to buy but be quick dont hang about..


----------



## trog100 (Nov 11, 2021)

thursday morning.. an unexpected dump.. i think this one caught everyone by surprise.. he he

bitcoin now at 65K with eth at 4.6K.. not a lot but enough to cause some panic.. i dont think it will go lower but one never knows.. 

gold is going higher which is always a sign of fear in the markets.. 

trog


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Nov 13, 2021)

I would invest in the certainty that no investment is certain. Even precious metals have their own uncertainty. Of course, if things get that bad, I'm sure major food shortages are prevalent, in which case, guns & bullets become the new currency and acquisition BAMN(by any means necesary) replaces law.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 14, 2021)

sunday morning with bitcoin at 64K and eth at 4.5K... we seem to be back in the sideways mode.. 

trog


----------



## freeagent (Nov 14, 2021)

What are your thoughts on CPU mining? I saw a video the other day that may have gotten me a little interested..


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 14, 2021)

I thought CPU mining was mostly dead?


----------



## Chomiq (Nov 15, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> I thought CPU mining was mostly dead?


I don't really see it as profitable with $1.something per day, yet somehow it is making a comeback.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 16, 2021)

tuesday morning.. crypto is taking a dive.. bitcoin now down at 59K with eth 4.2K..

gold is climbing and the stock markets are flat..

what happens next is anybodies guess...

trog


----------



## silentbogo (Nov 16, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> I thought CPU mining was mostly dead?


It was and still is, but mass media likes sensationalist articles about kids becoming millionaires )))
Some new crypto popped up(which might as well die after today's crash). Once again, poses itself as ASIC-resistant blah-blah-blah, and uses lots of cache(hence likes Zen CPUs).
Essentially everyone is chasing the next SHIB amongst unlisted coins.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 16, 2021)

Crypto is very weird and unpredictable, but anyways here goes my theories

-Covid is back, some countries already in some kind of lockdown

-Asia is in deep shit, yep, not just China. 
SK see here 







. 
In India there's major power outages and gigantic polution problems see here 







 and here 








-Major problems with labour shortages, supply chain problems, prices of containers sky rocketed

-Inflation problems, especially in the US

-Interest rates are still to low to make putting money in the bank an alternative

-Oil prices and supply issues. Oil is rising, major problems with gas prices in Europe, China and India fighting for gas to replace coal and their brown air problem

so i think crypto will rise, just like gold or silver for example. But you have to be carefull with crypto, every so often there's a major sell off to cash in. I would say we are going in to a major recession. Then again maybe not, it's a weird unpredictable market.


----------



## sepheronx (Nov 16, 2021)

Crypto market is taking a bit of a dump. But like always, it will be a dump then a climb to higher levels than before.


----------



## Chomiq (Nov 16, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> In India there's major power outages and gigantic polution problems see here
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's mainly because they are opening up and industry is accelerating. That's why worldwide we see CO2 emissions increase to 2019 levels.


----------



## freeagent (Nov 16, 2021)

To me it’s not a big deal, I saw a couple of videos that got the gears turning. I momentarily thought hmm.. but between power, and taxes.. not really worth it to me.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 16, 2021)

if anybody is following this please warns to buy the dip


----------



## Vya Domus (Nov 16, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> so i think crypto will rise, just like gold or silver for example.



I see this argument being thrown around very often as of late and it's baffling. A real world wide recession would be catastrophic to crypto, all retail involvement would vanish. The only reason crypto is doing so well is because people still have disposable income, if you lose your job or get a dramatic pay cut buying crypto is going to be the last thing on your list. 

That being said I do not think we're heading into a major recession, I am just point out that this logic is horrific and it will bring you to ruin if you follow through in the event of this scenario playing out.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 16, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> I see this argument being thrown around very often as of late and it's baffling. A real world wide recession would be catastrophic to crypto, all retail involvement would vanish. The only reason crypto is doing so well is because people still have disposable income, if you lose your job or get a dramatic pay cut buying crypto is going to be the last thing on your list.
> 
> That being said I do not think we're heading into a major recession, I am just point out that this logic is horrific and it will bring you to ruin if you follow through in the event of this scenario playing out.



When things get bad people turn to gold or silver because it retains it's own value even if the economy goes down the drain. Crypto value is not tied to the economy as you can easily see.
Whenever there's a recession there's always people with money, people that want to use that money. A Recession is the mother of all dips, if you are lucky to have a job or money during a recession, it's the best time to get rich. Buying houses for a fraction of their value for example is very popular in my country


----------



## silentbogo (Nov 16, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> I see this argument being thrown around very often as of late and it's baffling. A real world wide recession would be catastrophic to crypto, all retail involvement would vanish.


Exactly. Over time crypto have evolved from "potential cash replacement" to an equivalent of stock market (and became just as confusing). 
And we all know how well does stock market during recession.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 16, 2021)

silentbogo said:


> Exactly. Over time crypto have evolved from "potential cash replacement" to an equivalent of stock market (and became just as confusing).
> And we all know how well does stock market during recession.



there's no earnings reports for crypto, they fell when people want to cash in and rise when they thing it's too low, i can't see the comparison working.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Nov 16, 2021)

trog100 said:


> later in the day.. bitcoin is down 8% and eth down 10%.. lets see how low it will go..
> 
> will it break 30K.. i dont think so but it may..
> 
> trog



I don't know if you or anyone else caught this, @trog100 , but you were technically wrong on this prediction back in June (it did go below 30K, albeit a month later), but functionally right (bottomed out _just_ below):






Well played.  What's your call on the current slide?


----------



## sepheronx (Nov 16, 2021)

Hmm, should have sold the ETH I currently have in my exchange.  At least I would have currency to then buyback at the lows.


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Nov 16, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> When things get bad people turn to gold or silver because it retains it's own value even if the economy goes down the drain. Crypto value is not tied to the economy as you can easily see.
> Whenever there's a recession there's always people with money, people that want to use that money. A Recession is the mother of all dips, if you are lucky to have a job or money during a recession, it's the best time to get rich. Buying houses for a fraction of their value for example is very popular in my country


If things get that bad where people need to turn to precious metals as reliable barter, its game over and would basically be a major wealth redistribution. Given how economies are so intertwined today, if something like that happens, I suspect that it will actually become illegal to hoard or have precious metals for the purpose of bartering since governments around the world will need to confiscate it and use it as a form of backing for some kind of electronic common currency. 
Another thing I should point out, you can't eat metal, so having a room full of silver/gold/platinum/palladium bricks only works if there are others who need it more than food.


----------



## Vya Domus (Nov 16, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> if you are lucky to have a job or money during a recession



It's probably one of the worst times. Again, most people are going to struggle to get by, even if they have a job. It's only those that already had a lot of capital before the recession that can really profit from it, your average guy will get hit mega hard and will end up even poorer by the time it's over.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 16, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> It's probably one of the worst times. Again, most people are going to struggle to get by, even if they have a job. It's only those that already had a lot of capital before the recession that can really profit from it, your average guy will get hit mega hard and will end up even poorer by the time it's over.



That's fair and i'm not saying otherwise. But even in a recesion you have people that keep their income (examples: retirees, public employees, good companies or just a lucky person that keeps their job) and things get cheaper.
And the big changes in value for things like crypto aren't done by your average Joe buying a couple dollars worth of it. Large funds like sovereign funds, pension funds, random rich people, etc...


----------



## trog100 (Nov 16, 2021)

80-watt Hamster said:


> I don't know if you or anyone else caught this, @trog100 , but you were technically wrong on this prediction back in June (it did go below 30K, albeit a month later), but functionally right (bottomed out _just_ below):
> 
> View attachment 225413
> 
> Well played.  What's your call on the current slide?



similar but at 60K instead of 30K.. things have just moved up gear.. brief dips slightly below these figures i dont count.. the round figure is the real figure.. its human psychology at work.. 

i think its deliberate manipulation to flush out over leveraged longs and stop traders getting over confident..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Nov 18, 2021)

thursday evening here in the UK.. bitcoin now at 58K with eth at 4K.. 

58K may be the bottom but it could go a bit lower.. its hard to say..

it gone lower than i expected it to but i still think its ready to shoot higher and soon.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 18, 2021)

I would not have predicted the dip this week. Weird.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 18, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> I would not have predicted the dip this week. Weird.



what do you mean by that? did you knew something?

anyway still falling


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 19, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> what do you mean by that?


Exactly what I stated.


Bomby569 said:


> did you knew something?


No. Otherwise I would have predicted better.


----------



## R0H1T (Nov 19, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> In India there's* major power outages* and *gigantic polution problems* see here


That's greatly exaggerated, we've never had reliable power to begin with.

Yes been this way for at least 20 years now, but with more cars & electricity consumption it's only gotten worse!


----------



## trog100 (Nov 19, 2021)

friday morning.. i could be a bit premature here but i think the bottom was in at 56K and the shake-out is over.. bitcoin now at 57K with eth at 4.1K..

if my thinking is correct i expect a powerful upward swing to kick in soon..

the wales have rattled the tree enough and can now start buying.. he he..

trog


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 19, 2021)

is this the dip?


----------



## sepheronx (Nov 19, 2021)

My CRO made massive gains. I bought into it at 0.19 CAD now it's at 0.60~ CAD. Sold some at $0.70.

It was because they bought a stadium.


----------



## Metroid (Nov 19, 2021)

I still have my btc target since December last year of 79k - 89k for top then crash back to 9.6 to fill that famous cme gap. This is just a shakeoff, it cant be helped anyway, btc is too overbought, so any bad news will create this volatility, anyway, manipulators will take btc up one last time and then crash to hehell.


----------



## sepheronx (Nov 19, 2021)

Metroid said:


> I still have my btc target since December last year of 79k - 89k for top then crash back to 9.6 to fill that famous cme gap. This is just a shakeoff, it cant be helped anyway, btc is too overbought, so any bad news will create this volatility, anyway, manipulators will take btc up one last time and then crash to hehell.


you been wrong on every other belief you showed.  So why should we believe this one?


----------



## Vya Domus (Nov 19, 2021)

Metroid said:


> I still have my btc target since December last year of 79k - 89k for top then crash back to 9.6



What ? 9.6 K ?


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 19, 2021)

I don't think a drop like that will ever happen, the concept is good and solid, the security increased a lot, and it's perfect for money laundering, your random dictator or corrupt politician


----------



## Metroid (Nov 19, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> What ? 9.6 K ?


More here https://bitcoinist.com/heres-why-bitcoin-might-not-dip-to-9600-to-fill-the-cme-gap/ , That cme gap was never filled, trolls were saying last year it would hit, I said it would not hit till it had gone to 79 - 89k then crash back down to fill that gap. So far I have been right, it never crashed to 9.6k to this date, my point I made at that time, that was a beartrap mentality and I was right. I already sold 80% what I had, still with 20% and waiting for btc to go a little bit higher then will sell the last bit I have. I will not make the same mistake I made in 2013 and 2018 of not selling the last 20% I had, this time I will sell it all I have.

Anyway, aside from that beartrap mentality that I was right, manipulators have gone with this bulltrap mentality that btc will hit 100k this cycle and I said it will not, will be close to 100k then crash very hard to fill that cme gap of 9.6k and stabilize around 15k -20k then next cycle it will hit 100k. Manipulators want to put this bulltrap mentality that btc will hit 100k this cycle and to make things even worse they are saying 300k hehe, they need people to think that, that is how they manipulate the market, so manipulators can sell the top they want to, I mean they are sure sheeps will not sell at 89k because sheeps will be waiting for 300k hehe then they sell everything they accumulated these past 2 years at 89k and then btc crashes to 20k and then sheeps afraid sell around 20k and btc flash crash to 5k or so and then manipulators buy that btc at that price and hold.


----------



## Vya Domus (Nov 19, 2021)

Metroid said:


> More here https://bitcoinist.com/heres-why-bitcoin-might-not-dip-to-9600-to-fill-the-cme-gap/ , That cme gap was never filled, trolls were saying last year it would hit, I said it would not hit till it had gone to 79 - 89k then crash back down to fill that gap. So far I have been right, it never crashed to 9.6k to this date, my point I made at that time, that was a beartrap mentality and I was right. I already sold 80% what I had, still with 20% and waiting for btc to go a little bit higher then will sell the last bit I have. I will not make the same mistake I made in 2013 and 2018 of not selling the last 20% I had, this time I will sell it all I have.
> 
> Anyway, aside from that beartrap mentality that I was right, manipulators have gone with this bulltrap mentality that btc will hit 100k this cycle and I said it will not, will be close to 100k then crash very hard to fill that cme gap of 9.6k and stabilize around 15k -20k then next cycle it will hit 100k. Manipulators want to put this bulltrap mentality that btc will hit 100k this cycle and to make things even worse they are saying 300k hehe, they need people to think that, that is how they manipulate the market, so manipulators can sell the top they want to, I mean they are sure sheeps will not sell at 89k because sheeps will be waiting for 300k hehe then they sell everything they accumulated these past 2 years at 89k and then btc crashes to 20k and then sheeps afraid sell around 20k and btc flash crash to 5k or so and then manipulators buy that btc at that price and hold.



Dude this is bordering on being incomprehensible. Anyway you do realize there have always been CME gaps that never get field, right ? And by the way you're talking about one that happened more than a year ago. Bruh, what ? I mean why this one in particular ?

BTC will drop significantly when it nears ~90-100K simply because by most models it will have become overvalued by then.


----------



## Metroid (Nov 19, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> Dude this is bordering on being incomprehensible. Anyway you do realize there have always been CME gaps that never get field, right ? And by the way you're talking about one that happened more than a year ago. Bruh, what ? I mean why this one in particular ?
> 
> BTC will drop significantly when it nears ~90-100K simply because by most models it will have become overvalued by then.


That 9.6k cme gap is marked as the starting point of the bullrun, that is very important, if you dont find that important then it means you are not an avid trader like me, every detail matters in this market. Anyway, that is what I think btc is going back to when hehell crashes comes, even if is a flash crash, selling climax.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 19, 2021)

Metroid said:


> More here https://bitcoinist.com/heres-why-bitcoin-might-not-dip-to-9600-to-fill-the-cme-gap/ , That cme gap was never filled, trolls were saying last year it would hit, I said it would not hit till it had gone to 79 - 89k then crash back down to fill that gap. So far I have been right, it never crashed to 9.6k to this date, my point I made at that time, that was a beartrap mentality and I was right. I already sold 80% what I had, still with 20% and waiting for btc to go a little bit higher then will sell the last bit I have. I will not make the same mistake I made in 2013 and 2018 of not selling the last 20% I had, this time I will sell it all I have.
> 
> Anyway, aside from that beartrap mentality that I was right, manipulators have gone with this bulltrap mentality that btc will hit 100k this cycle and I said it will not, will be close to 100k then crash very hard to fill that cme gap of 9.6k and stabilize around 15k -20k then next cycle it will hit 100k. Manipulators want to put this bulltrap mentality that btc will hit 100k this cycle and to make things even worse they are saying 300k hehe, they need people to think that, that is how they manipulate the market, so manipulators can sell the top they want to, I mean they are sure sheeps will not sell at 89k because sheeps will be waiting for 300k hehe then they sell everything they accumulated these past 2 years at 89k and then btc crashes to 20k and then sheeps afraid sell around 20k and btc flash crash to 5k or so and then manipulators buy that btc at that price and hold.



there are millions of posts in the internet saying bitcoin would never hit 1000, 10.000, etc... and the same amount of people saying it would crash to almost nothing.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 19, 2021)

well i think 56K was the bottom.. bitcoin now hovering around 58K and ticking upwards albeit slowly.. 

this sheep says BAAA..

trog


----------



## Metroid (Nov 19, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> there are millions of posts in the internet saying bitcoin would never hit 1000, 10.000, etc... and the same amount of people saying it would crash to almost nothing.


I talked many times about this, bitcoin is limited and people who hold it might die anytime and as cryptocoins was and still underground to some extent, meaning, people will hardly say they invest on it to family members, meaning, they die holding bitcoin, meaning if it can't be sold, price will stay where it is or going up, meaning btc as it stands will only go up with time as every cycle comes, hype comes with it, manipulators know if they accumulate price will go up but once it rises too much, 5 to 20 times, people start getting profit because as everything in life even if is limited, there is a limit to how much it will go up every cycle, the moment you understand that, you become a better trader.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 19, 2021)

Metroid said:


> I talked many times about this, bitcoin is limited and people who hold it might die anytime and as cryptocoins was and still underground to some extent, meaning, people will hardly say they invest on it to family members, meaning, they die holding bitcoin, meaning if it can't be sold, price will stay where it is or going up, meaning btc as it stands will only go up with time as every cycle comes, hype comes with it, manipulators know if they accumulate price will go up but once it rises too much, 5 to 20 times, people start getting profit because as everything in life even if is limited, there is a limit to how much it will go up every cycle, the moment you understand that, you become a better trader.



You're seeing the problem from a wrong perspective. The value of one Bitcoin is irrelevant. The value is so high because there is not enough for demand, that's it. 
If you fixate on the 60K or whatever value you loose track of the real value. If you could make more the value wouldn't be 60K, and then you'd be fine with it?

For me that thinking is like comparing stock values. For example MS was the most valued company in the world (idk if they still are but that's irrelevant)








						Microsoft Is Now The World’s Most Valuable Company After Apple Falls On Earnings
					

Shares of Apple plunged after lackluster earnings, making Microsoft the largest company in the world by market value.




					www.forbes.com
				



but there are stocks that have higher unit prices, so what does that mean to you?


----------



## Chomiq (Nov 19, 2021)

Metroid said:


> More here https://bitcoinist.com/heres-why-bitcoin-might-not-dip-to-9600-to-fill-the-cme-gap/ , That cme gap was never filled, trolls were saying last year it would hit, I said it would not hit till it had gone to 79 - 89k then crash back down to fill that gap. So far I have been right, it never crashed to 9.6k to this date, my point I made at that time, that was a beartrap mentality and I was right. I already sold 80% what I had, still with 20% and waiting for btc to go a little bit higher then will sell the last bit I have. I will not make the same mistake I made in 2013 and 2018 of not selling the last 20% I had, this time I will sell it all I have.
> 
> Anyway, aside from that beartrap mentality that I was right, manipulators have gone with this bulltrap mentality that btc will hit 100k this cycle and I said it will not, will be close to 100k then crash very hard to fill that cme gap of 9.6k and stabilize around 15k -20k then next cycle it will hit 100k. Manipulators want to put this bulltrap mentality that btc will hit 100k this cycle and to make things even worse they are saying 300k hehe, they need people to think that, that is how they manipulate the market, so manipulators can sell the top they want to, I mean they are sure sheeps will not sell at 89k because sheeps will be waiting for 300k hehe then they sell everything they accumulated these past 2 years at 89k and then btc crashes to 20k and then sheeps afraid sell around 20k and btc flash crash to 5k or so and then manipulators buy that btc at that price and hold.


----------



## Metroid (Nov 19, 2021)

Bomby569 said:


> You're seeing the problem from a wrong perspective. The value of one Bitcoin is irrelevant. The value is so high because there is not enough for demand, that's it.
> If you fixate on the 60K or whatever value you loose track of the real value. If you could make more the value wouldn't be 60K, and then you'd be fine with it?
> 
> For me that thinking is like comparing stock values. For example MS was the most valued company in the world (idk if they still are but that's irrelevant)
> ...


Problem where? there is no problem, that is just supply, demand and manipulation on a limited commodity but like I said manipulation goes both ways, since july 2020 manipulation had gone up and up and still up, soon the manipulation will be going down down and down. That is how cryptomarket has always been since 2011 and betting against history one can lose a lot of money.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 19, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Problem where? there is no problem, that is just supply, demand and manipulation on a limited commodity but like I said manipulation goes both ways, since july 2020 manipulation had gone up and up and still up, soon the manipulation will be going down down and down. That is how cryptomarket has always been since 2011 and betting against history one can lose a lot of money.


if it is manipulation and nothing else like you say then the sky is the limit, it will keep going up and down so whoever manipulates can make money, if it crashes completely there's nothing more to manipulate. Your own argument fights agains you.

It's as much manipulation as any other stock if you watch them closely, going up and down constantly. People will always want to cash in, or there would be no point in investing.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 20, 2021)

And that's enough of the bickering, thanks. Let's get back on topic please.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 24, 2021)

wednesday mornng here in the UK.. bitcoin seem to be back in sideways mode.. hovering around 56K with eth doing the same..

gold has taken a big dive over the last few day and stock markets are flat..

i have a gut feeling something is about to happen but i havnt a clue what.. he he..

trog


----------



## dorsetknob (Nov 24, 2021)

trog100 said:


> i have a gut feeling something is about to happen but i havnt a clue what.. he he..


Did You have a Curry last night ?

I hear and have read India is contemplating Crypto Ban


			Cryptocurrency battle looms as India becomes latest country to consider ban


----------



## Chomiq (Nov 24, 2021)

dorsetknob said:


> Did You have a Curry last night ?
> 
> I hear and have read India is contemplating Crypto Ban
> 
> ...


They've been planning this for a long time as they want to play China and have their own government issued digital currency that they will use to spy on people.


----------



## sepheronx (Nov 24, 2021)

dorsetknob said:


> Did You have a Curry last night ?
> 
> I hear and have read India is contemplating Crypto Ban
> 
> ...



Yeap, the plan at least till Nov 29.

I can tell you, this is laughable.  It wont be enforceable.  China has a firm grip on their society.  India does not.

Like the "farmer bill" that the corrupt Punjabi officials been fighting against and bringing out their useful idiots (and the NRI's who have so much money involved in the current scheme), forced Modi to eventually fold and tear up the bill.  More people invest in crypto in India now than they do in gold.  The government will end up getting so much hate that this would probably get the even more corrupt and idiotic Congress back into power (I hope not).


----------



## prtskg (Nov 24, 2021)

dorsetknob said:


> Did You have a Curry last night ?
> 
> I hear and have read India is contemplating Crypto Ban
> 
> ...


They are considering to ban some and allow some and regulate and tax the allowed cryptos.


----------



## Vya Domus (Nov 24, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> government issued digital currency that they will use to spy on people.


Every government has full access to all accounts of banks that operate in their country and probably outside of it as well on request, so that can't be the real reason, they can already spy with ease.

Many expect the crypto market will hit the peak of this cycle somewhere around the end of the year or very on early next year, the bill is supposed to pass in December. Makes you wonder, interesting coincidence or perhaps not.


----------



## Metroid (Nov 24, 2021)

Imagine how many people got loans to buy crypto and in the end will not sell high because of greedy and will be in debt for the rest of their lives, crypto gone up significantly on last 18 months and when hehell crash hits, it will crash 50% in 30 minutes ehhe and after 2 weeks will crash more 45% at best, at worse 99% hehe

Sheeps will not sell at 60k - 89k top but they will sell when it crashes 90% hehe, truth here is only manipulators/wolves sell at top, sheeps will always sell at bottom and they think they will sell at top hehe, only the people who control the market will sell at top because they will create the top, pay attention that manipulators also create the bottom too. If manipulators want btc at 5k again then they will make sure btc crashes to that and stays there for a long time, manipulation is so strong in this market. They have the fiat and the coins to manipulate to anywhere they want to.


----------



## R0H1T (Nov 24, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> Yeap, the plan at least till Nov 29.
> 
> I can tell you, this is laughable.  It wont be enforceable.  China has a firm grip on their society.  India does not.
> 
> Like the "farmer bill" that the corrupt Punjabi officials been fighting against and bringing out their useful idiots (and the NRI's who have so much money involved in the current scheme), forced Modi to eventually fold and tear up the bill.  *More people invest in crypto in India now than they do in gold*.  The government will end up getting so much hate that this would probably get the even more corrupt and idiotic Congress back into power (I hope not).


Do you have any numbers for that, or source? I*I*RC India is still the biggest importer of gold, outside China with their industrial use, & it's still one of the most popular instrument for investment. Crypto is still nowhere close, unless we're talking black money?



prtskg said:


> They are considering to ban some and allow some and regulate and tax the allowed cryptos.


That's not really enforceable ~ either ban all or ban none!


----------



## Chomiq (Nov 24, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> Every government has full access to all accounts of banks that operate in their country and probably outside of it as well on request, so that can't be the real reason, they can already spy with ease.


Not when you operate with cash. When I pay with debit card my bank knows where, when, they only don't know what exactly is it I purchased (say what I bought in grocery store). I would imagine it will be easier to track once IRS or whoever can link e-coin wallet ID on the receipt.


Metroid said:


> Imagine how many people got loans to buy crypto and in the end will not sell high because of greedy and will be in debt for the rest of their lives, crypto gone up significantly on last 18 months and when hehell crash hits, it will crash 50% in 30 minutes ehhe and after 2 weeks will crash more 45% at best, at worse 99% hehe
> 
> Sheeps will not sell at 60k - 89k top but they will sell when it crashes 90% hehe, truth here is only manipulators/wolves sell at top, sheeps will always sell at bottom and they think they will sell at top hehe, only the people who control the market will sell at top because they will create the top, pay attention that manipulators also create the bottom too. If manipulators want btc at 5k again then they will make sure btc crashes to that and stays there for a long time, manipulation is so strong in this market. They have the fiat and the coins to manipulate to anywhere they want to.


This you on June 26:


Metroid said:


> This will keep crashing litle by little then will crash a lot, people buying it now will regret very soon.


Since then:



I think you need to change your fortune teller.


----------



## Vya Domus (Nov 24, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> When I pay with debit card my bank knows where, when, they only don't know what exactly is it I purchased (say what I bought in grocery store). I would imagine it will be easier to track once IRS or whoever can link e-coin wallet ID on the receipt.


I still don't see why government issued crypto is required for this. You can achieve the same thing with the banking system currently in use.



R0H1T said:


> That's not really enforceable ~ either ban all or ban none!



The concept of banning crypto is idiotic in first place, the only thing they can really do is force exchanges to delist coins, not ban them because that's not possible. But even then, there are still ways to get hold of them like unisawp, so it makes no real difference.


----------



## Metroid (Nov 24, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> .........



If you follow history you will see that midterm crash always happened, the question is if they would repump it or blaze to hehell, I said what was logical, even though history said they would reaccumulate again, I was saying there was a possibility of a hehell crash at that time. The same thing now, everybody is expecting a huge move upwards now and then a huge crash afterwards, for all we know it could just crash to hehell now, truth is there is no way to know these things, I'm not the one manipulating the market so clearly I have no idea where this is going, only manipulators know. Like I said before and that is why my theory will always work, cryptocoins rose too much and too fast, so a huge crash is expected and that always happened, and maybe trolls ask well, okay, so will it happen now? I say yes there is a limit to how much they can manipulate every cycle.


----------



## R0H1T (Nov 24, 2021)

Metroid said:


> I say yes there is a limit to how much they can manipulate every cycle.


Right & that leverage or margin goes down each passing day as more (normal) users invest in crypto. Of course there's always *squidgame *& similar con schemes 

Basically the more money is pumped in crypto the harder it is for one whale or even a bunch of whales to manipulate it, in that it's kinda similar to the stock markets! That is not to say they can't do fake news, or tweets, & crash it overnight but it's less of a problem if billionaires are already heavily invested in many of them.

I'd argue, if & only if you are looking to invest, just go with the top 10-20 biggest coins by market cap. They're "relatively" safe simply due to the sheer amount of money invested already. Again *YMWV *& do your due diligence.


----------



## Metroid (Nov 24, 2021)

R0H1T said:


> Right & that leverage or margin goes down each passing day as more (normal) users invest in crypto. Of course there's always *squidgame *& similar con schemes
> 
> Basically the more money is pumped in crypto the harder it is for one whale or even a bunch of whales to manipulate it, in that it's kinda similar to the stock markets! That is not to say they can't do fake news, or tweets, & crash it overnight but it's less of a problem if billionaires are already heavily invested in many of them.
> 
> I'd argue, if & only if you are looking to invest, just go with the top 10-20 biggest coins by market cap. They're "relatively" safe simply due to the sheer amount of money invested already. Again *YMWV *& do your due diligence.



Yes, that is what I always said, top 20 coins is pretty safe long term, the real issue is if the project dies, people lose lot of money, however I always say to people to play both sides, do not expect this to keep going up for longer(bullrun) and if bearrun do not expect this thing to keep going down for longer, everything has a limit and real world issues like inflation plays a large role here, people will take 10 to 20% their fiat and reinvest in something they think will help them in that regard.

I'm totally in favor of people who bought btc for 10 to 20k and sold for 30 or 40k, now too much greedy will make them blind to the truth, everything in life has a limit. Those people who bought for example at 20k and sold for 30k are already protected if inflation hits. If you stay too long gambling then you might lose a lot, like what i said earlier, many people who bought at 10k to this date still have not sold, they want to sell at 100k or higher and that is not protecting from inflation, that is pure gamble. Anyway, that will teach them, in 2018 I decided not to sell my last 20% on eth and in the end I lost a lot. I mean seeing the price of eth 1400 usd january 2018 and few months later at 80 usd was painful. That was a 95% crash.


----------



## sepheronx (Nov 24, 2021)

R0H1T said:


> Do you have any numbers for that, or source? I*I*RC India is still the biggest importer of gold, outside China with their industrial use, & it's still one of the most popular instrument for investment. Crypto is still nowhere close, unless we're talking black money?
> 
> 
> That's not really enforceable ~ either ban all or ban none!











						From gold to crypto, Indians seem to be changing preference
					

CoinSwitch Kuber is one of a handful of crypto exchanges that are in operation in India. Recently, in a Series B round, the startup amassed $25 million from a reputed VC named Tiger Global at a valuation of $500 million.




					economictimes.indiatimes.com
				




Now determine, is the gold also being bought by banks and government?  Separate what average person is buying vs what the state is buying.

Black money may be big too.  But there is no way, that I am aware of source at least, that calculates that.


----------



## R0H1T (Nov 24, 2021)

The article seems to be saying two (contradictory?) things ~


> In India, where households own more than 25,000 tonnes of gold, crypto investments grew from about $923 million in April 2020 to nearly $6.6 billion in May 2021.











sepheronx said:


> Now determine, is the gold also being bought by banks and government?


Yes, I'll have to check some official resources to see if there are any hard numbers recently. No doubt crypto investments have blown up but the quantum or *numbers in that article are dubious* to say the least!

This is also in part because people here usually don't report these earnings & I have serious doubts if crypto exchanges are reporting them properly.


----------



## sepheronx (Nov 24, 2021)

R0H1T said:


> The article seems to be saying two (contradictory?) things ~
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Do they report also on gold in private sales?  I mean, when I went to Apra to buy gold, I was able to buy whatever and it was in cash.

So I doubt they honestly report what they sold.  That village is huge for gold sales, at least for Punjabi's.


----------



## Vya Domus (Nov 24, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> Now determine, is the gold also being bought by banks and government?  Separate what average person is buying vs what the state is buying.



It doesn't even matter, the overwhelming majority of the volume of gold that is traded nowadays is in the form of futures, i.e gold that doesn't exist physically. Because of this it's price evolution is complete bollocks, mostly unrelated to a real supply and demand model and if people think crypto markets are manipulated they really should look into how gold is traded.

At this point BTC feels more real and constrained than gold.


----------



## sepheronx (Nov 24, 2021)

Vya Domus said:


> It doesn't even matter, the overwhelming majority of the volume of gold that is traded nowadays is in the form of futures, i.e gold that doesn't exist physically. Because of this it's price evolution is complete bollocks, mostly unrelated to a real supply and demand model and if people think crypto markets are manipulated they really should look into how gold is traded.
> 
> At this point BTC feels more real and constrained than gold.



Well, I am more specific to the gold market in India.  I am not sure about the government and banks comment but I do know physical gold is sold quite a bit in India with villages/towns entire economy revolves around the trade of it.  It is where I buy all my physical gold for my wife.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 26, 2021)

early friday morning here in the UK.. after a nice little rise last night bitcoin and eth have taken a rapid dive.. bitcoin at 55K and eth 4.1 K.. 

i am pretty sure its connected to stock market falls based on a new covid variation scare.. no other reason..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 26, 2021)

trog100 said:


> early friday morning here in the UK.. after a nice little rise last night bitcoin and eth have taken a rapid dive.. bitcoin at 55K and eth 4.1 K..
> 
> i am pretty sure its connected to stock market falls based on a new covid variation scare.. no other reason..
> 
> trog


What's interesting is that BTC and ETH seem to be going in directions independently of each other.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Nov 29, 2021)

Hey @RandallFlagg you there mate?

Would like to know your thoughts on where BTC goes next as you seem like the resident Guru here for market predictions : ) I'm finding it at interesting crossroads.

Thanks pal.
​


----------



## trog100 (Nov 29, 2021)

monday and the stock market are back in the green.. bitcoin now back at 57K and eth up near 4.4 k..

eth on average seems to show slightly higher gains than bitcoin.. but they still seems closely linked..

i expect some big gains before the end of the year but i could be wrong i expected them during november but they didnt happen.. 

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 29, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Hey @RandallFlagg you there mate?
> 
> Would like to know your thoughts on where BTC goes next as you seem like the resident Guru here for market predictions : ) I'm finding it at interesting crossroads.
> 
> ...



From a momentum standpoint, the *weekly *chart shows it near a cross, but not yet there.   You can see the two previous reactions to the cross below.  This basically means nothing but caution, these lines could level out with price going up.    The price trend lines are up and not broken on daily and weekly.  

But I think you are right, it's at a critical point as evidenced by the two EMA lines nearing a cross below. This move up is not as strong as the one that ended in the spring (bottom of the graph line is RSI which measures # of buys vs sells, aka strength).  That is a form of divergence or loss of momentum.  However at this scale, that can go on for a couple of years.  If those EMA's on the MACD cross and the price trend is broken, it will imply a trend reversal with lower prices.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Nov 29, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> the *weekly *chart shows it near a cross



Legend matey. Love your work


----------



## Metroid (Nov 29, 2021)

lexluthermiester said:


> What's interesting is that BTC and ETH seem to be going in directions independently of each other.


Last year that was true, bitcoin got to 40k first and eth was at that time 900 usd, btc grew a lot then stopped and then eth grew a lot and both seems all right at moment, very likely to what happened in 2017 to 2018. After this bullrun ends, eth will crash so hard, back to 0.02 to btc, at moment eth must be at 0.07 to btc.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 30, 2021)

tuesday night.. bitcoin has been as high as 58K but has dropped back to 57K.. eth seems to be breaking away from bitcoin and is now at 4.6K..

not quite the normal pattern..

trog


----------



## Metroid (Nov 30, 2021)

trog100 said:


> tuesday night.. bitcoin has been as high as 58K but has dropped back to 57K.. eth seems to be breaking away from bitcoin and is now at 4.6K..
> 
> not quite the normal pattern..
> 
> trog


Well I'm still holding 20% of eth I bought in 2018, waiting for 7.9k, I hope manipulators will take it to there. My initial assessment on last year was that eth would rise from 0.16 to 0.1 to btc and eth still have not got there, in 2017 it got as high as 0.158 btc, so if btc gets to 79k, eth would be around 7.9k and that is what i think it will happen or maybe eth would not get to 0.1, however btc would get to 89k top close to 100k. The last bulltrap, then hehell. The whole eth ecosystem is a mafia itself, just look usdt, created from thin air and is used to pump coins, trillions of usdt can be created in seconds and pump btc to 1 million hehe, need to be very careful here, the mafia are smart, they sure will not take btc to 1 million this time, will look too scammy but they can and like I said before is easy, just create a lot of usdt, with usdc and other stable coins that are audited they cant do that, usdt is eth mafia's coin, I believe it was created for that sole reason,  manipulate the market.


----------



## trog100 (Dec 1, 2021)

wednesday morning.. bitcoin is pretty flat at 57K.. eth definitely on the rise at 4.7K near its all time highs..

the stock markets are back in the green..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Dec 2, 2021)

thursday.. i was bit premature with my stock market comment yesterday.. US markets ended up in the red.. the crypto markets dipped accordingly.. whoops.. he he

trog

ps this new variant thing could be the black swan event that triggers a bigger stock market crash.. its a strong possibility..


----------



## Dromze (Dec 3, 2021)

trog100 said:


> thursday.. i was bit premature with my stock market comment yesterday.. US markets ended up in the red.. the crypto markets dipped accordingly.. whoops.. he he
> 
> trog
> 
> ps this new variant thing could be the black swan event that triggers a bigger stock market crash.. its a strong possibility..


Such volatility is normal for the cryptocurrency market.


----------



## trog100 (Dec 3, 2021)

Dromze said:


> Such volatility is normal for the cryptocurrency market.



friday.. the volatility is mostly predicable.. but the stocks markets are back in the green.. so what should have happened yesterday will happen today.. 

i expect a move higher.. a day late but the same result.. he he..

trog

ps.. whoops premature again.. stocks have puked and crypto pukes with them.. he he..


----------



## Outback Bronze (Dec 4, 2021)

RandallFlagg said:


> it will imply a trend reversal with lower prices.



Yep that's what just happened


----------



## RandallFlagg (Dec 4, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> Yep that's what just happened



Yep, price trend broke and weekly EMA crossed.  And that happened before the really big drop after hours.


----------



## trog100 (Dec 4, 2021)

saturday morning.. whoops.. bitcoin at 47K and eth at 3.9K.. more of a crash than trend reversal i think but who knows..

where to now i wonder.. ??

what happens to the stock markets on monday will be interesting..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Dec 8, 2021)

wednesday morning.. bitcoin up to between 50 and 51K and going sideways.. it could be establishing a new bottom..

eth between 4.3 and 4.4K.. as a general rule eth seems to be slowly moving higher relative to bitcoin but basically going sideways..

stock markets are back in the green.. the crypto markets seem to be linked to the general markets.. if the general markets go down they will takes crypto with them.. if not i think bitcoin and eth will start heading back up..

trog

ps.. premature again.. the stock markets have dipped into the red and bitcoin and eth have dipped with them.. he he


----------



## trog100 (Dec 14, 2021)

tuesday morning and bitcoin is down at 47K with eth at 3.8K... where it goes from here nobody knows.. 

there is lot of fear in the general markets.. fear drives prices down..

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Dec 14, 2021)

trog100 said:


> tuesday morning and bitcoin is down at 47K with eth at 3.8K... where it goes from here nobody knows..
> 
> there is lot of fear in the general markets.. fear drives prices down..
> 
> trog


----------



## Outback Bronze (Dec 14, 2021)

If anybody is interested, DOGE is pumping because Elon just tweeted Tesla is going to accept DOGE in their online store


----------



## sepheronx (Dec 14, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> If anybody is interested, DOGE is pumping because Elon just tweeted Tesla is going to accept DOGE in their online store


I see he is at it again eh?


----------



## Chomiq (Dec 14, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> If anybody is interested, DOGE is pumping because Elon just tweeted Tesla is going to accept DOGE in their online store


Expect him to dump it all in month or so with "Ummm, actually we're not accepting DOGE anymore"


----------



## dorsetknob (Dec 14, 2021)

trog100 said:


> there is lot of fear in the general markets.. fear drives prices down..


When there is a Shortage Fear also Drives the Price of things up


----------



## RandallFlagg (Dec 14, 2021)

Normally would expect a re-test of the trend line, in purple below.  Weekly scale chart so this is long term.

All the major stock indexes along with crypto show the same thing.  This is BTC:








Meanwhile the advance - decline ratio continues to plummet.  This shows that the number of stocks advancing - declining has been going down since Feb (this means more stocks are losing value than going up in value).   This had a chance to recover in late Oct but didn't.  This looks far worse than the breadth divergence that presaged the financial crisis of 2008.


----------



## trog100 (Dec 16, 2021)

thursday morning.. bitcoin now around 49K with eth at 4.0K..   a slight up-tick.. not a lot but at least things didnt go lower.. 

trog


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Dec 16, 2021)

Outback Bronze said:


> If anybody is interested, DOGE is pumping because Elon just tweeted Tesla is going to accept DOGE in their online store


Well, at least DOGE isn't tweeting that they're accepting Elon. A further artificially pumped up Elon is the last thing we need.


----------



## trog100 (Dec 24, 2021)

christmas eve morning and bitcoin is just over 51K with eth at 4.1K... up nicely from the 46K lows.. 

i think the downwards trend has reversed and things are on the up from now on.. but i could be wrong.. he he..

trog


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Dec 24, 2021)

trog100 said:


> christmas eve morning and bitcoin is just over 51K with eth at 4.1K... up nicely from the 46K lows..
> 
> i think the downwards trend has reversed and things are on the up from now on.. but i could be wrong.. he he..
> 
> trog


heh, if it keeps going up, we might start seeing commercials with Sonny the Cuckoo Bird exclaiming he's "cuckoo for crypto-currency" while sporting a large box of RTX 3090Ti cards and a bowl of Bitcoins.


----------



## R-T-B (Dec 24, 2021)

sepheronx said:


> I see he is at it again eh?


He never stopped.  Someone needs to stick him in cryostasis on a trip to mars just to shut up his twitter.


----------



## Metroid (Dec 24, 2021)

Chomiq said:


> Expect him to dump it all in month or so with "Ummm, actually we're not accepting DOGE anymore"


Yeah people that think that elon is here for the little guys will be disappointed hehe

Anyway, enjoy the last bulltrap trolls, this is going a little higher than 69k and then hehell, crash at least 80%, could go to 90% from top for btc, altcoins 99% crash from top ehhe and scamcoins 99.99% from top hehe, my prediction still stands, btc 79 to 89k at maximum, btc will not hit 100k this cycle.


----------



## R-T-B (Dec 24, 2021)

Metroid said:


> Anyway, enjoy the last bulltrap trolls, this is going a little higher than 69k and then hehell, crash at least 80%, could go to 90% from top for btc, altcoins 99% crash from top ehhe and scamcoins 99.99% from top hehe, my prediction still stands, btc 79 to 89k at maximum, btc will not hit 100k this cycle.


Cool story bro.


----------



## Bomby569 (Dec 27, 2021)

I really dislike crypto in general, but this doomsday predictions are funny, we've seen them since the 1000$ boom. At what point do people say, maybe i don't know what i am talking about.


----------



## Chomiq (Jan 3, 2022)

Bitcoin's at $47k, ETH's down to $3800 and it's all quiet here? What's behind the $20k dip?


----------



## trog100 (Jan 3, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> Bitcoin's at $47k, ETH's down to $3800 and it's all quiet here? What's behind the $20k dip?



hard to say.. there is no real answer to that one.. one could equally say.. why did it go as high as it did in the first place.. 

the interesting question is.. where does it go from here.. 

trog


----------



## Bomby569 (Jan 3, 2022)

The only value of crypto is supply and demand for the coins itself, less people buying so value drops. I guess the pyramid is having trouble recruting more people for the bottom. 
And don't attack the messanger, i have nothing against crypto, just stating the obvious here.


----------



## sepheronx (Jan 3, 2022)

trog100 said:


> hard to say.. there is no real answer to that one.. one could equally say.. why did it go as high as it did in the first place..
> 
> the interesting question is.. where does it go from here..
> 
> trog


I read that there was a dump of over $330M of BTC/ETH in late December.  Not sure what was the reason, people say to prepare for taxes.  I am not entirely sure though as that doesnt make sense since I believe tax documents dont come out till the next year.  Unless they are just planning ahead.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 3, 2022)

sepheronx said:


> I read that there was a dump of over $330M of BTC/ETH in late December.  Not sure what was the reason, people say to prepare for taxes.  I am not entirely sure though as that doesnt make sense since I believe tax documents dont come out till the next year.  Unless they are just planning ahead.



i have read a lot.. none of it provides an answer.. one thing is for sure a lot of people were wrong in their predictions of over 100K before the year end..

there is a lot of fear in the general markets.. could be big money is just hanging on to cash until the new year gets rolling and things become a little clearer.. 

trog


----------



## sepheronx (Jan 3, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i have read a lot.. none of it provides an answer.. one thing is for sure a lot of people were wrong in their predictions of over 100K before the year end..
> 
> there is a lot of fear in the general markets.. could be big money is just hanging on to cash until the new year gets rolling and things become a little clearer..
> 
> trog


well, we wont know until after tax time.  It was same as last year and year before that.  We are into new year, and with it, comes the tax man.  So of course lots are dumping for cash so they can pay their taxes and rightly so.


----------



## Metroid (Jan 3, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> Bitcoin's at $47k, ETH's down to $3800 and it's all quiet here? What's behind the $20k dip?


Whales know the limit when is hit, no whale is crazy enough to venture in that level again as many whales were killed and now many are stuck at that level, the smart whale sold fast and others are stuck, whales have a limit as how much they want to invest in something, if bitcoin does not rise above 69k previous high next 6 months then next is to think how low it can go, right now looking at 80% crash, that would mean back to 10k, selling climax lower than 10k possible, then rise to 15k-20k and stay there for the next 3 years or so, it can hold pretty well at 15k as bottom right now till it rises again, next cycle.

Many newcomers are still very spoiled by cryptos, many already have seen the reality because they probably have lost a lot and have no clear sign their altcoins they bought at or close to the top will rise again, so fear will soon take over and then mass sell off, I still think there will be a last bulltrap just like march 2018 and then crash hard from there.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jan 3, 2022)

sepheronx said:


> I read that there was a dump of over $330M of BTC/ETH in late December.  Not sure what was the reason, people say to prepare for taxes.  I am not entirely sure though as that doesnt make sense since I believe tax documents dont come out till the next year.  Unless they are just planning ahead.



that makes no sense to me, if you sell crypto then you have to pay taxes on it, so why would that solve any tax problem, it would just make it worst as you would have to pay taxes on the crypto sale.
Selling crypto to pay taxes is just making more taxes to pay


----------



## sepheronx (Jan 3, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> that makes no sense to me, if you sell crypto then you have to pay taxes on it, so why would that solve any tax problem, it would just make it worst as you would have to pay taxes on the crypto sale.
> Selling crypto to pay taxes is just making more taxes to pay


No, you have to pay taxes even on crypto even if not sold. The new rules are a pain in the arse.

Plus the big holders of these coins are also got other assets they pay for. Crypto is just the better option to dump over property and other assets.

Thankfully for me, I have more losses than gains outside the mining aspect so yeah....


----------



## Bomby569 (Jan 3, 2022)

sepheronx said:


> No, you have to pay taxes even on crypto even if not sold. The new rules are a pain in the arse.
> 
> Plus the big holders of these coins are also got other assets they pay for. Crypto is just the better option to dump over property and other assets.
> 
> Thankfully for me, I have more losses than gains outside the mining aspect so yeah....



i just googled it and it seemed to confirm what i was saying, i don't think that unrealised gains is applicable in crypto. not sure anymore now. Are you sure, do you have a quote for it

PS: i'm not in the US and it definetely doesn't apply here, but i imagine we are talking in the US context here.


----------



## sepheronx (Jan 3, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> i just googled it and it seemed to confirm what i was saying, i don't think that unrealised gains is applicable in crypto. not sure anymore now. Are you sure, do you have a quote for it


Maybe not, dunno.

But I'll give you a hint of something I learned through grapevine - people sell to dump into rrsp and what not to save from taxes. At least in Canada. Not sure in USA.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jan 3, 2022)

sepheronx said:


> Maybe not, dunno.
> 
> But I'll give you a hint of something I learned through grapevine - people sell to dump into rrsp and what not to save from taxes. At least in Canada. Not sure in USA.



i guess that's nice. we do have lot's of incentives to do it, but not with crypto.


----------



## sepheronx (Jan 3, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> i guess that's nice. we do have lot's of incentives to do it, but not with crypto.


Crypto so far is just a stock market like gains. But we will see. The tax code here regarding it is stupid confusing and lots are worried.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jan 3, 2022)

sepheronx said:


> Crypto so far is just a stock market like gains. But we will see. The tax code here regarding it is stupid confusing and lots are worried.



You can't honestly say it's fair to everything pay taxes including stocks but not crypto, it would make no sense. But there's way to use crypto without paying taxes, it just isn't legal.


----------



## cvaldes (Jan 4, 2022)

sepheronx said:


> Crypto so far is just a stock market like gains. But we will see. The tax code here regarding it is stupid confusing and lots are worried.


It's entirely dependent by legal jurisdiction and the situation changes.

Here in the USA, I believe the IRS currently treats crypto trading pretty much the same as basic gambling and taxed the same as ordinary wages. There is no capital gains tax discount. My state offers no preferential capital gains tax rate; all income is taxed equally.

If you are trading crypto, just take the attitude that your tax agency will eventually treat this like gambling earnings.

From an ROI standpoint, most of the discount stock brokerages in the USA have gotten rid of trade commissions (for normal stock transactions). However crypto transactions incur a 1.5-2.0% exchange fee so crypto isn't ideal for day trading or small percentage swing trading.

BTC and ETH have been pretty stagnant over the past couple of weeks so you really can't swing trade these cryptos because of the exchange fee overhead.


----------



## sepheronx (Jan 4, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> It's entirely dependent by legal jurisdiction and the situation changes.
> 
> Here in the USA, I believe the IRS currently treats crypto trading pretty much the same as basic gambling and taxed the same as ordinary wages. There is no capital gains tax discount. My state offers no preferential capital gains tax rate; all income is taxed equally.
> 
> ...


over here, its capital gains tax, but only on a certain conditions.  It isn't quite clear cut.


----------



## cvaldes (Jan 4, 2022)

Well, enjoy it while the Canadian tax authorities treat it as capital gains. Perhaps some day they won't but I admittedly don't know what the sentiments are with your country's tax authorities.

South of the border, capital gains tax rates and regulations change periodically. The previous administration simplified some of this; it was short of a true tax reform but it was a move in the right direction.

I expect taxation of cryptos to be a fluid situation for years to come. 

One thing I am convinced about: cryptos aren't going away. Tax agencies will figure out a way to get their pound of flesh.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 6, 2022)

bitcoin down at 42K with eth at 3.3K.. how low will it go..

i think its following the stock markets which are all in the red.. how low will they go..

maybe the everything bubble is about to pop.. who knows..

my mining returns are looking pretty dismal.. 

trog


----------



## nguyen (Jan 6, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin down at 42K with eth at 3.3K.. how low will it go..
> 
> i think its following the stock markets which are all in the red.. how low will they go..
> 
> ...



Time to unload all your Ampere GPU then


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 6, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin down at 42K with eth at 3.3K.. how low will it go..
> 
> i think its following the stock markets which are all in the red.. how low will they go..
> 
> ...



What was ATH for each?  I'd look it up, but am lazy.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 6, 2022)

There were many predictions but several predicted that $42k is another support line. One prediction was from $42k, it will go back up to $60k. Not sure about crypto but I think 3 straight days of losses for stocks, tmw will be an up day. Golden opportunity to buy stocks today, and I am going to buy some ETH this morning as well.


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 6, 2022)

nguyen said:


> Time to unload all your Ampere GPU then


Mine game too, so nope.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jan 6, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin down at 42K with eth at 3.3K.. how low will it go..
> 
> i think its following the stock markets which are all in the red.. how low will they go..
> 
> ...



so no more "buy the dip" then?


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 6, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> so no more "buy the dip" then?


I don't care what others do, but I've been buying.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 6, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> so no more "buy the dip" then?



i think long term the way is up.. short term it may go down a bit more.. buy the dip is still the general thinking.. but the general thinking could be wrong.. he he

in truth its a bit of an unknown..

trog


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 6, 2022)

Yeah, I think long term, 1-3 years it should be up.


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## Vya Domus (Jan 6, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> There were many predictions but several predicted that $42k is another support line. One prediction was from $42k, it will go back up to $60k.



Technically analysis doesn't work, if it did, these wouldn't be predictions, they'd be certainties.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 6, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> Technically analysis doesn't work, if it did, these wouldn't be predictions, they'd be certainties.


I have been investing for over 20 years and to this date I still don’t use technical analysis unless I am day trading. However, I think those predictions were made in how they “feel” about the future.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jan 6, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> I still don’t use technical analysis unless I am day trading.


Day trading has been destroyed by trading bots, too much volume and frequency, impossible to try and predict anything short term. It's so bad that even hedge funds usually hold positions for 1-3 months.


----------



## demirael (Jan 7, 2022)

I expect ETH to rise when mining becomes infeasible so I'm hodling whatever I can mine (on a single 5700XT, lol) until then. I agree about technical analysis, in crypto it's really nothing more than guesses esp. when people like Elon Musk can affect the market by tweeting something.


----------



## Metroid (Jan 7, 2022)

It seems this is gameover however it will be a last bulltrap yet just like march 2018, so even if you trolls buy now will be a last opportunity to sell high before it crashes very hard to below 10k selling climax. I'm taking 69k as the top, for now I was wrong, I predicted at least 79 to 89k, unless the last bulltrap takes this very high and fast to my predicted levels and then crash very hard then my selling climax prediction will be around 15k, if eth is done with mining on july then people who have locked up their eth on beacon chain will get their coins back and then sell as soon as possible and eth might crash below 200 usd again. I dont see eth mining ending in july, neither people getting their coins back, so right now eth selling climax would be around 300 usd.


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 7, 2022)

I too have a crystal ball, but I don't ever pretend x number is "gameover" because that's not how crypto works.


----------



## KLiKzg (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> It seems this is gameover however it will be a last bulltrap yet just like march 2018, so even if you trolls buy now will be a last opportunity to sell high before it crashes very hard to below 10k selling climax. I'm taking 69k as the top, for now I was wrong, I predicted at least 79 to 89k, unless the last bulltrap takes this very high and fast to my predicted levels and then crash very hard then my selling climax prediction will be around 15k, if eth is done with mining on july then people who have locked up their eth on beacon chain will get their coins back and then sell as soon as possible and eth might crash below 200 usd again. I dont see eth mining ending in july, neither people getting their coins back, so right now eth selling climax would be around 300 usd.


That would mean ETH will crash to 10% of its value (current 3.200€). Seriously doubt that will happen!

Maybe you wanted to put another 0 into the mix. On that, we can agree...ETH should not go below 2.000€.


----------



## Metroid (Jan 7, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> That would mean ETH will crash to 10% of its value (current 3.200€). Seriously doubt that will happen!
> 
> Maybe you wanted to put another 0 into the mix. On that, we can agree...ETH should not go below 2.000€.


That is what happens, I know is hard to accept, in 2018 eth crashed from 1440 to 80 usd, do the math and see for yourself.



R-T-B said:


> I too have a crystal ball, but I don't ever pretend x number is "gameover" because that's not how crypto works.


Is so hard to accept that cryptomarket works in cycles?


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> That is what happens, I know is hard to accept, in 2018 eth crashed from 1440 to 80 usd, do the math and see for yourself.
> 
> 
> Is so hard to accept that cryptomarket works in cycles?



Most stuff goes in cycles, but markets are only predictable to a point.  Crypto is a new market, and the dearth of historical data makes prognostication trickier than most established markets (IMO; not an expert by any means).  Even traditional markets can catch experienced traders out with an unexpected spike or crash, which is why some wonks advise one to play the long game. RF and LC have overlaid some known patterns to crypto's trajectory at a couple of points, but I haven't been paying close enough attention to see if the trends suggested bore out.  I too expect crypto to crash hard at some point, but am under no illusion that I have any idea at what point in time or at what value that will happen.  Or what the max or min will be.  No one really does; that's one reason the market is volatile.

Although if I'd trusted my gut (and had any money) when Google went public, I'd be sitting pretty right about now.  But that's some pretty hardcore ex post facto reasoning.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> Is so hard to accept that cryptomarket works in cycles?



Of course the cycles are real, it's the same with every other market but this is true only in terms of directions the markets take not in terms of magnitude, you on the other hand are literally certain that these things will hit the exact same prices they once used to be at. That's insane, you need to find a better hobby dude.

Why not go the extra step and claim everything will go to zero ? As far as I can see that would be the perfect cycle for the crypto market, from 0 to 0. Makes sense ?


----------



## dorsetknob (Jan 7, 2022)

"The cryptocurrency reached a high of just under £50k in November but has since been working its way downwards. This week a sharp dip from Wednesday took it even lower to now stand at just over £31k, its lowest level since September last year. A recent hit to Bitcoin has come from disruption to mining in Kazakhstan, which is the world's second-largest country for Bitcoin mining, contributing 18 percent of its computing power or hash rate. This week internet has been shut down in the country following protests over rises in fuel prices leading to a fall in the hash rate."

Cold weather and civil Disturbance go along way to explain the Current Crash

So called Source 




__





						What's going on with Bitcoin? Crypto at lowest point since September after steep fall
					





					www.msn.com


----------



## R0H1T (Jan 7, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i think its following the stock markets which are all in the red.. how low will they go..


It's been doing that for at least the least quarter or two & it isn't exactly following the stock markets ~ the biggest drivers in stocks & crypto (whales) are pretty much the same people & you'll see them employ similar strategies across a wider range of investments!

In contrast *plebs *follow the(ir) trends & do panic buying/selling in most cases


----------



## Metroid (Jan 7, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> Of course the cycles are real, it's the same with every other market but this is true only in terms of directions the markets take not in terms of magnitude, you on the other hand are literally certain that these things will hit the exact same prices they once used to be at. That's insane, you need to find a better hobby dude.
> 
> Why not go the extra step and claim everything will go to zero ? As far as I can see that would be the perfect cycle for the crypto market, from 0 to 0. Makes sense ?


I never said the same price as last cycle, percentage wise with some variations yes because that is how it has worked since 2011, so yes I'm betting on that, btc will crash from top at least 80% --> selling climax, now staying around that for more than 6 months that is yet to be seen and by the way this is a job to me since 2013, back in 2011 when I started buying and selling cryptocoins then yeah used to be a hobby. Anyway, I earned a lot of money in this just playing both sides and more importantly --> respecting cycles, i'm not a hehevean or hehell trader. The market has yet to show me that cycles are not important anymore and so far to this day, everything has been since 2011.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> that is how it has worked since 2011, so yes I'm betting on that, btc will crash from top at least 80% --> selling climax


How are you so certain the top has been reached ? You claim that "this is how it has worked since 2011" but it didn't. You're blatantly ignoring the fact we've had a price rally significantly weaker compared to previous cycles, so given that why would you believe that the crash from the top will be identical in terms of percentages if the gains weren't. If you do actually believe in BTC's cycles you'll realize this is nonsense.


----------



## Metroid (Jan 7, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> How are you so certain the top has been reached ? You claim that "this is how it has worked since 2011" but it didn't. You're blatantly ignoring the fact we've had a price rally significantly weaker compared to previous cycles, so given that why would you believe that the crash from the top will be identical in terms of percentages if the gains weren't. If you do actually believe in BTC's cycle you'll realize this is nonsense.



How many times something rises when in bullmarket is different than percentage wise when something crashes, as bitcoin rises more and more it will affect how many times it will rise every cycle, remember that people with money are only few, probably 1% in the world and most are already in stocks and other things that are not liquid, to buy something, a rich person will need to sell something else and by doing that, those things will dip or in some cases, crash.

Anyway, in 2011 bitcoin rose from 1 to 11 usd and then crashed back to 3 usd in 2011, that was 80% crash and rose 11 times, in 2013, next cycle, it rose from 3 usd(selling climax in 2011) to 1200 usd in 2013 top, that was 400 times increase in value, then it crashed to 200 usd in 2014, that was 80%(selling climax was even lower in some exchanegs, I saw lower than 100 usd on btc-e), then taking the 200 usd low in 2014, it rose to 20k in 2018, that is 100 times and then it crashed to 3k usd, that is 85%, now bitcoin rose from 3k to 69k, that is 23 times, is that the top? I have no idea, Is this a trap? I have no idea, the only thing I can bet on is, this will not be 100 times rise and sheeps expecting that will be disappointed.

I based my numbers lower than 100k because there are limits to how much bitcoin will go from here, reality is something, speculation is something else, basing bitcoin will always grow 100 times or more at this price is bs, like I said before as bitcoin price rises, the expectancy of how many times it will rise will lower significantly as it becomes more expensive, fiat money people have is not unlimited, so it will always hit a hard limit on how much bitcoin can rise every cycle, reason there are cycles is because manipulators need to capture/steal a new money every new year or so, they cant capture everything in just one go.

You may ask why bitcoin grew so much before, because it was cheap and there was the only thing to buy, we had very few coins in 2013, reason 400 times rise and lot more scammers to hype it, for example in 2021 cheap coins like shiba inu and other scamcoins rose 1000 times or more, speculation and scammers working hard to hype them, I mean what shiba inu scamcoin market cap was reached, bitcoin took 8 years for that, why is that? hype, but hype can become a real problem for btc, now sheeps have too much money on scamcoins and bitcoin is not going up because of that, people will not sell their scamcoins because they already lost too much money and they know bitcoin will not go up as much percentage wise than their scamcoins but what they dont know about it if they dont rise bitcoin then their scamcoins will not rise anymore, The only thing they can do now is hope other sheeps will be lured to buy their bags, so everything is totally ******, do you know what we have here right now? the cryptomarket itself was scammed by scammers and there are too many bagholders in debt and hoping a miracle will happen in order to save them and scammers know the real situation of the market and they are playing the sheeps, yeah there will be a last bulltrap, scammers and manipulators will once again play with sheeps and trust me sheeps will not sell their coins on this last bulltrap and then most will lose it all, because 99% of scamcoins die after a bullmarket is done, scammers and manipulators will create others scamcoins to replace them and another cycle will happen in few years to steal once again the money from new sheeps, anyway, play the cycles, wise up and be safe, dont expect miracles, it will not happen here. This is the wild west of all trading in the world, the bloodiest that has ever been.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> is that the top? I have no idea, Is this a trap? I have no idea



How curios, you have no idea about anything except for this.

Let's get down to business, are you shorting the hell out of BTC right now ? Are you putting your money where your mouth is ? This should be a no brainer, you know, a lot of sheeps and what not.


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> Is so hard to accept that cryptomarket works in cycles


That wasn't my issue with your analysis.


----------



## Metroid (Jan 7, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> How curios, you have no idea about anything except for this.
> 
> Let's get down to business, are you shorting the hell out of BTC right now ? Are you putting your money where your mouth is ? This should be a no brainer, you know, a lot of sheeps and what not.


Yeah I have 40% of my money on crypto because I still believe there will be a last bulltrap and yeah I will sell on that last bulltrap. Anyway, I know is hard for you to accept what I said even though everything I said is true, btc every cycle crashes 80% or more, that is a fact, I did not invent anything and Like I said before, It does not matter what price btc will get, it will crash 80% or more and that is when I will buy it back safely and by the way the 40% I have on crypto is not on btc.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> Yeah I have 40% of my money on crypto because I still believe there will be a last bulltrap and yeah I will sell on that last bulltrap. Anyway, I know is hard for you to accept what I said even though everything I said is true, btc every cycle crashes 80% or more, that is a fact, I did not invent anything and Like I said before, It does not matter what price btc will get, it will crash 80% or more and that is when I will buy it back safely and by the way the 40% I have on crypto is not on btc.



You did not answer my question, are you shorting BTC ? You should have the same confidence in going short on it right now as you do in buying back in later.


----------



## Metroid (Jan 7, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> You did not answer my question, are you shorting BTC ? You should have the same confidence in going short on it right now as you do in buying back in later.


Why would I short it and gain only a small amount? or maybe not even a small amount compared to ravencoin which is halving in few days and will give a lot more money than btc, no point. The last bulltrap btc will be going through is not now, will take sometime, and even if the last bulltrap comes I will also not buy btc, will buy other coins that will give me a lot more than btc, not buying scamcoins for sure, I never bought or invested in scamcoins, anyway, I will let manipulators and scammers pump btc, they know how to do that best.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> Why would I short it and gain only a small amount?



Why wouldn't you ? It's guaranteed profit. You come here and spam this thread indefinitely with "btc will hehell crash to 80% trust me dude, it's a fact, I know it's hard to accept" and you want me to believe that you wont do it because "you'd only gain a small amount" ? 80% profits averaged out on short positions is a "small" amount to you ? Yeah right, sure buddy, keep telling yourself that.



Metroid said:


> will buy other coins that will give me a lot more than btc, not buying scamcoins for sure



I am curios, what differentiates shitcoins from the rest of them that you buy. Other than the obvious fact that a genius investor like you, who wont short a coin that he claims he knows for a fact will crash 80%, can tell right away which is which.


----------



## Metroid (Jan 7, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> Why wouldn't you ? You come here and spam this thread indefinitely with "btc will hehell crash to 80% trust me dude, it's a fact, I know it's hard to accept" and you want me to believe that you wont do it because "you'd only gain a small amount" ? 80% profits averaged out on short positions is a "small" amount to you ? Yeah right, sure buddy, keep telling yourself that.
> 
> I am curios, what differentiates shitcoins from the rest of them that you buy. Other than the obvious fact that a genius investor like you, who wont short a coin that he claims he knows for a fact will crash 80%, can tell right away which is which.


But it will crash 80% from top, what has anything to do with what I do now? That is not a spam, is what I believe and I gave enough facts why I believe that. If you dont believe that then I understand you but given facts and history I say you are betting on a losing horse but hey you do you. Even if I decide to short btc now, what does it have anything to do with what I believe, what I do now is what I do now. I dont believe btc will crash 80% now, it will take sometime for that to happen.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jan 7, 2022)

Metroid said:


> Even if I decide to short btc now, what does it have anything to do with what I believe, what I do now is what I do now.


It shows that even you wont believe the nonsense you claim, if you did you'd have no problem choosing the most optimal way to make money.

Anyway, you're either a terrible troll or you genuinely can't understand why your logic is ridiculous. I have no bets, I just enjoy trying to pry away at the ludicrous stuff people in the crypto world believe in and the paradoxical logic they use to try and justify their actions.


----------



## Metroid (Jan 7, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> It shows that even you wont believe the nonsense you claim, if you did you'd have no problem choosing the most optimal way to make money.
> 
> Anyway, you're either a terrible troll or you genuinely can't understand why your logic is ridiculous. I have no bets, I just enjoy trying to pry away at the ludicrous stuff people in the crypto world believe in and the paradoxical logic they use to try and justify their actions.


If you fail to understand timing in the world of cryptos or markets in general then I have nothing else to discuss with you, have a good day.


----------



## KLiKzg (Jan 8, 2022)

Metroid said:


> That is what happens, I know is hard to accept, in 2018 eth crashed from 1440 to 80 usd, do the math and see for yourself.
> 
> Is so hard to accept that cryptomarket works in cycles?


All things work in cycles. 

But, as one things go down - others go up.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 8, 2022)

crystal ball thinking.. just imagine.. go back five years bitcoin was at 1K.. imagine spending 10k and buying 10 bitcoin..

waiting a while until it peaks at 20K.. sell at 20K your original 10K investment is now at 200K..

wait another while and buy back in when bitcoin falls to 4K.. you now have 50 bitcoin..

wait another while and sell at 60K.. you now have 3 million dollars..

waiting another while and buy back in at 30K.. you now have 100 bitcoin currently worth 4200,000 dollars..

not bad turning 10K into 4.2 million in just five years.. or is my math wrong.. he he..

okay you dont have to get these timings exactly right but nearly right would be close enough.. 

simply buying and hodling would still produce at current values around 400,000 dollars..

what happens now who the f-ck knows but long term things look good..

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 8, 2022)

trog100 said:


> crystal ball thinking.. just imagine.. go back five years bitcoin was at 1K..


I remember thinking about sinking $200.00 into BTC when it was about $20.00 per coin.

Serious regrets that I did not.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jan 8, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Serious regrets that I did not.


The reality is even if you would have bought some back then you'd have sold it as soon as it's price would have exploded.


----------



## nguyen (Jan 8, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> I remember thinking about sinking $200.00 into BTC when it was about $20.00 per coin.
> 
> Serious regrets that I did not.



If I had the power of foresight, I would be buying lottery instead of bitcoin


----------



## trog100 (Jan 8, 2022)

nguyen said:


> If I had the power of foresight, I would be buying lottery instead of bitcoin



its not entirely random luck though is it.. bitcoin does have a fairly predictable pattern to it.. the first one being is.. if you buy and hold for long enough you make money..

the second one being that if you can roughly predict the cycle highs and lows you can make even more money..

trog


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Jan 8, 2022)

nguyen said:


> If I had the power of foresight, I would be buying lottery instead of bitcoin


Yeh some of us do but the ten pounds I've won still = massive losses over the years sooooo.

Gambling is the answer!?, your just trolling the thread as ever, I look forward to hearing some really great reply about crypto gambling etc.

If you have no interest could you not just, not bother posting?.


----------



## nguyen (Jan 8, 2022)

TheoneandonlyMrK said:


> Yeh some of us do but the ten pounds I've won still = massive losses over the years sooooo.
> 
> Gambling is the answer!?, your just trolling the thread as ever, I look forward to hearing some really great reply about crypto gambling etc.
> 
> If you have no interest could you not just, not bother posting?.



Do you have an agenda against me? does it involve you anyhow in this conversation? are you the forum admin or something?





Seems like I'm more involved than you are.

Also I don't see you posting anything in this thread, but once I posted and there you are


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Jan 8, 2022)

nguyen said:


> Do you have an agenda against me? does it involve you anyhow in this conversation? are you the forum admin or something?
> View attachment 231687
> 
> Seems like I'm more involved than you are.
> ...


Oh, another picked on peep.

I scarcely reply ever to yourself, find the last one for example.

I read and when someone says what I agree with I thumbs up it(like most of a @R-T-B  posts), that's how that works, it saves me posting the same shit.

And I'm more invested, but I'm not showing either a real figure or a Googled one to prove that, I mine ,light too btw.

So have at it, you reply, I can reply that's also how forums work and you won't shue me off with that shit.

You on topic now then, no ,not yet eh.


----------



## nguyen (Jan 8, 2022)

TheoneandonlyMrK said:


> Yeh some of us do but the ten pounds I've won still = massive losses over the years sooooo.
> 
> Gambling is the answer!?, your just trolling the thread as ever, I look forward to hearing some really great reply about crypto gambling etc.
> 
> If you have no interest could you not just, not bother posting?.



Obviously you replied to me unsolicited, you didn't stop at "I read and when someone says what I agree with I thumbs up it".

So yeah, looks like personal harrassment to me. 

Attacking others are not really on topic either, but you do you.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 8, 2022)

TheoneandonlyMrK said:


> Yeh some of us do but the ten pounds I've won still = massive losses over the years sooooo.
> 
> Gambling is the answer!?, your just trolling the thread as ever, I look forward to hearing some really great reply about crypto gambling etc.
> 
> If you have no interest could you not just, not bother posting?.



i live in the UK where gambling used to be frowned upon.. until they invented the national lottery that is.. he he

i am proud of the fact i have never ever bought a ticket.. i recon i am a pretty rare example.. it has been called a tax on fools.. i tend to agree with this..

trog


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Jan 8, 2022)

nguyen said:


> Obviously you replied to me unsolicited, you didn't stop at "I read and when someone says what I agree with I thumbs up it".
> 
> So yeah, looks like personal harrassment to me.
> 
> Attacking others are not really on topic either, but you do you.


It's not the royal mail it's a public forum.

You past out a snarky remark unsolicited?!.

"

If I had the power of foresight, I would be buying lottery instead of bitcoin "

Remember

I replied as is the way on a Public forum.

Why your trying to dramatize the interaction is clearly because your original point had a nothing to do with the thread, because as ever you were trolling.

You do you.


----------



## sepheronx (Jan 8, 2022)

This is pathetic for a tech forum honestly.  I've been here a long time. Only in recent years have I become a constant poster but now I remember why I left years ago. And even then, there were far better posters than now.  All I see are posts that insult others for choices they make, talk down or just outright insult people for not sharing same opinions, demonizing people who invest in certain tech, etc.  An older mod that asked about crypto was attacked and he said he was going to clean up the place, but said mod vanished.

Good luck to those who still have decency.  To the rest of you, try to act better and see things in others perspective and not just your own.


----------



## nguyen (Jan 8, 2022)

TheoneandonlyMrK said:


> It's not the royal mail it's a public forum.
> 
> You past out a snarky remark unsolicited?!.
> 
> ...



Do you get to decide who is trolling and who is not?

I made a snarky remark at someone who regret a past decision (which in itself is funny) and he was fine with it, you made a full on unsolicited personal attack against me pal.


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Jan 8, 2022)

nguyen said:


> Do you get to decide who is trolling and who is not?
> 
> I made a snarky remark at someone who regret a past decision (which in itself is funny) and he was fine with it, you made a full on unsolicited personal attack against me pal.


Your dramma is boring, bye.

Pal.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 8, 2022)

"Galstaff casts a friendship spell on both of you!"

@nguyen, @TheoneandonlyMrK


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 8, 2022)

nguyen said:


> If I had the power of foresight, I would be buying lottery instead of bitcoin


Thing is, I had educated foresight.  I knew it was going to take off, didn't see any other way.  But I bought a nice i7 980x with my money at the time instead.

Somewhere in my house too was a 1btc paper wallet...  but I think it may have been recycled.  Looked for that thing forever.  It's printed on waterproof paper, so holding out hope.


----------



## Ahhzz (Jan 8, 2022)

Alright Children. Find yourselves not attacking each other, or find yourselves taking a vacation.  Enough.


----------



## phill (Jan 8, 2022)

trog100 said:


> crystal ball thinking.. just imagine.. go back five years bitcoin was at 1K.. imagine spending 10k and buying 10 bitcoin..
> 
> waiting a while until it peaks at 20K.. sell at 20K your original 10K investment is now at 200K..
> 
> ...


Likewise mate, I'm just waiting with popcorn to see what sort of mess this all comes out in, we've been through it all before and I'm sure we'll be through it all again soon enough!! 

I can't argue in the times I've been able to do the mining with a mate of mine, we have always come out winning but sometimes not quite nearly as much as we could have but sometimes and some people I guess are just never meant to get that wealthy...  It's a shame, I'd really like an RS6 and another house right now!!


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 9, 2022)

sepheronx said:


> This is pathetic for a tech forum honestly.


Then you are welcome to unwatch the thread and not participate.



phill said:


> Likewise mate, I'm just waiting with popcorn to see what sort of mess this all comes out in, we've been through it all before and I'm sure we'll be through it all again soon enough!!


The trends have been strange in the last few months. Dips keep happening where gains should have taken place and vice-verse. It's been weird, but very interesting to watch.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Jan 9, 2022)

Crypto is just another secondary market that big money investors play in now. That's why it's started so heavily mirroring the stock market (which is the opposite of what the crypto purists want you to believe). It's not FUD to say the markets as a whole suck right now, and it's not hard to figure out why.

This is just going to be a bear month while investors react to the FED rates and covid fear. Unless you think the global/US economy is about to fully collapse, you hodl your crypto and stocks right now and continue to DCA in with your typical investments.

The loud doom and gloom crypto people right now are the people who aren't making money on the pump and dump shit coins. Crypto has made a lot of really stupid people feel really smart because they "day trade crypto" now, but did so in an absurd bull market on coins that literally have nothing backing them besides memes.


----------



## nguyen (Jan 9, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Thing is, I had educated foresight.  I knew it was going to take off, didn't see any other way.  But I bought a nice i7 980x with my money at the time instead.
> 
> Somewhere in my house too was a 1btc paper wallet...  but I think it may have been recycled.  Looked for that thing forever.  It's printed on waterproof paper, so holding out hope.



Well I bought my first apartment in 2011 for 80K, sold it it 2017 for 150K, bought another apartment for 150K, now it's 250K . Sure the gain with BTC would be bigger but it feels like a huge gamble.

A close friend asked me to invest in mining rigs with him back in 2017 but of course I didn't have any money after buying the new apartment. 

Now would bitcoin have taken off if the pandemic didn't happen? Even trillion dollars tech companies couldn't predict where crypto will go, I'm sure as heck cannot either.


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 9, 2022)

nguyen said:


> Now would bitcoin have taken off if the pandemic didn't happen?


It took off well before the pandemic.

I can't predict where it'll go now either, but it was easy as heck to see it was going to shoot past $20.00 if you considered tech trends.


----------



## KLiKzg (Jan 9, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> I remember thinking about sinking $200.00 into BTC when it was about $20.00 per coin.
> 
> Serious regrets that I did not.


Well, on 20k older Maxwell & Pascal cards will not be anymore profitable.

Around  ~10k, even Turing & Volta will not be profitable.

& then only Ampere is in the game...


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 9, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> Well, on 20k older Maxwell & Pascal cards will not be anymore profitable.
> 
> Around  ~10k, even Turing & Volta will not be profitable.
> 
> & then only Ampere is in the game...


Not sure what you are honestly trying to say.  Bitcoin price has nothing to do with profitability as a.) network diff will adjust and b.) no one mines bitcoin with gpus anymore.

the biggest threat to gpu mining is the upcoming eth diff bomb in anticipation for the PoS switch, not falling prices.

also what you quoted really has nothing to do with the falling bitcoin price.


----------



## KLiKzg (Jan 10, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Not sure what you are honestly trying to say.  Bitcoin price has nothing to do with profitability as a.) network diff will adjust and b.) no one mines bitcoin with gpus anymore.
> 
> the biggest threat to gpu mining is the upcoming eth diff bomb in anticipation for the PoS switch, not falling prices.
> 
> also what you quoted really has nothing to do with the falling bitcoin price.


Well, weather we want it or not...Bitcoin directs the price of many other crypto. When it lost 1/3 of portfolio & plummeted down to 36k€ - many other cryptos went with it.

So, you might ignore it...you might not like it...but Bitcoin directs the price.


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 10, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> So, you might ignore it...you might not like it...but Bitcoin directs the price.


Yeah, and so?  People were making money when bitcoin was the only crypto and it was only worth $20.  The price is irrelevant because difficulty adjusts adaptively to the amount mining.  Price is not an indicator of mining profitability, more trading profitability.


----------



## KLiKzg (Jan 11, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Yeah, and so?  People were making money when bitcoin was the only crypto and it was only worth $20.  The price is irrelevant because difficulty adjusts adaptively to the amount mining.  Price is not an indicator of mining profitability, more trading profitability.


Well, for mining you need electricity - unless you are hacking in illegally. So to make crypto, no matter which algorithm or coins, you need to pay something back.

The more crypto is worth, there is more return on investment in electricity. If the crypto is worth pennies, nobody would have mine it. & only then, we get to market of supply & demand (trades).

Seems like you got your saw backwards.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 11, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> Well, for mining you need electricity - unless you are hacking in illegally. So to make crypto, no matter which algorithm or coins, you need to pay something back.
> 
> The more crypto is worth, there is more return on investment in electricity. If the crypto is worth pennies, nobody would have mine it. & only then, we get to market of supply & demand (trades).
> 
> Seems like you got your saw backwards.


While you make a fair point, it seems clear you misunderstood RTB. I suspect there might be a language barrier problem at play here...


----------



## KLiKzg (Jan 11, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> While you make a fair point, it seems clear you misunderstood RTB. I suspect there might be a language barrier problem at play here...


Well, no. As I do not look crypto in a way of difficulty. Some would argue you should.

But I look it in gain & spent equals profit.
A) You gain some amount of crypto - which is worth some $. If the crypto plummets, even ETH will not be profitable for mining (even though I do calculate everything in BTC, as those are the driving wheels of the crypto industry)
B) You spent electricity to make it & you have investment to pay out in some amount of months.
When you subtract A - B, you get profit. Either you are above zero or below.

Just keepin' it plain & simple!


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 11, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> Well, for mining you need electricity - unless you are hacking in illegally. So to make crypto, no matter which algorithm or coins, you need to pay something back.
> 
> The more crypto is worth, there is more return on investment in electricity. If the crypto is worth pennies, nobody would have mine it. & only then, we get to market of supply & demand (trades).
> 
> Seems like you got your saw backwards.


I think you need to do more homework on this.  I'm well aware of all the above.  It changes nothing about adaptive difficulty and earnings.



KLiKzg said:


> But I look it in gain & spent equals profit


And this is where you are falling short.  The coin gained per x electricity is not fixed, and is intentionally adaptive.

Case in point:  I made my best earnings on crypto way before the "all time high."  My earnings during the "ATH" were actually fairly poor.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 12, 2022)

bitcoin is trending up again.. near 44K with eth near 3.4K..

once a bottom forms in this case 40K people start buying again.. or so it seems.. 

trog


----------



## cvaldes (Jan 12, 2022)

trog100 said:


> once a bottom forms in this case 40K people start buying again.. or so it seems..


LOL, you don't understand the fundamental concept of free market, do you?

There are always buyers as long as the volume isn't zero. If the volume is 1, that means there was one transaction (one buyer, one seller).

Prices fall when there are more sellers than buyers. Prices stagnate when there are an equal numbers of buyers and sellers (support and resistance). Prices go up when there are more buyers than sellers.

There's no one arbitrarily setting the price of cryptos. The prices are determined by the transactions between buyers and sellers.

If BTC bottoms out at $40,000.00 it's because no one wants to pay $39,999.99. It goes up to $40,000.01 when someone want to pay that. And it'll go up to $40,000.02 when someone else want to pay that. Et cetera ad nauseam.

It's no different than buying bushels of apples, barrels of oil, or Class B shares of Berkshire-Hathaway.

One can use the same tools such as technical analysis (trend, momentum, volatility, volume), charting, etc. as equities to look for signals for potential price direction changes. Anyone who actively trades crypto and uses technical analysis should not be surprised by price direction change in the past 24 hours. No one can accurately predict when a given tradeable commodity will hit rock bottom, but thoughtful use of these type of trading tools will give you an advantage.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 13, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> LOL, you don't understand the fundamental concept of free market, do you?
> 
> There are always buyers as long as the volume isn't zero. If the volume is 1, that means there was one transaction (one buyer, one seller).
> 
> ...



with crypto its more about will it go up or will it go down than about what people are actually prepared to pay.. hence the need for a "bottom" to form or at least what potential buyers see as a bottom..

trog


----------



## cvaldes (Jan 13, 2022)

trog100 said:


> with crypto its more about will it go up or will it go down than about what people are actually prepared.. hence the need for a "bottom" to form or at least what potential buyer see as a bottom..


What are you talking about? It's pretty much the same in all free markets whether it be rice, tulip bulbs, shares of GE, or cryptocurrencies.

A buyer looks at the seller's asking price and says, "Yes, I will pay that" or "No, I won't."

Look at the stupid PC GPU market. People are paying 3x-4x MSRPs from mid-2020 because they WANT to. I bought a Sapphire Pulse Radeon RX 550 2GB card for $65 in September 2020 (below the $79 launch price). Those cards are going for 3x USED now. That's because the number of buyers exceeds the number of sellers.

When should someone buy an RX 550? When it drops to $200? $175? $150? $100? $80? $79? $65? $60?

Trust me, I bought a pricey GPU (the one described in my system specs). Would I preferred to have paid less for it? Yes, absolutely. Did I pay less for it than most other buyers of the same device? Absolutely. (Thank you Newegg Shuffle.)

You make zero sense.


----------



## Mescalamba (Jan 13, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Then you are welcome to unwatch the thread and not participate.
> 
> 
> The trends have been strange in the last few months. Dips keep happening where gains should have taken place and vice-verse. It's been weird, but very interesting to watch.



Dunno, apart rare occassions, it follows what my TA says it will probably do. I have a good laugh, when ppl say BTC dropped due Kazakhstan, or China (any) country banning this or that, or FED. Cause it mostly just does what I would expect it to do. And since Im fairly positive I cannot foresee future, there is probably plenty of folks which mistake reflection in the pond for stars.

Basically only time BTC dropped due real world situation was COVID start, where it unfortunately (or fortunately for some) followed stock and pretty much all other markets in nose dive.



cvaldes said:


> What are you talking about? It's pretty much the same in all free markets whether it be rice, tulip bulbs, shares of GE, or cryptocurrencies.
> 
> A buyer looks at the seller's asking price and says, "Yes, I will pay that" or "No, I won't."
> 
> ...



Fairly sure he means "bottom" forming on a graph. You know that "sign" that it will most likely go up, not down.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 21, 2022)

BTC and ETH are taking a nose dive at the moment. Anyone knows why? Any major movement or sell off?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 21, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> BTC and ETH are taking a nose dive at the moment. Anyone knows why? Any major movement or sell off?


Those two are not alone, lot's of them are on the decline. No idea why either. Nothing has happened that suggests a crash...


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 21, 2022)

Delphi Digital
					

Delphi Digital Members Portal




					members.delphidigital.io
				




Seems this is a good guess as to why?



> *Treasury yields have been picking up considerably over the last few weeks and risk assets have reacted negatively,* with the $41-42k levels currently being defended. BTC briefly breached the $40K psychological level on the Jan. 10 before buyers rushed to defend Sept. lows, as we highlighted here.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Jan 21, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Seems this is a good guess as to why?



Did you hear the Russians are thinking about banning Crypto on their home soil? This might be adding to the dilemma.

Bitcoin Slips Below Crucial $40K Level, Taking Ethereum, Dogecoin Down With It: US Treasuries, Russia, Outflows And More That's Weighing - Bitcoin - United States Dollar ($BTC) | Benzinga

"On the news front, Russia’s central bank, the *Bank of Russia*, called for a ban on cryptocurrencies"


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 21, 2022)

Possible.  Certainly fits Russia as an authoritarian state, and is likewise a large market.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 21, 2022)

i think bitcoin and eth are following the stock markets.. there is a general fear in the markets.. it dosnt take much to spook them.. deep down people are "expecting" a crash.. people are selling at the first signs of it happening.. 

there is no real change in the fundamentals.. people are just scared the everything bubble is about to pop.. "maybe".. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 21, 2022)

Outback Bronze said:


> Did you hear the Russians are thinking about banning Crypto on their home soil? This might be adding to the dilemma.
> 
> Bitcoin Slips Below Crucial $40K Level, Taking Ethereum, Dogecoin Down With It: US Treasuries, Russia, Outflows And More That's Weighing - Bitcoin - United States Dollar ($BTC) | Benzinga
> 
> "On the news front, Russia’s central bank, the *Bank of Russia*, called for a ban on cryptocurrencies"


This would not be surprising. The Russians would do it so the question is, will they.



trog100 said:


> i think bitcoin and eth are following the stock markets..


The stock markets haven't tanked like cryptocoin is.


trog100 said:


> there is a general fear in the markets..


Nonsense. Stock markets are stable.


trog100 said:


> there is no real change in the fundamentals..


Are you paying attention to what's going on?


----------



## trog100 (Jan 21, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> This would not be surprising. The Russians would do it so the question is, will they.
> 
> 
> The stock markets haven't tanked like cryptocoin is.
> ...


 
what do you think is going on lex.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 21, 2022)

trog100 said:


> what do you think is going on lex..
> 
> trog


No clue, but I can tell you that it's not the stock market.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 21, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> No clue, but I can tell you that it's not the stock market.


 you can..?? the stock market is a sea of red or hadnt you noticed.. 

panic is the word i think.. 

trog


----------



## 15th Warlock (Jan 21, 2022)

"Cryptocurrencies leave me increasingly feeling like the boy watching the naked emperor passing in procession. So many significant people and institutions are admiring his incredible coat, which is so technically complicated and superior that normal people simply can't comprehend it and must take it on trust. I would not."

              -Jeremy Grantham, Jan 20, 2022


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 22, 2022)

trog100 said:


> the stock market is a sea of red or hadnt you noticed..


You and I are seeing things very differently.


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Jan 22, 2022)

Typical post Christmas lull, a lot of people cashed in on a good year cos their skint, it's going to pick up end of the month but God knows what will happen until then.


----------



## Mescalamba (Jan 22, 2022)

Why it goes down.

Well it completed cycle and its time for new one, this is either extended correction from last cycle, or next cycle is simply direction down.

People still don't grasp fully difference between completely controlled markets as stock and completely free market, which is crypto. In free market you have thing called "natural balance", which bit like law of thermodynamics means that it cannot go infinitely in one direction, but for each cycle up, it requires correction.

Regulated markets are manipulated same way as global economics to pretend infinitive growth, which is why you have inflation from hell right now.

Crypto is pretty much like nature itself in virtual reality. So for healthy growth, you get healthy corrections.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 22, 2022)

healthy is not a word i would use.. the whole lot is driven by human emotions.. the two main emotions are greed and fear.. nether of these two emotions are healthy..

excessive greed can drive up the prices excessively..  excessive fear can cause the whole lot to come tumbling down excessively..

there is a cycle but its far from a healthy one.. currently fear is in control of the markets.. how excessive this fear is is yet to be seen..

trog


----------



## KLiKzg (Jan 22, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Possible.  Certainly fits Russia as an authoritarian state, and is likewise a large market.


It is 11% of the mining capability. So that is an interest.
Link: https://www.rt.com/business/546744-crypto-ban-russia-explained/

But do not know, how much those 11% mined. Estimations are about $5 billion. Probably people are getting rid of their cryptos.
Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...ng-cryptocurrencies-crypto-mining-2022-01-20/

For sure, they are just raising the paper money value with this. Now that the war is almost immanent in Ukraine.
Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589

Or, the Duma wants to lower the price of crypto before acquiring it in Russian central bank:
Link: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/202...s-duma-want-to-legalize-crypto-mining-report/


----------



## caroline! (Jan 22, 2022)

Thank God I got out the rabbit hole at 50K and went all in for USDC then cash. Sold 80% kept 20 to see what happens.

I was told I could get into regular stocks with "as little as" 5 grand but honestly I have no idea how that market works, all I see are graphs and weird number codes I have no idea what they mean, plus they ask for a ton of personal data that's for sure. Friend of mine was deep into it and went as far as getting a ultrawide curved monitor just to be able to "see the graphs better" lol



KLiKzg said:


> For sure, they are just raising the paper money value with this. Now that the war is almost immanent in Ukraine.


MSM has been warning about a war since what, 2009? and it never happens, same with North Korea and their missiles that "could reach America" or Iran's nuclear warheads.


----------



## Mescalamba (Jan 22, 2022)

caroline.v said:


> Thank God I got out the rabbit hole at 50K and went all in for USDC then cash. Sold 80% kept 20 to see what happens.
> 
> I was told I could get into regular stocks with "as little as" 5 grand but honestly I have no idea how that market works, all I see are graphs and weird number codes I have no idea what they mean, plus they ask for a ton of personal data that's for sure. Friend of mine was deep into it and went as far as getting a ultrawide curved monitor just to be able to "see the graphs better" lol
> 
> ...


Getting ultrawide makes perfect sense, thought about same. Advantage is also you can have at least 2 graphs open and trade on third one. Perspective (view of all things) is really important. But it depends on strategy. Mine works even on iPad. 

Stocks are same as crypto, just a lot less volatility (altho lately its not entirely true). Basically everything that can be traded is more or less similar. At least from technical analysis side of things.

Only real difference is that crypto is driven purely by price without much external interference (which has short time impact anyway), while stocks, currencies, comodities are very much driven by real world, so one needs not only graphs, but also good and fast info about current development of whatever he is trading. With exception of trading in really small timeframes (minute scalping and such).


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 23, 2022)

Mescalamba said:


> Regulated markets are manipulated same way as global economics to pretend infinitive growth, which is why you have inflation from hell right now.



The last couple of decades have been below the norm for annual inflation.  We're higher than that average right now, and it seems huge (and is definitely significant) because it was low for so long.  But we are (so far) a long way from "inflation from hell".  What's the annualized rate at the moment, 5%/yr?  Hyperinflation sees that or more in a month.


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 23, 2022)

caroline.v said:


> MSM has been warning about a war since what, 2009? and it never happens


Where were you when Crimerea was invaded?  It's almost certain to happen...  again.



caroline.v said:


> same with North Korea and their missiles that "could reach America" or Iran's nuclear warheads.


All of which have reached that capability?  You know you don't actually have to nuke someone to prove it?

Oh wait, this is cryptocoin discussion, not news or whatever.  My bad.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 23, 2022)

well.. bitcoin seems to have stopped crashing down around 35K.. eth is around 2.5K.. is this a temporary pause on the way down or a bottom.. nobody knows for sure..

i await the stock markets opening for this coming week.. 

trog


----------



## KLiKzg (Jan 23, 2022)

caroline.v said:


> MSM has been warning about a war since what, 2009? and it never happens, same with North Korea and their missiles that "could reach America" or Iran's nuclear warheads.


Well, maybe we in Europe got more info.   

& Iran tried to make nuclear warheads & maybe they did succeeded. But not likely, as Israel would prevented that with pre-emptive strike. Check code-name "Stuxnet", as it is a public story now. Great stuff! 
Maybe you were referring to Iraq? Iraq was another story.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 23, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Where were you when Crimerea was invaded? It's almost certain to happen... again.


Not unless Russia wants to be involved in the large war since WW2. And they will loose. Europe will defend Ukraine and America will back up Europe. Russia knows this. They very unlikely to be so unwise as to invade Ukraine.

However, we're a bit off topic. Let's rope ourselves in folks.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 24, 2022)

ETH is down another 12% and BTC is down almost 8%. I smell another crash happening. Where is the bottom?


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 24, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> ETH is down another 12% and BTC is down almost 8%. I smell another crash happening. Where is the bottom?



It's more than 50% off the last big peak (which happens to be the ATH) in November.  That feels like a crash already, but like I've said before, I'm kind of an idiot about this stuff.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 24, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> It's more than 50% off the last big peak (which happens to be the ATH) in November.  That feels like a crash already, but like I've said before, I'm kind of an idiot about this stuff.


Yeah, you are right. Maybe the bottom is near then.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 24, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Yeah, you are right. Maybe the bottom is near then.



At the same time, who the eff knows?  The source I used here started tracking in '11, where it opened at $11 then promptly bottomed at a bit over $2. 2015 sent it from $1100 to less than $200, then CY2018 saw a slide from $19k to $3k. It landed at $30k when the $64k bubble popped last April. The rules are ostensibly a bit different now with so much big money involved, but a surface-level look suggests that an 80% drop is not out of the question, which would place the bottom at around $14k. I don't think it'll go that low, but have no predictions beyond that, nor anything to base them upon.

EDIT:  Something I just noticed was that the first two seriously big peaks (2014, 2017) hit late in the year, with the subsequent decline taking almost exactly a year.  Last ATH was November.  Time to see if coincidence becomes a pattern?


----------



## trog100 (Jan 24, 2022)

crypto is at the mercy of the stock markets and they look pretty scary..

trog


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 24, 2022)

trog100 said:


> crypto is at the mercy of the stock markets and they look pretty scary..
> 
> trog



IDK, BTC and the DJI had similar motion at several points, but the current BTC slide preceded that of the DJI by a decent bit this time around, and there was no mirror to the spring '21 BTC correction at all.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 24, 2022)

trog100 said:


> crypto is at the mercy of the stock markets and they look pretty scary..
> 
> trog


Sorry man, that's just not correct. Stocks are fine. No indications of a crash, at all.


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 24, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Sorry man, that's just not correct. Stocks are fine. No indications of a crash, at all.


Nasdaq and S&P 500 have entered bear market today.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 24, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Nasdaq and S&P 500 have entered bear market today.


I'm not seeing this.








						Market Data Center - MarketWatch
					

View the MarketWatch summary of the U.S., Europe and Asia stock markets, currencies, cryptocurrencies, rates and futures.




					www.marketwatch.com
				



Today was a brisk trading day for both. 
Hell even CNN disagrees;


			U.S. Stock Market Data - Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P500 - CNNMoney
		


Where are you looking for info?


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 25, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> I'm not seeing this.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You are late to the party. Dow was down more than a 1000 points before people were buying the dip in a major way. S&P 500 is down more than 12% from its all time high.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 25, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Dow was down more than a 1000 points


1000 points out of 34k is just not a big drop. If it drops 4000 we might have something to worry about.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 25, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> 1000 points out of 34k is just not a big drop. If it drops 4000 we might have something to worry about.



anyways the stock markets are back in the green today.. bitcoin has followed them.. up from 33K to 36K.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jan 25, 2022)

trog100 said:


> anyways the stock markets are back in the green today.. bitcoin has followed them.. up from 33K to 36K..
> 
> trog


The stock market finished in the green yesterday. The fact that crypto is up today is likely just a coincidence. Your theory about them performing in harmony with each other has never shown any merit.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 26, 2022)

bitcoin seems to have hit a bottom at 33K and now seems to be climbing out.. bitcoin now at 38K with eth at 2.6K..

the recent correlation between bitcoin and the stock market has been noted by more than me.. but my general feeling is if the stock market go down bitcoin will go down with them..

i am expecting a stock market down turn.. its been artificially pumped up by fed money printing for a long time now..

trog

ps.. i dont own any stocks.. i do own some gold and silver plus some crypto.. not a lot but some..


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 26, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin seems to have hit a bottom at 33K and now seems to be climbing out.. bitcoin now at 38K with eth at 2.6K..
> 
> the recent correlation between bitcoin and the stock market has been noted by more than me.. but my general feeling is if the stock market go down bitcoin will go down with them..
> 
> ...



Define "recent".  If you're talking over the last year, BTC is up 25% or so:



... and the Dow is up less than 20%:




BTC's May dive and its slide from early Nov to this week aren't reflected in the DJI.  The climb in the Dow from 12/1 to 1/4 wasn't matched by BTC.  Sure, broadly speaking, most markets move together over the long term.  Some of the peaks and valleys match up, but unless I'm looking in the wrong places (or looking at it wrong), short-interval motion of BTC isn't linked terribly closely to that of stocks.


----------



## cvaldes (Jan 26, 2022)

The Dow 30 is the most asinine market index.

The problem with comparing any cryptocurrency with any market index is the fact that cryptos are wildly volatile so seeing any patterns in the curves is difficult for the less experienced investor or armchair ANALyst.

However cryptos are *not* immune to macro trends in the markets.




Here's ETH in blue (TTM). Very volatile.

The green line is the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC aka COMPX). Like I mentioned, the lower volatility of the market index makes any pattern recognition difficult.

The purple line is a 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF. The Nasdaq-100 is the top 100 (a subset) of the Nasdaq Composite excluding financial corporations, so really tech heavy. There is notably positive correlation with the Nasdaq-100.

Cryptos aren't islands in the investment universe. They are still subject to macro factors like natural disasters, insurrection, war, interest rates, politics, etc.

They are still very immature as financial instruments.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jan 26, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> The Dow 30 is the most asinine market index.
> 
> The problem with comparing any cryptocurrency with any market index is the fact that cryptos are wildly volatile so seeing any patterns in the curves is difficult for the less experienced investor or armchair ANALyst.
> 
> ...



Thank you for actually providing some context (ANALyst dig notwithstanding ). As you've rightly surmised, I don't really know what I'm talking about, which is one reason why I'm here. But what I'm trying to get at, in an apparently roundabout way, is the root of Trog's numerous mentions of crypto value vs. that of stocks. Yeah, they'll eventually all rise and fall more-or-less together on the same market "tides". But that's almost a tautology; both are traded on markets, so will both respond to market conditions, and outside of short-term deviations and swings, follow broader long-term trends together. Is that useful information, though? That can be said of any commodity.


----------



## trog100 (Jan 26, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Thank you for actually providing some context (ANALyst dig notwithstanding ). As you've rightly surmised, I don't really know what I'm talking about, which is one reason why I'm here. But what I'm trying to get at, in an apparently roundabout way, is the root of Trog's numerous mentions of crypto value vs. that of stocks. Yeah, they'll eventually all rise and fall more-or-less together on the same market "tides". But that's almost a tautology; both are traded on markets, so will both respond to market conditions, and outside of short-term deviations and swings, follow broader long-term trends together. Is that useful information, though? That can be said of any commodity.



i make short up to date posts on current trends.. i sometimes mention gold and the stock markets.. this is just my oppinion nothing else.. if people doubt my oppinion they are free to do their own research and reach their own conclusions.. what i dont do is produce source evidence.. its all to easy to pick and choose source evidence to suit ones own viewpoint.. which does make it kind of pointless..

gold by the way has gone up over the last few days.. bitcoin seems to have leveled off at around 38K.. where it goes from now is anybodies guess..

trog

ps.. well bitcoin was looking good up at 38K until the stock markets tanked and dragged it down.. its now at 35K.. 

ps 2.. gold has now dropped a fair bit.. there isnt much sense in these markets at the moment.. anything could happen.. bitcoin is currently at 36K..


----------



## Chomiq (Jan 28, 2022)

Bitcoin and stock market atm:


----------



## trog100 (Jan 28, 2022)

the none US stock markets are all in the red.. bitcoin is still holding at 36K.. this may change when the US markets open later in the day.. it will be interesting to see how things co-relate.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Jan 30, 2022)

sunday morning.. bitcoin now at 38K with eth at 2.6K.. purely my own oppinion but i think 33K was the bottom.. maybe "hope" is clouding my judgement one can never tell.. he he

trog


----------



## Chomiq (Jan 30, 2022)

trog100 said:


> sunday morning.. bitcoin now at 38K with eth at 2.6K.. purely my own oppinion but i think 33K was the bottom.. maybe "hope" is clouding my judgement one can never tell.. he he
> 
> trog


There no "bottom", your last "bottom" was 42K


----------



## trog100 (Jan 30, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> There no "bottom", your last "bottom" was 42K



i was wrong.. he he.. my thinking was that the previous bottom was around 30K (allowing for a long term upward trend) the next one would higher at 40K.. 33k is still higher but not quite as optimistically higher as 40K.. 

by "bottom" i mean the point where a downward trend reverses and turns into an upward trend.. this is my "bias" showing.. i am firmly convinced that long term bitcoin can only go up.. 

trog


----------



## heliosgnosis (Jan 30, 2022)

Liquid Cool said:


> RandallFlagg...
> 
> Your medium term projection chart....
> 
> ...


This current bitcoin price dip is the 8th time since it came into our world.  And BTW bitcoins ebbs and flows are all to do with the false value so placed on the USD fiat paper dollar and any other currency on earth that so has currency based on nothing "good word and honor are not things that exist or can be trusted in todays world" Those who have altered things have run out of options to make paper dollars appear to have a store of wealth,  before they just offset to products to which the US made endless troves of,  that was just after Nixon left office though and China was not what we and the world turned it into to so take the place of number one maker for all things consumers want and a lot the do not even need but will want lol. That said every time and it has been 8 times bitcoin dove 25-55% in value,  within a couple months of each a new cycle began and it mooned all 8 times.  Bitcoin up in value means DOLLARS BADDDDDD and valueless, interest rates out of control all consumers not spending and scared of what is coming along with a nice stock market deep dive........ Bitcoin down means paper money is under wraps and the illusion is hardset for the time being to keep the BS game rolling for those that think they have the right to rule us.  BTW USD paper dollar based on BS not gold or silver or anything with some sort of real world value happened on Christmas day in the early 20th century on a island just off of the state of Georga in the SE US.... I am being vague due to the nature of the federal reserve taking up power and hold of that little piece they own of their debt slaves AKA us citizens of ALL nations.  Why did I type all this??  To help those seeking to be woken up to have the means to know where to start to slap them awake in seconds when they discover all above is truth above all truths


----------



## R-T-B (Jan 30, 2022)

heliosgnosis said:


> BTW USD paper dollar based on BS not gold or silver or anything with some sort of real world value happened on Christmas day in the early 20th century on a island just off of the state of Georga in the SE US.... I am being vague due to the nature of the federal reserve taking up power and hold of that little piece they own of their debt slaves AKA us citizens of ALL nations.  Why did I type all this??  To help those seeking to be woken up to have the means to know where to start to slap them awake in seconds when they discover all above is truth above all truths


I swear stuff like this makes me wonder why I ever backed up Crypto...  I thought it could be something, but it's become like the 4chan of currencies.  

You aren't helping the cause with walls of nutty text like this in a price thread...


----------



## LFaWolf (Jan 30, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i was wrong.. he he.. my thinking was that the previous bottom was around 30K (allowing for a long term upward trend) the next one would higher at 40K.. 33k is still higher but not quite as optimistically higher as 40K..
> 
> by "bottom" i mean the point where a downward trend reverses and turns into an upward trend.. this is my "bias" showing.. i am firmly convinced that long term bitcoin can only go up..
> 
> trog


I don’t think there is enough time passed to establish $33k is the bottom. If it stays above $33k for a month or more then I would believe it.


----------



## trog100 (Feb 1, 2022)

bitcoin now at 39K with eth at 2.8K .. the stock markets are all nicely in the green.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Feb 3, 2022)

thursday morning.. bitcoin dropped down to 36K with eth at 2.6K... the stock markets are all in the red.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Feb 4, 2022)

bitcoin and eth seem to be decoupling from the stock markets.. bitcoin up near 38K with eth at 2.8K.. eth is up 8% on the day.. interesting if it continues..

trog

ps.. yep.. definitely a decouple going on.. bitcoin and eth are on the rise..

ps.. 2 some of the facebook money moving into crypto maybe.. ?


----------



## trog100 (Feb 5, 2022)

saturday morning with bitcoin up at 41K and eth at 3K... something interesting is going on..

trog


----------



## LFaWolf (Feb 7, 2022)

BTC is now over $44k and ETH over $3.1k. Question for the miners out there - did mining profit fluctuate a lot when BTC was down to $33k and now on the uptrend?


----------



## trog100 (Feb 7, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> BTC is now over $44k and ETH over $3.1k. Question for the miners out there - did mining profit fluctuate a lot when BTC was down to $33k and now on the uptrend?


eth mining profits dropped right off but are now on the up-tick again.. nowhere near back to where they were though..

gpu prices have been dropping.. 

trog


----------



## toilet pepper (Feb 7, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> BTC is now over $44k and ETH over $3.1k. Question for the miners out there - did mining profit fluctuate a lot when BTC was down to $33k and now on the uptrend?


I only have 2 cards that are mining. They already paid themselves several times over last year. I think the profit flactuating is mostly with Nicehash. I've been mining the same amount of coins for the past few weeks and the main difference is if I would cash out at a loss or not. At thins point I'm just keeping the coins and eating the power cost.


----------



## LFaWolf (Feb 8, 2022)

toilet pepper said:


> I only have 2 cards that are mining. They already paid themselves several times over last year. I think the profit flactuating is mostly with Nicehash. I've been mining the same amount of coins for the past few weeks and the main difference is if I would cash out at a loss or not. At thins point I'm just keeping the coins and eating the power cost.


Keep them. Long term, crypto will be up.


----------



## KLiKzg (Feb 9, 2022)

toilet pepper said:


> I only have 2 cards that are mining. They already paid themselves several times over last year. I think the profit flactuating is mostly with Nicehash. I've been mining the same amount of coins for the past few weeks and the main difference is if I would cash out at a loss or not. At thins point I'm just keeping the coins and eating the power cost.


Exactly. The market has tendency to go up...so any coin mined today, will be 1,5~2 by the ETY.

So keep on mining...


----------



## trog100 (Feb 16, 2022)

nothing much happening in the crypto markets.. bitcoin hovering just over 44K with eth at 3.1K.. sideways it seems to be.. 

trog


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## Asylum (Feb 16, 2022)

Decentraland is a great investment at this time and has great potential to explode in the near future.

JPMorgan has just made a big investment, see the write up below.

https://blockworks.co/jpmorgan-enters-the-metaverse-with-virtual-decentraland-lounge/

https://www.coinbase.com/price/decentraland


----------



## Bomby569 (Feb 24, 2022)

Now with sanctions, i wonder if crypto doesn't become the way Russia use to go aroung it.


----------



## cvaldes (Feb 24, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> Now with sanctions, i wonder if crypto doesn't become the way Russia use to go aroung it.


The New York Times published an article about this today:









						Russia Could Use Cryptocurrency to Blunt the Force of U.S. Sanctions
					

Russian companies have many cryptocurrency tools at their disposal to evade sanctions, including a so-called digital ruble and ransomware.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Yes, it is assumed that Russia has had a chance to study this for some time.

Putin isn't a naive hillbilly invading his neighbor's farm with a pitchfork. He's a little savvier than that. For sure he knew that the West would ramp up sanctions if Russia commenced military action. Remember that he was KGB.

As we have covered before cryptocurrencies aren't immune from macro economic forces. They aren't self-contained bubbles.


----------



## Bomby569 (Feb 24, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> The New York Times published an article about this today:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



thanks but i can't read, asks me to log in

can you do a TLDR so i don't have to create an acc please


----------



## cvaldes (Feb 24, 2022)

My 15 second summary of the NYT article:

Russia has multiple tools to use cryptos: digital ruble, ransomware attacks to increase their funds, Hydra. There is precedence as both Iran and North Korea have used cryptos to circumvent some sanctions placed on those two countries.

That's all the time I'm willing to give up to regurgitate this article. I did not have to log in to the NY Times website to read the entire thing and I am not a paid subscriber (I've had a free account for 20+ years). If you want to read it, make an account.

Over the next few days one should expect to see similar news articles pop up on a variety of news sites. I don't know if the NYT article is the first but it certainly won't be the last. Naturally some of these articles will be behind paywalls but others will be free to read.


----------



## trog100 (Feb 24, 2022)

bitcoin and eth are showing a bit of a recovery now at just over 38K.. gold is well up.. times are very uncertain..

trog


----------



## Bomby569 (Feb 25, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin and eth are showing a bit of a recovery now at just over 38K.. gold is well up.. times are very uncertain..
> 
> trog



i trully believe crypto is coming ahead with this war, and i'm not even a crypto believer as you can see by my past posts. But i'm pragmatic. This can be the push for the 100k everyone was expecting


----------



## Bomby569 (Feb 28, 2022)

The Russians are all buying bitcoin right now


----------



## ppn (Feb 28, 2022)

It has been doing the same thing over and over again. on 22-26-th every month start to grow until 10-15 next month when it plummets, only the strength of this motion changes, sometimes it keeps dropping, this is the risk of the game. they see a dip, they buy the dip. you can almost play it safe and exploit this to make insane profits, 50% every month, 1000% every year, so the only thing keeping it alive is this self fulfilling prophecy, and the fact that some of the players are using their profits to buy and sell to them selves since they own 50% of all transactions and is anonymous using their multiple brokers for no loss to prop this thing up, so those russians are in for a big surprise if it goes the wrong direction, which it will.


----------



## Bomby569 (Feb 28, 2022)

ppn said:


> It has been doing the same thing over and over again. on 22-26-th every month start to grow until 10-15 next month when it plummets, only the strength of this motion changes, sometimes it keeps dropping, this is the risk of the game. they see a dip, they buy the dip. you can almost play it safe and exploit this to make insane profits, 50% every month, 1000% every year, so the only thing keeping it alive is this self fulfilling prophecy, and the fact that some of the players are using their profits to buy and sell to them selves since they own 50% of all transactions and is anonymous using their multiple brokers for no loss to prop this thing up, so those russians are in for a big surprise if it goes the wrong direction, which it will.



i've actually been doing that myself from some time, buy sell, buy sell, up 17% with not a single loss 

But i would bet the Russian thing will be one that gets bitcoin to 100, i would be very surprised if i'm wrong. Ruble is shit, they can't use banking system, it's the next best thing. Or not, i'm actually bad with money.


----------



## trog100 (Feb 28, 2022)

Bitcoin now up over 41K with eth at 2.8K... where it goes now is anybodies guess.. my guess is up.. he he..

the russian ruble is down 30%.. things like this make a strong case for owning bitcoin..

ps.. later in the day bitcoin now at 43K (15% on the day) with eth at 2.9K.. up definitely seems to be the way..

tuesday morning.. the stock markets are down.. bitcoin and gold are up.. bitcoin near 45K and still seems to be in an upwards trend.. crypto has 100% decoupled from the stock markets..

trog


----------



## Mescalamba (Mar 1, 2022)

Kinda awful way for true adoption, but it always seemed that for world to move bit more towards crypto, something drastic has to happen.

Hope it won't end in WW3, that would make it bit pointless.


----------



## Bomby569 (Mar 2, 2022)

russian money now is going the Venezuelan way, toilet paper. Someone that exchanged it all for bitcoin (i know lots of other coins, but lets face it, come on) can be a rich man in Russia.


----------



## trog100 (Mar 2, 2022)

trying to wage economic warfare on russia could well backfire and f-ck up the entire worlds monetary system.. its a shame the people in charge are too dumb to know this..

there is only one answer to this.. listen to russias security concerns and agree to limit the expansion of nato into Ukraine (keep it out) and be done with it..  the expansion of nato onto russias doorstep is what its all about..

whats going on at the moment does seem to be benefiting bitcoin and is a good example of what bitcoin is all about.. real money without government meddling.. 

trog


----------



## Bomby569 (Mar 2, 2022)

trog100 said:


> trying to wage economic warfare on russia could well backfire and f-ck up the entire worlds monetary system.. its a shame the people in charge are too dumb to know this..
> 
> there is only one answer to this.. listen to russias security concerns and agree to limit the expansion of nato into Ukraine (keep it out) and be done with it..  the expansion of nato onto russias doorstep is what its all about..
> 
> ...



They should have done that before the invasion, this would all have been avoided and we all would be much better. But egos star wars. One side side now for stupid pride, the other went to war for stupid pride for having heard the no. That will never change.

The more chaos the better for crypto that's for sure, at least it doesn't depend of old stupid man and their prides and nonsense.


----------



## LFaWolf (Mar 2, 2022)

trog100 said:


> trying to wage economic warfare on russia could well backfire and f-ck up the entire worlds monetary system.. its a shame the people in charge are too dumb to know this..
> 
> there is only one answer to this.. listen to russias security concerns and agree to limit the expansion of nato into Ukraine (keep it out) and be done with it..  the expansion of nato onto russias doorstep is what its all about..
> 
> ...


Ukraine is nowhere near joing the NATO. NATO has rejected its application several times. Ukraine couldn't even join EU. Besides, it is a sovereign state. It is allowed to do anything it wants to. Otherwise, your neighbor could come over and tell you, he would come into your house and destroy your mining equipment because mining threatens his environment...

Don't watch Russian's propaganda. It is not good for your health.


----------



## Bomby569 (Mar 2, 2022)

Ups and downs as usual but Bitcoin seems to be holding at near 40K€ (i don't use the freedom money)


----------



## ThrashZone (Mar 2, 2022)

trog100 said:


> good example of what bitcoin is all about.. real money without government meddling..
> 
> trog


Hi,
Yeah let other entities manipulate coin like Musk/.................. that's a better sign of how real money should act like lol


----------



## trog100 (Mar 2, 2022)

whatever the reasons bitcoin seems to be holding nicely above 44K.. eth is around 3K.. 

gold is down a bit and the stock markets are back in the green..

come back in a weeks time.. he he..

trog


----------



## Bomby569 (Mar 3, 2022)

Kraken CEO fires back at Ukraine’s request to freeze Russian crypto: ‘Step 1 would be to freeze all U.S. accounts’​While he has “deep respect” for the people of Ukraine, he said he believes crypto should enforce individualism, rather than nationalistic alliance to a country.

“Besides, if we were going to voluntarily freeze financial accounts of residents of countries unjustly attacking and provoking violence around the world, step 1 would be to freeze all U.S. accounts,”









						Kraken CEO fires back at Ukraine’s request to freeze Russian crypto: ‘Step 1 would be to freeze all U.S. accounts’
					

Kraken CEO Jesse Powell has responded to calls for his company to freeze the crypto assets of Russians amid Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine.




					finance.yahoo.com
				






Absolutely right in my view at least. Crypto can gain a lot of supporters that way.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 4, 2022)

I mean, the comparison has valid points for sure.  But what Russia is doing in this war is a little more bold than even recent US actions that were similar (Iraq electric boogaloo, what have you).  They seem to be deliberately and knowingly targeting civilian infrastructure with no regard to human life or safety.  I mean just last evening Russia was lobbing shells at literal nuclear reactors.

So no, the comparison is not really valid.  Nor do I think Crypto could freeze funds if they wanted to.  Kind of the point.


----------



## Bomby569 (Mar 4, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> I mean, the comparison has valid points for sure.  But what Russia is doing in this war is a little more bold than even recent US actions that were similar (Iraq electric boogaloo, what have you).  They seem to be deliberately and knowingly targeting civilian infrastructure with no regard to human life or safety.  I mean just last evening Russia was lobbing shells at literal nuclear reactors.
> 
> So no, the comparison is not really valid.  Nor do I think Crypto could freeze funds if they wanted to.  Kind of the point.



I really think you missed the point being made, it was more about crypto staying out, if it becomes another fiat that any government for any reason can control, so what's the point.

I already said elsewhere, when Ukraine started handing out guns to civilians everyone become a target, was a desperate move but not a smart move. I don't think things are comparable, all are despicable, all wars are. The US use drone strikes to kill target x or y knowing full well they would hit civilians that had nothing to do with it, it's public knowledge, but all this is besides the point.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 5, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> I really think you missed the point being made


We are in a price thread I suppose, so you may be right.


----------



## Bomby569 (Mar 5, 2022)

You either make a rule that crypto stays Switzerland in all of things, or then it becomes hard to decide what and when to take this or the other side. And besides there are so many exchanges and someone could easily create one just to go around this that i don't see this ever working out.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 5, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> You either make a rule that crypto stays Switzerland in all of things, or then it becomes hard to decide what and when to take this or the other side. And besides there are so many exchanges and someone could easily create one just to go around this that i don't see this ever working out.


I mean I did admit it's technically unfeasible.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 5, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> “Besides, if we were going to voluntarily freeze financial accounts of residents of countries unjustly attacking and provoking violence around the world, step 1 would be to freeze all U.S. accounts,”
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Utter bloody hog-slop that...


----------



## trog100 (Mar 5, 2022)

i think we need to keep geo-politics out of this thread.. or at least make some attempt.. 

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 5, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i think we need to keep geo-politics out of this thread.. or at least make some attempt..
> 
> trog


It's a market thread.  Politics are affecting the market now.  You have to acknowledge that but people should keep it centered on the price, not politics.


----------



## trog100 (Mar 5, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> It's a market thread.  Politics are affecting the market now.  You have to acknowledge that but people should keep it centered on the price, not politics.



the political situation is affecting the price of everything including crypto.. crypto did seem to break away from general stock market falls but over the last few days that situation seems to have changed.. 

currently the world is awash with war propaganda as is always the case.. best to believe none of it.. or at least avoid it in this thread.. 

bitcoin and eth have taken some losses over the last couple of days.. what happens next is anybodies guess.. 

trog


----------



## Outback Bronze (Mar 5, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> It's a market thread.  Politics are affecting the market now.  You have to acknowledge that but people should keep it centered on the price, not politics.



I don't mind either way. I like to read people's thoughts on the matter. Price or politics : )


----------



## Bomby569 (Mar 5, 2022)

Going back to the price, i really imagined crypto going nuts with this war, but apparently it seems to be slowly going back to the usual line it was following before this.

I did predicted the bump in price, but i failed on the long perspective. But could just be people that were holding crypto before this just cashing out. Interesting to see what happens next. I read China and Russia were trying to do something to avoid the dollar and the sanctions.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 5, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> Going back to the price, i really imagined crypto going nuts with this war, but apparently it seems to be slowly going back to the usual line it was following before this.
> 
> I did predicted the bump in price, but i failed on the long perspective. But could just be people that were holding crypto before this just cashing out. Interesting to see what happens next. I read China and Russia were trying to do something to avoid the dollar and the sanctions.


It's not going to be mainstream crypto that benefits.  It's too traceable.  Monero and that ilk will likely see a bump though.


----------



## Bomby569 (Mar 5, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> It's not going to be mainstream crypto that benefits.  It's too traceable.  Monero and that ilk will likely see a bump though.



No sure, i get your point, Monero is the way to go for the more suspicious stuff. Not to say that i fully agree that you need Monero for all that, you can still use Bitcoin for example if it isn't too obvious and there are ways to make it less obvious.
But i was expecting average Russian, would use Bitcoin as ruble now is worth shit and you can use it unlike rubles or visa or whatever.


----------



## cvaldes (Mar 5, 2022)

trog100 said:


> the political situation is affecting the price of everything including crypto.. crypto did seem to break away from general stock market falls but over the last few days that situation seems to have changed..
> 
> currently the world is awash with war propaganda as is always the case.. best to believe none of it.. or at least avoid it in this thread..


No cryptocurrency or similar financial token is immune to geopolitical influences. Macro economic factors affect all financial markets.

We have covered this ground before.

Crypto does not exist in a bubble world.

Economic discussions must recognize politics. Denial doesn't change anything.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 6, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> No sure, i get your point, Monero is the way to go for the more suspicious stuff. Not to say that i fully agree that you need Monero for all that, you can still use Bitcoin for example if it isn't too obvious and there are ways to make it less obvious.
> But i was expecting average Russian, would use Bitcoin as ruble now is worth shit and you can use it unlike rubles or visa or whatever.


Oh yeah I see that thought process.  See, I couldn't get "Oligarch" out of my head...  lol


----------



## 95Viper (Mar 6, 2022)

From the Guidelines:


> *Posting in a thread*
> Be polite and Constructive, if you have nothing nice to say then don't say anything at all.
> This includes trolling, continuous use of bad language (ie. cussing), flaming, baiting, retaliatory comments, system feature abuse, and insulting others.
> Do not get involved in any off-topic banter or arguments. Please report them and avoid them instead.
> ...


Also,


> All posts and private messages have a "report post" button on the bottom of the post, click it when you feel something is inappropriate. Do not use your report as a "wild card invitation" to go back and add to the drama and therefore become part of the problem.


Thank You


----------



## trog100 (Mar 9, 2022)

no logical reasons for any of this but stocks are seeing an upwards surge and bitcoin is going along with them.. bitcoin now up near 42K.. 

gold is down a small amount.. where things go from here is still anybodies guess.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 9, 2022)

It's been swinging up and down all month.. It'll will likely top out around 43k and drop back down again.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Mar 9, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> It's been swinging up and down all month.. It'll will likely top out around 43k and drop back down again.



What makes you think 43K is the top?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 9, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> What makes you think 43K is the top?


The trends for the last several weeks. The market is going through another fluctuation cycle. It might go to 44k but not much higher before it falls off again.


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 9, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> The trends for the last several weeks. The market is going through another fluctuation cycle. It might go to 44k but not much higher before it falls off again.


This is how I feel too, not that I really have any idea...


----------



## trog100 (Mar 9, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> What makes you think 43K is the top?



that is his "guess".. he could be right but then again.. he he..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 9, 2022)

trog100 said:


> that is his educated "guess"..


FTFY.


----------



## KLiKzg (Mar 15, 2022)

Sanctions coming up on Russians, even in crypto world:
https://fortune.com/2022/03/07/coinbase-blocks-25000-crypto-wallets-russians-sanctions/


----------



## R-T-B (Mar 15, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> Sanctions coming up on Russians, even in crypto world:
> https://fortune.com/2022/03/07/coinbase-blocks-25000-crypto-wallets-russians-sanctions/


Technically that's at the exchange and not on the crypto side, but yes.  And that's precisely how it should be handled.  You can't cash it out?  You can't really make money off it either.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 15, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> Sanctions coming up on Russians, even in crypto world:
> https://fortune.com/2022/03/07/coinbase-blocks-25000-crypto-wallets-russians-sanctions/


And the effect of this will be interesting to watch...


----------



## trog100 (Mar 22, 2022)

bitcoin has been range bound and trading between 38 and 42K.. i think it may be in the process of breaking out to the upside.. it may fail to do this but i think not.. eth is just over 3K..

the lux algo stream.. currently showing strong buy signals..










trog


----------



## trog100 (Mar 29, 2022)

tuesday morning.. bitcoin at 47K with eth at 3.4k... definitely a breakout to the upside going on.. how high it goes is anybodies guess.. 

trog


----------



## Outback Bronze (Mar 29, 2022)

trog100 said:


> tuesday morning.. bitcoin at 47K with eth at 3.4k... definitely a breakout to the upside going on.. how high it goes is anybodies guess..
> 
> trog


 
It should keep going. The Terra (LUNA) founder is buying 10B in BTC. They have only just bought their first 1B worth so this is why the price is already up.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Mar 29, 2022)

Artificial price inflation. Who knows what the long term effect will be.


----------



## cvaldes (Apr 5, 2022)

Probably the standard pump and dump ploy.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 5, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> Probably the standard pump and dump ploy.


In the stock market it's known as "buy low sell high."


----------



## cvaldes (Apr 5, 2022)

You can short in the stock market.

Hell, the stock market is so well developed that you can buy 3x leveraged bear funds to short, like SQQQ, SOXS, SDOW, whatever.

Not so easy to short cryptos. 

I'm sure there's a way you can but it's not as easy as someone saying "I'm buy a ton of ____". That's what pump and dump stands for: the grandstanding aspect to drive up the price.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 5, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> You can short in the stock market.


You can in crypto too, and no it's not hard.



cvaldes said:


> not as easy as someone saying "I'm buy a ton of ____". That's what pump and dump stands for: the grandstanding aspect to drive up the price.


Well duh.  But that's just due to lack of regulation.  It would be doable in the stock market too if it weren't illegal.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Apr 5, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> You can in crypto too, and no it's not hard.



Probably better returns too because of the massive (consistent would you say?) swings associated with crypto if you know how to catch it : )


----------



## trog100 (Apr 5, 2022)

bitcoin is hitting strong resistance at 47K.. eth seems to be holding above 3.5K.. if bitcoin breaks 47K the next resistance level will be 50K.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Apr 22, 2022)

bitcoin now at around 40K with eth at 3K.. the break out to the upside didnt last long... 

40K is generally thought of as bottom though..

trog


----------



## Chomiq (Apr 26, 2022)

GPU mining is dead they said...


----------



## R0H1T (Apr 26, 2022)

So this is where all those 6600 Radeons were hiding


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 27, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> GPU mining is dead they said...
> View attachment 245026


This post should be over on the other cryptocoin discussion thread.


----------



## R-T-B (Apr 27, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> GPU mining is dead they said...
> View attachment 245026


They will sell those things in any market, dead or alive.  Biostar was pushing mining crap out in the height of the crash...  lol.



lexluthermiester said:


> This post should be over on the other cryptocoin discussion thread.


Yeah, that would be more on topic.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 27, 2022)

Speaking of being on topic...

The last 30 days have been a rollercoaster until last week when things started to tank..


----------



## Chomiq (Apr 30, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Speaking of being on topic...
> 
> The last 30 days have been a rollercoaster until last week when things started to tank..
> View attachment 245119
> ...


At this point it's more of a "been there, done that". Wasn't it the same like 2-3 months ago?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Apr 30, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> At this point it's more of a "been there, done that". Wasn't it the same like 2-3 months ago?


True, but what stands out to me is that this down trend seems a bit more gradual.


----------



## Metroid (Apr 30, 2022)

It takes time for btc to crash hard after a bull market peak, looking at past bull markets in 2011, 2014 and 2018, it takes usually around 1 year at least, so btc peak was 2021 November, so expect to crash hard after november 2022 or maybe a little before that. I still believe there will be a last bulltrap before that to 50k again, bottom at this moment is around 10k, it can happen anytime, manipulators might crash it around 15k then rise to 30k then crash back to 15k then keep doing these swings.


----------



## trog100 (May 6, 2022)

bitcoin now down to 36K with eth at 2.7K.. its basically tied to the stock markets which are not looking all that healthy.. he he

trog


----------



## KLiKzg (May 7, 2022)

So this is when you buy.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 7, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> So this is when you buy.


No, it's gonna drop more in the next month or two before it goes back up.


----------



## KLiKzg (May 7, 2022)

& this is going to drive the Crypto in next year or two:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522963011748745216
LHR unlocked!


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 7, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> & this is going to drive the Crypto in next year or two:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522963011748745216
> LHR unlocked!


What you missed is the crashes that are happening whenever some try running that "fix". It will work on some early cards, not the later versions of the GPUs. In later revisions, the LHR limiter is built into the hardware. It *can not* be unlocked.

Additionally, such a patch effort will be useless as soon as the POS changeover happens.


----------



## uuee (May 8, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> What you missed is the crashes that are happening whenever some try running that "fix". It will work on some early cards, not the later versions of the GPUs. In later revisions, the LHR limiter is built into the hardware. It *can not* be unlocked.


Works just fine for me (well, tested it for 30mins only) on a 3060 v2 (hw lhr limiter). I can reach 48Mh/s +


----------



## trog100 (May 8, 2022)

sunday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin now down to 34K.. it will be interesting to see how low it goes and the rest of the none crypto markets..

trog


----------



## R-T-B (May 9, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin now down to 36K with eth at 2.7K.. its basically tied to the stock markets which are not looking all that healthy.. he he
> 
> trog


This is what crypto going mainstream looks like I'm afraid.



lexluthermiester said:


> Additionally, such a patch effort will be useless as soon as the POS changeover happens.


This is the real end goal.


----------



## trog100 (May 9, 2022)

monday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin now down to 33K with the euro stock markets all opening in the red.. whoops..

gold is also down which is odd..

trog

ps.. thursday evening bitcoin now at 31K and looks to be still heading down.. i think we could be looking at a general market crash..


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 9, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523749536379793408
Looks like something's going down on UST right now.






UST is Terra's algorithmic "US Dollar Stablecoin". Its supposed to stay at (or at least, very very near) $1 at all times, backed by various algorithms.

It has clearly broken the US-dollar peg, and is currently at $0.91 USD right now, and was as low as $0.85 USD an hour ago. The above tweets were sent out in the first big drop at 3pm-ish (see 15:00 on the above Coinbase graph).

----------------

EDIT: (Posts merged when I tried to make a new post)

Ummm....





I decided to check on UST again to see if it got any better.

Spoiler alert: it got worse. $0.77 is really far off the peg.

EDIT: I hit "refresh" 5 minutes later and its $0.72. Holy shit.

EDIT: "Refresh" update: $0.65. I can't stop watching this trainwreck. I'm glued to my screen. I need to know where this ends...

EDIT: Okay, it has held at $0.65 for a few minutes now. I think I'll take my eyes off my computer screen now, while I can...


----------



## kapone32 (May 10, 2022)

There is a fight going on across the World and in various Channels to control Crypto. I feel sorry for people that Invested in those Crypto funds.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 10, 2022)

kapone32 said:


> There is a fight going on across the World and in various Channels to control Crypto. I feel sorry for people that Invested in those Crypto funds.



It looks like just a normal bank-run scenario to me? The peg fell over, some people lost confidence, and now a bunch of people are selling UST, worried that it will never recover, or that this is a death-knell of some kind?

Volume is up, lots of selling is occurring. The people in charge are trying to restart the peg to the promised $1 value behind the scenes. WLUNA / LUNA keeps dropping. Etc. etc. I don't think I can accept a grand conspiracy here because this kind of behavior is kind of predictable and well studied?

People inside of UST were promised "risk free" 20% APY accounts pegged to $1 USD per UST. Well, guess what? A $0.65 UST is a broken promise. Now people are worried that it will never be fixed, let alone if they will get their "free" 20% APY this year. Since this pool of buyers aren't here to try to make tons of money, they aren't very keen on "buying the dip", every minute or hour this thing remains "unpegged" is damage to UST's reputation.

Its one thing if this was just LUNA or some other coin. But its the "stablecoin" that has collapsed. When promises are broken, many customers initiate a bank run and leave. Maybe its a mistake, and all will be fixed tomorrow morning. But what if it never gets fixed? I don't think its reasonable for stablecoins to ever collapse to $0.65, that's clearly not "stable".

------

EDIT: Woah, back to 80-cents. That jumped back up quickly. Maybe the ones in charge of LUNA / UST actually had enough reserves to start rescuing this stablecoin? I mean, its not "fixed" until the peg at $1 is returned. But it makes sense that the managers of the coin will start doing something to try and fix it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 11, 2022)

Luna continues to decline, UST is fluctuating randomly from $0.70 to $0.90, but never seeming to return close to the $1 peg. They're fighting to save UST for sure


----------



## trog100 (May 11, 2022)

bitcoin now just below 32K having been as low as 30K.. the downwards trend seem to have halted.. the same applies to the stock markets.. 

temporary or not is yet to be seen.. 

trog


----------



## Vya Domus (May 11, 2022)

The logic behind stablecoins is fundamentally broken and open to fraud implicitly because essentially all of these projects lie about their tokens being fully backed. Ironically and hilarious UST fell because they couldn't lie by design.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 11, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> The logic behind stablecoins is fundamentally broken and open to fraud implicitly because essentially all of these projects lie about their tokens being fully backed. Ironically and hilarious UST fell because they couldn't lie by design.



I agree. UST is worse than you might think. Anchor was promising people 20% gains last year. All of those people thought they found a "perfectly safe" instrument last year, and were hooked by the lies.

Its the fundamental structure of the whole thing that's clearly messed up. There's no instrument making 20% right now. Its literally impossible for the managers of Anchor to promise 20% returns. So after a year, it all collapses.

EDIT: With LUNA below $5 and UST below $0.6 (testing $0.30 sometimes, but rapidly gaining back to $0.5), I think its safe to call this entire coin dead now. There are people out there holding on for hope, but that's incredibly far off the peg, and LUNA's marketcap is far below the UST marketcap now. No amount of LUNA printing would ever generate enough real-dollars to save UST's $10 billionish deposits. The rumor is that the fund has BTC in reserve, but BTC is far below the price they bought it at (bought in at $40k, and BTC is testing $30k right now), so there's not enough money in there either.

I think its safe to call it dead, unless BTC jumps to $50k or something incredible in the next few minutes.

-----

All attention to the other stablecoins: can USDC and USDT weather the storm? USDT is looking shaky right now...


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (May 11, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I agree. UST is worse than you might think. Anchor was promising people 20% gains last year. All of those people thought they found a "perfectly safe" instrument last year, and were hooked by the lies.
> 
> Its the fundamental structure of the whole thing that's clearly messed up. There's no instrument making 20% right now. Its literally impossible for the managers of Anchor to promise 20% returns. So after a year, it all collapses.



How can anyone promise 20% APY and not be a scam or, if being charitable, a house of cards?  Those sorts of returns have never been reliable or sustainable in the history of anything.


----------



## Vya Domus (May 11, 2022)

It's interesting because it looks like UST is holding the crypto market ransom in a twisted sort of way, since they own billions of dollars worth of BTC they've started to implicitly threaten that if users don't stop cashing out they're going to start selling some of that BTC in an attempt to keep the peg which will obviously crash the entire market even further since they're all corelated with each other.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 11, 2022)

Vya Domus said:


> It's interesting because it looks like UST is holding the crypto market ransom in a twisted sort of way, since they own billions of dollars worth of BTC they've started to implicitly threaten that if users don't stop cashing out they're going to start selling some of that BTC in an attempt to keep the peg which will obviously crash the entire market even further since they're all corelated with each other.



Yeah, that's the "hidden" aspect of all of this. We know there's BTC reserves that are trying to "prop up" Luna / UST. But the longer-and-longer this goes, the more BTC just falls and collapses.

That will keep happening at least until those BTC-reserves run out (or maybe for the people "propping up" Luna/UST will give up? and just save the BTC they have remaining? Why keep trying to save such a doomed coin?).

BTC down to $29k right now. Dunno if that's selling-pressure related to Luna/UST, or some other pressure going on. USDT (Tether) is down to $0.997 on coinbase, kinda-sorta a depeg. That stablecoin stuck to $1 for a very long time, so $0.999 and $0.998 and now $0.997 seem like news to me. USDT is feeling some heat for sure.


----------



## Bomby569 (May 11, 2022)

i have no idea about this backstage moves, but i fell this is the time crypto may miss it's change, if it goes down like everything else in this crisis. I really had my hopes up but i guess i was wrong.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 12, 2022)

I can't stop watching cryptocurrencies right now. LUNA / UST is dead at this point. I keep F5ing to see how low it can go, but Luna is well below $1 and is like 30-cents. Luna is somehow lower than UST.

Whatever repercussions happened here are now spreading to every other cryptocoin in existence, stablecoin or otherwise. BTC falling below $28k. ETH below $1850. USDT / Tether now at 98.9-cents, quite a bit "off of its peg".

This is a rout of historic proportions. Given how incredibly correlated these coins are to some "tech" stocks (at least COIN / coinbase, but also plenty of other stocks dabbled in the crypto-stuffs), I fully expect to see severe repercussions in the stock market tomorrow morning.


----------



## trog100 (May 12, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I can't stop watching cryptocurrencies right now. LUNA / UST is dead at this point. I keep F5ing to see how low it can go, but Luna is well below $1 and is like 30-cents. Luna is somehow lower than UST.
> 
> Whatever repercussions happened here are now spreading to every other cryptocoin in existence, stablecoin or otherwise. BTC falling below $28k. ETH below $1850. USDT / Tether now at 98.9-cents, quite a bit "off of its peg".
> 
> This is a rout of historic proportions. Given how incredibly correlated these coins are to some "tech" stocks (at least COIN / coinbase, but also plenty of other stocks dabbled in the crypto-stuffs), I fully expect to see severe repercussions in the stock market tomorrow morning.



i watch it every day.. in essence the whole lot is going down.. how far is the bit we dont know.. 

trog


----------



## ppn (May 12, 2022)

the higher the hash rate, the lower price people are willing to ask. nice one nice hash. made my day


----------



## caroline! (May 13, 2022)

It was all planned guys. I've been saying it for years and here we are.



http://imgur.com/cB1fAuz


Exchanges are the same as regular banks. The normie crypto scene is the same as the standard financial system just... worse.


----------



## Dr. Dro (May 13, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Yeah, that's the "hidden" aspect of all of this. We know there's BTC reserves that are trying to "prop up" Luna / UST. But the longer-and-longer this goes, the more BTC just falls and collapses.
> 
> That will keep happening at least until those BTC-reserves run out (or maybe for the people "propping up" Luna/UST will give up? and just save the BTC they have remaining? Why keep trying to save such a doomed coin?).
> 
> BTC down to $29k right now. Dunno if that's selling-pressure related to Luna/UST, or some other pressure going on. USDT (Tether) is down to $0.997 on coinbase, kinda-sorta a depeg. That stablecoin stuck to $1 for a very long time, so $0.999 and $0.998 and now $0.997 seem like news to me. USDT is feeling some heat for sure.



I have an extremely negative view of cryptocurrencies (as well as the sheer dishonesty of crypto influencers, especially those who have rebranded their entire identity around crypto, NFTs and act like they're best buddies with each other), and thus I refrain from participating in these threads, but no matter how large, you can only keep the ponzi going for so long. 

The cryptocurrency "market" as a whole is a house of cards, a complex web of ponzis hedged against other ponzis, which is why once any remotely successful "currency" network utterly collapses like this, it sends a shockwave throughout the entire structure. While the so-called "stablecoins" are clearly designed as a safety net, the numbers you see prove they aren't immune to the pressure, simply because of their nature - and it's not the algorithms that make these "stable", it's the _consensus_ between users that they are. Which is quickly routed by a market panic situation.


----------



## trog100 (May 13, 2022)

early friday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin back up to 30K and looking to be heading higher.... 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 13, 2022)

I think it's doing a roller-coaster again.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (May 13, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> I think it's doing a roller-coaster again.



Did it ever stop?


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 13, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Did it ever stop?


Yeah, it was holding more or less steady for a while.


----------



## Bomby569 (May 14, 2022)

i'm sorry for being blunt, but crypto always had this up and downs, all this talk now is either people who only follow it now or have *alzheimer's*


----------



## ir_cow (May 15, 2022)

Buy low - Sell high is the name of this game. Even though its a giant ponzi scheme, still easy money to be made with every cycle. Just don't be caught holding the bag at the end. I'm hoping BTC drops to 2017 crash levels again. 3k in, 60k out.


----------



## chrisevan (May 20, 2022)

Long-term bullish, short-term bearish, 4-year cycle of bulls and bears


----------



## Chomiq (May 22, 2022)

So our banks now force users to provide your source of income along with few checkboxes:






> I don't make regular profits from crypto assets
> I do not represent or cooperate with the government or governmental institution of Iran, Syria, North Korea, the Republic of Cuba, Venezuela, Sudan or South Sudan or the territory of Crimea
> Currently, I do not plan to perform one-off cash transactions above the equivalent of PLN 50,000
> Currently, I do not plan to carry out one-off foreign transactions above the equivalent of PLN 200,000 to countries other than European Union member states and the United Kingdom


All of this under the "Act on counteracting money laundering and financing of terrorism." So making profits from crypto now falls under "money laundering and financing of terrorism"?

Same for business account owners, one of the questions concerns your business being linked to crypto assets.


----------



## the54thvoid (May 22, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> So our banks now force users to provide your source of income along with few checkboxes:
> View attachment 248423
> 
> All of this under the "Act on counteracting money laundering and financing of terrorism." So making profits from crypto now falls under "money laundering and financing of terrorism"?
> ...



Crypto laundering is estimated at $8.6 billion last year, up 30% on the previous year. It's growth in illegal activity is clearly seen as a threat to financial stability.

Source was from BBC via a report from Chainanalysis, IIRC.

Edit: banks can get huge fines for allowing it to happen.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 22, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> So our banks now force users to provide your source of income along with few checkboxes:
> View attachment 248423
> 
> All of this under the "Act on counteracting money laundering and financing of terrorism." So making profits from crypto now falls under "money laundering and financing of terrorism"?
> ...


Had to happen sooner or later..


----------



## trog100 (May 22, 2022)

bitcoin is a threat to the establishment.. the BBC is now a propaganda arm of the establishment..

you can now buy energy from russia using rubles gold or bitcoin not dollars or euros.. ..

trog


----------



## the54thvoid (May 22, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin is a threat to the establishment.. the BBC is now a propaganda arm of the establishment..
> 
> trog



BBC is legally obliged to remain neutral. It recently went to court to push a documentary the Government didn't want it to publish. It's certainly not a propaganda machine, as much as the government is trying to make it so.

If you want to spout propaganda BS, turn your attention to the  millionaire and billionaire crypto creators and the wealthy elites who gain the most from it.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 22, 2022)

the54thvoid said:


> BBC is legally obliged to remain neutral. It recently went to court to push a documentary the Government didn't want it to publish. It's certainly not a propaganda machine, as much as the government is trying to make it so.
> 
> If you want to spout propaganda BS, turn your attention to the  millionaire and billionaire crypto creators and the wealthy elites who gain the most from it.


This. Spot on. BBC is actually one of the few media news outlet that CAN be taken at face value. They are legally and ethically required to remain objective and NOT put spin on news they report.


trog100 said:


> the BBC is now a propaganda arm of the establishment..


You want to say that about CNN? Ok, there's mountains of evidence to support that, but not the BBC.

However, we're getting off topic. This discussion belongs in the other Cryptocoin thread...


----------



## trog100 (May 22, 2022)

the54thvoid said:


> BBC is legally obliged to remain neutral. It recently went to court to push a documentary the Government didn't want it to publish. It's certainly not a propaganda machine, as much as the government is trying to make it so.
> 
> If you want to spout propaganda BS, turn your attention to the  millionaire and billionaire crypto creators and the wealthy elites who gain the most from it.



interesting how americans trust the BBC.. but the bottom line is it spins an establishment narrative.. manipulating public oppinion is the order of the day..

i have no more to say on this issue but its best not to trust any of it.. 

trog


----------



## the54thvoid (May 22, 2022)

trog100 said:


> interesting how americans trust the BBC.. but the bottom line is it spins an establishment narrative.. manipulating public oppinion is the order of the day..
> 
> i have no more to say on this issue but its best not to trust any of it..
> 
> trog



I'm not American, I generally trust the BBC. Regardless, the BBC does not spin an establishment narrative. If you believe that to be so, it demonstrates a tinfoil hat mentality. 

And to point out, the BBC only reported, without opinion, an article released by Chainanalysis.









						The Blockchain Data Platform - Chainalysis
					

Chainalysis helps government agencies, cryptocurrency businesses, and financial institutions engage confidently with cryptocurrency.




					www.chainalysis.com
				




Their purpose is to support the adoption of the Blockchain by giving banks, agencies, and security firms, the necessary knowledge to 'trust' the digital market. They're definitely not enemies of crypto.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 22, 2022)

the54thvoid said:


> Their purpose is to support the adoption of the Blockchain by giving banks, agencies, and security firms, the necessary knowledge to 'trust' the digital market. They're definitely not enemies of crypto.


I don't think it's that even. I think they're just reporting information that is relevant to the public interest, showing the facts so people can think for themselves.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 22, 2022)

The fact remains that North Korean hackers and Russian hackers / criminal groups have been linked to hugely important hacks: hospital ransomware attacks, the ransomware attack in the USA's oil pipeline, etc. etc.

Those criminals could have used any system that worked. Dollars, Euros, Yuan. But no, those criminals are increasingly asking for Bitcoin.

----------

I think a country-specific ban (ie: against North Korea, and now against Russia since there's some *other* bans going on anyway) makes sense. Don't transfer large sums of money (certainly not things that look like ransomware attacks) and you should be good.


----------



## Vario (May 22, 2022)

If there is a major recession of the overall economy, a scenario similar to 2008, what happens to the cryptocurrency exchanges when crypto investors decide that they need their cryptocurrency cashed out for dollars so they can meet their liquidity needs: such as pay rent, bills, gas, food, etc?

My expectation is that if enough people sell off, value will plummet, there will be a run on the exchanges, the exchanges will be unable to accommodate the trading volume, and the overall crypto system will collapse.


----------



## R-T-B (May 22, 2022)

Vario said:


> My expectation is that if enough people sell off, value will plummet


That is how traded value commodities work.


----------



## KLiKzg (May 23, 2022)

Chomiq said:


> So our banks now force users to provide your source of income along with few checkboxes:
> View attachment 248423
> 
> All of this under the "Act on counteracting money laundering and financing of terrorism." So making profits from crypto now falls under "money laundering and financing of terrorism"?
> ...


That is why I use those coins to purchase some LEGAL things online...mine it, spend it!

Everything else is just an illusion!


----------



## Vario (May 23, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> That is how traded value commodities work.


Yes, read the rest of the sentence.  My point is not the decline in value, my point is the inability of the exchanges to handle the sell off.


----------



## Aquinus (May 23, 2022)

Vario said:


> Yes, read the rest of the sentence.  My point is not the decline in value, my point is the inability of the exchanges to handle the sell off.


They handle the sell off by allowing the currency to continue to devalue until it's worth nothing. Good riddance if you ask me.


----------



## Vario (May 23, 2022)

Aquinus said:


> They handle the sell off by allowing the currency to continue to devalue until it's worth nothing. Good riddance if you ask me.


Yeah, if I had to guess, the way they would handle a high volume sell off is by not honoring transactions.


----------



## Aquinus (May 23, 2022)

Vario said:


> Yeah, if I had to guess, the way they would handle a high volume sell off is by not honoring transactions.


Here, enjoy your fractions of a penny. Kind of like coupons.


----------



## R-T-B (May 23, 2022)

Most legit major exchanges (coinbase comes to mind) use fairly open books and would be able to handle such a run.  Of course the crypto wouldn't survive it, but like, duh.

Of course this has nothing to do with the market reality at the moment, so is kind of offtopic.  If anything crypto has mildly recovered some since the last crash.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 23, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> so is kind of offtopic.


Actually it's *a lot* off-topic.

Folks, take the general discussion of cryptocoin to the following thread;








						General Cryptocoin Discussion
					

As many threads seem to get side-tracked with general discussion about cryptocoin, we need a thread where discussion about the subject that can meander from any one aspect as the users need it too.  This is a general discussion about cryptocoin and all topics about this subject are welcome...




					www.techpowerup.com
				




Futher off-topic discussion will be reported and thread-bans will be requested.


----------



## trog100 (May 23, 2022)

bitcoin now hovering around 30K.. the trend is slightly up but mostly side ways..

it seems to be closely linked to US stock market prices..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 23, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin now hovering around 30K.. the trend is slightly up but mostly side ways..


For the last week or so yeah. Took a dive before that.


trog100 said:


> it seems to be closely linked to US stock market prices..


You keep saying this, but I'm not seeing it. My investments are not doing anything close to what cryptocoin is doing. So once again, I call nonsense on that.


----------



## R-T-B (May 23, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> You keep saying this, but I'm not seeing it. My investments are not doing anything close to what cryptocoin is doing


It should be easy to overlay one of the stock averages over the btc price and prove/disprove that one...


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 23, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> It should be easy to overlay one of the stock averages over the btc price and prove/disprove that one...


Exactly. The notion that the Stock markets and the cryptocoin markets act/react in harmony is ENTIRELY subjective and the merit of the idea depends on a "chaos theory" of example points.


----------



## R-T-B (May 23, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Exactly. The notion that the Stock markets and the cryptocoin markets act/react in harmony is ENTIRELY subjective and the merit of the idea depends on a "chaos theory" of example points.


Well I mean you could say "it mimics x stock index" with some degree of substantiation, but that is about it.  It really is a case of picking your charts.


----------



## trog100 (May 23, 2022)

on a daily basis what i noticed is when the US stock market goes down or up bitcoin follows it.. its what i see..

today for example bitcoin is up a tad.. when the US stock markets opens i expect them to also be up a tad..

its just what i am seeing at the moment.. i aint saying the relationship is permanent but its what i am seeing at the moment..

people seem to be treating bitcoin the same as they are treating tech stocks.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 23, 2022)

trog100 said:


> on a daily what i noticed is when the US stock market goes down or up bitcoin follows it.. its what i see..
> 
> today for example bitcoin is up a tad.. when the US stock markets opens i expect them to also be up a tad..
> 
> its just what i am seeing at the moment.. i aint saying the relationship is permanent but its what i am seeing at the moment..


Ok, fair enough.


----------



## R-T-B (May 23, 2022)

I could see a casual correlation there for sure.  You can kind of think of crypto as one giant tech stock in and of itself honestly.  Of course there are differences (crypto has no products beyond the tokens) but financially speaking it kind of makes sense.


----------



## Vario (May 23, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Actually it's *a lot* off-topic.
> 
> Folks, take the general discussion of cryptocoin to the following thread;
> 
> ...


Discussing the effect of an exchange's ability to process high volume sell transactions versus the spot price of cryptocurrency is perfectly on topic, if exchanges cannot handle volume, that impacts the value because value can be defined as what someone has the _ability_ to pay. If transactions are unable to be completed, the value will be definitely impacted. Feel free to report this.


----------



## R-T-B (May 23, 2022)

Vario said:


> Discussing the effect of an exchange's ability to process high volume sell transactions versus the spot price of cryptocurrency is perfectly on topic


No because this is just the current price trend thread.


----------



## Solaris17 (May 23, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> No because this is just the current price trend thread.



I would have to agree, This thread seems to be specific to current trends. While I think a little speculation is un-avoidable for short term, it should stay just that. 

I don't think anything said currently is really super off topic, but if we want to trend into theoretical world ending shit, lets put that in the other thread.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (May 23, 2022)

BTC is more correlated to stocks than I thought it'd be. Specifically, BTC seems correlated to Nasdaq, and more specifically, the "tech-bro" sector of ARKK investing and whatnot.

I wouldn't call BTC correlated with the general market. But ARKK vs BTC is pretty interesting.






Certainly not a 1-to-1 correlation... but its still way more correlated than I'd expect.


----------



## R-T-B (May 23, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> BTC is more correlated to stocks than I thought it'd be. Specifically, BTC seems correlated to Nasdaq, and more specifically, the "tech-bro" sector of ARKK investing and whatnot.
> 
> I wouldn't call BTC correlated with the general market. But ARKK vs BTC is pretty interesting.
> 
> ...


That is indeed fascinating...


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 23, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> BTC is more correlated to stocks than I thought it'd be. Specifically, BTC seems correlated to Nasdaq, and more specifically, the "tech-bro" sector of ARKK investing and whatnot.
> 
> I wouldn't call BTC correlated with the general market. But ARKK vs BTC is pretty interesting.
> 
> ...





R-T-B said:


> That is indeed fascinating...


Agreed. That is very interesting. Not peak for peak, but there are some similarities.. One can see what trog has been talking about.


----------



## cvaldes (May 23, 2022)

We have been over this before back in January.

Bitcoin has significant positive correlation with the overall U.S. technology industry.





TQQQ is a 3x leveraged ETF based on the Nasdaq-100 index. The Nasdaq 100 is the top 100 companies trading on that exchange that aren't financial corporations so extremely tech heavy. As one would expect for a cryptotoken, BTC shows higher beta than large cap corporations.

BTC has less correlation with the Dow 30 and the S&P 500 which cover a wider range of industries.

Unsurprisingly ARKK also correlates with the Nasdaq 100. 

As these cryptotokens have matured over the years, they resemble the larger financial market closer and closer with every passing year. The smaller and newer cryptotokens often behave bizarrely.


----------



## trog100 (May 23, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Agreed. That is very interesting. Not peak for peak, but there are some similarities.. One can see what trog has been talking about.



i was right earlier.. bitcoin up a bit over the weekend the US stock markets opened in the green.. when you watch it day by day as i do the correlation is very obvious.. stock markets in the red down goes bitcoin when they are in the green up goes bitcoin..

the only thing that dosnt follow the same pattern is gold.. gold is now up a fair bit compared to what it was..

trog


----------



## trog100 (May 24, 2022)

tuesday.. stock markets well in the red.. bitcoin now down to 28K.. gold is up..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 24, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin now down to 28K


Na, it's back up. It's doing the wobble again..


----------



## trog100 (May 30, 2022)

monday morning.. bitcoin back up to 30K with eth at 1.9K.. bitcoin is gaining a little more ground than eth..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 30, 2022)

Eth seems to be tanking due to the impending POS transition that is finally going to happen. YFI has tanked too.


----------



## R-T-B (May 30, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Eth seems to be tanking due to the impending POS transition that is finally going to happen. YFI has tanked too.


What's the timeframe for the transition?  Any date yet?

It's all speculation of course but I expect a spike following the initial dump when that happens.


----------



## lexluthermiester (May 30, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> What's the timeframe for the transition? Any date yet?


Sometime in the next few months. It's overdue and they are working the problem.


----------



## trog100 (May 30, 2022)

monday.. later in the day.. bitcoin now at 31k with eth just below 2K.. 

things are moving up.. 

trog


----------



## trog100 (Jun 3, 2022)

wednesday morning.. bitcoin now back down to 30K with eth at 1.8K... eth is losing ground relative to bitcoin..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 3, 2022)

trog100 said:


> eth is losing ground relative to bitcoin..


That's never happened before. The POW/POS switch-over has got to be the reason.


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 3, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> That's never happened before. The POW/POS switch-over has got to be the reason.


I expect it's a lack of investor confidence in the devs ability to pull it off.  If they actually pull it off I expect it will help prices some.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 3, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> I expect it's a lack of investor confidence in the devs ability to pull it off.  If they actually pull it off I expect it will help prices some.


Maybe. Likely even.


----------



## Deleted member 202104 (Jun 11, 2022)

Today is the one year anniversary of this thread.  Just for history's sake on June 11 2022:


----------



## Assimilator (Jun 11, 2022)

The Work, the Tech, and the Crime — /dev/lawyer
					






					writing.kemitchell.com


----------



## hat (Jun 11, 2022)

I wonder if the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos currently has anything to do with the current state of the worldwide economy in general. I'm no economic scientist, but things ain't looking good. Supply is down, demand is up, prices are continually rising, the sizes of goods are shrinking, and yet my wages stay the same... Perhaps people are pulling out of the market and storing whatever wealth (I use the term loosely) they have in safer places. Meanwhile, I will be holding on to what I have and sprinkling what little bit I can on top of that small pile while I hope for better days.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 11, 2022)

hat said:


> I wonder if the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos currently has anything to do with the current state of the worldwide economy in general. I'm no economic scientist, but things ain't looking good. Supply is down, demand is up, prices are continually rising, the sizes of goods are shrinking, and yet my wages stay the same... Perhaps people are pulling out of the market and storing whatever wealth (I use the term loosely) they have in safer places. Meanwhile, I will be holding on to what I have and sprinkling what little bit I can on top of that small pile while I hope for better days.



bitcoin does relate to the general markets.. though relatively speaking its holding up quite well.. eth for whatever reason is not doing so well..

nobody knows where this is gonna end up but things are not looking good..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Jun 13, 2022)

monday morning.. bitcoin now down to 24K with eth at 1.26K..  ouch..

trog


----------



## Outback Bronze (Jun 13, 2022)

hat said:


> I wonder if the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos currently has anything to do with the current state of the worldwide economy in general. I'm no economic scientist, but things ain't looking good. Supply is down, demand is up, prices are continually rising, the sizes of goods are shrinking, and yet my wages stay the same... Perhaps people are pulling out of the market and storing whatever wealth (I use the term loosely) they have in safer places. Meanwhile, I will be holding on to what I have and sprinkling what little bit I can on top of that small pile while I hope for better days.



Yep good call,

Here Down Under is much the same unfortunately.

Will be interesting to see how low BTC will go.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 13, 2022)

trog100 said:


> monday morning.. bitcoin now down to 24K with eth at 1.26K..  ouch..
> 
> trog


Yeah, it's been a rough week.


Outback Bronze said:


> Will be interesting to see how low BTC will go.


I don't see it dropping below 15k.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 13, 2022)

the general markets are all crashing.. crypto is just going down with them.. its possible money may get moved into bitcoin from all the more risky alt coins and even stocks but its impossible to predict so is how low it will all go..

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 13, 2022)

Assimilator said:


> The Work, the Tech, and the Crime — /dev/lawyer
> 
> 
> 
> ...


wrong thread.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 13, 2022)

trog100 said:


> the general markets are all crashing.. crypto is just going down with them.. its possible money may get moved into bitcoin from all the more risky alt coins and even stocks but its impossible to predict so is how low it will all go..
> 
> trog



BTC going down 18% is far more in excess than the amounts of even high-risk tech sector has gone down today (ARKK is only -8%, SPY is only -3% on the day so far).

Something is going on in the cryptoworld. I dunno what. But Binance has "temporarily halted" BTC withdrawals, while Celsius has straight up stopped withdrawals all together. That does not speak to the confidence of the system right now. Something terrible is going on at Binance / Celsius, and it is spreading to the greater cryptocurrency world.

This is some crazy volatility, largely within the past hour or two. The big one, USDT / Tether, is at 99.85 cents, a little bit off the peg but not majorly off yet. BTC transactions / mempool is steadily rising, we're reaching a point where a lot of people are going to be moving BTC around for sure today. I'm expecting some kind of a big move, and given the "momentum" of the market right now, I'm guessing that's going to be a big move downwards.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 13, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Yeah, it's been a rough week.
> 
> I don't see it dropping below 15k.



Are you confident enough in that prediction to recommend buying at $15K?

Does anyone know how to phrase a question on the web these days so that it doesn't sound like snark without specifically saying, "This is not snark"?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 13, 2022)

Apparently Tron DAO (USDD) stablecoin is losing its peg right now? That's probably the catalyst for today?

Between Binance, Celsius, and Tron DAO news, it seems like a lot of systems are reaching the point of cascading collapses. Tron DAO is very small, but if Tron DAO falls, maybe the price of BTC falls by another $1000 to $2000. If that happens, maybe Celsius gets margin-called, causing BTC to drop another $2000 or $3000 in addition to that. Then whatever is going on in Binance happens, which causes the price to fall again.

Domino effect, a collapse from a small coin (Tron DAO) might cause a greater collapse of more important, bigger systems (Binance?)

-------

EDIT: Bitfinex also halting withdrawals? Uhhh... that's not good for the system.

EDIT2: Seems like things have calmed down for now? I remember with Luna/Terra, it did take a few days from the first looks of trouble (Saturday) before everything went to crap (the next Wednesday). But that was a lot of bad events happening all at once today.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 14, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Are you confident enough in that prediction to recommend buying at $15K?
> 
> Does anyone know how to phrase a question on the web these days so that it doesn't sound like snark without specifically saying, "This is not snark"?


I'm somewhat confident. Two days ago I would have said 95%, but things have gone funky. Unlike other crashes, no one has ever halted transactions before(IIRC). DragonTamer is right, something hinky is going on. The market might fall lower than 15k on BTC. ETH is already below 1300 and still falling. Cryptocoin has become, more or less, a gamble at this point. 

(your question did not seem snarky to me. choice of vocabulary and current market conditions made it seem like a very clearly honest inqury. no worries.)


----------



## mb194dc (Jun 14, 2022)

Still not seeing why any crypto "currency" is worth anything. Other than to speculate and sell on to someone for more, classic pyramid scheme which is now imploding? 

There are plenty of hard assets with limited supply you can buy to try and preserve wealth, protect against inflation. 

Sure blockchain might be useful for some things, just not as a currency when anyone can simply create their own one backed by nothing.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 14, 2022)

interesting times.. 

trog


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 14, 2022)

USDD holding at 98-cents right now.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536690108816031746
But these "defend the peg" tweets really remind me of UST / Luna.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 15, 2022)

wednesday morning.. bitcoin now at 20K with eth at 1K.. 

not a lot else to say really.. he he

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 15, 2022)

trog100 said:


> wednesday morning.. bitcoin now at 20K with eth at 1K..
> 
> not a lot else to say really.. he he
> 
> trog


I think the days of Ethereum marching in step with Bitcoin(proper) might be over..


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 15, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> I think the days of Ethereum marching in step with Bitcoin(proper) might be over..



According to: https://amycastor.com/2022/06/14/th...-a-quick-map-of-where-we-are-and-whats-ahead/ and https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2022/06/13/celsius-goes-fahrenheit-451-and-number-goes-down/



> Mike Burgersburg of Dirty Bubble Media has detailed many, many Celsius shenanigans that were glaringly visible just on public blockchains. In particular, Celsius is functionally insolvent in their ETH position. Only 27% of Celsius’ ETH is liquid — the rest is either stETH or staked in ETH2, making it unavailable for withdrawals for a year. [_Dirty Bubble__; __Twitter_]



This sounds like this whole "Celsius" issue is almost entirely centered upon the Ethereum community. stETH, ETH, and ETH2. As Celsius locks up, that necessarily breaks the price of ETH rather than BTC.

--------

EDIT: When we get to "macro" conditions, there's also the whole 0.5% rise of Fed Interest rate, which almost certainly demolished Luna/UST (or at least, was the straw that broke the camel's back). With a 0.75% rate hike expected this week, I'm guessing that a lot of crypto-enthusiasts are worried about those knock-on effects. Seems like cryptocoins are acting like a highly-speculative instrument that people run away from when other options become plausible. (Ex: bonds / CDs will almost certainly rise by 0.75% basis points, providing a safe place to keep money with a better return than anything we've seen in the last 10 years)


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 15, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> According to: https://amycastor.com/2022/06/14/th...-a-quick-map-of-where-we-are-and-whats-ahead/ and https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2022/06/13/celsius-goes-fahrenheit-451-and-number-goes-down/
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I wasn't talking about any of that. I was talking about how for last 8 years ETH has mirrored the ups and downs of BTC almost perfectly, at about 10% value. That long trend seems to have ended.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 15, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> I wasn't talking about any of that. I was talking about how for last 8 years ETH has mirrored the ups and downs of BTC almost perfectly, at about 10% value. That long trend seems to have ended.



I'm arguing that ETH is dropping more than BTC because of the underlying mechanics of Celsius.

Celsius is the #1 story in the cryptocoin markets right now. As people realize that Celsius's holdings are ETH, stETH, and ETH2, that naturally will cause other people to dump ETH.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 15, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I'm arguing that ETH is dropping more than BTC because of the underlying mechanics of Celsius.


I'm not arguing, just making an observation. I didn't make the above statement as an invitation to start a fight.


----------



## ppn (Jun 15, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> I wasn't talking about any of that. I was talking about how for last 8 years ETH has mirrored the ups and downs of BTC almost perfectly, at about 10% value. That long trend seems to have ended.


I don't see what you see,. how is it 10% when the ETH/BTC chart shows variations betwen 0,057 - 0,087 over the last year, and now back to 0,05 and probably has to rollback all the way down to 0,014 - 0,0014, over the years seen peaks of 0,14 but you could state those days are long gone.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 15, 2022)

eth is definitely dropping more than bitcoin.. 

trog


----------



## kapone32 (Jun 15, 2022)

Bitcoin is down and Etherium is in freefall but GPUs are still too expensive.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 15, 2022)

kapone32 said:


> Bitcoin is down and Etherium is in freefall but GPUs are still too expensive.



Not really the discussion here, but downward price corrections always (well, almost) take time.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 15, 2022)

i think fear is the main driving force here.. fear aint entirely rational and does kind of cause over reactions..

trog


----------



## Bomby569 (Jun 15, 2022)

That thing went to bears, i only had 100€ (i really have no trust in crypto) but what a beating.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 15, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> That thing went to bears, i only had 100€ (i really have no trust in crypto) but what a beating.



my little crypto stash is down around 45K compared to the peak.. `

i aint overly bothered cos until i want (or need) to cash it out i view it as monopoly money..

trog


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 15, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i think fear is the main driving force here.. fear aint entirely rational and does kind of cause over reactions..
> 
> trog



Certainly not the only driver.

The fundamental driver this week is Celsius, and the possible insolvency here. If Celsius doesn't have people's money, its over, you can't just lock people's money away like that and expect people to remain remain calm/rational.

Celsius knows this. They wouldn't have locked away the funds unless something *terrible* is happening in their side of the market. The ETH / stETH / ETH2 crash we're seeing now (more so than BTC) is a rational act, as we await the public confirmation of whatever Celsius has learned.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 16, 2022)

ppn said:


> I don't see what you see,. how is it 10% when the ETH/BTC chart shows variations betwen 0,057 - 0,087 over the last year, and now back to 0,05 and probably has to rollback all the way down to 0,014 - 0,0014, over the years seen peaks of 0,14 but you could state those days are long gone.


I don't know how to help you. It's plainly visible in market history maps. Of course, I am referring to the last 8 YEARS not months.



trog100 said:


> i think fear is the main driving force here.. fear aint entirely rational and does kind of cause over reactions..
> 
> trog


There is more going on than just market panic.

In other news, the following is NEVER a good sign;








						A message from Coinbase CEO and Cofounder, Brian Armstrong
					

By Brian Armstrong, CEO and Cofounder




					blog.coinbase.com


----------



## trog100 (Jun 16, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> I don't know how to help you. It's plainly visible in market history maps. Of course, I am referring to the last 8 YEARS not months.
> 
> 
> There is more going on than just market panic.
> ...



the world is in a general economic decline which could get quiet nasty.. how nasty is anybodies guess.. 

trog


----------



## Bomby569 (Jun 16, 2022)

Crypto needs to have it's own value, the truth is no one was using crypto for anything besides speculation. In a downturn market anything speculation is the first to get hit and the ones to get hit the most.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 16, 2022)

trog100 said:


> the world is in a general economic decline which could get quiet nasty.. how nasty is anybodies guess..
> 
> trog


While true, the cryptocoin market is taking a FAR greater tumble than any the stock markets.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jun 16, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> While true, the cryptocoin market is taking a FAR greater tumble than any the stock markets.



the Luna thing created that difference, up until then it was one a small descent, not greater then the stock market.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 16, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> the Luna thing created that difference, up until then it was one a small descent, not greater then the stock market.


That is incorrect. However I'm not going to argue with you.


----------



## ppn (Jun 16, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> It's plainly visible in market history maps. Of course, I am referring to the last 8 YEARS not months.


10% means it would be fixed to 0,1 with no deviation, but clearly the last 8 years has seen vaules between 0.014 and 0,14.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 16, 2022)

ppn said:


> 10% means it would be fixed to 0,1 with no deviation, but clearly the last 8 years has seen vaules between 0.014 and 0,14.


Context is important.


lexluthermiester said:


> at *about* 10% value.


You were saying?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 16, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> USDD holding at 98-cents right now.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536690108816031746
> But these "defend the peg" tweets really remind me of UST / Luna.



USDD still hasn't restored its peg, but it hasn't gotten much worse, staying at 97.5 cents now.

The underlying coin, Tron (TRX symbol) is holding steady at 0.061 (off of 0.8 from last week).


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 17, 2022)

The Latecomer’s Guide to Crypto Crashing — a quick map of where we are and what’s ahead
					

Your front row seat to the crypto apocalypse.




					amycastor.com
				




Seems to be a well written overview of the current headwinds.

* TerraUSD -- Old news but it does set the "tone" for today.

* Celsius -- Already covered by this thread, but probably the biggest headwind today.

* Layoffs at Coinbase/Gemini, Crypto.com, BlockFi

* Crypto-stocks down: $COIN, $BITF, $HUT, $BTBT, $CAN, $RIOT, all down by significant amounts.

* Tether unwinding -- No collapse yet but large scale $Billion sized withdrawals from Tether have begun. (Maybe moving money to safer USDC pastures?)

* GBTC -- regulatory issues still prevent GBTC from becoming a proper ETF.

* Price -- BTC has dropped in price significantly this past week.

* Venture Capital / companies -- Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Nexo, Swissborg headwinds.

* MicroStrategy, Silvergate Bank, -- Big banks with lots of BTC. If these "whales" get nervous, they could sell a lot of BTC and the price drops even further.

* Mt. Gox -- The Japanese Police captured 140,000 BTC from Mt. Gox during its collapse. At some point, those BTC will be sold off. Could happen this year, maybe next. Its a selloff bombshell that's been a long time coming: its inevitable but the timing is simply unknown.


----------



## Chomiq (Jun 18, 2022)

Boom:


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 18, 2022)

ETH just dipped below $1k...


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 18, 2022)

Looks like a maybe a big holder just cashed out?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 18, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Looks like a maybe a big holder just cashed out?



Almost certainly. The question is why though.

Is this MicroStrategy's margin call? Is this Mt. Gox cashing out? Celsius bankruptcy? To understand the knock-on effects, we kinda need to know "who" did the cashing out.

EDIT: Or maybe the "why" doesn't matter? We know the entire cryptocoin world is highly leveraged, and that they were playing with people's trust with this "stablecoin" nonsense. A lot of people believe their stablecoins are "safe", except they're not under these circumstances. As people wake up to the fact that stablecoin holdings are disappearing, I can only imagine that a stampede out of stablecoins will happen, which will cause a greater decline.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Jun 18, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Almost certainly. The question is why though.
> 
> Is this MicroStrategy's margin call? Is this Mt. Gox cashing out? Celsius bankruptcy? To understand the knock-on effects, we kinda need to know "who" did the cashing out.



Welp, clearly folks were watching, but volume and price have leveled out over the past several hours. Below the "magic" 20K number, though.  How did analysts arrive at that number, anyway?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 18, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Welp, clearly folks were watching



There's two ways I'm looking at this. Friday night is a very odd time to liquidate, no one else is watching.

However:

1. Liquidation events were happening _EVERY_ night this past week. Under a normal weeknight when people were watching, the HODLers would buy up Bitcoin at $20,000, thinking it was a good deal. Similarly, ETH-HODLers are buying up ETH at $1000, because round numbers are magic and people think of them as good deals.

2. Maybe its not so much that a whale unusually sold on Friday night (no more unusual than Thursday or Wednesday's declines). Maybe its just that HODLers weren't watching on Friday night because... people have lives and Friday is a big party time to stop paying attention.

Now that the "threshold" has been crossed, to $19k region, the $20,000 is no longer a support, but a barrier. Anyone scared is selling as the coin reaches closer to $20,000, because it looks like a nice point to sell now that we're suddenly below the magic number.

---------

Its psychology. Its a good point to buy as long as you're above the magic number. And its a good point to sell whenever you're below.

----------

Found this on Reddit:


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/vf6spv

Welp. One of my closer buddies (who dabbles in cryptocurrency) was on Gemini and Celsius.


----------



## dorsetknob (Jun 18, 2022)

BitCoin crash's to under $20000


----------



## trog100 (Jun 19, 2022)

bitcoin went down as low as 17K but it does seem to have recovered.. the buy below 20K seems to have been true..

i aint gonna hazard a guess as to what happens next.. its  an unknown..

trog


----------



## the54thvoid (Jun 19, 2022)

Rinse repeat. It's the basis of yo-yo economics.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Jun 19, 2022)

trog100 said:


> what happens next


 
Ride the wave matey : ) Ride The Wave.


----------



## Bones (Jun 19, 2022)

Outback Bronze said:


> Ride the wave matey : ) Ride The Wave.


The Beach Boys - Wipe Out (60's version) - YouTube

Had to.


----------



## Vya Domus (Jun 19, 2022)

A lot of tech stocks have halved in value in last 6 months and crypto is pretty strongly correlated with them, then there is also the Luna/UST crash that erased a ton of liquidity from the crypto market. If anything with all of the rampant inflation and fear from the war I am surprised BTC and other major coins held up this well.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 19, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> USDD still hasn't restored its peg, but it hasn't gotten much worse, staying at 97.5 cents now.
> 
> The underlying coin, Tron (TRX symbol) is holding steady at 0.061 (off of 0.8 from last week).



Continuing this mini-thread on stablecoins... USDD has fallen to 94.6 cents while TRX remains at 0.060.

USDT / Tether is 99.8 cents, kinda sorta off the peg but maybe not enough to make news yet.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 20, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Continuing this mini-thread on stablecoins...


This is not a minithread about stablecoins. If you're going to start with the nonsense you can show yourself out.


----------



## cvaldes (Jun 20, 2022)

BTC and ETH dead cat bounce?

BTC 20,549.19 (+8.00% past 24 hours)
ETH 1,130.94 (+14.79% past 24 hours)


----------



## Dr. Dro (Jun 20, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> BTC and ETH dead cat bounce?
> 
> BTC 20,549.19 (+8.00% past 24 hours)
> ETH 1,130.94 (+14.79% past 24 hours)



Those who have a big stake in it will do anything in their power to stop it from collapsing further at this point. If this effort fails, we will see it continue to tumble. Which I frankly hope it does.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 20, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> This is not a minithread about stablecoins. If you're going to start with the nonsense you can show yourself out.



Given that Luna + UST was the cause of the crash about a month ago, I'm pretty sure the value of stablecoins is tied to the value of BTC / ETH, and vice versa.

As these stablecoins collapse, it seems like the greater cryptocoin market collapses with them.

-------

TRX / Tron is absolutely a cryptocoin as well. And the USDD stablecoin's peg is directly related to the strength of TRX / Tron.


----------



## cvaldes (Jun 20, 2022)

Dr. Dro said:


> Those who have a big stake in it will do anything in their power to stop it from collapsing further at this point. If this effort fails, we will see it continue to tumble. Which I frankly hope it does.


Unsurprisingly, it appears Elon Musk is involved:









						Elon Musk Says He Is Buying the Crypto Dip - TheStreet
					

The billionaire and CEO of Tesla is an evangelist of digital currencies like Dogecoin and Bitcoin.




					www.thestreet.com
				




It's probable that his statement on buying Dogecoin on the dip is affecting other cryptos.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 20, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> Unsurprisingly, it appears Elon Musk is involved:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Musk has been involved for some time. His Tesla company already bought tons of Bitcoin, and Musk had the whole SNL Dogecoin pumping (and maybe dumping?) going on a few months ago.

Its not the price that's causing people to lose faith in cryptocoin though. Its all the rumors of stuck withdrawals at Celsius and other locations. I was seeing a ton of people claiming that even Coinbase is unsafe (without much evidence), but that's showing how far this "deposits scare" has come.

It doesn't matter how much BTC you allegedly have at a location if those locations just close up shop and disallow you from withdrawing. That's the fear running through the community right now.


----------



## cvaldes (Jun 20, 2022)

Maybe they should try a paper wallet.


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 20, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Is this Mt. Gox cashing out?


Mt. Gox is dead and tied up in Japanese court for years after crooks robbed them nearly a decade ago so doubtful as heck.



dragontamer5788 said:


> Musk has been involved for some time. His Tesla company already bought tons of Bitcoin, and Musk had the whole SNL Dogecoin pumping (and maybe dumping?) going on a few months ago.
> 
> Its not the price that's causing people to lose faith in cryptocoin though. Its all the rumors of stuck withdrawals at Celsius and other locations. I was seeing a ton of people claiming that even Coinbase is unsafe (without much evidence), but that's showing how far this "deposits scare" has come.
> 
> It doesn't matter how much BTC you allegedly have at a location if those locations just close up shop and disallow you from withdrawing. That's the fear running through the community right now.


Honestly Elon is part of the reason I personally lost faith in crypto, lol.



lexluthermiester said:


> This is not a minithread about stablecoins. If you're going to start with the nonsense you can show yourself out.


stable coins falling off their peg is indeed price news.


----------



## Bones (Jun 20, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> stable coins falling off their peg is indeed price news.


I agree, all of it is tied in together/interlaced so if the value of one changes, another is affected. 

Fact remains it's like when a market using real money is affected "Over There" and there is a ripple effect affecting our market "Over Here" - It happens and not alot you can do except bear it until it's over.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 20, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Mt. Gox is dead and tied up in Japanese court for years after crooks robbed them nearly a decade ago so doubtful as heck.











						Mt.Gox Trustee Will Repay 150,000 BTC Lost by Users in 2014 When 1 BTC was $320 - Tokenist
					

Mt. Gox's trustee would soon distribute 150,000 BTC to the exchange's creditors, a move that could possibly halt BTC's recent gains.




					tokenist.com
				




That saga is nearing its end. For all we know, the 150,000 BTC selling off was the start to this entire cryptocurrency crash. (I don't know if the Mt. Gox selloff has started yet but... its a giant pile of BTC you definitely want to be watching right now).

The Mt. Gox trove of 150,000 BTC is one of the biggest sources of "sudden BTC sell pressure" that will randomly come onto the market. The Mt. Gox saga is still not yet over, because Japanese Courts too their sweet-ass time figuring this one out, lol.



			https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20211116_announcement_en.pdf
		


The final plan to distribute the remaining pile of Mt. Gox BTC was finalized in November 2021.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jun 20, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> stable coins falling off their peg is indeed price news.


While that is true, the discussion is *exclusively* about values and market trends, thus the name of the thread. News and general discussion belong in the General discussion thread found linked below.








						General Cryptocoin Discussion
					

As many threads seem to get side-tracked with general discussion about cryptocoin, we need a thread where discussion about the subject that can meander from any one aspect as the users need it too.  This is a general discussion about cryptocoin and all topics about this subject are welcome...




					www.techpowerup.com
				



Move the off topic discussion over there folks or the mods will be asked to help you out.


----------



## R-T-B (Jun 20, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Mt.Gox Trustee Will Repay 150,000 BTC Lost by Users in 2014 When 1 BTC was $320 - Tokenist
> 
> 
> Mt. Gox's trustee would soon distribute 150,000 BTC to the exchange's creditors, a move that could possibly halt BTC's recent gains.
> ...


Aparently I was out of date on this, thanks.


----------



## trog100 (Jun 20, 2022)

monday morning.. bitcoin now at 20K with eth at 1.1K.. the downwards trend seem to have stopped for now.. 

bitcoin and eth matter everything else is just noise..

trog


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## lexluthermiester (Jun 20, 2022)

trog100 said:


> monday morning.. bitcoin now at 20K with eth at 1.1K.. the downwards trend seem to have stopped for now..
> 
> bitcoin and eth matter everything else is just noise..
> 
> trog


It's likely just rollercoastering..


----------



## ppn (Jun 20, 2022)

Part of the community just buys the dip blindly. And there is a strong incentive to keep buying the dip because it just works. But those will become weaker over time. In 2018 ETh stopped at $300 then recovered to 600 only to continue the downward trend. So there may be one last buying opportunity for those willing to lose it all. When it drops too fast it tends to recover to a less downhill slippery slope like the one in april.


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## dragontamer5788 (Jun 28, 2022)

Well, a lot of sideways movements since the last burst of discussion.

Kinda boring, which is probably good. Its like this weird state of stasis, Celsius and 3AC are both severely in trouble, and there's rumors that all sorts of other companies are related to them and their issues. But nothing so far.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jun 30, 2022)

Crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital plunges into liquidation as market crash takes toll
					

A slump in cryptocurrency prices, which has seen billions of dollars wiped off the market, has exposed a liquidity crisis at Three Arrows Capital.




					www.cnbc.com
				




Its hard to "explain" why BTC is dropping today. But my unsupported bet is it has to do with the Three Arrows Capital liquidation order?? There's some rumors going around Twitter about Tether and USDC, but I'm not sure if I can trust those stories. 

I mean, all this information is kind of a crap shot. No one really "knows" why the market is up or down on any particular day. There's just general feelings why people are selling (or on the uptrend, buying).


----------



## trog100 (Jun 30, 2022)

the everything bubble is in the process of bursting.. crypto is just part of it..

the general trend is down.. as its likely to remain for a while yet..

trog


----------



## ThrashZone (Jun 30, 2022)

trog100 said:


> the everything bubble is in the process of bursting.. crypto is just part of it..
> 
> trog


Hi,
Where you been man rounding up and burying your gold coins


----------



## Metroid (Jul 1, 2022)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Where you been man rounding up and burying your gold coins


It's funny, I warned everybody about it, some wise ones listened to me and right now are pretty good, the ones who haven't, are definitely ******, nobody believed me when I said btc would crash back below 20k and 70% chance to crash below 10k to 9.6k and when I said that btc was 65k, they laughed at me, but like I said history would repeat itself again just like 2018 and guess what, it did just that. Where are the so called professional specialists of crypto, where are they now? Anyway I have been in this scam crypto market since 2011, so I know where this thing will always go, every cycle is the same bs and the same thing happens, history always repeats itself but then again you always see sheeps, trolls and idiots saying --> "This time will be different", when a new cycle happens, and I always say -> yeah, right hehe


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 1, 2022)

Metroid said:


> It's funny, I warned everybody about it, some wise ones listened to me and right now are pretty good, the ones who haven't, are definitely ******, nobody believed me when I said btc would crash back below 20k and 70% chance to crash below 10k to 9.6k and when I said that btc was 65k, they laughed at me, but like I said history would repeat itself again just like 2018 and guess what, it did just that. Where are the so called professional specialists of crypto, where are they now? Anyway I have been in this scam crypto market since 2011, so I know where this thing will always go, every cycle is the same bs and the same thing happens, history always repeats itself but then again you always see sheeps, trolls and idiots saying --> "This time will be different", when a new cycle happens, and I always say -> yeah, right hehe


The part I didn't buy was the crash to zero (still aren't there btw).  No one was calling you on the other crap being impossible, just that it was impossible you could've known for certain.  Still is.


----------



## Metroid (Jul 1, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> The part I didn't buy was the crash to zero.  No one was calling you on the other crap being impossible, just that it was impossible you could've known.  Still is.


I never said the crash to 0, I said and predicted the crash to be 80% or more just like 2011, 2014 and 2018. Maybe I said crash to 0 regarding scamcoins known as 99% of all altcoins, that yes.


----------



## R-T-B (Jul 1, 2022)

Metroid said:


> I said and predicted the crash to be 80% or more


That must be what I was remembering.  Genuine apologies for misconstruing what you said.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 1, 2022)

RIP Voyager customers.

Adding them to the list now... Celsius, Voyager, 3AC... a few other smaller exchanges too.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jul 3, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> RIP Voyager customers.
> 
> Adding them to the list now... Celsius, Voyager, 3AC... a few other smaller exchanges too.



distrust settled in, now it's a snowball


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 3, 2022)

Things seem to have stabilized this week.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jul 4, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Things seem to have stabilized this week.



we are going down in slopes, this is one more, the trend is still down


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 4, 2022)

No it hasn't. BTC has been hovering right around $20k for 3 weeks with ETH hovering around $1200 and this week the rollercoastering seems to have leveled off.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 4, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Things seem to have stabilized this week.



In terms of dollar value, yes (or maybe, depending on how you perform your moving averages. Things are trending down on both SMA50 and SMA200 for example, but I can see a short enough reasonable SMA means it is stable today... like SMA7 or so). But with Voyager and Vauld announcing suspensions, the crypto-calamity for people continues to get worse in practice.

Its not good for crypto-coin customers to lose all of their holdings at American-based companies ("With FDIC Insurance", with fine print of course that didn't apply to the cryptocoin holdings. But I'm sure that tricked enough people into thinking that Voyager was safe).

This suspension / loss of accounts issue is far more serious than the price action. (if anything: preventing withdrawals will "save" the cryptocoin price, because the customers aren't allowed to sell anymore. Being forced to use this strategy to stop the bleeding only demonstrates the gross difficulty the stablecoin community is facing right now).


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 5, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> In terms of dollar value, yes (or maybe, depending on how you perform your moving averages. Things are trending down on both SMA50 and SMA200 for example, but I can see a short enough reasonable SMA means it is stable today... like SMA7 or so). But with Voyager and Vauld announcing suspensions, the crypto-calamity for people continues to get worse in practice.
> 
> Its not good for crypto-coin customers to lose all of their holdings at American-based companies ("With FDIC Insurance", with fine print of course that didn't apply to the cryptocoin holdings. But I'm sure that tricked enough people into thinking that Voyager was safe).
> 
> This suspension / loss of accounts issue is far more serious than the price action. (if anything: preventing withdrawals will "save" the cryptocoin price, because the customers aren't allowed to sell anymore. Being forced to use this strategy to stop the bleeding only demonstrates the gross difficulty the stablecoin community is facing right now).


I'm talking about any of that. I'm talking about actual value and the market trend, which is the topic of the thread. Take your off topic comments to the other thread where they belong, specifically here.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jul 5, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> No it hasn't. BTC has been hovering right around $20k for 3 weeks with ETH hovering around $1200 and this week the rollercoastering seems to have leveled off.








sure mate whatever


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 5, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> View attachment 253688
> 
> sure mate whatever


I said 3 *WEEKS* not 3 months.



Would you like to revise your statement? Hmm?


----------



## Bomby569 (Jul 5, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> 3 *WEEKS* not 3 months. Would you like to revise your statement? Hmm?



then i said the trend is still down, and then you said no it hasn't. Then i showed you were wrong, then you backtracked on the conversation, and now here we are. Quoting myself, sure mate whatever


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 5, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> then i said the trend is still down, and then you said no it hasn't.


That's because it isn't down since the crash in June. It's been hovering around $20,000, which is what I stated.


Bomby569 said:


> Then i showed you were wrong


No you didn't, you showed a 3 MONTH figure. I said 3 *WEEKS*.


Bomby569 said:


> then you backtracked on the conversation


No, YOU failed to understand what was stated. Context is important, as is reading comprehension. Try them sometime. Also, see edit above.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jul 5, 2022)

wtf is wrong with you, it's just as stable as it was on the last 2 slopes  The trend is down period, your wrong and i wont discuss reality with you


----------



## lexluthermiester (Jul 5, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> wtf is wrong with you, it's just as stable as it was on the last 2 slopes  The trend is down period, your wrong and i wont discuss reality with you


Yup, sure.


----------



## ppn (Jul 5, 2022)

Just doing this evanescent waves thing. proves how the whole thing is run by the trading robots that expect to see 5% change and act accordingly to make a profit, but can't keep doing it because they are all trying to do the same thing. But overall is it more likely for it to jump to the moon or gradually rollback to a stoploss.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 5, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> View attachment 253688



This really demonstrates the psychology behind pricing.

People like sticking with simple, round numbers. Furthermore, if you can "feel" the psychology behind the community, you can predict the price moving forward.

This is why the closures at Vauld, Voyager, Celsius... and potential closures elsewhere around the world, are important. We need to track the psychology of cryptocoin / stablecoin holders if you hope to predict the future. As long as BTC tends to "stick to barriers and/or resistance points" (40k, 30k, and 20k round numbers), the only real action we're going to get is psychological and community feel instead. And then it will randomly jerk in one direction after enough psychology / opinions are changed.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jul 5, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> This really demonstrates the psychology behind pricing.
> 
> People like sticking with simple, round numbers. Furthermore, if you can "feel" the psychology behind the community, you can predict the price moving forward.
> 
> This is why the closures at Vauld, Voyager, Celsius... and potential closures elsewhere around the world, are important. We need to track the psychology of cryptocoin / stablecoin holders if you hope to predict the future. As long as BTC tends to "stick to barriers and/or resistance points" (40k, 30k, and 20k round numbers), the only real action we're going to get is psychological and community feel instead. And then it will randomly jerk in one direction after enough psychology / opinions are changed.



This is not crypto exclusive, if you do this to every stock, forex, commodities they all follow these patterns inside the trend. You can either be in it for the real LONG time or the only way to make money is to follow these patterns. ANY market will always have an enormous component of pure speculation. Unless it is something absolutely extraordinary nothing goes up on down on a single continuous line.
There is always money to be make going up or down, and people are doing it, never forget that.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 8, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Mt.Gox Trustee Will Repay 150,000 BTC Lost by Users in 2014 When 1 BTC was $320 - Tokenist
> 
> 
> Mt. Gox's trustee would soon distribute 150,000 BTC to the exchange's creditors, a move that could possibly halt BTC's recent gains.
> ...



@R-T-B Speak of the devil.



			https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20220706_announcement_en.pdf
		


Mt. Gox is moving forward with their rehabilitation plans. The 150,000ish coins are about to be redistributed out "soon" (for... some definition of soon). I'm guessing this will cause some sell-pressure on BTC and drop the price a bit.


----------



## Bomby569 (Jul 8, 2022)

If someone trusts Mt.Gox after what they did (i said it) crypto is never going to have peace, that's one of the problems with it, no oversight of these idiots in charge.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 8, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> If someone trusts Mt.Gox after what they did (i said it) crypto is never going to have peace, that's one of the problems with it, no oversight of these idiots in charge.



No one trusts Mt. Gox. But the Japanese Government has captured ~150,000 BTC from Mt. Gox, and is ordering them to distribute them back out to Mt. Gox's creditors.

So the BTC market is about to be hit with 150,000 of BTC that have been time-capsuled from 2014. That's possibly a massive amount of sell pressure about to hit the BTC world.

Then again, it took 8 years to get to this point, it may take a few more months before this BTC is distributed. Still though, I expect the distribution of this treasure-trove of BTC to cause the price of BTC to drop dramatically, whenever it is released.


----------



## trog100 (Jul 17, 2022)

bitcoin and eth seem to be moving upwards.. bitcoin at 21K and eth 13% up on the day at close to 1.4K...

i have no reasons its not worth guessing at.. but the pump is definitely happening..

trog


----------



## trog100 (Jul 18, 2022)

monday morning here in the UK.. bitcoin up over 22K with eth up near 1.5K.. up is definitely the word.. eth more so than bitcoin..

trog


----------



## DeathtoGnomes (Jul 18, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> No one trusts Mt. Gox. But the Japanese Government has captured ~150,000 BTC from Mt. Gox, and is ordering them to distribute them back out to Mt. Gox's creditors.


Someones hard wallet had a leak to get captured. Umm, so 150k BTC out of how many disappeared?

Skimming over search results for the payout say they wont torpedo BTC prices, whatever that means. So no big pre-distribution sell off remains to be seen.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Jul 18, 2022)

DeathtoGnomes said:


> Someones hard wallet had a leak to get captured. Umm, so 150k BTC out of how many disappeared?
> 
> Skimming over search results for the payout say they wont torpedo BTC prices, whatever that means. So no big pre-distribution sell off remains to be seen.



150k-ish BTC is the amount remaining in the wallet. IIRC there was around 700k BTC before the crisis, but its been like 8 years so I don't really remember all the details.

IIRC, the "stolen" BTC from Mt. Gox hasn't moved. There's probably a fear that the world's collective police agencies (FBI, Interpol, etc. etc.) will track whoever touches the "stolen Mt. Gox bitcoins". But again, I haven't really paid attention to this Mt. Gox thing until recently (now that the redistribution seems closer than ever).


----------



## trog100 (Aug 7, 2022)

been away for couple of weeks.. not a lot has happened during this time.. bitcoin hovering around 23K with eth around 1.7k. 

the general feeling is that things will start to move up from here but time will tell.. feelings dont mean that much..

trog


----------



## ThrashZone (Aug 7, 2022)

trog100 said:


> thursday evening here in the UK.. bitcoin now at 58K with eth at 4K..
> 
> 58K may be the bottom but it could go a bit lower.. its hard to say..
> 
> ...


Hi,
Quite a change


----------



## DeathtoGnomes (Aug 7, 2022)

trog100 said:


> the general feeling is that things will start to move up from here but time will tell.. feelings dont mean that much..


my general feeling is that will change with the next nvidia launch.


----------



## Dristun (Aug 7, 2022)

DeathtoGnomes said:


> my general feeling is that will change with the next nvidia launch.


genuinely interested what's the thesis here, if it's not sacrasm, considering that the merge is almost upon us and there are no expectations among the market participants for any long-term successful forks


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 7, 2022)

DeathtoGnomes said:


> my general feeling is that will change with the next nvidia launch.


Unlikely. That's based on a hunch, which is based an a number of factors. Time will tell though..



Dristun said:


> genuinely interested what's the thesis here, if it's not sacrasm, considering that the merge is almost upon us and there are no expectations among the market participants for any long-term successful forks


Most GPU based coins are gearing up to switch over to Proof of Stake instead of Proof of Work models, which means that GPU's will be much less useful and much less valuable in mining.


----------



## Dristun (Aug 7, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Most GPU based coins are gearing up to switch over to Proof of Stake instead of Proof of Work models, which means that GPU's will be much less useful and much less valuable in mining.


This I understand, it's fairly obvious. Though I feel like a have a reading comprehension problem here, haha. Deathtognomes said that crypto prices will change around the nvidia launch, right? That's what I don't get. I don't even see how these two things are correlated.


----------



## DeathtoGnomes (Aug 7, 2022)

Dristun said:


> Deathtognomes said that crypto prices will change around the nvidia launch, right?


Would it have been clearer if I had said "my Magic 8-ball says..."?  I can understand how speculation gets mistaken for fact, but anything and everything relating to the future (prediction,foresight,etc.) is nothing less than speculation.  Just like others have said(speculated) that mining will switch from Eth to Ravencoin (couple others too) after the changeover.  I for one am worried that 4000 series will be botted up again when I was planning on grabbing a new card at that time. That worry provokes me to speculate negatively.

Hows that for a partial Thesis?


----------



## Dristun (Aug 7, 2022)

DeathtoGnomes said:


> Would it have been clearer if I had said "my Magic 8-ball says..."?  I can understand how speculation gets mistaken for fact, but anything and everything relating to the future (prediction,foresight,etc.) is nothing less than speculation.  Just like others have said(speculated) that mining will switch from Eth to Ravencoin (couple others too) after the changeover.  I for one am worried that 4000 series will be botted up again when I was planning on grabbing a new card at that time. That worry provokes me to speculate negatively.
> 
> Hows that for a partial Thesis?


Much better now! Number go down, gonna short with my entire account


----------



## DeathtoGnomes (Aug 7, 2022)

Dristun said:


> Much better now! Number go down, gonna short with my entire account


I hate you for making me do that, may a thousand fleas infest your account.


----------



## Bomby569 (Aug 8, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> 150k-ish BTC is the amount remaining in the wallet. IIRC there was around 700k BTC before the crisis, but its been like 8 years so I don't really remember all the details.
> 
> IIRC, the "stolen" BTC from Mt. Gox hasn't moved. There's probably a fear that the world's collective police agencies (FBI, Interpol, etc. etc.) will track whoever touches the "stolen Mt. Gox bitcoins". But again, I haven't really paid attention to this Mt. Gox thing until recently (now that the redistribution seems closer than ever).



don't quote me on this but i think i remember someone already got caught with part of the Mt. Gox stolen crypto


----------



## Bomby569 (Aug 11, 2022)

Texas paid this company to mine bitcoin during an ongoing energy crisis
					

Meanwhile, Texans are paying 50% more in electricity costs compared to last year.




					www.pcgamer.com
				




if you don't find this hilarious you're dead inside


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 11, 2022)

Please see other thread..


----------



## KLiKzg (Aug 13, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> Texas paid this company to mine bitcoin during an ongoing energy crisis
> 
> 
> Meanwhile, Texans are paying 50% more in electricity costs compared to last year.
> ...


Why would anyone want to mine BTC in current state of price & probability?


----------



## Bomby569 (Aug 13, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> Why would anyone want to mine BTC in current state of price & probability?



whit free electricity


----------



## trog100 (Aug 13, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> Why would anyone want to mine BTC in current state of price & probability?



bitcoin is (or should be) seen as a long term investment.. 

trog


----------



## KLiKzg (Aug 13, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> whit free electricity


Well, there are easier ways to get other coins...then you transfer them in BTC & pump the BTC price that way.

It is simple economics...not a science!


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 13, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> Why would anyone want to mine BTC in current state of price & probability?


Because some do not think the current condition will be permanent. They mining for futures.


----------



## KLiKzg (Aug 13, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Because some do not think the current condition will be permanent. They mining for futures.


If you could not catch me up, then try this:
- using hardware will get to 10 BTC with price of 20k USD, for example. But greater the number of BTC, it will drive the price of BTC down to 19,5k USD, example only.
Compared to:
- using hardware on some other crypto XYZ will get you number of coins worth 15 BTC
- changing them on exchange to BTC will loose you for example 5% most, which is 0,75 BTC...you are still left with 14,25 BTC
- buying 15 BTC on exchange will make price of BTC jump from 20k to 21k USD, just example

So I ask again, why would anyone try to crunch more BTC right now? Even with FREE electricity!  
It is not science, only economics.


----------



## LFaWolf (Aug 15, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> If you could not catch me up, then try this:
> - using hardware will get to 10 BTC with price of 20k USD, for example. But greater the number of BTC, it will drive the price of BTC down to 19,5k USD, example only.
> Compared to:
> - using hardware on some other crypto XYZ will get you number of coins worth 15 BTC
> ...


Those machines were built with ASICs specifically to mine BTC. I don't think they can be switched on the fly to mine something else. Also, what coins can be mined that have 75% of the value of BTC?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Aug 15, 2022)

KLiKzg said:


> If you could not catch me up, then try this:
> - using hardware will get to 10 BTC with price of 20k USD, for example. But greater the number of BTC, it will drive the price of BTC down to 19,5k USD, example only.
> Compared to:
> - using hardware on some other crypto XYZ will get you number of coins worth 15 BTC
> ...


Again, you're not thinking about the future, which is why you don't see the reasoning. That's your problem.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 15, 2022)

birdie said:


> Ethereum mining is over and done with.
> 
> Expect a huge amount of used card on the second-hand market.
> 
> ...



yep but there is no change in the price which i find a bit odd..

trog


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Sep 15, 2022)

birdie said:


> A change in the price of Eth? Why would it change? How blocks are mined/proven have zero relevance to Ethereum's use in the real world.
> 
> All the cryptos are nothing more than wild trading assets with _zero innate_ value, their value exists solely due to PR/marketing/advertising/social networks/etc.
> 
> ...


You have misunderstood ETH by the sounds of it.
Others are as you say but not ETH.
It's not the same as BTC but it's also not Luna.

Dapps make it different, give it worth etc few other coins had Dapps.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 15, 2022)

For the miners in this thread, any drop in profits?


----------



## DeathtoGnomes (Sep 15, 2022)

Someone will find something profitable enough and start a new mining trend. It could be ......... Doge coin !


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 15, 2022)

DeathtoGnomes said:


> Someone will find something profitable enough and start a new mining trend. It could be ......... Doge coin !


I believe so, as mining has died and reincarnated multiple times. Isn't there something like Raven coins?


----------



## Colddecked (Sep 15, 2022)

birdie said:


> Ethereum mining is over and done with.
> 
> Expect a huge amount of used card on the second-hand market.
> 
> ...



Alot of miners already sold off their cards while their value was still around msrp.  I don't think there will be a huge flood of cards, but definitely going to be a buyers market for a bit.


----------



## DeathtoGnomes (Sep 15, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> I believe so, as mining has died and reincarnated multiple times. Isn't there something like Raven coins?


Yea but... there is always a but.. Nothing has been proven to be sufficently profitable yet, unless you own Asic miners.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 15, 2022)

i am still running a couple machines on nicehash.. 4 cards in all.. 

basically as more people move into any given coin the difficulty goes up and the rewards drop.. it will take a while to sort itself out.. 

trog


----------



## DeathtoGnomes (Sep 15, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i am still running a couple machines on nicehash.. 4 cards in all..
> 
> basically as more people move into any given coin the difficulty goes up and the rewards drop.. it will take a while to sort itself out..
> 
> trog


Thats what I said, really.


----------



## ixi (Sep 15, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> For the miners in this thread, any drop in profits?



Havent mined for years. In 2015. mined two coins. Waiting for them to rise at 5k or 10k (per coin) . Only have gained value.


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 15, 2022)

ixi said:


> Havent mined for years. In 2015. mined two coins. Waiting for them to rise at 5k or 10k (per coin) . Only have gained value.


Good to know, but I am more curious if mining profit has dropped for current active miners.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 15, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Good to know, but I am more curious if mining profit has dropped for current active miners.


Well considering you can't mine anything but shitty value coins at the moment, heck yes.

But this is a crypto value thread and not a mining value thread.

I still am invested in Ethereum as a Proof Of Stake holder.  My earnings there haven't changed much.  Dipped a little with value but that was expected.


----------



## TheoneandonlyMrK (Sep 15, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Good to know, but I am more curious if mining profit has dropped for current active miners.


By a little over two thirds.

Though I only checked with my Vega it should be a universal rate


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 15, 2022)

Wow, big drop eh? I wonder if active miners still plan to mine other coins, or what else to do?


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 15, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Wow, big drop eh? I wonder if active miners still plan to mine other coins, or what else to do?


If I had still been mining, there is no question this'd be game over for me.

I imagine it will be for many.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 15, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Wow, big drop eh? I wonder if active miners still plan to mine other coins, or what else to do?



There's ETH-classic, and now ETH-POW (ie: just ignore the switch to proof-of-stake and hope for the best. Effectively forking the coin to keeping the proof-of-work coin alive).

At least, those are the big options people seem to be considering right now.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 16, 2022)

With the switch over to PoS GPU mining is over. Mining for other coin might still be a thing but ETH is done.

EthClassic is nothing as is ETH-POW. They are very unlikely to gain the traction and support ETH had.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 16, 2022)

i am still actively mining (in a small way) just to see what happens.. so far its not looking good..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 16, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i am still actively mining (in a small way) just to see what happens.. so far its not looking good..
> 
> trog


I was hoping someone would chime in and drop that one. Didn't expect it to be you Trog. Hearing this everywhere, GPU mining is officially dead.


----------



## hat (Sep 16, 2022)

Seems to be the case here as well. With two 1070s, I was making about $1/day with Ethereum. Now it's down to $.26 or so.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 16, 2022)

hat said:


> Seems to be the case here as well. With two 1070s, I was making about $1/day with Ethereum. Now it's down to $.26 or so.


Wow you're making THAT much?


----------



## trog100 (Sep 16, 2022)

i am currently running two machines.. one 3080 and 3070 machine and one 3070 and 2080ti.. using nicehash they are showing about 40 cents per day..

my main 8 card mining machine has been switched off for the last couple of months.. 

in the UK and euro land gpu mining has been hit with a double whammy.. energy prices going up massively.. in the UK i think we will be paying around 40 pence per unit.. basically to earn that 40 pence its now costing around £2 in energy.. he he..

i wont sell my cards i will just sit on them and see what happens..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 16, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i wont sell my cards i will just sit on them and see what happens..


No, you should sell them now while prices will still gain you a reasonable return. The cryptomarket is going to take years to recover from this crash. Even then it's going to be a mess and your GPU will be useless to you. Things have changed permanently.


----------



## Zach_01 (Sep 16, 2022)

Pretty much mining was dead even before PoS with the already diminishing returns from difficulty and energy cost.
I'm not going to lie... I did it too for a couple of years.

Time to return GPUs to normal pricing, and if cryptos want to be (in) the future they should find a different way than wasting all this energy.


----------



## N/A (Sep 17, 2022)

3090 profit is 4 cents and dropping. Now 2 cents. Life moves pretty fast.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 17, 2022)

Zach_01 said:


> I'm not going to lie... I did it too for a couple of years.


I think if you weren't at least initially fascinated with the idea, you weren't reading about it much.  It was cool, technologically speaking.  Humans and greed ruined it, but in hindsight, how could that not have been the end game for Proof of Work?  Makes me feel silly for ever believing, lol.

If anything, I was overly idealistic to an extreme fault, I think.



lexluthermiester said:


> Wow you're making THAT much?


Probably on some side coin.  I don't expect that to hold as diff rises on those.

It's ugly if you want to keep mining.  Best answer is to write this off for the ugly mistake it was.


----------



## Zach_01 (Sep 17, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> I think if you weren't at least initially fascinated with the idea, you weren't reading about it much.  It was cool, technologically speaking.  Humans and greed ruined it, but in hindsight, how could that not have been the end game for Proof of Work?  Makes me feel silly for ever believing, lol.
> 
> If anything, I was overly idealistic to an extreme fault, I think.


I was reading, I too believed at the time that the tech has a lot to offer. I still do but seems that it will take longer than I thought, if ever.


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 17, 2022)

Zach_01 said:


> I was reading, I too believed at the time that the tech has a lot to offer. I still do but seems that it will take longer than I thought, if ever.


That's sort of where I am.  My only question now is if the eventual benefit will outweigh the harm?  Time will tell.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 17, 2022)

Zach_01 said:


> I was reading, I too believed at the time that the tech has a lot to offer. I still do but seems that it will take longer than I thought, if ever.



Remember, Bitcoin came out at the same time as Apple's "App store", in the winter of 2008/2009.

This isn't a "new technology" any more. We've had 13+ years of Bitcoin, trying to find a good use of it. Generally speaking, an idea that's obviously good and popular will be adopted by many players (ie: Google's app store, and the Windows store soon afterwards)


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 17, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Remember, Bitcoin came out at the same time as Apple's "App store", in the winter of 2008/2009.


And bitcoin is as ancient as something like Amazons Fire OS usability wise now.  I'm as convinced as ever that more things have yet to come, heck good things have already come from core blockchain ideas.  This is just the tip of the iceberg.  Not all tech operates at "appstore" pace.

But wait...  this is the price discussion thread?


----------



## trog100 (Sep 17, 2022)

bitcoin and eth are now trending gently upwards..

trog


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 17, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Remember, Bitcoin came out at the same time as Apple's "App store", in the winter of 2008/2009.
> 
> This isn't a "new technology" any more. We've had 13+ years of Bitcoin, trying to find a good use of it.



Bitcoin, Ethereum and a few other crypto tokens (I don't like calling them crypto currencies) have been accepted as valid payment by some merchants although support has fluctuated on and off over the years (Tesla Motors stopped doing this for example).

The far more interesting aspect has been the blockchain technology itself -- not crypto tokens as an end product.

Crypto tokens are here to stay although hopefully proof-of-work mining's heyday is over.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 17, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin and eth are now trending gently upwards..
> 
> trog



Honestly, its all sideways to me. Its been in and around $20,000 for BTC for months.

ETH is more volatile, and I can say that ETH is moving. I dunno which direction, but its moving somewhere.


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 17, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Honestly, its all sideways to me. Its been in and around $20,000 for BTC for months.
> 
> ETH is more volatile, and I can say that ETH is moving. I dunno which direction, but its moving somewhere.



As always, it depends on what timeframe you are looking at. ETH is going up if you look at the last 24 hours. ETH is going down if you look at the last year.







None of the three technical indicators here (Bollinger Bands, RSI, and MACD) show anything resembling an imminent change of direction from ETH. Volatility is pretty low (per Bollinger Band width) and there is very little trend or momentum (the two MACD signals are hovering around the zero baseline).

The 24 hour graph is relevant for day traders. A 1 year graph is more suitable for people who are planning to buy and hold for several weeks/month. A 5 year timeframe is more suitable for those who plan to buy and hold for the long-term (>1 year).

Quick, what has been the better crypto investment over the past year: BTC or ETH?






Answer: neither!

*BTC *(blue) and *ETH *(green) have the same equally terrible ROI over the past twelve months although the latter was expectedly more volatile.

For giggles, I've included Class B shares of Berkshire-Hathaway (*BRK-B* in red) as a comparison.

Enjoy!


----------



## phill (Sep 17, 2022)

Gave up mining ages ago, I think when our first price increase for the electric came in, I just thought nope, no point and cut losses but kept the hardware I had running.  Things been heading down hill for a while so now I just use what I have currently for folding or crunching, depends what rig does what.  

I think Proof of Stake made things impossible and with the electric just going up and up here,  your just wasting electric and not gaining anything back.  In the US its different because of the majority having cheap electric in comparison.  I think the new price cap here is about £0.35 a unit for electric and about £0.12 for gas possibly?  No good at all for mining, even with solar panels


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 17, 2022)

phill said:


> In the US its different because of the majority having cheap electric in comparison.


It's not cheap enough to be of any profit to be worth it to continue mining. When the gain is $0.04 per day and dropping & rates around $0.26 per kilowatt hour(generally), the cost far over-shadows the gain.


----------



## phill (Sep 17, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> It's not cheap enough to be of any profit to be worth it to continue mining. When the gain is $0.04 per day and dropping & rates around $0.26 per kilowatt hour(generally), the cost far over-shadows the gain.


Unless you can afford to do it or there's alternative coin that's showing promise, I gave up ages ago


----------



## R-T-B (Sep 18, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> It's not cheap enough to be of any profit to be worth it to continue mining. When the gain is $0.04 per day and dropping & rates around $0.26 per kilowatt hour(generally), the cost far over-shadows the gain.


Yeah I live in cheap hydro land and even I couldn't turn a profit right now.

Not that I would even try, but I've looked at the metrics out of curiousity.  It's bad.  And honestly, thats good.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Sep 18, 2022)

I'd argue mining was a big hinderance in crypto gaining any kind of true value as a respectable monetary tool. Ignoring the climate issues, too many people were put off by the fact that people could produce coins seemingly out of thin air (in their eyes).


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Sep 18, 2022)

ShiBDiB said:


> I'd argue mining was a big hinderance in crypto gaining any kind of true value as a respectable monetary tool. Ignoring the climate issues, too many people were put off by the fact that people could produce coins seemingly out of thin air (in their eyes).



It had pros / cons from an adoption perspective.

The main benefit is that early-adopters benefit from the rising coin prices, leading to a MLM-like "free marketing" scheme where legions of online users would effectively shill the coin for free (in hopes that their own coins would become more valuable). This only became "off-putting" after many years: when it became clear that later-adopters had far less profits from the early adopters. As energy costs rose due to difficulty (and this year, unrelated geopolitical reasons), fewer and fewer people would join in.

Other coins tried to restart that early-adopter growth status, but it only lead to 51% attacks (because smaller coins have far less hashing power, therefore its impossible to secure), or rug-pulls.


----------



## Bomby569 (Sep 18, 2022)

so what will be (or people will attempt to) the next big mining coin?


----------



## LFaWolf (Sep 18, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> so what will be (or people will attempt to) the next big mining coin?


That is my question too, or is mining with GPUs dead for good?


----------



## Zach_01 (Sep 18, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> That is my question too, or is mining with GPUs dead for good?


Some may continue to do so, but I believe that the ROI of 2015~2020 era has gone for good...


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 18, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Yeah I live in cheap hydro land and even I couldn't turn a profit right now.
> 
> Not that I would even try, but I've looked at the metrics out of curiousity.  It's bad.  And honestly, thats good.


That's the thing, no one can. The coins that are still GPU mining centric are worth little or nothing and are unlikely to gain any traction anytime soon, if ever.



LFaWolf said:


> That is my question too, or is mining with GPUs dead for good?


Yes. And even if it's not...


Zach_01 said:


> Some may continue to do so, but I believe that the ROI of 2015~2020 era has gone for good...


...this.


----------



## cvaldes (Sep 18, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> so what will be (or people will attempt to) the next big mining coin?



My hope is that PoW crypto token mining is dead (good riddance).

With the market's quick rejection of chia, my guess is that other attempts to move to other PC hardware will have a high risk of failure. With recent skyrocketing energy prices, PoW seems even less desirable than before.

During the height of the mining craze, Tom's Hardware regularly published a table that projected how long it would take to break even mining ETH with a GPU. Their estimated electricity costs were hilariously low; if you subbed in a more realistic electricity rate, it averaged out to about 18 months to pay off a GPU (at street prices at the time). Even with a tumbling GPU market, lower crypto value and higher energy costs have made crypto mining unprofitable.

Crypto tokens like raven that can be mined with GPUs have not shown any noteworthy value increase before or after the ETH Merge and the more people who mine raven, the lower the return.

Some miners are taking the "wait and see" approach. My best guess is that they will simply see their equipment lose value quickly as those who dump their mining rigs on the market try to recoup a few bucks. Once Nvidia and AMD launch their next generation GPUs, the value of ETH mining rigs will drop precipitously.


----------



## trog100 (Sep 19, 2022)

bitcoin now at just above 18K with eth down near 1.3K.. eth is down 10% on the day..

things are looking a bit grim.. he he..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Sep 20, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin now at just above 18K with eth down near 1.3K.. eth is down 10% on the day..
> 
> things are looking a bit grim.. he he..
> 
> trog


It's 20+% down on the week. The ETH POW to POS switch plus all the other events are continuing to hit the cryptocoin market hard. This is much worse than even I was expecting...


----------



## trog100 (Sep 20, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> It's 20+% down on the week. The ETH POW to POS switch plus all the other events are continuing to hit the cryptocoin market hard. This is much worse than even I was expecting...



i use the daily figure because it shows what is happening now.. plus it cant be altered by playing with start and end points..

so far i am looking at big theoretical losses compared to things at the peak.. both in used hardware values and the value of my stash.. i say theoretical because none of it becomes real unless i sell..

its still all totally unpredictable though.. anything could happen.. 

trog


----------



## DavidS (Sep 22, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> Bitcoin, Ethereum and a few other crypto tokens (I don't like calling them crypto currencies) have been accepted as valid payment by some merchants although support has fluctuated on and off over the years (Tesla Motors stopped doing this for example).
> 
> The far more interesting aspect has been the blockchain technology itself -- not crypto tokens as an end product.
> 
> Crypto tokens are here to stay although hopefully proof-of-work mining's heyday is over.


The issue with bitcoins is not the instrument itself, but rather the fact that when making payments, receiving payments, or acting as an intermediary in bitcoins, it can be challenging to determine whether the resulting transaction is for a legal or illegal purpose. As a result, banks are likely to choose the less risky course and avoid doing business with those who handle bitcoins.

The answer to this problem lies with bitcoin intermediaries and regulators rather than with banks.


----------



## Bomby569 (Sep 22, 2022)

DavidS said:


> The issue with bitcoins is not the instrument itself, but rather the fact that when making payments, receiving payments, or acting as an intermediary in bitcoins, it can be challenging to determine whether the resulting transaction is for a legal or illegal purpose. As a result, banks are likely to choose the less risky course and avoid doing business with those who handle bitcoins.
> 
> The answer to this problem lies with bitcoin intermediaries and regulators rather than with banks.



There are lots of banks willing to do shady stuff, i don't think that's a real issue. More like this type of transactions used to be "controlled", not done by joe something. I'm sure "crypto, banks and illegal" is more common then "crypto, banks and legal", it's just not at the reach of everyone.

If some banks don't have specialised personal for this i eat my 3060ti.




edit: i think this is what's been keeping crypto down, ever since Mt Gox









						Well knock me down with a feather, it's yet another $160 million crypto hack
					

You could almost set your watch by their frequency.




					www.pcgamer.com


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 3, 2022)

What's keeping crypto down right now is general economic downturn.



DavidS said:


> The issue with bitcoins is not the instrument itself, but rather the fact that when making payments, receiving payments, or acting as an intermediary in bitcoins, it can be challenging to determine whether the resulting transaction is for a legal or illegal purpose. As a result, banks are likely to choose the less risky course and avoid doing business with those who handle bitcoins.
> 
> The answer to this problem lies with bitcoin intermediaries and regulators rather than with banks.


This is price discussion sir and that aspect of bitcoin has nothing to do with day-to-day price.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 3, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> What's keeping crypto down right now is general economic downturn.


Too be fair there are other things.


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 3, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Too be fair there are other things.


Yes that is true.  But if you want a one liner that's the biggie.


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 10, 2022)

At this point it's hard to see many differences between crypto and fiat. Clearly there are people controlling and manipulation it's value, it suffers with economic problems and central banks interventions in the economy just like fiat, their gains are taxed, it's not that easy or fee free to transfer money using crypto, and there is even the endless "hacks" aka thefts.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 10, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> At this point it's hard to see many differences between crypto and fiat. Clearly there are people controlling and manipulation it's value, it suffers with economic problems and central banks interventions in the economy just like fiat, their gains are taxed, it's not that easy or fee free to transfer money using crypto, and there is even the endless "hacks" aka thefts.











						celsiusnetworth - Blockchain - tecnología del futuro
					

Celsius está en concurso de acreedores desde julio. Celsius publica los datos de unos 600.000 clientes. Pero, en realidad, ¿por qué?




					celsiusnetworth.com
				




This wasn't a hack or theft. It was just a banking collapse


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 10, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> At this point it's hard to see many differences between crypto and fiat.


Except that crypto has no physical equivelent, can't be used in common markets and isn't easily exchanged between individual citizens. So whatever..


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 10, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Except that crypto has no physical equivelent, can't be used in common markets and isn't easily exchanged between individual citizens. So whatever..



It shouldn't have physical equivalent as it isn't even physical, that would be weird.

It's as easy to exchange fiat as it is to exchange crypto, if you pay the fees, and exchanging crypto in most cases isn't cheap at all. I have ways to send fiat currency to someone else for free even to other countries (sure we had to have the same bank, but still it's there, it exists) and there isn't a way to do it with crypto in general. Fees. Same shit.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 10, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> It shouldn't have physical equivalent as it isn't even physical, that would be weird.


BINGO! That's very much the point.


Bomby569 said:


> It's as easy to exchange fiat as it is to exchange crypto, if you pay the fees, and exchanging crypto in most cases isn't cheap at all.


That's another point. Cash has no transaction fees.


Bomby569 said:


> I have ways to send fiat currency to someone else for free even to other countries (sure we had to have the same bank, but still it's there, it exists) and there isn't a way to do it with crypto in general.


Not everyone can do that.

Regardless, we're off topic. Going back on topic;
Unisocks seems to be climbing high. While it one of the more unstable coins it is a higher priced out.








						Coinranking | Cryptocurrency Price List - Top 50 Coins Today
					

View the list with all cryptocurrency prices of today. View live values of Bitcoin, Ethereum and thousands more.




					coinranking.com
				



$50k+


----------



## ShiBDiB (Oct 14, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Unisocks seems to be climbing high. While it one of the more unstable coins it is a higher priced out.



You know this thread has run its course when the best we can come up with is "this no name shitcoin is spiking.. I admit it's a no name shitcoin but them green lines tho"


----------



## OneMoar (Oct 14, 2022)

is there a coin accually called shitcoin ? 
can we pull a musk here


----------



## RandallFlagg (Oct 14, 2022)

OneMoar said:


> is there a coin accually called shitcoin ?
> can we pull a musk here









						Shitcoin
					

The first shitcoin that is actually not shit




					shitcoinproject.com


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 14, 2022)

ShiBDiB said:


> You know this thread has run its course when the best we can come up with is "this no name shitcoin is spiking.. I admit it's a no name shitcoin but them green lines tho"


That's not really your call to make. This thread is meant to provide conversation about value treads on an ongoing basis.



RandallFlagg said:


> Shitcoin
> 
> 
> The first shitcoin that is actually not shit
> ...


It had to happen sooner or later..


----------



## trog100 (Oct 24, 2022)

it seems that bitcoin is now in danger of being seen as a safe asset.. whoops.. 

trog


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Oct 24, 2022)

trog100 said:


> it seems that bitcoin is now in danger of being seen as a safe asset.. whoops..
> 
> trog



"Whoops"? Isn't stability one of the critical characteristics of a viable currency?


----------



## cvaldes (Oct 24, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> "Whoops"? Isn't stability one of the critical characteristics of a viable currency?



Which is why many financial professionals don't use the term crypto currency. They call them crypto tokens.

As for stability, at least ETH has been relatively stable ever since the merge.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Oct 24, 2022)

cvaldes said:


> Which is why many financial professionals don't use the term crypto currency. They call them crypto tokens.
> 
> As for stability, at least ETH has been relatively stable ever since the merge.



Regardless of terminology finance folks use, Bitcoin (specifically, don't know about any other crypto, and please correct me if I'm wrong) was explicitly designed with the eventual goal of being used as, or as a basis for, currency.  From that perspective, I'm not sure how being stable enough to be considered a "safe asset" rather than a growth vehicle is a Whoops rather than a Win.


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 24, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> It had to happen sooner or later..


It's actually rather ancient.



lexluthermiester said:


> That's another point. Cash has no transaction fees.


There's crypto without transaction fees too.  But not many of them are what you'd call, ah, stable.  The tend to be volatile even more than most of what we discuss here.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 24, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> Regardless of terminology finance folks use, Bitcoin (specifically, don't know about any other crypto, and please correct me if I'm wrong) was explicitly designed with the eventual goal of being used as, or as a basis for, currency.  From that perspective, I'm not sure how being stable enough to be considered a "safe asset" rather than a growth vehicle is a Whoops rather than a Win.



my use of the term whoops was meant in a humorous way.. 

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 25, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> There's crypto without transaction fees too. But not many of them are what you'd call, ah, stable. The tend to be volatile even more than most of what we discuss here.


That's my point. If they're not stable, the value doesn't exist and can not act as a currency.


----------



## trog100 (Oct 25, 2022)

bitcoin and eth are on the move.. 

trog


----------



## ThrashZone (Oct 25, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin and eth are on the move..
> 
> trog


Hi,
Right on time for 40 series release


----------



## trog100 (Oct 26, 2022)

bitcoin up 7% on the day with eth at 14%..

trog


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 26, 2022)

ThrashZone said:


> Hi,
> Right on time for 40 series release


Neither are relevant to gpus.


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 26, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> Neither are relevant to gpus.



this topic is about crypto, not gpu's


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 29, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin up 7% on the day with eth at 14%..
> 
> trog


Yeah, they are. I wonder what's causing it?


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 29, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Yeah, they are. I wonder what's causing it?



pump and dump?


----------



## trog100 (Oct 29, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Yeah, they are. I wonder what's causing it?



i dont honestly know and i dont think anybody does..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 30, 2022)

trog100 said:


> i dont honestly know and i dont think anybody does..
> 
> trog


Usually there is a reason for such a big uptick like this. With GPU mining dead and gone, it can not be the new GPU's one the market for eth. Kinda weird..



Bomby569 said:


> pump and dump?


Maybe..


----------



## The red spirit (Oct 30, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> "Whoops"? Isn't stability one of the critical characteristics of a viable currency?


Do you honestly treat cryptocoins as currencies? I just can't see them that way, however they are valuable (even if volatile) and transactable. I would want to call it an asset, but it's as much asset as gold or silver, so not really an asset either.



lexluthermiester said:


> That's another point. Cash has no transaction fees.


But you pay fees for every bank card transaction.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Oct 30, 2022)

The red spirit said:


> Do you honestly treat cryptocoins as currencies? I just can't see them that way, however they are valuable (even if volatile) and transactable. I would want to call it an asset, but it's as much asset as gold or silver, so not really an asset either.



I don't touch the stuff myself, but casually observe from afar out of interest.  BTC was named Bit_coin_, after all, and has broadly been referred to as a crypto_currency_ its entire existence.  So it was presumably designed with the intent to function as such, and currently does to a limited extent.  A stable valuation would (again, presumably) help that function.

If a given crypto[currency/coin/token] doesn't stabilize and become transactable or useful in some other fashion, then it's just a plaything in this bizarre trading game we're currently watching.


----------



## p-o-db-o-q (Oct 30, 2022)

Eventually, there will be THE stablecoin, backed by nothing, with a forever fixed price. When such coin comes and when fiat gets replaced by cbdc, the fall of every asset that doesn't serve a purpose will be imminent and there will be no more competing cryptocurrency technologies and networks.


----------



## MentalAcetylide (Oct 30, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> pump and dump?


 I must admit I'm guilty of this behavior myself. I pump myself up with food & then later hit the bathroom.
I still think crypto is a bad investment & only for whales with money to burn. Fun to play around with, but not something I would risk any significant amount of money on. Its hard to say where its going to go for certain. With the push towards globalism and consolidating markets, I think some form of it is going to end up becoming a single widely accepted currency.


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 30, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> this topic is about crypto, not gpu's


Even more reason the 40 series is out of place here then.


----------



## The red spirit (Oct 31, 2022)

80-watt Hamster said:


> I don't touch the stuff myself, but casually observe from afar out of interest.  BTC was named Bit_coin_, after all, and has broadly been referred to as a crypto_currency_ its entire existence.  So it was presumably designed with the intent to function as such, and currently does to a limited extent.  A stable valuation would (again, presumably) help that function.
> 
> If a given crypto[currency/coin/token] doesn't stabilize and become transactable or useful in some other fashion, then it's just a plaything in this bizarre trading game we're currently watching.


But is it really that bizarre? People pay top dollar for some Pokemon cards and other "valueless" stuff.


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 31, 2022)

The red spirit said:


> But is it really that bizarre? People pay top dollar for some Pokemon cards and other "valueless" stuff.


MtGox stood for "Magic The Gathering Online eXchange"

Because they literally started out trading physical cards.  So yeah.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Oct 31, 2022)

The red spirit said:


> But you pay fees for every bank card transaction.


Not always, and that's not cash.

Let's get back on topic folks..


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 31, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> MtGox stood for "Magic The Gathering Online eXchange"
> 
> Because they literally started out trading physical cards.  So yeah.



and nintendo started selling physical cards, what's your point


----------



## The red spirit (Oct 31, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Not always, and that's not cash.
> 
> Let's get back on topic folks..


If you use MasterCard or Visa card, you pay a fee, it's just already included in product price. And it's not negotiable, you always pay. That's how those companies make money. It's little known fact, but fact nonetheless. Not  to mention that banks themselves have various small fees everywhere and for almost anything, but that's besides the point I was trying to make.


----------



## R-T-B (Oct 31, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> and nintendo started selling physical cards, what's your point


I guees just that apparently valueless cards can have value and the tie in with crypto there is stronger than many realize.

But honestly there wasn't really a point.  Just fun trivia supporting the prior statement.  

I did admitedly forget this is the value thread again, though...


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 31, 2022)

p-o-db-o-q said:


> Eventually, there will be THE stablecoin, backed by nothing, with a forever fixed price. When such coin comes and when fiat gets replaced by cbdc, the fall of every asset that doesn't serve a purpose will be imminent and there will be no more competing cryptocurrency technologies and networks.



Yes. Its called a bank account. In fact, you can have many "stablecoins" today. Such as savings accounts, checking accounts, high yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and money market funds.

Oh, but the "stablecoin" of the cryptocoin world is high risk, as per economic theory. You cannot peg a currency with more yield than the risk-free rate... unless you take on risk. Even money market funds have more risk than savings accounts (and you get paid a higher rate on MMFs like VMFXX).

But yeah. Lets say I wanted something "pegged" to a dollar. I'll use VMFXX and SWVXX (these can only be bought/sold at 4pm during market hours however). If I needed something that was "faster", maybe I'd use a checking account instead.

----

Stablecoins are absolutely possible. But they're somewhat uninteresting, because all they've done is recreate risky bank accounts of the days of yore. To guarantee that these bank-accounts remain stable, you need strict government regulation ensuring that their assets are truly backed by something behind the scenes. Otherwise, *the banks will lie* to their customers.


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 31, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Yes. Its called a bank account. In fact, you can have many "stablecoins" today. Such as savings accounts, checking accounts, high yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and money market funds.
> 
> Oh, but the "stablecoin" of the cryptocoin world is high risk, as per economic theory. You cannot peg a currency with more yield than the risk-free rate... unless you take on risk. Even money market funds have more risk than savings accounts (and you get paid a higher rate on MMFs like VMFXX).
> 
> ...



It's not at all reasonable to compare crypto to bank accounts, i don't even understand how people can make statements like these. Bank accounts are nothing, the value is the currency they held. 

There can be a stablecoin, if there is trust in the system. The problem is all the shitcoins, the thefts, the scams. Bitcoin if it was the only crypto i bet could be a stable asset.

Pegging is stupid, crypto was created exactly to avoid the fiat problems.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 31, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> It's not at all reasonable to compare crypto to bank accounts, i don't even understand how people can make statements like these. Bank accounts are nothing, the value is the currency they held.
> 
> There can be a stablecoin, if there is trust in the system. The problem is all the shitcoins, the thefts, the scams. Bitcoin if it was the only crypto i bet could be a stable asset.
> 
> Pegging is stupid, crypto was created exactly to avoid the fiat problems.



The USDC stablecoin "promises" that 1000 USDC == $1000 USD.

A savings account "promises" that 1000 in the bank account == $1000 USD. In fact, this trust is so strong, saying "I have $1000" implies that its in a savings account, because no one even bothers with physical cash anymore. The USD is already digitalized in practice.

The value of a bank account is the trust in our banks. When a bank says it has $1000 USD, no one denies that trust. If Celsius says it has 1000 USDC, do you trust it?



> if there is trust in the system



There in lies the rub. How do you build trust?

Banks have built their trust over the past 100 years. Since the Great Depression, no one has lost money in their savings account. There are very few people left alive who even remember when banks lost our money. Even MMFs (the riskiest of the accounts I talked about earlier), have an incredible streak of reliability, only ~2 times they ever lost the peg in the last 100 years. A "stablecoin" loses its peg like every month or two, so its not like we can trust those pegs.

Meanwhile, all the hacks and rugpulls show that Cryptocoins are fully untrustworthy. Earning trust is the one and only legitimate thing about being a bank, and all these crypto-financial services are failing at it.

There's a reason why the historians are saying that "Cryptocoin community is speedrunning financial theory". Its because they keep making the same mistakes made 100 to 200 years ago, repeating all the mistakes of the financial systems of the past one by one. Its not "how" you hold money that's important, its the *TRUST* that's important. But no one is working on the trust part yet. So... I guess we'll just wait around and see how long it takes for the community to figure that out.

The Stablecoin dudes are at least on the right track. They leverage pre-existing trust with pre-existing institutions (IE: USD) to build a veneer of trust. But its not enough, because that veneer is broken during bankruptcies and other issues (see Celsius).


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 31, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> The USDC stablecoin "promises" that 1000 USDC == $1000 USD.



i think there's a miscommunication, i think there can be a stablecoin but not pegged to a fiat currency, because it's exactly to avoid it that crypto was created, it makes no sense, it's like having green energy produced with coal.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Oct 31, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> i think there's a miscommunication, i think there can be a stablecoin but not pegged to a fiat currency, because it's exactly to avoid it that crypto was created, it makes no sense, it's like having green energy produced with coal.



No one is buying cryptocoins for a stable value. That's my point. People have savings accounts for that. Or money-market accounts, or money-market funds if you wanna get a bit fancier / riskier than that. Or bonds if you want to get even riskier.

Yes, the cryptocoin community has rediscovered the thousand-year-old idea of asset securitization through some form of contract. The question is what they do with it, and whether it makes something useful. It doesn't actually matter what's on the contract per se. It can be a futures contract, a bond payment (either 1 year duration or even infinite duration), it could be a stock / equity, promise of future profits, corporate structures, preferred security (debt that slowly turns into equity), call options, CDOs, CDS that protects CDOs of CDOs or whatever. Then you can cut these instruments up, pass them around and make money with them.

You can even back it with a billion computers running a "mining" program. But the fundamentals kinda-sorta don't matter. Its about trust.

-------

The cryptocoin community is buying cryptocoins right now because they hope to "ride the next bull wave" in 5 years or whatever. As long as the community _wants_ volatility, they will get volatility.


----------



## Bomby569 (Oct 31, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> No one is buying cryptocoins for a stable value. That's my point.



Every asset has speculation, even wheat.
Anyway sure until there is trust it's mostly speculation, but is not the end goal or shouldn't be, wasn't suppose to be


----------



## trog100 (Nov 8, 2022)

bad things seem to be happening in the crypto world.. how bad is yet to be seen.. 

trog


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 8, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bad things seem to be happening in the crypto world.. how bad is yet to be seen..
> 
> trog


Seems like "FTX Token" is the center story happening today.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 8, 2022)

trog100 said:


> bad things seem to be happening in the crypto world.. how bad is yet to be seen..
> 
> trog



Something exploded, making a big mess.  The least impacted crypto here is -4.75%.   Maybe the start of a black swan event.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 8, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> Something exploded, making a big mess.  The least impacted crypto here is -4.75%.   Maybe the start of a black swan event.



FTX is currently exploding.

Seems like "FTX Token" (FTT) was their token, and FTX is some kind of cryptocoin exchange.


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 8, 2022)

It is just a sell-the-news event. I doubt it is crypto wide selloff.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bina...e-ftx-token-holdings-after-recent-revelations
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cr...ces-plan-to-liquidate-entire-ftx-native-token


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 8, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> I doubt it is crypto wide selloff.


Except that's what seems to be happening.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 8, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> It is just a sell-the-news event. I doubt it is crypto wide selloff.
> https://cointelegraph.com/news/bina...e-ftx-token-holdings-after-recent-revelations
> https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cr...ces-plan-to-liquidate-entire-ftx-native-token



Well, the image I posted earlier would say it is.  4-9% losses on 95%+ crypto is what that showed.

And now it does start to look like a black swan event.  The vast majority of these are >= 10% loss (far right column is % down) :


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 8, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> Except that's what seems to be happening.



I thought the FTX issue was fixed now that Binance is buying them out?

Well, consider myself fully confused on today's price actions. If anyone has a better theory for what the hell is going on, I'm all ears.

EDIT: Wait, FTX Token is still dropping? Is FTX Token about to drag down Binance?


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 8, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I thought the FTX issue was fixed now that Binance is buying them out?


I think something interesting is going on.








						Binance to liquidate its entire holding of rival FTX’s native token
					

Changpeng Zhao intends to dump his entire holdings of FTT for risk management reasons right at a critical time, with Alameda Research saying it will buy everything “today” for $22 each to defend key support trend line.




					fortune.com


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 8, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> I think something interesting is going on.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Old news, by like... a few hours.

Current news is:









						Crypto giant Binance agrees to buy rival FTX amid 'liquidity crunch'
					

Binance has signed a letter of intent to acquire FTX, delivering a surprising twist following a public spat between the world's two largest crypto exchanges.




					techcrunch.com
				




Hard to keep up. A lot of hour-by-hour news events going on right now.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 8, 2022)

both bitcoin and eth are tanking like crazy at the moment.. things seemed to have improved but it didnt last long..

panic seems the only word that comes to mind..

trog


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 8, 2022)

trog100 said:


> both bitcoin and eth are tanking like crazy at the moment.. things seemed to have improved but it didnt last long..
> 
> panic seems the only word that comes to mind..
> 
> trog


With all the crazy that's going on, that is not surprising.


----------



## ThrashZone (Nov 8, 2022)

trog100 said:


> both bitcoin and eth are tanking like crazy at the moment.. things seemed to have improved but it didnt last long..
> 
> panic seems the only word that comes to mind.. *he he..*
> 
> trog


Hi,
Damn you forgot ending with he he.. so there I fixed it for you


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 8, 2022)

It's getting worse.  Broader equity markets seem to have been drug down as well. Treasury bonds, the ultimate safe-haven, have held onto gains but seem to have stalled (prices up, yield down).   There may be some domino effects going on here.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Nov 8, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> Broader equity markets seem to have been drug down as well.



This the start of the quantitative tightening taking hold perhaps?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 8, 2022)

Outback Bronze said:


> This the start of the quantitative tightening taking hold perhaps?



Equity back above 0%, so you're wrong, lol. /s

Seriously though: the QT / Fed Rate Hikes / Hawkish Fed behavior has already changed how investors think months ago.









						U.S. Fund Flows: Investors Pull Back in September
					

Tumbling equity markets and declining bond prices drove some investors to the exits.




					www.morningstar.com
				




I've got another topic about the broader financial market if you wanna talk those issues. But there's been no real change for the past few months. The big change to behavior was April or so, when the Fed rate hikes really kicked in. Investors piled out of Bonds, and active-investors began to sell stocks. Passive stock investors did not change their behavior however (and even today, passive stock investors still continue on their buy the dip kind of thinking).

More discussion here: 
	

			https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/money-and-investing-savings-accounts-bonds-stocks-options-and-more.298118/
		


---------

Whatever is going on today is clearly isolated to the BTC / Cryptocoin world. BTC down, Coinbase Down, FTX down, ETH down.

VTI? BND? SPY? Neutral to even up/positive right now. Clearly uncorrelated.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 8, 2022)

Outback Bronze said:


> This the start of the quantitative tightening taking hold perhaps?



That's not my opinion. 

From a US perspective - There is still way too much excess cash floating around, and the Fed has barely done anything about it so far.  I think there remains real risk of true hyper-inflation, possibly world wide.

To give an example, this is excess savings in the US.  Look at where we started in Mar 2020 :





This shows inflation by fairly specific category - blue is deflation, orange is inflation. 





Here, I've clicked on all the dark blues and a bunch of the oranges.  If you look through these, it's pretty apparent - outside of electronics and a few very specific things like sporting events, prices are rising a whole lot faster than the official CPI.  It's just being lowered by those areas where there is 'deflation'. 






And just today :









						‘Hyperinflation’ And ‘Societal Collapse’—Why The Fed And Inflation Could Cause The Bitcoin Nightmare To Come True
					

One of the world's biggest hedge funds has warned the global economy is on the path to hyperinflation and risks societal collapse if surging prices are not reined in...




					www.forbes.com
				




The Fed holdings in April 2022: 





They've done almost no QT :


----------



## Outback Bronze (Nov 8, 2022)

Wow nice charts!

Well from what I'm seeing here down under we will have a lot more pain on the way.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 8, 2022)

Outback Bronze said:


> Wow nice charts!
> 
> Well from what I'm seeing here down under we will have a lot more pain on the way.



This is something to keep in mind.  A rising stock market is expected when inflation is goes hyper.  The same is likely to be true of crypto :


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> They've done almost no QT :



You're ignoring the rise of 0% interest rates to 3.75% interest rates, which is incredibly hawkish (and effectively is destroying money).

Proof is in the pudding.





US Savings are now averaging only 3.5% recently. Yes, a lot of people saved up during COVID19 but a lot of that money has been spent / disappeared by now. Pre-COVID19, we were saving 7% or so, so we're well below our "previous" saving rate as a country.

The FOMC is incredibly hawkish, and the "destruction of money" is at the highest rates its been in decades, and likely to grow higher as more-and-more people become concerned about inflation. Furthermore, CPI has dropped to 6.5% (down from 9% earlier this year). We're actually on the right track.

If you think I'm wrong, feel free to buy TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), which make more money in times of inflation. I-Bonds are an easier buy IMO as well but have a $10,000 limit. (I did get my I-bonds for the year, locking in at the previous 9.6% inflation rate). Most economic data is showing a severe destruction of cash flow / savings. Inflation continues to decline (though not as much of a decline as we wanted... it is in fact declining by all measures).






						Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
					

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index




					www.bea.gov
				




PCE is the preferred methodology of measuring inflation (even if the US Government itself uses CPI). PCE is down to 6.2% on an annualized basis.



			BEA Interactive Data Application
		






--------









						Here are some signs that inflation is calming down
					

Lately, products that posted some of the most notable price surges last year have seen slumping prices.




					www.axios.com
				




It takes a while for these measures to kick in, but as early as August 2022 we were seeing the effects of this hawkish policy and "demand destruction" so to speak. Used Car inventory shot up dramatically in August. A few months later (September, October), we're seeing more and more signs of inflation calming down.

We need more time, and it probably won't be controlled until late 2023. It just takes a long time for this crap to take effect. But the Fed is on the right track for sure.



RandallFlagg said:


> This is something to keep in mind. A rising stock market is expected when inflation is goes hyper. The same is likely to be true of crypto :



And how much did the stock market / crypto go up when inflation hit 9% in March?

Too many stocks are growth-strategy, which seems to do poorly during inflation. If the cost of goods goes up, then promises of future-wealth disappears. Inflation is only good if your companies are *currently* making things. But if you're just a company that constantly promises to "make something awesome later" (but are losing money right now, like Uber, AMC, Gamestop, etc. etc.), then inflation just kills you before you take off.

Seems to be the same thing with cryptocurrencies. They were an awful inflation hedge.


----------



## trog100 (Nov 9, 2022)

wednesday morning here in the UK.. the crypto decline (crash) continues.. bitcoin down at 17k with eth just above 1.2K.. things are not looking good.. 

trog


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 9, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> You're ignoring the rise of 0% interest rates to 3.75% interest rates, which is incredibly hawkish (and effectively is destroying money).
> 
> Proof is in the pudding.
> 
> ...



High interest rates do not remove money from the economy.

Look up reverse repo and understand who that interest is being paid to.

The only way the Fed removes money from the economy is by selling its assets.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> High interest rates do not remove money from the economy.
> 
> Look up reverse repo and understand who that interest is being paid to.
> 
> The only way the Fed removes money from the economy is by selling its assets.







Have you seen the CCC-loan rate in the past few months? Its gone ballistic, through the roof.

Companies (especially debt-laden companies) are paying 16%+ for their debt, making it harder-and-harder for various loans to be issued to them. This is the destruction of money that I'm talking about. If companies can't borrow (ie: 16% is a LOT more expensive than 7%), then they won't expand.

This lines up perfectly with the +3.75% interest rate hike of the past few months. When the risk-free loan rate is 3.75%, then banks will charge everyone else more. More on mortgages, more on car loans, and more on company-debt. This has an effect of removing money from the economy. Fewer mortgages happen, fewer car loans (and therefore car sales) happen, fewer company debt (and therefore expansion / new companies) happen.

Yeah, the idea is to pay banks 3.75, so that banks charge more for everything they do. We're finally past the ridiculous zero-interest-rate policies and probably for good. The 2010s period of hype is finally over and dead. The times were good for some, but there were too many ridiculous projects funded (WeWork, Uber, MoviePass) that only harmed us as a society IMO. Companies actually have to make money again (especially to service their own debt/operations) again.

And not just a little bit of money either. The lower-grade debt is now 16%+, and expected to rise even more as these interest rate hikes reach 4.5% through 5% (or maybe higher, depending on how high the Fed Rate hikes go). Its a lot harder to run a debt-laden company today at 16% or tomorrow at 20%+, rather than running such a company at 7.5%.

------

Lets look at this Twitter buyout for instance. Twitter borrowed $13 Billion to fund Elon Musk's takeover bid in a leveraged buyout. At 10%, that's $1.3 Billion/year the company needs to make now to fund its debt. At 16%, that's $2 Billion/year. Its big 3700 person x $200,000 per person layoff (I'm guessing $200k per person)? That's only 740-million, aka the difference between 10% and 16%. IE: Twitter's mass layoffs only covered the increase in debt interest-costs from 10% to 16%. He still needs to find another $1.3 Billion in cost savings (and/or revenue) to survive.

EDIT: I dunno how much of the debt was fixed-rate vs adjustable. I assumed adjustable for the above paragraph as a point. There's a HUGE difference from 10% and 16%.

Morgan Stanley and other banks are sitting on Twitter's debt. They're literally unable to sell it to the public. Twitter is "the last" buyout of the last era, and the banks are the bagholders. Who will want to take this debt off of the banks now that we know interest rates are rising higher, and the company has a $13 Billion hole in its asset sheets?


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 9, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> View attachment 269230
> 
> Have you seen the CCC-loan rate in the past few months? Its gone ballistic, through the roof.
> 
> ...




This is way off topic and you fundamentally don't understand what you are talking about.  Higher rates in theory will slow the velocity of money.  However, our  current rates in the US - and especially in places like the EU - are lower than inflation.   Way lower.  This means anyone with substantial amounts of cash gets poorer each day.  They are better off spending that money on something - property, futures, something.  Rates are nowhere near where they need to be.

And if you think inflation is beaten, look beneath the covers of the broad CPI numbers for just a moment.  This is core CPI up to September - looks like it accelerated to me :




Back up a bit to 5Y chart and there is nothing but a blip in core inflation - not even as big a dip as the last time inflation supposedly 'peaked' in 2021.

The broad number that includes food and energy flattened - entirely because gas prices went down, and much of that because oil was artificially suppressed by releasing 1M bbl/day from the US SPR.  Give it a couple more months and your eyes will be rather forcefully opened to the 'transient' nature of such an action.





As far as I-bonds, I have $40,000 in I-bonds, I started buying them in 2021 and again in early 2022 when I saw this was going out of control and the Fed was doing nothing.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> This means anyone with substantial amounts of cash gets poorer each day. They are better off spending that money on something - property, futures, something.



Cash is one of the best performing assets this year. I'm holding onto more cash today than ever before: ~10% or so.



















RandallFlagg said:


> As far as I-bonds, I have $40,000 in I-bonds, I started buying them in 2021 and again in early 2022 when I saw this was going out of control and the Fed was doing nothing.



Then buy TIPS.





Oh wait, inflation went down this year. So TIPS have lost money.

I-Bonds are the easy one, because they can't lose money. TIPS are what you buy if you truly believe inflation will get worse, because inflation MUST go up for TIPS to make money. If we have a decline from 9% inflation to 6% inflation, TIPS lose money


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 9, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Cash is one of the best performing assets this year. I'm holding onto more cash today than ever before: ~10% or so.
> 
> View attachment 269239
> 
> ...



When people say cash is a good place to be, they are usually talking about cash equivalents.  

If you have $500,000 and want to 'keep your powder dry' you don't leave it in savings accounts.  You put it into a short term (like 1-12 month) bond ladder or CD ladder.   

What you are talking about is speculation that the value of the underlying asset will go up or down - *trading* bonds is different from holding to maturity and is very much like trading stocks.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> When people say cash is a good place to be, they are usually talking about cash equivalents.



I'm talking Money Market Funds like VMFXX or SWVXX.


RandallFlagg said:


> If you have $500,000 and want to 'keep your powder dry' you don't leave it in savings accounts. You put it into a short term (like 1-12 month) bond ladder or CD ladder.



Locking into a 0.4% 1Y CD and/or bond in January 2022 is one of the worst things you could have done with your money, aside from locking into a 10Y at 1.6% or 30-year at 2%.

One of the best performers this year is Cash (aka: VMFXX or SWVXX), or maybe BIL (no longer than a 3-month maturity). Even 6-month bonds have been blown out by these incredible rate hikes. VMFXX/SWVXX (and other money market funds) have substantial 1-day and 1-week maturities. They were incredibly hard to beat this year in practice.



RandallFlagg said:


> The broad number that includes food and energy flattened - entirely because gas prices went down, and much of that because oil was artificially suppressed by releasing 1M bbl/day from the US SPR. Give it a couple more months and your eyes will be rather forcefully opened to the 'transient' nature of such an action.



Remove one more item: shelter.









						Sticky Price Consumer Price Index less Food, Energy, and Shelter
					

Graph and download economic data for Sticky Price Consumer Price Index less Food, Energy, and Shelter (CRESTKCPIXSLTRM679SFRBATL) from Mar 1967 to Nov 2022 about shelter, core, CPI, inflation, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



					fred.stlouisfed.org
				








And that figure is down in the past couple of months (since the Fed's rate hikes began to kick into effect).

Housing prices are *only beginning* to be affected by these price hikes. But there's only so many houses that can sell at 7% mortgages instead of 3% mortgages.

The other big purchase usually affected by loans is also dropping.









						You're going to see cheaper used car prices in the coming months
					

Wholesale used car prices are falling fast, and should lead to lower prices on car lots.




					www.axios.com
				








--------

Bringing it back to cryptocurrencies... BTC is a terrible asset right now. Inflation aside.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 9, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> I'm talking Money Market Funds like VMFXX or SWVXX.
> 
> 
> Locking into a 0.4% 1Y CD and/or bond in January 2022 is one of the worst things you could have done with your money, aside from locking into a 10Y at 1.6% or 30-year at 2%.
> ...



You know there is this thing where people just argue on the internet because they want to be 'right'. 

I don't do that with money.   Just one post ago you were saying cash, now you're saying short term CDs are horrific.   Your number about 0.4% 1Y CD is a hyperbolic distortion of what I said and what is on the market.   Do you even know what a bond ladder is?


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> Do you even know what a bond ladder is?



Yes. My bond ladder is doing worse than my cash position.

Or have you not noticed? My 1Y rates from last year are locked to 0.4%, while my *CASH* is getting 3.5% from VMFXX. I'm glad that I actually am holding onto some cash.

Have you looked at your bond ladder? Have you calculated your yields from a 1Y bond ladder? You're still locked into November 2021, December 2021, January 2022, Februrary 2022 rates (my ladder is monthly).

What's your ladder? Is it doing better than my VMFXX holdings?


----------



## the54thvoid (Nov 9, 2022)

At this point, can I add, this is a crypto thread and you've both veered way off topic. Please move your discussions to the other thread with bonds and share info.



			https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/money-and-investing-savings-accounts-bonds-stocks-options-and-more.298118/


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 9, 2022)

Bringing us back to topic then... Big drops all around today so far.

BTC at $17,000, I even saw some $16,xxx numbers for a brief few minutes. Volume is huge, tons of people coming in to support the price / buy the dip or something.

Anyone know exactly what is causing this today? FTX / FTX Token / Binance seems to be the main story to follow, but I really don't know.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 9, 2022)

trog100 said:


> wednesday morning here in the UK.. the crypto decline (crash) continues.. bitcoin down at 17k with eth just above 1.2K.. things are not looking good..
> 
> trog


I'm not so sure. The overall value is up from 45 days ago, but it's still down from 90 days ago.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 10, 2022)

$36B USD in assets just goes boom.  Those affected include Blackrock and Tiger Global.  

They will undoubtedly be looking to get their money back from the assets held by FTX.  

Those assets would mostly be the bitcoin 'held' by FTX for their customers.  Since this isn't a bank and it's unregulated, that's not protected.





Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried deletes a tweet :









						Sam Bankman-Fried quietly deletes his claim that FTX customer funds are safe
					

The future of client assets locked on crypto exchange FTX remains uncertain, with a Binance deal that can bail out the company depending on a closer look at the books.




					finance.yahoo.com


----------



## kapone32 (Nov 10, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Bringing us back to topic then... Big drops all around today so far.
> 
> BTC at $17,000, I even saw some $16,xxx numbers for a brief few minutes. Volume is huge, tons of people coming in to support the price / buy the dip or something.
> 
> Anyone know exactly what is causing this today? FTX / FTX Token / Binance seems to be the main story to follow, but I really don't know.


You hit the nail on the head it was all over CNBC for the last few months but it has created some huge ripples since the deal was done yesterday. On another note AMD is at $61, Nvidia has lost a ton of money in share price and the situation in Ukraine becomes more complex and dangerous.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 10, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> $36B USD in assets just goes boom.  Those affected include Blackrock and Tiger Global.



So we know that Binance had ~$500 million in FTT that's basically worthless now. But how many cryptocoin funds/exchanges are going to lie about their exposure to FTT now?

Much like how Luna/Terra ended up destroyed Three Arrows Capital (and the collapse of _THAT_ then caused Celsius and Voyager collapses), a collapse of this magnitude is going to chain-react and cause other groups to collapse.

Blackrock on the other hand has 10,000,000 million (aka: 10+ Trillion) in assets. Its a big bank and a few billion dollars gained (or lost) here or there is "basically a Tuesday" for them. I don't see this spreading out to the mainstream economy, aside from embarrassing the cryptobro executives inside of Blackrock.

EDIT: Celsius's collapse was in June, while Terra/Luna's collapse was in May. So these sorts of chain-reactions are delayed by a month or so. I guess we'll find out who was exposed to this risk within the next month or two...


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 10, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> So we know that Binance had ~$500 million in FTT that's basically worthless now. But how many cryptocoin funds/exchanges are going to lie about their exposure to FTT now?
> 
> Much like how Luna/Terra ended up destroyed Three Arrows Capital (and the collapse of _THAT_ then caused Celsius and Voyager collapses), a collapse of this magnitude is going to chain-react and cause other groups to collapse.
> 
> ...



I basically agree, even the hyperbolic 36B number I gave is not systemic meaning not going a lot outside of Crypto.  However, crypto has been damaged badly by these repeated exchange collapses.  I expect to see more of that in the coming months and year.  

FTX was seen as some kind of crypto exchange savior mere weeks ago, with FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried lauded by the press and most analysts.  I looked and found *one* fairly obscure site which had actually done its research some months ago on FTX and did not like what they found.  Their focus was on the claims that FTX had 'saved' some other exchanges and their investors, which they concluded was essentially a lie that had been spun up by FTX and the media.  They did not have kind words for Bankman-Fried.  This one, among hundreds of articles.  

Objectively, this would imply that 99% of what one reads about the stability / ability of these exchanges and their leadership is total bunk.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 11, 2022)

FTX is bankrupt.  Bankman-Fried steps down.

Worth noting that "depositors" aka customers are not "stakeholders".  That would be Blackrock and so on that funded the company.  The people that put up the money to fund them get theirs first :

"FTX said that it would begin a process to review and monetize assets for stakeholders."









						FTX Files for Bankruptcy, CEO Sam Bankman-Fried Resigns
					

The bankruptcy will likely wipe out billions of equity value, leaving investors with stiff losses. It will maroon the crypto and cash deposits belonging to a legion of customers. FTX faces investigations or asset freezes from regulators and prosecutors around the world.




					www.wsj.com
				




After gambling away their "depositors" crypto.  Given it is not regulated, I'd bet this is 100% legal.









						FTX Tapped Into Customer Accounts to Fund Risky Bets, Setting Up Its Downfall
					

Crypto exchange FTX lent billions of dollars worth of customer assets to fund bets by its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research, setting the stage for the exchange’s implosion, a person familiar with the matter said.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## mb194dc (Nov 11, 2022)

We'll find out one way or another soon if it is legal... When things start going majorly wrong in the economy it's quite normal to have blow ups like this.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 11, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> Worth noting that "depositors" aka customers are not "stakeholders". That would be Blackrock and so on that funded the company. The people that put up the money to fund them get theirs first :



Yup. Celsius 2.0. That should have woken up everyone to the nuances of US bankruptcy law.

Bondholders are more senior than depositors. In the USA, it is assumed that FDIC insurance will cover depositors. This doesn't work of course for unregulated securities, and is just part of the dangers of leaving the main financial system. I dunno if USA bankruptcy holds in this case though... but people really need to be paying attention to the intricacies of how the other crypto-services companies operated. Celsius, Voyager, Mt. Gox, etc. etc.



RandallFlagg said:


> After gambling away their "depositors" crypto. Given it is not regulated, I'd bet this is 100% legal.



FTX is in the Bahamas. It probably is legal there. Bahamas certainly don't have a reputation of having good financial laws or regulations.


----------



## freeagent (Nov 11, 2022)

As much as I was miffed with the whole GPU situation a while ago, I hate to see people lose something they worked hard for, and invested in. That sucks. 

Sorry fellas.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 11, 2022)

Before  we get the hate for Blackrock, Tiger Capital and so on, people should note that those companies invest other people's money.

So behind those names are millions of normal people, grandma's living off their pension and so on.  Those people made a decision to let those companies invest their money, they took less risk and get less return.  

Part of the deal when those companies invest in something like FTX via debt issuance or contracted investment capital, is that they get first dibs on any assets in a default.  If it were to work any other way, no serious investor would put their money into a Blackrock or Vanguard fund in the first place.


----------



## the54thvoid (Nov 11, 2022)

Yeah. Pension funds often get shafted when things collapse.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 11, 2022)

the54thvoid said:


> Yeah. Pension funds often get shafted when things collapse.



Its a lose-lose situation. Do you have the Pension fund lose everybody's money? Or do you have (like in the USA), 401k plans and have people *lose their own money*?

Pension funds allow everyone to blame the fund manager at least. When your own 401k plan collapses, you only really have yourself to blame.

Pension funds certainly give a lot of value when things work. But in these circumstances, seeing them lose hundreds-of-millions of bucks over this does make me worry. They're hurting the people they promised to protect.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 11, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Its a lose-lose situation. Do you have the Pension fund lose everybody's money? Or do you have (like in the USA), 401k plans and have people *lose their own money*?
> 
> Pension funds allow everyone to blame the fund manager at least. When your own 401k plan collapses, you only really have yourself to blame.
> 
> Pension funds certainly give a lot of value when things work. But in these circumstances, seeing them lose hundreds-of-millions of bucks over this does make me worry. They're hurting the people they promised to protect.



They're not going to lose 100%. 

Most of what I've read implies that the creditors will get between 50% and 80% of their capital back, though it likely will take years perhaps a decade.  Mt. Gox creditors are still waiting, for example.  The depositors are probably SoL.

Pension fund up in Ontario reportedly had 0.05% of their investment in FTX.


----------



## Hardcore Games (Nov 13, 2022)

I saw some news that FTX was ripped off, seems that BTC etc have had it.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

__





						Sam Bankman-Fried Claims To Be In Bahamas As Flight Tracker Show His Private Jet Flying To Argentina
					





					www.msn.com


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

Argentina and the USA has extradition law in place, so it is a curious decision to go there.


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 13, 2022)

Hardcore Games said:


> I saw some news that FTX was ripped off, seems that BTC etc have had it.


Meh, define "had it."  It's been way way lower in the past.

Sure stings if you were an investor, but this will not kill it if that was in your fortune telling.


----------



## mb194dc (Nov 13, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Argentina and the USA has extradition law in place, so it is a curious decision to go there.



Yup, the DOJ has some long tentacles... 

If Bankman-Fried has fled to Argentina with $1 Billion of stolen client funds crypto.,. ?

Going to be in deep, deep trouble.


----------



## Outback Bronze (Nov 13, 2022)

Um, There is a BTC conference in Argentina to be fair from the 10-13th Nov.

LABITCONF 10th Edition In Argentina - Bitcoin Magazine - Bitcoin News, Articles and Expert Insights

Whether he is attending is anybody guess I suppose.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 13, 2022)

The endless parade of exchanges slowly killing crypto will never end. 
I remember at the very beginning when everyone warned about not keeping crypto in exchanges.



RandallFlagg said:


> High interest rates do not remove money from the economy.
> 
> Look up reverse repo and understand who that interest is being paid to.
> 
> The only way the Fed removes money from the economy is by selling its assets.



High interest rates do remove money from the economy. That's their purpose. Cost of money goes up, less money for investment. Money goes to bonds and other non productive products.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> The endless parade of exchanges slowly killing crypto will never end.
> I remember at the very beginning when everyone warned about not keeping crypto in exchanges.
> 
> 
> ...



Nope.  Try again.


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

Took literally 5 seconds -
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...rates translate to,for consumers to hold debt.
https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/MoneySupply.html


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Took literally 5 seconds -
> https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/how-does-money-supply-affect-interest-rates.asp#:~:text=Higher interest rates translate to,for consumers to hold debt.
> https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/MoneySupply.html



If you actually read that, they are saying interest rates 'should' and 'usually'.  This is because 'usually' (in the last 50 years) when interest rates rise, the Fed is also doing QT.

Interest rates are not the same as money supply.  They affect *velocity* of money, not supply.

Money supply in the US has actually gone up since April 2022.  The drawdown in April was due to the Fed opening the Reverse Repo Facility - which pays more interest to banks that deposit there, so as soon as they raised rates banks moved more cash there :


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

Getting off topic here.

For the uninformed of the M1 vs M2 vs M3 - https://www.clearcapital.com/resources/glossary-of-terms/m1-m2-and-m3/#:~:text=M1, M2 and M3 are,large time deposits in banks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

M1 is down -




M2 is down -


----------



## dgianstefani (Nov 13, 2022)

I would say buy the dip, but it's going to dip further.

Gold.

Buy gold.


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

dgianstefani said:


> I would say buy the dip, but it's going to dip further.
> 
> Gold.


I actually think about doing the same thing, but not sure when it will bottom out. I think BTC will be around $10k and Eth will be $500? Hold them for another 3+ years and the cycle will repeat.


----------



## dgianstefani (Nov 13, 2022)

It's the fertilizer and logistics crash that is impacting the market, I think everything else is secondary or knock-on effects.

By crash, I mean shortage and disruption.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Getting off topic here.
> 
> For the uninformed of the M1 vs M2 vs M3 - https://www.clearcapital.com/resources/glossary-of-terms/m1-m2-and-m3/#:~:text=M1, M2 and M3 are,large time deposits in banks.
> 
> ...



It's actually not off topic since money supply has a strong correlation to all asset values - including, and especially, highly speculative ones like crypto.

M1 and M2 do not include the banks deposits at the Fed.

That money is included in M3.  It has not been destroyed or otherwise sterilized.   That money represents excess cash in the system - money that the banks can't find a better use for.

If the Fed were to lower rates, that would mean the Fed pays lower interest on those deposits to the bank, and the banks would then be more likely to seek higher returns elsewhere.   i.e., buying bonds or giving out home/auto loans and such.

So yes, raising rates does give the banks a reason not to loan out money on riskier investments.   _*It decreases the velocity of money, as I stated.  It does not destroy money.*_

However, that money is still there.  The broad money supply hasn't changed.  The banks can pull it back at any time.  If for example inflation were to spike to 15%, they would not be likely to want to keep their money in a 3.8% Fed account.

To put this in proper perspective, this is the broad M3 money supply from July 2018 to now.

Pre-covid there was about 15.5T M3.  Today there is 21.7T.

That is a 40% expansion of the money supply, and it has barely changed despite 4 months of the Fed selling treasuries.

In fact, the entirety of the change has been from the Fed selling the treasuries it bought with newly fabricated money during the pandemic.  About 300B so far.





And here is a little perspective on M1 :






This is why I say there is a very real possibility of hyperinflation.


----------



## dgianstefani (Nov 13, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> This is why I say there is a very real possibility of hyperinflation.


Combined with famine and war.

Maybe not in the west, we're too insulated and typically exporters of food, but we'll certainly see problems.

Hopefully Crypto sticks around, it's useful for keeping money honest (theoretically).


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

Of course you can adjust the time period of the charts to show there are more money supply than ever. The US Gov pumped $8 trillion into the economy since the pandemics. So many ways to spin stats and charts. But since Jan 2022, after the Fed has raised the interest rate, M1 and M2 are down.

M3 is no longer published by the US Central Banks. Money deposited into the banks, while still out there, are not in "circulation" buying stuff and causing inflation.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

dgianstefani said:


> Combined with famine and war.
> 
> Maybe not in the west, we're too insulated and typically exporters of food, but we'll certainly see problems.
> 
> Hopefully Crypto sticks around, it's useful for keeping money honest (theoretically).



Yes, it's not something I hope for an for the most part, not something I'm prepared for.  I expect the Fed to get this under control.  The problem I see, is that there is tremendous political pressure on them to do things that will *not* get it under control. 

The big thing here is, in not inflation adjusted terms, the formulae for GDP is Velocity of money X Money supply.  They jacked up money supply to the moon to get GDP to recover. 

Their problem now is velocity picking up.  They can lower velocity by raising rates, but while there is that much extra cash floating around you can bet at some point it will get unleashed.  Something will happen, some market(s) will go nuts to the upside and the banks will throw their money out there, or supply will crater on something and they'll throw their money at that.  They have to remove the cash.



LFaWolf said:


> Of course you can adjust the time period of the charts to show there are more money supply than ever. The US Gov pumped $8 trillion into the economy since the pandemics. So many ways to spin stats and charts. But since Jan 2022, after the Fed has raised the interest rate, M1 and M2 are down.
> 
> M3 is no longer published by the US Central Banks. Money deposited into the banks, while still out there, are not in "circulation" buying stuff and causing inflation.



So you admit that the money is still there.  That was my point.  Interest rates do not reduce money supply, they reduce velocity of money which tamps down on GDP and demand.  The Fed selling its assets does remove money.  They bought treasuries with newly printed money.  They remove money by selling those treasuries they bought, the money they are paid is destroyed.

That asset sale, 300B so far, is what reduced money supply.  This isn't that hard.

If you want to get into more detail, look for the answer to these two questions :
What happens to the interest paid on treasuries that the Fed holds?
Where does the money to pay banks 3.8% on the 2T they have deposited with the Fed come from?

The answer to both of those questions is inflationary.


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> Yes, it's not something I hope for an for the most part, not something I'm prepared for.  I expect the Fed to get this under control.  The problem I see, is that there is tremendous political pressure on them to do things that will *not* get it under control.
> 
> The big thing here is, in not inflation adjusted terms, the formulae for GDP is Velocity of money X Money supply.  They jacked up money supply to the moon to get GDP to recover.
> 
> ...


But then you said someone is flat out wrong, even though in two articles that I posted, they said higher interest rates do reduce the money supply. Hmmm 

The answer is not as clear cut as you made it out to be. Both M1 and M2 are down.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> But then you said someone is flat out wrong, even though in two articles that I posted, they said higher interest rates do reduce the money supply. Hmmm
> 
> The answer is not as clear cut as you made it out to be. Both M1 and M2 are down.



If you actually read the article, it does not say that.  You're over-simplifying it.

It's talking about Fed policy.  When the Fed is raising rates, money supply "should go down" is what they say.  That's because the Fed would be trying to do two things at once, raise rates and reduce money supply.  They are not the same thing.

Like I said, the Fed already reduced money supply by 300B by selling assets.

And besides, as I said before when a bank deposits money at the Fed, that's not reflected in M1. 
M1 "*(1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions"

That money that they exclude, it's still there. * If inflation spikes, and I as a banker can buy a AAA rated corporate bond with a 15% yield, I'm going to pull my money out of that Fed bank and buy that bond. 

The Fed has other tools to remove money from general circulation.  For example, they can require higher reserve amounts of banks.  This would force the banks to deposit or otherwise keep a higher percentage of their deposits - not loan them out.  They haven't taken those steps yet, which tells me something else is going on.


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> If you actually read the article, it does not say that.  You're over-simplifying it.
> 
> It's talking about Fed policy.  When the Fed is raising rates, money supply "should go down" is what they say.  That's because the Fed would be trying to do two things at once, raise rates and reduce money supply.  They are not the same thing.
> 
> ...



Of course I read the articles. Of course I know what I am talking about, because I worked in these fields. Higher interest rates should reduce money supply. They have an inverse relationship. I am not saying you are wrong, but the other guy is also not wrong. There is no clear cut answer to the question.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Of course I read the articles. Of course I know what I am talking about, because I worked in these fields. Higher interest rates should reduce money supply. They have an inverse relationship. I am not saying you are wrong, but the other guy is also not wrong. There is no clear cut answer to the question.



Interest rates by themselves do not reduce money supply.  There's an assumption that other things are being done when people say that.  Otherwise, you would be able to explain how a high interest rate removes money from the economy - but you won't be able to, because it doesn't.

As a point of fact, if done with no other policy changes, raising rates will increase money supply.


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> Interest rates by themselves do not reduce money supply.  There's an assumption that other things are being done when people say that.  Otherwise, you would be able to explain how a high interest rate removes money from the economy - but you won't be able to, because it doesn't.
> 
> As a point of fact, if done with no other policy changes, raising rates will increase money supply.


They do. Both articles showed you how, years of working in this space showed me how.

Again, my final reply is, the answer is complicated.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> They do. Both articles showed you how, years of working in this space showed me how.
> 
> Again, my final reply is, the answer is complicated.



As what, a financial advisor?  I've known many, they are mostly idiots, sorta like saying a real estate agent is a good person to talk to for a real estate investor.  

I'm perfectly ok if people want to believe that fallacy.  It is complicated, but raising rates merely means the Fed pays more interest on deposits from banks - that inflates money supply.  That is a fact.  Those deposits though, mean that money is stationary, it's not moving around in the broader economy.  Its velocity is almost zero, except for the new money being printed to pay the banks the interest.  

You haven't really said anything here to discount any of that.  You just keep saying that interest rates lower money supply, with no facts or logic.


----------



## LFaWolf (Nov 13, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> As what, a financial advisor?  I've known many, they are mostly idiots, sorta like saying a real estate agent is a good person to talk to for a real estate investor.
> 
> I'm perfectly ok if people want to believe that fallacy.  It is complicated, but raising rates merely means the Fed pays more interest on deposits from banks - that inflates money supply.  That is a fact.  Those deposits though, mean that money is stationary, it's not moving around in the broader economy.  Its velocity is almost zero, except for the new money being printed to pay the banks the interest.
> 
> You haven't really said anything here to discount any of that.  You just keep saying that interest rates lower money supply, with no facts or logic.


Both articles stated so. How much "facts" do I need to provide? If you are in any financial space, you would know that there are many factors that can make the economy move, but apparently you don't work in that space so it is okay. Even the Fed cannot just push a button and make the market moves the way they want.

I worked for a huge investment bank that shamelessly asked for government bailout, not a financial advisor.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 13, 2022)

Yo, you know I love a good inflation discussion like everyone else. Except... Cronos, Crypto.com's token, is collapsing right now. -51% in just the past week. You can also see the 1-month statistic to see how sharp of a dropoff this all is.










Big speculation that Crypto.com is the next exchange to go bust. I'm not sure how related they are to FTX / FTT or any of the stuff from last week, but this price action is pretty severe and bodes poorly for Crypto.com.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Nov 13, 2022)

Just saw coinbase is up almost 13% on friday. They're gonna gain a bunch of customers that fled FTX and flee crypto.com. 

The best crypto investment right now is probably buying coinbase stock and not buying actual crypto.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 13, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Yo, you know I love a good inflation discussion like everyone else. Except... Cronos, Crypto.com's token, is collapsing right now. -51% in just the past week. You can also see the 1-month statistic to see how sharp of a dropoff this all is.
> 
> View attachment 269841
> 
> ...



I don't see why anyone would continue to use an *unregulated* crypto exchange, except pure convenience or stupidity, believing they can deliver on super high yields (20% some of them claim).  I would imagine that all of them are frauds to varying degrees.

A savior for crypto, if it appears, will likely come from the regulated traditional investment companies.  Ones that you can trust will not run off and do stupid things with your crypto, like apparently any of these exchange could do - and not even go to jail for it.  

I imagine Fidelity will make money from the transactions themselves, scraping some fraction of a % for their service.  That's what I would look for in this space, not some company promising 'yield' on your crypto.  Paying 'yield' means they are investing your crypto, and they are unregulated, so they could be doing anything with it.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 13, 2022)

ShiBDiB said:


> The best crypto investment right now is probably buying coinbase stock and not buying actual crypto.



Coinbase is -5% this past week and -75% year-to-date.

Coinbase is a play on volume. They make money the more people are buying/selling cryptocoins. Volume is down, *SEVERELY* down, all across the board. The number of cryptocoin users / traders has shrunk to massive lows. Bitcoin transactions-per-day have been declining all year long.


----------



## ShiBDiB (Nov 13, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> A savior for crypto, if it appears, will likely come from the regulated traditional investment companies. Ones that you can trust will not run off and do stupid things with your crypto, like apparently any of these exchange could do - and not even go to jail for it.



That's already coinbase. It was shunned because it has higher fees, but being a publicly traded company it is held to a standard that the other exchanges are not. 

They sent out an email after the FTX news dropped explaining this.









dragontamer5788 said:


> Coinbase is -5% this past week and -75% year-to-date.



Have you looked at the stock market? Everything is down, crypto is also shitting the bed. I'm just speaking in general terms that coinbase seems like the safer long term investment than any coin at the moment.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 13, 2022)

ShiBDiB said:


> Have you looked at the stock market? Everything is down, crypto is also shitting the bed. I'm just speaking in general terms that coinbase seems like the safer long term investment than any coin at the moment.



If you started the year with $100,000 and invested into VTI, you'd be at $75,000. If you invested into COIN instead, you'd be at $25,000, or 3x worse than normal stock market stuff.

-------

Anyway, I have another topic for stocks: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/...ccounts-bonds-stocks-options-and-more.298118/

You know what has done really well this past year? Cash, strangely enough. I've been holding some. Its the ol' bear strategy, hold cash through a crisis. Its an oldie but a goodie strategy. Anyway, I'd suggest we talk about stock market / bond market stuff in there rather than here.

This topic is nominally about cryptocoins. And the current big mover right now is crypto.com.


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 13, 2022)

Folks were getting off topic...


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 14, 2022)

This seems to be turning into a trend...

There is an old saying in the markets.  

Panic early and beat the rush.







This is indicative to what I've been seeing on many threads :


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 14, 2022)

The collapse of FTX is going to have far-reaching, long-term effects. BTC and ETH seem to be holding there value ok, but a lot of the rest are tanking severely.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 14, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> The collapse of FTX is going to have far-reaching, long-term effects. BTC and ETH seem to be holding there value ok, but a lot of the rest are tanking severely.











						Important Update: Forward Through Adversity
					

At AAX, we have always put our users first, and we would like to share with you the following updates regarding our current situation. We are hopeful that as a community we can brave through these troubling times together.




					trends.aax.com
				






> In this light, withdrawals have been suspended to avoid fraud and exploitation.



Erm... bullshit. The only thing to fear is a bank-run, except pausing withdrawals will cause bankruns. I'm definitely getting that "domino effect" feeling, lots of different exchanges are looking bad right now, causing users to withdraw funds en masse, causing more crypto-tokens / exchanges to get into trouble. Good ol' fashioned bank run.

Apparently, AAX isn't related to FTX directly at least, in that AAX doesn't have any FTT or funds stored at FTX. So this is an example of that "far reaching" effect you're talking about.


----------



## mb194dc (Nov 14, 2022)

If you think an exchange might have a similar model to FTX, leveraging client funds? Then it's quite rational to pull your money out.  

If they're pausing withdrawals it's because they don't have the money?


----------



## trog100 (Nov 14, 2022)

it seems the herd is being culled.. bitcoin and eth have just had a slight uptick.. not much but noticeable..

trog


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 14, 2022)

there is still a lot to go down for all the coins, and a lot more scams around crypto to go bust in the way. Fun times ahead


----------



## dorsetknob (Nov 14, 2022)

Just Waiting for the First State sponsered/controlled C Currency to go tits-up Crystal bollocks says it will eventualy happen


----------



## lexluthermiester (Nov 14, 2022)

trog100 said:


> it seems the herd is being culled.. bitcoin and eth have just had a slight uptick.. not much but noticeable..
> 
> trog


It was a slight bounce-back. Everything seemed to have had one.


Bomby569 said:


> there is still a lot to go down for all the coins, and a lot more scams around crypto to go bust in the way. Fun times ahead


Things have stabilized for the moment, but you're right, every thing could take a big tumble.


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 14, 2022)

dorsetknob said:


> Just Waiting for the First State sponsered/controlled C Currency to go tits-up Crystal bollocks says it will eventualy happen


That would really require the state going tits up, which given the right country, could happen, but it wouldn't really be the currencies fault.

If the state controls the chain, then you can only blame the state.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 14, 2022)

R-T-B said:


> That would really require the state going tits up, which given the right country, could happen, but it wouldn't really be the currencies fault.
> 
> If the state controls the chain, then you can only blame the state.



El Salvador comes to mind.

They don't control BTC at all, and yet they've bet their financial system on it. It seems like a stupid move to me.


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 14, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> El Salvador comes to mind.
> 
> They don't control BTC at all, and yet they've bet their financial system on it. It seems like a stupid move to me.


I was thinking more along the lines of state issued state sponsored currency stablecoins or similar, but you are correct of course.  Also the petro comes to mind.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 15, 2022)

i only found this today, but oh boy it's 6 months old, and anyone that heard this crap and has a working brain would immediately call this a Ponzi scheme.
So there is this box that does nothing, and one guy puts money, the other guy puts money, and so on 










This people are what is killing crypto. Well they and the brainless that give them money.


----------



## ThrashZone (Nov 15, 2022)

Hi,
Yep never under estimate some one else's stupidity


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 15, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> i only found this today, but oh boy it's 6 months old, and anyone that heard this crap and has a working brain would immediately call this a Ponzi scheme.
> So there is this box that does nothing, and one guy puts money, the other guy puts money, and so on
> 
> 
> ...



I heard there was an algorithm or something too complicated for mortals to understand that made it not a ponzi scheme....    /s


----------



## skates (Nov 15, 2022)

LFaWolf said:


> Of course I read the articles. Of course I know what I am talking about, because I worked in these fields. Higher interest rates should reduce money supply. They have an inverse relationship. I am not saying you are wrong, but the other guy is also not wrong. There is no clear cut answer to the question.


This argument has been going on for several thousand years now and still no clear answer after all that time.  As a dumdink, what would happen if the fed couldn't print new money for 6 months?  Apocalypse Now or something else?



RandallFlagg said:


> I heard there was an algorithm or something too complicated for mortals to understand that made it not a ponzi scheme....    /s


Now I know where my taxes went.


----------



## Vario (Nov 15, 2022)

ShiBDiB said:


> The best crypto investment right now is probably buying coinbase stock and not buying actual crypto.


Best crypto gamble.  Wouldn't hold this as an investment long term.  For all you know, coinbase is equally sleazy.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Nov 15, 2022)

skates said:


> This argument has been going on for several thousand years now and still no clear answer after all that time.  As a dumdink, what would happen if the fed couldn't print new money for 6 months?  Apocalypse Now or something else?



Also a dumdink, but a simplified article I read not long ago said that most money created isn't due to the Fed, but by regular day-to-day transactions (loans, interest, financial instruments) in the regular creation of value in goods and services.  The Fed can influence this by adjusting rates, and the Treasury can generate more by issuing bonds.


----------



## Fasola (Nov 16, 2022)

This is one hell of a rabbit hole.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 16, 2022)

Fasola said:


> This is one hell of a rabbit hole.



Time and time again, you see this incredibly wealthy, successful people going all out on something that is the biggest pile of dog shit, and i wonder how are they so successful and rich.

And sure some could trick a lot of people, but this are people that are well connected, that have research teams of specialists, and yet we have them backing charlatans, pyramid schemes, snake oil vendors, etc... and at the same time we always find out someone that isn't particularly special, not einstein level smart, not rich, don't have a team of specialists, etc.. and have called this crap out for some time.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 16, 2022)

Genesis’ Crypto-Lending Unit Is Halting Customer Withdrawals in Wake of FTX Collapse
					

The unit, known as Genesis Global Capital, serves an institutional client base and had $2.8 billion in total active loans as of the end of the third quarter of 2022.




					www.coindesk.com
				




Problems stirring up at Genesis.


----------



## Bomby569 (Nov 16, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> Genesis’ Crypto-Lending Unit Is Halting Customer Withdrawals in Wake of FTX Collapse
> 
> 
> The unit, known as Genesis Global Capital, serves an institutional client base and had $2.8 billion in total active loans as of the end of the third quarter of 2022.
> ...



_"The decision follows a punishing period for the industry after this month’s implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto companies FTX and Alameda Research. Islim said FTX’s dramatic fall had spurred withdrawal requests that exceeded Genesis’ current liquidity."_

domino effect


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 16, 2022)

More dominos :

_"BlockFi paused withdrawals and limited activity on its platform last week, saying it couldn’t operate business as usual given the uncertainty about FTX. BlockFi is now planning to lay off some of its workers while the troubled firm prepares for a possible chapter 11 itself, people familiar with the matter said."_









						BlockFi Prepares for Potential Bankruptcy as Crypto Contagion Spreads
					

BlockFi, financially entangled with the now-bankrupt FTX, is planning to lay off workers and exploring a bankruptcy filing itself, people familiar say.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 16, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> domino effect



It's likes it's 2007 all over again. Toxic assets at Bear Sterns causes problems at Lehman Brothers, causing problems at JP Morgan.

Except it's all isolated to Crypto this time.

------

Sounds like Genesis has connections to Coinbase, Grayscale (aka GBTC) and other major players.

EDIT: Here comes Gemini.









						Winklevosses’ Gemini Delays Withdrawals on Lending Program
					

Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, said redemptions by customers for its Earn program are being delayed after its partner in the product, Genesis Global, paused withdrawals on its borrowing platform amid a liquidity crunch.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Vario (Nov 17, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> Time and time again, you see this incredibly wealthy, successful people going all out on something that is the biggest pile of dog shit, and i wonder how are they so successful and rich.
> 
> And sure some could trick a lot of people, but this are people that are well connected, that have research teams of specialists, and yet we have them backing charlatans, pyramid schemes, snake oil vendors, etc... and at the same time we always find out someone that isn't particularly special, not einstein level smart, not rich, don't have a team of specialists, etc.. and have called this crap out for some time.


Not only describes crypto but Theranos as well.


----------



## 80-watt Hamster (Nov 17, 2022)

Vario said:


> Not only describes crypto but Theranos as well.



The historical examples are countless.  Everyone with a stake has an interest, whether financial or psychological, to keep the illusion going.  So it feeds on itself until outside forces inevitably locate the weakness in the structure, lean on it a little, and the whole thing collapses.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 17, 2022)

Sometimes things are exactly what they appear to be.



"The declaration made in a Delaware bankruptcy court on Thursday marks the first attempt by FTX’s new chief executive, appointed shortly before the company filed for bankruptcy, to explain what went wrong at the company. _*John J. Ray, who led the liquidation of Enron Corp.’s assets *_in the years after the company collapsed, took over as CEO last week and his first official act was to authorize the company’s bankruptcy filing, he said.

“*Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information* as occurred here,” Mr. Ray said in the court filing. “From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to *the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.*”'











						FTX’s New CEO Faults Lax Oversight in Bankruptcy Filing
					

FTX Trading’s new chief executive said lax controls over the company’s billions in cash and cryptocurrency assets under the leadership of Sam Bankman-Fried has left current management scrambling to establish just how much money the bankrupt crypto platform has today.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 17, 2022)

FTX Contagion
					

Charting the FTX collapse.




					www.mollywhite.net
				




It sounds like this chart is updating frequently. Here's what it says today.


----------



## mb194dc (Nov 17, 2022)

What a mess! Pretty incredible quotes there.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 17, 2022)

Really good diagram @dragontamer5788

Given what is coming out about how FTX was run, it's hard to imagine the incompetence that must exist in those Venture Capital and Hedge funds, and crypto exchanges.  

They obviously did no due diligence in regards to FTX.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 17, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> They obviously did no due diligence in regards to FTX.



FTX's new CEO had the following to say:



> Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here. From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.





> The Debtors did not have the type of disbursement controls that I believe are appropriate for a business enterprise. For example, employees of the FTX Group submitted payment requests through an on-line ‘chat’ platform where a disparate group of supervisors approved disbursements by responding with personalized emojis.



Note. FTX's new CEO is an expert in leading companies through bankruptcy. In particular, John J. Ray III captained *Enron* through its bankruptcy. So when this dude says "This is unprecedented", it means "This is worse than Enron".

Obviously, SBF was the previous CEO, but he doesn't have any experience navigating bankruptcy issues. FTX was forced to find an expert bankruptcy CEO, and it does seem like John Ray III is a good pick. But... Ray does not like what he sees of this company from his first day on the job.

Further notes: 



> The FTX Group did not keep appropriate books and records, or security controls, with respect to its digital assets. Mr. Bankman-Fried and [Alameda co-founder Gary] Wang controlled access to digital assets of the main businesses in the FTX Group (with the exception of LedgerX, regulated by the CFTC, and certain other regulated and/or licensed subsidiaries). Unacceptable management practices included the use of an unsecured group email account as the root user to access confidential private keys and critically sensitive data for the FTX Group companies around the world, the absence of daily reconciliation of positions on the blockchain, the use of software to conceal the misuse of customer funds, the secret exemption of Alameda from certain aspects of FTX.com’s auto-liquidation protocol, and the absence of independent governance as between Alameda (owned 90% by Mr. Bankman-Fried and 10% by Mr. Wang) and the Dotcom Silo (in which third parties had invested).



From Matt Levine (Bloomberg Columnist).


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 17, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> FTX's new CEO had the following to say:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I don't think the people 'leading' FTX knew anything.

First I saw where he was using Excel to track where FTX's money was.   One of the investments on the spreadsheet included betting on Trump's election odds..

Now we have them using chat / emoji's for payments to employees? 

This sounds like an 8th grader was running the company.

The thing that bothers me is that multiple hedge funds and other crypto exchanges invested in them.  This means they did literally zero due diligence, must be making investment decisions based on media headlines.

This doesn't even begin to rise to something like Bernie Madoff, who had elaborate and complex financials setup to obscure what he was doing.  I've seen that comparison made but it is a false one.  People can be excused for not noticing that.  

If FTX and the companies that invested in it is any reflection of what is out there in the crypto space, and god forbid anywhere else, there is far far more pain to come.


----------



## dragontamer5788 (Nov 17, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> First I saw where he was using Excel to track where FTX's money was. One of the investments on the spreadsheet included betting on Trump's election odds..



There's a line called "TRUMPLOSE" in their asset sheet. Sorry, did I say asset sheet? A glorified Excel Spreadsheet that's worse than my personal finance notebook.

I'm not sure if anyone really knows what that line means (though it has been hypothesized that its Trump's election odds / online betting market). Who knows? This whole thing is a mess. But yeah, felt like giving some context over that particular thing.

Everything here is guesswork, because FTX themselves don't understand what they've written down here.

--------

EDIT: The main issue is that FTX may have an asset sheet, but they don't actually have a liabilities sheet. They don't actually know what they owe others. So as shoddy as their "assets" sheet is, they at least have a general idea of who owes them money. I don't think anyone really knows how far-reaching this will go. Its actually a big mystery, and will remain so.


> The WRS Silo Debtors are expected to have significant liabilities arising from crypto assets deposited by customers through the FTX US platform. However, such liabilities are not reflected in the financial statements prepared while these companies were under the control of Mr. Bankman-Fried.


----------



## RandallFlagg (Nov 17, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> There's a line called "TRUMPLOSE" in their asset sheet. Sorry, did I say asset sheet? A glorified Excel Spreadsheet that's worse than my personal finance notebook.
> 
> I'm not sure if anyone really knows what that line means (though it has been hypothesized that its Trump's election odds / online betting market). Who knows? This whole thing is a mess. But yeah, felt like giving some context over that particular thing.
> 
> ...



Just to note, that Excel spreadsheet was what he did with his 'depositors' 'money'.

Could cause contagion to non crypto spaces.

Specifically from the slide you posted :











OMG LOL!!!!!!

This just keeps getting better!!!!!


*FTX in a bombshell emergency court filing Thursday said evidence suggests Bahamian regulators directed former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to gain “unauthorized access” to FTX systems to obtain digital assets belonging to the company after it had filed for bankruptcy protection.*
The filing said that Bankman-Fried transferred those assets to the custody of the Bahamian government.
The accusations were made by FTX in a motion in the United States Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. In that motion, FTX said the alleged conduct puts “In serious question” a request by Bahamian regulators for recognition as liquidators in the bankruptcy.









						FTX tells court it has evidence Sam Bankman-Fried transferred assets to Bahamas government custody after bankruptcy
					

FTX lawyers said Bahamian regulators directed Sam Bankman-Fried to transfer digital assets to the custody of the Bahamian government.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Outback Bronze (Nov 17, 2022)

RandallFlagg said:


> This sounds like an 8th grader was running the company.



Lol, sounds about right!


----------



## trickson (Nov 17, 2022)

What happened to my Crypto?

Just look at this guy would you ever loan him a penny? Somehow this stooge and his cohorts took over 32 BILLION in money they never had to begin with OMFG! 
Just goes to show you just how STUPID PEOPLE REALLY ARE!


----------



## R-T-B (Nov 18, 2022)

trickson said:


> What happened to my Crypto?
> 
> Just look at this guy would you ever loan him a penny? Somehow this stooge and his cohorts took over 32 BILLION in money they never had to begin with OMFG!
> Just goes to show you just how STUPID PEOPLE REALLY ARE!


I mean yeah, on one hand you can argue not to judge a book by it's cover, but in most "cryptobro" cases it seems not to bad a metric so far.  

That being said, there were plenty of red flags about FTX (and Mt. Gox before it) besides the owners apearance.  People are indeed willfully blind in the hopes of "getting rich quick."


----------



## Totally (Nov 18, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> Time and time again, you see this incredibly wealthy, successful people going all out on something that is the biggest pile of dog shit, and i wonder how are they so successful and rich.
> 
> And sure some could trick a lot of people, but this are people that are well connected, that have research teams of specialists, and yet we have them backing charlatans, pyramid schemes, snake oil vendors, etc... and at the same time we always find out someone that isn't particularly special, not einstein level smart, not rich, don't have a team of specialists, etc.. and have called this crap out for some time.



Those questionable people even though they know what's up are getting paid enough to look the other way a not ask questions. Case in point, take a look at Interpol's most wanted man, Jho Low, if it wasn't for a whistleblower he wouldn't have made off with just 4.6 billion USD if he didn't have the countries leader and Goldman Sachs in his pocket. This FTX scandal is no different from the hundreds of crypto scams that preceded it except this one has a face, I guess that's what makes it a scandal.


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## RandallFlagg (Nov 18, 2022)

This continues to get funnier, or worse, or something.  I don't see how FTX can even afford to pay their new CEO\bankruptcy manager anymore.  There's nothing there.


"A particularly jarring disclosure is that *the total fair value of crypto held by FTX International was just $659,000* as of the end of September, compared to claims from its founder Sam Bankman-Fried's that the company held $5.5 billion in "less liquid" crypto tokens."









						A new bankruptcy filing shows the value of FTX's crypto holdings is just $659,000, after Sam Bankman-Fried said they were worth $5.5 billion
					

FTX's new CEO John Ray III oversaw the liquidation of Enron and said: "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls."




					news.yahoo.com


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## R-T-B (Nov 18, 2022)

"less liquid" is just a word for "might be worth a ton more someday.  It's BS really.  Especially when they themselves are tanking the value that counts on.


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## trickson (Nov 18, 2022)

WOW you people just think of this for one second, Would you give this FTX money at all? and just what did anyone get from that investment? RIPPED OFF!
The guy is a THIEF nothing more than a scum bag thief!
I hope that Hell has a special hole for people like this! Sick SCUM BAG!


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## Bomby569 (Nov 18, 2022)

Just like the Luna dude, i think it was just a kid that lost any notion of reality. For crypto bros money is an abstract concept. 

But there is a lot more older people to blame for all this, they should go down with them. They didn't even had accounting, the bankruptcy lawyer is the same of the Enron case and he said he never seen anything like it.


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## Vario (Nov 18, 2022)

Here is an interview with Sam Bankman Fried from a few days ago, I don't know how anyone could read this and not get the impression he is a sociopath.








						Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself
					

The fallen crypto CEO on what went wrong, why he did what he did, and what lies he told along the way.




					www.vox.com
				



View attachment 270486


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## lexluthermiester (Nov 18, 2022)

Folks we're off-topic again. This thread is about Cryptocoin Value and Market Trends.
General discussion about Cryptocoin can be found at the link below. Please take your discussion there. Thank You.








						General Cryptocoin Discussion
					

As many threads seem to get side-tracked with general discussion about cryptocoin, we need a thread where discussion about the subject that can meander from any one aspect as the users need it too.  This is a general discussion about cryptocoin and all topics about this subject are welcome...




					www.techpowerup.com


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## R-T-B (Nov 18, 2022)

trickson said:


> WOW you people just think of this for one second, Would you give this FTX money at all?


Nope, but I do more homework then their typical customer.


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## Bomby569 (Dec 6, 2022)

more bad news for crypto value. And lending was one of the most absurd ideas the crypto bros ever had.









						Crypto lenders are suffering as bitcoin miners are unable to pay back gigantic loans
					

As miners fail to pay back loans, crypto lenders are stuck with a bunch of mining rigs as collateral.




					www.pcgamer.com


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## lexluthermiester (Dec 7, 2022)

Bomby569 said:


> more bad news for crypto value. And lending was one of the most absurd ideas the crypto bros ever had.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The values haven't changed much in the last few weeks.


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## dragontamer5788 (Dec 7, 2022)

lexluthermiester said:


> The values haven't changed much in the last few weeks.



Price hasn't changed too much. But BTC difficulty has changed.






						Difficulty - BTC.com
					






					btc.com
				




The higher the difficulty, the more electricity (and miners) it takes to make a BTC.

EDIT: looks like December 5th was the last difficulty change, downards. So its cheaper to make BTC now. Interesting... I guess miners really are going offline?


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## lexluthermiester (Dec 7, 2022)

dragontamer5788 said:


> EDIT: looks like December 5th was the last difficulty change, downards. So its cheaper to make BTC now. Interesting... I guess miners really are going offline?


That's what I'm seeing.


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## trog100 (Friday at 5:13 PM)

bitcoin thrives the rest not so much..






						91% Of Cryptos From 2014 Have Died, While Bitcoin Continues To Thrive | ZeroHedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				




trog


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## lexluthermiester (Saturday at 2:23 AM)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin thrives the rest not so much..
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Nonsense. BTC hasn't moved significantly since the crash. That's not called "thriving". It's called holding steady. Big difference there.


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## Chomiq (Saturday at 8:07 AM)

US bank Silvergate hit with $8bn in crypto withdrawals
					

The bank has had to sell $5.2bn in assets to cover two-thirds of its customers withdrawing their deposits.



					www.bbc.com
				



Ouch


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## cvaldes (Saturday at 6:00 PM)

trog100 said:


> bitcoin thrives the rest not so much..



Incorrect.

Here is a graph showing TTM of BTC (blue), the S&P 500 (red) and ETH (green).






This is a typical example of how dangerous it is to mindlessly accept random stuff posted on the Internet, in this case from a site called Zero Hedge.

Note that overall, ETH has actually kept up with BTC. In fact, ETH is far less volatile after its transition to proof-of-stake on September 6th. Other cryptotokens may not exhibit the same performance.

This is a good moment to remind thread participants that crypto isn't an island. Crypto -- especially the big tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum -- are heavily tied to the greater financial markets. Mining activities are no longer a strong influence on daily valuation for these major tokens.

Here's another chart showing TTM performance of BTC, ETH, and QLD (orange), the latter is a 2x leveraged fund tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index.





Clearly both cryptotokens follow market trends. Using a 2x or 3x leveraged fund makes the association easier to see.

As a long-term investment in January 2023, cryptotokens are poor performers.

Here's another graph of BTC (blue), ETH (green), Apple (AAPL in red), Berkshire-Hathaway Class B shares (BRK-B in light blue), and Wal-mart (WMT in purple).





Only the two non-tech bellwethers have performed well TTM. Even AAPL has underperformed the S&P 500 (see chart #1 in post 1318 above).

Cryptotokens collectively have utterly sucked as an investment instrument over the past year.


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## RandallFlagg (Saturday at 11:32 PM)

cvaldes said:


> Incorrect.
> 
> Here is a graph showing TTM of BTC (blue), the S&P 500 (red) and ETH (green).
> 
> ...



Great post, some really good comparisons there.

Something I'll add, crypto and many other financial instruments (bonds and gold) are not behaving as independently of equity markets like SP500/NASDAQ as they did long ago.

I'm not going to say anyone really *knows* why, but one idea I think is valid is that it has to do with *how* they are traded today.  Most who invest in bonds for example, do so buy buying a bond fund not the individual bonds.  Most who invest in gold, don't buy physical gold, they buy financial instruments like GLD.   

Crypto, seems to be going the same way.  More and more, people don't buy Crypto they buy a financial instrument that in some way to them represents crypto.   

Because of this, they get traded in much the same way as equities by investors and traders.   This makes the price movement patterns on these normally disconnected instruments look very similar, in shape at least if not in magnitude.


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## Vario (Sunday at 6:50 PM)

RandallFlagg said:


> Great post, some really good comparisons there.
> 
> Something I'll add, crypto and many other financial instruments (bonds and gold) are not behaving as independently of equity markets like SP500/NASDAQ as they did long ago.
> 
> ...


Hedge funds are probably using cryptocurrency indices as some kind of zero beta hedge strategy, however the resulting trades actually might induce an increase in correlation between crypto and equities.


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## lexluthermiester (Sunday at 7:37 PM)

Chomiq said:


> US bank Silvergate hit with $8bn in crypto withdrawals
> 
> 
> The bank has had to sell $5.2bn in assets to cover two-thirds of its customers withdrawing their deposits.
> ...


Ouch indeed!!


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## trog100 (Monday at 7:04 PM)

things are trending upwards.. bitcoin now at 17.3k with eth up as well.. 

trog


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## cvaldes (Monday at 9:53 PM)

trog100 said:


> things are trending upwards.. bitcoin now at 17.3k with eth up as well..
> 
> trog



Once again, BTC showing even on an intraday basis, it's following the financial markets, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Here's a chart of today's trading hours for New York financial markets including BTC (blue), the Nasdaq Composite (green), and Invesco QQQ (gold) which tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index.





When you comment about cryptotoken price changes these days, it's really just a reflection of the Nasdaq, at least for the major cryptos like Bitcoin.

The New York markets ended up mixed with the Dow 30 and S&P 500 slightly down, the Nasdaq Composite slightly up.

The big cryptos don't do their own thing anymore. They are susceptible to the same global financial pressures as the regular equity markets.


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## trog100 (Monday at 11:39 PM)

everything is trending upwards including gold which is odd..

trog


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## RandallFlagg (Tuesday at 12:39 AM)

trog100 said:


> everything is trending upwards including gold which is odd..
> 
> trog



It's really not odd.

Even bonds went up.  This is just money flowing into 'the markets'. 

I think this is because all of these markets, be it gold / silver / bitcoin or the QQQs or SPDRs or bonds via a bond fund, more and more they all trade more or less the same way.  Some symbol on a trading screen, basically. 

So when money flows 'into' markets, it flows into all of them.  The only question is what the mix is - what's getting more of the flow, what's getting less.  The shape and direction of flow is the same. 

But the size of the move, that may vary greatly, as @cvaldes  chart on post 1318 shows.  A lot of this effect shows up within an index, for example when Wal-Mart and Berkshire move with the same pattern, that is well known to be a result of the use of ETFs vs individual stock trades.   ETFs literally dwarf individual stock trades.   I think the same thing is happening with crypto and bonds.


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## trog100 (Tuesday at 10:27 AM)

the difference between risk on and risk off seems to be disappearing which is the bit i find odd.. 

trog


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## lexluthermiester (Yesterday at 5:07 AM)

trog100 said:


> the difference between risk on and risk off seems to be disappearing which is the bit i find odd..
> 
> trog


No it's not. It's still a very risky thing to invest in.


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## trog100 (Yesterday at 11:55 AM)

lexluthermiester said:


> No it's not. It's still a very risky thing to invest in.



did i say it wasnt ? he he..

trog


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## lexluthermiester (Yesterday at 6:09 PM)

trog100 said:


> did i say it wasnt ? he he..
> 
> trog


You were implying it. Not ok.


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## trog100 (Yesterday at 7:49 PM)

lexluthermiester said:


> You were implying it. Not ok.



i wasnt i was simply stating the risk on risk off differences seem to be diminishing.. or to me they do..

i would think it means nothing (less) is safe not that less things are risky..

trog


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## lexluthermiester (Today at 12:52 AM)

trog100 said:


> i wasnt i was simply stating the risk on risk off differences seem to be diminishing.. or to me they do..


Ah ok, I see what you mean. I still disagree but understand what you meant.


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## trog100 (Today at 11:34 AM)

bitcoin now up over 18K with eth near 1.4k with gold on the rise at 1885.. 

gold has always been considered risk off.. odd that its on the rise along with bitcoin.. just something i notice.. 

trog


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