Thursday, December 15th 2011
Firm Thinks More Factors Than HDD Shortage Behind Intel's Reduced Q4 Revenue Forecast
Nomura Equity Research, an investment broker, recons that factors other than, and more significant than hard disk drive (HDD) shortage caused due to the recent Thailand floods affecting HDD manufacturing, are behind Intel's reduced Q4 forecast. Earlier this week, Intel shaved off close to a billion dollars from its Q4 Revenue Guidance, leveling the blame on HDD shortages, as HDD is a near-indispensable component in manufacture and assembly of a vast majority of PCs. Nomura Equity Research thinks "weak sell-through" is that other factor.
Nomura Equity Research said "HDD shortages are a concern, but we think weak sell-through is also contributing to the $1 billion shortfall." It continues, "We see softness in China, continued demand for ARM-based more power-efficient devices, and low volumes for ultrabooks." Intel is clearly feeling the heat with depleting demand for Wintels, as entire PC form-factors are challenged by leaner, fitter computing devices such as tablets, netbooks, and smartphones driven by ARM processors are growing in demand.
Nomura adds "We would not be surprised to see below-seasonal growth in Q1 and Q2 given lack of PC catalysts (Windows 8 likely Q3 event), increasing ASP pressure, and slowing China and Europe." It concludes its report by cutting its forecast for Intel sales revenue in 2012 by $3 billion to $53.4 billion, a fall from its estimate for Intel's 2011 sales revenue of $53.8 billion.
Source:
EETimes
Nomura Equity Research said "HDD shortages are a concern, but we think weak sell-through is also contributing to the $1 billion shortfall." It continues, "We see softness in China, continued demand for ARM-based more power-efficient devices, and low volumes for ultrabooks." Intel is clearly feeling the heat with depleting demand for Wintels, as entire PC form-factors are challenged by leaner, fitter computing devices such as tablets, netbooks, and smartphones driven by ARM processors are growing in demand.
Nomura adds "We would not be surprised to see below-seasonal growth in Q1 and Q2 given lack of PC catalysts (Windows 8 likely Q3 event), increasing ASP pressure, and slowing China and Europe." It concludes its report by cutting its forecast for Intel sales revenue in 2012 by $3 billion to $53.4 billion, a fall from its estimate for Intel's 2011 sales revenue of $53.8 billion.
22 Comments on Firm Thinks More Factors Than HDD Shortage Behind Intel's Reduced Q4 Revenue Forecast
AMD produces bulldozer which becomes a sellout success :eek: and
Intel produces i5 and i7 and has revenue problems......:twitch:
Yeah baby! :D
Intel X79 LGA2011 is the problem.
x79 motheboards is By far NO NO way near of the X58 when it was Released.
The issue is not who produces more.... The issue is who makes profit.....
You say that Intel produces more chips but has problems selling them.
On the other hand AMD produces less chips but sells them all (at pretty much the same price as Intel) and makes profit (despite the fact that they are crappy,)...
or it is because they are paying girl bands to promote their chips in Asia.
Check out these youtube links (this is promotion for sandybridge) go to the end of the song where the girls sing the Intel tune.... The other link is the girls singing the song on the sandybridge unveiling......
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSQwCK_8VSM
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE-jXOVyk6s
Also, you're assuming that processors have a shelf life (like cakes and cookies), and that if they don't sell, Intel loses all the money spent in making it. That's not true. If it doesn't sell now, it will sell later, and Intel will adjust production (and introduction of new products) according to inventories.
Now you try to tell me that they are doing ok?:D
And yes, processors have a self life because when the new generation chips get out people tend to buy the new ones and not the old ones. And Intel has to sell the old ones to the big PC manufacturers at reduced prices to get rid of them. What are you talking about?
Do you think that prices of CPUs in PC shops reflect the prices that big integrators buy them?:slap:
Also in MY Managerial World if you are a million off you prediction, selling a good product, you are close to getting fired. If you are a billion off your prediction, selling a good product.........
In My Managerial World if you manage to sell-out an inferior product you are a hero (especially if the product got so much bad press). The fact that you should have produced a good product is another story....
Anyway I made a short comment..... and this has become a war of attrition.... :shadedshu
Why don't you watch the youtube videos with the Intel girlies and relax a little;)
Even if you argue that "golly, then 'three generations is the shelf life'", then that won't apply to this argument. It only talks about Q4 2011 and 2012 forecast. Plenty of time to digest any excess inventories that Intel has of the chips manufactured around this time.Again, wrong. Seldom does Intel do "clearance sales", especially with OEMs.Actually, PC shops sell "within 3 generations" CPUs at nearly the same prices they commanded when they formed Intel's "current" lineup.
intel should do a bundle deal i5 + asian girl = sold out
AMD dont seem to be producing many bulldozers 8120/8150 (maybe bad yeilds), its very hard to find any in stock as i have afew customers who want one, nobody knows exactly how many they are selling but ive never seen it so hard to find a cpu in stock, i dont think they are selling that many just not producing very many.
ive also built alot of intel i5 2500k systems in the last few months, so i dont think intel will be losing money just not making as much as they wanted.
The prices that you see in shops are not the prices that big integrators buy the chips for.
The fact that your neighborhood's PC Store has a couple of core duos and keeps its prices up awaiting for a victim is one thing. A big integrator will buy these old chips by the thousands and produce these cheap ass machines that you see costing 400 dollars. Dell won't give 300US for a Core2duo... Come on....:D
Another thing from a managers perspective... Even smaller companies than Intel DO NOT TOLERATE reduction in revenue. This is considered a failure. The company is a Billion off its sales target and you say that this will not result in a loss?... :banghead:
:shadedshu:shadedshu:shadedshu:shadedshu
Maybe many companies out there in the business are sick of intels monopoly , could be a part of it, they may be colluding to suruptitiously squeeze intel out, albeit done in such a way that its incremental and imperceptible maybe.just a thought.
He tells me that I don't know which is the difference between cookies and CPUs? He is the great analyst with the insiders knowledge? He knows how Intel operates? It is ok to be a billion off your sales target and this can be fixed by adjusting production?
No my friend it is he that he has to calm down. I am calm and drinking my coffee:D
On the other hand, your getting excited over Bulldozer getting sold out at a time Intel is reducing its forecasts (which is in no way an indication of loss), shows that you have no clue about how the supply chain or markets work. It's not that AMD is doing good at a time when Intel is not. AMD's Bulldozer volumes don't even amount to 1% of Intel's volumes. AMD's market cap isn't even a few percent that of Intel.
AMD produced very less to begin with (because of 32 nm foundry problems), sold out whatever little it produced, and got the token "sold out, hip hip hooray" distinction for people like you to get excited over.It's not just my neighbourhood store, but any major retailer in any continent.
$285~$320 /1000uq is the current channel pricing. The price Dell has to pay Intel if it wants Core 2 Duo E8600.Yeah, but those are with >3 generations old chips. Such retailers will make a killing out of 65 nm Conroe Core 2 Duo chips, those too, with E4000, low-end E6000 chips. But channel prices shoot up just one generation ahead (Wolfdale-3M and -6M).If it has orders for a specific model with Core 2 Duo, it will have to pay that much. Even today. Conventional logic doesn't apply in the channel.