Friday, October 12th 2018
Prices for DRAM and NAND flash Will Drop in 2019, DRAMeXchange Says
Good news for consumers: prices for DRAM memory and NAND flash chips will start falling in the fourth quarter "ending nine straight quarters of growth", and that downward trend will continue throughout 2019 according to DRAMeXchange. Their data shows that average DRAM price will drop by 15~20% YoY in 2019 due to several reasons. Smartphones won't see remarkable shipments next year, for example, but there is also uncertainty in server shipments and the shortage of Intel CPUs could affect notebook and PC shipments. DRAM manufacturers expect a high possibility of oversupply, and DRAM expects the annual bit output to increase by nearly 22%, with the 1X/1Y processes going mature and the wafer starts increasing.
The trend will also affect NAND flash chips, which dropped 10% in price in the third quarter and are expected to fall another 10-15% in the fourth quarter. In 2019 the price decline will be around 25-30% due to increased 3D NAND production capacity, specially since enterprise SSD suppliers will fiercely compete next year. DRAMeXchange mentions the impact of China-US trade war, and alert about the gap between the supply and demand, that "may be moderated if the NAND Flash manufacturers postpone their capacity expansion and transition to 96-layer 3D NAND devices".
Source:
DigiTimes
The trend will also affect NAND flash chips, which dropped 10% in price in the third quarter and are expected to fall another 10-15% in the fourth quarter. In 2019 the price decline will be around 25-30% due to increased 3D NAND production capacity, specially since enterprise SSD suppliers will fiercely compete next year. DRAMeXchange mentions the impact of China-US trade war, and alert about the gap between the supply and demand, that "may be moderated if the NAND Flash manufacturers postpone their capacity expansion and transition to 96-layer 3D NAND devices".
20 Comments on Prices for DRAM and NAND flash Will Drop in 2019, DRAMeXchange Says
Prices will still go down, and moving yet more manufacturing out of the US begins to look unappealing.
..should see $25-$50 off the price of 16GB, pretty soon.
I doubt DRAM or NAND is stored in huge quantities such that the NAND/DRAM makers will have trouble offloading them. They're the chip makers after all, unlike say Nvidia who contract TSMC or Sammy for bulk manufacturing of their piece of Silicon.That's a bit different, hint look for TLC & QLC.
3 rules of Capitalism101:
A. Supply & demand
B. Supply & demand
C. Supply & demand
When/if rule A fails you, please refer to rule B.
When/if rule B fails you, refer to rule C....
Yadayadayada....
Kingston, Corsair, Gskill, Adata and more are all making their DRAM modules in Taiwan, so this will have ZERO effect by any trade war between the US and China.
For demand: Elasticity of goods - not sure if its the correct term - which basically means people can still choose nót to buy something because price is too high. For consumers, DRAM is very much such an item. And even companies will postpone upgrades when and where they can if the timing can be better in the foreseeable future.
For supply: there is a much more complex chain at work here and any change will take time, but production can be adjusted to lower supply, creating relatively higher demand.
Trade tariffs are not that much of an influence until it cuts heavily into margins up to a net loss, and we know margins on DRAM are very high at the moment.
www.gamersnexus.net/industry/3368-manufacturers-on-tariff-impact-to-pc-prices
No specific mention of ram BUT there's always a domino effect. Companies don't want to lose any profits and try to make up ground where they can to keep shareholders happy. Personally I don't see memory dropping in price but we shall see.
I find that statement to be absolute bollocks there wont be any oversupply they'll just drop the rate of production to keep demand and prices high it's the law of Supply and Demand
If supply is high and demand is low increase price
If demand is high and supply is low increase price
That way it appears to be a great deal, but in reality is just more consumer milking & bilking by the greedy sob's that make the stuff...