Thursday, September 22nd 2022

Jensen Huang Tells the Media That Moore's Law is Dead

NVIDIA's CEO has gone out on a limb during a video call with the media, where he claimed that Moore's Law is Dead, in response to the high asking price for its latest graphics cards. For those not familiar with Moore's law, it's an observation by Intel's Gordon Moore that says that transistors double in density inside dense integrated circuits every two years, while at the same time, the cost of computers are halved. The follow-on to this observation is that there's also a doubling of the performance every two years, if maintaining the same cost. This part doesn't quite hold true any more, due to all major foundries having increased the cost when using their cutting edge nodes. We're also reaching a point where it's getting increasingly difficult to shrink process nodes in semiconductor fabs. However, Jensen Huang's statement has nothing to do with the actual node shrinks, which makes his statement a bit flawed.

Jensen's focus seems to be on the latter half of Moore's law, the part related to semiconductors getting cheaper, which in turn makes computers cheaper. However, this hasn't been true for some time now and Jensen's argument in this case is that NVIDIA's costs of making semiconductors have gone up. Jensen is quoted as saying "A 12-inch wafer is a lot more expensive today than it was yesterday, and it's not a little bit more expensive, it is a ton more expensive," "Moore's Law is dead … It's completely over, and so the idea that a chip is going to go down in cost over time, unfortunately, is a story of the past." What he actually meant is that we shouldn't expect semiconductors to be as cheap as they've been in the past, although part of the issue NVIDIA is having is that their products have to be produced on cutting edge notes, which cost significantly more than more mature nodes. It'll be interesting to see if AMD can deliver graphics chips and cards with a more competitive price point than NVIDIA, as that would refute some of Jensen's claims.
Sources: Barron's, MarketWatch
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94 Comments on Jensen Huang Tells the Media That Moore's Law is Dead

#76
error1984
THU31I never had a problem with niche top-end parts existing. You had cards with two GPUs, then you had Titans. But those cards were completely disconnected from the main line-up. The x80 was always considered the flagship and it was always within reach for enthusiasts.

Intel had the same thing. They used to have Extreme Edition CPUs for $1000 on mainstream sockets. Then they limited this to their HEDT platforms. And then AMD killed Intel's HEDT, as they could barely keep up in the mainstream segment.

But whatever you might want to say about Intel, they have kept their entry-level and mainstream prices on the same level for ages. Ever since Core 2 Duo, you could always buy a CPU based on the newest architecture under $200, even when AMD had nothing.
And you cannot say this about AMD. It took 1.5 years for Zen 3 to go under $200. And it looks like Zen 4 will be repeating this.
16 years of inflation and $200 still buys you a CPU that is suitable for high-framerate gaming and decent productivity.

But with Ada Lovelace, the entire initial line-up has to be considered niche and out of reach.
yep that's why my next build will be also intel. I wish AMD well in gpu market but I won't be supporting them in cpu segment. Back in the day AMD was king of cpu budget but now when they are in the game they simply forget about low mid range users.
Posted on Reply
#77
Athlonite

[URL='https://www.techpowerup.com/299159/jensen-huang-tells-the-media-that-moores-law-is-dead']Jensen Huang Tells the Media[/URL]

Posted on Reply
#78
mplayerMuPDF
Athlonite

[URL='https://www.techpowerup.com/299159/jensen-huang-tells-the-media-that-moores-law-is-dead']Jensen Huang Tells the Media[/URL]

starts at $10,000 USD :roll:
Posted on Reply
#79
Lei
AD102 has 76 billion transistors...

Gordon Moore: am i a joke to you?
Posted on Reply
#80
AusWolf
Athlonite

[URL='https://www.techpowerup.com/299159/jensen-huang-tells-the-media-that-moores-law-is-dead']Jensen Huang Tells the Media[/URL]

And the prices:
RTX 4090: $1,599
RTX 4080 16 GB: $1,199
RTX 4080 12 GB: $899
RTX 4080 8 GB: $849
RTX 4080 4 GB: $799.

The ultra low-end RTX 4070 2 GB GDDR5 will come out later at an MSRP of $699.
Posted on Reply
#82
Aquinus
Resident Wat-man
LeiLad, are you on Dopamine?



www.nvidia.com/en-gb/geforce/graphics-cards/40-series/rtx-4080/
Those prices are likely VAT included for the GBP prices. The United States doesn't have a VAT and some states like mine (New Hampshire,) have no sales tax whatsoever. Companies in the US also don't tend to roll sales tax into the price of the product and calculate it at time of sale since it's not consistent across the US and our sales taxes tend to be far less than the VAT in the UK. With that said, take the 1199 USD. It might be 1098 GBP, but if you apply a 20% VAT to that, you're at 1317 GBP, which is a heck of a lot closer to 1269 GBP.
Posted on Reply
#83
Athlonite
Buying new hardware like this here in Gougelandastan is as painful as being gang raped by 20 elephants whilst being mugged by a group of silverback gorillas ............ Now where did I put that 20lt bucket of lube and my credit card
Posted on Reply
#84
Lei
AquinusThose prices are likely VAT included for the GBP prices. The United States doesn't have a VAT and some states like mine (New Hampshire,) have no sales tax whatsoever. Companies in the US also don't tend to roll sales tax into the price of the product and calculate it at time of sale since it's not consistent across the US and our sales taxes tend to be far less than the VAT in the UK. With that said, take the 1199 USD. It might be 1098 GBP, but if you apply a 20% VAT to that, you're at 1317 GBP, which is a heck of a lot closer to 1269 GBP.
Basically Jensen came and announced nothing below 1000 bucks.
And on Nvidia website 4090 page there's a video showing cyberpunk running 22fps with rt on and dlss off

We have 76 billion transistors running 450 watts at 1600$ (2000$) giving us 22 frames. Ok case closed, Moore's law is dead as dodo.
Posted on Reply
#86
SOAREVERSOR
THU31I never had a problem with niche top-end parts existing. You had cards with two GPUs, then you had Titans. But those cards were completely disconnected from the main line-up. The x80 was always considered the flagship and it was always within reach for enthusiasts.

Intel had the same thing. They used to have Extreme Edition CPUs for $1000 on mainstream sockets. Then they limited this to their HEDT platforms. And then AMD killed Intel's HEDT, as they could barely keep up in the mainstream segment.

But whatever you might want to say about Intel, they have kept their entry-level and mainstream prices on the same level for ages. Ever since Core 2 Duo, you could always buy a CPU based on the newest architecture under $200, even when AMD had nothing.
And you cannot say this about AMD. It took 1.5 years for Zen 3 to go under $200. And it looks like Zen 4 will be repeating this.
16 years of inflation and $200 still buys you a CPU that is suitable for high-framerate gaming and decent productivity.

But with Ada Lovelace, the entire initial line-up has to be considered niche and out of reach.
There's a reality most don't want to face. PC gaming is moving into an ultra high end niche if you want your own hardware. The rest will be on SOCs and APUs and paying for cloud services. Say 100 a month for a 1080p, 60fps mid details service, go up to 300 for a 4k 10hz high details. That is the future. Everyone on the selling side keeps saying "we're going cloud" and everyone on the buying side keeps saying it won't happen. We saw the same shit with steam. This is capitalism, the seller is always right and always wins. The consumer is just a cow to be milked and has no rights. Free market baby!
Posted on Reply
#87
AusWolf
SOAREVERSORThere's a reality most don't want to face. PC gaming is moving into an ultra high end niche if you want your own hardware. The rest will be on SOCs and APUs and paying for cloud services. Say 100 a month for a 1080p, 60fps mid details service, go up to 300 for a 4k 10hz high details. That is the future. Everyone on the selling side keeps saying "we're going cloud" and everyone on the buying side keeps saying it won't happen. We saw the same shit with steam. This is capitalism, the seller is always right and always wins. The consumer is just a cow to be milked and has no rights. Free market baby!
The seller is only right if people buy. With Steam, you're right. We bought into it, now we have it. With high-end graphics cards, maybe. We'll see how popular the GeForce 4000-series will be. But with cloud gaming? Nah... nobody buys into that crap.
Posted on Reply
#88
ARF
SOAREVERSORThere's a reality most don't want to face. PC gaming is moving into an ultra high end niche if you want your own hardware. The rest will be on SOCs and APUs and paying for cloud services. Say 100 a month for a 1080p, 60fps mid details service, go up to 300 for a 4k 10hz high details. That is the future. Everyone on the selling side keeps saying "we're going cloud" and everyone on the buying side keeps saying it won't happen. We saw the same shit with steam. This is capitalism, the seller is always right and always wins. The consumer is just a cow to be milked and has no rights. Free market baby!
Dreams are for free! :D :D 100 bucks A MONTH? for that crap? No, thanks..
Posted on Reply
#89
THU31
Cloud gaming is kind of a dream for me. But it has been for a long time and not much has changed. The biggest advantage from my perspective - no extra heat. I could play on a 12900K with a 4090 and I would chill with my device just decoding a video stream. No hassling with drivers or other issues either.

That is definitely a convenient pick up and play experience. GeForce Now is really not bad. The latency is sometimes comparable to playing locally on a console. I really think we will get there one day. And with the perspective of paying thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades, I could be convinced.
Posted on Reply
#90
ARF
THU31Cloud gaming is kind of a dream for me. But it has been for a long time and not much has changed. The biggest advantage from my perspective - no extra heat. I could play on a 12900K with a 4090 and I would chill with my device just decoding a video stream. No hassling with drivers or other issues either.

That is definitely a convenient pick up and play experience. GeForce Now is really not bad. The latency is sometimes comparable to playing locally on a console. I really think we will get there one day. And with the perspective of paying thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades, I could be convinced.
Thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades? NO, thank you. My budget is 6 or 7 hundreds max..
Posted on Reply
#91
stimpy88
Moore's law is dead, because nGreedia killed it.
Posted on Reply
#92
Lei
ARFThousands of dollars for GPU upgrades? NO, thank you. My budget is 6 or 7 hundreds max..
You can get a used 3090 that is cheaper and faster than 4080-12
Or get 3080ti with your budget.
Posted on Reply
#93
Unregistered
THU31Cloud gaming is kind of a dream for me. But it has been for a long time and not much has changed. The biggest advantage from my perspective - no extra heat. I could play on a 12900K with a 4090 and I would chill with my device just decoding a video stream. No hassling with drivers or other issues either.

That is definitely a convenient pick up and play experience. GeForce Now is really not bad. The latency is sometimes comparable to playing locally on a console. I really think we will get there one day. And with the perspective of paying thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades, I could be convinced.
I'd never be able to get onboard with that - being dependent upon a corporation to provide the processing power plus delivering it over the net...no thanks. Like with television streaming, you really make yourself vulnerable to letting other people / companies just take your stuff away for whatever reason.

Even if it costs more money, I'd pay it to maintain my own hardware (remember there's always ebay with used gear which I have taken advantage of many times and will continue to do as I will not pay Jensen's ridiculous prices - I haven't bought a 'new' NVidia video card since early 2017). Heck, I built my own onsite Plex server to stream media so that I'm not in any way dependent on streaming services in the event they decide to remove or modify content that I don't authorize.

Sometimes maintaining your freedom is a little more work, but it's absolutely worth it being able to give streaming services the middle finger when they do something that pisses you off. If you're here on TPU, chances are you're smart enough to build your own rigs and the like. I have faith in you. :)
Posted on Edit | Reply
#94
NoneRain
Everyone here puting hopes in AMD... keep expectations low, boys.
Anyway, NVIDIA will continue doing the hell they want cuz consumers (us) keep paying them for that.
Posted on Reply
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