TrendForce predicts a significant rise in mobile DRAM and NAND Flash (eMMC/UFS) prices for the first quarter of 2024, with an expected seasonal increase of 18-23%. This surge could be further amplified in a market dominated by a few major players or if brand clients resort to panic buying under pressure.

Observations for 1Q24 indicate steady production planning by Chinese smartphone OEMs. A clear rise in memory prices is driving buyers to actively increase their purchasing efforts as they aim to establish secure and competitively priced inventory levels.TrendForce further points out that the smartphone market has often been an early indicator of economic downturns, with buyers and sellers continuously adjusting their inventories in the supply chain. Yet, as stockpiles reach their lowest points and the impact of reduced manufacturing persists, a robust rise in smartphone memory prices is set in motion.

All in all, the onset of 2024 will likely see memory prices rising higher than other sectors. This escalation—fueled by sustained demand from clients and the slow operational scale-up by manufacturers—is expected to widen the supply-demand gap. Memory prices are anticipated to be the leading factor in this upward trend for the season.