In 2024, the tech industry remains steadfastly focused on AI, with the continued rollout of advanced AI chips leading to significant enhancements in processing speeds. TrendForce posits that this advancement is set to drive growth in both DRAM and NAND Flash across various AI applications, including smartphones, servers, and notebooks. The server sector is expected to see the most significant growth, with content per box for server DRAM projected to rise by 17.3% annually, while enterprise SSDs are forecast to increase by 13.2%. The market penetration rate for AI smartphones and AI PCs is expected to experience noticeable growth in 2025 and is anticipated to further drive the average content per box upward.

Looking first at smartphones, despite chipmakers focusing on improving processing performance, the absence of new AI functionalities has somewhat constrained the impact of AI. Memory prices plummeted in 2023 due to oversupply, making lower-priced options attractive and leading to a 17.5% increase in average DRAM capacity and a 19.2% increase in NAND Flash capacity per smartphone. However, with no new applications expected in 2024, the growth rate in content per box for both DRAM and NAND Flash in smartphones is set to slow down, estimated at 14.1% and 9.3%, respectively.

In addition to the 37 Gbps GDDR7 memory, Samsung Electronics prepares to showcase several other memory innovations at the 2024 IEEE-SSCC as compiled by VideoCardz. To begin with, the company is showcasing a new 280-layer 3D QLC NAND flash memory in the 1 Tb density, enabling next generation of mainstream SSDs and smartphone storage. This chip offers an areal density of 28.5 Gb/mm², and a speed of 3.2 GB/s. To put this into perspective, the fastest 3D NAND flash types powering the current crop of flagship NVMe SSDs rely on 2.4 GB/s of I/O data rates.

Next up, is a new generation DDR5 memory chip offers data rates of DDR5-8000 with a density of 32 Gbit (4 GB). This chip uses a symmetric-mosaic DRAM cell architecture, and is built on a 5th generation 10 nm class foundry node Samsung optimized for DRAM products. What's impressive about this chip is that it will allow PC memory vendors to build 32 GB and 48 GB DIMMs in single-rank configuration with DDR5-8000 speeds; as well as 64 GB and 96 GB DIMMs in dual-rank configuration (impressive, provided your platform can play well with DDR5-8000 in dual-rank).

SK hynix Inc. announced today that it recorded an operating profit of 346 billion won in the fourth quarter of last year amid a recovery of the memory chip market, marking the first quarter of profit following four straight quarters of losses. The company posted revenues of 11.31 trillion won, operating profit of 346 billion won (operating profit margin at 3%), and net loss of 1.38 trillion won (net profit margin at negative 12%) for the three months ended December 31, 2023. (Based on K-IFRS)

SK hynix said that the overall memory market conditions improved in the last quarter of 2023 with demand for AI server and mobile applications increasing and average selling price (ASP) rising. "We recorded the first quarterly profit in a year following efforts to focus on profitability," it said. The financial results of the last quarter helped narrow the operating loss for the entire year to 7.73 trillion won (operating profit margin at negative 24%) and net loss to 9.14 trillion won (with net profit margin at negative 28%). The revenues were 32.77 trillion won.

TrendForce's latest analysis reveals that the downswing of DRAM contract prices, which had lasted for eight consecutive quarters since 4Q21, was finally reversed in 4Q23. Likewise, NAND Flash rebounded in 3Q23 after four quarters of decline. The persistence of this rally in memory prices during 2024 will largely hinge on suppliers' ongoing and effective control over their capacity utilization rates.

According to TrendForce Senior Research Vice President, Avril Wu, the first quarter of this year is already shaping up to be a season of growth, with TrendForce confirming its initial projections: a hike of around 13-18% QoQ for DRAM contract prices and a hike of 18-23% for NAND Flash contract prices. Despite a generally conservative outlook for overall market demand in 2Q24, suppliers in both DRAM and NAND Flash markets have begun raising their capacity utilization rates since the end of 4Q23. Furthermore, NAND Flash buyers are anticipated to complete their inventory restocking in advance in 1Q24. Due to the rise in capacity utilization rates and earlier restocking efforts, leading to a more moderated QoQ price increase of 3-8% for both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices for 2Q24.

Worldwide semiconductor revenue in 2023 totaled $533 billion, a decrease of 11.1% from 2022, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

"While the cyclicality in the semiconductor industry was present again in 2023, the market suffered a difficult year with memory revenue recording one of its worst declines in history," said Alan Priestley, VP Analyst at Gartner. "The underperforming market also negatively impacted several semiconductor vendors. Only 9 of the top 25 semiconductor vendors posted revenue growth in 2023, with 10 experiencing double-digit declines."

The combined semiconductor revenue of the top 25 semiconductor vendors declined 14.1% in 2023, accounting for 74.4% of the market, down from 77.2% in 2022.

In a surprising turn of events, SK Hynix has hinted at the possibility of the Compression Attached Memory Module (CAMM) standard, initially designed for laptops, being introduced to desktop PCs. This revelation came from a comment made by an SK Hynix representative at the CES 2024 in Las Vegas for the Korean tech media ITSubIssub. According to the SK Hynix representative, the first implementation is underway, but there are no specific details. CAMM, an innovative memory standard developed by Dell in 2022, was certified to replace SO-DIMM as the official standard for laptop memory. However, the transition to desktop PCs could significantly disrupt the desktop memory market. The CAMM modules, unlike the vertical DRAM sticks currently in use, are horizontal and are screwed into a socket. This design change would necessitate a complete overhaul of the desktop motherboard layout.

The thin, flat design of the CAMM modules could also limit the number that can be installed on an ATX board. However, the desktop version of the standard CAMM2 was announced by JEDEC just a month ago. It is designed for DDR5 memory, but it is expected to become mainstream with the introduction of DDR6 around 2025. While CAMM allows for higher speeds and densities for mobile memory, its advantages for desktops over traditional memory sticks are yet to be fully understood. Although low-power CAMM modules could offer energy savings, this is typically more relevant for mobile devices than desktops. As we move towards DDR6 and DDR7, more information about CAMM for desktops will be needed to understand its potential benefits. JEDEC's official words on the new standard indicate that "DDR5 CAMM2s are intended for performance notebooks and mainstream desktops, while LPDDR5/5X CAMM2s target a broader range of notebooks and certain server market segments." So, we can expect to see CAMM2 in both desktops and some server applications.

Microsoft has reportedly set 16 GB as the minimum system requirement for AI PCs, a TrendForce market research report finds. To say that Microsoft has a pivotal role to play in PC hardware specs is an understatement. This year sees the introduction of the first "AI PCs," or PCs with on-device AI acceleration for several new features native to Windows 11 23H2, mainly Microsoft Copilot. From the looks of it, Copilot is receiving the highest corporate attention from Microsoft, as the company looks to integrate the AI chatbot that automates and generates work, into the mainstream PC. In fact, Microsoft is even pushing for a dedicated Copilot button on PC keyboards along the lines of the key that brings up the Start menu. The company's biggest move with Copilot will be the 2024 introduction of Copilot Pro, an AI assistant integrated with Office and 365, which the company plans to sell on a subscription basis alone.

Besides cloud-based acceleration, Microsoft's various AI features will rely on some basic hardware specs for local acceleration. One of them of course is the NPU, with Intel's AI Boost and AMD's Ryzen AI being introduced with their latest mobile processors. The other requirement will be memory. AI acceleration is a highly memory sensitive operation, and LLMs require a sizable amount of fast frequent-access memory. So Microsoft arrived at 16 GB as the bare minimum amount of memory for not just native acceleration, but also cloud-based Copilot AI features to work. This should see the notebooks of 2024 set 16 GB as their baseline memory specs; and for commercial notebooks to scale up to 32 GB or even 64 GB, depending on organizational requirements. The development bodes particularly well for the DRAM industry.

TrendForce reports that the DRAM contract prices are estimated to increase by approximately 13-18% in 1Q24 with mobile DRAM leading the surge. It appears that due to the unclear demand outlook for the entire year of 2024, manufacturers believe that sustained production cuts are necessary to maintain the supply-demand balance in the memory industry.

PC DRAM: The market is buzzing with unfilled DDR5 orders, while savvy buyers brace for a continued surge in DDR4 prices, keeping procurement engines running. This trend, however, is shadowed by a gradual industry pivot toward DDR5, casting uncertainty over the expansion of DDR4 bit procurement volumes. Despite this, both DDR4 and DDR5 prices have yet to hit the target set by manufacturers, and buyers seem ready to ride the wave of price hikes into 1Q24. This sets the stage for an estimated 10-15% in PC DRAM contract prices, with DDR5 poised to take the lead over DDR4 in this pricing rally.

Global semiconductor capacity is expected to increase 6.4% in 2024 to top the 30 million *wafers per month (wpm) mark for the first time after rising 5.5% to 29.6 wpm in 2023, SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report.

The 2024 growth will be driven by capacity increases in leading-edge logic and foundry, applications including generative AI and high-performance computing (HPC), and the recovery in end-demand for chips. The capacity expansion slowed in 2023 due to softening semiconductor market demand and the resulting inventory correction.

Rambus Inc., a premier chip and silicon IP provider making data faster and safer, today announced the availability of its state-of-the-art Gen 4 DDR5 Registering Clock Driver (RCD) which began sampling to the major DDR5 memory module (RDIMM) manufacturers in the fourth quarter of 2023. The Rambus Gen 4 RCD boosts the data rate to 7200 MT/s, setting a new benchmark for performance and enabling a 50% increase in memory bandwidth over today's 4800 MT/s DDR5 module solutions. It supports the rapid pace of server main memory performance improvements to meet the demands of generative AI and other advanced data center workloads.

"With memory being an essential enabler of server performance, the need for greater memory bandwidth continues its meteoric rise driven by demanding workloads like generative AI," said Sean Fan, chief operating officer at Rambus. "The Rambus Gen 4 DDR5 RCD is the latest demonstration of our commitment to providing leadership products ahead of the market need to support our customers' current and planned server platforms."

Apple has been experimenting with Large Language Models (LLMs) that power most of today's AI applications. The company wants these LLMs to serve the users best and deliver them efficiently, which is a difficult task as they require a lot of resources, including compute and memory. Traditionally, LLMs have required AI accelerators in combination with large DRAM capacity to store model weights. However, Apple has published a paper that aims to bring LLMs to devices with limited memory capacity. By storing LLMs on NAND flash memory (regular storage), the method involves constructing an inference cost model that harmonizes with the flash memory behavior, guiding optimization in two critical areas: reducing the volume of data transferred from flash and reading data in larger, more contiguous chunks. Instead of storing the model weights on DRAM, Apple wants to utilize flash memory to store weights and only pull them on-demand to DRAM once it is needed.

Two principal techniques are introduced within this flash memory-informed framework: "windowing" and "row-column bundling." These methods collectively enable running models up to twice the size of the available DRAM, with a 4-5x and 20-25x increase in inference speed compared to native loading approaches on CPU and GPU, respectively. Integrating sparsity awareness, context-adaptive loading, and a hardware-oriented design pave the way for practical inference of LLMs on devices with limited memory, such as SoCs with 8/16/32 GB of available DRAM. Especially with DRAM prices outweighing NAND Flash, setups such as smartphone configurations could easily store and inference LLMs with multi-billion parameters, even if the DRAM available isn't sufficient. For a more technical deep dive, read the paper on arXiv here.

Phison Electronics Corp., a global leader in NAND flash controller and storage solutions, today announced the company's predictions for 2024 trends in NAND flash infrastructure deployment. The company predicts that rapid proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies will continue apace, with PCIe 5.0-based infrastructure providing high-performance, sustainable support for AI workload consistency as adoption rapidly expands. PCIe 5.0 NAND flash solutions will be at the core of a well-balanced hardware ecosystem, with private AI deployments such as on-premise large language models (LLMs) driving significant growth in both everyday AI and the infrastructure required to support it.

"We are moving past initial excitement over AI toward wider everyday deployment of the technology. In these configurations, high-quality AI output must be achieved by infrastructure designed to be secure, while also being affordable. The organizations that leverage AI to boost productivity will be incredibly successful," said Sebastien Jean, CTO, Phison US. "Building on the widespread proliferation of AI applications, infrastructure providers will be responsible for making certain that AI models do not run up against the limitations of memory - and NAND flash will become central to how we configure data center architectures to support today's developing AI market while laying the foundation for success in our fast-evolving digital future."

TrendForce predicts a significant rise in mobile DRAM and NAND Flash (eMMC/UFS) prices for the first quarter of 2024, with an expected seasonal increase of 18-23%. This surge could be further amplified in a market dominated by a few major players or if brand clients resort to panic buying under pressure.

Observations for 1Q24 indicate steady production planning by Chinese smartphone OEMs. A clear rise in memory prices is driving buyers to actively increase their purchasing efforts as they aim to establish secure and competitively priced inventory levels.

JEDEC Solid State Technology Association, the global leader in the development of standards for the microelectronics industry, today announced the publication of JESD318: Compression Attached Memory Module (CAMM2) Common Standard. This groundbreaking standard defines the electrical and mechanical requirements for both Double Data Rate, Synchronous DRAM Compression-Attached Memory Modules (DDR5 SDRAM CAMM2s) and Low Power Double Data Rate, Synchronous DRAM Compression-Attached Memory Modules (LPDDR5/5X SDRAM CAMM2s) in a single, comprehensive document. JESD318 CAMM2 is available for download from the JEDEC website.

DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X CAMM2s cater to distinct use cases. DDR5 CAMM2s are intended for performance notebooks and mainstream desktops, while LPDDR5/5X CAMM2s target a broader range of notebooks and certain server market segments.

TrendForce investigations reveal a significant leap in the DRAM industry for 3Q23, with total revenues soaring to US$13.48 billion—marking 18% QoQ growth. This surge is attributed to a gradual resurgence in demand, prompting buyers to re-energize their procurement activities. Looking ahead to Q4, while suppliers are firmly set on price hikes, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by approximately 13-18%, demand recovery will not be as robust as in previous peak seasons. Overall, while there is demand for stockpiling, procurement for the server sector remains tentative due to high inventory levels, suggesting limited growth in DRAM industry shipments for Q4.

Three major manufacturers witnessed Q3 revenue growth. Samsung's revenue increased by about 15.9% to US$5.25 billion thanks to stable demand for high-capacity products fueled by AI advancements and the rollout of its 1alpha nm DDR5. SK hynix showcased the most notable growth among manufacturers with a 34.4% increase, reaching about US$4.626 billion and significantly narrowing its market share gap with Samsung to less than 5%. Micron's revenue rose by approximately 4.2% to US$3.075 billion—despite a slight drop in ASP—supported by an upswing in demand and shipment volumes.

ASUS today announced that an international group of elite overclockers has set nine world records and achieved sixteen first-place finishes in a variety of performance benchmarks with ASUS Pro WS WRX90E-SAGE SE and ASUS Pro WS TRX50-SAGE WIFI workstation motherboards. The motherboards leveraged AMD Ryzen Threadripper PRO 7000 WX-Series and AMD Ryzen Threadripper 7000 series processors which featured up to 96 cores and 192 threads. The group of overclockers included Der8auer, Elmor, Massman, OGS, Safedisk, Seby and Shamino.

Ready for CPU and memory overclocking
For AMD Threadripper 7000 series workstations and high-end desktop (HEDT) models, AMD offers CPU and DRAM overclocking options. To fully leverage the performance of the AMD processors, ASUS has incorporated an innovative dual power supply design on Pro WS WRX90E-SAGE SE and Pro WS TRX50-SAGE WIFI motherboards. Along with robust power delivery and advanced cooling modules, these boards exhibit rock-solid stability during overclocking.

T-FORCE, the gaming brand of the leading memory and storage provider Team Group Inc., continues to push the boundaries of product development. Today, T-FORCE is launching four new gaming SSDs, the T-FORCE G70, G70 PRO, G50, and G50 PRO, which all use the PCIe Gen 4x4 interface. The SSDs feature international manufacturer InnoGrit's controller, which provides outstanding stability.

The G70, G50, and their PRO variants are available in the M.2-2280 form factor and come with patented ultra-thin graphene heat sinks. The G70 PRO also comes with an aluminium alloy heatsink, giving users an additional cooling option. Since every SSD cooling module in this series is compatible with the PS5 SSD expansion slot, both PC and console gamers alike can enjoy the high performance of these brand-new PCIe 4.0 SSDs. The T-FORCE G70 and G70 PRO SSDs have read speeds of up to 7000 MB/s, while the G50 and G50 PRO SSDs can clock up to 5000 MB/s. The T-FORCE G70 and G50 SSDs support SLC cache technology, and their PRO variants support both DRAM and SLC caching, giving players options to fit their needs. All four M.2 2280 SSDs use controllers produced by international manufacturer InnoGrit, which provide excellent stability and peace of mind for gamers.

International Data Corporation (IDC) has upgraded its Semiconductor Market Outlook by calling a bottom and return to growth that accelerates next year. IDC raised its September 2023 revenue outlook from $518.8 billion to $526.5 billion in a new forecast. Revenue expectations for 2024 were also raised from $625.9 billion to $632.8 billion as IDC believes the U.S. market will remain resilient from a demand standpoint and China will begin recovering by the second half of 2024 (2H24).

IDC sees better semiconductor growth visibility as the long inventory correction subsides in two of the largest market segments: PCs and smartphones. Automotive and Industrials elevated inventory levels are expected to return to normal levels in 2H24 as electrification continues to drive semiconductor content over the next decade. Technology and large flagship product introductions will drive more semiconductor content and value across market segments in 2024 through 2026, including the introduction of AI PCs and AI Smartphones next year and a much-needed improvement in memory ASPs and DRAM bit volume.

SK hynix Inc. announced today that it has started supplying its customers with 16 gigabyte (GB) packages of Low Power Double Data Rate 5 Turbo (LPDDR5T), the fastest mobile DRAM available today that can transfer 9.6 gigabits per second (Gbps). Since the successful development of its LPDDR5T in January, SK hynix has been preparing to commercialize the product by conducting performance verification with global mobile application processor (AP) manufacturers.

SK hynix explained that LPDDR5T is the optimal memory to maximize the performance of smartphones, with the highest speed ever achieved. The company also emphasized that it would continue to expand the application range of this product and lead the generation shift in the mobile DRAM sector. The LPDDR5T 16 GB package operates in the ultra-low voltage range of 1.01 to 1.12 V set by the Joint Electron Device Engineering Council (JEDEC), and can process 77 GB of data per second, which is equivalent to transferring 15 full high-definition (FHD) movies in one second.

Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU), today demonstrated its industry leadership by announcing its 32Gb monolithic die-based 128 GB DDR5 RDIMM memory featuring best-in-class performance of up to 8000 MT/s to support data center workloads today and into the future. These high-capacity, high-speed memory modules are engineered to meet the performance and data-handling needs of a wide range of mission-critical applications in data center and cloud environments, including artificial intelligence (AI), in-memory databases (IMDBs) and efficient processing for multithreaded, multicore count general compute workloads.

Powered by Micron's industry-leading 1β (1-beta) technology, the 32Gb DDR5 DRAM die-based 128 GB DDR5 RDIMM memory delivers the following enhancements over competitive 3DS through-silicon via (TSV) products:

• more than 45% improved bit density
• up to 24% improved energy efficiency
• up to 16% lower latency
• up to a 28% improvement in AI training performance

Thanks to the TMTPost interview with the Global Vice President and China President of ASML, Shen Bo, the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer has revealed that around 1,400 of its deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography and metrology machines are currently installed in China. The company is expected to achieve a global output of 600 DUV equipment units by the end of 2025. Shen Bo stated that the company aims to install 500-600 units of DUV machinery in China by late 2025 or early 2026. The growth in ASML's Chinese revenues was notably high, with China contributing 46% of the company's system sales in 3Q 2023, representing an 82% revenue increase from the previous quarter.

China plans to build 25 12-inch wafer fabs in the next five years, covering logic wafers, DRAM, and MEMS production. ASML currently has a substantial presence in China, with 16 offices, 12 warehouses, distribution centers, development centers, training centers, and maintenance centers. The company employs over 1,600 people for its China operations. Despite the export restrictions imposed by the US government, ASML anticipates that the new measures will have little impact on its financial outlook for 2023 as it strives to meet the growing demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment in the global market.

Kingston Technology, a world leader in memory products and technology solutions, today announced it has been ranked top third-party DRAM module supplier in the world, according to the latest rankings by revenue from analyst firm TrendForce. Kingston retains its number 1 position with an estimated 78.12% market share on $13.5 billion (USD) revenue. TrendForce states DRAM module sales in 2022 saw a 4.6% YoY decline across the industry. Kingston's revenue showed a slight decrease but held its position as the global leader for the 20th consecutive year.

According to the report, the world's top five memory module houses accounted for 90% of total sales in 2022 with Kingston maintaining its dominant market share of 78.12%. Consumer buying trends for electronic products took a hit from high inflation but Kingston's robust brand scale along with its comprehensive product supply chain limited its decline, keeping it firmly at the top of market share rankings.

Samsung Electronics today reported financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023. Total consolidated revenue was KRW 67.40 trillion, a 12% increase from the previous quarter, mainly due to new smartphone releases and higher sales of premium display products. Operating profit rose sequentially to KRW 2.43 trillion based on strong sales of flagship models in mobile and strong demand for displays, as losses at the Device Solutions (DS) Division narrowed.

The Memory Business reduced losses sequentially as sales of high valued-added products and average selling prices somewhat increased. Earnings in system semiconductors were impacted by a delay in demand recovery for major applications, but the Foundry Business posted a new quarterly high for new backlog from design wins. The mobile panel business reported a significant increase in earnings on the back of new flagship model releases by major customers, while the large panel business narrowed losses in the quarter. The Device eXperience (DX) Division achieved solid results due to robust sales of premium smartphones and TVs. Revenue at the Networks Business declined in major overseas markets as mobile operators scaled back investments.

Montage Technology, a leading data processing and interconnect IC company, today announced it has taken the lead in trial production of the 3rd-generation DDR5 Registering Clock Driver (RCD03) designed for use in DDR5 RDIMMs. With its blazingly fast 6400 MT/s data rate, the RCD03 sets a new bar for DDR5 memory performance in upcoming server platforms. It unlocks dramatic capacity, bandwidth, and latency improvements to meet the growing demands of data center, cloud, and AI applications.

The RCD03 marks a major advancement in Montage's continued role as an innovator driving rapid DDR5 developments. This chip achieves a 14.3% speed increase over the 2nd-gen DDR5 RCD and a 33.3% increase over the 1st--gen, making it one of the fastest DDR5 memory interface solutions available today.

SK hynix Inc., today reported the financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023. The company recorded revenues of 9.066 trillion won, operating losses of 1.792 trillion won and net losses of 2.185 trillion won in the three-month period. The operating and net margins were a negative 20% and 24%, respectively. After bottoming out in the first quarter, the business has been on a steady recovery track, helped by growing demand for products such as high-performance memory chips, the company said.

"Revenues grew 24%, while operating losses narrowed 38%, compared with the previous quarter, thanks to strong demand for high-performance mobile flagship products and HBM3, a key product for AI applications, and high-capacity DDR5," the company said, adding that a turnaround of the DRAM business following two quarters of losses is particularly hopeful. SK hynix attributed the growth in sales to increased shipments of both DRAM and NAND and a rise in the average selling price.